Don’t blame foreign investment for rising house prices

One question that arises on the topic of real estate is the scale of foreign investment and ownership in Australia. It is understandable that the public has concerns about such investment, especially as precious little information is available. An interesting case arose late last year as Chris Vedelago…

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There is little evidence to suggest that foreign investment is driving up the prices of Australian real estate. AAP

One question that arises on the topic of real estate is the scale of foreign investment and ownership in Australia. It is understandable that the public has concerns about such investment, especially as precious little information is available.

An interesting case arose late last year as Chris Vedelago, The Sunday Age’s property reporter, used a Freedom of Information Act (FOI) request in an attempt to gain some insight into this issue. The target of the request was the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB), a government agency tasked with tracking, reviewing and approving submissions for investments of all kinds in Australia.

The reason for the FOI request is that the FIRB is notoriously opaque (non-transparent) in ensuring detailed data on foreign investment are made available to the public. The annual reports provide some basic aggregate statistics but do not release enough information, for instance, the number of temporary residents who have purchased residential real estate and those who have violated investment regulations. Unfortunately, the FOI request revealed little as the FIRB refused to budge.

Vedelago noted this behavior to be political in nature, as discouraging disclosure of relevant details limits the backlash over the perception foreigners are purchasing large amounts of property, causing prices to rise and reducing the options of Australian citizens (though the majority who own property would benefit).

With Australia’s economy appearing relatively strong on the global stage, foreign investors may see the real estate market as attractive, especially given the rapid run-up in property values (approximately 130% adjusted for inflation and quality from 1996 to 2010). Foreign investors likely heed the comforting statements by mainstream commentators who claim housing prices are based upon underlying fundamentals, or intrinsic value.

From what little data the FIRB provides in its latest annual report (2010-11), a picture emerges that is at odds with the conception that a foreign horde is responsible for a flood of investment into the real estate market.

In financial year 2010-11, the FIRB considered a total of 10,865 applications, covering all industry sectors (agriculture, forestry and fishing; finance and insurance; manufacturing, mineral exploration and development; resource processing; services; tourism; and real estate). 4,606 (42%) were approved unconditionally, 5,687 (52%) approved with conditions, with the rest rejected, withdrawn or exempt.

The real estate sector was the primary target of investment, with 9,771 (96%) of all applications. While clearly dominating the number of applications, real estate investment comprised only $42 (23%) out of $177 billion of investment across all sectors. This is due to the relatively small nature of investment in real estate, compared to the larger scale of business investment. For instance, mineral exploration & development garnered the most investment at $55 billion, albeit with a tiny number of applications at 222 (2%). Next was the service sector at $48 billion with 117 (1%) applications, followed by the real estate sector.

The overwhelming majority of real estate applications were for the residential sector rather than commercial sector, at 9,556 (98%) and 215 (2%), respectively. While the number of applications is overwhelmingly lopsided, both residential and commercial sectors received the same amount of investment at $21 billion. Within the residential sector, 3,885 (41%) applications were for existing properties and the rest for purposes of property development at 5,671 (59%).

Interestingly, Victoria was the target for most real estate applications, at 4,398 (45%), with New South Wales coming in at a distant second with 2,598 (27%). Given Victoria’s 2.2 million dwellings, with an estimated 40,000 new dwellings constructed last year, the number of applications amounts to 11% of all new dwellings, a fraction compared to the total dwelling stock.

Clearly, the vast majority of ownership within the real estate sector is domestic. The top country by investment in this sector is the UK at $4.6 billion, followed by China at $4.1 billion, and the US in third place with $3.4 billion. China headed the pack with the largest number of applications across all sectors, at 5,033 (47%) of the total.

Chinese investors may perceive Australia’s property market as a store of wealth, especially considering the relative stability of the Australian government and economy. The steadily growing Chinese economy has produced 535,000 millionaires as of 2010, outnumbering Australia’s 193,000. The growing ranks of these high net worth individuals could be a driver of foreign investment into Australia, though this cannot be confirmed without comprehensive data from the FIRB.

As noted, this has resulted in concerns about foreigners “interfering” in the health of the property market. The evidence, however, shows that foreign investment in real estate is relatively small. Apprehension of Chinese influence (the “yellow peril”) is unwarranted, as the US and UK are collectively responsible for double the amount of Chinese investment.

It is impossible to mount a case that foreign investment is a driver of increasing housing prices. This is no different to the National Housing Supply Council suggesting that homeless people and caravan park residents are a cause of an undersupply, pushing up prices. The blame game in the US says that the Chinese were partially responsible for the housing and financial crises on the basis that the Chinese government’s purchases of US bonds kept interest rates artificially low, setting off the housing boom.

Blaming foreigners for astronomical prices is nothing but a scapegoat for the policies enacted by government on behalf of bankers and landowners that makes housing unaffordable. Those who are discontented with the current states of affairs should focus their attention on our own government rather than searching for foreign influences.

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9 Comments sorted by

  1. Teflon Id

    logged in via Twitter

    You're correct to say that we should be looking elsewhere for the reasons behind the increase in property prices over the past 12 years or so, but at the same time do you not expect that governments (on behalf of the interest groups they represent) will increasingly look to foreign investment in residential property to ensure that the adjustment to house prices does not threaten the (perceived) wealth of the property owning population ?

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  2. John Smith

    Medical Practitioner

    As an Australian, I have had no problems buying property in the UK, Japan and, more recently, the USA.

    Why is it we have a 'thing' against foreign investment? We should be grateful rather than paranoid when foreigners park their money in Australia. Think of the tax dollars we could reap when they sell!

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    1. Andrew Smith

      Education Consultant at Australian & International Education Centre

      In reply to John Smith

      +1 Australians want all the perceived benefits but not the perceived disadvantages of our international economy and society.

      Why focus upon Chinese, are they actually the biggest foreign buyers of residential property in Australia? I understood, but stand to be corrected, that UK, North America, Saudi and South Africa were?

      However, interesting example of how little good (valid/reliable) data on real estate market is in the public domain, and much of that is sourced from the real estate industry itself....

      With dodgy, fudged and confected clearance rates being spruiked in media by Fairfax especially, real estate agents,"consultants" and commentators, should the real estate market not be required to report according to higher standards e.g. like ASX members?

      This would also include levels of foreign investment, official auctions equals number reported on official results which would also show (much lower) clearance rates, actual prices etc.

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  3. Not MacroBusiness

    logged in via Twitter

    You must remember that China has 4.9 billion people, and 83% of them want to live in Wollongong, according to a recent survey I wrote. This is guaranteed to lift the Sydney median price to well above $2.3 million by 2017. The result will be Australia's homeless numbers rocketing from current 950,000 to an expected 950,005 within the decade. Society will crumble under the pressure and an angel will die.

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  4. David Collett

    logged in via Twitter

    “It is impossible to mount a case that foreign investment is a driver of increasing housing prices.”

    Let’s “have a go” with the data from the above article.

    Over 2010-11 foreign buyers spent $42 Billion on residential properties in Australia with an estimated 11% of newly built homes in VIC purchased by overseas buyers.

    What are the determinants of demand?

    One of them is “the number of consumers in the market” (1). Therefore, since there was an extra 9,556 residential applications in…

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  5. Jack Arnold

    Director

    Oh dear ... an academic playing in the real world.

    Economic Theory suggests that more potential purchasers increases demand & so raises the price for any commodity in short supply, including metropolitan housing mediated only by money supply or credit supply from banks.

    Perhaps the optimal solution would be to decentralise government jobs from metro cities to urban regional centres so that pressure on metro residential prices is reduced to balance the influx of foreigners willing to pay (locally) high prices to gain international tax advantages.

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    1. Sean Reynolds

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Jack Arnold

      Agreed, Jack Arnold. Philip is normally very good, but I think he has missed the point of the effects of the money flooding out of China before its economy collapses in propping up house and apartment prices in Australia, to the detriment of the younger generation who would like to buy here at a fair price. Developers simply want to take the maximum price from any source, and just as housing sales were petering out and prices falling, Chinese factory owners and mysteriously rich CP party officials started offshoring their money like crazy before they lose it. All helped conveniently by the FIRB relaxing foreign ownership of new builds from a maximum of 50% to 100%. Must keep that 'economy' going and speculator frenzy high, eh?

      e.g. see China’s Economy: Apocalypse Soon? (http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/09/watching-the-china-stress-index-its-rising/)

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  6. Luke Hurst

    PhD Candidate in Economics at Australian National University

    Phillip, you provide an perfect example of how the discourse on this topic is hijacked by wafer-thin research and grand statements... This analysis is a clear case in point...

    1. FIRB doesn't approve applications, it provides advice to the Treasurer who makes the final decision. This is significant. The FIRB was originally set up to as a way to manage the political economy considerations of increasing US and Japanese investment in the 1970s and provide a buffer for investment proposals from political…

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