tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/snowy-hydro-36870/articlesSnowy Hydro – The Conversation2023-10-24T04:23:53Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2161702023-10-24T04:23:53Z2023-10-24T04:23:53ZPushing water uphill: Snowy 2.0 was a bad idea from the start. Let’s not make the same mistake again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555503/original/file-20231024-15-9cuz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C28%2C3822%2C2126&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last night <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-23/snowy-hydro-sinkhole-toxic-gas-tunnelling-four-corners/102995568">ABC’s Four Corners</a> investigated the problem-plagued Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro power station, focusing on a bogged tunnelling machine, toxic gas and an unexpected volume of sludge. </p>
<p>While these specific problems are new, we have criticised this project <a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-will-not-produce-nearly-as-much-electricity-as-claimed-we-must-hit-the-pause-button-125017">since 2019</a> and outlined <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-has-approved-snowy-2-0-here-are-six-reasons-why-thats-a-bad-move-139112">six key problems</a> even earlier <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/why-snowy-20-is-a-writeoff-from-the-start-20180104-h0d9z4">elsewhere</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="snowy hydro scheme hydroelectricity plant, with pipes and turbines and a lake" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The original Snowy Hydro scheme is regarded as a major nation-building project for Australia. But will Snowy 2.0 be seen the same way?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>In March 2017, then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull <a href="https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/securing-australias-energy-future-with-snowy-mountains-2.0">announced the project</a>, lauding it as a game changer for our clean-energy revolution. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/turnbull-says-his-biggest-leadership-failure-was-on-climate-change-83289">his memoir</a>, Turnbull dubbed Snowy 2.0 “the single most important and enduring decision of the many I made on energy”.</p>
<p>Alas, Snowy 2.0 has not gone well. The warning signs were there from the start. Both the government-appointed Snowy Hydro Board and federal government were warned they had <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/why-snowy-20-is-a-writeoff-from-the-start-20180104-h0d9z4">greatly under-costed it</a>, underestimated the construction time and failed to recognise the <a href="https://majorprojects.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/prweb/PRRestService/mp/01/getContent?AttachRef=SUB-5110%2120191106T014221.508%20GMT">damage it would do</a> to the Kosciuszko National Park. </p>
<p>In August this year, the government bumped up funding for Snowy 2.0 to A$12 billion – triple the October 2018 figure, when the final decision was made to go ahead, and six times what Turnbull first claimed it would cost in March 2017. That’s before counting the new transmission lines through the controversial HumeLink and VNI West transmission projects. When complete, Snowy 2.0 plus transmission could cost upwards of $20 billion – over ten times the figure Turnbull claimed. </p>
<p>Energy minister Chris Bowen put the Snowy failures and blowouts down to poor execution. Was it still worthwhile? Yes, he said. But Bowen also admits to being swayed by the sunk cost – the government has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/florence-the-2400-tonne-machine-that-came-to-symbolise-snowy-2-0-s-woes-20230901-p5e17w.html">already spent</a> over $4 billion on it. </p>
<p>Snowy Hydro’s new CEO Dennis Barnes <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/news/securing-the-future-of-critical-energy-transformation-resets/">has claimed</a> that while costs have blown out, the public benefits have increased as well. </p>
<p>To date, nothing has been released to substantiate claims of extra benefit despite requests by journalists and by the Senate. All that has been released is a one-page <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-snowy-hydro-corporate-plan-update">press release</a> and a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Tabled_Documents/3774">highly redacted report</a>. </p>
<h2>What are the lessons here?</h2>
<p>Pumped hydro is essentially a hydroelectricity plant with the ability to pump water back up to the top reservoir. You use cheap power to pump it uphill, and run water back down through turbines to generate power as needed. </p>
<p>The technology isn’t new. It had a previous burst of popularity in developed nations in the 1970s. But since then, there’s been very little pumped hydro built <a href="https://www.hydroreview.com/hydro-industry-news/pumped-storage-hydro/china-three-gorges-begins-construction-of-1-7-gw-tiantai-pumped-storage-power-station/#gref">except in China</a>. </p>
<p>Since the 1970s, Australia has had three pumped-hydro generators supplying the National Electricity Market, two in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Data on their generation shows they have only <a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/v-nem">a minor role in energy storage</a>.</p>
<p>None of these are comparable to Snowy 2.0, which would be vastly bigger than any we’ve built before. Snowy 2.0 has by far the longest tunnels – 27 kilometres – of any pumped-hydro station ever built. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-has-approved-snowy-2-0-here-are-six-reasons-why-thats-a-bad-move-139112">NSW has approved Snowy 2.0. Here are six reasons why that's a bad move</a>
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<p>Even our smaller pumped-hydro projects are proving harder to complete than expected. The depleted Kidston gold mine in Queensland is being converted to a 250 megawatt pumped-hydro station. The project is much simpler and smaller than Snowy 2.0 and has had extensive policy and financial support by federal and state governments. But it too is running <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/genex-resumes-work-on-pumped-hydro-flagship-as-billionaire-bidder-bides-his-time/#:%7E:text=The%20company%20insists%20that%20the,to%20%2415%20million%20over%20budget.">over budget and late</a>, although not remotely close to the same extent as Snowy 2.0.</p>
<p>These projects present hard and expensive engineering problems. They do not deliver economies from learning because each is different from the other. </p>
<p>By contrast, chemical batteries are increasingly standardised. They’re attracting huge investment in research and production. They improve the capacity of existing transmission. They’re made in factories so become cheaper as the industry scales, they have much lower capital outlays per unit of storage, so you get a much quicker payback. And you can resell them easily. </p>
<h2>How did we make such an expensive mistake?</h2>
<p>One simple explanation is that it was a political decision. The original Snowy Hydro scheme is famed as a nation-building project in post-war Australia. Snowy 2.0 was framed in the same way. Then there’s the need to be seen to “do something”, with economic and technical merit a distant third place. </p>
<p>But there’s another factor – a failure to acknowledge the pace of technology change in ever-better solar panels and wind turbines as well as in battery storage. Apparently insurmountable problems are being solved quickly, such as rapid manufacturing and installation of solar panels, the ability to harness low quality winds, and producing batteries able to service different markets at different points in the grid.</p>
<p>Given the pace of change, it would seem sensible to make the most of cheaper solutions which can be built quickly and don’t lock us in or out to technologies for the long term. </p>
<p>In practice, that means we should focus first on Australia’s <a href="https://www.cefc.com.au/insights/market-reports/how-much-rooftop-solar-can-be-installed-in-australia">huge potential</a> for solar on warehouse and factory rooftops close to our cities. It’s easy to store rooftop solar surpluses for local use. We should make the most of the enormous local potential before reaching for complex, risky, expensive and distant alternatives. </p>
<p>By analogy, don’t try to summit the mountain before climbing its foothills. From base camp, we are bound to find the mountain looks quite different to how we imagined it from a great distance. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-ensure-the-worlds-largest-pumped-hydro-dam-isnt-a-disaster-for-queenslands-environment-191758">How to ensure the world's largest pumped-hydro dam isn't a disaster for Queensland's environment</a>
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<p><em>Energy expert Ted Woodley contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Storing energy in large pumped hydro schemes sounds simple. But engineering and terrain challenges have put Snowy 2.0 well off track – while grid-scale batteries get better and betterBruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138632023-10-22T19:01:21Z2023-10-22T19:01:21ZHow to beat ‘rollout rage’: the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia<p>In August, Victoria’s Planning Minister Sonya Kilkenny <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/environmental-assessments/browse-projects/willatook-wind-farm">made a decision</a> that could set a difficult precedent for Australia’s effort to get to net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>In considering the environmental effects of the proposed $1 billion <a href="https://www.willatookwindfarm.com.au/">Willatook wind farm</a> 20km north of Port Fairy in southwest Victoria, the minister ruled that the developers, <a href="https://windprospect.com.au/">Wind Prospect</a>, had to build wider buffers around the wind turbines and observe a five-month ban on work at the site over each of the two years of construction. </p>
<p>Her reason? To protect the wetlands and breeding season of the <a href="https://www.wildlife.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/91383/Brolga.pdf">brolga</a>, a native crane and a threatened species, and the habitat of the critically endangered <a href="https://www.environment.vic.gov.au/conserving-threatened-species/threatened-species/southern-bent-wing-bat">southern bent-wing bat</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The decision shocked many clean energy developers. Wind Prospect’s managing director Ben Purcell said the conditions imposed by the minister would reduce the planned number of 59 turbines <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-08-04/willatook-wind-farm-proposal-doubt-government-recommendations/102691028">by two-thirds</a> and make the project “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-08-04/willatook-wind-farm-proposal-doubt-government-recommendations/102691028">totally unworkable</a>”. </p>
<p>Kilkenny acknowledged that <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/environmental-assessments/browse-projects/willatook-wind-farm">her assessment</a> might reduce the project’s energy output. However, she said “while the transition to renewable energy generation is an important policy and legislative priority for Victoria”, so was “protection of declining biodiversity values”.</p>
<p>The military uses the term “blue on blue” for casualties from friendly fire. In the environmental arena we now risk “green on green” losses, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4443474&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Intelligencer%20-%20August%208%2C%202023&utm_term=Subscription%20List%20-%20Daily%20Intelligencer%20%281%20Year%29">and agonising dilemmas</a> as governments try to reconcile their responses to the world’s two biggest environmental problems: climate change and biodiversity loss. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">The human factor: why Australia's net zero transition risks failing unless it is fair</a>
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<h2>The green vs green dilemma</h2>
<p>The goal of achieving net zero by 2050 requires nothing less than an economic and social transformation. That includes extensive construction of wind and solar farms, transmission lines, pumped hydro, critical mineral mines and more. </p>
<p>Australia needs to move fast – the Australian Energy Market Operator says <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-17/aemo-maps-10,000km-of-high-voltage-transmission/102833156">10,000km of high-voltage transmission lines</a> need to be built to support the clean energy transition – but we are already <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/the-energy-transition-gridlocked-regulators-have-no-answers-20231009-p5eapd">lagging badly</a>. </p>
<p>The problem is that moving fast inflames what is often fierce opposition from local communities. They are especially concerned with the environmental impacts of vast electricity towers and lines running across land they love. </p>
<p>In southern New South Wales, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/trandgrids-humelink-the-anguish-and-anger-behind-australias-clean-energy-plan/news-story/2a64de7aaffcd3462adaff39c9f5d485">organised groups are fighting to stop</a> the construction of a huge infrastructure project, <a href="https://www.transgrid.com.au/projects-innovation/humelink">HumeLink</a>, that seeks to build 360km of transmission lines to connect <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowy-20/about/">Snowy Hydro 2.0</a> and other renewable energy projects to the electricity grid. </p>
<p>Locals say the cities will get the power, while they pay the price. “No one should minimise the consequences of ‘industrialising’ Australia’s iconic locations – would we build power lines above Bondi Beach?” <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/trandgrids-humelink-the-anguish-and-anger-behind-australias-clean-energy-plan/news-story/2a64de7aaffcd3462adaff39c9f5d485">the Snowy Valleys Council asked</a> in a submission to a parliamentary inquiry.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>Clean energy developers are caught in a perfect storm, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-22/michelle-grattan-uphill-road-angry-locals-renewables/102887426">at loggerheads with environmentalists and landholders alike</a> over environmental conditions, proper consultation and compensation, while grappling with long regulatory delays and supply chain blockages for their materials. </p>
<p>They see a system that provides environmental approval on paper but seemingly unworkable conditions and intolerable delays in practice. Does the bureaucracy’s left hand, they wonder, know what its right hand is doing?</p>
<p>Net zero, nature protection and “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/rollout-rage-power-struggle-and-a-shocked-minister/news-story/21aeebffca06cd116d6b077ca5a02624">rollout rage</a>” feel like a toxic mix. Yet we have to find a quick way to deliver the clean energy projects we urgently need. </p>
<h2>What is to be done?</h2>
<p>The major solution to climate change is to electrify everything, using 100% renewable energy. That means lots of climate-friendly infrastructure.</p>
<p>The major regulatory solution to ongoing biodiversity loss is to stop running down species and ecosystems so deeply that they cannot recover. Among other things, that means protecting sensitive areas, which are sometimes the same areas that need to be cleared, or at least impinged upon, to build new infrastructure.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Made in America: how Biden's climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero</a>
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<p>To get agreement, we need a better way than the standard project-based approval processes and private negotiations between developers and landowners. The underlying principle must be that all citizens, not just directly affected groups, bear the burden of advancing the common good. </p>
<p>As tough as these problems look, elements of a potential solution, at least in outline, are on the table. </p>
<p>These elements are: good environmental information, regional environmental planning and meaningful public participation. The government’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/nature-positive-plan.pdf">Nature Positive Plan</a> for stronger environmental laws promises all three.</p>
<h2>The Albanese government’s plan</h2>
<p>Australia lags badly in gathering and assembling essential environmental information. Without it, we are flying blind. The government has <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Budget/reviews/2023-24/Environment">established Environment Information Australia</a> “to provide an authoritative source of high-quality environmental information.” Although extremely belated, it’s a start.</p>
<p>The Nature Positive Plan may also improve the second element – regional planning – by helping it deal with “green on green” disputes through <a href="https://www.kwm.com/global/en/insights/latest-thinking/federal-environmental-law-reform-what-you-need-to-know-in-2023.html#:%7E:text=Regional%20plans%20will%20be%20built,development%20will%20be%20largely%20prohibited">its proposed “traffic light” system</a> of environmental values. </p>
<p>Places with the highest environmental values (or significant Indigenous and other heritage values) would be placed in “red zones” and be protected from development, climate-friendly or not. </p>
<p>Development would be planned in orange and green zones, but require <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/animals-and-plants/biodiversity-offsets-scheme#:%7E:text=The%20Biodiversity%20Offsets%20Scheme%20is,gains%20through%20landholder%20stewardship%20agreements.">biodiversity offsets</a> in orange zones. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p>The catch is that most current biodiversity offsets, which commonly involve putting land into reserve to compensate for land cleared, are environmental failures. </p>
<p>The government has promised to tighten these rules, but advocates ranging from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/development-could-be-banned-in-certain-areas-amid-sweeping-recommendations-20230824-p5dz5t.html">former senior public servant Ken Henry</a> to the <a href="https://www.acf.org.au/what-the-governments-plan-to-overhaul-our-national-environment-laws-means-for-nature">Australian Conservation Foundation</a> are pushing for more. A strict approach would make offsets expensive and sometimes impossible to find, but that is the price of becoming nature-positive. </p>
<h2>The need for regional planning</h2>
<p>Good regional planning – based, say, on Australia’s <a href="https://nrmregionsaustralia.com.au/nrm-regions-map/">54 natural resource management regions</a> – would deal with a bundle of issues upfront. That approach would avoid the environmental “deaths of a thousand cuts” that occur when developments are approved one by one. </p>
<p>But regional planning will only succeed if federal and state governments allocate significant resources and work together. Australia’s record on such cooperation is a sorry one. Again, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek is attempting a belated <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/plibersek/media-releases/regional-plans-transform-environmental-protection">fresh start</a>, but this will be a particularly rocky road.</p>
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<p>The third element – meaningful public participation – involves restoring trust in the system. This requires transparency, proper consultation, and the public’s right <a href="https://www.wilderness.org.au/news-events/epbc-act-must-enshrine-a-fair-say-for-community">to challenge decisions in the courts</a>. </p>
<p>Meaningful consultation requires time, expertise, and properly funded expert bodies that can build a culture of continuous improvement. Again, Australia’s record to date has been piecemeal and poor.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>These reforms – better information, planning and public participation – will take time. In the meantime, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle">precautionary principle</a> suggests a three-pronged approach to keeping us on track for net zero. </p>
<p>One, work proactively with developers to find infrastructure sites that avoid environmentally sensitive areas. </p>
<p>Two, speed up regulatory approvals. Fund well-resourced taskforces for both, as the gains will vastly outweigh the costs.</p>
<p>Three, be generous in compensating landowners where development is approved. Fairness comes at a cost, but unfairness will create an even higher one.</p>
<p>All this makes for a political sandwich of a certain kind. Why would government even consider it? </p>
<p>The answer lays bare the hard choice underlying modern environmental policy. We can accept some pain now, or a lot more later. The prize, though, is priceless: a clean energy system for a stable climate, and a natural environment worth passing on to future generations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Burnett is a member of the Biodiversity Council, which has the object of communicating accurate information on all aspects of biodiversity to secure and restore the future of Australia’s biodiversity.</span></em></p>If Australia is to meet its net zero targets it must move fast and build massive industrial infrastructure. But those projects are provoking fierce hostility. Is there a way through the green dilemma?Peter Burnett, Honorary Associate Professor, ANU College of Law, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2049152023-05-04T05:36:28Z2023-05-04T05:36:28ZI’m not an apologist for the Snowy 2.0 hydro scheme – but let’s not obsess over the delays and cost blowouts<p>The first power from the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project may not be delivered until 2028, it was revealed yesterday, triggering a fresh round of criticism over the controversial project.</p>
<p>The delay is undoubtedly inconvenient. But, despite <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/snowy-2-0-pumped-hydro-project-hit-with-new-delays-cost-blowouts-20230503-p5d55l.html">speculation</a>, the hold-up won’t noticeably slow the transition to renewable energy. The shift is driven by the compelling price advantage of solar and wind over coal and gas.</p>
<p>And in my view, we shouldn’t get too obsessed about exactly when Snowy 2.0 will be finished, or whether it costs more than first envisaged. In huge projects such as these, delays and cost blowouts are to be expected. And Snowy 2.0 offers us many lessons that will benefit subsequent pumped hydro projects.</p>
<p>I’m not an apologist for Snowy 2.0. I would have preferred it wasn’t built in a national park. But Australia’s renewable energy transformation will require a huge amount of energy storage – and the Snowy extension is an important part of the mix.</p>
<h2>A big deal for powering Australia</h2>
<p>Federal government-owned Snowy Hydro on Wednesday <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowy-20/about/">said</a> Snowy 2.0 may not begin initial operation until the second half 2028 and may not be fully online until December 2029. It is also likely to suffer further cost blowouts beyond its current price tag of A$5.9 billion. </p>
<p>The project was originally costed at $2 billion and was expected to start operating in 2021.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/news/snowy-2-0-project-update/">statement</a>, Snowy Hydro attributed the latest delay to COVID-19, global supply chain disruption, technical complications and geological issues.</p>
<p>Snowy 2.0 is the biggest energy storage project under construction in Australia. Pumped hydro storage <a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1-500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs-194330">involves</a> two small reservoirs spaced a few kilometres apart, one built 400-800 metres higher than the other, with tunnels connecting them. </p>
<p>On sunny and windy days, electricity is stored by pumping water up to the higher reservoir. Later, when energy is needed, the water is released downhill through the turbine to produce electricity. The same water goes up and down the hill for the life of the project.</p>
<p>The Albanese government has set a national target of <a href="https://www.aofm.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-11-28/Aust%20Govt%20CC%20Actions%20Update%20November%202022_1.pdf">82% renewable electricity</a> by 2030 – most from solar and wind. These are intermittent energy sources, meaning they sometimes produce more energy than we need, and sometimes less. Energy storage helps smooth bumps in supply.</p>
<p>Solar and wind energy generation in the national electricity market meets <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m">about one-third of demand</a>, up from <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m">1% in 2009</a> and <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m">9% in 2017</a>. So at the moment, we don’t need much energy storage because existing coal, gas and hydroelectric power stations still help balance electricity demand.</p>
<p>But by 2028, solar and wind are expected to generate about 60% of electricity in the market. By then, many more coal plants <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-largest-coal-plant-will-close-7-years-early-but-theres-still-no-national-plan-for-coals-inevitable-demise-177317">will have closed</a>, and we’ll need other ways to balance supply and demand. That’s where Snowy 2.0 and other projects come in.</p>
<h2>A suite of options needed</h2>
<p>So how do we make sure Australia’s electricity supplies remain reliable throughout the renewable energy transition? With a suite of technologies and projects.</p>
<p>The top priority is lots of new transmission infrastructure – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">mostly</a> high-voltage cables and associated towers, as well as transformers.</p>
<p>This infrastructure is needed to move power generated by new solar and wind projects in rural areas to the cities, and also between states. </p>
<p>Importantly, strong energy transmission between states hugely reduces the need for energy storage by smoothing out local weather. If it’s a wet, windless week in Victoria, electricity can be sent from New South Wales and South Australia. The following week, Victoria might return the favour.</p>
<p>Many other current and future options exist to balance out electricity supplies. They include:</p>
<ul>
<li>off-river pumped hydro</li>
<li>grid-scale batteries</li>
<li>hot water storage tanks in homes and factories</li>
<li>high temperature thermal storage in factories to displace gas furnaces</li>
<li>activities to reduce electricity demand at peak times (known as demand management)</li>
<li>legacy gas turbines operating only occasionally</li>
<li>electric vehicle batteries.</li>
</ul>
<p>The Snowy 2.0 delays mean other storage methods will take a stronger role in the interim.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">What is the electricity transmission system, and why does it need fixing?</a>
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<h2>Pumped hydro vs the alternatives</h2>
<p>Grid-scale batteries are useful for short-term energy storage – seconds, minutes and hours. </p>
<p>Several big battery projects are being deployed in Australia. This includes a project by German energy company RWE, which was <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/eight-hour-big-battery-trumps-pumped-hydro-in-nsw-long-duration-storage-tender/">just awarded</a> a major NSW government contract. It will generate 50 megawatts of power continuously for eight hours, and so has an energy storage capacity of 400 megawatt-hours. </p>
<p>But pumped hydro <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2021/AustralianElectricityOptionsPumpedHydro">excels at</a> overnight and longer energy storage. Globally, pumped hydro constitutes <a href="https://sandia.gov/ess-ssl/gesdb/public/projects.html">about 95%</a> of electricity storage.</p>
<p>Australia has about <a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1-500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs-194330">5,500 potential pumped hydro sites</a>. Since we only need ten or 20 pumped hydro systems, we can afford to be very choosy. </p>
<p>Australia has three operating pumped hydro energy storage systems. Two are under construction, including Snowy 2.0, and a dozen others <a href="https://energycentral.com/c/cp/15-gw-pumped-hydro-announced-australia">are being planned</a> including big systems in <a href="https://qldhydro.com.au/projects/pioneer-burdekin/">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://energycentral.com/c/cp/15-gw-pumped-hydro-announced-australia">Tasmania</a>.</p>
<p>Pumped hydro uses water, whereas batteries use far more expensive electrochemicals. And hydro systems last much longer than big batteries. It’s not a question of choosing between batteries and pumped hydro. We need both.</p>
<p>Snowy 2.0 will have the capacity to generate 2,000 megawatts of continuous power for a whole week, and so will provide about 350,000 megawatt-hours of storage.</p>
<p>This is 40 times more power capacity than the 50 megawatt RWE battery, and about 900 times the energy storage. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://qldhydro.com.au/projects/pioneer-burdekin/">Pioneer-Burdekin</a> pumped hydro system being developed in Queensland will be able to generate 5,000 megawatts of power for 24 hours. This is 100 times more power and 300 times more energy storage than the RWE big battery. </p>
<h2>What about the cost?</h2>
<p>Upwards of $6 billion is not an insubstantial amount of money. But Snowy 2.0 would have been a bargain if it was completed for $2 billion. And even at, say, $9 billion, the project is still small compared to the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/value-renewable-energy-construction">$17 billion</a> Australia spends collectively each year on rooftop solar, windfarms, solar farms, electricity storage and powerlines. </p>
<p>The decision to locate Snowy 2.0 in a national park has been intensely <a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-threatens-to-pollute-our-rivers-and-wipe-out-native-fish-135194">criticised</a>. Indeed, my colleagues and I recently identified several attractive alternative sites for 500,000 megawatt-hour pumped hydro projects just a few kilometres west of Snowy 2.0, outside national parks, which you can see in this <a href="https://re100.anu.edu.au/#share=g-98faa867f8f4c295a3a68f781029e950">interactive map</a>. Each would require only a short tunnel and a single new reservoir.</p>
<p>However, at the time the Turnbull government committed to Snowy 2.0, it was the only large-scale storage option on the table. And it’s now fairly far down the construction track. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-threatens-to-pollute-our-rivers-and-wipe-out-native-fish-135194">Snowy 2.0 threatens to pollute our rivers and wipe out native fish</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Snowy 2.0 is worth doing</h2>
<p>Solar and wind could provide <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it-190241">virtually all</a> future energy both in Australia and globally. </p>
<p>This would <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220327857?via%3Dihub">eliminate three-quarters</a> of Australia’s greenhouse emissions. But it requires a doubling of electricity generation, supported by up to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220327857?via%3Dihub">one million megawatt-hours</a> of energy storage.</p>
<p>So for the sake of the renewables transition, let’s hope Snowy 2.0’s technical and financial difficulties are resolved. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1-500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs-194330">Batteries of gravity and water: we found 1,500 new pumped hydro sites next to existing reservoirs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and DFAT</span></em></p>Australia’s renewable energy transformation will require a huge amount of energy storage. We need Snowy 2.0 to succeed.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1761572022-02-02T04:42:17Z2022-02-02T04:42:17ZLabor’s plan to green the Kurri Kurri gas power plant makes no sense<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443936/original/file-20220202-23-1nehxsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C4800%2C3183&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Is it possible to have your cake and eat it too? Federal Labor is certainly giving it a go by supporting government plans for a fossil gas/diesel peaking plant in the Hunter Valley currently under construction – as long as the plant switches to green hydrogen by 2030. </p>
<p>This is disappointing for three reasons. </p>
<p>One, we don’t actually need the Kurri Kurri power station. It will be a government-built white elephant. </p>
<p>Two, retrofitting it to burn hydrogen would be so expensive as to be unrealistic. </p>
<p>And three, burning hydrogen for power is about the least useful thing you can do with it. </p>
<p>The gas/diesel plant under construction and Labor’s hydrogen proposal came from the realm of politics. It should have stayed there. </p>
<h2>Why did Labor switch its position?</h2>
<p>Labor has long been split on the Kurri Kurri power station, which has been touted as a way to augment dispatchable generation. At first, Labor denounced the Morrison government’s plans, with climate change spokesman Chris Bowen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/19/labor-demands-government-release-business-case-for-600m-hunter-valley-gas-plant">describing it</a> as a “cynical attempt to pick a fight on gas and continue the climate wars, or to reward the major Liberal donor who owns the Kurri Kurri site”.</p>
<p>Now <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-makes-green-hydrogen-pitch-for-government-s-kurri-kurri-gas-plant-20220131-p59spg.html">they say</a> it will create jobs and help provide reliable and affordable electricity. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/government-owned-firms-like-snowy-hydro-can-do-better-than-building-600-million-gas-plants-161180">Government-owned firms like Snowy Hydro can do better than building $600 million gas plants</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>As a nod to climate change action, Labor leader Anthony Albanese and climate spokesman Chris Bowen announced the switch with the caveat that Kurri Kurri will use green hydrogen to power 30% of its production when the plant enters service in 2023 and 100% by 2030. Labor says it is prepared to spend up to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/01/labor-pledges-extra-funding-for-snowy-hydro-power-plant-to-make-it-run-on-green-hydrogen">another $700 million</a> on the plant. </p>
<p>It has been <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/alp-s-about-face-on-kurri-kurri-gas-plant-is-pure-politics-20220201-p59syj.html">widely suggested</a> the proposed plant is the government’s way to take advantage of Labor’s internal divide. </p>
<p>When the plant was first proposed for the small town 35 km inland from Newcastle, Energy Security Board chair Kerry Schott <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/30/australian-energy-board-chair-says-gas-fired-power-plant-in-hunter-valley-doesnt-stack-up">questioned its viability</a>. “Nobody is going to build it from the private sector because it doesn’t stack up,” she said. </p>
<p>She’s right. It didn’t stack up then and doesn’t stack up now, regardless of how it’s powered. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="coal power station seen from above" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Hunter Valley has long been a site for fossil fuel power stations, such as the Bayswater coal station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The power plant no one needs</h2>
<p>When my colleagues and I took a <a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/92a2aa_fba5b6e82d644293ad959586211572f1.pdf">deep dive</a> into this proposed power station, we found there was no need for it until at least 2030. That’s the best case. But as time goes by it is increasingly unlikely it will ever be needed as much cheaper and more efficient alternatives including batteries come to meet the increasing demand for stored energy. </p>
<p>That’s to say nothing of the fact the initial proposal would only have had enough gas stored to run for six hours and then take a day to recharge. Snowy Hydro has since upped these plans to 10 hours of storage. </p>
<p>And Snowy Hydro’s price tag of $600 million? Fiddlesticks. It will cost vastly more. We estimate well over $1bn when costs of the pipelines, storage and other infrastructure are included, even without hydrogen. As a result, there is no way Kurri Kurri would attract enough income to recover its costs. It’s hardly surprising private investors are steering clear. Why bankroll a dud? </p>
<h2>But isn’t it good to make gas plants greener?</h2>
<p>You can add up to 10% of hydrogen to conventional gas fired turbines without trouble. And you can use hydrogen as the primary fuel in turbine-based power plants, as South Korea <a href="https://www.modernpowersystems.com/features/featuredaesan-unit-burns-95-per-cent-hydrogen-fuel">has done</a> using hydrogen produced as a by-product in the process of refining oil. </p>
<p>The problem is the two Kurri Kurri turbines ordered by the government can run on a maximum of 15% hydrogen. Snowy Hydro suggests the turbines could be extended to a maximum 30% hydrogen mix, with changes to the internal equipment and piping. But the gas lateral pipeline/storage system is only being constructed to accommodate a 10% mix, and would need to be completely rebuilt to transmit a higher blend. </p>
<p>In short, converting Kurri Kurri to hydrogen means completely rebuilding the plant and its pipeline and storage infrastructure. These are not minor changes. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="gas fired plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Kurri Kurri plant as depicted in Snowy Hydro planning documents.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Environmental Impact Statement, Snowy Hydro Hunter Power Project</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Let’s imagine Labor is elected and proves determined to press ahead with these plans. Where, exactly, will they get the green hydrogen from and how will it be stored to run the plant? At present, the world has no large scale source of climate-safe hydrogen produced from water. While there is a great deal of interest in large scale electrolysis – the process where we split water to get hydrogen and oxygen – there is a long road ahead. </p>
<h2>Let’s not waste time on distractions</h2>
<p>Is that the end of the issues plaguing this plant? Nope. Even if we get to the point where green hydrogen is plentiful, burning it in a combustion turbine is one of the most wasteful ways to use it. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/international-energy-agency-warns-against-new-fossil-fuel-projects-guess-what-australia-did-next-161178">International Energy Agency warns against new fossil fuel projects. Guess what Australia did next?</a>
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<hr>
<p>That’s because combustion turbines are very inefficient ways to produce electricity. They waste half the energy they consume in the form of heat vented to the atmosphere. That alone makes the use of hydrogen in turbines uneconomic. In fact, we doubt hydrogen will ever be used in combustion turbines to produce electricity. There is absolutely no need to bother doing so, given much better alternatives already exist. Batteries already dominate the market for new storage in Australia and elsewhere and this will surely continue. </p>
<p>We’d be much better off using green hydrogen to decarbonise more difficult industries, such as the production of fertiliser, in industrial processes and chemical manufacturing, and for long-distance land or sea heavy freight where hydrogen still has a weight advantage over batteries. </p>
<p>There are enormous challenges to be met in the transition towards renewable energy and away from fossil fuels. These kinds of obviously economically and technically infeasible proposals serve only to set us back. We should give these plans short shrift. </p>
<p><em>Independent engineer Ted Woodley contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176157/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor wants to run the Kurri Kurri gas power station on green hydrogen. But the figures don’t stack up.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1611802021-05-19T09:00:28Z2021-05-19T09:00:28ZGovernment-owned firms like Snowy Hydro can do better than building $600 million gas plants<p>The Morrison government today announced it’s building a new gas power plant in the Hunter Valley, committing up to A$600 million for the government-owned corporation Snowy Hydro to construct the project.</p>
<p>Critics argue the plant is inconsistent with the latest climate science. And a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/19/australia-urged-to-drop-coal-and-gas-plans-after-global-energy-agencys-warning">new report</a> by the International Energy Agency has warned no new fossil fuel projects should be funded if we’re to avoid catastrophic climate change.</p>
<p>The move is also inconsistent with research showing government-owned companies can help drive clean energy innovation. Such companies are often branded as uncompetitive, stuck in the past and unable to innovate. But in fact, they’re sometimes better suited than private firms to take investment risks and test speculative technologies. </p>
<p>And if the investments are successful, taxpayers, the private sector and consumers share the benefits.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Wind farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401528/original/file-20210519-23-151vj67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If government-owned firms led the way in clean energy technologies, society would benefit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lead, not limit</h2>
<p>Federal energy minister Angus Taylor <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/protecting-families-and-businesses-higher-energy-prices">announced</a> the funding on Wednesday. He said the 660-megawatt open-cycle gas turbine at Kurri Kurri will “create jobs, keep energy prices low, keep the lights on and help reduce emissions”.</p>
<p>Experts insist the plan <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/04/energy-australia-confirms-new-gas-plant-in-illawarra-after-morrison-government-threatened-to-intervene">doesn’t stack up</a> economically and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/barrage-of-batteries-to-undermine-new-gas-plant-before-it-s-built-20210519-p57t70.html">may operate</a> at less than 2% capacity.</p>
<p>But missing from the public debate is the question of how government-owned companies such as Snowy Hydro might be used to accelerate the clean energy transition.</p>
<p>Australian governments (of all persuasions) have not often used the companies they own to lead in clean energy innovation. Many, such as Hydro Tasmania, still rely on decades-old hydroelectric technologies. And others, such as Queensland’s Stanwell Corporation and Western Australia’s Synergy, rely heavily on older coal and gas assets. </p>
<p>Asking Snowy Hydro to build a gas-fired power plant is yet another example – but it needn’t be this way.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-single-mega-project-exposes-the-morrison-governments-gas-plan-as-staggering-folly-133435">A single mega-project exposes the Morrison government's gas plan as staggering folly</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="gas plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401529/original/file-20210519-19-drqkkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Snowy Hydro has been funded to build a $600 million gas plant, but it could do better.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The burning question</h2>
<p>Globally, more than 60% of electricity <a href="https://asiasociety.org/australia/engaging-asias-state-owned-enterprises-climate-challenge">comes from</a> wholly or partially state-owned companies. In Australia, despite the 20-year trend towards electricity privatisation, government-owned companies remain important power generators.</p>
<p>At the Commonwealth level, Snowy Hydro provides around <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/State%20of%20the%20energy%20market%202020%20-%20Full%20report%20A4.pdf">20%</a> of capacity to New South Wales and Victoria. And <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/State%20of%20the%20energy%20market%202020%20-%20Full%20report%20A4.pdf">most</a> electricity in Queensland, Tasmania and Western Australia is generated by state government-owned businesses.</p>
<p>But political considerations mean government-owned electricity companies can struggle to navigate the clean energy path.</p>
<p>For example in April this year, the chief executive of Stanwell Corporation, Richard Van Breda, <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/departed-stanwell-ceo-a-victim-of-climate-and-culture-war-politics-20210428-p57n3m">suggested</a> the firm would mothball its coal-powered generators before the end of their technical life, because cheap renewables were driving down power prices. </p>
<p>Queensland’s Labor government was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/28/ceo-quit-queenslands-biggest-power-generator-after-energy-minister-complained-to-board">reportedly</a> unhappy with the announcement, fearing <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/departed-stanwell-ceo-a-victim-of-climate-and-culture-war-politics-20210428-p57n3m">voter backlash</a> in coal regions. Breda has since <a href="https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/mystery-surrounds-stanwell-ceo-s-exit-20210426-p57mj0">stepped down</a> and Stanwell is reportedly backtracking on its transition plans.</p>
<p>Such examples beg the question: can government-owned companies ever innovate on clean energy? A growing literature in economics, as well as several real-world examples, suggest that under the right conditions, the answer is yes.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-1-5-global-warming-limit-is-not-impossible-but-without-political-action-it-soon-will-be-159297">The 1.5℃ global warming limit is not impossible – but without political action it soon will be</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="desk showing Stanwell logo" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401531/original/file-20210519-19-1vl67le.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">State-owned Stanwell Corporation is reportedly back-tracking on plans to mothball its coal plants early.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stanwell Corporation</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Privatised is not always best</h2>
<p><a href="https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.12.4.133">Economists</a> have traditionally argued state-owned companies are not good innovators. As the argument goes, the absence of competitive market forces makes them less efficient than their private sector peers. </p>
<p>But recent research by <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162517306820">academics</a> and international policy institutions such as <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/state-owned-enterprises-and-the-low-carbon-transition_06ff826b-en">the OECD</a> has shown government ownership in the electricity sector can be an asset, not a curse, for achieving technological change. </p>
<p>The reason runs contrary to orthodox economic thinking. While competition can lead to firm efficiency, some economists <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2753/JEI0021-3624480311">argue</a> government-owned firms can take greater risks. Without the pressure for market-rate returns to shareholders, government enterprises may be freer to invest in more speculative technologies. </p>
<p>My ongoing research <a href="https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/13810814">has shown</a> the reality is even more complex. Whether state-owned electric companies can drive clean energy innovation depends a great deal on government interests and corporate governance rules.</p>
<p>For example, consider the New York Power Authority (NYPA) which, like Snowy Hydro, is wholly government owned. </p>
<p>New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has deliberately sought to use NYPA to decarbonise the state’s electricity grid. The government has managed the company in a way that enables it to take risks on new transmission and generation technologies that investor-owned peers cannot. </p>
<p>For instance, NYPA is <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/digitalization-beyond-data-aggregation-nypas-progress/550820/">investing in</a> advanced sensors and computing systems so it can better manage distributed energy sources such as solar and wind. The technology will also simulate major catastrophic events, including those likely to ensue from climate change. </p>
<p>These investments are likely to contribute to greater grid stability and greater renewables use, benefiting not just NYPA but other electricity generators and ultimately, consumers. </p>
<p>Such innovation is nothing new. Also in the US, the state-owned Sacramento Municipal Utility District built one of the first utility-scale solar projects in the world in <a href="https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/solar/two-decades-of-solar-power-in-sacramento-11858/#gref">1984</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Andrew Cuomo in front of flag" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401533/original/file-20210519-17-1dhbo0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NY Governor Andrew Cuomo is using a state-owned company to aid the clean energy transition.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mary Altaffer/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>More could be done to ensure Australian government-owned corporations are clean energy catalysts.</p>
<p>Clean energy technologies can struggle to bridge the gap from invention to widespread adoption. Public investment can bring down the price of such technologies or demonstrate their efficacy. </p>
<p>In this regard, government-owned companies could work with private technology firms to invest in technologies in the early stages of development, and which could have significant public benefits. For instance, in 2020, the Western Australian government-owned company Synergy <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/west-australia-to-build-100mw-big-battery-the-first-on-states-main-grid-78594/">sought</a> to build a 100 megawatt battery with private sector partners.</p>
<p>But many problems facing state-owned companies are the result of ever-changing government policy priorities. The firms should be reformed so they are owned by government, but operated at arm’s length and with other partners. This might better enable clean energy investment without the politics.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-states-are-forging-ahead-with-ambitious-emissions-reductions-imagine-if-they-worked-together-160191">Australia's states are forging ahead with ambitious emissions reductions. Imagine if they worked together</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arjuna Dibley consults for Pollination, he is a Fellow at the Centre for Policy Development and a board member at Environmental Justice Australia. The views expressed in the article are his own and not those of any of the organisations with which he is affiliated. </span></em></p>Government-owned firms are often branded as uncompetitive, stuck in the past and unable to truly innovate. But they’re sometimes better suited than private firms to drive new, clean technologies.Arjuna Dibley, Visiting Researcher, Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1463282020-09-16T09:17:38Z2020-09-16T09:17:38ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Angus Taylor on the ‘gas-fired’ recovery<p>The Coalition is having yet another go at crafting an energy policy. Faced with the huge economic challenges presented by COVID, the government this week announced its “gas-fired recovery”.</p>
<p>But the policy is already under fire from both environmentalists and coal advocates, and the energy sector warns it could discourage investors. </p>
<p>Part of the announcement was a threat – the government will build a gas generator in the Hunter Valley if the private sector fails to fill the gap in power supply that will be created by the closure of the Liddell coal-fired power plant. </p>
<p>This dramatic form of intervention would seem very much against the Liberal grain.</p>
<p>But Energy Minister Angus Taylor says: “Our focus is on good competitive markets. That’s a Liberal Party philosophy. </p>
<p>"Our belief is in the importance of affordable, reliable energy - we want the private sector to deliver it. That’s their obligation to their customers, we believe. But if they don’t, we will step in.”</p>
<p>Despite the focus on gas, Taylor said renewables would play their role in the future. “I’ve always been enormously enthusiastic about renewables, but I also see that what we need is a mix. </p>
<p>"And when people talk about a single technology as the answer to all our problems, I am sceptical.</p>
<p>"I’m not sceptical of balance and having a range of different technologies…a balance that includes hydro, solar and wind, gas, coal, batteries starting to play a role, particularly over the very short term, to help support, secure, the market.”</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses the government's recently announced energy policy with Minister for Energy Angus TaylorMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1461962020-09-15T06:59:08Z2020-09-15T06:59:08ZNo, Prime Minister, gas doesn’t ‘work for all Australians’ and your scare tactics ignore modern energy problems<p>The federal government <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-government-threatens-to-use-snowy-hydro-to-build-gas-generator-as-it-outlines-gas-fired-recovery-plan-146154">today announced</a> it will build a new gas power plant in the Hunter Valley, NSW, if electricity generators don’t fill the energy gap left by the Liddell coal-fired station when it retires in 2023.</p>
<p>The government says it’s concerned that when the coal plant closes, there’ll be insufficient dispatchable power (that can be used on demand) because the energy sector is focused on accelerating renewable energy at the expense of reliability. So electricity generators are required to come up with a plan to inject 1,000 megawatts of new dispatchable energy into the national grid.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-government-threatens-to-use-snowy-hydro-to-build-gas-generator-as-it-outlines-gas-fired-recovery-plan-146154">Morrison government threatens to use Snowy Hydro to build gas generator, as it outlines 'gas-fired recovery' plan</a>
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<p>This is tantamount to an ultimatum: if we must have renewables, then prove they generate the same amount of electricity as fossil fuel or we will go back to fossil fuel. </p>
<p>The government’s joint <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/gas-fired-recovery">media release</a> has this to say:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is about making Australia’s gas work for all Australians. Gas is a critical enabler of Australia’s economy. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But under a rapidly changing climate, the issue is not just about keeping the lights on. We not only want energy, <a href="https://www.science.org.au/learning/general-audience/science-climate-change/7-what-are-impacts-of-climate-change">we also</a> want to breathe clean air, have enough food, have clean and available water supplies, preserve our habitat and live in a sustainable community. So no, gas doesn’t “work for all Australians”. </p>
<p>Adapting to a new energy future is a complex process our national government must not only support, but progress. It should not be hijacked by fossil fuel politics.</p>
<h2>Scare-tactics won’t resolve the climate emergency</h2>
<p>The government’s scare tactic completely ignores the two fundamental imperatives of modern energy. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-why-a-gas-led-economic-recovery-is-a-terrible-na-ve-idea-145009">4 reasons why a gas-led economic recovery is a terrible, naïve idea</a>
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<p>The first is the critical importance of decarbonisation. Energy production from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/09/revealed-20-firms-third-carbon-emissions">fossil fuels</a> is the most carbon intensive activity on the planet. If we are to reach net zero emissions by 2050 and stay within 2°C of global warming, we cannot burn fossil fuels to produce energy. </p>
<p>The government shouldn’t revert to outdated fossil fuel rhetoric about “reliable, dispatchable power” during an accelerating climate emergency. </p>
<p>The second is it’s in the public interest to support and invest in energy that’s not only environmentally sustainable for the future, but also economically sustainable. Demand for fossil fuels is in terminal decline across the world and investing in new fossil fuel infrastructure may lead to <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-why-a-gas-led-economic-recovery-is-a-terrible-na-ve-idea-145009">stranded assets</a>.</p>
<h2>We need to address the ‘energy trilemma’</h2>
<p>The question the government should instead focus on is this: how can the government continue to supply its citizens with affordable, reliable electricity but also maintain a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and high air quality standards? </p>
<p>Answering this question involves addressing a three-part set of tensions, known as the “<a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/australia-s-energy-trilemma-explained">energy trilemma</a>”: </p>
<ol>
<li>sustainable generation that is not emission intensive </li>
<li>infrastructure reliability and </li>
<li>affordability.<br></li>
</ol>
<p>The energy trilemma is a well-known tool in the sector that powerfully communicates the relative positioning of each tension. No single axis is necessarily more important than the other two. The aim is to try to balance all three. </p>
<p>Constructing a new gas plant seeks to address the second pillar at the expense of the first. This isn’t good enough in the face of the climate emergency. </p>
<p>Gas fired electricity can <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/26/methane-released-in-gas-production-means-australias-emissions-may-be-10-higher-than-reported">emit methane</a>. Over a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf">20-year period</a>, methane is 84 times more effective than carbon dioxide in trapping heat, and 28 times more effective over 100 years. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-plenty-of-gas-but-the-price-is-extreme-the-market-is-broken-125130">Australia has plenty of gas, but the price is extreme. The market is broken</a>
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<p>The affordability pillar is also important. Morrison says constructing the plant will prevent energy price spikes. But <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-csiro-aemo-study-confirms-wind-solar-and-storage-beat-coal-gas-and-nuclear-57530/">research clearly confirms</a> renewable energy generation is cheapest. </p>
<h2>What is it with the federal government and gas?</h2>
<p>After <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/pm-says-gas-led-recovery-to-help-australia-out-of-recession-20200915-p55vti.html">first informing us</a> gas will help bolster the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, this new announcement makes it clear the federal government is firmly wedded to gas.</p>
<p>This may be because the federal government regards adherence to gas as a compromise between the renewable sector and the demands of the fossil fuel industry. </p>
<p>In any case, we cannot and must not revert to fossil fuel energy generation. We must abandon past behaviours if we’re to adapt to a changing climate, which is set to hit the economy <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15453-z">much harder</a> than this pandemic.</p>
<p>Most Australians have derived their assumptions about energy security from fossil fuel dependency, because this is what they have known. The good news is this is changing. </p>
<p>Increasingly, the global community understands it’s not sustainable to burn coal or gas to generate energy <a href="https://www.dhakatribune.com/business/commerce/2020/09/14/bp-fossil-fuel-demand-to-take-historic-knock-amid-covid-19-scars">just because</a> we want to be “sure” we can turn the lights on. Consumer preference is shifting. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-it-doesnt-make-economic-sense-to-ignore-climate-change-in-our-recovery-from-the-pandemic-137282">Why it doesn't make economic sense to ignore climate change in our recovery from the pandemic</a>
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<p>This is something BP recognises in its <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/introduction/overview.html">2020 Energy Outlook report</a>, which outlines three scenarios for the global energy system in next 30 years. </p>
<p>Each scenario shows a shift in social preferences and a decline in the share of hydrocarbons (coal, oil and natural gas) in the global energy system. This decline is matched by an increase in the role of renewable energy.</p>
<h2>I’ll say it again: renewable energy is the future</h2>
<p>The technology underpinning renewable energy production from clean, low-cost generation such as wind, solar, hydro-electricity, hydrogen and bio-mass is advancing. </p>
<p>Renewable energy generation is sustainable, better for the environment, low in emissions, and affordable. Reliability is improving at a rapid rate. A <a href="https://www.energyglobal.com/solar/14092020/rystad-energy-australia-gas-and-coal-to-be-overtaken-by-renewables/">recent report</a> indicates electricity generated by solar photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind farms from 2026 will overtake the combined power production from coal and gas. </p>
<p>The combined solar and wind capacity will grow to an estimated 41.4 gigawatts in 2023 from 26.4 gigawatts this year. By contrast, coal and gas capacity will shrink to 35.3 gigawatts in 2023 from 39.1 gigawatts this year. </p>
<p>The report is based on the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) Step Change Scenario, which models a shift to renewables. It includes rapid adjustments in technology costs and a “well below 2°C” scenario as part of its 20-year <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/aemo-models-step-change-shift-to-renewables-for-20-year-planning-blueprint-97802/">planning blueprint</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-the-coronavirus-pandemic-can-teach-us-about-tackling-climate-change-134399">Here's what the coronavirus pandemic can teach us about tackling climate change</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Yes, there are challenges in shifting from a centralised grid and developing new transmission capacity. </p>
<p>But these are the challenges we need to be investing in. Not a new gas plant that’s likely to be a stranded asset in the not-too-distant future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146196/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Under a rapidly changing climate, it’s not just about keeping the lights on. We not only want energy, but we want to breathe clean air, have enough food and live in a sustainable community.Samantha Hepburn, Director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resources Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1391122020-05-21T04:54:48Z2020-05-21T04:54:48ZNSW has approved Snowy 2.0. Here are six reasons why that’s a bad move<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336632/original/file-20200521-102651-1j6n1zt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=534%2C398%2C5504%2C3612&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The controversial Snowy 2.0 project has mounted a major hurdle after the New South Wales government today <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/21/snowy-hydro-20-approved-by-nsw-government-as-part-of-covid-19-economic-stimulus">announced approval</a> for its main works.</p>
<p>The pumped hydro venture in southern NSW will pump water uphill into dams and release it when electricity demand is high. The federal government says it will act as a giant battery, backing up intermittent energy from by wind and solar. </p>
<p>We and <a href="https://npansw.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Snowy-2.0-Open-Letter.pdf">others</a> have <a href="https://npansw.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Snowy-2.0-Open-Letter.pdf">criticised</a> the project on several grounds. Here are six reasons we think Snowy 2.0 should be shelved.</p>
<h2>1. It’s really expensive</h2>
<p>The federal government announced the Snowy 2.0 project without a market assessment, cost-benefit analysis or indeed even a <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/why-snowy-20-is-a-writeoff-from-the-start-20180104-h0d9z4">feasibility study</a>. </p>
<p>When former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull unveiled the Snowy expansion in March 2017, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-23/snowy-hydro-2.0-decision-made-by-turnbull-in-less-than-two-weeks/8551134">he said</a> it would cost A$2 billion and be commissioned by 2021. This was revised upwards several times and in April last year, Snowy Hydro awarded a <a href="https://www.salini-impregilo.com/en/media/press-releases/salini-impregilo-wins-snowy-2-0-hydropower-megacontract-worth-au-5-1b-3-228b-in-australia">A$5.1 billion contract</a> for partial construction.</p>
<p>Snowy Hydro has not costed the transmission upgrades on which the project depends. TransGrid, owner of the grid in NSW, <a href="https://www.transgrid.com.au/what-we-do/projects/regulatory-investment-tests/Documents/TransGrid%20PSCR_Reinforcing%20NSW%20Southern%20Shared%20Network.pdf">has identified options</a> including extensions to Sydney with indicative costs up to A$1.9 billion. Massive extensions south, to Melbourne, will also be required but this has not been costed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Tumut 3 scheme, with which Snowy 2.0 will share a dam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Snowy Hydro Ltd</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. It will increase greenhouse gas emissions</h2>
<p>Both Snowy Hydro Ltd and its owner, the federal government, say the project will help expand renewable electricity generation. But it won’t work that way. For at least the next couple of decades, <a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-is-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing-it-will-push-carbon-emissions-up-not-down-133006">analysis suggests</a> Snowy 2.0 will store coal-fired electricity, not renewable electricity. </p>
<p>Snowy Hydro says it will pump the water when a lot of wind and solar energy is being produced (and therefore when wholesale electricity prices are low).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-is-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing-it-will-push-carbon-emissions-up-not-down-133006">Snowy 2.0 is a wolf in sheep's clothing – it will push carbon emissions up, not down</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But wind and solar farms produce electricity whenever the resource is available. This will happen irrespective of whether Snowy 2.0 is producing or consuming energy.</p>
<p>When Snowy 2.0 pumps water uphill to its upper reservoir, it adds to demand on the electricity system. For the next couple of decades at least, coal-fired electricity generators – the next cheapest form of electricity after renewables – will provide Snowy 2.0’s power. Snowy Hydro has denied these claims. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Khancoban Dam, part of the soon-to-be expanded Snowy Hydro scheme.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Snowy Hydro Ltd</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. It will deliver a fraction of the energy benefits promised</h2>
<p>Snowy 2.0 is supposed to store renewable energy for when it is needed. Snowy Hydro <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Snowy-2-Project-Update_DECEMBER_2018_web.pdf">says</a> the project could generate electricity at its full 2,000 megawatt capacity for 175 hours – or about a week.</p>
<p>But the maximum additional pumped hydro capacity Snowy 2.0 can create, in theory, is less than half this. The reasons are technical, and you can read more <a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-20-will-not-produce-nearly-as-much-electricity-as-claimed-we-must-hit-the-pause-button-125017">here</a>. </p>
<p>It comes down to a) the amount of time and electricity required to replenish the dam at the top of the system, and b) the fact that for Snowy 2.0 to operate at full capacity, dams used by the existing hydro project will have to be emptied. This will result in “lost” water and by extension, lost electricity production.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>4. Native fish may be pushed to extinction</h2>
<p>Snowy 2.0 involves building a giant tunnel to connect two water storages – the Tantangara and Talbingo reservoirs. By extension, the project will also connect the rivers and creeks connected to these reservoirs.</p>
<p>A small, critically endangered native fish, the stocky galaxias, lives in a creek upstream of Tantangara. This is the last known population of the species.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The stocky galaxias.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hugh Allan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An invasive native fish, the climbing galaxias, lives in the Talbingo reservoir. Water pumped from Talbingo will likely transfer this fish to Tantangara.</p>
<p>From here, the climbing galaxias’ capacity to climb wet vertical surfaces would enable it to reach upstream creeks and compete for food with, and prey on, stocky galaxias – probably pushing it into extinction. </p>
<p>Snowy 2.0 is also likely to spread two other problematic species – redfin perch and eastern gambusia – through the headwaters of the Murrumbidgee, Snowy and Murray rivers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-threatens-to-pollute-our-rivers-and-wipe-out-native-fish-135194">Snowy 2.0 threatens to pollute our rivers and wipe out native fish</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>5. It’s a pollution risk</h2>
<p>Snowy Hydro says its environmental impact statement addresses fish transfer impacts, and potentially serious water quality issues.</p>
<p>Four million tonnes of rock excavated to build Snowy 2.0 would be <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-05/snowy-hydro-plans-raise-enironmental-concerns/10075224">dumped into</a> the two reservoirs. The rock will contain potential acid-forming minerals and other harmful substances, which threaten to pollute water storages and rivers downstream. </p>
<p>When the first stage of the Snowy Hydro project was built, comparable rocks were dumped in the Tooma River catchment. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262973181_The_Tooma_River_Project_-_Interdisciplinary_Probes_into_Ill-defined_and_Unpredictable_Contamination">Research in 2006</a> suggested the dump was associated with eradication of almost all fish from the Tooma River downstream after rainfall.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336635/original/file-20200521-102678-tg7uut.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336635/original/file-20200521-102678-tg7uut.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336635/original/file-20200521-102678-tg7uut.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336635/original/file-20200521-102678-tg7uut.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336635/original/file-20200521-102678-tg7uut.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336635/original/file-20200521-102678-tg7uut.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336635/original/file-20200521-102678-tg7uut.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Snowy 2.0 threatens to pollute pristine Snowy Mountains rivers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Schopier/Wikimedia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>6. Other options were not explored</h2>
<p>Many competing alternatives can provide storage far more flexibly for a fraction of Snowy 2.0’s price tag. These alternatives would also have far fewer environmental impacts or development risks, in most cases none of the transmission costs and all could be built much more quickly.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/want-energy-storage-here-are-22-000-sites-for-pumped-hydro-across-australia-84275">Expert analysis in 2017</a> identified 22,000 potential pumped hydro energy storage sites across Australia. </p>
<p>Other alternatives include chemical batteries, encouraging demand to follow supply, gas or diesel generators, and re-orienting more solar capacity to capture the sun from the east or west, not just mainly the north. </p>
<h2>Where to now?</h2>
<p>The federal government, which owns Snowy Hydro, is yet to approve the main works. </p>
<p>Given the many objections to the project and how much has changed since it was proposed, we strongly believe it should be put on hold, and scrutinised by independent experts. There’s too much at stake to get this wrong.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-gifs-that-explain-how-pumped-hydro-actually-works-112610">Five gifs that explain how pumped hydro actually works</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Lintermans received funding from Snowy 2.0 to consolidate previous fish knowledge for the Snowy 2.0 study area. He is the Chair of the NSW Fisheries Scientific Committee and a member of the ACT Scientific Committee.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Snowy 2.0 has been a lightning rod for controversy. From cost-blowouts to climate impacts and threats to native fish, experts say there are many reasons why it should be put on hold.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityMark Lintermans, Associate professor, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1351942020-04-26T19:39:57Z2020-04-26T19:39:57ZSnowy 2.0 threatens to pollute our rivers and wipe out native fish<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330266/original/file-20200424-126817-siewod.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C6%2C2035%2C1355&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Schopier/Wikimedia</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government’s Snowy 2.0 energy venture is controversial for many reasons, but one has largely escaped public attention. The project threatens to devastate aquatic life by introducing predators and polluting important rivers. It may even push one fish species to extinction.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/our-scheme/snowy20/approvals/eis/">environmental impact statement</a> for the taxpayer-funded project is almost 10,000 pages long. Yet it fails to resolve critical problems, and in one case seeks legal exemptions to enable Snowy 2.0 to wreak environmental damage.</p>
<p>The New South Wales government is soon expected to grant the project environmental approval. This process should be suspended, and independent experts should urgently review the project’s environmental credentials.</p>
<h2>Native fish extinctions</h2>
<p>Snowy Hydro Limited, a Commonwealth-owned corporation, is behind the Snowy 2.0 project in the Kosciuszko National Park in southern NSW. It involves building a giant tunnel to connect two water storages – the Tantangara and Talbingo reservoirs. By extension, the project will also connect the rivers and creeks connected to these reservoirs.</p>
<p>A small, critically endangered native fish, the stocky galaxias, lives in a creek upstream of Tantangara. This is the last known population of the species.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-is-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing-it-will-push-carbon-emissions-up-not-down-133006">Snowy 2.0 is a wolf in sheep's clothing – it will push carbon emissions up, not down</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>An invasive native fish, the climbing galaxias, lives in the Talbingo reservoir (it was introduced from coastal streams when the original Snowy project was built). Water pumped from Talbingo will likely transfer this fish to Tantangara.</p>
<p>From here, the climbing galaxias’ capacity to climb wet vertical surfaces would enable it to reach upstream creeks and compete for food with, and prey on, stocky galaxias – probably pushing it into extinction. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330484/original/file-20200425-163122-cztgzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The stocky galaxias.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hugh Allan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Snowy Hydro has applied for an exemption under NSW biosecurity legislation to permit the transfer of the climbing galaxias and two other fish species: the alien, noxious redfin perch and eastern gambusia.</p>
<p>Redfin perch compete for food with other species and produce many offspring. They are <a href="https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/fishing/pests-diseases/freshwater-pests/species/redfin-perch">voracious, carnivorous predators</a>, known to prey on smaller fish. </p>
<p>Redfin perch also allow the establishment of a fatal fish disease – epizootic haematopoietic necrosis virus – or <a href="https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/fishing/pests-diseases/animal-health/wildfish-shellfish/ehnv">EHN</a>. This disease kills the endangered native Macquarie perch, the population of which below Tantangara is one of very few remaining.</p>
<p>If Snowy 2.0 is granted approval, it is likely to spread these problematic species through the headwaters of the Murrumbidgee, Snowy and Murray rivers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330265/original/file-20200424-126817-1v5vlbi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330265/original/file-20200424-126817-1v5vlbi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330265/original/file-20200424-126817-1v5vlbi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330265/original/file-20200424-126817-1v5vlbi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330265/original/file-20200424-126817-1v5vlbi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330265/original/file-20200424-126817-1v5vlbi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330265/original/file-20200424-126817-1v5vlbi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The climbing galaxias, which threatens the native stocky galaxias.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stella McQueen/Wikimedia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Acid and asbestos pollution</h2>
<p>Four million tonnes of rock excavated to build Snowy 2.0 would be <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-05/snowy-hydro-plans-raise-enironmental-concerns/10075224">dumped into</a> the two reservoirs. Snowy Hydro has not assessed the pollution risks this creates. The rock will contain potential acid-forming minerals and a form of asbestos, which threaten to pollute water storages and rivers downstream. </p>
<p>When the first stage of the Snowy Hydro project was built, comparable rocks were dumped in the Tooma River catchment. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262973181_The_Tooma_River_Project_-_Interdisciplinary_Probes_into_Ill-defined_and_Unpredictable_Contamination">Research in 2006</a> suggested the dump was associated with eradication of almost all fish from the Tooma River downstream after rainfall.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-will-not-produce-nearly-as-much-electricity-as-claimed-we-must-hit-the-pause-button-125017">Snowy 2.0 will not produce nearly as much electricity as claimed. We must hit the pause button</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Addressing the problems</h2>
<p>The environmental impact statement either ignores, or pays inadequate attention to, these environmental problems. </p>
<p>For example, installing large-scale screens at water inlets would be the best way to prevent fish transfer from Talbingo Dam, but Snowy Hydro has dismissed it as too costly.</p>
<p>Snowy Hydro instead proposes a dubious second-rate measure: screens to filter pumped flows leaving Tantangara reservoir, and building a barrier in the stream below the stocky galaxias habitat. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169534712001747">best and cheapest way</a> to prevent damage from alien species is stopping the populations from establishing. Trying to control or eradicate pest species once they’re established is far more difficult and costly.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>We believe the measures proposed by Snowy Hydro are impractical. It would be very difficult to maintain a screen fine and large enough to prevent fish eggs and larvae moving out of Tantangara reservoir and such screens would be totally ineffective at preventing the spread of EHN virus.</p>
<p>A six metre-high waterfall downstream of the stocky galaxias habitat currently protects the critically endangered species from other invasive species threats. But climbing galaxias have an extraordinary ability to ascend wet surfaces. They would easily climb the waterfall, and possibly the proposed creek barrier as well. </p>
<p>Such an engineered barrier has never been constructed in Australia. We are informed that in New Zealand, the barriers have not been fully effective and often require design adjustments.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-governments-electricity-shortlist-rightly-features-pumped-hydro-and-wrongly-includes-coal-114503">The government's electricity shortlist rightly features pumped hydro (and wrongly includes coal)</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Even if the barrier protected the stocky galaxias at this location, efforts to establish populations in other unprotected regional streams would be severely hampered by the spread of climbing galaxias.</p>
<p>Preventing redfin and EHN from entering the Murrumbidgee River downstream of Tantangara depends on the reservoir never spilling. The reservoir has spilled twice since construction in the 1960s, and would operate at much higher water levels when Snowy 2.0 was operating. Despite this, Snowy Hydro says it has “high confidence in being able to avoid spill”. </p>
<p>If dumped spoil pollutes the two reservoirs and Murrumbidgee and Tumut rivers, this would also have potentially profound ecological impacts. These have not been critically assessed, nor effective prevention methods identified.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Tumut 3 scheme, part of the existing Snowy Hydro scheme.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Snowy Hydro Ltd</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking to the future</h2>
<p>Snowy 2.0 will likely make one critically endangered species extinct and threaten an important remaining population of another, as well as pollute freshwater habitats. As others have noted, the project is also questionable on other <a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-is-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing-it-will-push-carbon-emissions-up-not-down-133006">environmental</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-will-not-produce-nearly-as-much-electricity-as-claimed-we-must-hit-the-pause-button-125017">economic</a> grounds.</p>
<p>These potential failures underscore the need to immediately halt Snowy 2.0, and subject it to independent expert scrutiny.</p>
<hr>
<p>In response to the issues raised in this article, a spokesperson for Snowy Hydro said:</p>
<p><em>“Snowy Hydro’s EIS, supported by numerous reports from independent scientific experts, extensively address potential water quality and fish transfer impacts and the risk mitigation measures to be put in place. As the EIS is currently being assessed by the NSW Government we have no further comment.”</em></p>
<hr>
<p>A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that water pumped from Tantangara will likely transfer fish to Talbingo. It should have said water pumped from Talbingo will likely transfer fish to Tantangara.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Lintermans received funding from Snowy 2.0 to consolidate previous fish knowledge for the Snowy 2.0 study area. He is the Chair of the NSW Fisheries Scientific Committee and a member of the ACT Scientific Committee. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The NSW government is soon expected to grant environmental approval to Snowy 2.0. But that process should be halted.John Harris, Adjunct Associate Professor, Centre for Ecosystem Science, UNSW SydneyMark Lintermans, Associate professor, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1330062020-03-23T19:04:31Z2020-03-23T19:04:31ZSnowy 2.0 is a wolf in sheep’s clothing – it will push carbon emissions up, not down<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321505/original/file-20200319-129679-1ws251l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=914%2C443%2C4708%2C3386&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Luka Cochleae/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The massive <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-unveils-snowy-plan-for-pumped-hydro-costing-billions-74686">Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project</a> is soon expected to be granted environmental approval. I and others have criticised the project on several grounds, including its <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/snowy-hydro-20-economics-must-stack-up-20181009-h16en7">questionable financial viability</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-will-not-produce-nearly-as-much-electricity-as-claimed-we-must-hit-the-pause-button-125017">overstated benefits</a> to the electricity system. But Snowy 2.0’s greenhouse gas emissions have barely been discussed.</p>
<p>Both Snowy Hydro and its owner, the federal government, say the project will help <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/our-scheme/snowy20/faqs20/">expand renewable electricity generation</a> (and by extension, contribute to emissions reduction from the energy sector). </p>
<p>However, closer inspection shows it won’t work that way. For at least the next couple of decades, Snowy 2.0 will store coal-fired electricity, not renewable electricity. In fact, I predict Snowy 2.0 will create additional demand for coal-fired generation and lead to an <em>increase</em> in greenhouse gas emissions for the foreseeable future.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Khancoban Dam, part of the soon-to-be expanded Snowy Hydro scheme.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Snowy Hydro Ltd</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The problem explained</h2>
<p>The expanded Snowy Hydro scheme in southern New South Wales will involve pumping water uphill to a reservoir, storing it, and then releasing it downhill to generate electricity when demand is high.</p>
<p>The emissions reduction potential of the project rests on what type of electricity is used to pump the water uphill. Snowy Hydro says it will pump the water when a lot of wind and solar energy is being produced (and therefore when wholesale electricity prices are low).</p>
<p>But the crucial point here is that wind and solar farms produce electricity whenever the resource is available. This will happen irrespective of whether Snowy 2.0 is producing or consuming energy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-will-not-produce-nearly-as-much-electricity-as-claimed-we-must-hit-the-pause-button-125017">Snowy 2.0 will not produce nearly as much electricity as claimed. We must hit the pause button</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When Snowy 2.0 pumps water uphill to its upper reservoir, it adds to demand on the electricity system. The generators that will provide this extra electricity are the ones that would not operate unless Snowy 2.0’s pumping demand was calling them into operation. </p>
<p>These will not be renewable generators since they will be operating anyway. Rather, for the next couple of decades at least, coal-fired electricity generators – the next cheapest form of electricity after renewables – will provide Snowy 2.0’s power.</p>
<p>Snowy Hydro claims Snowy 2.0 will add 2000 megawatts of renewable capacity to the national electricity market. However Snowy 2.0 is a storage device, and its claim to be renewable rests on the source of the electricity that it stores and then reproduces. It is not renewable electricity that Snowy 2.0 will store and reproduce for the foreseeable future. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321502/original/file-20200319-129648-v02lft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321502/original/file-20200319-129648-v02lft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321502/original/file-20200319-129648-v02lft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321502/original/file-20200319-129648-v02lft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321502/original/file-20200319-129648-v02lft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321502/original/file-20200319-129648-v02lft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321502/original/file-20200319-129648-v02lft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Snowy 2.0 scheme will lead to more coal use in the foreseeable future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why this matters</h2>
<p>Ageing coal-fired generaters will account for a smaller share of Australia’s electricity production over time as they become uneconomic and <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2018-09/burke_best_jotzo_2018_closure_of_coal-fired_power_stations_in_australia-local_umemployment_effects_ccep_working_paper_1809_centre_for_climate_economics_policy_anu_0.pdf">close down</a>. But <a href="https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2020-integrated-system-plan-isp">projections from the Australian Energy Market Operator</a> show coal will make up a significant proportion of electricity production for the next two decades. </p>
<p>It is only when all coal-fired generators have closed (and gas-fired generators have not taken their place) that Snowy 2.0 could claim to be using renewable electricity to power its pumps.</p>
<p>Does this matter? Yes, very much. Using Snowy Hydro’s projections of how much
electricity Snowy 2.0 will pump each year from 2025 to 2047 (the period over which they have developed their projections) I estimate that Snowy 2.0 will, on average, account for 5.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent each year.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-unveils-snowy-plan-for-pumped-hydro-costing-billions-74686">Turnbull unveils Snowy plan for pumped hydro, costing billions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This is clearly a big number – roughly equivalent to the annual greenhouse gas emissions of Australia’s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/4aa038fc-b9ee-4694-99d0-c5346afb5bfb/files/australias-emissions-projections-2019-report.pdf">mineral or chemical industry</a>, and equal to the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/4aa038fc-b9ee-4694-99d0-c5346afb5bfb/files/australias-emissions-projections-2019-report.pdf">annual emissions of 2.4 million cars</a>.</p>
<p>If we assume, conservatively, that emissions have a cost of A$20 per tonne of carbon, then Snowy 2.0 will impose an additional annual cost of A$108 million on the Australian community that will need to be countered by emissions reduction somewhere else in the economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321503/original/file-20200319-129664-1jbwlfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321503/original/file-20200319-129664-1jbwlfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321503/original/file-20200319-129664-1jbwlfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321503/original/file-20200319-129664-1jbwlfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321503/original/file-20200319-129664-1jbwlfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321503/original/file-20200319-129664-1jbwlfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321503/original/file-20200319-129664-1jbwlfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Over 20 years, Snowy 2.0 will lead to more greenhouse gas emissions than three million cars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The NSW government has adopted a target of <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/-/media/OEH/Corporate-Site/Documents/Climate-change/achieving-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-fact-sheet-160604.pdf">net-zero emissions by 2050</a>. But using Snowy Hydro’s projections of pumped energy, average greenhouse gas emissions attributable to Snowy 2.0 over its first decade will increase NSW’s emissions by about 10% of their current levels each year. </p>
<p>This proportion will increase if the government successfully reduces emissions elsewhere.</p>
<p>Of course, emission reduction is not just an issue for the states. The federal
government has been at pains to affirm its commitment to the Paris climate accord. Snowy 2.0 will undermine the achievement of this commitment. </p>
<p>If additional energy storage is needed to stabilise our electricity grid, it can be provided by many alternatives with a much smaller greenhouse gas impact such as demand response, gas or diesel generators, batteries or smaller and more efficient pumped-hydro generators. </p>
<h2>Meeting the climate challenge</h2>
<p>Emissions associated with storage is given little attention in Australia but is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104495">well-researched</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544214002680?via%3Dihub">overseas</a>. Since Australia’s state and federal governments profess a commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, this is a serious omission.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-nbn-and-snowy-hydro-2-0-were-value-for-money-would-we-know-102908">If the NBN and Snowy Hydro 2.0 were value for money, would we know?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Energy storage will increase emissions as long as fossil fuel generators dominate the power system. </p>
<p>In meeting the climate challenge, greenhouse gas emissions must become a more prominent consideration in the planning and approval of all electricity projects, including storage – and especially for Snowy 2.0.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>In response the points raised in this article, Snowy Hydro said Snowy 2.0 would add 2,000 megawatts (MW) of renewable capacity to the national electricity market (NEM).</em></p>
<p><em>“In the absence of Snowy 2.0, the NEM will have to fill the capacity need with other power stations, which would inevitably be fossil-fuelled,” the company said in a statement.</em></p>
<p><em>“Snowy will sell capacity contracts (tantamount to insurance against NEM price volatility and spikes) to a range of NEM counterparties, as it does now and has done for decades.”</em></p>
<p><em>Snowy Hydro said Snowy 2.0 would directly draw wind and solar capacity into the NEM, via the contract market.</em></p>
<p><em>It said this market, rather than the wholesale market, drives investment and electricity generation.</em></p>
<p><em>“Snowy Hydro’s renewable energy procurement program, through which Snowy contracted with 888 MW of wind and solar facilities in 2019, has made the construction of eight new wind and solar projects possible,” Snowy Hydro said.</em></p>
<p><em>“In the NEM, what happens subsequently to the spot price is of little interest to the owners of these facilities, because their revenue is guaranteed through their offtake contracts with Snowy.”</em></p>
<p><em>The company said the energy produced by wind and solar plants, backed by Snowy’s existing large-scale generation fleet, was “the most cost-effective and reliable way to serve the customers of the NEM in the future.”</em></p>
<p><em>Snowy Hydro said Snowy 2.0 would pump water uphill using cheap electricity from wind and solar – often most plentiful when NEM prices are low – rather than expensive electricity from coal.</em></p>
<p><em>“The water is released when prices are high - this is one of the four Snowy 2.0 revenue streams,” it said.</em></p>
<p><em>“Given that Snowy has the water storage capability to pump when electricity prices are low, and generate when electricity prices are high, why would Snowy choose to buy expensive coal-fired energy to pump water uphill at times of high prices?”</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133006/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the next couple of decades, Snowy 2.0 will in fact store coal-fired electricity, not renewable electricity.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1250172019-10-14T19:10:03Z2019-10-14T19:10:03ZSnowy 2.0 will not produce nearly as much electricity as claimed. We must hit the pause button<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296819/original/file-20191014-135529-157a270.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1050%2C850%2C3342%2C2817&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison in front of the Tumut 3 power station at the Snowy Hydro Scheme. New analysis suggests the benefits of Snowy 2.0 have been overstated.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government’s much-vaunted <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/our-scheme/snowy20/">Snowy Hydro expansion</a> is supposed to smooth out the bumps in electricity supply as Australia transitions to renewables. But not only is the project a bad deal for taxpayers, our analysis suggests it will deliver a fraction of the energy benefits promised.</p>
<p>Fossil-fuel power generators store coal or gas at the point of production. This means electricity can mostly be created on demand when homes and businesses need it. Renewable energy cannot do this. If wind or sun is not abundant, solar panels and wind turbines may not produce enough electricity to meet demand. At other times they might produce more than required.</p>
<p>The Snowy 2.0 project is supposed to provide a solution to this problem - storing renewable energy for when it is needed. </p>
<p>The project’s cost and time estimates have blown out massively. It would now be surprising if Snowy 2.0, including the transmission upgrades it relies on, comes in at <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/03/snowy-2-0-vision-cost/">less than A$10 billion</a> or is finished before 2027.</p>
<p>But there is another serious problem. Our analysis has revealed that of the extra pumped hydro capacity promised by the project, less than half can be delivered. There is now overwhelming evidence the project should be put on hold.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296823/original/file-20191014-135525-wzb0ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Tumut 3 scheme, with which Snowy 2.0 will share a dam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Snowy Hydro Ltd</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The problems we know about: cost and time blowouts</h2>
<p>The list of possible alternatives to Snowy 2.0 is long. Aside from other pumped hydro projects, it includes chemical batteries, encouraging demand to follow supply, gas or diesel generators, and re-orienting renewable generators to capture the wind or sun when it is less plentiful. </p>
<p>But despite this plethora of options, the federal government announced the Snowy 2.0 project without a market assessment, cost-benefit analysis or indeed even a <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/why-snowy-20-is-a-writeoff-from-the-start-20180104-h0d9z4">feasibility study</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-governments-electricity-shortlist-rightly-features-pumped-hydro-and-wrongly-includes-coal-114503">The government's electricity shortlist rightly features pumped hydro (and wrongly includes coal)</a>
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<p>When former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced the expansion project in March 2017 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-23/snowy-hydro-2.0-decision-made-by-turnbull-in-less-than-two-weeks/8551134">he said</a> it would cost A$2 billion and be commissioned by 2021. This was revised upwards several times and in April this year, a A$5.1 billion contract for partial construction was awarded. This excludes the costs of transmission and other considerable expenses.</p>
<p>The main contractor says the project <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-09/snowy-hydro-2.0-cost-and-timeline-blows-out/10983998">will take eight years to build</a> - bringing us to 2027 before the full scheme is completed. We will happily wager that more delays and cost increases will be announced.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296824/original/file-20191014-135505-3rrajs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296824/original/file-20191014-135505-3rrajs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296824/original/file-20191014-135505-3rrajs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296824/original/file-20191014-135505-3rrajs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296824/original/file-20191014-135505-3rrajs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296824/original/file-20191014-135505-3rrajs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296824/original/file-20191014-135505-3rrajs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull during a tour of Tumut 3 power station when announcing the expansion in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucas Cochairs/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Snowy Hydro has not costed the transmission upgrades upon which the project depends. TransGrid, owner of the grid in New South Wales, <a href="https://www.transgrid.com.au/what-we-do/projects/regulatory-investment-tests/Documents/TransGrid%20PSCR_Reinforcing%20NSW%20Southern%20Shared%20Network.pdf">has identified options</a> including extensions to Sydney with indicative costs up to A$1.9 billion. Massive extensions south to Melbourne will also be required.</p>
<p>Snowy Hydro contends it should not pay for the new transmission lines because the benefits would flow to the entire grid, not just its venture. In other words Snowy Hydro argues, conveniently, that we should count the benefits but ignore the costs when thinking about their project. </p>
<h2>The numbers simply do not add up</h2>
<p>The Snowy 2.0 project <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Snowy-2-Project-Update_DECEMBER_2018_web.pdf">grandly claims</a> it could generate at its full 2,000 megawatt capacity for 175 hours - or about a week. This capacity can also be expressed as 350 gigawatt hours (GWh).</p>
<p>Energy Minister Angus Taylor has talked up the project’s superiority to smaller-capacity alternatives <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/12/snowy-20-malcolm-turnbulls-pet-project-given-go-ahead-by-board">such as batteries</a>.</p>
<p>But the maximum additional pumped hydro capacity Snowy 2.0 can create, in theory, is less than half this. The reasons are technical, but worth taking the time to understand.</p>
<p>The figure below outlines the main physical features that define Snowy 2.0. It includes four dams: Tantangara, Talbingo, Jounama and Blowering. For simplicity, we have numbered these from 1-4 in the following explanation. </p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296837/original/file-20191014-135505-14dl09f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>When Snowy 2.0 generates electricity, water will be released from Dam 1 at the top of the system. It will flow through a long tunnel to the smaller Dam 2. The flow of water drives turbines which generate energy. When the turbines are reversed, the water is pumped back to the top to continue the cycle.</p>
<p>For Snowy 2.0 to produce the 350 GWh of electricity claimed, the top dam must be full and all that water released through the system. But replenishing the top dam after this event would take many months of pumping water from elsewhere in the system, and use up 40% more electricity than was originally generated. So the 350 GWh would never be achieved because it is extremely inefficient and inflexible.</p>
<p>In reality, the pumped hydro capacity of Snowy 2.0 is defined by the amount of water that the smaller Dam 2 can hold. If the scheme was a closed system, with no other water flowing in or out, it could produce around 230 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity.</p>
<p>But the system does not exist in isolation. Part of the existing Snowy Hydro scheme, known as Tumut 3, also uses Dam 2. It creates pumped hydro electricity by cycling water between that dam and the even smaller Dam 3 below it.</p>
<p>For Snowy 2.0 to operate at full cyclical capacity, Dam 2 must be empty to receive the water. That would entail emptying Dam 2 into the smaller Dam 3 and from there to Dam 4 at the bottom of the system. This water could not be used again to generate electricity. This “lost” water would have generated 60 GWh worth of electricity in the Tumut 3 scheme.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296826/original/file-20191014-135487-1iala1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Khancoban Dam, part of the soon-to-be expanded Snowy Hydro scheme.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Snowy Hydro Ltd</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This means that as a cyclical pumped hydro system, Snowy 2.0 does not add 230 GWh of capacity. When you subtract the 60 GWh from the 230 GWh, Snowy 2.0 adds just 170 GWh of recyclable pumped hydro. This is less than half the claimed storage capacity.</p>
<p>And this is the maximum cyclical capacity in theory only. Snowy 2.0 would never produce continuously for the time needed to generate and then pump 230 GWh because it would never be economically viable to run it this way. </p>
<p>In practice if Snowy 2.0’s lower dam is operated in future as it is now – almost always close to full – the cycling capacity of Snowy 2.0 may be as low as 40 GWh – around one tenth of the promised number.</p>
<h2>What does all this mean?</h2>
<p>These facts put Snowy 2.0 in a completely different light. There are many competing alternatives that can provide storage far more flexibly for a fraction of Snowy 2.0’s price tag. These alternatives would also have far fewer environmental impacts or development risks, in most cases none of the transmission costs and could be built much more quickly.</p>
<p>It is always difficult to press the pause button on a major project once it has begun. But the evidence for doing this is overwhelming. In pursuit of the public interest, the federal government should put the project on hold and ask a reputable investment bank to publicly advise, perhaps through the Productivity Commission, what Snowy 2.0 would be worth if built. </p>
<p>A credible independent valuation would establish with some confidence how deeply Snowy Hydro will have its hands in the public’s pockets. A panel of independent experts should then be asked to publicly advise whether taxpayer money is needed to meet the demands of a renewables-dominated power system, and if so, the best way it should be spent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New analysis revealed less than half the extra pumped hydro capacity promised by Snowy 2.0 can be delivered. There is now overwhelming evidence the project should be put on hold.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1126102019-03-06T19:12:40Z2019-03-06T19:12:40ZFive gifs that explain how pumped hydro actually works<p>People have used moving water to create energy for thousands of years. Today, pumped hydro is the most common form of grid-connected energy storage <a href="https://www.energystorageexchange.org">in the world</a>.</p>
<p>This technology is in the spotlight because it pairs so well with solar and wind renewable energy. During the day, when solar panels and wind farms may be generating their highest level of energy, people don’t need really need much electricity. Unless it is stored somewhere the energy is lost.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-hydro-scheme-will-be-left-high-and-dry-unless-we-look-after-the-mountains-74830">Snowy hydro scheme will be left high and dry unless we look after the mountains</a>
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<p>Pumped hydro can cheaply and easily store the excess energy, releasing it again at night when demand rises.</p>
<p>Here’s how it all works:</p>
<h2>How it works</h2>
<p>Put as simply as possible, it involves pumping water to a reservoir at the top of a hill when energy is in plentiful supply, then letting it flow back down through a turbine to generate electricity when demand increases.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/507/Sc01.gif" width="100%"></p>
<p>Like all storage systems, you get less energy <em>out</em> than you put <em>in</em> – in this case, generally around <a href="http://energystorage.org/energy-storage/technologies/pumped-hydroelectric-storage">80% of the original input</a> – because you lose energy to friction in the pipes and turbine as well as in the generator. For comparison, lithium ion batteries are around <a href="https://researchinterfaces.com/lithium-ion-batteries-grid-energy-storage/">90-95% efficient</a>, while hydrogen energy storage is less than <a href="http://energystorage.org/energy-storage/technologies/hydrogen-energy-storage">50% efficient</a></p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/508/Sc02.gif" width="100%"></p>
<p>The benefit is we can store a lot of energy at the top of the hill and keep it there in a reservoir until we need the energy back again. Then it can be released through the pipes (this is called “penstock”) to generate electricity. This means pumped hydro can create a lot of additional electricity when demand is high (for example, during a heatwave). </p>
<p>The disadvantage of pumped hydro is you need to have two reservoirs separated by a significant elevation difference (more than 200m is typically required, more than 300m is ideal). So it doesn’t work where you don’t have hills. However, research has identified <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-energy-storage-here-are-22-000-sites-for-pumped-hydro-across-australia-84275">22,000 potential sites</a> in Australia. </p>
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<p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-energy-storage-here-are-22-000-sites-for-pumped-hydro-across-australia-84275">Want energy storage? Here are 22,000 sites for pumped hydro across Australia</a>
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<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/513/Sc03.gif" width="100%"></p>
<p>Pumped hydro is traditionally paired with relatively inflexible coal or nuclear power stations, using under-utilised electricity when demand is low (weekends and nighttime), then providing additional generation when demand increases during the day and into the evening. </p>
<p>With the rapid increase in deployment of wind and solar, pumped hydro is again gaining interest. This is because the output of wind and solar plant is subject to the variability in the weather. For example, solar power plants generate the most electricity in the middle of the day, while demand for electricity is often highest in the evening. The wind might die down for hours or even days, then suddenly blow a gale. Pumped hydro can play a key role in smoothing out this variability.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/516/Sc04.gif" width="100%"></p>
<p>If the electricity being produced by wind and solar plant is greater than demand, then the energy has to be curtailed (and is lost), unless we have a way to store it. Using this excess power to pump water up hill means the solar or wind energy is not wasted and the water can be held in reservoirs until demand rises in the evening.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/518/Sc05.gif" width="100%"></p>
<p>There are lots of different kinds of energy storage technologies, each with their own advantages and disadvantages. For large-scale grid-connected systems where many hours of storage are required, pumped hydro is the <a href="https://www.lazard.com/media/438042/lazard-levelized-cost-of-storage-v20.pdf">most economically viable</a> option.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-hydro-gets-a-boost-but-seawater-hydro-could-help-south-australia-74442">Snowy Hydro gets a boost, but 'seawater hydro' could help South Australia</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112610/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Dargaville has received funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) for energy system modelling projects. He works as a consultant with Energy Australia on pumped hydro projects, including the Cultana seawater pumped hydro project in South Australia.</span></em></p>Everything you need to know about pumped hydro.Roger Dargaville, Senior lecturer, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1127732019-03-01T06:15:15Z2019-03-01T06:15:15ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on Morrison’s climate pitch to voters and Warringah votes research<figure>
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<p>University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor Deep Saini speaks with Michelle Grattan about the week in politics. They discuss Scott Morrison’s attempt to burnish the Coalition’s climate change credentials; focus group research into the independent push in Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah; the appointment of the new chair of the ABC, Ita Buttrose; and the conviction of Cardinal George Pell.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112773/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan provides views for the ABC.</span></em></p>Deep Saini speaks with Michelle Grattan about the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1029082018-09-10T06:37:16Z2018-09-10T06:37:16ZIf the NBN and Snowy Hydro 2.0 were value for money, would we know?<p>When Malcolm Turnbull wrote to his electorate last week outlining his
achievements he listed economic growth, jobs, same-sex marriage and a number of really big construction projects including the Western Sydney airport, Melbourne to Brisbane inland rail, and Snowy Hydro 2.0. </p>
<p>Some people will like those and other big projects, some will not. But, combined, they are going to cost more than $75 billion over the next ten years, so it is worth asking as a separate (threshold) question whether they are likely to be value for money.</p>
<p>For some of them, such as the National Broadband Network or the Gonski education
reforms, its worth asking whether we might get better value if we spent even more. Turnbull’s downsizing of Labor’s original NBN plan made it cheaper, but not necessarily better. </p>
<p>For goods provided for a social purpose, value for money is about more than profit. But social returns often get left out of the equations because they are harder to measure. In a paper to be launched on Monday night as part of the University of NSW Grand Challenge on Inequality, we put forward a <a href="http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/richardholden/assets/social-return-accounting.pdf">mechanism for considering both together</a>.</p>
<h2>How it’s done in the private sector</h2>
<p>In the private sector any significant investment decision requires a summation of future costs and benefits discounted (cut) by a few per cent each year to accord with the reality that future costs and benefits matter less to us than immediate payoffs or costs.</p>
<p>If the project makes sense when the discount rate is set at or above the firm’s cost of capital (or hurdle rate of return) it is worth agreeing to. If its benefits are so far into the future that they only make sense with a very low discount rate it is said to be not worth proceeding with.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nbn-how-a-national-infrastructure-dream-fell-short-77780">The NBN: how a national infrastructure dream fell short</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There is no reason why we can’t do the same for public sector projects as well, although assessing the benefits is complicated. </p>
<p>This is where the revolution in empirical economics and social science over the last two decades comes in.</p>
<h2>How to measure what’s hard to measure</h2>
<p>Consider a proposal to lengthen the school day by two hours. The costs are relatively easy to calculate: some more teacher time, slightly larger utility bills. Maybe some more pencils. </p>
<p>The benefits are more complex. Does a longer school day lead to better educational outcomes? What does that lead to late in life? How can we tell?</p>
<p>Modern social science has a well-refined method for answering these questions – the randomised controlled trial. Take 50 randomly selected schools and lengthen their school day, then compare the outcomes on standardised tests to a group of control schools. This reveals the true, causal impact of a longer school day on test scores.</p>
<p>Test scores are obviously not an end in themselves, but these can then be mapped all the way through into high school and post-secondary outcomes, and then into labour market and later life outcomes. This would naturally involve understanding the impact on earnings, but also outcomes such as crime and physical and mental health.</p>
<p>Answering these questions persuasively is what modern social science, armed with amazing data and great computing power, does extremely well. Just as a pharmaceutical trial gives one group, say, heart medication and another group a placebo, randomised trials can increasingly guide public policy. </p>
<h2>Trying it out</h2>
<p>Our study includes a demonstration of that sort of analysis on the money that will spent on the National Broadband Network and the National Disability Insurance Scheme.</p>
<p>We find that, taking into account social benefits such as telemedicine and the expansion of skills, the money being spent on the NBN will make sense even at a very high discount rate of 15.2%. Labor’s original more expensive fibre-to-the-premises model would have made sense at an even higher discount rate of 21.1%.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-much-does-the-ndis-cost-and-where-does-this-money-come-from-95924">Explainer: how much does the NDIS cost and where does this money come from?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The benefits of the National Disability Insurance System are harder to measure. But, when account is taken of the value of reducing stress in carers and value of independence to those being cared for, it too becomes worthwhile at reasonable discount rates.</p>
<p>Politics, and political debate, will still need ultimately to control these sorts of investment decisions.</p>
<p>But the debate would be far better if we had a common language for assessing the relevant costs and benefits, and a more principled way of prioritising the competing demands on the public purse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We are getting closer to being able to apply private sector rigour to the examination of public sector projects with social benefits.Rosalind Dixon, Professor of Law, UNSW SydneyRichard Holden, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/842752017-09-20T20:36:43Z2017-09-20T20:36:43ZWant energy storage? Here are 22,000 sites for pumped hydro across Australia<p>The race is on for storage solutions that can help provide secure, reliable electricity supply as more renewables enter Australia’s electricity grid.</p>
<p>With the support of the <a href="https://arena.gov.au/">Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA)</a>, we have identified 22,000 potential <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-pushing-water-uphill-can-solve-our-renewable-energy-issues-28196">pumped hydro energy storage (PHES)</a> sites across all states and territories of Australia. PHES can readily be developed to balance the grid with any amount of solar and wind power, all the way up to 100%, as ageing coal-fired power stations close.</p>
<p>Solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind are now the leading two generation technologies in terms of <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-is-now-the-most-popular-form-of-new-electricity-generation-worldwide-81678">new capacity installed worldwide each year</a>, with coal in third spot (see below). PV and wind are likely to accelerate away from other generation technologies because of their lower cost, large economies of scale, low greenhouse emissions, and the vast availability of sunshine and wind.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186725/original/file-20170920-905-186dz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186725/original/file-20170920-905-186dz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186725/original/file-20170920-905-186dz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186725/original/file-20170920-905-186dz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186725/original/file-20170920-905-186dz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186725/original/file-20170920-905-186dz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186725/original/file-20170920-905-186dz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186725/original/file-20170920-905-186dz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New generation capacity installed worldwide in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ANU/ARENA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although PV and wind are variable energy resources, the approaches to support them to achieve a reliable 100% renewable electricity grid are straightforward: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Energy storage in the form of pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) and batteries, coupled with <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/demand-management-4872">demand management</a>; and</p></li>
<li><p>Strong interconnection of the electricity grid between states using high-voltage power lines spanning long distances (in the case of the National Electricity Market, from North Queensland to South Australia). This allows wind and PV generation to access a wide range of weather, climate and demand patterns, greatly reducing the amount of storage needed.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>PHES accounts for <a href="http://www.energystorageexchange.org/projects/data_visualization">97% of energy storage worldwide</a> because it is the cheapest form of large-scale energy storage, with an operational lifetime of 50 years or more. Most existing PHES systems require dams located in river valleys. However, off-river PHES has vast potential.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-pushing-water-uphill-can-solve-our-renewable-energy-issues-28196">How pushing water uphill can solve our renewable energy issues</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Off-river PHES requires pairs of modestly sized reservoirs at different altitudes, typically with an area of 10 to 100 hectares. The reservoirs are joined by a pipe with a pump and turbine. Water is pumped uphill when electricity generation is plentiful; then, when generation tails off, electricity can be dispatched on demand by releasing the stored water downhill through the turbine. Off-river PHES typically delivers maximum power for <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217309568">between five and 25 hours</a>, depending on the size of the reservoirs.</p>
<p>Most of the potential PHES sites we have identified in Australia are off-river. All 22,000 of them are outside national parks and urban areas. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fXKQ3/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="374"></iframe>
<p>The locations of these sites are shown below. Each site has between 1 gigawatt-hour (GWh) and 300GWh of storage potential. To put this in perspective, our <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217309568">earlier research</a> showed that Australia needs just 450GWh of storage capacity (and 20GW of generation power) spread across a few dozen sites to support a 100% renewable electricity system. </p>
<p>In other words, Australia has so many good sites for PHES that only the best 0.1% of them will be needed. Developers can afford to be choosy with this significant oversupply of sites. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186711/original/file-20170920-932-y2tyew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186711/original/file-20170920-932-y2tyew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186711/original/file-20170920-932-y2tyew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186711/original/file-20170920-932-y2tyew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186711/original/file-20170920-932-y2tyew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186711/original/file-20170920-932-y2tyew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186711/original/file-20170920-932-y2tyew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186711/original/file-20170920-932-y2tyew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pumped hydro sites in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ANU/ARENA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here is a state-by-state breakdown of sites (detailed maps of sites, images and information can be found <a href="http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/">here</a>):</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>NSW/ACT</strong>: Thousands of sites scattered over the eastern third of the state</p>
<p><strong>Victoria</strong>: Thousands of sites scattered over the eastern half of the state</p>
<p><strong>Tasmania</strong>: Thousands of sites scattered throughout the state outside national parks</p>
<p><strong>Queensland</strong>: Thousands of sites along the Great Dividing Range within 200km of the coast, including hundreds in the vicinity of the many wind and PV farms currently being constructed in the state</p>
<p><strong>South Australia</strong>: Moderate number of sites, mostly in the hills east of Port Pirie and Port Augusta</p>
<p><strong>Western Australia</strong>: Concentrations of sites in the east Kimberley (around Lake Argyle), the Pilbara and the Southwest; some are near mining sites including Kalgoorlie. Fewer large hills than other states, and so the minimum height difference has been set at 200m rather than 300m. </p>
<p><strong>Northern Territory</strong>: Many sites about 300km south-southwest of Darwin; a few sites within 200km of Darwin; many good sites in the vicinity of Alice Springs. Minimum height difference also set at 200m.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The maps below show synthetic Google Earth images for potential upper reservoirs in two site-rich regions (more details on the site search are available <a href="http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/research/phes/">here</a>). There are many similarly site-rich regions across Australia. The larger reservoirs shown in each image are of such a scale that only about a dozen of similar size distributed across the populated regions of Australia would be required to stabilise a 100% renewable electricity system.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186714/original/file-20170920-895-1xoqwau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186714/original/file-20170920-895-1xoqwau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186714/original/file-20170920-895-1xoqwau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186714/original/file-20170920-895-1xoqwau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186714/original/file-20170920-895-1xoqwau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186714/original/file-20170920-895-1xoqwau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186714/original/file-20170920-895-1xoqwau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186714/original/file-20170920-895-1xoqwau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Araluen Valley near Canberra. At most, one of the sites shown would be developed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ANU/ARENA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186715/original/file-20170920-910-1kfv5b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186715/original/file-20170920-910-1kfv5b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186715/original/file-20170920-910-1kfv5b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186715/original/file-20170920-910-1kfv5b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186715/original/file-20170920-910-1kfv5b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186715/original/file-20170920-910-1kfv5b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186715/original/file-20170920-910-1kfv5b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186715/original/file-20170920-910-1kfv5b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Townsville, Queensland. At most, one of the sites shown would be developed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ANU/ARENA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The chart below shows the largest identified off-river PHES site in each state in terms of energy storage potential. Also shown for comparison are the Tesla battery and the solar thermal systems to be installed in South Australia, and the <a href="http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/our-scheme/snowy20/">proposed Snowy 2.0 system</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186716/original/file-20170920-932-qezv5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186716/original/file-20170920-932-qezv5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186716/original/file-20170920-932-qezv5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186716/original/file-20170920-932-qezv5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186716/original/file-20170920-932-qezv5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186716/original/file-20170920-932-qezv5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186716/original/file-20170920-932-qezv5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186716/original/file-20170920-932-qezv5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Largest identified off-river PHES sites in each state, together with other storage systems for comparison.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ANU/ARENA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The map below shows the location of PHES sites in Queensland together with PV and wind farms currently in an advanced stage of development, as well as the location of the Galilee coal prospect. It is clear that developers of PV and wind farms will be able to find a PHES site close by if needed for grid balancing.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186732/original/file-20170920-905-51wj4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186732/original/file-20170920-905-51wj4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186732/original/file-20170920-905-51wj4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186732/original/file-20170920-905-51wj4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186732/original/file-20170920-905-51wj4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186732/original/file-20170920-905-51wj4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186732/original/file-20170920-905-51wj4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186732/original/file-20170920-905-51wj4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar PV (yellow) and wind (green) farms currently in an advanced stage of development in Queensland, together with the Galilee coal prospect (black) and potential PHES sites (blue).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ANU/ARENA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Annual water requirements of a PHES-supported 100% renewable electricity grid would be less than one-third that of the current fossil fuel system, because wind and PV do not require cooling water. About 3,600ha of PHES reservoir is required to support a 100% renewable electricity grid for Australia, which is 0.0005% of Australia’s land area, and far smaller than the area of existing water storages.</p>
<p>PHES, batteries and demand management are all likely to have prominent roles as the grid transitions to 50-100% renewable energy. Currently, about 3GW per year of wind and PV are being installed. If this continued until 2030 it would be enough to supply half of Australia’s electricity consumption. If this rate is doubled then Australia will reach 100% renewable electricity in about 2033. </p>
<p>Fast-track development of a few excellent PHES sites can be completed in 2022 to balance the grid when <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-true-cost-of-keeping-the-liddell-power-plant-open-83634">Liddell</a> and other coal-fired power stations close.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84275/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Stocks receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for R&D projects on solar photovoltaics and integration of renewable energy. He owns shares in Origin Energy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bin Lu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Electricity storage is vital to the stability of a renewable energy grid. The world’s favourite form of storage is pumped hydro – and researchers have located thousands of candidate sites.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityBin Lu, PhD Candidate, Australian National UniversityMatthew Stocks, Research Fellow, ANU College of Engineering and Computer Science, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/769762017-05-03T04:41:50Z2017-05-03T04:41:50ZWith gas and hydro plans, the government is looking at the whole picture<p>Australia, like many countries, is grappling with an energy market in transition. It’s a politically fraught topic, but two major policy developments create hope for a better approach. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced last week that he will <a href="https://theconversation.com/gas-export-restrictions-imposed-to-ensure-domestic-supply-76740">restrict gas exports</a> and reserve supplies for Australians. This comes on the heels of an ambitious plan to increase hydroelectricity capacity in Tasmania. </p>
<p>Following unproductive talks with gas producers to try to ensure a secure domestic supply, the government has said it will force companies to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-intervenes-in-gas-market-to-tackle-surging-domestic-prices-20170426-gvsuyb.html">reserve gas for the local market if a shortage is forecast</a>. This is designed to reduce domestic retail prices for gas and ensure energy security. </p>
<p>Just one week before that, Turnbull <a href="https://www.hydro.com.au/about-us/news/2017-04/supporting-australia%E2%80%99s-energy-transition">presented proposals</a> to invest in pumped hydroelectricity in Tasmania, by redeveloping the old Tarraleah scheme, enhancing the Gordon Power Station and exploring several new schemes. This follows the announcement of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-unveils-snowy-plan-for-pumped-hydro-costing-billions-74686">A$2 billion expansion</a> of the Snowy Hydro scheme and a plan to build a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-22/pumped-hydro-power-in-spencer-gulf-energy-australia/8292596">pumped hydro plant</a> at Spencer Gulf in South Australia. </p>
<p>Both announcements are a potent reminder that the energy security challenge exists on different scales. The gas plan highlights short-term energy security concerns, with the ability to respond quickly to sudden changes in supply and demand. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the hydro plan zeroes in on the challenge of long-term energy security. Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-20/tasmania-hydo-power-output-to-double-under-plan-to-reuse-water/8457572">optimistic</a> that, if approved, the plans would set Tasmania up “for the next 100 years”; Turnbull <a href="http://australianenergyreview.com.au/hydro-tas-expansion-in-works/">said</a> it would make the state “the renewable energy battery of the nation”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167638/original/file-20170503-4093-yxvnwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167638/original/file-20170503-4093-yxvnwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167638/original/file-20170503-4093-yxvnwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167638/original/file-20170503-4093-yxvnwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167638/original/file-20170503-4093-yxvnwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167638/original/file-20170503-4093-yxvnwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167638/original/file-20170503-4093-yxvnwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167638/original/file-20170503-4093-yxvnwi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Plans to develop the Gordon Dam in Tasmania will massively increase hydro power output.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">david_pointing/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Will these plans work?</h2>
<p>Investment in long-term development is essential, even when it’s difficult to assess future returns. A <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-20/tasmania-hydo-power-output-to-double-under-plan-to-reuse-water/8457572">feasibility study</a> is evaluating the Tasmanian plans, but it’s clear that with better connection to the mainland, more hydro would boost Australia’s capacity for energy storage. It could also ease export limitations on Australian gas companies.</p>
<p>Of course, it is also tricky to predict the success of short-term initiatives. <a href="https://theconversation.com/economists-split-over-turnbulls-plan-to-reserve-gas-for-australian-customers-76790">Economists are split</a> on whether gas export restrictions will lessen concerns about an east coast supply crisis. </p>
<p>Regardless of whether the restrictions work exactly as intended, the government has signalled that it will be a temporary measure. Australia needs sustained policy follow-through. </p>
<p>The only long-term solution is to increase national output, starting with Tasmanian hydro and other cheap, cleaner energy installations. </p>
<p>The Clean Energy Council has said that increasing Tasmanian hydro will be <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/2017/April/hydro-tasmania-basslink-turnbull.html">part of the solution to high gas prices</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Renewable energy is now the lowest-cost form of energy it is possible to build in Australia today. A balanced approach, incorporating hydro, renewable energy such as solar and wind and other forms of grid-scale storage, makes a lot of sense.</p>
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<p>Consumers on Australia’s east coast could have their energy cheap and clean. Once built, hydro power has attractively <a href="http://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/resources/other-renewable-energy-resources/hydro-energy">low operating costs</a> and, with better regional interconnection, the increased capacity for storage could make for a smarter, more resilient Australian grid. The low <a href="http://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/resources/other-renewable-energy-resources/hydro-energy">greenhouse gas emissions</a> from hydropower are added value.</p>
<p>Australia has decades of hydro power experience under its belt, with <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/policy-advocacy/reports/clean-energy-australia-report.html">40%</a> of its renewable electricity now generated by hydro. Hydro power contributes about <a href="http://www.iea.org/topics/renewables/subtopics/hydropower/">85%</a> of renewable electricity worldwide. The question, therefore, is not “will it work?”, but “how quickly can we make it happen?”</p>
<p>The plans for gas export restrictions will first undergo consultations, with Turnbull expecting them to take effect as early as July 1. Plans for Tasmanian hydro will likely take longer, as funding has been secured only for the feasibility studies at this stage.</p>
<p>If Turnbull’s plans to restrict gas exports succeed and east coast energy security concerns continue, increasing Tasmanian hydro and other new energy installations could lead to a reduction in gas export restrictions and a gradually more self-reliant Australian market.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76976/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cle-Anne Gabriel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Energy security requires both short and long planning. Recent gas and hydro announcements are a promising start towards some proper joined-up thinking.Cle-Anne Gabriel, Lecturer in Sustainability, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/747562017-03-17T00:48:47Z2017-03-17T00:48:47ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the energy crisis<figure>
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<p>University of Canberra deputy vice-chancellor (academic) and vice-president Nicholas Klomp and professorial fellow Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics, including the energy crisis, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s meeting with the gas companies, the federal government’s plan to boost generation from the Snowy Hydro scheme, and Labor winning the Western Australian election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74756/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The University of Canberra’s Nicholas Klomp and Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraNicholas Klomp, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Education, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/746962017-03-16T12:16:10Z2017-03-16T12:16:10ZGrattan on Friday: Turnbull turns to water as power debate fires up<p>Malcolm Turnbull had the media troop to Talbingo in the Snowy Mountains for Thursday’s big Hydro announcement. But then his press conference couldn’t be beamed direct because there was no way of transmitting the signal.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the news cycle was taken up with the pictures of the extraordinary biffo between South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill and federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg when they appeared together in Adelaide.</p>
<p>It was all a metaphor for the shambolic national energy debate, in which the process is chaotic and politics trumps policy.</p>
<p>Remember the report the government commissioned last year from Chief Scientist Alan Finkel on the future security of the electricity market? Finkel continues to work away methodically, amid the madness.</p>
<p>His final report is not due until mid-year. But the government in December dismissed his interim report’s apparent positive nod towards an emissions intensity scheme, and it is putting down various markers ahead of the final one.</p>
<p>In February it signalled it saw merit in giving some help to build new “clean coal” power stations. Now has come a A$2 billion plan to increase the capacity of the Snowy Hydro by 50%, with Turnbull declaring himself a “nation building prime minister”. </p>
<p>The plan has been languishing in Snowy Hydro’s bottom drawer for years. Its unveiling came a day after Turnbull extracted a promise from LNG exporters to provide more local supply, with the threat the government would use its power over exports if they don’t deliver.</p>
<p>Despite a cabinet committee being set up on energy, ad hocery and special interests abound as the government struggles with the issue that Turnbull declared in February would be “a defining debate in this parliament”.</p>
<p>Turnbull is throwing out ideas and initiatives as he goes, rather than producing an integrated blueprint.</p>
<p>This week’s South Australian $550 million energy plan, including a new state-owned gas-fired power station, might have been a response to a problem the state should not have allowed to happen, and may be open to criticism, but at least it had an overall coherence.</p>
<p>Turnbull knows that putting a price on carbon is needed. But he can’t embrace that because it’s anathema to the conservative Liberals and the Nationals.</p>
<p>Equally, as a man with a good eye to what happens in the business world, he is aware that investors won’t be going down the coal route. But the Nationals, especially those from Queensland, are heavily committed to coal.</p>
<p>So whatever the final federal government energy policy looks like, it will be distorted to a greater or lesser extent by the political constraints Turnbull is under.</p>
<p>The process has also eschewed any attempt to pursue constructive federal-state relations. Ever since the seismic SA blackout last year, the federal government has unrelentingly attacked the state Labor government over its heavy commitment to renewable energy.</p>
<p>Weatherill gave it back in spades when he was standing beside Fydenberg on Thursday. Turnbull said Weatherill’s behaviour “spoke volumes about the premier’s state of mind at the moment”. That’s no doubt true.</p>
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<p>It is not surprising that Weatherill, facing an election next year, has found the constant federal campaign against him over the top. It has gone well beyond what could be considered reasonable policy criticism and politicking, and is unlikely to do the Turnbull government much good when the public would prefer a co-operative approach on a crucial issue.</p>
<p>Alongside the energy debate the government is grappling with what will be a centrepiece of the May budget – ways to make housing more affordable. Like energy security, it is one of those “back to basics” issues.</p>
<p>At the moment the housing debate is sounding a bit like the tax debate of the Turnbull government’s earlier days – the table is laden with options.</p>
<p>One option in the chattersphere is to allow young people to use their superannuation to help them get into the market.</p>
<p>When then-treasurer Joe Hockey flirted with this proposition Turnbull said it would be “a thoroughly bad idea” – which is as true now as it was then, and is a view taken by some senior ministers.</p>
<p>Michael Sukkar, assistant minister to the treasurer, who is working on the budget’s housing affordability plan, has been pushing the super proposal. Reportedly Treasurer Scott Morrison is open-minded, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann is dubious, and Revenue Minister Kelly O'Dwyer, who has day-to-day ministerial responsibility for superannuation, is against.</p>
<p>Apart from super being for retirement, critics argue that using it for housing would just drive up prices.</p>
<p>Turnbull was still focused on supply when pressed this week. “The key to having more affordable housing is to build more housing,” he said.</p>
<p>“And so the argument against demand-side measures in isolation is that if all you do is pump up demand without increasing supply, what you end up doing is pushing up the price of housing and there is no net benefit.</p>
<p>"It is a complicated issue but the one fundamentally substantial point is that if you want to have more affordable housing you’ve got to build more housing and that requires changes to zoning and planning, it requires governments, and that’s mostly state and local governments, to make it easier for new dwellings to be built.”</p>
<p>Morrison has flagged extensive changes to arrangements for social housing as part of the housing package.</p>
<p>In raising expectations of what it can do to make house buying more affordable, the government is walking on dangerous ground.</p>
<p>As with energy policy, it is hemmed in by its own political constraints.</p>
<p>Action to curb negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount would be desirable. But the government has trashed Labor’s proposals on these for a year. When there was recent speculation about a possible capital gains tax change for property investors, the government seemed to rule it out. Some sources maintain it is not dead, but others say it would pose a problem with the “base”.</p>
<p>While it continues to refuse to consider action in these areas the government ties its hands.</p>
<p>Especially with the constraints, the room to make a real difference on housing affordability is limited. But with this budget vital for Turnbull’s political fortunes, one thing the government must avoid is its affordability package failing to meet the spruiking that precedes it.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/kwxda-68af74?from=yiiadmin" data-link="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/kwxda-68af74?from=yiiadmin" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74696/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Malcolm Turnbull had the media troop to Talbingo in the Snowy Mountains for Thursday’s big Hydro announcement.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.