tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/spending-priorities-38003/articlesSpending priorities – The Conversation2023-10-05T12:35:12Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2146762023-10-05T12:35:12Z2023-10-05T12:35:12Z2 in 5 US babies benefit from the WIC nutrition program<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551430/original/file-20231002-19-tihdrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=116%2C0%2C6324%2C2570&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This safety net program helps infants, toddlers and their moms eat right.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/group-of-babies-wearing-diapers-royalty-free-image/200017262-008?adppopup=true">Camille Tokerud/Stone via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551556/original/file-20231002-30-6uxz5c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551556/original/file-20231002-30-6uxz5c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551556/original/file-20231002-30-6uxz5c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551556/original/file-20231002-30-6uxz5c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551556/original/file-20231002-30-6uxz5c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551556/original/file-20231002-30-6uxz5c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551556/original/file-20231002-30-6uxz5c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551556/original/file-20231002-30-6uxz5c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A monthly average of more than <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=106762">6 million U.S. women</a>, infants and young children received benefits in 2022 from the nutrition program known as WIC.</p>
<p>The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, which is federally funded and state-administered, has served hundreds of millions of American families since its <a href="https://www.nwica.org/overview-and-history">inception in 1974</a>. It provides infant formula, food, nutritional education and health care referrals to <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/wic/frequently-asked-questions">low-income pregnant women</a>, the mothers of newborns and very young children, and infants and kids up to 5 years old. The government spent about <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/wic-program/">US$5.7 billion on it in 2022</a>.</p>
<p>At its peak, in 2010, the program was helping feed over <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=44783">half of the babies born that year</a>. Participation in the program subsequently declined. About 2 in 5 of the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr028.pdf">3.7 million babies born in the U.S.</a> in 2022 benefited from WIC.</p>
<p><iframe id="trsO1" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/trsO1/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Long-term benefits</h2>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1CmLVGsAAAAJ&hl=en">sociologist who researches food insecurity</a> and participation in the safety net programs that help people get enough to eat. To do this, I analyze nationally representative data from the University of Michigan’s <a href="https://psidonline.isr.umich.edu/">Panel Study of Income Dynamics</a>, which started in 1968 and is the longest-running longitudinal household panel survey in the world. My colleagues and I have used this data to follow the same children from birth through adulthood, observing how their life circumstances change over time. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306967">research team</a> followed a group of 1,406 individuals from low-income families from birth through ages 20 to 36 years. We looked at reports of food insecurity from their parents during childhood as compared with their own reports of food insecurity as adults living on their own.</p>
<p>We found that food-insecure children who received benefits from WIC and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/extra-snap-benefits-are-ending-as-us-lawmakers-resume-battle-over-program-that-helps-low-income-americans-buy-food-199929">Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP</a>, from 1984 to 2019, at anytime from birth to age 17, were four times more likely to report improved food security years later, as young adults, as compared with those who did not receive SNAP or WIC benefits as kids.</p>
<p>We have also found that being food insecure was correlated with having <a href="https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2021/food-insecurity-during-college-years-linked-to-lower-graduation-rate">fewer years of formal education</a> and a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749379721003792">higher chance of being food insecure</a> in the future.</p>
<h2>Personal experience</h2>
<p>I have also personally seen how WIC can make a big difference for families.</p>
<p>When I was born in 1985, both of my parents were employed – but we lacked health insurance. My mother found out about WIC through the well-baby clinic in Oakland County, Michigan. While she was on leave from work, my father working two jobs and my older sister still under age 5, the program provided us with health exams, food and additional benefits free of charge.</p>
<p>When my mother returned to her position as a public high school teacher, our needs changed. We no longer needed – or received – the assistance.</p>
<p>The results from the national data study tell my story and the story of many other people: Kids from low-income and potentially food-insecure households can realize a better future with public assistance.</p>
<h2>Funding could be interrupted</h2>
<p>Millions of Americans depend on public safety net programs, whether for a month or for years. That assistance will be jeopardized should the government shut down if Congress fails to pass a budget before its mid-November 2023 deadline.</p>
<p>Federal WIC funding doesn’t flow <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/24/federal-government-shutdown-history-list">during government shutdowns</a>. It “stops immediately when the shutdown occurs,” U.S. Agriculture Secretary <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/09/25/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-secretary-of-agriculture-tom-vilsack/">Tom Vilsack told reporters</a> in late September.</p>
<p>But county and state governments can make <a href="https://www.naco.org/resources/what-counties-need-know-when-government-shutdown-happens">contingency plans to prevent disruption</a>. <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/episode/2023/09/28/minn-dept-of-health-wic-will-operate-during-government-shutdown">Minnesota</a> and <a href="https://www.wbur.org/news/2023/09/27/government-shutdown-congress-massachusetts-wic">Massachusetts</a> are among the states doing that.</p>
<p>Even if Congress moves past this budget impasse without a shutdown, the program won’t necessarily be unscathed. House Republicans have been trying to scale it back, and in June the <a href="https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/committee-approves-fy24-agriculture-rural-development-food-and-drug">House Appropriations Committee passed</a> a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/01/wic-cuts-congress-budget-shutdown/">measure that would reduce WIC benefits</a> to trim spending. In contrast, legislation in the <a href="https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/majority/bill-summary-agriculture-rural-development-food-and-drug-administration-and-related-agencies-fiscal-year-2024-appropriations-bill">Senate would instead increase WIC funding</a> in 2024.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214676/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noura Insolera has received funding from USDA-ERS. </span></em></p>Funding for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children quickly halts during government shutdowns.Noura Insolera, Assistant Research Scientist, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064622023-06-01T12:31:37Z2023-06-01T12:31:37ZGetting Social Security on a more stable path is hard but essential – 2 experts suggest a way forward<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528714/original/file-20230528-19-7mz301.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C39%2C5166%2C3475&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">No big Social Security reforms have taken effect since the Reagan administration.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-reagan-speaks-before-signing-the-social-security-news-photo/568872063">David Hume Kennerly/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Social Security is in trouble. </p>
<p>The retirement and disability program has been running a cash-flow deficit since 2010. Its trust fund, which holds US$2.7 trillion, is rapidly diminishing. Social Security’s trustees, a group that includes the secretaries of the departments of Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services, as well as the Social Security commissioner, project that the trust fund will be <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/tr2023.pdf">completely drained by 2033</a>. </p>
<p>Under current law, when that trust fund is empty, Social Security can pay benefits only from dedicated tax revenues, which would by that point cover about <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/tr23summary.pdf">77% of promised benefits</a>. Another way to say this is that when the trust fund is depleted, under current law, Social Security beneficiaries would see a sudden 23% cut in their monthly checks in 2034. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=CwMgD5QAAAAJ">As economists</a> who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=y0lrTOoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">study the Medicare and Social Security programs</a>, we view the above scenario as politically unacceptable. Such a sudden and dramatic benefit cut would anger a lot of voters. Unfortunately, the actions necessary now to avoid it – like raising taxes or cutting benefits – aren’t getting serious consideration today. But we believe there are strategies that could work.</p>
<p><iframe id="QOa9h" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QOa9h/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Where the money for benefits comes from</h2>
<p>Roughly <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/basicfact-alt.pdf">67 million Americans, most of whom are 65 or older</a>, receive Social Security benefits. The agency <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/releases/2021/#8-2021-2">disburses more than $1 trillion annually</a>. It’s the government’s largest single expenditure, constituting nearly <a href="https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/">20% of the total federal budget</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/taxRates.html">Social Security is funded</a> by a payroll tax of 12.4% on wages split equally between workers and employers. Self-employed people pay the entire 12.4%. This payroll tax applies to earnings up to $160,200 as of 2023. The government increases this cap annually based on increases in the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/national-average-wage-index-nawi.asp">National Average Wage Index</a> – a measure that combines wage growth and inflation. The program also receives about 4% of its revenue from a <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/tr2023.pdf">tax on Social Security benefits</a>, though not everyone who receives them has to pay this tax.</p>
<p>Social Security tax revenue stayed relatively flat after 1990. But the costs of the program rose sharply in 2010, in part because of early <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716213499535">retirements in response to the Great Recession</a>.</p>
<p>Social Security spending has recently been growing more rapidly because of a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/11/09/the-pace-of-boomer-retirements-has-accelerated-in-the-past-year/">wave of baby boomer retirements</a>, which added to a decline in the <a href="https://retirementincomejournal.com/article/does-social-security-use-the-wrong-dependency-ratio">number of workers per retiree</a>.</p>
<p>Costs of the program are expected to further exceed the money that’s coming in, which will <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/tr2023.pdf">continue to drain the trust fund</a>, according to the program’s trustees. </p>
<p>Barring immediate action by the government, the trust fund’s exhaustion is only a little more than a decade away. And yet few members of Congress seem willing to do something about it. For example, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3835082-mccarthy-social-security-medicare-cuts-off-the-table/">Social Security reform was not even</a> on the table during the 2023 negotiations over the debt ceiling and spending cuts.</p>
<h2>Trust fund</h2>
<p>Where did the trust fund, which helps cover the program’s costs, come from?</p>
<p>While the Social Security program was collecting surpluses from 1984 to 2009, that extra money funded other spending – keeping other taxes lower than they would have been otherwise and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/historical-tables/">partially covering the budget deficit</a>.</p>
<p>During Social Security’s years of surplus, the excess revenues were credited to the trust fund in the form of <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/specialissues.html">special-issue government bonds</a> that yielded the prevailing interest rates. When those bonds are needed to pay for Social Security expenses, the Treasury redeems them.</p>
<p>Those bonds are components of the <a href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-gross-debt-versus-debt-held-public">government’s $31.4 trillion gross debt</a>. </p>
<h2>Last reformed during the Reagan administration</h2>
<p>Reducing the benefits current retirees receive would be extremely unpopular. Likewise, people now in the workforce who are nearing retirement would certainly object strongly if they were told to expect lower benefits in retirement than they have been promised throughout their careers.</p>
<p>The last time the government made big changes to Social Security was in 1983, during the Reagan administration, when the government enacted reforms that <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/1983amend.html">slowly reduced benefits over time</a>. These changes included raising the full retirement age, a change that is <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/agereduction.html">still being phased in</a>. Because of those changes, workers born in 1960 or later cannot retire with full benefits until age 67 – two years later than the original retirement age.</p>
<p>The 1983 reforms also included increases in the Social Security payroll tax rate from 10.4% in 1983 to 12.4% by 1990, and for the first time levied federal income taxes on higher-income retirees’ benefits. Workers bore the burden of the payroll tax increases and <a href="https://faq.ssa.gov/en-us/Topic/article/KA-02471">higher-income retirees bore the burden of the tax on benefits</a>.</p>
<p>Those changes bolstered the program’s finances, but they no longer suffice.</p>
<p>The bipartisan <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/pcsss/pcsss.html">2001 Commission to Strengthen Social Security</a> tried – and failed – during George W. Bush’s presidency to get Congress to enact reforms to shore up the program’s finances. There’s been no momentum toward resolving the problem since then.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man with gray hair sits at a table in front of a giant replica of a Social Security card." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529392/original/file-20230531-27-mc2adl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">George W. Bush sought to reform Social Security early in his presidency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/george-bush-speaks-about-social-security-during-a-news-photo/525606778">Brooks Kraft LLC/Sygma via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4 principles</h2>
<p>We believe that policymakers and lawmakers need to follow four principles as they consider how to move forward.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>The program should be self-funded in the long run so that its annual revenues match its annual expenses. That way the many questions that arise related to trust fund accounting and whether Social Security tax revenues are being used for their intended purposes would be eliminated. </p></li>
<li><p>The reform burden should be shared across generations. Current retirees can share the burden through a reform that reduces the cost-of-living adjustment. Today’s workers can share the burden through an increase in the cap on income subjected to Social Security taxes so that 90% of total earnings are taxed. Continued gradual increases in the retirement age to keep pace with <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2022-07/57975-demographic-outlook.pdf">anticipated longevity gains</a> would also be borne by current workers. </p></li>
<li><p>The government should make sure that Social Security benefits will be adequate for lower-income retirees for years to come. That means reforms that slow the benefit growth of future retirees would be designed to affect only higher-income retirees. </p></li>
<li><p>Any changes to Social Security should help constrain the future growth of federal spending, given the <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58946#_idTextAnchor004">current and projected growth in the budget deficit</a>.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Advantages of ending the delay</h2>
<p>It appears that the U.S. – citizens and elected officials included – are deferring serious debate on this urgent matter until the trust fund’s depletion is imminent. That’s unwise. Acting sooner rather than later would leave more options available to gradually resolve the program’s financial shortfalls. </p>
<p>Ending this procrastination would also give the millions of people who rely on Social Security benefits, taxpayers and businesses more time to prepare for any changes required by overdue reforms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206462/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Rettenmaier does not work for, consult, or own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article. He has received funding from the American Enterprise Institute, the Bradley Foundation, the Charles Koch Foundation, and the National Center for Policy Analysis. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis W. Jansen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Congress and the White House fail to take action, Social Security beneficiaries would see a sudden 23% cut in their monthly checks in 2034.Andrew Rettenmaier, Executive Associate Director of the Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M UniversityDennis W. Jansen, Professor of Economics and Director of the Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2013602023-03-16T12:37:05Z2023-03-16T12:37:05ZWhy it’s hard for the US to cut or even control Medicare spending<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515188/original/file-20230314-3582-48y9sf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=77%2C94%2C5673%2C2862&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The number of Americans covered by Medicare is growing.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/female-friends-walking-with-nordic-walking-poles-in-royalty-free-image/1339068107">OR Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden’s 2024 proposed budget includes plans to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/07/fact-sheet-the-presidents-budget-extending-medicare-solvency-by-25-years-or-more-strengthening-medicare-and-lowering-health-care-costs/">shore up the finances of Medicare</a>, the <a href="https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Medicare-General-Information/MedicareGenInfo">federal health insurance program</a> that covers Americans who are 65 and up and some younger people with disabilities.</p>
<p>His administration aims to increase <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11820">from 3.8% to 5%</a> an existing Medicare tax that’s collected on the labor and investment earnings of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/what-to-know-about-proposed-biden-tax-on-the-wealthy-to-fund-medicare.html">Americans who make more than US$400,000 annually</a>. It also aims to reap some savings from having the government <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-pulse/2023/03/10/the-white-houses-health-care-wish-list-00086344">negotiate prices on more prescription drugs</a>.</p>
<p>The White House projects that these changes would generate an additional <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/budget_fy2024.pdf">$650 billion</a> in revenue over a decade. <a href="https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2023/3/10/president-bidens-proposal-to-extend-medicare-trust-fund">Some independent experts</a> concur.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=CwMgD5QAAAAJ">As economists</a> who have long <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=y0lrTOoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">researched</a> the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=y0lrTOoAAAAJ&hl=en">Medicare and Social Security programs</a>, we believe the president’s proposal is an important first step in opening the necessary debate on strengthening Medicare’s finances.</p>
<h2>Part A’s precarious funding</h2>
<p>Medicare consumes more than <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58848">15% of the federal budget</a>. The program cost $975 billion in 2022, out of the government’s <a href="https://usafacts.org/state-of-the-union/budget/">$6.5 trillion in total federal spending</a>.</p>
<p>As anyone who has enrolled in it can tell you, the program itself is rather complicated. It’s divided into three parts, known as A, B and D, each of which relies on revenue from a different mix of sources.</p>
<p>Medicare Part A covers care delivered at hospitals and nursing homes, as well as home health care. Part B pays for doctor’s visits and outpatient procedures, and Part D pays for prescription drugs. There’s also Part C, a private insurance option, known as Medicare Advantage. However, its costs are included in the accounting for Parts A and B. </p>
<p>Part A is primarily funded by a <a href="https://www.irs.gov/publications/p80">1.45% Medicare payroll tax</a> on both employees and employers. When that tax and the program’s other tax revenues don’t raise enough money to cover Part A’s costs, the program dips into the <a href="https://www.crfb.org/our-work/projects/medicare-hospital-insurance-trust-fund">Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund</a> to make up the difference. The trust fund, amassed from past surplus payroll taxes, currently stands at around <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TRSUM/tr22summary.pdf">$143 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Without spending cuts, funding increases or a combination of the two, the Medicare program’s trustees have predicted in their annual report that the <a href="https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2022-medicare-trustees-report.pdf">Medicare trust fund</a> will be exhausted by 2028. The <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/TR-2022-Fact-Sheet.pdf">trustees are the secretaries</a> of the Treasury, Labor and Health and Human Services departments, plus the Social Security commissioner. There can be up to two additional trustees, but those seats are vacant.</p>
<p>Medicare’s expenses are rising rapidly with the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/032216/are-we-baby-boomer-retirement-crisis.asp">retirement of baby boomers</a>, the large generation of Americans born between 1946 and 1964, and <a href="https://www.cms.gov/research-statistics-data-and-systems/statistics-trends-and-reports/nationalhealthexpenddata/nationalhealthaccountshistorical">rising health care costs</a>. </p>
<p>Should the trust fund be emptied out, the trustees predict that hospital benefits would have to be cut by 10%. But those cuts are widely considered to be politically unacceptable, as illustrated by <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/state-of-the-union-2023/">statements from Biden</a> and his predecessor, former President <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/read-the-full-text-of-trumps-2020-state-of-the-union">Donald Trump</a>.</p>
<p>In addition to proposing an increase in the tax levied on the <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/questions-and-answers-on-the-net-investment-income-tax">investment earnings of high-income Americans</a>, Biden also proposes that these revenues be fully dedicated to the trust fund. Currently the <a href="https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2022-medicare-trustees-report.pdf">government treats that money as general revenue</a> that can be used for <a href="https://www.thebalancemoney.com/net-investment-income-tax-3192936">any government program</a>.</p>
<h2>2 very different scenarios</h2>
<p>Unlike Medicare Part A, Parts B and D are funded largely by general federal revenue and by premiums paid by retirees.</p>
<p>Because the government is allowed to use general revenue to pay for them, the funding of Parts B and D isn’t jeopardized by the depletion of their trust fund – no matter how fast those costs rise.</p>
<p>Even without Biden’s proposed changes, official Medicare spending projections rise rapidly through the mid-2030s and then plateau as a percentage of gross domestic product.</p>
<p>However, those projections are based on a presumption that payments to <a href="https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2022-medicare-trustees-report.pdf">hospitals are constrained as specified in the Affordable Care Act</a> and that other spending constraints on <a href="https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Quality-Initiatives-Patient-Assessment-Instruments/Value-Based-Programs/MACRA-MIPS-and-APMs/MACRA-MIPS-and-APMs">physician payments</a> are realized.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/usc-brookings-schaeffer-on-health-policy/2015/02/02/a-primer-on-medicare-physician-payment-reform-and-the-sgr/">history provides little assurance</a> that lawmakers will maintain all of these requirements to restrain future payments to health care providers. </p>
<p>We say this because of what happened after 1997, when Congress approved the sustainable growth rate system, which was intended to limit the annual increase in cost per Medicare beneficiary to the rate of economic growth. Starting in 2002, Congress passed legislation year after year to override it – and only stopped doing that once it <a href="http://doi.org/10.1001/journalofethics.2015.17.11.pfor1-1511">did away with the system altogether in 2015</a>.</p>
<p>Reflecting this uncertainty, the annual <a href="https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2022-medicare-trustees-report.pdf">trustees report</a> features an alternative projection that is arguably more credible and more scary. It indicates that Medicare costs will grow much faster than the economy starting in 2036.</p>
<p><iframe id="OcsqK" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OcsqK/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Competing demands</h2>
<p>The Social Security program, a national pension program that primarily supports older Americans, faces similar funding shortfalls.</p>
<p>Its trustees anticipate that the <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/tr/2022/tr2022.pdf">Social Security trust fund will be depleted</a> by 2035 without changes in funding, promised benefits – or both. In that event, Social Security benefits <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/08/politics/social-security-benefit-cut/index.html">may have to fall by about 20%</a> from anticipated levels. </p>
<p>Medicare and Social Security are the nation’s largest <a href="https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/national-debt-guide/glossary/entitlements-definition.html">entitlement programs</a>. Almost all Americans, if they live long enough, will eventually be eligible to obtain these benefits – regardless of their income or wealth. </p>
<p>While Americans do not yet agree on how to put these programs on a steadier fiscal footing, the math is clear.</p>
<p>Our elected representatives cannot avoid making hard decisions that involve increasing taxes, reducing benefits or both.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis W. Jansen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Rettenmaier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond his academic appointment.</span></em></p>The program’s expenses are rising rapidly as baby boomers retire and health care costs grow.Dennis W. Jansen, Professor of Economics and Director of the Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M UniversityAndrew Rettenmaier, Executive Associate Director of the Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1733722021-12-16T13:29:15Z2021-12-16T13:29:15ZWhy spending $2 trillion on child care, health care and fighting climate change won’t make inflation any worse than it already is<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437849/original/file-20211215-15-16p8jap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C54%2C5137%2C3394&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">You get the metaphor. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/dripping-sap-royalty-free-image/496074811?adppopup=true">Edwin Remsberg/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/top-economists-see-biden-s-spending-plan-adding-to-inflation">One of the main concerns</a> raised by critics of President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better plan is that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/build-back-better-lift-inflation-higher-joe-manchin-price-growth-2021-12">it will drive up inflation</a>, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-inflation-so-high-is-it-bad-an-economist-answers-3-questions-about-soaring-consumer-prices-173572">is already running at the fastest pace in four decades</a>. </p>
<p>The Senate is currently considering a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/climate-immigration-joe-biden-health-lifestyle-bff841da156cb12cd47a564f9e0267eb">roughly US$2 trillion bill</a> <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376">passed by the House</a> that would spend money on health care, education, fighting climate change and much else over the next decade. But Republicans and a handful of Democrats like Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia argue the risk that <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/manchin-says-inflation-unknown-is-bigger-problem-than-the-need-for-bidens-build-back-better-plan-11638918421">more spending could push inflation even higher is too great</a>. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rlbLcnEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">an economist</a>, I believe these concerns are likely overblown. Here’s why. </p>
<h2>Putting $2 trillion in context</h2>
<p>High inflation <a href="https://econofact.org/rising-inflation">is clearly a problem at the moment</a> – as the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 15, 2021, <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20211215a.htm">decision to accelerate its withdrawal</a> of economic stimulus signals. </p>
<p>The most recent statistics show inflation, as measured by the annual increase in the Consumer Price Index, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">was 6.8% in November 2021</a>. This is the highest level since 1982 – yet still a long way from the double-digit inflation experienced back then. </p>
<p><iframe id="6wzps" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6wzps/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The question, then, is: Could an additional large spending increase cause inflation to accelerate further? </p>
<p>To answer this, it’s useful to put the numbers in some context. </p>
<p>The price tag of the Build Back Better plan passed by the House of Representatives <a href="https://apnews.com/article/climate-joe-biden-business-health-congress-44c43fab00aa95a268a2cba420713d22">is about $2 trillion</a>, to be spent over a 10-year period. If the spending is spread out evenly, that would amount to about $200 billion a year. That’s only about 3% of <a href="https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/spending/">how much the government planned to spend in 2021</a>. </p>
<p>Another comparison is to the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp">gross domestic product</a>, which is the value of all goods and services produced in a country. U.S. GDP is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-04/goldman-cuts-u-s-gdp-forecast-saying-omicron-is-drag-on-growth">projected to be</a> $22.3 trillion in 2022. This means that the first year of the bill’s spending would be about 0.8% of the GDP.</p>
<p>While that doesn’t sound like much either, it’s not insignificant. Goldman Sachs <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-04/goldman-cuts-u-s-gdp-forecast-saying-omicron-is-drag-on-growth">estimates U.S. economic growth at 3.8%</a> in 2022. If the increased spending translated into economic activity on a dollar-for-dollar basis, that could lift growth by over one-fifth.</p>
<p>[<em>More than 140,000 readers get one of The Conversation’s informative newsletters.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140K">Join the list today</a>.]</p>
<p>But what really matters here is how much the bill would spend in excess of any taxes raised to pay for the program. The <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/build-back-better-plan-reconciliation-bill-tax/">higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations that the House version of the bill calls</a> for would reduce economic activity – by taking money out of the economy – offsetting some of the impact of the spending that would stimulate it. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57619">Congressional Budget Office estimates</a> that the bill would increase the deficit by $150.7 billion over a decade, or about $15 billion a year. Again assuming this is spread evenly over the 10 years, it would amount to less than one-tenth of 1% of GDP. </p>
<p>In other words, even if the proposed spending has an <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/december/government-spending-stimulate-economy">unusually large impact on the economy</a>, it would still be barely noticeable on a macro level. </p>
<h2>But it won’t reduce inflation either</h2>
<p>Some proponents of the bill – <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/11/15/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-november-15-2021/">including the White House</a> and <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/56-economists-tout-benefits-bidens-build-back-better-act-despite-gop-inflation-concerns-1658224">some economists</a> – have gone further. They have argued that the proposed spending package would actually reduce inflation by increasing the productive capacity of the economy – or its maximum potential output.</p>
<p>This seems implausible to me, at least given the current level of inflation. Historical evidence shows <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/january-1998/a-brave-new-economic-world-the-productivity-puzzle#5##5">a more productive economy can grow more quickly</a> with relatively little upward pressure on prices. <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/1997/199710142.htm">That’s what happened in the U.S. in the 1990s</a>, when the economy grew strongly with little inflation. </p>
<p>In addition, it takes time for investments like those in the bill to translate into gains in productivity and economic growth – meaning many of these impacts will be slow to materialize. </p>
<p>Current inflation is likely an acute problem <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-prices-so-high-blame-the-supply-chain-and-thats-the-reason-inflation-is-here-to-stay-169441">reflecting supply chain disruptions</a> and pent-up demand, challenges that won’t be resolved by expanding the economy’s productive capacity five or more years down the road. But again, neither would inflation likely get any worse by spending $2 trillion to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/build-back-better-explained.html">improve access to</a> affordable child care, fight climate change and increase health care coverage. </p>
<p>Whatever the arguments for or against passage of the bill, I don’t believe its potential impact on inflation should be one of them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173372/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Klein receives funding from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation and the Calvin G. Kazanjian Foundation.</span></em></p>Republicans and a few Democrats say the Build Back Better plan would increase the already fast pace of inflation.Michael Klein, Professor of International Economic Affairs at The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1480772020-10-27T12:11:30Z2020-10-27T12:11:30ZSNAP benefits cost a total of $85.6B in the 2020 fiscal year amid heightened US poverty and unemployment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365551/original/file-20201026-23-qbftv2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=342%2C175%2C4963%2C3396&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some states make it possible to use SNAP benefits at farmers markets.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Food%20Stamps/ed0313b0c8e84f22a80bcbb9851f07df?Query=food%20AND%20stamps&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=706&currentItemNo=33">AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365563/original/file-20201026-17-bbi2y8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365563/original/file-20201026-17-bbi2y8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365563/original/file-20201026-17-bbi2y8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365563/original/file-20201026-17-bbi2y8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365563/original/file-20201026-17-bbi2y8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365563/original/file-20201026-17-bbi2y8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365563/original/file-20201026-17-bbi2y8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The government spent a record <a href="https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0920.pdf">US$85.6 billion</a> on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/scaling-back-snap-for-self-reliance-clashes-with-the-original-goals-of-food-stamps-128839">Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program</a> in the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/reference/glossary_term/fiscal_year.htm">fiscal year</a> ending in September. This sum, included in an October Treasury Department report, was about 35% higher than the $63.5 billion the federal government spent in 2019.</p>
<p>Spending on this state-administered program, which helps struggling families put food on the table, typically rises and falls in tandem with <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-snap-can-help-people-during-hard-economic-times-like-these-133664">unemployment and poverty</a>. Along with <a href="https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/unemployment-insurance">unemployment insurance</a>, SNAP is one of the most responsive programs in a recession. The most vulnerable families can get benefits within <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/recipient/eligibility">seven days</a> of applying. </p>
<p>Before the coronavirus pandemic, SNAP spending had been steadily declining since a 2013 peak of nearly <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap">$80 billion</a> following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-are-entering-a-recession-but-what-did-we-learn-from-the-last-one-131435">Great Recession</a>. But as the COVID-19-triggered economic crisis hit, monthly spending more than doubled, from $4.9 billion in February to $10.6 billion in June, according to <a href="https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/previous.html">Treasury Department data</a>.</p>
<p>The jump came from two factors. First, more people are getting benefits. Second, roughly 60% of the families who get them are eligible for more support than before.</p>
<p>Specifically, after the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/6201/text">Families First Coronavirus Response Act</a> relief package Congress passed in March 2020, the government <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/26/trump-blocks-pandemic-food-aid-432560">temporarily offered the maximum benefit</a>, typically given only to those with no income, to all families on SNAP. Following a <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/news-item/fns-001420">5.3% increase</a> announced Oct. 1 in response to rising food costs, that maximum level stands at $680 a month for a family of four.</p>
<p><iframe id="6mn1N" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6mn1N/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Despite this SNAP spending boost, <a href="https://www.kpax.com/news/coronavirus/as-another-wave-of-the-pandemic-approaches-the-nations-food-banks-are-being-hit-on-three-fronts">lines at food banks</a> have grown much longer during the pandemic.</p>
<p>To help both overwhelmed food banks and struggling farmers, the U.S. Department of Agriculture launched the <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/selling-food-to-usda/farmers-to-families-food-box">Farmers to Families Food Box</a> Program. The government had sent by mid-October 110 million boxes of fresh fruit, vegetables, dairy products and meat to food banks and other organizations assisting <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/27/912486921/food-insecurity-in-the-u-s-by-the-numbers">people facing economic hardship</a>.</p>
<p>The USDA is spending about <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/selling-food-to-usda/farmers-to-families-food-box">$4 billion</a> to purchase the food. But the program has been <a href="https://agriculture.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=1934">criticized</a> by <a href="https://aboutbgov.com/SMy">lawmakers</a> and anti-hunger groups as <a href="https://thecounter.org/usda-food-farmers-to-families-food-boxes-caribbean-produce-exchange/#:%7E:text=The%20concept%20is%20straightforward%3A%20USDA,thin%20air%20as%20they%20by%2D">inefficient and poorly managed</a>. Although food banks have appreciated the help, even <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2020/05/22/859853877/food-banks-get-the-love-but-snap-does-more-to-fight-hunger">people who run food banks</a> see SNAP as the best way to help the hungry.</p>
<p>In fact, in <a href="https://news.richmond.edu/releases/article/-/16856/ur-political-science-professor-awarded-funding-to-advance-book-project-on-history-of-americas-food-stamp-program.html">researching the history of SNAP</a> for an upcoming book, I found that the program long known as food stamps slowly replaced another program distributing surplus food to the needy in the 1960s. Government researchers found that giving families stamps to exchange for food in grocery stores was more efficient and effective. </p>
<p>In 2019, <a href="https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/resource-files/SNAPsummary-7.pdf">92% of SNAP</a> spending went directly to benefits. The program boosts the economy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-snap-can-help-people-during-hard-economic-times-like-these-133664">leading to more consumer spending and jobs</a>. SNAP also provides <a href="https://www.feedingamerica.org/about-us/press-room/feeding-america-opposes-latest-usda-proposed-snap-rule-harms-hungry-americans">nine meals</a> for every one meal supplied by Feeding America, the largest network of food banks.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Almost <a href="https://frac.org/news/2500-organizations-urge-senate-to-invest-in-critical-federal-nutrition-programs">2,500 organizations</a> serving the poor are calling for increasing maximum SNAP benefits by 15%. This would help all families on SNAP – including the 40% with the lowest incomes who have not gotten additional help so far during the pandemic. The <a href="https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/house-passes-updated-heroes-act">House passed relief legislation in May and October</a> that called for this 15% increase. As of late October, the Senate had not taken this step even though <a href="https://www.wbap.com/2020/10/23/new-study-reveals-coronavirus-pandemic-erased-20-years-of-food-security-gains-in-texas-united-states/">food insecurity has grown</a> substantially.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148077/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tracy Roof does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More Americans are getting benefits, and more of the people getting benefits are eligible for higher levels of support.Tracy Roof, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1455242020-09-29T12:34:10Z2020-09-29T12:34:10ZFailure to shore up state budgets may hit women’s wallets especially hard<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359701/original/file-20200924-20-ouvmk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=247%2C209%2C4625%2C2080&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Teachers organize their socially distanced students at Weaver Elementary School in Rossmoor, California.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kindergarten-and-tk-teachers-organize-their-students-on-the-news-photo/1271437757">Jeff Gritchen/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>States are seeing enormous <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/states-grappling-with-hit-to-tax-collections">budget shortfalls because of the coronavirus pandemic</a>, and the consequences for teachers and other public school employees could be dire. At least <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/stalled-coronavirus-aid-talks-test-schools-11598531735?mod=djem10point">640,000 education jobs in state and local government</a> vanished between February and August 2020.</p>
<p>The states, which provide an average of about <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-spending-covers-only-8-of-public-school-budgets-142348">47% of U.S. public school funding</a>, are cutting school spending because their <a href="https://fortune.com/2020/08/31/us-tax-base-coronavirus-covid-19-state-local-taxes/">tax revenue is declining</a> and they have no easy recourse to balance their budgets; unlike the federal government, <a href="https://www.urban.org/research/publication/balanced-budget-requirements">states can’t just print money</a>.</p>
<p>Negotiations continue around another pandemic relief bill, which would include money for states to spend on public education. But <a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-6878194947f8e4b5791d5454f2f0fd9b">lawmakers have passed</a> <a href="https://apnews.com/3588901312dec9607b6cd22bc83029c2">no measures</a> since May, when the House of Representatives passed a <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/5/15/21258854/house-three-trillion-stimulus-bill">US$3 trillion coronavirus relief bill</a> that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/23/politics/stimulus-negotiations-latest-congress-leaving-town/index.html">stalled in the Senate</a>.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://www.law.virginia.edu/faculty/profile/nrc8g/2915359">study families</a>, <a href="https://law.umkc.edu/profiles/faculty-directory/nancy-levit.html">employment</a>, <a href="https://www.law.umn.edu/profiles/june-carbone">corporations</a> – and gender. We are tracking how the coronavirus pandemic is underscoring the disproportionate financial burden women bear when states slash their budgets in times of recession.</p>
<p>Without sufficient federal aid, recessions have historically prompted job losses, pay cuts and high turnover that burden school <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/2020/4/22/21230992/great-recession-schools-research-lessons-coronavirus">districts for years</a>. Because <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_clr.asp">most public school teachers are women</a>, they are affected more. </p>
<p>We are examining this issue and others more deeply in a book we are writing called “Shafted: The Fate of Women in a Winner-Take-All World.” It explores the jobs women do from public schools to Walmart or hedge funds and demonstrates that the forces that have produced a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2928352">highly unequal economy</a> have <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3605503">undermined women’s well-being</a>.</p>
<p>What we’ve found so far is that women in almost every field have lagged behind men in pay, promotions and leadership opportunities. And in K-12 schools, this issue can appear starkly.</p>
<p><iframe id="GhTDi" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GhTDi/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The government’s role</h2>
<p>Historically, the federal government has implemented policies aimed at keeping the economy afloat during recessions.</p>
<p>During the Great Recession, for example, the 2009 stimulus package included money that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/lizfarmer/2020/07/30/bailout-stimulus-federal-relief-recovery/#784914bd5678">cushioned the impact of the recession on the states</a>. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/30/upshot/what-debate-economists-agree-the-stimulus-lifted-the-economy.html">Economists largely agree</a> that the policy worked. The spending bolstered state budgets, helping to prevent massive layoffs and <a href="https://www.edutopia.org/economic-stimulus-education-school-budget">prompt the start of a recovery</a>.</p>
<p>Nationwide, education spending averages about 30% of state budgets, with two-thirds of the funds <a href="https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/cross-center-initiatives/state-and-local-finance-initiative/state-and-local-backgrounders/elementary-and-secondary-education-expenditures">supporting K-12 education</a>. More specifically, the average state expenditures are 21% on elementary and secondary education and 10% on higher education.</p>
<p>After Republicans swept Congress in 2010, however, the flow of federal aid related to the recovery <a href="https://www.epi.org/blog/congressional-republicans-smothered-rapid-economic-recovery/">was dramatically reduced</a>. There was an immediate impact on the nation’s schools. Collectively, the states spent <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/a-punishing-decade-for-school-funding">billions less in K-12 education in 2012 than they had in 2011</a>.</p>
<p>As of the 2017-18 school year, 12 states were still <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/a-punishing-decade-for-school-funding">spending less on K-12 education than a decade earlier</a>. In their communities, fewer teachers were employed and schools were scrimping on school maintenance and supplies. Many public school teachers’ <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/101700/how_have_teacher_pensions_changed_since_the_great_recession_0.pdf">wages stagnated and their pension benefits were cut</a>. </p>
<p>In these conditions, the most experienced – and expensive – <a href="https://hechingerreport.org/teachers-could-retire-in-droves-by-the-time-schools-reopen/">teachers can be forced out</a>. These are often women. </p>
<h2>A ‘teaching penalty’</h2>
<p>During recent decades of squeezed state budgets, the percentage of K-12 teachers who are women has grown, <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_clr.asp">rising to 76% in 2018</a> from <a href="https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1109&context=cpre_researchreports">67% in 1981</a>. Therefore, the refusal to fund state budgets has fallen disproportionately hard on women.</p>
<p>Today, teachers earn about <a href="https://www.epi.org/files/pdf/153196.pdf">21.4% less than people with the same level of education</a> do in other fields, the highest teaching wage penalty economists have recorded in U.S. history. Female teachers also <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_clr.asp">earn lower salaries than male teachers</a>.</p>
<p>We believe the low pay and relatively low status of teaching help explain the increasingly high percentage of women in teaching and the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2019/02/the-explosion-of-women-teachers/582622/">declining percentage of men</a> who join their ranks. </p>
<p>We see a solution. It is for <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/5/4/21243725/coronavirus-unemployment-cares-act-federal-job-guarantee-green-new-deal-pavlina-tcherneva">countercyclical assistance</a> – giving more government assistance when times are tough – to the states, and making this support automatic. Other financial stabilizers, such as unemployment insurance and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-snap-can-help-people-during-hard-economic-times-like-these-133664">SNAP nutritional support program</a>, already do this by rising during downturns, which also has the effect of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/07/02/what-are-automatic-stabilizers/">bolstering the national economy</a>.</p>
<p>That won’t happen, however, without greater political recognition that the federal role in state budgets is essential to the health of public schools – and the national economy. </p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Schoolteachers have begun to fight back, engaging in strikes over the past few years for better pay, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/23/politics/teacher-strikes-politics/index.html">better working conditions</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-of-a-difference-does-the-number-of-kids-in-a-classroom-make-125703">smaller class sizes</a> and more services – such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/24/us/chicago-strike-support-staff.html">guidance counselors and nurses</a> – for students. </p>
<p>The strikes, however, address pressing local issues, not the broader – and, we argue, more critical – role the federal government plays during downturns in school budgets. That requires making the connection among congressional action, the nation’s economic well-being and the health of its educational system much more visible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When the federal government doesn’t intervene during downturns, the states often cut school spending. In turn, teachers may earn less or lose their jobs. And three in four teachers are female.June Carbone, Professor of Law, University of MinnesotaNancy Levit, Associate Dean and Professor of Law, University of Missouri-Kansas CityNaomi Cahn, Professor of Law, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1423482020-07-14T12:40:15Z2020-07-14T12:40:15ZFederal spending covers only 8% of public school budgets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346723/original/file-20200709-58-1fr8t19.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C50%2C5637%2C2430&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The White House is threatening to cut funds to school districts that don't resume daily in-person instruction.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-speaks-as-vice-president-secretary-news-photo/1215228995">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346716/original/file-20200709-38-eg4php.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346716/original/file-20200709-38-eg4php.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346716/original/file-20200709-38-eg4php.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346716/original/file-20200709-38-eg4php.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346716/original/file-20200709-38-eg4php.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346716/original/file-20200709-38-eg4php.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346716/original/file-20200709-38-eg4php.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346716/original/file-20200709-38-eg4php.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>State and local tax dollars cover the bulk of U.S. public school funding.</p>
<p>The federal government spends just under <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/school-finances/data/tables.html">US$55 billion per year on K-12</a> education, in addition to outlays for <a href="http://nieer.org/state-preschool-yearbooks">early childhood education</a> and post-secondary programs like loans and grants for <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2019/10/two-decades-of-change-in-federal-and-state-higher-education-funding">college tuition</a>.</p>
<p>That’s <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/school-finances/data/tables.html">just 8%</a> of the total $720 billion it costs to run the nation’s public schools during the 2017-18 school year, the most recent national data available.</p>
<p>This amounts to around $1,100 per K-12 student.</p>
<p>Federal funding has <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d19/tables/dt19_235.10.asp">never surpassed 10%</a> of total public school funding, except from 2010 to 2012 when the federal government sought to reduce the <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/policy/gen/leg/recovery/implementation.html">school spending cuts</a> <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/688011/summary">local and state governments made during the Great Recession</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/edfp_a_00245">American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 sent</a> $54 billion – the equivalent of $56.5 billion, adjusted for inflation, in spending today – to schools. That infusion most likely <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED533671.pdf">saved thousands of education jobs</a> from budget-based layoffs. In contrast, recent federal aid provided so far, through the March 2020 CARES Act, amounts to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2020/05/07/supporting-students-and-promoting-economic-recovery-in-the-time-of-covid-19/">only about $13 billion</a> for school districts, with an extra $3 billion for governors to use for K-12 education at their discretion.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s science, health and technology editors pick their favorite stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-favorite">Weekly on Wednesdays</a>.]</p>
<p>These funds may be spread even thinner if districts must <a href="https://theconversation.com/giving-private-schools-federal-emergency-funds-slated-for-low-income-students-will-shortchange-at-risk-kids-138503">allocate funds to neighboring private schools</a> based on enrollment levels. The Education Department, led by Betsy DeVos, issued guidance with this <a href="https://www.aasa.org/policy-blogs.aspx?id=44687">directive</a>, but several states including <a href="https://www.cde.ca.gov/fg/cr/esserfaqs.asp">California</a> and <a href="https://in.chalkbeat.org/2020/5/12/21256499/indiana-rejects-guidance-from-devos-to-reroute-more-coronavirus-relief-to-private-schools">Indiana</a> have pushed back, arguing that federal funds for private schools should be limited to aid targeting low-income students.</p>
<p><iframe id="GhTDi" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GhTDi/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Most K-12 federal funding supports the nation’s most vulnerable students through the <a href="https://theconversation.com/americas-poorest-children-wont-get-nutritious-meals-with-school-cafeterias-closed-due-to-the-coronavirus-133341">National School Lunch Program</a> and the <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=158">Title I program</a>, which targets funding to schools serving low-income students. Federal K-12 funding also supports <a href="https://theconversation.com/trusting-states-to-do-right-by-special-education-students-is-a-mistake-98820">special education</a> – providing services for students with special needs.</p>
<p>In short, federal funds make up a small proportion of total funding for U.S. K-12 education, but those funds largely serve children facing economic hardship or with learning differences.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/08/trump-schools-reopening-federal-funding-352311">White House now says it may cut spending</a> for school districts that don’t resume daily in-person instruction when the next school year gets underway, or perhaps make additional funding contingent on <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/politics/donald-trump-threat-to-cut-school-funding-fact-check/index.html">students being in classrooms five days a week</a>. As a scholar of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=F8pdFSgAAAAJ&hl=en">education finance</a>, I’m concerned that this approach would harm the most vulnerable students and families. At a time when schools really need federal leadership and financial support, the administration is threatening to withhold funding from the highest-need schools.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142348/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David S. Knight receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the W. T. Grant Foundation, the Spencer Foundation, and the American School Counselor Association.</span></em></p>US cities and states are responsible for the vast majority of K-12 funding.David S. Knight, Assistant Professor of Education Finance and Policy, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1385032020-05-16T13:17:38Z2020-05-16T13:17:38ZGiving private schools federal emergency funds slated for low-income students will shortchange at-risk kids<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335461/original/file-20200515-138634-17z514r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=372%2C139%2C4803%2C3236&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Low-income Seattle students began to pick up bagged lunches in March after their school closed.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cynthia-wright-asks-carlos-jimenez-if-he-would-like-some-news-photo/1207638078">Karen Ducey/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Public schools have faced three distinct challenges since the coronavirus pandemic began – scrambling to make sure that <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/4/17/21220016/school-lunch-coronavirus-meal-programs">low-income children don’t go hungry</a>, teaching students remotely who <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-all-kids-have-computers-and-theyre-being-left-behind-with-schools-closed-by-the-coronavirus-137359">lack internet access</a> and bracing for dramatically <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/coronavirus-covid-schools-budget-education-pennsylvania-philadelphia-20200512.html">smaller budgets</a>.</p>
<p>Congress tried to help in the US$2 trillion economic relief package known as the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/748/text">Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security</a>, or CARES Act, by designating <a href="https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/04/01/schools-get-135-billion-in-coronavirus-package.html">$13.5 billion</a> for public schools. The money was supposed to be distributed to school districts based on the number of low-income students they enroll. A <a href="https://oese.ed.gov/files/2020/04/FAQs-Equitable-Services.pdf">new directive</a> from the U.S. Department of Education, however, tells districts to share far more of the money than expected with <a href="https://www.educationnext.org/who-goes-private-school-long-term-enrollment-trends-family-income/">private and religious school students, even though fewer than 5%</a> of those children are poor.</p>
<p>I’m a scholar of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=eVP-tTgAAAAJ&hl=en">federal education policy and history</a> who has <a href="https://www.inspire2serve.gov/hearings/creating-expectation-service-hearing-civic-education-and-service-schools">testified before a congressional commission</a> and <a href="https://casetext.com/case/jindal-v-us-dept-of-educ-2">federal courts</a> in disputes over federal funds. In my view, this new policy runs counter to what Congress has tried to achieve in public education for the past 50 years and it directly contradicts the CARES Act.</p>
<h2>A new formula</h2>
<p>The funding is supposed to stabilize public school budgets as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2020/05/08/k-12-school-leaders-warn-disaster-huge-coronavirus-related-budget-cuts-layoffs-furloughs-begin/">local and state revenues</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/democratic-candidates-seek-a-big-and-unprecedented-k-12-funding-boost-131739">primary sources of U.S. public school funding</a>, decline and the <a href="https://districtadministration.com/cares-act-schools-cope-coronavirus-online-learning-covid-19-costs/">costs of responding</a> to the pandemic increase.</p>
<p>Schools from coast to coast are <a href="https://thelensnola.org/2020/04/06/school-district-laptops-hotspots-will-go-to-students-this-week/">buying computers</a> and scrambling to get low-income students the bandwidth they need for distance learning.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.future-ed.org/what-congressional-covid-funding-means-for-k-12-schools/">relief package specified</a> that the money would go to school districts based on the number of low-income students they serve. Those are children who are eligible for <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/child-nutrition-programs/national-school-lunch-program/">free and reduced-priced meals</a>. Students whose families are below 185% of the official poverty line – which as of 2020 stands at <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty-guidelines">$26,200 per year for a family of four</a> – fall into this category.</p>
<p>School districts are also to reserve a portion of those funds to ensure equitable services for any low-income students who may attend private schools. That’s in keeping with a practice in place since Congress passed the <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/non-public-education/files/equitable-services-guidance-100419.pdf">Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965</a>.</p>
<p>The department’s new guidance calls for a different method. Public school systems are being told to share these new federal funds based on the total number of students who attend private schools – rather than the much smaller number of low-income students in these schools. In other words, public school districts are being told to reserve funds for roughly <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=55">6 million</a> total private school students, of which only an estimated <a href="https://www.excelined.org/edfly-blog/private-schools-are-ready-to-serve-low-and-middle-incomes-students/">300,000</a> are low-income children. </p>
<p>By contrast, <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_204.10.asp?current=yes">52.3%</a> of the nation’s <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_cga.asp">50 million</a> public school students are low-income.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.southerneducation.org/publications/newmajorityupdate/">In Mississippi, for instance, 71%</a> of public school students are poor, and nationwide, on average, family <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED584733">incomes in private schools are as much
as 88% higher</a> than those in public schools.</p>
<p>Moreover, private schools, unlike public schools, are already eligible for <a href="https://www.federationforchildren.org/private-schools-are-eligible-for-federal-paycheck-protection-program-ppp-details/">federal payroll protection</a> funding under the CARES Act because they are considered small businesses.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335405/original/file-20200515-138634-re4vq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C287%2C4069%2C2135&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335405/original/file-20200515-138634-re4vq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C287%2C4069%2C2135&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335405/original/file-20200515-138634-re4vq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335405/original/file-20200515-138634-re4vq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335405/original/file-20200515-138634-re4vq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335405/original/file-20200515-138634-re4vq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335405/original/file-20200515-138634-re4vq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335405/original/file-20200515-138634-re4vq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Public schools were taking many precautions with meal distribution after a few weeks of widespread school closures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/red-cross-volunteers-and-lausd-employees-hand-out-meals-at-news-photo/1215249296">Sarah Reingewirtz/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shortchanging the poor</h2>
<p><a href="https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=55">Only about 10%</a> of the nation’s students attend private schools. This is something Education Secretary Betsy DeVos has long aimed to change. She has consistently supported policies that would <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/petergreene/2019/09/17/betsy-devos-polly-williams-vouchers-and-selective-facts/#540b9d4818ee">increase public funding for private school enrollment</a> in the form of vouchers and <a href="https://www.educationnext.org/can-529-savings-plans-be-used-k-12-private-school-tuition/">tax credits</a>. From this perspective, the current policy – while inconsistent with the law, equity and history – makes sense. But this time, DeVos’ private school policy would directly shortchange poor students.</p>
<p>The accounting method will require public schools – which are only receiving new federal money based on their poor students – to reserve multiple times more money for private schools than the CARES Act requires.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://edlawcenter.org/news/archives/school-funding/new-jersey-must-reject-education-secretary-devos%E2%80%99-advice-to-give-emergency-covid-19-funds-even-to-wealthy-private-schools.html">Passaic, New Jersey</a>, where the majority of public school students are poor, the district will need to reserve $1.4 million instead of $300,000 for private school students, according to an education advocacy group in that state. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/politics/betsy-devos-coronavirus-religious-schools.html">Montana estimates</a> it will need to reserve $1.5 million for private schools rather than $206,469 it believes the law requires, The New York Times reports.</p>
<p>This will only increase the challenges that the highest poverty schools face. Before the pandemic even hit, public schools serving the highest-poverty communities had <a href="https://edtrust.org/resource/funding-gaps-2018/">$1,000 less per student</a> than those educating affluent students. These shortfalls are likely to expand based on current economic conditions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.publicschoolsfirstnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/267960706-Is-School-Funding-Fair-4th-Edition.pdf">During the Great Recession</a>, states like North Carolina and Florida cut public school funding by 20% or more in three years. Poor communities there and elsewhere were the <a href="http://kasbresearch.blogspot.com/2017/01/is-school-funding-fair-national-report.html">hardest hit</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/law_lawreview/vol94/iss2/7/">practical effects</a> of these cuts were increased class sizes, unfilled teacher vacancies, higher percentages of uncertified teachers and schools where critical support staff like nurses and guidance counselors were too often missing. Some school districts were in <a href="https://scholarship.law.uc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1015&context=uclr">such dire straits that they teetered on bankruptcy</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/09/11/491831552/this-district-may-close-all-of-its-high-schools-but-its-about-much-more-than-mon">considered closing</a> some schools. </p>
<h2>Fixing the problem</h2>
<p>One solution to the current problem is for Congress to reiterate its original intent even more clearly. The <a href="https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20200511/BILLS-116hr6800ih.pdf">$3 trillion relief bill</a> passed by the House includes a provision that would do that.</p>
<p>The quicker option is for Congress to use its oversight powers to force the Education Department to concede that it made an error. That happened earlier this year when it reversed course on its plan to change the method for allocating funds to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/politics/education-department-federal-funding-for-rural-schools/index.html">rural schools</a>.</p>
<p>Those options, however, can be slow and uncertain. That’s one reason <a href="https://indianapublicradio.org/news/2020/05/indiana-education-department-dismisses-federal-cares-school-funding-guidance/">Indiana State Superintendent of Public Instruction</a> Jennifer McCormick went ahead and told her school districts to ignore the guidance this week.</p>
<p>The law is on McCormick’s side. Her action offered a clear path forward for state and local officials across the nation who don’t believe that waiting for the political process to correct itself is fair to the country’s children who need help now. </p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Derek W. Black does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Education Department is reinterpreting rules Congress wrote for how public school systems should share federal dollars with private schools.Derek W. Black, Professor of Law, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1288392020-02-27T14:03:01Z2020-02-27T14:03:01ZScaling back SNAP for self-reliance clashes with the original goals of food stamps<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315375/original/file-20200213-10980-od3d1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">SNAP can help low-income families eat a more balanced diet.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rebecka-ortiz-offers-a-sample-of-pasta-that-was-being-given-news-photo/454627849">Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Trump administration officials are trying to cut enrollment in the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-administration-proposal-could-cause-millions-lose-food-stamps-n1092866">Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program</a>, known as <a href="https://www.feedingamerica.org/take-action/advocate/federal-hunger-relief-programs/snap">SNAP</a> but still sometimes called “food stamps.” They say that too many people are getting this aid in a strong economy.</p>
<p>The program helped <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap">about 35 million</a> low-income people buy food in 2019. The average recipient gets <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/overview">US$128.60 a month</a>, about $1.40 per person per meal.</p>
<p>In December 2019, <a href="https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2019-12/perdue-lipps-snap-reform-audio-120419.mp3">Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue</a> announced changes that require more SNAP recipients to work or lose their benefits. While speaking with reporters, he alluded to what he called the “original intent of food stamps” – moving “more able-bodied recipients off of SNAP benefits toward self-sufficiency.” </p>
<p>The Trump administration is also seeking to take more executive actions that would cut back the eligibility of some elderly, disabled and working poor households. All told, these measures could affect <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/presidents-2021-budget-would-cut-food-assistance-for-millions-and-radically">up to 10 million people</a>. And the government is taking additional steps bound to <a href="https://apnews.com/e069e5a84057752a8535b1abe5d2ba6d">discourage legal immigrants from seeking SNAP and other food assistance</a>.</p>
<p>But while researching the <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1017/S1537592712002277">history of food stamps</a> and writing a <a href="https://news.richmond.edu/releases/article/-/16856/ur-political-science-professor-awarded-funding-to-advance-book-project-on-history-of-americas-food-stamp-program.html">book about the topic</a>, I have found the government didn’t create this program to push people into jobs, as Perdue suggests, but to help those in need get enough to eat.</p>
<p><iframe id="zgLjQ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zgLjQ/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Tracing SNAP’s origins</h2>
<p>In the 1950s, improved farming practices helped American farmers grow way more food than they could sell. To keep the price of commodities like wheat and corn from tanking, the government had to buy and hold the surpluses. At one point storage costs alone were over <a href="http://library.cqpress.com/cqresearcher/cqresrre1959030400">$1 billion a year</a>.</p>
<p>Yet, millions of Americans went hungry. Journalists found children within blocks of the Department of Agriculture <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/30016266?seq=1">rummaging through the garbage</a> for food. Many missed school for lack of energy.</p>
<p>Welfare benefits in many states were too small to allow families to buy enough food. In at least a dozen states, families that included an adult capable of work could not even get cash assistance. But there weren’t enough jobs to go around during recessions or in depressed areas. Coal country became a symbol of the problem. Shocks to the industry led to widespread and long-term joblessness. The workers ran out of unemployment benefits and their families <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/archives/other-resources/john-f-kennedy-speeches/clarksburg-wv-19600418">struggled to eat</a>.</p>
<p>Alarmed by the hunger he saw campaigning in <a href="http://www.wvculture.org/history/1960presidentialcampaign/jfklibrary/19600420mounthopesp.html">West Virginia</a>, President John F. Kennedy established a pilot food stamp program in a few depressed areas. The families who took part <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Food-Stamp-Program-Evaluation-Projects/dp/1391980166">bought more food and improved their diets</a>.</p>
<p>The government found that local stores also benefited from increased sales, and the effects boosted local economies. Supporters argued a national program would both improve social welfare and provide a new way to cushion the blow from economic downturns. Congress made the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3743805?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">program permanent in 1964</a>.</p>
<h2>Creating food stamps</h2>
<p>In the late 1960s, an <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/hunger-in-america-the-1968-cbs-documentary-that-shocked-america/">influential CBS documentary</a>, an <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED036566">investigative report from a panel of doctors</a> and congressional investigations shocked the public with heartbreaking images. These reports painted a stark picture of widespread hunger and ailments caused by poor diets in the richest country in the world.</p>
<p>Responding to pressure from the public, President <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/special-message-the-congress-recommending-program-end-hunger-america">Richard Nixon</a> pledged to end hunger in America, declaring “That hunger and malnutrition should persist in a land such as ours is embarrassing and intolerable.”</p>
<p>By 1974, poor people in every county in the nation could get food stamps – the only anti-poverty assistance with uniform national benefit and eligibility standards. Unlike most social programs targeting the elderly, disabled, children and parents, the government intentionally made food stamps available to almost all low-income people. By 1980, the U.S. had made big strides toward <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/hunger-in-america-the-federal-response/oclc/691132259">eliminating severe malnutrition and reducing hunger</a>.</p>
<p>But many poor people still didn’t get food stamps because recipients had to spend a share of their income to buy them. A <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/leghistory/food-stamp-act-1977">1977 law ended that requirement</a> and made it easier to enroll. These changes and a <a href="https://money.howstuffworks.com/stagflation1.htm">souring economy</a> sent the number of people on food stamps soaring to over <a href="https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/resource-files/SNAPsummary-2.pdf">22 million in 1981</a>, from 17.65 million in 1979.</p>
<h2>Deserving help</h2>
<p>As the number of people getting food stamps grew, so did suspicions that some who didn’t need or deserve the help were <a href="https://time.com/4711668/history-food-stamp-fraud/">abusing the program</a>. Critics then and now felt food stamps encouraged dependency and discouraged work.</p>
<p>Presidents <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1975/10/26/archives/president-wants-to-cancel-food-stamps-for-many-fords-tax-plan-has.html">Gerald Ford</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/04/04/us/food-stamps-program-it-grew-reagan-wants-cut-it-back-budget-targets.html?pagewanted=all">Ronald Reagan</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/03/17/us/debate-opens-on-cuts-in-food-stamps.html">conservatives in Congress</a> tried to reduce the number of Americans getting food stamps and crack down on fraud. But the program continued <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3330180">to grow amid a weak economy</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/archives/TIMELINE2.HTM">1996 welfare reform package</a> passed by a Republican-led Congress and <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/welfare-reform-snap-food-cuts/">reluctantly signed by President Bill Clinton</a> cut benefits, denied food stamps to most legal immigrants and limited adults who were able-bodied, childless and unemployed to three months of food stamps over three years. It also made it easier for states to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/food-stamps-and-welfare-reform/">deny food stamps to some people</a>.</p>
<p>To combat fraud, the law required states to replace paper stamps with electronic benefit cards by 2002. The share of food stamp benefits sold for cash or illegally exchanged at stores plummeted from 3.8 cents on the dollar in 1995 to <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-07-53-highlights.pdf">1 cent in 2005</a>.</p>
<p>From 1996 to 2000, the number of people on food stamps fell by over <a href="https://snapvisualizations.net/yearly-trends?field_year_number_value%5Bmin%5D=1985&field_year_number_value%5Bmax%5D=2018&order=title&sort=asc">8 million to 17 million</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="oN4RG" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oN4RG/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Growing again</h2>
<p>Part of the drop in use of food stamps was due to a <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=46896">booming economy</a>. But the share of those eligible for the program who actually got food stamps also fell steeply <a href="https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/resource-files/Trends2010-2017.pdf">from 75% in 1994 to 54% in 2001</a>. <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/589707">Lawmakers and other policymakers grew concerned</a> that families facing hunger were falling through the cracks.</p>
<p>Regulatory changes and a <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012/march/what-s-behind-the-rise-in-snap-participation/">2002 law</a> signed by President George W. Bush made signing up for food stamps and staying on the program easier. Benefits for most legal immigrants were restored. The law also gave the states more flexibility and incentives to enroll more people.</p>
<p>The 2008 farm bill made more people eligible for help and increased benefits. It also changed the name of the program to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/short-history-snap#1999">ease the stigma associated with it</a>.</p>
<p>The number of people getting these benefits increased in <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2012/jan/17/newt-gingrich/newt-gingrich-says-more-people-have-been-put-food-/">seven out of the eight years</a> of George W. Bush’s presidency, even in good economic times. The share of people eligible for the program who enrolled soared from <a href="https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/resource-files/Trends2010-2017.pdf">56.4% in 2003 to 70.6% in 2008</a> – and continued to rise to 83.8% in 2017.</p>
<p>After the Great Recession hit at the end of 2007, the number of people on food stamps grew steeply from 26.3 million to a peak of 47.6 million in 2013 – roughly <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/08/16/chart-of-the-week-food-stamp-enrollment-by-state-over-time/">15% of the population</a>. A <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=74689">2009 economic stimulus bill</a> signed by President Barack Obama temporarily increased benefits and suspended the three-month time limit for unemployed adults without children through 2013. Government economists determined that SNAP spending was more effective than any other federal program in <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/93169/err-263.pdf?v=1509.3">fighting the economic downturn</a>, increasing consumer spending and creating jobs.</p>
<p><iframe id="kddM9" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kddM9/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Lingering food insecurity</h2>
<p>Despite the improving economy and the expiration of stimulus provisions, almost 8 million <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/trends-supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-participation-rates-fiscal-year-2010">more people remained eligible in 2017 than before the economy hit the skids</a>: 45.2 million versus 37.2 million in 2007. This mostly happened because of <a href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/er/articles/2018/1q18edmiston-structural-cyclical-trends">changing demographics</a>, <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/snap-helps-millions-of-low-wage-workers">low wages</a> and other factors, rather than expanded eligibility.</p>
<p>The Trump adminstration’s proposed 2021 budget would <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/presidents-2021-budget-would-cut-food-assistance-for-millions-and-radically">cut SNAP spending</a> by nearly 30% over the next 10 years. However, it <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-foodstamps/nine-u-s-lawmakers-who-were-once-on-food-stamps-ask-trump-not-to-shrink-program-idUSKBN2071BM">seems unlikely that Congress</a> would approve that funding level.</p>
<p>I’m concerned that if the White House gets its way, either through the budget process or other means, it would increase food insecurity now and make the program <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/12/04/new-snap-rule-change-just-made-it-harder-to-combat-future-recessions/">less responsive to the next economic downturn</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128839/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tracy Roof has received a residential fellowship grant from Virginia Humanities to study the history of the food stamps program and several grants to visit archives for her research on this topic.</span></em></p>This pillar of the American safety net originated as a solution to the paradox of hunger in the midst of plenty.Tracy Roof, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1288372020-01-09T13:33:00Z2020-01-09T13:33:00ZSchool closures can hit rural communities hard<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308366/original/file-20200102-11951-1pmnwx0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An abandoned Arkansas high school</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mara Casey Tieken</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The school bus begins picking up children before 6 a.m. in Elaine, Arkansas, a small, mostly African American town on the Mississippi River floodplains about 120 miles east of Little Rock. It crawls past long stretches of oxbow lakes, acres of soybean and cotton fields, and two closed schools to arrive – nearly two hours later – in another <a href="https://www.publicschoolreview.com/marvell-primary-school-profile">small Arkansas town</a> called <a href="https://www.publicschoolreview.com/marvell-high-school-profile">Marvell</a>. At 3:30, the bus begins its winding return trip.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.bates.edu/faculty-expertise/profile/mara-c-tieken">researching rural education</a>, I have seen how these kinds of school closures are causing as much, if not more, <a href="https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2019/01/08/oakland-unified-scrambles-to-identify-as-many-as-24-schools-that-could-be-closed-in-next-5-years/">upheaval</a> as what’s going on when <a href="https://www.urban.org/features/subtracting-schools-communities">public schools</a> in <a href="https://interactive.wbez.org/generation-school-%20closings/">Chicago and other cities</a> close.</p>
<p>And more of this disruption might be imminent: Measures are being debated or implemented in several states, including <a href="https://nj.gov/dca/news/news/2019/approved/20190925.html">New Jersey</a> and <a href="https://www.benningtonbanner.com/stories/state-mandated-school-mergers-and-consolidation-talks-stir-interest-controversy-in-the-region,566209">Vermont</a>, that I believe would lead more rural schools to close.</p>
<p><iframe id="zSyr5" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zSyr5/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Rationales and policies</h2>
<p>Proponents of closing schools often claim that the step will <a href="https://www.kqed.org/news/11769908/second-phase-of-ousd-school-closure-plans-will-affect-1324-students">save tax dollars</a>, <a href="https://www.cleveland.com/metro/2010/01/transformation_plan_boxes_pict.html">boost academic performance</a> and <a href="https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/wv-boe-votes-and-approves-school-closure-consolidations-of-wilsonburg/article_f4c03fe3-6ebd-55a0-958c-023e4c84630b.html">give disadvantaged students</a> more opportunities. These rationales have inspired many national, state and local policies that have led to closure. </p>
<p>Some policies, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10824669.2012.636696">federal accountability regulations</a> permit or mandate closure directly. These policies cause officials to close schools with low standardized test scores, as happened with <a href="https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/when-schools-close-effects-displaced-students-chicago-public-schools">mass closures in Chicago</a> or, more quietly, in efforts in <a href="https://www.edweek.org/ew/collections/turnaround-schools/index.html">Washington, Virginia</a> and <a href="https://credo.stanford.edu/publications/school-closure-study-2017">other states</a> to swiftly “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10824669.2012.636696">turn around</a>” low-performing schools.</p>
<p>These policies rest on two, usually unstated, assumptions. First, the threat of closure will encourage better teaching. Second, if a school closes, its students will get a better education elsewhere.</p>
<p>Other policies are more indirect. For example, Arkansas’ <a href="https://encyclopediaofarkansas.net/entries/school-consolidation-5052/">Act 60</a>, a 2004 law, requires small districts to merge if enrollment falls under 350 students. It’s one of many <a href="https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/education/2016/09/14/two-small-alaska-schools-shut-their-doors/">similar measures</a> state lawmakers have passed, partly due to a belief that this will save money, that typically lead to closed schools.</p>
<p>Demands by states that local school systems offer new programs or greater staff compensation without providing the funding required, like those in <a href="https://www.nyscoss.org/img/uploads/file/2016-11-Something-has-to-Give-Finance-Survey-Report-FINAL.pdf">New York</a> and <a href="https://www.ktre.com/story/35604606/some-rural-est-texas-school-districts-bracing-for-huge-losses-in-funding/">Texas</a>, are another example. They can force officials to close schools in an effort to trim budgets. </p>
<p>Yet despite the prevalence of these policies, communities typically <a href="https://eveewing.com/ghosts-in-the-schoolyard">oppose closures</a>. To better understand this opposition and identify the actual impacts of closure, graduate student <a href="http://www.gradpost.ucsb.edu/top-stories/top-stories-article/2018/09/21/2018-incoming-grad-series-trevor-auldridge">Trevor Auldridge-Reveles</a> and I <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102%2F0034654319877151">reviewed studies on school closure</a> – both rural and urban. This research, while limited, suggests that the effects can be devastating. </p>
<p>While we find many of the problems with rural schools closing resemble those of urban districts, there are differences, such as the impacts on local communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308663/original/file-20200106-123381-81wvig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308663/original/file-20200106-123381-81wvig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308663/original/file-20200106-123381-81wvig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308663/original/file-20200106-123381-81wvig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308663/original/file-20200106-123381-81wvig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308663/original/file-20200106-123381-81wvig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308663/original/file-20200106-123381-81wvig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308663/original/file-20200106-123381-81wvig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When schools close, local jobs go away.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mara Casey Tieken</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Local repercussions</h2>
<p>The negative short-term impacts of closure on students’ academic performance are relatively well documented. Test scores and grade point averages in <a href="https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/school-closings-chicago-staff-and-student-experiences-and-academic-outcomes">Chicago</a>, <a href="http://www.tulane.edu/%7Emflarsen/uploads/2/2/5/4/22549316/mflarsen_schoolclosings.pdf">Milwaukee</a> and other places have fallen in the year before and immediately after schools close. </p>
<p>The long-term effects are more mixed. For example, a <a href="https://credo.stanford.edu/publications/school-closure-study-2017">national study</a> found that when students move to an academically stronger school, their test scores typically rise – a boost amounting to 11 extra days of learning in reading and about a month of learning in math. But if they move to a school that’s not academically stronger, their scores tend to decline – reflecting losses of more than a month in reading and a month and a half in math.</p>
<p>And, despite what decision-makers intend, most students do land in similarly performing or even weaker schools. </p>
<p>The research on graduation rates is inconclusive. </p>
<p>Some observe <a href="https://uei.uchicago.edu/news/article/trends-chicagos-schools-across-three-eras-reform-summary-report">improvements</a>. One study indicates that the share of students in Chicago who graduated from high school climbed from about half to two-thirds following mass closures. But others document <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102%2F0162373710376823">declines</a>, such as a nearly 25% drop in graduation rates in a study of a closed high school in a western urban district. </p>
<p>Closing a school can <a href="https://www.pdcnet.org/peacejustice/content/peacejustice_2014_0024_0002_0027_0049">disrupt students’ relationships</a> with peers and teachers and cause confusion and uncertainty. Some studies have shown an <a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeejuecon/v_3a71_3ay_3a2012_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a189-203.htm">increase in absenteeism</a>, though the effects may fade over time.</p>
<p>Students also may <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ911568">become less involved</a> in after-school clubs and sports, even if the number of extracurricular options expands. For those in sparsely populated rural places like Elaine, where the high school closed in 2006 and the elementary school closed in 2009, this is probably due to their long commute. <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED426839.pdf">Parents also appear to become less involved</a>, such as by volunteering in a classroom or getting to know their child’s teachers. </p>
<p>Although schools often are closed to save money, there are few studies on whether that happens. The little <a href="https://www.ruraledu.org/user_uploads/file/school_consolidation_and_transportation_policy.pdf">research conducted so far</a> suggests that savings are minimal at best.</p>
<p>In addition, local teachers, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102%2F0013189X18759542">often people of color</a> <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3127838">with ample experience</a>, can lose their jobs. </p>
<p>At a time when fewer than <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2016/cb16-210.html">1 in 5 Americans</a> live in rural areas, the demise of local schools can also lead to the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15700760590965578">closure of local businesses and expedite population losses</a>. </p>
<p>As I explained in my <a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9781469618487/why-rural-schools-matter/">book on rural schools</a>, in many rural communities, schools are the largest employer. They provide political power, and they tie people together. Once the schools are gone, the community loses all of these benefits: There are smaller crowds at the diner and fewer seats on the school board. Property values may also <a href="http://jrre.vmhost.psu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/17-3_1.pdf">decline</a>.</p>
<p>What’s more, some research shows that schools in poor communities and communities of color are disproportionately being closed. These studies, such as one conducted in <a href="https://www.ruraledu.org/user_uploads/file/docs/an_investigation_of_school.pdf">Arkansas</a>, suggest that the unseen costs of our many closure policies are unequal.</p>
<p>As one former Elaine resident recently told me, when the schools closed, it became a “ghost town.” </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128837/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mara Casey Tieken has received funding from the Spencer Foundation and the Ruth Landes Memorial Research Fund. She serves as a board member for the Edward W. Hazen Foundation and has volunteered for the Democratic Party. </span></em></p>Often schools close out of a belief that taking this step will save money and help students. Whether or not those benefits materialize, there are downsides for the locals.Mara Casey Tieken, Associate Professor of Education, Bates CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1257032019-10-31T12:53:40Z2019-10-31T12:53:40ZHow much of a difference does the number of kids in a classroom make?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299335/original/file-20191029-183116-1rop417.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chicago's teachers say they are seeking a better deal for their students too.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Chicago-Schools-Strike-City-Budget/d5439ebd493b43d29eee99a833636a3b/8/0">AP Photo/Teresa Crawford</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://apnews.com/702bf38168404d30a703eb357a8fb9de">Chicago’s teachers went on strike</a> in October, suspending instruction for the city’s public school students for <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/31/us/chicago-teacher-strike-thursday-makeup-days/index.html">11 days</a>.</p>
<p>Educators in the nation’s third-largest school district were seeking higher pay and improved benefits. But they also wanted to <a href="https://www.npr.org/local/309/2019/10/10/768891230/how-class-size-demands-could-trigger-a-chicago-teachers-strike">reduce the number of classrooms with large numbers of students</a>.</p>
<p>The deal the union representing Chicago’s teachers struck with the city calls for enforcing limits on class size that are in place but not always heeded. It also commits the authorities to spend <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/posts/chicago/2019/10/30/heres-the-full-tentative-agreement-that-chicagos-union-delegates-will-weigh-tonight/">US$35 million a year</a> to cover the cost of hiring more teacher’s aides to relieve teachers responsible for 32 or more kids in kindergarten through third grade.</p>
<p>Such a change would require more teachers. </p>
<p>Would it also make a difference for kids?</p>
<p>I’ve studied <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=XneK_7sAAAAJ">how schools can boost student achievement</a> for more than two decades and I’ve found that smaller classes are better for students. This is especially the case in the early grades and for students from low-income families. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, though, it is impossible to say <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/17/685116971/the-los-angeles-teacher-strikes-class-size-conundrum">what class size</a> between 15 and 40 is ideal. However, the evidence suggests that every decline in class size within this range leads to kids learning more.</p>
<h2>Reviewing the research</h2>
<p>Many factors influence educational outcomes. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20160567">Total spending</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399556052">class size</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjr041">teacher quality</a> are important. So is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13603120701576241">school’s culture</a>, including how school staff work together and learn from each other, and how they respond to student needs. The characteristics of a student’s classmates matter, as does the fit between the student and her teacher. </p>
<p>A randomized study conducted by researcher <a href="http://lilysblackboard.org/2015/12/former-nea-preain-dies-at-91/">Helen Pate Bain</a> and her colleagues in Tennessee in the mid-1980s, called <a href="https://www.classsizematters.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/STAR-Technical-Report-Part-I.pdf">Project STAR</a>, provided the strongest evidence to date that children learn more when they are in smaller classes.</p>
<p>The researchers randomly assigned nearly 12,000 students and their teachers in kindergarten through third grade in 79 schools to classes with 13-17 students or 22-25 students.</p>
<p>The results were clear: students in the smaller classes performed significantly better on <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102%2F01623737021002097">math and reading tests</a>, with a gain of 4 percentile points or more. The benefits of smaller classes were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399556052">even larger in schools with low-income students</a>.</p>
<p>More recent research indicates that the benefits of being taught in smaller classes persist long after students have moved on to the next grade. They become more likely to complete <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-0663.97.2.214">high school</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21715">go to college</a> and less likely to end up <a href="https://dataspace.princeton.edu/jspui/handle/88435/dsp01w66343627">becoming parents in their teens</a>, to name some of the most compelling examples.</p>
<p>Many other researchers who have studied the impact of smaller classes in <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102%2F01623737021002165">Wisconsin</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjs048">Sweden</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399556061">Israel</a> have found similar connections.</p>
<p>But the evidence is not entirely clear cut. Although most research points to students faring better when they’re taught in small classes, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2012.01.004">some</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/003355300555060">studies</a> have not found any benefits.</p>
<p>And there’s a big gap in this research. Most studies have looked into how class size affects learning in elementary school, providing <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102%2F0162373710392370">little insight</a> when administrators and policymakers make decisions about class sizes for middle and high school students.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299336/original/file-20191029-183147-3z4dzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299336/original/file-20191029-183147-3z4dzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299336/original/file-20191029-183147-3z4dzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299336/original/file-20191029-183147-3z4dzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299336/original/file-20191029-183147-3z4dzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299336/original/file-20191029-183147-3z4dzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299336/original/file-20191029-183147-3z4dzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299336/original/file-20191029-183147-3z4dzf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With 30 students or more in a class, it’s hard for everyone to get their turn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/high-school-kids-raise-hands-teacher-735905167?src=5dKLbz3ym9XlbAmUUhrnRQ-1-8">Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Comparing ideals and reality</h2>
<p>In theory, <a href="https://b5.caspio.com/dp.asp?AppKey=b7f93000695b3d0d5abb4b68bd14&id=a0y70000000CbsLAAS">at least 19 state governments</a> have imposed class-size mandates based on classroom averages, and another 10 have binding ones that require schools or districts to maintain a set average.</p>
<p>In reality, these rules vary widely in terms of funding, enforcement and how the authorities measure class size.</p>
<p>For example, in theory, Texas has a maximum class size of 22 for kindergarten through fourth grade, but <a href="https://tea.texas.gov/Texas_Schools/Waivers/State_Waivers/Maximum_Class_Size_Exceptions">waivers that allow classes to have larger numbers of students</a> are easy to obtain. Delaware requires a ratio of 22 students per teacher, <a href="http://www.nea.org/home/achievement_Delaware.html">but it counts classroom instructional aides as half a teacher</a>.</p>
<p>Reducing the number of students in each classroom requires employing more teachers, which in turn, means spending more money on salaries and benefits. In some cases, the additional teachers hired may not be as effective as those already in the building. Strictly limiting class size can also drive up school construction costs when there aren’t enough classrooms to accommodate students being split into more groups.</p>
<p>It’s also impossible to maintain consistent sizes in classes, especially in the early grades, since elementary schools tend to be relatively smaller.</p>
<p>Say a school had 71 first-graders, with a class size cap of 24. They could group them into two classrooms of 24 students and another with 23. But if the next year a family with twins moves into a nearby neighborhood, raising the number of second-graders to 73 students, the school would wind up with three second-grade classrooms with 18 students and another with 19.</p>
<p>Taking that step instead of splitting them into two classrooms of 24 students and another with 25 could require hiring a new teacher. School administrators might argue in this situation – correctly – that one additional student would not make much of a difference in terms of what those second-graders would be learning that year. At the same time, those students could wind up benefiting from having fewer classmates. </p>
<p>My example assumes that an additional classroom is available, and an additional qualified teacher can be hired. That’s not always the case.</p>
<h2>Heeding the California precedent</h2>
<p><a href="https://edsource.org/2018/in-push-to-expand-universal-preschool-lessons-to-be-learned-from-californias-class-size-reduction-program/605911">California</a> enacted a voluntary class-size reduction program in 1996 that dramatically reduced class sizes in kindergarten through third grade statewide. To adhere to the new rules capping those classes at 20 students, schools had to <a href="https://www.cta.org/oralhistory">hire 30,000 new teachers</a>.</p>
<p>Many of those new hires lacked experience and standard teaching credentials. Kids, at least initially, didn’t gain as much as expected from being in smaller classes because some of new <a href="https://www.ppic.org/publication/class-size-reduction-teacher-quality-and-academic-achievement-in-california-public-elementary-schools/">teachers weren’t as good</a> as the ones hired before the rules changed.</p>
<p>And because there weren’t enough classrooms to accommodate them, many schools made do with the portable structures sometimes called “<a href="https://www.kpbs.org/news/2016/apr/20/portable-classrooms-not-always-right-answer-school/">relocatables</a>” or <a href="https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/back-to-school-back-to-trailers/article_5eda0b7a-c437-11e9-a1bb-4f9a532904ee.html">trailers</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://edsource.org/2012/class-size-reduction-program-continues-to-unravel/8730">California rolled back this requirement</a> during the Great Recession. By 2012, many schools had <a href="https://www.cde.ca.gov/fg/aa/pa/cefcsp.asp">30 or more children</a> in a classroom. <a href="https://edu.wyoming.gov/data/161-waiver/">Wyoming</a>, likewise, has pared back its ambitious goal of having no more than <a href="https://www.wyomingnews.com/news/local_news/wyoming-school-facilities-commission-returns-to-smaller-class-sizes/article_bab7ee92-be31-11e8-9348-433fe5c30702.html">16 children</a> in its kindergarten through third-grade classrooms to <a href="https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/post/who-decides-when-classroom-holds-too-many-students#stream/0">save money</a>.</p>
<p>Without question, class size matters. But when faced with constraints such as building sizes and tight budgets, the choice to reduce class size can be hard to sustain.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend.</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125703/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach has received grant funding from the Washington Center for Equitable Growth and the Spencer Foundation to study the impacts of school finance reforms. She is a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, serves on the Advisory Council of the Hamilton Project, and is a board member of Chicago HOPES for Kids and the Greater Chicago Food Depository.</span></em></p>Research suggests that kids benefit when there are fewer of them in a classroom. But quickly reducing class size can cause new problems as schools scramble to hire new teachers.Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, Professor of Education and Social Policy; Director of the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1134222019-06-03T12:41:27Z2019-06-03T12:41:27ZGetting poorer while working harder: The ‘cliff effect’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276117/original/file-20190523-187143-tkgp78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Average Walmart workers make twice the federal minimum wage but may still qualify for public benefits.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Walmart-Lab-Store/4f56edaf208e4f8abd078677c46b1aba/3/0">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Forty percent of all <a href="https://www.urban.org/research/publication/despite-labor-market-gains-2018-there-were-only-modest-improvements-families-ability-meet-basic-needs">working-age Americans sometimes struggle</a> to pay their monthly bills. </p>
<p>There is no place in the country where a family supported by one minimum-wage worker with a full-time job can live and <a href="https://reports.nlihc.org/sites/default/files/oor/OOR_2018.pdf">afford a 2-bedroom apartment</a> at the average fair-market rent. </p>
<p>Given the pressure to earn enough to make ends meet, you would think that low-paid workers would be clamoring for raises. But this is not always the case. </p>
<p>Because so many American jobs don’t earn enough to pay for food, housing and other basic needs, many low-wage <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/most-working-age-snap-participants-work-but-often-in-unstable-jobs">workers rely on public benefits</a> that are only <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-myths-about-the-poor-that-republicans-are-using-to-support-slashing-us-safety-net-89048">available to people in need</a>, such as housing vouchers and Medicaid, to pay their bills.</p>
<p>Earning a little more money may not automatically increase their standard of living if it boosts their income to the point where they lose access to some or all of those benefits. That’s because the value of those lost benefits may outweigh their income gains.</p>
<p>I have researched this dynamic, which experts often call the “<a href="https://www.umb.edu/csp/research">cliff effect</a>,” for years to learn <a href="https://www.umb.edu/csp/about/team/bios/susan_r_crandall">why workers weren’t succeeding</a> at retaining their jobs following job training programs. Chief among the one step forward, two steps back problems the cliff effect causes: Low-paid workers can become reluctant to earn more money due to a fear that they will get worse off instead of better.</p>
<p><iframe id="jqu2f" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jqu2f/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Trapped</h2>
<p>“My supervisor wants to promote me,” a woman who gets housing assistance through the federal <a href="https://affordablehousingonline.com/section-8-housing">Section 8 housing voucher program</a>, who I’ll call Josie, told me. “If my pay goes up, my rent will go up too. I don’t know if I’ll be able to afford my apartment,” Josie, a secretary at a Boston hospital, said. </p>
<p>These vouchers are available to Americans facing economic hardship, <a href="https://www.thebalancesmb.com/section-8-housing-eligibility-requirements-2125017">based on multiple criteria</a>, including their income. Josie was worried that the bump up in pay that she’d get from the promotion would not make up for the loss of help she gets to pay her rent.</p>
<p>Given the possibility of a downside, many Americans in this situation decide it’s better to decline what on the surface looks like a good opportunity to escape poverty.</p>
<p>This uncertainty leads workers like Josie to forgo raises rather than take the risk of getting poorer while working harder. Having to stress out about potentially losing benefits that keep a roof over their heads and food on their table prolongs their own financial instability.</p>
<p>The pain isn’t just personal. Josie’s whole family misses out if she passes on an opportunity to earn more. The government loses a chance to stop using taxpayer dollars to cover benefits to someone who might not otherwise need them. The hospital can’t take full advantage of Josie’s proven talents.</p>
<h2>Not always</h2>
<p>Some low-paid <a href="https://www.circlesusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/WF_PULSE_REPORT_Outling_the_Disincentives_infographic_8_2016.pdf">workers do get farther behind</a> when they should be getting ahead following a raise. But getting higher pay doesn’t always <a href="https://www.umb.edu/csp/research">make anyone worse off</a>. Whether it does or not depends on a lot of intersecting factors, like the local cost of living, the size of the raise, the size of the family and the benefits the worker receives.</p>
<p>The cliff effect is something social workers see their clients encounter all the time. And it’s maddeningly impossible to figure out for the people experiencing it and researchers like me alike.</p>
<p>Some benefits, notably the <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-charts-that-show-who-loses-out-if-the-white-house-cuts-food-stamps-78648">Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program</a>, the nation’s largest program designed to alleviate hunger, do include some incentives for recipients to earn more. SNAP, as today’s version of food stamps is known, <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/the-supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-includes-earnings-incentives">tapers its phaseout for eligibility</a> as incomes grow, rather than rendering people ineligible as soon as their pay crosses a single threshold.</p>
<p>But low-wage workers, such as those in food service, hospitality and retail have no way of knowing what to expect if they get SNAP benefits in combination with other government programs, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/ben-carsons-effort-to-reform-housing-safety-net-would-deepen-poverty-by-hurting-poorest-americans-95745">housing vouchers</a> and Medicaid.</p>
<p>At the heart of this problem is that the help millions Americans derive from the nation’s safety net comes from a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2019-government-shutdown-is-just-the-latest-reason-why-poor-people-cant-bank-on-the-safety-net-109691">fragmented system</a>. Sorting out the repercussions of a higher income is nearly impossible because the safety net consists of a wide array of benefits programs administered by federal, state and local agencies. Each program and administrator has its own criteria, rules and restrictions.</p>
<p>Because that trepidation is sometimes unfounded, my colleagues at <a href="https://www.prohope.org/">Project Hope Boston</a>, a multi-service agency focused on moving the city’s families up and out of poverty, and I started to do something about it.</p>
<h2>Fixing it</h2>
<p>To help families assess risks tied to the cliff effect, we advised the <a href="https://www.cominghomedirectory.org/coming-home-post/massachusetts-department-transitional-assistance-dta/">Massachusetts Department of Transitional Assistance</a>, which oversees state-administered safety net programs, to create a <a href="https://www.umb.edu/editor_uploads/images/centers_institutes/center_social_policy/Cliff_Effects_slides.1.29.19_CC.SRC.pdf#page=23">digital tool</a>. Social workers are already using a preliminary version of it to show low-wage workers what they can probably expect to happen to their benefits if they earn more money.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275990/original/file-20190522-187182-1ibr30t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275990/original/file-20190522-187182-1ibr30t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275990/original/file-20190522-187182-1ibr30t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275990/original/file-20190522-187182-1ibr30t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275990/original/file-20190522-187182-1ibr30t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275990/original/file-20190522-187182-1ibr30t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275990/original/file-20190522-187182-1ibr30t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275990/original/file-20190522-187182-1ibr30t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You have to consider a lot of variables to see whether someone will experience the cliff effect.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.umb.edu/editor_uploads/images/centers_institutes/center_social_policy/Cliff_Effects_slides.1.29.19_CC.SRC.pdf">Massachusetts Department of Transitional Assistance</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Commonwealth of Massachusetts plans to put this tool online for all to use by Summer of 2019.</p>
<p>After plugging information about variables like how many members are in the household, what benefits everyone receives, the costs of their regular expenses like rent, child care and medical bills, they become better able to make informed choices about their career opportunity based on their family’s personal financial situation. </p>
<p>But workers need more than just a tool, they need help getting over the cliff. We also help workforce development programs implement the state’s new <a href="http://commcorp.org/programs/wctf-current-grants/">Learn to Earn initiative</a>, which gives low-income families the financial coaching they need to make educated decisions that could affect their bottom line.</p>
<p>This problem is becoming increasingly urgent because <a href="https://www.nelp.org/publication/raises-coast-coast-2019/">dozens of states, cities and counties</a> are enforcing <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/state-minimum-wage-chart.aspx">higher minimum wages</a>, and employers are voluntarily raising pay as well, including <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/04/04/target-raises-minimum-wage-to-13">Target</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/amazon-raises-minimum-wage-to-15-for-all-us-employees.html">Amazon</a>. Some places, <a href="https://www.mass.gov/info-details/massachusetts-law-about-minimum-wage">including Massachusetts</a> and the cities of <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/04/25/local-minimum-wage-hikes-emerge-as-capitol-sticking-points">Minneapolis and St. Paul</a> in Minnesota, are even phasing in $15-an-hour minimums. </p>
<p>But the reality is that even after some of the biggest minimum wage increases enacted at the state level lately, many families are not earning enough to pay for housing and other basic needs <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/100216/despite_labor_market_gains_in_2018_there_were_only_modest_improvements_in_families_ability_to_meet_basic_needs.pdf">without help</a> – for which they may no longer qualify. Several states, including <a href="https://ascend.aspeninstitute.org/reducing-the-cliff-effect-to-support-working-families/">Colorado and Florida</a>, are seeking solutions. </p>
<p>This complicated and frustrating challenge is just one symptom of an overarching problem. In addition to boosting wages, it will take major policy changes, like making <a href="https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/communities-and-banking/2017/winter/combining-earnings-with-public-supports-cliff-effects-in-massachusetts.aspx">child care more universally available</a> and affordable, to offset the skyrocketing costs of living for American workers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan R. Crandall directs the Center for Social Policy in the McCormack Graduate School at the University of Massachusetts Boston, which received funding from the Oak Foundation and The Boston Foundation to support its cliff effect research. The Center advised the Massachusetts state government on its cliff effects digital tool and Learn to Earn program.</span></em></p>Stressing out about potentially losing benefits can prolong financial instability. Solving this problem will help low-paid workers and everyone else.Susan R. Crandall, Director, Center for Social Policy, UMass BostonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1145012019-04-03T10:48:35Z2019-04-03T10:48:35ZThe Trump administration’s attempts to defund the Special Olympics, explained<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267198/original/file-20190402-177163-1f9kr3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Special Olympics basketball clinic in Charlotte, N.C. in January 2019</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Hornets-Special-Olympics-Basketball/6165f87233c3438995677b59fbd53705/3/0">AP Photo/Chuck Burton</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government has long <a href="http://annualreport.specialolympics.org/financials">covered about a tenth</a> of the Special Olympics’ budget. This nonprofit that gives athletes with intellectual disabilities a chance to train and compete in a wide variety of sports gets most of the rest of its funding from charitable donations from <a href="https://www.specialolympics.org/about/partners/">foundations</a>, <a href="https://resources.specialolympics.org/Topics/Research/Program_Research_Toolkit/Visibility___Corporate_Partnering.aspx">corporations</a> and <a href="https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Special-Olympics-Largest-Private-Donation-318639701.html">individuals</a>. It spent a total of roughly US$150 million in 2017, the most recent year for which information is available, with the federal government’s portion totaling $15.5 million.</p>
<p>President Donald Trump’s first three proposed budgets, for the 2018, 2019 and 2020 fiscal years, would have broken that formula. Instead of the usual arrangement, his first three draft spending plans called for <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/highschool/2019/03/26/betsy-devos-funding-cuts-special-olympics-warranted/39260497/">giving nothing at all</a> to the Special Olympics. </p>
<p>But for the upcoming fiscal year, the organization anticipates getting $17.6 million from Uncle Sam. That’s because Congress ignored the president’s proposed budgets and provided uninterrupted funding for the <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/news/congress/trump-administrations-special-olympics-cuts-never-chance">Special Olympics</a> during the administration’s first two years. Now, Trump has disavowed his own proposed cuts. </p>
<p>Over the past several years, I have gained an increasing understanding of and appreciation for the Special Olympics through collaboration between the organization and American University, where I am a professor and direct the <a href="http://www.idppglobal.org/">Institute on Disability and Public Policy</a>.</p>
<p>Based on my scholarship about <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YqJKLwYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">disability policies</a> around the world, I believe that stripping the program of federal funding would undercut the organization’s work: empowering <a href="https://www.specialolympics.org/about/our-mission">people with intellectual disabilities</a> by reducing the stigma and discrimination against them though their participation in sports.</p>
<h2>The Special Olympics</h2>
<p>This script changed abruptly when Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos told the <a href="https://appropriations.house.gov/legislation/hearings/department-of-education-budget-request-for-fy-2020">House Appropriations Committee</a> in late March about proposed <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/28/18285360/betsy-devos-special-olympics-shriver-pocan">educational cuts topping $7 billion</a>, including ending all U.S. funding for the Special Olympics in the 2020 fiscal year.</p>
<p>Amid the <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/436216-kennedy-on-cuts-to-special-olympics-this-will-never-happen">bipartisan uproar</a> over DeVos’ proposed cuts, Trump changed his mind. He declared he personally opposed this line item from his own budget proposal. There’s a good reason for the fuss this budget debate stirred up: No other organization does what the Special Olympics does.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.specialolympics.org/about/eunice-kennedy-shriver">Eunice Kennedy Shriver</a>, a fierce defender of the rights of people with intellectual disabilities, founded the Special Olympics more than 50 years ago. Unlike the Olympics, which primarily holds global sports events every other year, the Special Olympics holds at least one competition somewhere in the world almost every day. Its year-round training and sports competitions serve over 5.7 million athletes in 174 countries worldwide, from <a href="https://www.specialolympics.org/programs/latin-america/argentina">Argentina</a> to <a href="https://www.specialolympics.org/programs/africa/zambia">Zambia</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7reDes9mQRg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Education Secretary Betsy DeVos refused to give any details about federal funding for the Special Olympics when she responded to questions from Sen. Dick Durbin, an Illinois Democrat.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The role of philanthropy</h2>
<p>During her congressional testimony, DeVos did praise the Special Olympics. As she pointed out, she does support the organization with some of <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/14/devos-education-donation/110430930/">the salary</a> that she – a <a href="https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/money-and-power/a13086194/betsy-devos-net-worth/">billionaire</a> – has waived.</p>
<p>But she also said at first that the philanthropic support the organization gets renders federal funding for the Special Olympics unnecessary. “The Special Olympics is an awesome organization, one that is well supported by the philanthropic sector, as well,” she told <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/28/18285360/betsy-devos-special-olympics-shriver-pocan">Rep. Mark Pocan</a>, a Wisconsin Democrat.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.apnews.com/9e4bf2732b0744a98192c923ac19f38e">DeVos reversed course</a> in a subsequent statement. “I am pleased and grateful the President and I see eye-to-eye on this issue and that he has decided to fund our Special Olympics grant,” she said. “This is funding I have fought for behind the scenes over the last several years.”</p>
<p>Her staff now say they sought to restore the funds before the proposed cuts became contentious, and they blame efforts to get rid of the funds on the <a href="https://www.abc-7.com/story/40222169/wh-budget-office-not-devos-pushed-for-proposed-special-olympics-cuts-official-says">Office of Management and Budget</a>, a White House agency that administers federal spending.</p>
<p>DeVos was wrong when she initially said that the Special Olympics didn’t need federal funding because charity provides the money it needs. Federal funding covers a very specific Special Olympics initiative, its <a href="https://www.specialolympics.org/our-work/unified-champion-schools">Unified Champion Schools</a> program. The program uses sports as a foundation to build a climate of acceptance by having children with and without disabilities <a href="http://www.playunified.org">play sports together in schools</a>. This program promotes social inclusion for people with intellectual disabilities <a href="https://fusiontables.googleusercontent.com/embedviz?q=select+col6+from+1r7iMSTfn2-C_3__4eBDnyV6jyzh2dmXLjvvr22pt&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=45.940530610706396&lng=-59.62711314016417&t=1&z=3&l=col6&y=2&tmplt=3&hml=GEOCODABLE">across the country</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"831697083593785345"}"></div></p>
<p>While philanthropic support does contribute to the Champion Schools program, especially at the local level, federal funding allows the headquarters organization to administer and oversee the program. </p>
<p>What might have happened without the media attention brought about by DeVos’ confrontations with lawmakers? It looks likely that Congress would have ignored this proposed cut for a third time. </p>
<p><a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/436097-gop-senator-says-special-olympics-cuts-will-not-be-approved">Sen. Roy Blunt</a>, a Missouri Republican who chairs the Senate subcommittee that manages this segment of the budget, says he is a strong supporter of the Special Olympics. He has promised to protect its funding. </p>
<p>What’s more, this is hardly the only line item in Trump’s draft budgets <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/03/11/donald-trumps-budget-calls-billions-more-border-wall/3072621002/">Congress has been ignoring</a>. Nor is this the first time lawmakers have pushed back against many White House spending priorities.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1110970818455052288"}"></div></p>
<h2>Abdicating global leadership</h2>
<p>This proposed cut is only one of many the Trump administration has seemed to make <a href="http://time.com/5168472/disability-activism-trump/">people with disabilities</a> a low priority. But to be sure, <a href="https://specialedshortages.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Budget-Cuts-Survey-Press-Release.pdf">it’s not the first time</a> these concerns have arisen. In 2013, for example, a budgetary impasse forced an estimated $600 million <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/670/661444.pdf">reduction in special ed spending as part of the sequestration</a> process.</p>
<p>It’s also not the first time a White House has seemed insensitive about athletes with intellectual disabilities. President Barack Obama once <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=7129997&page=1">inappropriately joked about being bad at bowling</a> by comparing himself to Special Olympics contenders. The difference between what happened next is stark.</p>
<p>Obama immediately apologized personally to Special Olympics Chairman Tim Shriver.</p>
<p>In contrast, after the administration tried to cut the budget, Trump <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/28/politics/devos-special-olympics-durbin/index.html">blamed his underlings</a> and tried to <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trumps-special-olympics-falsehoods-get-little-worse">take credit</a> for rescuing the Special Olympics funding that his own team jeopardized.</p>
<p>Current U.S. policies appear to be at odds with the nation’s historic role as a <a href="http://usicd.org/index.cfm/rightsnow">global leader</a> on disability rights. The United States was among the first countries in the world to pass legislation to support the multifaceted rights of people with disabilities, the landmark <a href="https://www.ada.gov">Americans with Disabilities Act</a>, or ADA, in 1990.</p>
<p>And American disability policies laid the foundation for and inspired the creation of the United Nations <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/disabilities/convention-on-the-rights-of-persons-with-disabilities.html">Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities</a>, a global treaty that 172 countries have ratified so far. The Obama administration signed the treaty but the Senate has not ratified it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114501/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Derrick L. Cogburn has received funding from The Nippon Foundation of Japan to launch the Institute on Disability and Public Policy (IDPP) and create a masters program on comparative and international disability policy. American University has a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) with Special Olympics, and Dr. Cogburn coordinates that relationship.</span></em></p>The White House proposed these cuts for three years in a row. That clashes with longstanding bipartisan leadership regarding rights for all people with disabilities.Derrick L. Cogburn, Professor of International Service and Professor of Information Technology & Analytics at the Kogod School of Business, American University Kogod School of BusinessLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/967782018-05-18T10:41:23Z2018-05-18T10:41:23ZThe GOP’s poor arguments for doubling down on SNAP’s work requirements<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219501/original/file-20180517-26290-15xxk5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">More than 40 million Americans rely on SNAP for groceries.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Faster-Food-Stamps/cb234d5d00184abf93214b3e6e7a76a2/1/0">AP Photo/Seth Wenig</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Republicans aim to tighten the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program’s work requirements as part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-2018-farm-bill-means-for-urban-suburban-and-rural-america-89605">farm bill</a> Congress is debating.</p>
<p>These changes would cut spending on this nutritional benefit for the poor – commonly called SNAP or food stamps – by more than <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/blog/6-takeaways-from-cbo-estimate-of-house-agriculture-committee-snap-proposals">US$17 billion over the next decade</a> and reduce the number of Americans getting these benefits by about 1.2 million.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://umdearborn.edu/users/pksmith">economist who studies nutrition policy</a>, I’m discouraged by continuing pushes to <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/presidents-budget-would-cut-food-assistance-for-millions-and-radically">cut SNAP</a>. By many measures, SNAP is fulfilling its mandate to <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/food-stamp-act-1964-pl-88-525">meet an essential human need</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219481/original/file-20180517-26258-1anakh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219481/original/file-20180517-26258-1anakh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219481/original/file-20180517-26258-1anakh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219481/original/file-20180517-26258-1anakh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219481/original/file-20180517-26258-1anakh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219481/original/file-20180517-26258-1anakh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219481/original/file-20180517-26258-1anakh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219481/original/file-20180517-26258-1anakh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A supermarket in Muncie, Ind., that accepts SNAP payments.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/muncie-circa-march-2017-sign-retailer-596629331?src=xlgwiVihi99ykhVMtvqPQA-1-0">Jonathan Weiss/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Some fact-checking</h2>
<p>Under new federal rules that <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/house/387855-white-house-urges-support-for-house-farm-bill">President Donald Trump says he would sign</a>, SNAP <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2018/05/facts-on-food-stamp-work-requirements/">work requirements would change</a> and be subjected to new layers of scrutiny. Just about all adults between the ages of 18 and 59 would have to work. The states, which administer this federally funded program, would lose their <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/house-farm-bills-snap-changes-are-a-bad-deal-for-states-and-low-income">enforcement discretion</a>, with the rules becoming stricter and less flexible.</p>
<p>To justify these changes, White House Budget Director Mick Mulvaney and other Republicans have long argued that the government wastes money on aiding “<a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2017/05/24/529831472/trump-wants-families-on-food-stamps-to-get-jobs-the-majority-already-work">able-bodied</a>” people who ought to provide for themselves.</p>
<p>But nearly <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/characteristics-supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-households-fiscal-year-2016">two-thirds of SNAP participants</a> are children, elderly or disabled and thus not expected to work. What’s more, 44 percent of Americans who rely on SNAP live in a household with at least some earnings. Furthermore, when able-bodied adults who aren’t caring for a dependent qualify for SNAP benefits, they <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/facts-about-snap">lose them within three months</a> if they aren’t working at least 20 hours a week. The farm bill would raise this federal minimum to 25 hours in 2026, and the states may set a minimum of up to 30 hours.</p>
<p>Research indicates that these <a href="https://www.irp.wisc.edu/publications/media/webinars/2015/Dec2-2-2015-Webinar-SNAP.pdf">benefits go where they are intended</a>: to the poor. It’s true that some people get benefits who shouldn’t, and others who should get benefits don’t. But SNAP’s approximately 3 percent “<a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/snap-quality-control-error-rates">error rate</a>” is <a href="https://paymentaccuracy.gov/high-priority-programs/">much lower</a> than for Medicaid, Medicare, unemployment insurance and most other big government programs. Losses due to SNAP recipients selling their benefits amount to only about <a href="https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/ops/Trafficking2012-2014.pdf">1.5 percent of the program’s total benefits</a>, according to the USDA. </p>
<p>That is why economists generally regard SNAP as an efficient and effective program. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">States currently don’t have to fund SNAP, but they cover some of the program’s administrative costs and issue the cards beneficiaries use to redeem benefits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://snaped.fns.usda.gov/ebt-cards-several-states">USDA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Encouraging work</h2>
<p>The Trump administration and GOP lawmakers say job requirements <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/saphr2hr_20180515.pdf">make the poor more self-sufficient</a>.</p>
<p>But <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/research/the-relationship-between-snap-and-work-among-low-income-households?fa=view&id=3894">research indicates that SNAP benefits do little to discourage paid work</a>. More than half of the <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/research/the-relationship-between-snap-and-work-among-low-income-households">non-disabled, working-age adults getting these benefits work</a>. Even more – 80 percent – are employed the year before or afterwards.</p>
<p>Besides, SNAP benefits average <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/a-quick-guide-to-snap-eligibility-and-benefits">just $1.40 per meal per person</a>, offering a meager incentive to remain unemployed.</p>
<h2>The economics</h2>
<p>The program currently <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-the-supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap">costs around $70 billion</a> a year, <a href="http://econofact.org/welfare-and-the-federal-budget">around 2 percent of the federal budget</a>. It helps millions of vulnerable Americans by reducing <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.2012.682828">food insecurity</a> and <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=24621">economic hardship</a> and solves other problems indirectly.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=84466">food insecurity increases the risk of many ailments</a>. Children who get too little to eat are more likely to have anemia, asthma, cognitive problems and behavioral problems. Food-insecure working-age adults report more hypertension and sleeping problems. Seniors who don’t eat right are more likely to experience depression. Children of pregnant women who get food assistance are less likely to <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20130375">become obese or have hypertension or diabetes</a>.</p>
<p>Low-income Americans who lose SNAP benefits would probably have more health problems, and the harm can be lasting. This bodes badly for low-income Americans’ ability to support themselves.</p>
<p>And since SNAP automatically responds to the business cycle, the program stimulates local and national economies during economic downturns. Each $5 the government spends on <a href="http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=44749">SNAP triggers $9 of economic activity</a> and every $1 billion in benefits <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap/economic-linkages/">creates roughly 9,000 jobs</a>, economists estimate.</p>
<p>The upshot is that lots of people could soon be spending less on food and thousands of Americans could lose their jobs – mostly in retail and farming. And more Americans will eventually suffer during the next economic downturn.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-trump-teams-poor-arguments-for-slashing-snap-79710">originally published on June 25, 2017</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patricia Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cutting the program formerly known as food stamps would hurt low-income Americans and the whole economy.Patricia Smith, Professor of Economics, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/920072018-02-27T11:29:25Z2018-02-27T11:29:25ZWhy Trump may usher in the biggest gas tax hike ever<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207747/original/file-20180224-108113-6ft582.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pres. Dwight Eisenhower, right, looking at a map in 1955 of highways to be built with federal funds that retired Gen. Lucius Clay, left, had outlined.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-Associated-Press-Domestic-News-Dist-of-/6a172be221884de784a6de404a46db81/24/0">AP Photo/Byron Rollins</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The White House aims to boost what the federal government spends on big public works projects by about <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/INFRASTRUCTURE-211.pdf">US$200 billion</a> over the next decade as a part of its plan to fix the nation’s ailing infrastructure. So far, it’s unclear how the Trump administration plans to pay for most of this spending surge at a time when revenue is about to fall due to <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53437">massive tax cuts</a>.</p>
<p>As the director of energy studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, I’ve studied both <a href="http://warrington.ufl.edu/centers/purc/purcdocs/papers/1312_Kury_ChallengesInQuantifyingOptimalCO2EmissionsPolicy.pdf">taxes on energy</a> and <a href="http://go.pardot.com/l/287662/2018-01-01/b11h9">how the government leverages</a> <a href="http://warrington.ufl.edu/centers/purc/training/p3-certification.asp">what it spends on infrastructure</a> through public-private partnerships. I believe there’s a chance President Donald Trump will usher in the first federal gas tax increase in 25 years to cover the cost of new roads and bridges. </p>
<p>He has, after all, already said he supports a <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/house/374291-trump-talk-riles-advocates-on-both-sides-of-gas-tax">25-cent-per-gallon increase</a> the <a href="https://www.uschamber.com/above-the-fold/its-time-raise-the-federal-gas-tax">U.S Chamber of Commerce is backing</a>, even if that sounds hard to sell to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-20/gas-tax-increase-would-hit-trump-states-hardest-koch-groups-say">his own political base</a> and other conservatives.</p>
<p>To explain why the government may finally adjust the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-infrastructure/trump-backs-25-cent-a-gallon-gasoline-tax-hike-senator-idUSKCN1FY33T">18.4-cent-a-gallon tax</a>, here’s a historical snapshot.</p>
<p><iframe id="zJqEz" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zJqEz/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The first 40 years</h2>
<p>This resilient levy is a major source of U.S. funding for roads and transit today. It <a href="https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/treasar/pages/59359_1930-1934.pdf">originated</a> during the Great Depression as a “temporary” penny-per-gallon gasoline tax. At the time, a gallon <a href="https://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-915-march-7-2016-average-historical-annual-gasoline-pump-price-1929-2015">cost about 18 cents</a>, or $2.61 in 2015 dollars.</p>
<p>As he signed the <a href="https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/treasar/pages/59359_1930-1934.pdf">Revenue Act of 1932</a> into law, <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/gastax.cfm">President Herbert Hoover</a> lauded “the willingness of our people to accept this added burden in these times in order impregnably to establish the credit of the federal government.”</p>
<p>The original gas tax, an emergency measure intended to <a href="https://itep.org/wp-content/uploads/pb43fedgastax.pdf">bolster the budget and fund national defense spending</a>, not meet transportation needs, was slated to expire in 1933. Instead, it <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/gastax.cfm">remained in force throughout Franklin D. Roosevelt’s administration</a> over the objections of the oil, automotive and travel industries due to <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL30304.pdf">persistent budget deficits throughout the New Deal and World War II</a>. It became a <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-the-us-federal-gas-tax-3321598">permanent 1.5-cent levy in 1941</a>.</p>
<p>Multiple efforts to do away with the gas tax ever since have failed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207748/original/file-20180224-108128-1w10vu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207748/original/file-20180224-108128-1w10vu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207748/original/file-20180224-108128-1w10vu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207748/original/file-20180224-108128-1w10vu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207748/original/file-20180224-108128-1w10vu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207748/original/file-20180224-108128-1w10vu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207748/original/file-20180224-108128-1w10vu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207748/original/file-20180224-108128-1w10vu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first gas tax had been in effect for seven years before this 1939 photo of a Waco, Texas, gas station was shot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/gardeners-cut-rate-package-house-sign-245961319?src=r2GwOO0LZRZYOfm9HqkACQ-1-4">Everett Historical</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/82/hr4473/text">Congress again scheduled the tax’s repeal in 1951</a> when it increased it to 2 cents as source of revenue related to the Korean War. Instead, lawmakers agreed to keep the tax on the books to help pay for one of President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s top priorities, the <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/content/celebrating-50-years-eisenhower-interstate-highway-system">national interstate highway system</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.history.com/topics/interstate-highway-system">In 1956</a> the levy rose once more, to 3 cents, when Americans were paying about <a href="https://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-915-march-7-2016-average-historical-annual-gasoline-pump-price-1929-2015">30 cents for a gallon of gas</a>. At the same time, the government established the <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/olsp/fundingfederalaid/07.cfm">Highway Trust Fund</a> to pay for building and maintaining the new interstates.</p>
<p>The tax rose to <a href="https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Rpt87-367.pdf">4 cents per gallon in 1959</a> and froze at that level for more than two decades.</p>
<h2>Running on empty</h2>
<p>Gas tax revenue stopped keeping up with the expenses it was supposed to cover in the early 1970s following a severe <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-great-inflation.asp">bout of inflation</a> and OPEC’s <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/opec-oil-embargo-causes-and-effects-of-the-crisis-3305806">oil embargo</a>. U.S. gas prices soared from about 36 cents per gallon in 1972 to $1.31 in 1981.</p>
<p>Responding to what members of both major political parties saw as a <a href="https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/archives/speeches/1983/10683a.htm">transportation infrastructure crisis</a>, Congress more than doubled the tax to 9 cents per gallon as part of the <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/97/hr6211">Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982</a>. The same law split the Highway Trust Fund and its revenue stream into two parts: The first 8 cents would finance roadwork while the other penny would finance mass transit projects.</p>
<p>Nine cents may have struck drivers as a sharp increase, but public spending on transportation infrastructure would continue to <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/49910">fall as a percentage of all outlays</a>. </p>
<p><iframe id="49ruy" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/49ruy/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In 1984, Congress increased spending on highways by funneling proceeds from fines and other penalties that <a href="https://www.ccjdigital.com/fmcsa-expands-out-of-service-order-ability-increases-fines-for-violations/">businesses pay for safety violations</a>, such as failing to label hazardous materials or forcing drivers to work too many hours in a row. </p>
<p>Congress boosted the tax twice more in the 1990s but primarily to <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/101st-congress/house-bill/5835">reduce the then-ballooning federal deficit</a>. Only half of a 5-cent increase in 1990 went to highways and transit, while a 4.3-cent lift three years later went entirely to lowering the deficit. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207183/original/file-20180220-116327-czd1u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207183/original/file-20180220-116327-czd1u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207183/original/file-20180220-116327-czd1u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=912&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207183/original/file-20180220-116327-czd1u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=912&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207183/original/file-20180220-116327-czd1u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=912&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207183/original/file-20180220-116327-czd1u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1146&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207183/original/file-20180220-116327-czd1u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1146&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207183/original/file-20180220-116327-czd1u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1146&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Newt Gingrich, right, in 1996. The then-House speaker was predicting incorrectly that Congress might repeal a gasoline tax hike that took effect three years earlier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-A-CA-USA-APHS252606-Gingrich-Gas-1996/b57cb858a43b4320b981372d62f83e56/1/0">AP Photo/Tammy Lechner</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By 1997, the government had <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL30304.pdf">redirected all gas tax revenue reserved for deficit reduction</a> to the <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/gastax.cfm">Highway Trust Fund</a>, where it still flows today.</p>
<p>Along the way, <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/gastax.cfm">other federal fuel taxes</a> arose, including a 24.4 cent-per-gallon diesel tax and taxes on methanol and compressed natural gas. And <a href="https://www.taxadmin.org/assets/docs/Research/Rates/mf.pdf">state fuel taxes</a>, which in most cases <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL30304.pdf">began before the federal gas tax</a>, range from as low as 8.95 cents per gallon in Alaska to as high as 57.6 cents per gallon in Pennsylvania.</p>
<h2>Making do</h2>
<p>Since 1993, when the federal gas tax was first parked at 18.4 cents, inflation and <a href="https://edzarenski.com/2016/01/31/construction-inflation-cost-index/">rising construction costs</a> have eroded its effectiveness as a transportation-related revenue source. In addition, U.S. <a href="https://www.wired.com/2015/04/electric-cars-intensifying-highway-funding-fiasco/">vehicles have grown more fuel-efficient</a> overall – which means Americans <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=A">use less fuel</a> for every mile they drive.</p>
<p>As a result, highway and transit spending have significantly outpaced the revenue collected from the gas tax and other sources. Since 2008, the government has spent <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/highwaytrustfund/docs/fe-1_dec18.pdf">$80 billion</a> on highways that it had to take from other sources. </p>
<p>But it’s still not enough. The <a href="https://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/roads/">American Society of Civil Engineers</a>, which gives U.S. infrastructure a D+, is calling on the government and private sector to increase spending on roads and bridges by at least $1 trillion within a decade.</p>
<h2>Unusual politics</h2>
<p>Like the sharp gas tax increase during the Reagan administration, a 25-cent hike that Trump might sign into law would come at a time when the tax is relatively low as a percentage of the retail price of gasoline. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fK09W/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>And like that <a href="http://cstl-cla.semo.edu/rdrenka/ui320-75/presandcongress.asp">early 1980s precedent</a>, it would come at a politically surprising moment. Anti-tax conservatives were ascendant then. Now, Republicans, who say they believe in <a href="https://prod-static-ngop-pbl.s3.amazonaws.com/media/documents/DRAFT_12_FINAL%5b1%5d-ben_1468872234.pdf?mid=76323&rid=13483726">keeping taxes low</a>, control the White House and Congress.</p>
<p>However, Trump has pledged to spend billions of federal dollars on <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-infrastructure-plan-rests-on-some-rickety-assumptions-91712">new roads</a> and bridges when there’s no money in the Highway Trust Fund for that. The money has to come from somewhere, and the <a href="https://www.uschamber.com/speech/america-s-infrastructure-summit-time-modernize">Chamber of Commerce projects</a> that raising the tax by a quarter could generate more than $375 billion in new revenue over a decade.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92007/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore Kury, Ph. D. is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center where he studies the economic impacts of energy policy. The Public Utility Research Center is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission, neither of which has editorial control of any of the content produced by the Center.</span></em></p>Despite all their anti-tax sentiments, Republicans from Hoover to Trump have embraced this levy on sales at the pump.Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/918132018-02-15T11:37:40Z2018-02-15T11:37:40ZFrom FDR’s food stamps to Trump’s harvest boxes: The history of helping the poor get enough to eat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206394/original/file-20180214-174997-1ewc7k1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The first food stamps program, created amid the Great Depression, lasted four years. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://docs.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/images/photodb/27-0844a.gif">Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Trump administration would like to <a href="http://www.supermarketnews.com/laws-regulations/trump-s-proposed-budget-makes-changes-snap">slash what the government spends on food</a> for low-income Americans.</p>
<p>Its latest budget proposal calls for reducing Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) outlays by US$200 billion over the next decade and replacing about half of the aid delivered through this mainstay of the American safety net with what it’s calling “<a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/12/food-stamps-trump-administration-343245">harvest boxes</a>” of nonperishable items like pasta, canned meat and peanut butter. <a href="https://www.agri-pulse.com/ext/resources/pdfs/Americas-Harvest-Box.pdf">Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue</a> says this new approach would cut costs and give states, which administer the SNAP program, “flexibility.” </p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9781137520913">researching the history of SNAP</a> and other government efforts to help Americans who face economic hardship get enough to eat, I have been struck by how, while the leaders who pioneered the program and its precursors were Democrats, it has long benefited from bipartisan support. Even as other welfare spending was cut, the kind of assistance that used to be called food stamps has persisted.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8uwDjPIphdg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This USDA video, which includes some graphic images, recounts the history of food stamps.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>SNAP’s backstory</h2>
<p>As part of his <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/nslp/history_4">New Deal</a>, President Franklin D. Roosevelt broke with a governmental tradition of leaving the job of fighting hunger entirely to charities.</p>
<p>Initially, his administration sought to alleviate the spiking poverty rate brought about by the Great Depression by directly distributing surplus pork, dairy products, flour and other surplus food to people who had trouble getting food on the table. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206448/original/file-20180214-124893-by3srg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206448/original/file-20180214-124893-by3srg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206448/original/file-20180214-124893-by3srg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206448/original/file-20180214-124893-by3srg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206448/original/file-20180214-124893-by3srg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206448/original/file-20180214-124893-by3srg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206448/original/file-20180214-124893-by3srg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/206448/original/file-20180214-124893-by3srg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A mother loading children, potatoes, cabbage and butter obtained through a New Deal-era program into a wagon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Associated-Press-Domestic-News-Illinois-United-/6cbe8e8058e4da11af9f0014c2589dfb/4/0">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>FDR’s administration then adopted a new model in 1939 that used food stamps for the first time in a short-lived program. Low-income people could buy stamps and redeem them for groceries worth 50 percent more than what they spent – as long as they spent the bonus ones on items designated as “surplus,” such as eggs, butter and beans. </p>
<p>Beneficiaries could, for example, pay $10 for $15 worth of stamps. They would be free to spend the orange-colored stamps they’d get with the $10 from their own pockets on any groceries they wanted. The $5 in free blue-colored stamps that came as a bonus, however, could buy only surplus food.</p>
<p>The program ended four years later amid the <a href="http://prospect.org/article/way-we-won-americas-economic-breakthrough-during-world-war-ii">economic and employment boom</a> World War II brought about. But some lawmakers continued to support the concept of establishing a permanent version. </p>
<p>President John F. Kennedy, who had expressed shock upon witnessing dire poverty in <a href="https://livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe50s/money_09.html">West Virginia</a> when he ran for office, immediately made food stamps widely available again through an <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=58853">executive order</a> that expanded a <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=8801">small-scale USDA program</a> already in place. Like its FDR-era precursor, the measure required beneficiaries to spend some of their own money before they could get this assistance.</p>
<p>Lyndon B. Johnson, Kennedy’s successor, signed the <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/short-history-snap">Food Stamp Act of 1964</a>, codifying the program, which took another decade to spread nationwide.</p>
<p>Republicans also championed food stamps. President Richard Nixon expanded the program’s reach during his administration. Senator Bob Dole, a Kansas Republican, led the charge with Sen. George McGovern, a South Dakota Democrat. Working together, they got the <a href="http://doleinstitute.org/timeline/event/food-and-agriculture-act-of-1977/">Food and Agriculture Act of 1977</a> passed. </p>
<p>Following that law’s enactment, beneficiaries no longer had to buy the food stamps. The measure also made <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/pressrelease/2013/fns-001213">food stamp fraud much harder</a> to pull off and therefore rare by introducing <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/short-history-snap">federal funding for states to crack down</a> on abuses and introducing incentives for low error rates.</p>
<p>Food stamps then survived the <a href="https://theconversation.com/welfare-as-we-know-it-now-6-questions-answered-81367">welfare overhaul of 1996</a>, which sharply restricted eligibility for other kinds of government assistance for the poor. Yet lawmakers left the food stamp program intact, making it the only remaining option available for millions of low-income Americans.</p>
<p>In 2002, President <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137520920_1">George W. Bush</a> expanded access to this nutritional support program for immigrants with legal status in a concrete example of what he meant when he embraced “<a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?169821-1/compassionate-conservatism">compassionate conservatism</a>.”</p>
<p>Six years later, the government rebranded the program as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. By that point, the stamps themselves had been gradually replaced across the country with a more modern mechanism. Americans eligible for these benefits were instead getting their groceries subsidized electronically at checkout counters by using <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/ebt/general-electronic-benefit-transfer-ebt-information">plastic cards known as EBTs</a> – as mandated when the government undertook <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/short-history-snap">welfare reform</a>. Among other things, the cards made it harder to commit fraud because no one could sell the stamps instead of using them to buy their own groceries.</p>
<p><iframe id="iitHT" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iitHT/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>For the most part, the federal government has avoided getting involved with the direct distribution of food. Exceptions include its decision to give “<a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/1982/1021/102153.html">government cheese</a>” to the poor during the recession of the early 1980s and a longstanding practice of distributing food – especially <a href="http://seedsofnativehealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Hunts.pdf">nonperishable items</a> – on <a href="https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/fdpir/pfs-fdpir.pdf">Indian reservations</a>.</p>
<p>The bid to fight hunger with stockpiled processed cheese during the Reagan administration proved relatively brief and hard to pull off for logistical reasons. But “government cheese” has lived on through punchlines in <a href="https://youtu.be/TOryVF_iM9Q?t=1m31s">movies</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xv2VIEY9-A8">TV shows</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyvMdqvH2zg">music</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Xv2VIEY9-A8?wmode=transparent&start=173" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The late Chris Farley warned two characters in this ‘Saturday Night Live’ sketch that they could wind up ‘eating a steady diet of government cheese.’</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Carrying on</h2>
<p><a href="https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.pdf">More than 40 million Americans</a> now get food assistance through SNAP, a federal program administered by the states. Large shares of the households getting these benefits include children or members who earn money but not enough to make ends meet. And the program has a proven track record of reducing <a href="https://poverty.ucdavis.edu/article/food-stamps-helped-reduce-poverty-rate-study-finds">poverty and hunger</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://time.com/5155362/trump-cut-food-stamps/">total tab</a>, which <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/blog/snap-caseloads-and-costs-still-falling">rises when the economy falters</a> and declines during boom times, was about $68 billion in 2017.</p>
<p>I believe that Trump’s harvest-box concept would be a logistical nightmare to carry out. In the <a href="https://newfoodeconomy.org/trump-snap-harvest-boxes-blue-apron-infrastructure-cost/">rather unlikely</a> event that the cuts he seeks do happen, it would become harder for low-income people to get healthy food.</p>
<p>That, in turn, would increase the already large burden on <a href="http://www.feedingamerica.org/our-work/food-bank-network.html">food banks</a> and other nonprofits helping the many Americans who slip through the safety net in good times and bad to avoid hunger.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Jw7uT1jOt0o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Feeding America, a nonprofit network of food banks, describes how SNAP works.</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91813/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Gritter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>SNAP and its precursors have weathered plenty of efforts to shrink the safety net. Its decades of bipartisan support make it likely to survive this one.Matt Gritter, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Angelo State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/917122018-02-12T19:06:25Z2018-02-12T19:06:25ZTrump’s infrastructure plan rests on some rickety assumptions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206012/original/file-20180212-58315-zu37lf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The new plan is supposed to boost the construction of new roads, bridges and other public works projects.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Closer-Look-Road-Projects/31ac874ef44c492ca9bffa712faabcb2/75/0">AP Photo/Seth Perlman</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Experts greeted the long-awaited details of President Donald Trump’s promise to unleash a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/INFRASTRUCTURE-211.pdf">US$1.5 trillion wave of new infrastructure</a> spending <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-tax/2018/02/12/infrastructure-week-100656">with skepticism</a>.</p>
<p>There’s widespread concern about whether his plan can deliver because it puts only <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/building-stronger-america-president-donald-j-trumps-american-infrastructure-initiative/">$200 billion in federal funding</a> on the table, which Democrats say is roughly <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.boldprogressives.org/images/Trump_Budget_Infrastructure_Analysis.pdf">equal to the money that the White House has been trying to cut</a> from similar programs, such as the Highway Trust Fund. There are also <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/371790-lawmakers-left-with-more-questions-than-answers-on-trump-infrastructure">ample questions</a>
from the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-infrastructure/trump-urges-congress-to-help-stimulate-1-5-trillion-in-infrastructure-spending-idUSKBN1FK0C7">lawmakers who need to approve that money</a> about where even that sum will come from.</p>
<p>As expected, <a href="http://fox40.com/2018/02/12/trump-infrastructure-plan-relies-on-state-local-funding/">Trump wants</a> to rely on states, local governments and, most importantly, <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/01/so-much-for-that-bipartisan-infrastructure-plan/551849/">private investors</a> to foot most of the bill. As researchers studying ways to boost private infrastructure spending, we believe that it will fall short of the target investment because it does not address private investors’ key concerns, and it would not work for many kinds of high-priority projects.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"956225056161624070"}"></div></p>
<h2>Matching and mismatching</h2>
<p>Half the proposed new federal funding – $100 billion – would cover the cost of making direct grants to local governments intended to spur more infrastructure spending. Another $50 billion would cover the cost of new block grants for rural projects. Some $20 billion would support what the White House calls new “<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-infrastructure-plan-details-bill-2018-2">transformative projects</a>.” The remaining $30 billion would help pay for miscellaneous existing infrastructure programs.</p>
<p>Trump’s plan would also streamline and expedite the process now required for legally mandated <a href="https://www.bna.com/trump-call-faster-n57982088327/">environmental reviews</a>. It would also make it easier for states to raise money through tolls, user fees and the sale of land and other assets.</p>
<p>Overall, the plan rests on the premise that the government can <a href="https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/articles/2018-01-31/trumps-infrastructure-pledge-in-state-of-the-union-raises-many-questions">leverage private investment</a> to help pay the nation’s infrastructure bill. </p>
<p>That is why <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/trump-unveils-long-promised-plan-for-upgrading-u-s-public-works">his plan favors</a> “<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-to-fix-americas-crumbling-bridges-33781">public-private partnerships</a>,” or P3s, the most common way governments attract and <a href="https://iconsofinfrastructure.com/will-trump-use-p3-help-infrastructure-take-off/">leverage private investment</a>.</p>
<p>Here’s <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/1208_transportation_istrate_puentes.pdf">how they work</a>. A public sponsor – either the federal government agency or a state or local government agency – contracts out part or all of the financing, construction, maintenance and operation of a project to a group of private companies following a competitive bidding process.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"963086393437286405"}"></div></p>
<h2>P3 bottlenecks</h2>
<p>The amount of infrastructure money in new U.S. P3s has waned in recent years. It fell to <a href="https://home.kpmg.com/au/en/home/insights/2015/06/public-private-partnerships-global-trends.html">$710 million between 2011 and 2014</a> from higher levels seen a few years earlier, the most recent period for which data is available. And P3s only facilitated about <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/113th-congress-2013-2014/reports/45157-PublicPrivatePartnerships.pdf">1.5 percent</a> of the $4 trillion all levels of government spent on highways between 1989 and 2013, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.</p>
<p>However, the number of pension funds and other <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/institutionalinvestor.asp">institutional investors</a> putting money into infrastructure <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-infrastructure-pensions/public-pension-funds-seek-infrastructure-as-market-heats-up-idUSKCN0YZ22J">has doubled</a>.</p>
<p>What’s been holding things up?</p>
<p>Investors do not typically say that a lack of federal subsidies, like the $200 billion Trump seeks, is a <a href="https://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/private-pensions/Private-financing-and-government-support-to-promote-LTI-in-infrastructure.pdf">big bottleneck</a>. Instead, to draw much more private investment, the U.S. needs <a href="https://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/private-pensions/Private-financing-and-government-support-to-promote-LTI-in-infrastructure.pdf">clear, consistent regulations</a> that will help make projects more likely to withstand any shifts in political power – such as when the majority party changes at any level of government.</p>
<p>Establishing a more successful track record for these partnerships, which have <a href="https://www.ncppp.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/CRS-Insights-Indiana-Toll-Road-Bankruptcy-Chills-Climate-for-P3s.pdf">often faltered</a>, will also help.</p>
<p>These proposed changes could help raise money, but they would not help state or local governments reassure their constituents that P3s serve their best interest.</p>
<p>One step the U.S. could take now is to follow the examples set by <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/publicsectorreform/people/office-of-projects-victoria.html">Australia</a> and <a href="http://www.p3canada.ca/en/about-p3s/">Canada</a>, where more infrastructure is being built through these partnerships.</p>
<p>Specialized P3 teams in those countries have developed uniform competitive bidding processes, standardized contracts and project pipelines all based on lessons learned from prior partnerships. They also help identify projects that will help the public the most, rather than those with the greatest potential to generate revenue.</p>
<h2>Californian precedents</h2>
<p>The spotty track record for some U.S. efforts to establish P3s underscores the importance of that kind of coordination.</p>
<p>California, for example, sought in 1989 to harness four of these partnerships as “<a href="http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/innovfinance/public-private-partnerships/PPP_main.html">demonstration</a>” projects. It <a href="http://whoswholegal.com/news/features/article/30387/public-private-partnerships-successes-failures-plans-future">only completed two</a> of those four.</p>
<p>First, California’s transportation department created a <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/policy-initiatives/build-america/sr-91-express-lanes-orange-county-ca">P3 to build express lanes for its busy SR-91</a> highway to ease Orange County congestion near Los Angeles. </p>
<p>Because the department agreed to not build <a href="http://whoswholegal.com/news/features/article/30387/public-private-partnerships-successes-failures-plans-future">free roads running parallel to the tolled ones</a>, a public outcry ensued after the 10-mile-long road opened to traffic in 1995.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.transportation.gov/policy-initiatives/build-america/sr-91-express-lanes-orange-county-ca">Orange County</a> then bought out the private-sector partner stake in this project eight years later, cutting its long-term contract short.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.transportation.gov/policy-initiatives/build-america/south-bay-expressway-sr-125-san-diego-ca">Expanding the South Bay Expressway</a>, the other P3 California announced in 1989 that got done, took until 2007 to complete. Three years later, the project’s private partner <a href="http://medcraveonline.com/MOJCE/MOJCE-02-00030.php">declared bankruptcy</a>, largely because of years of litigation that delayed the onset of tolls – which then generated less revenue than expected.</p>
<p>These planning errors, which were due to lack of experience, <a href="http://www.texasturf.org/2012-06-01-03-09-30/latest-news/public-private-partnerships/1928-taxpayers-get-shafted-in-bankrupt-san-diego-tollway">undercut confidence</a> in the partnership approach for investors and the public alike. </p>
<p>We believe that unless the Trump administration – despite his <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/how-trump-could-shrink-the-government-while-still-keeping-the-good-stuff-214679">disdain for bureaucracy</a> – establishes new government offices to oversee federally backed P3s, it is likely to repeat the errors that hampered California’s pioneering projects.</p>
<h2>If they build it</h2>
<p>With infrastructure, investors are looking for <a href="http://edhec.infrastructure.institute/wp-content/uploads/publications/blanc-brude_2016c.pdf">relatively stable returns</a> and less risk, more akin to bonds than stocks. This makes financing these partnerships attractive for pension funds and other institutional investors.</p>
<p>At the same time, it can make investors more eager to back projects that already exist and are generating revenue through user fees, such as toll roads, airports, ports and some rail projects with nearby land that can be sold or leased. </p>
<p>In the U.S., however, the government mainly needs the private sector’s help meeting other less profitable priorities, such as improving <a href="http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2017/06/13/rural-americas-drinking-water-crisis-no-help-from-trump-budget/">water quality</a>, expanding <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2015/06/03/the-10-u-s-metro-rail-systems-that-lose-the-most-money-per-passenger/">public transit</a> and building <a href="https://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Levees-Final.pdf">levees</a>.</p>
<p>Although those projects may not be attractive to investors, they can stoke economic growth and productivity while <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedbne/y1990isepp11-33.html">fostering a higher quality of life</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dwayne Boudreaux Jr., owner of a Circle Food Store in New Orleans, shown dumping dirty water that was vacuumed up after a flood. His city needs more than $11 billion to update key parts of its infrastructure but has only about $2 billion in hand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-Infrastructure-New-Orleans/73f36bf2fcd74e549a0f0bafdbd919b5/12/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>India’s mixed results</h2>
<p>Interestingly, Trump’s $100 billion <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/building-stronger-america-president-donald-j-trumps-american-infrastructure-initiative/">Infrastructure Incentives Program</a> resembles <a href="https://www.pppinindia.gov.in/schemes-for-financial-support">India’s approach</a>, which has had mixed results since its 2004 inception. There, the national government foots about 20 percent of the bill when it enters into <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0974930613488295">public-private partnerships</a>, just as the White House proposes to do.</p>
<p>The Indian policy was intended for toll roads and airports for which the government fixed the user fees. The subsidy closed the gap between this regulated revenue stream and investors’ expectations. </p>
<p>However, India <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0974930613488295">has failed to spend most of the money it budgeted</a> for this initiative, suggesting that it will take more than subsidies to entice private investment.</p>
<p>Between India’s track record and signals about insufficient federal guidance and support for public-private partnerships, we doubt that Trump’s plan can catalyze the infrastructure spending he envisions.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version of an article published on Feb. 9, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The long-awaited $1.5 trillion plan fails to address some major obstacles to private investment.Caroline Nowacki, PhD Candidate, Global Projects Center, Stanford UniversityKate Gasparro, Graduate Research Fellow of Sustainable Design and Construction, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/803502018-02-09T13:28:46Z2018-02-09T13:28:46ZWhy Trump’s infrastructure ambitions are likely to stall<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205165/original/file-20180206-88788-1aqw49g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The White House favors public-private partnerships for widening congested roads and getting other pricey projects done.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Commute-Travel/f721e0c7188340a49342ad08d5c08016/2/0">AP Photo/Charles Dharapak</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump recently raised the ante with his promise to unleash a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/30/trump-advisor-cohn-president-to-focus-on-1-point-5-trillion-infrastructure-plan-tonight.html">wave of new infrastructure</a> spending. During his first <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exsOim0Lyl4">State of Union address</a>, he conjured up images of “gleaming new roads, bridges, highways, railways and waterways all across our land” without getting into the details.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/trump-to-unveil-infrastructure-plan-monday--white-house-official.html">White House will soon unveil</a>
Trump’s “<a href="https://www.axios.com/draft-white-house-infrastructure-plan-1516644555-0d43f417-6ccd-43f7-9eae-3ccbe711314d.html">Infrastructure Incentives Initiative</a>,” which Trump now says will usher in at least <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-27/trump-reverses-course-on-plan-to-rely-on-private-money-for-roads">US$1.5 trillion in spending</a>. That’s a 50 percent jump from the $1 trillion he had previously pledged and nearly triple the money he talked up on the <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/371790-lawmakers-left-with-more-questions-than-answers-on-trump-infrastructure">campaign trail</a>.</p>
<p>With only <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/02/infrastructure-week-is-always-next-week/552047/">$200 billion in federal funding</a> apparently on the table, and <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/371790-lawmakers-left-with-more-questions-than-answers-on-trump-infrastructure">ample questions</a>
from the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-infrastructure/trump-urges-congress-to-help-stimulate-1-5-trillion-in-infrastructure-spending-idUSKBN1FK0C7">lawmakers who need to approve that money</a> about where even that sum will come from, will the plan deliver?</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.axios.com/draft-white-house-infrastructure-plan-1516644555-0d43f417-6ccd-43f7-9eae-3ccbe711314d.html">draft of his plan</a> indicates it would rely on states, local governments and, most importantly, <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/01/so-much-for-that-bipartisan-infrastructure-plan/551849/">private investors</a> to contribute the rest of the $1.5 trillion pie. As researchers studying ways to boost private infrastructure spending, we believe that it will fall short because it does not address private investors’ key concerns, and it would not work for many kinds of high-priority projects.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"956225056161624070"}"></div></p>
<h2>Matching and mismatching</h2>
<p>During his address, Trump repeated a message he’s made many times before: that <a href="https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/articles/2018-01-31/trumps-infrastructure-pledge-in-state-of-the-union-raises-many-questions">private investment</a> should help pay the nation’s infrastructure bill. “Every federal dollar should be leveraged by partnering with state and local governments and, where appropriate, tapping into private-sector investment – to permanently fix the infrastructure deficit,” he said.</p>
<p>That makes it sound like he favors “<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-to-fix-americas-crumbling-bridges-33781">public-private partnerships</a>,” or P3s, the most common way governments attract and <a href="https://iconsofinfrastructure.com/will-trump-use-p3-help-infrastructure-take-off/">leverage private investment</a>.</p>
<p>Here’s <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/1208_transportation_istrate_puentes.pdf">how they work</a>. A public sponsor – either the federal government agency or a state or local government agency – contracts out part or all of the financing, construction, maintenance and operation of a project to a group of private companies following a competitive bidding process.</p>
<p>The amount of infrastructure money in new U.S. P3s has waned in recent years. It fell to <a href="https://home.kpmg.com/au/en/home/insights/2015/06/public-private-partnerships-global-trends.html">$710 million between 2011 and 2014</a> from higher levels seen a few years earlier, the most recent period for which data is available. And P3s only facilitated about <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/113th-congress-2013-2014/reports/45157-PublicPrivatePartnerships.pdf">1.5 percent</a> of the $4 trillion all levels of government spent on highways between 1989 and 2013, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.</p>
<p>However, the number of pension funds and other <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/institutionalinvestor.asp">institutional investors</a> putting money into infrastructure <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-infrastructure-pensions/public-pension-funds-seek-infrastructure-as-market-heats-up-idUSKCN0YZ22J">has doubled</a>.</p>
<p>What’s holding things up?</p>
<p>Investors do not say that a lack of federal subsidies, like the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/05/the-phantom-infrastructure-proposal-in-trumps-budget/527859/">$200 billion</a> Trump reportedly seeks, is a <a href="https://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/private-pensions/Private-financing-and-government-support-to-promote-LTI-in-infrastructure.pdf">big bottleneck</a>. Instead, to draw much more private investment, the U.S. needs <a href="https://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/private-pensions/Private-financing-and-government-support-to-promote-LTI-in-infrastructure.pdf">clear, consistent regulations</a> that will help make projects more likely to withstand any shifts in political power – such as when the majority party changes at any level of government.</p>
<p>Establishing a more successful track record for these partnerships, which have <a href="https://www.ncppp.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/CRS-Insights-Indiana-Toll-Road-Bankruptcy-Chills-Climate-for-P3s.pdf">often faltered</a>, will also help.</p>
<p>One step the U.S. could take now is to follow the examples set by <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/publicsectorreform/people/office-of-projects-victoria.html">Australia</a> and <a href="http://www.p3canada.ca/en/about-p3s/">Canada</a>, where more infrastructure is being built through these partnerships. Specialized P3 teams in those countries have developed uniform competitive bidding processes, standardized contracts and project pipelines all based on lessons learned from prior partnerships.</p>
<h2>Californian precedents</h2>
<p>The spotty track record for some U.S. efforts to establish P3s underscores the importance of that kind of coordination.</p>
<p>California, for example, sought in 1989 to harness four of these partnerships as “<a href="http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/innovfinance/public-private-partnerships/PPP_main.html">demonstration</a>” projects. It <a href="http://whoswholegal.com/news/features/article/30387/public-private-partnerships-successes-failures-plans-future">only completed two</a> of those four.</p>
<p>First, California’s transportation department created a <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/policy-initiatives/build-america/sr-91-express-lanes-orange-county-ca">P3 to build express lanes for its busy SR-91</a> highway to ease Orange County congestion near Los Angeles. </p>
<p>Because the department agreed to not build <a href="http://whoswholegal.com/news/features/article/30387/public-private-partnerships-successes-failures-plans-future">free roads running parallel to the tolled ones</a>, a public outcry ensued after the 10-mile-long road opened to traffic in 1995.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.transportation.gov/policy-initiatives/build-america/sr-91-express-lanes-orange-county-ca">Orange County</a> then bought out the private-sector partner stake in this project eight years later, cutting its long-term contract short.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.transportation.gov/policy-initiatives/build-america/south-bay-expressway-sr-125-san-diego-ca">Expanding the South Bay Expressway</a>, the other P3 California announced in 1989 that got done, took until 2007 to complete. Three years later, the project’s private partner <a href="http://medcraveonline.com/MOJCE/MOJCE-02-00030.php">declared bankruptcy</a>, largely because of years of litigation that delayed the onset of tolls – which then generated less revenue than expected.</p>
<p>These planning errors, which were due to lack of experience, <a href="http://www.texasturf.org/2012-06-01-03-09-30/latest-news/public-private-partnerships/1928-taxpayers-get-shafted-in-bankrupt-san-diego-tollway">undercut confidence</a> in the partnership approach for investors and the public alike. </p>
<p>But the Trump plan’s leaked preliminary details, such as an “<a href="https://www.axios.com/draft-white-house-infrastructure-plan-1516644555-0d43f417-6ccd-43f7-9eae-3ccbe711314d.html">interagency selection committee</a>” administered by the Commerce Department and “federal technical assistance” with “no funding provided,” sound like they will fall short of what’s required.</p>
<p>We believe that unless the Trump administration – despite his <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/how-trump-could-shrink-the-government-while-still-keeping-the-good-stuff-214679">disdain for bureaucracy</a> – establishes new government offices to oversee federally backed P3s, it is likely to repeat the errors that hampered California’s pioneering projects.</p>
<h2>If they build it</h2>
<p>With infrastructure, investors are looking for <a href="http://edhec.infrastructure.institute/wp-content/uploads/publications/blanc-brude_2016c.pdf">relatively stable returns</a> and less risk, more akin to bonds than stocks. This makes financing these partnerships attractive for pension funds and other institutional investors.</p>
<p>At the same time, it makes investors more eager to back projects that already exist and are generating revenue through user fees, such as toll roads, airports, ports and some transit projects with nearby land that can be sold or leased. </p>
<p>In the U.S., however, the government mainly needs the private sector’s help meeting other less profitable priorities, such as improving <a href="http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2017/06/13/rural-americas-drinking-water-crisis-no-help-from-trump-budget/">water quality</a>, expanding <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2015/06/03/the-10-u-s-metro-rail-systems-that-lose-the-most-money-per-passenger/">public transit</a> and building <a href="https://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Levees-Final.pdf">levees</a>.</p>
<p>Although those projects may not be attractive to investors, they can stoke economic growth and productivity while <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedbne/y1990isepp11-33.html">fostering a higher quality of life</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205540/original/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dwayne Boudreaux Jr., owner of a Circle Food Store in New Orleans, shown dumping dirty water that was vacuumed up after a flood. His city needs more than $11 billion to update key parts of its infrastructure but has only about $2 billion in hand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-Infrastructure-New-Orleans/73f36bf2fcd74e549a0f0bafdbd919b5/12/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>India’s mixed results</h2>
<p>Interestingly, Trump’s infrastructure plan may resemble <a href="https://www.pppinindia.gov.in/schemes-for-financial-support">India’s approach</a>, which has had mixed results since its 2004 inception. There, the national government foots about 20 percent of the bill when it enters into <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0974930613488295">public-private partnerships</a>, just as the White House proposes to do.</p>
<p>The Indian policy was intended for toll roads and airports for which the government fixed the user fees. The subsidy closed the gap between this regulated revenue stream and investors’ expectations. </p>
<p>However, India <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0974930613488295">has failed to spend most of the money it budgeted</a> for this initiative, suggesting that it will take more than subsidies to entice private investment.</p>
<p>Between India’s track record and signals about insufficient federal guidance and support for public-private partnerships, we doubt that Trump’s plan, as drafted, would catalyze the $1.5 trillion in infrastructure spending he envisions.</p>
<p>What’s more, we’re concerned that Trump’s proposed plan would primarily aid the kinds of projects that already attract private dollars, leaving many big priorities without a federal assist.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caroline Nowacki's research is funded by the Stanford Global Projects Center</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Gasparro receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>The $1.5 trillion plan he’s proposing would do the most for ventures that don’t really need the government’s help and ignores some major obstacles to private investment.Caroline Nowacki, PhD Candidate, Global Projects Center, Stanford UniversityKate Gasparro, Graduate Research Fellow of Sustainable Design and Construction, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/821332017-11-09T22:26:22Z2017-11-09T22:26:22ZHow the proposed budget and tax cuts could stunt new affordable housing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193193/original/file-20171103-1011-1ebm8xi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For many Americans, there is no such thing as affordable housing in today's real estate market.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/shocked-couple-looking-high-price-label-327113930?src=YhLkhsvV9gTFogZ0PqRYNg-1-34">Aleutie/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Low-income Americans are already struggling to keep a roof over their heads due to a growing <a href="http://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/Gap-Report_2017.pdf">affordable housing</a> shortage.</p>
<p>But budgets drafted by the <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/04/27/congress-takes-steps-to-push-budget-deadline-avert-shutdown.html">Trump administration</a> and <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/10/26/560215916/congress-paves-way-for-tax-legislation-by-passing-budget-resolution">Congress</a>, along with provisions in the <a href="http://www.housingfinance.com/policy-legislation/tax-reform-proposal-threatens-affordable-housing-production_o">tax cut package</a>, are bound to <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/blog/without-more-hud-funds-every-state-will-lose-housing-vouchers-in-2018">make matters worse</a>. </p>
<p>As a researcher who studies the intersection of tax law and housing policy, I am concerned about how these proposed changes would reduce the volume of new housing for low-income people and cut aid that people facing economic hardship use to cover their rent.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eV0n7vYbwIk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Rep. Al Green grilled Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson regarding cuts the Trump administration has proposed.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Spending on housing</h2>
<p>The federal government <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41654.pdf">stopped building public housing</a> two decades ago after years of declining construction. Although it has demolished many of these homes, the government continues to own and rent out about <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-public-housing">1.1 million of these units</a>.</p>
<p>Nowadays, the government mostly seeks to help make privately owned and operated housing affordable by providing rental assistance to low-income tenants. The main way it does that is by funding the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/hud.pdf">US$19.3 billion</a> <a href="https://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/public_indian_housing/programs/hcv/about/fact_sheet">Housing Choice Voucher program</a> through which eligible tenants get help paying their rent.</p>
<p>The federal government also subsidizes the construction of privately owned and operated housing units that are officially designated as “affordable.” Private sector developers who build or rehabilitate affordable housing projects do so with the aid of the federal <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/lihtc.html">low-income housing tax credit</a>.</p>
<p>In the U.S., <a href="http://www.forworkingfamilies.org/page/policy-tools-affordable-housing-dictionary">affordable housing</a> is defined as dwellings that cost less than 30 percent of low-income tenants’ income for rent and utilities or the owners’ mortgage, property taxes, homeowners’ insurance and utilities – based on regional median income levels. </p>
<p>The tax credit, which has provided about <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/lihtc.html">$8 billion</a> in subsidies for new affordable housing projects each year, has financed about 3 million new or rehabbed homes <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/lihtc.html">since 1987</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, municipal and state debt governments often issue “<a href="http://www.ipedconference.com/powerpoints/Tax-Exempt_Housing_Bond_Basics.pdf">private activity bonds</a>” to finance low-income housing – as well as student loan programs, hospitals and big infrastructure projects like bridges and highways. Until now, these bonds have been exempt from federal taxes.</p>
<h2>Not enough</h2>
<p>The supply of affordable housing is <a href="http://nlihc.org/article/nlihc-releases-out-reach-2017-national-housing-wage-2121-hour">so low</a> that there is no state, city or county in the country where a full-time minimum wage employee can afford to rent a two-bedroom unit, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, an advocacy group.</p>
<p>And the department of Housing and Urban Development says that the number of low-income families paying more than half their income for rent or living in severely inadequate housing conditions without help from the government is nearing <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/pdf/Worst-Case-Housing-Needs.pdf">record levels</a>.</p>
<p>As of 2015, roughly <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/50782-lowincomehousing-onecolumn.pdf">20 million</a> American households (excluding <a href="https://endhomelessness.org/homelessness-in-america/homelessness-statistics/state-of-homelessness-report/">the homeless</a>) were officially eligible for housing assistance. But nearly 75 percent of them did not get this help because of a lack of funds.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, a new study by Freddie Mac, a government-owned company that buys mortgages from lenders, found that the number of affordable housing units has <a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/multifamily/pdf/rental_affordability_worsening.pdf">plunged</a> over the last 15 years. The study focused on the affordability of rental units in buildings that were both financed by Freddie Mac and refinanced during that same period.</p>
<p>In those buildings, the share of rental units affordable to <a href="http://www.forworkingfamilies.org/page/policy-tools-affordable-housing-dictionary">very low-income</a> renters – people living on an income that is less than half of their area’s median, adjusted for their household size and local economy – dropped from 11.2 percent to 4.3 percent.</p>
<p>Calling the results “striking,” Freddie Mac <a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/multifamily/pdf/rental_affordability_worsening.pdf">speculated</a> that the trend reflected a combination of increasing rents, stagnant incomes and potential changes to housing subsidies. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"923955118277455874"}"></div></p>
<h2>Curbing help</h2>
<p>These housing woes are sure to become more dire. </p>
<p>One reason for this is that the proposed tax-cut package would abolish <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/republicans-want-to-end-muni-bond-sales-by-businesses-stadiums">private activity bonds</a>. These bonds currently help pay for the construction of more than <a href="http://www.housingfinance.com/policy-legislation/tax-reform-proposal-threatens-affordable-housing-production_o">40 percent of new affordable housing units</a>.</p>
<p>Less obviously, current tax reform proposals also stand to reduce the effectiveness of the low-income housing tax credit. While GOP lawmakers are not aiming to end the tax credit as part of their <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Documents/Tax-Framework.pdf">package of tax changes</a>, the <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/finance/345379-gop-debates-deep-cut-to-corporate-tax-rate">low corporate tax rates</a> proposed in the tax bill before Congress would surely reduce the value of the tax credits.</p>
<p>The reason for this grim outlook has to do with the complicated way low-income housing tax credits work.</p>
<p>To spur new affordable housing projects, the tax credits must deliver a meaningful subsidy to housing developers. But developers usually don’t use the tax credits directly. Instead, they sell the right to use the credits to banks and other investors. The investors essentially purchase the tax credits at a discount. The lower the price falls, the less value the developer receives. </p>
<p>The price that investors are paying to use the tax credits <a href="https://www.curbed.com/2017/11/2/16586570/tax-reform-affordable-housing">has already plummeted</a> in anticipation of reduced tax rates, leaving developers unable to secure the funding they need to produce affordable housing. One expert analysis estimates that the proposed tax cuts could lead to <a href="https://www.novoco.com/notes-from-novogradac/tax-reform-bill-would-eliminate-future-supply-nearly-1-million-affordable-rental-housing-units">1 million fewer affordable housing units</a> being produced over the next 10 years – about a third of what is currently produced.</p>
<h2>Simple and stark</h2>
<p>While the budget bills approved by the House and the Senate do not <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/19/hud-budget-cuts-housing-programs-238610">slice $6 billion from HUD’s budget</a>, as the Trump administration tried to do in its spending proposal, they would still leave more American families unable to afford a roof over their heads. </p>
<p>The relatively generous <a href="http://nlihc.org/article/senate-appropriations-committee-approves-fy18-housing-spending-bill">Senate version</a> of the housing line items appears likely to prevail as a way to <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/26/republican-leaders-budget-vote-244198">make way for the tax overhaul</a>. Even so, every state would have <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/blog/without-more-hud-funds-every-state-will-lose-housing-vouchers-in-2018">less money for housing vouchers</a>, according to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a think tank that researches safety net programs. </p>
<p>Perhaps this all sounds technical and complicated. But the outcome for many low-income Americans will be simple and stark.</p>
<p>The proposed tax changes that make it harder to finance new affordable housing units, combined with proposed cuts to tenant voucher programs, will increase the risk of becoming homeless and take a toll on the poor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle D. Layser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Slashing government spending on housing and scrapping a key financing option for new units would make it harder than ever for low-income Americans to keep a roof over their heads.Michelle D. Layser, Research Fellow, Adjunct Professor of Law, Georgetown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/821542017-08-15T20:23:08Z2017-08-15T20:23:08ZMelbourne shows up Sydney in funding the most disadvantaged suburbs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181908/original/file-20170814-28487-nui5ko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While state investment decreases on average with distance from the CBD, Melbourne's neediest suburbs aren't forgotten. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-melbourne-fading-day-night-424829368?src=kz7FcSs73_mwHl2rJmDU8A-1-7">ymgerman from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Residents of neighbourhoods with good infrastructure and services often enjoy lower living costs and better wellbeing and life chances. But access to education, health, transport and other public amenities and services is <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/2176/AHURI_Final_Report_No225_Disadvantaged-places-in-urban-Australia-analysing-socio-economic-diversity-and-housing-market-performance.pdf">unevenly distributed in the city</a>. </p>
<p>Some suburbs are disadvantaged on multiple fronts, and it turns out these areas receive much more state funding in Melbourne than in Sydney.</p>
<p>From a social justice perspective, public funding of infrastructure and services should give priority to the most disadvantaged areas. This “redistribution” is seen as necessary to counter socioeconomic disadvantage and inequality. </p>
<p>In both Sydney and Melbourne, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1745-5871.12245/pdf">our research</a> shows more funding goes to moderately disadvantaged areas, on average, than to more advantaged areas. In Sydney, however, government spending in the <em>most</em> disadvantaged suburbs was very low compared to Melbourne.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181729/original/file-20170811-12395-tqo9ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181729/original/file-20170811-12395-tqo9ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181729/original/file-20170811-12395-tqo9ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181729/original/file-20170811-12395-tqo9ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181729/original/file-20170811-12395-tqo9ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181729/original/file-20170811-12395-tqo9ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181729/original/file-20170811-12395-tqo9ff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Average per capita investment by socioeconomic status of suburb.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Breaking down the funding distribution</h2>
<p><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1745-5871.12245/pdf">Our study</a> sought to understand how state funding is distributed in Melbourne and Sydney. We looked at the <a href="http://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/State-Budget/Previous-budgets">Victorian</a> and <a href="https://www.budget.nsw.gov.au/">New South Wales</a> state budgets from 1999 to 2015 to measure expenditure in different suburbs of both cities. This included transport, roads, health, education, justice, utilities, amenities, government facilities and community services.</p>
<p>In both Sydney and Melbourne we saw an overall redistributive pattern. Moderately disadvantaged areas received more on average than advantaged areas. </p>
<p>However, state investment in Sydney’s <em>most</em> disadvantaged suburbs was very low. In contrast, such areas in Melbourne benefited from relatively high state spending. </p>
<p>In Melbourne’s most socially disadvantaged suburbs, expenditure was higher than the metropolitan average in almost all categories of infrastructure and services. The exceptions were emergency services and amenities. </p>
<p>In Sydney’s most disadvantaged suburbs, expenditure was lower than the metropolitan average in health, justice, roads, amenities, urban development and utilities. Only expenditure on community services and education was above the average. </p>
<p>In both cities, expenditure on public housing development was relatively high in the most disadvantaged suburbs. Government investment in building more affordable housing in well-serviced areas is extremely important. A booming housing market has pushed disadvantaged people, including recently arrived immigrants, <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-to-australia-good-luck-migrants-can-no-longer-afford-gateway-suburbs-75201">away from well-serviced suburbs</a> that were once affordable.</p>
<p>However, in Sydney, new public housing development occurs disproportionately in the most disadvantaged suburbs that also lack good public infrastructure and services. </p>
<h2>Inner city does best</h2>
<p>The disadvantage of Sydney’s poorest suburbs can be attributed, in part, to a highly centralised pattern of government spending. It is disproportionately high in the inner city and progressively declines outwards. </p>
<p>The majority of Sydney’s most disadvantaged suburbs are located well outside the metropolitan centre, and therefore miss out. </p>
<p>Strategic plans for Sydney since 2005 have envisioned a shift towards a less centralised structure. Yet the pattern of infrastructure investment we observed is at odds with such rhetoric. </p>
<p>Most recently, the Greater Sydney Commission has promoted a “metropolis of <a href="https://www.greater.sydney/three-cities">three cities</a>”. The three centres are the CBD, Parramatta and the planned <a href="http://westernsydneyairport.gov.au/">Western Sydney Airport</a> in Badgery’s Creek. The impact of these strategies on infrastructure distribution will need close monitoring.</p>
<p>But, on its own, centralised expenditure does not fully explain why Sydney’s most disadvantaged suburbs miss out. Some of Sydney’s emerging outer suburbs benefited from much higher investment. And in Melbourne, despite a centralised pattern of investment (albeit less extreme than Sydney’s), the most disadvantaged suburbs did benefit from high expenditure.</p>
<p>We need to find other political and social explanations to explain these differences between Melbourne and Sydney. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181909/original/file-20170814-28461-675vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181909/original/file-20170814-28461-675vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181909/original/file-20170814-28461-675vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181909/original/file-20170814-28461-675vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181909/original/file-20170814-28461-675vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181909/original/file-20170814-28461-675vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181909/original/file-20170814-28461-675vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181909/original/file-20170814-28461-675vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most of Sydney’s neediest suburbs are doubly disadvantaged by being far from the city centre and missing out on state funding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-downtown-sydney-sunset-australia-164023496?src=ckht92t2o0TuNqeeEPfYPg-1-12">shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Finding a fairer balance</h2>
<p>Despite the justifications for redistribution to the neediest areas, various political and economic dynamics work against it.</p>
<p>Public investment often favours other areas because these are expected to yield higher economic or <a href="https://theconversation.com/both-parties-to-launch-in-western-sydney-the-symbolic-heartland-of-uncommitted-but-powerful-voters-61017">electoral returns</a>. Better resourced communities can also lobby government more effectively – pushing for or <a href="https://theconversation.com/neighbours-fears-about-affordable-housing-are-worse-than-any-impacts-69291">against</a> facilities in their area, for instance. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, state governments can play a crucial role in reducing social inequalities in Australia’s major cities. In Sydney, infrastructure allocation decisions by successive state governments have failed the most disadvantaged communities. </p>
<p>Public spending on infrastructure and services will have to be redistributed to fix these problems. But simply channelling more funds to disadvantaged suburbs will not be enough. To maximise the transformative impact on such communities, the state must take the needs and wishes of diverse residents into account. </p>
<p>Crucially, this must include more affordable housing. Otherwise, investments in better infrastructure and services may well lead to the displacement of the very people who are meant to benefit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82154/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilan Wiesel receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caitlin Buckle and Fanqi Liu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The neediest suburbs get a much poorer deal in Sydney than in Melbourne. A new study provides a suburb-by-suburb breakdown of state investment, including what facilities and services have been funded.Ilan Wiesel, Lecturer in Urban Geography, The University of MelbourneCaitlin Buckle, PhD Candidate in Human Geography, UNSW SydneyFanqi Liu, PhD Student in Urban Geography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/814462017-08-07T02:23:57Z2017-08-07T02:23:57ZHow affordable housing can chip away at residential segregation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180793/original/file-20170802-23530-5b14m3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A federal housing incentive could have untapped potential.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/small-house-calculator-sitting-on-stack-157353578?src=KP9aoohHJ9Wcs2ZnhFBTgA-1-49">photastic/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the health care debate stalling, Republicans are beginning to make more noise about tax reform. President Donald Trump has promised to make his bid to alter the code his <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/20/tax-reform-battle-could-be-worse-than-health-care-brawl.html">next big battle</a>, as has House Speaker Paul Ryan.</p>
<p>Though the <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS22389.pdf">low-income housing tax credit</a> <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2016/52278">could land on the chopping block</a>, it’s probably safe due to its history of bipartisan support. Along with politicians from both sides of the aisle, developers and many banks and nonprofits embrace it because the tax credit makes creating new affordable housing units financially feasible and less risky. Yet the program, which is the only significant federal subsidy for building affordable housing, could be in jeopardy as lawmakers seek to close tax loopholes and lower tax rates.</p>
<p>As a tax law researcher who has studied where properties built with this tax credit are located, I see good reasons to preserve it. Above all, this program has the untapped potential to help solve the intractable problems of residential segregation by race, ethnicity and class.</p>
<h2>Affordable housing</h2>
<p>Each year, the federal government delivers approximately <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/lihtc.html">US$8 billion</a> in low-income housing tax credits to housing developers that agree to set aside a certain number of units as rent-controlled affordable housing for qualified tenants. Since it began in 1986, the program has helped create at least 45,905 affordable housing projects with <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/lihtc.html">nearly three million units</a>.</p>
<p>Some recent research suggests that the affordable housing properties built with the tax credits <a href="https://web.stanford.edu/%7Ediamondr/LIHTC_spillovers.pdf">help to integrate and revitalize</a> otherwise poverty-stricken neighborhoods.</p>
<p>Notwithstanding these encouraging findings, I still worry that the program may reinforce racial and economic segregation in some cities. For example, affordable housing advocates have voiced concern about the program’s harmful effects on <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/news/dallas/2016/08/31/supreme-court-victory-dallas-nonprofit-loses-racial-bias-suit-texas-agency">neighborhood choice in Dallas</a> and <a href="http://nlihc.org/article/fhjc-report-says-lihtc-unit-locations-reinforce-poverty-concentration-and-segregation-nyc-re">New York City</a>. In my own research about low-income tenants <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2929672">in Philadelphia</a>, I have noted that they have few options to live in low-income housing tax credit projects outside of high-poverty neighborhoods where most residents are people of color.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180794/original/file-20170802-16521-ixgqb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180794/original/file-20170802-16521-ixgqb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180794/original/file-20170802-16521-ixgqb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180794/original/file-20170802-16521-ixgqb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180794/original/file-20170802-16521-ixgqb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180794/original/file-20170802-16521-ixgqb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180794/original/file-20170802-16521-ixgqb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180794/original/file-20170802-16521-ixgqb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This new St. Louis housing development is backed by federal low-income housing tax credits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-Infrastructure/18f02e5c11494ec18ed1000d2d01f63e/1/0">AP Photo/Jeff Roberson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A new mandate</h2>
<p>Here’s one possible explanation for the disagreement. Because there are no geographic restrictions on where affordable housing may go for builders to qualify for the tax credit, and there is no mandate that eligible projects help break up pockets of poverty, its impact inevitably varies. </p>
<p>Instead of leaving outcomes to chance, some <a href="http://nlihc.org/article/prrac-highlights-fair-housing-best-practices-state-lihtc-policies">affordable housing advocates</a> and <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2929672">I are suggesting a solution</a>: Housing authorities – which determine which affordable housing projects will be awarded the tax credits – should approve only properties consistent with new, broader anti-poverty and anti-segregation objectives. </p>
<p>For more than a decade, researchers have noted that affordable housing properties boosted by this tax credit are disproportionately located in low-income neighborhoods. Perhaps for this reason, an important line of research has sought to understand the tax credit’s impact on the communities surrounding new affordable housing projects. Though findings have varied, several researchers have found positive spillover effects.</p>
<p>In a recent report, <a href="https://web.stanford.edu/%7Ediamondr/LIHTC_spillovers.pdf">Rebecca Diamond and Tim McQuade</a> from Stanford’s Graduate School of Business offered new empirical evidence to support the view that the tax-subsidized properties benefit surrounding areas. They found that the projects increased property values, lowered the crime rate and spurred economic and racial integration – as long as the buildings were located in low-income neighborhoods where more than half the population was black or Latino. </p>
<p>The study didn’t detect these benefits, however, for affordable housing located in more affluent, predominantly white areas. Does that mean builders should go out of their way to site projects in low-income neighborhoods? Not necessarily.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180798/original/file-20170802-9082-vr1w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180798/original/file-20170802-9082-vr1w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180798/original/file-20170802-9082-vr1w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180798/original/file-20170802-9082-vr1w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180798/original/file-20170802-9082-vr1w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180798/original/file-20170802-9082-vr1w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180798/original/file-20170802-9082-vr1w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180798/original/file-20170802-9082-vr1w5z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Residential segregation in many U.S. communities has persisted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/several-homes-families-connected-neighborhoods-50580424">iQoncept/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A Philadelphia case study</h2>
<p>Establishing affordable housing in low-income neighborhoods may give surrounding areas a small boost. But doing so exclusively may severely restrict housing options available to low-income tenants, leaving many without opportunities to live in other kinds of places. </p>
<p><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2929672">My own research</a> on siting patterns has focused on Philadelphia, a city with a history of residential housing <a href="http://www.phillymag.com/citified/2015/09/22/philadelphia-segregated-big-city/">segregation that still persists</a>. I found that the number of low-income housing tax credit properties in a Philadelphia ZIP code is strongly correlated with the ZIP code’s <a href="https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/poverty/guidance/poverty-measures.html">poverty rate</a>, or the percentage of residents below the poverty line, which varies according to family size. (Families of four <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-poverty-thresholds.html">earning less than $24,755</a>, for example, fall into this category.)</p>
<p>My findings suggest that the projects have been – intentionally or not – clustered in low-income neighborhoods. In fact, 40 percent of Philadelphia’s 465 low-income housing tax credit properties built or rehabilitated since 1987 were located in just five low-income ZIP codes.</p>
<p>Since my study didn’t look at neighborhood change, I can’t say with certainty whether siting 184 low-income housing tax credit projects in those five ZIP codes has increased the racial and economic diversity of those neighborhoods over the past few decades. I don’t know whether the neighborhood homeowners benefited from having 30 or more low-income housing tax credit properties down the street.</p>
<p>What I can say is that the average poverty rate in those five ZIP codes was still 43 percent in 2015 (the city average is <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/cf/1.0/en/county/Philadelphia%20County,%20Pennsylvania/POVERTY/BLW_LVL_PCT">26 percent</a>), and 83 percent of the residents were nonwhite, compared with <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/ACS/15_5YR/DP05/0500000US42101">58.3 percent</a> of all Philadelphia residents. Meanwhile, most of these low-income housing tax credit properties are zoned for highly segregated public schools.</p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p><iframe id="iNVxz" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iNVxz/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p></p><hr>
These are troubling statistics, given <a href="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/S/bo14365260.html">recent findings</a> by New York University sociologist Patrick Sharkey that children who live in high-poverty, racially segregated neighborhoods are more likely to be even poorer than their parents when they grow up. This effect takes a toll on the generation of children living there and the next generation.<p></p>
<h2>Mixed-income properties</h2>
<p>Given the risks tied to living in overwhelmingly segregated neighborhoods, housing policies should encourage builders to construct affordable housing in more affluent areas. </p>
<p>Though the tax code calls for a larger tax credit for projects located in certain <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/qct.html">high-poverty census tracts</a>, it lacks geographic restrictions or guidance on where they should go. In other words, the federal tax law is designed to increase the supply of affordable housing without saying where to put it.</p>
<p>Without siting mandates, the tax credit is relatively flexible and could, at least theoretically, help make poverty less concentrated. One possibility is to draw higher-income tenants to low-income neighborhoods through low-income housing tax credit-financed mixed-income housing.</p>
<p>The tax law allows for mixed-income projects, but Yale Law professor Robert Ellickson has noted that more than 80 percent of low-income housing tax credit properties are <a href="http://www.uclalawreview.org/pdf/57-4-3.pdf">exclusively low-income</a>. For the tax program to support a mixed-income strategy, developers would have to reserve fewer units for poor tenants. And that change that might undermine the program’s primary goal.</p>
<h2>Housing vouchers</h2>
<p>For this reason and others, policymakers should instead look to the program’s potential to aid other housing programs. For instance the <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/50782-lowincomehousing-onecolumn.pdf">$18 billion</a>-per-year Housing Choice Voucher program is designed to give low-income renters choices about where they will live – including places where poverty is less concentrated than where they currently reside.</p>
<p>This program gives low-income tenants vouchers to help pay their rent. They agree to spend up to 30 percent of their income on rent, state housing authorities pick up the rest of the tab, and the federal government reimburses the states for that expense.</p>
<p>Many landlords won’t accept vouchers, sometimes because they worry that low-income tenants won’t pay their rent. Even the landlords who take vouchers can get skittish over compliance and inspection requirements.</p>
<p>But landlords renting out affordable housing units built through the low-income housing tax credit program aren’t allowed to refuse to lease to tenants merely because they plan to use vouchers. Disproportionately siting projects in poor neighborhoods may limit the tax law’s capacity to make the most out of this federal program.</p>
<p>In contrast, encouraging builders to place affordable housing in more affluent neighborhoods with this tax credit may give low-income renters more housing location options. For parents facing economic hardship, the ability to move to an affluent neighborhood may make it more likely that their kids will grow up to be better off.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81446/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle D. Layser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With some tinkering, a federal tax credit that encourages developers to create new units that low-income Americans can afford to rent might yield other benefits.Michelle D. Layser, Research Fellow, Adjunct Professor of Law, Georgetown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/813672017-08-01T00:17:35Z2017-08-01T00:17:35ZWelfare as we know it now: 6 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179898/original/file-20170726-28585-6xhxyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When President Bill Cllinton officially ended welfare as we knew it, he was flanked by women who had received Aid to Families with Dependent Children.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&VBID=2C0BXZNAYW76Z&SMLS=1&RW=1195&RH=684&POPUPPN=36&POPUPIID=2C0408YJW9N">Reuters/Stephen Jaffee</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: President Donald Trump’s proposed budget would slice <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-budget-benefits-cuts/?utm_term=.6fe8a036bc8a">US$21.7 billion over a decade, or 13.1 percent</a>, from Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) – what’s left of basic welfare for families facing economic hardship. To justify this cut and an across-the-board reduction in <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/budget.pdf">antipoverty spending</a>, he argued, “We must reform our welfare system so that it does not discourage able-bodied adults from working, which takes away scarce resources from those in real need.”</em> </p>
<p><em>But, as political scientist Laura Hussey explains, that’s already the case. Today’s welfare system is short-term and reserved mainly for children.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is TANF?</h2>
<p>TANF provides cash assistance and other services to children and their parents or guardians who can work and are extremely poor. States, sometimes through local governments, administer the program and help fund it.</p>
<p>It replaced the welfare program known first as Aid to Dependent Children and later renamed Aid to Families with Dependent Children. In 1996, President Bill Clinton and the Republican-led Congress <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/104th-congress/house-bill/3734/text">overhauled the welfare system</a>, creating TANF. This modern welfare system’s main goals boil down to:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Help families in need care for their own children.</p></li>
<li><p>Get families off welfare quickly, especially through paid work.</p></li>
<li><p>Encourage marriage and two-parent families while discouraging unmarried and teen pregnancy.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Fulfilling Clinton’s campaign promise to “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/book/ending-welfare-as-we-know-it/">end welfare as we know it</a>,” the law tied time limits and other, sometimes intrusive, mandates to cash grants. Among other changes, it converted the federal program into a block grant model, letting states use these dollars how they wanted. It converted this antipoverty program into aid contingent on efforts to <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pam.21880/full">enter or reenter the workforce</a> through new job requirements. In 2012, the most recent year for which comprehensive data are available, more than 42 percent of TANF families included <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/system/files/pdf/116161/FINAL%20Fourteenth%20Report%20-%20FINAL%209%2022%2015.pdf">an employed household member</a>.</p>
<h2>2. How many Americans get TANF benefits?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/family-income-support/tanf-reaching-few-poor-families">1.5 million American families</a> who obtained TANF benefits in a typical month in 2015 represent roughly 23 percent of those experiencing poverty. In contrast, AFDC, the precursor program, supported 4.7 million families in 1995 – 76 percent of the nation’s poor families. </p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p><iframe id="GaCfi" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GaCfi/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p><iframe id="Yaoyj" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Yaoyj/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<h2>3. Who gets TANF benefits?</h2>
<p>More than three out of four of the people who get these benefits are children. For a <a href="http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/1504/">growing share</a> of TANF “families” – nearly half in 2015 – <a href="https://www.acf.hhs.gov/ofa/resource/characteristics-and-financial-circumstances-of-tanf-recipients-fiscal-year-2015">the only beneficiaries are minors</a>. </p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p><iframe id="uEpzf" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uEpzf/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p>Most of these children who are the only people in a household getting benefits either reside with guardians or have parents who are aren’t eligible themselves. Ineligible parents who live in poverty might be immigrants, people who receive disability-related assistance or adults who would qualify if they hadn’t broken TANF rules, such as failing to fully comply with a work requirement or submit required paperwork.</p>
<p>In those cases, families keep receiving the children’s part of the grant. This reflects a reluctance by policymakers to punish kids for their parents’ status or behavior.</p>
<h2>4. How long do people get these benefits?</h2>
<p>Most TANF recipients get benefits for short periods of time. From 2008 to 2011, as the Great Recession ended, most of them were out of the program within four months or less. The vast majority of Americans who got TANF benefits from 1999 to 2008 received it for no more than <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/system/files/pdf/116161/FINAL%20Fourteenth%20Report%20-%20FINAL%209%2022%2015.pdf">two of those years</a>, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. </p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p><iframe id="2rFyz" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2rFyz/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p>The federal government cuts off TANF benefits for families with an adult recipient after a total of 60 months. States may set their own ceiling below five years if they want or make an exception to this lifetime limit for up to 20 percent of their TANF cases, based on exceptional hardship. They can also use their own money to continue cash benefits for families that hit that five-year quota, which applies to adults but not children.</p>
<h2>5. How does the program vary across the country?</h2>
<p>TANF cash grants averaged $442 per family <a href="https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/opre/2015_welfare_rules_databook_final_09_26_16_b508.pdf">as of July 2015</a>. The maximum monthly grant available to households with one adult and two children ranged from a low of $170 in Mississippi to a maximum of $923 in Alaska.</p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p><iframe id="LmuQY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LmuQY/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<h2>6. What does TANF fund?</h2>
<p>After two decades under the block grant model that gives states discretion over how to spend TANF dollars, cash grants typically consume only a <a href="https://www.acf.hhs.gov/ofa/resource/tanf-financial-data-fy-2015">small share of this money</a>.</p>
<p>States may spend federal TANF funds on other activities serving its official purposes, as well as such things as foster care, juvenile justice and what the government calls “emergency assistance” – goods or services that help meet children’s basic needs amid short-term hardships. </p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p><iframe id="5B1Lh" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5B1Lh/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p>States spent on average about a quarter of federal TANF funds on “basic assistance” – mostly as cash grants – in 2015 and 16 percent on child care. Another 10 percent funded “work, education and training activities,” including subsidies to employers that hire people enrolled in the program and services designed to help them get jobs. “Work supports,” benefits that cover expenses such as transportation to job interviews, uniforms and occupational licensing, averaged 2.5 percent of TANF funds. </p>
<p>The remaining fifth of federal TANF dollars funded an array of efforts to promote two-parent families, reduce domestic violence and topple what the government says are “barriers” to work and self-sufficiency, like substance abuse counseling. Not all of this money helps the poor. Michigan spends some of its federal welfare dollars, for example, on college scholarships for <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2016/06/09/wealth-poverty/how-welfare-money-funds-college-scholarships">high-income families</a>.</p>
<p>Despite not covering most U.S. families living in poverty, the states ended the year with $1.4 billion in committed but unspent federal TANF funds, plus $2.3 billion more that they are saving for future years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81367/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Antkowiak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump’s rationale for cutting the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families program rests on a myth at odds with contemporary data.Laura Antkowiak, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/797102017-06-26T01:08:03Z2017-06-26T01:08:03ZThe Trump team’s poor arguments for slashing SNAP<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174996/original/file-20170621-30227-1fsxuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">SNAP helps millions of Americans get food on their tables.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/family-breakfast-children-eating-together-575014342">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Trump administration aims to slash spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps, by <a href="http://m.startribune.com/republicans-already-giving-trump-s-budget-a-cold-shoulder/423439583/">US$193 billion over the next decade</a>. The proposal would also overhaul how the nation’s main nutrition assistance program operates, potentially encouraging additional cuts by the states.</p>
<p>Curbing SNAP’s reach is only one way that Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney and other officials are trying to trim the <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/the-trump-budgets-massive-cuts-to-state-and-local-services-and">safety net</a> to <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/video/mulvaney-on-trump-s-budget-plan-it-is-a-taxpayer-first-budget-951433283665">save taxpayer dollars</a> – while simultaneously <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/16/politics/donald-trump-defense-budget-blueprint/index.html">boosting military spending</a>.</p>
<p>As an economist who studies nutrition policy, I don’t understand what good the administration thinks it can do by overhauling and paring back an effective and efficient program. By many measures, SNAP successfully satisfies an essential human need and fulfills its mandate to <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/PL_88-525.pdf">promote the general welfare</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174999/original/file-20170621-9586-olq4qo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174999/original/file-20170621-9586-olq4qo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174999/original/file-20170621-9586-olq4qo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174999/original/file-20170621-9586-olq4qo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174999/original/file-20170621-9586-olq4qo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174999/original/file-20170621-9586-olq4qo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174999/original/file-20170621-9586-olq4qo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174999/original/file-20170621-9586-olq4qo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most economists find the SNAP program to be an efficient way to increase food security.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Faster-Food-Stamps/cb234d5d00184abf93214b3e6e7a76a2/1/0">AP Photo/Seth Wenig</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Some fact-checking</h2>
<p>To justify the SNAP cuts, Mulvaney argued that the government wastes money on aiding “<a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2017/05/24/529831472/trump-wants-families-on-food-stamps-to-get-jobs-the-majority-already-work">able-bodied</a>” people who ought to earn enough money to provide for themselves.</p>
<p>But nearly <a href="https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/ops/Characteristics2015-Summary.pdf">two-thirds of SNAP participants</a> are children, elderly or disabled and thus are not expected to work. What’s more, 44 percent of the Americans who rely on SNAP benefits live in a household with at least one worker. Among SNAP households with children, 55 percent include at least one employed person. Furthermore, when able-bodied adults who aren’t caring for a dependent qualify for SNAP benefits, they <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/snap/ABAWDS-1-2016.pdf">lose them within three months</a> if they aren’t working at least 20 hours a week.</p>
<p>What about saving tax dollars? SNAP uses little federal money. The U.S. is currently <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/pd/SNAPsummary.pdf">spending around $71 billion</a> a year on the program. While this sounds like a lot, it accounts for only <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/aug/17/facebook-posts/pie-chart-federal-spending-circulating-internet-mi/">around 2 percent of this year’s federal budget</a>. The cuts proposed for the next 10 years would scale the program back by more than a quarter, but even eliminating it entirely would barely make a dent in federal spending. </p>
<p>As for government inefficiency and waste, research indicates that SNAP’s <a href="https://www.irp.wisc.edu/publications/media/webinars/2015/Dec2-2-2015-Webinar-SNAP.pdf">benefits go where they are intended</a>: to the poor. There are inevitable errors in all government programs that mean some people get paid who shouldn’t, and others who should get paid don’t. But the “<a href="http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/snap/2013-rates.pdf">error rate</a>” for SNAP, at about 3 percent, is <a href="https://paymentaccuracy.gov/high-priority-programs/">much lower</a> than for Medicaid, Medicare, Unemployment Insurance and most other large-scale government programs. “<a href="http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/Trafficking2009.pdf">Illegal trafficking</a>,” when SNAP recipients sell their benefits for a reduced amount of cash to food retailers, amounts to only about 1 percent of the program’s total benefits, according to the USDA. </p>
<p>In short, SNAP is an efficient and effective program that helps millions of vulnerable Americans.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174793/original/file-20170620-29242-4ynrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The states currently don’t have to fund SNAP benefits, but they do cover some of the program’s administrative costs and issue the cards beneficiaries use to redeem these benefits from retailers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://snaped.fns.usda.gov/ebt-cards-several-states">USDA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Changing SNAP’s structure</h2>
<p>To accomplish the SNAP spending reductions, the Trump administration proposes dramatic structural changes, morphing SNAP from a federal program into a federal-state arrangement. Currently the federal government establishes basic eligibility and benefit level standards, but states have some power to alter them. The federal government funds 100 percent of SNAP benefits and shares administration costs with the states.</p>
<p>Under the new proposal, states would be able to change benefit and eligibility standards more. This means SNAP would no longer assure consistent levels of food assistance nationwide. </p>
<p>Of particular importance, the proposal would <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/presidents-budget-would-shift-substantial-costs-to-states-and-cut-food">shift some of the responsibility for funding</a> SNAP benefits to states, requiring them to shoulder 25 percent of the cost. Faced with this substantial new obligation and the requirement to balance their budgets, states would have an incentive to cut SNAP benefits even more.</p>
<p>In addition, the White House wants to cut back on <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/waivers-add-key-state-flexibility-to-snaps-three-month-time-limit">waivers granted to states</a> experiencing high unemployment. These waivers allow childless, able-bodied adults who have worked less than 20 hours per week to receive SNAP benefits beyond the current three-month limit. </p>
<h2>What economists say</h2>
<p>Economists generally regard SNAP as successful and efficient. It reduces <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.2012.682828">food insecurity</a>, poverty rates and <a href="http://www.irp.wisc.edu/publications/media/webinars/2015/Dec2-2-2015-Webinar-SNAP.pdf">economic hardship</a>. It also solves other problems indirectly.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/34/11/1830.abstract">food insecurity increases the risk of many ailments</a>. Children who don’t get enough to eat are more likely to have anemia, asthma, cognitive problems and behavioral problems. Food-insecure working-age adults report more hypertension and sleeping problems. Seniors who don’t get appropriate nutrition are more likely to experience depression and lose the ability to do basic tasks, such as housework, for themselves. Food assistance for pregnant women is associated with <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w18535">reduced obesity, hypertension and diabetes</a> for their children years after they’re born.</p>
<p>Cutting SNAP, therefore, would probably increase health problems among low-income Americans, and the harm to children can be long-lasting. This doesn’t bode well for national health care costs or for low-income Americans’ ability to support themselves now or in the years to come.</p>
<p>Because of SNAP’s income-based eligibility requirements, its caseloads track the unemployment and poverty rates. For example, the number of Americans qualifying for the program rose considerably during the Great Recession, but now that labor markets are recovering the caseload is <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/pd/SNAPsummary.pdf">declining</a>.</p>
<p>And since SNAP automatically responds to the business cycle, it serves what economists call a countercyclical role. That means the program stimulates local economies and the national economy during economic downturns. Economists estimate that each $5 the government spends on <a href="http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=44749">SNAP triggers $9 of economic activity</a> and that every $1 billion in benefits creates roughly 9,000 jobs.</p>
<p>The upshot is that if Congress approves the proposed changes, lots of people would have less to spend on food and thousands of Americans would lose their jobs – mostly people who work in food sales and farming. All Americans could eventually be harmed because the economy as a whole would be more vulnerable during the next downturn.</p>
<h2>Work ethics</h2>
<p>Some conservatives fear that SNAP may discourage work, but <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/research/the-relationship-between-snap-and-work-among-low-income-households?fa=view&id=3894">research</a> indicates that SNAP benefits do little to discourage paid work. Most of the nondisabled, working-age adults who get these benefits – <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/research/the-relationship-between-snap-and-work-among-low-income-households">58 percent – work</a>, and even more – 80 percent – are employed the year prior or following receipt. Given that SNAP benefits average <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/research/a-quick-guide-to-snap-eligibility-and-benefits">just $1.40 per meal per person</a>, they offer a meager incentive to remain unemployed.</p>
<p>Most voters do not seem to share these concerns, as SNAP enjoys broad-based support. <a href="http://www.publicconsultation.org/federal-budget/americans-support-greater-federal-efforts-to-reduce-poverty/">One poll</a> found that about 80 percent of respondents – including about two-thirds of Republicans – favored raising <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/research/a-quick-guide-to-snap-eligibility-and-benefits">benefit levels</a> after being told that someone living alone receives an average of $140 a month and a single mother with one child gets just $253.</p>
<p><a href="http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2013/10/public-opinion-about-food-stamp-program.html">Another poll</a> found that 61 percent opposed cutting SNAP by $39 billion over a decade – as <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/in-plain-sight/house-gop-votes-cut-39-billion-food-stamp-program-f4B11200650">Republican lawmakers tried and failed to do in 2013</a>. The $193 billion cut President Donald Trump seeks would be much bigger.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.vox.com/2017/2/27/14751872/budget-process-explained">Trump’s proposal only begins</a> the long process of building the budget. Hopefully, Congress will reject these cuts to SNAP.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79710/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patricia Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cutting the program formerly known as food stamps would hurt low-income Americans and the whole economy. As research indicates that it’s working well, this drive to defund is baffling experts.Patricia Smith, Professor of Economics, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/781712017-06-07T01:32:33Z2017-06-07T01:32:33ZHow Trump’s global health budget endangers Americans<p>Pandemics – global outbreaks of infectious diseases like the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3004067/">1918 influenza</a> that killed 40 million people and the 2009 <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001558">H1N1 virus</a>, which caused up to 203,000 fatalities – are among the greatest threats the world faces. But the Trump administration wants <a href="http://kff.org/news-summary/white-house-releases-fy18-budget-request/">to cut more than US$2 billion</a> in global health funding.</p>
<p>As experts with diverse research and government experience, we argue that the U.S. must invest more in pandemic preparedness and on preventing outbreaks wherever they occur. The <a href="https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/271013.pdf">26 percent</a> reduction in these funds that President Donald Trump seeks would, we believe, devastate our already underequipped pandemic prevention and response system. In turn, that would undercut our ability to respond to future outbreaks.</p>
<p>We recommended in our recent <a href="http://bush.tamu.edu/scowcroft/white-papers/The-Growing-Threat-of-Pandemics.pdf">white paper</a> that the U.S. centralize its leadership on biodefense – that is, its response to biological threats from naturally occurring emerging and reemerging infectious diseases, accidental releases or attacks. In addition, local authorities and community leaders should do more to counter the anti-vaccine movement, and the federal government should redouble its efforts to strengthen public health institutions in developing countries.</p>
<h2>Strengthening global health</h2>
<p>The best way to protect Americans at home from infectious disease is to contain outbreaks before they get here. </p>
<p>The U.S. did that, barely, with <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/united-states-imported-case.html">Ebola between 2014 and 2016</a>. That outbreak caused a humanitarian disaster in West Africa and brought about a significant scare in the U.S. without ever truly endangering the American public. The few cases that did occur in the United States were contained rapidly, preventing any sort of outbreak on American soil.</p>
<p>According to former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Tom Frieden, the world was merely <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/01/16/outgoing-cdc-chief-talks-about-the-agencys-successes-and-his-greatest-fear/">days away from a global catastrophe</a> when the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28755033">Ebola virus</a> was finally contained in Lagos, Nigeria. Previous <a href="http://kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-government-and-global-polio-efforts/">global health spending</a> facilitated the rapid Nigerian response.</p>
<h2>Centralizing biodefense leadership</h2>
<p>Currently, there is no unifying force that coordinates all the government departments and agencies that work together in biodefense. The U.S. needs a new national strategy to fight pandemics with centralized leadership, and the Trump administration has an opportunity to address this gap that has eluded past administrations. </p>
<p>We strongly agree with the recommendation of the 2015 <a href="http://www.biodefensestudy.org">Biodefense Blue Ribbon Panel</a> report, authored by a bipartisan group of leaders, that the vice president oversee and hold accountable almost a dozen departments with biodefense responsibilities and competing interests. The vice president is one of the only people in the White House who can coordinate across the federal government and influence state and local officials and the private sector.</p>
<p>In addition, we suggest that the <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/who-we-are/organization/bureaus/bureau-democracy-conflict-and-humanitarian-assistance/office-us">Office of Disaster Assistance</a>, an office within the U.S. Agency for International Development currently tasked with coordinating the federal response to natural and man-made disasters abroad, coordinate and lead U.S. responses to foreign pandemics. This role would be similar to the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-response-framework">Federal Emergency Management Agency</a> – which coordinates government, state, local, private sector and nonprofit efforts during and after domestic disasters.</p>
<h2>Countering the anti-vaccine movement</h2>
<p>The anti-vaccine movement has hindered public health campaigns ever since the English physician and scientist Edward Jenner discovered a way to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3720046/">vaccinate against smallpox in 1796</a>. </p>
<p>Fueled by debunked myths connecting autism and the measles, mumps and rubella <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3136032/">(MMR) vaccine</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-us-vaccine-rates-going-down-because-public-trust-and-social-ties-are-eroding-44349">anti-vaccine movement</a> has gained traction in recent years. In some areas, such as San Juan County in Washington state, as many as <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1113008#t=article">72 percent</a> of kindergartners are not getting the vaccines doctors recommend due to noncompliance or exemptions.</p>
<p>Vaccines safeguard public health through what epidemiologists call herd immunity: Diseases don’t spread when enough people in a community get vaccinated. When everyone who can be vaccinated gets their shots, they protect not only themselves but also others who cannot get shots, such as people with medical conditions that make it impossible for them to be vaccinated. For the MMR vaccine, vaccination rates must be <a href="http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2203906">96-99 percent</a> to be effective. In short, parents who refuse to vaccinate their kids endanger other children as well as their own.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171887/original/file-20170601-25673-13son4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171887/original/file-20170601-25673-13son4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171887/original/file-20170601-25673-13son4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171887/original/file-20170601-25673-13son4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171887/original/file-20170601-25673-13son4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171887/original/file-20170601-25673-13son4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171887/original/file-20170601-25673-13son4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171887/original/file-20170601-25673-13son4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Amish families in Ohio were among the people who sought out measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccinations in 2014 amid a big measles outbreak.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Public-Health-and-Contagions/3f098058727d4f6cb8a451f950578e03/5/0">AP Photo/Tom E. Puskar</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Consider what happened when the anti-vaccine movement <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/08/health/measles-minnesota-somali-anti-vaccine-bn/">directly targeted</a> Somali immigrants in Minnesota: Vaccination rates in that community declined from <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-05-18/minnesota-measles-outbreak-exposes-gaps-public-health">90 percent in 2008</a> to 40 percent in 2017. As a result, a measles outbreak is flaring there. Most of the 75 people <a href="http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/idepc/diseases/measles/#Example1">diagnosed with measles</a> in the state so far are Somali-American children. This outbreak, currently concentrated in Hennepin County, illustrates why we believe states should restrict nonmedical exemptions to the childhood vaccination rules guiding public school admissions. </p>
<p>One of the things that global health aid pays for is childhood immunizations in poor countries. Widespread vaccination protects local populations from infectious diseases while reducing the chances that outbreaks will spread to the U.S. </p>
<h2>Trump’s budget</h2>
<p>Because curbing the spread of infectious diseases overseas is so important, we argue that the U.S. should spend more – not less – on global health security and basic public health in low-income countries. Many nations, like Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, need facilities and supplies to prevent the spread of disease, along with trained medical personnel. The U.S. is spending roughly $8.5 billion in global health programs for everything from HIV/AIDS to Zika. Trump’s proposed budget would slash total investment in global health by about a fourth, to <a href="https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/271013.pdf">$6.5 billion</a>.</p>
<p>His budget request would also reduce the amount of money allocated for programs focused on infectious diseases like <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/05/25/529873431/trumps-proposed-budget-would-cut-2-2-billion-from-global-health-spending">HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis</a>.</p>
<p>Seemingly contradicting Trump’s spending priorities, <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2017/05/22/secretary-price-delivers-address-at-70th-world-health-assembly.html">Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price voiced</a> strong U.S. support for global health security at the 70th World Health Assembly in late May. “These threats do not respect borders between countries, and can spread rapidly to endanger people anywhere around the globe,” he said.</p>
<p>To be sure, Trump’s proposed budget, does call for a new, emergency response fund <a href="https://insidehealthpolicy.com/daily-news/trump-calls-new-public-health-emergency-response-fund">to battle disease outbreaks</a>. While necessary, that innovation would not bridge the gap created by the lack of a national biodefense strategy. </p>
<p>And at least some lawmakers champion global health aid, suggesting that Congress may reject Trump’s proposed cuts. International health agencies “are the front lines of defense for the American people for some pretty awful things,” said <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-trump-administration-is-ill-prepared-for-a-global-pandemic/2017/04/08/59605bc6-1a49-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html?utm_term=.15099cb39ae9">Representative Tom Cole</a>, an Oklahoma Republican. “If the idea of a government is to protect the United States and its people, then these people contribute as much as another wing on an F-35 (fighter jet), and actually do more to save tens of thousands of lives.”</p>
<p>Shortchanging efforts to prevent pandemics will increase their threat worldwide. It will also make Americans less safe no matter where those outbreaks start.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78171/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Natsios sits on the board of directors (and own shares) of a company (FIO Corporation) which makes an infectious disease diagnostic device which was used, with Gates Foundation funding, to track the spread of the Ebola Pandemic West Africa. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christine Crudo Blackburn and Gerald W Parker do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Trump wants to slash global health funding at a time when more investment is needed, not less. This spending can protect Americans – as well as foreigners – from deadly diseases.Gerald W Parker, Director, Pandemic and Biosecurity Policy Program, Scowcroft Institute for International Affairs, Bush School of Government and Public Service, and Associate Dean for Global One Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, Texas A&M UniversityAndrew Natsios, Director, Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs and Executive Professor, Texas A&M UniversityChristine Crudo Blackburn, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs, Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/783252017-06-06T00:11:45Z2017-06-06T00:11:45ZTrump’s push for self-sufficiency misses the point of safety net programs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171877/original/file-20170601-23531-ba6vgd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Trump administration wants to shrink the safety net.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hammock-net-91331678?src=RAPYxEsAV_B9dzo1tht0nw-1-0">www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Here’s how Office of Management and Budget Director <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/05/23/529654114/medical-research-health-care-face-deep-cuts-in-trump-budget">Mick Mulvaney</a> has tried to justify the Trump administration’s bid to cut or scrap many safety net programs: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“We are no longer going to measure compassion by the number of programs or the number of people on those programs. We are going to measure compassion and success by the number of people we get off of those programs to get back in charge of their own lives.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other words, Mulvaney is arguing that the main criterion for a program’s success should be whether it leads to self-sufficiency. But as researchers who have studied ways to evaluate social services, we don’t think this metric makes sense in this case.</p>
<h2>Evaluating government programs</h2>
<p>Determining whether a government program works involves looking at its goals and whom it’s supposed to help.</p>
<p>Congress created and has sustained a safety net to help people meet basic needs and reduce poverty, and these are its goals. Many of the people who benefit from it are already working or cannot work because of a disability.</p>
<p>In short, government-provided social services and benefits are often not simply handouts on the road to a job that will pay the bills for Americans temporarily facing hard times. They also make it possible for the working poor, the disabled, the elderly and children living in poverty to get the food, shelter and medical care they need to survive. </p>
<p>The proposed cuts are surprising because many of these programs enjoy widespread <a href="http://www.publicconsultation.org/federal-budget/americans-support-greater-federal-efforts-to-reduce-poverty/">bipartisan support</a>, according to polling by the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation.</p>
<h2>Energy and food aid</h2>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"824440456813707265"}"></div></p>
<p>Our research involves looking at how funders and providers of social programs assess the work they do. </p>
<p>In one study, <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2753/PMR1530-9576360101">we surveyed</a> 145 funders and providers. The average respondent told us that the most important reason they assess outcomes is to see if their programs are accomplishing their goals. Based on follow-up interviews with a subset of this group, we learned that their goals varied depending on the purpose of the program. For example, early childhood education programs can measure the academic achievement of the kids who benefit from it a few years later, and teen pregnancy prevention programs may assess success based on how many participants get pregnant before adulthood. </p>
<p>If you apply this basic standard to the programs the Trump administration seeks to cut, the evidence indicates safety net programs are meeting their goals. </p>
<p>Take the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), established by Congress in 1981, which helps poor Americans <a href="https://www.acf.hhs.gov/ocs/resource/liheap-fact-sheet-0">pay their utility bills</a>. That program, which the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/23/politics/trump-budget-cuts-programs/">Trump administration wants to eliminate</a>, targets the elderly, disabled and households with young children. By helping to keep the heat on when it’s cold out so <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr076.pdf">no one in a household freezes</a> and the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/22/us/heat-wave-deaths/">air conditioning humming</a> during heat waves, it’s clearly aimed at meeting basic needs.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254384671_The_Impact_of_Low_Income_Home_Energy_Assistance_Program_LIHEAP_Participation_on_Household_Energy_Insecurity">Research about its effectiveness</a>, including a study by Anthony Murray of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Bradford Mills of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, shows that the program works. They note that LIHEAP significantly reduces energy insecurity – a measure of whether people have enough home energy to meet their basic needs. Eliminating the program would increase energy insecurity among low-income Americans by 18 percent, they calculated.</p>
<p>The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), popularly known as <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap">food stamps</a>, is another safety net program <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/22/15676490/trump-budget-2018-explained">on the chopping block</a> that appears to be working well. <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap">The program’s explicit purpose</a> is reducing hunger, and research indicates that it achieves this goal. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172274/original/file-20170605-16849-1l2y4cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172274/original/file-20170605-16849-1l2y4cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172274/original/file-20170605-16849-1l2y4cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172274/original/file-20170605-16849-1l2y4cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172274/original/file-20170605-16849-1l2y4cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172274/original/file-20170605-16849-1l2y4cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172274/original/file-20170605-16849-1l2y4cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172274/original/file-20170605-16849-1l2y4cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proposed cuts may mean fewer Americans will be able to rely on food stamps to feed their families.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/4622011485/in/photolist-83r1Zc-q8gmPM-r94mxE-qtCeJw-bxnQUb-a184Ek-rt2hAZ-bj1BRX-8mVaJg-bjaasp-rquZ1V-rMeqM5-bb37K4-mwDGaZ-bb3f8k-rqwytA-ctzxPw-rwCrj5-rqBQra-azzmjq-8gQJCF-9C2DeJ-8pb4m4-8oTq4n-9AuekN-dQuN5i-biHLUM-qSp1K2-aRqnK8-83u8hU-qtQpVZ-qSp882-83r1VD-biCuDr-qtCftC-ctzBVm-rMeu4q-rK43ky-rPwsaD-ojJcpe-92mkgP-rwWj7w-92mkiV-9Aueu3-8e2scr-92prRb-9AriUP-pRxQEd-8wZXVL-rwXDxA">U.S. Department of Agriculture/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article-abstract/93/4/1082/203719/How-Much-Does-the-Supplemental-Nutrition">One recent study</a> from The Urban Institute, a think tank that researches government policies, found that getting food stamps reduced the chance that eligible Americans would would go hungry by approximately 30 percent. Analysis by the <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/5-6-15pov.pdf">Center for Budget and Policy Priorities</a>, another think tank that evaluates government policies, found that food stamps kept or lifted 10.3 million Americans out of poverty – an additional sign it is an effective piece of the safety net. </p>
<p>Yet, Trump’s reductions would <a href="http://m.startribune.com/republicans-already-giving-trump-s-budget-a-cold-shoulder/423439583/">cut federal spending</a> on food stamps by US$193 billion – more than a 25 percent reduction – over 10 years.</p>
<p>Other safety net programs are also at risk. The proposed federal budget would <a href="http://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/Trump-Budget.pdf">decrease housing assistance</a> for 250,000 people, <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/blog/trump-budget-would-increase-homelessness-and-hardship-in-every-state-end-federal-role-in">cut $1.8 billion</a> from public housing and <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/23/politics/trump-budget-cuts-programs/">eliminate after-school programs</a> serving the poorest members of our society. In addition, it would add to the House-approved health care bill’s <a href="https://www.childrenshospitals.org/Newsroom/Press-Releases/2017/CBO-Score-Confirms-$834-Billion-AHCA-Cut-to-Medicaid">$834 billion in Medicaid cuts</a> by taking another <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-the-cbo-score-how-trump-budget-and-the-ahca-are-dismantling-americas-safety-net-78308">$610 billion from the program</a> over a decade, further reducing health insurance coverage for low-income and disabled Americans.</p>
<p>In short, the Trump budget conveys skepticism about the idea of even having a safety net.</p>
<h2>Mulvaney’s standard</h2>
<p>Self-sufficiency is certainly an appropriate way to measure the success for some social programs, such as job-training initiatives – which Trump’s budget request would <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/24/news/economy/trump-budget-job-training-programs/">slash by 40 percent</a> despite the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/03/17/remarks-president-trump-roundtable-discussion-vocational-training-us-and">president’s own explicit support</a> for vocational training. But does Mulvaney’s view that a declining number of beneficiaries should be the primary indicator of success for every program designed to meet basic human needs make sense? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172275/original/file-20170605-16877-149w8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172275/original/file-20170605-16877-149w8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172275/original/file-20170605-16877-149w8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172275/original/file-20170605-16877-149w8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172275/original/file-20170605-16877-149w8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172275/original/file-20170605-16877-149w8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172275/original/file-20170605-16877-149w8uh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Safety net programs have been jeopardized before. In 2011, protesters gathered in Illinois to object to budget cuts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/peoplesworld/5495785210/in/photolist-zEWpG3-zEWPsE-AkndUj-zEWqLY-AkmbP9-AALr4A-AALbEL-AALgSE-AzEicL-ACXy7P-zF4Tda-AknkRW-zEW8Dm-AzFeSh-zEVNdh-zEVM5q-AkmhzN-Aknjrb-zEWooG-ABY8r4-Akncz5-zF4L76-AzEpBQ-zEWjab-zEWMPu-zF5QZk-zF5V9x-AzEotY-9nAiQe-8XFzoX-9nDkzN-9nDkJU-9nAiZK-9nApnX-9nAiJF-9nDksA-9nAiCT-9nDkAG-9nDkSL-9nDkC9-9nAiKr-9nAiUp-9nDkxA-9nDkP1-9nDkHj-9nDkrQ-9nDkv5-9nAiAZ-KvDhU3-9nDktq">peoplesworld/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here are the kinds of people the proposed safety net cuts would affect: severely disabled parents who can’t afford food for their toddlers. An elderly couple who can’t foot their heating bill in the winter. A single mom working two jobs and nevertheless struggling to feed her three children with what she earns. It makes little sense for the government to deny assistance to these people because they can’t get a job or because they have a job but don’t earn enough to make ends meet. </p>
<p>The Agriculture Department, which oversees food stamps, <a href="https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/ops/Characteristics2015.pdf">says that 75 percent</a> of the Americans receiving those benefits in 2015 were children, elderly or disabled. Further, <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/able-bodied-adults-without-dependents-abawds#1">it reports</a> that among households that included someone able to work, more than 75 percent included someone who had held a job in the year before or after receiving food stamps. <a href="https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/ops/Characteristics2015.pdf">Many others</a> worked for low wages while receiving benefits. LIHEAP serves a similar population.</p>
<p>Leaving aside the question of why so many low-income workers <a href="http://www.epi.org/publication/minimum-wage-workers-poverty-anymore-raising/">don’t earn enough money to feed their families</a>, what would it mean for children, the elderly and the disabled to be more, as Mulvaney puts it, “in charge of their lives”? Doesn’t our society want to spend money ensuring the very neediest and most vulnerable people don’t starve or freeze to death? </p>
<p>As researchers, we embrace evidence-based decision-making. We are confused by Mulvaney’s metric of success. We want to know why, if experts have deemed these popular programs a success, the Trump administration doesn’t seem to agree.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78325/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The best way to assess a program’s effectiveness is see how well it meets the goals for which it was created. Maybe someone could tell the Trump administration.David Campbell, Associate Professor of Public Administration, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkKristina Marty, Associate Dean of the College of Community and Public Affairs, and an Associate Professor of Public Administration, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.