tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/peter-dutton-5337/articlesPeter Dutton – The Conversation2024-03-28T01:33:56Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2266222024-03-28T01:33:56Z2024-03-28T01:33:56ZFederal Essential poll the worst for Labor this term; SA Labor gains Dunstan at byelection<p>A national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted March 20–24 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 50–44 lead including undecided, a reversal of a 48–47 Labor lead last fortnight. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (up one), 29% Labor (down three), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (down one), 3% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (up one).</p>
<p>Excluding undecided, this poll would be 53–47 to the Coalition. It is easily the worst poll of this term for Labor. Weak flows to Labor on respondent allocated preferences partly explain this result, with analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1772391006018892059">Kevin Bonham’s estimate</a> using 2022 election preference flows at about a 50.5–49.5 Coalition lead.</p>
<p>Essential’s poll was probably too favourable for the Coalition this week, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-drops-to-a-51-49-lead-in-newspoll-labor-chooses-to-concede-tasmanian-election-226463">Newspoll gave Labor</a> its second worst result this term: a 51–49 lead. In this week’s four federal polls, only Resolve had an improvement for Labor since the last time they did a poll.</p>
<p>Respondents were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/26-march-2024">asked to give a rating</a> of 0 to 10 for Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton, then ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 35–32 negative (35–33 in February), while Dutton was at 34–31 negative (33–32 previously).</p>
<p>On addressing climate change, 38% (up two since October) thought Australia was doing enough, 35% (down three) said we are not doing enough and 18% (up one) that we are doing too much. During Coalition governments, not doing enough had a large lead.</p>
<p>Among those who have social media, 29% thought it had a negative impact on their lives and 20% a positive impact. By 45–23, respondents supported a ban on TikTok in Australia. On regulation of social media companies, 57% thought they should be regulated more, 34% the current regulation is about right and 9% wanted them regulated less.</p>
<h2>Resolve poll: Labor gains after preferences, but Albanese slides</h2>
<p>In a federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/pm-s-personal-rating-slips-as-frustration-with-major-parties-grows-20240325-p5fexm.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted March 21–24 from a sample of 1,610, the Coalition had 35% of the primary vote (down two since February), Labor 32% (down two), the Greens 13% (up two), One Nation 5% (down one), the UAP 2% (up one), independents 11% (up two) and others 2% (down two).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 preference flows would give Labor about a 53.5–46.5 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since February. Resolve has been easily the pollster most favourable to Labor.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval was down five points to -11, with 49% giving him a poor rating and 38% a good one. Dutton’s net approval improved two points to -9. Albanese led as preferred PM by 40–30 (39–32 in February).</p>
<p>The Liberals led Labor on <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">economic management</a> by 37–25 (38–27 in February). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 28–22 (30–26 in February).</p>
<p>In a question on <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-ute-tax-thrown-into-reverse-as-voters-lukewarm-on-new-emission-rules-20240325-p5ff66.html">efficiency standards for vehicles</a>, we are not told how the new vehicle efficiency standard is defined for poll respondents. This means we don’t know what the 41–22 opposed to this standard were asked.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and additional Newspoll question</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/federal-voting-intention-support-for-the-alp-l-np-coalition-is-even-in-late-march-alp-50-cf-l-np-50">Morgan poll</a>, conducted March 18–24 from a sample of 1,633, had a 50–50 tie, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 31.5% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 4.5% One Nation (down one), 7.5% independents (down 1.5) and 4.5% others (steady).</p>
<p>As with Essential, respondent allocated preferences were weak for Labor in Morgan. An estimate based on 2022 election preference flows would give Labor about a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>I covered the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-drops-to-a-51-49-lead-in-newspoll-labor-chooses-to-concede-tasmanian-election-226463">previous Newspoll on Monday</a>. In an <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-bare-majority-of-voters-favour-fixed-fouryear-federal-parliamentary-terms/news-story/a8cc9bd94ef8af46debbce0510cc89a2">additional question</a>, 51% were in favour of changing the term of the federal house of representatives from the current three-year term to a four-year fixed term, while 37% were against.</p>
<p>Changing the terms of the house would require a referendum, and support usually slumps as a referendum approaches. A bare majority in favour currently is not a good position for referendum success.</p>
<h2>Labor gains Dunstan at SA byelection and Tasmania</h2>
<p>A byelection occurred last Saturday in former South Australian Liberal premier’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunstan-by-election-2024">seat of Dunstan</a>, which he won by a narrow 50.5–49.5 margin at the 2022 election. Labor gained it by 50.8–49.2, a 1.4% swing to Labor. This is a government gain from an opposition at a byelection. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 43.5% Liberals (down 3.2%), 32.1% Labor (down 3.0%), 19.1% Greens (up 5.5%) and 3.2% Animal Justice (new). Counting of <a href="https://result.ecsa.sa.gov.au/">election day polling booths</a> on Saturday night had given Labor a 54.0–46.0 lead, but declaration votes counted after election day gave the Liberals a 54.0–46.0 lead. Labor won because there were more votes cast on election day.</p>
<p>In Tasmania, the Hare-Clark distribution of preferences won’t start until after the deadline for receipt of postals next Tuesday. I expect this to be completed by the end of next week. Then we will know the identity of the 35 Tasmanian lower house members. I covered how the Hare-Clark system works in the article on last Saturday’s election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority</a>
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<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor well down but still leads</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/slip-in-labor-support-pushes-pesutto-s-team-ahead-for-first-time-in-years-20240327-p5ffl9.html?btis=">Victorian state Resolve poll</a> for The Age, conducted with the federal February and March Resolve polls from a sample of 1,107, gave the Coalition 35% of the primary vote (up four since December), Labor 33% (down four), the Greens 13% (up two), independents 12% (down two) and others 7% (up one).</p>
<p>No two party estimate was provided by Resolve, but <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1773104858314240045">analyst Kevin Bonham estimated</a> 53–47 to Labor using 2022 election preference flows, a 3.5-point gain for the Coalition <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-regains-lead-in-newspoll-after-tie-but-freshwater-has-a-50-50-tie-219404">since December</a>. No mention is made of preferences in The Age’s article.</p>
<p>In June 2023, the Coalition’s primary vote was 26% with Labor on 41% in this poll, so the Coalition has recovered much ground. This Resolve poll is similar to a mid-March <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-drops-to-a-51-49-lead-in-newspoll-labor-chooses-to-concede-tasmanian-election-226463">Redbridge poll</a> that gave Labor a 54–46 lead.</p>
<p>Labor premier Jacinta Allan led the Liberals’ John Pesutto by 34–25 as preferred premier (34–22 in December). By 44–14, respondents thought Victoria’s outlook would get worse in the next 12 months, rather than improve. By 34–19, the said their personal situation would get worse rather than better.</p>
<p>“Voters overwhelmingly blamed the state government over their federal counterparts and private electricity providers” for the February electricity blackouts, and more than 75% favoured spending money to bury power lines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226622/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Coalition lead Labor 53–47, excluding undecided, in a federal Essential poll.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2264632024-03-24T22:31:34Z2024-03-24T22:31:34ZLabor drops to a 51–49 lead in Newspoll; Labor chooses to concede Tasmanian election<p>A <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-labor-heading-toward-minority-government-at-next-election/news-story/b9f5937dd4184f3c6650db668cde552a">national Newspoll</a>, conducted March 18–22 from a sample of 1,223, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, four weeks ago. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).</p>
<p>Labor’s worst Newspoll this term occurred in late November, when it was tied with the Coalition at 50–50. In the next three Newspolls, conducted from December to February, Labor led by 52–48, but it has now slid to its second worst Newspoll.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 51% dissatisfied (steady) and 44% satisfied (up one), for a net approval of -7, up one point. Peter Dutton’s net approval slid one point to -15. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 48–34 (47–35 four weeks ago).</p>
<p>This graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since the beginning of this term shows there hasn’t been a recovery since the October Voice referendum. Prior to this referendum, Albanese’s ratings were about net zero, but since then his ratings have been well below zero.</p>
<p>I believe inflation and the cost of living are still negatives for Labor. Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9440-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-march-19">weekly consumer confidence</a> measure has fallen back recently, and has spent a record 59 successive weeks below 85. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">March Freshwater poll</a>, cost of living was rated important by 72%, up three since February.</p>
<h2>Labor won’t contest federal Cook byelection</h2>
<p>Nominations were declared last Friday for an April 13 federal byelection in former Liberal PM Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/cook-by-election-2024">seat of Cook</a>. Morrison won Cook by a 62.4–37.6 margin against Labor at the 2022 election. Labor won’t contest the byelection, with the Greens and an independent likely to be the Liberals’ only competition.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian election: Labor unnecessarily concedes</h2>
<p>The most likely outcome of Saturday’s Tasmanian state election is for the Liberals to win 15 of the 35 seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and independents two. The Liberals would be three short of the 18 needed for a majority. Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/tasmania-embraces-chaos-2024-election.html">Kevin Bonham has more</a> on the count.</p>
<p>These results won’t be confirmed until the Hare-Clark preference distributions take place after the deadline for receipt of postals passes on April 2.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority</a>
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<p>If the most likely outcome occurred, the JLN would have the balance of power between the Liberals and a Labor and Green bloc. If Labor or the Greens won one more seat, Labor, the Greens and the two independents could form a government without needing the JLN.</p>
<p>However, all this may be moot because <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-24/labor-concede-tasmanian-election-rebecca-white-leader/103625422">Labor has conceded</a>. It appears Labor won’t form a government that includes the Greens. Labor has been out of power in Tasmania since the 2014 state election.</p>
<p>Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark system, not a single-member system where majorities for one party are much easier to obtain. If Labor won’t cooperate with the Greens to form government, the next Tasmanian Labor government is not likely to form anytime soon.</p>
<h2>Redbridge Victorian poll: Labor down but still far ahead</h2>
<p>The Herald Sun on Monday reported that a <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/coalition-records-best-primary-vote-result-since-june-2021-poll/news-story/a8656e6e9eafd8960765483a9ffb51e8">Victorian Redbridge poll</a>, conducted March 14–20 from a sample of 1,559, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the last Victorian <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Redbridge-Vic-public-opinion-and-vote-intention-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll in December</a>. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up two), 36% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (down three) and 16% for all Others (up two). </p>
<p>The Herald Sun’s report says this is the first time the Coalition has had a primary vote lead over Labor in Victoria since June 2021. This may apply to Redbridge, but a <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-labor-party-plunges-in-a-morgan-poll-after-commonwealth-games-axed-209976">Victorian Morgan poll</a> that was conducted in July 2023 after the Commonwealth Games were axed had the Coalition ahead on primary votes, and Labor’s two party lead at 53–47.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226463/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Inflation and the cost of living continue to eat away at Labor’s polling advantage.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2203272024-03-17T19:01:55Z2024-03-17T19:01:55ZOutrage is a key performance indicator for Peter Dutton, the ‘bad cop’ of politics. But what does he value?<p>Lech Blaine and Peter Dutton are both from Queensland, where the political culture is tough and masculine and politics south of the border always good for a spot of confected outrage. </p>
<p>So Blaine, author of <a href="https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2021/09/top-blokes">Quarterly Essay 83: Top Blokes: The Larrikin Myth, Class and Power</a>, is a good choice to try to make some sense of the federal Liberal Party’s current leader. </p>
<p>Who is Peter Dutton? What drives him? Why did he choose politics? What does power mean to him? And what does he hope to achieve if he wins government? </p>
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<p><em>Bad Cop: Peter Dutton’s Strongman Politics: Quarterly Essay – Lech Blaine (Black Inc.)</em></p>
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<p><a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/bad-cop">Bad Cop</a>, Blaine’s second Quarterly Essay, mixes straightforward narration of events in Dutton’s life with perceptive interpretation and one-liners like: “Politics would enable Dutton to be the bad cop without fear of physical injury.” </p>
<p>Dutton’s first job was as a policeman, which exposed him to the worst of human behaviour. He took from this experience a suspicion of the legal system’s presumption of innocence and its strict rules of evidence, disdain for those who try to understand human criminality and transgression, and no compassion at all for the criminal and depraved. </p>
<p>When <a href="https://iview.abc.net.au/show/kitchen-cabinet/series/7/video/FA2211H002S00">on Kitchen Cabinet</a>, Annabel Crabb put to him his wife Kirrilly’s description of him as black and white, without shades of grey, he agreed. </p>
<p>But, as Blaine shows, we know much more about the black in Dutton’s world than the white: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/03/peter-dutton-says-victorians-scared-to-go-out-because-of-african-gang-violence">African gangs</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/fake-refugees-dutton-adopts-an-alternative-fact-to-justify-our-latest-human-rights-violation-78175">illegal immigrants</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/feb/25/kristina-keneally-calls-for-bettina-arndt-to-be-stripped-of-australia-day-honour-politics-live">Islamic terrorists</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/22/peter-dutton-lebanese-muslim-comments-dismay-security-services-labor">Lebanese criminals</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-peter-dutton-most-deported-kiwis-arent-paedophiles-and-youre-hurting-our-relationship-with-nz-120655">paedophiles</a>, <a href="https://nit.com.au/19-10-2023/8231/this-is-not-what-first-nations-people-want-coalition-of-groups-attack-peter-duttons-call-for-a-royal-commission">Indigenous sexual abusers</a>, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/one-in-five-a-dole-cheat-minister-20050305-gdzq37.html">welfare cheats</a>. </p>
<p>It is a richly peopled world, compared with the bland suburbia and regional Australia he wants to protect, with much more energy expended on blaming and punishing than on praising. Compared with John Howard, with whom he shares aspects of political style, we know little about Dutton’s heroes and what he values about Australia. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">We know little about what Peter Dutton values about Australia.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>In his interests to stoke fear</h2>
<p>Dutton is a boundary rider. As a politician whose main offering is the promise of safety, it is in his interests to stoke fear. </p>
<p>He thrives on conflict and when he is not fighting the criminals and depraved, he is fighting those who are not as alert as he is to danger: human rights advocates, inner-city elites, bleeding hearts, the welfare lobby, the Greens, and of course his arch enemy in our two-party Westminster system, the Labor Party. </p>
<p>Mostly, it seems what he wants is a reaction. For Dutton, says Blaine, outrage from Labor, the Greens and on Twitter is a key performance indicator. Hence his political strategy of abandoning the inner city to Labor, the Greens and the Teals – and winning government from the outer suburbs and the regions. </p>
<p>The big question facing Dutton’s political future and his electoral strategy is whether Australia is quite as fearful and homogeneous as he imagines, or whether, as Blaine argues, he is forever riding a time machine to 2001.</p>
<p>Dutton resigned from the police after he crashed his car during a chase. He shifted into property developing with his father, and then into politics. In 2001, John Howard’s Tampa election, Dutton won the seat of Dickson, which he still holds. </p>
<p>It was, says Blaine, a fateful moment for an ex-policeman with authoritarian tendencies to embark on a political career. But compared with Howard, we have little sense of what else, besides safety and not being Labor, Dutton is offering. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-liberals-lost-the-moral-middle-class-and-now-the-teal-independents-may-well-cash-in-182293">How the Liberals lost the 'moral middle class' - and now the teal independents may well cash in</a>
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<h2>Style over substance</h2>
<p>Howard had enduring policy interests – in economic policy and industrial relations. Does Dutton have any policy interests, besides law and order? He was not even especially competent in his <a href="https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-becomes-national-security-ministerial-tsar-in-portfolio-shake-up-81186">supersized ministry of Home Affairs</a>, where his obsession with keeping out asylum seekers at any cost distracted him from the border incursions of organised crime and the systemic rorting of the immigration system, together with problems with the award of contracts. </p>
<p>As Minister for Home Affairs, concludes Blaine, “His bad cop act was a triumph of style over substance.” His championing of nuclear power to reduce Australia’s emissions, despite all the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/nuclear-power-stations-are-not-appropriate-for-australia-and-probably-never-will-be/">expert evidence</a> it is much more expensive than renewables and will take too long, shows that opposing Labor rather than solving problems is his primary motivation.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/dutton-wants-a-mature-debate-about-nuclear-power-by-the-time-weve-had-one-new-plants-will-be-too-late-to-replace-coal-224513">Dutton wants a 'mature debate' about nuclear power. By the time we've had one, new plants will be too late to replace coal</a>
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<span class="caption">Lech Blaine gives ‘a compelling account of Dutton the strong man’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Black Inc.</span></span>
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<p>Blaine gives a compelling account of Dutton the strong man, but he also claims that if you watch him for a long time, you see a man who is small and scared. The <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo27832683.html">pioneering political psychologist Harold Lasswell says</a> politicians like Dutton, preoccupied with the management of aggression and with provoking reaction, are driven by low self-esteem and a compulsive need for deference. </p>
<p>This fits Blaine’s observation, but I needed more on this side of the man. What is he scared of and why? Of being ignored and irrelevant? Of inner demons that need to be kept under lock and key? Of a world that is changing? All of the above? </p>
<p>Writing about the moving target of a politician seeking power is a tough gig. Some learn as they go, some don’t. It’s too early yet to tell is Dutton is a learner or not – but Blaine has told us what to watch out for.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220327/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Judith Brett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In his second Quarterly Essay, Lech Blaine tries to make sense of former Queensland policeman Peter Dutton. Who is he? What drives him? And what does he hope to achieve if he wins government?Judith Brett, Emeritus Professor of Politics, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257942024-03-14T09:15:23Z2024-03-14T09:15:23ZGrattan on Friday: Like Peter Dutton, John Gorton once had a nuclear plan. It didn’t end well<p>If history had taken a different turn, Australia might now not be debating nuclear power but have had it up and running for decades. </p>
<p>John Gorton, who was prime minister from 1968 to 1971, was a true believer in nuclear. His biographer Ian Hancock wrote that Gorton “visualised the generation of cheap electricity, and fuel for transport of all kinds”. </p>
<p>Gorton declared in his policy speech for the 1969 election: </p>
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<p>We shall, during the next parliament, take Australia into the atomic age by beginning the construction of an atomic plant at Jervis Bay [on the NSW south coast], to generate electricity. We believe that Australia will make increasing use of atomic power in the years ahead and that the time for this nation to enter the atomic age has now arrived. </p>
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<p>Plans were well underway when in 1971 Gorton lost the prime ministership to Billy McMahon, a critic of the Jervis Bay project, which was put into limbo. Treasury did an evaluation that – you’ve guessed it – slammed the cost; a journalist at the time described it as “a most devastating critique”. The way was opened for coal, which was much more economically viable for Australia’s power generation. The Jervis Bay project was dead.</p>
<p>Peter Dutton is a very different brand of Liberal from the freewheeling, often undisciplined Gorton, but he has become as convinced as his predecessor about the nuclear path. And, just as in Gorton’s time, the critics cite cost. Only now the cost issue is about renewables versus nuclear. </p>
<p>Dutton, under pressure to release policy, says the opposition will put out its nuclear energy blueprint before the budget. </p>
<p>It seems an odd choice as the year’s first big policy hit – nuclear power isn’t dominating kitchen table discussions around the country. Leaving that aside, the release will be a major test for Dutton, in handling both the economics and the politics of the ensuing debate. </p>
<p>He starts with most energy experts ranged against him. He’s obviously not himself an expert, so being convincing when he has to get into the fine detail won’t be easy. Public attitudes towards nuclear may have softened, but if he flounders in defending the economic case, he’ll have lost the argument even before the politics kick in. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/dutton-wants-a-mature-debate-about-nuclear-power-by-the-time-weve-had-one-new-plants-will-be-too-late-to-replace-coal-224513">Dutton wants a 'mature debate' about nuclear power. By the time we've had one, new plants will be too late to replace coal</a>
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<p>One aspect of the evolution of the opposition’s nuclear policy that raises an eyebrow is how it has so quickly transitioned from concentrating on small modular reactors – which spokesman Ted O'Brien spruiked enthusiastically but most experts dismissed as impractical – to being centred on conventional reactors. It might have been a sensible move, but it makes you wonder whether the policy crafters were on top of the complexities to start with. </p>
<p>The political battle over nuclear will be on several fronts: the overall scare campaign, the regional reaction, and attitudes in the cities.</p>
<p>The opposition hopes its plan to place the reactors (about half a dozen) only on or near the sites of coal-fired power stations as they phase out will limit the effectiveness of Labor’s scare assault. It will then become a matter of persuading the affected local communities, and Dutton has flagged incentives. </p>
<p>More generally, the opposition aims to persuade regional voters that nuclear is better than having their areas covered with power lines and wind farms that many find ugly and intrusive. This would probably resonate in many areas, provided Dutton could allay other doubts with these voters, such as about cost. </p>
<p>The cities will be another matter. In teal and similar seats, a strong commitment to renewables is likely to make voters unsympathetic to the nuclear case. The opposition may not have great hopes of winning back the teal electorates, but it will be aware of the risk of losing more seats to teal candidates and so it has to be careful. </p>
<p>In outer suburbia, Dutton’s target territory, the danger for him is that voters see nuclear power as a side issue. Yes, they will hear his claim it would mean lower power prices but, even if they buy that very contested argument, they’ll know that would be far into the future. </p>
<p>Hard-pressed families are interested in the here and now. And that goes to a broader problem for Dutton’s nuclear campaign. It could lead up a dry gully, a debate that consumes time and effort better spent on more central cost-of-living and other issues. </p>
<p>Dutton says the opposition won’t be a small target at the election. Even if that’s sound thinking, he needs to have reasonable confidence that “big target” policies will carry a more than fifty-fifty chance of paying significant dividends. He doesn’t have much political capital to spend. The likely dividend from the nuclear policy could easily be a net negative. </p>
<p>Dutton might be a nuclear believer but his stand also has to be understood in a Coalition context. His most important priority since the election has been keeping unity in the opposition’s ranks. He has managed this but it is always potentially precarious. </p>
<p>The Nationals have been bugbears for Liberal leaders on energy policy. Currently the party is divided between those who support the 2050 net zero emissions target (including leader David Littleproud) and the radical outliers who’d like to ditch the commitment to the target, which the party only signed up to under duress in the runup to the last election. The radicals would also like to ditch Littleproud if they got a chance; there are conflicting assessments about how stable his leadership is. </p>
<p>For multiple and obvious reasons, Dutton can’t afford to see the Nationals fragment over the 2050 target, or have his conservative Liberals arc up about it. The nuclear policy is the glue keeping various bits of the Coalition stuck to the target. Dutton argues the opposition believes in renewables but they won’t alone get Australia to the target. “Labor sees nuclear power as a competitor to renewables,” he said this week. “We see nuclear power as a companion to renewables.” It’s an energy policy that gives something to various otherwise irreconcilable groups within the Coalition.</p>
<p>The nuclear pitch will come under scrutiny when in May the CSIRO releases its GenCost report, titled Annual insights into the cost of future electricity generation in Australia. The result of its examination of nuclear could be a serious blow for Dutton. If so, seen in historical terms, that would be a win for McMahon economics over Gortonian aspiration. </p>
<h2>Friday Update: CSIRO head rejects Dutton criticism</h2>
<p>The Chief Executive of the CSIRO, Doug Hilton, has hit back at Peter Dutton’s criticism of an earlier GenCost report, which the opposition leader had dismissed as “discredited”. </p>
<p>In a Friday open letter, and without naming Dutton, Hilton said he would “staunchly defend our scientists and our organisation against unfounded criticism”.</p>
<p>He said for science to be useful required community trust and that needed “our political leaders to resist the temptation to disparage science”. </p>
<p>“The GenCost report is updated each year and provides the very best estimates for the cost of future new-build electricity generation in Australia. The report is carefully produced, its methodology is clearly articulated, our scientists are open and responsive to feedback, and as is the case for all creditable science, the report is updated regularly as new data comes to hand. the letter said.</p>
<p>"The GenCost report can be trusted by all our elected representatives, irrespective of whether they are advocating for electricity generation by renewables, coal, gas or nuclear energy.</p>
<p>"No matter the challenge we are tackling, CSIRO’s scientists and engineers can be relied on by the community to work creatively, assiduously and with integrity,” the letter said.</p>
<p>Replying on Friday, Dutton rejected the suggestion he had been disparaging. “My point is that we need to compare apples with apples.” The report that had been released had failed to take into consideration all the costs around renewables, he said.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225794/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Like former Liberal prime minister John Gorton, Peter Dutton has become as convinced as his predecessor about the nuclear path. But can Dutton succeed where Gorton failed?Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250822024-03-05T09:06:00Z2024-03-05T09:06:00ZView from The Hill: Peter Dutton talks up nuclear replacements for coal-fired generators<p>Sometimes it’s hard to decide whether Peter Dutton is a gambler at heart or ultra cautious. </p>
<p>On the policy front, the Opposition Leader is overseeing the development of a radical plan for Australia to use nuclear power in its energy transition. But in reshuffling his frontbench team on Tuesday, Dutton took a very careful path. </p>
<p>In its substance the nuclear policy, expected to be released before the budget, is based on a premise that this route is needed if Australia is to reach net zero emissions by 2050. </p>
<p>The latest polling shows Australians’ attitudes to nuclear power are becoming more favourable. </p>
<p>A Newspoll published last week found 55% approved when asked their attitude to building “several small modular nuclear reactors […] to produce zero-emissions energy on the sites of existing coal-fired power stations once they are retired.” Among those aged 18-34, approval was 65%.</p>
<p>In the Essential poll, in 2019 support for Australia developing nuclear power plants was 39%; last October it was 50%.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, given most experts insist nuclear wouldn’t be cost effective in any realistic timeframe, and scare campaigns are easy to run, why would Dutton go out on this shaky limb? </p>
<p>One theory is he’s seeking to bridge the gulf between, on the one hand, the resistance by Nationals (or many among them) to transmission lines and wind farms and, on the other hand, the moderate Liberals, who are totally committed to the 2050 target. </p>
<p>Pragmatically, looking at the politics, there is a lot of opposition in regional areas to the transmission network. How harvesting that discontent would weigh against the uncertainty, even alarmism that could be whipped up is another matter.</p>
<p>Despite the movement in public opinion, Labor can be expected to hold firm to its complete dismissal of the nuclear option. Apart from anything else, this is a red line for the Labor rank and file. </p>
<p>Dutton said on Tuesday the nuclear proposal was “a way of transitioning out of coal and into zero emissions technology.</p>
<p>"We’ve said that we’re interested in looking at sites where you’ve got an end-of-life coal fired generation asset. So that means that you can use the existing distribution network.” </p>
<p>While Dutton isn’t shying away from a big fight on nuclear, when it comes to his team, he has studiously avoided any boat-rocking. </p>
<p>He had two vacancies: shadow assistant treasurer, left by Stuart Robert, and shadow cabinet secretary, previously held by Marise Payne, who also quit parliament. </p>
<p>Luke Howarth, who like Robert is a Queenslander, has been promoted to shadow assistant treasurer. Previously he had defence industry and defence personnel. </p>
<p>Senator James Paterson, from Victoria, becomes shadow cabinet secretary, in addition to his existing responsibility as home affairs spokesman. Dutton described this as “a critical role” in the Coalition’s shaping of its policy agenda.</p>
<p>With an eye to the cost of living and his strategy of targeting outer suburbia, Dutton has brought the MP for the marginal Sydney seat of Lindsay, Melissa McIntosh, previously an assistant shadow minister, into the shadow ministry. She’ll be shadow minister for energy affordability and for Western Sydney. The elevation should help in a preselection battle she faces.</p>
<p>“Western Sydney is an economic powerhouse, but it’s a region that the Albanese government has ignored,” <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2024/03/05/changes-coalition-shadow-ministry">Dutton said, announcing his reshuffle</a>.</p>
<p>With the opposition preparing its housing policy, Andrew Bragg moves from the backbench to shadow assistant minister for home ownership, the issue du jour. </p>
<p>Among other limited changes, South Australian backbencher James Stevens’ appointment as shadow assistant minister for government waste reduction signals the Coalition is on the hunt for cuts. The public service will be alert and alarmed. Senator Paul Scarr becomes shadow assistant minister for multicultural engagement, increasing the opposition’s attention on this area at a challenging time for community harmony.. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Liberals are saddling up for another byelection, with a Monday preselection ballot choosing Simon Kennedy, a former McKinsey consultant, as the candidate for Cook, vacated by Scott Morrison. </p>
<p>Cook is a safe Liberal seat and Labor is highly unlikely to contest it. </p>
<p>Kennedy ran unsuccessfully in Bennelong at the election. The criticism of his endorsement for Cook was immediate and predictable: the Liberals need more women in the parliament, and here they’ve chosen a man. Kennedy, who had an overwhelming vote, beat two other men and a woman. </p>
<p>While Liberals had to defend their position in the gender wars, Anthony Albanese, celebrating Jodie Belyea’s win in the Dunkley byelection, is able to crow that his caucus has a majority of females.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225082/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Peter Dutton’s minor cabinet reshuffle, paired with the announcement of his nuclear energy policy, makes it hard to decide whether Peter Dutton is a gambler at heart or ultra-cautious.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249362024-03-03T07:59:25Z2024-03-03T07:59:25ZView from The Hill: Does Dunkley tell Peter Dutton he should give more attention to the former Liberal heartland?<p>Depending how you want to read it, you can say not a great deal happened in Saturday’s Dunkley byelection, or you find there are messages in it for everyone. </p>
<p>On the first view, Labor’s comfortable win suggests people are feeling the cost-of-living pinch but they’re not blaming the Albanese government. </p>
<p>The Liberals are making the most of a modest swing (3.56% in two-party preferred terms on the latest figures), but it’s par for the course for a byelection. You can’t necessarily say much about other seats from what happened in this one, let alone for a general election more than a year away. </p>
<p>But the parties, naturally and sensibly, will take the view the Dunkley entrails send signals. </p>
<p>We heard this on Saturday when Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said “there are many messages in the result tonight and I want to assure every Australian that we will examine this closely and understand every message that is there”.</p>
<p>We’ll see the outcome of this examination initially in the budget. Anthony Albanese’s reworking of the Stage 3 tax cuts helped in Dunkley and more cost-of-living assistance will be rolled out. </p>
<p>Education Minister Jason Clare, who’s just released his universities accord report, should be in a good position to win something on the Higher Education Loan Program (HELP) and/or assistance for teaching and nursing students during their placements. Labor will want to keep its firm grip on younger voters. </p>
<p>What message will the Greens take from the dive in their vote? Perhaps they won’t worry overmuch. Reportedly they were light on the ground at the booths on Saturday. Dunkley is not where they’re trying to be competitive. Their eyes are on inner urban areas. </p>
<p>Most significantly, what lessons will the Liberals garner from Dunkley? Will Peter Dutton adjust his strategy, tactics and team? </p>
<p>In an <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dunkley-shows-libs-can-t-advance-through-labor-heartland-20240226-p5f7rc">article on Sunday in the Australian Financial Review</a>, two former MPs, Tim Wilson and Jason Falinski, questioned the hope that the Liberals’ road back to power is via concentrating on the outer suburbs. </p>
<p>They write, “like in Aston nearly twelve months ago, the outer suburbs aren’t sending Liberal MPs to Canberra. An area can’t be the new heartland if your primary vote has a three in front of it.” </p>
<p>Wilson and Falinski are coming from a distinct corner. They lost to teals, in Goldstein in Victoria and Mackellar in NSW respectively; Wilson is seeking preselection for another run and there is speculation Falinski will too. So there is some self-interest at play. Nevertheless their argument will resonate with some Liberals who think Dutton has written off these seats (which he’d strongly deny). </p>
<p>“Dunkley was a critical test for those in circles who theorise that the Liberal heartland has shifted from affluent communities to working class ones,” Wilson and Falinski write. They challenge this theory on the basis of the pattern of swings in Dunkley, and find: “What stands out is the return of the Liberal Party’s traditional stomping ground [such as Mount Eliza North] that has been at risk of going teal”. </p>
<p>Dunkley showed well-off households are “voting defensive once more” in the face of being hit by Labor, Wilson and Falinski say. </p>
<p>“Liberals need to win seats like Dunkley to form government. But it is not their heartland; communities like Curtin, Higgins, Mackellar, Warringah, North Sydney and Wentworth are.”</p>
<p>Their conclusion is the need for the Liberals to have a convincing economic plan (although threading the needle between the outer suburban and former “heartland” constituencies could be much more complicated). </p>
<p>Such a plan, it might be said, requires content and salesmanship. The Liberals are presently lacking in both. </p>
<p>Expectations are now being raised about Peter Dutton’s budget reply – will it contain some serious and major policy? </p>
<p>Whether policy comes then, or around then, the opposition surely cannot delay much longer telling people what it would do in some key areas. Anthony Albanese’s small target approach worked when the Coalition and especially its PM were seriously on the nose. But it’s quite likely the public will still be relatively patient towards the Albanese government next year. </p>
<p>Dutton intends soon to announce a reshuffle of his frontbench, filling the vacancies of shadow assistant treasurer and shadow cabinet secretary (left by the departures of Stuart Robert and Marise Payne), and making some other minor changes. </p>
<p>The reshuffle is long overdue. But it will not address core problems Dutton has with his weak frontbench. His shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor is not up to the job when that job is to match and better Treasurer Jim Chalmers. And Dutton’s deputy, Sussan Ley, has become shrill and displays poor judgement, as shown by her inflammatory social media post last week saying, “If you do not want to see Australian women being assaulted by foreign criminals, vote against Labor”.</p>
<p>But both Taylor and Ley are effectively locked into their positions, and Dutton is the loser.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224936/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Labor held on to Dunkley despite sustaining a small swing, both parties will search for messages about what the result means and what they should do before the next federal election.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2238532024-02-25T22:19:07Z2024-02-25T22:19:07ZLabor steady in Newspoll but down in Resolve; it’s tied in Queensland<p>A federal <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/second-newspoll-in-a-row-shows-no-net-gain-for-labor-after-its-tax-reset/news-story/67814b9a43e96d1151f062fe5a79ce82">Newspoll</a>, conducted February 19–23 <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/most-australians-would-back-a-move-to-small-scale-nuclear-power/news-story/88589682d1d46b8257c0386f61d51aa6">from a sample</a> of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one) and 13% for all Others (up two). </p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 51% dissatisfied (steady) and 43% satisfied (up one), for a net approval of -8, up one point. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down one point to -14. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 47–35 (46–35 previously).</p>
<p>This graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll shows there has not been a recovery since the defeat of the Voice referendum.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/dec-2023">reported last Wednesday</a> that the wage price index rose 4.2% in the full year 2023 and 0.9% in the December quarter. This is the highest annual rise since 2009, though the quarterly rise was down from 1.3% in September.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">annual inflation rate</a> for the full year 2023 was 4.1%, so wage rises just beat inflation. For the December quarter, inflation was up 0.6%, so wage rises exceeded inflation by 0.3%. I expect this will be good news for the government.</p>
<h2>Labor down in Resolve poll, but would still lead</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-takes-primary-vote-lead-from-labor-for-first-time-since-election-20240225-p5f7lm.html?btis=">federal Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted February 21–24 from a sample of 1,603, gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (up three since early December), Labor 34% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one), One Nation 6% (up one), the UAP 1% (steady), independents 9% (steady) and others 4% (up one).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two party estimate until near elections, but applying 2022 preference flows to this poll gives Labor about a 52.5–47.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since December. This is easily Labor’s worst position this term in a Resolve poll, which has been very pro-Labor relative to other polls.</p>
<p>Despite Labor’s drop, Albanese’s net approval improved six points to -6, with 47% giving him a poor rating and 41% a good rating. Dutton was <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">down three points</a> to a -11 net approval. Albanese led Dutton by 39–32 as preferred PM, a narrowing from 42–28 in December. Voters supported the changes to the stage three tax cuts by a 52–14 margin.</p>
<p>The Liberals increased their lead over Labor on economic management from 35–27 in December to 38–27. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 30–26 (26–21 in December).</p>
<h2>Labor gains in Freshwater poll for a 51–49 lead</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-unscathed-but-unrewarded-for-tax-u-turn-20240218-p5f5t9">Freshwater poll</a> for The Financial Review, conducted February 16–18 from a sample of 1,049, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since a <a href="https://theconversation.com/freshwater-national-poll-holds-steady-at-a-50-50-tie-between-labor-and-the-coalition-as-trump-set-for-big-win-in-iowa-caucus-220286">mid-January Freshwater poll</a> for The Daily Telegraph. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one since January), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (steady) and 17% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>Freshwater has been Labor’s worst pollster this term, while Resolve has been its best. Results from Freshwater, Newspoll and Resolve are now closer together than previously.</p>
<p>Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 42–38 (47–38 in January). In comparisons with the December poll, Albanese’s net approval was down two points to -7, while Dutton’s was down seven to -9. Barnaby <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-s-approval-rating-among-voters-sinks-like-a-stone-20240218-p5f5tp">Joyce’s net approval</a> crashed 16 points to -33.</p>
<p>By 44–15, voters supported the changes to the stage three tax cuts, with 26% “indifferent”. By 32–12, voters thought they would be better off under the changes, with 43% saying there would be no difference.</p>
<p>The cost of living is still the top issue for voters, with 69% listing it as a priority. The Coalition led Labor as best party to manage cost of living by 34–28. Since December, “crime and social order” jumped eight points to 25% to rank fifth on the <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/voters-warn-labor-on-crime-and-social-order-20240218-p5f5ta">list of voters’ priorities</a>.</p>
<p>Net approval of the federal political parties was +1 for the Liberals, -4 for Labor, -7 for the Nationals and -19 for the Greens. Net approval of other prominent Labor ministers was +6 for Penny Wong, -3 for Jim Chalmers, -4 for Tanya Plibersek and -10 for Chris Bowen.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 52.5–47.5 to Labor</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9457-federal-voting-intention-february-19-2024">Morgan poll</a>, conducted February 12–18 from a sample of 1,706, Labor led by 52.5–47.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (down 0.5), 13% Greens (up one), 4% One Nation (down 0.5) and 12% for all Others (steady).</p>
<h2>Queensland UComms poll has a 50–50 tie</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. A <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/polling-shock-battlelines-drawn-as-explosive-new-poll-delivers-boilover-no-one-saw-coming/news-story/d88e3a62df3e949731e1d7e436f294ef">UComms poll</a> for The Courier Mail, conducted February 13 from a sample of 1,743, had Labor and the Liberal National Party tied at 50–50, a one-point gain for Labor since December. This is the first Queensland poll commissioned by The Courier Mail that has not shown a LNP lead since December 2022.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/23/ucomms-50-50-in-queensland/">Poll Bludger</a> reported the primary votes were 37.3% LNP (down 0.7), 34.2% Labor (down 0.2), 12.2% Greens (down 1.1), 7.7% One Nation (up 0.4) and 3.9% Katter’s Australian Party (down 0.1). Respondent preferences were better for Labor than in December.</p>
<p>Labor premier Steven Miles’ ratings were 44.2% positive (up 1.5), 25.2% neutral (down 2.4) and 25.2% negative (down 2.4). LNP leader David Crisafulli’s ratings were 41.7% positive (up 3.9), 31.2% neutral (up 1.0) and 18.7% negative (down 4.1). Crisafulli led Miles as preferred premier by 51–49 (52.2–47.8 in December).</p>
<p>This is the second UComms poll since Miles replaced Annastacia Palaszczuk as Labor premier in December. Some of Labor’s poll problems were probably due to Palaszczuk’s unpopularity. But Labor will have been in government for almost ten years by the October election, so there may be an “it’s time” factor.</p>
<h2>Trump wins South Carolina, UK byelections and Indonesian election</h2>
<p>Donald Trump won the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday (US time), defeating Nikki Haley in her home state by a 59.8–39.5 margin. He is almost certain to seal the Republican presidential nomination by March 19, when 69% of Republican delegates will have been determined. I covered this for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/25/us-south-carolina-republican-primary-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>I covered the two February 15 UK byelections in Conservative-held seats for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/16/uk-by-elections-live-wellingborough-and-kingswood/">The Poll Bludger</a>. Both seats were gained by Labour on massive swings. The next UK general election is likely to be held late this year, with Labour far ahead in national polls. However, Labour was forced to disendorse their candidate for the February 29 Labour-held Rochdale byelection after nominations had closed.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/14/us-new-yorks-third-by-election-and-indonesian-election-live/">covered the February 14 Indonesian election</a>, in which the right-wing Prabowa Subianto won the presidency with an outright majority of the vote, meaning there won’t be a runoff election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223853/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ahead of the Dunkley byelection on March 2, Labor takes a hit in key polls, but Anthony Albanese’s personal approval is still ahead of Peter Dutton’s.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239612024-02-20T05:41:16Z2024-02-20T05:41:16ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Antony Green, Kos Samaras and Tim Costello on Dunkley contest<p>The March 2 byelection in the outer suburban Melbourne seat of Dunkley is the third byelection this term but the first in a Labor-held electorate. It has been caused by the death late last year of Peta Murphy, after a long battle with cancer. </p>
<p>Labor’s margin sits at 6.3% in Dunkley, an electorate that has swung between the major parties. </p>
<p>Labor goes into the byelection as the favourite, as it seeks to sell its changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts. Most voters will be better off under the new package than they would have under the original version, although there will be some losers. </p>
<p>Labor’s candidate is Jodie Belyea, from Frankston, who has extensive experience working in the not-for-profit sector. The Liberals are fielding the Mayor of Frankston, Nathan Conroy. </p>
<p>To talk about the byelection, we are joined by the ABC’s election analyst Antony Green, Kos Samaras from the RedBridge Group, which has conducted research in Dunkley, and Tim Costello, former CEO of World Vision Australia and a Dunkley resident.</p>
<p>There are several measures of swing that can be used for byelections, and participants often adopt whichever suits them. Green says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The best measure in the end is the average swing of about three and a half to four percent [against a government]. That’s the swing since Federation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>How is the government’s recently-announced reworked tax package going down in Dunkley? Drawing on the focus group RedBridge ran this week, Samaras says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>When it comes to the tax cuts announcement made by the Albanese government [it’s] welcomed but [has] not much of an impact in terms of alleviating some of these some of these […] financial problems. […] Their problem is in the hundreds of dollars every week not in the tens.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>On voter engagement in Dunkley Samaras finds little interest: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think the overwhelming sense is that they’re sick of getting mail in the letterbox and their YouTube feed being riddled with advertisements, and it’s annoying them. It’s perhaps a message to the political class out there.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As a resident observer, Costello says Belyea is </p>
<blockquote>
<p>doing very well, particularly with women. There’s a lot of women in the area who’ve known her work. […] But it’s a big step up to federal politics when you haven’t been involved.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Conroy is </p>
<blockquote>
<p>a very good campaigner. He is very slick and everywhere. And that ‘send Labor a message’ I think is cutting through.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223961/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The March 2 byelection in the outer suburban Melbourne seat of Dunkley is a challenge for the government. Labor goes in as the favourite but at a time of high cost of living will it's 6.3 margin be enough?Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236392024-02-15T09:30:27Z2024-02-15T09:30:27ZGrattan on Friday: Morrison’s departure will help Liberals ‘move on’ but Nationals can’t ‘move on’ until Barnaby does<p>Scott Morrison will say his farewell to parliament the week after next. This timing happens to follow neatly Monday’s final episode in the ABC’s Nemesis series, in which some Coalition figures excoriated their former leader and Morrison defended his record. </p>
<p>For the Liberals, Morrison’s departure is a significant symbolic “moving on” moment. It’s not that he has had any influence, or been disruptive, since the election. But even though he’s been hardly noticed publicly, his presence in the parliamentary party has been a reminder of all that went wrong last term. </p>
<p>The Coalition Morrison is exiting is a mixed bunch, in terms of performance, illustrated by the first weeks of this year. </p>
<p>The opposition could not have avoided being outfoxed by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s bold reworking of the tax cuts. But it could have prevented the Liberals’ deputy leader, Sussan Ley, impulsively suggesting a Dutton government would roll back the tax cuts, which a nanosecond of thought would have told her would never happen. It was typical of Ley, and a bone Labor hasn’t stopped chewing.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the row over the ex-detainees – released by the government from immigration detention after a High Court decision last year – has shown how an opposition working effectively can have a minister squirming. </p>
<p>The Liberals used material from this week’s Senate estimates hearing to pound Immigration Minister Andrew Giles in the House of Representatives. Although the issue probably doesn’t have its pre-Christmas resonance with the public, the operation reminded that Liberal Senator James Paterson is one of the opposition’s best-performing frontbenchers. Paterson is on top of a broad national security brief and (regardless of whether you agree with him or not) conveys his points effectively in media interviews. </p>
<p>In contrast, the shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, still struggles to cut through. Despite performing better than last year, Taylor is unable to land a blow on Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Given the centrality of the economic debate, this is a serious problem for Peter Dutton. </p>
<p>Taylor is lucky there’s no colleague stalking for his job. Those with long memories will recall Julie Bishop’s fate as shadow treasurer under Malcolm Turnbull. When she floundered, Joe Hockey was there coveting her post and inevitably she had to agree to move. </p>
<p>Finance spokeswoman Jane Hume is diligent, prominent in the media and improving. She does best when she limits the gratuitous political attacks. </p>
<p>Michael Sukkar, shadow minister for housing, seems largely missing in action on the red-hot issue of housing, a crucial battleground for the election. The opposition shouldn’t just be more active in the day-to-day debate – it should be releasing an alternative policy sooner rather than later. A comprehensive housing policy should logically be at the core of an agenda for the “aspirationals” the Liberals like to talk about.</p>
<p>We don’t hear as much as we should on education from spokeswoman Sarah Henderson. While education is often considered a “Labor” issue, poor results and declining retention rates at school level and key issues facing higher education are meaty areas for debate. </p>
<p>Andrew Hastie is well qualified on defence but not as much to the fore as might be expected. Prominent in the conservative wing of the Liberal Party, Hastie also needs to broaden his profile for the future. </p>
<p>Anne Ruston could make more of her health and aged care remit. There are many questions around the post-pandemic management of COVID, and the long-term sustainability of Medicare. Ruston will soon have a ready-made issue in aged care, when the government finally releases the report it is sitting on, canvassing ways forward for the sector’s financing. The Howard, Hawke and Morrison governments all found aged care perilous. </p>
<p>Among the Nationals, their Senate leader, Bridget McKenzie, has proved very effective this term, notably on Qantas and Qatar Airways. </p>
<p>Jacinta Price was a highly successful “no” campaigner in the referendum, but the harder test will be whether she can find some credible positive answers for improving Indigenous people’s conditions. Her proposed audit of spending might have some merit, but it falls short as a policy.</p>
<p>Dutton needs to reshuffle his frontbench ASAP. He hasn’t even filled the vacancy left by last year’s resignation from parliament of the Robodebt-tainted Stuart Robert, who was shadow assistant treasurer. Marise Payne’s departure left vacant the spot of shadow cabinet secretary.</p>
<p>The frontbench certainly would benefit from some new talent. Constraints such as state representations complicate things, but if merit were the criterion, Zoe McKenzie and Keith Wolahan, both Victorians, are deserving. </p>
<p>Julian Leeser, who stepped down to the backbench to campaign for “yes” in the referendum, now appears to have less chance of a return in a reshuffle than was initially thought. That’s unfortunate, because restoring him as shadow attorney-general would be sensible. Having Michaelia Cash in that job as well as workplace relations is overload on steroids. </p>
<p>In the longer term, the Coalition needs a refresh of talent at the 2025 election. Former minister Linda Reynolds (now on the backbench) announced this week she was not recontesting. Neither is junior frontbencher Nola Marino. </p>
<p>One-time Morrison henchman Alex Hawke (who has preselection) would be among those who don’t have much to contribute in another term. Dutton didn’t put Hawke on his frontbench.</p>
<p>Which brings us to Barnaby Joyce, whose future is a talking point after he was videoed sprawled on a Canberra street following too many drinks that he said interfered with his medication. </p>
<p>Both Dutton and the Nationals’ leader, David Littleproud, have advised Joyce he should take personal leave, Littleproud citing he had “family circumstances”, beyond the first explanation for his behaviour. Despite the advice, Joyce remained in parliament for the rest of this week. The pertinent question, however, is whether Joyce should run for another term. </p>
<p>Once hailed as a great “retail” politician, Joyce at the 2022 election was considered a retail negative in many Liberal seats. Dutton’s priority mightn’t be the recapture of “teal” seats – he’s concentrating on outer suburbia – but he doesn’t want a repeat of the perceived damage Joyce did last time. </p>
<p>Joyce may want to run again, but surely he shouldn’t. While he is in parliament, the Nationals will remain a tinderbox (even though they manage to hold their seats). The party, once known for its unity and discipline, won’t move on until Joyce moves on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223639/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the Liberals, Morrison’s departure is a significant symbolic “moving on” moment. But how does the coalitions new talent stack up and what should be done with the old guard?Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222572024-02-04T20:09:51Z2024-02-04T20:09:51ZLabor’s Newspoll lead unchanged since December as 62% support stage three changes<p>A national <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-electoral-status-quo-as-voters-back-tax-cuts-but-no-reward-for-labor-on-broken-promise/news-story/73a1403b8c6b4f92dd4cf63b377e526c">Newspoll</a>, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-regains-lead-in-newspoll-after-tie-but-freshwater-has-a-50-50-tie-219404">previous Newspoll</a> in mid-December. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped one point to -9, while Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -13. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 46–35. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/04/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-open-thread-3/">Poll Bludger</a> has the Newspoll figures.</p>
<p>On the stage three tax cut modifications, 62% thought the government did the right thing by changing the tax cuts to give lower- and middle-income people a greater share, while 29% thought the government should have kept its promise and implemented the tax cuts without changes.</p>
<p>On whether voters would be personally better or worse off under the changes, 38% said they would be better off, 37% about the same and 18% worse off.</p>
<p>Here is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll. His net approval is still well below zero, and hasn’t recovered to its level before the Voice referendum defeat.</p>
<p>In economic news, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">December 2023 quarter inflation report</a> last Wednesday. Headline annual inflation was 4.1%, down from a peak of 7.8% in December 2022. The December quarter inflation was 0.6%, down from 1.2% in the September quarter, and the lowest quarterly inflation since March 2021. Lower inflation should assist Labor.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: 48–46 to Labor</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">federal Essential poll</a>, conducted January 24–28 from a sample of 1,201, Labor led by 48–46 including undecided (49–46 in December). Labor has led by one-to-three points in all Essential polls since late October. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady), 7% for all Others (down two) and 5% undecided (steady). Analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1752176539029148047">Kevin Bonham said Labor</a> would have about a 53–47 lead in this poll by 2022 election preference flows. Essential’s respondent preferences have favoured the Coalition.</p>
<p>Albanese had a 47–41 <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/30-january-2024">disapproval rating</a> (47–42 in November), while Dutton was at 43–38 disapproval (42–39 previously).</p>
<p>On the stage three tax changes, 47% (up six since November) said they should be revised so they mostly benefit those on low and middle incomes, 22% (up two) go ahead as originally planned, 19% (down three) deferred for those earning over $200,000 and 13% (down three) thought they should be cancelled altogether. I had more on <a href="https://theconversation.com/extra-senators-for-act-and-nt-will-benefit-left-but-increase-malapportionment-218708">these questions in November</a>.</p>
<p>On the Israel-Palestine conflict, 67% (up five since November) said Australia should stay out entirely, 17% (steady) said it should provide active assistance to Israel while 16% (down five) believed Australia should provide active assistance to Palestine.</p>
<p>By 47–12, respondents thought things had improved for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in the past ten years (42–10 in January 2023). On a separate national day to recognise Indigenous Australians, 40% (up seven since January 2023) did not support a separate day, 31% (down two) supported a separate day and keeping Australia Day and 18% (down eight) supported replacing Australia Day.</p>
<p>On the ABC, 39% thought news reporting and comment independent and unbiased, and 39% thought otherwise. On artificial intelligence (AI), 65% thought regulation should be mandatory. On AI opportunities and risks, 45% thought it carries more risk than opportunity, 21% more opportunity than risk and 33% that risk and opportunity are about the same.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and a second Queensland byelection</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9449-federal-voting-intention-january-29-2024">federal Morgan poll</a>, conducted January 22–28 from a sample of 1,688, Labor led by 50.5–49.5, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 31% Labor (down 1.5), 13% Greens (up 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 13% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>I covered the March 16 Queensland state byelection in Inala <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-wins-new-hampshire-primary-and-closes-in-on-republican-nomination-labor-gains-in-australian-polls-221406">last fortnight</a>. A second Queensland byelection will also occur on March 16 after <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/ipwe">Ipswich West’s</a> Labor member Jim Madden resigned to contest the Ipswich local government elections on March 16. </p>
<p>At the 2020 state election, Labor defeated the Liberal Nationals by a 64.3–35.7 margin in Ipswich West. One Nation had finished second in 2017. While normally a safe Labor seat, One Nation won Ipswich West in 1998 and the LNP in 2012.</p>
<h2>Biden wins 96% in South Carolina Democratic primary</h2>
<p>At Saturday’s United States <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/03/us/elections/results-south-carolina-democratic-primary.html">Democratic presidential primary</a> in South Carolina, Joe Biden won 96.2% of the vote, Marianne Williamson 2.1% and Dean Phillips 1.7%. This result makes it all but certain that Biden will be the Democratic presidential nominee.</p>
<p>In the Republican presidential contest, Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley nationally by 73.6–17.2 in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/?ex_cid=abcpromo">FiveThirtyEight aggregate</a>. The next important contest is the February 24 Republican primary in South Carolina, Haley’s home state. Trump leads by 61.8–31.7 in <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/">South Carolina polls</a>.</p>
<p>Trump is very likely to effectively seal the Republican nomination on Super Tuesday March 5, when many states vote. By this date, 47.4% of <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/ccad.phtml">Republican delegates</a> to their July nominating convention will have been determined.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222257/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While two-party preferred polling is steady, a majority of Australians support Labor’s changes to the stage 3 tax cuts.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2202862024-01-15T02:13:08Z2024-01-15T02:13:08ZFreshwater national poll holds steady at a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition as Trump set for big win in Iowa caucus<p>A national <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/shock-poll-we-dont-trust-albo-to-help-us-with-costs-of-living/news-story/e8b7e7b39bedcd2e4c8d14746d6c0a50">Freshwater poll</a> for The Sunday Telegraph had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-regains-lead-in-newspoll-after-tie-but-freshwater-has-a-50-50-tie-219404">Freshwater poll for The Financial Review</a> in mid-December.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/15/freshwater-strategy-50-50-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported that primary votes were 39% Coalition (steady since December), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one) and 15% for all Others (down one). This poll was conducted January 10–11 from a sample of 1,007.</p>
<p>Freshwater has had better results for the Coalition than other polls, so Labor would probably have led if there was a Newspoll.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton by 47–38 as preferred PM (43–39 in December). On Labor’s target to achieve 82% renewables by 2030, 51% said it would mean higher energy costs while 16% thought their bills would be reduced. On the cost of living, 81% said Labor had not done enough and 68% said they would not do enough in the next six months.</p>
<h2>Morgan polls, Resolve likeability and Newspoll aggregate data</h2>
<p>In my last polls article I reported that Labor led by 51–49 in the Morgan poll conducted December 4–10. In the Morgan poll <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9418-federal-voting-intention-december-17-2023">conducted December 11–17</a> there was a 50–50 tie. In <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9419-federal-voting-intention-january-8-2024">the poll conducted</a> January 2–7 from a sample of 1,716, the Coalition led by 51–49. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one since mid-December), 29% Labor (down three), 13% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 14% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>Nine newspapers released <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/wong-tops-list-of-popular-politicians-and-a-former-hero-now-comes-last-20231227-p5ett8.html">likeability ratings for various politicians</a> from the early December federal Resolve poll on December 28. The most popular politicians were Foreign Minister Penny Wong (net +14 likeability), Tasmanian independent senator Jacqui Lambie (net +10), Nationals senator Jacinta Price (net +6), ACT independent senator David Pocock (net +5) and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek (net +2).</p>
<p>The most unpopular politicians were former PM Scott Morrison (net -35), ex-Greens senator Lidia Thorpe (net -29), former deputy PM Barnaby Joyce (net -27) and Pauline Hanson (net -25).</p>
<p>Albanese had a net -3 likeability, much better than his <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">net approval</a> of -11 in the same poll, while Dutton’s net likeability was -12 (-8 net approval). Greens leader Adam Bandt was at -10 net likeability while Treasurer Jim Chalmers was at net zero.</p>
<p>Newspoll aggregate data for its three federal polls conducted from early November to mid-December was released on December 27. The overall sample was 3,655. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">previous aggregate data</a>, from Newspolls conducted before the October 14 Voice referendum, Labor led by 54–46. In this release, Labor’s overall lead was down to 52–48.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/27/newspoll-aggregates-october-to-december-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> said Labor’s lead or deficit in the various states was close to the margins at the 2022 federal election. Labor led by 51–49 in New South Wales, 55–45 in Victoria, 54–46 in Western Australia and 55–45 in South Australia. Queensland was the only state with a Coalition lead, by 54–46.</p>
<h2>Trump set for big win in Iowa Republican caucus</h2>
<p>The Iowa Republican caucus is the first <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/events.phtml?s=c&f=m">presidential nominating contest</a> of 2024, and it will occur Tuesday AEDT. In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/">FiveThirtyEight</a> aggregate of Iowa polls, Donald Trump has 51.3%, Nikki Haley 17.3% and Ron DeSantis 16.1%. The next contest is the New Hampshire primary on January 23, where Trump is <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/">being challenged</a> by Haley.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-elections-2024-a-biden-vs-trump-rematch-is-very-likely-with-trump-leading-biden-219093">US elections 2024: a Biden vs Trump rematch is very likely, with Trump leading Biden</a>
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<p>I covered the Taiwan presidential election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/13/taiwan-presidential-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday, in which the centre-left and pro-independence candidate won with 40.1% of the vote (first past the post was used). Three US and UK byelections that are to be held from February 13–15 were also covered.</p>
<h2>Queensland UComms poll: 51–49 to LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. A <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/ucomms-poll-steven-miless-ascension-makes-little-difference-to-labor-fortunes/news-story/13ff4bb2973e0ac46e941cf182f754f6">UComms poll</a> for The Courier Mail, conducted December 21–22 from a sample of 1,911, gave the Liberal National Party a 51–49 lead, from primary votes of 36.2% LNP and 34.4% Labor, with no other parties’ votes released. LNP leader David Crisafulli led new Labor premier Steven Miles by 52.2–47.8 as preferred premier.</p>
<p>An October <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">YouGov Queensland poll</a> gave the LNP a 52–48 lead, and a September to December <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">Resolve poll</a> implied a 50–50 tie, but Resolve has been much better for Labor federally than other polls.</p>
<h2>Victorian Redbridge poll: Labor has large lead</h2>
<p>A Victorian state <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Redbridge-Vic-public-opinion-and-vote-intention-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a>, conducted December 2–12 from a sample of 2,026, gave Labor a 55.9–44.1 lead, a 0.6-point gain for the Coalition since a <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Vic-votes-survey-Sept-2023.pdf">September Redbridge poll</a>. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 36% Coalition (up two), 13% Greens (steady) and 14% for all Others (down two).</p>
<p>Voters were asked their ratings of political leaders on a five-point scale, with 3 being neither approve nor disapprove. Labor Premier Jacinta Allan was at net -6, Liberal leader John Pesutto at net -13, Nationals leader Peter Walsh at net -15 and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at net -21.</p>
<p>On the main impact of protests over the Israel-Gaza war, 30% thought they had threatened the safety of Jewish and Palestinian Australians, 21% raised awareness of the conflict and 19% pressured the Australian government to call for an end.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian YouGov poll: Lambie Network has 20%</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48296-the-tasmanian-state-liberal-vote-is-down-17-since-the-last-election">Tasmanian state YouGov poll</a>, conducted December 21 to January 4 from a sample of 850, gave the Liberals 31%, Labor 27%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 20%, the Greens 15% and independents 7%. Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two party preferred is not applicable.</p>
<p>If this were the election result, the JLN would hold the balance of power. By 53–26, voters thought it was time to give someone else a go over the Liberals deserving to be re-elected. A November <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">EMRS Tasmanian poll</a> had 39% Liberals, 29% Labor, 12% Greens and 19% for all Others with no JLN option.</p>
<h2>Lawler replaces Fyles as NT chief minister</h2>
<p>Eva Lawler <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-20/eva-lawler-next-northern-territory-chief-minister/103252794">replaced Natasha Fyles</a> as Labor’s Northern Territory chief minister on December 21. Fyles had resigned two days prior owing to conflict of interest allegations, and Lawler was unanimously elected by Labor MPs. Fyles will continue as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natasha_Fyles">Member for Nightcliff</a>, so there won’t be a byelection.</p>
<p>This is the second change in NT chief minister this term after Fyles replaced Michael Gunner in May 2022. The next NT election is in August, and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">November Redbridge poll</a> had Labor well behind the opposition Country Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The summer break hasn’t changed the Freshwater polling figures for the two major parties federally. Overseas, the former US President is in a strong position ahead of the Iowa caucus.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194042023-12-18T03:53:23Z2023-12-18T03:53:23ZLabor regains lead in Newspoll after tie, but Freshwater has a 50–50 tie<p>A national <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-anthony-albanese-a-drag-on-labors-recovery/news-story/05ded91a0aaebd8e88c3a1c507ff97ea">Newspoll</a>, conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,219, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago that had a 50–50 tie. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 50% dissatisfied (down three) and 42% satisfied (up two), for a net approval of -8, up five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved four points to -9. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 46–35.</p>
<p>The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since late 2022. While his net approval in this Newspoll is a recovery, he’s still well below net zero.</p>
<p>In my coverage of the previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">Newspoll</a>, I said other polls conducted at about the same time had narrow Labor leads, with Morgan giving the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead.</p>
<p>The polling now suggests Labor’s lead is increasing slightly. This may be explained by an improvement in economic sentiment. Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9380-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-december-12">consumer confidence index</a> was up 4.4 points last week to 80.8, the highest it has been since February.</p>
<h2>Freshwater poll tied at 50–50</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-loses-lead-pm-s-ratings-slump-poll-20231217-p5es0f">Freshwater poll</a> for The Financial Review, conducted December 15–17 from a sample of 1,109, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition since September. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up two), 31% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/17/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-open-thread-2/">Poll Bludger</a> said Freshwater polls have been two or three points worse for Labor than the nearest Newspoll. This poll is better for Labor if Freshwater’s pro-Coalition lean is accounted for.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval was down two to -5, while Dutton’s was up eight to -2. Albanese led Dutton by 43–39 as preferred PM (46–37 in September). The Liberals had a net +3 approval, while Labor’s was -3 and the Greens were -16. Jacinta Price’s net approval was +7, Penny Wong’s was +5 and Barnaby Joyce’s was -17.</p>
<p>On issue salience, there was a six-point drop in cost of living to 71% and an eight-point rise in immigration to 13% (but this is only the eighth most important issue). The Coalition led Labor by five points on cost of living, up from one point in September. On immigration, the Coalition led by 13 points, up from five.</p>
<h2>YouGov poll: Greens gain at Labor’s expense</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48095-latest-yougov-poll-labors-primary-vote-is-the-lowest-since-1901">YouGov national poll</a>, conducted December 1–5 from a sample of 1,555, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous YouGov poll in mid-November. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 29% Labor (down two), 15% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/08/yougov-51-49-to-labor-open-thread-2/">Poll Bludger</a> said this is Labor’s lowest primary vote in any poll since the last election. If repeated at an election, it would be Labor’s lowest since the first federal election in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1901_Australian_federal_election">1901</a>.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval slumped nine points to -16, while Dutton’s net approval was down two to -9. Albanese led Dutton by 46–36 as preferred PM, with this ten-point margin down from 14 previously.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor’s lead increases</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted December 6–10 from a sample of 1,102, Labor led by 49–46 including undecided, out from 48–47 three weeks ago. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (down one).</p>
<p>Voters were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/12-december-2023">asked to rate</a> Albanese and Dutton from zero to ten. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 37–32 negative (35–33 in November). Dutton was at 37–28 negative (35–32 previously).</p>
<p>Big businesses and the government were thought to have too much power, while individuals, workers and small business were thought to not have enough. The most important issues voters wanted the government to address were energy prices, housing affordability and grocery prices.</p>
<p>Trust in various institutions has taken a double digit hit across the board since this question was last asked in September 2022.</p>
<p>Asked whether 2023 had been a good or bad year for various entities, the only one voter thought had had a better 2023 than 2022 were large companies and corporations (up ten points on net good to +36). There was a 22-point slump in “your personal financial situation” to -27 and a 14-point slump in the Australian economy to -41.</p>
<p>On what happened in 2023 relative to expectations at the beginning of the year, 49% said it had been worse than expected, 34% as expected and 13% better than expected. For 2024, 32% said it would be worse than 2023, 30% no different and 24% better.</p>
<h2>Redbridge poll, Morgan poll and additional Resolve questions</h2>
<p>A federal <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Federal-vote-intention-and-public-opinion-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a> conducted December 6–11 from a sample of 2,010, gave Labor a 52.8–47.2 lead, a 0.7-point gain for the Coalition since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819">previous Redbridge poll</a> in early November. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (down one) and 19% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>By 53–33, voters thought Labor was not focused on the right priorities (50–36 in <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">November</a>). By 47–33, they thought the Coalition was not ready for government (50–30 previously).</p>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/roy-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-december-2023">Morgan poll</a>, conducted December 4–10 from a sample of 1,719, Labor led by 51–49, unchanged since the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down 0.5), 30.5% Labor (down two), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (steady), 7.5% independents (down one) and 6% others (up two).</p>
<p>I covered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">federal Resolve poll</a> two weeks ago that still gave Labor a large lead. Voters were <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-want-migration-intake-cut-as-albanese-pledges-return-to-sustainable-levels-20231207-p5epxl.html">told net migration</a> to Australia was about 160,000 per year before COVID, but fell to negligible levels during the pandemic. To make up for this, it increased to 184,000 last year and was over 400,000 this year.</p>
<p>On this level of immigration, 62% thought it too high, 23% about right and 3% too low. On next year’s expected 260,000 net migration, 55% said too high, 25% about right and 5% too low. By 57–16, voters thought the government was handling immigration in an unplanned and unmanaged way rather than a carefully planned and managed way.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor far ahead</h2>
<p>A Victorian <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/support-for-allan-dips-but-labor-holds-strong-lead-over-coalition-20231208-p5eq38.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Age, conducted with the federal November and December Resolve polls from a sample of 1,093, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down two since October), the Coalition 31% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one), independents 14% (up four) and others 6% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1733264329775186073">Kevin Bonham estimated</a> a Labor lead by 56.5–43.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition since October. Resolve’s federal polls have been far better for Labor than other polls.</p>
<p>New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s lead as preferred premier over Liberal leader John Pesutto narrowed to 34–22 from 38–19 in October. By 57–22, voters thought students should attend school and protest outside school time, rather than miss school for rallies.</p>
<h2>Annastacia Palaszczuk resigns</h2>
<p>On December 10, Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-10/annastacia-palaszczuk-resigning-as-queensland-premier/103211112">announced she would resign</a> as premier at the end of last week, and as Member for Inala by the end of this year. A byelection will be needed in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/inal">Inala</a>, which Palaszczuk won by 78.2–21.8 against the Liberal Nationals in 2020. </p>
<p>Steven Miles replaced Palaszczuk as Labor leader and premier last Friday after he was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-15/labor-caucus-endorses-steven-miles-as-queensland-premier/103227896">elected unopposed</a> by Labor MPs.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk has been premier since leading Labor to a surprise victory at the 2015 state election, but she has become increasingly unpopular. I <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">wrote two weeks ago</a> that Labor is likely to lose the next election due in October 2024.</p>
<h2>WA Redbridge poll: Labor has huge lead</h2>
<p>The next Western Australian state election is in March 2025. A Redbridge poll was reported by <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/16/wa-state-round-up-redbridge-poll-and-preselections-a-z/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday. It gave Labor a 59.4–40.6 lead, from primary votes of 44% Labor, 29% Liberals, 4% Nationals, 11% Greens, 3% One Nation and 9% for all Others. This would be a 10% swing to the Liberals from the record 2021 Labor landslide, but it’s still a huge lead for Labor.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/16/weekend-miscellany-redbridge-wa-polling-trusted-politicians-senate-vacancies-and-more-open-thread/">federal WA Redbridge poll</a> gave Labor a 55.2–44.8 lead, unchanged from the 2922 federal WA result of 55.0–45.0 to Labor. The sample size was 1,200.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Latest polling suggests Labor’s position might be improving slightly, perhaps due to increased optimism about the state of the economy.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2190122023-12-05T23:08:24Z2023-12-05T23:08:24ZLabor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it’s close in Queensland<p>A federal <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 34% (up four), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down two), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (steady) and others 3% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 55–45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since November.</p>
<p>In my <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">November article on Resolve</a>, I said the big Labor lead was not supported by other recent polls, and this still applies. Last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">week’s Newspoll</a> had a 50–50 tie with the Coalition seven points ahead of Labor on primary votes, while Resolve has Labor one point ahead on primaries.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-peter-dutton-is-winning-the-border-wars-against-anthony-albanese-20231204-p5eops.html">Anthony Albanese’s performance</a>, 48% said it was poor and 37% good, for a net approval of -11, down five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 42–28 (40–27 in November).</p>
<p>Immigration has been in the news recently, and the Liberals led Labor on the immigration and refugees issue by 33–22, out from 28–25 in November. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 26–21, the same margin as in November (29–24). On economic management, the Liberals led by 35–27, virtually unchanged from November (34–27).</p>
<p>By 43–18, voters supported the government <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/more-voters-back-plan-to-rein-in-ndis-costs-20231204-p5eovf.html">limiting spending growth on the NDIS</a> to 8% a year (37–17 in May). On how to limit spending, 38% thought restrictions should be placed on who is given support, 26% didn’t want any spending restrictions and 18% wanted a cap on the amount of money paid to each participant.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and upcoming Dunkley byelection</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9416-federal-voting-intention-december-3-2023">federal Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 27 to December 3 from a sample of 1,730, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 2.5), 32.5% Labor (up 0.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (down 1.5).</p>
<p>Labor’s federal MP for the Victorian seat of Dunkley, Peta Murphy, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mp-peta-murphy-dies-aged-50-20231204-p5eov4.html">died from breast cancer</a> on Monday. In <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-210.htm">2022</a>, Murphy defeated the Liberals by 56.3–43.7. A byelection will be needed in Dunkley in the new year.</p>
<h2>It’s close in a Queensland Resolve poll</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/support-for-labor-steadies-despite-dip-in-palaszczuk-s-popularity-20231205-p5ep30.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from September to December from a sample of 940, gave the Liberal National Party 37% of the primary vote (down one since May to August), Labor 33% (up one), the Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 8% (steady), independents 7% (down one) and others 3% (steady).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/05/resolve-strategic-lnp-37-labor-33-greens-12-in-queensland/">Poll Bludger</a> says the primary votes suggest a “fairly even split on two-party preferred”. However, the clearly better results for Labor in Resolve’s federal polls than in other polls makes me more sceptical of this poll. The last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">Queensland YouGov poll</a>, in early October, gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability was down two points since August to -17, while LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability was up two to +9. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk as preferred premier by 39–34 (37–36 previously).</p>
<p>It looks as if Crisafulli is doing much better than expected given voting intentions. It’s rare for an opposition leader to be ahead on preferred premier. There has been <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/shannon-fentiman-denies-she-has-been-approached-to-replace-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk/news-story/3abf1b67a095ab4b383689b1f1677005">recent speculation</a> that Palaszczuk could be replaced as Labor leader and premier before the next election.</p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since 2015. Although this poll is more positive for Labor, the overall trend this year has been to the LNP. I believe the LNP is the clear favourite to win the next Queensland election.</p>
<h2>Tasmania, WA and the NT</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63435f017f0007502ab52a5d/t/6567dd27d6227f53ebff4ac0/1701305655222/EMRS+State+Voting+Intentions+Report+-+November+2023.pdf">Tasmanian state EMRS poll</a>, conducted November 20–27 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 39% (up one since August), Labor 29% (down three), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 19% (up three). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two party estimate is not applicable.</p>
<p>In May the Liberals slumped to a 36–31 lead over Labor from 42–30 in February, but have since recovered. Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 42–35 (42–39 in August).</p>
<p>The Western Australian state redistribution has been finalised. These boundaries will apply to lower house seats contested at the March 2025 WA election. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/01/western-australian-state-redistribution-finalised/">Poll Bludger</a> said the draft redistribution’s plan to merge two rural seats and create a new urban seat has been maintained.</p>
<p>Very large notional Labor margins in many seats reflect Labor’s record 69.7–30.3 landslide at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_Australian_state_election">2021 WA election</a>, in which they won 53 of the 59 lower house seats. Labor is virtually certain to lose many seats in 2025.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Northern-Territory-Social-Services-11.pdf">Redbridge Northern Territory poll</a>, conducted November 16–18 from a sample of 601, gave the Country Liberal Party 40.6% of the primary vote, Labor 19.7%, the Greens 13.1%, the Shooters 9.4% and independents 14.9%. No two party estimate was provided.</p>
<p>If these results were replicated at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Northern_Territory_general_election">next NT election</a> in August 2024, the incumbent Labor government would be defeated. There were similar results for federal NT voting intentions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the latest poll gives the Labor government a comfortable lead, this is not supported by other polls.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189152023-11-30T09:58:35Z2023-11-30T09:58:35ZGrattan on Friday: As Albanese’s fortunes slide, people start to wonder what sort of PM Peter Dutton might make<p>Peter Dutton has his tail up, but he’s being careful to manage expectations. As the opposition celebrates its suddenly improved fortunes, Dutton told the party room this week that inevitably the government would recalibrate over the summer break. </p>
<p>He also said that from the start, the opposition had been determined to chart a course to return to power after a single term. </p>
<p>Even with Labor’s poll slide among its multiple problems, a Dutton government in 2025 looks, as things stand, unlikely – although Labor in minority is being widely canvassed. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, while a few months ago Dutton was considered simply “unelectable”, now that view is more hedged. If the government’s position doesn’t improve substantially, people will take a more serious look at the hard man from Queensland, and speculate about what sort of prime minister he’d make. </p>
<p>As often remarked, Dutton as opposition leader is another Tony Abbott. He is a relentless attacker, a devotee of the politics of negativity. It’s an unattractive style, but it can get the job done. Remember that when Abbott became leader, it seemed a joke. How could he possibly win an election? </p>
<p>Abbott made a success of opposition but failed in government, brought down – in part – by his poor judgement, obsessions and eccentricities (of which the Prince Philip knighthood was just the most bizarre). </p>
<p>Dutton observed, through the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison eras, how not to run the prime ministership. In those years he also gained ministerial experience. After being assistant treasurer in the Howard government, he was initially health minister under Abbott. He then moved to immigration, home affairs, and finally defence. </p>
<p>As health minister, his performance was ordinary. For him, the ministerial green grass was anything to do with national security. </p>
<p>On security matters, Dutton as prime minister would lean in strongly, at home and abroad. But how would that work out in practice? If he inherited the present improved relationship with China, would he maintain or jeopardise it? Would his very arrival in office prejudice it? He certainly would never give China the benefit of any doubt. How would he deal with a Trump presidency? Or a Biden one?</p>
<p>If Dutton won in 2025 he would inherit a batch of economic problems. As Albanese has found, campaigning on the cost of living is easy but doing much to relieve it is not. On economic matters, Dutton presently doesn’t venture far beyond the politics, and his shadow treasurer Angus Taylor has been an ineffective performer. </p>
<p>That brings us to a potential Dutton cabinet. Though public attention is primarily on the leader, the quality of a government is determined to a significant extent by how good its frontbenchers are. </p>
<p>The Hawke government had an exceptional cabinet. Albanese has a mixed bunch, and some of them have recently set Labor back. Dutton’s team is second rate in opposition, which is not a good sign for government. </p>
<p>One of Dutton’s strengths – and preoccupations – as opposition leader has been holding his party together. Scott Morrison was a control and secrecy freak and a self-confessed “bulldozer”. Dutton is regarded as collegial, even by some Liberals who don’t share his views. He looks to John Howard as a model (one Liberal observer describes him as “a student of Howard”) and would probably run an orderly, conventional cabinet system. </p>
<p>Dutton is also pragmatic. This was evident in government when he facilitated (via the idea of a postal vote) resolving the marriage equality issue, regardless of his personal opinion on it. </p>
<p>But – and this is a major problem – he gives no indication of big picture thinking, let alone an ambitious reform agenda. Policy tidbits he has thrown out in budget reply speeches are small and ad hoc. Leading a Liberal party dominated by conservatives, and with many traditional Liberal voters looking to the teals, Dutton has neither the scope nor the personality to appeal to the country as an inspirational leader. </p>
<p>He does, however, know his prime constituency: the financially-stretched families on the outer rings of the cities. How they will judge him at election time remains to be seen. </p>
<p>Labor is putting maximum effort into discrediting Dutton, all the more important as the memory of Morrison starts to dim. Given he’s long been an unpopular and divisive figure, Dutton’s been a relatively easy target, but this might wear a tad thin. </p>
<p>As the election draws nearer, Dutton and his minders look to his image. He appeared on Annabel Crabb’s Kitchen Cabinet and cooked her a seafood chowder, an upmarket potato soup, presumably a riff on the frequent depiction of him as “potato head”. </p>
<p>Eyewear is now a thing in pursuing the prime ministership. Albanese’s new specs received many media mentions. Dutton’s eyesight may or may not have suddenly deteriorated but his appearance has been improved by donning glasses.</p>
<p>Dutton will remain anathema to parts of the electorate. At the state level: in Victoria. At an electorate level: in teal territory. But the ex-cop from Queensland is a strong asset in that state, where the Coalition needs to guard against Labor incursions. </p>
<p>At Tuesday’s Coalition parties meeting, Dutton indicated next year would see the rollout of policy. This will be a massive test for him. He’s suggested the Coalition won’t pursue a “small target” strategy, as Albanese did. But Bill Shorten showed the risks of going big-target. Dutton will presumably seek to position himself somewhere in between. “We will have a bold agenda,” he told the NSW Liberals at the weekend. “People need a reason to vote for us, not just to vote against the Labor Party.”</p>
<p>His policies will be tested on two fronts. Are they attractive to middle and lower-middle Australia? And can they stand up to the assaults the government (and experts) will mount on them? Dutton will need to clear both hurdles to be credible at the election. And on the economic front, he will be facing the formidable skills of Treasurer Jim Chalmers who, one imagines, will be charged with much of the demolition task.</p>
<p>Also challenging will be Dutton’s policy on climate and energy. He wants to exploit Labor’s problems with the energy transition, but can’t afford to appear reactionary on climate. He’s attracted to nuclear power but will need to be cautious in how he puts it on the table. His energy policy must be deliverable, even if he never gets to deliver it. </p>
<p>Assuming Dutton’s hope of just one term in opposition is fanciful, what would happen if he took substantial bark off Albanese at the election, resulting in minority government? </p>
<p>The conventional wisdom is Dutton gets only one chance. If Josh Frydenberg had decided to contest the 2025 election, and returned to parliament, he’d have been next in line. Sussan Ley and others carry their batons, although there is no heir apparent.</p>
<p>But a skilled head kicker can be quite effective against a minority government and Dutton might, just possibly, hold his post, at least for a time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan explains what a government with a so-called ‘unelectable’ hard man at the helm might look like.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182482023-11-26T22:32:39Z2023-11-26T22:32:39ZLabor loses four points in two Newspolls to slump to a 50–50 tie<p>A federal <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-voters-abandon-anthony-albanese-as-labors-fortunes-nosedive/news-story/75db97702fe93193b9fec4af9c421caa">Newspoll</a>, conducted November 20–24 from a sample of 1,216, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50 after preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (down four), 13% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>In the final Newspoll taken before the October 14 Voice referendum, Labor led by 54–46. Three weeks ago, Labor’s lead had dropped to 52–48 and now it’s tied. This is the <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll">first time Labor has not led</a> in Newspoll since June 2021.</p>
<p>Movements on leaders’ ratings were relatively modest, with Anthony Albanese’s satisfied rating down two to 40% and his dissatisfied rating up one to 53%, for a net approval of -13, down three points. Here is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term.</p>
<p>Peter Dutton’s net approval was steady at -13, so Albanese and Dutton are now tied on net approval. Albanese slightly extended his better PM lead to 46–35 from 46–36 three weeks ago.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-labor-barely-ahead-in-latest-polls-victorian-labor-takes-a-hit-but-holds-mulgrave-at-byelection-217667">wrote on November 19</a> that three polls on average had Labor just ahead, with the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates at its early November meeting probably causing Labor’s drop. This Newspoll is a continuation of that trend to the Coalition.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval has now been in the negative double digits for two Newspolls in a row. The net approval of the PM has been correlated with voting intentions in the past, so Albanese appears to be dragging down Labor’s vote.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll has Coalition ahead</h2>
<p>Last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/roy-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-shows-third-straight-weekly-decline-for-the-alp-government-alp-49-5-cf-l-np-50-5">federal Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 13–19 from a sample of 1,401, gave the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up one), 29.5% Labor (down 0.5), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5), 6.5% One Nation (up 0.5), 7% independents (down one) and 6% others (down 0.5).</p>
<p>This is the second Morgan poll that has had the Coalition ahead, after one <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">conducted in the week</a> after the Voice referendum. However, in that earlier poll, 2022 election preference flows would have given Labor above a 53–47 lead, while applying 2022 preference flows to this poll gives Labor just a 50.5–49.5 lead.</p>
<p>Morgan and Essential federal polls, which both use respondent preferences, have generally shown weaker results for Labor in the last few months than if they used 2022 election flows. It’s plausible that One Nation and others’ preferences have become better for the Coalition since the last election. </p>
<p>The July <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-albanese-and-the-voice-slide-in-resolve-poll-fadden-byelection-preference-flows-211206">Fadden federal byelection</a> gives some evidence for an improvement for the Coalition on preference flows from One Nation voters.</p>
<h2>Wage rises are good economic data for Labor</h2>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on November 15 <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/sep-2023">that wages increased</a> 1.3% in the September quarter for an annual growth of 4.0%. This annual growth is the highest since 2009, and has surged from a low of 1.3% in 2020 owing to the COVID lockdowns.</p>
<p>Before COVID, wages had been growing at about 2% annually since 2014. For the September quarter, the wage increase <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">beat inflation</a> by 0.1%, although it’s 1.4% behind inflation for the 12 months to September.</p>
<p>If wage increases at the current levels are sustained, Labor should benefit at the next election. But inflation and interest rates may need to drop before people start feeling more optimistic about the economy.</p>
<h2>Far-right Javier Milei wins Argentine presidency</h2>
<p>I covered the November 19 Argentine presidential runoff election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/19/argentine-presidential-runoff-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>. The far-right Javier Milei defeated the centre-left Sergio Massa by a 55.7–44.3 margin. But the left still controls the Argentine Senate, though the combined right has a majority in the lower house.</p>
<p>Joe Biden turned 81 on November 20, and I believe US Democrats should consider replacing him as their presidential nominee owing to his age and unpopularity. The Spanish Socialists formed a government four months after the Spanish election.</p>
<p>A new government was formed in New Zealand on Friday after National, ACT and NZ First reached an agreement. I covered a NZ byelection for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/25/nz-port-waikato-by-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday that National won easily. In last Wednesday’s Dutch election, the far-right Party of Freedom won the most seats but is well short of a majority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218248/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Labor government’s once-healthy lead has crashed since the October referendum.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176672023-11-19T05:35:07Z2023-11-19T05:35:07ZFederal Labor barely ahead in latest polls; Victorian Labor takes a hit but holds Mulgrave at byelection<p>There have been three federal polls since my <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">October 13 article</a> on the federal Resolve poll that still had Labor far ahead. These polls show a tie in Morgan and two two-point Labor leads in YouGov and Essential. There has been a clear trend to the Coalition in polls conducted since the October 14 Voice referendum.</p>
<p>YouGov hasn’t conducted Newspoll since mid-July, but is publishing its own polls now. The final <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819">YouGov Voice poll</a> was accurate, giving “no” an 18-point lead (actual margin: 20.1 points).</p>
<p>The latest federal <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/47889-latest-yougov-poll-labor-narrowly-leads-the-coalition-by-51-to-49">YouGov poll</a>, conducted November 10–14 from a sample of 1,582, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since early October. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 13% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped four points to -7, while Peter Dutton’s net approval improved five points to -7. Albanese led Dutton by 48–34 as preferred PM (50–34 <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-voice-polls-have-no-leading-by-sizeable-to-landslide-margins-215264">previously</a>).</p>
<p>On November 7, the Reserve Bank <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-30.html">raised interest rates</a> by 0.25% to 4.35%. This increase appears to have contributed to Labor’s poll slump, with <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9360-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-november-14">Morgan’s consumer confidence index</a> down 3.5 points to 74.3 last week, its lowest since mid-July and continuing a record run of 41 weeks below 85.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor just ahead</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted November 8–12 from a sample of 1,150, gave Labor a 49–47 lead including undecided (48–46 in late October). Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady), 2% UAP (down one), 8% for all Others (down one) and 5% undecided (down one).</p>
<p>This is the second Essential poll to be conducted since they <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/methodology">changed their methods</a> to include weighting by educational level. The gain for the Greens implies Labor should be further ahead, but received a weak flow of respondent allocated preferences.</p>
<p>Respondents were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/14-november-2023">asked to rate</a> Albanese and Dutton from zero to ten. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese had a 35–33 negative rating, reversing a 37–29 positive rating in August. Dutton was at 35–32 negative (35–27 negative in August).</p>
<p>On bushfires, 44% thought this season would be worse than last summer, 10% better and 46% about the same. Asked to compare to the summer of 2019–20, it was 31% worse, 19% better and 50% about the same. By 53–31, voters thought our bushfires are made worse by climate change over having nothing to do with climate change.</p>
<p>On interest rates, 52% (down 11 since June) thought they would continue to rise, 39% (up nine) thought we have reached the peak but they won’t go down for a while and 9% (up two) thought they would start to fall soon. By 49–15, voters thought rising interest rates had had a negative personal impact over a positive one (51–17 in February).</p>
<p>By 46–34, voters thought immigration to Australia was generally positive (50–35 in April 2019).</p>
<p>On the Israel-Gaza conflict, 21% (up eight since October) thought Australia should provide active assistance to Palestine, 17% (down six) assist Israel and 62% (down two) stay out. On tensions between the US and China, 27% said we should support the US, 6% China and 67% stay as neutral as possible.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 50–50 tie</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">weekly Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 6–12 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9534-roy-morgan-update-november-14-2023">sample</a> of 1,397, there was a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 36.5% Coalition, 30% Labor, 13% Greens and 20.5% for all Others.</p>
<p>In a separate <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/australians-are-evenly-divided-on-whether-israel-should-withdraw-their-armed-forces-from-gaza-immediately-or-not">national Morgan SMS</a> poll, conducted November 9–12 from a sample of 1,650, 51% said Israel should withdraw their armed forces from Gaza immediately, while 49% said they should not. </p>
<p>By political support, 93% of Greens favoured immediate withdrawal, 64% of Labor voters and 75% of independents. However, 75% of Coalition voters, 78% of One Nation voters and 57% of other parties’ voters opposed immediate withdrawal.</p>
<h2>Additional Resolve questions</h2>
<p>In additional questions from the Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, by 54–18, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/grounded-pm-brought-back-to-earth-on-economy-20231112-p5ejbb.html">voters supported</a> Albanese visiting the US and President Joe Biden. Support for his visit to China and President Xi Jinping was narrower at 38–31.</p>
<p>By 69–14, voters thought <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-aid-not-arms-as-protests-fuel-safety-fears-20231113-p5ejj8.html">Australia should stay out</a> of the Israel-Palestine conflict for now, rather than intervene by calling for a ceasefire. Israel was favoured on questions on which side to provide aid or arms to.</p>
<p>Support <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voice-fallout-support-for-treaty-plunges-after-referendum-20231116-p5ekg5.html">for a treaty</a> between the Australian government and Indigenous peoples plunged from 58–27 in October, before the Voice referendum’s heavy defeat, to 37–33 opposed in November.</p>
<p>In another development, after losing preselection for his seat of Monash, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-14/russell-broadbent-quits-liberal-party-after-preselection-loss/103102336">Russell Broadbent</a> defected from the Liberals on November 14 and will sit as an independent. Broadbent is 72, and this shows that Australian political parties don’t want very old candidates.</p>
<h2>Victorian Labor easily holds Mulgrave at byelection</h2>
<p>A Victorian state byelection occurred in Mulgrave on Saturday. This seat was previously held by former Labor premier Daniel Andrews. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023/results">Primary votes were</a> 40.1% Labor (down 10.1% since the 2022 election), 21.6% Liberals (up 4.4%), 18.9% for independent Ian Cook (up 0.9%), 5.9% Greens (up 0.8%), 3.8% Victorian Socialists (new), 3.1% Family First (up 1.1%) and 2.9% Libertarian (new).</p>
<p>The electoral commission’s election night preference count was between Labor and Cook, who finished second in 2022. Labor defeated Cook by 56.2–43.8, a 4.7% swing to Cook. I hope the commission will re-do this count between Labor and the Liberals. </p>
<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023/commentary">expects the Liberals</a> to do slightly better than Cook against Labor after preferences. Given the retirement of a high-profile former member and the poor polling for federal Labor, I think this is a decent result for Labor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Labor Party continues the poll slide it has experienced since the failed Voice referendum in October.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2179122023-11-16T10:02:28Z2023-11-16T10:02:28ZGrattan on Friday: A government in a big hurry gives opposition some wins on ex-detainees<p>It’s not very often we see a bill marched through parliament at such a pace as this week. </p>
<p>After being caught on the hop by the High Court, the government has brought in emergency legislation to strengthen its powers to control more than 80 people, some of them serious criminals, it has been forced to release from immigration detention. The bill was introduced in the lower house on Thursday morning and passed the parliament Thursday night. </p>
<p>Those of an irreverent turn of mind might recall Scott Morrison’s Great Strawberry Crisis of September 2018, when a bill was also raced through in a day. </p>
<p>Both the strawberry bill and this one were enacted in the name of “keeping the community safe”. </p>
<p>The strawberry exercise, following the discovery of needles in some fruit, was an obvious political stunt. This week’s legislation goes to a serious matter, although there’s dispute about the threat to community safety, given the risks posed by these people aren’t greater than those presented by local criminals who leave jail. The difference is these are non-citizens.</p>
<p>The High Court isn’t usually front and centre in politics. But when it is, it can land sharp punches that throw governments off balance. </p>
<p>The Albanese government always knew the court might rule, as it did last week, that people can’t be held indefinitely in immigration detention. But on the basis of its past record, the odds seemed against it doing so. </p>
<p>The Coalition says the government failed to take into account a hint months ago from one judge. Certainly the government wasn’t as prepared as it should have been when the decision came. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-latest-citizenship-stripping-plan-risks-statelessness-indefinite-detention-and-constitutional-challenge-107439">The latest citizenship-stripping plan risks statelessness, indefinite detention and constitutional challenge</a>
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<p>It initially concentrated on putting conditions into people’s visas and making sure security and law enforcement authorities were prepared. </p>
<p>It was quickly obvious, however, that a robust response would be required. Regardless of the logic, the argument that these people pose no more danger than do post-sentence Australians wouldn’t wash. This was especially obvious <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/14/sonya-was-told-her-rapist-would-never-be-free-then-a-high-court-decision-saw-him-released-into-the-brisbane-community">when media stories appeared about frightened victims</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-james-paterson-on-the-high-courts-decision-on-detention-and-rising-anti-semitism-217808">Politics with Michelle Grattan: James Paterson on the High Court's decision on detention and rising anti-Semitism</a>
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<p>The government’s situation was complicated by the court’s delay in providing reasons for its decision (on which, incidentally, we don’t know whether the judges were unanimous or split). </p>
<p>The explanation of the court’s action is that this was a habeas corpus case, so the court’s first duty was to the individual at the centre of it. That meant when it decided the man should be released, it had an obligation to say so immediately. </p>
<p>Immigration Minister Andrew Giles, a junior minister, visibly struggled under the Coalition’s attack in parliament. The optics weren’t helped by the departure of Anthony Albanese late Wednesday for the APEC meeting in the United States. It’s been reported this was a trip the PM would have preferred to miss, but felt obliged to make because Joe Biden expected him to be there.</p>
<p>The High Court decision affected immediately more than 90 people, a number of whom had been convicted of major crimes including murder and rape. More than 80 have been released. The total number potentially involved could run into the hundreds.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-high-court-has-decided-indefinite-detention-is-unlawful-what-happens-now-217438">The High Court has decided indefinite detention is unlawful. What happens now?</a>
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<p>The government kept repeating it had no choice but to let the detainees out at once. Minister for Home Affairs Clare O'Neil said, “If I had any legal power to do it, I would keep every one of those people in detention. Some of those people have committed deplorable, disgusting crimes. I am raising three children in this country, and I want a safe Australia.”</p>
<p>The emergency legislation, ticked off by a special caucus meeting, meant the Commonwealth could deploy ankle monitoring bracelets and impose curfews. </p>
<p>There was a catch-22 in the powers the government previously had. If a person breached their visa obligations, they could be sent to immigration detention – but after the court judgement, that penalty was no longer available. This made legislation necessary, so people could be jailed.</p>
<p>The government rushed the bill through the House of Representatives on Thursday morning in about an hour. The opposition was not allowed to move amendments. </p>
<p>The Coalition prepared several amendments, substantially broadening the restrictions, to pursue in the Senate. But, anxious to lower the temperature, speed the bill’s passage, and get the issue off the table, acting Prime Minister Richard Marles approached Opposition leader Peter Dutton. Marles and other ministers met Dutton in Marles’ office, and the government agreed to all the opposition amendments. They included mandatory minimum sentencing for visa breaches – which is inconsistent with Labor’s platform. It’s understood Albanese was kept abreast of things.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-have-no-rights-what-happens-to-stateless-people-in-australia-after-the-high-courts-ruling-217363">'I have no rights': what happens to stateless people in Australia after the High Court's ruling?</a>
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<p>The legislation may be stopgap because, without the court’s reasons the government is working, to a degree, in the dark. More legislation could be needed next year. </p>
<p>The Greens have denounced the extra controls. The Greens’ Nick McKim told the Senate. “Make no mistake, this is Prime Minister Albanese’s Tampa moment and history will condemn him for this, just as it condemned Mr Howard and Mr Beazley over 20 years ago”. This was a reference to Coalition legislation for a drastic response to the asylum seekers on the Tampa.</p>
<p>McKim accused Labor of “an abject craven capitulation by a party that has forgotten where it came from, and forgotten what it used to stand for.” He predicted a High Court challenge to the legislation.</p>
<p>David Manne, executive director of Refugee Legal, says a challenge is “absolutely” possible. He says the new law confers “extraordinary powers” that are beyond necessity and proportionality. </p>
<p>Manne says the controls imposed could involve another deprivation of a person’s liberty, when the High Court has just ruled against the deprivation of their liberty.</p>
<p>In crude political terms, Labor knows it is always potentially vulnerable on issues involving asylum seekers and refugees. That vulnerability is on two flanks. The Coalition will exploit any situation to paint Labor as weak. The Greens will cast Labor as heartless. </p>
<p>The government hopes the legislation provides the necessary belt and braces to send the community the message that, despite initial fumbling, it is in control of this unexpected situation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The High Court isn’t usually front and centre in politics. But when it is, it can land unexpected punches that throw governments off balance.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2171872023-11-12T23:20:53Z2023-11-12T23:20:53ZLabor still far ahead in Resolve poll, in contrast to other recent polls<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-cut-support-for-labor-as-cost-of-living-concerns-mount-20231109-p5eius.html?btis=">federal Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted November 1–5 from a sample of 1,602, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (down two since October), the Coalition 30% (down one), the Greens 13% (up one), One Nation 7% (steady), the UAP 2% (steady), independents 9% (steady) and others 4% (up two).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two party estimate until close to elections, but an estimate based on applying 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 57–43 lead, unchanged since October. While this poll was published today, it was taken over a week ago, before the November 7 <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-30.html">interest rate rise</a>.</p>
<p>Resolve’s polls since the 2022 election have been far better for Labor than other polls. Other recent federal polls have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819">last week’s</a> Newspoll and Redbridge poll that gave Labor respectively a 52–48 and a 53.5–46.5 lead, a 52–48 Labor lead in Morgan and a 48–46 Labor lead in a late <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">October Essential</a> poll including undecided voters.</p>
<p>While Resolve’s voting intentions are much better for Labor than other recent polls, their leaders’ ratings are not. On Anthony Albanese, 46% thought he was doing a poor job and 39% a good job, for a net approval of -6, down seven points since October. Albanese’s net approval was +27 after the May budget.</p>
<p>Dutton’s net approval improved 11 points since October to -4, his best net approval since the election and the first time in any poll Dutton has had a better net approval than Albanese. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 40–27, a narrowing from 47–25 previously.</p>
<p>The Liberals extended their lead over Labor on economic management from 35–33 to 34–27. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals reversed a 31–27 Labor lead in October to take a 29–24 lead. These are the Liberals’ best results on these issues since the election. With 52% naming cost of living as the highest priority for their vote, this issue matters. </p>
<p>Voters are pessimistic about the economic outlook. In the next three months, 50% expect the economy to get worse and just 8% improve. In the next year, it’s 41% get worse and 23% improve.</p>
<p>By 60–19, voters said their income had not kept up with inflation over the past year. By 64–8, they expected inflation to get worse in the near future. By 65–9, they did not think interest rate rises are coming to an end.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and additional questions from other polls</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan federal poll</a>, conducted October 30 to November 5 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9531-roy-morgan-update-november-8-2023">sample</a> of 1,371, Labor led by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 35% Coalition, 31.5% Labor, 13.5% Greens and 20% for all Others.</p>
<p>Voters in last week’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/cut-spending-taxes-to-curb-inflation-and-ease-living-expenses-says-newspoll/news-story/71f2a81154c9bfc77749a5a748bfbf0d">Newspoll</a> were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of five measures to help with cost of living.</p>
<p>Subsidising energy bills was most supported at 84% approve, followed by subsidising fuel prices (81%), cutting government spending (77%), giving tax cuts to individuals (73%) and giving cash payments to low-income families (56%).</p>
<p>In <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Vote-intention-Nov-2023.pdf">additional questions</a> from Redbridge, by 50–36 voters thought the Albanese government was not focused on the right priorities. By 50–30, they thought the Coalition was not ready for government.</p>
<p>Essential had questions on the Melbourne Cup that were released on Cup Day November 7 in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/07/melbourne-cup-2023-horse-race-field-broadcast-horses-australia-interest-day">The Guardian</a> from the previous <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/31-october-2023">national Essential poll</a> in late October.</p>
<p>On interest in the Cup, 11% said they had high interest (down four since 2022), 24% moderate interest (down seven), 27% low interest (up three) and 35% no interest (up seven). On betting, 13% regularly bet on horses and the Cup (down five) and 26% rarely bet on horses but make an exception for the Cup (down three).</p>
<p>On attitudes to the Melbourne Cup, 65% said it is a unique part of Australia’s national identity (down seven), 48% said it promotes unhealthy gambling behaviour (up three) and 36% said it normalises animal cruelty (up two).</p>
<h2>US off-year elections</h2>
<p>While the United States presidential election is in November 2024, there were some state elections on November 7. I covered the results for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/07/us-off-year-elections-live-2/">The Poll Bludger</a>. Democrats performed well in the headline races, holding the Kentucky governorship and gaining control of the Virginia legislature, while Ohio passed two referendums supported by Democrats.</p>
<p>However, the legislative elections were mediocre for Democrats, as they did worse than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. US polls show Biden struggling against Donald Trump, and these elections should not change our opinion of 2024.</p>
<h2>NSW Resolve poll: drop for both major parties’ primary votes</h2>
<p>A New South Wales <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-slides-as-greens-independents-make-ground-20231109-p5eiuo.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal October and November Resolve polls from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor 36% of the primary vote (down two since September), the Coalition 32% (down four), the Greens 13% (up four), independents 12% (down one) and others 7% (up three).</p>
<p>No two-party estimate was provided, but <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/12/resolve-strategic-labor-36-coalition-32-greens-13-in-new-south-wales/">The Poll Bludger</a> estimated a 56.5–43.5 Labor lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor <a href="https://theconversation.com/support-for-both-the-voice-and-labor-drop-in-latest-essential-poll-213350">since September</a>. Labor Premier Chris Minns held a 35–13 lead over the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier (41–14 in September).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217187/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor still leads on two-party preferred, but is feeling the strain as cost of living pressures take hold.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168192023-11-05T23:32:49Z2023-11-05T23:32:49ZAlbanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election<p>A national <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coalition-leading-on-primary-vote-as-dutton-closes-in-on-albanese/news-story/9e2c3b2e95123cbcfc8ad1604239b39a">Newspoll</a>, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice referendum. This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Newspoll since the 2022 federal election. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up two percentage points), 35% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all others (down one).</p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 52% dissatisfied (up six points) and 42% satisfied (down four), for a net approval of -10, down ten points. This is easily his lowest net approval in Newspoll since becoming PM. This graph shows the continued decline in Albanese’s Newspoll ratings since late 2022.</p>
<p>Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval improved five points to -13. Albanese’s lead over Dutton for preferred prime minister narrowed to 46–36%, from 51–31% previously. This is also Albanese’s smallest lead since the election. Newspoll and Redbridge figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/05/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-open-thread/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>The slumping polls show how damaging the heavy defeat of the Voice referendum and continuing cost of living pressures have been to Albanese and Labor.</p>
<h2>Redbridge national poll: Labor’s lead holds steady</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/nsw/voice-focus-stirs-blue-collar-revolt-against-anthony-albanese-and-the-labor-party/news-story/2c59d527389c7fbdf0283d2ecb456ff7">Herald Sun</a>
reported Sunday that a Redbridge national poll, conducted October 25 to November 2 from a sample of 1,205 people, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5% lead over the Coalition, a 0.6-point gain for the Coalition since <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Federal-Poll-Sept-2023.pdf">early September</a>. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 35% Coalition (down one point), 34% Labor (down three), 14% Greens (up one) and 17% for all others (up three).</p>
<p>The Herald Sun emphasised large primary vote swings against Labor among those with lower educational attainment, but these would be based on small subsamples of the overall sample, and are thus not reliable.</p>
<h2>Voice referendum final results</h2>
<p>All of the votes in the October 14 referendum on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament have now been counted and the final results are in.</p>
<p>Nationally, “no” won the <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/ReferendumNationalResults-29581.htm">referendum</a> by a 60.06–39.94% margin, or 20.1 points. “No” also won every state, by 8.3 percentage points in Victoria, 17.9 points in New South Wales and Tasmania, 26.5 points in Western Australia, 28.3 points in South Australia and 36.4 points in Queensland.</p>
<p>For the referendum to be successful, it needed a majority in at least four of the six states, as well as a national majority. The territories are counted towards the national total, but not the majority of states. The “no” vote won in the Northern Territory by 20.6 percentage points, while “yes” came out ahead in the ACT by 22.6 points.</p>
<p>Nationally, 34 of the 151 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/referendum/2023/results?filter=all&sort=yes&state=all&party=all">House of Representatives electorates</a>
voted “yes” while 117 voted “no”. In NSW, 11 of 47 seats voted “yes”, in Victoria 13 of 39, in Queensland three of 30, in WA two of 15, in SA none of ten, in Tasmania two of five, in the ACT all three seats and in the NT none of two.</p>
<p>All seven seats won by “teal” independents and all four won by Greens at the 2022 election voted “yes”, as did 21 of the 78 Labor-held seats. Bradfield in NSW was the only one of 57 Coalition-held seats to vote “yes”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-australians-supported-voice-referendum-by-large-margins-labor-retains-large-newspoll-lead-215663">Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead</a>
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<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/some-graphs-on-the-voice-referendum-result/">has a chart showing</a> the “yes” and “no” split by vote type. Pre-poll ordinary votes were far worse for “yes” than polling day ordinary votes, and postals were even worse. But both polling day absent votes and declaration pre-poll votes were better for the “yes” side than polling day ordinary votes.</p>
<p>Turnout for the referendum was 89.9%, higher than the 89.8% turnout recorded for the House at the last federal election.</p>
<h2>How did the polls do?</h2>
<p>The graph below shows the “yes” lead or deficit in all polls conducted this year, culminating with the final result (“no” by 20.1 points). Newspoll’s final poll was the most accurate, showing a 20-point “no” lead. YouGov’s final poll had an 18-point “no” lead, while Focaldata’s poll suggested a 22-point defeat.</p>
<p>Other pollsters did not perform as well, such as Morgan, whose final poll showed “no” with just a seven-point lead, and Essential, which had given “no” a six-point lead. Essential has <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/methodology">altered its methodology</a> since the referendum to weight results by education level.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/indigenous/voice-referendum-newspoll-late-swing-for-yes-campaign-but-nation-poised-to-say-no/news-story/7096dcf9234291d496ba016ccaa5142c">Newspoll’s state breakdowns</a> were also good at the state level, with the exception of WA. “No” led in the final Newspoll by 13 points in NSW, eight points in Victoria, 35 points in Queensland, 27 points in SA, 37 points in WA and 17 points in Tasmania.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-falls-in-newspoll-to-new-low-but-is-up-in-resolve-though-still-well-behind-215156">Resolve poll</a> had “yes” ahead in Tasmania by 56–44% in its final poll, which was a large error given “no” won in the state by almost 18 points.</p>
<p>Newspoll was administered by YouGov until mid-July, but is now managed by Pyxis. Both the new Newspoll and YouGov performed well.</p>
<h2>Victorian Mulgrave byelection</h2>
<p>A byelection will occur on November 18 in the Victorian state seat of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023">Mulgrave</a>, previously held by former Labor Premier Daniel Andrews. At the 2022 state election, Andrews defeated independent Ian Cook after preferences by 60.8–39.2%, and the Liberals by 60.2–39.8%. </p>
<p>Cook is running for the seat again. He will face nine other candidates, including Labor’s Eden Foster and the Liberals’ Courtney Mann.</p>
<h2>Argentine legislative results</h2>
<p>I covered the Argentine legislative results from the October 22 election in my article for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/03/new-zealand-election-results-finalisation-12pm-aedt-today/">The Poll Bludger</a>. The combined right-wing parties won control of the lower house in Argentina, but failed in the Senate owing to a system similar to first-past-the-post.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The slumping polls show how damaging the heavy defeat of the Voice referendum and continuing cost of living pressures have been to the prime minister and Labor.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168912023-11-02T19:14:00Z2023-11-02T19:14:00ZIs nuclear the answer to Australia’s climate crisis?<p>In Australia’s race to net zero emissions, nuclear power has surged back into the news. Opposition leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://ipa.org.au/research/climate-change-and-energy/peter-dutton-address-to-ipa-members-sydney-7-july-2023">argues</a> nuclear is “the only feasible and proven technology” for cutting emissions. Energy Minister Chris Bowen insists Mr Dutton is promoting “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-18/energy-minister-says-nuclear-power-too-expensive/102868218">the most expensive form of energy</a>”.</p>
<p>Is nuclear a pragmatic and wise choice blocked by ideologues? Or is Mr Bowen right that promoting nuclear power is about as sensible as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/-unicorn-and-a-fantasy-energy-minister-slams-nuclear-energy/102866944">chasing “unicorns”</a>?</p>
<p>For someone who has not kept up with developments in nuclear energy, its prospects may seem to hinge on safety. Yet by any hard-nosed accounting, the risks from modern nuclear plants are orders of magnitude lower than those of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Deep failures in design and operational incompetence caused the Chernobyl disaster. Nobody died at Three Mile Island or from Fukushima. Meanwhile, a Harvard-led study found <a href="https://seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought">more than one in six deaths globally</a> – around 9 million a year – are attributable to polluted air from fossil combustion.</p>
<p>Two more mundane factors help to explain why nuclear power has halved as a share of global electricity production since the 1990s. They are time and money.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The might of Wright’s law</h2>
<p>There are four arguments against investment in nuclear power: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant">Olkiluoto 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant#Unit_3">Flamanville 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station">Hinkley Point C</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant">Vogtle</a>. These are the four major latest-generation plants completed or near completion in Finland, the United States, the United Kingdom and France respectively. </p>
<p>Cost overruns at these recent plants average over 300%, with more increases to come. The cost of Vogtle, for example, soared from US$14 billion to $34 billion (A$22-53 billion), Flamanville from €3.3 billion to €19 billion (A$5-31 billion), and <a href="https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/nuclear-economics-lessons-from-lazard-to-hinkley-point-c">Hinkley Point C</a> from £16 billion to as much as £70 billion (A$30-132 billion), including subsidies. Completion of Vogtle <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vogtles-troubles-bring-us-nuclear-challenge-into-focus-2023-08-24/">has been delayed</a> by seven years, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-18-years-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-start-regular-output-sunday-2023-04-15/">Olkiluoto</a> by 14 years, and <a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/decree-sets-startup-deadline-of-2024-4-3-2020">Flamanville</a> by at least 12 years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>A fifth case is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Generating_Station">Virgil C</a>, also in the US, for which US$9 billion (A$14 billion) was spent before cost overruns led the project to be abandoned. All three firms building these five plants – Westinghouse, EDF, and AREVA – went bankrupt or were nationalised. Consumers, companies and taxpayers <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/18/hinkley-points-cost-consumers-surges-50bn/">will bear the costs</a> for decades.</p>
<p>By contrast, average cost overruns for wind and solar are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/we.2069">around zero</a>, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629614000942">lowest</a> of all energy infrastructure.</p>
<p><a href="https://ark-invest.com/wrights-law/">Wright’s law</a> states the more a technology is produced, the more its costs decline. Wind and especially solar power and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline">lithium-ion batteries</a> have all experienced <a href="https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2023/Aug/Renewables-Competitiveness-Accelerates-Despite-Cost-Inflation">astonishing cost declines</a> over the last two decades.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>For nuclear power, though, Wright’s law has been inverted. The more capacity installed, the more costs have increased. Why? This <a href="https://www.cell.com/joule/pdf/S2542-4351(20)30458-X.pdf">2020 MIT study</a> found that safety improvements accounted for around 30% of nuclear cost increases, but the lion’s share was due to persistent flaws in management, design, and supply chains.</p>
<p>In Australia, such costs and delays would ensure that we miss our emissions reduction targets. They would also mean spiralling electricity costs, as the grid waited for generation capacity that did not come. For fossil fuel firms and their political friends, this is the real attraction of nuclear – another decade or two of sales at inflated prices.</p>
<h2>Comparing the cost of nuclear and renewables</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, nuclear advocates tell us we have no choice: wind and solar power are intermittent power sources, and the cost of making them reliable is too high.</p>
<p>But let’s compare the cost of reliably delivering a megawatt hour of electricity to the grid from nuclear versus wind and solar. According to both <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP2022-5511&dsid=DS1">the CSIRO</a> and respected energy market analyst <a href="https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf">Lazard Ltd</a>, nuclear power has a cost of A$220 to $350 per megawatt hour produced.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<p>Without subsidies or state finance, the four plants cited above generally hit or exceed the high end of this range. By contrast, Australia is already building wind and solar plants at under <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/act-starts-to-bank-its-cheapest-wind-power-yet-in-next-stage-to-kick-out-fossil-fuels/">$45</a> and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-gets-stunning-low-price-for-wind-and-solar-in-biggest-renewables-auction/">$35 per megawatt hour</a> respectively. That’s a tenth of the cost of nuclear.</p>
<p>The CSIRO has <a href="https://www.csiro.au/-/media/EF/Files/GenCost/GenCost2022-23Final_27-06-2023.pdf">modelled the cost</a> of renewable energy that is firmed – meaning made reliable, mainly via batteries and other storage technologies. It found the necessary transmission lines and storage would add only $25 to $34 per megawatt hour.</p>
<p>In short, a reliable megawatt hour from renewables costs around a fifth of one from a nuclear plant. We could build a renewables grid large enough to meet demand twice over, and still pay less than half the cost of nuclear.</p>
<h2>The future of nuclear: small modular reactors?</h2>
<p>Proponents of nuclear power pin their hopes on <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:%7E:text=Small%20modular%20reactors%20(SMRs)%20are,of%20traditional%20nuclear%20power%20reactors.">small modular reactors</a> (SMRs), which replace huge gigawatt-scale units with small units that offer the possibility of being produced at scale. This might allow nuclear to finally harness Wright’s law.</p>
<p>Yet commercial SMRs are years from deployment. The US firm <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en">NuScale</a>, scheduled to build two plants in Idaho by 2030, has not yet broken ground, and on-paper costs have already <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-released-nuscale-small-modular-reactor">ballooned</a> to around A$189 per megawatt hour.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-original-and-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy-213879">The original and still the best: why it's time to renew Australia's renewable energy policy</a>
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<p>And SMRs are decades away from broad deployment. If early examples work well, in the 2030s there will be a round of early SMRs in the US and European countries that have existing nuclear skills and supply chains. If that goes well, we may see a serious rollout from the 2040s onwards.</p>
<p>In these same decades, solar, wind, and storage will still be descending the Wright’s law cost curve. Last year the Morrison government was spruiking the goal of getting solar below <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ultra-low-cost-solar-power-a-priority-for-australia-20220108-p59msj.html">$15 per megawatt hour by 2030</a>. SMRs must achieve improbable cost reductions to compete.</p>
<p>Finally, SMRs may be necessary and competitive in countries with poor renewable energy resources. But Australia has the richest combined solar and wind resources in the world.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<h2>Should we lift the ban?</h2>
<p>Given these realities, should Australia lift its ban on nuclear power? A repeal would have no practical effect on what happens in electricity markets, but it might have political effects. </p>
<p>A future leader might seek short-term advantage by offering enormous subsidies for nuclear plants. The true costs would arrive years after such a leader had left office. That would be tragic for Australia. With our unmatched solar and wind resources, we have the chance to deliver among the cheapest electricity in the developed world.</p>
<p>Mr Dutton may be right that the ban on nuclear is unnecessary. But in terms of getting to net zero as quickly and cheaply as possible, Mr Bowen has the relevant argument. To echo one assessment from the UK, nuclear for Australia would be “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-10-30/u-k-risks-looking-economically-insane-with-edf-nuclear-deal?">economically insane</a>”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Reuben Finighan is a research fellow at the Superpower Institute.</span></em></p>When Australia’s government and opposition argue over how to get to net zero emissions, nuclear power is the flashpoint. The argument against nuclear is stronger, but not for the obvious reason.Reuben Finighan, PhD candidate at the LSE and Research Fellow at the Superpower Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2160082023-10-19T08:06:10Z2023-10-19T08:06:10ZCabinet Minister Ed Husic says Palestinians are being ‘collectively punished’ for Hamas’ barbarism<p>Industry Minister Ed Husic, the only Muslim in the Albanese cabinet, has said he feels “very strongly” that Palestinians are being “collectively punished” for Hamas’ barbarism.</p>
<p>As the Middle East crisis risks raising tensions within Labor, which has a divided feelings about Palestine, Husic sought to tread a careful line, while emphasising the mounting toll of Palestinian victims. </p>
<p>“Let me put it in a way that might be difficult for some to hear,” <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-19/husic-says-palestinians-being-collectively-punished/102995306">he said on the ABC</a>. “It might also go to some way explaining why Palestinians and people who are sympathetic of them have reacted in the way that they have.”</p>
<p>He said the Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians had been described as Israel’s equivalent of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States.</p>
<p>“The number of Palestinians that have been killed so far equates to the number of people who lost their lives in 9/11,” Husic said. </p>
<p>“We don’t see any public landmarks in Australia that are being lit up in red, black, white and green,” a reference to the Opera House and Parliament House being lit with Israel’s colours after the attacks.</p>
<p>“Now there will be people that are very uncomfortable with me making that remark. But it goes to the heart of what Palestinians and those who care for them in Australia […] think, which is that Palestinian lives are considered lesser.”</p>
<p>A humanitarian catastrophe was unfolding in Gaza, Husic said. There were choices that could be made to avoid that.</p>
<p>“It’s really important that we are conscious of that, and that we contribute to international voices speaking up for Palestinians, particularly innocent Palestinian families.” The 3000 deaths so far included about 1000 children.</p>
<p>It was important to say there had to be “a more strategic and precise way to hold Hamas to account, but not affect innocent Palestinian families,” he said. </p>
<p>“You’ve got homes, schools, medical centres destroyed – that’s before we even contemplate how they’ll get rebuilt. No food, fuel, medicines, water. </p>
<p>"It’s no surprise that there are some saying that this is the collective punishment being extended to Palestinians.” </p>
<p>Husic said he was very mindful of Anthony Albanese’s words that protecting the innocent was not a sign of weakness but a sign of strength. “I genuinely believe there needs to be a de-escalation.” </p>
<p>He also felt while pursuing a two-state solution was once seen as important, now “this is spoken more as a way in which we can just comfort ourselves at these points, and then when the situation and the tensions subside, nothing practically happens”.</p>
<p>Husic said he had made clear his depth of feeling for Israelis who had suffered and acknowledged Israel’s would respond to the Hamas barbarism. </p>
<p>“I have made that clear, but I’m also genuinely concerned about what happens to innocent Palestinians from this point on.” </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-kim-beazley-on-albaneses-us-trip-biden-in-the-middle-east-and-the-voices-defeat-215896">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Kim Beazley on Albanese's US trip, Biden in the Middle East, and the Voice's defeat</a>
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<p>Anne Aly, also Muslim, who is in the outer ministry, said some people said Israel had committed war crimes. Asked whether she believed that, she told the ABC it was “possibly something that could be investigated. And I think that anyone, any state or any group that commits war crimes should be investigated and should be held accountable.”</p>
<p>Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley said Husic’s comments exposed Labor’s deep division about Israel.</p>
<p>“Cabinet ministers do not get the luxury of freelancing on foreign policy and the precedent is very clear when ministers publicly disagree with their government’s official position,” Ley said in a statement.</p>
<p>Foreign Minister Penny Wong told the Senate: “Every innocent life matters, whether Israeli or Palestinian.”</p>
<p>She said at home “our role as a government and I would say our role as a Senate is to do all we can to keep our country unified, to make sure our community feels heard. </p>
<p>"There are times where it is important that we actually put aside partisan politics and differences of views because there’s a greater purpose to what we are doing,” she said.</p>
<p>Opposition leader Peter Dutton said the Prime Minister, who will be in Washington for a state visit next week, should go to Israel.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216008/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the Middle East crisis risks raising tensions within Labor, which has a divided feelings about Palestine, Husic sought to tread a careful line, while emphasising the mounting toll of Palestinian victimsMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2156762023-10-15T10:14:39Z2023-10-15T10:14:39ZView from The Hill: There is a way forward to tackle Indigenous disadvantage after referendum defeat<p>Amid the bitter blame game following the rout of the government’s Voice referendum, there’s mostly agreement on one point. Australia must address more effectively the appalling disadvantage suffered by many of its Indigenous citizens. </p>
<p>To state the obvious, this is easy to say but has proved nearly impossible up to now. Poverty, intergenerational trauma, remoteness and many other factors combine into intractable vicious circles. </p>
<p>But – while you’d hardly know it from what politicians and commentators have said during the fractious Voice debate – there is a structure in place that could be used in this post-referendum phase. </p>
<p>The 2020 National Agreement on Closing the Gap, forged between federal, state, territory and local governments and the Coalition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peak Organisations, provides for shared decision-making through partnerships. </p>
<p>The agreement has so far fallen far short of its potential. </p>
<p>A damning draft Productivity Commission report earlier this year highlighted failures in its implementation, mainly because the bureaucracy wasn’t properly on board. The report asked whether “governments have fully grasped the scale of change required to their systems, operations and ways of working to deliver the unprecedented shift they have committed to”. </p>
<p>The Albanese government has talked minimally about the agreement, presumably because it wanted to emphasise a current lack of voice rather than highlighting what was there already. Or perhaps it just wasn’t keen on something the Morrison government had set up.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-anthony-albanese-promises-to-continue-to-advance-reconciliation-despite-sweeping-defeat-of-referendum-215662">View from The Hill: Anthony Albanese promises to continue to 'advance reconciliation' despite sweeping defeat of referendum</a>
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<p>Surely now is the time to put more effort into this agreement and to shake up the relevant bureaucratic structures. These include the National Indigenous Australians Agency, located in the Prime Minister’s Department, which has a central role in policy design and implementation and advises the PM and the Minister for Indigenous Australians, Linda Burney. Critics say it needs reform.</p>
<p>In the days ahead the government needs to engage more intensively with the Coalition of Peaks, which covers more than 80 Indigenous bodies. Its lead convenor is longtime Indigenous advocate Pat Turner, who has a wealth of experience in the public service. Turner is presently head of the National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation (NACCHO), which Health Minister Mark Butler strongly praised on Sunday. </p>
<p>Regardless of who is to blame for the referendum disaster – Anthony Albanese for going ahead with it, Peter Dutton for refusing to support it, other players, or everybody – the damage is now done. The necessary postmortems will be held, but analysing the politics after the event will do nothing for those people in remote communities and town camps where health is appalling, education inadequate, housing unsuitable, and jobs lacking or limited. </p>
<p>The chance of a constitutional Voice is gone forever. But those voices that do exist can be mobilised better for the Indigenous good. That, however, will require new vigour from government, and regrouping from demoralised Indigenous leaders who campaigned for “yes”. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-referendum-results-point-to-shifting-faultlines-in-australian-politics-215673">Voice referendum results point to shifting faultlines in Australian politics</a>
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<p>Many of these leaders are so bruised and angry they’ll want to opt out. However understandable that may be, they, like the government, have an obligation to look to ways other than a constitutional Voice to help the lives of their people. </p>
<p>The government itself needs more firepower for Closing the Gap – to which Albanese has declared it remains committed. It should beef up its team in the Indigenous area. </p>
<p>Burney has found the referendum campaign a massive strain. Patrick Dodson, the “father of reconciliation”, has serious health problems. Assistant Minister Malarndirri McCarthy performed well under an increasing load in the latter days of the campaign, but can’t be expected to carry much more. </p>
<p>One candidate who could bring special knowledge is Gordon Reid, who won the New South Wales coastal seat of Robertson from the Liberals at the election. Of Indigenous heritage, Reid is a former emergency department doctor, a useful qualification when health is one of the biggest “gap” challenges. Another suitable candidate would be Marion Scrymgour, an Indigenous woman who is a former deputy chief minister of the Northern Territory.</p>
<p>For Albanese, Saturday’s defeat is a huge personal disappointment as well as a political setback, although not necessarily one with serious future electoral consequences. For most voters, the Voice was not a first-order priority, and they will be judging the government on other things come election time. </p>
<p>But the issue has highlighted some of Albanese’s weaknesses. He was overconfident in his own ability to persuade people. We again saw he is not a great campaigner (evident at the election despite his victory). Not that even the best of campaigners could have won this one.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-political-subjugation-of-first-nations-peoples-is-no-longer-historical-legacy-213752">The political subjugation of First Nations peoples is no longer historical legacy</a>
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<p>These past few weeks have also suggested Albanese will need to manage his energy better if he is to perform well for the long haul. Obviously he wanted to do all he could in the final days of the campaign. But tearing around the country, when it was clear the vote was lost, was excessive and left him looking exhausted. He would have been wiser in the final week simply to have gone to Uluru and left it at that, especially given the government needed to have more attention than it did on the Israel-Gaza crisis. </p>
<p>Albanese wants the government (and himself personally as prime minister) to be seen as never wasting a minute. But, taken to the extreme, this can be counterproductive for achievement and messaging. </p>
<p>Leaders are stronger and tougher than the rest of us. But they are not superhuman, and they need to pace themselves if they are not to wear out, lose focus, and become frazzled and tetchy. Albanese would have vivid memories of one Labor predecessor who ended up like that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215676/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While you’d hardly know it from what politicians and commentators have said during the fractious Voice debate – there is a structure in place that could be used in this post-referendum phaseMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2149612023-10-15T07:45:14Z2023-10-15T07:45:14ZHow did the media perform on the Voice referendum? Let’s talk about truth-telling and impartiality<p>The rules by which politics are conducted have changed dramatically, especially since the rise of Trumpism. Yet the professional mass media continue to cover politics in ways that are no longer fit for purpose.</p>
<p>This has created distortions in the way the public discourse unfolds – distortions that have been on full display during the Voice referendum debate.</p>
<p>It presents a complex challenge to journalists and editors about how to simultaneously meet their obligations to truth-telling and impartiality, because there is now an unresolved tension between these two professional standards.</p>
<p>Truth-telling requires that lies and misrepresentations are either not published or refuted; impartiality requires that voices on all sides of a debate be heard, especially if they are the voices of people in positions of influence.</p>
<p>What happens, then, when influential voices on one side of a debate engage in obvious falsehoods?</p>
<p>Take two examples from the Voice debate: Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/25/indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-aec-poll-unfairness-claims-rejected">allegation</a> that the Australian Electoral Commission had rigged the referendum outcome by accepting ticks but not crosses as indicative of voting intention, and Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price’s claim that colonialisation has had a positive impact on First Nations Australians.</p>
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<p>In the pre-Trump era, journalists could have counted on the self-righting process of politics to kick in, governed by conventions that repudiated gross falsehoods and imposed consequences.</p>
<p>A completely baseless allegation by a leader of the opposition that the voting system was rigged would probably have finished his career on the grounds that he had undermined public confidence in the electoral process.</p>
<p>And an outlandish claim of the kind made by Price would have been quickly rebutted by other public voices referring to the facts from Closing the Gap, the findings of various royal commissions and countless other sources of reputable data on Aboriginal disadvantage.</p>
<p>Instead, Dutton sails on as leader of a party that seems to think his conduct unremarkable, perhaps even politically advantageous, while Price begins to be spoken about in certain circles as a potential prime minister.</p>
<p>So the pre-Trumpian self-righting process can no longer be relied on. The old expectation that by exposing misrepresentations of this kind, the media will be holding these public figures to account is dead. Instead, it just gives them publicity.</p>
<p>At the same time, the responsible elements of the professional mass media try to adhere to established standards of truth-telling and impartiality by publishing rebuttals or condemnations.</p>
<p>In the Dutton case, The Australian published <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/coalitions-claims-on-rigged-voice-vote-must-be-called-out/news-story/fe0eecbc0c3cdb7dcd31d5c12c192517">a sharp response</a> from the constitutional lawyer George Williams, calling out Dutton’s “irresponsible and harmful” conduct. In the Price case, her comments provoked a backlash published in many newspapers, including the Canberra Times, where <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8350469/indigenous-minister-blasts-comments-about-colonisation/">her remarks were condemned</a> as “offensive” by the Minister for Indigenous Australians Linda Burney.</p>
<p>This is all very well, but these responses appear days after the initial misrepresentations. In that time, the damage is done, the social media beast has devoured and regurgitated them in almost unrecognisable form, and public attention has long ago been diverted to some newer excitement. By then, to quote Winston Churchill, the lie has gone halfway around the world before truth has got its boots on.</p>
<p>There is no easy and conclusive answer to this dilemma. But there are some steps the media could take to make it less acute.</p>
<p>First, it requires a commitment from the media not to indulge in disinformation of its own. During the Voice debate, for example, several News Corporation mastheads – though not all – published an article claiming the Uluru Statement from the Heart was not one page but 20-plus pages, and included references to treaties and reparations, none of which formed part of the statement or the proposed Voice.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/journalists-reporting-on-the-voice-to-parliament-do-voters-a-disservice-with-he-said-she-said-approach-204361">Journalists reporting on the Voice to Parliament do voters a disservice with 'he said, she said' approach</a>
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<p>This was too much even for some other News Corp journalists, who pointed out that the document referred to was not the statement itself but a record of meetings and discussions leading up to it.</p>
<p>The second step the media could take requires the application of a few filters. The first is: does this need to be run at all? If the answer is yes, then how can a neutralising antidote be delivered at the same time? Or can this wait until the speaker can be challenged on it?</p>
<p>The third – and some in the media are already doing this – is to confront the threat disinformation poses by drawing attention to examples and calling them out. During the Voice debate, articles of this kind appeared in the Canberra Times and The Age, as well as in the George Williams article in The Australian referred to earlier.</p>
<p>So much for truth-telling: now for impartiality.</p>
<p>Impartiality does not oblige a broadcaster or publisher to ventilate lies, fantasies or misrepresentations as if they are true.</p>
<p>It is not a failure of impartiality to call Dutton’s utterance a baseless allegation at the time of reporting it. It is accurate and it is fair, two vital elements in impartiality.</p>
<p>It is not a failure of impartiality to report Price’s remarks and in the next paragraph point out that this view is refutable by reference to whatever data seem most apt.</p>
<p>Another element in the impartiality equation is balance. Balance is not about giving equal time, space or prominence to each or every side of a story. Balance follows the weight of evidence.</p>
<p>In the context of the referendum, it is false balance to give equal weight to the claim that the proposed Constitutional amendment would import a divisive race-based element into the Constitution, and to the constitutional lawyers’ opinion that it does no such thing.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-will-not-give-special-rights-or-create-a-veto-196574">An Indigenous Voice to Parliament will not give 'special rights' or create a veto</a>
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<p>The fact is that the Constitution already contains two race-based clauses: 25 and 51, the latter known specifically as the “race power”. Reporting the claim of racial divisiveness without the contradicting facts is a failure of balance.</p>
<p>Giving effect to these remedies requires close scrutiny of potential content and rigorous editorial decision-making.</p>
<p>The alternative – still widely used – is to fall back on that discredited and outdated approach called “he said/she said” journalism. This is where the damaging content is presented as a plausible point of view, someone else is quoted as opposing it, and the public is left to figure out the truth for itself.</p>
<p>This is against the public interest. Lies and misrepresentations are not just another set of truths – what Trump’s one-time press assistant Kellyanne Conway called “alternative facts”. They corrode trust. No one knows where to turn for reliable information, and the ground is prepared for yet more conspiracy theories to take root.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214961/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The “he said/she said” reporting of yesteryear no longer serves a democratic purpose. Media must do better at calling out lies and misinformation.Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143702023-10-15T05:09:19Z2023-10-15T05:09:19ZIf there is to be any healing after the Voice referendum, it will be a long journey<p>The result of the Voice referendum on Saturday was unexceptional if considered in light of the constitutional history of this country. </p>
<p>With a “yes”/“no” split likely to be about 40/60%, the defeat was no more or less resounding than several other proposals since Federation that became buried in contention, partisanship and opportunism. The “no” side’s clean sweep of the states has also occurred before – on a quarter of all referendum votes, in fact.</p>
<p>There will now be many a post-mortem, and many a “what if?” There will be an abundance of wisdom after the event. What if Opposition Leader Peter Dutton had offered bipartisan support? What if there had been a constitutional convention? What if the government had negotiated with the opposition over the detail? What if it had released a draft bill? What if the referendum were held next year? What if “yes” had run a different campaign? What if there had not been a cost-of-living crisis? What if there had been less lying?</p>
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<p>In truth, it is hard to imagine a counterfactual scenario that would have produced a different result. Even if Dutton had said “yes”, the Nationals would still have said “no”. Even if the Liberals and Nationals had both said “yes”, other elements on the political right would have said “no”, and both parties would have split. Indigenous opinion was clearly divided, whatever the proportion on each side.</p>
<p>The “no” side – and even the odd Liberal on the “yes” side – complains to whoever will listen about process, but there is no reason to believe some other pathway would have led to a better result. Dutton never indicated what alternative formulation would have satisfied him. </p>
<p>The “yes” case will have its critics, but it was never going to be easy to craft a message with broad appeal. The more than 96% of Australians who are not Indigenous were being asked to offer a concession to the fewer than 4% that the latter do not presently have. It was never going to be easy to make that case. </p>
<p>Settler Australians have often tended to equate equality with sameness. This sentiment is what they call egalitarianism and understand as democracy. For many, to create an Indigenous Voice was to foster inequality and promote division where they believe there should be unity. The “no” case’s claim that the Voice would create disunity was likely devastating in its effects. What many “no” voters want is unity on their own terms.</p>
<p>A referendum proposal begins as the diagnosis of a problem, an argument that the Constitution – drafted in the 1890s – can be made to work better. Governments don’t go to the people with a referendum for opportunistic reasons: it’s just too difficult. So, they tend to be genuine efforts to solve a problem. To get a “yes” vote, you need to get acceptance of both the authorised diagnosis of the problem and the solution being offered.</p>
<p>What was the problem to be solved here, and how was the Voice to help solve it? The “yes” leaflet I received as I went to vote identified three things the Voice would do. “Yes” would provide Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with constitutional recognition through a Voice. It would offer the means by which advice from Indigenous people would be listened to, leading to better government decision-making. And it would get better results for First Nations people in health, education, employment and housing, leading to a better life.</p>
<p>In other words, the Voice would provide Indigenous people with formal constitutional recognition and an opportunity to speak for themselves, and it would provide practical benefits to help “close the gap”. It seems like a simple message, but it also demands that voters accept several propositions. Let us take just two of them.</p>
<p>First, do Indigenous people need a further opportunity to speak for themselves? I believe so, but “no” voters might have taken the view that there were already Indigenous members of the federal parliament able to speak for Indigenous people. </p>
<p>And if they believed as much, the prominence of two of those members on the “no” side, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Lidia Thorpe, would have done little to persuade them that a Voice was needed. Price and Warren Mundine, a former Liberal candidate for parliament, were the de facto leaders of the “no” campaign. The prominent role of a few high-profile Indigenous people was, in my view, devastating to the moral and political authority of the “yes” case.</p>
<p>Second, while there are some white Australians still prepared to deny the existence of Aboriginal disadvantage, even those who acknowledge the truth of it needed to accept that the Voice would be effective in helping to close the gap.</p>
<p>Given the long history of policy failure in this area, that was a hard argument to make. The Voice, moreover, was to be advisory – a point that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, among others, repeatedly underlined in an effort to reassure non-Indigenous voters it would do little to change the existing political arrangements. People were being asked to support something important enough to call them to the polls, at the same time as they were told it was too modest a proposal for them to need to worry over.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-should-be-listening-the-long-history-of-liberal-innovation-and-failure-on-indigenous-policy-214960">'We should be listening': the long history of Liberal innovation – and failure – on Indigenous policy</a>
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<p>The “no” result will be deeply disappointing to many Australians, and most of all to those Indigenous people who have worked patiently for years to achieve constitutional change. There will be many broken hearts. These people have had to endure some of the very worst impulses at work in this country, and some of the nastiest instincts that disfigure its public life. That, too, is unexceptional in the history of this country.</p>
<p>If there is to be any healing, it will be a long journey.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214370/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Bongiorno does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the end, the “yes” case failed to answer two basic questions: what was the problem to be solved, and how would the Voice help solve it?Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2156622023-10-14T12:31:58Z2023-10-14T12:31:58ZView from The Hill: Anthony Albanese promises to continue to ‘advance reconciliation’ despite sweeping defeat of referendum<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has pledged to continue to battle Indigenous disadvantage and promote reconciliation, in the wake of the sweeping defeat of his referendum to put a Voice in the Constitution.</p>
<p>“We intend as a government to continue to do what we can to close the gap, to do what we can to advance reconciliation, to do what we can to listen to the First Australians,” he told a late night news conference at Parliament House. </p>
<p>Flanked by an emotional Linda Burney, the Minister for Indigenous Australians, Albanese invoked Winston Churchill’s words, “Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts’.” </p>
<p>“I want to say that while tonight’s result is not one that I had hoped for, I absolutely respect the decision of the Australian people and the democratic process that has delivered it”. </p>
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<p>He said that “as prime minister I will always accept responsibility for the decisions I have taken, and I do so tonight. But I do want Australians to know that I will always be ambitious for our country, ambitious for us to be the very best version of ourselves.” </p>
<p>Opposition leader Peter Dutton said Australians in their millions had rejected “the Prime Minister’s divisive Referendum”. </p>
<p>“What matters tomorrow is that this result doesn’t divide us as a people. What matters is that we all accept the result in this great spirit of our democracy.” </p>
<p>Dutton repeated his commitment to a royal commission into child sexual abuse in Indigenous communities and an audit into spending on Indigenous programs “so we can get the money where it is needed”. </p>
<p>The referendum’s defeat was clear early after the polls closed, and the result was definitive. By 11pm the “no” vote nationally was about 59% and “no” was ahead in every state and the Northern Territory. The ACT recorded a solid “yes” vote. </p>
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<p>While the result is a major rebuff to Albanese, it is a devastating blow for the many Indigenous Australians who had invested their hopes in what was always – given the history of referendum failures – a long shot. </p>
<p>Many reacted angrily or sadly. A group of Indigenous people who supported the Voice called for “a week of silence” to “grieve the outcome” and urged that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags be lowered to half mast. </p>
<p>Megan Davis, a leader of the “yes” campaign, turned her X account black. University of Canberra chancellor Tom Calma lashed out at Dutton, questioning “how accurate he is in the information that he has provided to the Australian population”. </p>
<p>Some Aboriginal leaders said they must just press on.</p>
<p>The balance of the reaction among Indigenous people over coming days will be crucial in the extent to which the referendum’s defeat sets back reconciliation. </p>
<p>If history provided a pointer to the loss, there were a number of specific factors. Once Dutton declared in April that the Liberals would oppose the Voice being put into the Constitution, the referendum was doomed. No referendum has been carried without bipartisan support. As well, the “no” side started with an advantage because it was easier to argue a negative. The “yes” campaign was not convincing enough to counter it, especially because the detail of the Voice was to be left to parliament. </p>
<p>The Indigenous people in the Uluru Statement from the Heart insisted the Voice should be enshrined in the Constitution. That put up the highest hurdle for enacting it. </p>
<p>The more modest alternative would have been a legislated Voice, but Indigenous leaders rejected that because it could always be abolished by a hostile government, as had happened before.</p>
<p>Albanese could have gone down either of two compromise paths. He could have had a constitutional convention, seeking a bipartisan way forward (which he may or may not have been able to achieve). </p>
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<p>Alternatively, he could have argued to Indigenous leaders that he would not be able to deliver a constitutional change and attempted to persuade them to accept a legislated voice, perhaps with an undertaking of a later referendum. </p>
<p>But he had locked himself into the full Uluru statement before the election.</p>
<p>He defended his determination to run the referendum at his news conference, declaring that as “a conviction politician” he had a “duty” to put the request from Indigenous people.</p>
<p>Broad patterns of yes/no voting are notable in the result. Younger and older voters split. More highly educated and wealthier voters were more progressive. Regional and rural people went to the “no” side. No also found more favour among outer-suburban voters.</p>
<p>Most Labor seats voted “no”, including Barton, held by Burney. Western Sydney was dominated by “no”, including the seats held by ministers Chris Bowen, Tony Burke and Jason Clare. </p>
<p>There were strong “yes” votes among progressive voters in inner city seats. “Yes” was favoured in teal seats, a likely guide to the difficulty Dutton will have in regaining these seats. Not all booths in areas of high Indigenous enrolment were in by late Saturday night, but those that had been counted showed a strong “yes” vote, according to a Guardian analysis. </p>
<p>The ABC’s Antony Green pointed out that the referendum pattern resembled that of the 1999 republic referendum, with high status electorates showing support. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-failed-referendum-is-a-political-disaster-but-opportunity-exists-for-those-brave-and-willing-to-embrace-it-213755">The failed referendum is a political disaster, but opportunity exists for those brave and willing to embrace it</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The result was definitive, a major rebuff for Anthony Albanese and, more important, for the many Indigenous Australians who had put their hopes in what was always a long shot.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.