tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/kenyan-politics-33565/articlesKenyan politics – The Conversation2017-06-08T16:32:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/791212017-06-08T16:32:55Z2017-06-08T16:32:55ZFour ways the Kenyan elections could be rigged – and how to stop it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172886/original/file-20170608-26932-fwe1v7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kenya experienced
technological failures
during the 2013 election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Thomas Mukoya </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The race for State House in Kenya is heating up. After a long period during which President Uhuru Kenyatta looked a shoo-in for re-election, the presidential race is looking <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/02/18/raila-starts-to-close-gap-with-uhuru-poll-shows_c1508424">increasingly competitive</a>. </p>
<p>Although the most reliable polls still give the incumbent a strong lead of around 6% the main opposition candidate, Raila Odinga, has the greater momentum. Following a year in which his poll ratings hovered between <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001229306/uhuru-maintains-15-point-lead-over-raila-new-ipsos-survey-reveals">20% and 30%</a>, Odinga has been buoyed by the confirmation that he will be the flag bearer of the main opposition coalition, the National Super Alliance (NASA). Other prominent alliance leaders have also said they will back his candidacy.</p>
<p>The closer the race becomes, the more Kenyans and those who care about the country will start to worry about election rigging. Both candidates have <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/05/11/uhuru-assures-uk-investors-of-free-peaceful-august-polls_c1559738">committed themselves to free and fair polls</a>, but many Kenyans <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/may/11/kenya-elections-renew-violence-fears/">still fear</a> that the process may not be credible. </p>
<p>In large part, this scepticism is a legacy of the events of 2007/8, when flawed polls led to post-election violence that took the lives of over<a href="https://theconversation.com/kenyas-history-of-election-violence-is-threatening-to-repeat-itself-76220"> 1,000 people</a> and displaced hundreds of thousands more. Although the 2013 polls were much more peaceful, the process also suffered from a number of shortcomings which led the opposition to reject the official results.</p>
<p>Without prejudging whether the 2017 contest will be clean or not, it’s therefore important to ask how the election might be rigged, and how this could be stopped.</p>
<h2>Technology, inflating turnout and fiddling figures</h2>
<p>Here are four ways that elections could be rigged.</p>
<p><strong>1. Bring down the technology</strong></p>
<p>In the 2013 elections, the technology used to safeguard the process <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17531050802058286">failed systematically</a>. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission fell back on manual processes. This meant there was no fingerprint verification to ascertain that the right people were voting, and were only voting once. The breakdown of the technology, and the potential for the manual process to be abused, was a central part of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Kenyan_presidential_election_petition">opposition’s election petition</a>.</p>
<p>Odinga and his colleagues campaigned to make the use of biometric technology compulsory in the run-up to this election. But resistance from the government means that the commission retains the right to fall back on a manual system if the technology breaks down. </p>
<p>This is worrying for two reasons. First, candidates who fear they are losing and know that manual processes are less well insulated from manipulation have an incentive to make the technology fail. Second, technological problems will be interpreted as a sign of rigging whether or not they are, undermining confidence in the process.</p>
<p><strong>2. Inflate turnout in North-Eastern</strong></p>
<p>Electoral turnout in the north-eastern region of Kenya has traditionally <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiXwKPhtazUAhVHDMAKHWSmDxkQFggoMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Frepository.mua.ac.ke%2F447%2F1%2FPolitical%20Leadership%20and%20Voting%20Behavior%20with%20registered%20voters.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHAu2ar4ndpnT0j4EsAzy-9CaY7nw&sig2=piOKSe_rZrBXhAD7V2pVYA">been poor</a>. This is because of low population density and the fact that the region has historically been politically and economically marginalised. Given this, the high official turnout of over 80% in 2013 surprised many. There were <a href="http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?t=25490">suspicions</a> that the turnout may have been artificially inflated by adding ballot papers in the name of voters who did not actually go to the polls.</p>
<p>Ballot box stuffing in the north-eastern part is particularly viable, because it’s the most remote part of the country. It is also an area <a href="https://www.riskadvisory.net/news/kenya-terrorist-attacks-in-northeast-likely-to-remain-frequent-until-poll.php">prone to terrorist attacks</a>. As a result, it is a place that international election monitors tend not to visit, which opens to the door to electoral abuse.</p>
<p><strong>3. Set up fake polling streams</strong></p>
<p>Many Kenyan polling stations are split up into a number of “streams” to allow people to be processed more quickly. Another allegation about the 2013 election is that in some cases <a href="http://kenyalaw.org/caselaw/cases/view/90738/">fake polling streams</a> were set up so fraudulent votes could be added. In other words, the suggestion is that while real voters cast their ballots in one or two real polling streams, the ballots of people who had not turned out were artificially added to a made-up stream and then submitted.</p>
<p>This would be a smart way to rig an election. While the figures for polling stations are often recorded, the exact figures for polling streams are quickly lost. Indeed, because the results from polling streams are merged to generate polling station totals, which are then merged to generate constituency totals, it is possible to hide suspicious results from a stream – <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjcutHVvKzUAhUKI8AKHUZqASsQFggkMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tandfonline.com%2Fdoi%2Ffull%2F10.1080%2F17531055.2013.874105%3Fsrc%3Drecsys&usg=AFQjCNG3_dkuwzzi0pbtiXIF3BuIK_NGeQ&sig2=Oi-UWLx1Aq_YAaA-LUvDJw">such as turnout in excess of 100%</a> – because once everything is collated the final result may not look that exceptional.</p>
<p><strong>4. Fiddle the figures</strong></p>
<p>One of the classic forms of election rigging is to change the results as they are being transferred from the polling station or constituency level to the national tallying centre. In 2013, the <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/lifestyle/weekend/IEBC-2013-elections-study/1220-2816900-nb6btx/index.html">failure of a new results transmission system</a> run through a mobile phone app generated concerns about electoral manipulation during the vote tallying process. This was especially when it became clear that in some cases the <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/12/24/2-million-votes-used-to-rig-2013-election-raila_c1478146">security forces</a> had been deployed to bring results back to Nairobi.</p>
<p>This was also a major source of concern in 2007. <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/200801020008.html">European Union monitors</a> found that there were serious discrepancies between the results they observed being released locally and those that were subsequently read out nationally.</p>
<h2>How to stop election rigging</h2>
<p>There may be no plans afoot to rig the elections, but in matters of such great importance it’s better to be safe than sorry. So how can the process be safeguarded?</p>
<p>When it comes to the risk of the vote being inflated in North Eastern, the answer is straightforward: international election monitors need to overcome their risk aversion and ensure that the region is thoroughly covered. Deploying a <a href="https://www.oporaua.org/en/news/42847-30-years-of-the-parallel-vote-tabulation-pvt">parallel vote tabulation</a> based on a sample of polling stations would also make it possible to tell whether turnout is artificially high.</p>
<p>The solution to the fiddling of election figures is also straightforward, although it will require political will. If the electoral commission agrees to accept the constituency level results as final – unless there are exceptional cases that would require a full and transparent investigation – domestic observers and the different political parties will be able to record all of the results as they are announced, and use these to ensure that the national total adds up.</p>
<p>That leaves the more tricky issues of fake polling streams and the breakdown of election technology. It is tempting to think that the solution to a breakdown is a technical one – that if the electoral commission learns from its previous mistakes it will be possible to ensure that the system works. But if the threat to the electoral process is <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/04/the-technological-fix/">political rather than logistical</a>, better preparations will not help.</p>
<p>It is therefore important for every party to deploy a full set of <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Cord-should-build-network-of-monitors/440808-3509476-dkv0il/">trained party agents</a>, not just in every polling station but also in every polling stream. This will ensure that the manual process cannot be abused even if the technology fails, and it will enable any fake polling streams to be identified and reported.</p>
<p>This conclusion is probably not one that the parties themselves will want to hear because it involves a lot of hard work and expense. But it is the only thing that will guarantee that the outcome of the election represents the will of the people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nic Cheeseman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The closer the race between the incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, the more Kenyans will start to worry about election rigging.Nic Cheeseman, Professor of Democracy, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/691532016-11-24T21:31:22Z2016-11-24T21:31:22ZA burning question: why are Kenyan students setting fire to their schools?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147341/original/image-20161124-15333-1mzz9xu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dormitories are commonly targeted in school burnings</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elizabeth Cooper</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past few years, students have set fire to <a href="http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2016/07/matiangi-says-special-team-probe-school-arson-cases/">hundreds</a> of secondary schools across Kenya. The tally includes <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/List-of-schools-hit-by-unrest/1056-3318282-14epye8/index.html">more than 120</a> cases in 2016 alone. Why students are setting fire to their schools has been the topic of repeated investigations by police, education officials, government inquiries and journalists. Indeed, explanation – or rather blame – for this trend has been levelled in every conceivable direction. </p>
<p>Kenya’s Education Minister and other members of the government have <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/counties/Kisii/Cartels-fighting-Matiangi-behind-arson-in-schools/1183286-3325876-vth7dpz/index.html">suggested</a> that the fires have been masterminded and supported by “cartels” in retaliation against the government’s crackdown on lucrative exam-cheating schemes. This is a claim <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000210327/students-defy-president-uhuru-kenyatta-s-warning-set-institutions-on-fire">repeated</a> by the President. The government has also fingered <a href="http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2016/07/matiangi-wants-parents-charged-arson-vandalism-schools/">ethnic and clan hostilities</a> as motivating attacks on schools headed by principals who are identified with different communities. </p>
<p>In these ways, the government’s explanations treat students as unwitting pawns in political disputes that are actually not really about them or their schooling. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, many public policy analysts and members of the public have blamed students’ “<a href="http://pjpub.org/perd/perd_147.pdf">indiscipline</a>”. This lack of discipline has been <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/lifestyle/weekend/Education-ministry-to-blame-for-wave-of-arson-in-schools/-/1220/2823442/-/9xxcqaz/-/index.html%E2%80%8B">attributed</a> to lackadaisical parenting as well as the ban on teachers’ use of corporal punishment. </p>
<p>Again, students are understood to be relatively passive receptacles of adults’ management. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.academia.edu/8797764/Students_Arson_and_Protest_Politics_in_Kenya_School_Fires_as_Political_Action%20_">My research</a> with students and in schools across Kenya indicates that most of these explanations miss the mark because they depreciate, rather than appreciate, students’ capacities to engage in purposeful political action.</p>
<h2>Rational political tactics</h2>
<p>In the media, students’ actions are cast as “mindless hooliganism”. But students can rationally explain why they use arson in their schools. Students have learned that setting fire to their schools is an effective tactic for winning acknowledgement of their dissatisfaction. </p>
<p>Their use of arson represents an astute reading of the limited options available to citizens to practice meaningful dialogue and peaceful dissent related to the conditions of public services, such as education. As many analysts have noted, limited options for meaningful citizen engagement in Kenya’s policy arena has given rise to the popularity of a <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201204190425.html">“strike culture”</a>. </p>
<p>In fact, students easily identify other examples from Kenyan political struggles that demonstrate how violence and destruction have proven effective means for citizens to win public and political recognition of their grievances. </p>
<p>As one student explained, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>What I see is that in Kenyan society, the bigger the impact, the quicker the reaction. The government sees these people are serious and they can think “if we don’t meet their grievances now, we might see worse”.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Schooling complaints</h2>
<p>Students target their schools because their grievances tend to be school-based. The most commonly cited complaints among students include principals’ overly authoritarian, “highhanded” and unaccountable styles of management, poor quality school diets and inadequate learning resources, including teaching. Many of these criticisms reflect suspicions about how school budgets are being allocated.</p>
<p>The overwhelming majority of school arson cases have occurred in boarding schools across the country, including boys’ schools, girls’ schools, and mixed schools. Schools that perform well and those that tend to perform more poorly on national examinations have all been affected. </p>
<p>Why are boarding schools such common targets? Some of this is explained by prevalence: nearly <a href="http://www.kicd.ac.ke/images/ICT/2014BasicEducationStatisticalBooklet.pdf">80%</a> of Kenya’s secondary schools are boarding schools. However, students explain that boarding schools are targeted because life for them in these schools can be “like prison”. </p>
<p>The boarding school, like prison, can be considered a “<a href="http://is.muni.cz/el/1423/podzim2009/SOC139/um/soc139_16_Goffman.pdf">total institution</a>”. This idea, theorised by sociologist Erving Goffman, refers to a situation where all aspects of life occur in the same place, with the same cohort and according to a stringent schedule. This regime is enforced by a single authority according to an overarching “rational” plan. In practice, boarding school life is often experienced by students as excessively rigid and authoritarian. </p>
<p>The majority of school fires are set in students’ dormitories, thereby also destroying students’ own personal belongings. The rationale given by students is that the destruction of their dorms means that they will be sent home and given some respite from their intensive boarding school lifestyles. </p>
<h2>Understanding adolescents and risk-taking</h2>
<p>Interviews with students as well as reviews of court case proceedings indicate that it can be difficult for students to imagine the long-lasting detrimental consequences that might arise from setting fires in their schools. </p>
<p>In part, this is due to students holding cynical views of the ineptitude of the Kenyan enforcement and judicial systems. Students note, for example, that many prosecutions fail due to deficient criminal investigations, including unlawful interrogation practices. </p>
<p>Additionally, some students who played active roles in setting fires later claimed that they had been unable to anticipate the scale and scope of the damage the fires would cause to their schools as well as to their own futures. </p>
<p>These kinds of experiences jibe with emergent understandings from neuroscience concerning the unique developmental stage of adolescents’ brains. We now know that the brain is still developing during adolescence. The prefrontal cortex of the brain – which is implicated in impulse control – may not be fully developed and functional until the early 20s or later. Consequently, neurodevelopmental researchers <a href="http://jar.sagepub.com/content/25/1/4.full.pdf+html">theorise</a> that </p>
<blockquote>
<p>adolescents may have less inhibition, be more prone to take risks, more impulsive, and less likely to consider the distal consequences of their actions than adults. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Recognising these potential differences does not cancel out the immediate deliberateness of students’ acts to affect change in ways that they understand to be effective. But it does complicate the question of how to respond to students’ palpable frustrations. </p>
<h2>Alternative possible futures</h2>
<p>All of this indicates that the government’s intention to respond to the trend of school-based arson with more discipline and punishment of students is misguided in two crucial and connected ways. </p>
<p>First, this approach only addresses symptoms exhibited in rebellious acts. At the root of students’ dissatisfaction and desperation is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-kenya-wants-to-overhaul-its-entire-education-system-62840">gruelling education</a> coupled with often unaccountable authority, both of which are acutely experienced through the “total institution” of the boarding school. </p>
<p>Second, threats of more punishment misjudge the unique conditions of adolescence in terms of neuromaturation, and specifically how this can affect risk-taking and consideration of long-term consequences. More threats and interventions of punishment are unlikely to affect these predispositions. </p>
<p>Kenyan students have learned that arson works as a tactic to express dissatisfaction and opposition. To change this lesson, the government needs to open peaceful and effective channels for young people’s perspectives to be taken into account, both in education and government. Otherwise, we can likely expect more fires next year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69153/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Cooper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Acts of arson by Kenyan high school students have been characterised as ‘mindless hooliganism’. But research shows that students are actually engaging in purposeful, reasoned political action.Elizabeth Cooper, Assistant Professor of International Studies, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.