tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/sydney-siege-14061/articlesSydney siege – The Conversation2017-10-05T19:05:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/852492017-10-05T19:05:32Z2017-10-05T19:05:32ZCOAG meeting on counter-terrorism was more about politics than practice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188920/original/file-20171005-21980-3wqivf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The key messages from Thursday's COAG meeting were about co-operation and a nationally consistent approach to counter-terrorism.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Given the persistent and serious <a href="https://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/Securityandyourcommunity/Pages/National-Terrorism-Threat-Advisory-System.aspx">threat of terrorism</a>, national discussions about the direction of Australia’s counter-terrorism strategy should be encouraged. </p>
<p>However, such discussions require robust follow-up – not merely announcements about “getting tough” on terrorism – if they are to improve responses to terrorism in practice.</p>
<p>As might be expected, the key messages from Thursday’s special Council of Australian Governments (COAG) <a href="https://www.coag.gov.au/meeting-outcomes/special-meeting-council-australian-governments-counter-terrorism-communique">meeting</a> were about co-operation and a nationally consistent approach to counter-terrorism. The COAG discussion also focused on facial recognition software, pre-charge detention, and new criminal offences for terrorism.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/leaders-agree-to-hand-over-driver-licence-data-as-part-of-coag-counter-terror-package-85251">Leaders agree to hand over driver licence data as part of COAG counter-terror package</a></strong></em></p>
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<h2>‘Interoperability’</h2>
<p>Interoperability means different government agencies should co-operate effectively, and be willing to share information openly and efficiently. It’s a political buzzword that’s difficult to say and even harder to achieve in practice.</p>
<p>In the case of a terrorist attack, this means police and security agencies need to share intelligence, evidence and administrative data in real time, as events unfold. The <a href="http://www.lindtinquest.justice.nsw.gov.au/">coronial inquest into the Sydney siege</a> revealed the operational problems created when police and security agencies fail to share information on an offender quickly and openly.</p>
<p>The benefits of improving information-sharing may be obvious, but the success of any changes to law or policy will depend heavily on buy-in from the agencies. </p>
<p>Complex privacy law requirements can make agencies <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/58112-open-data-government-public-benefit/">reluctant to share personal information</a> about an offender. This is exacerbated if they remain culturally resistant to sharing their information.</p>
<h2>Facial recognition</h2>
<p>COAG revealed there will be greater sharing of biometric data and facial recognition technology across state boundaries. </p>
<p>Agencies in all jurisdictions will have access to facial recognition software that can match CCTV footage with passports and other identity documents. </p>
<p>The full capability of this technology is not yet clear. However, it is already <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-05/facial-recognition-coag-privacy-concerns-about-the-capability/9017494">raising concerns</a> about increased scrutiny of Australian travellers and the possibility of criminals hacking biometric databases.</p>
<h2>Pre-charge detention</h2>
<p>Pre-charge detention is the amount of time police can detain a person following their arrest and before they must be charged and brought before a court. During that time, the arrested person may be questioned and the police may collect additional evidence.</p>
<p>Currently, the maximum limit of pre-charge detention for terrorism offences differs across Australia. Under <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ca191482/">federal law</a>, the maximum is eight days (including so-called “dead time”, which can be excluded for administrative purposes). In <a href="https://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/%7E/view/act/2002/115">New South Wales</a>, it’s 14 days, while in other states it’s seven days or less. </p>
<p>The federal government is proposing to raise the limit in all jurisdictions to 14 days.</p>
<p>Consistency in pre-charge detention for terrorism is welcome. There is no reason why NSW Police should be able to detain a terrorist offender for more than twice as long as police in other states. However, the government has not made a strong case to justify why the longest period of pre-charge detention should be applied across the board. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull offered the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-pushes-for-law-to-detain-terror-suspects-for-up-to-14-days-before-charges-20171003-gytill.html">recent Sydney terror raids</a> as an example of why the changes are needed. That case involved a more rushed police investigation following a <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/2017-07-31/details-emerge-of-foiled-terror-plot-to-bring-down-plane-in-australia/">tip-off from an overseas intelligence service</a>, as well as complex physical evidence including explosives and chemicals.</p>
<p>Even in that complex case, it seems that nothing close to a 14-day limit was required. One man was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-02/sydney-terror-raids:-man-released-without-charge/8765874">released without charge</a> after three days; two more were <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/two-men-charged-over-sydney-terror-plot-to-bring-down-plane-20170803-gxoyse.html">charged with terrorism offences</a> within five days, and the fourth man was <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/national-security/sydney-terror-plot-fourth-man-charged/news-story/26148a893c79e77a284119fc76ecaee8">charged with a non-terrorism offence</a> after eight days. </p>
<p>The appropriate upper limit on pre-charge detention is unclear, but the risks of lengthy pre-charge detention are evident. In 2007, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/inside-story-of-the-bungled-haneef-case/2008/10/24/1224351544028.html">Mohamed Haneef</a> was detained for 12 days for an alleged connection to an attempted attack on Glasgow International Airport. He was released without charge and later received an <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-12-21/haneef-wins-substantial-compensation-settlement/2382174">undisclosed sum as compensation</a> for the bungled investigation. </p>
<p>In response to the Haneef affair, the Rudd government placed a seven-day limit on the amount of dead time that could be claimed by police. This was done to prevent these kinds of mishaps from happening again.</p>
<h2>New offences</h2>
<p>Two new criminal offences have also been proposed: one for possessing terrorist instructional materials, and another to strengthen offences for “hoax” attacks.</p>
<p>It is not clear why an offence for possessing instructional materials is needed, as multiple similar offences have existed since 2002. Under the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cca1995115/sch1.html">Commonwealth Criminal Code</a>, it is a serious offence to collect or make documents likely to facilitate terrorism, to possess any “thing” connected with preparation for terrorism, or to train with a terrorist organisation. </p>
<p>Following the post-9/11 anthrax scares in the US, offences for “hoax” terror attacks were also introduced in Australia. These laws make it an offence to phone in a fake bomb threat or post a substance through the mail, where doing so would induce a false belief of terrorism. </p>
<p>And, by virtue of Australia’s broad statutory definition of terrorism, all terrorism offences apply to the “threat” of an attack. </p>
<p>These proposed changes have more to do with “getting tough” on terrorism than with filling gaps in the criminal law. After seeing Turnbull <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-18/qanda-pm-questioned-over-soldiers/8716818">flanked by special forces soldiers</a> and now <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/10/03/turnbull-dismisses-privacy-concerns-in-asking-for-a-national-facial-recognition-database_a_23231863/">tactical response police</a>, one wonders whom he will pose with next.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85249/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keiran Hardy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>National discussions about counter-terrorism strategy are welcome, but require robust follow-up if they are to improve responses to terrorism.Keiran Hardy, Lecturer, School of Criminology and Criminal Justice and Member, Griffith Criminology Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/795632017-06-19T00:35:48Z2017-06-19T00:35:48ZA national amnesty will not rid Australia of violent gun crime<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174141/original/file-20170616-537-3xa1d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michael Keenan claims an amnesty will help get illegal guns off Australian streets.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Caroline Schelle</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After <a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/victoria-leads-national-blueprint-on-illegal-firearms/">18 months</a> of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/10/20/illegal-gun-amnesty-to-begin-in-2017-thousands-to-be-surrende_a_21588610/">false</a> <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/gun-amnesty-announced-by-turnbull-government/news-story/2ebd0798dcd456a6f16089c3be69654c">starts</a>, Australia is about to hold another gun amnesty for three months from July 1.</p>
<p>Last week, Justice Minister Michael Keenan claimed the amnesty would take illegal guns off Australian streets. He went on to <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/06/16/federal-governments-three-month-national-amnesty-targets-260000-guns">link the amnesty with terrorism</a>, citing the <a href="http://www.lindtinquest.justice.nsw.gov.au/">Lindt Cafe siege</a> and the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/farhad-jabar-captured-giving-islamic-state-salute-before-curtis-cheng-shooting-20170501-gvwn36.html">murder of Curtis Cheng</a> as examples.</p>
<p>In a time when the spectre of terrorism is increasingly used as both a shield to prevent scrutiny of policies and a sword to attack anybody who criticises government decisions, we would do well not to accept at face value Keenan’s claims. So, are gun amnesties an effective way of tackling serious criminal activity?</p>
<h2>What is an ‘illegal gun’?</h2>
<p>To legally own a firearm in Australia, you must have a licence.</p>
<p>Since 1996, all firearms must be registered. Unregistered firearms are illegal.</p>
<p>Anyone who possesses a firearm without holding a licence, or without the appropriate category of licence for that firearm, is in illegal possession. </p>
<p>“Illegal guns” occur in many different situations. These range from licence holders who may have registered some – but not all – of their firearms after that requirement was introduced, to people whose licence has expired but who still have registered guns, to people who would <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/cop-killer-rick-maddisons-violent-past/news-story/a5cfb235eb709654bfe3a686fa7c45fc">never be able to obtain a firearm licence</a> but nevertheless possess prohibited firearms.</p>
<h2>How will the amnesty work?</h2>
<p>Each state and territory is responsible for its own amnesty. It is likely they will look similar to the many amnesties that have run around Australia on a periodic – and <a href="http://www.police.tas.gov.au/services-online/firearms/amnesty-surrender-firearms/">sometimes permanent</a> – basis in the last 20 years. </p>
<p>There has been no modelling of how many firearms are likely to be handed in, and the numbers collected under past amnesties vary greatly. Unlike 1996, there will be no <a href="https://www.anao.gov.au/sites/g/files/net616/f/anao_report_1997-98_25.pdf">government-funded compensation scheme</a>. </p>
<p>Although <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/australian-criminal-intelligence-commission-report-finds-3-million-legal-600000-illegal-guns-in-australia/news-story/be3ca11f86c8acd2f52fe9b8764c847f">guesstimates abound</a>, there is no way of knowing how many illegally owned firearms exist. There are no accurate records of how many firearms were in Australia before gun laws changed in 1996. </p>
<p>Even though there are figures for the number of guns handed in under previous amnesties, we cannot say what that translates to as a percentage of the total pool of illegal firearms. </p>
<p>We also have no knowledge about how many guns flow into the black market through means such as <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/qld-man-charged-over-homemade-machine-guns/news-story/b20806199a5749f4dbf9cf15f6de76eb">illegal manufacture</a> or <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2017/05/15/4667550.htm">illegal importation</a>. </p>
<h2>Do amnesties reduce gun crime?</h2>
<p>Despite talking up the amnesty, Keenan <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;orderBy=customrank;page=0;query=gun%20amnesty%20keenan;rec=5;resCount=Default">also said</a> it is:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… probably not going to be the case [that] we would have hardened criminals who have made a big effort to get a hand on illegal guns [who] would necessarily be handing them in.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This explains why gun amnesties are not a particularly effective response to firearm crime. <a href="http://www.popcenter.org/problems/gun_violence/PDFs/Reuter_Mouzos_2003.pdf">Australian</a> and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/epirev/mxv012">international</a> <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24156172">evidence</a> <a href="http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/8/2/143">suggests</a> the people who respond to amnesties are characteristically “low risk”: they are not the ones likely to be involved in violence. </p>
<p>It may sound clichéd to say that “high risk” people do not <a href="https://www.triplem.com.au/news/national/police-union-has-doubts-about-gun-amnesty">hand in their guns</a>, but it also appears to be correct. </p>
<h2>What about organised crime and terrorism?</h2>
<p>Illegal firearms are found in a range of criminal activities, including organised crime and <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-some-acts-are-classified-as-terrorism-but-others-arent-76013?sa=pg2&sq=terrorism&sr=18">incidents described as “terrorism”</a>. </p>
<p>The argument runs that by reducing the number of guns, amnesties will reduce the <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/crime-and-justice/national-firearms-amnesty-takes-aim-at-australias-illegal-weapons/news-story/bc53a27496c995b797e46a2a9f7f656f">number that are stolen</a> and curtail the ability of high-risk individuals – “hardened” criminals or otherwise – to get their hands on black market guns.</p>
<p>However, available evidence does not support arguments about theft as a key source of crime gun supply. Although little data is publicly released about crime gun sources, <a href="https://www.acic.gov.au/sites/g/files/net1491/f/2016/10/illicit_firearms_in_australia_0.pdf?v=1477016769">what we know</a> suggests theft accounts for less than 10% of guns traced in relation to criminal activity.</p>
<p>Problematically, many guns come from <a href="https://www.acic.gov.au/sites/g/files/net1491/f/2016/10/illicit_firearms_in_australia_0.pdf?v=1477016769">“unknown” sources</a>. For example, there was no record of the sawn-off shotgun used in the <a href="http://www.lindtinquest.justice.nsw.gov.au/Documents/findings-and-recommendations.pdf">Lindt Cafe siege</a> ever legally entering the country, and it seems the revolver <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-19/curtis-cheng-accused-guilty-plea-terrorist-act/8542490">used to murder Curtis Cheng</a> has <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/curtis-cheng-parramatta-murder-intense-police-hunt-for-terrorists-but-meet-the-one-who-got-away/news-story/3492d0b24b31e3a1635edc6232b7307e">equally vague</a> origins.</p>
<p>We also know from international studies that criminals are resourceful and highly adaptable. When one source of firearm supply closes off, they <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743515001486">typically have networks</a> enabling them to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10611-011-9340-3">switch to</a> <a href="http://home.uchicago.edu/ludwigj/papers/JCrimLC%202015%20Guns%20in%20Chicago.pdf">alternative sources</a>.</p>
<p>This is part of the reason why tackling criminal possession of firearms is so challenging. And when we think about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/good-news-fatal-shootings-are-now-less-common-in-australia-nz-canada-and-even-the-us-39993">drivers of demand for illegal guns</a> as well as supply, responding becomes <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbotts-national-security-changes-are-unlikely-to-make-us-safer-37709?sa=pg2&sq=terrorism+complex&sr=5">even more difficult</a>. </p>
<p>This is why it is disappointing that Australian thinking follows such predictable, well-trodden paths. It seems politicians and bureaucrats tasked with developing firearm policies have little interest in new, innovative, and evidence-based responses to complex problems, and would rather just do more of what they have been doing for decades.</p>
<p>By all means run amnesties. There is no harm in them. They provide a great means for people who want to obey the law to get rid of guns that are unwanted or that they may not legally possess. </p>
<p>But let’s be realistic about what amnesties are, and are not, likely to deliver.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79563/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samara McPhedran does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. Dr McPhedran has been appointed to a number of firearms advisory panels and committees, most recently as a member of the Queensland Ministerial Advisory Panel on Firearms, and as a previous member of the Commonwealth Firearms Advisory Council. She does not receive any financial remuneration for these activities. She holds memberships with, and volunteers for, a range of not-for-profit firearm-related organisations and women's advocacy groups. She is not a member of any political party.</span></em></p>Let’s be realistic about what gun amnesties are, and are not, likely to deliver.Samara McPhedran, Senior Research Fellow, Violence Research and Prevention Program, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/789292017-06-06T09:48:40Z2017-06-06T09:48:40ZPolitics podcast: John Blaxland on handling Islamist terrorism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172422/original/file-20170606-3690-umjkq3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C443%2C3024%2C1928&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Events in Britain, the New South Wales coroner’s report on the Lindt Cafe siege, and a new attack in Australia have given a much sharper edge to the debate about how to handle Islamist terrorism.</p>
<p>Amid the hype, ANU security expert John Blaxland provides a reality check. He says while there’s an escalation of and change in the nature of terrorist attacks, collaboration between Australian police and intelligence services is world class.</p>
<p>On the Lindt Cafe siege, Blaxland says that although in hindsight the police could have done things differently, it’s “preposterous” to insist the special forces were required to resolve it. “We actually need to be very circumspect about over-committing our military.”</p>
<p>He’s sceptical of the push for a homeland security department, saying a “refined set of arrangements” is in place for interdepartmental co-operation.</p>
<p>On the question of the local Muslim population, he says most don’t subscribe to a fundamentalist, expansionist Islam – violent jihadists are outliers. “They’re people that have been on the edge, if not mentally then certainly socially.”</p>
<p>Speaking about this week’s revelations of Chinese influence in Australia, Blaxland says the scale is enormous and unprecedented. “We have had an ongoing growing tension emerge between our security and strategic consciousnesses and our economic consciousness.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Events in Britain, the New South Wales coroner's report on the Lindt Cafe siege, and a new attack in Australia have given a much sharper edge to the debate about how to handle Islamist terrorism.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/787002017-06-01T12:28:52Z2017-06-01T12:28:52ZGrattan on Friday: Now it’s the ASIO chief who is the target of the vocal right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171811/original/file-20170601-25664-1n92m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">ASIO head Duncan Lewis set off a new round of debate when he told Pauline Hanson there was no link between terrorism and refugees.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The most unfortunate aspect of the controversy surrounding ASIO chief Duncan Lewis is that it has given a free kick to those who want to sharpen a divisive debate about Australia’s refugee intake and Muslim immigrants generally.</p>
<p>And the irony is that’s just what Lewis – who formerly served as special forces commander and secretary of the defence department – seemed to be trying to avoid when he found himself in the sights of Pauline Hanson at a late-night Senate estimates hearing last week.</p>
<p>Hanson asked: “Do you believe that the threat [of terrorism] is being brought in, possibly, by Middle Eastern refugees that are coming out to Australia?” Lewis’ reply was categoric: “I have absolutely no evidence to suggest there is a connection between refugees and terrorism”.</p>
<p>His answer lacked the nuance needed to make it 100% accurate. Critics could quickly point to the fact that those responsible for recent Australian incidents have been from a refugee background. Man Haron Monis, who in 2014 terrorised hostages in the Lindt Cafe, was a refugee; perpetrators of the Melbourne Endeavour Hills attack of 2014 and the Parramatta 2015 shooting were from refugee families.</p>
<p>This week Lewis, while continuing to reject the underlying proposition in Hanson’s question, tried to put precision into his response, telling the ABC: “The reason they are terrorists is not because they are refugees but because of the violent extremist interpretation of Sunni Islam that they have adopted”.</p>
<p>The government and the opposition formed a solid block of defence of Lewis.</p>
<p>But he had made himself vulnerable to an onslaught from the right commentariat and to criticism from former prime minister Tony Abbott.</p>
<p>While acknowledging ASIO and other agencies needed to maintain good links with the Muslim community, Abbott declared Lewis needed to “think again on this issue”, adding that “too many people pussyfoot around the fact that just about every terrorist incident of recent times involves someone killing in the name of Islam”.</p>
<p>Heading ASIO in the current environment borders on a nightmare job. The intelligence organisation struggles – with considerable success, it has foiled multiple plans – to stay ahead of the plotters, seeking to thwart them before they can do harm. Any sloppy work or other failures could end in disaster.</p>
<p>As part of this effort, ASIO must tap into the Muslim community in an effective way. The more co-operation it can get from within that community – and it has been receiving it, although not universally – the greater the chance it will elicit information to prevent attacks. </p>
<p>Equally important, early alerts will see ASIO better placed to help combat the radicalisation that leads to attacks.</p>
<p>More generally, there is the challenge of promoting general harmony in a multicultural society in edgy times that, for example, have just seen the Manchester atrocity and the coroner’s report on the Lindt siege, which generated intense debate about the handling of that incident.</p>
<p>Many on the right of the political spectrum stridently demand that “radical Islam” be discussed more. The flip side of that could be to stir discord and drive ordinary, law-abiding Muslims into their shell – which would be counter-productive, not least for ASIO.</p>
<p>The right also wants a more assimilationist approach taken towards Muslims.</p>
<p>In an article in Thursday’s Daily Telegraph Abbott wrote that we should “start insisting on one set of rules for all Australians” and condemned governments “giving ‘professional Muslims’ platforms (via official advisory bodies) that end up promoting difference and making identity politics worse”.</p>
<p>And in a direct crack at Malcolm Turnbull’s Ramadan gesture, he said: “I can understand the thinking behind the Iftar dinner at Kirribilli House last year but its practical impact was to give hardliners a status denied to integrated Muslims let alone leaders of other faiths”.</p>
<p>In the thrust of his comments this week, Abbott, while being careful, is positioning himself at a distance from the official line of the government as it deals with the fallout of Lewis’ assessment.</p>
<p>In relation to the refugee question, the issues should be recognised but a greater attempt made to have them put in proportion.</p>
<p>Yes, it is possible potential terrorists could slip in as part of the refugee program – just as some criminals found their way to Australia in the post-WW2 program. But we have strict security checks so the chances are minimised, while never completely eliminated.</p>
<p>And yes, taking Muslim refugees – and indeed Muslim non-refugee immigrants – does mean there is a cohort whose children can be targeted for Islamist radicalisation. But it would be reprehensible if this were used as a reason for Australia turning its back on these people, the overwhelming majority of whom become good citizens, as will their children.</p>
<p>In an uncertain world, we have to accept and deal with modest dangers for the sake of the wider good, which includes fulfilling the obligations of a rich and privileged country.</p>
<p>The government is trying to get the argument across. Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce said on Thursday that “99.99% of people who are refugees are not terrorists”. In his inimitable style Joyce rejected the refugee-terrorist linkage: “That’s like saying they are all blokes. So do you think there’s a link between testicles and terrorism?”</p>
<p>Even Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, often condemned by the left for his lack of heart, said: “If people want to criticise this government in relation to the refugee program or the immigration program, well criticise me. I’m the person in charge of this portfolio.” Of course if the refugee program became a serious target, so would Dutton, as the minister responsible.</p>
<p>The background to Hanson’s question to Lewis is her attitude to Muslims generally and Muslim immigration in particular. “We are in danger of being swamped by Muslims, who bear a culture and ideology that is incompatible with our own,” she said in her Senate maiden speech, in which she called for a halt to further Muslim immigration.</p>
<p>It is a mantra that the mainstream leaders, despite their hyper-partisanship on most issues, know they must stand united against if it is not to take a wider hold.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In an uncertain world, we have to accept and deal with modest dangers for the sake of the wider good, which includes fulfilling the obligations of a rich and privileged country.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/783902017-05-29T20:11:30Z2017-05-29T20:11:30ZShould we negotiate with terrorist hostage takers?<p>The <a href="http://www.lindtinquest.justice.nsw.gov.au/Documents/findings-and-recommendations.pdf">coroner’s report</a> into the Lindt Cafe siege questioned the adequacy of the New South Wales police negotiation. But is it possible to negotiate with terrorists?</p>
<p>Hostage negotiation has been described as one of the most effective developments <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bsl.2370040406/full">in law enforcement</a>. Originating in the early 1970s, it was developed as a systematic approach to minimise casualties. This followed <a href="http://nypost.com/2016/08/20/the-true-story-of-the-attica-prison-riot/">several hostage incidents</a> that resulted in significant loss of lives, such as the Munich massacre (below). </p>
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<p>Hostage negotiation strategies focus on the idea of <a href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/academia.edu.documents/11808772/crisis_hostage_negotiation_current_stratagies_and_issues_in_high_risk_conflict_resolution.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAIWOWYYGZ2Y53UL3A&Expires=1495945562&Signature=5Vn4gWxVI5lC9OxRkQMx9mjwwEM%3D&response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3Dcrisis_hostage_negotiation_current_strat.pdf">“contain and negotiate”</a>. “Contain” means ensuring the hostage takers and hostages remain in one location under the supervision and control of police. This prevents further hostages being taken. When the situation is contained, negotiation can begin.</p>
<p>While acknowledging that police may need to use force, this is a last resort, because tactical assaults present a <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21599359-no-knock-raids-assault-weapons-and-armoured-cars-americas-police-use-paramilitary-tactics-too">high risk of casualties</a>. </p>
<p>The first <a href="https://www.psychceu.com/miller/Miller_Hostage_Neg.pdf">15 to 45 minutes</a> of a hostage situation are considered the most dangerous. It is a period of high emotion among hostages and hostage takers. When emotion is high, rational thinking and the ability to identify non-violent solutions <a href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/academia.edu.documents/11808772/crisis_hostage_negotiation_current_stratagies_and_issues_in_high_risk_conflict_resolution.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAIWOWYYGZ2Y53UL3A&Expires=1495945562&Signature=5Vn4gWxVI5lC9OxRkQMx9mjwwEM%3D&response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3Dcrisis_hostage_negotiation_current_strat.pdf">are compromised</a>, which elevates the risk of violence. Contemporary approaches to hostage negotiation therefore aim to stabilise the situation and de-escalate emotion. </p>
<p><a href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/academia.edu.documents/11808772/crisis_hostage_negotiation_current_stratagies_and_issues_in_high_risk_conflict_resolution.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAIWOWYYGZ2Y53UL3A&Expires=1495945562&Signature=5Vn4gWxVI5lC9OxRkQMx9mjwwEM%3D&response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3Dcrisis_hostage_negotiation_current_strat.pdf">Crisis intervention</a> has become an important element in hostage negotiation. Emotion de-escalation is emphasised as a prerequisite before any negotiations can occur. </p>
<p>The negotiator adopts a calm, non-judgmental demeanour and uses active listening techniques. This helps model and encourage calm in the hostage takers. It gives them opportunity to raise concerns and demands, signals empathy for them, and helps establish rapport by signalling the hostage taker has been heard. </p>
<p>Only when rapport is established is the hostage taker likely to listen to, and be influenced by, the negotiator. This is a slow, deliberate process. Attempting to proceed too quickly is where negotiations often fail. </p>
<p>Most hostage takers make demands, and how these are dealt with is fundamental. A general principle is to <a href="https://www.psychceu.com/miller/Miller_Hostage_Neg.pdf">play for time</a> and make the hostage taker work for every concession, extracting something in return. An example would be the release of a sick or injured hostage in return for increasing air conditioning. </p>
<p>Evaluations have highlighted the success of these negotiation strategies, with 95% of situations dealt with in this way <a href="https://www.trident.edu/wp-content/uploads/team/pub/223/crisis_negotiation.pdf">ending peacefully without fatalities</a>.</p>
<h2>Negotiating with terrorists</h2>
<p>Terrorist behaviour defies logic, as they usually do not care for their own safety or that of others. This has led some to suggest that <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2007-01-01/negotiating-terrorists">negotiating with them is pointless</a>. Others have argued the Lindt Cafe siege shows the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-25/lindt-cafe-siege-nsw-police-urged-to-get-more-aggressive/8559644">failure of “contain and negotiate” strategies</a> with terrorists, and that police should be more aggressive in future. </p>
<p>However, a rigid policy of non-negotiation and police aggression is potentially dangerous. Police tactical assaults <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&lr=&id=f0GPBAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=risk+of+casualties+in+police+raids+on+hostage+situations&ots=sI0UX4oAR0&sig=nVu17makzqLxgVY8v2CIix-Bf04#v=onepage&q=risk%20of%20casualties%20in%20police%20raids%20on%20hostage%20situations&f=false">raise the risk of casualties</a> and lose opportunities for peaceful resolution. Terrorist groups can use casualty counts for propaganda.</p>
<p>In contrast, <a href="http://garynoesner.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Foreword-for-DolnikFitzgerald.pdf">negotiation</a> has in the past secured the release of some hostages who would otherwise have been placed at risk during a tactical assault. It also allows time for detailed assessment of the situation, which helps with planning and allows time to accumulate appropriate resources for a tactical assault.</p>
<p>Attempts to negotiate with terrorists therefore appear to be <a href="http://garynoesner.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Foreword-for-DolnikFitzgerald.pdf">worthwhile</a>.</p>
<h2>Negotiation strategies</h2>
<p>Although committed to a cause, terrorist hostage takers are also <a href="http://www.apa.org/monitor/2009/11/terrorism.aspx">susceptible to many of the same</a> vulnerabilities, needs and interests as non-terrorist hostage takers. Even the most committed terrorist may experience high emotions at the start of an event while trying to achieve hostage compliance.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/14636641111134369">Many</a> have strong family connections and other competing interests such as being a parent. These may make them more hesitant, more emotional, or more likely to sympathise with hostages. Some are mentally ill and some are less committed to violence than others.</p>
<p>Therefore, as with any hostage taker, crisis intervention and rapport-based hostage negotiation approaches are useful. Other non-terrorist specific strategies can also be used. For example, during the Lindt Cafe siege, the coroner’s report states that negotiators could find few points on which to negotiate. </p>
<p>However, as in any negotiation, simple requests from hostage takers, such as for food or for the lights to be turned on, should be used as points to develop negotiation.</p>
<p>Based on <a href="http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/38/html">my research</a> and operational experience in terrorist cases, I have argued that detailed behavioural assessment of terrorist hostage takers is vital. This is because a critical determinant in the success of negotiations with terrorists is identifying and managing the likelihood of violence. This in turn informs how negotiable the situation is and when a tactical assault may be necessary (issues that were identified in the Lindt Cafe siege). </p>
<p><a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/14636641111134369">Behavioural assessment</a> is based on detailed analysis of the hostage taker’s social and cultural background, the extent of other competing priorities or identities, demands made, and characteristics of the terrorist organisation. This helps inform judgements about the hostage taker’s personality, motives and commitment to violence. </p>
<p>Real-time continuous assessment of the hostage taker’s behaviour is <a href="https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=307764916687420;res=IELHSS">also important</a>.</p>
<p>Included here are characteristics of interactions (what is said and how it is said) between hostage takers (if more than one), negotiators and hostages. This helps identify changes in emotion, group dynamics in the case of several hostage takers, and also informs judgements about the likelihood of violence. </p>
<p>Clearly not every terrorist hostage taker will be open to hostage negotiations. But everything we know from psychology tells us that some of them might be. </p>
<p>We owe it to the hostages, their families, our frontline police and other responders – as well as our broader liberal democratic ideals – to do everything we can to give it a go.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78390/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karl Roberts is a forensic psychologist and an FBI trained hostage negotiator. He gained considerable negotiation experience in the United States and the United Kingdom. He has also acted as a forensic psychologist advisor to the United Kingdom Counter Terrorism units of the Metropolitan police and Greater Manchester police. He has considerable police operational experience providing psychological advice to counter terrorism, investigations and negotiations.</span></em></p>Not every terrorist hostage taker will be open to hostage negotiations. But everything we know from psychology tells us that some of them might be.Karl Roberts, Professor and Chair of Policing and Criminal Justice, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/782552017-05-25T01:30:35Z2017-05-25T01:30:35ZLindt Cafe siege inquest highlights need for police to change their closed-off culture<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170717/original/file-20170524-5743-1w84z86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While noting the bravery of the police officers involved in the 2014 Sydney siege, a NSW coronial inquest also highlighted that mistakes were made.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New South Wales coroner, Michael Barnes, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/cqstatic/gwbyxm/siege.pdf">made 45 recommendations</a> in his report on the Lindt Cafe siege. These recommendations, released on Wednesday, mainly deal with police procedures and responses to terrorist incidents like the siege, which resulted in the deaths of two hostages and the offender in Sydney in 2014.</p>
<h2>Using hindsight can be beneficial</h2>
<p>Much of the controversy around the coronial inquest rested on the perceptions of hindsight being used to critique police responses.</p>
<p>Barnes, however, took a practical view of hindsight. He argued the type of insight and knowledge it affords can be applied to the benefit of both police and the public. He noted the undeniable bravery of the officers involved on the night of the siege, but also highlighted that <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/lindt-inquest-mistakes-cannot-be-papered-over-coroner-michael-barnes-finds-20170524-gwbyj8.html">mistakes were made</a>.</p>
<p>To some extent the police were damned if they did and damned if they didn’t. If they had entered before any hostages were killed, and this action resulted in a death, they would then be subject to the question: why didn’t they wait?</p>
<h2>Issue of police culture</h2>
<p>One important issue highlighted by the inquest was the issue of police culture. </p>
<p>Police culture is unique. It is shaped by the job police are required to undertake, and the public perceptions of their role.</p>
<p>In the 1980s, Tony Fitzgerald devoted a large part of <a href="http://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/about-the-ccc/the-fitzgerald-inquiry">his report</a> on systemic corruption in the Queensland Police Service to police culture. He noted that a police service’s culture is of vital importance to the community due to the service’s numerical strength, political influence, physical power and armed nature. </p>
<p>Thus, Fitzgerald argued, police officers collectively form a strongly bonded separate social group with a unique culture. This culture <a href="https://hbr.org/2016/08/the-organizational-reasons-police-departments-dont-change">has been described</a> as a set of informal norms unique to policing.</p>
<h2>The importance of external review</h2>
<p>Policing culture is often associated with a lack of transparency and a resistance to external examination.</p>
<p>This was exhibited in 2013, when former <a href="http://www.qfr-sou.asn.au/files/u2/police-community-safety-review_FINAL.pdf">Australian Federal Police commissioner Mick Keelty</a> reported that police in Queensland did not see themselves as public servants, and actively resisted attempts at interaction from other government departments. Keelty referred to it as the “blue iron curtain”, and raised issues about a lack of transparency and the service being risk-averse.</p>
<p>During the inquest into the Lindt Cafe siege this resistance manifested in senior NSW police officers attempting to avoid giving evidence on their actions on the day of the siege. </p>
<p>Barristers for the then-police commissioner, Andrew Scipione, and deputy commissioner and counter-terrorism chief, Catherine Burn, <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/states-top-cops-wash-hands-of-any-role-in-lindt-cafe-siege/news-story/562c42d0908bc43b3a170def946afaf4">argued that</a> neither played a substantive role in the incident. Their submission was that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>They did not give any order, direction or provide any guidance or advice in respect of the conduct of the siege on the day.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other words, there was a distinct lack of leadership in a crucial event – and a near-washing of their hands of any responsibility for what happened. </p>
<p>This effectively left the responsibility with their lower-level commanders, despite the chain of command and control being clear in a police service. Responsibility ends at the top of the chain. </p>
<p>It also sent a clear message that transparency was not a priority in NSW Police – and risk aversion was.</p>
<h2>Resistance to internal transparency</h2>
<p>A culture of resistance to transparency was highlighted in Queensland with the April 2017 release of an <a href="https://www.qao.qld.gov.au/reports-parliament/criminal-justice-system-reliability-and-integration-data">auditor-general report</a> into crime data being inaccurate and unreliable. The report said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>As a result, reported crime statistics are questionable at best and unreliable at worst, and should be treated with caution.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It was further identified that senior managers had placed perceived pressure on officers to reduce crime, which had led to the data being manipulated to meet these goals. When this was put to Queensland Police Service commissioner Ian Stewart, he <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/crime-and-justice/police-commissioner-defends-crime-statistics-urges-cops-to-take-data-queries-to-him/news-story/672db90c24a839a7b9ea01361d773d32">simply denied</a> the allegations were true.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… to imply that officers are deliberately and corruptly manipulating crime data to suit some officially sanctioned agenda is simply not correct.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He also argued that the <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-police-arent-fudging-stats-ian-stewart-20170427-gvtgh3.html">issues were not systemic</a>, despite 22% of all crime data for Queensland being identified as potentially faulty. </p>
<p>Allegations have now been made that the police officers who blew the whistle on inappropriate practices suffered <a href="http://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/crime-court/crime-and-corruption-commission-to-interview-police-about-dodgy-data-scandal/news-story/31448e7aa07292ef77f7d48d314dc571">retaliation</a>. Queensland’s anti-corruption watchdog, the Crime and Corruption Commission, is investigating any actions managers may have taken against them.</p>
<p>When a senior Queensland police officer argued the service was failing people due to a <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/queensland-police-restructure-fails-make-grade-terry-goldsworthy">failed restructure</a> under Stewart, <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/senior-police-officer-calls-for-inquiry-in-to-mismanagement-of-queensland-police-service/news-story/9f712089d6a0dee8a0f02aa73ec049a7">his response was</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… do they just want to bitch about the problem? … then maybe they should think about their careers and what might be a better option for them.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Such responses from police leadership do not encourage people to speak out about issues. Nor do they help create a model of transparency.</p>
<h2>Lessons police need to learn</h2>
<p>If the Lindt Cafe inquest has highlighted anything, it is that the culture of resistance to transparency from senior elements of police services needs to change. </p>
<p>Constructive criticism that uses evidence to identify sub-optimal performance and bring about organisational improvements is crucial to police responses. Police services must embrace the lessons from processes such as the inquest into the Lindt Cafe siege.</p>
<p>To that end, it is encouraging that the new NSW Police commissioner, Mick Fuller, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/officers-will-wear-lindt-cafe-siege-decisions-for-rest-of-their-lives-police-commissioner-20170524-gwcelm.html">has accepted the coroner’s findings</a>. He said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’m standing here again saying we’ve learned lessons … I think once people go through the recommendations, as the commissioner, I will accept the criticism and I will ensure those lives are not lost in vain.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78255/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Goldsworthy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Policing culture is often associated with a lack of transparency and a resistance to external examination.Terry Goldsworthy, Assistant Professor in Criminology, Bond UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/467462015-10-04T23:40:19Z2015-10-04T23:40:19ZParramatta shooting: how much do we really know about ‘lone-wolf’ terrorists?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/97129/original/image-20151004-23058-fhtqac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">15-year-old Farhad Khalil Mohammad Jabar killed a NSW police force employee on Friday.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the greatest perceived threats to national security is the “lone wolf” – the single attacker who is not part of a terrorist network. Dramatic acts of lone-wolf terrorism have <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34055713">become</a> <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-33179019">familiar</a>.</p>
<p>In the latest attack, 15-year-old <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/parramatta-shooting-gunman-a-15yearold-boy-police-sources-say-20151002-gk0flb.html">Farhad Khalil Mohammad Jabar</a> shot dead police employee Curtis Cheng at close range outside the New South Wales police headquarters in Parramatta last Friday. Farhad continued to fire his handgun before being shot dead by officers who responded to the shooting. Police believe he acted alone and that his actions were <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/parramatta-shooting-andrew-scipione-says-teen-shooting-linked-to-terrorism-20151003-gk0h73.html">politically motivated</a>.</p>
<p>There is still much we do not know about lone-wolf terrorism. While this is a growing field of research, to date there are only a handful of empirically based academic studies. But this much we do know.</p>
<h2>Mixing personal vendettas with political grievances</h2>
<p>Much of the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-siege-gunman-man-monis-was-a-radicialised-terrorist-us-expert-says-20150824-gj6wlm.html">inquest</a> into the Sydney siege has centred on the question of whether Man Haron Monis had a political grievance or was primarily motivated by personal issues. But this is a false dichotomy. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93485/original/image-20150901-25756-bb1hnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93485/original/image-20150901-25756-bb1hnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93485/original/image-20150901-25756-bb1hnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93485/original/image-20150901-25756-bb1hnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=918&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93485/original/image-20150901-25756-bb1hnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1154&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93485/original/image-20150901-25756-bb1hnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1154&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93485/original/image-20150901-25756-bb1hnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1154&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eric Rudolph saw himself enmeshed in a greater struggle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Tami Chappell</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lone wolves combine various political complaints with any number of highly personal vendettas in complex ways. This is a signature of lone-wolf terrorism that distinguishes loners from organised terrorists who share collective grievances. Sometimes politics is the dominant theme of the loner’s radicalisation; other times, politics is a submerged theme. The same seesaw applies to personal grievances. </p>
<p>For lone-wolf terrorists, assigning motives in clear-cut terms is therefore problematic.</p>
<p>Lone wolves see themselves as being enmeshed in greater struggles that give meaning to their actions and provide a sense of moral superiority and self-righteousness. “A soldier at war” is how Olympic Park bomber <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/abortion-clinic-bomber-gets-life/">Eric Rudolph</a> put it. The attack is the catalyst to achievement of their mission to force society to see the world from their perspective. <a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/06/abortion_doctor_shot_by_oregon.html">Shelley Shannon</a> described her attempted assassination of abortion provider George Tiller as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The most holy, most righteous thing I’ve ever done.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>At the same time, lone-wolf terrorism is often also a deeply personal quest for belonging and a clamour for attention. As British <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nail-bomber-david-copeland-solitary-5037284">nail bomber</a> David Copeland famously stated:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If no-one remembers who you were, you never existed.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Affinity with online sympathisers</h2>
<p>It is commonly assumed that lone wolves have a critical advantage in avoiding detection because they do not communicate with others regarding their intentions. As former US Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano once <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/WN/homeland-security-lone-wolves-circulating-us/story?id=10030050">noted</a>, lone-wolf terrorist attacks are “the most challenging” from a law-enforcement perspective:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… because by definition they’re not conspiring. They’re not using the phones, the computer networks … they’re not talking with others.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It appears, however, that they are doing precisely that. Interaction with the external environment plays an important role in the identity shift that lone wolves experience. While the affinity with extremist organisations among lone-wolf terrorists is declining, they are seeking ideological direction through venues other than organisations – that is, via networks of anonymous online activists. </p>
<p>The shift from an affinity with extremist groups to an affinity with unidentified online sympathisers is one of the most important transformations in the history of lone-wolf terrorism. It has expanded the base of support for the strategy of leaderless resistance wherein lone individuals operate independently of any hierarchical command.</p>
<p>Neo-Nazi <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2014/05/16/keith-luke-neo-nazi-suicide_n_5334411.html?ir=Australia">Keith Luke</a>, convicted of killing two and raping a woman, had no affinity for any extremist group. He had no friends and spent most of his time alone. He lived with his mother and had held a job for only one day of his life. But Luke did have an affinity with online sympathisers, none of whom he knew outside of cyberspace. </p>
<p>Some <a href="https://theconversation.com/radicalisation-and-the-lone-wolf-what-we-do-and-dont-know-35540">researchers</a> challenge the assumption that the internet promotes self-radicalisation without face-to-face contact with another person. They argue that the emotional appeal to personal identity and group solidarity are more significant than online activity. </p>
<p>This may generally be the case, but Luke puts the lie to that test. He developed his beliefs solely by reading internet postings on <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2009/01/23/website-read-accused-racial-killer-encouraged-lone-wolf-murders">Podblanc</a>, a neo-Nazi website.</p>
<h2>Copycats</h2>
<p>Evidence of a copycat effect was <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/248691.pdf">found</a> in one-third of lone-wolf cases. In 2009, Carlos Bledsoe <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2011/CRIME/07/25/arkansas.recruiter.shooting/">attacked</a> the Little Rock Army recruiting centre, killing one soldier and wounding another. Bledsoe became the model for Nidal Hasan’s <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/opinion/22wright.html?_r=0">copycat attack</a> on Fort Hood five months later, which killed 13 and injured 30. Hasan inspired Naser Jason Abdo’s <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/naser-jaon-abdo-ft-hood-plotter-life-prison/story?id=16978363">attempted bombing</a> at Fort Hood in 2011.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93486/original/image-20150901-25756-1lkjvke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93486/original/image-20150901-25756-1lkjvke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93486/original/image-20150901-25756-1lkjvke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93486/original/image-20150901-25756-1lkjvke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93486/original/image-20150901-25756-1lkjvke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93486/original/image-20150901-25756-1lkjvke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93486/original/image-20150901-25756-1lkjvke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nidal Hasan’s attack on the Fort Hood army base inspired, and was inspired by, similar attacks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>News coverage of Hosam Smadi’s <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2010/november/terror-plot-foiled">plot</a> to bomb a Dallas skyscraper in 2009 motivated <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/dallas/press-releases/2011/dl022411.htm">Khalid Aldawsari</a> to research the feasibility of carrying a backpack bomb into a Dallas nightclub in 2011.</p>
<p>In a copycat of government scientist Bruce Ivins’ 2001 <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2011/may/29/nation/la-na-anthrax-ivins-20110529">anthrax attacks</a>, anti-abortion extremist Clayton Waagner <a href="http://www.salon.com/2003/12/11/waagner_3/">mailed 554 letters</a> to abortion clinics across the US in 2001, each containing white flour and an anthrax threat. His letters disrupted clinic operations, temporarily shutting down hundreds of abortion clinics. </p>
<p>What distinguishes these lone-wolf copycats from traditional criminal copycats is motive. Rather than (merely) seeking fame and notoriety, the lone-wolf terrorists imitated other lone wolves to make a political point. By turning political causes into violent action, lone-wolf terrorists can become role models for others who are sympathetic to those causes.</p>
<p>This is where lone-wolf terrorists appear to differ from Vester Flanagan, who <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/manager-virginia-tv-station-workers-fatally-shot-air-33328428">shot dead</a> two journalists on live TV in Virginia. Flanagan reportedly wrote in a 23-page fax to ABC News that the Charleston church shooting in June triggered his attack and that he put down a deposit for a gun two days after the Charleston shooting. He expressed admiration for the shooters who massacred students at Columbine High School and Virginia Tech.</p>
<p>Unlike the lone wolves, though, Flanagan had no apparent political grievance.</p>
<h2>Broadcasting intent</h2>
<p>Many lone wolves broadcast their intent before they strike. The purpose is to seek renown for their cause. They use spoken statements, letters, manifestos, email messages, texting and videotaped proclamations, similar to the martyrdom videos that members of al-Qaeda and Islamic State upload to the internet.</p>
<p>Lone wolves tend to share several commonalities, but broadcasting intent may be the most important commonality from the standpoint of prevention. If lone wolves announce their violent intentions beforehand, then presumably steps can be taken to stop them.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93488/original/image-20150901-25759-aslwbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93488/original/image-20150901-25759-aslwbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93488/original/image-20150901-25759-aslwbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93488/original/image-20150901-25759-aslwbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93488/original/image-20150901-25759-aslwbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93488/original/image-20150901-25759-aslwbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93488/original/image-20150901-25759-aslwbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jared Loughner broadcasted his murderous intent before committing a mass shooting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jared Loughner’s attempted assassination of US Representative Gabrielle Giffords, which left six people dead and another 12 wounded, is a case in point. Loughner <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2011/CRIME/01/08/arizona.shootings.suspect.social/">broadcasted his intent</a> to commit terrorism with a flagrant sense of exhibitionism meant to attract attention and satisfy his narcissism. He displayed his contempt for the government and for Giffords in numerous Facebook and MySpace postings along with several YouTube videos. </p>
<p>A week before the attack, Loughner posted his penultimate message:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Dear Reader … I’m searching. Today! With every concern, my shot is now ready for aim. The hunt, a mighty thought of mine.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Broadcasting intent for lone-wolf terrorism is consistent with <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/admins/lead/safety/preventingattacksreport.pdf">research</a> on school shootings that shows more than 80% of the shooters had confided their intentions to others. More than half had told at least two people.</p>
<p>The ability of authorities to detect and prevent lone-wolf terrorism demands a clear understanding of these processes. Such insight may provide investigators with a sort of detection system, or “signatures” – as minimal as they may appear – that an individual with a terrorist intent will demonstrate in preparing for an attack.</p>
<p>Crucial to this understanding is the broadcasting of intent. Broadcasting the intent to commit terrorism is about how radicalisation is displayed, not about who is radicalised or why. Focusing on this kind of immediate objective of radicalisation among lone wolves, rather than on their underlying political grievances, may sharpen our focus on the dangers posed by lone-wolf terrorism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46746/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ramon Spaaij receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Institute of Justice (USA).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark S. Hamm receives funding from the National Institute of Justice (USA).</span></em></p>There is still much we do not know about lone-wolf terrorism. But what we do know may provide investigators with a sort of detection system to prevent attacks from taking place.Ramon Spaaij, Associate Professor, Victoria UniversityMark S. Hamm, Professor of Criminology, Indiana State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/460842015-08-17T04:01:09Z2015-08-17T04:01:09ZWhen bail causes outrage, don’t just blame the courts<p>On December 12, 2013, Man Haron Monis, having been charged with being an accessory to murder and facing multiple sexual assault charges, was granted bail. A year later, while still on bail, Monis began his <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/sydney-siege">Lindt Cafe siege</a>, with tragic consequences. </p>
<p>The Guardian <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/aug/12/police-said-prosecutor-on-man-haron-monis-bail-hearing-terrible-court-told">reported</a> last week that the head of the New South Wales homicide squad had relayed to his superior a hearsay opinion that the prosecutor in the 2013 bail hearing was “terrible and clearly not across the brief”.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-17/inquest-into-sydney-lindt-cafe-attack-resumes/6690232">resumption</a> this week of the inquest into the siege, with a focus on why Monis was on bail at the time, is likely to intensify scrutiny of this issue. It is possible that there may be a witch-hunt in pursuit of the prosecutor, who may or may not have fought hard enough to keep Monis behind bars, or even the magistrate who acceded to the submissions of counsel for Monis to be granted bail. </p>
<h2>Why we cannot afford a witch-hunt</h2>
<p>Any such witch-hunt should be resisted for three important reasons.</p>
<p>The first is that governments in these circumstances, steeled by populist fervour, often go into “risk-averse” mode and make it more likely that persons charged with serious offences remain behind bars. If that happens, prisoner numbers will rise. It is well known that when governments <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-for-punishment-we-need-to-understand-bail-not-review-it-28651">focus on isolated examples</a>, often <a href="https://www.crimejusticejournal.com/article/view/84">under pressure</a> from the media and public, <a href="https://www.crimejusticejournal.com/article/view/181">short-sighted justice policy</a> usually results. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/4512.0Media%20Release1March%20Quarter%202015?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=4512.0&issue=March%20Quarter%202015&num=&view=">Prisoner numbers</a> in Australia are already the highest they have ever been. The <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/4512.0Main%20Features1March%20Quarter%202015?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=4512.0&issue=March%20Quarter%202015&num=&view=">rate of imprisonment</a> of Australians (194 per 100,000 population) is at a <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4517.0">ten-year high</a>. A quick look at imprisonment rates in <a href="https://theconversation.com/nordic-prisons-less-crowded-less-punitive-better-staffed-12885">Scandinavia</a> and <a href="http://prisonwatchuk.com/2015/06/11/uk-prison-population-stats/">Western Europe</a> tells us that you don’t need high levels of imprisonment to keep crime at bay.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92024/original/image-20150817-5117-xh6sh7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92024/original/image-20150817-5117-xh6sh7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92024/original/image-20150817-5117-xh6sh7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92024/original/image-20150817-5117-xh6sh7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92024/original/image-20150817-5117-xh6sh7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92024/original/image-20150817-5117-xh6sh7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92024/original/image-20150817-5117-xh6sh7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92024/original/image-20150817-5117-xh6sh7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of unsentenced prisoners has continued to rise across the country.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4512.0">ABS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second reason, and one allied to the first, is that <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4512.0">more than 9000</a> adult prisoners are in custody because they have been refused bail. That represents about one-quarter of Australia’s total adult prison population. This proportion has grown from 14% two decades ago, and is on an unsustainable trajectory.</p>
<p>There are significant costs to the state (the need for more prison beds) and to remandees (for example, loss of employment and family disruption) if these trends continue.</p>
<p>The third reason is that our feelings of anger or frustration toward specific justice personnel may be entirely misplaced. There has long been a suspicion that what happens at the bail hearing is only the tip of the iceberg; the decision to remand a person in custody is not simply dependent upon a prosecutor’s preparation or a magistrate’s discretion, but rather is an outcome that emerges from a complex array of social and legal dynamics. </p>
<p>These dynamics will vary between jurisdictions and over time. How else could one explain the anomalous position in the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/4517.0%7E2014%7EMain%20Features%7ENorthern%20Territory%7E10021">Northern Territory</a>, which has a rate of remand that is consistently three to four times the rate found in the rest of Australia? And why has South Australia had the <a href="http://indaily.com.au/news/2014/12/12/states-prisons-full-third-remand/">highest remand proportion</a> of any jurisdiction in Australia for more than a decade?</p>
<p>If remand outcomes were simply a consequence of prosecutorial practice, or magistrates’ choices, then we would have to conclude that Northern Territory and South Australian magistrates were somehow different from those found in the rest of Australia, given that bail legislation is relatively uniform. That is clearly not the case. So what else is at work here?</p>
<h2>What drives the numbers remanded in custody?</h2>
<p>A <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/rpp/21-40/rpp23.html">number</a> of <a href="http://www.criminologyresearchcouncil.gov.au/reports/2005-11-remand.html">studies</a> have been <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/tandi/301-320/tandi310.html">conducted</a> over the last 15 years to uncover the true drivers of the numbers remanded in custody. The research has revealed important additional factors, over and above the accountability of bail authorities, and whether or not the prosecutor was “across the brief”.</p>
<p>One driver relates to police practices. A person does not get to a court bail hearing unless a decision has first been made to arrest them (rather than summons them) and to refuse them police bail. The manner in which this occurs around Australia varies widely, especially in the way some police in particular jurisdictions use custodial remand as a short-term incapacitation strategy.</p>
<p>A second driver is found when one considers the typical characteristics of those charged. Arrested persons are today consistently found to be affected by drugs and alcohol or to suffer mental health problems. In some jurisdictions, resources to house and care for accused persons with specific needs are far more available. The likelihood of bail is therefore greater. </p>
<p>Any justice system that can draw on a wide range of community resources – such as access to affordable housing, mental health services and drug rehabilitation – will enjoy lower remand-in-custody rates.</p>
<p>Thus the key to understanding remand-in-custody fluctuations is more likely to be discovered outside the courtroom than inside. The decisions made by the non-judicial participants in the process, especially police decision-makers and the information that they choose to provide to the courts, and parliamentarians, who may or may not choose to spend on resources for accused persons, are as crucial to the outcome as any decision made by a magistrate.</p>
<p>What this means is that we need to be a little more forgiving regarding the attentiveness (or otherwise) of the public prosecutor and the decision of the magistrate to grant Monis bail in December 2013. Along the way we need to remind ourselves that we owe it to all accused persons, who are entitled to the presumption of innocence, to protect them from becoming scapegoats in a political exercise driven by risk-aversion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46084/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Sarre's research into remand in custody (with Sue King and David Bamford) was conducted with two grants from the Criminology Research Council (administered by the Australian Institute of Criminology).</span></em></p>The spotlight is on a 2013 decision to grant bail to Man Haron Monis, the man responsible for the Lindt Cafe siege a year later. It must be hoped risk-averse politicians can avoid knee-jerk responses.Rick Sarre, Professor of Law, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/387692015-03-17T03:38:53Z2015-03-17T03:38:53ZJake Bilardi’s story shows why terrorist intervention must be tailored<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74919/original/image-20150316-9181-6zo2jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C940%2C645&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The story of Jake Bilardi (centre) has distorted the characterisation of what most people think of as a radicalised individual.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Twitter</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past year, Australia – like many other countries around the world – has been confronted with a range of supposedly radicalised individuals. These individuals have either left for or returned from Syria and Iraq to fight with terrorist groups like Islamic State (IS), been disrupted by authorities while planning terrorist acts at home, or come to the attention of authorities because of their support for IS.</p>
<p>In all cases, the media has scrambled to profile the individual/s involved and held them up as the typical violent extremist offender that we all should be aware of. There will be many more to come, and we must realise that no two cases will be entirely the same. They will come from all areas of society.</p>
<h2>The Bilardi case</h2>
<p>Australians were confronted last week by another so-called violent extremist, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-13/jake-bilardi-what-we-know-australian-teenager-islamic-state/6314260">Jake Bilardi</a>. The story of Bilardi, who reportedly died in Iraq on a suicide mission, has once again distorted the characterisation of what most people think of as a radicalised individual wanting to join groups like IS.</p>
<p>Bilardi was an 18-year-old student from Melbourne who clearly had commonalities with other extremists. Like Sydney siege perpetrator <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/sydney-siege-ends-who-was-gunman-man-haron-monis-20141215-127w5p">Man Haron Monis</a>, Bilardi was a loner and struggling to make sense of all aspects of his life. He was supposedly bullied at school and vulnerable following the loss of his mother to cancer and a lack of attachment to his father. In a sense, he more easily fitted the profile of a <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/13/asia/australia-isis-bilardi-blog/">school shooter</a> than an Islamic terrorist – but there are differences between the two profiles.</p>
<p>Although Bilardi was not <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-12/australian-believed-involved-in-islamic-state-suicide-bombing/6305304">brainwashed</a> or delusional as some have claimed him to be, he was different in that he was a bright kid from a non-Muslim family and not from a low socioeconomic marginalised community – where most would think a terrorist would originate.</p>
<p>Bilardi’s intellect shone through in how he clearly articulated his path to radicalisation in a <a href="http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:HIgrSseZuYsJ:https://fromtheeyesofamuhajir.wordpress.com/2015/01/13/from-melbourne-to-ramadi-my-journey/+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au">blog</a> titled:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>From the eyes of a Mujahir: An Australian Mujahir in the land of the Khilafah</p>
</blockquote>
<p>With this blog and his carefully scripted path to martyrdom, Bilardi would finally get the recognition he so dearly sought.</p>
<p>Despite a list of red flags, it is extremely difficult to separate Bilardi from the millions of other disaffected young people who may never seek or join IS. Young people in <a href="http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/sideviews/article/criminalising-returning-foreign-fighters-isnt-the-answer-farish-noor-and-ja">transitional stages of their lives</a> – sometimes young immigrants or first- and second-generation kids; sometimes struggling students or those between jobs or unemployed – are among those joining IS.</p>
<p>Some seek new attachment because of the dysfunction within the home they left behind. In many cases, there is no traditional religious education. Therefore, it is not so much the Quran or religious teachings but the excitement or action that promises them glory, recognition or esteem in the eyes of their friends, family or community.</p>
<p>In most cases, there is a long trail of circumstances leading up to some type of trigger event when a line is crossed and an individual is ready to commit an act of violence. However, we should remember that there are a lot of young people for whom many things go wrong but they never think to commit murder or become a terrorist. How we distinguish between the two groups is the challenge ahead.</p>
<h2>Towards an individualised response</h2>
<p>Based on the cases Australia has experienced so far, it will be difficult to capture all of the possibilities surrounding the pathways to radicalisation or the reasons people want to join IS. Given this diversity, what should we learn from the vast range of violent extremist profiles and how should we address them?</p>
<p>If we are to develop long-term intervention strategies to reduce the threat of terrorism – rather than the <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbotts-national-security-changes-are-unlikely-to-make-us-safer-37709">short-term remedies</a> the Australian government has delivered so far – we will need to be equally diverse in our responses. As no two pathways to radicalisation are the same, no two intervention efforts should be the same.</p>
<p>Therefore, we will need to develop ways to reach out to vulnerable young individuals who have been exposed to negative influences and are struggling to find their way in life. Through individual case management – which could involve the expertise of social workers, psychologists or even psychiatrists – we will need to develop strategies to help disaffected people find ways other than violence to deal with their problems and frustrations.</p>
<p>Based on individual needs and interests, the aim of the intervention strategies will then be to connect the at-risk individuals with a range of services – such as mentoring and coaching, education, sport, art and employment support – or any other areas that could help them turn away from terrorism. </p>
<p>In many cases, much of the work will have to be done in close co-operation with families, schools and religious institutions to help young individuals get back on track.</p>
<p>Intervention will be no easy task or soft solution. Just finding at-risk kids will be problematic. Types of referral services will have to be established where at-risk kids can be referred without the fear of prosecution. For those who have broken the law, intervention will have to vary depending on the situation – whether it be in a correctional environment or a diversionary program.</p>
<p>But in all situations, intervention to turn people away from terrorism should be tailored to suit an individual’s characteristics. Matching treatment settings, interventions and services to an individual’s particular problems and needs will be critical to their ultimate success in returning to society as a productive, functioning person.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38769/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clarke Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There will be more Jake Bilardis to come, and Australia must realise that no two cases will be entirely the same. Radicalised individuals will come from all areas of society.Clarke Jones, Visiting Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/379642015-03-03T00:15:08Z2015-03-03T00:15:08ZMartin Place siege review makes case to tighten, not relax, gun laws<p>The joint Commonwealth-NSW review into the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/sydney-siege">Martin Place siege</a> in December has <a href="https://www.dpmc.gov.au/pmc/publication/martin-place-siege-joint-commonwealth-new-south-wales-review">released its report</a>. The sawn-off shotgun wielded by gunman <a href="https://theconversation.com/political-leaders-ask-how-gunman-was-on-the-loose-35561">Man Haron Monis</a> on that fateful day, the report authors said, was probably from the “grey” market: firearms that entered Australia legitimately but which were not handed in at the time of the <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/0708/FirearmsAustralia">1996 buyback</a> or <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/10/01/1064819963496.html?from=storyrhs">2003 follow-up</a> and were subsequently made illegal. </p>
<p>The review’s recommendations include asking <a href="http://www.crimtrac.gov.au/">CrimTrac</a>, in co-operation with all Australian law-enforcement agencies, to prioritise bringing the <a href="https://www.crimecommission.gov.au/publications/intelligence-products/crime-profile-fact-sheets/illicit-firearms">National Firearms Interface</a> into operation by the end of 2015. The Standing Council on Police and Emergency Management initiated the interface as a means of tracking illegal firearms and eliminating the markets for them in 2012. Then-home affairs minister Jason Clare adopted the proposal in May 2013.</p>
<p>The joint review also urged Australian police to continue an audit of their firearms data holdings ahead of the interface, and to seek ways of simplifying the regulation of the legal firearms market.</p>
<h2>A 25-year journey to fewer gun deaths</h2>
<p>It is useful in this context to recall the report of the <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/crime_community/crimeprevention/ncv.html">National Committee on Violence</a> 25 years ago. The federal government commissioned this inquiry as a result of two atrocities only months apart in downtown Melbourne: the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-08-09/hoddle-street-killer-wont-be-forgotten/635402">Hoddle Street massacre</a> of seven people in August 1987 and the <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/survivors-families-relive-agony-of-queen-street/2007/12/08/1196813083790.html">gunning down</a> of eight Australia Post workers only four months later in Queen Street. </p>
<p>The committee despaired that firearms data of any kind was almost non-existent. The inquiry chairman, Professor Duncan Chappell, quipped at the time that we knew more about the numbers of rabbits in this country than about the number of guns. </p>
<p>The national committee published its <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/vda/violenceDirectionsAustralia.pdf">report</a> in 1990. It made more than a dozen recommendations regarding firearms, including uniform legislation, a national gun-control strategy, a computerised firearms registry and a permanent amnesty for those surrendering unauthorised firearms.</p>
<p>The reaction from governments was lukewarm. All of that changed on April 28, 1996, in Port Arthur, Tasmania. On that day, a disturbed loner, Martin Bryant, used a high-powered semi-automatic weapon to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/archives/80days/stories/2012/01/19/3412072.htm">gun down 35</a> innocents. At the time of his legitimate purchase of this gun, there was no requirement that he be licensed to use it, or that it be registered.</p>
<p>One month later, the Australasian Police Ministers’ Council agreed upon a strategy designed to ban specific firearms. A large-scale buyback of all semi-automatic rifles and pump-action shotguns took place. By August 1998, more than 640,000 guns had been surrendered to Australian authorities.</p>
<p>That initiative was accompanied by laws tightening licensing requirements, regulating gun registration and mandating safe storage of firearms along with training requirements for all gun owners. </p>
<p>Not all guns were surrendered, however. The Australian Crime Commission <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2014/s4152610.htm?site=newcastle">estimates</a> that there may currently be as many as 250,000 illegal long-arms and 10,000 handguns in this country.</p>
<h2>US is a tragic example of lax gun control</h2>
<p>The NSW Coroner will examine the origin of the specific firearm used in the Martin Place siege in due course. A relevant question for the coroner is whether Australian legislators should hold the line and continue their strong record on gun control, or relax restrictions. The latter would move us closer to the position <a href="http://www.inquisitr.com/1602089/open-carry-ban-overturned-in-missouri/">being adopted</a> by a growing number of legislatures in the United States. </p>
<p>Some US legislators appear to believe that if guns could be placed more readily in the hands of private citizens, gun violence would be less likely because would-be assassins could be stopped in their tracks. Their citizens appear to agree. In the weeks after the Sandy Hook school massacre in December 2012, there was a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/feb/05/fbi-us-gun-control-record-number-buying">massive upsurge</a> in gun purchases. </p>
<p>This view should be rejected out of hand. The US gun homicide rate is more than ten times the Australian rate. It is also <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/jul/22/gun-homicides-ownership-world-list">significantly higher</a> than the rate in all other modern industrialised democracies. Theirs is hardly the model that we should be following.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/about_aic/research_programs/nmp/0001.html">National Homicide Monitoring Program</a> operated by the Australian Institute of Criminology reports that homicides resulting from the use of a firearm have decreased in this country since the restrictions came into place. In 1989-90, 25% of homicides were known to have involved the use of a firearm. By 2010–12, firearms were used in <a href="http://aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/mr/21-40/mr23.html">only 14%</a> of homicides.</p>
<p>In a study published a decade after the laws took effect, researchers Christine Neill and Andrew Leigh <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/1885/45285">concluded</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We find reductions in both gun homicide and gun suicide rates that are statistically significant, meaning that they are larger than would have been expected by mere chance … Our best estimates are that the gun buyback has saved between 128 and 282 lives per year.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Following a global analysis of the available evidence, Dutch academic John van Kesteren similarly <a href="http://bjc.oxfordjournals.org/content/54/1/53.abstract">concluded</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In high-gun countries, the risks of escalation to more serious and lethal violence are higher. On balance, considerably more serious crimes of violence are committed in such countries. For this reason, the strict gun-reduction policies of many governments seem to be a sensible means to advance the common good. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Australians would do well to pay heed to these words. Australia’s gun genie must stay well and truly in its bottle.</p>
<p>Quite coincidentally, in June 2014, the Australian Senate referred to the Legal and Constitutional Affairs References Committee <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/Illicit_firearms">for inquiry and report</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The ability of Australian law enforcement authorities to eliminate gun-related violence in the community. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The reporting date has been extended to March 26. We await their deliberations with great interest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Sarre does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The recommendations of the joint review into the Martin Place siege confirm Australia is on the right path with tight gun controls but needs to clamp down on illegal firearms in the community.Rick Sarre, Professor in Law, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/377092015-02-23T03:44:57Z2015-02-23T03:44:57ZAbbott’s national security changes are unlikely to make us safer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72709/original/image-20150223-21907-5rhrf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tony Abbott's proposed national security changes have the potential to exacerbate the underlying causes of violent extremism and further damage Australia’s social cohesion.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Tony Abbott deserves the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-more-benefit-of-the-doubt-as-abbott-gets-tough-on-security-20150216-13f7b2.html">benefit of the doubt</a> that his intentions to further strengthen Australia’s national security are good, well-planned, and, most importantly, fully justified.</p>
<p>Aside from drawing on national security as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbotts-stoking-of-terrorist-fears-may-be-a-political-sideshow-37641">trump card</a> when political popularity may be faltering, the government does seem genuine in wanting a safer Australia. But despite its intentions, the <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/256590320/National-Security-Statement-Canberra">changes</a> to Australia’s security arrangements announced by Abbott on Monday are unlikely to add to existing capabilities.</p>
<p>The additional measures, which include creating a national security co-ordinator, tightening immigration, cutting welfare payments, and further strengthening legislative powers, are unlikely to make Australia more secure. What they are likely to achieve is the erosion of civil liberties by paying lip service to the underlying causes of what drives people to seek out terrorist groups in the first place. </p>
<p>As such, the new measures will not only have very little impact on Australia’s security, but they also have the potential to exacerbate the underlying causes of violent extremism and further damage Australia’s social cohesion.</p>
<h2>What informed the government’s changes?</h2>
<p>Much of Abbott’s announcement is based on the findings from the Martin Place siege <a href="https://www.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/170215_Martin_Place_Siege_Review_1.pdf">inquiry</a> and a separate <a href="http://www.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/190215_CT_Review_0.pdf">review</a> of Australia’s national security architecture. It is always a healthy practice to review response procedures and arrangements after such a tragic incident like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/sydney-siege">Martin Place siege</a>. The NSW Police and Emergency Services did a commendable job and the Martin Place review doesn’t challenge this.</p>
<p>The government is also right in declaring that Australia is at a new and long-term state of heightened threat. This has emerged from acts or plots of <a href="https://theconversation.com/radicalisation-and-the-lone-wolf-what-we-do-and-dont-know-35540">lone wolf terrorism</a>, the ongoing concern regarding returning <a href="https://theconversation.com/bill-targets-foreign-fighters-before-departure-and-after-return-30095">foreign fighters</a> and the most recent threat from terrorist groups targeting <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11428309/Al-Shabaab-calls-for-attacks-on-Oxford-Street-and-Westfield-centres-in-new-terror-threat.html">Western shopping centres</a>.</p>
<p>But given this concerning security situation, Abbott’s latest announcement falls short.</p>
<p>To suggest that Man Haron Monis, the sole perpetrator of the Sydney siege, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-overplays-the-national-security-card-20150216-13g89i.html">represents</a> a typical profile of the new lone wolf terrorist threat that Australia is now facing is erroneous. The government should not be making changes to national security based on one man’s mental health issues.</p>
<p>There is no doubt that Monis was screaming out for attention. His criminal and serial pest activities spanned almost 18 years. But despite Islamic State (IS) praising him for his actions, Monis had <a href="http://time.com/3634388/man-haron-monis-sydney/">no clear affiliation</a> to any terrorist group. He also had <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydney-siege-shows-the-rise-of-a-new-form-of-extremist-35494">no religious credibility</a> among the Muslim community – he was an outcast. Nevertheless, he was someone who probably should have been taken more seriously and dealt with by authorities much earlier.</p>
<p>Monis was assessed by ASIO in early December 2014 but “fell well outside the threshold” to be deemed a high-priority counter-terrorism target. However, there may have been opportunities for intervention with Monis, particularly to deal more closely with his state of mental health and his desire for attention.</p>
<p>There is still very little information from the Monis case that tells us the reasons for his decision to commit an act of terrorism. While Monis is different from other offenders accused of planning <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/two-men-face-court-after-counterterrorism-raid-20150211-13bc0a.html">more recent</a> lone wolf acts, there is still much to be done to try to intervene and deal with individuals who are recognised as vulnerable to radicalisation or who are well down the path of violent extremism.</p>
<p>One very positive aspect of Abbott’s announcement is that the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tough-measures-on-counterterrorism-go-hand-in-hand-with-grassroots-strategy-20150219-13i14d.html">attorney-general’s department</a> is planning to develop so-called “softer” initiatives to counter violent extremism (CVE). These initiatives are likely to involve non-government agencies traditionally outside sensitive national security arrangements.</p>
<p>The government will need to expedite work in this area so it can adequately support communities and frontline service providers to both recognise signs that someone may be radicalising and to adopt strategies to intervene and manage their cases. As part of the broader CVE program, Attorney-General <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/attorneygeneral-george-brandis-flags-17-million-plan-to-counter-islamic-state-online-20150220-13k3mw.html">George Brandis</a> announced that the government will also create a body to monitor social media and take down terrorist propaganda.</p>
<h2>The implications of Abbott’s proposals</h2>
<p>While the new initiatives to counter violent extremism are commendable and will hopefully lead to a reduction in terrorism, the overall problem is made more complex by the direction the government seems to be heading on counter-terrorism more broadly. Australia’s increasing hardline on national security is counter-productive.</p>
<p>For instance, in earlier statements, Abbott didn’t see much value in intervention. Referring to foreign fighters, he <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/2014-09-22/statement-parliament-national-security">said</a> last September that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Unfortunately, terrorists don’t reform just because they’ve returned home, as the experience with Australians returning from fighting with the Taliban shows.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Abbott’s message “to all Australians who fight with terrorist groups is that you will be arrested, prosecuted and jailed for a very long time”.</p>
<p>Further, Abbott’s proposal on Monday to strip suspected IS supporters of their citizenship or dual citizenship may be problematic in the long run. The threat of de-naturalisation from Australia and the risk of becoming stateless may reinforce IS’s notion of being a religious state outside official international acknowledgement.</p>
<p>Telling people they are no longer Australian also confirms their feeling of disenfranchisement and rejection of so-called Australian values. Such actions do not play well with individuals already disillusioned with Australian society.</p>
<p>The government is also <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/02/18/hizb-ut-tahrir-pre-empts-crackdown-ahead-pm-national-security-statement">verging towards</a> “the explicit removal of the presumption of innocence” – in the words of controversial group <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/10/10/comment-why-australia-shouldnt-ban-islamic-group-hizb-ut-tahrir">Hizb ut-Tahrir</a> – by criminalising peaceful political activism in cracking down on Islamic movements. Australia’s grand mufti, Ibrahim Abu Mohammed, had previously criticised the government’s moves in this area. He said it would be a “political mistake” to ban Hizb ut-Tahrir.</p>
<p>To be effective, there are also underlying socioeconomic issues that will also need to be addressed in parallel with any national security and counter violent extremism strategy. Australia is currently at its <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/youth-unemployment-hits-a-new-high-as-people-locked-out-of-workforce-20150220-13jiax.html">highest youth unemployment rate</a> since 1998. Many who migrate to Australia struggle to gain acceptance, find employment or other critical opportunities for day-to-day survival. The end result is that the international forces driving terrorist ideology are having a greater appeal than living in, or valuing, Australian society.</p>
<p>Australia’s response to terrorism must not be rooted in short-term political gains, but in a larger strategy that takes into account the problems leading to social disaffection and addresses them simultaneously with the tougher national security posture. Our response to terrorism must be measured, focused, practical and compassionate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clarke Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s response to terrorism must not be rooted in short-term political gains, but in a larger strategy that takes into account the problems leading to social disaffection.Clarke Jones, Visiting Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/378842015-02-22T13:00:18Z2015-02-22T13:00:18ZSecurity strategy includes counter-terrorism czar and citizenship crackdown<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72688/original/image-20150222-21899-1e5v7cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Tony Abbott will deliver a national security statement on Monday.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The government on Monday will announce a new national counter-terrorism offensive to better meet threats, counter violent extremism and build community cohesion, as Tony Abbott shifts focus from individual rights to community protection.</p>
<p>The prime minister will foreshadow the appointment of a “counter-terrorism co-ordinator to bring the same drive, focus and results to our counter-terrorism efforts that worked so well to stop the boats”.</p>
<p>The present public alert system for terrorism warnings will be replaced with a simpler one, and in the budget the government will look at long-term funding issues for the counter-terrorism effort.</p>
<p>Abbott’s national security statement will also include already flagged moves to strip dual citizens associated with terrorism of their Australian citizenship, suspend the citizenship of those who have only Australian nationality, tighten visa and citizenship processes, and act against organisations such as the radical Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir.</p>
<p>The counter-terrorism strategy will be developed in co-operation with the states, and discussed at the Council of Australian Governments later this year. It will aim to more effectively co-ordinate efforts to deal with threats including from home grown lone actors and radicalisation in the community.</p>
<p>Abbott’s statement responds to both the report on the December Martin Place siege, released on Sunday, and the review of counter-terrorism machinery, set up last year.</p>
<p>The review concluded Australia has entered a long-term era of heightened threat from terrorism, with a much more significant home grown element.</p>
<p>In comments ahead of his statement, Abbott said the review had found the terrorist threat rising. It was worsening on all measures – the numbers of foreign fighters, known sympathisers, and extremists were all increasing.</p>
<p>“The number of potential terrorists, including many who live in our midst, is rising as well,” Abbott said. At least 90 Australians were fighting with and supporting terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria; more than 30 foreign fighters had returned to Australia, and at least 140 people in Australia were actively supporting extremist groups.</p>
<p>“Thousands of young and vulnerable people in the community are susceptible to radicalisation. Terrorists are becoming more adept at evading surveillance.”</p>
<p>The review also found it was becoming harder to combat terrorism. “Extremists’ slick online messages are grooming the socially isolated. Low tech terrorism, needing little more than a camera-phone, social media account and a knife, means that it is becoming harder for policy and security agencies to anticipate and disrupt attacks,” Abbott said.</p>
<p>The number of serious investigations continued to rise, with ASIO currently examining several thousand leads and persons of concern. About 400 were high priority cases, more than double the number a year ago.</p>
<p>The review supported the lifting of the national terrorist threat level on September 12 to high. This means an attack is considered likely. It is the second top level.</p>
<p>“Since then, we have witnessed the frenzied attack on two police officers in Melbourne and the horror of the Martin Place siege. Twenty people have been arrested and charged as a result of six counter terrorism operations conducted around Australia. That’s one-third of all terrorism-related arrests since 2001 – all within the space of six months,” Abbott said.</p>
<p>Abbott said the government would implement the review’s recommendations to strengthen the co-ordination of agencies, introduce initiatives to counter violent extremism manage the return of foreign fighters, and improve community understanding of the threat level.</p>
<p>In response to its recommendation for a clearer public alert system, Abbott said a replacement would be developed to provide more helpful information about what the threat is and what precautions might be taken.</p>
<p>In general, the review confirmed that Australia had strong and well co-ordinated counter terrorism arrangements and saw no reason for major structural changes.
Abbott said the planned steps would significantly improve the nation’s counter terrorism efforts.</p>
<p>“We cannot promise that there will be no more attacks. In the current threat environment, our agencies assess that a terrorist attack remains likely. However this government will do everything it reasonably can to make Australians safe from terrorism.”</p>
<p>Releasing the report on the Sydney siege earlier, Abbott told a news conference there was an ongoing debate between individual rights and protection of the community. “My judgement is that – while having always to respect both – the question of precisely where we draw the line in an era of terrorism will have to be reconsidered and the line may have to be redrawn.”</p>
<p>Abbott said the report had found all the decisions made about gunman Man Haron Monis were reasonable enough at the time “but plainly, in their totality, the system has let us down.</p>
<p>"This guy shouldn’t have been in the country, he shouldn’t have been out on bail, he shouldn’t have had a gun, and he shouldn’t have been radicalised to the extent that he claimed to be conducting an Islamist death cult attack here in Australia.”</p>
<p>The report said that 18 complaints had been received in December, the month of the siege, about Monis’ Facebook page. They were assessed by ASIO and police but the posts were not considered to indicate an imminent threat.</p>
<p>The government has accepted the report’s recommendations, which will be reflected in Abbott’s speech.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37884/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government on Monday will announce a new national counter-terrorism offensive to better meet threats, counter violent extremism and build community cohesion, as Tony Abbott shifts focus from individual…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/378832015-02-22T09:53:52Z2015-02-22T09:53:52ZAbbott fires up on national security but how safe can we really be?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72687/original/image-20150222-21887-1go0jik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Tony Abbott insists that 'the system' let Australians down in the case of siege gunman Man Haron Monis. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tony Abbott insists that “the system” let Australians down by not heading off siege gunman Man Haron Monis long before he ever got near the Lindt cafe in Martin Place.</p>
<p>“This monster should not have been in our community,” the prime minister told a news conference on Sunday.</p>
<p>“He shouldn’t have been allowed into the country. He shouldn’t have been out of bail. He shouldn’t have been with a gun. And he shouldn’t have become radicalised.”</p>
<p>Yet the report Abbott released, done by the secretaries of his department and the NSW premier’s department, has found only limited faults with the system.</p>
<p>It said that overall “the judgements made by government agencies were reasonable” and “the information that should have been available to decision-makers was available”.</p>
<p>“Decisions made to grant Monis visas and Australian citizenship were made in accordance with the laws, policy and procedures of the time.”</p>
<p>Monis didn’t have a gun licence (which Abbott once asserted). Monis received government benefits at various times, but he didn’t rip off the social security system.</p>
<p>At the start, better checking by Australian officials in Iran before Monis got his original business visa to come to Australia would have revealed holes in his story – but the processing was high volume. And at the end, obviously things would have been totally different if he hadn’t been granted bail after being charged with serious offences.</p>
<p>In between, Monis was repeatedly subjected to checks by ASIO and the police. While seen as engaging in offensive and provocative behaviour, he was not regarded as a candidate to commit a terrorist act.</p>
<p>The national security hotline received 18 complaints about Monis’ Facebook page in December 2014, the month of the siege. They were assessed not to indicate a desire or intent to engage in terrorism.</p>
<p>As Abbott said: “The Martin Place murderer right up to the very end was not specifically advocating violence against Australians. He simply went out and practiced violence against Australians.”</p>
<p>The unpalatable reality is that in some cases a person’s behaviour is not predictable, whether they are a “lone wolf” who commits an act of terror, invoking ideology, or someone who suddenly goes from verbal abuse to murdering a family member.</p>
<p>Not every crime is preventable, however good the “system”.</p>
<p>Abbott himself noted from the report that while Monis was “well and truly on a lot of radar screens, he was routinely assessed as not being a threat to himself or the community. Plainly, at some stage he did become a threat.”</p>
<p>Security agencies can only keep watch, have conversations, share information, make assessments. The latter involve judgements about risk. There are a lot of wild people out there, as Abbott would know from his prime ministerial letterbox. Only a tiny minority will become dangers to the community, and identifying those is never going to be a perfect science.</p>
<p>The report has proposed various changes, all accepted by the government. It said the Department of Immigration should improve its ability to verify information from applicants for visas to travel to Australia, better assess the possible risks posed by individuals at the pre-visa, post-visa and pre-citizenship stages and propose legislative changes for revoking visas and citizenship.</p>
<p>An overhaul of bail arrangements is recommended – the NSW government has already taken some action. The report also urges that the issue of illegal firearms be further addressed; the operation of control orders and preventative detention orders be monitored “to ensure they meet evolving operational needs”; and work to combat radicalisation be stepped up (again, already underway).</p>
<p>Abbott will announce details of the initiatives in his Monday statement on national security.</p>
<p>The review says its recommendations “would maintain broadly the current balance in our existing regulatory and legislative framework”.</p>
<p>Its “decision to not propose steps beyond this is based on our view that introducing substantial further controls involves a larger choice about the sort of society we wish to live in and is properly the province of the public and our elected representatives.</p>
<p>"Any further controls would be based on judgements as to whether increases in policing, surveillance and controls and the related extra burden on the taxpayer and intrusions into Australians’ lives would make us appreciably safer,” the secretaries said.</p>
<p>Abbott, though leading a government believing in individualism, suspicious of regulation, and previously committed to loosening the legislative constraint on racially offensive speech, is signalling that he does want to go further.</p>
<p>Abbott said that “at every stage” Monis was given “the benefit of the doubt” and the cumulative effect “is that he was able to wreak havoc on our community”.</p>
<p>Highlighting the ongoing debate between the rights of the individual and the community’s protection, Abbott said: “My judgement is that – while having always to respect both – the question of precisely where we draw the line in the era of terrorism will have to be reconsidered and the line may have to be redrawn”.</p>
<p>For Abbott, national security has become a signature issue, with extensive legislation already passed, some still before the parliament, and now more measures to come, including action against the radical Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir. He has been driven by events but also has a keen eye to the politics. </p>
<p>Labor has been marching in step, preventing it becoming a partisan issue. Monday’s statement by Abbott will give an indication of precisely how far he now intends to shift the goalposts.</p>
<p><strong>POSTSCRIPT</strong> The secretaries’ review did not deal with one of its terms of reference – to look at any lessons learnt by the police about the handling of the siege. The report said the review consulted with the NSW Coroner “and agreed that it would not be appropriate at this time for this report” to do so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Tony Abbott insists that “the system” let Australians down by not heading off siege gunman Man Haron Monis long before he ever got near the Lindt cafe in Martin Place. “This monster should not have been…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370702015-02-03T06:04:32Z2015-02-03T06:04:32ZBoris’s jihadi ‘wankers’ mark a real shift in western terrorism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70812/original/image-20150202-13049-y9iewh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Security conscious. Behind Boris Johnson's analysis of terror.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/53797600@N04/7003100885/in/photolist-9Kuc3J-bEQHUH-dhVrV4-4SrygF-a6BM2e-nWxY2f-cxhJ3Q-jAAk48-aCKABR-ndEqBg-4SryiX-4SvKRS-4vZRWT-bMBsnZ-axfaid-doxyLK-eK7NcW-dMLrDv-efA2V3">BackBoris2012 Campaign Team</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week, London’s mayor Boris Johnson generated a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/30/boris-johnson-jihadists-wankers">largely negative reaction</a> when he described European jihadis as “wankers” – people who feel they are failures and that the world is against them. Now, academics often presume London’s mayor is likely to be wrong about whatever he is talking about, above all in a period leading up to an election. In this case, however, it may not be that simple. </p>
<p>Most of those arguing against Johnson point to the presence of doctors, computer scientists and the university educated among Western jihadis. And <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/14/opinion/14bergen.html?_r=0">this certainly was a significant profile</a> in the decade following the September 11 2001 attacks. Typically this cohort set out to undertake elaborate actions that involved considerable planning, co-ordination and time. More often than not these involved the educated middle-class as leaders.</p>
<p>And in the Middle East there is no doubt that the educated middle-class makes up a <a href="http://www.meforum.org/1710/jihads-new-leaders">significant part of the jihadi profile</a>, in a region where they find themselves excluded by systems of corruption and patronage. </p>
<p>In that region, and in Africa, we also need to recognise the importance of criminal groups, clans and militias <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17582909">who have repurposed themselves</a> as jihadi fighters.</p>
<h2>Terror on screen</h2>
<p>But when we look at western countries today, a significant number of researchers are arguing a shift is occurring. This is evident in killers such as <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17456541">Mohamed Merah in Toulouse in 2012</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/charlie-hebdo-attack">Charlie Hebdo killers in Paris</a> last month, the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/lee-rigby-murder-were-we-told-the-whole-truth-9893247.html">murderers of Lee Rigby in Woolwich</a> in 2013, or the person behind the <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/a/25772503/martin-place-transformed-as-city-pays-tribute/">siege in Sydney’s Martin Place</a> last December.</p>
<p>All these cases suggest the profile of people going on killing sprees in the West is changing. There is greater evidence of social marginalisation, evidence of disrupted family life and a significant relationship with low-level delinquent activity or crime. There is little or no relationship with mosques, Muslim communities or religious practice. Increasingly, today’s jihadis are not fundamentalists.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70816/original/image-20150202-25825-1uozlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70816/original/image-20150202-25825-1uozlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70816/original/image-20150202-25825-1uozlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70816/original/image-20150202-25825-1uozlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70816/original/image-20150202-25825-1uozlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70816/original/image-20150202-25825-1uozlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70816/original/image-20150202-25825-1uozlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70816/original/image-20150202-25825-1uozlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tributes for the Martin Place victims.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/smileymanwithahat/16030613446/in/photolist-qqz5T1-qrAnm3-ey3wPy-qbishJ-qsMJdm-exYZe4-ey3v7S-ey3aT9-exYXga-ey3opL-exZ2Cv-exZ8kP-ey3p7Y-exZ3yi-exZg6r-ey3vUf-exYWMK-exZkp6-exYTvV-exZnGt-ey3wkJ-exZ2it-exYU1R-ey3iMW-exZ7TX-exYUot-exZ5Gr-exZ51v-ey3yFj-ey3d9G-exYWvz-exZ6rK-eMnYHC-exZn8H-exYVAc-exZ3Yg-exYVXr-exZ9wk-ey36e9-fuAo8u-fPxGqz-75iZ4T-75T8my-nsvX6X-75T8dL-7bSsYg-75T8c5-6RSY9J-6b6kuh-qaDAei">Norman Z</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Researchers highlight the increasing importance of narcissism in this violence. The Woolwich killers sought to be filmed and interviewed while holding bloodied knives and cleavers; Mohamad Merah strapped a video camera to his chest before murdering Jewish school children and uploaded the images to al-Jazeera. The <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-siege-man-monis-forced-tori-johnson-to-kneel-before-executing-him/story-fni0cx4q-1227200433102?nk=37f4ffa6f2f9e1d066814f4a7aff79b0">self-appointed cleric behind the Sydney siege</a> last December, before executing a kneeling man, demanded a live radio conversation with the Australian prime minister, and throughout the siege forced hostages to contact media outlets on his behalf.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"337262571075796992"}"></div></p>
<p>We need to recognise that there is a shift occurring here, a break from the elaborate plots that characterised jihadism in the decade following September 11.</p>
<h2>‘Secret knowledge’</h2>
<p>The narcissism increasingly evident in this violence evokes the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/12/school-shootings-newtown-study-gun-violence">killings undertaken by school shooters</a> who periodically massacre their fellow students and teachers. Almost all these shooters post videos of themselves to YouTube, and they see themselves as anti-heroes who become individuals through their violence – and the visibility and recognition it accords them.</p>
<p>School shooters believe they are superior to others because they understand the way the world really works. They believe it’s their superior knowledge that separates them from others and explains their isolation. </p>
<p>Jihadis aren’t isolated in the same way, but they do believe they have access to superior knowledge that the government and religious leaders are hiding. They believe that there is a hidden reality that they have discovered, often framed in the breathless language of conspiracy theory, from the belief that the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-14572054">September 11 attacks were the work of the US government</a> to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31027152">conspiracy theories circulating around the Charlie Hebdo killings</a>, believed to be the work respectively of the United States or Israeli security services.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70821/original/image-20150202-15894-1fx1o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70821/original/image-20150202-15894-1fx1o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70821/original/image-20150202-15894-1fx1o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70821/original/image-20150202-15894-1fx1o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70821/original/image-20150202-15894-1fx1o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70821/original/image-20150202-15894-1fx1o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70821/original/image-20150202-15894-1fx1o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70821/original/image-20150202-15894-1fx1o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tributes for the victims of Anders Breivik.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/apgroner/5990976988/in/photolist-a8mt8c-a8pjwN-a8pjJG-dAk3kG-dAeynp-dAk3cE-dAexqg-dAeytz-dAk2wq-dAk2NQ-dAexLi-dAk2H9-dAk277">Ann Powell Groner</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today’s jihadi violence is changing, and so are its protagonists. Larger, elaborate network-based plots are giving way to killings undertaken by single individuals – or at most two or three people, often with significant dimensions of instability in their background. Jihadis appear to be becoming closer to other kinds of spree killers, whether that’s American school shooters or <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/anders-breivik-demands-better-video-games-and-threatens-hunger-strike-over-jail-hell-9130592.html">Norway’s Anders Behring Breivik</a>.</p>
<p>Boris Johnson’s eye-catching description of the new jihadis is impossible to corroborate; it is possible that the London mayor has privileged access to security service information. But we do need to recognise the increasing diverse paths to jihadism. In the Middle East, the excluded middle-class mixes with the traditional members of militias, as criminal groups repackage themselves as jihadists. In the West, themes of humiliation and vengeance are becoming more and more central to jihadist killings, as we saw last month in Paris, combined with an increasingly sect-like desire to cleanse Islam of Shia, a central motivation of many jihadists in Syria and Iraq, convinced they are fighting heretical regimes.</p>
<p>Western jihadis are more likely to encounter jihadism in a prison than in a mosque. They may not be “wankers”, as such, but their desire to become “someone” through inflicting vengeance and humiliation on their victims increasingly evokes other, familiar types of violent actors in western society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37070/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin McDonald has received research funding from the European Commission and the Australian Research Council. He is a consultant expert with the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. </span></em></p>Last week, London’s mayor Boris Johnson generated a largely negative reaction when he described European jihadis as “wankers” – people who feel they are failures and that the world is against them. Now…Kevin McDonald, Professor of Sociology and Head of the Department of Criminology and Sociology, Middlesex UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/360132015-01-12T19:28:51Z2015-01-12T19:28:51ZBonds of trust are terrorists’ target in the age of ‘leaderless jihad’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68551/original/image-20150109-23816-12rggjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A wave of small-scale assaults has shaken public confidence in governments’ capacity to protect citizens from terrorism.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Yann Korbi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/charlie-hebdo-attack">Charlie Hebdo massacre</a> and the subsequent attack on the Hyper Cache kosher market in France are merely the latest and most bloody jihadist atrocities to have traumatised the West. From <a href="https://theconversation.com/ottawa-shootings-canada-lost-its-innocence-a-long-time-ago-33387">Ottawa</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/sydney-siege">Sydney</a>, a wave of small-scale assaults has shaken public confidence in governments’ capacity to protect citizens from terrorism.</p>
<p>While the attackers’ specific targets and motives vary, <a href="https://theconversation.com/radicalisation-and-the-lone-wolf-what-we-do-and-dont-know-35540">“lone wolves”</a> and more professional terrorist cells share the common aim of destroying citizens’ trust – both in their governments and each other. </p>
<p>Far from being a by-product of their violence, this assault on trust is central to jihadist strategy. Understanding the logic behind this strategy is key to comprehending the terrorist threat, and to mitigating its threat to open multicultural societies. </p>
<h2>Trust and terror</h2>
<p>Recent jihadist attacks have targeted two types of trust relationships integral to modern society. The first is the social contract between governments and citizens, in which citizens submit to public authority in exchange for security from violence. </p>
<p>Governments’ promise to protect citizens from violence provides the ultimate warrant for their authority. But it is a promise they can only ever be imperfectly meet. No government – however determined – can possibly detect and disrupt all terrorist plots before they occur. </p>
<p>Small-scale terror attacks ferociously exploit this gap between promise and performance. Even failed assaults threaten public trust in the protection bargain between citizens and governments.</p>
<p>The second trust relationship jihadists target is that between citizens living in open multicultural societies. Since the 1970s, Australia and other Western governments have officially embraced <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-chris-bowen-isnt-afraid-of-multiculturalism-but-others-are-703">multiculturalism</a>, wagering that liberal values – especially toleration of religious difference – are fundamentally compatible with expanding cultural diversity. </p>
<p>Jihadist terrorism deliberately seeks to disprove this wager by engaging in spectacular violence aimed at corroding the popular trust needed to sustain successful multicultural societies. Jihadists terrorise to polarise. Every act of violence is intended to divide communities and ultimately destroy the fabric of popular support on which multiculturalism depends. </p>
<h2>‘Leaderless jihad’: a threat that is here to stay</h2>
<p>That a coherent strategy underpins recent jihadist attacks may affront those who dismiss them as the actions of isolated and mentally unbalanced individuals. But we ignore the strategic logic of so-called <a href="http://muse.jhu.edu/books/9780812206784">“leaderless jihad”</a> at our peril. </p>
<p>For the past decade, leading Syrian jihadist ideologue <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Setmariam_Nasar">Abu Musab al-Suri</a> has called for self-styled jihadists in Western countries to strike out at their host societies. Al-Suri argues against jihadists pursuing more 9/11-style terrorist spectaculars, finding them too costly, time-intensive and vulnerable to disruption in the planning phase. </p>
<p>Instead, al-Suri advocates destroying Western social cohesion and political resolve through numerous small-scale attacks on the homeland, perpetrated by jihadists working alone or in small groups. </p>
<p>Al-Suri’s vision of leaderless jihad has gained worldwide traction, spread via an extraordinarily adaptive online jihadist infrastructure that authorities have found impossible to dismantle. Consequently, the jihadist imperative of targeting trust through terror is now broadly understood, both by terrorist amateurs such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydney-siege-shows-the-rise-of-a-new-form-of-extremism-35494">Man Haron Monis</a>, the perpetrator of the Sydney siege, through to the apparently <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/09/world/europe/charlie-hebdo-terrorist-attack.html?_r=0">more experienced assassins</a> responsible for the Charlie Hebdo and Hyper Cache massacres. </p>
<p>For this reason, such attacks will not stop any time soon. Though they are undoubtedly evil, small-scale terrorist attacks on Western societies are strategically intelligible. Difficult to detect and disrupt in advance, they offer jihadists an extremely cost-effective means to advance their political goals. </p>
<p>These attacks also enable radicalised individuals to trade off the “brand name” of <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2015/01/11/376506057/paris-suspects-declared-allegiance-to-al-qaida-isis">more established jihadist networks</a>, while permitting these very same networks to <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/01/senior_aqap_official.php">claim credit for such attacks</a> and boost their standing in the jihadist sphere. </p>
<p>Most importantly, these attacks inflict disproportionate damage, both by weakening public trust in governments’ capacity to protect their citizens and by corroding popular faith in multiculturalism. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68553/original/image-20150109-23812-nu1b9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68553/original/image-20150109-23812-nu1b9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68553/original/image-20150109-23812-nu1b9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68553/original/image-20150109-23812-nu1b9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68553/original/image-20150109-23812-nu1b9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68553/original/image-20150109-23812-nu1b9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68553/original/image-20150109-23812-nu1b9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sydney siege perpetrator Man Haron Monis was but one example of the ‘leaderless jihad’ phenomenon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Sergio Dionisio</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Managing the challenge of ‘leaderless jihad’</h2>
<p>No government can guarantee its citizens 100% immunity from terrorist violence. But beyond usual efforts to detect and disrupt terrorist plots in advance, governments must also work to strengthen societies’ resilience when terror plots do succeed.</p>
<p>In the wake of recent attacks, Western governments have been quick to re-affirm liberal values and to correctly denounce terrorists as being entirely unrepresentative of Islam. We should not cynically dismiss these pronouncements as empty platitudes. In the face of atrocity, there is a special urgency in our leaders publicly defending values of pluralism and toleration. </p>
<p>There is also a strategic as much as moral imperative for our leaders to distinguish jihadists from the religion they seek to hijack, lest the terrorists succeed in polarising communities and destroying multiculturalism. </p>
<p>But beyond these well-rehearsed imperatives, governments must do more to educate the public about the toxic political aims that motivate jihadist terrorism if the community fallout from terrorist violence is to be contained. </p>
<p>Governments too often make sense of jihadist violence by pathologising it. They characterise terrorist outrages either as the random action of a deranged loner, or as the fanatical excess of an irrational <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-declares-war-on-the-islamic-state-death-cult-20140914-3fol3.html">“death cult”</a>. </p>
<p>Individual lone wolves are often mentally unbalanced. And jihadists’ ideological extremism cannot be denied. But the public is not well-served by being left ignorant of the cold-blooded strategic logic behind leaderless jihad. </p>
<p>Jihadists like al-Suri have spent years studying the West. They have carefully crafted the strategy of leaderless jihad to try to exploit latent xenophobia and so destroy the trust relationships that sustain open multicultural societies. </p>
<p>For this reason, it is essential not only that governments publicly defend values of pluralism and toleration, but that they also fortify public resolve and understanding to stay true to those values when they are deliberately and murderously challenged.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36013/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Phillips receives funding from the Australian Research Council in his capacity as an ARC Discovery Early Career Research Award Fellow. </span></em></p>The Charlie Hebdo massacre and the subsequent attack on the Hyper Cache kosher market in France are merely the latest and most bloody jihadist atrocities to have traumatised the West. From Ottawa to Sydney…Andrew Phillips, Associate Professor of International Relations and Strategic Studies, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/356702014-12-19T03:23:24Z2014-12-19T03:23:24ZPublic mourning: a brief history<p>The sea of flowers and messages of condolence in Sydney’s Martin Place is reminiscent of public mourning in the Victorian era. At that time, it was common for over a thousand people to attend a public figure’s funeral. </p>
<p>In 1893, for instance, there were 40,000 spectators at the funeral of explorers <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burke_and_Wills_expedition">Robert O'Hara Burke and William John Wills</a> in Melbourne. This was probably the biggest funeral ever seen in Australia.</p>
<p>The public response to the death of two Sydney siege hostages – and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillip_Hughes">death of cricketer Phillip Hughes</a> in late November – are recent examples of the return to this kind of public mourning. Such public grieving started – or restarted after being sidelined for much of the 20th century – with the death of Diana, Princess of Wales in 1997. </p>
<h2>A deeper need</h2>
<p>The common thread in this public expression of grief is the untimely, unexpected deaths of people who are often in the prime of their lives; both the famous and the unknown.</p>
<p>The spontaneous shrine in Martin Place has had counterparts around the world. The flowers left at Kensington Palace after Princess Diana’s death, and the photographs and messages outside the World Trade Centre after the 9/11 terrorist attacks come readily to mind. As does the candle-lit vigil for the victims of the Madrid train bombing in 2004. </p>
<p>These non-official responses to tragedy fill a need not always met by formal memorial services. Often such services don’t offer the opportunity for the general public to actively participate, and it is through actions, such as laying flowers, that the grief-stricken feel they have made more than a token effort. </p>
<p>More localised public grieving and commemorative practices have also been documented, most notably the <a href="http://www.qhatlas.com.au/content/roadside-memorials">roadside memorialisation for lives cut short</a>.</p>
<h2>Very public expressions</h2>
<p>Such expressions of public grief are grounded in aspects of traditional British mourning culture, which were transmitted to the Australian colonies. Mourning clothes, for instance, conveyed the degree of grief experienced by the bereaved to outside observers. They were also worn by those wishing to show solidarity in a custom known as complementary mourning.</p>
<p>In the 19th century, newspapers reported the grief expressed by the populace at large at the demise of the great and good. And countless column inches described the deaths of the notorious, the unfortunate, and those whose passing was somehow out of the ordinary. </p>
<p>The custom of sending of floral tributes to funerals didn’t start in the colonies until the 1880s but, once established, it became a visible means of displaying grief for dead people not in the immediate social circle of the sender. Newspaper scribes meticulously recorded and published lists of wreath donors. </p>
<p>This, of course, didn’t usually apply to the poor but, on occasion, the public would rally round and pay for a decent funeral for the victims of a disaster or workplace accident.</p>
<h2>The impact of history</h2>
<p>The focus of public grief was on the burial place. Visiting cemeteries to pay respects not only to loved ones but to socially significant others was considered a suitable activity for everyone, regardless of social background. </p>
<p>But the 20th century changed all this. World War I robbed many of the bereaved of a body to bury – and so a focal point for grieving. Even among families who had a grave they could visit, the distance to battlefield cemeteries prevented it for all but the very affluent. So the focus of grief and memory shifted to war memorials constructed in almost every population centre in response to the public’s desire for a place to grieve. </p>
<p>Another 20th century trend was the medicalisation and institutionalisation of dying. The care of the dying was removed from the management of the family in the home and placed into the hands of the medical profession. It became too “difficult” to die at home and the dying – young and old – were sequestered in institutions. Families no longer cared for their dead as funeral preparations were undertaken by funeral directors.</p>
<p>As death moved from the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/170396/Death_and_mourning_in_technologically_mediated_culture">private sphere to the public</a>, grief and mourning moved in the opposite direction. Overt displays of grief, which had been championed by sections of the fourth estate in the 19th century, were derided. And by the middle of the 20th century, they were seen as a form of collective weakness. </p>
<h2>New rituals for old</h2>
<p>Then, the unexpected death of the Princess of Wales, sparked an <a href="http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/798/1/WRAP_Brennan_Sociology_public_mourning.pdf">outpouring of grief not witnessed in the United Kingdom</a> for generations. </p>
<p>Even those who remembered the funeral of Sir Winston Churchill in 1965, which was at that time the largest state funeral ever held, observed that with Diana’s death, the grief was more personal. Mourners, it seemed, felt they had grown up with her and had expected her to remain a part of their lives.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67748/original/image-20141219-31034-e4na00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67748/original/image-20141219-31034-e4na00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67748/original/image-20141219-31034-e4na00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67748/original/image-20141219-31034-e4na00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67748/original/image-20141219-31034-e4na00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67748/original/image-20141219-31034-e4na00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=987&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67748/original/image-20141219-31034-e4na00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=987&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67748/original/image-20141219-31034-e4na00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=987&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Victorian etiquette manuals outlined appropriate behaviours for all social occasions - including funerals and mourning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/creativelenna/4935596875/in/photolist-8w9dZR-x2LY2-x2M2T-8xfe5x-x2MbX-56VfQi-dVXkTn-8w9dNk-8wcf6s-pvJJTa-8wcf8Q-mCkE9g-sG3QD-8NwLQ6-aaBbz-61gtok-oWD5aL-2XZMz5-7Xej13-dv4Up-4T5k5Q-7xyJ4J-mCmxER-mCnzz1-8NwM3Z-NqVGA-5FDHfZ-nXQPwU-beqaTp-77Q9Gp-8NzSmU-5AvCm2-77Q9uX-zv78-8NwZzk-3UAPka-9T7XJQ-5tmsA-C752p-pwYqay-9DLVrb-dkXp8w-6mGJuE-bB3nVp-2XVoGv-3UUQbU-q5m3xD-9ufsSN-m6LGs9-8bsb7">Lenna Young Andrews/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What really changed across the centuries was that few people under the age of 40 now ever witnessed a death firsthand despite its pervasiveness in the media, old and new. This lack of familiarity has left many uncertain about how much, or how long to grieve and mourn. </p>
<p>The Victorian era, at least, came with an instruction manual. Etiquette books described the minutiae of mourning. And in an increasingly secular society, religious rituals are being replaced by new rituals personalised to commemorate the deceased. </p>
<p>Plans are underway for a permanent memorial to replace the growing mountain of flowers in Martin Place. It will join an increasing array of memorial sites hosted on social media platforms allowing personal grief to be expressed by those unable to physically visit the site.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35670/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hilda Maclean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The sea of flowers and messages of condolence in Sydney’s Martin Place is reminiscent of public mourning in the Victorian era. At that time, it was common for over a thousand people to attend a public…Hilda Maclean, PhD Candidate, School of Social Science, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/356082014-12-19T01:08:13Z2014-12-19T01:08:13ZCould the Sydney siege have been predicted and prevented?<p>It’s the question everyone is asking – could the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/sydney-siege">Sydney siege</a> have been predicted and therefore prevented based on the past behaviour of gunman <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydney-siege-shows-the-rise-of-a-new-form-of-extremism-35494">Man Haron Monis</a>.</p>
<p>Monis’ troubled history <a href="https://theconversation.com/political-leaders-ask-how-gunman-was-on-the-loose-35561">was well known</a> to media and the police. He was on bail for being an accessory to the murder of his ex-wife, faced more than 50 sexual and indecent assault charges and had a conviction for <a href="https://theconversation.com/man-haron-moniss-poison-letters-split-the-high-court-and-laid-bare-a-flaw-in-the-system-35557">sending abusive letters</a> to families of deceased Australian soldiers.</p>
<p>The self-proclaimed Iranian cleric died Tuesday following the police break-up of the 16 hour siege in a Sydney cafe. Cafe manager Tori Johnson and barrister Katrina Dawson also died following the gun battle.</p>
<p>What happened in this case will be the subject of <a href="https://theconversation.com/joint-review-ordered-into-siege-and-hostage-takers-background-35619">much investigation</a> but Prime Minister Tony Abbott says Australians have a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-australians-right-to-ask-how-sydney-siege-gunman-man-haron-monis-was-at-large-in-the-community-20141216-128fcc.html">right to ask</a> why Monis was “entirely at large in the community”, with New South Wales Premier Mike Baird <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/how-did-sydney-siege-gunman-man-haron-monis-slip-through-the-cracks/story-fncynjr2-1227159015884">adding</a>: “We are all outraged that this guy was on the street.”</p>
<p>Similar questions are asked following other cases were crimes are committed by someone known to police with a history of bad behaviour, violence or abuse.</p>
<p>But can we predict if and when such a person is likely to commit any further crimes?</p>
<h2>Experts and predictions</h2>
<p>In many areas of life we rely upon experts to make predictions and decisions based on those predictions – which is often referred to as clinical prediction.</p>
<p>A psychiatrist might be asked to predict the chances that an offender will re-offend if released into the community. This information might be used at a parole hearing.</p>
<p>But for a very long time, there have been attempts to supplement and indeed replace this process with actuarial prediction, based purely on data and statistical analysis.</p>
<p>An example comes from the early work of US sociologist <a href="http://www.asanet.org/about/presidents/Ernest_Burgess.cfm">Ernest Watson Burgess</a> who in 1928 <a href="http://books.google.com.au/books/about/The_Workings_of_the_Indeterminate_senten.html?id=V6xCAAAAIAAJ">proposed 12 factors</a> to be used in predicting parole violations, including type of offence, parental and marital status, criminal type, social type, community factors, statement of trial judge and prosecuting attorney, previous criminal record among other factors. This was one of the first efforts to use data to predict parole violations.</p>
<h2>The trouble with experts</h2>
<p>There are good reasons for not relying solely on experts and instead relying on formal (actuarial) models that combine data to make predictions for us.</p>
<p>First, people are prone to bias in their judgements, and one of the best known and aptly illustrated biases is the <a href="http://psychology.about.com/od/hindex/g/hindsight-bias.htm">hindsight bias</a>. This is the tendency to overestimate the probability that you would have correctly predicted an event after that event has occurred.</p>
<p>This bias can lead us to become <a href="http://www.psychologicalscience.org/index.php/news/releases/i-knew-it-all-along-didnt-i-understanding-hindsight-bias.html">overconfident</a> in our ability to predict the outcome of events. It stops us from learning what the useful indicators are that we should pay attention to that might lead to accurately predicting an outcome. </p>
<p>Second, expertise is no guarantee of prediction accuracy. US psychologist <a href="https://www.psych.umn.edu/faculty/grove/112clinicalversusstatisticalprediction.pdf">Paul E Meehl</a> reviewed 20 studies that compared clinical judgements of psychiatrists and psychologists with a regression model (a statistical model that combines predictor variables to find the best combination for predicting an outcome variable).</p>
<p>There was not a single study in which the clinician outperformed the statistical model in making predictions.</p>
<p>Further <a href="http://www.sagepub.com/books/Book231783">studies</a> of psychiatrists and psychologists in a psychiatric facility trying to predict the dangerousness of 40 newly admitted male patients showed similarly poor results.</p>
<p>Clinicians had a predictive ability accounting of 12% of the data, compared with a predictive ability of 82% for a linear regression model using the same information. </p>
<h2>So can statistics predict a crime?</h2>
<p>Results like these have led to large efforts to develop and validate actuarial (statistical) methods for predicting violence.</p>
<p>One of the most comprehensive and well regarded approaches is the Classification of Violence Risk (<a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17171769">COVR</a>). This uses statistical methods to classify people into five risk groups (ranging from very low risk to very high risk).</p>
<p>This approach was developed for use in clinical populations and so may well be of little value for predicting violence in the general population. It does at least provide a set of criteria for assessment and a formal model.</p>
<p>But is it accurate? The <a href="http://www.law.virginia.edu/lawweb/faculty.nsf/FHPbI/1192158">proponents</a> of the approach state that it is, but <a href="http://bjp.rcpsych.org/content/190/49/s60.full">others</a> have pointed to a need to understand the margins of error. Further, there is a debate about the procedures used to compare the accuracy of these methods.</p>
<p>But prediction is hard, especially when there is a very low incidence of the event that we are trying to predict.</p>
<p>In 1955, Meehl and colleague Albert Rosen stated a condition under which a diagnostic test would be <a href="http://data.psych.udel.edu/abelcher/Shared%20Documents/1%20Assessment%20%2848%29/d%20Clinical%20decision-making/Meehl%201955.pdf">efficient</a> can be defined as a situation where prediction by the diagnostic test was better than prediction using only the raw base rates.</p>
<p>By raw base rates we mean the rate at which the thing we are trying to predict occurs in the population. For violent gun deaths in <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3303.02012?OpenDocument">Australia</a> this is thankfully rare; about 0.2 per 100,000 residents. The rate may be even less if we account for events involving people with mental illness.</p>
<p>At present there are no psychometric instruments that consistently pass the criterion of efficiency with a base rate as low as this.</p>
<p>Further, we need to be very careful about stereotyping the mentally ill as potentially “dangerous”. It is simply is <a href="http://www.sane.org/information/factsheets-podcasts/209-mental-illness-and-violence">not the case</a> that all people with serious mental illnesses are prone to violence.</p>
<p>There are very <a href="http://johnjay.jjay.cuny.edu/profiles/psychology.aspx?key=%5Bemail%5D=%27cwidom@jjay.cuny.edu%27">specific factors</a> that govern the complex relationship between mental illness and violence. We need to understand and prevent people from experiencing them.</p>
<h2>Predictive policing</h2>
<p>The consequences of using prediction to prevent crime are explored in the 2002 movie <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0181689/">Minority Report</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jdl6eAIx2K4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>That this approach is being <a href="http://www.predpol.com/">actively pursued</a> might become a self-fulfilling prophecy, with greater surveillance producing higher crime detection rates in certain areas which then feed into statistical models, inflating the degree of surveillance again.</p>
<p>We also have to consider the risks of false positives. Are we willing to take an approach where innocent people are incorrectly classified as being at high risk of committing a violent act? What might be the unintended consequences of this approach?</p>
<p>Care needs to be taken in ensuring that we don’t follow a path that will lead us to a false sense of security.</p>
<p>So could incidents such as the Sydney siege have been predicted? Probably not, but the need to believe that we can predict and control our world will still remain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35608/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carolyn Semmler receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>It’s the question everyone is asking – could the Sydney siege have been predicted and therefore prevented based on the past behaviour of gunman Man Haron Monis. Monis’ troubled history was well known to…Carolyn Semmler, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/356562014-12-19T00:04:27Z2014-12-19T00:04:27ZNews Corp’s siege coverage built on a ‘take-no-prisoners’ culture<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67630/original/image-20141218-31028-148bt61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are ways for the media to cover stories such as the Sydney siege without committing gross ethical violations.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote><p>AUST gets wake-call with Sydney terror. Only Daily Telegraph caught the bloody outcome at 2.00 am. Congrats.</p>— Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) <a href="https://twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/status/544587566297522176">December 15, 2014</a></blockquote>
<p>In one brutally insensitive tweet, Rupert Murdoch told the world everything it ever needed to know about the central tenet of the News Corp culture: nothing matters except the story.</p>
<p>It is a culture in which the ends justify the means.</p>
<p>It is a culture that celebrates cruel vulgarity, infamously exemplified by the headline <a href="http://www.bl.uk/onlinegallery/features/frontpage/gotcha.html">“Gotcha”</a> in the London Sun when, during the Falklands War, the British forces sank the Argentine warship the General Belgrano, with the loss of 368 lives. In <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Stick-It-Your-Punter-Newspaper/dp/0571299709">Stick It Up Your Punter!</a>, their account of life on The Sun, Peter Chippindale and Chris Horrie wrote that although even the editor, the egregious Kelvin MacKenzie, had second thoughts about the heading, Murdoch said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I rather like it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is a culture that ultimately leads to the kind of criminality exposed in the phone-hacking scandal that <a href="https://theconversation.com/deplorable-and-indefensible-the-ethics-of-the-news-of-the-world-2215">engulfed</a> the British branch of Murdoch’s empire in 2011. It is a culture that says if that’s what it takes to get the story or sell a newspaper, let’s do it.</p>
<p>In the case of the Lindt Café siege, it is a culture that permitted the publishing of the faces of hostages as they were forced at gunpoint to hold up the gunman’s black flag in the café window. There was a strong news case for showing them holding up the flag but no case for showing their faces.</p>
<p>These are images that are likely to haunt those hostages all their lives. The risk of doing harm should have been obvious. The disregarding of that risk is unjustifiable and unforgivable.</p>
<p>It is a culture that permits the publication of a door-stop photo of the father and husband of Katrina Dawson, who died at the gunman’s hands. They are leaving the hospital where Dawson died. The photo is clearly taken against the husband’s wishes: he is covering his face with his hand. The father’s face is a mask of shock. The intrusion on their grief is another unforgivable act.</p>
<p>There are ways to cover these stories without committing these gross ethical violations, and much of the other media showed how to do it. Channel Nine’s graphic live footage of the final police assault, and other television footage of hostages dashing from the scene, were vivid and immensely strong pieces of news reporting. ABC TV’s careful pixelating of faces of hostages in footage taken during the siege was another example of good ethical decision-making.</p>
<p>However, the newspapers – and not just <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/sydney-siege-hostage-marcia-mikhaels-chilling-facebook-post/story-fnqxbywy-1227157700358">News Corp’s</a> but <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/sydney-siege-over-lindt-cafe-gunman-forces-hostages-to-appear-in-videos-20141216-127wgy.html">Fairfax’s too</a> – seemed to think that material posted by the hostages on Facebook was simply public property to be exploited for media purposes.</p>
<p>This is a clear violation of a foundational privacy principle that says material supplied for one purpose shall not be used for another purpose without the provider’s consent. Many people – young people in particular – post material on Facebook for the purpose of sharing it with their friends. They do not anticipate that it will be used by the media in whatever context or for whatever purpose the media thinks fit.</p>
<p>The focus of this article has been on News Corp because the connection between its performance and Murdoch’s tweet is the principal point of argument. However, that is not to say News Corp coverage was all bad, nor that others were blameless.</p>
<p>The coverage of the Lindt Café siege is as a strong a candidate as we have seen in recent years for the Australian Press Council to conduct an investigation into the performance of the newspapers generally, and for the Australian Communications and Media Authority to use its <a href="http://www.acma.gov.au/theACMA/About/The-ACMA-story/Regulating/regulatory-guides-guidelines-limitations-on-control-acma">own-motion powers</a> to do the same in respect of radio and television.</p>
<p>The mixed quality of the media performance was illustrated by the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/sydney-siege-press-council-clouds-own-rules/story-e6frg6n6-1227160006029">responses to it</a> by the NSW Police Commissioner, Andrew Scipione, and the chair of the Australian Press Council, Professor Julian Disney. Scipione publicly thanked the media for acting responsibly in the way they covered the siege:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>For you to act the way you did, to be responsible, all I can say is “thank you”.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Disney <a href="http://www.presscouncil.org.au/media-release-16-december-2014/">issued a statement</a>, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Much of the coverage has been excellent and has not hesitated to tell painful truths when necessary. But there have been some deeply regrettable errors and exaggerations, spreading dangerous misinformation without any reasonable basis. This type of material can be a serious risk to public safety, as well as causing an unjustified level of fear and distrust across the community.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It was a general statement of assessment, and did not make specific allegations against any particular media outlet.</p>
<p>However, it provoked a response from News Corp broadsheet The Australian, which has been running a <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/08/11/smelling-an-adverse-ruling-the-australian-turns-on-press-council/?wpmp_switcher=mobile">campaign</a> to undermine Disney in his last year as chair of the Press Council.</p>
<p>In a front-page story, it accused Disney of “triggering concerns” – by whom, one wonders – about “whether his organisation has abandoned the rules of procedural fairness”.</p>
<p>The basis for this accusation was that Disney had spoken without hearing the media’s side of the story. The weakness in this argument is that Disney was not making a finding against a specific newspaper, but making a general statement about the performance of the newspapers as a whole.</p>
<p>However, the motive for the story became clear in its last paragraph. There, The Australian quoted its own editor-in-chief, Chris Mitchell, as saying Disney:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… has just dealt the Press Council out of any future complaints about the role of the media during this week’s events.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This was clearly meant as a shot across the bow of the Press Council. In the event that the Press Council does decide to hear complaints about the coverage of the siege, it is reasonable to suppose that News Corp will challenge its fitness to do so. This may not thwart any such inquiry, but it might make it more difficult to accomplish, especially if News Corp decided not to co-operate on the grounds of apprehended bias.</p>
<p>This brings us finally to another aspect of the News Corp culture: every critic is an enemy, and we take no prisoners.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35656/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>AUST gets wake-call with Sydney terror. Only Daily Telegraph caught the bloody outcome at 2.00 am. Congrats.— Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) December 15, 2014 In one brutally insensitive tweet, Rupert…Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/355742014-12-18T12:04:41Z2014-12-18T12:04:41ZHow does Uber’s surge pricing work – and how ethical is it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67502/original/image-20141217-31046-15kjo25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Uber is as good old reliable taxis - and can be only four times the price.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-144052039/stock-photo-taxis-wait-at-a-taxi-rank-symbol-photo-for-passenger-transport-and-services.html?src=8eGs_PzwB3rvXDdWwgLrKg-1-76">Lisa S/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Popular cab-hailing service Uber seems as accident-prone as ever, attracting criticism for quadrupling its rate to a minimum of $100 during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbott-says-the-business-of-government-wont-be-disrupted-by-hostage-crisis-35491">Sydney siege</a> hostage situation. Having been criticised in several countries for its unregulated operation and irresponsible business practices, now people are questioning the firm’s ethics too.</p>
<p>This rate hike is the norm under its surge pricing model, where prices increase in line with demand. In a <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2874062/Uber-forced-dramatically-lifting-prices-middle-Sydney-hostage-crisis-encourage-drivers-come-online.html">tweet</a> posted during the siege, the company initially defended itself, saying the higher fare was necessary to encourage more drivers to pick up passengers and meet the demand.</p>
<p>The social media frenzy that followed suggests the public remains unconvinced by the firm’s explanation. Uber was accused of <a href="http://time.com/3633469/uber-surge-pricing/">price-gouging</a> and “siege pricing”. There may be reason to question Uber’s intentions if we take into consideration that this is not the first time the company has faced this sort of situation: prices also <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/opinion/taming-the-digital-wild-west.html?_r=2">doubled during Hurricane Sandy</a> in 2012. </p>
<p>After criticism of hiking prices during a natural disaster, Uber announced it would cap prices during emergencies – but that policy wasn’t applied to the recent events in Sydney. </p>
<p>Within an hour of its initial message, Uber <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/12/15/uber-backtracks-after-jacking-up-prices-during-syndey-hostage-crisis/">backed down</a>, apologised to its customers, and offered refunds, discounts and free rides. But in the long run, this kind of action after the fact isn’t going to work for Uber.</p>
<h2>From surge pricing to siege pricing</h2>
<p>Uber’s surge pricing has been a bone of contention for some time. During New Year’s Eve 2012, rates in New York City went as high as <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-surge-pricing-7-to-8-times-higher-than-usual-2013-12?IR=T">eight times the standard rate</a>. Although the rates are displayed within the app before the ride is requested, which allows commuters to cancel their taxi request if they consider the price is too high, Uber’s customers still blamed the firm for price gouging.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://support.uber.com/hc/en-us/articles/201836656-What-is-surge-pricing-and-how-does-it-work-">Uber</a> the aim of this pricing strategy is to increase the number of drivers working with them, which in turn reduces rates and ensures reliability during peak times. The surge pricing approach is a version of <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1638134">dynamic pricing</a>, a strategy which allows prices to vary depending on the time, number of customers and other circumstances. </p>
<p>While the concept is not new, it has recently re-emerged due to <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/508435">advancing technology</a> and <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=2510111">share economy</a> models such as Airbnb. The idea is that, since customers pay higher prices due to high demand for Uber’s services, more drivers join Uber – resulting in lower prices and less waiting time for customers overall. This then leads to more customers, which in turn leads to reduced waiting time between fares for drivers.</p>
<p>Dynamic pricing has been used for many years in sectors such as airlines and hotels – and its importance for increasing network effects has been <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019850108001557">acknowledged</a> in the scientific literature. Up till now, use of dynamic pricing in public transportation has been controversial, with public transport dominated by fixed-price buses, subways and trains. The business model is also a new arrival in a taxi service and so different from what customers <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296309001994">consider the norm</a>. While Uber’s high peak-time prices may be seen as price gouging leading to customers losing loyalty, some <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/346244">research</a> suggests that consumer scepticism and perceptions of unfair pricing may stem from a lack of understanding of the marketplace.</p>
<h2>Time to shape up, Uber</h2>
<p>The retrospective apologies – rather than pre-emptive plans to prevent ethical issues that could be easily avoided – is a common theme with Uber. But the strategy is not sustainable. Backlash from the Sydney siege and Sandy incidents show that Uber’s pricing strategy is seen as exploitative.</p>
<p>This can make customers <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10551-012-1340-4">feel they are being treated unfairly</a>, something that can have long-term effects on their willingness to use the service. People will gather information to reach an impression of how fairly they feel they are being treated, form a judgement and act accordingly in the future. So despite Uber arguing that extremely high prices occur only rarely, the resulting fallout on its customers and would-be customers are likely to be more substantial. </p>
<p>In an increasingly competitive market, isn’t it better if innovative technology is used to encourage responsible and fair business practices? Better that than to risk going under as regulators tighten their grip and customers turn their backs on you.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chrysostomos Apostolidis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Popular cab-hailing service Uber seems as accident-prone as ever, attracting criticism for quadrupling its rate to a minimum of $100 during the Sydney siege hostage situation. Having been criticised in…Chrysostomos Apostolidis, Graduate Tutor, Newcastle Business School, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/355462014-12-17T19:47:22Z2014-12-17T19:47:22ZSocial supports build resilience and reduce distress after trauma<p>People in Sydney and the broader community are feeling shocked, anxious, and sad about the actions of a lone, unstable person that led to the tragic loss of lives in the siege early this week. But there’s light at the end of the tunnel: communities, like the people in them, are resilient and will recover naturally. </p>
<p>Distress in the community following trauma is very common. Between 30% and 50% of the population reported at least some symptoms of shock and anxiety in the days <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23954051">following the 2005 London bombing</a>, and the <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM200111153452024">terrorist attacks in the United States</a> on September 11, 2001. This is not surprising: the fact that an unpredictable violent event can occur in a regular day-to-day environment challenges our sense of safety and <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23954051">enhances perception of risk</a>.</p>
<h2>What research shows</h2>
<p>Studies completed in the aftermath of the <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23954051">London bombings</a>, the <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15262576">September 11 terrorist attacks</a>, and the <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0076618">1998 car bomb in County Omagh</a>, Ireland (which caused 29 deaths and injured 220 others), suggest distress is common but communities are largely resilient. Anxiety reduces in the days and weeks following the event in the majority of people without the need for clinical intervention.</p>
<p>This research and others, including <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2013/198/5/long-term-health-and-wellbeing-people-affected-2002-bali-bombing">a study done after the 2002 Bali bombing</a>, found the <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM200111153452024">most important predictor</a> of resilience and reduced distress following trauma is receiving social support from family and established support networks. Feeling like you’re <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0076618">a part of the community</a> is also vital. </p>
<p>Such support involves talking about feelings and emotions with trusted others, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-not-all-sydney-siege-hostages-will-need-mental-health-help-35541">not critical incident debriefing</a>. The latter is known to be <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12792122">ineffective at best</a>, and may potentially interfere with natural recovery.</p>
<p>A minority will go on to develop psychological problems, most commonly post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and substance abuse. These can become chronic or debilitating, and will require treatment. A <a href="http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/abs.html?ID=4074">meta-analysis of research</a> from New York, Oklahoma (after the 1995 bombing there), and London suggests between 12% and 16% of people will develop post-traumatic stress disorder in the year following the event. </p>
<p>Important predictors of risk in developing post-traumatic stress disorder involve proximity and type of exposure to the traumatic event, injury or loss, and previous psychological functioning. Those <a href="http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/abs.html?ID=4074">directly exposed to trauma</a> such as the first responders on the scene (police, fire-fighters, or paramedics) or <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0076618">people who witness the event</a> have higher rates of mental ill health.</p>
<p>People injured in the event or who lose close loved ones, and those <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2013/198/5/long-term-health-and-wellbeing-people-affected-2002-bali-bombing">already suffering from psychological problems</a> or <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0101491">having intense emotional reactions</a> during the event also have greater risk of developing post-traumatic stress disorder.</p>
<h2>The media’s influence</h2>
<p>The media and, more recently, social media can play a strong role in communities’ recovery process. But they’re a double-edged sword. Social media, in particular, is a powerful, immediate, and wide-ranging tool for often disparate groups in the community to communicate vital information during, and bonding together in the aftermath of, a traumatic event. </p>
<p>Information dissemination is known to <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23954051">reduce distress</a> in the community. Practical information about safe places, how to travel home, and how children are being kept safe in school are essential. Most people <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12902364">urgently want to find out</a> whether their loved ones are safe during traumatic events. </p>
<p>The twitter campaign <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/illridewithyou">#Illridewithyou</a> is an instance of a positive, adaptive use of social media as a pre-emptive response to protect vulnerable community members against discrimination. Created to support Muslims on public transport and tweeted over 120,000 times, the campaign significantly enhanced a sense of social cohesion that may well have a protective effect.</p>
<p>But media may also have potentially negative effects during traumatic events, particularly for children. Typically, during sieges such as the one in Sydney, 24-hour reporting creates media saturation with repeated images of traumatic events as they unfold. </p>
<p>Studies in the aftermath of the Oklahoma bombing <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11218559">reported</a> no association with media exposure and distress in those not directly present. But <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM200111153452024">other research studies</a> and <a href="http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/abs.html?ID=4074">meta-analyses</a> following September 11 have found a significant correlation between media exposure and distress. They found greater media monitoring was <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12530330">associated with poorer psychological adjustment</a> and higher distress.</p>
<p>But it’s important to note that the directionality of the effects of media saturation remain unclear; we don’t yet know whether watching causes distress, or whether distressed people simply watch more. Nonetheless, it’s probably best to shelter children from disturbing images related to traumatic events as they may not understand the content they’re viewing, or its context.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35546/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kim Felmingham receives funding from the NHMRC.</span></em></p>People in Sydney and the broader community are feeling shocked, anxious, and sad about the actions of a lone, unstable person that led to the tragic loss of lives in the siege early this week. But there’s…Kim Felmingham, Clinical psychologist and neuroscientist, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/356052014-12-17T00:55:40Z2014-12-17T00:55:40ZWhat to tell your children about horrific events like Sydney siege<p>Sometimes, despite our best efforts, shielding our children against the coverage of potentially terrifying events can become very difficult. This is especially the case if everyone is talking about it – family, friends, school-mates, the TV.</p>
<p>It is common for parents to struggle to explain events such as the Sydney siege to their children. What and how much parents tell their children <a href="https://www.kidsmatter.edu.au/families/about-behaviour/learning/how-children%E2%80%99s-thinking-and-learning-develop">depends on their age</a>.</p>
<h2>Children under 12</h2>
<p>Younger kids tend to be very <a href="http://csjarchive.cogsci.rpi.edu/proceedings/2006/docs/p411.pdf">concrete “black and white” thinkers</a>, they have a poor sense of perspective and (in case you haven’t noticed) are extremely egocentric. At this age it is best to keep it simple. There’s no point lying to children or trying to pretend the event hasn’t happened, but offer an explanation that is honest and simple.</p>
<p>For example:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A bad man shot two people in Sydney. Everyone is really shocked, because guns are very hard to get in Australia, and we hardly ever have bad people trying to hurt others here.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Now I realise the whole concept of baddies versus goodies is way too simplistic in reality, but this is an explanation younger kids will comfortably grasp (black and white thinking).</p>
<p>Be aware that their brain development is such that they <a href="http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/67/6/841.short">struggle with abstract concepts</a> and they might make connections between events that appear downright absurd to adults. For example:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If I don’t go to bed on time, maybe a terrorist will attack me </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Their egocentricity plays into this thinking as well. They will also struggle to put rare versus common events into perspective because of their limited abstract reasoning. There is no easy way around this for young children.</p>
<p>The best course of action is to give a simple (even simplistic) explanation to let them know what everyone is talking about, and then turn off the TV and let them get back to their Lego. Limiting exposure to overwhelming amounts of information is the best course of action for younger kids. Children who are bombarded with a 24-hour news station replaying scenes from the siege over and over may assume the threat is ever-present, immediate and likely to affect them.</p>
<h2>Children 12 and above</h2>
<p>Twelve (give or take a couple of years) is the magic number because of a sudden explosion in <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23257954">frontal lobe development</a> which results in teens having an improved ability to work with abstract concepts and put things into perspective – especially if helped by an adult.</p>
<p>A useful analogy for older children might go something like this:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Events like the Sydney siege are really, really rare in Australia, that’s why the media is so obsessed with it at the moment. It almost never happens here, so it’s important we don’t overreact. For example, every year people drown in rips off Australian beaches, but we don’t run around demanding every beach gets shut down or that we should ban people from swimming. Same goes for the Sydney siege, you wouldn’t stop going to the city or buying coffee because of such an extraordinary event. </p>
<p>There are strange and rare risks everywhere (like getting struck by lightning); and that’s why they attract so much attention, because they are so strange and rare. The media doesn’t focus as strongly on “typical” or “ordinary” risks like car accidents, falls or drownings, because they are so common.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>You might also want to point out that police are constantly operating behind the scenes to prevent these incidents in Australia, and the vast majority of the time they are successful in doing so (just like lifesavers on the beach).</p>
<p>I don’t mean for the above to sound like I’m minimising the significance of this wretched and unwanted event for Australia. But in the case of overwhelming social and mainstream media coverage, teenagers are still at risk of personalising and catastrophising the risk towards them and Australians in general, and that needs to be balanced.</p>
<p>You probably don’t need to block those above 12 years of age from the TV or the commentary, but they will likely need your help to gain perspective on some of the more complex arguments that invariably arise from these events such as discrimination, religion, and freedom versus security. So if the TV is on, be prepared to talk about it and answer some reasonably complicated questions.</p>
<p>Conversely, don’t be surprised (or upset) if your teenager just shrugs their shoulders and heads back to their X-Box. You are not raising a heartless being; they just may need more time to think about the situation in order to know how to feel about it, and they may be more inclined towards the opinions of their peers in this process.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35605/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachael Sharman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sometimes, despite our best efforts, shielding our children against the coverage of potentially terrifying events can become very difficult. This is especially the case if everyone is talking about it…Rachael Sharman, Lecturer in Psychology, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/355402014-12-17T00:38:38Z2014-12-17T00:38:38ZRadicalisation and the lone wolf: what we do and don’t know<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67402/original/image-20141216-14160-1s178ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Man Haron Monis, the hostage-taker in the Sydney siege, in 2009.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Sergio Dionisio</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The events of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/sydney-siege">Sydney siege</a> this week evolved amid a torrent of speculation and theorising about the motivations and intent of the hostage-taker <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydney-siege-shows-the-rise-of-a-new-form-of-extremism-35494">Man Haron Monis</a>. Some media reporting during the Sydney siege even sought to compare the incident to America’s 9/11 and the London bombings in 2005.</p>
<p>The fact Monis forced his hostages to raise the flag bearing the Islamic testimony of faith certainly suggested that he may have been a radicalised violent extremist acting with a political or ideological motive. </p>
<h2>The process of radicalisation</h2>
<p>Violent extremism describes a situation in which the extreme belief in a social, political or ideological cause is coupled with a belief that violence is necessary and justified as a means to further that cause. Very few extremists actually become radicalised to the operational phase where they carry out acts of violence – but those that do can perpetrate horrendous crimes in the name of their adopted cause. </p>
<p>Terrorism is a form of violent extremism. Although there is no universally agreed upon definition of terrorism, most definitions include elements of violence or the threat of violence carried out for the purpose of spreading fear (or terror) and coercing governments and societies. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67403/original/image-20141216-14147-lhu6sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67403/original/image-20141216-14147-lhu6sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67403/original/image-20141216-14147-lhu6sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=746&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67403/original/image-20141216-14147-lhu6sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=746&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67403/original/image-20141216-14147-lhu6sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=746&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67403/original/image-20141216-14147-lhu6sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67403/original/image-20141216-14147-lhu6sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67403/original/image-20141216-14147-lhu6sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anders Behring Breivik in the courtroom in Oslo, Norway, April 16 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Heiko Junge</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is still much we do not know about the exact nature of radicalisation to violent extremism. That is because there is no singular profile to explain who becomes a violent extremist and why. Most theories or models of radicalisation concur that it is a process, not necessarily linear, by which an individual progresses through a mild interest in a political, social or ideological cause to accepting the use of violence as a valid means of furthering that cause. </p>
<p>The factors that result in radicalisation are complex and varied. They include individual psychology, personal and group identity, demographics, individual circumstances and contact with radicalising settings or influences, including personal contact with recruiters or influential people. </p>
<h2>What about the internet?</h2>
<p>Research <a href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR453.html">suggests</a> that the internet plays some role in radicalisation though assumptions about the role of the internet in self radicalising individuals are overstated. Empirical <a href="http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR400/RR453/RAND_RR453.sum.pdf">evidence</a> supports the assumption that the internet creates more opportunities to become radicalised and serves as a space for individuals to find support for their ideas among like-minded individuals. </p>
<p>But there is no support for the assumption that the internet accelerates radicalisation and promotes self-radicalisation without physical contact. </p>
<p>Research has also shown that theories and assumptions about radicalisation are not supported in many cases of violent extremism. The marginalisation hypothesis that argues that radicalisation is a result of individual frustration and alienation does not explain why some who have travelled to fight alongside the so-called Islamic State come from well-adjusted family backgrounds and were well integrated in the broader community. </p>
<p>Contrary to popular belief, ideology and religion play <a href="http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au/R?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=189101">a less important role</a> in radicalisation. Current research by the <a href="http://www.curtin.edu.au/research/ccat/cover/index.cfm">Countering Online Violent Extremism Research Program</a> at Curtin University, with which I am involved, indicates that the emotional appeal to personal identity and group solidarity are far more significant factors in radicalisation. </p>
<h2>The ‘lone wolf’ theory</h2>
<p>Even with the growing body of empirical research contributing to understanding radicalisation, cases such as that of Man Haron Monis raise questions about whether individual actors, known as “lone wolves”, are terrorists, violent extremists, radicals or simply lone gun men. </p>
<p>We normally associate terrorism with large-scale or mass casualty attacks such as 9/11 and the Bali bombings in 2002 – attacks of the sort that require significant planning, resourcing and coordination – often transnational. </p>
<p>But the strategy of leaderless or single-actor terrorism dates back to the 19th century anarchists who carried out political assassinations and bombings. In the 1980s and 1990s the strategy of using single individuals to perpetrate attacks was adopted by the white supremacist movement in the United States as a way of thwarting government crackdowns on their activities. </p>
<p>In fact, the term “<a href="http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/231/html">lone wolfism</a>” was introduced by Tom Metzger, a white supremacist. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67404/original/image-20141216-14154-18yz0ip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67404/original/image-20141216-14154-18yz0ip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67404/original/image-20141216-14154-18yz0ip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67404/original/image-20141216-14154-18yz0ip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67404/original/image-20141216-14154-18yz0ip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67404/original/image-20141216-14154-18yz0ip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67404/original/image-20141216-14154-18yz0ip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/67404/original/image-20141216-14154-18yz0ip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Michael Zehaf-Bibeau at the Canadian National War Memorial on October 22, 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over the past few years lone-actor attacks have become more and more prevalent. Lone wolves are individuals who commit acts of violence in support of a group, though they may have no formal links to that group. Examples include Canadian Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, Anders Breivik in Norway and Mohammed Merah in France. </p>
<p>Each case is unique but all share the hallmarks of the lone actor. Breivik demonstrated extreme right-wing political views and wrote a 1500-page manifesto rationalising his attacks and his extremist ideology. <a href="http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/michael-zehaf-bibeau-addict-drifter-walking-contradiction/">Michael Zehaf-Bibeau</a>, who shot a Canadian soldier earlier this year, had his passport cancelled and was suspected of planning to travel to abroad as a foreign fighter. </p>
<p>French gunman <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17456541">Mohammed Merah</a>, who killed seven people in a shooting spree in France in 2012, claimed to be an associate of Al Qaeda. In each of these cases, including that of Monis, ideology or politics certainly appear to be the motivating force behind the violence, suggesting the actors were radicalised. </p>
<p>But there are also other factors to consider when distinguishing lone-wolf terrorist acts from similar attacks with no apparent motivation other than the actors own mental capacity or tendency for violence. Both Bibeau and Monis had criminal records and a history of violent behaviour. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2804099/Pictured-Recent-Muslim-convert-Michael-Zehaf-Bibeau-shot-dead-solider-opened-fire-Canadian-Parliament.html">Reports</a> on Bibeau describe his behaviour before the attack as disturbing. Monis also exhibited erratic behaviour and could possibly have had a mental illness. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/what-we-have-learned/html">Official reports</a> on Brievik indicated that he developed paranoid schizophrenia. Like Monis, Brievik exhibited high levels of narcissism and grandiose delusions. </p>
<p>What these cases tell us is that, unlike the strategic model of terrorism as a rational choice to carry out acts of violence in the name of a cause, these modern-day lone-wolf terrorists may be more like lone gunmen than terrorists.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35540/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Aly receives funding from an ARC DECRA and is affiliated with People against Violent Extremism</span></em></p>The events of the Sydney siege this week evolved amid a torrent of speculation and theorising about the motivations and intent of the hostage-taker Man Haron Monis. Some media reporting during the Sydney…Anne Aly, Research Fellow in extremism, radicalisation and online extremism , Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/355602014-12-16T23:37:28Z2014-12-16T23:37:28ZEnlisting psychology in the fight against terrorism<p>We are in the midst of a wave of soul searching trying to understand the Lindt Café siege in Sydney. In a sense we’ve been collectively holding our breaths for years wondering if Australia would ever fall victim to a terrorist act.</p>
<p>Terrorism has <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitions_of_terrorism">many definitions</a> but by and large usually refers to the use of violence and intimidation for political purposes. Its goal is to produce widespread fear and anger. The purpose is to polarise opinion and progress a political battle. It’s like throwing an accelerant on a fire: it forces the opposing parties to respond and fight.</p>
<h2>Conditioned responses</h2>
<p>There is a term in psychology called <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operant_conditioning">operant conditioning</a> – it’s so intuitive to most people it barely needs description. It describes how we learn (at least in part) according to the outcomes of our behaviours. If you’ve ever raised pets or kids you’ll be an expert. So if I’m rewarded for a behaviour I’m likely to do it again. If I’m punished I’m likely to do it less. If a dog wees in the garden instead of the carpet and you pat it or give it a treat, it will soon learn to go outside every time it needs to urinate.</p>
<p>What can operant conditioning teach us about terrorism? How can we use our knowledge of emotions and conditioning to search for ways to undermine the success of terrorism?</p>
<p>First on the agenda is the fear and anger. We need to contain the fear and address the anger.</p>
<p>Our leaders need to stand up and promote calm to give the message that we are prepared for such situations and that our response is appropriate and considered. They also need to address our natural response of anger and blame. They should not jump to conclusions about events being terrorist in nature, they should encourage people not to start the blame game prematurely. My impression from the Lindt siege was that our politicians tried to convey calm and control, but <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/martin-place-cafe-siege-overreaction-from-fear-is-a-measure-of-a-terrorists-success-20141215-127rih.html">didn’t quite achieve their goal</a>.</p>
<p>The media is in a trickier position. The less attention they give to terrorism the better. However, unlike in decades gone by, where a smallish group controlled most of the media, there are now hundreds of thousands of players – especially online. There is less ability to give a measured response. Hysteria sells, it’s a crowded media market place and competition is fierce. I think it is reasonable to expect the ABC to prioritise reason over ratings, but I think the commercial networks cannot be expected to have the same balance. </p>
<p>Despite this, I was mostly impressed with the coverage. There were constant calls for calm, constant stories trying to quell racism against Muslims, and various attempts to provide a balance between information and understanding. Most media outlets refused to air videos made by the perpetrator in the cafe. The constant news on multiple channels was unfortunate, but unavoidable.</p>
<h2>Can we separate ideology from actions?</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>Terrorism is no more about religion than rape is about love-making</p>
</blockquote>
<p>We need to somehow separate the act of terror from the cause it claims to support. Terrorism is no more about religion than rape is about love-making. It’s about power, control and violence. I’m not a religious person but my impression is that religion and spirituality aim to provide meaning and hope. By and large they promote humanity and peacefulness. I know many wars and unspeakable acts have been done in the <em>name</em> of religion, but my sense is that these acts reflect people’s desire for control and profit – religion just gets hijacked as a vessel. </p>
<p>Psychology has turned its hand to trying to understand terrorists, but it’s hard. Terrorists don’t volunteer for experiments! <a href="http://www.apa.org/monitor/2009/11/terrorism.aspx">What we know</a> is limited, and more driven by opinion than evidence. The limited evidence out there suggests terrorists are angry, disenfranchised, feel victimised, powerless and believe violence is not immoral. </p>
<p>Psychologists are also trying to understand the dynamic interplay between terrorists and government responses. For example there is some evidence that excessive responses to terrorist acts can encourage more people to join terrorist organisations.</p>
<p>Programs aiming to reduce terrorist behaviour tend to focus their efforts on addressing peoples’ fears of cultural annihilation, highlighting the common humanity between different religious groups and challenging the dream versus reality of terrorist involvement. These programs have a long way to go, but surely are a step in the right direction.</p>
<h2>Why use violence?</h2>
<p>Violence is a popular weapon for people chasing power – it’s never been the weapon of choice for people spreading ideas. Violent acts say far more about the perpetrators personalities and life experiences than they do about their beliefs. Resist the temptation to blame a belief system for the way people act.</p>
<p>Finally, amongst all the soul searching, take time to recover. Spare some thoughts for the victims, their families and those who put themselves at risk to respond. Protect your kids from over-exposure and teach them how to react with compassion and consideration. Just like our leaders, we need to try to respond without fear and anger – the antidote to terror is calm, understanding and tolerance. Regardless of your ideological background, don’t jump to conclusions. Take some time to read the views of others and then spread your ideas…. with words.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35560/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
We are in the midst of a wave of soul searching trying to understand the Lindt Café siege in Sydney. In a sense we’ve been collectively holding our breaths for years wondering if Australia would ever fall…Steve Ellen, Adjunct Associate Professor of Psychiatry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/355412014-12-16T19:48:31Z2014-12-16T19:48:31ZWhy not all Sydney siege hostages will need mental health help<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67728/original/image-20141218-31046-18q9iac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">We need to temper the desire to offer well-intentioned care to Sydney siege hostages by abiding to the guiding principle of not causing harm.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the country reels from the Sydney siege and its unhappy end, many will be wondering what can be done for the hostages stuck for hours with the gunman in the Lindt café. The answer may be surprisingly little – especially if we want people to recover to a healthy psychological state.</p>
<p>Growing social awareness of psychological trauma’s impact may lead people to conclude that providing psychological support and counselling to those exposed to life-threatening events is an essential first-line response. But we need to temper the desire to offer well-intentioned care by abiding to the guiding principle of not causing harm. </p>
<p>To understand why psychological aid is not a suitable first response for all people, we have to go back to the fundamentals of human health.</p>
<h2>Body and mind</h2>
<p>In life-threatening situations, the human body enters into a state of <a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/ben/cpsr/2007/00000003/00000003/art00005">extreme hyper-alertness and threat reaction</a> referred to as the freeze, fight, flight response. This reaction is designed to promote survival by orientating the person to sources of threat (freeze), and then preparing the body for immediate escape from danger (flight) or for taking whatever direct action is necessary to remove the threat (fight). Everyone has this reaction when faced with danger that threatens their physical or mental well being. </p>
<p>People being held hostage face the extraordinarily difficult challenge of having to contain this survival response and wait for rescue, a chance for escape, or the threat to be over in some other way. And their survival response doesn’t necessarily shut down once the siege is over. </p>
<p>Many survivors experience ongoing hyper-arousal and extreme alertness after exposure to a life threat, and this warrants treatment when it continues to a degree or for a length of time that interferes with their day-to-day functioning. </p>
<p>Along with survivors, family members and friends, who faced the possible loss of their loved ones, may also experience intrusive memories, nightmares, and flashbacks following incidents such as the one that occurred in Sydney’s Martin Place. They may feel a strong desire to avoid places associated with the trauma and other reminders. </p>
<p>In extreme situations where every decision may mean the difference between life and death, it’s also not uncommon for people to second guess themselves after the fact, and wonder if they could have behaved differently. There’s no easy answer to knowing how to behave in such situations – and indeed their aftermath – but questioning your reaction under duress can be a source of great distress. That some people go on to develop longer-term psychological problems is no more surprising than the fact that most people will resolve their response, particularly with the support of friends and family.</p>
<h2>Dangerous good intentions</h2>
<p>In the past, mental health professionals <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10258348">were of the view</a> that early intervention was critical for helping prevent early symptoms progressing into debilitating conditions, such as post-traumatic stress disorder. But three decades of <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19588408">research has demonstrated</a> that indiscriminant psychological intervention carried out in the immediate aftermath of a critical incident may well do harm. </p>
<p>Until the mid-1990s, the most common response to traumatic events was the provision of a one-session “debriefing” intervention – the most common brand of which was called Critical Incident Stress Debriefing (CISD). Growing concern about its outcome led to multiple <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9328501">studies evaluating the efficacy</a> of such an intervention. </p>
<p>Every randomised controlled trial showed only one of two results: either CISD had no effect, or led <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12241834">to worsening symptoms</a>. Our guiding principle of <em>primum non nocere</em> (first do no harm) called for mental health professionals to stop this practice.</p>
<p>One possible explanation for this counter-intuitive finding is that the symptoms of hyper-arousal and hyper-alertness that follow a critical incident tend to naturally fade for many people as time passes. This natural process of recovery and redeveloping a sense of safety may be disrupted by ill-timed psychological interventions. </p>
<p>The critical time for psychological review and support often comes not in the immediate aftermath of trauma but across the medium to long term when distressing symptoms may persist, or when they may emerge for the first time, causing increasing distress and difficulty in daily functioning. </p>
<p>In fact, there’s <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21208593">little evidence</a> to suggest the presence of symptoms in the immediate aftermath of a traumatic event will be enough to identify those who may go on to develop debilitating mental ill health. It’s long been noted that some people may even have a delayed onset to post-traumatic stress disorder with minimal symptoms present soon after the trauma-causing episode.</p>
<h2>The right time</h2>
<p>This is not to suggest that survivors of critical incidents who experience distressing symptoms shouldn’t have access to psychological services during the acute phase, if that’s what they want. What’s critical is that psychological interventions are carefully tailored to the needs of those who seek care, and that they’re not provided with a one-size-fits-all approach. </p>
<p>For some people, the best approach may be to return straight back to the normal routines of their life. For others, it will be to spend time with family and friends until they feel the time is right to return to their roles and responsibilities. Others still may find the acute distress following the events lead them to seek professional support. </p>
<p>But in nearly all cases, the first helping response to trauma is not psychological – it is practical, instrumental assistance. This may include answering questions and providing information about the incident, ensuring safety and addressing the practical difficulties survivors are facing, such as assistance reconnecting with their social supports. Providing specialist psychological intervention may actually be the last rather than first item on the list. </p>
<p>What we know is that in the months, and sometimes years, following a traumatic incident, when the attention of the world has moved on to other issues, some survivors and their family and friends may start to experience difficulties. So what the survivors of the Sydney siege need is mental health support in the longer term, when the media spotlight has moved on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35541/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zachary Steel receives funding from NHMRC & ARC for research into traumatic stress.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Devilly was involved in developing the Australian & New Zealand Guidelines for the Treatment of Acute Stress Disorder and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder.</span></em></p>As the country reels from the Sydney siege and its unhappy end, many will be wondering what can be done for the hostages stuck for hours with the gunman in the Lindt café. The answer may be surprisingly…Zachary Steel, St John of God Professorial Chair of Trauma and Mental Health, UNSW SydneyGrant Devilly, Associate Professor of Applied Psychology, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/355612014-12-16T11:27:05Z2014-12-16T11:27:05ZPolitical leaders ask how gunman was on the loose<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67338/original/image-20141216-14141-5br3m0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Man Haron Monis had a history of violence and radical behaviour. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Sergio Dionisio</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Tony Abbott was asked what he’d say to people wondering how Sydney’s siege had been allowed to happen given gunman Man Haron Monis was well known to police, the Prime Minister said cabinet’s National Security Committee had posed that very question.</p>
<p>“How can someone who has had such a long and checkered history not be on the appropriate watch lists and how can someone like that be entirely at large in the community?</p>
<p>"These are questions that we need to look at carefully and calmly and methodically, to learn the right lessons and to act upon them. That’s what we’ll be doing in the days and weeks ahead,” Abbott told a joint news conference with NSW Premier Mike Baird after briefings on Tuesday.</p>
<p>There are two issues, involving different institutions and agencies.</p>
<p>First, why was Monis out on bail when the criminal allegations against him were so serious? He was charged with being an accessory to his ex-wife’s brutal murder and with multiple counts of indecent and sexual assault.</p>
<p>Second, given his extremist political views were well-documented, why did security agencies – ASIO and the police – not use their powers to keep track of him?</p>
<p>Like Abbott, Baird was posing questions. “We are all outraged that this guy was on the street,” he said.</p>
<p>“We need to understand why he was. We also need to understand why he wasn’t picked up and we’ll be working closely with the federal authorities together with our own agencies to ensure what we can do better.”</p>
<p>Pressed on the bail, Baird said that he had already strengthened the law – although on police advice the new law was not being implemented before the end of January.</p>
<p>In the end the bail issue came down to court decisions.</p>
<p>The siege was a “lone wolf” attack, the sort ASIO fears most, in that it is hardest to detect beforehand because it doesn’t involve the “chatter” and multi-person planning that can give away elaborate operations.</p>
<p>While he invoked ISIL, Monis was not part of it, or in the mould of the young people who set out to fight with it.</p>
<p>For the national security agencies, a person like Monis presents a particular challenge in assessing whether his known radical views are likely to translate into violence.</p>
<p>If they have that fear, the agencies then have to decide how to proceed.</p>
<p>Police can seek a control order to monitor or regulate the person’s activities – which requires making a strong case of links to the threat of terrorism to get judicial approval.</p>
<p>Telephone calls can be monitored – not of great help if the lone wolf doesn’t engage in “chatter”.</p>
<p>There is the option of surveillance – but that takes very substantial resources if maintained over time, and is no absolute guarantee.</p>
<p>Abbott himself said that even if “this sick and disturbed individual” had been front and centre on watchlists and monitored around the clock, “it’s quite likely, certainly possible, that this incident could have taken place, because the level of control that would be necessary to prevent people from going about their daily life would be very, very high indeed”.</p>
<p>What to do about someone like Monis involves a complex balancing by the agencies of risks, rights, and resources. It is not a matter of powers – the authorities already have enough of those, especially with the new security legislation and more in the pipeline – but of judgement. What is the likelihood of this person turning extremist views into extremist action?</p>
<p>In retrospect, we know the answer in Monis’ case and the horrifying consequences of that answer. We can say that more should have been done to watch and investigate him. The point can also be made that a possible link should have been intuited between Monis’ alleged criminal violence and the potential for politically motivated violence. But then hindsight can always give a clearer view of how agencies should have assessed and prioritised risks and allocated resources.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
When Tony Abbott was asked what he’d say to people wondering how Sydney’s siege had been allowed to happen given gunman Man Haron Monis was well known to police, the Prime Minister said cabinet’s National…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.