tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca/topics/wind-farm-32387/articleswind farm – The Conversation2023-11-07T19:35:03Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140632023-11-07T19:35:03Z2023-11-07T19:35:03ZMaking money green: Australia takes its first steps towards a net zero finance strategy<p>Just north of Jamestown in South Australia, 70 kilometres east of the Spencer Gulf and next to a wind farm of nearly 100 turbines, stands the world’s <a href="https://www.cefc.com.au/where-we-invest/case-studies/sa-big-battery-a-game-changer/">first big battery</a>. </p>
<p>Built in partnership with <a href="https://www.tesla.com/videos/powerpack-hornsdale">Tesla</a> and financed and operated by <a href="https://www.energy-storage.news/upgrade-at-tesla-battery-project-demonstrates-feasibility-of-once-in-a-century-energy-transformation-for-australia/">Neoen</a>, a French multinational renewable energy developer, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Power_Reserve">Hornsdale Power Reserve</a> and other big battery projects could stimulate a homegrown battery industry, contributing many <a href="https://fbicrc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Charging-Ahead_Final-Report_Full-17-March-2023-1.pdf">billions of dollars and thousands of jobs</a> to the Australian economy. But for that industry to rise, it will need money.</p>
<p>Australia aspires not only to transition its economy to net zero emissions, but to become a green energy superpower. That means building a host of solar and wind farms, batteries, electric vehicle charging stations, upgrades to the grid and to all kinds of buildings, as well as investments in new technology. </p>
<p>These investments and big infrastructure projects don’t come cheap. Getting to net zero emissions by 2050 requires investment in renewable energy of A$754 billion in power generation alone, according to <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2022-06/Supercharging%20transition%202021%20Update%20-%20Oct%2022%20update.docx.pdf">research</a> by the <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/isf">UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures</a> and funded by Future Super.</p>
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<h2>The size of the green finance challenge</h2>
<p>By 2030, the world will have to invest <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-a-decade-of-data/">an estimated US$4.3 trillion</a> a year – roughly <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true">the GDP of Japan</a>, the world’s third-largest economy – in climate finance. These financial flows need to grow by 21% a year, on average. Without this enormous increase, the economic transition will not happen in time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>The scale of financing means that superannuation funds and other big institutional investors <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/super-funds-voice-concerns-over-reaching-2030-green-targets/news-story/43aed4b3d27a80c1f8cc349390acc4a8">must be involved</a>. They need to know where their money is going, and whether investments are genuine or a case of “greenwashing”. They need certainty that companies in which they invest have solid plans to reduce their climate risk, and the ability to ask the companies questions when they don’t.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<p>But current financial regulation is not set up to support such best practice. To give just one example, default superannuation funds lack the <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-12/Methodology%20paper%20-%20MySuper%20Heatmap.pdf">benchmarks</a> – measures of performance assessed by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority – they need to invest in start-up businesses that are developing clean energy technologies. </p>
<p>Successive Australian governments have been slow to grasp this reality, and we are now playing catch-up with many other countries. </p>
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<h2>Australia releases its strategy</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2023-456756#:%7E:text=The%20strategy's%20policy%20priorities%20are,Australian%20Government%20leadership%20and%20engagement.">Australian government’s Sustainable Finance Strategy</a>, <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/new-steps-albanese-governments-sustainable-finance">released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers</a> last Thursday, lays solid foundations for this recovery. Yet more needs to be done if Australia is to achieve the strategy’s stated ambition to be a global sustainability finance leader.</p>
<p>The strategy is arranged around <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2023-456756#:%7E:text=The%20strategy's%20policy%20priorities%20are,Australian%20Government%20leadership%20and%20engagement.">three core pillars</a>. The first focuses on creating access to information that is credible, accurate and of practical value. It seeks to ensure markets operate efficiently and money flows to where it is most needed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<p>From July 1 2024, large Australian companies and financial institutions will have to <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/news/mandatory-climate-related-financial-disclosures-for-australian-companies-explained/#:%7E:text=Under%20Treasury's%20proposal%2C%20companies%20will,requiring%20substantial%20forward%2Dlooking%20information.">disclose information</a> about the impacts of climate on their business, the risks climate change poses to their operations, and how they plan to decarbonise. </p>
<p>The disclosure requirements will be based on <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ifrs-sustainability-standards-navigator/ifrs-s2-climate-related-disclosures/#:%7E:text=IFRS%20S2%20requires%20an%20entity,related%20risks%20and%20opportunities%20that">internationally accepted standards</a>, to ensure Australian and overseas investors can compare data across companies and countries. </p>
<p>The government is also supporting the development of an <a href="https://www.asfi.org.au/taxonomy">Australian sustainable finance taxonomy</a> – a set of criteria that enables investors to evaluate whether and to what extent an investment supports sustainability goals. </p>
<p>A taxonomy spells out which investments result in real decarbonisation, and reduces the likelihood of false claims about the sustainability of projects and investments. A government agency will manage the taxonomy, which will start as a voluntary code but may eventually become mandatory. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>Large companies will also be required to disclose their net zero transition plan, if they have one. With companies representing <a href="https://acsi.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Promises-Pathways-Performance-Climate-reporting-in-the-ASX200-August-2023.pdf">80% of the market capitalisation</a> of ASX 200 companies pledging to achieve net zero emissions, the government wants to ensure their plans are credible. It wants the corporate regulator, the <a href="https://asic.gov.au/">Australian Securities and Investment Commission</a> (ASIC), to set out its expectations of the plans – a welcome step.</p>
<p>The second pillar focuses on building the capabilities of Australia’s financial system regulators to manage risk and to clamp down on greenwashing – the practice of making misleading or deceptive claims about the environmental benefits of activities or assets. </p>
<h2>Fighting greenwashing</h2>
<p>ASIC Deputy Chair Karen Chester believes the economic cost and loss of investor confidence caused by greenwashing “<a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/speeches/climate-change-urgency-integrity-ambition/">cannot be overstated</a>”. Her organisation has set out guidelines to help financial institutions identify it. This year ASIC launched its <a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2023-releases/23-043mr-asic-launches-first-court-proceedings-alleging-greenwashing/">first three legal actions</a>, including one against the local arm of US investment giant <a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2023-releases/23-196mr-asic-commences-greenwashing-case-against-vanguard-investments-australia/">Vanguard</a>, and another against <a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2023-releases/23-215mr-asic-commences-greenwashing-case-against-active-super/">Active Super</a>, which allegedly falsely claimed it had eliminated investments, such as coal mining, that posed too great a risk to the environment and the community. </p>
<p>The third pillar concerns government leadership and engagement. Such a large and rapid increase in the scale of private sector finance requires growth in a range of financial assets, including shares, bonds and other kinds of debt. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>The government is supporting the development of a <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2023/sep/green-and-sustainable-finance-in-australia.html">green bond market</a> by issuing <a href="https://www.moneymanagement.com.au/features/all-eyes-australias-inaugural-sovereign-green-bonds">Australia’s first green sovereign bond</a> in June. These bonds are designed to establish standards for lending and borrowing for all green finance; they will also help the government to fund projects such as electric vehicle charging infrastructure. </p>
<p>Finally, the strategy recognises the importance of <a href="https://www.adb.org/what-we-do/funds/australian-climate-finance-partnership">collaboration across the Asia-Pacific</a>. If Australia achieves its goal of becoming a regional sustainable finance hub it would not only benefit our national interest but help Pacific Island nations to raise the finance to decarbonise. </p>
<h2>What’s missing from the strategy?</h2>
<p>The strategy does not focus on <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2022-10/Advancing%20climate%20skills%20in%20the%20Australian%20financial%20system%20FINAL_0.pdf">green finance skills</a> and competencies. Yet these capabilities, ranging from a basic understanding of what business activities are unsustainable to specialist expertise in the use of scenario analysis to assess climate risk, are essential to the net zero transition. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-original-and-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy-213879">The original and still the best: why it's time to renew Australia's renewable energy policy</a>
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<p>LinkedIn’s recent <a href="https://economicgraph.linkedin.com/research/global-green-skills-report">Green Skills Report</a> shows that, globally, the finance sector is lagging behind other sectors in building green skills. And Australia ranks only 30th in a list of countries on its share of talent for green finance.</p>
<p>Australia’s financial system must urgently transform itself to meet the climate challenge. If the financing of the transition were a bicycle race, Australia has now caught up to the global peloton. The next step is to take the lead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214063/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Atherton is a member of the Australian Sustainable Finance Institute's Capability Reference Group</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gordon Noble does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If big money is going to invest in clean energy and technology, the rules have to be clear. Australia’s launch of a green finance strategy last week was a good start but there is further to go.Alison Atherton, Program Lead, Business, Economy and Governance at the Institute for Sustainable Futures., University of Technology SydneyGordon Noble, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138642023-10-25T19:10:36Z2023-10-25T19:10:36ZBeyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land<p><a href="https://nntc.com.au/news_latest/the-net-zero-2060-goal-will-need-to-rely-on-australias-indigenous-estate-says-new-findings/">Many</a> of the big wind and solar farms planned to help Australia achieve net zero emissions by 2050 will be built on the lands and waters of First Nations peoples. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00994-6">More than half</a> of the projects that will extract critical minerals to drive the global clean energy transition overlap with Indigenous-held lands.</p>
<p>Australia’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilbara">Pilbara</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimberley_(Western_Australia)">Kimberley</a> regions have high rates of Indigenous land tenure, while hosting some of world’s best co-located solar and wind energy resources. Such abundance presents big opportunities for energy exports, <a href="https://theconversation.com/red-dirt-yellow-sun-green-steel-how-australia-could-benefit-from-a-global-shift-to-emissions-free-steel-179286">green steel</a> and <a href="https://www.bp.com/en_au/australia/home/who-we-are/reimagining-energy/decarbonizing-australias-energy-system/renewable-energy-hub-in-australia.html">zero carbon products</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2021/may/17/who-owns-australia">Almost 60% of Australia</a> is subject to some level of First Nations’ rights and interests, including exclusive possession rights (akin to freehold) over a quarter of the continent. So the stakes for all players are high.</p>
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<p>In 2020, after news Rio Tinto had <a href="https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/trending-topics/inquiry-into-juukan-gorge#:%7E:text=In%20May%202020%2C%20we%20destroyed,on%20which%20our%20business%20operates.">legally destroyed</a> the sacred Juukan Gorge rock shelter in order to gain access to more than $100 million worth of iron ore, we wrote an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-aboriginal-people-have-little-say-over-energy-projects-on-their-land-139119">article</a> questioning how much legal say First Nations people would have over massive new wind and solar farms planned for their Country. We asked whether the move to a zero-carbon economy “would be a just transition for First Nations?”</p>
<h2>The long but hopeful journey back from Juukan Gorge</h2>
<p>Much has happened in the past three years, and while more needs to be done, some signs are promising.</p>
<p>First, the furore and subsequent parliamentary <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/about/reporting/obligations/government-responses/destruction-of-juukan-gorge">inquiry</a> following the Juukan Gorge incident forced the resignation of <a href="https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/rio-tinto-ceo-top-executives-resign-amid-cave-blast-crisis/">Rio Tinto boss</a> Jean-Sebastien Jacques. Companies were put on notice that they can no longer run roughshod over First Nations communities. <a href="https://www.atns.net.au/climate-repair-project">Research in progress</a> indicates the clean energy industry <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/kane-thornton-opening-address-to-the-australian-clean-energy-summit">has heard</a> this message. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">The human factor: why Australia's net zero transition risks failing unless it is fair</a>
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<p>Second, in 2021 the <a href="https://www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au">First Nations Clean Energy Network</a> – a group of prominent First Nations community organisers, lawyers, engineers and financial experts – was created and began to undertake significant advocacy work with governments and industry. </p>
<p>The network has released several <a href="https://www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au/network_guides">useful guides</a> on best practice on First Peoples’ Country. Again, <a href="https://www.atns.net.au/climate-repair-project">research</a> indicates the clean energy industry is paying attention to the work of the network. </p>
<p>Third, there is a question whether the <a href="https://aiatsis.gov.au/about-native-title">Native Title Act</a> allows large-scale clean energy developments to go ahead without native title holders’ permission. We are increasingly <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629621003455">convinced</a> the only way such developments will <a href="https://caepr.cass.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/2022/5/WP_143_Maynard.pdf">gain approval</a> through the Native Title Act is through an <a href="http://www.nntt.gov.au/ILUAs/Pages/default.aspx#:%7E:text=What%20is%20an%20ILUA%3F,least%20part%20of%20the%20area">Indigenous Land Use Agreement</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-original-and-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy-213879">The original and still the best: why it's time to renew Australia's renewable energy policy</a>
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<p>Moreover, <a href="https://assets.nationbuilder.com/fncen/pages/326/attachments/original/1692660875/Queensland_policy_overview_-_First_Nations_and_Clean_Energy_Aug_2023.pdf?1692660875">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/diversification-leases">Western Australia</a> have both implemented policies and South Australia is developing <a href="https://www.legislation.sa.gov.au/lz?path=/b/current/hydrogen%20and%20renewable%20energy%20bill%202023">legislation</a> that make it clear these states will require renewable energy developers to negotiate an agreement with First Nations land holders. Because these agreements are voluntary, native title holders can refuse to allow large wind and solar farms on their Country.</p>
<p>As always, these decisions come with caveats. Governments can compulsorily acquire land, and many of the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19452829.2021.1901670">power imbalances</a> we observed in our earlier article persist. These include the power corporations have – unlike most Indigenous communities – to employ independent legal and technical advice about proposed projects, and to easily access finance when a community would like to develop a project itself.</p>
<h2>Promising partnerships on the road to net zero</h2>
<p>Are First Nations peoples refusing to have wind and solar projects on their land? No, they are not. Many significant proposed projects announced in the last few years show huge promise in terms of First Nations ownership and control.</p>
<p>In Western Australia the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-17/yindjibarndi-to-use-exclusive-native-title-land-for-renewables/102609826">partnership</a> between Yindjibarndi Aboriginal Corporation and renewable energy company ACEN plans to build three gigawatts of solar and wind infrastructure on Yindjibarndi exclusive possession native title. Mirning traditional owners hold equity stakes in one of the largest green energy projects in the world, the massive <a href="https://wgeh.com.au/mirning#:%7E:text=The%20WA%20Mirning%20People%20are,transcontinental%20lines%20in%20the%20North.">Western Green Energy Hub</a> located on their lands in the great Australian Bight.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>Further north, Balanggarra traditional owners, the MG Corporation and the Kimberley Land Council have together announced a landmark East Kimberley Clean Energy <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/aboriginal-backing-for-3b-kimberley-hydrogen-project-20230717-p5dovg">project</a> aimed at producing green hydrogen and ammonia for export. </p>
<p>Across the border in the Northern Territory, Larrakia Nation and the Jawoyn Association have created Desert Springs Octopus, a majority Indigenous-owned <a href="https://octopusinvestments.com.au/insights/desert-springs-octopus-announces-new-renewable-energy-agreement/">company</a> backed by Octopus Australia. </p>
<p>Still, much more needs to happen to provide Indigenous communities with proper consent and control. In its 2023 <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/media-statements/Cook%20Labor%20Government/Milestone-new-legislation-helps-cut-red-tape-20230810#:%7E:text=The%20amendments%20which%20deliver%20a,Act%202023(the%20Act).">amendments</a> to allow for renewable energy projects on pastoral leases, the Western Australian government could have given native title holders more control but it chose not to. And much needed reforms to cultural heritage laws in WA were scrapped following <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-10/roger-cook-leadership-aboriginal-cultural-heritage-act/102706694?utm_campaign=newsweb-article-new-share-null&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web">a backlash from farmers</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Made in America: how Biden's climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero</a>
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<p>In New South Wales, some clean energy developers seem to be avoiding Aboriginal lands, perhaps because they think it will be easier to negotiate with individual landholders. The result is lost <a href="https://assets.nationbuilder.com/fncen/pages/232/attachments/original/1685504567/Norman_Briggs_Apolonio_Discussionpaper_012023.pdf?1685504567">opportunities for partnership</a>, much needed <a href="https://arena.org.au/first-nations-environmental-work/">know-how</a> and <a href="https://soundcloud.com/solarinsiders/the-power-of-putting-first-nations-first?utm_source=clipboard&utm_campaign=wtshare&utm_medium=widget&utm_content=https%253A%252F%252Fsoundcloud.com%252Fsolarinsiders%252Fthe-power-of-putting-first-nations-first">mutual benefit</a>. </p>
<p>In the case of critical mineral deposits on or near lands subject to First Nations’ title, <a href="https://nit.com.au/11-04-2023/5559/the-practical-effect-of-an-indigenous-voice-the-case-of-critical-minerals">not nearly enough</a> has been done to ensure these communities will benefit from their extraction.</p>
<h2>Why free, prior and informed consent is crucial</h2>
<p>To ensure the net zero transition is just, First Nations must be guaranteed “free, prior and informed consent” to any renewable energy or critical mineral project proposed for their lands and waters, as <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2018/11/UNDRIP_E_web.pdf">the UN Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples</a> makes clear.</p>
<p>So long as governments can compulsorily acquire native title to expedite a renewable energy project and miners are allowed to mine critical minerals (or any mineral) without native title holders’ consent, the net zero transition will transgress this internationally recognised right. </p>
<p>The Commonwealth government has agreed in principle with the recommendations of the Juukan Gorge inquiry to review native title legislation to address inequalities in the position of First Nations peoples when they are negotiating <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/australian-response-to-destruction-of-juukan-gorge.pdf">access to their lands and waters</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>The meaningful participation of First Nations rights holders is critical to de-risking clean energy projects. Communities must decide the forms participation takes – full or part ownership, leasing and so on – after they have properly assessed their options. Rapid electrification through wind and solar developments cannot <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/ark-energy-halves-size-of-queensland-wind-farm-but-doubles-size-of-turbines/">come</a> at the expense of land clearing and loss of biodiversity. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.atns.net.au/climate-repair-project">Ongoing research</a> highlights that when negotiating land access for these projects, First Nations people are putting protection of the environment first when negotiating the footprint of these developments. That’s good news for all Australians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ganur Maynard was formerly a member of the steering committee of the First Nations Clean Energy Network. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Riley, Janet Hunt, and Lily O'Neill do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s road to net zero must pass through Indigenous-held land, which is likely to host many clean energy projects. First Nations people want partnerships that help them protect their Country.Lily O'Neill, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneBrad Riley, Research Fellow, Australian National UniversityGanur Maynard, Indigenous Knowledge Holder, Indigenous KnowledgeJanet Hunt, Honorary Associate Professor, CAEPR, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081162023-07-11T13:54:49Z2023-07-11T13:54:49ZOffshore windfarms could offer new habitats for lobsters – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536584/original/file-20230710-25-qjfszb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C0%2C4344%2C2874&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The European lobster (Homarus gammarus)</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/european-lobster-homarus-gammarus-1182497287">Dave M Hunt Photography/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past decade, offshore wind turbines have become an ever more present feature along UK coastlines. As part of reaching net zero, the <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9783/CBP-9783.pdf">government has ambitious plans</a> for increasing the capacity of offshore wind from 13.9GW to 50GW by 2050.</p>
<p>Expanding the UK’s renewable energy sector is necessary to replace fossil fuels and meet increasing energy demands. But the rate at which offshore windfarm development is planned makes it difficult to understand the effect it will have on the marine environment and the people who rely on it for their livelihood. </p>
<p>To date, most offshore wind turbines have been built using fixed foundations. To protect the foundations from erosion, large deposits of rocks and boulders – called “scour protection” – are placed around the base of each turbine. This means that with each new windfarm, there is an increase in the amount of such material in the marine environment.</p>
<p><a href="https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/80/5/1410/7145793#409536204">Our new study</a> shows the European lobster is making use of the scour protection as shelter. The presence of this commercially important species within these sites suggests fishing opportunities may develop from future windfarm construction.</p>
<h2>The reef effect</h2>
<p>When offshore windfarms are constructed in sandy habitats, the addition of scour protection leads to a change in the type of habitat available to marine life. This may have knock-on effects for marine organisms such as allowing certain species to occupy areas they were not previously found.</p>
<p>This process is often referred to as the “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/artificial-reef">artificial reef</a> effect”. It is considered one the most important effects of offshore windfarm development. However, we have relatively little data to help us understand how species are interacting with scour protection within offshore windfarms, and what effects these might have on marine life and hence on local fishing industries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Wind turbines in the sea at dusk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536630/original/file-20230710-29-tvknt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536630/original/file-20230710-29-tvknt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536630/original/file-20230710-29-tvknt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536630/original/file-20230710-29-tvknt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536630/original/file-20230710-29-tvknt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536630/original/file-20230710-29-tvknt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536630/original/file-20230710-29-tvknt8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most offshore wind turbines have been built using large deposits of rocks and boulders.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/offshore-wind-turbines-farm-sunset-1454940068">TebNad/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We used acoustic telemetry, which is a widely used aquatic tracking method, to record the movements of 33 lobsters within an offshore windfarm in the Irish Sea. We found that they favoured residing in areas of scour protection. More than 50% of all our lobster detections were recorded within 35 metres of the scour protection. </p>
<p>Lobsters typically make use of crevices in rocks and reef as shelter and will return to the same crevices after feeding or other activities. We recorded the lobsters making frequent movements to and from the same areas of scour protection. Four months later, more than 50% of the lobsters were still present in the same areas of scour they were originally detected at. </p>
<p>We can’t be sure what the short excursions away from the scour protection mean. However, we believe our results highlight that the addition of scour protection within offshore windfarms is creating a habitat for lobsters. </p>
<h2>Increasing lobster populations</h2>
<p>Offshore engineering projects, including windfarm development, can harm the marine environment. For instance, electromagnetic fields and underwater noise generated as part of construction and operation may have detrimental effects on marine species. And as a result of taking up large marine areas, these developments affect existing marine-based industries, in particular small-scale commercial fisheries. </p>
<p>Our research has highlighted an opportunity to work towards lessening the potentially harmful effects of offshore engineering. If the scour protection already installed as part of offshore windfarm construction can support lobsters, then it is likely that increasing the volume of scour rocks (or modifying the type of scour), could work towards promoting increased lobster populations within offshore windfarms. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weve-discovered-why-some-whales-stop-feeding-in-response-to-the-sound-of-sonar-179541">We've discovered why some whales stop feeding in response to the sound of sonar</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This might help to increase ecological value and maximise fishing opportunities within these sites. There is potential that this could offset, to some extent, the disturbance to fishing areas. It could also compensate fishing communities that are negatively affected by offshore windfarm construction.</p>
<p>However, for us to minimise the effects of offshore windfarm development and maximise the potential benefits of creating new homes for lobsters, we need to study the topic further. We must discover the most suitable ways of increasing lobster populations using scour protection, such as the ideal boulder size to create crevices suitable for lobster shelter. We must also study the logistics of fishing within these sites. </p>
<p>We are now working alongside the fishing community of north Wales to investigate the abundance of lobsters within existing offshore windfarms. We are aiming to quantify and predict the potential fishing opportunities that may arise from offshore windfarm construction.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harry Thatcher receives funding from the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Wilcockson receives funding from the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).</span></em></p>New research shows European lobsters are using the deposits of rocks and boulders at the base of wind turbines as shelter.Harry Thatcher, PhD Candidate, Department of Life Sciences, Aberystwyth UniversityDavid Wilcockson, Reader in Biological Sciences, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1699322021-10-17T03:21:05Z2021-10-17T03:21:05ZBarnaby Joyce has refused to support doubling Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction targets – but we could get there so cheaply and easily<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426582/original/file-20211014-17-14uekd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C9%2C3230%2C2143&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Prime Minister Scott Morrison tries to land a Coalition climate policy deal ahead of the international <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26 summit in Glasgow</a>, Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce on Sunday ruled out supporting more ambitious 2030 targets.</p>
<p>The current 2030 target aims to cut emissions by <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Summary%20Report%20Australias%202030%20Emission%20Reduction%20Target.pdf">26-28% below 2005 levels</a>, and has been criticised by <a href="https://theconversation.com/154-australian-scientists-demand-climate-policy-that-matches-the-science-64359">scientists</a> and the international community as far too weak.</p>
<p>But ahead of a Nationals party room meeting on Sunday to discuss changes to national climate policy, Joyce declared it “highly unlikely” he would support a doubling of the 2030 target, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-17/simon-birmingham-denies-climate-change-policies-held-hostage/100545840?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web">according to</a> ABC reports.</p>
<p>If Australia was to adopt the bolder target, it would bring us in line with our key ally and trading partner, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies">the United States</a>, and would be broadly in line with the targets of other allies, the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en">European Union</a> and the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-enshrines-new-target-in-law-to-slash-emissions-by-78-by-2035">United Kingdom</a>. It would see Australia become a valued and relevant party to the negotiations at Glasgow, rather than a <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-o-phile-dundee-australias-climate-denial-outed-in-massive-times-square-billboard/">resented freeloader</a>. </p>
<p>As a professor of engineering and an author of many research papers considering what’s needed to <a href="http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/">reach 100% renewable energy</a>, I believe Australia could halve its 2030 emissions with minimal cost and inconvenience. Here’s how it could be done. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man in blue shirt talks to journalists" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce says it’s ‘highly unlikely’ he will support a doubling of Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction target.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>By the megatonnes</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/topic/data-and-publications/greenhouse-gas">top three sources</a> of Australia’s emissions are electricity (34%), heating from burning fossil fuels in homes and factories (20%), and transport (18%).</p>
<p>Australia’s emissions baseline year is 2005, when the total emissions <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Summary%20Report%20Australias%202030%20Emission%20Reduction%20Target.pdf">were 612 million tonnes</a> (megatonnes) of carbon dioxide equivalent. </p>
<p>By 2020, emissions had fallen to <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/topic/data-and-publications/greenhouse-gas">498 megatonnes</a>, mostly because the rates of land clearing, another big source of emissions, are much lower now than in 2005.</p>
<p>This puts us well on track to meet and beat Australia’s current 2030 target, which equates to about 453 megatonnes. We will easily reach this soft target by continuing to displace coal generation of electricity with solar and wind at the current rate of <a href="http://cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About/Pages/News%20and%20updates/NewsItem.aspx?ListId=19b4efbb-6f5d-4637-94c4-121c1f96fcfe&ItemId=911">7 gigawatts per year</a>, provided we avoid new sources of emissions.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, United States President <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/">Joe Biden</a> announced his commitment to reduce US emissions 50-52% by 2030. </p>
<p>Australia should offer to match this at the Glasgow summit. Cutting, say, 51% of Australia’s 2005 levels would bring Australia’s emissions down to just 300 megatonnes in 2030.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-can-beat-its-2030-emissions-target-but-the-morrison-government-barely-lifted-a-finger-169835">Yes, Australia can beat its 2030 emissions target. But the Morrison government barely lifted a finger</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>OK, so how do we do it?</h2>
<p>The task of reaching 300 megatonnes in 2030 is straightforward, and with around zero net cost. It would see:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>90% of electricity generation coming from solar, wind and hydro in 2030 (three-quarters of the task)</p></li>
<li><p>90% of new sales of vehicles and heating equipment be electric from 2027 (one-quarter of the task)</p></li>
<li><p>no new emissions sources. For example, encouraging fossil gas companies to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-beetaloo-drilling-program-brings-potential-health-and-social-issues-for-aboriginal-communities-in-remote-nt-165392">frack large new areas</a> makes the task more onerous because of methane leakage.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Let’s look at transport first. Curtailing sales of petrol vehicles with a combination of incentives and regulation would see nearly all vehicles become electric by the mid-2030s, as old cars retire. </p>
<p>While the federal government has been famously <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/10/scott-morrison-walks-back-end-the-weekend-rhetoric-on-electrical-vehicles">unenthusiastic about electric vehicles</a>, states and territories are already offering <a href="https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2021/06/heres-a-state-by-state-guide-to-electric-vehicle-ev-incentives/">modest incentives</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/up-to-90-of-electricity-from-solar-and-wind-the-cheapest-option-by-2030-csiro-analysis-151831">Up to 90% of electricity from solar and wind the cheapest option by 2030: CSIRO analysis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All vehicles could become electric when older cars retire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The bulk of emissions cuts will come from the electricity sector, because <a href="https://theconversation.com/up-to-90-of-electricity-from-solar-and-wind-the-cheapest-option-by-2030-csiro-analysis-151831">the cost</a> of solar and wind technology has fallen <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?list=BRO&pid=csiro:EP208181&expert=false&sb=RECENT&n=10&rpp=2">below coal and gas</a>. </p>
<p>As of this month, Australia’s National Electricity Market <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m">derives 36% of its electricity</a> demand from renewables (mostly solar and wind), and is tracking towards 50% in 2025. Coal burning makes up 60%, but is falling quickly because of growing competition from solar and wind. Gas generation has fallen to just 4%. </p>
<p>The wholesale market price has also fallen sharply from 2020, <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m">as a flood of</a> new solar and wind farms entered the market. This means the faster we deploy solar and wind, the lower electricity prices will be and the faster we reduce emissions.</p>
<p>The biggest impediment to rapid deployment of solar and wind is a lack of new transmission cables to bring new solar and wind power from the regions to the cities. The government needs to facilitate a national transmission network to get rid of congestion when transmitting renewable electricity — then stand back as solar and wind farm companies rush to utilise it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia has a wealth of sunlight, giving us huge potential for deploying solar power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Australia’s natural advantage</h2>
<p>Not only is the market for renewable energy dramatically improving, Australia also has a natural advantage. Compared with most other developed nations, Australia has excellent solar and wind resources where most people actually live, near the sea. </p>
<p>Australia also has a big head start on installing rooftop solar, solar farms and windfarms, helped along by <a href="http://theconversation.com/how-an-aussie-invention-could-soon-cut-5-of-the-worlds-greenhouse-gas-emissions-121571">strong Australian-developed solar technology</a> and political support between 2007 and 2013.</p>
<p>In fact, in 2020 Australia was among the top three global leaders in deploying new <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/March/Renewable-Capacity-Statistics-2021">renewable energy capacity</a>, alongside the Netherlands and Norway, as the chart below shows. These three nations deployed new renewables per capita at 10 times the global rate, and between three and five times faster than China, Japan, Europe and the USA. </p>
<p>The fastest change in global energy systems in history is underway. Due to their their compelling economic advantage, solar and wind provided <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8836526">three-quarters of new electricity generating capacity worldwide</a>, and 99% of new capacity in Australia, in 2020. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data for this chart is from the International Renewable Energy Agency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Blakers</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cutting further to 100 megatonnes</h2>
<p>Reducing emissions to 300 megatonnes in 2030 would place Australia <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119678">on track to just 100 megatonnes</a> sometime in the 2030s, at low cost. We’d eventually see emissions fully removed from electricity, land transport and heating as, for example, electric vehicles replace retiring older cars and retiring gas heaters are replaced.</p>
<p>It’s also important to note that every year, coal and gas mining releases around <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/topic/data-and-publications/greenhouse-gas">50 megatonnes of “fugitive” methane emissions</a> — leaks from coal mining and gas fracking. But this, too, will vanish in Australia when other countries stop buying Australian coal and gas. Presumably, this will be before 2050 as other countries make good on their promises to decarbonise.</p>
<p>The technology we need to reach 100 megatonnes of emissions is already available at low cost from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119678">vast production runs</a>: solar, wind, energy storage (via <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/abeb5b">pumped hydro</a> and batteries), transmission cables, electric vehicles, heat pumps and electric furnaces. Continued research and development will make these costs even lower. </p>
<h2>So what’s left over to get to net-zero?</h2>
<p>Remaining emissions come from aviation, shipping, industry (cement, chemicals, metals), land clearing and agriculture. These sectors need plenty of research and industrial development to decarbonise, but we have time to do this over the next decade if we halve emissions by 2030.</p>
<p>Given Australia has plenty of land, good wind and much better solar than its rivals, it would be unconscionable for Australia to have a softer emissions target than the US, UK and EU at the Glasgow.</p>
<p>We don’t need new taxes, nor hydrogen, nor carbon capture and storage, nor a “gas-led recovery”. But we do need the federal government to either get involved or get out of the way.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-wars-carbon-taxes-and-toppled-leaders-the-30-year-history-of-australias-climate-response-in-brief-169545">Climate wars, carbon taxes and toppled leaders: the 30-year history of Australia’s climate response, in brief</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169932/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from ARENA and similar organisation</span></em></p>Halving Australia’s 2030 target would see Australia become a valued and relevant party to negotiations at Glasgow, rather than a resented freeloader. Here’s how we could get there.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1645902021-07-21T20:12:35Z2021-07-21T20:12:35ZWind turbines off the coast could help Australia become an energy superpower, research finds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412326/original/file-20210721-23-1fyn92f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2995%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Offshore wind farms are an increasingly common sight overseas. But Australia has neglected the technology, despite the ample wind gusts buffeting much of our coastline.</p>
<p><a href="https://blueeconomycrc.com.au/projects/offshore-wind-potential-australia/">New research</a> released today confirms Australia’s offshore wind resources offer vast potential both for electricity generation and new jobs. In fact, wind conditions off southern Australia rival those in the North Sea, between Britain and Europe, where the offshore wind industry is well established. </p>
<p>More than ten offshore wind farms are currently proposed for Australia. If built, their combined capacity would be <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/generation-capacity-and-output-by-fuel-source-nem">greater than</a> all coal-fired power plants in the nation.</p>
<p>Offshore wind projects can provide a win-win-win for Australia: creating jobs for displaced fossil fuel workers, replacing energy supplies lost when coal plants close, and helping Australia become a renewable energy superpower.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="offshore wind turbine from above" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412324/original/file-20210721-27-jup4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412324/original/file-20210721-27-jup4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412324/original/file-20210721-27-jup4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412324/original/file-20210721-27-jup4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412324/original/file-20210721-27-jup4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412324/original/file-20210721-27-jup4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412324/original/file-20210721-27-jup4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s potential for offshore wind rivals the North Sea’s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The time is now</h2>
<p>Globally, offshore wind is booming. The United Kingdom plans to quadruple offshore wind capacity to 40 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/06/powering-all-uk-homes-via-offshore-wind-by-2030-would-cost-50bn">enough</a> to power every home in the nation. Other jurisdictions also have ambitious 2030 offshore wind targets including the European Union (60GW), the United States (30GW), South Korea (12GW) and Japan (10GW).</p>
<p>Australia’s coastal waters are relatively deep, which limits the scope to fix offshore wind turbines to the bottom of the ocean. This, combined with Australia’s ample onshore wind and solar energy resources, means offshore wind has been overlooked in Australia’s <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp">energy system planning</a>. </p>
<p>But recent changes are producing new opportunities for Australia. The development of <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/giant-offshore-turbines-set-to-drive-plummeting-cost-of-wind-power/">larger turbines</a> has created economies of scale which reduce technology costs. And floating turbine foundations, which can operate in very deep waters, open access to more windy offshore locations.</p>
<p>More than ten offshore wind projects are proposed in Australia. Star of the South, to be built off Gippsland in Victoria, is the most advanced. Others include those off <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-01/companies-look-to-build-wind-energy-projects-off-wa-coast/100108572">Western Australia</a>, <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/two-massive-offshore-wind-farms-proposed-for-bass-strait/">Tasmania</a> and <a href="https://australis-energy.com/projects">Victoria</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="floating wind turbine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412329/original/file-20210721-15-7wy8ng.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412329/original/file-20210721-15-7wy8ng.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412329/original/file-20210721-15-7wy8ng.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412329/original/file-20210721-15-7wy8ng.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412329/original/file-20210721-15-7wy8ng.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412329/original/file-20210721-15-7wy8ng.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412329/original/file-20210721-15-7wy8ng.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Floating wind turbines can operate in deep waters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">SAITEC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Our findings</h2>
<p>Our study sought to examine the potential of offshore wind energy for Australia.</p>
<p>First, we examined locations considered feasible for offshore wind projects, namely those that were:</p>
<ul>
<li>less than 100km from shore</li>
<li>within 100km of substations and transmission lines (excluding environmentally restricted areas)</li>
<li>in water depths less than 1,000 metres.</li>
</ul>
<p>Wind resources at those locations totalled 2,233GW of capacity and would generate far more than current and projected electricity demand across Australia. </p>
<p>Second, we looked at so-called “capacity factor” – the ratio between the energy an offshore wind turbine would generate with the winds available at a location, relative to the turbine’s potential maximum output.</p>
<p>The best sites were south of Tasmania, with a capacity factor of 80%. The next-best sites were in Bass Strait and off Western Australia and North Queensland (55%), followed by South Australia and New South Wales (45%). By comparison, the capacity factor of <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/resources/other-renewable-energy-resources/wind-energy">onshore wind turbines</a> is generally 35–45%. </p>
<p>Average annual wind speeds in Bass Strait, around Tasmania and along the mainland’s southwest coast equal those in the North Sea, where offshore wind is an established industry. Wind conditions in southern Australia are also more favourable than in the East China and Yellow seas, which are growth regions for commercial wind farms. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map showing average wind speed" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412327/original/file-20210721-25-bn6tbn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412327/original/file-20210721-25-bn6tbn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412327/original/file-20210721-25-bn6tbn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412327/original/file-20210721-25-bn6tbn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412327/original/file-20210721-25-bn6tbn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412327/original/file-20210721-25-bn6tbn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412327/original/file-20210721-25-bn6tbn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Average wind speed (metres per second) from 2010-2019 in the study area at 100 metres.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Next, we compared offshore wind resources on an hourly basis against the output of onshore solar and wind farms at 12 locations around Australia. </p>
<p>At most sites, offshore wind continued to operate at high capacity during periods when onshore wind and solar generation output was low. For example, meteorological data shows offshore wind at the Star of the South location is particularly strong on hot days when energy demand is high. </p>
<p>Australia’s fleet of coal-fired power plants is ageing, and the exact date each facility will retire is uncertain. This creates risks of disruption to energy supplies, however offshore wind power could help mitigate this. A single offshore wind project can be up to five times the size of an onshore wind project.</p>
<p>Some of the best sites for offshore winds are located near the Latrobe Valley in Victoria and the Hunter Valley in NSW. Those regions boast strong electricity grid infrastructure built around coal plants, and offshore wind projects could plug into this via undersea cables. </p>
<p>And building wind energy offshore can also avoid the planning conflicts and community opposition which sometimes affect onshore renewables developments.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Global average wind speed" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412328/original/file-20210721-17-1rkxy2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412328/original/file-20210721-17-1rkxy2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412328/original/file-20210721-17-1rkxy2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412328/original/file-20210721-17-1rkxy2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412328/original/file-20210721-17-1rkxy2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412328/original/file-20210721-17-1rkxy2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412328/original/file-20210721-17-1rkxy2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global average wind speed (metres per second at 100m level.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-need-land-and-lots-of-it-that-poses-tricky-questions-for-regional-australia-156031">Renewables need land – and lots of it. That poses tricky questions for regional Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Winds of change</h2>
<p>Our research found offshore wind could help Australia become a renewable energy “superpower”. As Australia seeks to reduce its greenhouse has emissions, sectors such as transport will need increased supplies of renewable energy. Clean energy will also be needed to produce hydrogen for export and to manufacture “green” steel and aluminium.</p>
<p>Offshore wind can also support a “<a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just-transition.pdf">just transition</a>” – in other words, ensure fossil fuel workers and their communities are not left behind in the shift to a low-carbon economy.</p>
<p>Our research found offshore wind could produce around 8,000 jobs under the scenario used in our study – almost as many as those employed in Australia’s offshore oil and gas sector. </p>
<p>Many skills used in the oil and gas industry, such as those in construction, safety and mechanics, overlap with those needed in offshore wind energy. Coal workers could also be re-employed in offshore wind manufacturing, port assembly and engineering. </p>
<p>Realising these opportunities from offshore wind will take time and proactive policy and planning. Our report includes ten recommendations, including:</p>
<ul>
<li>establishing a regulatory regime in Commonwealth waters</li>
<li>integrating offshore wind into energy planning and innovation funding</li>
<li>further research on the cost-benefits of the sector to ensure Australia meets its commitments to a well managed <a href="https://www.oceanpanel.org/">sustainable ocean economy</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>If we get this right, offshore wind can play a crucial role in Australia’s energy transition.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/super-charged-how-australias-biggest-renewables-project-will-change-the-energy-game-148348">Super-charged: how Australia's biggest renewables project will change the energy game</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164590/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sven Teske receives funding from the Blue Economy CRC. Penny Howard of the Maritime Union of Australia contributed to the research presented in this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology received funding from the Blue Economy CRC and the Australian Council of Trade Unions, Maritime Union of Australia, Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and Electrical Trades Union for the study on offshore wind.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Hemer works for CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, and is a research program leader for the Blue Economy Co-operative Research Centre. Funding for this work came from the Blue Economy CRC, CSIRO, Saitec Offshore, the Australian Council of Trade Unions, Maritime Union of Australia, Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and Electrical Trades Union. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Philip Marsh receives funding from the Blue Economy CRC, CSIRO, Saitec Offshore, the Australian Council of Trade Unions, Maritime Union of Australia, Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and Electrical Trades Union.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Blue Economy CRC and the Australian Council of Trade Unions, Maritime Union of Australia, Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and Electrical Trades Union for the study on offshore wind.</span></em></p>More than ten offshore wind farms are currently proposed for Australia. If built, their combined capacity would be greater than all coal-fired power plants in the nation.Sven Teske, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyChris Briggs, Research Principal, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyMark Hemer, Principal Research Scientist, Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIROPhilip Marsh, Post doctoral researcher, University of TasmaniaRusty Langdon, Research Consultant, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1586072021-04-28T12:14:10Z2021-04-28T12:14:10ZWind farms bring windfalls for rural schools, but school finance laws limit how money is spent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397398/original/file-20210427-17-o4pal0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C13%2C4467%2C3360&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Texas has collected and spent more money on wind energy than any other state. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/daxis/34747221193/">Daxis/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the website for the local school district in Blackwell – a town of just over 300 people in rural Texas – school Superintendent Abe Gott says: “<a href="https://www.blackwellhornets.org/about/superintendents_message.jsp">We believe that no matter your dreams, you can achieve them from Blackwell, Texas.</a>”</p>
<p>To back that up, the Blackwell Consolidated Independent School District provides a <a href="https://www.blackwellhornets.org/apps/pages/index.jsp?uREC_ID=82661&type=d&pREC_ID=288568">postsecondary scholarship of up to US$36,000</a> for graduates from the district’s single high school. So far 140 students have benefited from scholarships, according to Gott. </p>
<p>The money that makes this possible came from a $35 million deal the school district brokered with a wind farm company in 2005, part of the <a href="https://www.citizen.org/wp-content/uploads/nolan_county_case_study_070908_0.pdf">massive growth of that sector</a> in Nolan County and Texas.</p>
<p>The spread of wind energy in rural America has been a financial boon to school districts such as the one in Blackwell. However, because of the complexity of how schools are financed, <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/school-district-revenue-shocks">the impact on student achievement is limited</a>, according to a new study that we conducted as researchers in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1S2bLkcAAAAJ&hl=en">public finance</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=71IQR0IAAAAJ">education economics</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=IMWAynMAAAAJ">energy policy</a>.</p>
<h2>Windfall of wind taxes</h2>
<p>Nolan County – one of three counties served by the school district – is home to <a href="https://eerscmap.usgs.gov/uswtdb/viewer/#10.17/32.2543/-100.3605">1,371 wind turbines</a> that generate a maximum of 2,097 megawatts, or enough to power half a million Texas homes per year. That includes the 585-megawatt <a href="https://www.duke-energy.com/our-company/about-us/businesses/renewable-energy/wind-energy/sweetwater-windpower">Sweetwater Wind Farm</a> and the 735-megawatt <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horse_Hollow_Wind_Energy_Center">Horse Hollow project</a>, which was the largest in the world when it came online in 2006.</p>
<p>Over the past 25 years wind energy has blossomed in the United States, rising from less than 2 gigawatts of capacity in 1995 to <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-technologies-market-report/">over 110 GW last year</a>, enough to meet more than 7% of the entire nation’s electricity supply. It provides more than 10% of supply in 14 states, and more than 40% in two of those states — Iowa and Kansas.</p>
<p>By 2020, there were over 1,600 commercial wind installations made up of almost <a href="https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57bdfd8fe4b03fd6b7df5ff9">68,000 individual turbines</a>. The industry is continuing to grow rapidly, with <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/news/halfway-zero-progress-towards-carbon-free">another 200 gigawatts</a> of projects applying for grid connections as of the end of 2020.</p>
<p>With all this rural development come property tax revenues. Wind projects paid an estimated <a href="https://cleanpower.org/news/wind-powers-america-annual-report/">$1.6 billion in property tax revenues</a> to states and local jurisdictions in 2019.</p>
<p>That is no doubt welcome revenue for school districts in rural areas, which sometimes <a href="https://ednote.ecs.org/how-states-allocate-funding-for-rural-schools/">struggle to generate local tax revenue</a>. But as researchers we wanted to know: How are school districts using wind farm revenues? And is this money helping boost student achievement?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="High school students and their teacher both wear masks in a classroom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397163/original/file-20210426-19-1g8ktu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397163/original/file-20210426-19-1g8ktu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397163/original/file-20210426-19-1g8ktu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397163/original/file-20210426-19-1g8ktu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397163/original/file-20210426-19-1g8ktu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397163/original/file-20210426-19-1g8ktu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397163/original/file-20210426-19-1g8ktu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Revenue from wind turbines can allow for schools to hire more teachers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/high-school-teacher-and-students-in-classroom-royalty-free-image/1264961021?adppopup=true">RichLegg/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To find out, we collected data on new U.S. wind installations from 1995 through 2017 and tax revenue trends in school districts. We then checked to see if new wind farms led to significant changes in school budgets and how school districts spent their money, such as on things like new buildings, hiring more teachers to reduce class sizes, or boosting teacher salaries.</p>
<p>We found that <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/school-district-revenue-shocks">wind energy installations led to large increases in local revenues to school districts</a>. Schools dramatically increased spending on capital outlays, such as buildings and equipment, but made only modest increases to their operating budgets, like hiring more teachers to reduce class size. </p>
<h2>When priorities and policies collide</h2>
<p>Numerous studies have shown that smaller class sizes result in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-of-a-difference-does-the-number-of-kids-in-a-classroom-make-125703">better student achievement</a>. So why are districts putting new tax revenues into capital spending rather than class size reduction?</p>
<p>We think it is due to state school finance formulas and state- and county-level tax laws, and the incentives they provide to school administrators.</p>
<p>As wind grew it expanded from only 16 school districts in 1995 to 900 districts <a href="https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/brunner_hoen_hyman_2_3_21_working_paper.pdf">spread across 38 states</a> in 2016. Leading the pack are rural areas of the West, the Midwest and Texas.</p>
<p>The amount of tax revenue a school district gets from a wind energy installation depends on state and local laws and how those laws interact with state school finance formulas. </p>
<p>States use a wide variety of approaches to tax wind farms, ranging from normal property tax treatment to full exemptions. Sometimes wind farms make “payments in lieu of taxes,” known as PILOTs.</p>
<p>Kansas, for example, exempts wind projects from property taxes for the first 10 years. Some wind companies make PILOT payments to hosting counties, but individual school districts are often left out of those deals. Wyoming has a centralized system of school finance, so any revenue generated from wind projects is captured entirely by the state and redistributed to schools following a formula.</p>
<p>Texas, the <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-energy-growth">No. 1 wind energy state</a>, has a complicated system of local taxation of wind farms. Because of the state’s school finance system, much of the additional property tax revenue generated by wind installations can be captured by the state. </p>
<p>Texas uses a formula to take money from school districts with high property tax revenues per pupil and give it to poorer districts.</p>
<p>But that does not apply to local property tax revenue dedicated to paying off debt in Texas. So school districts have a strong incentive to borrow money by selling bonds to pay for capital improvements, then use revenues from the wind farms to pay off the bonds.</p>
<p>As a result, school districts in Texas tend to put wind tax revenues into buildings and facilities, rather than into teachers and operations. For example, the Blackwell school district, in addition to its scholarship fund, has spent $15 million for a new football stadium and academic complex.</p>
<h2>Impact on school finances</h2>
<p>The growth in wind energy development over time and across the country provides an ideal setting to examine how wind energy – or really any outside boost in funding – can impact school district finances and, in turn, student performance.</p>
<p>Our sample included 638 school districts that had a wind energy installation at some point between 1995 and 2017. Not surprisingly, these “wind districts” tend to be smaller and more rural than the average school district. </p>
<p><iframe id="g0wGE" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/g0wGE/9/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We found that new wind farms result in large increases in the amount of local revenue that is brought in per student, with only small reductions in state aid. We also found large boosts in per-pupil expenditures. Texas, especially, collected and spent more than other states.</p>
<p><iframe id="IDbea" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IDbea/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>But we found that most of those new expenditures were used for building improvements or new facilities rather than operating or “current” expenses. District spending on buildings went up by as much as 73%, while operating expenditures increased only slightly, by about 2%.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397154/original/file-20210426-21-1jbp8mp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A local school undergoes construction." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397154/original/file-20210426-21-1jbp8mp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397154/original/file-20210426-21-1jbp8mp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397154/original/file-20210426-21-1jbp8mp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397154/original/file-20210426-21-1jbp8mp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397154/original/file-20210426-21-1jbp8mp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397154/original/file-20210426-21-1jbp8mp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397154/original/file-20210426-21-1jbp8mp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Schools are more likely to use new wind revenues to build up their infrastructure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/overall-shows-a-2-story-building-under-construction-at-news-photo/1229426574?adppopup=true">Mel Melcon/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Formulas at play</h2>
<p>This allocation of funds seems to be driven in part by the formulas that states use to provide aid to local school districts. States typically reduce the amount of funds they send to a district that sees an increase in local tax revenues, in order to equalize spending.</p>
<p>In some cases, though, that applies only when a district spends more on day-to-day operations, not when it boosts building improvements or new construction. So to avoid losing state aid, districts are more likely to use any new local revenues from wind farms for new buildings or repairs than for operating expenses. </p>
<p>This is exactly what we saw in our study. While school facilities and equipment no doubt improved, new wind farm revenues resulted in little to no change in class sizes or teacher salaries. In line with past research that shows better lower student-to-teacher ratios are <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-of-a-difference-does-the-number-of-kids-in-a-classroom-make-125703">clearly connected to student achievement</a>, we found little change in student outcomes.</p>
<p>So while new development from wind energy can significantly boost rural economies and tax revenues, decisions on how the money is used are still made within the constraints of local school finance policy and law.</p>
<p>[<em>Get our best science, health and technology stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-best">Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158607/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Brunner received funding from the the Wind Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231 to support this research project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Hoen receives funding from the Wind Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Hyman received funding from the the Wind Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231 to support this research project.</span></em></p>Despite a growth in revenue from wind farms, many rural school districts are being nudged by policy and law to spend the money on buildings and not instruction.Eric Brunner, Professor of Economics and Policy, University of ConnecticutBen Hoen, Research Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryJoshua Hyman, Assistant Professor of economics, Amherst CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1483482020-10-27T02:36:10Z2020-10-27T02:36:10ZSuper-charged: how Australia’s biggest renewables project will change the energy game<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365437/original/file-20201026-21-sba7oi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C0%2C4986%2C2948&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia doesn’t yet export renewable energy. But the writing is on the wall: demand for Australia’s fossil fuel exports is likely to <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">dwindle</a> <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3105693/china-australia-relations-canberra-keeping-door-open">soon</a>, and we must replace it at massive scale.</p>
<p>The proposed Asian Renewable Energy Hub (<a href="https://asianrehub.com">AREH</a>) will be a huge step forward. It would eventually comprise 26,000 megawatts (MW) of wind and solar energy, generated in Western Australia’s Pilbara region. Once complete, it would be Australia’s biggest renewable energy development, and potentially the <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/karenandrews/media-releases/job-creating-energy-hub-given-major-status-backing">largest</a> of its type in the world. </p>
<p>Late last week, the federal government <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/huge-50bn-pilbara-green-hydrogen-hub-granted-major-project-status-17416/">granted</a> AREH “major project” status, meaning it will be fast-tracked through the approvals process. And in another significant step, the WA government this month <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/massive-asian-renewable-energy-hub-grows-to-26gw-of-wind-and-solar-49343/">gave</a> environmental approval for the project’s first stage.</p>
<p>The mega-venture still faces sizeable challenges. But it promises to be a game-changer for Australia’s lucrative energy export business and will reshape the local renewables sector. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map showing proposed location of the Asian Renewable Energy Hub." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365444/original/file-20201026-21-wgxgza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365444/original/file-20201026-21-wgxgza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365444/original/file-20201026-21-wgxgza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365444/original/file-20201026-21-wgxgza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365444/original/file-20201026-21-wgxgza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365444/original/file-20201026-21-wgxgza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365444/original/file-20201026-21-wgxgza.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map showing proposed location of the Asian Renewable Energy Hub.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AREH</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Writing on the wall</h2>
<p>Australia’s coal and gas exports have been growing for decades, and in 2019-20 reached almost <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/australia-mining-idUSL3N26L0OI">A$110 billion</a>. Much of this energy has fuelled Asia’s rapid growth. However, in recent weeks, two of Australia’s largest Asian energy markets announced big moves away from fossil fuels.</p>
<p>China <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">adopted a target</a> of net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2060. Japan will <a href="https://theconversation.com/japan-is-closing-its-old-dirty-power-plants-and-thats-bad-news-for-australias-coal-exports-144452">retire</a> its fleet of old coal-fired generation by 2030, and will <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/japan-net-zero-2050-emissions-climate-crisis-prime-minister-yoshihide-suga-b1251563.html">introduce</a> legally binding targets to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. </p>
<p>There are signs other Asian nations are also moving. Singapore has <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/singapore/">weak climate targets</a>, but on Monday <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/australia-and-singapore-work-together-accelerate-low-emissions">inked a deal</a> with Australia to cooperate on low-emissions technologies. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Night scene in Japan" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365447/original/file-20201026-19-fnu1u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365447/original/file-20201026-19-fnu1u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365447/original/file-20201026-19-fnu1u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365447/original/file-20201026-19-fnu1u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365447/original/file-20201026-19-fnu1u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365447/original/file-20201026-19-fnu1u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365447/original/file-20201026-19-fnu1u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Japan wants to decarbonise its economy by using hydrogen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Export evolution</h2>
<p>The Asian Renewable Energy Hub (AREH) would be built across 6,500 square kilometres in the East Pilbara. The first stage involves a 10,000MW wind farm plus 5,000MW of solar generation – which the federal government <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/karenandrews/media-releases/job-creating-energy-hub-given-major-status-backing">says</a> would make it the world’s largest wind and solar electricity plant. </p>
<p>The first stage would be capable of generating <a href="https://asianrehub.com/">100 terawatt-hours</a> of renewable electricity each year. That equates to about 40% of Australia’s total electricity generation <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html">in 2019</a>. AREH recently expanded its longer term plans to 26,000MW. </p>
<p>The project is backed by a consortium of global renewables developers. Most energy from AREH will be used to produce <a href="https://asianrehub.com">green hydrogen</a> and ammonia to be used both domestically, and for shipping to export markets. Some energy from AREH will also be exported as electricity, carried by an undersea electrical cable. </p>
<p>Another Australian project is also seeking to export renewable power to Asia. The 10-gigawatt <a href="https://www.suncable.sg/">Sun Cable project</a>, backed by tech entrepreneur Mike Cannon-Brookes, involves a solar farm across 15,000 hectares near Tennant Creek, in the Northern Territory. Power generated will supply Darwin and be exported to Singapore via a 3,800km electrical cable along the sea floor.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-might-sound-batshit-insane-but-australia-could-soon-export-sunshine-to-asia-via-a-3-800km-cable-127612">It might sound 'batshit insane' but Australia could soon export sunshine to Asia via a 3,800km cable</a>
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<p>The export markets for both AREH and Sun Cable are there. For example, both South Korea and Japan have indicated strong interest in Australia’s green hydrogen to decarbonise their economies and secure energy supplies. </p>
<p>But we should not underestimate the obstacles standing in the way of the projects. Both will require massive investment. Sun Cable, for example, will cost an estimated <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/some-crazy-folks-behind-mike-cannon-brookes-20b-sun-cable-project-22944">A$20 billion</a> to build. The Asian Renewable Energy Hub will reportedly require as much as <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/huge-50bn-pilbara-green-hydrogen-hub-granted-major-project-status-17416/">A$50 billion.</a></p>
<p>The projects are also at the cutting edge of technology, in terms of the assembly of the solar array, the wind turbines and batteries. Transport of hydrogen <a href="https://hydrogenenergysupplychain.com/supply-chain/">by ship</a> is still at the pilot stage, and commercially unproven. And the projects must navigate complex approvals and regulatory processes, in both Australia and Asia. </p>
<p>But the projects have good strategic leadership, and a clear mission to put Australian green energy exports on the map. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Red sand and tussocks of grass" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s Pilbara region would be home to Australia’s biggest renewables development.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shifting winds</h2>
<p>Together, the AREH and Sun Cable projects do not yet make a trend. But they clearly indicate a shift in mindset on the part of investors. </p>
<p>The projects promise enormous clean development opportunities for Australia’s north, and will create thousands of jobs in Australia – especially in high-tech manufacturing. As we look to rebuild the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, such stimulus will be key. All up, AREH is <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/karenandrews/media-releases/job-creating-energy-hub-given-major-status-backing">expected to support</a> more than 20,000 jobs during a decade of construction, and 3,000 jobs when fully operating. </p>
<p>To make smart policies and investments, the federal government must have a clear view of the future global economy. Patterns of energy consumption in Asia are shifting away from fossil fuels, and Australia’s exports must move with them.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">China just stunned the world with its step-up on climate action – and the implications for Australia may be huge</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148348/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Mathews receives funding from he Australian Research Council for research on the clean energy transition in Asia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Thurbon currently receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and the Academy of Korean Studies. She has previously received funding from the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia and the Korea Foundation. She is an elected member of the Executive Council of the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics (SASE) and a Research Committee and Board member of the Jubilee Australia Research Centre (JARC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hao Tan receives funding from the Australia Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project 2019-2021. He previously received funding from the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, and funding from the Confucius Institute Headquarters under the "Understanding China Fellowship" in 2017.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sung-Young Kim receives funding from the Australia Research Council (ARC) and has previously received funding from the Academy of Korean Studies (AKS). He is Chair of the Organising Committee for the 2021 Australian Political Studies Association (APSA) Annual Conference and is Treasurer of the Korean Studies Association of Australasia (KSAA).</span></em></p>Many Asian nations are shunning fossil fuels, presenting a huge opportunity for Australia’s renewables sector. And one massive project has stepped up to the plate.John Mathews, Professor Emeritus, Macquarie Business School, Macquarie UniversityElizabeth Thurbon, Scientia Associate Professor in International Relations / International Political Economy, UNSW SydneyHao Tan, Associate professor, University of NewcastleSung-Young Kim, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Discipline of Politics & International Relations, Macquarie School of Social Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1446752020-08-23T20:04:59Z2020-08-23T20:04:59ZForest Wind and Australia’s renewables revolution: how big clean energy projects risk leaving local communities behind<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354010/original/file-20200821-22-mefr5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C45%2C5000%2C3293&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On top of announcing <a href="https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/90495">three Renewable Energy Zones</a> this week the Queensland Parliament <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/massive-1200mw-forest-wind-project-gets-vital-boost-from-state-legislation-15082/">paved the way </a> for an exclusive deal to build one of the biggest onshore wind farms in the Southern Hemisphere.</p>
<p>With up to 226 wind turbines in state-owned pine plantations, the 1,200 megawatt Forest Wind project could power <a href="https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/90415/">one in four Queensland homes</a> and help the state meet its target of 50% renewable-generated electricity by 2030. </p>
<p>The turbines will be a minimum of three kilometres from the nearest town. Because they’re sited in an exotic pine plantation, impacts on native flora, fauna, and habitats will be minimised. At first sight, Forest Wind looks like a model project. But look a little closer, and Forest Wind embodies many of the contradictions at the heart of Australia’s renewable energy revolution. </p>
<p>The current pace of Australia’s energy transition is breathtaking. But big projects like Forest Wind need to take local communities with them, and build a social licence for the energy transition from the ground up. </p>
<h2>A community ‘kept in the dark’</h2>
<p>As our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780128195154/the-role-of-public-participation-in-energy-transitions">research in the German state of Brandenburg shows</a>, building towers 160 metres high – that’s higher than the Sydney Harbour Bridge – anywhere near settlements tends to lead to community opposition and lengthy delays. </p>
<p>Affected communities are much more likely to accept a massive wind farm on their doorstep if they feel they’ve been listened to by project developers, and can see clear benefits.</p>
<p>The three-kilometre “exclusion zone” for Forest Wind is twice the 1,500 metre minimum distance from settlements required under Queensland law. And project developers argue its location amid dense pine trees will provide “<a href="https://www.forestwind.com.au/project-overview">a natural buffer between Forest Wind and local residences</a>”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353884/original/file-20200820-24-1lzu58u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Wind turbines with red tips" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353884/original/file-20200820-24-1lzu58u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353884/original/file-20200820-24-1lzu58u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353884/original/file-20200820-24-1lzu58u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353884/original/file-20200820-24-1lzu58u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353884/original/file-20200820-24-1lzu58u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353884/original/file-20200820-24-1lzu58u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353884/original/file-20200820-24-1lzu58u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Wind turbines near Rosenthal Brandenburg. Our research in Germany found building wind farms near towns causes opposition and delays.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lothar Michael Peter</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>But local residents told <a href="https://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/Committees/SDTIMC/2020/ForestWindFarmDB20/trns-ph-15Jun2020.pdf#search=%22forest%20wind%20farm%22">a parliamentary committee</a> in June they’d been kept in the dark about the project, claiming “it was kept secret from 2016 until the public announcement in December 2019”. They also expressed concern about its visual impact and proximity to bird migration corridors. </p>
<p>The developers and the state government seem to have followed the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09644010500175833?casa_token=ZiPoOJf_JX0AAAAA%3AORdIYQchVEKxUF12BV7QqrSn5bq8n7AmhR2891RkNrQwBXqU8AwEnu6jVoQSYaWP4pwabQG1mzhr3g&">well-known and widely criticised</a> “DAD” approach: Decide, Announce, Defend.</p>
<p>“DAD” may be common in current planning processes, but the people of the nearby Wide Bay community may feel that, so far, there’s not enough in it for them. </p>
<p>The Conversation contacted Forest Wind Holdings for a response to this article. A spokesperson said the project will provide the local community a long and ongoing opportunity to continually provide input. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Forest Wind is pleased to have received feedback from hundreds of people so far including at information days, online forums, letters and over the phone. […] Since the project’s announcement, COVID-19 has certainly impacted community consultation activities, as local halls have been closed and a planned wind farm tour has had to be cancelled.</p>
<p>Now that COVID-19 restrictions are easing, Forest Wind is establishing a Community Reference Group […] Forest Wind intends to work closely through the Community Reference Group to continue to understand the needs and interests of the local community and work in a collaborative and multi-stakeholder approach to address community concerns and develop initiatives that leverage the Project and deliver community benefits.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Few community benefits</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.forestwind.com.au/community">Forest Wind website</a> lists no concrete community benefits, no benefit sharing programs, concrete training or education initiatives, and hardly any community engagement besides standard consultation meetings and newsletters. </p>
<p>Elsewhere it’s becoming common for government-led renewable energy auctions to stipulate <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Dec/Renewable-energy-auctions-Status-and-trends-beyond-price">socio-economic objectives</a> other than just capacity or price. <a href="https://environmentvictoria.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/EV_Renewable-Boom_VRET_Desktop.pdf">In Victoria</a>, one preference was to use labour and components from the state. In the ACT, one outcome was wider benefit sharing in the form of <a href="https://www.sapphirewindfarm.com.au/community-investment/">community co-investment</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-are-we-doomed-if-we-dont-manage-to-curb-emissions-by-2030-143526">Climate explained: are we doomed if we don't manage to curb emissions by 2030?</a>
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<p>The Queensland government has fast-tracked Forest Wind through its <a href="https://www.statedevelopment.qld.gov.au/industry/investment-facilitation/exclusive-transactions.html">Exclusive Transactions Framework</a>, which gives preferential treatment to large-scale infrastructure projects. In other words, it’s picked a winner.</p>
<p>Forest Wind Holdings did not have to go through a competitive tender or auction process. Given the sheer size of the project, the state government had plenty of scope to negotiate better-than-average <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/advocacy-initiatives/community-engagement/guide-to-benefit-sharing-options-for-renewable-energy-projects.pdf">benefits</a> for Wide Bay and the state.</p>
<p>Then there’s a further issue: jobs. According to the project website, 50% of the jobs in the construction phase (around 200) and 90% during operations (about 50) can be filled by people in the Wide Bay region. </p>
<p>A Forest Wind spokesperson said there are “vast benefits” for the local people in Wide Bay, including job opportunities in the concrete and construction sector. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>These are all real jobs, for which on-the-job training and on-the-job management and mentoring can benefit workers to skill-up in working on Forest Wind, on future wind farms, and increase the opportunity to apply skills and qualifications in other areas of the economy.</p>
<p>Forest Wind was originated by local Queenslanders and the development team are based in this local area of Queensland. Already there are real local jobs, with more local jobs to come as the project develops – this is a positive.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But local communities need to see more <a href="https://theconversation.com/people-need-to-see-the-benefits-from-local-renewable-energy-projects-and-that-means-jobs-138433">lasting job creation</a> from big renewable projects, not just “the circus coming to town”. </p>
<h2>Consulting with native title holders</h2>
<p>One clearly innovative aspect of Forest Wind is the requirement for an Indigenous Land Use Agreement, which provides negotiation rights for titleholders and compensation. Under <a href="https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/view/html/bill.first/bill-2019-006/lh">legislation passed this week</a>, the developer must negotiate a land use agreement where native title exists, and “the project cannot proceed without the free and informed consent of these individuals and communities”.</p>
<p>Part of Forest Wind is located on native title lands held by the Butchulla People, whose <a href="https://aiatsis.gov.au/ntpd-resource/30247">native title is well-established</a>. Another part is on the land of the Kabi Kabi people, whose <a href="http://www.nntt.gov.au/searchRegApps/NativeTitleClaims/Pages/details.aspx?NTDA_Fileno=QC2013/003">native title claim is pending</a>. Forest Wind states it is <a href="https://www.forestwind.com.au/first-nations-people">consulting with native title holders </a> and looks forward to partnerships with them.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-aboriginal-people-have-little-say-over-energy-projects-on-their-land-139119">Why Aboriginal people have little say over energy projects on their land</a>
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<p>In contrast, last year the Queensland government <a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-people-no-longer-have-the-legal-right-to-say-no-to-the-adani-mine-heres-what-it-means-for-equality-122788">extinguished native title</a> over land in the Galilee Basin to make way for the Adani coal mine. </p>
<p>And the Adani mine is now only expected to offer only <a href="https://medium.com/@TheAustraliaInstitute/explained-adanis-continuously-changing-jobs-figures-e2a67baac540">100</a> to <a href="https://abix.com.au/2019/06/04/adani-downsizes-cuts-new-job-numbers-to-as-low-as-800/">800</a> ongoing jobs. </p>
<p>So let’s be clear: we should applaud Queensland’s decision to throw its weight behind the energy transition.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.solarcitizens.org.au/queensland_renewable_recovery_plan">recent report</a> estimates that, with the right stimulus measures now, by 2030 there could be 13,000 Queenslanders working long-term in the renewable sector, and tens of thousands more short term jobs in construction. </p>
<p>Some 75% of those jobs would be in regional Queensland. The challenge is to ensure enough of them go to regions like Wide Bay.</p>
<p>And at a national level, Australia should look to Germany as a model. </p>
<h2>Community energy projects</h2>
<p>Renewables now employ <a href="https://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/EE/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/zeitreihe-der-beschaeftigungszahlen-seit-2000.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3">304,000</a> people in Germany. That compares with about <a href="https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/A/abschlussbericht-kommission-wachstum-strukturwandel-und-beschaeftigung.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4">60,000</a> in the coal industry. </p>
<p>Germany built its energy transition over 30 years. The German experience shows how fostering citizen involvement and ownership will strengthen long-term social acceptance for renewable energy. </p>
<p>This means encouraging community energy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-small-german-town-took-back-the-power-and-went-fully-renewable-126294#:%7E:text=For%20future%20projects%2C%20citizens%20and,table%20from%20the%20very%20beginning.&text=Formed%20in%202012%20by%20citizens,25%25%20of%20the%20energy%20company.">energy cooperatives</a>, <a href="https://enovaenergy.com.au/about-us/our-story/">community owned retailers</a> or <a href="https://www.nweurope.eu/projects/project-search/cvpp-community-based-virtual-power-plant/">community-based Virtual Power Plants</a>. Community energy projects are estimated to have <a href="http://staging.community-wealth.org/sites/clone.community-wealth.org/files/downloads/paper-lantz-tegen.pdf">higher employment impacts</a> and can better prioritise local contractors than corporate-led projects. </p>
<p>A greater focus on energy democracy would build a stronger foundation for the energy transition Australia has to have.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/really-australia-its-not-that-hard-10-reasons-why-renewable-energy-is-the-future-130459">Really Australia, it's not that hard: 10 reasons why renewable energy is the future</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144675/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Morton receives funding from the Australian Research Council Discovery Project "Decarbonising Electricity: a Comparison in Socio-ecological Relations"</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Goodman receives funding from the Australian Research Council Discovery Project "Decarbonising Electricity: a Comparison in Socio-ecological Relations".</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katja Müller received ARC funding for 'The Coal Rush and Beyond' and 'Decarbonising Electricity'.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Riikka Heikkinen receives funding from UTS for her PhD. She has student memberships in the Australian Institute of Energy, Smart Energy Council and Australian Wind Alliance.</span></em></p>A clean energy transition is vital in Australia, but big projects like Forest Wind must take local communities with them.Tom Morton, Associate Professor, Journalism, Stream Leader, Climate Justice Research Centre, University of Technology SydneyJames Goodman, Professor in Political Sociology, University of Technology SydneyKatja Müller, Postdoctoral Researcher in Anthropology, Martin Luther University Halle-WittenbergRiikka Heikkinen, PhD Candidate, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1384332020-06-18T20:05:36Z2020-06-18T20:05:36ZPeople need to see the benefits from local renewable energy projects, and that means jobs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341753/original/file-20200615-65925-qdesrt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=395%2C745%2C4361%2C2242&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/holidaypointau/8022726021/">Holiday Point/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian government’s <a href="https://consult.industry.gov.au/climate-change/technology-investment-roadmap/supporting_documents/technologyinvestmentroadmapdiscussionpaper.pdf">investment roadmap</a> for low-emissions technologies promises <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/morrisons-lack-of-transparency-is-undermining-green-recovery-mps-say-41767/">more taxpayers’ money to the gas industry</a> but fails to deliver the policy needed for people to support a transition to renewable energy. </p>
<p>It ignores what <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/the-curious-case-of-taylor-s-technology-road-map-20200521-p54vaa">academic experts</a>, the <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP189502" title="GenCost 2018: Updated projections of electricity generation technology costs">CSIRO</a>, the <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/news/renewable-integration-study">Australian Energy Market Operator</a>, the <a href="https://cdn.aigroup.com.au/Speeches/2020/Address_Economic-Recovery-and-Energy-Transition-CEC_5May_2020.pdf">Australian Industry Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartenergy.org.au/stimulus-summit-renewablesled-economic-recovery">several premiers and energy ministers</a> are all saying: renewable sources of energy are <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-future-of-solar-power-from-unbelievably-cheap-to-insanely-cheap-77615/">already cheaper</a> than gas or coal generation, and wind and solar could provide <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/news/renewable-integration-study">up to 75% of Australia’s electricity by 2025</a>. </p>
<p>The technologies could also drive employment in a post-COVID renewables-led recovery, enabling Australia to “<a href="https://cdn.aigroup.com.au/Speeches/2020/Address_Economic-Recovery-and-Energy-Transition-CEC_5May_2020.pdf">rebuild stronger and cleaner</a>”.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-giants-want-to-thwart-reforms-that-would-help-renewables-and-lower-power-bills-140640">Energy giants want to thwart reforms that would help renewables and lower power bills</a>
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<p>But policymakers need to make sure the communities bearing the costs of the energy transition also share in its benefits.</p>
<h2>Get local people involved</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://decarbenergy.net/">research</a> on the social impacts of renewable energy shows a strong emphasis on sharing the benefits with the community and encouraging participation is essential for successful energy transitions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342609/original/file-20200618-41213-r2qg4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342609/original/file-20200618-41213-r2qg4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342609/original/file-20200618-41213-r2qg4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342609/original/file-20200618-41213-r2qg4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342609/original/file-20200618-41213-r2qg4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342609/original/file-20200618-41213-r2qg4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342609/original/file-20200618-41213-r2qg4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342609/original/file-20200618-41213-r2qg4y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Wind farms and other renewable energy developments could help drive a post-COVID recovery.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/indigoskies/6438065087">Flickr/Indigo Skies Photography</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>The bulk of well-paid, plentiful jobs in renewables come during <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2017/Jun/Renewable-Energy-Benefits-Leveraging-Local-Capacity-for-Onshore-Wind">manufacture and construction</a>, but who benefits from those jobs can be an issue.</p>
<p>Mortlake, in south-west Victoria, is home to two wind farms that won tenders under the state’s <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/renewable-energy/victorian-renewable-energy-auction-scheme">Renewable Energy Auction Scheme</a>.</p>
<p>The scheme is successful in making local content commitments, with regional supply chains and training in <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/vestas-wind-turbine-assembly-plant-opens-at-old-ford-factory-in-victoria-20839/">Geelong</a>, <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/wind-turbine-factory-brings-fresh-air-to-manufacturing-to-geelong">Ballarat</a> and <a href="https://www.cefc.com.au/media/63400/cefc-factsheet-pacifichydro_lr.pdf">Portland</a>. Local content in this context refers to the <a href="https://jobs.vic.gov.au/about-jobs-victoria/our-programs/major-projects-skills-guarantee">Victorian Major Projects Skills Guarantee</a> and the <a href="https://localjobsfirst.vic.gov.au/">Local Jobs First</a> policy. These government schemes are principally designed to encourage employment in Victoria.</p>
<p>While some construction workers have come from <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/local-industry-leading-the-charge-at-mortlake-south-wind-farm-38707/">nearby areas</a>, employment is mainly local to the state, not to people living in Mortlake. One of the locals described the experience to us as a “circus coming to town” – not jobs. </p>
<p>Commitments to Australian employment are a step in the right direction, but the term “local” should be used with caution. </p>
<p>The suppliers and tradespeople in a community earmarked for any renewable energy project may lack the specialist training and hence are less likely to get hired. Industry tendering processes still tend to favour large national or international contractors with established supply chains.</p>
<p>The wind industry in Mortlake has become a better listener to community concerns, partly due to lessons learnt from <a href="https://www.standard.net.au/story/5651589/huge-meeting-rejects-proposed-mount-fyans-wind-farm/">previous local opposition</a> to proposed wind farms. The emphasis now is on local benefits and engagement.</p>
<p>For example, one of the wind farm developers agreed to put the transmission line underground <a href="https://www.standard.net.au/story/5944640/mortlake-south-wind-farm-transmission-lines-will-be-installed-underground/">following council lobbying</a>. </p>
<h2>Don’t divide communities</h2>
<p>Renewable energy projects are often in direct competition with gas for the hearts and minds of communities.</p>
<p>Yet one <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/research-and-teaching/our-research/institute-sustainable-futures/news/renewable-energy-could-power-future-narrabri">study</a> found there are many more potential jobs in renewables than in gas in north-west New South Wales.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341760/original/file-20200615-65925-1ilmvm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341760/original/file-20200615-65925-1ilmvm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341760/original/file-20200615-65925-1ilmvm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341760/original/file-20200615-65925-1ilmvm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341760/original/file-20200615-65925-1ilmvm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341760/original/file-20200615-65925-1ilmvm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341760/original/file-20200615-65925-1ilmvm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar farms promise jobs, but who gets them?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/pietermorlion/7002498434/">Flickr/Pieter Morlion</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Narrabri is close to the NSW government’s <a href="https://energy.nsw.gov.au/renewables/renewable-energy-zones/">New England Renewable Energy Zone</a>. According to the <a href="https://altenergy.com.au/">AltEnergy database</a>, there have been proposals dating from 2018 for at least six solar farms in the region (three each in Narrabri and Gunnedah). </p>
<p>Together these would produce about 600 megawatts of electricity. Most of the projects have undertaken community consultation and secured planning approvals. Only Gunnedah South, which has secured a <a href="https://onestepoffthegrid.com.au/amazon-signs-first-australian-ppa-to-buy-output-from-nsw-gunnedah-solar-farm/">power supply contract with Amazon</a>, appears to be imminent, with <a href="https://www.ipcn.nsw.gov.au/projects/2018/11/gunnedah-solar-farm">150 locally sourced jobs</a> in the construction phase.</p>
<p>Locals we interviewed in Narrabri and Gunnedah in 2018 were sceptical that renewables could deliver lasting jobs. Clearly, there still needs to be evidence on the ground that the renewables industry can create local employment, whether directly or via related ventures and supply chains.</p>
<p>While few people knew of the numerous solar projects or could name the companies involved, everybody we spoke to knew of Santos and its proposal to drill the region for gas.</p>
<p>Santos <a href="https://narrabrigasproject.com.au/ask-us/">says</a> it will create “up to” 200 ongoing jobs from its operations. But this is <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/5402881/twice-as-many-jobs-if-narrabri-chooses-renewables-over-gas-report/">contested</a> and there are concerns about <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/low-confidence-expert-panel-raises-concerns-about-santos-coal-seam-gas-impacts-20170830-gy6wgc.html">impacts of gas drilling on water and on agriculture</a>.</p>
<p>Opposition to the gas project has been strong. In 2018 the <a href="https://gisera.csiro.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Social-7-Final-Report-correct.pdf">CSIRO found</a> no more than 43% of locals would “be OK with” the proposed gas operation.</p>
<p>Yet Santos has created a sophisticated operation to press its case. The gas giant has its own store in town and <a href="https://narrabricourier.com.au/2019/12/17/santos-donates-40000-to-help-drought-families/">donates money to local organisations</a>. As we found, its name is everywhere: on rugby jerseys, at the golf course, in the local newspaper. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZNM1MniuyN8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Santos in Narrabri.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Locals miss out on the benefits</h2>
<p>The real problem with getting acceptance of renewables lies in ownership and participation. If local communities miss out on economic benefits from corporate-owned renewables, their willingness to accept infrastructure, such as an ever-greater density of wind farms, declines.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/really-australia-its-not-that-hard-10-reasons-why-renewable-energy-is-the-future-130459">Really Australia, it's not that hard: 10 reasons why renewable energy is the future</a>
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<p>The clear lesson is that social legitimacy comes from local benefits. If people see little local benefit and have weak relationships with the energy companies, they are likely to focus on negatives such as disruption to views, ecology and land use.</p>
<p>Improving the quality and stability of jobs would be a good start. Supporting local ownership, making regulation more renewables-friendly and diversifying and democratising energy production would help build a lasting social base for the energy transition we have to have.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Morton receives funding from Australian Research Council </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Goodman receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Paul Marshall is involved in project "Society and climate change: A social analysis of disruptive technology" and participating in "Decarbonising Electricity: a Comparison in Socio-ecological Relations". He is a member of the Greens.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katja Müller received ARC funding for 'The Coal Rush and Beyond' and 'Decarbonising Electricity'.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Riikka Heikkinen receives funding from a scholarship from UTS for my PhD. She has student memberships in the Australian Institute of Energy, Smart Energy Council and Australian Wind Alliance.</span></em></p>Renewable energy projects are often in direct competition with fossil fuels for the hearts and minds of communities. There’s a way to win people over though, with ongoing local employment.Tom Morton, Associate Professor, Journalism, Stream Leader, Climate Justice Research Centre, University of Technology SydneyJames Goodman, Professor in Political Sociology, University of Technology SydneyJonathan Paul Marshall, Future Fellow, University of Technology SydneyKatja Müller, Postdoctoral Researcher in Anthropology, Martin Luther University Halle-WittenbergRiikka Heikkinen, PhD Candidate, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1304592020-05-29T06:15:07Z2020-05-29T06:15:07ZReally Australia, it’s not that hard: 10 reasons why renewable energy is the future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338471/original/file-20200529-51509-jv1hf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C0%2C3479%2C2106&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucy Nicholson/Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s latest greenhouse gas figures <a href="https://publications.industry.gov.au/publications/climate-change/climate-change/climate-science-data/greenhouse-gas-measurement/publications.html#quarterly">released today</a> show national emissions fell slightly last year. This was by no means an economy-wide effort – solar and wind energy did most of the heavy lifting.</p>
<p>Emissions fell 0.9% last year compared to 2018. The rapid deployment of solar and wind is slashing emissions in the electricity sector, offsetting increases from all other sectors combined. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-an-aussie-invention-could-soon-cut-5-of-the-worlds-greenhouse-gas-emissions-121571">How an Aussie invention could soon cut 5% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions</a>
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<p>Renewables (solar, wind and hydro) now comprise <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/30/australias-electricity-grid-could-run-with-75-renewables-market-operator-says">26% of the mix</a> in the National Electricity Market. In 2023, renewables will likely pass black coal to become the largest electricity source.</p>
<p>In an ideal world, all sectors of the economy – transport, agriculture, manufacturing and others – would pull in the same direction to cut emissions. But hearteningly, these figures show the huge potential for renewables.</p>
<p>Here are 10 reasons why renewable energy makes perfect sense for Australia. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338477/original/file-20200529-51496-10lonrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338477/original/file-20200529-51496-10lonrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338477/original/file-20200529-51496-10lonrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338477/original/file-20200529-51496-10lonrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338477/original/file-20200529-51496-10lonrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338477/original/file-20200529-51496-10lonrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338477/original/file-20200529-51496-10lonrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia leads the world in rooftop solar installations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>1. It can readily eliminate fossil fuels</h2>
<p>About 15 gigawatts of solar and wind farms will probably start operating <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/Large-scale-Renewable-Energy-Target-market-data">over 2018-2021</a>. That’s on top of more than 2 gigawatts of rooftop solar to be added each year. </p>
<p>It averages out at about 6 gigawatts of additional solar and wind power annually. Research from the Australian National University, which is under review, shows the rate only has to double to about 12 gigawatts to eliminate fossil fuels by 2050, including from electricity, transport, heating and industry.</p>
<p>Fossil fuel mining and use causes 85% of total <a href="https://publications.industry.gov.au/publications/climate-change/climate-change/climate-science-data/greenhouse-gas-measurement/publications.html#quarterly">national emissions</a> – and doubling the renewables deployment rate would eliminate this.</p>
<p>The task becomes more than achievable when you consider the continual fall in renewables prices, which helped treble solar and wind deployment between 2017 and 2020. </p>
<h2>2. Solar is already king</h2>
<p>Solar is the top global energy technology in terms of new generation capacity added <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8836526">each year</a>, with wind energy in second spot. Solar and wind energy are already huge industries globally, and employ 27,000 people <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4631.0?OpenDocument">in Australia</a> – a doubling in just three years.</p>
<h2>3. Solar and wind are getting cheaper</h2>
<p>Solar and wind electricity in Australia already costs less than it would from new coal and gas plants.</p>
<p>The price is headed for <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/technology-leaps-driving-cost-of-solar-pv-electricity-in-australia-to-just-a30-mwh-42052/">A$30 per megawatt hour</a> in 2030. This undercuts most existing gas and coal stations and competes with gas for industrial heating. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338473/original/file-20200529-51456-mfb7ry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Renewable electricity is becoming cheaper than coal-fired power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Petr Josek/Reuters</span></span>
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<h2>4. Stable renewable electricity is not hard</h2>
<p>Balancing renewables is a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217309568">straightforward exercise</a> using existing technology. The current high voltage transmission network must be strengthened so projects in regional areas can deliver renewable electricity into cities. And if wind and sun is not plentiful in one region, a stronger transmission network can deliver electricity from elsewhere. Electricity storage such as <a href="http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/index.php">pumped hydro</a> and batteries can also smooth out supplies.</p>
<h2>5. There’s enough land</h2>
<p>To eliminate all fossil fuel use, Australia <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/k6yg0r5hkswsnwv/Calculations.xlsx?dl=0">would need</a> about 60 square metres of solar panel per person, and one wind turbine per 2,000 people. Panels on rooftops take up no land, and wind turbines use very little. If global energy consumption per person increased drastically to reach Australian levels, solar farms on just <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/k6yg0r5hkswsnwv/Calculations.xlsx?dl=0">0.1% of Earth’s surface</a> could meet this demand.</p>
<h2>6. Raw materials won’t run out</h2>
<p>A solar panel needs silicon, a glass cover, plastic, an aluminium panel frame, copper and aluminium electrical conductors and small amounts of other common materials. These materials are what our world is made of. Recycling panel materials at the end of their life adds only slightly to larger existing recycling streams.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338476/original/file-20200529-51477-1hy6sj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338476/original/file-20200529-51477-1hy6sj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338476/original/file-20200529-51477-1hy6sj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338476/original/file-20200529-51477-1hy6sj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338476/original/file-20200529-51477-1hy6sj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338476/original/file-20200529-51477-1hy6sj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338476/original/file-20200529-51477-1hy6sj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Solar panel materials are relatively easy to obtain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tim Winbourne/Reuters</span></span>
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<h2>7. Nearly every country has good sun or wind</h2>
<p>Three-quarters of the global population lives in the planet’s sunbelt (lower than 35 degrees of latitude). This includes most developing countries, where most of the growth in energy consumption and greenhouse emissions <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8836526">is occurring</a>.</p>
<h2>8. We will never go to war over sunshine</h2>
<p>Solar and wind power make energy systems much more robust in the face of a pandemic, disasters or war. They are difficult to misuse in any significant way for military, terrorist or criminal activities. And it is hard to destroy billions of solar panels spread over millions of square kilometres. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-single-mega-project-exposes-the-morrison-governments-gas-plan-as-staggering-folly-133435">A single mega-project exposes the Morrison government's gas plan as staggering folly</a>
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<h2>9. Solar accidents and pollution are small</h2>
<p>Solar panel accidents pale in comparison to spilled radioactive material (like Fukushima or Chernobyl), an oil disaster (like BP’s Deepwater Horizon), or a coal mine fire (like Hazelwood in Victoria). Wind and solar electricity eliminates oil imports, oil-related warfare, fracking for gas, strip mining for coal, smokestacks, car exhausts and smog.</p>
<h2>10. Payback time is short</h2>
<p>For a sunny country like Australia, the time required to recover the energy invested in panel manufacture is <a href="https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/en/documents/publications/studies/recent-facts-about-photovoltaics-in-germany.pdf">less than two years</a>, compared with a panel lifetime of 30 years. And when the world is solar powered, the energy required to produce more panels is non-polluting.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338475/original/file-20200529-51509-12ovtp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338475/original/file-20200529-51509-12ovtp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338475/original/file-20200529-51509-12ovtp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338475/original/file-20200529-51509-12ovtp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338475/original/file-20200529-51509-12ovtp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338475/original/file-20200529-51509-12ovtp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338475/original/file-20200529-51509-12ovtp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Renewable energy can do they heavy lifting on emissions reduction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vincent West/Reuters</span></span>
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<h2>The future is bright</h2>
<p>While COVID-19 triggered a significant fall in global emissions so far this year, they may <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-a-sliding-doors-moment-what-we-do-now-could-change-earths-trajectory-137838">bounce back</a>. But if solar and wind deployment stay at current levels, Australia is tracking towards <a href="https://theconversation.com/some-good-news-for-a-change-australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-set-to-fall-125559">meeting its Paris target</a>.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/mar/renewable-energy-investment-in-australia.html">says</a> investment in renewables may moderate in the near term, but “over the longer term, the transition towards renewable energy generation is expected to continue”.</p>
<p>But there are hurdles. In the short term, more transmission infrastructure is needed. Electrifying transport (with electric vehicles) and urban heating (with electric heat pumps) is straightforward. More difficult is eliminating fossil fuels from industries such as steel and fertilisers. This is a task for the 2030s. </p>
<p>But it’s clear that to get to net-zero carbon emissions by mid century, solar and wind are far and away Australia’s best option.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-the-runaway-global-leader-in-building-new-renewable-energy-123694">Australia is the runaway global leader in building new renewable energy</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives reserach funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and similar bodies.</span></em></p>Renewables technology already exists, it’s getting cheaper and we will never go to war over sunshine. If you need to be convinced of the potential of wind and solar, read this.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1236942019-09-24T20:15:10Z2019-09-24T20:15:10ZAustralia is the runaway global leader in building new renewable energy<p>In Australia, renewable energy is growing at a per capita rate ten times faster than the world average. Between 2018 and 2020, Australia will install more than 16 gigawatts of wind and solar, an average rate of 220 watts per person per year. </p>
<p>This is nearly three times faster than the next fastest country, Germany. Australia is demonstrating to the world how rapidly an industrialised country with a fossil-fuel-dominated electricity system can transition towards low-carbon, renewable power generation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292952/original/file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewable energy capacity installations per capita.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">International capacity data for 2018 from the International Renewable Energy Agency. Australian data from the Clean Energy Regulator.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About/Pages/News%20and%20updates/NewsItem.aspx?ListId=19b4efbb-6f5d-4637-94c4-121c1f96fcfe&ItemId=683">Clean Energy Regulator accredited</a> Tasmania’s 148.5 megawatt (MW) Cattle Hill Wind Farm in August, Australia met its <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/Pages/News%20and%20updates/NewsItem.aspx?ListId=19b4efbb-6f5d-4637-94c4-121c1f96fcfe&ItemId=683">Renewable Energy Target</a> well ahead of schedule.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-met-its-renewable-energy-target-but-dont-pop-the-champagne-122939">Australia has met its renewable energy target. But don’t pop the champagne</a>
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<p>We have <a href="https://energy.anu.edu.au/files/Renewable%20energy%20target%20report%20September%202019_1_0.pdf">analysed</a> data from the regulator which tracks large- and small-scale renewable energy generation (including credible future projects), and found the record-high installation rates of 2018 will continue through 2019 and 2020.</p>
<h2>Record renewable energy installation rates</h2>
<p>While <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-met-its-renewable-energy-target-but-dont-pop-the-champagne-122939">other analyses</a> have pointed out that investment dollars in renewable energy fell in 2019, actual <em>generation capacity</em> has risen. Reductions in building costs may be contributing, as less investment will buy you more capacity.</p>
<p>Last year was a record year for renewable energy installations, with 5.1 gigawatts (GW) accredited in 2018, far exceeding the previous record of 2.2GW in 2017. </p>
<p>The increase was driven by the dramatic rise of large-scale solar farms, which comprised half of the new-build capacity accredited in 2018. There was a tenfold increase in solar farm construction from 2017.</p>
<p>We have projected the remaining builds for 2019 and those for 2020, based on data from the Clean Energy Regulator for public firm announcements for projects. </p>
<p>A project is considered firm if it has a power purchase agreement (PPA, a contract to sell the energy generated), has reached financial close, or is under construction. We assume six months for financial close and start of construction after a long-term supply contract is signed, and 12 or 18 months for solar farm or wind farm construction, respectively.</p>
<p>This year is on track to be another record year, with 6.5GW projected to be complete by the end of 2019. </p>
<p>The increase is largely attributable to a significant increase in the number of wind farms approaching completion. Rooftop solar has also increased, with current installation rates putting Australia on track for 1.9GW in 2019, also a new record. </p>
<p>This is attributed to the continued cost reductions in rooftop solar, with less than A$1,000 per kilowatt now considered routine and payback periods of the order of two to seven years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292954/original/file-20190918-187985-r9h3yc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Current (solid) and forecast (hashed) installations of renewable electricity capacity in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Looking ahead to 2020, almost 6GW of large-scale projects are expected to be completed, comprising 2.5GW of solar farms and 3.5GW of wind. Around the end of 2020, this additional generation would deliver the old Renewable Energy Target of 41,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) per annum. That target was legislated in 2009 by the Rudd Labor government but <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/RenewableEnergy">reduced to 33,000GWh</a> by the Abbott Coalition government in 2015. </p>
<h2>Maintaining the pipeline</h2>
<p>There are strong prospects for continued high installation rates of renewables. Currently available renewable energy contracts are routinely offering <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/snowy-says-cost-of-firm-wind-and-solar-significantly-below-current-base-load-prices-76846/">less than A$50 per MWh</a>. Long-term contracts for future energy supply have an average price of more than A$58 per MWh. This is a very reasonable profit margin, suggesting a <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/products/energy-derivatives/australian-electricity.htm">strong economic case</a> for continued installations. Wind and solar prices are likely to decline further throughout the 2020s.</p>
<p>State governments programs are also supporting renewable electricity growth. The ACT has completed contracts for 100% renewable electricity. Victoria and Queensland both have renewable energy targets of 50% renewable electricity by 2030. South Australia is expecting to reach 100% by 2025. </p>
<p>The main impediment to continued renewables growth is transmission. Transmission constraints have resulted in bottlenecks in moving electricity from some wind and solar farms to cities. </p>
<p>Tasmania’s strong wind resource requires a new connection to the mainland to unlock more projects. The limitations of current planning frameworks for this transition were recognised in Chief Scientist Alan Finkel’s review of the National Electricity Market, with strong recommendations to overcome these problems and, in particular, to <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/independent-review-future-security-national-electricity-market-blueprint-future">strengthen the role of the Australian Energy Market Operator</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-a-100-renewable-energy-future-can-create-jobs-and-even-save-the-gas-industry-110285">Here's how a 100% renewable energy future can create jobs and even save the gas industry</a>
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<hr>
<p>Now we need state and federal governments to unlock or directly support transmission expansion. For example, the <a href="https://www.dnrme.qld.gov.au/energy/initiatives/poweringqueensland#targetText=The%20Powering%20Queensland%20Plan%20sets,and%20secure%%2020supply%20of%20electricity">Queensland government</a> has committed to supporting new transmission to unlock solar and wind projects in the far north, including the Genex/Kidston 250MW pumped hydro storage system. The New South Wales government will expedite planning approval for an <a href="https://www.transgrid.com.au/news-views/news/2019/Pages/Project-EnergyConnect-deemed-critical-infrastructure-in-NSW.aspx">interconnector</a> between that state and South Australia, defining it as “critical infrastructure”.</p>
<p>These investments are key to Australia maintaining its renewable energy leadership into the next decade.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123694/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Stocks receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and similar bodies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ken Baldwin receives funding from the Australian Research Council </span></em></p>Australia is installing renewable energy at more than ten times the global average. This is excellent news, but raises serious questions about integrating this electricity into our grids.Matthew Stocks, Research Fellow, ANU College of Engineering and Computer Science, Australian National UniversityAndrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityKen Baldwin, Director, Energy Change Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1192662019-06-25T23:13:58Z2019-06-25T23:13:58ZWithout changes, Scheer’s climate plan will be expensive or useless<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281164/original/file-20190625-81776-1v6qh84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=69%2C79%2C3124%2C2180&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer delivers a speech on the environment in Chelsea, Que. on June 19, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-climate-environment-plan-election-von-scheel-1.5177187">Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer unveiled his long-awaited climate plan</a>, he said he could eliminate the federal carbon tax and still meet Canada’s emissions targets by focusing on investments into green technology. Tech, not taxes, he said.</p>
<p>Under the plan, major emitters would not pay a carbon tax and would, instead, have to invest in “emissions-reducing technology.” But if you look closer, these investments may not actually reduce emissions. </p>
<p>Instead of investing in proven green technology such as wind farms and solar power, Scheer’s plan allows industries to fund things with the potential to reduce emissions, like research or green companies. This flexibility reduces the guaranteed benefits of these green investments.</p>
<p>Although the details remain sparse, Scheer’s proposal isn’t entirely off base: My own research shows that investment into green technologies can offset the emissions of an entire industry, but it can only work in certain circumstances. With a couple of modifications, policies like Scheer’s can bring more predictable and affordable emissions reductions.</p>
<h2>A disguised carbon tax</h2>
<p>Scheer’s plan includes “<a href="https://arealplan.ca">green investment standards</a>” that would force major emitters to invest a set amount, based on their emissions. Investments must go to activities, technologies, companies or research that might eventually reduce emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281226/original/file-20190625-81741-12l88eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281226/original/file-20190625-81741-12l88eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281226/original/file-20190625-81741-12l88eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281226/original/file-20190625-81741-12l88eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281226/original/file-20190625-81741-12l88eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281226/original/file-20190625-81741-12l88eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281226/original/file-20190625-81741-12l88eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unless large emitters invest in proven technologies, emissions may continue to rise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shuttersock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>These mandatory investments would create financial pressure to lower emissions, much like a carbon tax. But, unlike many carbon taxes, these investments aim to reduce emissions in the “medium term,” according to Scheer. </p>
<p>It’s not clear how long that might be or what the investment amounts will be. Surprisingly, the standards let emitters invest in indirect emissions reductions, including funding research or a purchasing a clean-tech start-up company. </p>
<p>Allowing investments that do not create substantial short-term emissions reductions creates a major loophole. For example, a $1 million factory expansion that also reduced factory emissions by 0.01 per cent might be considered an eligible investment under Scheer’s plan, but that $1 million would have little effect on emissions. </p>
<p>Scheer could improve his plan with this change: Make explicit emissions-reduction targets for investments, and let the private sector innovate and find cheaper paths to those targets.</p>
<h2>Affordable or effective?</h2>
<p><a href="https://repository.law.umich.edu/articles/52/">Typical climate policies fall into two categories</a>. Defined costs, like a carbon tax, where fixed financial penalties encourage greener choices, but the benefits can vary. Or, defined benefits, like cap-and-trade, where regulations require emissions to change, but the costs can vary. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://doi.org/10.3386/w19338">research suggests that the details of a climate policy matter more than its structure</a>, Scheer is proposing a new policy structure without providing details. Without details, Scheer’s plan may seem like the best of both a carbon tax and a cap-and-trade system. But without firm emissions-reduction targets, Scheer’s policy relies on its financial incentives for emissions reductions and will behave like a carbon tax.</p>
<p>To be effective, therefore, the required investments per tonne of emissions in Scheer’s plan would need to be similar to the per tonne costs of the carbon tax. Yet Scheer decries projections that an effective federal carbon tax would need to climb north of $100 per tonne. Both Scheer’s plan and the federal carbon tax rely on financial incentives to reduce emissions. Either policy will force Canadians to choose between an affordable climate policy and an effective one. </p>
<p>My research team has found a way to ease this dilemma. With a couple of modifications, the efficiency of policies like Scheer’s can be improved by as much as five times.</p>
<h2>A savings opportunity</h2>
<p>We looked at what would happen to emissions if fossil fuel producers were forced to invest in green technologies that were known to be profitable or save costs, and were further required to reinvest a portion of those profits or cost savings. We created a simulation where oil and gas producers in North Dakota were forced to invest in wind turbines — and reinvest a fraction of the wind turbines’ revenue into more wind turbines.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281225/original/file-20190625-81766-y94swh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281225/original/file-20190625-81766-y94swh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281225/original/file-20190625-81766-y94swh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281225/original/file-20190625-81766-y94swh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281225/original/file-20190625-81766-y94swh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281225/original/file-20190625-81766-y94swh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281225/original/file-20190625-81766-y94swh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In a simulation, researchers found that when oil and gas producers in North Dakota invested and reinvested in wind turbines, emissions and costs decreased.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The initial investments in wind turbines turned a profit and some of that profit went towards growing the wind farm. This feedback loop allowed the wind farm and its emissions offsets to grow exponentially and reduced the necessary initial investments. In North Dakota, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.158">the investments needed to offset all of the emissions from producing and consuming oil and gas dropped from about 50 per cent of the value of the hydrocarbons to 10 per cent because of reinvestments</a>. </p>
<p>Combining investment and reinvestment into proven and successful green technologies allows green technologies to expand more quickly. Policies with reinvestment are like a savings account with a high interest rate — over time, the balance is funded by more than the initial investment. </p>
<p>Reinvestment makes green technologies and their emissions reductions available at a lower cost to consumers and businesses. Owning profitable and growing green technologies gives businesses, consumers and heavy emitters a transition plan, which my colleagues and I call “black-into-green,” or the BIG transition. </p>
<h2>Mandate reinvestments</h2>
<p>While our case study is not directly applicable everywhere (and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2017.01.003">is not as favourable in the Athabasca oil sands</a> due to lower wind speeds and greener Canadian electricity), it demonstrates the benefits of pairing investments and reinvestments into profitable or cost-saving green technologies.</p>
<p>Our work suggests Scheer should make another modification to his plan: The green investment standards should mandate that heavy emitters make profitable or cost-saving green investments and reinvest a portion of those profits or savings.</p>
<p>Scheer’s green investment plan is missing key details and needs two major improvements. The Conservatives should mandate the efficacy of investments and require reinvestments. Without these modifications, the proposed green investment standards, like a carbon tax, are another climate policy that can be either affordable or effective — but not both. </p>
<p>Given this trade-off, Canadians should fear promises of affordability and advocate for more efficient climate policies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Taylor has and continues to receive some funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). Were the Green Investment Standards implemented, David Taylor might be eligible for some of the funding allocated to "research" as part of these standards. </span></em></p>The Conservatives’ green investment standards may not have a direct impact on emissions. But with a few tweaks, it could be effective and affordable.David Meyer, Assistant Professor in Global and Civil Engineering, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/812632017-08-14T04:50:52Z2017-08-14T04:50:52ZFactCheck Q&A: is coal still cheaper than renewables as an energy source?<p><strong>The Conversation fact-checks claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9.35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, July 17, 2017.</span></figcaption>
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<blockquote>
<p>Q&A AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. Renewable energy is more carbon-efficient, and now cheaper, than coal and other fossil fuels …</p>
<p>MATT CANAVAN: Thanks, James. Look, I don’t accept that renewables are, at the moment, cheaper than coal.</p>
<p><strong>– Excerpt from a question posed by Q&A audience member James Newbold to the then resources minister, Senator Matt Canavan, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfSXw4uCi2I&feature=youtu.be">on Q&A</a>, July 17, 2017</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>One of the biggest debates under way in Australia (and around the world) is about electricity and how it should be generated. One of the major pressure points is prices.</p>
<p>During <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfSXw4uCi2I&feature=youtu.be">an episode</a> of Q&A, audience member James Newbold said renewable energy is “now cheaper than coal and other fossil fuels”. Senator Matt Canavan (<a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-matt-canavan-quits-as-resources-minister-in-latest-citizenship-blow-81570">then resources minister</a>) disagreed, saying: “I don’t accept that renewables are, at the moment, cheaper than coal.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"886931860382666752"}"></div></p>
<p>Let’s look at the numbers. </p>
<h2>Checking the sources</h2>
<p>The Conversation contacted Matt Canavan’s spokesperson for sources to support his statement but did not hear back before deadline. Nonetheless, we can test his statement against publicly available data.</p>
<h2>What do the data show?</h2>
<p>Based on the electricity generated now by old coal-fired power stations with sunk costs (meaning money that has already been spent and cannot be recovered), Canavan was right to say: “I don’t accept that renewables are, at the moment, cheaper than coal.”</p>
<p>In 2017, the marginal cost of generating power from an existing coal station is <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/National-Transmission-Network-Development-Plan/NTNDP-database">less than $40/MWh</a>, while wind power is $60-70/MWh (explained below). So why do <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Renewable_Infrastructure_Investment_Handbook.pdf">people</a> <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/4127a8c364c1f9fa8ab096b04cd93f78.pdf">say</a> renewables are now cheaper than coal?</p>
<p>Well, they’re often talking about what would be the cheaper option if old coal-fired power stations were replaced today – in other words, the <em>new-build</em> price.</p>
<p>Making the distinction between the cost of <em>existing</em> energy generation and the cost of <em>new-build</em> energy generation in this debate is very important. Comparing the two is like comparing apples and oranges. </p>
<p>Current prices are based on existing installations, while <em>new-build</em> prices compare the costs of different technologies if their operating lives started today. This matters because Australia’s existing coal-fired power stations are ageing and will need to be replaced.</p>
<p>Comparing new-build prices is more complicated than comparing current costs, as I’ll discuss later in this FactCheck.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-will-be-cheaper-than-coal-in-the-future-here-are-the-numbers-84433">Renewables will be cheaper than coal in the future. Here are the numbers</a>
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<h2>How do we measure the cost of electrical power?</h2>
<p>Let’s cover the basic terminology first. </p>
<p>Electrical energy is measured in <a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/kilowatt">kilowatt</a>-hours (kWh) – the units generally used for metering and charging residential electricity use. One kilowatt-hour represents the amount of energy a device that draws one kilowatt of power (like a household heater, for example) would use in one hour. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/megawatt-hour">megawatt-hour</a> (MWh) is 1,000 times larger, and it’s what we typically use to measure large electricity loads or generators. So when we’re comparing the cost of electrical energy generated by different sources, we’ll be talking about Australian dollars per megawatt-hour ($/MWh).</p>
<h2>Comparing prices for different sources of electricity</h2>
<p>We need to take a few things into account when calculating the cost of electricity created by different technologies.</p>
<p>First, we need to factor in how much it costs to establish the source in the first place – whether that’s a coal-fired power station, a wind farm or a hydro-power plant. Then we need to factor in how much it costs to operate, fuel and maintain that facility over its lifetime. </p>
<p>These factors and the cost of capital (like the interest rate) are commonly combined into a metric called the “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source">levelised cost of electricity</a>” (or the LCOE). This provides a measure of the total cost in current dollars per unit of electrical energy generated ($/MWh) over the lifetime of the facility.</p>
<p>We also need to know the time frame in question. A coal-fired power station that’s nearing the end of its operating life may have recovered its original capital investment. So the marginal cost of coal-fired electricity may be low, compared to the levelised cost of a new wind farm that’s yet to recoup its initial capital cost.</p>
<p>Using the levelised costs of electricity created by different technologies does not always provide a perfect comparison. Comparing such different technologies will never be comparing apples with apples. But it’s the best measure we’ve got for a simple “plug and play” replacement of a single generating source. </p>
<h2>Current prices for coal-fired and wind power</h2>
<p>Today, most of Australia’s electricity is <a href="http://www.aemc.gov.au/Australias-Energy-Market/Electricity/Generation">sourced from coal-fired power stations</a>. In their discussion on Q&A, Newbold and Canavan referred broadly to “renewables”. Currently, wind power is <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/electricity-market-review-final-report.pdf">the cheapest form of renewable energy</a>. So we’ll use that as the basis for comparison with coal-fired energy. </p>
<p>In 2017, the marginal cost of generating power from an existing black coal-fired station is <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/National-Transmission-Network-Development-Plan/NTNDP-database">less than $40/MWh</a>. Brown coal-fired power is even cheaper.</p>
<p>To establish the current price of wind power, we can look at the announcement by <a href="https://www.originenergy.com.au/about.html">Origin Energy</a> in May 2017. The company agreed to buy all the power to be generated by the <a href="http://www.stockyardhillwindfarm.com.au/">Stockyard Hill Wind Farm</a> in Victoria between 2019 and 2030 for <a href="https://www.originenergy.com.au/about/investors-media/media-centre/origin-adds-530mw-of-renewable-energy-to-its-portfolio.html">less than $60/MWh</a>. </p>
<p>A similar price was struck in March 2016 when the Australian Capital Territory government conducted its second “wind auction”. The government uses wind auctions to buy contracts for future energy supplies. The lowest price in the 2016 auction yielded around $60/MWh in current prices. This figure is based on a flat rate of <a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/828225/Renewables-and-Wind-Auction-Factsheet-ACCESS.pdf">$77/MWh</a> for 20 years and assumes around 3% inflation, which is the upper end of Australia’s <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/inflation-target.html">inflation rate target</a> of 2-3%.</p>
<p>Combining the total price range for that auction with this inflation range gives around $60-$70/MWh in current prices, with wind farms currently operating in that adjusted range.</p>
<p>So, based on the marginal cost of energy generated by existing coal-fired power stations with sunk costs, Canavan is correct in saying that renewables are not “at the moment, cheaper than coal”. </p>
<p>However, the story is different if we are talking about <em>new-build</em> electricity prices. And this is often where conversations and debates become confused.</p>
<h2>Why new-build electricity prices matter</h2>
<p>Coal-fired power stations in Australia have operating lives of around 50 years. As can be seen from the table below, nine of Australia’s 12 biggest operating coal-fired power stations are <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/Coal_fired_power_stations/Final_Report">more than 30 years old</a>. </p>
<p>In preparation for the retirement of those older coal-fired stations, policymakers, energy companies and other investors are debating whether to replace them with new coal-fired power stations, or other types of energy generation. This is where the comparison of <em>new-build</em> costs comes into play. </p>
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<h2>New-build prices for coal-fired and wind power</h2>
<p>FactChecks rely on data from events that have already occurred. So we can’t say with factual certainty whether or not renewables would be cheaper than coal as a new-build energy source, because no coal-fired power stations have been built recently. </p>
<p>But we do have recent prices for the cheapest form of <em>new-build</em> renewable energy, which is newly installed wind power.</p>
<p>And we do have recent levelised price <em>projections</em> for the cheapest <em>new-build</em> fossil fuel energy, which is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercritical_steam_generator">supercritical</a> coal power.</p>
<p>The <em>projected</em> price for new <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercritical_steam_generator">supercritical</a> coal power comes in at around $75/MWh from the recent <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/electricity-market-review-final-report.pdf">Finkel review of the National Electricity Market</a>, based on data produced by <a href="http://www.jacobsconsultancy.com/">Jacobs Consultancy</a>. That is consistent with the price of $80/MWh from the 2016 report by the <a href="http://www.co2crc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LCOE_Report_final_web.pdf">CO2 Cooperative Research Centre</a>, and less than the $84-94/MWh from the 2012/3 <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/Office-of-the-Chief-Economist/Publications/Pages/Australian-energy-technology-assessments.aspx">Australian Energy Technology Assessment</a> .</p>
<p>These projections for new supercritical coal power are higher than the recent prices for newly installed wind power (outlined earlier in the FactCheck) at <a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/796599/ACT-Wind-Auction-II-Review-Summary-report-v4.pdf">around $60-70/MWh</a> in current prices over the 20-year contract period (which is similar to a levelised cost).</p>
<p>So, if we look at recent wind power prices and recent price <em>projections</em> for new supercritical coal power, it’s reasonable to say that – <em>as things stand today</em> – wind power would be the cheaper <em>new-build</em> source of electricity.</p>
<h2>Future prices</h2>
<p>There are important additional factors that need to be taken into account when considering the costs of new-build coal-fired electricity and new-build renewable electricity as we look further into the future. Three of the main considerations are:</p>
<ul>
<li>upgrades to the energy grid (including energy storage) to <a href="https://theconversation.com/relying-on-renewables-need-not-mean-dealing-with-blackouts-28635">balance</a> the use of intermittent renewables, especially once renewable energy exceeds around 50% of all energy supply (this would <a href="http://energy.anu.edu.au/files/renewable%20electricity%20in%20Australia.pdf">increase</a> the price of renewables) </li>
<li>the introduction of a <a href="http://www.oecd.org/env/tools-evaluation/effective-carbon-prices-9789264196964-en.htm">price on carbon emissions</a> (this would <a href="http://carbonpricemodelling.treasury.gov.au/content/report/04overview.asp">increase</a> the price of coal)</li>
<li>improvements in technology (this is expected to <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/publications/electricity-market-final-report">reduce</a> the price of renewables more so than coal).<br></li>
</ul>
<p>It is possible to make educated assumptions about how these factors would affect prices in the future. But I won’t include those projections in this FactCheck, for two reasons: </p>
<ul>
<li>firstly, we are yet to see the outcomes</li>
<li>secondly, the Q&A audience member and Canavan were discussing prices as they are “now” and “at the moment”.</li>
</ul>
<p>So that’s what I’ve addressed in this FactCheck.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Based on the electricity generated now by old coal-fired power stations with sunk costs, Matt Canavan was right to say: “I don’t accept that renewables are, at the moment, cheaper than coal.” In 2017, the marginal cost of generating power from an existing coal station is less than $40/MWh, while wind power is $60-70/MWh.</p>
<p>The Q&A audience member may have been talking about <em>new-build</em> prices.</p>
<p>Based on recent prices for newly installed wind power of around $60-70/MWh, and recent price <em>projections</em> for new supercritical coal power at around $75/MWh, it is reasonable to say that – <em>as things stand today</em> – wind power would be cheaper than coal as a <em>new-build</em> source of electricity. <strong>– Ken Baldwin</strong></p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>The author has provided a sound FactCheck that covers a lot of the complexities of a challenging issue. I would add one remark, which doesn’t detract from the author’s verdict.</p>
<p>The cost of new-build coal is likely to be higher than reported in the FactCheck. </p>
<p>The author was correct to point out that the introduction of a price on carbon emissions would <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-coal-plants-wouldnt-be-clean-and-would-cost-billions-in-taxpayer-subsidies-72362">increase</a> the cost of new-build coal-fired electricity.</p>
<p>The mere <em>possibility</em> of the introduction of a price on carbon or carbon regulation in the future actually affects the costs of new-build coal-fired electricity today. The risk of increased costs or regulation for emission-intensive generators manifests itself as a higher “risk premium” applied to current financing costs. The overall effect is a higher weighted average cost of capital (basically, a higher average interest rate) for emission-intensive generation.</p>
<p>In the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/electricity-market-review-final-report.pdf">Finkel review</a>, the weighted average cost of capital for coal is projected to be 14.9%, compared to 7.1% for renewables. Risk-adjusted financing costs would result in the levelised cost of new coal being higher than the figures presented in the FactCheck. <strong>– Dylan McConnell</strong></p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>The cost of electricity produced from a new wind farm is competitive with the best estimates for the cost of electricity produced from a new coal station, and cheaper than the cost of new coal quoted in very reputable analyses (<a href="http://www.co2crc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LCOE_Report_final_web.pdf">CO2CRC 2015</a> and <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Futures/Reports/Low-Emissions-Technology-Roadmap">CSIRO 2017</a>).</p>
<p>As noted by the author, the comparison in this FactCheck does not include the cost of intermittency for renewables. Recognising that no technology runs 100% of the time, there is a backup cost to be added to wind to make it as firm (or stable) as a fuel-based plant. Available costs for such backup, such as large-scale battery or pumped storage, are based on estimates and are the subject of much current study.</p>
<p>New wind with backup could very well be very competitive with new coal, particularly if the cost of emissions is recognised. However, at present, the contention either way is unproven. <strong>– Tony Wood</strong></p>
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<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
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<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit is the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ken Baldwin receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan McConnell has received funding from the AEMC's Consumer Advocacy Panel and Energy Consumers Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Through his superannuation fund, Tony Wood owns shares in a number of energy and resources companies.</span></em></p>On Q&A, an audience member said renewable energy is ‘now cheaper than coal’. Senator Matt Canavan disagreed, saying renewables are not ‘at the moment, cheaper than coal’. Let’s look at the numbers.Ken Baldwin, Director, Energy Change Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/759112017-04-07T00:21:23Z2017-04-07T00:21:23ZThe stampede of wind farm complaints that never happened<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164367/original/image-20170406-16654-gto650.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Why were so few complaints about wind farms investigated further? And who made these complaints anyway?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success?src=sHcVzcHfMw_n2Th8MUlTsw-1-2">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>National Wind Farm Commissioner, Andrew Dyer, has just released his much anticipated <a href="https://www.nwfc.gov.au/sites/g/files/net1881/f/nwfc-annual-report-2016-final.pdf?v=1491198609">first annual report</a>.</p>
<p>In its first year of operation until the end of 2016, the <a href="https://www.nwfc.gov.au/">National Wind Farm Commissioner</a> says his office received:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>46 complaints relating to nine operating wind farms (there were 76 operational wind farms in Australian in 2015)</p></li>
<li><p>42 complaints relating to 19 proposed wind farms</p></li>
<li><p>two complaints that did not specify a wind farm.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The commissioner’s office closed 67 or these 90 complaints, with the remaining 23 complaints still in process.</p>
<p>Of the 67 now-closed complaints, the office closed 31 because the complainant did not progress their complaint. This suggests these complaints were minor.</p>
<p>The office closed the file on another 32 after it sent complainants more information about their complaints.</p>
<p>This leaves only four, which the report describes two as being settled after negotiations between the parties, and two given the ambiguous category of “other”.</p>
<p>These figures are frankly astonishing. </p>
<p>The complaint investigating mechanism was set up after a Senate enquiry <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Wind_Turbines/Wind_Turbines/Final_Report">report</a> that cost undisclosed millions to deal with a “massive” problem with wind turbines.</p>
<p>But the hordes of people who apparently needed a way to help them resolve matters have now gone shy.</p>
<p>Chair of the <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Wind_Turbines/Wind_Turbines">Senate Committee on Wind Turbines</a> was ex-Senator John Madigan, a public critic of wind farms.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">John Madigan speaking out against wind farms at the National Wind Power Fraud Rally in 2013.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other members who signed off on the senate inquiry report included Senator Nick Xenophon, another long-time critic.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Senator Nick Xenophon criticising wind turbines on the Seven Network’s Today Tonight in 2012.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Complaints vs complainants</h2>
<p>The National Wind Farm Commissioner’s first annual report avoids two key issues.</p>
<p>First, it doesn’t mention how many complainants made the 90 complaints. The anti-wind farm “movement” in Australia is often busy plaguing politicians and the few supportive media outlets that give it time. </p>
<p>One woman from Victoria often sends out emails to well over 100 politicians and journalists. Others join her to try to demonise wind turbines. Those in this small group appear again and again as submission authors to what have now been three senate enquires and two state government enquiries.</p>
<p>This phenomenon is well known in government circles. In the last three months of 2016, <a href="http://www.cityam.com/262227/half-heathrow-airports-25000-noise-complaints-last-three%22%22">just 10 people</a> submitted half of Heathrow Airport’s 25,000 noise complaints.</p>
<p>The second omission from the annual report is any mention of its budget or expenditure. The Office of the National Wind Farm Commissioner is independent and has its own <a href="https://www.nwfc.gov.au/">website</a>. But unless I missed it, there are no budget or expenditure figures in either the annual report nor the website. Is this a first for an annual report?</p>
<p>We know that commissioner Andrew Dyer gets <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/windfall-for-wind-farm-watchdog-pms-parttime-commissioner-to-nab-600000-20151127-gla5v7.html">A$205,000 a year</a> for his part-time role, on a three year contract. With the numbers we now have about the low number of complaints, this sounds like a tough gig. But what about the staff and office costs, which are nowhere to be found.</p>
<h2>No complaints in Western Australia and Tasmania</h2>
<p>As I reported in my <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0076584">2013 peer reviewed report</a> into wind farm complaints, there were no records of complaints for Western Australia and Tasmania. </p>
<p>Of the total complaints about operational or planned wind farms, 40 came from Victoria, and 23 from each of South Australia and New South Wales. Just two complaints were received from Queensland about planned farms.</p>
<p>Our <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0076584">study</a> found records of only 129 people who had ever complained about wind farms since the first one was built in Western Australia in the 1980s. </p>
<p>Three years later, after the door is left open for complaints, a mere 90 are received from an unknown number of individuals.</p>
<h2>Wind turbines and sickness?</h2>
<p>This is all very awkward for those who argue wind turbines cause illness. How is it that if wind farms are a direct cause of illness, that 67 wind farms around the country (88%) saw not one complaint, about health or anything else across a whole year? </p>
<p>The stock answer given here by wind farm opponents is that wind farm illness is like sea sickness: only a few get it. So in the whole of two states, and across 88% of wind farms, there’s apparently no-one with susceptibility to wind farm illness. </p>
<p>Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, who described wind farms as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-12/tony-abbott-launches-another-attack-against-wind-farms/6541952">“ugly”, “noisy” and “visually awful”</a>, threw the senate committee a giant political bone.</p>
<p>The committee, and the Office of the Wind Farm Commissioner, put up their “we’re open” shingle and invited the alleged throngs of suffering rural residents to air their problems. </p>
<p>This annual report shows very few did, and the great majority of “complaints” dissolved by being sent information.</p>
<p>This sorry episode in appeasing the wind farm obsessions of a tiny number of cross-bench senators needs to have its time called, fast.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Have the hordes of wind farm complainers all gone shy?Simon Chapman, Emeritus Professor in Public Health, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/673292016-10-19T16:43:01Z2016-10-19T16:43:01ZWhy do wind farms drag down house prices in some places but not others?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142355/original/image-20161019-20340-wqvak4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Whitelee wind farm near Glasgow.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/amagee3/6702100955/in/photolist-bdf27K-dxWjRt-7QN6kD-9fK23X-dy2Ynh-76h514-7Pp5iJ-dy2Wvu-dxWxk2-73GgGK-dxWkP8-76m4YS-7QReBW-7QRsim-76h5bR-76h5o8-dxWvEi-dy2Mxf-8NvXBZ-8KaCCi-aCVjBF-8NyPzN-dxWp9D-dy2QdA-82EJ3Q-8Nw5qZ-8Nz8uU-9EsVZX-8Nz5VA-dxWhnB-8NvEFB-8NyWTU-8Nw1KZ-8NyMCs-8NvW2B-96EQBz-8NvCja-dy2LSC-8NyVd9-cc2pE7-8NyRD3-8NyTh5-8Nvzfv-73Lf4f-8NvT8c-8Nz1ds-sp6kf3-8Nw4wR-aCVkyT-8Nvwaa">Andy Magee</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two years ago, the London School of Economics delivered bad news to the renewables industry. It published a <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/58422/1/__lse.ac.uk_storage_LIBRARY_Secondary_libfile_shared_repository_Content_SERC%20discussion%20papers_2014_sercdp0159.pdf">research paper</a> that showed that house price appreciation was significantly reduced by being near wind farms in England and Wales. This overturned previous work in both the <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-6362e.pdf">US</a> and <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.3846/1648-715X.2008.12.251-269">UK</a> which had found no robust evidence of a negative effect. </p>
<p>But what about Scotland? With emptier countryside and stronger winds, not to mention a more pro-renewables government, more than twice as much onshore wind power capacity <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-which-parts-of-the-uk-are-windy-enough-for-windfarms">has been</a> built north of the border than in England. Until now, nobody had attempted a robust empirical study of the effect on Scottish house prices – despite some anecdotal claims of a negative impact. </p>
<p><a href="http://bit.ly/2e6eD3A">We set out to discover</a> whether there was evidence to support these claims, using similar methods to the LSE study. But <a href="http://www.climatexchange.org.uk/reducing-emissions/impact-wind-farms-property-prices/">our results</a> suggest the impact is very different in Scotland. </p>
<h2>Turbine testing</h2>
<p>We looked at 500,000 house transactions compared to the 1.7m that LSE looked at in England and Wales. The graph below shows the overall house price trends for houses in Scotland that can and can’t see wind turbines. The blue line is houses that can see them and the red line is those that can’t. The fact that the blue line lies slightly below the red line suggests that wind turbines in Scotland tend to be built in areas where housing prices are low – not surprising, since they tend to be built in rural areas where land is relatively cheap. </p>
<p><strong>Change in house prices 1990-2014</strong></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142343/original/image-20161019-20298-xu9sj7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142343/original/image-20161019-20298-xu9sj7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142343/original/image-20161019-20298-xu9sj7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142343/original/image-20161019-20298-xu9sj7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142343/original/image-20161019-20298-xu9sj7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142343/original/image-20161019-20298-xu9sj7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142343/original/image-20161019-20298-xu9sj7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142343/original/image-20161019-20298-xu9sj7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gwilym Pryce</span></span>
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<p>The fact that the two lines move in parallel means their <a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/988239/WindBlog_Note_relative%20value.txt">relative value</a> has remained stable despite the rapid growth of turbine construction (see the graph below). If turbines had a major negative effect on house price appreciation, we would expect these two lines to diverge – they didn’t. </p>
<p><strong>Cumulative number of wind turbines in Scotland 1995-2014</strong></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142344/original/image-20161019-20340-be3egg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142344/original/image-20161019-20340-be3egg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142344/original/image-20161019-20340-be3egg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142344/original/image-20161019-20340-be3egg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142344/original/image-20161019-20340-be3egg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142344/original/image-20161019-20340-be3egg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142344/original/image-20161019-20340-be3egg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142344/original/image-20161019-20340-be3egg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gwilym Pryce</span></span>
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<p>When we factored in a house’s distance from the wind farm, we found that the house price effect was essentially zero up to 4km. With houses where turbines were visible 4km to 5km away, there was actually a slight benefit of circa 1% to people’s house prices. By contrast, the LSE study found that in England, house prices grew between 5% and 6% more slowly when properties were within 2km of a visible wind farm. </p>
<p>We identified a couple of factors from the LSE approach that might have affected applying it to Scottish data. The LSE’s researchers calculated distance from a house’s postcode to the centre of a wind farm, but some wind farms are more spread out in Scotland than England so a house could be a long way from the centre but close to a peripheral turbine. </p>
<p>LSE also relied on undulations in the natural landscape to determine which wind turbines were in the line of sight, and ignored the height of the built environment. We factored both these things into our methodology to see if they made any difference in Scotland, but our results essentially remained the same. </p>
<h2>What to make of it</h2>
<p>The first question is, why might wind farms have a positive effect on certain house prices in Scotland? One possibility is that wind farms <a href="http://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ913167">may boost</a> local economic activity by providing employment and other economic and leisure benefits to local communities. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.whiteleewindfarm.com">Whitelee wind farm</a> near Glasgow, for example, provides 130km of tracks for walkers, cyclists, horse riders and dog walkers, and <a href="http://www.pfr.co.uk/cloich/15/Wind-Power/23/Tourism/">attracted</a> 25,000 visitors in the first two months. Also, some energy companies have provided community funds, such as the £17.5m SSE fund for the <a href="http://www.southlanarkshire.gov.uk/info/200168/getting_involved_in_your_community/571/sse_clyde_wind_farm_fund">Clyde wind farm</a> in South Lanarkshire. It is conceivable that this boost to local demand could lead to a positive effect on house prices. </p>
<p>Second, why are the results different to those in England and Wales? It could be a question of different attitudes to wind farms. Two surveys from around the same time last year <a href="https://fullfact.org/economy/what-do-brits-think-about-wind-farms/">indicate</a> that Scots are <a href="http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2400139/poll-scots-want-more-wind-power">slightly keener</a> on more onshore wind farms being developed, 71% in favour versus 65% for the UK as a whole. </p>
<p>Another reason might be that in Scotland, a much higher proportion of turbines are built on moors and mountains where the value of alternative uses of the land may be relatively low compared with desirable farmland locations in England and Wales. </p>
<p>Either way, it suggests the relationship between house prices and wind turbines is far from straightforward. More work is needed to understand why different places might be affected differently. But the message for now is this: living near a wind farm in England may temper your house price growth, but in Scotland the effect is likely to be zero and may even be positive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67329/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gwilym Pryce is on the Economic Advisory Panel for Defra. He was a consultant to the Glasgow Solicitors Property Centre, computing their quarterly house price index, from 2002-2016. This research project received funding from the Scottish government via ClimateXChange and the ESRC. </span></em></p>Just when you thought wind farms were bad for house prices everywhere, a new piece of research from Scotland suggests otherwise.Gwilym Pryce, Professor of Urban Economics and Social Statistics and Director of the Sheffield Methods Institute, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.