tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/strategy-3270/articlesStrategy – The Conversation2023-05-16T12:49:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2008072023-05-16T12:49:23Z2023-05-16T12:49:23ZSunzi, ‘shì’ and strategy: How to read ‘Art of War’ the way its author intended<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525249/original/file-20230509-29-n04lg9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C3%2C1020%2C774&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A copy of the 'Art of War' from a collection at the University of California, Riverside. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bluefootedbooby/370460130/">vlasta2/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the mid-1990s, I picked up the military classic “<a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/tzu-sun/the-art-of-war/9780465013272/">Art of War</a>” hoping to find insight into my new career as an officer in the United States Marine Corps. </p>
<p>I was not the only one looking for insights from the sage Sunzi, also known as Sun Tzu, who died over 2,500 years ago. “Art of War” has long been mined for an understanding of China’s strategic tradition and universal military truths. The book’s maxims, such as “know the enemy and know yourself,” are routinely quoted in military texts, as well as <a href="https://www.harpercollinsleadership.com/9780814433812/the-art-of-war-for-small-business/">business</a> and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/sun-tzu-and-the-art-of-business-9780199782918?cc=us&lang=en&">management</a> books.</p>
<p>Initially, I was disappointed. It seemed Sunzi’s advice was either common sense or in agreement with Western military classics. However, a few years later the Marine Corps trained me as a China scholar, and I spent much of my career working on <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Future-of-the-United-States-Australia-Alliance-Evolving-Security-Strategy/McDonald-Tan/p/book/9781032399874">U.S. policy in the Indo-Pacific</a> region. This deepened my desire to understand how leaders in the People’s Republic of China see the world and choose strategies. Looking for insight, I turned to classical Chinese philosophy and finally encountered concepts that helped illuminate the unique perspective of Sunzi’s “Art of War.” </p>
<p>Today, I am an academic researching <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=jHkVnDUAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">how Chinese philosophy and foreign policy intersect</a>. To comprehend “Art of War,” it helps readers to approach the text from the worldview of its author. That means reading Sunzi’s advice <a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/deciphering-sun-tzu/">through the prism of classical Chinese metaphysics</a>, which is deeply shaped by the philosophy of Daoism.</p>
<h2>Daoist roots</h2>
<p>China’s intellectual tradition is rooted in <a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/Warring_States_Period/">the Warring States period</a> from the 5th to 3rd century B.C.E., the era during which Sunzi is thought to have lived. Though a time of conflict, it was also a time of cultural and intellectual development that led to the rise of Daoism and Confucianism. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A weathered painting of an Asian man with a small beard and mustache, wearing a yellow and black robe." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=726&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=726&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=726&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525250/original/file-20230509-36846-xhn8ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sunzi’s writing has had a significant impact on both Chinese and foreign politics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sun-wu-style-name-changqing-better-known-as-sun-tzu-or-news-photo/1354436026?adppopup=true">Pictures From History/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Confucian philosophy focuses on maintaining proper social relationships as the key to moral behavior and and social harmony. Daoism, on the other hand, is more concerned with metaphysics: trying to understand the workings of the natural world and drawing analogies about how humans should act.</p>
<p>Daoism views existence as composed of constant <a href="https://ctext.org/dao-de-jing#n11593">cycles of change</a>, in which power ebbs and flows. Meanwhile, the “Dào,” or “the way,” directs all things in nature toward fulfilling their inherent potential, like water flowing downhill.</p>
<h2>Helping nature take its course</h2>
<p>The Chinese word for this concept of “<a href="https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?p=AONE&u=googlescholar&id=GALE%7CA299257203&v=2.1&it=r&sid=AONE&asid=baeb9666">situational potential</a>” is 勢, or “shì” – the name of Chapter Five in “Art of War.” Almost every Western version translates it differently, but it is key to the military concepts Sunzi employs.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://ctext.org/art-of-war/energy">Chapter Five</a> explains how those who are “expert at war” are not overly concerned with individual soldiers. Instead, effective leaders are able to determine the potential in the situation and put themselves in position to take advantage of it. </p>
<p>This is why later chapters spend so much time discussing geography and deployment of forces, rather than fighting techniques. One does more to damage an opponent’s potential by <a href="https://ctext.org/art-of-war?searchu=attack#n20925%20%22%22">undermining their scheme</a> than by merely killing their soldiers. Sunzi <a href="https://ctext.org/art-of-war/maneuvering#n20951">is concerned about long supply lines</a>, because they lower an army’s potential by making it harder to move and vulnerable to disruption. A general who understands potential can evaluate troops, terrain and scheme, then arrange the battlefield to “<a href="https://ctext.org/art-of-war/attack-by-stratagem#n20926">subdue the enemy without fighting</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Chinese painting of a battle scene, with soldiers in blue outfits, and some text in the upper-right corner." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525251/original/file-20230509-21-d8jb9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Painting of a battle between Chinese and Vietnamese forces during the Qing invasion of Vietnam in 1788.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-1788-a-large-qing-army-was-sent-south-to-restore-le-m_n-news-photo/1354438408?adppopup=true">Pictures From History/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In <a href="https://ctext.org/dao-de-jing#n11639">Daoist thought</a>, the correct way to manage each situation’s potential is to act with 無為, “wúwéi,” which literally translates as “nonaction.” However, the key idea is to <a href="https://ctext.org/dao-de-jing#n11655">disturb the natural order as little as possible</a>, taking the minimum action needed to allow the situation’s potential to be fulfilled. The term does not appear in “Art of War,” but a contemporary reader of Sunzi’s would have been familiar with the connection between nurturing “shì” and acting with “wúwéi.”</p>
<p>The importance of acting with “wúwéi” is illustrated by <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/mencius/">the Confucian philosopher Mengzi’s</a> story about a farmer <a href="https://ctext.org/mengzi/gong-sun-chou-i#n1630%20%22%22">who pulled on his corn stalks</a> in an attempt to help them grow tall, but killed the crop instead. One does not help corn grow by forcing it but by understanding its natural potential and acting accordingly: ensuring the soil is good, weeds are removed and water is sufficient. Actions are most effective when they nurture potential, not when they try to force it.</p>
<h2>From the battlefield to the UN</h2>
<p>In a Daoist understanding, leaders hoping to chart an effective strategy must read the situation, discover its potential, and position their armies or states in the best position to take advantage of “shì.” They act with “wúwéi” to nurture situations, rather than force, which could disturb the situation and cause chaos.</p>
<p>Therefore, in foreign policy, a decision-maker should attempt to make small policy adjustments as early as possible to slowly manage the development of the international environment. This approach is evident in Beijing’s use of “guānxì.” Meaning “relationships,” the Chinese term <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-misunderstood-business-concept-in-china-2011-2">carries a strong sense of mutual obligation</a>. </p>
<p>For example, the PRC waged a decadeslong effort to <a href="https://thechinaproject.com/2020/10/21/when-the-prc-won-the-china-seat-at-the-un/">take over the United Nations “China seat” from Taiwan</a>, where the Republic of China government had fled after Communists’ victory in the civil war. Beijing accomplished that by slowly building friendships, identifying shared strategic interests and accruing owed favors with many small states around the world, until in 1971 it had enough votes in the General Assembly.</p>
<h2>Trend-watching today</h2>
<p>The concept of “shì” also provides a lens for understanding <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-says-14-chinese-air-force-planes-crossed-taiwan-strait-median-line-2023-04-12/">the PRC’s increasing pressure on Taiwan</a>, a self-ruled island that Beijing claims is its own territory. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A night scene of a silhouetted tank with lit-up skyscrapers in the distance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525252/original/file-20230509-35948-xapo67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Taiwanese tank used in previous conflicts and on display for tourists in Kinmen, Taiwan, is seen silhouetted against the skyline of the mainland city of Xiamen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/taiwanese-tank-used-in-previous-conflicts-and-on-display-news-photo/1480978289?adppopup=true">Chris McGrath/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sunzi might say that discerning the current trend in the Taiwan Strait is more essential than conventional questions about comparative military strength. Several factors could push Taiwan closer to Beijing, including the island’s <a href="https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202303260003">loss of diplomatic allies</a> and the pull of the PRC’s <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/03/15/taiwans-continued-success-requires-economic-diversification-of-products-and-markets/">massive economy</a> – not to mention Beijing’s <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/03/23/the-world-according-to-xi">growing global clout</a> vis-à-vis the U.S. If so, shì is in Beijing’s favor, and a nudge to persuade the U.S. to stay out is all that is needed to keep the situation developing to the PRC’s advantage.</p>
<p>Or is the potential developing in the other direction? Such factors as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/world/asia/taiwan-china-identity.html">a growing sense of a unique Taiwanese identity</a> and <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/02/beijing-economy-playbook-gdp-household-consumption/">the PRC’s troubled economic model</a> may make closer ties with the mainland less and less appealing in Taiwan. In that case, Beijing may see a need to appear strong and dominant so Taiwan will not be lulled into counting on support from Washington, D.C.</p>
<p>A surface reading of Sunzi can easily support an emphasis on troop deployments, intelligence and logistics. However, an understanding of “shì” highlights Sunzi’s emphasis on evaluating and nurturing situational potential. It is not that the former are unimportant, but a decision-maker will use them differently if the goal is to manage situational trends rather than seek decisive battle.</p>
<p>That “Art of War” continues to top <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/books/5020/ref=zg_b_bs_5020_1">sales lists</a> demonstrates its lasting appeal. However, to be useful as a guide to understanding security policy and strategy, my experience in the Indo-Pacific region suggests one must dig into the principles that shaped Sunzi’s view of the world and continue to shape the view of leaders in Beijing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200807/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott D. McDonald receives funding from the Sara Scaife Foundation, Eisenhower Institute, Charles Koch Foundation, and Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. </span></em></p>The ancient Chinese text is considered a military classic, but Western readers often overlook its philosophical roots.Scott D. McDonald, Non-resident Fellow, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies; PhD Candidate, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1964832022-12-15T23:37:23Z2022-12-15T23:37:23ZHow to play and win the gift-stealing game Bad Santa, according to a mathematician<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500615/original/file-20221213-1960-jrq844.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C297%2C3812%2C1903&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Christmas comes but once a year – as do Christmas party games. With such little practice it’s hard to get good at any of them.</p>
<p>Let me help. I’m going to share with you some expert tips, tested through mathematical modelling, on how to win one of the most popular games: Bad Santa – also known as Dirty Santa, White Elephant, Grab Bag, Yankee Swap, Thieving Secret Santa, or simply “that present-stealing game”.</p>
<p>This isn’t advice on being a bad sport. It’s about being a good Bad Santa – which is the name of the game. You might even come away with a good gift <em>and</em> bragging rights.</p>
<h2>How Bad Santa works</h2>
<p>Bad Santa is a variation of the classic Kris Kringle (or Secret Santa) game, in which each guest receives an anonymous gift bought by another guest. Part of the fun (for others) is the unwrapping of silly and useless gifts, which is done one by one.</p>
<p>Bad Santa spices things up. All the gifts are pooled. Guests take turns to choose one to unwrap. Or they can choose to “steal” a gift already opened by someone else. The person losing their gift then gets the same choice: open a wrapped present or steal someone else’s. </p>
<p>It’s a good alternative to buying a gift for everyone, and a great way to ruin friendships.</p>
<p>The order of players is usually determined by drawing numbers from a hat. This is important, because you’ve probably already noted the disadvantage of going first and the benefit of going last. The right rules can mitigate this. There are at least a dozen <a href="https://www.elfster.com/content/how-to-play-a-white-elephant-gift-exchange-game/">different</a> <a href="https://www.whiteelephantrules.com/">versions</a> <a href="http://www.dirtysantarules.com/">of this game</a> published online, and some are much less fair than others.</p>
<h2>How I tested Bad Santa</h2>
<p>The best way to test Bad Santa rule variations and playing strategies would be to observe games in real life – say, by attending 1,000 Christmas parties (funding bodies please call me).</p>
<p>I did the next best thing, deploying the same type of computer modelling (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent-based_model">known as agent-based modelling</a>) used to understand everything from <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352467722002247">bidding in electricity markets</a> to how the human <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24864263/">immune system</a> works. </p>
<p>In my model there are 16 virtual guests and 16 gifts. Each has different present preferences, rating opened gifts on a scale of 1 to 10. They will steal a gift they rate better than a 5. To make it interesting, three gifts are rated highly by everyone and there are three no one really wants – probably a novelty mug or something.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Garish Christmas pudding themed jumper." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501208/original/file-20221215-12659-b5y6ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501208/original/file-20221215-12659-b5y6ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501208/original/file-20221215-12659-b5y6ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501208/original/file-20221215-12659-b5y6ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501208/original/file-20221215-12659-b5y6ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501208/original/file-20221215-12659-b5y6ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501208/original/file-20221215-12659-b5y6ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Or something.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After simulating 50,000 games with different rules, I’ve found a set of rules that seems the most fair, no matter what number you draw from the hat. </p>
<h2>Choosing the fairest rules</h2>
<p>The following graph shows the results for four different game variations.</p>
<p>The higher the line, the greater the overall satisfaction. The flatter the lines, the fairer the result. (If gifts were chosen randomly with no stealing, every player’s average satisfaction score would be 5.) </p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/12164241/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/12164241/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/12164241" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"> </a></div>
<hr>
<p>The most unfair result comes from the “dark blue rules”, which stipulate that any gift can only be stolen once in any round. This mean if you’re the last person, you’ve got the biggest choice and get to keep what you steal. If you go first, you’re bound to lose out.</p>
<h2>Fairest and best Bad Santa rules</h2>
<p>The most fair outcomes come from the “red rules”:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>A gift can be stolen multiple times each turn. This keeps presents moving between guests, which adds to the fun.</p></li>
<li><p>Once a person holds the same gift three times it becomes “locked”, and can no longer be stolen. This evens the game out a lot. Later players still see more gifts, but earlier players have more chance to lock the gift they want. It also ensures games don’t go on for hours.</p></li>
<li><p>After the last player’s turn, there is one more round of stealing, starting with the very first player. This also gives them a chance to steal at least once – and a slight advantage. But overall, these rules provide the most even outcomes.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Like most games, the rules are’t perfect. But the maths shows they are better than the alternatives. If you want to test other scenarios using my model, you can download my <a href="https://www.joelgilmore.com.au/wp-content/uploads/SecretSantaSimulator_2022.py">source code here</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500625/original/file-20221213-1598-cximvx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="On your turn you can either steal an open gift or open a new one If you’re stolen from, you can steal from someone else or open a gift. If you hold a gift three times, it is locked. First person gets a final steal." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500625/original/file-20221213-1598-cximvx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500625/original/file-20221213-1598-cximvx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500625/original/file-20221213-1598-cximvx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500625/original/file-20221213-1598-cximvx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500625/original/file-20221213-1598-cximvx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500625/original/file-20221213-1598-cximvx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500625/original/file-20221213-1598-cximvx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Optimal rules for playing Bad Santa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Gilmore / Background by Monika from Pixabay</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Three tips on game strategy</h2>
<p>The right rules help level the playing field. They don’t eliminate the need for strategic thinking to maximise your chance to get a gift you want. </p>
<p>As in real life, seemingly fair rules can be manipulated. </p>
<p>One thing you could do is team up with other players to manipulate the “three holds and locked” rule. To do this, you’ll need at least two co-conspirators.</p>
<p>Say your friends Donner and Blitzen have their preferred gifts, and now it’s your turn. You steal Blitzen’s gift. Blitzen in turn steals Donner’s, who steals yours, and so on. Donner and Blitzen end up holding their chosen gifts a second time, then a third. You helped them out, and then can choose another gift.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Alright, let's go over the plan again. I steal this gift, then you steal that gift, and then you steal my gift." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500968/original/file-20221214-1152-hnc795.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500968/original/file-20221214-1152-hnc795.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500968/original/file-20221214-1152-hnc795.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500968/original/file-20221214-1152-hnc795.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500968/original/file-20221214-1152-hnc795.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500968/original/file-20221214-1152-hnc795.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500968/original/file-20221214-1152-hnc795.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alright, let’s go over the plan again. I steal this gift, then you steal that gift, and then you steal my gift.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In competitive markets this type of co-operation is usually know as collusion – and it’s illegal. In sport, it would simply be called cheating. So I’m not saying you <em>should</em> do this; I am merely explaining how the strategy works. If you do this and end up on the naughty list, don’t blame me. </p>
<p>I haven’t yet tested rules variations in my model to see how this collusion can best be eliminated or minimised. Maybe by next Christmas. (Or maybe not – for me, cheating through maths is half the fun of the game.)</p>
<p>So let me leave you with two perfectly legitimate strategies.</p>
<p>First, and most obviously, you must steal gifts! </p>
<p>My modelling quantifies how necessary this is. I simulated a game in which four guests will never steal a gift. Those guests are 75% less satisfied with their final gifts than the players who do steal. They’re also much less fun at parties.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/12176533/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/12176533/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/12176533" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"> </a></div>
<hr>
<p>Second, steal even if there’s nothing you want yet. </p>
<p>Steal the present you think someone else will want. If a later player steals your gift, you get another chance to pick again when more gifts have been opened.</p>
<p>And if someone gets Grinchy when you use these techniques to bag the best gift, just be sure to tell them you read about it on The Conversation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196483/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joel Gilmore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scientist has crunched the numbers and come up with rules to make the Bad Santa game fairer and more fun.Joel Gilmore, Associate Professor, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1952082022-11-24T00:43:40Z2022-11-24T00:43:40ZAn AI named Cicero can beat humans in Diplomacy, a complex alliance-building game. Here’s why that’s a big deal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497134/original/file-20221123-12-zkmjtk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C10%2C6699%2C4456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a rare piece of good news from Meta, artificial intelligence researchers at the company have just announced <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade9097">a scientific breakthrough</a>. Their AI program named Cicero can now play the board game Diplomacy at a human level. </p>
<p>Now, before you get too excited, Cicero isn’t playing at superhuman level. It was beaten by around 10% of the humans it played against. By comparison, in previous AI milestones, like AI beating humans in chess or Go, humans have long been completely surpassed. </p>
<p>DeepMind’s Go-playing AI is, for example, a “Go god” – according to the Chinese grandmaster Ke Jie. Even the human Go world champion would now lose 100-0 to the computer. </p>
<p>Diplomacy is a simplified and abstract game, involving rival armies and navies invading, or not invading, each others’ territories. It’s fair to say it lacks the complexity and subtlety of the sort of diplomacy undertaken in the corridors of the United Nations.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the news of Cicero’s performance was one in the eye for tech rivals such as Google, who owns DeepMind. The CEO and founder of DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, is a Diplomacy expert. He won the World Team Championship in 2004, and was 4th in the world in the 2006 World Championship. </p>
<p>I expect Hassabis would be able to beat Cicero easily because of some of the limitations I will point out shortly. </p>
<h2>The game of Diplomacy</h2>
<p>Diplomacy is what AI researchers call a “seven player, zero sum and deterministic game of imperfect information”. A seven player game is much harder to solve than a two player game such as chess or Go. You must consider the many possible strategies of not one but six other players. This makes it much harder to write an AI to play the game. </p>
<p>Diplomacy is also a game of imperfect information, because players make moves simultaneously. Unlike games such as chess or Go, where you know everything about your opponent’s moves, players in Diplomacy make moves not knowing what their opponents are about to do. They must therefore predict their opponents’ next actions. This also adds to the challenge of writing an AI to play it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497135/original/file-20221124-18-xi02zl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497135/original/file-20221124-18-xi02zl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497135/original/file-20221124-18-xi02zl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497135/original/file-20221124-18-xi02zl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497135/original/file-20221124-18-xi02zl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497135/original/file-20221124-18-xi02zl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497135/original/file-20221124-18-xi02zl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497135/original/file-20221124-18-xi02zl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This digital Diplomacy board shows the different land and sea territories players must traverse.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Finally, Diplomacy is a zero sum game in which if you win, I lose. And the outcome is deterministic and not dependent on chance. Nonetheless, before victory or defeat, it still pays for players to form alliances and team up on each other. Indeed, one of the real challenges in playing the game is managing the informal negotiations with other players before making simultaneous moves. </p>
<p>The main reason Cicero’s performance is a scientific breakthrough is that it can both play the game well, and also perform these informal negotiations. This combination of natural language processing and strategic reasoning is a first for any game-playing AI.</p>
<h2>Beating Cicero</h2>
<p>A close reading of the <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade9097">paper Meta published</a> about Cicero in the prestigious journal Science offers a couple of clues about how you can beat it.</p>
<p>First, Cicero is almost entirely honest (unlike the <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/cicero">famous Roman</a> it’s named after). On the other hand, Diplomacy is a game of betrayal and dishonesty. Players offer to form alliances but often instantly renege on these deals. Cicero does not. It always plays straight. </p>
<p>Honesty is a surprisingly effective strategy in Diplomacy – but not if your opponents know you will never betray them. This is the catch. Cicero played anonymously, so its human opponents probably wouldn’t have worked this out. But if you know this fact, it will be easy to take advantage.</p>
<p>Second, Cicero (this time like his namesake) is very talkative. Expert players of Diplomacy exchange twice the number of messages with other players than non-experts. The trick is to form alliances, and reassure your opponents of your intent. Cicero also exchanges twice the number messages of the human players it tends to beat. </p>
<p>Of course, being a bot, it is much easier for Cicero to handle six simultaneous conversations. And this, I would say, is an unfair advantage of being a computer in this scenario.</p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>It’s not clear how Meta intends to build on this research. A computer that can reason about the beliefs, goals, and intentions of others, as well as persuade and build relationships through dialogue, is a powerful tool. It’s one that could be easily misused. Let’s not forget how several years ago Facebook (which is owned by Meta) came in for a lot of justified criticism for an experiment to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/06/everything-we-know-about-facebooks-secret-mood-manipulation-experiment/373648/">manipulate users’ emotions</a>.</p>
<p>Yet it’s hard to say exactly what the real-world applications of Cicero might be. After all, diplomacy in the real world is neither zero sum nor deterministic. Two countries can both agree not to go to war, and both will win. </p>
<p>Then there are multitudes of random factors that can change an outcome. The Spanish Armada, for example, lost more ships to unexpected summer storms than to enemy fire. </p>
<p>Whatever Meta’s intent, the breakthrough is another example of how large tech companies are taking over the AI race with billion dollar investments that can’t be matched by the public sector. Cicero was produced by a team of more than 25 researchers. Nobody working in a university has these sorts of resources to throw at solving a board game. </p>
<p>As an AI researcher at one of those universities, I am conflicted. I’m reminded of a famous graffito at Pompeii <a href="http://www.3pp.website/2011/05/from-pompeii-to-cyberspace-transcending.html">which said</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>Suti Ciciiro vapla bis</p>
</blockquote>
<p>“You will like Cicero, or you will be whipped”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-invited-an-ai-to-debate-its-own-ethics-in-the-oxford-union-what-it-said-was-startling-173607">We invited an AI to debate its own ethics in the Oxford Union – what it said was startling</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toby Walsh receives funding from the Australian Research Council as an ARC Laureate Fellow. </span></em></p>The AI leans on a particular tactic for its success. If you knew what it was, beating it would get drastically easier.Toby Walsh, Professor of AI at UNSW, Research Group Leader, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1942962022-11-17T14:11:11Z2022-11-17T14:11:11ZSouth Africa needs strategic leadership to weather its storms. Its presidents have not been up to the task<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495594/original/file-20221116-22-xqzgnr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C37%2C1778%2C1197&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's democratic era presidents, Nelson Mandela, Thabo Mbeki, Kgalema Motlanthe, Jacob Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Penguin Random House South Africa</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa is in a state of crisis. Its current reality is necessarily shaped by historical events, not least the outcomes of the political settlement process that led to the end of apartheid <a href="https://www.britannica.com/question/How-did-apartheid-end">in 1994</a>.</p>
<p>Unlike other countries in southern Africa, where political independence came after gruesome liberation wars, the leaders of the African National Congress (<a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/">ANC</a>), which led the liberation struggle and has been the governing party since 1994 – alongside other political and social movements – managed to negotiate a transition to democracy. There were many “wins”, including assent to the election of a majority-led government and the enactment of policies that would ensure broad-based <a href="http://www.thedtic.gov.za/financial-and-non-financial-support/b-bbee/broad-based-black-economic-empowerment/">economic transformation</a>.</p>
<p>This transition may be seen as a point in history where the nation navigated one of its greatest crises. But its current leadership is confronted with multiple challenges. These range from <a href="https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/data/download/poverty/33EF03BB-9722-4AE2-ABC7-AA2972D68AFE/Global_POVEQ_ZAF.pdf">extreme poverty</a> and high <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/Media%20release%20QLFS%20Q2%202022.pdf">unemployment</a> to the severe undermining of democratic institutions by <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">corruption and state capture</a>. </p>
<p>These “wicked problems” are so difficult and complex that there is no single, silver-bullet answer. There is only a range of clumsy solutions, all of which are imperfect. The policy-making puzzle, therefore, is as much about recognising the nature of the problem as seeking to mitigate risks. </p>
<p>Our new <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.co.za/book/presidents-mandela-ramaphosa-leadership-age-crisis/9781776095940">book</a>, The Presidents: From Mandela to Ramaphosa, Leadership in an Age of Crisis, assessed the leadership of South Africa’s five post-apartheid presidents – <a href="https://www.eisa.org/wep/souoverview8.htm">Nelson Mandela</a>, <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/profiles/former-president-thabo-mvuyelwa-mbeki">Thabo Mbeki</a>, <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/node/111">Kgalema Motlanthe</a>, <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/profiles/president-jacob-zuma-0">Jacob Zuma</a> and <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/profiles/president-cyril-ramaphosa%3A-profile">Cyril Ramaphosa</a>. We wanted to see what lessons can be learned, especially in relation to their strategic abilities. Strategy is one of the critical leadership attributes necessary to cope with the strong headwinds that leaders often encounter.</p>
<p>We concluded that there has been a shortage of truly strategic leadership in South Africa in this period, with a few exceptions. Thus, the country has been unable to grapple with the underlying structural problems that are the fundamental cause of its socio-economic precarity. </p>
<h2>Strategic thinking</h2>
<p>What do we mean by “strategy”? Here we defer to former UK member of parliament and now (UK) Times columnist <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/profile/matthew-parris?page=1">Matthew Parris</a>. He says,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>although the meaning has become diluted through promiscuous and often inappropriate use … strategy remains the best word we have for expressing attempts to think about actions in advance, in the light of our goals and capacities.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Many leaders, governments and organisations confuse planning with strategy. So this is an apt consideration to keep in mind: have South Africa’s post-1994 presidents addressed the fundamental question of what is wrong with the society and its economy, in a strategic way? </p>
<p>Here’s how the country’s five post-apartheid presidents have fared on strategy.</p>
<h2>Five different styles</h2>
<p>Mandela, the first president of a democratic South Africa, made big strategic choices – not necessarily the right ones, but certainly ones that were befitting of the times. </p>
<p>A primary strategy choice faced Mandela at the very advent of the democratic era. He opted for national reconciliation as his political motif. It was strategic in the sense that the alternative was to drive a strong transformational agenda without seeking to get the powerful and privileged white minority on board. </p>
<p>Crudely put, he could have opted for redemption and even revenge, rather than reconciliation. </p>
<p>This was accompanied by a deep personal commitment to the rule of law and constitutionalism. He used his presidential power to drive that message and execute that strategy, leaving the detail of management of policy and government to his number two, Thabo Mbeki.</p>
<p>The transition from his government’s Reconstruction and Development Programme (<a href="https://www.gov.za/faq/finance-business/where-do-i-get-copy-reconstruction-and-development-programme-rdp">RDP</a>) to the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (<a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/growth-employment-and-redistribution-macroeconomic-strategy-south-africa-gear">GEAR</a>) macroeconomic strategy is another debatable case in point. </p>
<p>The RDP was the ANC government-in-waiting’s flagship programme for socio-economic transformation. It was an essentially Keynesian public investment-focused plan for improving public services such as housing, healthcare and electricity to the black majority. The shift to GEAR was deeply contested. Left-of-centre commentators and players within the broader ANC-led alliance saw it as a neo-liberal approach to fiscal and monetary policy that would constrain the government’s ability to drive redistribution of wealth and opportunity. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495318/original/file-20221115-16-v7q0ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495318/original/file-20221115-16-v7q0ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495318/original/file-20221115-16-v7q0ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495318/original/file-20221115-16-v7q0ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495318/original/file-20221115-16-v7q0ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495318/original/file-20221115-16-v7q0ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495318/original/file-20221115-16-v7q0ty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When his turn came as president (1999-2008), Mbeki strove to step up to the strategic standards that Mandela had set. His <a href="https://theconversation.com/mbekis-dream-of-africas-renaissance-belied-south-africas-schizophrenia-58311">vision for Africa</a>, in which Africans would take control of their destiny, was strategic. So was his determination to confront the <a href="http://www.dirco.gov.za/docs/speeches/1998/mbek0529.htm">“two nations”</a> problem – one prosperous and white, the other poor and black. </p>
<p>The shift to GEAR was executed with strategic purpose and an iron fist. There were negative consequences, especially in the long term. But few, if any, big strategic choices can be win-win; there will invariably be a downside. The question is whether the leader understands and then confronts the dilemma, and in doing so can articulate the upside and recognise its intrinsic value, one that justifies the downside. </p>
<p>Mbeki was a flawed visionary. His legacy is scarred by his inexplicable <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-mbekis-character-and-his-aids-denialism-are-intimately-linked-54766">lack of judgment on HIV/AIDS</a>, and his stubborn refusal to accept that his government should provide antiretroviral treatment. </p>
<p>Motlanthe, who succeeded him, in his modest way, also recognised the strategic imperative of his short, caretaker time as president – (<a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/profiles/former-president-kgalema-motlanthe">25 September 2008 to 9 May 2009</a>): to consolidate authority in democratic government and to stabilise an unstable body politic in the context of the palace coup that had taken place within the ANC. </p>
<p>Even Zuma, his successor, in his own mendacious and deviously self-serving way, had strategic intent: to <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">capture the state</a> for venal personal gain. He executed it with a ruthless sense of purpose.</p>
<p>Current president Cyril Ramaphosa appears to be the least strategic of them all. His failure to grasp the strategic nettles inhibits his presidency. On issues such as the transition away from coal, the government stake in state-owned enterprises or the need for a basic income grant, Ramaphosa has dithered, seeking to wait until sufficient consensus has formed or putting in place cumbersome consultation processes, before reaching a clear decision. </p>
<p>He gets things done; he gets there in the end, but his design and use of process is that of a master tactician, not a strategist. He has not risen to the leadership heights required by the gravity of the historical moment. This requires leadership that would unshackle government from the congealing embrace of the ruling ANC and its fractious factions. A leader who would rise above the daily throng to inspire ordinary citizens with a compelling narrative of hope and change, underpinned by iron determination to take brave decisions and to execute them with a sense of purpose and urgent expedition. </p>
<h2>Circling the problem</h2>
<p>The crises that confronted these five presidents have been very different, with varying levels of intensity and composition. Each has faced big challenges, that could inevitably not be resolved only by their executive office. Undoubtedly, part of strategic and visionary leadership is the ability to identify existing and potential allies who are willing to invest what is required to drive a transformative agenda. </p>
<p>All have responded to “what went wrong”. But, because of limitations to their strategic leadership, none has fully met the challenge of confronting “what is wrong” head-on. Their ability to address the question of “what is wrong” has been constrained by the very real demands to put out fires, and keeping the boat afloat without an eye on the navigation system. And where they have focused on navigating the rough seas to get to the destination of a more equal, inclusive South Africa, the vessels of governance with a mandate to steward these transitions have not always delivered.</p>
<p>Mandela, Mbeki and now Ramaphosa have circled the problem (while Zuma weakened the state’s capability). But perhaps because it is such a wicked problem, and the structural difficulties run so deep, they have failed to define a strategic course that would confront the underlying structural conditions, consigning South Africa to an uncertain and worrisome future. </p>
<p><em>This is an edited extract from the authors’ <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.co.za/book/presidents-mandela-ramaphosa-leadership-age-crisis/9781776095940">new book</a> The Presidents: From Mandela to Ramaphosa, Leadership in an Age of Crisis</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Calland is employed by the University of Cape Town, is a Fellow of the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, is a partner of political risk consultancy The Paternoster Group, and serves as a member of the Advisory Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution (CASAC).
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mabel Dzinouya Sithole is employed by the University of Cape Town, contributes regularly to policy advocacy with the Southern African Liaison Office, and other civil society organisations in the region. She advises organisations such as the Ford Foundation on the design of leadership development programmes in Africa and across the globe. </span></em></p>Mandela, the first president of a democratic South Africa, made big strategic choices – not necessarily the right ones, but certainly ones that were befitting of the times.Richard Calland, Associate Professor in Public Law, University of Cape TownMabel Dzinouya Sithole, Programme Officer - Building Bridges, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1811732022-04-13T13:53:15Z2022-04-13T13:53:15ZRussia-Ukraine crisis highlights Africa’s need to diversify its wheat sources<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457700/original/file-20220412-22029-eg2l0t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Moma_Production</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The war between Russia and Ukraine has highlighted how much of the world’s wheat supply relies on these two countries. For instance, a recently <a href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osginf2022d1_en.pdf">released UN report</a> shows a sample of 25 African countries that rely on wheat imports from Russia or Ukraine. Of this group, 21 import most of their wheat from Russia. </p>
<p>Between 2018 and 2020, Africa imported US$3.7 billion in wheat (32% of the continent’s total wheat imports) from Russia and another US$1.4 billion from Ukraine (12% of the continent’s wheat imports).</p>
<p>It’s crucial that African countries diversify their wheat sources for two key reasons. </p>
<p>First, wheat forms an important component of diets. Not having enough brings the threat of hunger and political instability. </p>
<p>Second, Africa’s dependency on Russian wheat imports will influence key political and military decisions. Given some African countries’ dependence on Russian wheat, it could’ve influenced how they voted on the two United Nations General Assembly resolutions concerning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In both instances, a surprising number of countries either <a href="https://theconversation.com/african-countries-showed-disunity-in-un-votes-on-russia-south-africas-role-was-pivotal-180799">supported Russia</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-war-with-ukraine-five-reasons-why-many-african-countries-choose-to-be-neutral-180135">remained neutral</a>. One reason for this could be because they wouldn’t want to upset relations with a good supplier.</p>
<p>Over the centuries, the sourcing of wheat has factored into the political and strategic decisions and security of many countries. </p>
<p>Consider the ancient Greek city-state of Athens: in the fifth century BC, Athens had to feed an ever-growing population. <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/%7Epswpc/pdfs/krotscheck/010603.pdf">Officials turned</a> towards parts of Egypt, Sicily, Syria and the Black Sea region to fill Athenian granaries – a pattern of expansion and trade which has often been repeated in world history.</p>
<p>Nazi Germany addressed food shortages via its <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40542587">Hunger Plan</a> –- a policy for the seizure of food from the Soviet Union to feed German soldiers and civilians. </p>
<p>During the Cold War, the US used its advantage as a major wheat-producing nation to influence decision makers and cement support among states. Wheat exports accompanied American military deployments around the world. </p>
<p>In 2022, the geopolitics of wheat has once again come under the spotlight with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. </p>
<p>As experts on foreign relations – with a focus on African <a href="http://www.mandelaschool.uct.ac.za/gsdpp/about/staff">political economy </a> and <a href="http://www.mandelaschool.uct.ac.za/gsdpp/about/staff">trade and agriculture</a> in Africa – we wanted to highlight the dependency of many African countries on wheat supplies from these two warring nations, and we wanted to stress the need for the region to diversify its wheat sources.</p>
<h2>Global wheat supply</h2>
<p>Russia and Ukraine are among the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/wheat-production-by-country">world’s top 10 wheat producers</a> (which are mostly based in the Global North) and among the five biggest wheat exporters. Together, the two <a href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osginf2022d1_en.pdf">represent 27%</a> of the global trade in wheat.</p>
<p>Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/03/17/global-food-prices-had-already-hit-record-high-then-russia-invaded-ukraine">global food prices were already rising</a>. This was mostly as a result of sub-par harvests, increased transport costs and supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19. </p>
<p>The Russia-Ukraine war has further compounded global uncertainties making the agro-food market jittery, <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-will-russias-invasion-ukraine-affect-global-food-security">further escalating</a> global food prices and the prices of agricultural materials, such as fertiliser.</p>
<p>Since Russia invaded Ukraine, concerns over wheat supply disruptions, especially from the Black Sea region, have significantly increased wheat prices. Between <a href="https://www.foodbeverageinsider.com/ingredients/global-food-commodity-prices-hit-record-high-february">January and February</a> 2022, global wheat prices <a href="https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-food-price-index-rises-to-record-high-in-february/en">increased by</a> 2.1%.</p>
<p>A rise in wheat prices can have significant knock-on effects given the importance of bread to daily diets around the world. </p>
<h2>The African impact</h2>
<p>Increases to the price of foodstuffs presents a double threat: it increases the levels of food insecurity and poverty. </p>
<p>Wheat is widely consumed across the African continent. Between 2000 and 2009, in sub-Saharan Africa alone, <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/midiwp/146936.html">wheat consumption increased at a rate of 0.35kg/year,</a> outpacing maize and rice. It became an important crop and staple due to rapid population growth, increased urbanisation, and changes in food preferences. Consumers in Africa use wheat for easy and fast food, such as bread, biscuits, pasta, noodles and porridge.</p>
<p>Moreover, some countries in Africa —- such as <a href="https://northafricapost.com/55719-moroccos-soft-wheat-subsidies-to-soar-to-3-84-billion-dirhams-410-million.html">Morocco</a>, <a href="https://fount.aucegypt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3475&context=retro_etds">Egypt</a>, and <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/ekd/008007/8349.html#:%7E:text=The%20subsidy%20is%20set%20to,120%20per%2050%20kg%20sacks.">Sudan</a> -— are providing bread subsidies to poor communities to alleviate hunger and malnutrition.</p>
<p>Although wheat is consumed widely across the African continent, crop yields are relatively low compared to major producing wheat regions, especially in the Global North. Reasons range from extreme weather conditions to water scarcity, poor soil quality and poor irrigation systems. </p>
<p>As a result, African nations rely on imports to meet the demand and need for wheat. For instance, during the 2020/2021 trade year, African imports of wheat reached <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1294190/production-volume-of-wheat-in-africa/">54.8 million metric tons</a>, whereas the continental production of wheat amounted to <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1294190/production-volume-of-wheat-in-africa/">25.7 million metric tons</a>. </p>
<h2>Urgent lessons</h2>
<p>The situation highlights the need for African countries to diversify their wheat imports and invest in expanding domestic production capacity. </p>
<p>For example, Egypt —- which relies on Russian and Ukrainian wheat imports as the world’s <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2028901/business-economy">largest importer of the crop</a> —- will rely on its wheat reserves which is estimated to last until the end of 2022. The hope is that it will be able to secure other suppliers by then. If Egypt fails to secure other wheat imports, sharp spikes in the cost of wheat could severely affect the Egyptian government’s ability to keep bread prices at their current subsidised level. </p>
<p>Egyptian history presents its current government with a warning of what to expect if bread prices continue to increase. In 1977, an attempt by then-president Anwar Sadat to increase bread prices set off <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/egyptians-riot-in-the-streets-in-1977/">deadly riots</a> which didn’t subside until the decision was rescinded. Coupled with the country’s historic protests associated with the Arab Spring, such warnings are hard to dismiss.</p>
<p>National, regional and continental organisations have recognised the pressing need for Africa to increase its wheat production to avoid these scenarios. </p>
<p>In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, the African Development Bank <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/lender-has-1-billion-plan-wean-africa-russian-wheat-50087">is on a mission</a> to raise US$1 billion to assist 40 million African farmers to use climate-resilient technologies and to increase their yields of heat-tolerant wheat varieties and other crops. </p>
<h2>Harsh truths</h2>
<p>When it came to voting on the two UN General Assembly resolutions demanding Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine, just a little over half of the African votes was in favour of Ukraine, while others abstained or voted against the resolutions. Most reports on Africa’s divided vote focus on military and political alliances, as well as political ideological leanings. The power of food -– and specifically wheat —- has been largely overlooked.</p>
<p>Aside from trying to figure out the motivations for how African countries voted at the UN, the Russia-Ukraine crisis has, more importantly, shown that several African countries need to diversify wheat imports and invest in becoming self-sufficient. This has to be done with some urgency to protect themselves against global shocks – whatever their origin.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181173/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The sourcing of wheat has factored into the political and strategic decisions and security of many countries.Mandira Bagwandeen, Senior Research Fellow, The Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape TownNoncedo Vutula, Senior research fellow at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1763252022-02-04T13:09:21Z2022-02-04T13:09:21ZWant to master Wordle? Here’s the best strategy for your first guess<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444360/original/file-20220203-17-18vqztc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3514%2C2334&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are 2,315 five-letter words in Wordle's dictionary.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/wordle-game-displayed-on-a-phone-and-a-laptop-screens-is-news-photo/1237931947?adppopup=true">Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Wordle has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/crosswords/nyt-wordle-purchase.html">skyrocketed in popularity</a>, multiple media outlets <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2022/01/wordle-how-to-win-strategy-crossword-experts.html">have published articles</a> <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/wordle-has-tur">that explore the best word</a> to use as your initial guess. </p>
<p>Often the authors of these pieces theorize that the word ought to be one that uses as many vowels as possible, contains letters that frequently appear in English or possesses features that regularly occur in the language.</p>
<p>Well, my finance students and I decided to tackle this question in as definitive a manner as possible by determining the optimal first word to play in Wordle. </p>
<p>Our analysis actually ran through all possible combinations of five-letter words and ran simulations across all possible iterations – over 1 million of them – to figure out the best starting strategy.</p>
<h2>A ‘tried’ and true approach</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.cnet.com/how-to/wordle-explained-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-viral-word-game/">In Wordle</a>, players have six attempts to guess a five-letter word. Each time the player makes a guess, they learn whether each letter is correct and in the right location, appears in the word in another location or isn’t in the word at all.</p>
<p>Players can have different approaches. Some might simply want to solve the word, even if it takes six tries. Others try to do it in as a few guesses as possible.</p>
<p>Based on our analysis, if you’re trying to win in as few guesses as possible, the top three words to go with are “slice,” “tried” and “crane.” Using any of these three words will produce an average number of word attempts of 3.90, 3.92, and 3.92, respectively, if you’re using an optimal strategy to play (more on that later).</p>
<p><iframe id="LTbA9" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LTbA9/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>If, on the other hand, you’re simply trying to win within the allotted six guesses, the top three words to play are “adept,” “clamp” and “plaid.” Using any of these three words will yield an average success rate in winning the game of 98.79%, 98.75%, and 98.75%, respectively, if you’re playing the optimal strategy.</p>
<p><iframe id="MuBec" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MuBec/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>And herein lies the first interesting distinction between playing to win and playing to win in as few guesses as possible. </p>
<p>If you’re playing to win in the allotted six guesses, it appears best to play a word that has just one vowel and four consonants in it, as six out of the top 10 words have just one vowel. But if you’re playing to win in as few guesses as possible, it’s best to play a word that has two vowels and three consonants: All of the top 10 have two vowels.</p>
<h2>Inside the simulations</h2>
<p>Other researchers, <a href="https://theconversation.com/wordle-the-best-word-to-start-the-game-according-to-a-language-researcher-175114">such as David Sidhu at University College London</a>, have tried to determine the “best first word” from a linguistic perspective. In these efforts, the best selection is decided by how often certain letters appear in the English language, or the frequency of where these letters are located in five-letter words. </p>
<p>While these approaches are noble, our analysis extends beyond them by actually performing simulations across all possible word options to find the best type of word to play first.</p>
<p>To perform this analysis, two of my students, Tao Wei and Kanwal Ahmad, constructed a program that went through all <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2022/01/wordle-how-to-win-strategy-crossword-experts.html">2,315 official five-letter words</a> in Wordle’s dictionary. The program attempted each possible word as a first guess and ran simulations across all possible end word solutions, checking how long each attempt would take to guess the correct end word – 1,692,265 total simulations. </p>
<p>We then averaged all attempts for each word to see how many guesses one could expect to make to get to the correct end word. </p>
<p>To perform this massive simulation requires a method for picking the optimal word on the second guess, third guess and so on. </p>
<p>To give yourself the best odds on each ensuing guess, it’s important to select letters that are most likely to appear in each position. So the program used the list of 2,315 total words to determine the frequency at which each letter appears. </p>
<p>After receiving the results from the previous guess, the program filtered down the possible words to those that meet the criteria. Say the first guess were “bloke,” and L and E were in the correct position, while B, O and K didn’t appear in the solution. The program would then narrow down the list of possible words to those like “flume” and “slate.”</p>
<p>The program then assigns a score to each word in this list, where the score is the sum of the frequency of its letters. The word “slate,” for example, has a score of 37% because the letter “S” appears 5% of the time in the full list, while the letter appears “A” 8% of the time, and so on. The word with the highest score is then submitted as the next guess.</p>
<p>Running this simulation over all possible first guesses and against all possible solutions yielded the results.</p>
<p>But maybe you don’t want to start with the same word every time you play. In that case – and if you want to win with the fewest guesses – try making sure your first guess has two vowels, with one of them at the end of the word.</p>
<p>If you’re just looking to win within the allotted six guesses, then you may want to consider a word with fewer vowels – and definitely a word that ends in a consonant.</p>
<p>Hopefully our mathematical approach to Wordle hasn’t sucked all the joy out of the game. At the very least, it’ll give you a leg up if you decide to put a friendly wager on tomorrow’s game.</p>
<p>[<em>Get fascinating science, health and technology news.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=science&source=inline-science-fascinating">Sign up for The Conversation’s weekly science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176325/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Derek Horstmeyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whether you want to win with as few guesses as possible, or you just want to figure out the right word before running out of turns, a scholar offers some tips.Derek Horstmeyer, Professor of Finance, George Mason UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1745622022-01-10T16:08:25Z2022-01-10T16:08:25ZCanada isn’t responding with foresight when it comes to COVID-19<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439834/original/file-20220107-17-itjj48.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C8006%2C5726&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gives a thumbs up signal after receiving his COVID-19 vaccine booster shot at a pharmacy in Ottawa on Jan. 4, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick </span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canada-isn-t-responding-with-foresight-when-it-comes-to-covid-19" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Global problems require global solutions. With COVID-19, however, we’re seeing that our governance mechanisms don’t drive global solutions even when our lives depend on it.</p>
<p>This is a problem because it will lead to diminishing trust in public institutions and a dragged-out pandemic response, as we fail to prevent deaths, long-term disability and lasting economic hardship of millions.</p>
<p>To end this pandemic, Canada must act with foresight, but what does that mean?</p>
<h2>Simple won’t cut it</h2>
<p>Earlier this month, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invited Canadians to, once again, get vaccinated: get your first shot, your second shot, your booster, vaccinate your children, and let’s get out of this pandemic for good, he said.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1477740908863012872"}"></div></p>
<p>The problem is, we alone will not end this pandemic.</p>
<p>In the current global landscape, the virus outsmarted us. Global vaccine roll-out has been inequitable: <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/10/1052078529/why-low-income-countries-are-so-short-on-covid-vaccines-hint-its-not-boosters">less than three per cent</a> of people in low-income countries have been vaccinated as the richest countries hoard vaccines, and <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2021/10/covid-19-time-for-countries-blocking-trips-waiver-to-support-lifting-of-restrictions-2/">refuse to support waivers</a> on COVID-19 vaccine patent rights or to keep pharmaceutical <a href="https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/company-news/pfizer-latin-american-vaccine/">companies from bullying</a> middle- and lower-income countries.</p>
<p>As scientists warned, COVID-19 kept mutating, and the latest variant in the series — Omicron — <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-49-Omicron/">largely escapes our immune resistance</a>. Enter school closures, preventable deaths, chronic diseases, social isolation, anxiety, depression and so on.</p>
<p>But the answer is <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-covid-19-boosters-ethical-with-half-the-world-waiting-for-a-first-shot-a-bioethicist-weighs-in-167606">not to boycott boosters out of guilt</a>, while globally, millions are waiting on their first dose. The sooner we all get our shot, the easier it will be to advocate for Canada and other countries to stop vaccine hoarding.</p>
<p>By March, G7 countries will have <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/rich-countries-have-received-more-vaccines-run-christmas-african-countries-have-all">1.4 billion surplus vaccine doses</a> and we have seen our governments <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/covid-19-vaccine-doses-waste-1.6130768">let them expire</a> before.</p>
<p>This is not an issue of national versus global interest. We need a plan that encompasses both. Right now, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/14/g-7-summit-why-economists-and-activists-are-disappointed-over-pledges.html">there is no such plan</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of people walk two by two down a winding staircase. At the bottom of the stair case are seven flags representing each of the G7 countries." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439511/original/file-20220105-25-dpozwh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439511/original/file-20220105-25-dpozwh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439511/original/file-20220105-25-dpozwh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439511/original/file-20220105-25-dpozwh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439511/original/file-20220105-25-dpozwh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439511/original/file-20220105-25-dpozwh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439511/original/file-20220105-25-dpozwh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">G7 foreign ministers arrive at the Museum of Liverpool in England on Dec. 11, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Phil Noble/Pool via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What about international cooperation?</h2>
<p>The G7 Summit in June 2021 ended with leaders of the seven richest countries promising to deliver <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-donation-pledges-wont-fill-global-covid-19-vaccine-shortfalls-heres-why-168789">an inadequate portion of vaccines</a> to countries without supply — a promise on which they managed to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/oct/21/only-14-of-promised-covid-vaccine-doses-reach-poorest-nations">under-deliver</a>.</p>
<p>The announced measures included no future scenario mapping, no international mechanisms of collaboration that go beyond the ineffective charity models. This means we are failing to account for the challenges we can assume are ahead of us and failing to co-ordinate with our global partners on solving them.</p>
<p>Our leaders returned from the summit asking us to basically keep throwing buckets of water at a raging forest fire. As the fire spread, we grew frustrated with each other for not doing enough.</p>
<p>A different model, one based on collaboration, is possible.</p>
<p>Argentina, Mexico, Bolivia, Cuba, Venezuela and political leaders across 20 countries, health experts and vaccine manufacturers organized <a href="https://progressive.international/wire/2021-06-21-progressive-international-hails-the-beginning-of-a-new-international-health-order-as-global-south-states-commit-to-share-covid-19-vaccine-technology-and-production/en/">an alternative summit</a>, triggering agreements of scientific and economic collaboration.</p>
<p>Cuba developed its own <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03470-x">highly effective vaccine</a> and <a href="https://jacobinmag.com/2021/11/cuban-covid-vaccine-pandemic-biotech-research">committed to</a> equitable distribution, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/28/cuba-begins-commercial-exports-of-its-covid-19-vaccines">with exports</a> to Vietnam and Venezuela in progress.</p>
<p>Pediatrician Peter Hotez and his team at Texas Children’s Hospital developed a vaccine <a href="https://www.texaschildrens.org/about-us/news/releases/texas-childrens-hospital-and-baylor-college-medicine-host-signing-ceremony-biofarma-and-indonesian">produced in India and Indonesia</a>, and are sharing patents, technology and making partnerships with <a href="https://www.bcm.edu/news/baylor-college-of-medicine-and-texas-childrens-hospital-collaborate-with-incepta-vaccine-ltd-to-develop-a-covid-19-vaccine-for-bangladesh">the two countries, Bangladesh</a> and <a href="https://www.bcm.edu/news/baylor-tch-and-immunitybio-collaborate-for-covid-19-vaccine-for-africa">South Africa</a> with the goal of distribution across sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<p>The issue is, as <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1477455370578763788">Dr. Hotez notes</a>, G7 countries and global policy makers are not helping.</p>
<h2>The fundamental problem with Canada’s COVID response</h2>
<p>Currently, the COVID-19 response is backwards: the solutions are global yet policy-makers and governments are focused on reactive national and sub-national policies.</p>
<p>Global mechanisms (like <a href="https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax">the COVAX initiative</a>) lack, as United Nations Secretary General <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/5dpng5/our-multilateralism-has-no-teeth-why-its-incredibly-difficult-for-the-un-to-make-real-change">António Guterres admitted</a>, teeth — with limited funding and decision-making resources.</p>
<p>In panic and fear, the world’s richest countries replaced foresight and strategic planning with medieval tactics: put up the trenches, hoard resources, isolate the vulnerable, hold down the fort … too bad the enemy is airborne.</p>
<p>Places like Canada <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/april-2020/how-well-is-canadas-intergovernmental-system-handling-the-crisis/">struggle with co-ordination</a> between provincial and federal governments. <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2021/coping-with-covid-requires-a-return-to-co-operative-federalism/">Outdated approaches to federalism</a> have resulted in insufficient collaboration around the procurement of essential goods and equipment, poor policy co-ordination (like travel and health policies), incoherent province-to-province health measures, inconsistent public messaging, and an isolationist view that disregards the consequences of global inaction.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sign reads 'gardez vos distances' or 'keep your distance' on the fence of a school yard." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439512/original/file-20220105-15-11f2p1d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439512/original/file-20220105-15-11f2p1d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439512/original/file-20220105-15-11f2p1d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439512/original/file-20220105-15-11f2p1d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439512/original/file-20220105-15-11f2p1d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439512/original/file-20220105-15-11f2p1d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439512/original/file-20220105-15-11f2p1d.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A playground at a Nova Scotia school sits empty on Jan. 5, 2022. N.S. students are expected to return to class on Jan. 17.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Switching the script</h2>
<p>As we enter 2022 with closed schools, overwhelmed hospitals and an isolated, tired and scared population we have a choice. We can keep blaming each other or act with fortitude and foresight. Canada’s public should listen to health experts, but also demand a coherent future-oriented strategy.</p>
<p>Our strategies must account for global, national and regional agendas. They must address risks and opportunities across public health, trade, international relations, infrastructure, social safety nets and public narratives. And methods to guide this work already exist.</p>
<p>Labelled as foresight, these include innovative models for strategic planning based on future-oriented risk and opportunity mapping, scenario-testing, solution-building and policy-making. Research groups (like the <a href="http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/">Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies</a> or the <a href="https://slab.ocadu.ca/">Futures of Social Innovation Lab at the Ontario College of Art and Design University</a>), the <a href="https://unsdg.un.org/resources/applying-foresight-and-alternative-futures-united-nations-development-assistance">UN</a> are all using these approaches.</p>
<p>Countries around the world, from small island states like Cape Verde and Mauritius to global leaders in innovation like Rwanda and <a href="https://oecd-opsi.org/innovations/the-scenario-exploration-system/">the European Union</a> have all been investing in foresight capacity.</p>
<p>Canada should leverage foresight to strengthen its federal model and the COVID-19 response. Combining existing and the emerging data, exploring new possible pathways, addressing existing but also future risks and identifying new forms of partnerships is urgent.</p>
<p>This will require prioritizing public health over profits, upholding lived experiences, trusting technical experts and remaining adaptive. Canada’s strategy must account for federal and national mandates but also the importance of global engagement. Without it, we will be living on borrowed time, waiting for a new variant, a new booster, a new quick fix.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174562/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gloria Novovic has previously worked with Cooperation Canada and consults for Canada's international cooperation sector. Her research on global governance has been funded by the Ontario Trillium Foundation, the International Development Research Centre of Canada, and the Ontario Trillium Foundation. </span></em></p>Canada’s strategy must include global engagement. Without it, we will be living on borrowed time, waiting for a new variant, a new booster, a new quick fix.Gloria Novovic, PhD Researcher, Grounded and Engaged Theory Lab, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1455662020-10-07T15:01:04Z2020-10-07T15:01:04ZGood deeds can influence voters: an election strategy for parties in Ghana to try<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359970/original/file-20200925-16-1txmjyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ghanaian voters are among the most sophisticated in sub-Saharan Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kwame Amo/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ghana’s elections are set down for December. That means political parties and candidates are looking for strategies to influence voters. Some <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15228916.2010.508999">academics</a> have focused on what drives potential voters away. These are factors like internal disharmony, the neglect of party “foot soldiers”, and political amateurism. Then there’s what draws them in, like the use of traditional and digital marketing strategies.</p>
<p>But there may be another way to influence voter decisions: practising political social responsibility. By this we mean voluntary action taken by political parties and candidates to fulfil their commitment to promoting societal wellbeing. These initiatives would not be supported by government resources. </p>
<p>This concept has a close relation in the world of business, where there seems to be <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292000246_Corporate_social_responsibility_and_competitiveness">an argument</a> that corporate social responsibility could play a role in promoting organisational competitiveness. Corporate social responsibility could be linked, for instance, to improved corporate reputation and even growth in sales. </p>
<p>We undertook a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10495142.2020.1798850">study</a> to assess whether the business case for corporate social responsibility is applicable in the political context. We propose viewing political parties as businesses. They must win customers (voters). Like businesses, they can gain competitive advantage through marketing strategies that highlight social responsibility. The strategy enhances voter satisfaction, preference and intentions.</p>
<p>We developed a scenario of a hypothetical political party and asked 173 voters how they would respond to its social responsibility initiatives. We also used a combination of content analysis and quantitative research methods. </p>
<h2>Political social responsibility</h2>
<p>Political social responsibility could take a number of forms. One could involve interventions to support political groups or individuals. Another could be an exchange of money or services for votes. Exchanges could occur during rallies, house visits and town hall meetings. Or it could take the form of financial incentives for party volunteers. </p>
<p>In our study, however, we focused on three hypothetical initiatives. First, investment in a cause; second, involvement in the local community; and, finally, concern for the environment. </p>
<p>We asked voters questions like: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>What is the responsibility of political parties or candidates?
How can political parties be responsible?
Are there some challenges with political parties engaging in social responsibility? </p>
</blockquote>
<p>We also conducted an online content analysis of party activities. </p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>The content analysis revealed that political parties and candidates in Ghana often undertake some form of social responsibility initiative. For instance, the governing New Patriotic Party’s US branch <a href="https://www.npp-usa.org/npp-usa-donates-ghc130000-to-ghana-covid-19-trust-fund-and-ghana-embassy-covid-fund/">donated</a> money to the Ghana COVID-19 Trust Fund. An opposition member of parliament, meanwhile, <a href="https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/general-news/ghana-news-okudzeto-ablakwa-donates-towards-covid-19.html">donated</a> COVID-19 relief items to a hospital.</p>
<p>Our analysis showed that political actors who engage in social responsibility initiatives will attract satisfied voters. Satisfied voters will recommend a party to friends and family. They will also commit to voting for the parties and their candidates.</p>
<p>The parties that are usually associated with social welfare are leftist or socialist. But our findings show that political social responsibility has benefits for parties and candidates across the political spectrum. This makes it a valuable resource, no matter a party’s politics.</p>
<p>We also found that philanthropy is one of Ghana’s most dominant forms of social responsibility. Voters may associate social causes with a party or candidate. Social responsibility can also help to build a political brand.<br>
The voters in our study formed voting intentions based on their satisfaction with a party’s past social responsibility performance. We conclude from this that it’s not enough to perform these activities. A party must also remind the electorate about these activities. This requires strong and strategic communication programmes.</p>
<h2>How to improve political marketing</h2>
<p>So, how might political parties incorporate our findings and their implications?</p>
<p>First, parties should consider conducting baseline studies of how voters perceive their current social responsibility profiles. As they deploy programmes to build and win voter confidence, they should regularly check through studies whether these are having the desired effect.</p>
<p>Then they need to hit the streets. This means getting involved in, for instance, environmental causes and engaging with their local communities. This work must happen at a party level, of course. But individual candidates should be out there, too. This will foster voter affinity. </p>
<p>Political parties’ marketing should incorporate social responsibility initiatives at a national, regional and local level. </p>
<p>We also propose that parties should seek funding from corporate entities that share the same social concerns. In the US, for instance, research has shown that Democratic-leaning firms spend, on average, an extra $18 million per year on corporate social responsibility relative to Republican-leaning firms. </p>
<p>The Democratic Party also places more <a href="https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2013/12/30/politics-and-corporate-social-responsibility/">emphasis</a> on issues such as environmental protection, nondiscrimination laws and affirmative action, and helping the poor and disadvantaged. </p>
<p>Political parties should choose distinctive social responsibility initiatives that align with their philosophical positions. This will help them win over undecided voters while also consolidating support from their core electoral base.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Political social responsibility has benefits for parties and candidates across the political spectrum.Robert E. Hinson, Acting Director, Institutional Advancement, University of Ghana, University of GhanaIbn Kailan Abdul-Hamid, Lecturer & Coordinator, University of Professional Studies AccraJohn Paul Basewe Kosiba, Lecturer, Marketing, University of Professional Studies AccraKojo Kakra Twum, Post Doctoral Researcher, Presbyterian University CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1433562020-07-27T16:03:43Z2020-07-27T16:03:43ZCOVID-19 exposes weaknesses in Kenya’s healthcare system. And what can be done<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349325/original/file-20200724-33-1qvn0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A nurse participates in the drill to test their system capabilities for the COVID-19 coronavirus mass patients influx at the Aga Khan University Hospital in Nairobi.</span> </figcaption></figure><p><em>There are <a href="https://www.nation.co.ke/kenya/news/top-hospitals-running-out-of-icu-beds-covid-19--1444712">reports</a> that Kenya’s hospital beds are filling up because of a surge in COVID-19 patients. This highlights concerns since the start of the pandemic, that the health systems of many African countries would quickly become overwhelmed. Moina Spooner from The Conversation Africa asked Professors Abdu Mohiddin and Marleen Temmerman to explain what must be done.</em></p>
<p><strong>What are the major deficiencies in Kenya’s healthcare system?</strong></p>
<p>Kenya’s healthcare system is made up of several systems: public, private and faith-based or NGO. <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2020-07-07-access-to-health-care-services-has-improved-report/">About</a> 48% are public and operate under the Ministry of Health, 41% are in the private sector, 8% are faith-based health services, and 3% are run by NGOs.</p>
<p>Healthcare in public hospitals is free for some services, such as maternity care, and for those with national health insurance, in-patient treatment is free. Healthcare provided by private hospitals, faith-based institutions or NGOs usually comes at a cost and charges will vary.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.healthpolicyplus.com/ns/pubs/11323-11587_KenyaHealthFinancingSystemAssessment.pdf">About</a> 20% of Kenyans have some form of health insurance coverage, including national health insurance, but this varies by region. <a href="http://www.healthpolicyplus.com/ns/pubs/11323-11587_KenyaHealthFinancingSystemAssessment.pdf">For instance</a>, 41% of residents in Nairobi have cover, while under 3% will have cover in marginalised rural areas such as Wajir and West Pokot.</p>
<p>In the public sector, the 47 <a href="https://www.nation.co.ke/kenya/news/covid-19-what-uhuru-told-governors-at-coronavirus-summit-1906894">county governments</a> deal with service provision at the local level, while the national level is concerned with policy and the referral hospitals. </p>
<p>Taking all the healthcare systems in Kenya together, the fundamental shortcoming is the mismatch between needs and the available care, in particular specialist care and the workforce – from doctors to technicians – needed to run it. </p>
<p>For instance, a <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29191247/">nationwide study</a> found major shortages in chest specialists, hospital physicians and emergency care nurses. An assessment of health facilities in 2018 also <a href="https://www.health.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/KHFA-2018-19-Popular-version-report-Final-.pdf">reported that</a> just 12% had the standard items needed to prevent infections, such as gloves, infectious waste storage and disinfectant. Of the hospitals that offer emergency breathing intervention services, 78% offered administration of oxygen and 23% had invasive mechanical ventilation.</p>
<p>The mismatch between available care and needs manifests in two main ways: geographically and economically.</p>
<p>Geographically, there’s a huge divide between what’s available in rural areas and urban areas. Most Kenyans, <a href="https://kenyanwallstreet.com/census-2019-datashows-kenya-has-a-youthful-rural-population/">about 70%</a> of the population, live in rural areas. They mostly rely on community health volunteers and health facilities that are staffed by nurses who provide primary health care services like immunisation. Sub-county hospitals provide more services and a few medical doctors are available.</p>
<p>Economically, those who are poorer or uninsured are less able to access what is available. If they can access healthcare, <a href="https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/6/e001809">they risk</a> huge bills which can push them into poverty. </p>
<p>Another challenge is corruption. This manifests dangerously in various ways throughout the system. For instance, a major concern is the cartels within the Ministry of Health which <a href="https://www.nation.co.ke/kenya/news/politics/kagwe-transfers-30-officers-in-battle-against-cartels-288426">are accused</a> of colluding to steal public funds. Such theft weakens health institutions and diverts valuable time and attention to its mitigation. </p>
<p>In addition, some officials from the main supplier of medical goods – Kenya Medical Supplies Agency – <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001375820/anti-graft-agency-probes-illegal-dealings-at-kemsa">are under</a> investigation for awarding protective equipment tenders irregularly.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the major challenge is that this is a healthcare system where most people <a href="https://www.ieakenya.or.ke/number_of_the_week/kenyaa-s-comparison-of-out-of-pocket-expenditure-on-health-with-its-peers">are able</a> to access basic care but they face the barrier of potentially <a href="https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/6/e001809">catastrophic</a> fees.</p>
<p><strong>What has contributed to this?</strong></p>
<p>Over many years health has not had the political priority it needs with attendant impacts on investment, strategic thinking and planning. </p>
<p>Two examples show this:</p>
<p>First, Kenya’s government health expenditure isn’t enough. Over the last two decades, it <a href="https://www.who.int/health_financing/documents/public-financing-africa/en/">has averaged</a> about half the <a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/249527/WHO-HIS-HGF-Tech.Report-16.2-eng.pdf;jsessionid=147923A8321E6650890571BD9D2128C8?sequence=1">Abuja declaration’s</a> target of at least 15% of national budgets. This was set in 2001 by African Union heads of state. </p>
<p>Secondly, the local and national health systems aren’t resilient to shocks. For instance, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nurses-strike-shows-poor-management-of-health-care-in-kenya-86473">2017 national strike</a> by health care workers caused major nationwide service disruptions and the closure of several facilities. </p>
<p><strong>How will the COVID-19 pandemic heighten these challenges and what is the government doing to address them?</strong></p>
<p>Overall, Kenya faces huge coordination and planning challenges between all health systems, at the local and national level. For instance, while the national government is showing leadership with COVID-19 taskforces on mitigation measures and communication, it’s not being uniformly implemented at the county level. </p>
<p>There’s also a lack of information on what is or isn’t working. This includes <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31601-9/fulltext">data on</a> whether national directives – such as curfews and lockdowns – have been effective in breaking transmission.</p>
<p>In addition to this, there’s a huge lack of resources. For this pandemic, intensive care beds and ventilators are critical. But <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236308">recent studies</a> show that while Kenya has 537 intensive care beds, it has only 256 ventilators. </p>
<p>Many counties simply don’t have specialist equipment. <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236308">Only 22</a> out of the 47 counties have at least one intensive care unit. Hundreds more units and ventilators are needed as well as the staff to run them. </p>
<p>In addition there is the stress to the system when staff get sick or have to go into quarantine. The staffing challenges are already an issue so this is a serious concern. </p>
<p>The government is taking certain steps to address these challenges. </p>
<p>It <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/health/article/2001379598/covid-19-pushes-ministry-budget-beyond-sh83b">recently increased</a> health spending from Ksh73 billion (about US$678 million) to Ksh83 billion (about US$771 million) this year and <a href="https://www.kbc.co.ke/govt-launches-primary-health-care-strategic-framework/">reiterated</a> its commitment to universal health coverage – though it’s not clear how far we are off this. One firm positive step is that <a href="https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2020/07/govt-says-public-hospitals-not-charging-for-covid-treatment/">treatment for</a> COVID-19 in government hospitals is currently now free.</p>
<p>Funding all of this will, it appears, come from international donors, government borrowing and the reopening of the economy to improve tax revenues and sustainability. </p>
<p>Healthcare workers have been concerned about the availability and quality of personal protective equipment such as protective clothing, helmets and goggles. Threats of strike action <a href="https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2020/05/health-ministry-says-talks-underway-to-avert-looming-strike-by-health-workers/">have been issued</a> and the government responded with talks to avert them. But there are concerns over substandard items and fakes due to corruption. </p>
<p><strong>What else needs to be done?</strong></p>
<p>Given the constraints the government faces in resources, preventing the spread of the virus and effective use of existing resources are critical. This includes firm commitments, and clear actions, by the country’s leaders that they’re taking preventative measures such as wearing masks and social distancing.</p>
<p>Leaders must also ensure that the regulations are enforced and there must be clear campaigns to deal with myths. </p>
<p>There must be better coordination between the government, private and faith or NGO institutions. This is particularly vital when it comes to specialist care. Coordination is happening but depends a lot on counties, which vary in their capacity. </p>
<p>Stakeholders, such as private facilities, are usually willing to work with the government <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001369339/private-hospitals-are-ailing-due-to-covid-19">provided</a> the issues of delayed payments can be remedied.</p>
<p>In addition, there must be more research on how the pandemic is spreading in Kenya and any new or appropriate technologies needed to mitigate and treat it. More data is also needed on COVID-19’s impact on health systems and society. </p>
<p>Some data are announced daily but detailed data are needed – for instance specific measures on how the virus is spread or information on how well the healthcare system is doing at all levels, such as length of stay in intensive care units, effectiveness of contact tracing teams or numbers of deaths in vulnerable communities. </p>
<p>Finally there are many routine healthcare system activities that are not happening or have been reduced. These include antenatal care, deliveries and immunisations. Mitigation actions and planning are urgently needed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143356/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most Kenyans are able to access basic care but face the barrier of potentially catastrophic fees.Abdu Mohiddin, Assistant Professor, Aga Khan University Marleen Temmerman, Director of the Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health and Chair of the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology (OB/GYN), Aga Khan University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1322512020-02-26T03:10:22Z2020-02-26T03:10:22ZWhat is a rare disease? It’s not as simple as it sounds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317031/original/file-20200225-24655-1rtf0vm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5610%2C3743&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you have a rare disease, you may be the only person in Australia with that condition.</p>
<p>You may not know, however, that being diagnosed with a rare disease means you are part of a community of <a href="https://www.rarevoices.org.au/page/15/what-is-a-rare-disease">up to two million Australians</a> with one of these conditions. And more than <a href="https://www.rarediseaseday.org/article/what-is-a-rare-disease">300 million people</a> globally.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-youre-sick-the-support-youll-get-may-depend-on-the-worth-of-your-disease-93955">When you're sick, the support you'll get may depend on the 'worth' of your disease</a>
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<p>Today, health minister Greg Hunt announced Australia will have its first <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/first-national-action-plan-for-rare-diseases">National Strategic Action Plan</a> for rare diseases.</p>
<p>This action plan will harness the power of rare disease advocates, patients and families, clinicians, researchers, peak bodies, industry and government to improve care for people with rare diseases.</p>
<h2>What is a rare disease?</h2>
<p>A rare disease is one that is very uncommon. The most widely accepted definition stipulates a rare disease affects fewer than <a href="https://www.orpha.net/consor/cgi-bin/Education_AboutRareDiseases.php?lng=EN">five in 10,000 people</a>.</p>
<p>Rare diseases are serious, complex, usually chronic, often life-limiting and most have no cure.</p>
<p>We know of <a href="https://rarediseases.info.nih.gov/diseases/pages/31/faqs-about-rare-diseases">about 7,000</a> different rare diseases, most with a genetic origin. Many begin in childhood.</p>
<p>Rare diseases are often progressive — they get worse over time — and can be associated with <a href="https://mckellinstitute.org.au/research/reports/disability-rare-disease/">physical or intellectual disability</a>.</p>
<p>Examples of rare diseases are <a href="https://www.acrf.com.au/support-cancer-research/types-of-cancer/rare-childhood-cancers/">uncommon childhood cancers</a> such as hepatoblastoma (a cancer of the liver), and other better-known conditions like <a href="https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.au/about-cf/what-is-cf">cystic fibrosis</a> and <a href="https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/phenylketonuria">phenylketonuria</a> (a birth defect that causes an amino acid called phenylalanine to build up in the body, and untreated can lead to intellectual disability, seizures and behavioural problems). Both are symptomatic from birth. <a href="https://www.betterhealth.vic.gov.au/health/conditionsandtreatments/huntingtons-disease">Huntington’s disease</a> is another, but only shows symptoms in adulthood, even though it’s inherited.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-cystic-fibrosis-and-how-is-it-treated-59681">Explainer: what is cystic fibrosis and how is it treated?</a>
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<h2>What makes a rare disease so difficult to diagnose and manage?</h2>
<p>For a <a href="https://www.rarevoices.org.au/page/49/personal-stories-list">person living with a rare disease</a>, and the people around them, the journey to obtaining a diagnosis and receiving treatment can be difficult, complex, worrying, confusing and isolating.</p>
<p>Rare diseases are difficult to diagnose because individually they occur so infrequently, and symptoms can be very complex. <a href="https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-017-0622-4">My research</a> and <a href="https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-016-0409-z">another Australian study</a> show it can take years to get the final correct diagnosis. Most health professionals have never diagnosed or cared for a person with <a href="https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/osteogenesis-imperfecta">osteogenesis imperfecta</a>, <a href="https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/fabry-disease">Fabry disease</a> or any other of the 7,000 rare diseases.</p>
<p>Added to this, the onset of symptoms for a rare disease can occur anywhere between birth and adulthood, and diagnostic tests are lacking or difficult to access.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317038/original/file-20200225-24676-9uweq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317038/original/file-20200225-24676-9uweq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317038/original/file-20200225-24676-9uweq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317038/original/file-20200225-24676-9uweq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317038/original/file-20200225-24676-9uweq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317038/original/file-20200225-24676-9uweq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317038/original/file-20200225-24676-9uweq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Rare diseases are often genetic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>But diagnosis is only part of the puzzle. People with rare diseases typically need complex care from large teams of health professionals because with many rare diseases, several body systems are affected. Also, given the often-progressive nature of the condition, care needs can change — sometimes dramatically — over time.</p>
<p>Important questions also arise around life expectancy and what the risks would be if the person with a rare disease was to start a family. Would their children inherit the disease? <a href="https://www.hgsa.org.au/asgc">Genetic counsellors</a> can help with these sorts of questions.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-matter-how-you-fund-it-medical-research-is-a-good-investment-26682">No matter how you fund it, medical research is a good investment</a>
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<p>Further, care is costly to families and to the health system. The cost of providing hospital care to just one child with a rare lung disorder who eventually needed a lung transplant amounted to almost <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3994663/">A$1 million</a> before the child’s ninth birthday.</p>
<p>The market for drugs for rare diseases, often called “<a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/publication/orphan-drug-designation">orphan drugs</a>”, is small. Although governments incentivise the pharmaceutical industry to develop orphan drugs, there are no effective drug treatments for most rare diseases.</p>
<p>In recognition that rare cancers and rare diseases traditionally lose out to more common diseases in terms of research, additional targeted funding has <a href="https://researchaustralia.org/research-australia-welcomes-additional-rare-cancers-rare-diseases-research/">recently been allocated</a> to boost research in Australia. In 2019 the <a href="https://www.nhmrc.gov.au/funding/find-funding/mrff-clinical-trials-activity-rcrdun-initiative-2019-rare-cancers-rare-diseases-and-unmet-need-grant-opportunity">NHMRC and the Medical Research Future Fund</a> pledged A$15 million over five years for rare cancers, rare diseases and unmet need. </p>
<p>While a positive step, we are still lagging behind other countries. The United States, for example, spent <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3707172/">US$3.5 billion</a> (A$5.3 billion) on rare disease research in 2011.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317039/original/file-20200225-24701-1kf5f6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317039/original/file-20200225-24701-1kf5f6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317039/original/file-20200225-24701-1kf5f6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317039/original/file-20200225-24701-1kf5f6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317039/original/file-20200225-24701-1kf5f6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317039/original/file-20200225-24701-1kf5f6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317039/original/file-20200225-24701-1kf5f6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Rare diseases commonly progress over time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>What does the future look like?</h2>
<p>The action plan recognises people with a rare disease and their right to equitable access to health and support services, timely and accurate diagnosis and the best available treatments. It aims to increase rare disease awareness and education, enhance care and support, and drive research and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/imj.13528">data collection</a>.</p>
<p>Its roll out should lead to better outcomes for people with rare diseases and less worry and frustration for families. For example, access to care coordinators or care navigators could help guide people and families through our often-fragmented health, disability and social care systems.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/personalised-medicine-has-obvious-benefits-but-has-anyone-thought-about-the-issues-59158">Personalised medicine has obvious benefits but has anyone thought about the issues?</a>
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<p>Recent advances in personalised medicine, where a person’s specific genomic make-up could be used to tailor specific medicines for that person’s particular disease, holds much promise for people with rare diseases in the future. </p>
<p>Genetic testing for critically ill babies and children is already resulting in <a href="https://insightplus.mja.com.au/2019/11/delivering-precision-paediatric-medicine-through-genomics/">faster diagnosis and treatment</a> of rare diseases. </p>
<p>The action plan aims to build on and support the sustainability of these important developments.</p>
<p><em>If you or a family member has a rare disease, and you’d like more information, the <a href="https://www.rarevoices.org.au">Rare Voices Australia website</a> is a good place to start.</em></p>
<p><em>Nicole Millis, CEO of Rare Voices Australia, co-authored this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132251/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yvonne Zurynski receives funding from NHMRC, ARC, The Sax Institute. </span></em></p>A rare disease is one that affects less that five in 10,000 people. There are about 7,000 known rare diseases.Yvonne Zurynski, Associate Professor of Health System Sustainability, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1162242019-04-30T10:45:25Z2019-04-30T10:45:25ZCan James Holzhauer be stopped? A former ‘Jeopardy!’ champion weighs in<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271556/original/file-20190429-194606-gzfj5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=64%2C39%2C1056%2C628&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The sports gambler from Las Vegas has dominated the game like no one else in its 35-year history.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.jeopardy.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_960_/public/2019-04/james_1600x900.jpg?itok=KDThUg8Z">Jeopardy Productions</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1997, fresh out of graduate school, underemployed and watching a lot of television, I realized I was pretty good at “Jeopardy!” </p>
<p>I decided to try out. After a couple tests, interviews, and months of waiting, I was called in, pushed onto a soundstage in Culver City – and won more money in two tape days than I had made in the previous two years, plus two Chevy Camaros. Before 2003, five-time champions were retired with such automotive parting gifts and invited back to play in the annual Tournament of Champions. </p>
<p>During that first run and a later “Ultimate Tournament,” I played the seven-time champion who held the record for the longest winning streak before Ken Jennings, along with three eventual or past winners of the Tournament of Champions. I won all but one of those games. In total, <a href="https://www.j-archive.com/showplayerstats.php?player_id=417">my Jeopardy resume spans 10 games, with eight wins and two tournament losses</a>. </p>
<p>But James Holzhauer is in another league. </p>
<p>The sports gambler from Las Vegas has dominated the game like no one else in its 35-year history. His wins are so lopsided that he’s rendered all but two of his 36 competitors incapable of threatening him in Final Jeopardy. <a href="http://www.j-archive.com/showplayerstats.php?player_id=12600">His average winnings</a> are only a bit smaller than <a href="https://www.jeopardy.com/jbuzz/streaker-updates/james-holzhauer-beats-roger-craigs-1-day-record">the one-day record he demolished</a>. Aside from the number of wins, he is <a href="https://thejeopardyfan.com/2019/04/james-holzhauer-ken-jennings-comparison.html">statistically on par</a> with <a href="https://thejeopardyfan.com/statistics/ken-jennings-final-statistics">74-game winner Ken Jennings</a> – except that Holzhauer wins about twice as much money per game, thanks to his aggressive bets. It’s akin to an NBA player averaging 95 points per game. </p>
<p>How is he doing it? </p>
<p>You might think “Jeopardy!” is a contest of pure cogitation, in which the ability to recall trivia is all that matters. It isn’t. Elite success on “Jeopardy!” requires laser-like focus on winning, via strategy and discipline.</p>
<p>Of course, he couldn’t have made it this far without a mastery of U.S. history, world capitals, the periodic table and all the other standards of cultural literacy that are the show’s stock-in-trade.</p>
<p>But his success also depends on his mastery of the Jeopardy signaling device, a pocket-flashlight-sized plastic tube with a button on one end. You might notice many of Holzhauer’s opponents holding their buzzers aloft in frustration. Since the buzzer rewards timing rather than speed – a technician activates them after Trebek finishes reading a question – buzzing while waving it around is as effective as a wild baseball swing. </p>
<p>Holzhauer keeps his buzzer steady on the lectern, with no wasted motion: You can barely notice him ringing in. The more experience he’s gained with the buzzer, the more of an advantage he accrues. Each new opponent needs to get accustomed to the buzzer; by the time they do, the game is already out of hand. </p>
<p>Then there’s the way he plays. Rather than following convention – going vertically from easy answers to harder ones – Holzhauer marches horizontally across the bottom of the board, selecting the $1,000 squares in order to build a bank, and then almost always doubling his money on the first Daily Double he finds. Even with a commanding lead, he keeps playing aggressively, making Daily Double bets that are nearly quadruple the average wager, while making similarly megalithic Final Jeopardy bets.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271558/original/file-20190429-194637-3221bg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271558/original/file-20190429-194637-3221bg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271558/original/file-20190429-194637-3221bg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271558/original/file-20190429-194637-3221bg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271558/original/file-20190429-194637-3221bg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271558/original/file-20190429-194637-3221bg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271558/original/file-20190429-194637-3221bg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Holzhauer wastes no time in going straight for the $1,000 answers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://img.apmcdn.org/3d99c71126409e8d40c8e7190f5fac466606dda6/normal/7d3015-20160918-prince-jeopardy-jpg.jpg">NBC</a></span>
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<p>There have been Jeopardy greats who have had comparable ease recalling answers and who are as good as Holzhauer on the buzzer. Hunting for and betting big on Daily Doubles isn’t a new tactic either – <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-man-who-solved-jeopardy/">the era of big data has nudged Jeopardy play in these directions over the last 15 years</a>. </p>
<p>But Holzhauer is among the best at all three skills, and is by far the most daring when it comes to his betting strategy.</p>
<p>After reflecting on my conventional, cautious gameplay in my first five wins, I bet far more aggressively in my last five tournament games, wagering the maximum on four out of five Daily Doubles. However, in tournament play, I faced veteran champions, who had comparable experience with the buzzer. Controlling all the Daily Doubles as Holzhauer has done against novices wasn’t feasible. He will keep playing until someone beats him. </p>
<p>So how can he be beaten? </p>
<p>What one can do, another can do. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/93e6zf/jeopardys_daily_double_heatmap_oc/">The placement of Daily Doubles is public knowledge</a>, with some squares more likely to contain the bonus than others. Anyone who wants to beat Holzhauer must try to find them first. To do that, they need to challenge his dominance on the buzzer. Contestants should use as much buzzer practice time in rehearsal and during commercial breaks as the producers are willing to give them, and ought to read <a href="https://www.overdrive.com/media/2338104/secrets-of-the-buzzer">the same advice of former champions that Holzhauer used to prepare</a>.</p>
<p>Humor or trash talk during a game may be useless, but it’s worth trying to disrupt his flow. Too often, his opponents seem psychologically broken within minutes. Holzhauer is relentless, and his competitors must keep taking shots, even if they trail.</p>
<p>Players should habituate themselves out of everyday risk aversion, at least for the show: If you’re too cautious, you assure yourself of losing. In his first two games, Holzhauer’s opponents made timid bets, even after seeing him bet it all. Had they been as aggressive, they would have stayed within striking distance. </p>
<p>Clearly, Holzhauer’s confidence has swelled. He isn’t afraid of losing. His opponents need to give him a reason to be.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The wins – and cash – keep piling up.</span></figcaption>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Rooney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There have been ‘Jeopardy!’ greats who can easily answer all the questions, who have mastered the buzzer and who bet big on the Daily Doubles. But Holzhauer possesses an unprecedented level of daring.Michael Rooney, Professor of Philosophy, Pasadena City CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1131072019-03-07T19:06:00Z2019-03-07T19:06:00ZAustralia needs a national plan to face the growing threat of climate disasters<p>We are entering a new era in the security of Australia, not because of terrorism, the rise of China, or even the cybersecurity threat, but because of climate change. If the world warms beyond 2°C, as seems increasingly <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">likely</a>, an era of disasters will be upon us, with profound implications for how we organise ourselves to protect Australian lives, property and economic interests, and our way of life. </p>
<p>The early warning of this era is arriving almost daily, in news reports from across the globe of record-breaking heatwaves, prolonged droughts, massive bushfires, torrential flooding, and record-setting storms.</p>
<p>In a new <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2019-03/SR%20135%20Preparing%20for%20the%20Era%20of%20Disasters.pdf?DWvHu1e1M0UMbiuK5_A8qhOlZJr1z0qD">special report</a> from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, I argue that Australia is not facing up to the pace of these worsening threats. We need a national strategy to deal specifically with climate disaster preparedness.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-are-natural-disasters-on-the-rise-39232">Explainer: are natural disasters on the rise?</a>
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<p>Even without climate change, the impact of these natural hazards is enormous. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-25/heat-stress-deaths-rise-following-australia-day/7113030">More than 500 Australians</a> – roughly the same number who died in the Vietnam War – <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-save-ageing-australians-from-the-heat-greening-our-cities-is-a-good-start-112613">die each year from heat stress alone</a>. The annual economic costs of natural disasters are projected to increase to <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/economics/articles/building-australias-natural-disaster-resilience.html">A$39 billion</a> by 2050. This is roughly equivalent to what the federal government <a href="https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/christopher-pyne/media-releases/budget-2017-18-defence-budget-overview">spends</a> each year on the Australian Defence Force.</p>
<p>Climate change will dramatically increase the frequency and severity of many of these hazards. The number of record hot days in Australia has doubled in the past 50 years, and heatwaves have become longer and <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/9901f6614a2cac7b2b888f55b4dff9cc.pdf">hotter</a>. Extreme fire weather days have increased in recent decades in many regions of Australia. Shorter and more intense rainstorms that trigger flash floods and urban flooding are also becoming <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180730120245.htm">more frequent</a>, and sea level has been <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Browse_by_Topic/ClimateChangeold/theClimate/seaLevels">rising at an accelerated rate</a> since 1993.</p>
<p>Australians are already <a href="https://www.iag.com.au/natural-disasters-are-putting-billions-dollars-risk">exposed</a> to a wide range of the hazards that climate change is amplifying. Almost 4 million of our people, and about 20% of our national economic output, are in areas with high or extreme risk of tropical cyclones. Meanwhile, 2.2 million people and 11% of economic activity are in places with high or extreme risk of bushfire.</p>
<h2>Chronic crisis</h2>
<p>As the frequency of extreme events increases, we are likely to see an increase in events happening at the same time in different parts of the country, or events following hard on the heels of previous ones. Communities may weather the first few setbacks but, in their weakened state, be ultimately overwhelmed. </p>
<p>Large parts of the country that are currently marginally viable for agriculture are increasingly likely to be in chronic crisis, from the compounding impacts of the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/CC_MVSA0146-Fact-Sheet-Drought_V2-FA_High-Res_Single-Pages.pdf">steady rise</a> of temperature, drought and bushfires. </p>
<p>The scale of those impacts will be unprecedented, and the patterns that the hazards take will change in ways that are difficult to predict. Australia’s fire season, for example, is already getting <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/news/2018/prepare-extended-severe-weather-seasons">longer</a>. Other research suggests that tropical <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0227-5">cyclones</a> are forming further from the Equator as the planet warms, putting new areas of eastern Australia in harm’s way.</p>
<p>This emerging era of disasters will increasingly stretch emergency services, undermine community resilience, and escalate economic costs and losses of life. Federal, state and local governments all need to start preparing now for the unprecedented scale of these emerging challenges.</p>
<h2>Queensland as a case study</h2>
<p>Queensland’s recent experience illustrates what could lie ahead for all of Australia. Late last year, a major drought severely affected the state. At that time, a senior manager involved in coordinating the state’s rebuilding efforts following Cyclone Debbie commented that his team was in the ironic situation of rebuilding from floods during a drought. The drought was making it difficult to find water to mix with gravel and to suppress the dust associated with rebuilding roads.</p>
<p>The drought intensified, contributing to an outbreak of more than 140 bushfires. This was followed and exacerbated by an extreme heatwave, with temperatures in the 40s that smashed records for the month of November. Bushfire conditions in parts of Queensland were classified as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/04/bushfires-tropics-queensland-terrifying-new-reality-cyclones-flooding">catastrophic</a>” for the first time since the rating scale was developed in 2009. More than a million hectares of bush and farmland were destroyed – the <a href="https://riskfrontiers.com/queensland-bushfires-2018/">largest</a> expanse of Queensland affected by fire since records began.</p>
<p>Just days later, Tropical Cyclone Owen approached the Queensland coast, threatening significant flooding and raising the risk of severe mudslides from the charred hillsides. Owen set an Australian <a href="http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tropical-cyclone-owens-rainfall-legacy/528934">record</a> in dumping 681 millimetres of rain in just 24 hours – more than Melbourne usually receives in a year. It did not, however, diminish the drought gripping much of the state. </p>
<p>A few weeks later, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs69.pdf">record</a> rains flooded <a href="https://www.agweb.com/article/flooding-kills-estimated-300000-plus-cattle-in-australia/">more than 13.25 million hectares</a> of Northern Queensland, killing hundreds of thousands of drought-stressed cattle. As two Queensland graziers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/13/we-have-death-and-devastation-at-every-turn-the-flood-massacre-of-queensland-cattle">wrote</a> at the time: “Almost overnight we have transitioned from relative drought years to a flood disaster zone.”</p>
<h2>Time to prepare</h2>
<p>We need to begin preparing now for this changing climate, by developing a national strategy that outlines exactly how we move on from business as usual and adopt a more responsible approach to climate disaster preparedness. </p>
<p>It makes no sense for the federal government to have two separate strategies (as it currently does) for <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/2153/nationalstrategyfordisasterresilience.pdf">disaster resilience</a> and <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/adaptation/publications/national-climate-resilience-and-adaptation-strategy">climate change adaptation</a>. Given that <a href="https://www.unisdr.org/archive/46793">90% of major disasters</a> worldwide are from climate-related hazards such as storms, droughts and floods, these two strategies should clearly be merged.</p>
<p>One of the prime objectives of the new strategy should be to scale up Australia’s efforts to prevent hazards from turning into disasters. Currently, the federal government spends 30 times more on rebuilding after disasters than it does on <a href="https://www.iag.com.au/natural-disasters-are-putting-billions-dollars-risk">reducing the risks in the first place</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/properties-under-fire-why-so-many-australians-are-inadequately-insured-against-disaster-50588">Properties under fire: why so many Australians are inadequately insured against disaster</a>
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<p>Australia should be leading global calls for urgent climate action, not just because we’re so vulnerable to climate hazards, but also for traditional national security reasons. We are the wealthiest nation in a region full of less-developed countries that are hugely vulnerable to climate change. Shocks to their food security, economic interests and political stability will undermine our own national security.</p>
<p>No military alliance, deployment of troops or new weapon system will adequately protect Australia from this rapidly escalating threat. The only effective “forward defence” is to reduce greenhouse gases globally, including in Australia, as quickly as possible. Without far greater ambition on this front, the scale of the disasters that lie ahead will overwhelm even the most concerted efforts to strengthen the resilience of Australian communities.</p>
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<p><em>This is an edited version of an article that originally appeared on <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/preparing-for-the-era-of-disasters/">The Strategist</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Glasser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With heatwaves, droughts and fires all on the rise, the federal government is urged to merge its separate strategies on disaster resilience and climate readiness.Robert Glasser, Honorary Associate Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/966072018-05-29T22:58:50Z2018-05-29T22:58:50ZManagement wisdom from the NBA: sometimes the best move is the one you don’t make<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220564/original/file-20180528-90281-xhm6xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Houston Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni, during Game 2 of the NBA basketball Western Conference finals against the Golden State Warriors in Houston. D'Antoni successfully resisted calls to change his team's offensive strategy after losing Game 1.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23525823/houston-rockets-blocking-noise-sticking-their-season-long-plan-golden-state-warriors">“Defiant Rockets rewarded for ignoring calls for change.”</a> That was one of the top headlines on ESPN following the recovery by the Houston Rockets in Game 2 of the NBA Western Conference finals. Despite a barrage of criticism directed at the team’s offensive strategy after a lopsided loss in Game 1, the Rockets stayed the course. And it paid off. </p>
<p>After a tough 119-106 loss to the Golden State Warriors two nights before, Houston coach Mike D’Antoni could have gone back to the drawing board and changed the offensive game plan. After all, that is what critics expected he would do to put the team in a more competitive position in Game 2.</p>
<p>But D’Antoni, like many basketball coaches, knows that sometimes the best move is no move at all. </p>
<p>D’Antoni’s decision not to change the isolation-heavy offence that led his team to the top of the Western Conference during the regular season is what I call “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291367325_Competitive_Forbearance_The_Content_the_Process_and_the_Outcomes_of_Purposefully_Not_Acting">competitive forbearance,”</a> a purposeful decision not to act when key decision-makers have opportunity and capability to do so. </p>
<p>Competitive forbearance is also an important strategic decision in the business world.</p>
<h2>Competitive forbearance in business</h2>
<p>Competitive dynamics, a stream of strategic management research, addresses fundamental questions in strategy: How firms behave and why firms perform differently.</p>
<p>Studies in this area have mainly focused on how competitive aggressiveness — the propensity to carry out a large number of competitive actions — increases a firm’s performance. <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0149206316673718">Firms that fail to act frequently appear unenterprising or “passive,” which can diminish performance.</a></p>
<p>Little attention has been paid to the possible benefits of purposeful decisions not to act.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0149206300000805">Mutual forbearance theory</a> suggests multimarket rivals choose competitive forbearance to prevent unnecessary losses associated with escalating rivalry across several markets.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/hoping-for-a-bullish-stock-market-cheer-for-the-washington-capitals-97230">Hoping for a bullish stock market? Cheer for the Washington Capitals</a>
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<p>However, multimarket contact is just one situation in which forbearance is preferable to action. Savvy firms use forbearance to outmanoeuvre rivals in a variety of competitive situations.</p>
<p>For example, Apple decided not to integrate Adobe’s Flash Player into the iPhone and the iPad. As a result, <a href="http://allthingsd.com/20120815/gone-in-a-flash-adobe-pulls-player-from-google-store/?KEYWORDS=Apple+flash+player.">Adobe withdrew its Flash Player from the Android mobile operating system</a> of Apple’s arch enemy, Google, and chose to refocus its efforts around the emerging HTML5 standard. This suggests that Apple’s forbearance was the right choice despite being heavily <a href="http://www.apple.com/hotnews/thoughts-on-flash/">criticized at the time</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220575/original/file-20180528-80645-1wwih1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220575/original/file-20180528-80645-1wwih1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220575/original/file-20180528-80645-1wwih1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220575/original/file-20180528-80645-1wwih1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220575/original/file-20180528-80645-1wwih1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220575/original/file-20180528-80645-1wwih1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220575/original/file-20180528-80645-1wwih1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">When Steve Jobs introduced the first iPhone in 2007, Apple made a conscious decision not to allow it to work with Adobe’s Flash Player.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)</span></span>
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<p>I was part of a research project that explored the antecedents and consequences of competitive forbearance in the basketball coaching setting. Our research findings show that it has a significant impact on competitive rivalry. </p>
<h2>How forbearance improves performance</h2>
<p>In basketball, coaches make a wide range of forbearance decisions — not replacing players who are in foul trouble, not calling timeouts when teams are underperforming and not responding to opponents’ changes in offensive or defensive strategies.</p>
<p>In fact, 30 post-game interviews with nine coaches regarding their strategic decisions in 15 basketball games in the division one men’s basketball league of the FIBA–Europe revealed 673 competitive acts and 143 competitive forbearances. In other words, 17 per cent of all considered competitive moves were purposefully not executed. Competitive forbearance varied systematically across coaches.</p>
<p>The reasons basketball coaches choose to forbear can vary, from waiting for the full benefits of previous decisions to materialize to increasing players’ confidence — or in the case of D’Antoni, avoiding moves inconsistent with the team’s existing strategy and providing an opportunity for players to learn from experience. It was the right call — the Rockets went on to win 127-105 in Game 2. </p>
<p>Although competitive forbearance can improve team performance by expanding the range of strategic maneuvers and by making competitive behaviours less predictable, coaches are more prone to act than to forbear. Why is that? Two key factors are stakeholder pressure and coaching confidence. </p>
<h2>Not acting attracts criticism</h2>
<p>Owners, journalists, analysts, fans and players often assume that not taking action indicates incompetence and a lack of coaching skills. Thus, the norm is to act and forbearance is a violation of the norm.</p>
<p>The negative outcomes associated with forbearance are judged more harshly than the negative outcomes of actions. The effects of this pressure are especially evident in the last two minutes of the game, where our study revealed competitive forbearance was 62 per cent less likely to occur.</p>
<p>Not all coaches succumb to stakeholder pressure. More accomplished coaches had 42 per cent higher odds of forbearing. We also found the coaches who were confident about winning the game were over two and half times more likely to forbear. D’Antoni’s regular-season record with the Rockets — 65 wins in 82 games — would indicate a certain amount of confidence in the team’s odds of success. </p>
<p>When key decision-makers actively use forbearance, they consider a wide range of plots to outcompete rivals. They are also less predictable to rivals because they forbear when rivals expect action.</p>
<p>Despite its unique advantages, competitive forbearance is not in the toolkit of many basketball coaches. Only more accomplished and confident coaches are more likely to use competitive forbearance, which in turn, increases team performance. </p>
<p>And how did it work out for the Houston Rockets? D’Antoni kept firm to his forbearance decision throughout the Western final — he did not change the team’s offensive strategy. But a collapse in the second half of Game 7 led to a Golden State victory. <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23636649/eric-gordon-believes-houston-rockets-playing-title-chris-paul-had-played">If the Rockets did not lose Chris Paul when they were up 3-2 after five games</a>, they might have been in the finals.</p>
<p>Indeed, it is not one decision, but a series of decisions that can increase or decrease performance. Forbearances increased the chances of success, but it is a combination of actions and forbearances that is critical for winning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96607/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Goce Andrevski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Research has shown that the most successful basketball coaches resist pressure to make changes during games. Choosing not to make a move is sometimes also the right call for business leaders.Goce Andrevski, Associate Professor, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/838462018-01-10T14:50:24Z2018-01-10T14:50:24ZMyanmar’s troubles persist – and China sees it all as part of a great game<p>As the Myanmar government’s violent policy towards its Rohingya Muslims drew increasing international condemnation in 2016, the country’s sometime icon of democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi, <a href="https://theconversation.com/eyewitness-the-rohingya-horrors-and-aung-san-suu-kyis-whitewash-84750">declined to speak out</a> for the persecuted minority. And in her attempts to protect Myanmar from renewed isolation, she has continued to deepen its relationship with her most powerful authoritarian neighbour: China. It seems the common notion that newly democratic states have little time for autocratic partners is false. </p>
<p>Before the West started paying real attention to the Rohingya crisis, Myanmar’s democratic transition was something of a cause celebre. But in reality, the country is <a href="https://theconversation.com/myanmars-rohingyas-victims-of-a-democracy-still-under-military-sway-84234">still under military sway</a>, and the democratic West is still less influential in Myanmar than China. Beijing’s interests are still a decisive economic influence in the country, which is <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/chinas-belt-and-road-in-myanmar/">clearly</a> a potentially crucial partner in China’s gargantuan <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/12/the-900bn-question-what-is-the-belt-and-road-initiative">Belt and Road initiative</a>.</p>
<p>To be sure, China is just one of Myanmar’s <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/myanmar-working-with-china-russia-to-avoid-un-rebuke-over-persecution-of-muslims-2017-9">heavyweight international protectors</a>, which also include Russia and India. These three countries all share certain urgent concerns, among them the threat of militant radical Islamism. <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/world/masood-azhar-calls-for-action-in-myanmar-4839397/">Connections</a> have been drawn between Rohingya militants and Pakistani extremist groups such as <a href="http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/view/95">Jaish-e-Mohammed</a>, this just as Beijing is increasing pressure on Pakistan to curb its support for fundamentalist groups that could threaten Chinese interests in Asia. </p>
<p>As it surveys this troubling map – which also includes an insurgency among the <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-uighur-muslims-are-trapped-in-a-cycle-of-violence-29805">Uighur Muslims</a> of China’s own Xinjiang province – Beijing views Myanmar’s crackdown not as a domestic problem for a junior partner, but as another front in a wider struggle for stability.</p>
<p>And just as Myanmar fits into that particular Chinese strategy, it also has a part to play in various others.</p>
<h2>The Chinese way</h2>
<p>This is a style of geopolitical influence China is pursuing the world over. Its current foreign policy in Asia follows a similar pattern to its <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-africa">policies</a> in Africa, which revolve heavily around infrastructure and development assistance as well as commodity extraction. It is <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-and-africa-theres-strategy-but-the-search-for-substance-goes-on-51937">still open to question</a> whether these policies will benefit African states in the long term, but what cannot be denied is that China has had a significant impact on the continent in a comparatively short period of time.</p>
<p>Many critics of China’s African policies point to Beijing’s support for authoritarian and violent regimes such as <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/giorgio-cafiero/in-south-sudan-china-peac_b_5804234.html">Sudan’s</a>, which it backed during <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7503428.stm">much of the Darfur massacre</a> in the 2000s. And even democratic shifts in government do not necessarily turn African states away from Chinese influence.</p>
<p>After sweeping into power on a wave of anti-Chinese populism in 2011, Zambia’s late Michael Sata appeared to spell <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/24/world/africa/zambias-presidency-changes-hands-after-election.html">trouble for Chinese interests</a> in his country. He even threatened to recognise Taiwan – a direct affront to Beijing, which regards Taiwan as a wayward province. But in the end, Sata did not act on his threats, instead <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21531021">endorsing his country’s Chinese ties</a>.</p>
<p>What does this tell us about China’s approach to Myanmar and countries like it? As with the expectations of Myanmar’s transition to democracy, it is not always certain that a more democratic regime will turn away from Beijing. It seems China has become too powerful for most countries to ignore on principle. </p>
<p>This is only helped by Chinese foreign policy’s remarkable consistency. Besides pursuing the Belt and Road initiative, which extends across much of Asia and <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-grand-geopolitical-project-threatens-a-new-east-west-divide-in-europe-79477">well into Europe</a>, China is carefully cultivating cadres of friendly states in its “near abroad”, whether in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-new-silk-road-is-all-part-of-its-grand-strategy-for-global-influence-70862">post-Soviet sphere</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-push-to-unite-south-east-asia-against-chinese-expansionism-could-backfire-55733">Southeast Asia</a>. </p>
<p>This also explains China’s support for North Korea in the face of a war of words between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. While that policy has often been held up as an example of Beijing’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-leaders-and-citizens-are-losing-patience-with-north-korea-75262">inability to control Pyongyang</a>, it is equally an expression of China’s relative strength: as things stand, any Western moves to counter North Korea would be impossible without Beijing’s assistance.</p>
<p>Then there’s the matter of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-china-wont-back-off-the-south-china-sea-whatever-the-world-might-say-62248">South China Sea</a>. Once seen as an “<a href="https://www.ceps.eu/publications/%E2%80%98american-lake%E2%80%99-drying-china-sea">American lake</a>”, China now lays claim to the sea almost in its entirety, and not just for its own sake; as political theorist John Mearsheimer once argued in <a href="https://samuelbhfauredotcom.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/s2-mearsheimer-2001.pdf">The Tragedy of Great Power Politics</a>, aspiring superpowers often seek to dominate in their sphere of influence before becoming a global power.</p>
<p>So as far as China is concerned, the ongoing Rohingya crisis is just one of many developments in Asia where it has key interests at stake. It will not allow the world’s growing impatience and outrage at the Myanmar government’s behaviour to undermine what’s become a remarkably coherent foreign policy – not a mercenary venture, but a carefully planned great game.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Harper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s attitude towards Myanmar reflects a bigger strategy: to bolster its presence in Asia at the expense of the established American-led order.Tom Harper, Doctoral Researcher in Politics, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/839962017-09-14T12:02:55Z2017-09-14T12:02:55ZApple makes a $999 gamble on its aspirational brand<p>Apple is taking a calculated risk with the pricing of its new phone. The US$999 iPhone X is a bet on users’ loyalty and wealth and is on the surface consistent with the company’s longstanding strategy of differentiation and exclusivity. The danger lies in how the phone sells in the world’s huge and growing emerging markets; Apple clearly thinks it is a risk worth taking.</p>
<p>And it’s not without reason. Apple has always targeted the higher end of the market worldwide rather than just aiming for a larger base of users. In fact, if anything, Apple tends to price phones <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/09/10/how-much-does-the-iphone-7-cost-around-the-world/">higher outside the US</a>. The UK has to stomach <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/13/apple-iphone-x-launch-uk-prices-dollar-parity">an inflated price</a> for the iPhone X even when tax differences are allowed for. </p>
<p>To be clear, the top end phone is not the only option. British customers will be able to pick up an iPhone 8 for £699 and an iPhone 8 Plus for £799. This is still more expensive than its direct competitors, but the demand curve for the iPhone is relatively inelastic. This means that for a given percentage increase in price, the percentage reduction in demand is smaller, giving an overall increase in revenues. No wonder the iPhone accounts for the majority of <a href="http://investor.apple.com/financials.cfm">Apple’s revenues and profits</a>.</p>
<h2>New markets</h2>
<p>The question that most immediately arises is whether Apple’s move will work in important emerging economies. It is certainly consistent with Apple’s image as an exclusive handset and as “the real thing”, despite the availability of much cheaper imitations. The dilemma for Apple when it comes to marketing strategy is this: A high price, while aiding exclusivity and strengthening its premium strategy, may also constrain its growth in lucrative emerging economies such as India. </p>
<p>On the other hand, if Apple decides to offer cheaper versions of its products in particular markets, or lower prices for the same products that are more expensive elsewhere, it will create bigger problems for itself. </p>
<p>Cheaper versions of its products sold anywhere will detract from its overall premium strategy. The same products sold more cheaply in some countries will quickly create arbitrage options that can be exploited by black market traders, unsettling Apple’s strategy in developed markets, too. </p>
<p>For now, Apple has chosen to maintain a consistent strategy worldwide, and ride the growth of emerging markets by tapping into the expansion of the middle class as it occurs. Despite teething troubles, this decision is working out <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/25/apple-iphone-sales-in-china-market-share-falling-canalys-data.html">relatively well in China</a>, a country further ahead in its modernisation journey than its fellow emerging markets powerhouse India, and where more users can afford to buy genuine Apple products. While the $999 pricing may not be the ideal option for India right now, the other options are worse for Apple. </p>
<p>In the medium to long term, more and more people will be able to afford Apple products in India and beyond. Keeping a consistent image and quality will aid in the slower but steady increase in users in those emerging economies. The goal is to keep the iPhone as an aspirational device people will buy as soon as they are able to.</p>
<h2>New features</h2>
<p>At the same time, Apple is continuing to focus on intense levels of efficiency in production and more broadly at the operational level, aided by a largely consistent design, operating system and functions across its different iPhone models. The $999 iPhone has no home button enabled by a new type of screen, and includes face recognition and “animojies”. These are features that will find their way to more affordable iPhone models in subsequent releases.</p>
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<p>As <a href="http://www.wbs.ac.uk/wbs2012/assets/WBS_Core_Edition_One_Quantum%20Strategy%20at%20Apple%20Inc_56-59%20(3).pdf">I have argued elsewhere</a>, while Apple’s strategy for the broad market is one of differentiation, internally it is striving for the lowest cost possible, and <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0090261613000132">has delivered impressive efficiency levels</a>. How does it do this? </p>
<p>Well, it is a combination of things, including good integration across its product lines which increases Apple’s negotiating power over suppliers and makes effective use of external manufacturers. Apple also keeps its supply chain lean by getting its products out the door and into our hands as quickly as possible. Apple bosses, meanwhile keep innovation spending highly focused, and further dampen costs by using a <a href="http://fortune.com/2011/08/29/rethinking-apples-org-chart/">stripped-down corporate hierarchy</a> which cuts down on meaningless meetings. </p>
<p>So, the $999 iPhone might just be worth it for Apple, but what about the customer? The advances that the iPhone X offers, such as face recognition, wireless charging, infrared camera and edge to edge screen may be significant in terms of user experience. We will need to wait for the reviews to come in though; will the facial recognition work seamlessly? How will people react to the absence of the home button, and will the gestures offer ease of use?</p>
<p>Pricing, apart from the ability to pay, is also to an extent a social construct. People will pay what they think is appropriate, if they can afford it. Apple has traditionally pushed the boundaries of customer sense of pricing appropriateness. In terms of affordability, in countries where mobile operators offer package deals, the incremental cost over the $699 iPhone 7 for example will amount to a couple of cups of coffee per month. In any case, users will have the option of buying the more affordable handsets. </p>
<p>People have been predicting Apple’s demise for several years now, but Apple’s performance has <a href="https://www.apple.com/uk/newsroom/2017/08/apple-reports-third-quarter-results/">remained strong</a> since Steve Jobs’ death. At a market cap of US$815 billion, Apple is the most valuable listed company in the world by some distance from the second, Alphabet (Google), at US$649 billion. Apple’s pricing move for its top iPhone is an example of the essence of strategy: making tough decisions, real choices that are meaningful for company performance. No move is risk-free, but at the very least this courageous move will create some distance from competing brands in terms of exclusivity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83996/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Loizos Heracleous does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The tech giant has doubled down on its strategy of exclusivity, but does it risk weakening its position in emerging markets?Loizos Heracleous, Professor of Strategy, Warwick Business School, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/817832017-08-01T17:57:21Z2017-08-01T17:57:21ZWhat the Djibouti military base tells us about China’s growing role in Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180384/original/file-20170731-22172-lgt3tm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>China hasn’t been known for establishing military bases in Africa – or even beyond its immediate sphere of influence. This is changing following its decision to build a military base in <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/china-open-overseas-military-base-djibouti-170712135241977.html">Djibouti</a> on the Horn of Africa. The base will be next door to the <a href="https://www.africom.mil/area-of-responsibility/east-africa/republic-of-djibouti">United States Africa Command</a>. </p>
<p>China will be able to use the base to improve the way it manages its peacekeeping operations and humanitarian efforts in Africa, as well as its regional maritime operations. </p>
<p>How should this be understood in terms of China’s global positioning? And what are the implications of its expanding military footprint in Africa? </p>
<p>The brief answer is that there has not been a sudden change in China’s role and foreign policy profile on the continent. Instead, the change has been gradual and incremental. This is particularly evident from an international peacekeeping perspective.</p>
<p>Beijing’s views and approach towards United Nations peacekeeping have changed significantly since China <a href="http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2015/10/18/2003630319">joined the UN</a> in 1971. A major shift took place after the end of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Cold-War">Cold War</a> and, over the years, it’s gradually taken a more positive stance and indicated a greater willingness to contribute.</p>
<p>Today China contributes peacekeepers in <a href="https://theglobalobservatory.org/2016/10/china-peacekeeping-dpko-south-sudan-mali/">substantial numbers</a> to operations in South Sudan, Mali and the <a href="http://www.african-defense.com/defense-news/chinese-peacekeepers-shine-in-drc/">Democratic Republic of Congo</a>. In doing so, it’s deliberately sending a message that its rising profile is not a strategic threat to other major powers. Instead, it wants to be regarded as a friend to developing nations and be more responsive to global expectations. This includes the need to reduce tensions and conflicts.</p>
<p>China’s role in Africa can be understood from three broad perspectives: to assert its position as a global power, craft a positive image of itself, and to promote its national interests.</p>
<h2>A global player</h2>
<p>China increasingly intends to show that it is a global power. The new base in Djibouti should be viewed in this context. It’s in line with China’s views on international peacekeeping. This is that peacekeeping is way of exerting greater influence on international affairs through the UN.</p>
<p>Unlike the US, which has numerous <a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-worldwide-network-of-us-military-bases/5564">military bases around the world</a>, China has exercised its global presence through peacekeeping operations. As a result, Beijing has emerged as a significant actor in international peacekeeping operations – in Africa and elsewhere. </p>
<p>Its commitment to this can be seen from the fact that it’s the only country that significantly contributes both troops and money to <a href="http://chinapower.csis.org/china-un-mission/">UN peacekeeping operations</a>.</p>
<p>Secondly, China’s expanding role in UN peacekeeping over the last two decades has helped it craft a more positive and constructive global image and reputation. It has used peacekeeping deliberately, and systematically, as a diplomatic instrument aimed at projecting China as a responsible global power. Its approach to peacekeeping has also allowed it to respond more quickly to African requests or challenges. And it’s worked as a confidence building measure with both African governments and the African Union.</p>
<p>Thirdly, China’s emerging role in Africa is part of an evolving and pragmatic reorientation in Chinese policymaking circles, specifically where Beijing’s political interests and related investments are at stake. China is <a href="http://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/january-2013/china-heart-africa">Africa’s largest trading partner</a>, and its strategic and material interests have become more integrated and entangled with African concerns.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180386/original/file-20170731-22175-9evoy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180386/original/file-20170731-22175-9evoy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180386/original/file-20170731-22175-9evoy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180386/original/file-20170731-22175-9evoy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180386/original/file-20170731-22175-9evoy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180386/original/file-20170731-22175-9evoy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180386/original/file-20170731-22175-9evoy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chinese soldiers deployed for UN peacekeeping missions at their military base in Qinyang, Henan province, China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Michael Reynolds</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But its growing involvement in peacekeeping has become more difficult to reconcile with its historical commitment to non-interventionism. This is particularly clear in the case of South Sudan. </p>
<h2>Strategic interests</h2>
<p>Africa’s youngest nation has presented both challenges and opportunities for China. It has had to soften its historical arm’s length approach to facilitate a political solution to the ongoing conflict in South Sudan. But it has also needed to secure its strategic interests, especially the production of oil.</p>
<p>In this volatile and turbulent environment, Beijing felt compelled to make a substantial peacekeeping contribution to the <a href="http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/unmiss/">United Nations Mission in South Sudan</a>. This included deploying combat troops. </p>
<p>But it also had to assume a number of new political roles, such as mediating between warring parties and engaging in <a href="http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45658&#.V-KBmvl97IU">multilateral peace talks</a>. This put Chinese foreign policy principles under pressure and steered its involvement in international peacekeeping operations in a new direction.</p>
<p>China’s peacekeeping experience in South Sudan suggests that it tacitly recognises that some kind of intervention is sometimes needed to protect its strategic interests. </p>
<p>Although China’s involvement in peacekeeping in South Sudan should not be overstated in terms of its scope and extent, it does seem to signal the beginning of a far more assertive role in Africa’s peace and security issues.</p>
<p>At the same time, as much as China is being forced to adopt high risk strategies in cases of overseas investment, as in South Sudan, its approach can still be defined as being carefully impartial. It remains true that China’s increased involvement in political dynamics in South Sudan doesn’t sit easily with its long held policy of non-intervention.</p>
<h2>A new colonialism?</h2>
<p>Will China’s presence in Africa – including its military footprint in Djibouti – turn into a new form of colonialism in Africa?</p>
<p>I believe this is highly unlikely. China remains acutely aware of the pitfalls associated with the politics of interventionism, especially in developing nations. It wants developing countries to regard it as a friend in global politics.</p>
<p>But it wouldn’t be surprising if China started to apply at least a measure of military (hard) power alongside diplomatic (soft) power if it believes its economic interests are under threat. </p>
<p>African leaders must be realistic about developments such as the Djibouti military base. They can’t welcome China’s presence – and investments – as an acceptable alternative to America, while opposing Beijing’s use of diplomatic – and even military – means to protect its interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>National Research Foundation (South Africa) </span></em></p>China’s presence in Africa continues to grow with its first military base in Djibouti. It wants to be a friend to Africa positioning itself as a global power while looking after its own interests.Theo Neethling, Professor and Head: Political Studies and Governance in the Humanities Faculty, University of the Free StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/805512017-07-11T19:40:01Z2017-07-11T19:40:01ZHermès: behind the scenes of the French luxury gem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176869/original/file-20170705-16513-vtxm9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Hermès building in Tokyo, designed by Renzo Piano (Ginza 5, Chuo-ku, Tokyo).</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://visualhunt.com/f/photo/2233042034/65b75c7ceb/">Naoya Fujii/Visual Hunt</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hermès is a quintessential French luxury brand. But behind the beauty, refinement and quality of its products, the company is also financially strong. What are the cornerstones of its success?</p>
<p>The group published outstanding figures for the 2016 financial year, recording sales of more than 5 billion euros (up 7.5%). While the two leading companies in the luxury market (LVMH and Richemont, according to a Deloitte study, <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/consumer-industrial-products/gx-cip-global-powers-luxury-2017.pdf">“Global Powers of Luxury Goods 2017”</a>) far surpass Hermès in turnover (37.6 billion euros for LVMH at the end of December 2016, and 10.6 billion euros for the Swiss company at the end of March 2017), no luxury industry group beats Hermès’ performance. In 2016, the company’s net profit represented 21.1% of sales, far above the industry average of 8.95% and ahead of both LVMH (10.5%) and the Richemont Group (11.36%). </p>
<p>In our opinion, Hermès’ four major strengths are: a real identity, the creativity and skills of its artisans, innovation, and the fact that it remains an independent family company. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174728/original/file-20170620-30872-14kgdf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174728/original/file-20170620-30872-14kgdf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174728/original/file-20170620-30872-14kgdf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174728/original/file-20170620-30872-14kgdf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174728/original/file-20170620-30872-14kgdf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174728/original/file-20170620-30872-14kgdf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174728/original/file-20170620-30872-14kgdf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174728/original/file-20170620-30872-14kgdf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maison Hermès, Dosan Park, Seoul.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/eager/5067080349/in/photolist-9S3Afc-pqeHaS-9S6uEo-8HL7mc-FXpKS-8HPdS9-8HPevS-8HPffJ-8HPerJ-K5mSW-8HL74k-8HPfw3-8HPez9-8HL7eR-8HPeb9-8HL77B-8HL7Dk-8szJWp-8HPeCL-8HPeRd-Uo5fKq-8HPeio-8HPe15-8HPenw-8HL716-8CTQ9B-8HL6QR-8HL7si-8HL6c4-2DCKhm-8HPeEU-8HPeeQ-8HL7zP-8HPfoG-8HL69z-8HPfGS-rFmhax-HoBGKF-AqmXB4-ULrjc2-FPZVoP-ULrjk8-Uo5fEW-TFGdAo-ULrjtz-tEXRFK-8HPeUu-8HL61R-FXpJY-s8Dr5c">Forgemind ArchiMedia/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A real identity</h2>
<p>Founded by Thierry Hermès in Paris, in 1837, the company established its identity through its products. After starting out with horse-riding and carriage accessories, today the group operates in a wide range of sectors (detailed in its <a href="http://finance.hermes.com/var/finances/storage/original/application/dfd39887394237400c6fbfbcec6245a5.pdf">2016 reference document</a>, including clothes and accessories (21% of sales), silk and textiles (10%), perfumes (5%), watches (3%) and other products (4%), including jewelry, lifestyle products and home wares. Accounting for 50% of sales, leather goods and saddlery still make up the backbone of the company. </p>
<p>The group is deeply attached to its French identity: it is not simply “Hermès”, but “Hermès Paris”. The majority of its products are still manufactured in France, with 4,300 craftspeople and 61.4% of its workforce located within the country. </p>
<p>Maintaining a large part of their manufacturing in France is a key element of Hermès strategy. This contrasts with a number of companies in the luxury sector that have looked overseas in a search for short-term profits, a phenomenon decried by Dana Thomas in her book, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/21/books/21kaku.html"><em>Deluxe : How Luxury Lost Its Lustre</em></a>.</p>
<p>The exceptional creativity and skills handed down from generation to generation constitute the second plank of the Hermès strategy. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174730/original/file-20170620-30863-2q2gcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174730/original/file-20170620-30863-2q2gcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174730/original/file-20170620-30863-2q2gcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174730/original/file-20170620-30863-2q2gcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174730/original/file-20170620-30863-2q2gcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174730/original/file-20170620-30863-2q2gcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174730/original/file-20170620-30863-2q2gcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174730/original/file-20170620-30863-2q2gcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hermès ad, 1923.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikipedia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Creativity and skills of its artisans</h2>
<p>In 2007, Jean Louis Dumas, the group’s iconic chairman from 1978 to 2006, told <a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2007/09/hermes200709">Vanity Fair</a>: “We don’t have a policy of image; we have a policy of product.”</p>
<p>Hermès would not be Hermès without timeless, iconic models such as <a href="http://usa.hermes.com/kelly/us">“The Kelly bag”</a> (created in 1930, renamed in 1956) and the much larger <a href="http://usa.hermes.com/birkin/us">“The Birkin Bag”</a> (1984). </p>
<p>It takes two years for an artisan to learn how to work leather and six years when it comes to precious leathers. One of Hermès’ core principles is that each bag be made by the same artisan, from start to finish. As Axel Dumas always says, “The rule of one bag, one artisan is part of our DNA”. </p>
<p>At Hermès, the idea of responsibility is very important – the artisan must master all of the different stages of fabrication. Quality begins with the choice of materials. To secure its supply of the highest-quality raw materials, Hermès purchased three Australian crocodile farms at the end of 2012. </p>
<p>The company’s third strength lies in its combination of creativity, invention and innovation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174731/original/file-20170620-30812-1vcs9ve.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174731/original/file-20170620-30812-1vcs9ve.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174731/original/file-20170620-30812-1vcs9ve.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174731/original/file-20170620-30812-1vcs9ve.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174731/original/file-20170620-30812-1vcs9ve.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174731/original/file-20170620-30812-1vcs9ve.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174731/original/file-20170620-30812-1vcs9ve.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174731/original/file-20170620-30812-1vcs9ve.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Hermès store on Avenue George V, in Paris’ 8th arrondissement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Moonik/Wikipedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sense of innovation</h2>
<p>To give just a few examples, Hermès launched <a href="http://stylebubble.co.uk/style_bubble/2013/11/petit-h-at-hermes-dont-throw-anything-away.html">Petit h</a> in 2010, under the direction of Pascale Mussard, whose motto is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZVBC2XrAPw">“Don’t throw anything away, we will always find a use for it”</a>. The majority of these pieces are on display in a 1,500-square-meter room at <a href="https://senatus.net/article/hermes-opens-new-store-17-rue-de-sevres/">17, rue de Sèvres</a>, which opened in 2010. Formerly the pool of the hotel Lutetia, the space was listed as a historical monument in 2005. This contrasts with the boutique at 24, rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré, which has a modern style, vast spaces, and light-colored wood. This makes for a very different, but unmistakably Parisian, atmosphere. The space also includes a florist, tea shop and bookstore.</p>
<p>Petit h shows another side of Hermès luxury, demonstrating how much the group strives to make high-quality products available while meeting clients’ expectations in terms of environmental responsibility and sustainable development. More recently, Hermès worked with Apple to create handcrafted leather bands for the <a href="https://www.imore.com/apple-watch-herm-s-launches-tomorrow-heres-everything-you-need-know">Hermès Apple Watch</a>, released October 2015. While this might seem a minor sales’ contributor (unfortunately, sales figures aren’t available), it created extensive media buzz. </p>
<p>Finally, the last plank of the Hermès strategy is its shareholding and management structures. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174736/original/file-20170620-12807-v2qchj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174736/original/file-20170620-12807-v2qchj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174736/original/file-20170620-12807-v2qchj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174736/original/file-20170620-12807-v2qchj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174736/original/file-20170620-12807-v2qchj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174736/original/file-20170620-12807-v2qchj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174736/original/file-20170620-12807-v2qchj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174736/original/file-20170620-12807-v2qchj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The group’s executive board. From left to right : Eric du Halgouët, Guillaume de Seynes, Olivier Fournier, Pierre-Alexis Dumas, Charlotte David, Wilfried Guerrand, Axel Dumas, Florian Craen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://finance.hermes.com/Gouvernement-d-entreprise/Direction-du-groupe/Le-Comite-executif">Hermès</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An independent family company</h2>
<p>The group has been run almost exclusively by the family since its creation in 1837. At present, Axel Dumas (the sixth generation) is the sole manager. Company control has also essentially remained within the family since Hermès entered the Paris stock market in 1993. The only exception occurred between 2010 and 2014, at the time of the so-called “Hermès affair”, which was been laid out in <a href="http://www.thefashionlaw.com/home/hermes-vs-lvmh-a-timeline-of-the-drama">“Hermès vs LVMH : A timeline of the drama”</a>, in <em>The Fashion Law</em>.</p>
<p>By keeping control and capital within the family, Hermès has been able to maintain its independence and its unique long-term model. Between 2007 and 2016 the company’s turnover increased by a factor of 3.2 and their operating income quadrupled. As of July 10, 2017, the share price was valued at 442.40 euros. Hermès market capitalization was above 46.2 billion euros, which is 24 times its <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ebitda.asp">EBITDA</a>, or nearly nine times its turnover. </p>
<p>A perfect combination of tradition and modernity, Hermès has been able to evolve while keeping an eye on the upcoming challenges. It has also taken measures towards the vertical integration of its supply chain, controlling its retail network, continuing a policy of no licensing and creating greater geographical and product diversification, to avoid overdependence on saddlery and leather goods. </p>
<p>Yet the company must ensure it does not overly rely on diversification, offering thousands of different products. Some lines could be discontinued, such as watch-making, which is constantly losing market share. Lastly, Hermès needs to embrace the digital revolution and offer an attractive online experience as a complement to their real-world boutiques. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174737/original/file-20170620-12940-1pz4br6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174737/original/file-20170620-12940-1pz4br6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174737/original/file-20170620-12940-1pz4br6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174737/original/file-20170620-12940-1pz4br6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174737/original/file-20170620-12940-1pz4br6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174737/original/file-20170620-12940-1pz4br6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174737/original/file-20170620-12940-1pz4br6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174737/original/file-20170620-12940-1pz4br6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rooftop sign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://visualhunt.com/f/photo/3307500306/be8cc794a5/">twiga269/Visual Hunt</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some 180 years after its birth, Hermès still excites the imagination of potential clients with unparalleled products, while generating profits and cash flows. At end 2016, its cash and cash equivalents amounted to 2.3 billion euros, with hardly any debt. </p>
<p>But what will the next step be? As a publically listed company, Hermès is required to be more forthcoming than it might prefer. Given its impressive war chest, it’s possible that the family – which bought back almost 70% of the company’s capital – may one day delist it to prevent a hostile takeover. Given the stock’s current valuation it would be an extremely costly move, but isn’t out of the question for a family that has always remained true to its roots and vision.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80551/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Isabelle Chaboud ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Case analysis of Hermès and its four strengths: a real identity, the creativity and skills of its artisans, innovation, and the fact that it remains an independent family company.Isabelle Chaboud, Professeur associé d’analyse financière, d’audit et de risk management, Grenoble École de Management (GEM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/782042017-06-18T09:23:12Z2017-06-18T09:23:12ZHow a South African company turned constraints into global strengths<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173804/original/file-20170614-21910-1d1355i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">SAB’s resilience has allowed it to become a key player globally.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On 28 September 2016, the shareholders of South African born international brewer, SABMiller, approved the company’s <a href="https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=https://www.forbes.com/sites/taranurin/2016/10/10/its-final-ab-inbev-closes-on-deal-to-buy-sabmiller/&refURL=https://www.google.co.za/&referrer=https://www.google.co.za/">acquisition</a> by Anheuser-Busch InBev for $104 billion (R1.5 trillion). The deal paved the way for the creation of what is now by far the world’s <a href="http://www.ab-inbev.co.uk/about/about-abinbev/">largest</a> brewing company.</p>
<p>For a company that started out selling beer to miners in Johannesburg during the gold rush of the late 1800s, it’s been quite a journey. But how did a brewing company from a developing country rise to compete with the multinational brewing behemoths from the developed world?</p>
<p>A series of <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gsj.1143/full">interviews</a> with senior executives and managers who presided over the growth of what was then South African Breweries’ (SAB) rapid expansion during and after the 1990s are revealing. After building up a monopoly-like position in the beer market in South Africa, the company went in search of new markets. It used its experience in South Africa in its entry strategies abroad.</p>
<p>SAB’s path reflects the differences between multinationals from developed and emerging markets in terms of location choices, sequencing, time horizons and motivation.</p>
<p>A two-phased expansion path emerges to explain the remarkable success story. The first pillar to SAB’s international expansion was a focus on developing markets. Coming from a developing country itself, the company would cope better with emerging market conditions than brewers from the developed world. These ventures became a powerful base for SAB to take on developed markets. </p>
<p>The second was to expand into developed countries. This became necessary as it became clear the company was over exposed to emerging markets.</p>
<h2>The first phase of expansion</h2>
<p>After a few early forays into South Africa’s neighbouring countries prior to 1993, SAB executives realised that the company could exploit its knowledge of institutional shortcomings in its home country. It would use this experience to adapt more easily than its competitors to conditions in developing countries. </p>
<p>And so began the first part of its internationalisation strategy: a rapid expansion into emerging markets worldwide.</p>
<p>Through a series of acquisitions and joint ventures throughout the 1990s, SAB gained a foothold in various countries in Africa, Eastern Europe and Asia. Although many were geographically distant (like Hungary, Czech Republic, China and India), they echoed South Africa in terms of their socioeconomic development. Eastern Europe, for example, was still emerging from political reform in the wake of communism, and infrastructural, institutional and economic weaknesses persisted.</p>
<p>By expanding into countries that shared socioeconomic characteristics with South Africa, SAB was able to make use of its experience to turn a perceived drawback – institutional weakness – into a strength. As one respondent explained:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>To be quite frank, we actually accepted that we would live with the political risk and poor institutions. We didn’t really shy away from high-risk countries unless, of course, there was a raging civil war that we would have to wait to subside.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Once it had established this expansion plan, SAB diversified into developed markets such as Italy and the US. As one interviewee put it: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Investors became sceptical of companies whose only business was in emerging markets. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In 2002 it took a step closer to consolidating its position as a multinational brewing giant when it acquired <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/30/news/deals/miller_sab/">US-based Miller Brewing Company</a>. It became SABMiller.</p>
<h2>Turning weakness into strength</h2>
<p>The advantages that SAB gained from its experience in its home country are many. One was employee aptitude. </p>
<p>SAB employees had built up an extraordinary resilience, flexibility and entrepreneurial spirit through their exposure to the unsteady South African environment of the 1980s. As one executive said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>They survived labour trouble, survived interest rates at 25%, inflation at 16% to 17%, survived political disorder, political violence… That toughened you, toughened us.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This robustness, combined with an ability to connect with many different cultures, gave the company a valuable flexibility in its risk, location and investment choices.</p>
<p>Another strength was its ability to turn around neglected breweries and businesses. The experience it gained in South Africa, with its large rural population and pockets of poor infrastructure, meant that finding innovative ways to overcome challenges was embedded in the company’s DNA. </p>
<p>Another advantage the company gained was brand development and marketing ability. SAB was developed into a major operation without reliance on strong, globally-recognised brands. Using its home experience the company took brands it acquired in distant countries and built them into powerful national brands.</p>
<p>These became a base from which it launched into premium brands such as Grolsch and Peroni through acquisitions. This offset being over-invested in domestic brands.</p>
<p>SAB also had a philosophical edge over many competitors. It’s risk appetite was much bigger. By comparison a company like <a href="http://www.ab-inbev.com/investors/results-center/quarterly-reports.html">Anheuser-Busch </a> had a conservative approach to risk and international expansion. </p>
<p>For example, Anheuser-Busch didn’t react to the rapidly changing global brewer consolidation until it was too late. And when it did, it realised that it had little emerging market experience. </p>
<p>This weakness meant that in 2008 Anheuser-Busch was unable to avoid a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/14/business/worldbusiness/14beer.html">hostile takeover by InBev</a>. This gave rise to AB Inbev, then the world’s largest brewer. AB Inbev, in turn, was compelled to make an offer for SABMiller to acquire complementary emerging market presence.</p>
<p>SABMiller’s long journey from the mine heaps of Johannesburg to global brewing colossus may appear to have come to an abrupt end after its acquisition by Anheuser-Busch InbevAB Inbev in 2016. But what’s clear is that its extraordinarily successful approach continues to hold many lessons for aspiring global companies from the developing world.</p>
<p>_This piece was adapted from an academic <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gsj.1143/full">article</a> by John Luiz, Dustin Stringfellow and Anthea Jefthas that first appeared in the February 2017 issue of Global Strategy Journal, Volume 7, Issue 1 (83-103).
_</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78204/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Luiz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The development trajectory of South African born brewer SABMiller peaked with the 2016 $104 billion merger with Anheuser-Busch InBev. Behind it lies an extraordinary journey.John Luiz, Professor of International Business Strategy & Emerging Markets, Graduate School of Business, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/780062017-06-07T15:29:26Z2017-06-07T15:29:26ZSouthern Africa has an integration plan: but it’s short of sector specifics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171664/original/file-20170531-25689-yzgxn9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The southern African region can benefit from beneficiating produce like sugar.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">REUTERS/Mujahid Safodien</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has placed industrialisation at the centre of its regional integrated development plan and a <a href="http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---africa/---ro-addis_ababa/---ilo-pretoria/documents/meetingdocument/wcms_391013.pdf">roadmap</a> has been drawn up to guide the plan. But implementation has been poor and not a lot of headway has been made to integrate the economies of the region. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.competition.org.za/regional-value-chains">Recent studies</a> on value chains in the region highlight high transport costs and continued use of non-tariff barriers in some countries as some of the main reasons for poor progress.</p>
<p>These studies suggest that the region needs a coherent sector-specific approach to support the development of regional value chains. That should be supported by efforts to reduce trade barriers. In addition, the impact on industrialisation that large multinationals have had should be considered.</p>
<p>The idea of a roadmap was a wise move but more is needed to give it practical focus. We assessed the extent to which it takes into account the findings of various studies and whether it incorporates plans to overcome the identified challenges. Although the strategy has identified key sectors to lead the process, it fails to set out what should happen in specific sectors to support regional linkages. Its also blind to the role of large multinationals which are distorting regional markets.</p>
<h2>Beneficiation is the key</h2>
<p>The industrialisation strategy stresses the urgent need for the region to make use of its abundant and diverse resources – particularly in agriculture and mining. It’s key aim is to foster industrialisation through beneficiation – a process of transforming primary raw materials into a more value added finished product – and value addition.</p>
<p>This approach is informed by two big challenges related to trade.
First, is that intra-regional trade is low. In 2014 intra-SADC trade was 19% of total trade, compared with 70% in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and 64% in the <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Working_Paper_201_-_Does_Intra-African_Trade_Reduce_Youth_Unemployment_in_Africa.pdf">European Union.</a> </p>
<p>Compounding this is the fact that trade between countries is dominated by low value products from the agricultural and mineral sectors. Most have been through none, or very little processing. This means that a lot of value added products, which can be produced in the region, mineral fuel, are imported. </p>
<p>There are plenty of opportunities to improve the situation. For example, South Africa and Zambia are large net exporters of sugar. Yet, both – as well as others in the region – import most confectionery products, a substantial category of processed food. Products like biscuits, sweets and beverages could add enormous value if they could be produced within the region.</p>
<p>But only a regional approach to promoting value addition will work. It must focus on building productive capacity of industries, developing infrastructure and promoting technology. </p>
<h2>Supply isn’t keeping up with demand</h2>
<p>The agro processing sector is given a prime spot in SADC’s industrialisation strategy. This makes sense because food processing has characterised the early industrialisation stages of many <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/WPS_No_255_Competition_and_industrial_policies_relating_to_food_producti....pdf">emerging economies</a>. </p>
<p>It also makes sense because rapid urbanisation is driving increased demand for processed food. Africa’s urban population nearly <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/africas-huge-urbanisation-challenge-2026331">doubled</a> from 1995 to 2015 and the trend is expected to continue. This has driven up demand for processed foods and confectionery products. But supply isn’t meeting demand. This can be seen from the fact that the region has trade deficits in processed food in sectors like <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2016-2.pdf">poultry</a> and <a href="http://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Roberts-et-al-2015-Working-paper.pdf">sugar</a> confectionery products. </p>
<p>For the strategy to work, constraints such as development financing, transport and poor border logistics need to be addressed. </p>
<p>Reducing transport costs and border delays have been identified as one of the biggest impediments to developing regional value chains. Transport costs are so high that it’s cheaper to import animal feed and sugar from South America than from the <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/RB2016-7-Reducing-transport-costs-to-spur-regional-growth-in-Southern-Africa.pdf">region</a>. It’s been estimated that lower transport costs improve the cost competitiveness of regional producers by <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/RB2016-7-Reducing-transport-costs-to-spur-regional-growth-in-Southern-Africa.pdf">10%</a>. </p>
<h2>Lacking detail</h2>
<p>The region has done well on the big picture (macroeconomic, infrastructure and investment) policies. But there’s been little attention to identifying specific value chains within the agro processing and mineral beneficiation sectors. </p>
<p>The strategy entrenches this problem. Although it points to the need for national industrial policy coordination, it doesn’t address some of the challenges facing specific regional value chains. Non-tariff barriers are an obvious one. Some examples include <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/southern-african-poultry-value-chain">Botswana</a> banning chicken imports and its requirement that at least 30% of local maize and soya must be sourced locally first. Measures such as these have hampered a regional poultry value chain developing. </p>
<p>When it comes to confectionery, <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/WPS_No_255_Competition_and_industrial_policies_relating_to_food_producti....pdf">recent research</a> shows how the sugar-to-confectionery value chain has been affected by Zambia’s ban on sugar imports from neighbouring countries which has led to high prices of sugar in the domestic market.</p>
<p>Removing barriers would also lead to better outcomes for the region because some countries produce very little of some produce, while being abundant in others. For example, Botswana doesn’t produce enough maize and <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/southern-african-poultry-value-chain">soya</a>, while Zambia produces a lot.</p>
<p>Policy coherence and coordination at the sector level is needed to remove these barriers. </p>
<p>Greater attention also needs to be given to the role of large firms, particularity multinationals. For example, the sugar industry is dominated by Illovo and <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/WPS_No_255_Competition_and_industrial_policies_relating_to_food_producti....pdf">Tongaat-Hulett</a>. Because of their dominance they can unilaterally set prices. This has led to higher domestic prices compared with international prices.</p>
<p>The domination by large firms can be addressed by ensuring competition between players in the region. This would require co-ordination between competition authorities to address any potential cross border cartels.</p>
<p>In addition, industrial policies would need to be structured in a way that supports the development of regional value chains for mutual benefit of different countries.</p>
<p>It’s clear that SADC’s industrial development strategy has gaps. Among these are concrete action plans for specific sectors and the need for collective action by different member countries. Given that it’s relatively more industrialised, South Africa has a key role to play. But it must just guard against acting like a big brother. </p>
<p><em>Tatenda Zengeni and Maria Nkhonjera who are researchers at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78006/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>CCRED receives funding from various organisations including government departments for research on regional value chains. </span></em></p>The Southern African Development Community (SADC) roadmap towards greater regional trade integration and development is a good start but lacks detail.Pamela Mondliwa, Researcher, Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/679592016-11-07T11:43:42Z2016-11-07T11:43:42ZIf the Brexit-addicted government were a small business it wouldn’t last a year<p>The march towards Brexit seems relentless. Theresa May <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/25/exclusive-leaked-recording-shows-what-theresa-may-really-thinks-about-brexit">urged people to vote to stay in the EU</a> but she knows the political cost of rowing back back from the referendum result at this stage. When a High Court judgement appeared to put a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785">spanner in the works</a>, the prime minister was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/04/brexit-may-tells-merkel-and-juncker-timetable-remains-the-same">quick to assure European leaders</a> that the plan to trigger the exit process in Spring 2017 had not been derailed. This is an interesting metaphor. Rails are fixed, and once you run along them you are committed to where they go. But can being too wedded to a decision do more harm than good?</p>
<p>In looking at how businesses of all sizes and in many sectors survive and thrive <a href="https://www.brighton.ac.uk/centrim/index.aspx">over the last 25 years</a>, we’ve found there are common behaviours and attitudes. <a href="https://www.americanexpress.com/us/small-business/openforum/articles/why-flexibility-is-key-to-small-business-success/">Flexibility in decision making is a key</a> factor, based on an openness to changes in the environment in and around the business. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.innovation-portal.info/">ability to sense change; to adapt quickly and cleverly</a> are crucial to being a successful innovator. Innovators don’t just adapt in terms of how they manage and what products and services they offer, they are also able to quickly and humbly reverse decisions that no longer make so much sense as the world changes around them. <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastianbailey/2015/10/29/is-your-dogmatic-leader-suffocating-innovation/">Fixed, dogmatic decisions create death in businesses</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144563/original/image-20161104-27919-1yvteul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144563/original/image-20161104-27919-1yvteul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144563/original/image-20161104-27919-1yvteul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144563/original/image-20161104-27919-1yvteul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144563/original/image-20161104-27919-1yvteul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144563/original/image-20161104-27919-1yvteul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144563/original/image-20161104-27919-1yvteul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144563/original/image-20161104-27919-1yvteul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Decisive?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kelsey97/27678701211/in/photolist-JaSzyp-p4oSQH-JtjPtz-ok8Ggj-oaH7D9-nC6qNa-5Pnxus-JtUrdf-otjoHw-JspgML-awgXu7-HGKozD-8EPMNE-JPFiLk-ypzcxd-nULEbf-HirnRZ-JqNR6Q-Jscd5T-JBghhq-Jvj7b6-HMr7Xy-HSL36R-obuuNC-jtp8qc-odk7M9-JvbNHw-JLFHyE-HxsDLj-o9gQCf-o4i6D7-JqCjEW-JG5bfm-JfLc6z-orjYFh-HToPRN-JLFt4N-ov5T3e-HMhorX-Jo61AH-HJAxQP-rjKfV3-oLGnke-JnFWs8-JFeJsq-GKeGaQ-pJwNBU-J3LwxC-qMMFHY-p8CjWr">fernando butcher/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Flexible friends</h2>
<p>The regularly invoked phrase, “the British people have spoken”, is a troubling one from the point of view of flexibility. Referendums are clunky and risky when complexity exists and when environments are volatile. The majority in that vote was relatively small and the conversation is clearly not over. New information is coming to light, new impacts and consequences are emerging that weren’t clearly known at the time. In a small business, the owner or the board would ignore such volatility at their peril. </p>
<p>The government says it is determined to respect the referendum results. And even if the legal arguments end up handing a vote to parliament before Article 50 can be triggered, MPs currently seem likely to <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/2016-11-06/labour-u-turn-on-brexit-vote-as-watson-says-the-party-will-support-may-in-brexit-vote/">respect the original vote</a>. Political pressures have a habit of changing, however, and there will be likely be fierce lobbying from constituents who have rethought – that “things have changed since that vote years ago”. When customer preferences change, suppliers would be crazy to ignore those changes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144569/original/image-20161104-27914-19nmqls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144569/original/image-20161104-27914-19nmqls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144569/original/image-20161104-27914-19nmqls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144569/original/image-20161104-27914-19nmqls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144569/original/image-20161104-27914-19nmqls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144569/original/image-20161104-27914-19nmqls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144569/original/image-20161104-27914-19nmqls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144569/original/image-20161104-27914-19nmqls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Just around the corner?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bagelmouse/17246052428/in/photolist-sgYwxw-7ZcMQJ-27a4s-7Z3QXw-JGRNC-6tZqSc-81nQds-81nL45-bDVK8y-9ETB5R-syoD3f-81nNwJ-rzocUJ-2BktM-9Fghvp-7YZ6oK-7Z72T3-7Z3iZU-7Z3k6w-JCE4p-sescLM-svSyBT-6tLNnW-7Z6EGm-sef6Ap-dpCbr-27HW9-oStrxU-7Za2VB-8ZgB1Q-ryK1vf-egVY7R-7XC9vz-6hcjQr-sew7GF-JwPDRB-nG52Ab-bXeAes-28xx5-88HbqE-6tBtwa-nJz6Ya-8ATaug-rzh3fV-efVLYW-JFinJ-rz5t2y-dtxfW3-nGretr-dpadR">RachelH_/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The longer parliamentary scrutiny runs, the closer we will be to general election. The government’s temporary monopoly on democracy will have unravelled into fears of losing power. Under similar conditions of uncertainty a small business would simply adapt and change, opening itself up to new ideas and possibilities. Committing to a decision, seeing things through, can be the right thing to do in some circumstances. In the light of opposition, tenacity can be a mark of good leadership. But that tenacity can become a fatal bloody mindedness when uncertainty or new information demands a genuine and honest revisiting of an earlier choice.</p>
<h2>Dogma tired</h2>
<p>If the UK government were a small business then we would be forced to ask if its leader and board were being more dogmatic than tenacious? Why do I ask that? Because those calling for the Brexit decision to be revisited are not all partisan opposers. New, credible, information has come to light which would inform a rethink by British people in both camps – we now know that sterling does indeed go into freefall, and that recession doesn’t appear to bite immediately. Even <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37852628">one of those who originally penned Article 50</a> is pointing to the reversability of the Brexit decision. </p>
<p>There is also evidence that many who voted in the referendum feel they didn’t have access to honest information at the time on which to base their free decision. Many are reported to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-backers-change-vote-remain-eu-referendum_uk_576d37f9e4b0d25711498bb5">feel duped</a> or <a href="http://www.consumerintelligence.com/articles/a-quarter-of-brexit-voters-feel-misled">manipulated</a>. One academic even claims <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-michael-dougan-leave-campaign-latest-a7115316.html">the Leave campaign behaved with criminal irresponsibility</a>. Leave campaigners are also able to point to holes in what they had labelled as the Remain camp’s “project fear”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144573/original/image-20161104-27904-1hjg6dz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144573/original/image-20161104-27904-1hjg6dz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144573/original/image-20161104-27904-1hjg6dz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144573/original/image-20161104-27904-1hjg6dz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144573/original/image-20161104-27904-1hjg6dz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144573/original/image-20161104-27904-1hjg6dz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144573/original/image-20161104-27904-1hjg6dz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144573/original/image-20161104-27904-1hjg6dz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A pounding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-442388344/stock-photo-pound-coins-on-financial-figures-balance-sheet-with-graph-of-decreasing-exchange-rate-of-the-pound-sterling-british-pound-gbp-currency-after-eu-referendum-result.html?src=AmWWXKE1QoSjNAgzTzoHtA-1-0">flashray/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are now new forecasts about the impact on our economy and our currency and even on the implications for UK citizens <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/09/britons-may-have-to-apply-to-visit-europe-under-eu-visa-scheme">needing visas to travel into Europe</a>. Clearly the picture could be radically changing. The notion of acting on an ever more outdated snapshot decision is akin to a business acting as if interest rates have not been cut, or relying on last year’s forecast for oil prices. Such behaviour is the road to ruin.</p>
<p>Many in government have confused strong leadership with sticking to decisions regardless of external or internal change. Such behaviour has killed many a business. It results in a failure to innovate, a hesitancy in questioning decisions that no longer make the same sense they did at the time they were made.</p>
<p>This doesn’t mean that the referendum result should be ignored or reversed. However, if we are to learn from the analogy of a fleet-footed small business which is innovative, flexible, and ultimately successful, it makes sense to review major decisions on an ongoing basis. This is what learning organisations do. Dogmatism can be corporate death. Small businesses change in order to survive. Successful ones are humble enough to let go of decisions that no longer hold true. The UK government operates in an equally changing environment, and “Brexit means Brexit” might just be one fixed decision too many.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Levy owns shares in CATS3000 Ltd</span></em></p>Would a competent entrepreneur plough on with a decision that started to look a bit dodgy?Paul Levy, Senior Researcher in Innovation Management, University of BrightonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/445222015-07-10T12:44:21Z2015-07-10T12:44:21ZScience says a 17-mile stage might be the Tour de France’s toughest test<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88036/original/image-20150710-16930-1qk4ty2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Keeping it together. Staying out the wind. the TTT at the Giro d'Italia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Aukje de Vrijer</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Tour de France has been rolling for more than a week now and has finally made it to France in a brutal few days that has seen <a href="http://www.letour.com/le-tour/2015/us/stage-4.html">220km stages</a>, major crashes, cobbles, steep ramps and <a href="http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/racing/tour-de-france/tony-martins-abandons-tour-de-france-with-broken-collarbone-181565">broken bones for two race leaders</a>. But perhaps the biggest challenge lies just around the corner in an intriguing Stage 9, where the riders have to cover what looks like a trifling 28km.</p>
<p>The problem is that those 28km come in a <a href="http://www.letour.com/le-tour/2015/us/stage-9.html">lumpy team time trial from Vannes to Plumelec</a>, and include a 2km finish at a 6.2% incline. Normally, that wouldn’t set the heart racing for the main contenders, but this will be an exciting test. Each team must bring five riders to the line together before the clock stops; with Tours sometimes decided by seconds, cooperation is now required for the riders to win.</p>
<h2>Playing hide and seek</h2>
<p>That teamwork is essential in a team time trial was made painfully clear in the recent team time trial at the Dauphiné Liberé, a week-long stage race that is a traditional warm-up event for the three-week romp around France. In a stage comparable to the Stage 9 Tour route, several teams lost one or two riders early in the time trial as the road rose and fell. This is a huge risk, or a huge error, depending on whether it was planned or not. </p>
<p>Simply put, the more riders you have, the less time each of them needs to cycle in the front position, the position where aerodynamic drag is experienced most and most power must be expended to maintain a competitive speed. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-science-behind-tour-de-frances-hide-and-seek-tactics-29008">In a previous article for The Conversation</a>, I have outlined the benefits of drafting – but these benefits are amplified in the team time trial. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88037/original/image-20150710-16909-k10ten.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88037/original/image-20150710-16909-k10ten.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88037/original/image-20150710-16909-k10ten.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88037/original/image-20150710-16909-k10ten.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88037/original/image-20150710-16909-k10ten.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88037/original/image-20150710-16909-k10ten.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88037/original/image-20150710-16909-k10ten.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88037/original/image-20150710-16909-k10ten.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Preparing for pain. But will they stil be together at the end?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dnet/3547245570/in/photolist-6psywo-6pswmJ-nyuPJq-ngZ6rr-nwr1PJ-nybMZM-nAfzwx-nytNQV-nye7XU-nytUkx-ngZ9wh-nye7gy-nyeaif-nAfx58-ngZ8Py-nye8Yw-ngZ9UG-nAfzpP-6pok5H-o2NECq-6pokdB-6pssSy-6poknr-6poqHF-6porLB-6porAV-nxZS95-6psxXm-6pordH-6pooLg-8x22xd-8x1XdS-6pojGz-6pstCW-6pswbW-ojfYRL-8x1Vyq-ooQRbz-8x1U4E-8wYGSF-ooQRxr-8wXXdZ-6poqbH-8wY1Ck-6psyjL-6psw1E-6pss8y-6e5GmV-ngsq9k-ngsxhE">E. Dronkert</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Drafting behind your fellow team member <a href="https://www.exploratorium.edu/cycling/aerodynamics2.html">can lead to at least a 15% reduction in required power output</a> compared to the front rider while cycling at the same velocity. Having a rider behind you <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PevpVXelq8A">is of benefit too</a> as it removes the void which acts as a drag to the rear. All this means that drafting is crucial for the team time trial – and riders need to optimise their aerodynamics by riding closely together. At the same time, they will need to share the load of riding in the front position and distribute the team’s energy optimally over the race. That is a tough call to make. Each bump in the road will suit different riders best.</p>
<h2>Aero heroes</h2>
<p>Aerodynamics do not only play a role in drafting, they also play a role in how to optimally pace yourself during a time trial. In scientific literature, a lot <a href="http://www.abcc.co.uk/pace-judgement-in-time-trials/">has been written</a> on pacing a time trial, but that has mostly focused on individual performance. Much less is known about how to pace a team time trial.</p>
<p>So, let’s put you in the skinsuit and aero helmet for a moment. When you are cycling in front position, you can imagine yourself cycling through a big bowl of table-tennis balls: the air molecules. Now imagine that you would like to accelerate and cycle twice as fast through this big bowl of balls: you will hit twice as many balls per second, but also, you will hit them with twice the impact force per ball. This means that the air frictional resistance is four times as large (twice as many balls x hitting them twice as hard). </p>
<p>Using some more biomechanics, the power that is needed to overcome this air-frictional resistance (that has become four times as large) while cycling at a velocity (that has become twice as large) is now eight (4x2) times as large compared the power required to cycle at the original velocity. It sounds exhausting – and it is. </p>
<p>In fact, it means that it requires relatively more power to accelerate above average velocity than it would save to decelerate below average velocity. The below image helps to understand why riding to beat <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-bradley-wiggins-can-break-cyclings-toughest-record-41655">cycling’s world hour record</a>, for example, calls for an evenly paced race rather than variable pace. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88039/original/image-20150710-17458-142j0ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88039/original/image-20150710-17458-142j0ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88039/original/image-20150710-17458-142j0ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88039/original/image-20150710-17458-142j0ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88039/original/image-20150710-17458-142j0ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88039/original/image-20150710-17458-142j0ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88039/original/image-20150710-17458-142j0ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88039/original/image-20150710-17458-142j0ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Faster is harder.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Florentina Hettinga</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Risk strategy</h2>
<p>Individual time trials have been seen in the Tour de France since 1934 and are a fairly straightforward test of one rider’s ability against another (assuming the weather doesn’t sharply change during the stage). Team time trials, however, demand more debate because the format can clearly favour the strong team, while handicapping strong individual riders who are supported by relatively weaker team mates. We have seen that drafting is crucial, and we have seen that were it possible, an even-paced strategy with each rider taking equal shifts in front would be optimal. As we have hinted at above though, not all riders are equal. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88045/original/image-20150710-17482-1xb9h8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88045/original/image-20150710-17482-1xb9h8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88045/original/image-20150710-17482-1xb9h8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88045/original/image-20150710-17482-1xb9h8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88045/original/image-20150710-17482-1xb9h8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88045/original/image-20150710-17482-1xb9h8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88045/original/image-20150710-17482-1xb9h8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88045/original/image-20150710-17482-1xb9h8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This is a sub-optimal aerodynamic configuration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/waltarrrrr/8677471122/in/photolist-edNiR5-edL5nJ-edNcHw-hoJkkd-RMsFX-hoJfyG-edG1Wf-9whrZN-rRpmAh-bbmL4M-b7AFwB-9weqx4-g3t14e-kPyfEZ-sgub5w-6y4eGz-bbmJwB-bbmK2F-6f5h7e-bbmJEp-bbmKat-bbmKWR-87WzqW-bbmLb4-bbmKxZ-b7qnVr-bbmKQz-bbmKqx-bbmKhD-bbmJNz-bbmLot-bbmJWn-bbmLhn-bbmKL6-phsxyp-9UDVxf-9MAmDc-edFZPA-bUNft6-9whrsE-ahiLjj-bUNfEB-9weqe2-9weq38-7TQSk6-51vo1j-bUGPce-bUGPjr-9Kuhya-hoJgaG">waltarrrrr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They are not equally strong, so teams need to think about how to structure the strategy as the team rolls through their turns on the front. Also, not all riders are equally large, and teams need to think about how to position them: better for a small rider to cycle behind a large rider rather than vice versa. And lastly, remember that the time of the fifth rider over line is the time that counts for the win. That offers the possibility of sacrificing riders. They might burn off the weakest riders in the early stages, or keep the weaker climbers as fresh as possible for the final ramp. It can be a huge risk. The Dauphiné Liberé team time trial saw most, if not all, teams arrive at the finish with the bare minimum – and all it takes is a late puncture to bring that strategy crashing down. </p>
<p>The complexity of pacing, strategy, aerodynamics, power and gradient may seem hidden at first glance as the teams glide past in sleek formation, but with so many factors at play, there are so many aspects that can go wrong. It’s unlikely anyone will win have won the Tour once Sunday’s team time trial is over, but don’t be surprised if a couple of contenders have seen their chances slip away.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44522/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Florentina Hettinga does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mountains? Pah. 60kph sprints and 220km stages? They’re nothing. The thing most troubling the teas battling for the yellow jersey is this time trial.Florentina Hettinga, Lecturer Sport Science, School of Biological Science, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/341852014-11-17T19:19:20Z2014-11-17T19:19:20ZTragedy is dead in Australia, long live laughter and weather reports<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64667/original/524t9tz7-1416185246.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A nation that understands tragedy is one that respects limits. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">José María Pérez Nuñez</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tragedy is a peculiar thing. More than a style, different from genre, it cuts across art forms to carve out its own non-Euclidean aesthetic space. </p>
<p>In the 4th century BCE Aristotle, in his <a href="http://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/poetics.html">Poetics</a>, famously defined tragedy as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the imitation of an action that is serious, of a certain magnitude, and complete in itself … arousing pity and fear, whereby is accomplished a catharsis of these emotions. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Poetics are akin to lecture notes, so it isn’t completely clear what Aristotle means by “catharsis”. But that hasn’t stopped artists taking him to task for giving audiences a psychological out. The purging of feeling is the end of thought, German playwright Bertolt Brecht argued, creating his own epic theatre in response, one that would “alienate” spectators to full political consciousness.</p>
<p>For others, tragedy is a form that is simply not possible in an age of moral and religious scepticism. American critic George Steiner in <a href="http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/778926.The_Death_of_Tragedy">The Death of Tragedy </a> (1961) argues that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>tragedy speaks not of secular dilemmas which may be resolved by rational innovation, but of the unalterable bias toward inhumanity and destruction in the drift of the world. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Once Modernity moves in with its municipal drain-pipes and mass education, its mood enhancers and genome maps, tragedy ships out, no longer required. Everything has a technological solution, everything can be fixed. </p>
<p>Archimedes, not Aeschylus, is the go-to sage for the new millennium, where progress is always progressing and tragedies are things that appropriate medical intervention can stop in their tracks. When tragedy strikes in life we think, “what went wrong?”. This is not a question that occurs in its stage form, where situations cannot be otherwise than they are. </p>
<p>Agency evaporates along with social remedy. Public Services can’t help Christopher Marlowe’s Dr. Faustus, who has made his deal with the Devil and must stick to it. When midnight strikes nothing in heaven or earth will save him. </p>
<p>What kind of society enjoys tragedy? “Why do sufferings please?” wonders St Augustine in [The City of God ](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_of_God_(book) in the 5th century. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Why is it that a person should wish to experience suffering by watching grievous and tragic events which he himself would not wish to endure? […] When he suffers, it is called misery; when he feels compassion for others, it is called mercy. But what quality of mercy is it in fictitious inventions? </p>
<p>[…] If human calamities […] are so presented the theatre-goer is not caused pain, he walks out, disgusted and highly critical. But if he feels pain, he stays riveted in his seat enjoying himself.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Tragedy is different from dramas that just make us feel sad, though clearly it is not cheery. There are sad things in it. But as a sensibility it is structured in a more vertiginous way. It <em>uses</em> sadness to punch out a new awareness.</p>
<p>When Agamemnon steps off his chariot to go inside his palace, knowing his likely end, or Macbeth, hearing the news of his wife’s death, buckles up to face Malcolm’s army in a final confrontation, sadness is only the beginning of what we feel. There is no way out for these men, no “solution” to their “problem”. </p>
<p>Is tragedy about the fall of “great men”, as some have maintained? Not really. Its central mechanism is a levelling one, King Lear reduced to a “poor, bare, forked animal”. There are no heroes in tragedy. Only casualties. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64670/original/7g6w37dq-1416185432.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64670/original/7g6w37dq-1416185432.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64670/original/7g6w37dq-1416185432.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/64670/original/7g6w37dq-1416185432.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/64670/original/7g6w37dq-1416185432.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/64670/original/7g6w37dq-1416185432.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/64670/original/7g6w37dq-1416185432.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/64670/original/7g6w37dq-1416185432.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jim Valentine</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is a largeness to the characters in a tragedy; or tragedy invests them with largeness, an opening up of the inward self. Nietszche wrote in <a href="http://books.google.com.au/books?id=ceyZGLCW0MIC&pg=PA183&lpg=PA183&dq=The+profundity+of+the+tragic+artist+lies+in+this&source=bl&ots=L4rtf_BjIl&sig=q95b1_ftSLTcRCVv8Qb9O19Jllk&hl=en&sa=X&ei=7mNlVMX4OsbsmAWy9YHYCw&ved=0CCAQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=The%20profundity%20of%20the%20tragic%20artist%20lies%20in%20this&f=false">On The Genealogy of Morality</a> (1887):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The profundity of the tragic artist lies in this, that his aesthetic instinct surveys the more remote consequences, that he does not stare short-sightedly at what is closest at hand, that he affirms the large-scale economy which justifies the terrifying, the evil, the questionable – and more than merely justifies them. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>If he’s right, tragedy is not only a confronting form, but a dangerous one, and Plato was right to ban it from his well-ordered state.</p>
<p>The history of dramatic literature reveals this paradox. As a stage form, tragedy starts to disappear just as the outside world is engulfed by unspeakable calamity. Hard to “justify” 16 million dead in 1918. Reinhardt Goering’s <a href="http://gutenberg.spiegel.de/buch/seeschlacht-612/1">Seeschlacht</a> (1918), one of the first Expressionist plays, takes the tragic model but twists its psychology and language such that what emerges is tortured and distended, a vehicle shot through with dissonant approaches. </p>
<p>Over the last hundred years playwrights have blended tragedy with other sensibilities: irony, satire, whimsy, political polemic, gothic schlock, surreal escapism, transcendence. Think Samuel Beckett’s mordant, comic tramps; Eugene Ionesco’s nonsense-spouting Bourgeoisie; Sarah Kane’s exploded isolates. </p>
<p>In one way, it’s a transformation of the form, in another a retreat from it. The hard thing in tragedy is fudged – “the bone caught in the throat,” as critic Stephen Greenblatt <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/sep/30/shakespeare-shylock/">writes</a> of the role of Shylock in The Merchant of Venice, “that can be neither coughed up nor comfortably swallowed”. </p>
<p>The bone in the throat in tragedy is that there is nothing to be done. No phone calls to make, no last-minute reprieves, no re-boots, no escape. Such spiritual and narrative finality flies in the face of modern presumptions about the plasticity of human fate. But if it really is tragedy, it is already too late. </p>
<p>Tragedy does not supply a reason for irrational destruction but it does give a shape to it. It illuminates the human condition when we are faced, as sometimes we are, with an ultimate test. Something deepens. A person becomes more who they are supposed to be. And we respond, knowing we are witnessing something important.</p>
<p>A nation that understands tragedy is one that respects limits. Tragedy is, literally, a “limit case”, an example of a person stepping beyond where they should and paying for it with everything they’ve got. Because they acknowledge their fate has a logic (if not a just one), it is not only salutary but illuminating. </p>
<p>We feel things more deeply – but also see them more clearly. We learn more about the fragile threads that bind human existence to this earth.</p>
<p>Australian drama, coming late, lacks good tragedies, though there are many plays which incorporate tragic themes, from Ray Lawler’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_of_the_Seventeenth_Doll">Summer of the Seventeenth Doll </a>(1959) to Andrew Bovell’s <a href="https://australianplays.org/script/CP-2413">When the Rain Stops Falling </a>(2008).</p>
<p>Daniel Keene, Joanna Murray-Smith, Stephen Sewell, Louis Nowra, Patricia Cornelius, all deploy the tragic sensibility as part of their compositional palate. But it is rarely the point of their work, which freights different emotional outcomes: outrage, shock, commendation, nostalgia, hope. Situations may be wrong but can be <em>fixed.</em> </p>
<p>Really, comedy rules the roost: Steele Rudd’s On Our Selection (188), Sumner Locke Elliot’s Rusty Bugles (1948), David Williamson’s Don’s Party (1973), Jack Hibberd’s Dimboola (1969), Elizabeth Coleman’s Secret Bridesmaid’s Business (1999) and so on. The list is a long one. Australian audiences like to laugh, as I have been told a hundred times. They don’t like to look at limits.</p>
<p>So tragedy is banished and the nation settles for more accommodating dramatic forms. My intuition says (though I cannot prove) that what a country denies in the theatre it is destined to meet in the street. That we can’t come at the idea of limits artistically suggests we can’t come at the idea of them socially either. </p>
<p>As our Australian way of life, led by a superficial government committed to little beyond its own pugnacity, sinks further into a venal rut, these limits, like Birnam Wood coming to Dunsinane, slowly creep closer. Another fire season gears up in Adelaide, a city that has seen little rain for three months now. </p>
<p>“Burn in hell” isn’t a line from a tragedy any more. In Australia, it’s a weather prediction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Meyrick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tragedy is a peculiar thing. More than a style, different from genre, it cuts across art forms to carve out its own non-Euclidean aesthetic space. In the 4th century BCE Aristotle, in his Poetics, famously…Julian Meyrick, Professor of Creative Arts, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/327122014-10-10T05:30:57Z2014-10-10T05:30:57ZSome key lessons for strategists from success at Siemens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/61312/original/yb49rz7b-1412872208.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Honing in on Siemens' strengths.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Siemens</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While General Electric (GE) has been the worst-performing stock on the Dow Jones this year, amid calls from analysts <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2014/09/23/investing/general-electric-stock-ge/">for the conglomerate to break up</a>, its European rival Siemens has been busy repositioning itself since Joe Kaeser took over as CEO just over a year ago.</p>
<p>The German engineering and electricals conglomerate <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29306017">recently acquired</a> industrial equipment manufacturer Dresser Rand and <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/siemens-to-sell-50-stake-in-appliance-joint-venture-to-bosch-for-3-85-billion-1411373379">sold its 50% stake of household appliance manufacturer BSH</a>. These were the two latest steps in a journey mapped out in May when Vision 2020 was announced. Siemens’ plan: focus on growth fields in electrification, automation and digitisation.</p>
<p>I have been following Siemens for more than a decade and have written two books featuring their success story dating back to 1847. Not surprisingly this was sometimes a bumpy ride. Kaeser took over from Peter Loescher who was <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-27/siemens-to-replace-ceo-peter-loescher-after-fifth-forecast-cut.html">forced to resign</a> after failing to meet ambitious profit targets. These days there is optimism again. </p>
<p>The share price has <a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SIE.DE#symbol=SIE.DE;range=1d">climbed by almost 15%</a> since the new CEO took over, beating both arch-rival GE and the general stock exchange. So how has Siemens done this? Here are three lessons we can learn from Siemens’ new strategy and more importantly its implementation. </p>
<h2>Know your strengths and play to them</h2>
<p>Stock analysts like quick fixes. But it is important for a company to understand its strengths and play to them consistently.</p>
<p>For decades, calls were made to break up Siemens, arguing that this would enhance flexibility and performance. Siemens never complied, confident that the synergy it had between its different arms would outpace the costs of co-ordinating them, if severed. At the same time it worked hard to figure out its core competence: using its engineering talent to develop solutions and equipment for industrial clients. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/61307/original/s4bfv2q2-1412871816.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/61307/original/s4bfv2q2-1412871816.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/61307/original/s4bfv2q2-1412871816.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/61307/original/s4bfv2q2-1412871816.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/61307/original/s4bfv2q2-1412871816.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/61307/original/s4bfv2q2-1412871816.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/61307/original/s4bfv2q2-1412871816.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/61307/original/s4bfv2q2-1412871816.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leaving these in the past.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Siemens_C35i_mobile_phone.jpg">Tors</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With trade liberalisation and easier access to the German market it became more and more obvious that Siemens was less suited to consumer-facing businesses. In 2005 it started a slow journey of dispensing with these, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4616515.stm">selling its loss-making mobile phone arm</a>. </p>
<p>Kaeser is now taking the final steps with the sale of the stake in BSH and the upcoming quotation of its hearing aid business on the stock exchange. At the same time he has added to its core, acquiring Rolls Royce’s gas turbine business and Dresser Rand. This gives the company access to the booming unconventional oil sector in the US. </p>
<p>Siemens’ new strategy is consistent with what it intuitively understands it is good at and this series of smaller deals is a prudent approach. The company has wisely avoided putting all its eggs in one basket by attempting a big mega-merger, choosing rather to enhance its strengths through specific deals.</p>
<h2>Even when you lose, you can win</h2>
<p>One of the most interesting aspects of Siemens’ journey over the past year was its battle with GE over the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/24/us-alstom-generalelectric-idUSKBN0EY2DC20140624">acquisition of French energy and rail group Alstom</a>. Siemens’ plan was to get its hands on the promising energy business and get rid of the weaker transport business. </p>
<p>This obviously did not work out as GE managed to win over sceptics in the French government. But Siemens’ bid drove up the costs of the acquisition for GE considerably. Great companies know that sometimes you enter fights you cannot win in order to gain something different. In this case a less attractive deal for GE. </p>
<p>Great companies also understand that bad performance provides rare windows of opportunity to introduce more radical change. The ousting of Loescher highlighted the increasing pressure to improve profitability. </p>
<p>This gave Kaeser a license for change. Even though outsiders often think that a CEO always has this license, the truth is that a large and complex organisation can “sit out” a CEO. What helps as well, is that Kaeser is a trusted Siemens lifer who has the necessary networks and credibility to drive through this change.</p>
<h2>Keeping your options open</h2>
<p>A successful strategy has to fit with the business environment. As the environment is in a constant flux, great companies need to make sure they have some flexibility. Siemens’ relatively broad portfolio has historically given them this flexibility. </p>
<p>For example Siemens was not overly affected by the financial crisis, whereas GE suffered from its exposure to the financial industry – usually the main driver of its strong profitability. Kaeser is keeping the company fairly diversified but has also taken additional steps. </p>
<p>Most importantly he has structurally separated the medical equipment business. This allows the business to adjust better to its markets. It also allows the medical equipment business to go to the stock market to finance big investments without tapping into Siemens’ coffers and if necessary the business can be sold entirely. </p>
<p>Another pragmatic decision has been a joint venture with Mitsubishi-Hitachi Heavy Machinery to create a global supplier of metals technologies. This allows Siemens to exit more easily at some point in the future. At the same time they can benefit from a promising business at arms-length just as they did with BSH for almost 50 years. </p>
<p>Overall Siemens is on a good track. Its strategy implementation is a step-by-step process where executives realise that consistency matters. Often companies fail because they try to do too much and do not put sufficient energy into sorting out the details. Siemens has historically had the patience to get things right and at the moment the stock market is rewarding this.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Stadler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While General Electric (GE) has been the worst-performing stock on the Dow Jones this year, amid calls from analysts for the conglomerate to break up, its European rival Siemens has been busy repositioning…Christian Stadler, Professor of Strategic Management, Warwick Business School, Warwick Business School, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/311422014-09-02T11:45:03Z2014-09-02T11:45:03ZNow we know why it’s so hard to deceive children<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57892/original/qpnh9hv9-1409582950.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Not so easy to beat me.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/arichards-gallery/11164177786/">arichards-gallery</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Daily interactions require bargaining, be it for food, money or even making plans. These situations inevitably lead to a conflict of interest as both parties seek to maximise their gains. To deal with them, we need to understand the other person’s intentions, beliefs and desires and then use that to inform our bargaining strategy. </p>
<p>New research published just in the <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/08/27/1403283111.abstract">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</a> suggests that this skill develops remarkably early in childhood, as early as age seven.</p>
<h2>Understanding minds</h2>
<p><a href="http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=7131588&fileId=S0140525X00076512">Theory of mind</a>, or ToM, is the intuitive understanding of one’s own and other people’s minds. By understanding that other people can have thoughts different from our own, it enables us to infer what they are thinking. And because people act on their intentions and desires, we can use this to predict their behaviour. For example, if your friend leaves the house with an umbrella, we understand that it is because she thinks it will rain.</p>
<p>This skill underpins almost every social interaction. Notably it is thought to be one of the key abilities that is <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0010027785900228">absent in autism</a>.</p>
<p>A crucial test of this theory is the ability to attribute false beliefs to others. For example, if a child was to tell you that she is putting her tooth under the pillow for the tooth fairy, although you know that the tooth fairy does not exist, you understand that her behaviour is being driven by the mistaken belief that it does.</p>
<p>Children start learning some of these skills needed to spot false beliefs quite early in life. For example, some two-year-olds seem to have an understanding that their thoughts can be <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/rev/94/4/412/">different from the state of reality</a>, as shown through pretend play, which starts to develop around this time. Similarly, it seems three-year-olds have an awareness that thoughts exist. For example, they understand mental entities have different properties to physical ones – that is, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065240708604127">you can’t touch a dream</a>. But the ability to attribute false beliefs to another person does not develop till children are older than four.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57898/original/jmj5sym5-1409585245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57898/original/jmj5sym5-1409585245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57898/original/jmj5sym5-1409585245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57898/original/jmj5sym5-1409585245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57898/original/jmj5sym5-1409585245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57898/original/jmj5sym5-1409585245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57898/original/jmj5sym5-1409585245.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">No cheating!</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tocaboca/5523596357">tocaboca</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1983, psychologists tried to test these skills through a simple experiment. In one version, a puppet named Maxi puts a chocolate in a cupboard and leaves the room. The experimenter moves the chocolate to a new location and asks the child where Maxi will look for it when he comes back. Three-year-olds ascribe their own belief about where the chocolate is to Maxi, telling the experimenter that Maxi will look in the new location. Four-year-olds, in contrast, are able to understand that Maxi will look where he left the chocolate – in the cupboard.</p>
<p>This is one of the most robust, and fundamental milestones in early cognition. Interestingly, it also explains why three-year-olds are <a href="http://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=NGFnIMle4yYC&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=deception+AND+lie+AND+lewis&ots=uCO0P_Qmu2&sig=eW8IJMRY9UR4j-7PCCq0mDXu-EU#v=onepage&q=deception%20AND%20lie%20AND%20lewis&f=false">terrible liars</a>. You can’t deceive if you don’t have a theory of mind.</p>
<h2>Strategic theory of mind</h2>
<p>While we know there are significant developments in their understanding of such skills between the ages of three and four, we know little about how it develops in older children. Also, given its importance in deception, little research has looked at theory of mind’s role in strategic thinking and bargaining.</p>
<p>The new study looks at children’s ability to combine theory of mind with strategic thinking, which the researchers call “strategic theory of mind”. This addition involves understanding not just beliefs, desires and intentions but adding a layer of why people may have them. This additional layer involves incentives and is best illustrated by an example.</p>
<p>Suppose John has an incentive to lie to his wife, Mary, about where he went last night. Similarly, Mary knows that John will lie so she will not believe him. However, John conducts the same reasoning process and decides that Mary will know he is lying. Therefore, he concludes from this that he is better off telling the truth.</p>
<p>The study wanted to test this ability in a group of three to eight-year-olds as well as adults in a competitive environment. Children played games covering two prevalent aspects of social interaction – competition and deception.</p>
<p>In the first game, a child and an experimenter selected between one and five stickers. Whoever selected fewer stickers got to keep all the stickers, while the other player received nothing. If both players selected the same number, neither kept any stickers. Interestingly, they found that most children younger than four years couldn’t help taking five stickers, even though this strategy always lead to a loss. In contrast, seven-year-olds chose the optimal strategy of choosing one or two stickers, similar to adults.</p>
<p>The other game involved one player, a sender, communicating to the other, a receiver, about the location of a sweet by pointing at one of two boxes. If the receiver correctly guessed the location, they kept the sweet, and otherwise the sender kept it, giving the sender a potential incentive to deceive. They found that when those older than age seven played the sender, they used a highly sophisticated strategy used by adults. They were mainly deceitful, but with occasional acts of honesty to ensure the experimenter did not always select the other box.</p>
<h2>Seven, the magic number</h2>
<p>Why does this skill emerge at age seven? Could it be that what is developing is children’s increasing ability to suppress unhelpful responses? </p>
<p>Young children are <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8624.1998.tb06236.x/abstract">remarkably bad</a> at suppressing the urge to say or do something they want when it is not appropriate or helpful to do so. For example, it could be that children perform badly because the thought of the sticker or sweet that they want overrides their ability to think strategically. This would explain why younger children can’t help but grab all the stickers, and why they can’t help pointing to the box with the sweet despite this meaning they lose them. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0896627312000773">Research has shown</a> this is an important factor in children’s ability to play strategic games.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57889/original/jmk9qh8b-1409582302.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57889/original/jmk9qh8b-1409582302.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57889/original/jmk9qh8b-1409582302.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57889/original/jmk9qh8b-1409582302.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57889/original/jmk9qh8b-1409582302.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57889/original/jmk9qh8b-1409582302.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57889/original/jmk9qh8b-1409582302.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/lwr/101651382">lwr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
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<p>The lead author of the paper, Itai Sher at the University of Minnesota, said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We think that for the oldest children, the decisions are explained by forward-looking behaviour. In both the stickers game and the sender-receiver game, children appear to perform a greater number of steps of recursive thinking as they age.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another possibility is that children’s <a href="http://www.york.ac.uk/res/wml/Classroom%20guide.pdf">working memory</a> helps performance on the task. This cognitive skill allows children to keep in mind goals and information. The skill would be crucial for remembering the rules of the game and keeping track of the other person’s behaviours. </p>
<p>In line with this, the researchers found that children with better working memory were more likely to use sophisticated strategies on the stickers game. They also found that working memory significantly developed between the ages of six and seven. The next steps, Sher suggested, will be to identify why this skill suddenly emerges at age seven and how working memory relates to this important skill.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Blakey receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Wellcome Trust.</span></em></p>Daily interactions require bargaining, be it for food, money or even making plans. These situations inevitably lead to a conflict of interest as both parties seek to maximise their gains. To deal with…Emma Blakey, PhD researcher in developmental psychology, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/246502014-03-21T06:07:00Z2014-03-21T06:07:00ZGovernment links complicate Malaysia Airlines’ crisis response<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44413/original/8dddgbkz-1395336157.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malaysia Airlines' comms strategy should be grounded.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/monstermunch/3327611491/">Andy Mitchell</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even as we learn more about the disappearance of flight MH370, there is still a huge amount to find out about what went wrong.</p>
<p>There is no evidence to suggest that the cause of the airplane’s disappearance had anything to do with operational oversight or management mishap on the part of Malaysia’s national flag carrier, Malaysia Airlines. The crisis appears to be caused by forces beyond the control of any airline’s management team. </p>
<p>But their subsequent handling of the crisis has been far from competent. There are structural reasons for this: it turns out the airline’s close relationship with the Malaysian government, so useful in the past, may have actually hindered its efforts to put customers first and deliver the best response to the disappearance of MH370. </p>
<p>The airline’s response has been characterised by a lack of prompt and detailed information sharing with the media and relatives of missing passengers, defensive PR posturing, and not displaying a sense of urgency or a clear process for effective crisis management. </p>
<p>This managerial ineptitude has gone from bad to worse, accentuated by heavy-handed security measures when dealing with the relatives of the disappeared. What commercial enterprise dispatches security staff to physically prevent the protesting relatives of missing customers from speaking to international journalists? Clearly not one paying head to the Chinese proverb, “a crisis is an opportunity riding the dangerous wind”. </p>
<p>The opportunity here is to show the watching world that in the face of unexplained calamity, Malaysia Airlines is a company that cares for its customers more than anything else and will stop at nothing to ensure their wellbeing – or at least to provide closure to their loved ones.</p>
<h2>Here’s how it’s done</h2>
<p>Trust and reliability are at the heart of most relationships between customer and business. When things go wrong, companies must confront them unequivocally, act immediately and deliver decisive solutions. </p>
<p>This is what Johnson & Johnson, the pharmaceutical and consumer products corporation, did in a <a href="http://www.ou.edu/deptcomm/dodjcc/groups/02C2/Johnson%20&%20Johnson.htm">classic case</a> of good crisis management. A handful of its best selling painkillers Tylenol had been laced with cyanide, resulting in the deaths of seven people. Johnson & Johnson placed consumers first, immediately recalling 31m bottles of Tylenol and replacing them with safer, more securely packaged products. </p>
<p>Despite an initial drop in market value of $1 billion and losing 30% of its share of the painkiller market, predictions that the company would never recover from the crisis proved unfounded. It had done the right thing and acted without hesitation or equivocation to put customer safety ahead of corporate interest. People recognised this and within a short space of time, market value picked up and sales rebounded. But if handled differently, the Tylenol crisis could have destroyed the company.</p>
<p>The lessons for Malaysia Airlines are clear. If attitudes and actions are not altered at once, its future may be fraught with further challenges and commercial crises.</p>
<p>Despite recent restructuring and financial pressures, this is an airline with a long history (founded in 1937) and a reputation for quality service and high levels of safety. However its corporate strategy is complicated – even restrained – by the interests and priorities of key stakeholders, most notably in this instance, its main shareholder, the government of Malaysia. </p>
<p>This isn’t usually a problem. In most instances, companies benefit from preferential access to government and regulatory bodies. A strategy that synchronises making money with political and regulatory activism and social and environmental engagement is best for any company. Done properly, it can ensure that senior management successfully deliver on a company’s overarching purpose and business objectives. </p>
<p>But when the interests of the company, and the customers it serves, become diluted or even subjugated by other interests – personal, societal or political – competitive strategy is undermined. That appears to be the case here; the airline has in fact suffered from its close links to government. </p>
<p>Why, for instance, since the disappearance of MH370, do we hear more from Malaysia’s prime minister and transport minister than we do from the CEO of Malaysia Airlines? </p>
<p>This crisis is not about saving face for the government of Malaysia, navigating tense inter-state relations (particularly with the emerging Chinese superpower), or tiptoeing through a geopolitical minefield. It is first and foremost about finding out what happened to Malaysia Airlines’ missing passengers. </p>
<p>Subsequently, it is about restoring market and customer confidence in a company that employs more than 20,000 people and is integral to Malaysia’s economy. The rest is just noise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24650/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Lawton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even as we learn more about the disappearance of flight MH370, there is still a huge amount to find out about what went wrong. There is no evidence to suggest that the cause of the airplane’s disappearance…Thomas Lawton, Professor of Strategy and International Management, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.