Fear the no-grow zone: has technological innovation reached its final frontier?

The economic profession lacks a unified theory of economic growth. Textbooks and academic journals contain a plethora of models and paradigms which generate different (and sometimes contradictory) predictions about the mechanics of the growth process. Amid this intellectual confusion, an element in…

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The great stagnation: does faltering innovation spell the end for economic growth? Image from www.shutterstock.com

The economic profession lacks a unified theory of economic growth. Textbooks and academic journals contain a plethora of models and paradigms which generate different (and sometimes contradictory) predictions about the mechanics of the growth process.

Amid this intellectual confusion, an element in common to the bulk of modern growth models from Solow’s neoclassical growth theory (1956) onwards, is the central role of “technological” improvements in promoting and sustaining the long-term expansion of GDP.

In economics, technology refers to the way in which inputs to the production process are transformed into output. Technological improvements increase the productivity of inputs, meaning that more output can be obtained from the same quantity of inputs. Hence, a country cannot sustain GDP growth if its technology does not improve.

New ideas and discoveries are what lies beneath technological improvements. The discovery of electricity and the development of the internal combustion engine are just two of the several technological innovations of the 19th century, which allowed the world economy to grow so fast for the first seven decades of the 20th century.

Of course, ideas do not need to be limited to acts of engineering. Henry Ford’s decision in 1914 to pay wages well above the ongoing market rate (today we call this the “efficiency wage”) was an idea that pushed productivity as much as Ford’s other innovative mass production techniques.

For over two and a half centuries, since the first industrial revolution (1760-1830), technology advances have been at the root of an unprecedented increase in per-capita incomes in human history. But is it possible that we are coming towards the end of this era of fast economic growth?

Forget the Mayan prophecy and fear Gordon’s prediction

In August 2012, Northwestern University Professor Robert J Gordon published a paper to challenge the nearly universal assumption that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever.

Gordon’s argument is worryingly simple: unless we are able to generate a new industrial revolution (or better, a sequence of new industrial revolutions), economic growth in advanced economies will inevitably revert to close to zero by the end of this century and stay there indefinitely.

This argument draws on the observation that economic growth was effectively close to zero throughout human history until around 1750. Then, industrial revolutions happened. The first one (steam and rail-roads) caused an initial growth acceleration in those countries (particularly the UK) that adopted the new technologies.

But it was the second industrial revolution (electricity, internal combustion engine, chemicals, petroleum, running water) and spinoff inventions (aeroplanes, interstate highways, etc) that was really responsible for almost a century of rapid productivity increase between the end of 1800s and the early 1970s. It was during this phase that GDP growth reached its peak in technologically advanced economies.

We are currently experiencing the third industrial revolution (computers, the web, mobile communication). According to Gordon’s data, however, it has determined a milder and shorter-lived impulse to productivity than the second industrial revolution. Consequently, economic growth has started to decline. At the current rate of decline, growth will return to its pre-1750 level by 2100.

Clearly, a new technological push could halt the decline and start a new phase of high productivity and GDP growth. But Gordon argues that this is not likely to happen. Sure enough, we live in a world where new technological products become available almost continuously. But not all inventions are created equal.

The sharp acceleration of growth followed the second industrial revolution, not the third one, whose effects seem to have been rather limited. But the second industrial revolution consisted of inventions that, in the words of Gordon, “could happen only once”. It is therefore difficult that industrial revolutions like the second one can happen again in the future.

Or, to put it differently, technology will continue to improve. But these improvements will not be of the kind needed to give new impetus to productivity and GDP growth. Faltering innovation will ultimately lead to a future of stagnation.

Time proved the Mayans wrong. What about Gordon?

A future of near-zero growth, with stagnant per-capita incomes, is something that most (albeit not all) would fear. Without economic growth it is hard to improve living standards, reduce poverty, and promote social and human development.

But there might be reasons not to despair. First of all, Gordon’s analysis is limited in several respects. He explicitly focuses on countries at the frontier of technological innovation; that is, the UK until 1906 and the US afterwards. So, what he predicts is that economic growth in the US, and by extension in the other most technologically advanced-economies, will go down to zero by 2100.

However, the world consists of many countries that are not at the frontier. For these countries, positive growth will persist beyond 2100 until they have caught up with the US. At that point, growth will be probably zero for all countries, but at least disparities in per-capita income across countries will have been significantly reduced.

Second, predictions for the long-term are always difficult to make. This is particularly true in economics. Regardless of the quality of the data and how reasonable the underlying intuition is, any prediction on what economic dynamics might look like in 2100 is necessarily highly speculative. It is therefore unsurprising that Gordon himself sees his paper as “deliberately provocative”.

Third, arguing today that a wave of technological progress of breadth and relevance comparable to the second industrial revolution will not happen sometimes in the distant future is, again, a mere speculation.

Certainly, technological progress is not going to happen just by assumption. Some innovations might be less growth-enhancing than others. But in today’s dynamic and highly interconnected economic systems, entrepreneurs continuously seek the opportunity to innovate in order to adjust to shocks and changing environments. It is because of this “entrepreneurs’ resilience” that technological progress occurs and there are no reasons to believe that it will not eventually evolve into a new industrial revolution.

The concept of resilient dynamism — that is, the ability of organisations operating in complex and dynamic systems to adapt and respond to shocks and new challenges — is at the centre of the discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Perhaps a little wind of optimism will come down from the Swiss Alps to restore hope after Gordon’s deliberate provocation.

Join the conversation

173 Comments sorted by

  1. Stephen John Ralph

    carer

    Isn't there a point at which zero-growth might be the way to go.........can't the world hum along nicely without the need to stimulate this and that. And is this GROWTH just in the industrialised world.

    I don't see much growth in African countries, but perhaps an outrageous amount of exploitation and a lot of poverty and disease.

    The world stockmarkets seem to be an agglomeration of fickle dealings and artificial ups & downs that probably only benefit stockbrokers and the big players. The U.S. Reserve Bank chairman sneezes and the sharemarket plummets - as good excuse as any to make someone a few more zillion dollars.

    We don't need any more economic theories thank you.

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  2. Shaun King

    Designer

    Time proved the Mayans wrong. What about Gordon?

    What a stupid sub-heading that is. The following paragraphs don't even mention where the Mayans went wrong. The Mayans clearly stipulated that the "change" that was coming would only be noticed by those not engrossed in the mental distractions of economics, television and social media etc. But anyway.

    I agree with Stephen, the only people who benefit from this insane "growth" model, are those with the goods. Those without the goods just watch…

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  3. Michael Lardelli

    logged in via Facebook

    Actually, there is a unified theory of economic growth but you will have to read the biophysical economists to understanding it. I suggest you read "Energy and the Wealth of Nations - Understanding the Biophysical Economy" by Charles Hall and Kent Klitgaard.

    The truth is that economic growth is, in aggregate, over in western nations since they are unable to increase their energy use. Some nations are using an increasing proportion of the world's stagnant energy supply from oil, e.g. China, to…

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    1. Chris Harries

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Michael Lardelli

      Absolutely agree with Michael. We should be well past the time when the desirability of economic or non growth is the burning issue. There are now so many astute papers written on how the increasing cost of supplying energy is stifling economic growth, beyond which it can not recover.

      Whilst Gordon may have predicted stagnation by the end of the century, the evidence before our eyes is that the global economy is now faltering and close to stagnation. We may well see the end of growth this decade.

      What should occupy our minds is not whether this reality is or is not viable or desirable, but how our basic prosperity and quality of life can be maintained under an inevitable and permanent non growth scenario. Some interesting reports have been written on this subject, including the highly profiled "Prosperity without Growth" paper, but it is truly fascinating that nobody really knows for sure how our civilisation can proceed from this point on.

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    2. William Ferguson

      Software Developer

      In reply to Michael Lardelli

      Um, Western nations don't need extra energy to grow. Energy use on the west has been falling for the last 4 years as gains in efficiency (driven by new tech) outstrips new business use.

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  4. John Newton

    Author Journalist

    'However, the world consists of many countries that are not at the frontier. For these countries, positive growth will persist beyond 2100 until they have caught up with the US. '

    Professor Carmignani in what sense 'caught up with the USA'? In the pollution of their rivers and land? The number of guns? Or perhaps they need to catch up with China - who, in a desperate attempt to catch up with the USA has rendered its air toxic - apropos of the article in TC the other day I was speaking to a Chinese…

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    1. Doug Hutcheson

      Poet

      In reply to John Newton

      Growth is the only way debt can be repaid. Loans are expected to be repaid with future discounted dollars, not with today's full-value dollars. When growth stops, gazillions of dollars of debt will simply evaporate, as will the banks holding the debt. Oh dear, how sad. I'm keeping my $2.50 in savings under my mattress, not in no dirty, rotten bank! Even if they ask nicely, they won't get my pocket money ...

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    2. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Doug Hutcheson

      In our current system it is absolutely impossible to pay off all debt. In fact the system will collapse iff all debt is extinguished.

      Essentially we are paying the interest on former debt with the money generated via new debt.

      The total interest payments grow ever lareger as we try to generate new debt to generate new money to pay off former debt.

      It is a zero sum game, a dog chasing its tail. Sooner or later the total interest payments will be so enormous that there is simply not enough…

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  5. Peter Ormonde

    Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

    Farmer

    Oh dear ... sounds like a scene from Monty Python ... all these grey faced grey suited, grey haired old fogeys sitting somewhere suitably grey discussing - what was it again - oh yes - resilient dynamism. Item 13 on the agenda.

    All a mystery this magic pudding business isn't it? How growth - how innovation and trade get added into this soup of social, legal and political conditions and it comes out just yummy. If you're lucky.

    We guess at it. We try and copy the preconditions - what we…

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  6. James Jenkin

    EFL Teacher Trainer

    The Gordon paper is titled 'Is U.S. Economic Growth Over?'. - not 'Is Worldwide Economic Growth Over?' It looks at US, not global, data. It examines slowing growth in the US only, with local factors such as consumer and government debt.

    It's therefore risky making generalisations about the whole world.

    Shaun mentions 'the only people who benefit from this insane "growth" model, are those with the goods. Those without the goods just watch…'. It seems more complex than that - the countries with the highest growth rates include Mongolia, Ghana and Solomon Islands. Wealthy countries are way down the list.

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  7. john tons

    post graduate student

    Reading this piece the term incestuous amplification comes to mind. It refers to the fact that when people only talk to those who largely share their own views all that happens is that their errors are reinforced. Thus I looked in vain for any reference to the Club of Rime Report of 1972 and the subsequent 2010 review of their predictions by Turner from the CSIRO. In 1972 the end of growth was predicted and Turner has demonstrated that every benchmark identified in 1972 was being reached.
    A…

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  8. Greg Edeson

    virtual labourer, postgrad

    It's an interesting thought, but the assumption that perpetual growth is desirable or beneficial needs to be looked at.

    There's a level above which increases in income do little to nothing for wellbeing, so I'm not sure that any 'unified theory of growth' is that desirable.

    There's plenty of scope to improve the living standards of people all around the world without perpetuating the economic system that the west is so enthusiastically exporting that entrenches inequality and is based on the ever gowing consumtpion of finite resources.

    I'm not sure our social, environmental (or even economic) systems can take the strain of another 100 years of the blind pursuit of growth.

    I do agree that there is a need to find ways to integrate innovation into studies of people - I think a big part of this is properly integrating people and power into innovation, rather than assuming that good innnovations will occur as needed and will be adopted according to their merits.

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  9. Stephen John Ralph

    carer

    Oh john - not jared diamond... his books should be listed under "Comedy of Errors".

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  10. Frank Wilson

    Brain Surgeon

    Fabrizio, you have this whole thing backwards, technology is a following indicator not a leading indicator of economic growth, what you need to look at is energy and work, which are conveniently measured in the same unit, the joule, it then takes absolutely no stretch to equate energy to money, and voilà everything becomes clear.
    You generate economic growth through work, and increase that through a number of levers, one lever is that when you work for say one hour,
    you generate say $25,
    this…

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    1. Greg Edeson

      virtual labourer, postgrad

      In reply to Frank Wilson

      "(there is very good evidence that the GFC was triggered by oil going above $100/barrel)"

      And here was I thinking it was all about greed.

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  11. John ED Barker

    Adjunct Professor at Murdoch University

    Economists seem to be "fashionably phenomenological"- ie always looking for a new chicken whose entrails might give them a more propitious sign.

    As Michael Lardelli says, we need to look at basic physics and biology to develop unified theories based on the real limitations of Nature.

    But further, Fabrizio seems to have sold Solow short: Solow, essentially, inferred long-term productivity (based on about 100 years of data) was about 2%- about have of which he ascribed to technological improvements…

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    1. John ED Barker

      Adjunct Professor at Murdoch University

      In reply to John ED Barker

      ....but there are also many subtle and unnoticed policies and changes that can alter the slope of the learning curve, and hence productivity and fundamental wealth.

      For instance, the trend in our universities towards "training", rather than "education", ie repeating what is known, rather than exploring what is not known. This kind of behaviour improves efficiency in the short term, but impedes it in the long term.

      And further impeding occurs with the media extolling the post-modern "virtue" of venting feelings in the guise of "opinion". This venting of uninformed and unconsidered opinions may be helpful to the "venter" in the short term, but in the longer term it masks solid information upon which reliable decisions can be made.

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  12. Ngoc Luan Ho Trieu

    logged in via Facebook

    If no big technical changes in this century, GDP growth rate will move along population growth rate and per capita GDP to zero given no exhaustion of key energy sources and minerals, and no environmental disasters. It is, scientifically and realistically, unlikely in my view. I would predict that the next wave of technological revolutions will come from green technologies for energy problems, nano-technologies and bio-technologies to deal with resource constraints, diseases emerging from the environmental deterioration or existing incurable diseases plus disease-causing micro-organisms which have developed resistance against current treatments. Prophecies! I hope no-one will be sorry for trusting me!

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  13. Kevin Bain

    Teacher

    Note to editor. It's an interesting article and I'll look at the links. But tone down the puffery.

    Today's email from The Conversation ("academic rigour, journalistic flair") announced it as being about "whether growth as we know it can continue, Best epitomising that struggle this week is Apple, which suffered a sharp share price slump..." Huh? The Apple article is not about economic growth, just as this article is not about Mayan prophecies.

    You don't need to attract our attention by referencing irrelevancies, or manufacture false connections between articles which have nothing to do with one another: we get enough deception already from the MSM. More journalistic "flair" and less journalistic "flare" please.

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    1. Colin MacGillivray

      Retired architect

      In reply to Kevin Bain

      Yes Editor, please when the sub editor writes the headline, pretend it is the formal description of a brief academic paper.
      This site is for grown ups, as we all know.
      Kevin, I'm sure like me you look at the background of the author of an article to see the likely "spin". The Apple article was by a software guy, I think, not an financial whiz.

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  14. Stephen John Ralph

    carer

    Charles Dickens once said (and I paraphrase) -
    "Income = $100.
    Expenditure = $99.99 = happiness
    Expenditure = $100.01 = unhappiness.

    now that's economics.........

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  15. Cameron Wheatley

    Student

    Whenever I see the economic growth figure on the news I can't help thinking of cancer...the analogy is pretty good...it mindlessly and incessantly grows without any regard for the body that sustains it, until it kills the very thing that allowed it to live in the first place. I am a young person, I am aware that 'economics' has given me comfort and possessions, but i don't know if it is going to be able to give me a future.

    We sorely need economic theories that expose the idea of continual economic growth as ridiculous (although we also need to somehow come to terms with controlling our population without repressing people).

    Bring on zero growth and a a steady state economy.

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  16. Lars Lohmann

    Consultant at Carbon Wise

    Consumer driven growth which all western countries seem to expose as the solution to getting out of the GFC and all our economic woes, has its days numbered.

    Jorgen Randers one of original authors of The Limits To Growth for the Club of Rome has recently published his latest book 2052 which looks at the next 40 years - it now being 40 years since the original book was published in 1972.

    While one person has commented that The Limits of Growth should be called a comedy of errors, there is…

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    1. James Jenkin

      EFL Teacher Trainer

      In reply to Lars Lohmann

      Hi Lars

      Which economic predictions from The Limts To Growth have panned out as estimated? (I understand the population projections were pretty accurate.)

      Cheers

      James

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  17. Robert Dalitz

    Adjunct Fellow, Office of UWS Innovation at University of Western Sydney

    Sort of interesting, with absolutely no mention of the large literature on innovation studies. Nor the associated studies of economic development (except one version of the number of industrial revolutions), and the work on long waves. Look at Freeman and Louca (As Time Goes By) and the work of Carlotta Perez.
    The simple facts on this are that the Industrial Revolution happened once and completely changed the game for development (It happened in Britain and was unprecedented). Since then we have…

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  18. Michael Toole, AM

    Professor of International Health at Burnet Institute

    Re first comment by Stephen John Ralph, in fact the African continent is experiencing economic growth at a much higher rate than any other continent, albeit from a low baseline. Growth in 2012 was around 5% compared with 3% globally. Excluding South Africa, the continent's growth rate was 6%. In 2011, Ghana's growth rate was 14%, the third highest in the world. Of Africa’s 48 countries, 22 states with a combined population of 400 million people have officially achieved middle-income status. The next challenge for Africa is to distribute its new wealth equitably.

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  19. Clem Campbell

    Sustainability practioner

    David Suzuki very succinctly described this issue " We have failed to address the fundamental truth that endless growth is impossible in a finite world"

    The GDP - economic growth concept will come to an end whether economists can accept this 'fundamental truth' or not.
    Economists need to open their eyes and ears to witness the impact of endless economic growth on our limited natural resources

    Cheers!

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    1. James Jenkin

      EFL Teacher Trainer

      In reply to Clem Campbell

      Hi Clem

      How do you mean a 'finite' world?

      Things grow - and humans work out how to get more from things. Once we used uranium to colour glass. We didn't know how to breed plants. We used coal for jewellery.

      I'm not denying resources can be scarce. But it's not a case of 'there's stuff, we use it up, that's it'.

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    2. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to James Jenkin

      James, you really need to study biology and ecology if you don't get it that we live in a finite world.

      "Things grow"

      But fossil fuel energy does not grow at any where near the same rate that we are consuming it at!

      And everything we grow, or more precisely the scale on which we grow them, at present is dependant on fossil fuels.

      E.G. To fuel tha massive plows and harvestors, to fuel b-double trucks that get the grains to the processing plants and then the processed foods from the processing plants to the super markets. Nitrogen fertlisers come from natural gas.......

      With out fossil fuels we would not be capable of growing any where near as much food as we currently do. Without them, likely in the near future, a very great many of the current 7 billion humans on earth would starve to death. Including many in the west.

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    3. Doug Hutcheson

      Poet

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      "With out fossil fuels we would not be capable of growing any where near as much food as we currently do. Without them, likely in the near future, a very great many of the current 7 billion humans on earth would starve to death. Including many in the west".

      Exactly. I continued to be baffled by the ignorance of people who cannot see such obvious issues in our future. Peak Oil combined with probable global warming will place impossible strains on our agricultural economy and the negative impacts…

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    4. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Doug Hutcheson

      I'm not sure how easy it is Doug - this being the Anthropocene period and all - to separate out the physical consequences of global warming with our likely responses. And given the history of these things I'd be buying sharies in razor wire makers and the folks that make Bushmaster "assault rifles" myself.

      Unless of course we try a more sensible and co-operative approach.

      Sadly Greg has opted for the former - especially when it comes to refugees - less so when it comes to Kiwis who are apparently…

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    5. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Folks ignore Peter's misrepresentation of my views.

      I want to see our open borders with New Zealand closed as much as I want to see uninvited asylum seekers and people smugglers stared down.

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    6. Dianna Arthur

      Dianna Arthur is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Environmentalist

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      " Is environmentalism compatible with selfishness?'

      Nah, selfishness is what created this mess.

      Australia is not a separate planet, it is a part of Earth and it can afford to take on refugees - that is not a part of increasing the world's population, merely spreading it around. In fact if we take in more people, those same people will be able to access the education and health services that aid in limiting population growth.

      At the same time we can afford to aid overpopulated countries by providing the infrastructure for the same health and educational foundation we have here.

      Put simply, there is no single answer. As we need a diverse range of renewable energy sources, we need to have a range of actions to help our people - by which I mean people of Earth.

      Closing borders is part of the same mindset of those who fear losing power.

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    7. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      Diana I sypathise with you on this to some degree but there are some facts that I believe to be so and that I would like you to comment on.

      1) Humans are inherently selfish with some capacity to act alturistically in some circumstances, particularly when there is something to be gained long term, either financially or socially. Selfishness is a behavioural pattern hard wired into our neurocircuitry, through evolution and natural selection, that cannot be changed. We can suppress it to some degree…

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    8. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      Diana a peaceful Afghanistan is a fallacy that has been pushed by various western powers for decades.

      I believe most Afghans have tribal allegiances and have little or no capacity to form a nation.

      IF you believe it is possible then why don't YOU volunteer to stay in Afghanistan and help them form a nation when US troops abandon it.

      Afghanistan is certainly not a cause that I would be prepared to lay down my life for.

      Afghanistan has been a dysfunctional state for a very long time and will remain one for the forseeable future.

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    9. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      The fact is that you have to have some means of regulating the flow of 7 billion souls across this planet.

      IF we don't have borders then potentially a signficant proportion of 1 billion chinese could move to Ausralia or britian or else where when their economy goes bust.

      If you think that this sort of movement of people from one region to another is sustainable Diana then I suggest you need to fundamentally need to re-think your views. Because the vast majority of Australians would simply not agree with you.

      Countries, borders and visa are the best way we can regulate the flow of millions of people. IF you can think of a better means of discouraging the flow of hundreds of millions of people in a short time span then I would like to hear it Diana!

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    10. Dianna Arthur

      Dianna Arthur is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Environmentalist

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      I cannot reply to such value laden "facts".

      Not all humans are inherently selfish.

      We have the technology and skills to live compatibly with Australia's climate and soils.

      We can, along with other first world nations aid others. There is no magic bullet, but closing our borders could well be the most dangerous action we take. There is no safe way to close our coast line.

      I agree with setting an example, no point preaching unless we practice. That includes permitting refugees as well as…

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    11. Dhugal Fletcher

      Critical Thinker

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      Humans are naturally empathic and are taught the idea of 'us' and 'them' in a group sense later. Young kids dont see any difference between any humans until they're taught to. You only have to look at Australian aboriginal culture to find examples of how extremely social and inclusive they were to their tribe. Nobody starves.

      Your notion of selfishness is the lie fed to the western world by capitalists trying to justify their own shortcomings.

      http://www.thersa.org/events/rsaanimate/animate

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    12. Dhugal Fletcher

      Critical Thinker

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      More imaginative 'arguments'.

      So now we should be afraid of the population of China moving to Australia? China is FAR more fertile than Australia, it makes no sense at all.

      This is starting to sound more like the domino effect argument by each posting. It sounds like you want to 'protect' Australia from the yellow hordes. Racist bunkum.

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    13. Dianna Arthur

      Dianna Arthur is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Environmentalist

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      Furthermore, instead of telling ME to rethink MY views, how about you expand upon your own?

      You have finally discovered what many have already been aware of for a long time; that the financial sector is/was founded on nothing. Well done.

      Try this:

      " 1. From human evolution.

      Leaky (Richard) points out that the circumstances in which humans evolved over millions of years, especially having to survive in small tribal bands on the dangerous grasslands of Africa, required strong bonding and…

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    14. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      Diana, technology cannot override fundamental ecological limits.

      Take water. Yes we can increase the supply of fresh water, but at the cost of a signficant increase in energy consumption, i.e. desalination.

      And desalinated water is extremely expensive. If Australians were to become reliant on delsalinated water then the inequities in our society would be greatly exacerbated. There would be water rich and water poor with far worst social consequences than wage rich and wage poor.

      Technology…

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    15. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      Fossil fuels are close to or have already peaked and set to decline over the coming decades.

      Our current technology is dependant on the cheap energy we get from fossil fuels.

      As fossil fuels increased in price as they are depleted, we will not be able to maintain our food production and distribution systems let alone increase desalinated water supplies to cater an increased Australian population.

      I suggest you read Tim Flannery's "The Future Eaters" to gain some understanding of Australia's situation with population.

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    16. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dhugal Fletcher

      Many school children may not recognize ethnic differences but often nor do they have much innate empathy until they are punished for allowing their base instincts to control their behaviour.

      I am of course referring to school bullying.

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    17. Dhugal Fletcher

      Critical Thinker

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      Strawman arguments with an assumption that the majority support you is the preserve of the religious and the US Republicans.

      I suggest you try your luck there.

      Alternatively you could attempt to support your opinion in any way.

      Despite being presented with actual evidence, you ignore it to continue to respond with baseless opinion. Not good enough.

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    18. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dhugal Fletcher

      I could have said the same thing about Britain or New Zealand Dhugal. I chose china because their population is 1 billion or so, they are at the peak of an economic bubble and any mass movement of people out of china will have enormous consequences for the destination countries.

      It does not matter what colour their skin is, mass movement of people in a short time period cause political and social instability in the destination countries and is not sustainable in the long term.

      You can hurl racist slurs at me all you want Dhougal but I deny you accusations and you wont succeed in shutting me up.

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    19. Dianna Arthur

      Dianna Arthur is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Environmentalist

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      My name is "Dianna" not Diana.

      I never claimed there is a perfect solution, however I do know that Australia cannot exist in isolation to the rest of the world - impossible both from basic physics and culturally.

      If I am on the same limb as Peter O, then I find myself in good company. People who are able to look at problems from all sides rather than just from a single ideological view are needed if the tree of human life is to continue.

      I see you have made no comment on the link I gave…

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    20. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dhugal Fletcher

      Ireland is more fertile than Australia too, but we are never the less getting a signficant movement of Irish immigrants to Australua due to their economic collapse.

      Fortunately there are a lot fewer irish than there are chinese.

      But never the less irish immigrants should be regulated in australia's population interests equally to chinese immigrants.

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    21. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      Fair enough Diana, I will be more specific.

      Humans are innately selfish outside the boundaries of familial and tribal ties.

      As this applies to xenophobia around bringing in large number of immigrants too quickly.

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    22. Dhugal Fletcher

      Critical Thinker

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      Again, your starting point is not connected to your finishing point.

      How does this apply to Australia again?

      Sure, mass migrations change history. When China was starving many times in history there were huge amounts of people who left. Same for any country. Lots of people left Europe to colonise the Americas. Yup, gotcha.

      So now you're telling me that it will make sense for our near neighbours to migrate to Australia suddenly and en masse?

      Still not making any sense there. The logistics and cost involve are phenomenal and dont match up to other options: like staying on land.

      How on earth will our immigration policy have the slightest effect on such an event?

      These are meanderings of someone who is desperately trying to validate a baseless opinion.

      Facts and evidence please.

      I'm not trying to shut you up, I'm trying to make the slightest sense from your meanderings.

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    23. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      Dianna...........Diana...........what ever.

      Let's not waste band width by splitting hairs about typos in names.

      I regard your views about open borders as ideological and unrealistic Dianna.

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    24. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dhugal Fletcher

      Sorry Dhougal but, based on Gillard's backflip on offshore processing, I would say it is entirely reasonable to conclude that by far the majority of Australians are very uncomfortable with an open borders approach to uninvited asylum seekers

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    25. Dhugal Fletcher

      Critical Thinker

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      So you're saying selfish bullies are the model citizens our society should be based on?

      I think we should focus on the empathetic, cooperative people who form the actual majority.

      You only have to travel outside western countries and away from tourist traps to discover that people all over the world today are 95% friendly, helpful, empathetic and delightful to strangers. I have lost count of the number of amazing stories of help and hospitality from around the world - it is the standard, not the exception. The exception is bullies and despots.

      We took a wrong turn giving too much power to bullies in the finance and political realm. Time to take it back and reform the cultural basis again.

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    26. John Holmes

      Agronomist - semi retired consultant

      In reply to Dhugal Fletcher

      Reply to Dhugal

      ..."You know the north west of Australia is very fertile and could support a lot more people, but is underdeveloped now."...

      We need not to confuse the prolific end of wet season growth of spear grass (annual sorghum's) that wave over our heads and sometimes infests our armpits with prickly seeds, with innate fertility.

      If it was that fertile, we would have had a population of people from SE Asia settled there long ago. There were enough visitors - Trepang traders, the…

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    27. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dhugal Fletcher

      Dhougal you sound EXACTLY like the property developers!

      "Population growth is inevitable so we may as well accept it and get on with life"

      I believe they have largely become resigned to the fact that the vast majority of Australians do not accept their preferred future population size/customer base.

      I believe the gillard government is making a reasonable attempt at dealing with uninvited asylim seekers, i.e. loading the Sri Lanken ones on planes and sending them back to Sri Lanka.

      I am sure they could deal with greater numbers quite easily if Australian voters / people smugglers put enough pressure on them. E.G. Perhaps charter ocean liners to send them back to the source countries en masse.

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    28. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      We have it a lot easier than most countries in having no land borders hence we will be better able to resist mass migration of people in the coming decades.

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    29. Dhugal Fletcher

      Critical Thinker

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      What do you mean by 'open borders' in your new strawman hypothesis?

      If you're seriously going to use that as an example, I'm profoundly disappointed.

      Refugees were unashamedly used by Howard to manufacture consent to his terrible world view. Borrowed, like all of his playbook, from the US republicans to divide and conquer by giving simple answers to complex questions. the fact Labor are too pathetic to reverse it tells you why they cant form a majority government.

      But you like manufactured…

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    30. Dhugal Fletcher

      Critical Thinker

      In reply to John Holmes

      Totally agree, my point was to draw attention to potential ...

      and being a Darwin boy, I'm familiar with some of the epic fails that did go on up that way... I went to school on the site of the old Vestey's meatworks. :)

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    31. John Holmes

      Agronomist - semi retired consultant

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      Question - where do long term feuds fit in? The Noongar in SW WA have some well developed ones.

      Hunter gatherers are owned by their area, agrarian societies own their areas. Big discussion re Old Britain and the effects of the introduction of agriculture in SBS doco's. Also explains some of the problems between Australian Aboriginal thought and agrarian thought.

      The well established trading routes of Aboriginal Australia which probably enabled more interaction than would be expected…

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    32. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dhugal Fletcher

      Further more it is my view, and no doubt that of a large proportion of other Australians, that the current small number of uninvited asylum seekers are the vanguard of much larger mass movements of people to Australia in coming decades.

      If we don't stare down people smugglers and illegal immigrants now then we will be condemning future generations of Australians (chinese, indian and british australians alike) to a miserable existence where even more power is handed to the economic ellites through massively increased demand for scarce water and jobs etc.

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    33. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dhugal Fletcher

      Stop twisting my words Dhougal.

      I am merely pointing out that school bullying shows us that empathy is not hard wired into brains at birth, that is something that is developed through reward and punishment mechanisms and that our collective empathy (outside familial links) can easily give way to self preservation in some circumstances.

      That is what all the scientific studies tell us about how we develop empathy from childhood.

      When setting immigration and population policy it would be wise…

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    34. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dhugal Fletcher

      Not strawman Dhougal. The goal of abolishing countries and borders is a stated aim of your refugee lobby. Dianna has stated this herself in one of her posts just before.

      What you want Dhougal is for anyone who arrives by boat to be immediately allowed into the community and not held in detention.

      To all intents and purposes that is 'open borders' and we wont have it I am afraid!

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  20. Gavin Moodie

    Principal Policy Adviser

    I agree with James Jenkin: this article misrepresents Gordon.

    This statement flashed red lights for me: 'This argument draws on the observation that economic growth was effectively close to zero throughout human history until around 1750.'

    Gordon reports the per-capita real gdp for 'the leading nation' from 1300. First, there was a lot of 'human history' before 1300. Second, Gordon bases his 1300-1900 figures on England and the UK, but England and the UK was not the 'leading nation' during…

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    1. Michael Toole, AM

      Professor of International Health at Burnet Institute

      In reply to Gavin Moodie

      Indeed, hard to imagine that Egypt experienced zero growth in the 4,000 years before Christ. Unless those pyramids really were built by aliens.

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    2. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Michael Toole, AM

      And what a sensless waste of taxpayers' dinarii they were those pyramids Michael - absolutely useless for anything at all other than just showing off ... make pink batts look fiscally responsible.

      Funny the things one can be remembered for isn't it - let alone making an albeit scrappy living from these useless things eventually via boatloads of snapping tourists. All out of gross public waste and mismanagement apparently. Shocking. It'd be like running archeological cruises around Lake Burley Griffin.

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    3. John Holmes

      Agronomist - semi retired consultant

      In reply to Gavin Moodie

      Where does the 'Middle Kingdom' fit in and the pre European conquest history of South America? Or the Indian Sub continent as 100,000 horse sacrifices were not based one a small stagnate economy. I would suggest that some geographical / historical gaps are showing.

      Lets use all of the major available histories, and examine where they lead.

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    4. Seamus Gardiner

      Citizen

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      That's an interesting point. A bit ozymandias ( originally my iPad spelled this as 'oozy manias', how apt) perhaps?
      I was originally going to say'i wonder if all the slaves that built the pyramids thought that it was worth it' ,but then I remembered they probably weren't all slaves, a lot were tradies and engineers, and there was an industry of accommodation, eateries and prostitutes to support them.
      Perhaps the pyramids were an Egyptian financial crisis stimulus scheme?

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    5. Jeremy Bradley

      Farmer

      In reply to Jason Only

      Do you mean that Peter isn't humorous or that he isn't peculiar? No matter, I don't agree with either proposition.

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    6. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Seamus Gardiner

      Keynes was a great admirer of the pyramids and ancient Egypt in particular. Doubly blessed, he called because it had two sources of useful economic stimulus... pyramids and mining.

      Of course, in the curious language of economics, being "useful" means precisely the opposite... the great virtue of the Egyptian economic stimulus package was its its distance from anything remotely useful or practical.

      "Ancient Egypt was doubly fortunate, and doubtless owed to this its fabled wealth, in that it…

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    7. Jason Only

      Interested Bystander

      In reply to Jeremy Bradley

      So you have just stated that he is peculiar by your own words.

      And what Peter lacks in his self indulgent fluff you have more than made up for by your previous comment

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  21. David Collett

    IT Application Developer at Web Generation

    I'm actually thinking that coming technological advances will reduce GDP.

    Consider for example, when 3D Printing becomes advanced enough that people can produce their widgets and gadgets in their own home or community, there will no longer be a need for as many factories and transport as there are today.

    Additionally, if/when quantum computing and it's vast computational power is applied to help manage inefficient systems at the macro economic level - such as production and distribution, the…

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  22. Stephen John Ralph

    carer

    Michael.....

    i know we rely on wikkipeia for much of our information, and I have now become a world expert on EVERYTHING,
    BUT that site says the following about Ghana....Ghana is a Middle Income Economy and is ranked as a Lower–Middle Income Economy by the World Bank.[53][54][55] 27% of Ghana's population are living on less than $1.25 per day,[53][56] and there is a rate of 25% youth unemployment.[57]

    I know statistics can represent anything and everything on which to base a belief. I wonder if Africans ARE getting a good deal out of economic development, or is it just the multi-nationals and corrupt governments.

    And I find it VERY hard to believe the statistic about middle income earners..........I mean the middle income wage in Oz is about $60K....do 400 million in Africa achieve this wage?

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    1. Michael Toole, AM

      Professor of International Health at Burnet Institute

      In reply to Stephen John Ralph

      Sorry, Stephen I don't cite wikipedia data. Those data were from the World Bank, which defines a middle income country as a per capita income of greater than $1000, indeed a lot less than our middle class incomes. As I said, equitable distribution of wealth is a challenge in Africa, as it is in Australia where the richest woman in the world wants to pay African migrant workers $2 a day to work in her mines.

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    2. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Stephen John Ralph

      To be honest Stephen I'd be taking any of these stats on Third World economic growth with enough salt to set one's arteries on a course of fossilisation.

      How much time and effort do you reckon that state or whoever else collects data can actually muster? Can't even do a census, let alone getting their finger on the pulse of something like an economy. I can just picture the Mongolian Bureau of Stats' surveyors out on a yurt check counting yaks.

      What actually happens is that that there'll…

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  23. Stephen John Ralph

    carer

    Thanks Michael.....

    far be it for me to criticise the WORLD bank.......but when they say a middle-income country is those with a per-capita income over $1000. Isn't this the height of absurdity. Or does it want the West to feel good when they can say 22 countries in Africa are now predominantly middle-class.

    And if the $1000 level is true, what does that make a country like Amerca or Australia etc........we must be as country of zillionaires.......suddenly I feel as rich as Gina. I'm feeling giddy.

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    1. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      Human well-being? In economics? What's that got to do with anything?

      Real economics is about bad news, about the cold hard reality of the cash and who deserves it. A permanent cold shower on our hopes and expectations.

      Humans - let alone well-being - are just a bloody nuisance in the whole business... buggering up the models, going all political, demanding this and that - even "sustainability" no less I see ...and these annoying humans are just not being the decent hard-working little cogs in these economic machines we've sort of put together ... a work in progress of course... never quite done. If only we could design a better class of human - something more reliable and less demanding... like the donkey. A beaut little economic unit your donkey.

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  24. John Kerr

    IT Education

    Giles, well said, of course we need to consider population growth. In 1800 how many people lived in abject poverty? Probably only those on the urban limits. In 1900 we had eradicated many of the life styles that were sustainable and made more people live in poverty. By 2000 there are few people on Earth who are either not caught up in the industrial living cycle or who are living on the limits in total and abject poverty. Not millions but billions of people now.

    Let's face it, humans are the…

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  25. Stephen John Ralph

    carer

    Peter there would be a wealth of old fossils around Canberra.................

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    1. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Stephen John Ralph

      Nah ... our fossils are far too young and spritely Stephen ... many of them give every appearance of being alive at a distance.

      The new parliament house (as I will always call it) was very much a step in the right direction - burying the whole business will speed up our progress as a people towards petrification.

      Now we just need a heck of a lot of sand.

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  26. lavinia kay moore

    child and family counsellor

    Thanks for the article and the incentive to read the Gordon article which I enjoyed reading.
    Why is it "worrying" simple?
    I have never understood the obsession with growth economics. I have an image of the balloon being blown up bigger and bigger until....
    Why do we need growth? do we?
    I dont believe that we do. What we need is equitable sharing of resources. Some say that is naive. But i have always believed in all receiving according to their needs and giving according to their ability. That…

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  27. duncan mills

    Social Ecologist

    I am inclined to believe that all other things remaining constant, growth in human productivity of utility (to human well being) can be infinite.

    The debate however needs clarification on what scope is attributed to growth, too often it implies growth in consumption of material and energy resources. Certainly we know now this has to become zero in the long term.

    However because we have failed to live within the limits of our physical environment humanity is probably condemned to declines in…

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    1. duncan mills

      Social Ecologist

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      Social recalcitrants.
      Those who choose to maxmise short term gains without regard to the long term consequences to other human beings. ie) other communities, future generations.

      Those who refuse to enlighten themselves as to the consequences of their actions.

      Those who cling to dysfunctional learning systems that fail to integrate specialist knowledge into the whole. For instance Silo thinking!

      Those whos ego's are so fragile that they are unable to admit mistake.

      and thats just a start to the exploration of the recalcitrants!!

      It needs adding that in a democracy good old fashioned ignorance is probably and equal hazard; from the many who fail to thrive in the education system.
      That however is easier to address and yes the Gonski reforms are a step in the right direction, but perhaps not quick enough.

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  28. bill parker

    editor

    I really cannot reconcile myself with that word "fear". Why would I be afraid of not being able to by the an iPhone version 6 or a humongous flat screen TV that actually has a customizable crap filter as determined by myself? I am not.

    This story has been reviewed a long time back when those of us ( this one a microbiologist) saw the inevitable in about 1969 - 70. At that time H V Hodson wrote a book called "The Diseconomics of Growth", showing in short that economic growth is far short of being identical with increased general welfare. Hodson was published in 1972. Available at Athelsone UK

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  29. Ania Karzek

    logged in via Facebook

    I can think of plenty of revolutionary options: let's not count growth in terms of money; let's change our definition of progress; let's de-couple growth from energy; let's make the next industrial revolution green...seems to me these would turn the existing systems on their head and therefore be quite revolutionary.

    I seem to recall in the haze of my school years that there were a whole lot of resitors around the the time of the Industrial Revolution who thought all this fandangled machinery…

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    1. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Ania Karzek

      I'm quite happy here in the bottom of the garden. At least you get to hang out with fairies rather than goblins...

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  30. Chris Harries

    logged in via Facebook

    We are actually between a rock and a hard place, and nobody knows an escape route that does not involve considerable collateral damage.

    As one or two have said, perpetual growth is impossible in a finite system. Whether now or some time later we have to accommodate its end. Nice cosy thought that we can just slip into a new equitable space where we share resources and don't feel the need to be competitive about them.

    But it ain't so easy. Having reached some critical limits to growth, our…

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    1. Arthur James Egleton Robey

      Industrial Electrician

      In reply to Chris Harries

      The solution is a simple as it is hard. We have to leave the finite world.
      Gerard K O'Neil was right on the money when he said

      "It is important to realize the enormous power of the space-colonization technique. If we begin to use it soon enough, and if we employ it wisely, at least five of the most serious problems now facing the world can be solved without recourse to repression: bringing every human being up to a living standard now enjoyed only by the most fortunate; protecting the biosphere from damage caused by transportation and industrial pollution; finding high quality living space for a world population that is doubling every 35 years; finding clean, practical energy sources; preventing overload of Earth's heat balance.
      —Gerard K. O'Neill, "The Colonization of Space"[26]"

      You don't like it? Then I suggest that you try the alternative.

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    2. Chris Harries

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Arthur James Egleton Robey

      The best we've done so far – following billions of expenditure and using some of the best brains available – is a little tinpot space station orbiting just beyond our thin stratosphere with half a dozen people cramped inside. From that point you are suggesting that human civilisation, tens of millions of us, can simply pop into space and colonise it – and all this before climate change or financial breakdown bang us on the head?

      It's not a matter of liking the idea, it's a simple matter of basic physics. But I can't blame anyone for romantically dreaming of such a seemingly joyous and risk free escape.

      I enjoy science fiction too, with thanks Arthur.

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    3. Arthur James Egleton Robey

      Industrial Electrician

      In reply to Chris Harries

      That was yesterdays technology.
      What advice would you have given to the early experimenters of flight who used hot air balloons?
      My guess is that you would have said something along the lines of

      "The best we've done so far – following billions of expenditure and using some of the best brains available – is a little tinpot space station orbiting just beyond our thin stratosphere with half a dozen people cramped inside"

      Now we have colossal carbon nanotubes. And further research is being done…

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    4. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Arthur James Egleton Robey

      Seeking to solve sustainability problems on planet earth by sending millions into space colonies or what ever is a very naive pipe dream.

      Even if it could be done in the 60s and 70s, those space populations would still be dependant on resources from earth for the foreseeable future.

      They would need to be sent, food, water and oxygen. Even now we are decades or perhaps centuries away from the technology necessary for TOTALLY self sufficient off earth colonies.

      So space colonies are no different to sending millions of people to live in antartica. They will still consume earth resoruces behind sustainable limits.

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    5. John Holmes

      Agronomist - semi retired consultant

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      I suppose there is a possibility of getting ourselves deeper in to the poo by floating human permanent habitation on/in the oceans. Fair bit of energy available in sunlight, wind, waves and in the temperature differences between surface and deep ocean temperatures. Also considerable nutrients in the deeper waters if brought to the surface and exposed to light.

      However, what has not been discussed much is the sigmoid curve that describes among other things population growth in biological systems…

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    6. John Holmes

      Agronomist - semi retired consultant

      In reply to John Holmes

      Opps typo - Please an edit function.

      Above Should be
      ..." At present, we seem to have a tacit agreement that we do not have such limits. ...."

      Remove "do not", my dyslexia yet again.

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    1. Dhugal Fletcher

      Critical Thinker

      In reply to Suzy Gneist

      An actuary friend of mine commented recently on these mainstream economic theories that ignore the real world...

      "It's like the man who is looking for his lost car keys under a streetlight....Not because that's where he lost them, but that's where he can see"

      We need to cast a new light out into the scary world of sustainability in every front of our lives. So this means that over-simplified, outdated and nonsensical theories need to make way for a new way of approaching the world. there…

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  31. William Ferguson

    Software Developer

    I'm not going to comment on whether growth is a good or bad thing, and I must admit that I haven't read Gordon's paper but I hope that it is not as short sighted as this article suggests.

    To blithely ignore the 3 major tech revolutions that are about to sideswipe our society over the next 3 decades seems simple minded.
    - Genetics - disruptive
    - Nanotech - extremely disruptive
    - AI - totally disruptive

    All three of these are growth drivers. And all three are being enabled by the IT revolution which will continue in the background.

    No growth?? Kurzweil estimates 2000 years worth (at year 200 rate) over the next 100 years. Doesn't sound stagnant to me.

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    1. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Michael Lardelli

      At least one flickering glimmer of hope Michael ... those studies looking at biological manufacturing processes ... how to make ceramics, cable and the like using the processes of shellfish, spiders and those other clever critters that can make useful stuff but do it at room temperature or below.

      Long way to go but could point us towards something a bit more long-lived. Maybe.

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    2. Craig Minns

      Self-employed

      In reply to William Ferguson

      AI is the real game-changer. What do we do with the people when the machines run everything without human intervention required? How do we define "growth" if there's no employment? How does an economy work at all if nobody has a capacity to earn money to buy the products of the AI machines?

      The Romans and arguably the US Confederacy and other exemplars became decadent because they had very cheap slave labour to free the rest of the populace from work. Their vision of the future became stultified…

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    3. Craig Minns

      Self-employed

      In reply to Michael Lardelli

      We are swimming in energy, the only problem is that it's a little more complex to use than fossil fuel. I can't see energy being a factor long-term, especially once automation becomes so ubiquitous that people are no longer travelling long distances twice a day to work. It's amazing how much we spend on going to work and feeding and clothing ourselves while there. I've got a minor injury which has seen me, for the first time in my life, receiving Worker's Compensation and sitting at home with no…

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  32. John Bloomfield

    Retired Engineer

    Why do so many modern economic theorists continue to ignore the real cost of the growth in concentration of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere?
    Surely, as the laws of physics dictate, this will prove to be the ultimate regulator of human activity.

    Short term "profitability" and comfort for the few is a poor swap for long term ecological genocide.

    We have already squandered mankind's quota of "cheap" carbon polluting fossil fuel energy, and still haven't bothered to seriously apply our intelligence to develop sustainable energy sources.

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  33. Arthur James Egleton Robey

    Industrial Electrician

    Some people have strong views on the Bible, but have never read it.
    Others have strong views on Darwin's Origin of the Species, but have never read it.
    Gordon might just as well have opened the Limits to Growth report by Meadows, Meadows and Randers. (Have you read it? No. Really. Cover to cover?)
    It is a basic feature of the exponential function to have a doubling time. This doubling time is an inescapable fact of mathematics. So how many doublings is enough? If China became 64 times as big as…

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  34. Chris Harries

    logged in via Facebook

    A number of contributors have mentioned the Egyptian pyramids so I would like to pose a sobering thought. Each week a significant number of jumbo jets take off from various parts of the world, each one carrying some 400 or so passengers, and many of those are on board for one purpose, to witness at first hand these marvellously huge artefacts that were put together with nothing but human ingenuity and sweat.

    Now, and this is the rub, I am told that the fossil fuelled energy consumed by each and…

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  35. Greg Boyles

    Lanscaper and former medical scientist

    In order to transistion to a steady state economy we will have to fundamentally reform our money system.

    Currently new money enters our 'advanced' economies through the creation of debt. Essentially private banks create new money from nothing when they type the amount of a loan into the borrowers account.

    It is assumed that the asset, when built or purchased, will retain the same value or increase in value in order to back the amount that was borrowed to obtain it or build it.

    That in turn…

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    1. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      Perhaps we need to go as far as ammending or replacing the federal reserve act.

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  36. Harvey Westbury

    Not being a dinosaur

    Funny how this article followed a very similar special report in The Economist!

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  37. Iain Wicking

    Director

    Forget the notion of a unified theory of growth - economics as a subject is deeply and profoundly flawed. Furstly, Economics ignores the interplay of societies social and political structures and secondly. Economists have created mass ignorance about the critical dependence we have on the need for a healthy environment (nature's capital). Economists make the assumption that man-made capital is a substitute for nature’s capital. It is assumed that as we deplete nature’s capital, man-made capital will…

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  38. Tom Jackson

    Pastoralist

    The damage that we have done to our future by running the world on 'economic' lines has happened because all economic 'laws' are based on the same narrow view of that world as our reductionist science uses. Economics tries to model the literally millions of interactions that take place every second between people, energy and the environment by making assumptions which commomalise (couldn't think of another word, perhaps group)some interactions and ignore the vast majority. Any activity which cannot…

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    1. John Holmes

      Agronomist - semi retired consultant

      In reply to Tom Jackson

      Good one Tom

      Bit like the soil erosion on wheat growing areas of North Africa where the hill slopes moved into the bottoms of the valleys during the period of Roman rule, or the correlation with the collapse of Central American civilizations with soil degradation.

      Was not GDP defined at a conference towards the end of WW2 , Yalta (?), as not to include the economic value of the homemaker and of child raising in the home. This tends to reduce the importance of the raising of children by mothers or in some groups by their Grandmothers. Hence less enthusiasm to support them even though supporting has big benefits. Eg every $5 spent on the old infant welfare nurse support system in WA was estimated at saving $25 in reduced costs in the justice/jail system.

      In theology we can suggest that these distortions are equivalent to or are a consequence of original sin and that needs to be carefully explored and exposed

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    2. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Tom Jackson

      Tom your comment is a little unfair to science.

      Economics is not based on science at all. I.E. Ecology and biology etc that tell us that our society is containg within global and local ecosystems that have finite capacities to supply us with resources and dissipate our wastes.

      Economics is closer to theology than it is to science as some one as already pointed out.

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  39. Theo Pertsinidis

    Theo Pertsinidis is a Friend of The Conversation.

    ALP voter

    Re: "Perhaps a little wind of optimism will come down from the Swiss Alps".

    Amish population is one of the fastest growing in the USA.

    The Amish orientation ex SwissGerman, is a motive for rejecting labor saving technologies that might make one less dependent on community. Modern innovations like electricity might spark a competition for status goods, or photographs might cultivate personal vanity.

    The rules of the church, must be observed by every member. These rules cover most aspects…

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    1. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Theo Pertsinidis

      Key point here is that the Amish population is the fastest growing in the USA.

      1 billion (or what ever) US Amish will degrade the environment just as thoroughly as a few hundred million over consuming non-Amish Americans.

      It may take a lot longer to get there and a lot more of them but regardless the destination is identical.

      There is a fundamental ecological and biological truth - growth of anything at any level is ultimately unustainable.

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  40. Jennifer Raper

    Mrs

    This is all very fascinating. I'll take theology - it makes as much sense as economics to me!

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  41. john tons

    post graduate student

    Some have suggested that technology is the solution. We squarely need to face the reality that the problem is humanity. I recall the various waves of technology that were greeted with delight because as labour saving devices they would make life so much easier. Yet the majority people today are working longer hours than ever before. How many people work 40 hours per week? How many women having been 'liberated' from the sink now find that they have two jobs - housework and a career? In the 1930ties…

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    1. Craig Minns

      Self-employed

      In reply to john tons

      John, you've expressed my own POV very well.

      I've tried to encourage discussion about this, to little avail. Perhaps my expression of those ideas was inadequate, or perhaps they're simply uncomfortable and so people don't engage with them. They're certainly at odds with the current feminist paradigm which has thrived because it suits those who control capital to monetise work that would otherwise be done as a personal good and by so-doing make it a "service"
      that can create profit for those controllers…

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  42. wilma western

    logged in via email @bigpond.com

    Well at least this very partial and distorted article triggered some interesting comment with good references. I 'm really annoyed by people with very little historical knowledge churning out grand theories on the basis of inaccurate or selective "historical" generalisations. It's also weird to read analyses that equate economic growth with consumption of mineral "resources" and fossil fuel -based technologies and restrict it to this scenario. Conflict-ridden nations are unlikely to experience economic growth , and bio-technology is mostly not a huge consumer of mineral resources - just two instances of other important factors.

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    1. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to wilma western

      G'day Ms W...

      "Conflict-ridden nations are unlikely to experience economic growth..."

      Not necessarily true sadly. Depends on where you do your conflicting.

      Been doing some reading of late - back to the sacred texts of Keynes - regarding the value of pyramids in managing an economy, creating demand but not actually making anything that interferes with anything remotely useful.

      I'd suspect that military spending - the military industrial complex - fits this model like a sock. Massive…

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    2. Craig Minns

      Self-employed

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Sounds dangerously close to "Goldstein's book" from 1984 - "The Theory and Practise of Oligarchical Collectivism".

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldstein%27s_Book
      "The Oceanian social-class pyramid is a trinity: the ruling Inner Party — presided by Big Brother, an iconic, demigod leader (possibly fictional) meant to be worshiped and obeyed; the administrative Outer Party, who execute the rule of Oceania; and the Proles, who do the work. The mass of the populace will not revolt against the Party…

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  43. wilma western

    logged in via email @bigpond.com

    Peter O you have so disappointed me. Perhaps in WA you didn't have government schools full of shabby portable classrooms and only a square of bitumen for whole of school gatherings. In Victoria we did ( and in some cases still do) . For well over 90% of school communities the BER produced very welcome and needed buildings and of course created plenty of jobs for tradies.Sure there were some who were really annoyed that the school's preferences were ignored - due to Victoria's Education Dept's " guidelines…

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    1. Craig Minns

      Self-employed

      In reply to wilma western

      My kids' school needs a library. What they got was an $800,000 tin shed for a "Volleyball Centre of Excellence" that most of the kids aren't allowed to enter. It disrupted the school for nearly 12 months in the building which was frequently at a standstill for weeks at a time and has provided no benefit at all except to those in the "elite volleyball program" (obviously an essential part of the education system).

      Pyramids indeed.

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    2. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to wilma western

      Oh No ms W! I didn't say I liked it. Or that pyramids are a bad thing at all - far from it... although they could do with a good dusting.

      The awful truth though is that - viewed from the pragmatic straightjacket of managerial economics - military spending makes an excellent Keynesian economic stimulus - provided you don't go using it at home.

      This is why I am no longer associated with the trade... and the further away one gets from economics as it is practised, the worse it looks.

      The…

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  44. Jason Walker

    Water Indust' /Student (sustainability) at Shoalhaven Water/Murdoch Uni

    I challenge the author's statement that 'Without economic growth it is hard to improve living standards, reduce poverty and promote social and human development'.
    Global GDP is at historically high levels, but poverty, malnutrition, literacy and numeracy levels, and a myriad other socio-economic/development indicators suggest that this growth is occurring mostly within a very narrow sector of our broader society. Also, one must consider that conventional ideas about what constitutes development and poverty frequently discount the cultural richness and social stability reflected in many traditional cultures, and small rural farming and fishing communities around the globe.
    As with so much of 'Western' ideology the answer to a problem is often dependant upon the preconceptions of the person asking the question.

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    1. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Jason Walker

      Jason I suggest you watch this documentary about how our money system has evolved since antiquity to the impossible economic situation we now find ourselves in.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqvKjsIxT_8

      Now there are some details in this doco that jave been questioned but essesntially it is entirely accurate.

      Before I watched this doco I might have said exactly the same thing as you have just said. But after watching it, what the author has said here makes perfect crystal clear sense to…

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    2. Dianna Arthur

      Dianna Arthur is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Environmentalist

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      Thanks for the link.

      Even though the doco did not explicitly state, it goes a long way to reveal why the push for small government/low tax by the big end of town. They have successfully created a mistrust of government which is, ironically, aided and abetted by most politicians of most political stripes.

      Keeping the public ignorant and indentured (from the time of serfs to the wage slaves of today) surely has to be the true oldest profession.

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    3. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      You are welcome Diana. Please spread it around to all your friends, family and colleagues. The more people that understand this the mopre hope we may have of breaking out of the downard cycle and the more immune voters will become to the economic crap that oozes from the mouths of our politicians.

      I don't know whether the various conspiracy theories about a banking ellite deliberatel set out to keep us economic serfs indentured through personal debt are true, but it is certainly the way the system has evolved through time and population growth.

      Perhaps this sort of pattern of affairs is an inevitable in any economic/social system when the population reaches a certain critical mass and it becomes essential in order to maintain political control and civil order.

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    4. Dianna Arthur

      Dianna Arthur is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Environmentalist

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      I like to joke about conspiracy theories. In the case of the banking industry and the finance sector in general, those in power do not need to conspire, not when they have a common goal that has been intrenched for centuries.

      People with power fear losing it. They see any move towards equitable societies as a direct threat to their status.

      They believe that all other people think the way they do; it is incomprehensible that it is possible to spread wealth in the form of food, shelter, education…

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    5. Jason Walker

      Water Indust' /Student (sustainability) at Shoalhaven Water/Murdoch Uni

      In reply to Jason Walker

      Greg, I watched the doco', thank you.
      While it was interesting and informative, and definitely should be required viewing by anyone who 'works' for a living, its lessons were largely familiar to me - I realised the flaws in our economic system long ago because I asked the very questions put forward in it.
      My references to 'conventional ideas about development and poverty', and the 'cultural richness and social stability reflected in many traditional cultures. . .' were quite deliberate and specific…

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    6. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      With human nature is as it is, perhaps the whole notion of an entirely equitable society is a fallacy.

      I believe that the only way we can have an at least close to equitable society is with a very small population relative to available resources.

      So that the would be ellites cannot gain economic advantage through high demand for scarce resources.

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    7. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Jason Walker

      "'win arguments"

      Trust me, there is plenty of that in here as well.

      A common means of winning immigration/multiculturalism related arguments is via the traditional racist slur. Even some of the credentialled accademics in here seem to engage in this, many times where it is not justified.

      I take particular exception to this sort of behaviour so I am afraid I have been involved in many arguments in here.

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    8. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Jason Walker

      There is actually a series of 3 of them

      Money as Debt

      Money as Debt - Promises Unleashed

      Money as Debt - Evolution Beyond Money

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    9. Giles Pickford

      Giles Pickford is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Retired, Wollongong

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      Dear Greg

      The racist slur is something that I have been thinking about for years.

      I have come to the conclusion that the only racists are people who accuse another person of racism. They are the true racists.

      I have an Ozzie flag hanging in my window. This led to me being accused of being a racist by a person who I think was a Pakistani.

      I replied that I was born in India of British stock. I became an Australia at the age of 9. My wife is Polish, my daughter in law is German, and my friends come from all the continents. I explained to this bloke that I have a lot of trouble deciding which cricketr team I am backing.

      The racists are the people who think race is very important. I don't think it is.

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    10. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Giles Pickford

      Even worse Giles - "race" is a rubbish notion ... quaintly Victorian, like phrenology. Dodgy science, dodgy assumptions and indefensible conclusions.

      I'm Irish... a mix of celtic, saxon, scandinavian, french, spanish, jewish and with any luck some moorish stock. That's just the stuff we know about. If we do enough digging we'll probably pick up some neanderthal all built on a solid slab of someone like a Kalahari bushman - as do we all.

      So what are we looking at when we are looking at "race…

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    11. Dianna Arthur

      Dianna Arthur is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Environmentalist

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Happy "Aren't we lucky, by happen-stance of birth, to be born in Australia and kudos to those who have managed to make this country their home" Day.

      Just becoz I agree with Greg on the machinations of the finance sector doesn't mean I concur with everything he says (or anyone else I may find common ground with).

      We all live in the same ecosystem, planet Earth, and the effort of cooperation (anathema to some) will require the forgetting of artificial borders if we are to effectively use our technology and inventiveness to manage this latest mess we got ourselves into.

      Cheers m'dears

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    12. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Giles Pickford

      Look Giles, I don't deny that there is a great deal of xeonophobia going on around the globe and among all ethnicities.

      It might be reasonable to describe some of my views as xenophobic to some degree, particularly my views towards americans (as a nation).

      It is my view that xenophobia and social cohesion are opposite sides of the same neurophysiological coin. You can't have one entirely without the other. And it is my view that xenophobia, as it is literally defined (fear or mistrust of strangers…

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    13. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      Shutting people out of Australia has got nothing to do with racism or even xenophobia as far as I am concerned.

      It is about wisely managing the number of mouths we have to feed and the avilable food and water resources in the long term.

      Australia cannot solve global poverty and injustice through immigration, and if we attempt it all that we will succeed in doing is condemning our granchildren etc to the same mysery and injustice.

      It is about pragmatism. Helping those in the third world that we have the capacity to help without threatening the future of our own society.

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    14. john tons

      post graduate student

      In reply to Jason Walker

      I have referred earlier to the Threshold hypothesis - growth in GDP does not equate with growth in quality of life. (see http://www.stoppopulationgrowthnow.com/gpi.html for detailed argument.) Essentially what seems to be happening is that there is a period where growth in gdp accompanies growth in the quality of life. However, this does not go on indefinitely - there comes a point where GDP continues to grow and quality of life begins to decline. What is of particular concern is that the work that Lawn and Clarke have done suggests that for those nations who get on the GDP growth bandwagon last will not be able to achieve the same quality of life for all their citizens as was the norm for the developed world - ie the threshold is being lowered largely because we have plundered most of the the earth's resources.
      Welcome to Distopia

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    15. Doug Hutcheson

      Poet

      In reply to john tons

      John, we cannot expect individual quality of life to increase, when we are spreading our wealth and resources ever more thinly across a burgeoning population. There is only so much "stuff" to go around.

      We are irreversibly consuming, or wrecking, much that contributes to quality of life: virgin wilderness, the food-basket and alien world of the oceans, cheap and abundant energy, potable water, clement weather, fertile soils, the Arctic, stable sea levels, international peace, to name just a few.

      <pedantry>It's dystopia, not distopia</pedantry> "8-) We are certainly headed there, however it is spelt.

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  45. Theo Pertsinidis

    Theo Pertsinidis is a Friend of The Conversation.

    ALP voter

    Saw this at ted.com which has interesting responses. A link to the story is included.

    ---

    What can governments do to end poverty in their countries? Is a solution possible under capitalism?

    http://www.ted.com/conversations/15655/what_can_governments_do_to_end.html

    ---

    The comment by Casey Christofaris caught my attention.

    "The only way I have been able to figure out how to end poverty in our current system is through capitalism. I am about to launch 3 business almost simultaneously…

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  46. Doug Hutcheson

    Poet

    'the second industrial revolution consisted of inventions that, in the words of Gordon, “could happen only once”'

    The first and second industrial revolutions occurred when more efficient and powerful techniques were found, to drive machinery. Perhaps someone will invent warp drive, or equivalent, but I am not holding my breath. I think, after all, economics is subject to entropy, just like the rest of the universe.

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  47. Barney Foran

    Adjunct Research Fellow, Institute for Land, Water and Society at Charles Sturt University

    A thoughtful article on a great original paper by Robert Gordon. When science analyses the Solow growth theory and all its close relations, we find that economists try too hard with innovation and multi-factor-productivity. Robert Ayers, the father of industrial ecology, unpicked a century long GDP time series for the US and found that the Solow technical change residual was very simply ENERGY (or more accurately exergy and then work). David Stern at the ANU's Crawford School finds that energy and GDP are so intertwined as to be almost inseparable. Stalling growth is because transformation efficiencies (raw coal to electricity for example) have hardly changed over the past half century. So China and India are growing because they transform energy into goods and services we want to buy. And global climate change.....well its either we use much less energy or rapidly decarbonise, both of which we embrace at a snail's pace.

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  48. Ngoc Luan Ho Trieu

    logged in via Facebook

    The newly coined term "resilient dynamism" at WEF implies stagnancy being overcome by new ways of doing things in the economy one after another. New technologies are part of those new ways. The results of such process are economic ebbs and flows, downs and ups or in short business cycles. Measuring technology influence on the economy is difficult because of: (i) data quality as mentioned in this article; and (ii) model specification. Shortcomings in either one or both of these factors would give…

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  49. Yoron Hamber

    Thinking

    Think, and hope, that we are going from that outdated 'economic growth' model. It's a 'logic', but a logic based on the wrong premises. Those that loves it seems just those people needing class difference's inside as well as outside nations to exist. Because that's the way it works, you can't make money without someone, or something, paying for your wealth accumulation. It's weird how people can fool themselves into believing that one small Earth is inexhaustible?

    But you have to believe it, don't you :) Or else admit that you're living a lie.

    As far as I'm concerned that's the main reason why global warming doesn't get the attention it needs. Outdated power structures and money trying to force us into believing it a lie. Just as they want you to think that we can take and take, earth giving infinitely. That's bullshit.

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  50. Greg Boyles

    Lanscaper and former medical scientist

    The reason for my meanderings, as Dhougal puts it, across the subjects of over population, human behavioural biology and neurophysiology, xenophobia and political stability etc is because I see all these things as being linked to produce the type of society we live in.

    The level of xeonophobia and tolerance in a society is related to the population size, average consumption levels and avilable resources (which encompasses food, water, energy and economic resources like jobs). The higher the population…

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    1. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      It is also worthy to note the following.

      An over populated region or country is not necessarily a densely populated country or region.

      A densely populated region or country is not necessarily an over populated country or region.

      It all comes back to the ecology of the region or country and the available resource.

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  51. Michel Syna Rahme

    logged in via email @hotmail.com

    In no way do I profess to be an expert, I am only curious, so if I may put forward these questions which may be totally off the mark and simplistic.

    As a pacifist I cannot hide from the realities of war and some of the positive aspects that post war sometimes delivers. What benefits, putting aside the atrocities, did the Iraq war have on the U.S economy? 

    Also,  what does war and the incorporation of the third world into the 1st world system do for growth in 1st world countries who hold what…

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    1. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Michel Syna Rahme

      You were right to challenge the doctrine of your economics professor.

      That is what intelligent people do and what science is all about - questioning the status quo and the correctness of those who perpetuate it.

      It beggars belief that there are still supposedly educated university economic professors that still believe you can have perpetual economic growth on a finite planet with finite resources.

      Any scientist will tell you this, but much of economics is thus far a long way from rational…

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    2. Michel Syna Rahme

      logged in via email @hotmail.com

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      Thanks for your thoughts Greg. I agree. "So far no one has come up with an alternative energy source which has an equivalent of better EROEI and is economicall viable on a large scale" I am optimistic that we will, what changes to society and population security in the meantime is the next big question. Cheers

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    3. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Michel Syna Rahme

      I actually hope that we don't succeed in coming up with a new viable energy sources or, if scientists do come up with one, then they withold the technology.

      If we re 'bailed out' with a new energy source then it will once again provide an excuse not to deal directly with human over population, the stakes will grower yet larger as over population worsens resulting in and even worst population crash when that new energy sources is exhausted in the future.

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    4. Michel Syna Rahme

      logged in via email @hotmail.com

      In reply to Greg Boyles

      Hehe interesting view. You could be right. However, I do truly believe after much research in a future of energy supply derived from a strong combination and reliable mix of existing and future Renewable Energy sources. It will be a long time before the sun explodes and the wind stops blowing, tide stops flowing , waves stop crashing, rain stops falling, geothermal stops heating , algae stops processing, hydrogen stops carrying.

      What human population that combination of Renewables alongside conventional gas as a transition can sustain I am not sure about. But whatever that number ends up being, will be the number. Some will die, some won't, those are the inevitabilities of evolution and I accept.

      Goodnight mate

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    5. Michel Syna Rahme

      logged in via email @hotmail.com

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Hehe that's a funny one Pete, a bit off topic but lets go with it. It seems to be your big gut fear, and I'm sad you are confused in that way. Let's see "Ormonde", where is that name from, Ireland? I have read a few good books about Ireland and its history but to save time, it's late, let me cut out of Wikipedia some info for you :

      "The Iron Age in Ireland began about 600 BC. The period between the start of the Iron Age and the historic period (AD 431) saw the gradual infiltration of small groups…

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    6. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Yes Peter. That is one of the fears I have though not my central fear.

      I fear that our culture could be diluted by immigrants who do not share our democratic, secular and environmental values etc.

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    7. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Michel Syna Rahme

      That process was gradual with ample time for different culture to largely blend in harmony.

      That is NOT what Australia and the west is doing at present.

      At present our annual immigration intakes are not gradual but rather at, or have been at, unprecedented levels.

      That does not result in gradual harmonious blending of cultures.

      It is close to re-colonisation, and history has taught us over and over again that re-colonisation leads to conflict!

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    8. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Michel Syna Rahme

      Michel...

      No no not my fear at all - hence the quotes. Greg on the other hand hides a very ugly racism and "culturalism" in pious rhetoric about sustainable population. We have a history Greg and me - and I want people to know what this bloke really thinks and the implications of his fear and hatred.

      Now speaking of history - thanks for the "roots" instalment. My lot were from up around Munster in the North ... a tough lot by all accounts ... local warlords with a sideline in fighting the…

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    9. Michel Syna Rahme

      logged in via email @hotmail.com

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Sorry for the misunderstanding Peter. Yes I was a bit confused, because without going back over all your other previous comments, I seem to remember thinking of you as a good guy.

      Yes I do notice a hint of an underlying strain in Greg's shoulder. Perhaps we can help him heal it. Have a good day!

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    10. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter the only people that I genuinely HATE is you and your lobby!

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    11. Greg Boyles

      Lanscaper and former medical scientist

      In reply to Michel Syna Rahme

      And perhaps Michel I could help to heal the ignorance, narrow mindedness and naivity of yourself and your lobby.

      Help you to truly understand what is at stake for future generations of Australians (not just white skinned Australians).

      Help you to break out of your mindset that sees you constantly grabbing for short term quick fixes that acheive nothing for the vast majority of would be refugees in the long term.

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