tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/policymaking-10186/articlesPolicymaking – The Conversation2024-01-17T13:37:02Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2155722024-01-17T13:37:02Z2024-01-17T13:37:02ZConnecting researchers and legislators can lead to policies that reflect scientific evidence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569604/original/file-20240116-21-149ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C104%2C1919%2C1455&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Legislators make policy based on the information at hand, which isn't always the latest scientific findings.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/scenes-from-the-halls-of-the-state-house-as-senators-head-news-photo/1370192889">Stuart Cahill/Boston Herald via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Like most kids of the 1990s, I attended a school that used the original DARE program as a cornerstone initiative in the war on drugs. Congressional funding for this Drug Abuse Resistance Education program surged to over <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/12/a-brief-history-of-d-a-r-e-the-anti-drug-program-jeff-sessions-wants-to-revive/">US$10 million</a> per year by 2002, <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.94.6.1027">despite studies</a> published in the prior decade demonstrating the original program was ineffective at preventing substance use. Following mounting political pressure and declining government investments, the DARE program was retooled.</p>
<p>This scenario exemplifies how a disconnect between research-based information and decision-making can lead to ineffective policies. It also illustrates why scientists often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1258/jrsm.2011.110180">bemoan that it can take over a decade</a> before their work achieves its intended public benefit. </p>
<p>Researchers want the results of their studies to have an impact in the real world. Policymakers want to make effective policies that serve the people. The public wants to benefit from tax-funded research.</p>
<p>But there’s a disconnect between the world of science and the world of policy decision-making that keeps information from flowing freely between them. There are hundreds of <a href="https://evidence2impact.psu.edu/what-we-do/research-translation-platform/results-first-resources/clearing-house-database/">evidence-based programs</a> that receive minimal public investment despite their promise to curb social ills and save taxpayer dollars.</p>
<p>At the <a href="https://evidence2impact.psu.edu/what-we-do/research-translation-platform/">Penn State Research Translation Platform</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=61NeK5gAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I work</a> with a team that studies policymakers’ use of research evidence. Legislators and other decision-makers tend to prioritize certain solutions over others, largely based on the kinds of advice and input they receive from trusted sources. My team is developing ways to connect policymakers with university-based researchers – and studying what happens when these academics become the trusted sources, rather than those with special interests who stand to gain financially from various initiatives. </p>
<h2>Forging researcher-policymaker relationships</h2>
<p>Our Research Translation Platform team has found that policymakers assess in different ways how credible someone is. They generally consider <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Evidence-Based-Policymaking-Envisioning-a-New-Era-of-Theory-Research/Bogenschneider-Corbett/p/book/9780367523855">university-based researchers to be more reliable and impartial</a> than special interest groups, lobbyists and think tanks. Academic researchers can be key <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-political-donations-reflect-polarization-in-academia-with-implications-for-the-publics-trust-in-science-196691">trusted messengers</a>, and their information is most credible when it’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-at-risk-if-scientists-dont-think-strategically-before-talking-politics-63797">not advocating particular political agendas</a>.</p>
<p>But scientists and lawmakers don’t usually have each other on speed dial. Building these connections is a promising way to improve policymakers’ access to credible, high-quality information. </p>
<p>Drawing on these principles, I co-developed a service that matches state and federal legislators with researchers who share their interests. Called the <a href="https://trestlelink.org/models/research-to-policy-collaboration/">Research-to-Policy Collaboration</a>, it involves a series of steps that starts with identifying policymakers’ existing priorities – for instance, addressing the opioid crisis. Then we identify and match them with researchers who work on studies relevant to substance use. The ultimate goal is to facilitate the meetings and follow-through that are critical for developing mutually beneficial partnerships between politicians and scientists.</p>
<p>Working closely with prevention scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=IEjjoBAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Max Crowley</a>, we designed the first experiment of its kind to measure whether our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012955118">model was useful for congressional staffers</a>. We found that legislators we randomly assigned to receive researchers’ support introduced 23% more bills that reference research evidence. Their staffers reported placing a greater value on using research to understand problems compared with staffers who were not matched with a researcher.</p>
<p>This experiment showed that researcher-policymaker partnerships can be effective not only for bridging research and policy, but legislators and their staff may find value in the service for honing empirical evidence pertaining to their bills. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569608/original/file-20240116-27-bebp9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="seated state legislators face an audience at a public hearing in an auditorium" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569608/original/file-20240116-27-bebp9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569608/original/file-20240116-27-bebp9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569608/original/file-20240116-27-bebp9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569608/original/file-20240116-27-bebp9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569608/original/file-20240116-27-bebp9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569608/original/file-20240116-27-bebp9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569608/original/file-20240116-27-bebp9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">State legislators tend to hear from many different stakeholders as they design policy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/boston-ma-the-joint-committee-on-public-health-hears-news-photo/1557184909">Pat Greenhouse/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Getting research into the hands of policymakers</h2>
<p>While research-policy partnerships can be effective, they’re also time-consuming.</p>
<p>When the world was turned upside down by the COVID-19 pandemic, routine handshakes disintegrated into social distancing. As a flurry of congressional activity tried to triage the catastrophe, pandemic conditions provided an opportunity to experiment with a way for researchers to communicate directly with policymakers online. </p>
<p>Our team created what we call the <a href="https://trestlelink.org/models/scope/">sciComm Optimizer for Policy Engagement</a>, or SCOPE for short. It’s a service that directly connects lawmakers with researchers who study timely policy issues. The researchers author a fact sheet in their area of study by summarizing a body of research pertaining to a national policy issue.</p>
<p>Then the SCOPE team sends an email on their behalf to lawmakers and staffers assigned to relevant committees. The email invites an opportunity to connect further. This effort is more interpersonal than a newsletter, providing a direct connection with a trustworthy source of science-based information. </p>
<p>As part of this <a href="https://research2policy.org/category/covid-19/">effort, scholars produced</a> over 65 fact sheets as well as several virtual panels and briefings relevant to various policy domains during the pandemic, such as substance use, violence and child maltreatment. These were disseminated over the course of a year and typically prompted about two researcher-policymaker meetings each. </p>
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<p>To investigate the value of this service, we looked at the language that state lawmakers used in social media posts pertaining to COVID-19. We found that those we had randomly assigned to receive our SCOPE emails produced <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13012-023-01268-1">24% more social media posts</a> referencing research than those we didn’t contact. We particularly noticed increased use of technical language related to data and analytics, as well as more language pertaining to research concepts, such as risk factors and disparities.</p>
<p>Legislators receiving SCOPE material also used less language related to generating more or new knowledge, which suggests they were less likely to call for more studies to produce new evidence. Perhaps their access to evidence decreased their need for more.</p>
<h2>Capitalizing on timely and relevant research</h2>
<p>These studies show some promising ways to connect legislators with timely and relevant research, and how doing so might improve the impact of research translation.</p>
<p>More work is needed to study other types of science policy efforts. Most research translation initiatives have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1332/174426421X16420918447616">very little data for evaluating their impact</a>.</p>
<p>It’s also worth considering the possibility that some efforts may unintentionally damage these political relationships and the credibility of scientific institutions. For instance, partisan efforts <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-march-for-science-participants-advocate-without-losing-the-publics-trust-76205">advancing specific political agendas</a> are apt to reduce the <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-political-donations-reflect-polarization-in-academia-with-implications-for-the-publics-trust-in-science-196691">perceived credibility of academic scientists</a>.</p>
<p>And if educational outreach merely preaches science in the absence of interpersonal connections, scholars not only risk perpetuating the out-of-touch, eggheaded stereotype of academia, they risk squandering resources on ineffective programs, similar to the original DARE program. </p>
<p>The bridge between science and policy is a two-way street. Not only must the parties meet in the middle, but science policy and communication practice should be held to the same rigorous standards we expect in evidence-based policymaking. The world needs solutions to innumerable real-time crises. How to forge these connections is a critical area of study in itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215572/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Taylor Scott has received funding from the William T. Grant Foundation, National Science Foundation's Science of Science Program, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, and Penn State's Social Science Research Institute and the Huck Institutes at Penn State. She directs the Research Translation Platform in Penn State's Evidence-to-Impact Collaborative and serves on the boards of TrestleLink and the National Prevention Science Coalition. </span></em></p>Researchers want real-world impact. Lawmakers want programs that work. The public wants to benefit from taxpayer-funded research. Building a bridge from academia to legislatures is key to all three.Taylor Scott, Associate Research Professor of Human Development and Family Studies and Director of the Research Translation Platform, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2051222023-05-11T02:44:37Z2023-05-11T02:44:37ZTo get to net zero, policymakers need to listen to communities. Here’s what they can learn from places like Geelong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525268/original/file-20230510-25-phza6d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3065%2C2028&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sally Fisher</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While the federal government was <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-net-zero-authority">announcing</a> its flagship Net Zero Authority, in the Victorian city of Geelong hundreds of people – including community groups, unions, faith organisations and business representatives – were preparing an announcement of their own this week. </p>
<p>Over the past six months Geelong has hosted one of Australia’s largest ever local “listening campaigns” relating to the climate transition. It’s part of the University of Sydney’s <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/our-research/real-deal.html">Real Deal for Australia project</a>. The aim is to give local communities a real say in the changes they’re facing.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/content/dam/corporate/documents/sydney-policy-lab/our-research/geelong_report.pdf">report</a> on actions to be taken, based on community feedback, was launched on May 10. </p>
<p>So what can this policymaking experiment teach the Net Zero Authority about how to plan Australia’s climate transition?</p>
<p>One clear message is that housing and its role in this transition is an overwhelming concern. Housing quality and security, cost of living and climate change are all linked by the impacts of extreme weather, energy costs and emissions, and unequal access to solar power. Job security is similarly entwined with climate policy. </p>
<p>But if climate is presented as a separate issue disconnected from these other sources of stress in daily life, people withdraw and see action on climate as too much to bear.</p>
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<h2>Transition works best as a cooperative process</h2>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="View of oil refinery looking across the city of Geelong" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525270/original/file-20230510-21-w9n5kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The climate transition to clean energy is just the latest transition for Geelong.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/83983538@N07/7913248230">HxChester/Flickr</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The idea of transition is not new to Geelong. The Pyramid Building Society collapse in 1990 and the closures of the Ford factory and Alcoa aluminium smelter in the 2010s brought about big changes. For many, those transitions were done “to” Geelong not “with” Geelong. </p>
<p>Climate change is bringing another transition. How can we ensure people are not left behind this time? </p>
<p><a href="https://thepolicymaker.jmi.org.au/who-will-lead-us-to-policy-salvation/">Community-led research</a> is an approach that has gained currency in recent decades. The term covers a wide range of methods, all based on the principle that communities should be at the centre of any research or policy process that is about them. As an <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06855-7">editorial</a> in the journal Nature has said: </p>
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<p>Knowledge generated in partnership with the public and policymakers is more likely to be useful to society.</p>
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<p>Rather than treating people as the subjects of policy, this approach involves communities in designing policy. It asks everyday people to guide the research process. They shape the questions asked, the methods of engagement, the analysis of data and the creation of research and policy outcomes.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-know-our-community-better-than-they-do-why-local-knowledge-is-key-to-disaster-recovery-in-gippsland-158703">'We know our community better than they do': why local knowledge is key to disaster recovery in Gippsland</a>
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<h2>How does the Real Deal approach work?</h2>
<p>The Sydney Policy Lab began the <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/our-research/real-deal.html">Real Deal for Australia project</a> in 2019, following a period of divisive, polarised climate politics in Australia. </p>
<p>It aims to test whether community-driven policy solutions can provide an alternative strategy amid the uncertainties of the climate crisis. Real Deal projects have also begun in Western Sydney and the Queensland port city of Gladstone.</p>
<p>In the Real Deal approach, “relationships must precede action”. In practice, this process has involved building a network of national climate groups, unions and community organisations. Together, they have produced a distinctive approach to community-led research, outlined in a 2020 <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/content/dam/corporate/documents/sydney-policy-lab/a-real-deal-2020.pdf">Real Deal Report</a>. </p>
<p>Between September 2022 and March 2023, the Real Deal for Geelong team conducted 38 “table talks”. These small-group conversations were held in church halls, community centres, union meeting rooms and even a local pub. Achieving this level of participation wasn’t easy.</p>
<p>It makes time for communities to set the agenda and shape solutions that respond to their needs. In a world focused on quick outcomes, some Geelong leaders were sceptical about a drawn-out listening process. Engagement was complicated by post-lockdown exhaustion and interrupted by the Victorian state election and school holidays. </p>
<p>Despite the challenges, the power of this research involving 238 residents lay in how it was done. Local community members, supported by a team of researchers, led the process. It was unlike traditional “consultation” where so-called experts present pre-packaged policy solutions. </p>
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<img alt="Small discussion groups of people sitting at tables" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525269/original/file-20230510-31-pw3c04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Participants in one of 38 ‘table talks’ held in Geelong, February 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mik Aidt</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>So what are the findings from Geelong?</h2>
<p>The listening process found the path to net zero requires more than just creating new industries and new jobs. In Geelong, the biggest issue was anxiety about housing – 92% of participants mentioned it. </p>
<p>Housing was closely connected to climate. Poor housing stock, especially rental homes, was unable to handle increasingly erratic weather. There were stories of flooded homes after extreme weather events. The issue of mould alone was raised in 20% of the table talks. A participant from a local community service said: </p>
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<p>In our organisation we have reports of substandard rental properties that experience leaks during extreme weather events and sewage coming up through plumbing as stormwater systems fail in older areas.</p>
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<p>Housing is linked to both cost of living and climate change. For instance, people in rental homes couldn’t access cheaper, low-emissions electricity through rooftop solar systems. </p>
<p>Participants talked about a two-tier system: the wealthy could protect themselves with better homes, retrofitting and solar; the less well-off could not (as Tuesday’s federal <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/09/australia-federal-budget-2023-climate-environment-energy-saving-measures-households-double-glazing-solar-panels-hydrogen">budget recognised</a>).</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/budgets-energy-bill-relief-and-home-retrofit-funding-is-a-good-start-but-dwarfed-by-the-scale-of-the-task-205380">Budget's energy bill relief and home retrofit funding is a good start, but dwarfed by the scale of the task</a>
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<p>The listening process also unearthed the importance of good housing as a source of security in a time of uncertainty. As the climate changes, insecure, expensive, inaccessible, poor-quality housing adds to people’s fear and instability. </p>
<p>In addition to housing, jobs, cost of living and quality care services were seen as vital in the transition to net zero. </p>
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<h2>How policy is made matters</h2>
<p>The findings offer a very useful lesson for the Net Zero Authority. When planning for climate transition was connected to the other daily pressures people face, participants felt more certain of their agency. They became more convinced transformative change was possible.</p>
<p>As Australia steps up its investment in the transition, Geelong’s experience shows it matters how policy is made. When communities have a role in shaping the course of change, climate action can reduce the stresses in their lives instead of adding to them. </p>
<p>Geelong has shown that local and regional community-led approaches can be a powerful way to produce more holistic, just and popular transition policies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Tattersall receives funding from Lord Mayors Charitable Foundation.</span></em></p>When people are involved in planning for climate transition that takes account of their other daily concerns, such as housing and jobs, they become more positive about transformative change.Amanda Tattersall, Research Lead Sydney Policy Lab, Postdoctoral Fellow Geography, Host of ChangeMakers Podcast, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1938862022-11-14T07:04:49Z2022-11-14T07:04:49ZPolitics urgently needs more imagination. Competence alone will not save us from this ‘polycrisis’<p>The recent turmoil in British politics has led much of the political establishment and commentariat to agree on one thing: what the country needs now is competence, the more boring the better. The last thing we need is risky ideas.</p>
<p>After the erratic administrations of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, this is understandable. But it risks misreading both the needs of the times and the lessons of history. Profound crises demand leaders who are also imaginative and agile. Competence alone rarely turns out to be enough.</p>
<p>That imagination is now often seen as an alternative to competence, rather than its complement, shows what a serious state British politics is in – as the combined costs of austerity, stagnant productivity, Brexit, weakened public institutions and a diminished standing in the world become ever more apparent.</p>
<p>So serious are these problems, they have prompted one of British politics’ rare sea-changes, with <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/">Labour well ahead in the polls</a> after the arrival of yet another Conservative prime minister. But although it’s clear the country needs a period of rebuilding after the mistakes of recent years, it’s much less clear where the necessary long-term ideas, strategies and plans will come from.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494146/original/file-20221108-12-xrc5u6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="UK poll of polls tracker for past 12 months" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494146/original/file-20221108-12-xrc5u6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494146/original/file-20221108-12-xrc5u6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494146/original/file-20221108-12-xrc5u6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494146/original/file-20221108-12-xrc5u6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494146/original/file-20221108-12-xrc5u6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494146/original/file-20221108-12-xrc5u6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494146/original/file-20221108-12-xrc5u6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">UK national parliament voting intentions over the past 12 months.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/">Politico</a></span>
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<p>Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s reputation for competence <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/87eb9e84-c20f-4312-8862-9b3a0bc173fc">may be overrated</a> as a result of comparisons with his short-term predecessor Truss. Few would describe Sunak as a visionary and one policy he is closely associated with – subsidies to <a href="https://theconversation.com/eat-out-to-help-out-crowded-restaurants-may-have-driven-uk-coronavirus-spike-new-findings-145945">eat out with other unvaccinated people</a> in the summer of 2020 – now looks rather daft.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Labour leader Keir Starmer has promised that under him, “Britain will get its future back”. But he has said little about his vision or longer-term plans for the country, and there is none of the buzz of earlier periods in his party’s history when it pioneered everything from the NHS and Open University to equality laws and constitutional reform.</p>
<p>I believe this shrinking of ambition may be a local symptom of a much bigger problem in global politics, particularly in the west, which needs addressing alongside the immediate pressures of sky-rocketing energy bills and living costs.</p>
<p>The gravity of our current “polycrisis”, spanning war, climate and health as well as finance, obscures a less obvious and visible crisis – of our collective imagination.</p>
<h2>A deficit of options</h2>
<p>These days, we are good at envisioning future ecological disasters or technological threats. Yet much more than our predecessors 50, 100 or 200 years ago, we struggle to picture or describe how our society could be significantly better a generation from now.</p>
<p>Just ask your friends. Unless they are quite unusual, they will find it much easier to imagine dystopias than utopias, things getting worse rather than getting better. They may be able to paint a picture of a future world full of drones, robots and AI, but will find it much harder to describe what elderly care might look like when they are 90, or a day in the life of the House of Commons a generation from now.</p>
<p>This shrunken view of the future makes our times different from previous eras, whether the 1960s or 1940s, or much of the 19th century, when many had a strong sense of how their societies could get better, fuelled by everything from utopian literature to social movements.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>This story is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> and is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects to tackle societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
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<p>Today’s imagination gap has been very evident in the US amid the (now diminishing) prospect of another presidential election between a septuagenarian and an octogenarian in 2024. But it’s also a long time since we’ve heard a British party leader speak convincingly about what our country might be like even ten years from now, let alone 20 or 30 years ahead.</p>
<p>Some of the blame for this lies with the main parties. Where once they had large research teams working on future options – for example, under <a href="https://www.alistairlexden.org.uk/sites/www.alistairlexden.org.uk/files/2019-07/Preparing%20for%20Government.pdf">Chris Patten for the Tories</a> in the 1970s or <a href="https://reviews.history.ac.uk/review/2442">Michael Young</a> for Labour in the 1940s – now their staff appear to concentrate mainly on campaigning and tactics.</p>
<p>Some of the blame lies with UK universities, which have largely given up the job of designing radical options and what I call “<a href="https://thenew.institute/en/media/the-case-for-exploratory-social-sciences">exploratory social sciences</a>” – focusing instead on analysis of the present and past, or reviving old ideas. Here there is a stark contrast with the sciences, from genomics to AI, where speculative design is <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1020402/National_AI_Strategy_-_PDF_version.pdf">enthusiastically encouraged</a>.</p>
<p>And some of the blame lies with our media, which tends to live in an eternal present – with extraordinary attention paid to daily Westminster intrigues but far less to longer-term patterns. Social media, in particular, strips away the depth both of historical perspectives and possible pathways to the future in favour of a feverish present.</p>
<p>The net result is a gap where imagination should be. It means that at a time of intensifying crises, we have a deficit of options. This fuels the pessimism of large majorities of people in many countries, who now expect life to be worse for their children than it was for them.</p>
<h2>‘Shrinking the future’</h2>
<p>Today’s polycrisis is very much a material crisis involving viruses, war, energy and food. But it is also, in some respects, a psychological crisis. <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2102061118">Fascinating recent research</a> surveying the patterns of sentiment in all books published in English, German and Spanish over the last 150 years (as gathered on Google) identifies symptoms of a collective depression in recent decades on a scale greater than during the world wars.</p>
<p>The Indiana University authors write of an upsurge of “cognitive distortions” since around 2000, leading them to comment that “large populations are increasingly stressed by pervasive cultural, economic and social changes” linked with “the rising prevalence of depression and anxiety in recent decades”. The research concludes that “catastrophising” ways of thinking have risen sharply, as utopias have been displaced by dystopias in our collective mind.</p>
<p>This “shrinking of the future” has had an obvious political effect. It has fuelled what German sociologist Andreas Reckwitz <a href="http://asapoliticalsoc.org/the-end-of-illusions-politics-economy-and-culture-in-late-modernity/">describes</a> as the switch from positive politics, which emphasises the openness and possibilities of the future, to a negative version which is defensive, sceptical and nostalgic, convinced that the best years lie in the past.</p>
<p>Donald Trump’s promise to make America great again; Giorgia Meloni’s invocation of traditions of family, God and nation in Italy; Jair Bolsonaro’s nostalgia for the days of military rule which was <a href="https://theconversation.com/bolsonaros-first-round-election-bounce-back-reminds-us-why-populist-leaders-are-so-popular-191718">almost enough to get him reelected</a> – all are examples of playing to a large part of the public homesick for the past.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/militant-optimism-a-state-of-mind-that-can-help-us-find-hope-in-dark-times-141165">Militant optimism: a state of mind that can help us find hope in dark times</a>
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<p>Even leaders who (some of the time) promise a bright new future increasingly link this to stories of national exceptionalism, whether in the form of Narendra Modi’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/indias-prime-minister-modi-pursues-politics-of-hindu-nationalism-what-does-that-mean-117794">Hindutva ideology</a> or Xi Jinping’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-echoes-of-authoritarian-past-as-xi-jinping-cements-his-place-at-the-heart-of-a-communist-party-now-entirely-built-around-him-193122">increasingly strident nationalism</a>. One fascinating symptom is that most of the Chinese Politburo’s recent monthly study sessions (yes, they do have them) have apparently focused on Chinese history and its lessons.</p>
<p>The result of these trends is to narrow down what could be possible – our options for the decades ahead. I often hear people say there is no shortage of ideas out there, and this is partly true. But if you work with mayors or governments around the world, you quickly discover that these ideas are often only half-formed, not yet ready to be put into practice at any scale.</p>
<p>It’s not hard to see, broadly, what transitions are required to a zero carbon economy amid an ageing society in a world full of powerful technologies. Yet there’s a surprising lack of good ideas on exactly what needs to be done in practice. For example, much has been done on the priorities for cutting carbon, but the detail of how to implement these sector by sector, how to sell them politically and how to sequence them is much harder.</p>
<p>Adam Price, leader of Wales’s nationalist political party Plaid Cymru, recently <a href="https://wiserd.ac.uk/news/sbarcspark-launch-celebrates-innovation/">described</a> this as “the tenth chapter problem”, pointing to many of the books he had read that offered brilliant diagnoses of what is wrong with our economy or society in their first nine chapters, only to present answers and prescriptions that are bland and unconvincing in the final one.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494160/original/file-20221108-18-ki7bin.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People standing over a patient in a hospital bed" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494160/original/file-20221108-18-ki7bin.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494160/original/file-20221108-18-ki7bin.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494160/original/file-20221108-18-ki7bin.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494160/original/file-20221108-18-ki7bin.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494160/original/file-20221108-18-ki7bin.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494160/original/file-20221108-18-ki7bin.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494160/original/file-20221108-18-ki7bin.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Labour’s health minister Nye Bevan on the first day of the NHS, July 5 1948.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Anenurin_Bevan,_Minister_of_Health,_on_the_first_day_of_the_National_Health_Service,_5_July_1948_at_Park_Hospital,_Davyhulme,_near_Manchester_(14465908720).jpg">University of Liverpool Faculty of Health & Life Sciences</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<h2>Widening the possibility space</h2>
<p>Whether there are options is, in part, a matter of choice – of whether societies have invested in the hard graft of preparing themselves for possible futures. For example, the preparatory work done over many decades on a universal health service expanded the UK’s possibility space, making it much easier to <a href="https://www.nursingtimes.net/archive/the-birth-of-the-nhs-july-5th-1948-08-01-2008/">create the NHS</a> once the political conditions were right in the 1940s.</p>
<p>More recently, decades of work on <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-a-sustainable-circular-economy-would-look-like-133808">how a circular economy might work</a> has made it at least possible that we might retreat from fast fashion or the mountains of e-waste that are such an ugly side of contemporary consumer capitalism.</p>
<p>Social scientists throughout history have believed they had a duty to widen this space. For some of the greatest, from Adam Smith to Karl Marx, diagnosis and prescription were tightly interwoven. Marx’s tomb in Highgate Cemetery in London is inscribed with this famous comment:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The philosophers have only interpreted the world in various ways. The point, however, is to change it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Yet now such “possibility thinking” has faded from prominence.</p>
<p>Search out well-informed proposals for how welfare, democracy and taxation could be organised a generation or two from now and you’ll find surprisingly little. And on the rare occasions that mainstream media – including the BBC – turn to the future, they tend to call on elderly establishment figures to share their wisdom, rather than listening to the pioneers of novel ideas.</p>
<p>Few of today’s social scientists would share the view of HG Wells a century ago that “sociology is the description of the Ideal Society and its relation to existing societies”. There are some exceptions, such as the attempts to <a href="https://deeptransitions.net/">map out pathways of societal transformation</a> that are prominent in the Netherlands and Scandinavia. But this kind of work has become harder and it’s not encouraged by the main funders of social science research, who in my experience tend to be nervous of novel ideas or supporting speculative work that goes beyond incremental change.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/futurology-how-a-group-of-visionaries-looked-beyond-the-possible-a-century-ago-and-predicted-todays-world-118134">Futurology: how a group of visionaries looked beyond the possible a century ago and predicted today's world</a>
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<p>Healthy pressures to attend to hard data and evidence have had the unintended consequence of squeezing out attention to the future since, by definition, evidence and data refer to the past and present. Similarly, a well-intentioned focus on research impact has encouraged incremental work on policy – how to tweak a little here or there, ideally aligned with the interests of the government of the day – while discouraging the serious work of long-term policy design. A brilliant idea that will flourish in 30 years time won’t show up in the <a href="https://www.ref.ac.uk/about-the-ref/what-is-the-ref/">Research Excellence Framework</a> (Ref), which is now the main way UK academics are assessed.</p>
<p>An equally healthy commitment to rigour in higher education has made it hard, or even career threatening, to be too creative, since any genuinely new idea risks sounding flaky, vague or half-baked (as any radical idea will be in its infancy). This is one reason why the most prominent public intellectuals prefer to revive ideas from half a century ago rather than proposing new ones.</p>
<p>The reliance on peer review as a near-universal assessment method for academic publication globally also discourages the boldest, most speculative thinking – favouring safe proposals over more radical ones that tend to get a mix of very high and very low scores. As a result, many of the brightest academics opt either for analytical work or for the safer space of commentary and critique, and steer clear of the riskier space of saying what they think should be done.</p>
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<h2>How crisis can accelerate change</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Milton-Friedman">Milton Friedman</a> – not everyone’s favourite economist – argued why this reluctance to generate bold new ideas matters as well as anyone. In the 1982 preface to his book <a href="http://pombo.free.fr/friedman2002.pdf">Capitalism and Freedom</a>, Friedman writes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies [and] to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Whether or not you agree with a single other word penned by Friedman, he was surely right about this. Our problem now, as we face an accumulation of crises, is that we don’t have enough of those options available, enough ideas ready to make the transition from impossible to inevitable.</p>
<p>Crises can be powerful accelerators of change. Indeed, one definition of leadership is the ability to use the smallest crisis for the largest effect. The <a href="https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/publications/covid-decade-understanding-the-long-term-societal-impacts-of-covid-19/">COVID pandemic</a> has pointed to how we might remake the economy with less travel and revived neighbourhoods. Through furlough, it opened up new thinking about welfare. It also boosted attention for issues such as mental health.</p>
<p>The pandemic could have prompted serious debate about pay too, since key workers were often paid the least while non-essential workers earned far more. In the US, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2021/02/05/essential-workers-deserve-minimum-wage-increase/">47% of the lowest paid were deemed essential workers</a> – a far higher percentage than among the highest paid. In retrospect, it’s remarkable how little our politicians used the pandemic as a springboard for change. In this sense, the COVID crisis looks like a wasted opportunity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protester with sign in march" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494173/original/file-20221108-15-8nelih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494173/original/file-20221108-15-8nelih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494173/original/file-20221108-15-8nelih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494173/original/file-20221108-15-8nelih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494173/original/file-20221108-15-8nelih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494173/original/file-20221108-15-8nelih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494173/original/file-20221108-15-8nelih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The pandemic could have prompted a serious debate about pay in our society.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-july-30-2021-nhs-2016915395">Thomas Eddy/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Not all politics is short-termist, however. I work with several Scandinavian governments that take quite a long view, helped by relatively consensual politics and a system that encourages collaboration. Many non-democracies around the world also remain quite good at thinking and acting over decades rather than months and years (but not always for the better).</p>
<p>In the US, by contrast, the dramatic shifts from one regime to another make long-term policymaking very hard. The only thing US politicians can often agree on is massive spending – one luxury of having the dollar as a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency">reserve currency</a>.</p>
<p>The UK is prone to similar short-termism. But one counter-example that I worked on 20 years ago stands up reasonably well to scrutiny and shows what’s needed now. Various UK government departments, as well as the No 10 strategy unit I was running at the time, prepared long-term plans for energy and renewables generation and use as part of a roadmap to radically reduce carbon emissions. Later governments roughly stuck to what was proposed, and cross-party mechanisms were put in place to monitor actions and results.</p>
<p>Since then, the UK has cut its emissions by 40-50% even if you include imports – far more than most people expected. We have shifted to an energy system with a <a href="https://www.nationalgrideso.com/electricity-explained/electricity-and-me/great-britains-monthly-electricity-stats">big percentage of renewables</a> (usually around 40%), again much more than was expected.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-target-to-cut-emissions-78-by-2035-is-world-leading-but-to-hit-it-action-is-needed-now-159398">UK target to cut emissions 78% by 2035 is world-leading – but to hit it, action is needed now</a>
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<p>There are comparable examples from the social field. Major societal challenges like <a href="https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/teenage-pregnancy#background">teenage pregnancy</a> have been dramatically reduced, just as the last Labour government <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/articles/labours-record-poverty-and-inequality">dramatically reduced</a> child poverty and youth unemployment and, for a time, sharply cut <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2018/11/new-labour-all-eliminated-rough-sleeping-how-did-it-do-it">street homelessness</a> too.</p>
<p>Yet even activists can be unaware of these facts, and so drift into an unrealistic fatalism – an assumption that nothing really works. A <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Trends-in-Atmospheric-CO-2-vs-Global-Temperature-Change_fig1_360069280">much-circulated picture</a> shows CO₂ emissions relentlessly rising while documenting the various summits that came and went: Kyoto, Copenhagen and Paris. The facts here are not in doubt. But by not showing the <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/roads-decoupling-21-countries-are-reducing-carbon-emissions-while-growing-gdp">significant number of countries</a> which did sharply reduce their emissions, the picture gives a misleading account, and one that is as likely to spur a resigned shrug of the shoulders as a leap into action.</p>
<h2>Conditions for more imaginative policymaking</h2>
<p>Having worked with many strategy units around the world, including those of Australia, Singapore and the European Commission as well as the UK, I can offer some common threads about what conditions encourage more imaginative (and effective) policymaking.</p>
<p>First, to have a sense of vision and direction, it helps to know what you care about.</p>
<p>Rather obviously, it’s then important to gather evidence on what worked or didn’t work in the past. This won’t always be reliable, not least because the world changes. But you have to be very sure of your ground to <a href="https://theconversation.com/plunging-pound-and-crumbling-confidence-how-the-new-uk-government-stumbled-into-a-political-and-financial-crisis-of-its-own-making-191903">go against strong bodies of evidence</a>, as Truss and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, did in September 2022.</p>
<p>The optimal teams for doing long-term strategic work are diverse – in background, mindset and experience – and should ideally always involve people with frontline experience. The teams who were briefly at the top in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/05/team-truss-10-key-people-in-pms-inner-circle">Truss government</a> were almost the opposite: ideologically close-knit and inexperienced with backgrounds in PR and lobbying. Labour faces a parallel problem, with little direct experience of business or technology among their MPs and advisers.</p>
<p>Another lesson is to experiment. Nothing works in practice as it works on paper or on a screen. So wise governments try things out if they can, ideally on a small scale and fast. When Franklin D Roosevelt was elected at the height of the Great Depression in 1933, he promised <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1934/02/the-roosevelt-experiment/307116/">lots of experiments</a> and said from the start that some would fail, but that not to experiment would be a dereliction of duty. Roosevelt, of course, was re-elected a further three times.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494177/original/file-20221108-24-w9zyay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man reading large book" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494177/original/file-20221108-24-w9zyay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494177/original/file-20221108-24-w9zyay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494177/original/file-20221108-24-w9zyay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494177/original/file-20221108-24-w9zyay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494177/original/file-20221108-24-w9zyay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494177/original/file-20221108-24-w9zyay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494177/original/file-20221108-24-w9zyay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Franklin D Roosevelt promised much experimentation as US president.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Franklin_D._Roosevelt_in_Hyde_Park,_New_York_-_NARA_-_196562.jpg">National Archives & Records</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The dozens of <a href="https://covidandsociety.com/basic-income-review-policy-design/">universal basic income experiments</a> underway around the world and the experiments of the UK’s <a href="https://www.bi.team/about-us/who-we-are/?gclid=CjwKCAjwh4ObBhAzEiwAHzZYU_YWmalxRJn8x7WpnJpuYVDulSCCFsKvfjiM-25wpMGn-2HIhTQUFRoCAXgQAvD_BwE">Behavioural Insights Team</a> are good examples of the same approach now.</p>
<p>In the early 2010s the Conservatives embraced this experimental approach, which chimes with their traditional scepticism of big government, “top-down” plans. But since David Cameron’s time, they have largely reverted to government by speech and press release – perhaps a symptom of collapsing time horizons. If you may not survive to the end of the year, you are unlikely to start experiments that may take a couple of years to generate usable findings.</p>
<p>In contrast, some governments have deliberately encouraged imagination. The UK in the 1940s was full of commissions trying to think ahead to the post-war world of health, education, welfare and town planning.</p>
<p>Often, prime ministers from both sides encouraged a hinterland of more expansive thought because it opened up new spaces they could move into. The Thatcherites used their sometimes-crazy thinktanks to expand the boundaries of the possible. Tony Blair encouraged a network of thinktanks and gatherings, including regular meetings of progressive leaders such as Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva, Helen Clark, Gerd Schröder and Bill Clinton, and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-art-of-public-strategy-9780199593453?cc=gb&lang=en&">futures work</a> within Whitehall which fed into five- and ten-year strategies. Cameron engaged with ideas from environmentalism, behavioural science and the science of happiness.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/technology-will-not-save-us-from-climate-change-but-imagining-new-forms-of-society-will-124364">Technology will not save us from climate change – but imagining new forms of society will</a>
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<p>Elsewhere in the world, leaders such as Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have invested a lot of time in keeping up to speed with emerging ideas. Singapore even has a <a href="https://www.csf.gov.sg/who-we-are/">Centre for Strategic Futures</a> in the prime minister’s office to institutionalise this kind of horizon scanning. All understood social theorist <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/weber/">Max Weber</a>’s famous comment that, although material interests “may drive the trains down the tracks … ideas are the switchmen”.</p>
<p>In the UK over the last decade, however, there has been much less enthusiasm or intellectual confidence among its big political parties. Some attribute this to lack of curiosity in the cases of Theresa May as well as Johnson and Truss. Others argue that backgrounds in law may explain why London’s Labour mayor, Sadiq Khan, and Starmer appear so uninterested in ideas or the future.</p>
<p>There are many methods that they, and their successors, could be using to expand their policymaking options. <a href="https://www.nesta.org.uk/report/our-futures-people-people/">Foresight exercises and scenarios</a> help to map out what might happen in the future – for example, to the shape of cities. Games, thought experiments and mass participatory exercises can all open up new options.</p>
<p>In my <a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/another-world-is-possible/">new book</a>, I show how to rethink anything from the design of public libraries to benefit systems, public health schemes to parks, democracy to food – using methods I call “extension”, “inversion” and “grafting” to generate new options.</p>
<p>Extension simply means extending some aspect (like keeping libraries open longer, or extending the idea of human rights to a new field); inversion means inverting roles, for example, as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grameen_Bank">Grameen Bank</a> turned farmers into bankers or the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/case-studies/the-expert-patients-programme">Expert Patients Programme</a> turned patients into sources of knowledge; while grafting means taking an idea from a very different field, as the idea of the jury was grafted on to democracy in the form of <a href="https://involve.org.uk/resources/methods/citizens-jury">citizens’ juries</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-possible-for-everyone-to-live-a-good-life-within-our-planets-limits-91421">Is it possible for everyone to live a good life within our planet’s limits?</a>
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</em>
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<p>These approaches can then contribute to bigger-picture alternatives. What would a truly zero-carbon economy look like in terms of skills, regulations and taxes? What would a radically transformed care system be like? How could cities work in an age of driverless cars, micromobility and greatly increased cycling and walking?</p>
<p>Often there are harbingers of the future in the present, so another place to look for imaginative ideas is in everyday life. Witness the extraordinary vitality of <a href="https://atlasofthefuture.org/#map-container">social innovation movements</a> from food to ethics, the work underway to apply <a href="https://doughnuteconomics.org/">“doughnut” concepts</a> to sustainability, and the subcultures around <a href="https://directory.civictech.guide/tech">data</a> or health, which tend to thrive at some remove from orthodox politics and the mainstream media.</p>
<p>I always advise politicians to spend time with these innovators and to feed off their energy. Centre-left governments in countries as different as Finland and Portugal have been good at doing this. But you get little sense of anything comparable from the UK’s main parties right now.</p>
<h2>Labour’s challenge of imagination</h2>
<p>With Labour now <a href="https://theconversation.com/70-years-of-data-suggest-the-conservatives-will-suffer-a-big-defeat-at-the-next-election-heres-how-i-worked-it-out-193350">likely to win the next election</a>, Britain’s challenge of imagination is closely tied up with the party’s capacity to think and imagine. And here the signs are mixed at best. It’s understandable why Labour is prioritising seriousness and moderation in contrast to a government that has lost the plot. But I believe it risks misreading the historical moment we’re in.</p>
<p>The UK in 2024 will be a very different place from the UK of 1997 or Australia earlier in 2022, when <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-defeated-labor-to-govern-in-minority-or-majority-183594">its Labor party secured a majority</a>. These were countries enjoying stability and prosperity. Voters saw little risk in a change of government.</p>
<p>Crisis times, by contrast, demand commensurate boldness. Threats tend to drive the public to seek a haven of safety - which they may find in their sense of nation or in the promise of protective welfare. But they also react subliminally against parties that appear not to grasp the gravity of the situation. Indeed, there is <a href="https://ecpr.eu/Events/Event/PaperDetails/36541">quite strong evidence</a> that if electors believe they are likely to lose out in the years ahead (as many in the UK do now), they are willing to take quite big risks in the present – including voting for populist parties.</p>
<p>This could become a problem for Labour if the Conservatives shape-shift once again. So too could their caution over methods. As far as I can see, Labour has learned little from the newer parties around the world, such as Podemos, M5S and En Marche, with their often radically novel ways of mobilising people online.</p>
<p>Labour’s senior figures struggle to come across as interesting and engaging in the way that social media demands. One symptom of this is that the party currently has only <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@uklabourparty?lang=en">3,640 followers on Tiktok</a>, compared with Duolingo’s 5 million followers or Manchester United’s 20 million. Look at the few videos the party has put up and you appreciate just how much of a problem this is: excerpts from parliamentary speeches that feel like they could have been made in 1972 or 1992. It’s striking that the best recent social media outputs from Labour have simply cut together <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@uklabourparty/video/7149916987697728773">speeches by Conservatives</a> (which are, admittedly, funny and powerful).</p>
<p>On policy, too, the approach is perhaps deliberately traditional. Many of its ideas echo mainstream European and east Asian policy of half a century ago, rather than of the world of the 2020s and beyond.</p>
<p>Labour has, for example, now returned to industrial policy of the kind that was normal in countries like Germany, Japan or South Korea in the second half of the last century as they tried to shape, guide and direct their economies. This is welcome in comparison with the alternatives of the Corbynite left and the free market Tory right. But the problem with this return to the mainstream is that it leaves glaring gaps such as what this industrial policy would mean for services, which now dominate the UK economy, or for emerging technologies such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_technology">quantum</a>.</p>
<p>Labour’s big proposal for creating a new public organisation, <a href="https://theconversation.com/labours-great-british-energy-is-a-good-start-heres-how-to-make-it-work-for-everyone-191530">Great British Energy</a> (GBE), also takes its inspiration more from post-war Europe rather than the 2020s. Some of the language echoes Germany’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energiewende">Energiewende</a> in the 1980s, with its strong emphasis on moving to decentralised energy systems as well as away from fossil fuels. But the design of GBE - focused on production rather than seeing energy systems in the round - seems unsuited to this goal.</p>
<p>An even bigger challenge is how to be progressive without much cash. The next UK government will have none of the fiscal leeway that Labour had after 1997. It’s not hard to design generous, progressive policies if there’s plenty of money around; much harder to do so in times of austerity.</p>
<p>But money isn’t everything, and with a different mindset it’s still possible to plan changes that don’t require lots of money. In the recent past there have been many good examples, from <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/measures-to-release-880-million-from-dormant-assets-to-boost-opportunities-across-the-country">raising money from dormant bank accounts and insurance</a> to fund social projects, to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275676625_Urban_task_force">shifting regeneration to brownfield sites</a>. Many digital platforms now mobilise everything from underused parking spaces and spare rooms to household goods, part of a 21st-century way of thinking that is quite common in the green movement and among the digital natives, but still much less familiar in Whitehall and Westminster.</p>
<p>With a bit more confidence, there are many fields where Labour and other parties of the centre-left could be projecting radical alternatives – in a second or even third term, if not immediately. A decade ago, for example, Labour promised a <a href="https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/12703_19-Towards-the-National-Care-Service.pdf">National Care Service</a> – and this is certainly a field where the status quo is not plausible. While in the long run this is bound to need a lot of money, there is much that could be done to prepare the ground now.</p>
<p>Similarly, there is growing interest in mental health policies that address anxiety and depression <a href="https://covidandsociety.com/declining-mental-health-population-level-three-key-themes-ippo/">among large parts of the population</a>, not just small minorities. Many of these are as much about what employers should do as about state provision.</p>
<p>And then there is democracy itself. Evidence of declining public confidence in democratic systems has sparked an extraordinary wave of innovation globally, from <a href="https://medium.com/participo/digital-parliaments-adapting-democratic-institutions-to-21st-century-realities-99214d352063">digital parliaments</a> and <a href="https://citizensassembly.co.uk/">citizen assemblies</a> to new public roles such as <a href="https://www.futuregenerations.wales/">Wales’s future generations commissioner</a>. These are just a few examples where Labour could combine pragmatic realism in the short term with bolder accounts of where it wants to go longer term.</p>
<p>There are no fair winds for those who don’t know where they are going. The best leaders combine sharp diagnoses of problems of the present (and plausible responses) with a vision and roadmap for decades into the future. In fields such as engineering, it is assumed that progress depends on combining far-reaching imagination with highly competent implementation.</p>
<p>Yet over the last few years, Britain has too often suffered from the opposite – stunted imagination and incompetent implementation. As we grapple with the polycrisis for (likely) years to come, we will need both imaginative creativity and good implementation. Competence alone will not save us.</p>
<p><em>Geoff Mulgan is the author of <a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/another-world-is-possible/">Another World Is Possible: How to Reignite Social and Political Imagination</a> (Hurst and OUP)</em></p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/liverpools-unsung-covid-heroes-how-the-citys-arts-scene-became-a-life-support-network-192776?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Liverpool’s unsung COVID heroes: how the city’s arts scene became a life support network
</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/to-reach-net-zero-the-world-still-needs-mining-after-26-years-heres-what-ive-learned-about-this-evil-industry-190510?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">To reach net zero the world still needs mining. After 26 years, here’s what I’ve learned about this ‘evil’ industry
</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-gdp-changing-how-we-measure-progress-is-key-to-tackling-a-world-in-crisis-three-leading-experts-186488?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Beyond GDP: changing how we measure progress is key to tackling a world in crisis – three leading experts
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<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-public-cost-of-private-schools-rising-fees-and-luxury-facilities-raise-questions-about-charitable-status-182060?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">The public cost of private schools: rising fees and luxury facilities raise questions about charitable status
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<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193886/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoff Mulgan is affiliated with University College London. He is a member of the UK Labour Party and sits on various advisory boards, eg for Demos, Reform and Reimagine Europa. He is a fellow of Demos Helsinki and the New Institute in Hamburg, and is co-investigator of the International Public Policy Observatory (IPPO), in which The Conversation is a partner. His recent book 'Another World is Possible' was published by Hurst Publishers and Oxford University Press. </span></em></p>The gravity of the current situation is obscuring a less visible crisis – a failure of political imaginationGeoff Mulgan, Professor of Collective Intelligence, Public Policy and Social Innovation, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1632042021-06-30T15:52:13Z2021-06-30T15:52:13ZCanadian ethicists recognize the critical importance of science and research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408576/original/file-20210628-19-rzlkdz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C3699%2C2448&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed that the connections between science and policy need to be reconsidered.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On May 25, 2021, Member of Parliament Kirsty Duncan advanced <a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/members/en/kirsty-duncan(58877)/motions/10669628">Motion 38 to create a new Standing Committee for Science and Research (SCSR)</a>. The motion received unanimous support from all parties with a vote of 331-0. It recognizes that science and research are of critical importance and essential ingredients to informed decision-making across the economic, environmental and social challenges in Canada.</p>
<p>The SCSR is the 25th standing committee — the others span a range of priorities including health, heritage, human resources, industry, science and technology. Despite the breadth of topics, the mandate of only one standing committee — <a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/ETHI">Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics</a> — includes ethical issues, and then only in the limited context of access to information and privacy. </p>
<p>We suggest that critical ethical thinking, scholarship, and action have a role to play on every committee, especially the SCSR.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Member of Parliament Kirsty Duncan speaks about her motion to create a Standing Committee on Science and Research.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Evidence-informed policy</h2>
<p>Consider the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic that challenged straightforward accounts of evidence-informed, science-led policy-making in Canada. Scientific uncertainty prevailed early on, and even though the research community organized and has produced rigorous studies, considerable knowledge gaps persist. </p>
<p>Many of the key policy decisions during the pandemic have taken place in the context of scientific evidence that is underdetermined and socially contested: <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/vaccines.html">dosing intervals for COVID-19 vaccines</a>, whether to continue with <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/public-health-measures-mitigate-covid-19.html">public health and social measures</a> and <a href="https://travel.gc.ca/travel-covid">how long to quarantine returning travelers</a>.</p>
<p>Less visible, although no less prevalent, are the profound bioethical and governance issues surrounding emerging biotechnologies. A few examples include <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41536-017-0007-2">germline gene editing</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jogc.2017.05.007">mitochondrial transfer</a>, <a href="https://www.aans.org/en/Patients/Neurosurgical-Conditions-and-Treatments/Deep-Brain-Stimulation">implantation of electrodes deep into the brain</a> for psychiatric and movement disorders, and unprecedented capabilities offered by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s42256-019-0088-2">artificial intelligence</a>. Jurisdictions have taken different regulatory approaches to these, often based on both existing legal frameworks and sociocultural values.</p>
<p>On a global level, national science academies of the G7 nations have outlined the pressing issues they believe should be urgently addressed: creating a net zero climate resilient world, tackling <a href="https://www.interacademies.org/news/climate-change-biodiversity-and-data-health-emergencies-read-new-g7-science-academies">biodiversity loss</a>, and improving the use of data. </p>
<p>The international trend towards <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/od/oia/convergence/index.jsp">convergence research</a> integrates knowledge, methods and expertise from different disciplines to form novel frameworks to catalyze scientific discovery and innovation. It recognizes that, fundamentally, science and innovation strategies need to pay attention to social license and ethical principles.</p>
<h2>Novel strategies</h2>
<p>Integrating ethical, legal, social, cultural and political values into evidence gathering and synthesis is fraught with challenges. Answers to questions about which take precedence, how to adjudicate facts and values, and how to translate multidisciplinary resources into actionable strategies are vitally needed. </p>
<p>Expert ethics committees, commissions and councils for science and research have existed for centuries. Today, there are more than <a href="https://en.unesco.org/events/11th-global-summit-national-ethicsbioethics-committees">200 commissions devoted to bioethics</a> around the world. Their mandates have evolved beyond ethical issues in research to take on broader issues in health policy, science and technology, and engineering. No two are identical. Some respond only to direct requests for advice from their government; others have authority to identify their own agenda. Some countries locate their <a href="https://www.nuffieldbioethics.org">commissions outside of government</a>, while others report to an executive office, department or legislature. </p>
<p>Canada has not had such a commission per se, but has <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/new-reproductive-technologies-royal-commission-on">convened</a> other <a href="https://ethics.gc.ca/eng/home.html">bodies</a> whose responsibilities and work have functioned in similar ways.</p>
<h2>Informed decision-making</h2>
<p>Evidence-based policy development emphasizes the value-neutral goal of scientific reasoning and plays a central role in making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. </p>
<p>However, this approach ignores the fact that social values play direct and indirect roles in the conduct of scientific inquiry. Values can relate to how resources are allocated and decisions prioritized regarding the focus of science and the qualities and characteristics that increase the credibility and trustworthiness of claims and choices.</p>
<p>Guided by critical ethical reflection, values are needed at all levels of policy making. A national commitment to ethics guidance for science and research will ensure coordinated decision-making rather than ad hoc or opportunistic ones. Such guidance can be realized immediately with a clear ethics presence on the SCSR, and perhaps independently in its own right as a standing committee in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163204/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Judy Illes receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the National Institutes of Health (USA). She serves pro bono on a number of advisory boards for these government agencies and others, providing expertise in the area of biomedical and neuro ethics.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Chandler receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the Bertram Loeb Organ and Tissue Donation Institute, and Canadian Blood Services. She serves pro bono on a number of advisory bodies in Canada and abroad, providing expertise in biomedical ethics and law. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Steven J. Hoffman is the Scientific Director of the Canadian Institutes of Health Research's Institute of Population & Public Health. He receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Social Sciences & Humanities Research Council of Canada, and the Ontario Government’s Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Vardit Ravitsky receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Genome Canada, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, and the Quebec Research Funds. She serves pro bono on several boards and advisory groups in Canada and the USA, providing expertise in the area of bioethics.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bartha Knoppers, Eric M. Meslin, Ross Upshur, and Tania Bubela do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new standing committee will ensure that Canadian federal policy is based on science. The committee should consider critical ethical thinking, scholarship and action, as well as legal frameworks and sociocultural values.Judy Illes, Professor of Neurology and Director of Neuroethics Canada, University of British ColumbiaBartha Knoppers, Professor, Centre of Genomics and Policy, McGill UniversityEric M. Meslin, Adjunct Professor at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of TorontoJennifer Chandler, Professor of Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaRoss Upshur, Professor, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of TorontoSteven J. Hoffman, Director, Global Strategy Lab and Professor of Global Health, Law, and Political Science, York University, CanadaTania Bubela, Professor and Dean of the Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser UniversityVardit Ravitsky, Professor, Bioethics, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1579082021-04-20T08:08:01Z2021-04-20T08:08:01ZKenya doesn’t have a stand-alone tax on sugary drinks: we set out to find out why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395266/original/file-20210415-20-r25nse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The consumption of a lot of soft drinks is linked to increased obesity. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kenya is <a href="https://www.health.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Steps-Report-NCD-2015.pdf">experiencing a rise</a> in obesity. Overweight and obesity among women increased from 25% in 2008 to 33% in 2014. An estimated one in four Kenyan urban children are <a href="https://www.dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/sr227/sr227.pdf">overweight or obese</a>. At the same time there has been a rise in associated <a href="https://globalnutritionreport.org/resources/nutrition-profiles/?country-search=kenya">noncommunicable diseases</a>. These include diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Noncommunicable diseases now account for over <a href="https://www.health.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Steps-Report-NCD-2015.pdf">50% of hospital admissions</a> in the country.</p>
<p>Globally, the rise in noncommunicable diseases has been attributed to the growing consumption of unhealthy foods such as sugar-sweetened beverages. Between 2018 and 2019 Kenya registered a 30% spike in <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=Sugar%20Annual_Nairobi_Kenya_4-12-2018.pdf">sugar production</a> and an <a href="http://www.parliament.go.ke/sites/default/files/2019-08/Report%20on%20the%20Crisis%20Facing%20the%20Sugar%20Industry%20in%20Kenya%20%28%20Annexures%29.pdf">increase</a> in sugar consumption from the growth of retail, industrial and food service sectors. </p>
<p>To control the rising burden of obesity and noncommunicable diseases the World Health Organisation (WHO) <a href="https://www.who.int/dietphysicalactivity/publications/fiscal-policies-diet-prevention/en/">recommends</a> a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages. It views such taxes as a population-level, cost-effective measure to discourage consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. </p>
<p>The approach has been widely used in several countries including South Africa. However, to date, Kenya has no standalone sugar-sweetened beverage tax policy.</p>
<p>We undertook <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16549716.2021.1902659">research</a> into the possibility of implementing a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Kenya. </p>
<p>The study entailed a desk review of existing evidence on noncommunicable diseases and sugar-sweetened beverages. We also conducted interviews with a wide range of experts to explore the policy and political context as well as the enablers of and barriers to such a policy.</p>
<p>We identified a number of barriers to adopting a tax on sugary drinks in Kenya. These included limited evidence on sugar-sweetened beverages as a risk factor for noncommunicable diseases in Kenya. We also found industry interference in the development of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation policy. </p>
<p>But we also found that existing policies provided an opportunity to pursue a sugar tax in the country. These include the <a href="http://publications.universalhealth2030.org/uploads/kenya_health_policy_2014_to_2030.pdf">Kenya Health Policy</a> and the <a href="https://www.who.int/nmh/ncd-task-force/kenya-strategy-ncds-2015-2020.pdf?ua=1">National Strategy for Control and Prevention of Noncommunicable diseases</a>. </p>
<h2>Barriers</h2>
<p>A number of factors accounted for the fact that Kenya hasn’t pursued a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages.</p>
<p>The first was a dearth of up-to-date publicly available information on sugary drinks sales and consumption in Kenya. Data are essential to guide the decisions and process of development and adoption of a stand alone sugar-sweetened beverage tax. </p>
<p>Interviewees also cited lack of information in the general population about sugar-sweetened beverages and how they affect health. They attested to the fact that tobacco and alcohol are widely recognised risk factors for noncommunicable diseases. Not so with sugar-sweetened beverages.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>An important barrier when we are dealing with sugar-sweetened beverages is the fact that the public does not appreciate that this is a problem. What do respectable old men and women in the village, church elders, take when they go for a meeting? It is tea, Coca-Cola, Sprite, Fanta. I think it presents a subtle challenge that we don’t have when we are dealing with tobacco or alcohol. Nobody argues about the adverse consequences of tobacco or of alcohol.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A second barrier we identified was that government ministries held different and sometimes opposing interests. </p>
<p>For instance, the ministry of health was interested in improving health and discouraging the trade, production and marketing of sugary drinks. But the ministry of industry, trade and cooperatives promoted the sugar and food processing industries as major revenue for government. </p>
<p>Our key informants felt that these opposing priorities might get in the way of a sugar-sweetened beverage taxation policy being developed. </p>
<p>A third factor we identified was industry lobbying against sweet drinks taxation. The sugar-sweetened beverage companies were described by key informants as having major influence over government decision making. This was because of the power they wielded in terms of their operations, and their contribution to the government revenues. They also use industry alliances and formations to fight sugar-sweetened beverage taxes, which may overwhelm an under-resourced government like Kenya’s. </p>
<p>As one interviewee put it: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… unfortunately, there’s a lot of industry interference with policy (on sugary drinks). This is a big industry; very big in terms of capital and also in terms of influence. They pay a lot of tax to government and they have a lot of leverage … An industry like that of course has a lot of policy interference because they have big money they can compete with us.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Kenya does charge an excise tax on all soft drinks of 10 Kenya shillings (0.10 USD) per litre. This includes sugar-sweetened beverages. And in <a href="http://kenyalaw.org/kl/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/bills/2018/FinanceBill__2018.pdf">2018</a> an excise tax of 20 shillings (0.20 USD) per kilogram was imposed on sugar confectionery and chocolate. </p>
<p>But these taxes were introduced as a revenue generation strategy, not as a means to manage noncommunicable diseases. They are likely to have only a minimal impact on the consumption of sugary drinks.</p>
<h2>Going forward</h2>
<p>We made a number of recommendations on how a sugar-sweetened beverage tax could be developed and implemented in Kenya.</p>
<p>First, public and policymaker education is critical to challenge the prevailing attitudes to sugary drinks.</p>
<p>Second, strategies to develop industrial growth should be critically examined to understand how they could undermine the government’s commitment to addressing noncommunicable diseases. This will require wide stakeholder engagement beyond the ministry of health in policy development.</p>
<p>Third, civil society needs to be involved in sustained advocacy to ensure that Kenyans understand the issues at hand.</p>
<p>And more research evidence is needed to support an explicit sugar-sweetened beverage taxation policy. Kenya also needs to gather local and regional or international evidence to inform and guide its decisions in the development and adoption of a standalone tax on sugary drinks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This work was carried out with support from the International Development Research Centre (IDRC),Ottawa Canada (grant number 108648-001)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gershim Asiki does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Between 2018 and 2019 Kenya registered a 30% spike in sugar production and an increase in sugar consumption.Milka Wanjohi, Research officer, African Population and Health Research CenterGershim Asiki, Research Scientist, African Population and Health Research CenterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1470042020-09-29T06:21:09Z2020-09-29T06:21:09ZWe can build a more inclusive government and economy out of the pandemic — this blueprint shows us how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360485/original/file-20200929-22-uts80b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the COVID-19 pandemic transformed our lives earlier this year, our political leaders joined hands and said we were all in this together — and for a while we saw glimpses of a different kind of politics. </p>
<p>But as things got tougher, the cohesive National Cabinet became more fractious. The blame game and “politics-as-usual” took over and distracted from finding new solutions to tough problems. </p>
<p>With the country facing an <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-do-you-judge-a-budget-like-this-look-beyond-the-jobless-rate-20200928-p55zyb.html">uncertain economic future</a>, the <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/">University of Sydney’s Policy Lab</a> has brought together community and climate groups, unions and business groups to identify strategies for creating a different way of making policy and building a new economy coming out of the crisis.</p>
<p>The product is our “<a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/news-and-analysis/news-commentary/a-real-deal.html">Real Deal</a>” report released this week. </p>
<p>The Real Deal isn’t a typical policy document that outlines a magic bullet to the problems the pandemic has created. </p>
<p>We tried to break with the old battlegrounds and ideologies that have failed us over the last century. Instead of calling for unfettered free markets or big welfare states, or simple solutions like budget surpluses or endless stimulus packages, we are calling for a new relationship between the markets, government and civil society. </p>
<p>At the centre of this, we are arguing for a more collaborative approach and for mass community participation to be valued in public life.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360487/original/file-20200929-16-gd3w33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360487/original/file-20200929-16-gd3w33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360487/original/file-20200929-16-gd3w33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360487/original/file-20200929-16-gd3w33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360487/original/file-20200929-16-gd3w33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360487/original/file-20200929-16-gd3w33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360487/original/file-20200929-16-gd3w33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There is another way forward that isn’t ‘politics as usual’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>So how would we do that?</h2>
<p>Collaboration works when different groups have the authority and ability to negotiate solutions. </p>
<p>We saw this during the second wave of the pandemic in Victoria when United Workers Union members at a Coles distribution warehouse were able to <a href="https://overland.org.au/2020/04/the-struggle-of-the-invisible-essential-worker/">quickly push to make their workplace more COVID-safe</a> by using the Occupational and Safety Act. While initially reluctant, management introduced a series of changes, including a deep clean of machinery and temperature checks upon entrance.</p>
<p>Compared to hot spots like the <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/fresh-questions-over-cedar-meats-cluster-20200508-p54r2x">Cedar Meats warehouse</a>, these workers minimised the transmission of the virus, securing a better deal for themselves and kept food on supermarket shelves.</p>
<p>Novel solutions emerge when unusual partners collaborate. In Queensland, for instance, a diverse coalition of religious organisations, unions and community organisations called the <a href="https://www.qldcommunityalliance.org/">Queensland Community Alliance</a> has worked with researchers and state and federal governments to create a strategy to combat loneliness. </p>
<p>Their solution wasn’t about spending a lot of money, but reshaping how people use the state health system. They created a new health department role called a “<a href="https://www.qldcommunityalliance.org/keep_funding_our_ways_to_wellness_social_isolation_project">link worker</a>” that could help people navigate the maze of services available to them, saving time and money.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-covid-well-need-a-rethink-to-repair-australias-housing-system-and-the-economy-145437">After COVID, we'll need a rethink to repair Australia's housing system and the economy</a>
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<p>Policy is also better when it involves the full participation of everyday people. </p>
<p>In the Hunter Valley, Australia’s largest coal-mining region, local unions, environmental groups, community members and businesses have <a href="https://www.hunterrenewal.org.au/roadmap_to_renewal">formed an unusual alliance</a> to find solutions for the regional economy, which is threatened by the closure of mines due to climate change concerns.</p>
<p>Having <a href="https://www.hunterrenewal.org.au/we_knocked_on_thousands_of_local_doors">door-knocked residents</a> to ask their opinions, the new group <a href="https://www.hunterrenewal.org.au/roadmap_to_renewal">proposed plans</a> for new industries and jobs to create economic security for local residents. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1138174760636932096"}"></div></p>
<p>Participatory policy-making like this is easier when the government treats people as co-producers of solutions, not distant observers or barriers to change. It works best when it is built from the lived experiences of people who will be affected by these policies. </p>
<p>This was a weakness during the pandemic when policymakers often overlooked how their policy responses would affect different groups, such as
<a href="http://www.blackdoginstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/20200319_covid19-evidence-and-reccomendations.pdf">those with mental illness</a>,<a href="https://flemkenlegal.org/latest-news/2020/7/4/our-statement-on-the-hard-lockdown-of-the-public-housing-hi-rise">the residents of public housing towers in Melbourne</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-temporary-migrants-need-jobkeeper-135688">temporary migrants</a>. </p>
<p>The lesson is that effective policy-making puts affected people at the centre of these discussions — much in the way the <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520224810/nothing-about-us-without-us">disability sector</a> has long advocated a “nothing about us without us” approach.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-lives-matter-melbourne-public-housing-residents-talk-about-why-covid-19-hits-them-hard-142901">Our lives matter – Melbourne public housing residents talk about why COVID-19 hits them hard</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Five benchmarks for the solutions we need</h2>
<p>In building the “Real Deal” report, we put these ideas into practice. We began our research not with books, but with the lived experience of leaders in civil society — listening to their stories and responding to the challenges their members were facing. </p>
<p>We took this research to a panel of Australian and international economists and academics, then began a slow process of writing a new framework together. We sought case studies — real solutions — tested in the field by our collaborators, like the ones outlined above. </p>
<p>The process took months, but that time enabled genuine collaboration and participation. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.arealdeal.org/">report</a> offers five benchmarks for measuring whether policy-making is contributing to the solutions we need. These include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>an awareness that reshaping how the state serves the people is even more vital than big stimulus packages </p></li>
<li><p>a focus on addressing pre-existing inequalities and injustices laid bare by the pandemic</p></li>
<li><p>a bold vision that matches the scale of our economic and climate crises </p></li>
<li><p>the active participation of people in decisions that affect them</p></li>
<li><p>a deeply collaborative process. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Central to a real deal is that people make a difference. We are the ones who can make the deals for regional economic development in the face of climate change or create a new health system based on people’s needs.</p>
<p>There is a growing lament in Australia that politicians let us down. But the lesson from the pandemic is we have the power to change our economy and politics, and if we do, we might emerge from these crises stronger.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/healthcare-minerals-energy-food-how-adopting-new-tech-could-drive-australias-economic-recovery-146410">Healthcare, minerals, energy, food: how adopting new tech could drive Australia's economic recovery</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Tattersall is a member of her union, the National Tertiary Education Union. </span></em></p>There is a growing lament in Australia that politicians let us down. But the lesson from the pandemic is that we, the people, have the power to change our economy and politics for a better future.Amanda Tattersall, Research Lead Sydney Policy Lab, Postdoctoral Fellow Geography, Host of ChangeMakers Podcast, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1443102020-08-18T15:08:40Z2020-08-18T15:08:40ZObesity strategy: policies placing responsibility on individuals don’t work – so why does the government keep using them?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353431/original/file-20200818-20-lnahzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C8%2C5734%2C3794&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Most of these initiatives still place emphasis on getting people to change their eating and lifestyle habits.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/overweight-couple-running-green-park-746805604">Africa Studio/ Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The government has recently announced a strategy aimed at <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tackling-obesity-government-strategy/tackling-obesity-empowering-adults-and-children-to-live-healthier-lives">reducing obesity</a> in the UK. It will introduce a ban on unhealthy food advertisements on TV before a certain hour, end “buy one, get one free” junk food deals, and create more comprehensive calorie contents on food and drinks. </p>
<p>The government has also launched the <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/better-health/">Better Health</a> campaign, to motivate overweight and obese people to lose weight. The programme offers tools and support from NHS weight management services, including a Better Health 12-week weight loss plan app.</p>
<p>While some of the proposed strategies are long overdue – such as bans on junk food advertisements – most of these initiatives still place emphasis on getting people to change their eating and lifestyle habits. Not only does this type of strategy ignore the many drivers of obesity, such initiatives have also been proven ineffective time and again. </p>
<h2>Individual responsibility</h2>
<p>For decades now, health promotion policies targeting non-communicable diseases have focused on getting people to <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/change4life">change their lifestyles</a>. The rationale is that these diseases (such as diabetes and heart disease) are mostly due to modifiable factors – such as poor diet, smoking, consuming alcohol and not moving enough. </p>
<p>These campaigns aim to give people the information needed to change their behaviour. So-called “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01442872.2018.1554806">nudges</a>” are also used to promote lifestyle change. Examples include greater visibility of healthy food in supermarkets and encouraging people to take the stairs where possible.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/four-reasons-the-uk-governments-obesity-strategy-may-not-work-for-everyone-143695">Four reasons the UK government's obesity strategy may not work for everyone</a>
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</em>
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<p>However, a growing body of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-9566.12112">research</a> shows these types of health policies don’t work. This is because such policies place responsibility on the person, ignoring the other drivers of obesity. <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9781137463067">Social inequity</a>, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurpub/ckz197/5709506">the influence of food and beverage industries</a>, and specific aspects of <a href="https://globalizationandhealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1744-8603-2-4">globalisation</a> (including <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S074937971831554X">trade liberalisation</a>) are all known causes of obesity. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="High street fast food restaurants." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353434/original/file-20200818-16-1ienekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353434/original/file-20200818-16-1ienekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353434/original/file-20200818-16-1ienekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353434/original/file-20200818-16-1ienekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353434/original/file-20200818-16-1ienekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353434/original/file-20200818-16-1ienekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353434/original/file-20200818-16-1ienekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Unhealthy food options are often cheaper and more accessible than healthy ones.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/30-august-2016-hastings-uk-ore-484093936">sixpixx/ Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Policies focused on changing behaviour end up blaming people for factors which are often entirely out of their control. What’s even more worrying in the current context is the government’s emphasis on obesity as a reason for the UK’s number of coronavirus deaths. While there’s undoubtedly a link between obesity and COVID-19, the government’s obesity strategy is effectively <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30274-6/fulltext">shifting the blame</a> from the government’s response onto people living with obesity.</p>
<p>Health policymakers <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-9566.12783">increasingly acknowledge</a> that many factors outside a person’s control contribute to health inequalities. However, the health policies designed time and again still <a href="https://academic.oup.com/heapro/article/32/4/755/2950993">tend to promote</a> lifestyle interventions as a solution. </p>
<p>Research shows that obesity <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(18)30045-8/fulltext">disproportionately affects</a> people from <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1733121/pdf/v059p00670.pdf">poorer backgrounds</a>. Yet instead of seeking to change the <a href="https://pure.strath.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/88489429/Scott_Samuel_Smith_STH_2015_Fantasy_paradigms_of_health_inequalities_utopian_thinking.pdf">causes of these inequalities</a>, policy responses continue to promote lifestyle changes, only more strongly targeted at <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19460171.2017.1398672">poorer populations</a>. This stigmatises poorer population subgroups instead of offering real solutions. And it fails to take into account issues of access and affordability of healthy lifestyles that people from low-income communities often face.</p>
<h2>Corporate involvement</h2>
<p>One reason the government continues to design policies that place responsibility on individuals is because of the growing involvement of food and drink manufacturers in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19460171.2020.1795699">policymaking</a>. This is because the food and drink industry is still considered an <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2016.00064/full">important partner</a> in the fight against diet-related diseases – despite obvious <a href="https://www.ijhpm.com/article_3793_99c25a697ec01c9a6080c1d4ce1fac93.pdf">conflicts of interest</a>. </p>
<p>The idea that everyone can work together towards a common good, reflects a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0020852305053881">governance style</a> that became popular over the last decades in the US and Europe. It promotes the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/21/4/400/438242">creation of partnerships</a> and the inclusion of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-social-policy/article/businesssocial-policy-nexus-corporate-power-and-corporate-inputs-into-social-policy/49CFDC1A04B97E06759BEAD89BFAC807">industry</a> at all stages of policymaking. This is done through <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1000202">impact assessments</a> and consultations.</p>
<p>Blurring the boundaries between the private and public sector is <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/182715?casa_token=D_jH7Ts7sPgAAAAA:YuhvWHuSAsM5v9iy3ed-Roiqe9T7X5Rk7T1F8zjCqXo-2yVWXUvNYuHptqV8QFKCSdgqufrksVo0">problematic for public health</a>. Processed food and soft drink industries have an <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-789X.2011.00918.x?casa_token=CjcZJs4iHzwAAAAA:5-vRJbzB561VWXUmYQc-oA8-EOyDlVQJW27Q-lPCs9sURmLldzeQ2CZgHO2jsu1dohrSlh03LEvJJFA6">interest</a> in keeping health promotion policies focused on individual behaviour. Doing so, they avoid regulation and can protect their bottom line. In addition, they can engage in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1467-9566.2008.01121.x">corporate social responsibility</a> activities to promote healthy behaviours. This makes them look good, even though their products are the cause of the problem.</p>
<p>Although advertising bans go against industry interest, the <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30217-0/fulltext">commercial determinants of health</a> are much more deeply ingrained than the obesity strategy currently recognises. If governments continue to embed industry lobbying in health promotion policies, they are likely to remain limited to individual responsibility. </p>
<p>Meaningful change will require a rethinking of policymaking processes to <a href="https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703358.001.0001/acprof-9780198703358-chapter-13">prioritise public health over private interests</a>. It will also require more explicit engagement with the economic and political drivers of obesity when making future policies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144310/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlotte Godziewski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The food and beverage industry is increasingly involved in the policymaking process.Charlotte Godziewski, Lecturer in Sociology and Policy, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1378602020-05-11T11:09:15Z2020-05-11T11:09:15ZCoronavirus: record ethnicity on all death certificates to start building a clearer picture<p>If one thing is clear by now from the coronavirus pandemic, it is that the disease does not affect everyone equally. </p>
<p>Analysis from the Office for National Statistics starkly outlines that those living in areas with high levels of deprivation are being most heavily impacted. There have been 55 deaths for every 100,000 people in the poorest parts of England, compared with <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand17april">25 in the wealthiest areas</a>. </p>
<p>There is also mounting evidence that black, Asian and minority ethnic communities are being disproportionately affected by the virus. Black men are more than <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/coronavirusrelateddeathsbyethnicgroupenglandandwales/2march2020to10april2020">four times more likely</a> to die from COVID-19 than their white counterparts. Likewise, non-white patients with COVID-19 have been shown to make up more than 34% of those in <a href="https://ripetomato2uk.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/icnarc-covid-19-report-2020-04-24.pdf">intensive care</a>.</p>
<p>These figures are truly shocking, and have led to the announcement of an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/inquiry-disproportionate-impact-coronavirus-bame">official inquiry</a>, to be headed by NHS England and Public Health England, into the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on black, Asian and minority ethnic communities. </p>
<p>Such figures also make clear the need for data that is disaggregated – separated out into categories – by protected characteristics such as ethnicity, disability, age and gender. </p>
<p>As the outbreak has progressed, there has been growing recognition of this from the government and in mid-April, Public Health England <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52338101">announced it was to start recording</a> COVID-19 cases and deaths in hospitals by ethnicity. </p>
<p>But we are still not doing enough. Only by adding ethnicity onto all death certificates will we be able to establish a complete picture of the impact on those from black, Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds.</p>
<h2>Governing with our hands tied</h2>
<p>There’s another pressing problem: the fact that we didn’t collect this data in the past makes it even harder to come up with a policy response to the crisis today. Even as we begin disaggregating data now, we suffer from the problem of not being able to compare it to data before the pandemic began.</p>
<p>Not having access to this fine-tuned data means government officials are forced to operate with one hand tied behind their back in formulating health and social policies in response to COVID-19.</p>
<p>Collecting disaggregated data is also vitally important so we can undertake what’s known as intersectional analysis, which shows how people’s outcomes are simultaneously affected by multiple factors such as gender, disability, and ethnicity.</p>
<p>Taking an intersectional approach has the power to provide us with greater insight about individuals, their lives, their needs and the potential gaps in the service provision required to meet those needs. </p>
<p>This is because it shows that the inequalities faced by women of colour are not the same as those faced by white women with a racial element “added on”: they are fundamentally different. For example, <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/grand-challenges/sites/grand-challenges/files/structurally-unsound-report.pdf">recent figures</a> show an unemployment rate of 2.9% for non-disabled white women. This figure jumps to 7% for non-disabled black, Asian and minority ethnic women (BAME) and to 14% for disabled black, Asian and ethnic minority women.</p>
<p>It is also important to recognise that analysing data under broad terms such as BAME is often not sufficient. Analysis of death rates per 100,000 population in England showed marked differences <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/black-coronavirus-patients-are-dying-at-double-the-rate-of-white-in-hospitals-lddtfs6vz">between ethnic groups</a> – with figures of 23 for white British, 27 for Asians, 43 for black people, and 69 for those of Caribbean heritage. </p>
<p>Access to better data therefore not only rests on improved collection, but also delving into broad categorisations such as BAME.</p>
<h2>Data is political</h2>
<p>While the COVID-19 pandemic shows the need for better data, it also shines a spotlight on the political dimension of data collection. Without mandatory collection and reporting requirements, this can be inconsistent between local and national levels of government and across the devolved nations of the UK. </p>
<p>For example, in Scotland, ethnicity is recorded on death certificates, however such data is not routinely captured in England and Wales. This is despite a <a href="https://www.kent.ac.uk/chss/docs/Births_Deaths_Reg1.pdf">report back in 2003</a> noting that collecting this information was vital for tackling health inequalities. </p>
<p>COVID-19 is exposing this as a deadly failing. So it is vital that systematic, standardised collection of properly disaggregated data is undertaken now. Such data is imperative in the immediate term as we create responses to COVID-19, but also as we deal with the aftershocks of the pandemic right across society more broadly. </p>
<p>The fact that the UK has reached the grim milestone of having the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52549860">highest death toll in Europe</a> shows we need more robust data collection in order to respond better to this crisis.</p>
<p>We need policies that recognise and take steps to address the inequalities in UK society. We need an intersectional response now, more than ever, if we are to rebuild a more equitable society that works for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137860/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Siobhan Morris receives funding from HEIF. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olivia Stevenson receives funding from Research England, EPSRC and HEIF</span></em></p>Coronavirus is hitting some communities harder than others. But a lack of very basic data categorisation means it’s difficult for the UK government to tailor its response.Siobhan Morris, Grand Challenge of Justice & Equality, UCLOlivia Stevenson, Head of Public Policy, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1334662020-03-12T14:43:47Z2020-03-12T14:43:47ZCoronavirus: the pressures governments face in balancing safety and liberty<p>Some authorities across Europe have taken drastic measures to contain the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. This has included imposing restrictions on movement across Italy. </p>
<p>Differences in the way governments are reacting have become apparent, with some politicians emphasising the need for a proportionate response, or what German Chancellor Angela Merkel called “measured and levelheaded” (“Maß und Mitte”). UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has spoken about the <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8077969/Boris-Johnson-takes-Morning-sofa-cool-stockpiling-frenzy.html">“need to strike a balance”</a> when deciding which measures are too draconian. As the US imposed a travel ban against all foreigners who have been to mainland Europe, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak pointed to a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-does-not-need-to-copy-us-ban-on-flights-from-eu-says-sunak">lack of evidence</a> that “interventions like closing borders or travel bans are going to have a material effect on the spread of the infections”.</p>
<p>What does, and does not, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2015.1127275">constitute an overreaction</a> is a question of how severe a threat is to public health, the expected benefits of any proposed counter-measures weighed against the likely costs and displacement risks of such measures. As governments decide on the right response, they need to be conscious of their own biases and be aware that they could over-react to the wrong pressures when responding to the threat of COVID-19.</p>
<p>Overreaction in public policy can come in different forms. Measures could, for example, undermine themselves in their intended goals. The decision to quarantine large parts of northern Italy was leaked to the media, which meant that many people fled the region, potentially spreading the virus faster. Similarly, a decision to close all schools could leave more elderly relatives – the very people who are most susceptible to the virus – providing emergency childcare.</p>
<p>Other measures can create public health risks elsewhere. Large-scale school closures are likely to lead to carers, nurses, and doctors staying at home to look after their children rather than working in hospitals. </p>
<p>Efforts to treat the virus may also cause “collateral damage” beyond public health. Cancelling flights and public events has economic repercussions, after all. What’s more, huge losses to the public purse can be expected to eventually translate into spending cuts. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) calculated that 130,000 more people died because of the government austerity measures implemented between <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/01/perfect-storm-austerity-behind-130000-deaths-uk-ippr-report">2012-17</a> as part of attempts to recover from the 2008 financial crash. There is the potential for the same to happen again. </p>
<p>We might also consider whether some measures against corona can be considered so damaging to societal cohesion and values that they should not be taken, even if they might help slow contagion. For instance, targeting certain groups with coercive measures because of their ethnicity or nationality, asking citizens to report on those deemed infected, or requiring people to subject themselves to having all their movements and social contacts monitored (as in China) could be seen as off-limits for a human-rights-respecting liberal democracy.</p>
<h2>Avoiding overreaction</h2>
<p>So how can the risk of overreaction be reduced? It’s useful to be aware of, and if necessary, guard against the underlying political incentives and mechanisms at play.</p>
<p>Calls for action against an impending epidemic can create a powerful incentive for mounting a forceful yet poorly calibrated response from politicians. They are under pressure to reassure a frightened public by saying “everything” will be done to stop the virus. </p>
<p>This is particularly the case when public authorities feel vulnerable to being accused of under-reacting. The draconian measures on display in China may at least in part relate to criticisms that the public response had been slow at first. And the hospitals in the Lombardy region of Italy now under quarantine were being investigated for missing many opportunities to test a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/26/coronavirus-inquiry-opens-into-hospitals-at-centre-of-italy-outbreak">“super-spreader” patient</a>. Decision makers need a degree of self-awareness about these motivational biases and work out which political pressures actually need to be resisted rather than acted upon. </p>
<p>It’s all too easy to follow existing templates in times of crisis, but that can mean relying on outdated assumptions about how a threat may evolve.</p>
<p>A review of the 2009 <a href="https://www.who.int/ihr/publications/RC_report/en/">swine flu (H1N1) pandemic</a> found that some state authorities were in some respects over-reacting to the WHO decisions to escalate its warnings. The <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61252/the2009influenzapandemic-review.pdf">UK’s own review</a> noted problems in the official use of “reasonable worst case” scenarios of tens of thousands of deaths. The decision-making and communication at the time was the result of a decade of pandemic planning, largely premised on a threat similar to the avian influenza A (H5N1) that appeared in 1997 in Hong Kong. But swine flu of 2009 turned out to be quite different. It was much more contagious but far less dangerous than avian flu, which has a <a href="https://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/avian_influenza/h5n1_research/faqs/en/">fatality rate of 60%</a>. It was, in fact, milder than many strands of seasonal flu.</p>
<p>There is still some uncertainty about the likely fatality rate of this new coronavirus, with most estimates varying between <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743">1-2% for Europe</a> – mostly those with existing conditions. This is several times higher than seasonal flu, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/04/coronavirus-flu-comparison/">which is around 0.2%</a>, but still kills thousands each year without it being described as a “deadly virus”. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/12/britain-containing-covid-19-countries-hong-kong-singapore">Covid-19 appears to be also more contagious than seasonal flu</a>.</p>
<p>Authorities and citizens do have a responsibility to protect those most vulnerable and to “flatten the infection curve” to protect health systems and buy more time for research into vaccines and treatments. But this does not mean that any measure to slow the disease is justified or proportionate.</p>
<p>What matters to avoid both under and overreaction is that decision-makers need to constantly test their underlying assumptions against the best and most up-to-date available advice and evidence. They need to avoid making decisions in silos and draw on experts from relevant areas beyond health. If necessary, they need to make corrections both internally and publicly. It is never easy for bureaucracies to question and depart from existing plans, procedures and protocols in fast-moving situations. Nor is it easy for politicians and experts to change their previous public advice and counter misperceptions in the media and public. But the cost of not doing so are high. It is not too late for European decision-makers to bear some of these lessons in mind.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133466/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The article benefited from research undertaken that was funded by the European Research Council (FORESIGHT) on early warning and conflict prevention. The author also gratefully acknowledges current funding by the UK’s ESRC on intelligence and and learning in European foreign policy, which is only indirectly related to the subject of the article. The views expressed are the sole responsibility of the author and should not be attributed to anyone else.</span></em></p>At times of high tension, governments can be cornered into making mistakes by responding to the wrong pressures.Christoph Meyer, Professor of European and International Politics, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1263142019-11-13T11:21:13Z2019-11-13T11:21:13ZHow simple policy changes can help us age better and prevent cognitive decline<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301373/original/file-20191112-178511-r00zvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4193%2C2785&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ensuring older people can continue to socialise is important for preventing loneliness and cognitive decline. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/group-senior-friends-chatting-416231764?src=750ff30e-cf7f-44e0-9e41-3d5b64188ddb-1-2">Pressmaster/ Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many people experience a decline in cognitive function with age, such as a worsening memory and trouble processing information. In most cases, this is perfectly normal. In some cases, however, age-related cognitive decline may affect a person’s ability to carry out complex tasks, such as managing finances or preparing a meal. At times, it may even make it difficult for a person to perform daily tasks, such as dressing and feeding. </p>
<p>Around 18% of the UK’s population is <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/july2017">aged 65 and older</a>. By 2030, it’s estimated that <a href="https://www.ageuk.org.uk/globalassets/age-uk/documents/reports-and-publications/later_life_uk_factsheet.pdf">one in five UK people</a> will be aged over 65. </p>
<p>But this doesn’t account for the number of people who will experience cognitive decline and dementia as they age. Incidence of dementia sharply rises at the age of 75 – and it is expected that the number of people in the UK living with dementia <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK513075/">could triple by 2050</a>. Cognitive function is very important to older people’s well-being. It influences <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK513075/">everything they do</a>, including working and socialising, and has a huge social and economic impact on families. Finding ways to prevent cognitive decline is increasingly important.</p>
<p>We’re often told that the solution to cognitive decline lies in <a href="https://www.alz.co.uk/news/biogen-and-eisai-announce-plans-to-file-for-market-approval-of-alzheimers-drug">new medicines or therapies</a> that can reduce symptoms, or by following a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)32350-9/fulltext">healthy lifestyle</a>. </p>
<p>But recent research by our team found that <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3950961/">social and emotional well-being</a> – meaning our feelings of being connected to family and the community, and our subjective experience of positive or negative emotions – may be just as important as therapy and lifestyle for maintaining good cognitive function in older age. <a href="https://g2aging.org/">Numerous studies</a> from around the world have found that social connectedness and loneliness influence older people’s cognitive function, including their memory. </p>
<p>Loneliness affects <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00223980.2011.609572">approximately 9% of people</a> over 65 in the UK. It’s a complex emotional state where people perceive their social interactions and individual relationships to be inadequate. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.elsa-project.ac.uk/">One major study on ageing</a> – which collects data from more than 18,000 UK over-50s about physical and mental health, well-being, finances and attitudes towards ageing – found that isolation and loneliness were associated with poorer memory, especially among those with lower levels of education. In addition, loneliness in older age was associated with a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ije/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ije/dyz085/5485775">steeper decline in cognitive function</a>. This included worse memory and verbal fluency. </p>
<h2>Cognitive decline and loneliness</h2>
<p>Although these findings are staggering, they also show us how difficult it is to establish if loneliness causes cognitive decline, or if cognitive decline causes loneliness. One way to find out is by looking at whether interventions to reduce loneliness also inadvertently affect older people’s cognitive health too. </p>
<p>We addressed this question in a series of studies looking at the impact that free bus travel had on over-60s. When the UK government gave free bus travel to people over 60 in 2006, it was thought that the measure may reduce loneliness and increase social engagement as it enables older people to remain connected to their social environments. </p>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/188/10/1774/5525029">We found</a> that free bus travel significantly increased public transportation use but, in addition, it led to improvements in cognitive function – particularly, improved memory. </p>
<p><a href="https://jech.bmj.com/content/72/5/361">In another study</a>, we found that increased public transportation use also reduced depression and feelings of loneliness. It increased participation in volunteering activities and contact with older people’s adult children and friends. These findings show how a simple policy has had unintended positive consequences. It led to significant improvements in older people’s cognitive function and mental health – potentially by influencing social well-being. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301515/original/file-20191113-77363-1fddgvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301515/original/file-20191113-77363-1fddgvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301515/original/file-20191113-77363-1fddgvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301515/original/file-20191113-77363-1fddgvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301515/original/file-20191113-77363-1fddgvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301515/original/file-20191113-77363-1fddgvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301515/original/file-20191113-77363-1fddgvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Public transport increased community participation, which improved cognitive function and well-being.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/nottingham-nottinghamshire-uk-05282017-three-old-1092811700?src=39224da0-c962-4edc-840b-0128cd0be1dd-1-18&studio=1">Simon Annable/ Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This isn’t the first time we’ve found how social policy changes can help protecting older people against cognitive decline. For example, <a href="https://jech.bmj.com/content/73/4/370">we examined the impact</a> of a French law that increased the minimum legal school leaving age by 2 years in 1959, from 14 to 16 years of age.</p>
<p>This law effectively increased the years of schooling for French adults presently reaching old age. We found that even decades after leaving school, a longer period in education helped older adults maintain cognitive function – particularly memory – and postponed cognitive decline. </p>
<p>Even policies that affect the whole economy have been found to be an important factor in health and memory. We found that <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6018975/">older people exposed to an economic recession</a> in the years leading up to their retirement experience faster cognitive decline in their post-retirement years. This suggests that policies that protect older people from the impact of economic decline might help them to maintain good cognitive function in older age. </p>
<p>Long-term care policies that enable older people to maintain independence and continue to socialise may also be important. “<a href="https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/aging-place-growing-older-home">Ageing in place</a>”, an approach that emphasises the importance of supporting older people to continue living in their home and community, has led many governments to offer care for older people with limitations in their own home. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783319689685">Our research suggests</a> that only a small fraction of older Europeans that have difficulty performing daily activities (such as dressing, walking or washing) are actually eligible to receive home care through the government. </p>
<p>But we also found that an increase in the amount of care that people receive at home through government-sponsored programmes, paradoxically, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hec.3665">increases the amount of assistance they receive</a> from friends and family. This suggests that a long-term policy that expands access to home care may help older people maintain social ties, mental well-being, and cognitive function well into older age.</p>
<p>While prospects such as new drugs that protect against cognitive ageing are exciting, research shows that many simple policy changes can also promote social and emotional well-being – which may be just as important for maintaining brain function in later life. Even in the face of declining physical ability, programmes that provide long-term care at home may be critical for maintaining cognitive function and leading a <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/116/4/1207">meaningful life at older age</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126314/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mauricio Avendano (<a href="mailto:mauricio.avendano_pabon@kcl.ac.uk">mauricio.avendano_pabon@kcl.ac.uk</a>) receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and the European Commission Horizon2020 Programme. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ludovico Carrino is research fellow at the Department of Global Health & Social Medicine at King's College London. He receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and the European Commission Horizon 2020 Programme. He is affiliated with the Department of Economics at the Ca' Foscari University of Venezia.</span></em></p>Simple policies, such as the free bus pass for older adults, not only reduce loneliness but also help older people maintain cognitive function.Mauricio Avendano Pabon, Professor of Public Policy & Global Health, King's College LondonLudovico Carrino, Research fellow, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1260232019-11-07T01:55:20Z2019-11-07T01:55:20ZAnalysis: Indonesian policymaking is not supported by quality research and academic freedom<p>Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo recently picked his cabinet ministers. They will be expected to drive policymaking and implementation in the next five years to tackle the complex problems affecting the nation of more than a quarter-billion people. </p>
<p>Policymaking sounds like a big word, and it is. Government policies determine how they deliver their programs and services that affect everyday lives.</p>
<p>And Indonesia needs good policies. It’s at a critical juncture. </p>
<p><a href="http://ejournal.lipi.go.id/index.php/jmiipsk/article/view/626">Until 2030, Indonesia will have more people of productive age</a> than children and older people. But, without good policies, the country might miss this window of opportunity. It might turn old before it becomes rich. </p>
<p>To succeed in delivering programs that help eliminate poverty, ensure people are fed nutritious food, have quality education, are resilient to natural disasters and respectful of diversity, among others, the government must base policies on academically sound evidence. </p>
<p>But our study, <a href="http://www.gdn.int/doing-research-assessment">Doing Research Assessment</a>, shows Indonesian policymaking is predominantly informed by research with poor theoretical engagement, with no strong tradition of peer review and with legal threats to academic freedom. </p>
<h2>Connection between research and policymaking</h2>
<p>In the study, we implemented a three-step methodology. First, we did an overall assessment of the economic, political, historical and regional context. Second, we mapped national research actors. Finally, we surveyed 102 respondents: researchers (33.3%), research administrators (39.3%) and policymakers (27.4%). </p>
<p>The respondents represent organisations that produce or use social sciences. They come from government and funding organisations, civil society organisations, higher education institutions, and private think tanks. </p>
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<p>Our study shows that there is a good connection between people and institutions in the social research sector with policymakers. </p>
<p>A majority of researchers (66.7%) have received government requests for expert advice on the social aspects of policy development. Significantly, a majority of research organisation (68.3%) have worked on research commissioned directly by the government. And 93.5% of researchers have been a member of a policy advisory board at a central level over the last three years. </p>
<p>The majority of policymakers (92.9%) also claim that they benefit from research products such as scientific papers, working papers, presentation slides and position papers. </p>
<p>But this connection between the social research sector and policymakers is not accompanied by high-quality and academically rigorous research through peer review and academic collaboration.</p>
<p>Some 76.5% of researchers received less than two weeks of capacity building, such as research-related and publication training, in the past three years. Some 43.8% have not published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and 57.6% are not members of a professional research network. </p>
<p>Moreover, 60.6% collaborated in their research with individuals outside their home institution less than four times, while 61.5% of organisations have not hosted public debates related to research. It takes more intensive and frequent meetings and collaborations to build academic rigour and excellence.</p>
<p>The questionable link between social science research and policymaking exists in a research ecosystem with low government support. </p>
<p>The Indonesian government does not spend enough on basic research. As a result, universities take on commissioned research to generate income. </p>
<p>The government spends <a href="https://www.ksi-indonesia.org/in/news/detail/kinerja-riset-ilmu-sosial-indonesia-masih-rendah">around 0.2% of its GDP on research</a>, ten times lower than other countries in the region. Even though it increased from 0.09% in 2013 to 0.25% of GDP in 2016, it is still well below Singapore (2.2% of GDP), Malaysia (1.3%), Thailand (0.6%) and even Vietnam (0.4%). </p>
<h2>Independent research in democracy</h2>
<p>In Indonesia, there is little room for progressive and critical academic discourses to exist, which is a pre-requisite for the use of evidence in policymaking. </p>
<p>Social sciences have experienced a long history of repression in Indonesia and have often been used as a tool to serve the <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/about-us/publications/Documents/indo-ks-design.pdf">interests of the elite</a>. </p>
<p>In the 18th century, the Dutch colonial government controlled science and research development by employing scholars and scientists as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27751556?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">full-time bureaucrats</a>. </p>
<p>From 1965 to 1998, the authoritarian New Order administration used social sciences to <a href="https://books.google.co.id/books/about/Social_Science_and_Power_in_Indonesia.html?id=WM3_ulRJFlkC&redir_esc=y">justify state policies</a>. </p>
<p>While direct government control over social research has lessened following the fall of the New Order, other imperatives are at work in limiting the kinds of social issues that can be researched. </p>
<p>Since the mid-2000s, social research themes have been submitted to the demands of the market. As they have become income sources for private and state universities, research is dictated by what can be <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00472336.2019.1627389">sold</a> to the political, the private, the government, or the donor markets. </p>
<p>Ensuring the academic freedom of social scientists means they can both <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/06/21/why-indonesia-is-so-bad-at-lawmaking">strengthen and question government policies via criticism</a></p>
<p>But about 48.3% of our respondents experience undue influence from policymakers while doing their research. For example, many academic discussions has been <a href="https://tirto.id/menristekdikti-bukan-pawang-mahasiswa-eiXG">disbanded</a>, much of them after 2018, before the election year. </p>
<p>In 2019, survey data have also been used to justify the electability of political candidates. Different election polling agencies can produce <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3006562/indonesia-election-jokowi-takes-lead-over-prabowo-subianto">starkly different numbers</a> – one camp declared it was leading by 8 to 9 points, while the other claimed it had won 62% of the vote. </p>
<p>This demonstrates how “evidence” can be tailored for political purposes. </p>
<p>The appointment of former presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, an ex-military general accused of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/23/indonesia-joko-widodo-appoints-arch-rival-as-defence-minister-prabowo-subianto">human rights abuse</a>, as Jokowi’s defence minister also shows the competition between presidential candidates was less a reflection of a thriving democracy and more of an oligarchic consolidation. </p>
<p>In Indonesia, without proof that academic rigour is present, any claim of evidence-based policymaking must be treated with caution. </p>
<p>This superficial connection puts good policymaking at risk. Despite researchers bringing “evidence”, they are vulnerable to becoming stamps to legitimise policies without properly assessing their value and impact. </p>
<p>Only by ensuring that academic rigour is present, and the independence of social scientists is non-negotiable, can we hope for a meaningful connection between academics and policymakers. </p>
<p>Without this, the poor imagination of Indonesian social scientists and their low presence in international academic and public debates on the global future of democracy will keep them as instruments for <a href="https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/7531.pdf">elite interests</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors would like to thank the critical insight Dr. Herlambang Wiratraman, socio-legal scholar from Universitas Airlangga, Indonesia, has provided throughout the research.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126023/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Inaya Rakhmani menerima dana dari Global Development Network. Inaya terafiliasi dengan Akademi Ilmuwan Muda Indonesia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zulfa Sakhiyya menerima dana dari Global Development Network.</span></em></p>Indonesian policymaking is predominantly informed by research with poor theoretical engagement, with no strong tradition of peer review and with legal threats to academic freedom.Inaya Rakhmani, Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Indonesia, Universitas IndonesiaZulfa Sakhiyya, Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Languages and Arts, Universitas Negeri Semarang., Universitas Negeri SemarangLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1212732019-09-02T12:47:42Z2019-09-02T12:47:42ZWest African states have a science and technology plan. But it’s going nowhere<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289706/original/file-20190827-184207-c7guw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The teaching of science and technology in ECOWAS states needs a boost</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fifteen West African countries are a year away from the target date of their 10-year policy plan on science and technology dubbed ECOPOST. But they have made very little progress on the goals they set themselves. </p>
<p>The plan is an essential part of the sub region’s development blueprint labelled <a href="http://araa.org/sites/default/files/media/ECOWAS-VISION-2020_0.pdf">Vision 2020</a>. This is a proposed road map for monetary integration, fostering public-private partnerships, improving governance and accelerating economic growth.</p>
<p>The integration plan envisages investment laws being harmonised. It also suggests the creation of a regional investment promotion agency. And all the 15 member states are urged to promote viable but efficient small and medium-sized enterprises. These would focus on technology and innovation as a path to increased productivity. </p>
<p>Yet this hasn’t been achieved. There are still <a href="https://www.ecowas.int/science-technology-and-innovation-experts-meet-on-way-forward-for-ecowas-regional-development/">challenges</a> with the commercialisation of research findings, technology transfers, stronger university-industry ties and boosting indigenous knowledge.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20421338.2019.1599575">reviewed</a> the science, technology and innovation policy plans among countries in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). I found that there appeared to be some political support in the design of policies. But not much else is in place. </p>
<p>West African member states have to take the necessary steps to develop national plans on science, innovation and technology. These will address the region’s economic and social challenges. This will be true irrespective of the creation of the proposed regional bloc.</p>
<h2>What the research discovered</h2>
<p>My review found that high-level political support seemed to be superficial and was in some cases totally absent. There were also variations with the establishment of institutional framework and science, technology and innovation plans. </p>
<p>Countries like Ghana and Nigeria had made inroads by carving a plan on science and technology. But the rest had employed an ad-hoc approach. Most have relied on a framework provided by the African Union and the ECOWAS as a major policy guide. </p>
<p>Another problem I identified was that government agencies charged with drawing up science, technology and innovation policy plans have consistently lacked the resources and enough power to push their agendas.</p>
<p>Moreover, recognition of the role of innovation to stimulate growth remains ambiguous. This explains why commitment levels remain low comparatively. </p>
<p>I also <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20421338.2019.1599575">discovered</a> that money was an issue. Finding funds to implement the policy on tax incentives is proving a daunting task because most countries are already burdened with the problem of low tax revenue.</p>
<p>This means that funds for science, technology and innovation aren’t available.</p>
<p>On top of this, venture capital is scarce or non-existent. It takes time for new inventions to come to fruition. Existing financial institutions don’t want to take the risk as many are already faced with liquidity and solvency challenges.</p>
<p>Political instability in the region is another hindrance to progress. Ivory Coast, Liberia, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, and Mali have all experienced instability. </p>
<p>But even stable states have failed. Take Ghana and Nigeria which have had instances where new governments have overlooked policies initiated by its predecessors.</p>
<p>Then there is education. Higher education institutions have mainly focused on teaching basic-science research which has a weak link to private enterprises. And institutions that were established from the outset to be the incubating grounds for entrepreneurs and inventors have taken to offering social science and business related programmes. </p>
<p>Examples <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20421338.2019.1599575">include</a>, the University of Science and Technology of Bamako in Mali, Africa Higher School of Information Technology and Communication in Ivory Coast, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Ghana and the Federal University of Technology in Nigeria. All have diluted programmes by offering more arts and social sciences than its pure and applied science programmes. </p>
<p>I also discovered that coordination among public organisations and parastatals in the design and implementation of policies is weak. Government agencies often elaborate their strategies but are not fully integrated and coordinated. This leads to unnecessary competition among these institutions. </p>
<h2>Dealing with these dilemmas</h2>
<p>Provision must be made for national evaluation and data sets to augment what is enshrined in the policy brief under the ECOPOST initiative. The success of this approach may be contingent on the sub-region being able to evolve specific tools for monitoring and assessing policies among member states. </p>
<p>Alternative sources of financing policies ought to be reconsidered. Tax incentives and havens for technology related businesses and building of entrepreneurial incubation points on innovation ought to be given priority. These will augment already existing initiatives such as export-led instruments. </p>
<p>In addition, governments in the region should partner with financial institutions to give priority to enterprises that are into product innovation, such as software or even IT related. And lastly, rolling out comprehensive universal education to secondary level across all vocational training centres could ignite and promote innovation and the entrepreneurial spirit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Ato Forson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Policies that will drive investment and change the structure of economies in the West African sub region are facing several challenges.Joseph Ato Forson, Lecturer of Banking and Finance, Akenten Appiah-Menka University of Skills Training and Entrepreneurial Development Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1203922019-08-02T12:22:41Z2019-08-02T12:22:41ZThe White House is upending decades of protocol for policy-making<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286518/original/file-20190731-186809-1835ta4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ford, Carter, George H.W. Bush and Clinton led four of the first administrations to fully embrace policy analysis.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Whether it’s <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/asylum-seekers-that-followed-trump-rule-now-dont-qualify-because-of-new-trump-rule">overhauling asylum procedures</a>, adding a question about <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-supreme-court-asked-for-an-explanation-of-the-2020-census-citizenship-question-119567">citizenship to the 2020 Census</a>, or rolling back <a href="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/06/17-automakers-ask-trump-to-hold-off-on-fuel-economy-rollback/">fuel standards</a>, a pattern has emerged when the Trump administration changes policies and creates new ones.</p>
<p>An announcement is made, media attention follows, the policy is formally proposed and finalized – generating more news coverage along the way. In many cases, judges suspend the new policy as <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/8/18076324/daca-supreme-court-trump-when-lawsuit">lawsuits work their way through</a> the system. <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/trumps-deregulatory-efforts-keep-losing-in-court-and-the-losses-could-make-it-harder-for-future-administrations-to-deregulate/">Unusually</a>, the Supreme Court often ends up determining whether the new policy can go into effect.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10841806.2000.11643493">All presidents since the 1960s</a> have embraced a process known as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/policy-analysis">policy analysis</a> that requires careful consideration and deliberation at every step of the way. In most cases, the public also gets to weigh in before a final decision is made. Based on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=R1CcxM8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">my research</a> about regulatory decision-making, I’ve observed a sea change in how Trump’s team is dealing with public policy compared to previous administrations.</p>
<h2>Administrative Procedure Act</h2>
<p>For the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F003231879404600211">first 150 years of this country’s history</a>, Congress, not presidents, decided on policies by enacting laws. </p>
<p>Starting <a href="https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/fda-basics/when-and-why-was-fda-formed">around 1900</a>, lawmakers began to delegate this task to independent agencies, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, and to government agencies under the president’s control. The pace of this shift stepped up <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-1/section-1/delegation-of-legislative-power">during the New Deal</a>, three decades later.</p>
<p>But because this arrangement can empower unelected bureaucrats, <a href="https://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2448&context=facpubs">questions about accountability</a> arose. Chief among them: Could decisions made by unelected officials that affected millions of people be allowed in a democracy? Requiring public participation and systematic analysis became routine and required for most policy changes as a result.</p>
<p>The mandate for public participation came first.</p>
<p>In 1946, Congress passed the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summary-administrative-procedure-act">Administrative Procedure Act</a>. It established <a href="https://www.justia.com/administrative-law/rulemaking-writing-agency-regulations/notice-and-comment/">rulemaking procedures</a> that required agencies creating new policies to alert the public, seek comments, and then consider that input before making most policies final. <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.2307/1073060">Many states followed suit</a> with their own versions of this measure.</p>
<h2>Silent Spring</h2>
<p>The environmental, worker safety, and other social movements that arose during the 1960s and early 1970s led Congress to create agencies like the <a href="https://archive.epa.gov/epa/aboutepa/birth-epa.html">Environmental Protection Agency</a> and the <a href="https://www.osha.gov/as/opa/osha-at-30.html">Occupational Safety and Health Administration</a>. Lawmakers then delegated authority to make policy to those new agencies regarding the issues within their purview.</p>
<p>For example, the public pressure for greater automobile safety in the wake of consumer safety activist Ralph Nader’s book “<a href="https://nader.org/books/unsafe-at-any-speed/">Unsafe at Any Speed</a>” prompted Congress to empower the Department of Transportation to more strictly regulate automakers. Scientist <a href="https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/rachel-carson">Rachel Carson’s</a> “<a href="http://www.rachelcarson.org/SilentSpring.aspx">Silent Spring</a>,” a seminal book that exposed the damage caused by pesticides, expedited the passage of <a href="https://environmentallaw.uslegal.com/federal-laws/clean-air-act/">numerous environmental statutes</a> in the <a href="http://www.environmentandsociety.org/exhibitions/silent-spring/overview">U.S. and elsewhere</a> and the creation of the <a href="https://ceq.doe.gov/">EPA during the Nixon administration</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286639/original/file-20190801-169696-b0micg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286639/original/file-20190801-169696-b0micg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286639/original/file-20190801-169696-b0micg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286639/original/file-20190801-169696-b0micg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286639/original/file-20190801-169696-b0micg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286639/original/file-20190801-169696-b0micg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286639/original/file-20190801-169696-b0micg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286639/original/file-20190801-169696-b0micg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alice Rivlin championed the practice of methodically assessing the potential impact of new policies and policy changes, while letting the public weigh in.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Financial-Meltdown/443af838982c4b7795573f72e68d3ebe/23/0">AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the wake of these new responsibilities, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23065473?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">starting with Gerald Ford</a>, all presidents, Republican and Democratic alike implemented and refined the requirements for analysis and input from the public prior to the unveiling of new policies. The analysis requirement championed by pioneers like <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/alice-rivlin-a-career-spent-making-better-public-policy/">Alice Rivlin</a>, who served as President Bill Clinton’s budget chief, has led to <a href="https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784714765">many successes</a>.</p>
<p>One example is when the <a href="https://archive.epa.gov/epa/aboutepa/lead-poisoning-historical-perspective.html">EPA decided in the 1980s</a> to require the <a href="https://web.mit.edu/ckolstad/www/Newell.pdf">removal of all lead from gasoline</a> because the analysis of costs and benefits showed how many lives would be saved or improved by its elimination. I relayed another success story in my <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2017.1286019">policy analysis textbook</a>: when the Department of Homeland Security scaled back its proposal for stringent requirements on <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2014/01/13/2014-00415/aircraft-repair-station-security">aircraft repair stations</a> in 2014. The Obama administration took this step after finding the costs to be too high for minimal security benefits.</p>
<p>These mandatory analyses forced agencies to use basic economic principles to calculate costs and benefits and to make the <a href="https://www.reginfo.gov/public/jsp/Utilities/EO_Redirect.myjsp">calculations available to the public</a>. </p>
<p>But this approach can also fail, at least partly because it can make decisions seem overly technocratic. That’s often the case when values are at stake, such as deciding whether protecting an <a href="https://law.utexas.edu/faculty/publications/1995-The-Science-Charade-in-Toxic-Risk-Regulation">endangered species</a> is worth increasing the cost of <a href="https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060092887">construction and infrastructure projects</a> – or blocking them altogether. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286641/original/file-20190801-169672-1ev0ibt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286641/original/file-20190801-169672-1ev0ibt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286641/original/file-20190801-169672-1ev0ibt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286641/original/file-20190801-169672-1ev0ibt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286641/original/file-20190801-169672-1ev0ibt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286641/original/file-20190801-169672-1ev0ibt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286641/original/file-20190801-169672-1ev0ibt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286641/original/file-20190801-169672-1ev0ibt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workers who make tunnels and toil in them are at risk for inhaling airborne silica, which can cause lung disease.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Associated-Press-Domestic-News-Nevada-United-St-/31e4ff58e3e6da11af9f0014c2589dfb/4/0">AP Photo/Laura Rauch</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What’s more, following the requisite steps can also mean the rule-making process takes not just years but decades. OSHA, for example, has taken decades to issue some <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1372818?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">rules that protect workers</a>. Its <a href="https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2016/03/the-regulation-that-took-four-decades-to-finalize-000078">industrial quartz</a> regulations, for instance, reportedly took 45 years to finish. Technically known as crystalline silica, the substance, when finely ground up for manufacturing or <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/updates/silicupd.html">blasted during construction</a>, can cause workers to contract <a href="https://www.lung.org/lung-health-and-diseases/lung-disease-lookup/silicosis/silicosis-symptoms-causes-risk.html">silicosis</a>, an incurable lung disease, and lung cancer.</p>
<h2>Shifting gears</h2>
<p>The Trump administration hasn’t declared that it’s doing anything different. It hasn’t, as far as I know, ever declared that “policy analysis is bad” or said, “Let’s ignore the public and ignore expertise.”</p>
<p>But the public record shows that <a href="https://www.epi.org/press/dol-scrubs-economic-analysis-that-showed-its-tip-pooling-rule-would-be-terrible-for-workers/">Trump’s team has either ignored</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/451095-clean-power-plan-repeal-shows-strengths-and-limits-of-policy">manipulated</a> or <a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-administrator-pruitt-proposes-cost-benefit-analysis-reform">subverted</a> the requirements for analysis and <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3049004">participation</a> on numerous policy actions that range from addressing climate change to the division of waiters'tips.</p>
<p>Whether a federal agency analyzes its decisions or asks for public input on them may seem like the ultimate in inside baseball. But processes make a difference. I believe that its failure to follow the long-established policy analysis process is a key reason why Trump administration is <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/trumps-deregulatory-efforts-keep-losing-in-court-and-the-losses-could-make-it-harder-for-future-administrations-to-deregulate/">losing many court battles</a>. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Shapiro does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The process known as policy analysis requires careful consideration and deliberation. In most cases, the public also gets to weigh in.Stuart Shapiro, Professor of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1181292019-06-04T13:21:40Z2019-06-04T13:21:40ZSouth Africa’s “new dawn” should be built on evidence-based policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277575/original/file-20190603-69059-1yjh9fh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Cyril Ramaphosa must prioritise evidence-based policy making.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GovernmentZA/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was elected on the promise of bringing a “<a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-2018-state-nation-address-16-feb-2018-0000">new dawn</a>” to the country. There are clear signs that he is trying to make this happen. He’s reconfigured his <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-cabinet-announcement-29-may-2019-0000">cabinet</a>. He’s also made several senior public sector <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2019-03-27-breaking-news-edward-kieswetter-appointed-new-sars-commissioner/">appointments</a>. These are designed to instil trust in key state institutions.</p>
<p>And, crucially, he has <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-has-a-new-presidential-advisory-unit-will-it-improve-policy-117128">reintroduced</a> a high-level policy coordination unit, the Policy Analysis and Researcher Services, within his office. </p>
<p>This is an encouraging move. It suggests that, despite a flurry of radical changes in the executive, a core strength of previous administrations will not be lost: South Africa’s evidence-based approach to policy development and implementation is set to continue.</p>
<p>Evidence-based policy making has been a feature in South Africa for over 20 years. This approach is valuable for several reasons. First, it allows policy makers to understand which policies and programmes work in achieving their objectives. It also highlights which policies don’t and should be reviewed or stopped. </p>
<p>Second, the evidence-based approach to policy making has value beyond policies in individual sectors. It can also decrease wasteful expenditure by focusing on the most cost-effective programmes. For example, the UK’s <a href="https://www.nice.org.uk/">National Institute for Health and Care Excellence</a> has for 20 years appraised and guided the country’s spending on health interventions and technologies. </p>
<p>Finally, it creates enhanced accountability and transparency in the state’s decision-making processes. That’s because systems used in this approach allow policy makers to <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2017/04/how-policymakers-prioritize-evidence-based-programs-through-law">openly declare</a> what types of information and data they used in reaching particular decisions.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa’s “new dawn” will require a rigorous evidence-base of what works to guide high-level policy planning and design.</p>
<h2>Policy examples</h2>
<p>There are several examples of successful evidence-based policy interventions in South Africa. Arguably, the most high profile example relates to the country’s fight against HIV/AIDS. A civil society group, the Treatment Action Campaign, <a href="https://tac.org.za/category/about/">advocated</a> for a more evidence-based approach to the management and care of HIV/AIDS. The subsequent policy change is estimated to have prevented <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1002469">1.72 million deaths</a> between 2000 and 2014.</p>
<p>South Africa’s groundbreaking social grants system is another evidence-based policy success story. Its design and implementation have been rigorously evaluated in multiple studies. These have found significant positive effects on <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09765239.2017.1336304">poverty reduction</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-social-policy/article/child-support-grants-in-south-africa-a-pathway-to-womens-empowerment-and-child-wellbeing/9ED6B4F0D81D8F61BB2C29CD27C42F58">women’s empowerment</a>, among other outcomes.</p>
<p>While policy design has been solid, implementation has not always been successful. This is because while policy design largely happens at the national government level, implementation tends to be handled at a provincial or municipal level. These tiers must be strengthened to ensure better implementation.</p>
<h2>Successes so far</h2>
<p>Despite shortcomings in implementation, South Africa is a continental leader in evidence-based policy making. Its approach to evaluating and measuring policies’ effects is implemented across government departments through the <a href="https://www.dpme.gov.za/Pages/default.aspx">National Evaluation System</a>. The system has achieved international acclaim. Several <a href="https://www.twendembele.org/">other African countries</a> have used it as an inspiration from which to design similar systems. </p>
<p>By 2018, South Africa’s system had assessed <a href="https://evaluations.dpme.gov.za/images/gallery/NEP%202018-19_2020%20-2021.pdf">R110 billion of government expenditure</a>. By doing this, it was able to indicate the effectiveness of various policies and programmes. This is hugely important in a climate of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/south-africa-s-budget-deficit-seen-wider-than-treasury-forecasts">limited funds</a>.</p>
<p>The Department of Environmental Affairs is a useful example of transparency and openness in policy making. It develops dedicated <a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/mediarelease/deahosts3rdbiodiversityresearchandevidenceindaba">research and evidence strategies</a>. These are used to tell stakeholders what types of information the department needs to make key policy decisions. </p>
<p>The Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, meanwhile, is systematically collecting data from citizens themselves regarding policy implementation and service delivery. This is done through its <a href="https://www.dpme.gov.za/keyfocusareas/cbmSite/Pages/default.aspx">citizen-based monitoring programme</a>.</p>
<p>Another area of evidence-based policy making where South Africa has performed well relates to training. It is important that public servants be empowered to draw on relevant information and evidence without having to outsource this critical input for policy development. The Department of Public Service and Administration runs training programmes for all public servants. This is complemented by the University of Cape Town, which offers <a href="http://www.mandelaschool.uct.ac.za/gsdpp/courses/evidence_based_policy_making_implementation">executive training</a> on the topic for senior policy makers. </p>
<p>In addition, the Department of Science and Technology (which has now been merged with the Department of Higher Education and Training) supports <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/event/workshop/eipm-water-energy-food-health">a range</a> of evidence-based policy making <a href="http://sasdghub.org/about/">initiatives</a>.</p>
<p>All of this, along with a few other initiatives, has meant that South African civil servants are increasingly able to develop and maintain rigorous evidence-bases to inform their policy decisions. </p>
<h2>Build and adapt</h2>
<p>In the coming months, President Ramaphosa’s administration must maintain what has worked so far in evidence-based policy making. The focus should not shift to selected expert opinions and external consultant reports. After all, the country boasts <a href="https://www.dpme.gov.za/keyfocusareas/Socio%20Economic%20Impact%20Assessment%20System/Pages/default.aspx">many</a> robust, <a href="https://www.dpme.gov.za/news/Pages/DPME-to-launch-Evidence-Mapping-tool.aspx">proven systems</a> within the civil service <a href="https://www.dpme.gov.za/publications/20%20Years%20Review/Pages/default.aspx">already</a>.</p>
<p>The new administration can draw on and expand these existing efforts to build a civil service that is skilled at policy making in complex and rapidly changing local, national, and regional contexts. This is key to building a <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-cabinet-announcement-29-may-2019-0000">modern developmental state</a> that’s capable of implementing the National Development Plan, a blueprint for the next decade.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurenz Langer works for the Africa Centre for Evidence (ACE), University of Johannesburg. ACE has received funding from South African government departments to support evidence synthesis and evidence-based policy-making in a number of policy areas. ACE also has received a number of external research grants from international donors such as the Hewlett Foundation and overseas research councils. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Promise Nduku works for the Africa Centre for Evidence (ACE), University of Johannesburg. ACE has received funding from South African government departments to support evidence synthesis and evidence-based policy-making in a number of policy areas. ACE also has received a number of external research grants from international donors such as the Hewlett Foundation and overseas research councils.</span></em></p>Ramaphosa’s “new dawn” will require a rigorous evidence-base of what works to guide high-level policy planning and design.Laurenz Langer, Senior Researcher, University of JohannesburgPromise Nduku, Researcher, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1068132018-11-13T12:50:03Z2018-11-13T12:50:03ZLife in South Africa’s economic hub is improving – but big challenges remain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245202/original/file-20181113-194491-105ms01.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Gauteng City-Region is home to a quarter of South Africa's population.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Momberg</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than 14 million people live in South Africa’s economic hub, the Gauteng City-Region. That’s 25% of the country’s population. </p>
<p>A lot of media reporting and public discussion about Gauteng is negative. Service delivery protests <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2017-10-24-gauteng-accounts-for-most-service-delivery-protests-research/">are common</a>, high <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=11632">crime rates</a> worry residents and the province’s economy is <a href="http://www.gauteng.gov.za/government/departments/provincial-treasury/Documents/Socio-Economic%20Reveiw%20and%20Outlook%202018.pdf">under pressure</a>.</p>
<p>These challenges are real, and play a big role in people’s lives. But new research from the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) suggests there’s a more nuanced story to tell about Gauteng. Data collected for the observatory’s fifth <a href="http://www.gcro.ac.za/research/project/detail/quality-of-life-survey-v-201718/">Quality of Life survey</a> (2017/18) reveal that, in many ways, Gauteng residents’ lives are improving. </p>
<p>Overall quality of life in Gauteng is getting better. An index based on the data, measuring quality of life out of 10, has climbed slowly but steadily since 2011. In addition, in this survey people showed greater tolerance, as well as a much stronger sense of community.</p>
<h2>The research</h2>
<p>The GCRO is an independent research organisation, which generates data and analysis to help inform development and decision making in the Gauteng City-Region. It is a partnership between the provincial government, organised local government, the University of the Witwatersrand, and the University of Johannesburg.</p>
<p>The survey involved 24 889 adult residents of Gauteng, with a minimum of 30 respondents in each of the province’s 529 wards. </p>
<p>The latest survey collected a wealth of complex data. Respondents answered more than 240 questions, about a third of which were unchanged from previous iterations of the survey. In this way, we are able to gain insights into how the province has changed over time – and can see that there have been significant, often positive shifts in how people view the quality of their lives. </p>
<p>Of course, problems remain: more respondents report experiencing crime, and a growing proportion don’t believe that trust is possible across race groups.</p>
<p>The latest data offer a vital resource for understanding Gauteng’s multi-faceted challenges. It is also a useful way for the government, policy makers, academics, civil society and ordinary people to start coming up with creative solutions.</p>
<h2>Quality of life in the province</h2>
<p>The research measures quality of life by more than just material factors like household income and access to basic services. As with <a href="http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/">similar</a> <a href="https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/surveys/european-quality-of-life-surveys">major</a> <a href="http://www.qualityoflifeproject.govt.nz/">international</a> projects, less material, more subjective factors – opinions and feelings about governance, community, family and individual well-being– are also considered. </p>
<p>A total of 58 variables were selected to generate an overall Quality of Life index. These covered ten dimensions: global life satisfaction, family, community, health, dwelling, infrastructure, connectivity, work, security and socio-political attitudes. </p>
<p>This index provides a simple but strongly multi-dimensional score out of 10, where “0” indicates lowest quality of life and “10” the highest quality of life.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245240/original/file-20181113-194491-1b35jn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245240/original/file-20181113-194491-1b35jn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245240/original/file-20181113-194491-1b35jn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245240/original/file-20181113-194491-1b35jn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245240/original/file-20181113-194491-1b35jn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245240/original/file-20181113-194491-1b35jn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245240/original/file-20181113-194491-1b35jn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245240/original/file-20181113-194491-1b35jn7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Quality of Life index scores over time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Gauteng’s Quality of Life index score has shown sustained improvement over the past four iterations of the survey. It has risen from 6.02 in 2011 to 6.30 in 2017/18. This suggests that overall quality of life in Gauteng is improving over time.</p>
<h2>Protest, crime and safety</h2>
<p>The proportion of respondents who participated in a protest in the previous year has doubled from 4% in 2013/14 to 8% in 2017/18. A quarter of respondents reported protest in their community in the past year. Of these protests, 90% involved some form of violence. Most were related to frustrations around service provision - particularly electricity.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245241/original/file-20181113-194500-1gc3937.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245241/original/file-20181113-194500-1gc3937.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245241/original/file-20181113-194500-1gc3937.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245241/original/file-20181113-194500-1gc3937.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245241/original/file-20181113-194500-1gc3937.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245241/original/file-20181113-194500-1gc3937.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245241/original/file-20181113-194500-1gc3937.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245241/original/file-20181113-194500-1gc3937.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protest participation over time by municipality.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A quarter of all respondents were victims of crime in the past year. That’s an increase from one in five in 2015/16. Additionally, 44% of respondents felt crime in their area had worsened over the past year, up from 41% in 2015/16. </p>
<p>Despite these negative results, 81% of respondents reported feeling safe in their homes, an encouraging rise from 75% in 2015/16. The proportion of respondents who felt that crime was the biggest problem in their community dropped from 37% in 2015/16, to 32% in 2017/18. </p>
<h2>Economic concerns</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, national economic challenges and growing inequality also affected Gauteng’s residents. Satisfaction with the government’s efforts to grow the economy dropped to 19% (2017/18) from an already low 23% in 2015/16. </p>
<p>Nearly one in four respondents lived in a household where someone – an adult or a child – had skipped a meal in the past year because there wasn’t enough money for food. This is a substantial increase over previous years, and one felt disproportionately by the province’s poorest residents.</p>
<p>Satisfaction with government itself, and basic services like water, sanitation and energy, had increased since 2015/16. However, satisfaction with key social services had fallen. For instance, 65% of those who used public health care were satisfied with the services they received in 2015/16. This dropped to 57% in 2017/18. </p>
<p>In terms of public education, 9% of respondents with school-going children reported that they had no local public school. Of respondents who did have local public schools, 75% reported that they were satisfied with them.</p>
<h2>Social cohesion and tolerance</h2>
<p>Positive trends included respondents being substantially more trusting of their communities. Tolerant attitudes are spreading: the proportion of respondents who believed violence towards gays and lesbians is acceptable has dropped to 6% from 14% in 2015/16. </p>
<p>The proportion who believed all foreigners should be sent home has dropped from 23% to 17%. This is particularly encouraging given the province’s history of <a href="http://www.migration.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Feb-2017_Xenowatch-Special-Report-1.pdf">xenophobic violence</a>. </p>
<p>However, a greater proportion of respondents believed that black people and white people would never trust each other – up from 58% (2015/16) to 64% (2017/8). </p>
<h2>Scope for improvement</h2>
<p>Inequality is one area that needs to be examined: life appears to be improving most rapidly for the more advantaged members of society. White people, and individuals with high incomes, have the highest quality of life – and their quality of life appears to be improving most rapidly. </p>
<p>Multi-sectoral work is needed to tackle this and other issues, and to ensure that Gauteng offers a good life to everyone who calls it home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106813/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia de Kadt works for the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO).
The GCRO receives core funding from the Gauteng Provincial Government, as well as in-kind support from the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Johannesburg. The Quality of Life Survey was funded from the GCRO's core grant, with additional support from the City of Ekurhuleni and the City of Johannesburg.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexandra Parker works for the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO). The GCRO receives core funding from the Gauteng Provincial Government, as well as in-kind support from the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Johannesburg. The Quality of Life Survey was funded from the GCRO's core grant, with additional support from the City of Ekurhuleni and the City of Johannesburg.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christina Culwick works for the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO). The GCRO receives core funding from the Gauteng Provincial Government, as well as in-kind support from the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Johannesburg. The Quality of Life Survey was funded from the GCRO's core grant, with additional support from the City of Ekurhuleni and the City of Johannesburg.</span></em></p>The latest data offer a vital resource for understanding Gauteng’s multi-faceted challenges.Julia de Kadt, Senior Researcher, Gauteng City-Region ObservatoryAlexandra Parker, Researcher of urban & cultural studies, Gauteng City-Region ObservatoryChristina Culwick Fatti, Senior researcher, urban sustainability transitions, environmental governance and resilience, Gauteng City-Region ObservatoryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1036802018-10-12T06:13:14Z2018-10-12T06:13:14ZWhat it takes for Indonesia to create, share and use knowledge to grow its economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238894/original/file-20181002-85611-18o5vt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=98%2C44%2C5743%2C3319&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In a technology-driven and interconnected world, the speed of creation and dissemination of knowledge makes it even more central to economic growth that it was fifty years ago. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For middle-income countries, like Indonesia, to move away from unsustainable industries and exports - such as extractive industries - towards a knowledge economy, the government needs to consider and make important policy choices. </p>
<p>A knowledge economy is one based on the creation, sharing, and use of knowledge to enhance growth and development. <a href="http://la.utexas.edu/users/hcleaver/330T/350kPEESchultzInvestmentHumanCapital.pdf">Human capital theory</a> puts knowledge at the centre of the development process during the 1960s. Today, in a technology-driven and interconnected world, the speed of creation and dissemination of knowledge makes it even more central to economic growth than it was 50 years ago. </p>
<p><a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOUTHASIAEXT/Resources/223546-1206318727118/4808502-1206318753312/slknowledgechapter1.pdf">According to the World Bank</a>, successful knowledge economies are built on public policies that support science and technology research, innovation, education, and lifelong learning.</p>
<p>These are also the foundations of the knowledge systems that provide policymakers with the evidence and research needed to inform policy decisions, and budget allocations to shift the economy towards a stronger knowledge base. </p>
<p>In Indonesia, as well as other middle-income countries, policymakers struggle to develop these knowledge systems and capabilities. There’s a lack of political will to support science and technology research. Many public servants are yet to be trained in developing evidence-based policies. At the same time, there are limitations in the regulatory frameworks. </p>
<p>Additionally, international development programs tend to focus on the capacity to produce research by think-tanks and policy research organisations rather than government agencies’ capabilities to demand and use knowledge to inform policy. </p>
<p>I am the co-editor and co-author of <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-981-13-0167-4">Knowledge, Politics and Policy Making in Indonesia</a>. One of the points we make in the book is that the knowledge produced and shared by think-tanks and public/private research organisations is necessary. But it is not sufficient to contribute to designing policies that enhance the social and economic potential of Indonesia. Strong capability to demand and use knowledge is as important.</p>
<p>Our research shows that the Indonesian public sector has some challenges to overcome. </p>
<h2>Public sector workforce</h2>
<p>Data from the <a href="https://www.kasn.go.id/publikasi/laporan-tahunan/94-laporan-kinerja-tahunan/106-laporan-kinerja-komisi-aparatur-sipil-negara-tahun-2016">National Civil Service Commission</a> show that in 2016, just over 6% of Indonesia’s 4.5 million civil servants – including over 1.7 million teachers, as well as health workers and other technical roles – have a master’s degree, while 0.3% have a doctorate. </p>
<p>Some ministries have a high concentration of advanced degrees (for example, the Ministry of Education and Culture, the National Development Planning Agency and the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs). But overall within the civil service there is a research skills gap. This makes it hard for various government agencies and administrations to independently identify what kind of research they need to support policymaking and assess the research and studies they commissioned. </p>
<h2>A structured policymaking process</h2>
<p>In Indonesia, the two main policy processes taking place at the national level are the long- and medium-term development planning and the development of laws and regulations. </p>
<p>All development planning is the responsibility of the Ministry for National Development Planning/National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas). Overall, the planning process defines the background work needed to inform the policy process.</p>
<p>The staff of Bappenas draw on background studies that are conducted internally or commissioned externally to inform the development planning process. However, the funds for these studies are limited and have to be used within the financial years on a set number of studies that cannot be changed. Due to this regulatory rigidity, government agencies rely on international donors to fund research and studies that they have the resources to fund but not the flexibility to procure. </p>
<h2>Pre-defined research formats</h2>
<p>With regard to legislation, the formulation of laws and regulations requires the use of academic papers (naskah akademik) in all policy formulation processes. These papers follow a tightly specified format that outlines the legal need to address the problem, the theoretical and empirical background, and an analysis of existing laws and regulations. Conversely, existing regulations do not place a sufficiently strong emphasis on designing research and evaluation to assess which development programmes and policies work, which do not, and why. </p>
<h2>More knowledge or better capabilities to use knowledge?</h2>
<p>Indonesia has cut the poverty rate by more than half since 1999, to 10.9% in 2016. Its economy is projected to become the 4th largest by 2045. The government is designing strategies to move towards a greater emphasis on knowledge and innovation as pillars of economic growth. </p>
<p>In this near future, <a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/International-Inequalities/events/Tracking-the-Rise-in-Global-Economic-Inequality">government agencies are likely to be flooded</a> by data, research and analysis coming from development programmes, projects, and multilateral organisations. Moreover, data innovation exponentially increases the amount of data and analysis that government agencies can produce through digital technologies. </p>
<p>What matters for policymakers is the capability to identify and acquire the knowledge they need, at the right time. These skills and capabilities will become increasingly important as middle-income countries such as Indonesia develop they knowledge economies and enter the fourth industrial revolution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arnaldo Pellini tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>The Indonesian public sector has some challenges to overcome to be able to design better policies.Arnaldo Pellini, Member of EduKnow Research Group at the University of Tampere (Finland), Tampere UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/992192018-08-14T13:06:56Z2018-08-14T13:06:56ZHow soil scientists can do a better job of making their research useful<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229036/original/file-20180724-194137-ifup5x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scientists must remember that farmers are focused on the best return from their inputs with little risk as possible.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dominic Chavez/World Bank/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Soil is a vital part of the natural environment. It supports the growth of plants, is a habitat for many different organisms and is at the heart of nearly all agricultural production. It also plays an integral role in countless other ecosystem services like water and climate regulation. </p>
<p>Despite this, <a href="http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-degradation-restoration/en/">soil degradation</a> is widespread. Soils rarely get the policy attention they deserve. There is little incentive for farmers to adopt practices that conserve soil. In the longer term soil degradation costs farmers and countries money, reducing farm productivity and capacity to adapt to climate change, and causing environmental damage such as poor water quality and silting of dams from soil erosion. </p>
<p>One of the major barriers when it comes to governments and policymakers taking soil science seriously is the approach of scientists themselves.</p>
<p>There are three main ways in which soil science has failed its stakeholders. The first relates to over generalising recommendations beyond the conditions for which they were developed. The second has to do with uncertainty: scientists don’t properly communicate the risks inherent in their recommendations. And the third is about “translating” findings into economic terms so that farmers and policy makers can work with them.</p>
<p>Luckily, there are solutions, as is being shown through the work being done by the <a href="http://africasoils.net/">Africa Soil Information Service</a>, which has started using a different approach to research in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria and Tanzania.</p>
<h2>Dealing with variation</h2>
<p>For starters, soil investigations don’t do enough to address variability. Soils vary enormously from place to place, even in different parts of the same farm, and taking recommendations developed in one place and applying them in another doesn’t work. Scientists tend to generalise recommendations made from soil studies conducted at too few locations. This approach doesn’t work.</p>
<p>Sometimes soil scientists forgo field experiments entirely and use models instead. This is understandable; field experiments are expensive and models can tackle the problem of sparse data. For instance scientists will use them to predict soil erosion from basic soil properties, like clay and organic matter content. </p>
<p>But these models are being applied beyond the geographical region for which they were developed. An example is the Universal Soil Loss Equation, which was developed in the US but is now widely applied <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235936792_Empirical_reformulation_of_the_Universal_Soil_Loss_Equation_for_erosion_risk_assessment_in_a_tropical_watershed">without being adapted</a> to different contexts. </p>
<h2>Representing uncertainty</h2>
<p>Once soil surveys or soil management experiments are done, scientists rarely highlight the uncertainty associated with the data they collect. Worse still, often the data used to generate recommendations <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-2743.2012.00453.x">can’t be traced</a> because of poor data curation.</p>
<p>This has important negative consequences. For one, this makes it impossible for others to learn how to improve on recommendations. Secondly, ignoring uncertainty in the recommendations masks the risk of using them. A farmer won’t know the chances of getting less than the expected response to a recommended treatment or even a negative response. </p>
<h2>Translating knowledge</h2>
<p>Crucially, soil scientists rarely go the extra mile to translate their knowledge into forms that can be integrated into economic decision making of farmers and policy makers.</p>
<p>Farmers are focused on getting the best return from their inputs with as little risk as possible. Policymakers are primarily concerned with making optimal investments. They want to know which interventions best meet multiple objectives given the trade-offs, like between farm productivity and environmental impacts. </p>
<p>But soil scientists rarely do the work needed to translate their knowledge into economic terms that can be integrated into such decision making. They’ve also not taken a systematic approach to pinpoint the decision dilemmas facing soil users and policymakers, and analysing the areas where improved soil science knowledge would help to improve outcomes. </p>
<p>For example, few soil scientists are aware of approaches used in <a href="https://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/article/decision-focused-agricultural-research/">decision sciences</a> that allow the calculation of the value of information, which tells you what further information you need to collect and how much it is worth spending to get it.</p>
<p>Yet, in a lament I often hear at soils conferences, scientists want to know “Why are policy makers not listening to us?” </p>
<p>How can these problems be solved and gaps between scientists, farmers and policy makers be bridged?</p>
<h2>Seeking solutions</h2>
<p>Soil scientists should adopt a “public health surveillance” style approach to <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/75871">making recommendations</a> which accounts for variation by using statistical sampling procedures and so provides more sound inferences. </p>
<p>First the area of interest is defined, then soils are studied at random, pre-defined locations. The results can then be safely inferred for the whole area. In public health, this approach is used to develop diagnostic tests that are stratified on sub-populations – like age or gender. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://africasoils.net/">Africa Soil Information Service</a> has started using this approach in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria and Tanzania. Its scientists are producing digital maps of soil properties that are directly useful for guiding recommendations, as opposed to inferring them from soil classes. </p>
<p>Using a surveillance approach <a href="https://www.unccd.int/actions/ldn-target-setting-programme">could lead</a> to fundamental changes in policy. For example, instead of prioritising resources towards restoring hot spot areas that are severely degraded, it may focus policies towards adopting more sustainable soil management practices everywhere. This is a parallel to the shift in public health from treating the seriously afflicted towards a population-wide preventive approach. </p>
<p>Soil scientists should also maintain databases of the original data used to generate recommendations and highlight uncertainties. There are new, accessible <a href="https://www.bayesserver.com/docs/introduction/bayesian-networks">tools</a> that can help with this. These allow for the integration of expert knowledge, and its uncertainty, in a way that makes assumptions clear. An added bonus would be if these tools were made accessible on mobile phones so that farmers could enter local observations and obtain updated estimates.</p>
<p>Finally, soil scientists must work more closely with quantitative decision analysts, soil users and policy makers to focus research on the critical information required to improve economic decision making.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99219/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Shepherd works for the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF). This work has been funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Finnish Government, and supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land & Ecosystems</span></em></p>Soil scientists have rarely gone the extra mile to translate their knowledge into forms that can be integrated into economic decision making.Keith Shepherd, Principal Soil Scientist, World Agroforestry Centre, Center for International Forestry Research – World Agroforestry (CIFOR-ICRAF)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/985602018-07-04T04:03:49Z2018-07-04T04:03:49ZMarket v government? In fact, hybrid policy is the best fit for the 21st century<p>Politics remains mired in ideological preconceptions of what is optimal, often landing us with bad policy. Too often we see a simplistic and false dichotomy between partisan claims that markets are the best policy tool because they are efficient, or that government should lead because this ensures equity. This is a major drag on our progress and prosperity because today’s policy challenges typically require hybrid policy solutions: sophisticated combinations of government and market tools that promote equity and efficiency at the same time.</p>
<p>The 20th century can be seen as a process of trial and error through which we came to understand where governments or markets were more appropriate. Libertarian, free-market capitalism collapsed in the Great Depression. The welfare state, in which government sensibly intervened to overcome market failures in sectors like health care, <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/labor-saving-technology-by-dani-rodrik-2015-01?barrier=accesspaylog">saved capitalism from itself</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-for-profits-must-adapt-as-one-arm-of-governments-three-sector-solutions-72971">Not-for-profits must adapt as one arm of government's 'three-sector solutions'</a>
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<p>But, far from being a perfect system, the social democratic welfare states of the post-war years terminated in the horrors of stagflation: rising unemployment and inflation amid torpid economic growth. To overcome this, structural adjustment was needed to bring markets back into areas of policy where they had a comparative advantage. </p>
<p>Welfare states rolled back tariffs, price controls, subsidies and other distortions. They deregulated many markets to encourage open competition and the productivity improvements it brings. </p>
<p>This resulted in prolonged economic growth around the world from the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis. It also accelerated growth in poor countries throughout Asia, dramatically reducing poverty and improving living standards.</p>
<h2>Taking account of winners and losers</h2>
<p>A key factor in the long-term success of structural adjustment was whether the governments prosecuting it considered the compensation of losers from reform.</p>
<p>France and Japan had a strong focus on potential losers from change. Consequently, structural adjustment never took place. The state continued to dominate the policy space, and the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5a6c1646-f6c0-11e7-88f7-5465a6ce1a00">French</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-42154516">Japanese</a> economies stagnated.</p>
<p>In America and Britain, structural adjustment took place under neoliberal regimes (Reagan and Thatcher). These were ideologically committed to markets even where government had a clear role to play. Growth took off, but the gains overwhelmingly went to the privileged. Marginalised citizens saw their prosperity continue to flat-line.</p>
<p>As growth was not invested in mobility in the form of schools, hospitals and infrastructure, the losers from change were never reactivated. Today large portions of American society struggle with <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/americas-two-most-troubled-sectors-health-and-education/">limited health and education</a>. They have low productivity and low wages: a waste of human resources. And, as we’ve seen in recent elections, they are very angry about it.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-gross-inequality-and-crushed-hopes-have-fed-the-rise-of-donald-trump-62837">How gross inequality and crushed hopes have fed the rise of Donald Trump</a>
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<p>In Australia, Denmark and Canada, among others, structural adjustment was undertaken in a way that reaped the benefits of liberalisation while compensating losers from change. These countries put themselves on a long-term path that ensured both competition and opportunity by exploiting complementarities between markets and government.</p>
<h2>The hybrid policy paradigm</h2>
<p>Competition and opportunity are mutually beneficial. Competition in the absence of opportunity results in incumbents reaping the benefits of open markets. This is not because they are the most meritorious, but because they are in the right position. The resources of the underclass go underutilised, which is both unfair and inefficient. </p>
<p>Similarly, egalitarian policy settings without open competition lead to the dominance of insiders like belligerent unions at the expense of outsiders. This is evident in staggering levels of <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Unemployment_statistics#Youth_unemployment">youth unemployment in France</a> and <a href="https://japantoday.com/category/features/opinions/temp-workers-helping-or-hurting-japans-future">workforce casualisation in Japan</a>. </p>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.routledge.com/Hybrid-Public-Policy-Innovations-Contemporary-Policy-Beyond-Ideology/Fabian-Breunig/p/book/9780815371809">Routledge (2018)</a></span>
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<p>Australia’s structural adjustment was begun in the twilight years of the Fraser government, prosecuted in earnest by Hawke and Keating and wound down by Howard. It has brought about several decades of growth with barely a budge in <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-why-its-so-hard-to-say-whether-inequality-is-going-up-or-down-81618">our Gini coefficient</a> (a measure of inequality). We distil some of the lessons of this period in our new <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Hybrid-Public-Policy-Innovations-Contemporary-Policy-Beyond-Ideology/Fabian-Breunig/p/book/9780815371809">book on hybrid policy design principles</a>.</p>
<p>Australia’s structural reform was largely driven by a range of hybrid policies. These included the HECS system of higher education financing, our mixed public and private health system, and our unusually <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-qanda-is-australia-among-the-lowest-taxing-countries-in-the-oecd-59229">low-taxing</a> but <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/the-budget-fairness-and-class-warfare/">highly targeted welfare system</a>. The result is a quality social safety net without unnecessary drag on the economy. </p>
<p>Each of these policies brings to bear the strengths of governments and markets in tandem. This hybrid approach overcomes their respective weaknesses and ensures outcomes that both sides of politics can feel proud of.</p>
<p>The HECS system replaced a prohibitively expensive free-tuition university system. Most university graduates go on to earn middle-class incomes, so why should taxpayers who didn’t attend university subsidise this? The HECS system includes a small subsidy to price in the broader benefits to the nation associated with education that go beyond the private benefits to the individual student.</p>
<p>Ironically, including some tuition charges actually enhanced equality of opportunity by making it easier to scale up university admissions. </p>
<p>Having the government act as the provider of loans to cover tuition fees overcomes the adverse selection issues that result in private markets undersupplying student loans, as in the United States. Some academically borderline students are a risky bet for private loans because they might default. But, as a group, many of these students would graduate if given the chance and earn higher incomes. They would then pay more tax. </p>
<p>Through the HECS system, the government provides loans to all of these students. And, via those higher tax payments, it is then able to recover some of its losses from defaults. This efficiently promotes equality of opportunity.</p>
<p>Finally, making loan repayments income-contingent ensures equity, especially for at-risk individuals like mothers who don’t return to the workforce for many years.</p>
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<h2>Grounded in evidence</h2>
<p>It is important to understand that hybrid policy designs are grounded in a rich body of theory and evidence. Our empirical understanding of the impacts of incentives, institutions and regulations on economic behaviour has grown tremendously in recent decades. So, too, has our ability to monitor the impact of individual policies and institutional or regulatory settings. </p>
<p>We no longer need to rely on ideological conviction when choosing between different policy tools because we actually know what works in a lot of cases. We can further reduce our need to rely on conviction by attaching evidence-collection measures to policies as they are implemented. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/randomised-control-trials-what-makes-them-the-gold-standard-in-medical-research-78913">Randomised controlled trials</a>, for example, are being widely utilised to test the efficacy of different policies. This ensures poor policy designs are identified and discarded while effective ones are scaled up. </p>
<p>Well-designed policy implementation combined with detailed administrative data can allow us to evaluate programs even in the absence of randomised controlled trials. We have a wealth of tools at our disposal.</p>
<p>Politicians can sometimes fear evidence in public policy because of its ability to disprove their sacred truths. But the effect of evidence-based public policy is not to eject normative issues from governance. Instead, it focuses normative debate on normative questions like the appropriate balance between efficiency and equity. That leaves technical and factual matters to be decided on the basis of knowledge rather than belief.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mounting-housing-stress-underscores-need-for-expert-council-to-guide-wayward-policymaking-84196">Mounting housing stress underscores need for expert council to guide wayward policymaking</a>
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<h2>Challenges call for renewed reform</h2>
<p>Australia is in desperate need of a fresh round of hybrid policy reform. By the end of the 20th century we had exhausted the gains from marginally improving where government and markets are used individually in policy settings. </p>
<p>The challenges we face today include making the most of the internet and automation, and responding to climate change, tax reform and urban and demographic change, to name a few. All require hybrid thinking to understand and solve.</p>
<p>Australia was a pioneer of this in the past. Many of our systems remain at or near world best even as we have lost focus on policy reform. We can reclaim our leadership position by applying evidence-based hybrids.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98560/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From the 20th-century process of policy trial and error, the nations that married the strengths of markets and government came out ahead.Mark Fabian, Postgraduate student, Australian National UniversityRobert Breunig, Professor of Economics and Director, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/905452018-01-29T08:27:51Z2018-01-29T08:27:51ZWhy health research rarely influence policy in Indonesia<p>There is a disconnect between what health researchers in Indonesia are investigating and what the government aims to achieve in solving the country’s health problems. </p>
<p>With a population of more than 250 million people, Indonesia faces a wide range of <a href="http://www.who.int/gho/countries/idn.pdf?ua=1">health issues</a>. </p>
<p>In Papua, the country’s easternmost province, reports say at least <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-papua/indonesia-sends-military-to-help-fight-health-crisis-in-papua-idUSKBN1F60LX">61 children have died</a> from malnutrition and measles. The government has sent military and health personnel to deal with the crisis in the remote area. </p>
<p>Indonesia is also still struggling with high death rates of mothers and newborn babies during birth. Indonesia failed to meet its Millennium Development Goal (MDG) to reduce the maternal mortality ratio by 75%. In 2015 there was <a href="http://www.depkes.go.id/resources/download/pusdatin/profil-kesehatan-indonesia/profil-kesehatan-Indonesia-2015.pdf">305 deaths from 100,000 live births</a>, while the neonatal death rate is 14 per 1,000 live births. </p>
<p>In their <a href="http://www.depkes.go.id/resources/download/info-publik/Renstra-2015.pdf">five-year strategic plan (Renstra) for health</a>, the government has aimed to increase the responsiveness of the country’s health system and to reduce the number of maternal and newborn deaths. </p>
<p>To meet these targets, the government should base the policies to tackle this problem on evidence gathered from research. The Ministry of Health
has tried to increase the use of evidence from its research arm, the National Institute of Health Research and Development (Balitbangkes). </p>
<p>But <a href="https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/223386-increasing-use-of-research-findings-in-i.pdf">my research shows</a> that researchers at the institute do research independent to the Health’s Ministry’s program objectives.</p>
<h2>Lack of engagement</h2>
<p>Currently, program managers and policy makers at the Ministry of Health do not rely on researchers. They also do not request any research findings to back up their decision making. </p>
<p>NIHRD researchers are expected to provide evidence-based studies on health that decision makers can use in making policies. But, a 2017 external review found most of the 30 research proposals submitted by the institute’s researchers for 2018 and 2019 funding were not related to any specific Ministry of Health programs. </p>
<p>The ministry used very few of the findings from more than 1300 studies that the institute produced between 2011 and 2015. Most research reports were <a href="http://www.ksi-indonesia.org/in/news/detail/mendayagunakan-penelitian-untuk-meningkatkan-kualitas-kebijakan-kesehatan">kept on the library shelves.</a></p>
<p>A quick review of selected publications in the <a href="http://journal.fkm.ui.ac.id/kesmas"><em>Kesmas: National Public Health Journal (2013-2017)</em></a> show how research topics seem to be chosen independent of any Ministry of Health program targets or goals. </p>
<p>There are many health researchers outside of the NIHRD. But, the academic community in general has limited engagement in policy debates so they are not heavily involved in providing evidence for either policy or practice. </p>
<p>This is partly caused by their host institution’s rigid rules which limit research to conceptualising existing theoretical frameworks, mapping the decision-making landscape in a specific location, or challenging conventional public health assumptions.</p>
<h2>What needs to change</h2>
<p>At the moment, researchers and policy makers or program managers are not comfortable working together because they don’t understand how to apply the concept of “evidence-based research”. </p>
<p>Operations Research, which is a practical method that applies analytical models to make better decisions, can be used to connect researchers and policy makers or program managers. The key in using this method is to utilise measures that have been determined by program managers or health planners as the expected result and other socio-demographic factors as the reasons for the results. </p>
<p>For example, the Ministry of Health has a program called the Healthy Archipelago (Nusantara Sehat) program to deploy around 6,300 health practitioners to Indonesia’s remote regions such as borders or outer islands. This program aims to strengthen health services in remote areas, such as Papua. </p>
<p>At the moment, there is no monitoring on program implementation. The Health Ministry may request researchers from the NIHRD to investigate how well the program is doing by using Operations Research, using the Ministry’s targets as the study’s dependent variables.</p>
<p>While researchers should be aware of areas and programs that are high on the government’s priority list, policy makers also to be better in communicating their needs to researchers through greater involvement in research conceptualisation and conduct. They should share with the researchers what their priorities and program goals are. </p>
<p>This way, government staff can help medical researchers to achieve the results we all desire.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90545/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meiwita Budiharsana tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Health research in Indonesia are mostly kept in library shelves instead of being used in policymaking.Meiwita Budiharsana, Lecturer, Faculty of Public Health, Universitas IndonesiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/888322018-01-10T11:39:02Z2018-01-10T11:39:02ZRejection of subsidies for coal and nuclear power is a win for fact-based policymaking<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201407/original/file-20180109-36016-izojvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coal stockpile at Valley Power Plant, Milwaukee, Wis.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/aun6Mc">Michael Pereckas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Energy Secretary Rick Perry has repeatedly expressed concern over the past year about the reliability of our national electric power grid. On Sept. 28, 2017, Perry <a href="https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/09/f37/Secretary%20Rick%20Perry%27s%20Letter%20to%20the%20Federal%20Energy%20Regulatory%20Commission.pdf_">ordered</a> the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to revise wholesale electricity market rules to help ensure “… a reliable, resilient electric grid powered by an ‘all of the above’ mix of generation resources.” Perry’s proposal included an implicit subsidy to owners of coal and nuclear power plants, to compensate them for keeping a 90-day fuel supply on-site in the event of a disruption to the grid.</p>
<p>On Jan. 8, FERC issued a statement, supported by all five commissioners, <a href="https://elibrary.ferc.gov/idmws/file_list.asp?document_id=14633130">terminating</a> Perry’s proposal. The commissioners held that paying generators to store fuel on-site would only benefit some fuel types. And although coal and nuclear plants are retiring in large numbers, commissioners were not persuaded that this was due to unfair pricing in power markets.</p>
<p>In my view, FERC made an appropriate and well-grounded decision. The commission opted to gather more information and examine many possible approaches to improving reliability, instead of rubber-stamping a directive that had not been fully vetted. The commission’s action is a good example of the kind of evidence-based policymaking that Americans should expect from the federal government.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>What makes the power system reliable?</h2>
<p>There is no question that our electricity supply is changing rapidly. As of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3">2016</a>, over one-third of U.S. electricity generation at utility-scale facilities came from natural gas, followed by coal at 30 percent and nuclear power at nearly 20 percent. Renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydropower provide nearly 15 percent, up from just 8.5 percent in 2007. </p>
<p>Technology advances and cost decreases for renewables, particularly solar and wind, are the key factors driving their growth. Meanwhile, <a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2017/10/06/the-decline-of-coal/">coal</a> and <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/kcvrkom2z1d4cef/Whats_Killing_Nuclear-MIT_CEEPR_WP%202018-001.pdf?dl=0">nuclear</a> plants, which are less economically competitive, are retiring at high rates.</p>
<p>As the eastern United States emerges from a <a href="https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-01-01-arctic-record-cold-outbreak-forecast-midwest-east-south-early-january">record-setting deep freeze</a>, we all can appreciate the importance of reliable energy supplies. Indeed, 2017 was a <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2017-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-historic-year">record-breaking year for weather and climate disasters</a>, from hail and tornadoes to three major hurricanes striking U.S. soil. </p>
<p>Many of these events disrupted vital power supplies. Notably, as of late December nearly half of Puerto Rico’s electricity customers – more than 600,000 people – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/officials-nearly-half-of-puerto-rico-clients-without-power/2017/12/29/f8836754-ece2-11e7-956e-baea358f9725_story.html?utm_term=.dc9cd0469d56">still lacked electric power</a> in the wake of Hurricane Maria.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Perry’s proposal assumed that storing extra fuel on-site at generating plants would make the grid more resilient against disasters that could interrupt fuel deliveries. But resilience is not just a matter of having fuel close at hand.</p>
<p>Recognizing this, FERC’s order included a new study of the resilience of the “bulk power system” – the part of the electric grid that includes generation and transmission facilities, which are interconnected across regions. If this system is disrupted in any way, the impacts can be felt across wide areas. </p>
<p>The commission directed operators that manage regional power networks across the nation to submit information within 60 days on the resilience of the system, and to advise on whether FERC needs to take additional actions to improve it. This approach makes clear that the FERC commissioners want more evidence before they make any calls for actions such as subsidizing marginal fuel supplies.</p>
<h2>Look at the evidence</h2>
<p>Whether FERC commissioners know it or not, their approach follows many recommendations set forth recently by a national <a href="https://www.cep.gov/">Commission on Evidence-Based Policymaking</a>. This panel was created in 2016 through <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/1831">legislation</a> co-sponsored by House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator Patty Murray of Washington. Its task was to examine how federal agencies use data, research and evaluation to build evidence, and to strengthen those efforts in order to make better policies.</p>
<p>“You always hear people in Washington talk about how much money was spent on a program, but you rarely hear whether it actually worked. That has to change,” <a href="https://www.speaker.gov/press-release/evidence-based-policy-commission-gets-to-work">Ryan said</a>, when the commission was established. “This panel will give us the tools to make better decisions and achieve better results.”</p>
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<span class="caption">New York City during a major winter storm, Jan. 4, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/PGroup-RW-MediaPunch-IPx-A-ENT-New-York-USA-IPX-/3f0dffa67cd44a0c954ca76715e5e764/66/0">RW/MediaPunch/IPX</a></span>
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<p>In its <a href="https://www.cep.gov/cep-final-report.html">final report</a> issued on Sept. 7, 2017, the commission noted the importance of securing and making accessible data which can be used for effective policymaking. To most casual observers, this may seem straightforward. Why would you want to change a policy, which could affect many consumers and businesses, without first looking at the data and understanding all of the potential impacts of a change? </p>
<p>In reality, data can be disputed (think “fake” data), and policies can be motivated by political ideology. Policy choices could become detached from the evidence and fail to incorporate the pros and cons or seek consensus. </p>
<p>In this case, however, FERC’s 5-0 decision shows that the commissioners agreed on their course, and it appears that policymaking based on evidence won the day. This decision had the potential to affect millions of electricity customers, as well as power markets and the environment. FERC deserves congratulations for putting evidence before action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ellen Hughes-Cromwick is a member of the National Association for Business Economics. She served as chief economist at the U.S. Department of Commerce from November 2015 to January 2017.</span></em></p>The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has rejected a Trump administration proposal to reward coal and nuclear power plants for storing fuel on-site, as a way to make the power system more reliable.Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Senior Economist and Interim Associate Director of Social Science and Policy, University of Michigan Energy Institute, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/795662017-06-22T20:03:24Z2017-06-22T20:03:24ZWho’s responsible? Housing policy mismatched to our $6 trillion asset<p>Does the Australian government have the policy, organisational and conceptual capacity to handle the country’s A$6 trillion housing stock? We ask this question in a newly released <a href="http://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/284">research report</a>. The answer is critically important to both household opportunity and prosperity, and to the management of our largest national asset. </p>
<p>Australians’ wealth is overwhelmingly in our housing. As of late 2016, our housing stock was <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiEyLHdhNDUAhVLopQKHfDTDaQQFggmMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnews%2Flatest-news%2Fvalue-of-housing-tops-6-trillion%2Fnews-story%2F53b1df5b4fb42c02070b1de41a75e66d&usg=AFQjCNGNQGz0Pznj8ac-f1Wp1And4mk19g">valued at $6 trillion</a>. That’s nearly double the combined value of <a href="http://www.asx.com.au/about/corporate-overview.htm">ASX capitalisation</a> and <a href="https://www.superannuation.asn.au/resources/superannuation-statistics">superannuation funds</a>. </p>
<p>Clearly, the way the housing sector is managed has huge implications for household prosperity and opportunity. The public debate <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/housing-affordability-7820">about high house prices</a>, for example, reveals a gnawing anxiety that the distribution of housing as an asset has shifted too far in favour of a <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/submissions/housing-and-housing-finance/inquiry-into-home-ownership/proportion-investment-housing-relative-owner-occ-housing.html">growing class of rentiers</a> rather than households. </p>
<p>Housing also has clear national economic implications. This relates both to its scale as an asset, and to the way it provides shelter for those most in need where that need is clear. </p>
<p>Any misallocation of housing to low-productivity uses is potentially a major drag on the economy. This necessarily requires a wide understanding of productivity. </p>
<h2>How is Australian housing policy framed?</h2>
<p>We asked whether there is a clear systematic policy framework through which the Australian government understands the dynamics of the housing system and its contribution to productivity. We might expect such a framework to be clear and prominent given recent public and policy <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-housing-issues-should-the-budget-tackle-this-is-what-our-experts-say-73751">attention to housing questions</a>. </p>
<p>To better understand the Commonwealth’s approach, we surveyed recent major housing policy reviews by the government. We assessed how housing was conceived in terms of its economic and social dynamics, its influence on productivity, and the role of policy in shaping these effects. </p>
<p>There is <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2017/March/Housing-Inquiries-Reports">no shortage of documentation</a> to appraise. Our sample included the <a href="https://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/Content/Content.aspx?doc=html/home.htm">Henry Review of Taxation</a> (2010), the <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.au/Policy-Topics/PeopleAndSociety/completed-programs-initiatives/NHSC">National Housing Supply Council report series</a> (2009-2013), the <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/regulation-benchmarking-planning">Productivity Commission inquiry into planning</a> (2011), the <a href="http://apo.org.au/system/files/30907/apo-nid30907-49131.pdf">COAG Report on Housing Supply and Affordability Reform</a> (2012), the <a href="http://fsi.gov.au/publications/final-report/">Financial System Inquiry</a> (2014), the <a href="http://apo.org.au/system/files/56122/apo-nid56122-55041.pdf">Federation Report</a> on housing and homelessness (2014), and (albeit not a government report) the <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/Affordable_housing_2013/Report">Senate Inquiry into housing affordability</a> (2015). </p>
<p>We also prepared an inventory of housing policy instruments operated by governments in Australia to understand how these were conceived within the policy reviews. We found 13 policy instruments that influence housing systems. These operate across housing, economic and fiscal policy and at multiple tiers of government. </p>
<h2>A picture of incoherent policymaking</h2>
<p>We were surprised to discover that few of the major policy reviews provided a systematic framework for understanding the economic role of housing. </p>
<p>There is thin evidence, at best, that these inquiries constructed or articulated a systematic conceptual understanding of the links between the housing system and economic productivity. </p>
<p>Even the Productivity Commission’s inquiry into planning and zoning, which focused on housing affordability, did not offer a conceptual framework for understanding the influence of planning regulaton on urban or national productivity. </p>
<p>Our review of these documents further shows there is no coherent framework articulating how policy objectives link to instruments and their effects. Housing policy, despite the $6 trillion value of housing, seems strangely incoherent. Australia doesn’t currently <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Parliamentary_Handbook/Current_Ministry_List">have a minister for housing</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/policycheck-negative-gearing-reform-58404?sr=1">debate over negative gearing</a> during 2015 and 2016 partly demonstrates our contention. During this period we counted at least six reports by non-government organisations articulating a view on the purpose and effect of negative gearing. Nowhere could we identify a government policy document articulating a clear, extended and analytically based position on this policy explaining its purpose and effects. </p>
<p>Our search for an explanation of these gaps in policy was not exhaustive. But we did assess the current administrative orders for housing within the Australian government.</p>
<p>Responsibility for understanding housing issues is divided. The Department of Social Services is responsible for social housing, rent assistance and home ownership. The Treasury has responsibility for housing supply policy.</p>
<p>Elsewhere, the <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/">Reserve Bank</a> deals with monetary policy and financial stability. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority <a href="http://www.apra.gov.au/AboutAPRA/Publications/Pages/MAP-AUS-FSF.aspx">APRA</a> manages macroprudential policy. And the Tax Office (<a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjdvtLUkNDUAhVMHpQKHYNUD1IQFghCMAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ato.gov.au%2FGeneral%2FProperty%2F&usg=AFQjCNF5VWNO3vUaeOnwBODTfiD4c2wHQA">ATO</a>) administers tax concessions. The Productivity Commission offers occasional advice on housing.</p>
<p>Yet there appears to be no obvious co-ordinating point in government that oversees housing. No one authority is responsible for formulating a coherent systematic understanding of housing and its effects on productivity and Australia’s economy or society generally. The <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.au/Policy-Topics/PeopleAndSociety/completed-programs-initiatives/NHSC">National Housing Supply Council</a> established in 2009 partly filled this role, but was abolished in 2013. </p>
<p>Further dispersion appears via COAG, which is convened by the Commonwealth government. COAG periodically marks out a housing issue, such as land supply, for discussion with state governments and to formulate policy recommendations. But COAG communiques are typically short political statements and not analytically founded. </p>
<p>Within state governments, responsibilities for different aspects of housing are typically spread across several agencies.</p>
<h2>What needs to be done?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175095/original/file-20170622-31189-ovome4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175095/original/file-20170622-31189-ovome4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175095/original/file-20170622-31189-ovome4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175095/original/file-20170622-31189-ovome4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175095/original/file-20170622-31189-ovome4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175095/original/file-20170622-31189-ovome4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175095/original/file-20170622-31189-ovome4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175095/original/file-20170622-31189-ovome4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The fractured approach to housing policy appears to be at least partly a result of deliberate political decisions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/red-broken-wall-earthquake-29239183?src=A0ixvfy22xi1jnF7OGIAcg-1-13">vovan/from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our report demonstrates weaknesses in Australia’s approach to housing and housing policymaking. There is evidence this is deliberate. For example, the Coalition members’ <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/Affordable_housing_2013/Report/d01">minority response</a> to the 2015 Senate inquiry into affordable housing rejected almost all of its policy recommendations. Many of these would rectify some of the deficits we have identified.</p>
<p>The weak formal coordination in housing policy contrasts with other sectors such as energy, defence, biosecurity, disability, heritage, drugs and road safety, among others. Each has a dedicated national strategy articulating policy objectives, problem conceptualisation and coordination of policy instruments.</p>
<p>It is doubtful that housing is less significant to the nation, economically or socially, than these sectors. </p>
<p>We recommend that the Australian government reflects on the position of housing within the architecture of government. The $6 trillion national asset that housing represents deserves much better understanding of its dynamics and effects on the national economy, including productivity.</p>
<p>We argue that Australia needs a federal minister for housing, a dedicated housing portfolio, and an agency responsible for conceptualising and co-ordinating policy. The current fragmented, ad-hoc approach to housing policy seems poorly matched to the scale of the housing sector and its importance to Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jago Dodson is named on projects for which funding is currently received by RMIT University from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, and the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Sinclair receives funding from AHURI (The Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Dalton receives funding from AHURI (The Australian Urban Research Institute) for research, including the project upon which this article is based.</span></em></p>New research finds a state of confusion when it comes to Australian government policymaking on housing, despite its huge economic and social significance.Jago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversitySarah Sinclair, Lecturer in Economics, RMIT UniversityTony Dalton, Emeritus Professor, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/716272017-01-31T19:07:20Z2017-01-31T19:07:20ZListen up: a plan to help scientists get their research heard by decision-makers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154898/original/image-20170131-13230-eohv20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=556%2C750%2C1809%2C1302&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's important to get the research across to and understood by decision-makers.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Rawpixel.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many scientists are keen to communicate research they believe can help inform the decisions people make, from public opinion to the policy of our governments.</p>
<p>But the will of scientists to abandon intellectual “<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/science-communication-vital-in-posttruth-world/news-story/5edb913aa122bb91b4c8ef8a793682df">ivory towers</a>” does not in itself ensure a more prominent role for science in any decision-making. </p>
<p>Consider the appointment of a <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/trump-picks-climate-change-sceptic-scott-pruitt-to-lead-epa/news-story/96e8292aa0789ff09b1586630b1acb30">climate change sceptic</a> and an <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/exclusive-qa-robert-f-kennedy-jr-meeting-trump-proposed-vaccine-commission">anti-vaccination proponent</a> to the new White House administration of US President Donald Trump.</p>
<p>Does this signify a prioritisation of emotions, personal beliefs and social media savviness above facts? If so, then ensuring a role for research evidence in decision-making may be one of the greatest challenges facing the science community.</p>
<h2>A risky and uncertain world</h2>
<p>In July 2016, we attended a <a href="https://www.science.org.au/think-tanks/risky-world">think tank</a> with a group of early- and mid-career peers, at the Australian Academy of Science (<a href="https://www.science.org.au/">AAS</a>) in Canberra.</p>
<p>One aim was to better understand and improve on how scientists from many disciplines can communicate their research to decision-makers, including any risk and uncertainty.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154169/original/image-20170125-23854-15lve9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154169/original/image-20170125-23854-15lve9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154169/original/image-20170125-23854-15lve9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=845&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154169/original/image-20170125-23854-15lve9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=845&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154169/original/image-20170125-23854-15lve9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=845&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154169/original/image-20170125-23854-15lve9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1062&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154169/original/image-20170125-23854-15lve9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1062&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154169/original/image-20170125-23854-15lve9h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1062&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cover of the report from our think tank discussions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.science.org.au/files/userfiles/events/documents/think-tank-risk-recommendations.pdf">Australian Academy of Science</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The AAS has today released a detailed report, <a href="https://www.science.org.au/files/userfiles/events/documents/think-tank-risk-recommendations.pdf">Living in a Risky World</a>, from that think-tank meeting. We have compiled a <a href="http://www.drquigs.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/CONVERSATION-ARTICLE_V3.docx">technical summary</a> and here are some of highlights.</p>
<h2>Which evidence to consider?</h2>
<p>All scientific research is subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. This can arise from a number of issues such as incomplete knowledge or variability in the phenomena being researched.</p>
<p>A goal of research is to reduce any uncertainties through study and experimentation, and to improve the accuracy by which uncertainties are defined.</p>
<p>Even the most scientifically informed decision-making contains positive and negative <a href="http://www.pmcsa.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/PMCSA-Risk-Series-Paper-1_final_11May2016.pdf">risks</a> resulting from the uncertainty.</p>
<p>The extent to which this uncertainty influences decision-making is often unclear and difficult to evaluate.</p>
<p>For example, published uncertainties in climate change projections have been used to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/climate-change-communication-uncertainty">rebuke and discredit scientific evidence</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-climate-uncertainty-is-no-excuse-for-doing-nothing-32924">delay policy action</a>.</p>
<p>Uncertainties associated with <a href="http://www.sehn.org/ppfaqs.html">environmental health risks</a> and future <a href="http://www.chchplan.ihp.govt.nz/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Natural-Hazards-Part.pdf">earthquake risks</a> have been used to justify health, engineering and land-use policy developments of a precautionary nature.</p>
<p>Reporting on the status of the Great Barrier Reef in the past has omitted any form of uncertainty.</p>
<p>The importance of including an uncertainty assessment has now been <a href="https://www.qao.qld.gov.au/reports-parliament/managing-water-quality-great-barrier-reef-catchments">recognised</a> in advice to the Queensland government. But it remains unclear how best to quantify the uncertainty and communicate it in a way that helps decision-making.</p>
<h2>The challenge for scientists</h2>
<p>Scientists see it as best practice to characterise and include any uncertainties in their research when publishing in peer-reviewed journals. But the scientific community lacks consensus about the most effective way to communicate science and uncertainty to decision-makers.</p>
<p>For example, are <a href="https://theconversation.com/confused-about-your-cancer-risk-from-eating-meat-heres-what-the-figures-mean-49888">absolute</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/laquila-charges-leave-earthquake-scientists-on-shaky-ground-10301">relative probabilities</a> more effective when publicly communicating risk? Should uncertainties be included in weather forecasts, bushfire trajectories or tsunami inundation predictions?</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.science.org.au/think-tanks/risky-world/group-4">discussions</a> revealed that our risk-communication experiences and perspectives varied across our diverse fields of expertise.</p>
<p>This included our use of language, our target audiences, the types of risks we communicate (economic versus life and death) and the cultures and protocols of our host institutions.</p>
<p>But we also found consensus. We do not live in a “<a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/post-truth">post-truth</a>” world where science evidence is offered but not considered. Nor do we live in an “<a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/ivory_tower">ivory tower</a>” world where science evidence is needed but not offered. </p>
<p>Rather, we live in a world with increasing diversity and complexity in decision-making. This world offers <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-has-embraced-pseudoscience-and-its-deceptive-tactics-in-a-post-truth-world-70134">real challenges</a>. </p>
<p>However, it also provides opportunities for scientists with diverse skills and priorities to communicate and engage with decision-makers. This <a href="http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/five-modes-of-science-engagement.html">includes those who</a> acquire, interpret and communicate scientific data, through to those who engage in science arbitration and advocacy.</p>
<h2>How to improve communication with decision-makers</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.science.org.au/files/userfiles/events/documents/think-tank-risk-recommendations.pdf">our report</a> we recommend a new plan for scientists to adopt for any evidence-based communication with decision-makers.</p>
<p>A key element of this plan is to develop a common language on risk and uncertainty communication. This will ensure lessons learned may be more easily translated across distinct scientific disciplines.</p>
<p>We recommend that scientists explicitly state the motivations that underlie their scientific experimentation and modelling processes. That way decision-makers can better understand the role of the science in assisting with any decision they make.</p>
<p>We also recommend that both scientists and decision-makers keep a record of how research evidence and uncertainty were considered in any decision-making scenarios. This should include whether the research was asked for or offered, how the evidence and uncertainties were communicated, and how all this was received and considered.</p>
<h2>The need for feedback</h2>
<p>If the research did influence any decision, then it will be important to know how. If the research was not used in the decision-making process, it will be important to understand why.</p>
<p>Was it because <a href="https://theconversation.com/lost-in-translation-confidence-and-certainty-in-climate-science-17181">uncertainties</a> were not understood, inadequately represented, or exceeded tolerable thresholds?</p>
<p>Perhaps the <a href="http://yieldwise.agmodelling.com/#/">models themselves</a> were not easy for decision-makers to understand? This could mean modifications are needed to increase their utility. </p>
<p>Were other societal, political or fiscal factors prioritised? Are all of these factors able to be objectively analysed and justified?</p>
<p>And what approaches are available to scientists who conclude that research has been unjustly used by decision-makers?</p>
<p>In our experience there is a large variability in the way decision-makers provide documentation on how scientific advice they received actually informed the decision-making process. </p>
<p>Both the public and the media have a role to play in encouraging these forms of documentation.</p>
<p>The uptake of any science evidence and the understanding of scientific uncertainty by decision-makers remains sparsely documented. This includes any influence of public and media communications, structured science communication workshops, involvement in science advisory panels, and other science engagement strategies. </p>
<p>So hopefully our plan for a more unifying language across the science community, and a concerted effort to document communication experiences, should help scientists who want to contribute their work to any decision-making processes that may guide future policies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71627/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Quigley receives funding from the Australian Research Council and New Zealand Earthquake Commission. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrien Ickowicz is a Research Scientist with CSIRO Data61 - Australia</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antonio Verdejo-Garcia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Ian Potter Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Galton-Fenzi receives funding from the Australian Antarctic Science Programme. He is affiliated with the Australian Antarctic Division, the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, and the Antarctic Gateway Partnership, the University of Tasmania.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris White receives funding from various Tasmanian State Government research funding programs, Wine Australia and the Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Gerard Pembleton receives funding from Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsty Kitto receives funding from the Australian government's Office for Learning and Teaching and the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kyra Hamilton receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, beyondblue, Royal Life Saving Society - Australia, and Menzies Health Institute Queensland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Bennetts receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Lindsay receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Minerals Research Institute of Western Australia and the Department of Mines and Petroleum, Western Australia</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Roberts is a Research Scientist with IBM Research - Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patricia Durance receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, New Zealand. She is affiliated with the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (The AusIMM). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Petra Kuhnert is a Research Statistician with CSIRO Data61 - Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gery Geenens and Madhura Killedar do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Research comes with risk and uncertainty so getting the right message across to the people who matter can be a challenge for scientists. A new plan out today hopes to change that.Mark Quigley, Associate professor, The University of MelbourneAdrien Ickowicz, Research scientist, Data61Antonio Verdejo-Garcia, Associate Professor on Addiction Studies, Monash UniversityBen Galton-Fenzi, Senior Scientist, Australian Antarctic DivisionChristopher J White, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Engineering, University of TasmaniaGery Geenens, Senior Lecturer in Statistics, UNSW SydneyKeith Gerard Pembleton, Senior Research Fellow in Agricultural Systems Modelling, University of Southern QueenslandKirsty Kitto, Visiting Research Fellow in Data Science, Queensland University of TechnologyKyra Hamilton, Senior Lecturer in Health and Applied Psychology, Griffith UniversityLuke Bennetts, Lecturer in applied mathematics, University of AdelaideMadhura Killedar, Adjunct Lecturer, Monash UniversityMark Lindsay, Research Fellow in Geoscientific Modelling, The University of Western AustraliaMelanie Roberts, Research Scientist in Applied Mathematical Modelling, The University of MelbournePatricia Durance, Adjunct Research Associate, Monash UniversityPetra Kuhnert, Statistician, Data61Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/642962016-08-23T04:38:17Z2016-08-23T04:38:17ZHow to get a better bang for the taxpayers’ buck in all sectors, not only Indigenous programs<p>A <a href="https://www.cis.org.au/publications/research-reports/mapping-the-indigenous-program-and-funding-maze">report</a> released today by the Centre for Independent Studies (CIS) has drawn attention to the lack of quality evaluations being conducted on Indigenous programs. </p>
<p>The report identified 1082 Indigenous-specific programs delivered by government agencies, Indigenous organisations, not-for-profit NGOs and for-profit contractors. It found 92% have never been evaluated to see if they are achieving their objectives.</p>
<p>While it oversteps in some regards, this report raises a very important point: we don’t really know what works if we don’t check. That’s a lesson that applies to all areas of public policy spending, not just Indigenous affairs.</p>
<h2>A bit of perspective</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cis.org.au/app/uploads/2016/08/rr18.pdf">report</a> asserts:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Indigenous-specific funding is being wasted on programs that do not achieve results because they are not subject to rigorous evaluation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is a contradiction. With no rigorous evaluation, how could we know if it’s a waste or not? The point should be that we mostly don’t really know if those programs are improving outcomes. But a lack of evaluation is indeed a major problem, and we can do better.</p>
<p>The report only addresses Indigenous programs but it’s important to note the issues raised are not confined to Indigenous programs. I was not entirely surprised by these findings because I have seen similar patterns in other sectors, such as education spending. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w22130.pdf">paper</a> published by the US’ <a href="http://www.nber.org/">National Bureau of Economic Research</a> reviewed the evidence from randomised evaluations on the impact of education programs (not confined to Indigenous programs) in developed countries. Of the 196 experiments it identified, only two were conducted in Australia.</p>
<p>If we were to withdraw funding from all programs conducted by Australian governments whose impact has not been verified through rigorous evaluation, then I don’t think we’d have many programs left.</p>
<p>That said, it may be that rigorous evaluation for Indigenous programs in Australia is of extra importance. In other areas (take education or design of the income support system), it is perhaps easier to piggy-back on the rigorous evaluations conducted in other countries; taking evidence “off-the-shelf” from overseas.</p>
<p>The CIS’ report is correct to draw attention to the paucity of rigorous evaluations. It feels good to spend money on Indigenous programs, just as it feels good to spend money on all worthy causes. But greater investment on evaluating those programs would almost certainly be money well spent, as long as the evaluations are of high quality.</p>
<h2>Not all evaluations are created equal</h2>
<p>We need to be very aware that not all evaluations are equally compelling. There can be a temptation for government departments to conduct tokenistic, low-quality evaluations that tick-the-box for a program being evaluated. </p>
<p>Many evaluations rely only on asking program participants or workers if they believe that a program has had a favourable impact. While such work has merit, it doesn’t actually measure impact. We don’t rely only on such evidence in medicine. Nor should we for social policy. </p>
<p>Such evaluations are usually inconclusive, which has the added benefit of not risking embarrassment to the minister championing the program. </p>
<p>We have made tentative steps toward fixing this problem. The Productivity Commission convened a roundtable of experts in 2009 on the topic of <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/supporting/strengthening-evidence">Strengthening Evidence-Based Policy in the Australian Federation</a>.</p>
<p>In his <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/supporting/strengthening-evidence/13-chapter10.pdf">submission</a> to the roundtable, Andrew Leigh – then a professor of economics at the Australian National University, now the shadow assistant treasurer – outlined what he called a “hierarchy of evidence” that would help policymakers better understand what social programs were actually worth the money and effort:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135085/original/image-20160823-18734-1d5s430.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135085/original/image-20160823-18734-1d5s430.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135085/original/image-20160823-18734-1d5s430.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135085/original/image-20160823-18734-1d5s430.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135085/original/image-20160823-18734-1d5s430.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135085/original/image-20160823-18734-1d5s430.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135085/original/image-20160823-18734-1d5s430.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135085/original/image-20160823-18734-1d5s430.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/supporting/strengthening-evidence/13-chapter10.pdf">Evidence-based policy: summon the randomistas? Andrew Leigh, 2009</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Leigh’s proposed hierarchy itself may need more scrutiny, debate and refinement. My view is that studies relying only on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matching_(statistics)">matching</a> or <a href="http://www.statsoft.com/Textbook/Multiple-Regression">multiple regression</a> are a lower grade of evidence than genuine <a href="https://theconversation.com/reimagining-nsw-tackling-education-inequality-with-early-intervention-and-better-research-57483">quasi-experimental work</a>.</p>
<p>The CIS report recommends:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>All programs receiving taxpayer funding should be subject to independent evaluations. At the same time, governments and organisations should cease collecting data that does not make a valuable contribution towards improving the level of knowledge about the effectiveness of programs.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I think we need to go further and ensure that we conduct the best possible evaluations. This includes conducting randomised trials as part of the mix. </p>
<p><a href="https://thenumbercruncherdotorg.wordpress.com/2013/02/03/poor-indigenous-economics-part-i/">Nicholas Biddle</a>, a quantitative social scientist at the Australian National University, has asked whether the challenges facing programs targeting Indigenous people in remote Australia may have similarities to those targeting poverty in developing countries.</p>
<p>If so, then we should consider drawing on the considerable experience of the leaders in such evaluations, such as the <a href="https://www.povertyactionlab.org/">Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab</a>, a network of professors who argue for policy informed by scientific evidence. Importantly, the Indigenous community must be involved in every step.</p>
<p>The CIS plans to follow up their report with a detailed review of the evaluations that have been conducted of Indigenous programs. </p>
<p>Whatever it finds, it is clear that more prominence should be given to understanding the variation in the quality of evidence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Siminski has previously received funding from the NSW Department of Education. </span></em></p>A new report highlights how little we know about what works and what doesn’t when it comes to publicly-funded Indigenous programs. It’s a similar story in other policy areas – but we can do better.Peter Siminski, Associate Professor of Economics, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/592652016-05-19T17:57:52Z2016-05-19T17:57:52ZThe science of using research: why it starts with the policymaker<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123171/original/image-20160519-30717-1j5e4w6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Piles of evidence don't make any difference if they're not being used to develop policy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Governments all over the world <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS">invest</a> large sums of public money into producing knowledge that helps them understand their countries’ complex socioeconomic issues. This knowledge, in the form of research, can be used to formulate potential solutions through public policies and programmes. </p>
<p>But it’s not enough just to produce research. It must also be considered and drawn from when policies are being created. However, a range of barriers might prevent policymakers from accessing and using evidence in their work. To understand the use of evidence, then, it’s important to understand the policymaker. Who is she? What are her incentives and biases? What is her professional and institutional context? </p>
<p>This is important for two reasons. The first is that it’s wasteful for governments to fund research – with taxpayers’ money – that’s just going to gather dust. The second is that governments may implement programmes and policies that have no impact or are actually detrimental to the very people they’re supposed to help. This isn’t unprecedented: a programme run in the US to <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/3658560?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">scare juvenile delinquents “straight”</a> was implemented even though researchers had shown that it had, on average, previously caused more harm than merely leaving these young people be.</p>
<p>A new global <a href="http://eppi.ioe.ac.uk/cms/Portals/0/PDF%20reviews%20and%20summaries/Science%202016%20Langer%20report.pdf?ver=2016-04-23-122500-213">systematic review</a> conducted by the <a href="http://eppi.ioe.ac.uk/cms/">Evidence for Policy and Practice Information and Co-ordinating Centre</a> has shed some light on the important issue of getting more scientific about the practice and study of research use. Our report, “Science of using science: researching the use of research evidence in decision-making”, combined insights from 36 existing systemic reviews that reported on 91 different research-use interventions. It identifies the most effective strategies for increasing and strengthening how research is used to build public policy.</p>
<h2>What the review found</h2>
<p>A golden thread throughout the review findings is the importance of getting serious about approaching research use from a policymaker’s perspective. For example, we found that programmes supporting practical research-use skills, such as appraising the quality of a study, were effective. Likewise, targeting and tailoring the communication of research findings to policymakers’ preferences yielded positive results. This could be achieved by framing research findings according to policymakers’ mode of decision-making – such as being risk or loss averse. </p>
<p>We also found that policymakers place an opportunity cost on every interaction. They’ll forgo and sacrifice other commitments or work to engage with researchers. If those interactions don’t come with tangible benefits, the policymaker is unlikely to bother making time for researchers again.</p>
<p>Each policymaker will have her own networks of people with whom she engages and shares information. So if researchers engage with the same group of policymakers again and again, there is a risk that the research they share never spreads through the system. Researchers need to target policymakers who can act as bridges between, for instance, different government departments. This creates more effective networks through which evidence can flow.</p>
<p>Lastly, the review identified how important it is to facilitate evidence use through organisational processes. This could involve supervising how the evidence is used and giving policymakers the tools they need to apply evidence effectively.</p>
<h2>The South African context</h2>
<p>We were particularly interested in how these findings can be applied in South Africa, as this is where we conduct our work through the <a href="http://www.africaevidencenetwork.org/">Africa Evidence Network</a>.</p>
<p>South Africa is one of only a handful of countries that has created government structures that institutionalise the use of research evidence in policymaking. Government <a href="http://www.dpme.gov.za/publications/Strategic%20Plan%20and%20Annual%20Reports/DPME%20Strategic%20Plan%202015-2020.pdf">policy</a> is organised according to a framework of 14 key outcomes that all departments must work towards. A range of evidence is used to assess government’s progress and the effects of its policies and programmes on contributing to the national key outcomes. </p>
<p>South Africa is in a rare position: there’s a high-level demand for evidence-informed decision-making. The country’s cabinet meetings often <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/16821/">discuss</a> impact evaluation reports. Organisational structures and processes are being put in place to nurture this demand.</p>
<p>This approach is yielding results. A number of national policies have already been systematically informed by the best available research evidence. These include the <a href="http://www.gov.za/services/child-care-social-benefits/child-support-grant">child support grant</a> and the <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2011/Confronting%20youth%20unemployment%20-%20Policy%20options.pdf">youth wage subsidy</a>.</p>
<p>But, as <a href="http://www.aejonline.org/index.php/aej/article/view/145">a survey</a> has shown, the use of evidence is still far from common decision-making practice. Government demand for evidence also relies on a research supply of policy-relevant evidence, which can be <a href="http://www.ksi-indonesia.org/index.php/publications/2016/03/23/82/using-evidence-to-reflect-on-south-africa-s-20-years-of-democracy.html">a challenge</a> at times. There is still a lot of work to be done. Our review offers some ideas and suggestions that South Africa and other countries could adopt.</p>
<h2>Effective strategies</h2>
<p>It is crucial to invest in policymakers’ skills to use evidence. If they have the capacity and tools they need, there’s a greater chance they’ll use evidence. In South Africa, a number of different organisations and bodies offer capacity building around research use. But their activities are not homogeneous.</p>
<p>A more systematic approach to capacity building would mean that public servants and policymakers are exposed to similar support, particularly at provincial government level.</p>
<p>Also, if policymaking is to be more frequently informed by scientific evidence, researchers need to understand policymaking. Sadly most researchers don’t often leave their natural habitat at universities to engage and collaborate directly with policymakers. Researchers and policymakers could establish mentoring relationships – an effective strategy for exchanging knowledge.</p>
<p>One thing lies at the heart of all these suggestions: the use of evidence as a salient feature in decision- and policymaking. </p>
<h2>Engagement and dialogue</h2>
<p>Direct engagement between researchers and policymakers is crucial. There are growing opportunities for this, such as at the <a href="https://confsa.eventsair.com/QuickEventWebsitePortal/evidence-2016-conference/aen-2016">2016 Africa Evidence Network conference</a>. The conference will focus on three themes: engage, understand and impact. These also feature in the discussion around a <a href="http://www.ksi-indonesia.org/index.php/publications/2016/03/23/82/using-evidence-to-reflect-on-south-africa-s-20-years-of-democracy.html">new landmark report</a>, “Using evidence to reflect on South Africa’s 20 years of democracy”, which was published in March 2016.</p>
<p>This and similar initiatives mean that the time is ripe for South Africa’s research-use community to interrogate how effective its strategies are in supporting evidence-informed decision-making. It’s time to become more scientific about the use of research evidence.</p>
<p><em>Authors’ note: The Science of Using Science project was led by the Alliance for Useful Evidence, with generous funding and support from the Wellcome Trust and the What Works Centre for Wellbeing. The research was undertaken by Laurenz Langer, Janice Tripney and David Gough of the EPPI-Centre, Social Science Research Unit, UCL Institute of Education, University College London.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurenz Langer receives funding from from the UK government's Department for International Development for a programme supporting capacity to use research evidence in southern Africa.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Stewart receives funding from the UK government's Department for International Development for a programme supporting capacity to use research evidence in southern Africa.</span></em></p>Researchers and policymakers need to talk to each other. If they don’t, important research will merely gather dust and policies might do more harm than good.Laurenz Langer, Senior Researcher, University of JohannesburgRuth Stewart, Professor: Evidence-Informed Decision-Making, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/557132016-03-09T04:41:53Z2016-03-09T04:41:53ZAcademics can change the world – if they stop talking only to their peers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114045/original/image-20160307-30506-480t7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What's the point of academics producing amazing research if they don't share it widely with the general public?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Research and creative thinking can <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/round-up/zeros-to-heroes-10-unlikely-ideas-that-changed-the-world">change the world</a>. This means that academics have enormous power. But, as academics Asit Biswas and Julian Kirchherr have <a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/prof-no-one-is-reading-you">warned</a>, the overwhelming majority are not shaping today’s public debates.</p>
<p>Instead, their work is largely sitting in academic journals that are read almost exclusively by their peers. Biswas and Kirchherr <a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/prof-no-one-is-reading-you">estimate</a> that an average journal article is “read completely by no more than ten people”. They write:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Up to 1.5 million peer-reviewed articles are published annually. However, many are ignored even within scientific communities – 82% of articles published in humanities [journals] are not even cited once.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This suggests that a lot of great thinking and many potentially world altering ideas are not getting into the public domain. Why, then, are academics not doing more to share their work with the broader public? </p>
<p>The answer appears to be threefold: a narrow idea of what academics should or shouldn’t do; a lack of incentives from universities or governments; and a lack of training in the art of explaining complex concepts to a lay audience. </p>
<h2>The ‘intellectual mission’</h2>
<p>Some academics <a href="http://chronicle.com/article/Professor-Your-Writing-Could/233902">insist</a> that it’s not their job to write for the general public. They suggest that doing so would mean they’re <a href="http://chronicle.com/article/Should-Academics-Talk-to-Katie/235341">“abandoning their mission as intellectuals”</a>. They don’t want to feel like they’re “dumbing down” complex thinking and arguments.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://tomprof.stanford.edu/posting/1313">counter argument</a> is that academics can’t operate in isolation from the world’s very real problems. </p>
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<p>They may be producing important ideas and innovations that could help people understand and perhaps even begin to address issues like climate change, conflict, food insecurity and disease. </p>
<h2>No incentives</h2>
<p>Universities also don’t do a great deal to encourage academics to step beyond lecture halls and laboratories. There are globally very few institutions that offer incentives to their academics to write in the popular media, appear on TV or radio, or share their research findings and opinions with the public via these platforms.</p>
<p>In South Africa, where I conduct research and teach, incentives are limited to more “formal” publication methods. Individual institutions and the Department of Higher Education and Training offer rewards for publishing books, book chapters, monographs or articles in accredited, peer-reviewed journals. </p>
<p>The department pays universities <a href="http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20130712145949477">more than R100,000</a> per full publication unit – for example, one journal article. These funds are given to universities, which then use their own subsidy disbursement schemes to split the funds between the institution, the faculty in which the author works and the author. In some cases, <a href="http://www.uj.ac.za/research/Pages/DHET-Publication-Subsidy.aspx">academics receive more funding</a> for articles published in international journals than in local journals.</p>
<p>Catriona Macleod of Rhodes University in South Africa has argued that these financial incentives are an example of the “commodification of research” and that this is “bad for scholarship”. Macleod <a href="http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20100605063654105">told</a> University World News:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The incentive system is a blunt instrument that serves the purposes of increasing university income rather than supporting scholarship and knowledge production in South Africa.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There is nothing in the department’s <a href="http://www.dhet.gov.za/Policy%20and%20Development%20Support/Research%20Outputs%20policy%20gazette%202015.pdf">policy</a> that urges academics to share their research beyond academic spaces. There’s no suggestion that public outreach or engagement is valued. And this situation is not unique to South Africa: the <a href="http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/pressure-to-publish-or-perish-may-discourage-innovative-research-ucla-study-suggests">“publish or perish”</a> culture is a reality at universities all over the world. </p>
<p>Academics have no choice but to go along with this system. Their careers and promotions depend almost entirely on their journal publication record, so why even consider engaging with the general public?</p>
<h2>Learning to write</h2>
<p>There is a third factor holding academics back from writing for broader lay audiences: even if they’d like to, they may not know where to start and how to do it. </p>
<p>Writing an article for an academic journal is a very different process to penning one for those outside the academy. Naomi Wolf and Sacha Kopp, in an article examining the issue, <a href="http://chronicle.com/article/Should-Academics-Talk-to-Katie/235341">wrote</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Academic writing has the benefit of scholarly rigour, full documentation and original thinking. But the transmission of our ideas is routinely hampered … by a great deal of peer-oriented jargon.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Universities have a role to play here by offering workshops and courses to their academics and students. This can help develop creative non-fiction writing skills. </p>
<h2>Time for a change</h2>
<p>Academics need to start playing a more prominent role in society instead of largely remaining observers who write about the world from within ivory towers and publish their findings in journals hidden behind expensive digital paywalls.</p>
<p>Government and university policies need to become more prescriptive in what they expect from academics. Publishing research in peer-reviewed journals is and will remain highly important. But incentives should be added to encourage academics to share their research with the general public. </p>
<p>Doing this sort of work ought to count towards promotions and should yield rewards for both universities and individual academics. </p>
<p>Quality academic research and innovation are crucial. It is equally important, though, to get ideas out into the world beyond academia. It could make a real difference in people’s lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55713/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Savo Heleta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Very few academics do a great deal to share their often important and relevant research with the general public. What’s holding them back?Savo Heleta, Researcher, Durban University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.