Julia Gillard is an Australian political pioneer in many ways. She was the first female prime minister, she led the first minority government in the post-war period and recently moved to appoint the first female senator from an indigenous Australian background.
Now, the prime minister has taken another innovative step by announcing the date of the federal election – September 14 – some seven and a half months before it is to be held.
This is an unusual step for a prime minister to take. In Australia, federal election dates are not fixed and, as the old adage goes, timing is everything. Traditionally, governments hold out on announcing the election date until the last possible point in time. This is so they can select the time that will best serve their political interests while also keeping the opposition in the dark.
While there is no fixed term, the federal parliament cannot run for more than three years after the day it first meets. And while governments are free to call an election earlier if they believe they stand to benefit, a minimum campaign period of 33 days must precede the day of election.
In 1998, for example, John Howard announced an early election, fearing that going later could jeopardise his chances of holding onto power. While the Howard government lost the two-party preferred vote in 1998, it did win enough seats to hold a majority in the House of Representatives. In 2004 and 2007, Howard’s strategy was to hold an election off until much later to attenuate the vigour of the opposition’s campaign. As history demonstrates, this yielded benefits in the former election, but could not stop the inevitable loss in the latter.
Even earlier than that, governments in the 1980s called Australians to the polls in 1980, 1983, 1984 and 1987 as they sought to use the flexibility of selecting election dates to their advantage. The 1984 election, called by Bob Hawke, had an unusually long ten-week campaign which some Labor strategists believed weakened the party’s standing.
The decision can be interpreted in different ways. Constitutional requirements mean that the 2013 election could only be held within a narrow window: from 3 August to 30 November.
Announcing the date so early prevents the inevitable speculation that would follow the prime minister in an election year. This would not only become a nuisance for the government, but also drown out any policy achievements it sought to champion throughout the year.
It also provides for a degree of certainty and transparency. It allows government agencies and business to function with the knowledge of when an election will be held.
The announcement also puts the opposition under the spotlight. The government has painted opposition leader Abbott as a loose cannon and it will hope that he falters, or issues a fatal gaffe, as election day nears. It may also ignite debates within the Coalition about whether they still believe that Abbott will return them to government. While still unpopular in opinion polls, Abbott has put the Coalition in an election-winning position which should mean that he avoids any challenges to his leadership.
It is often the case that in an election year opinion polls also become tight as voters start to think more seriously about who they want in government for the next three years, rather than respond to the political debate at a particular point in time.
The opinion polls from this year paint a slightly better picture for the government, but it still trails the opposition. It is often the case that governments can withstand an electoral backlash and return to government with a reduced majority. But the minority situation Labor finds itself in means that it actually has to win seats to survive. Based on current opinion polls, this seems unlikely.
The government has now set its own timeline to persuade voters it should be returned. If it succeeds, Gillard’s innovative spirit will be hailed.
If it fails, it’s unlikely that future governments will follow in her footsteps.
Riddley Walker
.
This is a good idea. Effectively Gillard is running a fixed term govt., something which would be beneficial to democracy anyway.
It also means Abbott will have a longer period of media interrogation, something he has avoided to date.
alfred venison
records manager (public sector)
this is a litmus test for the media & media credibility. with the country in election mode until september the media now have tacit permission and an expectation to ask hard questions & follow-up questions of all contenders from now until the election result is declared. but will they? i wonder if the media can sustain serious electoral reporting & analysis for nine months and how many reader-voters will respect them afterwards for what they end up providing. -a.v.
Dale Bloom
Analyst
Oh the total agony of an impending 8 month election campaign.
As if people have not had enough already of all the political melodramas, pre-arranged photo and publicity sessions, feminist screeches, and her voice that is enough to make paint peel off the wall out of shear boredom.
There must be better way to run a country than relying on politicians.
Tim Scanlon
Debunker
I'm really looking forward to the election. Finally someone will be able to explain to me the difference between being incompetent and stupid so I can pick one to vote for.
Richard Plumridge
Student
"Very courageous, Prime Minister," may have been the response from some in the Labor Party. Although fixed terms may be good for democracy and all the rest of it (whatever that means), the PM has now done away with one of the prerogatives of incumbency. That said, I feel that electoral prerogative probably wouldn't have been as useful this time around with an unpopular minority government.
I do question why again Labor strategists seem to be hoping Abbott will make a fatal gaffe. It didn't happen last time and he's probably controlled enough to run a relatively gaffe-free campaign again.
wilma western
logged in via email @bigpond.com
Having fixed terms is accepted as normal in several states. Vic has 4 year fixed terms for both houses of parlt. I think 3 years is too short for the Fed Govt and if the Greens want to push their campaign for fixed terms for federal parliaments they should also advocate 4 year terms for the House of Reps. This would of course cause a problem with the Senate--- would 8 years be too long for a Senators term of office?
As for campaigning, Abbott spent most of the time campaigning for an early election…
Read moreIan Donald Lowe
Seeker of Truth
I'm Julia, I wear glasses now. Not because I need them to see but moreso because they make my beady eyes look bigger. My stylist picked them out for me am I not fashionable?
steven herrick
logged in via Twitter
I'm Ian. I comment on what a woman wears rather than what she says or does. It's so much easier...
Suzi Heaton
logged in via email @gmail.com
Thank you for that reply, Steven Herrick - tis a small person indeed that needs to resort to making fun of someone's appearance.
Craig Minns
Self-employed
It's an even smaller person who relies on appearance over substance.
It's all moot anyway, since it looks like Gillard's supporters are deserting both her and the Party she's done so much damage to.
I hope the incoming Government has the good sense to run a proper Commission into the corruption that is endemic within Unions and hence within the Labor Party, since so much of that party is dominated by former and current union officials.
Such a commission might be the only chance that working people have of getting proper committed representation, because it's sure that the pigs who own the trough at present will never allow anything to get between them and it.
Raine S Ferdinands
Retired
Agree with your sentiments, Craig Minns. Labor is nothing more than an avenue for union thugs to climb the political ladder. Corruption is rife in unions. I know first hand what some corrupt union leaders do; much more than what Thomson is alleged to have committed. A commission will highlight the utter corrupt and entrenched union corrupt culture. That Gillard escaped the corruption charges with her former boyfriend does not clear her from those accusations. Gillard understands Thomson and all other…
Read moreRon Chinchen
Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)
Sorry Raine but I take umbrage at you besmirching Unionism and union leaders in general terms. I accept you may have had bad experiences and I accept that. But as in all areas there are some bad eggs but in most cases in my long period as a public servant I found union reps helpful and supportive often against self seeking managers and general administrators.
And how do I know? Well because I was a union rep and in fact for a time Chair of the particular branch in which I was employed. The role…
Read moreRichard Plumridge
Student
Indeed, Ron. It's always amused me how unions are instantaneously demonised for being unions. Because there are no self-interested bad eggs in the corporate sphere, are there? No one in business has ever attempted to take advantage of those in their employ. No, it's only because you can tar union members with a "unionist" brush. Captains of industry are naturally altruistic beings with the best interests of all at heart. Just ask those who worked for Darrell Lea and Spotlight circa 2006.
Craig Minns
Self-employed
Ron, at present there are two major unions who have former top-level officials facing police action over fraud and theft of the property of union members. One of those unions has several former officials in Government office, as well as the son of its supposedly "honorary" President. That particular union, the AWU, was proud to announce that all of its office holders had been "re-elected unopposed" recently. That union is also in control of one of the strongest factions within the ALP and is directly…
Read moreRon Chinchen
Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)
Craig I dont care that you can give examples of corrupt and power hungry union officials. I acknowledged that there are bad eggs in various unions. But they are not the majority.
I was involved in union activity for over a decade and I can assure you that such behaviour in the unions I was involved in was almost unheard of. For example you mentioned strikes. Our Union went on strike once in 1978 full stop. It has never been on strike independently since that time. And that strike lasted one day…
Read moreCraig Minns
Self-employed
Ron, you are so busy being defensive you don't seem to realise we're on the same side of this issue.
I'm not "attacking unions", I'm attacking those at the top of them who misuse them for personal and political benefit. The hard-working union reps at the frontline have my respect, even if I find it a bit weird to think of union reps mediating disputes between managers, or even of managers being in the union in the first place.
There's no scapegoating here, just a desire to see the unions acting as they should - as representatives of the workers to management and doing it as efficiently and transparently as possible. Why do you find that so confronting?
Ron Chinchen
Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)
Its not being defensive Craig. Its being annoyed on behalf of so many good union reps I've known, who work very hard on behalf of their members, only to continuously in the press, from politicians and the general, and often ignorant public, are painted with the same brush as those betrayers of the system.
What I'm saying is that 'unionism' in general in many peoples minds is becoming a dirty word, and unfairly so, but encouraged by many politicians, even ex union bosses in politics and the media…
Read moreRon Chinchen
Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)
I've always been for a fixed term of government. Make a party more accountable, rather than allow it to 'con' the public by picking and choosing times when their popularity is at its highest. I also believe we should have a 4 year term to encourage governments to introduce more long term policies, instead of the bandaiding we have been getting for so many issues and the old game of blaming the former government for problems the next government faces even up to the following election. We need to make…
Read moreMichael Hay
retired
Is it age that makes older people tend to think alike ? I would plump for a 5 year term for fixed term elections. This would make the maximum time in the Senate 10 years. However one would need to be sure that the influence of part politics is substantially reduced. To my mind, this could be accomplished by removing from the political parties the opportunity to dictate whom their candidate will be.
Appoint a committee of "eminent persons" in each State to whom application to stand in an election would be made. This committee would have, as a basic tenet, the surety that the candidates chosen would have demonstrated an ability to govern rather than be puppets which toe the party line.
Thus we electors would have a better chance of electing a government which puts governance well before petty party politics.
That, surely, would be an improvement on the crassness of what we now have !
Michael Hay
retired
The last sentence in the first paragraph is badly written ! Political parties would be encouraged to nominate candidates to the electoral committee, recognizing that if their choice of candidate has no hope of meeting the criteria, they should treat the new system and the electorates with more respect and nominate a candidate who has governance ability.