tag:theconversation.com,2011:/es/topics/labour-force-10413/articlesLabour Force – The Conversation2024-01-25T16:08:07Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2190892024-01-25T16:08:07Z2024-01-25T16:08:07ZWomen still face gender inequalities at work post-pandemic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570242/original/file-20240118-17-dxb1tf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1535%2C26%2C4419%2C3961&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Women are still feeling the effects of COVID-19 , which resulted in job losses and reduced opportunities for women in the workforce.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/women-still-face-gender-inequalities-at-work-post-pandemic" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic brought the longstanding economic inequalities between women and men into sharp focus. From the onset of the pandemic, up until the summer of 2022, <a href="https://theconversation.com/women-are-struggling-to-regain-lost-ground-in-the-workforce-after-covid-19-192313">economic gender gaps continued to widen</a>. </p>
<p>Lockdowns and economic uncertainties created a perfect storm, leading to job losses and reduced opportunities for women in the workforce. The increased burden of caregiving responsibilities placed an additional strain on women, often forcing them to make difficult choices between their careers and family obligations. </p>
<p>The situation peaked in 2020 when <a href="https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/pandemic-threatens-decades-of-womens-labour-force-gains/">women’s workforce participation plummeted to levels not seen since the 1980s</a>. This decline marked a concerning setback in the progress women had collectively made in the workplace over the past few decades.</p>
<p>Now, looking back at how these gender inequalities have evolved since 2022, the overall picture is a bit more complex. The most recent data from <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410001701">Statistics Canada</a> shows that, while gender inequalities remain fairly large between women and men, there are also some exceptions.</p>
<h2>Inequality in the labour force</h2>
<p>Economists refer to people who look for paid work as being “in the labour force.” In terms of men and women who were looking for paid work in 2023, gender inequalities have not changed since the previous year.</p>
<p>Like in 2022, men are still more likely than women to be in the labour force in 2023. By November 2023, 71 per cent of men were looking for paid work, compared to only 61 per cent of women.</p>
<p>What accounts for this gender gap? Women’s absence in the labour force is often referred to as a personal choice for taking care of children. Many couples, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231205/dq231205a-eng.htm">faced with high childcare costs</a>, decide that one parent should stay home. Given that <a href="https://canadianwomen.org/the-facts/the-gender-pay-gap/">men’s take-home pay exceeds women’s</a>, this parent usually ends up being the mother in heterosexual relationships.</p>
<p>However, what is sidestepped in framing this as a choice are the broader societal conditions that contribute to this choice. Women’s absence from the labour force is often not a choice, but the result of factors outside their control. </p>
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<img alt="The silhouette of a woman sitting with her head resting against her hand while a toddler plays in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570233/original/file-20240118-27-mqijkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570233/original/file-20240118-27-mqijkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570233/original/file-20240118-27-mqijkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570233/original/file-20240118-27-mqijkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570233/original/file-20240118-27-mqijkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570233/original/file-20240118-27-mqijkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570233/original/file-20240118-27-mqijkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">While women leaving the workforce to take care of children is often framed as a personal choice, there are usually other factors at play.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>A good example is the high cost of childcare, which the federal government is trying to address with its <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/campaigns/child-care.html">$10-a-day childcare plan</a>. While some cities have seen childcare fees drop as a result, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10048549/canada-child-care-fees-report/">others are still falling short</a> of the federal government’s target.</p>
<p>Another contributing factor is the <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220125/dq220125a-eng.htm">undervaluation of professions that tend to consist primarily of women</a>, like nursing and care work, even though they provide services crucial for society, as anyone who has been to the emergency department knows. </p>
<h2>Gender and unemployment</h2>
<p>When it comes to unemployment, the gender gap has dramatically changed: fewer women were unemployed in 2023 than men. In November 2023, five per cent of women in the labour force were unemployed, compared to six per cent of men. </p>
<p>This is a reversal from 2022, when <em>more</em> women were unemployed than men. While a gender gap in unemployment still exists, it now favours women slightly.</p>
<p>Shifting focus to employed individuals and the gender gaps in both part-time and full-time employment, the data shows that men in the labour force are more likely to have full-time jobs than women. In November 2023, 82 per cent of men in the labour force worked full time, compared to slightly less than 72 per cent of women. </p>
<p>Men, like women, worked less full-time in 2023 than in 2022; however, the decrease in full-time work has been most pronounced for men. In August 2022, 84 per cent of men in the labour force held full-time jobs, compared to slightly more than 72 per cent of women. The gender gap in full-time work continues to favour men, although it is narrowing.</p>
<p>The opposite is true for part-time work — women continue to work part-time more than men, with 23 per cent of women working part-time, compared to 13 per cent of men. This is an increase from 2022, when 21 per cent of women and 10 per cent of men worked part-time.</p>
<p>Overall, the gender gap in part-time work continues to favour women: women are still more likely to work part-time than men. </p>
<h2>Burden of childcare</h2>
<p>Statistics Canada’s data on why people work part-time sheds light on the gender gap in part-time work. In November 2023, slightly less than 27 per cent of women aged 25 to 54 worked part-time because they cared for children, compared to only 4.5 per cent of men. </p>
<p>This gender gap has widened since August 2022, when nearly seven per cent of men worked part-time because of caregiving, compared to a bit more than 27 per cent of women. </p>
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<img alt="A middle-aged man washing dishes at a kitchen sink while holding a toddler in one arm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570219/original/file-20240118-23-ebhqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570219/original/file-20240118-23-ebhqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570219/original/file-20240118-23-ebhqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570219/original/file-20240118-23-ebhqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570219/original/file-20240118-23-ebhqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570219/original/file-20240118-23-ebhqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570219/original/file-20240118-23-ebhqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Only four per cent of men worked part-time because they care for children in 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>The slight drop in women working part-time due to caregiving could be explained by the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2021/12/a-canada-wide-early-learning-and-child-care-plan.html">Canada-wide Early Learning and Child Care Plan</a>, which made childcare more affordable.</p>
<p>Traditionally, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-elections-matter-national-child-care-plan-could-create-workplace-gender-equality-169307">social norms hold women, not men, as the primary caregivers</a>. These norms could explain why fathers, more than mothers, stop working part-time because of caregiving when affordable childcare becomes available. However, research is necessary to provide a definitive answer.</p>
<p>Policy interventions, workplace reforms and community support are pivotal in creating an environment that empowers women to participate in the workforce and men to participate in carework at home. </p>
<p>Initiatives that address the root causes of gender disparities, such as affordable childcare, can contribute to levelling the playing field. Moreover, workplaces can help level the playing field by <a href="https://www.concordia.ca/news/stories/2023/12/05/workplace-culture-is-preventing-men-from-taking-paternity-leave-writes-claudine-mangen.html">enabling and encouraging fathers to take paternity leaves</a>. By understanding the factors at play and actively working towards solutions, we can work towards addressing and rectifying gender inequalities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219089/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claudine Mangen receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>The most recent data from Statistics Canada shows that, while gender inequalities in the workplace remain fairly large between women and men, there are some notable exceptions.Claudine Mangen, RBC Professor in Responsible Organizations and Full Professor, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2211362024-01-19T10:04:37Z2024-01-19T10:04:37ZJobs in South Africa: the labour market is recovering from COVID – but unskilled and less educated people are still being left behind<p>For more than three decades the South African economy has had very high rates of joblessness. The country’s economy has been unable to create enough jobs <a href="https://www.ekon.sun.ac.za/wpapers/2022/wp032022/wp032022.pdf">for its growing army of workers</a>. This has partly been because of the <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1866&PPN=P0441&SCH=73565">stagnant economic growth rate</a> of only 1.7% during the 2010s (it was even lower at 0.9% in 2015-2019). </p>
<p>Another factor that limited the economy’s capacity to create jobs at a rapid enough pace to absorb new job seekers and previously employed people was the impact of restrictions imposed during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Compared with the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 the impact was much greater. Then about 600,000 jobs were lost in South Africa. During the COVID restrictions there were a staggering <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/business/416483/report-reveals-shocking-number-of-job-losses-in-south-africa-during-lockdown/">1.5 million job losses</a>.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0376835X.2023.2229875">examined</a> the labour market during the lockdown period. We compared the 2020 first quarter and 2022 second quarter data of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey data released by Statistics South Africa. 2020 first quarter was the last survey before the pandemic hit the country. The 2022 second quarter survey took place just before all the remaining lockdown restrictions were abolished.</p>
<p>To complement the findings of this study, we also analysed the most recently released 2023 third quarter survey data to find out whether the most vulnerable groups had recovered and whether their labour market outcomes had at least returned to the pre-COVID levels.</p>
<p>We found that the employment number (as per 2023 third quarter data) had recovered to its pre-pandemic levels. But, we found, this hadn’t been enough to keep up with the increase in the new working-age population joining the labour force. This finding is once again consistent with the performance of the labour market over the past 30 years. That is, job creation is not rapid enough to absorb all the job seekers.</p>
<p>We also found that most of the gains from the recovery had gone to semi-skilled and skilled workers, leaving out the unskilled and those without 12 years of schooling, who make up more than 40% of the labour force. These were people who took a big hit from the pandemic-related job losses. (For those without the school leaving qualification, in absolute terms there was still an increase of unemployment of over 200,000 after the lockdown restrictions were lifted.) </p>
<p>This is a repetition of the pattern over the last 30 years – that South Africa’s unskilled and less educated (without grade 12) are left behind in terms of job opportunities.</p>
<h2>Lockdown</h2>
<p>Employment dropped by 822,000 (from 16.42 million to 15.59 million) when comparing the 2020 first quarter (just before the start of the lockdown) and 2022 second quarter (the end of lockdown) period. The unemployment rate increased from 30.1% to 33.9%.</p>
<p>The demographic groups that suffered the most job losses included Africans aged 25-44 years without grade 12 and those previously involved in unskilled occupations. These include craft and related trades, elementary occupations and domestic workers.</p>
<p>During the same 2.25-year period, the number of unemployed rose by almost a million – from 7.07 to 7.99 million. In fact the 2022 second quarter total unemployment number of 7.99 million was the highest ever in the South African labour market. On the other hand, the unemployment rate increased from 30.1% to 33.9% (this rate was at its peak level of 35.2% during the fourth quarter of 2021).</p>
<p>African males aged 15-44 years who did not have post-secondary school qualifications and had no prior work experience suffered the greatest increase of unemployment.</p>
<h2>After lockdown</h2>
<p>We uncovered two encouraging findings in the latest <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P0211&SCH=73573">2023 third quarter data</a>.</p>
<p>First: employment increased to 16.78 million, which was higher than the 2020 first quarter (just before COVID) level of 16.42 million. </p>
<p>However, the 0.34 million employment growth was lower than the increase in the labour force (from 23.48 to 24.63 million – a rise of 1.15 million) during the same period.</p>
<p>The second encouraging finding was that the unemployment rate showed a gradual downward trend, dropping from the all-time high of 35.2% in the last quarter of 2021 to 31.9% in the third quarter of 2023. Nonetheless, the latter rate was still higher than the unemployment rate recorded before 2020 (below 30%).</p>
<p>In addition, 31.9% is still much higher than the key labour market goal of the New Growth Path. This was launched in <a href="https://www.gov.za/about-government/government-programmes/new-growth-path">November 2010</a>, and aimed at enhancing economic growth, employment creation and equity. The goal was to reduce the unemployment rate to 6% by 2030. </p>
<p>Given the dire and chaotic state of the economy during the lockdown, this 6% goal was unofficially and temporarily “put aside” without any official announcement. The goal nevertheless remains in place. But it’s a tall order.</p>
<p>South Africa’s unemployment rate would need to drop by about 3.7 percentage points per annum between 2023 and 2030 before the country would be able to achieve it. </p>
<p>It is obvious that this rapid decline is very unlikely to happen in the next seven years.</p>
<p>One worrying finding was that only a slight drop of total unemployment took place. The number remained very high in 2023 third quarter at 7.85 million. This is not far from the all-time high level of 7.99 million in 2022 second quarter.</p>
<p>This implies that despite job creation taking place again after the lifting of the lockdown restrictions, it was not great enough to absorb the more rapidly increasing labour force entrants. Thus unemployment increased. </p>
<p>This is what happened to the country’s labour market <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0376835X.2016.1203759">before COVID-19 took place</a>.</p>
<p>Lastly, between 2020 first quarter and 2023 third quarter, employment actually increased marginally by nearly 0.4 million. Most of the increase went to female Africans aged 45-54 years in the urban areas of two provinces: the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. They had the grade 12 secondary school leaving qualification (or more) and were involved in either high-skilled or semi-skilled occupations, in the finance and community, social and personal services industry categories. </p>
<p>This finding aligns with <a href="https://open.uct.ac.za/items/a3821a49-f3c8-43cd-bdd5-1d6f1f2493bd">structural change</a> in the country’s economy: highly educated and high skilled workers are of greater demand in the labour market.</p>
<h2>The road ahead</h2>
<p>The findings show that the South African labour market has moved on from its worst ever state, and that various aspects have been gradually improving. </p>
<p>However, two worrying – yet expected – findings are that unemployment levels remained high while most of the job gains post-COVID went to highly skilled and highly educated people. </p>
<p>The long-term challenge is how relatively less skilled and less educated people (some of whom suffered job losses during the lockdown period) can find work again (through greater promotion of informal entrepreneurial activities, for example). Otherwise they could end up as chronic unemployed who may not be employable in the long term.</p>
<p><em>This article is based on a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0376835X.2023.2229875">journal article</a> which the writers co-authored with Jade Botha, an economics master’s graduate at the University of the Western Cape.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Derek Yu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Africa’s challenge is how to break the cycle of people becoming locked in chronic unemployment who may not be employable in the long term.Derek Yu, Professor, Economics, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112772023-08-13T02:53:30Z2023-08-13T02:53:30ZWe can and should keep unemployment below 4%, say top economists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542107/original/file-20230810-27-i6hwim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C209%2C1819%2C764&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s leading economists believe Australia can sustain an unemployment rate as low as 3.75% – much lower than the latest Reserve Bank estimate of <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-dg-2023-06-20.html">4.25%</a> and the Treasury’s latest estimate of <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-05/drkennedy-abeaddress-230518.pdf">4.5%</a>. </p>
<p>This finding, in an Economic Society of Australia poll of 51 leading economists selected by their peers, comes ahead of next month’s release of a government <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/employment-whitepaper/tor">employment white paper</a>, and an expected direction from Treasurer Jim Chalmers that the Reserve Bank <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-about-to-set-its-first-full-employment-target-and-it-will-define-peoples-lives-for-decades-210783">quantify</a> its official employment target.</p>
<p>Asked what unemployment rate was most consistent with “full employment” under present policy settings, the 46 respondents who were prepared to pick a number or range picked an average rate of 3.75%.</p>
<p>The median (middle) response was higher, but still below official estimates – an unemployment rate of 4%.</p>
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<p>Significantly, only two of the economists surveyed picked an unemployment rate of 5% or higher, which is where Australia’s unemployment rate has been for most of the past five decades.</p>
<p>The 3.75% average implies either that the Reserve Bank and government have lacked ambition on employment for much of the past half-century, or that the sustainable unemployment rate has fallen.</p>
<p>Australia’s unemployment rate dived to 3.5% in mid-2022 and has remained close to that long-term low since.</p>
<p>The survey result suggests the government can lock in the present historic low and need not – and should not – allow unemployment to climb too far from its present rate.</p>
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<p>Many of the experts surveyed questioned the idea of a “magic number” or non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) used by the Treasury and the Reserve Bank as a guide to how low unemployment can go without feeding inflation.</p>
<p>Former OECD official Adrian Blundell-Wignall said the concept was not helpful “even in the short run, and certainly not the long run” because NAIRU kept changing depending on what else was going on in the domestic and global economy.</p>
<p>Any rate of unemployment would have a different implication for inflation depending on what the government was doing with tax and spending policy.</p>
<p>Geopolitical events and climate change have probably pushed up the rate of inflation to be expected from any given domestic unemployment rate.</p>
<h2>3.5% unemployment, yet falling inflation</h2>
<p>Craig Emerson, a former minister in the Rudd and Gillard governments, said NAIRU was best described as the lowest unemployment rate consistent with inflation not taking off. Given Australia’s inflation rate is now coming <a href="https://theconversation.com/underlying-inflation-has-slipped-below-6-but-is-the-slide-enough-to-stop-the-rba-pushing-up-rates-further-209852">down</a>, NAIRU is clearly below the present unemployment rate of 3.5%, he argued.</p>
<p>The University of Queensland’s John Quiggin said Australia can be considered to have full employment when the number of job vacancies matches the number of unemployed people. This is the case at present, suggesting “full employment” means an unemployment rate of 3.5%.</p>
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<p>Alison Preston from the University of Western Australia said industrial relations changes have given workers much less power to obtain higher wages than before, suggesting the “non-inflation accelerating rate of unemployment” was either lower than before or an irrelevant concept.</p>
<p>Curtin University’s Harry Bloch says there will always be a mismatch between the jobs on offer and the skills available – an academic can’t do the work of a plumber, or vice versa, for instance. But even so, he says it ought to be possible to get unemployment down to the 2% achieved repeatedly during the 1950s and 1960s.</p>
<p>Consulting economist Rana Roy says in normal times “full employment” probably meant an unemployment rate near 1%, but the business cycle meant there would always be brief – “and I stress brief” – periods when governments might have to accept an unemployment rate of nearer 2%. </p>
<h2>Fix education, job-matching and childcare</h2>
<p>Asked to select the three measures from a list of 11 that would do the most to bring down the sustainable rate of unemployment, the 51 experts overwhelmingly backed improving the quality of school education (55%), followed by improving employment services (39%) and cutting out-of-pocket childcare costs (39%).</p>
<p>There was also strong support for relaxing industrial relations to give employers greater flexibility (33%) and winding back taxes and regulations facing businesses (24%) as well as boosting enrolments in tertiary education (27%).</p>
<p>There was very little support for cutting immigration or the JobSeeker payment.</p>
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<p>Labour market specialist Sue Richardson said a high-quality job-matching service would both reduce unemployment and boost productivity because Australians would be matched to jobs for which they were best suited. </p>
<p>The unemployed who would benefit the most would be those further down the queue who were the least successful in finding jobs.</p>
<p>Industry economist Julie Toth said digital technologies and working from home were already making it easier to match Australians with jobs across a range of industries, and it was important to preserve these recent gains.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-about-to-set-its-first-full-employment-target-and-it-will-define-peoples-lives-for-decades-210783">Australia is about to set its first full employment target – and it will define people's lives for decades</a>
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<p>One of the panellists, Peter Tulip from the Centre for Independent Studies, rejected all the options offered for lowering the achievable unemployment rate, and said the only one that might have some effect was restraint when increasing minimum wages.</p>
<p>Another, Brian Dollery from the University of New England, said much of Australia’s unemployment had been generated by unemployment benefits that were too high.</p>
<p>Together, the results of the survey call for the government and the Reserve Bank to be ambitious about unemployment, and not to accept a rate above 4%.</p>
<p>The government’s employment <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/employment-whitepaper/tor">white paper</a> is due by the end of September.</p>
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<p><em>Individual responses. Click to open:</em></p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-898" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/898/1ff41da9f14a6f9b0f29d0716f673f7c1662db3f/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211277/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Treasury and RBA believe Australia’s sustainable rate of unemployment is above 4%, but Australia’s leading economists think 3.75% is possible long-term, and have ideas about how to achieve it.Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2098352023-07-20T07:01:46Z2023-07-20T07:01:46ZUnemployment is staying low at 3.5%. But for those out of work, here’s why it’s become harder to get a job<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538460/original/file-20230720-23-eivlus.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=221%2C129%2C1695%2C934&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Slower employment growth, faster population growth and a steady rate of unemployment are the main stories from the Bureau of Statistics’ <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">labour force</a> update, released on Thursday.</p>
<p>Employment climbed by 32,600 between May and June, while the population grew 49,900. The rate of unemployment (happily) remains fixed at 3.5 per cent, although to two decimal places, it fell from 3.55% to 3.47%. </p>
<p>This story isn’t new. The waning of the Delta wave of COVID-19 from late 2021 brought a strong recovery in the demand for workers. Even after the immediate bounce-back from lockdowns, employment grew impressively. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-on-the-brink-of-ending-interest-rate-hikes-and-an-economic-first-beating-inflation-without-a-recession-209877">Australia is on the brink of ending interest rate hikes and an economic first – beating inflation without a recession</a>
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<p>In the nine months from November 2021, total employment increased by an average of 55,000 per month – double the 20,000 to 30,000 common before COVID.</p>
<p>Thereafter, employment growth has grown more slowly, by an average of 35,600 per month since August 2022.</p>
<p>Population growth has climbed as employment growth has slowed. During the nine months to August 2022, in which major restrictions on immigration remained, it averaged 37,200 per month. </p>
<p>After that time, with those restrictions removed, population growth averaged 50,300 per month.</p>
<h2>Who is getting work has been changing</h2>
<p>Mid-2022 didn’t just mark a change in the pace of employment growth. It also marked a shift in the <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2759/lmsjun23.pdf?1689836430">sources of employment growth</a>.</p>
<p>Up to August 2022, extra workers had been drawn from unemployment and from new entrants joining the labour force, as well as from population growth.</p>
<p>But since August 2022, employment growth has come almost entirely from population growth. The rates of unemployment and of labour force participation have remained largely constant.</p>
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<h2>Why unemployment didn’t jump</h2>
<p>A combination of slowing job growth and faster population growth ought to have pushed up the unemployment rate. But so far that hasn’t happened. </p>
<p>Having hit a low of 3.5% in August 2022, unemployment has stayed there pretty much the whole time since.</p>
<p>The reason is our record level of job vacancies. Fewer new jobs are being created, but an unusually high number of vacancies is keeping demand for workers high.</p>
<p>New entrants to the labour force have been able to take up those vacancies, rather than becoming unemployed.</p>
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<h2>Where population growth coming from</h2>
<p>The higher rate of population growth is coming from increased immigration, a term that encompasses international students and working holidaymakers.</p>
<p>Net overseas migration (the extent to which arrivals exceed departures) averaged 23,270 per month in the first half of 2022, and then 35,200 in the second half.</p>
<p>A big part of the growth is from the return of international students and working holidaymakers.</p>
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<p>Unsurprisingly, the biggest reductions in job vacancies came in the occupations where these temporary visa holders make up the largest shares of the workforce.</p>
<p>Since mid-2022, the vacancy rate for food trades workers has fallen from 4.4% to 3.0%, the largest fall by far of any occupation group. </p>
<p>Vacancy rates for hospitality and food preparation workers have each fallen by about three quarters of a percentage point.</p>
<h2>Where to from here</h2>
<p>Continued (now modest) growth in new job creation, together with the huge backlog of vacancies, might well allow the rate of unemployment to remain around its current level – even with a high rate of population growth.</p>
<p>Whether that does indeed happen depends on how future growth in new jobs is affected by actions of the Reserve Bank aimed at dampening economic growth.</p>
<p>So far, these actions have slowed the jobs market, but haven’t sent it into a tailspin. </p>
<p>Whether that remains the case will be the story to watch in the coming months.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209835/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>While fewer new jobs are being created, an unusually high backlog of vacancies is keeping demand for workers high. But over the past year, we’ve seen a shift in who is being hired.Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2054602023-05-28T11:32:25Z2023-05-28T11:32:25ZHow smaller cities can integrate newcomers into their labour markets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526829/original/file-20230517-17-yl005a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C931%2C8640%2C4798&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New Canadians take the Oath of Citizenship during halftime at a Redblacks and Montréal Alouettes CFL game in Ottawa in July 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2022, Canada’s population grew by a million people. Nearly all this growth — a whopping 96 per cent — <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230322/dq230322f-eng.htm">came from immigration.</a> </p>
<p>That’s one million new people who need housing, education, health care and employment. <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-310-x/98-310-x2011003_1-eng.cfm">The last time Canada saw such a level of growth was 1957</a>, during the post-war baby boom.</p>
<p>It’s no secret that Canada is a nation open to immigrants. Our active immigration and refugee process and welcoming attitude are baked into our national reputation. Multiculturalism is enshrined in federal policy and the cultural mosaic is touted as our model for integrating newcomers. </p>
<p>It’s also clear Canada depends on immigration to drive population and economic growth. Like many high-income countries, <a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/960-fewer-babies-born-canadas-fertility-rate-hits-record-low-2020">birth rates here are far below replacement levels as families are choosing to have fewer children.</a></p>
<p>This, coupled with an aging population and a pandemic that closed borders and slowed migration, has created <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220621/dq220621b-eng.htm">critical labour shortages</a> nationwide. </p>
<h2>Matching jobs with skills</h2>
<p>The federal government’s economic recovery strategy relies heavily on increasing immigration targets.</p>
<p>The goal is to admit <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2023-2025.html">500,000 new immigrants annually by 2025</a>, more than 60 per cent of whom will be economic applicants. An <a href="https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p3VD.pl?Function=getVD&TVD=323293&CVD=323294&CLV=0&MLV=4&D=1">economic applicant</a> is someone who’s been selected for their occupational skills, experience and ability to contribute to Canada’s economy. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-problem-with-immigration-targets-theyre-guesstimates-easily-misunderstood-by-the-public-197309">The problem with immigration targets: They're 'guesstimates' easily misunderstood by the public</a>
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<p>Canada’s approach to labour migration sounds good in theory: select the most talented applicants and offer them one-way tickets to a welcoming country with bountiful jobs and endless opportunity. </p>
<p>But there’s one problem. Newly arrived immigrants typically struggle to find employment that matches their skills and qualifications. Research shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/ces.2022.0010">many end up working in precarious jobs</a> characterized by low wages, irregular hours and unstable contracts. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526828/original/file-20230517-23-d8dno6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bearded man in a dark blue suit gestures as he speaks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526828/original/file-20230517-23-d8dno6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526828/original/file-20230517-23-d8dno6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526828/original/file-20230517-23-d8dno6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526828/original/file-20230517-23-d8dno6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526828/original/file-20230517-23-d8dno6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526828/original/file-20230517-23-d8dno6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526828/original/file-20230517-23-d8dno6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Immigration Minister Sean Fraser rises during Question Period in Ottawa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
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<p>Yet, if executed well, Canada’s ambitious immigration plan could benefit smaller communities and local employers desperately seeking workers. </p>
<p>In our recent study published in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12833"><em>The Canadian Geographer</em></a>, we showed that more immigrants are settling in small and mid-sized communities than in Canada’s largest metropolitan areas of Toronto, Vancouver and Montréal. </p>
<p>How do smaller urban areas ensure the economic integration of newcomers? To answer this, we focused our research on the city of Guelph, Ont., that has one of the <a href="https://www.therecord.com/local-guelph/business/2022/08/08/guelph-area-unemployment-rate-hits-lowest-point-since-2019.html">lowest unemployment rates</a> in the country. </p>
<h2>Driven by local industry</h2>
<p>Interviews with local service providers and employers in the city revealed that anyone who wants a job can get one. But as our research showed, the type and quality of jobs available were low-skilled and less desirable to the highly educated, highly skilled immigrants Canada typically admits annually. </p>
<p>Employment in small and mid-sized cities is largely driven by local industry, which varies depending on the region. In Guelph, it’s manufacturing; in Brandon, Man., it’s wheat; in Prince George, B.C., it’s forestry, and in Pictou County, N.S., it’s mining. </p>
<p>So, while there may be many jobs available, the sectors and locations of those jobs may not align with the skills, qualifications and work preferences of newcomers to Canada. One way to bridge this gap is through regional economic immigration programs such as the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2023-2025.html">PNP allows provinces and territories</a> to select a specific number of immigrants to meet their local labour market needs. In 2023, close to one-quarter of anticipated immigrants are allocated to the PNPs. </p>
<p>Immigrants applying to the PNPs are awarded higher points for in-demand occupations and are nominated for permanent residence by the province or territory. As part of the program, immigrants must indicate they intend to work and reside in that province. </p>
<p>The impact of the PNPs has been <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/ircc/documents/pdf/english/evaluation/execsum-e1-2015-pnp-en.pdf">evaluated over time </a> and the outlook for participating immigrants is promising. The challenge for cities will be to retain newcomers once they arrive. </p>
<p>Studies show that <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-how-welcoming-are-communities-to-immigrants-researchers-design-a-new/">communities that have meaningful employment opportunities</a> fare better at attracting immigrants. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A family of four holds up their citizenship certificates and smiles for a photo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526825/original/file-20230517-25-xdku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C242%2C4870%2C2725&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526825/original/file-20230517-25-xdku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526825/original/file-20230517-25-xdku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526825/original/file-20230517-25-xdku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526825/original/file-20230517-25-xdku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526825/original/file-20230517-25-xdku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526825/original/file-20230517-25-xdku5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A Haitian family poses for a photo after becoming new Canadians following a citizenship ceremony on Parliament Hill in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Supporting skilled newcomers</h2>
<p>There is no disputing that our existing labour supply is being diminished by economic growth, aging populations and a low birth rate. In 1980, for every one retiree there were six workers. By 2036, there will be only <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2019001/article/00004-eng.htm">three workers for every retiree</a>. </p>
<p>Canada’s response has been to boost immigration levels significantly. For that to be effective, we need integration policies that support skilled newcomers and a well-funded settlement sector that can keep pace with the entry of newcomers across all cities – large and small. </p>
<p>We also need governments to invest in better infrastructure, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canadas-housing-and-immigration-policies-are-at-odds/">including housing</a> and improved health care capacity. </p>
<p>Smaller urban communities can help by taking pressure off the most heavily populated regions. With better alignment between policy and reality, immigrant employment experiences can improve over time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205460/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Baumann receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Margaret Walton-Roberts receives funding from SSHRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Newbold and Mary Crea-Arsenio do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canada is counting on immigrants to drive economic growth. Smaller urban communities can help take pressure off Canada’s most heavily populated regions by attracting and retaining newcomers.Mary Crea-Arsenio, Senior Research Associate, Global Health, McMaster UniversityAndrea Baumann, Associate Vice-President, Global Health, McMaster UniversityBruce Newbold, Professor of Geography, McMaster UniversityMargaret Walton-Roberts, Chair professor, Geography and Environmental studies, Wilfrid Laurier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2016252023-03-28T18:08:26Z2023-03-28T18:08:26ZAhead of the game or falling behind? Canada’s readiness for a borderless, global workforce<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517455/original/file-20230324-22-e97j49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=362%2C6%2C4098%2C2445&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With geographic proximity no longer being a precondition of employment, the 2020s could see a shift in jobs being parcelled out to the best and most affordable talent, regardless of location.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ahead-of-the-game-or-falling-behind-canada-s-readiness-for-a-borderless--global-workforce" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Three years ago, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200417/dq200417a-eng.htm">nearly five million Canadians</a> suddenly shifted to working remotely at the outset of the pandemic. While some workers have returned to in-person work, <a href="https://fsc-ccf.ca/research/the-shift-to-remote-work/">many are still in remote positions</a>.</p>
<p>The full impacts of this experience are still being understood. In a <a href="https://www.csagroup.org/article/public-policy/out-of-office-the-public-policy-implications-of-remote-work/">new report</a> for the <a href="https://www.csagroup.org/public-policy/">CSA Public Policy Centre</a>, where I hold an executive position, I explored several policies affected impacted by remote work, including housing, productivity and inclusion.</p>
<p>The report found that remote work could have far-reaching impacts on many areas, including helping Canada meet its climate change goals. If all workers who could work remotely did so, it would be the equivalent of eliminating the carbon footprint of roughly 600,000 Canadians.</p>
<p>But one area that has received less attention is how Canada can prepare itself to compete in an increasingly globalized labour market. Firms now understand that geographic proximity is not a precondition of employment. Many companies, such as <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9171987/tech-companies-offices/">Shopify</a> and <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/28/airbnb-commits-to-fully-remote-workplace-live-and-work-anywhere/">Airbnb</a>, have shifted to remote and hybrid operations as a result of the pandemic. </p>
<p>In the same way that <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-001-x/2009102/article/10788-eng.htm">manufacturing jobs shifted to lower-cost jurisdictions</a> in the early 2000s, the 2020s could be the decade that sees white-collar jobs being parcelled out to the best and most affordable talent, regardless of location.</p>
<h2>A borderless global workforce</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/business/economy/jobs-offshoring.html">Cultural norms are often cited as a reason why knowledge work</a> (i.e., professional, management and technical occupations) cannot easily be offshored. An auto assembly worker need not be fluent in English, for example, but a lawyer or accountant must skillfully navigate complex workplace environments. </p>
<p>Yet, in a world where everyone is consuming the same content on Netflix and can leverage ChatGPT to draft conversational emails, the cultural gaps between Calgary, Krakow and Mumbai are narrower than ever.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An open laptop with a virtual meeting taking place on it seen from over someone's shoulder." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Many companies have shifted to remote and hybrid operations as a result of the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Capital is highly mobile today and <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/innovation-and-growth/superstars-the-dynamics-of-firms-sectors-and-cities-leading-the-global-economy">superstar firms, ranging from Amazon to Alphabet to Apple,</a> have already shown their willingness to shop around for the most business-friendly tax and regulatory regimes.</p>
<p>There is little reason to believe that labour will be any different. What does this mean for Canada? A shift towards a more distributed, borderless global workforce will not necessarily lead to job losses for Canada, but it will be disruptive and lead to transitions both within sectors and for workers. </p>
<h2>Winning over remote workers</h2>
<p>How can Canada ensure its workers have the right skills to compete and win globally? We need to adopt a two-track approach that focuses both on making Canada a source of talent for global firms, and a preferred homebase for firms and in-demand knowledge workers.</p>
<p>In the face of a rapidly changing employment landscape for workers wrought by technological change, Canada needs to increase both the amount spent on training and labour market supports, as well as the effectiveness of those expenditures.</p>
<p>Historically, Canada has <a href="https://data.oecd.org/socialexp/public-spending-on-labour-markets.htm">spent only one-third as much as Denmark has on labour market supports</a> such as upskilling and re-training. <a href="https://www.star.dk/en/about-the-danish-agency-for-labour-market-and-recruitment/flexicurity/">Denmark’s generous Flexicurity model</a> is often held up as a model of effective labour market policy.</p>
<p>Canadian firms don’t fare much better than governments do in preparing workers for disruption, <a href="https://fsc-ccf.ca/research/employer-sponsored-skills-training/">spending only an average of $240 per employee</a> on training annually.</p>
<h2>Social infrastructure needed</h2>
<p>In a world of increasingly mobile firms and workers, <a href="https://theconversation.com/immigrants-could-be-the-solution-to-canadas-labour-shortage-but-they-need-to-be-supported-194613">we need to double-down on the social infrastructure</a> that will attract the best and the brightest employees. </p>
<p>Safe communities, diversity and tolerance, strong public health care and education systems and thriving cities are all critical ingredients in this regard. <a href="https://theconversation.com/pandemic-education-crisis-canada-is-failing-to-tackle-lost-year-in-k-12-education-165348">Some of these systems</a> have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-looming-health-care-crisis-a-shortage-of-health-workers-would-be-disastrous-152709">significantly strained during the pandemic</a>, and will require focused resources and policy attention to rebuild. </p>
<p>Delivering more affordable housing might stand atop the list of issues that will be key to attracting and retaining remote workers — a <a href="https://www.csagroup.org/wp-content/uploads/CSA-RemoteWork-ResearchReport-EN_Accessible-Updated.pdf">December 2022 survey by the CSA Public Policy Centre</a> found that 71 per cent of Canadians would consider moving to communities with lower costs of living for a remote role.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-pushing-canadians-out-of-cities-and-into-the-countryside-144479">The coronavirus pandemic is pushing Canadians out of cities and into the countryside</a>
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<p>The high costs of living in cities like Toronto and Vancouver, where typical home ownership costs <a href="https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/homebuyer-blues-dreadful-affordability-gets-worse-in-canada/">chew up over 85 per cent of median household income</a>, could be a deal-breaker for many workers with more affordable options available to them.</p>
<p>Succeeding in the global war for talent will boost the prospects of economic growth in the years to come. As the world’s labour market flattens, Canada has an opportunity to stand out with a thoughtful approach that emphasizes skills and builds upon our quality-of-life strengths.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201625/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sunil Johal is currently a member of the Expert Panel on Portable Benefits providing advice to the Ontario government on the design and implementation of a portable benefits program and a member of the Expert Panel providing the City of Toronto with advice on its Long Term Financial Plan.</span></em></p>A shift towards a more distributed, borderless global workforce will not necessarily lead to job losses for Canada, but it will be disruptive and require restructuring in the labour market.Sunil Johal, Professor in Public Policy and Society, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2018592023-03-16T05:16:18Z2023-03-16T05:16:18ZUnemployment rate back down to 3.5%. It’s anyone’s guess when things will turn<p>The latest labour force data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows employment in February increasing by 64,600, and the (seasonally adjusted) unemployment rate declining from 3.7% to 3.5%. </p>
<p>It’s confirmation that it’s still too early to declare that the labour market has reached a turning point, after which we can expect the rate of unemployment will rise for some time. </p>
<p>Employment growth has been slowing over the past year, but ups and downs from month to month make it difficult to work out how fast that is happening. Meanwhile, the rate of unemployment is stubbornly resisting moving too far from 3.5%. </p>
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<h2>Predictions have been hard</h2>
<p>Making any predictions for the labour market since mid-2022 has been more difficult than usual. </p>
<p>In the first six months of 2022, employment grew by 56,600 per month, while the rate of unemployment fell from 4.2% to 3.5%. But for the next three months, average employment growth was only 11,700, and the unemployment rate ticked up slightly. It looked like, maybe, the end of the expansion.</p>
<p>But no. In the months to October and November, employment growth was back to 47,700 a month, and the jobless rate moved down.</p>
<p>December and January brought decreases in employment. But it’s always difficult to draw predictions from these months. This year’s January numbers also came with <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/insights-job-attachment-january-2023">an asterisk</a> from the Australian Bureau of Statistics: a much larger number of persons than usual were classified as waiting to start work, raising the prospect of a healthy boost in employment in February, which is what has happened.</p>
<p>So if a labour market slowdown is underway, it is gradual and slow, rather than the “falling off a cliff” variety. For that reason, it’s likely to take a while longer to know exactly where we are heading.</p>
<h2>But more young people are in jobs</h2>
<p>Not everything about the labour market is unpredictable, however. On the contrary, most of the changes we’ve seen since mid-2021, once the Australian labour market started recoverng from the initial impact of COVID-19, are exactly what we would have expected.</p>
<p>When the labour market is growing strongly, we expect this will benefit most of the groups who usually face the biggest difficulties getting into work: those with lower skill levels, who live in regions with less employment opportunities, and young people. This is <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1c2ciDez0TtUVM3vBD1e8oqh2I6BZwt2_/view">indeed what has happened</a>.</p>
<p>The likelihood of those without a post-school qualification being employed has increased 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2022, double the 1-point increase for those with a Bachelor’s degree or above.</p>
<p>In the 25% of regions with the lowest rates of employment, the proportion with jobs in 2022 was 2.2 percentage points higher than 2019. That increase was about three times more than in the 25% of regions with the highest employment rates.</p>
<p>Since immediately before the onset of COVID, the proportion of people aged less than 25 in employment has grown by 6.3 percentage points, compared with a 1.9 percentage point increase for those aged 25 to 64 years.</p>
<h2>And educational enrolments have fallen</h2>
<p>For the young, there has been another consequence of the strong labour market that we’ve learned to expect: more in jobs means <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hAYu8Np3CypqAuHdot3dF2Bp9STLqAk7/view">fewer studying</a>. Between February 2021 and December 2022 the proportion of those aged 15-24 in full-time tertiary education fell from 24.3% to 21.6%. </p>
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<p><strong>Employment vs education</strong></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515706/original/file-20230316-249-mtdkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515706/original/file-20230316-249-mtdkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515706/original/file-20230316-249-mtdkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515706/original/file-20230316-249-mtdkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515706/original/file-20230316-249-mtdkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515706/original/file-20230316-249-mtdkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515706/original/file-20230316-249-mtdkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515706/original/file-20230316-249-mtdkrg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Proportion employed vs proportion in full-time tertiary education.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">ABS Labour Force</a></span>
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<p>A <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2019/sep/education-choices-and-labour-supply-during-the-mining-boom.html">similar withdrawal was observed</a> in the late 2000s, during the mining boom, in the states of Western Australia and Queensland.</p>
<p>It’s having this past experience to draw on that, of course, makes it easier to see patterns in the impact of recovery, than to know where the rate of unemployment is about to head in coming months.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201859/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Australia’s employment growth is slowing, but the ups and downs from month to month make it hard say what happens next.Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1849292022-06-16T07:37:50Z2022-06-16T07:37:50ZAn extra 60,600 Australians found work in May. Here’s why wages aren’t moving much<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469187/original/file-20220616-20-ilh27c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=269%2C59%2C3215%2C1958&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The rate of unemployment remained steady at <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/may-2022">3.9%</a> between April and May.</p>
<p>That Australia has now managed to keep a rate of unemployment below 4% for three consecutive months is extraordinarily good news.</p>
<p>It gets better. While the unemployment rate didn’t improve, the labour market did, substantially.</p>
<p>The number of Australians in jobs climbed by 60,620 between April and May – a very large 0.5%. The proportion of the working age population in employment climbed to a new record high of 64.1%.</p>
<p>Hours of work also grew strongly, by 0.9%. What makes that growth especially noteworthy is that it happened at the same time as a much larger number of workers than usual were off work with COVID and flu.</p>
<h2>More sick leave, yet more hours worked</h2>
<p>In May, an outsized 780,500 workers spent reduced time on the job due to illness, injury or sick leave, compared to an average of only 373,000 in the same month over the previous five years. About half of the extra workers taking time off in 2022 didn’t work at all in the survey week.</p>
<p>Which raises an interesting question. With such an unusually large number of jobs created, why didn’t the unemployment rate fall? </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-invented-unemployment-and-why-were-outgrowing-it-183545">How we invented 'unemployment' – and why we're outgrowing it</a>
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<p>The reason is that the number of people wanting to work also rose, pretty much exactly in line with the rise in employment. Strong employment drew more people into the labour force.</p>
<p>On average, an extra 45,000 people have found work per month over the past six months.</p>
<p>The proportion of the population in work is now not only ahead of where it was before COVID, but also ahead of where it would have been had the pre-COVID trends continued.</p>
<h2>Most wages don’t get adjusted often</h2>
<p>Another interesting question is why, if things are so good, wage growth has scarcely lifted. The wage price index grew just <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/mar-2022">2.4%</a> in the year to March, up from 2.3% in the year to December.</p>
<p>One answer is that Australia’s wage-setting institutions create a built-in delay between labour market changes and wage changes. </p>
<p>Workers covered by awards, whose pay is adjusted via the Fair Work Commission’s minimum wage decision, make up 23% of all employees. </p>
<p>Workers whose pay depends on multi-year enterprise agreements make up 35.1%.</p>
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<p>As happened <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-5-2-decision-on-the-minimum-wage-could-shift-the-trajectory-for-all-workers-185117">this week</a>, award wages are adjusted to reflect labour market conditions, but only once a year; and other wages less often.</p>
<p>Another answer is that after a decade of not needing to pay wage increases to hire and retain staff, employers may be finding it difficult to adjust to changed conditions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-5-2-decision-on-the-minimum-wage-could-shift-the-trajectory-for-all-185117">This 5.2% decision on the minimum wage could shift the trajectory for all</a>
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<p>Contributing to this might be uncertainty about whether – in an environment where shortages in some occupations are due to low immigration – there’s much point in paying more, given that borders will reopen.</p>
<p>The low rates of wage growth over the past decade, and especially since COVID, have come with a substantial cost – to equity and to the living standards of workers.</p>
<h2>Silver lining</h2>
<p>There is, however, a silver lining. Australia’s low wage growth places us in a much better situation to avoid stagflation – the double-whammy of high inflation and high unemployment.</p>
<p>The onset of high inflation in Australia has caused policy-makers to seek to restrain economic activity – as evidenced by the Reserve Bank’s decision at its June meeting to lift its cash rate 0.5 points. </p>
<p>There is a risk these moves will push unemployment back up.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-one-big-reason-wages-are-stagnating-the-enterprise-bargaining-system-is-broken-and-in-terminal-decline-183818">There's one big reason wages are stagnating: the enterprise bargaining system is broken, and in terminal decline</a>
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<p>Our low wage growth though should make it easier to bring inflation under control. With the need to restrain economic activity therefore being lessened, we have a better chance to avoid higher unemployment.</p>
<p>This is a much better situation than in the US, where both price and wage inflation have taken off.</p>
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<p>In the US, leading commentators now believe there is <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w29910">little chance</a> inflation can be tamed without a substantial rise in unemployment.</p>
<p>Things are also very different to the last time Australia faced the challenge of stagflation, during the 1970s and early 1980s. </p>
<p>Back then, wage inflation was a major source of price inflation – initially through large wage increases granted to workers in the early 1970s, and then via a system of quarterly wage indexation which linked wages directly to increases in prices in near real-time. Things are different today.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-isnt-experiencing-the-great-resignation-yet-but-there-has-been-an-uptick-184384">Australia isn't experiencing the great resignation yet, but there has been an uptick</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Even with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, wages aren’t adjusted often.Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1812422022-04-14T07:59:08Z2022-04-14T07:59:08ZTechnically unemployment now begins with a ‘3’. How to keep it there?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458112/original/file-20220414-14-nti9wg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=213%2C112%2C3497%2C1433&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The official employment figures say the unemployment rate for March was <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">4.0%</a>, exactly the same as a month earlier. </p>
<p>But if you’re prepared to download the spreadsheet and work it out, you’ll find that expressed to two decimal places the rate actually fell, from 4.04% to <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release#data-downloads">3.95%</a>. </p>
<p>The Bureau of Statistics confirms this by saying on its website that the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points between February and March while also (apparently inconsistentlly) saying it was 4.0% in both months.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458083/original/file-20220414-14-7b3keg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a></span>
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<p>This result, clearly below 4%, is the lowest rate of unemployment Australia has seen since the monthly series of labour force statistics began in February 1978, and the lowest since the November quarter of 1974, almost 50 years ago, when the figures were quarterly.</p>
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<p>After the decade up to March 2020 in which the rate hardly moved above 6% or below 5%, the new rate of 3.95% is an enormous step in the right direction.</p>
<p>But we need to worry about more than unemployment. Workers can be underemployed (getting less hours than they would like) and people who would like to work but think they won’t get work, may stop searching and not get recorded as unemployed.</p>
<p>There’s good news on both counts.</p>
<h2>Less underemployment, fewer hidden unemployed</h2>
<p>The proportion of workers underemployed has fallen from 9.3% prior to COVID in March 2020 to 6.6%. And rather than people withdrawing from the labour force and not looking for work, the rate at which people are either working or looking is up half a percentage point on before COVID.</p>
<p>As well, in an instance of the adage that a rising tide lifts all boats, young Australians who in the 2010s lost out as the economy slowed, now seem to be benefiting most from the pick-up. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/forget-the-election-gaffes-australias-unemployment-rate-is-good-news-and-set-to-get-even-better-by-polling-day-181141">Forget the election gaffes: Australia's unemployment rate is good news – and set to get even better by polling day</a>
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<p>The proportion of young Australians who are employed is an extraordinary 4.6 percentage points higher than in March 2020. </p>
<p>This compares with an improvement of 1.9 percentage points for Australians aged 25 to 64 years, and 0.4 percentage point for Australians aged 65 years and over.</p>
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<p>A rate of unemployment below 4% is certainly a positive. It means more of the nation’s productive resources are being used. It has improved the living standards of the 170,000 people employed today who would have not been, had unemployment remained where it was before COVID. </p>
<p>But those benefits will only stay in place as long as unemployment remains low. Our objective ought to be to keep it as low as possible for as long as possible. </p>
<h2>How can we keep unemployment below 4%?</h2>
<p>Unemployment fell below 4% because more of the population found work.</p>
<p>The economic stimulus the government provided to respond to COVID was built for a worst case that didn’t materialise – people generally kept their jobs. As a result it added to employment growth, and established that it was easier to get unemployment down than had been generally realised.</p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-cut-unemployment-faster-than-predicted-why-stop-now-177124">Australia cut unemployment faster than predicted – why stop now?</a>
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<p>This suggests that keeping unemployment below 4% will depend on being committed to that goal. </p>
<p>Much of the COVID stimulus has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/wednesdays-gdp-numbers-are-impressive-but-they-are-for-the-december-quarter-when-we-were-bouncing-back-from-delta-177821">saved</a> and has yet to make its way into spending. This, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-2022-frydenberg-has-spent-big-but-on-the-whole-responsibly-180122">new spending measures</a> in the 2022 budget, are likely to maintain the impetus needed to keep unemployment low for the months ahead.</p>
<p>Beyond that, what happens to unemployment will depend on the next government’s decisions. </p>
<h2>That 1.3 million extra jobs pledge</h2>
<p>All this must mean the Coalition’s pledge to create <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2022/04/12/13-million-new-jobs-pledged">1.3 million</a> extra jobs in the next five years is what’s needed. Well, maybe. </p>
<p>Certainly, employment has to grow for the rate of unemployment to stay low. But the absolute number of jobs only has relevance for the rate of unemployment when we also know what is happening to the number of people who want to work. </p>
<p>Depending on whether the keenness of Australians to get jobs (<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/unemployment-its-measurement-and-types.html">participation</a>) increases at a faster or slower rate than employment, 1.3 million extra jobs could either cut the rate of unemployment or be insufficient to stop it climbing.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-record-vacancies-australians-shouldnt-expect-big-pay-rises-soon-180416">Despite record vacancies, Australians shouldn't expect big pay rises soon</a>
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<p>Suppose 1.3 million jobs are created in the next five years as the Coalition has <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2022/04/12/13-million-new-jobs-pledged">pledged</a>, and all of them increase employment. And suppose also that the labour force participation rate grows at the same pace as for the past five years and the working age population at the rate projected by the Bureau of Statistics. </p>
<p>Then Australia’s rate of unemployment in five years time will be about 4.4%, which is higher rather than lower than it is today.</p>
<p>Ultimately what we care about is the <em>proportion</em> of the population that is in work, rather than the number of jobs created, which can be related to population.</p>
<p>A more meaningful pledge would be to keep unemployment at the lowest possible rate below 4% without causing excessive wage inflation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Even the government’s pledge of 1.3 million extra jobs might not be enough to keep unemployment below 4%. The pledge ought to be the unemployment rate itself.Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1760742022-02-10T16:08:04Z2022-02-10T16:08:04ZThe UK’s ‘work-first’ approach to benefits hurts mothers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445425/original/file-20220209-23-1t3zqhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=55%2C15%2C5227%2C3500&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-beautiful-businesswoman-talking-on-mobile-1405812413">ErsinTekkol / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Social security reform in the UK over the years has increasingly prioritised placing people in paid work, often using the threat of withholding benefits as an incentive to find a job. These systems pose particular challenges for unemployed mothers, and the new <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-jobs-mission-to-get-500-000-into-work">Way to Work campaign</a> is no exception.</p>
<p>When the government introduced universal credit in 2013, it increased the work preparation and job search requirements that parents have to carry out in order to receive benefits. Under the old social security system, single parents had to carry out a set number of job searching activities (like preparing a CV or contacting potential employers). This changed under universal credit, which instead requires them to dedicate a mandatory number of hours to job searching (up to 35 per week) or face benefits sanctions – the partial or complete withdrawal of benefit payments.</p>
<p>The government <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/220177/universal-credit-wr2011-ia.pdf">touted universal credit</a> as an “opportunity to promote equality in work and narrow the employment gap”, as most of the parents who would be affected by these conditionality requirements were women. But work-first approaches like this actually contribute to gender inequality in the paid labour market, by compelling mothers to take the first available job regardless of compatibility with education, experience and caring responsibilities. </p>
<p>The focus in universal credit is getting claimants into any job quickly. Claimants used to be given three months to search for jobs in their previous occupation or sector. Under the new Way to Work campaign, this has been reduced to four weeks. At that point, if claimants do not look for work in another sector, their benefit payments could be cut or reduced.</p>
<p>This approach to getting people into any paid work quickly may be particularly harmful to mothers, who already have a weaker position in the labour market. Mothers are more likely to be in <a href="https://wbg.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/FINAL-Female-Face-of-Poverty.pdf">low-paid, insecure jobs</a> like cleaning and catering. The gender pay gap (the difference in pay between men and women) <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/publications/10364">increases rapidly</a> for many women after they have children. The Resolution Foundation thinktank has <a href="https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2017/10/Great-Escape-final-report.pdf">also found</a> that compared to men, women particularly struggle to progress in paid work, probably because of caring responsibilities. By pressuring mothers to enter paid work quickly rather than helping them obtain sustainable jobs they are qualified for, mothers will face an even bigger challenge in advancing in the paid labour market.</p>
<p>In interviews with mothers receiving universal credit, I have found that when they entered paid work, it was mainly in low-paid, insecure, part time jobs, often below their qualification levels. The requirement to take “any work” was written on the participants’ claimant commitments, a document created at the start of the universal credit claim stating their work-related requirements. Participants were frequently reminded of the sanctions that could be issued if they did not fulfil these obligations. Many felt under significant pressure to obtain paid work quickly. As one coupled mother with two children explained:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>You just think, ‘oh my God if I’m not doing everything in my power to be working’, and you know so you’ll just take on whatever work you can such as working away for a month or whatever, which is fine for some families but is not necessarily the right fit for us.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Exterior shot of a Job Centre Plus with parent holding the hand of a young child walking past" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445426/original/file-20220209-21-1tkpp6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445426/original/file-20220209-21-1tkpp6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445426/original/file-20220209-21-1tkpp6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445426/original/file-20220209-21-1tkpp6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445426/original/file-20220209-21-1tkpp6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445426/original/file-20220209-21-1tkpp6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445426/original/file-20220209-21-1tkpp6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Way to Work will force people to look for jobs outside of their expertise sooner, or face sanctions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/frome-uk-january-5-2017-exterior-559278979">1000 Words / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The lack of moves into adequately paid, sustainable jobs may be partly due to the emphasis in the universal credit system on ensuring claimants carry out their requirements rather than on providing specialist support in entering paid work. Women reported that they were offered minimal support in obtaining paid work. Instead, their appointments at job centres were mainly about checking they had met their requirements. One single mother with two young children said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think she [JobCentre Plus staff member] was to check things and just update the computer … rather than any kind of careers advice. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Stunted growth</h2>
<p>Mothers also told me that the work-related requirements in universal credit held them back from working towards their long-term work aspirations. One single mother who was undertaking a part time degree expressed frustration at the requirement to undertake paid work, as it got in the way of her studies, which she felt were important to her family’s long term financial situation:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>That’s the one that’s having to take more of a back bench I’d say, which is not ideal is it, ‘cos that’s the thing that I really really need for our futures to be concentrating on. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This mother had to take some time out of her studies as she was overburdened by her responsibilities towards her three children, her studies and her work-related requirements. <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0950017012460306">Other research</a> has also found that subjecting mothers to work-related requirements limits their opportunities for training and education. This is problematic given the importance of training and education to women’s ability to enter paid work and to their <a href="https://www.llakes.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/30.-Dorsett-Lui-Weale-final.pdf">long term earnings</a>. </p>
<p>Making mothers search for “any job” under the threat of sanction will not help improve gender equality in the paid labour market. Instead, mothers need specialist support in obtaining paid work that fits with their caring responsibilities and is helpful to their long term financial security.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176074/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Andersen received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council to complete this research. </span></em></p>The Way to Work scheme will increase the pressure of benefits sanctions, which is particularly damaging for women and mothers.Kate Andersen, Research associate, Social Policy and Social Work, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1759742022-02-03T16:09:46Z2022-02-03T16:09:46ZWay to Work scheme: forcing people into jobs they aren’t suited for has damaging effects<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443862/original/file-20220201-22-7hf2w6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C155%2C4706%2C2972&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/westonsupermare-uk-august-26-2015-two-311273393">BasPhoto / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK government has announced a new initiative to get 500,000 people into work and help fill the current record 1.2 million job vacancies in the economy. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-jobs-mission-to-get-500-000-into-work">“Way to Work” campaign</a> promises to offer greater support to jobseekers and more engagement between the Department for Work and Pensions and employers, both welcome developments. </p>
<p>However, it will also use the threat of financial “sanctions” (in effect, fines) to force jobseekers on Universal Credit to look for work outside their chosen sectors more quickly. Previously, people had three months to look for jobs in their sector. Now, they will be forced to widen their search to employment fields where they lack experience or which they do not want, after just four weeks, or face having their benefits cut. This will be damaging and counterproductive not only to jobseekers, but to employers and the economy at large. </p>
<p>The number of unemployed people who are claiming benefits is up by 600,000 compared to before the pandemic. However, the <a href="https://learningandwork.org.uk/what-we-do/employment-and-social-security/labour-market-analysis/january-2022-18">labour force</a> has lost 1.1 million people –- almost twice as many – due to reductions in immigration, early retirements, people off sick, some converting into students and other reasons. There are also unemployed people who do not claim benefits. While this worker shortage is a much bigger problem, Way to Work will not address it, because of its narrow focus on the claimant unemployed. </p>
<p>However, the high turnover of unemployed claimants -– with <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/alternative-claimant-count-statistics-january-2013-to-august-2021/alternative-claimant-count-statistics-january-2013-to-august-2021">over 200,000 new claims per month</a> – does mean that the Way to Work policy will affect a lot of people.</p>
<h2>Sanctions and jobseekers</h2>
<p>Historically, the reason for a time limit on job searching within a preferred sector was the belief (based on anecdotal evidence rather than research) that after three months of unsuccessful trying, people’s chances of getting a job there were small. But four weeks is clearly too short from this point of view. Claimants will not even have received their first Universal Credit payment, and employers will scarcely have had time to complete the recruitment process. The main effect may well be to deter workers with significant skills or experience from claiming benefit at all. </p>
<p>Studies in <a href="https://personal.lse.ac.uk/petrongo/petrongolo_jpube_2009.pdf">Britain</a>, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jae.2289">Switzerland</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/sjoe.12051">Sweden</a> have found that sanctions push people into worse jobs, with lasting ill effects. The most recent official study in the UK, by the <a href="https://www.nao.org.uk/report/benefit-sanctions/">National Audit Office</a>, found that while sanctioned unemployed claimants did indeed spend less time on benefits, they were just as likely to stop claiming as to get a job, and getting a job was at the expense of worse earnings prospects. For many people, the mere threat of sanctions will be enough to bring about these effects.</p>
<p>This is before we even consider the damaging effects on claimants who actually experience sanctions. <a href="https://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/evidence-mounts-case-governments-sanctions-regime/">Physical</a> and <a href="https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/199036/">mental</a> ill health, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-social-policy/article/impact-of-welfare-benefit-sanctioning-on-food-insecurity-a-dynamic-crossarea-study-of-food-bank-usage-in-the-uk/9BDC098A9A432583859D6739C0A0DA0C">hunger</a>, <a href="https://www4.shu.ac.uk/research/cresr/sites/shu.ac.uk/files/homeless-experiences-welfare-conditionality-benefit-sanctions.pdf">homelessness</a>, <a href="https://www.moneyandmentalhealth.org/publications/suicide-and-debt/">debt</a> and “<a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/portec/v5y2006i2p149-165.html">survival crime</a>”, have all been <a href="https://cpag.org.uk/policy-and-campaigns/briefing/benefit-sanctions">extensively documented</a> consequences. </p>
<p>There have been numerous studies on the impact of welfare conditionality and sanctions on different labour markets around the world. A <a href="https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/gmw9v/">comprehensive review</a> of findings, compiled by a University of Glasgow team, found that overall, sanctions positively impacted employment levels, but negatively impacted job quality and stability long term. They also found that sanctions led to increases in nonemployment and economic inactivity, as well as increased material hardship, health problems and sometimes, poorer child wellbeing. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Five people in professional dress sitting side by side in a queue for a job interview, some are reading CVs or drinking coffee" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444037/original/file-20220202-19-33mtpb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444037/original/file-20220202-19-33mtpb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444037/original/file-20220202-19-33mtpb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444037/original/file-20220202-19-33mtpb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444037/original/file-20220202-19-33mtpb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444037/original/file-20220202-19-33mtpb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444037/original/file-20220202-19-33mtpb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sanctions might improve employment levels, but at the expense of long term stability and job quality.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/multiethnic-applicants-sitting-queue-preparing-interview-1022439355">fizkes / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Economic impact</h2>
<p>The policy will also be bad for the economy. Forcing people into less preferred jobs is bound to make for a worse match between applicant and job, in terms of knowledge, skills, experience and motivation: square pegs in round holes. It is obvious that neither employers nor consumers will be happy with this. Neither want workers whose heart is not in the job, and employers don’t want to waste time looking at unsuitable applicants. </p>
<p>There is also solid evidence that it will reduce economic efficiency and productivity. An <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/588585">American study</a> found that if people have greater resources to draw on while unemployed, they take more time to find a job – indicating that choosiness pays off. If a longer job search pays off for the individual, it will also do so for the economy. Other American studies from <a href="https://economics.mit.edu/files/5685">2000</a> and <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/unemployment-benefits-job-match-quality-and-labour-market-functioning">2021</a> found that availability of unemployment benefits increases total output and welfare in the economy as a whole.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/183161/">2018 paper</a> to the <a href="http://www.welfareconditionality.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/40475_Welfare-Conditionality_Report_complete-v3.pdf">Welfare Conditionality Conference</a>, I pointed out that historically, major drives to impose financial penalties on jobseekers occurred during periods of recovery from recession. In a recovery, governments get impatient at the slow pace of unemployed people getting back into work. Higher-than-usual unemployment benefit claims also become an attractive target for cost savings. Sadly, Way to Work fits all too clearly into this pattern. It may save the government some money in the short term, but only at the expense of the longer term wellbeing of jobseekers and the wider economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175974/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:david.webster@glasgow.ac.uk">david.webster@glasgow.ac.uk</a> is affiliated with Labour Party - ordinary member.</span></em></p>Evidence shows that benefits sanctions push people into worse jobs, with long term negative effects.David Webster, Honorary Senior Research Fellow, School of Social & Political Sciences, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1506022021-02-08T16:32:40Z2021-02-08T16:32:40ZHow to navigate a freelance career during the COVID-19 crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377403/original/file-20210106-23-ib909b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4286%2C2243&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The COVID-19 pandemic has hit freelancers and gig workers hard. Here's how they can get through the crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Piqsels)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.ilo.org/asia/media-centre/news/WCMS_763819/lang--en/index.htm">Millions of people around the world</a> have lost their jobs, temporarily or permanently, during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>Freelancers and contract workers have been among those heavily affected by this health and economic crisis. Freelancers often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0018726715580866">work on a contract basis and for multiple clients</a>. In some industries (such as cosmetics, arts and sports), freelancers have lost many contracts and employment opportunities. </p>
<p>The Canadian government has offered financial support to these gig workers. However, the long-term effects on freelancers might go beyond losing their source of income. It may require them to seek more stable forms of employment, foregoing <a href="https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/gig-workers-value-their-flexibility-lot">the flexibility many gig workers enjoy</a>.</p>
<p>This could halt further development of the freelance employment cohort, <a href="http://www.knowledgebureau.com/index.php/news/article/a-workforce-of-freelancers-almost-half-by-2020">which was expected to grow significantly in coming years</a>. So it’s important to understand how freelancers can cope with the pandemic and remain positive.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-workers-are-opting-to-live-in-their-vans-148961">Why some workers are opting to live in their vans</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/PR-07-2020-0563/full/html">I designed a study</a> to examine how freelancers can stay positive and determined in their job searches and how they can cope with the shock of COVID-19. In my study, I looked into three aspects I call “career resources” that freelancers might use to stay confident and to explore their job opportunities. </p>
<p>These resources are explained in a book titled <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/an-intelligent-career-9780190494131?cc=ca&lang=en&"><em>An Intelligent Career</em></a> by Suffolk University career expert Michael Arthur and his colleagues. As explained in this book, people use a combination of resources to work and navigate their careers, including the following three:</p>
<ol>
<li><p><em>Passion for career</em>: Internal motivation (or passion) to do the job;</p></li>
<li><p><em>Expertise and skills</em>: A set of skills that helps them perform the job; and</p></li>
<li><p><em>Professional relationships</em>: Colleagues and friends who offer encouragement, help and support.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>In short, I wanted to answer these questions: Do these three career resources help freelancers stay confident in times of uncertainty? Which career resources help them remain determined in exploring their job opportunities?</p>
<h2>The study’s design</h2>
<p>To find out, I asked 87 Canadian freelancers to complete a survey about their job search during the COVID-19 pandemic. I asked questions about their career resources (their passion for their freelance jobs, their level of skills and expertise, and their relationships). I also asked questions about their confidence in finding jobs as well as their proactiveness in exploring job opportunities.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377382/original/file-20210106-17-4g8k16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1279&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A makeup artist applies eye shadow to another woman." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377382/original/file-20210106-17-4g8k16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1279&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377382/original/file-20210106-17-4g8k16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377382/original/file-20210106-17-4g8k16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377382/original/file-20210106-17-4g8k16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377382/original/file-20210106-17-4g8k16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377382/original/file-20210106-17-4g8k16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377382/original/file-20210106-17-4g8k16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Freelancers were asked about the passion they feel for their work.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pixabay)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Statistical analysis showed that passion was the most powerful resource for freelancers to stay confident and motivated in job searches. Skills were also related to freelancers’ level of confidence and proactiveness. </p>
<p>However, relationships did not necessarily contribute positively to freelancers’ confidence and proactiveness in their job search. This could possibly be because they’ve heard disheartening news about their friends and colleagues losing jobs during difficult times, such as the pandemic. The larger someone’s network of people is, the more likely that they’ve heard bad news and negative thoughts. As a result, freelancers might lose confidence and drive after hearing that many of their colleagues and friends lost work.</p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>There are many ways governments and employers can help freelancers remain hopeful, confident and proactive in their job searches.</p>
<p>Because passion and skills are key resources for freelancers, governments can provide programs that enable them to develop their skills and enhance their passions. For example, online educational videos can provide freelancers with insightful information on key skills such as leadership. These online videos could be provided to various groups of freelancers, especially those who apply for employment insurance in times of difficulty.</p>
<p>Employers can also assist freelancers by designing interesting jobs with on-the-job learning and growth opportunities. These opportunities not only improve freelancers’ skills, but also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-orgpsych-032516-113108">heighten their passion</a> by satisfying their desire to feel challenged.</p>
<p>Friends and family members can also help freelancers. In my study, friends and colleagues did not necessarily improve freelancers’ confidence and proactiveness. It might be because so many people share negative thoughts and discouraging news about widespread job losses and potential economic crises. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two people hold hands at a table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377405/original/file-20210106-13-9n1nkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377405/original/file-20210106-13-9n1nkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377405/original/file-20210106-13-9n1nkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377405/original/file-20210106-13-9n1nkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377405/original/file-20210106-13-9n1nkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377405/original/file-20210106-13-9n1nkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377405/original/file-20210106-13-9n1nkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Support from friends and family is critical for freelance workers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Piqsels)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I suggest people be kinder and spread positive thoughts to the freelancers in their lives. This is central to one of the three career resources that many people rely on in their professional lives — friends and colleagues offering support and encouragement.</p>
<p>Last but not least, freelancers themselves must be proactive. They can take advantage of lockdowns and economic downturns by investing their time in skill development. An inexpensive (or sometimes free) way to do so is to <a href="https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/platforms-for-online-courses">take online courses</a> related to their area of work, leadership or interpersonal skills. </p>
<p>Taking these courses will help them feel more skilled and connected, which will help increase their passion for their work while putting them in a stronger position to find jobs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150602/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mostafa Ayoobzadeh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Freelancers who have lost work during the COVID-19 crisis can take steps to ensure they have a successful long-term career in the post-pandemic period.Mostafa Ayoobzadeh, Lecturer, Leadership Development, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1410762020-08-26T15:01:40Z2020-08-26T15:01:40ZAfrican farmers are younger than you think. Here is why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345296/original/file-20200702-111333-1ajtquz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A young African farmer</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past 20 years sub-Saharan Africa has registered the <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/a-bo092e.pdf">highest rate</a> of agricultural production in the world. There have been knock-on effects with the region also seeing the <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---inst/documents/publication/wcms_624872.pdf">fastest growth</a> in off-farm employment and non-farm labour productivity. </p>
<p>There’s a <a href="https://farmerline.co/2019/05/29/securing-the-future-of-agriculture-in-the-face-of-an-ageing-farmer-population/#:%7E:text=Ghana%20is%20like%20many%20other,Food%20and%20Agriculture%2C%202011">widely held</a> view that Africa’s agricultural growth trajectory could be jeopardised by an ageing farm population because young people are fleeing from farming. Several sources indicate that the average age of Africans in farming has risen to 60 years or more. But we are unaware of any empirical evidence to support this claim. </p>
<p>To understand what’s really going on, we used nationally representative survey data collected by the government statistical offices of six African countries – Ghana, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia, Nigeria and Tanzania. Because these surveys were replicated multiple times in each country between 2000 and 2018, we can compute how much time people spent annually in farming and off-farm jobs. We can examine trends in the age distribution of the labour force in farm and off-farm employment since 2000. </p>
<p>This was done as part of our <a href="https://www.rural21.com/english/current-issue/detail/article/the-myth-of-africas-ageing-farmers.html">research</a> into young people’s access to land as well as their migration decisions and employment opportunities.</p>
<h2>Breaking the myth</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.rural21.com/english/current-issue/detail/article/the-myth-of-africas-ageing-farmers.html">findings</a> debunk the myth that most farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are over 60 years of age – far from it in fact. </p>
<p>According to the national government-administered data in the six countries, the average age of the agricultural workforce ranges from about 32 years to 39 years. Even when not counting young adults in the 15 to 24 year old range, the average age of the agricultural workforce ranges from 38 to 45 years of age. And even going beyond the generally accepted labour force age range of 15 to 64 years to include all elderly people of any age working in farming, the mean age of farmers barely changes. </p>
<p>This is explained by the fact that <a href="https://www.populationpyramid.net/africa/2020/">only 3%</a> of sub-Saharan Africa’s population is 65 years and over. And less than half of this group is economically active and engaged in farming. </p>
<p>Secondly, the average age of the agricultural workforce in the six African countries examined has either increased by one or two years or remained constant over the past decade. Between the first and latest survey periods, which spanned from seven to 12 years, the average age of the labour force in farming increased by less than two years in four of the six study countries (Ghana, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia). The mean farmer age remained unchanged in Nigeria and declined slightly in Tanzania.</p>
<p>In other words, the age of Africans in farming is barely rising, if at all. Considering that roughly 7 million to 10 million young people are entering the labour force in sub-Saharan Africa each year, it is easy to understand why the average age of the farming population is not rising, even with large numbers of young people partially or fully moving out of farming. </p>
<p>Based on these nationally representative surveys, it is clear that of the region’s many agricultural challenges, an ageing workforce in farming is fortunately not one of them. </p>
<p>Third, our study found that individuals in off-farm jobs are on average one to three years younger than those in farming, especially when the sample excludes the 15-24 year old age group. </p>
<h2>How to make farming profitable for young people</h2>
<p>As highlighted in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00220388.2018.1430767?journalCode=fjds20">previous studies</a>, the share of employment in farming has been declining over time as opportunities for off-farm employment expand in Africa’s rapidly transforming economies. But farming still accounts for a significant proportion of the jobs held by working-age individuals and remains the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00220388.2018.1430767?journalCode=fjds20">single largest</a> employer of rural youth. Most of the jobs, however, are, part time. </p>
<p>It is true that many young people from rural areas are leaving farming as off-farm opportunities continue to expand. Nevertheless, most young people who are economically active remain engaged in farming. What is missing, however, is a critical mass of skilled young Africans with access to finance and know-how to drive productivity growth in farming and related value chains. </p>
<p>The idea of keeping young people in farming for fear of African agriculture becoming the preserve of the elderly is misplaced. A more effective strategy would prioritise resourcing the millions of rural youth already engaged in farming to make farming more profitable. Making agriculture “sexy” is not nearly as important as making it profitable. Young people will flock to agriculture if and when it becomes clear that it can make good money. </p>
<p>A related priority is to encourage skilled young Africans to apply their expertise to address the many policy, regulatory, and financing barriers that inhibit them from starting and expanding agribusiness firms that provide important services to African farmers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felix Kwame Yeboah receives funding from Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Jayne receives funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), which is led by the International Food Policy Research Institute. </span></em></p>Africa is far from having an ageing farming population. What is missing is a critical mass of skilled, young farmers with access to finance who could drive productivity in farming.Felix Kwame Yeboah, Assistant Professor of International Development, Michigan State UniversityThomas Jayne, MSU Foundation Professor, Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1407232020-06-29T06:08:59Z2020-06-29T06:08:59ZTeleworkability in Australia: 41% of full-time and 35% of part-time jobs can be done from home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344210/original/file-20200626-33538-t6btjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C23%2C5184%2C3422&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victoria’s outbreak of COVID-19 infections, with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704?nw=0#newcasesbysource">75 more cases identified overnight</a> on top of 173 cases the previous five days, underlines the need to stick with social distancing measures wherever possible. </p>
<p>Working at home, in particular. </p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-29/victorian-coronavirus-second-peak-melbourne-hotspots/12402126">23 cases have been linked</a> to Melbourne’s Stamford Plaza hotel, where people flying in from overseas have been quarantined. Victorian premier Daniel Andrews said on Sunday the hotel outbreak might be due to staff sharing a cigarette lighter or carpooling to work.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-coronavirus-hotspots-not-quite-a-second-wave-but-still-cause-for-concern-141193">Victoria's coronavirus hotspots: not quite a second wave, but still cause for concern</a>
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<p>So what proportion of the workforce in Australia can feasibly work from home?</p>
<p>We estimate 39% of all jobs in Australia – 41% full-time and and almost 35% of part-time – can be done from home. Full-time jobs are more teleworkable than part-time jobs. Women are also more likely to have teleworkable jobs – 46% to 33% of men. </p>
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<h2>How we made our calculations</h2>
<p>To make these estimates, we used the methodology of University of Chicago economists Jonathan Dingel and Brent Neiman. In <a href="https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_White-Paper_Dingel_Neiman_3.2020.pdf">June</a> they published findings that 37% of jobs in the United States could be done at home. </p>
<p>They took data from the <a href="https://www.onetonline.org/">Occupational Information Network</a>, a US government-funded online database describing about 1,000 occupations in the US. Any job involving outdoor work, operating vehicles or equipment, general physical activities, handling objects, dealing directly with the public and so on was deemed not teleworkable.</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344218/original/file-20200626-33557-1b2mc2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344218/original/file-20200626-33557-1b2mc2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/344218/original/file-20200626-33557-1b2mc2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344218/original/file-20200626-33557-1b2mc2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344218/original/file-20200626-33557-1b2mc2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344218/original/file-20200626-33557-1b2mc2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344218/original/file-20200626-33557-1b2mc2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/344218/original/file-20200626-33557-1b2mc2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">This map shows the share of jobs that can be done at home for 388 US statistical areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_White-Paper_Dingel_Neiman_3.2020.pdf">Jonathan Dingel & Brent Neiman</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<hr>
<p>Dingel and Nieman also made calculations for 85 other countries. In general, they concluded, the higher per capita GDP, the greater the teleworkability. Sweden and Britain, for example, exceeded 40% while Mexico and Turkey were less than 25%. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heading-back-to-the-office-heres-how-to-protect-yourself-and-your-colleagues-from-coronavirus-140436">Heading back to the office? Here's how to protect yourself and your colleagues from coronavirus</a>
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<h2>Australian assumptions</h2>
<p>To apply Dingel and Nieman’s approach to Australia we assumed the nature of work and general economic activity is similar to the US. </p>
<p>Next we converted occupational classifications from the Australasian equivalent of the US database – the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ANZSCO">Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations</a> (ANZSCO) compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/">Stats NZ</a>.</p>
<p>The ANZSCO classifications do not exactly match the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) used by the US database. In such cases we evenly distributed the jobs in the Australian classification between the corresponding international classifications.</p>
<p>Our estimate is therefore a proximate indicator of teleworkability. Our results broadly confirm those by <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/working-from-home-favours-well-off-city-dwellers-20200416-p54ka9.html">Harvard University economist James Stratton</a> (an Australian) using Dingel and Niemans’s methodology. </p>
<p>Stratton’s results highlighted the geographic and socio-economic disparities in teleworkability: for example, 45% of jobs in Australia’s eight major cities can be done at home, compared to 33% elsewhere. </p>
<p>To complement this work, we’ve drilled into the gender differences.</p>
<h2>Teleworking favours women</h2>
<p>Importantly, we estimate 45.7% women have teleworkable jobs compared to 32.9% of men. </p>
<p>This is due to about 60% of female employment being concentrated in administrative, clerical, teaching and customer-service jobs.</p>
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<p><iframe id="3xezk" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3xezk/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>Teleworkability is highest in the Australian Capital Territory (50.3%), followed by Victoria (40%), the Northern Territory (39.5%), Queensland (37.2%), WA (36.8$), SA (36.2%) and Tasmania (34.9%).</p>
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<p>Full-time jobs are more teleworkable than part-time jobs, 41% to 34.7%. Moreover, 51.7% of women with full-time jobs can work from home, compared with 34.7% of men.</p>
<p>Younger employees are less likely to have teleworkable jobs, particularly in part-time employment. Young men in part-time jobs are the least likely to have a job they can do at home. </p>
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<p>The labour-market effects of working from home remain to be better understood. But these calculations – as broad as they are – provide some good news on the economic <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-women-are-hit-doubly-hard-by-recessions-especially-this-one-140943">gender impacts of COVID-19</a>, hitting women marginally more.</p>
<p>While working from home is not for everyone, these estimates show it’s a viable arrangement for many.</p>
<p>And a crucial measure for Australia to beat the coronavirus pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140723/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mehmet Ulubasoglu is affiliated with the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC). He receives funding from the BNHCRC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yasin Kursat Onder does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We estimate 39% of all jobs in Australia can be done from home, with men more likely to have teleworkable jobs.Mehmet Ulubasoglu, Professor of Economics, Head of the Department of Economics and Director of the Centre for Energy, the Environment and Natural Disasters, Deakin UniversityYasin Kursat Onder, Assistant Professor in Economics, Ghent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1406282020-06-18T06:14:23Z2020-06-18T06:14:23ZRetail won’t snap back. 3 reasons why COVID has changed the way we shop, perhaps forever<p>It’s wrong to expect a “snap-back” at shopping centres, food courts, cinemas and other places where people used to gather to spend money.</p>
<p>We’ve identified three reasons why spending in physical stores on goods like clothes is likely to remain much lower than it was for a long time.</p>
<h2>1. Fear, much of it age-based</h2>
<p>First, even when governments relax restrictions, lots of people will still be worried and will go out less. Unless there are zero cases for several weeks in a state or city, many people will remain reluctant to go out.</p>
<p>This is why we have previously argued that there is a big dividend in <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-endgame-c-stop-almost-everything-restart-when-coronavirus-is-gone-134232">eliminating</a> COVID-19 in the style of New Zealand, the Northern Territory, and South Australia, rather than bumping along with “suppression” – and several new locally-acquired cases a day – as Victoria is still doing.</p>
<p>This reluctance to go out and spend, irrespective of government restrictions, could be seen in Australia before government restrictions were imposed, as shown on the “Consumers and mobility” tab of the <a href="https://grattan.shinyapps.io/covid-econ-tracker/">Grattan Econ Tracker</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-hits-zero-active-coronavirus-cases-here-are-5-measures-to-keep-it-that-way-139862">New Zealand hits zero active coronavirus cases. Here are 5 measures to keep it that way</a>
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<p>The effects of fear shouldn’t be underestimated. </p>
<p>Spending in <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.04630.pdf">Sweden</a> has fallen almost as much as in Denmark, even when Denmark was in lockdown and Sweden had minimal restrictions. Swedes are afraid to go out, particularly if they are old. </p>
<p>Spending by people aged 70+ has fallen <em>further</em> in Sweden than in Denmark, and 60-69 year-olds have cut their spending by about the same amount in both countries. </p>
<p>This isn’t surprising. COVID-19 is much more deadly for older people. </p>
<p>Age-based fear is a challenge for retailers because older households now spend significantly more than younger households. 25 years ago it was the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/920-Generation-Gap.pdf">other way around</a>.</p>
<h2>2. Time to form new habits</h2>
<p>Second, we are likely to keep spending on different things, and using different channels, even after restrictions are lifted. </p>
<p>Habits tend to form when behaviour changes consistently. They strengthen over time, and are particularly sticky once behaviour has been consistent for a <a href="http://repositorio.ispa.pt/bitstream/10400.12/3364/1/IJSP_998-1009.pdf">period of months</a> – and we’ve been living with lockdown for that long in Australia.</p>
<p>Once formed, the new habits can persist unless there is another shock.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-drive-ins-where-you-can-wear-slippers-crack-peanuts-and-knit-to-your-hearts-content-139876">Australia's drive-ins: where you can wear slippers, crack peanuts, and knit 'to your heart's content'</a>
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<p>Australians have become used to doing more of their purchasing online. They have become used to spending more on living comfortably at home, and less on clothes for the office and to go out.</p>
<p>After the shutdown, people are likely to continue to work from home more often. </p>
<p>The habits of shopping remotely, and spending more on home furnishings and less on clothes, are likely to continue, and they would be likely to continue even if COVID-19 vanished tomorrow.</p>
<h2>3. Global recession</h2>
<p>Third, irrespective of COVID-19 regulations and behaviours, we are heading into an “old-fashioned”, <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33748">globally synchronised, deep recession</a>. </p>
<p>For the moment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-key-to-the-success-of-the-130-billion-wage-subsidy-is-retrospective-paid-work-135042">JobKeeper</a>, the temporarily-boosted <a href="https://theconversation.com/scalable-without-limit-how-the-government-plans-to-get-coronavirus-support-into-our-hands-quickly-134353">JobSeeker</a> payment, and a recent <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/NAB-Data-Insights-May-Report.pdf">bounceback</a>, have resulted in <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/guidance/business/commbank-card-spending-data-shows-modest-lift-202006.html">spending on credit and debit cards</a> a bit more than this time last year.</p>
<p>But unemployment jumped to <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">7.1%</a> on Thursday. That official rate understates how bad things are. </p>
<p>In May an extra 227,700 Australians lost their jobs (on top of 607,400 in April). </p>
<p>But only 85,000 of them were counted as unemployed. When and if the bulk of those people look for work, the unemployment rate will climb further. </p>
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<p><strong>Employed Australians, total</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342603/original/file-20200618-41230-ffex5d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342603/original/file-20200618-41230-ffex5d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342603/original/file-20200618-41230-ffex5d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342603/original/file-20200618-41230-ffex5d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342603/original/file-20200618-41230-ffex5d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342603/original/file-20200618-41230-ffex5d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342603/original/file-20200618-41230-ffex5d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342603/original/file-20200618-41230-ffex5d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Includes Australians regarded as still employed because they are on JobKeeper.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">ABS 6202.0</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>After JobKeeper <a href="https://theconversation.com/whatll-happen-when-the-moneys-snatched-back-our-looming-coronavirus-support-cliff-138527">ends in September</a> (or is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-improve-jobkeeper-hint-it-would-help-not-to-pay-businesses-late-140435">phased out</a> as a result of the government’s review) many of the three million people on it will also become counted as unemployed.</p>
<p>Australians who have lost their jobs are likely to spend less than they did before. </p>
<p>After each of the previous two recessions it took <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/dont-expect-a-v-shaped-recovery-after-the-pandemic/">years</a> for employment to recover.</p>
<h2>Spending need not recover after COVID</h2>
<p>These three factors – fear, new habits, and recession – are present in countries and regions that seem to be well clear of coronavirus.</p>
<p>Much of China has been free of most government restrictions for months. Manufacturing and infrastructure spending has largely returned to pre-COVID levels.</p>
<p>But consumer activity is still <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/china/retail-sales-annual">below pre-COVID levels</a>, and it is inching up only slowly.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-economy-in-7-graphs-how-a-tightening-of-wallets-pushed-australia-into-recession-139960">The economy in 7 graphs. How a tightening of wallets pushed Australia into recession</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Australia might well see an “opening party” on the day each particular COVID-19 restriction is lifted. </p>
<p>But after that, the best guess is that consumer spending will remain very subdued and refocused for a long time. </p>
<p>For those in the hardest-hit <a href="https://theconversation.com/which-jobs-are-most-at-risk-from-the-coronavirus-shutdown-134680">sectors</a> and <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/06/the-latest-jobs-data-shows-urban-electorates-are-now-being-hit-hardest-by-covid-19/">regions</a> – particularly arts and recreation, hospitality, and clothing – the pain will continue long after the restrictions are lifted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140628/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p>Even in places that are now COVID-free spending remains subdued, and different.John Daley, Chief Executive Officer, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1391752020-06-09T22:53:13Z2020-06-09T22:53:13ZYoung workers can thrive after coronavirus layoffs by leaving big cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340200/original/file-20200607-176575-1sm03kt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C123%2C4859%2C2480&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people have labour market advantages that will allow them to survive the pandemic if they keep an open mind about location and job offers.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Piqsels)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Workers under age 30 have been the first to lose their jobs or be placed on unpaid leave during the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/05/10/youth-unemployment-covid/">The younger the worker, the higher the unemployment rate</a> in May 2020. The rate was 10 per cent for those aged 31 to 65, but 24 per cent for those under the age of 30. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340630/original/file-20200609-21186-nwz93h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340630/original/file-20200609-21186-nwz93h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340630/original/file-20200609-21186-nwz93h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340630/original/file-20200609-21186-nwz93h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340630/original/file-20200609-21186-nwz93h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340630/original/file-20200609-21186-nwz93h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340630/original/file-20200609-21186-nwz93h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">(Canadian Labour Force Survey, StatCan)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And among those still employed, the young were nearly twice as likely to be on unpaid leave, according to the <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200605/dq200605a-eng.htm">May 2020 Labour Force Survey</a>.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, young people possess some labour market advantages. </p>
<p>A large fraction of their skills can be readily transferred to other jobs. Young workers tend not to have small business debts or family obligations. They are unlikely to own homes that must be sold to take up employment in other locations. </p>
<p>Young people also tend to be more physically able to take up seasonal natural resource jobs, which are often lucrative. What’s more, this age group is less likely to have the pre-existing medical conditions that seem to make COVID-19 more deadly. </p>
<h2>Spent fewer weeks on the job</h2>
<p>Young workers have generally worked at their jobs for shorter periods than older employees. The Labour Force Survey showed workers under age 30 had been with their current workplace for an average of 31 weeks. Those aged 31 to 65 had worked at the same place for an average of 115 weeks. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340637/original/file-20200609-21186-13szlt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340637/original/file-20200609-21186-13szlt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340637/original/file-20200609-21186-13szlt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340637/original/file-20200609-21186-13szlt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340637/original/file-20200609-21186-13szlt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340637/original/file-20200609-21186-13szlt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340637/original/file-20200609-21186-13szlt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">(Canadian Labour Force Survey, StatCan)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Prior to the pandemic, young workers also spent less time unemployed when they did lose jobs. </p>
<p>In April 2019, the average amount of time an unemployed youth had spent without work was about 11 weeks. Unemployed workers aged 30 or older had spent nearly twice as many weeks searching, on average. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/employing-youth-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-a-good-investment-136559">Employing youth during the coronavirus pandemic is a good investment</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Even in a labour market upended by COVID-19, the ways <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-56252-0_2">economists think about matching jobs to workers</a> are useful for predicting what might happen to young people’s job prospects. </p>
<p>The amount of time a person spends unemployed is often thought of as an outcome predicted by two variables: the lowest wage a person would be willing to accept and the rate of job offers. When a person receives job offers at a higher rate, and when a person is willing to accept a lower wage, the time spent unemployed will be lower. </p>
<h2>New jobs will be created</h2>
<p>So how does this help us understand the potential responses young people might have to the current situation?</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340197/original/file-20200607-176546-xrtduj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C382%2C6720%2C3913&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340197/original/file-20200607-176546-xrtduj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C382%2C6720%2C3913&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340197/original/file-20200607-176546-xrtduj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340197/original/file-20200607-176546-xrtduj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340197/original/file-20200607-176546-xrtduj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340197/original/file-20200607-176546-xrtduj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340197/original/file-20200607-176546-xrtduj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340197/original/file-20200607-176546-xrtduj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even though they’ve been hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic, young workers have some advantages when it comes to finding alternate work.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The arrival of the pandemic suddenly destroyed <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-627-m/11-627-m2020028-eng.htm">many jobs</a>, but it’s also created some new ones and will continue to do so. These new job vacancies might be very far geographically — and psychologically — from what young people had envisioned themselves doing in the summer of 2020. </p>
<p>The emergency safety nets provided by COVID-19 benefits reduce the financial risk to youth of leaving big cities. Young people might have an unexpected chance to take advantage of access to endless nature and low population density in places where new job opportunities arise.</p>
<p>Money received under CERB or Emergency Student Benefits (CESB) goes a lot further in less densely populated places. This also makes moving out of big cities attractive. A two-bedroom apartment in some <a href="https://realestate.mitula.ca/detalle/843/4330127591190706178/2/1/for-rent-apartments-goderich?search_terms=for+rent+apartments+goderich&page=1&pos=2&t_sec=1&t_or=2&t_pvid=95e5b47a-7112-4420-942b-ead6c826bd74">small cities can be rented for less than $1,000 per month</a>. A three-bedroom house near Lake Superior in <a href="https://realestate.mitula.ca/for-rent-houses-thunder-bay">Thunder Bay, Ont.</a>, can be rented for the same price.</p>
<p>There are currently fewer job vacancies in the cities and in sectors that have traditionally employed young people during the summer months, such as retail, accommodation and tourism. </p>
<h2>Workers needed</h2>
<p>Between April and May 2020, 47 per cent of new jobs in Canada were outside of the country’s nine major metropolitan areas. That could be because service jobs that are compatible with physical distancing and people’s holiday plans might not exist in cities this year. </p>
<p>Physical jobs that must take place outside can be done as usual, because physical distancing has always been built in. Yet, as of late May, many seasonal resource-based industries across the country were still advertising for summer workers. </p>
<p>In many cases, industries need to replace <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/covid-19-seafood-processing-temporary-foreign-workers-local-hiring-1.5570176">their regular workforce of international workers, who will not arrive this year</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340199/original/file-20200607-176554-14et7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340199/original/file-20200607-176554-14et7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340199/original/file-20200607-176554-14et7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340199/original/file-20200607-176554-14et7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340199/original/file-20200607-176554-14et7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340199/original/file-20200607-176554-14et7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340199/original/file-20200607-176554-14et7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young workers in Atlantic Canada are being employed this year at seafood plants processing lobsters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The challenge for employers and policy-makers is to get young people to accept job offers when they can receive emergency these benefits without working. </p>
<p>Younger workers do appear to be relatively likely to be in new jobs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340639/original/file-20200609-21191-1ryak2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340639/original/file-20200609-21191-1ryak2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340639/original/file-20200609-21191-1ryak2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340639/original/file-20200609-21191-1ryak2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340639/original/file-20200609-21191-1ryak2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340639/original/file-20200609-21191-1ryak2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340639/original/file-20200609-21191-1ryak2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadian Labour Force Survey, StatCan.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Still, anecdotal evidence suggests that agricultural sector employers have had extra problems hiring university students this year. A post-secondary student can live with parents and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/economic-response-plan.html">collect $1,250 without working</a>, and this is attractive for some. </p>
<p>Grocery stores everywhere must also compete with these emergency benefits when hiring new employees to deliver groceries.</p>
<h2>Benefits to moving out of big cities</h2>
<p>Yet the benefits of moving out of town for a job may persist for some time. With post-secondary studies going remote in the fall, many young people may be able to reside and work part-time in new locations beyond the summer months. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340198/original/file-20200607-176542-smi1en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340198/original/file-20200607-176542-smi1en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340198/original/file-20200607-176542-smi1en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340198/original/file-20200607-176542-smi1en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340198/original/file-20200607-176542-smi1en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340198/original/file-20200607-176542-smi1en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340198/original/file-20200607-176542-smi1en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young people who can move to smaller cities will pay considerably less rent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Piqsels)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Job skills must be practised to be maintained and improved. For those with the majority of their working lives ahead of them, this is particularly important. </p>
<p>Being flexible about both location and the nature of employment will help youth make the most of the current challenging labour market situation. </p>
<p>The new and different skills learned will be of value in many different job situations encountered in their future working lives. And keeping some connection to the paid workforce will be the best insurance against permanent <a href="https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/6198/scarring-effects-of-unemployment">scarring effects</a> of being young adults during the pandemic.</p>
<p>An important question asked of young workers in future job interviews might be:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“What did you do during the COVID-19 pandemic?”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Hopefully there will be a lot of inspired answers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139175/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louise Grogan receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Being flexible about both location and the nature of employment will help youth make the most of the current challenging labour market situation due to COVID-19.Louise Grogan, Professor of Economics, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1382682020-05-14T04:42:34Z2020-05-14T04:42:34ZWere it not for JobKeeper, unemployment would be 11.7%, up from 5.2% in one month. Here’s how the numbers pan out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334953/original/file-20200514-77271-3aeq6w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C28%2C983%2C432&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">ABS</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After all the forecasts and speculation, now we know the worst. </p>
<p>Today’s numbers from the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> lay out the catastrophic impact of COVID-19 on the Australian labour market.</p>
<p>Total hours worked fell 9.2% – in just one month, between March and April.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Percentage fall in hours worked</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334974/original/file-20200514-77243-ddf6u7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334974/original/file-20200514-77243-ddf6u7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334974/original/file-20200514-77243-ddf6u7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334974/original/file-20200514-77243-ddf6u7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334974/original/file-20200514-77243-ddf6u7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334974/original/file-20200514-77243-ddf6u7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334974/original/file-20200514-77243-ddf6u7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Months from start of recession.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">Author's calculations from ABS 6202.0</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>The scale and speed are difficult to comprehend. </p>
<p>By comparison, in the major recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, hours worked fell by 6% – but after 18 months.</p>
<p>Women have been hurt more than men, losing 11.5% of the hours worked in March, compared to men who lost 7.5%.</p>
<p>Queensland and NSW have so far fared better than other states.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Percentage fall in hours worked by state</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334976/original/file-20200514-77235-7xkx11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334976/original/file-20200514-77235-7xkx11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334976/original/file-20200514-77235-7xkx11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334976/original/file-20200514-77235-7xkx11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334976/original/file-20200514-77235-7xkx11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334976/original/file-20200514-77235-7xkx11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334976/original/file-20200514-77235-7xkx11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334976/original/file-20200514-77235-7xkx11.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">ABS 6202.0</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Predictions of much bigger job losses for the young than the old have been proved correct.</p>
<p>Workers aged 15 to 24 losing about 11% of employment compared to 3.4% for those aged 25 to 54, and 4.3% for the over 55s.</p>
<p>The official rate of unemployment in April 2020 rose to 6.2%. This is the highest rate since July 2015. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whatll-happen-when-the-moneys-snatched-back-our-looming-coronavirus-support-cliff-138527">What'll happen when the money's snatched back? Our looming coronavirus support cliff</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It doesn’t seem a big rise amid talk of a new great depression, but this is one of those times when you need to read the fine print. </p>
<p>To calculate its official rate the Australian Bureau of Statistics follows International Labor Organisation conventions in classifying employment and unemployment.</p>
<p>These classify as employed anyone who worked zero hours but was still being paid or who believed they had a job to go back to. </p>
<h2>Much worse than it looks, the bureau says so</h2>
<p>This is important because the JobKeeper scheme means many workers in Australia fit these categories. It makes a difference. </p>
<p>For this reason, the bureau has provided an <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Main%20Features5Apr%202020?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6202.0&issue=Apr%202020&num=&view=">adjusted</a> rate of unemployment which counts these workers as unemployed.</p>
<p>It puts our unemployment rate at 11.7% in April, up from 5.2% in March.</p>
<p>It is more in line with what we have been seeing in Canada and the United States.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Unemployment rates, January 2019 to April 2020</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334975/original/file-20200514-77230-801y8p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334975/original/file-20200514-77230-801y8p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334975/original/file-20200514-77230-801y8p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334975/original/file-20200514-77230-801y8p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334975/original/file-20200514-77230-801y8p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334975/original/file-20200514-77230-801y8p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334975/original/file-20200514-77230-801y8p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334975/original/file-20200514-77230-801y8p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">ABS 6202.0 and Canndian and US statistical agencies</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Under-employment is also an important part of the story. Workers who kept their jobs are now much less likely to be working the hours they want. </p>
<p>Between March and April the rate of underemployment (working fewer hours than wanted) jumped from 9.8% to 13.7%.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-attacks-are-misguided-in-a-time-of-crisis-the-bureau-of-statistics-is-serving-us-well-136958">The attacks are misguided: in a time of crisis the Bureau of Statistics is serving us well</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And many workers have also withdrawn completely from looking for work. </p>
<p>In the past month the labour force participation rate fell by 2.5 percentage points. </p>
<p>Again, women have been hurt more than men, with an extra 2.9% of women out of the labour force compared to an extra 2.1% for men. </p>
<p>Statistically, these people have vanished. They are not employed, but they are not counted as unemployed because they say they are no longer available for work.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Women have suffered much more than men. Many who were employed in March have withdrawn from the labour force and so aren’t counted as unemployed.Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1384162020-05-13T20:04:38Z2020-05-13T20:04:38ZWe need to plan for life after JobKeeper now. We need to make it portable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334593/original/file-20200513-156665-19fll1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=664%2C271%2C2346%2C1166&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As an emergency response to the potential mass unemployment created by the sudden lockdown, the Morrison government’s JobKeeper program has been reasonably successful. </p>
<p>An estimated 700 000 employers, accounting for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-06/jobkeeper-coronavirus-payments-start-for-5-million-workers/12218718.">4.7 million workers</a> have signed up. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the sign up of workers has been been about one million less than expected. </p>
<p>Plenty of problems have emerged with <a href="https://theconversation.com/jobkeeper-payment-how-will-it-work-who-will-miss-out-and-how-to-get-it-135189">limits on coverage</a>. </p>
<p>Some reflect the difficulty of defining a “job” in an environment in which permanent employment has been eroded in favour of casual employment and contracting and the gig economy. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-tweak-jobkeeper-if-we-must-138321">How to tweak JobKeeper, if we must</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Others seem arbitrary, such as the effective exclusion of local government and university employees, and workers whose employers are companies owned by foreign governments.</p>
<p>There will be bigger problems as time goes on.</p>
<h2>Working life will change</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334594/original/file-20200513-156629-xjh02r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334594/original/file-20200513-156629-xjh02r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334594/original/file-20200513-156629-xjh02r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334594/original/file-20200513-156629-xjh02r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334594/original/file-20200513-156629-xjh02r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1220&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334594/original/file-20200513-156629-xjh02r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1220&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334594/original/file-20200513-156629-xjh02r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1220&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many workers will need to move.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peed/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>JobKeeper helps workers keep their existing jobs, but it can’t do anything for those who are already unemployed, who leave their jobs, or who need to switch employers.</p>
<p>As the crisis continues, the number in these categories is going to grow, while the number of workers protected by the scheme will shrink.</p>
<p>In six months time, when JobKeeper is due to end, it seems reasonable to assume that most of the restrictions requiring businesses to close their doors will have been lifted. </p>
<p>Shops, cafes, gyms and bars will be open, with adaptations for social distancing.</p>
<p>But other parts of the economy won’t be anything like the “normal” that existed before the crisis.</p>
<p>Even after the domestic restrictions end, large-scale international travel won’t resume until an effective vaccine is found and distributed widely enough so that (at a minimum) all intending travellers can be vaccinated.</p>
<p>Tourism will be very different, as will work and commerce, with the shift to online working, shopping and medicine only partly reversed.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-time-is-different-australias-tourist-numbers-may-take-years-to-recover-131894">This time is different: Australia's tourist numbers may take years to recover</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A much smaller number of people coming into the country (even if long-term arrivals are be allowed in subject to quarantine) means weaker construction and education industries.</p>
<p>And even if we recover fully, our customers in the rest of the world will not. Europe is already in a deep recession. The pandemic was slow to reach the United States, but the likely impacts on both health and the economy look to be even worse.</p>
<p>These shocks would be a challenge even to a strong economy. But Australia’s performance before the crisis was sluggish at best. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jobs-market-is-nowhere-near-as-good-as-youve-heard-and-its-changing-us-132249">The jobs market is nowhere near as good as you've heard, and it's changing us</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Unemployment had barely come down from the levels reached during the global financial crisis and under-employment had reached all time highs. Inflation was persistently below the Reserve Bank’s target range, reflecting the overall weakness of the economy.</p>
<p>In these circumstances, the idea that the economy will magically “snap back” to normal once restrictions are lifted is a dangerous fantasy. </p>
<p>If we are to avoid an era of sustained high unemployment similar to the one we had in the early 1990s, the government must act to stop it happening.</p>
<h2>JobKeeper should be made portable</h2>
<p>The first step should be to convert JobKeeper into a wage-subsidy program, in the hands of workers, not tied to previous employment. Unemployed workers could assign the subsidy to whichever employer willing to hire them under standard wages and conditions.</p>
<p>There are plenty of difficulties with such a program. The most immediate is the need to ensure that it creates additional jobs, rather than allowing employers to sack existing workers and replace them with subsidised new hires.</p>
<p>A second lot of problems arises, as with JobKeeper, because of the increasing prevalence of non-standard forms of employment.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-huge-coronavirus-stimulus-package-the-government-might-still-need-to-pay-more-136503">Despite huge coronavirus stimulus package, the government might still need to pay more</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These problems are not reasons to abandon the idea of wage subsidies. Rather, they imply that the government should be thinking about these problems now, rather than deferring the problem with the assertion that everything will return to normal in six months.</p>
<p>Much more will be needed to avoid mass unemployment. </p>
<p>Public services such as health and education will need to employ more people to deal with the extra requirements of social distancing, and the need for training and retraining. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-ailing-aged-care-system-shows-you-cant-skimp-on-nursing-care-115565">Our ailing aged care system shows you can't skimp on nursing care</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Restructuring the economy will require the abandonment of free-market doctrine in favour of direct government involvement, including public ownership where necessary, at least for a while. </p>
<p>And while it is appropriate to meet the immediate needs of the economy through increased borrowing, we will ultimately need increased revenue, and we will probably need to forgo the lavish legislated tax cuts that were due to kick in from the mid-2020s.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We are going to need some sort of wage subsidy well beyond six months. The best kind of subsidy would be portable.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1383212020-05-13T05:25:10Z2020-05-13T05:25:10ZHow to tweak JobKeeper, if we must<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334568/original/file-20200513-82357-nii4pl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1148%2C338%2C2836%2C1512&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>JobKeeper was always <a href="https://theconversation.com/jobkeeper-is-quick-dirty-and-effective-there-was-no-time-to-make-it-perfect-135195">quick and dirty</a>. Its design was far from perfect, with shortcomings I and others <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-130-billion-jobkeeper-payment-what-the-experts-think-135043">cautioned against</a>. </p>
<p>These were forgiven in the face of an impending calamity, but the health interventions have worked so well the generosity of the economic interventions is being reconsidered. </p>
<p>In light of a report the treasury is <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/coronavirus-australia-jobkeeper-shock-as-pm-considers-shakeup-of-1500-fortnightly-payment/news-story/0ebefb2dff2a92d6949f46f51f026bea">reevaluating</a> the design of JobKeeper, it’s worth setting out where the scheme falls short and how it could be tweaked.</p>
<h2>The fixed per-worker subsidy was a bad idea</h2>
<p>The big flaw in JobKeeper is that it is paid as a fixed amount per worker, regardless of the hours worked or wage earned.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 economic crisis stems from businesses losing money and laying off workers due to a lack of customers – either voluntarily or by government fiat.</p>
<p>The ideal response would be to <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59b0bb01f9a61e09f11924fa/t/5e7143b9c53bc84841f00ff4/1584481210134/How_to_Help_American_Businesses_Endure_and_Jobs_Survive.pdf">replace that lost revenue</a> on the condition that businesses maintain their workers’ hours and wages. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/that-estimate-of-6-6-million-australians-on-jobkeeper-it-tells-us-how-it-can-be-improved-137237">That estimate of 6.6 million Australians on JobKeeper, it tells us how it can be improved</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>With that condition, there would be no need to tie the amount of the subsidy to the number of workers on the payroll.</p>
<p>Doing so will save some firms and their workers’ jobs. But those with low margins and large fixed costs such as rent will be undercompensated, and others will be overcompensated.</p>
<p>Forcing firms to pay the entire subsidy to their workers (even where it means giving them a pay rise) limits their ability to use it to offset other costs. And it leads to all sorts of inequities among workers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323914/original/file-20200330-146705-7jrmw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323914/original/file-20200330-146705-7jrmw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323914/original/file-20200330-146705-7jrmw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323914/original/file-20200330-146705-7jrmw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323914/original/file-20200330-146705-7jrmw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=856&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323914/original/file-20200330-146705-7jrmw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=856&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323914/original/file-20200330-146705-7jrmw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=856&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the scheme must be tied to payroll, there are far better ways.</p>
<p>It could instead cover a portion of total payroll up to a ceiling with some additional support for non-payroll costs, of the kind offered in the <a href="https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/coronavirus-relief-options/paycheck-protection-program">United States</a> and other countries. </p>
<p>To ensure no business got too much, the entire payment could be capped so the business made no more under JobKeeper than it did before the crisis.</p>
<h2>Pay it up front and tax it back later if need be</h2>
<p>Most businesses are eligible for JobKeeper if they expect turnover to fall by at least 30% in the coming quarter (or month if turnover is more than $20 million).</p>
<p>If things go better than expected and they end up not needing that much JobKeeper, they get to keep what’s been paid to them for the entire six-month period, as long as their expectation was genuine.</p>
<p>As the advice from the Tax Office <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/General/JobKeeper-Payment/In-detail/Employers--frequently-asked-JobKeeper-questions/">puts it</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We will accept your assessment of these turnovers, unless we have reason to believe that your calculation of your projected GST turnover was not reasonable.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But reasonable expectations are hard to police.</p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/SHamiltonian/status/1242652723910074369?s=20">A better approach</a> would be to pay businesses up front some proportion of total payroll for the same time period in the previous year.</p>
<p>Then, after the fact, what they are eligible for could be calculated based on actual payroll.</p>
<p>Any difference could be reconciled through the ordinary tax return process. Anything overpaid could be taxed back and any extra due could be paid out.</p>
<p>This would be simpler, clearer and better targeted, and solve the cash-flow problems businesses are complaining about.</p>
<h2>Six months won’t be long enough for some</h2>
<p>The scheme is set to end after six months on September 27 regardless of economic conditions.</p>
<p>Some businesses in some sectors are already back at work and others will come back soon. But some, such as those affected by the international travel ban, will be out of action until next year.</p>
<p>For those businesses that recover quickly, support will be provided long after it is needed. But for some others, the maximum six-month time frame will be too short.</p>
<p>A better approach would be to tie the duration to objective benchmarks tailored to particular sectors (such as the end of the international travel ban, for instance).</p>
<h2>Extend it to workers who have missed out</h2>
<p>Short-term casuals, most temporary visa holders, workers at certain foreign-controlled businesses, and employees at most universities were left out despite many of them working in the hardest-hit industries.</p>
<p>The reported <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/transcripts/interview-laura-jayes-first-edition-sky-news-12">underspend</a> on JobKeeper makes these omissions all the more puzzling.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-temporary-migrants-need-jobkeeper-135688">Why temporary migrants need JobKeeper</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There was never a good reason – <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-temporary-migrants-need-jobkeeper-135688">morally or economically</a> – to exclude these people, and the budgetary constraint has turned out not to be an issue.</p>
<p>If changes to JobKeeper are to be made, they should be offered it immediately.</p>
<h2>The Treasurer could fix all this, but he should wait</h2>
<p>The JobKeeper legislation is merely a shell, with the detail stipulated in <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2020L00419">regulations</a> imposed at the behest of the Treasurer. </p>
<p>This gives him discretion to make whatever changes he sees fit.</p>
<p>But whether he should make changes is a tough call.</p>
<p>There are clear flaws in the current system, and for many businesses it could be wound up earlier as the outlook has changed somewhat for the better.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/quick-dirty-effective-there-was-no-time-to-make-jobkeeper-perfect-135195">Quick, dirty, effective: there was no time to make JobKeeper perfect</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But the government made a clear commitment to these millions of businesses and workers to maintain a certain level of support for the full six months.</p>
<p>The last thing anyone needs right now, when the confidence of consumers and businesses is more critical than ever, is to have the government pull out the rug it extended.</p>
<p>While there’s a lot the treasurer could do, there’s also a good case for leaving things for now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138321/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Hamilton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s a lot the treasurer could do, but there’s an argument for leaving things as they are.Steven Hamilton, Visiting Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1365592020-05-03T15:26:36Z2020-05-03T15:26:36ZEmploying youth during the coronavirus pandemic is a good investment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330231/original/file-20200423-47794-1iwqivr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1810%2C1353&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Keeping young Canadians working during the global pandemic is important for a host of reasons.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pixabay)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent announcement of an <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cerb-emergency-benefits-trudeau-1.5532767">extension of the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) to part-time workers</a> is good news for young people in Canada. This may prove to be even more important to young people’s well-being than the subsequent announcement by the federal government that students in higher education can receive <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2020/04/22/support-students-and-new-grads-affected-covid-19">as much as $1,750 this summer</a>. Skills that cannot be learned in the classroom can be developed through continued participation in the paid labour market. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200409/dq200409a-eng.htm">Canadian Labour Force Survey, conducted in the third week in March</a>, shows that about 30 per cent of workers under aged 30 were employed part-time in their primary job in March 2020, compared to only 13 per cent among those over 30.</p>
<p>For those at the beginning of their working lives, the long-term impact of earnings lost to COVID-19 could be particularly large. Gaining work experience during the pandemic will help Canada’s young people to obtain the skills they’ll need in a post-pandemic world. </p>
<p>Young people will still need the communication and organizational skills that part-time work has traditionally provided them. They will need to learn how to work in teams, to manage their time and to accept guidance. These skills need to be learned by continuous practice. The incentive to practise these skills is high when work is paid.</p>
<p>Young people tend to be concentrated in a few key sectors of the Canadian labour market. In March 2020, the retail sector employed 18 per cent of workers under age 30, and the accommodation and food services sector a further 15 per cent. Workers older than 30 made up only five per cent of those employed in the sector prior to COVID-19. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330212/original/file-20200423-47820-14q32to.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C270%2C6016%2C3692&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330212/original/file-20200423-47820-14q32to.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330212/original/file-20200423-47820-14q32to.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330212/original/file-20200423-47820-14q32to.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330212/original/file-20200423-47820-14q32to.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330212/original/file-20200423-47820-14q32to.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330212/original/file-20200423-47820-14q32to.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many Canadian young people work in the accommodation and food services sector.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Students who are completing their winter semesters are now facing the sudden end of on-campus jobs and a much-reduced market for summer jobs. Many students lost campus or other part-time jobs with the closure of restaurants, hotels and all recreational facilities towards the end of March. </p>
<p>Part-time work may be the best way to protect young people from the long-term labour market consequences of COVID-19. Because young people have relatively little work experience, losing the opportunity to obtain on-the-job skills may have more permanent consequences for their earnings potential. </p>
<p>The on-the-job learning curve is steepest at the beginning of working lives. To mitigate the long-term consequences of COVID-19 for labour productivity, this age group needs to be given particular support to continue working during the pandemic in essential jobs.</p>
<h2>Critical years</h2>
<p>There are also non-economic reasons why young people need strong support. Some <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.57.3.416">social psychologists</a> consider the years between 18 and 25 to be critical for the lifelong formation of societal views. Evidence from the United States suggests that regional recessions in the 1970s had <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt040">long-term effects on opinions about the efficacy of government</a> on respondents who experienced economic downturns in this age group. The additional psychological effects of social isolation and a pause in skills development may be particularly long-lasting for youth.</p>
<p>Recent history shows the need to protect the well-being of populations facing sudden joblessness and great uncertainty. The fall of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991 resulted in profoundly negative effects on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2013.05.007">the well-being</a> and <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/0895330053147921">mortality</a> of Soviet citizens. Social supports evaporated overnight. The huge declines in real incomes and increases in uncertainty caused by this event affected <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/26e5/43ae5680b2f542c7ec6c894cf4cf34bf282f.pdf,%20https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X98000977">life expectancy</a> in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(98)00113-2">former Soviet Union</a> countries for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10826080500521664">many years</a>. </p>
<h2>Young workers affected immediately</h2>
<p>A comparison of usual-versus-actual hours worked in the March Labour Force Survey shows that COVID-19 was already having a pronounced effect on sectors employing youth even before non-essential businesses were told to close.</p>
<p>Among those working in accommodation and food services, hours of work in the week between March 15th to 21st were reduced from an average of 30 to less than 20. Those in retail reported usual work hours of 32 and actual of about 27.</p>
<p>Workers in other sectors also reported reductions in average hours worked in the March Labour Force Survey, but these were less dramatic than those for accommodation and food services. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330211/original/file-20200423-47841-scwaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330211/original/file-20200423-47841-scwaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330211/original/file-20200423-47841-scwaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330211/original/file-20200423-47841-scwaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330211/original/file-20200423-47841-scwaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330211/original/file-20200423-47841-scwaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330211/original/file-20200423-47841-scwaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The loss of hours was dramatic in March for those in the food services sector.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pixabay)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, in public administration, the average actual hours worked were reduced from 32 to 27, and in manufacturing, actual hours were on average 29 versus normal hours of 35. Those in mining and extractive industries and in agriculture also reported significant differences between normal and actual hours.</p>
<p>That 10-hour difference between normal and actual hours worked in accommodation and food services will have been all the more keenly felt because these workers were relatively low paid. Average earnings were just above $16 an hour in this sector, and about $20 an hour in retail. </p>
<p>In durable goods manufacturing, hourly wages were about $29 an hour, similar to the average wages of those in health care and social assistance.</p>
<h2>CERB will help</h2>
<p>Now that the CERB allows people to work part-time without becoming ineligible, many young people will be incentivized to work in jobs for which demand has increased during the COVID-19 shutdown. </p>
<p>This could mean working part-time to deliver groceries, medicines or other online orders, or working part-time from home. </p>
<p>As well, some may work in the health sector, may take on cleaning jobs, provide logistical support for COVID-19 testing or learn while on the job to perform other essential functions.</p>
<p>Even if these jobs aren’t well-paid, the support of CERB will keep these young people investing in their future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Now that Canadian youth can work part-time without becoming ineligible for government assistance, many will be incentivized to work in jobs in increased demand during the COVID-19 shutdown.Louise Grogan, Professor of Economics, University of GuelphLucia Costanzo, Data Analyst, Researcher, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1372372020-04-29T06:18:25Z2020-04-29T06:18:25ZThat estimate of 6.6 million Australians on JobKeeper, it tells us how it can be improved<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331259/original/file-20200429-51466-1hxp3yb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C86%2C3104%2C1374&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-130-billion-jobkeeper-payment-what-the-experts-think-135043">JobKeeper</a> is by “no means perfect”. Treasury Secretary Stephen Kennedy <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/commsen/422cff82-46f7-404d-9ca7-c83f558e9551/toc_pdf/Senate%20Select%20Committee%20on%20COVID-19_2020_04_28_7677.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22committees/commsen/422cff82-46f7-404d-9ca7-c83f558e9551/0000%22">used those exact words</a> when he appeared before a Senate committee on COVID-19 on Tuesday, going on to observe that getting it right would “require continuous work”.</p>
<p>We have dug into the JobKeeper numbers to work out how it could be improved.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298249/original/file-20191023-149545-1ucatsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298249/original/file-20191023-149545-1ucatsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298249/original/file-20191023-149545-1ucatsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298249/original/file-20191023-149545-1ucatsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298249/original/file-20191023-149545-1ucatsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298249/original/file-20191023-149545-1ucatsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298249/original/file-20191023-149545-1ucatsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298249/original/file-20191023-149545-1ucatsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Room for improvement. Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Morrison government announced JobKeeper on March 30. For a cost of A$130 billion, employers of eligible workers in eligible businesses will receive a flat $1,500 per fortnight wage subsidy for up to six months, irrespective of the worker’s previous wage.</p>
<p>The most striking insight from those figures is the number of workers that are expected to receive the payment – more than 6.6 million, <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1022/6mworkersnote_rwt.pdf?1588140290">six out of every ten</a> private sector workers.</p>
<p>It doesn’t quite jell with another number – the number of workers treasury expects JobKeeper to keep in work.</p>
<p>We can get an idea of this from Treasurer Frydenberg’s statement on <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/media-releases/jobkeeper-payment-supporting-millions-jobs">April 14</a> that “treasury estimates the unemployment rate would be 5 percentage points higher without JobKeeper.”</p>
<p>The labour force is 13.7 million. Allowing for the fact that some of the workers who lose jobs will withdraw from the labour market and not be counted as unemployed, the implication is that JobKeeper will save, <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1022/6mworkersnote_rwt.pdf?1588140290">at most</a>, one million jobs.</p>
<h2>Payments to 6.6 million, to save 1 million</h2>
<p>Put crudely, JobKeeper will go to 6.6 million Australians in order to save the jobs of around one million</p>
<p>Of course, it is also designed to benefit workers who lose hours but are still employed. Taking this into account explains only some of the difference. </p>
<p>Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe expects total hours worked to fall by <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2020/sp-gov-2020-04-21.html">around 20%</a> over the first half of the year, <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1022/6mworkersnote_rwt.pdf?1588140290">2.6 million</a> full time jobs’ worth. That is a long way short of 6.6 million.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/quick-dirty-effective-there-was-no-time-to-make-jobkeeper-perfect-135195">Quick, dirty, effective: there was no time to make JobKeeper perfect</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It isn’t surprising that coverage of JobKeeper is broader than predicted job loss. That was inherent in the design. What is surprising is the size of gap between the predicted number of payments and the predicted number of jobs at risk. This has three important implications.</p>
<h2>1. Mutual obligation</h2>
<p>If JobKeeper does end up being paid in the name of 6.6 million Australians rather than the one million or so that would need it to stay in work, it will be a substantial subsidy to business. Many businesses will have received $1500 per fortnight for workers they would have kept on anyway.</p>
<p>This can be justified as a means of putting those businesses on a stronger footing to stay afloat during the shutdown and expand when it is over, maintaining high employment into the future. But such support comes with an obligation. Businesses that receive this sort of wage subsidy are implicitly entering into a contract with the community to maintain employment when JobSeeker ends. This commitment should be made explicit.</p>
<h2>2. Investigation</h2>
<p>The incredibly rapid onset of COVID-19 means the eligibility criteria for JobKeeper are based on changes in monthly revenue. Any other approach would have delayed payments. But using revenue as a trigger provides an incentive for businesses to manipulate month-to-month revenue.</p>
<p>That makes it imperative that JobKeeper scheme is accompanied by substantial monitoring. One way to do it is by cross-referencing claims for JobKeeper with other data on the impact of COVID-19.</p>
<p>As an example, the chart below compares the actual size of falls in employment by industry between mid March and early April with shares of inquiries to the Tax office about JobKeeper by industry. Some industries appear to be outliers – with relatively high shares of inquiries but relatively small job losses.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Jobs lost versus inquiries about JobKeeper by industry</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331301/original/file-20200429-51508-18negs8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331301/original/file-20200429-51508-18negs8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331301/original/file-20200429-51508-18negs8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331301/original/file-20200429-51508-18negs8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331301/original/file-20200429-51508-18negs8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331301/original/file-20200429-51508-18negs8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331301/original/file-20200429-51508-18negs8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331301/original/file-20200429-51508-18negs8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1022/6mworkersnote_rwt.pdf?1588140290">ABS 6160.0.55.001, ATO figures via news.com.au</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>The chart is rudimentary. </p>
<p>It shows the accommodation and food services industry lost the most jobs, but nowhere near the most inquires about JobKeeper.</p>
<p>The most were in the professional, scientific and technical services industry, which lost nowhere near as many jobs.</p>
<p>As time goes on, it should be possible to monitor claims in ways that are more sophisticated.</p>
<h2>3. Scope to extend JobKeeper</h2>
<p>Forecasts – even those based on the most relevant and up-to-date information – can be wrong. This isn’t a criticism. Making forecasts is hard.</p>
<p>But it might be that 6.6 million turns out to be an overestimate. If so, it creates an opportunity.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-temporary-migrants-need-jobkeeper-135688">Why temporary migrants need JobKeeper</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It would allow JobKeeper to be extended to some of the workers who at present miss out, among them casual employees in their job for less than 12 months and the temporary visa holders who are currently excluded.</p>
<p>Such a change would be consistent with the stated goal of trying to keep workers <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/coronavirus/jobkeeper">connected to their workforce</a>. It will be needed when the crisis is over, and it would be the right thing to do for equity, ensuring there is a safety net for all of us.</p>
<p>The treasury secretary is correct. JobKeeper should be anything but set and forget.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137237/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Wilkins receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Jobkeeper is far from perfect and open to abuse. On the face of it, it supports 6.6 million wages to save 1 million jobs.Roger Wilkins, Professorial Fellow and Deputy Director (Research), HILDA Survey, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of MelbourneJeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1368562020-04-26T19:38:49Z2020-04-26T19:38:49ZPermanently raising the Child Care Subsidy is an economic opportunity too good to miss<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330263/original/file-20200424-126796-c7oud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian government’s COVID-19 rescue package for the child-care sector provides a lifeline for centres and parents alike. </p>
<p>Child-care centres now have a guaranteed stream of income and support for wage costs, helping them to stay in business through the crisis. For working parents, there’s the relief child care will be available through the crisis and beyond. Better yet, the care is free. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-has-rescued-childcare-from-covid-19-collapse-but-the-details-are-still-murky-134798">Morrison has rescued childcare from COVID-19 collapse – but the details are still murky</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But what happens after the shutdown is over? </p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison has emphasised <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-02/coronavirus-child-care-free-scott-morrison-announcement/12114110">this is a temporary measure</a>, set to run for six months. But parents, having tasted life free of child-care costs, won’t resume paying without a fight. </p>
<p>There is also an economic case for the government to invest more in child care to help rebuild the economy after the health crisis is over.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320030/original/file-20200312-116261-a6ugi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=90&fit=crop&dpr=2" alt="Sign up to The Conversation" width="100%"></a></p>
<h2>Australian child-care costs are high</h2>
<p>Out-of-pocket child-care costs in Australia have been relatively high by international standards.</p>
<p>The standing <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/child-care-subsidy">Commonwealth Child Care Subsidy</a> is means-tested. Even for a family getting the maximum subsidy (85% of costs for households with income less than <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/child-care-subsidy/how-much-you-can-get/your-income-can-affect-it">A$68,000</a>) it costs about A$9,000 a year to have two children in full-time care. For a family where each parent earns A$80,000, the cost is about A$26,000 a year. </p>
<p>Full-time net child-care costs absorb about a <a href="https://data.oecd.org/benwage/net-childcare-costs.htm">quarter</a> of household income for an average-earning couple with two young children in Australia. The <a href="https://data.oecd.org/benwage/net-childcare-costs.htm">OECD average is 11%</a>. Almost half of Australian parents with children under five <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/3127664/HILDA-Statistical-Report-2019.pdf">say they struggle</a> with the cost. </p>
<h2>Deterring workforce participation</h2>
<p>The high cost of child care doesn’t just drain family incomes. It has a big impact on workforce participation, particularly for women.</p>
<p>Women are more likely to be a family’s “second earner”, reducing their paid work hours to accommodate caring responsibilities. For many, child-care costs interact with other elements of Australia’s tax and benefit system to make extra hours of paid work financially unattractive. </p>
<p>The chart below shows the “workforce disincentive rate” – the proportion of income from an extra day’s work lost through higher taxes, reduced family payments and child-care costs – for second earners. The disincentive rates are high across the board, but particularly punishing for second earners thinking of taking on a fourth or fifth day of paid work. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330284/original/file-20200424-126779-igdyn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330284/original/file-20200424-126779-igdyn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330284/original/file-20200424-126779-igdyn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330284/original/file-20200424-126779-igdyn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330284/original/file-20200424-126779-igdyn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330284/original/file-20200424-126779-igdyn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330284/original/file-20200424-126779-igdyn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330284/original/file-20200424-126779-igdyn8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Modelling is based on two parents earning the same full-time salary, with two children requiring child care. The cost of child care is assumed to be $110 a day per child. It also assumes the family is renting and receiving rent assistance if applicable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>For example, consider a household with two young children where both parents would earn A$60,000 a year if they worked full-time. Dad works full-time and mum three days a week. </p>
<p>If mum decided to take on an extra day, she would lose more than 90% of the income for that fourth day in child-care costs, tax and reduced family payments. For comparison, someone earning more than A$180,000 and paying the top marginal tax rate (shown by the black line in the graph) only loses about 47% of additional income. </p>
<p>That leaves mum working for about A$2 an hour on her fourth day; and for nothing on her fifth day.</p>
<p>Is it any wonder the “<a href="https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/tax-social-policy-and-gender">1.5 earner model</a>” – where dad works full-time and mum part-time – has become the norm in Australia?</p>
<p>The following graph shows the cost of child care is the biggest contributor to these high workforce disincentive rates. Reducing that cost would do more than any other policy change to boost workforce participation for mothers of young children. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330285/original/file-20200424-126775-1gqqp5j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330285/original/file-20200424-126775-1gqqp5j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330285/original/file-20200424-126775-1gqqp5j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330285/original/file-20200424-126775-1gqqp5j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330285/original/file-20200424-126775-1gqqp5j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330285/original/file-20200424-126775-1gqqp5j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330285/original/file-20200424-126775-1gqqp5j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330285/original/file-20200424-126775-1gqqp5j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Modelling is based on two parents earning the same full-time salary, with two children requiring child care. Every day of work for the second earner results in exactly one day of approved childcare. The cost of child care is assumed to be $110 a day per child. It also assumes the family is renting and receiving rent assistance if applicable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>But ‘free’ child care doesn’t come cheap</h2>
<p>The Child Care Subsidy cost the federal government <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/bp1/download/bp1.pdf">A$8 billion</a> last financial year. Making child care free would almost triple that cost. In fact, it could be higher, since free child care would trigger a jump in demand, including by those not in the paid workforce.</p>
<p>There is an attractive simplicity to universal child care, and it would likely lead to a big economic payoff in workforce participation, at least over the medium term (5-10 years). </p>
<p>But scrapping means-testing completely would be a radical change to the system and potentially raise concerns about fairness. Under a universal scheme, all parents of young children would be able to access more than $25,000 in subsidies for each child. This would be true even for high-income parents who currently receive no Child Care Subsidy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hilda-findings-on-australian-families-experience-of-childcare-should-be-a-call-to-arms-for-government-120417">HILDA findings on Australian families' experience of childcare should be a call-to-arms for government</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A cheaper and less radical alternative would be raising and simplifying the Child Care Subsidy to reduce the disincentives to work. </p>
<p>Our modelling suggests a subsidy of 95% of child-care costs for low-income families, tapering down slowly to zero as family income increases, would cost taxpayers an additional A$5 billion a year, compared with at least A$14 billion more for a universal scheme.</p>
<p>It would enable many women who want to increase their paid work to do so, support the post-crisis recovery and boost GDP by about $A11 billion a year in the medium term through higher workforce participation. </p>
<p>For policymakers seeking high-return government initiatives to boost the economy, this is an opportunity too good to miss.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Danielle Wood and Owain Emslie do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There is a strong economic case for a higher child-care subsidy to help rebuild the Australian economy after the coronavirus crisis.Danielle Wood, Program Director, Budget Policy and Institutional Reform, Grattan InstituteKate Griffiths, Fellow, Grattan InstituteOwain Emslie, Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1369582020-04-23T02:07:59Z2020-04-23T02:07:59ZThe attacks are misguided: in a time of crisis the Bureau of Statistics is serving us well<p>In critical times, we expect our public institutions to step up. Inevitably, we are going to judge them, as we should, because it is important that they get decisions right.</p>
<p>But judgements about an institution have to be based on an informed understanding of what it is doing; and what are the right and wrong ways for it to go about its job.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329641/original/file-20200422-13262-19o8k2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329641/original/file-20200422-13262-19o8k2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329641/original/file-20200422-13262-19o8k2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329641/original/file-20200422-13262-19o8k2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329641/original/file-20200422-13262-19o8k2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1215&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329641/original/file-20200422-13262-19o8k2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1215&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329641/original/file-20200422-13262-19o8k2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1215&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Last week the Daily Telegraph commentator Terry McCrann launched a <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/terry-mccrann/terry-mccrann-canberras-sick-joke-on-jobless-numbers/news-story/ec917c929dea2c8675ac389a9e418182">broadside</a> against the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).</p>
<p>McCrann lambasted the ABS for having released labour force survey statistics that he called ‘hopelessly out of date’, relating to the period from March 1 to 14.</p>
<p>Instead, he argued, we should be aiming for the same “real-time” weekly figures on unemployment as in the United States.</p>
<p>There are three things wrong with McCrann’s claims.</p>
<p>First, the ABS moved at high speed to provide extra real-time measures of the effect of COVID-19 on the Australian economy. Take a quick visit to <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/covid19">www.abs.gov.au/covid19</a>.</p>
<p>The ABS began a new weekly survey of 1000 businesses on March 19. The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5676.0.55.003">near real-time results</a> are providing valuable information on topics such as how businesses are adjusting hours worked by their employees.</p>
<h2>The ABS has stepped up, quickly</h2>
<p>This week saw the release of the initial versions of two extra publications. One is based on a survey of 1000 Australian <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4940.0">households</a> from the first week of April. It includes information on the impact of COVID-19 on jobs and hours worked by members of those households.</p>
<p>The other is derived from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6160.0.55.001">business payroll information</a> from the Australian Tax Office. It gives a comprehensive perspective on what is happening to jobs. The data released this week covers the period to April 4, with updates to follow every two weeks.</p>
<p>These new data sources do record the fast loss of jobs and the large drop in hours worked that were expected. They will provide an important input to government decisions on what policies are needed in these difficult times. The speed at which the ABS has put these data together is impressive.</p>
<h2>Other countries work no faster</h2>
<p>Second, the real-time data from the United States is the number of new claims being made for unemployment benefits. That is a completely different data series to the Labour Force Survey. </p>
<p>Far from being real-time, labour force numbers for the United States for March, released by its Bureau of Labor Statistics in early April, relate to exactly the same time period as in Australia. </p>
<p>It’s certainly true, however, that Australia could make better use of its unemployment benefit payment data. The most recent release of those data is from last December. </p>
<p>An excellent way forward would be for the ABS to partner with the Department of Social Services (in the same way as it has with the Tax Office) to start providing two-weekly releases of detailed data on the number of Job Seeker and Job Keeper payments.</p>
<h2>Good reasons for the labour force survey</h2>
<p>Third, getting labour force numbers from the ABS in the usual way and supplementing them with additional surveys is the right way to go. The new data are especially helpful in the short term. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-charts-that-show-coronavirus-pushing-up-to-a-quarter-of-the-workforce-out-of-work-136603">The charts that show coronavirus pushing up to a quarter of the workforce out of work</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As the economy evolves the well understood and long running Labour Force survey data will become increasingly important. It remains our most authoritative way to track what is happening in the labour market. As well, it provides essential links to how the economy has responded to downturns and economic recoveries in the past. </p>
<p>So let’s keep our criticism for when an institution really does get it wrong. At a time where the value of accurate and relevant information on economy activity is at a premium, we’re lucky to have the ABS.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He does not have any association with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (apart from being a regular user of their data). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Wilkins receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Statistics Advisory Group.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bob Gregory, John Freebairn, and Sue Richardson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ABS is providing near real-time data like never before. It’s labour force survey remains the most authorative way of tracking the labour market.Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of MelbourneBob Gregory, Professor of Economics, Australian National UniversityJohn Freebairn, Professor, Department of Economics, The University of MelbourneRoger Wilkins, Professorial Fellow and Deputy Director (Research), HILDA Survey, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of MelbourneSue Richardson, Adjunct professor, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1340162020-03-18T01:30:37Z2020-03-18T01:30:37ZHere’s a bright idea should schools have to close: enlist childcare workers as nannies for health workers<p>As social distancing measures to restrain coronavirus become <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/travel-warning-raised-indoor-mass-gatherings-over-100-people-prohibited-20200318-p54b85.html">increasingly aggressive</a>, one of the big points of contention is whether (and for how long) schools and childcare centres should be closed. </p>
<p>The prime minister says his best advice at the moment is that it is not necessary<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/travel-warning-raised-indoor-mass-gatherings-over-100-people-prohibited-20200318-p54b85.html"> at this stage</a> (although many private schools are choosing to close).</p>
<p>One concern about closing schools is the potential of closures to devastate the health system as health care workers leave their posts to care for their children.</p>
<p>The disruption that would occur from the closure of schools around this country, make no mistake, would be severe. The prime minister is right to be concerned about the impacts on the health workforce. Our calculations, based on the Australian census, suggest 28% of Australia’s more than 700,000 doctors, nurses and aged care workers have young dependent children. </p>
<p>Losing even a fraction of them from the workforce at the peak of the crisis will cost lives.</p>
<h2>We don’t want to lose health care workers</h2>
<p>Many have partners who can care for children during the peak of the health crisis.</p>
<p>But some do not: there are about 45,000 households with children aged 14 or younger either headed by a sole parent who is a medical professional, or by two parents both of whom are medical professionals.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321180/original/file-20200318-60932-opsln7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321180/original/file-20200318-60932-opsln7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321180/original/file-20200318-60932-opsln7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321180/original/file-20200318-60932-opsln7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321180/original/file-20200318-60932-opsln7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321180/original/file-20200318-60932-opsln7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321180/original/file-20200318-60932-opsln7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321180/original/file-20200318-60932-opsln7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Frontline health staff include medical practitioners, nurses, health and welfare support workers, personal carers. We have used the number of frontline health staff aged under 45 with children as a proxy for the number with young children.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: ABS Census 2016</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many who might normally rely on their parents for support will want to avoid doing so, given older people are among those most at risk of serious COVID-19 infection.</p>
<p>So here’s a proposal to significantly reduce the human cost of school and childcare centre closures should they become necessary.</p>
<h2>Employing child carers as nannies ought to work</h2>
<p>If Australia’s childcare centres are closed, more than 125,000 trained childcare workers, all with appropriate vetting, will not be working. The casual staff, in particular, will see their incomes dry up. </p>
<p>Our proposal is to redeploy childcare workers as nannies for the health care professionals who do not have alternative childcare support. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-schools-are-closing-because-of-coronavirus-but-should-they-be-133432">Australian schools are closing because of coronavirus, but should they be?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This would keep the childcare workers employed and, most importantly, enable our health care professionals to keep working. </p>
<p>We would be trading capacity of un-utilised childcare professionals for capacity of overextended medical professionals.</p>
<p>Across Australia there is one childcare worker for every 1.6 frontline health care workers with younger dependants, although this ratio varies substantially between states, and no doubt between different local areas.</p>
<p>But the bottom line is almost all health care workers who need help should be able to get it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321181/original/file-20200318-60875-o6zzk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321181/original/file-20200318-60875-o6zzk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321181/original/file-20200318-60875-o6zzk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321181/original/file-20200318-60875-o6zzk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321181/original/file-20200318-60875-o6zzk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321181/original/file-20200318-60875-o6zzk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321181/original/file-20200318-60875-o6zzk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321181/original/file-20200318-60875-o6zzk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: ABS Census 2016</span></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>A downside is that health care workers are more likely than many other workers to be exposed to the virus, so their children might be at greater risk of infection. </p>
<p>This would increase the risk of infection for enlisted nannies. For that reason, all childcare professionals at higher risk of serious infection should be excluded from the scheme. </p>
<p>No one would be compelled to participate, but for many childcare workers the promise of a stable income and the capacity to contribute to Australia’s health response is likely to be attractive.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-what-closing-schools-and-childcare-centres-would-mean-for-parents-and-casual-staff-133768">COVID-19: what closing schools and childcare centres would mean for parents and casual staff</a>
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<p>Childcare workers who have their own children to care for should be able to take them along with them. In almost all cases, the number of children under the care of a single worker would still be far below the normal childcare centre caring ratios.</p>
<p>Coordination and hiring of these frontline nannies could be arranged through the childcare centres themselves – all of which have staff well versed in rostering.</p>
<p>This plan is unusual, but we are living in unusual times. </p>
<p>Calling up our childcare workers to support frontline health workers would enable Australia to close schools and childcare centres should that be needed, and still give our health care system the best chance of treating those most in need.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134016/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathan Blane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Closing schools and childcare might take 30% of Australia’s health care workers offline. Here’s a way to keep them working.Danielle Wood, Program Director, Budget Policy and Institutional Reform, Grattan InstituteNathan Blane, Analyst, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1300652020-03-06T09:01:21Z2020-03-06T09:01:21ZWomen in Ghana: progress, but important challenges remain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318685/original/file-20200304-66112-1ornh3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ghanaian women are still awaiting passage of an affirmative action bill</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arne Hoel/Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Four years after gaining independence, Ghana acknowledged women’s contribution and activism by establishing the National Council of Women in 1960. The purpose of the council was to acknowledge the contribution and activism of women in Ghana’s independence struggle. It was meant to empower and benefit women, for example by establishing vocational training centres and day care centres.</p>
<p>Since then the country has also <a href="http://www.genced.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/ghana-scorecard-on-the-maputo-protocol.pdf">signed</a> various regional and international protocols with the aim of achieving gender equality.</p>
<p>And in 1979, the government adopted an affirmative action <a href="https://www.ippapublicpolicy.org/file/paper/5b31fddf5c105.pdf">policy</a> to increase women’s participation in government. A quota was set – women were to make up 40% of all state and public boards, councils, commissions and committees.</p>
<p>But the ambitious affirmative action guidelines have yet to yield results. The quota targets have not been met. Six decades after independence, women make up <a href="https://www.iknowpolitics.org/en/discuss/opinion-pieces/women-and-ghana%E2%80%99s-2016-parliamentary-election">only 13.1% of the members of the legislature</a>.</p>
<p>According to the World Economic Forum’s 2017 <a href="https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-gender-gap-report-2017">Global Gender Gap Report</a> Ghana lags behind other sub Saharan countries such as Rwanda and Namibia. These have achieved 20% or more female parliamentary representation.</p>
<p>The trend is not confined to government. In our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10301763.2019.1697486">research</a> we evaluated gender, equality and inclusion in Ghana. We looked at laws, policies and programmes. And we evaluated what governments, international organisations and civil society groups have done to address gender issues in the work environment.</p>
<p>We found that gender objectives have gained recognition and public policy momentum. And there has been progress, especially in terms of female participation in primary and secondary education as well as female literacy rates. But there are still big gaps. These include the fact that female participation in tertiary education remains low as does employment in professional and technical jobs.</p>
<h2>Measuring the gender gap</h2>
<p>Our evaluation used the World Economic Forum’s report. It provides a comprehensive estimate of the gender gap in countries using four criteria: economic participation and empowerment; health and survival; educational attainment; and political empowerment.</p>
<p>The gap represents the degree of inequality between men and women. For each criterion there is a list of sub-indicators. For example, the estimate on economic participation and empowerment is derived from a set of indicators. These include: labour force participation rates; wages for similar work; earned income; and the ratio of females to males among legislators, senior officials, managers, and professional and technical workers.</p>
<p>The gender gap is scored between 0 and 1 -– from an absence of equity to complete equity. We looked at both the index scores as well as the rankings. The index report assesses the gap within and across countries. For example, while Ghana is close to equality in healthy life expectancy, the score is not good enough to rank highly among other countries. The absolute score has improved but the score relative to other countries has declined.</p>
<p>When it came to the index scores for Ghana:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The main categories of health and survival and of educational attainment were close to equality (greater than 0.9).</p></li>
<li><p>Political empowerment scored poorly for equity (less than 0.5).</p></li>
<li><p>Also close to equality were: healthy life expectancy, sex ratio at birth, enrolment in primary and secondary education, share of senior officials and managers, and labour force participation.</p></li>
<li><p>The score was poor for years with a female head of state and for women in parliament and in ministerial positions.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>When it came to rankings, Ghana was:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>In the top 10% worldwide for sex ratio at birth, enrolment in secondary and primary education, senior officials and managers, and labour force participation. These can be linked to active policy decisions to improve educational access and an active gender equity programme in the public sector.</p></li>
<li><p>In the bottom 25% worldwide for women in parliament, healthy life expectancy, enrolment in tertiary education, literacy rate, and women in the professional and technical workforce.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>The obstacles</h2>
<p>These findings show that there are three obstacles for women increasing their representation in Ghanaian society. All are related to the labour force: women have relatively low rates of literacy; low participation in tertiary education; and low participation in professional occupations. For example, the male participation in tertiary education is 2.5 times that of women.</p>
<p>This in turn feeds into low participation for women in professions that require tertiary education qualifications.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/promoting-gender-equality-and-womens-empowerment-financed-gender-and-development-">African Development Fund 2008</a>, tackling the three inter-related labour market factors would make a dramatic difference to gender parity and to economic development. This is because the educational empowerment of women is linked with a number of better outcomes. These include reduced infant mortality rates and improved access to economic and political leadership opportunities.</p>
<p>There is extensive legislative and international treaty support for women’s rights and empowerment in Ghana. These range from <a href="http://www.ghanareview.com/parlia/Garticles.html">the constitution</a>,through to formal affirmative action programmes for women and the endorsement of International Labour Organisation <a href="https://www.ilo.org/gender/Aboutus/ILOandGenderEquality/lang--en/index.htm">conventions</a>.</p>
<p>The global equity reports indicate that Ghana’s policy pronouncements recognise this. And that advances have been made in reducing the gender gap across a range of criteria. But major challenges remain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ghana has ambitious policies on gender equity but is struggling to realise them.John Burgess, Professor of Human Resource Management, RMIT UniversityDesmond Tutu Ayentimi, Lecturer in Management, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.