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Coalition widens gap

The latest Nielsen poll brings more bad news for Labor, with the Coalition increasing its two-party lead to 53-47%, a fall…

The Nielsen poll has more bad news for Kevin Rudd and Labor. AAP/Lukas Coch

The latest Nielsen poll brings more bad news for Labor, with the Coalition increasing its two-party lead to 53-47%, a fall in Kevin Rudd’s approval and Tony Abbott closing the gap as preferred PM.

A fortnight ago, the Coalition’s lead on a two party basis was 52-48%.

The latest poll shows a 3 percentage point swing to the opposition compared with the 2010 election and would deliver government with Labor losing about 10 seats (assuming the swing was uniform).

The ALP primary vote is down 2 points to 35% in a fortnight, according to the poll, reported in Fairfax Media. The Coalition is up a point to 47%.

Rudd’s approval is down 5 points to 43% and his disapproval is up 4 points to 51%. There has been little change in Abbott’s approval rating – it is down a point to 44%, while his disapproval is 52%. After Labor restoring Rudd to the leadership largely because of his electoral popularity, there is now virtually no difference in the two leaders' approval and disapproval ratings.

Rudd retains a narrow lead as preferred PM but has been pegged back. His rating fell 2 points to 48% while Abbott’s rose 3 points to 45%. The Greens are steady on 10% in the poll.

Tomorrow the campaign moves into its second last week, with the Liberals having their formal “launch” in Brisbane.

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64 Comments sorted by

  1. Ron Bowden

    Entropy tragic

    A more balanced article might list all poll results rather than just one that shows Labor to be sliding.

    For example, the latet Morgan poll shows the Coalition's two-party lead at 51-49%

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    1. David Stein

      Businessman

      In reply to Ron Bowden

      ... and the Essential Media poll from the 19th of August with Labor and the coalition tied at 50-50.

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    2. David Thompson

      Marketing Research

      In reply to Eddie Jensz

      Eddie, I'm not sure you should be blaming Michelle Grattan for the fact you never delivered critical reading skills any time during your life, and are still a slave to News Corp.

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    3. Eddie Jensz

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to David Thompson

      I haven't read a News Corp Newspaper or website in fifteen years so no I am not a slave to News Corp. What I believe is that mainstream journalists are just that.

      That Grattan refers to the Neilsen's poll in this article is not the point here what the point really is that in the articles which I have read here by Grattan I have read her endless references to both Newspoll and the other polls.

      What I said is that "My own view is that these continuous polling practices, which I cannot believe are accurate or objective, are driving public opinion rather than gauging it."

      Murdoch's empire gets no direct finance from me and I am not slave to mainstream media because I seek my information elsewhere.

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    4. David Thompson

      Marketing Research

      In reply to Ron Bowden

      Ron, just on the front page of TC, in different articles, the results of every single polling outfit in the country, are being analysed - Morgan, Newspoll, Essential, Nielsen, and so on.

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    5. Chris Harper

      Engineer

      In reply to Eddie Jensz

      You said: "Michelle Grattan has spent too many long lunches with the minions of Murdoch and company"

      It's all the fault of Snowball, nothing to do with the current incumbents.

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    6. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to Ron Bowden

      To get some consistency with what trends are, you really need to stick with one poll for jumping from one to another might give you a variation in results but it would be the old story of comparing apples with oranges.
      Now sure Morgan and Essential or whatever might show something a bit different but if it's a trend that is best to see, then it's not apples for Kevin and perhaps more lemons than oranges.
      Seems the guy could be a bit like Tony wrote up for WCs, all cremated, dead and buried or at least seems as though that could be what the future will hold and there could be a lot of champers getting ordered in the next couple of weeks and a few wakes being organised.

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    7. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to David Stein

      Five days ago David and as a businessman, you would know about getting up to date info and trending using consistency of data.

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    8. John Whelan

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Ron Bowden

      A more balanced reply might accept the inevitable, that the Australian Public can't wait for September 7 to get rid of these incompetent clowns. With the collapse of over 20,000 businesses in the past two years, Labor has created plenty of 'ex-workers'.

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    9. John Whelan

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Neville Mattick

      The ABC leans Left or didn't you realise that? They are simply reporting the facts that will be known to all of us at about 7.30pm on September 7.

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    10. John Whelan

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Eddie Jensz

      From where do you get your 'unbiased information'? If not the Right-leaning Murdoch Press, then perhaps, the Left-leaning Fairfax media or the Left-leaning ABC? They are all biased one way or another.

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    11. John Whelan

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Chris Harper

      This is all very funny, I have always thought of Michelle Grattan as Left-leaning.

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    12. Eddie Jensz

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to John Whelan

      I do not seek any news and information from the mainstream media because I find them all unreliable. The Internet is a wonderful tool with a plethora of other methods from which one can draw information . Most of the credible information that I trust and read comes from blogs which are from peole on the spot without the filter of an editor's point of view. Try it some time you may be surprised.

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    13. Janeen Harris

      chef

      In reply to John Whelan

      Will we be swapping to a bunch of irresponsible, incompetent clowns? There is more to life than money.

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  2. James Hill

    Industrial Designer

    If the Palace Eunuchs of the Press, politicians in hiding,( as Edmund Burke implied by calling them the Fourth Estate), succeed in their aims of "stealing" this election then, let them be assured, there will be consequences.
    Consequences of the "direct" democracy kind.
    The result speculated upon above will, be recognised as an atrocity against Australia's proud record as a world leading democracy, and there will be a backlash.
    Just so the eunuchs know what they will bringing down upon themselves should the objectives of their blatant pro-coalition biases succeed.

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    1. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to James Hill

      What are you prattling on about Jimmy, you seeming to get evermore disjointed with thoughts.

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    2. Brett Bailey

      Self Employed

      In reply to James Hill

      Sooooo are you saying the polls are wrong? Or is it that they aren't reflective of peoples thinking? After all poll results come from answers people give. So is it the messenger that you are unhappy with again? What actually are you expecting from this election? If the majority of the electorate support Abbott are you saying that really they actually dont? LNP are going to be the new Government sometime within an hour and a half of the close of voting and who is going to enable that to happen - why the voting public of course. Thats what happend in our democracy - as opposed to whatever you think should happen. I think you need to get out more and meet with real people who have views that surprise surprise may not actually agree with yours - but fortunately for you and me and all of us - we have entitlement to our opinions and Governments stand or fall on them - as they should. It won't be too bad James Abbott will get Australia moving we will all benefit in the long run.

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    3. James Hill

      Industrial Designer

      In reply to Greg North

      Ditto Greg!
      Any original observations available from you or are you just a reactionary?

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    4. James Hill

      Industrial Designer

      In reply to Brett Bailey

      Yep the Polls are manipulated so as to affect public opinion.
      You do have an imagination?
      How did you ever survive so long without one, Brett?

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    5. John Whelan

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to James Hill

      Nobody is stealing anything. Labor have proved their incompetence over that past 6 years. Its time to give the other side a go.

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    6. James Hill

      Industrial Designer

      In reply to John Whelan

      Not ready yet, and that is the problem.
      Perhaps, like their supporters, they have done nothing and learned nothing since being bundled out of office.
      Learned nothing from two rejections in a row from the voting public .
      Done nothing to improve their capacity to govern, and burdened by the dull performances of their state counterparts, dismissing elected leaders and running their states into recession.
      What an amazing power for destruction Labor has?
      The fact that conservative politicians have…

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    7. James Hill

      Industrial Designer

      In reply to John Whelan

      Like Tony tried to run from the parliament?
      Like he walked or shuffled away from interviews?
      Or was it the infamous "Sh-t Happens" brain spasm when confronted by Mark Riley for an explanation of his comment on a soldier's death.
      Not ready yet, and in truth, never likely to be ready.
      Your product is faulty and proven to be not fit for purpose, yet still you and Brett, peddle it for all you are worth, while the wheels fall off.
      Only media bias has your preferred PM in the race.
      Do you read the magical cure section of the newspaper ads, perchance?
      There's one born every minute?

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    8. Brett Bailey

      Self Employed

      In reply to James Hill

      So I go back to my original question - Sooooo are you saying the polls are wrong? and not reflective of peoples thinking? Well thats all right then James Kevin Rudd will be PM still after about an hour and half after voting closes - I don;t know why you get yourself whipped up into a frenzy every time you read about all these false and wrong or misleading polls - after all you know better than others - probably becasue you have so much more imagination than say someone like me? Anyway what is your imaginary friend's point of view - do you both agree that polling is all wrong every one all of them - which begs the question where do YOU get your information?
      Its not imagination James that is needed in this country its a bit of initiative and integrity and a bit of honesty - something seeming lacking in the latest reported events of the glorious Leader - what's his name? Rudd Mark Two.

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    9. James Hill

      Industrial Designer

      In reply to Brett Bailey

      Now Brett, are you saying that corruption only occurs in the state Labor administrations?
      No of course not.
      Plenty of evidence that that problem is not a Labor monopoly.
      Similarly what makes you put so much "Faith", childish faith, in easily manipulated private polling, whose details of operation remain private, all breathlessly reported as "Voters" say this and "Voters" say that when no actual votes are being taken, only "Opinion" polls are being taken.
      Without being particularly religious…

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  3. Lee Emmett

    Guest House Manager

    No wonder the polls are going gangbusters.
    The Captain's policy 'launch' will be happening soon.
    Further details of a LNP's flagship policy.
    A Flotilla of Clunkers.
    Trade is about to go bananas.
    Australian police arrive Indonesia.
    Comb the beaches and ports for leaky boats.
    A bi-lateral trade deal signed, sealed and delivered.
    By the Captain himself.
    Leaky fishing boats everywhere.
    A 3-star General with the national cheque book.
    Containers ships full of suppositories.
    To plug the leaks.
    In the boats?
    Or in the asylum policy?
    Where will the boats be resettled?
    Offshore, or in Australia?
    Our Navy, waiting for the Captain's call.
    No need to stop the boats.
    Australia will acquire them.
    Saul Eslake is happy.
    A balanced budget.
    A $40 billion black hole.
    Plugged.
    Another 'Real Solution'.

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    1. Thomas Liszt

      Systems analyst

      In reply to Lee Emmett

      I liken Aussie journo's to the crew of the Titanic. Blissfully going about their business re-arranging deck chairs. Excuse me Sir, here is the champaigne you ordered, would you like a poll with that!

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    2. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to Lee Emmett

      At least you're sticking with your great leader Lee, and it shows how easy it is for you to keep up with the unravelling.
      It's probably a bit like climate change and you could even find planting trees rather relaxing, sitting back and watching them grow even more so and then the euphoria of hugging them will have you over the moon.

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    3. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to Thomas Liszt

      You have no idea of what might have been happening on the Titanic do you Thomas and what you say is a great slight against the many who were lost in that great tragedy.
      You ought to take that rubbishy thought back to the IA mob with you.

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    4. Chris Harper

      Engineer

      In reply to Ronald Ostrowski

      Ronald,

      No, you don't understand, Murdoch doesn't actually exist. It is Snowball, Snowball and Emmanuel Goldstein. They got together and invented the guy just so they could sabotage Aussoc at every turn.

      Don't get fooled by those who claim he actually exists, they are just dupes.

      Repeat after me, Four legs good, two legs baaaad.

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    5. Thomas Liszt

      Systems analyst

      In reply to Greg North

      FYI, dear misguided soul. A slight enhencement to my previous observation.
      I liken Aussie journo's to the crew of the Titanic. Blissfully going about their business re-arranging deck chairs. Excuse me Sir, here is the champaigne you ordered, compliments from Captain Murdoch, first officer Palmer and Purser Rinehart, also would you like a poll with that!
      Note: Explanation for the un-initiated and un-informed, Palmer's project Titanic II.
      Go back to sleep. Bye!

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    6. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to Ronald Ostrowski

      " We have the Independent Australia, "
      Ronald, you see this where the rot starts for whilst I can understand that your Indo mob will have views and people with similar views will likely flock there, it seems as though it is you and collegues that get brainwashed into believing everyone else is being brainwashed by MSM etc.
      There are so many different views in MSM if you care to really peruse some of them and even here on TC you get so many different articles about both sides of the major parties…

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    7. Thomas Liszt

      Systems analyst

      In reply to Greg North

      G'day mate.
      Being fact impaired, obnoxious and often silly those are attributes of yours posters here have come to expect, but getting melodramatic? That's a new one.
      Cheers

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    8. James Hill

      Industrial Designer

      In reply to Greg North

      You are the acme of confected moral outrage, Greg.
      Since that event, more than a century ago, close to one hundred million people have died violent, unnatural deaths.
      But that for you and "everyone else" that one "great tragedy" is sacrosanct?
      So who is your favourite actor from your favourite movie Greg, Leo or Kate, or perhaps it's the singing of Celine?

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    9. Brett Bailey

      Self Employed

      In reply to Greg North

      IN terestinglky enough Greg - if you express any view that is contrary to the "line" espoused by a particular author - almost totally directed against abbott or the LNP - there is no pretext of unviased reporting there - your comments are not published - even if they contain referenced facts - so my view is that IA is a collection of group think mentality people with a "hate" approach and I really gave some thought ot use of hate but it is seriously a strange site with no dissent ot the group think ideas tolerated. They talk about MSM etc but seriously it is an astonishing site practising the same behaviours ascribed to MSM but even more so. - Having said that its good for a bit of light reading.

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    10. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to Brett Bailey

      I just had a quick peek once Brett seeing as Ronald had been promoting it so heavily and a quick peek was all that was necessary to see IA is quite something else, kind of even far left of the most left leaning, I'd not mind betting you need to be recommended by signed up members of the Communist party to get a look in.
      It is kind of laughable that so many of their ilk drift to somewhere that they detest to see anything reported on reasonably.

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  4. Greg North

    Retired Engineer

    I suggested a couple of weeks back there could be a majority of around twenty and now it seems I may have underestimated.
    The trending would seem to indicate that we might just see something of an even larger rout in a couple of weeks.

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    1. Brett Bailey

      Self Employed

      In reply to Greg North

      All polls now are trending towards LNP and away from ALP. Still we see the messenger getting shot and some failing to recall which media outlets are Murdoch or otherwise - because even the otherwise media institutions are all headed in the same LNP to succeed trajectory. Now you would have to think that if all the polls and all the media outlets and most of the population are showing a trend positive election outcome for LNP that those of us with full sensory faculties can reasonably make up our own minds - some however find the concept of voters voting out parties which as we had these past 6 years masqueraded as the Federal Government as a slight against democracy - got to wander what they are thinking?

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    2. Ronald Ostrowski

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Brett Bailey

      Brett, here is what I am thinking. Just what sort of creature Tony Abbott is, with his anger management issues, his sexism and overall shallowness in areas of policy and coyness about his cuts and costings, can be easily ascertained by his obviousness. But what kind of beast are all of those Australians who think he should be PM? Just what sort of critter are those journalists who so very attentively listen to all of his false three word slogans and lies, and then dutifully report them at the expense of the Government’s positive messages? Just who are these people, and what just what goes on in their skulls? I seriously need to know. Maybe Murdoch is smugly proving his clout by applying the old Goebbels doctrine here in good old Oz while overseas he is being lampooned as a disgusting slime ball.

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    3. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to Ronald Ostrowski

      " Brett, here is what I am thinking. Just what sort of creature Tony Abbott is, with his anger management issues, his sexism and overall shallowness in areas of policy and coyness about his cuts and costings, can be easily ascertained by his obviousness. "
      Tony Abbott is pretty much as close to a knockabout Aussie larrikin as you're ever likely to get as a PM Ronald, certainly no creature and a guy who has been a long time member of SLSA, a local CFA unit, and at 55 years of age he still does cycling…

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    4. Neville Mattick
      Neville Mattick is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Grazier: ALP Member at A 4th Generation Grazing Station

      In reply to Greg North

      It is interesting Greg to hear the LNP Campaign launch on NEWS Radio - the Nationals leader just spoke and key in his piece was first and foremost promotion and support of Mining (COAL and CSG principally).

      Further down the list was 'Farmers' which shows the significance in Rural and Regional Australia of those that support the LNP via the National Party, one which has been remarkably absent during the campaign.

      Mark my words that within six months of an LNP win (Federally) there will be substantial…

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    5. Ron Bowden

      Entropy tragic

      In reply to Greg North

      Greg, you despise Rudd. I get that. And you wax lyrical about Abbott. I get that too.
      What I don't get is how an apparently intelligent person can see only one side of an issue. That is, you see only bad with Rudd and good with Abbott.

      Whether you choose to argue this or not, it's obvious to anyone reading your many and often lengthy posts. Usually to refute and denigrate someone who dares say something not detrimental about Labor or Rudd.

      Please try for some balance.

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    6. James Hill

      Industrial Designer

      In reply to Brett Bailey

      Polls built on polls built on polls, the new democracy?
      But sorry, Brett, you don't recognise the concept do you?
      Now why, more than two centuries ago, did the politician Edmund Burke fell a need to coin the term "Fourth Estate" in reference to the power of the unelected politicians in the parliamentary press gallery?
      Not on your planet Brett?
      It does tend to look that way.
      Because we are supposed to be civil on this site, I won't call you a Pratt, though the temptation is large.

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    7. Brett Bailey

      Self Employed

      In reply to Ronald Ostrowski

      Okay so just to summarise Ronald
      - Abbott is a creature, has anger management issues, is sexist, is shallow on details, is a beast, has false slogans, tells lies.
      - Journalists are critters, report falshoods,ignore positive Goivernment messages, things go on in their skulls, apply Goebbels doctrine
      - Murdoch is lampooned as a slime ball
      - Rudd/Gillard/Rudd are what? We have seen anger management issues and none have been attributable to Abbott. Sexism - well what c an I say about Peter Slipper…

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    8. Brett Bailey

      Self Employed

      In reply to James Hill

      Yep I get you hate the polls because they are showing a trend that you find incomprehensible and that apparently are based on so many Australians apparently have no though process - but guess what James they will all get to vote on Saturday 7 September and there will be a chang of Government because of mass hypnosis wrought upon the nation.
      That you and I can talk about it would seem to indicate that hasn't happened actually - just accept that democracy is at work - forget the conspiracy theory…

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    9. Greg North

      Retired Engineer

      In reply to Ron Bowden

      " Please try for some balance. "
      Well Ron, if you refer to my recent lengthy reply to Ronald, you might note that Ronald made reference to a few categories of people as creatures, critters or beasts and I was questioning that approach more so than seeing Rudd as despicable though I have suggested Ronald nay have been confused re need for anger management.

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    10. James Hill

      Industrial Designer

      In reply to Brett Bailey

      Now Brett, Murdoch supporting Rudd did not stop Howard from being a man who overstayed his welcome, after eleven years.
      So after only six years, Murdoch's support, of a person that he employed as a young man, hardly equates to the Howard scenario.
      Again the sensible situation, given Australia's massive personal debt, is not to elect an austerity government which will cause a national recession on top of the state recessions already in place.
      Three more years of an administration that can pass…

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    11. COLIN BENJAMIN

      DIRECTOR GENERAL, 'Life. Be in it.'

      In reply to Brett Bailey

      Brett,
      The media managed polls do not accurately reflect the trends of those who refuse to answer robopolls. Even the latest Newspoll does not trend towards the 2 party preferred assumption that people will vote as directed by media owners. See my comment to Michelle Grattan outlined earlier on this post
      Surely the AEC should open a public inquiry into the necessity to follow the ban on pre-poll advertising with a ban on pre-poll polling. As stated in offshore comments on this phenomenal the real…

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    12. Ron Bowden

      Entropy tragic

      In reply to Greg North

      Sorry Greg, when a post is novella length, like many others, I'll skim it to get the sense of it, but that's all.

      I might question Ronald's approach as well, but I'm curious as to what this has to do with me asking you for balance.

      I'd like to see you - and others - recognise the good and bad of all of them. Admittedly, the bad outweighs the good in all cases, but we're dealing with politicians, aren't we?

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    13. Brett Bailey

      Self Employed

      In reply to James Hill

      Austerity? hmmm okay so we elect Rudd - and we get what exactlyt? You see I have a bit of an issue with getting back into the Black up until November then December ummmm maybe not - although our Pm had said failure is not an option - we will be back in surplus no if's no buts. So Surplus in Novemebr deficit in January of $7 Billion - February or was it MArch it was up to $19 Billion in the red and come may we were $30 billion in the red? WHAT the?? - Did you not think it a tad odd to have gone down…

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    14. Brett Bailey

      Self Employed

      In reply to COLIN BENJAMIN

      People vote according to the disaster they see unfolding every day for the past 6 years - you see the ALP hope the majority of voters suffer a severe case of amnesia. Its not the media to balme for the debarcle that has been Labor these past 6 years - do you put any credence in the words uttered by ALP Ministers in their assessment of Rudd - or what about the white anting of Gillards election run in 2010 - or the ocnstant pushing and pulling inside the party - how many leadership ballots were there - seriously get a grip - it isnt the medua creating the disaster that is the ALP it is the ALP luminaries themselves that have created the news. INstead of blaming someone else - how about get a mature look at what has happened the past 6 years and oimt the finger at the ALP they have been their own worst enemies.

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    15. James Hill

      Industrial Designer

      In reply to Brett Bailey

      Adult voters, Brett, as opposed to those thoughtlessly barracking for their team, will prefer that the legislation put in place by the "BIG BAD GOVERNMENT" ( was that aimed at your mental age Brett?) not be vandalised and wrecked by economic incompetence (ask Peter Costello about Abbott's economic competence and work ethic).
      Think The Royal Commission into Child Abuse, is that under threat ?
      If you are judging by those private polls then good luck to you. there will plenty of shonks heading your way to deprive you of your savings.
      We certainly don't need shonky private polling to tell us who the business frauds will be voting for, it's always Labor, eh Brett?
      Can't you practice your "blind faith" in private, adults find it borders on embarrassment.

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  5. COLIN BENJAMIN

    DIRECTOR GENERAL, 'Life. Be in it.'

    Michelle,

    Surely the AEC should open a public inquiry into the necessity to follow the ban on pre-poll advertising with a ban on pre-poll polling. As stated in offshore comments on this phenomenal the real danger is the political parties' links with polling companies, a nexus that can be employed to project a certain party by loading front page reporting of an outcome that can be potentially damaging for the country's democratic credentials

    Analysis of elector responses to the political advertising…

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    1. James Hill

      Industrial Designer

      In reply to Brett Bailey

      Let's behave like adults, Brett.
      The private polls affect the real vote and are able to be manipulated.
      Fine by you?

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  6. Jack Arnold

    Polymath

    Well, Toxic RAbbott is on record from 2010 as saying that he would sell his arse to whoever would make him Prim Monster and it appears that Rupert has taken up his offer. No wonder that Wendy flew the matrimonial coop.

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    1. Brett Bailey

      Self Employed

      In reply to Jack Arnold

      oh yeah whose record is it that he is on saying that? And why do you have to introduce Murdochs ex wife into your rant - its appalling to say the least that you should choose such a low path to take to try and score some petty point. If you have any argument worth putting forward - then do so - to stoop so low is clear you have nothing worthy of speaking about - which pretty much sums up Federal Labors last 6 years in office - there is nothing they want to run on in this election - they have no record

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    2. James Hill

      Industrial Designer

      In reply to Brett Bailey

      Well Abbott worked for the Big Rupe as a teenager, Brett.
      So the relationship has been a long one.
      Long enough to know what Rupe wants for his political support.
      Australians don't like suck-ups to power and authority.
      On balance Abbott knows how to suck up.
      What's your recommendation Brett?
      Does it work?
      Obsequious little toadies have never succeeded before?
      Or they just don't like to talk about it?

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  7. John Q Citizen, Aussie

    Administrator

    Say it often enough and folks will believe you, or what you repeat.

    Interestingly, T Abbott has a lot of 'positives' just ask him, he'll tell you. yet Rudd opens up and its all lies etc etc etc. The media seems to be running as many of these opinion polls as it can, almost hourly on various topics like, "Is Tony Abbott a good bloke" Would you vote for a good bloke? Would you like to vote for a good bloke? IF you met a good bloke in the street would it be Tony Abbott? Then on the next tv or radio news 'yet another' How MR Wonderful Tony Abbott is expected to be the next PM of Australia.
    Perhaps Ms Grattan could dare to contemplate an article that is not pro Tony Abbott for once and show some balance?

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