tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/homicides-39335/articlesHomicides – The Conversation2023-02-08T18:44:53Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1987702023-02-08T18:44:53Z2023-02-08T18:44:53ZBiden calls for assault weapon ban – but does focus on military-style guns and mass shootings undermine his message?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508949/original/file-20230208-17-hips9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden urges lawmakers to ban assault weapons "once and for all."</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-talks-about-passing-an-assault-weapons-news-photo/1246878544">Jacquelyn Martin/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Among those attending the State of Union address on Feb. 7, 2022, was Brandon Tsay. Invited by President Joe Biden, the <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-02-07/brandon-tsay-hero-treatment-washington-state-union">26-year-old has been hailed as a hero</a> for disarming a gunman who <a href="https://theconversation.com/monterey-park-a-pioneering-asian-american-suburb-shaken-by-the-tragedy-of-a-mass-shooting-198373">killed 11 people in a mass shooting in Monterey Park, California</a>.</p>
<p>Biden mentioned Tsay by name as he launched into a segment of the speech in which he <a href="https://news.abplive.com/news/world/ban-assault-weapons-us-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-us-gun-control-laws-1580805">implored lawmakers to ban assault weapons</a> “once and for all.”</p>
<p>We are <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=otGUUEoAAAAJ">political science</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RFfXF4YAAAAJ&hl=en">scholars</a> who study the framing of the gun policy debate in America. We believe the framing exemplified by Biden’s speech – which focuses on high-profile mass shootings and the role of assault weapons over other firearms – helps explain why so many Americans feel gun laws are doomed to fail.</p>
<h2>Do gun laws work?</h2>
<p>The Monterey Park rampage on Jan. 21 was just one of a number of mass shootings to occur in California in January. Two days after that event, seven people were killed at <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/29/1152389441/half-moon-bay-shooting-motive-repair-bill">Half Moon Bay</a>, while a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/us/oakland-shooting-california/index.html">mass shooting in Oakland</a> claimed another life.</p>
<p>With over <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/29/us/california-gun-laws-mass-shootings.html">100 gun control laws</a>, California has an <a href="https://giffords.org/lawcenter/gun-laws/states/california/">“A” rating</a> from the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence and is ranked No. 1 in the country in gun law strength by gun control advocates <a href="https://www.everytown.org/state/california/">Everytown for Gun Safety</a>. How, then, could multiple mass shootings occur in California, leaving at least 19 dead and many others injured, in <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/experts-explain-california-rife-gun-violence-despite-stringent/story?id=96665000">the span of one week</a>?</p>
<p>The answer is nuanced and complex. First, stricter gun control laws do <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12242">reduce gun-related deaths</a>. This is true for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2008.03.023">homicides</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jss.2017.08.027;%20https://doi.org/10.1016/S0749-3797(03)00212-5">suicides</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12242">accidental shootings</a>. In California, the annual death rate from gun violence is 8.5 per 100,000 residents, compared with the national average of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/firearm.htm">13.7</a>.</p>
<p>However, the effectiveness of state gun laws is influenced by those of other states. Trafficking of guns across state lines for purposes both legal and illicit is well documented, and guns used in crimes are more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-018-0251-9">likely to flow</a> from less regulated states into those with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.5.4.200">stronger gun laws</a>. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/19/there-are-more-guns-than-people-in-the-united-states-according-to-a-new-study-of-global-firearm-ownership/">a 2018 study</a>, there are at least 393 million guns in the United States, making it the most heavily armed civilian population in the world. Given the wave of pandemic-fueled <a href="https://www.norc.org/NewsEventsPublications/PressReleases/Pages/one-in-five-american-households-purchased-a-gun-during-the-pandemic.aspx">gun buying that started in 2020</a>, that number is likely much higher.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508985/original/file-20230208-13-3xeln6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Brandon Tsay stands up to be recognized during 2023 State of the Union address." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508985/original/file-20230208-13-3xeln6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508985/original/file-20230208-13-3xeln6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508985/original/file-20230208-13-3xeln6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508985/original/file-20230208-13-3xeln6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508985/original/file-20230208-13-3xeln6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508985/original/file-20230208-13-3xeln6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508985/original/file-20230208-13-3xeln6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biden recognizes special guest Brandon Tsay, who disarmed the Monterey Park mass shooter, for his ‘courage to act.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brandon-tsay-who-disarmed-a-shooter-monterey-park-calif-is-news-photo/1246891656">Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Image</a></span>
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<h2>Reframing the issue</h2>
<p>Beyond these facts, the question of why mass shootings continue to happen reveals how policymakers, media, interest groups and citizens understand the problem.</p>
<p>Using an approach called the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-022-00379-6">narrative policy framework</a>, we identify the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12207">stories that politicians and interest groups tell</a> about the problem of gun violence and how they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12255">use these stories</a> to build political support <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12187">for their policy goals</a>. A policy narrative typically contains characters – the victims and perpetrators of violence; a setting – the location and other contextual details; and a moral or solution.</p>
<p>Research shows that gun policy narratives often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-022-09517-x">focus on mass shootings</a> while placing less emphasis on more common forms of gun injury and death, such as individual homicide and suicide. Studying the communications of gun policy organizations from 2000 to 2017, one of us found that gun control groups mentioned mass shootings in 30% of their blogs, emails and press releases, and in 11% of their Facebook posts. They devoted <a href="https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.10063035">significantly less attention</a> to all other types of gun violence.</p>
<p>This emphasis, however, does not accurately reflect statistics on gun injury and death. According to the Centers for Disease Control, in 2020, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/injury.htm">more than 45,000</a> people died from gun-related injuries in the U.S. More than half of those deaths were suicides, while over <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/02/03/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-u-s/">40% were murders</a>.</p>
<p>Mass shootings – defined by the nonprofit Gun Violence Archive as shooting incidents involving <a href="https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/methodology">four or more victims</a> – accounted for just 0.1% of gun fatalities.</p>
<p>The overemphasis on mass shootings likely has many causes, not least of which is the media’s tendency to highlight <a href="http://doi.org/10.1080/0735648X.2017.1284689">dramatic and shocking events</a>. Given that public support for gun control temporarily <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2022/05/26/support-for-gun-control-after-uvalde-shooting/">increases in the wake of mass shootings</a>, these events create brief <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0143814X00003068">windows of opportunity for policy change</a>. Thus, it should be no surprise that gun control groups highlight mass shootings in their policy narratives. </p>
<h2>Futility arguments</h2>
<p>In asking how mass shootings like the recent ones in California could happen, it’s important to acknowledge the implicit argument that precedes the question: the idea that gun laws simply don’t work.</p>
<p>This argument, which is pervasive in the gun policy debate, is labeled the <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674768680">futility thesis</a>. The futility thesis holds that attempts at political change will ultimately amount to nothing, because the policy fails to appreciate that it is attempting to alter fundamental aspects of society. </p>
<p>In the case of gun policy, this may include the observation that the United States contains a constitutional right to bear arms, or that the country has a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/soc4.12497">long-standing gun culture</a>. Gun rights organizations, such as the National Rifle Association, also frequently claim that gun regulations do not work <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12323">because criminals do not respect the law</a>. According to this logic, any attempt to address the prevalence of firearms or to reduce criminal gun violence is destined to fail. </p>
<h2>Consequences for politics and policy</h2>
<p>As social scientists, we seek both to identify the major gun policy narratives and to explore their consequences. One potential consequence of focusing on mass shootings is it can lead policymakers to focus on solutions that address just one facet of the gun violence problem. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-01-27/analysis-why-biden-pushes-an-assault-weapons-ban-despite-the-political-odds">Democratic politicians</a> and gun control advocates often call for a ban on “assault weapons,” with a focus on military-style rifles like the AR-15, while <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/type-gun-us-homicides-ar-15/story?id=78689504">most shooting deaths in the U.S. involve handguns</a>.</p>
<p>With each mass shooting, these arguments are reproduced, and over time the policy debate has become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12421">increasingly polarized</a>. It is no wonder that while many Americans approve of federal efforts to regulate firearms, most don’t expect legislation to do much <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/07/11/broad-public-approval-of-new-gun-law-but-few-say-it-will-do-a-lot-to-stem-gun-violence/">to reduce gun violence</a>. </p>
<p>Is there a way to break the policy stalemate and make real progress on the problem of gun violence? We suggest that one path forward is to reformulate the policy narratives to better capture the full scope and severity of the problem. Mass shootings are horrific tragedies, but so is every gun death.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Gun policy scholars explain why even supporters of gun control often believe new restrictions are doomed to fail.Melissa K. Merry, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of LouisvilleAaron Smith-Walter, Assistant Professor of Political Science, UMass LowellLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1929172022-10-27T12:27:11Z2022-10-27T12:27:11ZCrime is on the ballot – and voters are choosing whether prosecutors with reform agendas are the ones who can best bring law, order and justice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491754/original/file-20221025-14-uxa41k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New York police respond to a shooting in Brooklyn in April 2021, amid a rise in shootings that year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/officers-respond-to-the-scene-of-a-shooting-that-left-multiple-people-picture-id1311166076?s=612x612">Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Different approaches to justice are on the ballot in November 2022 in some <a href="https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/2022-general-election-cheat-sheet/">public prosecutor and Congressional elections</a> around the country, revealing a deep divide about how differently Americans feel about crime and its consequences. </p>
<p>Many Republican Congressional and prosecutor candidates are focusing their electoral messages on crime, accusing Democrats of being <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/us/politics/republicans-crime-midterms.html">“dangerously liberal”</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/republicans-say-crime-is-on-the-rise-what-is-the-crime-rate-and-what-does-it-mean-192900">amid a seeming rise</a> of crime in some places. </p>
<p>They are also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/us/politics/republicans-crime-midterms.html">saying that</a> policies backed by Democrats <a href="https://www.vera.org/state-of-justice-reform/2019/bail-reform">like bail reform</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/28/nyregion/nassau-da-kaminsky-donnelly.html">threaten public safety</a>. Bail reform allows people who have been charged with a misdemeanor or a nonviolent felony to remain free pending the outcome of their cases, avoiding the scenario where people are held in jail because they are too poor to pay even modest amounts of bail. </p>
<p>The Republican message likely resonates with some voters. </p>
<p>An October 2022 <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/05/midterm-voters-crime-guns-00060393">Politico poll</a> showed that voters rank crime as a top area of concern, trailing only the economy and abortion. </p>
<p>Democrats, meanwhile, have responded by <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/23/congress-bipartisan-gun-package-00041701">supporting gun safety proposals</a> and pointing to House of Representative bills that they supported and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/22/us/politics/house-passes-police-funding-bills.html">passed in September 2022</a>, giving more money to local police departments. In other cases, Democrat candidates have largely avoided the topic of crime altogether, and instead have kept their focus on other <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/03/democrats-congress-house-majority-abortion-00059929">key issues like abortion.</a> </p>
<p>Against this backdrop, some local prosecutors running for election are arguing that public safety and new ways of thinking about incarceration can go hand in hand. </p>
<p>As a scholar who <a href="https://jessicahenryjustice.com/">writes</a> and <a href="https://www.montclair.edu/profilepages/view_profile.php?username=henryj">teaches</a> about criminal justice and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Smoke-but-No-Fire-Convicting/dp/0520300645">wrongful convictions</a>, I know that top prosecutors have tremendous power when deciding how justice is meted out – what crimes to charge, which people to bring charges against, and how cases are prosecuted. </p>
<p>How they choose to wield that control has significant consequences for poor people, communities of color, victims of crimes and society at large. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Latino middle aged man wearing a blue suit stands in a modern looking room, with big glass windows, and looks to his left, with his hands in his pockets." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jose Garza, district attorney of Travis County, Texas, is one of the progressive prosecutors elected in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/district-attorney-jose-garza-in-austin-tx-on-thursday-november-18-picture-id1240972549?s=612x612">Spencer Selvidge for The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A new way of thinking about justice</h2>
<p>Public prosecutors are government officials who are tasked with investigating and prosecuting crimes. They operate at different levels of government, ranging from state attorneys general – the highest law enforcement officer in state government – to county attorneys. </p>
<p>Prosecutors have <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-08-02/once-tough-on-crime-prosecutors-now-push-progressive-reforms">traditionally positioned themselves</a> as tough on crime, and measure their success by the number and severity of convictions they oversee. </p>
<p>But after the Black Lives Matter movement intensified around 2016, nontraditional candidates, sometimes called <a href="https://www.themarshallproject.org/records/8469-progressive-prosecutors">progressive prosecutors</a>, <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/Progressive-DAs-form-new-alliance-to-combat-15569007.php">began running</a> in local elections – and winning office. This followed growing public awareness about law enforcement’s treatment of people of color, and their <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/04/30/shrinking-gap-between-number-of-blacks-and-whites-in-prison/">disproportionate representation</a> in prisons. </p>
<p>There are roughly <a href="https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/prosecutors-and-sheriffs-in-2022/">1,200 public prosecutor races</a> on the ballot in November 2022, including <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Attorney_General_elections,_2022">30 state</a> races for attorney general. </p>
<p><a href="https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/2022-general-election-cheat-sheet/">Only 20 or so contested races</a> now involve prosecutors with notable reform agendas – though other reform-oriented local prosecutors <a href="https://boltsmag.org/shelby-county-ousts-da-and-judge-mulroy-weirich-sugarmon-michael/">were elected</a> <a href="https://vtdigger.org/2022/08/09/sarah-george-wins-democratic-primary-for-chittenden-county-states-attorney-fending-off-police-backed-challenger/">earlier in 2022</a> and still others are not up for reelection this term. </p>
<p>Many of these <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e319ff2fd340d698bc16f1e/t/615cba23c3925a713bd80264/1633466937856/Report_21st_century_prosecutor.pdf">change-oriented prosecutors</a> say they want to incarcerate fewer people. </p>
<p>Many of them have also pledged not to prosecute low-level misdemeanor offenses, like drug possession or trespassing. <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/misdemeanor-system-reinforces-economic-inequality">These kinds of charges disproportionately</a>, and often unnecessarily, affect people of color and the poor, resulting in lasting criminal records.</p>
<p>These prosecutors believe they can change the system from within, improving the overall fairness of the United States’ criminal legal system, while keeping the community safe.</p>
<p>Counties and local districts in Republican-leaning states like <a href="https://www.traviscountytx.gov/district-attorney/our-office/meet-the-da">Texas</a>, <a href="https://www.wycokck.org/Government/Elected-Officials/District-Attorney-Biography">Kansas</a> and <a href="https://www.portsmouthcwa.com/">Virginia</a> all elected reform-minded prosecutors over the last few years. In the last decade, voters in major cities <a href="https://www.chicagoappleseed.org/2022/09/16/report-progressive-prosecutor-promises/">like Chicago</a> <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/5/23384868/philadelphia-progressive-prosecutor-midterms-larry-krasner-impeachment-pennsylvania">and Philadelphia</a> also elected prosecutors with new visions for justice. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white door says 'Ring bell for bail bonds,' in red font." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sign in Los Angeles advertises bail bonds in 2019, when California became the first state to abolish bail in most cases for suspects who cannot afford it and are awaiting trial.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/sign-advertises-a-bail-bond-company-on-august-29-2018-in-los-angeles-picture-id1025093174?s=612x612">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>An uneven reception</h2>
<p>Aside from not seeking <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-08-02/once-tough-on-crime-prosecutors-now-push-progressive-reforms">cash bail</a> for most low-level cases, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/5/23384868/philadelphia-progressive-prosecutor-midterms-larry-krasner-impeachment-pennsylvania">some progressive prosecutors</a> have also stopped prosecuting marijuana possession and most prostitution cases against sex workers. </p>
<p>This new style of prosecutor, however, has also <a href="https://www.abajournal.com/web/article/progressive-prosecutor-pushback">experienced backlash</a> at the polls. Critics argue that progressive prosecutors are bad for public safety, suggesting that <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/why-homicide-rates-spiked-30-during-the-pandemic-/6420391.html">rises in crime</a> since the pandemic are partially because of their reform policies. </p>
<p>But a 2021 study found “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3952764">no significant effects of these reforms on local crime rates</a>.” </p>
<p>One of the authors of that study argues that <a href="https://time.com/6045637/not-prosecuting-misdemeanors-reduce-crime/">refusing to prosecute nonviolent misdemeanor offenses</a> may actually reduce crime. Not prosecuting certain crimes can help people avoid a criminal record, which, in turn, can help them find stable housing and work. </p>
<p>Another October 2022 <a href="https://munkschool.utoronto.ca/gjl/violent-crime-and-public-prosecution-report/">study found</a> found no connection between progressive crime policies and increased homicide rates, either during the pandemic or before 2022.</p>
<p>Yet, despite the complexity of crime data, attacks on reformist prosecutors have gained momentum. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/07/us/politics/chesa-boudin-recall-san-francisco.html">Chesa Boudin</a>, a former public defender who was first elected San Francisco’s top prosecutor in 2020,, lost his position in a 2022 recall election amid criticism that his policies led to <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/san-francisco-crime-rates-17487348.php">a spike in crime</a>.</p>
<p>In July 2022, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-07-22/baltimore-prosecutor-marilyn-mosby-defeated-in-primary">Marilyn Mosby</a> lost her bid to retain her Baltimore prosecutor post in the Maryland Democratic primary. And Manhattan District Attorney <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ID4v_NheKo">Alvin Bragg</a> continues to face criticism because of his support for bail reform in New York, where he led the effort that <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/24/new-york-democrats-bail-reform-00052207">banned cash bail</a> in most cases in 2019.</p>
<p>These prosecutors have been accused of releasing alleged criminal offenders from jail before a trial – who then <a href="https://www.thecity.nyc/2022/2/21/22944871/new-york-bail-reform-controversy-eric-adams">go on to commit</a> new crimes.</p>
<p>Yet, while there are people who committed crimes after being released from pretrial detention, <a href="https://review.law.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/02/69-Stan-L-Rev-711.pdf">research shows</a> that, in practice, reducing the use of cash bail has little to no effect on the percentage of people rearrested for criminal behavior. </p>
<h2>Common ground</h2>
<p><a href="http://gppreview.com/2021/03/03/public-opinion-death-penalty-republicans-democrats-agree-disagree/">Research also</a> shows that people of both major political parties are concerned about wrongful convictions, which are estimated to constitute about <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1306417111">4% of all convictions</a>.</p>
<p>I believe change-oriented prosecutors make a difference in wrongful conviction cases. There are approximately <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/?tid=27&ty=tp">2,300 prosecutor offices</a> in the country, and only around 100 <a href="https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Pages/Conviction-Integrity-Units.aspx">Conviction Integrity Units</a> specifically devoted to re-investigating cases for potential errors. </p>
<p>Yet, nearly <a href="https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Documents/Race%20Report%20Preview.pdf">one out of three exonerations between 2015 and 2022</a> were obtained with the help of a Conviction Integrity Unit. In these cases, prosecutors looked retrospectively at convictions their offices had obtained and then worked to reverse false convictions. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Pages/Conviction-Integrity-Units.aspx">effectiveness of these special units varies dramatically</a>, often reflecting the head prosecutor’s commitment to righting past wrongs.</p>
<p>When a prosecutor is willing to say that they made a mistake, that’s one step toward creating a more fair and legitimate system for all.</p>
<p>It also helps to free the innocent. </p>
<p>Recently, Adnan Syed, subject of the popular <a href="https://serialpodcast.org/">Serial podcast</a>, was freed after decades in prison for a 1999 murder of his ex-girlfriend <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/10/11/adnan-syed-charges-dropped-serial-podcast/10465862002/">that prosecutors now say he did not commit</a>. A <a href="https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/progressive-prosecutors-make-a-difference-for-the-innocent-db3a523f6dc8">reform-minded prosecutor in Baltimore County</a> helped lead a new investigation that found a lack of DNA evidence pinning Syed to the murder, leading to his release. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a blue pant suit and white shirt stands at a podium outside, facing a row of microphones at what appears to be a press conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Erica Suter, director of the Innocence Project and Adnan Syed’s attorney, speaks on Sept. 19, 2022, when Syed’s murder conviction was overturned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/erica-suter-dierctor-of-the-innocence-project-clinic-at-the-of-of-picture-id1243370842?s=612x612">Charlotte Plantive/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Different ways forward</h2>
<p>Crime has been an effective platform for Republican candidates in the past, and they have placed it <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/11/politics/crime-republican-messaging">front and center</a> in the final weeks leading up to the midterm elections in 2022. While many Democratic district attorneys and attorneys general take a more traditional approach to crime in their election campaigns, others promise a new approach to crime and justice. </p>
<p>Voters across the country are being presented with different visions of how to maintain public safety. Contested prosecutor elections are a referendum on those competing visions of justice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica S. Henry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new wave of prosecutors, known as progressives, say that public safety can exist with policies like eliminating cash bail for people charged with low-level offenses.Jessica S. Henry, Associate Professor, Department of Justice Studies, Montclair State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1871822022-07-18T13:49:33Z2022-07-18T13:49:33ZMass shootings in South Africa are often over group turf: how to stop the cycle of reprisals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474584/original/file-20220718-72671-c54j9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South African police minister, Bheki Cele, centre, at the scene of the tavern shooting that claimed 16 lives in Soweto. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In just two days in early July 2022, 25 people were shot dead in four separate incidents at taverns across South Africa. In one of these shootings, in <a href="https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/south-africa/2022-07-13-police-have-footage-of-soweto-tavern-shooting-mazibuko-says/">Soweto</a>, 16 people lost their lives. </p>
<p>The killings made <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/10/africa/soweto-south-africa-shooting-intl/index.html">international headlines</a> and were shocking even in South Africa, a society with one of the highest <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=ZA">murder rates</a> in the world.</p>
<p>There has been intense speculation about the motives behind the killings in the absence of reliable evidence that explains why the multiple murders took place. </p>
<p>To provide some insights into the possible reasons, I reflect on some of the research about mass shootings in South Africa with a view to recommending violence prevention interventions. </p>
<p>South African police <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/05/16/wc-has-seen-more-than-400-mass-shootings-between-june-2019-and-december-2021">classify</a> a mass shooting as an incident in which three or more people are shot with a firearm. Available evidence indicates that mass shootings in South Africa are mostly perpetrated by organised criminal groups, such as gangs, with motives often linked to competition over territory and resources. And that shooting incidents have a tendency to result in reprisal attacks.</p>
<p>Based on my insights gained over decades of <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Guy-Lamb-3">researching violence in South Africa</a>, my view is that the police will need to prioritise the confiscation of illegal firearms and improve the functioning of crime intelligence to reduce the occurrence of mass shootings.</p>
<h2>Patterns of crime</h2>
<p>Mass shootings have been taking place in South Africa for decades. Incidents were prominent during the 1990s, especially in the province of <a href="https://www.accord.org.za/ajcr-issues/voting-and-violence-in-kwazulu-natals-no-go-areas/">KwaZulu-Natal</a> as a result of tensions between supporters of the African National Congress and the Inkatha Freedom Party. Over the past three decades conflicts between <a href="http://www.csvr.org.za/docs/taxiviolence/fromlowintensity.pdf">minibus taxi associations</a> and between <a href="https://issafrica.org/research/books/organised-crime-a-study-from-the-cape-flats">criminal gangs</a> (especially in the Western Cape province) have frequently been characterised by mass shootings.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/services/crimestats.php">Quarterly crime data</a> indicate that incidents involving multiple murder victims have increased substantially over the past year. </p>
<p>Most murder cases involve the use of a firearm in which a single perpetrator murders a single victim. Nonetheless, multiple murders are perpetrated on a regular basis. For example, the <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/services/april_to_march_2019_20_presentation.pdf">2019/20 crime data</a> indicated that there were 508 murder cases where two or more people were slain simultaneously. A total of 1,133 people died in the incidents. This represented 5% of murders for 2019/20. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/plasma-gangs-how-south-africans-fears-about-crime-created-an-urban-legend-185544">Plasma gangs: how South Africans' fears about crime created an urban legend</a>
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<p>No data for multiple murder cases was provided for 2020/21. But <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/services/crimestats.php">quarterly crime data</a> for 2021/22 showed a significant increase in such murders. For the six-month period between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022, there were 416 multiple murder cases involving 953 victims. This equated to 9% of murders for this period.</p>
<p>Historically, most mass shootings in South Africa have been associated with three main things: gang conflicts, rivalries in the minibus taxi sector and factional or inter-group feuds (mainly in KwaZulu-Natal). These forms of collective violence have ultimately emerged from efforts to control certain spaces and resources.</p>
<p>Criminal gangs operate in most major cities in South Africa, especially in Cape Town and Gqeberha, in the Eastern Cape, where much of the <a href="https://www.sacities.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Web_SACN-State-of-Urban-Safety-2018-19-1204-1.pdf">violent crime</a> has been attributed to gang activity. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/13/world/africa/cape-town-crime-military.html">Gang conflicts</a> have traditionally revolved around gangs seeking to dominate poorer urban neighbourhoods to facilitate and benefit from the trade in illegal goods, especially drugs. </p>
<p>Violence in the <a href="http://www.csvr.org.za/docs/taxiviolence/fromlowintensity.pdf">minibus taxi industry</a> has often arisen from conflicts between taxi organisations over access to transport routes and taxi ranks. Another driver has been the perceived competition from other public transport service providers, such as <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/companies/amabhungane-taxi-mafia-blamed-for-deadly-attacks-on-long-distance-buses-20220608-2">bus companies</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.newframe.com/going-back-to-the-future-of-kwazulu-natal-politics/">Factional disputes</a>, which have frequently been linked to party politics, have often been related to access to and control over territory.</p>
<p>Mass shootings have at times been the outcome of conflicts between vigilantes and gangsters (or those regarded as criminals by vigilante groups) over control over specific communities. This has been an ongoing problem in Philippi East in the Western Cape. For example in September 2017, <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-10-03-patrollers-in-marikana-philippi-east-live-in-fear-after-mass-shooting/">11 people</a> were fatally shot in one evening at the <a href="https://www.groundup.org.za/article/marikana-informal-settlement-erupts-protests/">Marikana informal settlement</a> in fighting between gangsters and other residents. </p>
<p>Vigilantes in <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-28-phoenix-massacre-what-really-happened-in-the-deadly-collision-of-brutalised-communities/">Phoenix</a> were also responsible for mass shootings during the July 2021 unrest in KwaZulu-Natal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/crime-statistics-show-south-africas-lockdown-crime-holiday-is-over-166785">Crime statistics show South Africa's lockdown 'crime holiday' is over</a>
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<p>Mass shootings have also been associated with the illegal gold mining sector, due to conflicts between <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2018/5/1/illicit-gold-trade-fuels-conflict-in-south-african-mining-town">competing groups of miners</a> (or “zama zamas”) and between zama zamas and law enforcement or private security personnel. For instance, eight illegal miners died in a shootout with police at a mine in Orkney in <a href="https://www.news24.com/citypress/news/six-killed-as-police-exchange-fire-with-zama-zamas-in-north-west-20211007">October 2021</a>. And in <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2018/01/15/police-suspect-gang-rivalry-after-7-men-found-dead-at-benoni-mine-shaft">January 2018</a>, seven died in a shootout between different groups of miners.</p>
<p>Since 2017, mass shootings, particularly in <a href="https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Lifting-the-veil-on-extortion-in-Cape-Town-GITOC.pdf">Khayelitsha</a> in the Western Cape, have increasingly been attributed to extortion efforts by gangs. Acts of mass firearm violence have been used to terrorise township businesses and residents into paying “protection” fees. </p>
<p>Such violent organised criminality appears to have become more prevalent. <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/tavern-shootings-extortion-among-possible-motives-say-experts-20220711">Extortion</a> efforts might be the cause of the recent tavern shootings in Soweto and Pietermaritzburg. </p>
<p>Turf battles between extortion gangs have also tended to result in mass shootings between these groups.</p>
<p>All these forms of collective violence appear to have become self-perpetuating. Mass shootings have tended to ignite <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/bodies-pile-up-as-cape-towns-hard-livings-gang-goes-to-war-in-durban-a97c039f-f0a8-4e60-8364-f266baa0c74e">retaliatory attacks</a>, which in turn have led to further violent reprisals. This has contributed to norms and beliefs that prioritise the use of violence to manage inter-group conflicts becoming more entrenched in crime-affected communities. </p>
<p>On top of this, COVID and the war in Ukraine have had serious implications for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-economy-has-taken-some-heavy-body-blows-can-it-recover-183165">legal economy</a> as well as the illegal economy. Organised criminal groups have been feeling the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-11-03-gugulethu-massacre-gang-sends-out-grim-video-message-warning-of-more-carnage/">economic pinch</a>. Hence <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/extortion-rackets-likely-behind-spate-of-mass-shootings-in-cape-town-20220513">competition</a> between groups, especially between street gangs and groups specialising in extortion, appears to have become more acute and more violent.</p>
<h2>Way forward</h2>
<p>The South African government has two options to reduce mass shootings. Both will require monumental policing efforts. </p>
<p>The first entails the establishment of <a href="https://hub.jhu.edu/2018/01/11/how-to-reduce-gun-violence-in-baltimore-city/">targeted police operations</a> that focus on the confiscation of illegal firearms and ammunition where the risk of mass shootings is the highest, such as Khayelitsha and Delft in the Western Cape and Soweto in Gauteng. This is critically important as the upturn in violent crime appears to be linked to the widespread availability of illegal firearms. These are the <a href="http://www.policesecretariat.gov.za/downloads/reports/CSPS-WSG_Firearms_Report.pdf">most common weapon</a> used to commit murder, attempted murder and robberies with aggravating circumstances in the country.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-turn-the-tide-against-south-africas-crime-wave-131839">How to turn the tide against South Africa's crime wave</a>
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<p>This would need to be linked to a process of tightening the <a href="https://www.saferspaces.org.za/understand/entry/gun-violence">firearm law</a> to reduce the diversion of firearms into criminal hands. More than 5,000 licensed firearms are lost or stolen each year.</p>
<p>The second option necessitates considerable <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/role-intelligence-combating-organised-crime">intelligence gathering</a>. The police service’s crime intelligence arm needs to be able to identify and monitor the activities of groups responsible for mass shootings to secure arrests and convictions in court.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Guy Lamb receives funding from the Peace Research Institute, Oslo. He also serves as a Commissioner on South Africa's National Planning Commission where he chairs the Commission's Justice, Crime Prevention and Security Task Team.</span></em></p>Historically, most mass shootings in South Africa have been associated with three main things: gang conflicts, rivalries in the minibus taxi sector and factional or inter-group feuds.Guy Lamb, Criminologist / Lecturer, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1854812022-06-23T14:13:54Z2022-06-23T14:13:54ZWill closing the ‘boyfriend loophole’ in gun legislation save lives? Here’s what the research says<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470578/original/file-20220623-51459-duwhsw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C67%2C4970%2C3263&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Preventing people with domestic violence records obtaining guns would be a life-saver.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-holds-a-placard-that-says-no-more-silence-end-gun-news-photo/1241273019?adppopup=true">Jeremy Hogan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The U.S. Congress <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/24/us/politics/gun-control-bill-congress.html">has passed</a> a bipartisan gun safety bill, representing the first federal gun safety legislation to be passed in a generation.</em></p>
<p><em>The legislation, which will now be signed into law by President Joe Biden, is limited in scope. But among its provisions is the closing of the so-called “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/06/14/boyfriend-loophole-bipartisan-gun-deal/">boyfriend loophole</a>” which allows some people with a record of domestic violence to still buy firearms.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://cj.msu.edu/directory/zeoli-april.html">April Zeoli, at Michigan State University</a>, researches the link between intimate partner violence, homicide and gun laws. She explains what the change means – and why it would save lives.</em></p>
<h2>What is the boyfriend loophole?</h2>
<p>Under current federal legislation, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/921#a_32">intimate partner relationships</a> are defined only as those in which two people are or were married, live or lived together as a couple, or have a child together. People who were in a dating relationship are largely excluded from this definition.</p>
<p>As a result, dating partners are exempt from federal laws that prohibit those convicted of domestic violence misdemeanor crimes, or those who are under domestic violence restraining orders, from buying or possessing a firearm. This is what is referred to as the “boyfriend loophole”.</p>
<p>To put it another way, if you have two domestic abusers who have both committed the same severe physical violence against their partners, but one of them is married to their intimate partner while the other isn’t, then only the domestic abuser who is married could be prohibited from having a gun.</p>
<h2>What does the data tell us about domestic violence and guns?</h2>
<p>Intimate partner homicides have been rising since about 2015, and this increase is almost entirely due to <a href="https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/series/57">intimate partner homicides committed with guns</a>. Indeed, guns are the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/vio.2019.0005">most common weapon used in intimate partner homicide</a>. In contrast, non-gun intimate partner homicide levels have stayed roughly the same over that period.</p>
<p>Research suggests that when a violent male partner has access to a gun, the risk of murder to the female partner increases by <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.93.7.1089">fivefold</a>. We also know that guns are used to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1524838016668589">coerce, intimidate, and threaten</a> intimate partners, and that gun-involved intimate partner violence can result in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/vio.2016.0024">more symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder</a> than intimate partner violence that doesn’t involve guns. With a nationally representative survey suggesting that <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/ndv0312.pdf">3.4%</a> of victims of domestic violence have experienced non-fatal gun use by their abusers – combined with the high numbers of intimate partner murders committed with guns – this constitutes a large public health threat.</p>
<h2>Why are people talking about the ‘boyfriend loophole’ now?</h2>
<p>The conversation over extending domestic violence firearm restrictions to dating partners arises every few years.</p>
<p>This time, Congress has actually passed new gun safety legislation that will close, or at least narrow the loophole. The <a href="https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/bipartisan-group-of-senators-announce-agreement">wording of the proposed legislation</a> extends the ban to those who “have or have had a continuing relationship of a romantic or intimate nature.” </p>
<p>There are a few issues to note here. First, the motivation to pass new gun safety legislation came from recent mass shooting events and the hope of preventing future mass shootings. We know that many mass shootings often involve <a href="https://injepijournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40621-021-00330-0">killing intimate partners or family members</a>, and that some of the shooters have <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1745-9133.12475">criminal histories involving domestic violence</a> before they commit the mass shootings.</p>
<p>But mass shootings make up only a small percentage of shootings in the United States. Intimate partner homicide is a more frequent occurrence.</p>
<p>My research shows that when states extend firearm restrictions placed on individuals under domestic violence restraining orders to cover dating partners, there is an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwy174">associated reduction in intimate partner homicide</a>.</p>
<p>However, the legislation which has made its way through Congress does not do this exactly. The law would only close the loophole for those convicted of domestic violence misdemeanor crimes. It does not cover restraining order laws.</p>
<h2>What is the current situation at the state level?</h2>
<p>Some states, such as Minnesota and West Virginia, have <a href="https://www.statefirearmlaws.org/">extended misdemeanor domestic violence firearm restrictions to dating partners</a> already. Others, including Tennessee, have not. Fewer than half of states have extended the misdemeanor domestic violence firearm restriction to cover dating partners.</p>
<p>This has created a situation in which safety from gun violence by a violent dating partner depends on the state in which you live. Federal legislation would help to create a more consistent picture across the country when it comes to dating partners who commit violence.</p>
<h2>What effect will closing the ‘boyfriend loophole’ have at a national level?</h2>
<p>My research suggests that the federal firearm restriction for individuals convicted of domestic violence misdemeanor crimes is associated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwy174">reductions in intimate partner homicide committed with firearms</a>.</p>
<p>As such, one could hypothesize that restricting access to guns for a greater number of dangerous intimate partners would further reduce firearm homicides within violent relationships. By the same thinking, closing the boyfriend loophole when it comes to banning gun possession for individuals under domestic violence restraining orders would also probably save lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185481/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>April M. Zeoli receives funding to support her research from the National Collaborative for Gun Violence Research, the Joyce Foundation, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Institutes of Health. She is affiliated with the Consortium for Risk-Based Firearm Policy.</span></em></p>Congress has pushed through its first gun control legislation in 30 years. Included in the legislation is a provision to expand a firearm ban to dating partners accused of domestic violence.April M. Zeoli, Professor of Criminal Justice, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1253642019-10-22T11:37:16Z2019-10-22T11:37:16ZHave we become too paranoid about mass shootings?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297953/original/file-20191021-56194-8llmay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A big discrepancy exists between the actual threat of mass shootings and the way the public perceives that threat.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/vector-seamless-pattern-guns-171232187?src=InGArIF6vDloWwonGGNSXw-1-1">Tatiana Akhmetgalieva/Shutterstock.com </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Americans worry about when – not if – another mass shooting will occur, and a Gallup poll from September found that <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/266681/nearly-half-fear-victim-mass-shooting.aspx">nearly half</a> of Americans fear being a victim of one of these attacks. </p>
<p>After the film “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7286456/">Joker</a>” was released, you could see these fears play out.</p>
<p>Many announced they wouldn’t see it in theaters. The film’s deranged main character, <a href="https://www.popsugar.com/entertainment/why-im-too-scared-to-see-joker-in-theaters-46678830">they said</a>, would inspire people like the Aurora shooter, who, in 2012, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jul/20/colorado-movie-theater-shooting-timeline">killed 12 people</a> and wounded 70 others during a screening of “Dark Knight Rises.” </p>
<p>“I’m going to miss two minutes of the movie looking for emergency exits in a panic every time anyone gets up to go to the bathroom,” <a href="https://www.thecut.com/2019/10/im-going-to-have-to-pass-on-seeing-joker.html">a film critic for The Cut wrote</a>. Many theaters <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/joker-opening-inspires-increased-armed-security-movie-theaters-across-us-1463104">hired extra security</a> to allay the fears of moviegoers. </p>
<p>Then there have been <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/08/07/after-consecutive-mass-shootings-anxiety-is-through-roof-so-are-false-alarms/">the false alarms</a> in Times Square, New York, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Cambridge, Massachusetts and, most recently, in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/10/14/no-evidence-gunfire-after-shooting-report-sends-mall-into-lockdown-police-say/">Boca Raton, Florida</a>, which is less than 30 minutes from the site of the <a href="http://www.policefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Broward-Final-.pdf">Parkland shooting</a>. The Times Square panic was caused <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/08/07/after-consecutive-mass-shootings-anxiety-is-through-roof-so-are-false-alarms/">by a motorcycle backfiring</a>, while the Boca Raton false alarm was set off by <a href="https://cbs12.com/news/local/popped-balloon-caused-gun-scare-at-mall-in-boca-raton">a popped balloon</a>.</p>
<p>Everyone, it seems, is on edge. </p>
<p>Should we be?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=A4693C">My research has shown</a> a big discrepancy between the actual threat of mass shootings and the way the public perceives that threat. In other words, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10611-015-9552-z">people think mass shootings are far more common than they are</a>.</p>
<p>Why does this discrepancy exist? And what sort of ramifications does it have?</p>
<h2>Zooming out</h2>
<p>Sometimes it’s worth putting mass shootings in context.</p>
<p>Homicides account for <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/topic-pages/tables/table-1">just 0.1%</a> of all offenses known to law enforcement, and mass shootings represent just a fraction of all homicides. </p>
<p><a href="https://rockinst.org/issue-area/can-mass-shootings-be-stopped/">In a recent analysis, my colleagues and I determined</a> that the average annual victimization rate of mass shootings – meaning the rate of being injured or killed in one – is less than 0.04 per 100,000 people. </p>
<p>Put another way, being the victim of a mass shooting is just about as unlikely as being struck by lightning, which occurred at a rate of 0.035 per 100,000 people <a href="http://www.struckbylightning.org/stats2016.cfm">in 2016</a>.</p>
<p>Over the course of your life, you’re <a href="https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/">far more likely</a> to die in a car crash, in a fire or by choking on food.</p>
<h2>A misleading definition</h2>
<p>And yet, you don’t feel a twinge of anxiety every time you get into a car. You don’t scan the emergency exits every time you’re in a building in case there’s a fire.</p>
<p>So why do they evoke so much fear?</p>
<p>There are several reasons.</p>
<p>For one, people tend to think mass shootings are more common than they are. This could be partially due to the fact that there’s no precise definition – or generally accepted national data source – on what constitutes a mass shooting.</p>
<p>One of the sources that gets included <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/21/us/summer-mass-shootings.html">in a lot of media reports</a> is the <a href="https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/">Gun Violence Archive</a>, which defines a mass shooting as an incident with four or more people, excluding the perpetrator, being shot. <a href="https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/methodology">By their own admission</a>, the Gun Violence Archive doesn’t consider the circumstances surrounding the shooting. </p>
<p>So after an event like the El Paso shooting, you’ll see the Gun Violence Archive cited <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mass-shootings-2019-more-mass-shootings-than-days-so-far-this-year/">in some media reports</a>, which will show a “mass shooting” happening nearly every day.</p>
<p>But there are significant and qualitative differences between mass shootings like Columbine, Las Vegas, Parkland and El Paso, and other types of gun violence, like <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44126.pdf">familicides</a> – when a person murders their family members – or gang shootings. By lumping all events together in one database, it makes the problem of mass shootings, typically thought of in the context of events like Columbine, appear endemic. </p>
<p>Mass shootings – the public kind – have happened, on average, <a href="https://rockinst.org/issue-area/can-mass-shootings-be-stopped/">around 20 times per year</a> in the United States. This is more in line with the FBI’s database of “<a href="https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/active-shooter-incidents-in-the-us-2018-041019.pdf/view">active shooting incidents</a>,” of which there were 27 in 2018. </p>
<p>That’s still too many, but it’s a lot less than the 337 recorded in 2018 by the Gun Violence Archive. The frequency of these public mass shootings is slightly increasing, but the 20 per year average has remained largely consistent <a href="https://theconversation.com/mass-shootings-arent-growing-more-common-and-evidence-contradicts-common-stereotypes-about-the-killers-121471">since 2006</a>. They continue to be statistically rare events. </p>
<h2>Fueling the fear</h2>
<p>Second, <a href="https://digital.library.txstate.edu/handle/10877/4947">media coverage</a> seems to be a key driver of fear. </p>
<p>The vast majority of people will never directly be impacted by a mass shooting, so media coverage serves as their main source of information about these events. </p>
<p>When it comes to covering social issues, media outlets can choose from hundreds, but tend to only select a handful – what’s called “<a href="http://www.jaclynschildkraut.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Mass-Murder-and-the-Mass-Media-Understanding-the-Construction-of-the-Social-Problem-of-Mass-Shootings-in-the-US.pdf">setting the agenda</a>.” </p>
<p>So when media outlets decide to emphasize some issues – say, <a href="http://www.uta.edu/huma/agger/fastcapitalism/10_1/schildkraut10_1.html">guns, mental health and violent media</a> – over others, they’re telling news consumers that these issues should be on their minds, and should predominate over others, even if they’re exceedingly rare. </p>
<p>In the 1980s, sociologist Joel Best created a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/socpro/article-abstract/34/2/101/1637156">three-step model</a> to show how rare events are turned into widespread social threats. Best used missing children to illustrate this phenomenon, but he later applied it to understanding how society and the media have responded to school shootings.</p>
<p>First, the problem is given a name, which allows it to be defined. That name – in this case, mass shootings – is splashed across newspaper headlines and television screens. </p>
<p>Next, examples, particularly the most extreme ones, are used to highlight the seriousness of the problem. For mass shootings, Columbine is the lodestone. Even 20 years later, it serves as the point of comparison for all mass shootings.</p>
<p>Finally, statistics are used to underscore the severity or breadth of the issue. In the coverage of mass shootings, the media often highlight the casualty count, allowing them to rank events as the “<a href="https://thinkprogress.org/las-vegas-strip-to-go-dark-on-one-year-anniversary-of-worst-mass-shooting-in-u-s-history-66b5fb9573a5/">worst</a>.” Other statistics, like where mass shootings are situated within the national crime picture, are typically omitted.</p>
<p>Of course, there’s also a public appetite for coverage of mass shootings. They’re dramatic and they’re terrifying, so they attract clicks and viewers. But the airtime mass shootings receive is far removed from their statistical likelihood. It has cemented the phenomenon as a <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/shootings-guns-public-opinion/">social issue</a> – and perhaps that’s why <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/266681/nearly-half-fear-victim-mass-shooting.aspx">48% of Americans</a> fear being victimized by a mass shooter.</p>
<h2>Unintended consequences</h2>
<p>The disparity between public perceptions of the threat and the reality of their occurrence have some pretty significant consequences.</p>
<p>Accompanying the heightened panic about mass shootings is a demand for <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12103-013-9214-6">something to be done</a> – and to be done immediately – to prevent future attacks.</p>
<p>But do these proposed fixes make sense? Are they even viable?</p>
<p>Take schools. Even in the aftermath of shootings like Sandy Hook and Parkland, schools remain among <a href="https://news.northeastern.edu/2018/02/26/schools-are-still-one-of-the-safest-places-for-children-researcher-says/">the safest places for children</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, in the wake of these tragedies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-students-safe-is-a-growth-industry-struggling-to-fulfill-its-mission-122705">a school security market has emerged</a> that now takes in <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2018/05/08/education/anxiety-over-shootings-bolsters-27-billion-school-security-industry">US$3 billion annually</a>. Many of the solutions these firms tout – bulletproof backpacks, security cameras and metal detectors – might give people the impression that their kids are safer. But in many cases, there’s <a href="https://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=A5696C">little actual evidence</a> that they’ll prevent a school shooting or minimize the loss of life if one does occur. And again, that’s if one occurs.</p>
<p>Fear is a powerful emotion. It’s easily exploitable, comes with a high price tag, and dictates decisions we make.</p>
<p>Let’s not allow this fear to prevent us from living our lives and addressing the problem in a smart and realistic way.</p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125364/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jaclyn Schildkraut does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You’re just as likely to be a victim of a mass shooting as you are to be struck by lightning. So why do nearly 50% of Americans say they’re afraid of being caught in the crossfire?Jaclyn Schildkraut, Associate Professor of Criminal Justice, State University of New York OswegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1167712019-05-10T12:43:03Z2019-05-10T12:43:03ZVenezuela’s soaring murder rate has plunged the nation into a public health crisis<p>Over the past three decades, Venezuela has shifted from being a peaceful country, to one of the most violent nations in the world. Decades of poor governance have driven what was once one of Latin America’s most prosperous countries to economic and political ruin. The violent confrontations between anti-government demonstrators and forces loyal to president Nicolás Maduro in recent days, alongside the systemic breakdown of public services, have plunged Venezuela’s population into a public health crisis.</p>
<p>Most countries in Latin America have increased their life expectancy over the last 50 years. And Venezuela was no exception: the average life expectancy of the population rose by almost four years every decade from 1950 to 1990, thanks to improvements in healthcare, living standards and nutrition. In particular, there were major advances in reducing infant mortality and tackling infectious and parasitic diseases. </p>
<p>Had the pattern held, Venezuelan men – whose average life expectancy at birth was about 70 years in 1996 – should have averaged almost 77 years in 2013. Instead, as we report in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz072">our new research</a>, men’s life expectancy increased by just one year and six months (from 70 to 71 and a half), while women’s increased by three-and-a-half years (from 76 to 79). The upsurge in violence and murder has stalled further gains. </p>
<h2>Rising violence</h2>
<p>At the beginning of the 1980s, homicides were relatively rare in Venezuela. At around <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1413-81232012001200008">eight per 100,000 people</a>, it was almost on a par with the most peaceful nations in the region, such as Costa Rica (which had <a href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1405-74252005000100008">six homicides per 100,000 people</a> in 1980). But the social and economic upheavals of the 1980s unleashed an unstoppable epidemic of violence, which spread across the country. </p>
<p>According to United Nations, the homicides rate in Venezuela was <a href="https://www.unodc.org/gsh/">53.7 murders per 100,000 persons</a> in 2012; that’s higher than figures for many other Latin American countries, including Colombia, which had <a href="https://www.unodc.org/gsh/">30.8 murders per 100,000 people</a> in the same year, while in the grips of an <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-19390164">undeclared civil war</a>. In the nation’s interior, the situation is even worse: according to <a href="https://igarape.org.br/revisiting-the-worlds-most-violent-cities/">estimations</a>, in the capital city of Caracas, the mortality rate due to violent deaths in 2015 was around 120 homicides per 100,000 people. </p>
<p>Most of the homicides in Venezuela are committed with firearms, which are widely available. While the government and opposition remain locked in turmoil, weapons have flooded onto the black market, where local <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1517-45222002000200003">police and armies have become</a> the main smugglers. Worse, the government has implemented a policy to arm pro-government supporters, in order to contain protesters. </p>
<p>Male life expectancy in Venezuela was curtailed by almost two years, exclusively because of violent deaths between 1996 and 2013. Violence has offset improvements in the nation’s mortality rate, achieved by reducing the risk of death from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz072">cardiovascular diseases and other causes of death</a>. Similar findings have been reported for Mexico where the war on drugs <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304878">held back life expectancy</a> gains in the new century.</p>
<p>Violence has also further negative impacts on the quality of life and psychological well-being of Venezuelan people. Men in Venezuela are dying earlier, but the burden of violence on people goes beyond homicides. Being exposed to a violent environment <a href="https://jech.bmj.com/content/71/2/188">increases the risk</a> of depression, alcohol abuse, suicidal behaviour, and psychological problems, such as fear – among other <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3863696/">detrimental effects</a> on people’s lives. </p>
<h2>A bleak outlook</h2>
<p>Venezuela’s future does not look promising. Outbreaks of political violence have intensified recently, partly due to the steady militarisation of the police. Random shootings against civilians, tear gas shot straight into homes, extrajudicial killings in military operations against street crime and forced disappearances of political dissidents are increasingly being reported by NGOs such as <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/venezuela">Human Rights Watch</a>. </p>
<p>What’s more, severe shortages of food and medical supplies, and the total collapse of the public health system, have left Venezuelans unable to feed their families or access to basic healthcare. Infant and maternal mortality <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30479-0">has increased</a> again, and infectious and parasitic diseases, such as malaria, measles and diphtheria, <a href="https://theconversation.com/venezuela-regions-infectious-crisis-is-a-disaster-of-hemispheric-proportions-112104">have re-emerged</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/venezuela-regions-infectious-crisis-is-a-disaster-of-hemispheric-proportions-112104">Venezuela: region's infectious crisis is a disaster of hemispheric proportions</a>
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<p>The acute impacts of political and socioeconomic disintegration on mortality rates since 2013, highlighted by recent deadly demonstrations in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/world/americas/venezuela-uprising-crisis.html">Caracas</a>, have yet to be measured. Public institutions in Venezuela have been forced to follow a strict policy of secrecy, and mortality and health data sources have not been updated, nor made publicly available since 2013. The stagnation in life expectancy found up to that year is likely to turn to decline, as this humanitarian crisis worsens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116771/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>At the beginning of the 1980s, homicides were relatively rare in Venezuela. Now, it’s one of the most dangerous countries in Latin America.José Manuel Aburto, PhD Candidate, Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern DenmarkJenny Garcia, PhD Candidate in Demography, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1062872018-11-15T17:18:02Z2018-11-15T17:18:02ZDozens of migrants disappear in Mexico as Central American caravan pushes northward<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245607/original/file-20181114-194519-birzhm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Migrants travel in groups through Mexico for safety reasons. But Mexico is still one of the world's most dangerous countries.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Central-America-Migrant-Caravan/5b4b09e175534118802b8868f4e98028/30/0">AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Hondurans who banded together last month to travel northward to the United States, fleeing <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/photography/proof/2018/february/honduras-gang-violence-migration-corruption-boys/">gangs</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-central-america-gangs-like-ms-13-are-bad-but-corrupt-politicians-may-be-worse-86113">corruption</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/in-honduras-poverty-and-gangs-help-drive-migration/2018/10/23/d97e0d94-d712-11e8-8384-bcc5492fef49_story.html">poverty</a>, were joined by other Central Americans hoping to <a href="https://theconversation.com/migrants-travel-in-groups-for-a-simple-reason-safety-105621">find safety</a> in numbers on this perilous journey. </p>
<p>But group travel couldn’t save everyone. </p>
<p>Earlier this month, two trucks from the caravan <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/migrant-caravan-kidnap-mexico-trump-midterm-elections-oaxaca-organised-crime-a8619731.html">disappeared</a> in the state of Veracruz, Mexico. One person who escaped <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com.mx/2018/11/08/de-los-100-migrantes-entregados-al-crimen-organizado-65-son-ninos-mas-sobre-el-secuestro-de-la-caravana_a_23584150/">told officials</a> that about “65 children and seven women were sold” by the driver to a <a href="https://www.sinembargo.mx/05-11-2018/3493947">group of armed men</a>.</p>
<p>Mexican authorities are searching for the migrants, but history shows that people missing for more than 24 hours are <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2018/10/mexico-desaparecidos-sistema-incompleto-recursos-suficientes/">rarely found</a> in Mexico – alive or at all. </p>
<h2>Mexico’s ambiguous welcome</h2>
<p>An average of 12 people <a href="http://www.zocalo.com.mx/new_site/articulo/reportan-cada-dia-12-desaparecidos-en-mexico">disappear each day</a> in Mexico. Most are victims of a raging three-way war among the <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com.mx/2017/12/12/ley-de-seguridad-interior-es-impugnable-permite-al-ejercito-autogobernarse-e-implica-un-estado-de-excepcion-de-facto-cide_a_23304769/">Mexican armed forces</a>, organized crime and drug cartels. </p>
<p>The military crackdown on criminal activity has actually <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-record-29-000-mexicans-were-murdered-last-year-can-soldiers-stop-the-bloodshed-90574">escalated violence</a> in Mexico since operations began in 2006, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-record-29-000-mexicans-were-murdered-last-year-can-soldiers-stop-the-bloodshed-90574">my research</a> and <a href="https://www.vice.com/es_latam/article/7x3bvb/ejercito-marina-policias-abrumadoramente-letales-mexico">other security studies</a> show.</p>
<p>Nearly <a href="https://www.proceso.com.mx/552216/en-2018-nuevo-record-de-asesinatos">22,000</a> people were murdered in Mexico in the first eight months of this year, a dismal record in one of the world’s deadliest places.</p>
<p>Central Americans fleeing similarly rampant violence back home confront those risks and others on their journey to the United States. <a href="http://www.msf.mx/sites/mexico/files/msf_fah_e.pdf">Doctors Without Borders</a> found that over two-thirds of migrants surveyed in Mexico in 2014 experienced violence en route. One-third of women had been sexually abused.</p>
<p>Mexico’s security crisis may explain why so few caravan members want to stay there. </p>
<p>In response to President Donald Trump’s <a href="https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1052885781675687936?lang=en">demands</a> that Mexico “stop this onslaught,” Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto <a href="https://twitter.com/EPN/status/1055915565670293504">announced</a> that migrants who applied for asylum at Mexico’s southern border would be given shelter, medical attention, schooling and jobs. </p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-caravan/central-american-caravan-moves-on-in-spite-of-mexico-jobs-offer-idUSKCN1N10Q8">1,700</a> of the estimated 5,000 caravan members took him up on the offer.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/09/migrant-caravan-mexico-response-rich-poor-supplies-complaints">everyday Mexicans</a> are greeting the migrants as they pass through their towns, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-09/migrant-caravan-honduras-mexico-trump/10473780">donating</a> food, clothing, lodging and transport. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Caravana-migrante-mayor-respaldo-entre-comunidades-rurales-20181105-0061.html">A recent poll</a> shows that 51 percent of Mexicans support the caravan. Thirty-three percent of respondents, many of them affluent members of Mexico’s urban <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2018/11/rechazo-a-centroamericanos-es-racismo-investigadores/">middle class</a>, want the migrants to go back to Central America. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245603/original/file-20181114-172710-158fmaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245603/original/file-20181114-172710-158fmaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245603/original/file-20181114-172710-158fmaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245603/original/file-20181114-172710-158fmaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245603/original/file-20181114-172710-158fmaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245603/original/file-20181114-172710-158fmaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245603/original/file-20181114-172710-158fmaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two trucks carrying an estimated 80 migrants went missing in Mexico in early November.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Central-America-Migrant-Caravan/257c99aefc834c6b9e7062570824d683/3/0">AP Photo/Marco Ugarte</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Asylum overload</h2>
<p>Mexican <a href="https://t.co/fm41zAFPfh">law</a>, which allows eligible asylum seekers to both request and be granted asylum, exceeds <a href="http://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/">international standards on the rights of migrants</a>.</p>
<p>But reality in Mexico often falls short of the law. </p>
<p>The Mexican Refugee Assistance Commission is supposed to process <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/regley/Reg_LRPC.pdf">asylum applications</a> in 45 days. But its offices in Mexico City were damaged by last year’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexico-citys-potent-2017-earthquake-was-a-rare-bending-quake-and-it-could-happen-again-92994">earthquake</a>, forcing the already <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/30/mexico-cant-handle-your-tired-poor-and-huddled-masses/">overstretched and underfunded</a> agency to <a href="http://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5502876&fecha=30/10/2017">suspend</a> processing of open asylum claims for months. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, new applications for asylum in Mexico continued to pour in – a record <a href="https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/290340/ESTADISTICAS_2013_A_4TO_TRIMESTRE_2017.pdf">14,596</a> were filed last year. The processing <a href="https://www.upi.com/Mexico-facing-two-year-backlog-as-asylum-requests-soar/2031535567041/">backlog</a> is now two years. </p>
<p>During that period of legal limbo, asylum seekers cannot work, attend school or fully access Mexico’s public health system. President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who takes office on Dec. 1, <a href="https://www.proceso.com.mx/555830/amlo-anuncia-plan-de-visas-de-trabajo-a-migrantes-centroamericanos">says he will offer</a> Central American migrants temporary working visas while their claims are processed.</p>
<p>Anti-caravan posts on social media accuse migrants of <a href="https://twitter.com/DiegoPinon_/status/1054099351071612929?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1054099351071612929&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.culturacolectiva.com%2Fmexico%2Fmexico-es-racista-una-realidad-que-expuso-la-caravana-migrante%2F">taking Mexican jobs</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/SummertimesCold/status/1053352285588410368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1053352285588410368&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.culturacolectiva.com%2Fmexico%2Fmexico-es-racista-una-realidad-que-expuso-la-caravana-migrante%2F">violating Mexico’s sovereignty</a>, using nativist language <a href="https://news.culturacolectiva.com/mexico/mexico-es-racista-una-realidad-que-expuso-la-caravana-migrante/">similar to that seen in the United States</a>.</p>
<p>Mexico City, which in 2017 declared itself to be a <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexico-seeks-to-become-country-of-refuge-as-us-cracks-down-on-migrants-97668">sanctuary city</a>, nonetheless put thousands of caravan members up in a stadium staffed by medical teams and humanitarian groups.</p>
<h2>Militarizing the US-Mexico border</h2>
<p>The first Central Americans from the caravan are now <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46207034">arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border</a>, where they face a far less warm reception.</p>
<p>Calling the caravan an “<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1056919064906469376">invasion</a>,” President Trump has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/31/trump-migrant-caravan-immigration-us-troops-mexico">ordered the deployment of over 5,000 troops</a> to the border.</p>
<p>U.S. law <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1385">prohibits</a> the use of the armed forces to enforce domestic laws without specific congressional authorization. That means the troops can only support border agents in deterring migrants.</p>
<p>But Trump’s decision still has symbolic power. This is the first time in over a century that military troops have been summoned to defend the U.S.-Mexico border.</p>
<p>The last deployment occurred during the Mexican Revolution. </p>
<p>On March 9, 1916, a small band of revolutionaries led by Francisco “Pancho” Villa <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1865904?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">invaded</a> Columbus, New Mexico. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245608/original/file-20181114-194519-hyu03a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245608/original/file-20181114-194519-hyu03a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245608/original/file-20181114-194519-hyu03a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245608/original/file-20181114-194519-hyu03a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245608/original/file-20181114-194519-hyu03a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245608/original/file-20181114-194519-hyu03a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245608/original/file-20181114-194519-hyu03a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245608/original/file-20181114-194519-hyu03a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After Mexican revolutionary Pancho Villa attacked Columbus, New Mexico, President Woodrow Wilson sent troops to the border – and into Mexican territory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.latinamericanstudies.org/mexican-revolution/punitive-expedition-2.gif">United States Air Force</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Officially, the group assaulted the border city in retaliation for then-President Woodrow Wilson’s support of Venustiano Carranza, Villa’s political rival. Villa also had a personal vendetta against Sam Ravel, a local man who had swindled money from him.</p>
<p>President Wilson responded by summoning General John J. Pershing, who assembled a force of 6,000 U.S. troops to <a href="https://www.biography.com/video/pancho-villa-wanted-dead-or-alive-30107203953">chase</a> Villa deep inside Mexico’s northern territory. Pershing’s “punitive expedition” returned in early 1917 after failing to capture the revolutionary leader.</p>
<h2>No relief at the border</h2>
<p>Central Americans who reach the militarized United States border can still <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1687.html#0-0-0-192">apply for asylum</a> there, despite President Trump’s recent executive order <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/08/us/politics/trump-asylum-seekers-executive-order.html">limiting</a> where they may do so. But they face stiff odds.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245609/original/file-20181114-194497-1m73dgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245609/original/file-20181114-194497-1m73dgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245609/original/file-20181114-194497-1m73dgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245609/original/file-20181114-194497-1m73dgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245609/original/file-20181114-194497-1m73dgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245609/original/file-20181114-194497-1m73dgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245609/original/file-20181114-194497-1m73dgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Central American caravan includes many women asylum seekers hoping to give their children a safer life in the United States.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Central-America-Migrant-Caravan/093a40b2fc8e4e70b28bbfbc0a5a55c3/4/0">AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After an evaluation process that can take months or <a href="https://theconversation.com/migrant-caravan-members-have-right-to-claim-asylum-heres-why-getting-it-will-be-hard-101005">years</a>, the majority of Central American asylum claims filed in the United States – 75 percent – are <a href="https://theconversation.com/migrant-caravan-members-have-right-to-claim-asylum-heres-why-getting-it-will-be-hard-101005">denied</a>. Caravan members rejected will be sent back to the same perilous place they fled last month.</p>
<p>With 60 percent of its population <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/honduras/overview">living in poverty</a>, Honduras is the <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/honduras/overview">poorest country in Latin America</a>. It also has the world’s second-highest homicide rate – <a href="https://iudpas.unah.edu.hn/observatorio-de-la-violencia/boletines-del-observatorio-2/boletines-nacionales/">43.6 murders per 100,000 people</a> – trailing only El Salvador.</p>
<p>The U.S. contributed to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-us-policy-in-honduras-set-the-stage-for-todays-migration-65935">instability that created these hardships</a>.</p>
<p>Honduras has been in turmoil since 2009, when the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8124154.stm">military</a> overthrew leftist President Manuel Zelaya. Rather than join the United Nations and European Union in demanding Zelaya’s reinstatement, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/transcript-hillary-clinton-meets-news-editorial-board-article-1.2596292">called for new elections</a>, effectively endorsing a coup. </p>
<p>The country entered a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/07/crisis-of-honduras-democracy-has-roots-in-us-tacit-support-for-2009-coup">prolonged political crisis</a>. Honduras’s November 2017 presidential election was <a href="https://theconversation.com/hondurass-election-crisis-is-likely-to-end-in-violence-88625">contested</a>, with the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/22/world/americas/us-honduras-president-hernandez.html">U.S.-backed</a> President Juan Orlando Hernández accused of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/22/us-recognizes-re-election-of-honduras-president-despite-calls-for-a-new-vote">rigging the vote</a>. Seventeen opposition protesters were killed in the unrest that followed.</p>
<p>The Central American caravan that started in Honduras seeks in the U.S. a life free of such violence. Its steady progress toward the border shows that even kidnappings, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wall-and-the-beast-trumps-triumph-from-the-mexican-side-of-the-border-68559">Trump’s threats</a> and soldiers cannot deter them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis Gómez Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two trucks carrying migrants have gone missing in Veracruz, Mexico. A witness says that ‘65 children and seven women were sold’ to a band of armed men. Other caravan members have reached the border.Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/916022018-04-06T10:45:28Z2018-04-06T10:45:28ZColombia’s murder rate is at an all-time low but its activists keep getting killed<p>A 2016 <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/22/americas/colombia-farc-peace-agreement/index.html">peace agreement between the Colombian government and the guerrilla Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC,</a> was supposed to bring peace to this South American country after a 52-year civil war that killed 220,000 people. </p>
<p>Instead, nearly <a href="http://www.defensoria.gov.co/es/nube/destacados/7076/Alerta-temprana-026-2018-es-una-nota-de-seguimiento-al-informe-de-Riesgo-010-2017.htm?_s=dia_agua">300</a> community organizers and activists have been murdered since the accords were signed in November 2016. Hundreds more have received death threats. Eight <a href="https://www.wola.org/analysis/colombia-human-rights-activists-threats-harassment-march-2018/">activists were killed in March 2018 alone</a>. </p>
<p>During the same period, the overall homicide rate in Colombia has <a href="https://www.elespectador.com/noticias/judicial/homicidios-en-colombia-la-tasa-mas-baja-en-los-ultimos-42-anos-se-dio-en-2017-articulo-734526">dropped</a> to <a href="https://razonpublica.com/index.php/politica-y-gobierno-temas-27/10958-colombia-seguir%C3%A1-el-asesinato-de-los-l%C3%ADderes-pol%C3%ADticos.html">an all-time low</a>. </p>
<p>As violence researchers who focus on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jjkUy0wAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">conflict and inequality</a>, we wanted to explore the data on the recent spate of targeted assassinations. Why are so many Colombian activists dying?</p>
<h2>Indigenous leaders under fire</h2>
<p>Most of the community organizers assassinated in Colombia over the past 16 months were political activists from three largely rural communities: the small-scale farmers generally called “peasants” here, indigenous people and Afro-Colombians. These populations <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1815910">face persistent social and economic discrimination in Colombia</a>.</p>
<p>Indigenous organizers have been particular targets of the violence. Just 3 percent of Colombia’s population identifies as indigenous, but <a href="https://choco.org/documentos/informe-anual-2017-piedra-en-el-zapato.pdf">12 percent of the civil society leaders slain in 2017 were indigenous</a>. </p>
<p>The crimes do not seem to be racially motivated. Rather, they appear to be political crimes, a retaliation against the country’s 2016 peace process. </p>
<p>Murders have generally declined since the accords, dropping from 12,252 in 2016 to <a href="https://www.elespectador.com/noticias/judicial/homicidios-en-colombia-la-tasa-mas-baja-en-los-ultimos-42-anos-se-dio-en-2017-articulo-734526">11,781 in 2017</a>. Colombia’s homicide rate is still worse than <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?view=chart">almost every other country in the world</a>. But it’s a third of what it was two decades ago, at the <a href="https://www.upi.com/Archives/1989/08/16/Colombia-records-worlds-highest-murder-rate/3970619243200/">peak of the country’s civil war</a>.</p>
<p>Certain areas, however, have seen in marked uptick in political violence. The majority of the slain activists live in remote rural areas of Colombia, in provinces like Cauca, Antioquia, Putumayo and Nariño. </p>
<p>Historically, the government has been either absent or very weak in these places. That allowed <a href="https://colombiareports.com/drug-guerrilla-violence-is-crippling-cauca/">guerrilla groups and drug cartels to emerge in these areas in the late 20th century</a>. These areas were home to some of the most brutal violence of Colombia’s civil conflict.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213429/original/file-20180405-189813-1a7p2n2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213429/original/file-20180405-189813-1a7p2n2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213429/original/file-20180405-189813-1a7p2n2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213429/original/file-20180405-189813-1a7p2n2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213429/original/file-20180405-189813-1a7p2n2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213429/original/file-20180405-189813-1a7p2n2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213429/original/file-20180405-189813-1a7p2n2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=930&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Roughly 75 percent of all Colombian human rights leaders killed in 2017 lived in areas where coca leaf is grown. Coca cultivation shaded in green. Areas where activists have been killed indicated with red outline.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia/The Conversation/Somos Defensores</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now, these targeted assassinations have local communities again living in fear. Evidence from both <a href="https://choco.org/documentos/informe-anual-2017-piedra-en-el-zapato.pdf">Colombian</a> and <a href="http://www.oas.org/en/iachr/media_center/PReleases/2018/065.asp">international researchers</a> suggests that the killings are a response to the Colombian government’s attempt to assert control over areas once overrun by organized crime. </p>
<p>The 2016 peace accord <a href="http://www.altocomisionadoparalapaz.gov.co/Documents/informes-especiales/plan-desarrollo-territorial/index.html">includes economic development provisions</a> formalizing the land ownership for peasants and <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/analysis/colombia-new-crop-substitution-plan-facing-old-obstacles-report/">helping coca-leaf growers plant legal crops like cacao and coffee</a>. Coca leaf, a mild stimulant traditionally consumed as a tea or chew in the Andes region, is also the main ingredient in cocaine. In Colombia, as in Bolivia – where <a href="http://time.com/4696338/bolivia-coca-cocaine-grow-morales/">coca cultivation is legal</a> – it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-coca-leaf-not-coffee-may-always-be-colombias-favourite-cash-crop-74723">largely grown as a subsistence crop by peasant farmers</a>. </p>
<p>These rural economic development initiatives are supposed to bring Colombia’s most marginalized citizens into the fold. In doing so, they threaten the various drug cartels and paramilitary groups that have become rich processing and trafficking illicit Colombian coca. These groups are now fighting back, targeting local organizers who <a href="http://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2018/03/20/onu-expresa-preocupacion-por-asesinatos-de-lideres-sociales-y-por-el-reclutamiento-de-ninos-en-colombia/">support the government’s plan</a>. </p>
<p>Research from the Colombian investigative news outlet Datasketch finds that almost <a href="http://especiales.datasketch.co/lideres-sociales/app.html">three-quarters</a> of activists killed in since November 2016 months reside in Colombia’s coca-growing countryside.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213285/original/file-20180404-189807-m8lxui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213285/original/file-20180404-189807-m8lxui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213285/original/file-20180404-189807-m8lxui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213285/original/file-20180404-189807-m8lxui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213285/original/file-20180404-189807-m8lxui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213285/original/file-20180404-189807-m8lxui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213285/original/file-20180404-189807-m8lxui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Colombia wants farmers who grow coca leaf, a traditional crop in the Andean highlands, to grow coffee and cacao instead.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Fernando Vergara</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="http://pacifista.co/programa-sustitucion-coca-santos-informe-fundacion-ideas-paz-proyecto-coca/">crop substitution strategy</a> is a bigger problem for criminal organizations in Colombia than the government’s prior strategy of forced coca eradication. That merely <a href="https://www.peaceinsight.org/blog/2013/10/war-on-drugs/">reduced supply, often leading coca prices to rise</a>, which actually benefited traffickers.</p>
<p>It’s unlikely that crop substitution <a href="https://www.elespectador.com/noticias/politica/95-de-programas-de-sustitucion-de-coca-no-llega-las-familias-cultivadoras-articulo-723861">could ever completely eliminate coca production in Colombia</a>. But the government investment, monitoring and intervention that comes with the process will greatly hurt business.</p>
<p>Cartels aren’t the only criminal groups threatened by Colombia’s new rural development initiatives. Datasketch also finds that <a href="http://especiales.datasketch.co/lideres-sociales/app.html">two-thirds of the 282 assassination victims</a> lived near illegal gold mines, which the government also plans to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/2016/10/illegal-gold-mining-fuels-violence-colombia-161005063014208.html">replace with legal operations</a>. </p>
<h2>Who’s killing Colombia’s activists</h2>
<p>The government’s response to <a href="https://www.elespectador.com/opinion/que-matan-lideres-sociales-que-importa-columna-708623">this wave of targeted violence</a> has been feeble, even contradictory. </p>
<p>Colombia has a general election this year, but only one presidential candidate regularly mentioned these assassinations on the campaign trail. That was former FARC commander Rodrigo Londoño – whose guerrilla group once terrorized these same populations. Londoño has <a href="https://theconversation.com/colombian-guerrilla-leader-ends-controversial-presidential-bid-giving-peace-a-chance-93200">since dropped out of the race for health reasons</a>.</p>
<p>Deputy Attorney General María Paulina Riveros has recognized the <a href="http://www.elcolombiano.com/colombia/paz-y-derechos-humanos/fiscalia-indaga-sobre-sistematicidad-en-asesinato-de-lideres-sociales-en-colombia-DI7903353">“systematic” political nature</a> of the killings, assuring Colombians that her office would investigate “all punishable acts.” </p>
<p>But Colombia’s minister of defense has insinuated – inexplicably – that the murders were <a href="https://www.elespectador.com/noticias/politica/asesinatos-de-lideres-son-por-lios-de-faldas-ministro-de-defensa-articulo-728893">crimes of passion</a>. </p>
<p>Currently, just <a href="https://somosdefensores.org/index.php/publicaciones/informes-siaddhh/149-piedra-en-el-zapato">70 percent of the activists’ murders are under investigation</a>. No perpetrator has been identified in the vast majority of cases. </p>
<p>In our assessment, paramilitaries – an umbrella term that describes many of <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-11400950">the illegal militia and organized crime groups</a> that did not disband during Colombia’s peace process – are the likely culprit. Almost <a href="https://somosdefensores.org/index.php/publicaciones/informes-siaddhh/149-piedra-en-el-zapato">80 percent of all death threats against activists have been traced back to them</a>.</p>
<h2>Kill activists, kill Colombia’s peace agreement</h2>
<p>The government’s tepid response to this wave of violence may turn out to be short-sighted. </p>
<p>Implementation of the accords has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/latest-threat-to-colombias-peace-process-murders-a-kidnapping-delays-and-of-course-politics-73895">slow</a>, largely because the government lacks the capacity to carry out its ambitious initiatives in parts of the country where, historically, it has exerted little control. President Juan Manuel Santos needs help to get his <a href="https://theconversation.com/colombia-has-a-new-peace-agreement-but-will-it-stick-69535">controversial peace deal</a> to take root nationwide. </p>
<p>Leaders from indigenous groups, Afro-Colombian communities and coca farmers – which together comprise 24 percent of Colombia’s population, according to <a href="https://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/estadisticas-por-tema/demografia-y-poblacion/censo-general-2005-1">Colombian census data</a> – could be critical allies in this process. </p>
<p>The community organizers under threat come from the conflict zones where the state is still struggling to enforce peace. They are human rights activists who are experts in the land conflicts and criminal economies of these regions. And, unlike the central government, our fieldwork has found, people actually trust them. </p>
<p>If the killings in Colombia aren’t stopped, a generation of potential leaders is facing extermination.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91602/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabio Andres Diaz is a research associate in the the Department of Political and International studies at Rhodes University in South Africa.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Magda Jiménez is a regional consultant for the Democratic Development Index of Latin America (IDD-LAT) and the Varieties Project at Democracy V-Dem. </span></em></p>Nearly 300 community organizers and activists have been killed in Colombia since the country’s 2016 peace accord. Who’s behind these targeted assassinations?Fabio Andrés Díaz Pabón, Researcher on Conflict, Peace and Development, International Institute of Social StudiesMagda Jiménez, Associate professor, Universidad Externado de ColombiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/905742018-02-22T11:40:22Z2018-02-22T11:40:22ZA record 29,000 Mexicans were murdered last year – can soldiers stop the bloodshed?<p>Mexico’s war on drugs has left <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com.mx/2017/11/23/pena-y-calderon-suman-234-mil-muertos-y-2017-es-oficialmente-el-ano-mas-violento-en-la-historia-reciente-de-mexico_a_23284/">234,966 people dead</a> in the last 11 years. In 2017 alone, the country saw some <a href="http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/incidencia-delictiva/incidencia-delictiva-datos-abiertos.php">29,000 murders</a>, the highest annual tally since such record-keeping began in 1997.</p>
<p>For years, incensed Mexicans have demanded that President Enrique Peña Nieto – now in the final stretch of his six-year term – take action. Recently, lawmakers from his Revolutionary Institutional Party proposed a controversial solution: <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-military-is-a-lethal-killing-force-should-it-really-be-deployed-as-police-75521">Put Mexico’s military on the streets to fight crime</a>.</p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://www.efe.com/efe/america/mexico/cientos-de-mexicanos-protestan-contra-la-ley-seguridad-interior/50000545-3473403">protests</a> and <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2017/12/15/mexico/1513305281_940878.html">warnings from human rights advocates</a>, who say the law will actually escalate violence, on Dec. 15, 2017, the <a href="http://www.animalpolitico.com/2017/12/ley-seguridad-interior-senado-aprobo/">Mexican Senate approved the Internal Security Law</a>. </p>
<p>Just before Christmas, Peña Nieto <a href="http://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5508716&fecha=21/12/2017">signed the legislation into law</a>. In response, activists <a href="http://www.proceso.com.mx/513459/tinen-rojo-fuentes-la-cdmx-en-protesta-la-ley-seguridad-interior">poured red paint</a> in fountains across Mexico City to symbolize the bloodshed it would usher in.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"936709494838583296"}"></div></p>
<h2>A military history of massacres</h2>
<p>I’ve been <a href="https://scholars.uow.edu.au/display/luis_gomez_romero">studying</a> the violence in my home country for decades. While something must be done to stem the bloodshed, history shows that militarizing law enforcement will hurt rather than help.</p>
<p>Mexico’s military has actually been fighting crime informally for over a decade. In 2006, former President Felipe Calderón sent <a href="http://calderon.presidencia.gob.mx/2006/12/anuncio-sobre-la-operacion-conjunta-michoacan/">6,500 soldiers</a> to battle cartels in the state of Michoacán. And they never really stopped. </p>
<p>The consequences have been grave. Between 2012 and 2016, Mexico’s attorney general launched 505 investigations into alleged <a href="https://www.wola.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WOLA_MILITARY-CRIMES_REP_ENGLISH.pdf">human rights abuses</a> – including torture and forced disappearances – committed by the military. </p>
<p>In 2014, soldiers shot 22 unarmed citizens in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/03/mexican-soldiers-ordered-to-kill-in-san-pedro-limon-claim-rights-activists">the town of Tlatlaya</a>. Later that year, the army was allegedly involved in the <a href="https://aristeguinoticias.com/2511/mexico/la-verdadera-noche-de-iguala-la-historia-que-se-ha-querido-ocultar-primeroscapitulos/">unsolved kidnapping</a> of 43 students from a teachers college in southern Mexico. </p>
<p>Much of the military’s extrajudicial violence is undocumented and investigations move slowly, so crimes by the armed forces have been difficult to prosecute. In 11 years, <a href="https://www.wola.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WOLA_MILITARY-CRIMES_REP_ENGLISH.pdf">only 16 soldiers</a> have been convicted of human rights abuses in civilian courts. </p>
<p>Supporters of the Internal Security Law, including Secretary of Defense <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2017/11/30/mexico/1512068744_934615.html">Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos</a>, say the new law will right this wrong. By providing a legal framework for the armed forces to take on law enforcement duties, it ensures stricter regulation and more oversight. </p>
<p>Security experts, on the other hand, call the Internal Security Law <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCjHt9kNUrk">dangerous</a>, saying it delays much-needed police reforms and violates <a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Mexico_2015.pdf?lang=en">the Mexican Constitution</a>, which prohibits using the military for Mexico’s public security.</p>
<h2>The authoritarian connection</h2>
<p>The idea of “internal security” has a <a href="https://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=35964">dark genealogy</a> in Mexican law. It first appeared just after the country’s independence from Spain, in 1822. According to the short-lived Emperor Agustín de Iturbide, <a href="http://www.ordenjuridico.gob.mx/Constitucion/1823.pdf">his government had the right to protect</a> “the internal order and the external security” of the fledgling nation. </p>
<p>In practice, that meant <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Siglo_de_caudillos.html?id=uuBVAAAAMAAJ&redir_esc=y">persecuting</a> those who had opposed Iturbide’s dissolution of Congress and proclamation of himself as Mexico’s new emperor.</p>
<p>Authoritarian regimes have since invoked “internal security” – which made its way into the country’s 1917 constitution – to fight all sorts of rebels, from <a href="http://www.memoriapoliticademexico.org/Efemerides/1/17011873.html">revolutionaries</a> to student liberals to <a href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0185-25742010000100005">indigenous discontents</a>.</p>
<p>The new Internal Security Law continues this tradition, giving the president <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/LSInt_211217.pdf">the right to order federal authorities, including the army and the navy</a>, to intervene when other federal and local forces cannot handle certain “threats to internal security.” </p>
<p>Built-in safeguards are supposed to prevent the government from abusing this power. Within 72 hours of such a threat emerging, the president must publish a “designation of protection” that details the specific place and limited time frame of military occupation. </p>
<p>In practice, though, these requirements are optional. <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/LSInt_211217.pdf">In cases of “grave danger,”</a> the law says, the president can take “immediate action.” </p>
<p>The new law contains other concerning contradictions. <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/LSInt_211217.pdf">One article</a> states that peaceful protests do not constitute a threat to Mexico’s internal security. This should avoid a repeat of the <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=97546687">1968 Tlatelolco massacre</a>, in which soldiers in Mexico City gunned down hundreds of student demonstrators. </p>
<p>But <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/LSInt_211217.pdf">another article of the law may undermine that provision</a> by deeming “controlling, repelling or neutralizing acts of resistance” to be a legitimate use of military force.</p>
<h2>The most challenged law</h2>
<p>Mexican human rights advocates aren’t the only ones alarmed by the new law. In December, both the <a href="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/54ff874b5ab8ff86ab68f4f15/files/98325428-ba9e-4fb1-9f4e-1872076742da/20171218_ComPrensa_LSI.pdf">United Nations</a> and <a href="http://alzatuvoz.org/n3/correos/comunicados/archivos/20171218-%20Carta%20de%20Salil%20Shetty%20a%20Enrique%20Pe%C3%B1a%20Nieto%20-%20Ley%20de%20Seguridad.pdf">Amnesty International</a> asked the president to veto it. </p>
<p>Instead, Peña Nieto approved the law but <a href="https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/es/articulos/43-sesion-del-consejo-nacional-de-seguridad-publica-141727?idiom=eshttps://www.gob.mx/presidencia/es/articulos/43-sesion-del-consejo-nacional-de-seguridad-publica-141727?idiom=es">declared</a> that it would not be enforced until the Supreme Court can review its constitutionality.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court has now received thousands of legal challenges to the Internal Security Law. Suits alleging that the law encroaches on Mexicans’ basic rights were filed by Mexico’s <a href="https://twitter.com/CNDH/status/954531772422815746?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elsoldemexico.com.mx%2Fmexico%2Fjusticia%2Fcndh-presenta-accion-de-inconstitucionalidad-contra-ley-de-seguridad-interior-577377.html">National Human Rights Commission</a>, <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/seguridad/diputados-presentan-accion-de-inconstitucionalidad-contra-ley-de-seguridad">188 congressmen</a> and <a href="https://aristeguinoticias.com/1901/mexico/senadores-presentaron-accion-de-inconstitucionalidad-contra-ley-de-seguridad-quebranta-el-pacto-federal-argumentan/">43 senators</a>. More than <a href="http://www.reforma.com/aplicacioneslibre/articulo/default.aspx?id=1314820&md5=db6def01dee25f566c20421d9edaa502&ta=0dfdbac11765226904c16cb9ad1b2efe&lcmd5=12328cc9cec0eb5369c5690feee524d0">12,000</a> citizens have also submitted individual complaints on similar grounds. On Feb. 12, the hugely <a href="https://twitter.com/Javier_Corral/status/963152949080813568">popular governor of Chihuahua, Javier Corral</a>, traveled to Mexico City to personally file a claim in the name of the people of his state.</p>
<p>No date has yet been set for the 11 Supreme Court justices to hear arguments.</p>
<h2>The problem with the police</h2>
<p>Another consequence of the Internal Security Law, in my analysis, is that it will further weaken Mexico’s already troubled police force.</p>
<p>According to a <a href="http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/doc/Diagnostico_Nacional_MOFP.pdf">December 2017 government report</a>, Mexico has just 0.8 police officers per 1,000 inhabitants – less than half what the U.N. – recommends. </p>
<p>The report also notes that just 1 in 4 officers has received sufficient training. And out of 39 police academies, only 6 satisfy the minimum conditions – for example, dormitories, medical services or training infrastructure – to be considered fully functional. </p>
<p>Mexico’s police are also widely perceived as <a href="https://www.transparency.org/gcb2013/country?country=mexico">corrupt</a> and <a href="http://www.udlap.mx/igimex/assets/files/igimex2016_ESP.pdf">ineffective</a>. In part, that’s due to their low salaries. Currently, officers in poor states like Chiapas and Tabasco earn about half the federally recommended minimum monthly salary of 9,993 pesos, or US$500. </p>
<p>To supplement their poverty wages, as Mexicans well know, many police officers have traditionally turned to <a href="https://abelquezada.mx/index.php/personajes/11-galeria-de-personajes/13-el-policia">petty bribery</a>. More recently, some police have gotten involved in more lucrative criminal activity, <a href="https://www.infobae.com/america/mexico/2017/07/06/la-linea-el-nuevo-grupo-criminal-que-se-perfila-como-el-modelo-de-los-carteles-mexicanos-del-futuro/">working with the same drug cartels</a> they’re supposed to be fighting.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bKjn26agAEs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Distrust of the police is a common trope in Mexican pop culture.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Successive Mexican governments have used the shortcomings in the police force to justify sending in soldiers and marines, claiming it’s a <a href="http://www.animalpolitico.com/blogueros-ruta-critica/2017/01/18/la-permanente-intervencion-temporal-del-ejercito/">provisional measure to get crime under control</a> while the police are professionalized. The new law has turned this temporary solution into national policy. </p>
<h2>A spectacular failure</h2>
<p>The military <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/10/mexico-drug-cartels-soldiers-military?CMP=share_btn_tw">is not exempt</a> from corruption. </p>
<p>The brutal Zetas cartel, infamous for <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/08/06/mexico.drug.cartels/index.html">beheadings and indiscriminate slaughter</a>, was <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=GrMmHs7ArpwC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false">originally formed</a> by deserters of the Mexican army’s elite special forces. </p>
<p>The claim that the military can keep Mexicans safe was recently put to its first test. In January President Peña Nieto <a href="http://www.animalpolitico.com/2018/01/pena-nieto-violencia-reynosa/">had to cancel a trip</a> to the city of Reynosa, in Tamaulipas state, where criminal groups have been violently clashing. The army said it could not guarantee his safety there. </p>
<p>If the military cannot even protect the president, Mexicans ask, what hope do the people have?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis Gómez Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Exactly 234,966 people have died in Mexico’s 11-year drug war. Now the government wants to deploy soldiers to criminal hot spots, a move many fear will just increase violence and weaken the police.Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/899042018-01-10T11:39:14Z2018-01-10T11:39:14ZWhy is El Salvador so dangerous? 4 essential reads<p><em>Editor’s note: This is a roundup of material from The Conversation archive.</em></p>
<p>The Department of Homeland Security has confirmed that it will <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-administration-to-end-provisional-residency-for-200000-salvadorans/2018/01/08/badfde90-f481-11e7-beb6-c8d48830c54d_story.html?utm_term=.4f3bca31ac50">eliminate the Temporary Protected Status</a> that gave provisional U.S. residency to Salvadoran migrants after a 2001 earthquake. Some 200,000 Salvadorans now have until Sept. 9, 2019, to leave the United States, obtain a green card or be deported. </p>
<p>According to a <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/news/2018/01/08/secretary-homeland-security-kirstjen-m-nielsen-announcement-temporary-protected">Jan. 8 DHS statement</a>, the decision was made “after a review of the disaster-related conditions upon which the country’s original designation was based,” which determined that they “no longer exist.”</p>
<p>Immigration advocates have condemned the move, saying it <a href="https://theintercept.com/2018/01/08/el-salvador-immigration-tps-trump/">overlooks El Salvador’s extreme violence</a>, which has surged since the Bush administration first offered Salvadorans protective status. With 81.2 murders per 100,000 people in 2016, El Salvador is <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/analysis/insight-crime-2016-homicide-round-up/">the deadliest place in the world that’s not a war zone</a>. More than 5,200 people were killed there in 2016.</p>
<p>How did El Salvador become so violent? These four articles shed some light on the country’s complex crime problem. Spoiler: It’s not just about the gangs.</p>
<h2>1. It all started in the U.S.</h2>
<p>President Donald Trump and Attorney General Jeff Sessions often claim that lax immigration policies allowed fearsome Central American gangs like MS-13 to spread from El Salvador into the U.S.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/central-american-gangs-like-ms-13-were-born-out-of-failed-anti-crime-policies-76554">truth is quite the opposite</a>, writes Florida International University professor José Miguel Cruz. </p>
<p>“The street gang Mara Salvatrucha 13, commonly known as MS-13, was born in the United States,” he explains. </p>
<p>Formed in Los Angeles in the early 1980s by the children of Salvadoran immigrants who’d fled that country’s civil war, MS-13 was at first just “kids who met hanging out on street corners,” writes Cruz.</p>
<p>It wasn’t until the early 2000s that the group spread into Central America. There, it has brutally deployed extortion, human smuggling and drug trafficking, terrorizing neighborhoods and helping to turn the so-called Northern Triangle – El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras – into the world’s deadliest place. </p>
<h2>2. It’s not just El Salvador</h2>
<p>El Salvador may be particularly dangerous, but it isn’t <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-fix-latin-americas-homicide-problem-79731">the only Latin American country facing a homicide epidemic</a>, writes Robert Muggah, a Brazilian crime researcher. </p>
<p>As a whole, “Latin America is where the most murders in the world happen,” Muggah writes. Home to just 8 percent of the world’s population, the region sees over 38 percent of global homicides. Every day some 400 Latin Americans are killed.</p>
<p>Many factors contribute to this homicide epidemic, according to Muggah, including “the war on drugs, abundant unlicensed firearms, persistently unequal gender relations and, in Mexico and Central America, thousands of marginalized, uprooted, and sometimes convicted U.S. deportees.”</p>
<p>Governments have responded to rising violence by sinking money into police forces, prosecutors and prisons. It hasn’t worked, Muggah writes. Only 20 percent of murders in Latin America results in conviction. And in San Salvador, El Salvador – last year the seventh-deadliest city in the world – just 10 percent do. </p>
<h2>3. Women can be targets</h2>
<p>“Criminal violence, while potent, is just part of a dangerous cocktail” of crime in Central America, <a href="https://theconversation.com/fracking-mining-murder-the-killer-agenda-driving-migration-in-mexico-and-central-america-67822">writes Ariadna Estévez of Mexico’s National Autonomous University</a>. </p>
<p>For example, in 2015, Honduras had the highest rate of feminicide – or female murder – in the world. Environmental advocates who stand up to illegal mining and other kinds of resource exploitation in Central America are also frequent targets of violence.</p>
<p>Those two facts are not unrelated, Estévez warns. “It’s a common mistake to consider violence against women a private, non-political act. But women are often on the front lines of activism” she writes, because they tend to fight against activities that are “harmful to their children, homes and communities.”</p>
<h2>4. El Salvador’s government isn’t helping</h2>
<p>José Miguel Cruz agrees that gangs like MS-13 are not the sole cause of crime in Central America. Rather, he contends, they are “largely a symptom of a far more critical issue plaguing the region – namely, corruption.” </p>
<p>According to Cruz, groups like MS-13 have grown and thrived <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-central-america-gangs-like-ms-13-are-bad-but-corrupt-politicians-may-be-worse-86113">in El Salvador because the political class protects them</a>. In August, prosecutors there showed that the country’s two main political parties had colluded with MS-13 and other gangs, paying more than US$300,000 for help winning the 2014 presidential election. </p>
<p>The same nexus between government and organized crime has been exposed across Central America, where political institutions routinely shield gangs in exchange for economic support and political backing in the barrios they control. Few are ever prosecuted for this crime, Cruz says. </p>
<p>That erodes Central Americans’ belief in the rule of law, which, in turn, makes it harder to fight violence. “Root out corruption in the Central American ruling class,” he wagers, “and the gangs and crooks will go down with it.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89904/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The U.S. government has ended the protective status of 200,000 Salvadoran migrants. If deported, they would go back to one of the world’s deadliest places. How did violence in El Salvador get so bad?Catesby Holmes, International Editor | Politics Editor, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/887472017-12-21T14:21:28Z2017-12-21T14:21:28ZWhy 2017 was so terrible for Mexico: 8 essential reads<p>With three runaway governors, two deadly earthquakes and one Donald J. Trump – not to mention an average 69 murders a day – the past year has been rough on Mexico. </p>
<p>As Americas editor, it has been my job to bring expert analysis of these painful events to an international audience throughout 2017. Admittedly, it wasn’t my favorite task: I have lived and worked in Mexico on several occasions, and it’s hard to see a country that feels like home struggle so much. </p>
<p>So, to commemorate the end of a very bad year, here are seven articles that lay out why 2017 was so terrible for Mexico — plus one slightly rosier perspective. </p>
<h2>1 and 2. Donald Trump</h2>
<p>On Jan. 21, 2017, the United States inaugurated as president a man who throughout his campaign attacked Mexico on Twitter and in person. </p>
<p>So it was unsurprising when, six days into his administration, Donald Trump’s first international crisis was <a href="https://theconversation.com/twitter-diplomacy-how-trump-is-using-social-media-to-spur-a-crisis-with-mexico-71981">a diplomatic standoff with Mexico</a>. </p>
<p>It all played out – where else? – on Twitter. After signing a series of executive orders cracking down on immigration, the U.S. president threatened to repeal the North American Free Trade Agreement, tweeting that Mexico had “taken advantage of the U.S. for long enough.”</p>
<p>President Enrique Peña Nieto, who had previously welcomed candidate Trump to Mexico, stayed calm early on. At first Peña Nieto’s plan for dealing with the U.S. president’s belligerence was “to respond to his hostility with conciliatory gestures and goodwill,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-will-mexico-deal-with-the-donald-71067">says political commentator Carlos Bravo Regidor</a>.</p>
<p>But then Trump tweeted that he would cancel an upcoming meeting with Peña Nieto if Mexico refused to fund the construction of a “badly needed” southern border wall.</p>
<p>“Even for mild Peña Nieto this was too much,” comments Luís Gómez Romero, a political scientist at Australia’s University of Wollongong. Mexico’s president canceled his meeting with Trump on Jan. 26 – not with a press conference but, yes, via Twitter. </p>
<h2>3. Two earthquakes</h2>
<p>Nature brought chaos to Mexico in 2017, too. In September, the country was rocked by deadly twin earthquakes. </p>
<p>The first, a magnitude-8.2 Sept. 7 quake, was the strongest to hit Mexico in a century. It killed nearly 100 people in the southern states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, in <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-seismologists-didnt-see-mexicos-deadly-earthquake-coming-83865">an area previously thought to be seismically inactive</a>.</p>
<p>“The Tehuantepec region is actually one of the few parts of Mexico’s Pacific coast that had never suffered a major earthquake,” commented seismologist Luis Quintanar Robles, of Mexico’s National Autonomous University, after the disaster. Previously, scientists believed the Tehuantepec gap to be aseismic, or unlikely to cause a quake.</p>
<p>Weeks later, Mexico City was convulsed by a second earthquake, which toppled thousands of buildings and killed over 350 people. It was the country’s deadliest earthquake since a 1985 killer caused some 15,000 to 30,000 casualties in and around Mexico City.</p>
<h2>4. Rampant corruption</h2>
<p>Donald Trump wasn’t the only politician giving Mexicans a headache in 2017, <a href="https://theconversation.com/governors-gone-wild-mexico-faces-a-lost-generation-of-corrupt-leaders-76858">says Luís Gómez Romero</a>. Three state governors were arrested abroad while trying to escape justice. </p>
<p>Among them was Roberto Borge of Quintana Roo, home to the tourist mecca of Cancun. In June, he was apprehended in Panama after fleeing accusations of, among other crimes, using thugs to drive people out of beachfront hotels after illegally seizing the properties.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, former Veracruz governor Javier Duarte was detained for not only allegedly stealing almost US$3 billion from his home state but also for allegedly diverting health funds meant for children with cancer. </p>
<p>“Rather than receive the chemotherapy medication Avastin, the children were dispensed distilled water,” Gómez Romero explains.</p>
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<p>By fall 2017, he says, fully 11 of Mexico’s 32 governors were under investigation or fighting prosecution for corruption. On Dec. 20, a high-profile ally of President Enrique Peña Nieto was arrested on charges of campaign-finance embezzlement.</p>
<p>Public malfeasance is “pretty old news in Mexico,” Gómez Romero says. But “by any measure, graft in Mexico has reached stunning new highs this year.”</p>
<h2>5. Record violence</h2>
<p>Homicides did, too. With 20,878 murders reported by November, 2017 is officially Mexico’s deadliest year since such data was first published in 1997.</p>
<p>On average, 69 people are murdered and 13 “disappear” daily in Mexico. In one particularly bloody month, October 2017, there were 2,371 murders in 31 days. </p>
<p>“This nightmare of unremitting violence is inflicted by both criminal organizations and agents of the Mexican state,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-mexico-actually-the-worlds-second-most-murderous-nation-77897">writes Gómez Romero</a>, who attributes the country’s high homicide rates to the government’s 11-year war on drug cartels.</p>
<h2>6. Soldiers gone wild</h2>
<p>To tackle crime, in December Congress approved legislation allowing the Mexican military to take over law enforcement duties. Security analysts and human rights advocates strongly opposed the Internal Security Law, saying it will only increase casualties.</p>
<p>When the idea was first floated back in April, Gómez Romero wrote a <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-military-is-a-lethal-killing-force-should-it-really-be-deployed-as-police-75521">scathing assessment</a> that credited the military – a “lethal killing force” – for the drug war’s already unacceptable death toll. </p>
<p>After the Internal Security Law’s hasty congressional approval in December, which has triggered protest in the country, Gómez Romero commented that “the militarization of Mexico [is] a painful episode” for Mexico.</p>
<h2>7. Political disarray</h2>
<p>Violence and corruption have turned many Mexicans against President Peña Nieto, whose approval rating hit 26 percent by November 2017. This voter anger is shaking up Mexico’s 2018 presidential campaign, <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-angry-voters-reject-major-parties-mexicos-2018-presidential-race-grows-chaotic-86040">notes pollster Salvador Vázquez del Mercado</a>. </p>
<p>“Mexico’s 2018 campaign season has not officially begun, but the race for the presidency is already a nail-biter, featuring a powerful ruling party, dozens of independent aspirants…and very strange bedfellows,” he observes. </p>
<p>To defeat Peña Nieto’s incumbent PRI party, numerous right- and left-wing parties have teamed up to form coalitions that Vázquez del Mercado calls “ideologically incoherent.” </p>
<p>Resistance to these strange alliances, both within parties and among the citizenry, has been fierce.</p>
<h2>8. Economic ups and downs</h2>
<p>Concern about the Trump presidency also unsettled Mexico’s economy. The peso dropped 15 percent after the U.S. election, hitting a modern historic low value of 21.95 pesos to the U.S. dollar by late January 2017. It took six months to recover.</p>
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<p>Mexico’s economy has suffered from Trump’s attacks on NAFTA, which he has called “the worst trade deal ever.” Talks are now underway to renegotiate the 33-year-old agreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico.</p>
<p>While Mexico has benefited hugely from reduced tariffs on its exports to neighbors, reshaping NAFTA may <a href="https://theconversation.com/reshaping-nafta-could-be-good-for-mexicos-economy-and-brazils-and-argentinas-too-76204">actually have some upsides for the country</a>, say Asit Biswas and Cecelia Torjada of the Institute for Water Policy at Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.</p>
<p>NAFTA has been good for American farmers but rough on their Mexican counterparts, depressing domestic agricultural production. That, in turn, has endangered Mexico’s ability to grow enough of its own food.</p>
<p>Fearing a NAFTA repeal, the country is now diversifying its trading partners, offering U.S.-style favorable terms to Argentina, Brazil and other major agricultural exporters. It is also trying to help Mexican farmers produce more crops.</p>
<p>“Mexico has more policy options than it thinks,” say Biswas and Torjada of a NAFTA rewrite. “And it may have less to lose than its northern neighbor.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88747/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Three runaway governors. Two deadly earthquakes. One Donald J. Trump. Here’s why the past year hasn’t been the kindest to Mexico.Catesby Holmes, International Editor | Politics Editor, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/858362017-10-30T05:05:39Z2017-10-30T05:05:39ZFactCheck Q&A: did government gun buybacks reduce the number of gun deaths in Australia?<p><strong>The Conversation fact-checks claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9.35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
<hr>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xmyrdhcBIbQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, October 16, 2017.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<blockquote>
<p>Q&A AUDIENCE MEMBER: The government-funded buybacks in 1996 and 2003 cost $700 million. However, research shows these have had no effect in reducing the number of firearm deaths. </p>
<p>TIM FISCHER: Look, the statistics can be looked at as lies, damned lies and statistics, but a fair take on those stats, I think, would lead the average Australian to believe, correctly, there has been a reduction in gun deaths in this country since John Howard spearheaded the firearm agreement between the federal government and the state governments since the legislation passed, since the buyback took place.</p>
<p><strong>– Excerpts from a conversation between Q&A audience member Diana Melham and former deputy prime minister Tim Fischer, <a href="https://youtu.be/xmyrdhcBIbQ">on Q&A</a>, October 19, 2017</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191262/original/file-20171022-13979-zikggi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191262/original/file-20171022-13979-zikggi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191262/original/file-20171022-13979-zikggi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191262/original/file-20171022-13979-zikggi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191262/original/file-20171022-13979-zikggi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191262/original/file-20171022-13979-zikggi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191262/original/file-20171022-13979-zikggi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191262/original/file-20171022-13979-zikggi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former deputy prime minister Tim Fischer responds to an audience member on Q&A.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABC Q&A</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/02/us/las-vegas-shooting-live-updates.html">mass shooting in Las Vegas</a> earlier this month once <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/las-vegas-shooting-australia-gun-laws-control-stephen-paddock-2nd-amendment-nevada-firearm-a7980671.html">again</a> turned <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/8/27/9212725/australia-buyback">international</a> <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/las-vegas-gun-violence-and-the-failing-american-state">attention</a> to Australia’s strict gun laws.</p>
<p>Just days after the shooting, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced Australians had handed in <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australian-illegal-guns-amnesty-51000-weapons-firearms-malcolm-turnbull-las-vegas-stephen-paddock-a7986136.html">51,000 illegal firearms</a> during a three-month <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22media%2Fpressrel%2F5339243%22">national firearms amnesty</a>.</p>
<p>On an episode of Q&A, audience member Diana Melham, who is executive director of the Sporting Shooters Association of Australia NSW branch, challenged former deputy prime minister Tim Fischer on the effectiveness of the gun buybacks he helped usher in as part of the Howard government’s sweeping gun reforms following the Port Arthur massacre in 1996. </p>
<p>Melham said “research shows” the government-funded gun buybacks in 1996 and 2003 have had “no effect in reducing the number of firearms deaths”. Fischer responded that a “fair take” on the statistics would show there has been a reduction in gun deaths since the reforms were introduced and the buybacks took place.</p>
<p>So, what does the research show? </p>
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<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>When asked for sources to support his response, Tim Fischer referred The Conversation to research published by Christine Neill and Andrew Leigh in <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/CICrimJust/2008/22.html">2008</a> and <a href="http://andrewleigh.org/pdf/gunbuyback_panel.pdf">2010</a>. Fischer also pointed to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/12/australia-tim-fischer-us-guns/418698/">an Atlantic article</a>, saying it affirmed his claim that “you are 15 times more likely to be shot dead in the USA than Australia on a proven per capita basis”.</p>
<p>Diana Melham provided The Conversation with a response on behalf of the Sporting Shooters Association of Australia (NSW), and quoted a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1465-7287.2009.00165.x/abstract">study</a> by Wang-Sheng Lee and Sandy Suardi, who concluded the National Firearms Agreement “did not have any large effects on reducing firearm homicide or suicide rates”.</p>
<p>Melham also referred to Australian Bureau of Statistics data and an Australian Institute of Health and Welfare report. You can read her full response <a href="http://theconversation.com/full-response-from-a-qanda-audience-member-for-a-factcheck-on-gun-buybacks-and-gun-deaths-86052">here</a>. </p>
<hr>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Tim Fischer was correct when he said there has been “a reduction in gun deaths in this country” since the Howard government introduced stricter gun laws in 1996, and since the 1996 and 2003 gun buybacks took place.</p>
<p>In the two decades following the reforms, the annual rate of gun deaths fell from 2.9 per 100,000 in 1996 to 0.9 per 100,000 in 2016. </p>
<p>Does research show that the 1996 and 2003 gun buybacks had “no effect” on that reduction in firearm deaths, as Diana Melham said? First of all, it’s not possible to disentangle any effect of the gun buybacks from the rest of the gun reforms introduced at the same time. </p>
<p>Some researchers have concluded the reforms as a whole had little effect on reducing the number of gun deaths in Australia. But other researchers have concluded the reforms did have an effect. </p>
<p>What we can say with certainty is that in the 15 years prior to the first gun buyback in 1996, there had been 13 mass shootings in Australia. In the 21 years since more restrictive firearm policies came into effect, there has not been a single mass shooting in the country.</p>
<hr>
<h2>What prompted the 1996 and 2003 gun buyback schemes?</h2>
<p>Between 1981 and 1996, there were <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2530362">13 mass shooting</a> incidents in Australia in which a total of 104 people were killed and 52 injured. This culminated in the <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/04/27/port-arthur-interactive-events-day-and-their-lasting-impact-australian-society">1996 massacre</a> in Port Arthur, Tasmania, where 35 people were killed.</p>
<p>Twelve days after the Port Arthur massacre, then prime minister John Howard enacted sweeping gun control measures. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2796929-1996-National-Firearms-Agreement.html">1996 National Firearms Agreement</a> covered a <a href="http://www.loc.gov/law/help/firearms-control/australia.php">raft of measures</a>, including:</p>
<ul>
<li>restrictions on automatic and semi-automatic rifles and pump action rifles and shotguns</li>
<li>stricter requirements for the registration of all firearms, and </li>
<li>stricter requirements for the storage of all firearms.</li>
</ul>
<p>The agreement also included a national gun buyback scheme, which saw the surrender of <a href="https://www.loc.gov/law/help/firearms-control/australia.php#f22">more than 640,000</a> firearms, mainly rifles and shotguns.</p>
<p>In 2002, more national reforms were introduced, this time focused on <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/rpp/100-120/rpp116/06_reforms.html">controlling illegal trade</a> in firearms and restricting the use of handguns. In 2003, <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2004A01144">another national handgun buyback scheme</a> was instituted.</p>
<p>According to this <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/0708/FirearmsAustralia">parliamentary source</a>, the 1996 and 2003 gun buyback schemes cost taxpayers just under $628 million, somewhat less than the $700 million Melham quoted.</p>
<p>So, what does research show about the effectiveness of the reforms?</p>
<h2>Has the number of gun deaths reduced?</h2>
<p>First of all, let’s look at Australian Bureau of Statistics data on changes in annual firearm death rates, both before and after the 1996 reforms were introduced. </p>
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<p>In the two decades following the gun reforms, there was a reduction in the annual rate of gun deaths – from 2.9 per 100,000 in 1996 to 0.9 per 100,000 in 2016. </p>
<p>So it’s true that gun deaths reduced following the 1996 and 2003 firearm reforms and gun buybacks, as Fischer said. </p>
<p>But we can also see that firearm death rates began falling before the reforms and buybacks took place, as Melham said. Australian Bureau of Statistics data show that the annual rate of gun deaths fell from 5 per 100,000 in 1980 to 2.7 per 100,000 in 1995.</p>
<p>So it’s hard to tell from these data alone what effect the gun buyback schemes and tighter restrictions on firearms had on this decline.</p>
<h2>Did the reduction in gun related deaths accelerate after 1996?</h2>
<p>A number of academic papers have asked whether the rates of firearm related deaths decreased more rapidly after Port Arthur than they were decreasing beforehand.</p>
<p>The authors of this <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1465-7287.2009.00165.x/full">study published in 2010</a> used “<a href="https://www.stata.com/features/overview/structural-breaks/">structural break tests</a>” to examine whether there were points in time where the downward trends in firearm related death rates suddenly accelerated. They concluded that there was “little evidence to suggest that [the National Firearms Agreement] had any significant effects on firearm homicides and suicides”.</p>
<p>However, other studies using different statistical approaches have reached somewhat different conclusions. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article-abstract/47/3/455/566026">2006 paper</a> found that firearm related suicide rates from 1997 to 2004 were lower than predicted by the trends in previous years. This would suggest that the firearm legislation and buybacks <em>may</em> have reduced firearm <em>suicide</em> rates. Firearm related <em>homicides</em> remained in line with the trends from before the 1996 reforms.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2530362">2016 analysis</a> found that rates of firearm related homicides and suicides “declined more rapidly” between 1997 and 2013 compared with before 1997. But there was also a decline in <em>nonfirearm</em> suicide and homicide deaths during that time of a greater magnitude. Because of this, the authors said it wasn’t possible to determine whether the change in firearm deaths could be attributed to the gun law reforms. </p>
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<h2>The case of Victoria</h2>
<p>In Victoria, firearm reforms were introduced in 1988, eight years earlier than the rest of the country, following <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Australia">two mass shootings</a> in the state. The reforms <a href="https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/bitstream/2123/8938/1/Over-our-dead-bodies_Chapman.pdf">tightened restrictions</a> on semiautomatic longarms, but did not include a gun buyback. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/10/5/280.short">2004 study</a> found “a significant downward trend” in firearm related deaths between 1988 and 1995 in Victoria compared with the rest of Australia. Following the National Firearms Agreement in 1996, “similar strong declines occurred in the rest of Australia”. </p>
<p>The authors concluded that “dramatic reductions in overall firearm related deaths and particularly suicides by firearms were achieved in the context of the implementation of strong regulatory reform”.</p>
<p>The chart below shows the drop in firearm related deaths in Victoria following the 1998 gun reforms in that state – a drop greater than that seen across the rest of Australia. Following the 1996 national reforms, the death rate for the rest of Australia dropped to a level comparable to Victoria. </p>
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<h2>Comparing reductions in gun deaths across states</h2>
<p>There were also differences between states in the number of guns handed in during the 1996 buyback. Tasmanian residents handed back guns at <a href="http://ftp.iza.org/dp4995.pdf">the highest rate</a>.</p>
<p>In his response, Fischer referred to a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/aler/article-abstract/12/2/509/99272">2010 study</a>, which compared firearm deaths before (1990-1995) and after (1998-2003) the National Firearms Agreement.</p>
<p>The study found a “statistically significant decline in firearm deaths in states with higher firearm buyback rates”. There was a similar effect for firearm homicide rates, though this was less robust due to the small number of firearm homicide deaths to begin with.</p>
<p>The authors said the paper “provides evidence that reduced access to firearms lowers firearm death rates”.</p>
<p>However, the authors acknowledged it was hard to work out <em>which</em> aspect of the National Firearms Agreement was most effective, and that the results should be interpreted as a reflection of the <em>combination</em> of the gun buybacks and stricter regulations, not one or the other. </p>
<h2>Conclusions</h2>
<p>Overall, it’s clear that the gun buybacks in 1996 and 2003 and related firearm restrictions were followed by decreases in overall gun deaths, including firearm related homicides and suicides.</p>
<p>What’s less clear is the <em>cause</em> of these decreases.</p>
<p>The difficulty is that there’s no alternative universe in which the buyback and restrictions <em>didn’t</em> take place. So it’s impossible to rule out the possibility that reductions in gun deaths were caused by factors unrelated to the buyback schemes and more restrictive firearm policies. </p>
<p>Some peer reviewed studies have found that the gun buybacks and stricter regulations led to a decline in the number of gun related deaths – and suicides in particular. Some studies found the National Firearms Agreement overall had modest effects, while other studies were inconclusive.</p>
<p>What is not in dispute is that in the 15 years prior to 1996, there had been <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2530362">13 mass shootings</a> in Australia, in which a total of 104 people were killed and 52 were injured.</p>
<p>In the 21 years since more restrictive firearm policies came into effect in Australia, there <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Australia">has not been</a> a single mass shooting in the country. <strong>– David Bright</strong></p>
<h2>Blind review #1</h2>
<p>I agree with the verdict of this FactCheck. </p>
<p>This analysis is thorough and relies on a variety of sources to evidence the conclusions drawn. The author rightly points out that there is no one cause that can be attributed to the decline in gun related deaths in Australia.</p>
<p>The author has correctly highlighted that since the introduction of tough gun laws and firearm buybacks in Australia, we have not suffered a mass shooting of the likes of Port Arthur. This is in contrast to the US, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/six-things-to-know-about-mass-shootings-in-america-48934">mass shootings have been increasing over time</a>. <strong>– Terry Goldsworthy</strong> </p>
<h2>Blind review #2</h2>
<p>I agree with the FactCheck verdict and I think this is a fair and balanced review. <strong>– Don Weatherburn</strong></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
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<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit is the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bright receives funding from Australian Research Council, Australian Institute of Criminology, National Drug Law Enforcement Research Fund. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Weatherburn and Terry Goldsworthy do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Did the government-funded gun buybacks introduced after the Port Arthur massacre have “no effect” in reducing gun deaths in Australia, as an audience member claimed on Q&A? Let’s look at the evidence.David Bright, Associate Professor in Criminology, Centre for Crime Policy and Research, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/850562017-10-03T10:08:12Z2017-10-03T10:08:12ZHow dangerous people get their weapons in America<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/02/us/las-vegas-shooting.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-ab-top-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news">recent mass shooting</a> in Las Vegas that left dozens of people dead and hundreds injured raises two important questions: How do dangerous people get their guns? And what should the police and courts be doing to make those transactions more difficult? </p>
<p>The fact is that, even leaving aside the assault in Las Vegas and terrorist attacks <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/us/weapons-in-san-bernardino-shootings-were-legally-obtained.html">like the one in San Bernardino</a>, California, in 2015, gun violence is becoming almost routine in many American neighborhoods. The <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/politics/fbi-crime-report-2016-homicide-rate/index.html">U.S. homicide rate increased</a> more than 20 percent from 2014 to 2016, while last year’s 3.4 percent rise in the violent crime rate was the largest single-year gain in 25 years. </p>
<p>The guns carried and misused by youths, gang members and active criminals are <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00917435/79">more likely than not</a> obtained by transactions that violate federal or state law. And, as I’ve learned from my decades of researching the topic, it is rare for the people who provide these guns to the eventual shooters to <a href="http://www.phlmetropolis.com/2010/03/the-gun-wars-targeting-straw-buyers.php">face any legal consequences</a>. </p>
<p>How can this illicit market be policed more effectively? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188414/original/file-20171002-12122-49b98s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188414/original/file-20171002-12122-49b98s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188414/original/file-20171002-12122-49b98s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188414/original/file-20171002-12122-49b98s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188414/original/file-20171002-12122-49b98s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188414/original/file-20171002-12122-49b98s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188414/original/file-20171002-12122-49b98s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police officers stand at the scene of a shooting near the Mandalay Bay resort and casino on the Las Vegas Strip.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/John Locher</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Undocumented and unregulated transactions</h2>
<p>The vast majority of gun owners say they obtained their weapons in transactions that are documented and for the most part legal.</p>
<p>When asked where and how they acquired their most recent firearm, about 64 percent of a cross-section of American gun owners <a href="http://annals.org/aim/article/2595892/firearm-acquisition-without-background-checks-results-national-survey">reported</a> buying it from a gun store, where the clerk would have conducted a background check and documented the transfer in a permanent record required by federal law. Another 14 percent were transferred in some other way but still involved a background check. The remaining 22 percent said they got their guns without a background check.</p>
<p>The same is not true for criminals, however, most of whom obtain their guns illegally. </p>
<p>A transaction can be illegal for several reasons, but of particular interest are transactions that involve disqualified individuals – those banned from purchase or possession due to criminal record, age, adjudicated mental illness, illegal alien status or some other reason. Convicted felons, teenagers and other people who are legally barred from possession would ordinarily be blocked from purchasing a gun from a gun store because they would fail the background check or lack the permit or license required by some states. </p>
<p>Anyone providing the gun in such transactions would be culpable if he or she had reason to know that the buyer was disqualified, was acting as a straw purchaser or if had violated state regulations pertaining to such private transactions. </p>
<p>The importance of the informal (undocumented) market in supplying criminals is suggested by the results of inmate surveys and data gleaned from guns confiscated by the police. A <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00917435/79">national survey</a> of inmates of state prisons found that just 10 percent of youthful (age 18-40) male respondents who admitted to having a gun at the time of their arrest had obtained it from a gun store. The other 90 percent obtained them through a variety of off-the-book means: for example, as gifts or sharing arrangements with fellow gang members. </p>
<p>Similarly, an ongoing study of how Chicago gang members get their guns has found that only a trivial percentage <a href="http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc/vol104/iss4/">obtained</a> them by direct purchase from a store. To the extent that gun dealers are implicated in supplying dangerous people, it is more so by accommodating straw purchasers and traffickers than in selling directly to customers they know to be disqualified. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188434/original/file-20171002-12122-1n1z7nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188434/original/file-20171002-12122-1n1z7nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188434/original/file-20171002-12122-1n1z7nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188434/original/file-20171002-12122-1n1z7nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188434/original/file-20171002-12122-1n1z7nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188434/original/file-20171002-12122-1n1z7nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188434/original/file-20171002-12122-1n1z7nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A makeshift memorial in Chicago lies at the site where a baby girl, her mother and her father – a known gang member – were shot in 2013. Most Chicago gang members appear to get their guns secondhand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/M. Spencer Green</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The supply chain of guns to crime</h2>
<p>While criminals typically do not buy their guns at a store, all but a tiny fraction of those in circulation in the United States are first sold at retail by a gun dealer – including the guns that <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-gun-debate-9780199338986?cc=us&lang=en&">eventually end up</a> in the hands of criminals. </p>
<p>That first retail sale was most likely legal, in that the clerk followed federal and state requirements for documentation, a background check and record-keeping. While there are scofflaw dealers who sometimes make under-the-counter deals, that is by no means the norm. </p>
<p>If a gun ends up in criminal use, it is usually after several more transactions. The <a href="http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc/vol104/iss4/">average age</a> of guns taken from Chicago gangs is over 11 years. </p>
<p>The gun at that point has been diverted from legal commerce. In this respect, the supply chain for guns is similar to that for other products that have a large legal market but are subject to diversion.</p>
<p>In the case of guns, diversion from licit possession and exchange can occur in a variety of ways: theft, purchase at a gun show by an interstate trafficker, private sales where no questions are asked, straw purchases by girlfriends and so forth. </p>
<p>What appears to be true is that there are few big operators in this domain. The <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02098.x">typical trafficker</a> or underground broker is not making a living that way but rather just making a few dollars on the side. The supply chain for guns used in crime bears little relationship to the supply chain for heroin or cocaine and is much more akin to that for cigarettes and beer that are diverted to underage teenagers. </p>
<p>There have been few attempts to estimate the scope or scale of the underground market, in part because it is not at all clear what types of transactions should be included. But for the sake of having some order-of-magnitude estimate, suppose we just focus on the number of transactions each year that supply the guns actually used in robbery or assault. </p>
<p>There are about 500,000 violent crimes <a href="http://www.nij.gov/topics/crime/gun-violence/pages/welcome.aspx">committed with a gun</a> each year. If the average number of times that an offender commits a robbery or assault with a particular gun is twice, then (assuming patterns of criminal gun use remain constant) the total number of transactions of concern is 250,000 per year. </p>
<p>Actually, no one knows the average number of times a specific gun is used by an offender who uses it at least once. If it is more than twice, then there are even fewer relevant transactions. </p>
<p>That <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view">compares</a> with total sales volume by licensed dealers, which is upwards of 20 million per year. </p>
<h2>All in the family</h2>
<p>So how do gang members, violent criminals, underage youths and other dangerous people get their guns?</p>
<p>A consistent answer emerges from the inmate surveys and from ethnographic studies. Whether guns that end up being used in crime are purchased, swapped, borrowed, shared or stolen, the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00917435/79">most likely source</a> is someone known to the offender, an acquaintance or family member. </p>
<p>For example, Syed Rizwan Farook – one of the shooters in San Bernardino – relied on a friend to get several of the rifles and pistols he used because Farook doubted that he could pass a background check. That a friend and neighbor was the source is quite typical, despite the unique circumstances otherwise. </p>
<p>Also important are “street” sources, such as gang members and drug dealers, which may also entail a prior relationship. Thus, social networks play an important role in facilitating transactions, and an individual (such as a gang member) who tends to hang out with people who have guns will find it relatively easy to obtain one. </p>
<p>Effective policing of the underground gun market could help to separate guns from everyday violent crime. Currently it is rare for those who provide guns to offenders to face any legal consequences, and changing that situation will require additional resources to penetrate the social networks of gun offenders. </p>
<p>Needless to say, that effort is not cheap or easy and requires that both the police and the courts have the necessary authority and give this sort of gun enforcement high priority. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on Jan. 15, 2016.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85056/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip J. Cook receives funding from private and public organizations to conduct research on gun violence. He is a contributor to the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence.
</span></em></p>While mass shooting tragedies in Las Vegas and elsewhere make headlines, the reality is gun violence is becoming almost routine in many American neighborhoods. Where do the guns come from?Philip Cook, Professor of Public Policy Studies, Duke UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/830162017-09-04T21:49:11Z2017-09-04T21:49:11ZCaught between police and gangs, Rio de Janeiro residents are dying in the line of fire<p>In Rio de Janeiro, where murder rates this year have <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-violence-idUSKBN15G5K6">soared to their highest levels in a decade</a>, violence stalks even the youngest residents. </p>
<p>In July an unborn child was struck by a stray bullet, which severely damaged his spine and perforated his lungs. Doctors saved his mother, Claudinia Santos, but little <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/rio/morre-bebe-arthur-baleado-dentro-da-barriga-da-mae-21648573">Arthur did not make it</a>. </p>
<p>His killing sparked outrage, laying bare a terrifying danger facing Rio’s citizens: death by crossfire. That’s what happens when gun battles between heavily armed police, drug trafficking groups and militias rage in a city’s streets.</p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/rj-registra-mais-de-5-mil-homicidios-em-2016-pior-indice-em-6-anos-aponta-isp.ghtml">more than 5,000 people were murdered in Rio</a>, among them scores of people killed by stray bullets.</p>
<h2>War on the poor</h2>
<p>According to <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/rio/saiba-quem-sao-as-vitimas-de-balas-perdidas-no-estado-do-rio-21572183">a snapshot of 2017 civil police data</a>, so-called “stray bullet incidents” are most frequent in Rio’s poor north and west zones, home to many <em>favela</em> neighbourhoods. </p>
<p>At the time of Arthur´s murder, authorities in Rio had already reported at least <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/rio/estado-ja-teve-632-vitimas-de-balas-perdidas-em-2017-21558941">632 unintentional gun-related killings and injuries in 2017</a>. The majority of the victims lived in socially marginalised areas, and consisted chiefly of women, children and older people. </p>
<p>This demographic profile reflects similar trends uncovered in <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22743389">epidemiological studies conducted in both the United States</a> and <a href="http://www.cerac.org.co/es/l%C3%ADneas-de-investigaci%C3%B3n/violencia-armada/balas-perdidas/">Colombia</a>, where data on stray bullet incidents has also shown that most victims tend to be young, old or female.</p>
<p>This profile diverges notably from that of the typical perpetrator, who in both Rio and <a href="https://www.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/publish/news/newsroom/6483">the US</a> are predominantly <a href="http://dapp.fgv.br/en/bullets-lives-lost-paradox-weapons-security-tool/?">men 15 to 29 years old</a>. </p>
<p>In other words, those caught in the crossfire have nothing to do with the events that generated it; they are, in the most literal sense, innocent bystanders. </p>
<h2>A brief history of violence</h2>
<p>Stray bullets are not a new problem in Rio. When crime rates peaked here some two decades ago, hundreds more people were unintentionally shot each year. </p>
<p>In the mid-1990s, one former mayor memorably <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/cotidiano/ultimas-noticias/2015/01/28/bala-perdida-ressurge-com-forca-e-faz-rio-reviver-temor-da-decada-de-90.htm">described the bullet-riddled city as a “tropical Bosnia”</a> and hinted that an <a href="http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/rio-de-janeiro-a-war-by-any-other-name">undeclared war</a> was underway. Back then, fearful residents commonly <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/cotidiano/ultimas-noticias/2015/01/28/bala-perdida-ressurge-com-forca-e-faz-rio-reviver-temor-da-decada-de-90.htm">reinforced their windows and walls with steel plates and concrete</a>.</p>
<p>Starting about five years ago, violence in Rio began to ease somewhat. As the city’s controversial Police Pacification Units, or UPPs, reclaimed some of city’s <em>favelas</em> from gangs, they helped <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/16/opinion/fear-and-backsliding-in-rio.html?mcubz=3&mtrref=www.google.com.br&gwh=6713my676B01E01C2C0746854A543294FF&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion">murder rates decrease by 65% between 2009 and 2012</a>. </p>
<p>But the reforms at the heart of the UPPs – neighbourhood occupations, proximity policing and <a href="https://theconversation.com/death-toll-mounts-in-rio-de-janeiro-as-police-lose-control-of-the-city-and-of-themselves-80862">use of non-lethal force</a> – began to deteriorate after the 2016 Rio Olympics, and crime is once again spiking in Rio’s <em>favelas</em>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"864456825529393152"}"></div></p>
<p>Crossfire deaths are just one consequence. These communities suffer acutely from all forms of violence, including <a href="http://noticias.r7.com/jornal-da-record/videos/-baixada-fluminense-e-a-regiao-mais-violenta-do-rio-de-janeiro-19062017">police brutality</a>, which has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-tanks-grenades-and-guns-police-wage-war-on-rio-de-janeiros-poorest-73182">growing in frequency and severity</a> since the UPP’s collapse.</p>
<p>I believe that’s because organised crime, stray bullets and aggressive policing are mutually reinforcing. Pitting <a href="https://extra.globo.com/casos-de-policia/guerra-do-rio/">police against gangs</a> in an overt turf war has spawned a mini arms race, with all sides – from drug dealers to beat officers – resorting to ever-higher calibre weaponry. </p>
<p>With the recent arrival of 8,500 soldiers to go after gangs and illegal weapons in Rio de Janeiro, the <a href="https://forcamilitar.com.br/2017/08/01/operacoes-das-forcas-armadas-no-rio-nos-ultimos-25-anos-nao-reduziram-criminalidade/">twelfth military deployment there since the early 1990s</a>, the violence could escalate further still. Brazil’s minister of defence has described the armed forces as an “anaesthetic” for the city.</p>
<p>On July 2 2017, the Rio de Janeiro state civil police announced that <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/rio/estado-ja-teve-632-vitimas-de-balas-perdidas-em-2017-21558941">632 people had died in crossfire this year</a>. On average, then, the official statistic is that a Rio resident is hit by a stray bullet every seven hours. </p>
<h2>Caught in the <em>fogo cruzado</em></h2>
<p>The actual number is likely considerably higher. </p>
<p>Most law enforcement and public health specialists limit the application of the term to instances when a bullet escapes the immediate scene of a shooting and results in a fatal or non-fatal injury. This narrow definition leaves out the many instances where shots are fired but no casualties are reported. </p>
<p>In 2015, the local newspaper Extra challenged the way the city’s Institute for Public Safety (ISP) counted stray bullets, <a href="https://extra.globo.com/casos-de-policia/problemas-na-metodologia-falhas-nos-registros-reduzem-numeros-de-balas-perdidas-no-rio-16737784.html">accusing officials of dramatically under-reporting</a>. Applying the government’s categorisation scheme, reporters found just 160 stray bullet incidents between January and June 2014, leaving another reported 39 crossfire deaths and 194 stray bullet injuries uncounted. </p>
<p>The ISP has now partnered with local academics and the Rio de Janeiro state civil police to <a href="https://extra.globo.com/casos-de-policia/isp-decide-analisar-registros-das-vitimas-de-balas-perdidas-para-elaborar-estatistica-17049413.html">refine how it registers these incidents</a>, but commentators disagree on whether the new definition is any <a href="http://www.adepolrj.com.br/adepol/noticia_dinamica.asp?id=17654">better</a>. </p>
<p>The media, too, under-reports on stray bullet incidents. According to a 2016 <a href="http://www.unlirec.org/Documents/BalasPerdidas_Sum_ENG.pdf">United Nations-sponsored study</a> that tracked the “stray bullet incidents” documented in news outlets across Latin America, Brazil ranked first for crossfire-related injuries and deaths in 2014 and 2015, with 197 incidents (98 deaths and 115 injuries).</p>
<p>It was followed by Mexico (116 cases) and Colombia (101 cases). In all three <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-fix-latin-americas-homicide-problem-79731">homicide-beset nations</a>, this is surely a low estimate. </p>
<p>To fill these information gaps, activists in Rio de Janeiro have developed apps. Amnesty Brazil’s <a href="fogocruzado.org.br/">Fogo Cruzado (Crossfire)</a> has reported more than 2,000 shooting in the last 120 days, an average of 16 a day. </p>
<p>Press play below to see all reported shots fired in Rio from January through June 2017:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"884440277146120197"}"></div></p>
<p>But crowd-sourcing platforms have their weaknesses, too. They rely on citizens to file reports online, meaning better coverage in more tech-savvy neighbourhoods. They also capture all incidents, both verified and unverified. </p>
<h2>Don’t shoot</h2>
<p>Ambiguous defitions and under-counting mean that violence analysts like me don’t actually know whether crossfire killings are on the rise. </p>
<p>But we do know this: Rio’s <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-muggah/stray-bullets-are-no-acci_b_6593798.html">stray bullets are no accident</a> – they’re the predictable outcome of a public security policy that privileges aggressive policing over prevention. Too often police in Rio are trained to shoot first and (maybe) ask questions later. When threatened, officers routinely <a href="http://acervo.oglobo.globo.com/em-destaque/mortos-feridos-por-balas-perdidas-no-estado-do-rio-desde-decada-de-90-19559369">fire off a disproportionate number of rounds</a> – <a href="http://www.conectas.org/arquivos/editor/files/INDICE%20APTIDAO%20USO%20FORCA%20POLICIAL-%205.pdf">often at close range</a>.</p>
<p>And when <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/aug/03/rio-police-violent-killing-olympics-torture">trigger-happy cops</a> wield powerful assault rifles, as Rio’s do, they can kill or injure people up to three kilometres away. </p>
<p>Drug trafficking factions do precisely the same thing, with predictably deadly outcomes for bystanders.</p>
<p>Limiting confrontations in dense urban areas, <a href="http://americasquarterly.org/content/targeting-hot-spots-could-drastically-reduce-latin-americas-murder-rate">including through super-targeted “hot spot” policing</a>, could dramatically reduce the gun battles that end up claiming innocent lives. </p>
<p>Such reforms would require better police training and more oversight of errant officers, though, something that Rio’s underfunded and overstressed police force cannot do without able leadership and additional resources. </p>
<p>There are several other ways to limit stray bullet incidents: passing and enforcing stricter <a href="https://presrepublica.jusbrasil.com.br/legislacao/98027/estatuto-do-desarmamento-lei-10826-03">gun regulations</a>, stemming the leakage of illegal weapons onto the street <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/democraciaabierta/robert-muggah/where-do-rio-de-janeiros-crime-guns-come-from">from public and private security forces</a>, <a href="http://noticias.r7.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticias/comissao-do-senado-aprova-projeto-que-permite-identificar-balas-perdidas-por-meio-de-substancias-quimicas-20111129.html">marking and tracking police bullets</a> – even just advising people against firing celebratory shots in the air. </p>
<p>In the absence of such emergency measures, <em>favela</em> residents will have to keep dodging bullets while the rest of us look on in horror.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83016/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Muggah is associated with the Igarapé Institute, a Brazilian think and do tank that receives financial support from the Canadian, Norwegian and the UK governments, as well as the Open Society Foundations, Folke Bernadotte Academy, Jigsaw, and several local donors in Brazil. Robert Muggah co-founded the Igarapé Institute and the SecDev Foundation. More information on his affiliations is available on both websites.</span></em></p>In Rio de Janeiro, a stray bullet kills or injures one person every seven hours.Robert Muggah, Associate lecturer, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/797312017-06-28T05:18:13Z2017-06-28T05:18:13ZHow to fix Latin America’s homicide problem<p>In the 1990s, the capital of Colombia’s mountainous Antioquia province Medellin had one of the world’s highest-ever recorded murder rates: 380 homicides per 100,000 people. After national authorities wrested control of the city’s poorest communities from paramilitaries, mayor Sergio Fajardo rolled out an entirely new approach to quelling violence. It was known as “<a href="https://onresilientsettlement.wordpress.com/2012/10/21/urban-acupuncture-in-medellin-colombia/">urban acupuncture</a>”. </p>
<p>A core tenet of this approach to social urbanism involved pinprick interventions in neighbourhoods experiencing extreme poverty and chronic violence. Government and business invested in first-class community centres, schools and public transit, using parks, gondolas and escalators to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/09/medellin-colombia-worlds-most-dangerous-city">bring different parts of the city together</a>. </p>
<p>The results were stunning. Today, homicides in Medellin are <a href="http://www.homicide.igarape.org">around 20 per 100,000 and falling</a>. </p>
<p>Around the same time, some 250 kilometres to the south, mayor Antanas Mockus was governing Colombia’s <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1994/10/31/world/vigilantes-in-colombia-kill-hundreds-in-a-social-cleansing.html">war-torn capital</a> Bogotá. Starting in 1995, he increased the city’s police budget tenfold, introduced alternative sentencing for non-violent offenders, created a new violence prevention department, refurbished rundown public spaces and vastly expanded health and education services for vulnerable citizens. </p>
<p>By 2003, Bogota’s homicides had <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/big-data-are-reducing-homicides-in-cities-across-the-americas/">dropped from 59 per 100,000 to 25 per 100,000</a>.</p>
<h2>Homicide epidemic</h2>
<p>For over a decade, the Latin America’s homicide rate has been <a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/gsh/pdfs/2014_GLOBAL_HOMICIDE_BOOK_web.pdf">at least three times</a> the global average. Why has the rest of the region failed to grasp these lessons? </p>
<p><strong>Figure 1: Murder in comparison</strong> </p>
<p>Latin America is where the most murders in the world happen. In 2016, at least <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/03/daily-chart-23">43 of the 50 most homicidal cities</a> in the world – led by San Salvador (El Salvador), Acapulco (Mexico) and San Pedro Sula (Honduras) – were located in the region. Roughly four Latin Americans are killed every 15 minutes. </p>
<p>Things aren’t bad everywhere. Argentina, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay and, in particular, Chile (with its homicide rate of 2.7 per 100,000) are relatively safe. Even so, their combined average homicide rate of 6.5 per 100,000 is twice that of North America. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-biggest-problem-isnt-corruption-its-murder-78014?sr=1">Brazil</a> (28.3 per 100,000), Colombia (21.9), El Salvador (91.2), Guatemala (27.3), Honduras (59.1), Mexico (17) and Venezuela (58) together account for <a href="homicide.igarape.org.br">one in every four homicides on earth</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Figure 2: Homicides by country</strong> </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175745/original/file-20170626-29728-1e1auwc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175745/original/file-20170626-29728-1e1auwc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175745/original/file-20170626-29728-1e1auwc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175745/original/file-20170626-29728-1e1auwc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175745/original/file-20170626-29728-1e1auwc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175745/original/file-20170626-29728-1e1auwc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175745/original/file-20170626-29728-1e1auwc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175745/original/file-20170626-29728-1e1auwc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Latin America experiences 144,000 homicides annually.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://s3-sa-east-1.amazonaws.com/instintodevida/assets/folder+Instinto+19-04+WEB.pdf">Igarape Institute</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There’s no single solution for preventing lethal violence. But data-driven interventions, like those pioneered by Colombian mayors two decades ago, are more likely to help Latin Americans than many current approaches, which range from <a href="http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-garzon-muggah-venezuela-violent-crime-statistics-20170331-story.html">near apathy in Venezuela</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-all-brazilians-believe-that-criminals-have-no-rights-but-a-startling-number-do-75987">repressive policing in Brazil</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/06/el-salvador-gangs-police-violence-distrito-italia">El Salvador</a> and <a href="http://www.insightcrime.org/news-analysis/mexico-drug-war-decade-failure">Mexico</a>. </p>
<p>Though different, Medellin and Bogota’s homicide reduction strategies shared key features. Both set hard targets, generated high-quality data for analysis, reformed police and the justice sector, mended social ties in fragmented communities and confiscated illegal weapons. </p>
<p>They also benefited from informal pacts with heavily armed factions, not unlike the controversial 2012 gang truce that <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/28/world/americas/in-el-salvador-gang-truce-brings-tenuous-peace.html">led to a temporary peace in El Salvador</a>. </p>
<h2>Crime doesn’t pay</h2>
<p>Rather than replicate these experiences, Latin American governments have responded to rising violence by sinking more money into police forces, prosecutors and prisons. </p>
<p>Today, the region annually invests between US$55 and US$70 billion in public security, says <a href="https://publications.iadb.org/bitstream/handle/11319/8133/The-Costs-of-Crime-and-Violence-New-Evidence-and-Insights-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.pdf?sequence=7&isAllowed=y">the Inter-American Development Bank</a>, and criminal violence costs the equivalent of 3.5% of total regional GDP in lost productivity, insurance premiums and security provision (both public and private). That adds up to <a href="https://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/7246">US$261 billion a year</a> or US$300 per person.</p>
<p>Even so, only 20 of every 100 murders in Latin America results in conviction (<a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/gsh/pdfs/2014_GLOBAL_HOMICIDE_BOOK_web.pdf">the global rate is 43 in 100</a>). In Caracas or San Salvador, 10% of cases are cleared, versus New York’s <a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/gsh/pdfs/2014_GLOBAL_HOMICIDE_BOOK_web.pdf">68% and Tokyo’s 98%</a>. Meanwhile, prisons are <a href="http://www.insightcrime.org/news-analysis/weekly-insight-latin-america-prison-dilemma">bursting at the seams</a>.</p>
<p>Many factors contribute to Latin America’s homicide problem, among them the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-us-really-ready-to-end-its-drug-war-70363?sr=1">war on drugs</a>, abundant <a href="https://igarape.org.br/en/brazils-gun-violence-problem-is-made-in-brazil-2/">unlicensed firearms</a>, persistently <a href="http://oig.cepal.org/en">unequal gender relations</a> and, in Mexico and Central America, thousands of marginalised, uprooted, and sometimes convicted <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/02/23/deporting_criminals_to_central_america_helped_cause_the_same_violence_that.html">US deportees</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.lav.uerj.br/relat2016.html">growing body of scholarship on homicide</a> in the region should help policymakers identify the most important drivers to craft better anti-violence programs. </p>
<p>Inequality is high on that list. Latin America is home to <a href="http://www.latinamerica.undp.org/content/rblac/en/home/regioninfo.html">ten of the world’s 15 most unequal countries</a>, and while the relationship between inequality and violent crime is not causal, there is evidence of a strong correlation.</p>
<p>Concentrated poverty plays a role. For example, World Bank scholars recently found that an increase teen pregnancies in Latin America is associated with <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25920/210664ov.pdf?sequence=3">0.5 to 0.6 additional murders per 100,000 people</a>. Meanwhile, in Medellín, a 1% rise in permanent income generated <a href="https://repository.eafit.edu.co/handle/10784/8562#.V7x1N5MrKhR">a 0.4% reduction in homicides</a>.</p>
<p>The region is highly urbanised, with <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/latin-america-s-cities-unequal-dangerous-and-fragile-but-that-can-change/">roughly 85% of people living in cities</a> and this has an important role in Latin America’s levels of violence. Across the globe, homicidal violence tends to be hyper-concentrated in peripheral urban areas experiencing chronic disadvantage.</p>
<p>Cities, <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_muggah_how_to_protect_fast_growing_cities_from_failing">especially fast-growing ones</a>, offer certain intrinsic opportunities for criminal activity (anonymity, for instance, prospective victims and dilapidated infrastructure), compounded by economic neglect and scarce basic services. </p>
<p>Cities also have a higher density of actual and would-be offenders – unemployed young men. About 13% of Latin America’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/jan/06/unemployment-problem-latin-america-education-answer-rebeca-grynspan">108 million 15-to-24-year-olds are unemployed</a>, which has encouraged a small number of them to commit “aspirational crime”. </p>
<p><a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25920/210664ov.pdf?sequence=3">Data suggests</a> that Latin America’s murderers are, by and large, young, out of work, out of school and out of options. In Brazil, studies show that a 1% rise in unemployment rates for men results in a <a href="https://www.anpec.org.br/encontro/2015/submissao/files_I/i12-0ce869e09e6385120c0146e239bb5bf8.pdf">2.1% spike in homicides</a>.</p>
<p>The region’s weak security and justice institutions only worsen this violence epidemic. Some Venezuelan prisons are literally <a href="http://radioambulante.org/en/audio-en/translation/translation-the-final-days-of-franklin-masacre">under the control of gangs</a>, while in Brazil, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/04/opinion/brazils-deadly-prison-system.html">jails have become death traps</a>, and police <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-tanks-grenades-and-guns-police-wage-war-on-rio-de-janeiros-poorest-73182">kill with impunity</a>. Meanwhile, Mexican citizens profoundly <a href="http://www.consulta.mx/index.php/estudios-e-investigaciones/mexico-opina/item/884-mexico-confianza-en-instituciones-2016">distrust their government</a>. </p>
<p>Such frailties plague nations across the region, and are exploited by gang bosses and political elites alike. This allows violence, impunity, patronage and corruption to flourish. </p>
<h2>What works, what doesn’t</h2>
<p>Many Latin American politicians continue deftly side-stepping the issue, blaming all violence on cartels and gangs alone. </p>
<p>While organised crime is <a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/TOC_Central_America_and_the_Caribbean_english.pdf">heavily implicated in homicides</a>, it is only one manifestation of a sprawling cluster of social and economic problems. </p>
<p>To address these underlying risks, public officials will need to replace ineffective “iron fist” strategies, which have only fuelled violence and mass incarceration, with concrete homicide-reduction plans inspired by what’s worked elsewhere.</p>
<p>Take Colombia’s experimentation with <a href="http://www.ideaspaz.org/publications/posts/73">Plan Cuadrantes, a block-by-block crime prevention initiative</a>, as an example. Such hot-spot policing, as it’s known, works because lethal violence tends to concentrate reliably in physical space. </p>
<p>Overall, more than 90% of all homicides <a href="http://americasquarterly.org/content/targeting-hot-spots-could-drastically-reduce-latin-americas-murder-rate">occur in less than 2% of street addresses</a>. In Bogotá, <a href="https://igarape.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Criminalidad-urbana-en-Colombia-diciembre-2014.pdf">virtually all murders</a> are committed in just 1% of the city’s street corners. </p>
<p>The majority of murders also occur during just a few hours out of a typical week: Friday and Saturday nights, and on payday. Using new digital platforms, <a href="http://www.stabilityjournal.org/articles/10.5334/sta.cq/">law enforcement officials can now monitor criminal violence in real time</a> and prevent lethal violence before it occurs. </p>
<p>Brazil has registered positive outcomes with similar tactics in <a href="http://www.iadb.org/en/projects/project-description-title,1303.html?id=BR-L1387">Espírito Santo</a>, <a href="https://igarape.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/artigo-8-p2.pdf">Recife</a>, <a href="http://www.forumseguranca.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Relatorio-final_CAF.pdf">Rio de Janeiro</a> and <a href="http://www.stabilityjournal.org/articles/10.5334/sta.do/">São Paulo</a>. Although not all of these efforts were sustained over time.</p>
<p>Very specific types of behaviours, including <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13548506.2016.1257815?needAccess=true&">prior violence, contact with the law, alcohol abuse and gun ownership</a>, are also associated with homicide perpetration and victimisation. Deterrence-based strategies that prioritise the most violent types of crime could show immediate results, as the <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/programs/criminaljustice/research-publications/gangs-guns-urban-violence/operation-ceasefire-boston-gun-project">Ceasefire project</a> did in Boston (US) and <a href="https://www.ijuci.org.br/acoes/fica-vivo/">Stay Alive</a> did in Belo Horizonte (Brazil). </p>
<p>And measures that improve school retention rates, offer vocational training, create quality jobs and provide life skills for at-risk youth in the hardest hit neighbourhoods would reap benefits in the longer term. </p>
<p><a href="instintodevida.org">Instinct for Life</a>, a regional initiative launched by over 30 NGOs and international agencies, recommends <a href="https://igarape.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Campanha-Instinto-ES-13-06-web.pdf">evidence-based policy-making</a> to help cut Latin America’s murder rate in half over the next decade. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"877522129192878080"}"></div></p>
<p>The campaign is advocating for reductions of on average 7.5% a year in homicide-beset Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico and Venezuela. If successful, more than 365,000 lives could be spared.</p>
<p>The goal is bold, but also necessary and feasible. Medellin and Bogotá proved years ago that violence is not chronic. Latin Americans, numb after decades of bloodshed, don’t have to simply endure it. </p>
<p>With enlightened and courageous leadership, data-informed policies and a genuine commitment from politicians and citizens alike, the region can be safer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79731/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Muggah´s think and do tank, the Igarapé Institute, receives financial support from the Canadian, Norwegian and the UK governments, as well as the Open Society Foundation, Folke Bernadotte Academy, Jigsaw, and several local donors in Brazil. Robert Muggah co-founded the Igarapé Institute and the SecDev Foundation. More information on his affiliations is available on both websites. </span></em></p>Latin America’s murder rate is the highest in the world, accounting for one in every four homicides on the planet.Robert Muggah, Associate lecturer, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/778972017-06-06T05:24:42Z2017-06-06T05:24:42ZIs Mexico actually the world’s second most murderous nation?<p>This year Mexico celebrates the centennial of Juan Rulfo, one of the 20th century’s <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39921471">greatest Mexican writers</a>. </p>
<p>His first novel, <a href="http://www.armandfbaker.com/translations/novels/pedro_paramo.pdf">Pedro Páramo</a> (1955), tells of a man travelling through Comala, a ghost village that “sits on the coals of the earth at the very mouth of hell.” Comala is haunted by Páramo, a brutal local potentate who, offended by the villagers’ indifference to the demise of his loved one, has starved them into half-alive shades.</p>
<p>Rulfo’s work embodies the mad violence that the country endured in the aftermath of the <a href="https://books.google.com.ar/books?id=JX5dXGBlu24C&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false">Mexican Revolution</a> (1910-1921). </p>
<p>And today, a hundred years after Rulfo’s birth, Mexicans are once again facing a rancorous power struggle and unforgiving bloodshed. </p>
<p>According to an <a href="https://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices/blogsections/iiss-voices-2017-adeb/may-8636/mexico-murder-rate-9f41">International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) survey on armed conflicts</a> released in May 2017, Mexico is now the second-deadliest country in the world, with <a href="http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/victimas/Victimas2016_032017.pdf">22,967 homicide victims</a> in 2016. </p>
<p>That makes Mexico, now in the eleventh year of its <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-decade-of-murder-and-grief-mexicos-drug-war-turns-ten-70036">war on drugs</a>, more violent than war zones such as Afghanistan or Yemen, the study claims. Its death toll is surpassed only by <a href="http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=58114">Syria’s 50,000</a> conflict deaths in 2016.</p>
<h2>The country where life is worth nothing</h2>
<p>The IISS report found an eager reader in US President Donald Trump, who <a href="https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/862028109394006016%22%22">retweeted</a> a Drudge Report link to an article on Mexico’s violence. </p>
<p>But in a <a href="https://www.gob.mx/sre/prensa/comunicado-conjunto-106478">joint statement</a> by the foreign and interior ministries, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto called IISS’s assertions “unsubstantiated” and said the report was based on “dubious methodologies”.</p>
<p>He also argued that the report incorrectly used legal terms related to armed conflicts, asserting that not all homicides in Mexico are related to the war on drugs and that neither <a href="http://www.insightcrime.org/mexico-organized-crime-news/mexico">organised crime groups</a> nor the <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-military-is-a-lethal-killing-force-should-it-really-be-deployed-as-police-75521">involvement of the army in law enforcement</a> can be legally considered evidence of an armed conflict.</p>
<p>Trump officials recanted his citation of the IISS report after conferring with Mexican officials.</p>
<p>Technically, the Mexican government’s critiques are correct. Criminologists usually calculate <a href="https://oag.ca.gov/sites/all/files/agweb/pdfs/cjsc/stats/computational_formulas.pdf">crime rates</a> as the number of crimes reported to law enforcement agencies for every 100,000 persons – not as a gross figure, as IISS has done. </p>
<p>Using that methodology, <a href="https://www.unodc.org/gsh/">UN figures</a> places Mexico’s homicide rate at 16.4 murders per 100,000 residents, which is significantly lower than Brazil (25.2), Venezuela (53.7) and Honduras (90.4). </p>
<p>But the numbers are still bleak: according to the Peña Nieto administration, Mexico had <a href="http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/cifras%20de%20homicidio%20doloso%20secuestro%20etc/HDSECEXTRV_042017.pdf">7,727</a> homicides from January to April 2017. If this trend continues, <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/entrada-de-opinion/columna/alejandro-hope/nacion/seguridad/2017/04/24/los-30-mil-muertos-de-2017">warns</a> Alejandro Hope, a public security expert in Mexico, some 30,000 people will have been killed by the end of this year. This would be Mexico’s highest murder rate since the 1960s. </p>
<p>This nightmare of unremitting violence is inflicted by both criminal organisations and agents of the Mexican state: national death by <a href="http://lecerveau.mcgill.ca/flash/capsules/articles_pdf/suicide.pdf">anomie</a>, or lawlessness.</p>
<h2>A bloody May</h2>
<p>The same day that the government denounced IISS’s report, the Mexican news agency <a href="http://www.diariocambio.com.mx/2017/secciones/codigo-rojo/item/9928-video-militares-ejecutan-con-tiro-de-gracia-en-palmarito">Diario Cambio</a> published a video of the Mexican army carrying out what appeared to be an extrajudicial execution. After a skirmish with <a href="http://www.milenio.com/firmas/hector_aguilar_camin_dia-con-dia/huachicol-origen-huachicoleros-cachimbas-pipas-sobrante-gasolina-milenio_18_954684543.html">suspected fuel smugglers</a> in the town of Palmarito, Puebla, a soldier fired directly into the back of an injured man’s head.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8P42Pspqluc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Mexico’s army has been accused of extrajudicial killings for a decade. (Warning: graphic content)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The video reveals, in cold blood, the worst of the <a href="http://www.acnur.org/fileadmin/scripts/doc.php?file=fileadmin/news_imported_files/10274">human rights violations</a> perpetrated by the army during the decade-long war on drugs.</p>
<p>Just hours later, in the northern state of Tamaulipas, a group of gunmen killed a human rights activist, <a href="http://www.animalpolitico.com/2017/05/integrante-grupo-desaparecidos-asesinada-san-fernando/">Miriam Elizabeth Rodríguez Martínez</a>. Rodríguez had become a leader in the movement of families searching for missing loved ones after she found the remains of her 14-year-old daughter Karen, who disappeared in 2012, in a hidden grave in the town of San Fernando in 2014.</p>
<p>In Mexico, 13 persons “disappear” each day, according to a <a href="http://desaparecidos.proceso.com.mx/2/">research</a> developed by the weekly magazine Proceso and the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económica (CIDE).</p>
<p>Five days after Rodríguez was murdered, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/20/javier-valdez-murdered-journalist-mexico-dirty-war">Javier Valdéz</a>, an award-winning Mexican journalist known for <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-mexico-journalist-dead-20170515-story.html">covering the drug cartels</a>, was <a href="http://riodoce.mx/mexico-nacional/hoy-nos-pegaron-en-el-corazon-riodoce">killed</a> in Culiacán, the capital of the western state of Sinaloa and <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-chapo-story-of-a-kingpin-or-why-trumps-plan-to-defeat-mexican-cartels-is-doomed-to-fail-71781">former home</a> of the infamous drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. </p>
<p>Valdéz was pulled from his car by several gunmen and shot dead in the street around noon. He was the <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-mexico-journalist-murders-20170516-story.html">sixth journalist</a> murdered in Mexico in 2017, making the country the world’s <a href="https://rsf.org/sites/default/files/rsf_2016-part_2-en.pdf">third-deadliest</a> place for reporters, after Syria and Afghanistan.</p>
<h2>The guilty silence</h2>
<p>Mexico’s president responded to the violent events of May by <a href="https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/articulos/acciones-para-la-libertad-de-expresion-y-para-la-proteccion-de-periodistas-y-defensores">gathering</a> his cabinet and the country’s governors and promising more resources to help journalists and human rights advocates under threat. He also increased funding for the special prosecutor’s office tasked with investigating crimes against these groups and called for better coordination between federal and state authorities.</p>
<p>After announcing these measures, Peña Nieto held a <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/mexican-president-pena-nieto-calls-for-more-protection-of-journalists/article35021784/">moment of silence</a> for the murdered journalists. In a symbolic and emotional scene, shouts of “justice!” were heard from reporters covering the event – an indictment of the Mexican state’s guilty silence in the face of so many murders. </p>
<p>The state, simultaneously bloated and impotent, has few answers to offer the Mexican people, in part because it is simply waging a war owned by someone else, namely, the United States.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"864911850336641025"}"></div></p>
<p>On May 18, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson <a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2017/05/270969.htm">acknowledged</a> the role American drug consumers play in driving Mexico’s lawlessness crisis, telling reporters that Americans “need to confront” that the US has caused the ongoing drug-related violence in Mexico. </p>
<p>“But for us,” Tillerson said, “Mexico wouldn’t have a trans-criminal organised crime problem and the violence that they’re suffering. We really have to own up to that.”</p>
<p>Yet days later, the Trump administration, full of contradictions, released <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/budget.pdf">a budget proposal</a> foreseeing US$87.66 million in counter-narcotics aid to Mexico in 2018 – a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-budget-foreign-aid-mexico-idUSKBN18J2XJ?il=0">45%</a> reduction from the 2016 outlay. </p>
<p>And so Mexico has become <a href="http://www.reforma.com/aplicacioneslibre/editoriales/editorial.aspx?id=112854&md5=0c292add84cac8238cb22faf7ae43ed2&ta=0dfdbac11765226904c16cb9ad1b2efe&lcmd5=21a19c28e0eb0a8a3850b1611d13e405">Rulfo’s Comala</a>, the phantom realm of <a href="http://www.armandfbaker.com/translations/novels/pedro_paramo.pdf">damnation</a> in which “those who die come back to get a blanket after going to hell.”</p>
<h2>Voices of hope</h2>
<p>Amid the bloodshed, though, there is hope. </p>
<p>On May 28, hundreds of indigenous representatives came together at the National Indigenous Congress to nominate María de Jesus Patricio Martínez as their <a href="http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimas/2017/05/28/maria-de-jesus-patricio-electa-candidata-indigena-presidencial">independent candidate</a> for Mexico’s upcoming 2018 presidential election. </p>
<p>Patricio Martínez is a Nahua woman and a <a href="https://callitecolhuacateca.wordpress.com/">traditional healer</a>. “Our participation in politics,” she <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i092Zsnvs5w">said</a>, “does not seek votes [but rather] pursues life.”</p>
<p>Before <a href="http://www.animalpolitico.com/2017/05/mujer-indigenas-vocera-presidencia/">representatives</a> of the Mayas, Yaquis, Zoques and other indigenous peoples, Patricio Martínez called for healing, resistance and renewal. The time has come to work for “reconstituting our peoples, who have been beaten for many years,” she said. </p>
<p>In Mexico, as in Comala, survival is the ultimate political challenge. But, alas, the Peña Nieto government does not dare to embrace it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis Gómez Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A controversial report claims that Mexico is more violent than Afghanistan and Yemen. It’s wrong on the details but right that Mexico is, in effect, a war zone.Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.