Census data tells immigration story: experts

Increased participation in the workforce, a boost in people with a postgraduate degree and more community and personal service workers can all be linked back to Australia’s immigration program and rapidly growing population says demographer and population researcher Ernest Healy. The latest data from…

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Census collectors walk the streets of Sydney for the 2011 Census. AAP

Increased participation in the workforce, a boost in people with a postgraduate degree and more community and personal service workers can all be linked back to Australia’s immigration program and rapidly growing population says demographer and population researcher Ernest Healy.

The latest data from the 2011 Census reveals Australia’s unskilled workforce is on the decline, there’s been a 52.8% jump in people with a postgraduate degree since the 2006 Census, and more Australians are employed in the health care and social assistance industry than ever before.

Dr Healy, who is a research fellow in the Centre for Population and Urban Research at Monash University, said all of these trends could be linked back to Australia’s immigration program.

“Even in the face of serious economic decline, the Rudd Government broke with the historic pattern of Australian governments (in difficult times) and pushed net overseas migration to extraordinarily high levels,” Dr Healy said.

He added that immigrants as a group were more skilled than the general Australian population.

“The skill level of the population in general is signficantly due to the selection process for immigration,” Dr Healy said.

International migration is likely to be a factor in the jump in people with a postgraduate degree said Nick Parr, associate professor in demography at Macquarie University.

“Migrants into Australia have tended to have higher levels of education than the already resident population,” Professor Parr said.

The data also showed an increase in workforce participation, particularly among older women.

“Participation rates have gone up significantly more in the later working ages than the younger working ages,” Professor Parr said.

“This more even balancing of the participation patterns of older and younger working age people should help to reduce the extent to which population ageing is a concern,” Professor Parr said.

Dr Healy said the participation rate contributes significantly to the growth of the labour force and needs to be taken into account when the government sets the scale of the immigration program.

He added that the Census data told a story of “immigration begetting immigration”, with an increasing population creating skills shortages in some areas that then creates an argument for further immigration.

Dr Healy said Australia was becoming economically dependent on a growing population, locked on a “treadmill” that didn’t necessarily result in a more knowledge-intensive or productive economy.

“Once you become economically dependent on this pathway of development for growth it’s hard to adopt a different direction without serious dislocation.

“It’s in our interest to look at ways to reorient our economy and get off the treadmill.”

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13 Comments sorted by

  1. STABLE POPULATION PARTY

    Written & authorised by William Bourke, Sydney

    'He added that the Census data told a story of “immigration begetting immigration”, with an increasing population creating skills shortages in some areas that then creates an argument for further immigration.'

    So true! This is what I identified with my analysis of the 2010 DIAC statistics and so called 'skills shortage' which was subsequently published in the Sydney Morning Herald. In summary:
    "Only about 47,000 - or one in four - of Australia's permanent migrants are bringing designated skills…

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  2. Linus Bowden

    management consultant

    I really wish the headline writers here would stop using the word "experts". Scholars do not refer to "experts". Whenever I hear/read "experts", I instantly hear the blundering Sandra Silly messing up the Channel 10 news autocue.

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  3. Linus Bowden

    management consultant

    The great Australian immigration success story is attributable to John Howard. After 14 years of Labor corrupting our immigration system by using it as a form of ALP Right branch-stacking, our cities were becoming sink holes of unskilled, uneducated peasants from Lebanon's Bekka Valley and their never-ending extended families. Howard put a stop to this, insisting on educated and skilled migrants from a much more diverse geographic and cultural pool. Overnight, Howard swapped unemployed muslim peasants for ambitious, energetic, and educated Chinese and Indians, and other Asians. Rudd-Gillard have had the good sense to stick with the Howard strategy, hopefully burying the Keating way for good.

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  4. Dale Bloom

    Analyst

    “He added that the Census data told a story of “immigration begetting immigration”, with an increasing population creating skills shortages in some areas that then creates an argument for further immigration.”

    This is what is commonly called "ponzi demography", and every country that has based its economy around ponzi demography has eventually crashed.

    Australians are too dumb to learn.

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    1. Stiofán Mac Suibhne

      Contrarian / Epistemologist

      In reply to Dale Bloom

      I am unfamiliar with the phenomenon of 'ponzi demography'. Which counties have collapsed as a result?

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  5. Patrick Brownlee

    Research Manager

    While I think some of the analysis in the article is superficial, the comments are lacking seriously in understanding the policy shifts in migration before and during John Howard. There were a series of government reports commissioned by Labor, from Bob Hawke in 1987, most notably the Fiztgerald Report, to the 1994 Karpin Report on skills and diversity in the population, to a wholesale shift in the migration points system and intake that saw skilled migration overtake family migraiotn well before…

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    1. Linus Bowden

      management consultant

      In reply to Patrick Brownlee

      Patrick, they will only cause offence to people who so brazenly run interference for Labor's notoriously Sinophobia going back to the late 19th century. And the irony of you mentioning the Fitzgerald Report. Fitzgerald recommended dumping multiculti and cutting back on Asian immigration. The irony of you mentioning Howard's comment shows you are not serious about the history. Howard was in fact quoting from that very Fitzgerald Report. Hawke used that as a opportunity to silence the Fitzgerald Report…

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    2. Dale Bloom

      Analyst

      In reply to Patrick Brownlee

      When a country reaches the situation of having to bring in more immigrants to provide services to immigrants, then it has a well established ponzi demography industry.

      The following gives an overview of ponzi demography.

      “According to Ponzi demography, population growth — through natural increase and immigration — means more people leading to increased demands for goods and services, more material consumption, more borrowing, more on credit and of course more profits. Everything seems fantastic for a while — but like all Ponzi schemes, Ponzi demography is unsustainable.

      When the bubble eventually bursts and the economy sours, the scheme spirals downward with higher unemployment, depressed wages, falling incomes, more people sinking into debt, more homeless families — and more men, women and children on public assistance. “

      http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=8321

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  6. Andrew Smith

    Education Consultant at Australian & International Education Centre

    Not surprised that several cliches have been mentioned e.g. "ponzi demography" while ignoring fact that yes the world's population is increasing now, but growth will only be occurring in sub Saharan Africa by 2050.

    Population growth is not just an Australian quantitative issue, but qualitative and is a boon for diversity (including genetic), creativity, renewal and the skills that immigrants bring e.g. as we have already, languages for the "Asian Century". However, Australia seems to do everything…

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    1. Stiofán Mac Suibhne

      Contrarian / Epistemologist

      In reply to Andrew Smith

      I think there is a lack of balance on discussions on immigration in Australia in general. I get a sense that the debate in this thread is not particularly well informed. Seems that all sorts of unstated prejudice / political positions are determining perspectives and then there is some back filling with quotes / factoids. The white Australia policy seems to be the (migrant) elephant in the debate.... I would really like to know more about the 'ponzi demography' phenomenon and the resulting societal…

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    2. Dale Bloom

      Analyst

      In reply to Andrew Smith

      I would question the concept of “skilled worker”. A worker may have certain skills now, but demand for skills changes in time, and the skills currently held by a worker now, are unlikely to be the skills required in future decades.

      The education system has failed if it cannot build a skilled workforce from the current population.

      Our population is expected to increase by a median of 1.1% per year to 2050 if we continue with current immigration policies.

      This is almost entirely due to immigration, and if those policies continue, our population increases also.

      http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/lookup/4102.0main+features10jun+2010

      This means almost doubling the size of most major cities and towns in Australia, and I would think doubling of any unfunded liability debt Australia has, a doubling of environmental impact, a doubling of houseing demand, a doubling of infrastructure costs etc.

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