tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/ted-baillieu-2582/articlesTed Baillieu – The Conversation2013-09-05T00:15:39Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/178712013-09-05T00:15:39Z2013-09-05T00:15:39ZHidden in plain sight: commission cuts and non-core promises<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30718/original/bdbpnvbf-1378338473.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C0%2C998%2C696&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tony Abbott has promised not to cut areas such as health, education and payments to the poor and disadvantaged, but a Commission of Audit report traditionally trumps such Liberal National Party promises.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There has been much, and justified, criticism, of Tony Abbott’s decision to conceal the costings of his policies until two days before the election, when the electronic media blackout will be in place. </p>
<p>There’s an obvious risk that politically unappealing cuts are being saved until the last minute. But the most frightening possibility for an Abbott government is already in plain view: the promise to appoint a Commission of Audit. This has become standard operating procedure for an incoming Liberal National Party government, and the outcome is entirely predictable. </p>
<p>Over at least a dozen such Commissions, the script has never varied. The Commission will announce a discovery that the public finances are far worse than the outgoing Labor government admitted, and will advise the government to ditch many of its election promises. </p>
<h2>Promises, promises</h2>
<p>The abandoned promises won’t include handouts to business or favoured political groups - the necessary cuts will focus on health, education and payments to the poor and disadvantaged. </p>
<p>Of course, Abbott has promised not to cut these areas. But the political tradition of the LNP is that a Commission of Audit report trumps all such promises. </p>
<p>In the lead-up to the 1996 election, John Howard was asked directly whether he would stick to his promises regardless of the Budget’s state. But, with the aid of the Commission of Audit set up by Peter Costello, Howard invented the category of ‘core’ promises, which would be kept. The public was left to infer that everything else was ‘non-core’. </p>
<p>More recently, campaigning in Queensland, Campbell Newman promised public servants they had nothing to fear from an LNP government. When he took office, he turned to Costello to perform the inevitable Commission of Audit, which varied only marginally from the 1996 version Costello himself had commissioned. </p>
<p>Newman invented his own variation on the core/non-core distinction, claiming that he had meant his promise to apply only to ‘frontline’ workers. When the sackings extended to nurses and teachers, he clarified further, saying that he meant ‘frontline services’, not the workers who were supposed to deliver them. </p>
<p>It’s possible that the politics will prove too difficult for Abbott, as happened to Ted Baillieu. By the time his Commission of Audit report was ready, with its recommendations of radical privatisations, Baillieu was already on the way out and the report was too politically toxic to be released. </p>
<p>But that’s only likely in the event of a razor-thin majority, the outcome most voters would like least. </p>
<h2>A question of scale</h2>
<p>What effect would arise from the scale of cuts that the Commission of Audit typically proposes? The cuts introduced after the 1996 election were on the scale of 1-2% of GDP, equivalent to $15-30 billion today. </p>
<p>In the context of a weakening economy, as may well be the case, public sector cuts have a ‘multiplier’ effect, reducing activity by more than the amount of the original cut. The International Monetary Fund has recently estimated the multiplier at around 1.5, so that a 1-2% cut in public spending would generate a cut of 1.5-3% in economic activity, enough to turn a slowdown into a recession.</p>
<p>In terms of employment, the standard estimate, called Okun’s Law by economists, is that each percentage point reduction in GDP increases the unemployment rate by 0.5%, and reduces employment by about the same amount. In the worst case of a 3% decline, it might imply a 1.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. </p>
<p>This is consistent with the experience in Queensland, where employment has declined, relative to trend, by more than the amount of Newman’s cuts. </p>
<p>Under normal circumstances, monetary policy could be relaxed to offset the effects of such fiscal austerity. But with the cash rate down to 2.5%, the Reserve Bank doesn’t have much room to move. The RBA would be very reluctant to cut rates to zero, at which point the only option would be the kind of quantitative easing that the US Federal Reserve implemented with only limited success.</p>
<p>Of course, it is possible that the Commission of Audit’s inevitable recommendations for massive cuts will be ignored and that an Abbott government will make no cuts beyond those to be announced on election eve. </p>
<p>As Winnie the Pooh’s gloomy companion, Eeyore, said in a similar situation: “That’s what would be so interesting. Not being quite sure till afterwards.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17871/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There has been much, and justified, criticism, of Tony Abbott’s decision to conceal the costings of his policies until two days before the election, when the electronic media blackout will be in place…John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics , The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/128462013-03-15T04:03:09Z2013-03-15T04:03:09ZWho’s the Premier? Who cares?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21298/original/p6b6th42-1363308575.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Does anyone care that Denis Napthine is Victoria's new premier?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last Thursday, Victorians awoke to the news that they had a new Premier. Ted Baillieu did not survive four days of rolling scandal which began with the release by the Herald Sun of four hours of taped conversations between key Liberal and National Party players and ended with the resignation from the Liberal Party of Geoff Shaw, Member for Frankston, leaving the government one short of an absolute majority of the lower House.</p>
<p>Most Victorians reacted to the news by shrugging their shoulders and getting on with things. There was none of the anger and panic which accompanied Kevin Rudd’s replacement by prime minister Julia Gillard. Very quickly, the news was displaced in Victoria by coverage of the trial of Jill Meagher’s alleged killer and by the election of a new Catholic Pope. </p>
<p>Victorians don’t really know why Baillieu “resigned”, but nor are they clamouring for answers. What Julia Gillard would have given for that kind of apathy in 2010.</p>
<p>Then on Wednesday this week, the Chief Minister of the Northern Territory, Terry Mills, was rolled in a good old fashioned coup. Like the leadership spills of old, this was a while coming. </p>
<p>In February the Attorney-General, John Elferink, had signalled his intention to challenge for the leadership, but in the end couldn’t muster the numbers. Weeks later, Health and Housing Minister Dave Tollner did force a spill, but ended up being forced out of Cabinet himself. Barely a week after that, Tollner and Adam Giles conspired to organise a coup while Mills was in Japan on a trade mission. </p>
<p>Mills was chief minister for barely six and a half months.</p>
<h2>Catch Labor’s disease</h2>
<p>Obviously, each leadership change had its own trajectory, and the fact that they occurred within a week of each other is largely coincidence. But there are wider implications. One is that the so-called “New South Wales disease” – a shorthand reference to the factional infighting that saw New South Wales Labor cycle through four Premiers (Bob Carr, Morris Iemma, Nathan Rees and Kristina Keneally) before finally losing office in March 2011 – is not limited to the Labor party.</p>
<p>History tells us that governing parties of both persuasions have swapped leaders quite often, especially when in power for extended periods of time, and so the identification of leadership coups with the Labor brand is a distortion. </p>
<p>The association of government leadership coups to Labor in recent times is due, in large part, to the fact that Labor has dominated the government benches in the states and territories during the past fifteen years. </p>
<p>In the decade from 2001 the party so dominated state and territory politics that, outside Western Australia, only in 2001 in South Australia and in 2010 in Victoria was Labor not in government. By definition, any changes of premier or chief minister between elections were changes of Labor premiers or chief ministers.</p>
<h2>Market-driven politics</h2>
<p>George Megalogenis makes a deeper analysis. He suggests that political leadership changes in Australia since about 1992 have been functions of two trends: the domination of political polling; and a general malaise in Australian political leadership. </p>
<p>It was in 1992 that Newspoll went fortnightly instead of monthly. Megalogenis argues that since then, politics is driven more and more by the practices of marketing than by more traditional methods of policy and persuasion. The prime example he gives was Rudd’s decision to drop his emissions trading scheme – his proposed solution to “the greatest moral challenge of our time” – after he was told of bad reactions to it in focus groups dominated by politically disengaged voters. </p>
<p>The recent trend for first-term leaders to be torn down by their party rooms is something we haven’t seen since the 1920s and 1930s in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia.</p>
<p>Related to this kind of market-driven politics is what Megalogenis identifies as the generally sub-standard level of political leadership across Australia. Unprepared politically or philosophically to pursue long-term reform in this era of poll-driven 24-hour news cycles, he argues, leaders seek election on short-term populist rhetoric and then opt out when the going gets too tough. Leaders who adhere themselves publicly to political philosophies which go beyond vague statements (like Gillard’s proclaimed belief in the importance of “education”) are, it seems, relics of the past, so when the polls go south they have no substance to ground themselves in.</p>
<h2>States in play</h2>
<p>A third important factor is at play in state and territory politics – the perception of the relevance (or otherwise) of state politics. The prime minister <a href="http://www.lgnews.com.au/the-thoughts-pm-gillard/#.UUJopTzlzB8">said in January</a> that if the Constitution were being drafted today, the states would be left out. </p>
<p>That tier of government is indeed in a curious malaise. A century of High Court decisions and the GST have centralised taxation powers in the Commonwealth government and left the states increasingly reliant on dubious means of raising their own revenue, such as taxes on gambling and cigarettes, and on tied grants from the Commonwealth. </p>
<p>State governments seem unable to cope effectively with those service areas the Constitutional drafters assigned to them, such as education and health, and too often the state governments seem little more than the facilitators of miners’ and developers’ aspirations. More and more, state and territory governments imagine their role as mere managers, and political leaders as Chief Executive Officers who sink or swim on the share price and the profit-and-loss statement. The tenure of managerialist “leaders” is necessarily short and they are rarely missed.</p>
<p>Megalogenis says he’s waiting for someone to come along and change the whole conversation, perhaps by injecting some philosophical passion into the motherhood managerialism of the current crop of political leaders. </p>
<p>But it’s unlikely that this person will come through state politics. It may be that the lack of public concern about the replacements of sitting government leaders by their parties is a sign of a better acceptance of Westminster traditions than was observed during the Rudd-Gillard swap. But perhaps the most significant message from the twin coups in Victoria and the Northern Territory is that for voters, state and territory politics matter less than ever.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Russell Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Last Thursday, Victorians awoke to the news that they had a new Premier. Ted Baillieu did not survive four days of rolling scandal which began with the release by the Herald Sun of four hours of taped…Russell Marks, Honorary Research Associate, School of Social Sciences, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/126912013-03-08T22:51:52Z2013-03-08T22:51:52ZStop press: how Ted Baillieu’s failure to manage the media helped cost him office<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21096/original/smr87v9f-1362715879.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ted Baillieu has gone from premier to backbencher within a week. Did his poor relationship with the press cost him office?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the key factors in Ted Baillieu’s losing the support of his parliamentary colleagues on Wednesday night was that he failed to manage the media effectively.</p>
<p>Did he?</p>
<p>To find the answers, it is necessary to go back before the election of November 2010, when the Baillieu Government unexpectedly won office.</p>
<p>John Brumby was Premier. It seemed that every night on television he would show up somewhere in a hard hat and high-viz jacket wielding a shovel or gazing through safety glasses at some symbol of Victorian progress. It almost got to the point of self-parody.</p>
<p>Ted Baillieu set his face against this. He was convinced that this kind of political cabaret – what Paul Keating used to call “the switch to vaudeville” – was short-changing the voting public. The voters would reward you, he believed, if you governed well and delivered on your promises. They didn’t want or need media stunts.</p>
<p>At the time, however, all this seemed unlikely to matter. The Brumby government was on the nose but few people seriously thought it was going to lose. Ted Baillieu’s crew found themselves in office under-prepared.</p>
<p>There were delays sorting out ministerial staffs, winnowing out people who were thought to be too close to Labor and replacing them with people the new Government trusted. A high-profile and respected ABC television journalist, Josephine Cafagna, was appointed the Premier’s director of communications.</p>
<p>Like all Victorian governments since John Cain’s (1982-1990), the Baillieu Government centralised its media management in the Premier’s office. But Cain had planned his from Opposition: he knew he was going to win. Baillieu did not have this advantage.</p>
<p>Yet his new media team embarked on what seemed to be a more high-principled approach to media relations than had characterised the old Brumby team: putting an end to old favouritisms, supplying information on request without putting it through the spin cycle, and answering questions factually.</p>
<p>This was all well and good, but it was also accompanied by failure to observe an ancient ritual. To use a phrase employed by the likes of Tom Playford (Premier of South Australia 1938-1965) and Joh Bjelke-Petersen (Premier of Queensland 1968-1987), Ted Baillieu failed to “feed the chooks”.</p>
<p>In other words, he did not make himself available frequently and regularly to the parliamentary press gallery. Cain, by contrast, during his first two years in office held daily meetings with the gallery – a cup of tea, an informal chat, a formal interview. He had a reformist agenda and he needed to sell it.</p>
<p>Baillieu just seemed unable to develop this kind of rapport with journalists. Although pleasant in one-on-one informal encounters, he was edgy and uncomfortable under media scrutiny. To watch him dealing with journalists on television was to watch a man walking on eggshells.</p>
<p>This uneasiness, combined with his inaccessibility, meant the media also became edgy, and among government members political pressure began to build over what they saw as a failure to get the government’s story out.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Victorian Premier John Brumby was never shy of getting his face in the press, or ‘feeding the chooks’ as it is known in political circles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Victorian State government</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some well-reported tensions developed in the Premier’s office, and in December 2011 Baillieu’s senior media adviser, Simon Troeth, left to take a position as head of communications for the Department of Justice.</p>
<p>A month later, in January 2012, Cafagna became executive director of the Premier’s Office, and was replaced as director of communications by Paul Price, another senior media adviser.</p>
<p>All this shuffling and re-shuffling and the government was not much more than a year old.</p>
<p>Then there was a change in strategy. Old favourites were restored. It is understood that members of the media unit on one occasion even attended the internal news conference of one news outlet. For other journalists, however, dealings with the media office became transactional: “You want us to help you. How can you help us?”</p>
<p>This is a recipe for disaster. It looks hard-headed and savvy but it has two certain consequences: it creates resentment among the disfavoured media, and it makes the Government hostage to the goodwill of the favoured media.</p>
<p>The media are not interested in goodwill beyond the minimum necessary to get stories. They certainly have no sense of reciprocal obligation to government. Why would they? Part of their job is to be a watchdog on government.</p>
<p>Through this change, one thing remained constant: Baillieu’s failure to “feed the chooks”.</p>
<p>The picture that emerges is of a man with decent instincts who thought it right to shun media stunts, but who for reasons of shyness or distrust or failure to appreciate the central role of media in the relationship between a government and the public, disengaged as far as he could from this side of his job.</p>
<p>The long-running tensions in his office also suggest disengagement on his part. Engaged bosses head off this kind of dysfunction early.</p>
<p>If this thesis is right, it is part of a wider pattern of disengagement that has been remarked upon in relation to Baillieu’s overall approach to the job.</p>
<p>On Monday this week, disengagement was not an option. The Herald Sun had published taped conversations implicating the Premier’s (now also resigned) chief of staff, Tony Nutt, and the Deputy Premier, Peter Ryan, in activities associated with the removal from office of Simon Overland as Chief Commissioner of Police.</p>
<p>What did Baillieu do? He stood in front of the cameras, taut and upright. No, he had not listened to the incriminating tapes, and yes he had referred the conduct of Tony Nutt to the IBAC. That was it.</p>
<p>Finito.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One of the key factors in Ted Baillieu’s losing the support of his parliamentary colleagues on Wednesday night was that he failed to manage the media effectively. Did he? To find the answers, it is necessary…Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/126822013-03-07T19:40:28Z2013-03-07T19:40:28ZLoathing democracy: knifing the Australian electorate’s wishes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21034/original/j28t3kfn-1362614653.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Has Ted Baillieu joined Kevin Rudd in the list of Australian political leaders defenestrated by their own side?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The current wars being waged in Australian electoral politics tend to be over what rights are left to Australian voters regarding their leaders. </p>
<p>The ambush of Kevin Rudd by supporters of the current Prime Minister Julia Gillard was but the most conspicuous example. Some, like Tony Abbott, have termed it the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbott-says-gillard-controlled-by-labor-party-machine/story-fn59niix-1225900017216">“faceless man”</a> syndrome, a pathology motivated by conspiratorial madness. This is meaningless in of itself (those faces are very conspicuous), but it does have a strong resonance. Elected leaders are going into retirement by the knife. A dangerous precedent is being set.</p>
<p>That was made clear with the deposing of Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu. Baillieu’s speech in the aftermath sounded like a Soviet party official who had been smeared and rewarded with a death sentence: “I love this state. I love the Liberal party”. </p>
<p>The new premier is Dennis Napthine, who is doing the usual window dressing about what happened. No, he claims, Baillieu was not <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/denis-napthine-says-ted-baillieu-was-not-knifed-as-premier-but-realised-hed-lost-party-support/story-e6frgczx-1226592188383">“knifed”</a>. “Ted Baillieu looked around and said that he felt that he didn’t have the support that he needed and he therefore made the decision of his own volition,” according to Napthine.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21044/original/fzx52d32-1362616803.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21044/original/fzx52d32-1362616803.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21044/original/fzx52d32-1362616803.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21044/original/fzx52d32-1362616803.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21044/original/fzx52d32-1362616803.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21044/original/fzx52d32-1362616803.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21044/original/fzx52d32-1362616803.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ted Baillieu exited parliament after professing love for Victoria and his time spent as its premier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Baillieu was in a spot of hideous bother after problems with his deputy Peter Ryan and the <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/i-wasnt-pushed-says-overland-of-resignation-20110616-1g4oe.html">departure of former police commissioner</a> Simon Overland. Things reached a head with the resignation of Liberal backbencher Geoff Shaw, who will sit as an independent. </p>
<p>As Peter van Onselen <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/nothing-learned-from-rudds-untimely-end/story-fn53lw5p-1226591935256">observed in The Australian</a>, “Removing a first-term incumbent leader should have been taboo after the turmoil that followed Labor’s decision to make such a move against Kevin Rudd.”</p>
<p>The Liberal Party has shown that it is not immune to what has come to be known as the New South Wales Disease, a corrupt, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammany_Hall">Tammany Hall</a> style of politics that disposes of elected leaders at the pleasure of party room politics. Even former Queensland Premier Anna Bligh, herself a Labor politician, found the appellation convincing when it came to the campaign trail. Bligh had no intentions of being cornered by party room apparatchiks schooled in the rough arts of push and shove:<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/keneally-lashes-out-at-blighs-nsw-disease-jibe-20100823-13imy.html">“I do not intend to let the NSW disease, which views leadership as a revolving door, undermine a democratic mandate in Queensland.”</a></p>
<p>That grand state has a track record on premier mortality, courtesy of the heavies of the NSW Right. First, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/lightning-strike-asbr-iemma-forced-to-go/2008/09/05/1220121483704.html">Morris Iemma fell</a> as premier in 2008. Then came <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-12-03/nathan-rees-he-gave-it-a-red-hot-go/1168238">Nathan Rees</a>, sacked in December 2009 and replaced by Kristina Keneally. </p>
<p>The same faction also precipitated that ambush most foul and famous – the fall of Rudd. Again, Bligh, putting in one for a fellow Queenslander, suggested that the disease hadn’t infected Australia’s entire body politic - “It hasn’t worked in NSW, and failed miserably federally. Queensland will not be affected by the NSW corrosion.”</p>
<p>Not only is the NSW Right disdainful of the public, it would probably substitute the ballot with a pale version of caucus room dealing if it could. Indeed, the then NSW Premier Keneally suggested that such a disease did not mean that Labor had done poorly at the 2010 federal election, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/keneally-lashes-out-at-blighs-nsw-disease-jibe-20100823-13imy.html">certainly not more so than their Queensland counterparts</a>: </p>
<p>“The fact is NSW had a net loss of one seat at last weekend’s election and Queensland had a net loss of nine” </p>
<p>Anti-democratic coups have their place then.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21042/original/dhymsyy2-1362616338.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21042/original/dhymsyy2-1362616338.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21042/original/dhymsyy2-1362616338.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21042/original/dhymsyy2-1362616338.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21042/original/dhymsyy2-1362616338.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21042/original/dhymsyy2-1362616338.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21042/original/dhymsyy2-1362616338.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In December 1991, Paul Keating (right) orchestrated a coup against then Prime Minister Bob Hawke (left).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most audacious of such coups was perpetrated by Paul Keating, Labor’s patricidal genius. Australian federal politics is forever stained by Keating’s challenges against Bob Hawke, the second of which was successful in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3738542.html">December 1991</a>. It might even be argued that Keating’s electoral victory cemented his tactic’s legitimacy. It was the crime made good – he had, after all, overthrown the tired father of the party, yielding that victory for the faithful. The tribe was pleased.</p>
<p>A country governed by unelected pollsters and tribal factions rather than policy made by mandate is but a public relations creature. While we can always argue that the “will” of the people is a convenient fiction pressed upon us to justify the legitimacy of a government, the deposing of leaders during their terms without an electoral say is potentially dangerous. </p>
<p>At best, it suggests contempt for electoral processes held in public. At worse it is dangerous to any ideas of integrity we might have for constitution and country. Which suggests that, if ever there was any need for constitutional reform, a provision that preserves the elected leader for the duration of that tenure, or at least till an election is called, should be considered. </p>
<p>Voters, not party room hacks, need to decide.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12682/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Binoy Kampmark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The current wars being waged in Australian electoral politics tend to be over what rights are left to Australian voters regarding their leaders. The ambush of Kevin Rudd by supporters of the current Prime…Binoy Kampmark, Lecturer in Global Studies, Social Science & Planning, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/126782013-03-07T03:07:40Z2013-03-07T03:07:40ZBaillieu: Victorian uncertainty may lead to constitutional confusion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21027/original/bzfcvnz9-1362612174.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu's resignation could trigger a constitutional crisis for the state government.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The dramatic <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/ted-baillieu-resigns-as-victorias-premier/story-e6frf7jo-1226591143726">resignation</a> of Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu may have surprised many but cannot be considered altogether unexpected. </p>
<p>A year that began poorly for the now ex-Premier yesterday completely overwhelmed the government. While the media was focused on the ongoing federal circus in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-04/prime-minister-hits-western-sydney-battleground/4552286">Sydney’s west,</a> the current tumult of Victorian politics appears to have taken centre stage.</p>
<p>The decision of Frankston MP Geoff Shaw to <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/baillieu-government-in-crisis-talks-after-mp-geoff-shaw-quits-liberal-party/story-e6frgczx-1226591459409">quit</a> the state parliamentary Liberal Party has further limited the Coalition’s already slender majority in the 88 seat Legislative Assembly. Prone to the occasional gaffe the former nightclub bouncer and staunch social conservative has come under increased pressure to resign his seat over <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/labor-calls-for-police-investigation-as-ted-baillieu-orders-probe-into-liberal-mp-geoff-shaw-over-abuse-of-taxpayer-funds/story-e6frf7jo-1226361084271">allegations</a> he misused parliamentary entitlements.</p>
<p>In recent months this issue among others has engulfed Baillieu’s premiership and served to partially destabilise the government. Often considered the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/an-accidental-premier-takes-the-slow-road-20111125-1nyyt.html">accidental Premier</a>, Baillieu’s unexpected victory in the <a href="http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/doublewhammy-makes-this-baillieus-victoria-20101214-18wtv.html">2010 election</a> will now be remembered as his lasting contribution to Victorian State politics. Despite engineering the extraordinary result the slim electoral margin checked Baillieu’s grip on the reigns of power.</p>
<p>Incoming Premier Dr Denis Napthine inherits a government absorbed by a potentially volatile numbers game that threatens the ongoing stability of the parliament. With the Liberal-National Coalition on 44 seats (including Speaker Ken Smith) Labor effectively on 43 and Shaw now occupying the crossbenches the Legislative Assembly faces a situation whereby a deadlock could possibly trigger an unprecedented constitutional crisis.</p>
<p>Should Shaw decide to altogether abandon his former colleagues he could hypothetically precipitate a previously unseen period of parliamentary limbo. Typically in Westminster derived systems such a stalemate would ordinarily be broken by dissolving the lower house and calling a fresh election.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21028/original/t6rpcrfp-1362612193.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21028/original/t6rpcrfp-1362612193.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21028/original/t6rpcrfp-1362612193.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21028/original/t6rpcrfp-1362612193.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21028/original/t6rpcrfp-1362612193.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21028/original/t6rpcrfp-1362612193.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21028/original/t6rpcrfp-1362612193.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Denis Napthine is sworn in as Premier of Victoria at Government House in Melbourne on Wednesday, March 6, 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, changes to the State’s constitution enacted by the Bracks Labor government in 2003 established the prevailing system of <a href="http://australianpolitics.com/states/vic/2003/03-03-27_parliamentary-reform.shtml">fixed four-year terms</a>. As a result the only other means by which the Assembly may be dissolved is through a successful motion of no confidence against the government.</p>
<p>A deadlock caused by an even split of numbers between the parties would create a circumstance whereby motions of no confidence could not succeed leaving no possibility of the Assembly being dissolved. Currently, the Victorian constitution provides no alternative mechanism to resolve this dangerous impasse.</p>
<p>A deadlocked Assembly is capable of exposing the more awkward aspects of the Victorian system. In a situation where the numbers are tied, a government, reliant on a functional parliament to pass its legislation, (including supply bills), would be effectively obstructed from doing so.</p>
<p>With the State’s budget only <a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/5771-coalition-calls-for-submissions-for-2013-14-budget.html">two months away</a> the potential implications for the Parliament are profound. How would a government maintain the confidence of the people if it can no longer advance its legislative agenda?</p>
<p>To further complicate matters what is the Governor’s position when the constitution is effectively mute on the subject? In Victoria a Governor would be unable to allow a dissolution that contravenes the standing constitutional provisions that serve as a limit on his/her authority.</p>
<p>Had these issues been more closely considered at the time of the constitutional amendment in 2003 this hypothetical scenario could have been wholly avoided. A common sense solution to this conundrum would be to adjust the number of seats in the Assembly to an odd number (such as is the case in every other State lower house in Australia). Unfortunately (as a result of the 2003 changes) the only process by which the numbers of the Victorian Assembly can be altered is through a referendum.</p>
<p>While the possibility of a constitutional crisis is remote it remains as a threat that looms large over the incoming Premier. Yesterday’s events may have momentarily overwhelmed the government but an imperfect constitution casts a menacing shadow over tomorrow.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The dramatic resignation of Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu may have surprised many but cannot be considered altogether unexpected. A year that began poorly for the now ex-Premier yesterday completely overwhelmed…Dustin Halse, Researcher, Swinburne University of TechnologyBen Rankin, Researcher, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/126802013-03-07T00:38:10Z2013-03-07T00:38:10ZBe careful what you wish for - IBAC and the resignation of Ted Baillieu<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21029/original/hgptzqp8-1362612574.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former Victoria Police commissioner Simon Overland's controversial exit from his role has come to haunt the Liberal-led Victorian coalition government in the wake of Ted Baillieu's resignation as premier.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The surprise at the speed of yesterday’s political events in Victoria, culminating in the Premier’s resignation, was neatly encapsulated by investigative journalist <a href="https://twitter.com/melfyfe/status/309225389975289856">Melissa Fyfe</a> on Twitter: “You go for a beer and the premier of Victoria changes. Amazing.”</p>
<h2>Lingering political questions</h2>
<p>If Liberal MP <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/i-think-you-have-been-burned-eighth-explosive-new-police-tape-reveals-conversation-between-liberal-party-boss-damien-mantach-and-ex-ministerial-adviser-tristan-weston/story-e6frf7kx-1226590485307">Geoff Shaw left the party</a> because of problems with the former premier, will he now try to return? If he does, will the party let him? If not, a refusal would suggest that the tapes released by the Herald Sun earlier this week were the party’s primary concern, and that Shaw’s leaving the party may simply have exacerbated internal tensions and accelerated the process.</p>
<p>As for the tapes themselves, allegations made against Deputy Premier Peter Ryan by his former police adviser Tristan Weston are serious. Regarding matters surrounding the resignation of Commissioner Simon Overland, Weston is heard saying to the Premier’s chief of staff Tony Nutt: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I can’t put any sugar on it. Peter is a liar. Peter lied to the OPI, Peter lied to the Parliament and he’s lied, he’s continuing to lie about what he did and didn’t know.” (Source: <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/i-think-you-have-been-burned-eighth-explosive-new-police-tape-reveals-conversation-between-liberal-party-boss-damien-mantach-and-ex-ministerial-adviser-tristan-weston/story-e6frf7kx-1226590485307">www.heraldsun.com.au</a>)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Is this just a disgruntled ex-adviser? Did Deputy Premier Ryan in fact lie about what he knew? Either way, people are waiting for more answers and Ryan is likely to find himself under increasing pressure.</p>
<h2>Lasting policy problems</h2>
<p>In establishing Victoria’s Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC), the Baillieu government restricted the organisation such that <a href="https://theconversation.com/watchdogs-with-teeth-what-victoria-can-learn-about-fighting-corruption-11185">it could only investigate serious corruption</a>, and only when it had evidence of an indictable offence.</p>
<p>Former Supreme Court judge Tim Smith, QC, has been a vocal critic of IBAC’s constrained scope and high evidentiary threshold. These and similar concerns were joined earlier this week by those of <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/corruption-watchdog-is-flawed-20130305-2fipr.html">former Court of Appeal judge Stephen Charles, QC</a>, who had chaired the government’s panel on IBAC. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21032/original/xghmgkw6-1362613135.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21032/original/xghmgkw6-1362613135.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21032/original/xghmgkw6-1362613135.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21032/original/xghmgkw6-1362613135.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21032/original/xghmgkw6-1362613135.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21032/original/xghmgkw6-1362613135.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21032/original/xghmgkw6-1362613135.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Geoff Shaw MP announced his decision to leave the Liberal party and run as an independent on March 6 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Concerns over the rationale for constraining IBAC haven’t been helped by now public <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/premier-ted-baillieus-top-adviser-tony-nutt-attacks-stasi-culture-of-office-of-police-integrity/story-e6frf7kx-1226589546912">comments from Mr Nutt</a> that the government specifically designed the IBAC legislation to avoid what he alleges was “cowboy, Stasi, bizarre, no judgment, just-fit-people-up” behaviour on the part of IBAC’s predecessor, the Office of Police Integrity (the allegations have been hotly contested as “an outrageous slur” by <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/office-of-police-integrity-not-corrupt-says-former-director-michael-strong/story-e6frf7kx-1226590291069">former OPI director Michael Strong</a>).</p>
<p>The government’s claim that Victorian Ombudsman George Brouwer would be left to look into cases of non-serious corruption and misconduct became clouded by further criticism. In November 2012, when the Ombudsman himself raised <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-11-27/ombudsman-attacks-acorruption-commission/4393848">concerns</a> that the new system would “constrain and compromise the functions of an independent ombudsman for Victoria”.</p>
<h2>By the book</h2>
<p>On paper, Baillieu did what was meant to be done under the new anti-corruption system. He referred allegations of possible misconduct or corruption to IBAC. The government had previously outlined that IBAC could function as a clearing house for complaints, referring cases to the ombudsman if and as necessary. In context of the past and ongoing debate about IBAC, and the tapes released earlier this week, however, things weren’t so neat.</p>
<p>IBAC had been specifically designed to only investigate cases of corruption that are considered to be serious. In <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/premier-ted-baillieus-top-adviser-tony-nutt-attacks-stasi-culture-of-office-of-police-integrity/story-e6frf7kx-1226589546912">Nutt’s words</a>, to avoid besmirching reputations on the basis of allegations, “we’re going to have all sorts of supervising mechanisms so that they’re not unchecked and rampaging around the place”. When <a href="http://www.3aw.com.au/blogs/breaking-news-blog/premier-ted-baillieu-defends-decision-to-call-an-independent-inquiry/20130306-2fjxo.html">asked on 3AW</a> if he believed this was a case of serious corruption, the Premier replied that he did not. Yet Mr Baillieu was referring the case to IBAC. </p>
<p>Even though the government had previously maintained that IBAC could work as a clearing house, this risked looking like handballing the problem to an organisation that - in light of already canvassed and widely voiced concerns about its scope and powers - might not even be able to investigate the matter. In theory, if IBAC determines that there is insufficient evidence of an indictable offence, and/or that there is no serious corruption, then they will not investigate the matter (this may yet be a very high profile test case to see how well the institution functions).</p>
<p>Baillieu made clear in the same interview that should IBAC be unable to investigate, it had the power to in turn refer matters to other investigative bodies if necessary. Through true and appropriate under Victoria’s new anti-corruption regime, this doesn’t do much to dispel any sense among critics - whether inside or outside the party - that the problem is being kicked around instead of addressed directly.</p>
<h2>IBAC - dead before it was born?</h2>
<p>The last few days have left Victorians with reason to worry that they have an anti-corruption system which, even when used as intended, can fuel concerns about the legitimacy or likelihood of investigations or the motivation of a Premier that refers a matter to the chief anti-corruption body. </p>
<p>Unless the perceptions and realities of the problems with IBAC are addressed, these events (and any others like them) are likely to do little to garner public support or confidence in IBAC, regardless of the good intentions and hard work of IBAC staff.</p>
<p>Regardless of what happens in the next few days, and even if there turns out to be no more to the story behind the tapes released by the Herald Sun than we already know, the events as they stand highlight the importance of the new premier taking steps to address lingering doubts and concerns over the ability of IBAC to do what it needs to do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Pottenger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The surprise at the speed of yesterday’s political events in Victoria, culminating in the Premier’s resignation, was neatly encapsulated by investigative journalist Melissa Fyfe on Twitter: “You go for…Mike Pottenger, Lecturer, Statistics & Political Economy, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/82312012-07-19T20:10:14Z2012-07-19T20:10:14ZBronwyn piked on Melbourne, now the Greens are set to swoop<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/13123/original/c9z4hdch-1342657246.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C37%2C2697%2C1661&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Greens candidate Cathy Oke and deputy leader Adam Bandt will be hoping for a win this Saturday.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Juolian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Thanks to the hubris of Bronwyn Pike, the Victorian Labor party is forced to contest a byelection this weekend it did not want or need. </p>
<p>After years of opportunities provided by the Labor party to the former Labor member for the state seat of Melbourne during the good times, Pike has left it vulnerable to the Greens in the byelection caused by her retirement. It will not be lost on her that there will repercussions at the federal level. </p>
<p>With friends like this, Victorian Labor leader Daniel Andrews really doesn’t need enemies.</p>
<h2>From safe to swinging</h2>
<p>Andrews’ position is made even more fraught when the federal impact is taken into account. Once upon a time, both the federal and state seats of Melbourne, which are geographically the same, were among Labor’s safest seats. </p>
<p>But since the early 2000s, the Greens have steadily been gathering momentum in Melbourne, emerging as the second most preferred party for voters behind Labor and ahead of the Liberal party. Their growth culminated in the historical win for Greens’ candidate Adam Bandt, who wrested the federal seat from Labor in 2010.</p>
<p>The general expectation is that the Greens will win Saturday’s byelection for the state seat. This not unreasonable forecast is based partly on a view that there is no reason why the defection of Labor voters to the Greens that began in the 2010 federal election should stop now given the approach of federal Labor under Julia Gillard to such key issues as asylum seekers. </p>
<h2>Strategic absence</h2>
<p>The dynamics of the Melbourne byelection appear to be identical to two other Green successes over Labor in recent federal and state byelections – the federal contest for <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cunningham_by-election,_2002">Cunningham in 2002</a> and the Western Australian state seat of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fremantle_state_by-election,_2009">Fremantle in 2009</a>. </p>
<p>Cunnigham had 13 candidates and Fremantle had 11, but the Melbourne byelection has attracted a Caulfield Cup field of 16 candidates. Most of these are left-leaning, directing preferences to the Greens. And yet, amongst the phalanx of starters, there is no Liberal representative.</p>
<p>The Liberal party’s absence from this contest is a strategic master stroke. By withholding a candidate the contest can’t become a battle between the state government and the opposition at a time when the Ted Baillieu government is struggling in the polls. Particularly since byelections tend to always produce anti-government swings anyway. </p>
<p>It can’t be about state issues if the state government doesn’t come out to play. </p>
<p>Federal angst will thus inevitably leach in to a state contest. Without a Liberal endorsed candidate, the byelection can only be a battle between the opposition forces in Victorian politics, the outcome of which is going to be very damaging for either the Greens or Labor. But in this battle, it is Labor that has much more to lose.</p>
<h2>ALP angst</h2>
<p>Were Labor’s Jennifer Kanis to defy the expectations of the pundits and win Melbourne, the implication for the Greens would simply be that support for the party had reached a plateau, and that it will never win a seat in the Legislative Assembly (lower house). This is not a big deal, really, for the main role for the Greens is in the proportionally elected Legislative Council (upper house) and future prospects for winning seats remain very high. </p>
<p>If, however, Labor loses Melbourne to the Greens, all sorts of problems will emerge for the ALP. </p>
<p>It will give succour to an emerging view that the Greens are enjoying such momentum that Labor is surrendering its inner-urban seats. This view will resonate in federal politics, particularly where there is interest in whether the Green momentum will secure more federal lower house seats, especially in Sydney. </p>
<p>It will also resonate within a federal Labor caucus already at war with itself over the nature of its relationship with the federal Greens.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, back in Victoria, a loss to the Greens will destroy the credibility of opposition leader Daniel Andrews. The Liberal-National coalition state government, with all its policy problems, will gleefully sit back and enjoy the sight of Victorian Labor agonising over the result and what to do with a lame duck leader. </p>
<p>The irony here, of course, is that the Liberal Party will eventually give the seat back to Labor, especially if they maintain the policy followed in the 2010 election of directing preferences away from the Greens. </p>
<p>The Greens’ Cathy Oke may be the next member for Melbourne, but her tenure will probably only extend until November 2014 when the next general election is due and when the Liberals return to the contest. In the meantime, Premier Ted Baillieu and his colleagues will toast the name of Bronwyn Pike and her contribution to giving the Liberal-National state government a break from relentless criticism at a most opportune time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/8231/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Economou does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.
</span></em></p>Thanks to the hubris of Bronwyn Pike, the Victorian Labor party is forced to contest a byelection this weekend it did not want or need. After years of opportunities provided by the Labor party to the former…Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/71772012-05-25T03:33:02Z2012-05-25T03:33:02ZCorrupting influences: does Australia need a National Integrity Commissioner?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10979/original/wv4sfbxk-1337748426.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Now jailed former assistant director of the New South Wales Crime Commission Mark Standen is a key example of how corruption operates in Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian Greens have proposed the introduction of a National Integrity Commission to provide an anti-corruption body operating at the federal level. </p>
<p>Earlier this week, Greens MP <a href="http://adam-bandt.greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/bandt-puts-integrity-commissioner-bill-parliament">Adam Bandt announced the decision</a> to bring forward legislation to create such a body, stating, “Anti-corruption bodies exist in most of the states but there is nothing at a Federal level, so action on an Integrity Commissioner is long overdue.” </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/bill/nicb2010367/">National Integrity Commissioner Bill 2010</a> would establish a national anti-corruption body charged with overseeing public officials and Commonwealth agencies, with powers based on the existing <a href="http://www.aclei.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx">Law Enforcement Integrity Commissioner</a> which currently covers the Australian Federal Police, Crime Commission and Customs. </p>
<p>The bill would broadly empower an National Integrity Commssioner to investigate alleged corrupt activity of “a minister, a parliamentarian, a former parliamentarian, a Commonwealth agency, an employee of a Commonwealth agency or a person employed under the Members of Parliament (Staff) Act 1984 or any other public official.”</p>
<h2>How would it work?</h2>
<p>The goal is laudable, and raises for discussion the important question of how best to design such an organisation, and the possible benefits and disadvantages that can come with different designs. </p>
<p>A consistent national approach is intuitively appealing, with practical advantages. A lack of integrated laws can be exploited to the advantage of corrupt officials or organised criminals. </p>
<p>For example, dealing with organisations that span the country is not made any simpler by having <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/rip/1-10/02.aspx">different laws on motorcycle gangs</a> in different states of Australia. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10980/original/y6ccv75q-1337748850.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10980/original/y6ccv75q-1337748850.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10980/original/y6ccv75q-1337748850.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10980/original/y6ccv75q-1337748850.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10980/original/y6ccv75q-1337748850.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10980/original/y6ccv75q-1337748850.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10980/original/y6ccv75q-1337748850.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Attempts to combat bikie gangs can be complicated by different state laws.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Dean Lewins</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And when one state creates tougher legislation (such as South Australia’s introduction of the <a href="http://www.legislation.sa.gov.au/LZ/C/A/SERIOUS%20AND%20ORGANISED%20CRIME%20(CONTROL)%20ACT%202008.aspx">Serious and Organised Crime (Control) Act 2008</a>, there is an incentive for other states to follow suit, even if the legislation runs the risk of being <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/true-crime-scene/anti-bikie-laws-a-legal-headache/story-fnat7jnn-1226357671428">difficult to enforce</a>. In trying to deal with the crime of corruption, then, Australia might do well to develop a common national approach.</p>
<h2>Overlapping jurisdictions</h2>
<p>The appeal of such a body, however, will need to be tempered by considering the problematic questions surrounding its possible scope and powers, and the risk that the body might become corrupted by the very thing it is created to fight.</p>
<p>The nature of this problem can be observed in the context of arguments about the suitability and capability of organisations such Victoria’s <a href="http://www.opi.vic.gov.au/file.php?61">Office of Police Integrity</a>.</p>
<p>Consideration needs to be given to whether such a national body might ultimately replace the need for state-based commissions and, if not, how the possibly overlapping jurisdictions might interact. Even if the National Integrity Commission is tasked to investigate only those in federal authorities, and the state commissions are restricted to investigating individuals in state organisations, corrupt activity can easily cross such a theoretical distinction. </p>
<p>So even if clear jurisdictional boundaries are hammered out, in practice there is likely to be some overlap between investigations conducted by a national body and existing state organisations. In such cases there are likely to be problems similar to concerns about information sharing between state police forces and the Australian Federal Police when conducting sensitive investigations.</p>
<h2>Playing politics</h2>
<p>To the extent that any jurisdictional overlap requires the input of the states, reaching a consensus a national approach may be additionally complicated by the politics of state-federal relations. </p>
<p>The easiest way to explain the need for a national commission is to demonstrate the nature of the problem. But when the threat or incidence of corruption is mentioned, state governments have an incentive to reiterate their confidence in the mechanisms already in place in their state (and state opposition parties have an incentive to carp about those same mechanisms being inefficient). It’s called politics.</p>
<p>Witness Andrew McIntosh, a minister in the Victorian Baillieu Government, who while in opposition felt that the problem of police corruption in Victoria was serious enough to warrant major changes to the Office of Police Integrity. But in March of 2012, in response to criticism of the limited powers and scope of the Baillieu Government’s proposed Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC), <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/baillieus-shadow-play-20120309-1upxq.html#ixzz1vZ9hdKkx">Mcintosh responded that</a>, “Unlike NSW, unlike Queensland, unlike WA, which did have a serious problem in relation to corruption… in this state we don’t have that particular problem.” </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10961/original/9x3k5yhq-1337739764.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10961/original/9x3k5yhq-1337739764.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10961/original/9x3k5yhq-1337739764.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10961/original/9x3k5yhq-1337739764.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10961/original/9x3k5yhq-1337739764.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10961/original/9x3k5yhq-1337739764.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10961/original/9x3k5yhq-1337739764.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Major criminals like Carl Williams managed to corrupt police in Victoria, leading to establishment of bodies like the OPI.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Great power, great responsibility</h2>
<p>Corruption is not just a persistent problem, it is one with a tendency to spread if left unchecked. This is just one reason why it was disappointing to hear McIntosh’s statement earlier this year. </p>
<p>Regardless of whether the problem of corruption in a state is considered serious or not, unless vigilantly kept in check it will grow. It can rapidly evolve from small-scale unrelated acts of misconduct, to minor cooperative acts of corruption, to large-scale systematic corrupt behaviour within an organisation.</p>
<p>As a result, there are many tough questions and few easy solutions when trying to create a new authority to oversee the problem. Corrupt activities tend to spread from public officials across institutional boundaries to involve private individuals. </p>
<p>This highlights one of the problems restricting the Victorian Office of Police Integrity’s investigations, for example; having to constrain the scope of investigations to police officers, excluding politicians or organised criminals. </p>
<p>Any discussion of a federal anti-corruption commission like that proposed by the Greens will need to carefully weigh how much power and scope to give such bodies.</p>
<h2>Who watches the watchmen?</h2>
<p>The question of how much power to give such bodies is not just a matter of their effectiveness in investigating the problem they are tasked with.</p>
<p><a href="http://elinorostrom.indiana.edu">Elinor Ostrom</a>, a political scientist with a Nobel prize in economics, distinguishes between “first order social dilemmas” - fundamental problems that require rules to solve them - and the “second order social dilemmas” - the problems involved with establishing the rules themselves. </p>
<p>The particularly nasty problem with the latter of these dilemmas is what political scientists and institutional theorists refer to as the “paradox of power”. The paradox is this: how can an organisation be granted sufficient powers to protect people from the threat at hand, while still being constrained from becoming a threat itself?</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10967/original/3j5gkfj5-1337739893.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10967/original/3j5gkfj5-1337739893.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10967/original/3j5gkfj5-1337739893.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10967/original/3j5gkfj5-1337739893.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10967/original/3j5gkfj5-1337739893.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10967/original/3j5gkfj5-1337739893.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10967/original/3j5gkfj5-1337739893.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Legendary “Untouchable” Elliott Ness: the Hollywood template for an anti-corruption officer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">United States Government</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Put more simply - who will police the police? Consider <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mark-standen-found-guilty-at-drugs-trial-20110811-1inr7.html">Mark Standen</a>, former Assistant Director of the NSW Crime Commission (a body with wide-ranging powers to investigate organised crime), and his conviction for his corrupt involvement in the planned importation of large quantities of pseudoephedrine (the very kind of criminal activity he was meant to police). </p>
<p>The creation of a higher standing authority cannot solve the paradox of power - only elevate it to the next level. A National Integrity Commission like that proposed by the Greens to watch over public officials and Commonwealth agencies will ultimately need someone to watch over it as well. </p>
<p>In trying to solve the paradox of power as it pertains to a body like the National Crime Commission (one of the bodies to be overseen by the NIC) by creating a new, encompassing investigative institution we must be careful not to fall victim to a kind of reverse <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matryoshka_doll">matryoshka doll</a> approach, where each collection of smaller bodies is swallowed up by an continuing series of larger ones. </p>
<p>The Australian Greens’ proposal will hopefully put on the table a discussion not only about the possible benefits of a national, unified corruption watchdog, but also the problems involved in ensuring it is neither toothless nor easily corrupted itself. </p>
<p>In planning a response to the slow-burning but ultimately persistent and serious problem of corruption, we would be well advised to remember that whatever form a national anti-corruption body might take, a new overarching authority should not be considered the end of the fight.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/7177/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Pottenger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Australian Greens have proposed the introduction of a National Integrity Commission to provide an anti-corruption body operating at the federal level. Earlier this week, Greens MP Adam Bandt announced…Mike Pottenger, Lecturer, Statistics & Political Economy, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/58902012-03-16T04:07:46Z2012-03-16T04:07:46ZNurses’ dispute with Baillieu highlights pressure on Australia’s ailing healthcare system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/8682/original/73js6gtr-1331858881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Victorian nurses have been clashing with the Victorian government for months.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joe Castro</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The dispute between the Australian Nursing Federation and Victoria’s Baillieu government is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-16/nurses-meet-for-pay-dispute-update/3893192">expected to be resolved</a> today. </p>
<p>Nurses ceased industrial action two weeks ago. For the Victorian community it was a shocking sight to see nurses escalate that industrial action, walk out of their hospitals and away from their patients.</p>
<p>We have to ask – how did it come to this? </p>
<p>The origins of this dispute go back to the 1990s and the policies of the Kennett government which led to a demoralised and angry nursing workforce who were leaving the industry in droves. Nurse-patient ratios were first introduced in Victoria in 2000 by the incoming Bracks government through a decision in the Australian Industrial Relations Commission. The decision was popular with nurses in that it included a beneficial pay package and the first legally enforceable nurse-patient ratios in the world. </p>
<p>However, the ratios were a problem for hospitals. They were not properly costed, and centrally determined nurse-patient ratios are a crude measure. They are not sensitive to patient acuity and they can limit managerial discretion. In two consequent bargaining rounds the Labor government tried to dismantle the ratios without success. </p>
<p>The ratios are popular with nurses who have little trust in governments and believe that they need some protection and control over increasingly stressful workloads. </p>
<p>The ratios have also become a symbol of collective achievement by a female dominated workforce that is often undervalued. The nursing profession has a long history of struggle over professional status and career structures, over improvements in wages and conditions, and to protect and enhance nursing skills and roles.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/8683/original/h6fwsrym-1331858972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/8683/original/h6fwsrym-1331858972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8683/original/h6fwsrym-1331858972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8683/original/h6fwsrym-1331858972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8683/original/h6fwsrym-1331858972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8683/original/h6fwsrym-1331858972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8683/original/h6fwsrym-1331858972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The public will always pick nurses over politicians.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joe Castro</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Australian Nursing Federation has been at the forefront of many of these struggles and is a union that has grown against a background of international union decline. The Victorian branch of the ANF credits its growth to the fact that it believes it listens and acts on the concerns of its members and in the interests of patient care. Its resistance to the introduction of less skilled and lesser-paid health assistants instead of registered nurses is part of this philosophy. The ANF has had a lot to lose in the current dispute.</p>
<p>Ultimately however, it is the state government that has had most to lose. Healthcare was always the Achilles’ heel of the Kennett government. Nurses are popular with the community, much more so than politicians, and no one wants to see nurses ground into the dust. The Baillieu government’s enterprise bargaining approach linking a wage increase to productivity gains through rolling back the ratios is not new and it is not a positive strategy for change. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/ed_docs/Cabinet_in_confidence.pdf">leaked cabinet document</a> containing government plans to grind the nurses into submission coupled with the premier’s second cousin and former politician Marshall Baillieu’s <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/disrespect-all-round-as-premiers-cousin-weighs-in-20120306-1uigf.html">arrogant gesture</a> to the protesting nurses did not help. </p>
<p>The problem is that there are no real winners in such a strategy – if the ANF is seen to have backed down and the ratios weakened there is a real risk that Victorian public hospitals will be left with an angry and demoralised nursing workforce and the danger of more nurses leaving the industry – creating even more work for those left behind. </p>
<p>If the government is seen to back down, employers will feel that yet again an opportunity is missed and yet again they will be expected to do more with less with little support from those who provide the resources. Trust on all sides will have been undermined in the process. The reality is that public healthcare it is still a system under pressure due to increasing healthcare demand and a shortage of skilled professionals in particular nurses. </p>
<p>The state government and hospital employers do have to act – they have to find new ways to organise health care work that is efficient, effective and provides a quality outcome. In other countries governments are looking at different approaches to skill mix and skills escalation between the professions. </p>
<p>Many hospitals in Australia are currently experimenting with different approaches to work process change some of these imported from other industries such as Lean production techniques. </p>
<p>At the coalface, multidisciplinary teams are working together to find better ways to provide good quality care for patients. It is a positive step that the state government has been seen to take charge to find a resolution to the dispute before more irreparable damage is done. </p>
<p>Both sides need to work towards a responsive and sustainable healthcare workforce. This cannot be achieved in an adversarial climate – only in one based on trust and mutual respect. There is much to be done whatever the outcome is today, the dispute isn’t over just yet. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/5890/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pauline Stanton has received funding from the ARC to explore Work Process change in hospitals. She also received funding from the ANF in the mid 2000s for a survey exploring why nurses joined the ANF. She is affiliated with Victoria University Melbourne.</span></em></p>The dispute between the Australian Nursing Federation and Victoria’s Baillieu government is expected to be resolved today. Nurses ceased industrial action two weeks ago. For the Victorian community it…Pauline Stanton, Professor of Human Resource Management, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.