tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/population-growth-3006/articlesPopulation growth – The Conversation2024-03-18T19:21:15Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252682024-03-18T19:21:15Z2024-03-18T19:21:15ZOn a climate rollercoaster: how Australia’s environment fared in the world’s hottest year<p>Global climate <a href="https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-confirms-2023-smashes-global-temperature-record">records were shattered</a> in 2023, from air and sea temperatures to sea-level rise and sea-ice extent. Scores of countries recorded their hottest year and numerous weather disasters occurred as climate change reared its head. </p>
<p>How did Australia’s environment fare against this onslaught? In short, 2023 was a year of opposites.</p>
<p>For the past nine years, we have trawled through huge volumes of data collected by satellites, measurement stations and surveys by individuals and agencies. We include data on global change, oceans, people, weather, water, soils, vegetation, fire and biodiversity. </p>
<p>Each year, we analyse those data, summarising them in an <a href="https://bit.ly/ausenv2023">annual report</a> that includes an overall Environmental Condition Score and <a href="https://ausenv.online/aer/scorecards/">regional scorecards</a>. These scores provide a relative measure of conditions for agriculture and ecosystems. Scores declined across the country, except in the Northern Territory, but were still relatively good.</p>
<p>However, the updated <a href="https://tsx.org.au/">Threatened Species Index</a> shows the abundance of listed bird, mammal and plant species has continued to decline at a rate of about 3% a year since the turn of the century.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581821/original/file-20240314-22-p8uskx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Environmental condition indicators for 2023, showing the changes from 2000–2022 average values. Such differences can be part of a long-term trend or within normal variability.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wenfo.org/aer/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2023_Australias_Environment_Report-1.pdf">Australia's Environment 2023 Report.</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-2023s-record-heat-worsened-droughts-floods-and-bushfires-around-the-world-220836">How 2023's record heat worsened droughts, floods and bushfires around the world</a>
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<h2>Riding a climate rollercoaster in 2023</h2>
<p>Worldwide, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-2023s-record-heat-worsened-droughts-floods-and-bushfires-around-the-world-220836">77 countries broke temperature records</a>. Australia was not one of them. Our annual average temperature was 0.53°C below the horror year 2019. Temperatures in the seas around us were below the records of 2022. </p>
<p>Even so, 2023 was among Australia’s eight warmest years in both cases. All eight came after 2005.</p>
<p>However, those numbers are averaged over the year. Dig a bit deeper and it becomes clear 2023 was a climate rollercoaster.</p>
<p>The year started as wet as the previous year ended, but dry and unseasonably warm weather set in from May to October. Soils and wetlands across much of the country started drying rapidly. In the eastern states, the fire season started as early as August. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, there was generally still enough water to support good vegetation growth throughout the unusually warm and sunny winter months.</p>
<p>Fears of a severe fire season were not realised as El Niño’s influence waned in November and rainfall returned, in part due to the warm oceans. Combined with relatively high temperatures, it made for a hot and humid summer. A tropical cyclone and several severe storms caused flooding in Queensland and Victoria in December. </p>
<p>As always, there were regional differences. Northern Australia experienced the best rainfall and growth conditions in several years. This contributed to more grass fires than average during the dry season. On the other hand, the rain did not return to Western Australia and Tasmania, which ended the year dry.</p>
<h2>So how did scores change?</h2>
<p>Every year we calculate an Environmental Condition Score that combines weather, water and vegetation data.</p>
<p>The national score was 7.5 (out of 10). That was 1.2 points lower than for 2022, but still the second-highest score since 2011. </p>
<p>Scores declined across the country except for the Northern Territory, which chalked up a score of 8.8 thanks to a strong monsoon season. With signs of drought developing in parts of Western Australia, it had the lowest score of 5.5.</p>
<p>The Environmental Condition Score reflects environmental conditions, but does not measure the long-term health of natural ecosystems and biodiversity. </p>
<p>Firstly, it relates only to the land and not our oceans. Marine heatwaves damaged ecosystems along the eastern coast. Surveys in the first half of 2023 suggested the recovery of the Great Barrier Reef plateaued. </p>
<p>However, a cyclone and rising ocean temperatures occurred later in the year. In early 2024, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-barrier-reefs-latest-bout-of-bleaching-is-the-fifth-in-eight-summers-the-corals-now-have-almost-no-reprieve-225348">another mass coral bleaching event</a> developed. </p>
<p>Secondly, the score does not capture important processes affecting our many threatened species. Among the greatest dangers are invasive pests and diseases, habitat destruction and damage from severe weather events such as heatwaves and megafires.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-ecosystems-unprecedented-climates-more-australian-species-than-ever-are-struggling-to-survive-222375">New ecosystems, unprecedented climates: more Australian species than ever are struggling to survive</a>
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<h2>Threatened species’ declines continued</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://tsx.org.au/">Threatened Species Index</a> captures data from long-term threatened species monitoring. The index is updated annually with a three-year lag, largely due to delays in data processing and sharing. This means the 2023 index includes data up to 2020.</p>
<p>The index showed an unrelenting decline of about 3% in the abundance of Australia’s threatened bird, mammal and plant species each year. This amounts to an overall decline of 61% from 2000 to 2020.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line graph of Threatened Species Index" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581823/original/file-20240314-16-yi6tr0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Threatened Species Index showing the abundance of different categories of species listed under the EPBC Act relative to 2000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wenfo.org/aer/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2023_Australias_Environment_Report-1.pdf">Australia's Environment 2023 Report</a></span>
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<p>The index for birds in 2023 revealed declines were most severe for terrestrial birds (62%), followed by migratory shorebirds (47%) and marine birds (24%).</p>
<p>A record 130 species were added to Australia’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened/nominations">threatened species lists</a> in 2023. That’s many more than the annual average of 29 species over previous years. The 2019–2020 <a href="https://theconversation.com/200-experts-dissected-the-black-summer-bushfires-in-unprecedented-detail-here-are-6-lessons-to-heed-198989">Black Summer bushfires</a> had direct impacts on half the newly listed species.</p>
<h2>Population boom adds to pressures</h2>
<p>Australia’s population passed <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-clock-pyramid">27 million</a> in 2023, a stunning increase of 8 million, or 41%, since 2000. Those extra people all needed living space, food, electricity and transport. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-population-is-expected-to-double-in-80-years-we-asked-australians-where-they-want-all-these-people-to-live-176889">Our population is expected to double in 80 years. We asked Australians where they want all these people to live</a>
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<p>Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2023">have risen by 18% since 2000</a>. Despite small declines in the previous four years, emissions increased again in 2023, mostly due to air travel rebounding after COVID-19. </p>
<p>Our emissions per person are the <a href="https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2023">tenth-highest in the world</a> and more than three times those of the average global citizen. The main reasons are our coal-fired power stations, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-passenger-vehicle-emission-rates-are-50-higher-than-the-rest-of-the-world-and-its-getting-worse-222398">inefficient road vehicles</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/11/how-many-cattle-are-there-in-australia-we-may-be-out-by-10-million">large cattle herd</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, there are reasons to be optimistic. Many other countries have dramatically <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-gdp-decoupling">reduced emissions without compromising economic growth</a> or quality of life. All we have to do is to finally follow their lead.</p>
<p>Our governments have an obvious role to play, but we can do a lot as individuals. We can even save money, by switching to renewable energy and electric vehicles and by eating less beef.</p>
<p>Changing our behaviour will not stop climate change in its tracks, but will slow it down over the next decades and ultimately reverse it. We cannot reverse or even stop all damage to our environment, but we can certainly do much better.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-australias-net-zero-transition-threatens-to-stall-rooftop-solar-could-help-provide-the-power-we-need-220050">As Australia's net zero transition threatens to stall, rooftop solar could help provide the power we need</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Australia’s Environment is produced by the ANU Fenner School for Environment & Society and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN), an NCRIS-enabled National Research Infrastructure. Albert Van Dijk receives or has previously received funding from several government-funded agencies, grant schemes and programmes.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tayla Lawrie is a current employee of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN), funded by the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shoshana Rapley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Conditions deteriorated in 2023 but were stlil relatively good for ecosystems and agriculture. Unfortunately, the alarming decline of threatened species continued.Albert Van Dijk, Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityShoshana Rapley, Research Assistant, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityTayla Lawrie, Project Manager, Threatened Species Index, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2198122024-02-08T00:13:16Z2024-02-08T00:13:16ZPopulation can’t be ignored. It has to be part of the policy solution to our world’s problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571345/original/file-20240125-25-ep3bs0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3544%2C2352&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/planet-earth-big-city-view-highest-575859517">Marina Poushkina/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a growing consensus that environmental problems, particularly the effects of climate change, pose a grave challenge to humanity. Pollution, habitat destruction, intractable waste issues and, for many, deteriorating quality of life should be added to the list.</p>
<p>Economic growth is the chief culprit. We forget, though, that environmental impacts are a consequence of per capita consumption multiplied by the number of people doing the consuming. Our own numbers matter. </p>
<p>Population growth threatens environments at global, national and regional scales. Yet the policy agenda either ignores human population, or <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-08/p2023-435150.pdf">fosters alarm</a> when perfectly natural trends such as declining fertility and longer lifespans cause growth rates to fall and populations to age.</p>
<p>That there are still too many of us is a problem few want to talk about. Fifty years ago, population was <a href="https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/">considered to be an issue</a>, not only for the developing world, but for the planet as a whole. Since then, the so-called green revolution in agriculture made it possible to feed many more people. But the costs of these practices, which relied heavily on pesticide and fertiliser use and relatively few crops, are only now beginning to be understood. </p>
<p>The next 30 years will be critical. The most recent <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/">United Nations projections</a> point to a global population of 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100. There are 8 billion of us now. Another 2 billion will bring already stressed ecosystems to the point of collapse. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A line graph showing global population growth since 1950 and projection to 2100." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The latest global population projection from the United Nations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/900">UN World Population Prospects 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<h2>It’s the whole world’s problem</h2>
<p>Many would agree overpopulation is a problem in many developing countries, where large families keep people poor. But there are too many of us in the developed world, too. Per person, people in high-income countries <a href="https://populationmatters.org/the-facts-resources-consumption/">consume 60% more resources</a> than in upper-middle-income countries and more than 13 times as much as people in low-income countries.</p>
<p>From 1995 to 2020, the UK population, for example, grew by 9.1 million. A crowded little island, particularly around London and the south-east, became more crowded still. </p>
<p>Similarly, the Netherlands, <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.DNST?most_recent_value_desc=true&view=map">one of the most densely populated countries</a>, had just under 10 million inhabitants in 1950 and 17.6 million in 2020. In the 1950s, the government encouraged emigration to reduce population densities. By the 21st century, another 5 million people in a tiny country certainly caused opposition to immigration, but concern was wrongly focused on the ethnic composition of the increase. The principal problem of overpopulation received little attention. </p>
<p>Australia is celebrated as “a land of boundless plains to share”. In reality it’s a small country that consists of big distances. </p>
<p>As former NSW Premier Bob Carr <a href="https://fac.flinders.edu.au/dspace/api/core/bitstreams/6734a834-4409-46fb-b92c-3a7aec8e76d1/content">predicted</a> some years ago, as Australia’s population swelled, the extra numbers would be housed in spreading suburbs that would gobble up farmland nearest our cities and threaten coastal and near-coastal habitats. How right he was. The outskirts of Sydney and Melbourne are carpeted in big, ugly houses whose inhabitants will be forever car-dependent. </p>
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<img alt="An aerial view of city suburbs stretching out to the horizon" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Non-stop growth means our cities are becoming less efficient and liveable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-urban-sprawl-along-rapidly-1977700022">Harley Kingston/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Doing nothing has a high cost</h2>
<p>The longer we do nothing about population growth, the worse it gets. More people now inevitably mean more in the future than there would otherwise have been. </p>
<p>We live very long lives, on average, so once we’re born, we tend to stick around. It takes a while for falling birthrates to have any impact. </p>
<p>And when they do, the population boosters respond with cries of alarm. The norm is seen as a young or youngish population, while the elderly are presented as a parasitical drag upon the young. </p>
<p>Falling reproduction rates should not be regarded as a disaster but as a natural occurrence to which we can adapt. </p>
<p>Recently, we have been told Australia must have high population growth, because of workforce shortages. It is rarely stated exactly what these shortages are, and why we cannot train enough people to fill them. </p>
<p>Population and development are connected in subtle ways, at global, national and regional scales. At each level, stabilising the population holds the key to a more environmentally secure and equitable future. </p>
<p>For those of us who value the natural world for its own sake, the matter is clear – we should make room for other species. For those who do not care about other species, the reality is that without a more thoughtful approach to our own numbers, planetary systems will continue to break down.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line graph showing the probabilities of global population projections and the impacts of having 0.5 more or less children per woman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Cutting births by just 0.5 children per woman can dramatically reduce the level at which the world’s population peaks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/900">UN World Population Prospects 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Let women choose to have fewer children</h2>
<p>So, what to do? If we assume the Earth’s population is going to exceed 10 billion, the type of thinking behind this assumption means we are sleepwalking our way into a nightmarish future when a better one is within our grasp.</p>
<p>A radical rethink of the global economy is needed to address climate change. In relation to population growth, if we can move beyond unhelpful ideologies, the solution is already available. </p>
<p>People are not stupid. In particular, women are not stupid. Where women are given the choice, they restrict the number of children they have. This freedom is as basic a human right as you can get. </p>
<p>A much-needed demographic transition could be under way right now, if only the population boosters would let it happen. </p>
<p>Those who urge greater rates of reproduction, whether they realise it or not, are serving only the short-term interests of developers and some religious authorities, for whom big societies mean more power for themselves. It is a masculinist fantasy for which most women, and many men, have long been paying a huge price. </p>
<p>Women will show the way, if only we would let them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219812/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jenny Stewart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most of the problems confronting the world come down to population growth. But where women are given the choice, they limit the number of children they have.Jenny Stewart, Professor of Public Policy, ADFA Canberra, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183042023-12-12T17:30:58Z2023-12-12T17:30:58ZRiver deltas are threatened by more than climate change – leaving hundreds of millions of people at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564467/original/file-20231208-19-8nst7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C976%2C667&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Irrawaddy delta, Myanmar.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/river-delta-irrawady-that-flows-north-1013252395">lavizzara/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Perilously situated between rising sea levels and pressures from upstream lie coastal river deltas and their roughly half a billion inhabitants. These regions have played an important role in societal development since the last ice age, offering flat, fertile lands with abundant freshwater which are ideal for agriculture.</p>
<p>In recent times, coastal river deltas have become hubs of the global shipping trade, giving rise to fast-growing megacities such as Dhaka, Cairo and Shanghai. But these areas are now <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aab3574">under threat</a>. And not all of the blame can be placed on climate change. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001024">recent research</a> reveals that 49 deltas around the world, including the Nile, Mekong, and Mississippi are facing growing risks under all of the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/">IPCC’s future scenarios</a> for climate change and development. </p>
<p>Our analysis shows that certain risks are more critical to some deltas than others. These risks include land subsidence, increasing population density, intensive agriculture, ineffective governance and a lack of capacity to adapt.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial photograph of Dhaka." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dhaka was built on the Ganges river delta 400 years ago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dhaka-bangladesh-july-14-2023-birdseye-2331732691">Sk Hasan Ali/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Sinking land</h2>
<p>Sea level rise and its associated impacts, such as salinisation, are a key threat to deltas. But it’s not just the rising sea that creates such risks – deltas themselves <a href="https://theconversation.com/sea-levels-are-rising-fastest-in-big-cities-heres-why-157077">are sinking</a>. Our results show that land subsides as much as three times faster than sea level rise in deltas such as the Mekong in Vietnam and the Krishna and Godavari in India. </p>
<p>All land rises and falls as the Earth’s crust slowly changes shape. But, when land consists of a sediment pile hundreds of metres deep, as in some deltas, the process can happen much faster. The sediment particles compact together under the weight of everything on top (including cities), and when the water, or sometimes oil and gas, that naturally fills the spaces between particles is pumped out, the grains collapse on top of each other.</p>
<p>Land subsidence leads to relative sea level rise (the combination of the sea level rising plus the land sinking). This process can turn croplands salty, cause widespread flooding and, in extreme cases, lead to the loss of entire coastal areas. Research suggests that <a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesias-capital-jakarta-is-sinking-heres-how-to-stop-this-170269">around 25%</a> of the Indonesian capital Jakarta, which is built on low-lying land next to the sea, will be submerged in 2050.</p>
<h2>Population density and crop land use</h2>
<p>The Nile, Ganges and Pearl deltas are also among the most densely populated places in the world. China’s Pearl delta, in particular, is jammed with the megacities of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Foshan, which are together home to over 30 million people. Many deltas will become even more densely populated and urbanised over the coming decades.</p>
<p>Urban development prevents natural river flooding processes from <a href="https://theconversation.com/river-deltas-are-drowning-threatening-hundreds-of-millions-of-people-125088">delivering sediment</a> to deltas and maintaining the land’s elevation above the river channel and sea. This can cause delta land to sink relative to sea level at an even faster pace.</p>
<p>Deltas are also hugely important for food production. Irrigated agriculture occupies almost all of the Red delta in Vietnam, the Po in Italy and the Yangtze in China. If groundwater is pumped from aquifers to irrigate crops, then again these deltas will subside much faster.</p>
<p>Disrupted food production in these places could have dire consequences in the future – and not just for delta inhabitants. Vietnam is the world’s second-largest rice exporter and <a href="https://publicpartnershipdata.azureedge.net/gef/GEFProjectVersions/670110b7-0491-e911-a837-000d3a37557b_CEOEndorsement.pdf">almost all of that rice</a> comes from the Mekong delta.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aerial view of ripe rice fields in the Mekong delta countryside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Almost all of that rice exported from Vietnam comes from the Mekong delta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-ripe-rice-fields-noon-2216678845">Huy Thoai/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Capacity to adapt</h2>
<p>Delta countries have options when it comes to managing many of the risks they face – they are not simply at the mercy of large global greenhouse gas emitters. However, the readiness, capacity and effectiveness of governments to adapt to risks is low in many deltas. </p>
<p>This is particularly true for the Irrawaddy delta in Myanmar and African deltas including the Congo, Limpopo and Zambezi. The per capita GDP of the countries in these deltas is among the lowest in the world, as are indicators of <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators">government effectiveness</a> and <a href="https://gain.nd.edu/">readiness for adaptation</a>. </p>
<p>International support and cooperation can and should play a supportive role here. But this is no simple task. Developing countries require a substantial amount of funding to implement necessary adaptation measures. In fact, the adaption finance needs of developing countries are now <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023">ten to 18 times</a> as big as international public finance flows (funds that move between countries typically with the aim of supporting development).</p>
<p>And that’s just for adapting to climate change. The array of delta risks revealed by our analysis stretch far beyond the climate and require coordination from local to global scales.</p>
<h2>What’s the solution?</h2>
<p>Solutions must be developed that consider all of these risks. Efforts to limit climate change remain urgent, as does the regulation of groundwater and fossil fuel extraction from deltas. </p>
<p>Cities can be <a href="https://watersensitivecities.org.au/flood-resilience-2/">designed to be more resilient</a> against floods, while agricultural practices can be adapted to cope with risks. This may involve embracing methods such as aquaculture, cultivating salt-tolerant crops, or exploring <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-soils-saltier-forcing-many-farmers-to-find-new-livelihoods-106048">alternative farming approaches</a> that can accommodate flooding and delta sedimentation processes.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-soils-saltier-forcing-many-farmers-to-find-new-livelihoods-106048">Climate change is making soils saltier, forcing many farmers to find new livelihoods</a>
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<p>Engineered solutions, such as sea walls, will be required where other strategies are impossible. But these should not become the default approach. Above all, the development of solutions must be inclusive, involving not only experts but also local people, propelled by urgently needed government action and finance.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218304/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Scown receives funding from The Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (Formas). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frances Eleanor Dunn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The world’s coastal deltas are home to hundreds of thousands of people – but they’re now under threat.Murray Scown, Associate Senior Lecturer in Geography, Lund UniversityFrances Eleanor Dunn, Assistant professor, Utrecht UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164502023-11-15T14:30:06Z2023-11-15T14:30:06ZHealth risks at home: a study in six African countries shows how healthy housing saves children’s lives<p>Housing is a critical social determinant of health. The World Health Organization (WHO) <a href="https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/276001/9789241550376-eng.pdf?sequence=22">defines healthy housing</a> as a shelter that supports physical, mental and social wellbeing. </p>
<p>The WHO has developed <a href="https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/276001/9789241550376-eng.pdf?sequence=1">guidelines</a> outlining the attributes of healthy housing. These include structural soundness, as well as access to a local community that enables social interactions. Healthy housing protects inhabitants from the effects of disasters, pollution, waste and extreme heat or cold. It provides a feeling of home, including a sense of belonging, security and privacy. </p>
<p>Health risks in the home environment are important to think about because of the amount of time people spend there. In countries where unemployment levels are high or where most work is home based, people spend <a href="https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/276001/9789241550376-eng.pdf?sequence=23">more than 70% of their time indoors</a>. Children especially spend a large amount of time at home, which exposes them to any health risks in the home environment.</p>
<p>We are researchers from the African Population and Health Research Center with an interest in urbanisation and population dynamics. We recently set out to <a href="https://bmcpediatr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12887-023-03992-5">study the link between housing and children’s health</a>. We found that healthy housing generally lowered the chances of children falling ill with three diseases that we tracked: diarrhoea, acute respiratory illnesses and fever. </p>
<p>The impacts of housing quality extend beyond health and can have significant implications for education and subsequent economic outcomes, particularly for children. </p>
<h2>The research</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/can-rapid-urbanization-in-africa-reduce-poverty-causes-opportunities-and-policy-recommendations/">Rapid urbanisation and population growth</a> in Africa have pushed many people into informal settlements. Sub-Saharan Africa has <a href="https://blogs.afdb.org/fr/inclusive-growth/urbanization-africa-191">65%</a> of the world’s slum dwellers. This population generally lives in poor housing that lacks access to clean water, sanitation and hygiene services. The structures are overcrowded. They tend to have leaking roofs and damp walls, floors and foundations. They may also have indoor pollution, compromising the health of millions of people.</p>
<p>We set out to <a href="https://bmcpediatr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12887-023-03992-5">evaluate</a> the relationship between healthy housing and the likelihood of children falling sick across six African countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa.</p>
<p>We studied the incidence of diarrhoea, acute respiratory illness and fever among children under the age of five. These three conditions can have severe consequences for child health and wellbeing. </p>
<p>Diarrhoea and acute respiratory infections are <a href="https://academic.oup.com/inthealth/advance-article/doi/10.1093/inthealth/ihad046/7210800">leading causes</a> of disease and deaths in children aged below five worldwide. Diarrhoea accounted for <a href="https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-health/diarrhoeal-disease/">9%</a> of all deaths among children under five in 2019. Acute respiratory illnesses caused about <a href="https://www.who.int/data/gho/indicator-metadata-registry/imr-details/3147">20%</a> of deaths among children in this age group. The burden of under-five deaths linked to diarrhoea and respiratory illnesses like pneumonia is <a href="https://childmortality.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/UN-IGME-Child-Mortality-Report-2022.pdf#page=4">higher</a> for children in developing countries than those in developed regions. </p>
<p>We selected the six countries in our study because they provided data on the three diseases we tracked. They also allow for a comparative analysis across African countries. Our study used the latest available demographic and health survey data at the time of our research: Burkina Faso (2010), Cameroon (2011), Ghana (2014), Kenya (2014), Nigeria (2018) and South Africa (2016). We sampled data on 91,096 children aged under five.</p>
<h2>The findings</h2>
<p>Our study found that healthy housing was <a href="https://bmcpediatr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12887-023-03992-5/tables/2">generally associated with reduced odds</a> of contracting the three illnesses we considered: diarrhoea, acute respiratory illness and fever. Our definition of healthy housing considered several attributes, including sanitation, drinking water sources and housing characteristics. </p>
<p>Homes that protect occupants from the elements, ensure access to adequate space and reduce overcrowding help keep children healthy. Homes that use cleaner cooking and lighting fuels reduce household air pollution, which leads to lower chances of respiratory infections.</p>
<p>Children living in healthy housing had fewer incidences of fever in all countries apart from South Africa. Here, children living in the healthiest homes are twice as likely to have fever than those living in unhealthy homes.</p>
<p>Fever is an indication of an underlying infection that could be viral or bacterial. Such infections are common in South Africa. In addition, the main causes of fevers among children under five are <a href="https://www.hindawi.com/journals/grp/2023/1906782/">diarrhoea and acute respiratory illnesses</a>. Among the countries included in the analysis, South Africa had the highest proportion of young mothers (aged below 25) and never-married mothers. This increases the chances that these mothers are engaged in work outside the home, leading to the early introduction of complementary feeding. This has been shown to increase the incidence of diarrhoea. These results call for addressing the causes of diarrhoea and respiratory illnesses by, for instance, ensuring South African homes have access to clean drinking water, adequate sanitation and clean energy for cooking.</p>
<p>While healthy housing is crucial, it’s not the sole determinant of a child’s health. Other factors, such as a sense of community, environmental exposure, parental education, income levels, healthcare access, and maternal and child-level factors <a href="https://bmcpediatr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12887-023-03992-5/tables/3">also contribute to the overall health status of children</a>. For instance, we found that children in Burkina Faso who were not breastfed had higher chances of getting diarrhoea than those who were breastfed despite the condition of their housing. This tracks with studies that have documented that breastfeeding has a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2023.1086999">protective role</a> over gastrointestinal and respiratory tract infections among children. </p>
<h2>What next</h2>
<p>From our findings, parents can improve the wellbeing of their children by implementing simple strategies. This includes ensuring they use clean energy for cooking to reduce indoor air pollution and consequently reduce the incidence of acute respiratory illnesses. Similarly, using clean drinking water, hand washing and improving sanitation can help reduce cases of diarrhoea. </p>
<p>Bold but nuanced policy and programme government-level interventions can also help address the incidence of diseases affecting children under five in Africa. This requires efforts that go beyond just addressing the issue of housing to working with complementary sectors, like health, urban planning, environment and education.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216450/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hellen Gitau received funding from Wellcome Trust for this Complex Urban System for Sustainability and Health study. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Blessing Mberu received funding from Wellcome Trust for this Complex Urban System for Sustainability and Health study. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kanyiva Muindi received funding from Wellcome Trust for this Complex Urban System for Sustainability and Health study. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Iddi received funding from Wellcome Trust for this Complex Urban System for Sustainability and Health study.</span></em></p>The impact of housing quality extends beyond health to education and subsequent economic outcomes, particularly for children.Hellen Gitau, Research officer, African Population and Health Research CenterBlessing Mberu, Head of Urbanisation and Wellbeing, African Population and Health Research Center, African Population and Health Research CenterKanyiva Muindi, Associate Research Scientist, African Population and Health Research CenterSamuel Iddi, Research Scientist, African Population and Health Research CenterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2149522023-10-05T18:00:39Z2023-10-05T18:00:39ZRecord immigration will put pressure on NZ’s population, infrastructure and productivity – where’s the election debate?<p>The concerns of various pundits and politicians earlier this year that New Zealand might <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/brain-drain-signs-of-recovery-but-immigration-challenges-remain/62XKIY5H6JPXAPF6YKBSWMBTQA/">struggle to attract immigrants</a> turned out to be premature. In fact, the country’s population has been boosted to the extent it should be a bigger election issue than it is.</p>
<p>In the 12 months to July, total permanent migrant arrivals were 208,400 – exceeding previous levels by quite a margin. Accounting for permanent departures, the net population gain from immigrants has been 96,200. </p>
<p>That breaks all previous records, and even accounts for a return to the consistent pattern of a net loss of New Zealand citizens (39,500 in the same period). There is every indication the country will hit an <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-migration-july-2023/">annual net gain</a> of 100,000 people.</p>
<p>At this rate, inward migration will provide a net annual population gain of 2% for 2023. Once natural increase is added (births over deaths being more than 20,000 a year), the overall rate will be around 2.3% to 2.4%. By contrast, the OECD average is less than 0.5%.</p>
<p>Auckland is beginning another period of rapid population growth, reversing the <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/aucklands-population-falls-for-the-first-time">decline seen in 2021</a>. The city’s growth accounts for around half of the country’s total net migration gain. Combined with a natural increase of around 7,000 to 8,000, it means the city will have significant population growth, even allowing for a net migration <a href="https://www.infometrics.co.nz/article/2020-11-kiwis-shifting-from-cities-to-the-regions">loss to other regions</a>.</p>
<p>Some of this surge can be explained by the return to relative normal after pandemic restrictions were lifted. But there’s a range of other factors pushing people to New Zealand, including anti-immigrant politics and general disenchantment in other countries.</p>
<p>New Zealand is seen as a desirable destination. In a <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-09-07/the-best-countries-in-the-world-according-to-americans">recent US survey</a> Americans ranked New Zealand second on their list of “best countries” – ahead of the US itself.</p>
<h2>Immigration and productivity</h2>
<p>In 2021, at the request of the finance minister, the Productivity Commission examined the ways immigration settings would contribute to the “long-term prosperity and wellbeing” of the country.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.productivity.govt.nz/assets/Inquiries/immigration-settings/Immigration-Fit-for-the-future.pdf">Immigration – Fit for the Future</a> report released in 2022 provided a very complete review of the data and issues. While it indicated that immigration and immigrants have positive effects and outcomes for New Zealand, it also pointed to a lack of consistency and strategy, and little public accountability.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/refugees-who-set-up-businesses-enrich-nz-financially-culturally-and-socially-they-deserve-more-support-194446">Refugees who set up businesses enrich NZ financially, culturally and socially – they deserve more support</a>
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<p>Key findings included what the commission referred to as “an infrastructure deficit” as investment failed to keep up with population growth. It also described a “reliance risk” on migrant labour that had “negative consequences on innovation and productivity”. </p>
<p>In the trade-off between a reliance on migrant labour or investing in new technologies, the concern is that migrant labour presents an easy win, with little incentive for employers to innovate. </p>
<p>Yet the significant implications of the current immigration surge for planning and productivity are noticeably absent from this election campaign.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1709607607533519201"}"></div></p>
<h2>The missing election issue</h2>
<p>Mostly, the main parties are positive about the role and contribution of immigrants (unlike some countries where anti-migrant sentiment has been rising). But the parties are also mainly concerned with policy detail, not the bigger picture.</p>
<p>Labour, National, ACT and the Greens all propose family and parent visas. This is to be welcomed, as migration works best when extended families are involved. And there is a general recognition that talent recruitment needs more attention.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-has-new-zealand-welcomed-ukrainians-fleeing-war-and-not-others-trying-to-do-the-same-179467">Why has New Zealand welcomed Ukrainians fleeing war and not others trying to do the same?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Specifically, Labour wants Pasifika and other migrants who have been in New Zealand for ten years or more to gain residency. The Greens propose a review of refugee and asylum-seeker policy. National wants a new visa category for highly educated migrants. And ACT would require a regulatory impact analysis for all immigration policy.</p>
<p>For its part, New Zealand First refers back to its policies from the 2020 election. This includes statements about the negative impact of “cheap labour undermining New Zealand’s pay and conditions”, something the Productivity Commission found little evidence of.</p>
<p>But the party also suggested greater attention should be given to a more regionally dispersed population and the establishment of a 30-year population plan. Somewhat by default, then, New Zealand First highlights the gaps in other parties’ policy recommendations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/foreign-policy-has-been-missing-from-nzs-election-campaign-voters-deserve-answers-to-these-big-questions-214633">Foreign policy has been missing from NZ's election campaign – voters deserve answers to these big questions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Where is the population strategy?</h2>
<p>A more robust and constructive election debate would have addressed those big gaps more directly.</p>
<p>What should be New Zealand’s annual target for migrants, both permanent and temporary? How do we meet the challenges created by the current high volume, including the processing of applications, potential for migrant exploitation, and the stress on services and infrastructure?</p>
<p>More broadly, shouldn’t we be looking at immigration policy in the context of all the elements in play? This would mean factoring in the rapid ageing of the population, declining fertility and very different regional demographic trajectories (with some places experiencing population stagnation or decline).</p>
<p>Asked in a <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018909344/election-2023-national-leader-christopher-luxon">recent radio interview</a> about the housing and infrastructure challenges of immigration and record population growth, National leader (and potentially next prime minister) Christopher Luxon argued the numbers were a “catch-up” from the COVID years:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We’ve got to make sure immigration is always strongly linked to our economic agenda and where we have worker shortages.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This only emphasises the lack of a genuine national plan. Now that the workers kept out by COVID are flowing into the country in large numbers, the Productivity Commission’s observations and suggestions are more relevant than ever.</p>
<p>Otherwise, New Zealand risks allowing immigration to be the default answer to much harder questions about innovation, productivity and the development of a long-term population strategy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214952/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Spoonley has received funding from MBIE to research migrant flows and the impacts of diversity. This research ended in 2021. </span></em></p>With immigration soaring, warnings about its impact on population distribution, housing and business innovation have gone largely undiscussed during the election campaign.Paul Spoonley, Distinguished Professor, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2074702023-09-05T12:29:28Z2023-09-05T12:29:28ZCalifornia and Florida grew quickly on the promise of perfect climates in the 1900s – today, they lead the country in climate change risks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538547/original/file-20230720-23-tqmqx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=91%2C257%2C771%2C522&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Iconic California from a 1920s orange box label.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://calisphere.org/item/ark:/13030/kt1k4023mq/">Covina Citrus Industry Photographs</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Images of orange groves and Spanish-themed hotels with palm tree gardens filled countless pamphlets and articles promoting Southern California and Florida in the late 19th century, promising escape from winter’s reach.</p>
<p>This vision of an “<a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/rc01000915/">American Italy</a>” captured hearts and imaginations across the U.S. In it, Florida and California promised a place in the sun for industrious Americans to live the good life, with the perfect climate.</p>
<p>But the very climates that made these semitropical playgrounds the American dream of the 20th century threaten to break their reputations in the 21st century.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Women in 1920s-style bathing suits lounge on a beach in Florida." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538207/original/file-20230719-5903-aglwo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538207/original/file-20230719-5903-aglwo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538207/original/file-20230719-5903-aglwo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538207/original/file-20230719-5903-aglwo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538207/original/file-20230719-5903-aglwo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538207/original/file-20230719-5903-aglwo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538207/original/file-20230719-5903-aglwo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A postcard illustrates the latest style for Miami beach bathing around 1920.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Miami_Beach_-_Bathing_in_the_Atlantic_Ocean.jpg">Asheville Post Card Co./Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In California, home owners now face <a href="https://swcasc.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2022-08/HeatWaves.pdf">dangerous heat waves</a>, <a href="https://www.ppic.org/publication/droughts-in-california/">extended droughts</a> that threaten the water supply, and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2213815120">uncontrollable wildfires</a>. In Florida, sea level rise is worsening the <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/recurrent-tidal-flooding.html">risks of high-tide flooding</a> and storm surge from hurricanes, in addition to turning up the thermostat on already humid heat. Global warming has put both Florida and California at the top of the list of states <a href="https://xdi.systems/xdi-benchmark-gdcr/">most at risk from climate change</a>.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://history.exeter.ac.uk/staff/hknightlozano/">books and research</a> have explored how these two states were sold to the U.S. public like twin Edens. Today, descendants of those early waves of residents are facing a different world.</p>
<h2>Selling semitropical climates</h2>
<p>As railroads first reached Southern California and the Florida peninsula in the 1870s and 1880s, land, civic and newspaper boosters in each state worked to overturn beliefs that people only thrived in colder climes. In the decades after the Civil War, white Americans living in the North and Midwest had to be persuaded that sun-kissed climates would not do them more harm than good. </p>
<p>Employed by the transcontinental railroads, influential writers like <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/14022123/">Charles Nordhoff</a> contested eastern notions of Southern California as barren desert where “Anglo-Americans” would inevitably succumb to the “disease” of laziness. </p>
<p>Challenging persistent ideas of a malarial swampland, promoters in Florida, including the state’s <a href="https://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00055131/00001/images/1">own Bureau of Immigration</a>, similarly put a growing emphasis on climate as a vital resource for fruit growers and health seekers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Photograph of orange grove and passenger train in Southern California, ca. 1880." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532656/original/file-20230619-25-tl07qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532656/original/file-20230619-25-tl07qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532656/original/file-20230619-25-tl07qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532656/original/file-20230619-25-tl07qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532656/original/file-20230619-25-tl07qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532656/original/file-20230619-25-tl07qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532656/original/file-20230619-25-tl07qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the late 1800s, state promoters published pamphlets selling settlers and tourists on California’s semitropical climate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://digitallibrary.usc.edu/asset-management/2A3BF1K2OD8">California Historical Society Collection, 1860-1960, University of Southern California Libraries and California Historical Society.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Climate became integral to California’s and Florida’s growing reputation as idealized U.S. destinations. Moreover, it was deemed unlike other natural assets: an inexhaustible resource. </p>
<p>Tourists and settlers gave weight to these claims. “The drawing card of Southern California,” a tourist from Chicago visiting Pasadena wrote in the Chicago Tribune in 1886, “is the beautiful, even climate.” Peninsula Florida was “blessed by nature with a semi-tropical climate,” a visitor wrote in the Atlanta Constitution in 1890. He saw its destiny to attract those who would “bask in the sunlight of a genial clime.”</p>
<p>This proved a compelling vision. In the 1880s, both Southern California and eastern Florida saw booms in settlement and tourism. Southern California’s population more than trebled during the decade to over 201,000, while peninsular Florida’s doubled to over 147,000. </p>
<p><iframe id="pWYUj" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pWYUj/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Affluent white Americans weighed up the merits of each: for citrus-growing, winter recuperation, land investment. The differences were, of course, numerous. One state was western, the other southern; one more mountainous, the other flat. Some boosters critiqued their subtropical rival’s climate. </p>
<p>Southern California was too arid, a writer in the Florida Dispatch claimed, a desert “parched for want of water.” Florida, meanwhile, had too much of the stuff, editorials in California replied: a wetland fit for reptiles but potentially deadly to new residents who would wilt in its torrid summers.</p>
<p>Yet Southern California and Florida became connected through economic futures founded upon climate promotion and related industries of citrus, tourism and real estate. If rivals, they shared distinct market ambitions. </p>
<p>“California and Florida can [together] control the citrus trade,” the Los Angeles Times declared in 1885, arguing for mutual benefits in the promotion of oranges. The pair had much to gain from persuading Americans to eat their fruit.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men stand next to a large billboard reading: 50 foot lots at altos Del Mar. $745 and up." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538205/original/file-20230719-17-kl9ahe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538205/original/file-20230719-17-kl9ahe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538205/original/file-20230719-17-kl9ahe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538205/original/file-20230719-17-kl9ahe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538205/original/file-20230719-17-kl9ahe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538205/original/file-20230719-17-kl9ahe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538205/original/file-20230719-17-kl9ahe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Swampland was drained for subdivisions across Florida in the early 20th century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Billboard_for_the_Sale_of_Subdivision_Real_Estate_Lots_WDL4030.png">State Library and Archives of Florida</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Developers in both also changed the landscape by rerouting water to create communities in once-inhospitable places. In California, the spread of irrigation to turn “desert into garden” enabled the growth of citrus towns such as Riverside, while <a href="https://digital-collections.csun.edu/digital/collection/SFVH/id/2487">vast aqueducts</a> conveyed water to thirsty cities like Los Angeles. </p>
<p>In Florida, flawed schemes sought to “reclaim” – essentially drain – wetlands, including the Everglades, where boosters like <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/Truck_Farming_in_the_Everglades/Cej6AAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover">Walter Waldin</a> sold Americans on a once-in-a-lifetime “opportunity to secure a home and a livelihood in this superb climate.”</p>
<h2>An inexhaustible resource</h2>
<p>The roaring ‘20s saw a new influx of sun-seeking, automobile-driving Americans drawn by boosters <a href="https://calisphere.org/item/f3a6852eb71dad0a09c79300a870fd84/">to the beaches</a> and <a href="https://www.floridamemory.com/items/show/157550">orange groves</a> of Los Angeles County and South Florida.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A drawing of a carnival midway with a Farris wheel, roller coaster, malt shop and ocean in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538209/original/file-20230719-573-yu20ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538209/original/file-20230719-573-yu20ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538209/original/file-20230719-573-yu20ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538209/original/file-20230719-573-yu20ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538209/original/file-20230719-573-yu20ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538209/original/file-20230719-573-yu20ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538209/original/file-20230719-573-yu20ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A postcard of a beachfront amusement park at Mission Beach in San Diego celebrates leisure time in sunny California in the 1930s or 1940s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Amusement_Center,_Mission_Beach,_San_Diego,_Calif_(79119).jpg">Boston Public Library Tichnor Brothers collection/Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Comparing Florida and California had become a national pastime as popular as mahjong and crossword puzzles, according to Robert Hodgson, a subtropical horticulturist at the University of California, in 1926. </p>
<p>Hodgson traveled to Florida to act as a judge at an agricultural show in Tampa where, the Los Angeles Times reported in a dig at Florida, he visited everything “from the dizziest pink stucco shore subdivision to the latest aspiring farming colony reclaimed from the alligators.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Rows of perfect orange trees beside a pristine lake" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538203/original/file-20230719-11357-f80mjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538203/original/file-20230719-11357-f80mjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538203/original/file-20230719-11357-f80mjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538203/original/file-20230719-11357-f80mjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538203/original/file-20230719-11357-f80mjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538203/original/file-20230719-11357-f80mjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538203/original/file-20230719-11357-f80mjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A postcard dated 1925 shows an orange grove in Florida.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%22An_Orange_Grove_in_Florida%22_(10724609885).jpg">State Library and Archives of Florida/Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Snipes aside, climate and the lifestyle they offered to middle-class Americans set Southern California and Florida apart. Hodgson wrote that they were similarly “blessed by the gods” through a “joint heritage of something like 90% of the subtropical climatic areas of the United States.”</p>
<p>Climate, moreover, was unlike other natural resources. Whereas precious metals or forests could be mined or cut down, climate was different: an infinite resource. It “can never be exhausted by man in his ignorance or cupidity,” he explained. </p>
<h2>Climate as crisis</h2>
<p>This history of climate-based advertising puts into stark relief the challenges faced by California and Florida in the era of climate crisis. </p>
<p>Today, both confront recurring natural disasters that are exacerbated by human-caused climate change: <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2213815120">wildfires in California</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-was-a-record-breaker-and-its-raising-more-concerns-about-climate-change-150495">hurricanes</a> and <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/recurrent-tidal-flooding.html">flooding in Florida</a>, and increasingly dangerous heat in both.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Palm trees stand above the wreckage of a fire-burned building and homes. The air is still smoky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538768/original/file-20230721-15-u8u6fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538768/original/file-20230721-15-u8u6fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538768/original/file-20230721-15-u8u6fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538768/original/file-20230721-15-u8u6fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538768/original/file-20230721-15-u8u6fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538768/original/file-20230721-15-u8u6fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538768/original/file-20230721-15-u8u6fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fire season has become an almost year-round threat in many parts of California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/trees-are-seen-through-the-haze-at-the-burnt-out-vista-del-news-photo/887220562">Mark Ralston/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Extensive <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fastest-population-growth-in-the-wests-wildland-urban-interface-is-in-areas-most-vulnerable-to-wildfires-173410">home-building in wildfire</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/coastal-home-buyers-are-ignoring-rising-flood-risks-despite-clear-warnings-and-rising-insurance-premiums-179603">coastal zones</a> has compounded these risks, with insurance companies now <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-insurance-companies-are-pulling-out-of-california-and-florida-and-how-to-fix-some-of-the-underlying-problems-207172">refusing coverage</a> for properties at risk of fires or storm damage, or making it prohibitively expensive. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a dress carrying her shoes and a man in red and white striped shorts walk down a street that is filled with water to above their ankles." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538769/original/file-20230721-19-df5a18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538769/original/file-20230721-19-df5a18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538769/original/file-20230721-19-df5a18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538769/original/file-20230721-19-df5a18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538769/original/file-20230721-19-df5a18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538769/original/file-20230721-19-df5a18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538769/original/file-20230721-19-df5a18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Street flooding during high tides has become more common in Miami Beach, Fla., as sea level rises. Hurricanes on top of higher seas are increasingly destructive.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-walk-through-a-flooded-street-that-was-caused-by-the-news-photo/490535380?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once marketed successfully as the United States’ two semitropical paradises, Southern California and Florida now share disturbing climate-influenced futures. </p>
<p>These futures bring into question how historic visions of economic growth and the sun-kissed good life that California and Florida have promised can be reconciled with climates that are no longer always genial or sustainable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207470/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henry Knight Lozano received funding from the United Kingdom's Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) as part of this research project.</span></em></p>From semitropical playgrounds to life-endangering climate risks: Going back over a century, California’s and Florida’s growth has been predicated on climate – and promises of the good life.Henry Knight Lozano, Senior Lecturer in American History & Director of Liberal Arts, University of ExeterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2116942023-08-21T04:03:14Z2023-08-21T04:03:14ZThe intergenerational report sets the scene for 2063 – but what is it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543626/original/file-20230821-23-t1wke.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=152%2C206%2C1595%2C859&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Treasurer Jim Chalmers is preparing to release the Treasury’s sixth <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/intergenerational-report">Intergenerational Report</a> on Thursday. </p>
<p>Whereas the first, in 2002, made projections out to 2042, this one will take us beyond the middle of the century, to 2062-63.</p>
<p>Already, Chalmers has spent some of the weekend pre-releasing headline numbers. More on those numbers later.</p>
<p>But first: what is the Intergenerational Report and why do we have it?</p>
<h2>What is an intergenerational report?</h2>
<p>Australia is one of many countries to produce such reports. They had their genesis in the 1980s, when much of the world became concerned that baby boomers (born in the years after the second world war) would be reaching older ages in the second decade of the 21st century. </p>
<p>At that time they would start leaving work and stop paying income tax. </p>
<p>But – and this was important – it was also the time they would also be needing more taxpayer-funded health care and aged care.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543590/original/file-20230821-93007-8pdupj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543590/original/file-20230821-93007-8pdupj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543590/original/file-20230821-93007-8pdupj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543590/original/file-20230821-93007-8pdupj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543590/original/file-20230821-93007-8pdupj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543590/original/file-20230821-93007-8pdupj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1214&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543590/original/file-20230821-93007-8pdupj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1214&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543590/original/file-20230821-93007-8pdupj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1214&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/ageing/documents/Resources/VIPEE-English.pdf">United Nations, 1982</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1982, the United Nations held a World Assembly to discuss these challenges. By the mid-1990s, four countries – New Zealand, Norway, the United Kingdom and the
United States – were producing <a href="https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/n10874/pdf/ch02.pdf">long-term fiscal projections</a>. </p>
<p>In 1998 the Australian parliament made a similar commitment, legislating the Orwellian-sounding <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2012C00230">Charter of Budget Honesty</a>. This required an intergenerational report within every five years to assess where Australia will be in 40 years’ time.</p>
<p>To date, Australia’s five reports have focused on the key drivers of economic growth, including the size and structure of the population, workforce participation, and productivity. </p>
<p>Some big expenditure items have also been looked into, including the three big supports of the care economy: health care, aged care and disability care. More recently, interest payments and defence spending have also gained prominence. These analyses have allowed the Treasury to compare the proportion of national income it is spending now with the proportion it is likely to be spending in 40 years’ time.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Extract from 2021 Intergenerational Report</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543600/original/file-20230821-189669-uuhih1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543600/original/file-20230821-189669-uuhih1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543600/original/file-20230821-189669-uuhih1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543600/original/file-20230821-189669-uuhih1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543600/original/file-20230821-189669-uuhih1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543600/original/file-20230821-189669-uuhih1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543600/original/file-20230821-189669-uuhih1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543600/original/file-20230821-189669-uuhih1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2021-intergenerational-report">Commonwealth Treasury</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>Some things included, others not</h2>
<p>I am one of a number of public policy experts who have just published a book, <a href="https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/more-than-fiscal#tabanchor">More than Fiscal</a>, analysing the strengths and weaknesses of Australia’s 2021 Intergenerational Report.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543608/original/file-20230821-182625-aa4h9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543608/original/file-20230821-182625-aa4h9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543608/original/file-20230821-182625-aa4h9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543608/original/file-20230821-182625-aa4h9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543608/original/file-20230821-182625-aa4h9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543608/original/file-20230821-182625-aa4h9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1216&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543608/original/file-20230821-182625-aa4h9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1216&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543608/original/file-20230821-182625-aa4h9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1216&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/more-than-fiscal#tabanchor">ANU Press, June 2023</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While we concluded it had some value, we also identified significant shortcomings.</p>
<p>One was that nearly all of the reports to date have been very narrow in their scope. Many of the issues the public wants addressed have been missing. </p>
<p>Apart from the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2010-igr">2010</a> report, produced by the Rudd Labor government, the reports have included little about climate change, or about such other topics as social and economic inequality, housing availability and affordability.</p>
<p>They have said little about the performance of our cities, life in regional and rural Australia, geopolitical tensions and coping with natural disasters.</p>
<p>One clue that this year’s intergenerational report might be an improvement is Chalmers’ reference at his <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/transcripts">press conference on Monday</a> to a report that would build our understanding of five big shifts, from </p>
<blockquote>
<p>globalisation to fragmentation, from hydrocarbons to renewables, from information technology to artificial intelligence, from younger to older, and what that means them for our industrial base and in particular for a bigger role for the care economy</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And yet a flurry of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/care-economy-to-balloon-in-an-australia-of-40-5-million-intergenerational-report-211876">backgroundings</a>” issued over the weekend have largely served to update data on the topics the report usually covers. </p>
<p>Population growth is projected to slow, but is expected to reach 40 million by the early 2060s. As predicted in previous intergenerational reports, Australia will have a greater proportion of older people. </p>
<p>The budget pressures identified in previous reports – health care, aged care, disability care, interest payments and defence spending – are projected to grow from one-third of total Commonwealth government spending today to one-half of all Commonwealth government spending by 2062-63. </p>
<p>The care economy in particular is expected to almost double from around 8% GDP to around 15% in 2062–63. Further pre-announcements are expected over the next few days.</p>
<h2>Too political, and still lacking input from Australians</h2>
<p>Another serious concern identified by the expert group is that the reports have at times shown a decidedly political bias. In 2015, this went as far as making projections based on the Abbott government’s unlegislated policy and contrasting them with projections made if the policies weren’t adopted.</p>
<p>Yet another is that the reports have been focused on Commonwealth government spending. This is despite Australia being a federation, in which the states and territories play a very significant role – including running hospitals and schools and having responsibility for legislation relating to housing.</p>
<p>There is no sign Treasurer Chalmers will address these concerns this time, despite solutions being fairly easy to implement.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/intergenerational-reports-ought-to-spark-action-as-well-as-scare-us-163505">Intergenerational reports ought to spark action, as well as scare us</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The next intergenerational report will be published in three years, as Chalmers has increased the frequency to <a href="https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/n10874/pdf/ch11.pdf">once every three years</a>. It would be great if that and future reports were prepared by an independent body, such as the Productivity Commission, and spanned the full range of government activity across all jurisdictions.</p>
<p>A final thought centres on a key role for the intergenerational reports – to generate widespread discussion about the direction Australia is taking. </p>
<p>Why not require the independent body issue a draft report, which could be debated by all parts of society, with that public input taken into account in the final publication?</p>
<p>Thursday’s report has already fallen short of what it could have been, but there will be another one – and fairly soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211694/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Woods is a Professor of Health Economics at the University of Technology Sydney and was a former Deputy Chair of the Productivity Commission. He currently receives funding from governments and organisations in relation to ageing research. </span></em></p>Australia’s past reports have been largely ignored big issues like housing and climate change. Ahead of the latest report’s release, here’s what we’re still missing – including giving you a say.Michael Woods, Professor of Health Economics, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2118762023-08-20T12:31:49Z2023-08-20T12:31:49Z‘Care’ economy to balloon in an Australia of 40.5 million: Intergenerational Report<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543563/original/file-20230820-101875-efbsyz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=928%2C401%2C2910%2C1640&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s care economy could increase from its present about 8% of GDP to about 15% in 40 years, according to the government’s Intergenerational Report, to be released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Thursday.</p>
<p>The projections say in four decades’ time Australians will be living longer, with more years in good health - but the larger cohort of aged people will increase the need for care.</p>
<p>By 2062-63, life expectancy for men is projected to be 87 years (currently 81.3), and for women 89.5 (85.2).</p>
<p>Australia’s population is expected to grow at a slower rate in the coming four decades than in any 40 year period since federation, according to the report, prepared by the federal treasury. By 2062-63 Australia would have a population of 40.5 million. </p>
<p>The Intergenerational Report puts a long lens on the nation’s future, looking at the implications of demographic changes and covering a broad range of economic and social areas. The first report was done under the Howard government and the most recent in 2021. While these reports are important for policy makers in identifying trends and signposting looming problems, they are also limited by the extended time frame and the inevitability of changing circumstances and different policies.</p>
<p>This year’s report again highlights the economic and budgetary issues presented by an ageing population. The combination of increased longevity and low fertility means Australia will continue to age over the next four decades. “The number of people aged 65 and over will more than double and the number aged 85 and over will more than triple,” the report says. This will make for “an ongoing economic and fiscal challenge”.</p>
<p>“The average annual population growth rate is projected to slow to 1.1% over the next 40 years, compared to 1.4% for the past 40 years,” the report says. “Australia’s population is projected to reach 40.5 million in 2062–63.” </p>
<p>Present projections are for the number of health care and social assistance workers to increase by 15.8% from 2021 to 2026. The former National Skills Commission projected the demand for aged care workers alone was expected to double by 2050. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543557/original/file-20230820-177767-jqcbca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543557/original/file-20230820-177767-jqcbca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543557/original/file-20230820-177767-jqcbca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543557/original/file-20230820-177767-jqcbca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543557/original/file-20230820-177767-jqcbca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543557/original/file-20230820-177767-jqcbca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543557/original/file-20230820-177767-jqcbca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543557/original/file-20230820-177767-jqcbca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extract from 2023 Intergenerational Report.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Commonwealth Treasury</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Chalmers said the report showed growth in the care economy “is set to be one of the most prominent shifts in our society” over the period, with the care sectors playing a bigger role in driving growth. </p>
<p>“Whether it’s health care, aged care, disabilities or early childhood education – we’ll need more well-trained workers to meet the growing demand for quality care over the next 40 years. The care sector is where the lion’s share of opportunities in our economy will be created,” he said.</p>
<p>The report projects population growth to fall to 0.8% in 2062–63. </p>
<p>Both migration and natural increase are expected to fall relative to the size of the population. Net migration is assumed at 235,000 a year. </p>
<p>“The 2023–24 Budget forecast that net overseas migration will recover in the near term due to the temporary catch‑up from the pandemic. It is expected to largely return to normal patterns from 2024-25. Even with the near‑term recovery, on current forecasts, cumulative net overseas migration would not catch up to pre‑pandemic levels until 2029-30,” the report says. </p>
<p>“Over the next 40 years, net overseas migration is expected to account for 0.7 percentage points of Australia’s average annual population growth, falling from 1.0 percentage points in 2024–25 to 0.6 percentage points by 2062–63.”</p>
<p>On budgetary pressures, the report follows a familiar theme. “The main five long‑term spending pressures are health and aged care, the NDIS, defence, and interest payments on Government debt. Combined, these spending categories are projected to increase by 5.6 percentage points of GDP over the 40 years from 2022–23 to 2062–63.”</p>
<p>On the crucial issue of productivity, which has languished for years, the report downgrades the assumption for productivity growth “from its 30-year average of around 1.5% to the recent 20-year average of around 1.2%. </p>
<p>"Placing more weight on recent history better reflects headwinds to productivity growth, such as continued structural change towards service industries, the costs of climate change, and diminishing returns from past reforms. This downgrade is consistent with forecasts in other advanced economies.”</p>
<p>The report points to areas where there are opportunities to lift productivity growth.</p>
<p>These include reforms to reduce entry and exist barriers for firms, facilitating the diffusion of technology, and encouraging labour mobility. It also highlights the potential of digital innovations, including artificial intelligence. </p>
<p>On human capital, the report says, “The jobs of the future will require increasingly specialised skillsets and there is potential to support Australians at all stages of their human capital development. Promotion of foundational skills – such as in literacy and numeracy – at an early age will facilitate participation in the expanding knowledge economy over the next 40 years.”</p>
<p>Chalmers said the report “will make the critical point that the trajectory or productivity growth in the future is not a foregone conclusion, and it will depend on how we respond to the big shifts impacting our economy”.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the Business Council of Australia is unveiling a reform plan, titled Seize the Moment, for ways to reverse Australia’s “productivity slump” and boost competitiveness. It claims if implemented the reform package would “leave each Australian $7000 better off a year after a decade”. </p>
<p>Among its multiple proposals, the BCA says there should be “broad-based reform of the tax system to minimise distortions and increase incentives to invest, innovate and hire”.</p>
<p>It also says federal and state governments should commit to a “10-year national net zero roadmap based on a whole-of-system approach to decarbonising the economy to 2050”. It calls for more action to increase women’s economic participation, a more flexible industrial relations system, “a coherent system of lifelong learning”, and an agenda for microeconomic reform.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211876/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Intergenerational Report puts a long lens on the nation’s future, looking at the implications of demographic changes and covering a broad range of economic and social areasMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2094202023-07-11T16:37:32Z2023-07-11T16:37:32ZDRC has one of the fastest growing populations in the world – why this isn’t good news<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536580/original/file-20230710-16123-co1r02.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The demographic profile of a country matters because it sets its development pace – it creates opportunities and presents risks. For many developing countries, the challenge is to manage a demographic profile that puts pressure on particular cohorts of people. One country that needs to manage this challenge is the Democratic Republic of Congo. Jacques Emina, who has <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jacques-Emina">studied demography</a> in the country for the last two decades, unpacks the numbers.</em> </p>
<h2>What are the DRC’s demographic challenges? What’s driving them?</h2>
<p>With <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/COD/democratic-republic-of-congo/population">102 million</a> people in 2023, the Democratic Republic of Congo is the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-in-africa">fourth most populous country in Africa</a> after Nigeria, Ethiopia and Egypt. It’s the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/">15th most populous</a> country in the world. </p>
<p>It’s estimated that by 2050, the DRC will have <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf#page=9">215 million people</a> and join the world’s 10 most populated countries. This isn’t so surprising, given the size of the country: <a href="https://ins.cd/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ANNUAIRE-STATISTIQUE-2020.pdf#page=30">2.3 million square kilometres</a>, making it the second-largest country in Africa (behind Algeria).</p>
<p>The country’s population reflects higher-than-average growth compared to other countries on the continent. The DRC’s population grew by <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/COD/democratic-republic-of-congo/population-growth-rate">3.3% in 2022</a>. The continent’s average was <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf#page=17">2.5%</a>. The average world population growth rate was <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf#page=17">0.8% in 2022</a>. </p>
<p>The DRC’s growing population has serious consequences for the wellbeing of its people. Without policies that take account of the country’s demographic profile – a growing population and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Republic-of-the-Congo/Demographic-trends">a very high number of young people versus working age people</a> – social conditions like poverty and hunger will increase.</p>
<p>There are two main reasons for the high population growth: a decrease in deaths and a high number of births. </p>
<p>Over the past decades, the DRC has seen a consistent drop in <a href="https://data.unicef.org/country/cod/">under-five mortality</a>, though this is still relatively high compared to the world average. In 1995, under-five mortality was estimated at 175 deaths per 1,000 births. This dropped to 87 deaths per 1,000 births in 2018. In the same year the <a href="https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-survival/under-five-mortality/">global under-five mortality rate</a> stood at 40 deaths per 1,000 births.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/democratic-republic-of-the-congo-demographics/#life-exp">Life expectancy in the DRC</a> has also increased from 49 years in 1995 to 62 years in 2023. The current global life expectancy is <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/">73 years</a>.</p>
<p>When it comes to numbers of births, Congolese women average <a href="https://www.prb.org/international/indicator/fertility/table">6.2 babies</a> in their lifetimes. This is four births more than the global average of 2.3 babies. </p>
<p>The DRC’s fertility rate is driven by four major factors.</p>
<p>Firstly, cultural values encourage people to have children. Large families are celebrated. The country’s most recent <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/sr218/sr218.e.pdf">demographic and health survey</a> found that Congolese women on average wanted <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/sr218/sr218.e.pdf#page=6">six children</a>; men wanted seven. </p>
<p>Secondly, an early start to childbearing means more years of giving birth. <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/sr218/sr218.e.pdf#page=6">More than 30% of girls</a> in the DRC are married before they turn 18. About a quarter of young women give birth by their 18th birthday compared to <a href="https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-health/adolescent-health/">14% worldwide</a>. And <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/sr218/sr218.e.pdf#page=5">27%</a> of adolescent Congolese girls aged 15-19 have children. </p>
<p>Thirdly, <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/sr218/sr218.e.pdf#page=7">very few women use contraception</a> in the DRC. The percentage of women of reproductive age who use an effective form of modern contraception was estimated at around <a href="https://www.unicef.org/drcongo/media/3646/file/COD-MICS-Palu-2018.pdf#page=107">7% in 2018</a>. This was up from 4% in 2007. </p>
<p>The fourth factor driving population growth is the absence of a national population policy. This typically includes a set of measures designed to influence population dynamics. </p>
<h2>What impact is this having?</h2>
<p>The DRC’s galloping demography has several implications.</p>
<p>The first is a high dependency ratio. This is when there are far more economically dependent people than economically active ones because of the demographic age profile of the country. The economically active population faces a greater burden to support economically dependent people, particularly children. Children under the age of 15 account for <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Republic-of-the-Congo/Demographic-trends">41.6%</a> of the DRC’s total population. This indicates that employed people aged 15-64 bear a heavy burden amid <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/drc/overview">low incomes</a>. </p>
<p>The country also faces significant planning challenges. <a href="https://www.unicef.org/drcongo/en/what-we-do/education">School attendance rates</a> increased from 52% in 2001 to 78% in 2018. Nevertheless, <a href="https://www.unicef.org/drcongo/en/what-we-do/education">7.6 million children aged 5-17 are still out of school</a>. </p>
<p>The DRC lags behind in other key human development measures.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>It’s among the five poorest nations in the world. In 2022, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/drc/overview">62% of Congolese (60 million people)</a> lived under the poverty line (less than US$2.15 a day). About one in six people living in extreme poverty in sub-Saharan Africa lives in the DRC. </p></li>
<li><p>The country has faced <a href="https://theconversation.com/military-interventions-have-failed-to-end-drcs-conflict-whats-gone-wrong-205586">political unrest and armed conflicts</a> for six decades. The <a href="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/GPI-2023-Web.pdf">2023 Global Peace Index</a> – which measures the relative peacefulness of nations and regions – lists the DRC as <a href="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/GPI-2023-Web.pdf#page=11">one of the least peaceful countries</a> in the world after Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria and South Sudan.</p></li>
<li><p>The country has one of the <a href="https://data.unicef.org/topic/maternal-health/maternal-mortality/">world’s highest maternal mortality ratios</a> at 547 deaths per 100,000 live births. The global average is 223 deaths per 100,000 live births. </p></li>
<li><p>It’s one of the world’s hungriest countries. Its <a href="https://www.globalhungerindex.org/">Global Hunger Index</a> score – which measures and tracks levels of hunger globally – stands at <a href="https://www.globalhungerindex.org/drc.html">37.8</a>, which is tagged as “alarming”. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What interventions are needed?</h2>
<p>A country’s population profile can offer opportunities, or what’s known as a demographic dividend. This is when a high percentage of people are young and there are jobs for them. </p>
<p>But the DRC is missing out on this opportunity and will continue to do so unless it:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>invests in human capital by improving its education and health systems. Most Congolese are <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/can-t-afford-be-sick-assessing-cost-ill-health-north-kivu-eastern">paying out of their own pockets</a> for healthcare. Education is free, but the <a href="https://2017-2020.usaid.gov/democratic-republic-congo/education">system is weak</a> due to low budget allocations.</p></li>
<li><p>designs a population policy to guide population dynamics. This would include policies on birth, migration and where people live. These should be linked to an integrated national development policy.</p></li>
<li><p>makes progress on gender equality. This should include increasing the enrolment of girls in high schools, discouraging child marriage and enabling young mothers to attend school.</p></li>
<li><p>improves governance and tackles corruption to promote investment in education, health and employment.</p></li>
<li><p>creates data systems that can underpin evidence-based policies.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209420/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacques Emina does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Without policies that take account of a growing population with few working-age people, DRC risks seeing an increase in poverty and hunger.Jacques Emina, Professor of population and development studies, University of Kinshasa Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073172023-06-22T08:45:54Z2023-06-22T08:45:54ZCities are central to our future – they have the power to make, or break, society’s advances<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530867/original/file-20230608-3016-2sh956.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dharavi slum in India. Billions of people live in terrible conditions in the world's cities.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Punit Paranje/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We live in tumultuous times. In the space of just a few years, we have witnessed a surge in <a href="https://ppr.lse.ac.uk/articles/10.31389/lseppr.4">populist politics across the world</a>, a <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019">global pandemic</a>, a spike in <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/weather-related-disasters-increase-over-past-50-years-causing-more-damage-fewer">environmental disasters</a> and a fraying of geopolitical relations demonstrated by the <a href="https://www.ft.com/war-in-ukraine">tragic war in Ukraine</a> and <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden">escalating tensions over Taiwan</a>.</p>
<p>That has all occurred against a backdrop of dramatic technological changes that are fundamentally altering the way we work and relate to one another. </p>
<p>Our future is in the balance. Cities will be central to our fate, for two reasons. </p>
<p>First, they are now home to <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopment/overview#:%7E:text=Today%2C%20some%2056%25%20of%20the,billion%20inhabitants%20%E2%80%93%20live%20in%20cities">over half of the global population</a>, a share that will rise to <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">two-thirds by 2050</a>. That is something never before seen in human history, and means that the forces shaping life in cities now also shape our world as a whole. </p>
<p>Second, cities throughout history have been the engines of human progress. Cities are where solutions are found – but also where perils are amplified when we fail to act.</p>
<p>This article draws on a book I co-authored with Tom Lee-Devlin, <a href="https://linktr.ee/ageofthecity">Age of the City: Why our Future will be Won or Lost Together</a>, which has just been published by Bloomsbury. As the book’s subtitle highlights, we need to ensure that we create more inclusive and sustainable cities if all our societies are to thrive. </p>
<h2>Cities as seats of populist revolt</h2>
<p>The great paradox of modern globalisation is that declining friction in the movement of people, goods and information has made where you live more important than ever. Appreciation of the complexity of globalisation has come a long way since the early 2000s, when American political commentator Thomas Friedman’s <a href="https://www.amazon.com/World-Flat-History-Twenty-first-Century/dp/0374292884">The World is Flat </a> and British academic Frances Cairncross’s <a href="https://hbswk.hbs.edu/archive/the-death-of-distance-how-the-communications-revolution-is-changing-our-lives-distance-isn-t-what-it-used-to-be">The Death of Distance</a> captured the public’s imagination. </p>
<p>We now know that, far from making the world flat, globalisation has made it spiky. </p>
<p>The growing concentration of wealth and power in major urban metropolises is toxifying our politics. The wave of populist politics engulfing many countries is often built on anger against cosmopolitan urban elites. This has been given expression through <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887">Brexit in Britain</a>, and in support for anti-establishment politicians in the US, France, Italy, Sweden and other countries. </p>
<p>A common thread of all these populist movements is the notion that mainstream politicians, business leaders and media figures cocooned in big cities have let the rest of their countries down and lost interest in “left behind” places and people. </p>
<p>These populist revolts against dynamic cities are rooted in real grievances based on stagnating wages and soaring inequality. </p>
<p>A transformational effort to spread economic opportunity is long overdue. But undermining dynamic cities is not the way to do that. Cities like London, New York and Paris – and in the developing world Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Jakarta, Shanghai, Cairo, Johannesburg and Lagos – are engines of economic growth and job creation without which their respective national economies would be crippled.</p>
<p>What’s more, many of these cities continue to harbour profound inequalities of their own, driven by wildly unaffordable housing and broken education systems, among other things. They are also in a state of flux, thanks to the rise of remote working.</p>
<p>In places like San Francisco, offices and shops are suffering, municipal taxes are declining and businesses that depend on intense footfall – from barbers to buskers – are under threat. So too are public transport systems, many of which depend on mass commuting and are haemorrhaging cash.</p>
<p>All countries, therefore, are in dire need of a new urban agenda, grounded in an appreciation of the power of large cities – when designed properly – to not just drive economic activity and creativity, but also bring together people from many different walks of life, building social cohesion and combating loneliness. </p>
<p>But our focus must extend beyond the rich world. It is in developing countries where most of the growth in cities and the world’s population is taking place. Overcoming poverty, addressing the Sustainable Development Goals and addressing climate change, pandemics and other threats requires that we find solutions in cities around the world. </p>
<h2>Dangers posed for cities in the developing world</h2>
<p>Developing countries now account for most of the world’s city-dwellers, thanks to decades of dramatic urban growth.</p>
<p>In some cases, such as China, rapid urbanisation has been the result of a process of economic modernisation that has lifted large swathes of the population out of poverty. </p>
<p>In others, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, urbanisation and economic development have been disconnected, with rural deprivation and the flight from danger playing a greater role in the migration to cities than urban opportunity. </p>
<p>Either way, cities are now where the world’s poor are choosing to live. And many of their cities are giant and overcrowded, with residents too often living in appalling conditions. </p>
<p>Appreciating what is happening in the cities of the developing world is essential if poverty is to be overcome. It also is vital if we are to understand why contagious diseases are making a comeback. Modern pandemics, from HIV to COVID-19, have their origins in these cities. </p>
<p>Crowded conditions are coinciding with a number of other trends in poor countries, including rapid deforestation, intensive livestock farming and the consumption of bushmeat, to increase the risk of diseases transferring from animals to humans and gaining a foothold in the population. </p>
<p>From there, connectivity between the world’s cities, particularly via airports, makes them a catalyst for the global dissemination of deadly diseases. That means that dreadful living conditions in many developing world cities are not only a pressing humanitarian and development issue, but also a matter of global public health. </p>
<p>Tremendous progress has been made in the past two centuries in <a href="https://wellcome.org/news/reforming-infectious-disease-research-development-ecosystem">combating infectious diseases</a>, but the tide is turning against us. Cities will be the principal battleground for the fight ahead. </p>
<p>Cities are also where humanity’s battle against climate change will be won or lost. Ocean rise, depletion of vital water resources and urban heatwaves risk making many cities uninhabitable. Coastal cities, which account for nearly all global urban growth, are particularly vulnerable. </p>
<p>While rich cities such as Miami, Dubai and Amsterdam are threatened, developing world cities such as Mumbai, Jakarta and Lagos are even more vulnerable due to the cost of developing sea walls, drainage systems and other protective measures. </p>
<p>At the same time, cities, <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/cutting-global-carbon-emissions-where-do-cities-stand">which account for 70% of global emissions</a>, will be at the heart of efforts to mitigate climate change. From encouraging public transport use and the adoption of electric vehicles to developing better systems for heating and waste management, there is much they need to do.</p>
<p>In 1987, Margaret Thatcher is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/apr/08/margaret-thatcher-quotes">reported to have declared</a>: “There is no such thing as society”, only “individual men and women and families”. In fact, <em>Homo sapiens</em> is a social creature, and our collective prosperity depends on the strength of the bonds between us. If we are to survive the turmoil that lies ahead, we must rediscover our ability to act together. Since their emergence five millennia ago, cities have been central to that. We cannot afford to let them fail.</p>
<p><em>Ian Goldin and Tom Lee-Devlin, <a href="https://linktr.ee/ageofthecity">Age of the City: Why our Future will be Won or Lost Together, Bloomsbury, June 2023</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207317/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Goldin receives funding from Citibank, and the Allan and Gill Gray Foundation.
</span></em></p>Cities are where solutions are found – but also where perils are amplified when we fail to act.Ian Goldin, Professor of Globalisation and Development; Director of the Oxford Martin Programmes on Technological and Economic Change, The Future of Work and the Future of Development, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073122023-06-21T02:20:41Z2023-06-21T02:20:41ZCOVID didn’t change internal migration as much as claimed, new ABS data show<p>At its height, the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/population-change-2020">disrupted</a> well-established patterns of migration within Australia. Reports of a <a href="https://newsroom.kpmg.com.au/covid-19s-impact-population-growth-regional-renaissance-melbourne-sydney-decline/">regional renaissance</a> suggested city dwellers were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-02/abs-data-confirms-city-exodus-during-covid/13112868">moving to regional areas</a> in droves. The governments of Tasmania, South Australia and the Northern Territory were also keen to promote new migration flows to reverse long-standing declines in their shares of the national population.</p>
<p>Advice from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) that internal migration numbers were “<a href="https://population.gov.au/data-and-forecasts/key-data-releases/national-state-and-territory-population-september-2021">implausibly high</a>” received less attention. The ABS suspended these data releases due to this concern. Its latest <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/dec-2022#states-and-territories">population data release</a> uses a revised model for <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/detailed-methodology-information/information-papers/2021-census-update-net-interstate-migration-mode">net interstate migration</a>. </p>
<p>These data indicate a new normal rather than a renaissance for South Australia, the Northern Territory and Tasmania. </p>
<p>Internal migration losses for capital cities have also slowed.</p>
<iframe title="Components of population change by state and territory" aria-label="Grouped Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-dV3D1" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dV3D1/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lets-just-do-it-how-do-e-changers-feel-about-having-left-the-city-now-lockdowns-are-over-188009">'Let's just do it': how do e-changers feel about having left the city now lockdowns are over?</a>
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<h2>So what was going on?</h2>
<p>In reality, the data present a different story to the popular narrative. Pandemic-era <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">ABS data</a> for 2020 showed increased growth in non-metropolitan areas was due more to retaining residents than attracting new ones. </p>
<p>This is unsurprising. Much of Australia was in lockdown, restricting movement, and case numbers were highest in the capital cities. The historical main reasons for leaving regional areas – education and/or jobs – were no longer viable options. </p>
<p>In 2020, interstate migration fell by 29%. In 2021, it increased on paper by 45% compared with 2020. </p>
<p>However, the ABS advised this large increase was mainly due to people updating their addresses with Medicare during mass vaccination rollouts. The distorting effect of these belated updates prompted the ABS to suspend the release of regional internal migration estimates. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/2021-census-overcount-and-undercount/latest-release">under-counts and over-counts</a> identified from the 2021 census show just how far off estimates of population and migration were for some areas. The ABS has <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/detailed-methodology-information/information-papers/2021-census-update-net-interstate-migration-model">revised its methodology</a>, based on the census findings and updated Medicare data. </p>
<p>Last week, the ABS released details of its new assumptions for modelling interstate migration with the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/dec-2022#states-and-territories">latest population data</a> for the last quarter of 2022. Under this model, total interstate migration for 2022 fell 21%, compared with 2021, to levels similar to those of 2016. </p>
<p>As for movement between capital cities and regional areas within states, we have <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release#key-statistics">data for four quarters</a> since March 2022 when the ABS resumed releases. (“Regional areas” include large centres like the Gold Coast, Geelong and Newcastle.) The numbers moving to greater capital cities have been increasing, and the numbers leaving have been declining. Even so, more people are still leaving capital cities than arriving (excluding overseas arrivals). </p>
<iframe title="Population changes by capital city for year to June 30 2022" aria-label="Grouped Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-ByYH4" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ByYH4/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/has-covid-really-caused-an-exodus-from-our-cities-in-fact-moving-to-the-regions-is-nothing-new-154724">Has COVID really caused an exodus from our cities? In fact, moving to the regions is nothing new</a>
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<h2>What does this mean for state and territory populations?</h2>
<p>The revised data allow us to assess migration flows between states and territories for the last quarter of 2022 as well as back through time, including the pandemic. </p>
<p>In the peak pandemic year of 2020, South Australia recorded a net gain from interstate migration. The then premier <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/brain-drain-from-south-australia-reverses-again-abs-figures-show/news-story/3c7ebb08c67603a5f050dbcab2368d26">attributed</a> the reversal of the state’s brain drain to its “performance in containing COVID, accelerating industrial transformation and strong jobs growth”. </p>
<p>A closer look at the data shows the upward trend began well before the pandemic. The net loss due to interstate migration had decreased from -7,693 in 2017 to -2,885 in 2019. </p>
<p>The pandemic did accelerate this trend. Early in the pandemic, the net gain of 2,348 people in SA was driven by retention of people. Arrivals fell by 21.7%, but the decrease in departures was larger at 35.4%. In 2021, the net gain of 2,310 people was slightly smaller as arrivals increased by 43.6% and departures by 48.5%. </p>
<p>In 2022, however, the net gain was only 670 people. This suggests a return to net interstate migration losses is possible. </p>
<p>The revised data for the Northern Territory show a consistent net population loss to interstate migration of about 2,100 in the five years leading up to the pandemic. Then, in 2020, interstate arrivals fell considerably but departures fell even more. The result was a small net gain of 110. </p>
<p>When the territory’s borders reopened in 2021, both arrivals and departures surged to 1.5 times the average of the five years to 2020 at 16,992 arrivals and 19,298 departures. But in 2022 both figures wound back to 14% below the five-year pre-COVID average. Departures once again outstripped arrivals, by 2,120, very close to the average net loss of 2,306 for those five years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-boost-australias-north-to-5-million-people-without-a-proper-plan-125063">You can't boost Australia's north to 5 million people without a proper plan</a>
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<p>The Tasmanian government is refreshing its <a href="https://www.stategrowth.tas.gov.au/policies_and_strategies/populationstrategy">2015 Population Growth Strategy</a> and plans to appoint a <a href="https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/speeches/state-of-the-state-address">state demographer</a>. In November 2021, the then premier <a href="https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/speeches/ceda_state_of_the_state_address3">declared</a> people were “knocking on the door, and knocking loudly” to move to the state. This was not the case. </p>
<p>In 2020, interstate arrivals fell by 18% and departures by 28%. The state’s net gain was 2,633. For 2021, at the time of the vaccination rollout, arrivals increased by 39% and departures by 53%, resulting in a smaller net gain. For 2022, arrivals fell by 30% and departures by 16%, for a net loss of 941 people. </p>
<p>This reverses a seven-year period of interstate migration gains for Tasmania. With the lowest growth since 2015, the state has returned to the times before a population growth strategy. The level of natural increase (births minus deaths) is the lowest on record. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-cant-only-rely-on-a-growing-population-for-an-economic-boost-91236">Tasmania can't only rely on a growing population for an economic boost</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Getting the numbers right matters for us all</h2>
<p>Claiming a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/covidinduced-renaissance-for-regional-property-spikes/news-story/2a2dc5295aa0c28decc3a76579668bea">population resurgence</a> may help promote confidence for regions experiencing challenges from population ageing, economic performance and/or remoteness. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-do-small-rural-communities-often-shun-newcomers-even-when-they-need-them-199984">Why do small rural communities often shun newcomers, even when they need them?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The problem with such populist narratives is they may also jeopardise the development of good policy, programs and infrastructure for key services such as housing, health and education. Funding could end up going to areas with less relative need. </p>
<p>These narratives may also muddy the already <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-fires-warning-at-albanese-over-sweetheart-gst-deals-20230314-p5cryx.html">contentious distribution</a> of GST revenue to the states and territories. In addition, population numbers affect how many seats each state and territory has in the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>We need reliable and robust data to make informed decisions. This is why we should all take personal responsibility for promptly updating our home addresses with Medicare when we move. Although this might not seem urgent for individuals, not doing so may mean their share of services and infrastructure falls short of what it might otherwise be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207312/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Denny has received funding from the Tasmanian Department of State Growth in the past. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Taylor receives funding from the Northern Territory Department of Treasury and Finance. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Tan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest revised data challenge the popular narrative about a population renaissance for regional Australia and for states and territories that were losing residents to other parts of the country.Lisa Denny, Adjunct Associate Professor, Institute for Social Change, University of TasmaniaAndrew Taylor, Associate Professor, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityGeorge Tan, Lecturer in Population Geography, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2040042023-05-10T13:21:45Z2023-05-10T13:21:45ZChina’s population has peaked and is now falling – opportunities and risks for Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523175/original/file-20230427-14-z7x5fr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Oleg Elkov/GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>China will no longer be the world’s most populous nation. India’s population <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/World-Population-Prospects-2022.">will overtake it</a> this year at an <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/un-desa-policy-brief-no-153-india-overtakes-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country/">estimated population</a> of 1.42 billion. </p>
<p>It’s an epochal transition which speaks to other underlying demographic changes across the world, including the fact that China’s population <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-population-decline-not-yet-crisis-beijings-response-could-make-it-one">has peaked</a> and is now falling. Meanwhile, the region with the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population">fastest-rising population</a> – from a current base of <a href="https://www.un.org/annualreport/files/2022/09/SG-Annual-Report-2022_E_3.pdf#page=2">around 1.4 billion</a> – is Africa. </p>
<p>I have <a href="https://saiia.org.za/people/lauren-johnston/">researched</a> the economics of China, and China-Africa relations, for nearly two decades. I’ve also specifically analysed the political economy of demographic change in China. </p>
<p>On the surface, China losing the “world’s most populous country” crown means nothing for African countries. However, as I outline in <a href="https://saiia.org.za/research/chinas-demographic-peak-lessons-and-prospects-for-africa/">my new paper</a>, the transition embodies a number of opportunities and risks for many African countries. </p>
<p>China has been a leading economic partner to the continent for most of this century. Demand for China’s manufactured goods <a href="http://www.sais-cari.org/data-china-africa-trade">is consistent</a> across the continent. It is an especially important import partner for some of Africa’s resource-rich countries, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260598975_The_Gravity_of_China's_African_Export_Promise#page=7">such as</a> Angola, Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia. A slow-down in China’s economy – or a shift away from commodity-intensive manufacturing and infrastructure construction – could especially challenge African commodity exporters whose main buyer is China, such as <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/08/18/mounting-economic-challenges-threaten-basis-of-mpla-rule-in-angola-pub-87698">Angola</a>.</p>
<p>So, as China’s population declines and ages, there’ll be direct and indirect repercussions for many African countries. Here are some of the possible implications. </p>
<h2>Opportunities</h2>
<p><strong>End of labour-richness</strong></p>
<p>African countries with a large working-age population can theoretically benefit from the end of China’s period of labour-abundance. China had <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2018.1509529">a massive number of low-wage workers from the 1980s until the 2000s</a>. The broad passing of this abundance – in terms of both price and quantity – theoretically opens a window for other “younger” and low-wage economies. Labour-rich countries already banging on China’s door include Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam. </p>
<p>African countries wanting to take advantage of this will need relevant policies. They will need enough qualified workers to take part in manufacturing opportunities; affordable and reliable energy; and competitive labour productivity. Ethiopia, for instance, has been attracting <a href="https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/109166/1/MPRA_paper_109166.pdf#page=5">Chinese foreign direct investment</a> in recent decades with more than 70% going into manufacturing.</p>
<p><strong>Increased service demand</strong></p>
<p>For a decade or more, China has also been pushing, if very incrementally, for <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8462.12247?casa_token=yqEHlPqYPM4AAAAA%3AGXlw3tsDktNGDX2QVQ6gkdq-xfQzeQg8i7TU31eGrg1SrnY_CSbM01idwkjGZS2ZvUPOPL3HplSvzxk">services</a> – such as financial services, healthcare and tourism – to drive its domestic growth. This presents new opportunities for African goods and services providers too. </p>
<p>Things are already in the works. The official 2035 China-Africa Vision – which defines the overall framework of China-Africa cooperation – <a href="http://www.focac.org/eng/zywx_1/zywj/202201/t20220124_10632442.htm">includes</a> finance, tourism, media, and culture and sports. Some of these links, like the <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781498593977/Chinese-Media-in-Africa-Perception-Performance-and-Paradox">media industry</a>, are relatively advanced already. Some countries, for example <a href="http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/topic/enmauritius.shtml">Mauritius</a>, have already signed trade agreements which include <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/02/why-china-mauritius-trade-deal-matters/">financial services</a>. And, more recently, Kenya Airways and China Southern Airlines <a href="https://aviationmetric.com/kenya-airways-china-southern-expand-access-to-china-sign-interline-agreement-southern-airlines/">signed an agreement</a> to expand Nairobi’s role as a regional aviation hub for Chinese destinations.</p>
<p><strong>China’s pensioner boom</strong></p>
<p>The pensioner population is expected to peak mid-century when China is <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)02410-2/fulltext">forecast</a> to be home to some 400 million pensioners – a massive target market. Cambodia, for example, <a href="https://opendevelopmentcambodia.net/news/cambodia-looks-to-draw-more-elderly-tourists/">already has</a> an official strategy for attracting elderly tourists. </p>
<p>African countries could tap into this demographic, for instance to support tourism industries. East African countries are looking for <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/east-african-countries-plans-to-spur-tourism-post-covid-4147438">emerging tourist markets</a> and also looking to expand offerings to include activities such as cruises – these would be <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9731214/">ideal</a> for an older demographic.</p>
<h2>Risks</h2>
<p><strong>Slowdown in China’s economy</strong></p>
<p>A big risk is that as China’s population declines and ages it will cause China’s economic development engine to falter. </p>
<p>As it’s one of the world’s largest economies, a stagnation would <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/how-chinas-economic-slowdown-could-hurt-world?gad=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwu-KiBhCsARIsAPztUF3Eo_QrRrmbxYFEhyVFvM5Af4ySoKX2zmXFadrKvLEFaPN8IiLkcdgaAsEFEALw_wcB">cause ripples</a> across the world. It would slow China’s potential to trade with and invest in Africa. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="http://www.sais-cari.org/data-china-africa-trade">China is South Africa’s largest export market</a>. Nigeria, Angola, Egypt and the Democratic Republic of Congo are also major exporters of goods to China. Nigeria is the leading importer from China, followed by South Africa, Egypt and Ghana.</p>
<p>Some countries are relatively China-dependent for growth and development. These include <a href="https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/35414/chapter-abstract/303161337?redirectedFrom=fulltext">Zimbabwe</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214790X16300995">Guinea</a>. </p>
<p>China could become more risk-averse in lending to African countries, and conservative in foreign aid allocations. Leading Chinese companies might also have less revenue to re-invest in other markets, and less reason to do so given lower growth. This could challenge African government budgets and leave many in poverty and unable to find formal jobs in their working-age prime.</p>
<p><strong>Keeping production at home</strong></p>
<p>There is also <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/documents/publication/wcms_764445.pdf">the risk that automation will directly replace labour in China</a>, instead of shifting production to another country with a younger workforce. And foreign investors in China might seek to secure their own supply chains – at home – rather than shift production to a new labour-rich location after China.</p>
<p><strong>Regulatory challenges</strong></p>
<p>Africa could face new regulatory challenges as China’s population ages. Products demanded by an older Chinese population, with inputs sourced in Africa, may elevate existing regulatory challenges. </p>
<p>For instance, a Chinese traditional medicine known as <em>ejiao</em> uses collagen from donkey hides. It is believed to support sleep, blood vitality and those ageing in general. This has led to a trade in African donkeys that <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-demand-for-africas-donkeys-is-rising-why-its-time-to-control-the-trade-198597">has harmed</a> Africa’s own poor . </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-demand-for-africas-donkeys-is-rising-why-its-time-to-control-the-trade-198597">China's demand for Africa's donkeys is rising. Why it's time to control the trade</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>In my opinion a probable scenario is that China’s economy lumbers forward at a slower pace than in the past, but fast enough to stave off a crisis at home. </p>
<p>On the surface this may reduce the scale of opportunity for Africa. But, since China’s economy is many times larger than any economy in Africa, there’ll still be enough growth volume to tap for trade, investment and specific projects. Slower growth in China may even compel Chinese investors to turn to faster-growing African economies.</p>
<p>Africa is the world’s youngest continent, and fast-ageing population-declining China is the continent’s most important trade partner and economic partner. African governments must keep a close eye on what happens next to tap into all potential opportunities – and mitigate any risks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Johnston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s population decline and intensive ageing will offer opportunities and risks to African countries.Lauren Johnston, Senior Researcher, South African Institute of International Affairs and Associate Professor at the China Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1983212023-02-26T04:45:20Z2023-02-26T04:45:20ZNiger is Africa’s fastest growing country – how to feed 25 million more people in 30 years<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506424/original/file-20230125-20-c49exc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Most of Niger is infertile. Two-thirds of the country is located in the Sahara desert.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Issouf Sanogo/AFP/GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Niger, a landlocked country in the dry <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Sahel">Sahel region</a> of Africa, struggles to feed its <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=NE">25 million</a> people. It currently ranks 115th out of 121 countries on the <a href="https://www.globalhungerindex.org/methodology.html">Global Hunger Index</a>, and the number of people not getting enough to eat has increased from about 13% of the population in 2014 to <a href="https://www.globalhungerindex.org/niger.html#:%7E:text=In%20the%202022%20Global%20Hunger,of%20hunger%20that%20is%20serious">20% in 2022</a>.</p>
<p>Things could deteriorate even further as Niger confronts a “perfect storm”. The country has one of the <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/">highest population growth rates</a> in the world, with few signs of slowing down. Its <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Feb/un_2019_wpp_databooklet.pdf">fertility rate</a> – at an average of seven children per women – is the highest in the world.</p>
<p>Added to this, most of the country is infertile. Two-thirds of its area is located in the Sahara desert. Most of the country’s <a href="https://eros.usgs.gov/westafrica/land-cover/land-use-land-cover-and-trends-niger">agricultural land</a> lies in a narrow band close to the Nigerian border in the south and is being encroached on by the desert.</p>
<p>Niger’s population also has among the <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/HDI">lowest human capital indexes</a>, which among other things mean people cannot earn enough to afford to buy food. This challenge is even greater given the recent <a href="https://unowas.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/english_summary_report_0.pdf">shift in budgetary priorities</a> away from social development and towards national security due to growing instability in the Sahel region.</p>
<p>To make matters worse, Niger is one of the regions most <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf">vulnerable to climate change</a>. It has high exposure to heat and a low ability to adapt to changes in climate, like increasingly unpredictable rainfall. This will negatively affect crop yields in a country where <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS?locations=NE">less than 1%</a> of the cultivated land is irrigated. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506422/original/file-20230125-18-v2hepg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506422/original/file-20230125-18-v2hepg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506422/original/file-20230125-18-v2hepg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506422/original/file-20230125-18-v2hepg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506422/original/file-20230125-18-v2hepg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506422/original/file-20230125-18-v2hepg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506422/original/file-20230125-18-v2hepg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An aerial view of Diffa in Niger.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Janie Barrett/The Sydney Morning Herald/Fairfax Media via Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s projected that <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12571-022-01319-3">an additional two million Nigeriens</a> will be pushed into undernourishment by 2050 by the effects of climate change on crop yields and because agricultural workers (<a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=NE">around 75% of the total employed population</a>) will struggle to work in the heat. </p>
<p>So, how will Niger go from feeding 25 million people today to its projected population of 50 million people in 2050? </p>
<p>In a recently published <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12571-022-01319-3">study</a>, my colleagues and I wanted to figure out how to achieve this – or get as close as possible. </p>
<h2>Increasing food security</h2>
<p>We identified three interventions to address food availability: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>better food supply, with accelerated investments in agricultural research and development </p></li>
<li><p>less food demand through slower population growth </p></li>
<li><p>global market integration. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>But what should take priority to get the best outcome? </p>
<p>We created a model (which we called <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12571-022-01319-3">SIMPLE-Niger</a>) to figure this out. It used data from various sources, including household and farm surveys and satellite images.</p>
<p>Based on our model simulations, we argue that unless fertility rates fall, rapid population growth and climate change setbacks are likely to outpace possible advancements in agricultural productivity.</p>
<p>When it comes to the supply side – what’s put into agriculture – interventions and spending must focus on higher farm productivity such as climate smart research investments, and farmers’ access to and adoption of new technologies. </p>
<p>Greater integration into regional markets will also help to combat undernourishment. It will make food commodities more accessible and available through more trade and better <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263970147_Market_Integration_and_Spatial_Price_Transmission_in_Niger_Grain_Markets">regional price integration</a> (the effect of price in one market on another market).</p>
<p>Here’s how we got to these conclusions. </p>
<h2>Integration, investment and human capital</h2>
<p>As dire as the food security situation sounds, there are signs of improvement. We believe that further interventions in these areas are crucial to improve the situation. </p>
<p>Agricultural productivity has been <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12571-022-01319-3">increasing</a>, driven by:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="http://oar.icrisat.org/7351/">new crop varieties</a></p></li>
<li><p>local soil and water <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618308709">conservation technologies</a> like zai pits (small, shallow pits in the ground, which keep plant roots damper)</p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://fmnrhub.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Rinaudo-2007-Development-of-FMNR.pdf">farmer-managed natural regenerations</a> in which farmers use their indigenous knowledge to select and promote the natural regeneration of trees and shrubs.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The <a href="https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20190707/operational-phase-african-continental-free-trade-area-launched-niger-summit">African Continental Free Trade Agreement</a> is expected to lead to greater market integration and more trade in goods and services in the agri-food sector, from surplus to deficit regions. </p>
<p>Niger’s informal and formal non-tariff barriers are <a href="https://lpi.worldbank.org/international/aggregated-ranking">high</a>, however.</p>
<p>The country will need improvements in <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/37297">trade and transport-related infrastructure</a>, especially temperature-controlled logistics for agricultural products, ease of arranging competitively priced shipments, and efficiency in customs procedure. While designing interventions, it is also important to remember that a large share of the trade happens through <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/incentives-and-constraints-of-informal-trade-between-nigeria-and-its-neighbours_7aa64379-en">informal cross-border trade</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510841/original/file-20230217-349-fwtd60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510841/original/file-20230217-349-fwtd60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510841/original/file-20230217-349-fwtd60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510841/original/file-20230217-349-fwtd60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510841/original/file-20230217-349-fwtd60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510841/original/file-20230217-349-fwtd60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510841/original/file-20230217-349-fwtd60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fulani herdsman.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy Kayenat Kabir</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There must also be additional investments in local agricultural research and dissemination, and to transform this into <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/45045/35520_err145.pdf?v=0">agricultural productivity growth</a>. The adoption rate for new technology and varieties is low among Nigerien farmers, even by Sahelian standards. Improved support for local researchers, enhanced extension services, private sector partnerships for technology dissemination, and input market access can boost adoption of <a href="https://ispc.cgiar.org/crop-improvement-adoption-and-impact">new technologies</a> by farmers, which will accelerate recent productivity growth. </p>
<h2>Likely setbacks</h2>
<p>Agricultural productivity growth will likely be outpaced, however, by population growth and climate change setbacks. This means the population growth rate must fall. </p>
<p>Funds must be allocated towards family planning and health. But fertility is a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41229000#metadata_info_tab_contents">deeply political and challenging issue</a>, which makes allocation of funds for these purposes difficult.</p>
<p>In fact, the <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/publications/publication-FR277-DHS-Final-Reports.cfm">desired family rate</a> is higher than the current family rate, meaning men and women want more children than they currently have. It’s important to consider the socioeconomic context in designing family planning programmes in Niger. </p>
<p>A big win would be to increase investments in <a href="https://www.unicef.org/niger/stories/girls-education-strengthens-economies-and-reduces-inequality-niger">women’s education</a> and labour force participation. It’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277953614003736">widely known</a> that this would empower women to make birthing decisions freely and responsibly. Keeping girls in school also reduces the chance of child marriage, which is both a cause and consequence of pregnancy in adolescence. Investing in education is also <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781315870571/end-world-population-growth-21st-century-wolfgang-lutz-sergei-scherbov-warren-sanderson">linked</a> to better food and nutrition security.</p>
<h2>Worth the investment</h2>
<p>These steps could get sidelined in a region that is witnessing <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/07/niger-clings-to-stability-in-west-africa/">growing instability</a>. But history tells us that a young and growing population facing food insecurity and unemployment can be a breeding ground for more <a href="https://theconversation.com/niger-has-the-worlds-highest-birth-rate-and-that-may-be-a-recipe-for-unrest-108654">instability</a>. </p>
<p>Ensuring food security for Niger’s rapidly growing young population is just as important for its national security.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198321/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kayenat Kabir is a Research and Teaching Associate at the Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, U.S.A. She consults with the World Bank HQ and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization HQ. The views in this article are solely the author's. </span></em></p>Better food supply, a reduction in population growth rate, and greater integration into global markets are three key steps Niger must take.Kayenat Kabir, Research and Teaching Associate, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1909072022-11-15T05:39:24Z2022-11-15T05:39:24ZYou are now one of 8 billion humans alive today. Let’s talk overpopulation – and why low income countries aren’t the issue<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495242/original/file-20221115-26-vovka5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C35%2C5946%2C3332&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Today is the Day of Eight Billion, according to the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/dayof8billion#:%7E:text=Day%20of%20Eight%20Billion&text=On%2015%20November%202022%2C%20the,a%20milestone%20in%20human%20development">United Nations</a>.</p>
<p>That’s an incredible number of humans, considering our population was around 2.5 billion in 1950. Watching our numbers <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/">tick over</a> milestones can <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-should-be-wary-of-blaming-overpopulation-for-the-climate-crisis-130709">provoke anxiety</a>. Do we have enough food? What does this mean for nature? Are more humans a catastrophe for climate change? </p>
<p>The answers are counterintuitive. Because rich countries use vastly more <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0579-8">resources and energy</a>, greening and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320722002518">reducing consumption</a> in these countries is more effective and equitable than calling for population control in low income nations. Fertility rates in most of the world have fallen sharply. As countries get richer, they tend to have fewer children. </p>
<p>We can choose to adequately and equitably feed a population of <a href="https://research.wri.org/wrr-food">10 billion by 2050</a> – even as we reduce or eliminate global greenhouse gas emissions and staunch biodiversity loss.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495289/original/file-20221115-12-yqy903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495289/original/file-20221115-12-yqy903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495289/original/file-20221115-12-yqy903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495289/original/file-20221115-12-yqy903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495289/original/file-20221115-12-yqy903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495289/original/file-20221115-12-yqy903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495289/original/file-20221115-12-yqy903.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For most high income countries, population growth has fallen below the replacement rate of 2.1 children.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Unsplash.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why is the world’s population still growing?</h2>
<p>We hit 7 billion people just 11 years ago, in October 2011, and 6 billion in October 1999. And we’re still growing – the UN predicts 9.7 billion humans by 2050 before potentially topping out at 10.3 billion at the end of the century. But <a href="https://vizhub.healthdata.org/population-forecast/">modelling</a> by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts the population peak much earlier, in 2064, and falling below 9 billion by century’s end. </p>
<p>Why is it still growing? Momentum. The number of women entering child-bearing age is growing, even as the average number of children each woman is having falls. Plus, we are generally living longer. </p>
<p>In 1950, the world’s population was growing at almost 2% a year. That growth rate is now less than 1%, and <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/population">predicted to keep falling</a>. There’s little we can do to change population trends. Researchers have found even if we introduced harsh one-child policies worldwide, our population trajectories <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1410465111">would not change</a> markedly. </p>
<p>In many ways, the story of population growth is evidence of improvement. Better farming techniques and better medicine made the population boom possible. And slowing population growth has come from falling rates of poverty, as well as better health and education systems, especially for women. </p>
<p>Increased gender equality and women’s empowerment have also helped. Put simply, if women can choose their own paths, they still have children – just fewer of them. That’s why climate solutions group Project Drawdown ranks female education and family planning as <a href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-02-24/educating-girls-is-more-effective-in-the-climate-emergency-than-many-green-technologies/">one of the top ways</a> to tackle climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492921/original/file-20221102-26714-8nk68c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart of world population in numbers and growth rate" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492921/original/file-20221102-26714-8nk68c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492921/original/file-20221102-26714-8nk68c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492921/original/file-20221102-26714-8nk68c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492921/original/file-20221102-26714-8nk68c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492921/original/file-20221102-26714-8nk68c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492921/original/file-20221102-26714-8nk68c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492921/original/file-20221102-26714-8nk68c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trends in world population (top) and rate of population growth (bottom)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Macrotrends.net</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Should we worry about overpopulation at all?</h2>
<p>You are now one of 8,000,000,000 humans alive today. How should we feel about this?</p>
<p>The modern fear of overpopulation has old roots. In 1798, Reverend Thomas Malthus warned population grows exponentially while food supply does not. Close to two centuries later, Paul and Anne Erlich’s 1968 book The Population Bomb triggered a new wave of concern. As our numbers skyrocketed, they argued, we would inevitably hit a Malthusian cliff and run out of food. Famine and war would follow. It didn’t happen. </p>
<p>What resulted was inhumane population control policies. The book – replete with racially charged passages about a crowded Delhi “slum” – <a href="https://pulitzercenter.org/projects/india-grappling-legacy-population-bomb">directly influenced</a> India’s 1970s forced sterilisation policies. China’s notorious one-child policy emerged from similar concerns. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/overpopulation-and-the-environment-three-ideas-on-how-to-discuss-it-in-a-sensitive-way-98361">'Overpopulation' and the environment: three ideas on how to discuss it in a sensitive way</a>
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<p>Low- or middle-income countries are most often called on to tackle overpopulation. And the people calling for action tend to be from high-income, high-consumption countries. Even David Attenborough <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/10/david-attenborough-warns-planet-cant-cope-with-overpopulation/">is concerned</a>. </p>
<p>Recent calls by Western conservation researchers <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320722001999?casa_token=OcLNMonV7L0AAAAA:LXiqCy58-IRs3ve_FyVRNIvNV7M243kkWlThLMAwuf6DxttW7LSHsy5MTrX5prYmExpPoT7dzQ">to tackle</a> environmental degradation by slowing population growth repeat the same issue, focusing on the parts of the world where populations are still growing strongly – sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and some Asian countries. </p>
<p>People from lower income countries reject these calls. Pakistani academic Adil Najam <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40230082">has observed</a> these countries are “weary of international population policy in the name of the environment.” </p>
<p>Overall, the world’s wealthiest 1% <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0579-8">account for 15%</a> of the world’s carbon emissions. That’s more than double the emissions of the poorest 50% of the planet – who are the most vulnerable to climate change. </p>
<p>Prince William, for instance, <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-william-blames-african-population-growth-for-wildlife-loss-d7rtjlp3d">has linked</a> African population growth to wildlife loss – even though he has three children and comes from a family with a carbon footprint <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/09/10/from-plastics-to-planes-how-has-the-planet-changed-in-queen-elizabeth-iis-70-years-on-the-#:%7E:text=According%20to%20their%20research%2C%20the,just%2010%20tonnes%20per%20year">almost 1,600 times</a> higher than the average Nigerian family. </p>
<p>What about saving wildlife? Again, a mirror may be useful here. It turns out demand from rich countries is the single largest driver of biodiversity loss globally. How? Your beef burger may have been made possible by burning the Amazon for pasture for cows, as well as many other <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11145">global supply chain issues</a>. Rich countries like Australia are also <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/csp2.117">notoriously bad</a> at protecting their own wildlife from agriculture and land clearing. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495257/original/file-20221115-20-pt3tsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="clearing for palm oil" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495257/original/file-20221115-20-pt3tsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495257/original/file-20221115-20-pt3tsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495257/original/file-20221115-20-pt3tsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495257/original/file-20221115-20-pt3tsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495257/original/file-20221115-20-pt3tsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495257/original/file-20221115-20-pt3tsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495257/original/file-20221115-20-pt3tsq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Destroying rainforest is bad - but what if it’s being destroyed to make beef or palm oil for richer countries, as in this photo of clearing for oil palms in South-East Asia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is not to say population growth in lower income countries isn’t worth discussing. While many countries have seen their populations taper off naturally as they get wealthier, countries like Nigeria are showing <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-large-youthful-population-could-be-an-asset-or-a-burden-186574">signs of strain</a> from very fast population growth. Many young Nigerians move to cities seeking opportunities, but infrastructure and job creation has not kept pace. </p>
<p>For Western environmentalists and policymakers, however, it would be better to shift away from a blame mentality and tackle <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025949">drivers of inequality</a> between and within nations. These <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/inequality/">include</a> support for family planning, removing barriers to girls’ education, better regulation of global financial markets, reduced transaction costs for global remittances, and safe migration for people seeking work or refuge in higher income countries.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491217/original/file-20221023-24525-aow3uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491217/original/file-20221023-24525-aow3uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491217/original/file-20221023-24525-aow3uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491217/original/file-20221023-24525-aow3uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491217/original/file-20221023-24525-aow3uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491217/original/file-20221023-24525-aow3uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491217/original/file-20221023-24525-aow3uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491217/original/file-20221023-24525-aow3uz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">This graph shows what fair use of the world’s resources would look like (green line) and what proportion is actually used by high and low income countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://goodlife.leeds.ac.uk/related-research/ecological-breakdown/">Goodlife.leeds.ac.uk</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As we pass the eight billion mark, let’s reconsider our reaction. Blaming low-consumption, high-population growth countries for environmental issues ignores our role. Worse, it takes our attention away from the real work ahead of transforming society and reducing our collective impact on the planet. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-should-be-wary-of-blaming-overpopulation-for-the-climate-crisis-130709">Why we should be wary of blaming 'overpopulation' for the climate crisis</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190907/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Selinske receives funding from the Australian Research Council and is a board member of the Society for Conservation Biology's Social Science Working Group.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leejiah Dorward is a researcher at Bangor University and receives funding from the European Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Barnes has received funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council . He is affiliated with The Zoological Society of London. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Brittain is a researcher at the University of Oxford. She receives funding from the German government's international Climate Initiative and is a board member of the Society for Conservation Biology's Social Science Working Group.</span></em></p>For many environmentalists, overpopulation is a real concern. But the planet will benefit more from tackling overconsumption by rich countries.Matthew Selinske, Senior research fellow, RMIT UniversityLeejiah Dorward, Postdoctoral research associate, Bangor UniversityPaul Barnes, Visiting researcher, UCLStephanie Brittain, Conservation scientist, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1940672022-11-14T13:07:18Z2022-11-14T13:07:18ZAs the 8 billionth person is born, here’s how Africa will shape the future of the planet’s population<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494071/original/file-20221108-26-rjbg6o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In mid-November 2022 the eight billionth person will be born, <a href="https://www.un.org/en/dayof8billion#:%7E:text=On%2015%20November%202022%2C%20the,nutrition%2C%20personal%20hygiene%20and%20medicine">according to the United Nations</a>. In its analysis of this milestone, the UN makes two key observations. The first is that the global population has been expanding at its slowest rate since 1950. The growth rate dropped below 1% in 2020, a trend that is likely to continue. The second is that the growth in population has been due to the gradual increase in human lifespan owing to improvements in public health, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine. It’s also the result of high and persistent levels of fertility in some countries. According to the UN, just eight countries are <a href="https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022">expected</a> to be behind 50% of the population growth over the next 30 years. Five are in Africa: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania. Demographers Akanni Akinyemi, Jacques Emina and Esther Dungumaro unpack these dynamics.</em></p>
<h2>What’s the significance of the eight billionth birth?</h2>
<p>It raises concerns – <a href="https://worldpopulationhistory.org/carrying-capacity/">scientists estimate</a> that Earth’s maximum carrying capacity is between nine billion and 10 billion people. </p>
<p>Appreciating these numbers requires an understanding of the distribution and demographic structure of the population. Where are these people across regions, countries, and rural and urban geographies?</p>
<p>There is a potential upside to growing populations. It’s known as a <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/demographic-dividend#0">demographic dividend</a>. Population growth can be a blessing, spurring economic growth from shifts in a population’s age structure. This is a prospect if working-age people have good health, quality education, decent employment and a lower proportion of young dependants. </p>
<p>But realising this dividend depends on a host of things. They include the structure of the population by age, level of education and skills, and living conditions, as well as the distribution of available resources. </p>
<p>The consequences of population growth are socioeconomic, political and environmental. Some of them can be negative. How these unfold is determined by the characteristics of the population and its distribution. </p>
<h2>Why are birth rates so high in five African countries?</h2>
<p>The major factors driving population growth in these countries include low contraceptive use, high adolescent fertility rates and a prevalence of polygamous marriages. There’s also the low education status of women, low to poor investment in children’s education, and factors related to religion and ideas. </p>
<p>The use of modern contraceptives is <a href="https://reproductive-health-journal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12978-022-01332-x#:%7E:text=The%20use%20of%20modern%20contraceptives,%2DSaharan%20Africa%20(SSA);%20%20un_2019_contraceptiveusebymethod_databooklet.pdf">generally low</a> across sub-Saharan Africa. The overall prevalence is 22%. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, however, the uptake of short-acting contraceptives is at 8.1%. In Nigeria, it is at 10.5%. The uptake in Ethiopia is 25%, in Tanzania it’s 27.1% and in Egypt 43%.</p>
<p>For long-acting family planning methods, apart from Egypt with over 20% uptake, the other four countries driving population growth in the region recorded very poor uptake. This low uptake will logically lead to a population explosion. </p>
<p>Some of the factors <a href="https://contraceptionmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40834-021-00165-6">associated</a> with high contraceptive use in Africa are women’s education, exposure to news and mass media, good economic status and urban residency.</p>
<p>The adolescent fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa – while showing a downward trend – is still relatively high. The adolescent fertility rate captures the number of births per 1,000 girls aged 15 to 19. In sub-Saharan Africa, it stands at an average of <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.ADO.TFRT?locations=ZG">98 births per 1,000 girls</a>.</p>
<p>There is a <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.ADO.TFRT?locations=ZG">wide variation</a> in this rate across the five countries: from 52 in Egypt and 62 in Ethiopia to 102 in Nigeria, 114 in Tanzania and 119 in the DRC. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1228319/adolescent-fertility-rate-worldwide/">Outside the continent</a>, the adolescent fertility rate is 21 in Asia and the Pacific, and 26 in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In the US, it’s at 15, five in France and 42 globally. </p>
<p>The adolescent fertility rate has huge implications for population growth because of the number of years between the start of childbearing and the end of a woman’s reproductive age. A high fertility rate in this age group also has a negative influence on the health, economic and educational potential of women and their children. </p>
<p>Another factor driving population growth in these five African countries is polygamous marriage. Women in polygamous unions living in rural areas with low socio-economic status are likely to have higher fertility rates than women in other areas. </p>
<p>Polygamy is <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2022/04/05/polygamy-in-drc-illegal-but-not-uncommon//">illegal in the DRC</a>. Nevertheless, it’s common. About 36% of married women in <a href="https://www.prb.org/resources/polygamy-in-west-africa-impacts-on-fertility-fertility-intentions-and-family-planning/">Nigeria</a>, one-quarter of married women in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/tanzania-marriage-idINKCN0SL0CP20151027">rural Tanzania</a> and 11% of those in <a href="https://bmcpsychology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40359-022-00753-4#:%7E:text=Regarding%20Ethiopia%2C%20polygamy%20is%20practiced,co%2Dwives%20%5B10%5D">Ethiopia</a> are in polygamous marriages.</p>
<p>Finally, a woman’s education status has a significant impact on fertility. For instance, in Tanzania, women with no formal education have as many as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/tanzania-marriage-idINKCN0SL0CP20151027">3.3 more children</a> than women with secondary or tertiary education. </p>
<h2>Are rising populations a cause for major concern in these countries?</h2>
<p>Yes. </p>
<p>One of the biggest concerns is the scale of these countries’ development.</p>
<p>The World Bank classifies the DRC among the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/drc/overview">five poorest nations in the world</a>, with nearly 64% of the population living on less than US$2.15 a day. One in six of sub-Saharan Africa’s poorest people is found in the DRC. </p>
<p>In Nigeria, about <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/overview">40% of the population</a> lives below the poverty line. The west African nation also faces issues of insecurity, poor infrastructure and high unemployment.</p>
<p>Steady population growth in these five countries will exert further stress on already inadequate infrastructure and services.</p>
<p>Also, the age structure of the populations of these five countries reflects high levels of dependency. The population of young people who aren’t in the labour force and that of older people is far higher than of those in their prime ages (18 to 64) who are gainfully employed. </p>
<p>There is also a potential shortage of working-age people with high skills compared with the population of those who depend on them for survival in these five countries. </p>
<p>This is because these countries have a <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1121264/median-age-in-africa-by-county/">very youthful population</a>. The median age ranges from 17 in the DRC to 17.7 in Tanzania and 18.8 in Nigeria. There is also the prospect of many young people living in unfavourable socioeconomic realities and poverty.</p>
<h2>In most countries, population growth is the slowest since 1950. Why?</h2>
<p>Most countries, particularly in America, Asia, Europe, Oceania and North Africa, have completed the fertility transition. In other words, they are experiencing below-replacement fertility levels – fewer than two children are being born per woman. </p>
<p>The main drivers of low fertility include the increased use of modern contraceptives, increased age at first marriage and higher numbers of educated women.</p>
<h2>What should the next steps be for African countries with high fertility rates?</h2>
<p>Government policies and programmes need to take into account population growth and align interventions with sustainable use and access to resources. </p>
<p>Governments at regional, national and sub-national levels also need to invest in infrastructure and education. They need to create employment if they are to benefit from a growing population. There is also need to continue investing in family planning. </p>
<p>The age structure of the population is also of concern. The expected growth in population numbers is <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/8billion/8trends">likely to increase</a> the concentration of young people and those of prime ages. With limited socio-economic opportunities for young people, countries are more likely to be subject to the forces of international migration. </p>
<p>The proportion of older people is also likely to increase in the five countries in focus. This increases the need for investment in social security, infrastructure and innovative support for older people. Unfortunately, issues around older people have not gained prominence on the continent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacques Emina
Population and Health Research Institute
and with
School of Population and Development Studies, University of Kinshasa</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Akanni Ibukun Akinyemi and Esther William Dungumaro do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Eight countries are projected to be behind 50% of the growth in population over the next three decades. Five are in Africa.Akanni Ibukun Akinyemi, Professor of Demography and Social Statistics., Obafemi Awolowo UniversityEsther William Dungumaro, Associate Professor of Demography, University of Dar es SalaamJacques Emina, Professor of population and development studies, University of Kinshasa Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930772022-11-10T13:41:45Z2022-11-10T13:41:45Z8 billion people: Four ways climate change and population growth combine to threaten public health, with global consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494155/original/file-20221108-12-bg01z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=522%2C226%2C3071%2C2166&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Infectious diseases like COVID-19 top the list of health concerns.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-elderly-man-a-resident-of-the-sprawling-township-of-news-photo/1211082728">Marco Longari/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ocho-mil-millones-de-personas-asi-amenazan-a-la-salud-publica-el-cambio-climatico-y-la-superpoblacion-194421">Leer in español</a></em></p>
<p>There are questions that worry me profoundly as a population- and environmental-health scientist. </p>
<p>Will we have enough food for a growing global population? How will we take care of more people in the next pandemic? What will heat do to millions with hypertension? Will countries wage water wars because of increasing droughts? </p>
<p>These risks all have three things in common: health, climate change and a growing population that the United Nations determined <a href="https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022">passed 8 billion</a> people in November 2022 – double the population of just 48 years ago.</p>
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<p>In my <a href="https://www.health.pitt.edu/people/ant-2">40-year career</a>, first working in the Amazon rainforest and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and then in academia, I have encountered many public health threats, but none so intransigent and pervasive as climate change. </p>
<p>Of the multitude of climate-related adverse health effects, the following four represent the greatest public health concerns for a growing population.</p>
<h2>Infectious diseases</h2>
<p>Researchers have found that <a href="https://theconversation.com/58-of-human-infectious-diseases-can-be-worsened-by-climate-change-we-scoured-77-000-studies-to-map-the-pathways-188256">over half of all human infectious diseases</a> can be worsened by climate change.</p>
<p>Flooding, for example, can affect water quality and the habitats where dangerous bacteria and vectors like mosquitoes can breed and transmit infectious diseases to people.</p>
<p>Dengue, a painful mosquito-borne viral disease that sickens <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/about/index.html">about 100 million</a> people a year, becomes more common in warm, wet environments. Its R0, or basic reproduction number – a gauge of how quickly it spreads – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9">increased by about 12%</a> from the 1950s to the average in 2012-2021, according to the 2022 Lancet Countdown report. Malaria’s season expanded by 31% in highland areas of Latin America and nearly 14% in Africa’s highlands as temperatures rose over the same period.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Rows of beds, some covered with mosquito nets, fill a warehouse-like space. Doctors visit with some of the patients." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493916/original/file-20221107-19-5r15ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Patients rest in a makeshift dengue ward at a hospital during a severe outbreak in Pakistan in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/patients-take-rest-on-beds-arranged-inside-a-makeshift-news-photo/1235932771">Arif Ali/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Flooding can also spread waterborne organisms that cause <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-020-04961-4">hepatitis</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.39503.700903.DB">diarrheal diseases</a>, such as cholera, particularly when large numbers of people are displaced by disasters and living in areas with poor water quality for drinking or washing. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.7a2cee9e980f91ad7697b570bcc4b004">Droughts</a>, too, can degrade drinking water quality. As a result, more rodent populations enter into human communities in search of food, increasing the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11010015">potential to spread hantavirus</a>.</p>
<h2>Extreme heat</h2>
<p>Another serious health risk is rising temperatures. </p>
<p>Excessive heat can <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-heat-and-health">exacerbate existing health problems</a>, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/all.14177">cardiovascular</a> and respiratory diseases. And when heat stress becomes <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/heatstress/heatrelillness.html">heat stroke</a>, it can <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/heat-stroke/symptoms-causes/syc-20353581">damage the heart, brain and kidneys</a> and become lethal.</p>
<p>Today, about 30% of the global population is exposed to potentially deadly heat stress each year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that percentage will rise <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/about/frequently-asked-questions/keyfaq3/">to at least 48% and as high as 76%</a> by the end of this century.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493119/original/file-20221102-24-un18ln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where climate change affects human health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition to lives lost, heat exposure was projected to have resulted in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/infographics-do/climate-countdown-2022">470 billion potential work hours lost</a> globally in 2021, with associated income losses totaling up to US$669 billion. As populations grow and heat rises, more people will be relying on air conditioning powered by fossil fuels, which <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/air-conditioning-use-emerges-as-one-of-the-key-drivers-of-global-electricity-demand-growth">further contributes to climate change</a>.</p>
<h2>Food and water security</h2>
<p>Heat also affects food and water security for a growing population.</p>
<p>The Lancet review found that high temperatures in 2021 <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01540-9/fulltext">shortened the growing season</a> by about 9.3 days on average for corn, or maize, and six days for wheat compared with the 1981-2020 average. Warming oceans, meanwhile, can kill shellfish and shift <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14512">fisheries that coastal communities rely on</a>. Heat waves in 2020 alone resulted in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01540-9/fulltext">98 million more</a> people facing food insecurity compared with the 1981-2010 average.</p>
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<img alt="A woman standing in a field examines a stalk of sorghum" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493915/original/file-20221107-21-i2g9p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A farmer in Zimbabwe switched to sorghum, a grain crop that can thrive in dry conditions, as drought withered other crops in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/angeline-kadiki-an-elderly-who-is-a-sorghum-farmer-inspects-news-photo/1130994283">Jekesai Njikizana/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rising temperatures also affect fresh water supplies through evaporation and by shrinking <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/andes-meltdown-new-insights-into-rapidly-retreating-glaciers">mountain glaciers</a> and <a href="https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/project/climate-change-sierra-nevada/">snowpack</a> that historically have kept water flowing through the summer months.</p>
<p>Water scarcity and drought have the potential to displace almost <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2022/goal-13/">700 million people by 2030</a>, according to U.N. estimates. Combined with population growth and growing energy needs, they can also fuel geopolitical conflicts as countries face food shortages and compete for water.</p>
<h2>Poor air quality</h2>
<p>Air pollution can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-air-pollution-can-be-deadly-with-the-health-risk-together-worse-than-either-alone-187422">exacerbated by the drivers of climate change</a>. Hot weather and the same fossil fuel gases warming the planet <a href="https://www.lung.org/clean-air/climate-change/climate-change-air-pollution">contribute to ground-level ozone</a>, a key component of smog. That can exacerbate allergies, asthma and other respiratory problems, as well as cardiovascular disease. </p>
<p>Wildfires fueled by hot, dry landscapes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abi9386">add to the air pollution health risk</a>. Wildfire smoke is laden with tiny particles that can travel deep into the lungs, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/wildfire-smoke-course/why-wildfire-smoke-health-concern">causing heart and respiratory problems</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three school girls with backpacks walk through smog along a road while covering their mouths with handkerchiefs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493917/original/file-20221107-25-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smog in New Delhi, India, is an ongoing problem. It got so bad in 2017 that the city temporarily closed its primary schools.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/indian-schoolchildren-cover-their-faces-as-they-walk-to-news-photo/871511920">Sajjad Hussain/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can we do about it?</h2>
<p>Many groups and medical experts are working to counter this cascade of negative climate consequences on human health.</p>
<p>The U.S. National Academy of Medicine has embarked on an ambitious <a href="https://nam.edu/programs/climate-change-and-human-health/">grand challenge in climate change, human health, and equity</a> to ramp up research. At many academic institutions, including the University of Pittsburgh’s School of Public Health, where I am dean, climate and health are being embedded in research, teaching and service.</p>
<p>Addressing the health burden on low- and middle-income countries is pivotal. Often, the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK525226/">most vulnerable</a> people in these countries <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal13">face the greatest harms from climate change</a> without having the resources to protect their health and environment. Population growth can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10384">deepen these iniquities</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.paho.org/en/news/19-8-2022-eu-and-paho-supporting-nine-caribbean-countries-integration-health-national">Adaptation assessments</a> can help high-risk countries prepare for the effects of climate change. Development groups are also leading projects to <a href="https://www.cgiar.org/">expand the cultivation of crops</a> that can thrive in dry conditions. The <a href="https://www.paho.org/en">Pan American Health Organization</a>, which focuses on the Caribbean, is an example of how countries are working to reduce communicable diseases and advance regional capacity to counter the impact of climate change.</p>
<p>Ultimately, reducing the health risks will require <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">reducing the greenhouse gas emissions</a> that are driving climate change. </p>
<p>Countries worldwide <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-convention/history-of-the-convention#Essential-background">committed in 1992</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Thirty years later, global emissions are <a href="https://www.unep.org/events/publication-launch/emissions-gap-report-2022">only beginning to flatten</a>, and communities around the world are increasingly suffering extreme heat waves and devastating floods and droughts.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/cop-27">U.N. climate change talks</a>, which in my view aren’t focusing enough on health, can help bring attention to key climate impacts that harm health. As U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres noted: While we celebrate our advances, “at the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.”</p>
<p><em>Samantha Totoni, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193077/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maureen Lichtveld does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The human population has doubled in 48 years, and worsening climate change has left the world facing serious health risks, from infectious diseases to hunger and heat stress.Maureen Lichtveld, Dean of the School of Public Health, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930752022-11-03T12:00:21Z2022-11-03T12:00:21Z8 billion humans: How population growth and climate change are connected as the ‘Anthropocene engine’ transforms the planet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492902/original/file-20221102-12-nv3d4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C31%2C5189%2C3410&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Population growth fuels knowledge, leading to new technology and energy use, fueling more population growth. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/commuters-rushing-onto-train-at-umeda-subway-royalty-free-image/521711666">Robert Essel/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At first glance, the connections between the world’s growing population and climate change seem obvious. The more people we have on this planet, the larger their collective impact on the climate.</p>
<p>However, a closer look with a longer time horizon reveals relationships between population size and climate change that can help us better understand both humanity’s predicament as the <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1130417">global population hits 8 billion people</a> – a milestone the <a href="https://ph.news.yahoo.com/baby-girl-born-manila-symbolizes-070929612.html">United Nations marked</a> on Nov. 15, 2022.</p>
<h2>Looking back to the Stone Age</h2>
<p>For much of human evolution, our ancestors were exposed to large climatic fluctuations between ice ages and intermittent warmer periods. The last of these ice ages <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age">ended about 10,000 years ago</a>. </p>
<p>Before the ice sheets melted, sea levels were <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/coastline-eastern-us-changesslowly">about 400 feet (120 meters) lower than today</a>. That allowed humans to migrate around the world. Everywhere they went, our ancestors reshaped landscapes, first by clearing forests and then through early agricultural practices that emerged in a number of regions starting just as the last ice age ended.</p>
<p>Paleoclimatologist <a href="https://evsc.as.virginia.edu/people/profile/wfr5c">William Ruddiman</a> has suggested that these early actions – cutting down trees and expanding farming – caused a small initial rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. That <a href="https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/24/02/2021/ruddiman-hypothesis-debated-theory-progresses-along-interdisciplinary-lines">contributed to a stable climate</a> over the past 10,000 years by counteracting trends of declining carbon dioxide levels that might have triggered another glaciation event. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Painting from an Egyptian tomb showing a person holding a scythe and cutting wheat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492904/original/file-20221102-28600-bw9n55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=657&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Agriculture began fueling the Anthropocene engine. A painting in the tomb of Sennedjem from Egypt’s 19th dynasty, between 1295 B.C. and 1186 B.C., shows a person reaping wheat in Thebes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/detail-of-a-painting-on-stucco-in-the-tomb-of-sennedjem-news-photo/152198532">Werner Forman/Universal Images Group/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By reshaping landscapes, our ancestors actively constructed the niches they inhabited. This process is an important aspect of evolutionary change, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jez.b.22631">creating important feedback dynamics</a> between evolving species and their environment.</p>
<p>As humans evolved, the demands of the growing population, associated knowledge creation and energy use created a <a href="https://technosphere-magazine.hkw.de/p/The-Growth-and-Differentiation-of-Metabolism-Extended-Evolutionary-Dynamics-in-the-Technosphere-hTBDuetUoDLXpZLjWAq4aX">feedback cycle</a> my colleagues and I call the Anthropocene engine. That engine has transformed the planet.</p>
<h2>Revving up the Anthropocene engine</h2>
<p>The Anthropocene engine has been running for at least 8,000 years. It led to the rise of modern civilizations and ultimately to the environmental challenges we face today, including climate change.</p>
<p>How does the Anthropocene engine work?</p>
<p>First, populations had to reach a critical number of people to successfully create enough knowledge about their environments that they could begin to actively and purposefully transform the niches they lived in.</p>
<p>Successful agriculture was the product of such knowledge. In turn, agriculture increased the amount of energy available to these early societies.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A carved scene shows a shop with bowls on the wall, a man pounding an item with a large hammer, another person writing, a dog and a child." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492907/original/file-20221102-26775-6l91zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More knowledge and energy led to division of labor and more innovation. This marble relief depicts a coppersmith’s shop in Pompei during the first century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/roman-civilization-1st-century-a-d-pompei-marble-relief-news-photo/122222124">DEA/L. Pedicini/De Agostini via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More energy supports more people. More people led to early settlements and, later, to cities. This allowed for task specialization and division of labor, which, in turn, accelerated the creation of more knowledge, which increased available energy and allowed population size to grow as well. And so on, and so on. </p>
<p>While the details of this process differ around the world, they are all driven by the same Anthropocene engine.</p>
<h2>The problem of exponential growth</h2>
<p>As an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=N5P-cI4AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">evolutionary biologist and historian of science</a>, I have studied the evolution of knowledge and complexity for over three decades and have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2112.05876">developing mathematical models</a> with colleagues <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0058407">to help explain these</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.276.5309.122">processes</a>. Using the universality of the underlying processes driving the Anthropocene engine, we can capture these dynamics in the form of a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6QLenwsOEs&t=383s">growth equation</a>, which includes links between population growth and increasing energy use.</p>
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>One consequence of positive feedback cycles in dynamical systems is that they lead to exponential growth.</p>
<p>Exponential growth can start very slowly and be barely noticeable for quite some time. But eventually it will have dramatic consequences wherever resources are limited.</p>
<p>Driven by the Anthropocene engine, human population has grown exponentially, and individual societies have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114845109">approached collapse</a> multiple times over the past 8,000 years. The disappearance of the Easter Island civilization and the <a href="https://hmsc.harvard.edu/file/1053329">collapse of the Mayan empire</a>, for example, have been linked to the depletion of environmental resources as populations rose. The dramatic decline of the European population during the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04800-3">Black Death in the 1300s</a> was a direct consequence of crowded and unsanitary living conditions that facilitated the spread of <em>Yersenia pestis</em>, or plague.</p>
<p>Biologist Paul Ehrlich warned about unchecked growth in his 1968 book “<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-long-fuse-the-population-bomb-is-still-ticking-50-years-after-its-publication-96090">The Population Bomb</a>,” predicting growing global demand for limited resources would lead to societal collapse without changes in human consumption.</p>
<p>But globally, humanity has always found a way to avoid doom. Knowledge-based innovations, such as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution">Green Revolution</a> – the broad-scale effects of which Ehrlich did not foresee – have enabled people to reset the clock, leading to more cycles of innovation and (almost) collapse. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration of a row of giant furnaces with steam coming out, rail cars carrying coal and a stream engine, with workers scurrying about." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492905/original/file-20221102-20-msahko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fossil fuels and the Industrial Revolution changed the face of Britain and the Western world in the span of a few decades starting in the late 1700s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-industrial-revolution-age-of-steel-blast-furnaces-by-news-photo/1053836066">Hulton Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One example is the sequence of energy regimes. It started with wood and animal power. Then came coal, oil and gas.</p>
<p>Fossil fuels powered the Industrial Revolution, and with it, greater wealth and advances in health care. But the age of fossil fuels has had dramatic consequences. It almost doubled the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in less than 300 years, causing the unprecedented speed of global warming that humanity is experiencing today. </p>
<p>At the same time, inequality has become endemic. Poorer nations that contributed little to climate change are suffering the most from global warming, while just 20 wealthier countries are <a href="https://www.oecd.org/tax/g20-economies-are-pricing-more-carbon-emissions-but-stronger-globally-more-coherent-policy-action-is-needed-to-meet-climate-goals-says-oecd.htm">responsible for about 80%</a> of emissions.</p>
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/climate-change?time=-400000..latest&facet=none&hideControls=true&Metric=CO%E2%82%82+concentrations&Long-run+series%3F=true&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The next energy transition to avoid collapse is underway now with the rise of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power. But <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">studies</a> – including a report released ahead of the <a href="https://cop27.eg/#/">2022 U.N. Climate Change Conference</a> in November – <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">show</a> humans aren’t evolving their energy use fast enough to keep climate change in check.</p>
<h2>Using knowledge to reset the cycle again</h2>
<p>Every species, if left unchecked, would grow exponentially. But species are subject to constraints – or negative feedback mechanisms – such as predators and limited food supplies.</p>
<p>The Anthropocene engine has allowed humans to emancipate ourselves from many of the negative feedback mechanisms that otherwise would have kept the population’s growth in check. We intensified food production, developed trade among regions and discovered medications to survive diseases. </p>
<p>Where does this leave humanity now? Are we approaching inevitable collapse from climate change of our own making, or can we transition again and discover innovations that reset the cycle?</p>
<p>Introducing negative feedback into our socioeconomic-technical systems – not as radical population control or war, but in the form of norms, values and regulations on excess greenhouse gas emissions – can help keep climate change in check. </p>
<p>Humanity can use knowledge to keep itself within its environmental boundaries.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated Nov. 15, 2022, to reflect the population passing 8 billion.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193075/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Manfred Laubichler receives funding from The National Science Foundation. He is affiliated with the Santa Fe Institute, the Max Planck Institute for the History of Science, the Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, and the Global Climate Forum. </span></em></p>The UN estimates the global population will pass 8 billion people on Nov. 15, 2022. From the Stone Age to today, here’s how things spiraled out of control.Manfred Laubichler, Global Futures Professor and President’s Professor of Theoretical Biology and History of Biology, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1888652022-08-23T12:24:41Z2022-08-23T12:24:41ZA tale of two climate policies: India’s UN commitments aim low, but its national policies are ambitious – here’s why that matters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480454/original/file-20220822-64771-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C39%2C2915%2C1812&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Indian government is encouraging the use of electric vehicles, particularly scooters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-cycling-and-using-electric-scooters-at-rajpath-on-news-photo/1227977178">Arvind Yadav/Hindustan Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the United Nations climate talks in Glasgow in 2021, Indian Prime Minister <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-surprises-cop26-climate-summit-2070-target-net-zero-emissions-n1282933">Narendra Modi surprised the world when he announced</a> that his country would zero out its greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2070. It was a landmark decision, acknowledging that long-term decarbonization is in India’s interest.</p>
<p>However, climate change is threatening lives, crops and India’s economy today. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61242341">New Delhi endured extreme heat</a> for several weeks in early 2022, with temperatures regularly crossing 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 Celsius). The previous year, cyclones, flash floods and extreme rainfall destroyed more than <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/climate-crisis-has-cost-india-5-million-hectares-of-crop-in-2021-80809">12 million acres of crops</a>, contributing to a global spike in food prices. At the same time, energy demand is rising in a country forecast to pass China as the <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf">world’s most populous</a> in 2023.</p>
<p>So, when the dust settled around the net zero announcement, scrutiny turned to India’s short-term ambitions for the coming decade. </p>
<p>On Aug. 26, 2022, India <a href="https://unfccc.int/NDCREG">formally submitted</a> its <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-08/India%20Updated%20First%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contrib.pdf">second set of international climate commitments</a>, known as its <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/all-about-ndcs">Nationally Determined Contribution</a>, or NDC, to the United Nations, including its short-term climate targets and strategies for meeting them.</p>
<p>India has the potential to set the tone for emerging economies’ climate action over the coming decade. However, its NDC commitments significantly understate the ambition in its own national climate policies. These mixed signals could slow down India’s burgeoning energy transition and hamper its ability to raise international climate finance.</p>
<h2>India’s 2030 climate targets</h2>
<p>India’s new climate commitments include <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1847812">two primary targets for 2030</a>. One is to reduce <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/what-is-the-difference-between-absolute-emissions-and-emissions-intensity/">emissions per unit of gross domestic product</a>, or GDP, by 45%, relative to the year 2005. The other is to increase “non-fossil” electricity – solar, wind, nuclear and hydropower – to half of the country’s electricity capacity.</p>
<p>While these targets are an improvement over India’s commitments when it joined the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a> in 2015, they are largely a continuation of the country’s “business-as-usual” emissions trajectory. A fast-growing country can reduce its emissions per GDP and increase its emissions.</p>
<p>Views differ on whether this is acceptable. There is considerable debate around what each country’s “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1970504">fair share” of the global carbon budget is</a>, given industrialized countries’ significantly larger contribution to per capita and cumulative greenhouse emissions.</p>
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<h2>India’s state climate policies are more ambitious</h2>
<p>India currently meets about a <a href="https://powermin.gov.in/en/content/annual-reports-year-wise-ministry">quarter of its electricity demand</a> with nonfossil energy, about <a href="https://powermin.gov.in/en/content/power-sector-glance-all-india">160 gigawatts of power generation capacity</a> in all. It added 15.4 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity in 2021-22, the <a href="https://www.ren21.net/reports/global-status-report/">third-highest increase in the world</a>.</p>
<p>In its national policies, India has stated that it intends to more than triple nonfossil electricity capacity to <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1772347">500 gigawatts by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>That’s an ambitious increase, but it draws inspiration from evolving realities: Electricity generated from renewables is now cheaper at auction than coal-fired power. Renewable energy with energy storage is also expected to be <a href="https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/solar-and-wind-power-costs-in-india-will-be-comparable-to-coal-in-2025-moodys/79300584">cheaper than coal</a> within this decade, driven partly by the government’s <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1846078">$2.5 billion boost</a> for energy storage manufacturing in India.</p>
<p>Displacing coal as the grid’s primary generation source seems technically and economically viable at last.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man crouches in a field, inspecting crops. Behind him are a line of solar panels." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A farmer works near solar panels in a village about 30 miles from Ahmedabad.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/farmer-works-near-solar-panels-installed-in-a-farmland-at-news-photo/1230949710">Sam Panthaky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The counterpoint is that India has set and missed ambitious renewable energy targets before – it will fall short of its goal, set in 2010, of reaching 100 gigawatts of solar and 60 gigawatts of wind power capacity <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/india-investment-renewables-green-energy/">by 2022</a>. This may partially explain the reluctance to formally commit to higher international targets.</p>
<p>The government is also <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/">still granting loans for new coal power plants</a> and providing higher subsidies for coal than for renewable energy. These are legacies of its “<a href="https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/indias-policy-pathways-for-deep-decarbonisation/">all-of-the-above” energy policy</a> driven by the continuing need to drastically improve affordable energy access. While the government is beginning to consider what a “<a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/green-jobs/WCMS_824102/lang--en/index.htm">just transition</a>” away from coal would cost, it is planning for an <a href="https://coal.nic.in/sites/default/files/2022-05/31-05-2022a-wn.pdf">increase in coal production</a> for power generation and industrial processes over the coming decade. </p>
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<p>There’s a similar contrast between India’s national policies on clean transportation and industrial decarbonization and its international commitments.</p>
<p>The government is aiming for <a href="https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/rmi-niti-ev-report.pdf">electric vehicles</a> to be 30% of private car sales, 70% of commercial vehicle sales and 80% of two- and three-wheeler sales by 2030. It initiated a national mission in 2019 to create a domestic EV and battery manufacturing base with a <a href="https://www.indiatimes.com/technology/news/indian-government-gives-huge-boost-to-evs-with-10x-budget-under-second-phase-of-fame-scheme-363015.html">$1.2 billion budget</a>. This includes expanding charging infrastructure from 2,000 to tens of thousands of locations nationwide <a href="https://www.niti.gov.in/index.php/node/1579">over the coming decade</a>. Indian Railways, the fourth-largest in the world, has a goal of being a zero emissions network <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1638269">by 2030</a>.</p>
<p>For industry, India has efficiency targets in 13 energy-intensive sectors, including cement and thermal power plants, and a market to trade energy savings certificates between companies. Last year, the government said the program prevented the release of <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=1725448">87 million metric tons of carbon dioxide</a>, or approximately 3% of the country’s annual emissions.</p>
<p>If these policies are fully implemented, India’s emissions trajectory is almost certain to be lower than its U.N. commitment implies. But these sectors do not feature in its commitments.</p>
<h2>Parliament weighs legally enforceable targets</h2>
<p>The Indian Parliament is about to elevate some of these policy targets to legally enforceable mandates. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://prsindia.org/billtrack/the-energy-conservation-amendment-bill-2022">Energy Conservation Amendment</a>, passed by the lower house, proposes renewable power purchase targets for industries, inclusion of large residential buildings in the energy conservation code, and energy consumption standards for vehicles and vessels. It also empowers the government to create a national carbon trading market.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People walk in a heavy downpour. One man is drenched, and even umbrellas don't seem to be helping." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">India has faced both record deluges and extreme heat in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-indian-man-walks-through-heavy-rain-along-a-street-in-news-photo/932770726">Biju Boro/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The private sector is paying attention to these policy signals, the falling cost of producing clean electricity and transportation, and the projected rising energy demand as the country develops. India’s largest conglomerates have set aggressive <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/renewables/view-private-sector-driving-renewable-energy-wave-in-india/articleshow/90724802.cms?from=mdr">renewable electricity expansion targets</a>. Indian automakers are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/indian-businesses-seek-government-support-meet-2030-ev-target-2021-10-14/">competing to invest</a> in EV manufacturing and pushing the government to speed up disbursement of subsidies and incentives. But the same conglomerates are also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-adani-power-buy-db-power-879-mln-2022-08-19/">expanding coal investments</a>, illustrating the importance of avoiding mixed policy signals.</p>
<h2>Positive effects on economies and employment</h2>
<p>Bold targets are useful, even if there is uncertainty around how they will be met.</p>
<p>I have followed developing countries’ international commitments while working on climate policy with New Delhi think tanks <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/cierp/tarun-gopalakrishnan-junior-fellow/">and Tufts University</a>, and I have participated in international negotiations <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/overview/overview">as an observer</a>.</p>
<p>India’s mixed messaging on climate targets is part of a broader <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/08/15/after-finally-passing-a-climate-bill-us-calls-on-others-to-act/">reluctance among large developing economies</a> to accelerate their efforts to rein in climate change without <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/climate-finance/the-big-picture/introduction-to-climate-finance">finance from developed countries</a>. Developed countries in 2015 <a href="https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_15/application/pdf/cop15_cph_auv.pdf">promised to deliver $100 billion a year</a> for decarbonization and adaptation in developing economies, but they <a href="https://us.boell.org/en/2021/10/25/broken-promises-developed-countries-fail-keep-their-100-billion-dollar-climate-pledge">have yet to meet that target</a>. </p>
<p>Our research at Tufts University’s <a href="https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/indias-policy-pathways-for-deep-decarbonisation/">Climate Policy Lab</a> indicates that ambitious climate policies supported by international finance have a positive effect on GDP and employment. Communicating its national ambitions in its <a href="https://100re-map.net/conditional-and-unconditional-climate-action-in-ndcs/">conditional NDC targets</a> could have done more to attract the international finance India needs to fully implement them.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated with India submitting its NDC on Aug. 26, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188865/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tarun Gopalakrishnan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>India’s international climate pledge could set the tone for other emerging economies for a decade.Tarun Gopalakrishnan, Junior Fellow, Climate Lab, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1865742022-07-18T13:49:42Z2022-07-18T13:49:42ZNigeria’s large, youthful population could be an asset or a burden<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473194/original/file-20220708-21-ts9vsb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigeria's large population of young people may become a burden if not healthy and well educated.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vendor-carries-nigerian-national-flags-on-october-1-2015-as-news-photo/490811636?adppopup=true">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With a population estimated at <a href="https://guardian.ng/business-services/industry/nigerias-population-now-206m-says-npc/">206 million in 2020</a>, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/">seventh in the world</a>.</p>
<p>The country’s <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_LqDbc249sq_bo_Cmpa8VSZBmk8fHJSj/view">population is growing at 2.6% a year</a>, one of the fastest rates globally. At this rate, Nigeria’s population could double within the next 25 to 30 years. </p>
<p>Nigeria’s population structure is potentially an economic asset. The country has the largest <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/">population of youth</a> in the world, with a median age of 18.1 years. <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/">About</a> 70% of the population are under 30, and 42% are under the age of 15. </p>
<p>The size and youthfulness of the population offer great potential to expand Nigeria’s capacity as the regional economic hub of Africa and globally. A young, large population could be an economic asset because population growth and urbanisation go together and <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/can-rapid-population-growth-be-good-for-economic-development">economic development is closely correlated with urbanisation</a>. Population growth increases density and, together with rural-urban migration, creates higher urban agglomeration. This can help companies in producing goods in larger numbers and more cheaply, serving a larger number of low-income customers. </p>
<p>But the potential needs to be properly harnessed. Leaders must invest (through health and education) and adopt strong policies to create an environment where this human resource is used optimally. Such was the case among the Asian Tiger countries, which invested massively in technology, infrastructure and education.</p>
<p>Nigeria is, by every measure of socioeconomic progress, failing to develop its endowment of young people. Millions of young people have a poor quality of life, including a lack of education, low living standards and poor health outcomes. </p>
<p>Nigeria is not reaping the benefits of its current population structure and must do more to mitigate the negatives. A large population of unskilled, economically unproductive, unhealthy and poorly educated young people is also a burden to society.</p>
<h2>Poor human development</h2>
<p>Nigeria was ranked 158 of 185 countries in the <a href="https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/NGA.pdf">2019 Human Development Index</a>. A <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/03/21/afw-deep-structural-reforms-guided-by-evidence-are-urgently-needed-to-lift-millions-of-nigerians-out-of-poverty#:%7E:text=According%20to%20the%20report%2C%20which,below%20the%20national%20poverty%20line.">2022 World Bank report</a> also says about 40% of Nigerians live below the national poverty line of U$1.90 per day and about 95.2 million are in poverty. About <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/agriculture/agric-news/516720-19-4-million-nigerians-to-face-food-insecurity-by-august-2022-fao.html">19.4 million Nigerians</a> are likely to face food insecurity in 2022. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.unicef.org/nigeria/education">UNICEF</a>, Nigeria accounts for 20% of the world’s children who are out of school. In absolute terms, about 10.5 million children, the majority of whom are girls, do not have access to education in Nigeria.</p>
<p><a href="https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/856">Unemployment is high at 33.3%</a>. Most of those who are unemployed are women and young people. Of those with jobs, over 20% are underemployed as they don’t earn enough.</p>
<h2>Health indicators</h2>
<p>Most of the health indicators in Nigeria are disturbing. Health is key for human development and this means that Nigeria is lagging behind in development.</p>
<p>Health facilities are at sub-optimal levels. Nigerians <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2902488-0">currently</a> have a lower life expectancy (54 years) than many of their neighbours. The country’s burden of chronic and infectious diseases is high. While infectious diseases remain the primary causes of death in the country, <a href="https://www.afro.who.int/news/nigeria-fulfils-commitment-launches-plan-prevention-and-control-non-communicable-diseases">non-communicable diseases account for 3 out of every 10 deaths</a>.</p>
<p>While Nigeria is failing to develop her human capital, Nigerians are making more babies, adding to the potential burden.</p>
<h2>Fertility</h2>
<p>The national fertility rate stands at <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/SR264/SR264.pdf">about</a> 5 children per woman. There are regional variations. It is also lower in urban areas (4.5) than in rural areas (5.9); lower in the Southwest (3.9) than in the Northwest (6.6). In other words, poorer households are worse off, particularly those in the rural areas. Also, poor women and those with no or low education are disproportionately affected.</p>
<p>There were <a href="https://www.dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/FR359/FR359.pdf">20 adolescent mothers (aged 15-19) among every 100 adolescent girls </a> in Nigeria, with <a href="https://archpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13690-022-00789-3">wide variations</a> across states and regions. This is <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3402/gha.v8.29745">among the highest in the world</a> and is associated with high risk births, adverse social-economic consequences, limited opportunities and a likely pathway to <a href="http://www.ghheadlines.com/agency/ghana-news-agency/20191112/132518617/adolescent-parenthood-escalates-generational-poverty-nigerian-professor">intergenerational poverty</a>. </p>
<p>The unmet need for modern contraception has been estimated at <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/SR264/SR264.pdf">over 20%</a>. Modern contraceptives help to prevent unwanted pregnancy. This is imperative for improving maternal and child health. A lack of access to contraception perpetuates the high maternal and infant mortality, and high fertility in the country.</p>
<p>Currently, the infant mortality <a href="https://data.unicef.org/country/nga/#/">is 72 deaths per 1,000 live births</a>. Maternal mortality is estimated at 512 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. The national target is to reduce maternal mortality to 72 per 100,000 live births and zero deaths by 2030. </p>
<h2>High dependency</h2>
<p>Nigeria has a relatively high and growing population of dependants. This could put a strain on those who provide for them. Young people account for a bigger share of the dependants, a situation which will get worse unless there is a deliberate public policy to address high fertility.</p>
<p>The age structure of the population suggests that for every 100 people in the economically active age group (15-64), there are 86 dependants (under 15 and over 64). This compares with the <a href="https://www.worldeconomics.com/Country-Data/">78.1 average</a> for the African continent, 52 for South Africa.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO?end=2021&locations=NG&start=2021&view=bar">about 6 million people aged over 65</a>. Though this equates to only 3% of population, it is numerically larger than the population of some states in Nigeria. In 2020, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203462/dependency-ratio-in-nigeria/#:%7E:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20elderly%20dependency,(15%20to%2064%20years).">the elderly dependency ratio in Nigeria stood at 5.1</a>. This means that there were about five people aged 65 years and older that depend on every 100 people of working age (15 to 64 years). This number of dependants, in addition to children, can reduce the capacity of the working age population to save and invest. </p>
<p>Other groups with high dependency in Nigeria are those with disabilities and the displaced. </p>
<p>The percentage of disabled Nigerians stands at <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_LqDbc249sq_bo_Cmpa8VSZBmk8fHJSj/view">about</a> 2.3%, comparable to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09687599.2018.1556491">Ghana’s 3%</a>, but far less than <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=percentage+of+disability+in+south+africa+population&oq=percentage+of+disability+in+south+africa+population&aqs=chrome..69i57.13625j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">South Africa’s 7.5%</a>. But Nigeria <a href="https://www.scidev.net/sub-saharan-africa/features/facts-figures-disabilities-in-developing-countries-1/">doesn’t have plans</a> for addressing the needs of its disabled.</p>
<p>The country is also home to <a href="https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/nga#_ga=2.105709184.2034587582.1657237059-239904064.1657237059">over 3 million internally displaced people</a> and <a href="https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/nga#_ga=2.105709184.2034587582.1657237059-239904064.1657237059">over 82,000 international refugees</a>, mostly from neighbouring countries.</p>
<h2>Demographic dividend</h2>
<p>Nigeria needs to balance population growth with economic prosperity. This makes it possible to achieve a demographic dividend – faster economic growth arising from a favourable population age structure and favourable social and economic policies. </p>
<p>Some countries in Asia including <a href="https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/9/wang.pdf">China</a>, <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/blog/what-comes-after-demographic-dividend-east-asia-finding-out">Hong Kong</a>, <a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/99030/2005_06_East_Asian_Economic.pdf">South Korea</a> and <a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/99030/2005_06_East_Asian_Economic.pdf">Singapore</a> have benefited substantially from this. Nigeria should aim to make a transition to low birth and death rates. Government at all levels must invest towards addressing high fertility and mortality. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-2022-census-is-overdue-but-preparation-is-in-doubt-177781">Nigeria's 2022 census is overdue but preparation is in doubt</a>
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<p>Nigerians need to embrace family planning and address some of the root causes of high fertility, including sociocultural factors. A reduction in fertility by one child per childbearing woman <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(12)60827-7.pdf">would lead to a 13% increase</a> in Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 20 years or a 25% increase over 50 years.</p>
<p>As stated in the <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_LqDbc249sq_bo_Cmpa8VSZBmk8fHJSj/view">population policy document</a>, Nigeria should aim to reduce fertility from the current 5.3% to 4.3% by 2030. Family planning should be available to all and there should be no maternal deaths by 2030.</p>
<p>Education is key to good health, empowerment, employment and peaceful societies. It offers the best return on investment. Graduates in sub-Saharan Africa earn <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/442521523465644318/pdf/WPS8402.pdf">21% more than</a> those without tertiary education.</p>
<p>Nigeria must prioritise investment in education, health and infrastructure to harness the opportunities of its huge population. But Nigerians have a role to play too. They must make rational decisions and choices. These include choices about investment in quality of life, healthy living, fertility reduction and the empowerment of young people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>There is nothing to disclose.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Akanni Ibukun Akinyemi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nigeria must prioritise investment in education, health and infrastructure to harness the opportunities of its huge population.Akanni Ibukun Akinyemi, Professor of Demography and Social Statistics., Obafemi Awolowo UniversityJacob Wale Mobolaji, Lecturer, Demography and Social Statistics, Obafemi Awolowo UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1839442022-06-14T14:37:53Z2022-06-14T14:37:53ZAir pollution in fast-growing African cities presents a risk of premature death<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468341/original/file-20220611-18059-dln7lp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C0%2C4682%2C3142&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Road traffic is one of the causes of air pollution in Lagos, Nigeria.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/motorists-queue-in-a-chaotic-traffic-gridlock-following-news-photo/1142442342?adppopup=true">Photo by Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ten more African cities have signed on to the <a href="https://www.c40.org/news/african-cities-clean-air-declaration/">C40 Clean Air Cities Declaration</a> to improve air quality. C40 is an international group of mayors collaborating to make cities more environmentally sustainable. </p>
<p>In May 2022, Abidjan, Accra, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Ekurhuleni, Freetown, Johannesburg, Lagos, Nairobi and Tshwane joined Durban, the first African city to sign the declaration.</p>
<p>As part of the C40 pledge, city leaders have committed to actions to tackle air pollution and slow human-caused changes in climate. These include actions such as setting targets that follow the World Health Organisation’s clean air <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/what-are-the-who-air-quality-guidelines">guidelines</a>. </p>
<p>This is a welcome commitment, as air pollution is a leading burden on global health. More than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00090-0">6.5 million</a> people die prematurely from exposure to air pollution each year worldwide. And air quality is worsening in African cities during a period of rapid growth and development. African cities are forecast to grow by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247816663557">3 - 31% annually</a> from now until the end of the century. This is far steeper than growth rates in Indian cities, at about 1 - 3% per year. </p>
<p>A major challenge in combating air pollution in Africa’s cities is the scarcity of data. Air quality <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590162119300437">is not monitored</a> in most cities and resources to compile inventories of the types and sizes of sources contributing to air pollution are lacking. All these efforts are costly and require sustained, long-term funding. </p>
<p>Publicly available data from <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/6275/2021/">satellite observations</a> provide a picture of multiple air pollutants. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm4435">In our recent study</a>, we sampled these data over fast-growing cities in the tropics, including 26 in Africa. Our investigation covered a 14-year period between 2005 and 2018. </p>
<p>We determined that the quality of air is declining at unprecedented rates. We found that the cause is a shift from rural to urban sources and that combined worsening air quality and population growth is linked to 180,000 additional premature deaths. </p>
<p>Such harmful effects will persist without bold air quality policies.</p>
<h2>Shift in pollution</h2>
<p>For centuries, air pollution in Africa has been dominated by <a href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/289/2013/cp-9-289-2013.pdf">open burning of biomass</a>. This is a common practice by farmers in the dry season to clear land and to prepare for the next sowing season. The smoke produced is full of <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29504/124342-BRI-p153343-PUBLIC-march-22-9-pm-WB-Knowledge-Burning.pdf?sequence=1">pollutants</a>, bad for people and the environment.</p>
<p>This is now changing, in cities at least. </p>
<p>In our <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm4435">analysis</a> we identified that urban pollution sources have surpassed rural biomass burning as the main cause for worsening air pollution in cities. Satellite observations are too coarse (~10 km) to pinpoint the exact sources, but we can speculate that these include road traffic, burning of waste, and household use of fuels like <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.0c03754">charcoal</a> and wood. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm4435">Our study</a> focused on the fastest growing cities in the tropics. Amongst these are Lagos (<a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22007/lagos/population">population 15.4 million people growing at 3.5% per year</a>) in Nigeria, Dar es Salaam (<a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22894/dar-es-salaam/population">population 7.4 million people, 5.1% per year</a>) in Tanzania, and Kinshasa (<a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/20853/kinshasa/population">population 15.6 million people, 4.4% per year</a>) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. </p>
<p>The air quality indicators we tracked were fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) and the gas-phase compounds nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ammonia (NH3), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). These either directly impact health (PM2.5, NO2) or form air pollutants that do (VOCs, NH3). These can all be produced from traffic, and burning of household waste and fuel. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Many people gathered together" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468344/original/file-20220611-31449-n1s348.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468344/original/file-20220611-31449-n1s348.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468344/original/file-20220611-31449-n1s348.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468344/original/file-20220611-31449-n1s348.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468344/original/file-20220611-31449-n1s348.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468344/original/file-20220611-31449-n1s348.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468344/original/file-20220611-31449-n1s348.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dar es Salaam has a population of 7.4 million people. Photo by Daniel Hayduk/AFP via Getty Images)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/congolese-men-collect-plastic-bottles-on-the-edge-of-the-news-photo/967066148?adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Health hazards</h2>
<p>The shift from rural to urban sources, combined with rapid population growth, is leading to more people living in closer proximity to air pollution and worsening population health. </p>
<p>Of most concern is PM2.5, as these particles are about 30 times smaller than the diameter of a strand of human hair. PM2.5 penetrate deep into our lungs and go on to have a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/may/17/air-pollution-may-be-damaging-every-organ-and-cell-in-the-body-finds-global-review">range of effects on health</a>, leading to premature death. Most prominent are heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections. </p>
<p>We used health risk assessment and atmospheric chemistry models, along with the satellite data, to estimate that premature mortality from sustained exposure to these small particles has steadily increased in 21 of the fastest growing cities in Africa. It’s risen from <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm4435">84,000 in 2005 to 110,000 in 2018</a>. This is on average about 2,000 avoidable deaths each year. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map of some African cities" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468785/original/file-20220614-22-e9f42t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468785/original/file-20220614-22-e9f42t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468785/original/file-20220614-22-e9f42t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468785/original/file-20220614-22-e9f42t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468785/original/file-20220614-22-e9f42t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468785/original/file-20220614-22-e9f42t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468785/original/file-20220614-22-e9f42t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map showing premature deaths in cities studied.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Karn Vohra</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A third of these deaths are in five of the 10 cities that have signed on to the C40 declaration: Abidjan, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Lagos and Nairobi. The steepest increase in early deaths of about 300 people per year is in Kinshasa, a city yet to join the pledge. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Many people gathered for a rally" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468345/original/file-20220611-43412-x1lmsw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468345/original/file-20220611-43412-x1lmsw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468345/original/file-20220611-43412-x1lmsw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468345/original/file-20220611-43412-x1lmsw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468345/original/file-20220611-43412-x1lmsw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468345/original/file-20220611-43412-x1lmsw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468345/original/file-20220611-43412-x1lmsw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kinshasa is yet to sign the clean air cities declaration. Photo: John Wessels/AFP via Getty Images.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/congolese-men-collect-plastic-bottles-on-the-edge-of-the-news-photo/967066148?adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The number of people dying prematurely from exposure to air pollution is three times lower in African cities than in Asia, where the shift to urban sources of air pollution is <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2019-1122/acp-2019-1122.pdf">well under way or has already occurred</a>. This is in part because improvements in healthcare in Africa are counteracting the adverse effects of air pollution on health leading to decline in overall mortality. In Addis Ababa in Ethiopia, for example, the number of deaths could have been almost double the values we estimated without improvements in healthcare. But this offsetting won’t last if air quality continues to degrade and healthcare improvements taper off.</p>
<p>Twenty-six cities in Africa are <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0956247816663557">predicted to be megacities by 2100</a>, reaching unprecedented sizes. By 2100, Lagos may be home to 80 million people; more than double the current largest city of Tokyo. </p>
<p>Access to emission control and renewable energy technologies are cheaper and easier to use than ever before. The C40 pledges are a step in the right direction, but more cities need to join to safeguard public health across the continent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karn Vohra received funding from the University of Birmingham Global Challenges Studentship.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eloise Marais receives funding from UK Research Councils, the European Commission, and the Stockholm Environment Institute. </span></em></p>Twenty-six fast-growing African cities may battle health challenges if air pollution is not addressed.Karn Vohra, Research Fellow, UCLEloise Marais, Associate Professor in Physical Geography, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1768892022-03-28T19:15:08Z2022-03-28T19:15:08ZOur population is expected to double in 80 years. We asked Australians where they want all these people to live<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453504/original/file-20220322-19-1iyrgp4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C3994%2C2976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s population is projected to grow to <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3222.0main+features52012%20(base)%20to%202101">over 50 million people by 2101</a>. This will have enormous implications for the country’s long-term infrastructure planning and prized livability, particularly in the capital cities where most growth is occurring. </p>
<p>Our recently published <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/3CVAYXHNZ9U6EFCXUJIT/full?target=10.1080/08111146.2021.2006175">research</a> examined ways we can start planning for this doubling of our population now, while we still have time to address it. Our survey asked more than 1,000 people where they think these new Australians should live, to gauge their support for different settlement patterns. </p>
<p>We presumed a net-increase of 28 million people over the next 80 years, with half of those people dispersing across existing Australian cities and towns. We then asked our respondents where would they support the other 14 million people living. </p>
<p>The study is the first of its kind to gauge community opinion on these questions at a national scale. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Plan My Australia survey.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Not surprisingly, our survey found strong opposition to continued growth of the state capital cities. Instead, our participants showed a strong preference for encouraging people to move to new and expanded satellite cities and rail hubs in regional areas. This finding aligns with the general <a href="https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tandfonline.com%2Ftoc%2Fcppr20%2Fcurrent&data=04%7C01%7Cjulian.bolleter%40uwa.edu.au%7Cfb98bea8d7ba4f8fd14b08d9e89388eb%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C0%7C0%7C637796542647241448%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=2nwdnySacGaj%2BwdK53YHX5AHKXLC4qYdB8wtkhbnFxA%3D&reserved=0">urban-to-regional migration that was kindled by the pandemic</a>. </p>
<p>Our aim was to understand people’s preferences for managing population growth at the national scale, with the hope it will inform a national urban policy to prepare for the coming population surge.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-cities-its-an-idea-worth-thinking-about-for-australia-92990">New cities? It's an idea worth thinking about for Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Where do we want to live?</h2>
<p>We devised our settlement pattern scenarios based on possibilities that have been proposed by <a href="https://uwap.uwa.edu.au/products/made-in-australia-the-future-of-australian-cities">academics</a> and <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/plan-australias-future-population">policy-makers</a>. Here’s how they ranked in order of popularity with our respondents:</p>
<p><strong>1. Satellite Cities:</strong> Due to the affordability and livability issues confronting the state capitals, this scenario siphons long-term population growth to 14 satellite cities like Gold Coast, Geelong and Wollongong. Respondents considered this scenario to be the most sustainable and feasible, while also ensuring livability. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>2. Rail Cities:</strong> Inspired by rail hubs in other countries, this second placed scenario funnels population growth to 18 regional cities connected to the state and federal capitals by major high-speed rail links (yet to be built). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rail Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>3. Inland Cities:</strong> This scenario distributes population growth to 29 key inland centres, many with at least hypothetical capacity to take on more people.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Inland Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>4. Western Cities:</strong> Western Australia comprises one-third of the continent but houses just over one-tenth of the population. Accordingly, this scenario boosts the populations of nine cities and towns along the west coast. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Western Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>5. Northern Cities:</strong> Given northern Australia’s considerable economic output and proximity to Asia, this scenario envisions an increase of the population of the nine largest northern cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Northern Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>6. Sea Change Cities:</strong> Given the ever-escalating costs of coastal real estate in the capitals, this scenario channels population growth to 25 alternative sea-change cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sea Change Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>7. Secondary Capital Cities:</strong> Given the livability and affordability issues in Sydney and Melbourne, this scenario sees more people moving to the smaller state and territory capital cities. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Secondary Capital Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>8. Megacities:</strong> Melbourne and Sydney generate the bulk of Australia’s GDP and historically have attracted the most migrants. This lowest-ranked scenario would see this trend continue with concentrated population growth in two future Australian megacities. Respondents universally loathed this scenario.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Megacities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why satellite and rail hubs are so appealing</h2>
<p>As the rankings show, Australians generally support population decentralisation away from state capitals (in particular Melbourne and Sydney) with the expansion of satellite and rail cities.</p>
<p>Such sentiments could stem from a case of national-scale NIMBY-ism (“not in my backyard”). However, over a third of our respondents were from regional and remote areas, and most of these people supported population growth in their home towns.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-australias-population-the-highest-growing-in-the-world-96523">FactCheck: is Australia's population the 'highest-growing in the world'?</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<p>We argue that expanding satellite and rail cities is a smart plan for the future because it can achieve equitable distribution of population growth and protect urban livability. Moreover, these schemes allow for better adaptation to climate change by generally avoiding coastal areas that are vulnerable to sea-level rise. </p>
<p>However, expanding regional centres into major cities comes with <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340772460_Bolleter_J_2018_The_ghost_cities_of_Australia_Springer_London">considerable challenges</a>, such as attracting industries and jobs away from the capital cities, delivering the crucial enabling infrastructure of ports, airports, rail lines, schools, housing and medical centres, and overcoming environmental challenges like water security. </p>
<h2>Why we need a national urban policy</h2>
<p>This type of ambitious planning requires a national urban policy, which is currently lacking in Australia. Our current population planning is too fragmented and uncoordinated, with states, territories and local governments all having divergent views about our common future. It resembles a <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/9431">patchwork quilt</a>.</p>
<p>As we emerge from the disruptive restrictions caused by the pandemic, which led many to embrace tree- and sea-change moves away from the capitals, there’s no better time to pursue such a coordinated national plan. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1369162287060226048"}"></div></p>
<p>There’s already some semblance of political will. The Coalition has spruiked policies for “<a href="https://cdn.liberal.org.au/pdf/policy/2016%20Coalition%20Election%20Policy%20-%20Smart%20Cities.pdf">smart cities</a>” and negotiating “<a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/territories-regions-cities/cities/city-deals">city deals</a>”, which unite local, state and federal governments on key projects. Labor, meanwhile, is fixated on building <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/our-policies/sydney-to-hunter-fast-rail">high-speed east coast rail</a>. </p>
<p>With an election looming, will either party take a harder look at the bigger question here and announce plans for a national urban policy? We can’t pretend this population boom isn’t happening – and our cities need to be ready.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Bolleter receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Freestone receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Our survey found strong opposition to Australian megacities, with most people preferring population growth to be in satellite cities and rail hubs outside the capitals.Julian Bolleter, Deputy Director, Australian Urban Design Research Centre, The University of Western AustraliaRobert Freestone, Professor of Planning, School of Built Environment, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1773592022-02-20T03:13:15Z2022-02-20T03:13:15ZWhen we open up, open up big: economists say we need more migrants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447397/original/file-20220220-43570-1rg80d3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=395%2C11%2C3544%2C1982&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s leading economists have overwhelmingly endorsed a return to the highest immigration intake on record, saying Australia should aim for at least 190,000 migrants per year as it opens its borders, up from the target of 160,000 per year set ahead of COVID.</p>
<p>More than a third of those surveyed believe 190,000 isn’t enough, arguing that a “catch up” will show Australia is open to the world. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447150/original/file-20220217-21-xlp6cd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447150/original/file-20220217-21-xlp6cd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447150/original/file-20220217-21-xlp6cd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447150/original/file-20220217-21-xlp6cd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447150/original/file-20220217-21-xlp6cd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447150/original/file-20220217-21-xlp6cd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447150/original/file-20220217-21-xlp6cd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Economic Society of Australia/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison cut Australia’s migration ceiling from 190,000 to 160,000 places per year in March 2019, in order to “<a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/plan-australias-future-population">tackle the impact of increasing population in congested cities</a>”.</p>
<p>The 49 economists who took part in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/esa-conversation-national-economic-poll-87063">Economics Society of Australia poll</a> were selected by their peers for their expertise in macroeconomics, microeconomics and economic modelling. One is a member of the Reserve Bank board.</p>
<p>Ahead of COVID, Australia’s permanent intake has only been as high as 190,000 on five occasions, during the five years 190,000 was the official target.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Annual migrant intake in the years leading up to COVID</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447209/original/file-20220218-19-13h5kw4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447209/original/file-20220218-19-13h5kw4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447209/original/file-20220218-19-13h5kw4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447209/original/file-20220218-19-13h5kw4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447209/original/file-20220218-19-13h5kw4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447209/original/file-20220218-19-13h5kw4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447209/original/file-20220218-19-13h5kw4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447209/original/file-20220218-19-13h5kw4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2122/Quick_Guides/AustraliasMigrationProgram">Parliamentary Library 2021</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>The government’s intergenerational report released mid last year assumed a <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/p2021_182464.pdf">return</a> to an intake of 190,000 per year in 2023-24.</p>
<p>Only four of the 49 economists surveyed by The Economic Society and The Conversation wanted less migration than Australia had going into COVID.</p>
<p>Their concerns were that growing population numbers put pressure on “fragile resources and infrastructure”. Slower population growth would “ease pressures on the environment, housing prices, infrastructure and emissions”. </p>
<p>Adelaide University labour market specialist Sue Richardson said there was no evidence high levels of migration raised GDP per person, as opposed to GDP.</p>
<h2>Congestion and the environment matter</h2>
<p>“In terms of living standards, it is the per capita measure that matters,” she said. “And it should be adjusted for increased traffic congestion, urban density and pressures on the health and other important social systems.”</p>
<p>The six economists who thought an annual intake of 160,000 was about right made the point that what mattered more was the composition of the intake. There should be less unskilled migration, more skilled migration and a “decent humanitarian program”.</p>
<p>The 19 economists who went for 190,000 argued less would show a “lack of ambition” for lifting economic growth.</p>
<p>Helen Silver, chief general manager at Allianz Australia and a former head of Victoria’s Department of Premier and Cabinet said a higher target would be both a “catch up” and would act to symbolise Australia was more open to the world.</p>
<h2>Australia benefits from being open</h2>
<p>Any target would need to be flexible and responsive to the capacity of Australia’s heath and other systems given the ongoing pandemic. </p>
<p>Melbourne University economist John Freebairn said a larger population would enable Australia to capture economies of scale and fill gaps in high skill and low skill jobs caused by labour market rigidities and failures in training systems. </p>
<p>It would increase the government’s tax take net of spending and help build a more dynamic and interesting society, as it had in the past.</p>
<p>The 18 economists (37.5% of the total) who said 190,000 was not enough argued that Australia’s status as a nation of immigrants gave it a formidable advantage. </p>
<h2>190,000 could be considered a floor</h2>
<p>UNSW economist Gigi Foster said in the wake of Australia’s responses to COVID its challenge was not so much what target to set, but rather how to convince immigrants to come here.</p>
<p>Melbourne University ‘s Chris Edmond said if Australia had the same per capita target as Canada it would have a permanent intake of 250,000 per year. </p>
<p>The University of Sydney’s James Morely said 190,000 was less than 1% of the population and was in any event not a target for <em>net</em> migration as that would be determined by the number of Australians who left and returned, and the number who came in temporarily under other schemes.</p>
<p>Given low birth rates and a need for a balanced age profile Australia should probably target permanent visas of 320,000 - 1.25% of the current population.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-myth-that-wont-die-stopping-migration-did-not-kickstart-the-economy-176457">A myth that won't die: stopping migration did not kickstart the economy</a>
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<hr>
<p>RMIT’s Leonora Risse said what mattered was that the migration intake was accompanied by policies designed to ensure migrants reached their potential.</p>
<p>When considering an upper limit on migration, we should keep in mind that 30% of all Australians were born overseas. For 20% of Australians, one or both parents were born overseas. Australia would not be what it was were it not for migration.</p>
<p>Notably absent from most of the 49 responses was discussion of the impact of migration on wages and the employment of locals.</p>
<p>The experts surveyed seemed to regard these impacts as not particularly big in either direction compared to the impacts of migration on dynamism, Australia’s place in the world, and its environment, infrastructure and social cohesion. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Detailed responses:</em></p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-666" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/666/5375810b6771d7add8557ad3b7342afc04193f96/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/top-economists-say-cutting-immigration-is-no-way-to-boost-wages-165394">Top economists say cutting immigration is no way to boost wages</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177359/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One third of the economists surveyed say Australia’s migration target should be lifted to 190,000 per year. Another third say 190,000 is not enough.Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1764572022-02-09T19:09:02Z2022-02-09T19:09:02ZA myth that won’t die: stopping migration did not kickstart the economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445274/original/file-20220208-13-h2ntt5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=679%2C787%2C3058%2C1908&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s unemployment rate – <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">now at 4.2%</a> – is at its lowest in more than a decade. It’s not too far off slipping below 4%, something that hasn’t happened for the best part of half a century.</p>
<p>This good news story has ignited fierce debate over who deserves the credit. </p>
<p>The prime minister and the Reserve Bank governor believe it is them. They delivered both the biggest government stimulus package in history and the lowest interest rates in history.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Australia’s unemployment rate, 1901 to February 2022</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445329/original/file-20220209-37168-gp0gro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445329/original/file-20220209-37168-gp0gro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445329/original/file-20220209-37168-gp0gro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=247&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445329/original/file-20220209-37168-gp0gro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=247&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445329/original/file-20220209-37168-gp0gro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=247&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445329/original/file-20220209-37168-gp0gro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445329/original/file-20220209-37168-gp0gro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445329/original/file-20220209-37168-gp0gro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Monthly seasonally adjusted data from 1978, quarterly unadjusted data from 1966 to 1978, annual data (collected differently) prior to 1966.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/whats-driving-australias-record-low-unemployment-border-closures-or-stimulus/">Sources: ABS Labour Force, ABS Labour Force Historical Timeseries, MW Butlin, A Preliminary Annual Database 1900/01 to 1973/74</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>But others disagree, most notably ACTU Secretary <a href="https://twitter.com/sallymcmanus/status/1488628657531002880?s=21">Sally McManus</a> who tweeted last week that the reason unemployment rates were low was closed borders. </p>
<p>It had “nothing to do” with economic management. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1488628657531002880"}"></div></p>
<p>So who’s right? No matter <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/whats-driving-australias-record-low-unemployment-border-closures-or-stimulus/">how we run the numbers</a> we find it’s economic management. On balance, closed borders might have helped us, but because they prevented Australians from leaving, rather than others from arriving. </p>
<h2>Arrivals boost demand as well as supply</h2>
<p>New arrivals (often migrants) most certainly do add to the supply of labour. They compete with pre-existing Australians for jobs.</p>
<p>But that’s only half the story.</p>
<p>The other half is that new arrivals consume goods and services, for a while at a greater rate than Australians who have been here longer. They save less or run down savings in order to do it.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-right-immigration-helps-us-rather-than-harms-us-113919">The government is right – immigration helps us rather than harms us</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>By buying more, they add to the demand for goods and services, and for workers to produce them.</p>
<p>If migrants enter Australia to work, but then spend more than they are paid, they might even create more jobs than they ‘take’.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445331/original/file-20220209-23-kuh34x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bar chart showing the expenditure of people born in Australia is similar to those who have arrived in recent decades. But a second panel shows recent arrivals dissave, spending more than they earn, whereas Australians save a bit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445331/original/file-20220209-23-kuh34x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445331/original/file-20220209-23-kuh34x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445331/original/file-20220209-23-kuh34x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445331/original/file-20220209-23-kuh34x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445331/original/file-20220209-23-kuh34x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445331/original/file-20220209-23-kuh34x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445331/original/file-20220209-23-kuh34x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/whats-driving-australias-record-low-unemployment-border-closures-or-stimulus/">Grattan Institute analysis of ABS household Expenditure Survey 2016</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>The net effects are small</h2>
<p>Most recent research confirms that migrants both take and create jobs, finding little overall impact on the employment or wages of existing workers. </p>
<p>One study even found temporary skilled migrants <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1971/gpaa009.pdf">boosted</a> the wages of lower-skilled Australians by prompting them to move up into higher-paid jobs.</p>
<p>In an in-depth study conducted in 2016, the <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/migrant-intake#report">Productivity Commission</a> concluded</p>
<blockquote>
<p>there was almost no evidence that immigration is associated with worse (or better) labour market outcomes for Australian-born people</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Of course, the pandemic is a unique event. Research only takes us so far. </p>
<p>But in <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Unemployment_statistics">Europe</a> and the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">United States</a> where borders remained open, unemployment also fell to near historic lows, suggesting it was something other than closed borders that did it. </p>
<h2>But staff shortages are real</h2>
<p>The number of migrants fell dramatically after COVID began. This reduced both the supply of and demand for labour, but the composition affected some industries more than others. </p>
<p>Before the pandemic, about one in six workers in hospitality were temporary migrants, many of them international students.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-halved-international-student-numbers-in-australia-the-risk-now-is-we-lose-future-skilled-workers-and-citizens-175510">COVID halved international student numbers in Australia. The risk now is we lose future skilled workers and citizens</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There are roughly half as many international students in Australia now as in 2019. Working holiday makers, who made up about 4% of the agriculture workforce, are almost entirely absent. </p>
<p>The staff shortages are real. Labour supply in those sectors has dramatically shrunk while demand for their services has continued. Eventually those employers will make other arrangements or the supply of backpackers and international students will resume.</p>
<h2>Closed borders helped, by keeping Australians here</h2>
<p>Oddly, there was an aspect of closed borders that boosted GDP.</p>
<p>As it happens, Australians spend more overseas each year than Australia makes from tourists coming here. </p>
<p>As economist <a href="https://www.sauleslake.info/protracted-border-closures-are-a-new-form-of-protectionism/">Saul Eslake</a> points out, banning our population from leaving has been a perverse windfall. Money that would have otherwise been spent overseas has been spent at home.</p>
<p>Bureau of Statistics figures suggest that closing the border might have contributed <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/balance-payments-and-international-investment-position-australia/latest-release">$28 billion</a> to Australia’s trade balance compared to 2019. </p>
<h2>It’s stimulus that mattered</h2>
<p>Putting the story together in the chart below, it’s clear that stimulus (both “fiscal” from the government, and “monetary” from the Reserve Bank) boosted the economy far more than did closed borders.</p>
<p>The dark-blue bar captures the decline in spending overseas on travel and education as fewer Australians travelled, while the light-blue bar captures both the decline in spending on Australian education and travel, and the effects of fewer working migrants, as fewer visitors arrived. </p>
<p>Both are swamped by stimulus, which is marked in dark and light orange. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445332/original/file-20220209-21-s0r1nv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Stacked column chart showing the change in GDP per person due to border closures and stimulus. The effect of fewer departures is mostly offset by fewer arrivals. Monetary and fiscal policy are large in comparison" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445332/original/file-20220209-21-s0r1nv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445332/original/file-20220209-21-s0r1nv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445332/original/file-20220209-21-s0r1nv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445332/original/file-20220209-21-s0r1nv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445332/original/file-20220209-21-s0r1nv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445332/original/file-20220209-21-s0r1nv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445332/original/file-20220209-21-s0r1nv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/whats-driving-australias-record-low-unemployment-border-closures-or-stimulus/">Estimates are current Australian dollars per person per year and subject to revision. Grattan analysis of ABS 5302.0 and IMF and various RBA publications. Click on link for detailed notes</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>The Federal Government set aside <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus">$291 billion</a> for stimulus payments. Including tax breaks and state government support, the International Monetary Fund comes up with a total of <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Fiscal-Policies-Database-in-Response-to-COVID-19">$362 billion</a>. </p>
<p>While some JobKeeper ended up in the hands of shareholders, the scale of the stimulus cannot be denied. Assuming a relatively conservative <a href="https://theconversation.com/cutting-unemployment-will-require-an-extra-70-to-90-billion-in-stimulus-heres-why-141376">fiscal multiplier</a> of 60 cents for each dollar of fiscal support, these supports are set to boost Australian gross domestic product by $217 billion, or roughly $8,600 per person. </p>
<p>The Reserve Bank’s actions might have added $70 billion to GDP over two years. Without these supports the economy would have found itself in a huge hole during the pandemic. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unemployment-below-3-is-possible-if-australia-budgets-for-it-176025">Unemployment below 3% is possible – if Australia budgets for it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our low unemployment today is a testament to the success of economic policy. </p>
<p>Attributing it to closed borders runs the risk of leaving us with the wrong lesson the next time the economy turns down.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176457/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute's board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Ballantyne and Will Mackey do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Attributing Australia’s economic success to closed borders runs the risk of leaving us with the wrong lesson the next time the things turn down.Brendan Coates, Program Director, Economic Policy, Grattan InstituteAlex Ballantyne, Senior Associate, Economic Policy, Grattan InstituteWill Mackey, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1703762021-10-28T19:11:56Z2021-10-28T19:11:56ZLocal training is the best long-term solution to Australia’s skills shortages – not increased migration<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428918/original/file-20211027-17493-1i2kot.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-woman-making-coffee-espresso-while-1788739724">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In mid October, the New South Wales government’s <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/australia-needs-explosive-surge-of-2-million-migrants-20211011-p58z0n">top bureaucrats urged</a> new Premier Dominic Perrottet to push for “an aggressive resumption of immigration levels” to spur post-pandemic economic recovery.</p>
<p>Industry seized on this as the answer to skills shortages that have resulted from Australia’s border closures. The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry <a href="https://www.australianchamber.com.au/news/population-numbers-reveal-plan-desperately-needed-for-labour-and-skills-shortages">called</a> for a near doubling of the skilled migration program, to around 200,000 annually over the next five years.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1447678762900852737"}"></div></p>
<p>In the same week, the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) <a href="https://www.ncver.edu.au/news-and-events/media-releases/apprentice-and-trainee-numbers-grow">released a report</a> that showed a 35% increase in the number of Australians enrolled in courses linked to apprenticeships and traineeships, compared to the start of the pandemic. But the news seemed to fly under the radar.</p>
<p>This significant rise in training may not satisfy those who want a quick solution to the skills shortages. But growth in Australia’s vocational education and training sector is a more sustainable way of filling the gaps.</p>
<h2>Where are the skills shortages?</h2>
<p>Earlier this year, a <a href="https://www.treasury.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/2021-22_nsw_intergenerational_report.pdf">NSW</a> and <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2021-intergenerational-report">federal</a> government report suggested increased skilled migration would be a big part of Australia’s future success after a pandemic-induced fall in migration and population growth.</p>
<p>More recently, Infrastructure Australia <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-10/Infrastructure%20Workforce%20and%20Skills%20Supply%20report%20211013.pdf">anticipated</a> skilled job shortages could rise to around 100,000 by 2023. It argued Australians needed an urgent skilled migration program but that some skills shortages were likely to persist in the significant post-COVID infrastructure boost. </p>
<p>A June 2021 <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/business-indicators/business-conditions-and-sentiments/latest-release">ABS survey</a> showed more than a quarter (27%) of Australian businesses were having difficulty finding qualified staff. Among the skilled trades, these were mainly in hospitality, sales, transportation, construction and mining. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1452408036128002049"}"></div></p>
<p>But there are many issues with relying on migration to fix these, beyond a decrease in international travel due to COVID.</p>
<h2>Migration not the magic bullet</h2>
<p>Demographer <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/so-australia-wants-to-welcome-migrants-again-good-luck-with-that-20211021-p591te.html">Liz Allen has argued</a> the migration effort may be problematic due to more aggressive international competition to attract needed workers, such as in health care, and Australia’s reduced attractiveness as a destination.</p>
<p>Also, the upcoming <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/living-in-australia-and-overseas/recent-and-upcoming-policy-changes">longer waiting periods</a> for new Australian migrants to access welfare payments can make similar destinations like Canada and New Zealand more attractive.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/migration-is-a-quick-fix-for-skills-shortages-building-on-australians-skills-is-better-159207">Migration is a quick fix for skills shortages. Building on Australians' skills is better</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Meanwhile, an aggressive migration strategy may not be politically palatable. <a href="https://tapri.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/TAPRI-survey-Oct-2021-final-V3.pdf">Research shows</a> only 19% of voters agreed with the government’s long-term migration target. The rest supported lower levels, including 28% who wanted nil net migration.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1453136236776869889"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="https://population.org.au/media-releases/igr2021/">Another argument</a> made by the likes of Reserve Bank governor <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/immigration-levels-a-factor-in-sluggish-wages-growth-rba-governor-20210708-p587z2.html">Philip Lowe</a> is that a lower population leads to tightening of labour markets, fewer unemployed and employers improving wages and conditions causing employment participation rates to rise.</p>
<p>So, what’s a better way to fill the skills gap?</p>
<h2>Apprenticeships and traineeships on the rise</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.jobsandskills.wa.gov.au/training/apprenticeships-and-traineeships">Apprenticeships and traineeships</a> enable individuals to work and learn on the job while they complete a nationally recognised qualification.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/apprentices-and-trainees-2021-march-quarter-australia">NCVER report</a> (quarterly, to March 2021) shows 329,585 apprentices and trainees were in training, an annual growth rate of 20.7%.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1451345066338004996"}"></div></p>
<p>Commencements in traineeships and apprenticeships increased by 28.5% to 186,745. Of significance are increases such as 45.1% in the 25-44 years group and 58.2% in the over 45 years group. This raises the possibility they are re-training or upskilling, perhaps precipitated by the pandemic.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trade-apprentices-will-help-our-post-covid-19-recovery-we-need-to-do-more-to-keep-them-in-work-135830">Trade apprentices will help our post COVID-19 recovery. We need to do more to keep them in work</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The growth rate in commencements was approximately the same in trades and non-trades. In trades, technical staff in IT, engineering and science recorded the greatest growth rate. In non-trades, this was for managerial/professional and administrative roles. These are some of the <a href="https://www.nationalskillscommission.gov.au/2021-skills-priority-list">roles identified</a> as being in current shortage or expected to be in strong future demand.</p>
<h2>More Australians training up since pandemic</h2>
<p>One reason for this increase is that during the pandemic, federal and state governments increased spending in re-skilling initiatives. Government programs included the Boosting Apprenticeships Commencements program (and its <a href="https://ministers.dese.gov.au/robert/morrison-government-expands-support-apprentices-secure-australias-future-workforce">expansion</a>) and <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/skills-reform/jobtrainer-fund">JobTrainer</a>, which gave 17-24 years looking for work a way to study a course in high-demand sectors for free or by paying a low fee. </p>
<p>Another reason may be that a <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/great-attrition-or-great-attraction-the-choice-is-yours">record number of people</a> meeting the shock of the pandemic have either quit their job or are thinking about doing so in developed economies. More than 19 million US workers have quit their jobs since April 2021. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1449419912817033216"}"></div></p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">ABS unemployment data</a> shows fewer Australians are applying for jobs or participating in the workforce. In September 2021, the participation rate fell by 333,000 people and hit a 15-month low, with just 64.5% of people aged 15 and over currently working or actively looking for work.</p>
<p>These data suggest some Australians, whether voluntarily or not, are enrolling in VET courses to retrain themselves for new jobs.</p>
<h2>Can domestic training solve the skills shortage?</h2>
<p>There is growing evidence the increase in apprentices and trainees will help alleviate skills shortages in sectors of the economy flexible enough to take them on — and patient enough to see them trained through the system. Traditionally, these are sectors which have been more exposed to market volatility such as mining and construction. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Rethinking-permanent-skilled-migration-Grattan-Report.pdf">Grattan Institute report</a> suggests most skills shortages in a market economy are likely to be temporary. It argues our flexible labour market and relatively demand-driven higher education and VET sectors should lead to increased supply of most in-demand skills over time.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1398958312108871680"}"></div></p>
<p>A <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2021-intergenerational-report">federal report</a> estimates that to make up for skills shortages caused by an ageing population, there needs to be an annual migrant inflow of as much as 400,000. This is much higher than what employers are calling for. This means even with migration intakes, there is still a key role for domestic training to make up the projected skills gaps.</p>
<p>But for this to happen, the momentum in skills system innovation recommended in the <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/resource-centre/domestic-policy/vet-review/strengthening-skills-expert-review-australias-vocational-education-and-training-system">Joyce Review</a> — to ensure the VET sector can keep up with rapidly changing industry needs — should be accelerated.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-keeps-talking-about-revamping-vet-but-is-it-actually-doing-it-117743">The government keeps talking about revamping VET – but is it actually doing it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The federal government will need to continue working with states and territories, the training sector and industry on VET reform to ensure it is ready for the technological and demographic changes to work. For example, the fourth industrial revolution is disrupting traditional Australian jobs and workers are growing increasingly worried they will be displaced by technology. </p>
<p>It is unlikely earlier efforts to meet the requirements of these skills (such as by <a href="https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-the-implications-of-technological-disruption-for-australian-vet">sending employees overseas</a> to train at Industry 4.0 centres of excellence) will be as easy as before. Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13602381.2018.1431250">research</a> has shown that besides human capital (knowledge that exists in individuals), innovation in Australia is also driven by social capital (knowledge that exists in groups and networks), which is harder to import. </p>
<p>Hence the need for Australia to develop adequate self-reliance in skills that cannot be easily imported. </p>
<p>If the trend of apprenticeship and traineeship commencements continues to rise to where they were about a decade ago, this may help address the skills shortages. This will still be in the medium to long term as it takes time for people to be trained and qualified.</p>
<hr>
<p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some in government and industry aim to fill Australia’s skills shortages with migration policies. But VET numbers are up, suggesting many Australians are re-skilling. We could encourage more of this.Pi-Shen Seet, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Edith Cowan UniversityJanice Jones, Associate Professor, College of Business, Government and Law, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1656192021-08-11T14:57:59Z2021-08-11T14:57:59ZBook review: Nigeria has democracy but not development. How to fix it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415067/original/file-20210807-24-1pkdksf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigeria recently started commercial operation of a China-assisted railway linking the southwestern cities of Lagos and Ibadan. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Emma Houston/Xinhua via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After struggling for 39 years to develop a fertile ground for democratic governance, Nigeria had its turning point in May 1999 when it became the <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/nigeria/1979-12-01/democracy-nigeria">world’s fourth largest democracy</a>. This came after <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/04/weekinreview/oct-28-nov-3-massacre-in-nigeria.html">16 years</a> of brutal military rule.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/nigeria-has-a-history-of-dodgy-elections-will-it-be-different-this-time-111093">Despite complaints of fraud</a> by political opposition in each election held since 1999, local and international <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/may/29/nigeria-elections-free-fair-democracy-kofi-annan">election observers</a> have regarded each of Nigeria’s general elections as relatively free and fair.</p>
<p>On the economic front, Nigeria is now the largest economy in Africa and <a href="https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/nigeria-maintains-her-lead-as-the-largest-economy-in-africa-26th-largest-economy/t62z11j">26th globally</a>. It now attracts more foreign investments than in the military era.</p>
<p>Taken together, the Nigerian democratic experiment seems to have come a long away.</p>
<p>But has democracy led to development in Nigeria? The award-winning international political economist Omano Edigheji, in his new book, <a href="https://rhbooks.com.ng/product/nigeria-democracy-without-development-how-to-fix-it/">Nigeria Democracy Without Development: How To Fix It</a>, argues powerfully that Nigerian democratic experiment is marred by monumental flaws. This is notwithstanding the modest progress it has achieved. </p>
<p>The book offers interesting detail and finely reasoned conjecture about the paradoxical relationship between democracy and development in Nigeria. </p>
<p>In this review, I organise the main ideas of the book into three parts:</p>
<ul>
<li>the paradox of democracy without development in Nigeria; </li>
<li>explanations of democracy without development in Nigeria; and </li>
<li>pathways to democracy with development in Nigeria.</li>
</ul>
<h2>The paradox of liberal democracy</h2>
<p>The book demonstrates that Nigeria continues to face massive developmental and institutional challenges. This is despite the implementation of western liberal democracy and the good governance reforms driven by donors. The challenges include human capital deficits and extreme poverty. This is due to under-investment in health, education and infrastructure. For example, <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/NGA.pdf">Nigeria’s human development index</a> value for 2020 was 0.539, placing the country in the low human development category.</p>
<p>Of all African countries, Nigeria faces the most significant challenges for reducing poverty and inequality due to rapid population growth. More than <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/lsms/brief/nigeria-releases-new-report-on-poverty-and-inequality-in-country">40% of Nigerians</a> (83 million people) live below the poverty line of $1.90 a day.</p>
<p>Another 25% (53 million) are vulnerable. Yet, the combined wealth of Nigeria’s five richest men is $29.9 billion. According to a <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/nigeria-extreme-inequality-numbers">recent report</a> by Oxfam International, the combined wealth of the Nigeria’s five richest men could end national poverty. The implication here is that democracy has led to massive increases in poverty and economic inequality in Nigeria.</p>
<p>The book flags another major challenge: high unemployment, which has continued to increase since 1999. At <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-15/nigeria-unemployment-rate-rises-to-second-highest-on-global-list">33%</a>, Nigeria’s unemployment rate is among the highest in the world. Youth unemployment is higher than for older workers. This means the risks of violent conflict and civil unrest are especially high.</p>
<p>And despite anti-corruption campaigns, Nigeria is still perceived to be one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Nigeria <a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2020/index/nga">ranked 149 out of 180 countries in 2020</a>, the second lowest in West Africa after Guinea-Bissau.</p>
<p>Then there is the security issue. Bandits, separatists and Islamist insurgents increasingly threaten government’s grip on power. Mass kidnappings, killings, maiming and other forms of insecurity are on the rise nationwide. This is true even in more stable parts of the country.</p>
<p>By and large, the book empirically demonstrates that the democratic experiment of the last 20 years has had negative results on Nigerians. Nigeria’s corrupt political elites (with a few exceptions) have largely been the beneficiaries of the democratic experiment. Not the masses.</p>
<h2>Explanations of democracy without development</h2>
<p>Edigheji focuses on structural and agent-based factors of the state as the likely explanatory factors behind Nigeria’s democracy without development. More specifically, Edigheji zooms in on two principal explanations that account for democracy without development: poor leadership and weak institutions. In this, he goes beyond the conventional argument that the prospects of democracy and development in a post-colonial country are invariably linked to its level of economic development, political culture and social make-up.</p>
<p>First, he blames Nigeria’s democracy without development on two factors. These are a lack of an ideology of development nationalism and the preponderance of politics without principles. The ideology of development nationalism is not only about national identity, consciousness or a feeling of belonging to a particular nation. Instead, it is premised on the need to catch up and to overcome underdevelopment, dependence on foreign countries and poverty.</p>
<p>The ideology of development nationalism, Edigheji argues, can only be promoted by developmentalist or patriotic elites. That’s because they do not engage in the politics of self-enrichment that undermines the collective national interest. Instead, they make necessary sacrifices to achieve their collective goals.</p>
<p>Developmentalist elites have a shared vision for national development. This includes massive investment in the provision of public goods. These include education, healthcare and infrastructure, or national policies, such as international trade and monetary policy.</p>
<p>Nigeria’s political elites since 1999 have not been developmentalist. They have been rent-seeking and predatory.</p>
<p>The second contributing factor to democracy without development has been the capture of the state. This has been achieved through a non-merit-based recruitment and promotion of civil servants, the core of which is the civil service.</p>
<p>The efficient and effective management of the civil service is central to sustainable and equitable economic development. This is underscored by the experiences of the Asian Tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) and the Tiger Cub economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam).</p>
<p>In the 1960s and 1970s, Nigeria had one of the best and most meritocratic civil services in Africa. It was made up of mostly career civil servants. They progressed based on qualifications, performance and seniority.</p>
<p>Today, however, Nigeria has one of the worst civil services in Africa. Recruitment and promotion have become politicised and ethnicised, particularly since 1999. The result has been that the best and brightest Nigerians are no longer in the civil service.</p>
<p>Non-merit-based recruitment and promotion have brought about inefficiency in the public service, low-levels of economic development and higher corruption.</p>
<h2>Pathways to democracy with development</h2>
<p>For Nigeria to overcome its developmental and institutional deficits, Edigheji argues for a democratic developmental state. The term developmental state was coined during much of the 1980s and 1990s to describe countries which had experienced rapid economic growth through state-led interventions. These include Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam.</p>
<p>Edigheji sets out some of the key elements of a democratic developmental state:</p>
<p>First, Nigerian politics needs to be driven by developmentalist elites whose politics is anchored on the people and political parties based on ideology. </p>
<p>Second, the political elites need to transform the structure of the economy. They can do this by promoting human capital development, infrastructural development, and industrialisation. They must also combat the challenges of insecurity, corruption and climate change.</p>
<p>But achieving these depend on inclusive political and economic institutions.</p>
<h2>Unanswered question</h2>
<p>Notwithstanding the enormous contributions of the book, some questions remain to be fully answered. These include the suitability of the developmental state model as a panacea for Nigeria’s challenges. </p>
<p>The first question centres on understanding the processes that produced developmental states. How did developmental states achieve their successes in economic development? What worked, what didn’t, and why? </p>
<p>The second centres on the possibilities and the lessons Nigeria can draw from developmental states elsewhere. Would a developmental state model work in Nigeria? If yes, how? </p>
<p>Overall, the book makes a compelling argument for why democracy has failed to produce inclusive development in Nigeria. It offers perceptive insights into what the country needs to do to overcome its developmental and institutional deficits. It’s a very illuminating book and enjoyable to read. It is a valuable book for students, scholars, policymakers, politicians and development practitioners who want to comprehend the political dynamics of Nigeria. It is also an important contribution to the literature on the challenges of democracy and development in the global South.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165619/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayokunu Adedokun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In his new book, Nigeria Democracy Without Development: How To Fix It, international political economist Omano Edigheji explains why democracy has not led to development in Nigeria.Ayokunu Adedokun, Assistant Professor of Public Policy and International Development, Leiden UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.