The Labor government appears to have a spring in its step. After months of poor polls and difficulty passing legislation, things now seem to be going Labor’s way. In recent weeks, the government has been able to win some important battles and demonstrate its capacity to govern.
The start of the carbon tax on July 1 has played a role in Labor’s mini-reversal of fortunes. Prior to the implementation of the tax, the government was subject to constant questions about how it would impact society. Tony Abbott and the Coalition did their best to highlight their opposition to the tax and this clearly resonated with many voters. But now, with the carbon tax in its second month, these concerns may not have the same potency within the electorate.
With the carbon tax debate on the backburner, the government has been quick to identify other major policy issues it wants to address. The Houston Report gave it the opportunity to save face over asylum seeker policy but also try to get the debate off the front page of newspapers.
The Gonski Report into school funding and the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) are shaping up to be the next issues the government wants to address. No doubt the government would be buoyed by its recent win over the tobacco industry. The introduction of plain packaging for cigarettes was heralded as a boon for public health. Moreover, it reinforced the sense within the government, and community, that Labor can actually govern.
While these debates have gone on in the public domain, the government has appeared to stem the tide in the opinion polls. Labor’s primary vote is up to 35% which is a significant improvement over the 28% it achieved in July. In two party preferred terms, Labor is up to 47% to the Coalition’s 53%. These results show that Labor would still lose if an election was held today, but there are signs of a recovery. More importantly for Gillard is that these results strengthen her hold on the prime ministership for the time being.
With Labor appearing to be re-energised, it has sought to tap into the gender divide for electoral support. While Gillard seems to be unpopular with men who have already decided who to vote for at the next election, there appears to be a large group of undecided women who the government is now chasing. Addressing important social policies is one way the government can get the attention of this cohort. Another way is by painting Tony Abbott as anti-women.
Indeed, in recent days several ministers have branded Abbott as a man who is not comfortable with women, especially those in positions of authority. This ties in with broad criticism about Abbott’s socially conservative moral values and seeks to present him as old fashioned. Those with longer memories will remember that Abbott was caught on camera in 2007 swearing during a conversation with Nicola Roxon, then Labor’s health spokesperson, after a health policy debate during the election campaign.
Clearly, being branded as an anti-woman politician is something the Coalition wants to avoid and has led to Abbott describing himself as an “entirely modern man” when it comes to working with women.
But Labor tacticians feel that this can be an important issue, especially since straw polls seem to support the idea that Abbott is anti-women.
Aside from recent questions about Gillard’s former employment in a law firm, the government has had a small, but significant, purple patch. Indeed, the Opposition can no longer rely on its most potent weapon – the carbon tax – to keep attacking the government.
The political debate has shifted and promises to more rigorously test the major parties as the next federal election edges closer.
Riddley Walker
.
"After months of poor polls and difficulty passing legislation,"
What? Around 300 pieces of legislation passed, not to mention a daily "suspension" motion from Abbott, which always loses - the Govt. is having no problem whatsoever passing legislation. Very sloppy writing there.
As for women; Abbott does nothing, says nothing, without the stamp of approval from Peta Credlin.
Philip Dowling
IT teacher
"swearing during a conversation with Nicola Roxon"
I have lived in a number of Australian states and has bullshit has never been considered swearing.
A bit colourful but certainly never a "wash your mouth out word."
Denis Goodwin
Retired
Philip, not only are you absolutely right, but so is the watchful Moderator of The Conversation, who clearly does not have a problem allowing that naughty word in your comment and in the above video clip.
Roxane Paczensky
Registered Nurse
Clearly he does.
This one from the book: Tony Speaks!: The Wisdom of Abbott - available from The ABC Shop http://shop.abc.net.au/products/tony-speaks-pbk
Female equality: 'But what if men are by philosophy or temperament more adapted to exercise authority or to issue command?'
...and these quotes posted on the web site: http://thedawnchorus.wordpress.com/2010/08/05/reasons-to-not-vote-for-tony/
Read more“The problem with the Australian practice of abortion is that an objectively grave matter has been…
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Roxane Paczensky: "Clearly he does." Perhaps Abbott's problems go deeper.
Read moreIn last night's 7:30 (http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3573785.htm) he was clearly unprepared. Did he not take the interview seriously? Would he have been better prepared, but for the fact that the interviewer is a mere female? From my perspective, Leigh Sales left Abbott with a few chunks torn out.
It seems to me that Abbott's intellectually lazy. He'd much rather grandstand in a Iron Man event or bicycle race than…
Shauna Murray
Research Fellow
Roxane
thanks for doing the work of collating all of those quotes.
I think they have just invalidated the argument above, namely that it is his political rivals who are 'painting' him as having views that he actually does not hold.
Philip Dowling
IT teacher
Roxane,
You say "scary stuff".
I am puzzled as to reason for the extreme brevity of this comment or is there actually some logical reasoning - as opposed to simplistic sloganeering - behind it.
I am puzzled because I fail to see how any reasonable person could find some of these comments in any way exceptionable, unless there was deep and sinister meaning read into them by the ideologically blinkered.
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Philip Dowling: "Roxane,
You say "scary stuff".
I am puzzled ...".
Nothing puzzling there. Roxane says scary, I say psychopathic. Neither is more right, just differing reactions.
I think you'll find that most of the electorate is deeply uneasy about Abbott. The most common terms I've heard involve some variation of the term "creep": 'creepy'; 'gives me the creeps'; that sort of thing. Whether that will translate into a loss at the next election, only time will tell.
Emma Anderson
Artist and Science Junkie
Phillip
People are entitled to their opinions and to express them. However, a basis in fact, particularly when it is coming from a person in power who is expected or expecting to make decisions that impact other people’s lives, would be advisable. Where it is not based in fact and the person is making decisions impacting others, that is dangerous, and yes, scary stuff.
The question is then, what is based in fact, and what is scary stuff, about what someone in power (in this case Tony Abbott…
Read moreLynne Newington
Lynne Newington is a Friend of The Conversation.
Researcher
To be honest, I feel sorry for his wife, to hear the garbage that comes out of ones husband's mouth day in and day out, would have to have some affect.
I sometimes think the day will come when he is found to be unwell, then we shall have to forgive him and of course we will.
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Lynne Newington: "I sometimes think the day will come when he is found to be unwell ...". Interesting thought.
Abbott seems to be following the path laid down by John Howard. If 'Work Choices' is any guide, Howard suffered severe mental damage. Maybe Tony's showing the signs.
Lynne Newington
Lynne Newington is a Friend of The Conversation.
Researcher
I wasn't saying it with tongue in cheek actually, I was serious, but then I guess you are too.
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Lynne Newington: "I wasn't saying it with tongue in cheek ...". Me neither.
In my view, Abbott's problem is more one of psychopathy than psychosis.
Denis Goodwin
Retired
David, Is you diagnosis, or "view", of Tony Abbott based on qualifications in psychiatry? I just wonder, in the interests of academic rigour.
Philip Dowling
IT teacher
Severe mental damage?
What an extraordinary statement. Would you care to clarify the basis for this statement?
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Denis Goodwin: "Is you diagnosis, or "view", of Tony Abbott based on qualifications in psychiatry?" Good heavens! I'm not qualified for "diagnosis" of anything. That's why I don't pretend to.
Read moreThat said, it's an interesting question. If I were to "diagnose" psychosis, I'd need qualifications in psychiatry. Psychosis is a mental disorder. "Psychiatry is the medical specialty devoted to the study and treatment of mental disorders." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychiatry
Psychopathy, however, is not…
Denis Goodwin
Retired
David Boxall: A keen student of Wikipedia such as yourself would be aware that, on the question of psychopathy, Wikipedia notes advisedly, “The term is also used by the general public, in popular press, and in fictional portrayals. This popular usage does not necessarily conform to the clinical concept.”
Fictional portrayals, eh? Hmmm.
That almost makes psychopathy sound like it belongs in the category of psycho-babble, doesn't it?
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Denis Goodwin: "... psychopathy sound like it belongs in the category of psycho-babble ...". Denial doesn't change fact.
I see by the sudden changes to the flags and the equally remarkable rise in pro-Abbott posts that the Coalition has decided to defend their leader. Fair enough I guess.
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
"If 'Work Choices' is any guide ...". What clarification do you need?
Philip Dowling
IT teacher
Thank for your clarification. I and other readers can now dismiss all your posts as mere partisan rants.
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Philip, the ultimate clarification was the election result.
Ken Swanson
Geologist
There is no more factual basis for saying TA has a problem with women than does the proposition that Julia Gillard has a problem with:
Men - Opinion Polls show that more men overall support TA than JG
Women: More women support TA than Julia Gillard
Mothers: How could a woman who has no children have any empathy or understanding of parents or parenting. TA has three children
Religious Voters: Julia Gillard is an atheist, how could such a person relate to people with faith in a divine being?
Can we have some balance in this discussion please!
Felix MacNeill
Environmental Manager
Ken, this is one of the crudest fallacies there is which, sadly, one sees from time to time: that, because an article doesn't address everything it's unbalanced.
Why didn't you complain because he didn't address the Muslim view or the Australian Christian Lobby view or the Communist Party view or the Flat Earth Society view?
For that matter, why not complain that he doesn't address the price of bananas or the average number of dandelions in a Bolivian wheat field?
Roger Crook
Retired agribusiness manager & farmer
No, Felix. It's because what the article does address, that makes it unbalanced.
But, when all is said and done, it's a nice piece for Labor and will help to perpetuate a myth. So from that perspective it's a high-wire act, without a poll. (sorry)
Felix MacNeill
Environmental Manager
So, according to what you are trying to pass off as logic, Roger, any author who actually creates a focus on a specific issue in order to deal with it at some depth is unbalanced.
Do you really want to advance that pseudo argument in public?
Shauna Murray
Research Fellow
Ken,
Please provide quotes (with references) for any statements that Julia Gillard has made that are derogatory to men, that cast doubt on their abilities, simply because they are men, or that suggest that the wider community should have a say in what men do with their own bodies.
Ken Swanson
Geologist
Give me the quotes in context TA has made that are derogatory to women and has expressed views about what they should do with their own bodies.
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
See https://theconversation.edu.au/does-tony-abbott-have-a-problem-with-women-labor-certainly-hopes-to-give-him-one-8992#comment_65380
Ken Swanson
Geologist
Still waiting Shauna
David's link to this article is pathetic diversion
Facts please not hate talk
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Ken Swanson: "Facts please not hate talk"
Ken, it's a list of quotes, with references. Or are you saying Abbott hates himself?
Aggie Mills
Researcher
Given that Abbott takes his political cues almost verbatim from the Republican religious right in America, women are justifiably suspicious of his motives once he is in power.
They can expect legislation to diminish their ability to be in charge of their wombs for starters.
Roger Crook
Retired agribusiness manager & farmer
Aggie,
In my view, your comment is nonsense, it's baseless, it's all part of the anti Abbott propaganda blitz from the Left.
The criteria for having an article accepted for the 'Conversation' is that one must be an academic. Having read the above, just goes to show that one should not qualify one, for the other.
It too is nonsense.
Aggie Mills
Researcher
Yes Roger telling women their concerns are nonsense is a winning position. Keep at it!
Craig Minns
Self-employed
Actually, telling anyone who is expressing irrational views that their views are irrational is perfectly reasonable behaviour.
Gillard owes her entire political career to her feminism. She is beholden to the "grrl power" of Emily's List for her hold on the Prime Ministerial seat and she has immediately turned to standard feminist name-calling now that she has had to make a statement on her highly suspect financial and legal dealings some years ago.
Basically, she's a nasty piece of work who regards men as second-class citizens and I for one am happy to return that opinion with interest.
Regardless of the handouts and the feminist rhetoric that plays so well in gender studies staffrooms, she's a dead duck and a fine negative example of the consequences of gender-based selection criteria.
Felix MacNeill
Environmental Manager
I don't suppose there's any chance of you providing any substatial evidence to back up any of your rather paranoid and nasty assertions?
Craig Minns
Self-employed
You obviously don't read newspapers, or you'd not need to resort to name-calling in place of making a substantive comment.
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Craig Minns: "You obviously don't read newspapers ...". Do you read anything beyond Murdoch and Pickering?
Craig Minns
Self-employed
I read a full gamut of news sources, from the Murdoch and Fairfax twins to Der Spiegel, Crikey, several US capital city papers, the BBC, many different blogs of varying degrees of credibility and newsworthiness.
The first screen of bookmarks on my computer is all news sources of one type or other, along with a few credible reference sources.
I don't bother with what is probably your own preferred source at the ABC, since I can largely anticipate what particular "spin" will be put on every story, unlike the rest of the press. I do listen to ABC local radio though, which tends to be less "latte left" than the web or TV services and much better than RN, which is rapidly disappearing up its own fundamental orifice.
Philip Dowling
IT teacher
As the picture of Tony Abbott in lycra illustrates, he is a bike rider of note.
Surely Clover would have him as a pin-up boy for her electorate.