tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/fossil-fuels-22/articlesFossil fuels – The Conversation2024-03-19T20:37:08Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2237152024-03-19T20:37:08Z2024-03-19T20:37:08ZBill C-372: Banning fossil fuel ads does not go far enough<p>When the New Democratic Party MP Charlie Angus proposed <a href="https://www.parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/bill/C-372/first-reading">private member’s bill C-372 in February to ban fossil-fuel advertising</a> it is unsurprising that he struck a nerve with many. After all, standing up to fossil fuel interests in a natural resources economy such as Canada’s is unlikely to make you a lot of friends. </p>
<p>While the bill’s future remains uncertain, what is clear is that the debate it triggered has revealed interesting dynamics, and fault lines, at play within the Canadian economy and civil society. </p>
<p>Some reactions to bill C-372 show bad faith on the part of the lobbyists of the oil and gas sector — and illustrate still wide-spread ignorance about the existential threat of climate change. However, other lines of criticism thrown at Angus should be taken seriously, even if they ultimately fall short of being convincing.</p>
<h2>Free speech versus harm</h2>
<p>First in the list of criticisms is that this bill would unduly limit free speech. It is important to clarify that the bill does not concern individual free speech, but instead targets corporate communications. </p>
<p>The belief that corporations have a right of free speech is itself disputed both in Canada <a href="https://scholarship.law.umn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1556&context=concomm">and the United States</a>. More fundamentally, the right to free speech has to be weighed against the other rights at stake — including <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/canadian-environmental-protection-act-registry/right-to-healthy-environment.html">the right to live in a healthy environment</a>.</p>
<p>As Bill C-372 states, “air pollution caused by fossil fuels leads to millions of premature deaths globally, including tens of thousands of premature deaths in Canada alone” — a claim which has been substantiated by a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/countdown-health-climate">range of recent studies</a>. These numbers are only set to rise.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A 2021 report produced by British broadcaster Channel 4 detailing the extensive use of advertising on social media by large fossil-fuel corporations.</span></figcaption>
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<p>One of liberal societies’ core values is the idea that people are free to do what they want, unless their actions cause harm to others. I can have a bonfire, but I cannot do so in drought conditions when the fire would put lives at risk. </p>
<p>The emissions from fossil fuel production and consumption put lives at risk through global warming and extreme weather and they reduce the quality of life through air pollution and the respiratory diseases it causes. Indeed, one study argues that the <a href="https://bigthink.com/the-present/corporate-death-penalty/">U.S. coal industry currently kills more people than it employs</a>.</p>
<p>Allowing advertising for these activities adds insult to injury and infringes upon the rights and health of millions. It is hard to see how anyone could be against Bill C-372.</p>
<h2>Too costly compared to what?</h2>
<p>Some critics attack the analogy Angus draws between banning fossil fuel ads and the tobacco ban in the 1980s. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-ndps-effort-to-ban-the-promotion-of-big-oil-misses-the-mark/">Kelly Cryderman in the <em>Globe and Mail</em></a>, for example, asserted that “smoking is way easier to quit than oil” which is so central to our economy.</p>
<p>This critique insinuates that “quitting” fossil fuels would simply be too costly. It no doubt would be expensive, but the relevant question here is “costly compared to what?” A brief look at the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">latest report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would put this claim to rest. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, a recent <a href="https://canadianclimat.wpenginepowered.com/climate-change-is-coming-for-your-wallet/">report by the Canadian Climate Institute</a> has found that climate change will cost Canadians on average $700 a year over the next three years alone and as soon as 2025 “climate-induced damages will be slowing Canada’s economic growth to the tune of $25 billion annually, equal to about half the expected annual growth in our economy.” </p>
<p>You don’t have to read the fine print to get the idea that not quitting fossil fuels will be considerably more expensive than phasing them out. </p>
<p>Recognizing this, is entirely compatible with acknowledging the hard work many Canadians have put into fossil fuel extraction. A just transition requires providing them with new opportunities.</p>
<p>Furthermore, Bill C-372 asks no one to quit anything. It merely proposes to ban advertising fossil fuels. By any reasonable standard, this makes it a rather modest measure. Which brings us to a third point of contention.</p>
<h2>Who are the radicals here?</h2>
<p>When one reads claims that Bill C-372 allegedly requires us to <a href="https://torontosun.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-the-bizarre-logic-of-the-green-radicals">“try wintering in Canada without fossil fuel energy,”</a> one wonders whether the critics in question were reading some survival magazine instead of Bill C-372. But their intentions are clear. </p>
<p>They are working to portray the bill as a radical proposal formulated at the fringes of the political spectrum to the detriment of working people.</p>
<p>The consensus position among mainstream economists today is that fossil fuel production and consumption are inefficiently high, because their social and environmental costs – deaths, lung diseases, wildfires, atmospheric rivers, etc. – are <a href="https://core-econ.org/the-economy/microeconomics/10-market-successes-failures-02-pollution-effects.html">not adequately reflected in market prices</a>. Carbon taxes provide a potential remedy, but they remain a mostly under-utilized mechanism in most countries, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/carbon-tax-home-heating-oil-1.7015480">including Canada</a>.</p>
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<p>If carbon pricing via taxation is the mainstream, what would be a truly radical approach to the climate crisis? Perhaps doing away with the <a href="https://lpeproject.org/blog/privatizing-sovereignty-socializing-property-what-economics-doesnt-teach-you-about-the-corporation/">limited liability</a> of fossil fuel corporations, exposing them to trillions of dollars of damages in the future? Or <a href="https://jacobin.com/2020/08/nationalize-fossil-fuels-green-new-deal-big-oil">nationalizing the industry</a> to progressively wind it down? But banning fossil fuel advertising? It’s a drop in the bucket. A modest step at best.</p>
<p>It’s always hard to change one’s ways, both for individuals and societies. The worst possible attitude is to be in denial about what is required. Given the existential threat of climate change, the true radicals here are those opposing Bill C-372.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Dietsch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bill C-372 does not curtail free speech and, if anything, demonstrates how banning fossil fuel ads does not go nearly far enough.Peter Dietsch, Professor, Department of Philosophy, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180912024-03-10T13:10:22Z2024-03-10T13:10:22ZThe world is not moving fast enough on climate change — social sciences can help explain why<p>In late 2023 the United States government released <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">its Fifth National Climate Assessment</a> (NCA). The NCA is a semi-regular summation of the impacts of climate change upon the U.S. and the fifth assessment was notable for being the first to include <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/20/">a chapter on social systems and justice</a>. </p>
<p>Built on decades of social science research on climate change, the fifth NCA contends with two truths that are increasingly being reckoned with in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/climate/biden-environmental-justice.html">U.S. popular</a> and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1816020116">academic conversations</a>. </p>
<p>The first is that climate change has the potential to exacerbate health, social and economic outcomes for Black, Indigenous, people of colour (BIPOC) and low-income communities. The second is that social systems and institutions — including governmental, cultural, spiritual and economic structures — are the only places where adaptation and mitigation can occur.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-is-not-just-heat-waves-climate-change-is-also-a-crisis-of-disconnection-210594">It is not just heat waves — climate change is also a crisis of disconnection</a>
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<p>We only have to compare <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-06081-w">mortality rates for the COVID-19 pandemic disaggregated by race, income, and other axes of inequality</a> to recognize that we are not all in the same boat, despite experiencing the same storm. Today, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/sou120">race</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087403253053">income</a> similarly predict who is likely to be displaced permanently after a major hurricane — and forced relocation can have negative impacts on individuals and communities for generations. </p>
<p>Understanding how existing social systems influence, and are influenced by, climate change is key to not only slowing the effects of an increasingly warming Earth, but also ensuring that society’s transition to a new world is a <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-030-89460-3.pdf">just one</a>. </p>
<p>And there is no doubt that we are indeed facing a new world.</p>
<h2>Not moving fast enough</h2>
<p>Decades of scientific research have shown that <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/all-figures">increasingly devastating and rapid climatic changes</a> are ahead of us, including more intense hurricanes, droughts and floods. </p>
<p>Our recent levels of resource consumption — particularly in the Global North and countries with large developing economies — <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262681612/a-climate-of-injustice/">are untenable</a>. To be clear, the world <em>is</em> responding to these risks with the U.S. alone achieving a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-04/documents/us-ghg-inventory-1990-2019-data-highlights.pdf">13 percent decrease in annual greenhouse gas emissions between 2005 and 2019</a>, but these responses are not good enough.</p>
<p>It is the purview of social scientists — the scientists tasked with studying human society and social relationships in all of their complexity — to ask why.</p>
<p>What is it about the ethics, cultures, economies, and symbols at play in the world that have made it so difficult to turn the tide and make change? Why do we — individuals, societies, cultures, and nations — mostly seem unable to curb emissions at the rates necessary to save ourselves and our planet?</p>
<p>These are questions that can only partially be answered by new information and technologies developed by physical scientists and engineers. We also need an understanding of how humans behave. Having new technology matters for little if you do not also understand how social, economic and political decisions are made — and how certain groups are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1818859116">able to develop habits around lower rates of emissions and consumption</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/telling-stories-of-our-climate-futures-is-essential-to-thinking-through-the-net-zero-choices-of-today-210326">Telling stories of our climate futures is essential to thinking through the net-zero choices of today</a>
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<p>We know that inequitable systems create <a href="http://thinkpunkgirl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Lee_2021.pdf">unevenly distributed risk</a> and capacities to respond. For example, a hurricane’s intensity scale is less predictive of its mortality rates than the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27572097/">socio-economic conditions within the nation where the storm makes landfall</a>. Understanding these dynamics is the only way to respond to climate change in a way that does not entrench deep tendencies towards racist, sexist and classist landscapes of vulnerability. </p>
<h2>Empowering real change</h2>
<p>Recognizing that disasters and climate disruptions have the potential to make inequality worse also means that we have the opportunity to do better. </p>
<p>There are a range of outcomes that may stem from climate related disasters with a vast inventory of what is possible. There are also hopeful examples that point the way to rich collaborations and problem solving. For example, <a href="https://www.cityoftulsa.org/government/departments/engineering-services/flood-control/flooding-history/">Tulsa, Okla.</a> was the most frequently flooded city in the U.S. from the 1960s into the 1980s, but a coalition of concerned citizens came together with the city government to create a floodplain management plan that serves as <a href="https://kresge.org/resource/climate-adaptation-the-state-of-practice-in-u-s-communities/">a model</a> for other cities. </p>
<p>In another example, Indigenous communities around the U.S. have some of the most <a href="https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH16">proactive planning</a> in place for adapting to climate change, despite histories of persecution, theft and violent exploitation.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on Indigenous-led bison conservations in the U.S., produced by the Associated Press.</span></figcaption>
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<p>There is an adage that says in order to go quickly, go alone; if you want to go far, go together. Make no mistake, climate change is the most urgent issue of our time. However, moving quickly and carelessly will serve only to re-entrench existing social, economic, political and environmental inequalities. </p>
<p>Instead, we must look at other ways of being in the world. We can repair and recreate our relationships with the Earth and the consumption that has gotten us to this point. We can <a href="https://theconversation.com/respect-for-indigenous-knowledge-must-lead-nature-conservation-efforts-in-canada-156273">pay attention and listen to global Indigenous peoples and others who have cared for this earth for millennia</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-change-theatre-and-performances-reveal-new-narratives-about-how-we-need-to-live-219366">COP28: Climate change theatre and performances reveal new narratives about how we need to live</a>
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<p>We must be more creative with our solutions and committed to ensuring that all, and not just a privileged few, are able to live in a better world than the one in which they were born into. Technological approaches alone will not achieve this goal. To build a better world we need the social sciences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change is often seen as solely a technical problem. This is a misguided belief. Understanding how to build a better world begins, and ends, with understanding the societies which inhabit it.Fayola Helen Jacobs, Assistant Professor of urban planning, University of MinnesotaCandis Callison, Associate professor, School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, and Institute for Critical Indigenous Studies, University of British ColumbiaElizabeth Marino, Associate Professor of Anthropology, Oregon State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252842024-03-08T04:05:42Z2024-03-08T04:05:42ZThe Gomeroi win puts native title holders in a stronger position to fight fossil fuel projects on their land<p>In a significant <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/case.php?CaseID=898&browseChron=1">win for the Gomeroi People</a>, the Federal Court has ruled climate change impacts must be properly considered when determining whether a fossil fuel project can go ahead on native title land. </p>
<p>This is the latest in a series of disputes involving First Nations people fighting to prevent coal, oil and gas projects on their land. It’s part of the growing trend of First Nations people spearheading climate litigation. For example, cases involving <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/case.php?CaseID=976&keyWord=first%20nations">Raelene Cooper</a>, <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/case.php?CaseID=884&keyWord=first%20nations">Dennis Tipakalippa</a>, and <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/case.php?CaseID=693&keyWord=first%20nations">Pabai Pabai</a>. </p>
<p>This week’s legal decision is the first of its kind because the Court ruled climate change must be part of the public interest test before the National Native Title Tribunal can allow a project to proceed on native title land.</p>
<p>The decision puts native title holders in a stronger position when fighting to prevent future fossil fuel projects. There’s no guarantee of success, but it’s clear climate impacts can no longer be dismissed.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Gomeroi Traditional Owners speak about their fears for the Pilliga in “Walk With Us”</span></figcaption>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-should-use-australias-environment-laws-to-protect-our-living-wonders-from-new-coal-and-gas-projects-214211">We should use Australia's environment laws to protect our 'living wonders' from new coal and gas projects</a>
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<h2>An uphill battle for Traditional Owners</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/case.php?CaseID=898&browseChron=1">win for the Gomeroi People</a> was about a dispute relating to native title approvals made by the National Native Title Tribunal in 2022. This gave the Australian oil and gas company <a href="https://www.santos.com/">Santos</a> permission to proceed with <a href="https://narrabrigasproject.com.au/about/narrabri-gas-project/">plans to extract gas</a> from forest and farmland around Narrabri, in northern New South Wales. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/projects/narrabri-gas">Up to 850 gas wells</a> would be drilled over 20 years to extract coal seam gas. The wells and infrastructure, including gas processing and water treatment facilities, would be located within <a href="https://narrabrigasproject.com.au/about/narrabri-gas-project/">1,000 hectares of the 95,000ha project area</a>. </p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/cth/consol_act/nta1993147/">Native Title Act</a> companies like Santos are required to negotiate with the land’s Traditional Owners for at least six months with a view to reaching an agreement. </p>
<p>But an obligation to negotiate does not mean there is an obligation to reach an agreement. Traditional Owners cannot veto the project. And even without an agreement the company can apply to the tribunal to grant native title approvals. </p>
<p>Companies know they are likely to win once they get to the tribunal. The tribunal has only ever sided with native title holders trying to prevent resource extraction project on their Country <a href="http://www.nntt.gov.au/searchRegApps/FutureActs/Pages/default.aspx">three times</a>, most recently back in 2011. In comparison, it has sided with the developer <a href="http://www.nntt.gov.au/searchRegApps/FutureActs/Pages/default.aspx">149 times</a>.</p>
<p>The tribunal must look at a range of factors when reaching its decision. This includes the public interest. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://gomeroingaarr.org/">Gomeroi People</a> argued greenhouse gas emissions from the Santos project would cause unacceptable damage to their Country, and also contribute to global climate change, and therefore the project was not in the public interest. </p>
<p>They enlisted an expert witness, the late and highly respected <a href="https://theconversation.com/weve-lost-a-giant-vale-professor-will-steffen-climate-science-pioneer-198873">climate scientist Professor Will Steffen</a>, who told the tribunal in 2021 that the project was expected to result in between 109.75 million and 120.55 million tonnes of extra carbon dioxide (or equivalent) into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>The continued expansion of the fossil fuel industry, <a href="https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/full/2024/2024fcafc0026">Steffen said</a>, would result in the Narrabri region experiencing “more extreme heat, further and more intense droughts, harsher fire danger weather, and heavier rainfall when it occurs, all of which will continue to increase in frequency and intensity”.</p>
<p>The tribunal’s then president, John Dowsett, concluded that while he accepted greenhouse gas emissions were warming the planet, it was not in his remit to consider climate change when looking at the public interest. Rather, he said, he had to consider factors such as whether the project was of “economic significance to Australia, the State and the region, as well as Aboriginal people”.</p>
<p>He ruled that it was, and also opined that Steffen should have been more deferential to the NSW Independent Planning Commission’s views that the project would have an acceptable impact on climate. Steffen was just “one scientist”, Dowsett said, and it was “disturbing” that he should dismiss the authority’s view. </p>
<p>Dowsett even referenced the classic climate fallacy about there being two sides to the argument: “there are conflicting views concerning climate change and knowledge is rapidly expanding”.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/groundwater-the-natural-wonder-that-needs-protecting-from-coal-seam-gas-41978">Groundwater: the natural wonder that needs protecting from coal seam gas</a>
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<h2>A groundbreaking win</h2>
<p>The Federal Court was clearly not impressed, this week delivering the tribunal a judicial slap. The court said the definition of what was in the public interest was wide, and in this case, consideration of climate change impacts clearly fell within that definition. </p>
<p>In her <a href="https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/full/2024/2024fcafc0026">judgement</a>, Federal Court Chief Justice Debra Mortimer pointed out that Steffen was not just one scientist, but rather was on a panel of experts of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, representing the world’s leading climate scientists. </p>
<p>Gomeroi Traditional Owners <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2024-03-07/traditional-owners-appeal-santos-narrabri-gas-project-upheld/103557892">reacted to the decision</a> with <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/gomeroi-celebrate-win-against-gas-giant-santos-in-federal-court-appeal/x6r74u1gw">happiness, pride</a> and celebration. </p>
<p>Gomeroi Elder Maria (Polly) Cutmore released a statement saying: </p>
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<p>Santos now have to decide what they are going to do, we strongly encourage them to withdraw their operations from the Pilliga forest and our floodplains for good. That would respect our culture and law and Santos would be better off for it. </p>
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<p>Santos <a href="https://www.santos.com/news/federal-court-allows-appeal-against-native-title-future-act-decision-for-narrabri-gas-project/">responded to the case</a> by saying it has “at all times negotiated with the Gomeroi people in good faith”. </p>
<p>This is not the first time First Nations people have led the way in holding decision makers accountable for the climate consequences of their actions. Indeed, Australia has been a particularly active jurisdiction for climate litigation, the jurisdiction with the second-highest number of cases worldwide. The <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/index.php">Australian and Pacific Climate Litigation database</a> we run at the University of Melbourne records these cases. </p>
<p>We expect more of these disputes to arise in the future.</p>
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<h2>What comes next?</h2>
<p>For the Gomeroi People, the matter will likely be sent back to the tribunal with instructions to revisit the decision. This time, we hope, climate change will be forefront in the decision-making process. </p>
<p>The broader implications of this latest ruling are still unclear. It is conceivable the tribunal will reconsider the climate impacts and yet still arrive at the same conclusion. </p>
<p>Alternatively, this case could be the start of more significant engagement with climate issues in Australian courts, led by First Nations people.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebekkah Markey-Towler receives funding for a PhD at the Melbourne Law School from Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship and the British Institute of International and Comparative Law on corporate climate litigation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lily O'Neill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A first-of-its-kind legal decision puts native title holders in a stronger position when fighting fossil fuel projects. The Gomeroi people won their appeal against the Native Title Tribunal.Lily O'Neill, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneRebekkah Markey-Towler, PhD Candidate, Melbourne Law School, and Research fellow, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2244952024-03-05T21:19:45Z2024-03-05T21:19:45ZThe Anthropocene is not an epoch − but the age of humans is most definitely underway<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580004/original/file-20240305-26-j0m1i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C180%2C5727%2C3599&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Human influence on the climate started even before the Industrial Revolution.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/factoryscape-in-the-potteries-smoke-from-chimneys-in-the-news-photo/1036135896?adppopup=true">Print Collector/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When people talk about the “Anthropocene,” they typically picture the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-anthropocene-a-very-short-introduction-9780198792987?cc=us&lang=en&">vast impact human societies are having</a> on the planet, from <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/Media-Release-Global-Assessment">rapid declines in biodiversity</a> to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">increases in Earth’s temperature</a> by burning fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Such massive planetary changes did not begin all at once at any single place or time.</p>
<p>That’s why <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-the-anthropocene-start-in-1950-or-much-earlier-heres-why-debate-over-our-world-changing-impact-matters-209869">it was controversial</a> when, after over a decade of study and debate, an international committee of scientists – <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/anthropocene/">the Anthropocene Working Group</a> – proposed to mark the Anthropocene as an epoch in the <a href="https://stratigraphy.org/chart#latest-version">geologic time scale</a> starting precisely in 1952. The marker was radioactive fallout from hydrogen bomb tests.</p>
<p>On March 4, 2024, the commission responsible for recognizing time units within our most recent period of geologic time – the <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/">Subcommission on Quarternary Stratigraphy</a> – rejected that proposal, with 12 of 18 members voting no. These are the scientists most expert at reconstructing Earth’s history from the evidence in rocks. They determined that adding an Anthropocene Epoch – and terminating the Holocene Epoch – was not supported by the standards used to define epochs.</p>
<p>To be clear, this vote has no bearing on the overwhelming evidence that human societies are indeed transforming this planet.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://ges.umbc.edu/ellis/">an ecologist who studies global change</a>, I served on the <a href="http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/anthropocene/">Anthropocene Working Group</a> from its start in 2009 until 2023. <a href="https://anthroecology.org/why-i-resigned-from-the-anthropocene-working-group/">I resigned</a> because I was convinced that this proposal defined the Anthropocene so narrowly that it would damage broader scientific and public understanding. </p>
<p>By tying the start of the human age to such a recent and devastating event – nuclear fallout – this proposal risked sowing confusion about the deep history of how humans are transforming the Earth, from climate change and biodiversity losses to pollution by plastics and tropical deforestation.</p>
<h2>The original idea of the Anthropocene</h2>
<p>In the years since the term Anthropocene was coined by Nobel Prize-winning <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/15445/2023/">atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen</a> in 2000, it has increasingly defined our times as an age of human-caused planetary transformation, from climate change to biodiversity loss, plastic pollution, megafires and much more.</p>
<p>Crutzen originally proposed that the Anthropocene began in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/415023a">latter part of the 18th century</a>, as a product of the Industrial age. He also noted that setting a more precise start date would be “<a href="https://www.mpic.de/3865097/the-anthropocene">arbitrary</a>.” </p>
<p>According to geologists, we humans have been living in the Holocene Epoch for about 11,700 years, since the end of the last ice age. </p>
<p>Human societies began influencing Earth’s biodiversity and climate through agriculture <a href="https://cligs.vt.edu/blog/climate-change--a-new-twist-on-a-very-old-story.html">thousands of years ago</a>. These changes began to accelerate about five centuries ago with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthropocene-began-with-species-exchange-between-old-and-new-worlds-38674">colonial collision of the old and new worlds</a>. And, as Crutzen noted, Earth’s climate really began to change with the increasing use of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/history-of-Europe/The-Industrial-Revolution">fossil fuels in the Industrial Revolution</a> that began in the late 1700s.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579988/original/file-20240305-20-6j3yag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A chart reflecting timing of the ‘Anthropocene Event’ shows how various human activities have affected the planet over mlllennia in the recent geologic time scale. Click the image to enlarge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3416">Philip Gibbard, et al., 2022</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Anthropocene as an epoch</h2>
<p>The rationale for proposing to define an Anthropocene Epoch starting around 1950 came from overwhelming evidence that many of the most consequential changes of the human age shifted upward dramatically about that time in a so-called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019614564785">Great Acceleration” identified by climate scientist Will Steffen</a> and others. </p>
<p>Radioisotopes like plutonium from hydrogen bomb tests conducted around this time left clear traces in soils, sediments, trees, corals and other potential geological records across the planet. The plutonium peak in the sediments of Crawford Lake in Ontario, Canada – <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-the-anthropocene-start-in-1950-or-much-earlier-heres-why-debate-over-our-world-changing-impact-matters-209869">chosen as the “golden spike</a>” for determining the start of the Anthropocene Epoch – is well marked in the lake bed’s exceptionally clear sediment record. </p>
<h2>The Anthropocene Epoch is dead; long live the Anthropocene</h2>
<p>So why was the Anthropocene Epoch rejected? And what happens now?</p>
<p>The proposal to add an Anthropocene Epoch to the geological time scale was rejected for a variety of reasons, none of them related to the fact that human societies are changing this planet. In fact, the opposite is true. </p>
<p>If there is one main reason why geologists rejected this proposal, it is because its recent date and shallow depth are too narrow to encompass the deeper evidence of human-caused planetary change. As geologist <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa7297">Bill Ruddiman and others wrote in Science Magazine in 2015</a>, “Does it really make sense to define the start of a human-dominated era millennia after most forests in arable regions had been cut for agriculture?”</p>
<p>Discussions of an Anthropocene Epoch aren’t over yet. But it is very unlikely that there will be an official Anthropocene Epoch declaration anytime soon.</p>
<p>The lack of a formal definition of an Anthropocene Epoch will not be a problem for science. </p>
<p>A scientific definition of the Anthropocene is already widely available in the form of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3416">the Anthropocene Event</a>, which basically defines Anthropocene <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104340">in simple geological terms</a> as “a complex, transformative, and ongoing event analogous to the Great Oxidation Event and others in the geological record.”</p>
<p>So, despite the “no” vote on the Anthropocene Epoch, the Anthropocene will continue to be as useful as it has been for more than 20 years in stimulating discussions and research into the nature of human transformation of this planet. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated to clarify that a new attempt at an official Anthropocene Epoch declaration is unlikely soon.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erle C. Ellis is a former member of the Anthropocene Working Group of the International Commission on Stratigraphy. He is a member of the American Association of Geographers.</span></em></p>Scientists have been debating the start of the Anthropocene Epoch for 15 years. I was part of those discussions, and I agree with the vote rejecting it.Erle C. Ellis, Professor of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2240932024-02-22T19:00:50Z2024-02-22T19:00:50ZSide-effects of expanding forests could limit their potential to tackle climate change – new study<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577038/original/file-20240221-18-mbvixi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The complex effects of planting more trees need to be taken into consideration. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-shot-above-forest-spring-season-1720654045">Mikai/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tackling climate change by planting trees has an intuitive appeal. They absorb the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from the atmosphere without using expensive technology. </p>
<p>The suggestion that you can plant trees to offset your carbon emissions is <a href="https://onetreeplanted.org/blogs/stories/planting-trees-offsets-carbon">widespread</a>. Many businesses, from those selling <a href="https://eu.etnies.com/pages/buy-a-shoe-plant-a-tree">shoes</a> to <a href="https://saplingspirits.com/pages/climate-positive">booze</a>, now offer to plant a tree with each purchase, and more than 60 countries have signed up to the <a href="https://www.bonnchallenge.org">Bonn Challenge</a>, which aims to restore degraded and deforested landscapes. </p>
<p>However, expanding tree cover could affect the climate in complex ways. Using models of the Earth’s atmosphere, land and oceans, we have simulated widescale future forestation. Our <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adg6196">new study</a> shows that this increases atmospheric carbon dioxide removal, beneficial for tackling climate change. But side-effects, including changes to other greenhouse gases and the reflectivity of the land surface, may partially oppose this.</p>
<p>Our findings suggest that while forestation – the restoration and expansion of forests – can play a role in tackling climate change, its potential may be smaller than previously thought.</p>
<p>When forestation occurs alongside other climate change mitigation strategies, such as reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, the negative side-effects have a smaller impact. So, forestation will be more effective as part of wider efforts to pursue sustainable development. Trees can help fight climate change, but relying on them alone won’t be enough.</p>
<h2>What does the future hold?</h2>
<p>Future climate projections suggest that to keep warming below the Paris Agreement 2°C target, greenhouse gas emissions must reach <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-the-new-ipcc-report-says-about-how-to-limit-warming-to-1-5c-or-2c/">net-zero by the mid-to-late 21st century</a>, and become net negative thereafter. As some industries, such as aviation and shipping, will be exceedingly difficult to decarbonise fully, carbon removal will be needed. </p>
<p>Forestation is a <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/un-scales-up-climate-action-to-protect-forests">widely proposed strategy</a> for carbon removal. If deployed sustainably – by planting mixtures of native trees rather than monocultures, for instance – forestation can provide other benefits including <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0405-0">protecting biodiversity</a>, reducing soil erosion, and improving flood protection.</p>
<p>We considered an “extensive forestation” strategy which expands existing forests over the course of the 21st century in line with current proposals, adding trees where they are expected to thrive while avoiding croplands. </p>
<p>In our models, we paired this strategy with two future climate scenarios – a “minimal effort” scenario with average global warming exceeding 4°C, and a “Paris-compatible” scenario with extensive climate mitigation efforts. We could then compare the extensive forestation outcome to simulations with the same climate but where levels of forestation followed more expected trends: the minimal effort scenario sees forest cover drop as agriculture expands, and the Paris-compatible scenario features modest increases in global forest cover. </p>
<h2>Up in the air</h2>
<p>The Earth’s energy balance depends on the energy coming in from the Sun and the energy escaping back out to space. Increasing forest cover changes the Earth’s overall energy balance. Generally, changes that <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/90/3/2008bams2634_1.xml">decrease outgoing radiation cause warming</a>. The greenhouse effect works this way, as outgoing radiation is trapped by gases in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Forestation’s ability to lower atmospheric CO₂, and therefore increase the radiation escaping to space, has been <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1710465114">well studied</a>. However, the amount of carbon that could feasibly be removed remains a <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaz0111?intcmp=trendmd-sci">subject of debate</a>. </p>
<p>Forestation generally reduces land surface reflectivity (<a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abm9684?casa_token=g8hQeCQFj38AAAAA%3A-w0gwkq7kRepSJwCuW_2iqiFqh7ACXwgb4s-9kA35UgF950MUxAiwmnhbInVZWkJg_YEye1IM47ibPo">albedo</a>) as darker trees replace lighter grassland. Decreases in albedo levels oppose the beneficial reduction of atmospheric CO₂, as less radiation escapes back to space. This is particularly important <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/35041545">at higher latitudes</a>, where trees cover land that would otherwise be covered with snow. Our scenario features forest expansion primarily in temperate and tropical regions. </p>
<p>Forests emit large quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), with these emissions increasing with rising temperatures. VOCs react chemically in the atmosphere, affecting the <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/1105/2021/">concentrations of methane and ozone</a>, which are also greenhouse gases. We find the enhanced VOC emissions from greater forest cover and temperatures increase levels of methane and, typically, ozone. This reduces the amount of radiation escaping to space, further opposing the removal of carbon.</p>
<p>However, the reaction products of VOCs can <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/14/447/2014/">contribute to aerosols</a>, which reflect incoming solar radiation and help form clouds. Increases in these aerosols with rising VOC emissions from greater forest cover result in more radiation escaping to space.</p>
<p>We find the net effect of changes to albedo, ozone, methane and aerosol is to reduce the amount of radiation escaping to space, cancelling out part of the benefit of reducing atmospheric CO₂. In a future where climate mitigation is not a priority, up to 30% of the benefit is cancelled out, while in a Paris-compatible future, this drops to 15%. </p>
<h2>Cooler solutions</h2>
<p>Tackling climate change requires efforts from all sectors. While forestation will play a role, our work shows that its benefits may not be as great as previously thought. However, these negative side-effects aren’t as impactful if we pursue other strategies, especially reducing our greenhouse gas emissions, alongside forestation.</p>
<p>This study hasn’t considered local temperature changes from forestation as a result of evaporative cooling, or the impact of changes to atmospheric composition caused by changes in the frequencies and severities of wildfires. Further work in these areas will complement our research. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, our study suggests that forestation alone is unlikely to fix our warming planet. We need to rapidly reduce our emissions while enhancing the ability of the natural world to store carbon. It is important to stress-test climate mitigation strategies in detail, because so many complex systems are at play. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Weber receives funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James A. King sits on an advisory panel for Ecologi. He receives funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). </span></em></p>Planting trees to remove carbon from the atmosphere will only be effective alongside other strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.James Weber, Lecturer in Atmospheric Radiation, Composition and Climate, University of ReadingJames A. King, Research Associate in Climate Change Mitigation, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223242024-02-20T14:33:23Z2024-02-20T14:33:23ZThe energy transition can be fair, just and inclusive – but the window of opportunity is closing fast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575618/original/file-20240214-30-56k621.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The global energy transition needs to be just and fair to all, but the chance of that happening is getting slim, says a new report by 22 international researchers. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/exterior-green-sustainable-building-covered-blooming-2231721581">Martin Bergsma/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A move away from fossil fuels to renewables is urgently required, according to experts at the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>. Yet building, operating, and maintaining a low-carbon energy system requires big energy investments. Those investments reduce the net energy available to society, and yield complex socio-economic implications. </p>
<p>As part of a team of 22 international authors, I unpack these knock-on effects in a paper recently published by the <a href="https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2023/ee/d3ee00772c/unauth">Royal Society of Chemistry</a>. Together, we call for a greater account of net energy to better shape just transition pathways that prioritise people and communities in all parts of the globe.</p>
<h2>Understanding net energy</h2>
<p>The production and exchange of goods and services are made possible by several ingredients. A major one is energy. Net energy is that which is supplied to society minus the energy invested in extracting, processing, and delivering it.</p>
<p>Net energy is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33976-5">expected to decline</a> – perhaps only temporarily. That’s because a rapid, large-scale deployment of renewables and associated infrastructure requires a lot of energy. It is also due to the fact that supplies of fossil fuels deplete and demand more energy for their extraction. </p>
<p>The net energy approach reveals a window of opportunity for a global inclusive transition, bounded by two limits (see below). At the upper limit, the transition cannot be too rapid, as society needs enough net energy to function without too much disruption. The lower limit is dictated by the minimum speed required to meet ambitious climate targets.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/cop28-a-chance-to-course-correct-on-the-global-clean-energy-transition/">As the transition lags</a>, these limits move closer to each other, shrinking the window of opportunity for an inclusive global transition. The upper one is expected to contract over time due to geological depletion of fossil fuels, and as rapid low-carbon investment consumes a higher proportion of energy. The lower limit will become more pressing because the longer the transition takes, the less chance there is of <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2023/explained-climate-benchmark-rising-temperatures-0827">meeting ambitious climate targets</a>.</p>
<h2>Huge risks for developing countries</h2>
<p>Every country that delays action risks compromising its ability to transition to low-carbon energy sources, while maintaining or achieving high levels of wellbeing. Competition for energy and material resources necessary for the transition may be exacerbated, especially for developing countries which are already at a clear disadvantage. </p>
<p>As more developed countries are likely to make their transition first, developing countries may risk getting slowed down – or even trapped – in their progress towards modern low-carbon energy. This situation further raises equity questions as they are the lest responsible for, and most affected by, climate change.</p>
<p>Three actions could enhance the justice of the transition. First, developed countries should assume their responsibility for ecological breakdown and the excessive use of materials. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01130-8">Massive financial support</a> and technology transfers to developing countries are needed. Second, societies need to switch to more efficient ways of using energy (for example, from gasoline-powered to electric cars or bicycles). Third, unnecessary energy uses (such as the prolific use of private jets) needs to stop, especially for <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0579-8">certain socio-economic groups</a> mostly within developed countries, to ensure there is sufficient energy for everybody. </p>
<p>Research furthermore suggests that a decent quality of life can be sustained with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307512">much lower levels of energy use</a> than currently observed in affluent nations. So embracing demand reduction in those countries not only aligns with climate goals but also fosters a more sustainable and equitable society.</p>
<h2>Modelling for a just transition</h2>
<p>Looking at net energy improves our understanding of how energy and economy interact. This comprehension is later used to produce transition scenarios thanks to mathematical models. Yet most of them tend to overlook net energy.</p>
<p>Reasons for this are various but, according to our collective, fall into three categories. First, most models lack proper representation of the energy and material flows of the goods and services provided. Second, most models still use economics theories where increases in energy costs cannot significantly affect GDP growth. Thus models not only downplay the contribution of energy in economic processes, but also set aside its interaction with money and the financial sector, which is largely unconsidered too. Third, the current framework of climate change scenarios nurtures a simplistic and technocratic vision of the economy. As such, little is assumed regarding interdependence among population, economic growth, and other parameters such as net energy.</p>
<p>To improve the consideration of net energy, we propose a series of six measures. Some concern the data used in the models, others the methodology and still others the scenarios. For instance, we support the exploration of new mitigation pathways limiting the reliance on carbon dioxide removal, and equitable low-growth and post-growth scenarios. We believe following the measures is further timely as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is currently discussing ways to produce more relevant knowledge <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-023-00058-1">for climate action</a>.</p>
<p>Our work underlines that the window of opportunity for an inclusive global transition is shrinking as we lag behind. Radical and decisive action is required to make the transition a just one. The sooner we act, the bigger the gains.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louis Delannoy received funding from the French National Institute for Research in Digital Science and Technology (INRIA), and the Erling-Persson Family Foundation through the Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere programme (GEDB) at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.</span></em></p>For the green transition to be fair and just to people and communities around the globe, countries must change the way energy is used and governed.Louis Delannoy, Postdoctoral researcher, Royal Swedish Academy of SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228182024-02-16T13:03:55Z2024-02-16T13:03:55ZExtraction of raw materials could rise 60% by 2060 – and making mining ‘greener’ won’t stop the damage<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575311/original/file-20240213-16-g7d1en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Extractive mining is predicted to increase drastically by 2060</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industry-banner-open-pit-mine-extractive-2235404905">Parilov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United Nations’ flagship <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/31/raw-materials-extraction-2060-un-report">Global Resources Outlook</a> report is the portrait of a juggernaut. Due to be published later this month by the UN’s International Resource Panel, <a href="https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/coming-soon-global-resources-outlook-2024">it highlights</a> how global consumption of raw materials, having increased four-fold since 1970, is set to rise by a further 60% by 2060. </p>
<p>Already, the <a href="https://courier.unesco.org/en/articles/unbearable-burden-technosphere">technosphere</a> — the totality of human-made products, from airports to Zimmer frames — is heavier than <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-3010-5">the biosphere</a>. From the 2020s onward, the weight of humanity’s extended body — the concrete shells that keep us sheltered, the metal wings that fly us around — have exceeded that of all life on Earth. Producing this volume of stuff is a major contributor to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn">global heating</a> and ocean acidification, and the rapidly accelerating extinction of plants and animals.</p>
<p>As the UN report spells out, the extractive activities that lie behind the concrete, metal and other materials we use are disrupting the balance of the planet’s ecosystems. The mining industry requires the annexation of large tracts of land for extraction and transportation; its energy consumption has <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001115">more than tripled</a> since the 1970s. </p>
<p>That upward curve is set to continue. The demand for materials is rising, the quality of ores such <a href="https://steadystate.org/two-cheers-for-circularity/">as copper</a> is declining, and deeper and more remote mines <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/green-growth-9781783604876/">require extra energy for extraction</a>. More seams will be dug and more mountains moved to bring glittering fortunes to some while many regions, above all in developing countries, become <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/environmental-humanities/article/15/1/3/343379/Sacrifice-ZonesA-Genealogy-and-Analysis-of-an">sacrifice zones</a>.</p>
<h2>Critical raw materials</h2>
<p>Attention is increasingly focused on a particular class of material. “Critical” and “strategic” raw materials are those that face supply risk either in their scarcity or their geographical concentration, and which the major powers require for their military sectors and for competitive advantage in tech industries. Right now, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/04/europe-miles-behind-race-raw-materials-electric-car-batteries-lithium-cobalt-nickel">race for critical materials</a> is geopolitical: each major power wants to secure supplies in allied countries.</p>
<p>Critical raw materials are indispensable to the green transition too. The EU, for example, deems nickel a <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2011:0025:FIN:en:PDF">strategic</a> material in view of its role in batteries. </p>
<p>A wind turbine can require <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/24d5dfbb-a77a-4647-abcc-667867207f74/TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.pdf">nine times</a> the mineral inputs of a typical gas-fired power plant, while the average electric vehicle contains between <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/24d5dfbb-a77a-4647-abcc-667867207f74/TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.pdf">six</a> and ten times those of its conventional counterpart, according to the UN report that is due to be published on February 26. </p>
<p>None of this means that a green economy would use greater quantities of materials than the current fossil fuel-based one. Energy consumption due to mineral demand for energy transition technologies is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001115">dwarfed by</a> that which arises from mineral demand for the rest of the economy. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the mineral demand of the energy transition stokes the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/net-zero-will-mean-a-mining-boom-electric-cars-minerals-oil-fossil-fuels-climate-change-policy-cb8d5137">mining boom</a> in such sectors as copper and lithium.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Back of man in orange hi-vis jacket and white hard hard looking across to copper mine, brown roads and pits, grey sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575312/original/file-20240213-28-y0xzr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The need for critical raw materials, such as copper, is rising, but mining must develop more sustainable practices.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/copper-mine-worker-open-pit-surveying-2299216889">Einstock/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Urban mining</h2>
<p>Mining must change in order to reduce its environmental impact. On the supply side, recovering minerals from waste goods can be ramped up, for instance by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/28/retailers-to-pay-for-consumers-e-waste-recycling-from-2026-under-uk-plans">forcing retailers to offer collections</a> of household electronic waste that can be sent for enhanced recycling. </p>
<p>There is scope for urban mining: for example, locating copper from <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344922006723">inactive underground power cables</a> or recovering elements from <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344922006723">construction waste</a>, sewage, incinerator ash and other garbage zones.</p>
<p>In practice, however, the use of secondary materials relative to newly-extracted ones is <a href="https://steadystate.org/two-cheers-for-circularity/">declining</a>. The recovery rates of minerals from recycling remain low. Another <a href="https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/recycling-rates-metals">UN study</a> of 60 metals found the recycling rate for most of them was below one percent. </p>
<p>The current economic system makes extractive mining cheaper and easier than urban mining. Extractive mining involves the purchase of cheap land, often in developing countries. </p>
<p>That land gets dug up, pulverised and processed in a simple flow that is amenable to capital-intensive operations. Urban mining by contrast is often labour-intensive and requires a complex and state-enforced <a href="http://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/urban-mining-reuse-recycle-old-goods-electronics-save-planet-climate-crisis/">regulation of waste streams</a>.</p>
<p>Urban mining suffers from the refusal of governments to shift taxation from labour to “the use of non-renewable resources”, as <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9780230288843">Walter Stahel</a>, an originator of the circular economy concept, recommended in 2006. Until robust regulation and taxation is introduced, all forms of circular economy risk unleashing <a href="https://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/news-and-resources/circular-economy-isnt-enough-we-need-system-change">rebound effects</a>. </p>
<p>So, throwing more materials onto the market lowers prices, which tends to expedite economic growth, raise energy consumption, and proliferate environmental harms. In short, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12545">there is nothing intrinsically “green”</a> about urban mining or the circular economy. The progressive potential of all such engineering programmes is governed by the political-economic framework.</p>
<h2>Is degrowth the answer?</h2>
<p>The insufficiency of engineering and <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/green-growth-9781783604876/">green growth</a> programmes has informed the waxing interest in “degrowth” strategies. This term is not intended to suggest that all economic sectors should shrink, but that for society-nature relations to regain some balance, the unsustainable global use of materials and energy must radically reduce, and in an egalitarian manner. </p>
<p>As the scale of the environmental crisis grows more daunting, even moderate voices — not degrowthers — have recognised that certain sectors, such as shipping and aviation, will have to be <a href="http://www.eng.cam.ac.uk/news/absolute-zero">cut to virtually zero</a> over the next 20 or 30 years.</p>
<p>What does this mean for critical minerals? According to degrowth advocate <a href="https://www.jasonhickel.org/blog/2023/12/21/accelerationist-possibilities-in-an-ecosocialist-degrowth-scenario">Jason Hickel</a>, political means should be forged through which to plan priority sectors.</p>
<p>Reducing luxury and wasteful sectors such as SUVs, aviation and fast fashion would free up critical materials for the green transition. “Factories that produce SUVs could produce solar panels instead,” suggests Hickel. “Engineers who are presently developing private jets could work on innovating more efficient trains and wind turbines instead.”</p>
<p>Such practical examples highlight the possibility that today’s predictions of utterly unsustainable materials throughput by 2060 could at least be revised downward.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gareth Dale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Extractive mining disrupts the balance of the planet’s ecosystems and is set to rise. Could urban mining or degrowth help curb unsustainable practices?Gareth Dale, Reader in Political Economy, Brunel University LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229072024-02-09T17:47:58Z2024-02-09T17:47:58ZUS ‘pause’ on future liquefied gas exports throws doubt on fossil fuel’s place in energy transition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574415/original/file-20240208-16-ps6juy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C4002&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A storage tank for liquefied natural gas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/over-land-gas-pipeline-system-lng-2135816073">Audio und werbung/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the first cargo of American liquefied natural gas (LNG) left a terminal on the Gulf of Mexico bound for Brazil in February 2016, US exports of the fuel have boomed. In 2023 the US was both the world’s largest producer of natural gas and its largest exporter of LNG, with exports that year totalling <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-lng-export-boom-defining-national-interests">86 million tons</a>. </p>
<p>Natural gas (methane) is burned to generate heat and electricity. Cooling it to -162 degrees centigrade at an LNG plant turns it into a liquid that makes possible transport internationally using specialised ships, LNG carriers.</p>
<p>Pressure was <a href="https://www.merkley.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23.11.14-DOE-LNG-Letter.pdf">building</a> on the US president, Joe Biden, and his energy secretary, Jennifer Granholm, to review the legitimacy of <a href="https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2023/12/19/170-scientists-to-biden-reject-cp2-lng-terminal-and-all-new-fracked-gas-infrastructure/">new licenses for producing LNG</a> at the end of 2023. On January 26, Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-decision-to-pause-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports">announced</a> a temporary pause on approvals of pending LNG projects until a review could be completed.</p>
<p>The pause will allow the US Department of Energy to update the basis upon which it determines whether a particular LNG project is “in the national interest”. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-decision-to-pause-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports">The review</a> will consider the impact of LNG exports on energy costs for American consumers, the sufficiency of domestic supply and the environment, both locally and in terms of climate change.</p>
<p>Biden has not stopped exports from existing projects or construction work on future ones, whether or not they have the necessary approvals. It is only the Department of Energy’s approval process that is under review. The Department of Energy authorises exports to countries with which the US does not have a free trade agreement (FTA) and between February 2016 and November 2023, 80% of all US LNG exported by vessel went to <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/Natural%20Gas%20Imports%20and%20Exports%20Monthly%20November%202023.pdf">non-FTA counties</a>, among them China, Japan and all European importing countries. In 2023, Europe alone accounted for <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-update-public-interest-analysis-enhance-national-security-achieve-clean-energy-goals#:%7E:text=As">60% of US LNG exports</a>.</p>
<p>So, the “pause” will not stop a massive expansion in the capacity of the US to make and distribute LNG. Enough terminals are being built to add 70 million tons of LNG a year, bringing total annual capacity to <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-lng-export-boom-defining-national-interests">160 million tons by 2028</a>. The pause will at least affect the dozen or so terminals <a href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/what-next-for-us-lng-exports">yet to be decided on</a> (amounting to about 50 million tons a year). </p>
<p>It is unclear how long the pause on regulatory approvals will last, but an outcome is unlikely before November’s election. The spotlight on US LNG exports is at least a chance to question whether gas should have a place in the energy transition.</p>
<h2>Freedom LNG</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/press-releases/2024/01/frontline-national-organizations-respond-biden-administration-announcement">Environmental groups</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5c051556-6efd-4db3-9152-508d7e0de566">communities</a> living near LNG terminals (who are exposed to <a href="https://prismreports.org/2023/02/20/lng-climate-sacrifice-zones/">dangerous levels of pollution</a>) have welcomed Biden’s decision. </p>
<p>Republican politicians and the oil and gas industry have been <a href="https://www.cramer.senate.gov/news/press-releases/senators-warn-biden-administration-against-shortsighted-pause-of-lng-export-permits">less supportive</a>. One group of <a href="https://www.cramer.senate.gov/news/press-releases/senators-warn-biden-administration-against-shortsighted-pause-of-lng-export-permits">senators</a> argued a limit on US exports would not affect the world’s demand for natural gas, but was bad for the American economy and would cost jobs.</p>
<p>The US media meanwhile has <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2024/01/will-bidens-pause-of-big-gas-export-projects-win-back-young-voters/">portrayed</a> the pause as an attempt by the Biden administration to bolster its environmental credentials ahead of the election. Donald Trump, his likely opponent, vowed to “…approve the export terminals <a href="https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2024/01/29/trump-pledges-to-undo-bidens-lng-export-freeze-00138337">on [his] very first day back”</a>.</p>
<p>The Trump administration described US LNG exports as “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsmoor/2019/05/30/trump-administration-rebrands-carbon-dioxide-as-molecules-of-u-s-freedom/?sh=33e8e9cc3a24">molecules of freedom</a>” in 2019 that could reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas. This now seems prophetic. Exports of US LNG have played <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-01-27/europe-s-energy-security-at-risk-due-to-reliance-on-us-natural-gas-exports?sref=PF2RkEmW">a major role</a> in Europe’s pivot away from Russian pipeline gas since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. However, the US boom has also had a profound impact on the global LNG market. </p>
<p>The traditional LNG model tied producers and consumers into long-term contracts with destination clauses that constrained where LNG could be sold. In effect, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00130095.2017.1283212">a floating pipeline</a> connecting two countries. </p>
<p>Instead, US LNG is sold free on board, meaning buyers (other oil and gas companies, utility companies and traders) take ownership at the export terminal, arrange shipping and sell the LNG wherever they wish. Buyers of US LNG can send cargoes to both Europe and Asia, enabling arbitrage between these two markets, effectively globalising the trade. </p>
<p>Industry and energy thinktank <a href="https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/consequences-of-the-pause-for-us-lng/">analysis</a> suggests that the liquidity of the global LNG market will be untouched by the pause. It does not affect the coming expansion of US production, which is mirrored by a surge in Qatari output, and so by 2028 the global market may be <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/86a30758-229d-46d6-97cc-85ae62a6c6d7">oversupplied</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pink bank note with a gas tanker and port on it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574418/original/file-20240208-20-koku0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574418/original/file-20240208-20-koku0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574418/original/file-20240208-20-koku0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574418/original/file-20240208-20-koku0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574418/original/file-20240208-20-koku0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574418/original/file-20240208-20-koku0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574418/original/file-20240208-20-koku0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An LNG terminal on Qatar’s 500 Riyal note.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ras-laffan-lng-refinery-canter-ship-2105542937">Janusz Pienkowski/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>US LNG exports to Europe are secure for now, but Europe has pledged to significantly <a href="https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/eus-energy-security-drive-may-have-gone-too-far-%202024-01-11/?utm">reduce how much gas it burns</a>. And so, there is a lot of uncertainty around gas demand in the 2030s and beyond.</p>
<h2>Time to take our foot off the gas?</h2>
<p>The LNG industry argues that natural gas is a <a href="https://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/PPI-Climate-Case-Natural-Gas-Exports-Final.pdf">cleaner fuel than coal</a>, producing about half the emissions when burned to generate electricity. If countries meet future energy demand with gas instead of coal, emissions will fall. However, <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/is-lng-dirtier-than-coal-its-complicated/">other analyses</a> highlight the methane that leaks from pipelines and suggest that gas may actually be worse for the climate than coal.</p>
<p>Even if the industry were to address these so-called fugitive emissions, gas-fired power would still warm the planet and countries transitioning to natural gas now will be locked into using it for decades to come, remaining exposed to unexpected changes in its price.</p>
<p>The solution is to leapfrog from coal to renewables and avoid gas as a transition fuel. If this happens, the LNG industry could be building production capacity for which there is no market. Of course, industry analysts <a href="https://www.woodmac.com/news/the-edge/building-lngs-resilience-through-turbulent-times">predict</a> that demand will continue to grow.</p>
<p>The review may compel future export projects to clamp down on methane leaks or impose a ban on new projects, although that seems unlikely. Its outcome may simply be swept away by a new president. But as the world has promised to <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-five-major-outcomes-from-the-latest-un-climate-summit-219655">transition away from fossil fuels</a>, questioning the logic of expanding US LNG exports is a good place to start. </p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222907/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Bradshaw receives funding from the UK Energy System Research Programme and EPSRC in relation to his role as Co-Director for the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC). He also advises the government, thinktanks and companies on energy matters.</span></em></p>The US Department of Energy will review its process for approving new LNG projects.Michael Bradshaw, Professor of Global Energy, Warwick Business School, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2054902024-02-07T19:18:15Z2024-02-07T19:18:15ZThe Nationals want renewables to stay in the cities – but the clean energy grid doesn’t work like that<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573981/original/file-20240207-22-lz88mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=123%2C114%2C5762%2C3794&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/green-rigg-wind-turbines-18-turbine-2052020315">Dave Head/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The bush is full up – no room for more renewables, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/call-to-cancel-renewable-rollout-nationals-declare-bush-is-full-20240206-p5f2sf.html">according to</a> Nationals leader David Littleproud. Instead, renewables should be restricted to large solar arrays on commercial buildings in the cities. </p>
<p>The country-focused minor party presumably hopes to capitalise on rural scepticism of large scale renewable projects – especially <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/farmer-fury-australia-signals-tough-road-renewable-energy-2023-12-12/">angst around</a> new transmission lines. On the coast, there <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-29/offshore-wind-protest-paddle-out-illawarra-hunter/103036846">have been protests</a> against proposed offshore wind farms. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, fencing off renewables in the cities won’t work. As our <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0253">recent research</a> on onshore wind shows, intermittent energy sources such as wind can work very well to support a modern grid – as long as we locate wind farms in different places. This ensures we can keep the lights on even if it’s dead calm in some areas. </p>
<p>Of course, rooftop solar may well stack up for households and building owners. But we will need new renewable projects in spread-out locations. Banning renewables from the bush is no solution. What we can do is make sure we’re not duplicating wind farms. Each new wind farm should be in the best possible location. </p>
<h2>The best place to build a wind farm</h2>
<p>In 2001, <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp">renewables supplied</a> 8% of Australia’s energy. In 2023, they <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp">supplied almost 40%</a>. </p>
<p>The federal government’s ambitious goal is to supercharge this growth and get to <a href="https://www.globalaustralia.gov.au/industries/net-zero/wind-energy">82% by 2030</a>. That’s a meteoric rise, but it has to be. Climate change <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far#:%7E:text=It's%20official%3A%202023%20was%20the,a%20record%20low%20in%202023.">is accelerating</a>. </p>
<p>Decisions around where to build large renewable projects cannot be left solely to the market – or derailed by protest. </p>
<p>Renewable energy supply is variable by nature. Solar only works at daytime, hydro can be affected by drought or water shortages, and the wind doesn’t blow consistently. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-we-want-a-wind-farm-outside-our-window-what-australians-think-about-the-net-zero-transition-214712">Do we want a wind farm outside our window? What Australians think about the net zero transition</a>
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<p>That’s not a deal breaker. It just means you have to have a mix of technologies – and place utility-scale farms in different places. This minimises the need for expensive or resource-dependent energy storage such as pumped hydro and batteries. </p>
<p>At present, wind makes up around a third of <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp">Australia’s renewable supply</a> – about 11% of total electricity generation in the first quarter of 2023. </p>
<p>But wind blows, then stops. By itself, a wind farm can’t provide power at a consistent rate or in lockstep with demand. The power generated is at the whim of the weather and, in the longer term, climate. </p>
<p>To make wind power consistent, you have to build wind farms in different locations chosen for their unique local wind climate. </p>
<p>At present, Australia’s supply of wind farms is reasonably varied. But it could be better still. </p>
<p>We analysed over 40 years of climate data and found Australia’s currently operating wind farms could be producing around 50% more energy if they had been built in optimised locations. </p>
<p>If we had built this network of farms in an optimal way, we would have slashed how variable wind energy is. At present, the locations of current farms means year-to-year variability is around 40% higher than it could have been. </p>
<p>When we added all wind farms under construction or with planning approval, we found these inefficiencies persist. </p>
<h2>We have to get better at placing renewables</h2>
<p>Is this bad news? No. It means we can do better. And it means we can reduce the resistance emerging from some rural and regional residents, who feel their landscapes are being taken over to power far off cities. </p>
<p>Building renewable farms in sub-optimal locations is a burden on the environment, since many more farms have to be built to make up the slack, and can lead to increased energy prices for consumers. </p>
<p>Right now, the cost is masked by the fact that wind’s share in the energy market is small. But that will change. The net zero economy we are building will need wind, both onshore and, increasingly, offshore. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">A clean energy grid means 10,000km of new transmission lines. They can only be built with community backing</a>
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<p>To build a wind farm, what usually happens is an energy company will find a landowner who agrees to having a farm on their land in exchange for regular rent. The company then <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/advocacy-initiatives/community-engagement/wind-best-practice-implementation-guidelines.pdf">seeks government approvals</a>. </p>
<p>To approve a site for a wind farm, government agencies have to assess many things. How close is it to wetlands home to rare birds? Is the wind resource good enough? To figure out the quality of the wind, regulators usually take measurements at the site and look at historic data. Usually, this pool of data only goes back a few years.</p>
<p>We could do this much better. First, wind power can vary by up to 16%, year to year. La Niña might bring strong winds to a site, while El Niño might bring the doldrums. </p>
<p>To decide on a site based on a couple of years of data means you don’t know the long term average of wind, which could be better or worse than expected. </p>
<p>Second, approvals are site-specific – we don’t compare how similar this potential wind farm will be to farms already built. That means many wind farms simply don’t meet expectations of how much extra power they can supply to the grid. </p>
<p>Once built, wind farms usually operate <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/wind-energy/essentials/">for decades</a>. If we choose inefficient locations, we’re locked in. </p>
<p>But there’s good news here for the National Party, rural residents and everyone concerned with the energy transition. We can fix this problem. </p>
<p>All it would take is one extra step for renewable developers: demonstrate how your proposed wind farm would improve electricity supply overall. That’s it. </p>
<p>And for government, make sure our planned new transmission lines increase access to high quality wind resources. </p>
<p>These two actions sound simple, but they would make a real difference. We could avoid building wind farms in sub-optimal locations, build fewer overall, and accelerate the shift to cheap clean energy. That’s something the city and country can agree on. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205490/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Jakob receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and is the Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Gunn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s grumbling in the bush about hosting big new renewable projects to power cities. We can do this smarter.Andrew Gunn, Lecturer, Monash UniversityChristian Jakob, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225612024-02-07T13:11:48Z2024-02-07T13:11:48ZBiden’s ‘hard look’ at liquefied natural gas exports raises a critical question: How does natural gas fit with US climate goals?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573502/original/file-20240205-30-63bf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3784%2C2623&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A heat exchanger and transfer pipes at Dominion Energy's Cove Point LNG Terminal in Lusby, Md.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChesapeakeBayLNGExports/60c6ff33c115496fb821bf89276bd5e9/photo">AP Photo/Cliff Owen</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Biden administration has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">frozen pending decisions</a> on permit applications to export liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to countries other than <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/trade/priority-issues/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements">U.S. free trade partners</a>. During this pause, which will last for up to 15 months, the administration has pledged to take a “hard look” at economic, environmental and national security issues associated with exporting LNG.</em> </p>
<p><em>Environmental advocates, who have expressed alarm over the rapid growth of U.S. LNG exports and their effects on Earth’s climate, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-pauses-approval-new-lng-export-projects-win-climate-activists-2024-01-26/">praised this step</a>. Critics, including energy companies and members of Congress, argue that it threatens <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/europe-faces-the-chill-as-biden-freezes-new-lng-export-permits">European energy security</a> and <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/cornyn-freezing-lng-exports-threatens-texas-jobs-18645141.php">energy jobs in the U.S.</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3RI02dcAAAAJ&hl=en">Emily Grubert</a>, associate professor of sustainable energy policy at the University of Notre Dame and a former official at the U.S. Department of Energy, explains why large-scale LNG exports raise complex questions for U.S. policymakers.</em></p>
<h2>Is the US a major LNG supplier?</h2>
<p>The U.S. is now <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60582">the world’s largest LNG exporter</a>. In November 2023, the most recent month with full data, the U.S. exported <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_m.htm">about 390 billion cubic feet</a> of LNG, a record high. </p>
<p>The U.S. has been a net exporter since 2017, with export volumes now equal to about 15% of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm">our domestic consumption</a>. This gas sells for higher prices than natural gas delivered domestically, but it also costs more to process and deliver. As of 2022, the U.S. <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_a.htm">provided 20%</a> of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57000">total global LNG exports</a>.</p>
<iframe title="The US is the world's top supplier of liquefied natural gas" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-ftIk0" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ftIk0/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="500" data-external="1"></iframe>
<h2>Are there plans for exporting even more LNG?</h2>
<p>The U.S. Energy Administration projects that North American LNG export capacity – largely from the U.S. – is likely to <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60944">more than double</a> from its current level by the end of 2027. In the U.S., five LNG export terminals are currently under construction, and are not affected by the current pause. </p>
<p>Applications for <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/media/us-lng-export-terminals-existing-approved-not-yet-built-and-proposed">additional export terminals</a> are under review. These are the applications for which decisions have been <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">temporarily paused</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing nine proposed new LNG plants in coastal Texas and Louisiana." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Proposed North American LNG export terminals as of July 5, 2022. Except for terminals in Alaska, Maryland and Georgia, most U.S. LNG infrastructure is already concentrated along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-10/7.%20LNG%20Maps%207-5-2022%20-%20Exports_ds.pdf">U.S. Department of Energy</a></span>
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<h2>How does LNG fit into a transition away from fossil fuel?</h2>
<p>LNG, and natural gas in general, has an uneasy place in the decarbonization transition. Natural gas is a fossil fuel. Burning it produces carbon dioxide that <a href="https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php">contributes to climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, natural gas that has been processed for use is essentially pure methane, which is itself a greenhouse gas. When natural gas leaks to the atmosphere from sources like wells, pipelines or processing plants, it adds to climate change. Since the mid-1800s, human activities – mainly, burning fossil fuel – have raised Earth’s temperature by roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 Celsius) above preindustrial levels. Methane has <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf603">caused about 0.9 degrees F (0.5 C) of that warming</a> above preindustrial global temperatures. </p>
<p>LNG is not a transition away from fossil fuel – it is a fossil fuel. Hypothetically, substituting LNG for more carbon-intensive fuels, like coal or other natural gas supplies with higher methane emissions, could help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the near term. </p>
<p>But there’s debate over <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71ba">how much LNG is actually useful in that context</a>, especially when it comes to whether LNG would actually prompt switching from coal to gas, and if so, whether the long-term lock-in of fossil gas use is worth it. Meanwhile, investing in new LNG infrastructure means either committing to operate these facilities for years, or planning to <a href="https://energy.mit.edu/news/energy-transition-could-leave-fossil-energy-producers-and-investors-with-costly-stranded-assets/">strand expensive assets</a> by retiring them early. </p>
<p>LNG terminals also have significant local impacts. In addition to methane, they emit large quantities of other air pollutants, including <a href="https://thelensnola.org/2023/05/26/groups-seek-federal-intervention-for-lng-company-they-deem-air-permit-offender/">nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds</a>. Tanker traffic to and from them can <a href="https://www.ehn.org/lng-environmental-justice-2666656588.html">damage marshes and waterways</a>. Building more terminals, especially in areas where energy facilities <a href="https://lailluminator.com/2023/03/20/sacrifice-zone-gulf-coast-helps-meet-global-natural-gas-needs-but-at-what-cost/">are already concentrated</a>, raises important health and environmental justice concerns.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. LNG export boom could offer economic benefits, but also local and global environmental damage from producing, shipping and consuming natural gas.</span></figcaption>
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<p>A transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions will require a commitment to actually shift away from fossil fuel. In my view, it’s not clear that deploying LNG will achieve this goal unless it’s done with an explicit plan and mechanism to ensure that the gas is only used where it is actually needed and can support an emissions phaseout.</p>
<h2>What do you think this policy review should consider?</h2>
<p>As I see it, the most important step is to develop a coherent national strategy for the role of natural gas in the U.S. energy system, consistent with the Biden administration’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/04/20/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-catalyze-global-climate-action-through-the-major-economies-forum-on-energy-and-climate/#">stringent goals</a> of making the U.S. electricity supply carbon-free electricity by 2035 and achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas economy by 2050. </p>
<p>Such a blueprint would need to include a plan for reshaping the nation’s energy infrastructure to phase out use of natural gas, along with coal and oil. In theory, it could include targeted deployment of gas resources to ensure that energy needs are being met while zero-carbon resources are deployed along the way. </p>
<p>I’d like to see a clear articulation of the climate, health and energy system impacts of approving additional LNG export terminals, with enforcement mechanisms in place to ensure that the U.S. will meet defined limits on climate and other pollution, and on operational conditions. I’d also like to see health and environmental justice considerations deeply embedded into energy and climate decisions in general, and especially for LNG projects. </p>
<p>These plants are sited mainly in communities that <a href="https://prismreports.org/2023/02/20/lng-climate-sacrifice-zones/">have suffered high rates of illness, premature deaths and environmental damage</a> from hosting <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/21/oil-refineries-pollution-gulf-coast-epa/">fossil fuel infrastructure</a> for decades. Many of them have <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/emissions-rising-seas-test-game-changer-lng-project/">said they don’t want</a> additional LNG development. In my view, without clarity on where the U.S. is going on this issue, it will be extremely difficult to make good decisions about LNG, and about natural gas in general.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Grubert served in 2021-2022 as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Carbon Management and, later, as Senior Advisor in the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management at the US Department of Energy, which has permitting authority over LNG terminals. She was not involved with LNG decisions.</span></em></p>The US, a minor liquefied natural gas supplier a decade ago, now is the world’s top source. That’s good for energy security, but bad for Earth’s climate. An energy scholar explains the trade-offs.Emily Grubert, Associate Professor of Sustainable Energy Policy, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2218102024-01-31T12:02:07Z2024-01-31T12:02:07ZOil firms forced to consider full climate effects of new drilling, following landmark Norwegian court ruling<p>Norway’s district court in Oslo recently made a <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/static/planet4-sweden-stateless/2024/01/daf4fe59-oslo-tingretts-dom-og-kjennelse-18.01.2024-deepl-en.pdf">decision</a> on fossil fuels that deserves the attention of every person concerned about climate change. </p>
<p>This ruling, which compels energy firms to account for the industry’s entire carbon footprint, could change the way oil and gas licenses are awarded in Norway – and inspire similar legal challenges to fossil fuel production in other countries.</p>
<p>The court ruled that three petroleum production licenses, held by energy companies including Equinor and Aker BP, were invalid largely due to the lack of consideration that had been given to so-called “downstream emissions”. That is, emissions from burning the petroleum that these firms would extract from the North Sea (also called scope 3 emissions).</p>
<p>This case is a big win for environmental campaigners who have tried to make oil and gas companies account for the emissions that come from burning their products. Similar efforts have been <a href="https://www.no5.com/media/news/greenpeace-fails-in-attempt-to-challenge-bp-s-vorlich-field/index.html">defeated</a> in legal challenges elsewhere over the last few years.</p>
<p>As a researcher of climate and energy law, I have <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jiel/article/26/4/817/7425562">noted in my work</a> how rules on oil and gas licenses are not aligned with national climate targets. I have called for changing these rules so that the downstream emissions the oil and gas from a new field will produce are considered when deciding whether it should go ahead.</p>
<p>Although the judgment only applies to Norway and its implication should not be overstated, it could seed similar arguments in climate litigation elsewhere. This could force governments to consider how drilling for and burning new oil and gas will really affect climate change.</p>
<p>Oil and gas companies applying for exploration and production licenses in new fields are, in most countries, obliged to produce an environmental impact assessment (EIA) for each proposed project. Firms submit these EIAs to the government and they are usually made public. The idea is that public scrutiny and participation will ensure the government’s final decision is informed and transparent. </p>
<p>In many countries, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-and-comparative-law-quarterly/article/abs/climate-assessment-as-an-emerging-obligation-under-customary-international-law/2D0D42C4E488EC511088A30BF3B75429">EIAs must now</a> account for a project’s impact on the climate. But this obligation is typically interpreted as encompassing the emissions from exploration and production only – not from burning the oil and gas extracted. </p>
<p>Despite previous legal challenges and until this recent decision, regulators and courts in oil-producing countries like Norway and the UK have been reluctant to make firms account for the emissions that come from burning the fuels they produce. This is despite the fact these scope 3 or downstream emissions <a href="https://www.wri.org/resources/data-visualizations/upstream-emissions-percentage-overall-lifecycle-emissions">constitute</a> 67%–95% of overall emissions for oil production.</p>
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<img alt="Four diesel pumps in a station forecourt at night." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571899/original/file-20240129-19-k906q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571899/original/file-20240129-19-k906q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571899/original/file-20240129-19-k906q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571899/original/file-20240129-19-k906q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571899/original/file-20240129-19-k906q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571899/original/file-20240129-19-k906q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571899/original/file-20240129-19-k906q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Downstream emissions make up most of the oil and gas industry’s carbon footprint.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/different-gas-diesel-pistols-347923826">FXQuadro/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Why consider downstream emissions?</h2>
<p>Regulators and companies argue that these emissions are not relevant as they do not form a part of the project under consideration. But regulating demand for oil and gas, through higher emission standards for vehicles for example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1804315">is not enough</a> to tackle climate change. </p>
<p>Research <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016">confirms</a> that keeping global heating below 2°C will require a third of the world’s oil and half of its gas reserves to remain underground by 2050. More recent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8">assessments</a> based on limiting warming to 1.5°C are even stricter. </p>
<p>Plainly, we cannot keep producing fossil fuels while keeping climate targets alive.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-president-is-wrong-science-clearly-shows-fossil-fuels-must-go-and-fast-219128">COP28 president is wrong – science clearly shows fossil fuels must go (and fast)</a>
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<p>The legal requirements on EIAs in Norway allow room for interpretation, carving a role for courts to clarify if downstream emissions ought to be included. In a 2020 <a href="https://climatecasechart.com/wp-content/uploads/non-us-case-documents/2020/20201222_HR-2020-846-J_judgment.pdf">ruling</a> by the Norwegian Supreme Court, in a case dubbed People v Arctic Oil, the court decided that downstream emissions were a relevant consideration for environmental assessment. </p>
<p>However, the case concerned opening new areas for firms to bid for licenses and the court ruled that such an assessment was not required at that stage. This new decision concerns the government awarding production licenses for specific fields. </p>
<p>At this stage, firms should have a much better understanding of the geology of the field they intend to drill in, how much oil or gas is there and the quantity of downstream emissions it should yield. The court argued that the government’s interpretation of the law to exclude downstream emissions at this stage is too restrictive and downstream emissions must be considered before granting permits.</p>
<h2>Will the decision inspire further legal challenges?</h2>
<p>Despite the clear victory for environmental groups, the practical value of the judgment must be carefully considered. </p>
<p>The judgment will most likely result in an appeal from the Norwegian Ministry of Energy and take months or years to make its way to the country’s Supreme Court for a final decision. While this might delay the drilling, if the government complies with the judgment and requires oil and gas firms to make the necessary downstream emissions assessment it might still proceed with approving new oil production permits – even if the assessment shows considerable downstream emissions.</p>
<p>Will courts in other countries follow suit? Not every country has a written constitution with environmental rights provisions like Norway (the UK doesn’t, for example). But while foreign judgments do not usually serve as precedent, courts often mention applicable decisions in consideration of the relevant facts. </p>
<p>In the UK, a few outstanding cases deal with downstream emissions. For example, environmental campaign groups Greenpeace and Uplift <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/news/uplift-greenpeace-rosebank-legal-case/">are challenging</a> the government’s approval of the Rosebank oil and gas field west of Shetland, in part due to its lack of consideration of downstream emissions. </p>
<p>The UK Supreme Court is also expected to hand down judgement in the Finch case. This will decide whether it was lawful for Surrey County Council to approve an oil development without requiring an assessment of downstream emissions. </p>
<p>This builds on similar legal challenges in response to new fossil fuel production in <a href="https://climatecasechart.com/non-us-case/gloucester-resources-limited-v-minister-for-planning/">Australia</a> and the <a href="https://climatecasechart.com/case/wildearth-guardians-v-jewell/">US</a>. The outcomes of these cases could change the assessment process for all fossil fuel projects. </p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>has received funding from Uplift and the Scottish government's Just Transition Fund for research not mentioned in this article.</span></em></p>Precedent set by court in Norway could embolden judges and campaigners further afield.Daria Shapovalova, Senior Lecturer in Energy Law, University of Aberdeen, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210182024-01-22T23:25:32Z2024-01-22T23:25:32ZHow Australia’s huge superannuation funds can do much more to fight climate change, with a little help<p>Few of us pay much attention to our superannuation. Under the <a href="https://www.fairwork.gov.au/pay-and-wages/tax-and-superannuation#super-guarantee">Superannuation Guarantee</a>, employers pay at least 11% of salaries into their employees’ super funds without workers having to do anything.</p>
<p>These accumulating automatic payments have turned the Australian super fund industry into one of the world’s largest, and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-24/wall-street-is-partnering-with-cashed-up-fast-growing-australian-pension-funds">the fastest-growing</a>. Worth $A3.5 trillion, our superfunds sit alongside funds from Canada, Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and United States to make up <a href="https://www.thinkingaheadinstitute.org/research-papers/global-pension-assets-study-2023/">92% of total global pension assets.</a></p>
<p>But none of these funds are investing enough in the net zero transition. Institutional investors, of which super funds are a vital part, provided less than 1% of all direct private climate change finance globally in <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2023/">2021/2022</a>- a contribution of around $US6 billion. This is far from the trillions <a href="https://www.allenovery.com/en-gb/global/news-and-insights/news/new-study-reveals-usd200-trillion-of-investment-will-be-needed-to-deliver-net-zero">needed</a> every year to finance renewable energy projects, cleaner industrial processes, and replacing fossil fuels in transport, among other initiatives.</p>
<p>At the same time, many Australian funds continue to invest in carbon-producing companies, such as oil and gas, even when they <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-14/sustainable-ethical-super-funds-with-fossil-fuel-investment/103196032">claim to be making “green” investments</a>.</p>
<p>This article outlines reforms the federal government could undertake to encourage super funds to tackle the climate crisis. This would help align the super system with its original purpose: to provide a better standard of living for the millions of us who will retire on a climate-damaged planet.</p>
<h2>The Albanese government’s sustainable finance plan</h2>
<p>Treasurer Jim Chalmers is aware of the unmet potential of super funds. Treasury’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-money-green-australia-takes-its-first-steps-towards-a-net-zero-finance-strategy-214063">Sustainable Finance Strategy</a>, released in November, outlines measures underway or in development to enable more sustainable investment. The <a href="https://www.asfi.org.au/taxonomy">Australian Sustainable Finance Taxonomy</a>, for example, helps investors and regulators to identify whether an investment is “green”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-money-green-australia-takes-its-first-steps-towards-a-net-zero-finance-strategy-214063">Making money green: Australia takes its first steps towards a net zero finance strategy</a>
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<p>Last month <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/investor-roundtable-help-modernise-economy-maximise-advantages">Chalmers held</a> an “Investor Roundtable” that brought together heads of superannuation funds and others to discuss how to scale up investment in climate change.</p>
<p>Funds expressed their intent to make more investments aligned with net zero. <a href="https://www.rightlane.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Right-Lane-Consulting_May-2023_Staying-the-course-on-net-zero.pdf">Studies</a> consistently show most large Australian funds have pledged to support net zero and established investment targets. Yet they say several regulatory roadblocks hinder them from turning their commitments into action.</p>
<p>The government has said it will make reforms on one roadblock – the <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/stephen-jones-2022/media-releases/your-future-your-super-review-outcomes">funds’ performance-testing framework</a>.</p>
<h2>Why super funds rarely invest in clean energy</h2>
<p>Because superannuation funds are <a href="https://www.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/word_doc/0011/4609586/MCF-submission_31032023.docx">required by law</a> to invest retirement savings for the best return for their members, they give preference to investments that offer the best financial returns with the lowest level of risk.</p>
<p>Funds see companies that are developing and deploying new technologies or operating in areas of significant public policy change as higher risk. That’s a big reason why new green technologies struggle to attract institutional capital compared to those based on fossil fuels.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-australias-net-zero-transition-threatens-to-stall-rooftop-solar-could-help-provide-the-power-we-need-220050">As Australia's net zero transition threatens to stall, rooftop solar could help provide the power we need</a>
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<p>Super funds <a href="https://igcc.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IGCC-The-State-of-Australian-Net-Zero-Investment_March2023.pdf">consistently note in annual surveys</a> that the lack of green investment opportunities with the right risk-adjusted return profile is a huge barrier to exapanding climate-aligned investment. And recent legislative changes have made the situation worse.</p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/your-future-your-super-legislation-and-supporting-material">Your Super Your Future</a> scheme, announced in the 2020-21 Budget, the financial regulator for super funds evaluates funds each year by comparing their performance over an eight-year time period against one of 11 “benchmark” investment portfolios.</p>
<p>This process aims to weed out underachieving funds and to protect members from losing money. Funds that are found to underperform must disclose the fact to their members, and persistent failures cannot accept new member funds. This tough sanction has led funds to “<a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-04/c2022-313936-yfys-review.docx">hug the benchmark</a>”, meaning they pursue investment strategies to beat the performance test and their peers.</p>
<p>The result, as studies <a href="https://theconexusinstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/YFYS-Performance-Test-Constraint-on-ESG-Sustainability-and-Carbon-Transition-Activities-20221109-Final.pdf">show</a>, is that funds are discouraged from pursuing climate-related investments. The test encourages funds to invest in companies or projects that deliver returns over time frames that are too short for most climate-related investments to achieve returns.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-homes-can-be-made-climate-ready-reducing-bills-and-emissions-a-new-report-shows-how-219113">Australian homes can be made climate-ready, reducing bills and emissions – a new report shows how</a>
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<p>Treasury has <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/stephen-jones-2022/media-releases/your-future-your-super-review-outcomes">announced</a> it will extend the performance test period to ten years, and adjust it “to ensure that funds are not unintentionally discouraged from investing in certain assets”. These are encouraging first steps but they are not enough.</p>
<h2>Letting ordinary fund members invest in a greener planet</h2>
<p>Melbourne Climate Futures’ <a href="https://law.unimelb.edu.au/centres/mcle/research/current-research-projects/advancing-investor-action-on-energy-transition">research</a> has uncovered further regulatory barriers that are stalling investment. One relates to the way individual members choose investments.</p>
<p>Since its establishment by the Keating government in 1992, the Superannuation Guarantee has given individuals some choice over how they handle their superannuation. While many <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/businesses-and-organisations/super-for-employers/setting-up-super-for-your-business/select-your-default-super-fund">are placed into a fund</a> with a default investment option when they begin work, they are able to choose different investment approaches.</p>
<p>Some of these focus on a theme, such as sustainability, and some offer different levels of risk exposure. Encouraging individuals to direct more of their super to green companies and projects could be a powerful tool to enable more climate investment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>Surveys show <a href="https://responsibleinvestment.org/resources/benchmark-report/#:%7E:text=The%20Responsible%20Investment%20Benchmark%20Report,comprehensive%20approach%20to%20responsible%20investment.">more than half of Australians</a> support greater climate action. While many people would not support their super fund making climate investments that hurt their returns, <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/super-should-go-green-but-not-for-lower-returns-say-afr-readers-20231210-p5eqcr">at least some members</a> would. Yet the rigid nature of the best-financial-interest duty, combined with the performance test, prevents funds from offering members the option to put the climate first.</p>
<p>This needs to change. The government could amend the best-financial-interest duty so individuals can instruct their funds to invest their money in projects that reduce long-term and systemic financial risks such as climate change. A tax break or a matching contribution from government could also encourage individuals to choose sustainable investment options.</p>
<p>Climate change poses a grave risk to the health, wellbeing and finances of all Australians, including retirees. Federal policy reform is urgently needed to unlock more superannuation for green investment, harness the power and preferences of individual members and help reduce future climate impacts. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arjuna Dibley is a Fellow at the Centre for Policy Development, a Board Member at CarbonPlan and Environmental Justice Australia. He is part of a research team at the University of Melbourne that receives funding from the Australian Research Council to study institutional investors and climate investing. </span></em></p>Our super funds say they want to invest more in the net zero transition but that regulation blocks them. It’s time to put them to the test, and turn their piles of money toward a greener future.Arjuna Dibley, Head of Sustainable Finance Hub, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210582024-01-19T13:03:19Z2024-01-19T13:03:19ZRed Sea shipping disruptions could be avoided in the future by using the Arctic – but it could spell trouble for fragile ecosystems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569909/original/file-20240117-27-cvnsia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=245%2C491%2C5127%2C3145&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/container-cargo-ship-on-icy-waters-752977432">Jean Landry/sHUTTERSTOCK</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Attacks by Yemeni <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2e918f9f-bcb4-47e2-9c15-c70a2a8ade5f">Houthi rebels</a> on merchant ships in the Red Sea have hit world trade. Between November and December 2023, the number of containers travelling through the Red Sea each day <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/11/global-trade-falls-houthi-attacks-merchant-ships-red-sea">fell by 60%</a> as ships moving goods between Asia and Europe diverted their routes around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa.</p>
<p>This route results in at least <a href="https://classic.searoutes.com/">ten days more</a> sailing time, so has caused freight <a href="https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-yemen-houthis-attack-ships-f67d941c260528ac40315ecab4c34ca3">prices to surge</a> and has triggered costly <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/tesla-to-halt-production-at-german-car-factory-as-red-sea-conflict-hits-supply-chains-3735e991#">delays to production</a>. The region has become a bottleneck for the global economy before. The Suez canal, a waterway that connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, was blocked for six days in 2021 after a container ship called the Ever Given ran aground, disrupting <a href="https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/2021_03_26_SupplyChainDisruption.html">billions of dollars</a> worth of trade.</p>
<p>The cape route has been used each time passage through Suez has been disrupted. But there is an alternative sea passage between Asia and Europe – the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920922002589">Northern Sea</a> route. </p>
<p>This route, which runs from the Barents Sea near Russia’s border with Norway, to the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska, may be a better option and will soon become available if <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202213">global warming continues</a> at the predicted rate. Nevertheless, it currently faces many challenges.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-red-sea-attacks-on-cargo-ships-could-disrupt-deliveries-and-push-up-prices-a-logistics-expert-explains-220110">How Red Sea attacks on cargo ships could disrupt deliveries and push up prices – a logistics expert explains</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>An alternative for world trade?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/arctic-summer-sea-ice-could-be-gone-by-2035">Research</a> estimates that summer sea ice around the Siberian coast will be melted completely by 2035. Even if ice cover is not completely removed, the thickness of the sea ice – one of the initial barriers to Arctic shipping – has <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03088839.2016.1231428">significantly reduced</a> over the past four decades from 3.64 metres to 1.89 metres. Arctic navigation is thus expected to be viable by the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X21004966">beginning of the next decade</a>.</p>
<p>For shipments between Shanghai and Rotterdam, the Northern Sea route reduces the distance that ships will need to travel by around <a href="https://services-webdav.cbs.dk/doc/CBS.dk/Arctic%20Shipping%20-%20Commercial%20Opportunities%20and%20Challenges.pdf">3,000 nautical miles</a> compared to Suez and <a href="https://sea-distances.org/">6,200 miles</a> compared to the cape route. This would <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S096669231100024X">reduce</a> the amount of time if takes to sail between eastern Asia and northern Europe to 18 days (it currently takes 32 days via Suez). </p>
<p>Arctic navigation is also performed at very slow speeds – <a href="https://www.marineinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/The-guide-to-slow-steaming-on-ships.pdf">under 18 knots</a> (roughly 21mph). So, depending on sailing speed and the type of fuel used, a cargo ship that passes through the Northern Sea route could use <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X16000038">40% less fuel</a> and generate up to 80% fewer emissions than if it used the Suez route.</p>
<h2>But is it viable?</h2>
<p>Despite its advantages, Arctic navigation is highly seasonal, restricted to the months between <a href="https://www.ocimf.org/document-libary/94-northern-sea-route-navigation-best-practices-and-challenges-1/file">July and November</a>. Navigating ships through the Northern Sea route also requires an escort behind a nuclear-powered icebreaker ship. But the number of icebreakers is limited. Just <a href="https://chnl.no/maps/nsr-shipping-traffic-activities-in-may-2022/">five</a> operated on the Northern Sea route in 2021, rising to <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-launches-new-nuclear-icebreaker-it-looks-east-northern-sea-route-shipping">nine</a> by 2030. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A photo taken onboard an icebreaker ship going through an ice field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Navigating ships through the Northern Sea route requires an escort behind a nuclear-powered icebreaker ship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/icebreaker-going-through-ice-fields-arctic-725163385">Katrin York/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Northern Sea route also suffers capacity issues. So-called “mega-vessels” that have a capacity of around 20,000 containers are deployed for trade between Asia and Europe. However, the Northern Sea route is not able to accommodate mega-vessels due to the imposition of restrictions based on the depth of sea ice. </p>
<p>Nowadays, only vessels with a roughly <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569121001150">5,000 container carrying capacity</a> can easily navigate through the North Sea route during the summer.</p>
<h2>Fragile Arctic ecosystems</h2>
<p>Cargo ships that pass through the Northern Sea route would potentially generate <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920923002936">fewer carbon emissions</a> than ships that travel through Suez. But this alternative route is subject to other environmental challenges. </p>
<p>Arctic ecosystems take a long time to recover from disturbances like oil spills. Accidents in these sensitive regions may thus cause unimaginable marine pollution. </p>
<p>In 1989, for example, the <a href="https://www.marineinsight.com/maritime-history/the-complete-story-of-the-exxon-valdez-oil-spill/">Exxon Valdez</a> oil tanker ran aground in Prince William Sound, Alaska, spilling more than <a href="https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/who-we-are/technology-and-collaborations/energy-technologies/risk-management-and-safety/the-valdez-oil-spill">250,000 barrels</a> of oil into the sea. The oil spill <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/oil-spills-30-years-after-exxon-valdez">killed</a> billions of salmon and more than 300,000 animals from a variety of fish and bird species. </p>
<p>More than 25 years since the spill, four of these species (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/killer-whale">killer whales</a>, <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=kittlitzmurrelet.main">Kittlitz’s murrelets</a>, <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=marbledmurrelet.main">marbled murrelets</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/pigeon-guillemot">pigeon guillemots</a>) have not been re-encountered in the region.</p>
<p>Many cargo ships also carry ballast water to maintain stability during various stages of their operation. Ballast water is taken on or discharged throughout the ship’s journey. This practice could potentially result in the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/18366503.2015.1093695">migration of invasive species</a> to the unique Arctic ecosystem.</p>
<h2>Routes are changing</h2>
<p>Despite these challenges, Arctic shipping traffic is increasing. Between 2013 and 2017, the volume of cargo traffic on the Northern Sea route <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-says-northern-sea-route-transport-270m-tons-2035">rose</a> from 2.8 million tons to 10.7 million tons. </p>
<p>In 2023, this had grown to <a href="https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/news/historical-record-of-the-northern-sea-route-the-cargo-carriage-volume-in-2023-exceeded-36-254-mln-to/">36.2 million tons</a>. And it shows no signs of slowing down. In 2024, Russia’s icebreaker fleet expects to conduct <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-says-northern-sea-route-transport-270m-tons-2035">1,747 escorts</a> (up from <a href="https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/news/historical-record-of-the-northern-sea-route-the-cargo-carriage-volume-in-2023-exceeded-36-254-mln-to/">1,218</a> in 2023).</p>
<p>The Northern Sea route is currently not able to accommodate the vessel traffic and amount of cargo that passes through the Suez Canal. But it could be a viable alternative in the future depending on how fast progress is made on tackling global warming and developing a regulatory framework for navigating the Arctic region.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gokcay Balci receives funding from the British Academy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kemal Akbayirli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have disrupted trade between Asia and Europe – could ships cross the Arctic instead?Kemal Akbayirli, Research Assistant in Maritime Business and Administration, Ordu UniversityGokcay Balci, Assistant Professor in Logistics and Supply Chain, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2202302024-01-12T17:23:44Z2024-01-12T17:23:44Z‘Gold’ hydrogen: natural deposits are turning up all over the world – but how useful is it in our move away from fossil fuels?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568693/original/file-20240110-19-9ph7j7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C0%2C2500%2C1665&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cheap and plentiful supplies of naturally occurring hydrogen could be right beneath our feet.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/drilling-drill-ground-162274277">Kichigin/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hydrogen will play a role in weaning us off fossil fuels. It can be used to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15435075.2019.1685999">power trains, planes and HGVs</a>, as well as being a low-carbon <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618326301">alternative to coke in steelmaking</a> and a way to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319914031383">warm our homes</a>. </p>
<p>But where will we get it? The latest geological research suggests that cheap and plentiful supplies of naturally occurring hydrogen could be found right under our feet – although there’s a long way to go before we can say for sure how useful these stores of “gold” hydrogen will be.</p>
<p>The many ways to obtain hydrogen have an informal, <a href="https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/energy-explained/hydrogen-colour-spectrum">colour-based naming scheme</a>. At present, most of our supplies are “grey” hydrogen, which is made from natural gas. Grey hydrogen does nothing to reduce the climate impact of fossil fuels, because carbon dioxide is produced as a waste product and dumped into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>However, when this waste is captured and buried, what’s then known as “blue” hydrogen is a big improvement. It will allow rapid and relatively climate-friendly <a href="https://hynet.co.uk/hynets-hydrogen-production-hub-given-green-light/">growth in hydrogen production</a> in the short term. </p>
<p>In the future, we’ll use excess electricity from solar and wind farms to perform electrolysis – the electrical breaking up of water into the hydrogen and oxygen it’s made from. This “green” hydrogen is currently more expensive than blue hydrogen and is not yet widely exploited. But that is changing rapidly as governments around the world <a href="https://www.plugpower.com/a-deep-dive-into-global-green-hydrogen-policy-incentives/">find ways to encourage it</a>. There’s also “pink” hydrogen, made using nuclear energy.</p>
<p>Now a new hydrogen hue has appeared: gold (also sometimes known as white). Gold hydrogen is naturally occurring gas trapped in pockets under the ground – in much the same way as oil and natural gas. The question is: will any of these deposits (which are being found all over the world) be large enough to justify the cost of the drills, pipelines and so on that are needed to extract them?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Hand flips a dice and changes the expression CO2 to H2." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568661/original/file-20240110-22-a7b0za.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568661/original/file-20240110-22-a7b0za.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568661/original/file-20240110-22-a7b0za.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568661/original/file-20240110-22-a7b0za.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568661/original/file-20240110-22-a7b0za.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568661/original/file-20240110-22-a7b0za.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568661/original/file-20240110-22-a7b0za.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The environmental impact of hydrogen depends on how it is produced.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/change-fuel-cell-vehicles-hand-flips-1508658467">FrankHH/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Nature’s hydrogen</h2>
<p>Geologists have long known that hydrogen is produced underground by the chemical reaction of iron-rich rocks with water, or when water breaks up by exposure to radioactive minerals. </p>
<p>But, because hydrogen molecules are small and light, they easily percolate through rock and escape into the atmosphere. Hydrogen also serves as a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen-oxidizing_bacteria#:%7E:text=oxidation%20of%20sulphide.-,Knallgas%20bacteria,Cupriavidus%20necator%2C%20and%20Hydrogenovibrio%20marinus.">food source</a> for many microorganisms. Consequently, natural underground deposits of the gas were assumed to be small and rare – and so, with the exception of some work done <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825219304787?casa_token=Xw5AmVJCMXcAAAAA:OCHzwnESrUeAUrjdTxQMoOJV9lvPp5eQOFE9T6bsxp18f70ExovVcWTv5n_2sA9UkjURG2eznEU">decades ago in the Soviet bloc</a>, few attempts have been made to look for it. And if you don’t look, you don’t find. </p>
<p>Now, however, geologists are starting to look and large amounts of natural hydrogen are turning up all over the place. In October 2023, researchers at the French National Centre of Scientific Research discovered a <a href="https://jpt.spe.org/the-new-gold-rush-hunts-for-subsurface-hydrogen">particularly large reservoir</a> of natural hydrogen in north-eastern France’s Lorraine coal basin. The reservoir may contain 250 million tonnes of naturally occurring hydrogen – enough to provide almost as much energy as the UK’s largest oil field (the Claire field, west of Shetland).</p>
<p>Smaller hydrogen reservoirs have been found in <a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/innovation/massive-underground-reservoir-of-natural-hydrogen-in-spain-could-deliver-the-cheapest-h2-in-the-world/2-1-1431515">Spain</a> and across Europe, as well as in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319918327861?casa_token=titTBUsRzEcAAAAA:BoI9jQPOs1v4uBb_oM4Re_YTxYYHX0iYUI-JltCOLtx4aDlB15dqz_Ljkmu8a7gbvdAfwV4tIaA">Mali</a>, Namibia, Brazil, the US and many other countries. So far there’s nothing in the UK, but geologists are starting to think about where to look.</p>
<p><strong>Global distribution of suspected natural hydrogen deposits</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A world map showing the distribution of natural hydrogen deposits." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568690/original/file-20240110-27-5ytzkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568690/original/file-20240110-27-5ytzkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568690/original/file-20240110-27-5ytzkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568690/original/file-20240110-27-5ytzkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568690/original/file-20240110-27-5ytzkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568690/original/file-20240110-27-5ytzkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568690/original/file-20240110-27-5ytzkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Natural hydrogen deposits have been found in many parts of the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Waltham</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Pros and cons</h2>
<p>There’s much to learn before we’ll know if gold hydrogen could have a significant impact on the transition away from fossil fuels. Geologists need to understand better how and where hydrogen gas forms, how it migrates to the places it becomes trapped, and how long it stays there before leaking out or being consumed by microorganisms. </p>
<p>But there are clear benefits to exploiting this low-cost, low-impact energy source. The science and technology needed is similar to that already used by oil and gas firms so jobs, resources and knowledge could be redeployed. </p>
<p>That would help launch the “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211339821000332?casa_token=ZUTLQzMc85cAAAAA:p7VEt3ElnTyPWNBXAIMkaiLR4FP72Dmc_QhTPsdHvL35T62tB6FZOwn76qfSmGdBi7L6RMPTLnc">hydrogen economy</a>” we need as part of a strategy to halt anthropogenic climate change. This will be true even if the deposits turn out to be very limited and, hence, merely a stopgap while we develop enough renewable electricity capacity to make green hydrogen viable.</p>
<p>There are downsides too. Exploiting natural hydrogen deposits could be used as an excuse to foot-drag on the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions immediately. We’ve seen this already with <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-carbon-capture-and-storage-16052">carbon capture and storage</a>. Will gold hydrogen suffer the same fate of being <a href="https://foe.scot/campaign/carbon-capture-storage-hydrogen-beccs/">unfairly pilloried</a> because of over-hype by actors with a hidden agenda (namely some politicians and lobbyists)?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Oil workers drilling for oil." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568658/original/file-20240110-29-vpiqwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568658/original/file-20240110-29-vpiqwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568658/original/file-20240110-29-vpiqwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568658/original/file-20240110-29-vpiqwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568658/original/file-20240110-29-vpiqwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568658/original/file-20240110-29-vpiqwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568658/original/file-20240110-29-vpiqwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil and gas jobs, resources and knowledge can be redeployed as we search for natural hydrogen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/oil-drilling-exploration-workers-working-413486581">pan demin/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another problem is that hydrogen exploration may accidentally lead to new discoveries of fossil fuel. For example, many of the known deposits of gold hydrogen also contain methane, which may need to be separated from the hydrogen and then reburied. </p>
<p>It’s also very hard to tell whether a possible subsurface “trap” contains oil, natural gas, hydrogen or just salt water. The ultimate test is to drill and see what’s there. But if a possible hydrogen field turns out to contain crude oil, how do we ensure it’s left in the ground?</p>
<p>The big question, though, is how seriously to take gold hydrogen. Will it turn out to be an over-hyped distraction of very limited utility? Or will it provide a pain-free path into a low-carbon future? The truth probably lies between these extremes, but only time (and further research) will tell us.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Waltham is Director of the Centre for Energy and Resources (CERes) at Royal Holloway, University of London.</span></em></p>Gold hydrogen is naturally occurring gas trapped in pockets under the ground – in much the same way as oil and natural gasDavid Waltham, Professor of Geophysics, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201462023-12-22T15:47:33Z2023-12-22T15:47:33ZUK ban on boilers in new homes rules out hydrogen as a heating source<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567110/original/file-20231221-23-d9yco4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7304%2C4902&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/professional-engineer-doing-boiler-inspection-home-2159556831">Stock-Asso/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Boilers will be banned in new-build homes in the UK from 2025, according to a long-awaited government consultation on energy efficiency standards in the housebuilding industry. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/the-future-homes-and-buildings-standards-2023-consultation/the-future-homes-and-buildings-standards-2023-consultation#performance-requirements-for-new-buildings">report</a> said that there is “no practical way” that installing boilers of any type will “deliver significant carbon savings and ‘zero-carbon ready’ homes”. </p>
<p>What’s more surprising is that hydrogen has also been ruled out as a potential heating source. Previously, hydrogen had been touted by both the government and the energy industry as a logical replacement for the natural gas (a fossil fuel and contributor to climate change) that is pumped through the national grid and burned in boilers throughout the UK.</p>
<p>Provided it is made without emitting carbon, typically by using renewable electricity to separate water molecules, hydrogen is a “clean” fuel. But the vast majority of the hydrogen used worldwide is produced <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/low-emission-fuels/hydrogen">using fossil fuels</a>, making it a dubious green alternative. </p>
<p>A report in March 2023 by <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1144529/hydrogen-champion-report.pdf">a UK government advisor</a> recommended blending up to 20% hydrogen into the gas grid. Some of the biggest boiler manufacturers <a href="https://www.boilerguide.co.uk/gas-boiler/hydrogen-ready/manufacturers#:%7E:text=Hydrogen%20boiler%20manufacturers%20Worcester%20Bosch,gas%20network%20would%20be%202026">called for</a> “all boilers to be hydrogen-compatible as of 2025”. And, as recently as December 2022, the government considered making all gas boilers sold to homes from 2026 capable of one day <a href="https://www.hvnplus.co.uk/news/government-proposes-mandatory-sale-of-hydrogen-ready-boilers-from-2026-14-12-2022/">burning hydrogen instead</a>. </p>
<p>Three towns, <a href="https://www.cheshire-live.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/uks-first-hydrogen-village-project-24929882">Whitby in Cheshire</a>, <a href="https://www.redcarhydrogencommunity.co.uk/">Redcar in North Yorkshire</a> and <a href="https://www.fife.gov.uk/kb/docs/articles/environment2/climate-change,-carbon-and-energy/h100-fife-hydrogen-heating-network">Levenmouth in Fife</a>, were even chosen to host trials where several homes would be heated with hydrogen.</p>
<p>Outside of the bubble inflated by the government and industry figures, few thought that using hydrogen for home heating was a good idea. Hydrogen won’t solve either of the two biggest energy challenges: cost and carbon emissions. The process of making hydrogen is significantly more expensive than pumping natural gas and there simply is not enough “clean” hydrogen available.</p>
<p>A 2022 report by Dr Jan Rosenow from the University of Oxford reviewed 32 international studies on the use of hydrogen for heating and concluded that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/363913282_Is_heating_homes_with_hydrogen_all_but_a_pipe_dream_An_evidence_review">its widespread use was not justifiable</a>. “Hydrogen use for domestic heating is less economic, less efficient, more resource intensive, and associated with larger environmental impacts” than alternatives such as heat pumps, it said. </p>
<p>Heat pumps are rapidly becoming the default choice for heating (and cooling) globally. Using the same technology as a refrigerator or air conditioner, heat pumps powered by electricity extract and transfer heat <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-heat-pumps/how-a-heat-pump-works">to where it is needed</a>.</p>
<h2>Did COP28 burst hydrogen’s bubble?</h2>
<p>The timing of the consultation is intriguing. It was originally scheduled to be published <a href="https://www.edie.net/opted-for-the-least-ambitious-option-government-lambasted-over-future-homes-consultation/">in late 2020</a> but was postponed several times. It was finally released on December 13 2023, on the same day that nearly 200 countries agreed to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/countries-push-cop28-deal-fossil-fuels-talks-spill-into-overtime-2023-12-12/%23:%7E:text=DUBAI,%2520Dec%252013%2520(Reuters),end%2520of%2520the%2520oil%2520age.">“transition” away from fossil fuels</a> at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai. </p>
<p>A few days prior to this on December 8, a broad range of government, industry and voluntary organisations launched a joint declaration at COP28 on the <a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/cop28-new-declaration-calls-for-green-hydrogen-to-be-prioritised-for-fossil-fuel-replacement-not-heating-or-power/2-1-1567713">Responsible Deployment of Renewables-Based Hydrogen</a>. </p>
<p>The declaration includes a pledge to prioritise clean hydrogen for “displacing the current use of fossil-based hydrogen” where a lot is already needed, or for “hard-to-abate sectors” such as heavy industry where a lot more will be needed. It went on to state that its use for heating would be “potentially cannibalising renewable electricity”. This is because you end up with only <a href="https://www.carboncommentary.com/blog/2021/6/11/some-rules-of-thumb-of-the-hydrogen-economy#:%7E:text=A%20survey%20of%20the%20major,kWh%2C%20or%2067%25%20efficiency.">two-thirds of the energy in the hydrogen</a> that you started with from the electricity.</p>
<p>As for the three trial projects, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/hydrogen-may-never-heat-british-homes-after-redcar-trial-cancelled-13030237">two have already been cancelled</a> due to protests and a lack of uptake by residents. It is hard to see how the one remaining in Fife could sensibly proceed – especially as the Scottish government signed the Responsible Hydrogen declaration.</p>
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<img alt="Port Talbot Steelworks at sunset." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567099/original/file-20231221-15-fig82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Port Talbot Steelworks in south Wales.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tata-steel-plant-port-talbot-south-402633844">Chris Goddard/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>What the future holds</h2>
<p>This is just a consultation. In other words, a government policy document submitted for <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/consultation-paper/">public feedback</a>. There is no guarantee that the ban on hydrogen boilers will be implemented by parliament. It is probable that energy industry groups will lobby for changes through the consultation process, and ultimately it will be the politicians who decide.</p>
<p>But the direction of travel has been set. This is “<a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era">the beginning of the end</a>” of the fossil fuel era according to the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in his closing speech at COP28. </p>
<p>Germany’s climate envoy Jennifer Morgan <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/15/fossil-fuels-how-a-huge-gamble-sealed-cop28-deal">said</a>: “Now the signals are clear. If you’re an investor, the future is renewable. Fossil fuels are stranded assets.” Clean hydrogen will be a part of that transition but only where no viable alternatives exist.</p>
<p>Regardless of whether the recommendations of the Future Homes consultation become law, we can safely say a few things:</p>
<ul>
<li>Hydrogen will not be used for home heating in any meaningful way. Even if the government ignores the consultation, there is neither scientific nor public support for its use and it will not reduce energy costs.</li>
<li>Assume that all new-build homes will be fitted with heat pumps starting within the next few years. The reality is they are cost-effective to install and operate, especially as insulation levels are increased such that the need for space heating becomes minimal.</li>
<li>The only real alternative to heat pumps, especially for apartments, are district heat networks where hot water gets pumped around a whole neighbourhood from a central source. These are commonplace in many cold countries, so we should expect to see a lot more of them in the UK.</li>
</ul>
<p>The other certainty is that home boilers will very soon move into the realm of nostalgia.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ran Boydell receives funding from the UK and Scottish governments for research projects on the built environment. He is affiliated with the Scottish Ecological Design Association (SEDA).</span></em></p>Hydrogen will not be used to heat UK homes in the future in any meaningful way.Ran Boydell, Associate Professor in Sustainable Development, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199362023-12-22T10:07:43Z2023-12-22T10:07:43ZBritain likely to generate more electricity from wind, solar and hydro than fossil fuels for the first year ever in 2023<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567140/original/file-20231221-19-sldigm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5435%2C3610&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar now provides about 5% of Britain's electricity.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-looking-over-modern-solar-farm-1768728767">StudioFI / shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There are many milestones to pass in the transition from a high to low-carbon sustainable energy system. There is the first hour without coal, or oil, or gas generation (or all of them together) and the point when the last coal, oil or gas power plant (or all of them together) are finally retired. </p>
<p>Another milestone that feels important is the first year when renewables generate more electricity than fossil fuels. For the past three months we have been tracking the data for Great Britain (not Northern Ireland, which shares an electricity grid with the Republic of Ireland) and we believe it is on track to pass this milestone in 2023, but it will be very close.</p>
<p>Using the broadest definition, renewables actually first overtook fossil fuels in the odd, COVID-affected year of 2020 (although not in the subsequent years of 2021 and 2022). However, that includes 5% or so of Britain’s electricity that is generated through “biomass” plants (which burn wood pellets, often imported <a href="https://www.drax.com/us/sourcing-sustainable-biomass/">from forests in America</a>). </p>
<p>Trees can of course be regrown, so biomass counts as renewable. But the industry <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/11/burning-imported-wood-in-drax-power-plant-doesnt-make-sense-says-kwarteng">has its critics</a> and it’s not globally scalable in the same way as the “weather-dependent” renewables: wind, solar and to a certain degree hydro power.</p>
<p>When we use this narrower, weather-dependent definition that is more appropriate for a global transition, then there is a very good chance these renewables will overtake fossil fuels for the first time ever in 2023. Once this milestone has been passed, we also think it is unlikely (though not impossible) that gas and coal will ever again generate more of Britain’s electricity than wind, solar and hydro over a full year.</p>
<p><iframe id="kc9QL" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kc9QL/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Whether Britain passes the milestone in 2023 will come down to the final few days of the year (from here on we’ll use “renewables” to refer to the tighter, biomass-excluding definition). </p>
<p>The chart above can be used to track progress and will update with the latest data each day. The lines show the running total of the difference between how much electricity has been generated by renewables and fossil fuels. </p>
<p>When the line is increasing, this shows more renewables than fossil fuels for that period. The horizontal axis shows the day of the year, so, if at any point the line is above the zero axis, that indicates that the year so far has had more renewable than fossil fuel generation. If the red line ends the year above zero, then Britain will have achieved the milestone.</p>
<p>(One caveat is that we know from the official statistics published later that there are some differences from “missing” and estimates for embedded generation; this typically only accounts for around 1%-2% of the final total.) </p>
<h2>It depends on the weather</h2>
<p>As we write this, with ten days of data left in 2023, renewables are very slightly ahead (by just over 1000 GWh - about the same level as a peak day of electrical demand). However if they are to stay ahead it will depend on the weather – especially the wind.</p>
<p>The reasoning here is that Britain uses less electricity over the holiday period due to less industrial and commercial demand. As wind power is clean and has become cheaper, it tends to be used first, meaning when demand is low or it is sufficiently windy there is less need to generate electricity with fossil fuels. </p>
<p>There are nuances around this such as where the generation is located, and the amount of electricity imported from other countries, but the general principle of renewables taking market share away from fossil fuels is a factor of Britain’s electrical market.</p>
<p>An important area to also highlight is the continued drop in electrical demand. 2023 is on track to have a lower demand than 2022, which itself was lower than the COVID-impacted year of 2020 (<a href="https://theconversation.com/britains-electricity-use-is-at-its-lowest-for-decades-but-will-never-be-this-low-again-152360">against our predictions</a>) due to record prices. The drop in electrical demand means that additional generation was not needed, much of it inevitably from fossil fuels.</p>
<h2>Additional milestone also likely to be passed</h2>
<p>However 2023 could be the first year where renewable generation exceeds domestic electricity demand (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-chapter-5-digest-of-united-kingdom-energy-statistics-dukes">homes comprise 36% of total electrical demand</a>). This means the annual electricity generated by Britain’s wind turbines, solar panels and hydro resource will now be greater than that consumed over the year by its 29 million households.</p>
<p><iframe id="3leTa" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3leTa/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The above bar chart demonstrates the trend towards this point since 2009. In the first half of 2023, renewable output was less than domestic electrical demand by 1.5 TWh (1500 GWh), but strong renewable performance since then means it is likely to end the year with total generation in excess of household demand. </p>
<p>If either of the milestones described here do not happen for 2023, then they will almost certainly occur in 2024, during which another <a href="https://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/media/3954/offshore-wind-project-listing.pdf">1.7 GW of offshore wind capacity</a> will begin generating and Britain’s last coal-fired power station is scheduled to cease producing electricity altogether.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Wilson receives funding from EPSRC and InnovateUK under a range of different projects. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Day receives funding from EPSRC under the GasNetNew project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katarina Pegg receives funding from EPSRC as part of the Sustainable Hydrogen CDT.</span></em></p>An important milestone set to be passed – if it remains windy.Grant Wilson, Associate Professor, Energy Systems and Data Group, Birmingham Energy Institute, University of BirminghamJoseph Day, Postdoctoral Research Assistant, Energy Systems and Data Group, University of BirminghamKatarina Pegg, PhD Candidate, Energy Systems and Data Group, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201422023-12-20T13:38:01Z2023-12-20T13:38:01ZWhy the COP28 climate summit mattered, and what to watch for in 2024<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566693/original/file-20231219-17-i3ffem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C9%2C2038%2C1352&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, had front-row seats at COP28's final session. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/53394837161/in/album-72177720313353788/">Kiara Worth/UN Climate Change via Flickr,</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Reading down the lengthy <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf">final agreement of the COP28</a> United Nations climate conference held in December 2023, you’ll go a long way before finding a strong, active verb. The lengthy recitation of climate impacts “notes with concern” and occasionally with “significant concern” <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023">glaring gaps</a> in countries’ current policies. But while countries volunteered pledges to act, they were less keen to have those pledges framed as binding agreements in the final text.</p>
<p>Reactions to COP28’s conclusion have been understandably mixed. Going into the talks, the world was <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-is-the-global-stocktake-and-could-it-accelerate-climate-action/">more on track</a> to avert catastrophic warming than it would have been without the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">2015 Paris Agreement</a>, but a long way from where it needs to be.</p>
<p>Even <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-assessment-of-the-evolving-pledges-at-cop28">if all the pledges made at COP28 are implemented</a>, the world will still exceed the Paris goal of keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared to preindustrial temperatures.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart shows if all COP28 pledges were met, the world would be closer to the goal of keeping emissions under 1.5 C but not on track." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566601/original/file-20231219-27-qde9s6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Climate Action Tracker assessment of countries’ pledges at COP28 to reduce emissions shows progress toward the 2030 goal, but a large gap.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/cop28-initiatives-create-buzz-will-only-reduce-emissions-if-followed-through/">Copyright Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Politically, the agreement may have been the best that nations could reach at this time of <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/age-great-power-distraction-kimmage-notte">rising geopolitical tensions</a> and under the leadership of the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is a country of contradictions – a petrostate with renewable energy ambitions, keen to emerge onto the global stage as a green champion, but also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/30/the-new-scramble-for-africa-how-a-uae-sheikh-quietly-made-carbon-deals-for-forests-bigger-than-uk">accused of colonization tactics</a> in Africa.</p>
<p>Most headlines have focused on the COP28 agreement’s mention of fossil fuels for the first time. The convoluted language called for countries to “<a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf">contribute” to</a> “transitioning away from fossil fuels,” not the phaseout supported by a majority of countries. With an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/05/record-number-of-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-get-access-to-cop28-climate-talks">unprecedented number of energy industry lobbyists</a> on hand, the consensus was described by the most vulnerable countries as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-cop28-failed-the-worlds-small-islands-219938">litany of loopholes</a>.</p>
<p>The final agreement was, in large parts, written in a way to secure the future of the natural gas industry. It portrayed natural gas as a necessary bridge fuel while renewable energy expands, an argument that was <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023">disproved by the International Energy Agency</a> before COP28. The agreement also furthered the expectation of continued heavy subsidies for carbon capture and storage, which many energy analysts and economists have dismissed as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/carbon-capture-removal-cop28-fossil-fuels-oil-gas-2bc53c6a8df6d337c1afcabad56377e8">unscalable at a reasonable cost</a>.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the UAE blasted through some of the old shibboleths of climate negotiation. It broke the polarity of climate finance – the Global South waiting for the Global North to fulfill its promises of public finance – by <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/10/what-is-alterra-the-uaes-30-billion-green-investment-fund/">focusing on private investment</a> and putting tens of billions of dollars of its sovereign wealth into play. It was not able to persuade others to match its generosity, but there will be more pressure in 2024.</p>
<p>So, what should we look for in the coming months?</p>
<h2>1. Turning new energy pledges into action</h2>
<p>COP28 included <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/af71fc48-b89f-4920-a35b-2867b7adcc0c">significant commitments toward an energy transition</a> away from fossil fuels, including pledges to triple <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/global-renewables-and-energy-efficiency-pledge">renewable energy capacity, increase energy efficiency</a> and cut <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/2/at-cop28-oil-companies-pledge-to-lower-methane-emissions">methane emissions</a>.</p>
<p>Now it’s up to countries and companies to show progress. That will depend on investments and overcoming supply bottlenecks, as well as new policies and, in the case of methane, <a href="https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/how-international-agreement-methane-emissions-can-pave-way-enhanced">standards for imports and exports</a>.</p>
<p>The new <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-cooling-pledge">Global Cooling Pledge</a> to reduce emissions from cooling by 68% while increasing access to cooling technology is increasingly critical. <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/buildings/space-cooling">Demand for cooling is driving up energy demand</a> across the globe, particularly in populous countries hard hit by extreme heat, such as India. Developing technologies that help the billions of people most at risk and improve cold supply chains for food and medicine will require more investment and greater priority from governments.</p>
<p>Watch for <a href="https://www.climateresilience.org/">more cities to appoint heat czars</a> to spearhead efforts to protect populations from extreme heat, <a href="https://time.com/6336537/america-tree-equity-urban-climate-solution/">adoption of tree equity plans</a> to increase shade and cooling, and more investment in cooling technologies.</p>
<h2>2. Deploying innovations in finance</h2>
<p>COP28 saw significant innovation in finance, including the UAE’s announcement of the Alterra Fund – a <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/10/what-is-alterra-the-uaes-30-billion-green-investment-fund/">$30 billion commitment</a> to mobilize private investment in developing countries.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.iosco.org/news/pdf/IOSCONEWS717.pdf">International Organization of Securities Commissions</a> sent a strong statement in support of <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/groups/international-sustainability-standards-board/">corporate sustainability disclosure standards</a> and welcomed <a href="https://icvcm.org/icvcm-and-vcmi-join-forces-to-operationalize-a-high-integrity-market-to-accelerate-global-climate-action/">corporate integrity standards in the voluntary carbon markets</a>. Look for more countries to add rules around <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">“net-zero emissions” pledges</a>.</p>
<h2>3. Putting trade to work for the climate</h2>
<p>Linked to finance and investment is trade, which <a href="https://www.thebanker.com/How-trade-and-trade-finance-can-assist-the-transition-to-net-zero-1701941013">COP28 welcomed</a> to the main stage for the first time.</p>
<p>There are two things to look for in 2024. First, look for the World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to align their advice to governments on effective carbon pricing.</p>
<p>Second, while trade and climate negotiators traditionally move in different circles, they will <a href="https://earth.org/free-trade-agreement/">need to work together</a> to ensure the trade system supports climate action. For example, making sure green products and services are not made more expensive than their polluting alternatives.</p>
<h2>4. Fixing the carbon markets</h2>
<p>2023 was a year of pushback on the voluntary carbon markets, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe">investigations questioned their effectiveness</a>. COP28’s failure to advance agreements on carbon markets under <a href="https://www.undp.org/energy/blog/what-article-6-paris-agreement-and-why-it-important">Article 6 of the Paris Agreement</a> means they will be a focus in 2024.</p>
<p>In this case, <a href="https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2023/12/13/cop28-article-6-failure-avoids-a-worse-outcome/">no deal was better than a bad deal</a>, but the delay means countries that plan to use carbon markets to meet their net-zero targets are left with uncertainty.</p>
<h2>5. Getting more adaptation funding where it’s needed</h2>
<p>An agreement on a global goal on adaptation, a collective commitment to build resilience and adaptive capacity across the world, was finally reached, but negotiators left the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-would-an-ambitious-global-goal-on-adaptation-look-like-at-cop28/">details to be filled in over the next two years</a>.</p>
<p>To get adaptation funding flowing to where it is most needed, top-down discussions will need to start, including <a href="https://www.wri.org/initiatives/locally-led-adaptation/principles-locally-led-adaptation">locally led efforts</a>. Look for adaptation to become a much bigger part of countries’ second-generation climate plans to be submitted to the U.N. before COP30.</p>
<h2>6. Turning new food and ag pledges into action</h2>
<p>A majority of the world’s countries, 159, signed the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/food-and-agriculture">UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action</a>. They agreed to include food systems, which contribute a significant percentage of global emissions and which are fundamental to adaptation and resilience, in the next generation of climate plans to be submitted to the U.N.</p>
<p>The pledge was thin on details, however, so how each country turns words into actions will be crucial in 2024.</p>
<h2>The next big climate milestones</h2>
<p>In late 2024, COP29 will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan – another oil-producing nation. The focus will be on finance. But the <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era">next big milestone is in 2025</a>, when governments must submit their future pledges and plans for reducing emissions.</p>
<p>COP30 is to be held in Belen in the Brazilian state of Para – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">frontline of Amazon protection</a>. This will bring a focus on nature-based solutions, but from the perspective of the Global South. President Lula da Silva, who is also the host of the G20 in 2024, wants to see change in the international trade and finance system to reflect shifts in the global economy.</p>
<p>COP28 set forth important initiatives but balked at binding commitments. As countries work on their next generation of plans to try to get the world on track to limit global warming, they will have to consider the whole of their economies and cover all greenhouse gases. The world can’t afford to balk twice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kyte is affiliated with VCMI - Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative, and Climate Resilience for All CRA</span></em></p>The UN climate conference brought some progress. A former UN official who has been involved in international climate policy for years explains what has to happen now for that progress to pay off.Rachel Kyte, Visiting Professor of Practice, Blavatnik School of Government, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195922023-12-20T03:17:58Z2023-12-20T03:17:58ZCarbon in, carbon out: Australia’s ‘carbon budget’ assessment reveals astonishing boom and bust cycles<p>If you really want to know how much Australia contributes to the amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere, you have to study all the “sources” and “sinks”. </p>
<p>Sources release CO₂ into the atmosphere, while sinks take it out. There are sources from human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, and there are natural sinks such as plants absorbing CO₂. You can tally it all up on a balance sheet to find the net result. Are we adding to CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, overall? And if so, by how much? </p>
<p>It’s an enormous undertaking, but not impossible. We have just published the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007845">most comprehensive assessment</a> of Australian CO₂ sources and sinks. It covers the decade from 2010 to 2019, and it reveals some surprising features.</p>
<p>Astonishingly, we found the net annual carbon balance of the entire continent switches from year to year. Australia can be a large net source of CO₂ one year and a large net CO₂ sink the next, in response to our increasingly variable climate. That makes it harder to detect long-term trends and understand whether our natural carbon sinks are growing or decreasing. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fossil-co-emissions-hit-record-high-yet-again-in-2023-216436">Fossil CO₂ emissions hit record high yet again in 2023</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What is the contemporary carbon budget?</h2>
<p>Our research reveals what we call the “contemporary carbon budget” for Australia. </p>
<p>This budget is different from the “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5">remaining carbon budget</a>”, which refers to the CO₂ that can still be emitted before we exceed a certain level of warming.</p>
<p>We constructed the contemporary budget using a wide variety of data and modelling approaches. We needed to estimate the carbon “fluxes” (sources and sinks) of land-based ecosystems, freshwater bodies, and of human activities such as the combustion of fossil fuels and changes in land clearing and revegetation.</p>
<p>We also used global assessments, <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-updates">Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a>, and <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au">trade statistics</a>. And we used atmospheric and satellite CO₂ information to help determine the Australian carbon balance, as well as other satellite-based data to estimate Australia’s fire emissions.</p>
<p>We developed this carbon budget with the best available data and scientific tools. However, large uncertainties such as data gaps and model limitations remain for some of the estimates. We report all uncertainties in the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007845">research paper</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A colourful infographic explaining Australia's Carbon Budget 2010-2019" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567619/original/file-20240102-25-o9xvng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s Carbon Budget 2010-2019. A product of the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub; and a contribution to the Global Carbon Project - Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes-2.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: NESP-2</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Carbon in, carbon out</h2>
<p>The biggest CO₂ source from Australia’s human activities is fossil fuels, with an average of 403 million tonnes of CO₂ for the decade 2010-19. That can be broken down into coal (44%), oil (34%), gas (18%), gas flaring (3%) and cement (1%).</p>
<p><iframe id="XazPL" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XazPL/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Emissions from wildfires (natural) and prescribed burning (human-caused) were 568 million tonnes of CO₂ a year which, unlike fossil fuels, are largely offset by subsequent vegetation regrowth. This led to a net CO₂ accumulation in the atmosphere of 36 million tonnes a year. CO₂ emissions from the Black Summer fires in 2019 were exceptionally high at 951 million tonnes, much of which has already returned to vegetation after three years of above-average rainfall.</p>
<p>Rivers, lakes and reservoirs – both natural and human-made – are also sources of CO₂, contributing 82 million tonnes.</p>
<p>Natural forests, savannas and the large expanses of rangelands all contributed to removing vast amounts of CO₂ from the atmosphere at a rate of more than 388 million tonnes a year. </p>
<p>Coastal ecosystems “blue carbon” such as mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses soaked up 61 million tonnes of CO₂ a year, further adding to Australia’s CO₂ sinks. However, estuaries, including tidal systems, deltas and lagoons, released 27 million tonnes of CO₂ into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>The oceans surrounding Australia are also strong CO₂ sinks, removing about 183 million tonnes of CO₂ a year. This highlights the important role of the oceans, in addition to the land sink, in slowing the buildup of atmospheric CO₂ due to human emissions.</p>
<h2>Exported carbon</h2>
<p>Every year, about 1 billion tonnes of CO₂ are exported in the form of fossil fuels, primarily coal and natural gas.</p>
<p><iframe id="HJjc6" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HJjc6/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A further 22 million tonnes of embedded CO₂ are exported every year in products such as wheat, wood pellets and livestock. </p>
<p>When these exported fossil fuels and products are consumed overseas, they release their carbon content into the atmosphere as CO₂.</p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> and rules supporting the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> only require nations to report emissions released from their own territory. Emissions from exports are counted by the countries where the fossil fuels and products are eventually consumed.</p>
<h2>The flip-flop carbon dynamics</h2>
<p>We have long known about the “boom and bust” dynamics of Australia’s vegetation growth as it responds to periods of above-average rainfall and drought.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An animated map of Australia with blue, red and yellow colouring to show levels of carbon released by the ecosystem." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565724/original/file-20231214-15-yflna0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Monthly gross primary production of carbon, since January 2015. The Conversation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007845">Data supplied by author</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But we never imagined the entire nation could flip-flop so quickly from being a very strong and globally significant CO₂ sink, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/record-rains-made-australia-a-giant-green-global-carbon-sink-26646">in the La Niña of 2010-11</a>, to being a major source of CO₂. But that’s precisely what happened as drought and fire changed the carbon accounts of Australia, during the southeast drought of 2018-19 and the following Black Summer fires in 2019.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-staggering-1-8-million-hectares-burned-in-high-severity-fires-during-australias-black-summer-157883">A staggering 1.8 million hectares burned in 'high-severity' fires during Australia's Black Summer</a>
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<h2>What this tells us about the path to net zero</h2>
<p>When we put all of the land-based CO₂ sources and sinks together, overall Australia was a net source to the atmosphere of 200 million tonnes of CO₂ a year during 2010-19. This drops to 140 million tonnes of CO₂ a year if we count the sinks from coastal ecosystems.</p>
<p>This means CO₂ sinks are partially offsetting fossil fuel emissions. This is something we have also estimated at the global scale, where <a href="https://globalcarbonbudget.org/carbonbudget2023/">about one-third</a> of global fossil fuel emissions are removed by terrestrial land-based CO₂ sinks.</p>
<p>While this highlights the important role natural CO₂ sinks play in slowing climate change, it does not imply we have less work to do to reach the net zero emissions target.</p>
<p>That is because natural CO₂ sinks <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-resolving-how-land-emissions-are-counted-is-critical-for-tracking-climate-progress/">are already accounted</a> for in estimates of the remaining carbon budgets and decarbonisation pathways to stabilise the climate. Accordingly, the Paris Agreement calls for achieving a balance between anthropogenic emissions and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases, the so-called net zero target.</p>
<p>The large year-to-year variability of Australia’s non-anthropogenic carbon dynamics also underscores the need for a comprehensive and long-term monitoring and modelling observatory system to track the evolution of sources and sinks. We need high quality data supplementing the National Greenhouse Accounts to support decisions around how to use Australia’s natural assets to mitigate climate change.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-removal-is-needed-to-achieve-net-zero-but-has-its-own-climate-risks-217355">Carbon removal is needed to achieve net zero but has its own climate risks</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219592/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yohanna Villalobos receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program (NESP) and CSIRO Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Smith receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Swedish Research Council, European Union and R&D funding programs of the New South Wales Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Briggs receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub and is a member of the ACT Greens.</span></em></p>The most comprehensive Australian carbon budget assessment completed to date shows the nation flip-flops from source to sink of carbon emissions, depending on the prevailing conditions.Yohanna Villalobos, Postdoctoral research fellow, Lund UniversityBenjamin Smith, Director of Research, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney UniversityPep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROPeter Briggs, Scientific Programmer and Data Analyst, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200402023-12-19T19:02:18Z2023-12-19T19:02:18ZFrom COVID to climate: Queensland’s new emissions pledge shows state governments are once again leading change<p>A striking development in recent years has been the increasing role of state governments in responding to global crises. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/15/steven-miles-announces-ambitious-emissions-reduction-plan-in-first-speech-as-queensland-premier">announcement</a> by newly installed Queensland Premier Steven Miles of an ambitious 75% by 2035 emissions cut target is a case in point.</p>
<p>The renewed centrality of state governments became dramatically evident as the COVID pandemic unfolded, where the states responded strongly while the Commonwealth <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2021/september/1630418400/john-quiggin/dismembering-government">often seemed paralysed</a>.</p>
<p>But it is also true of the response to climate change, where successive national governments have been unable or unwilling to take serious action. The only notable exception – the 2012 carbon price under the Gillard minority government – was extracted by the Greens in return for their support.</p>
<p>Does it matter who does the work? Yes. State efforts can take us a long way towards cutting emissions. But we need federal policies on nationwide issues such as electrifying transport. </p>
<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>Several decades of neoliberal reform and the mantra of <a href="https://anzsog.edu.au/research-insights-and-resources/research/has-new-public-management-improved-public-services/">new public management</a> – bringing business-style competition to the public service – have hollowed out the capacity of the national government to do anything directly. Instead, they have to <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2021/september/1630418400/john-quiggin/dismembering-government">rely on contractors and consultants</a>, limiting any real federal capacity for decisive policy action. </p>
<p>By contrast, hollowing out has been much more muted at state level, where the need to provide schools, hospitals, police and other services have kept governments closer to the actual business of policy delivery.</p>
<p>This pattern of Commonwealth inertia and state activism goes back as far as the 2008 <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/3028">Garnaut Review of Climate Change</a>, commissioned by state governments in response to the Howard Coalition government’s unwillingness to act. </p>
<p>The Labor government took over support for the review after the 2007 election, but the Rudd Government was unable to secure bipartisan support for climate policies. </p>
<p>When the Coalition was back in office from 2013 to 2022, climate denialists in their ranks sought to do the minimum possible without openly rejecting global efforts to stabilise the climate. </p>
<p>By 2022 it was clear Australia would easily exceed our Paris Agreement commitment of a 26% reduction on 2005 emissions through land use change and the rise of renewables. Even so, the power of the denialists was such that the government’s backbench would not consent to an official increase in the target.</p>
<p>As a result, the new Albanese government could commit to a substantially higher target of 43% without any significant policy effort. </p>
<p>Instead of the carbon price Opposition Leader Bill Shorten had promised in 2019, Albanese offered <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-will-have-a-carbon-price-for-industry-and-it-may-infuse-greater-climate-action-across-the-economy-202728">an upgrade</a> to the Safeguard Mechanism, introduced by the Coalition. Energy and Climate Minister Chris Bowen has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-compulsion-for-households-to-buy-evs-or-greener-appliances-government-pledges-20231130-p5eo1m.html">ruled out</a> modest steps such as ending the sale of internal-combustion engine cars by 2040.</p>
<p>Almost all states and territories now have 2030 emission cut goals more ambitious than the national 43% target:</p>
<ul>
<li>New South Wales: 50% </li>
<li>Victoria: 50%</li>
<li>South Australia: at least 50% </li>
<li>Western Australia: 80% below 2020 levels</li>
<li>Australian Capital Territory: 65–75% below 1990 levels</li>
<li>Tasmania: achieved net zero in 2015. </li>
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<p>Until last week, Queensland was the odd state out, with a 2030 target reduction of only 30% relative to 2005. The new goal – 75% by 2035 – moves Queensland from the back of the pack almost to the front. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-deal-confirms-what-australia-already-knows-coal-is-out-of-vogue-and-out-of-time-219906">COP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time</a>
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<h2>Can Queensland really move so quickly?</h2>
<p>The first step towards achieving this goal was largely symbolic: the knockback of a new coal-fired power station proposed by mining magnate Clive Palmer. The proposal was almost certainly unviable, as it assumed the use of <a href="https://www.atse.org.au/news-and-events/article/does-ccs-make-economic-sense/">economically questionable</a> carbon capture and storage technology. </p>
<p>The easiest option is to accelerate the transition away from existing coal power plants. In Queensland, it’s made easier because coal generators are owned by the state. </p>
<p>To achieve a 75% reduction target, the government’s clean energy agency, CleanCo, will have to be expanded substantially, and coal power put out to pasture faster than already planned.</p>
<p>If the state fully greens its power sector, that would remove <a href="https://www.stateoftheenvironment.des.qld.gov.au/pollution/greenhouse-gas-emissions#:%7E:text=In%202018%2C%20emissions%20from%20the,or%2045%25%20of%20total%20emissions.">45% of the state’s emissions</a>. </p>
<p>There are harder emissions to cut. It will need policies encouraging heavy industry to shift towards carbon-free energy sources such as electricity and hydrogen derived from wind and solar energy. The necessary technologies exist for industries such as steelmaking and cement, but have yet to be fully developed. </p>
<p>But the really hard challenge will be when new coal mines and gas fracking projects are proposed. </p>
<p>When buyers burn fossil fuels exported from Queensland, these emissions don’t count towards the state’s targets. But what does count are fugitive emissions of highly potent methane, which have been systematically underestimated. Using satellites, the International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-vastly-underreporting-methane-pollution-report-finds-20230704-p5dll7.html">has estimated</a> Australia’s methane emissions from coal mines to be 81% higher than official estimates, and 92% higher than official estimates of emissions from fracking and oil extraction. </p>
<p>Even by Queensland’s own conservative estimates, these emissions accounted for <a href="https://www.stateoftheenvironment.des.qld.gov.au/pollution/greenhouse-gas-emissions/fugitive-emissions-sector-greenhouse-gas-emissions">11% of the entire state’s total</a> in 2018. </p>
<p>Miles <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/steven-miles-guarantees-future-of-queensland-coal-mining-gas-production/news-story/cbe7fc1e6c85f17cd0a2f04a5773bdbc">has promised</a> new fossil fuel projects will be assessed on a case-by-case basis. </p>
<h2>What do we need the Commonwealth for?</h2>
<p>State ambition will take us a fair distance, but not the whole way. On electrification of transport, states will need the Commonwealth government to lead since vehicle standards are set nationally.</p>
<p>Queensland’s fresh ambition puts us in the paradoxical situation where all of Australia’s states are committed to doing more than the Commonwealth. That is, in part, because states are able to do more. </p>
<p>But with the next federal election less than two years away, a slump in the polls and a very thin record of policy achievements, we may yet see the Albanese government leave behind its timidity and take braver action. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-charts-in-australias-2023-climate-statement-show-we-are-way-off-track-for-net-zero-by-2050-218930">Two charts in Australia's 2023 climate statement show we are way off track for net zero by 2050</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220040/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority</span></em></p>Australia’s federal government has been hollowed out in recent decades. But states can – and still do – deliver. That’s why they are the main drivers of climate action.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199122023-12-18T19:10:06Z2023-12-18T19:10:06ZFrom laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now<p>For years <a href="https://priceofoil.org/2021/11/12/fossil-fuelled-five-report/">large fossil fuel producers</a> — <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-know-if-a-country-is-serious-about-net-zero-look-at-its-plans-for-extracting-fossil-fuels-170508">including Australia</a> — have <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/production-gap-report-2023">expanded</a> fossil fuel production while maintaining rhetorically that the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But global emissions are overwhelmingly caused by the extraction, transport and burning of fossil fuels. Unless fossil fuels are phased out, emissions will grow and the climate crisis will worsen.</p>
<p>At COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai, which wrapped up last week, this fact finally became the centre of attention. And fossil fuel producers were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/opec-chief-urges-members-reject-any-cop28-deal-that-targets-fossil-fuels-2023-12-08/">feeling the pressure</a> — forced to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/opec-members-push-against-including-fossil-fuels-phase-out-cop28-deal-2023-12-09/">defend their expansion of fossil fuels</a> or change their tune.</p>
<p>Interestingly, Australia seems to be doing the latter, at least rhetorically. While successive governments have <a href="https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/articles/extract/2021/07/double-game">worked assiduously</a> to keep fossil fuel production out of the spotlight at the UN talks, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-cop28-dubai-0">said</a> Australia supports the global phasing out of fossil fuels in energy systems by 2050. Clearly eager to avoid being seen as the villain at the talks, Bowen named Saudi Arabia as the main blocker to an agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.</p>
<p>But the text of COP decisions matters much less than the actions states and companies take. Australia — one of the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/P667-High-Carbon-from-a-Land-Down-Under-WEB_0_0.pdf">world’s largest producers and exporters</a> of fossil fuel-based carbon dioxide — is fuelling the problem, not solving it. Currently, Australian companies are moving to expand fossil fuel production: <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-major-projects-2022">more than 100 major coal, oil and gas projects</a> are in planning, at a cost of around A$200 billion. Some of these are “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2022/may/11/fossil-fuel-carbon-bombs-climate-breakdown-oil-gas">carbon bombs</a>,” likely to add huge quantities of emissions.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Why Australia faces charges of hypocrisy</h2>
<p>The Albanese government has already <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/ten-and-rising-albanese-government-new-fossil-fuel-approvals-unveiled/">approved</a> a number of new fossil fuel projects, <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/how-labor-out-loved-the-coalition-in-its-embrace-of-big-oil-and-gas/">embracing</a> the fossil fuel expansionism of its conservative predecessors. But now that Australia has declared support for a global phase-out of fossil fuels, it must curtail its own exports or face continued <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/19/missing-half-the-equation-scientists-criticise-australia-over-approach-to-fossil-fuels">charges of hypocrisy</a>.</p>
<p>How could Australia do that while managing the fallout? Interestingly, Bowen’s <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-cop28-dubai-0">rhetoric at COP</a> contained the seeds of an answer: a “phase out of fossil fuels is Australia’s economic opportunity as [a] renewable energy superpower”. In line with this sentiment, Australia should adopt the mission of leading the Asia-Pacific region to a prosperous future by simultaneously phasing out its fossil fuel exports while phasing up its clean energy exports; by becoming a <a href="https://www.bze.org.au/research/report/renewable-energy-superpower">clean energy superpower</a> instead of a dirty energy one.</p>
<p>Doing so would require a dramatic shift in Australia’s international climate posture: from a defensive, parochial, technocratic stance aimed at protecting fossil fuel expansion to proactive, outward-looking and pragmatic leadership; from merely focusing on its own territorial emissions to using all powers at its disposal in its <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/climate-policy-and-our-sphere-of-influence/">sphere of influence</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-fought-cop28-agreement-suggests-the-days-of-fossil-fuels-are-numbered-but-climate-catastrophe-is-not-yet-averted-219597">Hard-fought COP28 agreement suggests the days of fossil fuels are numbered – but climate catastrophe is not yet averted</a>
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<h2>First a new project ban, then a net zero plan</h2>
<p>Our coal and gas exports are entirely within our sovereign control, and give us enormous leverage over our regional trading partners. No one is suggesting stopping fossil fuel exports overnight. But we could start by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/21/the-latest-ipcc-report-makes-it-clear-no-new-fossil-fuel-projects-can-be-opened-that-includes-us-australia">banning new projects</a>, and then convening our regional partners to work out a plan to phase out existing production and consumption. Australian leadership would involve supporting our neighbours —through investment, trade and aid —to ensure their populations can access energy from zero-carbon sources, just as we’re aspiring to do at home.</p>
<p>Phasing out fossil fuel exports is thus best conceptualised as part of a shift in our foreign and trade policy aimed at securing our and our region’s prosperity against the existential threat of climate change — and amid a global pivot to clean energy. Call it “<a href="https://www.bze.org.au/research/report/laggard-to-leader#:%7E:text=Laggard%20to%20Leader%20is%20a,and%20accelerated%20through%20international%20cooperation.">cooperative decarbonisation</a>”. Viewed in this light, the typical objections to a fossil fuel phase-out in Australia look pathetic.</p>
<h2>The weak objections to a phase-out</h2>
<p>The first objection claims we are not responsible for the overseas emissions produced from burning our exported coal and gas. This falsely conflates Australia’s national interest in reducing emissions globally with its international legal responsibility for <a href="https://legalresponse.org/legaladvice/reporting-requirements-under-article-13-paris-agreement/">reporting emissions</a> locally.</p>
<p>Nothing in the Paris Agreement prevents a country from taking actions that would reduce or avoid emissions in another country. It is reckless and self-defeating to concern ourselves only with emissions produced on our territory when our power to influence global emissions is so much greater. Let’s hope that Bowen’s rhetorical shift at COP28 signals acceptance of this fact.</p>
<p>The second objection is that leaving our fossil fuels in the ground will not affect global emissions, because if we don’t sell our coal and gas, someone else will. Aside from its immorality (the “drug dealer’s defence”), the objection defies Economics 101: if you reduce supply of a product, its price goes up, causing demand to contract. Other countries might supply <em>some</em> of the shortfall, but Australia is such a big producer that it is implausible to think we could exit the coal and gas markets without dramatically reducing global emissions.</p>
<p>Moreover, it’s shortsighted to think of fossil fuel export policy in isolation from the wider foreign policy choices we face. Australia’s current foreign policy is to <a href="https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/articles/extract/2021/07/double-game">promote our coal and gas exports</a>: we literally pay public servants to help multinational companies sell more coal and gas. But if we gave our diplomats the nobler mission of leading our region’s decarbonisation, our leadership would help to make trade in fossil fuels redundant.</p>
<p>The last oft-heard objection is that phasing out fossil fuel production would cost too much. The foreign-owned corporations that produce most of our coal and gas <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/australia-wins-plaudits-for-move-on-multinational-tax-dodgers-but-much-more-is-needed-on-fossil-front/">pay little tax</a> and <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/employment-aspects-of-the-transition-from-fossil-fuels-in-australia/">employ relatively few people</a>, while capturing <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/P1378-Fossil-fuel-subsidies-2023-Web.pdf">billions of dollars in state and federal government subsidies</a>. Scaling up as a clean energy superpower could bring more economic growth, jobs and tax revenue than would be lost from fossil fuels — especially if we <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/a-real-plan-to-tackle-energy-prices-climate-and-the-budget/">taxed the fossil fuel industry properly</a> on its way out.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hyped-and-expensive-hydrogen-has-a-place-in-australias-energy-transition-but-only-with-urgent-government-support-219004">Hyped and expensive, hydrogen has a place in Australia’s energy transition, but only with urgent government support</a>
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<h2>Phase-outs can be done: lessons from overseas</h2>
<p>Denmark, France, Ireland and Costa Rica are <a href="https://beyondoilandgasalliance.org/">among a number</a> of countries that have foregone new fossil fuel exploration and production opportunities; others are <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/just-transition-examples">working to phase out existing</a> operations. Doing so is undoubtedly challenging: firms, workers and the communities in which fossil fuel operations are located understandably tend to resist policies that would close their industry.</p>
<p>But government support can smooth the transition. The Spanish government, for instance, negotiated a “just transition agreement” with unions and businesses to phase out coal mining, support affected workers and invest in their communities. My coauthors and I <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/how-to-get-coal-country-to-vote-for-climate-policy-the-effect-of-a-just-transition-agreement-on-spanish-election-results/25FE7B96445E74387D598087649FDCC3">found</a> this strategy actually increased the government’s vote share at a subsequent election in the coal regions.</p>
<p>A phase-out of fossil fuel production is <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/employment-aspects-of-the-transition-from-fossil-fuels-in-australia/">entirely feasible</a> for a country with our resources, skills and diverse economy. The standard objections provide fossil fuel companies, and the politicians they’ve captured, with convenient excuses for cashing in while the planet — and Australia — burns. It’s time, instead, for bold actions that lead us and our region to a prosperous, fossil-free future.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-deal-confirms-what-australia-already-knows-coal-is-out-of-vogue-and-out-of-time-219906">COP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fergus Green is affiliated with the Powering Past Coal Alliance - is a coalition of national and subnational governments, businesses and organisations working to advance the transition from unabated coal power generation to clean energy. He is a member of the Alliance's Just Transition Expert Group.</span></em></p>Australia supported a phase-out of fossil fuels at the recent UN climate summit but is still expanding coal and gas production. It’s a contradiction that threatens the planet. There is a better way.Fergus Green, Lecturer in Political Theory and Public Policy, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199062023-12-15T02:16:58Z2023-12-15T02:16:58ZCOP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time<p>At the COP28 climate summit in Dubai this week, nations <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-fought-cop28-agreement-suggests-the-days-of-fossil-fuels-are-numbered-but-climate-catastrophe-is-not-yet-averted-219597">agreed</a> to “transition away” from coal, oil and gas . After 30 years of COP meetings, the world has finally committed to weaning itself from these carbon-based drivers of climate change.</p>
<p>As Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/13/the-age-of-fossil-fuels-will-end-australias-chris-bowen-hails-cop28-agreement">told the media</a>, the deal “sends a signal to the world’s markets, investors and businesses that this is the direction of travel for countries right around the world.”</p>
<p>This COP statement is the first to name and shame <em>all</em> carbon-based fuels driving the climate crisis – not just coal, which has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-flinched-on-phasing-out-all-fossil-fuels-whats-next-for-the-fight-to-keep-them-in-the-ground-194941">mentioned</a> in previous COP agreements, but also oil and gas. </p>
<p>The deal is a collective global aspiration rather than a legally binding agreement. Even so, it should put an end to the idea that burning carbon – both in Australia and elsewhere – can continue on a significant scale beyond 2050. </p>
<h2>Renewables on the rise</h2>
<p>The statement on carbon-based fuels is significant, but largely symbolic. In Australia, coal as a fuel has long been on the way out. Improved domestic energy efficiency has <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-data/australian-energy-statistics/energy-consumption#:%7E:text=Australia%27s%20energy%20consumption%20fell%200.1,2021%2D22%20was%207%20PJ.">reduced energy consumption</a>, even as the economy has grown. Most of this has come at the expense of coal – a trend likely to continue as electricity generation moves further towards renewables. </p>
<p>As the below table shows, starting from a base of almost zero, solar and wind energy generation has risen at startling annual rates over the last decade: 30% for solar and 15% for wind. Although shares of total energy consumption are still fairly small, these growth rates imply solar and wind will generate more energy than coal by the end of the decade.</p>
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<p>Australia’s consumption of oil, mostly in the form of imported petrol and diesel fuel, has remained largely steady over the past decade. Successive federal governments have dithered on the transition to electric vehicles. But if Australia is to get anywhere near the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, it must now tackle the transport sector <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/transport#:%7E:text=Driving%20The%20Nation-,National%20collaboration%20on%20EVs,10%25%20of%20Australia%27s%20total%20emissions.">which in 2022</a> produced 19% of Australia’s emissions – more than half from passenger and light commercial vehicles.</p>
<p>Given the absence of a domestic motor vehicle industry in Australia, the current government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-charts-in-australias-2023-climate-statement-show-we-are-way-off-track-for-net-zero-by-2050-218930">inaction on electric vehicles</a> is surprising. It appears driven in part by a fear of populist campaigns by the Coalition and others about the effects on motorists. Who could forget claims in 2019 by then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison that electric vehicles would “end the weekend […] It’s not going to tow your trailer. It’s not going to tow your boat. It’s not going to get you out to your favourite camping spot” – claims since proven to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-utes-can-now-power-the-weekend-and-the-work-week-199600">incorrect</a>.</p>
<p>Also in play is the political lobbying power of the retail motor industry, backed by foreign car manufacturers keen to maintain a market for their remaining supply of petrol-driven vehicles.</p>
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<h2>The myth of carbon capture and storage</h2>
<p>The final text also called for the acceleration of “zero and low emission technologies”. Controversially, this includes removal technologies such as carbon capture and storage, which involves trapping, transporting and storing greenhouse gas emissions from facilities such as coal-fired power stations and gas plants.</p>
<p>The inclusion of this technology was criticised by many observers as a loophole which would allow polluting, inefficient industries to continue. But it is better understood as a symbolic sop to the coal, oil and gas industries, which have long pinned their hopes of staying in business on the idea of burying the carbon they emit. </p>
<p>In reality, carbon capture and storage is a <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/carbon-capture-and-storage-fuels-more-net-zero-fraud/">proven failure</a>. The Gorgon gas project on the Barrow Island nature reserve, off Western Australia’s Pilbara coast, has stored <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/world-s-biggest-carbon-storage-project-off-wa-coast-burying-only-a-third-of-what-it-promised-to-20231113-p5ejm4.html">barely a third</a> of the targeted amount of carbon, forcing the proponents to <a href="https://australia.chevron.com/news/2022/acquisition-and-surrender-of-offsets-complete#:%7E:text=PERTH%2C%20Western%20Australia%2C%2015%20July,facility%20over%20the%20five%2Dyear">buy carbon offsets</a> instead (themselves a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/24/carbon-offsets-are-a-licence-to-pollute">dubious option</a>). Similarly, the only operating project capturing emissions from a coal-fired power plant, at <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/carbon-capture-remains-risky-investment-achieving-decarbonisation">Boundary Dam in Canada</a>, has under-performed on carbon capture capacity by a huge margin.</p>
<p>So while carbon-capture is theoretically available as an option for new projects, in most cases it will prove either technically impossible or <a href="https://www.atse.org.au/news-and-events/article/does-ccs-make-economic-sense/">economically infeasible</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-utes-can-now-power-the-weekend-and-the-work-week-199600">Electric utes can now power the weekend – and the work week</a>
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<h2>Australia faces a choice on energy exports</h2>
<p>The COP28 statement’s call for an “urgent and equitable transition to renewable energy” presents opportunities for Australia. As Bowen <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/the-age-of-fossil-fuels-will-end-bowen-says-after-cop28-win-20231213-p5ercz">acknowledged</a>:</p>
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<p>Australia wants to be a renewable energy powerhouse, we want to create the energy for ourselves, and for our region and for the world […] The COP decision today gives us a very good ecosystem in which to develop that plan.</p>
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<p>But of course, “that plan” is totally inconsistent with the plans of the coal and gas industries, which are announcing <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-116-new-coal-oil-and-gas-projects-equate-to-215-new-coal-power-stations-202135">new projects</a> intended to operate well into the second half of this century. By <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/case-for-gas-as-transition-fuel-falling-apart-on-both-economic-and-environmental-costs/">backing</a> these projects, the federal government is essentially betting that the aspirations of the COP28 statement will turn out to be just wishful thinking, and that Australia can profit from a world of catastrophic global heating.</p>
<p>Australia must now decide what kind of energy superpower it wants to be: the home of a sustainable future, or the last refuge of coal and gas extraction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219906/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority</span></em></p>The deal is a global aspiration, not a legally binding agreement. But it should end the idea that burning carbon – in Australia and elsewhere – can continue on a significant scale beyond 2050.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196552023-12-14T14:10:46Z2023-12-14T14:10:46ZCOP28: Five major outcomes from the latest UN climate summit<p>The latest UN climate summit, COP28, was always going to be controversial. It was held in a state whose economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas – the United Arab Emirates. The summit president, Sultan Al Jaber, remains head of the <a href="https://www.adnoc.ae/">Abu Dhabi National Oil Company</a> and recently declared the UAE would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-saving-the-planet-cop28">double oil and gas output</a> this decade. </p>
<p>This was hardly the strong leadership to move away from fossil fuels that many had hoped for. More than 100,000 delegates were registered (twice as many as any previous COP) of which <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67607289">more than 2,000</a> were official representatives of fossil fuel companies. </p>
<p>But COP28 started well with <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/11/30/countries-pledge-400m-to-set-up-loss-and-damage-fund/">US$400 million</a> (£314 million) being announced on day one for more vulnerable countries to cope with climate disasters – and talk was all about a new climate agreement including the phasing out of all fossil fuels. </p>
<p>Now that the summit is over and the dust has settled, we examine the key outcomes.</p>
<h2>1. The end of fossil fuels?</h2>
<p>Perhaps surprisingly, this was the first COP to officially acknowledge that fossil fuels are the root cause of climate change. And it is worth remembering that fossil fuels were only first mentioned in an international climate agreement in <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-glasgow-climate-pact-171799">2021 at COP26</a> in Glasgow. Yet it still lacked ambition.</p>
<p>Most countries wanted a strong statement on phasing out or at the very least phase down (reducing) fossil fuels. Instead countries agreed a <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf">statement</a> saying we must “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”. </p>
<p>This language – a “transition away” rather than a full “phase-out” – is not as strong as many wanted. As a statement made by Samoa on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States put it, these decisions are “an incremental advancement over business as usual” when what is needed is “<a href="https://www.aosis.org/cop28-closing-plenary-aosis-statement-on-gst-decision/">exponential step-change</a>” to keep 1.5°C alive. </p>
<p>In theory the agreement heralds the end of the fossil fuel era, but it offers an intentional loophole for countries and companies to “abate” the use of fossil fuels by using carbon capture and storage. This justifies the continued burning of oil and gas.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-cop28-climate-agreement-is-a-step-backwards-on-fossil-fuels-219753">The COP28 climate agreement is a step backwards on fossil fuels</a>
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<h2>2. Loss and damage</h2>
<p>“Loss and damage” is the term given for finance for developing countries that have suffered a major climate change-related disaster. A fund was agreed at <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-will-be-remembered-as-a-failure-heres-what-went-wrong-194982">COP27</a> in 2022 and recent announcements mean US$700 million has now been pledged. </p>
<p>While this is welcome news it is a drop in the ocean compared with the <a href="https://www.lossanddamagecollaboration.org/pages/the-loss-and-damage-fund-and-pledges-at-cop28-shall-i-compare-thee-to-a-summers-day-or-to-the-annual-earnings-of-a-megastar-footballer">US$400 billion</a> actually needed. It’s also insignificant compared to, for instance, the estimated <a href="https://www.lossanddamagecollaboration.org/pages/the-loss-and-damage-fund-and-pledges-at-cop28-shall-i-compare-thee-to-a-summers-day-or-to-the-annual-earnings-of-a-megastar-footballer">US$7 billion</a> cost of building the COP28 venue Dubai Expo City.</p>
<p>It is still not clear how the fund will work, what the major funding streams will be or whether the allocation of finance will be community-driven and <a href="https://ucl.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.14324/111.444/000220.v1">corruption free</a>. And despite opposition, it has been agreed the <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/11/07/world-bank-to-initially-host-loss-and-damage-fund-under-draft-deal/">World Bank will administer the fund</a> for a negotiated fee of 24% – meaning one in four dollars pledged will never make it to the countries in need. </p>
<p>So overall, this summit did not deliver on climate finance and this key issue has been pushed to COP29 November 2024.</p>
<h2>3. Renewable energy and transitional fuels</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/over-110-countries-set-join-cop28-deal-triple-renewable-energy-2023-12-02/">pledge</a> signed by 118 countries to triple renewable energy capacity and double the global rate of energy efficiency by 2030 is a step in the right direction. </p>
<p>It is worth noting the text of the pledge also recognises the role “transitional fuels” will have in maintaining energy security for the time being. This makes the use of climate-damaging <a href="https://www.liquidgasuk.org/about/what-is-lpg">liquefied petroleum gas</a> acceptable. This isn’t ideal, but in developing countries it is still a <a href="https://theconversation.com/lpg-is-a-fossil-fuel-experts-explain-why-its-still-africas-best-option-for-cleaner-greener-cooking-for-now-197723">healthier and less polluting option</a> for home cooking and heating than burning wood or other biomass. Nonetheless, there really should be a timeline attached to the use of these transitional fuels. </p>
<p>On the sidelines of COP28, green hydrogen also had its moment. Produced through a process that splits water using electricity generated from wind or solar power, industries pledged to scale up zero-emissions fuel derived from renewables-based hydrogen to <a href="https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/maritime-green-hydrogen-call-to-action/">11 million tonnes by 2030</a>. </p>
<h2>4. Oil and gas decarbonisation charter</h2>
<p>Over 50 <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/the-oil-and-gas-decarbonization-charter-is-a-start-but-more-work-remains/">national and international oil companies</a>, representing about 40% of global production, signed a decarbonisation charter. The initiative sets three main aims: to achieve net zero emissions in each company’s direct operations (as opposed to the use of their products) by or before 2050, to achieve near-zero methane leakage from the production of oil and gas by 2030, and to achieve zero routine flaring (burning excess gas) by 2030. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Gas flare at an oil refinery" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565802/original/file-20231214-29-rzhsvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Gas flaring is a major environmental problem.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gas-flare-oil-refinery-kimanissabahmalaysia-35-652862932">hkhtt hj / shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The last two pledges are particularly important as methane is a very powerful (but short-lived) greenhouse gas and a quarter of all man-made methane emissions come from <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/the-oil-and-gas-industrys-methane-problem-in-four-charts/">oil and gas production</a>. So reducing these emissions is a quick win which buys us time. But again, 60% of world oil and gas production is not covered by this charter. These companies will continue to save money by venting methane and flaring natural gas. </p>
<h2>5. Global stocktake – 1.5°C is at risk</h2>
<p>The “global stocktake”, finalised at COP28, was the first time the global climate regime took stock of how the international community has collectively reduced its greenhouse gas emissions since the Paris Agreement in 2015. </p>
<p>The biggest takeaway from the stocktake told us what we already knew – the world is way behind and the 1.5°C warming limit agreed in Paris is at risk. </p>
<p>While the big takeaway from COP28 will be that countries have come up with a deal that calls for them to transition away from fossil fuels while acknowledging the need for a “deep, rapid” reduction in emissions, the weak language is at complete odds with the official global stocktake. </p>
<p>So what next? Well, another year of negotiation and pushing for countries to increase their ambition so net zero can be achieved by 2050 with increased financing. The next UN climate summit, COP29, will be <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/09/oil-reliant-azerbaijan-chosen-to-host-cop29-climate-talks/">in Azerbaijan</a>, another major oil and gas producer with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/azerbaijans-use-of-force-in-nagorno-karabakh-risks-undermining-key-international-norms-signaling-to-dictators-that-might-makes-right-214440">poor human rights record</a>, and one that is strongly influenced by Russia. </p>
<p>But the real challenge will be forcing countries to raise their commitment to cutting emissions so that the 1.5°C limit isn’t lost.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Maslin is the UNFCCC designated point of contact for UCL. He is co-director of the London NERC Doctoral Training Partnership and a member of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group. He is a member of the Sopra-Steria CSR Board, Sheep Included Ltd, Lansons and NetZeroNow advisory boards. He has received grant funding from the NERC, EPSRC, ESRC, DFG, Royal Society, DIFD, BEIS, DECC, FCO, Innovate UK, Carbon Trust, UK Space Agency, European Space Agency, Research England, Wellcome Trust, Leverhulme Trust, CIFF, Sprint2020, and British Council. He has received funding from the BBC, Lancet, Laithwaites, Seventh Generation, Channel 4, JLT Re, WWF, Hermes, CAFOD, HP and Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Priti Parikh is a fellow and trustee for Institution of Civil Engineers. She is aboard member for Happold Foundation and Engineers Against Poverty. Research funding sources include UKRI, Royal Academy of Engineering, Water Aid, British Academy, Bboxx Ltd, UCL, Royal Society and British Council. She is currently part funded by the Royal Academy of Engineering/Bboxx Research Chair fellowship. Her consultancy has received funding from AECOM, Cambridge Institute for Sustainable Leadership, Water and Sanitation for the Urban Poor, UNHABITAT, Arup, ITAD and GTZ</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Chin-Yee works with the World Bank, Global Maritime Forum and UN Foundation among others to foster green initiatives. He has previously held positions within the United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), as well being the Konrad Adenauer fellow (KAS) for the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security, King's College London and a researcher on an London School of Economics and Political Sciences collaborative project funded by the Arab Universities Programme, which is supported by the Emirates Foundation.</span></em></p>Weak language at COP28 is at complete odds with the officially-recognised science.Mark Maslin, Professor of Natural Sciences, UCLPriti Parikh, Professor of Infrastructure Engineering and International Development, UCLSimon Chin-Yee, Lecturer in International Development, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2197532023-12-13T19:00:23Z2023-12-13T19:00:23ZThe COP28 climate agreement is a step backwards on fossil fuels<p>The COP28 climate summit in Dubai has adjourned. The result is “<a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/">The UAE consensus</a>” on fossil fuels. </p>
<p>This text, agreed upon by delegates from nearly 200 countries, calls for the world to move “away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner”. Stronger demands to “phase out” fossil fuels were ultimately unsuccessful.</p>
<p>The agreement also acknowledges the need to phase down “unabated” coal burning and transition towards energy systems consistent with net zero emissions by 2050, while accelerating action in “the critical decade” of the 2020s. </p>
<p>As engineers and scientists who research the necessary changes to pull off this energy system transition, we believe this agreement falls short in addressing the use of fossil fuels at the heart of the climate crisis. </p>
<p>Such an approach is inconsistent with the scientific consensus on the urgency of drastically reducing fossil fuel consumption to limit global warming to 1.5°C.</p>
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<img alt="A power plant emitting smoke and steam." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565543/original/file-20231213-17-62e61q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Fossil fuel use is at the heart of the climate crisis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/power-plant-emitin-smoke-steam-1555865300">Peter Gudella/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>‘Abated’ v ‘unabated’</h2>
<p>The combustion of coal, oil and gas <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change#:%7E:text=Fossil%20fuels%20%E2%80%93%20coal%2C%20oil%20and,they%20trap%20the%20sun's%20heat.">accounts</a> for 75% of all global warming to date – and 90% of CO₂ emissions.</p>
<p>So what does the text actually ask countries to do with these fuels – and what loopholes might they exploit to continue using them well into the future?</p>
<p>Those countries advocating for the ongoing use of fossil fuels made every effort to add the term “unabated” whenever a fossil fuel phase-down or phase-out was proposed during negotiations. </p>
<p>“Abatement” in this context typically means using carbon capture and storage technology to stop CO₂ emissions from engines and furnaces reaching the atmosphere.</p>
<p>However, there is no clear definition of what abatement would entail in the text. This ambiguity allows for a broad and easily abused interpretation of what constitutes “abated” fossil fuel use.</p>
<p>Will capturing 30% or 60% of CO₂ emissions from burning a quantity of coal, oil or gas be sufficient? Or will fossil fuel use only be considered “abated” if 90% or more of these emissions are captured and stored permanently along with low leakage of “fugitive” emissions of the potent greenhouse gas methane, which can escape from oil and gas infrastructure?</p>
<p>This is important. Despite the agreement supposedly honouring “the science” on climate change, low capture rates with high residual and fugitive emissions are inconsistent with what research has shown is necessary to limit global warming to the internationally agreed guardrails of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. </p>
<p>In a 2022 <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">report</a>, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that almost all coal emissions and 33%-66% of natural gas emissions must be captured to be compatible with the 2015 Paris agreement. </p>
<p>That’s assuming that the world will have substantial means of sucking carbon (at least several billion tonnes a year) from the air in future decades. If these miracle machines fail to materialise, our research indicates that carbon capture would need to be <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4574502">near total on all fuels</a>.</p>
<p>The fact that the distinction between “abated” and “unabated” fossil fuels has not been clarified is a missed opportunity to ensure the effectiveness of the Dubai agreement. This lack of clarity can prolong fossil fuel dependence under the guise of “abated” usage. </p>
<p>This would cause wider harm to the transition by allowing continued investment in fossil fuel infrastructure – new coal plants, for instance, as long as some of the carbon they emit is captured (abated) – thereby diverting resources from more sustainable power sources. This could hobble COP28’s other goal: to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.</p>
<p>By not explicitly defining these terms, COP28 missed the chance to set a firm, scientifically-backed benchmark for future fossil fuel use.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A solar power farm against a clear blue sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565542/original/file-20231213-19-gml4jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Tripling renewable capacity by 2030 would require an annual growth rate of 17%.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/photovoltaics-solar-power-station-526996462">Soonthorn Wongsaita/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>The coming age of carbon dioxide removal</h2>
<p>Since the world is increasingly likely to overshoot the temperature goals of the Paris agreement, we must actively remove more CO₂ from the atmosphere – with reforestation and direct air capture (DAC), among other methods – than is emitted in future.</p>
<p>Some carbon removal technologies, such as DAC, are very early in their development and scaling them up to remove the necessary quantity of CO₂ will be difficult. And this effort should not detract from the urgent need to reduce emissions in the first place. This balanced approach is vital to not only halt but reverse the trajectory of warming, aligning with the ambitious goals of the Paris agreement.</p>
<p>There has only really been one unambiguously successful UN climate summit: Paris 2015, when negotiations for a top-down agreement were ended and the era of collectively and voluntarily raising emissions cuts began.</p>
<p>A common commitment to “phase down and then out” clearly defined unabated fossil fuels was not reached at COP28, but it came close with many parties strongly in favour of it. It would not be surprising if coalitions of like-minded governments proceed with climate clubs to implement it.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219753/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alaa Al Khourdajie is a lead author of UNEP's Global Environment Outlook, 7th Edition and a guest research scholar at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Austria.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lars J Nilsson is a passive member of the World Wild Fund for Nature (WWF) and the Swedish Association for the Conservation of Nature.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Bataille does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The distinction between ‘abated’ and ‘unabated’ fossil fuels is crucial, yet remains ambiguous.Alaa Al Khourdajie, Research Fellow, Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College LondonChris Bataille, Adjunct Research Fellow in Energy and Climate Policy, Columbia UniversityLars J Nilsson, Professor of Environmental and Energy Systems Studies, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195972023-12-13T10:05:18Z2023-12-13T10:05:18ZHard-fought COP28 agreement suggests the days of fossil fuels are numbered – but climate catastrophe is not yet averted<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565129/original/file-20231212-26-aauh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5565%2C3716&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As negotiators stagger towards their beds in Dubai and another year’s climate talks come to a close, it’s time to take stock. Did COP28 achieve the big breakthrough the world needs on climate change? </p>
<p>Probably not. But the final agreement – met with an ovation – includes a first call for nations to transition away from fossil fuels. It’s a step short of a commitment to phasing the fuels out, as some delegates had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/13/cop28-landmark-deal-agreed-to-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels">pushed for</a>. But the development suggests the days of fossil fuels are numbered. </p>
<p>The overriding question the world now faces is whether the broad commitments nations agreed to are enough as climate change gathers pace. The answer, alarmingly, is no.</p>
<h2>UAE: controversial hosts</h2>
<p>This year’s talks were controversial from the start. </p>
<p>The role of oil man Sultan Al Jaber as COP28 president fuelled concerns about the hosting role of the United Arab Emirates – a country with <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-inside-the-united-arab-emirates-the-oil-giant-hosting-2023-climate-change-summit-217859">significant interests</a> in sustaining a fossil fuel economy. Then came reports Al Jaber <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels">had questioned</a> the scientific rationale for phasing out fossil fuels to tackle climate change, amid reports of fossil fuel trade negotiations on the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67508331">sidelines of negotiations</a>). </p>
<p>On top of this, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67607289">unprecedented numbers</a> of fossil fuel lobbyists and geoengineering advocates attended the talks. This did not create the ideal conditions for action on climate change.</p>
<h2>‘Loss and damage’ breakthrough</h2>
<p>To their credit, the organisers had an early win with an agreement to establish a “loss and damage” fund whereby richer nations compensate poorer nations for the effects of climate change. The creation of this fund is one of the big outcomes of the talks. It’s taken a long time to get here, after initially being suggested by Vanuatu in 1991 and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-one-big-breakthrough-but-ultimately-an-inadequate-response-to-the-climate-crisis-194056">supported in principle</a> in last year’s talks in Egypt. </p>
<p>Why is it needed? Because developing states are particularly vulnerable to the damage done by climate change, and have limited ability to meet the cost of repair and rebuilding. The fund also points to the particular obligations of developed states and significant emitters who have largely caused the problem.</p>
<p>But there are still big questions about the measure – most importantly, how well it will be funded. Despite the fanfare, just US$700 million <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/700m-pledged-to-loss-and-damage-fund-cop28-covers-less-than-02-percent-needed">has been committed</a> so far to the fund aimed at compensating states for damage that, according to <a href="https://assets-global.website-files.com/605869242b205050a0579e87/655b50e163c953059360564d_L%26DC_L%26D_Package_for_COP28_20112023_1227.pdf">recent estimates</a>, already runs into the hundreds of billions per year. </p>
<p>There are also concerns over having the fund administrated by the World Bank, which has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/why-loss-and-damage-funds-are-key-to-climate-justice-for-developing-countries-at-cop28">questionable</a> environmental credentials and a patchy record on transparency.</p>
<p>Of course, the fund itself is an admission of failure. It’s needed only because the international community has failed to stop climate change from happening, and is unlikely to prevent it reaching dangerous levels. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-summit-just-approved-a-loss-and-damage-fund-what-does-this-mean-218999">COP28 climate summit just approved a 'loss and damage' fund. What does this mean?</a>
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<h2>Deckchairs on the Titanic?</h2>
<p>As the talks went on, they got harder. The tricky topic: fossil fuels. It may amaze outsiders, but this, the 28th annual climate talks, is the first time nations have directly addressed phasing out fossil fuels. Last year, nations agreed to accelerate the exit from coal – the dirtiest fuel – but said nothing of gas or oil. </p>
<p>For days, debate raged over whether to apply phrases such as “phasing out” or “phasing down” or the term “unabated” to fossil fuels. Even the word “could” became controversial, when tied to the suggestion countries <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/cop28-presidency-wants-historic-mention-fossil-fuels-text-up-nations-2023-12-12">might consider</a> limiting fossil fuel production and consumption. To victims of climate change, the arguments might look like rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic.</p>
<p>Some nations were prepared to acknowledge the need to eliminate fossil fuels. Others noted the need for a future transition without compromising their need to develop or earn export income. Still others suggested the effects of fossil fuels might be minimised through technologies such as carbon capture and storage. </p>
<p>All 198 participating countries needed to approve any final declaration. So you can see the difficulty in reaching consensus. </p>
<p>More than 100 countries <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/12/climate/cop28-climate-summit-agreement-tuesday/index.html">have pushed</a> for a global commitment to a total phase-out of fossil fuels. But nations that profit immensely from fossil fuels – such as Russia, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2023/dec/11/cop28-live-time-to-be-ambitious-says-president-as-summit-enters-final-days">opposed</a> any mention of fossil fuels in the final document. </p>
<p>The first draft of the declaration did not go down well.</p>
<p>Host negotiators attempted to broker a deal between the competing interests by omitting any reference to phasing “out” or “down”. Instead, they suggested countries “could” consider reducing production and consumption of fossil fuels. The compromise text produced by COP28 president Al Jaber and his team seemed to err on the side of fossil fuel interests. Despite this, the fossil fuel backers were still opposed. </p>
<p>Outcry was swift from advocates for strong climate action. The draft was labelled a “death certificate” by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/12/cop-28-australia-us-and-uk-say-they-wont-sign-agreement-that-would-be-death-certificate-for-small-islands">vulnerable small island states</a>, while a <a>withering attack</a> came from concerned states, NGOs and even states with patchier climate records such as Australia, the United States, Canada and Japan.</p>
<h2>An agreement - but is it enough?</h2>
<p>As talks extended well beyond the original deadline, it came as some surprise that the final document was endorsed <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-67674841">relatively swiftly</a>. </p>
<p>The final version was more strident on the contribution of fossil fuels to climate change, and some advocates saw this as a significant signal. It asserted that the transition from fossil fuels needed to take place quickly, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/13/cop28-landmark-deal-agreed-to-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels">though</a> “in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.</p>
<p>It says something about the glacial pace of climate talks since they began in 1992 that this is the first time the contribution of fossil fuels to climate change has ever been acknowledged in a final COP document. And here, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/12/why-implementation-matters-in-the-global-fight-again-the-climate-crisis">critics lamented</a> the lack of detail over how goals would be implemented or commitments realised. </p>
<p>The conference also delivered important commitments to tripling renewable energy, expanding nuclear power, and a new pledge to cut emissions from cooling technologies such as air conditioning, which will become increasingly important as the world heats up. The talks also saw recognition of the increasingly significant role of the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/food-and-agriculture">agricultural sector in contributing to climate change</a>.</p>
<p>But more must be done. In 2023, temperatures are already <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/digest/1.5-degrees-scientific-consensus#:%7E:text=On%20a%20monthly%20scale%2C%20it,expected%20to%20surpass%201.5%20degrees.">spiking past</a> the crucial threshold of 1.5°C. The global <a href="https://theconversation.com/uns-global-stocktake-on-climate-offers-a-sobering-emissions-reckoning-but-there-are-also-signs-of-progress-217093">stocktake</a> of emissions cuts released in advance of the talks shows our current efforts are not enough to stop further warming. Countries such as Australia advocated stronger language on ending fossil fuels while maintaining a steady pipeline of new fossil fuel projects at home. It’s little wonder, then, that the lead negotiator of the the Alliance of Small Island States said “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/13/cop28-landmark-deal-agreed-to-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels">the process has failed us</a>”.</p>
<p>In short, and despite the diplomatic achievement of an agreement that looked unlikely only hours earlier, it’s still hard to say the international community is taking this enormous challenge as seriously as it should.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/uns-global-stocktake-on-climate-offers-a-sobering-emissions-reckoning-but-there-are-also-signs-of-progress-217093">UN's 'global stocktake' on climate offers a sobering emissions reckoning − but there are also signs of progress</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219597/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>Yes, there was some progress at COP28. But the international community is not taking this enormous climate challenge as seriously as it should.Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183042023-12-12T17:30:58Z2023-12-12T17:30:58ZRiver deltas are threatened by more than climate change – leaving hundreds of millions of people at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564467/original/file-20231208-19-8nst7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C976%2C667&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Irrawaddy delta, Myanmar.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/river-delta-irrawady-that-flows-north-1013252395">lavizzara/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Perilously situated between rising sea levels and pressures from upstream lie coastal river deltas and their roughly half a billion inhabitants. These regions have played an important role in societal development since the last ice age, offering flat, fertile lands with abundant freshwater which are ideal for agriculture.</p>
<p>In recent times, coastal river deltas have become hubs of the global shipping trade, giving rise to fast-growing megacities such as Dhaka, Cairo and Shanghai. But these areas are now <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aab3574">under threat</a>. And not all of the blame can be placed on climate change. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001024">recent research</a> reveals that 49 deltas around the world, including the Nile, Mekong, and Mississippi are facing growing risks under all of the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/">IPCC’s future scenarios</a> for climate change and development. </p>
<p>Our analysis shows that certain risks are more critical to some deltas than others. These risks include land subsidence, increasing population density, intensive agriculture, ineffective governance and a lack of capacity to adapt.</p>
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<img alt="An aerial photograph of Dhaka." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564311/original/file-20231207-25-8vz549.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Dhaka was built on the Ganges river delta 400 years ago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dhaka-bangladesh-july-14-2023-birdseye-2331732691">Sk Hasan Ali/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Sinking land</h2>
<p>Sea level rise and its associated impacts, such as salinisation, are a key threat to deltas. But it’s not just the rising sea that creates such risks – deltas themselves <a href="https://theconversation.com/sea-levels-are-rising-fastest-in-big-cities-heres-why-157077">are sinking</a>. Our results show that land subsides as much as three times faster than sea level rise in deltas such as the Mekong in Vietnam and the Krishna and Godavari in India. </p>
<p>All land rises and falls as the Earth’s crust slowly changes shape. But, when land consists of a sediment pile hundreds of metres deep, as in some deltas, the process can happen much faster. The sediment particles compact together under the weight of everything on top (including cities), and when the water, or sometimes oil and gas, that naturally fills the spaces between particles is pumped out, the grains collapse on top of each other.</p>
<p>Land subsidence leads to relative sea level rise (the combination of the sea level rising plus the land sinking). This process can turn croplands salty, cause widespread flooding and, in extreme cases, lead to the loss of entire coastal areas. Research suggests that <a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesias-capital-jakarta-is-sinking-heres-how-to-stop-this-170269">around 25%</a> of the Indonesian capital Jakarta, which is built on low-lying land next to the sea, will be submerged in 2050.</p>
<h2>Population density and crop land use</h2>
<p>The Nile, Ganges and Pearl deltas are also among the most densely populated places in the world. China’s Pearl delta, in particular, is jammed with the megacities of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Foshan, which are together home to over 30 million people. Many deltas will become even more densely populated and urbanised over the coming decades.</p>
<p>Urban development prevents natural river flooding processes from <a href="https://theconversation.com/river-deltas-are-drowning-threatening-hundreds-of-millions-of-people-125088">delivering sediment</a> to deltas and maintaining the land’s elevation above the river channel and sea. This can cause delta land to sink relative to sea level at an even faster pace.</p>
<p>Deltas are also hugely important for food production. Irrigated agriculture occupies almost all of the Red delta in Vietnam, the Po in Italy and the Yangtze in China. If groundwater is pumped from aquifers to irrigate crops, then again these deltas will subside much faster.</p>
<p>Disrupted food production in these places could have dire consequences in the future – and not just for delta inhabitants. Vietnam is the world’s second-largest rice exporter and <a href="https://publicpartnershipdata.azureedge.net/gef/GEFProjectVersions/670110b7-0491-e911-a837-000d3a37557b_CEOEndorsement.pdf">almost all of that rice</a> comes from the Mekong delta.</p>
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<img alt="Aerial view of ripe rice fields in the Mekong delta countryside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564523/original/file-20231208-17-j63vqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Almost all of that rice exported from Vietnam comes from the Mekong delta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-ripe-rice-fields-noon-2216678845">Huy Thoai/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Capacity to adapt</h2>
<p>Delta countries have options when it comes to managing many of the risks they face – they are not simply at the mercy of large global greenhouse gas emitters. However, the readiness, capacity and effectiveness of governments to adapt to risks is low in many deltas. </p>
<p>This is particularly true for the Irrawaddy delta in Myanmar and African deltas including the Congo, Limpopo and Zambezi. The per capita GDP of the countries in these deltas is among the lowest in the world, as are indicators of <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators">government effectiveness</a> and <a href="https://gain.nd.edu/">readiness for adaptation</a>. </p>
<p>International support and cooperation can and should play a supportive role here. But this is no simple task. Developing countries require a substantial amount of funding to implement necessary adaptation measures. In fact, the adaption finance needs of developing countries are now <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023">ten to 18 times</a> as big as international public finance flows (funds that move between countries typically with the aim of supporting development).</p>
<p>And that’s just for adapting to climate change. The array of delta risks revealed by our analysis stretch far beyond the climate and require coordination from local to global scales.</p>
<h2>What’s the solution?</h2>
<p>Solutions must be developed that consider all of these risks. Efforts to limit climate change remain urgent, as does the regulation of groundwater and fossil fuel extraction from deltas. </p>
<p>Cities can be <a href="https://watersensitivecities.org.au/flood-resilience-2/">designed to be more resilient</a> against floods, while agricultural practices can be adapted to cope with risks. This may involve embracing methods such as aquaculture, cultivating salt-tolerant crops, or exploring <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-soils-saltier-forcing-many-farmers-to-find-new-livelihoods-106048">alternative farming approaches</a> that can accommodate flooding and delta sedimentation processes.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-soils-saltier-forcing-many-farmers-to-find-new-livelihoods-106048">Climate change is making soils saltier, forcing many farmers to find new livelihoods</a>
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<p>Engineered solutions, such as sea walls, will be required where other strategies are impossible. But these should not become the default approach. Above all, the development of solutions must be inclusive, involving not only experts but also local people, propelled by urgently needed government action and finance.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Scown receives funding from The Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (Formas). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frances Eleanor Dunn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The world’s coastal deltas are home to hundreds of thousands of people – but they’re now under threat.Murray Scown, Associate Senior Lecturer in Geography, Lund UniversityFrances Eleanor Dunn, Assistant professor, Utrecht UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.