With its revamped Pacific Solution, the Australian government has decided to make the choice to take a boat to Australia more horrendous in its implications, by increasing the likelihood of disasters at sea, and then punishing those who manage to survive the crossing.
But nothing has been done on two critical fronts – addressing the conditions that create refugees; and providing alternatives that break the incentive cycle promoted by the government and opposition, and facilitated by the people smugglers.
As the child of refugees who survived through the venal self-interest of people smugglers two generations ago, I am particularly aware of the contradictions involved.
The application of some cognitive theory and economic choice theory may help understand what is really going on; and why government and opposition are playing a doomed game they cannot win.
Cognitive dissonance and sunk cost
The concept of cognitive dissonance may be helpful in understanding the social psychology of asylum seekers who have entered the smuggler chain. This approach also throws light on the policy assumptions of government about the ways in which smuggler “business models” may be most effectively disrupted, thus interrupting the flow of asylum seekers to Australia.
Cognitive dissonance has been described as the “mental discomfort provoked by trying to believe two mutually contradictory propositions”. More strictly, it refers to the emotional investment people make in a particular belief, their tendency to try to line up belief and behaviour when the dissonance between them becomes salient. Somewhat counter-intuitively, beliefs will often adapt to justify behaviour, though interventions focused on the disjunction between behaviour and belief can “force” the process in the opposite direction.
In parallel to this cognitive state, there is what game and argumentation theory refers to as the “sunk-cost error”. This is the supposed irrationality of the observed tendency for people to stick with a behaviour even when it appears increasingly unlikely to produce the desired outcome or is very dangerous, and the original cost cannot be recovered no matter what their decision.
The psychological journey
Put this together in a simple narrative. A young man realises or is told by trusted others (family, senior community people) he is in mortal danger, so his family invests money in “buying” him an escape. Those who pick him up tell him he has no other option than to obey their instructions at every point.
His self-concept has been modified in a number of ways. He carries the responsibility for the positive outcome of his family’s investment which may be all they have. At every step, the smugglers “prove” they are trustworthy, thus reinforcing the self-concept of the individual as a survivor, an identity increasingly elaborated as that of an “asylum seeker” (though this may not be clarified until much later in the process).
He reaches the penultimate point in the voyage – Indonesia, probably – and his “objective” identity (in the form of papers) is removed or demonstrated to be no longer valid. His emotional investment in trusting the asylum seekers is huge, and every day his behaviour reinforces his new identity. He has no other trusted or credible sources of information. His heightened anxiety level will not allow him to modify his behaviour. In his mind, his survivor status now depends totally on the smuggler.
There are no accessible and testable competing sources of information that can reduce the anxiety through offering alternative pathways, other than those that would immediately “lose” the value of his family’s sunk investment.
The Australian government’s now even more corrupted Pacific Solution asks why he would not abandon the trip and apply to the UNHCR. Such a policy misses two features: the massive acquired anxiety resulting from months of managing cognitive dissonance; and the fact people will not acknowledge that their investment of money and time is a sunk cost.
Psychological interventions
So how can we help change asylum seeker behaviour?
First, we must accept that sunk cost is a factor which smugglers depend on for power over, and retention of, their clients. Recognition that the cost is lost will be a necessary but insufficient part of any intervention strategy.
Asylum seekers have a massive commitment to the belief that the sunk cost is not lost. The more the government messes with its policy, the clearer the balance skews towards the side adopted by the asylum seeker rather than that desired by the government.
A variety of interventions can address the cognitive dissonance problem. These include countering information from a credible source; providing a rational argument for behavioural change based on desired outcomes; and tapping the moral values of the asylum seekers. (Interestingly, The same dynamics could work on changing Australian attitudes towards asylum seekers).
The intervention is most useful where individuals are addressed in groups, when there is widely available accurate and positive information, and where they are induced to proselytise the desired changes to their peers.
This kind of approach can change behaviour remarkably quickly. False information that reinforces anxieties can have the opposite effect. However the effectiveness of the intervention (which is aimed at limiting the predisposition of asylum seekers to trust smugglers by getting onto unsafe boats) requires real changes so that the information provided is credible and accurate, sufficient to overcome the sunk cost factor.
What next?
There are three real changes that could be made that would help break the psychological cycle.
First, asylum seekers must be able to apply for refugee status while still in their home country, before they get tied up with people smugglers.
Second, a major Australian processing centre should be set up in Indonesia. If people fail this process, they will have little chance of any better outcome risking life and limb on the sea to arrive unlawfully in Australia. A small number will be tempted, but they will be paying premium rates and face almost guaranteed rejection and return.
Third, during waiting periods, intensive English programs, health checks and other identity building investment should be made available by government. Every effort should be made to ensure asylum seeking arrivals are in the best mental and physical shape to re-adjust to Australia, rather than ensuring they are in the worst shape we can produce.
A rational response
A debate that grapples with each element of the asylum seeking process is crucial.
The Houston panel went part of the way, but left many fragments unresolved. The government and opposition have plans that will only intensify the catastrophe under way. The Greens have also avoided key questions.
Now is the time to systematically, rationally and with a “least worst outcome” mindset, move on these issues. Calm, humane, intelligent policy trumps panicked, inhumane, dumb reactions every time.
Marilyn Shepherd
pensioner
What disjointed crap. Asylum seekers don't need to be told by anyone they are in danger, I reckon it's a pretty fair bet that when the likes of the Taliban send you a night note you are pretty sure you are in danger so you go looking for transport.
The absurd notion many in this country have that there are gangs around preying on people to force them to seek asylum is so ridiculous surely you can't possibly believe it. It is a legal right to seek asylum, it is a legal right to pay who ever…
Read moreAndrew Jakubowicz
Professor of Sociology and Codirector of Cosmopolitan Civil Societies Research Centre at University of Technology, Sydney
Your frustration at the current situation exemplifies the problem I am addressing: unless you have a proposal that addresses the issue of deaths at sea, you are not moving the debate forward. Australia has a shared obligation with other countries for finding a safe solution to the need for refuge. That need as you know will increase in the next few years as NATO withdraws and the situation in Afghanistan deteriorates. Refugee status is of course only available if you are without other protection…
Read moreJohn Phillip
John Phillip is a Friend of The Conversation.
Grumpy Old Man
What do you propose Marilyn? An open border policy? Who pays for the cost of supporting these people? If you open the borders and increase the 'pull' factors, aren't you just encouraging more boats? More boats equals more drownings and I thought the idea was to stop people drowning?
Marilyn Shepherd
pensioner
Andrew, people sail the 7 seas every day of the year in their millions, why do you buy into the crap that being on the sea is more dangerous than anything else they face.
There have been very few deaths at sea, while they pretend to care about the 900 or so who have drowned in the last 13 years they don't mention the 1 million or so dead in Iraq, the hundreds of thousands dead in Afghanistan, the tens of thousands slaughtered in Sri Lanka, the tens of thousands slaughtered in Syria and Libya…
Read moreWilliam Bruce
logged in via Facebook
Pt2
Prof AJ says
"my position is we should get them here without the danger of death at sea."
Why should we be "responsible" for people that risk their lives in foreign lands (where they were safe!) and get killed?
Do you think we ought have Cops or the Military posed at The Gap at Watsons Bay 24/7?
William Bruce
logged in via Facebook
Seems as with so-called "terrorism" we are dealing with the symptoms and not the cause.
Read moreProf. Andrew Jakubowicz notes. "nothing has been done on two critical fronts – addressing the conditions that create refugees; and providing alternatives that break the incentive cycle".
It follows we need to stop the "political meddling" and strife in these peoples home countries....and STOP the facilitating of Wars with arms trade & resources trade and other profiteers.
It is obscene how the wealthiest people…
William Bruce
logged in via Facebook
Prof AJ says
"my position is we should get them here without the danger of death at sea."
Well tell us how many do you thing should we should "get here"....200 million? 500 million? 1 Billion people?
And what do they do here? Can they then bring 20 relatives? What status will they have? Can they jump cue for Citizenship? Must they go home if no longer in danger?
Neil James
Executive Director, Australia Defence Association
As the relevant public-interest watchdog organisation for strategic security issues the Australia Defence Association has long argued that most discussion on asylum seeking and refugee policy has concentrated on the symptoms of the problem and not its causes.
Our comprehensive discussion paper tackling these complex issues can be found at http://www.ada.asn.au/publications/ada-discussion-papers/asylum-and-refugee-policy.html
Asylum and refugee issues are first and foremost a matter of strategic…
Read moreSean Lamb
Science Denier
"First, asylum seekers must be able to apply for refugee status while still in their home country, before they get tied up with people smugglers."
Read moreThat seems to be losing sight of what an asylum seeker is supposed. Not to sound stupid, but an asylum seeker is seeking asylum, ie in immediate danger. Now there might be some situations where an asylum seeker can stay residing in the country they claim is persecuting them - eg children denied access to higher education on ethnic grounds, lack of freedom…
Daniel Boase-Jelinek
logged in via Facebook
Thanks Andrew for providing this insight into the psychological journey of the asylum seekers, and reading it I was prompted to think about the psychological journey that the Australian community has been on ever since 'boat people' began to arrive on our shores.
It seems that we will never reach a humane and sustainable outcome until we explore both of these journeys further to understand why Australians are so fearful of asylum seekers and why our responses to their needs are becoming ever more damaging to them and to ourselves.
Sue Ieraci
Public hospital clinician
Good points, Daniel. Perhaps it is the passage of time that helps to settle this paranoia.
Let's look at history: WWII resulted in a large number of migrants, legitimately fearing for their lives and the future of their families, to falsify their identities, cross borders illegally and set up new lives in Australia. Many of these "reffos" were not welcomed at the time, but a number of these refugees, and their subsequent offspring, ahve become admired members of our society.
It might help the current situation if more of these ex-refugees came out to explain their situations and motivations at the time, and how they felt forced to flee by whatever means available.
Marilyn Shepherd
pensioner
It's not hard. The law is clear that generally signatory states assess the claims of those seeking asylum, they uphold their human rights as laid out in the refugee convention.
If Australia just stopped jailing them and upheld the law as we largely do for those who fly here and stopped this incessant whinge that it is difficult and complicated we would all be better off.
William Bruce
logged in via Facebook
Daniel says
"It seems that we will never reach a humane and sustainable outcome until we explore both of these journeys further to understand why Australians are so fearful of asylum seekers and why our responses to their needs are becoming ever more damaging to them and to ourselves."
I think, no, we will never reach a humane and sustainable outcome until we attain POLITICAL stability & justice & development in their home countries.
James Bush
primary teacher
Totally agree with Andrew Jak.
We need to address the deaths at sea and the causes behind them. Australia must clearly state that we will not allow anybody to stay here who hasn't been authorised through the appropriate UN refugee channels.
We should not offer a temptation that may result in death but instead guarantee that every single person arriving by boat will be sent back to their port of origin. The deaths at sea will then reduce drastically which is what we all want.
Felix MacNeill
Environmental Manager
Thanks for a useful article Andrew.
I was broadly under the impression that the Greens' policies, while not perfect, were significantly less bad than the 'alternatives' offered by Labor and Coalition. You say that the Greens have also avoided key questions. I'd be interested in an elaboration on this point and your thoughts on how the current policy might be improved.
Neil James
Executive Director, Australia Defence Association
Felix,
Your question underlies a key problem with public debate on this issue - the proclivity to look at the issues from only (or primarily) party-political viewpoints. This reinforces the tendency to discuss symptoms, not causes and solutions, and the blind alley of only looking at it as only a domestic policy issue.
All the political parties are both right and wrong on particular aspects of the overall issue. This occurs because they seek domestic electoral advantage in advocating a particular…
Read moreFelix MacNeill
Environmental Manager
Neil, I'm going to have to reply to myself to reply to you...
I'll check out that article you recommend - thanks.
But I find the implication in your first paragraph simplistic. Policy has to be created and set by government. Government has to be formed by political parties (at least at this stage!). The only way even the best informed and most responsible voters can choose in terms of any given issue which they consider important is to critically examine the policies of the parties on offer…
Read moreJulian de Ross
Company Director
Hi Neil, I read pretty much all of your ADA link/policy. It seems to boil down to this "Establish Australian National Interest and put policy in place to make it work". Your paper unpacks just about every detail of the situation, a lot of type mate.. and I felt like I was reading John Pilger for a while until I reached the bit about some kind of solution.. (which Pilger never gives).
Your gentle wording about 'strategic interest' can be decoded in terms of "national" interest. I would personally…
Read moreCaroline Wright
Retired Nurse Academic and Researcher
We and many, many other countries pay millions of dollars to the UN. Therefore it is not our Government's duty to set up all these measures in Indonesia to support asylum seekers it is the UN duty.
What about those persons who live in abject poverty while waiting their turn to come to Australia? We cannot afford to take all asylum seekers we are too 'population poor' to be able to afford to accommodate the sheer numberrs wanting to come to our country. We cannot afford to provide housing for the homeless so I can understand why Australians are reticient to accept the sheer numbers we have at present.
Those that are accepted do not do themselves any favours when the Australian public become aware that 89% of asylum seekers are still on Social Service Benefits 5 years after being granted residency status in our country.
We may be a large country but much of our land mass is arid so our population is limited by this very fact.
Marilyn Shepherd
pensioner
Actually it is not the UNHCR that protects refugees, they don't have any state in which to protect refugees.
It is states who protect refugees, 148 of them in fact.
Those who don't protect refugees are still supposed to uphold their basic human rights but most often don't which is why they move on.
The stupidity of lazy Australian's never ceases to amaze me.
And so what if 80% of refugees are still on social services after 5 years? You are talking about a few thousand people of the 650,000 unemployed so it's not like they make much of a difference.
Marilyn Shepherd
pensioner
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/bowens-asylum-line-is-illegal-20121126-2a3p0.html
WEll we should let people work instead of keeping them homeless.
And really dear? The sheer numbers? Of a few thousand?
You need to get a grip on reality.
There are 5 million tourists, 200,000 permanent migrants, 65,000 family reunion migrants, 350,000 foreign students and 180,000 temporary workers every year and you whinge about a few thousand refugees?
REally?
Are you completely braindead dear, or just another lazy, ignorant racist.
Aleksandra Hadzelek
Lecturer in Social and Political Change at University of Technology, Sydney
"Those that are accepted do not do themselves any favours when the Australian public become aware that 89% of asylum seekers are still on Social Service Benefits 5 years after being granted residency status in our country."
Caroline, I'm not sure I understand your argument here. Andrew's article and the previous ones in this series try to bring to public attention the fact that we do not provide proper integration and training services to the refugees, and by keeping them in indefinite detention for years, we contribute to their later struggles in restarting their lives properly, becoming economically self-sufficient etc. I would say Australians don't do themselves any favours.
Julian de Ross
Company Director
They might not make much difference to the big picture in Australia (though the figures for all this are asonishingly high) but they might make a BIG difference to say.. "a migration agent"?
John Clark
Manager
The flaw in Andrew's article is the assumption that the prospective client "believes he is in mortal danger". While this may be the case in some particular instances, it is more than likely to be the justification used to gain residency in Australia. The smugglers care not the motivation, but rather, do they have the fare? The mortal danger no longer exists on departing the country of origin. Signing up in Indonesia to defeat the entry laws makes them illegal immigrants on arrival in Australia.
Marilyn Shepherd
pensioner
It might in INdonesia but they can't get protection in Indonesia so they hide.
Why do you feel such pleasure out of trying to pretend they are criminals.
And we don't have any such thing as an illegal immigrant in Australia, we have not done since 1992
William Bruce
logged in via Facebook
John Clark notes
"The mortal danger no longer exists on departing the country of origin. Signing up in Indonesia to defeat the entry laws makes them illegal immigrants on arrival in Australia"
Seems clear it is really all about Immigration cue jumping AND as a hi wage Country we do not have the Industry or prospective industry for many more people....Is it not also really about more "consumers" & "taxpayers"? How will that help Oz in the long run?...
We need to IMMEDIATELY and genuinely help these people get stable & progressive Govts. and DEVELOP in their OWN Countries (of ANY colour for now )....this is the ONLY way to fix the the problem.
I also believe the World Bank & IMF have been a failure (if not a RORT) and they must be looked at VERY closely to see where the "development" money has gone!
Marilyn Shepherd
pensioner
And how William Bruce do you propose that Australia make the world safe.
Jesus wept, I don't believe the crude racist lunacy of some here.
David Donaldson
adult educator
Well, I was talking today to a hard working lady. She came from El Salvador a while back. She remembers clearly the sound and effect of missiles. That was indeed mortal danger.
Aleksandra Hadzelek
Lecturer in Social and Political Change at University of Technology, Sydney
Very interesting wording, John. Since when have we started calling refugees 'clients'? So this is what they are to you, aren't they?
And we're not discussing the smugglers here, by the way. Of course they only care about making profit. But often in the Australian public opinion we put smugglers and refugees in the same basket, effectively criminalising refugees, by creating a simplified equation that if refugees used smugglers to come to Australia, then they must be bad people and we should protect…
Read moreJulian de Ross
Company Director
For readers of Marylin. You must understand that Marylin has some kind of blockage in her cerebral cortex which prevents her from seeing anything bad about millions of hapless people coming to Australia in the name of 'assylum'. In other places, Marylin has to be brought kicking and screaming to even face the question. She is(or was) also a migration agent.
Read moreThe issue here is very simple. "Where to draw the line" between compassion and lunacy. John S. Mill expressed this issue on the subject…
Julian de Ross
Company Director
William... you expose your presuppositions with the words "stable and progressive" which is really uncomfortably close to ideological colonialism. "progressive" is about 15 months pregnant with the usual lefty agenda, and I'm afraid trying to apply that to a place like Afghanistan is like trying to force a very big square peg into a small round hole.
Read moreYou seem to be ignoring the issue of culture and religion, not to mention 'tribe'. Having lived in (and being married to) a tribal situation, I can…
Julian de Ross
Company Director
Forget whether they are crimmo's or not Marylin.. just close the borders and they'll get the message pretty quick.
-Turn boats back. (warning shots included)
-Send people back
-Punish those who return again
They would have the same 'mercy' to us if we tried to swarm into their villages.
Julian de Ross
Company Director
"believes he is in mortal danger". While this may be the case in some particular instances, it is more than likely to be the justification used to gain residency in Australia. (John Clark)
John....I'd put it stronger than that. They will have been schooled well in how our system works, (or better put..does not work) and they will tailor their stories to suit the loopholes and the people like Marylin Shepherd and others who are part of the 'industry'.
Read moreThe Green extremists are only supporting…
Peter Hindrup
consultant
The place to start would be to prevent the destruction/plundering of the various countries from which these refugees come. Australia gleefully takes part in the destruction, and then whinges about ameliorating slightly the damage it has helped to cause.
These 'poor' countries from which most of the refugees come were not poor prior to colonisation, or invasion. With the exception of Australia, which had no apparent wealth, I know of no country that was colonised which did not have abundant…
Read moreMarilyn Shepherd
pensioner
Spot on, it's racism pure and simple. The problem today is that both major party leaders are racist bigots from Britain.
Julian de Ross
Company Director
Peter..remarkable grasp of the historically obvious. And might I ask..to which' higher power do you appeal for your moral judgement on said "colonization"? Colonization can rightly be condemned and applauded, it depends on where and who was running the show. Clearly based on the evidence of Post colonial India, the bloodbath which followed the 'peaceful' protest of Ghandi, was evidence that the only thing holding the Muslims/Hindu's back was the one NON Hindu/Muslim power which gave a sense of…
Read moreKasper Janssen
logged in via Facebook
Public debate and awareness is the only way to change Australian policy on this issue. We have the same problem with asylum seekers from Africa in Europe. Don't look away, look at this: http://vimeo.com/12037555 (trailer Deep Blue See)
Emma Anderson
Artist and Science Junkie
Some responses are better in pictures
http://imageupper.com/i/?S0300010090011K13541920872207745
gary hudson
retired engineer
Surely there is sufficient information available to Government to decide whether humans in a particular region of a particular country should be offered refugee status. This is the decision point for setting national policy. Recently, it has become obvious to our bureaucrats and pollies that many assylum seekers are from Sri Lanka.
Read moreObviously, not a coutryor region suffering civil unrest to the extent of many other countries or regions.
How politically incorrect would it be to set and announce policy…
Roger Tonkin
(Retired) University Lecturer in Econometrics
Professsor Jakubowicz,
In the first sentence of your article you state that the Australian government, as part of its revamped Pacific Solution, has increased the likelihood of disasters at sea. How has it done this? The intended purpose of the
revamped Pacific Solution, as proposed by the Houston Expert Panel, is to minimise, or preferably end, the deaths of asylum seekers at sea.
David Donaldson
adult educator
I think that AJ was showing how the Australian govt's attempts at frightening potential boat travellers may have, psychologically and sociologically, the opposite effect to what the govt intends. If the govt's intention is to reduce deaths at sea, then it follows, on AJ's reasoning, that deaths would increase.
Both AJ's article and the conclusion on increasing deaths do seem to me to have validity. AJ is trying to explain to us 'why they are still coming' in spite of what we do to stop them. That is an important question which deserves serious consideration.
Roger Tonkin
(Retired) University Lecturer in Econometrics
David Donaldson,
In his first sentence, Professor Jakubowicz did not raise the prospect of boat travellers being frightened psychologically and sociologically. He referred, very specifically, to a government decision to deliberately increase the likelihood of disasters at sea. If he meant something else, he should have worded that first sentence differently. Verbal dissonance in the first sentence is not a good way to start.
John Clark
Manager
Roger,
Sadly, intentions do not always achieve the desired outcome. The Pacific Solution is a desperate measure, but not working. As a result, more people will
drown.
Roger Tonkin
(Retired) University Lecturer in Econometrics
John Clark,
The Australian government did not decide to increase the likelihood of disasters at sea. By implementing the Houston Expert Panel proposals, the government made a deliberate decision to discourage asylum seekers from getting on unseaworthy boats provided by people smugglers.
John Clark
Manager
From time to time it is suggested that arrivals by boat are less significant than asylum seekers who come by plane. I am puzzled by this reference. how can this happen? Some contributor may explain to me.
David Donaldson
adult educator
What I have noticed is not what John Clark says. I have noticed people saying that arrivals by plane are AS important as by boat, so if a fuss is to be make about boat arrivals, then a fuss should also be made about Plane arrivals.
Caroline Wright
logged in via Facebook
For anyone who thinks that it is just a few thousand and that it nothing to worry about, just think about this:
The latest two illegal boats to have arrived in Australia, brings the total number of illegal arrivals to more than 30,000 people under the Rudd/Gillard government.
This is more illegal arrivals than the entire populations of centres like Warrnambool (29,286), the Blue Mountains (29,770), Albany (26,644). Mount Gambier (25,200), Alice Springs (24,210) Devonport (22,770) or Mount Isa…
Read moreDavid Donaldson
adult educator
Caroline's new contribution seems intended to fan adversarial controversy in the political field, which she has a right to do in say a letters page in a newspaper.
Jacubov's article was not about political stances, it was about the reasons for the behavior that we can see happening i.e. numbers of boat arrivals in spite of dangers and threats.
This is a discussion about psychology and sociology, in which Jacubov is an expert. He has special knowledge about what makes people behave in sometimes puzzling ways. It is irrelevant whose is the fault among Australian politicians. What matters is the reasons for these forms of migration. Until we understand those reasons, our remedies are bound to be misdirected.