tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/extreme-weather-3799/articlesExtreme weather – The Conversation2024-03-22T12:34:47Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221082024-03-22T12:34:47Z2024-03-22T12:34:47ZClimate change is shifting the zones where plants grow – here’s what that could mean for your garden<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583569/original/file-20240321-20-wkg9tp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4019%2C2474&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Climate change complicates plant choices and care. Early flowering and late freezes can kill flowers like these magnolia blossoms.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Kasson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/the-vernal-equinox-marks-the-first-day-of-spring-what-does-that-mean">arrival of spring</a> in North America, many people are gravitating to the gardening and landscaping section of home improvement stores, where displays are overstocked with eye-catching seed packs and benches are filled with potted annuals and perennials. </p>
<p>But some plants that once thrived in your yard may not flourish there now. To understand why, look to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s recent update of its <a href="https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/">plant hardiness zone map</a>, which has long helped gardeners and growers figure out which plants are most likely to thrive in a given location. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583488/original/file-20240321-28-3mclw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A U.S. map divided into colored geographic zones with a numbered key." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583488/original/file-20240321-28-3mclw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583488/original/file-20240321-28-3mclw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583488/original/file-20240321-28-3mclw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583488/original/file-20240321-28-3mclw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583488/original/file-20240321-28-3mclw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583488/original/file-20240321-28-3mclw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583488/original/file-20240321-28-3mclw8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The 2023 USDA plant hardiness zone map shows the areas where plants can be expected to grow, based on extreme winter temperatures. Darker shades (purple to blue) denote colder zones, phasing southward into temperate (green) and warm zones (yellow and orange).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/">USDA</a></span>
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<p>Comparing the 2023 map to the previous version from 2012 clearly shows that as climate change warms the Earth, plant hardiness zones are shifting northward. On average, the coldest days of winter in our current climate, based on temperature records from 1991 through 2020, are 5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 Celsius) warmer than they were between 1976 and 2005. </p>
<p>In some areas, including the central Appalachians, northern New England and north central Idaho, winter temperatures have warmed by 1.5 hardiness zones – 15 degrees F (8.3 C) – over the same 30-year window. This warming changes the zones in which plants, whether annual or perennial, will ultimately succeed in a climate on the move.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583491/original/file-20240321-24-nsmj8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="U.S. map showing large areas colored tan, denoting a 5-degree increase in average winter minimum temperatures." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583491/original/file-20240321-24-nsmj8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583491/original/file-20240321-24-nsmj8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583491/original/file-20240321-24-nsmj8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583491/original/file-20240321-24-nsmj8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583491/original/file-20240321-24-nsmj8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583491/original/file-20240321-24-nsmj8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583491/original/file-20240321-24-nsmj8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">This map shows how plant hardiness zones have shifted northward from the 2012 to the 2023 USDA maps. A half-zone change corresponds to a tan area. Areas in white indicate zones that experienced minimal change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2023/11/new-usda-plant-hardiness-zone-map-shows-most-of-southeast-has-gotten-one-half-zone-warmer/">Prism Climate Group, Oregon State University</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=frEPl6IAAAAJ&hl=en">plant pathologist</a>, I have devoted my career to understanding and addressing plant health issues. Many stresses not only shorten the lives of plants, but also affect their growth and productivity. </p>
<p>I am also a gardener who has seen firsthand how warming temperatures, pests and disease affect my annual harvest. By understanding climate change impacts on plant communities, you can help your garden reach its full potential in a warming world.</p>
<h2>Hotter summers, warmer winters</h2>
<p>There’s no question that the temperature trend is upward. From 2014 through 2023, the world experienced the <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/world-just-sweltered-through-its-hottest-august-on-record">10 hottest summers ever recorded</a> in 174 years of climate data. Just a few months of sweltering, unrelenting heat can significantly affect plant health, especially <a href="https://extension.psu.edu/cool-season-vs-warm-season-vegetables">cool-season garden crops</a> like broccoli, carrots, radishes and kale. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583468/original/file-20240321-26-b3sckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Radishes sprouting in a garden bed." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583468/original/file-20240321-26-b3sckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583468/original/file-20240321-26-b3sckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583468/original/file-20240321-26-b3sckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583468/original/file-20240321-26-b3sckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583468/original/file-20240321-26-b3sckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583468/original/file-20240321-26-b3sckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583468/original/file-20240321-26-b3sckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Radishes are cool-season garden crops that cannot withstand the hottest days of summer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Kasson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Winters are also warming, and this matters for plants. The USDA defines plant hardiness zones based on the coldest average annual temperature in winter at a given location. Each zone represents a 10-degree F range, with zones numbered from 1 (coldest) to 13 (warmest). Zones are divided into 5-degree F half zones, which are lettered “a” (northern) or “b” (southern). </p>
<p>For example, the coldest hardiness zone in the lower 48 states on <a href="https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/">the new map</a>, 3a, covers small pockets in the northernmost parts of Minnesota and has winter extreme temperatures of -40 F to -35 F. The warmest zone, 11b, is in Key West, Florida, where the coldest annual lows range from 45 F to 50 F. </p>
<p>On the <a href="https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/system/files/US_Map_2012.jpg">2012 map</a>, northern Minnesota had a much more extensive and continuous zone 3a. North Dakota also had areas designated in this same zone, but those regions now have shifted completely into Canada. Zone 10b once covered the southern tip of mainland Florida, including Miami and Fort Lauderdale, but has now been pushed northward by a rapidly encroaching zone 11a. </p>
<p>Many people buy seeds or seedlings without thinking about hardiness zones, planting dates or disease risks. But when plants have to contend with temperature shifts, heat stress and disease, they will eventually struggle to survive in areas where they once thrived. </p>
<p>Successful gardening is still possible, though. Here are some things to consider before you plant:</p>
<h2>Annuals versus perennials</h2>
<p>Hardiness zones matter far less for <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/annual">annual plants</a>, which germinate, flower and die in a single growing season, than for <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/perennial">perennial plants</a> that last for several years. Annuals typically avoid the lethal winter temperatures that define plant hardiness zones. </p>
<p>In fact, most annual seed packs don’t even list the plants’ hardiness zones. Instead, they provide sowing date guidelines by geographic region. It’s still important to follow those dates, which help ensure that frost-tender crops are not planted too early and that cool-season crops are not harvested too late in the year.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583497/original/file-20240321-19-q24j99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Orange flowers blooming with other plants and grasses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583497/original/file-20240321-19-q24j99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583497/original/file-20240321-19-q24j99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583497/original/file-20240321-19-q24j99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583497/original/file-20240321-19-q24j99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583497/original/file-20240321-19-q24j99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583497/original/file-20240321-19-q24j99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583497/original/file-20240321-19-q24j99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">California poppies are typically grown as annuals in cool areas, but can survive for several years in hardiness zones 8-10.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/FWtHc">The Marmot/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<h2>User-friendly perennials have broad hardiness zones</h2>
<p>Many perennials can grow across wide temperature ranges. For example, hardy fig and hardy kiwifruit grow well in zones 4-8, an area that includes most of the Northeast, Midwest and Plains states. Raspberries are hardy in zones 3-9, and blackberries are hardy in zones 5-9. This eliminates a lot of guesswork for most gardeners, since a majority of U.S. states are dominated by two or more of these zones. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, it’s important to pay attention to plant tags to avoid selecting a variety or cultivar with a restricted hardiness zone over another with greater flexibility. Also, pay attention to instructions about proper sun exposure and planting dates after the last frost in your area. </p>
<h2>Fruit trees are sensitive to temperature fluctuations</h2>
<p>Fruit trees have two parts, the rootstock and the scion wood, that are <a href="https://extension.unh.edu/sites/default/files/migrated_unmanaged_files/Resource003733_Rep5323.pdf">grafted together to form a single tree</a>. Rootstocks, which consist mainly of a root system, determine the tree’s size, timing of flowering and tolerance of soil-dwelling pests and pathogens. Scion wood, which supports the flowers and fruit, determines the fruit variety. </p>
<p>Most commercially available fruit trees can tolerate a wide range of hardiness zones. However, stone fruits like peaches, plums and cherries are more sensitive to temperature fluctuations within those zones – particularly abrupt swings in winter temperatures that create unpredictable freeze-thaw events. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583498/original/file-20240321-18-w6ef0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Packages for hardy fig and kiwi seedlings." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583498/original/file-20240321-18-w6ef0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583498/original/file-20240321-18-w6ef0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583498/original/file-20240321-18-w6ef0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583498/original/file-20240321-18-w6ef0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583498/original/file-20240321-18-w6ef0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583498/original/file-20240321-18-w6ef0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583498/original/file-20240321-18-w6ef0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Following planting instructions carefully can maximize plants’ chances of success.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Kasson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>These seesaw weather episodes affect all types of fruit trees, but stone fruits appear to be more susceptible, possibly because they flower earlier in spring, have fewer hardy rootstock options, or have bark characteristics that make them more vulnerable to winter injury. </p>
<p>Perennial plants’ hardiness increases through the seasons in a process called <a href="https://extension.umd.edu/resource/hardening-vegetable-seedlings-home-garden/">hardening off</a>, which conditions them for harsher temperatures, moisture loss in sun and wind, and full sun exposure. But a too-sudden autumn temperature drop can cause plants to die back in winter, an event known as <a href="https://extension.psu.edu/winterkill-of-turfgrasses">winter kill</a>. Similarly, a sudden spring temperature spike can lead to premature flowering and subsequent frost kill.</p>
<h2>Pests are moving north too</h2>
<p>Plants aren’t the only organisms constrained by temperature. With milder winters, southern insect pests and plant pathogens are expanding their ranges northward. </p>
<p>One example is <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/blight">Southern blight</a>, a stem and root rot disease that affects 500 plant species and is caused by a fungus, <em>Agroathelia rolfsii</em>. It’s often thought of as affecting hot Southern gardens, but has become more commonplace recently in the Northeast U.S. on tomatoes, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-keep-your-jack-o-lantern-from-turning-into-moldy-maggoty-mush-before-halloween-190526">pumpkins and squash</a>, and other crops, including <a href="https://extension.psu.edu/apple-disease-southern-blight">apples in Pennsylvania</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583501/original/file-20240321-26-h3tdv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A stem dotted with small round growths." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583501/original/file-20240321-26-h3tdv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583501/original/file-20240321-26-h3tdv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583501/original/file-20240321-26-h3tdv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583501/original/file-20240321-26-h3tdv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583501/original/file-20240321-26-h3tdv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583501/original/file-20240321-26-h3tdv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583501/original/file-20240321-26-h3tdv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Southern blight (small round fungal structures) at the base of a tomato plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ag.purdue.edu/department/arge/swpap/southern-blight-tomato.html">Purdue University</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Other plant pathogens may take advantage of milder winter temperatures, which leads to prolonged saturation of soils instead of freezing. Both plants and microbes are less active when soil is frozen, but in wet soil, microbes have an opportunity to colonize dormant perennial plant roots, leading to more disease.</p>
<p>It can be challenging to accept that climate change is stressing some of your garden favorites, but there are thousands of varieties of plants to suit both your interests and your hardiness zone. Growing plants is an opportunity to <a href="https://theconversation.com/take-a-break-from-your-screen-and-look-at-plants-botanizing-is-a-great-way-to-engage-with-life-around-you-210616">admire their flexibility</a> and the features that enable many of them to thrive in a world of change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222108/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Kasson receives funding from the US Department of Agriculture.</span></em></p>The US Department of Agriculture has updated its plant hardiness zone map, which shows where various plants will grow across the country. Gardeners should take note.Matt Kasson, Associate Professor of Mycology and Plant Pathology, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257372024-03-21T18:01:47Z2024-03-21T18:01:47ZSchool’s out: how climate change is already badly affecting children’s education<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582542/original/file-20240318-20-6dukft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The education of students in countries like Sudan is already being negatively affected by the extremes of climate change. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-boy-school-south-sudan-juba-2428302529">Richard Juilliart/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Schools across <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/18/south-sudan-closes-schools-in-preparation-for-45c-heatwave">South Sudan</a> have been ordered to close as a heat wave of 45°C sweeps across the country. In recent years, severe flooding has already caused major disruptions to schooling in South Sudan where, on average, children complete less than five years of formal <a href="https://unesdoc.unesco.org/in/documentViewer.xhtml?v=2.1.196&id=p::usmarcdef_0000387120&file=/in/rest/annotationSVC/DownloadWatermarkedAttachment/attach_import_73bb9372-6eb2-4593-9406-f7a33c2f66d5?_=387120eng.pdf&locale=en&multi=true&ark=/ark:/48223/pf0000387120/PDF/387120eng.pdf#p98">education across their lives</a>.</p>
<p>As researchers interested in both climate change and learning, we’ve been surprised that most public debate in this area concerns how best to teach children about climate change as part of the curriculum. Recently, we examined a less discussed, but arguably much more consequential, question: How is climate change impacting children’s education worldwide?</p>
<p>In a recent paper published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01945-z">Nature Climate Change</a>, we reviewed studies linking climate change-related events or “climate stressors” to education outcomes. One of the clearest connections was between heat exposure and reduced academic performance. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w21157/w21157.pdf">study in the US</a> found that adolescents’ maths scores decreased significantly on days above 26°C. <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/726007">In China</a>, hotter day-of-test temperatures were associated with a drop in exam performance equal to losing a quarter of a year – or several months – of schooling.</p>
<p>But it’s not just test days that matter. Studies show that raised temperatures also affect learning over longer time periods. For example, pupils’ <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0095069616301887">test scores suffered</a> when there were more hot days across the school year and even when the hotter weather occurred <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20180612">three to four years before</a> exam day.</p>
<p>Our review also highlights how climate-related regional disasters like wildfires, storms, droughts and floods are keeping many children out of school entirely. Floods can prevent children from <a href="https://jamba.org.za/index.php/jamba/article/view/138/285">travelling to school</a> and cause <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/51/article/738666/pdf">damage</a> to school buildings and materials, which disrupts learning and lowers test scores.</p>
<p>In developing countries, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014292115001427">storms</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02869-1">droughts</a> commonly cause children to leave school permanently to join the workforce and support their families. Children in higher-income countries are not immune. They miss school days due to <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.4.1.109">hurricanes</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-06050-9#:%7E:text=We%20find%20no%20significant%20impacts,closures%20lasting%203%E2%80%935%20days.">wildfires</a> and these absences have measurable effects on education outcomes.</p>
<p>The impacts of climate disasters can also affect children before they are born with consequences that reverberate across their lives. For example, children whose mothers were pregnant during <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36129196/">Hurricane Sandy</a> were more likely to be diagnosed with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), a condition that can make schooling more challenging.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/710066">India</a>, researchers found that raised temperatures lead to lower test scores due to crop failure and malnutrition, highlighting the importance of indirect links between climate stressors and subsequent school participation and learning.</p>
<h2>Educational injustice</h2>
<p>Our analysis suggests that climate change will exacerbate existing inequalities in global education access and attainment, with already disadvantaged groups facing the largest learning setbacks. In the US, heat had <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-00959-9">worse effects</a> on exam scores for racial and ethnic minorities and children living in lower-income school districts. </p>
<p>Following a super typhoon in the Philippines, children whose families had fewer financial resources and smaller social networks were <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014292115001427">more likely to drop out</a> of school than their better-resourced neighbours. In contexts where girls’ education is less prioritised than boys’, their school attendance and exam scores have suffered more following climate change stressors such as <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/environment-and-development-economics/article/rainfall-shocks-cognitive-development-and-educational-attainment-among-adolescents-in-a-droughtprone-region-in-kenya/E432EC63DAD24849A991E67C7B387844">droughts</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014292115001427">storms</a>.</p>
<p>Globally, regions where people are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change – in terms of risk of harmful stressors occurring and resources available to adapt – are also regions where children already receive fewer years of schooling. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582546/original/file-20240318-25-n98wau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World map in green on left side, another in pink on right with shaded areas to indicate average years of formal education compared to vulnerability to climate change in each country" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582546/original/file-20240318-25-n98wau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582546/original/file-20240318-25-n98wau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582546/original/file-20240318-25-n98wau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582546/original/file-20240318-25-n98wau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=192&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582546/original/file-20240318-25-n98wau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582546/original/file-20240318-25-n98wau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582546/original/file-20240318-25-n98wau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">These maps show the average years of formal education (left) and vulnerability to climate change by country (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>The impacts of climate change on education are already widely visible. While the scale of the problem is daunting, there are many ways to take action. Most critically, global heating urgently needs to be limited by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. </p>
<p>At the same time, children’s education must be protected from climate change stressors that are already occurring. Possible measures include installing cooling technologies, effective disaster response planning, building <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/29/we-dont-need-air-con-how-burkina-faso-builds-schools-that-stay-cool-in-40c-heat">stressor-resilient schools</a> and addressing systemic global inequalities related to socioeconomic, gender and racial discrimination. </p>
<p>Preventing harm to children’s education is a worthy goal in itself. But improving education can also contribute to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01701-9">greater awareness</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01171-x">climate literacy</a>, while <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01444">mitigating</a> climate change and making children more resilient in the face of climate stressors. </p>
<p>Education can help fight climate change. But we must also fight climate change to prevent harm to education. Without action, the future of young people around the world hangs in the balance.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helen Louise Berry has received funding from the National Health & Medical Research Council, the Australian Research Council and various other national and international competitive and consultancy research funding sources. She is affiliated with The Australian Greens. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caitlin M Prentice, Francis Vergunst, and Kelton Minor do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Teaching children about the environmental crisis can help fight climate change, but climate change is already negatively affecting children’s education around the globe.Caitlin M Prentice, Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Psychology, University of OsloFrancis Vergunst, Associate Professor, Psychosocial Difficulties, University of OsloHelen Louise Berry, Honorary Professor, Centre for Health Systems and Safety Research, Macquarie UniversityKelton Minor, Postdoctoral Research Scientist, Computational Social and Behavioural Science, Columbia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2253612024-03-18T13:41:37Z2024-03-18T13:41:37ZMalawi and maize: prices have spiked on the back of bad weather and trade bans<p>Maize is the <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/3bd9d66e-1614-4bdd-9971-56f44ed73455/content">leading staple</a> food in Malawi and crucial for food security. Typically, local production from smallholder farmers meets and exceeds annual requirements of around <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/amid-maize-bumper-harvests-malawi-food-insecurity-reigns#:%7E:text=Malawi's%20annual%20maize%20requirement%20is,opposite%20has%20been%20the%20case.">3 million metric tonnes</a>.</p>
<p>The country, however, is currently facing a crisis with <a href="https://response.reliefweb.int/malawi/food-security/reports">4.4 million Malawians (22% of the population)</a> being food insecure. </p>
<p>This is due firstly to a poor harvest in 2023. The subsequent shortages led to a spike in prices which hit households hard. Such severe impacts on households could have been avoided, however, with <a href="https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/800690-01-ACF-Position-Papers-COP27-Food-Prices-05.pdf">more integrated regional</a> markets to buffer against such shocks.</p>
<p>We analysed the dynamics behind these developments. We concluded that regional trade was not working well. Supply shocks driven by extreme weather were exacerbated by ad hoc trade bans and by apparent market speculation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/enforcing-competition-would-ease-food-price-hikes-in-east-and-southern-africa-182879">Enforcing competition would ease food price hikes in east and southern Africa</a>
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<p>These factors added hundreds of millions of dollars to the total costs of maize for ordinary Malawians from August 2023 to January 2024. Our calculations indicate that households incurred additional spending of around US$200 million due to the elevated maize prices. Prices were elevated by <a href="https://sway.cloud.microsoft/W8DD8rBEbGpa6pOG?ref=Link">50%</a>, in the period when most households in Malawi had to purchase maize as <a href="https://massp.ifpri.info/files/2024/02/Working-Paper-45-Welfare-impacts-of-seasonal-maize-price-fluctuations-in-Malawi.pdf">smallholders had exhausted their own production</a>. Sharp price hikes have been seen in earlier years, such as in <a href="https://www.competition.org.za/s/AMO_Price-tracker-18_Oct_14112022.pdf">Kenya in late 2022</a>, for similar reasons.</p>
<p>These numbers should be sounding a loud warning for expected supply volatility in future. Our view is that stakeholders, together with the national and regional competition authorities, should monitor markets and advocate for fair prices. They should intervene where appropriate if there are signs of anti-competitive conduct.</p>
<h2>The dynamics</h2>
<p>Trade from neighbours with good harvests could have mitigated the impact of supply shocks. </p>
<p>In 2023, facing high fertilizer prices, <a href="https://sway.cloud.microsoft/W8DD8rBEbGpa6pOG?ref=Link">Malawi imported</a> much smaller fertilizer volumes, including supplies for its <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/malawi-government-misses-deadline-on-aip-implementation/">Affordable Inputs Programme</a>. The <a href="https://www.mwapata.mw/_files/ugd/dd6c2f_decdb3b481b243388d835f560a28fc9d.pdf?index=true">programme</a> is a government initiative which seeks to promote food security and reduce poverty in Malawi by improving access to affordable farming inputs. The decision hurt crop yields. Maize harvests were also hit hard by <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/cyclone-freddy-malawi-aftermath#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9C%5BCyclone%20Freddy%5D%20caused%20soil,the%20productivity%20of%20agricultural%20land.">Cyclone Freddy</a> early in 2023. </p>
<p>The reduction in domestic maize supply would be expected to result in somewhat higher maize prices in Malawi. But Malawi’s neighbours in east Africa had abundant maize supply from the 2023 harvest. Prices in Malawi shouldn’t have increased above the costs of imports. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/zambia-can-meet-growing-food-demand-how-to-fix-whats-standing-in-its-way-187373">Zambia can meet growing food demand: how to fix what's standing in its way</a>
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<p>Malawi prices shot up following <a href="https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/Default.aspx?id=MI">the 2023 May harvest period</a> (Figure 1). The prices of US$650 per metric tonne were far above those of neighbouring countries (such as $250 per tonne in south-west Tanzania). In addition, the prices hugely exceeded the import parity price based on adding transport and related costs for importing into Malawi.</p>
<p>From August to October, prices continued to be marked up substantially above the import parity price of around $370 per tonne. The import parity price represents a reasonable price and is calculated using the maize prices from Tanzania and Zambia, which averaged $300 per tonne over the period, and <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/627b83c72818b8346e9227a0/1652261854313/WP+Assessing+agriculture+food+markets+in+Eastern+and+Southern+Africa+an+agenda+for+regional+competition+enforcement.pdf">transport costs of US$50-80 per tonne</a>. </p>
<p>In 2024 there are widespread concerns again about production in some southern African countries, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/dry-weather-hits-southern-africas-farmers-putting-key-maize-supplies-at-risk-how-to-blunt-the-impact-224974#:%7E:text=South%20Africa%2C%20Zambia%20and%20Zimbabwe,hit%20by%20heatwaves%20and%20dryness.">Zambia</a>, because of persisting dry weather conditions. At the same time, there is abundant production and good growing conditions in countries such as Tanzania, which remains a substantial maize net exporter, having <a href="https://dailynews.co.tz/maize-boom-in-season-of-surplus/">experienced good harvests</a>.</p>
<h2>Trade and prices</h2>
<p>The sharp reduction in prices in Malawi in November 2023 followed 40,000 tonnes of maize being <a href="https://sway.cloud.microsoft/W8DD8rBEbGpa6pOG?ref=Link">imported by the Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation</a> from Mozambique to be distributed all over the country. Prices dropped to US$458 per tonne. However, the currency depreciation of almost 50% in the same month meant that prices in local currency did not fall. </p>
<p>The currency depreciation flowed through to huge local price increases in December as prices increased in US dollar terms to their highest levels: $670 per tonne. The December increases were due in large part to <a href="https://farmersreviewafrica.com/malawi-suspends-unmilled-maize-imports-from-kenya-and-tanzania-sights-necrosis-disease/">a ban initiated by Malawi</a> on maize imports from Tanzania at the same time as Zambia was restricting maize trade to Malawi. The holders of maize stocks were able to earn staggering excess margins over the import parity prices that would have applied if trade had been possible.</p>
<p>In January 2024, maize prices declined to $446 as the trade restrictions with Tanzania were relaxed again. Market participants <a href="https://sway.cloud.microsoft/W8DD8rBEbGpa6pOG?ref=Link">reported an influx of maize</a> into the market from imports and traders with storage facilities. Even though prices declined in January, they were still inconsistent with fair market outcomes. </p>
<h2>Harm to consumers</h2>
<p>The highest prices from August to December coincided with the period when in a normal year most households in rural areas have exhausted their own produce and would have to <a href="https://massp.ifpri.info/files/2024/02/Working-Paper-45-Welfare-impacts-of-seasonal-maize-price-fluctuations-in-Malawi.pdf">buy additional maize</a>. </p>
<p>On average each person in Malawi <a href="https://massp.ifpri.info/files/2024/02/Working-Paper-45-Welfare-impacts-of-seasonal-maize-price-fluctuations-in-Malawi.pdf">consumes about 9.5kg of maize per month</a>. With an average overcharge on maize in the order of $200 per tonne, which is calculated as the difference between the prevailing price in Malawi and the import parity price, this means that <a href="https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/3818/download/49047">an average household of 4.3 people</a> spent an additional $8 per month to maintain their consumption. This assumes that the increases are passed through by millers. The cost shock also affects animal feed, affecting prices of foods such as poultry and eggs, which has not been considered in this analysis.</p>
<p>In conclusion, the sustained excess margins in Malawi indicate that regional trade is not working well. Supply shocks, such as those due to extreme weather, are exacerbated by ad hoc trade bans as well as by apparent market speculation, as conveyed to us by market participants.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225361/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Roberts works for the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED) at the University of Johannesburg and is an advisor to the Shamba Centre for Food and Climate which has provided funding for CCRED's research on African food markets. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Namhla Landani works for the African Market Observatory (AMO), an initiative of the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development at the University of Johannesburg. The AMO receives funding from the Shamba Centre for Food and Climate for research on African Food Markets.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olwethu Shedi works for the African Market Observatory (AMO), an initiative of the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development housed at the University of Johannesburg. The AMO receives funding from the Shamba Centre for Food and Climate.</span></em></p>Approximately 22% of Malawians are food insecure, partly because of the poor maize harvest in 2023.Simon Roberts, Professor of Economics and Lead Researcher, Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, UJ, University of JohannesburgNamhla Landani, Economist at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247072024-03-05T16:30:30Z2024-03-05T16:30:30ZHow countries in conflict zones can recover from floods – lessons from Pakistan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578963/original/file-20240229-20-88ie0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A family crosses the flooded streets of Pakistan in 2010. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatevisuals.org/search/?searchQuery=flood%20pakistan">Gerhard JˆrÈn/Climate Visuals</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than 6,000 people died and at least 11,000 <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/18/libya-floods-conflicting-death-tolls-greek-aid-workers-die-in-crash#:%7E:text=Confusion%20has%20emerged%20over%20the,killed%20elsewhere%20in%20eastern%20Libya">reportedly disappeared</a> in the aftermath of the destructive flood that hit Libya on <a href="https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/devastating-flooding-libya">September 10 2023</a>. </p>
<p>Infrastructure in north-eastern Libya has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/libya-floods-the-drowning-of-derna-was-a-man-made-disaster-decades-in-the-making-213797">seriously damaged</a>. The economy continues to suffer and companies that are crucial partners for reconstruction and development have been forced to close due to <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/90695">flood damage</a>. With more than <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/unhcr-update-libya-september-2023-enar">40,000 people</a> still displaced, labour shortages continue and essential services, including healthcare, remain disrupted. </p>
<p>This severe flooding highlighted the vulnerability of Libya – a country already grappling with political instability, <a href="https://www.rulac.org/publications/libya-a-short-guide-to-the-conflict">ongoing conflict</a> and a deteriorating economy – to climate-related threats. </p>
<p>Libya and other flood-hit countries, especially in conflict zones, could learn a lot from Pakistan, where the plans for recovery from similar floods in 2022 differ in some significant ways. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s response to its floods included a comprehensive <a href="https://www.undp.org/pakistan/publications/pakistan-floods-2022-post-disaster-needs-assessment-pdna">post-disaster needs assessment</a>, a strategy that outlines clear priorities for rebuilding livelihoods, agriculture and public infrastructure over the coming five years. </p>
<p>Libya’s approach lacks this forward planning. Without conducting a comprehensive assessment of what a country needs, meaningful recovery efforts cannot be effectively carried out.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/what-sendai-framework">United Nations Sendai framework</a>, a global agreement that guides countries in reducing the risks of natural disasters, emphasises the importance of “building back better” in recovery to reduce vulnerabilities of a place and its people. </p>
<p>However, most disaster management doesn’t focus on long-term recovery. My research in disaster recovery and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=c5aWJIsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">climate change adaptation</a> indicates that the best route for the development of comprehensive and sustainable plans is for the government and relevant organisations to rebuild affected communities, repair damaged infrastructure and provide ongoing social, economic and health support. </p>
<p>Now that initial response and relief efforts have been rolled out across Libya’s affected regions, the focus needs to shift to consider the long-term recovery of these communities. </p>
<h2>The damage of debt</h2>
<p>The country also needs to consider how it funds its recovery. Developing countries tend to rely heavily on loans to <a href="https://floodresilience.net/resources/item/2020-floods-in-tabasco-lessons-learned-for-strengthening-social-capital/">fund recovery programmes</a>. Countries, including Pakistan, are often forced to continue paying existing loans in the aftermath of disasters instead of spending new funds on recovery. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s journey towards recovery from the major floods of <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/news/pakistan-flooding-one-year-later">2010 and 2011</a> is a stark example of the challenges countries face when burdened with heavy debt. In order to rebuild and rehabilitate, Pakistan borrowed a staggering estimated <a href="https://devinit.org/resources/filling-the-gap-addressing-climate-driven-crises-pakistan/">US$20 billion to US$40 billion</a>. This came at a significant cost.</p>
<p>In 2021, the burden of repaying debts amounted to <a href="https://devinit.org/resources/filling-the-gap-addressing-climate-driven-crises-pakistan/">US$11.9 billion annually</a> accounting for 32% of the Pakistan government’s revenue. Consequently, Pakistan’s capacity to effectively respond to the 2022 floods was severely restricted. Ironically, the country accumulated more debt in addressing the aftermath of these floods than it received in humanitarian support in 2022.</p>
<p>Countries like Libya need to carefully manage their borrowing to avoid long-term economic challenges and debt burdens. Pakistan’s experience showed that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/pakistan-floods/">private donations</a> from within the country can be a significant source of funds, alongside the international giving that is more common.</p>
<p>Libya could explore alternative funding sources such as international grants, loans from international financial institutions, redirecting existing budget allocations and generating additional revenue domestically through stimulating economic growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Close up shot of boy drinking clean fresh water from outside tap" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2010 Pakistan was hit by one of the largest natural disasters the world has ever seen. Ten years’ worth of rain falling in just two weeks resulted in extreme flooding across much of the country. Access to clean drinking water became a huge issue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatevisuals.org/search/?searchQuery=flood%20pakistan">Vicki Francis/DFID/Climate Visuals</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Road to recovery</h2>
<p>There is also a more literal question of how to rebuild. In Pakistan, the reconstruction of damaged roads, bridges, power stations, schools, hospitals and homes involved a collaborative approach. Inspired by the self-resilience housing model developed by Yasmeen Lari, <a href="https://www.arct.cam.ac.uk/staff/professor-yasmeen-lari">Pakistan’s first female architect</a>, local community involvement was key. </p>
<p>This model also promotes sustainability and generates local employment by using locally sourced materials, such as mud bricks. Instead of relying on conventional and expensive building materials like cement blocks, local people make mud bricks using locally sourced clay and other natural materials that are easily replaceable in the future. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s self-resilience housing approach taps into the benefits of short supply chains and creates local jobs in the process. Libya needs to draw lessons from this strategy for rebuilding infrastructure. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Looking down over sandy ground, brown mud bricks drying in vast rows on the ground, a few trees in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mud bricks are made by local communities in Pakistan as part of efforts to improve resilience.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bricks-made-mud-putting-row-2404684131">nadeemshahzad/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recovery efforts should not only focus on rebuilding physical infrastructure. Strengthening economic, social and environmental resilience must be prioritised too. As seen in Pakistan, millions of people are <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/pakistan-flood-victims-crises-collide-fuel-growing-hunger">still struggling</a> to find a sustainable means of livelihood and <a href="https://www.redcross.org.uk/stories/disasters-and-emergencies/world/climate-change-and-pakistan-flooding-affecting-millions">clean water</a> remains a pressing issue in many affected areas. </p>
<p>Social and psychological support is just as important. That includes counselling services and mental health systems to address trauma, grief and loss. </p>
<p>A 2022 <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2022.890671">study</a> by Iranian researchers revealed that post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms were particularly prevalent after extreme flood events. Another <a href="https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2022-pakistan-floods/">2022 report</a> showed that Pakistan flood survivors who were given professional psychological support recovered more rapidly and completely.</p>
<p>To pave the way for recovery in Libya, additional support will be needed, particularly in terms of temporary shelters, medicine and access to health facilities and sanitation services. </p>
<p>Coordinated local action and stable governance will help fragile regions like Libya and Pakistan to strengthen communities and prepare for more inevitable climate shocks. Peace building needs to be an integral part of climate crisis recovery, prevention and readiness.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola is a Visiting Scientist at the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security. He is grateful to have received grants supporting his research on climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.</span></em></p>Our expert in disaster recovery and climate change adaptation calls for a longer-term response to conflict zones affected by severe flooding, such as Libya and Pakistan.Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola, Visiting Scientist, United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231532024-03-04T18:25:48Z2024-03-04T18:25:48ZGlobal warming may be behind an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold spells<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575431/original/file-20240213-30-h2gkre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5991%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bradford-uk-02-08-2024-electronic-2423109221">bennphoto / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global warming caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases is already affecting our lives. Scorching summers, more intense heatwaves, longer drought periods, more extended floods, and wilder wildfires are consequences linked to this warming.</p>
<p>One less obvious consequence of global warming is also getting growing attention from scientists: <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/extreme-cold-snaps-could-get-worse-as-climate-warms/#:%7E:text=Many%20studies%20have%20shown%20that,and%20understood%20from%20physical%20reasoning.">a potential increase</a> in the intensity and frequency of winter cold snaps in the northern hemisphere.</p>
<p>Weather phenomena like the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/26/uk-braces-for-beast-from-the-east-as-met-office-warns-of-snow">Beast from the East in winter 2018</a>, the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-texas-freeze-february-2021">cold spell of Arctic air</a> that reached as <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/02/17/texas-winter-storm-2021-stories/">far South as Texas in February 2021</a>, or the storm that left <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/world/europe/spain-snow-storm-filomena.html">Madrid</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2021/feb/16/unusually-heavy-snow-blankets-athens-in-pictures">Athens</a> unusually covered in snow for days in early 2021 are becoming more common.</p>
<p>Some of the mechanisms that lead to their occurrence are strengthened by global warming. Key climate mechanisms, like exchanges of energy and air masses between different altitude ranges in the atmosphere, are evolving in ways expected to cause an increase in both the intensity and duration of cold snaps. These link to the behaviour of a region in the high atmosphere called the stratosphere.</p>
<p>Winter cold snaps have major societal impacts, from direct effects on health and loss of life, to effects on transport and infrastructure, surges in energy demand and damage to agricultural resources. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Acropolis in 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Acropolis in Athens covered in snow in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/athens-greece-february-16-2021-acropolis-2258307795">Savvas Karmaniolas / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This winter, we have seen these effects over large parts of Europe and the US, with flight cancellations, airport closures, road queues and drivers trapped in extreme cold temperatures. There have also been sharp increases in energy demand to cope with indoor heating, an increase in cold-related hospital admissions and the activation of services needed to assist the most vulnerable.</p>
<p>We need to develop forecasting tools that can predict these events further in advance.</p>
<h2>Polar vortex</h2>
<p>Some of these cold snaps are linked to disruptions in a seasonal atmospheric phenomenon called the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). </p>
<p>In the northern hemisphere, this vortex consists of masses of cold air centred over the north pole, surrounded by a jet of very strong westerly winds between 15-50km above ground. These spinning winds act as a wall and keep cold air confined to the Arctic region, stopping it from travelling to lower latitudes. </p>
<p>Something that can disrupt the vortex is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), when the stratosphere experiences an abrupt increase in temperature due to energy and momentum being transferred from lower to higher altitudes. </p>
<p>When a major SSW occurs, the wall of strong winds around the polar stratosphere can break, allowing cold air to escape the polar vortex and travel down to lower atmospheric altitudes and lower latitudes. When that air approaches the Earth’s surface, significant cold spells can occur.</p>
<p>Even when SSWs are not strong enough to break the vortex, they can weaken it. This can cause polar air circulation patterns to meander further south into lower latitudes, reaching populated areas of North America and Eurasia, instead of staying nearer the north pole. Those areas can then experience temperatures tens of degrees lower than their winter average.</p>
<p>Under climate change, the transfer of energy from the lowest layers of the Earth’s atmosphere to the higher stratospheric layer is changing and seems to be disrupting the polar vortex to a greater degree. A <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/1259/2023/">study has shown</a> that the strength and duration of SSWs in the stratosphere have increased over the last 40 years. This increase is also expected to result in stronger winter cold snaps at surface levels.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Polar Vortex" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The polar vortex is a crucial component in cold snaps affecting the Northern Hemisphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/vortex_NH.html">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Forecasting challenge</h2>
<p>Accurately forecasting these cold snaps is crucial for helping society prepare appropriately for them. Developing computer-based forecasting tools that reproduce realistic interactions between the lower levels of the troposphere and the stratospheric region is an essential step towards this goal.</p>
<p>To correctly simulate the behaviour of the stratosphere and how it interacts with the troposphere, forecasting tools must include realistic descriptions of the abundance and distribution of stratospheric ozone. Ozone influences the interaction of air masses outside and inside the vortex, and therefore also the transport of colder air from higher to lower altitudes.</p>
<p>However, including all the chemical processes that ozone is involved in, at the resolution needed to predict these weather events, is prohibitive in terms of the computing power needed. This is even truer if we want to predict events one season ahead. </p>
<p>My research looks at ways to improve forecasting models to better capture the type of stratospheric behaviour that leads to these cold spells. To do this I have developed alternatives that can realistically simulate processes in the stratosphere, including aspects of ozone chemistry, using less computing power. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/4277/2022/">study I led</a>, we used these alternatives to simulate interactions between the ozone layer, temperature and solar radiation in the global computer model used to produce some of the best weather forecasts in the world.</p>
<p>The experiments we did with this model showed that including this realistic alternative representation of stratospheric ozone led to improvements in simulations of temperature distribution in the stratosphere. This means that it can help provide useful information about triggers of cold spells like SSWs.</p>
<p>Developing and using these alternatives in climate modelling is a significant milestone towards what we call seamless prediction: using the same computer modelling tools to predict both weather and climate. This allows for a more accurate establishment of causal links between climate change and extreme weather events.</p>
<p>A question many may be wondering is if this extreme cold could be counteracting global warming. Unfortunately, not. While this winter has brought days of extremely cold temperatures and heavy snowfall in the northern hemisphere, the current summer in the southern hemisphere has seen some of the hottest days on record for populated areas of Australia, with temperatures of around 50ºC.</p>
<p>Global warming makes extreme weather more extreme, and scientific studies are starting to provide proof that this also applies to extreme winter cold spells. Developing the best possible modelling tools is essential to predict the evolution of extreme weather events in the coming years so that we can be better prepared for them.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beatriz Monge-Sanz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cold snaps can affect everyday services and infrastructure, putting lives at risk.Beatriz Monge-Sanz, Senior Researcher, Department of Physics, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246142024-02-28T19:15:46Z2024-02-28T19:15:46ZWhat we know about last year’s top 10 wild Australian climatic events – from fire and flood combos to cyclone-driven extreme rain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578474/original/file-20240228-28-s80sff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C0%2C3085%2C2120&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Japan Meteorological Agency, Himawari-8</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fire. Flood. Fire and flood together. Double-whammy storms. Unprecedented rainfall. Heatwaves. Climate change is making some of Australia’s weather more extreme. In 2023, the country was hit by a broad range of particularly intense events, with economy-wide impacts. Winter was the warmest in a record going back to 1910, while we had the driest September since at least 1900.</p>
<p>We often see extreme weather as distinct events in the news. But it can be useful to look at what’s happening over the year. </p>
<p>Today, more than 30 of Australia’s leading climate scientists <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/the-state-of-weather-and-climate-extremes-2023/">released a report</a> analysing ten major weather events in 2023, from early fires to low snowpack to compound events. </p>
<p>Can we say how much climate change contributed to these events? Not yet. It normally takes several years of research before we can clearly say what role climate change played. But the longer term trends are well established – more frequent, more intense heatwaves over most of Australia, marine heatwave days more than doubling over the last century, and short, intense rainfall events intensifying in some areas. </p>
<h2>What happened in 2023?</h2>
<p><strong>January. Event #1: Record-breaking rain in the north (NT, WA, QLD)</strong></p>
<p>The year began with above-average rainfall in northern Australia influenced by the “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64950045">triple-dip</a>” La Niña phase. </p>
<p>Some parts of the country were already experiencing heavy rainfall even before Cyclone Ellie arrived. From late December 2022 to early January 2023, Ellie brought heavy rainfall to Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland, resulting in a one-in-100-year flooding of the Fitzroy River. Interestingly, Cyclone Ellie was only a “weak” Category 1 tropical cyclone. So why did it cause so much damage? In their analysis, climate scientists suggest it was actually low wind speeds in the mid-troposphere which allowed the system to stall and keep raining.</p>
<p><strong>February–March. Event 2: Extreme rain and food shortages (NT, QLD)</strong></p>
<p>Climate scientists observed the same behaviour from late February to early March 2023, when a persistent slow-moving low-pressure system known as a monsoonal low dumped heavy, widespread rain over the Northern Territory and north-west Queensland. The resulting floods cut transport routes in the NT, and led to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/flooding-logistics-freight-issues-nt-wa-food-supplies-rail-road/102057556">food shortages</a>.</p>
<p><strong>June–August. Event 3 and 4: Warmest winter, little snow (NSW)</strong></p>
<p>After a wet start to the year, conditions became drier and warmer in southern and eastern Australia. New South Wales experienced its warmest winter on record, with daily maximums more than 2°C above the long-term average. </p>
<p>The unusual heat and lack of precipitation translated into the <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/snow-season-hanging-in-there-by-a-thread/1466746">second-worst</a> snow season on record (the worst was 2006). </p>
<p><strong>September. Event 5: Record heatwave (SA)</strong></p>
<p>In September, South Australia faced a record-breaking heatwave. Temperatures reached as high as 38°C in Ceduna. As warming continues, scientists suggest unusual heat and heatwaves during the cool season will become more frequent and intense. </p>
<p>September also saw <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive/20230919.archive.shtml">El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole</a> declared by the Bureau of Meteorology. When these two climate drivers combine, we have a higher chance of a warm and dry Australia, particularly during late winter and spring. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">2023's extreme storms, heat and wildfires broke records – a scientist explains how global warming fuels climate disasters</a>
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<p><strong>October. Event 6, 7 and 8: Fire-and-flood compound event (VIC), compound wind and rain storms (TAS), unusually early fires (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>Dry conditions gave rise to an unseasonably early fire season in Victoria and Queensland. In October, Queensland’s Western Downs region was hit hard. Dozens of houses and two lives <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-04/community-cost-of-devastating-tara-qld-bushfire/103055968">were lost</a> in the town of Tara. </p>
<p>The same month, Victoria’s Gippsland region was hit by back-to-back fires and floods, a phenomenon known as a <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/what-is-a-compound-event-in-weather-and-climate/">compound event</a>. </p>
<p>While it’s difficult to attribute these events to climate change, scientists say hot and dry winters make Australia more prone to early season fires. </p>
<p>Also in October, a different compound event struck Tasmania in the form of successive low-pressure systems. The first dumped a month’s worth of rain in a few days over much of the state, while the second brought strong winds. The rain from the first storm loosened the soil, making it easier for trees to be blown down. </p>
<p>Scientists say the combined effects were more severe than if just one of these events occurred without the other. Such extreme wind-and-rain compound events are expected to occur more frequently in regions such as the tropics as the climate continues to change.</p>
<p><strong>November. Event 9: Supercell thunderstorm trashed crops (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>In November, a supercell thunderstorm hit Queensland’s south-east, destroying A$50 million worth of crops and farming equipment. Initial research suggests extreme winds and thunderstorms <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-say-yet-if-grid-breaking-thunderstorms-are-getting-worse-but-we-shouldnt-wait-to-find-out-224148">may become</a> more likely under climate change, but more work is needed.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="crops hailstorm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The hailstorm ripped through crops in Queensland’s Lockyer Valley, a big agricultural area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p><strong>December. Event 10: Unprecedented flooding from Cyclone Jasper (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>In mid-December, Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall as a Category 2 tropical cyclone in north Queensland. The system weakened into a tropical low and then stalled over Cape York. The weather system’s northerly winds drew in moist air from the Coral Sea, which collided with drier winds from the south-east. This caused persistent heavy rainfall over the region – up to 2 metres in places. Catchments flooded across the region, causing widespread damage to roads, buildings and crops. Similar to ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie, most damage occurred after landfall as the system stalled and dumped rain. </p>
<h2>Climate change can make extreme weather even more extreme</h2>
<p>It’s generally easier to identify and understand the role of human-caused climate change in large-scale extreme events, particularly temperature extremes. So we can say 2023’s exceptional winter heat was probably intensified by what we have done to the climate system. </p>
<p>For smaller-scale extremes, it is often harder to determine the role of climate change, but there’s some evidence short, intense rainfall events are getting even more intense as the world warms. Early-season bushfires and low snow cover are consistent with what we expect under global warming.</p>
<p>There’s also an increasing threat from the risk of compound events where concurrent or consecutive extreme events can amplify damage. </p>
<p>Australia’s intense weather events during 2023 are broadly what we can expect to see as the world keeps getting hotter and hotter due to the heat-trapping greenhouse gases humanity continues to emit. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-heating-may-breach-1-5-c-in-2024-heres-what-that-could-look-like-220877">Global heating may breach 1.5°C in 2024 – here's what that could look like</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laure Poncet receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p>Last year was the hottest in recorded history. That heat led to a range of unusually intense weather events across Australia.Laure Poncet, Research officer, UNSW SydneyAndrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241482024-02-27T22:57:44Z2024-02-27T22:57:44ZWe can’t say yet if grid-breaking thunderstorms are getting worse – but we shouldn’t wait to find out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578151/original/file-20240227-24-2wzo6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5000%2C3323&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/storm-cloud-details-530178991">Janelle Lugge/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On February 13, six transmission line towers in Victoria were destroyed by extreme wind gusts from thunderstorms, leading to forced electricity outages affecting tens of thousands of people. The intense winds knocked trees onto local power lines or toppled the poles, which caused about 500,000 people to lose power. Some people went without electricity for more than a week. A month earlier, severe thunderstorms and wind <a href="https://www.westernpower.com.au/news/storm-destroyed-transmission-line-rebuilt-and-re-energised/">took out</a> five transmission towers in Western Australia and caused widespread outages. </p>
<p>Intense thunderstorm events have made news in recent years, including the January 2020 storms that caused the collapse of <a href="https://www.esv.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-12/Cressy_500kV_Tower_Incident_31Jan2020_report.pdf">six transmission towers in Victoria</a>. Perhaps the most far-reaching storms were those in 2016, when all of South Australia lost power for several hours after <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/severe-weather-knowledge-centre/thunderstorm-reports/Severe_Thunderstorm_and_Tornado_Outbreak_28_September_2016.pdf">extreme winds</a> damaged many transmission towers. </p>
<p>So are these thunderstorms with extreme winds getting worse as the climate changes? It’s possible, but we can’t yet say for sure. That’s partly because thunderstorms involve small-scale processes harder to study than bigger weather systems. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">A major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient</a>
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<h2>How can wind topple a giant transmission tower?</h2>
<p>Many people saw the photos of transmission towers bent like thin wire and wondered how it was possible.</p>
<p>The reason is physics. When wind hits a structure, the force it applies is roughly proportional to the wind speed squared. When wind gusts are stronger than about 100 kilometres per hour, even just for a few seconds, there can be a risk of damage to infrastructure. </p>
<p>Direction matters too. Wind has greater force when it blows more directly towards a surface. If strong winds blow from an unusual direction, risk of damage can also increase. Old trees, for instance, may be more firmly braced against prevailing winds – but if storm winds blow from another direction, they might topple onto power lines. </p>
<p>On February 13, a strong cold front was approaching Victoria from the southeast, bringing thunderstorms with extreme wind gusts over 120 km/h after a period of extreme heat. Thunderstorms can create extremely strong and localised gusty winds, sometimes called “<a href="https://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_microbursts">microbursts</a>” due to cold heavy air falling rapidly out of the clouds. These winds were enough to bend towers and topple trees and poles. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/C3RqmMQPAd9/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Are these thunderstorm winds getting worse?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/">Scientific evidence</a> clearly shows climate change is steadily worsening hazards such as extreme heatwaves and bushfires, which can damage our grid and energy systems. </p>
<p>On balance, evidence suggests tropical cyclones may become less frequent but more severe on average. All but one of Australia’s tropical cyclones <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%9324_Australian_region_cyclone_season">this summer</a> have been severe (Category 3 or higher).</p>
<p>But we aren’t yet certain what climate change does to extreme winds from thunderstorms.</p>
<p>This is because high-quality observations of past thunderstorms are relatively rare, with large variability in how often storms occur and their severity, and because climate models have difficulties simulating the small-scale processes which give rise to thunderstorms.</p>
<p>The evidence we do have suggests continued climate change may potentially increase the risk of extreme winds from thunderstorms. This is partly due to more moist and unstable air, which are essential for <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/severe-weather-knowledge-centre/severethunder.shtml#formation">thunderstorms to form</a>. We think these conditions could occur more often with climate change, in part because warmer air can hold more moisture. </p>
<p>We also know the severity of thunderstorms can be affected by <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/81211-vertical-wind-shear-and-convective-storms">vertical wind shear</a>, which is the way the wind changes with height. To date, we’re less certain about how wind shear will change in the future.</p>
<p><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021JD034633">Recent research</a> by coauthor Andrew Brown and the lead author suggests climate change is likely causing more favourable conditions for thunderstorms with damaging winds, particularly in inland regions of Australia. But the methods used for these predictions are new, meaning more research needs to be done for further insight on what climate change will do to extreme winds.</p>
<h2>We shouldn’t wait to find out</h2>
<p>Modelling extreme wind gusts is still in its infancy. But given so much of our electricity grid is exposed to extreme winds, it’s important we try to address this gap in our knowledge.</p>
<p>It’s safe to say we should treat these storms as a warning. We should factor the risks from extreme winds into how we design our energy systems. It’s especially important as we build a grid able to handle clean energy that we anticipate these kinds of risks from extreme weather. </p>
<p>Hardening the grid by burying powerlines and removing vegetation isn’t the only option. We could build a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275411779_The_Grid_Stronger_Bigger_Smarter_Presenting_a_Conceptual_Framework_of_Power_System_Resilience">smarter grid</a>, with distributed renewables and energy storage including large as well as relatively smaller (e.g., community-level or household-level) batteries, giving the grid greater resilience including against extreme weather events.</p>
<p>In the wake of South Australia’s devastating 2016 <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/aemc_-_sa_black_system_review_-_final_report.pdf">grid outage</a>, authorities moved to boost grid resilience in this way, building big batteries, more renewables and new interconnectors, while Australia’s energy market operator AEMO changed how it <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">dealt with windfarms</a> if grid issues occur. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">What caused South Australia's state-wide blackout?</a>
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<p>Power grids are the <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a44067133/how-does-the-power-grid-work/">largest machines</a> in the world. As we move to a clean energy grid, we face complex challenges – not just in building it, but in protecting it against extreme weather. </p>
<p>We would be well served if we work to better understand the risks of compound events, such as combinations of extreme winds, fires or floods hitting a region around the same time. </p>
<p>We also need accurate predictions of risks shortly before extreme winds or other disasters strike, as well as effective long-term planning for the risks likely to increase due to climate change or during different climate cycles such as El Niño and La Niña.</p>
<p>If we get this response wrong, our energy bills will rise too much and, worse, we still might not have a more resilient system. Since our energy networks are regulated by a complex set of government rules, reform is not just something for industry to address. It must ultimately be led by government – and guided by evidence.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-power-outage-could-have-been-far-worse-can-we-harden-the-grid-against-extreme-weather-224142">Victoria's power outage could have been far worse. Can we harden the grid against extreme weather?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Dowdy receives funding from the University of Melbourne's Melbourne Energy Institute and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Brown receives funding from Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Vincent receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Brear receives funding from several government organisations as well as several Australian and international companies. These companies include those that are responsible for energy networks, energy generation, energy retail and energy use.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierluigi Mancarella receives funding from several government organisations as well as several Australian and international companies, include those that are responsible for energy networks, generation, retail and use.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Lane receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Extreme winds from thunderstorms have downed transmission towers from Victoria to Western Australia in recent years. What’s going on?Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist, The University of MelbourneAndrew Brown, Ph.D. student, The University of MelbourneAndrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneClaire Vincent, Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Science, The University of MelbourneMichael Brear, Director, Melbourne Energy Institute, The University of MelbournePierluigi Mancarella, Chair Professor of Electrical Power Systems, The University of MelbourneTodd Lane, Professor, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241422024-02-22T19:19:00Z2024-02-22T19:19:00ZVictoria’s power outage could have been far worse. Can we harden the grid against extreme weather?<p>Last week’s destructive storm took Victoria by surprise. As winds of up to 150 kilometres an hour raced through the state, transmission towers near Geelong toppled and the grid went into chaos. </p>
<p>At its worst, almost one in five Victorian homes were left <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/victorias-electricity-spot-prices-soar-as-states-largest-coal-generator-suffers-outage">without electricity</a>
while the main transmission system came <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/market_notices_and_events/power_system_incident_reports/2024/preliminary-report---loss-of-moorabool---sydenham-500-kv-lines-on-13-feb-2024.pdf?la=en">close to collapse</a>. </p>
<p>That makes it comparable to Victoria’s last <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-29/wild-weather-warning-as-storms-lash-melbourne-regional-victoria/100578948">grid-crippling storms</a> in October 2021. </p>
<p>But this power outage could have been much worse. It speaks to the urgent need to harden our grid against the more frequent extreme weather expected under climate change. </p>
<h2>What actually happened?</h2>
<p>It was very hot in Victoria on February 13. Fires raged in central Victoria, claiming dozens of houses. When a cool change arrived, it brought extreme winds. </p>
<p>At about 12.35pm, Australia’s largest windfarm, Stockyard Hill, disconnected from the grid, as a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/vicemergency/photos/watch-act-grass-fire-leave-nowincident-location-stockyard-hillissue-date-tuesday/719539106985386/?paipv=0&eav=AfZh-4_GUI540qgzMqlBWjgP6p6IhujLW7rBtJ4YFeC4rUOuizrz_zn82hPUhOAsn3g&_rdr">grass fire</a> threatened its grid connection. </p>
<p>As it happens, the loss of the windfarm was actually a lucky break.</p>
<p>At 2.08pm, six of Victoria’s highest voltage transmission towers (500 kiloVolt) were toppled by extreme downdrafts. This catastrophe took out two sets of 500 kV powerlines transporting much of the electricity from wind farms in western and south western Victoria to Melbourne. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p>At the time of collapse, the circuits were likely fairly heavily loaded. They would have been much more heavily loaded had Stockyard Hill windfarm not dropped off the system 90 minutes earlier from the unrelated grass fire. </p>
<p>In response to the 500 kV faults, voltages dipped, forcing all four of the large coal-fired generating units at Loy Yang A to disconnect. Two wind farms in western Victoria were disconnected automatically, as intended in their cases.</p>
<p>During most of the transmission crisis, rooftop solar became the largest source of supply in Victoria.</p>
<p>In addition to the transmission events, damage to local distribution poles and wires was widespread, especially in regional Victoria. This <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/experts-to-review-victoria-s-energy-crash-after-extreme-storms-20240220-p5f6as.html">cut power</a> to about one in five Victorian homes. </p>
<p>In about two hours, the power system had stabilised. Gas and hydro generators rushed in to fill the gap left by Loy Yang A and the wind farms, and Victoria got through its evening peak. Many homes on however still remain without power through distribution network failures.</p>
<p>In response, the Victorian government has <a href="https://www.insidestategovernment.com.au/victorian-govt-announces-independent-review-of-storm-response/">announced</a> it will appoint an independent panel to review the disaster, <a href="https://www.aap.com.au/news/independent-review-green-lit-into-vic-storms-blackout">closely following</a> the review of <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/dandenongs-storms-residents-still-reeling-a-year-later/103068ad-295d-41db-9618-27386380c498">devastating storms</a> in June 2021. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/about-energy/legislation/regulatory-reviews/electricity-distribution-network-resilience-review">final recommendations</a> from the review of the 2021 storms, the panel played it safe, calling for better communication with affected communities, beefed up emergency responses and relief delivery and so on. </p>
<p>The government also <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/about-energy/legislation/regulatory-reviews/electricity-distribution-network-resilience-review#:%7E:text=The%20Government%20Response%20to%20the,Victoria%20to%20submit%20a%20request">accepted</a> a key recommendation: any major changes to strengthen network resilience should be referred to the Australian Energy Markets Commission, thereby kicking the big challenges into the long grass.</p>
<p>This time round, the omens are inauspicious. The government has explicitly excluded transmission from its review, instead relegating it to the electricity safety regulator. This is short-sighted. The Victorian transmission network is heavily exposed to weather risk and it is getting worse. </p>
<h2>What should be done about it?</h2>
<p>This won’t be the last grid-buckling extreme weather we’ll see. Far from it. </p>
<p>There are many things that can be done to reduce weather risk, and putting high (and low) voltage lines underground is often spoken about. </p>
<p>It will be expensive. In the wake of devastating fires, California’s <a href="https://www.pge.com/en/outages-and-safety/safety/community-wildfire-safety-program/system-hardening-and-undergrounding.html#:%7E:text=We%20are%20upgrading%20our%20electric,improve%20reliability%20during%20severe%20weather.">largest utility</a> committed to put 16,000 km of lines underground. So far, almost 1,000 km has been completed. But the cost has <a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2024/02/20/fighting-fires-in-the-power-sector/">been substantial</a> – around A$3.2 million a kilometre. </p>
<p>Victoria has 148,000 km of distribution lines of which 84% is overhead and 16% underground, a similar proportion to the rest of Australia. It’s much easier and cheaper to put distribution lines underground than transmission lines. </p>
<p>If we optimistically assume the same cost as in California, boosting the proportion of Victoria’s distribution network that is underground by 10 percentage points (to 26%) would cost around $37 billion. That’s more than double the regulatory value of the distribution network in Victoria. </p>
<p>Is enhanced vegetation management – widespread tree clearing near lines cheaper? Perhaps not. <a href="https://haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/WP347.pdf">Research in California </a> suggests undergrounding may actually be more cost-effective in terms of fires avoided. </p>
<p>More cost-effective than undergrounding are rapid switches, devices able to quickly clear faults and reduce the chance downed lines will start fires. Victoria began requiring distributors to install these from 2016, following the state’s 2009 Black Saturday fires, where downed powerlines sparked several lethal blazes. Their effectiveness is yet to be proven. </p>
<p>These are difficult questions and much is to be gained by considering them carefully. This will require the government to reach for more than another set of “must-try-harder” recommendations.</p>
<h2>What about building new transmission lines?</h2>
<p>Even as extreme weather topples huge transmission towers, state and federal governments are pressing ahead to build more. Expanding transmission capacity is important to decarbonise our electricity supply. But if not done well, it will increase exposure to weather risk. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/cb01c4_adef2391c5414148bf8f388a0f1dcebe.pdf">Our study</a> of VNI-West, the proposed massive new Victoria-New South Wales interconnector, found it would greatly increase Victoria’s energy security risk.</p>
<p>Why? Because it will be very heavily loaded, much more so than the 500 kV lines that failed last week, and it carries two sets of conductors on one set of towers. </p>
<p>This proposed new interconnector will make Victoria deeply dependent on NSW for its electricity supply. In a little over a decade Victoria is expected to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-links-could-turn-victoria-into-energy-importer-solar-and-storage-would-be-cheaper/">import 26%</a> of its grid-supplied electricity, much of it conveyed on VNI-West. This is an astonishing and little-known aspect of Victoria’s existing electricity policy.</p>
<p>Vandalism or extreme weather could, at a stroke, disable this new transmission line. In our report we drew attention to sabotage and weather risk and since out report we have seen yet more evidence of <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/two-charged-after-allegedly-tampering-with-power-pole-that-cut-electricity-to-thousands-of-homes-20230913-p5e4cc.html">sabotage</a>, and now we have another clear example of the risks from extreme weather. </p>
<p>To date, Australia’s market operator has <a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/92a2aa_e9a4bfe6fd1f44ffb16b1d3eb9da3e5c.pdf">brushed off</a> our critique without reason.</p>
<p>Victoria dodged a bullet last week. It could have been far worse. To be ready for the next major storm, we should at the very least have a bipartisan parliamentary inquiry into the events of February 13. And this must scrutinise whether the proposed Victoria-NSW interconnector could survive a similar event – and what would happen if it did not. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">A major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Transmission towers bent like soft plastic when extreme winds whipped through Victoria last week. Fixing it means asking hard questions.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219902024-02-15T23:34:53Z2024-02-15T23:34:53ZAs the world heats up, solar panels will degrade faster – especially in hot, humid areas. What can we do?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575742/original/file-20240214-30-q84wun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C107%2C5928%2C3880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/broken-burned-through-solar-panel-caught-1390358633">Tijnlp/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>To reach the goal of 82% renewable energy in Australia’s grid by 2030, we’ll need to build a <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2023/draft-2024-isp-consultation/draft-2024-isp---overview.pdf?la=en">lot more solar</a>. </p>
<p>But even as we accelerate the rate at which we install solar on our rooftops and in grid-scale farms, the world keeps getting hotter and extreme weather arrives more often. </p>
<p>Solar panels have to be outside, exposed to all weather. They’re built to endure heat, snow, rain and wind. But they have limits. Climate change will mean many panels can degrade faster. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.3788">new research</a> examines which areas of Australia will have the worst conditions for solar degradation out to 2059 – and what it will do to the cost of energy. We found solar in Australia’s hot, humid north will degrade fastest, while solar in the arid interior and more moderate climates down south will fare better. </p>
<h2>What makes solar panels degrade?</h2>
<p>When you’re looking to install solar on your rooftop, the warranty will likely be a factor in your eventual choice. Most solar manufacturers offer a 25-30 year warranty, where they guarantee power output will drop by less than 20% over that time. </p>
<p>The reason the power output drops at all is that solar panels slowly degrade over time. But different climates, different materials and different manufacturing techniques can lead to faster or slower degradation. </p>
<p>At present, the dominant solar technology is silicon. Silicon modules degrade due to stress from the environment, voltage changes and mechanical stresses, as silicon wafers are quite stiff and brittle. Environmentally, humidity, ultraviolet radiation and temperature are the main causes of damage. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-affect-solar-power-and-grid-stability-across-australia-heres-how-213876">Climate change will affect solar power and grid stability across Australia – here's how</a>
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<hr>
<p>Hotter, more humid conditions can accelerate degradation in several ways. The map below combines four types of degradation we predict will worsen under climate change. These are: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>delamination: heat and humidity can cause the bonds holding the different layers of the cell together to lose adhesion</p></li>
<li><p>discoloured encapsulant: intense sunlight and extra moisture can damage or discolour the encapsulant, the polymer used to adhere layers within the solar cell together</p></li>
<li><p>ribbon corrosion: if it’s more humid more often, it increases the chances moisture can accumulate and begin corroding the internal ribbon connections of the cell</p></li>
<li><p>internal circuit failure: solar cells experience regular temperature fluctuations, daily and seasonally. These temperature changes can over time cause circuits to fail. A hotter world will add extra stress to internal circuits, leading to a higher chance of failure. </p></li>
</ol>
<p><iframe id="bxVqS" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/bxVqS/11/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What will climate change do?</h2>
<p>Our results predict degradation rates will increase across Australia out to 2059 under both <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/changing-climate/future-climate-scenarios/greenhouse-gas-scenarios/">high and low emissions scenarios</a> laid out by the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. </p>
<p>Under a high emissions scenario, solar would degrade twice as fast as it would under a lower emission scenario due to the extra heat. Solar farms would be able to produce less power and might have to replace panels due to failure more often. On average, this would mean losing about 8.5% of output due solely to extra degradation by 2059. Under a high emissions scenario, this would mean energy could cost 10-12% more. </p>
<p>But the effects wouldn’t be felt equally. Our results show solar built across the hot and humid north of Australia will degrade at especially high rates in the future compared to the arid centre, where conditions are hot but dry. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar farm in desert" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar in hot, dry conditions will fare better than hot and humid areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/solar-power-station-australia-1041363820">Adwo/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What should we do?</h2>
<p>Heat is the main way solar panels degrade and break in Australia. As the world heats up, it will go from annoyance to very real problem. </p>
<p>At present, very few solar developers are taking climate change into account when they buy their panels. They should, especially those operating in humid areas. They can be more careful while selecting a new solar farm location to ensure their modules have lower chances of failure due to degradation. </p>
<p>To fix the problem, we’ll need to incorporate new ways of cooling panels and improve the materials used. We also need to improve manufacturing processes and materials so we can stop moisture from accumulating inside the panels.</p>
<p>These issues can be fixed. The first step is to understand there is a problem. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sunlight-that-powers-solar-panels-also-damages-them-gallium-doping-is-providing-a-solution-164935">The sunlight that powers solar panels also damages them. 'Gallium doping' is providing a solution</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shukla Poddar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’re going to build a lot more solar as we race to clean up the grid. But as the world heats up, solar will degrade faster in hot, humid areas. We need to plan ahead.Shukla Poddar, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Photovoltaics and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228342024-02-09T19:01:37Z2024-02-09T19:01:37ZAtlantic Ocean is headed for a tipping point − once melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we would see extreme climate change within decades, study shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573965/original/file-20240207-22-751n5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5607%2C3741&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Too much fresh water from Greenland's ice sheet can slow the Atlantic Ocean's circulation.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/iceberg-calving-from-eqip-glacier-on-disko-bay-royalty-free-image/534972902?phrase=melting+glaciers+greenland&adppopup=true">Paul Souders/Stone via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Superstorms, abrupt climate shifts and New York City frozen in ice. That’s how the blockbuster Hollywood movie “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0319262/">The Day After Tomorrow</a>” depicted an abrupt shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation and the catastrophic consequences.</p>
<p>While Hollywood’s vision was over the top, the 2004 movie raised a serious question: If global warming shuts down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is crucial for carrying heat from the tropics to the northern latitudes, how abrupt and severe would the climate changes be?</p>
<p>Twenty years after the movie’s release, we know a lot more about the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation. Instruments deployed in the ocean starting in 2004 <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5">show that the Atlantic Ocean circulation</a> has <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">observably slowed</a> over the past two decades, possibly to its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00699-z">weakest state in almost a millennium</a>. Studies also suggest that the circulation has reached a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950">dangerous tipping point</a> in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf5529">the past</a> that sent it into a precipitous, unstoppable decline, and that it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w">could hit that tipping point again</a> as the planet warms and glaciers and ice sheets melt.</p>
<p>In a new study using the latest generation of Earth’s climate models, we simulated the flow of fresh water until the ocean circulation reached that tipping point. </p>
<p>The results showed that the circulation could <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189">fully shut down within a century</a> of hitting the tipping point, and that it’s headed in that direction. If that happened, average temperatures would drop by several degrees in North America, parts of Asia and Europe, and people would see severe and cascading consequences around the world.</p>
<p>We also discovered a physics-based early warning signal that can alert the world when the Atlantic Ocean circulation is nearing its tipping point.</p>
<h2>The ocean’s conveyor belt</h2>
<p>Ocean currents are driven by winds, tides and water <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050144">density differences</a>.</p>
<p>In the Atlantic Ocean circulation, the relatively warm and salty surface water near the equator flows toward Greenland. During its journey it crosses the Caribbean Sea, loops up into the Gulf of Mexico, and then flows along the U.S. East Coast before crossing the Atlantic. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573566/original/file-20240205-17-ttiy6v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two illustrations show how the AMOC looks today and its weaker state in the future" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573566/original/file-20240205-17-ttiy6v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573566/original/file-20240205-17-ttiy6v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573566/original/file-20240205-17-ttiy6v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573566/original/file-20240205-17-ttiy6v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573566/original/file-20240205-17-ttiy6v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573566/original/file-20240205-17-ttiy6v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573566/original/file-20240205-17-ttiy6v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How the Atlantic Ocean circulation changes as it slows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-9/faq-9-3-figure-1">IPCC 6th Assessment Report</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This current, also known as the Gulf Stream, brings heat to Europe. As it flows northward and cools, the water mass becomes heavier. By the time it reaches Greenland, it starts to sink and flow southward. The sinking of water near Greenland pulls water from elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean and the cycle repeats, like a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000493">conveyor belt</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950">Too much fresh water</a> from melting glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet can dilute the saltiness of the water, preventing it from sinking, and weaken this <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000493">ocean conveyor belt</a>. A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.97.4.1347">weaker conveyor belt</a> transports <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01380-y">less heat northward</a> and also enables less heavy water to reach Greenland, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.97.4.1347">further weakens</a> the conveyor belt’s strength. Once it reaches the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105">tipping point</a>, it shuts down quickly.</p>
<h2>What happens to the climate at the tipping point?</h2>
<p>The existence of a tipping point was first noticed in an overly simplified model of the Atlantic Ocean circulation in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1961.tb00079.x">early 1960s</a>. Today’s more <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained/">detailed climate models</a> indicate a continued <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086075">slowing of the conveyor belt’s strength</a> under climate change. However, an abrupt shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean circulation <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2023.133984">appeared to be absent</a> in these climate models.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/p4pWafuvdrY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How the ocean conveyor belt works.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is where our study comes in. We performed an experiment with a detailed climate model to find the tipping point for an abrupt shutdown by slowly increasing the input of fresh water. </p>
<p>We found that once it reaches the tipping point, the conveyor belt shuts down within 100 years. The heat transport toward the north is strongly reduced, leading to abrupt climate shifts.</p>
<h2>The result: Dangerous cold in the North</h2>
<p>Regions that are influenced by the Gulf Stream receive <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01380-y">substantially less heat</a> when the circulation stops. This cools the North American and European continents by a few degrees.</p>
<p>The European climate is much more influenced by the Gulf Stream than other regions. In our experiment, that meant parts of the continent changed at more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) per decade – far faster than today’s global warming of about 0.36 F (0.2 C) per decade. We found that parts of Norway would experience temperature drops of more than 36 F (20 C). On the other hand, regions in the Southern Hemisphere would warm by a few degrees.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two maps show US and Europe both cooling by several degrees if the AMOC stops." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573569/original/file-20240205-15-mqepgl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573569/original/file-20240205-15-mqepgl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573569/original/file-20240205-15-mqepgl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573569/original/file-20240205-15-mqepgl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573569/original/file-20240205-15-mqepgl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573569/original/file-20240205-15-mqepgl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573569/original/file-20240205-15-mqepgl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The annual mean temperature changes after the conveyor belt stops reflect an extreme temperature drop in northern Europe in particular.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189">René M. van Westen</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These temperature changes develop over about 100 years. That might seem like a long time, but on typical climate time scales, it is abrupt.</p>
<p>The conveyor belt shutting down would also affect sea level and precipitation patterns, which can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955">push other ecosystems closer to their tipping points</a>. For example, the Amazon rainforest is vulnerable to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120777119">declining precipitation</a>. If its forest ecosystem turned to grassland, the transition would <a href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1667/2022/">release carbon</a> to the atmosphere and result in the loss of a valuable carbon sink, further accelerating climate change.</p>
<p>The Atlantic circulation has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf5529">slowed significantly in the distant past</a>. During <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060415">glacial periods</a> when ice sheets that covered large parts of the planet were melting, the influx of fresh water slowed the Atlantic circulation, triggering huge climate fluctuations.</p>
<h2>So, when will we see this tipping point?</h2>
<p>The big question – when will the Atlantic circulation reach a tipping point – remains unanswered. Observations don’t go back far enough to provide a clear result. While a recent study suggested that the conveyor belt is rapidly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w">approaching its tipping point</a>, possibly within a few years, these statistical analyses made several assumptions that give rise to uncertainty.</p>
<p>Instead, we were able to develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal involving the salinity transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean. Once a threshold is reached, the tipping point is likely to follow in one to four decades.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A line chart of circulation strength shows a quick drop-off after the amount of freshwater in the ocean hits a tipping point." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574182/original/file-20240207-28-udb2b3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574182/original/file-20240207-28-udb2b3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574182/original/file-20240207-28-udb2b3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574182/original/file-20240207-28-udb2b3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574182/original/file-20240207-28-udb2b3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574182/original/file-20240207-28-udb2b3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574182/original/file-20240207-28-udb2b3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A climate model experiment shows how quickly the AMOC slows once it reaches a tipping point with a threshold of fresh water entering the ocean. How soon that will happen remains an open question.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189">René M. van Westen</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The climate impacts from our study underline the severity of such an abrupt conveyor belt collapse. The temperature, sea level and precipitation changes will severely affect society, and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106088">climate shifts are unstoppable</a> on human time scales.</p>
<p>It might seem counterintuitive to worry about extreme cold as the planet warms, but if the main Atlantic Ocean circulation shuts down from too much meltwater pouring in, that’s the risk ahead.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated on Feb. 11, 2024, to fix a typo: The experiment found temperatures in parts of Europe changed by more than 5 F per decade.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222834/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>René van Westen receives funding from the European Research Council (ERC-AdG project 101055096, TAOC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henk A. Dijkstra receives funding from the European Research Council (ERC-AdG project 101055096, TAOC, PI: Dijkstra). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Kliphuis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scientists now have a better understanding of the risks ahead and a new early warning signal to watch for.René van Westen, Postdoctoral Researcher in Climate Physics, Utrecht UniversityHenk A. Dijkstra, Professor of Physics, Utrecht UniversityMichael Kliphuis, Climate Model Specialist, Utrecht UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215222024-02-09T10:35:24Z2024-02-09T10:35:24ZWeather v climate: how to make sense of an unusual cold snap while the world is hotter than ever<p>Earlier this year, the UK’s weather and climate service, the Met Office, announced average global temperatures in 2023 were <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/2023-the-warmest-year-on-record-globally">1.46°C</a> above pre-industrial levels. This made it the hottest year on record, 0.17°C higher than the previous record in 2016. </p>
<p>However, shortly after that announcement, the Met Office also forecast a multi-day blast of cold Arctic air bringing sub-zero temperatures, snow and ice to many parts of the UK. When the cold snap arrived, temperatures dropped to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/18/more-snow-and-ice-warnings-as-uk-wakes-up-from-subzero-night">-14°C in the Scottish Highlands and -11°C even in England</a>. </p>
<p>Ten days later, a village in the Scottish Highlands reached <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-68119951">a balmy 19.9°C</a>, the warmest January temperature ever recorded anywhere in the UK – by a full degree Celsius. That might seem more in keeping with the global warming trend. Yet just ten days on from that record warmth, much of the UK has again been hit by unusually <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-latest-25cm-of-snow-forecast-in-places-as-weather-warnings-issued-across-uk-13066412">cold and snowy weather</a>. </p>
<p>It’s not just the UK. This winter, record-low temperatures have been observed right across <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/extreme-cold-climate-change-1.7087754">Canada</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/15/us-weather-arctic-blast-extreme-cold">the US</a> and <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/parts-china-shanxi-hebei-liaoning-gripped-record-low-temperatures-icy-snap-3994976">China</a>.</p>
<p>This might seem confusing. Why are the weather and the climate producing such opposing signs? The reason is that they refer to atmospheric characteristics on substantially different timescales.</p>
<h2>You cannot sense the climate</h2>
<p>I do not think there is a person on Earth who can truly experience a “global annual average” of temperature. No one really knows what a degree of extra warmth over a century feels like, especially given temperatures might vary by 10°C between day and night in the UK, for example, or by 20°C and more between a hot summer day and a cold winter night. </p>
<p>This means we usually have a hard time feeling or recalling seasonal averages and how they change with passing years. We can spot climate changes in environmental shifts like receding glaciers or early flowering plants, and we can track changes with instruments. But it remains very hard to “feel” climate change.</p>
<p>In contrast, we feel and much better remember the weather on daily and weekly timescales – particularly extreme weather like a cold snap, heatwave or strong storm. </p>
<h2>Hot one day, cold the next</h2>
<p>Weather phenomena are very rapid and variable compared with climate properties that are defined and changing on longer time scales. The weather might be hot one day and cold the next, but an annual mean climate cannot suddenly slide from warm to cold. </p>
<p>The climate is essentially an accumulation of weather across a considerable amount of time. For example, weather information might refer to the local temperature at noon or 4pm, the daily minimum, average or maximum temperatures, or the weekly average. Whereas climate is much longer term. </p>
<p>Climate information might refer to, for example, average temperatures over a month, or averages over seasonal (three-month) periods, years or decades. In climate analysis, we usually look for anomalies with respect to the “baseline” – a longer-term average of perhaps 30 or 50 years of data. </p>
<h2>The line wiggles upwards</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two graphs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570877/original/file-20240123-21-5zlwlc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Left: global annual mean carbon dioxide (black curve) and air temperature (red curve) since 1850. Right: Average temperatures over central England in summer (red curve) and winter (curve). Temperatures relative to 1850–1900 average.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neven Fuckar / Data: Met Office HadCRUT5 and HadCET</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We can use more than a century of data to spot patterns, such as the <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/causes-of-climate-change">close relationship</a> in the left graph (above) between global atmospheric CO₂ and near-surface temperatures. There are, of course, some variations of around 0.1°C or so – the wiggles in the red line – as the climate does not change perfectly smoothly. That’s why 2016 was exceptionally hot, and the years after were slightly cooler.</p>
<p>These variations become more pronounced when we zoom in and examine a smaller regional area or shorter time units. For example, the right-hand graph above shows data from the Central England Temperature (<a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/">HadCET</a>) record, the world’s longest-running instrumental temperature record which began in 1659. This graph, which shows both winter and summer mean temperatures for central England, picks up more substantial variability over the same period from 1850 by both measures – on the order of 1°C. The internal variability of these seasonal means in essence drowns out long-term climate change at this regional scale before 1960s.</p>
<p>Looking at the right-hand graph alone – 174 years of data – you’d struggle to spot recent climate change. But zoom out to the global annual mean data in the left graph, and the long-term trend becomes clear.</p>
<p>We can zoom in even further to look at daily winter weather variability <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid">in the English county of Oxfordshire (HadUK-Grid)</a>. The histograms below show daily minimum temperatures (the left panels 2.a and 2.c) and daily mean temperatures (the right panels 2.b and 2.d) from two distinct 21-year periods. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four histograms of winter (December-January-February: DJF) daily minimum and mean temperatures in Oxfordshire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570879/original/file-20240123-15-7710ay.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How winters are changing in Oxfordshire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neven Fuckar / Data: Met Office HadUK-Grid</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They show that the chances of experiencing sub-zero weather is still significant even in the more recent 2002-2022 period. However, the “tail” of daily minimum temperatures to the left of the mean is thinner, so extreme cold temperatures are less common. The average daily minimum of 0.59°C (the number in blue) has increased by about 1°C to 1.6°C in the more recent period, while the daily mean increased by 1.29°C – both increases are greater than global warming over this time.</p>
<p>These are signs that Oxfordshire is warming over the long term, and its winters are warming slightly faster than the world as a whole. Global climate change makes high temperature extremes more likely, even in winter. It does not forbid winter cold snaps, but it does reduce their likelihood. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221522/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neven Fučkar receives funding from NIHR.</span></em></p>It’s getting warmer, but there are bumps on the way.Neven S. Fučkar, Senior Researcher, School of Geography and the Environmen, University of Oxford, and Lecturer, School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St AndrewsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230132024-02-08T13:40:00Z2024-02-08T13:40:00ZEl Niño is starting to lose strength after fueling a hot, stormy year, but it’s still powerful − an atmospheric scientist explains what’s ahead for 2024<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574206/original/file-20240207-16-vnmp3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C23%2C5107%2C3298&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In California, El Niño helped fuel a wet 2023 and early 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/person-walks-through-flood-waters-as-a-powerful-long-news-photo/1986231877">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wild weather has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">roiling North America</a> for the past few months, thanks in part to a strong El Niño that sent temperatures surging in 2023. The climate phenomenon fed <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-an-atmospheric-river-with-flooding-and-mudslides-in-california-a-hydrologist-explains-the-good-and-bad-of-these-storms-and-how-theyre-changing-222249">atmospheric rivers</a> drenching the West Coast and contributed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/summer-2023-was-the-hottest-on-record-yes-its-climate-change-but-dont-call-it-the-new-normal-213021">summer’s extreme heat</a> in the South and Midwest and fall’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">wet storms across the East</a>.</p>
<p>That strong El Niño is now <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">starting to weaken</a> and will likely be gone by late spring 2024.</p>
<p>So, what does that mean for the months ahead – and for the 2024 hurricane season?</p>
<h2>What is El Niño?</h2>
<p>Let’s start with a quick look at what an El Niño is.</p>
<p>El Niño and its opposite, La Niña, are <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html">climate patterns that influence weather</a> around the world. El Niño tends to raise global temperatures, as we saw in 2023, while La Niña events tend to be slightly cooler. The two result in global temperatures fluctuating above and below the <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature">warming trend set by climate change</a>. </p>
<p>El Niño starts as warm water builds up along the equator in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, off South America.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A colored map shows temperature differences with a warm area just west of South America along the equator." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574240/original/file-20240207-18-ojnwih.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reds and yellows show where Pacific waters were warmer in 2024 than in 2022. The abnormally warmer region along the equator is what we call El Niño. Weak El Niño events occur every few years, with strong events like this averaging once every 10 to 20 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Typically, tropical Pacific winds blow from the east, exposing cold water along the equator and building up warm water in the western Pacific. Every <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/understanding-el-nino">three to seven years or so</a>, however, these winds relax or turn to blow from the west. When that happens, warm water rushes to the east. The warmer-than-normal water drives more rainfall and alters winds around the world. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPok2G9Fyno">This is El Niño</a>.</p>
<p>The water stays warm for several months until, ultimately, it cools or is driven away from the equator by the return of the trade winds.</p>
<p><iframe id="aOiS8" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aOiS8/17/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>When the eastern Pacific region along the equator becomes abnormally cold, La Niña has emerged, and global weather patterns change again.</p>
<h2>What to expect from El Niño in 2024</h2>
<p>While the 2023-24 El Niño event <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">likely peaked in December</a>, it is still strong.</p>
<p>For the rest of winter, forecasts suggest that strong El Niño conditions will likely continue to favor unusual warmth in Canada and the northern United States and occasional stormy conditions across the southern states.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two maps of typical winter conditions under El Nino and La Nina show the Southwest wetter and the Northwest and upper Midwest generally warmer under El Nino." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574242/original/file-20240207-24-syjmnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Typical winters under El Niño and La Niña show the striking differences between the two patterns. Not all El Niños turn out this way.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-frequently-asked-questions">NOAA Climate.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>El Niño is likely to end in late spring or early summer, shifting briefly to neutral. There’s a good chance we will see La Niña conditions this fall. But forecasting when that happens and what comes next is harder.</p>
<h2>How an El Niño ends</h2>
<p>While it’s easy to tell when an El Niño event reaches its peak, predicting when one will end depends on how the wind blows, and everyday weather affects the winds.</p>
<p>The warm area of surface water that defines El Niño typically becomes more shallow toward spring. In mid-May 1998, at the end of an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rPqIuXlWuA">even stronger El Niño event</a>, there was a time when people fishing in the warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific could have touched the cold water layer a few feet below by just jumping in. At that point, it took only a moderate breeze to pull the cold water to the surface, ending the El Niño event.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WPA-KpldDVc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How El Niño develops in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But exactly when a strong El Niño event reverses varies. A <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/12/how-the-super-el-nino-of-1982-83-kept-itself-a-secret/">big 1983 El Niño</a> didn’t end until July. And the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.241.4862.192">El Niño in 1987</a> retreated into the central Pacific but did not fully reverse until December.</p>
<p>As of early February 2024, strong westerly winds were driving warm water from west to east across the equatorial Pacific.</p>
<p>These winds tend to make El Niño last a little longer. However, they’re also likely to drive what little warm water remains along the equator out of the tropics, up and down the coasts of the Americas. The more warm water that is expelled, the greater the chances of full reversal to La Niña conditions in the fall.</p>
<h2>Summer and the hurricane risk</h2>
<p>Among the more important El Niño effects is its tendency to reduce <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-hurricane-season">Atlantic hurricane activity</a>.</p>
<p>El Niño’s Pacific Ocean heat affects upper level winds that blow across the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. That <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-wind-shear-and-how-does-it-impact-hurricanes-other-tropical-cyclones/330987">increases wind shear</a> - the change in wind speed and direction with height – which can tear hurricanes apart.</p>
<p>The 2024 hurricane season likely won’t have El Niño around to help weaken storms. But that doesn’t necessarily mean an active season.</p>
<p>During the <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-ranks-4th-for-most-named-storms-in-year">2023 Atlantic hurricane season</a>, El Niño’s effect on the winds was more than offset by abnormally warm Atlantic waters, which fuel hurricanes. The season ended with more storms than average.</p>
<h2>The strange El Niño of 2023-24</h2>
<p>Although the 2023-24 El Niño event wasn’t the strongest in recent decades, many aspects of it have been unusual.</p>
<p>It followed three years of La Niña conditions, which is unusually long. It also emerged quickly, from March to May 2023. The combination led to weather extremes unseen <a href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/04/a-horrific-drought-in-the-1870s-offers-a-warning-for-today/">since perhaps the 1870s</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two cars are trapped up to their widows in a mudslide that poured through a Los Angeles neighborhood. One car is parked in its driveway," src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574187/original/file-20240207-30-4e5k3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extreme rainfall in early 2024 sent mudslides into dozens of Los Angeles-area neighborhoods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXCaliforniaStorms/b49e6373657e41f9964a64a6a631e5b6/photo">AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>La Niña cools the tropics but stores warm water in the western Pacific. It also warms the middle latitude oceans by weakening the winds and allowing more sunshine through. After three years of La Niña, the rapid emergence of El Niño helped make the Earth’s surface <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far">warmer than in any recent year</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223013/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Roundy receives funding from the National Science Foundation and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. </span></em></p>The strong El Niño that started in 2023 will still have big impacts at least through March. Here’s what to watch for next.Paul Roundy, Professor of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200312024-02-07T13:12:18Z2024-02-07T13:12:18ZPower outages leave poor communities in the dark longer: Evidence from 15M outages raises questions about recovery times<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573708/original/file-20240206-24-a4nh4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C5168%2C3437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Low-income communities often have a longer wait for electricity to come back after outages.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/457a5faae7c84a23947a3e781c5ce4a3">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electricity is essential to just about everyone – rich and poor, old and young. Yet, when severe storms strike, socioeconomically disadvantaged communities often wait longest to recover.</p>
<p>That isn’t just a perception.</p>
<p>We analyzed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad295">data from over 15 million consumers</a> in 588 U.S. counties who lost power when hurricanes made landfall between January 2017 and October 2020. The results show that poorer communities did indeed wait longer for the lights to go back on.</p>
<p>A 1-decile drop in socioeconomic status in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s <a href="https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/placeandhealth/svi/index.html">social vulnerability index</a> was associated with a 6.1% longer outage on average. This corresponds to waiting an extra 170 minutes on average for power to be restored, and sometimes much longer. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two maps of the southeastern U.S. show a correlation between outages and social vulnerability." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=784&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573707/original/file-20240206-24-n9l871.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=985&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The top map shows the total duration of power outages over eight storms by county. The lower map is a comparison with socioeconomic status taken into account, showing that counties with lower average socioeconomic status have longer outages than expected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/2/10/pgad295/7286530">Ganz et al, 2023, PNAS Nexus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Implications for policy and utilities</h2>
<p>One likely reason for this disparity is written into utilities’ <a href="https://www.publicpower.org/system/files/documents/Restoration_Best_Practices_Guidebook_2018.pdf">standard storm recovery policies</a>. Often, these polices prioritize critical infrastructure first when restoring power after an outage, then large commercial and industrial customers. They next seek to recover as many households as they can as quickly as possible.</p>
<p>While this approach may seem procedurally fair, these recovery routines appear to have an unintended effect of often making vulnerable communities wait longer for electricity to be restored. One <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0218883">reason may be</a> that these communities are farther from critical infrastructure, or they may be predominantly in older neighborhoods where power infrastructure requires more significant repairs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A store in Austin, Texas, is closed during a widespread power outage amid a winter cold snap in 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573641/original/file-20240206-23-lotgsh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Commercial areas are often higher on the priority list for faster power recovery in an outage. This store was still closed for several days during Texas’ widespread outages in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-states-that-a-fiesta-mart-is-closed-because-of-a-power-news-photo/1231222415?adppopup=true">Montinique Monroe/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The upshot is that households that are <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/hurricanes-hit-the-poor-the-hardest/">already at greater risk</a> from severe weather – whether due to being in flood-prone areas or in vulnerable buildings – and those who are least likely to have insurance or other resources to help them recover are also likely to face the longest storm-caused power outages. Long outages can mean refrigerated food goes bad, no running water and delays in repairing damage, including delays in running fans to dry out water damage and avoid mold.</p>
<p>Our study spanned 108 service regions, including investor-owned utilities, cooperatives and public utilities. The differential impact on poorer communities did not line up with any particular storm, region or individual utility. We also found no correlation with race, ethnicity or housing type. Only average socioeconomic level stood out.</p>
<h2>How to make power recovery less biased</h2>
<p>There are ways to improve power recovery times for everyone, beyond the necessary work of improving the stability of power distribution.</p>
<p>Policymakers and utilities can start by reexamining power restoration practices and power infrastructure maintenance, such as replacing aging utility poles and trimming trees, with disadvantaged communities in mind.</p>
<p>Power providers already have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.07.006">granular data on power usage</a> and <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=9913670">grid performance in their service regions</a>. They can begin experimenting with alternative recovery routines that consider the vulnerability of their customers in ways that do not substantially affect average recovery duration.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men look at cell phones in the dark on a porch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573650/original/file-20240206-19-b8ktkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People in some Fort Myers, Fla., neighborhoods still lacked water and electricity more than a week after Hurricane Ian in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-states-that-a-fiesta-mart-is-closed-because-of-a-power-news-photo/1231222415?adppopup=true">Montinique Monroe/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For socioeconomically <a href="https://atlas.eia.gov/pages/04021248819144108b36cbf27327d11c">vulnerable regions</a> that are likely to experience long outages because of their locations and possibly the aging energy infrastructure, utilities and policymakers can proactively ensure that households are well prepared to evacuate or have access to backup sources of power.</p>
<p>For example, the U.S. Department of Energy announced in October 2023 that it would invest in <a href="https://www.energy.gov/gdo/articles/keeping-lights-our-neighborhoods-during-power-outages">developing dozens of resilience hubs and microgrids</a> to help supply local power to key buildings within communities when the wider grid goes down. Louisiana plans several of these hubs, using solar and large-scale batteries, in or near disadvantaged communities.</p>
<p>Policymakers and utilities can also invest in broader energy infrastructure and renewable energy in these vulnerable communities. The U.S. Department of Energy’s <a href="https://www.energy.gov/justice/justice40-initiative">Justice40 program</a> directs that 40% of the benefit from certain federal energy, transportation and housing investments benefit disadvantaged communities. That may help residents who need public help the most.</p>
<p>Severe weather events are <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">becoming more common</a> as <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-billion-dollar-disasters-list-shattered-the-us-record-with-28-big-weather-and-climate-disasters-amid-earths-hottest-year-on-record-220634">global temperatures rise</a>. That increases the need for better planning and approaches that don’t leave low-income residents in the dark.</p>
<p><em>Chenghao Duan, a Ph.D. student at Georgia Tech, also contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220031/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers tracked power outages after 8 major storms to see how wealth corresponded to recovery time.Chuanyi Ji, Associate Professor of Engineering, Georgia Institute of TechnologyScott C. Ganz, Associate Teaching Professor of Business and Economics, Georgetown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222492024-01-30T13:36:20Z2024-01-30T13:36:20ZWhat is an atmospheric river? With flooding and mudslides in California, a hydrologist explains the good and bad of these storms and how they’re changing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572509/original/file-20240131-15-zr0n4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=164%2C18%2C2084%2C1425&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A satellite image shows a powerful atmospheric river hitting the U.S. West Coast on Jan. 31, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/CONUS/GEOCOLOR/20240311721_GOES18-ABI-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-2500x1500.jpg">NOAA GOES</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Millions of Californians were <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/live-blog/potentially-life-threatening-storm-system-begins-pounding-california-l-rcna137204">under flood alerts</a> as a <a href="https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-ar-update-2-february-2024-outlook/">powerful atmospheric river</a> brought heavy rain to the West Coast in early February 2024. Los Angeles saw <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573527/original/file-20240205-19-ss87hh.png">one of its wettest days on record</a> with over 4 inches of rain on Feb. 4. Other communities were hit by more than 12 inches of rain and reported <a href="https://ktla.com/news/local-news/live-updates-worst-of-storm-moves-into-southern-california/">widespread flooding</a>. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCEX7nwXwaI">Debris and mudslides</a> shut down <a href="https://twitter.com/CaltransDist7/status/1754525910676697306">sections of highways</a> and <a href="https://laist.com/news/climate-environment/major-storm-heading-into-socal-sunday">roads into Malibu</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>It was the <a href="https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-ar-update-29-january-2024-outlook/">latest in a series</a> of atmospheric rivers to bring extreme rainfall to the West Coast. While these storms are dreaded for the damage they can cause, they are also essential to the region’s water supply, particularly in California, as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=aTFYE98AAAAJ&hl=en">Qian Cao</a>, a hydrologist at the University of California, San Diego, explains.</em></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1754534734300885206"}"></div></p>
<h2>What are atmospheric rivers?</h2>
<p>An atmospheric river is a narrow corridor or filament of concentrated water vapor transported in the atmosphere. It’s like a river in the sky that can be <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70036359">1,000 miles long</a>. On average, atmospheric rivers have about <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/ranking-atmospheric-rivers-new-study-finds-world-of-potential">twice the regular flow of the Amazon River</a>.</p>
<p>When atmospheric rivers run up against mountains or run into local atmospheric dynamics and are forced to ascend, the moisture they carry cools and condenses, so they can produce intense rainfall or snowfall.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/w3rtYM0HtIM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A satellite view of atmospheric rivers.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Atmospheric rivers occur all over the world, most commonly in the mid-latitudes. They form when large-scale weather patterns align to create narrow channels, or filaments, of intense moisture transport. These start over warm water, typically tropical oceans, and are guided toward the coast by low-level jet streams ahead of cold fronts of extratropical cyclones.</p>
<p>Along the U.S. West Coast, the Pacific Ocean serves as the reservoir of moisture for the storm, and the mountain ranges act as barriers, which is why the western sides of the coastal ranges and Sierra Nevada see so much rain and snow.</p>
<h2>Why are back-to-back atmospheric rivers a high flood risk?</h2>
<p>Consecutive atmospheric rivers, known as AR families, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0217.1">can cause significant flooding</a>.</p>
<p>The first heavy downpours saturate the ground. As <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abq0995">consecutive storms arrive</a>, their precipitation falls on soil that can’t absorb more water. That contributes to more runoff. Rivers and streams fill up. In the meantime, there may be snowmelt due to warm temperatures, further adding to the runoff and flood risk.</p>
<p>California experienced a <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">historic run</a> of nine consecutive atmospheric rivers in the span of three weeks in December 2022 and January 2023. The storms <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-western-drought-finally-ending-that-depends-on-where-you-look-201156">helped bring most reservoirs back</a> to historical averages in 2023 after several drought years, but they also produced damaging <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-flooding-landslides-as-atmospheric-river-power-outage">floods and debris flows</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An animation shows filaments of water heading toward the coast." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572019/original/file-20240129-21-24vhfq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572019/original/file-20240129-21-24vhfq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572019/original/file-20240129-21-24vhfq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572019/original/file-20240129-21-24vhfq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572019/original/file-20240129-21-24vhfq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572019/original/file-20240129-21-24vhfq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572019/original/file-20240129-21-24vhfq.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Atmospheric rivers forming over the tropical Pacific Ocean head for the U.S. West Coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/images/AR-animation.gif">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The cause of AR families is an active area of research. Compared with single atmospheric river events, AR families tend to be associated with lower atmospheric pressure heights across the North Pacific, higher pressure heights over the subtropics, a stronger and more zonally elongated jet stream and warmer tropical air temperatures. </p>
<p>Large-scale weather patterns and climate phenomena such as the <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care">Madden-Julian Oscillation</a>, or MJO, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0208.1">also play an important role</a> in the generation of AR families. An active MJO shift occurred during the early 2023 events, tilting the odds toward increased atmospheric river activity over California.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A truck drives through muddy streets that fill a large section of town. People stand on one small patch of pavement not flooded." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572098/original/file-20240130-21-dc67s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572098/original/file-20240130-21-dc67s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572098/original/file-20240130-21-dc67s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572098/original/file-20240130-21-dc67s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572098/original/file-20240130-21-dc67s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572098/original/file-20240130-21-dc67s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572098/original/file-20240130-21-dc67s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An aerial view shows a flooded neighborhood in the community of Pajaro in central California on March 11, 2023, after a series of atmospheric rivers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-aerial-view-shows-a-flooded-neighborhood-in-the-news-photo/1248039581">Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A recent study by scientists at Stanford and the University of Florida found that storms within AR families <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi7905">cause three to four times more economic damage</a> when the storms arrive back to back than they would have caused by themselves.</p>
<h2>How important are atmospheric rivers to the West Coast’s water supply?</h2>
<p>I’m a research hydrologist, so I focus on hydrological impacts of atmospheric rivers. Although they can lead to flood hazards, atmospheric rivers are also essential to the Western water supply. Atmospheric rivers have been responsible for ending <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-02.1">more than a third</a> of the region’s major droughts, including the severe California drought of 2012-16.</p>
<p>Atmospheric rivers provide an average of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00546.x">30% to 50% of the West Coast’s annual precipitation</a>. </p>
<p>They also contribute to the snowpack, which provides a significant portion of California’s year-round water supply. </p>
<p>In an average year, one to two extreme atmospheric rivers with snow will be the dominant contributors to the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada. Together, atmospheric rivers will <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044696">contribute about 30% to 40%</a> of an average season’s total snow accumulation there.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dam spillway with a full reservoir behind it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572102/original/file-20240130-15-f4mjgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572102/original/file-20240130-15-f4mjgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572102/original/file-20240130-15-f4mjgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572102/original/file-20240130-15-f4mjgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572102/original/file-20240130-15-f4mjgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572102/original/file-20240130-15-f4mjgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572102/original/file-20240130-15-f4mjgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After several winter storms brought record snowfall to California’s Sierra Nevada in early 2023, Lake Oroville, California’s second-largest reservoir, was at 100% capacity. The previous year, much of the state had faced water restrictions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-an-aerial-view-water-is-released-on-the-main-spillway-at-news-photo/1498829327">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That’s why my colleagues at the <a href="https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/">Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes</a> at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, part of the University of California, San Diego, work on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0208.1">improving atmospheric river forecasts and predictions</a>. Water managers need to be able to regulate reservoirs and figure out how much water they can save for the dry season while still leaving room in the reservoirs to manage flood risk from future storms.</p>
<h2>How is global warming affecting atmospheric rivers?</h2>
<p>Warmer air can <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">hold more moisture</a>. As global temperatures rise in the future, we can expect more intense atmospheric rivers, leading to an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w">increase in heavy and extreme precipitation events</a>. </p>
<p>My research also shows that more atmospheric rivers are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0242.1">likely to occur concurrently during already wet conditions</a>. So, the chance of extreme flooding also increases. Another study, by scientists from the University of Washington, suggests that there will be a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0200.1">seasonal shift</a> to more atmospheric rivers earlier in the rainy season.</p>
<p>There will likely also be more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w">year-to-year variability</a> in the total annual precipitation, particularly in California, as a study by my colleagues at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes projects.</p>
<p><em>This article was update Feb. 5, 2024, with flooding and mudslides in California.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222249/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Qian Cao does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>These giant rivers in the sky are both destructive and essential for the Western U.S. water supply.Qian Cao, Hydrologist, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, University of California, San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219562024-01-25T13:17:10Z2024-01-25T13:17:10ZDiagnosing ‘warming winter syndrome’ as summerlike heat sweeps into central and eastern US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578072/original/file-20240226-22-sj8mc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C43%2C7333%2C4830&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chicago topped 70 degrees on Feb. 26, 2024. That's not normal.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WarmWeatherChicago/e74246d1976f4048a494c6cb1ce2c0dd/photo">AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the most robust measures of Earth’s changing climate is that winter is warming more quickly than other seasons. The cascade of changes it brings, including ice storms and rain in regions that were once reliably below freezing, are symptoms of what I call “warming winter syndrome.”</p>
<p>Wintertime warming represents the global accumulation of heat. During winter, direct heat from the Sun is weak, but storms and <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-cold-still-happens-in-a-warming-world-in-fact-climate-instability-may-be-disrupting-the-polar-vortex-221276">shifts in the jet stream bring warm air</a> up from more southern latitudes into the northern U.S. and Canada. As <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">global temperatures</a> and <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">the oceans warm</a>, that stored heat has an influence on both temperature and precipitation. </p>
<p>The U.S. has been feeling this warming in the winter of 2023-24, the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202402">warmest on record</a> for the Lower 48 states. </p>
<p>Snowfall has been <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1757548891602358455">below average</a> in much of the country. On the Great Lakes, the ice cover has been at <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/ice-coverage-nearly-nonexistent-across-great-lakes-historical-peak">record lows</a>. Late February saw a wave of <a href="https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1762158623793233989">summerlike temperatures</a> spread up into the central and eastern U.S., along with <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/severe-storms-with-nocturnal-tornado-risk-to-blitz-over-a-dozen-states/1625378">dangerous thunderstorms</a> and wildfires, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/texas-fires-with-over-1-million-acres-of-grassland-burned-cattle-ranchers-face-struggles-ahead-to-find-and-feed-their-herds-224840">Texas’ largest on record</a>. And forecasters expected <a href="https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conusLoop.php#tabs">another above-average warm spell in early March</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571278/original/file-20240124-21-v3590w.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571278/original/file-20240124-21-v3590w.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571278/original/file-20240124-21-v3590w.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571278/original/file-20240124-21-v3590w.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571278/original/file-20240124-21-v3590w.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571278/original/file-20240124-21-v3590w.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571278/original/file-20240124-21-v3590w.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The average lowest annual temperature, which affects where certain plants can grow, has shifted over the past half-century, reflecting the changing freezing line across the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/shifting-planting-zones-2023">Climate Central</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The longer warming trend is evident in changes to growing seasons, reflected in recent updates to plant hardiness zones printed on the <a href="https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/">back of seed packages</a>. These maps show the northward and, sometimes, westward movement of freezing temperatures in eastern North America. </p>
<h2>Ice storms and wet snow</h2>
<p>I <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=viGxwOwAAAAJ&hl=en">study the impact of global warming</a> and have documented changes to the climate and weather over the decades.</p>
<p>On average, <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/">freezing temperatures are moving</a> northward and, along the Atlantic coast, toward the interior of the continent. For individual storms, the transition to freezing temperatures even in the dead of winter can now be as far north as Lake Superior and southern Canada in places where, 50 years ago, it was reliably below freezing from early December through February.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571354/original/file-20240125-23-x46q84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two bar charts and a bell curve show the shifting average temperatures to more Januaries above freezing in recent decades." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571354/original/file-20240125-23-x46q84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571354/original/file-20240125-23-x46q84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571354/original/file-20240125-23-x46q84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571354/original/file-20240125-23-x46q84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571354/original/file-20240125-23-x46q84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571354/original/file-20240125-23-x46q84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571354/original/file-20240125-23-x46q84.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In northwest Wisconsin, along Lake Superior, there were no Januarys in the 1951-1980 time frame in which the average high temperature was even close to exceeded freezing. That has changed in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/us-climate-divisions#grdd_">Omar Gates/GLISA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When temperatures are close to the freezing point, water can be rain, snow or ice. Regions on the colder side, which historically would have been below freezing and snowy, are seeing an <a href="https://glisa.umich.edu/freezing-rain/">increase in ice storms</a>. </p>
<p>The character of snow also changes near the freezing line. When the temperature is well below freezing, the snow is dry and fluffy. Near freezing, snow has big, wet, heavy flakes that turn roads into slush and stick on tree branches and bring down power lines.</p>
<p>Because the climate in which snowstorms are forming is warmer due to global accumulation of heat, and wetter because of more evaporation and warmer air that can hold more moisture, individual snowstorms can also result in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/26/with-climate-change-washington-may-have-entered-era-more-blockbuster-snowstorms-less-snow-overall/">more intense snowfalls</a>. However, as temperatures get warmer in the future, the scales will tilt toward rain, and the <a href="https://glisa.umich.edu/resources-tools/climate-impacts/lake-effect-snow-in-the-great-lakes-region/">total amount of snow</a> will decrease.</p>
<p><iframe id="mRX0t" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mRX0t/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Indeed, on the warmer side of the freezing line, winter rain is already <a href="https://glisa.umich.edu/resources-tools/climate-impacts/lake-effect-snow-in-the-great-lakes-region/">becoming the dominate type of precipitation</a>, a trend that is expected to continue. With the warmer oceans as a major source of moisture, the already wet eastern U.S. can expect <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/">more winter precipitation over the next 30 years</a>. Looking to the future, soggy wet winters are more likely.</p>
<h2>Disaster and water planning gets harder</h2>
<p>For communities, planning for water supplies and extreme weather gets more complicated in a rapidly changing climate. Planners can’t count on the weather 30 years in the future being the same as weather today. It’s changing too quickly.</p>
<p>In many places, snow will not persist as late into spring. In regions like California and the Rockies that rely on the snowpack for water through the year, those supplies will <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter/">become less reliable</a>.</p>
<p>Rain falling on snowpack can also speed up melting, trigger flooding and change the flows of creeks and rivers. This shows up in changing <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-driving-rapid-shifts-between-high-and-low-water-levels-on-the-great-lakes-118095">runoff patterns in the Great Lakes</a>, and it led to <a href="https://weather.com/news/weather/video/rain-melting-snow-tidal-water-bring-flooding-to-east-coast">flooding on the East Coast</a> in January 2024.</p>
<p>For road planners, the rate of freeze-thaw cycles that can damage roads will increase during winters in many regions unaccustomed to such quick shifts.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A satellite image shows open water on the western shores the Great Lakes and storms forming to dump snow on the eastern shores." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571288/original/file-20240124-29-okndmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571288/original/file-20240124-29-okndmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571288/original/file-20240124-29-okndmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571288/original/file-20240124-29-okndmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571288/original/file-20240124-29-okndmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571288/original/file-20240124-29-okndmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571288/original/file-20240124-29-okndmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A lake-effect snowstorm in 2020 shows how cold, dry air passing over the Great Lakes picks up moisture and heat, becoming snow on the other side.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lake_Effect_Snow_on_Earth.jpg">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An especially interesting effect happens in the Great Lakes. Already, the <a href="https://research.noaa.gov/2024/01/18/why-low-ice-coverage-on-the-great-lakes-matters/">Great Lakes do not freeze as early</a> or as completely as in the past. This has large effects on the famous lake-effect precipitation zones.</p>
<p>With the lakes not frozen, more water evaporates into the atmosphere. In places where the wintertime air temperature is still below freezing, <a href="https://glisa.umich.edu/resources-tools/climate-impacts/lake-effect-snow-in-the-great-lakes-region/">lake-effect snow is increasing</a>. The Buffalo, New York, region saw <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-causes-lake-effect-snow-like-buffalos-extreme-storms-194953">6 feet of snow</a> from one lake-effect storm in 2022. As the air temperature flirts with the freezing line, these events are more likely to be rain and ice than snow.</p>
<p>These changes <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-cold-still-happens-in-a-warming-world-in-fact-climate-instability-may-be-disrupting-the-polar-vortex-221276">don’t mean cold is gone for good</a>. There will be occasions when Arctic air dips down into the U.S. This <a href="https://www.wilx.com/2024/01/24/fog-rain-wednesday-todays-headlines/">can cause flash freezing</a> and fog when warm wet air surges back over the frozen surface.</p>
<h2>Enormous consequences for economies</h2>
<p>What we are experiencing in warming winter syndrome is a consistent and robust set of symptoms on a fevered planet. </p>
<p>Novembers and Decembers will be milder; Februarys and Marches will be more like spring. Wintry weather will become more concentrated around January. There will be unfamiliar variability with snow, ice and rain. Some people may say these changes are great; there is less snow to shovel and heating bills are down.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People walk with umbrellas in freezing rain in New York in January 2024." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571457/original/file-20240125-21-uuw03m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1917%2C1270&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571457/original/file-20240125-21-uuw03m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571457/original/file-20240125-21-uuw03m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571457/original/file-20240125-21-uuw03m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571457/original/file-20240125-21-uuw03m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571457/original/file-20240125-21-uuw03m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571457/original/file-20240125-21-uuw03m.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rain or snow? As global temperatures rise, cities accustomed to snowy winters will see more rain and ice storms during the winter months.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-walk-through-light-snow-in-manhattan-as-new-york-news-photo/1945522082">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But on the other side, <a href="https://www.freep.com/in-depth/news/local/michigan/2021/01/03/michigan-winter-festivals-climate-change/3954384001/">whole economies are set up for wintertime</a>, many <a href="https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/Chill%20Hours%20Ag%20FS%20_%20120620.pdf">crops rely on cool winter temperatures</a>, and many farmers rely on freezing weather to control pests. Anytime there are changes to temperature and water, the <a href="https://www.wbez.org/stories/less-ice-on-the-great-lakes-due-to-warmer-winters/af180e73-78ac-4c64-acd5-d7118c46f89c">conditions in which plants and animals thrive are altered</a>. </p>
<p>These changes, which affect <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-threatens-the-winter-olympics-future-even-snowmaking-has-limits-for-saving-the-games-177040">outdoor sports and recreation</a>, <a href="https://glisa.umich.edu/resources-tools/climate-impacts/fish-wildlife/">commercial fisheries</a> and agriculture, <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/11">have enormous consequences</a> not only to the ecosystems but also to our relationship to them. In some instances, traditions will be lost, such as ice fishing. Overall, people just about everywhere will have to adapt.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published Jan. 25, 2024, has been updated with above-average heat across much of the central and eastern U.S. in late February and forecast in early March.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221956/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard B. (Ricky) Rood receives funding from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).</span></em></p>As the climate changes and weather warms, the freezing line is shifting, bringing rain to many regions more accustomed to snow.Richard B. (Ricky) Rood, Professor Emeritus of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212762024-01-17T18:53:24Z2024-01-17T18:53:24ZExtreme cold still happens in a warming world – in fact climate instability may be disrupting the polar vortex<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569735/original/file-20240117-17-9me2cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C43%2C5762%2C3519&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A blizzard with brutally cold temperatures hit Iowa and neighboring states on Jan. 12, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/with-three-days-until-the-iowa-caucus-iowans-plow-and-news-photo/1920707716">Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Extremely cold Arctic air and severe winter weather swept southward into much of the U.S. in mid-January 2024, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/15/us-weather-arctic-blast-extreme-cold">breaking daily low temperature records</a> from Montana to Texas. Tens of millions of people were affected by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/freezing-temperatures-cold-weather-map.html">dangerously cold temperatures</a>, and heavy lake-effect snow and snow squalls have had severe effects across the Great Lakes and Northeast regions.</p>
<p>These severe cold events occur when the <a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/3864">polar jet stream</a> – the familiar jet stream of winter that runs along the boundary between Arctic and more temperate air – dips deeply southward, bringing the cold Arctic air to regions that don’t often experience it. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A globe showing most of the US covered in below-normal temperatures" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569882/original/file-20240117-17-7w73t0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569882/original/file-20240117-17-7w73t0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569882/original/file-20240117-17-7w73t0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569882/original/file-20240117-17-7w73t0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569882/original/file-20240117-17-7w73t0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569882/original/file-20240117-17-7w73t0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569882/original/file-20240117-17-7w73t0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Surface temperatures at 7 a.m. EST on Jan. 16, 2024. Temperatures below freezing are in blue; those above freezing are in red. The jet stream is indicated by the light blue line with arrows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mathew Barlow/UMass Lowell</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An interesting aspect of these events is that they often occur in association with changes to another river of air even higher above the jet stream: the <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex">stratospheric polar vortex</a>, a great stream of air moving around the North Pole in the middle of the stratosphere. </p>
<p>When this stratospheric vortex becomes <a href="https://www.weather.gov/bis/sudden_stratospheric_warming_events">disrupted or stretched</a>, it can distort the jet stream as well, pushing it southward in some areas and causing cold air outbreaks. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569628/original/file-20240116-27-naovil.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two globes, one showing a stable polar vortex and the other a disrupted version that brings brutal cold to the South." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569628/original/file-20240116-27-naovil.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569628/original/file-20240116-27-naovil.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569628/original/file-20240116-27-naovil.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569628/original/file-20240116-27-naovil.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569628/original/file-20240116-27-naovil.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569628/original/file-20240116-27-naovil.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569628/original/file-20240116-27-naovil.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Arctic polar vortex is a strong band of winds in the stratosphere, 10-30 miles above the surface. When this band of winds, normally ringing the North Pole, weakens, it can split. The polar jet stream can mirror this upheaval, becoming weaker or wavy. At the surface, cold air is pushed southward in some locations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The January 2024 Arctic cold blast fit into this pattern, with the polar vortex stretched so far over the U.S. in the lower stratosphere that it had nearly split in two. There are multiple causes that may have led to this stretching, but it is likely related to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1">high-latitude weather</a> in the prior two weeks.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A globe showing most of the US covered in below-normal temperatures and two wavy lines following a similar track." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569884/original/file-20240117-27-8pkxk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569884/original/file-20240117-27-8pkxk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569884/original/file-20240117-27-8pkxk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569884/original/file-20240117-27-8pkxk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569884/original/file-20240117-27-8pkxk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569884/original/file-20240117-27-8pkxk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569884/original/file-20240117-27-8pkxk5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Surface temperatures and the jet stream at 7 a.m. EST on Jan. 16, 2024, with the stratospheric polar vortex also shown as the dark blue line.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mathew Barlow/UMass Lowell</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A polar view of the stratosphere showing two cold blobs over the US and Europe." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569903/original/file-20240117-27-sr3rpe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569903/original/file-20240117-27-sr3rpe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569903/original/file-20240117-27-sr3rpe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569903/original/file-20240117-27-sr3rpe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569903/original/file-20240117-27-sr3rpe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569903/original/file-20240117-27-sr3rpe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569903/original/file-20240117-27-sr3rpe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A polar view of the winds in the lower stratosphere at 7 a.m. EST on Jan. 16, 2024. The winds shown are approximately 10 miles above the surface, in the lower stratosphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mathew Barlow/UMass Lowell</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No, cold doesn’t contradict global warming</h2>
<p>After Earth just experienced its <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far">hottest year on record</a>, it may seem surprising to set so many cold records. But does this cold snap contradict human-caused global warming? As an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qWV-WIQAAAAJ&hl=en">atmospheric and climate scientist</a>, I can tell you, absolutely and unequivocally, it does not. </p>
<p>No single weather event can prove or disprove global warming. Many studies have shown that the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/">number of extreme cold events is clearly decreasing</a> with global warming, as predicted and understood from physical reasoning.</p>
<p>Whether global warming may, contrary to expectations, be playing some supporting role in the intensity of these events is an open question. Some research suggests it does.</p>
<p>The February 2021 cold wave that <a href="https://energy.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/UTAustin%20%282021%29%20EventsFebruary2021TexasBlackout%2020210714.pdf">severely disrupted the Texas electric grid</a> was also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">associated with a stretched stratospheric polar vortex</a>. My colleagues and I have provided <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi9167">evidence suggesting that Arctic changes</a> associated with global warming have increased the likelihood of such vortex disruptions. The effects of the enhanced high latitude warming known as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3">Arctic amplification</a> on regional snow cover and sea ice may enhance the weather patterns that, in turn, result in a stretched polar vortex.</p>
<p>More recently, we have shown that for large areas of the U.S., Europe and Northeast Asia, while the number of these severe cold events is clearly decreasing – as expected with global warming – it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01008-9">does not appear that their intensity</a> is correspondingly decreasing, despite the rapid warming in their Arctic source regions.</p>
<p>So, while the world can expect fewer of these severe cold events in the future, many regions need to remain prepared for exceptional cold when it does occur. A better understanding of the pathways of influence between Arctic surface conditions, the stratospheric polar vortex and mid-latitude winter weather would improve our ability to anticipate these events and their severity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221276/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mathew Barlow has received funding from the US National Science Foundation and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to study weather and climate extremes.</span></em></p>The world can expect fewer severe cold events as average temperatures rise, but people still need to be prepared for wintery blasts.Mathew Barlow, Professor of Climate Science, UMass LowellLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2207542024-01-11T13:26:11Z2024-01-11T13:26:11ZBlizzards are inescapable − but the most expensive winter storm damage is largely preventable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568721/original/file-20240110-17-o6v3sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C3955%2C2616&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wrecks during snowstorms can shut down highways, stranding drivers in the cold for hours.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/wyomissing-pa-a-tow-truck-works-on-freeing-a-stuck-tractor-news-photo/1303555959">Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Winter storms can easily become <a href="https://www.munichre.com/en/risks/natural-disasters/winter-storms.html">billion-dollar disasters</a> as the snow piles up on interstates and collapses roofs and power lines. Yet, while canceled flights and business interruptions can’t be avoided, what turns a snowstorm into a disaster often can be.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=2naNhTEAAAAJ">I have worked on engineering strategies</a> to enhance disaster resilience for over three decades and recently wrote a book, “<a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781633888234/The-Blessings-of-Disaster-The-Lessons-That-Catastrophes-Teach-Us-and-Why-Our-Future-Depends-on-It">The Blessings of Disaster</a>,” about the gambles humans take with disaster risk. Snowstorms stand out for how preventable much of the damage really is.</p>
<h2>Stay off the roads</h2>
<p>The easiest storm costs to avoid involve human behavior, including driving during snowstorms.</p>
<p>Successfully plowing the snow off a highway requires repeated passes to prevent snow from accumulating to the point where it piles up faster than it can be removed. However, that simple concept breaks down when an accident blocks the lanes, and traffic – including commerce and emergency vehicles – grinds to a halt.</p>
<p><iframe id="mXzo4" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mXzo4/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>When it takes snowmobiles to reach stranded drivers, the wait can be long and in <a href="https://www.kiro7.com/news/trending/woman-dies-after-getting-trapped-car-18-hours-by-snow-family-says/DVPZD7LWW5G6FL2TAIHX3VZPEE/">some cases lethal</a>. Hundreds of people were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/drivers-trapped-cars-after-us-snowstorm-shuts-major-road-virginia-2022-01-04/">stranded for up to 24 hours</a> on Interstate 95 during a snowstorm in Virginia in 2022.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, partly due to economic pressures, many people won’t stay home during a blizzard unless authorities close the roads or impose driving bans. Those who venture out should <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ilx/winter_drive2_social">be prepared to survive hours in the cold</a> and have proper gear to avoid <a href="https://www.livescience.com/6008-person-freeze-death.html">freezing to death</a>. It’s one reason the <a href="https://www.startribune.com/shorts-in-winter-why-some-minnesotans-stick-to-their-summer-finest/566656091/">fad of wearing shorts</a>, T-shirt and <a href="https://www.psucollegian.com/news/borough/why-do-penn-state-students-wear-shorts-during-the-winter/article_26c0d230-0c39-11e8-9b39-3bbbaf5414bc.html">flip-flops in winter</a> is ill-advised.</p>
<h2>Pay attention to roofs</h2>
<p>One snowflake at a time, wet snow can pile up to a weight of 30 pounds per cubic foot on a rooftop – enough to collapse a structure that is too light or not well designed. Although roof collapses are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000222">relatively rare</a>, they are expensive and can take months to repair.</p>
<p>How snow builds up on a roof depends on a variety of factors, including the height of the snow accumulation and whether anything prevents the snow from blowing or sliding away.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A vehicle drives past a show with the roof bowed all the way to the ground with a thick layer of snow on top." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568714/original/file-20240110-15-hir48o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568714/original/file-20240110-15-hir48o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568714/original/file-20240110-15-hir48o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568714/original/file-20240110-15-hir48o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568714/original/file-20240110-15-hir48o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568714/original/file-20240110-15-hir48o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568714/original/file-20240110-15-hir48o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heavy snow in 2014 collapsed this automotive shop’s roof in Hamburg, N.Y.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WintryWeather/959b64339c3c49c5b6585aee615c6b51/photo">AP Photo/Mike Groll</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Building codes specify the minimum snow weights that roofs must be able to handle to be safe. These have been updated over decades to minimize the risk of roofs failing, and they are <a href="https://www.structuremag.org/?p=19724">still improving</a>.</p>
<p>The national maps used to compute minimum snow loads were <a href="https://www.structuremag.org/?p=19528">updated in 2022</a> to include 30 years of additional snow load data. As a result, the amount of snow that new building designs <a href="https://steeljoist.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/SJI_Feb_Webinar_SnowLoads_022122_1Slide.pdf">should be able to handle</a> is up to <a href="https://assets.ccaps.umn.edu/documents/CPE-Conferences/structural/2022Structural722ASCE.pdf">80% larger than before</a> in some locations and as much as 40% less in others. For example, snow loads for new construction in New York City; Baltimore; Washington, D.C.; Reno, Nevada; Casper, Wyoming; and Beckley, West Virginia, are all significantly higher now than in the past.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, many cities and states have no buildings codes or have outdated ones. In 2022, the Federal Emergency Management Agency scored each state based on the stringency of its building codes on a 100-point scale, and <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/most-states-are-failing-on-building-codes-fema-says/">19 states received a score of 0</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men shovel snow off a roof. The snow is is higher than their waists." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568713/original/file-20240110-21-v76dmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568713/original/file-20240110-21-v76dmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568713/original/file-20240110-21-v76dmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568713/original/file-20240110-21-v76dmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568713/original/file-20240110-21-v76dmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568713/original/file-20240110-21-v76dmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568713/original/file-20240110-21-v76dmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Shoveling snow from rooftops is dangerous, but the weight of too much snow can collapse a weak or older roof.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WintryWeatherPhotoGallery/4ac5affce0ca47148de8d5427e0af75d/photo">AP Photo/Gary Wiepert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To help them improve, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fema-offers-every-state-2-million-to-adopt-safer-building-codes/">FEMA is offering every state $2 million</a> this year to spend on enhancing its existing codes, studying new codes or training employees in using codes.</p>
<p>Better building codes help improve new construction, but older homes and buildings may still be at risk of a possible roof collapse during a heavy snowstorm.</p>
<p>Homeowners and business owners have a few options: Invest in an <a href="https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema957_snowload_guide.pdf">engineering assessment of the existing roof</a> and then strengthen the roof if needed. Have a team on standby to shovel snow off the roof, which <a href="https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/fema_snow_load_2014.pdf">can be dangerous</a> and a <a href="https://www.wje.com/knowledge/webinars/detail/snow-loads-webinar">major undertaking</a> for the flat roofs of large warehouse and industrial facilities, for example. Or gamble on insurance covering the full cost of repairs. </p>
<p><iframe id="eHNPp" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/eHNPp/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Prepare for power outages</h2>
<p>When it comes to infrastructure failure during snowstorms, power outages can be the biggest problem.</p>
<p>In 1998, an ice storm dumped freezing rain and drizzle for more than 80 hours on parts of eastern Canada and the Northeastern United States. As ice accumulated to as much as 3 to 4 inches near Montreal, <a href="https://www.wqad.com/article/weather/how-ice-storms-impact-the-power-grid/526-d582a4d4-c336-4422-a18e-5d1e0a7d0da8">the weight</a> snapped tree branches, caused power lines to collapse and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/btv/25th-Anniversary-of-the-Devastating-1998-Ice-Storm-in-the-Northeast">crumpled hundreds of transmission towers</a>, leaving more than <a href="http://news.hydroquebec.com/en/press-releases/1313/twenty-years-ago-quebec-was-battered-by-an-ice-storm/">3 million people there without power for several days</a> in early January. In large parts of Montreal’s South Shore, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1998_North_American_ice_storm">150,000 people were without power for up to three weeks</a> following the storm.</p>
<p>Winter storm Uri in 2021 was even more destructive, as it knocked out power in Texas and froze several other states, causing about US$<a href="https://www.munichre.com/en/risks/natural-disasters/winter-storms.html">30 billion in losses</a> – only about half of that insured.</p>
<p>Nearly everything today depends on reliable power – infrastructure systems, companies, vehicles and even agriculture. When the power failed during the 1998 storm, heating and ventilation systems stopped working. Pipes burst. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ice-storm-devastates-farm-livestock-1.165771">Farm animals froze to death or died of asphyxiation by the thousands</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A police car blocks a road where an ice-covered powerline has fallen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568712/original/file-20240110-27-nsu57k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568712/original/file-20240110-27-nsu57k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568712/original/file-20240110-27-nsu57k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568712/original/file-20240110-27-nsu57k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568712/original/file-20240110-27-nsu57k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568712/original/file-20240110-27-nsu57k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568712/original/file-20240110-27-nsu57k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ice storms like this one in the Northeast in 2018 can take down miles of power lines, causing blackouts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NortheastStorm/177f72669ed14f50b91ae0bb363444e6/photo">AP Photo/Steven Senne</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many industry sectors depend on the existing power infrastructure and operate without redundancy that could keep them running when the power goes out. While these optimized systems are slim, efficient and cost-effective – all good things under normal operating conditions – they are not resilient. Resilience, which is the ability to withstand or to recover quickly from extreme events, benefits from having a Plan B ready to deploy.</p>
<p>Power utilities nationwide have tree-trimming programs to minimize the risk of storms bringing branches down on power lines, and some <a href="https://www.fema.gov/case-study/overhead-underground-it-pays-bury-power-lines">utilities are burying power lines</a>, but power outages are still expected. Businesses and homeowners having a Plan B can minimize the risk of costly losses. Insulating water pipes can help avoid the risk of pipes bursting. Backup generators can help if operated safely to avoid hazards <a href="https://www.cpsc.gov/Newsroom/News-Releases/2007/CPSC-Warns-Winter-Storm-Victims-Use-Portable-Generators-Outdoors-Only1">such as fires and carbon monoxide poisoning</a>.</p>
<p>In short, staying off roads, under a roof that can handle the snow, and being prepared for what could be long power outages would help make snowstorms a day off rather than a disaster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michel Bruneau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Costs quickly rise when things go wrong with roads, roofs and power lines. Many of those risks are also avoidable.Michel Bruneau, Professor of Engineering, University at BuffaloLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2206342024-01-09T17:03:11Z2024-01-09T17:03:11Z2023’s billion-dollar disasters list shattered the US record with 28 big weather and climate disasters amid Earth’s hottest year on record<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568310/original/file-20240108-17-d7axzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=592%2C875%2C1145%2C839&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flood water filled streets in downtown Montpelier, Vt., on July 11, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/person-walks-through-the-flooded-waters-of-main-street-on-news-photo/1524301769?adppopup=true">Kylie Cooper/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>National weather analysts released their 2023 <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events/US/1980-2023">billion-dollar disasters</a> list on Jan. 9, just as 2024 was getting <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?">off to a ferocious start</a>. A <a href="https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/midwest-to-see-three-rounds-of-snow">blizzard was sweeping across</a> across the Plains and Midwest, and the South and East faced flood risks from <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/eastern-us-snow-storm-01-09-24/index.html">extreme downpours</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. set an unwelcome record for weather and climate disasters in 2023, with <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">28 disasters</a> that exceeded more than US$1 billion in damage each. </p>
<p>While it wasn’t the most expensive year overall – the costliest years included multiple hurricane strikes – it had the highest number of billion-dollar storms, floods, droughts and fires of any year since counting began in 1980, with <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-struck-with-historic-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2023">six more than any other year</a>, accounting for inflation. </p>
<p><iframe id="FOf4d" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FOf4d/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows where disasters that did more than $1 billion in damage hit the United States." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2023’s billion-dollar disasters. Click the image to expand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-struck-with-historic-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2023">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The year’s most expensive disaster started with an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151632/relentless-heat-in-the-southwest">unprecedented heat wave</a> that sat over Texas for weeks over the summer and then spread into the South and Midwest, helping fuel a destructive drought. The extreme heat and lack of rain dried up fields, forced ranchers to sell off livestock and restricted commerce on the Mississippi River, causing about <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events">US$14.5 billion in damage</a>, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/faq">conservative estimates</a>.</p>
<p>Extreme dryness in Hawaii contributed to another multi-billion-dollar disaster as it fueled <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">devastating wildfires</a> that destroyed Lahaina, Hawaii, in August. </p>
<p>Other billion-dollar disasters included <a href="https://www.weather.gov/tae/HurricaneIdalia2023">Hurricane Idalia</a>, which hit Florida in August; floods in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">Northeast</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">California</a>; and nearly two dozen other severe storms across the country. States in a swath from Texas to Ohio were hit by multiple billion-dollar storms.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man with a bicycle walks through a scene of destruction after the fire in Lahaina." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C1920%2C1258&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wildfire left almost the entire city of Lahaina, Hawaii, in ashes in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PicturesoftheWeek-Global-PhotoGallery/15a6864806e24d0cbb8b1037cfcf9931/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live-205974">El Niño</a> played a role in some of these disasters, but at the root of the world’s increasingly frequent extreme heat and weather is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">global warming</a>. The year 2023 was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">hottest on record globally</a> and the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202312">fifth warmest in the U.S.</a></p>
<p>I am <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shuang-Ye-Wu">an atmospheric scientist</a> who studies the changing climate. Here’s a quick look at what global warming has to do with wildfires, storms and other weather and climate disasters.</p>
<h2>Dangerous heat waves and devastating wildfires</h2>
<p>When greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide from vehicles and power plants, accumulate in the atmosphere, they <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/">act like a thermal blanket</a> that warms the planet. </p>
<p>These gases let in high-energy solar radiation while absorbing outgoing low-energy radiation in the form of heat from the Earth. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/earths-energy-budget-is-out-of-balance-heres-how-thats-warming-the-climate-165244">energy imbalance</a> at the Earth’s surface gradually increases the surface temperature of the land and oceans.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SN5-DnOHQmE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How the greenhouse effect functions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most direct consequence of this warming is more days with abnormally high temperatures, as large parts of the country saw in 2023.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/jpl/nasa-data-shows-fierce-surface-temperatures-during-phoenix-heat-wave/">Phoenix</a> went 30 days with daily high temperatures at <a href="https://apnews.com/article/southwest-extreme-heat-wave-922e965ba3d3e42cbffc2ece12d5c114">110 F (43.3 C) or higher</a> and recorded its highest minimum nighttime temperature, with temperatures on July 19 never falling below 97 F (36.1 C).</p>
<p>Although heat waves result from weather fluctuations, <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/">global warming has raised the baseline</a>, making heat waves more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps and charts show extreme heat events increasing in many parts of the U.S., both in length of heat wave season and in number of heat waves per year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of multi-day extreme heat events has been rising. U.S. Global Change Research Program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalchange.gov/indicators/heat-waves">U.S. Global Change Research Program</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That heat also fuels wildfires.</p>
<p>Increased evaporation removes more moisture from the ground, drying out soil, grasses and other organic material, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">creates favorable conditions for wildfires</a>. All it takes is a lightning strike or spark from a power line to start a blaze. </p>
<h2>How global warming fuels extreme storms</h2>
<p>As more heat is stored as energy in the atmosphere and oceans, it doesn’t just increase the temperature – it can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">increase the amount of water vapor</a> in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>When that water vapor condenses to liquid and falls as rain, it releases a large amount of energy. This is called <a href="https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2022/08/31/rain-energy-relationship/">latent heat</a>, and it is the main fuel for all storm systems. When temperatures are higher and the atmosphere has more moisture, that additional energy can fuel <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">stronger, longer-lasting storms</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two older adults look out a window over a yard turned to mud. The mudline on the house is almost up to the window sill, and the garage's doors have been torn off and are leaning down." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tropical Storm Hilary flooded several areas in Southern California, stranding people for days.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-trapped-in-their-home-peer-out-a-window-while-news-photo/1614093982">Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tropical storms are similarly fueled by latent heat coming from warm ocean water. That is why they only form when the sea surface temperature reaches a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/tropical-cyclone-introduction">critical level of around 80 F</a> (27 C).</p>
<p>With <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/">90% of the excess heat</a> from global warming being absorbed by the ocean, there has been a significant increase in the <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">global sea surface temperature</a>, including record-breaking levels in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart of daily global average ocean temperatures since 1981 shows 2023 heat far above any other year starting in mid-March and staying there through the year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global ocean heat in 2023 was at its highest in over four decades of records.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Higher sea surface temperatures can lead to <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">stronger hurricanes</a>, <a href="https://www.lsu.edu/mediacenter/news/2023/07/24keimhurricaneseason.rh.php">longer hurricane seasons</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">faster intensification</a> of tropical storms.</p>
<h2>Cold snaps have global warming connections, too</h2>
<p>It might seem counterintuitive, but global warming can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">contribute to cold snaps</a> in the U.S. That’s because it alters the general circulation of Earth’s atmosphere.</p>
<p>The Earth’s atmosphere is constantly moving in large-scale circulation patterns in the forms of near-surface wind belts, such as the trade winds, and upper-level jet streams. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">These patterns</a> are caused by the temperature difference between the polar and equatorial regions.</p>
<p>As the Earth warms, the polar regions are heating up <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/warming-polar-regions">more than twice as fast</a> as the equator. This can shift weather patterns, leading to extreme events in unexpected places. Anyone who has experienced a “polar vortex event” knows how it feels when the jet stream dips southward, bringing frigid Arctic air and winter storms, despite the generally warmer winters.</p>
<p>In sum, a warmer world is a more violent world, with the additional heat fueling increasingly more extreme weather events.</p>
<p><em>This article, <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">originally published Dec. 19, 2023</a>, was updated Jan. 9, 2024, with NOAA’s disasters list.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An atmospheric scientist explains how rising temperatures are helping to fuel extreme storms, floods, droughts and devastating wildfires.Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2175002023-12-19T13:16:33Z2023-12-19T13:16:33Z2023’s extreme storms, heat and wildfires broke records – a scientist explains how global warming fuels climate disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564609/original/file-20231209-21-y5rf6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5772%2C3767&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Extreme downpours filled downtown Montpelier, Vt., with water in July 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flooding-in-downtown-montpelier-vermont-on-tuesday-july-11-news-photo/1526471549">John Tully for The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The year 2023 was marked by extraordinary heat, wildfires and weather disasters. </p>
<p>In the U.S., an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151632/relentless-heat-in-the-southwest">unprecedented heat wave</a> gripped much of Texas and the Southwest with highs well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 Celsius) for the entire month of July.</p>
<p>Historic rainfall in April <a href="https://theconversation.com/historic-flooding-in-fort-lauderdale-was-a-sign-of-things-to-come-a-look-at-who-is-most-at-risk-and-how-to-prepare-204101">flooded Fort Lauderdale, Florida</a>, with 25 inches of rain in 24 hours. A wave of severe storms in July sent water pouring into <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">cities across Vermont</a> and New York. Another powerful system in December swept up the Atlantic coast with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/18/east-coast-storm-winds-flooding-outages/">hurricane-like storm surge</a> and heavy rainfall. The West Coast started and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4_yCYlSnmo">ended the year</a> with flooding and mudslides from <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">atmospheric rivers</a>, and California was <a href="https://theconversation.com/tropical-storm-hilary-pounds-southern-california-with-heavy-rain-flash-flooding-211869">hit in August by a tropical storm</a> – an extremely rare event there.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">Wildfires ravaged Hawaii</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/louisiana-wildfire-b9d8968c1ce98b009c3ce95fa08a8f40">Louisiana</a> and several other states. And Canada’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-wildfire-season-worst-ever-more-to-come-1.6934284">worst fire season</a> on record <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-americas-summer-of-wildfire-smoke-2023-was-only-the-beginning-210246">sent thick smoke</a> across large parts of North America.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in shorts in flipflops walks among burned out cars. Not much remains of the houses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A person walks through a scene of destruction after a wildfire left almost the entire city of Lahaina, Hawaii, in ashes in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXHawaiiFires/28d53ef953524ec8ba61a0c7ec830881/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Globally, 2023 was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-warm-november-consolidates-2023-warmest-year">warmest year on record</a>, and it wreaked havoc around the world. <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live-205974">El Niño</a> played a role, but <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">global warming</a> is at the root of the world’s increasing extreme weather.</p>
<p>So, how exactly is global warming linked to fires, storms and other disasters? I am <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shuang-Ye-Wu">an atmospheric scientist</a> who studies the changing climate. Here’s what you need to know.</p>
<h2>Dangerous heat waves and devastating wildfires</h2>
<p>When greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide from vehicles and power plants, accumulate in the atmosphere, they <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/">act like a thermal blanket</a> that warms the planet. </p>
<p>These gases let in high-energy solar radiation while absorbing outgoing low-energy radiation in the form of heat from the Earth. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/earths-energy-budget-is-out-of-balance-heres-how-thats-warming-the-climate-165244">energy imbalance</a> at the Earth’s surface gradually increases the surface temperature of the land and oceans.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SN5-DnOHQmE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How the greenhouse effect functions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most direct consequence of this warming is more days with abnormally high temperatures, as many countries saw in 2023.</p>
<p>Extreme heat waves hit large areas of North America, Europe and China, breaking many local high temperature records. <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/jpl/nasa-data-shows-fierce-surface-temperatures-during-phoenix-heat-wave/">Phoenix</a> went 30 days with daily high temperatures at <a href="https://apnews.com/article/southwest-extreme-heat-wave-922e965ba3d3e42cbffc2ece12d5c114">110 F (43.3 C) or higher</a> and recorded its highest minimum nighttime temperature, with temperatures on July 19 never falling below 97 F (36.1 C).</p>
<p>Although heat waves result from weather fluctuations, <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/">global warming has raised the baseline</a>, making heat waves more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps and charts show extreme heat events increasing in many parts of the U.S., both in length of heat wave season and in number of heat waves per year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of multi-day extreme heat events has been rising. U.S. Global Change Research Program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalchange.gov/indicators/heat-waves">U.S. Global Change Research Program</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That heat also fuels wildfires.</p>
<p>Increased evaporation removes more moisture from the ground, drying out soil, grasses and other organic material, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">creates favorable conditions for wildfires</a>. All it takes is a lightning strike or spark from a power line to start a blaze. </p>
<p>Canada <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-report-card-2023-from-wildfires-to-melting-sea-ice-the-warmest-summer-on-record-had-cascading-impacts-across-the-arctic-218872">lost much of its snow cover</a> early in 2023, which allowed the ground to dry and vast fires to burn through the summer. The ground was also extremely dry in Maui in August when the city of <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">Lahaina, Hawaii, caught fire</a> during a windstorm and burned.</p>
<h2>How global warming fuels extreme storms</h2>
<p>As more heat is stored as energy in the atmosphere and oceans, it doesn’t just increase the temperature – it can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">increase the amount of water vapor</a> in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>When that water vapor condenses to liquid and falls as rain, it releases a large amount of energy. This is called <a href="https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2022/08/31/rain-energy-relationship/">latent heat</a>, and it is the main fuel for all storm systems.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two older adults look out a window over a yard turned to mud. The mudline on the house is almost up to the window sill, and the garage's doors have been torn off and are leaning down." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tropical Storm Hilary flooded several areas in Southern California, stranding people for days.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-trapped-in-their-home-peer-out-a-window-while-news-photo/1614093982">Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When temperatures are higher and the atmosphere has more moisture, that additional energy can fuel <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">stronger, longer-lasting storms</a>. This is the main reason for 2023’s record-breaking storms. Nineteen of the 25 weather and climate disasters that caused <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">over US$1 billion in damage</a> each through early December 2023 were severe storms, and two more were flooding that resulted from severe storms.</p>
<p>Tropical storms are similarly fueled by latent heat coming from warm ocean water. That is why they only form when the sea surface temperature reaches a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/tropical-cyclone-introduction">critical level of around 80 F</a> (27 C).</p>
<p>With <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/">90% of the excess heat</a> from global warming being absorbed by the ocean, there has been a significant increase in the <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">global sea surface temperature</a>, including record-breaking levels in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line chart shows daily ocean temperature records for every year since 1981, 2023 was far beyond any other year starting in mid-May." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global ocean heat in 2023 went far beyond any other year in over four decades of records.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Higher sea surface temperatures can lead to <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">stronger hurricanes</a> and <a href="https://www.lsu.edu/mediacenter/news/2023/07/24keimhurricaneseason.rh.php">longer hurricane seasons</a>. They can also lead to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">faster intensification</a> of hurricanes.</p>
<p>Hurricane Otis, which hit Acapulco, Mexico, in October 2023, was a devastating example. It <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico">exploded in strength</a>, rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm to a destructive Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours. With little time to evacuate and <a href="https://theconversation.com/acapulco-was-built-to-withstand-earthquakes-but-not-hurricane-otis-destructive-winds-how-building-codes-failed-this-resort-city-217147">buildings not designed to withstand a storm that powerful</a>, more than 50 people died. The hurricane’s intensification was the <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico">second-fastest ever recorded</a>, exceeded only by Hurricane Patricia in 2015.</p>
<p><iframe id="FOf4d" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FOf4d/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A recent study found that North Atlantic tropical cyclones’ <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">maximum intensification rates increased 28.7%</a> between the 1971-1990 average and the 2001-2020 average. The number of storms that spun up from a Category 1 storm or weaker to a major hurricane within 36 hours more than doubled.</p>
<p>The Mediterranean also experienced <a href="https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/individual.php?db_date=2023-09-13">a rare tropical-like cyclone</a> in September 2023 that offers a warning of the magnitude of the risks ahead – and a reminder that many communities are unprepared. Storm Daniel became one of the deadliest storms of its kind when it <a href="https://wmo.int/media/news/storm-daniel-leads-extreme-rain-and-floods-mediterranean-heavy-loss-of-life-libya">hit Libya</a>. Its heavy rainfall overwhelmed two dams, causing them to collapse, killing <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-fears-rain-clouds-and-climate-change">thousands of people</a>. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/05/greece-flooding-daniel-climate-europe/">heat and increased moisture</a> over the Mediterranean made the storm possible.</p>
<h2>Cold snaps have global warming connections, too</h2>
<p>It might seem counterintuitive, but global warming can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">contribute to cold snaps</a> in the U.S. That’s because it alters the general circulation of Earth’s atmosphere.</p>
<p>The Earth’s atmosphere is constantly moving in large-scale circulation patterns in the forms of near-surface wind belts, such as the trade winds, and upper-level jet streams. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">These patterns</a> are caused by the temperature difference between the polar and equatorial regions.</p>
<p>As the Earth warms, the polar regions are heating up <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/warming-polar-regions">more than twice as fast</a> as the equator. This can shift weather patterns, leading to extreme events in unexpected places. Anyone who has experienced a “polar vortex event” knows how it feels when the jet stream dips southward, bringing frigid Arctic air and winter storms, despite the generally warmer winters.</p>
<p>In sum, a warmer world is a more violent world, with the additional heat fueling increasingly more extreme weather events.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US saw a record number of billion-dollar disasters in 2023, even when accounting for inflation. The number of long-running heat waves like the Southwest experienced is also rising.Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200392023-12-18T02:57:15Z2023-12-18T02:57:15ZNorth Queensland’s record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what’s to come under climate change<p>Unprecedented rain brought by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-13/qld-tropical-cyclone-jasper-weather-pattern-warning-bom/103220130">Tropical Cyclone Jasper</a> has triggered widespread flooding in far north Queensland, forcing thousands of people to evacuate. Cairns airport is <a href="https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/weather/cairns-down-to-30-hours-of-water-supply-tinaroo-dam-to-spill/news-story/0a25a5096a1219ae031f02fd6c0ea145">closed</a>, roads are extensively damaged and residents in the city’s northern beaches are cut off by floodwaters.</p>
<p>Some rain gauges in the Barron and Daintree River catchments recorded <a href="https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/12/18/cairns-flooding">more than 2m of rain</a> over recent days, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-18/qld-record-flooding-far-north-monday/103239260">more rain is expected</a>. Water levels in the lower Barron River have <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/far-north-queensland-hit-by-heavy-rain-flash-flooding/news-story/9731b48d321bb7a60ecaf8e26c7d7dd4">smashed the previous record</a> set by devastating floods in <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/catalog/6858263">March 1977</a>. On Monday morning, the Daintree River was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/27/queensland-flooding-emergency-alert-as-daintree-river-beats-118-year-record">more than 2m</a> higher than the previous 118-year-old flood level, recorded in 2019.</p>
<p>The full impacts of the flood are not yet clear. But there’s likely to be significant damage to properties and public infrastructure, and negative effects for industries such as tourism and agriculture. Recovery is likely to take many months.</p>
<p>So let’s take a closer look at what caused this emergency – and what to expect as climate change worsens.</p>
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<h2>A ‘sweet spot’ for torrential rain</h2>
<p>Tropical Cyclone Jasper <a href="https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/99359">crossed the coas</a>t north of Cairns on Wednesday last week, tracking over the remote Indigenous community of Wujal Wujal. Damage from wind and storm surge was minimal, but Jasper still produced more than 800mm of rain across the Daintree and Mossman River catchments.</p>
<p>Late Wednesday, the cyclone was downgraded to a tropical low. It crossed southern Cape York Peninsula and headed towards the Gulf of Carpentaria. By Friday, local tourism agencies and operators <a href="https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/touring-resumes-in-tropical-north-queensland/news-story/77c2b9db23c9bac95599911f363b346e?fbclid=IwAR1kxHaWGj7xfSwmjcoe_ULs0l6Ulc-vhXLqgZYSIQUTQAX5Y156R2FAYyo">announced</a> they were back in business, inviting visitors back to the region.</p>
<p>However, by Saturday morning, a significant rainfall and flood emergency was unfolding across a 360 kilometre swathe from Cooktown to Ingham. So what happened? </p>
<p>The ex-cyclone stalled just inland from the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria, creating a sweet spot for torrential rain known as a “stationary convergence zone”. Incredibly moist tropical winds collided over a narrow zone between Port Douglas and Innisfail. This effect converged with northerly winds from the Gulf of Carpentaria and southeast trade winds from the Coral Sea. Local mountain ranges created extra uplift. All this led to non-stop torrential rain for 48 hours.</p>
<p>As a result, an emergency situation rapidly grew across Cairns and the Barron River delta to its immediate north. </p>
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<h2>Townsville floods: similar but different</h2>
<p>This extreme flood event bears some similarity to that which caused <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-can-make-catastrophic-weather-systems-linger-for-longer-111832">significant damage to Townsville</a> in February 2019. Both were associated with a stationary convergence zone caused by a stalled tropical low located to their northwest. In the case of Townsville, the tropical low did not budge for more than ten days. In that time, Townsville received the equivalent of a year’s average rainfall.</p>
<p>Otherwise, the two events are very different. </p>
<p>Firstly, the Townsville floods occurred during a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/three-phases-of-ENSO.shtml">neutral year</a> – that is, in the absence of the climate drivers La Niña and El Niño. But the current flood event has occurred during an <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">El Niño</a>, when tropical cyclones are much less likely to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/history/climatology/#:%7E:text=Tropical%20cyclones%20in%20the%20Australian,fewer%20during%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20years.">occur in the Australian region</a>, especially in early December.</p>
<p>Secondly, the deep tropical low that caused the 2019 Townsville floods was embedded in an <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=monsoon#:%7E:text=Low%20pressure%20is%20created%2C%20which,or%20an%20%22inactive%22%20phase">active monsoon trough</a>, which sucked in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-can-make-catastrophic-weather-systems-linger-for-longer-111832">very moist equatorial air from Indonesia</a>. But unusually, Cyclone Jasper did not form in such conditions. The monsoon trough is still to appear and form over northern Australia. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<h2>What’s climate change got to do with it?</h2>
<p>As 2023 closes as the <a href="https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/2023-shatters-climate-records-major-impacts">warmest year on record</a>, there is growing global concern about the rise of <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/climate-change-qa/impacts">extreme weather events</a> such as floods, droughts and heatwaves.</p>
<p>The atmosphere and oceans are warming due to increasing emissions of <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/what-is-climate-change/#:%7E:text=Global%20warming%20is%20the%20long,gas%20levels%20in%20Earth%27s%20atmosphere.">greenhouse gases</a>, largely caused by burning fossil fuels. This has led to a greater risk of extreme rainfall and flooding, such as the events we’re seeing now in far north Queensland. </p>
<p>For every 1°C rise in average global temperature, the atmosphere can hold <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/">an extra 7% water vapour</a>. When the right atmospheric “triggers” are in place, this extra water vapour is released as intense rainfall.</p>
<p>It’s too soon to attribute the current extreme rain and flooding to climate change. But as the world continues to warm, such events will become more frequent and severe.</p>
<p>Already, extreme flood events globally are becoming <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">more regular</a> and their magnitude is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once-209214">breaking</a> many long-term rainfall and river flood records. </p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">As extreme downpours trigger flooding around the world, scientists take a closer look a global warming's role</a>
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<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Once the immediate crisis in North Queensland has subsided, local and state authorities will need to grapple with how to deal with the “new normal” of extreme weather events. The big question is: are they prepared?</p>
<p>Since the big <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/brochures/barron/barron.shtml">Barron River flood in March 1977</a>, considerable residential and commercial development has been permitted across the river’s floodplain. In many cases, these earlier developments were approved without full consideration of <a href="https://www.cairns.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/489618/Planning-Scheme-Policy-Natural-hazards-Version-2.0.pdf">future floods</a>. Many were also approved before local government planning started taking sea level rise into consideration.</p>
<p>The wider Cairns community will recover from this extreme event and will hopefully take on board any problems identified in the emergency responses. In future, emergency planning must take the effects of climate change more seriously. This includes increases in sea level, and more intense tropical cyclones, storm surges, rainfall and flooding.</p>
<p>As of this month, a climate emergency had been declared in <a href="https://climateemergencydeclaration.org/climate-emergency-declarations-cover-15-million-citizens/">2,351 jurisdictions and local government areas</a> around the world. As a result, many jurisdictions have developed response plans. In Australia, local governments should recognise climate change threats and risks by formally declaring a climate emergency.</p>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220039/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Turton has previously received funding from the Australian government.</span></em></p>Once the immediate crisis in North Queensland has subsided, authorities will need to grapple with how to deal with the ‘new normal’ of extreme weather events. The big question is: are they prepared?Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189812023-12-12T08:55:11Z2023-12-12T08:55:11ZHuman trafficking, sexual abuse and exploitation: the ‘loss and damage’ from climate change a fund will not compensate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564873/original/file-20231211-23-wvorvb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1280%2C852&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A child's doll discarded during a storm.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Violence against women and children, including sexual abuse and exploitation, remains a taboo subject in the policy debates attended by international delegates at COP28, the latest round of the UN climate negotiations in Dubai. However, the connections between climate change and gender-based violence, including human trafficking, are real and already blight lives worldwide.</p>
<p>Countries at COP28 have agreed to set up a loss and damage fund which would pay poor nations for the irreparable harm caused by the deteriorating climate. How can we compensate <a href="https://theconversation.com/mental-health-distress-in-the-wake-of-bangladesh-cyclone-shows-the-devastation-of-climate-related-loss-and-damage-171712">non-economic loss and damage</a> – the impacts of climate change that cannot be easily measured in monetary terms? </p>
<p>To answer this question, we must understand how these impacts already affect people in the world’s most vulnerable regions. By <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03624-y">interviewing</a> people in Bangladesh, Fiji and Vanuatu, we found that climate change is a trigger that can worsen, intensify or prolong the perpetration of violence and coercive control.</p>
<h2>Entrapment in Bangladesh</h2>
<p>Among the girls and young women I spoke to in Bangladesh, child marriage was a common coping mechanism for the lost income and insecure food supplies associated with unpredictable weather. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101904">Storms</a>, punishing heat and unreliable rain made migration from the countryside to cities inevitable. Many migrant women and girls turned to work in the garment industry. In the factories and nearby dwellings, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0207485">violence</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.2147/ijwh.s137250">poor mental health</a> are especially common for female migrant workers.</p>
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<img alt="Aerial view of a slum with high-rise buildings bordering it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Bhola slum in Dhaka. Most residents migrated from Bangladesh’s disaster-prone southern coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span></span>
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<p>Hunger has pushed numerous households to marry off their daughters and sisters. Belkis, a woman I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1777078">interviewed</a>, described how her family struggled with poverty and health issues during her childhood after they migrated from the southern coast of Bangladesh to the capital Dhaka, escaping <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100237">cyclones</a> and land erosion:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I got married when I was 12 years old. A few years later I gave birth to my first son. I faced a lot of problems giving birth to him … A woman from work was a doctor so she took me to Dhaka Medical Hospital. There they did some tests and noticed that my kidneys were failing.</p>
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<p>Her sons may also need to leave school and start working. If she has a daughter, she may be forced to marry as a child. Harsh living and working conditions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-0443-2">scar the health and wellbeing</a> of entire families – but hit women and children hardest.</p>
<h2>Child sexual exploitation and trafficking in Fiji</h2>
<p>Unrest swept Fiji in 2021 after a ten-year-old girl on Vanua Levu, one of the islands in the north east, was raped by her uncle in a cyclone shelter. He was sentenced to 14 years imprisonment. </p>
<p>The incident was not an isolated event. Women we spoke to in Nadi, a city on Fiji’s main island, describe rapes in shelters and report children being trafficked for sexual purposes after the floods.</p>
<p>Overcrowded shelters create unsafe conditions. Many of the toilets have windows but no doors, let alone locks. Disaster evaluation reports also indicate that many emergency responders in Fiji lack necessary training to identify signs of abuse (sexual or otherwise) and so are unable to prevent further violence. </p>
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<img alt="A boy sat surrounded by corrugated iron pouring a bucket of water over his head." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Informal sanitation can be a safety risk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span></span>
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<p>Lusi*, a Red Cross health coordinator, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Women are more vulnerable to violence in the wake of cyclones. In tents and makeshift shelters, there’s a lack of privacy and proper lighting, which makes it harder to stay safe.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Nasele*, a 22-year old woman that we interviewed in Nadi, explained:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In the dark [women] have to go out and this places [them] in unsafe conditions. In evacuation centres, women and children get exposed to sexual dangers – children’s rights are ignored. In this country, disaster management [offers no] quick recovery for women and children.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Nacanieli*, a Save the Children officer working in Nadi observed trafficking, sexual exploitation and violence:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The woman moved her family to Nadi to live with her new [Australian] husband. One year later, she returned to our office and told the SCF staff [that]…her new husband had moved the family to Australia and upon their arrival they were held captive in his house. She told me about the sexual exploitation of her oldest daughter (she was 14 years old at the time). …The woman was too scared to go to the police and lived in fear while in Australia. She and her children eventually fled the country with the help of a neighbour. The oldest daughter is now involved in prostitution in Nadi … We saw the scars of what looked like needle marks and cigarette burns on the woman and all four of her children.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In recent years, tourist hotspots such as Nadi in Fiji have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03624-y">seen a peak</a> in child sexual abuse, trafficking and exploitation, primarily by perpetrators from Australia, New Zealand, the US and Europe.</p>
<h2>Loss and healing in Vanuatu</h2>
<p>Women in Vanuatu found recovery and healing in their social networks, which stuck together and aided their recovery from cyclones and drought. The women ensured there was support for the most in need, such as widows and people living with disabilities.</p>
<p>Women and children may be more vulnerable, but they should not be seen as passive victims. In Vanuatu, ideals that are typically considered to be feminine traits – such as inclusiveness and caring for the weak – were strengths that supported the entire population’s <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781032275611-25/women-stories-loss-recovery-climatic-events-pacific-islands-rachel-clissold-karen-mcnamara">recovery</a> from natural hazards.</p>
<p>Research such as ours gathers local experiences of non-economic loss and damage. Despite this, few climate change studies apply similar people-centred approaches.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A girl decorating her friend's arm with henna." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vanuatu’s woman-led recovery networks are a model for post-disaster mutual aid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is a problem because loss and damage is never entirely <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03053-9">environmental</a>. As well as the destruction of land, crops or livestock, loss and damage must come to include child marriage, sexual violence, coercive and controlling behaviour, human trafficking and exploitation. </p>
<p>By widening our understanding of what loss and damage means, we can support more people more thoroughly. We must all learn from the women in Vanuatu by caring for those in need and healing collectively from the trauma of climate-related violence.</p>
<p>Losses and damages to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102594">wellbeing</a> and dignity can never be wholly measured and compensated within a market.</p>
<p><em>*Aliases were used to protect people’s identity.</em></p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218981/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson receives funding from The Modern Slavery and Human Rights Policy and Evidence Centre led by the Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law and is funded by the Art and Humanities Research Council on behalf of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).</span></em></p>Though hard to quantify, the social consequences of climate change are vast.Dr Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Associate Professor in Policy and Intersectionality, UCL & Honorary Senior Researcher, United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2190702023-12-11T12:37:19Z2023-12-11T12:37:19ZMost investors aren’t paying attention to climate risks – the financial system needs to change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563999/original/file-20231206-29-q2o1yi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C45%2C5120%2C2828&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/financial-analysts-day-traders-working-on-2088641623">Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. For example, extreme sea-level events, where large storm surges and high tides temporarily push the sea much higher than normal, currently occur once a century. However, they are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/figures/figure-4-3">projected</a> to strike coastal areas every decade, if not yearly, by 2040.</p>
<p>Events like these have significant consequences for the global financial system, such as depressing economic growth. According to <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20352/w20352.pdf">research</a>, a once-in-a-hundred year cyclone is linked to an average income loss across all countries of nearly 15% per person, surpassing the 9% average income reduction typically observed in the aftermath of a financial crisis.</p>
<p>The extensive damage that extreme weather inflicts on infrastructure, homes and the economy could also lead to debt that a country may struggle to repay, potentially making it harder for it to borrow money in the future. <a href="https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4869">Research</a> I carried out with colleagues found that, by 2030, climate change should result in 59 countries seeing a deterioration in their ability to repay their debts, and a subsequent increase in their cost of borrowing.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-debt-more-expensive-new-study-211009">Climate change is making debt more expensive – new study</a>
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<p>However, it appears that investors (fund managers in charge of large amounts of investments) are not paying attention to these risks. A recent article in the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/830e3ae6-0c3c-4da9-87e7-4ff72aa3e249">Financial Times</a> revealed that oil and gas firms are facing virtually no additional borrowing costs, despite the fact that the future of the entire industry is at risk from the shift towards clean energy and global efforts to reduce carbon emissions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S037842662300153X?dgcid=author">Research</a> has also found that, while investors expressed some concern about the risks associated with climate policy, the direct risks from extreme weather itself had no impact on the price of US stocks between 2000 and 2018.</p>
<p>Why are investors responding in this way? Not having access to the right information is only part of the equation. Investors also need to believe that climate change will actually have material consequences for financial markets.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bridge that has been destroyed by a hurricane." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563992/original/file-20231206-21-yeures.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563992/original/file-20231206-21-yeures.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563992/original/file-20231206-21-yeures.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563992/original/file-20231206-21-yeures.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563992/original/file-20231206-21-yeures.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563992/original/file-20231206-21-yeures.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563992/original/file-20231206-21-yeures.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Katrina destroyed the Biloxi bridge in Mississippi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hurricane-katrina-destroyed-biloxi-bridge-990842">Robert A. Mansker/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Access to information</h2>
<p>If a country seeks to borrow from financial markets for investments in public infrastructure, its credit rating will determine the cost of borrowing. The credit rating influences the interest the government will pay, akin to how an individual’s credit rating affects their mortgage repayments. </p>
<p>However, credit rating agencies <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op303%7Eeaa6fe6583.en.pdf">do not</a> consistently incorporate climate risks into their assessments. Government debt simply does not have the right climate metrics for investors to make informed decisions.</p>
<p>But, when investors are given the right information, they do generally make appropriate decisions. For example, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article-abstract/36/11/4588/7156853?redirectedFrom=fulltext">research</a> published in May 2023 explored the impact of exposure to sea-level rise on municipal bond yields in the US. (When an investor buys a municipal bond, they loan money to the local government in exchange for a number of interest payments over a defined period.)</p>
<p>Once presented with worst-case sea-level rise projections, investors adjusted their required rate of return on municipal bonds in coastal communities. In fact, a one-standard-deviation increase in exposure to rising sea levels resulted in a 7% to 10% increase in the cost of borrowing. </p>
<p>The availability of information on the financial risks associated with climate change is improving. However, much of this information is not brought together into a single place that helps financial markets analyse it.</p>
<p>Financial markets also require new tools to help them understand this new information. Part of the problem is that finance simply lacks the skills to understand environmental data.</p>
<h2>Processing it differently</h2>
<p>Access to the right information is, however, only one part of the problem. Even when investors do have access to this information, they process it differently to one another. </p>
<p>The same study suggests that investors in “less worried” (according to a survey of climate opinions) locations ignore sea-level projections completely. In the US state of North Carolina, for example, lawmakers have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-northcarolina-idUSBRE86217I20120703">removed the requirement</a> for long-term sea level rise projections to be included in planning applications.</p>
<p>The effect of sea level projections (information) on municipal bonds thus appears to be conditional on investors’ prior beliefs about climate change. The findings revealed that the projected increase in the interest rate associated with rising sea levels was only present in “more worried” locations. </p>
<p>Of course, investors in these locations not only needed to be worried about climate change, they also needed the right information for it to make a difference to the markets.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial shot of Wrightsville beach in North Carolina." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563994/original/file-20231206-25-2ut3cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563994/original/file-20231206-25-2ut3cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563994/original/file-20231206-25-2ut3cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563994/original/file-20231206-25-2ut3cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563994/original/file-20231206-25-2ut3cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563994/original/file-20231206-25-2ut3cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563994/original/file-20231206-25-2ut3cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The US coastal state of North Carolina appears to be ignoring the risk posed by climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wrightsville-beach-north-carolina-usa-dusk-2297688905">Sean Pavone/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s the solution?</h2>
<p>Having financial data that accounts for the risks posed by climate change is a necessary requirement for incorporating these risks into asset prices. It should not be surprising that oil and gas firms maintain low borrowing costs with high credit ratings when these ratings do not consider climate risks. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, access to financial indicators that are adjusted for climate risks is only one aspect of the challenge. Before this new data is integrated into the decisions that investors make, the investors must be convinced that climate change actually holds significant consequences for financial markets. </p>
<p>In this sense, encouraging investors to recognise the impact of climate change may ultimately pose more of a sociological challenge than an economic one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219070/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Burke received funding from the International Network for Sustainable Financial Policy Insights, Research and Exchange (INSPIRE).</span></em></p>Investors seem not to care about climate risks, but they really should.Matt Burke, WTW Research Fellow, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180932023-12-06T19:00:28Z2023-12-06T19:00:28ZDon’t applaud the COP28 climate summit’s loss and damage fund deal just yet – here’s what’s missing<p>Shortly after the opening ceremony of the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/">2023 United Nations climate negotiations</a> in Dubai, delegates of nations around the world rose in a standing ovation to celebrate a long-awaited agreement to launch a loss and damage fund to help vulnerable countries recover from climate-related disasters.</p>
<p>But the applause might not yet be warranted. The deal itself leaves much undecided and has been met with criticism by climate justice advocates and front-line communities.</p>
<p>I teach <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/profile/shannon-gibson/">global environmental politics and climate justice</a> and have been attending and observing these negotiations for over a decade to follow the demands for just climate solutions, including loss and damage compensation for countries that have done the least to cause climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Several dozen older men in suits walk with al-Jaber, who is one of a few men in traditional Middle Eastern dress. There might be six women in he photo, all, including Ursula von der Leyen, near the back." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563738/original/file-20231205-23-q6uxtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">COP28 President Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, center, walks with world leaders and representatives of countries to the climate summit’s opening ceremony. The loss and damage fund was one of the first items approved.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/leaders-and-representatives-of-countries-are-seen-upon-news-photo/1814982687">Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A brief history of loss and damage</h2>
<p>“<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/countries-agree-loss-damage-fund-final-cop27-deal-elusive-2022-11-20/">Breakthrough</a>” was the term often used to describe the decision at 2022’s COP27 climate conference to finally construct a loss and damage fund. Many countries rejoiced at this “<a href="https://www.ciel.org/news/cop27-reaction/">long-delayed</a>” agreement — it came 31 years after Vanuatu, a small archipelago in the Pacific, <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/a/wg2crp08.pdf">first proposed compensation</a> for loss and damage for climate-caused sea level rise in earlier negotiations.</p>
<p>The agreement was only a framework, however. Most of the details were left to a transitional committee that met throughout 2023 to forward recommendations on this new fund to COP28. A <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">United Nations report outlined at the committee’s second meeting</a> found that funding from wealthy nations to help poorer countries adapt to the ravages of climate change grew by 65% from 2019 to 2020, to $US49 billion. That’s still far below the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">$160 billion to $340 billion</a> the U.N. estimates will be needed annually by 2030. </p>
<p>As the <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/tc4">meetings went on</a>, developing nations, long wary of traditional financial institutions’ <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">use of interest-bearing loans</a>, which have left many low-income countries mired in debt, proposed that the fund be independent. Developed nations, however, insisted the fund be hosted under the World Bank and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/tensions-soar-over-new-fund-climate-loss-damage-ahead-cop28-2023-10-23/">held up the recommendations</a> until <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC5_4_Cochairs%20draft%20text_Rev2_4Nov2100.pdf">right before COP28</a>.</p>
<h2>Devil is in the details</h2>
<p>While any deal on funding for climate disaster damages was sure to be portrayed as a historic win, further investigation suggests that it should be welcomed with hesitation and scrutiny.</p>
<p>First, the fund contains no specifics on scale, financial targets or how it will be funded. Instead, the decision merely “invites” developed nations to “take the lead” in providing finance and support and encourages commitments from other parties. It also fails to detail which countries will be eligible to receive funding and vaguely states it would be for “economic and non-economic loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events and slow onset events.”</p>
<p>So far, pledges have been underwhelming.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dozens of tents line a road with floodwater on both sides." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563664/original/file-20231205-17-q4owc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extensive flooding from extreme rain destroyed homes and livelihoods across Pakistan in 2022. Residents set up tents along a stretch of dry land.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-aerial-photograph-taken-on-august-31-2022-shows-flood-news-photo/1242835834?adppopup=true">Fida Hussain/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Calculations of <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/bio/joe-thwaites/cop-28-climate-fund-pledge-tracker">early commitments total just over US$650 million</a>, with Germany and the United Arab Emirates pledging $100 million and the U.K. committing $75 million. The United States, one of the largest climate change contributors, pledged only $17.5 million in comparison. It’s a <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC2_SynthesisReport.pdf">shockingly low starting point</a>.</p>
<p>Also, any notion that this fund represents liability or compensation by developed countries — a major concern for countries with long histories of carbon pollution — was removed entirely. It in fact notes that loss and damage response is based on cooperation instead.</p>
<p><iframe id="WDR9t" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WDR9t/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In a rare win for the developing world, funds were made available — even at subnational and community levels — to all nations, though with yet-undetermined performance indicators.</p>
<p>Additional concern has been raised about the fund’s interim host – the World Bank. In fact, deciding on a host institution was one of the sticking points that nearly derailed earlier talks.</p>
<p>On one side, the United States and other <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/19/biden-climate-fund-fight-un-summit-00121772">developed nations insisted</a> the fund be hosted by the World Bank, which has <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R42463.pdf">always been led by an American</a> and has <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6642815/">historically spread pro-Western policies</a>. Developing countries, however, resisted the World Bank’s involvement based on their <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c9656/c9656.pdf">historical experiences</a> with its lending and structural adjustment programs and noting the bank’s role for years in financing oil and gas exploration as cornerstones of development efforts.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Banga, wearing a turban, and von der Leyen talk while sitting on the edge of a desk in a conference room." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563666/original/file-20231205-21-3dtchs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">World Bank President Ajay Banga speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at COP28 in Dubai on Dec. 2, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/world-bank-president-ajay-banga-speaks-with-european-news-photo/1815505102?adppopup=true">Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Following a stalemate and <a href="https://www.twn.my/title2/climate/info.service/2023/cc231101.htm">U.S. attempts to block a consensus</a>, a compromise was reached to host the fund under the World Bank for four years, with guardrails to ensure its independence and impact. After this window, the host structure will be reviewed, leading to either a fully independent fund or continuation under the World Bank.</p>
<p>The concern for critics with this route is that the compromise <a href="https://climatenetwork.org/2023/11/04/reactions-to-loss-and-damage-fund-tc5-meeting/">risks ending up as a permanent hosting situation</a>.</p>
<p>And there are more issues, such as the fund board’s composition, which only allows for national representatives, not civil society representatives such as from Indigenous groups, as developing countries requested. The scope of funding that will be allowed is also still up in the air. In the fund’s vague state, it opens the door for countries, as part of their loss and damage funding commitments, to count private loans, conditional import credits and even funding from the fossil fuel industry at the <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/03/cop28-bulletin-us-gcf-pledge-and-greenwash-oil-and-gas-charter/">same time the industry continues to fuel climate damage</a>.</p>
<h2>What happens next, starting in 2024</h2>
<p>To date, the international climate community does not have a solid track record when it comes to climate finance promises. Each successive fund — from the <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/about">Green Climate Fund</a> that supports green projects in the developing world to the <a href="https://www.adaptation-fund.org/about/">Adaptation Fund</a> that builds climate resilience for the most vulnerable nations — has been woefully undersourced from inception.</p>
<p>In 2021, the entire climate finance ecosystem, from national commitments to private investment, totaled <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-A-Decade-of-Data.pdf">$850 billion</a>. Experts indicate that <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-A-Decade-of-Data.pdf">this sum needs to be closer to $4.3 trillion</a>.</p>
<p>That target represents 20% year-over-year growth until the end of this decade – a significant ramp up from recent years.</p>
<p>From 2011 to 2020, total climate finance <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-a-decade-of-data/">grew at just 7% annually</a>. If this trend continues, not only will developing and most vulnerable countries lose faith in this process, but the very need for loss and damage funding will only grow.</p>
<p>The new fund board is mandated to hold its first meeting by Jan. 31, 2024. While this early start time is laudable, droughts will continue killing crops, and storms will continue flooding homes while the new fund engages in another series of meetings to determine who will qualify, how they can apply and how and when funds will actually be dispersed.</p>
<p><em>Researcher Will Erens, a student at the University of Southern California, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218093/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shannon Gibson is affiliated with the Global Justice Ecology Project. </span></em></p>The agreement still leaves many unanswered questions, as well as concerns from vulnerable countries about who will qualify, who pays and who is in charge.Shannon Gibson, Associate Professor of International Relations and Environmental Studies, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189992023-12-01T02:24:05Z2023-12-01T02:24:05ZCOP28 climate summit just approved a ‘loss and damage’ fund. What does this mean?<p>Day one of the COP28 climate summit saw the first big breakthrough: <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/news/2023/11/COP28-Presidency-unites-the-world-on-Loss-and-Damage">agreement on a “loss and damage” fund</a> to compensate poor states for the effects of climate change.</p>
<p>Met with a standing ovation in Dubai, the agreement means wealthy states and major polluters will put millions of dollars towards a fund that will in turn distribute funds to poor states harmed by climate change. The fund will be administered by the World Bank. Initial commitments amount to US$430 million.</p>
<p>It will come as a huge relief to the United Arab Emirates, the summit’s host. The country was under pressure even before talks began about its fossil fuel expansion plans and the fact the president of the climate talks is <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-inside-the-united-arab-emirates-the-oil-giant-hosting-2023-climate-change-summit-217859">chief executive of a national oil company</a>. This undoubtedly featured in the UAE’s decision to commit US$100 million to the fund.</p>
<p>Other countries to make <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/30/agreement-on-loss-and-damage-deal-expected-on-first-day-of-cop28-talks">initial commitments to the fund</a> include the United Kingdom ($75 million), United States ($24.5 million), Japan ($10 million) and Germany (also US$100 million). Pressure will now build on other wealthy countries, including Australia, to outline their own commitments to the fund.</p>
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<h2>What’s the history of the fund?</h2>
<p>The Loss and Damage Fund was <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/03/opinions/cop27-climate-loss-and-damage-vanuatu-sutter/index.html">first suggested by Vanuatu</a> in 1991.</p>
<p>At the heart of the push for this fund is a recognition that those countries likely to be most affected by climate change are the least responsible for the problem itself. The fund would ensure those who created the problem of climate change – developed states and major emitters – would compensate those experiencing its most devastating effects.</p>
<p>With global warming now locked in and effects already being felt, from natural disasters to rising sea levels, the fund also recognises the world has failed to prevent climate change from happening.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">commitment to establish such a fund</a> was one of the most important outcomes of last year’s climate talks in Egypt. Since then, a series of meetings had taken place to try to secure international agreement about how the fund would work, who would commit to it, and who would be eligible to receive funds.</p>
<p>These meetings have been characterised by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/03/un-climate-crisis-talks-resume-loss-damage-funding-poorest-countries">significant disagreement</a> over each of these points.</p>
<p>In that sense, the COP28 announcement is a welcome and significant breakthrough.</p>
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<h2>Questions remain</h2>
<p>There’s still a lot that needs clarifying about this fund. Some of the big outstanding questions include the fund’s size, its relationship to other funds, how it will be administered over the long term, and what its funding priorities will be.</p>
<p>In response to the announcement, leading <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/1st-day-climate-conference-sets-fund-countries-hit-105269216">African think-tank representative Mohamad Adhow noted</a> there were “no hard deadlines, no targets, and countries are not obligated to pay into it, despite the whole point being for rich, high-polluting nations to support vulnerable communities who have suffered from climate impacts”.</p>
<p>There is also concern about the World Bank’s role in overseeing the fund in the first instance. Developing countries expressed opposition to this idea in the lead up to COP28, questioning the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/why-loss-and-damage-funds-are-key-to-climate-justice-for-developing-countries-at-cop28">World Bank’s environmental credentials and the transparency</a> of its operations.</p>
<p>While initial funding may seem generous, most analysts would also agree this fund is a long way from covering the full range of effects. Some estimates suggest the costs of climate-related harms <a href="https://assets-global.website-files.com/605869242b205050a0579e87/655b50e163c953059360564d_L%26DC_L%26D_Package_for_COP28_20112023_1227.pdf">are already at $400 billion</a> annually for developing states: roughly 1,000 times the amount initially pledged.</p>
<p>Finally, we should not assume pledges will actually translate to countries putting their hands in their pocket. The Green Climate Fund announced in 2009 – designed to help developing states with their transition away from fossil fuels and to help with adaptation initiatives – included a commitment for developed states to provide <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-climate-finance-flows-are-falling-short-of-100bn-pledge/">$100 billion per year by 2020</a>. They fell well short of this goal.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-how-will-australia-navigate-domestic-climate-wins-and-fossil-fuel-exports-at-the-negotiating-table-218697">COP28: How will Australia navigate domestic climate wins and fossil fuel exports at the negotiating table?</a>
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<h2>The legacy</h2>
<p>Agreement on this fund is a good thing in recognising the inequality at the heart of the causes and effects of climate change, and may ultimately be one of the key outcomes of these talks.</p>
<p>Early agreement also means it cannot be used as a bargaining chip over other crucial parts of these negotiations. Now the talks can now focus on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-disasters-and-heat-intensify-can-the-world-meet-the-urgency-of-the-moment-at-the-cop28-climate-talks-217063">assessment of progress</a> towards meeting commitments to the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold warming to 1.5°C to limit further dangerous levels of climate change.</p>
<p>Whether the UAE organisers and the rest of the world take up this challenge effectively will determine the effectiveness of these talks, and quite possibly the fate of the planet.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-begins-4-issues-that-will-determine-if-the-un-climate-summit-is-a-success-from-methane-to-money-218869">COP28 begins: 4 issues that will determine if the UN climate summit is a success, from methane to money</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Economic and Social Research Council in the UK.</span></em></p>Through the Loss and Damage Fund, developed states and major emitters will compensate developing countries experiencing the most devastating effects of climate change. The fund is now operational.Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2188092023-11-30T23:07:06Z2023-11-30T23:07:06ZCOP28: the climate summit’s first Health Day points to what needs to change in NZ<p>Climate change has many effects, but one of the most significant will feature for the first time at COP28 – its impact on human health.</p>
<p>Now under way in Dubai, the latest Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change includes a <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/schedule">day dedicated to human health and climate action</a>, Taking place on December 3, it will be attended by a record number of health ministers from many governments.</p>
<p>Health Day is a big deal. Health is – or should be – at the centre of climate policy. Nations do not progress if the health of their population fails. We also know climate change is a serious threat to good health.</p>
<p>In the past 20 years, for example, the number of heat-related deaths among people aged 65 and over has <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/27-11-2023-global-health-community-calls-for-urgent-action-on-climate-and-health-at-cop28#:%7E:text=Health%20Day%20and%20Ministerial%20session,ministers%20will%20be%20attending%20COP28">increased by 70%</a> worldwide. Rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and the displacement of millions of people by floods and fires may <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01426-1">amplify the spread</a> of significant infectious diseases, such as dengue and cholera.</p>
<p>In New Zealand, <a href="https://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/superheated-storms-climate-drivers-health-effects-and-responses">extreme flooding</a> in Hawkes Bay and Tairawhiti in early 2023 meant thousands were cut off from essential supplies. Many were trapped in homes that could not be repaired. There were 11 deaths from drowning and injury. </p>
<p>How probable is it that these extraordinarily heavy rains were due to climate change? According to a <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/the-role-of-climate-change-in-extreme-rainfall-associated-with-cyclone-gabrielle-over-aotearoa-new-zealands-east-coast/">study led by Luke Harrington</a> from the University of Waikato, 75% probable. With extreme weather events more likely in future, addressing the consequences for human health becomes more urgent.</p>
<h2>Healthy adaptations</h2>
<p>Health has long been on the margin of climate negotiations. The focus has been on loss and damage to property and land.</p>
<p>Health programmes have seldom been at the front of the queue when global climate funds are distributed. It’s <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/27-11-2023-global-health-community-calls-for-urgent-action-on-climate-and-health-at-cop28#:%7E:text=Health%20Day%20and%20Ministerial%20session,ministers%20will%20be%20attending%20COP28.">estimated</a> less than one cent in every dollar spent by international development agencies on adaptation to climate change has gone to health projects.</p>
<p>And yet we know reducing the risks of climate change in the long term can also provide opportunities to lift the health of populations rapidly.</p>
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<p>These so-called “co-benefits” to human health may be <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/05-12-2018-health-benefits-far-outweigh-the-costs-of-meeting-climate-change-goals#:%7E:text=The%20latest%20estimates%20from%20leading,such%20as%20China%20and%20India">greater than the cost</a> of the climate interventions that enable them. One <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(18)30029-9/fulltext">study of project options</a> to reduce global air pollution, for example, found the median value of health co-benefits was roughly double the median cost of the project.</p>
<p>Closer to home, <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ehp.1307250">research has estimated</a> best-practice bike infrastructure in Auckland would return health benefits 10-25 times greater than the costs involved. </p>
<p>Meat farming and production have significant climate impacts, whereas plant-based and flexitarian diets are typically healthier for people, environments and the climate. They can also cut food bills by up to a third, according to an <a href="https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-11-11-sustainable-eating-cheaper-and-healthier-oxford-study">Oxford University study</a>.</p>
<h2>A climate and health strategy</h2>
<p>Health Day at COP28 is a significant opportunity to raise the profile of these interconnections and co-benefits. It will attract many senior politicians who might not otherwise attend the negotiations. </p>
<p>It also provides a platform for governments, international agencies, global funding bodies and the private sector to highlight initiatives and gather support.</p>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/schedule">programme</a> includes presentations on green healthcare, case studies in building health resilience, best-practice approaches to measuring the burden of disease due to climate change, and health funding priorities for agencies such as the Global Climate Fund. </p>
<p>One session will “showcase progress and new commitments to capture the vast health benefits of climate mitigation policies”. The closing session will “set out a roadmap and opportunities for action”.</p>
<p>The programme also suggests the basis for a New Zealand national climate and health strategy, so it is a pity Health Minister Shane Reti will not be attending. The new government is also repealing climate-related policies introduced by the previous administration, but it is not clear what will replace them.</p>
<p>Without the Three Waters infrastructure project, for instance, how will local governments be funded to sustain safe water supplies? Remember, the outbreak of campylobacteriosis in Havelock North in 2016, the largest mass poisoning in the country’s history, was caused by heavy rain washing sheep faeces into an unprotected water supply.</p>
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Read more:
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<p>Painstaking reforms to the Resource Management Act (which everyone agrees is cumbersome and out of time) will be shelved under the National-Act <a href="https://assets.nationbuilder.com/nationalparty/pages/18466/attachments/original/1700778592/National_ACT_Agreement.pdf?1700778592">coalition agreement</a>. This has serious climate-health implications. </p>
<p>Urban density done well, for example, saves commuting time and cuts greenhouse emissions, and improves health with cleaner air and more physical activity. But large-scale changes in land use like this require legislation fit for purpose.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, according to a <a href="https://newsroom.co.nz/2023/11/29/majority-say-nz-will-see-severe-climate-impacts-in-next-decade/">recent poll</a>, two-thirds of New Zealanders expect to see severe climate impacts in their region in the next decade, mostly floods and fires. How will New Zealand manage when these impacts mount up? </p>
<p>The Health Day at COP28 points to what is required. Health must be brought to the centre of climate policy. As the director-general of the World Health Organization, <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/27-11-2023-global-health-community-calls-for-urgent-action-on-climate-and-health-at-cop28">Tedros Ghebreyesus, has put it</a>:</p>
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<p>Prioritising health is not just a choice, it is the foundation of resilient societies.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alistair Woodward has received funding from the Health Research Council for environmental health studies. He is affiliated with Bike Auckland.</span></em></p>Nations struggle if the health of their population fails. But good health is seriously threatened by climate change. So putting health at the centre of climate action makes sense.Alistair Woodward, Professor, School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.