tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/rajapaksa-7716/articlesRajapaksa – The Conversation2018-10-30T12:59:10Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1059902018-10-30T12:59:10Z2018-10-30T12:59:10ZSri Lanka: as constitutional crisis triggers fears of ‘bloodbath’, concern mounts for minorities<p>A constitutional crisis has erupted in Sri Lanka, prompting fears of a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-46019280">“bloodbath”</a>. The crisis was triggered when the country’s president, <a href="https://twitter.com/MaithripalaS">Maithripala Sirisena</a>, sacked the prime minister, <a href="https://twitter.com/RW_UNP">Ranil Wickramasinghe</a>, and appointed the former president, <a href="https://twitter.com/PresRajapaksa">Mahinda Rajapaksa</a>, as his replacement.</p>
<p>Wickramasinghe and his supporters claim that Sirisena’s move is unconstitutional. Indeed, Wickramasinghe still considers himself to be prime minister and refuses <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/26/world/asia/sri-lanka-political-crisis.html?fbclid=IwAR1Rze9xwvKqTSlreMGjHsbrtPy5VdmwHqD7rN3Jlp_rd7kbPywwu9hAgK4">to step down</a>, leaving Sri Lanka with two prime ministers. Wickramasinghe also has prominent supporters, including finance and media minister, Mangala Samaraweera, who wrote on Facebook that Sirisena’s action amounted to a coup: </p>
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<p>Sirisena initially claimed that he had the constitutional right to fire Wickramasinghe. But he subsequently admitted that Sri Lanka was in a political crisis and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/sri-lanka-president-suspends-parliament-political-crisis-181027072445604.html">suspended parliament</a>. </p>
<p>On October 28, there were reports of gunshots fired against an angry mob following an attack on another of Wickramasinghe’s supporters, the former petroleum minister, Arjuna Ranatunga. One member of the mob <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/sacked-sri-lanka-pm-stays-put-crisis-deepens-071104764.html?fbclid=IwAR0h3tqOBX_3y1vBmxa4_FOvKxfrivt_6Mc-a1L8-birqonECR6_n7FLSaM">was killed</a> and two were injured.</p>
<p>Sirisena has been strongly criticised over the last few days. The speaker of parliament, Karu Jayasuriya, <a href="https://scroll.in/latest/899973/sri-lankan-crisis-speaker-recognises-wickremesinghe-as-prime-minister-questions-sirisenas-moves">questioned</a> Sirisena’s action in a statement issued on October 28. He then reportedly <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-46019280">told journalists the next day</a>:</p>
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<p>We should settle this through parliament, but if we take it out to the streets, there will be a huge bloodbath.</p>
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<p>Meanwhile, Rajapaksa, the new prime minister, has <a href="http://static.ow.ly/docs/English%20Statement_82k7.pdf">called for fresh parliamentary elections</a>, and “a new democratic beginning and the rejection of the politics of hate”. </p>
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<h2>Chaos reigns</h2>
<p>This political chaos has a long back story. Rajapaksa’s appointment by Sirisena came as a surprise to many as the two former allies had become rivals during the 2015 presidential election. Rajapaksa had been president since 2005, but <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30738671">was narrowly defeated by Sirisena in 2015</a>. Rajapaksa was also accused of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/20/sri-lanka-says-mahinda-rajapaksa-officials-hid-more-than-2bn-in-dubai">corruption and nepotism</a> during his time as president.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, it’s not entirely surprising that Sirisena has chosen Rajapaksa as his prime minister over Wickramasinghe. Even though they were political allies in Sri Lanka’s unity government, the relationship between Sirisena and Wickramasinghe was beset by problems. During the last few years, they had been unable to agree on economic policy or how to run the country in general. In fact, the United People’s Freedom Alliance, recently quit the unity government <a href="http://www.adaderana.lk/news/50984/upfa-decides-to-quit-unity-govt">of Wickramasinghe as a result</a>.</p>
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<p>Another reason why Sirisena has turned to Rajapaksa is that the latter has proved that he still has enough power to garner votes. In February 2018, Sri Lanka held local elections – during which Rajapaksa and his newly formed political party, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/andreas-johansson/sri-lanka-local-elections-return-of-rajapaksa">won a major victory</a>, which shook Sirisena’s presidency. </p>
<p>Local elections in Sri Lanka do not have the same impact as the parliamentary or presidential elections, but Rajapaksa’s win showed that he is still politically attractive to the majority Sinhala community. Even though he was defeated by Sirisena in the 2015 presidential election, Rajapaksa clearly has no intention of giving up his desire to become a key political figure. </p>
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<p>With the next presidential election scheduled for 2020, Sirisena’s appointment of the popular Rajapaksa may well be a way for the former to bolster his presidency when voters go to the polls. </p>
<h2>The role of China and India</h2>
<p>Another consideration is the role of China – or rather the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/sri-lanka-ex-president-rajapaksa-makes-a-comeback-amid-china-india-tug-of-war/a-46061444?fbclid=IwAR2EElX1OW8jE40X0zOyFhNXx5xLYkzxUS7xPqGss-QMpvaQbfqnaRsMZo8">proxy power struggle</a> between India and China over Sri Lanka.</p>
<p>During Rajapaksa’s presidency, China invested heavily in infrastructure projects around the country and Rajapaksa continues to have strong ties with the emerging superpower. Wickramasinghe’s government, on the other hand, had set its sights on India, which promised to invest in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/26/world/asia/sri-lanka-political-crisis.html?fbclid=IwAR1Rze9xwvKqTSlreMGjHsbrtPy5VdmwHqD7rN3Jlp_rd7kbPywwu9hAgK4">country’s infrastructure</a>. Wickramasinghe’s recent <a href="https://www.newsfirst.lk/2017/11/21/pm-wickremesinghe-commences-official-visit-india/">visit to India</a> was a clear indication of where his priorities lay, possibly putting at risk China’s investment in the country.</p>
<p>To complicate matters further, a police officer was recently <a href="https://thewire.in/south-asia/sri-lankan-policeman-arrested-over-alleged-president-sirisena-assassination-plot">arrested and charged</a> with planning to assassinate president Sirisena. A newspaper in India also stated that Sirisena had accused the Indian intelligence services of being behind <a href="https://thewire.in/south-asia/sri-lankan-policeman-arrested-over-alleged-president-sirisena-assassination-plot">this plot</a>. Sirisena has not confirmed this, but it could explain why he’d favour closer ties with Rajapaksa (and China) over Wickramasinghe (and India). </p>
<p>India made an official statement on October 28 saying that it hoped that <a href="https://scroll.in/latest/899973/sri-lankan-crisis-speaker-recognises-wickremesinghe-as-prime-minister-questions-sirisenas-moves">“democratic values would be respected”</a>. China’s ambassador in Sri Lanka, meanwhile, congratulated Rajapaksa on his new appointment: </p>
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<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>When Sirisena was elected president in 2015 he promised to look into the war crimes that Sri Lanka was accused of by the international community following the end of the country’s bloody civil war in 2009. This was something that Rajapaksa had avoided doing during his presidency.</p>
<p>A UNHCR report accused both the Sri Lankan government and the Tamil Tigers <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/sl-war-crimes-rajapaksa-is-left-alone-to-take-the-blame/story-WAYtQqBj2JSVWzEjZK8OvI.html">of war crimes</a>. But three years into Sirisena’s presidency and he has now clearly sided with the Sri Lankan armed forces, claiming that no war crimes were committed by the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/sri-lanka-leader-shield-general-war-crimes-case-170903193335527.html">government</a>. In this sense, Sirisena and Rajapaksa have another thing in common. </p>
<p>But could this spark a whole new wave of violence? Certainly, the political situation is worrying for Sri Lanka’s minority Tamil and Muslim communities. With the government in crisis, there are also now murmurs of <a href="https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/gotabhaya-rajapaksa-and-his-bala-sena/">a new wave of Sinhala nationalism</a> – and inflammatory exchanges between the two sides will do nothing to stem it. The fire has been laid, it seems; the question now is when it will be lit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andreas Johansson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Could the country now face a return to civil war?Andreas Johansson, Director of Swedish South Asian Studies Network (SASNET), Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/460592015-08-18T12:06:29Z2015-08-18T12:06:29ZSri Lanka’s election thwarts Rajapaksa and sets the scene for deeper reform<p>Sri Lanka’s parliamentary election appears to have delivered a firm endorsement of the ruling United National Front for Good Governance (UNFGG) coalition. The result scotches an attempted political comeback by the country’s former president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, and consolidates the position of Maithripala Sirisena, who <a href="https://theconversation.com/sri-lanka-stunned-as-rajapaksa-election-gamble-fails-to-pay-off-35971">defeated him</a> in the presidential elections in January.</p>
<p>Back then, most were hopeful that Sirisena’s win would reverse the slide towards authoritarianism over which Rajapaksa had presided since 2005. Things have not gone entirely to plan since then – but this latest result has saved Sri Lanka from a big step backwards. </p>
<p>A victory for the main opposition coalition, the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), would have led to calls for Rajapaksa to be installed as prime minister, which would have seriously undermined Sirisena’s progressive agenda. Instead, while the UNFGG coalition does not appear to have won an overall majority, its leader Ranil Wickramasinghe is now expected to form a unity coalition with support from both Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and several minority parties. </p>
<p>Optimists are hopeful that that the UNFGG’s win will restore political stability, boost economic performance and provide space for the consolidation of Sirisena’s <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/good-governance-a-key-theme-of-the-new-front/article7414059.ece">“good governance” agenda</a>, which has had trouble getting off the ground. </p>
<h2>Room for manoeuvre</h2>
<p>Since his victory, Sirisena has taken important steps to foster a more open political climate and reassert the rule of law. Key measures have included <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-32507779">reinstating the presidential term limit</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/14/us-pope-srilanka-prisoners-idUSKBN0KN1MX20150114">releasing detainees</a>, and reining in the surveillance and intimidation of <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/sri-lanka-journalists-in-exile-in-nepal-to-return-mangala-samaraweera/article7146856.ece">journalists</a> and civil society organisations.</p>
<p>But the national government that came to power after Sirisena’s election didn’t command a majority in parliament and it has struggled to make good on a range of other promises. While several high-profile investigations into alleged <a href="http://www.ciaboc.gov.lk/web/">corruption</a>, <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/11/uk-sri-lanka-election-idUKKCN0QG0FK20150811">political murders</a> and <a href="http://www.pcicmp.lk/">disappearances</a> have been initiated, there have been no major indictments. </p>
<p>Perhaps most worryingly, a recent <a href="http://www.freedomfromtorture.org/system/tdf/documents/sl_report_a4_-_final-f-b-web.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=8501">report</a> from Freedom from Torture UK shows that the torture and rape of Tamil detainees has continued during Sirisena’s presidency, concluding that “torture is an entrenched part of the state apparatus in Sri Lanka, enduring under successive political leaders.” </p>
<p>The general election campaign intensified an internal split within Sirisena and Rajapska’s SLFP, with Sirisena taking increasingly bold measures to maintain unity in the face of mounting pressure from Rajapksa loyalists. </p>
<p>Rajapaksa’s campaign focused heavily on traditional nationalistic concerns about the dangers of resurgent Tamil separatism. Although he proved very able to mobilise a committed following in the Sinhala Buddhist heartlands, his campaign was widely viewed as uninspiring. At times he cut a diminished figure in a campaign starved of state patronage. </p>
<p>Sirisena struck a more inclusive tone. He resisted calls for Rajapaksa to be appointed prime minister in the event of a UPFA victory and penned a scathing <a href="http://groundviews.org/2015/08/17/letter-by-president-maithripala-sirisena-to-mahinda-rajapaksa/">letter</a> to the former president just before the elections in which he attacked him for “igniting the flames of communalism” (meaning the primacy of ethnic allegiances over patriotism) by playing on the fears of the Sinhalese majority.</p>
<h2>High hopes</h2>
<p>An important early test for the new government will be its response to a UN war crimes report due to be published in September. The prime minister, Ranil Wickramasinghe has <a href="http://www.rappler.com/world/regions/south-central-asia/101582-sri-lanka-act-un-war-crimes-report">promised</a> to address any issues raised in the report, but that will be far from straightforward, not least because of the military’s entrenched position and the Sinhalese majority’s deep-set opposition to any international investigations. </p>
<p>The UNFGG coalition will also have to focus on simply holding itself together. It includes a broad spectrum of political groupings and agendas, spanning both main parties (the UNP and SLFP), several minority parties, and the Buddhist JHU. The new government will have the onerous task of holding this unwieldy alliance together, and of building the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to pass constitutional changes.</p>
<p>Although both Sirisena and Wickramasinghe are committed to reform, neither has backed further devolution of powers to the provinces. This is one of the core demands of the main Tamil grouping, the TNA, which performed strongly in yesterday’s poll. Many Tamils, inured by previous broken promises by politicians from both major parties, remain unconvinced that Sirisena and Wickramasinghe represent a break from the past. </p>
<p>Sri Lankan democracy suffered a profound setback under Rajapaksa’s authoritarian government. While the electoral boost to Sirisena’s good governance agenda signals a clear shift away from the abuses of the Rajapaksa era, Sri Lanka still faces many of the same challenges it did in 2009, particularly the need to build more inclusive state institutions and address demands for accountability and <a href="https://www.srilankacampaign.org/what-next-part-2-deconstructing-transitional-justice/">reconciliation</a>.</p>
<p>Overcoming those long-term challenges <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/sri-lanka/272-sri-lanka-between-elections.aspx">demands</a> a sensitive and comprehensive strategy from the new government, as well as careful and committed support from international governments and civil society. It’s a tall order – but with a Rajapaksa comeback off the cards, at least for now, the chances are better than ever.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46059/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Walton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sri Lanka’s authoritarian former president failed to persuade his country to have him back. Could it herald a new era of progress?Oliver Walton, Lecturer in International Development, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/359712015-01-09T11:10:12Z2015-01-09T11:10:12ZSri Lanka stunned as Rajapaksa election gamble fails to pay off<p>Sri Lanka’s president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has been <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30738671">defeated</a> in the country’s historic presidential elections. Sri Lankans are shocked at the scale and manner of Rajapaksa’s defeat, which has brought his tenure to an abrupt halt after nine highly controversial years. </p>
<p>When Rajapaksa called the election nearly two years <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-20/rajapaksa-to-call-early-sri-lanka-election-as-popularity-falls.html">early</a>, he did so with the expectation that he would win comfortably. While he was concerned that support for his ruling coalition was rapidly waning, he took comfort in the knowledge that the opposition United National Party (UNP) remained divided, and seemed incapable of fielding a candidate who could rival the president’s appeal to the Sinahala majority. </p>
<p>Until the night of January 8, few were confident of an opposition victory. That was reflected in the prematurely printed headlines of daily newspapers: the January 9 edition of the state-owned English-language newspaper, The Daily News, boldly <a href="http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=editorial/forward-here">pronounced</a> that “there is hardly any doubt about the fact that the incumbent … is almost guaranteed a comfortable victory.”</p>
<p>Rajapaksa’s personal popularity has declined steadily in recent years due to growing concerns about corruption and nepotism, mounting frustration and alienation from minority groups, and a failure to address everyday economic issues such as the high cost of living. His reign saw the defeat of the <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/focus/2008/11/2008112019115851343.html">Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam</a> (LTTE) rebels in 2009, and impressive post-war economic growth rates. </p>
<p>But it was also marked by a growing concentration of power in the hands of the president and his close family members and the undermining of Sri Lanka’s democratic institutions. </p>
<h2>Another way</h2>
<p>The pivotal moment in the election came when Maithripala Sirisena, Rajapaksa’s health minister, put himself forward to stand as the common opposition candidate in November, giving the president’s opponents an unexpected boost. </p>
<p>The now-victorious Sirisena appeals to the same core nationalist voters as Rajapaksa, but he was also able to draw support from a grand coalition united by opposition to the Rajapaksa regime. </p>
<p>Sirisena was backed by parties and prominent figures spanning the political spectrum, including Chandrika Kumaratunga, a former president, the UNP, several smaller parties (including the hardline Buddhist JHU), and leaders from the Tamil and Muslim minorities. His campaign was also accompanied by a series of crossovers from government ministers and MPs.</p>
<h2>Reversing the slide</h2>
<p>On the face of it, the election marks a major turning point in Sri Lanka’s political history. This is the first time an incumbent president has been defeated at the polls and had Rajapaksa won as expected, he would have become Sri Lanka’s first three-term president. He abolished <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/16992141">the two-term limit in 2010</a> and took control of the constitutional council, which had independent responsibility for making key appointments in the civil service and government commissions. His presidency also saw widespread suppression of government critics, human rights violations, and the erosion of the judiciary’s independence. </p>
<p>Sirisena said he was unable to stand with a leader who had plundered the country, government, and national wealth, and he stood on a promise to reverse the slide towards authoritarianism by abolishing the executive presidency and restoring constitutional checks on the president’s power. </p>
<p>Although the campaign was not free from violence – a local monitoring body, the <a href="http://cmev.org/">Centre for Monitoring Election Violence</a> (CMEV), documented a total of 420 incidents of the course of the campaign – fears of an escalation on polling day proved unfounded. Similarly, predictions that the president might use the state machinery to deliver a fraudulent result also turned out to be wide of the mark. </p>
<p>The scale of the swing towards Sirisena seems to have ruled out any major foul play and convinced Rajapaksa that a dignified retreat from power was the most judicious option.</p>
<h2>Trouble ahead</h2>
<p>While many in Sri Lanka are rejoicing at Sirisena’s victory, major difficulties lie ahead. The new president will quickly embark on an ambitious 100-day reform agenda which plans to conclude with the dissolution of parliament in April. He will also face the huge challenge of holding together his unwieldy coalition for long enough to push through ambitious constitutional reforms. If and when a new parliamentary system is introduced, these problems will only intensify. </p>
<p>Sirisena’s allies remain sharply divided on a range of issues, not least those that continue to face the minority Tamil and Muslim communities. The new president has neglected minority demands in the campaign, ruling out any further devolution to Tamil and Muslim-majority provinces and vowing to prevent any international investigation into alleged <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/08/world/asia/un-rights-chief-says-sri-lanka-is-obstructing-war-crimes-inquiry.html?_r=0">war crimes</a> committed by leading government figures during the final stages of the civil war in 2009, which <a href="http://world.time.com/2013/11/28/sri-lanka-to-start-tally-of-civil-war-dead/">cost the lives of tens of thousands</a> – especially in its bloody final phase, when Sirisena himself was acting defence minister.</p>
<p>The Tamil National Alliance, the leading Tamil party, reluctantly backed Sirisena in the hopes of opening political space, resisting Rajapaksa’s call for them to side with “the known devil”. While the focus of the election has been on the future of the Rajapaksa regime, other core issues such as the long-term economic challenges facing the country have been largely neglected.</p>
<p>There are high hopes that his departure will kick-start a revival of Sri Lanka’s long-standing democratic traditions, but the chances of renewed political instability and uncertainty remain high.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35971/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Walton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sri Lanka’s president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has been defeated in the country’s historic presidential elections. Sri Lankans are shocked at the scale and manner of Rajapaksa’s defeat, which has brought his…Oliver Walton, Lecturer in International Development, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/196752013-11-01T15:05:15Z2013-11-01T15:05:15ZIn Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka, repression is a family affair<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34250/original/tv2432j7-1383314147.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The defeat of the Tamil Tigers left many thousands dead amid allegations of war crimes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">PA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When delegates assemble in Colombo later this month for the Commonwealth Heads of Government (CHOGM), much of the talk at the summit will be of “moving forward” and of “reconciliation”. The government will highlight evidence of reconstruction in the war-torn north of the county.</p>
<p>But two big questions will be studiously avoided at diplomatic receptions. Nobody will want to talk about the tens of thousands of civilians that the army <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13158916">is alleged to have killed</a> in the final days of war in 2009. And the government’s continuing assault on Sri Lanka’s democratic freedoms will go largely unremarked. </p>
<p>Sri Lanka has won the war against the Tamil Tigers, but runs the risk of sliding into authoritarian rule. </p>
<p>Sri Lanka is one of the <a href="http://www.commonwealthgovernance.org/countries/asia/sri_lanka/">oldest democracies in the Commonwealth</a>, with an unbroken record of regular elections dating back to 1931. Its democratic tradition, buttressed by a largely independent judiciary and a lively press, survived a 30-year war with the <a href="http://www.eelam.com/ltte">Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)</a>. But since the coming to power of the current president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, in 2005, pressure on journalists, political opponents, and independent judges has become intense. </p>
<p>Rajapaksa heads the biggest government in the world, with more than 100 ministers and deputy ministers in office. In reality, this is simply a vast network of patronage and control – politicians only thrive if they are inside this ruling club. The real government is much smaller, concentrated around three Rajapaksa brothers, who manage nearly 50% of the state budget between them. </p>
<h2>Jobs for the boys</h2>
<p>The president’s brother, Gotabhaya, who survived an LTTE terrorist attack in 2006, presides over the powerful defence ministry. Another brother, Basil, is effectively in charge of the economy, as minister for economic development. Just to round things off, elder brother Chamal holds the post of parliamentary speaker, while Mahinda’s son is also a member of parliament.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34249/original/b2b88cmx-1383314040.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34249/original/b2b88cmx-1383314040.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34249/original/b2b88cmx-1383314040.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34249/original/b2b88cmx-1383314040.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34249/original/b2b88cmx-1383314040.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34249/original/b2b88cmx-1383314040.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34249/original/b2b88cmx-1383314040.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34249/original/b2b88cmx-1383314040.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brothers in arms: l-r: Basil, Chamal and Gotabhaya Rajapaksa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Serious challenges to this emerging dynasty have not been tolerated. Former army chief Sarath Fonseka, a one-time ally of the president, ran against him in the 2010 elections, but ended up <a href="http://www.deccanherald.com/content/251138/fonseka-walks-free-calls-himself.html">spending two years in prison</a> on politically-motivated charges. </p>
<p>Checks and balances on the government have gradually been dismantled. The judiciary has lost much of its independence. The <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/16992141">18th amendment to the Constitution</a> – ratified in 2010 – abolished an independent judicial appointments body and instead gave those powers to the president. In a final blow to the judiciary, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-21002642">parliament impeached</a> an independent-minded chief justice in January 2013, after she presided over a judicial decision that went against the government.</p>
<p>The independent press has also been cowed. <a href="http://www.cpj.org/asia/sri-lanka/">Since 2005 at least a dozen journalists have been killed</a>; others have disappeared or fled into exile. There has been no progress in finding the killers of Sunday Leader editor <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/2009/01/letter-from-the.html">Lasantha Wickrematunga</a>, shot dead in 2009 after writing a letter to be published in his newspaper predicting his own death. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34236/original/zxnydzmz-1383312351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34236/original/zxnydzmz-1383312351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34236/original/zxnydzmz-1383312351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34236/original/zxnydzmz-1383312351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34236/original/zxnydzmz-1383312351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34236/original/zxnydzmz-1383312351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34236/original/zxnydzmz-1383312351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34236/original/zxnydzmz-1383312351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lasantha Wickrematunge: wrote of his own murder.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sunalie Ratnayake</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>His successor as editor, Frederica Jansz, also faced death threats and was sacked in 2012 after pro-government business interests bought the newspaper. Journalists on Tamil newspapers are particularly vulnerable. The Jaffna-based Uthayan has been a frequent target. In April 2013 arsonists set fire to its presses; its journalists frequently face beatings, harassment and worse; five have been killed since 2002.</p>
<h2>Tamil unrest</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, the government has not offered any serious political solution to Sri Lanka’s embattled Tamil minority, who have exchanged the brutality of LTTE rule for the uncertainties of life under the Sri Lankan military. But one source of optimism is the e<a href="http://thecommonwealth.org/media/press-release/commonwealth-issues-final-report-sri-lanka%E2%80%99s-northern-provincial-elections">lection held to the Northern Provincial Council</a> in September 2013. The nationalist Tamil National Alliance thoroughly trounced pro-government parties, winning nearly 80 per cent of the vote.</p>
<p>Moderate members of the government hope that channelling Tamil demands through the political process in this way will prevent any resurgence of armed insurgency or terrorism. Tamil activists hope that the election will help to resurrect Tamil demands for some measure of self-determination. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34241/original/xpys5dcy-1383312485.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34241/original/xpys5dcy-1383312485.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34241/original/xpys5dcy-1383312485.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34241/original/xpys5dcy-1383312485.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34241/original/xpys5dcy-1383312485.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34241/original/xpys5dcy-1383312485.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34241/original/xpys5dcy-1383312485.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34241/original/xpys5dcy-1383312485.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tamil unrest has spilled over to India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tsering Topgyal/AP/Press Association Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But at present the whole of the Northern Province is effectively under military rule. The provincial council is unlikely to gain crucial powers over policing and land rights. It runs the danger of becoming a largely virtual body, while government funding and military power bypass local government. </p>
<p>The Rajapaksas have understood the lessons of modern authoritarianism: control of finance, the judiciary, the police, and the media are more important than winning every local election. But it is hard to envisage a peaceful future for the island unless this democratic experiment in the north can be made to work. And that means boosting constitutional governance not only in the north, but throughout the island, with a free press, an independent judiciary and a strong political opposition holding the government to account. </p>
<p>The decision to hold CHOGM in Colombo was wrong-headed and counterproductive. The Commonwealth’s credibility as an upholder of human rights has been badly damaged. Calls to boycott the event have been heeded only by <a href="http://www.pm.gc.ca/eng/news/2013/10/07/statement-prime-minister-canada">Canadian prime minister Steven Harper</a>. The least that delegates such as David Cameron can do is to highlight publicly the dangers that Sri Lanka’s creeping authoritarianism poses to the country’s future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19675/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lewis worked for the International Crisis Group in Sri Lanka in 2006-07.</span></em></p>When delegates assemble in Colombo later this month for the Commonwealth Heads of Government (CHOGM), much of the talk at the summit will be of “moving forward” and of “reconciliation”. The government…David Lewis, Senior Lecturer, Politics, University of ExeterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.