tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/snp-conference-9935/articlesSNP conference – The Conversation2018-06-08T15:01:49Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/980332018-06-08T15:01:49Z2018-06-08T15:01:49ZSNP deputy leader: Keith Brown’s unconvincing win is bad omen for Nicola Sturgeon<p>White smoke from the Scottish Nationalists: Keith Brown <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44397652">has been</a> elected the party’s deputy leader at the start of this year’s <a href="https://www.snp.org/conference">conference</a> in Aberdeen. His 55.2% polling defeated nearest opponent Julie Hepburn’s 44.8% by a fairly modest margin. </p>
<p>Brown, the cabinet secretary for economy, jobs and fair work, was the only MSP standing after most major candidates decided not to enter the race. A former royal marine who fought in the Falklands campaign in 1982, he was considered the candidate of the party establishment. A rather dull but safe pair of hands, he had <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/indyref2-ahead-vows-keith-brown-after-elected-snp-depute-leader-1-4751545">this to say</a> about a second independence referendum in his victory speech:</p>
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<p>I know that decision is in the safest of hands and I am absolutely confident that the person you have just selected me to deputise for – Nicola Sturgeon – will steer us towards that decision.</p>
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<p>Hepburn is a longstanding party insider who is currently research manager for MP Stuart McDonald. She campaigned for badly needed internal reforms, arguing that the party has failed to capitalise on the large growth in <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-membership-jumps-by-89-460-to-over-115-000-1-4033361">membership</a> in the months after losing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/alex-salmond-resigns-following-defeat-in-scottish-independence-referendum-31816">first referendum</a> in 2014. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222389/original/file-20180608-191943-8q90fv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Julie Hepburn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">STV</span></span>
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<p>She was no protest candidate, but her final tally may have benefited from the votes of Chris McEleny, the left-leaning SNP councillor who was eliminated in the first round. McEleny had demanded a referendum be held within 18 months, and it would have been extremely uncomfortable for Sturgeon had he won. </p>
<p>In electing Brown the membership has backed the leadership’s wait-and-see position, but it’s hardly a ringing endorsement. It is the strongest signal yet of disquiet within the party over its direction on independence. </p>
<h2>Separatist schism</h2>
<p>The SNP is divided over an unenviable choice. Announce the date of a second referendum, knowing a defeat would be a near fatal blow to the main aim of the party – or wait and potentially lose the chance for years to come in the likely event that the Scottish parliament’s pro-independence majority is overturned in the 2021 election. </p>
<p>Sturgeon has <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-says-she-wait-for-brexit-deal-to-decide-on-indyref2-a8159046.html">indicated that</a> she will decide in the autumn once the Brexit deal becomes clearer. She and her advisers are well aware that the fortunes of independence are tied to those of a party which has held power in Edinburgh since 2007. </p>
<p>Brexit continues to be the joker in the pack on attitudes to Scottish independence, however. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36599102">Being outvoted</a> by the English and Welsh on remaining in the EU has <a href="http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line">not made</a> much difference to Scotland’s desire for divorce from the UK. Yet the National Centre for Social Research <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/news/15817338.Majority_back_economy_of_independent_Scotland/">found earlier this year</a> that more Scots believed leaving the UK would make Scotland better off than the opposite. Don’t rule out the possibility that fears around the economic impact of a hard Brexit are colouring this view. </p>
<p>Inextricably linked to the timing of the referendum is the issue of currency, an Achilles heel for the Yes movement last time around. Sturgeon duly set up a Sustainable Growth Commission to sketch out a new way forward. Chaired by former MSP and economist Andrew Wilson, it published a report last month <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-prospect-of-4-100-per-voter-deliver-scottish-independence-heres-what-the-indyref-evidence-tells-us-97264">arguing that</a> Scotland should retain the pound for at least a decade and introduce tight controls on deficits and spending. </p>
<p>This was intended to be the start of a more reasoned case for independence that dealt with both the fears of 2014 No voters about the currency and concerns from business, particularly the financial sector. Instead, it has been problematic to say the least. </p>
<p>Predictably, Scottish Labour under the more left-wing leadership of Richard Leonard see an opportunity to revive the old jibe of the SNP being “tartan Tories”, <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/uk-regions/scotland/news/95479/scottish-labour-blasts-%E2%80%98cuts-commission%E2%80%99-pro-union-parties">attacking</a> the report as a “cuts commission”. The first minister <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/news/16259510.Sturgeon_defends_Growth_Commission_against_left-wing_critics/">insisted that</a> the report is anti-austerity – but days later the London-based Institute for Fiscal Studies undermined her <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ifs-snp-growth-commission-report-is-continuation-of-austerity-1-4750637">by claiming</a> it would in fact continue the austerity agenda. </p>
<p>Significantly, the SNP is not going to formally debate the report at conference – instead Keith Brown will now chair a series of national assemblies within the party that will debate it in the weeks and months ahead. Yet the report is a sure sign that after 11 years in power, the leadership has begun to lose its touch – compounding <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeons-falling-popularity-could-be-disastrous-for-the-scottish-independence-cause-78957">the feeling</a> around the relatively poor results at last year’s UK election. </p>
<h2>Challenge Nicola</h2>
<p>Ahead of Brown’s lukewarm victory, pressure had already been growing on the party from grassroots organisations. A series of pro-independence rallies have been organised independently of the party by <a href="https://allunderonebanner.com/home">All Under One Banner</a>. One, <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/around-40-000-take-part-in-pro-independence-march-in-glasgow-1-4735359">in Glasgow</a> last month, attracted tens of thousands of supporters – the biggest public demonstration since the 2003 Iraq war. It clearly demonstrates that Yes supporters can still be mobilised. </p>
<p>The SNP is caught between supporters pushing for another referendum, especially those who are pro-EU, and the large proportion of the electorate who don’t want one. Support for independence is still less than 50% in the polls, but it is hard to be sure what to conclude from this. A pessimist would say it’s a signal not to hold another referendum – an optimist might say it is quite favourable considering the SNP has made little effort to mobilise support. </p>
<p>What’s evident is that, on the constitutional question, Scotland remains as divided as it was in 2014. It will take more than the applause for Sturgeon and her new deputy at this year’s rather stage-managed conference to make any inroads into that. The SNP leadership is performing a delicate balancing act, and finding it increasingly difficult to keep anyone happy. Whether Sturgeon can find a way back onto the front foot is going to be the ultimate test of her leadership in the coming months.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98033/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William McDougall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Three stage-managed cheers for Keith Brown – the left is getting restless over independence.William McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/747842017-03-17T18:01:38Z2017-03-17T18:01:38ZNicola Sturgeon is playing great politics with indyref2 but victory still long way off<p>Who ended the week with the upper hand in the constitutional battle between the UK and Scottish governments? It started with Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, wrong footing London with <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39254695">her plan</a> for a second independence referendum in either late 2018 or early 2019. As a result, Theresa May <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-article-50-wont-be-triggered-this-week-theresa-may-eu-referendum-latest-news-rome-treaty-a7627676.html">appeared to</a> delay triggering the Brexit clause, <a href="http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html">Article 50</a> of the Treaty on European Union, until the end of March. </p>
<p>But on the eve of the <a href="https://www.snp.org/conference">SNP spring conference</a> in Aberdeen, the prime minister sought to seize back the initiative: with the <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/theresa-may-now-is-not-the-time-for-indyref2-1-4393668">repeated message</a> of “now is not the time”, she signalled she wouldn’t discuss a potential referendum before the Brexit negotiations are complete. Sturgeon’s team <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/17/nicola-sturgeon-rejects-holding-advisory-referendum-without/">responded</a> by insisting that the vote would happen on her timetable, while the first minister hinted at “other options” if she is formally turned down by the UK government. </p>
<p>May looks to be in the stronger position. The Conservative government <a href="https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2017/03/13/stephen-tierney-a-second-independence-referendum-in-scotland-the-legal-issues/">can in theory</a> prevent a referendum by withholding permission, while opinion polls <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/13/half-scots-do-not-back-second-independence-referendum-brexit/">tend to</a> indicate that a majority of Scottish voters do not want a referendum without knowing the results of the Brexit negotiations first. In appealing over the heads of the Scottish government, May’s position will play well both with voters most committed to Brexit and those fearful of greater uncertainty. </p>
<h2>Risk and reward</h2>
<p>Nevertheless the approach carries risks. After the Scottish parliament votes in favour of Sturgeon’s proposal on Wednesday March 22 – all but inevitable because of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland">pro-independence majority</a> between the SNP and Scottish Greens – Sturgeon will claim to have a democratic mandate. This will rally supporters and create a Scotland versus Westminster fight. The debate will shift from the pros and cons of independence to who has the right to decide on the vote. </p>
<p>The pro-independence side is guaranteed to exploit the Conservative democratic deficit to the hilt throughout. And May has the further weakness that she has no personal mandate at UK level either, relying instead on David Cameron’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results">victory in 2015</a>. If she were to decide for other reasons to address this by calling an early election, it could provide Sturgeon with a fresh Westminster mandate for a referendum if the Scottish nationalists were to repeat their near clean sweep of 2015. </p>
<p>In the short term, this polarisation between Sturgeon standing up for Scotland and May refusing to alter her course from hard Brexit might suit both their parties at the upcoming council elections in May. These are likely to be viewed as a test for both leaders – as a barometer of May’s early premiership and an opportunity for the SNP to take the last big prize in Scottish politics, Glasgow City Council. In this kind of nationalist/unionist battle, Labour and the Liberal Democrats are both likely to struggle. </p>
<p>The question though is how long the UK government can delay even discussing a potential referendum. To do so for the two years of Brexit negotiations will be difficult. This will depend on avoiding a sustained Yes lead in opinion polls and is unlikely to succeed without a concerted and risky campaign warning about the dangers of independence to the Scottish economy, currency and borders. Sturgeon’s latest hints about “other options” <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/17/nicola-sturgeon-rejects-holding-advisory-referendum-without/">might mean</a> there would be petitions and protests to contend with along the way. </p>
<h2>Plan B?</h2>
<p>Sturgeon no doubt expected the response that has come from Westminster. With May <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/03/brexit-bill-passed-mps-reject-lords-amendments">unwilling</a> to agree to amendments over the Brexit bill from the House of Lords and fighting High Court battles over the process, she was hardly likely to discuss a referendum for Scotland until after Brexit negotiations were completed.</p>
<p>This being the case, might she be thinking about holding a referendum without Westminster’s permission? Such an option is highly risky and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/scotland-and-a-second-independence-referendum-what-is-the-legal-situation-74468">issues of legality</a> would be paramount. Certainly the SNP government would want to avoid a situation where the process was blocked in the courts. As Catalonia <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/81-of-catalans-vote-to-secede-from-spain-in-symbolic-referendum-2014-11?r=US&IR=T">demonstrated</a> in 2014, holding such a referendum without permission can result in No voters boycotting it and rendering the result meaningless. The <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/17/nicola-sturgeon-rejects-holding-advisory-referendum-without/">early indications</a> from the nationalists are that they are not heading in this direction. </p>
<p>For May, fighting on two fronts is never advisable. And when she does finally agree to a referendum it will be treated by the SNP as a victory over Westminster. May’s recent response makes that seem inevitable sooner or later, while Sturgeon <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39299305">has indicated</a> she is willing to negotiate on timing. One big question both sides will be asking themselves is who benefits more from holding the referendum after Brexit. Until more is known about the terms of the final Brexit deal, this is almost impossible to answer. </p>
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<p>In the meantime, the SNP’s focus will be working out a strategy of how to win a referendum while maintaining and increasing support in the polls for independence. Crucially it has still to formulate arguments on the currency and economy, both of which were <a href="https://medium.com/@gordonguthrie/why-we-lost-a5085f807703">key weaknesses</a> in 2014; and also how to deal with the important minority of potential Yes voters who don’t want EU membership. </p>
<p>Indeed, if May had wanted to wrong foot the SNP she could have offered an earlier referendum. The UK government’s obsession with avoiding anything that makes it look weak to EU negotiators has limited its options, however.</p>
<p>Instead over the next few months the nationalists will have to work on the substance of their independence proposals. Sturgeon may score numerous political points over this second referendum, but lose sight of the underlying case and it will not matter much when it comes to the crunch.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74784/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William McDougall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Scottish and UK leaders exchanged fire this week – so, who’s winning?William McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/670262016-10-14T09:15:15Z2016-10-14T09:15:15ZDon’t be fooled by Sturgeon: we’ll see no indyref2 for Scotland until Brexit is clearer<p>Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/13/nicola-sturgeon-challenges-may-with-second-referendum-bill-scottish-independence-snp-conference">announcement</a> of a draft bill to make a second independence referendum viable unsurprisingly delighted the audience at the SNP conference in Glasgow. But what should the rest of us make of it? My gut tells me Scotland is heading for a vote on independence again, but I wouldn’t yet bet my house on it – the decision remains wrapped up in several unresolved issues.</p>
<p>Above all, the SNP don’t want to hold a second referendum until they think they can win. Support for independence <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-vote-not-increased-demand-8839746">is currently</a> not far from 2014 levels, despite Brexit. It sounds simple to hold back a referendum until enough people tell you they’ll vote yes, but who can say if that’s likely? Many Scots don’t know what their choice will be in a referendum until they can make sense of recent events. </p>
<p>So Brexit might be a game changer in a year or two, but it isn’t right now – <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14798246.Hard_Brexit_is_not_a_game_changer_for_SNP__new_poll_suggests/">according to</a> the latest poll, even a so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-whats-the-difference-between-hard-and-soft-brexit-66524">hard Brexit</a> in which the UK leaves the European single market would not be enough to give the yes side a decisive lead. Sturgeon may yet have to choose to pursue a referendum in circumstances she would clearly prefer to avoid: before the polls change in her favour. </p>
<h2>Unclear Brexit</h2>
<p>The lack of clarity in the polls is probably because it is too soon to know what Brexit will look like. The idea of Brexit is still too abstract and not yet related to the arguments that might win the day for a yes vote. If you don’t really know what something is, how it relates to your life, and who you should blame for that outcome, how can you express a view on its effect on your political preferences?</p>
<p>The SNP will likely base their case for a second referendum on a combination of simple statements about Brexit: England is pulling Scotland out of the EU against our will; the Tories caused this problem; we want to clear up the mess they caused; it’s rich for them to warn us about disastrous economic risks around independence; and we want to be a cosmopolitan Scotland, not the rump of little England. </p>
<p>The risk is that Scottish voters might see the Brexit vote as a cautionary tale. It is not easy to argue that the best response to the catastrophic effects of a withdrawal from a major political, economic and social union should be to withdraw from another major political, economic and social union. </p>
<p>This is particularly true now that Brexit has opened up <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/14797212.Brexit_could_lead_to_more_powers_being_devolved_to_Holyrood__Scottish_Secretary_hints/">the possibility</a> of more devolution, which had previously been more or less <a href="https://theconversation.com/scots-should-forget-devo-max-its-not-possible-and-wasnt-offered-32119">closed off</a>. A feasible alternative to independence is to push for more autonomy in the areas that are devolved and currently “Europeanised” – including agriculture, fishing and environmental policies. </p>
<p>The UK could grant that and perhaps convincingly argue that the Scots were “<a href="http://www.scottishconstitutionalfutures.org/OpinionandAnalysis/ViewBlogPost/tabid/1767/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9644/Jim-Gallagher-The-Brexit-Referendum-a-Cautionary-Tale-and-an-Unexpected-Opportunity.aspx">equals on a range of areas</a>”. When the former Scottish health secretary, Alex Neil, <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alex-neil-scotland-could-achieve-neo-independence-without-referendum-1-4240250">talks about</a> “neo-independence”, this is the sort of thing he has in mind. </p>
<h2>Advantage Sturgeon?</h2>
<p>So I’d describe Sturgeon’s announcement as a short-term win: why not give your most active audience something to cheer about while you wait for events to unfold? But predicting the timing of a referendum is no easier than before. It will be the point at which (a) we know enough about the meaning of Brexit to judge its likely impact, but (b) there is still time to respond within the timetable of the UK’s exit from the EU. </p>
<p>Some people are worrying that the UK government might scupper the SNP’s chances directly, by withholding consent for a second referendum. Maybe it would be better to be tricksy indirectly, being vague about the impact of Brexit and having people in Scotland worry about making a choice before they know its effect.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67026/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cairney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The independence bill is a short-term win but no game-changer.Paul Cairney, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/493162015-10-18T11:56:17Z2015-10-18T11:56:17ZSturgeon’s ‘blame Westminster’ routine hides dismal SNP record as party of government<p>The Scottish National Party annual conference in Aberdeen just ended was the last big gathering of the party before elections for a new Scottish parliament next May. The SNP has been in power in Scotland since 2007 and the <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/poll-snp-course-landslide-victory-6061943">polls put them on course to win</a> a third straight term next spring. This is extraordinary. </p>
<p>The SNP exists for only one reason: to seek the break-up of Britain and independence for Scotland. It won the right to put that issue to the Scottish people in an historic referendum in September 2014, but Scots voted against independence by 55.3% to 44.7%, so Scotland remains – with England, Wales and Northern Ireland – one of the four constituent nations of the United Kingdom.</p>
<p>The SNP’s defeat in the referendum ought to have caused it traumatic shock. But the referendum losers have emerged victorious in the year since. The 45% who voted Yes to independence rallied to the SNP’s cause, whereas the 55% who voted No are otherwise divided between those on the left (who support Labour), those on the centre-right (who support the Conservatives) and those few who remain in the middle (who used to support the Liberal Democrats). </p>
<p>A vote of 45% per cent is enough only to come second in a two-horse race – but in the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system it is enough for a landslide. Thus, in the May 2015 general election the SNP won an astonishing 56 of Scotland’s 59 seats in the House of Commons, reducing the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties to one Scottish seat each.</p>
<p>That the SNP has managed to consolidate the support of close to half the Scottish population is a remarkable feat. For years support for independence was stubbornly stuck at about 30%. That the referendum result was 55%/45% rather than 65%/35% owed a great deal to the Yes movement taking on the character of a mass protest movement. </p>
<p>Harnessing the same energy and, indeed, using much of the same rhetoric, as has fired Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain, the argument for independence became ever more stridently left-wing and anti-austerity as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/scotland-decides-14">referendum campaign</a> wore on. The “45” is really the conjoining of two groups: a “30” who are ideologically committed to independence and would vote for it come what may and a “15” many of whom had never previously voted for the SNP and who embraced “the idea of Yes” as an act of protest.</p>
<p>The SNP has managed to hang on not only to its natural 30% but to the full 45% by pulling off the trick of being, in fact, the party of power in Scotland while at the same time taking on the appearance of a party of opposition. The nationalists are expert in mining the rich seam of Scottish grievance politics, which holds that everything is someone else’s fault, pointing the finger of blame at the Tories, the English, or Westminster. Its tactic in the forthcoming Scottish parliamentary election will doubtless be more of the same, for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/oct/15/snp-conference-politics-live#block-561f7c37e4b02ae764b2e1b1">all the bombast we have heard in Aberdeen this week</a> about the party being happy to stand on its record in government.</p>
<h2>Poor performance</h2>
<p>The SNP’s record in government is precisely the terrain the opposition parties in Scotland want to fight the election on, because that record is dismal. It is dismal, in large measure, because the SNP has spent so long on the blame game and on its constitutional obsession with independence that they have governed too little. The devolved arrangements in Scotland were created and are in the process of being further developed by unionists, not nationalists, seeking a way of giving Scots the home rule they crave without breaking up the state. </p>
<p>Plainly, it does not suit the SNP to use their devolved powers to the full. Rather, it suits them to play those powers down, as if the only way in which Scotland could enjoy real autonomy is if Scotland were to leave the UK to become an independent state. In the core devolved areas of health and education, SNP administrations have done as little as possible.</p>
<p>The result is that investment in health <a href="http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/7366">has declined relative to investment in England</a>, that hospital waiting times are growing longer, <a href="http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/13302422.Western_A_E_worst_in_Scotland__31__of_patients_wait_longer_than_FOUR_hours/">alarmingly so in accident and emergenc</a>y, that Scottish schools are struggling to maintain even the most basic standards in key skills such as numeracy, and that further education has been cut horrifically (with <a href="http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/scotland/scottish-student-numbers-down-140-000-in-five-years-1.177844">140,000 college places slashed</a> in Scotland in recent years). </p>
<p>None of these outcomes is the fault of Westminster: <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/first_time_voter/8589835.stm">health and education are fully devolved to Edinburgh</a>, and have been since the inception of devolution in 1999.</p>
<h2>Control freakery</h2>
<p>When the SNP government does exercise its powers, two tendencies are striking. For all its talk of progressive politics, the SNP is a markedly illiberal party in practice. Whether it be bureaucratic interference with family life, the <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/routine-arming-of-scottish-police-officers-backed-1-3585146">covert arming of police officer</a>s, or extensive use of coercive powers <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/24/un-human-rights-body-criticises-police-stop-search-powers-scotland">such as stop and search</a>, Scottish nationalism in power betrays that trend so often seen in national liberators: that the freedom of the nation matters much more than the freedom of the people who inhabit it. </p>
<p>A second tendency is a control-freakish centralisation. Power is hoarded in Edinburgh, not disbursed to the cities and regions of Scotland – there is no equivalent here of George Osborne’s “northern powerhouse” in Manchester and Sheffield. On the contrary, powers are removed from local communities and centralised in the capital. Take policing: when the SNP came to power in 2007 Scotland had eight police forces; <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/apr/01/police-scotland-stephen-house-chief-constable">now we have just the one</a>, accountable to a board appointed directly by Scottish ministers. </p>
<p>A similar move is underway with regard to Scotland’s universities, where SNP ministers are seeking to exert unprecedented controls. Wither academic freedom in Scotland? With <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/bbc-scotland-protests-scottish-independence-referendum-coverage-institutionally-biased-salmond-9732095.html">angry mobs descending on the BBC</a> when the broadcaster dares to run news stories critical of the SNP administration, political freedom in Scotland can feel precarious. SNP ministers may say they oppose any attempt to alter the UK’s human rights laws but, at the same time, the human rights of Scots are repeatedly jeopardised by SNP policy.</p>
<p>Very little of this is understood outside of Scotland. From elsewhere in the UK, the SNP leader, Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, looks the consummate social democrat. Poised, elegant and polished – and passionate in her rhetoric and commitment to social justice – Sturgeon is indeed a great performer. But underneath the act lies an altogether different reality, of an illiberal and centralising government that would rather sit on its hands than use its powers to transform Scotland for the better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Tomkins is a prospective parliamentary candidate for the Scottish Conservatives in May’s Scottish parliamentary election.</span></em></p>The Scottish Nationals’ emphasis on independence is an attempt to distract voters from the party’s woeful performance in office.Adam Tomkins, Professor - John Millar Chair of Public Law, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/255692014-04-14T17:26:34Z2014-04-14T17:26:34ZSalmond courts women and Labour voters – and keeps a close eye on UKIP<p>Of all the party conference speeches SNP leader Alex Salmond has made over the years, <a href="http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/apr/first-minister-alex-salmond-snp-conference-address">Saturday’s in Aberdeen</a> was probably the biggest. As the last conference speech before referendum day on 18 September, his independence pitch had a national and international audience. </p>
<p>In many ways it was a classic Salmond speech. It was directed at activists in the hall as well as the electorate as a whole – or rather two specific and large sections of that electorate: women and Labour voters. </p>
<p>The pitch to Labour voters has been a theme of Salmond speeches for many years. He has been making appeals to them ever since he came into politics in West Lothian in the late 1970s. These appeals have been sufficiently successful that in the 2007 and 2011 Scottish elections, the SNP replaced Labour as the dominant force in Scottish politics. In 2011 this helped it attract a <a href="http://www.socialismtoday.org/163/scotland.html">larger share of the working class vote</a> for the first time. </p>
<p>The party has built its success on occupying a range of formerly popular Labour policies such as free university tuition, free NHS prescription charges and maintaining a public sector health service.</p>
<h2>Vote yes, choose Labour!</h2>
<p>This time Salmond wasn’t asking Labour voters to switch to the SNP, but to vote yes in September in the knowledge that they can return safely to voting Labour afterwards – and a more popular non-Westminster version of Labour at that. </p>
<p>He referred to a “Labour Party leadership that has totally lost its way, that has lost touch with the values of Labour voters”.</p>
<p>“Independence will be good for Scottish Labour,” he said. “The Labour Party, freed from Westminster control, will have the chance to return to its core values: many of which we in this party agree with and share.”</p>
<p>Just like in 1979 and 1997, an alliance of Labour and SNP voters will be sufficient to see the yes campaigners over the line to victory. The thing to understand about the current referendum is that it’s actually quite ideological. The debate reflects centre-left politics, policies and values, which tells you quite a lot about Scottish politics. </p>
<p>The yes camp’s ideological approach dates back to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-18162832">campaign launch in May 2012</a>, when it featured a range of Labour supporters explaining why they would vote for independence. It has continued this type of approach ever since, with Salmond emphasising in his speech on Saturday everything from Scottish Water remaining in public ownership to a pledge to rid Scotland of nuclear weapons post-independence to the NHS being “softened up” by UK government for privatisation.</p>
<h2>Divide and rule</h2>
<p>Contrast this with the ideological incoherence of the no campaign – Better Together – which has Labour sitting next to the pro-austerity Conservatives. This is sufficiently uncomfortable that Labour set up its own campaign group in a bid to keep its large pool of voters in the no camp. </p>
<p>Trying to exploit that divide, Salmond told the party faithful, “The era of Tory governments unelected by the people of Scotland, handing out punishment to the poor and the disabled will be gone and gone for good.”</p>
<p>Regarding Salmond’s appeal to women in Saturday’s speech, another common strand in recent years, <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/06/salmond-the-economy-and-an-uncertain-future-womens-attitudes-to-independence/">the polls have shown</a> men are much more likely to support yes in the referendum. This gender gap used to exist in SNP voting intentions but was closed at the 2011 Scottish election in spectacular fashion. Alongside the SNP’s triumph with working class voters, the party also took the biggest share of women. </p>
<p>Salmond’s appeal to women in his conference speech involved both policy and personnel. He elevated two female ministers, <a href="http://www.angelaconstancemsp.org/">Angela Constance</a> (youth employment) and <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/msps/currentmsps/Shona-Robison-MSP.aspx">Shona Robison</a> (equality) to the Scottish cabinet in a move to ensure that at least 40% of the posts are held by women - reflecting the Scottish government’s intention to achieve the same sort of balance in boardrooms. </p>
<p>“The cabinet is our board as a country, and women will make up 40% if the members of the Scottish cabinet,” he said.</p>
<h2>Up with the kids</h2>
<p>There have also been several policy initiatives on childcare from the Scottish government during the SNP administration and in plans post-independence that were announced back at the <a href="http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/11/9348">launch of the government’s White Paper</a> in November 2013. </p>
<p>“In an independent Scotland, we will build a system of childcare that will be the envy of the world,” Salmond told the conference. “High quality universal childcare and early learning - for all of Scotland’s children. That’s the independence pledge.”</p>
<p>In some senses, the SNP is going a bit Nordic here. In keeping with fellow travellers on the yes side such as the Greens and the Scottish Socialists, the SNP has been looking to its Scandinavian neighbours for policy goals and ideas in pursuit of a fairer society. Again, the contrast with London could not be more pronounced. </p>
<p>In short, there was nothing hugely surprising in this Salmond speech. The first minister used his usual powerful oratory to hammer home the same strategic priorities that have been the SNP’s focus for some time. It was never about producing a game-changing moment but continuing to build the momentum that will energise the grass roots into taking the argument these next few months to community halls, local gatherings and doorsteps around the country. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46373/original/hvvwwbz3-1397480788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46373/original/hvvwwbz3-1397480788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46373/original/hvvwwbz3-1397480788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46373/original/hvvwwbz3-1397480788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46373/original/hvvwwbz3-1397480788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46373/original/hvvwwbz3-1397480788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46373/original/hvvwwbz3-1397480788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46373/original/hvvwwbz3-1397480788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Could Ukip leader Nigel Farage be the man to get Salmond over the line in September?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/european_parliament/10438765746/in/photolist-gUrpnL-8U8fuf-8U5bke-bpMZE9-gUrvfX-cyGqAf-6pihi1-c3EpWG-gUrTiL-7xu18i-7xxNy3-7xxP4S-7xxPoL-6piiym-6piht3-6pihQb-6peadi-6pii23-6pihDE-gUsf1V-bCGVx8-bpMZGd-bpMZAC-gUrq3o-gUrus4-gUrug2-gUrnn1-gUseZT-gUruV8-gUruQZ-gUrmXy-gUrux4-gUrnAh-gUruzi-gUrnDy-du7WTC-du7Yjd-du2nya-du7Rfs-du7ZHf-du2gNR-du2hnK-du7QBA-du2q6R-du82hW-du2iYP-du7TB7-du2kYp-du2oVi-du2kfi">European Parliament</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It was also about helping to provide focus for the European elections next month. A decent showing for the SNP will be very important in increasing the sense that success in September will come. But SNP strategists will be looking closely at UKIP’s showing in England. The stronger they perform, the more the SNP’s narrative about the differences between Scotland and England will be underlined. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25569/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Lynch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Of all the party conference speeches SNP leader Alex Salmond has made over the years, Saturday’s in Aberdeen was probably the biggest. As the last conference speech before referendum day on 18 September…Peter Lynch, Senior Lecturer, Politics, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.