tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/natural-disaster-mitigation-37604/articlesNatural disaster mitigation – The Conversation2023-11-23T12:56:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2178502023-11-23T12:56:40Z2023-11-23T12:56:40ZWe rarely hear about the disasters that were avoided – but there’s a lot we can learn from them<p>When a huge cyclone slammed into East Pakistan (present day Bangladesh) in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(72)91218-4/fulltext">November 1970</a> it caused water in the Ganges Delta to rise by 10 metres. Entire towns were submerged. At least 300,000 people died – it remains atop lists of the deadliest known tropical cyclones.</p>
<p>Something similar happened <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.1993.tb00503.x">in 1991</a> – another 139,000 deaths. Bangladesh has a long list of cyclones with five or six figure death tolls.</p>
<p>These days, Bangladesh has a much larger population and is still getting hit by huge cyclones and widespread flooding. These storms are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6">getting stronger</a>. But these more <a href="https://theconversation.com/bangladesh-has-saved-thousands-of-lives-from-a-devastating-cyclone-heres-how-139903">recent cyclones</a> have each led to only dozens of deaths.</p>
<p>This is what prompted our research project on “<a href="https://disastersavoided.com">Disasters Avoided</a>”. We frequently see headlines about disasters. But where are the headlines covering the good news of lives saved and damage averted when disasters do not happen? Our work, now published, offers examples we can learn from.</p>
<p>We started by seeking examples of <a href="https://disastersavoided.com/case-studies-list">disasters that had been avoided</a>. There had to be a major environmental hazard – such as a tornado, earthquake, drought, wildfire, pathogen, landslide, volcanic eruption or heatwave – that didn’t lead to major casualties or disruption. And that had to be because disaster prevention actions were completed before the hazard struck.</p>
<p>In total, we looked in-depth at a dozen examples covering every inhabited continent. Some of the examples we found were very local. For instance a poorly extinguished campfire <a href="https://www.earthdatascience.org/courses/use-data-open-source-python/data-stories/cold-springs-wildfire/">ignited a wildfire</a> in the mountains of Colorado in July 2016. No one died, but 2,000 people were evacuated and eight houses completely burned.</p>
<p>Eight other houses in the torched forest survived. They were all certified by an NGO called <a href="https://wildfirepartners.org/">Wildfire Partners</a> as having taken its advice on using fire-resistant materials, removing fire-prone vegetation and storing woodpiles away from the house. While one homeowner was able to reoccupy their house immediately, their neighbour had to start rebuilding from scratch.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Burned out suburban neighbourhood" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560764/original/file-20231121-4286-9r92rm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Aftermath of a 2021 fire in Colorado. Most homes are burned to the ground, but some are almost untouched.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/superior-co-january-17-2022-aerial-2109993011">Gabe Shakour / shutterstock</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-06-2022-0135">Other examples</a> are wider-scale. The reduction in cyclone deaths in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25373-7_3">Bangladesh</a> was thanks to a long-term education, preparedness, warning, evacuation and sheltering programme. Actions included making schools a relatively safe place for people to shelter in, and giving volunteers megaphones to cycle around villages warning people. The death count should still be reduced much more, but the improvement over time is clear.</p>
<p>Vietnam also experiences major floods every year, with almost 12 million coastal people exposed. <a href="http://gcfundp-coastalresilience.com.vn/">One five-year project</a> is providing 4,000 flood-resilient houses, while planting coastal mangroves to deal with storm surges. In late 2019, storm Matmo struck Quang Ngai, destroying many houses. Many new flood-resilient houses survived, keeping people safe and supporting agriculture-based livelihoods.</p>
<h2>Scaling up</h2>
<p>Individual case studies are important. But if they are to be useful we need to identify what they can teach us, so we can scale up the local and national successes and transfer lessons to other places. We found six overall patterns:</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="How to avoid disasters diagram" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560769/original/file-20231121-17-979p4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">What to do.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gareth Byatt, Ilan Kelman, and Ana Prados</span></span>
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<ol>
<li><p><strong>The right mindset</strong> to tackle the root causes of disasters and to focus on avoiding them. The right mindset includes understanding that disasters do not come from nature, so we <a href="https://nonaturaldisasters.com/">do not use the phrase “natural disaster”</a>. They are just disasters. They come from <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/disaster-by-choice-9780198841357">the choices</a> we make to live and build in harm’s way, or more frequently to force people to live and work in harm’s way, without having the political power, resources, or opportunities to help themselves deal with hazards.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>The right investment</strong> at the right time, including showing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.08.004">the evidence</a> that it’s money well spent.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Good governance</strong> means well-managed investments and funds that deliver meaningful social, environmental, and livelihood benefits. It promotes actions that must be informed, accountable, and enforced.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Good data</strong> directs good decision-making. We should collect, analyse and act on good data. This data can take many forms and includes the obvious demographic and economic stats, but also observations from satellites, drones, or on-the-ground instruments, or people’s perceptions and experiences.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Meaningful inclusion</strong> of everyone, to agree on how we create a society that can withstand and live with nature’s energies and forces.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Targets that are realistic and achievable</strong> with the available resources. When appropriate, targets can be set, managed and linked to global efforts including the <a href="https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030">Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction</a>, the UN’s <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">Sustainable Development Goals</a>, climate change agreements, and those on <a href="https://habitat3.org/the-new-urban-agenda/">urban</a>, and <a href="https://www.csis.org/programs/humanitarian-agenda">humanitarian</a> agendas.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>These principles also reveal that not all disasters avoided are due to forethinking. Luck can play a role – in some cases, a disaster was avoided simply because there weren’t many humans living in the hazard-affected area. In other cases a disaster was avoided because short-term actions were taken (safe evacuation and sheltering, for instance), and other times because longer-term actions were taken (such as supporting flexible livelihoods that could be restarted immediately after a major hazard).</p>
<p>These categories indicate how we could and should do better, especially by trying to encourage active work towards longer-term planning and preparedness.</p>
<p><a href="http://disastersavoided.com/">Our work on disasters avoided continues</a>, highlighting that everyone needs to be involved. We are documenting <a href="https://irp.cdn-website.com/8bbcaf75/files/uploaded/Enterprise-Risk-Autumn-2023-Avoding-a-disaster.pdf">private sector examples of successes</a> while describing the importance of innovation. </p>
<p>Overall, the baseline that we see time and again in avoiding a disaster is that success comes when a wide variety of people and groups come together in a symphony of action. Disasters are avoided when everyone cares for everyone.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilan Kelman receives research funding from UK research councils, the Wellcome Trust, and NASA who partly supported the research reported here, as well as internal UCL funding. He is Professor II at the University of Agder in Norway, Visiting Researcher at Heidelberg Institute of Global Health in Germany, and co-directs the non-profit organisation Risk RED (Risk Reduction Education for Disasters).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ana Prados receives funding from NASA, who funded part of the research conducted for this article. She is a Senior Research Scientist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gareth Byatt receives research funding from NASA who partly supported the research reported here. He is an independent consultant and a member of the Institute for Risk Management (the IRM).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brady Podloski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We rarely see good news headlines when a cyclone, earthquake or wildfire does not turn disastrous.Ilan Kelman, Professor of Disasters and Health, UCLAna Prados, Senior Research Scientist, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyBrady Podloski, Instructor, Disaster and Emergency Management, Northern Alberta Institute of TechnologyGareth Byatt, Independent Consultant and Visiting Lecturer, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136672023-09-15T14:47:42Z2023-09-15T14:47:42ZLibya flood disaster: scale of the catastrophe must bring the two warring factions together<p>A century ago, the coastal city of Derna was well known for picture-perfect beaches, palm trees and whitewashed villas mainly inhabited by Libya’s Italian colonial occupiers. Today, in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66799518">aftermath of Storm Daniel</a>, which brought 400mm of rain to the region, overwhelming two dams and sweeping millions of tons of water across the city, much of Derna has been flooded. Entire suburbs are reported to have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/12/libya-floods-death-toll-dams-burst">washed into the sea</a> by the tsunami-like wave that barrelled down the normally dry river Wadi Dern through the heart of the city.</p>
<p>The death toll from the catastrophe <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/libya-flooding-death-toll-storm-daniel/story?id=103214362#:%7E:text=The%20Libyan%20Red%20Crescent%20said,another%2010%2C100%20were%20reported%20missing.">is estimated at more than 11,000</a> with another 10,000 missing and feared dead. Countless more people – perhaps one-third of Derna’s inhabitants, have been left homeless.</p>
<p>Derna has been a <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/libya-floods-derna-revolutionary-city-ruined-once-more">centre of resistance</a> to successive Libyan regimes. The former Libyan dictator, Muammar Gaddafi, regarded the city with distrust and deprived it of basic resources and infrastructure. On the eve of Gaddafi’s overthrow by Nato-backed forces in 2011, the Libyan government described Derna as a “hotbed of Islamic fundamentalism”.</p>
<p>In the vacuum left by Gaddafi’s overthrow and the civil war that followed, Derna became a centre for jihadis who pledged their allegiance to Islamic State in 2014. From 2015 to 2018 the <a href="https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/56084/PolicyBrief_2018_09(EN).pdf?sequence=1">city was besieged</a> by Libya’s eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA).</p>
<p>As a result, the city has suffered from decades of neglect and much of its infrastructure dates back to Italian occupation of the country in the early 20th century. The city has <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66797307">no proper hospital and no schools</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1702322193760477557"}"></div></p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230913-libya-s-deadly-dam-collapse-was-decades-in-the-making">Wadi Derna dams</a> that collapsed with such fatal consequences were built in the mid 1970s by a Yugoslav company as part of a project to provide irrigation for the region and drinking water for Derna and other local communities. There are two dams: the biggest, Derna, is 75 metres in height and has a capacity of 18 million cubic meters of water. Mansour is 45 metres and holds 1.5 million cubic metres.</p>
<p>A research paper <a href="https://sebhau.edu.ly/journal/jopas/article/view/2137">published in November 2022</a> said the two were at risk of collapse. In the immediate aftermath of the disaster, Derna’s deputy mayor admitted the dams <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12/infrastructure-in-libyas-derna-not-built-to-withstand-storm-deputy-mayor">had not been maintained</a> since 2002. </p>
<h2>Divided country</h2>
<p>The situation in Libya is exacerbated by the fact that in the civil war that followed the fall of Gaddafi, the country has essentially become split in half. The western region is governed from Tripoli by prime minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/02/libyas-interim-pm-elected-through-bribery-un-inquiry-says">Abdul Hamid Dbeibah</a> and his UN-approved <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whos-who-libyas-war">Government of National Accord</a>, which took power in 2015 with the promise of holding national elections which have yet to be called.</p>
<p>The east is <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whos-who-libyas-war">administered from Tobruk by a National Assembly</a>, established in 2014 and headed by prime minister Osama Hamad. But the real power lies with Haftar, the commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA). Despite not being internationally recognised, the east (which is in reality the majority of Libyan territory, including vast desert areas in the south) has the lion’s share of Libya’s oil wealth. </p>
<p>In 2020, Haftar overplayed his hand in an <a href="https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2019/whats-happening-in-libya-explainer/index.html">unsuccessful attempt to seize Tripoli</a>. This led to a <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076012">UN-brokered ceasefire</a> and the current uneasy de facto division of power between east and west in Libya.</p>
<p>Even before the devastation of Storm Daniel, Libya was in the throes of a humanitarian crisis. In 2021, the UN estimated that more than <a href="https://libyaupdate.com/un-over-800000-people-need-of-humanitarian-aid-in-libya/">800,000 Libyans</a> were in need of aid after two decades of fighting and unrest and little in the way of reconstruction. </p>
<p>International efforts have hitherto largely depended on Tripoli’s approval to allow aid to reach the east. And even once that is given, the task is made more difficult by the fact that bridges and roads connecting the two parts of the country have been badly damaged in the civil war. </p>
<h2>An opportunity to work together?</h2>
<p>One can only hope that the scale of this tragedy becomes a catalyst for a more functional working relationship between the two regions and the international community. There have been tentative signs that this might be the case. The two governments have demonstrated a willingness to cooperate in recent days and the Dbeibah government in Tripoli has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/libya-storm-aid-idAFS8N3A5025">sent a flight</a> with medical supplies and personnel to the disaster zone.</p>
<p>Despite the historic level of animosity between east and west, there have been precedents where the rival have been forced to cooperate on shared interests. Earlier this year, the rival administrations agreed to form a committee to manage the <a href="https://thearabweekly.com/libyan-rivals-agree-work-together-sharing-oil-revenues">distribution of oil revenues</a> which form the backbone of Libya’s economy. </p>
<p>International aid is beginning to reach the disaster zone. Though the international community does not officially recognise Haftar-led regime, it will inevitably be the primary player in managing and mitigating the effects of this crisis. </p>
<p>Countries that want to help the Libyan citizens most affected will have to work with the Haftar-backed leadership. It is hoped this international engagement could thereby play an important role in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/libyans-come-together-flood-aid-effort-despite-conflict-2023-09-14/">facilitating a rapprochement</a> between the two parts of the country.</p>
<p>Both Libya’s governments have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/14/libya-call-for-inquiry-fury-death-toll-catastrophic-floods">called for an inquiry</a> into the disaster. The chairman of the Presidential Council, <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2167301/world">Mohamed al-Menfi</a>, based in Tobruk, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/14/libya-call-for-inquiry-fury-death-toll-catastrophic-floods#:%7E:text=Menfi%20said%20he%20wanted%20the,collapse%20of%20the%20city's%20dams%E2%80%9D.">said the inquiry</a> should “hold accountable everyone who made a mistake or neglected by abstaining or taking actions that resulted in the collapse of the city’s dams”. </p>
<p>Libya’s attorney general, <a href="https://africanarguments.org/2023/03/libyas-captured-prosecutor/">Al-Siddiq Al-Sour</a>, who is based in Tripoli but officially has jurisdiction over the whole country, called for an investigation into allegations local officials imposed a curfew on the night Storm Daniel struck.</p>
<p>But before any blame is apportioned, the rescue operation must be given priority by both governments, who will need to take a proactive, pragmatic and principled attitude towards working together in the interests of the whole country. Far-fetched as this may seem, it could be a valuable learning experience for both sides.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dina Rezk receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council and the Leverhulme Trust.</span></em></p>There are signs that the two rival governments are trying to work together in the disaster relief effort.Dina Rezk, Lecturer in Middle Eastern History, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2018632023-08-09T19:53:09Z2023-08-09T19:53:09ZCanadians are unprepared for natural hazards. Here’s what we can do about it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524785/original/file-20230507-95951-vgybjx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C0%2C8198%2C5533&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Damaged buildings sit in the water along the shore following Hurricane Fiona in Rose Blanche-Harbour Le Cou, N.L. in September, 2022. Fiona left a trail of destruction across much of Atlantic Canada.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canadians-are-unprepared-for-natural-hazards-heres-what-we-can-do-about-it" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Over the last year, Canada has made important progress toward making it easier for people to determine if they’re at risk from natural hazard disasters. But many people across the country still lack awareness about the risks they face and the steps they can take to prepare for them. </p>
<p>The summer of 2023 has been marked by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federl-wildfire-record-worst-summer-1.6898955">record-breaking wildfires</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/23/americas/nova-scotia-canada-rain-floods/index.html">floods</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/how-hot-is-it-around-the-world-millions-sweat-in-record-breaking-heat-waves-as/article_1424fc18-77e2-51cb-9b0d-42a20db7cf8c.html">heat waves</a> across Canada.</p>
<p>As natural hazards and extreme weather events <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9091585/canada-climate-disasters-damage-report/">increase in frequency and severity</a> across the country, there’s no shortage of educational initiatives aimed at helping Canadian households and communities learn about and prepare for these risks. </p>
<p>The 2023 federal government budget proposed $15.3 million to create a <a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/2023/report-rapport/chap4-en.html#Raising%20Awareness%20of%20Flood%20Risks">publicly accessible online portal</a> where Canadians can access information about their exposure to floods. <a href="http://floodsmartcanada.ca/floodplain-maps/">Flood maps</a> are already available for most provinces and territories. </p>
<p>The investment came on the heels of the release of Natural Resource Canada’s <a href="https://riskprofiler.ca/">RiskProfiler</a>, an online platform that provides information about Canadians’ potential risk from earthquakes. In anticipation of the 2023 wildfire season, FireSmart Canada published an updated <a href="https://firesmartcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Begins-at-Home-Guide-WEB.pdf">fire safety home guide</a>.</p>
<p>But it remains unclear whether — and which types of — initiatives are effective at raising awareness. Recent research shows that Canadians’ awareness and preparedness for natural hazard disasters is <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2021/sp-ps/PS4-280-2021-1-eng.pdf">consistently low</a> and <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2015001/article/14234-eng.htm">unevenly distributed</a> among different segments of the population. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="an aerial view of a neighborhood of burned down buildings along a road." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524687/original/file-20230505-18227-r0oknz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Much of the town of Lytton, B.C. was destroyed by wildfires in June 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Inclusive resilience</h2>
<p>There is insufficient research exploring how factors like the language, gender or socioeconomic status of at-risk Canadians influence disaster awareness and preparedness.</p>
<p>This is a significant blind spot in Canada’s disaster management. Studies from around the world show an individual’s decision to protect their home and family from hazards is mediated by an array of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2012.03.011">social</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9500-2">cultural</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.09.013">economic</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01783.x">cognitive</a> factors. </p>
<p>People’s cognitive biases might explain why, for example, people who live on a flood plain might <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/partners-for-action/past-projects/canadian-voices-flood-risk-2020">not be aware of their flood risk</a>. Moreover, having resources, time and money can also dictate whether those who are in flood-prone areas take steps to reduce their risk.</p>
<p>Understanding what drives and deters people to protect themselves will help governments and emergency management practitioners when engaging with the public, and ultimately give people the tools they need to become more resilient to disasters. Insights about the barriers and enablers to preparedness are also critical for advancing equitable and effective risk communication aimed at reaching specific demographic groups.</p>
<p>We are researchers with the <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/inclusive-resilience/">Inclusive Resilience project</a> led by the Canadian Red Cross. Our research provides insights into disaster awareness and preparedness among at-risk Canadians, as well as their preferences for risk communications. </p>
<p>The project’s goals are to identify the most effective means to increase awareness of hazards and to promote practical tools and actions that foster inclusive resilience among five at-risk groups: women, older adults, people with low income, Indigenous Peoples and newcomers to Canada.</p>
<p>The Canadian Red Cross worked with <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/partners-for-action/">Partners for Action (P4A)</a>, a University of Waterloo research initiative focused on flood risk and resilience, to support the goals of the project. Inclusive resilience is an approach that ensures all people have an opportunity to make meaningful contributions to decision-making, planning and response efforts to natural hazard risks.</p>
<h2>Need for varied disaster preparedness</h2>
<p><a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/inclusive-resilience/sites/default/files/uploads/documents/crc-p4a-finalreport-en.pdf">Through 500 telephone surveys and a total of 15 online interviews and focus groups</a>, our team at P4A engaged with people belonging to one or more of the five at-risk groups living in flood, wildfire and/or earthquake hazard zones. </p>
<p>Participants reflected on their knowledge of and opinions about natural hazards; shared feedback on educational materials on natural hazards preparedness; and explained the challenges they face in protecting their families and communities from these hazards.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men sifting through the rubble of a damaged building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525192/original/file-20230509-23-ahwfly.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People clear out a damaged home in Burnt Island, N.L. following Hurricane Fiona in September 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Across all demographic groups, awareness of and preparedness for natural hazards were generally low. </p>
<p>However, we did find some patterns. People who shared demographic characteristics or lived in similar areas shared common viewpoints and behaviours about natural hazards. They also had common preferences for how they learned about the risks they face from natural hazards.</p>
<p>For example, women listed social media as their preferred risk communication channel. Residents of Richmond, B.C. were more aware of and prepared for their local hazard risks (flood and earthquake) than any other communities in our sample.</p>
<p>Participants with low incomes were less prepared for emergencies than others and consistently cited the cost of preparing as their greatest hurdle. Additionally, newcomers also expressed a lack of awareness, how to prepare and who to turn to for information as their top barriers to preparedness.</p>
<h2>Clear and tailored resources</h2>
<p>The ability for demographics and place to unify people’s attitudes about natural hazards indicates that communications, programs and resources need to be tailored to local contexts.</p>
<p>Participants in our study expressed a desire for varied disaster preparedness advice, such as strategies for tenants and tailored resources for apartments and highrises, as opposed to single-family homes. </p>
<p>They also saw value in preparing for natural hazards with their communities, such as at local cultural events, in the workplace and schools, in addition to their individual households. Bringing together people who already know each other further <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102060">strengthens those connections and boosts motivation</a> to continue building momentum for preparedness as a community.</p>
<p>The study was limited by the relatively small number of participants. That reduces our ability to make generalizations based on our findings. Nevertheless, the research offers guidance on how disaster prevention efforts can be shaped to reduce risk and enhance the resilience of communities.</p>
<p>In this new era of heightened natural hazard risk, practitioners need to engage the populations they wish to reach, and collaborate with communities to ensure that interventions are effective in reducing disaster risk and enhancing resilience.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eva Angelyna (Evalyna) Bogdan receives research funding from Canada's Tri-agency funding programs, York University and the Government of Alberta. Her work for P4A on the Inclusive Resilience project received funding from Public Safety Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Krueger's work for P4A on the Inclusive Resilience project received funding from Public Safety Canada.</span></em></p>As extreme weather events increase in frequency and severity, many Canadians are still unaware of how to prepare for a natural disaster.Eva Angelyna (Evalyna) Bogdan, Assistant Professor, Disaster and Emergency Management, York University, CanadaRachel Krueger, Research Assistant, Partners for Action, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1993792023-02-14T17:12:19Z2023-02-14T17:12:19ZEarthquake in Turkey exposes gap between seismic knowledge and action – but it is possible to prepare<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509934/original/file-20230214-20-yee2jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C613%2C6689%2C3842&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Worst-hit areas in Turkey were reduced to rubble.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/search-and-rescue-efforts-continue-at-collapsed-buildings-news-photo/1247118100?phrase=earthquake&adppopup=true">Erhan Sevenler/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two days after a <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/turkey-syria-earthquake-133775">devastating earthquake struck</a>, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/08/middleeast/turkey-earthquake-public-anger-intl/index.html">visited one of the worst affected areas and declared</a> that it was “not possible to be prepared for such a disaster.”</p>
<p>Certainly the scale of the destruction was unforeseen. The death toll from the earthquakes of Feb. 6, 2023, that struck Turkey and northern Syria is still climbing. But one week on, it has been documented that <a href="https://apnews.com/article/earthquakes-2023-turkey-syria-earthquake-government-8694408019fb13a8131cb146c347ec88">over 35,000 people were killed</a>, with more than 50,000 injured and over 1,000,000 <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkey-syria-earthquake-why-it-is-so-difficult-to-get-rescue-and-relief-to-where-it-is-most-needed-199618">receiving aid for survival</a> in bitter cold conditions. The magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit while many were sleeping in the town of Pazarcık in Kahramanmaraş, southern Turkey – the epicenter of the quake. It was followed nine hours later by a major aftershock in Elbistan, a town about 50 miles from the initial quake, sending buildings weakened in the first shock to total collapse.</p>
<p><iframe id="jMhsZ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jMhsZ/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The final death tolls are likely to place these two successive earthquakes among the worst natural disasters that have been witnessed in the world.</p>
<p>The sobering question <a href="https://www.gspia.pitt.edu/people/louise-k-comfort">to us</a>, <a href="https://stat.metu.edu.tr/en/burcak-basbug-erkan">as disaster</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UHDiBosAAAAJ&hl=en">mitigation scholars</a>, is whether this enormous loss of lives, homes and livelihoods could have been avoided. There is no way to prevent an earthquake from occurring, but what can be prevented – or at least curtailed – is the scale of the calamity caused by these inevitable tremors.</p>
<p>In our view, any suggestion that a country cannot “be prepared” for an earthquake of the magnitude that hit Turkey and northern Syria is a political statement – that is, it reflects the political choices that were made rather than the science. In Turkey, the lack of preparedness contrasts sharply with the known conditions of seismic risk that the country faces.</p>
<h2>Missed opportunities</h2>
<p>According to the <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/turkey/turkeys-new-earthquake-hazard-map-published">Turkey Earthquake Hazard Map</a>, which was revised and published in 2018, nearly all of Turkey is vulnerable to seismic risk, with two significant fault lines – the East Anatolian Fault zone and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/06/world/turkey-earthquake-faultlines.html">North Anatolian Fault zone</a> – crisscrossing the country.</p>
<p>The North Anatolian Fault, 870 miles (1,400 kilometers) long, runs east to west across the northern half of the country, menacing the major cities of Ankara, the country’s capital, and Istanbul, and threatening the most industrialized section of the country. The East Anatolian Fault, about 620 miles (nearly 1,000 kilometers) in length, runs diagonally across the southeastern part of the country. It covers an area of smaller cities and villages, but millions of people are at risk in the region.</p>
<p>Turkey has made repeated efforts to address this fundamental seismic risk. In 1959, <a href="https://uu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1086710/FULLTEXT01.pdf">the Turkish parliament passed Disaster Law 7269</a>, establishing a plan to institute disaster preparedness regulations at national, provincial and municipal levels. The law raised awareness to some degree, but five significant earthquakes in the 1990s shattered any expectations that existing preparedness measures were sufficient to protect the growing population from death and destruction.</p>
<p>After the devastating <a href="http://ifrc.org/article/marmara-earthquake-20-years">1999 earthquakes in the Marmara region</a> of northwestern Turkey – in which more than 17,000 died – the Turkish government instituted a major program of recovery and rebuilding intended to strengthen building codes and improve cross-jurisdictional coordination. Yet, this ambitious program was hampered by chronic <a href="https://nordicmonitor.com/2023/02/mismanagement-waste-of-funds-corruption-aggravated-turkeys-troubles-in-quake-preparedness/">corruption and weak implementation</a> of the building codes.</p>
<p>The Turkish government also levied an “earthquake tax” after the 1999 disaster, purportedly to raise funds to better prepare the country for future quakes. Since it was passed, an <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/inside-turkish-president-recep-tayyip-erdogans-evil-and-disturbing-attempt-to-censor-criticism-following-deadly-earthquakes/news-story/27c381626411a95e195e51751a796284">estimated US$4.6 billion</a> has been raised through the levy. But there are <a href="https://www.wionews.com/videos/gravitas-did-turkiye-misuse-earthquake-tax-560763">serious questions</a> over <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/09/1155647266/turkey-earthquake-erdogan-government-response-criticism">how the money has been spent</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A car is parked outside a building that has subsided on one side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509946/original/file-20230214-26-c50nhw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509946/original/file-20230214-26-c50nhw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509946/original/file-20230214-26-c50nhw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509946/original/file-20230214-26-c50nhw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509946/original/file-20230214-26-c50nhw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509946/original/file-20230214-26-c50nhw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509946/original/file-20230214-26-c50nhw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The destruction caused by Turkey’s 1999 earthquake.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/car-is-parked-in-front-of-a-destroyed-building-in-duzce-14-news-photo/51398243?phrase=earthquake%201999%20turkey&adppopup=true">Manoocher Deghati/AFP via Getty Image</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Then in 2009, Turkey instituted a <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/turkey/turkey-leads-earthquake-safety">National Disaster and Emergency Management Authority</a> to build capacity for disaster risk reduction and management.</p>
<p>AFAD’s mission was to organize disaster preparedness training for provincial and municipal officials and to conduct disaster preparedness training exercises for communities at risk. The approach was to decentralize and reverse the top-down governance approach, enabling local communities to strengthen their own capacity for managing disaster risk.</p>
<p>In a further bid to strengthen Turkey’s preparedness, the country <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/turkey-national-disaster-response-plan">introduced a National Disaster Response Plan</a> in 2014. It set out the role of government institutions in case of a disaster under sections such as nutrition group, emergency sheltering group and communication group. </p>
<p>After the Soma mine accident of 2014, in which 301 miners were killed in an underground fire, the Turkish government initiated a review of the national plan. It appointed an international advisory committee that included participants from Japan, the U.S. and Europe to review the existing law and make recommendations for change.</p>
<p>The resulting recommendations included regular monitoring of risk, improved training of emergency personnel and updated technologies for interagency communication. The plan was presented to Turkey’s political leadership, which approved the changes in principle with a view to begin implementation in January 2015.</p>
<p>But the fully revised National Disaster Management Plan was never implemented. In early 2015, the national government changed the leadership of the National Disaster and Emergency Management Authority. In the process, experienced personnel who had advocated for better training, advanced communications technology and updated equipment for local governments were replaced. From our observation, this shift had the effect of reducing the capacity of local governments to take immediate action when hazards occur, as funds for training, new equipment and additional personnel were not granted. Although the plan was in place, little action was taken.</p>
<h2>Lessons from Japan, California</h2>
<p>The nonimplementation of the revised disaster plan reflects the gap between knowledge and action in managing Turkey’s seismic risk. It is not possible to stop the earthquakes, but it is possible to construct buildings that do not collapse and kill their residents on a massive scale – as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-01-13/japan-earthquakes-typhoons-disaster-proofing-lessons-for-the-world">both Japan</a> and <a href="https://www.caloes.ca.gov/office-of-the-director/operations/planning-preparedness-prevention/seismic-hazards/earthquake-preparedness/">California have managed to do</a>.</p>
<p>Turkey has designed and approved building codes that are the <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/11511/87351">equivalent of the rigorous codes</a> implemented in seismically challenged California. And there are approximately <a href="http://www.ecceengineers.eu/members/members/turkey.php?id=39">150,000 civil engineers</a> in Turkey who have the knowledge and skills to construct buildings, roads and dams that may suffer strain from seismic events but not fail.</p>
<p>But the cost of upgrading existing subpar buildings causes the effort to proceed at a glacially slow pace. While the building design regulation introduced in 2000 is implemented well in major cities, its state-of-the art requirements are poorly understood by engineers in the rest of the country.</p>
<p>A building construction supervision system has been in place since 2010, but its coverage is still too narrow to monitor the country’s 16 million buildings. </p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>Turkey again is at a crossroads and this latest disaster creates an urgent call for national action. Short-term solutions – rebuilding the same style of flawed housing and infrastructure – will only increase the chance of future tragedies. </p>
<p>But there is another course. Turkey’s current generation of engineers, economists, policy analysts and leaders can opt for bold action: redesigning their built environment to live with seismic risk, and engaging the whole population of Turkey in an ongoing experiment to create a society that recognizes earthquakes as a continuing threat that can be managed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199379/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louise K. Comfort has received funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation through the Quick Response grant program at the Natural Hazards Center, University of Colorado, Boulder and the University of Pittsburgh for three previous reconnaissance studies of earthquakes in Turkey. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Burcak Erkan is affiliated with Gelecek Partisi (Future Party) in Turkey. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Polat Gulkan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Turkey has repeatedly attempted to improve its earthquake preparedness. So what went wrong?Louise K. Comfort, Professor of Public and International Affairs, former Director of the Center for Disaster Management, University of PittsburghBurcak Basbug Erkan, Associate Professor at Department of Statistics, Middle East Technical UniversityPolat Gulkan, Professor of Earthquake Structural Engineering, Başkent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1993892023-02-07T02:02:15Z2023-02-07T02:02:15ZEarthquake footage shows Turkey’s buildings collapsing like pancakes. An expert explains why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508530/original/file-20230207-21-fclmjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C0%2C4479%2C2983&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mustafa Karali / AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A pair of huge earthquakes have struck in Turkey, leaving <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64533851">more than 3,000 people dead</a> and unknown numbers injured or displaced. </p>
<p>The first quake, near Gaziantep close to the Syrian border, <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000jllz/executive">measured 7.8 in magnitude</a> and was felt as far away as the UK. The second occurred nine hours later, on what appears to be an intersecting fault, registering <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000jlqa/executive">a magnitude of 7.5</a>. </p>
<p>Adding to the devastation, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/05/world/europe/turkey-earthquake-rescue.html">some 3,450 buildings have collapsed</a>, according to the Turkish government. Many of the modern buildings have failed in a “<a href="https://www.newcivilengineer.com/archive/pancake-collapses-tell-story-of-poor-construction-15-02-2001/">pancake mode</a>” of structural collapse. </p>
<p>Why did this happen? Was it simply the enormous magnitude and violence of the quake, or is the problem with the buildings?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/turkey-syria-earthquakes-a-seismologist-explains-what-has-happened-199340">Turkey-Syria earthquakes: a seismologist explains what has happened</a>
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<h2>Thousands of years of earthquakes</h2>
<p>Earthquakes are common in Turkey, which sits in a very seismically active region where three tectonic plates constantly grind against one another beneath Earth’s surface. Historical records of earthquakes in the region go back at least 2,000 years, to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AD_17_Lydia_earthquake">a quake in 17 CE</a> that levelled a dozen towns. </p>
<p>The East Anatolian Fault zone that hosted these earthquakes is at the boundary between the Arabian and Anatolian tectonic plates, which move past each other at approximately 6 to 10 mm per year. The elastic strain that accumulates in this plate boundary zone is released by intermittent earthquakes, which have occurred for millions of years. The recent earthquakes are thus not a surprise.</p>
<p>Despite this well-known seismic hazard, the region contains a lot of vulnerable infrastructure.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/earthquakes-dont-kill-our-collapsing-structures-do-so-how-can-we-build-them-to-stay-up-64443">Earthquakes don't kill, our collapsing structures do. So how can we build them to stay up?</a>
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<p>Over the past 2,000 years we have learnt a lot about <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Spotlight/How-Japan-s-builders-absorbed-the-lessons-of-the-2011-earthquake">how to construct buildings</a> that can withstand the shaking from even severe earthquakes. However, in reality, there are many factors that influence building construction practices in this region and others worldwide.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1622522988661981189"}"></div></p>
<h2>Poor construction is a known problem</h2>
<p>Many of the collapsed buildings appear to have been built from concrete without adequate seismic reinforcement. Seismic building codes in this region <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/737/1/012015">suggest</a> these buildings should be able to sustain strong earthquakes (where the ground accelerates by 30% to 40% of the normal gravity) without incurring this type of complete failure. </p>
<p>The 7.8 and 7.5 earthquakes appear to have caused shaking in the range of 20 to 50% of gravity. A proportion of these buildings thus failed at shaking intensities lower than the “design code”. </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://revkin.substack.com/p/gauging-losses-and-lessons-in-turkeys">well-known problems in Turkey</a> and elsewhere with ensuring safe building construction and adherence to seismic building codes. Similar building collapses have been seen in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/daily/aug99/buildings21.htm">past earthquakes in Turkey</a>.</p>
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<img alt="An aerial photo of a collapsed building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508541/original/file-20230207-17-hnmtis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508541/original/file-20230207-17-hnmtis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508541/original/file-20230207-17-hnmtis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508541/original/file-20230207-17-hnmtis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508541/original/file-20230207-17-hnmtis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508541/original/file-20230207-17-hnmtis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508541/original/file-20230207-17-hnmtis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A known problem: a collapsed apartment building after the 1999 earthquake in Izmit, Turkey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hurriyet / AP</span></span>
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<p>In 1999, a huge quake near Izmit saw some 17,000 people dead and as many as <a href="https://ilkha.com/english/analysis/today-marks-the-21st-anniversary-of-marmara-earthquake-9525">20,000 buildings</a> collapse.</p>
<p>After a quake in 2011 in which hundreds of people died, Turkey’s then prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/oct/26/turkey-earthquake-building-negligence-erdogan">blamed</a> shoddy construction for the high death toll, saying: “Municipalities, constructors and supervisors should now see that their negligence amounts to murder.”</p>
<h2>Reconstruction</h2>
<p>Even though Turkish authorities know many buildings are unsafe in earthquakes, it is still a difficult problem to solve. Many of the buildings are already built, and seismic retrofitting may be expensive or not considered a priority compared to other socio-economic challenges.</p>
<p>However, reconstruction after the quake may present an opportunity to rebuild more safely. In 2019, Turkey <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/turkiye-building-resilience-against-earthquakes">adopted new regulations</a> to ensure buildings are better equipped to handle shaking. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1622626821731676164"}"></div></p>
<p>While the new rules are welcome, it remains to be seen whether they will lead to genuine improvements in building quality.</p>
<p>In addition to substantive loss of life and infrastructure damage, both earthquakes are likely to have caused a myriad of environmental effects, such as ruptured ground surfaces, liquified soil, and landslides. These effects may render many areas unsafe to rebuild on – so reconstruction efforts should also include <a href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/3361/2020/">planning decisions about what can be built where</a>, to lower future risks.</p>
<p>For now, aftershocks continue to shake the region, and search and rescue efforts continue. Once the dust settles, reconstruction will begin – but will we see stronger buildings, able to withstand the next quake, or more of the same?</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/earthquake-in-turkey-and-syria-how-satellites-can-help-rescue-efforts-199357">Earthquake in Turkey and Syria: how satellites can help rescue efforts</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199389/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Quigley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When Monday’s earthquake struck, many poorly constructed buildings suffered a ‘pancake mode’ collapse.Mark Quigley, Associate Professor of Earthquake Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1993572023-02-06T17:01:03Z2023-02-06T17:01:03ZEarthquake in Turkey and Syria: how satellites can help rescue efforts<p>In disasters like the <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2023/02/06/le-sud-de-la-turquie-frappe-par-un-seisme-de-magnitude-7-8_6160659_3210.html">7.8 magnitude earthquake</a> and <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=us6000jlqa&extent=30.41078,25.37842&extent=42.90816,49.98779">7.5-magnitude aftershock</a> that struck Syria and Turkey on February 6, 2023, international cooperation on satellite imaging plays a crucial role in the rescue and recovery efforts.</p>
<p>Such data enables humanitarian aid to better deliver water and food by mapping the condition of roads, bridges, buildings, and – most crucially – identifying populations trying to escape potential aftershocks by gathering in stadiums or other open spaces.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="satellite photo and location of multiple earthquakes that have struck Turkey and Syria" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508350/original/file-20230206-31-phy2vy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Earthquakes that have occurred since Sunday afternoon, February 5, in the region. In blue, the 7.8 magnitude earthquake. In orange, the numerous aftershocks: the size of the disc indicates the magnitude.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=us6000jllz&extent=23.68477,12.74414&extent=48.54571,61.96289&baseLayer=satellite">USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To quickly turn the eyes of satellites toward the affected areas, the Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (<a href="https://en.afad.gov.tr/">AFAD</a>) requested the activation of the international charter on <a href="https://disasterscharter.org/web/guest/home">“Space and Major Disasters”</a> at 7:04 a.m. local time. The United Nations did so for Syria at 11:29 local time.</p>
<p>In the meantime, 11 space agencies got ready to operate the most appropriate optical and radar satellites. For France, these are the optical satellites <a href="https://spot.cnes.fr/fr">Spot</a>, <a href="https://pleiades.cnes.fr/en/PLEIADES/index.htm">Pléaides</a> and <a href="https://earth.esa.int/eogateway/missions/pleiades-neo">Pléiades Neo</a> (medium, high and very high resolution), which will provide the first images as they pass over the area. Radar satellites will complement the optical information, as they also operate at night and through clouds, and can image landslides and even very small changes in altitude.</p>
<p>Every year, millions of people around the world are affected by disasters, whether natural (cyclone, tornado, typhoon, earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, tsunami, flood, forest fire, etc.) or man-made (oil pollution, industrial explosions, and more). Unfortunately, the intensity and frequency of these disasters are increasing with climate change, creating more and more victims, damaged homes, and devastated landscapes.</p>
<h2>Anatomy of a disaster</h2>
<p>The international charter on <a href="https://disasterscharter.org/web/guest/home">“Space and Major Disasters”</a> defines a disaster as a large-scale, sudden, unique and uncontrolled event, resulting in loss of life or damage to property and the environment, and requiring urgent action to acquire and provide data.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466030/original/file-20220530-20-a1wa4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Landslide in Munnar, India. Access to affected areas is often difficult.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/rakesh/1933161414/">Rakesh Pai/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>The charter was created by the National Space Research Centre and the European Space Agency in 1999, soon joined by the Canadian Space Agency. Today, <a href="https://disasterscharter.org/web/guest/home">17 member space agencies</a> have joined forces to provide free satellite imagery as quickly as possible over the disaster area. Since 2000, the charter has been activated 797 times in more than 154 countries. It has since been complemented by similar initiatives from Europe (<a href="https://emergency.copernicus.eu/">Copernicus Emergency</a>) and Asia (<a href="https://sentinel-asia.org/">Sentinel Asia</a>).</p>
<p>Almost three quarters of the activations of the charter are due to weather phenomena: storms, hurricanes and especially floods, which alone account for half of the activations. In these sometimes unforeseen crisis situations, when the ground is damaged or flooded and roads are impassable, land-based resources are not always able to analyse the extent of the disaster and organise relief and humanitarian aid in the best possible way. By capturing the situation from space, with very high resolution, satellites provide crucial information quickly.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466035/original/file-20220530-20-mecx69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Hurricane Harvey caused flooding in Texas in 2018, displacing 30,000 people, and requiring the rescue of 17,000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sentinelhub/46200452394/in/album-72157704784948961/">Sentinel Hub/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In some cases, the charter cannot be activated. This can be because the subject matter is outside the scope of the charter (wars and armed conflicts) or because space imagery is sometimes of little interest (in the case of heat waves and epidemics), or because the phenomenon evolves slowly and over a long time span (droughts).</p>
<h2>Satellite data in response to crises around the world</h2>
<p>As soon as a disaster occurs, satellites are programmed to quickly acquire images over the affected areas. More than 60 satellites, optical or radar, can be mobilised at any given time.</p>
<p>Depending on the type of disaster, different satellites will be mobilised, based on pre-established crisis plans – among them: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TanDEM-X">TerraSAR-X/Tandem-X</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QuickBird">QuickBird-2</a>, <a href="https://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/fra/satellites/radarsat/default.asp">Radarsat</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programme_Landsat">Landsat-7/8</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPOT_(satellite)">SPOT</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pl%C3%A9iades_(satellite)">Pleiades</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel-2">Sentinel-2</a> among others.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466033/original/file-20220530-16-b4snga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russian forest fires in the Irkutsk region in 2017, caused by lightning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sentinelhub/46200453044/in/photostream/">Sentinel Hub/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Optical images are similar to photos seen from space, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/sismo-citoyens-et-chercheurs-du-monde-entier-sallient-pour-comprendre-le-recent-seisme-dha-ti-166787">radar images</a> can be more difficult to interpret by non-experts. So following the disaster, satellite information is reworked to make it easier to understand. For example, the images are transformed into impact or change maps for rescue workers, flood alert maps for the public, and mapping of burnt or flooded areas with damage estimates for decision-makers.</p>
<p>Collaborative work between field users and satellite operators is essential. Progress has been made thanks to innovations in Earth observation technologies (notably the performance of optical resolutions – from 50 to 20 metres and now 30 centimetres) and 3D data processing software, but also thanks to the development of digital tools that can couple satellite and in situ data. The needs of the field have also contributed to the evolution of the charter’s intervention processes in terms of delivery time and quality of the products delivered.</p>
<h2>Reconstruction after disasters</h2>
<p>Emergency management is of course essential, but it is equally vital for all affected countries to consider reconstruction and the future. Indeed, the <a href="https://centredecrise.be/fr/que-font-les-autorites/le-cycle-du-risque">“risk cycle”</a> posits that reconstruction, resilience and risk prevention all play an important role in the return to normality. While disasters cannot be predicted, they can be better prepared for, especially in countries where they are recurrent. For example, residents could benefit from earthquake-resistant construction, the creation of safe gathering places or relocating to living areas to safe locations. Learning survival skills is also crucial.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466034/original/file-20220530-14-np1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Floods in Gan in Béarn in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/pezon64/42709789225/">Bernard Pez/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several initiatives, called <a href="https://www.recovery-observatory.org/drupal/en/node/811">“reconstruction observatories”</a>, have been carried out after major disasters – two examples are Haiti in 2021 and in Beirut after the 2019 port explosion. The aim is to coordinate satellite images to enable a detailed and dynamic assessment of damage to buildings, roads, farms, forests and more in the most affected areas, to monitor reconstruction planning, to reduce risks and to monitor changes over a three- to four-year time horizon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emilie Bronner ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Using space imagery can help guide relief efforts to critical areas during a natural disaster.Emilie Bronner, Représentante CNES au Secrétariat Exécutif de la Charte Internationale Espace et Catastrophes Majeures, Centre national d’études spatiales (CNES)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1974072023-01-16T02:30:00Z2023-01-16T02:30:00ZDisastrous floods in WA – why were we not prepared?<p>The devastating floods sweeping through the Kimberley region of Western Australia have caused unimaginable destruction, leaving remote Indigenous communities stranded in its aftermath. </p>
<p>Heartbreaking <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/05/theyve-been-texting-us-for-food-remote-communities-left-abandoned-in-kimberley-flood-response">reports</a> detail community members desperately seeking assistance from loved ones in Perth. In one case, over 40 people were forced to seek refuge under one roof — unable to access emergency shelters filled beyond capacity. </p>
<p>Some Kimberley locals have taken matters into their own hands by using local boats for search and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/09/kimberley-communities-eligible-for-financial-relief-after-unprecedented-flooding">rescue</a> missions. The government has also since begun organising delivering supplies to these communities in need. However, Derby Shire Council President Geoff Haerewa told the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/09/kimberley-communities-eligible-for-financial-relief-after-unprecedented-flooding">Guardian</a> he felt authorities could have done “a lot more” to prepare for the flooding. </p>
<p>Climate disasters are no longer unprecedented, with both <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-13/flood-climate-change-atmospheric-rivers-study/100616546">scientists</a> and <a href="https://iview.abc.net.au/show/songlines-solutions-to-climate/video/NS2020H001S00">First Nations</a> people warning of future disaster weather events. Australia needs to do better with disaster prevention, so vulnerable communities don’t have to go through this again. </p>
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<h2>Atmospheric rivers</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.noaa.gov/stories/what-are-atmospheric-rivers">Atmospheric rivers</a> are long, narrow lanes of moist air transported in the atmosphere. According to the <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/atmospheric-rivers-in-australia/">ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes</a>, these weather patterns can be beneficial for breaking droughts. However they can contribute to heavy flooding, as we saw in last year’s <a href="https://riskfrontiers.com/insights/eastern-australian-floods-february-april-2022/">floods</a> in South East Queensland and NSW.</p>
<p>Scientists have identified that higher sea surface temperatures, increased concentrations of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-13/flood-climate-change-atmospheric-rivers-study/100616546">atmospheric rivers</a>, and other <a href="https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/sea-surface-temperature-increase#more">climate-related</a> events can lead to more severe floods, storms, droughts, and heatwaves.</p>
<p>Atmospheric rivers have devastated the Kimberley region with its highest level of rain since records began in 1904. Some areas received as much as <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/weather-update-kimberly-floods-emergency-situation-declared-in-wa-as-outback-transforms-into-inland-sea/8c1f348d-440d-4fef-abe4-86faac95228e">831mm</a> of rain in a single week. Intense storms and cyclones in Western Australia have also caused heavy rainfall over the past several months.</p>
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<h2>Disaster management plans need to consider Indigenous peoples</h2>
<p>Indigenous communities are among the <a href="https://www2.ohchr.org/english/issues/climatechange/docs/IUCN.pdf">most vulnerable</a> to the impacts of climate change. Yet, current Australian disaster risk management approaches fail to consider the needs of Indigenous communities, such as housing shortages and reduced access to medical services. This leaves them vulnerable to disaster events like flooding. Most towns and communities in WA have no climate adaptation plans in place.</p>
<p>Some Indigenous communities in Australia are reliant on bush food and hunting for sustenance, especially for those living in outlying areas. These activities are made impossible when flood events occur, heightening pre-existing food insecurity issues faced within disaster-affected homelands. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/like-rivers-in-the-sky-the-weather-system-bringing-floods-to-queensland-will-become-more-likely-under-climate-change-176711">Like rivers in the sky: the weather system bringing floods to Queensland will become more likely under climate change</a>
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<p>Floods can also bring many health issues for local communities. Dangers include contaminated drinking water and being cut off from medical care and supplies due to infrastructure damage, as we are seeing now in the Kimberley region. Large amounts of standing water can also create an ideal environment for <a href="https://www.healthywa.wa.gov.au/Articles/A_E/Diseases-transmitted-by-mosquitoes-in-Western-Australia">mosquitoes</a> carrying viruses.</p>
<p>The aftermath of natural disasters can be especially devastating with physical damage to peoples’ homes and loss of community infrastructure - often accompanied by extreme financial hardship. For First Nations people, there is a deep spiritual impact as well. Some peoples are put under strain through <a href="https://theconversation.com/effects-of-climate-change-such-as-flooding-makes-existing-disadvantages-for-indigenous-communities-so-much-worse-192090">loss of access</a> to culturally important areas, or evacuation orders separating communities from their respective Countries. </p>
<p>More must be done to ensure the safety of communities whose remote location makes them vulnerable, including First Nations people. Indigenous communities need access to culturally sensitive and appropriate resources, better roads and infrastructure, water management systems, early warning systems and emergency preparedness programs. These communities also need long-term recovery plans made available after disaster events like this. Such as training and skills development, support for business recovery, and access to financial resources and culturally safe mental health support.</p>
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<h2>What we can learn from Indigenous flood knowledge</h2>
<p>Indigenous knowledge from the Kimberley region could provide insight into climate change impacts. Stories and practices passed down through generations of First Nations peoples show how some cultures have addressed changing climates by finding ways to survive extreme weather events and looking after the land.</p>
<p>One example is the story “<a href="https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/19783/1/19783_Goudie_2007.pdf">The Flood Ngawarra-kurlu</a>” where an old man warned of rain coming, which would lead to flooding, and recommended people don’t sleep in creek beds. The people didn’t listen, resulting in them losing their belongings to the flood. This highlights the valuable lesson to governments of not building in flood plains. </p>
<p>Another is the East Kimberley Mulan peoples’ story “<a href="https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/19783/1/19783_Goudie_2007.pdf">The Two Dingoes</a>” which describes visible signs of incoming floods. The colour of the water coming through Sturt Creek and Paruku indicates how long communities will need to relocate to avoid flooding (milky colour water means a few months, red means a few days).</p>
<p>It’s time we include <a href="https://www.undrr.org/indigenous-peoples-and-disaster-risk-reduction-participation-all">Indigenous knowledge</a> when creating disaster risk management strategies and climate change adaptation plans. This is also in line with the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-climate-resilience-and-adaptation-strategy.pdf">reform commitments</a> made by all Australian governments in the National Agreement on Closing the Gap.</p>
<p>In doing this, we can create more effective tools and methods to protect vulnerable people. This could ensure more comprehensive protection, and also have the potential to foster a greater appreciation of Indigenous cultures and experiences. It is through such <a href="https://www.undrr.org/publication/words-action-guidelines-using-traditional-and-indigenous-knowledges-disaster-risk">collaboration</a> we can create a better future for all communities in the face of climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197407/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toni Hay is Director for Indigenous Climate Change providing climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction services.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Courtney-Jay Williams works for Indigenous Climate Change providing climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction services.</span></em></p>The Kimberley region of Western Australia is currently being devastated by flooding. Remote communities need more support with prevention and recovery plans.Toni Hay, Expert in Indigenous climate adaptation, Indigenous KnowledgeCourtney-Jay Williams, Principal Advisor at Indigenous Climate Change, Indigenous KnowledgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1805052022-04-20T19:56:09Z2022-04-20T19:56:09ZNatural disasters cost the nation: we’ve calculated the income tax revenue lost in their wake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456794/original/file-20220407-12-y0tomi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">original</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Understanding the true cost of natural disasters is critical for governments to develop policies to deal with them. </p>
<p>Historically, calculations have been based on toting up <a href="https://www.oecd.org/gov/assessing-the-real-cost-of-disasters-9789264298798-en.htm">insurance claims and government aid</a>. But these don’t account for intangible social costs such as lower mental health and higher substance abuse in the years that follow. Nor do they account for <a href="https://theconversation.com/it-cant-all-be-insured-counting-the-hidden-economic-impact-of-floods-and-bushfires-157882">lower economic output</a> in affected areas. </p>
<p>Our latest research calculates, for the first time, the effect of a natural disaster on income tax revenue. </p>
<p>For this we’ve used data from the 2010-2011 floods that ravaged Brisbane and other towns in south-east Queensland. Our analysis covers about a third of Queensland’s population. </p>
<p>Our results show income tax revenue from the population analysed declined by 5% in the 2010/11 financial year, due to both lower incomes and higher tax-deduction claims. </p>
<p>Even though we can’t extrapolate this result to all disasters – type, location and size matter – our findings clearly show natural disasters have widespread financial effects, and that more frequent and severe natural disasters have clear implications for government revenue.</p>
<h2>Queensland’s floods in context</h2>
<p>The Queensland floods occurred between December 2010 and January 2011. As with recent floods, they were driven by the La Niña weather pattern bringing heavy and persistent rain. This was topped off by severe storms when Cyclone Yasi made landfall in northern Queensland <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/yasi.shtml">in February 2011</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/one-in-1-000-years-old-flood-probabilities-no-longer-hold-water-178524">One in 1,000 years? Old flood probabilities no longer hold water</a>
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<p>All but one of the state’s <a href="https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Operation-Queenslander-implementation-plan.PDF">73 local government areas</a> were declared disaster zones. An estimated 2.5 million of the state’s <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/qld-36">3.4 million</a> population <a href="https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Operation-Queenslander-implementation-plan.PDF">were affected</a>, with 33 people killed.</p>
<p>The total cost calculated by <a href="http://australianbusinessroundtable.com.au/our-research/social-costs-report">Deloitte Access Economics</a> was A$14.1 billion (in 2015 dollars). This comprised A$6.7 billion in tangible costs (such as damage to private properties and infrastructure) and A$7.4 billion in intangibles (such as impacts on health and well-being).</p>
<h2>Brisbane River catchment area</h2>
<p>For our research we focused on the effects on the Brisbane River catchment area in south-east Queensland. This includes Brisbane, the city of Ipswich to Brisbane’s west and smaller townships. </p>
<p>These were flooded in mid-January. Thousands had to evacuate and tens of thousands of homes and businesses were inundated to some degree. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">2010-11 Queensland Floods Map.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Queensland Government</span></span>
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<p>The population of this catchment area in 2010 was about <a href="https://population.com.au/sa4/">1.4 million</a>. About 912,000 were taxpayers. </p>
<p>We examined data from the Australian Taxation Office’s <a href="https://alife-research.app/">Australian Longitudinal Individuals Files</a> (ALife) data set, which contains an anonymous 10% random sample of all Australian tax returns filed over the past three decades. Our sample set comprised 91,208 taxpayers. </p>
<p>Our method, called difference-in-differences, compared the changes in economic conditions of taxpayers living in the Brisbane River catchment area with taxpayers in demographically and economically similar zones in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth.</p>
<h2>Lower income, less tax</h2>
<p>We estimate the income tax revenue from the Brisbane River catchment area was reduced by about 5% in the disaster year. This amounted to about A$400 million less tax revenue. Total income tax revenue from the area in 2009/10 was A$7.7 billion.</p>
<p>The decline was due both to lower incomes and higher tax deductions.</p>
<p>We estimate average incomes were 2.4% lower in the 2010/11 financial year. </p>
<p>Those on lower incomes tended to suffer the bigger percentage losses. For the bottom third of income earners – on an average A$16,200 in the 2009/10 year – average incomes were 4.2% lower in 2010/11. Those in higher-income groups lost about 1.5%.</p>
<p>This is consistent with <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/people/mulubasoglu">previous research</a> (using census data) showing low-income earners, part-time workers and small-business owners tend to lose the most income after disasters. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-increase-inequality-recovery-funding-may-make-things-worse-131643">Natural disasters increase inequality. Recovery funding may make things worse</a>
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<h2>Higher deductions, less tax</h2>
<p>Along with income losses, the value of tax deduction claims in the Brisbane river catchment area increased by about 2% in 2010/11.</p>
<p>These covered such things as deductions on work-related travel, clothing and “other” expenses. They also included more tax-deductible gifts and donations, which is commonly observed after a disaster. </p>
<p>Higher income groups claimed more deductions, reducing tax payable.</p>
<p>Those in the top third of incomes – earning an average of AU$91,600 – paid 3% less tax. Those in the middle third – earning an average of AU$39,000 – paid 8.7% less. There was no discernable change in income tax paid for those in the lowest income group.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium, flooded on Friday Jan 14 2011." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Brisbane’s Suncorp Stadium, flooded on Friday Jan 14 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
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<h2>Financial impacts reach far beyond direct victims</h2>
<p>Our findings add to the growing body of research showing natural disasters have significant socio-economic effects, with income losses compounding inequality.</p>
<p>Our research also underlines that everyone is to some extent affected financially, as every natural disaster reduces the tax revenue collected and increases demands on the the public purse. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-cant-all-be-insured-counting-the-hidden-economic-impact-of-floods-and-bushfires-157882">It can't all be insured: counting the hidden economic impact of floods and bushfires</a>
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<p>Quantifying the full extent of disaster costs is crucial for governments to budget and build sustainable policies investing in disaster mitigation and recovery.</p>
<p>With scientists predicting more frequent and severe natural disasters, we need a full picture of their likely costs, who is going to pay, and how.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180505/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the first time we’ve calculated what effect a natural disaster has on income tax revenue, finding a 5% decline through lower incomes and higher tax deduction claims.Merve Küçük, PhD Candidate, Deakin UniversityMehmet Ulubasoglu, Professor of Economics, Head of the Department of Economics, and Director of the Centre for Disaster Resilience and Recovery, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1784202022-03-04T01:57:53Z2022-03-04T01:57:53ZLike many disasters in Australia, Aboriginal people are over-represented and under-resourced in the NSW floods<p>The flooding crisis that has engulfed much of Australia’s east coast is yet more evidence of the catastrophic impacts of climate change. While all people are forced to confront similar challenges such as forced evacuations, loss of property and damage to businesses, Aboriginal people are once again over-represented in the number of people impacted by disaster. </p>
<p>Northern NSW is home to many Aboriginal people living in large townships such as Lismore, Ballina, Casino and Kempsey. It is also home to a vast array of discrete Aboriginal communities such as Cabbage Tree Island, Box Ridge, Gundurimba, Wardell, Maclean (Hill Crest), and more. </p>
<p>A quick glance at the regions that have been officially <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/disaster-recovery/natural-disaster-declarations">declared a natural disaster zone in NSW</a> reveals that approximately 36,509 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people have been directly impacted by the floods in NSW, or <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2940.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EIndigenous%20Status%7E16">4.2%</a> of those affected by floods.</p>
<p>Focusing on regional areas outside of Sydney, the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people affected by the floods jumps to 6.2%. Compare this with the fact Aboriginal people make up 3.3% of the general population and it becomes clear Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are once more disproportionately affected by disaster.</p>
<p>But these numbers are just one dimension. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are a youthful population, with <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/IQS036">more than half being under 24 years old</a>. This means that of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people affected, most are children and young people.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-big-ideas-how-australia-can-tackle-climate-change-while-restoring-nature-culture-and-communities-172156">5 big ideas: how Australia can tackle climate change while restoring nature, culture and communities</a>
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<h2>Stories of survival and strength</h2>
<p>With such widespread flooding, emergency services and disaster relief organisations have struggled to keep up, and in the midst of the chaos, Aboriginal communities have found themselves isolated and in some cases forgotten. </p>
<p>At Cabbage Tree Island outside of Ballina, the entire community has been inundated. In the midst of the evacuation, elders and families did not want to evacuate because they had nowhere to go. Bundjalung woman Delia Rhodes shared with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/first-nations-communities-isolated-by-rising-flood-waters/13776702">ABC PM Radio</a>: </p>
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<p>You have Elders and families with children sitting around for hours waiting to get accommodation. It’s very frustrating.</p>
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<p>Community members with access to boats took it upon themselves to drop food, baby supplies, and medicine to people who found themselves stranded. </p>
<p>Naomi Moran, General Manager of Indigenous newspaper The Koori Mail shared with <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/watch/2000839747949">NITV</a>:</p>
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<p>You know what Blackfullas are like, if it happens to one of us, it happens to all of us. The outpouring of offers to support our communities. You know, taking calls from Sydney mob, from Melbourne mob, saying “how can we help?”</p>
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<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1498864745533030404"}"></div></p>
<p>In Dubbo, Bundjalung woman Noelle King is organising donations and relief for families in Lismore and surrounding communities, she said to me:</p>
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<p>I have lots of family in Lismore who have lost everything but are so grateful they all made it out to safety in time. I have family in Corakai, on the mission who were isolated with no access to supplies and the same seeing Gundurimba and Cabbo going under […] So I’ve reached out to the community of Dubbo and donations have flowed in of clothes, household items, food and other supplies. We will be organising a truck next week and heading over to help where we can.</p>
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<p>Sadly, these stories of Aboriginal communities being left behind with little support, or none at all, are all too common. I have written about similar experiences during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/strength-from-perpetual-grief-how-aboriginal-people-experience-the-bushfire-crisis-129448">2019-20 bushfires</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-covid-19-crisis-in-western-nsw-aboriginal-communities-is-a-nightmare-realised-166093">COVID-19 pandemic</a> in Aboriginal communities. </p>
<p>There are also questions about when or even if communities can return to their home communities, as Dyonne Anderson, Principle of Cabbage Tree Island public school shared with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/03/fears-for-indigenous-community-of-nsw-island-as-anger-rises-about-government-response">The Guardian</a>:</p>
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<p>We may not return for many months. </p>
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<p>These disasters have exposed the consequences of a lack of planning and preparation in and with Aboriginal communities. They have also shown how entrenched inequality produces further vulnerabilities in times of crisis. The same consequences are now being felt in northern NSW.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-covid-19-crisis-in-western-nsw-aboriginal-communities-is-a-nightmare-realised-166093">The COVID-19 crisis in western NSW Aboriginal communities is a nightmare realised</a>
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<h2>How can First Nations communities be better supported during climate change?</h2>
<p>Disasters such as this have always been a common feature in Australia, but as more and more emissions are pumped into the atmosphere, the impacts of climate change mean the scale and severity of these disasters will continue to increase.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities are already bearing the brunt of these disasters. A number of things need to happen now, before climate impacts worsen.</p>
<p>It’s vitally important Aboriginal people throughout flood impacted areas are provided with as much community and government support as they require to return home and recover what has been lost. Aboriginal community members have organised a number of crowdfunding campaigns to support Aboriginal people in flood-affected areas. </p>
<p>Two of note include the <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/bundjalung-community-flood-relief?qid=282d6b0445aebe6cbe3d7b6dc64f3e2c">Bundjalung community flood relief</a> and <a href="https://chuffed.org/project/support-aboriginal-families-of-lismore">Support Aboriginal families of Lismore</a>.</p>
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<p>It is also time to look beyond individual disasters and develop an integrated response that is led by and centres Indigenous peoples. I suggest this can be done in two ways.</p>
<p>Firstly, we need a national Indigenous disaster resilience framework. <a href="https://caepr.cass.anu.edu.au/events/aboriginal-community-governance-black-summer-bushfires">My research</a> has uncovered how Indigenous peoples have been made absent in national disaster resilience policies in the past. Without a framework that focuses on our communities, including the distinct impacts of disasters on our peoples, culture and heritage, and the unique legal and governing arrangements within our communities, future policies and responses will continue to fall short.</p>
<p>Second, there is an urgent need to develop and resource an Indigenous climate resilience and adaptation strategy. The recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability</a>, recognises the specific challenges for Indigenous peoples in a changing climate. While closer to home Future Earth Australia, a peak expert group based at the Australian Academy of Science, is developing a <a href="https://www.futureearth.org.au/news/our-most-vulnerable-risk-being-left-behind-australia-adapts-climate-change">National Strategy for Just Adaptation</a>. </p>
<p>But even these strategies and reports are incapable of capturing and communicating our voices, experiences, and ambitions if they are not Indigenous-led and owned.</p>
<p>What these floods have shown, as the bushfires and COVID-19 have shown before, is the indomitable strength of Aboriginal people. </p>
<p>Perhaps it is fitting the national NAIDOC theme for 2022 is “<a href="https://www.naidoc.org.au/get-involved/2022-theme">Get Up! Stand Up! Show Up!</a>” - because that is exactly what we continue to do for our people in times of disaster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178420/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I thank Dr Francis Markham for his contributions in the development of this article. </span></em></p>Australia’s east coast flooding is forcing people to confront challenges such as evacuations and loss of property. However, Aboriginal people are being left to find their own way through this crisis.Bhiamie Williamson, Research Associate & PhD Candidate, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1781432022-03-02T19:09:36Z2022-03-02T19:09:36ZAfter the floods comes underinsurance: we need a better plan<p>The floods affecting Australia’s eastern seaboard are a “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/flood-fears-for-city-fringe-as-savage-storm-cell-heads-toward-sydney-20220301-p5a0sg.html">1 in 1,000-year event</a>”, according to New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet. But that’s not what science, or the insurance industry, suggests.</p>
<p>Throughout Australia in areas prone to fires, cyclones and floods, home owners and businesses are facing escalating insurance costs as the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase with the warming climate.</p>
<p>Premiums have risen sharply over the past decade as insurers count the cost of insurance claims and factor in future risks. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">latest report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published this week, predicts global warming of 1.5°C will lead to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/mass-starvation-extinctions-disasters-the-new-ipcc-reports-grim-predictions-and-why-adaptation-efforts-are-falling-behind-176693">fourfold increase</a> in natural disasters.</p>
<p>Rising insurance premiums are creating a crisis of underinsurance in Australia.</p>
<p>In 2017 the federal government tasked the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to investigate insurance affordability in northern Australia, where destructive storms and floods are most common. The commission delivered its <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/focus-areas/inquiries-finalised/northern-australia-insurance-inquiry/final-report">final report</a> in 2020. It found the average cost of home and contents insurance in northern Australia was almost double the rest of Australia – $2,500 compared with $1,400. The rate of non-insurance was almost double – 20% compared with 11%.</p>
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<p><strong>Average premiums for combined home and contents insurance, 2018–19</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449357/original/file-20220302-25-hd3gv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Average premiums for combined home and contents insurance in Australia, 2018–19" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449357/original/file-20220302-25-hd3gv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449357/original/file-20220302-25-hd3gv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449357/original/file-20220302-25-hd3gv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449357/original/file-20220302-25-hd3gv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449357/original/file-20220302-25-hd3gv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449357/original/file-20220302-25-hd3gv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449357/original/file-20220302-25-hd3gv4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ACCC analysis of data obtained from insurers.</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>While the areas now experiencing their worst flooding in recorded history aren’t part of the riskiest areas identified by the insurance inquiry, the dynamics are the same. </p>
<p>Those not insured or underinsured will be financially devastated. Insurance premiums will rise. As a result, more people will underinsure or drop their insurance completely, compounding the social disaster that will come with the next natural disaster. </p>
<p>So, what do about it?</p>
<h2>Tackling insurance affordability</h2>
<p>There are two main ways to reduce insurance premiums. </p>
<p>One is to reduce global warming. Obviously this is not something Australia can achieve on its own, but it can be part of the solution. </p>
<p>The other is to reduce the damage caused by extreme events, by constructing more disaster-resistant buildings, or not rebuilding in high-risk areas. </p>
<p>The federal government, however, has put most of its eggs in a different basket, with a plan to subsidise to insurance premiums in northern Australia.</p>
<p>This won’t do much for those affected by the current floods. It won’t even do much to solve the insurance crisis in northern Australia. </p>
<h2>The reinsurance pool, a blunt tool</h2>
<p>In the 2021 budget the federal government committed A$10 billion to a <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/morrison-government-deliver-reduced-premiums-through-reinsurance-pool">cyclone and flood damage reinsurance pool</a>, “to ensure Australians in cyclone-prone areas have access to affordable insurance”. The legislation to establish this pool is <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2022B00003">now before parliament</a>. </p>
<p>The ostensible rationale is that the government can drive down insurance costs for consumers by stepping in and acting as wholesaler in the reinsurance market, in which insurers insure themselves against the risk of crippling insurance payouts. </p>
<p>The idea is that discounted reinsurance will lead insurers to lower their premiums. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-national-insurance-crisis-looms-the-morrison-governments-10-billion-pool-plan-wont-fix-it-163796">A national insurance crisis looms. The Morrison government's $10 billion 'pool' plan won't fix it</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There is no guarantee, however, that insurers will pass on their cheaper costs to customers. This means the benefits of the pool are unclear. </p>
<p>So are its costs. Effectively, the government is shifting risk from insurers to itself, subsidising insurance premiums for those in some parts the country from the public purse.</p>
<p>The ACCC inquiry gave considerable attention to the idea of a reinsurance pool. While acknowledging there could be some benefits, it concluded the risks outweigh the rewards:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We do not consider that a reinsurance pool is necessary to address availability issues in northern Australia. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Targeting and mitigating</h2>
<p>Above and beyond the aforementioned problems, there are two telling failures of the reinsurance pool plan.</p>
<p>First, subsidising insurance companies doesn’t target help to those who need it most: low-income households. </p>
<p>There is a growing body of research showing that natural disasters, and the ways governments respond to them, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/underinsurance-is-entrenching-poverty-as-the-vulnerable-are-hit-hardest-by-disasters-152083">contributing to greater inequality</a>. </p>
<p>As the South Australian Council of Social Service makes clear in a <a href="https://www.sacoss.org.au/protecting-basics-insurance-report">report published this week</a>, improving insurance access for people on low incomes at risk from natural disaster requires targeted support, such as promoting non-profit “mutual” insurance schemes.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-increase-inequality-recovery-funding-may-make-things-worse-131643">Natural disasters increase inequality. Recovery funding may make things worse</a>
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<p>Second, only mitigation can bring the overall cost of natural disasters down. Ways to do this include public works (building levees, upgrading stormwater systems, conducting planned burns) and improving buildings (reinforcing garage doors, shuttering windows, managing vegetation around homes, and so on). </p>
<p>The ACCC’s insurance report identifies a range of ways mitigation strategies can be tied into insurance pricing. Yet none of these has been incorporated into the Morrison government’s response to the insurance crisis. </p>
<p>There is little support for the reinsurance pool outside of the federal government. Neither the ACCC, the insurance industry nor community sector advocacy organisations support reinsurance as a meaningful solution. </p>
<h2>A reinsurance pool for the whole of Australia?</h2>
<p>For the areas of NSW and Queensland now flooded, as well as the rest of the country outside the ambit of the reinsurance pool, the relentless rise in insurance costs will continue, tipping ever more homes out of the insurance safety net. </p>
<p>We must find better solutions to the insurance crisis than what is being offered to northern Australia. A reinsurance pool cannot be a national solution because it isn’t the solution for northern Australia.</p>
<p>There are no cheap and easy solutions, but the terrain is clearly mapped out across an array of inquiries and reports into insurance and climate vulnerability. More than a blanket subsidy for the insurance industry, the time has come for climate vulnerability to be taken seriously by the federal government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antonia Settle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Natural disasters are driving up insurance costs. The Australian government’s plan to drive them down won’t help much.Antonia Settle, Academic (McKenzie Postdoctoral Research Fellow), The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1731362022-01-05T16:02:15Z2022-01-05T16:02:15ZInsurance isn’t enough: Governments need to do better on natural disaster resilience<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439487/original/file-20220105-15-1n9mceh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3807&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman and children who were stranded by high water due to flooding are rescued by a volunteer operating a boat in Abbotsford, B.C., in November 2021. The Insurance Institute of Canada forecasts that annual insured losses from natural disasters could increase to $5 billion within the next 10 years.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck </span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/insurance-isn-t-enough--governments-need-to-do-better-on-natural-disaster-resilience" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The massive floods in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-an-atmospheric-river-drenched-british-columbia-and-led-to-floods-and-mudslides-172021">British Columbia</a> in November 2021 demonstrated the devastation that natural disasters can cause in Canada. Prior to 2010, it was rare for annual insured losses from natural disasters in Canada to exceed $1 billion, but now insured losses of $3 billion are not uncommon. </p>
<p>Canada is expected to become wetter, stormier, warmer and to experience more severe connective storms and wildfires. The Insurance Institute of Canada forecasts that annual insured losses <a href="https://www.insuranceinstitute.ca/en/resources/insights-research/Climate-risks-report">could increase to $5 billion</a> within the next 10 years.</p>
<p>Private insurance plays an essential role in supporting the resiliency of communities by providing financial compensation for losses that aid in recovery. <a href="https://www.munichre.com/topics-online/en/climate-change-and-natural-disasters/resilience/resilience-overcoming-natural-disasters.html">Insurance company Munich Re</a> notes that, after accounting for per capita income, countries with greater insurance coverage are more resilient to natural disasters.</p>
<p>However, insurance works best protecting households and communities against idiosyncratic low-frequency, high-severity events. As extreme weather events become more common, relying on insurance alone to protect Canadians against severe weather is not sustainable. It is critical that an integrated and holistic approach to mitigate and manage losses from natural disasters is developed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.iclr.org/municipality/">Communities</a> and <a href="https://www.iclr.org/homeowner/">property owners</a> need to be partners in reducing losses by undertaking mitigation activities to reduce the severity of wind, water and wildfire events. However, the largest role falls upon all levels of government to protect Canadians against the impact of catastrophic weather events.</p>
<h2>Land-use planning and mitigation</h2>
<p>To create more resilient communities, governments need to invest in mitigation, adaptation and risk-prevention activities. Climate change, expanded development and population growth have resulted in the need for updated risk assessments, especially up-to-date flood maps. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of men, all wearing face masks, examine a large map on a table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438730/original/file-20211221-21-1bap87p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438730/original/file-20211221-21-1bap87p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438730/original/file-20211221-21-1bap87p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438730/original/file-20211221-21-1bap87p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438730/original/file-20211221-21-1bap87p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438730/original/file-20211221-21-1bap87p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438730/original/file-20211221-21-1bap87p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks over maps as he surveys the damage left behind from the flood waters in Abbotsford, B.C. in November 2021. Governments need to invest in risk-prevention activities to create communities that are more resilient to natural disasters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In high-risk areas, future development must be prohibited, and governments should buy out existing properties. <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-tools-to-map-%20flood-risk-will-help-bring-disaster-planning-up-to-date-169374">Better flood maps</a> will enable governments to purchase high-risk properties before a devastating flood, and the land could be transformed to help minimize flooding in adjacent areas.</p>
<p>To withstand future extreme weather events, building codes and standards need to be revised. Whether it’s new construction of buildings or infrastructure, retrofitting property or repairing property after a loss, building codes need to be forward-looking. </p>
<h2>Insurance and disaster financial assistance</h2>
<p>After an extreme weather event, a province or territory may declare the event to be eligible for disaster assistance, with funding available from the province via <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/mrgnc-mngmnt/rcvr-dsstrs/dsstr-fnncl-ssstnc-rrngmnts/index-en.aspx">Disaster Financial Assistance (DFA)</a>. DFA is available to property owners and communities for losses that are not covered by insurance companies — DFA does not pay for losses for which insurance is “reasonably and readily” available.</p>
<p>Prior to the flooding events in both Calgary and Toronto in 2013, Canadian homeowners could not buy insurance for overland water damage, but now <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4254206/2013-calgary-flood-insurance-changes/">most insurers offer some level of flood insurance</a>, except in very high-risk areas. </p>
<p>This introduces inequity among homeowners — those who live in the highest risk areas cannot purchase insurance and therefore can receive DFA after a loss, but those living in moderate to high-risk areas where insurance is “reasonably and readily” available may not be able to afford coverage and therefore not be eligible to receive DFA.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pair of legs sticking out of a car sitting in the middle of a flooded highway" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438746/original/file-20211221-23072-esfg65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438746/original/file-20211221-23072-esfg65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438746/original/file-20211221-23072-esfg65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438746/original/file-20211221-23072-esfg65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438746/original/file-20211221-23072-esfg65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438746/original/file-20211221-23072-esfg65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438746/original/file-20211221-23072-esfg65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A woman gets back into her flooded car on Lakeshore Boulevard, Toronto in July 2013. The floods from that year resulted in insurance companies offering overland flood insurance, in addition to standard sewer backup policies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS</span></span>
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<p>Because the term “reasonably and readily” is not well-defined, ambiguity exists regarding who can receive DFA and who cannot. If the limitations around DFA are not fully understood by property owners, or if governments do not clearly define “reasonably and readily,” the incentive to purchase flood insurance is reduced. </p>
<p>Property owners need information <a href="https://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/insurance/brokers-need-know-advising-clients-%20overland-flood-coverage-1004132302/">regarding the value of purchasing flood insurance</a> and insurers can provide important information about how to mitigate losses from flooding. </p>
<p>Furthermore, owners need to be counselled very carefully on the consequences of not purchasing flood coverage, and the provincial and territorial governments need to remain committed to not pay DFA for losses that could have been insured.</p>
<h2>Private-public partnerships</h2>
<p>The private insurance market, which has an important role to play in financing losses from natural disasters, has its limitations. The risks associated with some properties exceed the appetite of insurers and some perils have the potential to cause losses too large for the Canadian insurance market to cover. </p>
<p>To achieve sustainable flood insurance coverage, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/gov/infrastructure-governance/public-private-partnerships/">a public-private partnership</a> is needed, whereby the government’s role is to support an <a href="https://www.irmi.com/term/insurance-definitions/pool">insurance risk-sharing pool</a> for high-risk properties that, otherwise, would not be able to purchase coverage. This will help reduce the reliance on DFA and provide information to homeowners regarding the risk they face.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man walking through knee-high water. In the background, a large truck and the front of a building are submerged in the water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438726/original/file-20211221-19-1kp7uhk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=85%2C511%2C2761%2C1446&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438726/original/file-20211221-19-1kp7uhk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438726/original/file-20211221-19-1kp7uhk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438726/original/file-20211221-19-1kp7uhk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438726/original/file-20211221-19-1kp7uhk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438726/original/file-20211221-19-1kp7uhk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438726/original/file-20211221-19-1kp7uhk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man walks through rising flood waters crossing into Canada from the United States in Abbotsford, B.C in November 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Governments also have an important role in providing a safety net for very large losses. <a href="https://www.pacicc.ca/">The industry guaranty fund, the Property and Casualty Insurance Compensation Corporation,</a> has determined that a catastrophic loss exceeding $35 billion in insured losses would <a href="https://www.pacicc.ca/publication/why-insurers-fail/">overwhelm the Canadian insurance industry</a> and require government intervention. Such intervention could take the form of providing a layer of insurance coverage for catastrophic losses, or a liquidity or solvency backstop. </p>
<p>Ultimately, insurance and adaptation will not solve the problem of severe weather losses. We need to commit to sincere and strong action on climate change to reduce the frequency and severity of weather events. Some of the tools discussed here — insurance, strengthening building codes, effective mitigation and creating public private partnerships — can be leveraged to build a more resilient society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne E. Kleffner receives funding from SSHRC, Alberta Finance. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary Kelly receives funding from SSHRC and is a director at Heartland Farm Mutual Insurance Company.</span></em></p>Although insurance is important in natural disaster recovery, government and property owners also play an important role in protecting Canadians against the impact of catastrophic weather events.Anne E. Kleffner, Professor, Risk Management and Insurance, University of CalgaryMary Kelly, Chair in Insurance and Professor, Finance, Wilfrid Laurier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1714232021-11-08T14:56:41Z2021-11-08T14:56:41ZIf we don’t learn from past climate disasters, they will claim more lives in the future<p>A central focus of discussions at the ongoing UN climate summit <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a> in Glasgow is how to adapt to a warming world, including how to prevent climate hazards from becoming disasters.</p>
<p>A hazard turns into a disaster when it begins causing harm to human lives. That’s why, to prevent climate-related disasters, we must anticipate and adapt to future hazards to keep people safe. This will require enormous amounts of money and years of careful planning – as well as, crucially, learning from past mistakes.</p>
<p>This July, in the German states of Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia, <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-rainfall-which-led-to-severe-flooding-in-western-europe-made-more-likely-by-climate-change/">devastating floods</a> caused by torrential rains killed more than 180 people and destroyed hundreds of homes and buildings. Houses were ripped from their foundations with their occupants still inside. Trees and caravans were tossed in raging flood waters. Some rivers rose nine metres (twice the height of a double-decker bus) above their usual levels. </p>
<p>One woman, trapped on the first floor of her home with her two young children before later being rescued, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00117h1/panorama-wild-weather-our-world-under-threat">was told</a> by her daughter: “I know we’ll die. But please don’t be sad. We will die together.” Months later, teams of unpaid volunteers continue to drain waterlogged cellars, bulldoze wreckage, and feed families who are still homeless. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Debris piled by a road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Cleaning efforts take place after the July floods in Erftstadt-Blessem, Germany.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2021-07_Blessem_after_flood_01.jpg">Achim Raschka/Wikimedia</a></span>
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<p>In the immediate aftermath of the floods, it was clear that something had gone badly wrong for one of the world’s richest countries to experience this scale of death and destruction. Some people – <a href="https://theconversation.com/europes-catastrophic-flooding-was-forecast-well-in-advance-what-went-so-wrong-164818">the authors included</a> – were quick to criticise apparent failures in local and national flood preparedness systems.</p>
<p>These systems are essentially long, complex chains of decision-making that involve weather forecasters, politicians and emergency services. In North Rhine-Westphalia, a <a href="https://www.landtag.nrw.de/home/aktuelles/meldungsarchiv/meldungen-berichte-und-informati/meldungen-und-berichte/2021/10/0810konstituierung-pua-v.html">parliamentary inquiry</a> was established in October to understand where this chain broke down during the summer floods, and who should be held accountable. One of us has been asked to give evidence to this inquiry, providing perspective on what went wrong and on how to improve preparation for future crises.</p>
<h2>Luxembourg floods</h2>
<p>As Germany flooded, so did the small landlocked country of Luxembourg, bordered by Germany to the east. Here, <a href="https://floodlist.com/europe/luxembourg-floods-july-2021">floods caused</a> more than 100 evacuations and <a href="https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20211020/STORY/912345334/Luxembourg-insurers-suffer-nearly-$150-million-loss-from-floods">financial losses</a> of at least £111m.</p>
<p>The floods seemed to take the country by surprise. Even though the <a href="https://emergency.copernicus.eu/">Copernicus Emergency Management Service</a>’s European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) was indicating a high chance of extreme flooding in the affected area <a href="https://www.efas.eu/en/news/faq-efas-and-recent-flood-events">several days</a> in advance, <a href="https://theconversation.com/report-from-europes-flood-zone-researcher-calls-out-early-warning-system-gridlock-amid-shocking-loss-of-life-164648">some people</a> said they received no warning of the impending rise in water levels.</p>
<p>What’s more, a flagship emergency warning app meant to provide early warnings to the Luxembourg population had only been downloaded by 15,000 people out of a population of 640,000 – and crashed on the day of the flood. The servers hosting Luxembourg’s National Meteorology Service website also crashed following the floods, displaying only an error message to citizens desperate for information.</p>
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<img alt="Water rises up the side of a row of houses" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Floods in Luxembourg cost the country over a hundred million pounds in damage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hesperange_(51314741080).jpg">Tristan Schmurr/Flickr</a></span>
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<p>Many people were unaware that they were even at risk. Later, flood victims complained that they had no idea they lived in a flood zone, did not know what to do to keep themselves safe when the water came into their houses, and had no idea where to find information about the risks they faced. </p>
<p>This catalogue of failures may not have been the fault of any individual agencies or individuals, but overall it is likely to have led to the material and emotional toll of the disaster being much worse than if all systems had been operational. Yet Luxembourg authorities seem unwilling to learn from this situation.</p>
<p>Luxembourg’s prime minister, Xavier Bettel, said in parliament that “no one could have predicted the extent of the flooding” as it unfolded: a <a href="https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/1804527.html">statement</a> that is factually incorrect, since EFAS predicted it. He then went on to insist that an external inquiry into the flood response was <a href="https://www.rtl.lu/news/national/a/1804260.html">not necessary</a>, since individual agencies had already reviewed their own performance.</p>
<p>This is a poor decision if Luxembourg wants to prepare itself better for future floods: particularly given evidence that, in this case, the lack of early warning and adequate preventative measures were the main factors causing the disaster to unfold in the way it did.</p>
<h2>Learning from the past</h2>
<p>After the UK suffered from severe and costly flooding from one of the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-40548635">wettest summers</a> on record in 2007, the subsequent <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20100807034701/http:/archive.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/pittreview/_/media/assets/www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/flooding_review/pitt_review_full%20pdf.pdf">review</a> of the country’s response by planning expert <a href="https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Pitt_Review_Lessons_learned_from_the_2007_floods">Sir Michael Pitt</a> identified key focus areas to help the UK deal more effectively with flooding in the future.</p>
<p>The review provided the start of a transformational change in flood risk management across the UK. This included the creation of the <a href="http://www.ffc-environment-agency.metoffice.gov.uk/">Flood Forecasting Centre</a> in April 2009 – a collaboration between the Environment Agency and the Met Office that combines weather and flooding expertise to give early warnings of extreme weather events. The centre has provided crisis management support during all major floods since that time: including flooding from two major storms, <a href="http://www.ffc-environment-agency.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/FFC-Annual-Review-2019-20.pdf">Ciara and Dennis</a>, in February 2020.</p>
<p>Now, the whole world is watching Glasgow to see how leaders respond to the climate crisis. While we decide how to adapt to the increasing climate risks that lie ahead, our first job should be to learn from what communities across the world have already experienced.</p>
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<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Cloke advises the Environment Agency, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, local and national governments and humanitarian agencies on the forecasting and warning of natural hazards. She is a Council member of the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council, a fellow of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, a fellow of the Centre for Natural Hazards & Disaster Science in Sweden and is also affiliated to Uppsala University in Sweden. Her research is funded by the UKRI Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council, the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council and the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Da Costa works for University of Reading. </span></em></p>Failures to respond adequately to the floods that hit Germany and Luxembourg in July 2021 must teach us how to prepare for future climate disasters.Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology, University of ReadingJeff Da Costa, PhD Researcher in Hydrometeorology, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1658722021-08-16T19:52:37Z2021-08-16T19:52:37ZForget massive seawalls, coastal wetlands offer the best storm protection money can buy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416266/original/file-20210816-13-1mc83jx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Coastal communities around the world are facing increasing threats from tropical cyclones. Climate change is causing rising sea levels and bigger, more frequent storms. </p>
<p>Many coastal communities are pondering what to do. Should they build massive seawalls in a bid to protect existing infrastructure? Do they give up on their current coastal locations and retreat inland? Or is there another way?</p>
<p>In the US, the US Army Corps of Engineers has proposed building a 20-foot high <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/02/us/miami-fl-seawall-hurricanes.html?searchResultPosition=4">giant seawall</a> to protect Miami, the third most populous metropolis on the US east coast. The US$6 billion proposal is tentative and at least five years off, but sure to be among many proposals in the coming years to protect coastal communities from storms.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-20-foot-sea-wall-wont-save-miami-how-living-structures-can-help-protect-the-coast-and-keep-the-paradise-vibe-165076">A 20-foot sea wall won’t save Miami – how living structures can help protect the coast and keep the paradise vibe</a>
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<p>But seawalls are expensive to build, require constant maintenance and provide limited protection. </p>
<p>Consider China, which already has a huge number of seawalls built for storm protection. A <a href="http://www.robertcostanza.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019_J_Liu-et-al.-China-storm-protection-EcoServ.pdf">2019 study</a> analysed the impact of 127 storms on China between 1989 and 2016. </p>
<p>Coastal wetlands were far more cost effective in preventing storm damages. They also provided many other ecosystem services that seawalls do not.</p>
<h2>How wetlands reduce storm effects</h2>
<p>Coastal wetlands reduce the damaging effects of tropical cyclones on coastal communities by absorbing storm energy in ways that neither solid land nor open water can. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.robertcostanza.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/2008_J_Costanza_HurricaneProtection.pdf">mechanisms involved</a> include decreasing the area of open water (fetch) for wind to form waves, increasing drag on water motion and hence the amplitude of a storm surge, reducing direct wind effects on the water surface, and directly absorbing wave energy.</p>
<p>Wetland vegetation contributes by decreasing surges and waves and maintaining shallow water depths that have the same effect. Wetlands also reduce flood damages by absorbing flood waters caused by rain and moderating their effects on built-up areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Coastal wetlands can absorb storm energy in ways neither solid land nor open water can." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416272/original/file-20210816-6624-12mrdl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Coastal wetlands can absorb storm energy in ways neither solid land nor open water can.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>In 2008 I and colleagues estimated coastal wetlands in the US provided storm protection services worth US$23 billion a year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021001072">Our new study</a> estimates the global value of coastal wetlands to storm protection services is US$450 billion a year (calculated at 2015 value) with 4,600 lives saved annually. </p>
<p>To make this calculation, we used the records of more than 1,000 tropical cyclones since 1902 that caused property damage and/or human casualties in 71 countries. Our study took advantage of improved storm tracking, better global land-use mapping and damage-assessment databases, along with improved computational capabilities to model the relationships between coastal wetlands and avoided damages and deaths from tropical cyclones.</p>
<p>The 40 million hectares of coastal wetlands in storm-prone areas provided an average of US$11,000 per hectare a year in avoided storm damages.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rising-seas-allow-coastal-wetlands-to-store-more-carbon-113020">Rising seas allow coastal wetlands to store more carbon</a>
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<h2>Pacific nations benefit most</h2>
<p>The degree to which coastal wetlands provide storm protection varies between countries (and within countries). Key factors are storm probability, amount of built infrastructure in storm-prone areas, if wetlands are in storm-prone areas, and coastal conditions. </p>
<p>The top five countries in terms of annual avoided damages (all in 2015 US dollar values) are the United States (US$200 billion), China (US$157 billion), the Philippines (US$47 billion), Japan (US$24 billion) and Mexico (US$15 billion). </p>
<p>In terms of lives saved annually, the top five are: China (1,309); the Philippines (976); the United States (469)l India (414); and Bangladesh (360).</p>
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<img alt="Floodwaters inundate Manila suburbs in November 2020 following Typhoon Vamco." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416276/original/file-20210816-6629-v6024o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Floodwaters inundate Manila suburbs in November 2020 following Typhoon Vamco.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ace Morandante/Malacanang Presidential Photographers Division/AP</span></span>
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<h2>Other ecosystem services</h2>
<p>Coastal wetlands also provide other valuable ecosystem services. They provide nursery habitat for many commercially important marine species, recreational opportunities, carbon sequestration, management of sediment and nutrient run-off, and many other valuable services. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378014000685">2014</a> I and colleagues estimated the value of other ecosystem services provided by wetlands (over and above storm protection) at about $US 135,000 a hectare a year.</p>
<p>But land-use changes, including the loss of coastal wetlands, has been eroding both services. Since 1900 the world has <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/mf/mf14173">lost up to 70%</a> of its wetlands (Davidson, 2014). </p>
<p>Preserving and restoring coastal wetlands is a very cost-effective strategy for society, and can significantly <a href="http://www.idakub.com/academics/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/2017_J_Kubiszewski_ESscenarios.pdf">increase well-being</a> for humans and the rest of nature.</p>
<p>With the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and other extreme weather events projected to further increase, the value of coastal wetlands will increase in the future. This justifies investing much more in their conservation and restoration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Costanza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As weather becomes more extreme, the value of coastal wetlands is increasing.Robert Costanza, Professor and VC's Chair, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1582792021-06-03T12:24:52Z2021-06-03T12:24:52ZHurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, floods – whatever your local risk, here’s how to be more weather-ready<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403801/original/file-20210601-17-qeke72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C0%2C5661%2C3728&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mark Poindexter puts a tarp on the damaged roof of his home in Gulf Breeze, Louisiana, on Aug. 29, 2020, in the aftermath of Hurricane Laura.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TropicalWeather/8c4502b0d6ec4dee9d34c9bd277de0ef/photo">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Summer in the U.S. means that it’s time to be ready for <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-another-active-atlantic-hurricane-season">hurricanes</a> and <a href="https://thedataface.com/2018/11/public-health/wildfires-map">wildfires</a>. The incidence of weather and climate disasters is <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2020-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-historical">increasing in the U.S.</a>, a trend due partly to <a href="https://theconversation.com/western-fires-are-burning-higher-in-the-mountains-at-unprecedented-rates-in-a-clear-sign-of-climate-change-159699">climate change</a> but also to human decisions. </p>
<p>Since the 1950s, population growth has <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13071/w13071.pdf">increased significantly in Sun Belt states</a>. Millions of people have moved to coastlines, from Texas to the Carolinas, putting more lives and property in harm’s way during hurricanes. Florida, the hurricane capital of the United States, now is the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/en/states">third-most-populous state in the nation</a>.</p>
<p>Recognizing that Americans are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="https://www.weather.gov/wrn/">Weather-Ready Nation initiative</a> is helping communities plan for events like violent tornadoes, destructive hurricanes and widespread flooding. As a <a href="https://www.weather.gov/people/salna-erik">meteorologist and supporter of this effort</a>, I believe that everyone should understand what kinds of severe weather hazards could affect their family and home and be ready for them. Here are some ways to do it.</p>
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<h2>What to do instead of taping windows</h2>
<p>For Atlantic and Gulf coast residents, hurricane preparedness has to be a way of life. It means knowing whether you live in a <a href="https://flash.org/pdf/2020_Hurricane_Evacuation_Zones.pdf">designated evacuation zone</a>. That’s key in the event of storm surge – when a hurricane pushes seawater up onto local beaches and inland areas. Readiness also means having a family and business disaster plan that details preparations, and maintaining a <a href="https://dem.fiu.edu/emergencies/emergency-kit/index.html">hurricane survival kit</a>. </p>
<p>Another priority is knowing how to protect your home and business from damaging winds. Conducting a home insurance review with your agent and scheduling a <a href="https://www.homeinspector.org/">wind mitigation inspection</a> will identify what you can do to strengthen and protect vulnerable parts of the building such as windows, entry doors, garage doors and roofs. </p>
<p>Adding metal hurricane shutters or hurricane-resistant windows can help. So can retrofitting the attic or eaves with <a href="https://apps.floridadisaster.org/hrg/content/walls/wood_frame_rtw_conn.asp">metal hurricane straps</a>, which connect the rafters to the walls to prevent the roof from blowing off.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The owner of a Mexico Beach, Florida, house that survived Hurricane Michael, a Category 5 storm in 2018, describes his home’s stormproofing features.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here’s one step to skip: Putting tape onto windows for wind protection from a hurricane. Tape does nothing to reduce wind damage, so this is a waste of time. </p>
<p>Consumers also need to rethink how they shop for a new home in storm-prone areas. It’s OK to want granite countertops, walk-in closets and a safe neighborhood near schools and parks. But buyers should also consider how well a house is built, its age, the materials it contains, the shape and condition of the roof, and building code requirements at the time it was constructed. </p>
<p>And they should ask whether the house is located in a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps">flood-prone area</a>, has wind-resistant features or has been <a href="https://apps.floridadisaster.org/hrg/">retrofitted against hurricanes</a>. Even residents who don’t live in a zone where it is required should consider taking out flood insurance.</p>
<h2>Storm-testing buildings</h2>
<p>Florida International University’s <a href="https://www.ihrc.fiu.edu/">International Hurricane Research Center</a>, which is part of our <a href="https://eei.fiu.edu/">Extreme Events Institute</a>, was designated NOAA’s first Weather-Ready Nation ambassador in South Florida. Our <a href="https://fiu.designsafe-ci.org/">Wall of Wind</a> facility is capable of creating Category 5 hurricane conditions – winds with speeds over 157 mph. </p>
<p>Like crash testing for vehicles, wind testing can help ensure that structures, traffic signals and building components can hold up under stress. The Wall of Wind is part of the National Science Foundation’s <a href="https://www.designsafe-ci.org/about/">Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure program</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A Wall of Wind demonstration shows how inexpensive building reinforcements can prevent costly hurricane damage.</span></figcaption>
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<p>For educational outreach, we host the yearly <a href="https://news.fiu.edu/2021/virtual-wall-of-wind-challenge-inspires-high-school-students-to-tackle-real-world-problems?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=FIU%20Newsletter">Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge</a>, in which teams of local high school students develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and solutions. And the Extreme Events Institute uses a <a href="https://eei.fiu.edu/equation/the-equation/">risk equation</a> to help the public understand and support measures to confront the “risk drivers” that lead to major losses.</p>
<p>For more about hurricane mitigation and preparedness, watch our 12-episode “<a href="https://mods.org/eyeofthestorm/">Eye of the Storm</a>” video series, or visit our <a href="https://huracanes.fiu.edu/">Spanish-language hurricane website</a>.</p>
<h2>Wildfires, tornadoes and floods</h2>
<p>NOAA’s <a href="https://www.weather.gov/">National Weather Service</a> is also investing in new forecasting tools and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/news/192203-strategic-plan">linking its forecasts to lifesaving decisions</a> made in every state and county. The goal is to provide timely forecasts that emergency managers, first responders, government officials, businesses and the public can act on.</p>
<p>Across the United States, Weather-Ready Nation ambassadors are preparing for many types of extreme weather events. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://theconversation.com/another-dangerous-fire-season-is-looming-in-the-western-u-s-and-the-drought-stricken-region-is-headed-for-a-water-crisis-160848">extreme wildfire season</a> is expected in many Western states. The Oregon Office of Emergency Management is asking residents to <a href="https://phys.org/news/2021-05-good-summer-wildfire-season.html">have a bag packed and to prepare an evacuation plan</a>. </p>
<p>Flooding can occur almost anywhere across the country, and hazards can develop quickly. Flooded roadways can be deadly, so take heed of NOAA’s “Turn Around Don’t Drown” message and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-turn-around-dont-drown">avoid walking or driving in flooded areas</a> – it could save your life. </p>
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<p>Tornado safety is critical. Tornado readiness includes <a href="https://www.weather.gov/oun/safety-severe-homesafety">knowing the safest room in your home</a> – usually a windowless interior room on the lowest floor – and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/nwr/">tuning in to NOAA Weather Radio</a>, which will provide severe-weather information directly from your local National Weather Service office. </p>
<p>During any severe weather event, such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-texas-blackouts-showed-how-climate-extremes-threaten-energy-systems-across-the-us-155834">February 2021 deep freeze in Texas</a>, the power may go out, so everyone should have flashlights and batteries on hand. Portable generators can be useful during extended outages, but <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/co/pdfs/generators.pdf">always operate them outdoors</a> to avoid the risk of <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/04/29/texas-carbon-monoxide-poisoning/">carbon monoxide poisoning</a>.</p>
<p>Apathy and complacency can also be dangerous when it comes to weather-driven disasters. In my view, weather readiness has to become a way of life – something that all Americans see as their responsibility. The best forecasts in the world may be useless if the public doesn’t respond or hasn’t taken the needed actions to protect themselves when extreme weather threatens.</p>
<p>Most importantly, remember to help your neighbors when needed, especially if they are elderly and can’t help themselves. In addition, consider supporting local nonprofits or churches that help residents in your community who have financial or transportation needs to be ready and safe. We are all in this together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158279/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik Salna currently leads education and outreach projects funded by the Florida Division of Emergency Management and the Inter-American Teacher Education Network (ITEN) with the Organization of American States (OAS).
</span></em></p>Federal weather scientists are pushing to make the US more ‘weather-ready,’ which could mean prepping for fires, flooding or storms depending on where you live. The common factor: thinking ahead.Erik Salna, Associate Director of Education and Outreach, Extreme Events Institute, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1578822021-05-18T02:17:46Z2021-05-18T02:17:46ZIt can’t all be insured: counting the hidden economic impact of floods and bushfires<p>The Australian government’s latest budget has committed A$210 million for a new climate information service, $600 million for a new agency to promote natural disaster recovery and resilience, and $10 billion for a reinsurance fund to reduce insurance premiums in northern Australia.</p>
<p>That money split is symptomatic of a general focus on the impact of natural disasters – thinking about their costs in terms of direct damage to the built environment. </p>
<p>Lost homes and infrastructure, of course, do need to be replaced; and insurance claims do provide a neat way to calculate a tangible cost to a fire or flood. </p>
<p>But just because insurance numbers are solid and straightforward, we shouldn’t ignore that disasters have broader flow-on economic impacts that can’t really be insured against. </p>
<p>A farmer might be able to claim for a crop lost directly in flood, for example, but how to insure against the decline in output the next year?</p>
<p>And what insurance policy can protect the lowest paid or women from having their average incomes in disaster-affected being suppressed for up to five years? </p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-are-affecting-some-of-australias-most-disadvantaged-communities-68165">Natural disasters are affecting some of Australia's most disadvantaged communities</a>
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<h2>83 disasters, 10 industry sectors</h2>
<p>To investigate the impact of natural disasters, I and colleagues from Curtin University, the University of Melbourne’s Centre for Disaster Management and Public Safety, and Ghent University in Belgium <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1475-4932.12446">analysed data</a> for 47 major floods and 36 major bushfires in Australia from 1978 to 2014. </p>
<p>This research used data by economic sector from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The bureau divides the economy into <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/industry-overview/australian-industry/latest-release">18 industry sectors</a>. We focused on the ten most relevant: agriculture; construction; mining; manufacturing; recreation; retail; real estate and financial services; transport, storage and communications; utilities (electricity, gas, water and waste); and the public sector. </p>
<p>Beginning with state-level data on the total value of goods and services of each sector, we then used statistical techniques to estimate how much, on average, floods and bush fires changed these values in the disaster year and the following year. </p>
<h2>Floods do the most damage</h2>
<p>Floods had the most far-reaching effects. On average, a typical major flood in our study reduced a state’s output in the following sectors in both the year of the disaster and the subsequent year. The effects over the two years (compared to other states that did not have a disaster) were:</p>
<ul>
<li>in mining, down 12.8% in the first year, 12% in the second</li>
<li>in agricultural, down 5.6% in the first year, 6.2% in the second</li>
<li>in construction, down 3.2% in the first year, 1.5% in the second</li>
<li>in property and financial services, down 3.62% in the first year only</li>
<li>in wholesale/retail trade, down 2.34% in the second year only</li>
<li>in recreation, down 2.93% in the second year only.</li>
</ul>
<p>Three sectors related to relief and recovery had higher economic output: </p>
<ul>
<li>public and emergency management, up 1.6% in the first year, 4.2% in the second</li>
<li>utility services, up 4.4% in the first year, 3.1% in the second</li>
<li>transport, storage and communications, up 1% in the first year, 2.1% in the second.</li>
</ul>
<p>Little effect was detected for manufacturing.</p>
<h2>Bushfires have different impacts</h2>
<p>Severe bushfires reduced output in the construction and transport, storage and communications sectors. Our analysis showed little impact on mining, manufacturing, finance and property or agricultural output. </p>
<p>The finding on agriculture, in particular, might seem counter-intuitive. It is likely due to fires mostly affecting forested areas and the fire season being in summer, when most crops have already been harvested. </p>
<p>Somewhat surprisingly, fires had no notable effect on recreation, utilities or public sector and emergency management outputs in the sectoral data.</p>
<p>The only sector showing an increase in output was wholesale/retail trade. This increased an average 7.68%.</p>
<h2>Disasters increase inequality</h2>
<p>Another way to measure the lingering and less obvious economic effects of disasters is through changes in individual incomes. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/people/mulubasoglu">different research</a> using Australian census data from 2006, 2011 and 2016, we have found incomes can be suppressed for many years after a disaster. </p>
<p>Following Victoria’s 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, for example, we found the average annual incomes for agricultural workers in fire-ravaged areas was $8,000 lower over the following two years. For workers in accommodation and food services, the average income was $4,600 lower for two years. </p>
<p>For some groups, lower incomes persisted far longer. The average income for women in areas affected by the Black Saturday fires was $2,500-$3,000 lower until at least 2016 – the limit of our study. (We found no change in average incomes for men). </p>
<p>For the bottom third of income earners – earning an average of about $26,000 a year – incomes were suppressed by about $2,200 a year up to 2016. The average income of the highest third of earners – earning an average of about $51,000 a year – also dropped in the two years following (by about $4,400) but returned to their pre-disaster levels by 2016.</p>
<p>These figures show how natural disasters increase inequality. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-increase-inequality-recovery-funding-may-make-things-worse-131643">Natural disasters increase inequality. Recovery funding may make things worse</a>
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<h2>Accounting for all costs</h2>
<p>With the frequency and severity of natural disasters predicted to increase, the economic flow-on effects will also increase.</p>
<p>Understanding their full economic impacts and accounting for all <a href="http://australianbusinessroundtable.com.au/our-research/social-costs-report">their social costs</a>– is crucial to ensure policies help the sectors and groups who need it most. We need mitigation. We need resilience. We also need to do what we can on prevention, through supporting international efforts to limit the drivers of more extreme weather events.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157882/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mehmet Ulubasoglu receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC). Ulubasoglu's studies cited in this article have been funded by the BNHCRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lan Anh Tong works as a research fellow at Deakin University. Her position is partly funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC)</span></em></p>To understand the different economic impacts of natural disasters, we looked at 47 major floods and 36 major bushfires in Australia.Mehmet Ulubasoglu, Professor of Economics, Head of the Department of Economics and Director of the Centre for Energy, the Environment and Natural Disasters, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1607062021-05-13T23:51:19Z2021-05-13T23:51:19ZGetting ready for climate change is about people, not spreadsheets. Let’s use our imaginations<p>Measures in this week’s federal budget to help Australians withstand and adapt to climate change are sorely needed, after <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2017-budget-has-axed-research-to-help-australia-adapt-to-climate-change-77477">years of cuts</a> in this policy area.</p>
<p>The Morrison government has funded a raft of initiatives, including A$600 million to establish a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/05/coalition-allocates-600m-for-new-resilience-agency-to-help-combat-threat-of-natural-disasters">National Recovery and Resilience Agency</a> and A$210 million for the <a href="https://minister.awe.gov.au/ley/media-releases/new-national-climate-service-australia">Australian Climate Service</a>. </p>
<p>But disaster recovery can’t be the sole focus of climate adaptation. Are we harnessing networks that enable a society to function effectively, and tapping into diverse forms of knowledge? Are we valuing all types of “capital”? In short, are we being imaginative enough?</p>
<p>Australia can take great strides forward in climate policy and action. A reactionary, incremental approach to adaptation will fall short. Now is the time to think big.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Disaster resilience measures were contained in the federal budget delivered this week by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg (right), pictured here with Prime Minister Scott Morrison.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate adaptation matters</h2>
<p>Importantly, the government is seeking to embed climate adaptation across various portfolios. </p>
<p>The National Recovery and Resilience Agency <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/05/coalition-allocates-600m-for-new-resilience-agency-to-help-combat-threat-of-natural-disasters">NRRA</a> will combine fire and flood agencies to centralise disaster recovery and response. This multi-agency structure should reduce “siloing” across government departments. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://minister.awe.gov.au/ley/media-releases/new-national-climate-service-australia">Australian Climate Service</a> will collate climate data and advise the NRRA, helping streamline disaster recovery decisions. It will also support the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/adaptation/strategy">review</a> of Australia’s current resilience and adaptation strategy. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-has-pledged-over-800m-to-fight-natural-disasters-it-could-be-revolutionary-if-done-right-160348">The government has pledged over $800m to fight natural disasters. It could be revolutionary — if done right</a>
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<p>These initiatives are welcome. But climate resilience means far more than responding once disaster hits. Human decision-making is complex, especially during a crisis. A solely post-disaster response inevitably means some people are left behind. In contrast, adaptation that plans for and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26268129?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">anticipates</a> future events can help ensure people – especially the vulnerable – are not left worse off by the climate crisis.</p>
<p>And while we will always need climate data and risk modelling, we cannot assume everyone will use the data to make good decisions. </p>
<p>Increasing Australians’ resilience to climate change means putting people’s lived experience and knowledge first. Planning should be <a href="https://www.iied.org/introduction-community-based-adaptation-climate-change">community-based</a>, and these perspectives should translate <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Community-Based-Adaptation-to-Climate-Change-Scaling-it-up/Schipper-Ayers-Reid-Huq-Rahman/p/book/9780415623704">into policy</a>. </p>
<p>The Reimagining Climate Adaptation Summit, <a href="https://www.futureearth.org.au/initiatives/securing-australias-future/reimagining-climate-adaptation-videos">held last month</a>, explored this path. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="back view of woman holding sign reading 'we need a change'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Communities want change – and that means involving them in adaptation planning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Get comfortable with complexity</h2>
<p>The summit in April brought together people from research, business, climate, community and government. Four themes emerged:</p>
<p><strong>1. Learn from diverse knowledges and perspectives</strong></p>
<p>The knowledge and history of Australia’s First Peoples must be at the centre of the climate response. </p>
<p>Work has already begun on incorporating Indigenous fire knowledge into mainstream bushfire management, including <a href="https://indigenousknowledge.unimelb.edu.au/news/congratulating-associate-professor-michael-shawn-fletcher-on-receiving-a-prestigious-arc-grant">research</a> that tests this knowledge in highly flammable forests.</p>
<p>More broadly, Caring for Country is based on <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378013000423?casa_token=9fIoH0wsF1EAAAAA:OUoRoh8dU6Qg3BAlDdA0L11lZjtVRpRjj2A_QZFl0bcBhUry5s-4C0D5mfyyzBeMfWN0l-m6g8gB">deep and detailed knowledge</a>. And First Peoples approaches are fundamentally <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10745-019-00085-9">highly adaptive</a>. They are based on relationships, belonging and responsibility to place, and consider social and economic well-being and environment together.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/soaring-housing-costs-are-pushing-retirees-into-areas-where-disaster-risks-are-high-158216">Soaring housing costs are pushing retirees into areas where disaster risks are high</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aboriginal men in traditional dress" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indigenous knowledge should be included and respected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>2. Involve communities</strong></p>
<p>Climate anxiety <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30081-4/fulltext">is growing</a>, partly due to a sense of helplessness and uncertainty that comes with unpredictable change. Community-based adaptation also involves creating a supportive social infrastructure that can address such anxiety. </p>
<p>People have the skills, knowledge and energy to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-021-00921-2">shape robust local plans</a>. Research shows including communities in adaptation planning can help <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2017.1287628">identify specific vulnerabilities</a>. </p>
<p>Communities can also embed anticipation of climate change impacts into <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1177083X.2019.1652659">longer term policy</a> that make sense in that place and to those people. This improves the prospect of success. For example, the City of Newcastle’s <a href="https://www.newcastle.nsw.gov.au/getmedia/2b905379-0035-4856-9ff8-ea41f03afc8d/Climate-Action-Plan">Climate Action Plan</a> takes its cue from <a href="https://www.newcastle.nsw.gov.au/Newcastle/media/Documents/Engagements/Completed/3119-CSP-Strategy-FINAL-WEB.pdf">extensive community consultation</a>. </p>
<p><strong>3. Don’t shy away from hard discussions</strong></p>
<p>Climate change brings risk to homes – from flood, fire, and coastal inundation. Climate adaptation planning must include discussion of what risks a community is willing to tolerate, and whether adaptation pathways should eventually include retreat from some areas.</p>
<p>Recent floods in Western Sydney illustrated well such risks to homes and livelihoods. Urban sprawl in vulnerable locations also <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/stop-putting-people-in-the-way-of-floods-20210321-p57cn6.html">highlights the difficulties</a> with managing past decisions in a new, changing, climate. </p>
<p>Such considerations are particularly important for disadvantaged communities, which are often <a href="https://theconversation.com/soaring-housing-costs-are-pushing-retirees-into-areas-where-disaster-risks-are-high-158216">hardest hit</a> by natural disasters.</p>
<p><strong>4. Consider all types of capital</strong></p>
<p>Governments should properly balance investment and policy support for all capital: natural, human, social, financial and physical. </p>
<p>Research shows economies can be made more resilient to climate change by adopting more sustainable models. For example, regenerative <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/scaling-productive-and-regenerative-agriculture/">agriculture</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-regenerative-farming-can-help-grow-food-with-less-impact-123090">practices</a> can increase production while reducing environmental damage. There are many lessons to be learned here from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/06/all-about-the-land-drought-shakes-farming-to-its-indigenous-roots">Australia’s First Peoples</a>. </p>
<p>In terms of “traditional” capital, many large funds want to understand the climate risk across their portfolios. This includes certainty from governments on climate mitigation and adaptation policies and their respective opportunities. This has been forthcoming from <a href="http://www.lilydambrosio.com.au/media-releases/climate-plan-to-cut-emissions-and-create-jobs/">some Australian states</a>, and must now be replicated by the federal government. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/managed-retreat-of-settlements-remains-a-tough-call-even-as-homes-flood-and-coasts-erode-157595">Managed retreat of settlements remains a tough call even as homes flood and coasts erode</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="cows in field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regenerative agriculture need not lower farm profits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The future is now</h2>
<p>Australia’s climate is already changing, and this will only worsen. Clearly, we must reimagine how we will adapt to an increasingly uncertain future.</p>
<p>The federal government must provide integrated, long-term national funding and support to help communities and local governments cope with the climate threat. Local adaptation action should be developed, tested and shared in the community before disaster hits.</p>
<p>Amid all this, we must never overlook the vital need for dramatic and immediate emissions reduction. Australia lags the world on climate action, and this week’s budget did <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-budget-should-have-been-a-road-to-australias-low-emissions-future-instead-its-a-flight-of-fancy-160775">little to address that</a>.</p>
<p><em>Mark Stafford Smith, Steve Dovers, Andrew Ash and Taryn Laubenstein contributed to the adaptation summit process, and to this article.</em></p>
<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tayanah O'Donnell has received research funding from Federal and State/Territory governments, including funding for climate adaptation research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Schlosberg has received funding from the Australian Research Council, as well as local and state governments, for research on more fair and just approaches to adaptation planning. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eleanor Robson has previously worked for a parliamentarian in the Australian Labor Party.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Juan Francisco Salazar has received funding from the Australian Research Council as well as local and state government funding. </span></em></p>Australia can take great strides forward in climate policy and action. A reactionary, incremental approach to adaptation will fall short. Now is the time to think big.Tayanah O'Donnell, Director, Future Earth Australia at the Australian Academy of Science and Honorary Associate Professor, Australian National UniversityDavid Schlosberg, Director Sydney Environment Institute and Professor of Environmental Politics, University of SydneyEleanor Robson, Research and Policy Officer, Future Earth Australia, Australian Academy of ScienceJuan Francisco Salazar, Professor, School of Humanities and Communication Arts & Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1536382021-01-21T18:49:47Z2021-01-21T18:49:47ZWetlands have saved Australia $27 billion in storm damage over the past five decades<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379865/original/file-20210121-21-13liy5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C2460%2C1624&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia is in the midst of tropical cyclone season. As we write, a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-20/cyclone-lucas-wa-warning-tourists-urged-to-leave/13075018">cyclone is forming</a> off Western Australia’s Pilbara coast, and earlier in the week Queenslanders were bracing for a cyclone in the state’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-18/qld-tropical-cyclone-kimi-category-one-cairns-townsville/13066832">far north</a> (which thankfully, didn’t hit).</p>
<p>Australia has always experienced cyclones. But here and around the world, climate change means the cyclone threat <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/117/22/11975">is growing</a> – and so too is the potential damage bill. Disadvantaged populations are often most at risk.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041620301479">recent research</a> shows 54 cyclones struck Australia in the 50 years between 1967 and 2016, causing about A$3 billion in damage. We found the damages would have totalled approximately A$30 billion, if not for coastal wetlands.</p>
<p>Wetlands such as mangroves, swamps, lakes and lagoons bear the brunt of much storm damage to coast, helping protect us and our infrastructure. But over the past 300 years, <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/mf/mf14173">85% of the world’s wetland area</a> has been destroyed. It’s clear we must urgently preserve the precious little wetland area we have left.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A wetland close to coastal development." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379869/original/file-20210121-21-140jgb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379869/original/file-20210121-21-140jgb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379869/original/file-20210121-21-140jgb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379869/original/file-20210121-21-140jgb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379869/original/file-20210121-21-140jgb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379869/original/file-20210121-21-140jgb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379869/original/file-20210121-21-140jgb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wetland areas provide important protection from cyclones.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A critical buffer</h2>
<p>National disasters cost Australia as much as <a href="http://australianbusinessroundtable.com.au/assets/reports/media-release-nov-11.pdf">A$18 billion each year</a> on average. About one-quarter of this is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221242091630440X">due to</a> cyclone damage. </p>
<p>Wetlands can mitigate cyclone and hurricane damage, by absorbing storm surges and slowing winds. For example in August 2020, Hurricane Laura hit the United States’ midwest. Massive damage was predicted, including a 6.5-metre storm surge extending 65 kilometres inland. </p>
<p>However the surge was one metre at most – largely because the storm drove straight into a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/02/weatherwatch-hurricane-laura-storm-surge-that-went-astray">massive wetland that absorbed most of the predicted flood</a>.</p>
<p>In Australia, wetlands are lost through intentional infilling or drainage for mosquito control, or to create land for infrastructure and agriculture. They’re also lost due to pollution and upstream changes to water flows.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Caley Valley Wetlands, next to Adani's Abbot Point coal terminal." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379868/original/file-20210121-19-ezoabd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379868/original/file-20210121-19-ezoabd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379868/original/file-20210121-19-ezoabd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379868/original/file-20210121-19-ezoabd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379868/original/file-20210121-19-ezoabd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379868/original/file-20210121-19-ezoabd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379868/original/file-20210121-19-ezoabd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s wetlands are at risk. Pictured is the Caley Valley Wetlands, next to Adani’s Abbot Point coal terminal. Adani was fined for releasing polluted water into the wetland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gary Farr/ACF</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Putting a price on cyclone protection</h2>
<p>Our research set out to determine the financial value of the storm protection provided by Australia’s wetlands.</p>
<p>We examined the 54 cyclones that struck Australia in the five decades to 2016. We gathered data including:</p>
<ul>
<li>physical damage wrought in each storm swath (or storm path)</li>
<li>gross domestic product (GDP) in the storm’s path </li>
<li>maximum windspeed during each storm, which helps predict damage</li>
<li>total area of wetlands in each swath. </li>
</ul>
<p>Using a powerful type of statistics called Bayesian analysis, we estimated the extent to which GDP, windspeed and wetland area affected total damage. This allowed us to estimate damage caused in the absence of wetlands.</p>
<p>We found for every hectare of wetland, about A$4,200 per year in cyclone damage was avoided. This means the A$3 billion in cyclone damage over the past 50 years would have totalled approximately A$30 billion, if not for coastal wetlands.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/restoring-a-gem-in-the-murray-darling-basin-the-success-story-of-the-winton-wetlands-140337">Restoring a gem in the Murray-Darling Basin: the success story of the Winton Wetlands</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Importantly, the percentage of damage averted falls rapidly as wetland area decreases. And the protection afforded by a single hectare of wetland increases drastically if there are fewer other wetlands in the path of the storm. This makes protecting remaining wetland even more critical.</p>
<p>If the average cyclone path in Australia were to contain around 30,000 hectares of wetlands, it would avert about 90% of potential storm damage. If the wetland area dropped to 3,000 hectares, only about 30% of damage would be averted.</p>
<p>Climate change is making cyclones worse. By 2050, Australia’s annual damage bill could be as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041620301479">high as A$39 billion</a>, assuming current levels of wetlands are maintained.</p>
<p>Seawalls and other artificial structures can be built along the coast to protect from storms. However, research in China has found wetlands are more cost-effective and efficient than man-made structures at <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718347648">preventing cyclone damage</a>.</p>
<p>Unlike man-made structures, wetlands maintain themselves. Their only “cost” is the opportunity cost of not being able to use the land for something else.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People inspect cyclone damage" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379870/original/file-20210121-21-j4mz5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379870/original/file-20210121-21-j4mz5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379870/original/file-20210121-21-j4mz5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379870/original/file-20210121-21-j4mz5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379870/original/file-20210121-21-j4mz5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379870/original/file-20210121-21-j4mz5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379870/original/file-20210121-21-j4mz5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wetlands can help prevent cyclone damage, such as this wrought in Queensland during Cyclone Debbie in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Keeping wetlands safe</h2>
<p>According to recent analysis by the authors, which is currently under peer review, global wetlands provide US$447 billion (A$657 billion) worth of protection from storms each year.</p>
<p>Of course, wetlands provide benefits beyond storm protection. They store carbon, regulate our climate and control flooding. They also absorb waste including pollutants and carbon, provide animal habitat and places for human recreation. </p>
<p>Wetlands are an incredibly important resource. It’s critical we protect them from development and keep them healthy, so they can continue to provide vital services.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-model-shows-australia-can-expect-11-tropical-cyclones-this-season-146318">Our new model shows Australia can expect 11 tropical cyclones this season</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153638/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Wetlands bear the brunt of much storm damage to the coast. But over the past 300 years, 85% of the world’s wetland area has been destroyed.Obadiah Mulder, PhD Candidate in Computational Biology, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesIda Kubiszewski, Associate Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1448292020-08-28T15:24:35Z2020-08-28T15:24:35ZHow to protect communities from natural disasters – what research tells us<p>On the morning of August 29 2005, one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes hit the US Gulf Coast. With sustained winds of up to 140 mph, Hurricane Katrina killed over 1,800 people and caused $160 billion worth of damage.</p>
<p>The government at the time was criticised for its slow response, particularly its failure to involve local communities in decisions about preparing for and responding to the disaster. Almost 15 years to the day, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53928960">another major storm</a> bore down on the region. Half a million people in Texas and Louisiana evacuated to escape Hurricane Laura’s “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53921285">unsurvivable</a>” storm surge and, at the time of writing, and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53928960">at least six people</a> have been killed.</p>
<p>I study natural disasters in order to better understand how to save lives. One of the most important strategies for reducing the risk to everyone in a community is to <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/290748/scho1005bjtc-e-e.pdf">engage with local people</a> at every stage of decision making.</p>
<p>Communities in disaster-prone regions have developed strategies over generations for dealing with extreme weather. They’re more likely to spot the warning seasons early and know how best to respond. </p>
<p>The impacts of natural disasters can have a lasting effect on the lives of those in affected regions too, as anyone who has lived in New Orleans over the last two decades could tell you. It’s vital the input of these communities is taken into consideration if there is to be lasting trust in the institutions that organise disaster preparation and relief efforts.</p>
<h2>Early warnings</h2>
<p>Some of <a href="https://www.uel.ac.uk/news/2018/10/uk-japan-disaster-reduction">my research</a> has compared how academic experts and people living in disaster-prone areas think differently about these events. While experts studying natural disasters tend to focus on intense but infrequent events like tsunamis, there are communities around the world which have adapted to milder but more common problems like flooding.</p>
<p>We wanted to visit communities in both the UK and Japan, to compare how their community leaders and engineers developed counter measures to protect their local areas. These were categorised as “soft” countermeasures, like evacuation plans and early warning systems, and as “hard” solutions, such as flood defences and embankments.</p>
<p>Communities facing high-impact but low-frequency disasters, like tsunamis in Japan, tend to have strategies that prevent or reduce the scale of the damage with hard engineering, such as sea walls. For communities subject to low-impact but high-frequency hazards like flooding, such as those we studied <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/18/welsh-homes-flooded-for-third-time-this-year-as-rain-batters-uk">in the UK</a>, adaptation is what characterises most countermeasures, including community networks that keep vulnerable people alert to any threat.</p>
<p>The Joukumachi community in Hita City of Oita Prefecture, Japan was affected by torrential rain in 2017 and 2018. Though government measures were slowly enacted, with some residents evacuated to shelters and higher ground, it was interventions by local residents that allowed the community to recognise the risks early and respond quickly. </p>
<p>Most notably, local people used handmade rain gauges with loudspeakers that could broadcast alerts to monitor the approaching danger. This early warning system helped people prepare before the government could launch a response.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Solar powered rain gauges attached to red loudspeakers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355304/original/file-20200828-14-rvcqsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355304/original/file-20200828-14-rvcqsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355304/original/file-20200828-14-rvcqsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355304/original/file-20200828-14-rvcqsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355304/original/file-20200828-14-rvcqsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355304/original/file-20200828-14-rvcqsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355304/original/file-20200828-14-rvcqsi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gauges measure rainfall and attached loudspeakers broadcast a warning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ravindra Jayaratne</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Preparing for the future</h2>
<p>But what makes an effective response to future disasters? Our research in Sturmer, a flood-prone village in Essex, England, showed that dedicated community organising is the best defence.</p>
<p>Sturmer was swamped with heavy rainfall in 2001 and 2014, causing floods that wreaked a lot of damage. But these events paled in comparison to the catastrophic storm surges that devastated the region in 1953. As climate change threatens more severe rain storms in the future, the community has developed its own ways to stay prepared.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/1953-storm-surge-how-britains-worst-natural-disaster-kicked-off-the-debate-on-climate-change-71310">1953 storm surge: how Britain's worst natural disaster kicked off the debate on climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355309/original/file-20200828-20-1xoua5v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sturdy, white board with 'floodshield' written on it stands in a living room." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355309/original/file-20200828-20-1xoua5v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355309/original/file-20200828-20-1xoua5v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355309/original/file-20200828-20-1xoua5v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355309/original/file-20200828-20-1xoua5v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355309/original/file-20200828-20-1xoua5v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355309/original/file-20200828-20-1xoua5v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355309/original/file-20200828-20-1xoua5v.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Portable flood defences like this are stored in vulnerable homes and can be deployed when the action group warns flooding is imminent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ravindra Jayaratne</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Following the floods in 2014, a flood action group was formed in the village. The group is led by members of the community and it communicates flood risk through meetings, magazines and flyers. To keep local residents aware of flood alerts, some in the group are responsible for constantly checking the daily weather forecast, as well as flood depth gauges deployed in the stream. When flooding seems imminent, the houses most at risk are provided with portable flood gates that can be deployed as and when they’re needed.</p>
<p>This ongoing, bottom-up approach looks very different to a reactive disaster response led by central government agencies – which are often based far away. Even the best examples of top-down management are unlikely to possess the breadth of experience and local knowledge that makes communities so effective at preparing for natural disasters. </p>
<p>Central governments must learn from them and ask how best they can aid relief and recovery, rather than try and impose a one-size-fits-all approach.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ravindra Jayaratne received funding from UK Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) scheme of Kansai University, Japan.</span></em></p>Knowing what makes an effective response to natural disasters will be increasingly important as the climate crisis intensifies.Ravindra Jayaratne, Reader in Coastal Engineering, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1349122020-04-30T20:09:25Z2020-04-30T20:09:25ZDisasters expose gaps in emergency services’ social media use<p>Australia has borne the brunt of several major disasters in recent years, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/entire-hillsides-of-trees-turned-brown-this-summer-is-it-the-start-of-ecosystem-collapse-126107">drought</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-costs-approaching-100-billion-the-fires-are-australias-costliest-natural-disaster-129433">bushfires</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/catastrophic-queensland-floods-killed-600-000-cattle-and-devastated-native-species-120753">floods</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-debbie-we-can-design-cities-to-withstand-these-natural-disasters-75287">cyclones</a>. The increasing use of social media is changing how we prepare for and respond to these disasters. Not only emergency services but also their social media are now much-sought-after sources of disaster information and warnings. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101571">studied</a> Australian emergency services’ social media use in times of disaster. Social media can provide invaluable and time-critical information to both emergency services and communities at risk. But we also found problems.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-fire-and-flood-how-outer-urban-areas-can-manage-the-emergency-while-reducing-future-risks-131560">Drought, fire and flood: how outer urban areas can manage the emergency while reducing future risks</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How do emergency services use social media?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disaster/2019-australian-wildfires/">2019-20 Australian bushfires</a> affected <a href="https://theconversation.com/nearly-80-of-australians-affected-in-some-way-by-the-bushfires-new-survey-shows-131672">80% of the population</a> directly or indirectly. Social media were widely used to spread awareness of the bushfire disaster and to raise funds – albeit <a href="https://theconversation.com/next-time-weve-got-to-handle-emergency-donations-better-132273">sometimes controversially</a> – to help people in need. </p>
<p>The escalating use and importance of social media in disaster management raises an important question: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>How effective are social media pages of Australian state emergency management organisations in meeting community expectations and needs? </p>
</blockquote>
<p>To answer this question, <a href="https://research.qut.edu.au/smartcity/home/people/urban-studies-lab/">QUT’s Urban Studies Lab</a> investigated the community engagement approaches of social media pages maintained by various Australian emergency services. We placed Facebook and Twitter pages of New South Wales State Emergency Services (NSW-SES), Victoria State Emergency Services (VIC-SES) and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QLD-FES) under the microscope. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101571">Our study</a> made four key findings.</p>
<p>First, emergency services’ social media pages are intended to:</p>
<ul>
<li>disseminate warnings</li>
<li>provide an alternative communication channel</li>
<li>receive rescue and recovery requests</li>
<li>collect information about the public’s experiences</li>
<li>raise disaster awareness</li>
<li>build collective intelligence</li>
<li>encourage volunteerism</li>
<li>express gratitude to emergency service staff and volunteers</li>
<li>raise funds for those in need.</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-costs-approaching-100-billion-the-fires-are-australias-costliest-natural-disaster-129433">With costs approaching $100 billion, the fires are Australia's costliest natural disaster</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Examples of emergency services’ social media posts are shown below.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325221/original/file-20200403-74206-5iy1q1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325221/original/file-20200403-74206-5iy1q1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325221/original/file-20200403-74206-5iy1q1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325221/original/file-20200403-74206-5iy1q1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325221/original/file-20200403-74206-5iy1q1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=949&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325221/original/file-20200403-74206-5iy1q1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=949&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325221/original/file-20200403-74206-5iy1q1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=949&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NSW-SES collecting data from the public through their posts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325222/original/file-20200403-74243-1hvqkob.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325222/original/file-20200403-74243-1hvqkob.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325222/original/file-20200403-74243-1hvqkob.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325222/original/file-20200403-74243-1hvqkob.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325222/original/file-20200403-74243-1hvqkob.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325222/original/file-20200403-74243-1hvqkob.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325222/original/file-20200403-74243-1hvqkob.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">VIC-SES sharing weather warnings to inform the public.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325223/original/file-20200403-74243-12cthc2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325223/original/file-20200403-74243-12cthc2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325223/original/file-20200403-74243-12cthc2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325223/original/file-20200403-74243-12cthc2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325223/original/file-20200403-74243-12cthc2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325223/original/file-20200403-74243-12cthc2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325223/original/file-20200403-74243-12cthc2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">QLD-FES posting fire condition information to increase public awareness.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325224/original/file-20200403-74212-1lcicso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325224/original/file-20200403-74212-1lcicso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325224/original/file-20200403-74212-1lcicso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325224/original/file-20200403-74212-1lcicso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325224/original/file-20200403-74212-1lcicso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=999&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325224/original/file-20200403-74212-1lcicso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=999&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325224/original/file-20200403-74212-1lcicso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=999&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">QLD-FES showing the direction of a cyclone and warning the community.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Second, Facebook pages of emergency services attract more community attention than Twitter pages. Services need to make their Twitter pages more attractive as, unlike Facebook, Twitter allows streamlined data download for social media analytics. A widely used Twitter page of emergency service means more data for analysis and potentially more accurate policies and actions.</p>
<p>Third, Australia lacks a legal framework for the use of social media in emergency service operations. Developing these frameworks will help organisations maximise its use, especially in the case of financial matters such as donations.</p>
<p>Fourth, the credibility of public-generated information can sometimes be questionable. Authorities need to be able to respond rapidly to such information to avoid the spread of misinformation or “fake news” on social media.</p>
<h2>Services could do more with social media</h2>
<p>Our research highlighted that emergency services could use social media more effectively. We do not see these services analysing social media data to inform their activities before, during and after disasters.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://eprints.qut.edu.au/133703/">another study</a> on the use of social media analytics for disaster management, we developed a novel approach to show how emergency services can identify disaster-affected areas using real-time social media data. For that study, we collected Twitter data with location information on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/old-floods-show-brisbanes-next-big-wet-might-be-closer-than-we-think-70392">2010-11 Queensland floods</a>. We were able to identify disaster severity by analysing the emotional or sentiment values of tweets. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-the-internet-knows-if-youre-happy-or-sad-77401">Explainer: how the internet knows if you're happy or sad</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This work generated the disaster severity map show below. The map is over 90% accurate to actual figures in the report of the <a href="http://www.floodcommission.qld.gov.au/publications/final-report/">Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323603/original/file-20200327-146695-3c9juy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323603/original/file-20200327-146695-3c9juy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323603/original/file-20200327-146695-3c9juy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323603/original/file-20200327-146695-3c9juy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323603/original/file-20200327-146695-3c9juy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323603/original/file-20200327-146695-3c9juy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323603/original/file-20200327-146695-3c9juy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323603/original/file-20200327-146695-3c9juy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Disaster severity map created through Twitter analytics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Concerns about using social media to manage disaster</h2>
<p>The first highly voiced concern about <a href="https://eprints.qut.edu.au/127136/">social media use in disaster management</a> is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-digital-divide-leaves-millions-at-a-disadvantage-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic-133608">digital divide</a>. While the issue of <a href="https://theconversation.com/online-tools-can-help-people-in-disasters-but-do-they-represent-everyone-116810">underrepresented people and communities</a> remains important, the use of technology is spreading widely. There were <a href="https://p.widencdn.net/kqy7ii/Digital2019-Report-en">3.4 billion social media users</a> worldwide in 2019, and the growth in numbers is accelerating. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/online-tools-can-help-people-in-disasters-but-do-they-represent-everyone-116810">Online tools can help people in disasters, but do they represent everyone?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Besides, many Australian cities and towns are investing in <a href="https://theconversation.com/smart-city-or-not-now-you-can-see-how-yours-compares-130881">smart city strategies</a> and infrastructures. These localities provide <a href="https://www.wiman.me/australia">free public Wi-Fi</a> connections. And almost <a href="https://www.consultancy.com.au/news/616/9-out-of-10-australian-citizens-now-own-a-smartphone">90% of Australians now own a smart phone</a>.</p>
<p>The second concern is information accuracy or <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/02/politics/state-efforts-against-social-media-misinformation/index.html">“fake news” on social media</a>. Evidently, sharing false information and rumours compromises the information social media provides. Social media images and videos tagged with location information can provide more reliable, eye-witness information.</p>
<p>Another concern is difficulty in receiving social media messages from severely affected areas. For instance, the disaster might have brought down internet or 4G/5G coverage, or people might have been evacuated from areas at risk. This might lead to limited social media posts from the actual disaster zone, with increasing numbers of posts from the places people are relocated. </p>
<p>In such a scenario, alternative social media analytics are on offer. We can use <a href="https://theconversation.com/hide-your-location-on-twitter-we-can-still-find-you-and-thats-not-a-bad-thing-in-an-emergency-58649">content analysis</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-the-internet-knows-if-youre-happy-or-sad-77401">sentiment analysis</a> to determine the disaster location and impact.</p>
<h2>How to make the most of social media</h2>
<p>Social media and its applications are generating new and innovative ways to manage disasters and reduce their impacts. These include: </p>
<ul>
<li>increasing community trust in emergency services by social media profiling </li>
<li>crowd-sourcing the collection and sharing of disaster information</li>
<li>creating awareness by incorporating <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-08-2019-0054">gamification applications</a> in social media<br></li>
<li>using social media data to detect disaster intensity and hotspot locations</li>
<li>running <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2019.02.029">real-time data analytics</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>In sum, social media could become a mainstream information provider for disaster management. The need is likely to become more pressing as human-induced <a href="https://eprints.qut.edu.au/132499/">climate change</a> <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/editors-picks-for-2019-preparing-for-the-era-of-disasters/">increases the severity and frequency of disasters</a>.</p>
<p>Today, as we confront the COVID-19 pandemic, social media analytics are helping to <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-twitter-could-more-effectively-ease-its-impact-132422">ease its impacts</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en13061473">Artificial intelligence (AI)</a> technologies are greatly reducing processing time for social media analytics. We believe the next-generation AI will enable us to undertake <a href="https://www.netbase.com/blog/the-2019-social-analytics-and-artificial-intelligence-report">real-time social media analytics</a> more accurately.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-twitter-could-more-effectively-ease-its-impact-132422">Coronavirus: How Twitter could more effectively ease its impact</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tan Yigitcanlar receives funding from the Commonwealth and Queensland Governments for his current research on the planning of smart and sustainable cities and innovation districts. He is affiliated with the Brazilian Federal University of Santa Catarina as an honorary professor.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ashantha Goonetilleke receives funding from the Queensland and Commonwealth Government and Logan City Council for his current research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nayomi Kankanamge is a PhD student of the Queensland University of Technology. She receives funding from the Queensland University of Technology Postgraduate Research Award. </span></em></p>Australian emergency services are using social media for a number of purposes during disasters. What they are not doing well is analysing social media data in real time to improve disaster management.Tan Yigitcanlar, Associate Professor of Urban Studies and Planning, Queensland University of TechnologyAshantha Goonetilleke, Professor, Queensland University of TechnologyNayomi Kankanamge, PhD Candidate, School of Built Environment, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1362822020-04-24T08:05:46Z2020-04-24T08:05:46ZWhy political will is important to reduce risks of disaster<p><em>This article is part of a series to commemorate Indonesian National Disaster Preparedness Day on April 26.</em></p>
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<p>Political commitments are often cited as essential for governments and people to reduce potential human suffering in <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/files/55465_globalplatform2017proceedings.pdf">disasters</a> ranging from <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/17-01-2020-from-political-commitment-to-concrete-reality-moving-ahead-on-uhc-in-2020">disease</a>, <a href="http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2005/1000147/index.html">hunger and poverty</a> to <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/new-un-report-says-climate-crisis-driving-increase-in-number-of-people-suffering-from-hunger">climate vulnerability</a>.</p>
<p>The United Nations’ <a href="https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030">Sendai Framework</a> for disaster risk reduction (DRR) underlines the need for political will to apply <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-015-0057-2">proactive measures, including prevention and mitigation, rather than reactive responses</a>. </p>
<p>Political will can be defined as an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.11.006">aggregate of commitments</a> made by leaders and decision-makers. They include those in the executive agencies (presidents, governors) and in the legislative arm (lawmakers, politicians). </p>
<p>They have the authority to allocate resources such as funds for poverty reduction, disaster mitigation, or prevention of epidemics. They are often known as policymakers within the government sectors.</p>
<p>A leader who fails to prioritise an agenda of public concern, such as disaster risk reduction (DRR) or public health, can be considered to have low political will. </p>
<p>As a signatory of the Sendai Framework, Indonesia has failed to demonstrate political will to allocate funding for mitigation and disaster risk reduction. DRR funding accounts for only 7% of its total program budget <a href="http://hss.ulb.uni-bonn.de/2011/2451/2451.pdf">from 2007 to 2012</a> and in <a href="https://bnpb.go.id/dipa">recent fiscal years</a>. </p>
<p>DRR agendas including mitigation measures should receive at least 25%, and more is better. </p>
<p>For Indonesia, a country situated in the Ring of Fire and prone to natural hazards and disasters, providing an adequate budget is important. And that requires political commitment from leaders and politicians. </p>
<h2>Why is political will important for disaster reduction?</h2>
<p>Political will is often seen as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918307751?via%3Dihub">a key factor in resilience</a>.</p>
<p>The problem is most political commitments for societal development and progress largely focus on short-term and must-do-now agendas. Examples include national economic development and fulfilling popular promises to the voters.</p>
<p>In “normal times”, <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-006-9060-3.pdf">disasters are seen as future events that can be delayed</a>. </p>
<p>But in the middle of a large crisis – like the COVID-19 pandemic – political leaders often adopt policies like committing extremely large emergency management funds that are impossible to use in anticipation during pre-disaster stages. </p>
<p>This is entirely logical: first things first; desperate time call for desperate measures. </p>
<p>However, after the crisis ends, most political leaders shift their commitments and allocate resources to other sectors. </p>
<p>Their political mood will go back to business as usual. They will again focus on short-term goals in areas like the economy, rather than on anticipatory policies on issues like climate change, disaster mitigation and pandemic prevention. </p>
<p>For example, there was a spike in the budget allocation for BNPB to deal with catastrophic forest fires in 2015. Data suggest the <a href="https://berkas.dpr.go.id/puskajianggaran/buletin-apbn/public-file/buletin-apbn-public-67.pdf">allocation then declined significantly from 2016 until 2018</a> before Indonesia was hit again by series of disaster events in late 2018. </p>
<h2>How does Indonesia fare?</h2>
<p>Despite its low DRR budget allocation, Indonesia has a relatively high level of DRR knowledge compared with other countries in Southeast Asia. Indonesia is among countries that rank high on the bureaucratic preparedness index, but still behind Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Political will for disaster risk reduction in ASEAN countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Lassa et. al. Measuring political will: An index of commitment to disaster risk reduction, Elsevier</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indonesia scores relatively low in terms of public and private investment in disaster resilience. This is measured by general and catastrophe insurance penetration, integration of DRR with environment and climate policy, commitment to building codes, and disaster impact assessment in development project. </p>
<p>Interestingly, some of these data are based on formal information provided by the Indonesian government to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/progress/reports/index.php?o=pol_year&o2=DESC&ps=50&hid=0&cid=80&x=14&y=4">from 2009 to 2015</a>. These include building codes and disaster impact assessment in development projects.</p>
<p>Despite having considerable disaster legislation, Indonesia’s overall DRR governability is still lower than Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines and ASEAN’s average. </p>
<p>Having good political will does not always translate into real policy reform on the ground. But no sustainable change can happen without political willingness.</p>
<h2>How to measure political will?</h2>
<p>How do we measure political will for DRR, including for climate change and global health risks?</p>
<p>I worked with collaborators in Australia, Indonesia and Singapore to develop our own framework. This is possible due to the unique set-up <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/progress/">used by UNDRR</a> to develop a global reporting system. Countries provide self-assessment of their progress in disaster risk reduction. </p>
<p>These assessments use “scorecard” analysis that can be <a href="http://hss.ulb.uni-bonn.de/2011/2451/2451.htm">easily translated</a> into a global database.</p>
<p>Five variables we used in measuring political will for DRR are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>countries’ commitment to understanding their disaster risk</p></li>
<li><p>governability of disaster risk</p></li>
<li><p>willingness to invest in risk reduction</p></li>
<li><p>bureaucratic promptness and preparedness</p></li>
<li><p>political will to develop early warning systems. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>These variables all contribute to the total “political will”, or the aggregation of commitments to reduce disaster risks that arise from natural hazards and climatic risk. </p>
<p>In other words, the aggregation of political will – as shown by both policy (including laws, regulations, planning) and implementation – will serve as predictors of countries’ disaster risks.</p>
<p>Getting detailed specific data on political will relating to DRR is often difficult. However, by using general governance data – such as <a href="https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/worldwide-bureaucracy-indicators">bureaucracy index</a> and <a href="http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/#home">rule of law and regulatory quality data</a> – we can predict countries’ disaster governability.</p>
<p>The research result is not surprising. Political will is generally low in Africa and Asia-Pacific. It is highest in <a href="https://www.oecd.org/about/">OECD</a> countries and Europe, followed by Southeast Asia, Latin America and Caribbean nations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Political will for DRR knowledge in selected countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lassa et. al. 2019. Measuring political will: An index of commitment to disaster risk reduction. International journal of disaster risk reduction. 34:64-74</span></span>
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</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136282/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonatan A Lassa tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>What is political will or political commitment to disaster risk reduction? Why is it important to measure political commitment? And how to measure it?Jonatan A Lassa, Senior Lecturer, Humanitarian Emergency and Disaster Management, College of Indigenous Futures, Arts and Society, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1287812019-12-13T04:08:35Z2019-12-13T04:08:35ZAustralia needs a national crisis plan, and not just for bushfires<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306754/original/file-20191213-85397-15c6ubq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bushfires aren't the only catastrophic emergency Australia is likely to see. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Calls are growing for a national bushfire plan, including from former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who says they are an issue of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/national-security-issue-turnbull-tells-qa-morrison-must-step-up-response-to-bushfire-crisis">national security</a> and the federal government must provide hands-on leadership. </p>
<p>It’s true that more people are living in high-risk bushfire areas, emergency services are stretched and the climate is rapidly changing. Future crises are inevitable. We must consider the prospect of a monstrous bushfire season, the likes of which we’ve never seen.</p>
<p>But bushfires aren’t the only catastrophe Australia must prepare for. If we are to create a national crisis plan, we must go much further than bushfire planning.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/12-simple-ways-you-can-reduce-bushfire-risk-to-older-homes-122712">12 simple ways you can reduce bushfire risk to older homes</a>
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<h2>Not just bushfires</h2>
<p>In the decade since Victoria’s Black Saturday fires, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-has-australia-learned-from-black-saturday-111245">we have improved</a> fire predictions, night-time aerial firefighting, construction codes and emergency warnings. All of these have no doubt saved many lives.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-has-australia-learned-from-black-saturday-111245">What has Australia learned from Black Saturday?</a>
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<p>There are calls for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/scott-morrison-rejects-calls-for-more-help-saying-volunteer-firefighters-want-to-be-there">more resources</a> to fight fires, as part of a coordinated national plan. But few people have proposed an all-encompassing vision of such a plan.</p>
<p>For a start, it should not be confined solely to bushfires. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901114000999">Far more people die</a> during heatwaves and residential housefires. Tropical cyclones, floods and hail each <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609406">cost our economy more</a>.</p>
<p>Any plan must provide a strategic vision across these various facets for at least the next ten to 20 years.</p>
<h2>A national firefighting force?</h2>
<p>Calls for a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/11/former-fire-and-emergency-chiefs-push-for-national-bushfire-emergency-summit">national firefighting force</a> to supplement existing state resources are fundamentally short-sighted. A national force – quite apart from the level of duplication it would create – would spend much of its time idle. </p>
<p>Even during severe fires, such as those now raging, there would be limits to its usefulness. At a certain point, the size and energy of the fires means no amount of firefighting technology will extinguish them all. </p>
<p>Research conducted by Risk Frontiers, the Australian National University and Macquarie University through the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, has focused on better planning and preparedness for catastrophic events. </p>
<p>This research concludes it is <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/catastrophic">unrealistic</a> to resource the emergency management sector for rare but truly catastrophic events. It is wildly expensive to remain 100% prepared for the worst-case scenario. </p>
<p>Instead of simply scaling up existing arrangements, we need to think differently.</p>
<p>Bush firefighting could be improved by innovation and research. Future investments must focus on rapidly detecting and extinguishing ignitions before they spread out of control. </p>
<h2>Everyone is responsible</h2>
<p>States and territories are traditionally responsible for emergency management in Australia. But almost by definition, a catastrophic disaster exceeds one’s capacity to cope - inevitably drawing on nationwide resources. </p>
<p>This means preparing for catastrophic disasters is everyone’s responsibility. </p>
<p>Existing plans allow for assistance across state borders, and between state and federal governments. But there is no national emergency legislation defining the Commonwealth’s role, or assigning responsibility for responding to a truly national disaster. </p>
<p>The Australian Defence Force has a well-defined support role in natural disasters, but should not be relied on due to its global commitments.</p>
<p>However, resource-sharing between states could benefit from more investment in programs that enable emergency services to work better together. </p>
<p>International help in massive emergencies also needs better planning, particularly around timing and integration with local agencies.</p>
<p>Non-government organisations, businesses and communities already make valuable contributions, but could play a more central role. We could look to the US, which successfully uses a whole-of-community approach.</p>
<p>This might mean emergency services help community organisation provide aid or carry out rescues, rather than do it themselves. These organisations are also best placed to make sure <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-makes-homelessness-even-worse-heres-how-we-can-help-82758">vulnerable members of the community</a> are cared for.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-makes-homelessness-even-worse-heres-how-we-can-help-82758">Extreme weather makes homelessness even worse. Here's how we can help</a>
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<p>The most important task is to reduce the risk in the first place. The vast majority of disaster-related spending goes on recovery rather than risk reduction. Calls from the <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/disaster-funding#report">Productivity Commission</a> and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (<a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/67832">APRA</a>) for more disaster mitigation funding have been largely ignored.</p>
<p>The federal government’s recent <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-disaster-risk-reduction-framework.pdf">National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework</a> highlights the need to identify highest-priority disaster risks and mitigation opportunities. </p>
<p>This would see priority investments in flood mitigation and strengthening of buildings against cyclones in northern Australia. (This will also help address insurance affordability.)</p>
<p>Land-use planning needs to be improved to reduce the chance that future developments are exposed to unreasonable risks. </p>
<p>Infrastructure must be constructed to the highest standards and, following a disaster, <a href="https://theconversation.com/moving-grantham-relocating-flood-prone-towns-is-nothing-new-4878">destroyed buildings should be rebuilt away from dangerous areas</a>. </p>
<p>Finally, communities have the most critical role. We must understand our local risk and be ready to look after ourselves and each other. Governments at all levels must facilitate this spirit of self-reliance. Local leadership is crucial to any crisis plan and communities need to be involved in its construction.</p>
<p>Eastern Australia’s bushfire crisis has triggered emotional arguments for throwing resources at the problem. But planning must be careful and evidenced-based, taking into account the changing face of natural disasters. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-living-with-fire-and-facing-our-fears-128093">Friday essay: living with fire and facing our fears</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Gissing receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Eburn receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p>We don’t need to send in the army every time there’s a natural disaster, or create a national fire fighting force. We need to think practically about working together in emergencies.Andrew Gissing, General Manager, Risk Frontiers, Adjunct Fellow, Macquarie UniversityMichael Eburn, Associate Professor in Law, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1265742019-12-03T12:58:58Z2019-12-03T12:58:58ZInvasive grasses are fueling wildfires across the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303542/original/file-20191125-74572-19kgvz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3840%2C2160&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Burning invasive, nonnative grasses on federal land at Lower Table Rock, Oregon. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/zSrCNK">BLM</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Santa Ana winds that <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-fierce-fall-and-winter-winds-help-fuel-california-fires-106985">help drive fall and winter wildfires</a> in California have died down, providing welcome relief for residents. But other ecological factors contribute to fires in ways that scientists are still discovering. </p>
<p>I study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=XxDxepMAAAAJ&hl=en&authuser=1">how human actions affect fire regimes</a> – the patterns through which fires occur in a particular place over a specific time period. People alter these patterns by adding ignition sources, such as campfires or sparking power lines; suppressing fires when they develop; and introducing nonnative invasive plants.</p>
<p>My research suggests that nonnative invasive grasses may be fueling wildfires across the United States. Some fires are occurring in areas that rarely burn, like the Sonoran Desert and the semiarid shrublands of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Basin">Great Basin</a>, which covers most of Nevada and parts of five surrounding states. In the coming months, some of the grasses that help feed these blazes will germinate, producing tinder for future fires.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303569/original/file-20191125-74562-1l0i29g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303569/original/file-20191125-74562-1l0i29g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303569/original/file-20191125-74562-1l0i29g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303569/original/file-20191125-74562-1l0i29g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303569/original/file-20191125-74562-1l0i29g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303569/original/file-20191125-74562-1l0i29g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303569/original/file-20191125-74562-1l0i29g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303569/original/file-20191125-74562-1l0i29g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Great Basin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Basin#/media/File:Greatbasinmap.png">KMusser/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a recent study, I worked with colleagues at the University of Massachusetts and the University of Colorado to investigate how 12 nonnative invasive grass species <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1908253116">may be affecting regional fire regimes</a> across the U.S. We found that eight species could be increasing fire in ecosystems across the country.</p>
<h2>Altering historical fire patterns</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12064-010-0082-z">fire regime</a> is a way to describe fire over space and time or to characterize fire patterns. Understanding fire regimes can help make clear that fire is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-forests-rebounded-from-yellowstones-epic-1988-fires-and-why-that-could-be-harder-in-the-future-101495">natural and integral component of many ecosystems</a>. Knowing historical fire patterns also enables scientists to begin to understand when new or different patterns emerge. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.23.110192.000431">link between invasive grass and fire</a> is well established. Invasive grasses are novel fuels that can act as kindling in an ecosystem where readily flammable material might not otherwise be present. They can catch a spark that might otherwise have been inconsequential. </p>
<p>For example, in August 2019 the <a href="https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6541/">Mercer Fire</a> burned 25 acres in Arizona, scorching native desert plants, including iconic saguaro cacti. A much larger event, the 435,000-acre <a href="https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5899/">Martin Fire</a>, destroyed native sagebrush ecosystems in Nevada in July 2018. Invasive grasses helped fuel both fires.</p>
<p>Cheatgrass, which fueled the Martin Fire, is a well-studied invasive grass <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-017-1641-8">known to promote fire</a>. But many other invasive grass species have similar potential, and their roles in promoting fire have not been assessed at large scales.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WqeE4nfrZg0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How land managers are fighting invasive grasses across the Great Basin region of the West.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Introducing the suspects</h2>
<p>Researchers describe fire regimes in many ways. Our study focused on fire occurrence (whether or not fire occurred), frequency (how many times fires occurred) and size (the largest fire associated with a place) in 29 ecological regions across the U.S. For each location we tested whether invasive grasses were associated with differences in fire occurrence, frequency or size. </p>
<p>A nonnative invasive species typically comes from another continent, has become established, is spreading and has negative impacts. We used an online <a href="https://www.invasiveplantatlas.org/">Invasive Plant Atlas of the United States</a> as a starting point to determine which invasive grass species to investigate. </p>
<p>Next, we searched the scientific literature and the U.S. Forest Service’s <a href="https://www.feis-crs.org/feis/">Fire Effects Information System</a> to see whether there was reason to believe that any of the invasive grass species promoted fire. This process helped narrow our scope from 176 species to 12 that were suitable for our analysis. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1143611085645328386"}"></div></p>
<p>Who are these “dirty dozen,” and how did they get here? <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-buffelgrass?qt-news_science_products=3#qt-news_science_products">Buffelgrass</a> is native to Africa and was intentionally introduced to Arizona in the 1930s, probably for erosion control and forage. <a href="https://www.invasivespeciesinfo.gov/profile/japanese-stiltgrass">Japanese stiltgrass</a> and <a href="https://www.invasivespeciesinfo.gov/profile/cogongrass">cogongrass</a> are native to much of Asia and were introduced to the southeastern U.S. in the early 1900s, in some instances as packing material. <a href="https://plants.usda.gov/plantguide/pdf/pg_taca8.pdf">Medusahead</a>, which comes from Eurasia, was introduced to the western U.S. in the late 1800s, probably by accident as a contaminant in seed shipments. </p>
<p>The remaining eight species – <a href="https://www.invasivespeciesinfo.gov/profile/giant-reed">giant reed</a>, <a href="https://www.invasivespeciesinfo.gov/profile/common-reed">common reed</a>, silk reed, red brome, <a href="https://www.invasivespeciesinfo.gov/profile/downy-brome">cheatgrass</a>, Chinese silvergrass, Arabian schismus and common Mediterranean grass – have similar stories. People introduced them, sometimes accidentally and at other times intentionally, without an understanding of how they could impact their new settings.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303533/original/file-20191125-74572-1mdnbf8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303533/original/file-20191125-74572-1mdnbf8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303533/original/file-20191125-74572-1mdnbf8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303533/original/file-20191125-74572-1mdnbf8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303533/original/file-20191125-74572-1mdnbf8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303533/original/file-20191125-74572-1mdnbf8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303533/original/file-20191125-74572-1mdnbf8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303533/original/file-20191125-74572-1mdnbf8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cogongrass, which is invasive in the U.S. Southeast, may burn hot enough to kill native fire-adapted tree species.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.aces.edu/blog/topics/forestry-wildlife/cogongrass-management-faq/">Alabama Cooperative Extension System</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Big data for big questions</h2>
<p>Understanding how multiple species influence fire over many years at a national scale requires using <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/1540-9295-12.1.3">big data</a>. One person could not collect information on this scale working alone. </p>
<p>We relied on composite data sets that provided thousands of records of invasive grass occurrence and abundance across the country. Combining these records with <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/rds/archive/catalog/RDS-2013-0009.4">agency</a> and <a href="https://www.mtbs.gov/">satellite</a> fire records helped us determine whether fire occurrence, frequency or size were different in places with and without grass invasions. </p>
<p>We also used statistical models to assess whether human activities and ecological features could be driving observed differences between invaded and uninvaded areas. For example, it was possible that grass invasions were happening near roads, which are also linked with fire ignitions. By including roads with grass invasion in our statistical models, we can be more confident in the role invasive grasses could play in altering fire regimes.</p>
<p>Our results show that eight of the species we studied are associated with increases in fire occurrence. Six of these species are also linked to increases in fire frequency. Invasions seem to be affecting a variety of ecosystems, ranging from buffelgrass in the Sonoran Desert to Japanese stiltgrass in eastern U.S. forests to cogongrass in southeastern pine systems.</p>
<p>Our statistical models suggest that grass invasion, along with human activities, are likely affecting fire patterns in these ecosystems.</p>
<p>Surprisingly, none of the invasive grass species analyzed appeared to influence fire size. We interpret this result to mean that the areas we studied are seeing more of the same types of fires that already occur there, at least in terms of size.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303540/original/file-20191125-74562-ux4ix0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303540/original/file-20191125-74562-ux4ix0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303540/original/file-20191125-74562-ux4ix0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303540/original/file-20191125-74562-ux4ix0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303540/original/file-20191125-74562-ux4ix0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303540/original/file-20191125-74562-ux4ix0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303540/original/file-20191125-74562-ux4ix0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303540/original/file-20191125-74562-ux4ix0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dispersing seeds over a burned area of the 2015 Soda Fire in southwest Idaho to help stabilize soils and combat invasive weeds such as cheatgrass.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Wildfire-Strategy/c7ed71dd79ea486e97c152e2aba253f1/2/0">BLM via AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Factoring invasive grasses into fire planning</h2>
<p>People start an estimated <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114">84% of wildfires</a> in the U.S., with the rest ignited by lightning strikes. Studies show that climate change is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0178">increasing wildfire activity</a>.</p>
<p>With an understanding of interactions between invasive grasses and fire, agencies that handle either fire or invasive species may find opportunities to work together to control invasions that can lead to more frequent burns. Our research can also strengthen predictions of future fire risk by incorporating the presence of invasive grasses into fire risk models. </p>
<p>Although it sometimes may feel as though <a href="https://theconversation.com/california-wildfires-signal-the-arrival-of-a-planetary-fire-age-125972">the world is on fire</a>, this information can provide potential for remediation, and may help communities prepare more effectively for future wildfires.</p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Fusco receives funding from the National Science Foundation Geography and Spatial Sciences Program</span></em></p>Along with climate change and drought, invasive grasses are promoting wildfires across the US, even in areas that don’t normally burn.Emily Fusco, Postdoctoral Researcher, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1235532019-10-21T12:18:10Z2019-10-21T12:18:10ZWildfire rebuilding: Taxes are better than bans for keeping homeowners from rebuilding in fire-plagued areas<p><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/180-000-under-evacuation-two-major-wildfires-flank-california-n1072551">Almost 200,000 Californians</a> have been ordered to evacuate as ferocious winds drove several wildfires near Los Angeles, San Francisco and elsewhere. Many fear they may yet again return to a home ravaged by fire. </p>
<p>For Californians in fire-prone areas, this has been a perennial cycle. As a result, a growing number of residents in the state <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-wildfire-housing-rules-poll-20190618-story.html">want to ban people</a> from building in areas at greatest risk. </p>
<p>That’s because taxpayers bear the burden of protecting homes in dangerous areas when fire breaks out – and <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/145278/rebuild-homes-wildfire-zones">they often help foot the bill</a> when it’s time to rebuild. A recent assessment showed that <a href="https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-california-braces-for-new-wildfires-20190614-story.html">1 in 4 Californians</a> live in an area at “high risk” of wildfire. And people tend to want to rebuild in the same spot that was hit by a disaster. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=riTf2zAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">behavioral economist who studies the psychology of decision-making</a>, I try to understand people’s motivations before taking a position in a policy debate. I believe there’s a better way for policymakers to achieve the same goal of getting people to avoid building in disaster-prone areas without forcing people from their homes. </p>
<h2>A bird in the hand</h2>
<p>In behavioral economics, there’s something known as the endowment effect. </p>
<p>The endowment effect is basically the idea that people overvalue things they already own. And it helps explain the common and seemingly irrational desire of many homeowners to rebuild in places at great risk of wildfire, hurricanes or other natural disasters. </p>
<p>Behavioral economists Daniel Kahneman, Jack Knetsch and Richard Thaler <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937761">were the first to explain this effect</a> in 1990. They conducted an experiment in which half their subjects were given a coffee mug. They asked those subjects to name the lowest price at which they’d be willing to sell their mug. They then asked those without mugs how much they would be willing to pay to buy one.</p>
<p>Since the subjects who received a mug were randomly chosen, there should have been little difference between the selling and buying prices, which represent how each group valued the mug. </p>
<p>Instead, the researchers discovered a significant gap between two groups. The median selling price, representing the people who already had mugs, was US$5.79, more than double the $2.25 people were willing to pay. The conclusion is that someone with an item values it a lot more than someone who does not have it regardless of their actual preferences. </p>
<h2>Pigouvian taxes</h2>
<p>In the context of California wildfires or other natural disasters, the endowment effect says that someone who owns a damaged or destroyed home will have a strong preference for rebuilding over moving somewhere else. </p>
<p>To ignore this preference by putting an outright ban on rebuilding disregards the wishes of these people. It also squanders the potential impact of increased economic activity as a result of the new construction. Areas recovering from disaster are in great need of this kind of stimulus. </p>
<p>At the same time, I don’t think we should stand idly by and watch people continue to build homes in disaster zones. Such an approach creates an unfair burden for the state, which spends a significant amount of money providing disaster relief to affected areas.</p>
<p>Rather, my view – which is <a href="https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-economics/chapter/government-policy-options/">common among economists</a> – is that the best policy when an activity imposes costs on society is to create a pricing system that pushes those costs back onto the individuals responsible. </p>
<p>With fuel for gas-guzzling vehicles, for example, the best policy is a tax equal to the cost that the pollution causes for society – this is how <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/carbon-price-457">carbon pricing works</a>. Such taxes are called <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/pigouvian-tax-definition-and-examples-4157479">Pigouvian taxes</a> after economist Arthur Pigou, who developed the concept of “externalities” – or the unrelated side effects of some economic activity.</p>
<p>In the case of disaster zones, municipal property taxes need to reflect the additional costs of public services like disaster relief that are often provided by state and federal authorities. Governments can then use the extra revenue to finance disaster mitigation efforts or other initiatives in the public interest.</p>
<p>The key thing is that the tax creates a disincentive to engage in the undesirable activity short of an outright ban. And <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/On-the-Economics-of-a-Carbon-Tax-for-the-United-States.pdf">research shows</a> these kinds of taxes are effective. </p>
<h2>A softer approach</h2>
<p>A challenge with the implementation of such a policy is that it is hard to assess the costs of relief in advance.</p>
<p>However, the insurance industry <a href="https://www.bcg.com/en-us/industries/insurance/risk-management-insurance-industry.aspx">is very good</a> at risk and cost assessment, and governments can use their methods to achieve the right pricing mechanism. The additional property taxes that would result would make living in disaster-prone areas more costly – and some people would certainly be willing to bear this burden – but this is what society needs in order to reduce the activity. </p>
<p>This softer approach, which could achieve the same ends as a heavy-handed ban, is a much better way to create a financial incentive for people to avoid rebuilding in dangerous parts of the country – saving taxpayer dollars and avoiding the inconvenience of preemptive blackouts like <a href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/think-californias-preemptive-blackouts-are-scary-buckl-1838912490">we’ve seen recently in California</a>.</p>
<p><em>This story, which was originally published on Oct. 21, was updated with details of the latest wildfires.</em> </p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123553/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some Californians want to ban people from living in wildfire-prone areas. Behavioral economics offers a less heavy-handed approach to reducing the costs and risks.Alexander Smith, Associate Professor of Economics, Worcester Polytechnic InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1242752019-09-27T02:08:01Z2019-09-27T02:08:01ZLessons for a destabilising planet: insights from the 2009 South Pacific earthquake-tsunami disaster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294470/original/file-20190926-51401-1onj5kr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The South Pacific was rocked by two nearly simultaneous earthquakes and a devastating tsunami.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Tamara McLean</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just before 7am on September 29, 2009, a <a href="https://www-nature-com.ezproxy1.library.usyd.edu.au/articles/nature09214">magnitude 8</a> earthquake struck the sea floor in the central South Pacific, about 190kms south of Samoa. It was exactly the sort of earthquake – in fact, it was two <a href="https://www-nature-com.ezproxy1.library.usyd.edu.au/articles/nature09292">almost simultaneous quakes</a> – that create devastating tsunami.</p>
<p>The Earth’s crust tore apart, triggering a region-wide tsunami. Within minutes it inundated Samoa’s coastline, before rolling on to American Samoa and Tonga. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-after-an-earthquake-how-does-a-tsunami-happen-83732">Explainer: after an earthquake, how does a tsunami happen?</a>
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</em>
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<p>While a tsunami warning was issued by the <a href="https://ptwc.weather.gov/">Pacific Tsunami Warning Center</a> and relayed by Samoan officials, it was not rebroadcast everywhere. Regardless, the tsunami arrived too quickly for many to escape. In Samoa, 189 people died when the tsunami reached up to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Samoa_earthquake_and_tsunami">14 metres above normal sea level</a> and many more were injured across the region. Hundreds of millions of dollars of damage was done.</p>
<p>Ten years on from this tragedy, it’s time to look back at the lessons we learned – and how they can help us adapt to a rapidly changing climate, which is making similar natural disasters more and more likely.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Location of earthquake shown by yellow star in South Pacific south of Samoa (Source: USGS)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A new approach to post-disaster research</h2>
<p>As is common after a major disaster, Samoa’s government and emergency services quickly began <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2010.01185.x">assessing the damage and the needs of affected communities</a>, to direct relief and recovery efforts. The government did an excellent job given the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-006-9001-5">logistical challenges</a> that face small island developing states after such events.</p>
<p>It is also common for researchers from a wide range of disciplines, from earth sciences to engineering to health studies, to visit impacted areas to study the causes and effects of such disasters, and make suggestions to improve future disaster management planning and practice.</p>
<p>Such researcher-led field reconnaissance surveys are usually small, comprising just a few individual researchers and usually from the same discipline. These expeditions are quickly organised, and the researchers get in and out fast – too often focused on their own interests, and not working with the government or scientists of the affected country. This means serious ethical issues can arise. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-waves-the-tsunami-risk-in-australia-60623">Making waves: the tsunami risk in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>After this earthquake and tsunami, I thought we could do better. </p>
<p>I proposed bringing incoming researchers from multiple disciplines, to collaborate with local communities and Samoan researchers and officials. This proposal was accepted, and I was quickly appointed to head up what became the largest ever <a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=2055&Itemid=2376&lang=en">international post-tsunami survey team</a>.</p>
<p>Our <a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=2070&Itemid=2388">team</a> ended up comprising nearly 200 local and international participants working in multidisciplinary teams for up to a month between October and November 2009. </p>
<p>Critically, for the first time, the team negotiated between incoming scientists with specific questions, and local scientists and the government to ensure their research really did benefit Samoan communities.</p>
<p>As team leader, I reported daily to the prime minister and King of Samoa updating them on research findings, gave local TV and radio interviews on how things were going and worked with researchers to nudge field activity in directions that benefited everyone. </p>
<p>At the end of the survey the team provided a report to the prime minister and government on our findings. This set a new global benchmark for how post-disaster surveys could be done.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A boy looks through the wreckage of a Samoan village after the 2009 tsunami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Miller/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The lessons we learned</h2>
<p>As a consequence of this approach, I was appointed by the United Nations to co-lead a global working group that rewrote the handbook on how <a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/images/stories/itst_tsunami_survey/survey_documents/field_survey_guide/ITST_FieldSurveyGuide_229456E.pdf">post-disaster surveys should be organised and operated</a>.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/earth-science-reviews/vol/107/issue/1">learned so much</a> from the Samoan survey team, and from continuing research efforts over the last ten years following other major disasters such as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami">2011 Japan earthquake-tsunami</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Haiyan">2013 Philippines Typhoon Haiyan</a> disasters. Key lessons include that:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>geological studies show us these large hazard events occur much more frequently than we realised before</p></li>
<li><p>natural ecosystems on which humans depend exhibit both great vulnerability and resilience to the forces of nature, but human management of those ecosystems really affects resilience</p></li>
<li><p>different types of buildings experience damage and destruction in different ways. This knowledge can be used in land use zoning and improving building codes and design standards</p></li>
<li><p>despite continuing public education campaigns about natural hazards and disasters, individuals, families and communities still don’t always do what emergency management agencies want them to do (for example, evacuate to high ground if you feel a strong earthquake at the coast)</p></li>
<li><p>human beings are the most remarkable of species – capable of incredible resilience and generosity in the aftermath of disasters</p></li>
<li><p>there is still so much we do not understand about natural hazards and disasters</p></li>
<li><p>as a global community, we must work hard to reduce inequality which makes too many people vulnerable to disasters, and rise to the challenge presented by human-induced climate change.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Future disasters on a rapidly changing planet</h2>
<p><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters">Disasters are on the rise</a> and climate change will only make things much worse. Earth is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a">destabilising rapidly</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Climate change</a> (coupled with <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/annualreport/2018/index.php#cover">environmental degradation</a> and an <a href="https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/population/index.html">increasing population</a> which increases exposure to hazard events) are driving more frequent and intense disasters. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-are-natural-disasters-on-the-rise-39232">Explainer: are natural disasters on the rise?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In fact, according to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, weather and climate related disasters have more than <a href="https://www.unisdr.org/">doubled over the last 40 years</a>. They have <a href="https://www.unisdr.org/we/advocate/climate-change">said</a>, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>90% of recorded major disasters caused by natural hazards from 1995 to 2015 were linked to climate and weather including floods, storms, heatwaves and drought.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of people affected by disasters of different types between 1998 and 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.unisdr.org/">UNISDR</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A heart wrenching factor is the poorest people around the world always bear the greatest burden of loss to natural disasters due to <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/61119">inequality and poverty</a>. Layered on top of the particular vulnerability of poorer people to disasters, global statistics show the Asian region experiences the most disasters of all types.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Occurrence of different types of disasters by regions. Cylinders show the percentage of each particular disaster in a given region in relation to the whole world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0169555X02000831?token=519E6E8A21B04AEF9004BA6F70F7E4251F378B079CA64DB465737FB037E0B5E9C9FD781C04F8814EA96C9234DCD3F6AB">Alcantara-Ayala, 2002</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Earth is unique, dynamic, fragile and dangerous. Human activity is driving changes that, if not addressed soon, will result in disasters in the near future that are outside our experience and capacity to cope with.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124275/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dale Dominey-Howes receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Disaster Mitigation Program and the Global Resilience Partnership. </span></em></p>A devastating quake and tsunami in the Pacific Ocean prompted a new kind of post-disaster research. Ten years on, we need these lessons to prepare for a precarious future.Dale Dominey-Howes, Professor of Hazards and Disaster Risk Sciences, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1227422019-09-13T10:50:30Z2019-09-13T10:50:30ZVolcanoes kill more people long after they first erupt – those deaths are avoidable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291175/original/file-20190905-175673-as6x77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=34%2C0%2C3888%2C2584&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Montserrat's Soufriere Hills Volcano erupts in 2009.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jonathan Stone</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>You may think of volcanic eruptions as spectacular but brief explosions. But in reality, these destructive forces wreak havoc before headlines are made and continue long after they fade. As <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00205/full">our new research shows</a>, it is the drawn-out nature of volcanic eruptions that can be most fatal – and understanding why is the key to saving lives.</p>
<p>Most commonly, volcanoes will emit pulses of gas and solids for <a href="https://volcano.si.edu/">six to seven weeks</a>, with quiet fizzling and rumbling punctuated by more intensive bouts of activity. Some go on for years and even decades. The recent fatal <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/03/volcano-erupts-in-italian-island-of-stromboli">explosion in the Italian island of Stromboli</a> is part of an eruptive sequence <a href="https://volcano.si.edu/">that officially began in 1934</a>) but stretches back millennia – the Romans referred to the island as the <a href="https://earth.esa.int/web/earth-watching/historical-views/content/-/article/stromboli-volcano">“lighthouse” of the Mediterranean</a>). </p>
<p>But despite this sustained risk, many who live within the reach of volatile volcanoes choose to stay in high hazard zones during an eruption, risking their lives. <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00205/full">Studies report</a> that between 15 and 85% of evacuated populations revisit dangerous areas while warnings are still in place.</p>
<p>However, research examining why so many choose to do so is limited. To better understand how to protect lives and livelihoods in the wake of eruptions, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00205/full">we investigated</a> the impacts of past eruptions on the communities around volcanoes with a three-pronged approach.</p>
<p>Reporting on what happens to entire populations during eruptions can be a bit patchy, but what is usually well covered is when people died and where and what they were doing. We examined the circumstances of human deaths from all eruptions globally with available data over a 30-year period. We also conducted detailed interviews with people who had experienced prolonged volcanic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Finally, we compiled and analysed existing case studies of communities affected by recent eruptions, to understand the relevant data they had uncovered.</p>
<p>Data on deaths showed that where warnings were in place, about 75% of the fatalities happened inside a zone where people had been asked to to leave, or stay away from. More than 90% of these were people who were either protecting their assets or engaged in activities that contributed to their livelihoods – farming for instance. More than 70% of all fatalities happened a week or more after the initial eruption, despite warnings being in place.</p>
<p>Interviews gave us more insight into the pressures that might have led to those risky decisions. Most people who chose to return to evacuation zones were aware of the risks, but pressures to protect livelihoods and well-being override those considerations. Many returned to look after property, animals or crops. Some people simply wanted to protect and be with their community and seek solace in their home. Few just returned out of curiosity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292056/original/file-20190911-190012-12lbb9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292056/original/file-20190911-190012-12lbb9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292056/original/file-20190911-190012-12lbb9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292056/original/file-20190911-190012-12lbb9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292056/original/file-20190911-190012-12lbb9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292056/original/file-20190911-190012-12lbb9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292056/original/file-20190911-190012-12lbb9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many return to volcano exclusion zones to look after property, animals or crops.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dedi Sinuhaji/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Difficult conditions in evacuation shelters also contribute. After the Soufrière Hills Volcano on Montserrat <a href="https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=360050#bgvn_199506">began to erupt in 1995</a>, some people lived for months in refuges where supplies of fresh vegetables were in short supply. By 1997, some were returning to the evacuated zone to tend to crops in an attempt to provide for not only their families but others too. In June of that year, <a href="https://mem.lyellcollection.org/content/21/1/211.short">19 people died</a> during an upsurge in activity in the exclusion zone.</p>
<h2>Saving lives and livelihoods</h2>
<p>What ours and and the other studies we analysed show is that promoting awareness of the sustained risks of volcanoes is a good start, but it’s not enough to ensure people’s safety. Evacuation strategies also need to find ways of minimising long-term impacts on livelihoods and well-being – especially when they last for more than a few days. For example, authorities could provide alternative pasture for animals, or ensure market prices don’t fall if they have to sell them.</p>
<p>Allowing populations at risk to anticipate sudden changes in activity would also be helpful. The better we can <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/volcano-monitoring-jindal/">forecast sudden upsurges</a> in activity, the less disruption there will be to affected populations. Scientists are hopeful that <a href="https://eos.org/science-updates/working-together-toward-better-volcanic-forecasting">new technologies</a> such as drones, space-based monitoring and better micro-analyis of erupted rocks will soon allow us to better detect when unrest turns to more violent eruptions and, just as importantly, when a volcano will settle for a longer period of time. Improving communication networks in at-risk areas is also crucial for improved forecasting to be useful.</p>
<p>Of course, most important of all is that strategies are designed by working collaboratively with and for communities at risk. There are already some wonderful examples where scientists, authorities and communities collaborate to share and rapidly transmit information when activity changes. For example, <a href="https://appliedvolc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13617-015-0025-y">at Tungurahua in Ecuador</a>, “watchers” have direct radio contact with the local observatory and are trusted members of their community. This network <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016302849">enabled populations to respond rapidly</a> when the volcano started generating pyroclastic flows between 2006 and 2014. </p>
<p>All of this applies not just to volcanoes, but other protracted hazards such as flooding, coastal erosion and landslides too – many of which we will face with increased frequency in the future. By truly understanding and addressing what drives people to return to dangerous zones, and helping them anticipate times of extreme risk, we can save countless lives and countless more livelihoods.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jenni Barclay receives funding from The UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Economic and Social Research Council, the Arts and Humanities Research Council, the Global Challenges Research Fund and the Royal Society. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Few receives funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC), the British Academy and the Royal Society. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Teresa Armijos B. receives funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Arts and Humanities Research Council and the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF). </span></em></p>Many return to dangerous evacuation zones fully understanding the risks. New research explains why.Jenni Barclay, Professor of Volcanology, University of East AngliaRoger Few, Professorial Research Fellow in Environment, Risk and Development, University of East AngliaTeresa Armijos Burneo, Lecturer in Natural Resources and International Development, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.