tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/nikki-haley-18136/articlesNikki Haley – The Conversation2024-03-12T12:30:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254342024-03-12T12:30:55Z2024-03-12T12:30:55ZYes, sexism among Republican voters helped sink Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580810/original/file-20240309-28-5iqh5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C12%2C8194%2C5475&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump supporters drive by a rally for Nikki Haley on Feb.1, 2024, in Columbia, S.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flag-festooned-truck-in-support-of-former-president-donald-news-photo/1978923483?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Following multiple defeats in the Republican presidential primary, including in <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/25/politics/nikki-haley-south-carolina-loss/index.html">her home state</a> of South Carolina, Nikki Haley <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/haley-out-speech-transcript.html">suspended her bid</a> for the Republican presidential nomination on March 6, 2024.</p>
<p>Barring unforeseen events, Donald Trump will be the GOP candidate in November’s election.</p>
<p>Haley’s failure to pose a more serious challenge to Trump may be puzzling to some. After all, she was <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/14/nikki-haley-2024-bio-what-you-need-to-know-00082742">a formidable candidate with notable political experience</a> in both federal and state government. She had outlasted prominent Republican officials, including <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ron-desantis-250c8ed4b49843350e258f0c2754c8ba">Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis</a>, former <a href="https://apnews.com/article/christie-presidential-race-5e974cfa407d39af878f066a71af35ad">New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tim-scott-drops-out-2024-race-b9cc8fbeba57a123789d8d0484164e38#:%7E:text=COLUMBIA%2C%20S.C.%20(AP)%20%E2%80%94,in%20Iowa's%20leadoff%20GOP%20caucuses.">South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott</a>, in the GOP primary.</p>
<p>And Trump has serious political liabilities. Although he is wildly popular among Republican primary voters, Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/donald-trump-primary-wins.html">support is much weaker among likely general election voters</a>. Trump’s unpopularity served as <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/11/09/nation/vote-counting-drags-signs-trumpisms-drag-red-wave/">a drag on Republicans’ performance</a> in the 2018 midterm elections, likely cost him a winnable presidential election in 2020 and contributed to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/trump-candidates-underperform-2022/">Republicans’ underperformance in the 2022 midterms</a>.</p>
<p>He also faces indictments on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/trump-charges-jan-6-classified-documents/">91 state and federal charges</a> ranging from plotting to overturn the 2020 election to withholding classified documents in his home in Florida. And observers, <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5107004/haley-targets-biden-trumps-age-vows-stay-race">including Haley</a>, have raised serious questions about his age, physical fitness and mental acuity.</p>
<p>Given her strengths and Trump’s vulnerabilities, why did Haley’s primary campaign fall flat? Of course, part of the reason is Trump’s unique appeal with Republican primary voters. Over the past eight years, Trump has forged a distinctive bond with his voters that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/16/politics/trump-supporters-indictments-mug-shot/index">leads them to overlook</a> his significant political weaknesses. </p>
<p>But sexism is also an important part of the explanation.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three people standing on a stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580811/original/file-20240309-28-wu4gfm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Nikki Haley, left, outlasted many strong GOP primary candidates, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidates-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1705066202?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Trump’s history of sexism</h2>
<p>Back in 2016, Trump frequently <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/10/23/498878356/sexism-is-out-in-the-open-in-the-2016-campaign-that-may-have-been-inevitable">made sexist remarks</a> directed at Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. He called her a “nasty woman,” said she does not have the “presidential look” and contended that Clinton was “playing the woman card.” </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.12737">Research shows</a> that voters with more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-018-9468-2">sexist</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfy003">attitudes</a> were more likely to support Trump in 2016. </p>
<p>Eight years later, Trump employed a similar sexist playbook, questioning Haley’s qualifications, commenting on her appearance, characterizing her as “<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-ramps-attacks-overly-ambitious-haley-potential-2024-gop-rivals">overly ambitious</a>” and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/12/politics/nikki-haley-husband-trump-attack/index.html">mocking her</a> for having an absentee husband. Haley’s husband is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/us/politics/nikki-haley-husband-michael.html">in the South Carolina National Guard</a> and currently deployed overseas.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OfgJBywAAAAJ&hl=en">We are</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OsXHylAAAAAJ&hl=en">political</a> <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/people/adam-eichen">scientists who</a> <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/research/umass-poll">field and analyze public opinion</a> surveys to better understand Americans’ attitudes. Using evidence from our recent <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/January2024NationalPollAllToplines.pdf">national poll</a>, we can examine how sexism influenced Republicans’ preferences in the 2024 Republican primary. </p>
<p>We first asked Republican respondents whom they would favor in the Republican presidential primary. Next, we measured sexist attitudes by asking respondents a series of questions about their prejudice, resentment and animus toward women. These attitudes are collectively known as “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/abs/optimizing-the-measurement-of-sexism-in-political-surveys/58A96CD10C45B2BFE66B585CAEB200F2">hostile sexism</a>.” We also collected information about Republicans’ demographic characteristics, political attitudes and beliefs about the economy.</p>
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<h2>Familiar foe of sexism in the electorate</h2>
<p>We find that individuals who supported Trump display much higher levels of sexism than those who favored Haley. Only 27% of Haley supporters agreed with the statement that “women seek to gain power by getting control over men,” but 38% of Trump voters agreed.</p>
<p>Likewise, when asked whether “women are too easily offended,” 52% of Trump supporters agreed, while 42% of those supporting Haley did so.</p>
<p>Finally, when provided with the prompt that “women exaggerate problems they have at work,” 37% of Trump voters agreed while only 25% of Haley voters expressed this view.</p>
<p>Next, we undertook an analysis that examined how sexist attitudes related to support for Trump relative to Haley, while taking into account demographic characteristics, political identities and views on the national economy.</p>
<p>This analysis confirmed that, even after taking into account these factors, individuals with more sexist attitudes were more likely to favor Trump over Haley.</p>
<p>In her challenge to Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, Haley, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/politics-and-gender/article/hostile-sexism-benevolent-sexism-and-american-elections/F47B3070DF5182CDE9EEBF2BE26E6FB9">like female candidates across the partisan divide</a>, contended with the familiar foe of sexism in the electorate. </p>
<p>While much is uncertain about the upcoming election, the nation will almost certainly continue to wait for its first female president.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Given her strengths and Donald Trump’s vulnerabilities, why did Nikki Haley fail to seriously challenge Trump’s dominant position in the GOP primaries? Sexism is part of the answer.Tatishe Nteta, Provost Professor of Political Science and Director of the UMass Amherst Poll, UMass AmherstAdam Eichen, PhD Student, Political Science, UMass AmherstJesse Rhodes, Associate Professor, Political Science, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241462024-03-06T05:05:42Z2024-03-06T05:05:42ZDonald Trump’s third presidential nomination has never been in doubt. He’s made an art of political survival<p>Donald Trump’s political obituary has been written many times. His dominant performance in the Super Tuesday Republican primaries marks one more instance of him outlasting those who counted him out.</p>
<p>While Trump has yet to officially clinch the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential contest, his near-sweep of the Super Tuesday primaries indicates there’s no further electoral pathway for Nikki Haley, his last remaining GOP challenger.</p>
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<p>Since Trump first ran for the presidency in 2015, there have been many moments that could have ended his political career, including: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>the 2016 release of the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/infamous-access-hollywood-tape-admissible-trumps-hush-money/story?id=107813993">Access Hollywood tape</a> in which he appeared to brag about sexually assaulting women</p></li>
<li><p>his antagonism towards <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/trump-attacks-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured-120317">war hero John McCain</a> in 2015 and <a href="https://www.reed.senate.gov/news/releases/reed-trump-has-disparaged-fallen-us-soldiers-and-gold-star-families-on-the-record">the families of slain American soldiers</a> and disabled veterans</p></li>
<li><p>his comments after the Charlottesville “Unite the Right” rally in 2017 when he said there were “<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-defends-2017-fine-people-comments-calls-robert/story?id=62653478">very fine people</a>” among a group of white supremacists</p></li>
<li><p>his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/18/us/politics/trump-impeached.html">first impeachment</a> in 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress</p></li>
<li><p>his handling of the COVID pandemic, which <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-20/coronavirus-united-states-records-400000-covid-19-deaths/13071960">killed 400,000 Americans</a> while he was in office</p></li>
<li><p>and his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden, which led, most notably, to charges that he incited the January 6 Capitol insurrection – and his second impeachment.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The latter stands out, in particular, because many observers thought Trump’s political career was over after January 6, 2021. This was particularly true for Republican elites who may have publicly praised Trump while he was in office, but privately longed for his departure from public life.</p>
<p>Even one of the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2018/10/25/mitch-mcconnell-is-one-great-senate-leaders-all-time/">shrewdest</a> congressional leaders of the last century, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, could not foresee the ironclad grasp that Trump would maintain over the Republican Party for nearly a decade. </p>
<p>Indeed, McConnell and <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?507698-15/senator-graham-capitol-security-breach-arizona-objection">other</a> <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/recording-captures-mccarthy-saying-he-would-urge-trump-to-resign">Republicans</a> <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2021-02-14/read-mcconnell-speech-after-trumps-impeachment-trial-acquittal">lambasted</a> Trump after the 2021 insurrection, but ultimately decided not to vote to convict him in the second impeachment trial over his conduct on January 6. The reason: they <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/25/trump-mcconnell-january-6-book/">assumed</a> Trump’s departure from politics was a foregone conclusion. </p>
<p>A vote to convict him, Republicans appear to have concluded, would not only be redundant because Trump was never expected to return to prominence, but would also cause unnecessary damage to their own political careers.</p>
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<h2>Why Trump is winning the GOP nomination again</h2>
<p>Trump’s departure from the White House in 2021 and time out of office brought yet another opportunity for his detractors to perform hasty last rites for his political prospects. </p>
<p>For example, many of the Republican candidates he endorsed in the 2022 midterm elections <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/numbers-trump-backed-candidates-fared-midterms-rcna61524">performed poorly</a>, contributing to one of the GOP’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/10/republican-losses-2022-midterms/">worst midterm performances</a> in modern history. </p>
<p>This led many Republican and conservative elites to conclude that irrespective of any moral objections to Trump, he was an <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-is-the-gops-biggest-loser-midterm-elections-senate-house-congress-republicans-11668034869">electoral loser</a> who merited abandonment. </p>
<p>Many conservatives pivoted to Florida Governor <a href="https://nypost.com/cover/november-9-2022/">Ron DeSantis</a> as the heir apparent to the former president. Others pined for South Carolina Senator Tim Scott or Haley, a former UN ambassador and governor, as the next face of the Republican Party.</p>
<p>But ultimately none of these potential successors was able to garner anywhere close to the support of the former president. Haley’s lacklustre performance on Super Tuesday is one more clear piece of evidence of that.</p>
<p>Tellingly, nearly all of Trump’s GOP rivals in 2024 have – at one point or another – warmly endorsed him, denounced the criminal indictments against him, and even <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/amazing-part-republican-debate-candidates-back-trump-convicted/story?id=102590110">pledged</a> to support his 2024 campaign regardless of whether he is convicted.</p>
<p>It should come as no surprise, then, that despite short periods of opposition to Trump – such as Haley’s <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/31/politics/haley-criticism-trump-breakfast-club/index.html">increasingly direct attacks</a> on his mental acuity and her <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/03/03/nikki-haley-donald-trump-republican-party-rnc">shifting attitude</a> on whether she will still endorse him – his approval among Republicans has never seriously wavered. </p>
<p>Very <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/24/mitt-romney-trump-rise-00123096">few</a> <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/11/chris-christie-donald-trump-attacks">GOP leaders</a> have been willing to go on the record with their criticisms of him – and not <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4383307-graham-backtracks-on-earlier-jan-6-criticism-of-trump-it-depends-on-what-the-conduct-is/">walk it back later</a>. </p>
<p>Indeed, since Trump’s election in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx">2016</a> <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/r/">through</a> to <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/r/">today</a>, his aggregate approval rating among Republicans has rarely dipped below 74% despite – or perhaps because – he is currently facing <a href="https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/trumps-91-criminal-charges-and-where-they-stand/">91 separate criminal charges</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-faces-half-a-billion-dollars-of-debt-and-several-court-cases-but-that-may-not-stop-him-from-becoming-president-again-223813">Donald Trump faces half a billion dollars of debt and several court cases. But that may not stop him from becoming president again</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Views of Trump remain largely unchanged</h2>
<p>As much as Trump’s platform and positions may have changed over the course of three presidential campaigns, there has been strikingly little difference in the candidate himself. To the chagrin of his detractors – and the delight of his supporters – his time in the White House did not change him. </p>
<p>And his time out of the White House does not appear to have changed him or the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/07/21/little-change-in-americans-views-of-trump-over-the-past-year/">public’s view of him, either</a>.</p>
<p>Trump’s opponents assumed scandals that would doom the political careers of conventional politicians would also doom him. On the contrary, the scandals have in many ways only emboldened Trump’s base. His famous mugshot was paraded by both Trump’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/08/28/1195903555/mug-shots-politicians-trump-supporters-social-media">supporters</a> (as evidence of what they believe is a politicised justice system) and his <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4171081-democrats-gloat-over-trumps-mug-shot-we-got-you/">detractors</a> (as evidence of what they believe is Trump’s criminal behaviour). </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/should-world-leaders-worry-about-another-trump-presidency-224245">Should world leaders worry about another Trump presidency?</a>
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</em>
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<p>Trump is unlike any other politician in modern American history. His political resilience with GOP voters makes clear the country is in the midst of a historical change to party alignments. No longer will low taxes and business-friendly, Ronald Reagan-inspired policies work for Republican politicians. </p>
<p>Indeed it’s not clear that even policies themselves are what his supporters want as much as <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/12/14/in-gop-contest-trump-supporters-stand-out-for-dislike-of-compromise/">a fighter</a> with whom they can identify. The Super Tuesday results show Haley is not that person to most Republicans. </p>
<p>Yet, while Trump’s supporters remain fiercely loyal, the Biden campaign is hoping the polarising former president activates the diverse “Never Trump” coalition even more. </p>
<p>Biden has famously <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/04/30/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner/">said</a> “don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative”. Biden is now hoping the alternative in the 2024 presidential election is a man who energises a base of “Never Trumpers” just big enough to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/25/937248659/president-elect-biden-hits-80-million-votes-in-year-of-record-turnout">tip the scale by a few thousands votes in swing states</a>. Haley’s losses today increase that likelihood.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224146/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jared Mondschein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The former president’s political obituary has been written many times over the past decade. Yet his support among Republicans has rarely dipped below 70%.Jared Mondschein, Director of Research, US Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246062024-03-04T13:35:59Z2024-03-04T13:35:59ZNikki Haley, hanging on through Super Tuesday, says Trump is weak because he’s not getting as many votes as he should − she’s wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579021/original/file-20240229-28-zcbvn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C33%2C5589%2C3709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of GOP candidate Nikki Haley react as former President Donald Trump gives an acceptance speech during a primary election night party on Feb. 24, 2024, in Charleston, S.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-news-photo/2028796747?adppopup=true">Sean Rayford/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nikki Haley has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/us/politics/haley-not-dropping-out.html">refused to drop out</a> of the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination despite significant losses to Donald Trump in Iowa, New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina. Haley has tried to cast the race in an especially favorable light: As essentially an incumbent, Trump should be near-unanimously supported, but he hasn’t been – so she should keep on fighting. </p>
<p>Haley has made several versions of this argument: </p>
<p>• After finishing third behind Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucuses, Haley saw enough hope to declare the contest a “<a href="https://thehill.com/elections/4411329-haley-iowa-two-person-race-trump-2024/">two-person race</a>” – to incredulous ears. </p>
<p>• After coming in 11 points behind Trump in New Hampshire, an <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/23/nikki-haley-trump-new-hampshire-chance">unusually hospitable</a> state to her in ideology and temperament, a Haley spokesperson characterized Trump’s win as “<a href="https://www.wcvb.com/article/angry-rant-filled-with-grievances-nikki-haleys-campaign-says-of-donald-trumps-new-hampshire-primary-speech/46516280">not exactly a ringing endorsement</a> for a former president.” </p>
<p>• After getting just under 40% of the vote in her home state to Trump’s 60%, Haley again framed the result as more disappointing for Trump than for herself, stressing that “Trump as, technically, the Republican incumbent <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nikki-haley-argues-trump-40-primary-voters-clue/story?id=107561624">did not win 40%</a> of the vote.”</p>
<p>I’m a political scientist, and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hADRzMwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I have studied</a> Trump’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12414">2016 campaign</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12630">his administration</a> as well as the <a href="https://www.ketv.com/article/uno-political-scientist-discusses-impact-of-desantis-dropping-out-on-presidential-race/46480904">Haley challenge</a>. I don’t buy Haley’s rationale for holding on.</p>
<p>As the two candidates face Super Tuesday, the biggest day of primary voting across the nation, Trump is not the weak candidate Haley would like him to be.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in suits on a stage standing behind individual lecterns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford in a televised presidential debate during the 1976 election. Carter beat Ford and became 39th president.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/james-jimmy-carter-and-gerald-ford-taking-part-in-the-first-news-photo/113494342?adppopup=true">Universal History Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No comparison</h2>
<p>Haley’s claim that Trump’s early victories reveal some type of weakness hinges on comparing Trump with real incumbents running for reelection, who are indeed usually unopposed within their party. Think <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/democrats-replace-biden.html">the Biden reelection campaign</a> and <a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-republican-nomination/">Trump’s own in 2020</a>.</p>
<p>But this comparison is unreasonable: Trump’s not a real incumbent and should not be compared with one.</p>
<p>To see how well Trump’s doing, an appropriate comparison pits Trump against previous one-term presidents running for a nonconsecutive second term against the incumbents who defeated them – Gerald Ford in 1980 against President Jimmy Carter, Carter in 1984 against President Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush in 1996 against President Bill Clinton.</p>
<p>See what today’s situation has in common with these precedents? </p>
<p>Nothing. They never happened. </p>
<p>And that’s because these former presidents would have had little chance of getting nominated by a party that had moved on after their loss. So they chose not to run at all.</p>
<h2>Lose, then retreat</h2>
<p>Carter never seriously entertained a presidential run in 1984 against Reagan, to whom he had lost in <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1980_Election/">a 44-state landslide</a> in 1980. Even before 1980, observers <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=ziBaAAAAIBAJ&lpg=PA3&dq=jimmy%20carter%201984&pg=PA3#v=onepage&q=jimmy%20carter%201984&f=false">foretold Carter’s loss of support</a> among Democrats in 1984, saying “it is very doubtful the party will give him another shot” if he lost in 1980. After he did lose, Carter <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1982/05/11/us/carter-backs-mondale-for-presidency-in-1984.html">threw his support</a> behind his vice president, Walter Mondale. Against Mondale, Reagan would deliver an even bigger, <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1984_Election/">49-state landslide</a>.</p>
<p>George H.W. Bush in 1996 is a similar story. After losing to Clinton in 1992, he <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/bush/campaigns-and-elections">left office embittered</a> and would not recover politically. It was evidently <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=AUcyAAAAIBAJ&lpg=PA10&dq=george%20hw%20bush%201996&pg=PA10#v=onepage&q=george%20hw%20bush%201996&f=false">someone else’s turn</a> to run for president, as the party moved on to Bob Dole in 1996 and to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/04/us/republicans-overview-bush-accepting-gop-nomination-pledges-use-these-good-times.html">Bush’s own son</a>, George W. Bush, just four years later.</p>
<p>Of these might-have, could-have bids for a return to the presidency, Ford’s came closest to reality, partly owing to his <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/gerald-fords-unique-role-in-american-history">unique circumstances</a>. </p>
<p>Ford became president because of Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974. That happened not long after Nixon <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/40-years-ago-gerald-ford-becomes-president-in-a-historic-first">picked Ford to replace</a> Vice President Spiro Agnew, who resigned in 1973. Ford had not had a chance to run on his own terms. In a sense, his 1976 defeat was less conclusive in ending his political life than those of Carter and Bush, making his revival more plausible.</p>
<p>Still, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1978/09/29/stumping-ford-unlikely-to-run-in-80/00b6f0c4-6e1b-415d-a615-2aa4093aa01a/">discouragement</a> from the former president’s own inner circle dampened his flirtations with a 1980 run.</p>
<h2>Wishful thinking?</h2>
<p>The big picture: Voters are generally <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/three-time-presidential-candidate-romney-stassen-115000/">unwilling to give</a> a candidate a second chance to run against someone who already defeated them once – a reason that <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/one-way-trump-fighting-history-election-losers-usually-lose-rematch-rcna117883">presidential rematches are so rare</a>.</p>
<p>Trump is proving to be an exception. He lost reelection in 2020, is running again in 2024 against the same president who beat him and is comfortably marching toward nomination a third time in a row. There’s no modern precedent for this, and it attests to his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/us/politics/trump-iowa-win-voters.html">enduring and extraordinary strength</a> within his party. </p>
<p>To be fair, one thing makes Trump’s rationale for a re-run more compelling than Ford in 1980, Carter in 1984 and Bush in 1996: Many Trump supporters <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-think-2020-election-illegitimate/index.html">don’t believe he lost</a> legitimately to Biden in 2020 in the first place, making them think he is somehow deserving of another chance. But that’s precisely part of Trump’s strength.</p>
<p>So, why does Haley talk of Trump’s weakness? </p>
<p>It’s a mix of a few things. She needs to project confidence and justify soldiering on to voters, donors and herself. She’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746">hoping for miracles</a> in upcoming contests. She could be <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2024/02/20/nikki-haleys-long-game-00142314">ambitious for 2028</a> and beyond. </p>
<p>It’s also just wishful thinking.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Huchen Liu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nikki Haley claims Donald Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent and should be doing much better against her than he is. That’s wishful thinking, says a political scientist.Huchen Liu, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236872024-02-23T13:50:32Z2024-02-23T13:50:32ZThe South Carolina primary is likely to reveal the eventual Republican presidential nominee - 3 points to understand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577433/original/file-20240222-18-pk1fxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C50%2C6738%2C4155&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters listen to Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley speak at a campaign event in Beaufort, S.C., on Feb. 21, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-listen-to-us-republican-presidential-hopeful-and-news-photo/2021281681?adppopup=true">Julia Nikhinson /AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Former President Donald Trump is set to face off against former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in her home state in the Republican primary on Feb. 24, 2024.</em> </p>
<p><em>While Trump overwhelmingly beat Haley in both the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary in early 2024, Haley has said she is determined to stay in the race, even if she <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68351923#">loses in South Carolina</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>But even though Haley’s return to South Carolina will be a homecoming, she has long had a complicated, and not always friendly, relationship with the politics and people of South Carolina. And there’s strong evidence that Haley is trailing Trump heading into the state’s primary.</em> </p>
<p><em>The Conversation U.S. spoke with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Ii7Jx5cAAAAJ&hl=en">Kendra Stewart</a>, a scholar of public administration and South Carolina politics at the College of Charleston, to better understand the lay of the land and implications of the South Carolina primary. Here are three important points to understand:</em> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A series of blue lawn placards that say 'Trump' in white writing stand outside of a small brick building, which also has a Trump flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577435/original/file-20240222-16-l7oqwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Campaign signs for former President Donald Trump are displayed outside a local politician’s office in Columbia, S.C., on Feb. 22, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/campaign-signs-for-former-president-donald-trump-outside-an-news-photo/2022534512?adppopup=true">Sean Rayford/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. The South Carolina primary offers strong clues about the general election</h2>
<p>This primary can be a really important indicator for the rest of the election. South Carolina is a solid red state. It has often been said that however the South Carolina primary goes is generally how the rest of the Republican primaries will go. It’s generally been very predictive of which Republican candidate actually wins the primary. The one exception for this is when South Carolina picked <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20120122-usa-2012-presidential-elections-republican-primary-gingrich-wins-south-carolina-primary-upsets-romney">Newt Gingrich</a> over Mitt Romney in 2012, and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Mitt_Romney">Mitt Romney went on</a> to win the overall Republican nomination. </p>
<p>South Carolina is the first primary in the South and the first primary in a state that has some racial diversity, which is more relevant to the Democratic Party, but still important. Since the South mostly votes as a block in modern presidential races, the Republican Party is always interested in nominating a candidate that will secure its base – and South Carolina is a good predictor as to how the rest of the South will vote. </p>
<h2>2. One of the candidates – Nikki Haley – is a former South Carolina governor</h2>
<p>Generally, you would anticipate that a candidate running in his or her home state would have an advantage in an election. But in this case, Haley is <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/20/exclusive-poll-donald-trump-nikki-haley-south-carolina/72656833007/">definitely the underdog</a>. In general, Haley was not overwhelmingly popular in South Carolina even when she was governor from 2011 through 2017. She has framed herself as an outsider candidate, which is of course what Trump has done, as well. </p>
<p>A lot of Haley’s support in South Carolina is not from the Republican establishment. When she ran for governor the <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128018612">first time in 2010</a>, she ran against a number of key, establishment Republican politicians and beat them all. While she was in office, she was not someone who lined up with the Republican Party in South Carolina on many issues. She was a governor who believed in small government and minimal spending, which often led to conflict with state legislators who were trying to bring projects home to their districts. Haley’s biggest buck to the South Carolina Republican Party was when <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/15/nikki-haley-confederate-flag-timeline/">she led the charge to take down the Confederate flag</a> from the statehouse grounds. This was an issue that was very connected to the identity of the Republican Party and led to a previous governor – <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/events-and-awards/profile-in-courage-award/award-recipients/david-beasley-2003#:%7E:text=Political%20observers%20believe%20bitterness%20over,for%20re%2Delection%20in%201998.">David Beasley</a> – losing his reelection when he came out against flying the flag. </p>
<p>A big part of what made Haley an outsider in South Carolina politics is that she is a woman. In many ways, South Carolina was still a good ol’ boy system while she was in office, and she was not one of them. Haley didn’t conform to what a lot of people think of as the standard for politicians. South Carolina has always been near the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-sister-senators-tamekia-isaac-devine-09d514a323b524830d4c12ee90612d36">bottom of the list</a> for the number of women elected to political office because of a political culture based on traditional gender roles. </p>
<p>Generally, Haley has very much downplayed the fact that she was the first female governor of South Carolina, as well as the gender discrimination that women generally face in politics. She is an extremely savvy politician and realizes that these issues do not have broad appeal in South Carolina.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A tall, slim woman wears a long sleeve button down shirt and fancy pants and stands on a stage at twilight, with people in the crowd and palm trees in the distance. There are several American flags on the stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577434/original/file-20240222-30-ouhnup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign event in Beaufort, S.C., a few days before the state’s primary.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-hopeful-and-former-un-ambassador-news-photo/2021281149?adppopup=true">Julia Nikhinson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>3. South Carolina has an open primary</h2>
<p>In South Carolina, you don’t select a political party when you register to vote – you just register as a South Carolina citizen. <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/state-primary-election-types">A closed primary</a> means that you can only vote in the primary of the party for which you are a member. </p>
<p>South Carolina’s open primary system creates a lot of flexibility when it comes to voting. The only registered voters who couldn’t participate in the state’s Republican primary are those who already voted in the Democratic primary. The South Carolina <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/south-carolina-democratic-primary-results-rcna136236">Democratic primary</a>, on Feb. 3, had very low turnout. In 2020, four times as many people turned out to vote during this primary. To me, this says there are a lot of eligible voters – who typically don’t vote Republican – who might come out for the upcoming Republican primary. </p>
<p>I do think a good number of these people will turn out for the primary to vote against Trump, which would be a vote for Haley. The question is, will this be enough voters to change the primary’s outcome? I think this is highly unlikely.</p>
<p>One last point to remember is that the polling that is taking place in South Carolina is mostly focused on people who have voted in a past Republican primary. When polling predictions are wrong, it is almost always because the poll samples did not reflect the people who actually turned out. My assumption is that there are a fair number of Democrats and independents who are going to cast a ballot but who are not being polled because they traditionally do not vote in Republican primaries. Because of this, I think Haley’s support is going to be a little higher than polls are predicting. This could be enough to keep her momentum going.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223687/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kendra Stewart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Nikki Haley trails Donald Trump in polling ahead of the South Carolina primary, the estimates don’t capture the Democrats and independents who are also able to vote in the Republican primary.Kendra Stewart, Professor of political science and public administration, College of CharlestonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226742024-02-22T17:26:20Z2024-02-22T17:26:20ZUS election: Haley’s supporters believe radically different things to Trump. So where do they go next?<p>Republican primaries are shedding light on how voters perceive the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s election as president in 2020. The attitudes being revealed may shape the 2024 presidential race as well as the future of American democracy. </p>
<p>Recent polling suggests people who voted for Trump are much more likely to believe that Joe Biden was not legitimately elected president than voters for Trump’s Republican rival, Nikki Haley. Entrance <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/15/poll-majority-iowa-gop-caucus-goers-dont-believe-biden-legitimately-won-2020/">poll</a> results from the Iowa primary revealed that 69% of the voters who did not believe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election supported Trump. In contrast, 53% of Republican voters who believe Biden’s presidency is legitimate supported Haley. </p>
<p>Ahead of the South Carolina primary on February 24, other <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/c0339271-ea79-4d9d-8617-6d43492b37f8.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_2">polling</a> suggests that 57% of Republican voters believe Biden’s presidency is illegitimate, and 85% of those voters support Trump. Some 70% of those who believe Biden won the election “fair and square” support Haley.</p>
<p>According to recent national <a href="https://www.prri.org/research/threats-to-american-democracy-ahead-of-an-unprecedented-presidential-election/">polling</a>, 32% of Americans, and 63% of Republicans, continue to believe the <a href="https://protectdemocracy.org/work/what-is-the-big-lie/">“big lie”</a> that the 2020 election was stolen by Biden and the Democrats. Importantly, these beliefs persist although the 2020 election was one of the <a href="https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/news/joint-statement-elections-infrastructure-government-coordinating-council-election">most secure in US history</a> with no evidence of widespread voter fraud. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, former president Trump – the probable Republican nominee for the 2024 election – continues to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-2024-election-lies-voter-fraud-biden-f3f3691c2ea0667ad694e3bee577d802">push</a> the big lie as a key part of his campaign. </p>
<p>The US Supreme Court has long <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/299/353">emphasised</a> the importance of freedom of speech and of the media in ensuring that the government is responsive to the will of the people. The court views an informed populace as <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/297/233/">“the most potent of all restraints upon misgovernment”</a>. These principles “ensure the security of the Republic”, and the very <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/376/254/">foundation of constitutional government</a>.</p>
<p>It is important not to overstate the significance of polls, but they may be revealing something important about what the American public is thinking in the lead up to the 2024 election. </p>
<p>And whatever is being revealed directly relates to the fundamental principles highlighted by the Supreme Court. Namely, voting patterns and recent polls imply that a significant portion of Republican voters distrust the American electoral system and continue to believe the Democrats “stole” the 2020 election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-senate-passes-us-95-billion-aid-package-for-ukraine-what-this-tells-us-about-republican-support-for-trump-223502">US Senate passes US$95 billion aid package for Ukraine – what this tells us about Republican support for Trump</a>
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<p>Of particular concern is the question of how the American public can hold a leader to account when that leader is lying to them about the integrity of their democracy, and, significantly, so many believe him? </p>
<p>Trump is leading <a href="https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker">Haley in the polls</a> and is regarded as the presumptive Republican nominee is. This is a matter of grave concern for those who believe in the foundational principles of American democracy, and its institutions, and are worried about creeping authoritarianism. </p>
<p>For instance, one poll suggests that nearly half of Republicans want a leader who is willing to <a href="https://www.prri.org/research/threats-to-american-democracy-ahead-of-an-unprecedented-presidential-election/">break some rules</a> “if that’s what it takes to set things right”, and that 23% of all Americans believe that there is a need to resort to violence “in order to save our country”.</p>
<h2>What happens next?</h2>
<p>Trump’s de facto leadership of the Republican party was evident in his instrumental role in persuading <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-kill-border-bill-sign-trumps-strength-mcconnells-waning-in-rcna137477">Republican represenatives</a> not to back a recent bipartisan immigration and foreign aid bill, which included aid for Ukraine and tougher controls at the Mexican border. </p>
<p>This forced Democrats to strip Ukraine aid out into a separate bill, which has <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/19/politics/senate-vote-ukraine-aid-package/index.html">now passed the Senate</a>. The bill’s fate <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/senate-passes-95-billion-aid-package-for-ukraine-and-israel-fate-uncertain-in-house">in the House</a>, however, remains uncertain due to Trump loyalists. </p>
<p>Trump’s intervention came after months of good-faith negotiations between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate. Indeed, Republicans would have gained much of what they sought in terms of border security reforms. It is reasonable to assume that Trump’s influence over the party will continue to increase in the run-up to the 2024 election. </p>
<p>Trump faces <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-biden-impeachment-south-carolina-b2496854.html">91 felony charges</a> (some of which relate to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election) and civil liability for sexual assault and defamation, all of which he denies. </p>
<p>However, these challenges have not reduced his popularity among the Republican base. We also know from recent <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2024/01/01/dec-14-18-2023-washington-post-university-maryland-poll/">polling </a> that Republicans are now more sympathetic to those who participated in the January 6 attack on the Capitol, than they were three years ago. They are also more likely to absolve Trump of responsibility relating to the attack. </p>
<p>If Trump’s status changes from presumptive to actual Republican nominee, the question will be whether Haley supporters will shift their allegiance to Trump (despite some radically different beliefs), choose a third party candidate, choose Biden or simply decide not to vote. The decisions of Haley supporters may have significant consequences not only for the 2024 election, but also for the health of American democracy. </p>
<p>For these reasons, the differences between Trump and Haley voters and why they matter warrant much more attention.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222674/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eliza Bechtold does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nikki Haley’s supporters are much more likely to believe that Joe Biden won the 2020 fairly than those of Donald Trump.Eliza Bechtold, Lecturer, School of Law, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225812024-02-20T13:18:50Z2024-02-20T13:18:50ZNikki Haley insists she can lose South Carolina and still get the nomination – but that would defy history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573600/original/file-20240205-27-tyvqqr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C5862%2C3920&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nikki Haley greets supporters at a campaign stop in Aiken, S.C., on Feb. 5, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-hopeful-and-former-un-ambassador-news-photo/1981166875?adppopup=true">Allison Joyce /AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former South Carolina governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, a Republican, has lost the first four presidential primary contests, but has <a href="https://apnews.com/article/haley-campaign-fight-trump-gop-nominee-donors-b8baa05cfece94e86066cf0c47bed83c">vowed to stay in the race</a> for the foreseeable future. Haley seems to be counting on support from her home state of South Carolina to put her in a more competitive position against former President Donald J. Trump. </p>
<p>Political science gives Haley <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/H/Home-Field-Advantage">a good reason to bank on doing well in South Carolina</a>. For one thing, a candidate has naturally higher name recognition in their home state after having built a career and reputation there. Voters have gotten to know them and their record of achievement, and the candidate knows the culture of the state and its political pressure points. </p>
<p>Shared ties in a state are also a meaningful identity that strengthens connections with voters based on trust. Being an out-of-towner, on the other hand, can make you seem out-of-touch. <a href="https://theconversation.com/dr-oz-should-be-worried-voters-punish-carpetbaggers-and-new-research-shows-why-188569">Just ask Dr. Oz</a>, whose many gaffes during his 2022 campaign for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania highlighted his deep roots in neighboring New Jersey.</p>
<p>These conditions can add up to a <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/H/Home-Field-Advantage">big electoral advantage</a> that Haley might be counting on in South Carolina.</p>
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<p>Unfortunately for Haley, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/">every single poll</a> of her home state’s voters conducted over the past two months has Trump ahead of her by more than 20 points. She <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/haley-argues-win-south-carolina-claim-victory/story?id=106880487">recently argued</a> that it doesn’t matter if she doesn’t win South Carolina, as long as she closes “the gap” with Trump. </p>
<p>But if she does lose her home state, does she still have any shot at the nomination? The historical data reveal that the answer is an emphatic “no.”</p>
<h2>Data: Haley is in trouble</h2>
<p>I collected election results for both parties’ presidential primaries for each election year from 1992 to 2020. I then compared the percentage of the vote they received in their home state’s primary with the average they received in other states’ primaries held slightly before or on the same day as their home state. </p>
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<p>First, every eventual nominee in this time period performed at least as well, if not better in their home state’s primary than in other comparable primaries. Even Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who were historically unpopular candidates in 2016, followed this trend. The same is true for <a href="https://youarehere.substack.com/p/do-presidential-candidates-get-home">nearly all</a> of the major presidential primary candidates during this time.</p>
<p>The data also tell us that, in the history of the modern presidential primary, since 1972, there has not been a single eventual nominee from either party who did not win their home state.</p>
<p>In this sense, Haley winning the nomination without her home state would be literally unprecedented.</p>
<p>Of course, Haley might have other outcomes in mind. Even if she remains a consistent second-place finisher in the primaries, she could wait in the wings for the nomination if Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigations-civil-criminal.html">legal difficulties</a> prevent him from serving in some way. </p>
<p>But the evidence says that winning the nomination outright will be next to impossible for Haley without first winning the primary in her home state.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A presidential candidate’s ‘home state advantage’ should help them win a primary, which then bodes well for how they do in successive contests. But if they lose their home state, they’re in trouble.Charlie Hunt, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208142024-02-02T16:09:17Z2024-02-02T16:09:17ZBiden is campaigning against the Lost Cause and the ‘poison’ of white supremacy in South Carolina<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569668/original/file-20240116-17-rcsaui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=580%2C210%2C7662%2C5265&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden at Mother Emanuel AME Church in South Carolina on Jan. 8, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-waits-to-speak-next-to-south-carolina-news-photo/1910415169?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the blur of breaking news, one of President Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/08/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-political-event-charleston-sc/">first speeches</a> of the 2024 campaign was given in South Carolina and has already been mostly forgotten in the ongoing coverage of the state’s democratic primary on Feb. 3, 2024.</p>
<p>We should pay it more attention.</p>
<p>The site of the speech on Jan. 8, 2024, was Charleston, South Carolina’s Mother Emanuel AME Church, where, on a summer evening in 2015, an avowed white supremacist murdered nine Black worshipers, including <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/18/politics/south-carolina-church-shooting-clementa-pinckney/index.html">Rev. Clementa Pinckney</a>, the church’s pastor and a state representative. At Pinckney’s funeral, then-<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IN05jVNBs64">President Barack Obama</a> sang a heart-felt version of the Christian hymn <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/ihas.200149085/">Amazing Grace</a>.</p>
<p>From the pulpit, Biden sounded like a preacher. </p>
<p>“The word of God was pierced by bullets in hate and rage, propelled by not just gunpowder but by a poison,” <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/08/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-political-event-charleston-sc/">Biden said</a>. “A poison that’s for too long haunted this nation. What is that poison? White supremacy. … Throughout our history, it’s ripped this nation apart.”</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://joseph-kelly.com">historian who studies democracy in the American South</a>, I am doing research for a book on free speech, lying and fascism in America during the 1920s and 1930s. What I have learned is that Biden’s Mother Emanuel speech should rank with some of the most important speeches in our history.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Joe Biden speaks at Mother Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, South Carolina.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>The original big lie</h2>
<p>In 1820, 44 years after the nation’s birth, U.S. Sen. <a href="https://www.scencyclopedia.org/sce/entries/smith-william/">William Smith</a> of South Carolina was the first to claim in Congress that men were not created equal. Boldly rejecting the Declaration of Independence as effusive “enthusiasm,” Smith injected white supremacy into public discourse.</p>
<p>It spread like wildfire, and there’s little wonder. Smith, who owned several plantations and at least 71 enslaved people, was among more than <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/interactive/2022/congress-slaveowners-names-list/?itid=sf_local_dont-miss-brights_p004_f001">1,800 U.S. legislators</a> who enslaved Black people. </p>
<p>Southern propagandists rewrote history, arguing the founders never really believed in equality. If you disagreed, vigilante thugs would beat you up or chase you into exile. They killed more than a few people who spoke up against slavery.</p>
<h2>‘A house divided against itself cannot stand’</h2>
<p>The Supreme Court’s infamous 1857 decision in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1850-1900/60us393">Dred Scott v. Sandford</a> extended Southern racist ideology into the North. Black people, the court held, are “so far inferior that they had no rights which the white man was bound to respect, and … the negro might justly and lawfully be reduced to slavery.”</p>
<p>The following year, in his campaign for the U. S. Senate, Abraham Lincoln sounded the alarm. He addressed the consequences of slavery on America’s democracy and warned that “<a href="https://www.nps.gov/liho/learn/historyculture/housedivided.htm">a house divided against itself cannot stand</a>.” </p>
<p>“This government cannot endure,” he said, “permanently half slave and half free. It will become all one thing, or all the other. Either the opponents of slavery will arrest the further spread of it … or its advocates will push it forward till it shall become alike lawful in all the States, old as well as new, North as well as South.”</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="In this black-and-white photograph, a white man dressed in a dark suit sits in a chair with his hands on his lap." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569676/original/file-20240116-15-ho7zat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An 1860 portrait of Abraham Lincoln.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/abraham-lincoln-may-20-1860-salted-paper-print-from-glass-news-photo/1215985241?adppopup=true">Sepia Times/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The Civil War was supposed to end slavery and the white supremacist ideology that underpinned it. The <a href="https://guides.loc.gov/13th-amendment">13th</a>, <a href="https://guides.loc.gov/14th-amendment">14th</a> and <a href="https://guides.loc.gov/15th-amendment">15th Amendments</a>, known as the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/tpt/slavery-by-another-name/themes/reconstruction-amendments/">Reconstruction amendments</a>, made equality explicit in the Constitution, extending civil and political rights to newly freed African Americans. </p>
<p>That upended the Southern social order.</p>
<p>The South then invented what Biden called the “<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2024-01-08/biden-links-trump-election-denialism-confederate-lost-cause">self-serving lie</a>” of the “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/growing-up-in-the-shadow-of-the-confederacy/537501/">Lost Cause</a>,” the rewritten version of the Civil War that claims <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/19th_century/csa_csa.asp">slavery</a> had nothing to do with the war. The white supremacist group Ku Klux Klan was <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/ku-klux-klan">the violent hammer</a> of this “Lost Cause,” and its emergence coincided with <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/freedom-riders-jim-crow-laws/">Jim Crow laws</a> that established racial segregation across the South and disenfranchised Black voters until the 1960s.</p>
<h2>Democracies in peril</h2>
<p>In his State of the Union address on Jan. 6, 1941, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt sounded a new alarm. His “<a href="https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/fdr-the-four-freedoms-speech-text/">Four Freedoms</a>” speech was an updated version of Lincoln’s and further defined freedom within a democracy.</p>
<p>The immediate issue was whether the U.S. should help England and other European allies defend against the <a href="https://www.historians.org/about-aha-and-membership/aha-history-and-archives/gi-roundtable-series/pamphlets/em-18-what-is-the-future-of-italy-(1945)/the-rise-and-fall-of-fascism">fascist regimes</a> of German Nazi leader Adolf Hitler and Italian dictator Benito Mussolini.</p>
<p>This was no academic question of foreign policy. In helping Britain, President Roosevelt stated, the United States was fighting for the universal freedoms that all people possessed: freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom from want and freedom from fear.</p>
<p>Biden has rung a similiar alarm. During his speech at Mother Emanuel church – and again during other campaign stops before the <a href="https://www.usvotefoundation.org/south-carolina-election-dates-and-deadlines">Feb. 3 Democratic Party primary in South Carolina</a> – Biden acknowledged that he is not only running against the GOP front-runner Donald Trump but also against a “second lost cause” myth. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=360t4mRmPcA">Biden called out Trump</a> for his “big lie” about the 2020 election that Trump has repeatedly claim was “rigged” against him. He criticized those who he said are attempting to “steal history” again and spin <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67889403">the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection</a> as “a peaceful protest.” </p>
<p>At its core, Biden warned, Trump’s campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” is a resurrection of southern-style white nationalism and the age-old disregard for equal rights. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.instagram.com/joebiden/reel/C1x2_oVt0cg/">We all know who Donald Trump is</a>,” Biden said during his speech and in his ads, calling on Americans to work to make up for centuries of racism and discrimination “The question we have to answer is who are we?”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220814/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Patrick Kelly volunteers for the Charleston County (SC) Democratic Party. </span></em></p>During a campaign speech in South Carolina, President Biden made it clear that he is not only running against Donald Trump but also against white supremacy.Joseph Patrick Kelly, Professor of Literature and Director of Irish and Irish American Studies, College of CharlestonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210112024-01-22T20:18:30Z2024-01-22T20:18:30ZWhy New Hampshire and Iowa don’t make sense as the opening rounds of presidential campaigns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569408/original/file-20240115-224994-2eqxn5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5973%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nikki Haley in a crush of reporters after filing paperwork to enter the New Hampshire primary, Oct. 13, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1733696158?adppopup=true">Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/desantis-iowa-caucuses-election-2024-b41c967b94fda070dfb70dfb1bdcfa44">Iowa</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/new-hampshire-primary-date-secretary-state-scanlan-552decd9c90f1e434d4141ad44bc1322">New Hampshire</a> have long been the first states to hold presidential contests in election years. </p>
<p>But should they go first? </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=FeSk64QAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientist who studies Congress and elections</a>, I know that this largely unquestioned influence of the two states raises serious concerns around fairness, diversity and political representation. Here they are:</p>
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<h2>They don’t represent the country</h2>
<p>White, non-Hispanic residents make up <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/IA">84%</a> and <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/NH/PST045222">89%</a> of Iowa and New Hampshire respectively, compared with just <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045223">58%</a> of the nation as a whole. Iowa and New Hampshire are not representative of the U.S., particularly on the basis of race. </p>
<p>This matters because the presidency is a national office that affects everyone. Because of the boost in <a href="https://rollcall.com/2024/01/10/iowa-vs-new-hampshire-which-matters-more-in-predicting-presidential-nominees/">political momentum</a>, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1532673X9101900103">media coverage</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15377857.2011.540189">donations</a> that a win in Iowa or New Hampshire can provide, their choices have a bigger effect on the race than most other states. Candidates recognize this and campaign accordingly: <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/busy-campaign-schedule-save-trumps-gop-primary-opponents/story?id=106292772">Nearly 80% of all Republican candidates’ events</a> through mid-January 2024 had taken place in Iowa and New Hampshire. </p>
<h2>Staggering the primaries isn’t fair</h2>
<p>American elections are carried out by a <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/election-administration-at-state-and-local-levels">decentralized system</a>. States and parties choose to hold primary elections at different times throughout an election year leading up to the party conventions. </p>
<p>Even if Iowa and New Hampshire were a perfect demographic mirror of the country, the process would still be unfair to states that don’t vote early. In almost all modern cases, the primaries in both major parties have been all but wrapped up by April, leaving dozens of states that had not yet held primaries essentially without a voice in the process. </p>
<p>In the 2020 Democratic primary, for example, Joe Biden’s main rival – <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/08/bernie-sanders-suspends-his-presidential-campaign-175137">Sen. Bernie Sanders – suspended his campaign</a> before 26 states and territories had even held their contests.</p>
<p>Later states might have a kind of information advantage. For example, some states will likely have the benefit of seeing the outcomes of some of Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigations-civil-criminal.html">many legal cases</a>, while Iowa and New Hampshire voters will not.</p>
<p>But this advantage cuts both ways. Voters in later-voting states often don’t even see the same slate of candidates on their ballot as Iowans do. Now that Gov. Ron DeSantis has suspended his campaign, most of the country’s voters will never have gotten a chance to weigh in on him. </p>
<h2>What are the alternatives?</h2>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">After Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 South Carolina primary, Democrats moved that state’s 2024 primary to an earlier date.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Different, more diverse states could go first on the primary calendar. For example, frontloading bigger states like California, Illinois or Texas would certainly bring a broader swath of voters into the mix; but it also would make person-to-person campaigning more difficult. It’s also politically fraught: Democrats moved South Carolina earlier in their own primaries in 2024, but it was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/us/politics/iowa-new-hampshire-democrats.html">perceived by many</a> as a move to boost incumbent Biden, who lost Iowa and New Hampshire in the 2020 primaries, but won South Carolina.</p>
<p>A more substantial reform could create a single primary election day for all states – how the U.S. does every other election in this country. </p>
<p>Small states would surely dislike this reform: By the current method of staggering elections, these states can shine individually, rather than get lost in the mix of larger states with more voters and delegates. Staggered primaries might also help voters get to know the candidates on a more intimate basis, and political science says voters think of politics <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-020-09592-8">in personal terms</a>. </p>
<p>But the current cost – essentially disenfranchising people in later-voting states – might not be worth it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two states that are not representative of the US, particularly in terms of race, have outsize influence in the presidential campaign.Charlie Hunt, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215512024-01-22T13:31:51Z2024-01-22T13:31:51ZNew Hampshire voting doesn’t look like other states − here’s why that matters for the Republican primary<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570399/original/file-20240119-19-k20she.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Campaign signs sit in the snow along a highway in Concord, N.H., on Jan. 18, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/campaign-signs-alongside-the-highway-in-concord-new-news-photo/1935914491?adppopup=true">Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>There isn’t the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/19/new-hampshire-primary-bust-00136525">usual frenzy</a> that New Hampshire voters are used to in the days leading up to the presidential primary, which this year takes place on Jan. 23, 2024.</em> </p>
<p><em>But even without the traditional debates between candidates and back-to-back public appearances by candidates, voters are still being inundated with advertising, including by mail, explains <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AEdvQqwAAAAJ&hl=en">Dante Scala</a>, a political science scholar and expert on elections at the University of New Hampshire. Voters there understand the particular significance of their participation in the first primary of the election season, Scala said.</em> </p>
<p><em>The voter makeup in New Hampshire has some unique aspects, Scala explained in an interview with The Conversation. This is the main factor that could shift the expected results of Tuesday night’s election.</em> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570400/original/file-20240119-17-qtjmd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person sits on the floor of a hotel hallway with a red hat that says USA in white and an upside down campaign banner that says 'Live free or die.' People, some also wearing red hats, walk nearby him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570400/original/file-20240119-17-qtjmd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570400/original/file-20240119-17-qtjmd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570400/original/file-20240119-17-qtjmd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570400/original/file-20240119-17-qtjmd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570400/original/file-20240119-17-qtjmd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570400/original/file-20240119-17-qtjmd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570400/original/file-20240119-17-qtjmd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leave a campaign rally in Portsmouth, N.H., on Jan. 17, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-republican-presidential-candidate-and-former-news-photo/1941350554?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Every four years, the national media descends on New Hampshire. What do they get wrong about the state’s voters?</h2>
<p>The chief misconception is media outlets tend to group undeclared voters with independent voters. Voter registration works differently in different states. In New Hampshire, <a href="https://www.sos.nh.gov/elections/frequently-asked-questions/voting-party-primaries">you can register</a> as a Democrat, Republican or an undeclared voter. Undeclared means that you are undeclared toward either party, Democrat or Republican. Undeclared voters make up the largest portion of the New Hampshire electorate. </p>
<p>What polling reveals is that a lot of undeclared voters are really partisans. They behave as partisans, their voting patterns are partisan – except for the fact that they choose not to declare as such on the voter rolls. </p>
<p>Political campaigns will aid and abet that perception, saying that their candidates will be very popular here because their strategy includes reaching independent voters. That kind of strategy goes back decades. </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/18/us/politics/nikki-haley-nh-independents.html">true independents here</a>, but they are a minority of those undeclared voters.</p>
<h2>What is the purpose of registering as an undeclared voter?</h2>
<p>They are the free agents of New Hampshire politics. People might want to be discrete about their political identity. It also allows them more freedom. </p>
<p>As an undeclared voter, I could go to the polls and ask for either a Democrat or a Republican ballot and can essentially become part of either party for the five minutes it takes me to vote. I can then fill out a form that then reverts me back to undeclared status. </p>
<p>Right now, former South Carolina Gov. <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-hampshire/">Nikki Haley is losing</a> badly to former president Donald Trump <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/18/new-hampshire-nikki-haley-battle-00136196">among Republican voters</a> in New Hampshire. She is hoping that a lot of the undeclared voters show up and vote for her.</p>
<h2>Do undeclared voters make polling less accurate in New Hampshire?</h2>
<p>Even at the last minute, there can be volatility in turnout and voter preferences. The best example of that is in 2008, when there was a Democratic presidential primary debate just before the New Hampshire primary. Famously, a panelist asked Hillary Clinton about her likability. Clinton answered, and then candidate Barack Obama interjected, saying, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiYyYHbh-qDAxUTFlkFHZMRDXIQwqsBegQIDhAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com%2Fvideo%2F2013%2F01%2Fobamas-likable-enough-moment-with-hillary-009551&usg=AOvVaw1YsY2fpTRIlkPxz6r1Ob6w&opi=89978449">“You’re likable enough.”</a> </p>
<p>That became the stuff of legend. Women voters in New Hampshire felt that Obama’s remark was condescending to a female candidate, and there was backlash against Obama. Who’s to say what really moved the vote, but <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiZl-Lkh-qDAxWGF1kFHXdVB3IQFnoECA4QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Felections%2F2016%2Fresults%2Fnew-hampshire-president-clinton-trump&usg=AOvVaw2JEMmVecZn17ryJTXjT0pE&opi=89978449">Clinton won in New Hampshire</a>.</p>
<p>There can be a lot of last-minute volatility in a primary that polling might not catch. </p>
<p>To me, it feels as though the undeclared voters are the only flipping point in this election. Republicans, and especially conservative Republicans, make up a majority of the electorate here – there are a lot of moderates, but conservatives outnumber them. And current polling suggests, over and over, that conservative voters have made up their minds.</p>
<p>The flipping point could be an unexpectedly high turnout of undeclared voters, as well as independent voters and Democrats, registered as undeclared, who participate in the primary because they want to disrupt the Trump train and vote as undeclared. This is the biggest variable out there. </p>
<h2>Do New Hampshire voters feel any pressure leading up to the primary?</h2>
<p>A lot of them do. The electorate is relatively politically attentive and well educated. </p>
<p>This time around, though, when I turn on the evening news on the statewide TV station, there is a vibe that this is not an especially competitive race. And the national political media, as well, is saying that this New Hampshire primary is not very competitive. Will the mood on Tuesday be what it is today, which is that the outcome is all but inevitable and Trump will win? </p>
<p>More attentive voters will show up <a href="https://apnews.com/article/new-hampshire-primary-what-to-expect-f767927784a82d54328de4d212eb15cc">regardless on Tuesday</a>, because they feel like it is their obligation. My question now is how will this attitude affect the more casual voter, if they think that the election is already determined?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570402/original/file-20240119-15-35ut1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nikki Haley walks through a doorway, waving with both hands, to a crowd of people. Several video cameras and phones are pointed closely at her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570402/original/file-20240119-15-35ut1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570402/original/file-20240119-15-35ut1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570402/original/file-20240119-15-35ut1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570402/original/file-20240119-15-35ut1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570402/original/file-20240119-15-35ut1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570402/original/file-20240119-15-35ut1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570402/original/file-20240119-15-35ut1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley enters a county store in Hooksett, N.H., on Jan. 18, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-un-ambassador-and-2024-republican-presidential-news-photo/1935911425?adppopup=true">Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s the question the media asks about New Hampshire that you never want to hear again?</h2>
<p>Different types of media will ask different things. International media will want a primer on how the presidential nomination process works, which admittedly is complicated and hard to explain. A news site like Politico may want to do a dive on independent suburban voters.</p>
<p>I am getting a little tired of talking about independent voters. It is the right focus, but I am mostly tired of hearing myself talk. I have been asked repeatedly about independent voters, and my answer is not going to change much from Monday to Friday. To me, my favorite part of what happens on Tuesday night is after the polls close and I see what I got right and what I was wrong about. When all is said and done, there is this quiet, and the voters speak.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221551/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dante Scala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A New Hampshire election and politics expert agrees that independent voters are important in the state’s primary − but they shouldn’t be misconstrued with people who are registered as undeclared.Dante Scala, Professor of political science, University of New HampshireLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2197782024-01-18T13:28:38Z2024-01-18T13:28:38ZWomen presidential candidates like Nikki Haley are more likely to change their positions to reach voters − but this doesn’t necessarily pay off<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568066/original/file-20240105-19-uz1nkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley greets supporters on Jan. 3, 2024, at a bar in Londonderry, N.H. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/londonderry-nh-former-south-carolina-governor-and-news-photo/1902583157?adppopup=true">Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has said that she is “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/nikki-haley-abortion-republican-primary-1827870a52349f3ee2f0c2b50e110b3b">very pro-life,</a>” she has also said that abortion is a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">“personal choice</a>.” Her wording on different thorny political issues such as abortion has left <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">some voters confused</a> about where she actually stands.</p>
<p>This has led some political observers, such as Politico journalist Michael Kruse, to say that Haley has “made a career of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/09/29/nikki-haley-profile-trump-gop-00118794">taking both sides</a>,” citing her positions on issues such as identity politics, Donald Trump and abortion.</p>
<p>In the weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses, an Iowa voter praised Haley for pursing a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">“political middle,”</a> noting this allowed the former South Carolina governor to “compromise” and work “both sides.” Conversely, some conservative commentators have also suggested that Haley’s approach is <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-brace-nikki-haley-ron-desantis-showdown-debates-rcna117786">“inauthentic</a>.” </p>
<p>Haley placed third in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">drawing support from 19% of voters</a> there. </p>
<p>Polls on Jan. 16, 2024, showed Trump’s lead over Haley in the New Hampshire primary, set for <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/">Jan. 23, narrowing</a>. </p>
<p>We are <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Shawn-J-Parry-Giles-2037362650">communication and English</a> scholars <a href="https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/english/about-us/faculty/bios/david-kaufer.html">who study</a> the role of language and persuasion in politics. We are particularly interested in the ways that speakers and writers adapt their messages and language in different situations and among various voters. We call this concept rhetorical adaptivity. </p>
<p>Our research shows that women presidential candidates, more than the men they run against, often speak differently to different audiences in pursuit of moderation and common ground. They also tend to shift their strategies and messages in response to criticism. And they often pay a price for it.</p>
<h2>Rhetoric and presidential campaigns</h2>
<p>Politicians changing their words and messages to appeal to different audiences is the subject of a book we co-authored in 2023, <a href="https://msupress.org/9781611864663/hillary-clintons-career-in-speeches/#:%7E:text=Hillary%20Clinton's%20Career%20in%20Speeches%20combines%20statistical%20text%2Dmining%20methods,political%20women%20in%20U.S.%20history">“Hillary Clinton’s Career in Speeches</a>: The Promises and Perils of Women’s Rhetorical Adaptivity.”</p>
<p>This project examined how Clinton, her presidential opponents in 2008 and 2016, and the <a href="https://cawp.rutgers.edu/election-watch/presidential-watch-2020">Democratic women</a> who ran for president in 2020 campaigned differently. We found that women more commonly adjusted their language and reshaped their positions to appeal to more voters and to manage the controversies they faced.</p>
<p>In 2016, for example, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/hillary-clinton-abortion/494723/">Hillary Clinton tried to find more of a middle ground</a> on abortion by referring to the “fetus” as an “unborn person” and talking about restrictions on “late-term abortions” – even as she defended a “pro-choice” position. </p>
<p>Both Clinton and Haley opponents have questioned their authenticity, citing the politicians’ shifting language and positions. Such challenges aimed to undermine their candidacies by suggesting they lacked the character to be president.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hillary Clinton wears a red pantsuit and gestures while standing at a podium, in front of a large crowd of people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hilary Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, speaks to a crowd in North Carolina shortly before Election Day on Nov. 8.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-nominee-former-secretary-of-state-news-photo/621754706?adppopup=true">Zach Roberts/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Haley’s rhetorical maneuvers</h2>
<p>Haley’s critics also cite her shifting positions, including on issues such as abortion, Palestinians in Gaza and Donald Trump to argue she lacks a political core. </p>
<p>Former Vice President Mike Pence, for example, was quick to condemn Haley’s “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/us/abortion-pence-haley-debate.html">compromising stance</a>” on abortion during the August 2023 Republican debate. </p>
<p>Haley’s opponents have also challenged her changing positions on the Israel-Hamas war. As the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Haley supported Israel and disparaged the U.N.’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/nikki-haley-israel-trump.html">Palestinian refugee agency</a> for “using American money to feed Palestinian hatred of the Jewish state.”</p>
<p>Yet, in the early days of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/desantis-haley-gaza-refugees-israel.html#:%7E:text=%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said.-,Ms.,a%20longstanding%20relationship%20with%20Hamas.">Haley showed more sympathy for the Palestinians</a>. </p>
<p>Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ridiculed Haley’s compassion as being “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/16/desantis-haley-gaza-israel-hamas-war-00121869">politically correct</a>.” Haley reaffirmed her pro-Israel priorities in response during a <a href="https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2023/10/20/nikki-haley-says-she-would-support-israel-strengthen-u-s-military-as-president/">speech in Cedar Rapids, Iowa</a>, in mid-October 2023. Haley said she supported Israel and called for the elimination of Hamas. Concern for the Palestinians slipped down the ladder of her priorities.</p>
<p>As a U.N. ambassador, meanwhile, Haley was unwavering in her support for Trump. In her 2019 book, “<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250266552/withallduerespect">With All Due Respect</a>,” Haley concluded: “In every instance I dealt with Trump, he was truthful, he listened and he was great to work with.”</p>
<p>Since then, Haley has carved a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-embraces-trump-in-her-vision-of-gop-future-11633424400">middle ground</a> approach to Trump. She has argued, “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/timeline-nikki-haleys-trump-statements-rcna70456">We need him in the Republican Party</a>. I don’t want us to go back to the days before Trump.” </p>
<p>Yet, in other contexts, she <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jewish-republicans-trump-desantis-2024-45ee4b88592754dfd6ed5332612373b6">disparages Trump</a> for <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-embraces-trump-in-her-vision-of-gop-future-11633424400">sowing “chaos, vendettas and drama</a>.” </p>
<p><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-nikki-haley-opens-trump-israel/story?id=105523630">Trump called her out</a> on this discrepancy in the fall of 2023. “She criticizes me one minute, and 15 minutes later, she un-criticizes me.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nikki Haley wears a white jacket and stands in front of a group of seated people, with the backdrop of the American flag. She holds a microphone and points her finger towards the crowd." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign town hall event in Rye, N.H., on Jan. 2, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-un-ambassador-and-2024-republican-presidential-news-photo/1895740236?adppopup=true">Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Haley’s character woes</h2>
<p>Other critics frame Haley’s positions as “flip-flopping.” They don’t interpret what she is doing as moderating her positions or using the language of compromise to build consensus. </p>
<p>Time magazine ran a headline in February 2023 that read: “A Brief History of <a href="https://time.com/6252040/nikki-haley-donald-trump-relationship-history/">Nikki Haley’s Biggest Flip Flops on Trump</a>.” In March 2023, The New York Times featured an opinion piece titled, “The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/opinion/nikki-haley-president.html">Serene Hypocrisy of Nikki Haley</a>.” </p>
<p>Challenging the authenticity of presidential candidates is commonplace, but it is especially piercing when the challenge is directed against women candidates. In presidential politics, research shows that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/glennllopis/2014/02/03/the-most-undervalued-leadership-traits-of-women/?sh=3b7e486338a1">women are conditioned</a> to be uniters, consensus-builders and mitigators of any negativity they face. </p>
<p>Yet, efforts to do this and still “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/12/31/desantis-christie-haley-slavery-comments-acostanr-brownstein-vpx.cnn">be all things to all people</a>” often result in women candidates falling into gaffe traps. </p>
<p>Haley’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/30/1222272908/week-in-politics-haleys-gaffe-trump-on-primary-ballots-biden-and-southern-border">initial refusal to associate “slavery” with the Civil War</a> in December 2023 reinforced a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/28/us/politics/nikki-haley-civil-war-slavery.html">southern trope</a> that some Republicans of color called a “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/28/republicans-of-color-nikki-haley-civil-war-00133286">tactical blunder</a>.”</p>
<h2>Women’s election challenges</h2>
<p>More leadership experts are recognizing the benefits of political candidates integrating multiple perspectives into their thinking and speech. The <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/09/20/2-views-on-leadership-traits-and-competencies-and-how-they-intersect-with-gender/">Pew Research Center</a> found in 2018 that in politics as well as business, women are perceived to be more “compassionate” and “empathic” and are more likely to work out “compromises” than men. </p>
<p>Yet, in presidential campaigns, and especially primaries, compromise, adaptivity and problem-solving are exchanged for hubris, rigidity and ideological purity. Playing to the political middle is treated as politically evasive and opportunistic. </p>
<p>Eventually, women playing to the middle become more gaffe-prone as the campaign unfolds. Women, more than the men they run against, are granted minimal room by opponents and pundits for unforced errors before they are quickly dismissed as “<a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2112616119">unelectable</a>.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nikki Haley is the latest American female politician to shift her language, depending on whom she is talking to and where. But this tactic has a flip side, prompting criticism of her as inconsistent.Shawn J. Parry-Giles, Professor of Communication, University of MarylandDavid Kaufer, Professor Emeritus of English, Carnegie Mellon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210942024-01-16T17:39:58Z2024-01-16T17:39:58ZIowa was different this time – even if the outcome was as predicted<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569568/original/file-20240116-29-ryzaij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump speaks in Des Moines, Iowa, shortly after his victory in the Iowa Caucus on Jan. 15, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-president-donald-trump-speaks-at-his-caucus-night-news-photo/1936448792?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Trounced, crushed, routed, dominated: Pick your verb to describe what former President Donald Trump did to his GOP rivals in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">Jan. 15, 2024 Iowa caucus</a>. The Conversation U.S. asked <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Timothy-Hagle">two scholars</a> to <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=WzUF8jAAAAAJ&hl=en">analyze the results</a>, in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came in second, with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley a close third.</em></p>
<h2>This year’s unique features</h2>
<p><strong>Timothy Hagle, University of Iowa</strong></p>
<p>Each installment of the Iowa caucuses has unusual or particularly interesting aspects. The 2024 caucuses were no exception. Because the Democrats have an incumbent in the White House, there was little activity on their side of the aisle. Especially so because the Democratic National Committee <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-democrats-new-caucus-process-work/story?id=106133768">removed Iowa from its first-in-the-nation position</a>. As a result, Iowa Democrats <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-democrats-new-caucus-process-work/story?id=106133768">abandoned the traditional caucuses</a> in favor of a mail-in procedure.</p>
<p>Although the Republican caucus race was technically open, those challenging former President Donald Trump faced an uphill battle. He ran <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/us/politics/iowa-caucus-state-politics.html">as if he were an incumbent</a>. In addition, a “<a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/dangerous-cold-snap-blankets-iowa-ahead-of-caucuses-/7439184.html">rally-round-the-chief</a>” effect meant that his several <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/did-donald-trumps-indictments-boost-his-poll-numbers-1832694">indictments didn’t damage his standing</a> in the polls, and sometimes improved it. </p>
<p>Speaking of polls, another interesting aspect of this caucus season was how static the polls seemed to be. <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2024/01/13/iowa-poll-nikki-haley-leads-ron-desantis-ahead-of-republican-caucus-night-big-lead-for-donald-trump/72216523007/">Trump maintained a large lead</a> for the bulk of the period. DeSantis was in second and Haley in third for most of the campaign, after she surged following the first two debates. There was some movement among the other candidates, but mostly in the single-digits range.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Ron DeSantis wears a navy suit and bends down to shake people's hands as he walks on a stage. He stands in front of two large American flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Florida Governor and Republican presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis arrives at a watch party during the Iowa Caucus in West Des Moines on Jan. 15, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/florida-governor-and-republican-presidential-hopeful-ron-news-photo/1928402087?adppopup=true">Christian Monterrosa/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The weather was obviously a big factor for this caucus cycle. Two large snowstorms in the week before the caucuses caused <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iowa-winter-weather-caucus-campaign-events-canceled-a4fd8a5550a05166534f7b330560cbc9">campaign events to be postponed, canceled or moved online</a>. Candidates were trying to make their closing arguments; this disruption likely hurt their plans and disappointed voters still looking to make a final decision on whom to support. In addition, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/15/weather/weather-iowa-caucuses-cold-dg/index.html">extreme cold and severe wind chills on caucus night</a> may have helped <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/16/iowa-caucus-turnout/">drive turnout to lower numbers</a> than any year since 2004.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nikki Haley wears a pink blazer and speaks into a microphone, as she stands in front of a group of people sitting at tables watching her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign stop at a restaurant on Jan. 15, 2024, in Pella, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1935522708?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A diss to Iowa voters</h2>
<p><strong>Stephen J. Farnsworth, University of Mary Washington</strong></p>
<p>A key claim that Iowa caucus defenders make is that voters there are particularly effective at evaluating candidates by running them through a gauntlet of in-person, community meetings from one end of the state to the other.</p>
<p>Of course, character should matter a great deal in evaluating possible presidents. In fact, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-iowa-caucuses-became-the-first-major-challenge-of-us-presidential-campaigns-220509">Iowa caucus first came into its own</a> in 1976 for just that reason. That year, voters saw <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2024/01/14/jimmy-carter-iowa-caucuses/">Jimmy Carter</a>, a plain-spoken Georgia governor, as a strong moral contrast to former president Richard Nixon and the tumultuous years of Watergate.</p>
<p>But nearly 50 years later, Iowans apparently ignored Trump’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61084161">legal woes</a> and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/03/05/few-americans-express-positive-views-of-trumps-conduct-in-office/">questionable personal conduct</a> and gave him an overwhelming victory. </p>
<p>Much of this was the result of Trump’s <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/haley-desantis-to-debate-in-iowa-as-trump-again-skips-confrontation/7434375.html">refusal to participate</a> in any of the Iowa debates. Trump preferred to have fawning conversations with Fox News hosts, instead of doing many traditional, give-and-take <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/14/donald-trump-iowa-rally-republican-caucuses">community conversations</a> with thoughtful voters – the very reason for the Iowa Caucus. </p>
<p>In a sense, Trump <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/us/politics/iowa-caucus-state-politics.html">dissed Iowa voters</a>. And Iowa voters, as a group, let him get away with it – or even rewarded him for it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221094/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Hagle is affiliated with Republicans.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen J. Farnsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From the ‘static’ polls to Trump’s ‘dissing’ of voters, two political scientists look at the Iowa caucus and see more than just the fact that Trump won it, resoundingly.Timothy Hagle, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of IowaStephen J. Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Director of the UMW Center for Leadership and Media Studies, University of Mary WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212572024-01-16T16:49:48Z2024-01-16T16:49:48ZUS election 2024: Trump victory in Iowa caucus not as big as he may have hoped – here’s why Biden still wants him to get GOP nomination<p>News headlines <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/15/donald-trump-wins-iowa-caucus-republicans-nikki-haley">reporting Donald Trump’s victory</a> in the Iowa caucus on January 15 gave the impression of a much larger victory than should sensibly be drawn from this first expression of American electoral opinion in 2024. Iowa grabs attention because it’s the first of the 2024 election primaries, but the historical record also shows that it has only predicted the eventual winner on six out of 13 occasions since it took on this role in 1972. </p>
<p>The last successful GOP candidate who won the Iowa caucus was <a href="https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/01/15/iowa-caucus/iowa-caucus-track-record-00135501">George W Bush in 2000</a>.</p>
<p>This is partly because Iowa, with just over 3 million inhabitants represents less than 1% of the wider US population. Its voters are also much older, more rural, whiter (90%), more evangelical and less college educated than the US at large. Although formerly a swing state Iowa has been <a href="https://www.270towin.com/states/Iowa">solidly republican since 2016</a>.</p>
<p>Those turning out to vote for Trump were also a smaller, self-selecting subset of even that tiny population. Those supporting Trump were 51% of those registered Republicans who turned out to vote on one of the coldest nights of the year amounted to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">just 110,298</a> people.</p>
<p>Similarly, Trump’s margin of victory needs context. His 51% share of the vote and margin of victory over the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, of 30%, are – as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/us/politics/trump-wins-iowa.html#">much of the press note</a> – “unprecedented”. But so is the fact of a former president standing in the primary and caucus process. This has not happened since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Hoover">Herbert Hoover ran, and lost, in 1940</a>. </p>
<p>Still styling himself “President Trump” and turning up with his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/us/politics/trump-wins-iowa.html#">secret service detail in full view</a> makes Trump unlike any of the other candidates. Similarly, his reputation, name recognition and constant presence in the news headlines over the past year have all contributed to his success in the mid-western state. So the result there has come as no surprise to close watchers of the process.</p>
<p>While Trump leaves Iowa in a strong position there remains the possibility that former South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley – who ran third in Iowa – could do sufficiently well in New Hampshire and South Carolina to carry on throughout the primary process as an alternative to Trump. But to do so would require her to match Trump’s attacks on her with a more critical response to the record and reputation of the former president. </p>
<p>Her reluctance to do so suggests to some that Haley is running for the number two spot in order to be picked as a <a href="https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/videos/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2024/01/05/republican-candidate-nikki-haley-on-if-shes-interested-in-becoming-trump-vice-president/72122693007/">potential vice-presidential nominee</a>. A more likely explanation for her failure to attack Trump harder is a desire not to alienate his fanatical base in the hope that she inherits the Republican Party nomination as a result of the unravelling of Trump’s current momentum due to legal reasons (he <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/25/what-next-donald-trump-indictment-charges-arrest/">presently faces 91 criminal charges</a>) or other unforeseen events.</p>
<h2>Biden wants Trump to win</h2>
<p>Joe Biden’s response to the news from Iowa was conspicuously unflustered. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67989135">He posted on X</a> (formerly Twitter) that: “this election was always going to be you and me versus extreme MAGA [Make America Great Again] Republicans. It was true yesterday and it’ll be true tomorrow.” </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1747111676761997607"}"></div></p>
<p>This is also how Biden and his team want it. Trump’s electoral record in national polls is dismal. He lost the popular vote in <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/live-update/elections-2020-updates/note-trump-lost-the-popular-vote-in-2016-but-won-the-electoral-college">2016</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54788636">2020</a> and candidates backed by him did very badly in the November 2018 and 2022 <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-midterms-america-appears-to-have-passed-peak-trump-194391">mid-term elections</a>. By contrast, polls pitting Biden against either Haley or DeSantis show a marked improvement in the prospect for the Republic Party. </p>
<p>Not only has Trump proved a minority taste for Americans nationally, but the Democrats are banking on Trump’s legal woes having a negative impact on his national standing as the year progresses. As the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/26/opinion/trump-polling-conviction.html">New York Times notes</a> “a mountain of public opinion data suggests voters would turn away from the former president” if he were actually convicted of a crime. </p>
<p>It is for this reason that Trump is employing every tactic possible to obstruct and delay any legal reckoning until after the primary process or ideally the general election in November itself. His hope is that by securing the Republican nomination he will be able to portray all the legal cases against him as partisan interference in the American electoral process and in doing so he hopes to avoid legal accountability. </p>
<p>By contrast, the Democrats see such a process as their best chance of overcoming Biden’s own unpopularity with the electorate.</p>
<h2>Negative ratings</h2>
<p>Whatever way the Republican Party nomination process plays out, however, Iowa should not be confused with the support that Trump has on a national basis. Trump’s national favourability ratings currently <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/548138/american-presidential-candidates-2024-election-favorable-ratings.aspx">stand at 42%</a>. While these are slightly better than Biden’s at 41% the key point here is that the likely two contenders for November’s election are closely matched in their overall lack of appeal with the American population at large. </p>
<p>This is a very different picture from that painted by the news coverage from the Iowa caucus. So the media needs to be careful not to oversell the idea of Trump’s success. It would be wrong to reach the conclusion from this one result that his political resurrection and eventual electoral triumph is in some way inevitable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221257/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hastings Dunn has previously received funding from the ESRC, the Gerda Henkel Foundation, the Open Democracy Foundation and has previously been both a NATO and a Fulbright Fellow.</span></em></p>Donald Trump may be the GOP’s frontrunner, but there’s a good reason why President Biden wants to face him in November’s presidential election.David Hastings Dunn, Professor of International Politics in the Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201742024-01-16T13:25:01Z2024-01-16T13:25:01Z1 good thing about the Iowa caucuses, and 3 that are really troubling<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568921/original/file-20240111-19-ds4fma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C49%2C2238%2C1515&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump appears at a Fox News town hall in Des Moines, Iowa on Jan. 10, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-president-donald-news-photo/1923679596?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every four years, the Iowa caucuses find new ways to become a problematic part of the presidential nomination process. Democrats have abandoned the Iowa-first tradition, at least for 2024, but Republicans went full speed ahead with the caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024.</p>
<p>If they were being honest, most politicians and political experts who are not from Iowa – and not planning to curry favor with Iowans someday – would concede that this caucus-first system is <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-caucuses-predict-president-history/story?id=106131420">far from the best way</a> to start to select a presidential nominee, especially considering the low voter turnout in an overwhelmingly white state. But changing old, familiar processes is never easy, particularly during these highly contentious times. </p>
<p>Even so, candidates who talk about the traditional first caucus state sometimes make a political misstep by being honest. </p>
<p>Earlier this month, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/04/us/politics/iowa-new-hampshire-primary-haley.html">Republican candidate Nikki Haley</a> dissed Iowa, telling a New Hampshire audience that their state primary that occurs after the Iowa caucuses would correct the mistakes made in Iowa. “You know Iowa starts it,” she said. “You know that you correct it.”</p>
<p>That’s the sort of thing a candidate trying to do well in Iowa says after the caucuses – not before.</p>
<p>With such honesty, it’s not surprising that former President <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/iowa/republican-presidential-primary">Donald Trump</a> earned 51% of the vote while GOP rivals Ron DeSantis could muster only 21% and Nikki Haley 19%. Further helping Trump was the shrinking field of GOP candidates that saw former Vice President <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mike-pence-2024-president-campaign-republican-trump-0ec44fc2a5b8683f34883e0ea72b2ab2">Mike Pence</a>, former New Jersey Gov. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/chris-christie-drops-2024-presidential-race-rcna127993">Chris Christie</a> and U.S. Senator <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/sen-tim-scott-drops-out-of-2024-presidential-race-shocking-donors-and-campaign-staff">Tim Scott</a> of South Carolina all drop out before the caucuses.</p>
<h2>Iowa’s upside for long-shot candidates</h2>
<p>Iowans, as well as residents of the traditional <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-hampshire-primary-date-2024-elections-first-in-the-nation-democrats/">first primary state of New Hampshire</a>, try to argue that their <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/10/27/iowa-poll-most-iowans-think-iowa-caucuses-should-remain-first/69561842007/">small-state selection processes</a> represent some of the last vestiges of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1957/12/norman-rockwells-america/640584/">Norman Rockwell’s America</a>, where deliberate, sober voters offer a grateful nation the carefully considered <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/new-hampshire-primary-president-joe-biden-gov-chris-sununu/">assessments of candidates</a> that come from community meetings too numerous to count. </p>
<p>That part of the argument is largely true – caucusgoers and voters in both states seem to take the process of evaluating potential presidents <a href="https://wcfcourier.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/iowans-take-voting-seriously/article_117b21cf-afa2-53f7-a996-e89976f136dd.html">very seriously</a>.</p>
<p>Fans of the Iowa caucuses also note that <a href="https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/24/lesser-known-republican-presidential-candidates-hope-iowa-caucuses-lift-their-chances/70924419007/">lesser-known candidates</a> can compete without having huge campaign war chests or political experience. But how is being inexperienced in government or being unpopular with party donors considered a good things for selecting presidents? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A brown-skinned man holds a microphone as dozens of white people listen to his campaign speech." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks in Decorah, Iowa, on Jan. 7, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-businessman-vivek-news-photo/1915569886?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>This year, Republican entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/02/politics/cnn-iowa-debate-qualified/index.html">star faded quickly</a>, and he failed to qualify for the final pre-Iowa debate hosted by CNN at Drake University in Des Moines. Ramaswamy could only <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/iowa/republican-presidential-primary">pull in 7%</a> of Iowa caucus voters despite his boasts of visiting each of Iowa’s 99 counties, a feat officially known as a “<a href="https://politicaldictionary.com/words/full-grassley/">full Grassley</a>,” named for Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley.</p>
<p>That’s part of a pattern for previous shooting stars in Iowa, including <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN20107Z/">Pete Buttigieg</a> in 2020, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2015/10/23/ben-carson-charges-9-points-ahead-of-donald-trump-iowa-poll-gop/74278414/">Ben Carson</a> in 2016, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/01/21/145553419/iowa-gop-officially-declares-santorum-the-iowa-caucus-winner">Rick Santorum</a> in 2012, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWAT008623/">Mike Huckabee</a> in 2008 and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dean-scream-remembering-infamous-iowa-caucus-speech/story?id=36711830">Howard Dean</a> in 2004. </p>
<p>They didn’t last all that long after Iowa. And in some cases, they began to flame out before the caucuses.</p>
<h2>Modern-day media realities</h2>
<p>Despite all the small-town narratives, Iowa’s caucus season increasingly has become a media-saturated process just like everything else in American politics.</p>
<p>And running in Iowa costs far more than in the past. </p>
<p>In the 2024 presidential campaign, Republican campaigns spent more than <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-spend-100-million-iowa-ads-come-rcna130856">US$100 million</a> on 2024 Iowa caucuses advertising, which amounts to about $600 for every Republican caucus participant. In the 2020 presidential campaign, the total amount of ad spending was <a href="https://www.kwwl.com/news/2020-political-ad-spending-how-much-was-spent/article_13729727-896a-505c-90fb-f08159f56b28.html">$44 million</a> – and that included spending from Democratic and Republican candidates. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wearing a red dress holda a microphone in front of a sign that says Fox News Democracy '24." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley participates in a Fox News town hall in Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 8, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1918255110?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The media’s outsized role involves more than just receiving inflated campaign spending. The fact that reporters focus on <a href="https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/horse-race-reporting-election/">horse-race dynamics</a> and downplay issues has long been a problem that diminishes interest and voter turnout, as media scholar <a href="https://communication.gmu.edu/people/slichter">S. Robert Lichter</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=WzUF8jAAAAAJ">I</a> demonstrated in our 2010 book “<a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442200678/The-Nightly-News-Nightmare-Media-Coverage-of-U.S.-Presidential-Elections-1988-2008-Third-Edition">The Nightly News Nightmare</a>.”</p>
<p>Those who defend Iowa and New Hampshire say they are more accessible to lesser-known and inexperienced candidates, but national polling and fundraising, as well as media coverage, are increasingly used as criteria determining who can effectively participate in these small-state processes and who can’t.</p>
<h2>Long-standing flaws</h2>
<p>Another problem with Iowa is the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/01/31/what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses/">low level of turnout</a>, despite the state’s privileged position. The largest Republican caucus turnout was 180,000 voters in 2016, and the best year for <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/02/07/election-2020-democratic-iowa-caucuses-turnout-eclipsed-2016-fell-short-2008/4691004002/">Democratic turnout</a> was 240,000 voters in 2008, when Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton. </p>
<p>Neither number is all that impressive in a state with a population of <a href="https://publications.iowa.gov/135/1/profile/8-14.html#">nearly 3 million people</a> and about <a href="https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/ia">2 million registered voters</a>, of whom about 630,000 are registered Republicans. If Iowa switched to a primary, which would allow a daylong window for voting, evidence demonstrates there would be a lot more participation. Here’s why. </p>
<p>With limited exceptions, Iowa caucuses require a voter to appear in person during the evening in the middle of winter. This year, that meant at 7 p.m. on an evening that hit below-zero temperatures and heavy snow. Even for Iowans accustomed to the cold, turnout was lower as a result.</p>
<p>But unlike a caucus, a primary allows a person to devote only a few minutes to vote via mail or in person at a convenient time and place.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white man carres his daughter on his shoulders as he walks with hundreds of other white people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida carries his daughter Madison while walking through the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines on Aug. 12, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-florida-gov-ron-desantis-news-photo/1610098448?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Aside from the convenience factor, the major problem with the Iowa caucuses is that the state does not remotely look like America.</p>
<p>According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the vast majority – <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population">88%</a> – of Iowans are white. For the U.S. as a whole, that figure is about <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045222">75%</a>. What that means is that caucus results may not be reflective of the nation as a whole but merely a snapshot of a certain small-town, folksy part of America.</p>
<h2>Vote-counting delays</h2>
<p>Maybe some of these problems could be excused if the process worked well. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucuses-errors-results.html">it does not</a>.</p>
<p>Despite decades of experience in running caucuses, Iowa has demonstrated that it frequently cannot count. The New York Times described the 2020 Iowa caucuses as an “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/us/politics/iowa-democratic-caucuses.html">epic meltdown</a>,” as results were not finalized for days.</p>
<p>The 2024 process went smoothly, but the 2020 caucuses weren’t the first to have problems. The 2012 Republican contest also suffered from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/report-santorum-finished-34-votes-ahead-of-%20romney-in-new-iowa-tally-votes-from-8-precincts-missing/2012/01/19/gIQAJGuRAQ_story.html">counting misfires</a> that took two weeks to resolve. </p>
<p>A delay in reporting results is not necessarily a bad thing. One wants to ensure accuracy, and delays of days for election results are normal in closely fought contests. But Iowa has demonstrated that its caucuses seem to generate more problems when it comes to reporting results than primaries do.</p>
<p>Democrats <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/iowa-politics-democrats-republican-campaign-1d624898">abandoned the 2024 Iowa caucuses</a> following the 2020 mess there and perhaps in part because President Joe Biden could hardly feel positively about the caucus system after <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/02/05/joe-biden-calls-4th-place-iowa-caucus-finish-gut-punch/4669943002/">his fourth-place finish</a> there in 2020.</p>
<p>This year, the Democratic process effectively bypasses Iowa and New Hampshire and starts with the South Carolina primary.</p>
<h2>A possible alternative?</h2>
<p>How might one fix these issues?</p>
<p>Well, scholars suggest a range of alternatives, including a <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Imperfect-Primary-Oddities-Biases-and-%20Strengths-of-US-Presidential/Norrander/p/book/9780367274948">one-day, nationwide primary</a>, a small-state-first system that groups states of similar population sizes, or perhaps a series of five or so multistate regional primary contests, with the order of the regional groups determined by lottery. </p>
<p>None of these alternatives seems likely to happen, though, and that means the various problems with the Iowa caucus process will continue, regardless of which party is conducting one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen J. Farnsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Iowa caucuses have long been an oddity in modern-day politics but remain a place where GOP candidates can test their presidential aspirations.Stephen J. Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and Director, Center for Leadership and Media Studies, University of Mary WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212072024-01-16T03:29:08Z2024-01-16T03:29:08ZDonald Trump’s stroll to victory in Iowa was a foregone conclusion. This doesn’t make it any less shocking<p>Of course, on the day of the first nominating contest for the 2024 US presidential election, there was a storm. </p>
<p>In Iowa over the weekend, blizzards described as “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/12/weather/winter-weather-alerts-blizzard-floods/index.html">life-threatening</a>” by the National Weather Service brought with them temperatures well below freezing, up to 25 centimetres of snow and ferocious winds. </p>
<p>In these terrible conditions on Monday night, Republicans in the Hawkeye state gathered to choose their preferred candidate for president of the United States. Polls had suggested for a long time that they had <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-16/trump-iowa-caucus-election-polls-begins-and-ends/103322016">already made their choice</a> – former President Donald Trump was set to win in a landslide. The only real question was who would snatch second place. </p>
<p>Iowa holds a caucus vote in presidential nominating contests, as opposed to most other states, which hold primary votes. In the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/01/11/1222881162/how-does-iowa-caucus-work">Iowa caucuses</a>, registered Republican voters gather in small groups in their local diners, schools and churches, hear from candidate representatives and each other, and vote privately for their preferred candidate. </p>
<p>As always in US electoral politics, turnout is the main game – which explains the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-67988791">focus on the weather</a> and how it might impact voters’ willingness to turn up. </p>
<h2>Iowa was always Trump’s for the taking</h2>
<p>Trump, who led recent polls by double digits, did not feel the pressure to mount the type of intensive campaigning that might be expected of a nominee wanting to maximise turnout and make a statement in the first nominating contest.</p>
<p>Why would he? Even when he was not physically present in the state – which was a lot of the time – this contest was already all about Trump. Even when the focus was ostensibly on the other candidates, what Republican voters really wanted to know was how they felt about Trump and his many felonies and constitutional breaches, and how they could have the temerity to challenge someone who has come to dominate the Republican Party to such an unprecedented extent. </p>
<p>As the snow closed in and the roads iced over, those leading competitors – Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy – scrambled to reschedule and relocate their campaign events in the final days before the caucus. But they were fighting more than just the weather. </p>
<p>As bitter as the campaigning between these candidates has been, it has been almost entirely aimed at each other. Not one of them has been prepared to make a substantive critique of Trump and what he stands for. Each has sought to cloak themselves in at least part of his political aura. And each was battling for second place. </p>
<p>In the end, the winner was declared before the caucuses had even finished. Just as predicted, Trump won Iowa by an <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/elections/results/2024-01-15/primaries/republican/iowa?itm_source=oembed&itm_medium=news&itm_campaign=article&itm_content=presidential-primary-single">overwhelming margin</a>, with DeSantis and Haley neck and neck for second place.</p>
<h2>The extent of Trump’s power over the party</h2>
<p>While the result may have been a foregone conclusion, it is still significant. </p>
<p>The vote shows that the majority of Republican participants in Iowa were willing to publicly declare their support for a candidate who has incited an insurrection and been charged with 91 separate felonies, threatened violent retribution against his political opponents and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/06/donald-trump-sean-hannity-dictator-day-one-response-iowa-town-hall">promised</a> to act as a dictator on “day one” of a potential second term in office. His speeches are also <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/15/trump-poisoning-blood-immigration-polling/">steeped in overt racism</a> that once thrived only on the political fringes. </p>
<p>It is no longer possible to deny this political reality. This election is not like any other that has come before. It is not business as usual. </p>
<p>To an extent that is almost impossible to fathom, Trump continues to dominate the Republican Party. After the Iowa caucuses, it can no longer be said that he does so in spite of the multiple felony charges he faces, his disdain for democratic processes or his overt racism. Rather, it is <em>because</em> of all these factors that he has maintained the loyalty of a substantial, noisy and mobilised majority of the Republican base. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beneath-the-trump-circus-american-democracy-faces-up-to-a-vital-challenge-203224">Beneath the Trump circus, American democracy faces up to a vital challenge</a>
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<p>Some commentators hold out the forlorn hope that a Trump revival can still be averted. On current polling and performance, however, it is clear none of the other primary challengers are in a reasonable position to defeat him in the race for the nomination. Their only hope is that Trump may be tripped up by one of the <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/">multiple legal processes</a> he is currently snared in. Though not impossible, nothing that has happened so far suggests this is likely. </p>
<p>But the size and extent of Trump’s victory in Iowa does not tell the whole story. Each of his challengers has defined their pitch for power largely in deference to Trump and have studiously avoided taking him on directly. </p>
<p>Haley, for instance, continues to pay obeisance to Trump’s accomplishments. Her recent <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/01/08/1223567778/nikki-haley-went-from-confederate-flag-removal-to-omitting-slavery-as-civil-war-">refusal to name slavery</a> as a fundamental cause of the US Civil War was not an act of historical ignorance. It was a signal sent to the Republican base that despite her previous positions on issues such as the <a href="https://time.com/6255503/nikki-haley-2024-confederate-flag/">Confederate flag</a>, she is now willing to perpetuate and pander to the same racialised worldview as Trump.</p>
<p>DeSantis has frequently sought to position himself as the most activist <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-wokeness-has-become-the-latest-battlefront-for-white-conservatives-in-america-207122">anti-“woke”</a> contender – a better Trump than Trump. Ramaswamy, meanwhile, has sought to present himself (with little success) as a sleeker, next-generation Trump. </p>
<h2>What does Iowa portend for democracy itself?</h2>
<p>The positioning around Iowa, and the result, consolidate dynamics that have been underway for some time. The Republican Party remains in the grip of Trump because he is the most effective avatar of a brand of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-wokeness-has-become-the-latest-battlefront-for-white-conservatives-in-america-207122">racial revanchism</a> with deep roots in the United States. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-wokeness-has-become-the-latest-battlefront-for-white-conservatives-in-america-207122">Why 'wokeness' has become the latest battlefront for white conservatives in America</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>By mobilising against what they perceive as threats to the established social order, Trump’s conservative base has been determined to use the institutions of the American state to consolidate its positions of power. It can then impose its worldview on the entirety of the country. The overturning of Roe v Wade by the conservative-dominated Supreme Court is a good example.</p>
<p>This is an explicitly racialised and anti-democratic movement that intends to impose the will of the minority over the lives of the majority. Every single Republican candidate who polled in Iowa is seeking to be the standard bearer of this movement. </p>
<p>The primary contest still has a long way to run. If there is any lesson from US political history, it is to expect the unexpected. </p>
<p>But this election is not business as usual. The current trajectory is clear, and it is dangerous: dangerous for American democracy, and as a result, dangerous for the world. </p>
<p>This storm is only just beginning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221207/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Shortis is senior researcher in international and security affairs at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liam Byrne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The result confirms the vast majority of Republican voters are still infatuated with the former president, despite his legal troubles and how little campaigning he’s done thus far.Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLiam Byrne, Honorary Fellow, School of Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205092024-01-04T13:48:30Z2024-01-04T13:48:30ZHow the Iowa caucuses became the first major challenge of US presidential campaigns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567745/original/file-20240103-27-wzffb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Guests attend a rally for former U.S. President Donald Trump on Dec. 19, 2023, in Waterloo, Iowa.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/guests-attend-a-campaign-event-hosted-by-republican-news-photo/1868318344?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first and most visible test of Republican candidate support in the 2024 presidential election is the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2019/11/16/iowa-caucuses-just-one-testing-ground-candidates/2575267001/">Iowa caucuses</a>, which take place on <a href="https://www.iowagop.org/2024caucus">Jan. 15, 2024</a>. </p>
<p>This year, even though Democrat Joe Biden is not facing a serious challenger for renomination, the Democrats had already <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-republican-presidential-hopefuls-iowa-is-still-the-first-political-beauty-contest-198385">decided to move</a> their first test to South Carolina on <a href="https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/01/03/important-deadlines-released-sc-presidential-primary-voter-registration/">Feb. 3, 2024</a>.</p>
<p>While Iowa does not control who becomes the candidate of each party, Iowans’ choices almost always end up <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2019/11/16/iowa-caucuses-just-one-testing-ground-candidates/2575267001/">matching the rest of the nation</a>.</p>
<p>One of the architects of the modern Iowa caucuses, which began in 1972, wrote that the significance of the caucus was unanticipated. </p>
<p>“Never in our dreams did we realize we would be ‘first in the nation,’ nor did we ever expect anyone outside Iowa would pay much attention,” retired Iowa State University <a href="https://learn.canvas.net/courses/690/pages/full-reading-week-1-section-2">engineering professor Richard Seagrave wrote</a>. </p>
<p>Seagrave said that it wasn’t political calculation that led to the choice to run the caucuses early in the election year. It was the “immense amount of paperwork” needed to document caucus proceedings with only a slow mimeograph machine that led to the choice of such an early caucus date.</p>
<p>“Remember that we had no ‘user-friendly’ computers or high-speed copy machines in 1972,” wrote Seagrave.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/W/bo10415852.html">significance of first-in-the-nation</a> placement did not become clear until a barely known governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/jimmy-carter-iowa-caucuses/426729/">came to Iowa in 1976</a> to test the waters for a presidential run. </p>
<p>That year, “<a href="https://learn.canvas.net/courses/690/pages/full-reading-week-1-section-3">Uncommitted</a>” got 14,508 votes (37%). Carter came in with 10,764 votes (27%) but was declared the winner. He went on to get the nomination and win the presidency. The fact that a relative unknown – spending little money but lots of time and face-to-face campaigning – could win was surprising.</p>
<h2>Why a caucus?</h2>
<p>Before the modern system for choosing presidential candidates was invented, the mechanism since 1832 for nominating presidential candidates had been a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jah/article-abstract/61/4/1097/705185?redirectedFrom=fulltext">national political convention of each party</a>. Voters in each state convention elected delegates to the national convention. A caucus is one way state party leaders picked whom to send and whom those delegates should support.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chicago Mayor Richard Daley at the 1968 Democratic National Convention. Daley’s response to violence at the convention led to major political reforms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/AP-Was-There-Chicago-Riots/1fbc4ed9150a48c982c2808f2f9faf9a/1/0">AP/Jack Thornell, File</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Political bosses, such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Huey-Long-American-politician">Huey Long from Louisiana</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boss-Tweed">William “Boss” Tweed</a> of New York, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/James-Michael-Curley">James Michael Curley</a> of Boston and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-J-Pendergast">Tom Pendergast from Kansas City</a>, had the real power in the 19th and early 20th centuries through their political organizations. Bosses <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/bosses-and-bossism-political">offered aid</a> – housing, medical care, food, clothing – to people before government services became common. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/bosses.htm">Pendergast once told The New York Times</a>, “When a poor man comes to old Tom’s boys for help we don’t make one of those damn fool investigations like these city charities. No, by God, we fill his belly and warm his back and vote him our way.”</p>
<p>A vestige of that political era lasted into the second half of the 20th century, when the actions of Chicago’s longtime political boss, Democratic Mayor Richard Daley, led to a profound change in the presidential candidate selection process.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">The 1968 Democratic National Convention</a> took place in Chicago, a city tightly controlled by Daley. His operatives had long seen to it that people voted for Daley and his chosen candidates.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.history.com/news/1968-political-violence">1968 was a year of violence related to race and the Vietnam War</a>. Riots disrupted the convention. <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">Mayor Daley used his police force to crush</a> the protests. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/democratic-convention-besieged-by-protesters">Daley then bullied delegates</a> to nominate <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo5826735.html">his favored candidate</a>, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, even though Humphrey <a href="https://time.com/4414685/1968-democratic-convention-reform-geoffrey-cowan/">didn’t win</a> a single primary election. </p>
<p>All of this was covered live on television. The violence and bias threatened to taint the Democratic Party.</p>
<h2>1968 provokes reforms</h2>
<p>The Democratic Party created the McGovern–Fraser Commission in 1968 in <a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/mcgovern-fraser-commission-report/">response to the events in Chicago</a>. The new rules changed the party’s presidential nominating process in an attempt to make them more systematic and transparent, as well as to encourage more participation by minority groups, young people and women roughly proportional to their numbers in states.</p>
<p>It was <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2149263">these reforms</a> that launched Iowa’s caucuses in 1972.</p>
<p>In 1976, the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/08/30/iowa-caucus-a-brief-history-of-why-iowa-caucuses-are-first-election-2020-dnc-virtual-caucus/2163813001/">Iowa Republican Party followed the Democrats</a> and began holding caucuses on the same early date. </p>
<p>That increased the visibility of the Iowa caucuses out of proportion to their actual numeric influence in the nominating convention. In 2020, for instance, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020">Iowa sent only 49 delegates</a> out of the estimated total of 4,594 Democratic delegates.</p>
<p>In fact, the caucuses are in large part a media event and a beauty contest, as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt20mvfpw">scholars Hugh Winebrenner and Dennis J. Goldford</a> have suggested. </p>
<p>One memorable caucus occurred in 2004, when <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/howard-dean-s-scream-turns-15-its-impact-american-politics-n959916">Vermont Gov. Howard Dean</a>, who came in third, was cheering on his supporters as he contemplated a national campaign. But a microphone malfunction amplified his enthusiasm. What become known as the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6i-gYRAwM0">“Dean Scream”</a> tanked his candidacy. </p>
<p>Another took place in 2008 when a first-term U.S. senator, Barack Obama, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/jan-2008-barack-obama-wins-2008-iowa-caucus-52099437">won the Iowa caucuses</a>, propelling him to a hard-fought nomination and two terms in the White House. </p>
<p>And in 2016, Democratic Socialist <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/hillary-clinton-wins-iowa-caucuses-bernie-sanders-young-voters">Bernie Sanders almost beat Hillary Clinton</a> in Iowa. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sen. Barack Obama’s surprise win in the 2008 Iowa caucuses helped propel him to the presidency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Obama-2008/a48b051db43c455ba950a68b56de00d1/48/0">AP/M. Spencer Green</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How they do it</h2>
<p>On caucus night, Republican voters gather at precinct meeting places that have included schools, libraries, churches, fire stations and <a href="https://youtu.be/wU1JrPmCZTE">even people’s homes</a>. <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/09/20/dnc-approves-iowa-caucuses-satellite-location-plan-2020-democrats-democratic-party/2387347001/">In 2020, Democrats also had satellite caucuses</a>, with some even held overseas. </p>
<p>There are speeches by supporters who gather into groups for each candidate. The numbers in each group are counted.</p>
<p>Once the viable groups have been declared, a complex mathematical calculation determines how many delegates are allocated to each surviving candidate. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/01/30/464960979/how-do-the-iowa-caucuses-work">Republican caucuses</a>, attendees vote and the delegates are apportioned according to the statewide results.</p>
<h2>The Iowa caucuses become a tradition</h2>
<p>The Iowa caucuses have become a political tradition because the media devotes so much attention to the candidates’ activities in Iowa and then to how they perform on caucus night. </p>
<p>Criticisms have emerged. Iowa’s small and mostly white population has subjected the caucus to the charge that it is <a href="https://fortune.com/2016/01/20/iowa-caucus-reflect-us/">not representative of the nation as a whole</a>. </p>
<p>A 2019 <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/12/19/democratic-debate-poll-says-iowa-new-hampshire-either-great-terrible/2673988001/">USA Today/Suffolk University poll</a> attested to that concern: While 57% of respondents liked that the opening contests in Iowa and New Hampshire forced candidates to talk directly to voters, 52% thought that the two states didn’t reflect the nation’s diversity. </p>
<p>There is also a concern that caucuses are difficult events to participate in because voters must attend personally and at night. The turnout rate of eligible voters is low, hovering around 10%, while <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/10/turnout-was-high-in-the-2016-primary-season-but-just-short-of-2008-record/">primaries normally have turnouts of 35% or more</a>.</p>
<p>In 2020, there was renewed debate about <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/too-much-democracy-is-bad-for-democracy/600766/">how Americans should select their candidates for president</a>. Caucuses are now generally in disfavor, with many states moving to primaries. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/be127173">originally published on Jan. 1, 2020</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steffen W. Schmidt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A political scientist traces the development of the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses and how the small, rural state became influential in presidential politics.Steffen W. Schmidt, Professor of Political Science, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194492023-12-29T11:44:39Z2023-12-29T11:44:39ZWhy Russia and China have been added to Republicans’ new ‘axis of evil’<p>Former US president George W Bush’s concept of an “axis of evil”, introduced in his 2002 <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html">State of the Union</a> address, came to define the flawed foreign policy decisions of his years in power.</p>
<p>He used it to legitimise both the invasion of Iraq and the ensuing <a href="https://2001-2009.state.gov/s/ct/rls/wh/6947.htm">“war on terror”</a>. Bush’s axis of evil included Iraq, Iran and North Korea. They were bound together as long-standing US adversaries, rendered as actively seeking weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and who, he argued, collectively posed a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/onpolitics/transcripts/sou012902.htm">“grave and growing danger”</a> as antagonist regimes capable of attacking the US and its allies.</p>
<p>Rolling into 2024, with a <a href="https://fpc.org.uk/2024-us-presidential-elections-a-fork-in-the-road-for-the-future-of-american-foreign-policy/">US presidential election</a> on one side, and continuing geopolitical volatility from Ukraine to east Asia on the other, Republicans, in particular, have recently <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/29/axis-of-evil-russia-china-iran-north-korea-bush-era/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FP%20This%20Week%20-%2012052023&utm_content=B&utm_term=fp_this_week#cookie_message_anchor">revived the term</a> to explain concurrently the machinations of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.</p>
<h2>Clear and present danger?</h2>
<p>The new “axis” however, operates on different principles, and its links to US policy are more tenuous.</p>
<p>First, the distinction between original axis countries, including long-standing US adversaries North Korea and Iran, and new additions <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/china-beijing-biden-us-foreign-policy">China</a> and Russia. </p>
<p>During the cold war, Russia and China were of great concern to the US. But during the Bush era, neither was regarded as constituting either the remote or proximate threat of that first axis. Grouping the four suggests that some in Washington feel that both China and Russia pose a significant enough challenge to both US and global systems to add them to a renewed axis of evil, rather than categorising them separately as individual belligerents.</p>
<p>Second, the perceived threat to the US arising from associations between each of the four members is uneven. <a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-persian-russian-connection">Russia’s connections with Iran</a> are long-standing and have been, mostly, tolerated by the US. </p>
<p>These links only become unpalatable, and worthy of including in an axis, when nations step over a particular line. Iran did so by helping Hamas plan <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25#:%7E:text=DUBAI%E2%80%94Iranian%20security%20officials%20helped,another%20Iran%2Dbacked%20militant%20group.">the October 7 attack</a> in Israel. </p>
<p>Russia has been added to the axis list – after undertaking expansionist adventures so significant (by invading Ukraine) that it cannot be ignored. So for both Iran and Russia, magnitude of ambitions counts. </p>
<p>Neither Russia’s invasion of <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-2008-russo-georgian-war-putins-green-light/">Georgia in 2008</a> nor <a href="https://www.history.co.uk/articles/putin-s-gamble-russia-s-2014-invasion-of-crimea">Crimea</a> in 2014 saw it consigned to a newfound axis of evil. It merely consolidated its status as a potential Eurasian rogue state. </p>
<p>It appears to be the risk of concerted collaboration between two or more axis members, and the combined threat that they represent that worries Washington. For example, former governor of South Carolina and presidential candidate Nikki Haley argued that <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/29/axis-of-evil-russia-china-iran-north-korea-bush-era/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FP%20This%20Week%20-%2012052023&utm_content=B&utm_term=fp_this_week">“a win for Russia is a win for China”</a>.</p>
<p>Third, the complexities of what the four have in common with each other remain unclear. What currently binds China and Russia together is their expansionist intent. But this differs from the historic willingness to stir up regional volatility exhibited by <a href="https://geopoliticalfutures.com/predictable-volatility-iran-north-korea/">Iran and North Korea</a>. </p>
<p>China stands opposed to such sabre-rattling from North Korea, while simultaneously undertaking plenty of its own regional expansion.</p>
<p>More interesting perhaps are the immense natural resources wielded by <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/02/huge-impact-fortress-economics-russia-and-china">Russia and China</a>, and to a lesser extent Iran. Russia and China make up enormous sections of Eurasia in terms of landmass, population and trading links binding their economies. </p>
<p>Does this suggest that the size, finances and natural resources <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3754480-20-years-later-the-axis-of-evil-is-bigger-bolder-and-more-evil/">of the new axis</a> and its friends may allow it to become a semi-insulated trade and economic block? Probably not, but only while Russia’s current expansionist efforts remain at a standstill. </p>
<p>A post-conflict situation in Europe (assuming an end to the Ukraine war) will ultimately reset the sanctions regime against Russia, and – depending on Beijing’s peace-maker intentions – could facilitate warmer east-west relations.</p>
<h2>Why revive the axis?</h2>
<p>There are both drawbacks and benefits to resurrecting the idea of an “axis”. For supporters of the approach, the new axis provides policymakers with a <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203073629-7/theories-truisms-tools-international-relations-kjell-goldmann">convenient who’s who of adversaries</a>. Assuming all four present a similar danger to the US, it gives a likely challenger for the presidency the chance to point at President Joe Biden’s foreign policy shortcomings.</p>
<p>While, unlike in Bush’s era, military interventions are probably not on the agenda, a more regionally targeted protectionist approach to <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/29/axis-of-evil-russia-china-iran-north-korea-bush-era/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FP%20This%20Week%20-%2012052023&utm_content=B&utm_term=fp_this_week">“not try to do business with them”</a> is more probable.</p>
<p>There is little of real value for US foreign policy in taking this approach. This uneven grab basket of anti-American villainy is reductivist at best, and cartoonish at worst. It suggests equivalences of power whether there are none, imagined ideological symmetry, and coordination incapable of surviving the short-term twists of four separate foreign policies. </p>
<p>The revival of the “axis” appears to be largely coming from Republicans, currently in charge of Congress, rather than the White House. But much may change in 2024 if they take over the presidency.</p>
<p>Like the original axis, the new grouping conflates power and ambition across states, muddies domestic objectives with regional support between two or more of the members, and suggests the need for a new global fistfight to defend democracy.</p>
<p>Rather than superficial attempts at suggesting basic enmity across four disparate nations, more important for the US ought to be a concern about Russia, China, Iran and North Korea’s long-standing preference for authoritarianism, and the ominous implications for their neighbouring states and regions. Alignment and agreements come and go. Entrenched authoritarianism, however, is hell to shift.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219449/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amelia Hadfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>So far, the revival of the ‘axis’ appears to be largely coming from Republicans, rather than the White House.Amelia Hadfield, Head of Department of Politics, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166122023-11-06T18:46:40Z2023-11-06T18:46:40ZTrump vs. Biden, the sequel, is a battle of two older men with big liabilities<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/trump-vs-biden-the-sequel-is-a-battle-of-two-older-men-with-big-liabilities" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In exactly one year this week — on Nov. 5, 2024 — Americans will vote for their next president. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are likely to face each other again.</p>
<p>Both candidates have flaws but so far have batted away <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americans-offer-unflattering-opinions-on-both-biden-and-trump-in-latest-ap-norc-poll">all contenders from within</a> their own parties. </p>
<p>Biden, who turns 81 in a few days, has the majority of both Democrats and Republicans believing <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-age-poll-trump-2024-620e0a5cfa0039a6448f607c17c7f23e">he’s too old</a> for a second term. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63654388">no serious Democratic challenger has emerged</a>. Unless Biden withdraws, he can be assured of the Democratic nomination, notwithstanding the unenthusiastic support from many in his party. Kamala Harris will return as his running mate.</p>
<p>Trump, 77, has kept Republican rivals at bay. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was thought to be a serious threat to Trump but has faltered badly. </p>
<p>The most recent polls of Iowa Republican caucus-goers show DeSantis <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2023/10/30/iowa-poll-donald-trump-leads-ron-desantis-nikki-haley-tied-presidential-candidates-gop-caucus/71342485007/">now tied for a distant second place</a> with Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina.</p>
<h2>Four indictments? No problem</h2>
<p>Trump towers over DeSantis and Haley in every poll. His <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/24/politics/gop-debate-trump-surrender-analysis/index.html">legal troubles have not dented his support</a> among Republican voters.</p>
<p>If Trump is the Republican nominee, former vice-president Mike Pence won’t return as his running mate. Pence <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/former-us-vp-pence-says-he-is-suspending-his-presidential-campaign-2023-10-28/">has ended his own uninspiring run</a> for the presidency.</p>
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<p>There has been no love lost between the two men since the turbulent end of Trump’s presidency. Trump will have the opportunity to select someone new, making the Republican ticket in 2024 different from that in 2016 and 2020. </p>
<p>Although vice-presidential nominees typically do not swing elections, John McCain’s disastrous decision to select Alaska’s governor, Sarah Palin, as his vice-presidential candidate in the 2008 presidential campaign serves a warning that a poor choice does harm a campaign. </p>
<p>Palin was ill-prepared and a <a href="https://origins.osu.edu/history-news/why-sarah-palin-gamble-didn-t-pay?language_content_entity=en">polarizing presence that detracted from McCain’s message and campaign</a>. </p>
<p>In a Trump-Biden rematch, vice-presidential nominees may matter more than usual. The advanced age of Biden — who would be 82 at the start of his second term, while Trump would be 78 — means that there is higher than normal likelihood of the vice-president assuming the presidential office. </p>
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<h2>What to watch for</h2>
<p>Rematches in presidential elections are rare. The most recent was in the 1950s, when Dwight D. Eisenhower faced Adlai Stevenson in two consecutive elections. </p>
<p>Democrat Grover Cleveland stands alone in American history as the only president to serve non-consecutive terms — the <a href="https://www.thegazette.com/guest-columnists/weve-had-two-clevelands-so-how-about-two-trumps/">exclusive club that Trump hopes to join</a>. Just like Trump, Cleveland served one term and was defeated by Benjamin Harrison, but returned to power by soundly defeating Harrison four years later. </p>
<p>Biden’s campaign will undoubtedly be carefully stage-managed to limit his travels and public engagements. He will likely rely on others — Harris and other Democratic party politicians — for the hard slogging. His campaign will have a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-hopes-get-re-elected-little-help-friends-rcna85898">“Team Biden” approach</a> in an effort to convince voters he has a capable — and younger — team behind him.</p>
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<p>Trump, on the other hand, will aim to keep up hectic travel to swing states if only to differentiate himself from Biden. Not unsurprisingly, Trump’s campaign will be less about the Republican party and his team and far more about him. </p>
<p>Biden’s unprecedented <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-makes-history-striking-auto-workers-picket-line-rcna117348">attendance at United Auto Workers’ strike rally</a> in Michigan in September points to upcoming battlegrounds that will help decide the 2024 election. </p>
<p>Given the nature of American elections, some states routinely vote Republican, and others Democrat. New York, for example, has been a Democratic state for the past nine presidential elections. </p>
<p>However, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia swing back and forth. These are the <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3870203-these-6-states-will-determine-the-2024-presidential-election/">states that must be won for a candidate to be elected president</a>. Trump won all six in 2016 but lost in five in 2020. </p>
<h2>Looking back at Nixon vs. Kennedy</h2>
<p>Presidential elections are influenced, and in some cases even decided, by the personal appearances and day-to-day activities of the candidate. For both Trump and Biden, the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/kennedy-nixon-debates">1960 presidential debate is instructive</a>. </p>
<p>Richard Nixon came to the debate with a lack of makeup, a five o’clock shadow, grey suit and directed his comments at the studio audience rather than the TV camera. </p>
<p>In contrast, John F. Kennedy was tanned, blue suited and spoke directly to the camera. Those who watched the debate on television declared Kennedy the winner, while those who listened on the radio concluded that Nixon’s performance was superior.</p>
<p>For Biden in particular, but also Trump, a stumble while climbing stairs, a momentary loss of memory or citing incorrect facts during a speech will be mercilessly exploited by the opponent. </p>
<p>In an environment were cameras are everywhere and social media is the major tool used to reach voters, both Biden’s and Trump’s campaigns will be tightly scripted and rely as much as possible on pre-recorded video. </p>
<p>Whatever else the 2024 election campaign will hold, a Biden-Trump rematch offers American voters two contenders they know intimately. Like all sequels, that’s both good and bad news.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216612/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Klassen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Nov. 5, 2024, Americans will likely have to choose between two older men as president. Here’s what to watch out for in the second showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.Thomas Klassen, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2148642023-10-09T19:18:15Z2023-10-09T19:18:15ZTrump vs Haley vs DeSantis: inside the real battle for the 2024 Republican nomination<p>Is it inevitable that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for US president for a third race in a row? To answer this question, we must understand the political dynamics in the United States at a deeper level than the headlines.</p>
<p>The Republican Party is in the midst of a nearly unprecedented drama. Not since Herbert Hoover in 1940 has a former US president campaigned for another term in the Oval Office. And this time, Trump is also managing a slew of criminal and civil charges – yet remains the frontrunner for the nomination.</p>
<h2>Why does Trump still have such strong support?</h2>
<p>It is political gospel in the US that voters rarely admit they made a mistake in the voting booth and will continue to support parties and candidates they voted for in the past. </p>
<p>This means that, for all of his personal sins, rude insults, felony indictments and electoral defeats, Trump remains relatively popular with Republican voters, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-primary-criminal-charges/index.html">the majority of whom</a> want to see him return to his old job running the White House. </p>
<p>Indeed, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/trump-leads-gop-primary-field-141323344.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKyvMcbsi3elDTfZLJkZ_tH8ANWcTRWEQH5sX3Vzv9_AQwDXtzshiSUMJvA0bF2q7HXoDYiW9Dj6XtakD_DAO25Kqyqv1FhZhWk33ZuI8SQ72N8h6Kufttuokz1oKi1wnFAaVwnCIV-JX7BszphFiChD2l64pAURX3txN--I3GZr">polling indicates</a> the indictments actually strengthened the former president’s position among Republican voters.</p>
<p>Because of his popularity within the party, Trump has been able to skip Republican candidate debates, define his own path to the state nomination caucuses and primaries, and keep well ahead of his rivals in the polls. He uses his criminal indictments as evidence the establishment is out to get him, further cementing the “outsider” status his voters love.</p>
<p>During the first Republican debate he sat down with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson for a lengthy clickbait interview. During the second debate, Trump spoke with striking auto workers in the swing state of Michigan. No other Republican candidate is strong enough even to attempt this – at least, not yet.</p>
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<h2>Who are Trump’s challengers?</h2>
<p>For Trump’s challengers, who lack this flexibility, a great winnowing is now underway. The question today is not whether one of them can move past Trump in the polls, but rather which one will emerge as the main alternative. The previous two debates – and there will be at least one more - should be seen in this context. </p>
<p>Two candidates appear to be emerging from this winnowing: Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida and Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and the Trump administration’s ambassador to the United Nations. Haley and DeSantis are pursuing different constituencies within the Republican Party, particularly in their approaches to foreign policy questions.</p>
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<p>Haley has effectively attacked the isolationist America-first policies of the previous Trump administration and vigorously defended US military aid to Ukraine. Her open appeal to the internationalist wing of the party will win her no friends among hardcore Trumpers. </p>
<p>DeSantis is playing a more nuanced game – attempting to appeal to isolationist Republicans by saying things like “Ukraine is a territorial dispute” and “we are not going to have a blank check” and “we will make the Europeans do what they need to do”. These statements strongly communicate scepticism of a vigorous US role in Ukraine.</p>
<p>The bet here, however, is that this is a feint. DeSantis is following in the footsteps of Ronald Reagan, who as a candidate in both 1976 and 1980 routinely condemned prior US presidents’ Panama Canal treaties as a giveaway to foreigners. However, once he was in office, he did not abrogate them. </p>
<p>DeSantis may sound like a nationalist, but there is nothing in his various statements on Ukraine that would necessitate withdrawal of US support for the fight against the Russian invasion. If he wins the presidency, look for a substantive pivot towards a more internationalist policy agenda.</p>
<p>The Haley-DeSantis battle is about more than foreign policy, of course. Haley is making an appeal to Republican women with a relatively moderate position on abortion – opposing a federal limit on the procedure. </p>
<p>DeSantis is looking to draw Trump supporters by bragging about his various efforts to fight socially liberal social policies and their corporate advocates.</p>
<h2>The strategy for getting past Trump</h2>
<p>In the two-person battle to be the Trump alternative, Haley may have a structural advantage over DeSantis in that she doesn’t have to pull as many of her supporters away from Trump. As the other candidates fall away, their supporters will likely side with Haley. Vivek Ramaswamy’s supporters may end up with DeSantis, although the animosity between Trump and the Florida governor may limit that. </p>
<p>Trump’s great political vulnerability is that since 2016, he has been an electoral loser. He lost the majority in both houses of Congress in 2018, he lost re-election to Joe Biden in 2020, and he cost the Republicans a shot at winning the Senate in 2022 by personally supporting losing candidates in Georgia and Pennsylvania. </p>
<p>Whether Haley or DeSantis wins the contest to be the alternative to the former president – and look for that winner to emerge just before or during the Iowa Caucus in January 2024 – they will have to challenge Trump at his weakest spot: his demonstrated inability to defeat Biden in an election. </p>
<p>Trump has spent the past three years denying he lost the 2020 election. As a world-class political athlete, Trump knows his Achilles heel is his loss to Biden. For Trump to be a viable candidate in 2024, he must sow doubt about that loss. He has done so effectively, at least within the primary voter base, with a majority of Republican voters still believing Biden didn’t win legitimately. </p>
<p>For Haley or DeSantis to prevail and become the Republican presidential nominee, they will have to dismantle that Big Lie and force voters to confront the likelihood that Trump will lose and Biden will win a second term. </p>
<p>If and when that battle begins, most likely between Trump and Haley, we will see the real future of the Republican Party and who will oppose Biden in the 2024 general election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lester Munson is a Non-Resident Fellow at the United States Studies Centre in Sydney. He is affiliated with BGR Group, a government relations firm in Washington, DC, and adjunct faculty at Johns Hopkins University.</span></em></p>With the former president still very popular within the Republican Party, it will likely come down to Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis to challenge him for the Republican nomination.Lester Munson, Non-resident fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2100442023-08-30T12:17:52Z2023-08-30T12:17:52ZGovernors may make good presidents − unless they become ‘imperial governors’ like DeSantis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544785/original/file-20230825-17-4q4pb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2635%2C8188%2C2684&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Of the eight Republicans on stage at the party's first presidential debate, six were current or former governors.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidates-former-arkansas-gov-asa-news-photo/1621999903">Joshua Lott/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many people believe governors make good presidents. In fact, a 2016 Gallup Poll found that almost <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/189119/state-governor-best-experience-presidency.aspx">74% of people</a> say that governing a state provides excellent or good preparation for someone to be an effective president. As a result, many political commentators have tried to explain why Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is stumbling in his campaign for president. </p>
<p>Some say it is because he is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/us/politics/ron-desantis-campaign-challenges.html">stiff or awkward on the campaign trail</a>, or his path to the nomination is not really to the political right of former President Donald Trump, or he needs to step up and directly confront the former president.</p>
<p>But as the former executive director of the <a href="https://www.nga.org/">National Governors Association</a> for 27 years, I have worked with well over 300 governors. During that time I have been part of many conversations with governors regarding other governors running for president. So I know that some current and former governors on both sides of the aisle would have another reason for why DeSantis is stalling. If you were to ask them, I expect they would mostly smile and say quietly, “It is because he has become an imperial governor” – one who believes he is all-powerful and that all his decisions will be just applauded and never questioned or opposed.</p>
<h2>A dominant position</h2>
<p>Unlike presidents, who are seldom able to politically dominate Washington, D.C., many governors can dominate their states – so much so that some begin to believe they can do nothing wrong. Essentially, they believe they can do anything. </p>
<p>That experience often creates a false impression that what they did in their states they can do for the nation. A recent Miami Herald opinion article called DeSantis an <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article277104213.html">anti-woke, anti-LGBTQ+ politician</a> who has become known for fighting drag queens, critical race theory and Disney.</p>
<p>These are not exactly issues important to citizens of most other states and thus not useful as a foundation for a presidential campaign. This is clearly reflected in a recent New York Times poll of Republicans, where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/06/us/politics/woke-republicans-poll.html">only 17% supported an anti-woke campaign</a>, while 65% supported a law-and-order campaign.</p>
<h2>Significant power</h2>
<p>Governors traditionally have more constitutional and legal powers than do presidents, particularly in terms of budgets and in cases of emergency.</p>
<p>In fact, former governors Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were known to remark, when they were president, that they <a href="https://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/02/01/UPI-Spot-News-Weekender-Line-item-veto-on-Reagan-wish-list-again/1481539154000/">wished they had the budget powers</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/supcourt/stories/wp062698.htm">they had</a> <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/03/text/20060306-7.html">when they were governor</a>. Often, I heard these comments during discussions with governors at National Governors Association meetings.</p>
<p>To reduce federal spending, Congress and the president must agree.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/4082783-line-item-veto-explained/">most governors have line-item veto authority</a> over budgets, allowing them to strike funding for specific programs, subject only to the override by a super-majority of the legislature.</p>
<p>Similarly, many governors can <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/03/how-states-can-manage-midyear-budget-gaps">cut previously enacted state budgets by up to 5%</a> without consent from the legislature.</p>
<p>Some governors can even spend federal funds sent to the state without legislative approval. For instance, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a Republican, unilaterally expanded Medicaid eligibility in his state in 2013 under the Affordable Care Act – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/22/us/medicaid-expansion-is-set-for-ohioans.html">over the objections of his fellow GOP members</a> who controlled the state General Assembly.</p>
<p>By contrast, President Joe Biden has struggled to <a href="https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/supreme-court-rejects-student-loan-relief-plan/2023/06">reduce the burden of student loan debt</a>, and, in fact, his plan was overturned by the Supreme Court.</p>
<p>Governors also typically have more power than presidents during emergencies. During the pandemic, <a href="https://nashp.org/states-covid-19-public-health-emergency-declarations/">all 50 governors declared states of emergency</a> that allowed them to expand health care workers’ ability to provide care, reducing hospitals’ and doctors’ liability to lawsuits, and protected consumers from price gouging on necessities. They were also able to require certain groups of people to wear masks and get vaccinated, and even shut down bars and restaurants for periods of time. </p>
<p>When then-President Trump declared a <a href="https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/">federal COVID-19 emergency</a>, his powers were largely restricted to the health care programs that the federal government administers, such as Medicare and Medicaid, and efforts by the Department of Health and Human Services.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a vest swings a baseball bat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis swings a baseball bat during a presidential campaign stop in Iowa in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024DeSantis/3e78128c336546f3b3cb79f4894e0589/photo">AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall</a></span>
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<h2>Political prominence</h2>
<p>Governors often are the dominant political force in their states. They particularly tend to overshadow the legislative and judicial branches – which significantly limit the power of the president at the federal level. </p>
<p>Governors dominate the legislature, in part, because state lawmakers tend to have <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/about-state-legislatures/size-of-state-legislative-staff">very few staff</a> to help them – if any at all. By contrast, U.S. House members each have <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R43947">about 18 staff members</a>,
and senators average about 40 staffers.</p>
<p>And that doesn’t include committee staff members or the support organizations of the <a href="https://www.usa.gov/agencies/congressional-research-service">Congressional Research Service</a>, the <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/">Congressional Budget Office</a> and the <a href="https://www.gao.gov/">Government Accountability Office</a>, which work for committees and members.</p>
<p>In addition, most state legislators are part time and may only be in session a few weeks per year. The commonwealth of Virginia is like many states, <a href="https://www.djj.virginia.gov/pages/about-djj/legislative-process.htm">only meeting for 60 days</a> in even years and 30 days in odd years – though those sessions are often extended by up to 15 days.</p>
<p>It is also true that many governors have legislatures with huge majorities of the same party, which often minimizes any opposition. In Florida, for instance, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/2023_Florida_legislative_session">28 of the 40 senators are Republican</a>, and 85 of the 120 House members are as well. This adds up to a veto-proof majority for DeSantis. </p>
<p>Governors tend to dominate state supreme courts, too. Most states’ justices, who are typically appointed by the governor, have <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Length_of_terms_of_state_supreme_court_justice">both term limits and age limits</a>, which means turnover is much more rapid. Therefore, states’ top judges are more likely to have been appointed by the current sitting governor – as opposed to the federal Supreme Court, where <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-judicial-branch/">judges have life appointments</a> and can serve through many presidencies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman smiles while holding a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley speaks during a presidential campaign event in Iowa in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024AbortionCandidates/f3b2a649196d48319450820fe8556d85/photo">AP Photo/Jeff Roberson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A matter of timing</h2>
<p>A governor most often begins to view himself as imperial during the first couple of years after a very successful reelection – and only in states with large populations.</p>
<p>The last governor that I remember who reached imperial status was <a href="https://www.nga.org/governor/scott-walker/">Scott Walker</a>, Wisconsin’s governor from 2011 to 2019. He ran for president in 2016 but <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/scott-walker-2016-drops-out-213894">withdrew after only two months</a> because of his poor showing in the polls.</p>
<p>This year, in addition to DeSantis, five other former or current governors have declared they are running for president. And at least one is still considering doing so. But most of them are not imperial governors nor at risk of becoming one.</p>
<p>Mike Pence, the former governor of Indiana, never became imperial because he never ran for reelection. Instead, he was chosen by Donald Trump to be his vice president. In addition, many in his party believe he would have had <a href="https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/05/27/gov-mike-pence-facing-tough-re-election-afte-social-issues-stands/85023730/">difficulty in his bid for reelection</a>.</p>
<p>Former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey never reached imperial status because he governed in a state where the legislature was dominated by the opposite party. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson served in a very small state, with only 3 million people. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley also served in a small state, of 5 million people. Any power she might have carried from the governorship into a run for the presidency has dissipated in the six years she has been out of office, including serving as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota serves in an even smaller state, with less than a million people. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is reportedly <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/08/15/virginia-voters-glenn-youngkin-2024/70549023007/">still considering a run</a>.</p>
<p>DeSantis, by contrast, is a second-term governor of a large state. Florida is the <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/state-by-state/florida-population-change-between-census-decade.html">third most-populated state</a>, with <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/FL/PST045222">22.2 million residents</a> as of July 2022. And in 2022, <a href="https://www.wuft.org/news/2022/11/08/desantis-wins-2022-florida-governors-race-by-largest-margin-in-40-years/">DeSantis won reelection in a landslide</a> with <a href="https://www.politico.com/2022-election/results/florida/statewide-offices/">59.4% of the vote</a>.</p>
<p>The state legislature is dominated by people of the same political party, and DeSantis has appointed <a href="https://www.wptv.com/news/state/desantis-appoints-fifth-justice-to-current-state-supreme-court-meredith-sasso">five of the seven justices</a> on the state supreme court.</p>
<p>There is no question that <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-poll-indictments-2023-08-20/">Trump’s recent indictments</a> have made him a stronger candidate for the nomination. Whether this strength will last is unclear as the court cases play out.</p>
<p>But if DeSantis continues to be an imperial governor, he will not be able to take advantage of any erosion in support for the former president and risks being just a footnote in the 2024 race – and may have to forget about 2028 as well.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210044/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raymond Scheppach does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A former executive director of the National Governors Association explains what it is about certain governors that makes them less suited for the presidency.Raymond Scheppach, Professor of Public Policy, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2118562023-08-22T12:26:51Z2023-08-22T12:26:51ZFirst Republican debate set to kick off without Trump – but with the potential to direct the GOP’s foreign policy stance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544022/original/file-20230822-17-xf9lph.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C0%2C8206%2C5487&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">GOP candidates will likely debate whether the US should continue to pour support into Ukraine's effort to defeat Russia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ukrainian-armored-vehicles-maneuver-and-fire-their-30mm-news-photo/1485528240?adppopup=true">Scott Peterson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Republican presidential hopefuls take the stage in Milwaukee on Aug. 23, 2023, for the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_debates,_2024">first debate of the 2024 campaign season</a>, attention will center on how the candidates position themselves <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/08/20/1194905052/republican-presidential-candidates-avoid-speaking-on-trump-at-a-party-conference">vis-à-vis former President Donald Trump</a> and his four criminal indictments. </p>
<p>What candidates say about foreign policy is another critical issue. </p>
<p>Republican leaders are sharply divided over how the United States should position itself in the world. While some <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/what-is-a-maga-republican/">Trump supporters</a> are pressing for the U.S. to pull back from world affairs, more traditional Republicans are calling for robust international engagement.</p>
<p>Ever since the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s, most Republican leaders have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/28/politics/gop-foreign-policy-debate-2024/index.html">supported an active U.S.</a> role in the world. This <a href="https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/30892">internationalist approach</a> was first fueled by Eisenhower’s view that the U.S. needed strong military and diplomatic alliances during the Cold War. </p>
<p>In my own <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=W1MuqgYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">research on U.S. foreign policy</a>, I have found that most Republican politicians continued to support international engagement after the Cold War ended in 1991. </p>
<p>From former Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush to current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, the prevailing <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hard-Line-Republican-Foreign-Policy/dp/0691141827">GOP view</a> has been that membership in military alliances like NATO, a strong U.S. military presence overseas and active American diplomacy make the U.S. safer. </p>
<p>But traditional Republican positions on foreign policy are now in flux. Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-foreign-policy-is-still-america-first-what-does-that-mean-exactly-144841">“America First”</a> vision, which prioritizes American exceptionalism and isolation, challenges traditional Republican internationalism. The Republican primary campaign will help determine the GOP’s foreign policy platform and course. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dwight Eisenhower is one of two men shown in an open-top car in a black and white photo. He waves his hat in the air at a crowd of people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Dwight Eisenhower, left, a Republican, championed the idea that the U.S. should remain strongly engaged in the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-eisenhower-waves-to-well-wishers-sitting-news-photo/517833370?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trump’s split from the GOP</h2>
<p>Trump has pursued an <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-foreign-policy-is-still-america-first-what-does-that-mean-exactly-144841">inward-looking</a> approach to the world, questioning the value of alliances and calling on other countries to take care of security problems themselves. </p>
<p>As president, he pulled out of several <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/01/politics/nuclear-treaty-trump/index.html">international treaties</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/19/us/politics/trump-israel-palestinians-human-rights.html">councils that are part of the United Nations</a>. He toyed with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html">exiting NATO</a> and tried to withdraw all U.S. troops <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2022/10/13/trump-ordered-rapid-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-after-election-loss/">from Afghanistan</a>.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Room-Where-It-Happened/John-Bolton/9781982148034">senior advisers</a> and Republican <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/trump-s-foreign-policy-faces-growing-dissent-congress-n965641">Congress members</a> pushed back on these plans.</p>
<p>Today, as the U.S. actively supports Ukraine with arms and supplies, Trump advocates for a neutral U.S. stance on the war between Russia and Ukraine. He has <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/politics/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-town-hall/index.html">promised to resolve</a> the conflict within “24 hours” by talking with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.</p>
<p>Although Trump has been the dominant figure among Republicans for seven years, his brand of isolationism has been slow <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/05/27/trump-gop-foreign-policy-polling-490768">to catch on</a> with other Republicans. </p>
<p>Trump, for example, proposed in each year of his presidency to slash the State Department’s budget by about one-third. Republicans in Congress worked with Democrats to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3393170">reject these proposals</a> every time. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923">Trump also called</a> Putin a “genius” following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Congress then passed a series of laws in 2022 – with strong <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3781964-final-funding-bill-includes-45b-for-ukraine/">support from Republicans</a> – that imposed sanctions on Russia and provided Ukraine with large amounts of foreign aid. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Tim Scott is seen, partially obscured by a blue curtain, sitting in a beige chair on a stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Senator Tim Scott qualified to appear at the debate on Aug. 23, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-u-s-sen-tim-scott-speaks-news-photo/1608744302?adppopup=true">Megan Varner/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Republicans distancing themselves from Trump</h2>
<p>Nine <a href="https://www.wisn.com/article/milwaukee-first-republican-presidential-debate/44838820#">Republican candidates have qualified</a> for the Aug. 23 presidential debate, and eight of them – all but Trump – are likely to be on the debate stage. Trump has said that he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-wont-take-part-republican-debates-2023-08-21/">will not participate</a> in the debates.</p>
<p>While the top GOP presidential candidates are largely united in favoring a tough stance toward China, they differ sharply on Ukraine. </p>
<p>Several of the candidates, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.S. Ambassador to the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/07/11/2024-presidential-candidates-on-ukraine/70325435007/">United Nations Nikki Haley</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/07/11/2024-presidential-candidates-on-ukraine/70325435007/">Senator Tim Scott</a> and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/jun/09/where-do-republican-presidential-candidates-stand/">advocate strong U.S. support</a> for Ukraine. </p>
<p>But some other high-profile candidates, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, have called for scaling back U.S. involvement in the war, arguing that America’s involvement is <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/jun/09/where-do-republican-presidential-candidates-stand/">a distraction</a> from more important problems. </p>
<p>There are also signs that overall Republican support for Ukraine is slipping.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html">recent polls suggest</a> that most Republican voters oppose giving Ukraine additional military aid, on top of the more than US$46 billion that the U.S. <a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts?gclid=Cj0KCQjwrfymBhCTARIsADXTabljIE1qo4x7czQDkgXX8KFCPkk4knxAfniFbEaBQaICm9O8mFGYkC0aAqMjEALw_wcB">has already given</a>. </p>
<p>This flagging support for Ukraine aid may reflect the fact that the war continues unabated, without a clear sign of peace talks ahead. Ukraine, meanwhile, has only taken back a small portion of its territory from Russia during its current counteroffensive, leading some Ukraine supporters to <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/huddle/2023/08/17/ukraines-top-freedom-caucus-ally-gets-cold-feet-00111608">question whether U.S. military aid</a> is effective enough to merit its high cost. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nikki Haley is seen sitting on a stage and speaking, as seen from multiple television screens in a dark roo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Presidential nominee Nikki Haley is one of the Republican politicians who has spoken out in favor of continued U.S. support for Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-u-s-presidential-candidate-and-former-u-s-news-photo/1608484593?adppopup=true">Megan Varner/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The topic is: Ukraine</h2>
<p>When foreign policy comes up in Milwaukee or at future Republican primary debates, it will be telling whether candidates say they still strongly back U.S. efforts to help Ukraine, or not. </p>
<p>If some of them hold firm on their support, it will be a sign that the Republican debate over foreign policy remains alive. </p>
<p>But if they change their position, this may be a sign that Trump’s hold over the Republican Party is spreading to a policy area that he previously did not strongly influence. It would also suggest that the MAGA – Make America Great Again – movement has been effective in propagating Trump’s policy views, even while he is not in office. </p>
<p>Beyond the war in Ukraine, America’s global role is at stake this election season. Although the country has acted on its principles inconsistently and highly imperfectly, the U.S. – through Democratic and Republican administrations – over the past eight decades helped to <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/220215/the-world-america-made-by-robert-kagan/">foster a more peaceful, prosperous</a> and democratic world. </p>
<p>In the meantime, I think that Trump’s Republican rivals have an opportunity to make the case for preserving and strengthening the international alliances and partnerships that <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300271010/a-world-safe-for-democracy/">help keep the U.S.</a> safe. If they make this case effectively, the GOP debate over foreign policy will be primed to continue well beyond 2024.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jordan Tama does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While a few Republican politicians have aligned with former President Donald Trump’s isolationist foreign policy position, most candidates continue to push for the traditional stance of engagement.Jordan Tama, Provost Associate Professor of International Relations, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2059522023-06-29T12:22:39Z2023-06-29T12:22:39ZYes, debates do help voters decide – and candidates are increasingly reluctant to participate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534407/original/file-20230627-26-scdnv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C11%2C2540%2C1532&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican nominee Donald Trump gestures as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton looks on during the final presidential debate in 2016.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-nominee-donald-trump-gestures-as-democratic-news-photo/615755198?adppopup=true">Mark Ralston/ AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former President Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-confirms-skip-first-gop-presidential-debate-maybe-future-ones-rcna100888">decision to skip the first Republican presidential debate</a> on Aug. 23, 2023 – and likely the others – may be a sign that candidate debates will be the next casualty of the highly polarized political environment in the United States.</p>
<p>“The public knows who I am & what a successful Presidency I had …,” <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110924112193729328">Trump wrote on Truth Social</a>, his social media platform. “I WILL THEREFORE NOT BE DOING THE DEBATES!”</p>
<p>So, instead of sparring with his GOP rivals in the first of those debates, which will run on Fox News, Trump <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/19/trump-gop-debate-tucker-carlson/">will release a recorded interview</a> with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson on an online platform.</p>
<p>For Trump, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/nbc-news-poll-shows-trump-expanding-lead-in-gop-presidential-primary-185076293667">the leading contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination</a>, refusing to participate in a debate is nothing new. In 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/08/second-presidential-debate-between-trump-and-biden-on-oct-15-will-be-virtual.html">he skipped</a> a general election debate because it was moved online.</p>
<p>As is common for incumbent presidents, <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/democrats-rip-dnc-not-holding-2024-primary-debates-robs-voters">Joe Biden will not participate</a> in Democratic primary debates, even though he is being <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/us/politics/robert-kennedy-presidential-run.html">challenged by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.</a>, whose support <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/24_democratic_presidential_nomination-8171.html">polls at 13%</a>, and author <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrat-marianne-williamson-announces-2024-presidential-run">Marianne Williamson</a>. Her polling <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/24_democratic_presidential_nomination-8171.html">average is at 6%</a>, just above the 5% <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-release-new-debate-qualification-thresholds/">threshold for participation in the Democratic presidential debates in 2020</a>. The Democratic National Committee is not sponsoring presidential debates this election cycle, and <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/democrats-rip-dnc-not-holding-2024-primary-debates-robs-voters">Biden has ignored calls</a> from Kennedy and Williamson to debate. </p>
<p>Trump and Biden aren’t the only candidates in recent years to nix debate participation. In 2022, <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-candidates-are-debating-less-often-this-election-cycle/">fewer U.S. Senate and gubernatorial candidates agreed to debate</a> their opponents than in previous election cycles. In fact, on the statewide level, the number of candidates taking part in debates has been declining since at least 2016.</p>
<p>Based on these trends, it’s likely that debate participation will decrease again – across the board – during the 2024 election cycle. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6P3QreQAAAAJ&hl=en">professor of political science</a> and a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xkcGsYgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">professor of communication</a>, we evaluate how presidential candidates communicate their messages to the public during campaigns.</p>
<p>While presidential elections are rarely decided on the debate stage, there is strong evidence that <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2015/11/13/do-presidential-debates-matter">viewers draw on the information they learn in debates to make voting decisions</a>.</p>
<h2>Political debates are rooted in history</h2>
<p>Presidential debates are a historical linchpin of modern American politics. Debates put the major contenders on the same stage and allow voters the opportunity to see how candidates explain – and defend – their policy positions.</p>
<p>Among the earliest reported examples of candidate debates in the United States were the <a href="https://www.debates.org/debate-history/1858-debates/">1858 U.S. Senate showdowns</a> between Republican Abraham Lincoln and Democrat Stephen Douglas. The candidates held seven, three-hour debates across Illinois, focused on whether new states should be permitted to allow slavery.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534408/original/file-20230627-29-ttky4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A tall, suited man stands with his right hand in a tented position on a table beside him and his left hand raised, palm facing up. Behind him, a crowd of men, also wearing suits, sit and look in his direction." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534408/original/file-20230627-29-ttky4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534408/original/file-20230627-29-ttky4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534408/original/file-20230627-29-ttky4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534408/original/file-20230627-29-ttky4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534408/original/file-20230627-29-ttky4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534408/original/file-20230627-29-ttky4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534408/original/file-20230627-29-ttky4g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Then a candidate for the U.S. Senate, Abraham Lincoln, standing, speaks during one of seven debates with Stephen Douglas, seated at Lincoln’s right, over the issue of slavery.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/abraham-lincoln-in-one-of-a-series-of-seven-debates-news-photo/513680463?adppopup=true">Universal History Archive/UIG via Getty images</a></span>
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<p>In 1956, the <a href="https://www.debates.org/debate-history/1956-debate/">first televised presidential debate</a> featured Democrat and former Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson facing Senator Estes Kefauver of Tennessee, also a Democrat, and it was a fairly restrained matchup. Each seeking their party’s nomination for president, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1956/05/22/archives/stevenson-kefauver-find-agreement-in-tv-debate-hbomb-tests-noted.html">candidates took similar positions on school integration,</a> atomic energy and foreign policy during the one-hour debate. They differed over whether the U.S. should discontinue hydrogen bomb testing. </p>
<p>After Stevenson won the primary and Democratic nomination, <a href="https://www.nprillinois.org/statehouse/2016-09-26/in-rare-debate-footage-seeds-of-modern-politics">he selected Kefauver as his running mate</a>.</p>
<p>But the initial, and perhaps most famous, general election presidential debate was in 1960. That’s when <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-debate-that-changed-the-world-of-politics">Republican nominee Richard Nixon sparred with Democratic nominee John Kennedy</a>. This debate, the first in a series of four during that election cycle, was memorable because it highlighted the important role physical appearances play in presidential contests. </p>
<p>Radio listeners thought Nixon – then the sitting Republican vice president – had won. But his <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-debate-that-changed-the-world-of-politics">five-o’clock shadow and pale skin</a> caused television viewers to proclaim Kennedy the clear winner. Decades later, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/29/politics/jfk-nixon-debate/index.html">nationally syndicated columnist Bruce DuMont said</a>, “After that debate, it was not just what you said in a campaign that was important, but how you looked saying it.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534410/original/file-20230627-29-5uqh6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two suited men stand behind individual lecterns, resting their hands atop the stand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534410/original/file-20230627-29-5uqh6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534410/original/file-20230627-29-5uqh6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534410/original/file-20230627-29-5uqh6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534410/original/file-20230627-29-5uqh6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534410/original/file-20230627-29-5uqh6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534410/original/file-20230627-29-5uqh6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534410/original/file-20230627-29-5uqh6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice President Richard Nixon, left, debates Senator John Kennedy in the first nationally televised debate between presidential candidates, in a Chicago television studio on Sept. 26, 1960.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/le-vice-président-richard-nixon-et-le-sénateur-john-kennedy-news-photo/1230343751?adppopup=true">AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>That first Nixon-Kennedy faceoff was also important because of the large television audience – <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/learning.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/26/septe-26-1960-first-televised-presidential-debate/">more than 70 million Americans watched</a> – and the small boost it gave Kennedy in a closely contested election. According to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/110674/presidential-debates-rarely-gamechangers.aspx">Gallup polling</a>, Kennedy went from being down by 1 percentage point before the debate to being up by 3 percentage points after the debate.</p>
<p>But after the Kennedy-Nixon debates, there wasn’t another general election presidential debate until 1976 because some candidates refused to participate in the process. In 1964, Democratic President Lyndon Johnson, the overwhelming favorite, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2012/09/30/opinion/greene-debates/index.html">refused to debate</a> the Republican nominee, Barry Goldwater. And in 1968, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2012/09/30/opinion/greene-debates/index.html">Nixon would not debate Democrat Hubert Humphrey</a> because of his own dismal performance against Kennedy in 1960. Nixon also refused to debate George McGovern, a Democrat, in 1972 because he had a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1972/09/25/archives/new-survey-finds-nixon-is-leading-govern-6223-poll-taken-in-last.html">39-percentage-point lead in the polls in early September</a>. </p>
<h2>Debates are central to political campaigns</h2>
<p>However, since 1976, debates have been an integral part of modern presidential campaigns. In 1976, Republican incumbent Gerald Ford agreed to debate Democratic challenger Jimmy Carter <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/spc/debatingourdestiny/1976.html">because Ford was sagging in the polls after pardoning Nixon</a>. There were <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/debates/history/1976/index.shtml">three debates </a> – the first on domestic policy, the second on international policy and the third on any topic. Carter <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/debates/history/1976/index.shtml">credited the debates for his win</a>, noting that “They established me as competent on foreign and domestic affairs and gave the viewers reason to think that Jimmy Carter had something to offer.” </p>
<p>In 1980, Carter <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/debates/history/1980/index.shtml">skipped the first debate</a> because independent candidate John Anderson was included. So, Carter and challenger Ronald Reagan, a Republican, faced off in just one debate, a week before the election. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1980/10/30/archives/carter-and-reagan-voicing-confidence-on-debate-showing-performances.html">Polls gave Reagan a slight edge in the debate</a>, in part because he used his famous “There you go again” line after Carter accused him of opposing Medicare.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534411/original/file-20230627-25-79014t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two suited men stand behind individual lecterns. The man on the left speaks as the man on the right looks in his direction." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534411/original/file-20230627-25-79014t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534411/original/file-20230627-25-79014t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534411/original/file-20230627-25-79014t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534411/original/file-20230627-25-79014t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534411/original/file-20230627-25-79014t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534411/original/file-20230627-25-79014t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534411/original/file-20230627-25-79014t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Jimmy Carter, left, and his Republican challenger, Ronald Reagan, stand at their lecterns answering questions during a 1980 debate in Cleveland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-carter-and-his-republican-challenger-ronald-news-photo/515169438?adppopup=true">Bettmann / Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.debates.org/about-cpd/">Commission on Presidential Debates</a> was established in 1987 “to ensure, for the benefit of the American electorate, that general election debates between or among the leading candidates for the offices of President and Vice President of the United States are a permanent part of the electoral process,” and has sponsored all the debates since 1988.</p>
<p>Since the commission took the helm, there have been two or three presidential debates each cycle.</p>
<h2>For voters, debates matter</h2>
<p>Beyond tradition, there is considerable evidence from scholars in communication and political science that debates play important roles in our political system.</p>
<p>Communication scholar Steven Chaffee has shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03637757809375978">debates can influence an individual’s vote choice</a> when one of the candidates is relatively unknown, when many voters are undecided, when the race appears close and when party allegiances are weak.</p>
<p>Communication scholars Mitchell McKinney and Benjamin Warner have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00028533.2013.11821800">empirical findings that show presidential primary debates</a>, where less is known about the candidates, have a much greater influence on vote choice than general election debates. They analyzed surveys of general election and primary debate viewers between 2000 and 2012 and discovered that only 3.5% of general election viewers switched from one candidate to the other, but 35% of primary election viewers changed their candidate preference. </p>
<p>McKinney and Warner also found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00028533.2013.11821800">debates enhance an individual’s level of confidence</a> in their political knowledge and their tendency to vote. </p>
<p>In the same study, the scholars also demonstrate that debates can reduce a citizen’s political cynicism, measured in part by the levels of trust and confidence they have in politicians. </p>
<p>Given the rich tradition of presidential debates and the strong evidence that they help educate voters, we believe a lack of candidate participation will harm voters.</p>
<p>Academic research demonstrates that if citizens can see <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/24/us-president-elections-2024-candidates">Biden and Trump – and their primary rivals –</a> discuss their positions on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-america-has-a-debt-ceiling-5-questions-answered-164977">debt ceiling</a> and whether they believe the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-military-spending-in-ukraine-reached-nearly-50-billion-in-2022-but-no-amount-of-money-alone-is-enough-to-end-the-war-197492">U.S. should continue its support of Ukraine</a> in its war against Russia, candidate answers could inform their electoral decisions, make them more confident that they have the knowledge to vote and decrease their cynicism about politics. </p>
<p>With front-running candidates eschewing debates to pursue friendlier formats, we believe voters – and democracy – will be worse off.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s Note: This is an updated version of an article originally published on June 29, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205952/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Debates have played an important part in the American political process. And when candidates don’t participate, democracy suffers.Gibbs Knotts, Professor of Political Science, College of CharlestonVince Benigni, Professor of Strategic Communication, College of CharlestonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2044922023-05-04T12:10:32Z2023-05-04T12:10:32ZThe firings of Don Lemon and Tucker Carlson doesn’t mean the end of hyperpartisan cable news networks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523059/original/file-20230426-20-hol5pe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=684%2C19%2C3747%2C2750&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Then-CNN anchor Don Lemon speaks during a Democratic presidential debate in Detroit on July 31, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/moderator-don-lemon-speaks-to-the-crowd-attending-the-news-photo/1165418659?adppopup=true">(Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Television host <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/the-view-celebrating-tucker-carlson-exit-mourn-don-lemon-termination">Sara Haines</a> of ABC’s “The View” spoke for many viewers when she celebrated the departure of right-wing television host Tucker Carlson from the Fox News Network.</p>
<p>“I am happy to know someone like him no longer has the platform he had built,” she exclaimed. </p>
<p>Similarly, CNN anchor Don Lemon’s ouster on April 23, 2023 – the same day as Carlson’s – generated an equal amount of celebration from conservatives. </p>
<p>One of them was <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/04/24/nikki-haley-trolls-don-lemon-over-firing-hawks-beer-koozies/">Nikki Haley</a>, the presidential candidate and former governor of South Carolina, whom Lemon had previously described as a woman past her prime when she <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/elections/100000008772357/nikki-haley-president-2024.html?searchResultPosition=2">launched her 2024 campaign</a>.</p>
<p>Lemon’s dismissal is “a great day for women everywhere,” Haley exclaimed. </p>
<p>In this age of hyperpartisan news programming, both Carlson and Lemon proved talented at providing perspectives that confirmed their audience’s view of the world.</p>
<p>It is not clear why Lemon and Carlson were fired, but in my view as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=YBntiP0AAAAJ">media scholar</a>, they were removed because they no longer provided the benefits their employers expected. </p>
<p>Instead, I believe they had become potential threats to the networks’ audience shares and advertising revenue. Rather than a victory for women or truth, I view these firings as an effort to sustain and grow corporate profits. </p>
<h2>Hyperpartisan news media</h2>
<p>The advent of <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520347878/the-anatomy-of-fake-news">cable news</a> in the 1980s created more channels for audiences to watch, and thus fractured the audience long dominated by networks NBC, ABC and CBS.</p>
<p>The internet, smartphones and social media <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Lets-Agree-to-Disagree-A-Critical-Thinking-Guide-to-Communication-Conflict/Higdon-Huff/p/book/9781032168982">further fragmented audiences</a>. As <a href="https://www.orbooks.com/catalog/hate-inc/">journalists</a> and <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520347878/the-anatomy-of-fake-news">media scholars</a> have noted, the solution for many media companies in the 1990s was to target their programming to a single demographic instead of trying to attract a larger, general audience. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-165X.2009.tb01921.x">Scholars</a> and <a href="https://www.orbooks.com/catalog/hate-inc/">journalists</a> note that in order to attract a targeted demographic, cable news media relied on hyperpartisan reporting that framed news stories as liberal versus conservative. This approach proved viable, as subsequent studies found that television audiences preferred news outlets that confirmed <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/2018/05/15/fake-news-social-media-confirmation-bias-echo-chambers/533857002/">their political views</a> and attacked <a href="https://www.livescience.com/3640-people-choose-news-fits-views.html">their political rivals</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-165X.2009.tb01921.x">Liberal outlets</a> focused on <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520347878/the-anatomy-of-fake-news">confirming liberals’</a> <a href="https://www.orbooks.com/catalog/hate-inc/">views</a> by introducing <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/chris-hedges/empire-of-illusion/9780786749553/?lens=bold-type-books">caricatures</a> of conservatives who could be easily villainized. The inverse was true at conservative outlets.</p>
<p>By 2021, in my view, the unintended result of such partisan programming was that audiences perceived that the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/17/poll-we-have-met-the-enemy-and-it-is-us-459948">No. 1</a> threat to their lives was other Americans.</p>
<h2>Carlson’s duplicity</h2>
<p>In this cable news environment, Carlson started working at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/business/media/tucker-carlson-career-history.html">CNN</a> in 2000, moved to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna8049787#.W6cJZVInaRs">MSNBC</a> in 2005 and arrived at Fox News Channel in 2009, where he became a megastar with his own program, “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” in 2016. </p>
<p>Whether it was accurate or not, “Tucker Carlson Tonight” provided far-right ideological content that drew an average of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/tucker-carlsons-exit-fox-news-may-be-ratings-bane-advertising-boon-2023-04-25/">3 million nightly viewers</a>, and Carlson became the highest-rated personality in cable news media. </p>
<p>Among Carlson’s falsehoods were that <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/dec/18/tucker-carlson/carlson-falsely-claims-immigrants-are-dirtying-pot/">immigrants were mostly</a> responsible for polluting a U.S. river; that the <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2017/aug/17/tucker-carlson/tucker-carlson-wrongly-says-united-states-ended-sl/">U.S. ended slavery</a> around the world; and that <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2014/aug/15/tucker-carlson/carlson-guns-dont-kill-people-bathtubs-do/">more children died</a> from drowning in their bathtub than accidentally from guns.</p>
<p>Whether he actually believed any of those falsehoods remains unknown. </p>
<p>What is known is that Carlson did not personally believe Donald Trump’s claims that he won the 2020 presidential election – and yet he publicly echoed rather than challenged Trump’s baseless assertions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A billboard shows an image of a white man wearing a necktie next to his words that read I hate Trump passionately." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523855/original/file-20230502-1802-jpfgdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523855/original/file-20230502-1802-jpfgdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523855/original/file-20230502-1802-jpfgdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523855/original/file-20230502-1802-jpfgdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523855/original/file-20230502-1802-jpfgdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523855/original/file-20230502-1802-jpfgdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523855/original/file-20230502-1802-jpfgdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An image of former Fox News Channel host Tucker Carlson and his view of Donald Trump are displayed on a billboard in West Palm Beach, Fla.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/billboard-put-up-by-progressive-activist-group-moveon-that-news-photo/1479574560?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/tucker-carlson-fox-news-dominion-lawsuit-trump-5d6aed4bc7eb1f7a01702ebea86f37a1">In a text message</a> to Sidney Powell, one of Trump’s most ardent lawyers, Carlson wrote:</p>
<p>“You keep telling our viewers that millions of votes were changed by the software. I hope you will prove that very soon. You’ve convinced them that Trump will win. If you don’t have conclusive evidence of fraud at that scale, it’s a cruel and reckless thing to keep saying.” </p>
<p>But in a text message to his Fox News colleagues, Carlson was less hopeful:</p>
<p>“<a href="https://apnews.com/article/tucker-carlson-fox-news-dominion-lawsuit-trump-5d6aed4bc7eb1f7a01702ebea86f37a1">Sidney Powell is lying</a>,” he wrote. </p>
<p>At the time, nearly 70% of <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/70-percent-republicans-falsely-believe-stolen-election-trump/">Tucker’s target audience</a> believed that the election was stolen. </p>
<p>As a result, despite knowing the 2020 election was not stolen, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/03/07/tucker-carlson-doubles-down-on-2020-election-fraud-claims-with-jan-6-footage-despite-fox-defamation-lawsuit/?sh=8679b345e75e">Carlson continued to report</a> the exact opposite of what he knew to be false.</p>
<h2>A boorish Lemon</h2>
<p>In stark contrast to Carlson, Lemon positioned himself as CNN’s chief <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzZGuFJTs1I">liberal scolder</a> of the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLctkkxEDTs">Trump era</a>. </p>
<p>Much like Carlson, Lemon manipulated evidence to create stories that confirmed liberal biases against conservative media personalities, such as falsely reporting that <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/media/3664744-hurricane-expert-brushes-off-don-lemon-climate-change-question-i-want-to-talk-about-the-here-and-now/">Hurricane Ian</a>’s size was a result of climate change; that President Joe Biden “<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-don-lemon-partisan-biden-false-comments">misspoke</a>” rather than lied (which other <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/30/biden-falsely-claims-new-georgia-law-ends-voting-hours-early/">news outlets</a> claimed was the case) about Georgia’s voting procedures; that it is plausible that Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 disappeared into <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpVd7k1Uw6A">black hole</a>; and that <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/joe-rogan-don-lemon-cnn-ivermectin-sanjay-gupta-lying-1639240">CNN</a>’s <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/joe-rogan-considers-suing-cnn-190606533.html">reporting</a> on <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3043740/#:%7E:text=Discovered%2520in%2520the%2520late%252D1970s,of%2520billions%2520of%2520people%2520throughout">ivermectin</a> and popular podcaster Joe Rogan was <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/joe-rogan-don-lemon-cnn-ivermectin-sanjay-gupta-lying-1639240">accurate</a>.</p>
<p>CNN’s support for Lemon began to wane after a CNN broadcast on Feb. 16, 2023, when he declared that Haley was “past her prime.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman stands on a stage holding a microphone surrounded by people sitting on chairs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523859/original/file-20230502-16-k2bgvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523859/original/file-20230502-16-k2bgvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523859/original/file-20230502-16-k2bgvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523859/original/file-20230502-16-k2bgvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523859/original/file-20230502-16-k2bgvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523859/original/file-20230502-16-k2bgvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523859/original/file-20230502-16-k2bgvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks at a town hall event in New Hampshire on April 26, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-and-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1485559320?adppopup=true">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Feeling the disdain from his two female co-hosts, whom he had a long history of <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11716895/CNNs-Don-Lemon-seen-talking-host-ignoring-air-tension-builds-show.html">berating on and off camera</a>, <a href="https://msmagazine.com/2023/02/17/don-lemon-sexist-cnn/">Lemon clarified</a>: “That’s not according to me. … If you Google ‘when is a woman in her prime,’ it’ll say ‘20s, 30s and 40s.’” </p>
<p>Lemon was removed from the air so he could attend <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABG4fZSfIQQ">sensitivity trainings</a> to address his sexist attitudes. </p>
<p>An April 2023 <a href="https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/cnn-don-lemon-misogyny-history-nikki-haley-1235574286/">report from Variety</a> appeared to spell the end for Lemon on CNN. The report detailed other incidents of Lemon’s misogyny that included malicious texts, sexist mocking and vicious tirades aimed at <a href="https://tvline.com/2023/04/05/don-lemon-soledad-obrien-feud-cnn-controversy/">female co-workers</a>. </p>
<p>According to the report, <a href="https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/cnn-don-lemon-misogyny-history-nikki-haley-1235574286/">Lemon was accused</a> of threatening several female co-workers because they were hired for positions he felt he deserved. </p>
<p>In another incident, Lemon claimed during a 2008 editorial call with roughly 30 staffers that <a href="https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/cnn-don-lemon-misogyny-history-nikki-haley-1235574286/">Soledad O'Brien</a> should not host “Black in America” because she is not Black. O'Brien identifies as Afro-Cuban.</p>
<h2>Credibility gap</h2>
<p>In this age of hyperpartisanship, the revelations about Carlson and Lemon made it difficult for their networks to sell them as authentic ideological voices.</p>
<p>Furthermore, both of these individuals were a hassle for management. </p>
<p>At CNN, audience size for the show on which Lemon was co-host was shrinking for quite some time -– much like that for <a href="https://theconversation.com/cnn-was-just-the-latest-failed-attempt-of-the-cable-news-trailblazer-to-remain-relevant-182195">the network</a> in general. </p>
<p>At Fox News, Carlson’s texts revealed his disdain for the network’s <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/04/tucker-carlson-fired-after-calling-fox-news-exec-the-c-word.html">leadership</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/may/01/tucker-carlson-fox-nation-streaming-service">streaming platform</a>. Furthermore, since 2021, major companies such as Disney, Papa John’s, Poshmark and T-Mobile had refused to advertise on Carlson’s program.</p>
<p>Although a <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/04/28/american-approval-tucker-carlson-fired-fox-news">YouGov poll</a> found that viewers who cite Fox News as the cable news network they watch most often are more likely to disapprove – 50% – than approve – 29% – of Carlson being fired, Fox News Channel had good reason to believe it could replace Tucker and still find success with conservative audiences. </p>
<p>For one, an <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/most-arent-familiar-tucker-carlson-don-lemon-exits">Ipsos poll</a> found that non-Fox News Channel viewers are more likely to consider the channel as a news source now that Carlson has been fired. This means that the absence of Carlson may attract more audiences. </p>
<p>Furthermore, Fox News Channel has developed a formula for creating and replacing conservative personalities for decades, such as <a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/04/06/135181398/glenn-beck-to-leave-daily-fox-news-show">Glenn Beck</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/business/media/bill-oreilly-fox-news-allegations.html">Bill O'Reilly</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-america-ap-top-news-entertainment-megyn-kelly-business-a84a7250b109411591ed6b976be800a0">Megyn Kelly</a>.</p>
<p>Rather than celebrate the removal of Lemon and Carlson, audiences should be questioning what truths have some of the current on-air personalities had to sacrifice in order to stay employed. </p>
<p>For cable news personalities, partisanship – not journalism – can be a job requirement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204492/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nolan Higdon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since the 1980s, cable news networks have focused on hyperpartisan news coverage to attract core audiences in an increasingly fragmented media market.Nolan Higdon, Lecturer of History and Media Studies, California State University, East BayLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2009742023-03-27T12:24:16Z2023-03-27T12:24:16ZPresidential hopefuls are considering these 5 practical factors before launching their 2024 campaigns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516504/original/file-20230320-2896-80xbhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4970%2C3315&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley announces her presidential run in Charleston, S.C, on Feb. 15, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-u-n-ambassador-nikki-haley-announces-she-is-running-news-photo/1247163907?adppopup=true">Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2024 race for the White House is in motion. Democratic incumbent President Joe Biden said in October 2022 that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/21/politics/biden-2024-intention-reelection/index.html">he intends to seek a second term</a>, even if he stopped short of making an official announcement. But – in what is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/08/1160113954/2024-republican-presidential-candidates-who-is-running-tracker">expected to be a crowded Republican field</a> – only a few candidates had announced their bids by late March 2023.</p>
<p>Former President Donald Trump, the last Republican to hold the office and party standard-bearer, <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?524197-1/president-trump-announces-candidacy-president-2024">said in November 2022 that he will seek the party’s nomination</a>. And Republican Nikki Haley, one-time U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina, announced in February 2023 that <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/14/nikki-haley-2024-presidential-campaign-00082715">she is running.</a></p>
<p>In the weeks and months ahead, more presidential hopefuls likely will enter the race. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, for example, is <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3866405-desantis-lays-out-timeline-for-2024-decision/">expected to jump</a> in <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3866405-desantis-lays-out-timeline-for-2024-decision/">after his state’s legislative session ends</a> in May. And Sen. Tim Scott, of South Carolina, appears <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/22/tim-scott-presidential-announcement-next-steps-00088175">ready to announce soon</a>.</p>
<p>Each candidate, along with their campaigns, makes decisions about the right time to jump into the race. But how do they decide?</p>
<p>The Conversation asked Rob Mellen Jr., a political scientist who studies the presidency, to explain five things presidential hopefuls consider before running for the highest office in the land.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516509/original/file-20230320-14-ouu5w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Biden, in dark blue jacket, red and blue striped tie, and white shirt, speaks at a podium adorned with the Presidential Seal in front of two American flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516509/original/file-20230320-14-ouu5w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516509/original/file-20230320-14-ouu5w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516509/original/file-20230320-14-ouu5w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516509/original/file-20230320-14-ouu5w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516509/original/file-20230320-14-ouu5w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516509/original/file-20230320-14-ouu5w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516509/original/file-20230320-14-ouu5w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden speaks on March 14, 2023, in Monterey Park, Calif.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-delivers-remarks-at-the-boys-and-girls-news-photo/1473568023?phrase=Joe">Mario Tama via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>1. Incumbent eligibility</h2>
<p>The first thing potential presidential candidates consider is whether the incumbent president or, for the party out of office, the standard-bearer, is eligible to seek office.</p>
<p>Candidates who oppose incumbents - and popular past presidents of the same party - face nearly insurmountable obstacles, largely due to incumbent popularity. It offers officeholders seeking reelection a significant advantage. Between 1952 and 2000, for example, incumbent presidents <a href="https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022558810957">enjoyed a 6 percentage point bonus</a> in the popular vote.</p>
<p>Typically, incumbents have advantages because of their track records, name recognition – which affects a candidate’s level of voter and financial support – and their <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20203009">ability to direct federal money to the geographic areas that support them</a>. </p>
<p>While the incumbent’s advantages typically cause potential challengers to think twice before running for president, there have been exceptions. In 1980, Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts unsuccessfully challenged incumbent President Jimmy Carter for the Democratic nomination. Kennedy failed, though, and his bid <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/17/686186156/how-ted-kennedys-80-challenge-to-president-carter-broke-the-democratic-party">divided the Democratic Party</a>.</p>
<p>Republican Ronald Reagan, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/1980/nov/05/usa.alexbrummer">former governor of California, beat Carter</a> in the general election and became the nation’s 40th president.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516507/original/file-20230320-2988-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="With a group of people standing nearby, Ron DeSantis signs a copy of his book." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516507/original/file-20230320-2988-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516507/original/file-20230320-2988-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516507/original/file-20230320-2988-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516507/original/file-20230320-2988-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516507/original/file-20230320-2988-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516507/original/file-20230320-2988-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516507/original/file-20230320-2988-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signs a copy of his book in Des Moines, Iowa, on March 10, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/florida-gov-ron-desantis-signs-books-in-des-moines-on-march-news-photo/1248482975?phrase=Ron">Rachel Mummey/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>2. The number of possible opponents</h2>
<p>Potential candidates also consider the number of opponents they will have to compete against. A crowded field with numerous candidates makes it difficult for more than a three or four to gain traction before the first primary contests, which are usually held in January and February of election year.</p>
<p>If they are not the incumbent, a party standard-bearer or someone with otherwise significant name recognition, candidates with a lot of opponents typically find it tough to get their messages across, especially if they are competing against political stars.</p>
<p>During the 2016 Republican campaign, for example, <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-republican-field-dwindled-from-17-to-donald-trump/">17 candidates entered the race</a>, but only Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz stood out. Because of Trump’s celebrity status – earned from years of marketing himself as a billionaire and through reality television fame – Trump got a lot of <a href="https://www.salon.com/2019/04/13/the-news-media-helped-trump-win-in-2016-heres-what-needs-to-change-for-2020/">attention from the media</a>. His bombastic <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/06/14/trump-owns-a-shrinking-republican-party/">personality also played well</a> with a segment of the Republican base. He <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2016.1224417">drew significant media attention</a> that other candidates could not match. And Cruz gained traction by <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/01/politics/iowa-caucuses-2016-highlights/index.html">finishing first in the Iowa caucuses</a>, which allowed him to be competitive in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries that followed.</p>
<h2>3. Likely voters</h2>
<p>Candidates have a few ways to identify their likely voters. They can visit early contest states and test their messages, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163294512/donald-trump-ron-desantis-iowa-caucus-2024-presidential-race-republican-campaign">just like Trump, DeSantis</a>, Haley and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/19/us/politics/haley-scott-south-carolina.html">Scott have been doing</a> in Iowa and South Carolina. Or, they can deliver speeches at major gatherings of party loyalists, such as the annual <a href="https://www.conservative.org">Conservative Political Action Conference</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/registering-candidate/testing-the-waters-possible-candidacy/">Conducting polls</a> is another way for candidates to figure out how broad, or narrow, their bases of support are.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516508/original/file-20230320-2985-ef3w87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Standing in front of the U.S. and Iowa flags, Tim Scott speaks before the podium to a large crowd." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516508/original/file-20230320-2985-ef3w87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516508/original/file-20230320-2985-ef3w87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516508/original/file-20230320-2985-ef3w87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516508/original/file-20230320-2985-ef3w87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516508/original/file-20230320-2985-ef3w87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516508/original/file-20230320-2985-ef3w87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516508/original/file-20230320-2985-ef3w87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina speaks in Des Moines, Iowa, on Feb. 22, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-tim-scott-speaks-during-a-faith-in-america-tour-event-news-photo/1247428194?adppopup=true">KC McGinnis/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Campaign Finance</h2>
<p>Most presidential candidates also have to figure out how to finance what could become a lengthy bid for the party nomination. The main question they have to answer for themselves is, where will the money come from for sustained primary battles? </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/us/politics/republican-presidential-candidates-new-york.html">Connecting with wealthy backers</a> who can can contribute large sums to a <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Super_PAC">super PAC </a> that supports the candidate can be the key to a candidate’s staying power.</p>
<p>Sometimes, committed large donors enable candidates to stay in the race much longer than expected, just as having backing from wealthy supporters and a super PAC prolonged former House Speaker <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/billionaire-adelson-gives-millions-to-gingrich-super-pac/2012/01/07/gIQAXI6rhP_story.html">Newt Gingrich’s failed presidential</a> bid in 2012.</p>
<p>But, as Gingrich’s run proved, having the backing of a super PAC, which is <a href="https://campaignlegal.org/update/super-pacs-cant-coordinate-candidates-heres-what-happened-when-one-did">legally prohibited from coordinating</a> efforts with candidates and their campaigns, is not a guarantee of success. </p>
<p>Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s 2016 campaign had the backing of the super PAC Right to Rise <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/jeb-bush-right-to-rise-super-pac-campaign-117753">with a budget of over US$100 million</a>. But his run for president ended after a disappointing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/south-carolina">fourth-place finish in the South Carolina</a> primary.</p>
<p>Whether or not potential candidates have access to significant financial support influences their decisions to enter the race. It is extremely expensive to run a competitive campaign because of costs associated with staffing, travel, advertising and more. But candidates who fare well in the early contests <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123406000251">tend to raise more money and survive longer</a> in the primary process.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516510/original/file-20230320-16-icum9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Former President Trump, wearing a MAGA hat and standing in front of a pallet of bottled water, speaks to a crowd of supporters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516510/original/file-20230320-16-icum9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516510/original/file-20230320-16-icum9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516510/original/file-20230320-16-icum9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516510/original/file-20230320-16-icum9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516510/original/file-20230320-16-icum9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516510/original/file-20230320-16-icum9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516510/original/file-20230320-16-icum9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump delivers remarks on Feb. 22, 2023, to a crowd in East Palestine, Ohio, site of the Norfolk Southern train derailment earlier that month.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-president-donald-trump-stands-next-to-a-pallet-of-news-photo/1247391738?adppopup=true">Michael Swensen via Getty Images News</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. The mood of the electorate</h2>
<p>The mood of the electorate also influences potential candidates’ decisions about whether to run. If the incumbent president is very popular – a rarity in modern American politics – it may scare off some would-be challengers. </p>
<p>But the public can be fickle. An incumbent may be popular a year before the general election, just as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1991/03/06/bush-popularity-surges-with-gulf-victory/40a154e7-7668-409c-b89c-4bebb2c2a159/">George H.W. Bush was in early 1991</a>, only to see their popularity fade the following year. Bush <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1992/11/04/us/1992-elections-president-overview-clinton-captures-presidency-with-huge.html">lost the election to Bill Clinton in 1992</a>. </p>
<p>The political fortunes of unpopular incumbents also can shift. In 1983, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1983/01/25/reagans-popularity-rating-drops/5fb81e9f-6fcd-4cf7-b2a3-8279c1cb2205/">Reagan’s favorability ratings were very weak</a>, but he rebounded by 1984 and beat Democratic candidate and former Vice President Walter Mondale <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1984/11/07/reagan-wins-reelection-in-landslide-largest-electoral-college-total-ever/894b05ad-417d-41c3-8c98-d1bdfefae901/">in a 49-state landslide victory</a>.</p>
<p>During presidential election years when there is no incumbent, as in 2008 and 2016, potential candidates’ calculations don’t have to include incumbent popularity. In 2016, both Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont who sought the Democratic nomination, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/8/18/9172653/trump-populism-immigration">were able to tap into an electorate looking for change </a> by appealing to supporters with populist messages. </p>
<p>Trump’s effort <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-set-become-gop-s-official-presidential-nominee-n612616">successfully secured the Republican nomination</a>, while Sanders’ effort came up short as the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/06/politics/hillary-clinton-nomination-2016/index.html">Democratic party favored its first female nominee</a>, former Sen. Hillary Clinton.</p>
<p>From determining whether an incumbent president is vulnerable to a challenge from within the party to the likelihood of defeating an incumbent of the opposite party, a significant amount of strategic planning is involved in any effort to win the presidency. And the planning begins long before the day candidates announce their intention to run.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200974/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robbin Mellen Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Senators, governors, representatives and past presidents have to weigh multiple factors before declaring their 2024 run for president. Campaign financing is one of them.Robbin Mellen Jr., Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of South FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1990862023-03-03T13:29:15Z2023-03-03T13:29:15ZRepublicans are trying to build a multiracial right – will it work?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512990/original/file-20230301-2006-wjxpt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2399%2C95%2C5563%2C4178&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign event on Feb. 16, 2023, in Exeter, N.H.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-nikki-haley-speaks-during-news-photo/1466842331?phrase=haley%20nikki&adppopup=true">Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former Republican South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley <a href="https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1625461899218280448">launched her bid for president recently in a video</a> that began by describing the racial division that marked her small hometown of Bamberg, South Carolina. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, another presumptive GOP candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has continued his crusade against “woke ideology,” most recently <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/20/nyregion/desantis-visit-nyc-philadelphia-chicago.html">on a tour of Pennsylvania</a>, New York and Illinois, presenting himself as a defender of law and order.</p>
<p>Taken together, these events present a fundamental question about the future of the Republican Party.</p>
<p>Does it continue to move rightward, exciting its base by stoking white racial grievance? </p>
<p>Or does it pursue a multiracial strategy that can expand the party’s reach?</p>
<p>Recent trends in the GOP suggest that it wants to do both – and that indeed the two strategies are not so much at odds as it might appear. </p>
<h2>Right-wing candidates of color on the rise</h2>
<p>In a striking development, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/21/michigan-christian-nationalists-00083251">Michigan Republicans selected</a> in February 2023 a Christian nationalist and election denier as chair of the state party.</p>
<p>This rightward shift of the party is not itself surprising. </p>
<p>What’s striking is that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/20/politics/kristina-karamo-michigan-gop-chair/index.html">Kristina Karamo</a>, a Black woman, was elected over a white male candidate who also had <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/18/michigan-gop-chair-karamo-trump/">Trump’s endorsement</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A smiling Black woman stands in front of a group of white men and women." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512983/original/file-20230301-24-mxvpgn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512983/original/file-20230301-24-mxvpgn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512983/original/file-20230301-24-mxvpgn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512983/original/file-20230301-24-mxvpgn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512983/original/file-20230301-24-mxvpgn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512983/original/file-20230301-24-mxvpgn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512983/original/file-20230301-24-mxvpgn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kristina Karamo is all smiles as she watches the vote count during the Michigan Republican Convention on Feb. 18, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kristina-karamo-reacts-as-she-sees-more-votes-posted-in-her-news-photo/1247317653?phrase=Kristina%20Karamo&adppopup=true">Sarah Rice/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The same voters who elevated Karamo also cheered <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/01/1077166847/trump-escalates-racist-rhetoric-plays-on-white-grievance-at-recent-rallies">Trump’s supercharged racist rhetoric</a> against Black people, immigrants, Mexicans, Muslims and nonwhite countries more generally during his campaigns and presidency. </p>
<p>And yet Karamo is hardly an anomaly. </p>
<p>While the party has made no substantive changes or moderation to its politics or policies around long-standing racial justice issues, it is slowly but steadily <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2022/0602/GOP-makes-gains-with-minorities.-Will-it-change-the-party">growing more racially diverse</a> in its grassroots base, elected officials and opinion leaders. </p>
<p>In the 2022 midterm elections, for instance, a new Republican majority in the House of Representatives was secured by a number of <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/169366/black-latino-candidates-gop-house">Black and Latino candidates</a> who ran strong races while avoiding the extremist label. </p>
<p>Though the U.S. Senate race in Georgia saw Black GOP candidate <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/07/georgia-senate-runoff-walker-warnock/">Herschel Walker lose</a> to Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, there were seven victorious Black or Latino Republican newcomers to the House, four of whom won seats previously held by Democrats. </p>
<p>Most notable among the growing number of Republican lawmakers of color is <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/byron-donalds-house-speaker-political-views-rcna64368">Byron Donalds</a>, a two-term representative from Florida. He <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-distortion-of-martin-luther-king-jr-s-words-enables-more-not-less-racial-division-within-american-society-195177">was nominated by a GOP colleague</a> to serve as speaker of the House during the chaotic several days and 15 rounds of voting that preceded <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/06/1147470516/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-of-the-house-vote">Kevin McCarthy’s election</a> to that role.</p>
<p>Relatively young and new to national politics, these GOP politicians are largely aligned with Trump on substantive issues.</p>
<p>What’s more, none downplayed the issue of race, but rather are using their biographies and experiences of racial discrimination to legitimize their conservative bona fides.</p>
<h2>The GOP race card</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?525936-1/nikki-haley-launches-2024-presidential-campaign-charleston-south-carolina">Haley’s speech</a>, she decried a national “self-loathing” that is “more dangerous than any pandemic” in regard to the country’s racial history. </p>
<p>“Every day we’re told America is flawed, rotten and full of hate,” Haley said. “Joe and Kamala even say America’s racist. Nothing could be further from the truth. Take it from me, the first female minority governor in history.” </p>
<p>Meanwhile, African American <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/02/26/tim-scott-2024-presidential-election/11331016002/">Republican Sen. Tim Scott</a> also appears close to entering the race for the GOP presidential nomination. </p>
<p>Like Haley, Scott uses his own biography to undercut Democratic claims to represent people of color. </p>
<p>“For those of you on the left,” Scott said in a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/22/tim-scott-iowa-2024/">February 2023 speech in Iowa</a>, “You can call me a prop, you can call me a token, you can call me the n-word. You can question my blackness. You can even call me ‘Uncle Tim.’ Just understand, your words are no match for my evidence. … The truth of my life disproves your lies.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black man dressed in a dark suit standing in front of several American flags appears on a television screen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512985/original/file-20230301-22-3mtp2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512985/original/file-20230301-22-3mtp2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512985/original/file-20230301-22-3mtp2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512985/original/file-20230301-22-3mtp2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512985/original/file-20230301-22-3mtp2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512985/original/file-20230301-22-3mtp2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512985/original/file-20230301-22-3mtp2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Sen. Tim Scott delivers a virtual speech during the 2020 Republican National Convention.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aug-24-2020-photo-taken-in-arlington-virginia-the-united-news-photo/1228207341?phrase=senator%20tim%20scott%20south%20carolina&adppopup=true">Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Neither Haley nor Scott is running as the colorblind conservatives of years past.</p>
<p>Both embrace their racial identities and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/06/24/republicans-say-goodbye-to-the-confederate-flag-and-hello-to-a-new-strategy/">talk openly about racial issues</a> and politics, with little damage to their electoral prospects. Both have won large pluralities of conservative white voters in their states. </p>
<p>But the path ahead is mired with challenges and vexing contradictions. </p>
<p>Will a national GOP electorate that has cheered on a host of demeaning attacks on minority groups from its leadership support the candidacies of figures like Haley and Scott? </p>
<h2>Colorblind conservative voters?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.umass.edu/news/article/new-national-umass-amherst-poll-issues-finds-one-third-americans-believe-great">Polls show</a> that roughly 70% of Republicans believe the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/replacement-theory-isnt-new-3-things-to-know-about-how-this-once-fringe-conspiracy-has-become-more-mainstream-183492">great replacement theory</a>,” a baseless belief that the Democratic Party is attempting to replace the white electorate in the United States with nonwhite immigrants. </p>
<p>Those same conservative voters are consistently motivated by <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-white-victimhood-fuels-republican-politics/">white racial grievance</a> in issues concerning public education, law enforcement, voting rights and affirmative action. </p>
<p>Yet studies also suggest that white conservatives will indeed support candidates of color, not out of a commitment to racial justice or even representation, but because they see it as a way to advance partisan and ideological interests. </p>
<p>A 2015 article in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/79/1/28/2330044">Public Opinion Quarterly</a> presented data showing that these voters “are either more supportive of minority Republicans or just as likely to vote for a minority as they are a white Republican.”</p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/708952?journalCode=jop">a 2021 study</a> showed that under the right conditions, “racially resentful [white] voters prefer to vote for a Black candidate over a white competitor.”</p>
<p>These studies suggest that the Republican electorate is fertile ground for certain candidates of color who can effectively link their biographies to stock conservative accounts of individual uplift, opposition to social welfare – and the demonization of liberalism and liberals.</p>
<h2>Voters of color matter</h2>
<p>How about voters of color? </p>
<p>Will they continue to view the GOP as a racist party inhospitable to their interests? </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html">Exit polls after the 2020 election</a> showed that Trump increased his gains among all groups of minority voters in comparison to 2016, capturing 1 in 4 voters of color nationally. </p>
<p>He won the votes of nearly <a href="https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/320903/black-turnout-2020-election.aspx">1 in 5 Black men</a>, and roughly one-third of the Asian American and Latino electorate. </p>
<p>While Republican strategists and candidates are attempting to creatively reframe the relationship of race to modern-day conservatism, none have articulated ideas or policies that directly confront the issues facing a majority of African Americans and other people of color.</p>
<p>Those issues include a <a href="https://www.americanbar.org/groups/young_lawyers/publications/after-the-bar/public-service/racial-disparities-criminal-justice-how-lawyers-can-help/">predatory criminal justice system</a>, the evisceration of <a href="https://oll.libertyfund.org/page/liberty-matters-systemic-racism-in-education-and-health-care">funding for health care and education</a>, the existential threats of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220125-why-climate-change-is-inherently-racist">climate change</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/06/politics/january-6-race-deconstructed-newsletter/index.html">attacks against multiracial democracy</a>. </p>
<p>It’s unclear whether those issues will find a way into conservative talking points.</p>
<p>What is clear is that political identities determine political interests – not the other way around.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199086/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Will the GOP continue to stoke white grievance, or pursue a multiracial strategy that can expand its reach? Recent trends suggest that it can do both at once.Joseph Lowndes, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of OregonDaniel Martinez HoSang, Professor of Ethnicity, Race & Migration, Yale UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1508202021-02-26T13:27:19Z2021-02-26T13:27:19ZA less Trumpy version of Trumpism might be the future of the Republican Party<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385951/original/file-20210223-13-8mn2wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C2968%2C2047&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is Sen. Marco Rubio, espousing a polished populism, the future of the GOP?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-marco-rubio-speaks-before-the-arrival-of-u-s-president-news-photo/1283437043?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, but his populist ideas may continue to animate the Republican Party.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/one-nation-two-realities-9780190677176?cc=us&lang=en&">scholars of American beliefs and elections</a>, we can envision a less Trumpy version of Trumpism holding sway over the party in coming years. We call it “polished populism.”</p>
<p>Populism is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0002716216662639">folk-politics</a> based on the premise that ordinary citizens are wiser and more virtuous than supposedly corrupt and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/future-populism-2020s/604393/">self-serving elites</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/10/we-the-people-the-battle-to-define-populism">Populist rhetoric</a> is often expressed in cruder, coarser language than ordinary political speech – less like a politician on a stage and <a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/the-conversation/sd-most-populist-lines-from-trumps-speech-20170120-htmlstory.html">more like a guy in a bar</a>. </p>
<p>Trump, a prime practitioner of populist rhetoric, took this to an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZRXESV3R74">extreme</a> with the shorthand of Twitter and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/insider/Trump-twitter-insults-list.html">insults</a> of the locker room.</p>
<p>Polished populists take a different approach, arguing for the <a href="https://www.amacad.org/news/populism-and-future-american-politics">same policies</a> that Trump did – <a href="https://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/3/27/15037232/trump-populist-appeal-culture-economy">limiting immigration</a>, redistributing wealth toward the <a href="https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2020/article/populism-puzzle">working class</a> rather than just the poor, opposing the woke policies of <a href="http://yris.yira.org/comments/2666">social justice movements</a>, promoting “America First” foreign and <a href="https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/populism_and_the_economics_of_globalization.pdf">trade policies</a> – but without his overtly antagonistic language. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/bulwark-never-trump-republicans-biden/617025/">Some Republicans</a> are now <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/05/the-never-trumpers-next-move/609064/">arguing for a rejection of populism and a return to traditional conservatism</a>. Those <a href="https://www.nhbr.com/traditional-republican-values/">long-standing GOP priorities</a> include limited government, strong national defense of American interests abroad, religious values and, perhaps most importantly, ordinary political personalities.</p>
<p>For two reasons – the GOP’s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/">narrow electoral defeat in 2020</a> and the <a href="https://www.axios.com/republican-party-demographics-threat-trump-racism-1524a8a1-c2f1-4183-896f-107420e2d50a.html">changing demographics of the Republican Party</a> – we believe that populist policies, if not rhetoric, will continue to be a dominant theme of the Republican Party.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Trump at a massive rally just before the election." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump smiles after speaking during an election rally on Nov. 3, 2020, in Grand Rapids, Mich.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-smiles-after-speaking-during-a-rally-news-photo/1229431380?adppopup=true">Kamil Krzaczynski/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Populism versus traditional conservatism</h2>
<p>The contemporary <a href="https://www.wpr.org/how-reagan-helped-usher-new-conservatism-american-politics">conservatism associated with Ronald Reagan</a> in the 1980s and <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/04/20020430.html">George W. Bush in the 2000s</a> has several facets and factions, but it can be summed up in the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/A-Citizens-Guide-to-American-Ideology-Conservatism-and-Liberalism-in-Contemporary/Marietta/p/book/9780415899000">phrase</a>, “You keep what you earn, it’s a dangerous world, and God is good.”</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.routledge.com/A-Citizens-Guide-to-American-Ideology-Conservatism-and-Liberalism-in-Contemporary/Marietta/p/book/9780415899000">economic, national defense and social conservatives</a> of previous decades tended to agree that human nature is untrustworthy and society is fragile, so the U.S. needs to defend against external enemies and internal decline. </p>
<p>Populist conservatism accepts those views but adds something different: the interests and perceptions of “ordinary” people against “elites.” <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-populism-and-why-does-it-have-a-bad-reputation-109874">So populism</a> rejects the notion of a natural aristocracy of wealth and education, replacing it with the idea that people it considers elites, including career politicians, bureaucrats, journalists and academics, have been promoting their own interests at the expense of regular folk.</p>
<h2>The identity divide</h2>
<p>The recent rise of populism in America has been driven in part by a clear economic reality: <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality">The expansion of wealth over the last 40 years</a> has gone almost entirely to the upper reaches of society. At the same time, <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/">the middle has stagnated or declined economically</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-erupts-when-people-feel-disconnected-and-disrespected-151423">populist interpretation</a> is that elites benefited from the globalization and technological advancements they encouraged, while the advantages of those trends bypassed ordinary working people. Calls for trade protections and national borders appeal to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1468-4446.12319">Americans who feel left behind</a>.</p>
<p>Populism also has a <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-political-divide-on-both-sides-of-atlantic-populists-v-cosmopolitans-59876">cultural aspect</a>: rejection of the perceived <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022103116305509">condescension</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/opinion/education-prejudice.html">smugness</a> of the “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-highly-educated-elites-are-stuck-in-a-nightmare-of-their-own-making/2020/11/13/bcde3c98-25d7-11eb-a688-5298ad5d580a_story.html">highly educated elite</a>.”</p>
<p>In that sense, populism is driven by identity (who someone believes they are like, and perhaps more importantly, who they are not like). For populists, the like-minded are ordinary folk – middle income, middle-brow educations at public high schools and state universities, often middle-of-the-country – and the dissimilar are the products of expensive educations and urban lifestyles.</p>
<p>While traditional conservatism <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/15/opinion/politics/never-trump-republican-party.html?">has not vanished from the GOP</a>, populist perceptions dominate the new <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/gop-rapidly-becoming-blue-collar-party-here-s-what-means-n1258468">working-class foundations</a> of the party. And those reflect the <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/527863-the-diploma-divide-in-american-politics">emerging divide in education</a>. </p>
<p>The base of the Republican Party has shifted from more wealthy and educated Americans to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2018/11/education-gap-explains-american-politics/575113/">voters without college degrees</a>. In the 1990s, whites who did not attend college tended to back Democrat Bill Clinton, but in 2016 they <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/">supported Republican Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton</a> by 39 percentage points. In 2020, it was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html">roughly the same</a> for Trump over Biden. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2002, President George W. Bush spoke about the ideals represented in his ‘compassionate conservatism’ to representatives from local community groups in Cleveland, Ohio.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-george-w-bush-delivers-a-speech-to-about-3-000-news-photo/51684553?adppopup=true">Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The 2020 outcome and the GOP future</h2>
<p>We believe the Republican Party will be slow to move away from this new identity.</p>
<p>Even after a pandemic, a recession, an impeachment, four years of anti-immigration sentiment and the Black Lives Matter protests, Trump still received <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-popular-vote-record-barack-obama-us-presidential-election-donald-trump/">more votes than any presidential candidate in history not named Joe Biden</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/04/politics/biden-popular-vote-margin-7-million/index.html">Biden’s overall victory was by a margin of 7 million votes</a>. But his victory in the Electoral College relied on a total of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/did-biden-win-little-or-lot-answer-yes-n1251845">45,000 votes in three states</a>. This was similar to Trump’s narrow 2016 Electoral College margin of 77,000 votes, also in three states. A strong Republican candidate, a foreign policy problem for the incumbent Democrat or a small piece of luck could shift the presidency back to the other party.</p>
<p>Support for Republicans even <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-increases-share-black-hispanic-vote-1544698">grew somewhat among traditionally Democratic African American and Hispanic voters</a>, despite the GOP’s anti-Black Lives Matter and anti-immigrant rhetoric. </p>
<p>Clearly, Trumpism was <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-the-2020-election/">not repudiated by voters in the way that Democrats had hoped</a>. It is entirely possible that if the pandemic had not occurred – which was a major source of the decline in his support – Donald Trump <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-19-led-to-donald-trumps-defeat-150110">would still be in the White House</a>. </p>
<p>The GOP could conclude that its loss was only due to an outside event and not a fundamental rejection of policy. That would give the party little incentive to change course, aside from changing the face on the poster.</p>
<p>Over the next four years we believe the GOP will solidify the transition to a populist base, though not without resistance from traditional conservatives. </p>
<p>Republican victory in a future presidential election would likely require an alliance between traditional and populist conservatives, with both groups turning out to vote. The question is which one will lead the coalition. </p>
<p>The competition for the 2024 Republican nomination will likely also be a contest between these two party bases and ideologies, with the emerging winner defining the post-Trump GOP.</p>
<h2>The 2024 standard bearers</h2>
<p>The Republican contenders for the 2024 nomination and the new leadership of the GOP include a broad range of populists versus traditional conservatives. </p>
<p>Perhaps a leading indicator of the move toward polished populism is the shift in the rhetoric employed by <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio">Marco Rubio</a>. </p>
<p>The senator from Florida was once a traditional conservative, but has shifted toward populism after his trouncing by Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary. Recently he argued that “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters%20https:/thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters">the future of the party is based on a multiethnic, multiracial, working-class coalition</a>,” defined as “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters">normal, everyday people who don’t want to live in a city where there is no police department, where people rampage through the streets every time they are upset about something</a>.”</p>
<p>The opposing trend toward rejecting Trumpist populism is exemplified by the shift in the <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2021/magazine-nikki-haleys-choice/">arguments made</a> by <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nikki-haley-americans-woke-left-biden-president">Nikki Haley</a>. Haley, the U.N. ambassador under the Trump administration and former South Carolina governor, has <a href="https://6abc.com/nikki-haley-trump-interview-politico-us-capitol-riots/10333025/">rejected Trump’s leadership</a>, now arguing that “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538573-haley-breaks-with-trump-we-shouldnt-have-followed-him">we shouldn’t have followed him</a>.”</p>
<p>These two Republicans and <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/531796-five-gop-contenders-other-than-trump-for-2024">several others</a> see a potential president in the mirror. Which one <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/531796-five-gop-contenders-other-than-trump-for-2024">mirrors the current GOP</a> will depend on the realignment or retrenchment between the populists and the traditionalists.</p>
<p>Polished populism – Trump’s policies without his personality – may be the future of the GOP’s identity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150820/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump’s ticket to the White House was a coarse version of populism. Will his successors in the GOP be different – or simply present a more polished version of his antagonistic rhetoric?Morgan Marietta, Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass LowellDavid C. Barker, Professor of Government and Director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.