tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/scottish-labour-13790/articlesScottish Labour – The Conversation2023-09-29T12:54:25Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145922023-09-29T12:54:25Z2023-09-29T12:54:25ZLabour set to win Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection – but only a thumping majority will herald big Scottish gains next year<p>More than three years after the COVID law-breaking that cost the SNP’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65671806">Margaret Ferrier</a> her job as MP, voters in Rutherglen and Hamilton West will be summoned to the polls on October 5 for a byelection to choose her successor. Why is Labour’s Michael Shanks very widely expected to win? And what would a Labour gain here mean?</p>
<p>The first thing to say is that this is one of Scotland’s friendlier seats for Labour. Since the independence referendum in 2014, the party has been frozen out of 52 of Scotland’s 59 constituencies, including many of its former strongholds in Glasgow and the central belt. Rutherglen is one of the few seats that it has won in that period – <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rutherglen_and_Hamilton_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s">albeit just once and very narrowly</a>, during the SNP’s dip in 2017. Clearly the party can win there, given a little bit of national tailwind.</p>
<p>How favourable are those winds these days? The <a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Internal_VI_Scotland_September2023_W.pdf">most recent Scotland-wide poll</a> gives the SNP almost the same lead over Labour (38% to 27%) as it had in that 2017 general election (37% to 27%). But the poll before had the parties tied on 35%, and generally the SNP lead has been well down in single digits for months, so the <a href="https://pollingreport.uk/articles/snp-extend-lead-by-7-points-casting-doubt-on-labours-rutherglen-lead">national picture points to a Labour gain</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, national polling can be an unreliable guide to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17457289.2023.2169446">byelections</a>, which typically have much lower turnout and often see outbreaks of tactical or protest voting. What is happening or what has happened locally is also far more important in a byelection than a general election, when voters always have one eye on the national picture. </p>
<p>What should make Labour so well fancied in Rutherglen is that most of these things point in its favour, too.</p>
<p>Since the SNP supplanted Labour as the most popular party among <a href="https://www.royalholloway.ac.uk/about-us/news/low-income-voters-in-scotland/">working-class Scots</a>, it also supplanted Labour as the party that suffers more from low turnout. That victory in Rutherglen camp; Hamilton West in 2017 was owed not to Labour gains, but a <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-scottish-labour-shouldnt-fear-an-snp-resurgence/">collapse in the SNP vote driven largely by abstention</a>. The unionist vote in Scotland looks more reliable; it is the <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18101471.general-election-2019-turnout-won-snp/">nationalist vote that waxes and wanes</a>, along with enthusiasm about independence.</p>
<h2>SNP struggles</h2>
<p>Insofar as this byelection is to be a protest vote, Labour looks well placed, being in opposition at both Westminster and Holyrood and being the challenger party in this seat. Anger has probably subsided since Ferrier was first found to have travelled from London to Scotland by train despite knowingly having COVID in September 2020, but the circumstances that led to the byelection can hardly help her successor in the yellow rosette, Katy Loudon. More recently, of course, a <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/arrests-a-luxury-motorhome-and-a-power-couples-fall-the-inside-story-of-snp-police-probe-12877182">motorhome</a> rolled over SNP hopes of presenting themselves as an outsider or anti-establishment protest option.</p>
<p>On the tactical front, there remains a problem for Labour in this and many Scottish seats. The unionist vote is split while the SNP tends to monopolise the pro-independence vote. However, while Alex Salmond’s Alba Party is <a href="https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/08/my-verdict-on-albas-decision-to-sit-out.html">standing aside</a>, the Scottish Greens are contesting the seat for the first time and, while this is hardly a Green hotspot (one of many points made in the <a href="https://ballotbox.scot/preview-rhw/">excellent Ballot Box Scotland preview</a> of this byelection), even a couple of percentage points off the SNP vote would make an unlikely victory even harder.</p>
<p>There is also plenty of scope for Labour, unambiguously the challenger here, to gain from a further tactical squeeze on the anti-independence side. Scottish Conservative voters have a recent record of swinging behind Labour and even the party’s politicians have <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23709145.tories-urge-people-rutherglen-not-vote-tactically-by-election/">wavered in their condemnation of the idea</a>.</p>
<p>All of this means that Labour is rightly the warm favourite and so, whatever the various parties’ spinners say following the result, a Labour gain would not signal much new. If Keir Starmer’s majority depends on winning a lot of Scottish seats, he will need to harvest higher-hanging fruit than Rutherglen (as the seat is to be renamed after the boundary changes). A thumping Labour win would hint at such gains, however.</p>
<p>In particular, it would signal that currently the key swing voters in Scotland – that is, those on the left torn between expressing their support for independence and kicking the Tories out – are giving a higher priority to the latter. This is a precondition for Labour progress in Scotland.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214592/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Johns is part of the team conducting the Scottish Election Study, a project funded by the Economic & Social Research Council.</span></em></p>The SNP are set to lose a seat in a vote triggered by a COVID scandal. But this is not one of their safer seats at the best of times.Rob Johns, Professor of Politics, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1853312022-06-22T13:22:16Z2022-06-22T13:22:16ZWhy the ‘social democratic’ SNP needs some fresh thinking after 15 years in power<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470280/original/file-20220622-12-1pdqb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C8%2C5447%2C3628&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/glasgow-uk-october-9-2018-scottish-1202335303">Terry Murden/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite growing evidence of <a href="https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,nicola-sturgeon-popularity-ratings-drop-by-nearly-40-points-with-scottish-voters">disquiet</a> and even <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/scotland/2021/11/is-the-snp-facing-a-winter-of-discontent">discontent</a> with the current Scottish government, the ruling Scottish Nationalist Party retains what many believe is an <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61358666">unassailable position of dominance</a> after the local elections of May 2022.</p>
<p>There is no doubt that the opposition is still a long way behind, but the cracks are starting to appear in the notion that Scotland is a <em>de facto</em> “<a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/scottish-independence-one-party-state-scotland-needs-to-find-a-resolution-to-its-perennial-problem-alastair-stewart-3686050">one party state</a>” under the SNP. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/15/nicola-sturgeon-second-scottish-independence-referendum-october-2023">announcement</a> of the intention to hold a further referendum on independence in October 2023 is likely to crystallise these tensions further.</p>
<p>For the radical left to make headway in these new times, fresh thinking is needed. This is high unlikely to come from <a href="https://scottishlabour.org.uk/">Scottish Labour</a> as it continues to tread the path taken by previous Scottish Labour party leaders – which lost the party its position as the official opposition to the SNP government in 2016. It appears <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/34ec43b9-5dcd-46cd-b284-093e8f13714d">“Blairism” has made a return</a> south of the border with Keir Starmer, and Scottish Labour has its own version of Starmer in the form of <a href="https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/anas-sarwar-praises-tony-blair-25904525">Anas Sarwar</a>.</p>
<p>North Ayrshire council, a pioneer of <a href="https://tribunemag.co.uk/2021/02/scotlands-red-council">community wealth-building</a> as a form of local “municipal socialism”, was considered Scottish Labour’s one bright light – but the party <a href="https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/ayrshire/yjk-26922985">lost control of the council</a> on May 5022. And, as the Scottish Greens appear <a href="https://tribunemag.co.uk/2022/04/scottish-green-party-snp-climate-crisis">increasingly compromised</a> by participating in government with the SNP, this fresh thinking is unlikely to come from them either.</p>
<p>The independent radical left in the form of the <a href="https://scottishsocialistparty.org/">Scottish Socialist Party</a> has failed to resuscitate itself after making initial headway in 2003 when it gained six MSPs and promoted ideas such as free school meals, free public transport and free prescriptions.</p>
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<h2>What is social democracy?</h2>
<p>The revitalised ideas and ideals of <a href="https://www.rep.routledge.com/articles/thematic/social-democracy/v-1">social democracy</a> are critical to being able make headway for the left. Crucially, this means being able to recognise what is and is not social democratic.</p>
<p>Until the mid-1990s, politics in Scotland was dominated by Labour which was then still a largely social democratic party. Social democracy is the belief in using state intervention in the economy to make capitalism’s outcomes fairer for the many. Actually applying it once in government can sometimes be problematical if there is opposition from business and the media.</p>
<p>Labour, north and south of the border, moved away from this belief, as Margaret Thatcher recognised. When asked in 2002 what her <a href="https://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/04/making-history.html">greatest achievement</a> was, she said: “Tony Blair and new Labour. We forced our opponents to change their minds.”</p>
<p>The SNP’s edge became the portrayal of itself as the last bastion of social democracy in Scotland – so-called “old Labour” territory – and a bulwark against this move to the right. The SNP’s <a href="https://www.snp.org/">website</a> states it is “centre left and social democratic”.</p>
<p>But the SNP – in government since 2007 in Scotland – has had its own conversion on the road to Damascus, in that its ideology is best now described as social liberal and not social democratic. This is most obviously indicated by its vision of an independent capitalist Scotland set out in its 2018 <a href="https://www.sustainablegrowthcommission.scot/report">Sustainable Growth Commission report</a>.</p>
<p>This position was not fundamentally changed by the publication in June 2022 of its <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/independence-modern-world-wealthier-happier-fairer-not-scotland/">new prospectus</a> called Independence in the Modern World: Wealthier, Happier, Fairer – Why Not Scotland?</p>
<p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-923X.2007.00828.x">Social liberalism</a> is based upon trying to create a successful capitalist market economy in order to raise the taxes to pay for a limited welfare state. Interference in the market is not tolerated because it is believed this might make capitalism less efficient or deter private investment and, either way, raise less tax for welfare expenditure.</p>
<p>This social liberalism is, of course, different from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/apr/15/neoliberalism-ideology-problem-george-monbiot">neoliberalism</a> which seeks to deregulate the market even further and introduce it into areas where it did not previously exist via state action – in the social care sector, for example. It is this distinction between social liberalism and neoliberalism which still allows the SNP to portray itself as left-leaning, especially when compared to its two main political opponents, Scottish Labour and the <a href="https://www.scottishconservatives.com/">Scottish Conservatives</a>.</p>
<h2>Changing inequalities</h2>
<p>Social democracy of old got itself somewhat of a bad name when it became associated in the 1970s with run-down public services and state-owned industries. They were increasingly starved of the resources needed to make themselves successful and effective for servicing the wider interests of the populace. British Rail was one such example.</p>
<p>But this social democracy was also of the redistributive kind. Fresh thinking suggests it should be of the “pre-distributive” kind. Redistributive social democracy is a case of trying to alter the unequal effects of capitalism after the fact, through the likes of welfare benefits like unemployment or housing benefit. By contrast, pre-distributive social democracy seeks to alter the processes by which capitalism operates so that the unfair effects are far less likely to occur in the first place. </p>
<p>Examples are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/30/minimum-wage-maximum-wage-income-inequality">maximum wages</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/07/basic-income-royal-family-living-wage-economy">universal or citizen’s basic income</a> and <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/04/we-need-price-controls-to-fight-the-living-standards-crisis">price controls on food, fuel and rent</a> as well as <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-default-union-membership-could-help-reduce-income-inequality-110021">helping create stronger unions</a> by creating a union default system so that unions can more effectively represent their members’ interests. </p>
<p>Pre-distributive social democracy is more radical. While not socialism, which would see the abolition of the market and capitalism, it does attempt to deal with the problems of inequality at their root. Pre-distribution was an idea that Labour leader <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/sep/12/ed-miliband-predistribution">Ed Miliband toyed with</a> a decade ago – albeit briefly and superficially.</p>
<p>It is this kind of vision that the left – whether in the SNP, Labour, Greens or outside them – must articulate if wants to appeal to the interests of the bulk of the population in Scotland, and on this basis build the political forces for radical social and economic change. </p>
<p>This means that the debate about independence versus enhanced devolution is a rather misleading one unless either or both sides of the pro or anti parties are prepared to promote pre-distribution. These ideas are explored in a <a href="https://www.plutobooks.com/9780745345062/a-new-scotland/">new book</a> published by the <a href="https://reidfoundation.scot/">Jimmy Reid Foundation</a> called A New Scotland: Building an Equal, Fair and Sustainable Society.</p>
<p>Independence or enhanced devolution which is not based upon pre-distribution will be another false dawn for Scottish people. It will simply repeat the flaws of the <a href="https://reidfoundation.scot/the-scottish-question-revisited-pamphlet/">1999 devolution settlement</a>, which was based on the idea of the Scottish parliament acting as a shield against the unjust inequalities produced by neoliberalism without intervening in the processes of the market.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregor Gall is editor of the Scottish Left Review and director of the Jimmy Reid Foundation.</span></em></p>The party of government in Scotland has strayed from its ‘social democratic’ vision and desperately needs a new approach to solving inequalities across society.Gregor Gall, Visiting Scholar, School of Law, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1598582021-04-29T12:42:04Z2021-04-29T12:42:04Z‘Brexit has changed people’s minds on independence’: Q&A with Kezia Dugdale, former Scottish Labour leader<p><em>Scotland is going to the polls on May 6 for what promises to be a landmark national election. It’s the first since the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland/results">Brexit referendum</a> in June 2016, which led to Scotland (and Northern Ireland) leaving the EU against its will.</em> </p>
<p><em>Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has long said this is a “<a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-right-choose-putting-scotlands-future-scotlands-hands/pages/7/">material change</a>” in the nation’s circumstances that justifies a second referendum on Scottish independence. Support for independence has been much improved ever since. Sturgeon is now using the May election to seek a mandate for a second referendum.</em> </p>
<p><em>To help understand the machinations, we caught up with Kezia Dugdale for our podcast <a href="https://theconversation.com/scotland-why-independence-is-central-to-may-election-campaign-podcast-159883">The Conversation Weekly</a>. She is the director of the John Smith Centre at the University of Glasgow and a lecturer in public policy. She was Scottish Labour leader between 2015 and 2017. Here are some edited extracts from the conservation.</em></p>
<p><strong>Q: Can you explain what’s at stake on May 6?</strong></p>
<p>The No side won the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">2014 referendum</a> with 55% of the vote, and we thought that that would be the end of the constitutional question. But because it was relatively close, questions around the devolution settlement and Scotland’s continued place in the UK have continued to dominate. Whether you are Yes or No to independence is still the biggest factor over how you will vote in May. </p>
<p>Labour people get very uncomfortable with such a binary dynamic. People in the party don’t define themselves as either nationalists or unionists so much as social democrats or democratic socialists. Some might support independence; some might support the United Kingdom. Some like me support a federal solution, with a lot more devolution across the four nations of the UK, but retaining a UK-wide network to redistribute power and wealth. That’s quite different to a unionism that is much more about queen and country, a flag-waving British nationalism. </p>
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<p><em>Listen to Kezia Dugdale’s interview in <a href="https://theconversation.com/scotland-why-may-election-is-crucial-for-independence-movement-and-the-uk-podcast-159883">The Conversation Weekly podcast</a>.</em></p>
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<p><strong>Q: Does that division over unionism prevent an electoral coalition between the unionist parties?</strong></p>
<p>A little bit. You have to remember that there were some odd bedfellows in the 2014 referendum. In the context of British politics, the Labour and Conservative parties are arch enemies. For them both to be on the same side of an argument was very unusual. </p>
<p>After the referendum, Labour voters felt guilty about voting for the union. They had thought it was right, but it wasn’t comfortable. They didn’t like their party working with the Conservatives. The SNP exploited this, to their credit, saying, this is supposed to be the progressive Labour party, and they sided with the Conservatives to sustain the status quo.</p>
<p>It was a very potent political message. Labour has been burned very badly from winning the referendum. And let’s remember it was Labour’s ability to persuade left-of-centre voters to vote No that took the campaign over the 50% line. </p>
<p>To put it in context, I was the party’s education spokesperson in 2014. In the immediate aftermath of the referendum, we lost our leader (Johann Lamont). Then we lost another leader (Jim Murphy), in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32635871">2015 UK election</a>, because he lost his seat. The day before that election, Labour had 41 members of parliament. The day after, it had one. I was deputy leader in that election, and everybody sort of turned and looked at me. It was my turn to take over the mantle, which I did. </p>
<p>In the 2016 Scottish parliament election, when I was leader, we lost a third of our seats. Not quite the damage of 2015, but not vastly better. And in the 2017 UK election – I’m still leader at this point – we started to make up some ground. We went from one MP to seven, but interestingly, the seats we won were seats with very heavy No votes in 2014. You could look at a seat in Scotland, find out the referendum result, and take a pretty good guess about who would win there in the UK election. </p>
<p>In that election in 2017, there were another 20 seats where the majority fell for the SNP MP from tens of thousands of votes to under 1,000. Come the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/scotland">2019 general election</a>, with so many close-run seats, everybody expected to see the SNP lose substantially again, but Labour fell from seven seats back to one. I was long gone by this point, but we’re talking about six or seven years of Labour being punished for its role in the 2014 referendum. </p>
<p>Labour was also punished by the Conservatives, who were ruthless at saying you can’t trust Labour with the union; they’re not as strong as we are; not as trustworthy. They suggested I was soft on the union because I favour a federalist solution. So the Conservatives kept on attacking Labour. The SNP were attacking Labour saying they’ve sold you out. And that in many ways is why Labour is the shell of what it once was: bear in mind it was the dominant force in Scotland for most of the latter half of the 20th century.</p>
<p>In the current election campaign the Conservatives’ main message is vote for us to stop a second independence referendum. They’re also challenging the Labour party to form a unionist alliance. That’s a win-win for them. They know an alliance is never going to happen, and it reminds everybody who might be thinking of voting Labour that they sided with the Conservatives in 2014.</p>
<p><strong>Q: The Scottish parliamentary system was designed to make it harder for one party to get the majority, but now the whole focus of this election is the majority. Why?</strong></p>
<p>We have 129 members of the Scottish parliament, 73 of which represent constituencies. The remaining 56 seats are made up of eight regions which each elect seven MSPs (members of the Scottish parliament) proportionately, using our formula called the <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/19209143.everything-wanted-know-dhondt-voting-system-holyrood-election/">D'Hondt system</a>. </p>
<p>This combination of first past the post and proportional representation means we’ve had a more colourful parliament than in the UK. We have Green politicians because they come in via the list, for example. This system is designed to produce coalitions and to stop outright majorities. It did that until 2011, when the SNP managed to break the system with the force of their popularity and win a majority (in 2016, the party fell short of a majority). </p>
<p>We’re now in the situation where people think 2011 can be recreated, which is actually quite unfair on the SNP. The polls show the SNP constituency vote <a href="https://ballotbox.scot/">at around 50%</a> – phenomenally high after 14 years in power. They will, I think, fall short of an overall majority, but will have a majority for independence if the Green vote delivers what it looks like delivering. </p>
<p><strong>Q: Can you explain the Alba party?</strong></p>
<p>Alex Salmond (the former first minister) has broken away from the SNP and set up Alba. He has taken a number of people with him who would be described as fundamental nationalists: people who want an independence referendum yesterday, definitely today, and not in two years’ time. They’re also very against some of the more socially liberal policies that the SNP have advocated under Sturgeon.</p>
<p>Salmond is asking people to vote SNP in their constituency vote and to vote for Alba on the list. His <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4485248f-bf6a-401e-8824-807e3b2010f2">argument</a> is that if you vote Alba, we could get a “super-majority” situation where two-thirds of MSPs are supporters of independence. It would then be impossible for the UK government to refuse a second referendum, is how the argument goes.</p>
<p>A problem for Salmond, and he has many, is that he will have to get somewhere between 6% and 8% of the list vote in every region to return members of the Scottish parliament in each. But the polls show that Alba is <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56889344">barely scraping 3%</a>. </p>
<p>It’s likely that he will manage to get to 6% in the north-east of Scotland. He has represented both the Banff & Buchan and Gordon constituencies in that region. He’s very well known and popular there. That would elect him to the Scottish parliament, but in my view there will be nobody else with him. That’s not a super majority. </p>
<p><strong>Q: What has led to the shift in independence support and do you think Yes would actually win a second referendum?</strong></p>
<p>Since January 2020 (at the time of the interview) there have been <a href="https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/?removed">25 opinion polls</a> on the constitutional question. 22 have shown Yes ahead, which is very new. I think there were only two polls in the run-up to 2014 that had Yes ahead. There have been two recent exceptions where No has started to climb again, and people suggest that might be to do with the success of the vaccine roll-out across the UK. But the reason for people moving from No to Yes is quite well evidenced and it’s to do with Brexit. </p>
<p>I was closely involved in the polling in the 2014 referendum. The targeting that we did broke Scotland down into five different categories of voters, with undecideds being a big wedge in the middle. That’s about 1 million Scots that we considered could be persuaded one way or the other, and both the Yes and No campaigns heavily focused on them. </p>
<p>When you looked at who they were and what they cared about, it boiled down to economic security. This is why so much of the No campaign focused on arguments around what the currency in an independent Scotland would be, who the lender of last resort would be, who would underpin pensions – all these big economic questions. </p>
<p>Those same people are up in the air just now, who could fall either way, but what’s changed since 2014? These are people aged 25 to 45 who tend to live in urban centres like Edinburgh, Glasgow or along the central belt. They are educated to university degree level mostly. </p>
<p>They are socially centre-left but economically centrist or centre right. By that I mean they are supporters of gay marriage but don’t want high taxes. They are passionately, proudly pro-European and all voted Remain. And they’re very angry about leaving the EU. </p>
<p>If presented with a binary choice of an independent Scotland in Europe with a progressive leader or staying in the UK led by Boris Johnson with a little-Britain Brexit mindset, they’re choosing the progressive independent Scotland in Europe. </p>
<p>They might not like it. They certainly don’t love it. But it’s better than what they’ve got. In short, Brexit has changed people’s minds.</p>
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<img alt="Protester holding up sign that says 'Scotland voted remain'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397561/original/file-20210428-17-1y8vlgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Brexit: 62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU at the 2016 EU referendum.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-united-kingdom-23rd-june-2018-1119225317">Ben Gingell/via Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Q: If there’s a pro-independence majority, what are the options available to Nicola Sturgeon to hold a second referendum?</strong></p>
<p>She has zero options because she’s ruled out UDI (universal declaration of independence). I think she’s right to rule that out. The constitution is reserved to the UK parliament, so only the UK parliament can say yes to having a second referendum.</p>
<p>This all boils down to mandates and morality. If there’s a majority for independence, you would expect the UK government, as in 2011, to say yes to a referendum. But if there’s a majority for independence in the election, you will see the SNP demand the right to hold a referendum, and Boris Johnson will I think say no very quickly. The question is how long that no will hold for and the arguments that underpin it. </p>
<p>The first thing they’ll say is, not during a pandemic. They also might say, not now not ever, you said once in a generation. That’s a riskier strategy. And there’s a growing school of thought that if the majority is big, if independence or a second referendum feels inevitable, it’s in the UK government’s interests to go now rather than delay for a long period.</p>
<p>The UK government is currently spending a lot because of the pandemic. We’ve got one of the most right-wing chancellors in my lifetime and he’s spending like a left-wing socialist. So there’s lots of money coming to Scotland and lots of means by which you can demonstrate the value of the UK to Scotland. </p>
<p>In 18 months’ time, that spending has to stop. The UK government will then have to decide what taxes go up and what public sector saving decisions or cuts have to be made to balance the books. The longer you wait to hold a second referendum, the less advantageous the circumstances for the UK government.</p>
<p><strong>Q: How do you think everything will play out?</strong></p>
<p>There’ll be a lot of Punch and Judy-style back and forth. Every time the UK government says no, it will work in the SNP’s favour because it reaffirms everything they tell the electorate about the UK government not observing the will of the people of Scotland. Bear in mind that message has been hammered home consistently since the EU referendum. </p>
<p>Westminster considers itself a protector of the union and Boris Johnson describes himself as the minister for the union, but it never seems to amount to very much. In the past 12 months we’ve had the UK government announce a massive decentralisation around UK government departments, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-56380128">including to Scotland</a>. Equally it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/27/no-10-reportedly-wanted-union-flag-on-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-kits">has suggested</a> putting Union Jacks on vaccine vials to remind people that it’s the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine saving people right now.</p>
<p>But these are superficial arguments for the union. I’ve always said that to save the union, you need an argument of the head and an argument of the heart. The No campaign is very good with arguments of the head. They’ll point to Scotland’s balance sheet and falling oil revenues and the fact that Scotland benefits greatly from public spending redistributing wealth generated largely in London and the south east. </p>
<p>A problem with federalism is that there isn’t one clear definition of what a federalist Britain would look like. There will be different answers in different parts of the country. Also, to what degree would you devolve further powers? Many would argue that the benefit of the UK is the ability to share the same tax system to redistribute wealth, and a UK-wide social security system to spend the receipts of that taxation. </p>
<p>Other people will say federalism should allow you to have localised social security and localised income tax-raising powers, and that’s perfectly legitimate. But it would decrease the strength of my argument as to why the union is a good thing. So there’s no one common thread.</p>
<p><strong>Q: To what extent are Catalonia and Quebec useful comparisons?</strong></p>
<p>I don’t profess to be an expert on Catalonia. But the comparisons aren’t particularly strong because Catalonia is considered an area of substantial wealth and is a net contributor to Spain’s wider economy. Unionists in the UK will argue the reverse is the case with Scotland – especially with the oil price a fraction of what the <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-future/">2013 white paper</a> for Scottish independence was based on. </p>
<p>There’s a huge gap in the economics of Scottish independence, which leads a lot of people to say Scotland’s too wee, too poor, too stupid to be independent. As I understand the arguments in Catalonia, it’s the reverse. </p>
<p>I went to Quebec about two years ago. The province had two independence referendums in succession and then <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/30/terrebonne-hold-out-of-quebec-separatism-faces-end-of-the-dream">just seemed</a> to have had enough. The big changing factor was that after the second referendum, the nationalist parties started losing really heavily. </p>
<p>People assume, I think a bit lazily, that if there were a second independence referendum in Scotland and the No campaign won again that somehow support for nationalism would also fall through the floor. I’m not wholly convinced.</p>
<p><strong>Q: What’s the tenor of the debate in this Scottish election and how does it feel to be watching rather than taking part?</strong></p>
<p>I’m thoroughly enjoying it to be honest. Five years ago I was the one in the TV debates and running around the country doing photo calls. Now I’m an academic and I get to muse on it at leisure. </p>
<p>It doesn’t feel like the campaign has been set alight yet. I’m actually worried about turnout. I don’t think there’s huge awareness that the elections are taking place, because of the pandemic and the degree to which COVID is monopolising the news. </p>
<p>This also means the tenor is not as toxic and acrimonious as recent electoral contests in Scotland. I think it’s likely to stay that way, and something spectacular would have to happen in the next ten days for the SNP not to win. The constitution and COVID are the dominant issues. COVID is largely about competence and that works largely to Nicola Sturgeon’s credit. </p>
<p>The one sore point for her and her record is social care and elderly people being discharged from hospitals into care homes during the pandemic without being tested. That scandal doesn’t look like hurting her just yet. But she’s committed to a public inquiry into decisions she took during the pandemic, so that will be a very difficult issue for her in 12 months or so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159858/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kezia Dugdale is affiliated with the John Smith Centre which exists to make the positive case for politics and public service.</span></em></p>Ahead of the Scottish election on May 6, the former Scottish Labour leader explains what’s at stake – and what could happen next.Kezia Dugdale, Director, John Smith Centre, Senior Lecturer, School of Social & Political Sciences, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1270472019-11-14T15:31:27Z2019-11-14T15:31:27ZJeremy Corbyn’s apparent hardline on indyref2 may make Labour prospects in Scotland even worse<p>The issue of Scottish independence continues to tie the Labour party in knots. Jeremy Corbyn’s pronouncements during a visit to Glasgow are the latest example of Labour’s difficulties in maintaining its traditional role as the party of Scotland’s working classes and liberal intelligentsia – particularly since the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">2014 independence referendum</a>. </p>
<p>Asked about a second referendum, the Labour leader <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50397033">initially said</a> he would not agree to one in the first term of a Labour government, “because I think we need to concentrate completely on investment across Scotland”. This appeared to bring him close to Conservative leader Boris Johnson’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/07/pm-gives-cast-iron-pledge-to-refuse-second-scottish-independence-vote">“cast-iron pledge”</a> against another Scottish referendum. </p>
<p>Shortly afterwards Corbyn’s aides were clarifying to journalists that this was not a shift from Labour’s previous apparent position, that the party would grant a referendum if the SNP won a majority in the 2021 Scottish election. Corbyn confirmed as much in Hamilton on the next stop of his two-day Scottish tour. </p>
<p>That the Labour leader rowed back on his initial statement speaks to the multi-faced approach that the shifting political dynamics of independence have forced the party to adopt. <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/18003442.shadow-cabinet-minister-says-labour-wont-block-indyref2/">A variety</a> of statements from senior Labour figures in recent weeks and months have ranged from saying they wouldn’t stand in the way of another indyref to expressing almost outright opposition. </p>
<h2>Labour and Scottish independence</h2>
<p>So why does independence cause such difficulties for the Labour party? For decades, Labour was Scotland’s dominant political force. A 1979 referendum vote in favour of creating a Scottish parliament <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/devolution/scotland/briefing/79referendums.shtml">was defeated</a> because there were not enough Yes supporters to clear the turnout threshold. </p>
<p>When a “democratic deficit” emerged during the Thatcher era – in which Scotland broadly voted Labour while England voted Conservative – this gave way to a solid commitment from Labour to create a set of Scottish political institutions within the confines of the UK state. Labour’s motives were twofold: a high-minded democratic justification intermingled with a desire to wrongfoot and decisively defeat Scottish nationalism, which had been <a href="https://www.gerryhassan.com/long-journalistic-essays/the-forward-march-of-scottish-nationalism-and-the-end-of-britain-as-we-know-it/">gaining ground</a> in the 1960s and 1970s. </p>
<p>The idea was that devolution would show Scots that the choice between self-determination and remaining a full member of the UK’s “family of nations” was a false one. Things didn’t exactly pan out that way, however. In the years after the Scottish parliament was finally established by Tony Blair in 1999, the SNP grew in strength and popularity. It took power as a minority government in 2007 and has run Scotland ever since. </p>
<h2>Awkward bedfellows</h2>
<p>The independence referendum was called following the unexpected election of a majority SNP Scottish government in 2011 – the electoral system of proportional representation in Scotland <a href="http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/145353/13/145353.pdf">had been designed</a> by Labour to make it very difficult for this to happen. </p>
<p>The independence campaign placed Labour in the unfamiliar position of arguing against more powers for Scotland. It did so out of conviction, having been a consistent supporter of state centralism and the Westminster system. In the eyes of Scottish voters, the cross-party Better Together campaign put the party in lock-step with UK coalition government leaders David Cameron and Nick Clegg, neither of whom were popular north of the border. </p>
<p>Though Better Together won the referendum with a 55% vote, Labour emerged with little credit, <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/10/labour-worried/">alienating</a> a considerable amount of its <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/03/strange-death-labour-scotland">traditional voters</a> who had voted Yes. The Conservatives have gained in popularity among No voters, representing a purer expression of British nationhood and traditional unionism. Meanwhile, the SNP have remained the predominant voice of Yes voters. Labour’s more equivocal position – seldom opposed to more powers for the Scottish government, but resolutely opposed to independence – has seen them squeezed from both sides. </p>
<p>It is in this context that Corbyn’s comments must be seen. Corbyn is not just saying no to independence, he is saying no to Scottish self-determination. Rowing back two hours later does not change the fact that he has made it easier for himself and his party to be pigeon-holed as acting as one with the Conservative government on this issue. </p>
<p>This is a mistake. Labour may well be close to finished in Scotland already: it commands only seven of the 59 seats, having had 41 as recently as 2010, and polls were <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10309538/corbyn-worst-election-result-scotland-wales-century/">already pointing</a> to new lows this time around. </p>
<p>Corbyn’s apparently harder position may hasten that demise. It doesn’t make it easier for the party that a substantial minority of its voters <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-four-in-10-labour-members-support-scottish-independence-1-4969884">are in favour</a> of independence. Corbyn’s best way forward was to offer to respect the will of the Scottish people in granting a referendum should its parliament vote for holding one; to accept that Scotland’s strong desire to remain in the EU justifies revisiting the question. Alienating the party’s more doggedly unionist Scottish leadership is a price that Corbyn should have been willing to pay. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKGE2019&utm_content=GEBannerB">Click here to subscribe to our newsletter if you believe this election should be all about the facts.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sean Kippin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With Labour in danger of coming fourth in Scotland, they could have done without fresh independence trouble.Sean Kippin, Lecturer in Politics, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/980332018-06-08T15:01:49Z2018-06-08T15:01:49ZSNP deputy leader: Keith Brown’s unconvincing win is bad omen for Nicola Sturgeon<p>White smoke from the Scottish Nationalists: Keith Brown <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44397652">has been</a> elected the party’s deputy leader at the start of this year’s <a href="https://www.snp.org/conference">conference</a> in Aberdeen. His 55.2% polling defeated nearest opponent Julie Hepburn’s 44.8% by a fairly modest margin. </p>
<p>Brown, the cabinet secretary for economy, jobs and fair work, was the only MSP standing after most major candidates decided not to enter the race. A former royal marine who fought in the Falklands campaign in 1982, he was considered the candidate of the party establishment. A rather dull but safe pair of hands, he had <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/indyref2-ahead-vows-keith-brown-after-elected-snp-depute-leader-1-4751545">this to say</a> about a second independence referendum in his victory speech:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I know that decision is in the safest of hands and I am absolutely confident that the person you have just selected me to deputise for – Nicola Sturgeon – will steer us towards that decision.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Hepburn is a longstanding party insider who is currently research manager for MP Stuart McDonald. She campaigned for badly needed internal reforms, arguing that the party has failed to capitalise on the large growth in <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-membership-jumps-by-89-460-to-over-115-000-1-4033361">membership</a> in the months after losing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/alex-salmond-resigns-following-defeat-in-scottish-independence-referendum-31816">first referendum</a> in 2014. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Julie Hepburn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">STV</span></span>
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<p>She was no protest candidate, but her final tally may have benefited from the votes of Chris McEleny, the left-leaning SNP councillor who was eliminated in the first round. McEleny had demanded a referendum be held within 18 months, and it would have been extremely uncomfortable for Sturgeon had he won. </p>
<p>In electing Brown the membership has backed the leadership’s wait-and-see position, but it’s hardly a ringing endorsement. It is the strongest signal yet of disquiet within the party over its direction on independence. </p>
<h2>Separatist schism</h2>
<p>The SNP is divided over an unenviable choice. Announce the date of a second referendum, knowing a defeat would be a near fatal blow to the main aim of the party – or wait and potentially lose the chance for years to come in the likely event that the Scottish parliament’s pro-independence majority is overturned in the 2021 election. </p>
<p>Sturgeon has <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-says-she-wait-for-brexit-deal-to-decide-on-indyref2-a8159046.html">indicated that</a> she will decide in the autumn once the Brexit deal becomes clearer. She and her advisers are well aware that the fortunes of independence are tied to those of a party which has held power in Edinburgh since 2007. </p>
<p>Brexit continues to be the joker in the pack on attitudes to Scottish independence, however. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36599102">Being outvoted</a> by the English and Welsh on remaining in the EU has <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line">not made</a> much difference to Scotland’s desire for divorce from the UK. Yet the National Centre for Social Research <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/news/15817338.Majority_back_economy_of_independent_Scotland/">found earlier this year</a> that more Scots believed leaving the UK would make Scotland better off than the opposite. Don’t rule out the possibility that fears around the economic impact of a hard Brexit are colouring this view. </p>
<p>Inextricably linked to the timing of the referendum is the issue of currency, an Achilles heel for the Yes movement last time around. Sturgeon duly set up a Sustainable Growth Commission to sketch out a new way forward. Chaired by former MSP and economist Andrew Wilson, it published a report last month <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-prospect-of-4-100-per-voter-deliver-scottish-independence-heres-what-the-indyref-evidence-tells-us-97264">arguing that</a> Scotland should retain the pound for at least a decade and introduce tight controls on deficits and spending. </p>
<p>This was intended to be the start of a more reasoned case for independence that dealt with both the fears of 2014 No voters about the currency and concerns from business, particularly the financial sector. Instead, it has been problematic to say the least. </p>
<p>Predictably, Scottish Labour under the more left-wing leadership of Richard Leonard see an opportunity to revive the old jibe of the SNP being “tartan Tories”, <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/uk-regions/scotland/news/95479/scottish-labour-blasts-%E2%80%98cuts-commission%E2%80%99-pro-union-parties">attacking</a> the report as a “cuts commission”. The first minister <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/news/16259510.Sturgeon_defends_Growth_Commission_against_left-wing_critics/">insisted that</a> the report is anti-austerity – but days later the London-based Institute for Fiscal Studies undermined her <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ifs-snp-growth-commission-report-is-continuation-of-austerity-1-4750637">by claiming</a> it would in fact continue the austerity agenda. </p>
<p>Significantly, the SNP is not going to formally debate the report at conference – instead Keith Brown will now chair a series of national assemblies within the party that will debate it in the weeks and months ahead. Yet the report is a sure sign that after 11 years in power, the leadership has begun to lose its touch – compounding <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeons-falling-popularity-could-be-disastrous-for-the-scottish-independence-cause-78957">the feeling</a> around the relatively poor results at last year’s UK election. </p>
<h2>Challenge Nicola</h2>
<p>Ahead of Brown’s lukewarm victory, pressure had already been growing on the party from grassroots organisations. A series of pro-independence rallies have been organised independently of the party by <a href="https://allunderonebanner.com/home">All Under One Banner</a>. One, <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/around-40-000-take-part-in-pro-independence-march-in-glasgow-1-4735359">in Glasgow</a> last month, attracted tens of thousands of supporters – the biggest public demonstration since the 2003 Iraq war. It clearly demonstrates that Yes supporters can still be mobilised. </p>
<p>The SNP is caught between supporters pushing for another referendum, especially those who are pro-EU, and the large proportion of the electorate who don’t want one. Support for independence is still less than 50% in the polls, but it is hard to be sure what to conclude from this. A pessimist would say it’s a signal not to hold another referendum – an optimist might say it is quite favourable considering the SNP has made little effort to mobilise support. </p>
<p>What’s evident is that, on the constitutional question, Scotland remains as divided as it was in 2014. It will take more than the applause for Sturgeon and her new deputy at this year’s rather stage-managed conference to make any inroads into that. The SNP leadership is performing a delicate balancing act, and finding it increasingly difficult to keep anyone happy. Whether Sturgeon can find a way back onto the front foot is going to be the ultimate test of her leadership in the coming months.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98033/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William McDougall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Three stage-managed cheers for Keith Brown – the left is getting restless over independence.William McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/836812017-09-08T11:14:28Z2017-09-08T11:14:28ZScottish devolution at 20: some hits, some misses and that eternal maybe …<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185148/original/file-20170907-9538-1t0ouib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scottish parliament with Calton Hill in the background.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/brostad/5841297115/in/photolist-9Ubb8e-nJGsdK-7SoJRT-pApJ5e-TxvwiJ-6rKw8t-kky9Lx-6GQWR-2LgmSH-abcX9K-6rKvZx-74rSQ6-nGTrub-bkKxPM-5A5cFx-nqqKbB-UkEw42-Hh6YcA-tReQ3N-6vY6Xv-a8G1A9-dLZDQn-pFsbCe-6w3iys-9N3FgL-T8ciK8-cFV1fy-PvuC4-7haxbE-S16qEf-rbEUr-57G7VA-6vY742-iLJ6V6-6vY6XT-7bpyan-4pH12F-gFUsE1-83pMh2-63oks4-qBemvh-eeM3QK-PuTsY-S93UyB-a9Wi7j-gBZRqc-qRi6zJ-ah78um-c1YV3C-57Gjt3">Bernt Rostad</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is the anniversary time of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2013/sep/13/scotland-devolution-referendum-victory">Scottish referendum</a>, in which the electorate voted Yes in overwhelming numbers. I don’t mean the 2014 poll, of course, but its predecessor. It took place on September 11, 1997, a full 20 years ago, and was a vote in favour of a devolved parliament with tax-raising powers. </p>
<p>Within two years, a Scottish parliament was established at Holyrood following the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/contents">Scotland Act of 1998</a>. It was a pivotal moment in the history of Scotland and the United Kingdom. After nearly three centuries Scotland had begun to recover what had been lost in the <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/legislativescrutiny/act-of-union-1707/">Union of 1707</a> with England. </p>
<p>It was the culmination of <a href="https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/171/29750.html">more than a century</a> of campaigning. National self-confidence grew over that time, as did a belief in the ability – and right – of the Scottish nation to govern itself. Post-war central planning under Labour had gone too far. Scots became increasingly dissatisfied with English insensitivity to Scottish distinctiveness, and Westminster’s inability to respond to Scotland’s particular needs. </p>
<p>Holyrood is now firmly embedded. Further Scotland acts in <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/11/contents/enacted">2012</a> and <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2016/11/contents/enacted">2016</a> extended the parliament’s powers significantly beyond those originally envisaged. Members of the Scottish parliament (MSPs) are more accessible and less distant, physically and metaphorically, than Westminster MPs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185147/original/file-20170907-9599-yqyjnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185147/original/file-20170907-9599-yqyjnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185147/original/file-20170907-9599-yqyjnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185147/original/file-20170907-9599-yqyjnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185147/original/file-20170907-9599-yqyjnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185147/original/file-20170907-9599-yqyjnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185147/original/file-20170907-9599-yqyjnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185147/original/file-20170907-9599-yqyjnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Holyrood in session.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Scottish Government</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Scottish parliament has achieved much since its inception. Perhaps its greatest success has been the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35901485">smoking ban</a> in 2006. In this regard Scotland can genuinely claim to have led the rest of the UK, which followed suit a year later. <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Health/Services/Alcohol/minimum-pricing">Minimum pricing of alcohol</a> is of the same order of importance, with Scotland again leading the way, but Holyrood cannot be held responsible for vested interests continuing <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-40718155">to delay</a> implementation.</p>
<p>Devolution has not solved all the nation’s ills, however. The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b81c3a14-179b-11e7-9c35-0dd2cb31823a">democratic deficit</a> has only partly been dealt with, as we saw with the recent <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results">Brexit vote</a> in which Scotland voted to stay in the EU but faces having to leave because it was outnumbered by England and Wales. </p>
<p>The Scottish parliament has also mostly failed to tackle seriously pressing social matters such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/22/when-will-snp-tackle-scotlands-shaming-poverty">poverty</a>, <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/03/2213/0">inequality</a>, and lifestyle issues such as <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Health/TrendDiet">diet</a> and <a href="http://www.healthscotland.scot/health-topics/diet-and-obesity/obesity">obesity</a>. Education policy – regardless of party – has <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-nicola-sturgeon-put-her-biggest-hitter-in-charge-of-scottish-education-63965">been confused</a>, to the extent that the performance of Scottish schoolchildren is <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38207729">falling relative</a> to other countries. </p>
<h2>The rise of the SNP</h2>
<p>Labour – the party that delivered devolution – dominated the Scottish parliament’s early years. But Iraq, dissatisfaction with <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-labour-20-years-on-assessing-the-legacy-of-the-tony-blair-years-76884">New Labour</a> and the party’s complacent, managerial approach at Holyrood left the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2007/may/04/scotland.devolution">door open to</a> an SNP that projected itself as a left-leaning, socially conscious counterweight to Westminster.</p>
<p>The first SNP government (2007-11) gave the appearance of being dynamic and effective. Competence mattered and the leadership team impressed – led by Alex Salmond as first minister, John Swinney as finance secretary and Nicola Sturgeon as deputy first minister/health secretary. The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/election2011/overview/html/scotland.stm">SNP won</a> 69 of Holyrood’s 129 seats in 2011 -– an incredible feat given the voting system had been designed to prevent majority government. Independence was suddenly on the table.</p>
<p>In the days immediately prior to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/independence-referendum-one-year-on-nothing-is-settled-in-scotland-47712">Scottish independence referendum</a> in September 2014, it looked as if the Yes campaign might just win. And though a shattered Salmond ultimately had to admit defeat, the SNP had an <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11570769/SNP-rise-in-three-charts.html">army of new members</a>. In the weeks and months after the 45%-55% defeat, the party’s long march towards the dream that would “never die” appeared to have hastened. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hzO_dVOO21Y?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>When Scotland voted the opposite way to England and Wales in 2016’s EU referendum, it <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-back-in-play-after-brexit-shock-with-a-note-of-caution-61457">initially looked</a> like it would be the trigger for a second independence referendum. The incremental slither to separation, forecast and feared by the opponents of any kind of devolution, seemed well under way.</p>
<p>But then came June 2017’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/england">UK election</a>, in which the irresistible rise of the SNP <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeon-is-overestimating-the-toxicity-of-tories-in-scotland-and-could-pay-for-it-77334">came to</a> a halt. More than one third of their MPs lost their seats. Not only did Labour win back some seats in Scotland, but against the odds, the Tories did even better. </p>
<p>Short-term factors were clearly at work, including much tactical voting. But looked at in historical context, it is perhaps not so surprising that support for independence may have peaked – for the present anyway. </p>
<h2>Opinion divided as ever</h2>
<p>There was no referendum in 1707. Had there been, Scotland would have resoundingly rejected the parliamentary incorporating union that ensued. </p>
<p>There was <a href="http://www.historytoday.com/shf-johnston/act-union-1707">strong support</a> in Scotland for a federal union, however. Despite longstanding rivalry and resentment of England, many Scottish parliamentarians recognised the potential benefits of a trade treaty with their larger, richer and more powerful neighbour. Out and out opponents of any kind of treaty with England were fewer in number.</p>
<p>In short, opinion about the most suitable relationship with England was divided. It has been the same ever since. Politicians who talk about the “Scottish people” or boldly declare that “the nation” has spoken, forget this or perhaps just ignore it. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185149/original/file-20170907-9576-1df936b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185149/original/file-20170907-9576-1df936b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185149/original/file-20170907-9576-1df936b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185149/original/file-20170907-9576-1df936b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185149/original/file-20170907-9576-1df936b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185149/original/file-20170907-9576-1df936b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185149/original/file-20170907-9576-1df936b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185149/original/file-20170907-9576-1df936b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mebbes aye, mebbes naw.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/thepatman/11252977563/in/photolist-i9osbx-i9o9Gg-i9ozqn-i9oeuc-i9opEm-i9o7B4-i9o5NK-i9ocNh-i9owov-i9oaQ8-i9obCR-i9oA9r-i9o5cp-i9oiXE-i9okiY-i9oBtF-i9omDw-i9ojq3-i9oyNa-i9ok7f-i9oe3G-i9obcE-i9oaVt-i9o6GZ-i9oap8-i9o2we-i9owrB-i9oe8m-i9o7tP-i9okmm-i9oohG-i9ohuE-i9oatX-i9oDwZ-i9oeCQ-i9oB7i-i9orFe-i9ogto-i9oEQv-i9orSg-i9ou5c-i9ogAs-i9ofir-i9ohKE-i9oo3d-i9omYm-i9oCzi-i9oghQ-i9oeh8-i9oD2v">Rob Eaglesfield</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s obvious that commitment in Scotland to the union is much weaker now than in the 19th century. Yet Scottish national feeling was as intense then as that which fuelled independence movements elsewhere in Europe. Much of it in Scotland coalesced around celebrations to commemorate <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-nervy-elites-seized-robert-burns-before-radicals-got-there-71839">Robert Burns</a>. Yet few challenged the union. And despite its flaws, that remains an ingrained habit which large numbers of Scots have yet to break. </p>
<p>Many hoped devolution would kill nationalism stone dead, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31129382">to paraphrase</a> George Robertson, Scottish secretary during the 1997 referendum. His Labour colleagues in particular failed to grasp Scots’ powerful sense of nationhood.</p>
<p>It was another Labour man, the late <a href="https://theconversation.com/tam-dalyell-never-held-office-but-he-was-margaret-thatchers-sternest-critic-72021">Tam Dalyell</a>, who argued that devolution could lead to independence. As you might expect, Salmond shares this view. He <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/alex-salmond-scots-will-vote-for-independence-within-4-years-1-4529994">recently asserted that</a> independence was “rendered inevitable when the Scottish parliament was established”. In his view, the Scots will vote for independence within four years. </p>
<p>Will they? Both sides may claim to know where Scotland is heading, but history tells us not to be so sure. When it comes to what relationship it wants with the rest of people in the British Isles, the reality is that Scotland has never quite made up its mind.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83681/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher A Whatley is affiliated with the Labour Party. </span></em></p>Scotland voted for its own parliament in September 1997, but has yet to make its mind up about the biggest issue of all.Christopher A Whatley, Professor of Scottish History, University of DundeeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/792012017-06-09T15:36:15Z2017-06-09T15:36:15ZScottish voters rewrite a well-worn script<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173149/original/file-20170609-4806-1w3fiqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.paimages.co.uk/search-results/fluid/?q=Nicola%20sturgeon&amber_border=1&category=A,S,E&fields_0=all&fields_1=all&green_border=1&imagesonly=1&orientation=both&red_border=1&text=Nicola%20sturgeon&words_0=all&words_1=all">PA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A hung parliament: how little we appreciate the shape-shifting nature of politics in the UK. Like many people, I thought most analysis of the Scottish political landscape post-general election could be expressed before we fully knew the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40171454">results</a>, so I wrote the bulk of this piece early on, before reflecting on the way things actually played out.</p>
<p>The campaign was dominated by talk of “indyref2” – a second referendum on Scottish independence. As in the elections for Holyrood in 2016, the debate soon became polarised and simplistic. The SNP focused largely on Brexit and the UK Conservative government as symbols of the limited control of Scotland’s destiny held by Scottish voters.</p>
<p>The Conservatives went all out to use the election as a platform for its anti-referendum stance, even to the point of printing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/31/snp-tories-scotland-conservatives-scottish-politics">placards</a> to protest the SNP’s manifesto launch. Both parties embraced “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/performance-politics-and-the-british-voter/the-theory-of-valence-politics/8F768342C42E4BC3A5B835A4F33CB130">valence politics</a>” wholeheartedly, focusing on each other’s lack of governing competence (the SNP in Scotland, the Conservatives in the UK), accentuating focus on the leaders, and simplifying their message to the extent that if there was any discussion of actual policies going on, they had failed.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173137/original/file-20170609-20846-tifery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173137/original/file-20170609-20846-tifery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173137/original/file-20170609-20846-tifery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173137/original/file-20170609-20846-tifery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173137/original/file-20170609-20846-tifery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1073&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173137/original/file-20170609-20846-tifery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1073&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173137/original/file-20170609-20846-tifery.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1073&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ruth Davidson honed her message down to a rejection of a second independence referendum.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.paimages.co.uk/search-results/fluid/?q=ruth%20davidson&amber_border=1&category=A,S,E&fields_0=all&fields_1=all&green_border=1&imagesonly=1&orientation=both&red_border=1&words_0=all&words_1=all#2.8721136">PA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Conservatives found that this approach helped them regain ground in Scotland: they became obsessive in their declaration that the SNP is obsessed by the prospect of another referendum. There were other parties involved, but you could blink and miss their importance to this election.</p>
<h2>The only way was down</h2>
<p>The analysis will be dominated by a comparison with 2015, in which the SNP came close to winning all 59 seats (they managed 56, after securing just six in the previous election in 2010). Each seat lost by the SNP in 2017 will be interpreted by the Conservatives as a vote against a second independence referendum.</p>
<p>We faced the bizarre prospect of relatively few newly minted Conservative MPs declaring in their acceptance speeches to a far greater number of SNP MPs, that the people had spoken in the 2017 election: they don’t want another referendum. In fact, the longer-term story remains one of SNP dominance of almost every form of election in Scotland, to the point that opponents declare success if the SNP sees a drop in seats but still wins overall. </p>
<p>When viewed through the lens of the late 1990s when Labour dominated in Scotland, the SNP’s current position is truly remarkable. Perhaps the trick for most opposition parties is to portray the SNP’s 2017 results as a similar beginning of the end, with only another decade or so until it emulates Labour’s spectacular decline.</p>
<p>Yet, if we remain fixated on the constitution and neglect to debate properly the record of the Scottish (and UK) government, why would people vote for anyone except the SNP and, to a lesser extent, the Scottish Conservatives?</p>
<h2>How it really played out</h2>
<p>As it turned out, this analysis did not quite tell the whole story. The SNP did more than lose a few seats (21 in total, down to 35 from 56 seats in 2015). And even though they remain the largest party and won the election in Scotland, the result will, for some time, feel like a loss or at least a major setback, particularly since they experienced major losses with senior figures Alex Salmond and party deputy leader Angus Robertson.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173133/original/file-20170609-10530-y0iigb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173133/original/file-20170609-10530-y0iigb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173133/original/file-20170609-10530-y0iigb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173133/original/file-20170609-10530-y0iigb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173133/original/file-20170609-10530-y0iigb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173133/original/file-20170609-10530-y0iigb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173133/original/file-20170609-10530-y0iigb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The loss of Alex Salmond at Westminster is a devastating blow to the SNP.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.paimages.co.uk/image-details/2.8721136">PA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With 13 seats (a huge increase of 12) that included the scalps of Salmond and Robertson, the Conservatives re-established themselves as Scotland’s main opposition, with every win providing disproportionate symbolic value and a chance to reiterate that their constituents are sick at the thought of another referendum.</p>
<p>Scottish Labour performed a minor miracle gaining seven seats (an increase of six), described before any serious analysis as evidence of a “Corbyn bounce”. Even the Liberal Democrats won back some credibility with four seats (an increase of three). So, in a shifting political landscape, the Scottish electorate helped rewrite a well-worn script.</p>
<p>We will need more reflection to work out the implications for a second referendum on Scottish independence. In the short term, it is clear that Nicola Sturgeon would not have announced one so quickly if she had her time again (although her hand was forced in part by the Brexit vote itself).</p>
<p>The phrase “now is not the time” seems to have more weight after the election, with or without Theresa May behind it. In the longer term, the further maintenance of SNP dominance in most elections will surely keep the issue high up the Scottish agenda, particularly when the implications of Brexit become clearer and start to bite.</p>
<p>But for now, it’s hard to believe that anyone has an appetite for any more voting on any issue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79201/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cairney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even though they won the election in Scotland, the result will be portrayed as a loss for the SNP. So where does it leave Nicola Sturgeon on a second independence referendum?Paul Cairney, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/701562016-12-08T13:49:27Z2016-12-08T13:49:27ZLabour has just blown a big chance to seize initiative on Scotland’s future<p>The Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38223719">has made</a> what she hopes is a major speech to win back <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland">lost voters</a> and make her party relevant in the constitutional debate that has followed the Brexit vote in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results">EU referendum</a>. </p>
<p>In an address to the Institute for Public Policy Research think tank in London, she called for a federal UK founded on a “new Act of Union” that included repatriating to Scotland the EU’s powers in areas like fisheries, farming and employment rights. This would come on the back of a constitutional convention for the UK to determine what form a new settlement should take, modelled on the <a href="http://www.euppublishing.com/doi/abs/10.3366/scot.1996.0017?journalCode=scot">deliberations in Scotland</a> that culminated in the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOQE3xu0hFA">opening</a> of the Scottish parliament in 1999. </p>
<p>Dugdale’s proposal aims to save the union from what she sees as a UK Tory government and Scottish SNP government both intent on pulling it apart – albeit even some notable Labour figures such as former first minister <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/politics/14894334.Former_First_Minister_Henry_McLeish__I___m_ready_to_back_Scottish_independence_following_Brexit_vote/">Henry McLeish</a> have said they would back a Yes vote in a second Scottish independence referendum. Dugdale said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are now faced with a Tory government in Westminster which looks set to force hard Brexit on the whole of the UK. And an SNP government at Holyrood which wants to exploit the divisions to win independence.</p>
<p>This is the position that the majority of Scots – the moderate, pro-union Scots and also many former Yes voters – find themselves in.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
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</figure>
<h2>Echoes and errors</h2>
<p>Dugdale’s speech does not break very new ground. It echoes <a href="http://gordonandsarahbrown.com/2016/11/gordon-brown-proposes-uk-peoples-constitutional-convention/">recent calls</a> by Gordon Brown, the former UK prime minister, for a federal UK devised through a constitutional convention with an elected senate and greater powers for Scotland. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the idea of a new Act of Union to replace the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/aosp/1707/7/contents">1707 original</a> has been floated in the past by Dennis Canavan, the then maverick Labour MP who later became chair of Yes Scotland for the 2014 independence referendum; and <a href="http://www.constitutionreformgroup.co.uk/only-a-new-act-of-union-can-save-the-uk-from-break-up/">more recently</a> by the likes of former Lib Dem leader Menzies Campbell and former Labour Welsh Secretary Peter Hain. </p>
<p>That aside, Dugdale has made the mistake of trying to deal with the UK constitution and Scotland’s future/Holyrood powers at the same time. That is not to say there is not an opportunity for Labour on the constitution. The SNP is currently the party of independence but by default also the party of Home Rule. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149270/original/image-20161208-31364-13q033o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149270/original/image-20161208-31364-13q033o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149270/original/image-20161208-31364-13q033o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149270/original/image-20161208-31364-13q033o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149270/original/image-20161208-31364-13q033o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=796&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149270/original/image-20161208-31364-13q033o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1000&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149270/original/image-20161208-31364-13q033o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1000&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149270/original/image-20161208-31364-13q033o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1000&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘That your best shot?’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.paimages.co.uk/search-results/fluid/?q=sturgeon&amber_border=1&category=A,S,E&fields_0=all&fields_1=all&green_border=1&imagesonly=1&orientation=both&red_border=1&words_0=all&words_1=all">Andew Milligan/PA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The SNP has the problem that <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-independence-support-for-second-referendum-plummets-a7447196.html">support for independence</a> is strong enough to keep the party in office but too low to make it confident of securing its ultimate goal. This explains why the party has not taken a hard line against a settlement short of independence. Former first minister Alex Salmond <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13063679.Salmond__Scots_have_a_right_to_second_question_on_devo_max/">attempted</a> to get devo max on the 2014 ballot, for example, while his successor, Nicola Sturgeon, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/27/nicola-sturgeon-smith-commission-fails-deliver-scotland-powerhouse-parliament">accepted</a> the Smith Commission devolution proposals while demanding more autonomy at the same time. </p>
<p>Some in Labour recognise that they cannot out-unionist the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party and need to carve out a role for themselves as a Home Rule party. Alex Rowley, Dugdale’s deputy, has sought to do this, arguing, <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/alex-rowley-labour-should-have-campaigned-for-home-rule-1-4123109">for example</a>, that Labour should have campaigned for Home Rule in the run-up to the Holyrood elections in May. </p>
<p>Dugdale is coming late to the party and calling for something that would not go as far as Home Rule, and still seems trapped in a Labour unionist mindset that sees Westminster as being the only possible driver of change. Calling for new powers is all very well, but her proposal is still subject to winning the backing of the UK Labour party and then waiting for a Labour government at Westminster that can implement it. </p>
<p>The rather obvious question for Labour is, why not seek these repatriated EU powers through gaining a mandate at Holyrood? Westminster <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/may/06/snp-election-victory-scottish-independence">recognised</a> the SNP 2011 victory as a mandate to negotiate an independence referendum. If Labour and any other parties won a Holyrood mandate for Home Rule, would that not mean that Westminster would have to negotiate a further extension of powers?</p>
<p>By focusing on federalism, on the other hand, Dugdale is calling for something that requires a UK-wide mandate and for which it has to be debatable whether support exists in England. There <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3984387.stm">has not</a> been enough support for English regional parliaments to get them off the ground in the past, for example. </p>
<p>At the same time, I question whether repatriating powers from the EU to Scotland would really require a UK-wide convention. In what sense does the UK’s relationship with its constituent parts need to be resolved before Scottish Labour could, for instance, argue for EU employment powers to be repatriated to Holyrood?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149268/original/image-20161208-31379-fxg40c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149268/original/image-20161208-31379-fxg40c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149268/original/image-20161208-31379-fxg40c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149268/original/image-20161208-31379-fxg40c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149268/original/image-20161208-31379-fxg40c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149268/original/image-20161208-31379-fxg40c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149268/original/image-20161208-31379-fxg40c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149268/original/image-20161208-31379-fxg40c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In with the bricks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/pic-439980358/stock-photo-great-britain-united-kingdom-flag-on-a-brick-wall-great-britain-united-kingdom-flag-great-britain-united-kingdom-flag-great-britain-united-kingdom-flag.html?src=va7EwoInFqWGwil3MxHPRg-1-10">Andril-spyk</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How to live dangerously</h2>
<p>Had Dugdale effectively started a campaign for a Scottish Home Rule mandate and repatriating EU powers to Scotland, she could have carved out a distinct position on the constitution while still supporting a final federal destination. It would at least have allowed Labour to appear relevant on the constitution in future Scottish elections. </p>
<p>If the SNP government is able to gain new powers from Brexit, it would mean Scottish Labour could more legitimately take some credit. On the other hand, if the Scottish government fails to achieve this or gain enough support for a second independence referendum, Labour could claim to have a credible alternative that voters can support in a Scottish election. </p>
<p>Instead, Dugdale has allowed the SNP to maintain its constitutional coalition of independence voters and those who want more powers but would settle for less. The former will undoubtedly stay with the SNP while the latter have not been offered an alternative. </p>
<p>When the former Labour first minister Donald Dewar signed up for a Scottish constitutional convention in 1989, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/3727308.stm">he said</a> it had become necessary for Scots to live a little dangerously. Scottish Labour would do well to heed the advice of their most successful leader since the founding of Holyrood and take a similarly bold approach.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70156/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William McDougall is a member of the UCU. However, his academic work is totally independent from any outside organisation. </span></em></p>Why Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale’s federalist ploy is not the right way forward.William McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/671222016-10-16T13:17:00Z2016-10-16T13:17:00ZNicola Sturgeon seizes on home rule while parking ‘i’ word for another day<p>Just over two years after Scotland’s once-in-a-generation <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">referendum</a>, a colourful crowd with indyref2 flags and banners gathered at the entrance to the SECC in Glasgow ahead of Nicola Sturgeon’s keynote speech at the SNP conference. After the first minister had opened the event on Thursday <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-be-fooled-by-sturgeon-well-see-no-indyref2-for-scotland-until-brexit-is-clearer-67026">with rhetoric</a> about a new independence bill, their mood was buoyant. </p>
<p>Inside the hall, the immediate build up involved two set pieces that anticipated Sturgeon’s speech. We saw a very emotional appearance on stage by members of the Chhokar family thanking the party for its support in pursuing justice over the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-37561791">murder of</a> waiter Surjit Singh Chhokar, whose killer has just been convicted in a retrial 18 years after the event. Then came a debate condemning HMRC and its mistreatment of tax credit victims – an opportunity to attack the Conservatives for their uncaring approach to ordinary people. </p>
<p>When the first minister took to the stage, her speech was all about contrasting a progressive, communitarian and inclusive SNP-led majority in Scotland with a hard-right, xenophobic, inward-looking Conservative government shaming itself by increasingly resembling UKIP. At one point she memorably labelled them the “Conservative and separatist party” for their hard Brexit stance. </p>
<p>Here was Sturgeon the confident progressive European in total control of her party. She said the Brexit result had taken away part of her identity and empathised with how no voters in 2014 would have felt if the independence referendum had gone the other way. She even joked about the party’s primary goal of independence, telling delegates if they remembered just one word from her speech “it begins with an ‘i’”. “No not that one … not yet,” she teased – the “i” she had in mind was inclusion. </p>
<h2>Not one strategy but two</h2>
<p>The news headlines <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/15/nicola-sturgeon-vows-to-hold-second-scottish-vote-in-event-of-hard-brexit">emphasised</a> Sturgeon’s plan for a second referendum in the event of a hard Brexit, but it felt like the first minister is developing two possible plans depending on the Brexit negotiation outcome. She received sustained cheers for announcing permanent trade representatives in Berlin, towards developing stronger EU relationships that might help Scotland stay in the single market whether or not it leaves the UK. </p>
<p>She spoke more than once about “Scotland’s home rule journey”, unashamedly stealing this mantle from Labour and the Lib Dems while avoiding talking about the likes of Kezia Dugdale or Jeremy Corbyn. Here was Sturgeon effectively rewriting the march to home rule as an SNP gradualist success story. </p>
<p>Indeed, the Labour party was dismissed as a joke. “What of Labour?” she said to laughter from the audience, dismissing Scotland’s former dominant party as a branch office lacking ambition. Sturgeon didn’t mention the Conseratives’ Ruth Davidson either, though she did cover the right flank by announcing a policy on child vouchers to offer “choice to parents”. The SNP is the only effective opposition to the Conservative government, was a recurring theme. </p>
<p>Sturgeon was also confident enough to concentrate on issues which were not designed as crowd pleasers but allowed her to put her own stamp on her party and her administration, such as Aleppo and Syrian refugees. She sounded particularly emotional talking about children who grew up in care as she announced a full review of the system that manages them. </p>
<p>This was the first minister in inclusive Scotland mode as she seeks to persuade no votes from 2014 and indeed SNP Out voters over Brexit to change their minds. Talking about the likes of social care and NHS reform is evidently intended to be female friendly, since women were more anti-independence than men two years ago. </p>
<p>Nonetheless this was a speech that was light on policy, which suggests Brexit is overshadowing other areas. It is also perhaps to be expected when the SNP looks forward to celebrating ten years in power next year and now has a first minister who is less populist and more workmanlike than her predecessor. And this may not be a bad thing when it comes to providing answers to deep-seated problems. </p>
<h2>Party positioning</h2>
<p>Sturgeon finished with a promise to defend Scotland’s interests while indicating that Westminster would be to blame if a second referendum does take place. She said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If that moment does arise, it will not be because the 2014 result hasn’t been respected. It will be because the promises made to Scotland in 2014 have been broken.</p>
<p>Above all, it will be because our country decides, together, that being independent is the best way to build a better, stronger, fairer future.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>During the traditional prolonged standing ovation there were loud cheers, hugs for the Chhokar family among others and the usual photo opportunities. Missed by much of the press were the large yes banners being waved at the back of the hall, to the delight of many delegates. </p>
<p>Nobody was telling them to go home and prepare for life in an independent country. For now at least, however, they seemed contented to be moving in the right direction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William McDougall is affiliated with the SNP and is a member of the UCU though the views expressed are entirely his own. </span></em></p>Scottish first minister tries to keep party faithful happy while starting long courtship of the no voters.William McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/655132016-09-16T12:25:14Z2016-09-16T12:25:14ZTwo years after Scotland’s vote, support for independence is stuck in the mud<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137985/original/image-20160915-30614-1r5z7p8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-54427720/stock-photo-four-wheel-truck-stuck-in-mud.html?src=lsthVYbcnznqCBQAE41zLA-1-8">James Edwards</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>September 18 marks the second anniversary of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">Scottish independence referendum</a>, perhaps the most intense, exciting and fascinating period in the country’s political history. And despite the No vote, it’s certainly not business as usual in Scotland. So what has changed in the past two years, and where next?</p>
<p>The political divide north and south of the border has been steadily growing since the referendum. Most important is arguably the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2016/11/pdfs/ukpga_20160011_en.pdf">extra powers</a> on their way to Scotland. From next April, all Scottish income tax revenue will go to the Scottish government, along with the power to create and alter bands. </p>
<p>The Left sees the possibility of generating extra revenues to tackle austerity and social justice. For all sides, it’s an added incentive to grow the economy to increase the tax take. </p>
<p>Yet the economy looks weak compared to the rest of the UK – <a href="https://www.sbs.strath.ac.uk/economics/fraser/20160913/ScotlandsBudget-2016.pdf">with probably</a> the worst fiscal picture since 2007. With some social security powers devolving too, the Scottish government faces challenging spending decisions that probably mean cuts. </p>
<h2>X marks the spot</h2>
<p>The constitutional divide has been just as clear at the ballot box. The message from the Scottish public at the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland">2015 UK election</a> was that the SNP were best placed to keep up the pressure on the Cameron government to deliver on devolution. When the party won nearly 50% of the Scottish vote, winning a remarkable 56 of 59 Scottish seats, unionist Scottish Labour were the main losers. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Conservatives won at UK level by playing up the threat from an SNP-backed minority Labour government to stability, security and territorial integrity. Critics of the Conservatives said the real threat to territorial integrity was campaign posters like the one of Labour leader Ed Miliband dancing like a puppet as the SNP’s Alex Salmond played the flute. </p>
<p>In the same vein has been the Conservatives’ introduction of English votes for English laws. This system of excluding non-English MPs from purely English matters <a href="https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/westminster-passes-english-votes-english-laws-0">became law</a> last autumn, and critics <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-12/english-votes-for-english-laws-is-driving-scotland-out-of-the-uk-snp-mp-claims/">have said</a> it effectively makes non-English MPs second class. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137989/original/image-20160915-30575-13yb33t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Take your partners …</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And yet the Scottish Conservatives unexpectedly ousted Labour to become Holyrood’s second largest party at this year’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland">Scottish election</a>. Under Ruth Davidson, whose personal ratings have <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14747283.Ruth_Davidson_overtakes_Nicola_Sturgeon_in_new_opinion_poll/">just overtaken</a> first minister Nicola Sturgeon’s, the Conservatives arguably succeeded through positioning themselves as best placed to defend the union. </p>
<p>One look at the electoral map gives a good indication of what happened: the Conservatives appealed to middle class No voters in places like Aberdeenshire, East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh. It was another sign that most Scottish politics has been viewed through the constitutional prism since the indyref. Scottish Labour has failed to adapt, tending to insist that policy issues not be treated as constitutional issues. </p>
<p>These trends seem likely to continue at the local elections next year. All eyes will be on whether Labour can cling to control of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-17953270">Glasgow City Council</a>. </p>
<h2>Post-Brexit</h2>
<p>When 62% of Scots voted Remain in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results">EU referendum</a> as the UK voted Brexit, it undoubtedly shifted the political goalposts. The Better Together campaign’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21293490">assurances</a> in 2014 that voting No would secure EU membership for Scotland now look hollow. So too the assertion that the UK represented the most stable choice for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/12/uk-economy-near-standstill-brexit-vote-hits-investment-bcc">Scotland’s economy</a>. The Brexit vote <a href="http://www.snp.org/five_times_westminster_ignored_scotland_s_democratic_decisions">also revived</a> old complaints about a democratic deficit in Scotland. These factors could all make a second referendum a rather different affair.</p>
<p>The pro-independence movement looks more prepared than in 2014, too: recent launches include activist platform <a href="https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9049/commonsocial-has-landed-scotlands-new-social-network-launches">Common Social</a> and the <a href="http://nationalyesregistry.scot">National Yes Registry</a>, a tool to help dormant pro-independence groups organise. <a href="http://www.womenforindependence.org">Women For Independence</a> and the socialist <a href="http://www.allofusfirst.org">Common Weal</a> are <a href="https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9304/common-weal-launches-drive-new-independence-white-paper">thriving</a>, while online news outlet <a href="https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9304/common-weal-launches-drive-new-independence-white-paper">CommonSpace</a> has shown you can be both pro-independence and critical of the SNP. </p>
<p>The only problem is public sentiment. The SNP <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14432723.Second_referendum_only_if_MOST_Scots_want_it__Sturgeon_confirms/">long talked</a> about Brexit being the “material change in circumstances” to justify another referendum, and Nicola Sturgeon <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-independence-back-in-play-after-brexit-shock-with-a-note-of-caution-61457">signalled</a> as much immediately after the EU referendum. Yet the SNP’s <a href="http://www.snp.org/manifesto">2016 manifesto</a> first also wanted evidence of clear, sustained support for independence – generally <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-60-support-needed-before-next-independence-referendum-1-3920508">seen as</a> the 60% bracket. </p>
<p><a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls">After the Brexit vote</a>, polling showed a slim majority for independence. <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls">Since then</a>, Scotland has reverted to narrowly leaning towards the union – not what the SNP might have hoped for at this stage. There are probably a number of reasons. EU membership is <a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/">likely</a> of minor importance to most Scots and, at this stage, unlikely to be a massive gamechanger. A sizeable proportion of SNP/independence voters <a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/">also voted</a> to leave the EU, <a href="http://www.snp.org/pb_what_is_the_snp_s_position_on_the_eu">contrary</a> to party policy. </p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, <a href="https://theconversation.com/independent-scotland-might-get-away-with-a-high-deficit-if-its-feeling-lucky-64409">recent figures</a> suggest an independent Scotland’s fiscal deficit would exceed 9% of GDP compared to the UK’s circa 4% – considerably worse than in 2014. The North Sea oil decline is hitting Scotland hard. Many “soft” No voters are <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/09/has-brexit-not-had-much-impact-on/">more worried</a> about deeper spending cuts and higher taxes to meet spending commitments than EU membership. </p>
<h2>Sturgeon’s dilemma</h2>
<p>The conundrum is how to turn this sentiment around. To that end, the SNP recently launched a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/02/nicola-sturgeon-snp-listening-exercise-europe-brexit-scottish-independence">listening exercise</a> around independence. The party faces a dilemma, however. To call a referendum, it needs to maintain a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. But if a majority continue to favour the union, it risks alienating the very voters it wishes to attract to independence. So it needs to walk a middle ground. </p>
<p>One possible route to independence might be the UK economy taking a significant nosedive post-Brexit. Many chose No in 2014 believing an independent Scottish economy would perform less well. A tanking UK economy might make independence look the safer option. </p>
<p>Alternatively, the prospect of an increased Tory majority at the next UK election could galvanise a Yes vote from Scottish antipathy to the party dating back to Margaret Thatcher. But given the Conservatives’ recent electoral performance in Scotland, you wouldn’t bank on it. </p>
<p>So if the SNP thought Brexit had given them an open goal for independence, it certainly doesn’t look that way. Winning a majority at a future referendum looks tough, perhaps even unlikely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig McAngus does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>How to shift those stubborn opinion polls?Craig McAngus, Lecturer in Politics, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/617282016-06-29T09:57:54Z2016-06-29T09:57:54ZWhy pro-union campaign in second Scottish referendum might be much weaker than last time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128486/original/image-20160628-7851-10pvci4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Still Better Together?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&search_tracking_id=J27ft_J6u5Px3lMUlRvZ0w&searchterm=better%20together%20scotland&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=241278508">kay roxby</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>To say the least, the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887">decision by</a> England and Wales to leave the EU has created a very awkward situation for Scotland. Scottish voters <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36599102">have now</a> endorsed two unions in successive referendums by opting to remain in both the UK and the EU, yet may be unable to be keep membership of both. </p>
<p>Both the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Scottish Labour are investigating possible routes by which Scotland could try to keep EU membership. The Scottish Nationalist MEP Alyn Smith received a standing ovation in the European parliament on June 28 <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36649450">after urging</a> the EU, “do not let Scotland down now”. It may prove, however, that the only way for Scotland to secure EU membership is to break with the rest of the UK.</p>
<p>While the SNP <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36621030">argues that</a> this Brexit vote is a “material” reason to hold a second independence referendum, there are hints of possible realignments among other parties north of the border. The current Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/uk-regions/scotland/news/73391/kezia-dugdale-i-could-vote-scottish-independence">made waves</a> in April by hinting she might back independence in the event of a vote to leave the EU. She then disowned the position, but since June 23 <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/uk-regions/scotland/news/76576/scottish-labour-consider-all-options-amid-second-independence">has been</a> refusing to rule out backing independence in the event of another vote. </p>
<p>Jamie Glackin, the party’s former chair, <a href="http://stv.tv/news/politics/1358674-former-scottish-labour-chair-likely-to-back-independence/">has said</a> he is likely to vote for independence in a second referendum, while former Scottish Labour leader and first minister Henry McLeish <a href="https://www.holyrood.com/articles/comment/henry-mcleish-any-lingering-sense-britishness-still-held-many-scots-being-severely">has spoken</a> of the attractions of independence as a route to Scotland possibly keeping EU membership. Even Labour grandee George Foulkes <a href="http://stv.tv/news/politics/1358675-nicola-sturgeon-says-holyrood-could-try-to-block-brexit/">has given</a> Nicola Sturgeon, the current first minister, his backing to negotiate directly with the EU regarding its future relations with Scotland.</p>
<p>Then there are the Scottish Lib Dems. Their UK leader, Tim Farron, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liberal-democrats-win-over-5000-new-members-with-pledge-to-fight-brexit-a7104841.html">has said</a> it will fight the next election seeking a mandate to reverse the Brexit vote. Assuming it fails, is the party then going to fight a Scottish referendum effectively campaigning for Scotland to leave the EU?</p>
<h2>The problem with Better Together</h2>
<p>A second independence referendum will certainly put these parties in a difficult position. A strong defence of the union would be made harder than in 2014 by the stark political differences over EU membership between the UK’s nations. </p>
<p>Where the pro-union Better Together campaign could previously claim that political attitudes in England and Scotland were not greatly different, now there is a majority Tory UK government and the EU referendum has elevated right-wing figures such as Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. The xenophobic English nationalism that <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farages-eu-has-failed-us-all-poster-slammed-as-disgusting-by-nicola-sturgeon_uk_576288c0e4b08b9e3abdc483">came to the fore</a> in places during the Leave campaign will not help either. </p>
<p>The pro-independence side in Scotland faced claims in 2014 that it was promoting an outdated narrow nationalism in an era in which cooperation is crucial. Following the EU referendum it is arguably now England that looks isolationist and Scotland that appears more internationalist. </p>
<p>So if all this undermines the case for Scotland in the union, what are the chances of it staying in? It is worth emphasising that we have little idea what kind of Brexit the UK will actually have. If the UK achieves a Norway-type deal to stay in the free-trade European Economic Area (EEA), which appears to be the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/brexit-what-happens-next-another-big-choice-on-europe-with-boris/">direction of travel</a>, it might placate some who voted Remain in Scotland. </p>
<p>EEA membership would mean continued participation in the single market and would potentially maintain free movement of EU citizens. This could only be welcomed by the Scottish government and would perhaps take some of the political sting from Brexit. </p>
<h2>The economic dimension</h2>
<p>Even if there is no “soft Brexit” of this variety, there is still the economy to potentially derail Scottish independence from the UK. Many Scottish voters were already concerned about the economic risks of independence in 2014. These have since been exacerbated by the collapse in oil prices and the alarmingly high Scottish budget deficit. </p>
<p>The deficit could even mean that Scotland struggles to gain entry to the EU, given the rule that a country’s deficit must be no higher than 3% of GDP – <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/economy/government-borrowing/news/73097/ifs-scottish-budget-deficit-worse-previously-thought">half</a> the Scottish level. Anyone voting for Scottish independence might have to accept greater austerity in the short to medium term than if they stayed in the union. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128493/original/image-20160628-7819-185jhvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128493/original/image-20160628-7819-185jhvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128493/original/image-20160628-7819-185jhvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128493/original/image-20160628-7819-185jhvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128493/original/image-20160628-7819-185jhvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128493/original/image-20160628-7819-185jhvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128493/original/image-20160628-7819-185jhvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/128493/original/image-20160628-7819-185jhvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">That sinking feeling.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?autocomplete_id=&language=en&lang=en&search_source=&safesearch=1&version=llv1&searchterm=economy&media_type=images&media_type2=images&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=128655458">wrangler</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the other hand, remaining in the UK might look economically risky, too. As well as the uncertainty of being outside the EU, the UK <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/brexit-vote-leaves-uk-on-brink-of-recession-economists-say">could now be</a> heading for recession and prolonged economic instability. That may be an opportunity for those arguing for a break with Westminster. </p>
<p>In any case, the success of the Leave campaign in England demonstrates that economic issues need not always decide the outcome of referendums. We have seen that issues of national identity can inspire voters enough to take risks despite all the dire warnings from experts and political elites. It is one more reason why another Scottish independence campaign could be harder to defeat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart McAnulla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Brexit uncertainty, English xenophobia and a recession brewing - no wonder Scottish Labour is thinking about switching sides.Stuart McAnulla, Associate Professor in Politics, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/592942016-05-25T07:59:04Z2016-05-25T07:59:04ZSick Scotland: SNP plans to deal with health inequality are lukewarm at best<p>Scotland has <a href="http://eurpub.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/10/22/eurpub.ckr136">long been</a> the “sick man of Europe”. Scots’ physical and mental health compares poorly to that other western countries and neighbours within the UK. Glasgow, the largest city, is notably unhealthier than most other parts, and the most affluent 10% <a href="http://www.gcph.co.uk/publications/621_glasgow_health_in_a_changing_city">live far longer</a> than the most deprived. </p>
<p>Glasgow also compares poorly to similar UK cities such as Manchester and Liverpool. The reasons for Glasgow’s bad health have <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/nov/06/mystery-glasgow-health-problems">long been a mystery</a> to those studying it. A <a href="http://www.gcph.co.uk/publications/635_history_politics_and_vulnerability_explaining_excess_mortality">major new report</a> argues it can be blamed partly on successive local and UK governments letting the city dwindle after the decline of heavy industry, combined with particularly poor quality housing. The report, due out in the coming days, has 26 recommendations for turning these Glasgow and Scottish figures around by tackling some of the broader societal causes of ill health. </p>
<p>It comes at a time when the SNP has just won <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland">the Scottish election</a> comfortably – albeit losing its majority – and Nicola Sturgeon has been <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/News/14500240.Nicola_Sturgeon_sworn_in_as_First_Minister_at_Court_of_Session/">sworn in</a> as first minister for another five years. After nine years in power, the SNP needs to do something different to change the fact that the country’s health inequalities <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0048/00487927.pdf">have not narrowed</a> for most measures since devolution in 1999. </p>
<h2>What’s to be done?</h2>
<p>Past SNP and mainstream political policies in this area have broadly fallen into two categories: <a href="http://www.rightoutside.org/">public health campaigns</a> targeting the whole population; and moves to tackle the worst aspects of poverty, highlighted in a recent <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/01/1984">poverty report</a>. </p>
<p>While both can help, they have arguably been neither intense enough nor sufficient for what is required. There is extensive <a href="http://www.instituteofhealthequity.org/projects/fair-society-healthy-lives-the-marmot-review">evidence that</a> inequalities are driven by much more than poverty, hence people’s health <a href="http://image.slidesharecdn.com/fairsocietyhealthylivesthemarmotreview-ilariageddes-101111102235-phpapp02/95/fair-society-healthy-lives-the-marmot-review-ilaria-geddes-2-638.jpg?cb=1422559584">gets steadily worse</a> with every step down the socioeconomic ladder they go. In this context, “stop smoking” campaigns and a focus on poverty <a href="https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/focus-poverty-obscures-need-tackle-inequality">won’t make</a> the difference on their own. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123200/original/image-20160519-30568-1jpdckd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123200/original/image-20160519-30568-1jpdckd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123200/original/image-20160519-30568-1jpdckd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123200/original/image-20160519-30568-1jpdckd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123200/original/image-20160519-30568-1jpdckd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123200/original/image-20160519-30568-1jpdckd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123200/original/image-20160519-30568-1jpdckd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123200/original/image-20160519-30568-1jpdckd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://providentcrm.com/2013/01/31/provident-crm-deliver-smokers-quit-line-to-the-nhs-in-uk/">Smokeline.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Interventions <a href="http://www.healthscotland.com/documents/24296.aspx">must bring</a> increasingly greater benefits to those more in need – certain <a href="http://www.davidhumeinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Inequality-in-Scotland.pdf">tax changes</a>, for example, or not marketing unhealthy options to those that can least afford them. They also need to take into account that targeting early childhood <a href="http://heckmanequation.org/">brings the</a> greatest benefit, particularly if policies continue and adapt throughout people’s lives. </p>
<p>Here’s what the Scottish government, according to its <a href="http://www.snp.org/manifesto">recent manifesto</a>, has in store:</p>
<h2>1. Poverty</h2>
<p>The SNP is backing <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/01/1984">proposals</a> from a recent report to establish a Poverty and Inequality Commission and re-appoint an independent advisor on poverty. It intends to implement the report’s recommendations in full, including disclosing pay ratios, promoting family flexible working practices and closing the gender pay gap. Yet we’re only talking about steps in the right direction. Disclosing pay ratios is not the same as tackling them, for example. And as highlighted above, poverty is a symptom of inequality and focusing on it alone avoids tackling issues such as wealth inequality.</p>
<p>The Scottish government <a href="http://www.snp.org/manifesto">also plans</a> to promote and enforce payment of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20204594">Living Wage</a> and ban zero hours contracts. Although positive, this stops short of proposals from the left-wing RISE party <a href="http://www.rise.scot/manifesto/">to introduce</a> a £10 minimum wage for over-16s. And while the SNP has plans to “end austerity”, it is not clear what this means in practice. </p>
<h2>2. Tax</h2>
<p>There are <a href="http://www.snp.org/our_income_tax_plans_explained">plans to</a> keep the basic 20% rate unchanged. To reduce inequalities via taxation, taxes would need to rise for most groups. You would see the biggest changes for those in the higher tax bands (and the formation of more tax bands, potentially). </p>
<p>While <a href="http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/manifesto/all">Labour</a> and the <a href="https://greens.scot/policy">Greens</a> want a higher top rate, the SNP only plans to block <a href="http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3494974/Budget-2016-Osborne-raises-personal-allowance-cuts-40p-tax-threshold.html">the rise</a> in the 40% tax-band threshold and make the personal allowance for the lowest earners slightly more generous. The SNP <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35702374">will also</a> end the council tax freeze and make higher band houses pay more.</p>
<h2>3. Housing/land</h2>
<p>The SNP proposes 50,000 affordable homes over the next five years. It is overseeing <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-land-reforms-huff-and-puff-but-will-they-blow-anyone-away-58835">land reforms</a> that will reduce the power of landowners, though they look weak next to proposals from the <a href="https://greens.scot/policy">Greens</a> and <a href="http://www.rise.scot/manifesto/">RISE</a> for better rent controls, limiting ownership of large areas, and the cheaper purchasing of land for public use. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123202/original/image-20160519-30568-amf4j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123202/original/image-20160519-30568-amf4j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123202/original/image-20160519-30568-amf4j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123202/original/image-20160519-30568-amf4j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123202/original/image-20160519-30568-amf4j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123202/original/image-20160519-30568-amf4j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123202/original/image-20160519-30568-amf4j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123202/original/image-20160519-30568-amf4j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This land is whose land?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/spodzone/12866626444/in/photolist-kAYPLY-p7rccF-i2vvze-q24WT9-gswFK-oY7Uev-du9MtX-bf3Y1g-phKVq5-oNQoBZ-pJXcam-bF7bP8-pnvxHX-h5JhgB-dX3S16-dGQgEc-eFZncb-q2R6s5-bX8CzQ-doAmBs-7PLMtS-cJHCpL-6p2g4M-o9bj4j-epGTd6-7MhXJ1-acRs9p-rcrVf6-7Mi3sd-qjjggu-7Mekck-axyfRu-nVY7Cm-mLGhi1-7Me6ZK-nzaqdL-f8izzp-i8d1ce-ia3qLx-bnxy7S-hvNusF-an1Svd-7Me7zt-rtLqvX-fckLbA-e4G4zt-adt1Mx-huk5U-pQci4k-smtnkP">Tim Haynes</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<h2>4. Healthcare and public health</h2>
<p>The government’s focus remains on improving health services and changing bad health behaviours. The SNP has championed <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Health/Services/Alcohol/minimum-pricing">minimum unit pricing</a> for alcohol, which should <a href="https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/alcohol-tax-taxation-minimum-pricing-1.552930">reduce consumption</a> across the board but have the greatest benefit in more deprived groups where consumption is relatively greater. Supporting Labour’s <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-would-fight-obesity-with-daily-mile-and-sugar-tax-cash-xppwdv8r7">sugar tax</a> proposals would fall into the same category. </p>
<p>There are not many signs of attempts to reverse the <a href="http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/articles/inverse-care-law">inverse care law</a>, where the least NHS funds go to those most in need of healthcare. There also remains a lack of joined-up thinking between social and health policies – by treating a health problem by looking at a patient’s housing or job status for instance. </p>
<p>The SNP’s <a href="http://www.snp.org/manifesto">manifesto</a> highlights this confused thinking: “public health challenges and health inequalities require a broad response … We will bring forward a new strategy on diet and obesity …” </p>
<h2>5. Education and childcare</h2>
<p>The Scottish government’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/17/nicola-sturgeon-to-provide-free-baby-box-to-new-parents-scotland">plans</a> to increase maternity grants for low income mothers are positive, but would likely need to be extended (by need) beyond the poorest to have an effect across the population. </p>
<p>Plans to improve the quality and flexibility of pre-school education will likely benefit all socioeconomic groups, <a href="http://www.sphsu.mrc.ac.uk/reports/OP017.pdf">but could</a> increase inequalities if the greatest benefits end up being provided to more affluent families. On the plus side, the Scottish government is promising increased bursaries for lower income students going to university while also continuing free tuition. </p>
<h2>What should we make of it?</h2>
<p>Many policies look like steps towards a healthier Scotland, but the overall package looks suspiciously like an approach that will maintain the status quo: public health campaigns, focusing on poverty, and initiatives that are big on rhetoric, but limited in having a real impact on Scotland’s inequalities. </p>
<p>Scotland’s minority parliament could represent an added threat. The limited number of references to inequality in the <a href="http://www.scottishconservatives.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Scottish-Conservative-Manifesto_2016-DIGITAL-SINGLE-PAGES.pdf">Conservative manifesto</a> (one mention compared to over 20 by the SNP and Greens, and 17 by Labour) is particularly worrying given that they are now the second largest party in the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59294/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Robertson has previously received funding from the Medical Research Council, the Chief Scientist Office for Scotland and NHS Health Scotland for work on health inequalities research. He is affiliated with the People’s Health Movement. The views in this piece are entirely his own. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anuj Kapilashrami is affiliated with the People's Health Movement. The views in this piece are entirely her own. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Smith has previously received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, the Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust for work on health inequalities research, and funding from Cancer Research UK for research exploring health taxes and tobacco industry policy influence. She is currently a recipient of a Philip Leverhulme Prize award and is using this award to undertake further research on health inequalities. She is also a member of the People’s Health Movement Steering Group. The views in this piece are entirely her own.
</span></em></p>Scotland remains sick man of Europe despite devolution. Here’s what is going wrong.Tony Robertson, Lecturer in Public Health, University of StirlingAnuj Kapilashrami, Lecturer in Global Public Health, The University of EdinburghKatherine Smith, Reader, Global Public Health Unit, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/592082016-05-11T11:43:48Z2016-05-11T11:43:48ZA second indyref looks inevitable – the Scottish election changes nothing<p>It did not take long for political parties and commentators to start making confident pronouncements about what the <a href="https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2016/05/06/the-scottish-parliament-election-2016-another-momentous-event-but-dull-campaign/">Scottish election result</a> means for the future of the union. Equal first prize must go to the Scottish Conservatives and the Scottish National Party. Ruth Davidson and her fellow Conservatives <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/13/ruth-davidson-pledges-to-fight-snp-with-new-campaign-for-the-uni/">are arguing</a> that commanding 24% of Holyrood seats gives them a mandate as the protector of the union, while Nicola Sturgeon <a href="http://stv.tv/news/politics/1353366-sturgeon-says-summer-independence-drive-will-go-ahead/">insists</a> the SNP has sufficient backing to relaunch its independence campaign in the summer – there is always the danger that the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/oct/28/scotland">leopard man of Skye</a> hasn’t heard about the issue, I suppose. </p>
<p>In truth, the result did not really tell us anything more about the two things we already know. The first is that in the short term, the only event that matters is the EU referendum vote on June 23. If most UK voters choose to leave the EU and most in Scotland vote to remain, there will be a constitutional crisis. The ruling SNP will push for a second referendum on Scottish independence; and along with the six Green MSPs, it will have the votes to pass a bill to that effect in the Scottish parliament. The only obstacle would be a UK government led by the party that just used a referendum to justify major constitutional change.</p>
<p>Second, in the absence of such an event we are just killing a horrible amount of time until the next meaningful opportunity to vote on Scottish independence. Assuming the SNP continues to win elections in Scotland, or at least pro-independence parties maintain a majority in Holyrood, I’ve always thought the gap would be about ten years. That would be enough time since the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">2014 vote</a> for the Yes side to see if it can produce a generational change in attitudes. </p>
<p>Instead of admitting this state of affairs, we have the usual posturing from the main parties. Both the Tories and the SNP know that the only other triggers of an early referendum are weak – the <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-60-support-needed-before-next-independence-referendum-1-3920508">SNP’s mooted shift</a> in independence support from the current high forties to around 60%; and the Scottish Greens’ <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/scottish-green-manifesto">mention of</a> a petition with maybe 100,000 votes. Yet they feel they have to keep up the longest game of chicken in Scottish political history. </p>
<p>The only party that really needs the further debate is Scottish Labour. The party’s attempts to appear flexible about the constitution and reinstate some distance with the more staunchly unionist Conservatives often make it look confusingly ambivalent. Witness the furore during the campaign when Labour leader Kezia Dugdale <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35948407">initially refused</a> to rule out backing a second independence referendum in the event of a Scottish Remain/UK Brexit vote. Nearer election day the party <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/dugdale-doesnt-ever-want-to-take-part-in-another-independenc?utm_term=.nmLZJZPbOn#.xsxpKpeoxW">ruled out</a> another referendum for the duration of the current parliament. Now the deputy leader Alex Rowley and other senior voices are <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14479042.Labour_s_deputy_leader_says_party_must_back__home_rule__for_Scotland_after_election_disaster/?ref=rss">calling for</a> full home rule, and one backer, former Labour first minister Henry McLeish, <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mcleish-calls-for-fresh-referendum-xtsnw0kpj">wants this</a> put to the public along with independence in a second referendum. </p>
<h2>The heart of the matter</h2>
<p>Another misleading trope is for commentators to <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14479009.David_Torrance__The_Ulsterisation_of_Scottish_politics_is_complete/">argue that</a> this election marks the complete “Ulsterisation” of Scottish politics, where people vote SNP for independence or Conservative for the union and only identity-politics matters. </p>
<p>It must be a tempting argument, but <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9248.12016/abstract">detailed analysis</a> dating back to the SNP victory in the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2007/scottish_parliment/html/region_99999.stm">2007 election</a> strongly suggests that voters’ biggest reason for backing the party has been the belief it would do the best job in office – “<a href="http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/019924488X.001.0001/acprof-9780199244881-chapter-10">valence politics</a>”, as academics sometimes describe it. This is usually key to getting elected anywhere, along with having a leader and a vision for the future that voters respect. The SNP has benefited from being a party that looks highly professional, even if one’s belief in the party’s competence may admittedly be linked strongly to one’s belief in independence. </p>
<p>The same electoral reality explains why the Conservatives went big on Ruth Davidson during the campaign – many of their promotional materials did not even mention the party. It is also why they used a proxy for governing competence – <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/13/scottish-conservative-manifesto-strong-opposition-snp-ruth-davidson">“strong opposition”</a> – in the absence of the likelihood of them being in government. Meanwhile, Labour may have suffered because compared to the SNP and Conservatives, its seems shambolic. Identity politics surely matters as the factor which underpins core attitudes, but these perceptions around competence and leadership probably better explain the trends in support for each party.</p>
<p>Still, perhaps the biggest lesson from this election is that if you are determined to make and act on this argument about identity politics you should do it well. The SNP and Conservatives did it well. In contrast, too many senior people in Scottish Labour – including the leader, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0788y0t">Kezia Dugdale</a>, and former deputy <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/08/scottish-labour-under-pressure-revisit-home-rule">Anas Sarwar</a> – expressed disappointment that the electorate did not think like them. As has been <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-mcternan-three-reasons-why-voters-punished-scottish-labour-1-4121408">pointed out elsewhere</a>, this is hardly likely to endear voters. Put together, constitutional ambivalence and strategic incompetence can be off-putting. So the two biggest parties in the Scottish parliament might be annoyingly narrow-minded, but at least they look like they know what they are doing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cairney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Everyone is trying to claim the Holyrood result furthers their own position. It’s all noise.Paul Cairney, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/590072016-05-06T09:16:40Z2016-05-06T09:16:40ZScottish election 2016: disaster for Labour, reality check for the SNP – and the Tories are back<p>The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland">2016 Scottish election</a> was <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-election-2016-six-things-you-need-to-know-57993">meant to be</a> a foregone conclusion. Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP was expected to achieve another majority in a repeat of 2011, but it hasn’t happened. The party is the clear winner, securing a historic third term, but two seats short of the majority line. It didn’t quite win as many constituencies as it hoped, and the regional-list vote didn’t deliver enough seats to get the SNP to the magic 65. </p>
<p>The other big surprise is the scale of the Conservative revival. The polls <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/05/the-final-poll-apart-from-the-one-that-really-matters/">were predicting</a> a tight race between Labour and the Conservatives for second place, although most commentators believed that Labour would just about hold on to its position as the largest opposition party. As things have transpired, Labour had a terrible night and now finds itself as Scotland’s third party. Ten years ago – even five years ago – such a thought would have been inconceivable. Ruth Davidson’s Conservatives are now the official Holyrood opposition, with seven seats more than Labour. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121518/original/image-20160506-32047-5c8zhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121518/original/image-20160506-32047-5c8zhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121518/original/image-20160506-32047-5c8zhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121518/original/image-20160506-32047-5c8zhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121518/original/image-20160506-32047-5c8zhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121518/original/image-20160506-32047-5c8zhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121518/original/image-20160506-32047-5c8zhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121518/original/image-20160506-32047-5c8zhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>So what happened? As with any election, the dust has to settle and the result picked over in greater detail. But a few patterns have emerged.</p>
<h2>Labour is decimated</h2>
<p>In areas that have traditionally been considered Labour heartlands, the SNP has done very well and Kezia Dugdale’s Labour party very badly. In Glasgow, for example, the SNP has secured a clean sweep of constituency seats and increased its majorities in the seats it won in 2011. In that city, as well as Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire and Fife, we have seen a similar pattern to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/scotland">UK election of 2015</a>. Patrick Harvie, co-convenor of the Scottish Greens, even knocked Labour into third place in Glasgow Kelvin. </p>
<p>Barring a few exceptions, it has been the SNP that has come out comfortably on top. Labour’s Jackie Baillie narrowly held Dumbarton, the constituency which houses the UK’s Trident missile system; and former leader Iain Gray narrowly held on to East Lothian as he had done in 2011. Edinburgh Southern was also won by Labour, local factors playing a key role there as they did at last year’s general election – the equivalent Westminster seat is Labour’s only one in Scotland. On the whole, however, the trend for the SNP replacing Labour as the party of Scotland’s working classes has continued unabated. In all, Labour lost 13 constituency seats to be left with just three – one fewer than the Lib Dems. </p>
<p>Labour gained some solace from Scotland’s eight regions, which offer a route for parties to gain seats to counter the disproportionality of first-past-the-post constituencies. It picked up four seats in Glasgow this way, but Mid Scotland and Fife returned them only two list MSPs despite the party winning no constituencies in the region. Lothian and Highlands and Islands also proved disappointing, returning two Labour MSPs on both lists. </p>
<h2>The Conservatives are back</h2>
<p>The story of the night has been the performance of the Conservatives in constituencies across Scotland, taking seven first-past-the-post seats compared to three last time, including their leader Ruth Davidson in Edinburgh Central. As results from Glasgow and the surrounding area came in, it was clear the party was going to make gains, increasing its share of the vote by around ten percentage points in some seats where it has struggled in recent decades. The Conservatives also made significant gains from Labour in Eastwood and Dumfriesshire and from the SNP in Edinburgh Central and Aberdeenshire West. </p>
<p>In North East Fife, a Lib Dem gain from the SNP, the Conservatives’ share of the vote fell slightly. Only in Ornkey did that also happen. In Edinburgh Western, another Lib Dem gain from the SNP, the Conservative increase was minimal. It perhaps signifies a willingness for Conservative voters to back the Lib Dems in these seats.</p>
<p>The Conservatives did well in the list seats, too. They won three MSPs in Central Scotland, by no means a region that is typically sympathetic to the Conservatives, and four in North East Scotland, helping keep the SNP off the list altogether. The party also won two seats in the Glasgow region and three in Highlands and Islands. Nationally, the party has increased its share of the vote by 8.1 points to 22%, only 0.6 points behind Labour.</p>
<h2>The battle for fourth</h2>
<p>The lists meanwhile helped the Scottish Greens to overtake the Liberal Democrats to become the fourth party of Holyrood, with six seats. Added to the SNP seats this does mean that the pro-independence parties retain a majority. </p>
<p>Yet the Greens are one MSP short of their 2003-07 heyday, and have achieved fewer than some polls <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-election-2016-why-next-parliament-will-be-anything-but-dull-58677">were predicting</a>. They had a slightly disappointing showing in Glasgow by managing only one MSP in the form of Patrick Harvie, but in Lothian they picked up two seats, as well one in both Mid Scotland and Fife, Highlands and Islands and West of Scotland. </p>
<p>Despite another disappointing night in Scotland for the Lib Dems, there were a couple of surprises. Aside from holding both Orkney and Shetland, the party managed to gain two seats from the SNP. In North East Fife, the party’s leader, Willie Rennie, ran out the comfortable winner, while the party also won Edinburgh Western. In both seats there appears to have been significant tactical voting, with the Liberal Democrats likely benefiting from Conservative defectors. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/politics/ukips-david-coburn-tipped-to-take-partys-first-seat-in-holyrood-despite-embarrassing-gaffes.16988">predictions</a> that UKIP might pick up a seat came to nothing. </p>
<h2>The big picture</h2>
<p>The election seems to have reflected the divisions in Scotland over the constitution and class. In areas that are more deprived and traditionally working class and which had a high Yes vote in the independence referendum, the pattern is broadly strong support for the SNP coupled with decline in the Labour vote. </p>
<p>In areas that are more middle class and which voted No in the referendum, the Conservatives have done particularly well apart from a couple of exceptions, namely the Liberal Democrat gains on the mainland. The Conservatives’ framing themselves as a firm unionist opposition to the SNP appears, at least on the surface, to have had some impact. Within this structural fusion of class and constitutional politics, Scottish Labour is struggling to articulate a vision that fits into this new reality.</p>
<p>The SNP will seek to govern as a minority administration, like it did in the 2007-11 parliament. This opens up opportunities for the other parties to do deals in return for supporting the government’s legislation. Although on the face of it one would think the Greens would be the natural party for the SNP to do business with, there is quite some distance between them on issues such as taxation. </p>
<p>During the 2007-11 parliament, the SNP did quite a few deals with the Conservatives – passing the budget in return for increased police numbers, for example. It will be interesting to see to what extent we see a repeat this time around – and whether the nationalists continue to treat Labour as their primary enemy. And although the result is something of a disappointment for the SNP, it must be remembered that the Scottish parliament was designed to be a place where overall majorities were pretty much impossible. We will probably look back on the 2011-2016 parliament as an aberration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59007/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig McAngus does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new normal for Nicola – minority rule once more.Craig McAngus, Lecturer in Politics, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/588352016-05-04T12:36:05Z2016-05-04T12:36:05ZScottish land reforms huff and puff, but will they blow anyone away?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121208/original/image-20160504-1305-jnvoko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Same as it ever was: Kyleakin Castle on Skye.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/oliver_clarke/15356193027/in/photolist-poYvbK-dYe1f6-qmgBXK-rPrTfA-pA1pg7-gU752N-qQDayK-qyLJfi-oAyhKh-pMwKsK-pj3r3i-pTWoMS-aAZt8d-dJ43Ez-h3F6rs-pzawed-scpy8h-qxP7Nb-sfH4nn-qvmxk6-dt5LsA-dyAFqE-oLs596-6vvEBv-qyEsN9-nh7dMv-no9T6k-hX4F7X-nFtixo-qyEsAA-cRR8ud-dcQzWi-oFjHBH-pGmeLk-9D3qeG-qmVHcX-q6qcr6-e3y1PF-bxp2KM-ojnaJn-phKVq5-hCaXgq-oNQoBZ-daq3BZ-rgoqJY-bF7bP8-5Kp6y5-g26ngf-6wKM3J-pnvxHX">Oliver Clarke</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Scotland’s <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2016/18/contents/enacted">new land laws</a> were approved this year, it marked the end of a process that has run for most of the current five-year parliament. Landownership was arguably ripe for change: in egalitarian Scotland, <a href="http://www.ckdgalbraith.co.uk/blog/right-buy-land-further-sustainable-development">a reported</a> 50% of private rural land is owned by fewer than 500 people and entities, and landownership has not been liberated <a href="https://theconversation.com/nobility-may-be-up-in-arms-but-scotlands-land-reforms-look-fairly-tame-46100">in the way that</a> it has in some nearby countries. </p>
<p>This was not Holyrood’s first dalliance with the subject. Previous <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2003/2/contents">reforms in 2003</a> gave everyone access to Scotland’s outdoors, even without an owner’s prior consent, provided it is taken responsibly and subject to certain exclusions. It also gave communities some rights over local land, including a right of first refusal in rural areas and a right to buy in the crofting areas of the north and west of Scotland. </p>
<p>Important as those innovations were, some called for more reform. They were answered in part <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2015/6/contents/enacted">by rules</a> introduced last year to further empower communities by entitling them to participate in numerous local decisions and giving them a new right of acquisition for abandoned, neglected or environmentally mismanaged land. It also widened the right of first refusal into Scotland’s cities. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Crofting rights were an earlier priority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&searchterm=scottish%20land&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=289636874">Duncan Andison</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What the new rules do</h2>
<p>Now comes the <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/CurrentCommittees/90754.aspx">Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2016</a>. In some cases it could directly force a change of landowner, either through a community buying land to further sustainable development, or by allowing certain types of agricultural tenant to buy land where the landlord is in material breach of a court order or arbitration award. (As I’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/nobility-may-be-up-in-arms-but-scotlands-land-reforms-look-fairly-tame-46100">explained before</a>, this doesn’t quite go as far as compulsory purchase orders.)</p>
<p>There is a boost to transparency of ownership through new rules about disclosing the controlling shareholder in a landowning entity. Coupled with an existing <a href="https://www.ros.gov.uk/about-us/land-register-completion">drive to</a> complete the map-based Land Register of Scotland by 2024, which will improve accessibility of information about the land itself, this will make it harder for operators registered in offshore tax havens to hide who directs their Scottish land holdings. </p>
<p>Landowners now have a decision to make about making their land available for shooting, as the new act removes rate reliefs on such activities. Whether they still allow shooting will of course depend on whether they can afford the rates, and also whether they are eligible for other offsetting reliefs (such as <a href="https://www.mygov.scot/business-rates-relief/">those for small business</a>). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dear deer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/35/Red_Deer_Stag_Wollaton_Park.JPG">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are some important reforms to farm tenancies regarding matters like rent review, tenancy transfers and inheritance. They don’t enable tenants to pass their lease to absolutely anyone, but a reform introduced in the latter stages of the bill’s passage through Holyrood will allow transfer to “an individual who is a new entrant to, or who is progressing in, farming” in certain circumstances. That procedure is convoluted and controversial, so much so that there have been indications that landowners may <a href="http://www.scottishlandandestates.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4855:landowners-highlight-fears-for-future-of-tenant-farming-sector&catid=71:national&Itemid=107">challenge the rules on human rights grounds</a>. </p>
<p>Landlords will also in future be measured against a “land rights and responsibilities statement”, and there are new guidelines for how they should engage with local communities when important decisions are made. And the whole regime will be overseen by the new Scottish Land Commission, which will also have a role in ensuring land reform stays in the foreground of Scottish policy. </p>
<p>These reforms will undoubtedly make quite a difference to landowners, land managers, communities, tenants and Scottish society as a whole. It is <a href="https://theconversation.com/radical-land-reforms-in-scotland-are-nothing-of-the-sort-42285">difficult to</a> make a direct comparison with England, which has very different land rules, but Scotland is certainly now a little less favourable for the landowning classes. That said, the SNP government could have covered more ground still. At various points in the development of this law, there were suggestions about: a cap on landownership above a certain level; preventing entities registered outside the EU from owning land; and full compulsory sale orders. None of these appear in the legislation. </p>
<p>The Holyrood election campaign has demonstrated that many political parties are interested in further land reform: Scottish Labour’s <a href="http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/manifesto/all">manifesto says</a> the new act is “botched” and that it would look at making improvements, including ensuring land in Scotland is “registered within the EU”. The Scottish Greens <a href="https://greens.scot/blog/5-bold-commitments-from-the-scottish-greens">proclaim that</a> “Scotland can be bolder on land reform” in terms of tax and offshore ownership. </p>
<p>The Scottish parliament has gone some way towards changing the rules about landholding in Scotland. Now that the genie is out of the bottle, the debate is clearly not going to end here.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58835/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adviser to the Scottish-government-appointed Land Reform Review Group June 2013-May 2014. Solicitor and member of the Law Society of Scotland, non-practising Solicitor in England & Wales. Fellow of the Higher Education Academy. Views are entirely his own. </span></em></p>Why the ruling classes may think twice about landownership in Scotland.Malcolm Combe, Lecturer in Law, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/579932016-04-18T14:05:12Z2016-04-18T14:05:12ZScottish election 2016: six things you need to know<p>You might be wondering if it is worth paying attention to the Scottish election, which will be held <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35813119">on May 5</a>. The result certainly looks a foregone conclusion: the ruling SNP will form a majority government for another five years. But look more closely and there’s plenty to say – both about the broad sweep of Scottish politics and the current campaign:</p>
<h2>1. SNP arc is almost complete</h2>
<p>Don’t miss the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-truths-about-scottish-politics-that-might-surprise-you-45182">monumental nature</a> of what is about to happen. Nicola Sturgeon’s victory will represent the peak of a transformation in Scottish politics since 1999 that almost no one predicted – consolidation of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13319936">SNP majority</a> of 2011. The Blair government <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/may/06/snp-alexsalmond">designed</a> a system that it was thought would prevent anyone from securing a majority. Instead of Westminster’s first-past-the-post system, the Scottish system included 56 seats from <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/guides/newsid_8227000/8227617.stm">regional lists</a> to offset some of the distribution of the 73 constituency seats. This was intended to make it more proportional, but only up to a point. </p>
<p>In the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/scotland">2015 UK general election</a> the SNP’s 50% share of the vote secured 56 of 59 MPs (95%). If the polls for the current election are right <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14432948.Scottish_Tories_and_Labour_neck_and_neck_in_election_race__new_poll_suggests/">to indicate</a> that the party can maintain that level of support in constituency votes, it could even secure a majority before the regional votes are counted. (<a href="http://www.electionforecast.scot">One forecast</a> predicts the SNP to get 56% or 72 of the seats, compared to Labour’s 32 and the Conservatives’ 18. <a href="http://vote.cutbot.net/forecast/2764327e">Others</a> are a bit more upbeat about the Conservatives’ hopes, while also playing up the Greens.) </p>
<p>The likelihood of an SNP majority has produced a weird game of chicken in which we all know what will happen regardless of <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/04/more-excitement-than-movement-on-the-impact-of-the-campaign-so-far/">the campaign</a> but the party leaders still dare each other to declare the result. Everyone knows that admitting defeat opens you to claims of defeatism – as Conservative leader Ruth Davidson <a href="http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/14423965.Ruth_Davidson_launches_manifesto_and_admits_defeat/">discovered</a> – while hinting at victory <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35842678">wins you</a> the “most arrogant” prize. </p>
<h2>2. The indyref stick</h2>
<p>Clearly the <a href="http://www.scotreferendum.com">Scottish independence referendum</a> did <a href="https://paulcairney.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/cairney-2015-introduction-political-quarterly.pdf">not settle</a> the constitutional debate. The main opposition parties, particularly Scottish Labour, are repeating last year’s UK election claim that the SNP will use any victory to push for a second referendum. Yet the only plausible trigger, at least in the short term, is the EU referendum: if most voters in Scotland vote to stay in, and most voters in the UK vote to leave, the first minister <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35625067">has said</a> it would “almost certainly” prompt the SNP to demand a second vote. </p>
<h2>3. Tax matters</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2016/11/contents/enacted">Greater devolution</a> has prompted much debate on how to use the so-called “Scottish rate of income tax” that became feasible on April 1 for the first time. You might have expected this campaign to have sparked a lively discussion about the benefits and costs of raising income tax to fund services, or about who should win and lose from tax changes. So far we’ve mainly seen a pedantic and (perhaps deliberately) confusing <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/14288378.display/">debate about</a> whether it would be progressive to raise income tax by 1p as <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35461968">proposed by</a> Scottish Labour; the <a href="http://www.ippr.org/news-and-media/press-releases/ippr-scotland-fresh-figures-reveal-how-much-tax-parties-plans-will-raise">likely income</a> from each 1p rise; and the <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=20661">unintended consequences</a> of greater higher-rate taxation. </p>
<p>Knowing the SNP will win the election makes it is relatively hard to take seriously the tax plans of the other parties, including Scottish Labour’s planned 1p rise and the Scottish Conservatives’ <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/mar/04/scottish-tory-leader-put-off-call-for-lower-tax-by-news-of-deeper-cuts">abandoned hope</a> to reduce it (ditto their <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/13/scottish-conservative-manifesto-strong-opposition-snp-ruth-davidson">proposal to</a> reintroduce tuition fees). Similarly, gone are the days when the Scottish Greens’ <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/12/scottish-green-party-nicola-sturgeon-tax-rich-holyrood-election">more radical</a> income and land tax plans had any chance of success.</p>
<h2>4. The SNP’s record</h2>
<p>The opposition parties <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeons-first-year-still-scotlands-darling-but-what-is-she-achieving-50990">have been trying</a> to maximise concerns about the performance of the NHS and Police Scotland, and the SNP’s failure to reduce the “attainment gap”, but there is little evidence to suggest that such criticism is sticking. Indeed, crises like the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/11/call-safety-review-all-edinburgh-schools-after-closures-pfi-scotland">Edinburgh PFI schools closures</a> have called into question Labour’s record on capital finance up to 2007, even though the SNP has maintained a <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7d8aac14-37a0-11e5-b05b-b01debd57852.html">similar financing model</a> in office. </p>
<p>This failure to score many hits on the SNP’s time in government is weird when you consider that one of the key factors in its 2007 and 2011 successes was the perception of the party’s competence. The SNP <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/snp-scotland-victory/">did well</a> to maintain that perception in 2011, but despite so long in government it is tempting to think that the <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/11/01/nicola-sturgeon-scotlands-most-popular-person/">popularity of Nicola Sturgeon</a> and the party’s post-referendum bump has made this less of an issue in 2016.</p>
<h2>4. Fracking silence</h2>
<p>One issue which could have hurt the SNP is fracking. There is some <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34267783">internal division</a> in the party about the Scottish government maintaining a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-34474690">moratorium</a> rather than complete ban on all shale oil and gas development. Scottish Labour <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/kezia-dugdale-i-will-outlaw-fracking-in-scotland-1-4042877">now supports</a> a ban. Yet the moratorium, along with Sturgeon’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35783026">recent description</a> of her position as “highly sceptical about fracking” and the SNP decision not to debate the issue at its annual conference, means it will probably remain a non-talking point until after the election. </p>
<h2>5. The rest</h2>
<p>The smaller parties mattered <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/visitandlearn/Education/16288.aspx">in 2003</a>, garnering 14 out of 129 seats (or 34 if you include the three independents and 17 Scottish Lib Dems). Now they have become a sideshow. The Scottish Greens, who currently have two seats, <a href="http://www.electionforecast.scot">may end up</a> with four. That could be the same as the Lib Dems, who currently have five. The <a href="https://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/ukip-scotland-leader-david-coburn-sets-record-straight">increasingly comical</a> UKIP are likely to receive none. </p>
<h2>6. Progress</h2>
<p>Perhaps the most welcome non-talking point was Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale’s <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/kezia-dugdale-scottish-labour-leader-announces-she-is-in-a-same-sex-relationship-a6965041.html">decision to</a> “share with the world that I’m in love with a woman”. She <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/kezia-dugdale-im-bowled-over-7685153">generally received</a> praise, establishing the Scottish parliament as home to an <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-scotland-35960152">unusually large number</a> of LGB party leaders. </p>
<p>There is also <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/tide-turned-for-womens-representation-scotland/">some evidence</a> to suggest that after a few false dawns, gender-based equality of selection is catching on again. This seems to have been reinforced by the three biggest parties all being led by women.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57993/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cairney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Spoiler alert: we already know the winner.Paul Cairney, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/451822015-07-27T05:24:50Z2015-07-27T05:24:50ZFive truths about Scottish politics that might surprise you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89672/original/image-20150724-8457-1eoaas0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If you thought you had the political wiles of Caledonia covered, this'll be well worth a look </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bee_and_Thistle.jpg#/media/File:Bee_and_Thistle.jpg">Wikimeda</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11754256/Scots-are-more-Right-wing-than-the-English.html">Scots ‘are more right-wing than the English’</a>, shouted the Telegraph recently, taking not a little pleasure in a new report that told us something counter-intuitive following the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/scotland">recent SNP landslide</a> on an anti-austerity ticket.</p>
<p>What else don’t we know about the politics of Scotland? Here’s five things that tend to be overlooked or forgotten – starting with some more detail on the story in question. </p>
<h2>1. Scottish voters are not all that left wing</h2>
<p>The Telegraph piece drew on a new report by David Bell and David Eiser of the University of Stirling, which tells the less-dramatic story that Scottish and English social attitudes are often very similar when you ask them about things like economic inequality and criminal justice. In truth, this should really only be a surprise if you have been putting your hands over your ears for the past ten years and singing la-la-la whenever an academic says, “Well, actually …”. </p>
<p><a href="https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2014/08/12/would-an-independent-scotland-be-more-left-wing-in-a-meaningful-way/">My impression</a> is that the new mission in life, for academics studying social attitudes, is to rid us of the notion that the Scottish population is more left wing than the rest of the UK. Studies over the years <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.12163/abstract">have pointed out</a> that huge policy divergences such as Scottish/English <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-tale-of-two-nations-how-tuition-fees-in-england-and-scotland-differ-over-debt-and-inequality-38394">tuition fees</a> were not driven by different levels of support for policy change. There is support in Scotland to maintain existing policy differences (such as tuition fees, free personal care, and prescription charges) – but not produce new ones such as in social security entitlement. </p>
<p>The difference mainly boils down to voters in Scotland being far more likely to elect parties that appear more left wing than their Westminster counterparts. Previous research <a href="http://www.palgrave.com/page/detail/scottish-politics-/?K=9780230390461">has found that</a> Scots are more likely to define themselves as working class than their English counterparts, and that a demand for greater powers is often more to do with a desire for self-determination than to make different policies. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89673/original/image-20150724-8457-1g1pdwv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89673/original/image-20150724-8457-1g1pdwv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89673/original/image-20150724-8457-1g1pdwv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89673/original/image-20150724-8457-1g1pdwv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89673/original/image-20150724-8457-1g1pdwv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89673/original/image-20150724-8457-1g1pdwv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89673/original/image-20150724-8457-1g1pdwv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89673/original/image-20150724-8457-1g1pdwv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not in most people’s opinion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimeda</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. The SNP used to be tiny</h2>
<p>If you are enjoying your formative years just now you may not appreciate just how weird it is to see the SNP become the dominant force in local, Scottish parliament and Westminster elections. Look at how many Westminster seats were won by the SNP in general elections since 1945: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7, 11, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 5, 6, 6, 56. It won more in 2015 than it won in all of those other elections put together.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89674/original/image-20150724-8442-bmuus0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89674/original/image-20150724-8442-bmuus0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89674/original/image-20150724-8442-bmuus0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89674/original/image-20150724-8442-bmuus0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89674/original/image-20150724-8442-bmuus0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89674/original/image-20150724-8442-bmuus0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89674/original/image-20150724-8442-bmuus0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89674/original/image-20150724-8442-bmuus0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘It’s no how big ye are…’</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The same goes for membership. It <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/boost-for-snp-as-membership-hits-100-000-mark-1-3725308">might be</a> more than 100,000 now, <a href="https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2014/09/23/a-surge-of-snp-support-what-does-it-mean/">but</a> in 2003 it was less than 10,000. The irony for Scottish Labour is that, although it has long seen the SNP as its powerful enemy, and a key Labour figure <a href="http://scottishreview.net/GeorgeRobertson231.shtml">famously described</a> devolution’s ability to “kill nationalism stone dead”, the SNP only truly became an electoral force when it could benefit from the Scottish parliament’s <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/visitandlearn/Education/16285.aspx">more proportional electoral system</a> and use it as a platform from 1999. </p>
<p>It is hard to see how there could have been a referendum without that platform, not to mention the fact that the SNP was able to form a majority Scottish government (though the system <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/scottish-independence-no-matter-how-scotland-votes-alex-salmond-will-be-winner-1464886">was designed</a> by Labour to make this virtually impossible). </p>
<h2>3. Labour rescued the Tories in Scotland</h2>
<p>The second-most grateful party to Labour in Scotland should be the Conservative party, which benefited from the very thing <a href="http://www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/cgi-bin/indexer?product=9780719095566">it opposed</a>. The Scottish parliament’s more proportional system allows the Tories to translate about 15%-17% of the Scottish vote into roughly that amount of Scottish parliament seats. In Westminster this level of support in Scotland gets the party one MP (or between 1997 and 2001, <a href="http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/features/would-the-tories-surrender-scotland-devolution-independence-referendum-salmond-cameron-snp">one fewer</a> than that). </p>
<p>Ruth Davidson, the kick-boxing Scottish Conservative leader and former BBC journalist was herself elected to the Scottish parliament through the regional list rather than by winning a seat. Nevertheless she <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gz-MJYKPk">made clear</a> during the leaders debates for this year’s election that she doesn’t believe in proportional representation. </p>
<p>Paradoxically the SNP loudly makes the case for proportional representation at UK elections, even though it would have gained far fewer seats had such a system existed this year. More curiously still, a good handful of those would have gone to the Tories. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89675/original/image-20150724-8453-1ohr8g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89675/original/image-20150724-8453-1ohr8g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89675/original/image-20150724-8453-1ohr8g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89675/original/image-20150724-8453-1ohr8g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89675/original/image-20150724-8453-1ohr8g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89675/original/image-20150724-8453-1ohr8g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89675/original/image-20150724-8453-1ohr8g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89675/original/image-20150724-8453-1ohr8g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">First past the post diehard: Ruth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mrgarethm/15195358048/in/photolist-p9LbxS">mrgarethm</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Tories were once bigger than SNP is today</h2>
<p>The only party to have commanded a majority of the Scottish vote in a post-war UK election is the Conservative party: 50.1% <a href="http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/the-myth-of-anti-tory-scotland/15855#.VbJHPCSJklI">in 1955</a>. Anthony Eden had just taken over from Winston Churchill as prime minister, and was still months away from the Suez crisis. </p>
<p>The Tory victory that year in Scotland translated into just over half of the Scottish seats. This is more than even the SNP managed in 2015 (50.0%), which translated into 56 of 59. And in spite of the Thatcher years, the Conservatives pretty much managed to remain Scotland’s second-most successful party in Westminster until it all went spectacularly wrong from 1997.</p>
<h2>5. SNP’s chief spin doctor is ex-Daily Mail </h2>
<p>You might be tempted to think that the Daily Mail hates the SNP and all that it stands for. Choice headlines include: <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3122537/Scottish-homeowners-fleeing-England-escape-SNP-bullying-nationalists-create-divided-xenophobic-country.html">Scottish homeowners are fleeing to England to escape the SNP as ‘bullying’ nationalists create ‘divided and xenophobic’ country</a>; <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2982046/The-terrifying-prospect-Scots-ruling-England-real-MAX-HASTINGS-nightmare-scenario-facing-Britain-Election.html">The terrifying prospect of the Scots ruling England is now all too real</a>; and <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3084815/Let-Scots-sail-doomed-adventure-ll-bust-come-begging.html">Let the Scots sail off on another doomed adventure. They’ll go bust again - and come back begging</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89677/original/image-20150724-8470-n2uerm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89677/original/image-20150724-8470-n2uerm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89677/original/image-20150724-8470-n2uerm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89677/original/image-20150724-8470-n2uerm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89677/original/image-20150724-8470-n2uerm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89677/original/image-20150724-8470-n2uerm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1045&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89677/original/image-20150724-8470-n2uerm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1045&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89677/original/image-20150724-8470-n2uerm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1045&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gotta love it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/november5/6549513061/in/photolist-aYKY3Z-5yTdc3-dsGThR-q7QFh3-aFSMs2-r7U4R3-ohuWjb-6WGC9x-p2wZYi-e2wkxE-b6JCaR-ebHnPB-nr27QP-9TfRoj-6ibLH9-n274V3-e69KcN-e646Cx-e69JdE-e6483R-e69KGL-e648XM-58SJAZ-ebwbZ7-5yTiKW-eaj7uC-eaj7uJ-eaj7vs-eaj7uS-eaj7uU-eadrQa-eaj7v5-eaj7vw-eeZfWo-eeZcj5-5ySUxj-pC6YNZ-oXNjwz-5ySFGd-daavkw-5ySGKJ-oW7xp1-oW7a9Z-oW7aqR-oW89aa-7GomPj-pvzn4i-tPsfp-6iesp1-6ies6h">Byzantine_K</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is fairly polite rhetoric compared to the descriptions of Daily Mail journalists by many independence supporters. Yet the party and this bastion of Middle England also have a symbiotic relationship, and the ties between the SNP and their most critical newspapers are closer than you might think – as summed up by the SNP promoting a former Scottish political editor at the Scottish Daily Mail to head of communications. Stuart Nicolson’s position might explain why the <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758101/Revealed-The-secretive-SNP-chieftains-helping-Alex-Salmond-break-Union.html">Mail’s write-up</a> of SNP special advisers just before the independence referendum was fairly tame compared to its usual standards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cairney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Haggis and Irn Bru have long since been usurped by politics as the greatest Scottish peculiarity. Here’s a bunch of nuggets on that subject that are all too often overlooked.Paul Cairney, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/419912015-05-19T05:11:17Z2015-05-19T05:11:17ZUnite’s break with Labour: bluff, bluster and empty threats<p>Many on the Labour left are keen to point out that the party owes its existence to the trade union movement. Likewise, the unions do their best to make sure Labour doesn’t forget its heritage. Traditionally, the unions have had a great deal of say in the election of the party leader. But the current contest has ignited debate about the unions’ role in Labour’s future, after Unite union leader <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32777771">Len McCluskey said</a> that his organisation would “rethink” its relationship with the party, unless it could represent “the voice of organised labour”. </p>
<p>The curious thing about Ed Miliband’s leadership was his redefinition of Labour’s relationship with the unions. The left-leaning Miliband was propelled into office with their help, after Unite orchestrated his election over his Blairite brother, David. Miliband went on to shift Labour further to the left than it had been for years, almost as a sop to the unions. Unfortunately, the May 7 election proved that “Project Miliband” – which rejected Blairism and the centre ground – has put Labour back years. </p>
<p>Now that <a href="https://theconversation.com/milibandism-crushed-at-the-polls-but-ed-doomed-from-the-start-41525">Miliband has resigned</a>, the main imperative for the Labour party is to elect a new leader. McCluskey told the BBC’s John Pienaar that “it is essential that the correct leader emerges”. The unions would prefer a short, sharp leadership contest as that would favour Andy Burnham, their preferred candidate. But acting Labour leader Harriet Harman has scuppered that dream with a longer contest, culminating with the party conference in September. </p>
<p>It’s true that there would be little point in electing a new leader until the party has done some soul-searching and re-established itself. The leader needs something tangible to lead. But when McCluskey called for a debate about the direction in which labour needs to go, there was no doubt that he meant a shift to the left. Even so, much of McCluskey’s tirade can be seen as bluff, bluster, and empty threats. Indeed, he has already made <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/len-mccluskey-backtracks-on-unite-labour-comments-1-3776085">an attempt to backtrack</a> on his comments, saying that the union has “no plans to disaffiliate from Labour”.</p>
<p>Whether they like it or not, the unions – while having an important role – have become detached from reality. David Miliband was right <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/11/david-miliband-criticises-brother-ed-labour-blairite">when he said</a> that Labour lost the election because they failed to be the party of aspiration and inclusiveness. Yet the unions still cling to yesterday’s working class rhetoric, despite having less power in the workplace, because of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/313768/bis-14-p77-trade-union-membership-statistical-bulletin-2013.pdf">stagnant membership</a>. Likewise, they have less influence over government, because they speak yesterday’s language.</p>
<h2>One member, one vote</h2>
<p>Last year, Miliband also attempted to mitigate the unions’ influence, by changing the leadership election rules. He introduced the one member, one vote (OMOV) system, under which every member – whether an affiliate or full member – gets an equal vote. The argument was that, in the wake of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25279685">Falkirk by-election scandal</a>, OMOV would remove the block vote, giving the unions back to their members.</p>
<p>As a result of these changes, the unions have seen their collective power swept away. But if they are able to mobilise their members, they could be back in business. The problem for the unions is that they were caught napping. So confident were they that Labour would oust the Tories from government that, with the exception of Unison, they failed to encourage individual union members to join the party. </p>
<p>If they are successful in getting union members to sign up, it could give them more influence over who leads the party than they have ever had. There are around 4m members of Labour-affiliated unions and <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4438615.ece">roughly 221,000 other party members</a>. If the unions can get just 20% to affiliate and vote for their preferred leader, they will be calling the shots. </p>
<p>The unions may be optimistic but there will be a number of worried people in the Labour ranks. They know that a significant shift to the left could go against Labour at the polls in 2020. This is something the unions seem to be ignoring. There is no point in foisting a leader on the party who cannot win the next election. The main concern for Labour must be the prospect of losing the £11m donated by the unions last year. Without that they would find it difficult to operate, unless they can attract funding from business – and that wouldn’t go down well with the unions. </p>
<p>It could be that Miliband was right all along. The new rules could well ensure that the Labour leader is the choice of the membership, rather than that of the union leadership.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41991/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alf Crossman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Len McCluskey needs to snap back to reality, if he wants to see Labour in government.Alf Crossman, Senior Lecturer in Industrial Relations and HRM, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/419462015-05-16T19:33:45Z2015-05-16T19:33:45ZJim Murphy’s belief he could survive the Jockalypse was always a delusion<p>He fought to the last, taking it all the way to a vote of confidence from Scottish Labour’s National Executive. And even though he won that, it was too close to be anything less than a pyrrhic victory. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f0c8050-fbea-11e4-ad3f-00144feabdc0.html">Jim Murphy will depart his post</a> in June. It seemed almost inevitable to many. A leader without a seat in any legislature? A leader whose own constituency voters had decided to cast him aside? Staying became harder by the day and certainly more divisive, and any party that remains divided after an election result, certainly one <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/scotland">of this magnitude</a>, runs the real risk of repeating history, very quickly.</p>
<p>Murphy resigned in true Blairite fashion, stating that he will submit a plan at the exact time of his official resignation in June to reform Scottish Labour – which in his resignation speech, he called one of the least reformed sections of the Labour movement. He also had a good hard swipe at the unions, and especially Unite leader Len McCluskey. </p>
<p>Never really his friends, union leaders in Scotland and especially Unite had been calling for Murphy’s head since the election defeat, blaming the whole debacle on Scottish Labour’s campaign. These were not the only voices calling for Murphy’s head; several MSPs who resigned from his Scottish shadow cabinet <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11600987/Pressure-grows-on-Jim-Murphy-to-resign-as-two-MSPs-call-for-his-head.html">had stated</a> that he must resign. And several recent ex-Scottish Labour MPs joined the fray early, <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/election-2015-jim-murphy-faces-5658098">especially Ian Davidson</a>, who called for Murphy’s resignation a few hours after the polls closed on election night.</p>
<h2>Downfall</h2>
<p>Two weeks ago I <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-things-labour-can-do-to-win-back-scotland-after-may-7-41043">wrote about</a> what Scottish Labour would have to do in the future, after the election polls began to say that the SNP could pick up all the Scottish seats. Whatever happened to polling across the rest of the UK, the ones looking at Scotland were proven right after the SNP gained 56 out of the 59 Scottish seats. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3072723/Ed-Miliband-resign-leading-Labour-disastrous-election-defeat.html">Ed Miliband quit</a> the day after the vote, of course, taking what many saw as the honourable route. In Scotland though, it has been another story entirely. While Miliband presided over a UK-wide party that actually <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results">gained votes</a>, Murphy presided over the almost total wipe-out of Scottish Labour at Westminster. He saw his support decline to 24.3%, while the SNP gained one out of every two votes cast in Scotland. </p>
<p>Furthermore, he was not the sole surviving Labour MP in Scotland. He did not manage to hold to his seat in Renfrewshire, but he tried, almost desperately it seems, to hold on to his position when to many it seemed untenable. I was asked on election night, as the “<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-conservatives-mocked-online-over-boris-johnsons-claim-of-snp-jockalypse-10228433.html">Jockalypse</a>” unfolded, whether Murphy would throw himself on his sword. I said if he didn’t then there were plenty of people who would probably throw him in the general direction of it. </p>
<p>So it proved to be. Yet at the same time, he is doing it in a slightly different fashion. Unlike Labour at the UK level, which has a few years to sort things out, Scotland has a parliamentary election in less than 12 months, and Murphy is very aware of this. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81939/original/image-20150516-25400-1d1b5qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81939/original/image-20150516-25400-1d1b5qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81939/original/image-20150516-25400-1d1b5qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81939/original/image-20150516-25400-1d1b5qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81939/original/image-20150516-25400-1d1b5qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81939/original/image-20150516-25400-1d1b5qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81939/original/image-20150516-25400-1d1b5qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81939/original/image-20150516-25400-1d1b5qt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Which came first, the Murphy or the egg?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/trixta/14930295197/in/photolist-oKkEAH-7xpPur-oAPZeB-qHNQzH-q6Ly1Q-7KdrUj-7KdrUm-aFPwCv-aqwpqj-q7V1wX-8DUf3K-8DUemv-8DXmE5-8DUevg-8DUeUR-aEAdDR-6untL7-dxfQH5-dxao24-dxanKK-dxanra-dxfQgE-dxanUD-dxanmp-dxanFP-dxfQAf-dxangF-dxfQoW-dxanzT-dxance-7G9xEp-bZiM2Y-baiwN6-9Pkoau-89Zotb-656dsF-aEA7bp-7RhRdX-sdriKK-pd9YtS-ojBCxz-oAQAjr-oVGFtU-2ZBac3-7FTJVw-7FTJVu-7FTJVs-efJ3Ge-pdbZui-oVGPXg">Richard</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>He is not just quitting and letting the party take an introspective look at itself while conducting a leadership battle. He is calling for change, calling for one member one vote, and leaving Scottish Labour with a “legacy” document, a plan to change the party. </p>
<p>It must face up to the new reality, where the SNP strides before all, capturing the anti-austerity, progressive mantle – a mantle that Scottish Labour so desperately wants to regain as its own. Perhaps with a new leader it can try. And good luck to whoever that individual is, because as anyone who has witnessed the rise and rise of the SNP over the past few years can tell you, they are going to need it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41946/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Leith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Scottish Labour leader’s resignation was inevitable. You can’t lose your seat and your entire Scottish beach head and seriously argue to the contrary.Murray Leith, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of the West of ScotlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/414142015-05-07T22:40:25Z2015-05-07T22:40:25ZElection 2015: Conservatives gain in England, SNP rampant across Scotland – experts react<p>Results appear to be backing an <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32633099">exit poll</a> for the 2015 UK election that predicted a better than expected performance for the Conservative Party. It suggested the Tories will win 316 seats – not far short to the 326 seats needed for a majority. Meanwhile, Labour has gone backwards, falling to a predicted 239 (down from 256); the SNP has made record gains in Scotland, winning 56 seats; and the Liberal Democrats are in freefall.</p>
<p>Our expert panel is on hand to explain what it all means.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Victoria Honeyman, Lecturer in British Politics at the University of Leeds</strong></p>
<p>It’s been an extraordinary night, largely because the exit polls had thrown absolutely everybody. Comres, IPSOS, YouGov and co had all said it would be very close. As soon as the exit polls came out it threw everything into flux. But there was no reason to doubt them – the 2010 exit polls were very accurate and the same people were involved this time around.</p>
<p>The Lib Dems saw it coming, but Labour certainly didn’t. In space of eight hours Labour supporters have gone from thinking their man would be in Downing St to wondering who their next leader is. It would be very surprising if Ed Miliband doesn’t now resign and yet this isn’t really his fault. Miliband was faced with a problem all party leaders have in common with football managers: they’re expected to gain success quickly. Leaders that can’t win elections know their time is up. </p>
<p>Miliband had two issues. Whether it was the famous bacon sandwich or because he looks like Wallace from Wallace & Grommit, the electorate never warmed to him as a leader.</p>
<p>He also tried to move away from New Labour rhetoric. Tony Blair said if you created wealth you could level a country up. Blair’s aide Peter Mandelson famously said he was “intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich as long as they pay their taxes”. </p>
<p>Miliband said he did care how rich you get. He wanted to return Labour to different ideology, creating a position where you rebalance society, and improve things for core members of society. But the public didn’t think he was selling a message they could get on board with. </p>
<p>Nick Clegg has hinted he may be stand down, but most predicted this anyway. An awful lot of his party’s old guard is also gone – people who would have possibly challenged him such as Ed Davey, Jo Swinson or Danny Alexander. This really does leave the party in a tricky position as there is such a small group of potential leaders left. </p>
<p>The Lib Dems are no longer the third party – that’s the SNP, by quite a margin. A new leader will help but the party really needs a totally different strategy. Moving into government for the first time is very difficult process for any party as they go from being able to promise anything to a position of being practical. Seen historically, parties tend to find it tough – just look at Labour in the 1920s. The Lib Dems must regroup and that means rebuilding from the grassroots. This is what built their support in the 1990s as the party went from occasional victories in local politics, to running councils, to winning more MPs, and eventually the big breakthrough in Westminster.</p>
<p>The SNP had a number of things going for them. First Alex Salmond was no longer their leader. This had a massive impact. Salmond was a “Marmite figure” – you either loved him or you hated him. Nicola Sturgeon is very astute, and much more popular. </p>
<p>The party was also selling an easy anti-austerity message, very popular with voters tired of spending cuts. No one wants to be in the position of selling austerity. The SNP also hooked onto the idea that Scottish Labour was too integrated with its Westminster counterparts. </p>
<p>There is a natural tendency to believe SNP voters all support independence. But many SNP supporters simply want MPs who will go to Westminster and fight to get the best deal for Scotland, which they believe Scottish Labour MPs couldn’t do. That is their job after all; to do the best for Scotland. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Rainbow Murray, Reader in Politics at Queen Mary University of London</strong></p>
<p>Labour is normally the best party for women so the Tories have gained at women’s expense. Austerity has hit women hardest because women are the primary beneficiaries of welfare services and benefits that got cut during austerity. Many of the public sector workers who got laid off were women. The Tory manifesto promised more cuts including more cuts to benefits and more emphasis on the Big Society, which asks volunteers, who are usually women, to take over services that used to be provided by the state.</p>
<p>Nicola Sturgeon is one woman who has been very successful with SNP making huge gains in Scotland. There’s a dual effect – she has been an extremely successful leader and there is also a legacy from the independence referendum. The Scottish people decided not to secede from the Union but have asserted their national identity by voting for the SNP in the majority of cases. So the next parliament is going to be very interesting – we’ll have a referendum on Europe and we may well have another referendum on Scotland.</p>
<p>The story that’s rocking academia is that the opinion polls were so far off in their prediction. Congratulations must go to the exit poll team. When they announced their poll at 10pm, many people said they were wrong but at 6am it looks like they were accurate. How did every other pollster get it so wrong? One phenomenon put forward as an explanation is “shy Tories” who won’t admit to voting Conservative and yet do. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Eric Shaw, Senior Lecturer in Politics at University of Stirling</strong></p>
<p>Labour has been contracting in Scotland for a while. There has been a certain reluctance to address trends which were eating away at the party’s strength, and have accelerated largely because of the referendum. Despite the warning, the party was caught unaware. No-one anticipated the Tsunami.</p>
<p>On television, commentators like Peter Kellner and Andrew Marr were quick to advise that Labour return to the “successful” Blairite New Labour formula with a stronger pro-business orientation, a distancing from the unions and working-class voters and an alignment with the (largely mythical) Middle England.</p>
<p>The calculation of New Labour strategists was that working-class voters had nowhere else to go so they could be largely ignored. But many abstained, and in Scotland they had another option – voting for the SNP, which many have taken in hordes. </p>
<p>There are no quick answers for the party in Scotland because the problems it faces are fundamental. Modifying policy won’t do, because most people take no interest in policy detail. What matters are question of purpose, identity and belonging; and of representation. It means Scottish Labour transforming itself into a movement, a cause and a vocation as well as an election-winning machine.</p>
<p>If the party was to make three changes in Scotland, I would suggest the following. First a radical alteration of the party’s relationship with the UK party, for example becoming an independent party but one affiliated to the British party. This could be along the lines of the relationship between the Bavarian CSU (which operates only in Bavaria) and the larger CDU which operates in the rest of Germany. The CSU is independent but in permanent alliance with the Christian Democrats. </p>
<p>Second, the party should launch a very wide-ranging and independent enquiry into what went wrong, talking to activists, officials and candidates, the unions, academic researchers and all interested bodies. Its tasks would include analysing social trends, shifts in cultural and socioeconomic patterns and motivations guiding voter decisions.</p>
<p>Most important of all, the party has to give deep thought to some absolutely basic issues. What do we exist for? What is the role of the party? What are the values and visions we wish to embed in social organisation? What do we really stand for – is there a Labour “soul”?</p>
<p>And it must above all avoid the bland, anodyne and banal platitudes in which New Labour in particular specialised, such as “opportunities for all”, “widening social justice”, “a more aspirational society” and “One Nation Labour”: all motherhood and apple pie. All in all, it will be a job that should take a while.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Stuart Wilks-Heeg, Head of Politics at University of Liverpool</strong></p>
<p>Conservative Esther McVey has lost the seat of Wirral West to Labour candidate Margaret Greenwood. There are several constituencies in the north west where Labour has increased its majority or vote share, but with the exception of Wirral West, this follows a pattern seen elsewhere of Labour gaining seats from the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>I had thought four Lib Dems would hold on in the north west but it could be fewer than that. We’ve seen some really big vote shares for UKIP, which has been getting double-digit vote shares almost everywhere in the north west and the party will be very well placed to challenge Labour in the next general election.</p>
<p>UKIP is not going to make the kind of gains that its candidates hoped for on the east coast. I think UKIP has realised that in places like the north west where the Conservatives were long ago displaced as a serious contender, and with the squeeze on the Lib Dems over the past five yers, the opportunity is there to take on Labour. That’s a vacuum they are capable of filling in 2020.</p>
<p>The Lib Dems are being punished for some of the decisions they made. The decision on tution fees was catastrophic and led to a decline in their poll rating from which they’ve never recovered. This is a shocking result. People like Vince Cable losing their seats throws the party into crisis to an extent that no-one thought possible.</p>
<p>If there are only ten Lib Dem MPs left, and that’s what could be needed for the Conservatives to form a coalition government, then Nick Clegg and his colleagues face a massive decison. The prospect of being locked into another coalition for five years would destroy the party. Whatever they do they need to rebuild. It took them decades to build up to their 57 seats in 2010 and now they’ve been pushed back to where they were in the 70s and perhaps worse. They’ve got a huge task to rebuild from here – it’s going to be really tough.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Craig McAngus, Research Fellow at the University of Stirling</strong></p>
<p>The incredible thing about these results is that it now looks as though the polls under-predicted what would happen in Scotland. We may well be looking at a clean sweep of seats and a share well in excess of 50%. In terms of what this means for a second referendum, it goes back to the two traditional wings of the SNP: do you take the fundamentalist approach and push for a new poll quickly or do you go with the gradualists and gradually build up to it? </p>
<p>If there had been a Labour government, it would have been much more suited to the gradualist argument. But because the SNP will be in opposition, the emphasis will switch much more to the Scottish parliamentary party, and its ability to affect progress towards independence. With the SNP as part of the opposition, it’ll have to act in reaction to what the UK government does as opposed to being in a position to affect what it does.</p>
<p>The legitimacy question in Scotland is going to be even worse than the darkest days of Thatcher. It will mean that any action by the UK government that materially affects big issues like the constitution, or welfare, or economic policy could become the sort of change that Nicola Sturgeon has repeatedly said might be grounds for a second referendum. This will be much more the case than if the SNP was backing a minority Labour government.</p>
<p>Then of course there is the EU referendum, which now looks more likely than the polls suggested. If the UK votes to leave but Scotland votes to stay, that is certainly seen as the sort of material change that Sturgeon had in mind.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Peter Lynch, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Stirling</strong></p>
<p>In Scotland, it looks like the exit poll is proving completely accurate. When you see results like Douglas Alexander’s in Paisley, losing by 5,000 seats, it’s not even close.</p>
<p>It was thought that Labour would scrape home in some of these seats with a couple of hundred votes, but the party is getting buried. It’s not even like a normal landslide, where the other parties still get to keep seats. The only scuttlebutt looks to be the Labour seat of Edinburgh South. If it wins there, it will be through tactical voting. </p>
<p>I was quite sceptical about this. Even this week I thought the SNP would win 30 or maybe 40 seats. I have always been a first-past-the-post sceptic. It was very tough for the SNP in the Scottish election in 2007, and even in 2011. It was having to overturn majorities in places where the people had voted Labour or Lib Dem for many years. And it was always particularly rubbish in Westminster elections. Until recently, the SNP even struggled to get its activists to take those elections seriously.</p>
<p>The big question is the implications of another Tory-dominated government. Of course the Tory offer to Scotland, with input from the other parties, is contained in the proposals from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-new-powers-for-scotland-really-be-delivered-within-promised-timescale-33960">Smith Commission</a>.</p>
<p>No doubt there will now be discussions between the SNP and the Tories about what more might be included. The tenor is likely to be that the SNP will be told that it can have more powers, such as in welfare, but it will have to finance them from within Scotland. There was a potential deal between the coalition and the Scottish government prior to the Scotland Act on the basis that there would not be a referendum. Strangely we are now more or less back to that position. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Louise Thompson, Lecturer in British Politics at University of Surrey</strong></p>
<p>As the results are now beginning to flood in we are seeing the sheer scale of change in this election. We all knew we would see massive SNP gains in Scotland and that the UKIP vote would be strong, but seeing the size of the swing to Sturgeon’s SNP in the latest results is astonishing.</p>
<p>For such a long time British politics has felt predictable to voters in safe seats and voting at all has felt pointless, but now we are seeing big political figures losing their seats as Scotland turns from red to yellow. Whatever the outcome, the people of Scotland certainly won’t be complaining that their votes don’t count. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Jennifer Thomson, PhD Candidate, School of Politics and International Relations, Queen Mary University of London</strong></p>
<p>An interesting night for the DUP: they have retained seven of their seats, gained one more, in East Belfast, while losing South Antrim to the UUP. Naomi Long, Alliance, won East Belfast in 2010. This was a bitter defeat for the DUP, and winning it back was key for them this time around. Gavin Robinson now represents the seat for the DUP.</p>
<p>The UUP are back at Westminster with one representative after their candidate Danny Knahan beat the DUP incumbent Willie McCrea in a shock result. Nonetheless, with 8 seats the DUP will now probably be the fifth largest party in Westminster. </p>
<p>The party were outspoken in the run-up to the election. They said they would be open to a deal with either of the two main parties on the basis of two key conditions: the removal of the bedroom tax and a referendum on EU membership. A deal with the Conservatives has always appeared more likely, and they may potentially be in line to form a coalition or prop up a minority government.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science at Cardiff University</strong></p>
<p>In Wales, the Conservatives look set to have their most seats since the height of Thatcherism in 1983, while it’s a disaster for the Lib Dems. The Tories have won seats in the more Anglicised parts of Wales, such as Brecon & Radnorshire along the border and Vale of Clywd, near to north-west England. The party has the same appeal in these areas as it does in rural England.</p>
<p>Plaid Cymru’s vote share has gone up a bit, and it has done ok in terms of holding onto existing seats. However it looks like it’s missed out on target seats and will score fewer Welsh votes than UKIP. Given the higher-profile the party enjoyed thanks to Leanne Wood’s participation in the debates this has to count as a failure.</p>
<p>Plaid ran a decent campaign but has been a weaker party than the SNP for at least a decade – and Wales didn’t have a referendum to rally people behind the idea of independence.</p>
<p>The party tried to get “fair funding for Wales” – parity with Scotland – onto the agenda but it doesn’t seem to have worked. The big issues were largely the same as elsewhere: the economy, jobs, health and immigration.</p>
<p>Despite its relative failures, Labour should remain Wales’s biggest party in terms of both votes and seats, for the 20th election in a row. But this won’t be reflected in Westminster, where the Conservatives look set to run the government. In the 1980s this split between Wales and Westminster stirred up nationalism which led to devolution a decade later. We won’t see anything as dramatic this time around, but Labour badly needs to put things back together before Welsh assembly elections next year.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Sophie Whiting, Lecturer in the Department of Politics at University of Liverpool</strong></p>
<p>Few of Northern Ireland’s 18 seats were predicted to change hands during this general election campaign. East Belfast however has been one of the key battlegrounds during the 2015 campaign.</p>
<p>Rewind to 2010 and the shock of the general election in Northern Ireland was Peter Robinson, leader of the DUP and First Minister, loosing his seat in East Belfast, a seat he had held since 1979. With a majority of more than 1,500 votes, Naomi Long gave the Alliance Party their first seat in Westminster.</p>
<p>In 2015 the DUP threw everything they could at recapturing East Belfast, including a fresh faced parliamentary candidate, Gavin Robinson (no relation to Peter) and agreeing to an electoral pact with the Ulster Unionist Party. The UUP agreed to step aside in East and North Belfast to increase the chances of a DUP win whilst the DUP stood aside in two other constituencies – and it paid off.</p>
<p>A win in East Belfast for the DUP by more than 2,500 votes has helped maintain DUP hopes for returning a sizeable block of MPs to Westminster. After losing South Antrim to the UUP, East Belfast was even more important for the DUP if they wanted play a decisive role at Westminster. The party have been clear that they would be happy to support either a Labour or Conservative minority government under certain conditions. For the DUP, East Belfast is a step towards more power and influence in Westminster politics.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Jonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics at University of Liverpool</strong></p>
<p>If the Conservatives come up short of a majority, and get 316 seats as the exit poll suggests, then they could be carried over the line and into government by a confidence and supply deal with the DUP’s eight predicted MPs, and the UUP’s new MP. These nine extra seats could take the Conservatives past the 323 seats they realistically need. DUP members prefer the Conservatives to Labour at a ratio of seven to one, and rank 8/10 on a scale toward the right of the political spectrum, which makes them natural bedfellows for the Conservatives. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Natural bedfellows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jonathan Tonge</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This would be a good thing for the Conservatives – the DUP are a disciplined party: if they say they’re going to work with the Conservatives, then they will. Realistically, the Liberal Democrats are not going to be keen to do another deal, given the damage the coalition has done to them for this election. In contrast, a deal with the Conservatives would be unlikely to damage the DUP in Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>When it comes to coalition negotiations, the first demand on the table will be more money for Northern Ireland. A figure of £1 billion has been floated, but this is not the official position of the party. The DUP support more money on defence, and are keen to see the UK reach the 2% NATO target on defence spending. They also support a referendum on EU membership and tougher immigration controls. </p>
<p>The only sticking point might be the bedroom tax – the DUP do not support the tax and would like to see it scrapped across the UK. The DUP are right wing in a lot of ways, particularly on constitutional issues, but they have a strong working class support base. So there might be arguments about the bedroom tax, but it’s unlikely to be a dealbreaker. </p>
<p>Another consideration is that the DUP would be looking for guarantees to secure Northern Ireland’s devolved power on matters such as same sex marriage and abortion – the latter is almost illegal in Northern Ireland. There would be pressure from within the UK – and to some extent from within Northern Ireland – for more liberal laws, but the DUP would be looking for assurances that these matters would remain devolved. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Michael Saward, Professor in Politics at the University of Warwick</strong></p>
<p>The big story of the night is Scotland. I don’t know if you can have a revolution by electoral means these days but if you can, this is as close as it gets. </p>
<p>With the SNP predicted to win almost all of Scotland’s 59 seats and with Alex Salmond in Westminster, a second independence referendum certainly looks a few years closer than it did yesterday. Given Nicola Sturgeon’s insistence that this was not a vote about independence, Salmond will have to play it carefully politically but a complete lack of Scottish representation in the UK government would only add more pressure for a referendum.</p>
<p>The second biggest story is the EU referendum. The certainty of a vote on UK membership has firmed up and there will be pressure to hold the vote in the earlier half of the next parliament.</p>
<p>If the Conservatives come away with anything above 210 sets, the most likely outcome is a Conservative minority government. The right of the party will not want to team up with the Liberal Democrats again and would most likely prefer an informal arrangement with the DUP. A Conservative minority government could lose a vote or two in the House of Commons but could continue with the confidence of the House.</p>
<p>The exit poll is probably right, which means Paddy Ashdown will have to eat some sort of hat. I think he knows that. And opinion pollsters will have to re-examine their navels. They had thought they had resolved their biggest issues a few years ago but they are going to have to have a rethink. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Neil Matthews, Research Fellow, School of Politics, International Studies and Philosophy at Queen’s University Belfast</strong></p>
<p>Declarations are trickling in across Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies – and set against the “electoral tsunami” occurring in Scotland, events across the Irish Sea might appear rather dull. That said there has been one shock in the form of the UUP’s Danny Kinihan ousting the DUP in South Antrim. This sees a return for the UUP to the green benches of Westminster.</p>
<p>Elsewhere, as widely anticipated, the DUP has held its seats in Lagan Valley, North Antrim, Strangford and Upper Bann – indications are that it will also record a gain in East Belfast and see Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds, returned in North Belfast.</p>
<p>The SDLP has succeeded in Foyle and is polling well in its two other strongholds of South Belfast and South Down. It is likely then that the party will retain its compliment of three seats.</p>
<p>For Sinn Fein there is only one result to report – comfortably returning an MP in West Tyrone.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Catherine Happer, Research Associate at the Glasgow University Media Group</strong></p>
<p>So far the TV coverage has been coloured by the exit polls, which have genuinely astounded people. Because the politicians all prepare what they are going to say, it’s made them particularly cautious, stilted and unwilling to talk about hypotheticals. They are stuck in a bubble of disbelief. It could have been a very exciting night, but we have become bound by a sense of interviewees not being able to take this seriously yet. </p>
<p>My moment of the night so far would be Paddy Ashdown saying he would eat his hat if the Lib Dem forecast of 10 seats came true. He simply refused to believe the polls. Then he said a bit later that he would eat his hat if it was made of marzipan. By the end of the night, he’ll probably be saying, “bring the hat over here”. </p>
<p>More broadly, the influence of the press is one of the big stories of the night. There was much discussion prior to the exit polls that had Miliband managed to make it into office, it would have been a historic win because he would have done so without much press support. Now we are back to the old picture of “It Was The Sun Wot Won It”. </p>
<p>Obviously we saw very strong press backing for the Conservatives and scaremongering about Ed Miliband. Some of it has been vile, not over his policies but about how he eats a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-labour-mail-telegraph-election">bacon sandwich</a> or <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11575631/Watch-Ed-Miliband-trips-off-the-stage-following-Question-Time-leaders-special.html">tripping</a> over the stage on BBC Question Time. The other big angle has been the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/09/tory-election-poster-ed-miliband-pocket-snp-alex-salmond">demonisation of the SNP</a>, of course. </p>
<p>The jury is still out on the impact of the TV debates. They probably gave Miliband a chance to represent himself in a more three-dimensional light. But on television, the press were able to very much narrow the parameters of the debate, forcing the focus on the deficit, Labour’s record in office and so forth. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Charles Lees, Professor of Politics at the University of Bath</strong></p>
<p>If the exit poll is accurate and the Conservatives are able to govern alone, the Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland could well be over within a decade.</p>
<p>A minority Tory government will not only have to manage a hostile House of Commons; it will also be at the mercy of its Eurosceptic backbenchers. David Cameron has pledged to hold a referendum on Europe but, under pressure from these backbenchers, the negotiations will be more difficult than they might have been. A sceptical and perhaps hostile EU will not be in a position to grant Cameron all he needs to please them.</p>
<p>If the UK as a whole (that means England) looks likely to leave the EU then the SNP will go to the country in the Scottish polls seeking a mandate to run a second referendum. In the current climate, it might well win. </p>
<p>Any Scottish exit from the UK, especially combined with a UK exit from the EU, would destabilise Northern Ireland in unforeseeable ways. Certainly, nationalists and republicans would want Northern Ireland to throw in its lot with the republic and remain in the EU. The Unionists would be torn between loyalty to the union, an instinctive affinity with the Scots, and also fears of commercial meltdown for a province with a fragile economy, that is reliant on trade with the south but now stranded outside the EU. </p>
<p>No-one can be sure how this would all end but you would have to be a supreme optimist to think it would end well. At the very least, a Constitutional Convention will be needed with a radical brief to think the unthinkable. The UK tradition of evolutionary change will no longer suffice.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>David Cutts, Reader in Political Science at the University of Bath</strong></p>
<p>It’s very unlikely that the exit poll is too far off. At most they may have over-egged it by about 20 seats for the Conservatives. </p>
<p>The exit polls are indicating that 15 or 20 Conservative seats have gone to Labour, which is just over a 1% swing. It suggests that Labour is doing better against the Conservatives in Labour strongholds, but in the marginals it is flatlining completely.</p>
<p>I would expect UKIP to do very well in Labour-held areas. Its strategy is to get as many second places as possible. The story is about Labour voters that feel Labour doesn’t represent them and see UKIP as a viable alternative. </p>
<p>It looks like UKIP will hold Clacton and win Thurrock because of support from Labour voters. The question will be what happens to them in places like Boston & Skegness, Great Yarmouth and of course Thanet South, where it looks like Nigel Farage might not win. In relation to the exit polls, the question for UKIP is how spread across the country its vote is. In reality we are expecting UKIP to take support from across the population. </p>
<p>With the Lib Dems, the same sort of logic could mean that they end up with rather more seats than the 10 that was forecast in the exit poll. It is possible that if it got less than a 6% vote in about 580 to 600 seats, it could mean it got over 30% in a good number of others. If they drop to 10 seats that would suggest capitulation in the Conservative-Lib Dem battlegrounds.</p>
<p>My estimate is that the SNP will win about 52 seats in Scotland. It would be wrong for the left in England to blame the SNP for Labour’s failure. If Labour was seeing swings of 4% or 5% in Labour-Conservative marginals, it would be looking at winning 40 or 50 seats in England and not just 15 or 20. Labour’s failure to take seats away from the Conservatives is really what will have stopped it from winning at the UK level. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>John Van Reenen, Director, Centre for Economic Performance and Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics</strong></p>
<p>If the polls are right the Conservatives have done much better than expected – they’d be in the driving seat. There seems no chance Labour could form a government.</p>
<p>A Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition seems the most likely option, and this will almost certainly mean a referendum on EU membership. This will be the main issue over the next few years – a Brexit could cause serious damage to the UK economy. Markets like stability, and the uncertainty could make the UK a less desirable destination for foreign direct investment.</p>
<p>Conservative economic plans may be tempered to some degree by the Lib Dems but the two aren’t all that far apart. Adjustments will be made through tough cuts to public spending rather than tax rises.</p>
<p>The past five years have been a pretty awful time for the UK economy so it’s surprising the economic narrative has been so positive. GDP per head is still <a href="http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea034_executive_summary.pdf">17% below</a> the long term expected level, and living standards are still down. </p>
<p>Over the past year however things have gone relatively well and people remember recent events more clearly – a triumph for Conservative and coalition strategy. Still, the 2.4% growth rate isn’t much more than the average over the 50 years before the financial crisis – you’d expect strong growth post-crisis but we haven’t seen it. From an economist’s perspective it has been a bad performance.</p>
<p>Labour should have done more to defend its own record though – the high deficit being due to the global financial crisis rather than mismanagement of public finances, for instance. Its strategy of appealing to the base with more regulation, rent control, price control and not reaching out to business was different from Blair’s “middle ground”. A stronger defence of its record probably wouldn’t have won them the election, but it should have reached out more to the middle.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Frances Amery, Lecturer in Politics at University of Bath</strong></p>
<p>Everyone is quite shocked at the moment. Somebody somewhere has screwed up, whether it is the pollsters or the exit polls.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/final-call-conservatives-and-labour-tied/">YouGov poll</a> aligns more with our expectations, so it’s interesting to see the BBC’s coverage hasn’t reported on it at all. Too early to give reasoned commentary. Wait and see.</p>
<p>If the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32633099">broadcasters’ exit poll</a> is indeed right then a Conservative minority government is the most likely outcome. Michael Gove and others claiming a “clear victory” would be right as there simply wouldn’t be enough anti-Tory votes to form a rainbow coalition. </p>
<p>It will be interesting to see what happens with a big SNP block though. Another independence referendum is certainly likely as the Conservatives have been so antagonistic towards Scottish voters. This raises constitutional questions about the future of the UK. We may well see some sort of reform on English votes for English laws (EVEL) – though in many cases it’s very hard to determine what is specifically an English issue.</p>
<p>I specialise in women’s issues. If the exit polls are correct, five more years of David Cameron in number 10 would not be a great thing at all for women. Austerity has been worse for women than men, and we’ll see further big welfare cuts. Very damaging for women in the UK.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frances Amery receives funding from the ESRC. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Happer receives funding from the Avatar Alliance Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Lees is affiliated with the Labour Party.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Cutts receives funding from the ESRC. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Shaw receives funding from the ESRC and the Carnegie Foundation, and is also a member of the Labour party.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Thomson receives funding from the ESRC. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Van Reenen receives funding from the ESRC. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Tonge has received funding from the ESRC for the 2010 and 2015 Northern Ireland Election Studies. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Matthews is a post-doctoral research fellow on the ESRC-funded Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2016 project. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Wilks-Heeg receives funding from the electoral commission and is chair of Democratic Audit.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig McAngus, Louise Thompson, Michael Saward, Peter Lynch, Rainbow Murray, Roger Awan-Scully, Sophie Whiting, and Victoria Honeyman do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Experts provide a rolling response, live as the results come in for the 2015 general election.Fran Amery, Lecturer in Politics, University of BathCatherine Happer, Research Associate, Glasgow University Media Group, University of GlasgowCharles Lees, Professor of Politics, University of BathCraig McAngus, Research Fellow, University of StirlingDavid Cutts, Reader in Political Science, University of BathEric Shaw, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of StirlingJennifer Thomson, PhD Candidate, Queen Mary University of LondonJohn Van Reenen, Director, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political ScienceJonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics , University of LiverpoolLouise Thompson, Lecturer in British Politics, University of SurreyMichael Saward, Professor in Politics, University of WarwickNeil Matthews, Research Fellow, School of Politics, International Studies and Philosophy, Queen's University BelfastPeter Lynch, Senior Lecturer, Politics, University of StirlingRainbow Murray, Reader in Politics, Queen Mary University of LondonRoger Awan-Scully, Professor of Political Science, Cardiff UniversitySophie Whiting, Lecturer in Politics, University of LiverpoolStuart Wilks-Heeg, Head of Politics, University of LiverpoolVictoria Honeyman, Lecturer in British Politics, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/414022015-05-07T05:54:38Z2015-05-07T05:54:38ZNext UK government’s legitimacy crisis in Scotland will be a weapon for the SNP<p>In British politics there is a crucial distinction between political legitimacy and governmental authority. Essentially any UK government has the constitutional authority to govern as long as it can command the confidence of the House of Commons. </p>
<p>Political legitimacy, on the other hand, stems from a somewhat slippier judgement. This is based on a combination of parliamentary arithmetic, being perceived to be the “winner”, and your ability to form a government with adequate support throughout Britain (I’m deliberately ignoring Northern Ireland since the three main parties do not compete there). In Scotland between 1979 and 1997, for example, the Conservative governments always had governmental authority but they increasingly lacked political legitimacy. </p>
<p>One of the less discussed effects of coalition politics <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm">post-2010</a> was perceptions of UK government legitimacy. Whereas the Conservatives held just one of Scotland’s 59 seats during the life of the parliament (albeit 16.7% of the vote), combined with the Liberal Democrats the government had 12 seats and 35.6% of votes. The legitimacy that this gave the coalition in Scotland is perhaps the key under-stated Lib Dem effect on the politics of the past five years.</p>
<h2>The new Scottish establishment</h2>
<p>This time it may be quite different, of course. While the 55%-45% <a href="https://www.scotreferendum.com">referendum vote</a> preserved the territorial integrity of the UK, David Cameron’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/19/david-cameron-devolution-revolution-uk-scotland-vote">linkage of</a> English Votes for English Laws to plans for further devolution to Scotland, just minutes after the announcement of the result, undoubtedly played into Scottish nationalist hands. It was nakedly party political – over 97% of Conservative MPs were drawn from English seats. Since then unionism has been in retreat in Scotland, with the Scottish National Party (SNP) increasing its membership four-fold and looking set to emerge as Scotland’s dominant party at Westminster, and potentially holding the balance of power.</p>
<p>Consequently there are numerous minority, majority and formal or informal coalition post-election scenarios, many of which raise questions of legitimacy north of the border. If the polls are <a href="http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-will-half-of-scotland-vote-for-the-snp-their-poll-lead-has-only-strengthened/">to be believed</a>, a Tory/Lib Dem group looks highly problematic. The Lib Dems look set to lose many of their Scottish seats and the Tories will not improve (indeed may lose) on the one seat they have. </p>
<p>Nor do the prospects look much better for Labour, which has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32542765">ruled out</a> any deal with the SNP. Scottish Labour is presently only polling in the 27%-29% region, not unlike the Scottish Conservatives vote share back in 1979 and 1983. If polls are to be believed, Labour could end up with fewer seats (ten) than the Conservatives had after the “doomsday scenario” election of 1987.</p>
<h2>Project Demonise</h2>
<p>This coming legitimacy problem has been foreshadowed by the tone of the UK campaign towards the SNP. Cameron’s soothing post-2010 <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-19942638">unionist rhetoric</a> ahead of the <a href="http://www.gov.scot/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence">Edinburgh Agreement</a>, where he and Alex Salmond agreed the terms of the referendum, stands in marked contrast to the UK general election campaigning language of unionism in 2015. The tribalism of Scottish politics has meant that the Labour Party has willingly played along with what social psychologists have termed the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-conservatives-mocked-online-over-boris-johnsons-claim-of-snp-jockalypse-10228433.html?fb_action_ids=10152957281327987&fb_action_types=og.shares">“othering”</a> of the SNP. This <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ff5a5a3e-e834-11e4-9960-00144feab7de.html">demonisation</a> of the SNP, Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon is unlikely to feature in the historical highlights of British unionism.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80704/original/image-20150506-10916-14phqfh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80704/original/image-20150506-10916-14phqfh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80704/original/image-20150506-10916-14phqfh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80704/original/image-20150506-10916-14phqfh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80704/original/image-20150506-10916-14phqfh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80704/original/image-20150506-10916-14phqfh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80704/original/image-20150506-10916-14phqfh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80704/original/image-20150506-10916-14phqfh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Conservative Party</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The context is an acceptance across the political spectrum today that the UK is an ever-looser union. Flexibility and pragmatism in UK territorial management have now been firmly established as the post-devolution operating code of UK political elites. The strident unitary unionism of the Conservatives 1979-1997 is the constitutional politics of a bygone era. Yet to date, the unionist parties’ approach to devolution has been grudging, incremental adjustment. The <a href="https://www.smith-commission.scot">Smith Commission</a>, which was set up to transfer more powers to Scotland after the referendum, was just the latest chapter in this story. </p>
<h2>The dog-fight to come</h2>
<p>So what happens when legitimacy comes back to haunt us? The old questions of the democratic deficit and doomsday scenarios raised in Scottish politics in the 1980s and 1990s are likely to be seen as a pale preview of the post-2015 political and constitutional dog-fight. The campaign was merely the sparring phase. The SNP is likely to make a weapon of the issue. Post-election the gloves could be off and the very continuance of the union is likely to come under great strain. It will be very much the watch “what happens” of UK politics post-2015. </p>
<p>Constitutional reform will be firmly on the agenda. The roadblock has always been the two main parties. It can only happy if one of them chooses the exit road of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-bring-scotland-back-into-the-fold-of-the-union-theres-only-one-answer-41283">constitutional convention</a>, as Scottish Labour did in the 1980s. It is true that existing arrangements have proved more durable than has often been predicted. The issue of English Votes for English Laws has endured since it <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/west-lothian-question/">first cropped up</a> as the West Lothian Question in the 1970s. </p>
<p>So has the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html">Barnett formula</a>, from which redistribution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are calculated. But this period now looks to be ending. The recent series of constitutional commissions – <a href="http://gov.wales/funding/financereform/reports/?lang=en">Holtham</a> in Wales, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/mckay-commission">McKay</a> for all the outlying nations, and most importantly Smith in Scotland – are likely to be seen in history as the precursors of significant constitutional change beyond Westminster.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80708/original/image-20150506-10940-w3gb7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80708/original/image-20150506-10940-w3gb7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80708/original/image-20150506-10940-w3gb7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80708/original/image-20150506-10940-w3gb7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80708/original/image-20150506-10940-w3gb7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80708/original/image-20150506-10940-w3gb7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80708/original/image-20150506-10940-w3gb7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80708/original/image-20150506-10940-w3gb7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A change is gonna come.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://images.pressassociation.com/meta/2.22876058.html">Steve Allen</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The problem is that legitimacy issues in Scotland will only be the tip of the iceberg. The prospect of further devolution in Scotland has had the very obvious “what about us?” effect in Northern Ireland and Wales. The UK government appears to be caught up in a logic of events over which it has little control. In short, the old elitist British conception of statecraft based on strong, centralised government looks set to come under increasing strain. The challenge for whoever next takes the reins is to try and find a new settlement. </p>
<p><em>This piece draws on Neil’s chapter The Coalition Effect 2010-2015, which was published in March.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil McGarvey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One of the consequences of the SNP’s rise is that the new UK government will have very few seats in Scotland. This looks set to become a hot potato after the election.Neil McGarvey, Politics Lecturer, University of Strathclyde Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/412122015-05-06T14:25:29Z2015-05-06T14:25:29ZFact Check: do job centres have a target for ‘benefit sanctions’?<blockquote>
<p>There’s a deliberate target, for no matter what your behaviour, you will get sanctioned by the job centre. You don’t then find out about it until you go to the hole in the wall in the bank … to get your money out. You go there, you get no money, you go to a high street money lender that you can’t afford, or you go to a food bank because you can’t feed your kids. It’s utterly unacceptable.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Jim Murphy, Labour leader in Scotland, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05tv6dm/the-leaders-debate">BBC Scottish Leaders Debate</a>.</strong></p>
<p>Jim Murphy’s comments on job centres led to a heated exchange between him and Ruth Davidson, the Conservative leader in Scotland, who said he was lying. To check out the veracity of Murphy’s comment – which the Labour party confirmed to The Conversation refers to the whole of the UK, not just Scotland – we need to look back at the history of how and when benefits are taken away from people. </p>
<p>Benefit sanctions – or the cessation of payments for a period where claimants fail to meet a range of jobsearch conditions – have been part of Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) regime since it was introduced in 1996. The stringency of JSA sanctions regime increased under the Labour government. In its third term for example, Labour <a href="http://ner.sagepub.com/content/231/1/R44.full.pdf+html">introduced</a> worksearch requirements for lone parents whose youngest child was aged over 12, subsequently reducing this age threshold to seven.</p>
<p>Under the coalition government, both the severity of sanctions and the opportunities for falling foul of the conditionality regime have increased. Following the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/5/contents/enacted/data.htm">Welfare Reform Act 2012</a>, claimants can be required to undertake a greater number and greater range of actions to find work. </p>
<p>The graph below shows the number of JSA sanctions made by JobCentre Plus offices each month since April 2000 (left hand axis and red dashed line) and expresses these as a proportion of all JSA claimants (right-hand axis, dark blue line).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80658/original/image-20150506-22652-1urublq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80658/original/image-20150506-22652-1urublq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80658/original/image-20150506-22652-1urublq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80658/original/image-20150506-22652-1urublq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80658/original/image-20150506-22652-1urublq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80658/original/image-20150506-22652-1urublq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80658/original/image-20150506-22652-1urublq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80658/original/image-20150506-22652-1urublq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Left-hand axis shows number of ‘adverse’ sanctions, i.e. decisions found against the claimant (not the number of claimants sanctioned) Source: DWP. Right-hand axis shows sanctions as a proportion of claimants in each month. Note that there is a lag between a claimant being referred for a sanction decision, and the decision being taken. This lag can range from a few weeks to several months, depending on appeals. Data here is likely to underestimate very slightly the sanctions as a proportion of JSA claimants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/jobseekers-allowance-and-employment-and-support-allowance-sanctions-decisions-made-to-september-2014">Source: DWP and NOMIS</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sanctions have risen in both numbers and proportion terms from the late 2000s. The temporary fall in the proportion of sanctions during the recession was, <a href="http://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Job-Centres-Full-report.pdf">according to the National Audit Office</a>, due to the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) relaxing service requirements to cope with increased claimant numbers and limited resources. </p>
<p>Sanctions increased under the coalition government, particularly following the introduction of the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/jobseekers-allowance-overview-of-sanctions-rules">new sanctions regime</a> in October 2012. It has been <a href="http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/files/jrf/Welfare-conditionality-UK-Summary.pdf">suggested</a> that the fall in sanctions in 2011-12 may reflect the introduction of the Work Programme in June 2011. </p>
<p>The Work Programme involves the contracting out of some jobcentre activity to private and third sector organisations. These organisations cannot impose sanctions, but report compliance doubts to DWP, who may then decide to impose a sanction. Thus the introduction of the Work Programme may have resulted in a temporary reduction in the number of sanctions issued. <a href="http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/files/jrf/Welfare-conditionality-UK-Summary.pdf">Evidence suggests</a> that the young and vulnerable groups are particularly likely to be sanctioned. </p>
<p>The sanctions regime now also affects <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmselect/cmworpen/814/814.pdf">an increasing number</a> of Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) claimants – who are too ill or disabled to work currently, but whom the DWP consider will be capable of work at some time in the future.</p>
<h2>Implicit targets?</h2>
<p>In regards to Murphy’s specific allegation about a target, there is no official target for the number of JSA sanctions achieved, either nationally or for individual JobCentrePlus (JCP) offices. However, concerns have been expressed in relation to both the JCP’s performance framework, and whether JCP advisers face an implicit target relating to sanctions. The Scottish Labour party pointed The Conversation towards a <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmselect/cmworpen/814/814.pdf">report by parliament’s Work and Pensions Committee</a>, published in March 2015, highlighting the issue and calling for a review. </p>
<p>Since its new performance monitoring regime was introduced in April 2011, JCP’s performance is primarily measured by the proportion of claimants who have left benefit, regardless as to whether the claimant entered employment or not. The Work and Pensions Select Committee raised concerns in <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmworpen/479/47907.htm#a17">paragraph 92 of its report</a> that Jobcentre staff might see sanctioning as a route to achieving some performance targets.</p>
<p>In addition, in evidence to the Work and Pensions Committee (<a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmworpen/479/47907.htm#a17">paragraph 89</a>), the PCS union – which represents Jobcentre staff – reported that JCP advisers were being put under pressure by management to increase sanctioning rates. PCS argues that the DWP had “expectations” about the appropriate level of sanctioning, that these were “targets by another name”, and that Jobcentre staff whose sanctioning rates were not meeting expectations were subject to an “improvement plan”. The DWP denied the existence of any national or local targets for sanctioning in its evidence to the committee. </p>
<h2>In the dark</h2>
<p>What about Jim Murphy’s point that claimants sometimes don’t know that they have been sanctioned until they try to withdraw money? In fact, this point was made in the 2014 <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/335144/jsa-sanctions-independent-review.pdf">Oakley Review</a> into the operation of JSA sanctions. It reported that there were cases in which: “the first that claimants knew of adverse decisions was when they tried to get their benefit payment out of a cash point but could not”. </p>
<p>There is an ongoing debate around the likely effectiveness of a stricter sanctions regime in getting people into work, as opposed to simply reducing benefit spending. This is particularly the case given that the increased use of sanctions has coincided with a <a href="http://ner.sagepub.com/content/221/1/F4.short?rss=1&ssource=mfr">reduction</a> in other forms of support for jobseekers. The Work and Pensions Committee notes that evidence on the effectiveness of financial sanctions in getting people into work is “very limited and far from clear-cut”. Short-term benefits in getting people off benefits may hide less favourable long-term outcomes on <a href="http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/files/jrf/Welfare-conditionality-UK-Summary.pdf">employment retention</a>, health, and <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmworpen/479/479vw36.htm">financial circumstances</a>.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Jim Murphy was arguably somewhat disingenuous in implying that there is a target for the number of sanctions made by job centres. However, there is some evidence that the publication of statistics on sanctions, together with a pressure to reduce welfare spending, creates the sense among advisers that there is an implicit target. Furthermore, the JCP performance framework may create perverse incentives for benefit off-flow, partly induced by sanctions, to be perceived as a positive outcome.</p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>It seems very clear to me that there are no centrally imposed targets for sanctions: certainly the legislation and regulations do not specify targets, and I am happy to take DWP at their word when they say that they do not set targets for Job Centre Plus.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the PCS union have presented evidence to MPs that show that sanction rates are monitored at the level of the adviser, the team, the office and the district, and that some individual managers take action with their staff if sanction rates are “too low”. This seems to be to be evidence that (at least) some managers do have implicit targets; what we don’t know for sure, though, is how widespread is this practice within Jobcentre Plus. – <strong>Mike Brewer</strong></p>
<div class="callout">The Conversation is fact checking political statements in the lead-up to the May UK general election. Statements are checked by an academic with expertise in the area. A second academic expert reviews an anonymous copy of the article.<br><br><a href="https://theconversation.com/factchecks/new">Click here to request a check</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible. You can also email factcheck@theconversation.com </div><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41212/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Eiser receives funding from Economic and Social Research Council, but the views expressed in this article are his own and do not reflect those of the research council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Brewer has had several contracts to undertake researched funded by the Department for Work and Pensions; the most recent of these were to undertake (separate) evaluations of the impact of In Work Credit, Lone Parent Obligations, and reforms to Local Housing Allowance. He has also received funding from the ESRC, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and the Nuffield Foundation. He is currently on a Task Group assisting the Joseph Rowntree Foundation in formulating an Anti-Poverty Strategy for the UK, and was previously been a member of two Expert Working Groups advising the Scottish Government on issues to do with welfare policy in a (hypoethetically) independent Scotland.</span></em></p>Labour’s Jim Murphy and the Conservatives’ Ruth Davidson clashed over targets for sanctioning people on benefits. Who was right?David Eiser, Research Fellow, Economics , University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/411142015-05-05T13:18:30Z2015-05-05T13:18:30ZDid Alex Salmond’s resignation lead to the astonishing rise of the SNP?<p>The Scottish National Party candidate for <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000037">Gordon</a> in Aberdeenshire has been called many things: arrogant, self-aggrandising and independence-obsessed to name a few. But Alex Salmond as selfless? That sounds downright counter-intuitive. Yet nine months on from <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/19/alex-salmond-resigns-first-minister-for-scotland">announcing his resignation</a> as first minister and leader of the SNP, Salmond’s decision to leave office looks likely to have a profound impact upon electoral and constitutional politics in the UK for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>Let me back up a moment. When other academics and I were doing media interviews on behalf of the <a href="http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/centre">Centre on Constitutional Change</a> during the referendum, we were well briefed that if there was a Yes vote, on no account were we to answer the question: “Does the prime minister have to resign?”</p>
<p>A Yes win was a real possibility. It was even considered (by some) as likely, which is why we were preparing for that question. What was never mentioned was the question in reverse: “If there is a No vote, would the first minister have to resign?” The broad assumption was that, irrespective of the outcome, Salmond would remain in office. It seemed foreseeable that he would only step down after he had served as the first leader of an independent Scotland.</p>
<p>So when Salmond called an “invitation only” press conference on September 19, few among those assembled expected him to resign. Nine months on, of course, the SNP has put the disappointment of the referendum defeat firmly behind it, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/leaders-debate-snp-gets-more-than-2000-new-members-in-under-24-hours-after-tv-battle-10154402.html">quadrupled in size</a> and is <a href="http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-will-half-of-scotland-vote-for-the-snp-their-poll-lead-has-only-strengthened/">expected to</a> topple (if not obliterate) Labour in Scotland on May 7. </p>
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<h2>The resignation effect</h2>
<p>What Salmond did by resigning was to immediately associate the referendum defeat with himself. Moving the SNP from a fundamentalist to gradualist position in his <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28835771">first stint</a> as leader during the 1990s had entailed the adoption of a referendum on independence as SNP policy, away from the previous position that a majority of SNP MPs would trigger independence. He had been one of the prime movers behind the strategy, and as such, the policy shift was tied to his leadership. </p>
<p>In the days following his resignation Salmond went further, announcing that a referendum was just one way in which Scotland could become independent. <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/salmonds-parting-shot-scotland-could-leave-the-uk-of-its-own-accord-9862386.html">He even cited a</a> unilateral declaration of independence as one possible method. In effect he was clearing the decks for his successor, providing a blank canvas for the party to start the next phase of its existence.</p>
<p>This allowed the “everything to everyone” thinking which had been a large part of the Yes campaign’s strategy during the referendum to apply to the SNP as well. The Yes campaign had been a broad church of support for independence: from left and right, business and unions, monarchists and republicans. Crucially this attracted new members to the party under the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon, members who perhaps would not have been attracted under Salmond. </p>
<p>It also attracted new voters through the perception that under Sturgeon’s leadership, the party would be able to deliver more upon the centre-left social democratic principles it had articulated during the referendum, since she has <a href="https://inthepublicsphere.wordpress.com/tag/nicola-sturgeon/">always been</a> identified more with that wing of the party. </p>
<p>The final point is that Salmond left Sturgeon in charge. He did so because he trusted his deputy to make the step up. Her different style and willingness to co-operate with Westminster in ways her predecessor appeared unable to do has of course <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/poll-shows-sturgeon-is-now-the-most-popular-politician-across-britain.124601616">won her much admiration</a> north and south of the border. </p>
<h2>What if he was still there?</h2>
<p>Admittedly, the SNP’s surge might have happened anyway. Disenchanted Yes voters would potentially have turned to the party as a means of furthering the case for independence. But the departure of the SNP’s long-term leader – a clear “Marmite” figure in British politics – has accelerated this trend. </p>
<p>In this light, Salmond’s decision to step down looks much more strategic than selfless. If the forecasts of a resounding victory come true on May 7 and Salmond is one of a group of 40 or 50 SNP MPs taking their places at Westminster, it may well be that his resignation is the one of the main reasons why.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Malcolm receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council for his position as a researcher for the Centre on Constitutional Change, but the views expressed here are entirely his own</span></em></p>As the Scottish Nationalists gear up for a big win on May 7, the contribution of one man is in danger of being overlookedMalcolm Harvey, Research Fellow of the Centre on Constitutional Change, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/399772015-04-10T14:49:51Z2015-04-10T14:49:51ZThe double life of Jim Murphy<p>One of Scottish Labour’s problems is that its most talented politicians prefer to be in Westminster rather than Holyrood. The reverse is true for the Scottish Nationalists.</p>
<p>However, there are exceptions and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy is one of them. He gave a good account of himself during the Scottish leaders’ debates.</p>
<p>Scottish Labour has a mountain to climb. If some forecasts play out, it will be effectively wiped out when the Scottish Nationalist Party takes more than <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/no-really-snp-are-going-win-least-50-scotland-s-59-seats">50 of the Scottish seats</a> in May. </p>
<p>But this won’t necessarily come to pass. In many seats Scottish Labour is better set up for the all-important ground war.</p>
<p>For Jim Murphy the debates offered a chance to directly challenge Nicola Sturgeon – his first, since he doesn’t have a seat in the Scottish Parliament.</p>
<p>She is a formidable opponent, but in general he gave as good as he got. With a more left wing tone to Scottish politics, Murphy used the first debate to emphasise his radical credentials. He promised that Labour would end the need for food banks, impose a 50p rate of income tax for higher earners and introduce caps in the private rented sector. But what appeals to Scottish voters may not play well down south. That’s Murphy’s bind.</p>
<p>In the second debate, Murphy pointed out that very few Scottish homes would have to pay Labour’s proposed mansion tax. Although the money raised would mostly come from London and the south east, he noted, it would be used to pay for more Scottish nurses. Great news for Scots but an assertion that is hardly likely to go down well in the marginal seats of London.</p>
<p>In the first debate he had claimed that a Labour government may not have to make any cuts at all. This contradicts statements by Ed Miliband that public spending will have to be reduced every year.</p>
<p>He also promised to keep the Barnett formula, which was devised as a means of channelling funds to Scotland in the 1970s by the then Labour Government. Before he died last year, Joel Barnett, who devised the formula, said the pledge to keep using it was a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11100400/My-funding-formula-for-Scotland-is-a-terrible-mistake-Lord-Barnett-admits.html">“terrible mistake”</a>.</p>
<p>Striking a more balanced note, he promised an end to the “failed austerity experiment” and exploitative zero-hours contracts. Those people who earned the most should be asked to pay a little more, he added, arguing that “you can’t have social justice on the cheap”. This is a theme that speaks to Labour supporters all over the UK.</p>
<p>Whether all this will improve Labour’s standing in Scotland, remains to be seen. It has become a difficult battleground for Labour because its main opponent may well be the party that enables it to hold on to power after May 7, even if the most recent opinion polls show Labour edging ahead. It needs to battle the SNP now and work with it later.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77628/original/image-20150410-2111-j2uznm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77628/original/image-20150410-2111-j2uznm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77628/original/image-20150410-2111-j2uznm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77628/original/image-20150410-2111-j2uznm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77628/original/image-20150410-2111-j2uznm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77628/original/image-20150410-2111-j2uznm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77628/original/image-20150410-2111-j2uznm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Murphy faces off against Sturgeon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Milligan/PA</span></span>
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<p>Murphy’s key message throughout the debates was that Labour has a better plan than the Conservatives and there is a choice of just two people as prime minister – David Cameron or Ed Miliband. Where Sturgeon fits into the picture isn’t entirely clear.</p>
<p>Many Scottish Labour voters are also angry at Labour for betraying them by siding with the Conservatives in the referendum. Some believe that the Scottish Nationalists would be a more effective voice for Scotland.</p>
<p>The challenge for Murphy is that he has to convince voters in Scotland that Labour would be as effective a voice for them as the SNP without alarming voters in England, who might fear even bigger transfers of funds to Scotland. He is walking a tightrope.</p>
<p>For too long, voters in safe constituencies were taken for granted. It may be too late to win those back who were lost while Labour wasn’t paying attention in what often looked like rotten boroughs.</p>
<p>If Labour does have to govern with the support of the SNP, the real challenge will not be Trident. Sturgeon has made it clear that her party would vote against renewing the nuclear weapon system but that will not <a href="https://theconversation.com/trident-wars-are-more-political-posturing-than-dawn-of-a-nuclear-free-age-39539">bring down a Labour government</a>.</p>
<p>The challenge will be Sturgeon’s call for real annual increases in public spending. That’s a message that many people in the Labour Party find attractive – and it of course plays well with voters. But it would cut across Labour’s promise to balance the books – making it a dangerous promise to make, particularly for Jim Murphy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39977/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
One of Scottish Labour’s problems is that its most talented politicians prefer to be in Westminster rather than Holyrood. The reverse is true for the Scottish Nationalists. However, there are exceptions…Wyn Grant, Professor of politics, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/392132015-03-25T14:02:43Z2015-03-25T14:02:43ZYoung voters are a big part of Labour’s Scottish problem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75814/original/image-20150324-17699-1aj36yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Labour can almost count its young Scottish voters on one hand.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/scottishgovernment/14498328408/">Scottish Government</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the notable features of the Scottish referendum was the decision to give 16 and 17 year olds the vote for the first time. They were enthusiastic participants, voting in <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/12/many-16-17-year-olds-voted/">higher proportions</a> than the other under-35 groups. </p>
<p>Sceptics said it would not last once these young people were being asked to take part in a normal, less exciting election. But based on a large survey in February by my team, this does not appear to be the case. </p>
<p>We found that <a href="http://www.aog.ed.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/171340/Briefing_-_Democratic_Engagement_and_the_Process_of_Constitutional_Change2.pdf">far higher proportions</a> of Scottish 18 to 24 year-olds are planning to vote in the general election than in England, which suggests that the referendum has had a lasting impact (18 and 19 year-olds were in favour of independence by 65% to 34%, while that proportion was 57% to 38% among 20 to 24 year-olds). </p>
<p>This makes the difference in voting intention even larger than that between adults in England and Scotland in general (63% say they are certain to vote in England, compared to 76% in Scotland). And the fact that the gap is biggest with the 18 and 19 year-olds is particularly interesting. </p>
<h2>Political affiliations</h2>
<p>As part of our survey, we asked our respondents “which political party, if any at all, do you feel closest to?” Among 18 to 24 year-old Scottish respondents, the clear winner was the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 28%. </p>
<p>Next highest was the 21% who did not feel close to any party and then the 14% who favoured the Scottish Greens. The rest of the parties all polled at below 10%, with a further 12% of respondents saying they did not know or preferred not to say. </p>
<p>This must be rather worrying for Scottish Labour, which fared no better than the Conservatives on 8% (or 12% once you strip out the “don’t knows”). This stands in contrast to 18 to 24 year-old English respondents, where Labour was the party that the largest proportion felt close to (25%). </p>
<p><strong>Favourite parties of 18-24s</strong></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75720/original/image-20150323-17672-1qxd77s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75720/original/image-20150323-17672-1qxd77s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75720/original/image-20150323-17672-1qxd77s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75720/original/image-20150323-17672-1qxd77s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75720/original/image-20150323-17672-1qxd77s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75720/original/image-20150323-17672-1qxd77s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75720/original/image-20150323-17672-1qxd77s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75720/original/image-20150323-17672-1qxd77s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Parties polling below 5% are counted as ‘other’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Edinburgh</span></span>
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<p>This is noticeably different to the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/23/labour-faces-electoral-rout-scotland-snp">Guardian/ICM poll</a> that came out earlier in the week, which showed 27% Labour support in Scotland. This was a long way behind the SNP’s 43%, but much healthier for Labour than what the younger voters in our survey were saying (though note that the surveys asked slightly different things: “which party do you feel closest to?” versus “which party will you vote for in the general election?”). </p>
<p>What does this tell us? Just as among the population as a whole, left-of-centre voters in Scotland have been shifting away from Labour towards SNP and Green. But among younger voters, Labour has been hit particularly hard. </p>
<p>Apart from the SNP, a disproportionate beneficiary are the Greens, which are on 17% after you strip out “don’t knows” and non-identifiers from our figures among 18 to 24 year-olds, compared to just 6% among adults overall (and 3% of all adults who said they would vote for them according to the ICM poll).</p>
<h2>Young voters, young danger</h2>
<p>I should say at this point that these figures come with a health warning. Our survey had a large enough sample of 18 to 24 year-olds in both Scotland (253) and England (736) for us to be able to make simple comparisons between the two nations. But in samples of this size, margins of error obviously are not unsubstantial, so it is better to concentrate on bigger variations than smaller ones. </p>
<p>The most important points from our survey certainly do fall into the category of bigger variations, however. The fact that far larger proportions of younger voters in Scotland are preparing to vote in May than elsewhere in the UK should create a strong impetus for all parties to take them seriously. Not only will they be a somewhat larger group of voters now than usual, their political orientation could affect the future too. </p>
<p>So Labour (and the other parties) need to ask themselves what they are doing to woo this group. If the answer is that they are focusing mainly on other demographics, this may exacerbate a poor result for Labour in May. </p>
<p>Since this most likely means more seats for the SNP, it will not directly benefit the Conservatives, since the nationalists have said they would co-operate with a red government (if certain conditions are fulfilled) but not a blue one. </p>
<p>But it could certainly give the SNP more clout in Westminster and make a Miliband premiership more beholden to the party. However this plays out, the point is this: if Labour fares poorly with younger demographics in Scotland, they cannot claim they have not been warned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39213/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jan Eichhorn receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council to conduct the survey on young people's attitudes towards the referendum. </span></em></p>New figures show that Labour is considerably further behind the SNP with an age-group that is planning to turn out in force on May 7.Jan Eichhorn, Chancellor’s Fellow (Social Policy), The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.