tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/hdp-21519/articlesHDP – The Conversation2017-05-05T15:50:17Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/764252017-05-05T15:50:17Z2017-05-05T15:50:17ZKurds brace for an uncertain future in post-referendum Turkey<p>Turkey is still taking stock of its <a href="https://theconversation.com/erdogan-declares-victory-in-his-pursuit-of-one-man-rule-76032">referendum</a> on sweeping constitutional reforms, which delivered a crucial victory for the president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan – albeit under highly contested circumstances. </p>
<p>The anti-Erdoğan “No” camp, led by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Kurdish-led, left-leaning People’s Democracy Party (HDP), <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/chp-blasts-election-board-referendum-result-170417034950684.html">claim</a> that about 1.5m ballots in favour of “Yes” were counted despite having no official stamp, which should have rendered them invalid. But their complaints have failed to overturn the result, and the new political reality is taking shape. Turkey’s parliamentary system will be restructured, greatly enhancing Erdoğan’s power.</p>
<p>The new “super-presidency” system is the ultimate realisation of the “New Turkey” rhetoric <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/08/turkey-erdogan-new-turkey-religious-conservatives.html">long propagated</a> by Erdoğan’s right-wing populist (in a “conservative democrat” discourse) ruling party, Justice and Development (AKP). Whatever the coming years hold, they will be full of surprises. No one, including Erdoğan and the AKP, seems quite sure what to expect – but the implications of this new order are especially unclear for the Kurds. </p>
<p>In the absence of a clear prognosis, the future of the so-called “Kurdish right problem” is the subject of intense debate on all sides. Is New Turkey a renewed Ottoman <a href="http://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780195390155/obo-9780195390155-0231.xml">millet system</a> of religious politics, an Islamist project in the style of the <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170217-turkeys-erdogan-muslim-brotherhood-is-ideological-not-terrorist-organisation/">Muslim Brotherhood</a>, or a chance to realise the long-held dream of Kurdish self-governance?</p>
<p>The Kurds briefly seemed to have a strong political voice in the form of the HDP. The party is noticeably different to the pro-Kurdish political parties of yore, espousing a leftist populist discourse of equality and liberty for all against the AKP’s growing conservative authoritarianism and neoliberal elitism. It’s also relatively popular among Kurdish movements: its efforts to mobilise the passion stirred up by the 2013 Gezi Park protests seemed to pay off at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-next-for-the-kurds-after-turkish-election-success-of-hdp-42979">June 2015 election</a>, where it cleared the 10% national vote threshold to win seats in parliament, netting 80 MPs. </p>
<p>The result was a beacon of hope for many in Turkey and beyond, but it faded fast. At a second election later in 2015, Erdoğan <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkey-election-erdogan-and-the-akp-get-majority-back-amid-climate-of-violence-and-fear-49963">won an outright majority</a> and formed a government, while the HDP lost 20 of its hard-won seats. Erdoğan’s approach to the Kurdish issue has since then been more hardline than ever. </p>
<h2>A more muscular approach</h2>
<p>The president accuses previous governments of being “weak” in the face of the militarised Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). He blames their failure on treacherous cadres within the police, military, and intelligence services – the same malign infiltrators he accuses of masterminding the <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkey-struggles-to-make-sense-of-a-surreal-failed-coup-detat-62596">failed coup attempt</a> in July 2016. Expunging these factions, he says, will allow him to take a more muscular, highly militarised approach.</p>
<p>When the so-called Kurdish peace process ultimately <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/07/turkey-kurdish-peace-process-150729074358423.html">broke down</a> in 2015, the AKP government duly turned away from a peaceful path to a military one, <a href="http://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2016/09/29/extension-of-state-of-emergency-to-benefit-people-president-erdogan-says">vowing</a> to vanquish the PKK altogether – all this with the zealous support of Turkish ultra-nationalists.</p>
<p>Violence soon returned to south-eastern Turkey. The HDP’s “human security” agenda was overwhelmed by a new armed conflict between security forces and the PKK’s youth branch, the <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/turkey-kurdish-rebels-new-youth-wing-or-deep-pkk.html">Patriotic Revolutionary Youth Movement</a>, who are using heavy weapons, digging trenches and erecting barricades down the side streets of cities and towns.</p>
<p>To listen to Erdoğan, you might think none of this was happening. In his post-referendum victory speech, he claimed his support had substantially grown in the east and south-east, even though those regions voted “No” by large margins. The HDP counter-claims that what advances Erdoğan made can be chalked up to fraud, unfairness, and outright coercion. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, in 2016, almost all the elected pro-Kurdish municipal authorities were <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/28-mayors-replaced-with-trustees-by-turkish-government.aspx?pageID=238&nID=103784&NewsCatID=341.0">replaced</a> by state-appointed “trustees” and elected mayors <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-kurds-idUSKCN11H065">arrested</a>, while the tough state of emergency law has securitised the region as never before.</p>
<p>Erdoğan seems to be looking for a new political representative for the Kurdish movement, one that will be more likely to toe his line. But as long as he oppresses the HDP, Kurdish politics will have no single mainstream political voice. The non-PKK, secular, socialist or Kurdistani (pro-Kurdish autonomy) political parties have yet to mobilise efficiently enough to carry much weight. The ensuing vacuum might be filled by a new actor – and not necessarily a secular, peaceful one.</p>
<p>One faction vying for the lead role is <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21590595-islamist-party-turkeys-kurds-huda-pars-emergence">Hüda-Par</a>, a radical Islamist party with links to the Hizbullah paramilitary group. But the majority of Kurds still associate Hizbullah with brutal violence, and secular pro-Kurdish factions are still popular, particularly since their <a href="http://aranews.net/2017/01/syrian-kurds-celebrate-second-anniversary-kobane-liberation/">victory against the so-called Islamic State</a> just across the Syrian border.</p>
<p>So long as the Kurds lack a unified political voice, the newly empowered Erdoğan will continue to deal with them violently rather than peacefully – and their future in Turkey will remain out of their control.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76425/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Omer Tekdemir does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With President Erdoğan increasingly empowered, the ‘Kurdish question’ is at the forefront once again.Omer Tekdemir, Research Associate, School of History, Politics and International Relations, University of LeicesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/499632015-11-01T22:03:43Z2015-11-01T22:03:43ZTurkey election: Erdoğan and the AKP get majority back amid climate of violence and fear<p>Turkey’s president, Recep Tayip Erdoğan, appears to have strengthened his grip on the country after the Justice and Development Party (AKP) won an outright majority in a snap election just five months after an inconclusive poll. It is a result that will shock and frighten many in the country.</p>
<p>Unofficial preliminary <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/reelection/results">results</a>, appeared to give the AKP 49.3%, followed by the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) on 25.7%, the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) on 12.1% and the pro-Kurdish left-wing Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) on 10.5%. The AKP is predicted to take 312 seats in the 550-seat parliament, the CHP 135 seats, the HDP 60 and the MHP 43.</p>
<p>This result is a big surprise, since pre-election polls forecast a result <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/01/uk-turkey-election-idUKKCN0SP17S20151101">not much different from that of the June election</a> – and it undoubtedly owes a lot to the toxic atmosphere in which the election was held. </p>
<p>As reported widely <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/turkey-election-could-bitterly-divided-nation-be-only-a-few-steps-away-from-a-dictatorship-a6711106.html">around the world</a>, the campaign was anything but fair. The AKP not only controls the army, but also holds sway over the judiciary and much of the media. The party and President Erdoğan effectively dominated pre-election airtime on the country’s public broadcaster, the Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT), which once again displayed <a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/national_erdogan-ak-party-dominate-pre-election-airtime-on-public-broadcaster_402618.html">blatant favouritism</a> toward the government and Erdoğan. </p>
<p>More worryingly still, <a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/national_abundant-claims-of-vote-rigging-on-election-day_403100.html">reports are circulating</a> of vote-rigging. The news agencies announced the results very rapidly. The election was called for the AKP within only a few hours, despite the fact that many votes were not even delivered to the <a href="http://anfenglish.com/news/45-votes-come-out-of-a-ballot-box-for-29-voters-in-mutki">counting boots</a>. Social media was abuzz with allegations of election fraud, as angry Turks documented their claims with <a href="http://umutgazetesi.org/antepte-kameralara-yansiyan-oy-hirsizligi/">photographs</a> and <a href="http://hayattv.net/secim-ihlalleri-01-kasim-2015-secimleri/">videos</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://anfenglish.com/news/international-observers-detained-in-istanbul">delegation</a> from Greece that was watching the elections was detained in Istanbul on the day of the vote, heightening the general atmosphere of tension. And people who live in Kurdish majority areas had to vote amid a heavy police presence. </p>
<h2>Presidential system</h2>
<p>Many observers are convinced that one of the fundamental reasons Erdoğan <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkeys-president-calls-snap-election-1440445939.">called this snap election</a> in the first place was to restore the AKP as the single ruling party, which will enable him to change the regime to a presidential system and strengthen his position. </p>
<p>Turkey has been through turbulent times in between the two elections. According to official records, <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/why-the-surge-in-terrorism.aspx?PageID=238&NID=88524&NewsCatID=425">more than 700 people have lost their lives</a> in political violence since June. The Kurdish peace process has collapsed, and the clashes between the PKK and the Turkish Army have restarted. </p>
<p>There have also been two suicide attacks. The first, in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33619043">Suruç</a>, near the Syrian border, killed at least 24 people and wounded nearly 100 more. Then there was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ankara-bombing-kills-dozens-calling-for-peace-in-turkey-48942">bombing of Ankara’s central railway station</a> on October 10, which killed 102 people and injured more than 400 – the deadliest terrorist attack in <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/11/turkey-bomb-blasts-ankara-mourning-scores-killed">Turkey’s history</a>. The bombs appeared to have targeted a “Labour, Peace and Democracy” rally organised by opposition parties and leftist groups. </p>
<p>No organisation has yet claimed responsibility for either attack, but the AKP government has tried to associate both with the PKK and other anti-government organisations, albeit with no evidence or proof. </p>
<p>Besides the Kurds and the leftists, the AKP has targeted other groups. Its relationship with the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13503361">Hizmet Movement</a>, a global faith-based civic network, fell apart in late 2013 after the Erdoğan government began raising disturbing concerns about its involvement in a “<a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/op-ed_conceptual-contradictions-when-it-comes-to-rhetoric-about-parallel-state-by-ahmet-erdi-ozturk-_337284.html">parallel state</a>”, a supposed shadow “<a href="http://hizmetnews.com/16145/turkeys-akp-planning-to-blame-hizmet-movement-for-deep-states-crimes/#.VjaAkq7hBhA">fifth column</a>” controlled by the movement. Since then, the AKP government has been clamping down on Hizmet-connected media groups and businesses.</p>
<p>Ominously, that crackdown has begun to extend to the wider media. After the June elections, several newspapers were taken over by government-appointed trustee boards. These events have drastically eroded Erdoğan’s international support – the Economist went so far as to publish an article explaining why Erdoğan should leave, calling him “<a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21677201-turks-should-vote-against-ruling-justice-and-development-party-november-1st-sultan-bay">the sultan at bay</a>”.</p>
<h2>The devil they know</h2>
<p>Turkey may no longer be saddled with an uneasy coalition government, but the intense polarisation the AKP has caused will not be resolved any time soon. During the last few months, the AKP was skating on thin ice, working hard to poach votes from the MHP by creating a paranoid atmosphere of violence and authoritarian crackdowns. It has been brazenly trying to turn Turkey into a police state, one where the opposition has no room to breathe and where religious and ethnic tensions deepen every day. </p>
<p>It seems this strategy has worked. People turned to the devil they know; even with an ever-quickening slide towards dictatorship underway, most voters probably just wanted to end the uncertainty that’s gripped the country for so long.</p>
<p>Now there are big questions to answer. It remains to be seen how well the AKP and Erdoğan can actually govern a society as deeply divided as Turkey is now, and just how harshly they are prepared to treat opposition in the name of stability.</p>
<p>On the other hand, now Erdoğan and the AKP have what they wanted, perhaps they’ll finally see sense, tone down their rhetoric and pick up the Kurdish peace process once again. </p>
<p>That may be a futile hope – but at least Kurdish voices have not been completely shut out of politics. Even with the AKP riding high, the relatively young HDP is still going to have an opposition presence in parliament, and it’s now the third-largest party in terms of MPs. That gives it a great chance to and grow its voter base to gradually become the strongest opposition party by the next elections. </p>
<p>As things stand, the HDP is now the biggest challenge to Erdoğan’s authoritarianism – a crucial role. Selahattin Demirtaş, the party’s co-leader, sent a strong message to the country during his <a href="http://www.birgun.net/haber-detay/hdp-den-secim-sonrasi-ilk-aciklama-94008.html">election night speech</a>: “No need to be afraid. We are here and we will keep resisting together.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49963/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After being humiliated at a summer election, Turkey’s ruling party set about winning over the population with fear. It seems to have worked.Bahar Baser, Research Fellow, Coventry UniversityAhmet Erdi Öztürk, PhD Candidate/Research Asistant, University of LjubljanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/496192015-10-30T05:30:26Z2015-10-30T05:30:26ZAs another election looms, can Turkey be saved from itself?<p>Turkey is about to hold its second general election in a year, after the first failed to produce a government. Since the vote in June, the country has been hit by violent unrest. </p>
<p>Whatever the outcome of the impending vote, urgent reform is needed to reinvigorate the progress towards democracy that appeared to have been made with the EU accession process of the early 2000s and the Peace Process (2009-2011; 2013-June 2015) with the Kurdish political movement.</p>
<p>The level of ideological polarisation on display in Turkey in the past few years has been deeply worrying. It has even been <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/umut-ozkirimli/ankara-bombing-and-end-of-turkish-republic">argued</a> that Turkey no longer constitutes a sustainable nation state. It has become a state of several nations, divided into vengeful communities who no longer have the will to live side-by-side in peace. </p>
<p>This troublesome political climate is largely the result of the demise of the peaceful negotiations between the incumbent AKP (Justice and Development Party) administration and the two major representatives of the Kurdish political movement – the HDP (Peoples’ Democracy Party) and the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party). </p>
<p>As the Peace Process failed, the armed struggle between the PKK and the Turkish security forces resumed, with tragic consequences for the social fabric of the country. The ensuing violence has robbed Turkey of a historic opportunity to resolve the decades-long dispute between the Turkish state and Kurdish citizens. </p>
<p>During the now collapsed negotiations, the HDP consistently argued that peace in Turkey is only possible if everyone has equal legal status and that the rights of all communities are recognised in the constitution.</p>
<p>This vision does not appear to be shared by the AKP or the mainstream media though. Both <a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/09/erdogan-turkey-hdp-akp-pkk-kurdistan-statement/">continue to argue</a> that the Kurdish rights issue can be resolved through military action against the PKK.</p>
<h2>Peace interrupted</h2>
<p>Despite having taken a liberal, reformist attitude in the 2000s, the AKP has become increasingly nationalist, conservative/Islamist and uncompromising in its stance on the <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/ruwayda-mustafah-rabar/what-is-kurdish-question">Kurdish question</a>. Where the party once pioneered attempts to integrate Kurds, Alevis and non-Muslims in Turkey and contributed to a democratic model that included these marginalised groups, it now seems to prioritise the rights of the Sunni majority. It is seen as promoting a conservative Turkish identity and letting national security define its approach to government. </p>
<p>Today, the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14683849.2014.954747">Turkish democratic model</a> appears to have completely lost its validity. NATO, the US and the EU have <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30484729">raised concerns</a> about press freedom and the way <a href="https://www.amnestyusa.org/sites/default/files/eur440222013en.pdf">protesters</a> have been treated by the government.</p>
<p>Then there is the government’s apparent desire to reignite its war with the PKK and its reluctance to take action against Islamic State. Turkey’s international image has certainly been severely tarnished in the last few years. </p>
<p>The archaic political order, based on one nation, one language and a narrow vision of society, is based on the link between Turkey and its conservative interpretation of Islamic principles. It cannot therefore accommodate the democratic demands of those who reject top-down social engineering such as Kurds, Alevis, seculars, liberals, LGBT people and various strands of the socialist left. </p>
<p>This fundamental question has not been addressed in the pompous speeches made by government spokespeople in the run up to this election. </p>
<p>Turkey desperately needs to establish a democratic consensus to mend the wounds in the psyches of its increasingly divergent populations. A new political order is needed to prevent these groups from splintering into separate nations. This must be based on multiculturalism and human security. Only through a broad coalition of social forces can the country end the intense polarisation that plagues it and progress towards conflict resolution and peace building.</p>
<h2>Beyond election politics</h2>
<p>Most <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/08/turkey-kurds-pkk-elections-erdogan-war-backfiring.html">independent surveys</a> indicate that the November 1 election will produce a result similar to those seen in June. Back then, the AKP took the most votes but not enough to form a government alone.</p>
<p>This time, there are two possibilities: either the AKP will form a coalition government with one of its opponents and get used to political compromise after almost 13 years of uninterrupted one-party rule, or president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will call for another election within a few months. That would further deepen the current crisis. </p>
<p>All scenarios for Turkey’s future, including the possibility of the AKP winning a parliamentary majority, demand that a plural and democratic centre ground be found. People need to be able to find peaceful solutions to their problems via the parliament rather than seeking potentially violent outlets for their frustrations. Otherwise, can Turkey even call itself a democracy at all?</p>
<p>Even an AKP administration can no longer afford to unilaterally impose its will on matters such as the Kurdish rights issue – at least not if it wants to keep Turkey from falling apart.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49619/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Only radical change can prevent civil war in a country fractured by the actions of its own government.Omer Tekdemir, Visiting Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, University of WestminsterOğuzhan Göksel, Lecturer in Political Science and International Relations, İstanbul 29 Mayıs UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/490672015-10-14T11:57:28Z2015-10-14T11:57:28ZAnger over Ankara response is a product of Turkish government’s past record<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/98257/original/image-20151013-31141-1v2ds22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters hold placards reading 'we know who the killer is'.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Murad Sezer</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Turkish voters will go to the polls on November 1, still reeling from the horrific bombings at a peace demonstration in Ankara on October 10. </p>
<p>The labour, peace and democracy rally in Ankara was planned as an intervention into the cycle of conflict that has engulfed the country since the parliamentary elections in June. Those who gathered did not get the chance to shout their calls for peace. A dual explosion went off, leaving <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/12/turkey-blames-ankara-bombings-on-islamic-state">at least 97 dead</a> and <a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/national_isil-emerges-as-prime-suspect-in-ankara-blasts-as-court-orders-confidentiality-order_401339.html">more than 500 wounded</a>.</p>
<p>In the aftermath of the attack, there have been <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/police-intervene-into-protest-against-ankara-bombing-in-istanbul-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89830&NewsCatID=341">mass protests</a> against the government. The public anger, it seems, is being directed not at the perpetrators of the attack but at the people in charge of the country.</p>
<p>This is because the Ankara attack was not an isolated event. It is the latest link in a long chain of assaults against democratic forces in Turkey. Outrage is directed against the government precisely because the culprits of the previous attacks have not been held to account.</p>
<p>Turkish authorities are reportedly focusing on <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/12/turkey-blames-ankara-bombings-on-islamic-state">Islamic State</a> militants as the main suspects in the bombing. Prime minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has already <a href="http://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2015/10/12/turkey-close-to-identifying-one-of-ankara-suicide-bombers-says-pm-davutoglu">stated</a>, though, that the government is also considering the “usual suspects”. That means the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C). </p>
<p>If these swift official statements were intended to reassure the public that the government is determined to identify the culprits and bring them to justice, they failed spectacularly.</p>
<p>Since the Ankara attack, dozens of protest meetings and rallies have <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/ankara-explosions-mourners-chant-anti-government-slogans-as-death-toll-rises-to-128-a6689501.html">taken place</a> across the country. These have been aimed squarely at criticising the interim AKP (Justice and Development Party) government and president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.</p>
<p>At first glance, this collective burst of anger could be interpreted as a condemnation of the initial official response from the government. Interior minister Selami Altınok had angered many by initially <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/11/turkey-ankara-terror-bombings-80-killed">rejecting</a> any suggestion that there had been failures in security preparations for the rally on October 10 – a view <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/not-taking-safety-precautions-is-not-a-security-gap-deputy-pm.aspx?pageID=238&nID89739&NewsCatID=338">echoed</a> by deputy prime minister Tuğrul Türkeş. Eyewitnesses and amateur video footage provided a damning account of the security forces’ questionable but all-too-familiar response. It has even been <a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/national_questions-raised-as-death-toll-reaches-97-in-turkeys-deadliest-terror-attack_401231.html">reported</a> that the police <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/ankara-explosions-turkish-police-fire-tear-gas-at-mourners-laying-flowers-a6689726.html">fired tear gas</a> at people trying to lay flowers at the scene a few hours after the attack.</p>
<p>Yet this customary shirking of responsibility and the abuses of police power are not the main reasons that thousands are chanting <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/12/world/europe/thousands-in-turkey-rally-against-government-after-ankara-bombings.html?_r=0">“murderer Erdoğan!”</a> or carrying banners that <a href="ewn.co.za/2015/10/11/Protesters-gather-at-scene-of-Ankara-bombings">blame the state</a> for the deaths of those gathered in Ankara.</p>
<h2>A turbulent year</h2>
<p>It is important to contextualise the Ankara bombings within the cycle of violence that has gripped Turkey since the June election. This vote marked the end of an era. The AKP saw its vote share drop 10% and <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkey-votes-for-change-but-dont-expect-the-erdogan-power-drive-to-end-42950">lost its parliamentary majority</a> for the first time since 2002. The HDP won an impressive 13% of the vote, securing 80 seats in the national parliament.</p>
<p>This new parliamentary dynamic prevented the AKP from introducing a controversial presidential system designed to radically extend Erdoğan’s powers. Incapable of accepting this electoral mandate, the party blocked the formation of a coalition government and forced a new election.</p>
<p>Ever since, a climate of insecurity has pervaded. In July, 32 youth activists were killed in an Islamic State-linked attack in Suruç. <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/turkey-syria-isis-bombings-need-new-security-concept.html#">Many people</a> believe <a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/national_no-justice-in-sight-for-attacks-in-suruc-diyarbakir_401229.html">no serious investigation has been conducted</a> into the attack.</p>
<p>After an alleged PKK cell attacked police officers in the aftermath of Suruç the AKP duly shelved the peace process that has been underway since 2012. By joining the US-coordinated strikes against Islamic State, the government gained <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2015-08-03/turkeys-cover">a convenient pretext</a> to launch strikes against the PKK and unleashed an intense <a href="http://www.apple.com">crackdown</a> on Kurdish activists. This triggered further retaliatory PKK attacks against Turkish security forces.</p>
<p>As the conflict intensified, the AKP’s hostile rhetoric against the HDP and other opposition forces assumed a fully undemocratic character. <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/in-turkey-its-all-about-the-palace-erdogan-arrests-corruption-election/">Senior party figures</a> blamed the election results and the ensuing hung parliament for the country’s rapid descent into violence.</p>
<h2>A mandate in tatters</h2>
<p>As a result of all this, the public has little faith in the government’s willingness to conduct a transparent investigation into what has happened in Ankara. This suspicion is mirrored by an almost equally forceful assumption that the AKP is <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-turkish-deep-state-and-why-is-it-in-the-frame-for-the-ankara-bombings-49038">complicit</a> in the attacks against the Kurds, left-wing movements and other opposition forces. It has failed to prevent attacks against HDP offices all across the country and remained ineffective against Islamic State intrusions into Turkish territory.</p>
<p>This sentiment has been explicitly voiced by the HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş. He has <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/hdp-co-leader-slams-erdogan-govt-for-attack-that-claimed-86-lives.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89681&NewsCatID=341">openly wondered</a> why the state has been unable (or unwilling) to properly investigate previous attacks and blamed the government for turning a <a href="edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2015/10/12/turkey-intv-amanpour-pleitgen-selahattin-demirtas.cnn/video/playlists/intl-latest-world-videos/">blind eye</a> to the people behind them. If the government’s past record is any indication, it is no surprise that the public is not optimistic about the prospect of a comprehensive and transparent investigation. </p>
<p>The June election was the first stage of a wholesale rejection of the AKP regime which has been defined by a continual erosion of democracy and an intensified <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/cemal-burak-tansel/gezi-park-occupation-confronting-authoritarian-neoliberalism">authoritarian neoliberalism</a>.</p>
<p>For a party that has always highlighted its electoral victories as the proof of its own legitimacy, the AKP has shown a remarkable disregard for the popular will. It has endorsed a reckless politics of exclusion.</p>
<p>The public outrage at the Ankara bombings demonstrates that it is the same politics of exclusion and violence that will be the party’s undoing. Barring a highly unlikely AKP victory (i.e. parliamentary majority) in the upcoming elections, the AKP’s authoritarian ambitions will continue to confront both a growing grassroots mobilisation and a parliamentary opposition spearheaded by the HDP.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cemal Burak Tansel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Beleaguered president may about to receive an unequivical message from voters.Cemal Burak Tansel, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Politics, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.