Making sense of the polls

Making sense of the polls

Final Queensland Polls have LNP Narrowly Ahead

The Queensland election will be held today. Polls close at 6pm local time (7pm in the south eastern states). We have had final polls from ReachTEL, Galaxy and Newspoll, which all have the Liberal National Party (LNP) leading by 52-48. Here is the poll table. ReachTEL is being compared with a 20 January poll, while the last Newspoll and Galaxy polls were at the start of the campaign.

final Qld polls.

All three polls had very similar major party primary votes of 41% for the LNP to 37% for Labor. Greens support was at 6-8%, while Palmer United Party (PUP) has slumped to only 4% in both Galaxy and ReachTEL. The Poll Bludger’s final Queensland BludgerTrack has the LNP leading by 51.7-48.3 from primaries of 41.7% for the LNP, 37.6% for Labor and 7.5% for the Greens. The LNP is predicted to win 52 of the 89 seats to 34 for Labor.

The Two Party Preferred (2PP) figures are based on 2012 preference flows. As I said in my preview article, Labor is almost certain to win a higher share of minor party preferences than they received in 2012. However, in the last Victorian and Federal elections, pollsters underestimated the Coalition’s primary vote. If this happens in Queensland, the LNP will still win despite preference flow changes.

This election is likely to be disappointing for PUP and the Greens. After peaking at over 15% in the July ReachTEL, PUP only registered 4.4% in ReachTEL’s final poll; they are very unlikely to win any seats now. Pollsters always overestimate the Greens’ support, and on that basis I think the Greens are likely to win less than 7% of the Queensland vote, compared with 7.5% in 2012 and 8.4% in 2009.

Notes on These Polls

  • In ReachTEL, 62% thought the LNP was most likely to win, compared with 38% for Labor. Newman’s total good rating was 34% (up 2), and his total poor rating was 52% (up 6) for a net approval of -18, down 4 points. Palaszczuk’s net approval rating was -9, down 6 points. Voters were asked whether the LNP had lived up to Newman’s 2012 victory speech promise to conduct themselves with “humility, grace and dignity”; electors disagreed with this by 59-29. By a 55-45 margin, voters thought Palaszczuk had run a better campaign than Newman. 34% said the economy had had the most impact on their vote, with 27% selecting asset leasing; Labor supporters were more likely to select asset leasing.

  • In Galaxy, 44% thought that Palaszczuk had run the better campaign, compared to 41% for Newman. By a narrow 48-47 margin, voters thought Queensland was headed in the right direction, down from a 52-41 right direction margin in November.

  • Newspoll had Newman’s satisfied rating down 6% to 35% and his dissatisfied rating up 7% to 58% for a net approval of -23, down 13 points. Kevin Bonham tweeted that no state Premier has been returned with such a dire election eve Newspoll rating. Newman is likely to lose Ashgrove, so a re-elected LNP will probably be without him. Palaszczuk had a -2 net approval, down from a zero net rating. 68% were strongly committed to voting for their chosen party, higher than in Newspoll’s final polls at the last three Queensland elections. Voters thought the LNP was more likely to win by 51-28.

Galaxy has Newman Trailing 55-45 in Ashgrove

A Galaxy poll in Newman’s seat of Ashgrove finds Labor’s Kate Jones leading by an emphatic 55-45 margin from primary votes of 48% for Jones, 42% for Newman and 8% for the Greens. Update 1:30pm: This poll was taken Tuesday to Thursday with a sample of 800. ReachTEL’s poll taken last Tuesday had Jones ahead by 54-46. Unless there is major poll error in Ashgrove, Newman will lose his seat.

No Court Challenge in SA Fisher By-Election

In early December, Labor won a SA by-election by just nine votes, giving them a very unexpected majority government. On Wednesday, the deadline for lodging a court challenge to the results expired. As a result, Labor’s win is confirmed.

Today, the SA Davenport by-election will also be held. This was caused by the retirement of a Liberal MP; the Liberals won it by 8.1% at the 2014 state election.