tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/atiku-abubakar-62814/articlesAtiku Abubakar – The Conversation2023-02-16T13:25:25Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1987342023-02-16T13:25:25Z2023-02-16T13:25:25ZEconomy and security on the ballot in Nigeria – 5 things to watch in presidential election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509834/original/file-20230213-24-ghqcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young Nigerians rallying to support Labour candidate Peter Obi consider themselves part of the 'Obi-dient' movement.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporter-sticks-a-party-flag-to-her-face-during-campaign-news-photo/1247043117">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Voters in Africa’s largest democracy will <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/nigerians-vote-soon-to-choose-next-president-lawmakers-/6952941.html">go to the polls on Feb. 25, 2023</a>, to pick a new president. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.idea.int/data-tools/country-view/231/40">voter turnout</a> has been on a steady decline in Nigeria for two decades, a recent surge of interest in politics and improvements to the election process have meant that <a href="https://www.inecnigeria.org/">93 million Nigerians</a> are now registered to vote. </p>
<p>I have observed four Nigerian elections as part of domestic and international missions, and I also worked in the National Assembly shortly after the military stepped down in 1999. As an academic both at the University of Ibadan and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gw8HUpYAAAAJ&hl=en">now back in the U.S.</a>, I have <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gw8HUpYAAAAJ&hl=en">researched</a> Nigeria’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139962872">development</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198804307.001.0001">political history</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2020.1734968">electoral politics</a> ever since. </p>
<p>Each of Nigeria’s elections since the military dictatorship ended has been important in its own way. For example, the 2015 vote held special importance when the newly formed opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP). It was the first time in Nigeria’s history that one political party handed power over to another. Elections in 2019 overcame major logistical obstacles and security risks, and the swift passage of electoral reforms during Muhammadu Buhari’s second term <a href="https://www.ndi.org/publications/iri-ndi-conduct-second-pre-election-assessment-mission-ahead-nigeria-s-2023-general">increased public confidence</a> in electoral processes.</p>
<p>The presidential vote scheduled for this month will be consequential for Nigeria’s economy and national security. Here are five reasons the 2023 elections are unique and critical. </p>
<h2>1. Religion less of a mobilizing force</h2>
<p>Nigeria is roughly <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2012/12/18/global-religious-landscape-exec/">evenly divided between Muslims and Christians</a>, and religion plays a big role in electoral politics. For example, using a large national survey, I showed that Muslims were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2020.1734968">56% more likely</a> to vote for the Muslim candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, in 2015.</p>
<p>Religion is often a tool for political mobilization, since northerners are overwhelmingly Muslim and most southerners are Christian. This time around, the candidates from the two major parties are both Muslim, reducing the religious rhetoric on the campaign trail. Bola Tinubu of the APC and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP have therefore focused on other issues – such as <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/nigerias-presidential-hopefuls-make-vague-promises-on-security">insecurity</a> and <a href="https://theexchange.africa/countries/nigeria-elections-2023-tinubu-blockchain-taxation-oil/">the economy</a> – to mobilize voters and distinguish themselves from each other. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509837/original/file-20230213-18-np5o2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Split photo of two Black men in ceremonial Nigerian robes and traditional fila hats" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509837/original/file-20230213-18-np5o2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509837/original/file-20230213-18-np5o2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509837/original/file-20230213-18-np5o2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509837/original/file-20230213-18-np5o2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509837/original/file-20230213-18-np5o2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509837/original/file-20230213-18-np5o2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509837/original/file-20230213-18-np5o2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The two leading candidates are Bola Tinubu, left, of Nigeria’s ruling All Progressive Congress party, and former vice president Atiku Abubakar, of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-combination-of-file-pictures-created-on-june-10-2022-news-photo/1241215339">Kola Sulaimon and Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. There’s no incumbent</h2>
<p>This is only the second time ever that Nigeria has had a presidential vote without an incumbent running for reelection. This is good for democracy, since it suggests that presidents are yielding to popular support for constitutional term limits. It is certainly an improvement over President Olusegun Obasanjo’s failed attempt in 2006 <a href="https://www.academia.edu/80182498/Nigeria_Confronts_Obasanjos_Legacy">to change the constitution</a> so he could run for a third term.</p>
<p>However, this situation also alters the dynamics of competition. One analysis of 22 years of African elections finds that ruling parties are only <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/history/african-history/democracy-africa-successes-failures-and-struggle-political-reform?format=PB">half as likely to win</a> when the incumbent president is not in the running. This improves the PDP’s odds. </p>
<h2>3. Labour candidate has energized young voters</h2>
<p>Peter Obi, who was Atiku Abubakar’s running mate in 2019, has emerged as a viable third-party candidate from the Labour Party. At 61, he is younger than the two leading candidates and hails from the overwhelming Christian southeast – where ethnic Igbos feel like they have been left out of presidential politics for decades.</p>
<p>Former president Obasanjo surprised the nation by <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202301060130.html">endorsing Obi</a> rather than the candidate from the PDP, his party during his two terms. </p>
<p>While some surveys targeting rural citizens show Obi <a href="https://thenextier.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Nigeria-2023-Elections_Poll-of-Rural-Voters_November-2022-Final.pdf">ahead at the polls</a>, conventional political science suggests he is unlikely to win. Nigeria’s electoral system, as in the U.S., makes it difficult for third-party candidates to succeed. </p>
<p>But Obi’s momentum has been no surprise to Nigerians under 35, who constitute a staggering <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-12/71-million-young-nigerians-have-registered-to-vote-in-next-month-s-election#xj4y7vzkg">40% of newly registered voters</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509838/original/file-20230213-20-7rhe0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nigerian presidential candidate Peter Obi walks through crowd of supporters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509838/original/file-20230213-20-7rhe0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509838/original/file-20230213-20-7rhe0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509838/original/file-20230213-20-7rhe0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509838/original/file-20230213-20-7rhe0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509838/original/file-20230213-20-7rhe0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509838/original/file-20230213-20-7rhe0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509838/original/file-20230213-20-7rhe0z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labour Party’s Peter Obi has emerged as a viable third-party candidate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/labour-partys-presidential-candidate-peter-obi-arrives-at-a-news-photo/1245028792">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Violence has spread across the country</h2>
<p>In 2015, a key question for voters was: Which candidate is better suited to end the militant group Boko Haram’s insurgency? Nigerians’ resounding answer then, and again at the 2019 polls, was Muhammadu Buhari. </p>
<p>But during Buhari’s two terms, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria">violence escalated and diversified</a>. Where Boko Haram overwhelmingly targeted the northeast, today the region also faces the militant group <a href="https://ctc.westpoint.edu/islamic-state-africa-estimating-fighter-numbers-cells-across-continent/">Islamic State West Africa Provence</a>, the “middle belt” states contend with cattle <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/svnp-herder-farmer-food-security">herders clashing with farmers</a>, <a href="https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/cattle-rustling-instability-nigeria/">cattle bandits</a> plague the north-central and northwest states, and <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2021/08/nigeria-at-least-115-people-killed-by-security-forces-in-four-months-in-countrys-southeast/">secessionists in the southeast</a> have attacked electoral offices and clashed with police.</p>
<p>According to the Council on Foreign Relations Security Tracker, Nigeria saw about <a href="https://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483">7,000 violent deaths</a> last year, a decline from roughly 9,000 in 2021. Another credible source, the Armed Conflict Location Event Dataset, reports <a href="https://acleddata.com/africa/">10,600 violent deaths</a> in 2022. The techniques for counting are slightly different, but the message is the same: Violence in Nigeria is a dire risk to democracy, especially on the eve of elections.</p>
<p>Furthermore, both data sources confirm that state attacks on civilians have also increased. Thousands of unarmed young people demonstrating in Lagos for an end to the Special Anti-Robbery Squad SARS were shot at by security forces in October 2020. <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/05/09/nigeria-prioritize-justice-abuses-against-protesters">At least 48 people died</a> in a single day at an #EndSARS protest in Lagos.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509840/original/file-20230213-20-352u9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man in sunglasses holds protest sign while police in riot shields walk nearby" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509840/original/file-20230213-20-352u9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509840/original/file-20230213-20-352u9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509840/original/file-20230213-20-352u9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509840/original/file-20230213-20-352u9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509840/original/file-20230213-20-352u9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509840/original/file-20230213-20-352u9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509840/original/file-20230213-20-352u9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters commemorate the one-year anniversary of #EndSARS, a protest movement against police brutality.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-displays-a-placard-during-a-protest-to-commemorate-one-news-photo/1235999623">Kola Sulaimon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. Electoral violence remains a threat</h2>
<p>In December, Nigeria’s Electoral Commissioner said there <a href="https://saharareporters.com/2022/12/16/nigerian-electoral-body-inec-offices-15-states-attacked-50-times-three-years-chairman">were 50 attacks</a> on their regional offices and other facilities since 2019. Armed Conflict Location Event Dataset <a href="https://acleddata.com/nigeria-election-violence-tracker/">data indicates</a> this is a gross underestimate, with the minimum being 134. </p>
<p>The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recently admitted it is <a href="https://www.state.gov/imposing-visa-restrictions-on-individuals-involved-in-undermining-the-democratic-process-in-nigeria/">unable to hold elections</a> in at least 240 polling units because of violence.</p>
<p>Civil society groups in Nigeria such as <a href="https://eie.ng/">Enough Is Enough</a>, <a href="https://situationroomng.org/">Situation Room</a> and <a href="https://www.yiaga.org/">YIAGA Africa</a> are spreading messages to deter electoral violence. The U.S., for its part, announced <a href="https://www.state.gov/imposing-visa-restrictions-on-individuals-involved-in-undermining-the-democratic-process-in-nigeria/">visa bans on Nigerians</a> involved in undermining Nigeria’s elections. And former Assistant U.S. Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson, who has deep knowledge of Nigeria, will lead the <a href="https://www.iri.org/news/ndi-and-iri-field-second-joint-delegation-to-assess-nigerias-pre-election-environment/">election observation mission</a> this month. </p>
<h2>Democracy at stake</h2>
<p>Nigeria’s political reformers have made progress over the past two decades. But more work needs to be done. Nigeria’s purchase of a billion dollars of <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2022/04/14/us-state-dept-approves-1-billion-sale-to-nigeria-delayed-over-human-rights-concerns/">American military assistance</a> in 2022 suggests that reducing insecurity – like efforts to advance democracy – requires international collaboration around shared goals of peace and democratic participation.</p>
<p>The Biden administration highlighted during its 2022 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/12/15/u-s-africa-leaders-summit-strengthening-partnerships-to-meet-shared-priorities/">U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit</a> that partnership needs to be based on equality and respect. </p>
<p>A free and fair election in February 2023 would be an important step forward. Should there be any setbacks – especially during a potentially contentious runoff election – I believe friends of Nigeria will need to unite quickly to sustain its democratic progress.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198734/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carl LeVan is affiliated with the Centre for Democracy and Development. </span></em></p>An expert on Nigerian political history explains why the 2023 elections are unique and critical.Carl LeVan, Professor of Comparative and Regional studies, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1874682022-08-09T15:23:48Z2022-08-09T15:23:48ZAtiku Abubakar: Nigeria’s perennial presidential candidate is back on the stump<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477172/original/file-20220802-11-xbeprm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Atiku Abubakar</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/nigerian-former-vice-president-atiku-abubakar-speaks-during-news-photo/1240969095?adppopup=true">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Atiku Abubakar is the candidate for Nigeria’s main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party, in the 2023 presidential election. </p>
<p>He served as <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47046599">vice-president of Nigeria to President Olusegun Obasanjo</a> from 1999 to 2007.</p>
<p>Abubakar has had aspirations to be the president since 1992: this is <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47046599">his sixth attempt</a>. He was on the ballot in 2007 and 2019, and lost in party presidential primaries in 1993, 2011 and 2015. </p>
<p>He was the People’s Democratic Party candidate in the last presidential election (in 2019) where he garnered about <a href="https://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-GE-PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION-RESULTS.pdf">11 million votes</a> (39%) against the 15 million votes (53%) of the winner, President Muhammadu Buhari. Total votes cast in that election were about 28.6 million, with a <a href="https://www.icirnigeria.org/2019-election-nigeria-has-the-lowest-voter-turnout-in-africa/">voter turnout rate of 34.75%</a>. </p>
<p>Abubakar <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/nnorth-east/232823-atiku-to-emerge-new-waziri-adamawa-son-takes-over-as-turakin.html">holds</a> the traditional title of Wazirin Adamawa in his home state of Adamawa, northeast Nigeria. The title symbolises the office of a prime minister and it makes him a respected person in Adamawa. The 75-year-old is an influential businessman and one of the popular politicians who dominated politics after Nigeria’s return to civil rule in 1999. </p>
<p>Although with origins from Sokoto State, northwest Nigeria, Abubakar <a href="https://educationdocbox.com/73929885-Homeschooling/My-life-atiku-abubakar.html">was born</a> into a Fulani family in 1946 in Jada, Adamawa State. He was in the Nigerian Customs, a para-military agency, before going into business and politics after <a href="https://educationdocbox.com/73929885-Homeschooling/My-life-atiku-abubakar.html">his retirement in 1989</a>. </p>
<p>Abubakar is clearly a strong contender for Nigeria’s presidency in the 2023 elections. He has the political dexterity and experience to compete with other strong candidates. But there are many obstacles in the way of his life-long ambition of becoming Nigeria’s president. </p>
<h2>Political philosophy</h2>
<p>His political philosophy is both a strength and weakness.</p>
<p>A careful observation shows that Abubaker’s political actions since 1999 feature clientelism, realism and neoliberalism. This is not peculiar to him. It is prevalent in Nigeria, as <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73375-9_1">our research shows</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.princeton.edu/%7Elwantche/Clientelism_and_Vote_Buying_Oxford_Review_of_Economic_Policy_2009">Clientelism</a> is a brand of politics that involves the exchange of material and non-material items for political support, often at the expense of the majority. Abubakar has used his abundant wealth to garner support. </p>
<p>Months before the presidential primaries, Abubakar <a href="https://gazettengr.com/i-have-never-failed-to-get-pdp-ticket-i-will-get-it-this-time-too-atiku/">boasted</a> that he had never failed to get his party’s ticket and would get it again. Against other strong aspirants, he still won. <a href="https://punchng.com/dollar-rain-drowns-pdp-presidential-primary-creates-bonanza-for-delegates/">Newspaper reports</a> suggested that delegates received thousands of dollars for his emergence as his party’s candidate. </p>
<p>Abubakar is a <a href="https://iep.utm.edu/polreal/">political realist</a>. He does not hide his ambition to become the president. And he uses every means to achieve it. That includes <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/250477-atiku-abubakar-timeline-serial-defector.html">defection to political parties at different periods</a> and <a href="https://punchng.com/dollar-rain-drowns-pdp-presidential-primary-creates-bonanza-for-delegates">allegedly buying votes</a> to secure a party’s ticket. He also plays ethnic politics by <a href="https://www.icirnigeria.org/2023-atiku-abubakar-makes-u-turn-on-zoning-of-political-offices/">going with political zoning</a> when it favours him and dropping it when it doesn’t. </p>
<p>In 2011, Abubakar supported power rotation between the country’s northern and southern regions. At the time, he stood to benefit from it, as a northern candidate. In 2022, now that people believe it’s the turn of southern elites to be in power, he is against the rotation idea.</p>
<p>He has also in the past exploited the political mood of the nation on issues such as political restructuring. Political restructuring – devolving power to the states – seems to gain popularity in the southern region following claims that the power structure favours the northern elites. </p>
<p>Abubakar fully <a href="https://businessday.ng/politics/article/what-atikus-5-point-agenda-means-for-nigeria/">embraces the principles of neoliberalism</a> based on market fundamentalism. He believes the best way to revive Nigeria’s dying economy is for the state to withdraw, leaving it to the private sector to lead. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/neoliberalism">Neoliberalism</a> is an ideology and policy model that emphasises the value of free market competition. Abubakar demonstrated his belief in a market-oriented economy when <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-politics-exclusive-idUSKCN1IE0Q2">he managed Nigeria’s privatisation programme</a> as vice-president from 1999 to 2007. </p>
<h2>Political strengths</h2>
<p>Abubakar has built an extensive political network across the nation. He once commanded the loyalty of more state governors than his principal, President Obasanjo.</p>
<p>His ability to easily secure the presidential ticket of major political parties shows how strong he is politically. </p>
<p>With 30 years of involvement in presidential elections, he is the most experienced among the presidential candidates. </p>
<p>Money matters in Nigerian politics, and Abubakar has resources to compete with any candidate, including those from the ruling party who have access to public funds.</p>
<p>Being a northerner may also favour his candidature, given that the region produces the most votes among regions in federal elections. In an August 2022 <a href="https://punchng.com/north-west-south-west-lead-as-inec-registers-96-2-million/">update on voter registration</a>, northwest has 22.67 million voters (23.5%) out of 96.2 million. </p>
<p>There are five other geopolitical zones in Nigeria. His two major opponents are candidates from southern Nigeria. The southern region has about 45% of registered voters based on the new figures from the electoral commission. The northern region accounts for approximately 55%. This shows that the southern votes would be split between the two southern candidates which might work in Abubakar’s favour. </p>
<p>Other considerations may neutralise this factor, though. </p>
<h2>Challenges facing his candidature</h2>
<p>Some Nigerian voters no longer seem excited about Abubakar’s candidature.</p>
<p>The fact that he only appears during electoral seasons to contest for the presidential election and <a href="https://punchng.com/atiku-returns-to-nigeria-from-dubai-after-nine-month-stay/">withdraws to his base in Dubai</a> after losing does not convince the public that he holds the nation’s interests at heart.</p>
<p>He is further viewed as a representative of the old order, embodying <a href="https://guardian.ng/opinion/youth-revolt-against-gerontocracy-in-nigerian-politics/">gerontocracy</a> and corruption. Some Nigerians view these as the bane of the country’s development. His public service records are dotted with corruption stories. <a href="https://www.icirnigeria.org/atiku-wife-fingered-trillion-dollars-corruption-case/">A 2020 report</a> by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalism mentioned Abubakar and his wife in money laundering cases amounting US$2 trillion. </p>
<p>And his seeming support in the north may be challenged by other notable northern candidates such as Rabiu Kwankwanso, a former governor of Kano State. Kwankwaso <a href="https://republic.com.ng/june-july-2022/kwankwaso-kano/">is becoming a darling</a> of the northern masses. </p>
<p>His northern origins may also be a disadvantage given that Buhari is a northerner too and is on the verge of completing an eight-year tenure. Producing another northern president is seen as violating a power rotation arrangement that prevents ethnic domination. </p>
<p>Lastly, the People’s Democratic Party seems to be embroiled in <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/545716-2023-pdp-crisis-worsens-as-wike-attacks-atiku-others.html">internal crisis</a> since he selected his running mate, Ifeanyi Okowa. Party divisions could cost it votes. </p>
<p>As Abubakar prepares for the campaigns in September, he will have to prepare strategies to address the challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187468/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hakeem Onapajo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are hurdles in the way of Nigeria’s major opposition party’s presidential candidate for the 2023 elections.Hakeem Onapajo, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Nile University of NigeriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1130452019-03-07T13:36:54Z2019-03-07T13:36:54ZThe four key factors that determined the outcome of the Nigeria poll<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262404/original/file-20190306-100805-exdt3j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Women waiting to vote in Nigeria's 2019 elections. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/George Esiri</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mixed reactions greeted Nigeria’s 2019 presidential elections outcome. The 2019 presidential election was expected to be a close race because the two main candidates are from the northern part of the country. But, in the end, the final result showed Muhammadu Buhari polling <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/26/muhammadu-buhari-to-claim-victory-in-nigerias-presidential-election">56% of the total vote cast</a>.</p>
<p>The 2019 elections featured a total of 73 presidential candidates but the real contest was between the incumbent of the All Progressives Congress and the former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar of the platform of People’s Democratic Party.</p>
<p>Despite Atiku’s perceived popularity and Buhari’s lacklustre performance during his four years as president, four key issues shaped the outcome of the election. Some of these had more to do with Abubakar’s weaknesses – such as being tainted as corrupt and bad calculations about voting patterns in the south – than Buhari’s strengths. But factors such as high levels of tensions in some parts of the country combined with a low voter turnout also had an impact.</p>
<p>The People’s Democratic Party was quick to condemn the elections. Atiku described the presidential poll as the <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2019/02/28/atiku-this-is-the-worst-election-in-30-years/">“worst in 30 years”</a>. </p>
<p>While the 2019 presidential election wasn’t perfect, it showed that democracy is gradually being entrenched in Nigeria.</p>
<h2>The issues that mattered</h2>
<p>First, the privatisation agenda of the former vice-president was not well received by Nigerians. Atiku promised to create jobs and sell the country’s oil corporation - The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). While selling the highly inefficient corporation might be a good idea, the part privatisation of the country’s electricity sector has not been successful and another privatisation drive raised concerns in many quarters. It was quickly rumoured around the country that the former vice president would sell the country’s prized asset to his associates forcing him to <a href="https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/i-will-sell-nnpc-to-nigerians-not-to-my-friends-atiku.html">debunk the claim</a> during several campaigns and interviews.</p>
<p>Second, political calculations especially in the South-West region of the country worked against the former vice-president. In 1999, when Nigeria returned to democracy after 16 years of military rule, there was an unwritten agreement between the power brokers that the presidency will rotate between the north and south for eight years each time. Although this is not constitutional, power has rotated between the north and south. </p>
<p>Since incumbent president Buhari had already completed a first term being a northerner, most people in the south believed that voting for another northern candidate would imply the north being in power for 12 years since it is assumed every candidate would wish to complete two terms of four years. This assumption put off many voters from the South against Atiku, who is also from the north.</p>
<p>Third, Buhari’s anti-corruption stance, coupled with <a href="https://punchng.com/we-have-fresh-evidence-of-corruption-against-atiku-says-fg/">corruption allegations against Atiku</a> played a significant role. </p>
<p>In his book entitled, <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=5JWDDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT45&lpg=PT45&dq=propensity+to+corruption,+his+tendency+to+disloyalty,+his+inability+to+say+and+stick+to+the+truth+all+the+time,a+propensity+for+poor+judgment,+his+belief+and+reliance+on+marabouts+,+his+lack+of+transparency,+his+trust+in+money+to+buy+his+way+out+on+all+issues+and+his+readiness+to+sacrifice+morality,+integrity,+propriety+truth+and+national+interest+for+self+and+selfish+interest&source=bl&ots=zBhyqQ_5bm&sig=ACfU3U2LrTBOQpbR8_wjBjJV47MWYHUUhQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjw7pTqqOjgAhXFPFAKHZpmCNYQ6AEwAHoECAAQAQ#v=onepage&q=propensity%20to%20corruption%2C%20his%20tendency%20to%20disloyalty%2C%20his%20inability%20to%20say%20and%20stick%20to%20the%20truth%20all%20the%20time%2Ca%20propensity%20for%20poor%20judgment%2C%20his%20belief%20and%20reliance%20on%20marabouts">‘My Watch’</a>, former President Olusegun Obasanjo made several corruption allegations against Atiku who was the vice-president under his tenure. Although Obasanjo eventually endorsed Atiku, his unflattering characterisation worked against his candidacy as excerpts from the book were circulated widely by the media. </p>
<p>Buhari, on the other hand, was seen by many Nigerians as willing to curtail corruption in the country. This worked in his favour and probably earned him a second term.</p>
<p>Fourth, the tense atmosphere around the country coupled with a heavy military presence in some parts limited voter’s turnout. This resulted in a record low of 35.6%. The numbers of registered voters rose from 57.9 million in 1999 to 84 million in 2019. But turnout continued a decline that’s been clear since 2003. In that year the turnout was 69.1%, four years later in 2007 it was 57.4%, <a href="https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/how-voter-turnout-shapes-nigerias-elections.html">in 2011 it was 53.7% and in 2015 43.6%</a>. </p>
<p>The record low numbers affected both parties. But it affected People’s Democratic Party disproportionately. For instance, the party garnered 1.4 million votes in Rivers state in 2015 but <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/02/2019-presidential-election-results-buhari-polled-over15m-votes/">only managed 473,971 votes</a> this time round, losing about a million votes in a single state. </p>
<p>The low turnouts, especially in the South-south and South-East regions which are believed to be Atiku’s strongholds, also worked in favour of Buhari.</p>
<h2>Free and fair?</h2>
<p>Although pockets of election-related violence around the country resulted in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-25/dozens-killed-in-election-violence-as-nigeria-votes/10844842">deaths of at least 39 people</a>, the election has been described as free and fair in most <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/02/intl-observers-laud-inec-for-free-fair-election-in-kano/">usually volatile places</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, there are two major indications that the elections were largely credible. </p>
<p>First, the outcome for several key individuals, such as incumbent governors, former governors and astute politicians, points to the fact that the will of the people prevailed in a great number of places. For instance, in the senatorial elections, the current senate president Dr Bukola Saraki, <a href="https://punchng.com/how-the-mighty-fell-in-nass-election/">two sitting governors and six former</a> governors lost to relatively unknown candidates. Those who lost had previously been classified as ‘untouchables’ and supposedly had guaranteed senate seats.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262365/original/file-20190306-48438-brp83p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262365/original/file-20190306-48438-brp83p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262365/original/file-20190306-48438-brp83p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262365/original/file-20190306-48438-brp83p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262365/original/file-20190306-48438-brp83p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262365/original/file-20190306-48438-brp83p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262365/original/file-20190306-48438-brp83p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 1: Author supplied.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Second, the use of electronic card readers reduced the incidence of electoral manipulations that had characterised previous elections. Although the card readers were first used in the 2015 elections, the technology has been improved. This meant that there weren’t as many incidents of multiple and underage voting. (Figure 1 above shows the wide discrepancy between registered voters and actual voters.)</p>
<p>Prior to the use of card readers, the elections were fraught with irregularities and manipulations. This explains the fact that, despite lower numbers of registered voters, the number of votes cast were higher in the years prior to the use of electronic card readers. For example, this year 84 million voters registered, but only 29.3 million people were accredited to vote. This suggests that electronic voting has reduced electoral manipulation. </p>
<p>There’s another explanation – voter apathy. Nevertheless, the fact remains that it’s now more difficult to falsify <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14662040902857800?scroll=top&needAccess=true">election results</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113045/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the 2019 presidential election wasn’t perfect, it showed that democracy is gradually being entrenched in Nigeria.Olayinka Ajala, Associate Lecturer and Conflict Analyst, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1129652019-03-05T14:24:32Z2019-03-05T14:24:32ZWhy Buhari won even though he had little to show for first term<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262129/original/file-20190305-48429-t5lhj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Muhammadu Buhari (left) and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo during a campaign rally in Akure, Ondo State.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/Stringer</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A close race was predicted between Muhammadu Buhari and his main rival Atiku Abubakar. In the end the incumbent <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-election-announcement/nigerias-electoral-commission-declares-buhari-winner-of-presidential-election-idUSKCN1QG0C1">won</a> the Nigerian presidential election with almost four million votes. </p>
<p>After the results were declared, <a href="https://twitter.com/atiku/status/1100682572181504000">Atiku cried foul</a>, pointing out numerous flaws and manipulations of the electoral process. He also threatened legal action although it remains to be seen if the Peoples Democratic Party candidate will file suit within 21 days of the vote as required. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, international leaders have already <a href="https://punchng.com/us-france-congratulate-buhari/">congratulated Buhari</a> and his All Progressives’ Congress. This is to be expected. External actors have often tended to prefer stability over denunciation when it comes to incredulous election results. </p>
<p>Hence this still begs the question: did Buhari actually win? Several problems marked the electoral process itself. But, in my view, while the election results were prone to manipulation, the result indicates that Buhari’s party did in fact win. </p>
<p>The question is: how did he do it given his poor track record in his first term? Several factors stand out from the election results: Buhari’s continued popularity in the north, combined with voter apathy in the south. And the fact that Atiku was an uninspiring contestant.</p>
<h2>Buhari’s failures</h2>
<p>Buhari came to power in 2015 after defeating incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan with around 2.5 million votes. His victory at the time can be attributed to his tough stance on corruption, his <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03056244.2018.1456415">poverty alleviation promises</a>, and the Jonathan administration’s failure to curb the Boko Haram crisis.</p>
<p>In addition, Jonathan’s decision to run again as a Southern candidate had caused rifts in the Peoples Democratic Party with many, especially northern, political stalwarts defecting to the All Progressives’ Congress during his presidency. Buhari’s candidacy had already been strengthened by his coalition with the south-western Action Congress of Nigeria.</p>
<p>Buhari’s first term in office can be rated rather poorly. </p>
<p>His administration was struck with the double whammy of a severe recession and a drop in revenues from oil due to <a href="https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/overview/pause-thought-pace-growth-has-slowed-drop-oil-prices">falling oil prices</a>. The government’s responses were slow and mostly inadequate. This was partly due to Buhari’s <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/after-long-absence-due-to-ill-health-nigerias-president-muhammadu-buhari-slams-divisions-terror/a-40175197">long absence from home</a> undergoing treatment for an undisclosed illness.</p>
<p>The Buhari government also didn’t perform very well on the security. While the Boko Haram crisis was pushed back during his first year in office, it resurfaced as the group <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-potentially-more-sinister-threat-in-boko-harams-split">split into several deadly factions</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/growing-herdsmen-militancy-is-adding-to-west-africas-security-threats-81966">Farmer-herder conflict</a> in the Middle Belt has also spun out of control. And the roots of new violent crises may have been laid with the brutal repression of the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra movement as well as the arrest of Muslim clerk El-Zakzaky and violence against his followers.</p>
<p>Finally, while Buhari has indeed taken <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-banks/nigeria-central-bank-suspends-nine-banks-from-fx-market-sources-say-idUSKCN10Y282">actions against corruption</a>, the battle against graft has often appeared to be a battle against political enemies. And little has been achieved at the policy level due to severe legislative-executive <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/nigeria-oil/update-1-nigerias-presidency-rebuffs-landmark-oil-reform-bill-in-current-form-idUKL3N1VJ55M">gridlock</a> during his first term. </p>
<h2>So why the win?</h2>
<p>In the end <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47385552">the electoral map of 2019</a> closely resembles <a href="https://www.nigerianmuse.com/20150411041722zg/elections-2015/monday-quarter-backing-preliminary-analysis-of-the-2015-presidential-elections-in-nigeria-just-the-numbers-please/">that of 2015</a> with most northern and south-western states going to the All Progressives’ Congress. In Lagos, the All Progressives’ Congress won a slight majority in the face of economic decline, but campaigned primarily to get voters to go to the polls. This only partly succeeded. </p>
<p>In the north, the All Progressives’ Congress’s vote share generally dropped on a <a href="http://democracyinafrica.org/data-nigerian-election-results-analysis/">state-by-state level</a>, but turnout was high enough vis-à-vis the south to win the elections overall. </p>
<p>The Peoples Democratic Party did not substantially increase its leverage in the Middle Belt states, which are most affected by the herdsmen-farmer conflict. Particularly noteworthy is Atiku’s poor performance in the North in general. His home state of Adamawa was only won with a slim majority. </p>
<p>Buhari’s continued popularity in the North can partly be explained by the fact that the region is more insulated from international market dynamics. This means that the effects of the recession were less severe. While poverty remains more entrenched in the region, this was to some extent alleviated by <a href="https://www.efficiencyview.com/fg-farmer-moni-loan-geep-initiative/">the government’s subsidy programmes</a>. These also extended patronage to localities which had before largely been excluded from such networks. </p>
<p>Besides this, and from a more emotional perspective, many of Buhari’s supporters still continue to view him as their political messiah. </p>
<h2>Atiku had his weaknesses</h2>
<p>After its loss to the All Progressives’ Congress in 2015, the Peoples Democratic Party itself remained for a long time mired in internal conflict. In the middle of a <a href="http://saharareporters.com/2016/11/17/pdp-leadership-crisis-makarfi-and-sheriff-renew-hostilities">leadership crisis</a>, the party lost political elites and followers, also due to the sudden cut-off from patronage resources. </p>
<p>The party came together again <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/12/pdp-chairmanship-final-battle/">near the end of 2017</a>, but had to rebuild its grassroots structures in many areas. This could have led to the lack of mobilisation in the south. While the All Progressives’ Congress lost important political figures, the party also convinced some powerful Peoples Democratic Party politicians in the South to <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/11/28/pdp-senator-defects-to-apc/">defect</a> in the run-up to the elections. </p>
<p>Another factor was that, while <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00358539608454292">rotational politics</a> necessitated a northern candidate, Atiku’s candidacy may not have resonated particularly strongly in the south.</p>
<p>Besides his regional origin, Atiku as a candidate also had his weaknesses, including a credibility problem due to the riches he collected during his time in office as vice-president and his old age. For many voters in both the north and the south, Atiku represented a return to the past rather than a break from traditional Nigerian politics. </p>
<p>Buhari’s first term record has little to show for it, but it is in the end still possible that he did win the elections, simply because the Peoples Democratic Party could not provide any viable alternative.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112965/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leila Demarest does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the end, Buhari possibly won simply because the Peoples Democratic Party wasn’t offering a viable alternative.Leila Demarest, Assistant Professor of African Politics, Institute of Political Science, Leiden UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1128062019-03-05T14:15:13Z2019-03-05T14:15:13ZNigeria: what Muhammadu Buhari’s re-election means for Africa’s biggest economy<p>Muhammadu Buhari was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/26/muhammadu-buhari-to-claim-victory-in-nigerias-presidential-election">re-elected as president</a> of Nigeria in late February, winning 56% of the vote share in a poll shrouded in controversy. After polling day was <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-election-delay-why-and-what-next-111962">delayed by a week</a> on the eve of the election, the result was met with <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/buhari-reelected-nigeria-president-electoral-commission-190227033031779.html">allegations of election irregularities</a>. Turnout was low, and only <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-47381382">35% of those registered voted</a>, compared to 44% when Buhari was elected in 2015. </p>
<p>The competition was fierce. The race for the presidency was between the incumbent, Buhari, and a pro-market multimillionaire, Atiku Abubakar, the opposition leader. Before the poll, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-12/election-may-mark-turning-point-for-nigeria-s-battered-stocks">investors predicted</a> victory for Abubakar could have boosted Nigeria’s medium-term economic growth, though there were concerns over historic <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-08/nigeria-s-tough-decision-former-dictator-or-alleged-kleptocrat">allegations of corruption</a> surrounding him. He denies any wrongdoing.</p>
<p>Buhari, a former military general, focused his first term in office on tackling <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/nigeria-sees-more-high-level-corruption-convictions-under-buhari">corruption</a> and security issues but was <a href="https://theconversation.com/buhari-failed-to-fix-nigerias-economy-but-he-may-still-have-the-edge-110196">widely criticised</a> for neglecting the economy. Some of his economic policies drove investors away and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-19/nigeria-s-half-measures-on-currency-regime-are-only-half-working">were detrimental to growth</a>. </p>
<p>In 2015, Nigeria introduced <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-10/oil-fell-unemployment-soared-and-now-nigeria-votes-quicktake">capital controls</a>, measures to limit the flow of foreign capital in and out of the domestic economy. This was of concern to investors who feared they may not be able to repatriate funds out of the country. In the same year, the government pegged Nigeria’s currency, the naira, to the US dollar, which <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-currency/nigerian-naira-tumbles-30-percent-after-peg-removed-idUSKCN0Z61F7">significantly reduced foreign currency reserves</a>. The peg was eventually removed in 2016 – a decision welcomed by investors, though it <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b0753e96-36cd-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f">sharply devalued the naira</a> against the dollar.</p>
<p>Since Buhari was first elected in May 2015, Nigeria’s stock market has been the world’s worst performer, losing <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/nigeria-s-vote-the-numbers-the-surprises-the-market-reaction">almost half its value</a> in dollar terms, according to Bloomberg. And stocks <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-28/bank-stocks-in-nigeria-fall-most-since-2016-after-buhari-victory">fell immediately</a> after Buhari’s re-election was announced. This came after the Nigerian stock exchange suffered a <a href="http://businesselitesafrica.com/trending/nse-loses-540-6-million-after-election-delays/">$540.6m loss</a> in one day after the elections were postponed by a week. </p>
<p>Still, international bond markets <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/article/nigerian-bonds-rally-after-buhari-wins-reelection-20190227-00695">reacted positively</a> to the election result, and there was a rise in dollar-denominated bonds, often favoured by international investors. Naira bonds <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-27/nigeria-s-vote-the-numbers-the-surprises-the-market-reaction">also rose</a> after the results were announced, indicating bond traders are more focused on the currency and bond yields on offer. </p>
<h2>Buhari’s priorities</h2>
<p>In his first term, Buhari focused a great deal on Nigeria’s security challenges. Knowing he faces a strong political opposition and that people are desperate for economic growth and its benefits, he now needs to turn his attention more squarely on the economy. This requires a shift in the government’s economic policy to embrace much more market-driven policies, such as the decision his government took in 2016 to remove the naira peg against the dollar. </p>
<p>To boost domestic business and investment, the government also needs to encourage private sector investment in infrastructure. So far, the government has permitted the private sector to invest in some infrastructure projects, particularly <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/02/dangote-5-others-partner-fg-on-road-construction-across-states/">road building</a>, but this needs to be expanded to others, including rail.</p>
<h2>Finance and industry</h2>
<p>Buhari’s victory is likely to mean stability for the financial sector, particularly if the Central Bank of Nigeria governor, Godwin Emefiele, retains his position. Abubakar had <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-16/abubakar-will-change-nigeria-s-central-bank-governor-if-elected">threatened</a> to remove the governor if he won. If Emefiele stays and his term, which comes to an end in June, is renewed, this would support stability in the financial markets. It would mean no radical changes to monetary and exchange rate policies, which can affect the price and value of financial assets, are likely to occur. Also, no major changes are expected to occur in the industrial sector, although there is continuing urgency to develop Nigeria’s manufacturing base to boost employment. </p>
<p>The country’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-budget-idUSL5N16V360">high fiscal deficit, debt levels</a> and <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/corruption-rank">corruption levels</a> could no doubt dampen investor confidence in Nigeria. Buhari also faces <a href="https://theconversation.com/buhari-failed-to-fix-nigerias-economy-but-he-may-still-have-the-edge-110196">criticism</a> over his inexperienced policy advisers, which could diminish the credibility of new policy announcements in the future. It’s also unclear whether there is going to be a cabinet reshuffle, or if key ministers, such as the finance minister, will remain in post. </p>
<p>Still, major changes in the policy environment are not expected under Buhari’s second term in office. As investors like predictability, policy continuity could help improve investor sentiment.</p>
<p>Nigeria’s governance also needs to be underpinned by principles built around the rule of law, which are critical for building any viable market economy. The six dimensions of governance, coined by the World Bank’s <a href="http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/#home">World Governance Indicators Project</a>, speak to the heart of the challenges Nigeria faces. These are: voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. Strengthening these six dimensions could help set Nigeria along the path of recovery and then growth again.</p>
<p>With all its woes, Nigeria still remains the largest economy in Africa and the largest oil producer on the continent. With a huge market and a huge potential for foreign investment, every wise investor should have their eyes on this country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112806/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iwa Salami does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Investors favoured Muhammadu Buhari’s opponent, Atiku Abubakar. So what are the Nigerian president’s economic priorities?Iwa Salami, Senior Lecturer in Financial Law and Regulation, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1124212019-02-25T11:57:45Z2019-02-25T11:57:45ZWhy Nigeria’s election was an improvement on previous polls<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/260678/original/file-20190225-26162-lcms4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters in the presidential elections in Abuja, Nigeria. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA-EFE/Stringer</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The close-run election contest between incumbent Muhammadu Buhari and former vice-president Atiku Abubakar was largely peaceful. But it was not a perfect performance given that there were some pockets of violence that led to the death of at least 16 people. Olayinka Ajala gives his views on the poll.</em></p>
<p><strong>How well did the country’s Independent National Electoral Commission’s manage the vote?</strong></p>
<p>Although the election can’t be described as a perfect performance, it was a noticeable improvement on previous elections conducted since the country returned to democracy in 1999.</p>
<p>The commission understandably received a lot of stick for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/16/nigeria-postpones-election-just-hours-before-polls-due-to-open">pushing back the election by a week</a>. But it has acquitted itself well <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/02/resign-now-pdp-tells-inec-chairman/">by resisting intimidation</a> from the political parties to conduct a fairly credible election. </p>
<p>Although there were pockets of violence – in one incident in River State <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/scores-killed-in-nigeria-poll-violence-say-election-observers-19477310">16 people died</a> – the process was peaceful in most of the states. There was <a href="https://www.sunnewsonline.com/presidential-nass-polls-inec-admits-challenges-extends-voting-in-some-polling-units/">delayed voting</a> in some polling units but the commission was able to douse the tension by extending the voting hours in the affected areas. </p>
<p>Faulty voter card readers were a key source of complaints by several political parties during the 2015 elections. This time around, issues relating to malfunctioning of electronic card readers were <a href="https://www.naijanews.com/2019/02/23/nigeriadecides2019-inec-replaces-faulty-card-reader-in-ekiti-state/">promptly addressed</a> by the electoral commission’s mobile team. </p>
<p>The postponement of the elections by a week also allowed the electoral commission to <a href="http://saharareporters.com/2019/02/15/inec-replaces-burnt-card-readers-14-lgas-anambra">replace the card readers destroyed in arson attacks</a> on three of its state offices.</p>
<p>The electoral commission’s work has been commended by a number of organisation’s. Two notable ones were the All Progressives Congress whose chairman Adams Oshiomhole <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/02/oshiomhole-commends-inec-over-conduct-of-polls/">commended</a> it’s work as did the Centre for Transparency Advocacy.</p>
<p>Despite the challenges faced by the electoral commission in the run-up to the poll, the commission was able to conduct a credible election in a very challenging atmosphere.</p>
<p><strong>What other factors affected the election?</strong></p>
<p>One of the key threats prior to the elections was insecurity in the already volatile regions of the country as well as in several electoral hotspots. Frequent <a href="https://theconversation.com/buhari-hasnt-solved-nigerias-security-threats-will-voters-punish-him-110038">attacks by Boko Haram</a> and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-conflict-is-a-result-of-environmental-devastation-across-west-africa-91694">cycle of clashes between farmers and herdsmen</a> north of the country had created apprehensions before the elections. </p>
<p>True to these fears, there were multiple blasts and gun shots around the North-Eastern region of the country on the morning of the elections. Boko Haram factions <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/02/boko-haram-iswap-claims-attack-on-maiduguri-during-election/">fired rockets</a> in Borno State capital Maiduguri to dissuade residents from participating in the elections. The military, however, was <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/23/africa/nigeria-elections-blasts-intl/index.html">able to take charge of the situation</a> and allow the residents to vote in the elections.</p>
<p>Although the Boko Haram ambush was quickly foiled, there were pockets of violence around the country that could affect on the outcome of the elections. This is especially at the national assembly levels in the regions affected.</p>
<p>In a repeat of the 2015 elections, Rivers State – which is the largest oil producing state – experienced the highest number of election related fatalities. This resulted in the cancellation of some local government elections. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2019/02/23/soldier-five-others-killed-in-election-violence-in-rivers/">At least six people were killed</a> in Rivers State including an army officer in clashes between political party hirelings and security operatives. Rivers State is considered a major hotspot in the country during elections not only because of its position as the largest oil producing state but also because it is home to several militant groups agitating for the control of oil resources in the Niger Delta region. </p>
<p>There were also <a href="https://www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1494734/killed-nigeria-election-violence">clashes</a> in areas that include Lagos, Ibadan and Bayelsa.</p>
<p>Although these pockets of violence would affect the regions where the violence took place, it’s unlikely to affect the overall outcome of the elections as electoral commission insisted it would cancel elections where there are outbreaks of violence. Elections in the affected areas in <a href="https://www.pulse.ng/news/politics/inec-cancels-elections-in-lagos-rivers-anambra/p6hkfn7">Rivers have already been cancelled</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Can the elections be described as free and fair?</strong></p>
<p>To a large extent the conduct of the elections can be described as free and fair. The electoral commission, security forces and most candidates have conducted themselves reasonably well. </p>
<p>As for the electorate, there is evidence that Nigerians were more willing to play their part. The electorate monitored political parties very closely, an indication in my view that democracy in Nigeria is maturing</p>
<p>It also seems that people were prepared to take action (sometimes by taking the law in their hands) to ensure that there wasn’t any interference in the election process. For example, in Lagos <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2019/02/24/ballot-box-snatcher-burnt-to-death-in-lagos/">irate voters</a> attacked and killed a one member of a vigilante group who attempted to destroy ballot papers. Although the police force has warned the electorates from engaging in “jungle justice” the willingness of voters to confront political thugs is a new development in Nigeria’s democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112421/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The electorate monitored political parties very closely, an indication that democracy in Nigeria is taking root.Olayinka Ajala, Associate Lecturer and Conflict Analyst, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1115742019-02-15T11:09:19Z2019-02-15T11:09:19ZNigerian elections: why poor economic performance is front and centre<p>On February 16, more than 84m eligible voters in Nigeria go to the polls to elect the next president of the country and members of the national assembly. There are nearly 80 candidates competing for the country’s top job but the contest can be viewed to be mainly between the incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, aged 76, of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) and the former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, aged 72, of the People’s Democratic Party. </p>
<p>Buhari, a former military head of state from 1983 to 1985, was re-elected as a civilian president in 2015 and is campaigning for another four years at the helm. He has <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/nigeria-president-muhammadu-buhari-honoured-promises-190211144124045.html">vowed</a> to expunge the country of corruption, while Abubakar, who was the vice president from 1999 to 2007, is campaigning on the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/working-nigeria-abubakar-launches-poll-campaign-181119141314962.html">promise</a> to get Nigeria “working again”. </p>
<p>Indeed, Nigeria is in dire need of all that has been promised. But given the past records of the two main candidates, it would be near delusional to hope for meaningful change if they are re-elected. </p>
<p>Buhari’s handling of the economy has been somewhere between poor and appalling. The same could be said of past administrations, including when Atiku was vice president from 1999 to 2007. </p>
<p>Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, with more than 198m people. It is also the continent’s largest economy, with a GDP in 2017 of <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html">US$376 billion</a>. It holds the world’s tenth-largest gas reserves and eleventh-largest <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf">oil reserves</a> – some 37 billion barrels, as of 2017.</p>
<p>Despite this abundance of natural and human resources, the country’s development indicators are nothing to write home about. As I document in my book, Nigeria’s economy <a href="https://www.cambridgescholars.com/financialisation-capital-accumulation-and-economic-development-in-nigeria">faces a number of challenges</a>. </p>
<h2>Serious under-performer</h2>
<p>Over 75% of Nigeria’s population lives below the US$3.20-a-day poverty line and more than half of the population is multi-dimensionally poor – they are deprived of access to basic health, education and standards of <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/MPI">living</a>. What’s more, the inequality gap in the country has widened over recent years, with the top 10% sharing more than 40% of the national income and the bottom 20% living on less than 5% of the national <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/data/source/world-development-indicators">income</a>. According to Oxfam, Nigeria has the unenviable distinction of being at the bottom of the commitment to reducing inequality index (CRI) since <a href="http://www.inequalityindex.com">2017</a>. </p>
<p>Its record on social spending (on health, education and social protection) is also <a href="https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/620553/rr-commitment-reducing-inequality-index-2018-091018-en.pdf">abysmal</a>. One in 10 children in the country does not reach their fifth birthday, and more than 10m children do not go to school. Of these, 60% are girls. Average life expectancy at birth in Nigeria is around 52 years, which is significantly lower than the sub-Saharan African region’s average of 62 years. </p>
<p>The country’s infrastructures are in a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/064f9730-c8bc-11e8-86e6-19f5b7134d1c">very sorry state</a>. More than two thirds of the population does not have access to constant electricity, safe water and good sanitation. The roads and transport facilities are in poor condition despite the billions of dollars budgeted for their construction and maintenance. </p>
<p>The implications of this infrastructural inadequacy and insecurity is the decline of investment in the economy, which then results in high unemployment and underemployment. The inadequate provision of basic infrastructure means that private companies have to take on these costs, making it more expensive for them to do business in Nigeria. Plus, weak institutions, in the form of weak rule of law and poor quality regulations, also contribute to the increase in the cost of production. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259031/original/file-20190214-1733-1tmb6e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259031/original/file-20190214-1733-1tmb6e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259031/original/file-20190214-1733-1tmb6e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259031/original/file-20190214-1733-1tmb6e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259031/original/file-20190214-1733-1tmb6e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259031/original/file-20190214-1733-1tmb6e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259031/original/file-20190214-1733-1tmb6e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259031/original/file-20190214-1733-1tmb6e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nigeria’s unemployment rate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ejike Udeogu</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These inadequacies, together with fierce competition from low-cost production from abroad (China especially) and low domestic-demand for locally manufactured goods (due to the high poverty rate), all contribute to undermining the viability of any productive process in the country. The result is an under-performing economy that is overly-reliant on its oil and mineral wealth to prop up its GDP – but this does not benefit a large proportion of the population.</p>
<h2>Road to recovery?</h2>
<p>To solve this, whoever wins the Nigerian elections desperately needs an ambitious industrial policy. The country has huge economic potential that can be met if governed well. The state needs to play a strategic role in the development process, beyond just providing the right infrastructure and a conducive environment. Right now the economy is far too dependent on exporting oil and other minerals. Emphasis needs to shift to fostering knowledge-based, high-tech economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259033/original/file-20190214-1742-cfaqhu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259033/original/file-20190214-1742-cfaqhu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259033/original/file-20190214-1742-cfaqhu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259033/original/file-20190214-1742-cfaqhu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259033/original/file-20190214-1742-cfaqhu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259033/original/file-20190214-1742-cfaqhu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259033/original/file-20190214-1742-cfaqhu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259033/original/file-20190214-1742-cfaqhu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nigeria’s exports in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/data#use-permissions">"The Atlas of Economic Complexity," Center for International Development at Harvard University</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indonesia, for example, is at a similar level of development to Nigeria and is similarly rich in natural resources. But, as the graph below shows, it has a much more diverse economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259034/original/file-20190214-1758-1u7v96a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259034/original/file-20190214-1758-1u7v96a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259034/original/file-20190214-1758-1u7v96a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259034/original/file-20190214-1758-1u7v96a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259034/original/file-20190214-1758-1u7v96a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259034/original/file-20190214-1758-1u7v96a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259034/original/file-20190214-1758-1u7v96a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259034/original/file-20190214-1758-1u7v96a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indonesia’s exports 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/data#use-permissions">"The Atlas of Economic Complexity," Center for International Development at Harvard University</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The next Nigerian government must follow the lead of many developed and emerging countries in funding research and development (R&D) activities that drive innovation. The current lack of R&D and innovation is one of the main reasons the country is still struggling to achieve any meaningful development. Lastly, the state also needs to create an environment that attracts, grows and retains talent. This means developing its dilapidated education and health infrastructure and creating institutions that recognise and reward talent. </p>
<p>And, amid all this, corruption must be tackled. Like a cankerworm, it has gnawed at Nigeria for so long and has also contributed significantly to its persistent underdevelopment. If Nigeria is to make any meaningful inroad towards development, more also needs to be done in the fight against graft. Buhari’s efforts on this front have been seen by his critics as selective. And Atiku, on the other hand, has been accused by his detractors as a ruthless businessman-politician who has milked the system for <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1e9e9d52-2e0d-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8">decades</a>. So, Nigeria’s voters face two uninspiring choices in the coming election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ejike Bob Udeogu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Buhari’s handling of the economy has been somewhere between poor and appalling. But the same could be said of past administrations.Ejike Bob Udeogu, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1101962019-01-27T09:13:28Z2019-01-27T09:13:28ZBuhari failed to fix Nigeria’s economy. But he may still have the edge<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254934/original/file-20190122-100273-1ao0mbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A hawker sells clocks on a roadside in Nigeria's oil rich Bayelsa state.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Tife Owolabi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Muhammadu Buhari’s election four years ago as Nigerian president was greeted with <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-32141703">great enthusiasm, and expectation</a>. US President Barack Obama invited him to the White House less than two months after his inauguration, an honour rarely accorded to newly elected African leaders. Many Nigerians saw Buhari as a messiah rescuing them from years of economic disempowerment, institutionalised corruption and insecurity.</p>
<p>These high hopes were unsurprising. The Nigerian economy, though growing at a robust rate, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/toward-inclusive-growth-in-nigeria/">wasn’t benefiting most Nigerians</a>. Unemployment, especially among young people, was <a href="https://qz.com/africa/999641/the-unemployment-rate-in-nigeria-has-climbed-for-nine-consecutive-quarters/">widespread and growing</a>. The World Bank estimated Nigeria’s <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/middle-east-and-africa/nigerias-renewal-delivering-inclusive-growth">poverty rate to be as high as 70%</a>, an embarrassing number given that the country is ranked as the eighth largest oil exporter in the world. </p>
<p>The result of the toxic combination of high joblessness and poverty rates, is a life expectancy of 55 years, one of the <a href="https://www.who.int/countries/nga/en/">lowest in developing countries</a>.</p>
<p>As Buhari prepares to go to the polls, pundits have been analysing his scorecard and asking whether he deserves another four years in office. </p>
<p>What is clear is that, this time around, his re-election campaign has not been greeted with the same level of enthusiasm. Some analysts, including the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit, have gone as far as to <a href="https://www.pulse.ng/news/politics/economist-magazine-says-buhari-will-lose-2019-election/ncm7eg4">predict</a> that he will lose the election. </p>
<p>Why the change of fortunes? The answer seems to lie in the fact that most of the things Nigerians complained about in 2015 are still unresolved. In particular, unemployment, poverty and economic disempowerment remain firmly in place. </p>
<p>Since Buhari came to power, Nigeria’s unemployment rate has <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/unemployment-rate">more than doubled</a> from 10.4% in January 2016 to 23.1% in July 2018. In June last year CNN <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/26/africa/nigeria-overtakes-india-extreme-poverty-intl/index.html">reported</a> that Nigeria had overtaken India as the country with the largest number of people living in extreme poverty. About 87 million Nigerians, or half the population, live on less than $1.90 per day.</p>
<p>The big question is: can Buhari win reelection amid his disappointing economic performance? I believe that he will, in fact, win the election. But this will be for reasons to do with the weakness of other candidates, rather than his own strengths.</p>
<h2>Economic performance</h2>
<p>When he came to power in 2015, Buhari promised to tackle three interrelated problems: corruption, insecurity and the economy. Of the three, Nigerians regarded <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-32905067">economic problems as paramount</a>. But the administration appears to have focused on corruption and security issues and paid less attention to the economy. </p>
<p>For example, Buhari failed to prevent an impending <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-37228741">recession</a> that followed the collapse of oil prices in 2015. This was because he didn’t prioritise the economy and took too long to articulate an economic transformation strategy. </p>
<p>Another example of lack of focus on the economy was his meeting with US President Donald Trump in April 2018. Buhari asked for <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/world/trump-gives-buhari-banned-military-aircraft-14724854">fighter jets</a>, not economic support. </p>
<p>Critics also point to the fact that Buhari ceded the management of the economy to his vice president Yemi Osinbajo. Though a brilliant lawyer, Osinbajo had no background or experience in economics. To make matters worse, Osinbajo surrounded himself with incompetent and inexperienced advisers.</p>
<p>Buhari claimed he was unable to jump-start the economy because of falling oil prices and dwindling government revenue. Before he came to power the oil price was <a href="https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/6188.pdf">as high as $108 per barrel</a>. It <a href="https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/6188.pdf">plummeted precipitously to $63</a> the month he was sworn in as president. The oil price continued to slide during the early stages of his administration, reaching an all-time low of $35 per barrel in February 2016.</p>
<p>The collapse affected Buhari’s ability to put together a coherent budget. For instance, his 2016 budget had a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-budget-idUSL5N16V360">deficit of over 2.2 trillion Naira</a>. His attempt to borrow $30 billion to finance the deficit was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-budget/update-1-nigerian-senate-rejects-buharis-plan-to-borrow-30-billion-abroad-idUSL8N1D2450">vehemently opposed by the country’s lawmakers</a>. Nor was public opinion favourable about an external loan. This forced the administration to pare down the number of projects it intended to undertake. </p>
<p>Because of the administration’s inability to implement an expansionary fiscal policy, the economy has been grappling with anaemic growth since Buhari’s election. The country went into recession in 2016 followed by a rebound to about 2% in 2018. But the IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2015&ey=2023&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=19&pr1.y=10&c=694&s=NGDP_RPCH&grp=0&a">projects</a> that growth will remain weak at an annual average of about 1.9% from 2019 to 2023.</p>
<h2>Anti-corruption scorecard</h2>
<p>Buhari’s scorecard in fighting corruption has been mixed. On the one hand, he has prosecuted high-profile politicians, civil servants and retired military officers for corruption and secured convictions in a handful of cases. His administration has also recovered billions of Naira in stolen assets from corrupt Nigerians. </p>
<p>Scores of corrupt politicians and government officials, including the Chief Justice of the country’s Supreme Court, are currently undergoing trials for various forms of financial impropriety. </p>
<p>But Buhari’s anti-corruption efforts have been marred by the perception that they have been selective and targeted mostly at members of the main opposition party, the People’s Democratic party. </p>
<p>And his failure to prosecute a prominent state governor who is one of his close political allies, after the governor was shown on video collecting several thousand dollars in bribes, has accentuated the perception that he is only interested in prosecuting his political enemies. </p>
<p>Another political ally, a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, also got a pass from Buhari after being credibly accused of corrupt practices.</p>
<p>Despite these shortcomings, Buhari’s campaign against corruption is regarded by many Nigerians as the most intense the country has ever seen.</p>
<h2>Hobbesian choice</h2>
<p>Buhari is likely to win not because he has fulfilled the expectations of Nigerians, but because his main opponent, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, is a weak candidate who carries a lot of baggage. </p>
<p>Abubakar is a very prominent and wealthy businessman. But his business credentials and <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/atiku-abubakar-nigerias-perennial-presidential-hopeful-20181008">the source of his wealth are controversial</a>. Many believe he made his money through cronyism and questionable activities rather than through genuine entrepreneurship. </p>
<p>Nigerians will be faced with a Hobbesian choice between two problematic candidates. In that choice, Buhari seems to have an edge over Abubakar.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110196/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Onyeiwu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most of the things Nigerians complained about in 2015 are still unresolved – unemployment, poverty and economic disempowerment.Stephen Onyeiwu, Professor and Chair of the Economics Department, Allegheny CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1100382019-01-21T13:41:50Z2019-01-21T13:41:50ZBuhari hasn’t solved Nigeria’s security threats. Will voters punish him?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254486/original/file-20190118-100279-19nobyi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigerian soldiers clearing a Boko Haram camp in Borno State in 2015.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Stringer</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Weeks away from another democratic transition in Nigeria, electoral campaigns are in full gear for the dozens of candidates vying for the <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/201901160343.html">presidency in the country</a>. Four years from the historic 2015 elections – the first democratic transition <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2015-03-31/goodnight-goodluck-nigerias-president-concedes-election-defeat">not marred by post-election violence</a> – there is palpable tension due to insecurity in some parts of the country.</p>
<p>The 2015 election was won, partly, on a promise by incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari that he would end the Boko Haram insurgency in the country and guarantee security across the country. But the surge in terrorism in the North-East is evidence that Buhari has failed to keep one of his major campaign promises. The security situation in the country remains volatile. </p>
<p>In addition to the Boko Haram insurgency, there have been several pockets of violence in other parts of the country. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-clashes-are-on-the-rise-between-farmers-and-herdsmen-in-the-sahel-95554">conflict between herdsmen and farmers</a> has resulted in the loss of thousands of lives. And it’s deepened ethnic tensions in the North Central region of Nigeria. </p>
<p>Several attempts have been made to end the violence. But the killings have continued unabated. This, in turn, has led to the president losing key political allies. Several states in the region have also <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/277737-breaking-benue-governor-ortom-defects-to-pdp.html">threatened not to vote for Buhari</a> in the 2019 elections.</p>
<p>Other regions also remain deeply insecure, including the south, south east and the Niger Delta.</p>
<p>The catalogue of security failures shows the extent to which the Buhari government has failed to address the country’s security challenges. The main opponent in next month’s election <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-46897051/nigeria-election-atiku-abubakar-says-his-age-is-not-an-issue">Atiku Abubakar</a> has also promised to address the country’s security challenges. But it remains to be seen if the electorate will give the incumbent government a chance to continue its promised “change” agenda, or whether they will change the president himself and opt for someone else that could do a better job. </p>
<h2>Recurring issues</h2>
<p>One of the key campaign issues leading to the 2015 election was the high level of insecurity in several parts of the country. Prior to the election, Boko Haram held sway in several local governments across three states (Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states). Buhari ran a “change” mantra and <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/what-buhari-promised-nigerians/">campaigned vigorously promising</a> to end the menace of Boko Haram “permanently”. </p>
<p>Prior to the elections in 2015, he stated </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I will bring permanent peace and solution to the insurgency issues in the North-East; the Niger Delta; and other conflict prone states and areas such as Plateau, Benue, Bauchi, Borno, Abia, Taraba, Yobe and Kaduna in order to engender national unity and social harmony. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Soon after his inauguration in 2015, Buhari charged the military chiefs <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/188316-buhari-charges-nigerias-military-chiefs-to-defeat-boko-haram-in-3-months.html">to end Boko Haram within three months</a>.</p>
<p>Almost four years later, Boko Haram seems to have been more invigorated and in 2018 the military suffered its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/23/nigerian-islamists-kill-scores-of-soldiers-in-military-base-attack">highest fatalities against the group</a>.</p>
<p>Boko Haram split in 2016, leading to a splinter group called Islamic State- West Africa (ISIS-WA) emerging. The new group became prominent in 2018 after a <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-potentially-more-sinister-threat-in-boko-harams-split">series of attacks on military bases</a>. ISIS-WA led by the son of the former leader (Mohammed Yusuf)- Abu Musab al-Barnawi, <a href="https://thedefensepost.com/2019/01/15/nigeria-military-struggles-islamic-state-iswa-part-1-upsurge-in-attacks/">claimed 23 attacks</a> in West Africa between August and November 2018. </p>
<p>The group captured a large cache of military hardware. It was also responsible for the <a href="https://www.sbmintel.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/201809_Road-to-Maiduguri.pdf">death of at least 600 Nigerian soldiers</a> in 2018.</p>
<p>Towards the end of 2018, the group seemed to be emboldened with several attacks on communities and military bases. Between July and October 2018, Boko Haram <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/boko-haram-jihadists-attack-military-base-in-ne-nigeria-20181028">attacked nine military bases</a>. It also overran the Multinational Joint Task Force <a href="https://punchng.com/breaking-boko-haram-sacks-two-military-bases-in-baga/">(MNJTF) base in Baga, Borno state</a>. The numbers and intensity of attacks show that the battle against the group is far from over. </p>
<h2>Unrest and tension in the south</h2>
<p>Apart from the unrest in the North-Eastern and North-Central regions of the country, agitation for secession in the <a href="https://qz.com/africa/1077801/biafra-and-nnamdi-kanu-nigerias-army-siege-to-crush-biafra-calls-isnt-winning-much-support/">South-East region has also been rife</a>. Violent protests resulting in fierce crackdown by the military and police have added to the security challenges faced by the country. </p>
<p>Groups such as Movement for the Actualisation of Sovereign State of Biafra and Indigenous People of Biafra have led several protests which have threatened the peace and security of the region. The government has reached out to the groups on occasion. But the ability of the groups to stage large protests and the <a href="https://www.pulse.ng/news/local/massob-2019-election-will-be-bloody-group-says/ev5xvyb">threat to disrupt the 2019 elections</a> is already causing further anxiety in the region.</p>
<p>The government has also not been able to find a permanent solution to the unrest in the Niger Delta. Thousands of youths are on the government amnesty payroll and any disruption in the payments has the potential to destabilise the nation. A delay in monthly stipends in 2016 led to a renewal of hostilities and the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2018/03/20/amnesty-and-new-violence-in-the-niger-delta/#4eb78024263f">formation of new groups </a> such as the Niger Delta Avengers, Red Scorpions and the Niger Delta Greenland Justice Movement. </p>
<p>In addition, new groups emerge almost on an annual basis demanding for enrolment in the amnesty programme. This situation results in what could be termed an “amnesty cycle” where groups of young men engage in sporadic violence in order to be integrated into the <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/3000-ex-militants-demand-inclusion-in-amnesty-programme/">amnesty programme</a>.</p>
<p>Considering the inability of Buhari to stem the tide of insecurity in the country in his first term in office, winning a reelection will be a difficult task.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari is hoping to be reelected but he’s fallen short on the country’s security challenges.Olayinka Ajala, Associate Lecturer and Conflict Analyst, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1067892018-11-25T09:19:51Z2018-11-25T09:19:51ZNigeria’s 2019 election: a two-horse race with uninspiring candidates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246677/original/file-20181121-161627-kfal47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=515%2C0%2C1575%2C1068&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Atiku Abubakar and incumbent Muhammadu Buhari (right) are the two frontrunners in Nigeria's presidential race.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/STR</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Almost all of Nigeria’s 68 political parties have wrapped up their primaries and chosen candidates to stand in the country’s February 2019 general election. The poll is likely to be yet another two-horse race: a contest between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP). These are the only two parties to win the presidency since the end of military rule in 1999. The Conversation Africa’s Julius Maina spoke to Olayinka Ajala about the emerging campaign issues and the surprises so far.</em></p>
<p><strong>Who are the main candidates for the February election?</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/10/the-31-presidential-candidates-for-2019/">Thirty one aspirants</a> have emerged to contest the presidential election. That number will probably be reduced before the elections, as several smaller parties are in talks to form coalitions. </p>
<p>But there are only two leading contenders – the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari, and Atiku Abubakar, who was vice-president under President Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007.</p>
<p>Both are contesting on the platforms of the two largest parties in Nigeria. </p>
<p>Apart from the two main contenders, other popular names on the list are former governors <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/10/the-31-presidential-candidates-for-2019/">Donald Duke and Olusegun Mimiko</a>, alongside <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-ezekwesili-minister-turned-activist-who-wants-to-be-president-104975">Obi Ezekwesili</a>. She’s the former minister of education and co-founder of Transparency International.</p>
<p><strong>What are the emerging campaign issues?</strong></p>
<p>The campaign issues are similar to those that featured in the 2015 presidential elections. These included political violence, particularly an end to the Boko Haram insurgency and the recent conflict between herdsmen and farmers which has claimed thousands of lives.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-clashes-are-on-the-rise-between-farmers-and-herdsmen-in-the-sahel-95554">Why clashes are on the rise between farmers and herdsmen in the Sahel</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Corruption will also loom large. Buhari claims to have curtailed corruption, particularly since the introduction of the single treasury account that has <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323584046_The_Impact_of_Treasury_Single_Account_on_the_Liquidity_of_Banks_in_Nigeria">reduced “leakages” in the country’s finances</a>. But the state of the economy and the increase in youth unemployment has negatively affected the current government’s image. The Atiku campaign has capitalised on this. </p>
<p>Other issues that have emerged include a lack of infrastructure, lopsided political appointments - as the president is often accused of neglecting federal character when making political appointments as well as the president’s health. These are likely to dominate the campaign when it <a href="http://dailypost.ng/2018/05/03/2019-no-political-campaign-december-2018-inec-warns/">officially kicks off in December</a>. </p>
<p>Buhari’s health is likely to feature extensively given that he spent about 15% of his first term in office receiving <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/buharis-health-reemerging-factor-2019-nigerian-elections">medical treatment abroad</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Have there been any surprises ahead of the 2019 ballot?</strong></p>
<p>The first major surprise was the emergence of Atiku as the People’s Democratic Party candidate. Atiku, one of the founding members of the PDP, emerged as the flag bearer for the party despite being relatively quiet politically in the last few years following his movement from PDP to APC and then back to PDP.</p>
<p>The second surprise was former president Olusegun Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku. Earlier in the year Obasanjo wrote an <a href="https://punchng.com/full-letter-obasanjo-writes-buhari-asks-president-to-halt-2019-ambition/">open letter to Buhari</a> advising the president not to seek a second term. He argued that Buhari had under-performed and was incapable of understanding the problems the country faces. Subsequently, Obasanjo formed a movement to unseat the incumbent president. </p>
<p>Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku came as a shock to most Nigerians because of his frosty relationship with the former vice-president. Obasanjo <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/278869-exclusive-god-will-never-forgive-me-if-i-support-atiku-for-president-obasanjo.html">famously stated in August 2018</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>If I support Atiku for anything, God will not forgive me. If I do not know, yes. But once I know, Atiku can never enjoy my support. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The sudden turn around by the former president just two months later to <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/289774-breaking-2019-obasanjo-forgives-atiku-endorses-him-for-president.html">“forgive and endorse”</a> Atiku came as a surprise to most Nigerians.</p>
<p><strong>What do the primaries tell us about women’s participation?</strong></p>
<p>Despite the large number of aspirants for the 2019 elections, women and young people remain underrepresented. Although <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/09/2019-why-we-want-buharis-job-by-6-female-aspirants/">six women emerged before the presidential primaries</a>, the number dropped to three immediately after the primaries. Also, several young people were unable to contest in the primaries because of the cost of nomination forms. </p>
<p>Elections are <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-45450399">costly affairs</a> in Nigeria. The ruling party charges candidates $125,000 (£97,000) to be able to stand for nominations. The People’s Democratic Party also charged $33,000 (£26,000) for its nomination forms. This is in a country where the minimum wage is <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/11/minimum-wage-increasewill-make-no-difference-if-ali-baba/">less than USD$100 a month</a>. </p>
<p>The government’s insincerity in supporting women and young people was laid bare in June 2018 when the president passed a bill titled <a href="http://saharareporters.com/2018/06/04/not-too-young-run-or-too-old-rule-erasmus-ikhide">“Not too young to Rule”</a>. The bill was designed to support the political aspiration of young people interested in pursuing a political career. Minutes after signing the legislation, the president commended the national assembly for passing the bill – but warned that young people would still <a href="http://sunnewsonline.com/2019-presidency-we-wont-wait-for-you-youths-tell-buhari/">have to wait till 2023</a> before they would actually be given the opportunity.</p>
<p>With just a few months to the polls, most Nigerians remain frustrated and concerned because neither of the two leading presidential aspirants offer any real hope. </p>
<p>The president has been accused of being too slow and too ill to handle the rigours of the position. The multiple <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/289930-2019-atiku-must-face-corruption-integrity-test-apc.html">allegations of corruption and fraud</a> levelled against Atiku, meanwhile, continue to taint his image and hopes of gaining power from the Buhari administration. </p>
<p>Unless a credible consensus candidate emerges, the 2019 presidential elections remains a two-horse race with none of the contenders really appealing to the populace.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106789/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the large number of aspirants for Nigeria’s 2019 elections, women and young people remain underrepresented.Olayinka Ajala, Associate Lecturer and Conflict Analyst, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.