tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/adelaide-14275/articlesAdelaide – The Conversation2023-06-16T05:09:39Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2076122023-06-16T05:09:39Z2023-06-16T05:09:39ZCuts in the state budget, a gallery on hold and millions on sports: the decline of arts support in South Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532308/original/file-20230616-27-intfya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3600%2C2392&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Adelaide Festival Centre <a href="https://www.aussietheatre.com.au/news/hip-hip-hooray-the-iconic-adelaide-festival-centre-celebrates-turning-50-today">is celebrating</a> its 50th anniversary this month. Opened in 1973, the building was completed before the Sydney Opera House, Arts Centre Melbourne and the Queensland Performing Arts Centre. </p>
<p>South Australia was regarded as a leader of the arts in Australia for around three decades from 1970 to the 1990s and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/adelaide/athens-of-the-south/1BCD191CDED2F4A7E9AB04952E85B8AC">dubbed internationally</a> the “Athens of the South”. </p>
<p>Since the early 21st century, other states have woken up to the benefits of the arts and are now supporting lively creative industries within their midst. South Australia though has done the opposite. </p>
<p>The arts are no longer seen as a priority. </p>
<h2>Arts in the budget</h2>
<p>In 2018, under the previous Liberal state government, the arts and cultural portfolio Arts South Australia was <a href="https://theconversation.com/cuts-and-restructures-send-alarm-through-south-australias-arts-sector-103441">broken up</a> and sent to different government departments. </p>
<p>Youth arts were put into the Education Department. The SA Film Corporation, the Adelaide Film Festival and the Jam Factory were relocated to the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science. The North Terrace cultural institutions such as the state art gallery, museum and library – while administered by the Premier’s department – are now overseen by a generic arm of the department who are not arts or cultural specialists. </p>
<p>The few remaining staff left from Arts South Australia were placed within a sector of the Department of Premier and Cabinet called “Communities and Corporate”, one of <a href="https://www.dpc.sa.gov.au/about-the-department/strategic-direction/DPC-organisational-chart.pdf">ten portfolios</a> within the department. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cuts-and-restructures-send-alarm-through-south-australias-arts-sector-103441">Cuts and restructures send alarm through South Australia's arts sector</a>
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<p>The South Australian state budget was handed down this week. The only mention of the arts in the budget was within the major events fund where there is a commitment of <a href="https://www.statebudget.sa.gov.au/our-budget/Major_events,_sports_and_arts">$2 million over four years</a> to the Adelaide Film Festival’s investment fund.</p>
<p>Within the Department of Premier and Cabinet, “Arts and Cultural Policy and Support” receives a <a href="https://www.statebudget.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/914179/2023-24-Agency-Statements-Volume-4.pdf">reduction of $1.2 million</a> from the amount actually spent on the arts in 2022–23.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.arts.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/cultural-funding-by-government-2020-21-south-australia.pdf">There was</a> a 6% drop in cultural spending in South Australia in 2019, and a further 3% drop in 2020. </p>
<p>The continued reductions in arts funding seem counter intuitive given the negative impact of COVID on the arts and cultural sector.</p>
<h2>Adelaide’s stalled new gallery</h2>
<p>In 2016, the Labor government and the Art Gallery of South Australia commissioned a report and undertook a <a href="https://competitions.malcolmreading.com/adelaidecontemporary/overview.html">design competition</a> for the development of a new contemporary art space at the old location of Royal Adelaide Hospital on North Terrace, known as Lot Fourteen.</p>
<p>The new gallery became an <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/sa-election-2018/sa-liberals-propose-national-aboriginal-art-and-culture-gallery-highend-hotel-for-old-rah-site/news-story/4dffcba14fe283514351fbda43121bdb">election issue</a> in 2018, with the Liberal party running on a platform of developing a national Indigenous arts centre. </p>
<p>After the Liberal party won the election, the gallery was named Tarrkarri (“future” in Kaurna language) and was <a href="https://architectureau.com/articles/sa-govt-pushes-ahead-with-adelaide-contemporary-alternative/">due to be completed</a> in 2023.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532309/original/file-20230616-17-8wlqgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532309/original/file-20230616-17-8wlqgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532309/original/file-20230616-17-8wlqgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532309/original/file-20230616-17-8wlqgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532309/original/file-20230616-17-8wlqgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532309/original/file-20230616-17-8wlqgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532309/original/file-20230616-17-8wlqgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532309/original/file-20230616-17-8wlqgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The proposed design for Tarrkarri. Design credit: Diller Scofidio no+ Renfro and Woods Bagot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Image courtesy Lot Fourteen.</span></span>
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<p>After Labor got back into government in early 2022, the development of Tarrkarri was put on hold while the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-31/sa-government-review-into-indigenous-art-gallery-tarrkari/101596090">project was reviewed</a> by a committee appointed by the government. </p>
<p>As of June 2023, the site remains <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-16/tarrakarri-project-on-hold-in-adelaide/102347962">a hole in the ground</a> with a potential cost blow out of $400 million while the government reviews the committee’s recommendations. </p>
<p>Significantly, there is no additional money promised for the project in the 2023–24 state budget, although there is a forecast completion date of 2027.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/perth-already-has-a-museum-of-indigenous-art-and-culture-with-proper-funding-it-could-be-our-national-centre-144280">Perth already has a museum of Indigenous art and culture. With proper funding, it could be our national centre</a>
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<h2>A critical lack of infrastructure</h2>
<p>There has been a critical lack of cultural infrastructure in South Australia for many years across all artform areas. </p>
<p>There has been a call for a <a href="https://www.adelaidereview.com.au/arts/performing-arts/2016/03/04/the-case-for-a-new-concert-hall-in-adelaide/">dedicated concert hall</a> in Adelaide for many years. Despite a <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/11/04/city-concert-hall-report-finished-but-kept-under-wraps/">scoping study</a> completed in 2021, nothing has happened so far, and the state’s music audience continues to miss out on many music groups and individuals touring the country. </p>
<p>In May 2023, the Malinauskas Government shelved plans to build a new storage centre for the state collections housed at the state museum, library and art gallery, citing <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2023/05/05/completely-insufficient-money-troubles-stall-sa-cultural-collection-hub/">insufficient funds</a>. </p>
<p>Given the monetary and cultural value of these collections, it might be argued that not storing them appropriately is, to misquote Oscar Wilde, rather careless. </p>
<h2>Sports are the big winners</h2>
<p>Arts funding in South Australia has not seen any noticeable increase for several years and many agencies and arts organisations are struggling to survive. </p>
<p>While most other states have acquired new concert halls, new art galleries and theatre spaces over the past two decades, South Australia has remained culturally static. The only updated space is the refurbished <a href="https://indaily.com.au/arts-culture/2020/06/12/inside-the-new-look-her-majestys-theatre/">Her Majesty’s Theatre</a>. </p>
<p>South Australia is now a long way behind all the other mainland states in terms of <a href="https://www.arts.gov.au/publications/cultural-funding-government-2020-21-states-and-territories">actual expenditure</a> on arts and culture – although it sits fourth on per capita support.</p>
<p>When Labor was elected in 2022 there <a href="https://musictrust.com.au/loudmouth/the-arts-policy-of-the-new-south-australian-labor-government/">was hope</a> there would be an immediate revival of a government entity focusing on the arts. It was also hoped Labor would <a href="https://indaily.com.au/arts-culture/2022/08/19/is-adelaides-arts-infrastructure-keeping-up-with-our-ambitions/">be proactive</a> about increasing arts support and build much needed new cultural infrastructure.</p>
<p>Since its election in early 2022, the state Labor government has spent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-16/adelaide-500-budget-blown-out-in-2022/101779892">$35 million</a> on reviving a car race, <a href="https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/afl-makes-huge-announcement-on-future-of-gather-round/news-story/6e000cd44c97b82af6f7418d8d77dfa3">around $14 million</a> on the AFL Gather Round, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-14/south-australia-to-host-controversial-liv-golf-series/101650096">unknown millions</a> on LIV Golf and committed <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-10/adelaide-aquatic-centre-cost-blow-out/102465896">$135 million</a> towards the development of a new swimming centre. </p>
<p>Sports events are a winner under the Malinauskas Labor government. The arts do not get a mention. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liv-golf-sportwashing-vs-the-commercial-value-of-public-attention-185478">LIV Golf: Sportwashing vs. the commercial value of public attention</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207612/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Caust has previously received funding from the Australia Council. She is a member of the Arts Industry Council (SA) and NAVA. </span></em></p>The continued reductions in arts funding seem counter intuitive given the negative impact of COVID on the arts and cultural sector.Jo Caust, Associate Professor and Principal Fellow (Hon), School of Culture and Communication, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1589612021-04-15T07:15:07Z2021-04-15T07:15:07ZThere’s a mental health emergency happening in South Australia. We need a radical overhaul<p>While all eyes are on Australia’s severely faltering vaccine rollout, in South Australia the public health system is in a state of turmoil.</p>
<p>Former Central Adelaide Local Health Network mental health director John Mendoza — effectively the state’s mental health boss until he resigned last week — <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/04/08/its-a-joke-exiting-mental-health-chief-maintains-rage-over-sa-health-failures/">has blasted</a> the South Australian government, alleging a series of failures, budget cuts, and lack of commitment to reforming the state’s mental health system.</p>
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<p>So what’s the problem, and how can it be fixed?</p>
<h2>Over capacity</h2>
<p>Demand for mental health services <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/household-impacts-covid-19-survey/6-10-july-2020#mental-health-and-related-services">has increased</a> over the past year because of the COVID pandemic. </p>
<p>While this is true across Australia, the demand for mental health support is now overwhelming South Australian emergency departments. Mendoza noted close to <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/04/08/its-a-joke-exiting-mental-health-chief-maintains-rage-over-sa-health-failures/">a 40% increase</a> in mental health presentations to the Royal Adelaide Hospital between February 2019 and February 2021. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports-data/indicators/australias-health-performance-framework/national/all-australia/access/accessibility">Australian Institute of Health and Welfare</a> data, South Australia falls below the national average when it comes to treating patients who present to emergency departments in a timely manner.</p>
<p>Through no fault of their own, people in mental health crisis are creating a backlog in emergency departments, contributing to overcrowding, long wait times for admission, and therefore ramping — where patients are left waiting in ambulances at the hospital entrance. </p>
<p>Ambulance services in South Australia are reportedly at <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/sa-ambos-at-breaking-point-union-calls-for-more-funding-to-better-protect-staff-and-patients/news-story/cf0b062c3a25501269eb7f9d2edbba99">breaking point</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/waiting-for-better-care-why-australias-hospitals-and-health-care-are-failing-104862">Waiting for better care: why Australia’s hospitals and health care are failing</a>
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<h2>Ramping</h2>
<p>The issue of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2700606/">ramping</a> is emblematic of the crisis in emergency department access.</p>
<p>An <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/sahealth-ocp-assets/general-downloads/Delays-in-Transfer-of-Care-for-Mental-Health-Consumers-at-SA-EDs.pdf">investigation</a> into ramping at South Australian hospitals conducted before the pandemic found more than <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/04/01/truly-demoralising-bombshell-report-reveals-children-elderly-at-mercy-of-ambulance-ramping/">34% of mental health patients</a> brought by ambulance to South Australian emergency departments experienced ramping. </p>
<p>These delays in receiving care, sometimes lasting several hours, can exacerbate psychological trauma and even <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-27/patient-harm-caused-by-rah-ramping-revealed-new-documents/10851770">cause harm</a> for patients. </p>
<p>The problem of ramping affects patients with physical illnesses too. And because paramedics need to stay with patients for longer, ramping also diverts paramedics from other jobs.</p>
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<img alt="Two health-care workers move a patient through a hospital corridor." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395180/original/file-20210415-23-19llbn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395180/original/file-20210415-23-19llbn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395180/original/file-20210415-23-19llbn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395180/original/file-20210415-23-19llbn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395180/original/file-20210415-23-19llbn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395180/original/file-20210415-23-19llbn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395180/original/file-20210415-23-19llbn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">When emergency departments struggle to keep up, it can lead to ramping.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>While <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/04/07/not-going-to-waste-my-time-mental-health-chief-blasts-sa-health-on-way-out-door/">John Mendoza’s controversial exit</a> has lifted the lid on the crisis in South Australia’s public health system, other states and territories face <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30014624/#:%7E:text=Results%3A%20After%20the%20implementation%20of,to%205%20post%2DCDU%20implementation.">similar problems</a> in emergency mental health care. And for other jurisdictions, too, the pandemic might exacerbate these challenges.</p>
<h2>The ED should be a last resort</h2>
<p>In a responsive, modern mental health-care system, the emergency department should be the <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/new-models-care-mental-health-offer-hope-australian-hundertmark/?articleId=6714873080080166912">last resort</a> for access to care. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Grattan-Inst-sub-mental-health.pdf">Grattan Institute</a> has suggested there’s a “a yawning gap for people who need intensive community support but not inpatient care”. In a report published in 2020, it said federal and state governments need to work more closely to provide appropriate resources for mental health care.</p>
<p>The focus should be on health promotion and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5330334/">prevention</a> through mental health programs and services in the community rather than waiting for a crisis to occur. We need accurate surveillance of demand for mental health care, and services must be well-resourced to prevent the system becoming overwhelmed. </p>
<p>Upon his resignation, <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/mendoza-this-is-what-is-needed-right-here-right-now-to-save-lives-and-prevent-an-exodus-of-clinicians/news-story/e3f334c1418c6b9aaccc14ecc00776aa">Mendoza sounded alarm bells</a> that this was not happening. He warned that South Australia’s mental health system is approaching crisis unless the government allocates additional resources urgently.</p>
<p>Mendoza has been supported by senior mental health staff and the <a href="https://www.ranzcp.org/news-policy/news/%E2%80%9Csouth-australians-deserve-better%E2%80%9D-mental-health-s">Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists</a>, who argued South Australians deserve better.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-ignore-mental-illness-prevention-in-a-covid-19-world-145686">We can't ignore mental illness prevention in a COVID-19 world</a>
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<h2>A radical overhaul</h2>
<p>Mendoza outlined a <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/mendoza-this-is-what-is-needed-right-here-right-now-to-save-lives-and-prevent-an-exodus-of-clinicians/news-story/e3f334c1418c6b9aaccc14ecc00776aa">ten-point plan</a> to radically overhaul South Australia’s mental health system.</p>
<p>Among the recommendations is recruiting more mental health staff. Chronic under-resourcing in <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/mental-health-services/mental-health-services-in-australia/report-contents/community-mental-health-care-services">community</a> teams at present means the remaining staff are overworked and stressed attempting to fill the gaps. This inevitably leads to consumer needs not being met, resulting in increased emergency department presentations.</p>
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<p>Meanwhile, he’s called for upskilling of first responders. This involves providing specialised training for emergency personnel, such as police and ambulance staff, around supporting people in a mental health crisis.</p>
<p>Mendoza also flagged the importance of non-ambulance transfers for mental health patients — so having dedicated vehicles to transport mental health patients. South Australia is the <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/mendoza-this-is-what-is-needed-right-here-right-now-to-save-lives-and-prevent-an-exodus-of-clinicians/news-story/e3f334c1418c6b9aaccc14ecc00776aa">only jurisdiction</a> still exclusively using stretcher-based transport for all mental health patients, meaning they’re strapped in inside the ambulance. This restrictive practice is unnecessary, traumatising, and contributes <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/regional-sa-paramedics-call-for-more-resources-staff/100023896">to ramping</a>.</p>
<p>Further, Mendoza recommended upscaling current prevention programs. These include programs providing mental health expertise to support local general practitioners, and increasing support in people’s homes.</p>
<p>He also suggested providing emergency accommodation for <a href="http://www.lawfoundation.net.au/ljf/site/templates/resources/$file/Homelessness_SA.pdf">people experiencing homelessness</a> with mental health issues, recognising homelessness is a key cause of social stress.</p>
<p>Importantly, Mendoza strongly advocated that forensic patients (people with a mental disorder who have committed a crime) shouldn’t be housed in general hospitals while waiting for a mental health bed. This means providing an adequate number of beds for forensic mental health admissions (the target is 80, up from the <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/04/14/hospital-patients-under-guard-as-govt-misses-key-mental-health-target/?fbclid=IwAR13hpGUCdw8YN2-bbnQRPOEveIndp6ob0tf1m1EKBnk71RCTeqJ6UH3DeI">60 we have now</a>). </p>
<p>Currently, patients unable to access care in a specialist forensic psychiatric facility are reportedly <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/04/14/hospital-patients-under-guard-as-govt-misses-key-mental-health-target/?fbclid=IwAR13hpGUCdw8YN2-bbnQRPOEveIndp6ob0tf1m1EKBnk71RCTeqJ6UH3DeI">restrained with handcuffs</a> and surrounded by security guards in the emergency department.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-asylums-to-gp-clinics-the-missing-middle-in-mental-health-care-46345">From asylums to GP clinics: the missing middle in mental health care</a>
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<p>The ten-point plan offers insightful recommendations from someone who has a deep understanding and experience of the inner workings of the current mental health system, available resources, and areas of weakness. And while it’s designed to fix South Australia’s crisis, there are some recommendations other states would do well to consider.</p>
<p>For South Australia moving forward, the most critical aspect will be easing the pressure on emergency departments by providing targeted staffing resources within community care networks. The second is changing the way mental health patients are transported to hospital.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158961/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Musker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The COVID pandemic has increased the strain on an already troubled mental health system in South Australia. Now, the state’s outgoing mental health boss is calling for accountability and change.Michael Musker, Senior Research Fellow, South Australian Health & Medical Research InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1568442021-04-05T20:07:39Z2021-04-05T20:07:39ZWhy cities planning to spend billions on light rail should look again at what buses can do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392737/original/file-20210331-21-cpalne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C5184%2C3430&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many cities in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/parramatta-light-rail-costs-blow-out-to-more-than-35-billion-20161015-gs300q.html">Australia</a> and <a href="https://wrirosscities.org/our-work/project-city/brtdataorg-global-database-bus-rapid-transit">around the world</a> have recently made or proposed investments in new light rail systems. They often do so in the belief this will not only increase public transport use, but also lead urban renewal and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016718517300210">improve a city’s global image</a>. However, compared to light rail, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X21000018">my research</a> shows a system of buses running along dedicated corridors, known as <a href="http://bic.asn.au/information-for-moving-people/bus-rapid-transit">bus rapid transit</a>, has many advantages for Adelaide (the focus of my research) and cities like it.</p>
<p>The advantages include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a bus rapid transit system is cheaper to construct and run</p></li>
<li><p>it takes less time to introduce with less disruption</p></li>
<li><p>being able to leave designated lanes offers greater flexibility to pick up passengers where and when needed.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In contrast, retrofitting light rail onto arterial roads has proven <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/parramatta-light-rail-costs-blow-out-to-more-than-35-billion-20161015-gs300q.html">expensive</a>, slow and <a href="https://www.railway-technology.com/features/sydney-light-rail-fiasco/">highly disruptive</a>. For example, 12.5km of arterial-based <a href="https://www.railexpress.com.au/auditor-general-calculates-cost-of-sydney-light-rail-at-3-1bn/">light rail in Sydney</a> cost over A$150 million per kilometre and took more than five years to complete. Given these inherent problems, Australian cities such as <a href="https://www.transportplan.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/117444/Our_Plan.pdf">Adelaide</a> with new light rail systems on the drawing board should first take another look at bus rapid transit.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trackless-trams-v-light-rail-its-not-a-contest-both-can-improve-our-cities-125134">Trackless trams v light rail? It's not a contest – both can improve our cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Australian cities face hurdles to public transport use</h2>
<p>Most Australian state and territory governments have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837718316983">similar transport-related goals</a>. These include to become more environmentally sustainable and reduce traffic congestion, which saps productivity. They typically aim to achieve these goals <a href="https://www.transport.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/1613302/200601-ACT-Transport-Strategy_web.pdf">by increasing public transport use</a> at the expense of cars. </p>
<p>Globally, affluent cities with high levels of public transport use have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192091400114X">comprehensive public transport networks</a>. These systems allow people to travel from one place to another anywhere in the city quickly, cheaply and conveniently with minimal interchanges. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">Our new PM wants to 'bust congestion' – here are four ways he could do that</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>In contrast, Australian cities are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192091400114X">car-oriented</a>. Their radial <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07293682.2013.795179">“hub and spoke” public transport systems</a> primarily allow people to get to central business districts and occasionally major regional centres quickly, cheaply and conveniently. They struggle to do so for suburb-to-suburb trips. </p>
<p>In Australian cities, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0.55.001%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7ECommuting%20Distance%20to%20Place%20of%20Work%7E30">75-90% of jobs and commerce</a> are located in their suburbs. This means the structure of public transport is a major challenge for increasing patronage at the expense of cars. But what if existing arterial roads can be converted for use by rapid bus transit?</p>
<h2>Adelaide: a case study</h2>
<p>My research looked at the alternative of bus rapid transit along a corridor in metropolitan Adelaide where a <a href="https://www.transportplan.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/117444/Our_Plan.pdf">new light rail track</a> is proposed. From the CBD, this corridor runs about 7km east to the hills and 9km west to the sea. As an indication of the likely cost, a 1km extension along North Terrace of an existing line cost <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/cost-of-adelaide-tram-to-blow-out-to-124m">more than $A120 million</a> in 2018. </p>
<p>The area within 3km of the corridor contains around <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X21000018">40% of metropolitan Adelaide’s jobs</a>, major recreation and shopping facilities, most of its universities, and the airport.
Buses running in often highly congested and slow traffic provide the only public transport in the area. As a result, public transport use is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X21000018">very low</a> compared to similar areas in other Australian cities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-avoid-cars-clogging-our-cities-during-coronavirus-recovery-140744">How to avoid cars clogging our cities during coronavirus recovery</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Bus rapid transit services run along designated lanes down the centre of arterial roads, as would an arterial-based light rail. </p>
<p>Stops are spaced at similar intervals to light rail and resemble stations rather than a typical bus stop. Such systems are in place around the globe, one of the most famous being in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/may/26/curitiba-brazil-brt-transport-revolution-history-cities-50-buildings">Curitiba, Brazil</a>. </p>
<h2>The advantages of buses add up</h2>
<p>The great advantage a bus-based system has over light rail is cost. They can run along existing roads and don’t need expensive tracks and overhead wires. </p>
<p>As a result, bus rapid transit <a href="https://www.itdp.org/library/standards-and-guides/the-bus-rapid-transit-standard/">can be built</a> for <a href="https://wrirosscities.org/our-work/project-city/brtdataorg-global-database-bus-rapid-transit">less than 10% of the cost of light rail</a>. The buses are also <a href="https://wrirosscities.org/tags/brtdataorg">cheaper to run</a> per passenger journey and have similar journey speeds to light rail. Bus rapid transit can be established in <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4sn2f5wc">months rather than years with minimal disruption</a> to surrounding businesses and residents.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trees-versus-light-rail-we-need-to-rethink-skewed-urban-planning-values-57206">Trees versus light rail: we need to rethink skewed urban planning values</a>
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</em>
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<p>Buses do have some disadvantages compared to light rail. For a start, when diesel buses are used, they cause significant <a href="https://ppiaf.org/sites/ppiaf.org/files/documents/toolkits/UrbanBusToolkit/assets/1/1b/1b12.html#:%7E:text=Buses%20may%20contribute%20to%20atmospheric,fuel%20and%20emit%20excessive%20exhaust.">noise and air pollution</a>. Using electric buses can overcome these problems. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Electric bus being charged on a road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Using electric buses overcomes the problems of noise and air pollution.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/electric-bus-on-city-street-1452327569">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-forget-buses-six-rules-for-improving-city-bus-services-94984">Don't forget buses: six rules for improving city bus services</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<p>In addition, individual vehicles normally carry fewer passengers than light rail. However, my research shows low passenger capacity per vehicle is an advantage in low-density suburban areas, such as those along the proposed corridor in Adelaide. That’s because it means the buses have to run more often, making the service more regular, convenient and reliable. </p>
<p>Another advantage over light rail is that in low-density areas, vehicles can leave designated lanes and venture for 2-4km into suburbs to pick up and drop off passengers. This vastly expands the number of households in the system’s catchment and means passengers can get to their destinations with no interchange or just one. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/1-million-rides-and-counting-on-demand-services-bring-public-transport-to-the-suburbs-132355">1 million rides and counting: on-demand services bring public transport to the suburbs</a>
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<p>Finally, the inner and middle suburbs of Adelaide, where most residents live and work, have many wide straight roads suitable for bus rapid transit services. It would be possible to develop around 100km of BRT lanes connecting existing light rail, heavy rail and busway infrastructure. I estimate a comprehensive network could be built for well under a billion dollars in a few years. </p>
<p>A similarly sized light rail network would cost tens of billions of dollars and take decades to complete, if it was to happen at all. </p>
<p>Therefore, if cities want people to switch from cars to public transport, bus rapid transit is the superior option in metropolitan Adelaide and potentially other cities with arterial road networks and low suburban densities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156844/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael McGreevy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In many cities contemplating new light rail systems, bus rapid transit offers a cheaper, faster and more flexible solution.Michael McGreevy, Research Associate, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1503682020-11-18T07:03:16Z2020-11-18T07:03:16ZSouth Australia’s 6-day lockdown shows we need to take hotel quarantine more seriously<p>South Australian Premier Steven Marshall today announced a six-day “circuit breaker” lockdown to try and snuff out the state’s COVID outbreak.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-18/sa-ordered-into-major-lockdowns-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/12894666">From midnight Wednesday</a>, residents will be asked to stay in their homes. Hospitality venues will shut, as will schools and universities. Construction will grind to a halt and exercise won’t be allowed outside the home.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1328891435450417152"}"></div></p>
<p>The only permitted reasons to leave home are to shop for food or medicine, or for essential health care. Elective surgery will be paused, except for urgent operations.</p>
<p>There are now <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-18/coronavirus-australia-live-news-covid19-update-adelaide-outbreak/12893146">22 cases linked to the cluster</a> that emerged from hotel quarantine, and a further seven suspected cases.</p>
<h2>Why lockdown?</h2>
<p>While this may seem like an overly cautious approach to a cluster that isn’t yet as big as we’ve seen in other places, I think it’s a wise move.</p>
<p>This is how lockdowns should be used. Indeed, the World Health Organisation <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-12/world-health-organization-coronavirus-lockdown-advice/12753688">advocates lockdowns</a> as a way to buy precious time while other essential public health measures are mobilised, such as contact tracing and widespread testing. The focus here is on preventing a rise in cases, unlike the lockdown in Melbourne where the cases had already taken off widely in the community and it was about turning the wave around.</p>
<p>We’ve seen the virus in this particular cluster spread very rapidly. In just two weeks it has spread through <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/nov/18/south-australia-covid-hotel-quarantine-nsw-victoria-politics-japan?page=with:block-5fb48b748f08161b0b9c6f6f#liveblog-navigation">five generations</a> — that is, to five “rings” beyond the initial case.</p>
<p>We’ve also seen cases passed on through quite casual contact, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-18/quarantine-orders-issued-as-sa-coronavirus-cluster-grows/12894046">via a pizza shop</a> in the suburb of Woodville.</p>
<p>The state’s chief health officer, Nicola Spurrier, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This particular strain has […] a very, very short incubation period. That means when somebody gets exposed, it is taking 24 hours or even less for that person to become infectious to others, and the other characteristic of the cases we have seen so far is they have had minimal symptoms and sometimes no symptoms but have been able to pass it on to others.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This short incubation period and rapid spread is why the government has opted for a six-day lockdown, giving the space to put out the spot fire while protecting the wider community, and especially high-risk settings and vulnerable populations where cases numbers can escalate rapidly with serious consequences.</p>
<p>Also, as Spurrier said, the cases so far have had no, or very mild, symptoms. So this six-day window allows the testing of close and casual contacts to be completed so the cases that are out there become visible to the health department.</p>
<p>The decision to restrict exercise altogether is strict, but warranted in my view. The rationale is similar to putting a wide range of people into isolation, as they don’t yet know where the edge is of the current cases, or the full extent of exposure. The rationale for the extension of restrictions beyond Adelaide and surrounds to the whole state is less clear at this stage.</p>
<p>If it protects the population from an escalation of cases, then six days without outdoor exercise will ultimately be better for physical and mental health than longer strict rules, even with some exercise allowed.</p>
<p>Significant restrictions will remain after the six days, but not full lockdown, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-18/coronavirus-australia-live-news-covid19-update-adelaide-outbreak/12893146">according to</a> the state’s Police Commissioner Grant Stevens.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-australias-covid-outbreak-what-we-know-so-far-and-what-needs-to-happen-next-150160">South Australia's COVID outbreak: what we know so far, and what needs to happen next</a>
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<h2>The good news</h2>
<p>The good news is there have been no mystery cases so far. All positive cases have been linked back to hotel quarantine at the Peppers Waymouth Hotel (known as a “medi-hotel” locally).</p>
<p>Testing rates have been very high. Some <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-17/adelaide-coronavirus-cluster-how-it-began-explained/12891226">5,300 tests</a> were done on Monday, and more than <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-cautious-ama-says-australians-shouldn-t-get-back-to-normal-20201117-p56f8y.html">6,000 on Tuesday</a>. This number of tests is comparable to three or four times that number in a larger city like Melbourne. Local residents have been very patient in queuing up to get tested, sometimes for several hours.</p>
<p>South Australia’s contact tracing team hasn’t really been severely tested during the pandemic. But the team has received <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/11/national-contact-tracing-review-national-contact-tracing-review.pdf">extensive training</a> and is reportedly robust, having been given the tick of approval from Chief Scientist Alan Finkel’s recent <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/national-contact-tracing-review">review</a> into Australia’s contact tracing, published last Friday.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/exponential-growth-in-covid-cases-would-overwhelm-any-states-contact-tracing-australia-needs-an-automated-system-150166">Exponential growth in COVID cases would overwhelm any state's contact tracing. Australia needs an automated system</a>
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<hr>
<p>More than 4,000 people have been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-18/quarantine-orders-issued-as-sa-coronavirus-cluster-grows/12894046">quarantined already</a>, including not just contacts, but contacts of contacts, and even beyond that to ensure “casual contacts” are also followed up and tested. This is a sign of a rapid and strong public health response.</p>
<h2>What needs to change?</h2>
<p>Before this cluster, testing was not mandatory for hotel quarantine staff — although this has now changed to compulsory weekly testing.</p>
<p>This is a positive step, but in my view we should ideally start testing hotel quarantine staff daily.</p>
<p>Getting a nasal swab every day is quite intrusive, so I think we could use saliva tests instead. Yes, they <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-whats-the-new-coronavirus-saliva-test-and-how-does-it-work-141877">don’t have quite the same level of sensitivity</a> as the “gold standard” PCR tests based on nose and throat swabs, but they’re more tolerable for frequent testing.</p>
<p>Saliva samples can also be efficiently managed if pooled together, and if there’s evidence of a positive test in the broad sample, individual samples can then be checked. Testing early and often is the best approach.</p>
<p>We also need to get serious about resourcing our hotel workers. Spurrier <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-17/adelaide-coronavirus-cluster-how-it-began-explained/12891226">confirmed</a> some workers had worked at multiple sites. This obviously increases the risk of the virus spreading through the community — we saw this with some aged-care staff working across multiple venues in Victoria.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1328888743273512960"}"></div></p>
<p>We need to prevent workers from needing to work across multiple sites, by paying them more. Even if they’re not working full-time, they need to be paid as such to ensure they don’t need to take on extra work and increase the risk of spreading the virus to other workplaces. This goes for all staff — security staff as well as cleaners. Cleaners have a very important job and are particularly vulnerable.</p>
<p>I’d like to see national guidelines crafted for hotel quarantine. Today there is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-18/quarantine-hotel-staff-mandatory-weekly-testing-coronavirus/12896614">national agreement</a> on weekly testing, but I think this should be a minimum. Infection control protocols and monitoring, and pay rates with accompanying sole employment rules also need to be considered. It’s an issue that isn’t going to go away, and it’s an important gap that needs to be filled.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hows-your-life-under-lockdown-tweets-tell-the-tale-of-how-neighbourhoods-compare-147839">How's your life under lockdown? Tweets tell the tale of how neighbourhoods compare</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150368/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Bennett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In my view the short, sharp lockdown is warranted. It will give authorities time to discover the extent of exposure from this cluster.Catherine Bennett, Chair in Epidemiology, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1501602020-11-16T05:45:09Z2020-11-16T05:45:09ZSouth Australia’s COVID outbreak: what we know so far, and what needs to happen next<p>A COVID cluster linked to a quarantine hotel in Adelaide has today grown to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-16/seventeen-cases-adelaide-coronavirus-cluster-lyell-mcewin-/12886218">17 cases</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, the South Australian government has reintroduced <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/nt-wa-victoria-and-tasmania-impose-border-restrictions-as-adelaide-cluster-grows-to-17">certain restrictions</a>, including closing gyms, capping patrons in hospitality venues, and limiting visitors to private homes.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1328200135617044480"}"></div></p>
<p>Meanwhile, other states have reimposed <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/nt-wa-victoria-and-tasmania-impose-border-restrictions-as-adelaide-cluster-grows-to-17">border restrictions</a> for South Australians. </p>
<p>After months without any community transmission in the state, this is a big blow for South Australia. But with an effective public health response and cooperation from the community, the hope is we will be able to quickly get this under control.</p>
<h2>Seeded in hotel quarantine</h2>
<p>The first, or <a href="https://theconversation.com/finding-the-source-of-an-outbreak-is-important-but-the-term-patient-zero-is-a-problem-144493">index case</a>, to come to the attention of the health authorities was an 80-year-old woman who attended the emergency department of Lyell McEwin Hospital in Adelaide’s northeast. She comes from an extended family based in the city’s northern suburbs, 15 of whom have now been diagnosed with COVID-19.</p>
<p>Members of this extended family work in aged care, health care and the prison system — all high-risk settings for the spread of COVID-19. It’s possible some of these people worked while infectious, but this information hasn’t been released yet. </p>
<p>It’s been reported the origin of this cluster was <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2020/11/16/another-lockdown-on-cards-as-adelaide-covid-19-cluster-grows/">one of Adelaide’s quarantine hotels</a> (which in South Australia we call medi-hotels) where one member of the family worked. </p>
<p>It’s likely there’s been some kind of breach in the medi-hotel. We don’t know the exact role this person was working in, but it’s important we find out how they picked up the infection so we can address what went wrong. </p>
<p>From now on, staff working at medi-hotels will be <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2020/11/16/spurrier-was-concerned-about-medi-hotel-cases-before-cluster-breakout/">tested for COVID-19 weekly</a>. Before this outbreak, they were only asked to be tested if they had symptoms. In hindsight, regular testing should have been in place months ago.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/7-ways-to-better-design-quarantine-based-on-what-we-know-about-human-behaviour-144791">7 ways to better design quarantine, based on what we know about human behaviour</a>
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<h2>Déjà vu?</h2>
<p>We <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-11/fuel-spark-victoria-response-virus-public-health-bushfire/12443982">know</a> Victoria’s second wave began with someone working in the hotel quarantine system who passed it to their large family, who then spread it in the community.</p>
<p>While there are similarities between what happened in Victoria and what’s unfolding in Adelaide, there are also some notable differences. The first is that South Australia has a very strong public health system, whereas Victoria’s has had <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-s-health-department-needs-a-total-restructure-20200922-p55y1e.html">many problems</a>.</p>
<p>Second, South Australia doesn’t have the high-density population Victoria does. The population is smaller and more dispersed, making the virus easier to control. </p>
<p>Although both Victoria’s second wave and South Australia’s current cluster were seeded in hotel quarantine, the road out for Adelaide should be more akin to what we’ve seen in New South Wales. </p>
<p>Over recent months, several <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890">clusters</a> have emerged in NSW, but they have been stamped out before transmission got out of control. We stand a good chance of doing the same in Adelaide, and indeed must avoid a situation in which this cluster grows exponentially.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hotel-quarantine-interim-report-recommends-changes-but-accountability-questions-remain-147094">Hotel quarantine interim report recommends changes but accountability questions remain</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What needs to happen now?</h2>
<p>Testing will be crucial to getting a handle on this outbreak, and is already a focal point. Pop-up testing sites have already been established, and public health messaging is encouraging people with symptoms to get tested.</p>
<p>South Australia has a well established contact-tracing team which should manage the daily case load, as long as we don’t see exponential growth. The conventional wisdom in my field is that each case has on average ten or so close contacts. If close contacts of close contacts are investigated too (the “second ring” approach), 100 people need to be investigated for each case. With 17 cases, that’s already 1,700 contacts to deal with. So you can see how easily an outbreak can become too big to track. </p>
<p>It may be possible to avoid any kind of lockdown. If the cluster does get much bigger from here, the government might think about mandating masks. Restricting social gatherings and asking people to work from home where possible are also worthwhile measures. These measures could reduce transmission but won’t deal a major blow to South Australia’s economy. </p>
<h2>Border questions…</h2>
<p>The approach from other states to consider South Australia a “hotspot” and restrict entry, while no doubt disappointing for many, is a sensible move. </p>
<p>Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory are now asking people arriving from South Australia to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-16/coronavirus-australia-live-news-covid-19-latest-adelaide/12886306">self-quarantine</a>. Queensland will require all arrivals to go into <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/south-australia-s-covid-19-cluster-grows-to-17-locally-acquired-cases-20201116-p56euq.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1605490923">hotel quarantine</a>. </p>
<p>Now may be the time to seriously consider <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-15-minute-test-has-potential-but-standard-tests-are-still-the-best-way-to-track-covid-19-146844">rapid antigen testing</a> at all borders. These tests are not as accurate as the traditional COVID tests, but deliver results much more quickly, in as little as 15 minutes. <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/dan-andrews-says-victorian-border-with-south-australia-will-remain-open-after-outbreak/news-story/decd5bae61e4cb5a3dd3c4d7269e3a2a">Victoria</a> is considering this tool. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young man in his car gets a COVID test." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369517/original/file-20201116-13-1w547x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369517/original/file-20201116-13-1w547x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369517/original/file-20201116-13-1w547x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369517/original/file-20201116-13-1w547x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369517/original/file-20201116-13-1w547x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369517/original/file-20201116-13-1w547x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369517/original/file-20201116-13-1w547x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Testing and tracing will be crucial to control South Australia’s outbreak.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>…and broader questions</h2>
<p>In a situation like this, we should ask why we continue to operate high-risk quarantine hotels in the middle of a city. It would be much safer to quarantine people away from communities, like we did on <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-theres-merit-in-quarantining-people-on-christmas-island-to-prevent-the-spread-of-coronavirus-130879">Christmas Island</a> earlier in the pandemic.</p>
<p>I also believe we should establish a national centre to oversee contact tracing, hotel quarantine, and other important aspects of the pandemic’s management, ensuring all systems and training are uniform across Australia. </p>
<p>As domestic travel increases, this centre could host a national database with information gathered through QR codes, flight data, and so on. Local hubs in each state and territory would continue to be important.</p>
<p>South Australia’s current outbreak shows us this can happen anywhere — even in a place where COVID-19 is well under control. It’s likely this will be our COVID-normal, at least until we have a vaccine.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/where-did-victoria-go-so-wrong-with-contact-tracing-and-have-they-fixed-it-147993">Where did Victoria go so wrong with contact tracing and have they fixed it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150160/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Esterman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Australia’s COVID cluster is disappointing after a long stretch of no community transmission. Now we need to act to stop it growing exponentially.Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1393002020-06-03T20:09:55Z2020-06-03T20:09:55ZWe dug up Australian weather records back to 1838 and found snow is falling less often<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338663/original/file-20200530-78845-10bl8yn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C72%2C1022%2C712&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">State Library of South Australia</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As we slowly emerge from lockdown, local adventures are high on people’s wish lists. You may be planning a trip to the ski fields, or even the nearby hills to revel in the white stuff that occasionally falls around our southern cities after an icy winter blast. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05298-z">new research</a> explores these low-elevation snowfall events. We pieced together weather records back to 1838 to create Australia’s longest analysis of daily temperature extremes and their impacts on society. </p>
<p>These historical records can tell us a lot about Australia’s pre-industrial climate, before the large-scale burning of fossil fuels tainted global temperature records.</p>
<p>They also help provide a longer context to evaluate more recent temperature extremes. </p>
<p>We found snow was once a regular feature of the southern Australian climate. But as Australia continues to warm under climate change, cold extremes are becoming less frequent and heatwaves more common. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338667/original/file-20200530-78871-12zrq21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338667/original/file-20200530-78871-12zrq21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338667/original/file-20200530-78871-12zrq21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338667/original/file-20200530-78871-12zrq21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338667/original/file-20200530-78871-12zrq21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338667/original/file-20200530-78871-12zrq21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338667/original/file-20200530-78871-12zrq21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heatwaves in Adelaide are becoming more common.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Extending Australia’s climate record</h2>
<p>Data used by the Bureau of Meteorology to study long-term weather and climate dates back to the early 1900s. This is when good coverage of weather stations across the country began, and observations were taken in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-scientists-adjust-temperature-records-and-how-you-can-too-36825">standard way</a>.</p>
<p>But many <a href="https://theconversation.com/delving-through-settlers-diaries-can-reveal-australias-colonial-era-climate-72652">older weather records exist</a> in national and state archives and libraries, as well as local historical societies around the country.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts-129391">Some say we've seen bushfires worse than this before. But they're ignoring a few key facts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We analysed daily weather records from the coastal city of Adelaide and surrounding areas, including the Adelaide Hills, back to 1838. Adelaide is the Australian city <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901114000999">worst affected by heatwaves</a>, and the capital of our nation’s driest state, South Australia. </p>
<p>To crosscheck the heatwaves and cold extremes identified in our historical temperature observations, we also looked at newspaper accounts, model simulations of past weather patterns, and palaeoclimate records. </p>
<p>The agreement was remarkable. It demonstrates the value of historical records for improving our estimation of future climate change risk.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338729/original/file-20200601-78867-g4kckq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338729/original/file-20200601-78867-g4kckq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338729/original/file-20200601-78867-g4kckq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338729/original/file-20200601-78867-g4kckq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338729/original/file-20200601-78867-g4kckq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338729/original/file-20200601-78867-g4kckq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338729/original/file-20200601-78867-g4kckq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Weather journal of Adelaide’s historical climate held by the National Archives of Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Archives of Australia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Limpness to all mankind’</h2>
<p>While most other historical climate studies have looked at annual or monthly values, the new record enabled us to look at daily extremes. </p>
<p>This is important, because global temperature increases are most clearly detected in changes to extreme events such as heatwaves. Although these events may only last a few days, they have very real impacts on human health, agriculture and infrastructure.</p>
<p>Our analysis focused on the previously undescribed period before 1910, to extend the Bureau of Meteorology’s official record as far as possible. </p>
<p>Using temperature observations, we identified 34 historical heatwaves and 81 cold events in Adelaide from 1838–1910. We found more than twice as many of these “snow days” by conducting an independent analysis of snowfall accounts in historical documents.</p>
<p>Almost all the events in the temperature observations were supported by newspaper reports. This demonstrated our method can accurately identify historical temperature extremes. </p>
<p>For example, an outbreak of cold air on June 22, 1908, delivered widespread snow across the hills surrounding Adelaide. <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/208824714/22917235#">The Express and Telegraph</a> newspaper reported: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Many people made a special journey from Adelaide by train, carriage, or motor to revel in the unwonted delight of gazing on such a wide expanse of real snow, and all who did so felt that their trouble was amply rewarded by the panorama of loveliness spread out before their enraptured eyes.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337783/original/file-20200526-106866-mkst5p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337783/original/file-20200526-106866-mkst5p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337783/original/file-20200526-106866-mkst5p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337783/original/file-20200526-106866-mkst5p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337783/original/file-20200526-106866-mkst5p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337783/original/file-20200526-106866-mkst5p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337783/original/file-20200526-106866-mkst5p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Snowballing at Mount Lofty 29 August 1905.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: State Library of South Australia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>From December 26-30, 1897, Adelaide was gripped by a heatwave that produced five days above 40°C. Newspapers reported heat-related deaths, agricultural damage, animals dying in the zoo, bushfires and even “burning hot pavements scorching the soles of people’s shoes”. As <a href="https://bit.ly/36wzczi">The Advertiser</a> reported:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>When the mercury reaches its “century” (100°F or 37.6°C) there must be a really uncomfortable experience for everyone. One such day can be struggled with; but six of them in a fortnight, three in succession — that is a thing to bring limpness to all mankind. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>On December 31, 1897, the <a href="https://bit.ly/3enOrNS">South Australian Register</a> wrote prophetically of future Australian summers:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>May Heaven preserve us from being here when the “scorchers” try and add a few degrees to the total.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337800/original/file-20200527-141316-juv7cy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337800/original/file-20200527-141316-juv7cy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337800/original/file-20200527-141316-juv7cy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337800/original/file-20200527-141316-juv7cy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337800/original/file-20200527-141316-juv7cy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337800/original/file-20200527-141316-juv7cy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337800/original/file-20200527-141316-juv7cy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Newspaper account of a deadly heatwave published in the South Australian Register on Friday 31 December 1897.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Library of Australia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A longer view</h2>
<p>While Australia has a long history of hot and cold extremes, our extended analysis shows that their frequency and intensity is changing. </p>
<p>The quality of the very early part of the record is still uncertain, so the information from the 1830s and 1840s must be treated with caution. That said, there is excellent agreement with newspaper and other historical records.</p>
<p>Our research suggests low-elevation snow events around Adelaide have become less common over the past 180 years. This can be seen in both temperature observations and independent newspaper accounts. For example, snowfall was exceptionally high in the 1900s and 1910s — more than four times more frequent than other decades.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/black-skies-and-raging-seas-how-the-first-fleet-got-a-first-taste-of-australias-unforgiving-climate-94168">Black skies and raging seas: how the First Fleet got a first taste of Australia's unforgiving climate</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We also found heatwaves are becoming more frequent in Adelaide. The decade 2010–19 has the highest count of heatwaves of any decade in the record. Although recent heatwaves are not significantly longer than those of the past, our analysis showed heatwaves of up to ten days are possible.</p>
<p>Previous Australian studies have identified an increase in extreme heat and a corresponding <a href="https://theconversation.com/sure-winter-felt-chilly-but-australia-is-setting-new-heat-records-at-12-times-the-rate-of-cold-ones-35607">decrease in cold events</a>. However, this is the longest analysis in Australia, and the first to systematically combine instrumental and documentary information. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337963/original/file-20200527-20250-2av1df.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337963/original/file-20200527-20250-2av1df.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337963/original/file-20200527-20250-2av1df.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337963/original/file-20200527-20250-2av1df.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337963/original/file-20200527-20250-2av1df.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337963/original/file-20200527-20250-2av1df.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337963/original/file-20200527-20250-2av1df.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of heatwaves identified in Adelaide from January 1838 to August 2019. No digitised temperature observations are available from 1 January 1848 – 1 November 1856, so these decades are shown in lighter shades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author supplied</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338728/original/file-20200601-78845-1oycbje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338728/original/file-20200601-78845-1oycbje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338728/original/file-20200601-78845-1oycbje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338728/original/file-20200601-78845-1oycbje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338728/original/file-20200601-78845-1oycbje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338728/original/file-20200601-78845-1oycbje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338728/original/file-20200601-78845-1oycbje.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of extreme cold days identified in Adelaide from January 1838 to August 2019. No digitised temperature observations are currently available from 1 January 1848 – 1 November 1856, so these decades are shaded grey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author supplied</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Learning from the past</h2>
<p>This study shows we can use historical weather records to get a better picture of <a href="https://climatehistory.com.au">Australia’s long-term weather and climate history</a>. By using different sources of information, we can piece together the significant events in our climate history with greater certainty. </p>
<p>Historical records tell us about more than just exciting day trips of the past. They also hold the key to understanding impacts of extreme events, such as heat-related deaths or agricultural damage, in the future.</p>
<p>A better understanding of these pre-industrial extremes will help emergency management services better adapt to increased climate risk, as Australia continues to warm.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/just-how-hot-will-it-get-this-century-latest-climate-models-suggest-it-could-be-worse-than-we-thought-137281">Just how hot will it get this century? Latest climate models suggest it could be worse than we thought</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139300/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Joelle Gergis has received funding from the Australian Research Council in the past. She currently receives funding from the Australian National University and the Australian Government's Department of the Environment and Energy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linden Ashcroft has received funding from the Australian Research Council in the past. </span></em></p>Older records can tell us a lot about Australia’s pre-industrial climate, before the large-scale burning of fossil fuels tainted global temperature records.Joelle Gergis, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, Australian National UniversityLinden Ashcroft, Lecturer in climate science and science communication, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1198842020-02-20T19:01:04Z2020-02-20T19:01:04ZAustralia, we need to talk about who governs our city-states<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316056/original/file-20200219-11023-dl0k2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=862%2C0%2C5128%2C3332&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-perth-skyline-australia-scenic-793488598">Benny Marty/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1971, a Time magazine <a href="http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,905177,00.html">article</a>, titled “Should New York City Be the 51st State?”, observed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>States have not only short-changed and hamstrung their cities but are themselves the least creative and effective of the three levels of government.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Of course, the United States still doesn’t have a 51st state, but the issue of city governance remains alive and relevant to Australia. Our metropolitan cities have no metropolitan government. </p>
<p>There are state governments, which are meant to represent the whole of the state but of course are most concerned with the single biggest city (as that’s where most voters live), often neglecting the rest of the state. And there are local governments, none of which has responsibility for more than a small part of the capital city. </p>
<p>Perhaps it’s time to consider statehood for our <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3218.0">largest and fastest-growing cities</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/metropolitan-governance-is-the-missing-link-in-australias-reform-agenda-55872">Metropolitan governance is the missing link in Australia's reform agenda</a>
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</p>
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<p>Statehood has long been granted to <a href="https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/what-is-a-global-city.html">global cities</a> such as <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/note/join/2013/495864/IPOL-REGI_NT(2013)495864_EN.pdf">Berlin</a> and <a href="https://www.wien.gv.at/english/administration/organisation/authority/">Vienna</a> (in the German and Austrian federations, respectively).</p>
<p>What might not be so obvious in Australia is that all our capital cities are <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/melbourne-actually-has-its-own-flag-and-it-features-a-dead-sheep/news-story/a90267b97e4c3d50ab6069aa8e922b7a">effectively on the way to being city-states</a>. This has had huge consequences for social well-being, economic development and global competitiveness.</p>
<h2>What’s the problem?</h2>
<p>Global cities – cities with a significant role in the global economy – like <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-growing-clout-of-australia-s-twin-urban-giants-20180728-p4zu4l.html">Sydney and Melbourne are gaining more power</a>. It’s in line with a global trend of <a href="https://www.citylab.com/life/2016/10/the-seven-types-of-global-cities-brookings/502994/">social, economic, technological and political convergence</a> on cities. </p>
<p>This trend is especially obvious in Australia – about <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Interesting+Facts+about+Australia%E2%80%99s+population">90% of us</a> live in urban areas. The capital cities alone account for <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Interesting+Facts+about+Australia%E2%80%99s+population">67% of the population</a> and roughly <a href="https://www.sgsep.com.au/publications/insights/gdp-report-economic-performance-of-australias-cities-and-regions">70% of GDP</a>. Each state and territory has a lonesome metropolitan centre, surrounded by much smaller “satellites”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316055/original/file-20200219-11023-1fzz8wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316055/original/file-20200219-11023-1fzz8wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316055/original/file-20200219-11023-1fzz8wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316055/original/file-20200219-11023-1fzz8wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316055/original/file-20200219-11023-1fzz8wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316055/original/file-20200219-11023-1fzz8wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316055/original/file-20200219-11023-1fzz8wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316055/original/file-20200219-11023-1fzz8wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This NASA image of Australia at night shows the concentration of activity in the capital cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/NightLights/page3.php">NASA Earth Observatory</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sizeable political gaps have emerged between urban and rural areas. At last year’s federal election, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-capital-cities-that-ate-australia-20181226-p50o8k.html">60% of seats were in our capitals</a>. </p>
<p>The growth and changing role of metropolitan cities means we should rethink their governance structures to meet their need of a strategic vision built on <a href="https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/agglomeration-economies/">agglomeration</a>. It’s about maximising the benefits of having many producers and people located near one another.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-growing-skills-gap-between-jobs-in-australian-cities-and-the-regions-88477">The growing skills gap between jobs in Australian cities and the regions</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<p>Western Australia, for example, has one substantial city, Perth. Its other much smaller centres function mainly as satellites to the capital. </p>
<p>Perth has been ranked as one of the <a href="http://migrationcompanion.com/city-of-perth/perth-ranked-in-top-10-global-cities-of-the-future/">top ten global cities of the future</a>. Today, however, Perth is a “Beta +” city in the most recent Globalisation and Work Cities Research Network (GaWC) <a href="https://www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/world2018t.html">rankings</a>. This means it is a city that links only moderate economic regions to the world economy. </p>
<p>In comparison, California has Los Angeles (Alpha), San Diego (Gamma), San Jose (Gamma) and San Francisco (Alpha -). </p>
<p>Western Australia is therefore, relatively, a city-state. It has only one global city.</p>
<p>Of course, saying Western Australia is a city-state is rather absurd, right? By definition, a city-state is a political organisation at a microscale, like Singapore, Berlin and Vienna. <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/national-location-information/dimensions/area-of-australia-states-and-territories">Western Australia</a> has a land area about 3,500 times that of <a href="https://data.gov.sg/dataset/total-land-area-of-singapore">Singapore</a> and roughly 2,800 times the area of <a href="https://www.businesslocationcenter.de/en/business-location/berlin-at-a-glance/surface-area-of-berlin/">Berlin</a>.</p>
<p>But it’s equally absurd that vast expanses of the state have to be connected to the world economy through a lonesome Beta city. The absurdity is in the dilution of agglomeration effects, which come only from higher population density. Singapore has about <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/singapore-population/">8,000</a> people per square kilometre, Berlin almost <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/berlin-population/">4,000</a>. And Western Australia? <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/territories/western-australia-population/">One</a>. </p>
<h2>A natural evolution</h2>
<p>But hold on! Doesn’t Perth have its own government?</p>
<p>Well, no. Perth, like the other capitals, is made up of local government areas (LGAs) controlled directly by the state legislature. Perth has <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_government_areas_of_Western_Australia#Metropolitan_LGAs">30 LGAs</a>. Sydney has <a href="https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/learn/research-and-statistics/the-city-at-a-glance/our-global-city">35</a>, Melbourne <a href="https://liveinmelbourne.vic.gov.au/discover/melbourne-victoria/metropolitan-melbourne">31</a> and Adelaide <a href="http://www.rdametroadelaide.com.au/node/25">17</a>. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_government_areas_of_Tasmania#Hobart_area_councils">Hobart</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brisbane#Governance">Brisbane</a> have six LGAs each and even the smallest capital, Darwin, has <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darwin,_Northern_Territory">three</a>. The exception is Canberra, governed directly through the ACT Legislative Assembly.</p>
<p>We need to look at adding a fourth tier of government, metropolitan government, that can help harness the agglomeration effects in global cities. This <a href="https://www.foreground.com.au/politics/do-australian-cities-need-metropolitan-governments/">proposition was advanced</a> by a 2018 CSIRO book, <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/book/7726/">Australian’s Metropolitan Imperative</a> </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-cities-need-city-scale-government-heres-what-it-should-look-like-55873">Our cities need city-scale government – here's what it should look like</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But what would it do for people outside the capitals? How would the rest of Western Australia benefit from metropolitan government?</p>
<p>Lest the reader thinks I am picking on WA, I’ll elaborate my reasoning using the state where I live: Victoria. It’s not efficient for a state bigger than England (as is the case for every state and territory, except Tasmania and the ACT) to be servicing one metropolitan city.</p>
<p>Regional centres in Victoria, like Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat, service Melbourne to their disadvantage. Why to their disadvantage? Because a global city like Melbourne absorbs capital – human, physical and financial capital – from these cities. These cities will remain satellites of the global city.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/regional-cities-beware-fast-rail-might-lead-to-disadvantaged-dormitories-not-booming-economies-119090">Regional cities beware – fast rail might lead to disadvantaged dormitories, not booming economies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Think of the territorial evolution of Australia. Had Victoria not split from New South Wales in 1851, how likely is it that Melbourne would be a global city today? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314342/original/file-20200209-27524-1iavqzl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314342/original/file-20200209-27524-1iavqzl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314342/original/file-20200209-27524-1iavqzl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314342/original/file-20200209-27524-1iavqzl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314342/original/file-20200209-27524-1iavqzl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=671&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314342/original/file-20200209-27524-1iavqzl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314342/original/file-20200209-27524-1iavqzl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314342/original/file-20200209-27524-1iavqzl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The evolution of the states in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://sites.google.com/site/australiancolonisation241992/colonies-to-states">Australian Colonisation.1788</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To help the rest of Australia grow, the territorial evolution that started in the 19th century, and was interrupted in the 20th century, has to continue in the 21st century.</p>
<p>Note that this is an evolutionary argument. Over time, we expect more Australian cities to reach the level of population density and economic growth that would require statehood. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-patchwork-of-city-deals-or-a-national-settlement-strategy-whats-best-for-our-growing-cities-117839">A patchwork of City Deals or a national settlement strategy: what’s best for our growing cities?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In 2013, demographer <a href="https://successnq.com.au/2018/07/31/worth-his-salt/">Bernard Salt</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130820130025/http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2013/07/11/385273_news.html">predicted</a> Townsville would become a metropolitan city by 2026, with more people living in north Queensland than in the state of Tasmania. North Queensland statehood would only help this evolution, just as it helped Brisbane in the 1800s.</p>
<p>In 1949, David Henry Drummond, who served in the House of Representatives and in the NSW Legislative Assembly, <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/2358768">noted</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is significant that since the Imperial Parliament handed over the control of Australia to the Commonwealth, no new State has been created, notwithstanding that Sir Henry Parkes, the founder of the Federation, said – ‘that as a matter of reason and logical forecast, the division of the existing colonies into smaller areas to equalise the distribution of political power, will be the next great constitutional change’.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The imperative for the Commonwealth is to pursue this “great constitutional change”. At the very least, it’s time to have a healthy national conversation about how we can boost our capital cities’ global status through a new drive for statehood.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119884/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamen Franklen Gussen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The rise of global cities, metropolises that dominate their states, is exposing Australia’s lack of metropolitan governments. It’s time to restart the evolution of our states after a century on hold.Benjamen Franklen Gussen, Lecturer in Law, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1279092019-11-27T18:42:44Z2019-11-27T18:42:44ZHow drought is affecting water supply in Australia’s capital cities<p>The level of water stored by Australia’s capital cities has steadily fallen over the last six years. They are now collectively at 54.6% of capacity – a decline of 30% from 2013. </p>
<p>We’re going into a hot summer and Sydney has just announced <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/news-and-events/news/level-2-water-restrictions-to-start-across-sydney/">level 2 restrictions</a>, the toughest for any capital. Data from the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/water/dashboards/#/water-storages/summary/urban?location=Canberra">Bureau of Meteorology</a> shows other capital cities facing mixed results.</p>
<p>The results show that Darwin’s water supply has lost about 25% over the last year. On the plus side, Melbourne’s supply actually increased over 2019, having fallen below 50% earlier this year, and now sits on 63.9%.</p>
<iframe title="Total water storage of Australia's capital cities" aria-label="Interactive line chart" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NjYpn/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>While the national average is trending downwards, the patterns for each city are very different. Sydney and Perth water supplies have had contrasting journeys over the last six years. In October 2013 Perth’s supply was a very low 33.8% and Sydney was a comfortable 91%.</p>
<iframe title="Perth and Sydney water storage, 2013-2019" aria-label="Interactive line chart" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jRo4d/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Now, for the first time in many years Perth does not have Australia’s lowest level of all capital city water storages. As of last week, Sydney has taken this unwanted distinction from Perth. </p>
<p>For Perth residents, the news is good as their surface water storages are at a six-year high of 46.4%. In Sydney they are worried, as they have a six-year low of 46.2%. </p>
<p>Sydney has experienced a steep decline over the last 30 months, from nearly full storages (96%) in April 2017. The speed and severity of the Sydney drought is starting to resemble previous dry spells. One was in the 1940s and the other was the Millennium drought. </p>
<p>Perth has lived with the most water stress of any capital city. They have had to contend with a steady 45-year decline in rain. The inflow of water into Perth’s dams has also <a href="https://www.watercorporation.com.au/water-supply/our-water-sources/securing-perth-supply">fallen dramatically</a>.</p>
<p>Perth has adapted to its drying climate by sourcing water from <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-perth-really-running-out-of-water-well-yes-and-no-90857">many different supplies</a>. It now uses its surface water storages for about 10% of its water supply. Much larger proportions of Perth’s supply comes from its two desalination plants, which unlike the other capitals are constantly in operation. It makes greater use of groundwater and highly treated recycled water. Perth also has permanent water restrictions.</p>
<p>Sydney’s desalination plant, after hibernating for 7 years, is now supplying water. It was switched on in late January 2019 when Sydney supply hit 60%, and can supply 15% of water demand. Unusually perhaps, the desalinated water does not reach all parts of Sydney.</p>
<p>Sydney Water has announced plans to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/26/sydney-desalination-plant-to-double-in-size-as-dams-approach-critical-level">double the capacity</a> of the desalination plant. Construction is expected to <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/-/media/Files/DPE/Other/About-us/Metropolitan-Water/2017-Metropolitan-Water-Plan.pdf">begin soon</a>.</p>
<iframe title="Melbourne and Brisbane water storage, 2013-2019" aria-label="Interactive line chart" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/glQxq/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Melbourne and Brisbane water supplies are currently at similar levels. However, since 2013 Melbourne’s storages have generally been lower than Brisbane’s. Melbourne’s supply has risen in 2019 after good winter rainfall in its catchments. The storages have increased from under 50% (49.6%) in late May 2019. Today, Brisbane storage levels are now at 59.2%.</p>
<p>Melbourne residents use <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-sydney-residents-use-30-more-water-per-day-than-melburnians-117656">less water</a> than the other capital cities. In 2018 the average Melbourne resident used 161 litres per day, approximately 30% less than Sydney residents. </p>
<p>Melbourne’s supplies have also been supplemented with the reactivation of its Wonthaggi desalination plant in 2019. It is Australia’s largest desalination plant, capable of producing <a href="https://www.water.vic.gov.au/media-releases/2019/desalinated-water-begins-flowing-to-secure-supplies">410 million litres a day</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-sydney-residents-use-30-more-water-per-day-than-melburnians-117656">Why Sydney residents use 30% more water per day than Melburnians</a>
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<p>Brisbane also built a desalination plant after the Millennium Drought. In addition, they also made very large investments in Australia’s largest waste water recycling scheme. The <a href="https://www.seqwater.com.au/seq-water-grid">Western Corridor recycled water scheme</a> opened in 2008, cost $2.5 billion and features three advanced waste water treatment plants, with more than 200 km of pipelines and three advanced waste water treatment plants.</p>
<iframe title="Hobart, Darwin and Canberra water storage, 2013-2019" aria-label="Interactive line chart" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iI7HJ/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Hobart, Darwin and Canberra are the three Australian capital cities without desalination plants. Canberra has had a steady decline in its supply over three years. It was full in October 2016, gradually dropping to 51.6% in November 2019. Hobart’s storages were above 80% for most of the last six years. They were just above 90% 12 months ago and have since fallen to their current level of 72%.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fish-kills-and-undrinkable-water-heres-what-to-expect-for-the-murray-darling-this-summer-126940">Fish kills and undrinkable water: here's what to expect for the Murray Darling this summer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Darwin’s water supply was full as recently as April 2018. Now, 18 months later, it is just touching 54%. This is its lowest level in six years. Darwin, our tropical capital, has the most seasonal rainfall of Australia’s capitals. Typically, they have almost no rain June to September during their dry season, and a wet season of <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-australian-monsoon-69411">heavy rains from October to April</a>.
However, the last wet season was one of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-14/revisiting-the-1952-northern-territory-missing-wet-season/10883534">driest on record</a>.</p>
<iframe title="Adelaide water storage" aria-label="Interactive line chart" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0MdtJ/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Adelaide’s water storage has fluctuated over the last 6 years. Adelaide gets more rain in winter and has dry summers, an opposite pattern to that of Darwin. Over the last 3 years the level has dropped from over 97% in October 2017 to just below 58%. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/up-the-creek-the-85-million-plan-to-desalinate-water-for-drought-relief-126681">Up the creek: the $85 million plan to desalinate water for drought relief</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The desalination plant in Adelaide can supply up to 50% of its water supply. It has been operating in 2019, although not in the wetter months of July and August. The Murray also continues to supply a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-14/adelaide-desal-plant-revival-plan-to-ease-use-of-murray-water/10619960">large proportion</a> of Adelaide’s water supply. The Commonwealth has agreed to use drought funding for the Adelaide desalination plant, so more river water can be used by farmers upstream to <a href="https://watersource.awa.asn.au/business/assets-and-operations/sa-desal-plant-to-increase-production-as-part-of-drought-deal/">grow fodder for livestock</a>. </p>
<p>Australia is set for a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary">dryer and hotter summer than average</a>, particularly in the east. Coupled with continued high levels of household demand, we can expect further declines in water storage levels through the first half of 2020.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127909/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s capital cities have collectively lost 30% of their stored water over the last six years. But this loss is not evenly distributed across the country.Ian A. Wright, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Science, Western Sydney UniversityJason Reynolds, Research Lecturer in Geochemistry, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1266812019-11-13T19:06:20Z2019-11-13T19:06:20ZUp the creek: the $85 million plan to desalinate water for drought relief<p>The deal to crank up Adelaide’s desalination plant to make more water available to farmers in the drought-stricken Murray-Darling Basin makes no sense.</p>
<p>It involves the federal government paying the South Australian government up to A$100 million to produce more water for Adelaide using the little-used desalination plant.</p>
<p>The plant was commissioned in 2007 at the height of the millennium drought. It can produce up to 100 gigalitres of water a year – enough to fill 40,000 olympic sized swimming pools. But has been used sparingly, operating at its minimum mode of
8 gigalitres a year, because of the expense of turning seawater into freshwater. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301170/original/file-20191112-178480-f1d1j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301170/original/file-20191112-178480-f1d1j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301170/original/file-20191112-178480-f1d1j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301170/original/file-20191112-178480-f1d1j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301170/original/file-20191112-178480-f1d1j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301170/original/file-20191112-178480-f1d1j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301170/original/file-20191112-178480-f1d1j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301170/original/file-20191112-178480-f1d1j4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Adelaide Desalination Plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11202753">Vmenkov/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Adelaide has continued to mostly draw water from local reservoirs and the River Murray, which on average has supplied about half the city’s water (sometimes much more). </p>
<p>But with federal funding, the desal plant will be turned on full bore. This will free up 100 gigalitres of water from the Murray River allocated to Adelaide for use by farmers upstream in the Murray Darling’s southern basin. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301212/original/file-20191112-178525-auvb3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301212/original/file-20191112-178525-auvb3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301212/original/file-20191112-178525-auvb3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301212/original/file-20191112-178525-auvb3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301212/original/file-20191112-178525-auvb3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301212/original/file-20191112-178525-auvb3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301212/original/file-20191112-178525-auvb3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301212/original/file-20191112-178525-auvb3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The southern Murray–Darling Basin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/water/aust-water-markets-reports/awmr-2015-16/southern-murray-darling-basin#region-overview">ABARES</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The federal government expects the water to be used to grow an extra <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-07/how-will-the-sa-desal-plant-revival-help-australian-farmers/11682044">120,000 tonnes of fodder</a> for livestock. The water will be sold to farmers at a discount rate of A$100 a megalitre. That’s 10 cents per 1,000 litres. </p>
<p>By comparison, the residential price for that <a href="https://www.sawater.com.au/accounts-and-billing/current-water-and-sewerage-rates/residential-water-supply">water in Adelaide</a> would be A$2.39 to A$3.70 per 1,000 litres. </p>
<p>The production cost of desalinated water is about <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/water/resources/desalination">95 cents per 1,000 litres</a> when there’s rainwater already stored, according to a cost-benefit study published by the SA Department of Environment and Water in 2016. That means the total cost for the 100 gigalitres will be about A$95 million. </p>
<p>So the federal government is effectively paying A$95 million to sell water for A$10 million: a loss to taxpayers of A$85 million.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301431/original/file-20191113-77363-3vm9vd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301431/original/file-20191113-77363-3vm9vd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301431/original/file-20191113-77363-3vm9vd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301431/original/file-20191113-77363-3vm9vd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=679&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301431/original/file-20191113-77363-3vm9vd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301431/original/file-20191113-77363-3vm9vd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301431/original/file-20191113-77363-3vm9vd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What do we get for the money?</h2>
<p>The discounted water provided to individual farmers will be capped at <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-07/drought-stimulus-sa-desalination-plant-murray-river-water-farms/11679136">no more than 25 megalitres</a>. The farmers must agree to not sell the water to others and to use it to grow fodder for livestock.</p>
<p>There are many different forms of fodder but livestock producers most favour lucerne hay because it is highly nutritious. But it is also more expensive than cereal, pasture or straw hay. </p>
<p>The amount of hay that can be grown with a megalitre of irrigation water depends on many things, but 120,000 tonnes with 100 gigalitres is possible in the right conditions.</p>
<p>In the Murray-Darling southern basin lucerne hay currently sells for <a href="https://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/industry/farm-inputs-and-costs/hay-report">A$450 to A$600 a tonne</a>. That would make the market value of 120,000 tonnes of lucerne A$54 million to A$72 million. </p>
<p>It means, on a best-case scenario, the federal government will be spending A$85 million to subsidise the production of hay worth A$72 million to its producers. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-drought-relief-package-hits-the-political-spot-but-misses-the-bigger-point-126583">Australia's drought relief package hits the political spot but misses the bigger point</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The reality of farming</h2>
<p>In practice farms and farmers are incredible diverse, so not all irrigators will necessarily grow lucerne. Alternative fodders such as pasture or cereal hay generally have much lower market values. Which meaning the value of the fodder produced may be much less than the best-case scenario.</p>
<p>It’s worrying that this policy shows such little regard for farming realities. It appears to have been crafted on the premise that every farmer has the same land, the same equipment and the same needs. </p>
<p>Dictating the water must be used for a single purpose runs counter to the needs of the agriculture sector. If farmers could put it to a more effective use, why not allow it?</p>
<p>In addition, it’s not clear how all the monitoring will be done to maintain compliance over such a restrictive regime. </p>
<p>What measures will prevent farmers buying the discounted water and then simply selling an equivalent amount of any carry-over allocation at the going rate of up to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/water/dashboards/#/water-markets/national/state/at">$1,000 a megalitre</a>? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-are-driving-high-water-prices-in-the-murray-darling-basin-119993">Drought and climate change are driving high water prices in the Murray-Darling Basin</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>How will the government distinguish between the fodder grown with the 25 megalitres provided at low cost and any other fodder harvested on the same farm? How much will it cost to monitor and enforce such arrangements? </p>
<p>The difficulty of answering these types of questions is precisely the reason why countries in the former eastern bloc failed to adequately provide for their populations. Telling people what crop to grow, when to grow, how to water the crop and how it should be consumed has not worked in the past. Farm businesses that respond to prices and use inputs, including water, in a way that suits their long- term commercial needs are generally better off. </p>
<p>It seems a long way from the type of national drought policy Australia needs. It’s hard to see how a policy of this kind does anything other than waste a large amount of public money and disrupt important market mechanisms in agriculture in the process.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126681/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lin Crase receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research. </span></em></p>The Australian government is effectively spending A$95 million so it can sell water to farmers for A$10 million.Lin Crase, Professor of Economics and Head of School, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1258742019-11-03T18:54:58Z2019-11-03T18:54:58ZHow we feel about our cars means the road to a driverless future may not be smooth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299369/original/file-20191030-138168-hq8p3r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Car owners' attachment to driving and the willingness of others to switch from public transport could confound rosy predictions for autonomous vehicles.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/adelaide-south-australia-july-27-2019-1466462240?src=srX7g0tCsTO2lfuw4YzG9Q-1-15">Steven Giles/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a reasonable expectation that autonomous vehicles will dominate the future of transport. Utopian visions suggest these driverless vehicles will lead to dramatic changes to our cities and their transportation. </p>
<p>Autonomous vehicles operating on a network would allow traffic to move safely and seamlessly through cities. They would use less space per vehicle. Traffic flow would be unhindered by traffic lights or other traditional driver signals. </p>
<p>More efficient transportation would use less fuel. Urban spaces could be repurposed as parking needs virtually disappear.</p>
<p>But this utopian vision depends on a range of factors. In particular, these predictions largely rely on how current car drivers respond to the advent of autonomous vehicles. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Our research</a> suggests people’s attitudes to driving and their cars could limit the predicted benefits to traffic flow and city efficiency, at least during the initial transition to driverless vehicles. </p>
<h2>What did the research look at?</h2>
<p>The research uses the city of Adelaide as a test case. We surveyed commuter preferences for the acceptance and use of driverless vehicles, as compared with their current preferences. </p>
<p>We then developed two scenarios. One is for the medium to long term, when vehicles are fully autonomous. The other is for the short-term transitional phase, during which a mix of conventional and driverless vehicles share the roads. </p>
<p>Using traffic-flow data for Adelaide, we analysed the implications of a shift towards driverless vehicles for: </p>
<ul>
<li>traffic flow</li>
<li>the number of vehicles needed to service commuter demands</li>
<li>parking</li>
<li>broader land use in the city centre.</li>
</ul>
<p>Adelaide is unusual, as a result of its <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/18907622?q&versionId=45120027">history as a planned city</a>, in having a discrete number of entry and exit points. This allows us to map more accurately average daily traffic flows into and out of the city centre. </p>
<p>Our analysis focuses on three of the city’s gateways, as shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=664&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298688/original/file-20191025-173533-1630e0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=834&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The three Adelaide city gateways analysed for the research.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We measured flows through these intersections on a typical day. Using minute-by-minute real-time data, monitored at traffic signals, we created a picture of typical traffic flows into and out of the CBD. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299103/original/file-20191029-183147-k1m5dy.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic flows at gateway site into and out of Adelaide city (Unley Rd/South Terrace).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adelaide City Council</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also surveyed commuters to discern their current transport preferences versus their perceptions of the hypothetical future. </p>
<p>Combining this information, we then describe possible outcomes of the transition to automated vehicles.</p>
<h2>What did the survey find?</h2>
<p>Below is a summary of the survey of a representative sample of 526 regular commuters into the Adelaide CBD.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299129/original/file-20191029-183098-dm4vj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Data: How Might Autonomous Vehicles Impact the City?</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We queried respondents’ willingness to carshare by taking advantage of common knowledge of real-world company Uber. </p>
<p>We also investigated respondents’ attitudes by positing a scenario in which driverless vehicles are the norm and conventional driving is a luxury. We assessed likely resistance to autonomous vehicles by considering their willingness to pay to continue to drive traditional vehicles in this scenario. </p>
<p>Key results are shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299132/original/file-20191029-183103-vr0itp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08111146.2019.1674646?needAccess=true">Data: How Might Autonomous Vehicles Impact the City?</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Attitudes and costs will shape transition</h2>
<p>Two observations flow from the responses. </p>
<p>First, it seems likely drivers’ prevailing attitudes to vehicle ownership may be influencing their attitudes to autonomous vehicles. For many, their car represents a status symbol. They feel a strong personal attachment to it.</p>
<p>Second, cost may be a crucial factor in take-up of driverless vehicles. As costs fall, most commuters might bow to financial pressure to shift to autonomous vehicles. However, a minority might lobby to keep a mix of driverless and conventional vehicles on the road.</p>
<p>Our analysis suggests Adelaide could reduce its current vehicle fleet by as much as 76% in the utopian driverless future. This is due to current high car dependence and long commuting times and distances at peak periods. </p>
<p>Yet some predicted benefits, notably the very large reduction in vehicle numbers and better traffic flows, might not be achieved in the near to medium term. This is due to uncertainty about how the transition to a totally driverless city will be achieved and how long it will take. </p>
<p>Key factors are commuter attitudes to driving and autonomous vehicles, the price of the technology, and consumer attitudes to car sharing. Attitudes to car ownership and driving appear to be central to how the transition will play out. </p>
<p>The survey suggests the pleasure of driving themselves, which a substantial minority of Adelaide drivers are unwilling to forgo, could limit the benefits that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2018.1466835">much of the academic literature</a> optimistically predicts. </p>
<p>Public transport may also be adversely affected as riders switch to driverlesss vehicles. This shift could increase vehicle flows in peak periods, making congestion worse during the transition to complete adoption. </p>
<p>We support the <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-vehicles-could-bring-out-the-best-or-worst-in-our-cities-by-transforming-land-use-84127">oft-suggested</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/utopia-or-nightmare-the-answer-lies-in-how-we-embrace-self-driving-electric-and-shared-vehicles-90920">argument</a> that large-scale adoption of driverless vehicles risks stimulating an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-driverless-vehicles-should-not-be-given-unchecked-access-to-our-cities-102724">increase in urban sprawl</a>. In the city centre, parking demand is likely to reduce greatly, allowing more diverse land uses and intensification of economic activity. But parking outside the CBD might increase, as driverless vehicles need not park near their users’ or owners’ workplace, at the expense of amenity. </p>
<p>Our analysis strongly suggests urban policy will be needed to counter the potential negative effects of introducing driverless vehicles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raul A. Barreto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scenarios based on a survey of Adelaide commuters and analyses of traffic flows show it’s possible the congestion could get worse in the transition to driverless vehicles.Raul A. Barreto, Senior Lecturer, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1034412018-09-23T20:10:08Z2018-09-23T20:10:08ZCuts and restructures send alarm through South Australia’s arts sector<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237400/original/file-20180921-129862-1a6kkfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Adelaide has been known as the 'Athens of the South', but there are concerns about the current state of arts governance in South Australia. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">brotherlywalks/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Australia’s Liberal government, elected in March 2018 after 16 years of Labor rule, has alarmed the state’s arts industry with major changes to the way the arts are structured and funded in South Australia.</p>
<p>The key structural change is that <a href="https://arts.sa.gov.au/">Arts SA</a>, the body that administered, funded and advised about the arts, has been essentially <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/notes-on-adelaide/2018/08/22/is-arts-sa-losing-status-dpcs-acting-acting-ceo-duttons-spinner-in-sa/">downgraded to the role of a policy adviser</a>. As part of the change, the head of Arts SA (a Labor government appointee) was dismissed. </p>
<p>In the recent state budget, the government announced <a href="https://cdn.service.sa.gov.au/statebudget/201819/marshall_funding_boost_for_artists.pdf?q=343995">cuts totalling $31.9 million</a> over the next four years, including $18.5 million from organisations and programs and $13.4 million from Arts SA. </p>
<p>In July, the responsibility for several arts organisations was also given to <a href="https://www.saliberal.org.au/arts_changes_to_better_support_job_creation">other government departments</a>. Various youth arts organisations, including theatre companies, are now under the Department of Education. Other organisations such as the South Australian Film Corporation, the Adelaide Film Festival and the Jam Factory are now the responsibility of the Department of Industry and Skills Development. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-bulldust-benchmarks-and-numbers-what-matters-in-australian-culture-101459">Beyond bulldust, benchmarks and numbers: what matters in Australian culture</a>
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<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>The arts have long been championed in SA, but in recent years the sector has started to stagnate. For several decades from the 1970s, Adelaide wore the mantle of the “Athens of the South”. The Adelaide Festival was regarded as the major arts festival in the Southern Hemisphere and the state led the way in establishing arts infrastructure as an essential part of government. </p>
<p>The arts in South Australia continued to enjoy bipartisan support for the next 20 or so years. The arts were usually under the control of the premier and led by a senior public servant, Len Amadio.</p>
<p>Changes began in the early 1990s. Premier John Bannon divested the arts from his own portfolio and from then on the arts were usually part of another minister’s portfolio. Gradually the arts fell down the political status pole and experienced both cuts and/or benign neglect. </p>
<p>Over the decade from 2008 to 2018 there was a perception that the arts had lost their political capital in the context of the state. Aside from the main arts festivals and the major cultural institutions such as the Adelaide Festival Centre Trust, other arts activities and organisations were generally ignored. </p>
<h2>Worrying signs</h2>
<p>In the lead-up to the state election, the Liberal Party promised that a Liberal government would develop a <a href="https://strongplan.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/138-INVESTING-IN-THE-ARTS.pdf">state arts plan</a> as well as establish the position of a commissioner for cultural development. But the recent funding cuts and restructures suggest that, as the <a href="https://aicsa.net.au/">SA Arts Industry Council</a> has said, the government is not listening to the arts community nor taking it seriously. </p>
<p>The Liberal Party also announced a vision for a <a href="https://www.saliberal.org.au/national_aboriginal_art_and_culture_gallery">National Aboriginal Arts and Cultural Gallery</a> housing both contemporary Aboriginal art and traditional artefacts, instead of a new Contemporary Art Gallery at the old hospital site. This has been confirmed by <a href="https://architectureau.com/articles/sa-budget-sets-out-plans-for-old-royal-adelaide-hospital-site-sans-adelaide-contemporary/">$60 million</a> committed in the budget. </p>
<p>While a National Aboriginal Gallery is a welcome idea, it seems there was limited consultation about the proposal with either the Aboriginal community or the arts community. The announcement also appears to abandon the concept of a new contemporary art gallery as hoped for by the Art Gallery of South Australia. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-support-for-arts-funding-declining-australia-must-get-better-at-valuing-culture-95057">With support for arts funding declining, Australia must get better at valuing culture</a>
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<p>The small to medium arts sector in South Australia was damaged by the changes in 2014-16 introduced by George Brandis, then federal arts minister. The impact of this period is still being felt by many. While other states have been consolidating and strengthening their arts and creative sector (such as Creative Victoria and Create New South Wales), the South Australian government appears to be in a process of deconstruction.</p>
<p>Many questions are now being raised about the relationship between the state Liberal government and the arts sector, particularly how the complexity of the arts will be understood and represented to government. </p>
<p>Arts SA’s function and effectiveness may have seemed to suffer from organisational paralysis and lack of effective strategic leadership for a long time. In addition, it could be said that the arts sector has suffered under a cloud of benign political neglect for several years. </p>
<p>Perhaps the changes that are occurring are a way to move the sector forward to another model of administration and structural framing that is not wholly dependent on economic outcomes. This could be a positive move, but at present there is no sign that the new government is moving towards another model. For example, while there is talk of an arts plan, no plan is seemingly in development. Meanwhile the cuts to the sector over the next four years are likely to inflict a great deal of damage on an already vulnerable sector.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103441/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Caust has previously received funding from Arts SA. She is a member of the Arts Industry Council (SA) and NAVA. She is Director of JoCaustArts, an arts based consulting company.</span></em></p>The arts have long been championed in SA, but in recent years the sector has started to stagnate.Jo Caust, Associate Professor and Principal Fellow (Hon), The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1009502018-08-14T20:32:57Z2018-08-14T20:32:57ZMelbourne and Adelaide have been Australia’s most vulnerable major cities to killer heatwaves<p>Melbourne and Adelaide have been most prone to deadly heatwave conditions among Australia’s five largest cities, according to my new research published in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2269-0">Climatic Change</a>.</p>
<p>My study shows that between 2001 and 2015, Melbourne and Adelaide suffered the most exposure to temperatures beyond a crucial threshold of 7.26°C above the 30-day average. Above this threshold, deaths are more likely because people are not acclimatised to the extreme weather. </p>
<p>I estimated that there were 151 deaths in Melbourne and 144 in Adelaide due to extreme heatwaves - those above this 7.26°C threshold - between 2001 and 2015.</p>
<p>Heatwaves can cause significant numbers of deaths, especially among vulnerable groups of people who are not prepared for or acclimatised to extreme hot temperatures. </p>
<p>Even though Melbourne and Adelaide are located in more temperate areas (in comparison with more northerly cities such as Brisbane), they have been periodically hit by severe heatwaves.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weve-learned-a-lot-about-heatwaves-but-were-still-just-warming-up-68174">We've learned a lot about heatwaves, but we're still just warming up</a>
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<p>In my research, I looked at a “Excess Heat Index”, a measure used by the Bureau of Meteorology as part of its <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/about.shtml">heatwave forecasts</a>. The measure that I used is the difference between the 3-day average temperature and the 30-day average, and is therefore a measure of how “unusually hot” it is during a heatwave. It captures how much residents are likely to struggle to cope with the heat.</p>
<p>The graphs below show the frequency of excessively hot or cold weather for each of Australia’s major cities from 2001 to 2015. These charts show that most days had temperatures where the 3-day average was 2°C higher or lower than the 30-day average. </p>
<p>A grey dashed line shows the extreme heat threshold that my study found was associated with higher deaths, relative to moderately warm and cool days.
I then estimated the threshold at which there is a significantly increased risk of deaths. </p>
<p>The death rate (per 100,000 people) that coincides with the extreme heat acclimatisation measure is shown as a black line on each of the graphs. This is an average impact of temperature on death rates, adjusted for different cities’ population sizes and baseline death rates.</p>
<p>Between 2001 and 2015, most of the events above the 7.26°C extreme heat threshold occurred in Adelaide, Melbourne and Perth. Brisbane and Sydney had fewer days above this threshold.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230324/original/file-20180802-136673-gj66go.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230324/original/file-20180802-136673-gj66go.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230324/original/file-20180802-136673-gj66go.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230324/original/file-20180802-136673-gj66go.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230324/original/file-20180802-136673-gj66go.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230324/original/file-20180802-136673-gj66go.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230324/original/file-20180802-136673-gj66go.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230324/original/file-20180802-136673-gj66go.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230325/original/file-20180802-136670-r1mg15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230325/original/file-20180802-136670-r1mg15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230325/original/file-20180802-136670-r1mg15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230325/original/file-20180802-136670-r1mg15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230325/original/file-20180802-136670-r1mg15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230325/original/file-20180802-136670-r1mg15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230325/original/file-20180802-136670-r1mg15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230325/original/file-20180802-136670-r1mg15.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 1 – Histograms of the Excess Heat Index for major Australian cities between 2001 and 2015.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The importance of acclimatisation</h2>
<p>Several previous studies have linked excessive heat to adverse events such as deaths (see <a href="https://www.jflmjournal.org/article/S1752-928X(12)00267-3/fulltext">here</a>, <a href="http://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_060.pdf">here</a> and <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/1/227">here</a>), and emergency department visits and ambulance call-outs (see <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26260877">here</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10393-015-1085-5">here</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28321590">here</a>). But my study is the first to solely focus on the extreme heat index acclimatisation measure, and to identify a temperature threshold in this way. This measure is important, as it identifies the times when residents of cities with different background climates begin to struggle with the heat. </p>
<p>The Bureau of Meteorology does not currently use the 7.26°C threshold identified in my paper. Doing so may improve predictions of which heatwaves are most likely to turn deadly for significant numbers of people living in our major cities. </p>
<h2>Implications for policy</h2>
<p>Since the severe heatwaves of 2009, many states and territories have implemented or revised their heatwave response plans, or conducted awareness campaigns to educate people about the health risks. But more can be done to make vulnerable people aware of upcoming heatwave events.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27788557">2016 review</a> proposed that heatwave response plans and early warning systems should be evaluated and updated at least every five years, to ensure that they remain effective, and to incorporate up-to-date knowledge about population-level vulnerability to heat stress.</p>
<p>While my research has focused on Australia’s five largest cities, this does not mean that extreme heat is any less dangerous in other areas. Nor is the danger limited to prolonged heatwaves – individual hot days can catch people out too. A <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20464412">NSW study</a> found that emergency hospital admissions due to dehydration and other heat-related injuries rose significantly on individual hot days, as well as during hot spells lasting at least three days. </p>
<p>This suggests that we need to develop more complex heat risk management plans, with targeted responses for different health issues based on the longevity of extreme heat events.</p>
<h2>Implications for the future</h2>
<p>We also need to consider the patterns of extremely hot temperatures that we are likely to encounter in the future. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209471730169X">Recent research</a> found that changes in the frequency and duration of heatwaves will be larger in the north of Australia than the south. But the same study also found that “heatwave amplitude” – the intensity of the hottest day of the hottest heatwave – will increase more in southern parts of Australia.</p>
<p>This research suggests that cities south of Brisbane will experience the most severe temperature spikes beyond what their residents are used to dealing with.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100950/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Longden receives funding from Sustainability Victoria, the Independent Hospital Pricing Authority, the Commonwealth Fund, the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation and the Commonwealth Department of Health. </span></em></p>Heatwaves can cause a large number of deaths, especially when vulnerable groups are unprepared and are not acclimatised to hot temperatures.Thomas Longden, Senior Research Fellow, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1011802018-08-07T19:42:53Z2018-08-07T19:42:53ZMaking small cities bigger will help better distribute Australia’s 25 million people<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230873/original/file-20180807-191041-1dt72rs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The bigger Melbourne gets, the more attractive it becomes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The knowledge economy has concentrated skilled people in large cities such as Melbourne. This has meant such cities take most of Australia’s jobs, leading to what has been dubbed “agglomeration economies” – where knowledge and production flow easily between firms and people as they cluster near one another. </p>
<p>Australia’s population clock ticked over to 25 million last night, and it’s easy to see why most of this number are living in the bigger cities. Of course, the bigger cities are also more attractive, and the cycle continues. They keep growing at the expense of smaller regional cities. </p>
<p>For a long time now, there have been calls for a national <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/7874">policy to ensure</a> a <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-big-cities-are-engines-of-inequality-so-how-do-we-fix-that-69775">more equitable distribution</a> of the population across cities of all sizes. Governments can take some lessons from policies in Australia’s recent history, as well as those of other countries, that have aimed to address similar issues.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/aim-for-cities-of-all-sizes-to-give-everyone-a-fair-go-94657">Aim for cities of all sizes to give everyone a fair go</a>
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<h2>Australia’s past attempts</h2>
<p>In the 1950s and ‘60s, Sydney’s congestion and pollution problems caused the state government to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8330.1981.tb00004.x">implement a decentralisation program</a>. Under this policy, manufacturing companies were given financial incentives to set up in country towns. The program achieved fairly modest success but came to an end in the early '70s. This was when tariff walls fell and the local manufacturing sector succumbed to competition from East Asian production. </p>
<p>The Whitlam <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8330.1981.tb00004.x">government implemented a cities program</a> in 1973 to entice people out of the bigger cities. The program allocated funds to develop new cities with 100,000 to 250,000 people such as Albury-Wodonga. Research at the time had indicated this was the <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/14126500?q&versionId=16690100">optimum population size</a> for a city.</p>
<p>This program was axed by the Fraser government, which saw the land and infrastructure developments in the smaller cities as too costly. And there were no compensatory new jobs – especially in manufacturing. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230884/original/file-20180807-138709-1qdtlnu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Whitlam government had a policy for cities such as Albury to house over 100,000 people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Smaller cities need to be decently sized if they’re to provide a level of services and jobs with which to attract people from the larger cities. This is reflected in Victoria’s <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/policy-and-strategy/planning-for-melbourne/melbourne-2030-planning-for-sustainable-growth">current 30 year development strategy</a>, which promotes the growth of Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo through good rail services to Melbourne, as well as relocation of state government functions. </p>
<p>Each of these cities has a big enough size (approaching 100,000 or beyond) to support an attractive level of services. And they’re also close enough to Melbourne to allow commuting as a supplement to local jobs. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-many-people-make-a-good-city-its-not-the-size-that-matters-but-how-you-use-it-101102">How many people make a good city? It's not the size that matters, but how you use it</a>
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<hr>
<p>Metropolitan growth is outsourced to large, nearby urban areas in other states. Cities such as Wollongong, NSW and the Gold Coast, QLD take some of Sydney and Brisbane’s spillover. This could be extended to Newcastle and the Sunshine Coast with better rail connections. </p>
<p>But such rail services require significant government subsidies, even though they offset congestion costs in the major cities. And it’s not the whole answer. Even the favourable geography of Victoria’s provincial cities has by no means reduced Melbourne’s growth problems. </p>
<p>So, where do we go from here?</p>
<h2>What other countries are doing</h2>
<p>Globally, policies aiming to reduce the dominance and growth of major cities have focused on building large city alternatives. One policy available to every country is to relocate its national capital when it has become too big. </p>
<p>In the mid-20th century, both <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bras%C3%ADlia">Brazil</a> and Tanzania followed Turkey and relocated their capital cities inland to reduce the dominance of the major coastal cities. More recently, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abuja">Nigeria</a> and Kazakhstan have both established new capital cities in the centre of the country to draw growth from the previous capitals.</p>
<p>Brasilia and Ankara have developed into major metropolitan areas in their own right, though this has not yet happened in the other new capitals.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230887/original/file-20180807-7141-1r3hk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Under the Northern Powerhouse plan, cities like Sheffield would be stimulated by new transport connections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The UK and France are both attempting to create large metropolitan areas in the regions as counterweights to London and Paris. In the UK, regional development policies in the 1960s and 70s, including relocation of offices from London, failed to stem the capital’s economic dominance. </p>
<p>The latest attempt is the Tories’ policy, known the <a href="https://northernpowerhouse.gov.uk/">Northern Powerhouse</a>. This is conceived as a collection of northern English cities, from Liverpool to Leeds and Sheffield, that would be stimulated by new transport connections, reallocation of science funding, devolution of central government, and arts and culture projects. But this <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/01/tories-northern-powerhouse-transport-system-cities-george-osborne">has been critised</a> as geographically fuzzy, insufficiently funded and generally a “mess”.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-northern-powerhouse-needs-to-be-more-than-a-slogan-59043">The Northern Powerhouse needs to be more than a slogan</a>
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<p>France has taken a <a href="http://www.oecd.org/cfe/regional-policy/regionaldevelopmentpoliciesinoecdcountries.htm">similar approach</a> to actively support major urban “agglomerations” such as Bordeaux and Lyon.</p>
<p>China has active policies to reduce the growth of the super-sized or <a href="https://www.1421.consulting/2018/05/chinese-tier-2-cities/">tier-one cities</a> (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou) and <a href="https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1002002/chinas-second-tier-cities-battle-for-bright-minds">promote tier-two and three cities</a>, all of which have a population of more than one million. </p>
<p>Registration for those moving into lower tier cities, which gives access to various social services, has been relaxed. Connectivity to <a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/china-lower-tier-cities">lower tier cities</a> has been enhanced by investment in high speed rail and airports. And new rail links to Europe under the Belt and Road Initiative have helped tier two inland cities such as Wuhan and Chengdu.</p>
<h2>Make smaller cities bigger</h2>
<p>It’s clear the modern economy requires alternatives to Australia’s big cities to pack sufficient punch if they’re to really compete with the metropolitan areas. </p>
<p>Building up large new cities from scratch, as we tried to do in the ‘70s, is too expensive and risky. We should focus on the few large alternatives we already have to the big four cities. This means Adelaide and Canberra, in particular, should be considered for more rapid growth. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rail-access-improves-liveability-but-all-regional-centres-are-not-equal-96462">Rail access improves liveability, but all regional centres are not equal</a>
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<p>Adelaide’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-30/adelaide-30-year-plan-explained/8570598">30-year plan for urban growth</a> envisions nearly two million people by 2045, and there would be advantages for the nation if that mark were reached sooner rather than later. But that would perhaps require other states to give up a bit of their own growth – something which may not be an easy sell to the state governments.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Searle receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>In the 70s, Whitlam tried to build new, big cities. But this was too costly. Now the most viable solution for Australia’s population woes is to make existing cities bigger.Glen Searle, Honorary Associate Professor in Planning, University of Queensland and, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/948972018-04-12T00:52:10Z2018-04-12T00:52:10ZOcean heat waves and weaker winds will keep Australia warm for a while yet<p>The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks">latest climate outlook</a>, issued today, suggests the above-average warmth of April is likely to extend into May, and for parts of the south, potentially into winter.</p>
<p>The outlooks for May temperatures show that both days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for much of Australia. Only northeast Queensland is likely to miss out on warmer temperatures, with no strong push there towards warmer or cooler conditions.</p>
<p>The unseasonable warmth, which has broken records in <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/04/09/09/48/unseasonably-high-temperatures-to-hang-over-parts-of-sydney-and-adelaide-this-week">Adelaide and Sydney</a>, appears to be driven by high ocean temperatures, and weaker westerly winds and much lower than average soil moisture across southern Australia. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214396/original/file-20180412-560-rol7xn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214396/original/file-20180412-560-rol7xn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214396/original/file-20180412-560-rol7xn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214396/original/file-20180412-560-rol7xn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214396/original/file-20180412-560-rol7xn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214396/original/file-20180412-560-rol7xn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214396/original/file-20180412-560-rol7xn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214396/original/file-20180412-560-rol7xn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The rainfall outlook for May is mixed, but generally shows no strong shift towards a wetter or drier month for most of Australia.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/winter-heatwaves-are-nice-as-extreme-weather-events-go-27172">Winter heatwaves are nice ... as extreme weather events go</a>
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<p>By June the tendency for warmer than normal days may start to wane. This easing of the outlook for above average temperatures as we head into winter is reflected in the full May-July outlook, with only some parts of southern Australia likely to be warmer than average. Southern parts of Western Australia and South Australia have a moderate chance of warmer than average daytime temperatures, with stronger odds over southern Victoria.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214402/original/file-20180412-592-7hva8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214402/original/file-20180412-592-7hva8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214402/original/file-20180412-592-7hva8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214402/original/file-20180412-592-7hva8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214402/original/file-20180412-592-7hva8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214402/original/file-20180412-592-7hva8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214402/original/file-20180412-592-7hva8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214402/original/file-20180412-592-7hva8j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The full May to July outlook shows a more balanced picture, with southern Australia more likely to experience higher than average temperatures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Odds don’t favour a strong push towards a particularly wet or dry three months for much of Australia, apart from some areas in the far southeast. </p>
<h2>What’s behind the warmth?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzat16LMtQk">El Niño–Southern Oscillation</a> (ENSO) and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-tropical-indian-ocean-to-blame-for-southern-australias-wet-winter-62817">Indian Ocean Dipole</a> (IOD) are two of Australia’s major climate drivers. ENSO is currently in a neutral phase, meaning its neither El Niño nor La Niña. Our outlooks suggest it is likely to stay neutral leading into winter.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-el-nino-and-la-nina-27719">Explainer: El Niño and La Niña</a>
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<p>The IOD is also neutral, and most models suggest it will remain so over the coming months.</p>
<p>But given it is harder to forecast ENSO and the IOD in autumn compared to other times of the year, climatologists will be monitoring Indian and Pacific Ocean temperature patterns closely as we edge towards winter.</p>
<p>With near-average temperature patterns in the tropical oceans to our east and west, there is no strong shift in the outlook towards widespread wetter or drier conditions for Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214404/original/file-20180412-560-184hzm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214404/original/file-20180412-560-184hzm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214404/original/file-20180412-560-184hzm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214404/original/file-20180412-560-184hzm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214404/original/file-20180412-560-184hzm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214404/original/file-20180412-560-184hzm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214404/original/file-20180412-560-184hzm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214404/original/file-20180412-560-184hzm6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rainfall during May is expected to remain essentially average.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, for temperatures it’s a little different. Sure ENSO and the IOD are playing a minor role right now, but other factors are coming into play.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-bom-outlook-for-the-weather-over-the-next-three-months-is-neutral-heres-what-that-really-means-94031">The BOM outlook for the weather over the next three months is 'neutral' – here's what that really means</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Ocean heat waves</h2>
<p>Ocean <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs64.pdf">temperatures in the Tasman Sea</a> and around New Zealand are much warmer than average – in fact at record levels in the past few months - and are expected to remain warm over the coming months. These warm sea temperatures are associated with a large area of lower than usual air pressure to Australia’s east, which is likely to weaken the westerly winds that normally bring cooler air to southern Australia in autumn and winter.</p>
<p>Another factor in the current and forecast warmth is the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/#/ss_pct/Relative/Day/-39.00/130.40/4/Point/Separate///2018/4/10">very much below average soil moisture</a> across southern Australia. With little moisture available to evaporate and cool the air, and the soils themselves not able to store as much heat, the air above the ground heats more rapidly in the daytime.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214398/original/file-20180412-570-47nnzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214398/original/file-20180412-570-47nnzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214398/original/file-20180412-570-47nnzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214398/original/file-20180412-570-47nnzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214398/original/file-20180412-570-47nnzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214398/original/file-20180412-570-47nnzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214398/original/file-20180412-570-47nnzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214398/original/file-20180412-570-47nnzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition to our natural climate drivers, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term trend in global air and ocean temperatures. <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries">Winter maximum temperatures have increased by 1°C over the past century,</a> with three of the top five warmest winters in the past 108 years occurring since 2009. Oceans around Australia have warmed by slightly more, with four of our top five warmest years since 2010.</p>
<p>So while the normal big two drivers of our climate remain benign, it would actually be wrong to assume there will be a quick return to more average temperatures. The outlook released today suggests we may have to wait at least another month until service returns to normal for much of the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Record-breaking April heat is likely to continue for at least another month.Jonathan Pollock, Climatologist, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyAndrew B. Watkins, Manager of Long-range Forecast Services, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyCatherine Ganter, Senior Climatologist, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/842862017-11-15T19:17:48Z2017-11-15T19:17:48ZNatural hazard risk: is it just going to get worse or can we do something about it?<blockquote>
<p>Tomorrow’s risk is being built today. We must therefore move away from risk assessments that show risk at a single point in the present and move instead towards risk assessments that can guide decision makers towards a resilient future. – <a href="https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/Riskier%20Future.pdf">Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery</a> (2016)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But how can we do this? What decisions can we make today that will reduce the future risk of natural hazards, especially in a time of climate change? As an example, let’s take Adelaide, the South Australian capital, which is home to about 1.3 million people. We modelled five different plausible futures for greater Adelaide to explore the impacts of different risk-reduction strategies. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188912/original/file-20171005-21999-1jyyeav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188912/original/file-20171005-21999-1jyyeav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188912/original/file-20171005-21999-1jyyeav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188912/original/file-20171005-21999-1jyyeav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188912/original/file-20171005-21999-1jyyeav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188912/original/file-20171005-21999-1jyyeav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188912/original/file-20171005-21999-1jyyeav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188912/original/file-20171005-21999-1jyyeav.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Modelling different plausible futures for greater Adelaide is a way to explore the impacts of risk-reduction strategies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When considering natural hazard risks, most people think about bushfires and floods. These risks are <a href="https://theconversation.com/future-bushfires-will-be-worse-we-need-to-adapt-now-53041">likely to get worse as a result of climate change</a>. While we certainly need to act now to reduce climate change impacts, this is largely beyond the control of local governments.</p>
<p>But local decision-makers can control some aspects of natural hazard risk. These include the future locations of people and infrastructure.</p>
<p>In Adelaide, for instance, if we allow more people to live near rivers, they are more likely to be exposed to floods. And if more people live in the Adelaide Hills, they are more likely to be exposed to bushfires. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/higher-density-in-a-flood-zone-heres-a-way-to-do-it-and-reduce-the-risks-86608">Higher density in a flood zone? Here’s a way to do it and reduce the risks</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Given the city’s population is expected to grow, land use planning is an essential aspect of hazard risk reduction. Planning should ensure that development occurs in areas where hazards are less likely to occur – if there are no people or buildings in areas prone to bushfires or floods, then there is no risk. </p>
<p>Local governments can also make decisions now that are likely to increase the resilience of communities and buildings that are exposed to hazards. For example, if building codes in Adelaide are changed today to require that all new buildings in bushfire-prone areas are <a href="http://theconversation.com/adapting-to-bushfires-a-new-idea-of-fire-proof-homes-54656">built from non-combustible material</a>, bushfire risk is unlikely to increase significantly. The risk might even decrease as old building stock is renewed. </p>
<p>Similarly, community education and campaigns to increase volunteering rates can increase long-term community resilience.</p>
<p>So the key to reducing risk is to understand that natural hazard risk is a combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (Figure 1).</p>
<p><strong>Figure 1: Elements of natural hazard risk</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192937/original/file-20171102-19889-bj0sn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192937/original/file-20171102-19889-bj0sn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192937/original/file-20171102-19889-bj0sn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192937/original/file-20171102-19889-bj0sn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192937/original/file-20171102-19889-bj0sn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192937/original/file-20171102-19889-bj0sn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192937/original/file-20171102-19889-bj0sn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192937/original/file-20171102-19889-bj0sn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The hazard component of the risk triangle in figure 1 corresponds to the likelihood that a hazard, such as a flood or bushfire, will actually occur at a particular location. If there is no hazard, there is no risk. </p>
<p>Exposure refers to who or what is exposed to the hazard at a particular location (who or what is getting wet, for example, in the case of a flood). This could be people, industry, agriculture, buildings and critical infrastructure. So even if a hazard occurs at a particular location, if nothing of value is exposed to the hazard, there is no risk.</p>
<p>Vulnerability corresponds to the impact or damage to people and assets that are exposed to a natural hazard event. For example, if a building is exposed to a bushfire, how the building is constructed has an impact on the resulting damage. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/future-bushfires-will-be-worse-we-need-to-adapt-now-53041">Future bushfires will be worse: we need to adapt now</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>It is also vital to understand that long-term local planning decisions have greater potential to affect changes in exposure and vulnerability. This, then, is where we find the greatest opportunity for reducing long-term natural disaster risk.</p>
<p>Given that risk-reduction measures targeting exposure and vulnerability take time to take effect, it is vital that decisions affecting future risk are made now. A potential problem with this approach is that we don’t know what the future holds, especially in a time of unprecedented technological, political and socioeconomic change. </p>
<h2>Modelling different scenarios</h2>
<p>To manage this challenge, we worked with policymakers to develop storylines representing five different plausible futures for greater Adelaide until 2050. These scenarios were framed around challenges to community resilience and to implementing top-down <a href="http://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/53542">policy measures to reduce natural hazard risks</a> (Table 1). </p>
<p><strong>Table 1: Challenges to implementing mitigation options and to community resilience</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188914/original/file-20171005-21957-1c7dus5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188914/original/file-20171005-21957-1c7dus5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188914/original/file-20171005-21957-1c7dus5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188914/original/file-20171005-21957-1c7dus5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188914/original/file-20171005-21957-1c7dus5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188914/original/file-20171005-21957-1c7dus5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188914/original/file-20171005-21957-1c7dus5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188914/original/file-20171005-21957-1c7dus5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Riddell et al, 2017</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We then modelled these scenarios in a decision-support system that integrates models for hazards, land use and building stock (Figure 2).</p>
<p><strong>Figure 2: Integrating models for hazards, land use and building stock in a decision support system</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192777/original/file-20171101-8508-1nq40t5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192777/original/file-20171101-8508-1nq40t5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192777/original/file-20171101-8508-1nq40t5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192777/original/file-20171101-8508-1nq40t5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192777/original/file-20171101-8508-1nq40t5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192777/original/file-20171101-8508-1nq40t5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192777/original/file-20171101-8508-1nq40t5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192777/original/file-20171101-8508-1nq40t5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Risk was expressed in terms of average annual loss per 100m by 100m grid cell. This enabled us to compare the risks associated with the different hazards in each mapped area (Figure 3). For the purposes of illustration, these three scenarios are shown:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Silicon Hills</strong> (low challenges to mitigation and resilience) - Greater Adelaide transitions towards a new technology-focused economy, driven by highly skilled and engaged locals and expatriates. Residents enjoy the relaxed, nature-filled lifestyle the region offers.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Cynical Villagers</strong> (mitigation challenges dominate) – Greater Adelaide experiences low population growth but maintains a preference for large, newly developed properties. Community attitudes lead to environmental assets being strongly protected with an emphasis on small-scale, high-quality agricultural products.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Ignorance of the Lambs</strong> (resilience challenges dominate) – Greater Adelaide experiences large population growth, driven by migration. This creates a need for more commuter developments, with people attracted to existing activity centres along transport routes. </p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Figure 3: Changes in exposure to hazards for three of the five scenarios</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192779/original/file-20171101-8441-1vwfdqb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192779/original/file-20171101-8441-1vwfdqb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192779/original/file-20171101-8441-1vwfdqb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192779/original/file-20171101-8441-1vwfdqb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192779/original/file-20171101-8441-1vwfdqb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192779/original/file-20171101-8441-1vwfdqb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192779/original/file-20171101-8441-1vwfdqb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192779/original/file-20171101-8441-1vwfdqb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A ‘policy wind tunnel’ test</h2>
<p>We could then explore the impacts of different risk-reduction strategies under a range of plausible climate, economic and population scenarios. </p>
<p>Using <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216300780?via%3Dihub">exploratory scenarios</a> together with <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216311239">modelling to support decision-making</a> enables us to explore the impact of today’s decisions on the potential future risk of natural hazards in a safe environment. It’s like using a “policy wind tunnel” to stress-test different risk-reduction strategies under a range of potential future conditions. </p>
<p>Such an approach enables decision-makers to minimise future risks by identifying and implementing policy options that are likely to be effective under a wide range of plausible conditions. And that means we can avoid being caught by surprise by the impacts of future natural hazard events.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Holger Robert Maier receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Riddell receives funding from the Bushfire & Natural Hazard CRC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hedwig van Delden receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC.</span></em></p>What decisions can we make today to reduce the future risk of hazards like floods and fire? Particularly in a time of climate change, modelling various plausible futures helps us plan for uncertainty.Holger Robert Maier, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of AdelaideGraeme Riddell, Research Fellow, School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of AdelaideHedwig van Delden, Adjunct Associate Professor, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/818242017-08-17T20:20:37Z2017-08-17T20:20:37ZLessons from Adelaide in how a smart city can work to benefit everyone<p>By the time you’ve finished reading this article, roughly 20 people will <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-urban-population-is-growing-so-how-can-cities-plan-for-migrants-49931">have moved from the country into a city</a> somewhere around the world. In any given week, millions of people head into cities. </p>
<p>Cities are growing well beyond anything their founders could have imagined. At the same time, the resources available within cities are not scaling up at the same rate. Many are looking for solutions to these problems; one being proposed is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/smart-cities-19207">“smart city”</a>.</p>
<p>“Smart cities” can encompass concepts in urban design, or focus on the engineering required to support a city. But it’s very easy to use the term without really saying what it actually means in terms of improvements people will see. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-a-good-city-80677">What actually is a good city?</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Transport, aged care and parks are three areas where existing projects and available technology are making cities and suburbs better places to live. These projects are real and happening now. In Adelaide, experts from across the University of Adelaide’s five faculties are part of the newly launched <a href="http://www.adelaide.edu.au/smart-cities/">Australian Smart Cities Consortium</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YKWDJQU5Qjs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Adelaide’s Australian Smart Cities Consortium aims to tap into vast amounts of data to make life better for city residents.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>More efficient transport</h2>
<p>The car has dictated much of the way we live in modern cities. One way we can improve everyone’s lives is to make transport networks better. </p>
<p>By Australian standards, Adelaide has quite low levels of traffic, but it still suffers from traffic jams and congestion. This leads to frustration and makes everyone’s lives less pleasant. </p>
<p>One way we can make this better is by understanding our traffic flows better. We can use this information to adjust how cars <a href="http://addinsight.com.au/">move through busy areas</a>.</p>
<p>But not everyone drives – so let’s also look at public transport and pedestrian crossings. </p>
<p>Putting GPS tracking on buses allows riders to know when the bus is coming, and if they have to run because one is about to come around the corner. With better traffic monitoring and control, we can build bike lanes that are safer and integrate with existing traffic, or change the way that pedestrians cross the road.</p>
<p>We can show pedestrians a countdown timer for the time left to cross, or give elderly citizens more time to cross on demand – <a href="https://qz.com/246088/singapore-is-giving-its-senior-citizens-the-power-to-hold-up-traffic/">as seen in Singapore</a> with smart cards. </p>
<p>The computing and monitoring capability to do this has existed for some time, but the smart city focus lets us pin down problems of city living and identify where we can put our resources to help. </p>
<p>South Australia’s Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure uses vast amounts of sensing data and planning information to build transport networks that will support the next phase of Adelaide’s growth.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-gamification-can-make-transport-systems-and-choices-work-better-for-us-57663">How ‘gamification’ can make transport systems and choices work better for us</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Better care</h2>
<p>Health issues and the provision of health care are a constant issue for governments. Up to <a href="http://www.statebudget.sa.gov.au/#Budget_Papers">one-third of Australian state budgets</a> goes to health care and hospitals. And with an ageing population, we are going to need to care for more and more people over time. </p>
<p>Current work in Adelaide on smart ageing provides ways to look after elderly and isolated citizens without robbing them of their privacy. Non-intrusive monitoring can see if someone has fallen over or hasn’t got out of bed that day. We can combine this with data privacy to let only doctors or close family know what’s going on. </p>
<p>Sometimes, just knowing the temperature of someone’s house and being able to notify a contact or care worker if it’s too hot or cold can make the difference in saving a life.</p>
<p>Being able to care for someone, giving them autonomy and dignity in their own home, will help us look after the growing number of ageing people over the next few decades.</p>
<h2>Well-kept green spaces</h2>
<p>Cities need a combination of spaces to make people happy. Some we work in, some we live in, some we move through, and some, like parks and green space, we linger in and enjoy as part of leisure and play. </p>
<p>Parks, gardens and playgrounds make cities and suburbs more liveable but have upkeep and repair costs. Non-camera-based sensors in a park can tell us how many people are using it and whether a certain piece of play equipment is being avoided because it is broken. </p>
<p>So, instead of having to send someone around to see whether something has happened, we can send someone out to fix something <em>when</em> it happens. </p>
<p>We have a lot of great resources in and around Australian cities. In Adelaide, and in many other cities, Smart Cities projects are taking place right now that make these growing urban centres more liveable for everyone.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-panopticons-are-coming-and-theyll-know-when-we-think-the-grass-is-greener-63935">The Panopticons are coming! And they’ll know when we think the grass is greener</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Falkner works for The University of Adelaide as an academic in the School of Computer Science and as Director of the Australian Smart Cities Consortium,</span></em></p>Smart city thinking makes good use of rapidly developing technology to help make cities work better, easier-to-navigate, safer, healthier and more enjoyable places to live.Nick Falkner, Associate Professor and Director of the Australian Smart Cities Consortium, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/770872017-05-15T20:11:17Z2017-05-15T20:11:17ZIs Melbourne the music capital of Australia? Sydney or Adelaide might pip it to the post<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169250/original/file-20170515-3659-5tnk9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Melbourne's Flinders Street station is transformed into a stage for the 2013 White Night. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sweeoon/13717082123/in/photolist-mU8CBV-R2dNgP-mU8Au8-QYBJMs-yuJDTf-kkUsj8-dXnyrd-SgeJ3M-dXgGHv-dXnm89-dXnmLs-kmN2tG-SgezzK-kmMXry-kmN69N-knwJte-rifLSX-pS4urx-qmjYPN-knBtwt-ngtQRm-knxbUF-dXH59y-dXnqRu-rfotpC-dXBowF-ks6kmb-knZBUC-kDX1L9-kDVnEX-dXBou4-bYobEJ-cBi6rE-pZzbFS-knkppe-RFvYzj-kDVkHR-knXycH-rhmTGs-SgeEyx-R2dS9Z-knXmuy-knW2tD-SgemiV-dXBohV-kDX1Qh-dXBoBz-dXBokv-knNcLt-knNpKZ">Gav Owen/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Melbourne’s successful bid to host a <a href="http://www.musiccitiesconvention.com/">prestigious international conference</a> on music cities in 2018 has been hailed as a golden opportunity for it to cement its status as “<a href="http://themusic.com.au/news/all/2017/05/03/melbourne-stamps-itself-as-australias-music-capital-by-hosting-major-global-event/">Australia’s music capital</a>”, and “a global music city”.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.citylab.com/cityfixer/2015/10/what-does-it-take-to-make-a-music-city/413011">Music Cities Convention</a> brings together global music players from government, industry and the academy and aims to “create a tool-kit” about how to “cultivate [a] vibrant and lucrative music city”. </p>
<p>But is Melbourne really Australia’s music capital? In a <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2158244017691801">recent paper</a>, I crunched the numbers to find that the jury is still out on this claim. Indeed arch rival, Sydney (or even Adelaide) have a chance to claim this title. </p>
<p>UNESCO, the United Nations’ education, science and culture body, offers the only <a href="http://en.unesco.org/creative-cities/home">official accreditation</a> of a music city. For a city to be awarded this title, it needs to have a strong music heritage, an excellent background in music-making, education, community involvement and regular high-profile local and international music events. </p>
<p>UNESCO has designated Melbourne a city of literature, and Sydney a city of film. But Adelaide that was recognised as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-12/adelaide-unesco-city-of-music/7023412">Australia’s only city of music</a> in 2015. Adelaide plays host to numerous international festivals including the annual WOMADelaide, and the OzAsia Festival. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zXKN_IBdhRA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Adelaide-based Tkay Maidza in Carry On.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Arguably Melbourne fulfils this criteria, however UNESCO does not allow for cities to hold more than one title in different creative industries. This leaves Melbourne and its music capital status in the dubious land of self-branding. </p>
<h2>Show us the money</h2>
<p>After extensive data mining I found <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2158244017691801">three ways of assessing the vitality of a city’s music scene</a>: economics, creativity, and heritage, although the data are patchy.</p>
<p>Firstly, we can look at the economics of music, including revenue from music, employment, audience participation, and the number of music venues. As the 2015 <a href="http://www.ifpi.org/downloads/The-Mastering-of-a-Music-City.pdf">Mastering of a Music City report</a> suggest, a “music city” is defined as an urban area with a “vibrant music economy”. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169247/original/file-20170515-3659-qmb40i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169247/original/file-20170515-3659-qmb40i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169247/original/file-20170515-3659-qmb40i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169247/original/file-20170515-3659-qmb40i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169247/original/file-20170515-3659-qmb40i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169247/original/file-20170515-3659-qmb40i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169247/original/file-20170515-3659-qmb40i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169247/original/file-20170515-3659-qmb40i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A piece of music history at Melbourne’s ACDC lane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/geoftheref/5915052320/">Geof Wilson/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to <a href="http://musicvictoria.com.au/assets/Documents/DAE_Live_music_report_2011.pdf">Victorian</a> <a href="http://www.musicvictoria.com.au/assets/Documents/Victorian_Live_Music_Census_2012.pdf">reports</a>, Melbourne has 465 live music venues and its music industry earns more than A$1.04 billion each year. Although not included in the <a href="http://www.worldcitiescultureforum.com/news/world-cities-culture-report-2015-now-published">2015 World Cities Cultural Report</a>, this puts Melbourne ahead of Sydney with 435 venues. Adelaide, which was given music city status by UNESCO, has about 208 live music venues. Therefore Melbourne (and even Sydney) compares favourably with Los Angeles (510 venues), New York City (453), Tokyo (385), and London (245).</p>
<p>However a <a href="http://livemusicoffice.com.au/research">national study</a> in 2015 suggest that NSW leads the way in music employment (13,832 jobs in NSW and 11,117 jobs in Victoria), audience participation, measured in live music ticket sales (A$342,544 million in NSW; A$275,748 million in Victoria), and music revenue annually (A$1.8 billion in NSW; A$1.4 billion in Victora). </p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.dunstan.org.au/docs/elbournereport2013.pdf">Martin Elbourne</a>, co-founder of the inaugural Music Conventions, contends, most of the commercial music business is based in Sydney. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169248/original/file-20170515-3652-fev71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169248/original/file-20170515-3652-fev71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169248/original/file-20170515-3652-fev71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169248/original/file-20170515-3652-fev71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169248/original/file-20170515-3652-fev71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169248/original/file-20170515-3652-fev71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169248/original/file-20170515-3652-fev71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169248/original/file-20170515-3652-fev71m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sydney and NSW bring in most of Australia’s music revenue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/paxtonscameravideodigital/14030732459/">Paxtons Camera Video Digital/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Creative cities</h2>
<p>We can also consider a city’s creativity, calculated through measures such as technology, talent, tolerance and territorial assets. As US urban economist Richard Florida would argue, these measures show that a <a href="http://www.ifpi.org/downloads/The-Mastering-of-a-Music-City.pdf">city is welcoming to the music industry</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://startupgenome.com/">2017 Start-up Genome project</a>, which assesses the success rate of start-ups and their link to job creation and economic growth, ranked Melbourne 22nd in the world for technology and music start-up culture, just pipped by Sydney at 21st.</p>
<p>However Melbourne comes up trumps on musical talent. As <a href="http://apraamcos.com.au/media/corporate/postcode-rankings-whitepaper.pdf">2003-2013 postcode data</a> show, Melbourne had the most songwriters in the nation, with Sydney coming a close second. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/o-nr1nNC3ds?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Melbourne has the most songwriters in the country, including Courtney Barnett.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tolerance is harder to measure, because it is linked to lifestyle choices. <a href="http://www.tourism.vic.gov.au/images/stories/Documents/StrategiesandPlans/TV_annual_report_09_complete.pdf">Tourism Victoria</a> contends that Melbourne is renowned for its creative leaders, who are community minded with a progressive mindset.</p>
<p>Melbourne has also earned the title of <a href="http://pages.eiu.com/rs/783-XMC-194/images/Liveability_August2016.pdf">most liveable city</a> in the world for the past six years. Adelaide was ranked fifth in the world, while Sydney came in seventh. </p>
<p>However, transport problems, housing affordability and geographical isolation from the Northern Hemisphere are points against Melbourne’s liveability.</p>
<p>Whether Melbourne is Australia’s music capital remains up for debate because the many different ways we can measure music activity in cities paint different pictures. </p>
<p>But to date, the claims that Melbourne is Australia’s music capital remain an abstract notion coined by cultural groups that have a vested interest in pursuing a policy agenda: to sell their city as a national and global music city. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Will Melbourne claim the national music crown? This will be discussed in Andrea Baker’s next book, The Great Music City, Music, Space and Identity, (Palgrave Macmillan: London) due for release next year</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77087/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Jean Baker is the academic representative on the City of Melbourne, Music Advisory Board, 2013-2017.</span></em></p>Melbourne may be the self-proclaimed music capital of Australia, but industry data suggests Sydney may have the upper hand. Meanwhile the UN recognises Adelaide as the country’s only city of music.Andrea Jean Baker, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/702652017-02-09T02:39:13Z2017-02-09T02:39:13ZGod bless the footy: dissent and distractions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150226/original/image-20161215-2529-10jzqkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Before the AFL, there was the much better, much cooler, much more local SANFL.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/heatherw/15303946066/in/photolist-pjmHZ5-grh2p4-8FVYjk-dhN86T-pm7wMM-p4TLxy-dhN83u-grgZEH-grggR4-dhN5bd-dhN3SL-dhN5ZU-dhN2Rc-dhN7EJ-grgGUb-8FZ9YJ-p4UAgX-dhN6UW-dhN6DY-grfKH7-dhN8gE-8FZaod-dhN49u-8FZ9MA-dhN3Z8-dhN4DT-dhN75u-dhN4qK-dhN5qX-pm7pQv-p4UarY-8FZ9G3-8FVY2n-dhN7t5-dhN7yF-dhN3pw-grgi9p-p4UesU-dhN6rm-grgFw1-pmmYyQ-grgttJ-dhN3yN-grgzfU-dhN3Gb-dhN5VK-grgDqY-grgaFi-8FZazq-grgC1U">heatherw/flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This piece is republished with permission from State of Hope, the 55th edition of Griffith Review. Articles are a little longer than most published on The Conversation, presenting an in-depth analysis of the economic, social, environmental and cultural challenges facing South Australia, and the possibilities of renewal and revitalisation.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>When it comes to colourful and controversial views, the long-time mayor of Port Augusta, Joy Baluch, set elite standards. She <a href="http://www.slsa.sa.gov.au/archivaldocs/oh/OH862.pdf">said in 2008</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I hate sport.</p>
<p>I’ve never had time for it, been too busy looking after a family, you know, surviving. It’s a waste of time. I hate football and tennis and golf … and if ever the Asians are going to come in it’s going to be on grand final day … And they’ll just take over peacefully.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I’m not sure exactly which Asians she imagined would swarm South Australia on grand final day, destroying our white-bread, white-skinned way of life. Perhaps all the Asians – the Chinese and the Indonesians, the Japanese and the Koreans, the Vietnamese and the Thais – slaughtering innocent women and children with nothing but the power of kung fu, riding their Suzuki motorbikes, eating butter chicken and guzzling Chang beer after a solid day’s conquering.</p>
<p>The term “Asians” – whether she used it here thoughtlessly, provocatively or jokily – is symptomatic of Baluch the plain-speaking dissenter. But so too is her attack on sport. Few things are more shocking and inexplicable to huge numbers of South Australians (<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/09/08/1062901996932.html">weird murders notwithstanding</a>) than someone willing to have a dig at the footy.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.saints.com.au/news/2013-05-29/the-man-with-the-killer-approach">Alan Killigrew</a>, a Victorian who came to Adelaide in 1959 to coach the Norwood Football Club, offers a more <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=my-4EKn2SiEC&pg=PA75&lpg=PA75#v=onepage&q&f=false">conventional and comforting view</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>After all, what is a football club? It is grass in the middle, posts at the ends, and bricks and mortar. It’s people that give it soul. A football club is a living body.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I’ve heard family and friends describe their church in exactly these terms. Footy isn’t just the dominant spectator sport and topic of conversation in South Australia. It’s a salve. It’s a community binding agent. It’s the best entertainment going, even in the digital age. </p>
<p>It’s a mass obsession, especially when one of the local AFL teams – the Crows or the Power – sits high (or low) on the ladder.</p>
<h2>A love for Norwood</h2>
<p>Before the AFL, there was the much better, much cooler, much more local SANFL.</p>
<p>When I was nine years old and living in the lead-smelter city of Port Pirie, not too far from Baluch’s Port Augusta, Norwood made the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_SANFL_Grand_Final">1978 SANFL Grand Final</a>. Never mind Asians: little green men from outer space could have landed their spaceship while Dad and I watched the last quarter on the TV in our lounge room on Three Chain Road.</p>
<p>Norwood – the mighty Redlegs – were 29 points down at three-quarter time against Sturt, who had only lost once all season. The ’Legs were only so close because Sturt had kicked poorly in front of goal. </p>
<p>Norwood’s then coach, Bob Hammond, <a href="http://www.redlegsmuseum.com.au/ON_FIELD/PREMIERSHIPS/1978.aspx">told his players</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>You can win it if you believe you can win. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Inspired – enraptured, perhaps – the players surged. In the chaotic final minutes, umpire Des Foster awarded Norwood’s Philip Gallagher a mark – or was it a free kick? – the legitimacy of which Sturt supporters still dispute. On a tight angle, “Gags” kicked the winning goal.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8q3u_7YN_h4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The ending to the 1978 SANFL Grand Final.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the nearly 40 years that have passed, I have never strayed far from that spot in front of the TV, too tense to breathe as the clock ticked down: nothing could have mattered more. </p>
<p>I can still feel the disbelief, the ecstasy, as the final siren went and Dad lifted me off the ground and over his shoulder. Most especially, I will never lose my righteous fury at Mum and Dad, who had refused to let me get the train down to Adelaide to go to the game. My older brother Matt witnessed history that day from the concrete terraces of Footy Park, and that’s the reason he has done so well in life.</p>
<p>Norwood’s 1984 premiership was even more memorable, although I wasn’t even in the country. By then, I was a painfully shy teenager living with my parents in Logan, Utah, in a valley between two stunning mountain ranges and surrounded by Reagan-hugging Mormons. </p>
<p>That year, Norwood came from fifth, winning three knockout finals to make the grand final against Port Adelaide. On the Monday after the final, the family back home mailed us a VHS tape of the game. While we waited for it to arrive, nobody would tell us whether we’d won. Finally, Grandma Allington, under extreme pressure from her loving son and grandson, muttered down the phone in her faux grumpy way:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I promised I wouldn’t tell you who won. But if I did tell you, you’d be very happy.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>When the tape finally arrived in the mail, we couldn’t play it because the US used the NTSC television display system. At a friend’s place – we had no video player ourselves, although we had access to something like a billion TV stations – we fast-forwarded the tape and, with electronic snow for vision, listened to the commentator’s distorted voice call the final seconds, his voice slow and deep:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Theeeeere … itttttt. Issssss … it’sssssss … alllllll … ovvv-errrrrr.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It was a couple of weeks before we found a kind stranger with a set-up that allowed us to watch the game.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mzU06TU781U?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Highlights of the 1984 SANFL Grand Final.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Footy embedded itself in my childhood life in deeper ways than winning games and the occasional premiership. I researched everything about football. More importantly, I felt everything. I cried one night in 1980, when Port Adelaide’s Russell Ebert won his fourth Magarey Medal and so deprived Norwood’s Michael Taylor of what was rightfully his.</p>
<p>I wasn’t only consumed by the season in progress. One day, Dad took me to meet an old man called “Wacka” Scott, who let me hold his two Magarey Medals (1924 and 1930). </p>
<p>Another time, I traipsed around a suburban cemetery to find the grave of “Topsy” Waldron, who played in Norwood’s first year in 1878 (Norwood were premiers on debut). In his book commemorating the centenary of Norwood, <a href="http://www.blaqbooks.com.au/index.php?route=product/product&path=64_129&product_id=600">Red and Blue Blooded</a>, Mike Coward wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Waldron died a pathetically lonely man. He believed only his Norwood Football Club loved him.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But perhaps most of all my love for footy and for Norwood was about family. I loved reading old newspaper clippings of my grandpa’s football exploits. Harold Allington was a defender who played 56 games for Norwood between 1931 and 1935; he won the 1934 best and fairest; he played for the state; he had a clean pair of hands.</p>
<p>He was also – and this was the part I loved the most – injury-prone. The Advertiser reported on May 17, 1935:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This year he is still the shuttlecock of misfortune. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>He broke his collarbone, missed ten games from a single concussion, did an elbow, badly bruised his hip, and more.</p>
<p>My favourite clipping detailed the day Grandpa cut off the middle toe of his right foot while chopping wood in the backyard: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Allington, who was wearing slippers at the time, limped into the kitchen unseen, and despite great pain prepared some hot water in which to bathe his foot.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>How he managed to chop off one toe – why not two toes? why not half his foot? – was forever a mystery to me.</p>
<p>I was almost as proud of Dad, who played a couple of trial games for Norwood in the early 1960s. He could have made it – or so I’ve always believed – but he was at theological college at the time. One day the coach, Alan Killigrew, spoke to Dad after training. He said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>You’ve got to choose between football and God.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>To my everlasting regret, Dad chose God.</p>
<p>It’s been several years since I’ve been to a Norwood game, although I occasionally watch them on television. I have followed the Crows, the made-up club <a href="http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-02-05/crows-to-don-sa-jumper">“for all South Australians”</a>, since their first game in 1991, but never with the same messianic fervour with which I followed Norwood. </p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, being a Crows fan allows me to retain my culturally embedded and familial hatred of Port Adelaide. I go to the occasional game at the cathedral otherwise known as the new Adelaide Oval (South Australians will line up to tell you it’s a “world-class stadium”), and I watch replays of high-quality matches. </p>
<p>But despite my fading fervour, I retain a version of a football-is-everything mentality. Partly, I’m nostalgic for my childhood. Partly it’s because it’s still, on a good day, a magnificent spectator sport. And partly it’s because I miss my grandpa.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150224/original/image-20161215-2539-5m3fbf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150224/original/image-20161215-2539-5m3fbf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150224/original/image-20161215-2539-5m3fbf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150224/original/image-20161215-2539-5m3fbf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150224/original/image-20161215-2539-5m3fbf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150224/original/image-20161215-2539-5m3fbf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150224/original/image-20161215-2539-5m3fbf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In South Australia, you’re traditionally either a Port Adelaide fan or you hate them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The off-field reigns supreme</h2>
<p>These days, though, I find myself more interested in footy analysis, rumour and realpolitik than in actual games. </p>
<p>The AFL is a legitimate and sometimes compelling space in which to consider a range of political, cultural and social issues, including racism, reconciliation, sexism and misogyny, the deification of the alpha male, the profile of elite women’s sport, the use and misuse of “team first” philosophies, the carnivalised meaning of Anzac Day, the sanctity of Good Friday, performance-enhancing drugs, illicit drugs, gambling, the proliferation of sledging in public and workplace discourse, and more. </p>
<p>The AFL’s own approach to these issues is sometimes awkward, sometimes PR-driven and sometimes tokenistic. But, at other times, they display some sophistication. Often, it’s a bit of both – and in any case, footy fans are hardly the only subset of Australian citizens who struggle to engage constructively with complex issues.</p>
<p>But my interest in off-field matters goes deeper still, by which I mean shallower still. The AFL’s trade period in 2016 threw up its usual mix of players trying to leave clubs and clubs trying to push players out. For a week in October, I was transfixed by <a href="http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-10/carlton-star-bryce-gibbs-requests-trade-to-adelaide">the possibility</a> that Bryce Gibbs might leave the Carlton Football Club, even though he has three years to run on his contract, and come home to Adelaide. </p>
<p>I worried about what player or draft picks the Adelaide Crows would give up to get him. Not Mitch McGovern, surely, who could be anything; not Charlie Cameron – please, no – who Eddie Betts has taken under his wing. In the end, Gibbs <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-trades-2016-bryce-gibbs-stays-at-carlton-after-adelaide-trade-falls-through-20161020-gs6v0p.html">stayed put</a>, with the Crows <a href="http://www.afc.com.au/news/2016-10-20/crows-decline-to-meet-carltons-demands">announcing</a> they “were not prepared to meet Carlton’s unrealistic demands”.</p>
<p>These are the sorts of footy issues that capture my interest: which coach is about to get sacked? Which player has filmed himself snorting a white substance and whacked it up on the internet? Was Norwood’s 1984 premiership – coming from fifth when the finalists came from a top five only – a greater achievement than the Western Bulldogs’ <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-01/western-bulldogs-break-the-drought-with-22-point-win-over-swans/7895386">2016 AFL triumph</a> from seventh to premiers?</p>
<p>Only parochialism can deal with an unanswerable question: Norwood is by definition better than the Western Bulldogs or Footscray or whatever they’re calling themselves this week, and South Australia is by definition better than Victoria.</p>
<p>All this is harmless fun, innocent downtime. But think back to Joy Baluch, who suggested that we’d be too distracted on grand final day to notice an Asian invasion. </p>
<p>Leaving aside Asians, Baluch is onto me – but the situation is more insidious than she suggests. Footy chat doesn’t <em>distract</em> me. I don’t find myself wondering why I am listening to Trade Radio – yes, for a couple of weeks after grand final day, there’s such a thing as a digital nine-to-five talkfest on club negotiations over player movements, real and imagined. </p>
<p>I seek out Trade Radio, specifically seek it out to avoid confronting other, harder, messier things. I’m a political junkie who can’t bear to hear things I don’t want to hear, just as a kid I couldn’t bear to watch Norwood lose.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150033/original/image-20161214-18914-vp1glh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150033/original/image-20161214-18914-vp1glh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150033/original/image-20161214-18914-vp1glh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150033/original/image-20161214-18914-vp1glh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150033/original/image-20161214-18914-vp1glh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150033/original/image-20161214-18914-vp1glh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150033/original/image-20161214-18914-vp1glh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carlton’s Bryce Gibbs (right) requested a move home to Adelaide in the recent AFL trade period.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joe Castro</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Politics and footy</h2>
<p>As Cory Bernardi, senator for South Australia, has grown in prominence, he has begun to remind me of the giant Christ the Redeemer statue that looks down on the city of Rio de Janeiro. </p>
<p>But chiselled Cory is fully animated. He is a faith-fuelled greed-is-good humanoid who invites and incites ridicule, allowing him cover to get on with the business of saving souls; bringing the national budget back into balance; keeping heathens offshore; <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cory-bernardi-to-be-sent-to-united-nations-20160301-gn7al2.html">fixing the UN</a>; making his (now-former) Coalition colleagues appear more centrist and moderate than they are; and scaring people silly.</p>
<p>As political activism goes, whinging about Bernardi is an increasingly lame act. This is a bloke who offers his opponents fresh ammunition every time he aggressively expresses his unpleasant and anachronistic ideas. </p>
<p>But when, say, Jacqui Lambie <a href="http://theaimn.com/day-day-politics-house-shambles-no-just-chaos/">tees off at Bernardi</a> – “prostitutes are far more honest, sincere, humane and compassionate, and better bang for buck than Senator Bernardi will ever be able to deliver” – I laugh, but then I cringe (and not only because sex workers can surely be humane and compassionate human beings).</p>
<p>Taking a stand against Bernardi means – or might mean – taking a stand against family, neighbours, friends, colleagues. It means being willing to scratch at a veneer of community conviviality and solidarity.</p>
<p>At a certain point, I want to get through my day in a good mood, without feeling the need to scream “Who the hell did you vote for?” at the bloke in the car next to me at the lights. I want to deny Bernardi’s public existence, just as I want to avert my gaze from youth unemployment rates, just as I want to pretend that the bodies in the barrels murders didn’t happen in a suburb in the city I call home. </p>
<p>Instead, I want to think about something truly unjust, like why Norwood never got its own team in the AFL. And so – very often – that’s exactly what I do. It’s a free country, after all.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150032/original/image-20161214-18885-1dmaxm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150032/original/image-20161214-18885-1dmaxm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150032/original/image-20161214-18885-1dmaxm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150032/original/image-20161214-18885-1dmaxm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150032/original/image-20161214-18885-1dmaxm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150032/original/image-20161214-18885-1dmaxm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150032/original/image-20161214-18885-1dmaxm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As political activism goes, whinging about Cory Bernardi is an increasingly lame act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>South Australia and dissenters</h2>
<p>Privilege, distractions, parochialism, state pride, complacency, conformity, passivity: these are natural resources that South Australia has in abundance. We can put a positive spin on them too. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.wakefieldpress.com.au/product.php?productid=207">Drawing the Crow</a>, his book about South Australia in the 1950s and ’60s, academic Adrian Mitchell says that Adelaide’s long-time moniker as the City of Churches:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… identifies not a freak nor architecture nor a rampaging wowserism, either current or in the past, but a lifestyle of civic steadiness, regularity and propriety, the values of its founding settlement, in both its English and German constituency.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I recognise my Adelaide – I recognise myself – in Mitchell’s description. And it leaves me deeply uneasy.</p>
<p>In 1957, the year Port Adelaide beat Norwood by 11 points in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1957_SANFL_Grand_Final">grand final</a>, historian Douglas Pike published <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/10713883">Paradise of Dissent: South Australia, 1829–1857</a>. Pike’s book – at times riveting, at times dense, at times tedious – opens with these resonant lines:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>South Australia was settled in 1836 by men whose professed ideals were civil liberty, social opportunity and equality for all religions. Though each of these ideas was moulded in England, each was a protest against English practice. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The first colonists, Pike says, arrived harbouring dissatisfaction with the pace of reform in England: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Only the impatient departed.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The South Australian self-perception of exceptionalism – a “sense of difference”, as historian Derek Whitelock puts it – emerges from these origins and this origin story. </p>
<p>And South Australia has indeed had its fair share of dissenters. There is Catherine Helen Spence, the feminist, electoral reformer, social activist, preacher and writer. Spence thought:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>My work on newspapers and reviews is more characteristic of me, and intrinsically better work than I have done in fiction. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Maybe, but her politically charged fiction resounds still, not least a foray into science fiction in which her terminally ill protagonist trades the last couple of years of her life for “one week in the future”.</p>
<p>South Australian dissenters, including Baluch and Bernardi, have often operated within the political sphere. My favourite colonist is <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/finniss-boyle-travers-2044">Boyle Travers Finniss</a>, who, in 1856, was the first premier of South Australia under responsible government, when the local Legislative Council revised South Australia’s constitution to achieve self-government. </p>
<p>In 1864, Finniss led an expedition to select a site for the capital of the Northern Territory. After he insisted on surveying a swamp, some of his men sailed for Singapore, while six others acquired a seven-metre boat and floated all the way to Champion Bay in Western Australia. </p>
<p>Finniss straddled a line between dissenter and misguided visionary, between principled outlier and dogmatist, between self-confidence and delusion. </p>
<p>American legal scholar Cass Sunstein argues that democracies need dissent; he warns against an excess of conformity. But he also condemns “political correctness” – which he calls “squelching those who reject left-wing orthodoxy” – while acknowledging, correctly but unhelpfully, “we do not need to encourage would-be dissenters who are speaking nonsense”. </p>
<p>Is Bernardi speaking nonsense on behalf of South Australians? It depends who you ask.</p>
<p>And then there is the grand political dissenter of the 20th century, premier and superhero Don Dunstan, who dragged the state – and, to a lesser extent, the Labor Party – into the modern world, and towards something much more resembling a just world, a fair world, a diverse world, a creative world, a food-loving world.</p>
<p>But in time, the phrase “paradise of dissent” has become a slogan, detached from the complex and messy history Pike told. We don’t need Pike’s observation that conformist tendencies kicked in early in the new colony. We don’t need to think about the practical limits of the religious, cultural and political freedoms imagined by the new establishment.</p>
<p>And it’s best, still, that we don’t think too deeply about our treatment of the land’s original inhabitants. In our complacency, we need only know that South Australia was planned (like a kit home), was convict-free (at least in theory) and that it has produced a bumper crop of dissenters (like a tomato plant in a Mediterranean climate). </p>
<p>We need only bask in the afterglow of the Dunstan era, not protect and extend its legacy. We need only know, or believe, that we are exceptional. According to Mitchell:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>What South Australians have done, perhaps more doggedly than those in any other region, is to veil or reserve their own regional identity – not because of any sense of inadequacy or unfitness, but because that is the particular character of the South Australian. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Again, I recognise this South Australia; again, I recognise myself in this South Australia. But such recognition offers us a hole to crawl into that is deep and deceptively warm. </p>
<p>It offers us the chance to pretend that South Australia, in its distinctiveness, is merely the sum of its better parts. It offers us the chance to imagine that South Australia, a place that exports uranium and has a long association with defence industries, stands aloof from the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150223/original/image-20161215-2509-rf3ac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150223/original/image-20161215-2509-rf3ac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150223/original/image-20161215-2509-rf3ac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150223/original/image-20161215-2509-rf3ac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150223/original/image-20161215-2509-rf3ac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150223/original/image-20161215-2509-rf3ac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150223/original/image-20161215-2509-rf3ac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As premier, Don Dunstan dragged South Australia into the modern world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Portrait Gallery/Anthony Browell</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The best dissenter of all …</h2>
<p>In the end, in the neoliberal and memed world we have created, everything’s a competition. So I’ll call it: the best-ever South Australian dissenter isn’t Catherine Helen Spence or Don Dunstan or Cory Bernardi. The best South Australian dissenter is also the best footballer ever. </p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garry_McIntosh">Garry McIntosh</a> was a small, muscled, goateed, hairy, unkempt rover who threw himself into packs, didn’t mind a bit of violence for a good cause, and who changed the course of history with his hardball gets and his handballs: premierships, Magarey Medals, an altered perception of the Norwood Football Club.</p>
<p>In 1982, the North Melbourne Kangaroos drafted “Macca” into the VFL, but he stayed home. When the Crows were formed, eight years before Macca eventually retired, he still wouldn’t shift from the SANFL. </p>
<p>Did he shun the AFL out of love of the local, out of parochialism, to make a stand against a national league, or as a lifestyle choice? Or did he understand his own limitations: was he just too slow to play in the best competition in the land?</p>
<p>When Macca was added to the SA Football Hall of Fame, <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/loyal-macca-in-a-league-of-his-own/story-e6freckc-1226445148911">he insisted</a> he had no regrets because he’d got to play for Norwood:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>But if I were an 18-year-old kid now – with the mentality there is now – things would be different. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Macca hasn’t yet been inducted into the Australian Football Hall of Fame. Now there’s an injustice, or a distraction, worth protesting about.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>A full version of this essay, along with others from the Griffith Review’s latest edition, is available <a href="https://griffithreview.com/editions/state-of-hope/">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Allington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Footy isn’t just the dominant spectator sport and topic of conversation in South Australia. It’s a salve.Patrick Allington, Lecturer in English and Creative Writing, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/634602016-08-05T08:54:25Z2016-08-05T08:54:25ZEdinburgh festivals: how they became the world’s biggest arts event<p>The Edinburgh Festival is upon us again, a three-week spectacular that turns the Scottish capital into the biggest arts destination on the planet. It is in fact a number of different festivals, with the leading Edinburgh International Festival and Edinburgh Festival Fringe returning for a 70th year since their inception in 1947. </p>
<p>From thousands of options this year you could take in Hollywood actor <a href="http://www.eif.co.uk/2016/cumming">Alan Cumming</a> singing cabaret; the latest Broadway version of Tennessee Williams’ <a href="http://www.eif.co.uk/2016/glassmenagerie">The Glass Menagerie</a>; or Icelandic rockers <a href="http://www.eif.co.uk/2016/sigurros#.V6IU5rzSegQ">Sigur Rós</a>. Top comedians <a href="https://tickets.edfringe.com/whats-on/alistair-mcgowan-12th-impressions">Alistair McGowan</a> and <a href="http://www.bridgetchristie.co.uk/gigs/">Bridget Christie</a> will be treading the boards, while those who like their Scottish experience clad in tartan will want to catch the <a href="http://www.edintattoo.co.uk/tickets/">Royal Edinburgh Military Tattoo</a>. Also not to be missed are the <a href="https://www.edbookfest.co.uk">Book Festival</a> and <a href="http://www.edinburghjazzfestival.com">Jazz & Blues Festival</a>. </p>
<p>Far from being confined to August, Edinburgh now holds 12 independently organised festivals throughout the year covering everything from <a href="http://www.tracscotland.org/festivals/scottish-international-storytelling-festival">storytelling</a> to <a href="http://www.sciencefestival.co.uk">science</a> to <a href="http://www.edfilmfest.org.uk">films</a> to the city’s world renowned <a href="https://www.edinburghshogmanay.com">Hogmanay</a> celebrations for New Year’s Eve. The city’s success as a leading cultural tourism destination is closely tied to the festivals’ ongoing strength and their enduring appeal to global audiences. This is why Edinburgh likes to <a href="http://www.edinburghfestivalcity.com/the-city">call itself</a> “the world’s leading festival city”. </p>
<p>Most of Edinburgh’s festivals are still very much on an <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517715000679">upward curve</a>. Where the Fringe, which is considered the world’s largest multi-arts festival, <a href="http://www.edinburghfestivalcity.com/assets/000/000/340/SQW_Economic_Impact_Summer_-_01.12.04_original.pdf?1411036230">sold</a> 790,000 tickets in 1996 and 1.5 million in 2004, <a>it sold</a> 2.3 million in 2015. The Edinburgh International Festival <a href="http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/download/meetings/id/.../item_74_-_summer_festivals_2015">has risen</a> from 418,000 to 441,000 in the same period; while Book Festival audiences <a href="http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/download/meetings/id/.../item_74_-_summer_festivals_2015">have rocketed</a> from 63,000 in 1997, the first year it became an annual event, to 350,000 last year. </p>
<p>With further audience growth <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/culture/edinburgh-international-festival-set-to-smash-box-office-records-1-4192615">expected</a> this August, the city’s combined festival offering attracts a total of 4.5 million people a year. This is similar to the FIFA World Cup and only behind the Olympic Games – both of which take place every four years. </p>
<p>The Scottish economic impact of all these festivals has also gone <a href="http://www.edinburghfestivalcity.com/assets/000/001/964/Edinburgh_Festivals_-_2015_Impact_Study_Final_Report_original.pdf?1469537463">up and up</a>. Between 2010 and 2015, it rose from £253m to £313m as festival-goers spent money on everything from Edinburgh accommodation to visits to the <a href="http://www.nationalwallacemonument.com">Wallace Monument</a> in Stirling. Then there are the harder to measure social and cultural impacts, with 89% of local festival attendees <a href="http://www.edinburghfestivalcity.com/about/edinburgh-festivals-2015-impact-study">agreeing recently</a> that the festivals increased their pride in the city and positively influenced their attendance at other cultural events the year round. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133165/original/image-20160804-484-1tu8911.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133165/original/image-20160804-484-1tu8911.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133165/original/image-20160804-484-1tu8911.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133165/original/image-20160804-484-1tu8911.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133165/original/image-20160804-484-1tu8911.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133165/original/image-20160804-484-1tu8911.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133165/original/image-20160804-484-1tu8911.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133165/original/image-20160804-484-1tu8911.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smile people!</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Edinburgh Napier University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Future proofing</h2>
<p>So what’s the secret? Apart from the benefits of being a beautiful historic city that is small enough to navigate easily, much can be put down to these separate festivals working together – with support from the <a href="http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk">city council</a> and the Scottish <a href="http://www.scottish-enterprise.com">development</a>, <a href="https://www.visitscotland.com">tourism</a> and <a href="http://www.creativescotland.com/">arts</a> agencies. They carried out the festivals’ <a href="http://www.edinburghfestivalcity.com/assets/000/000/340/SQW_Economic_Impact_Summer_-_01.12.04_original.pdf?1411036230">first economic impact study</a> in 2004 in recognition of the rise of competitors such as <a href="https://www.sxsw.com">South by South West</a> in Texas; and all the festivals at <a href="http://www.montreal.com/tourism/festivals/">Quartier des Spectacles</a> in Montreal. </p>
<p>Next came a £75m investment in the city’s arts infrastructure: refurbishing the Usher Hall, Assembly Rooms and Kings Theatre; an extension for the Festival Theatre and new stands and seating for the Tattoo on the esplanade of Edinburgh Castle. Following a <a href="http://www.scottisharts.org.uk/resources/publications/research/pdf/RES21%20Thundering%20Hooves%20Executive%20Summary.pdf">strategic review</a> in 2006, the festivals then formed an umbrella organisation, <a href="http://www.edinburghfestivalcity.com/about">Festivals Edinburgh</a>, which has helped them collaborate in things like marketing and lobbying. This is one reason for the <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14539834.Edinburgh_Airport_reveals_plans_for_new_flight_paths/">rise in air routes</a> to and from the city. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-27159614">More traumatic</a> has been the birth of the tram network, though one line has finally opened. </p>
<p>The August offering has also benefited from the Fringe’s ad-hoc approach to growth. The Fringe is not managed in a traditional sense but through an open-access ethos that allows anyone to register as a performer in its programme provided they can secure a suitable venue. It is a story of <a href="http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/8479/">organic growth</a> helping to create an iconic and trusted brand that has <a href="https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:327327/UQ327327_OA.pdf">arguably</a> become synonymous with the city itself. The name has even been adopted by other arts festivals like <a href="https://www.adelaidefringe.com.au">Adelaide</a>, <a href="http://www.vancouverfringe.com">Vancouver</a> and <a href="http://www.fringefest.com/festival/whats-on">Dublin</a> as a marker for alternative cutting-edge arts and open-access programming. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133166/original/image-20160804-505-x8f74l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133166/original/image-20160804-505-x8f74l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133166/original/image-20160804-505-x8f74l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133166/original/image-20160804-505-x8f74l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133166/original/image-20160804-505-x8f74l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133166/original/image-20160804-505-x8f74l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133166/original/image-20160804-505-x8f74l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133166/original/image-20160804-505-x8f74l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fringe benefits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Edinburgh Napier University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Edinburgh is also seen as a vital destination for countries looking to improve their own arts festivals. The <a href="http://www.fringeworldcongress.com">Fringe World Congress</a> held its inaugural meeting in the city in 2012 to bring together Fringe directors and organisers, while the <a href="https://www.britishcouncil.org/cultural-skills-unit/projects/international-festivals-academy">British Council Edinburgh International Festivals Academy</a> launched in the city this year to share best practice for festivals. </p>
<h2>Glitch management</h2>
<p>None of this is to say that everything has proceeded perfectly in Edinburgh, of course. The Film Festival encountered <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2011/jun/20/edinburgh-film-festival-what-went-wrong">severe difficulties</a> in 2011, for instance, while the Fringe had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2009/aug/23/edinburgh-fringe-festival-box-office">major issues</a> with its box office system in 2008. </p>
<p>Numerous competitors are <a href="http://mediacentre.visitscotland.org/pressreleases/thundering-hooves-2-0-launched-1164950">also growing strongly</a>. For example the biennial <a href="http://www.mif.co.uk">Manchester International Festival</a> in England, which has focused exclusively on new artists since it launched in 2007, <a href="http://www.manchester.gov.uk/info/200109/council_news/7080/manchester_people_-_october_issue/6">saw a 5% rise</a> in attendance figures in 2015. Manchester is also investing heavily in venues such as The Factory for the future. Venice’s Biennale festival is another event that <a href="http://www.labiennale.org/en/biennale/history/">is seeing</a> strong growth. </p>
<p>Though these are much smaller and narrower than Edinburgh’s offering, the Scottish capital will undoubtedly continue to track them in its efforts to stay ahead. If it does this and the festivals keep working well as a group, Edinburgh will remain a world leader in staging international arts events.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63460/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Now in its 70th year, the Scottish capital’s arts spectacular is almost as big as the Olympics.Kenneth Wardrop, Visiting Research Fellow, Edinburgh Napier UniversityAnna Leask, Professor of Tourism Management, Edinburgh Napier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/529572016-04-07T00:34:33Z2016-04-07T00:34:33ZLessons in living heritage from Tokyo to Adelaide<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/116571/original/image-20160329-17832-swuvhy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The size and pace of activity in Tokyo can be overwhelming, but at the human scale the city has an incredibly rich layering of experiences built over generations.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Architects, urban planners and government policymakers often aspire to make Australian cities <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08111140903108572?journalCode=cupr20">more like Copenhagen</a>. But, for issues of heritage and conservation, we could broaden our view and learn a lot from Japan.</p>
<p>When you think about Japan, you probably think of cherry blossom, kimonos, sashimi, sumo, gardens, bathhouses, neon lights or space-age toilets. What you might not think about is the rich and complex layering in Japanese cities.</p>
<h2>In support of organic evolution</h2>
<p>Tokyo is a city that most visitors remember as being bustling, if not overwhelming, in every sense of the word. The pace is frenetic. People are packed together like sardines.</p>
<p>But, at the human scale, Tokyo has an incredibly rich layering of experiences. </p>
<p>The towers of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinjuku">Shinjuku</a> sit alongside the tightly packed informal streets that inspired the movie Bladerunner. Tourist meccas and shopping malls co-exist with open street markets and questionable boutiques. Pockets of traditional houses sit in a strange tension with the megastructures of the heaving metropolis.</p>
<p>The complexity of Tokyo has emerged organically; it could not have been designed. Master planning has a place, because a city needs structures and guidelines for development. But, like planting a seed instead of designing the flower, accepting that cities can evolve organically means that they won’t bow to the will of a single architect or reflect just one moment in time.</p>
<p>The constant state of flux denies the singular and encourages the pastiche. Working in flux requires a shift to thinking of cities as organisms rather than as objects in need of completion. This shift allows each generation to add their chapter to the story, rather than constantly trying to “finish” it.</p>
<h2>Weighing ‘progress’ against ‘heritage’</h2>
<p>Adelaide is in many ways the opposite of an organic city. It was planned according to a <a href="http://www.amw.org.au/register/listings/william-light-collection">regimented grid</a> that permits little deviance. However, it has organically retained many heritage buildings and a range of architectural styles. </p>
<p>While we might like to think of this as deliberate, much of this preservation arguably happened as a result of South Australia’s <a href="http://www.britannica.com/place/South-Australia/Government-and-society#toc42542">comparatively slow economic growth</a>.</p>
<p>The phenomenon of buildings being protected by economic rationalism rather than cultural idealism is amplified in Japan. Many of Japan’s most interesting urban areas are full of seemingly mismatched buildings, which combine to tell a complex story of their place. </p>
<p>While these areas are celebrated for their diversity and historical significance, many remain because of cancelled construction projects (during the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)">economic contraction of the 1990s</a>) rather than a deliberate preservation agenda.</p>
<p>Economic growth is not necessarily bad for heritage, and Adelaide doesn’t need another <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/inside-the-state-bank-collapse-of-1991-that-crippled-south-australia/news-story/c1db0600ac89985cdd126315dbbc20fb">State Bank collapse</a>. But historically slow growth has left the city with a built environment of incredible cultural value.</p>
<p>Adelaide’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Terrace,_Adelaide">North Terrace</a> strip is an obvious example of this. Yet, much like Melbourne in neighbouring Victoria, the South Australian capital is starting to see the value of some of its “less beautiful” parts. The transformation of unloved buildings into thriving small bars demonstrates how buildings of little economic value can have immense urban and cultural value.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117434/original/image-20160405-13530-zodo28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117434/original/image-20160405-13530-zodo28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/117434/original/image-20160405-13530-zodo28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117434/original/image-20160405-13530-zodo28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117434/original/image-20160405-13530-zodo28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117434/original/image-20160405-13530-zodo28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117434/original/image-20160405-13530-zodo28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/117434/original/image-20160405-13530-zodo28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">While economic hardship largely explains why Adelaide’s North Terrace (pictured here circa 1940) has been well preserved, it is now treasured as the city’s living heritage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Terrace,_Adelaide#/media/File:North_Terrace,_Adelaide,_1940.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Thinking in terms of living heritage</h2>
<p>Instead of ascribing value to buildings simply because they are old or rundown, we need to develop a way of assessing and understanding value. “Living heritage” is a concept that encourages us to think more deeply about the value of buildings through the contribution they make to their surroundings.</p>
<p>Since Marcel Duchamp put a urinal in a gallery and <a href="http://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/duchamp-fountain-t07573">called it art</a>, we have understood that objects are defined by their surroundings as much as by their own design. In a living heritage evaluation, the role of a building in defining and anchoring its context can be as important as its stylistic details.</p>
<p>Buildings normally represent a single moment in time, but the urban environments around them continually evolve. If we understand the contribution a building is making to the story of its surroundings, we can make decisions that go beyond preserving historical facades to foster opportunities to protect, and add to, the stories and layers of the past.</p>
<p>To take this concept further, we could considering whether the ardent preservation of streetscapes as museum pieces is actually holding back the development of cultural identity. Perhaps rather than trying to freeze parts of our cities as examples of the past, we could look at supporting appropriately designed (and scaled) new developments. If done well, these interventions build on and enhance the cultural narrative of place.</p>
<p>Heritage will always be a complex issue, but our understanding needs to go beyond aesthetics to consider cultural (and environmental) dimensions. Contemporary architectural interventions are challenging for any urban area. </p>
<p>But if carefully crafted, good architecture can create an abstract continuity that adds a new layer to the story of a place without compromising its identity and integrity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52957/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aaron Davis travelled to Japan with a grant from The Rymill House Trust Fund to investigate the concept of 'living heritage'.</span></em></p>The concept of living heritage can help us make decisions that go beyond preserving historical facades to protect and add to, rather than freeze, the stories and layers of the past.Aaron Davis, PhD Candidate in Architecture, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/388522015-03-23T01:53:13Z2015-03-23T01:53:13ZAdelaide is spending big on arts infrastructure – but who benefits?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75329/original/image-20150319-1597-j3tpi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With car manufacturing gone and the submarine business looking shaky, South Australia is a state in need of an industrial transfusion. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">HASSELL</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Somewhere in a private collection are Don Dunstan’s pink shorts. It says a lot about the standing of South Australia’s legendary premier that relics of his clothing are kept for veneration (sorry, “research”). But the whole of downtown Adelaide is a reminder of his dream of a city uniting its past with its future, its industry with its leisure, its secular with its spiritual self. </p>
<p>And without doubt the centrepiece is the Adelaide Festival Centre, opened in 1973, a few months before the Sydney Opera House, and no less iconic:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75339/original/image-20150319-1607-14el0uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75339/original/image-20150319-1607-14el0uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75339/original/image-20150319-1607-14el0uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75339/original/image-20150319-1607-14el0uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75339/original/image-20150319-1607-14el0uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75339/original/image-20150319-1607-14el0uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75339/original/image-20150319-1607-14el0uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75339/original/image-20150319-1607-14el0uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">HASSELL</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The riverbank location of the Festival Centre offers one of the best city views in Australia. To the north, the river Torrens winds out of sight. Below, sits Elder Park. The opening night of the 2015 Adelaide Festival, held there, included fireworks and the launch of <a href="http://www.adelaidefestival.com.au/2015/visual_arts/blinc">Blinc</a>, an outdoor exhibition:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>of unprecedented scale and significance, that transform[ed] [the] surrounds into a giant spectacular outdoor digital art gallery. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>It attracted a large and diverse audience who ran through the nooks and crannies of the Festival Centre to check out digital displays in 11 locations, including the concrete shells of the massive roof. </p>
<p>This was Dunstan’s vision for South Australia: “the Festival State”. And while it has modified in particulars since the kaftan-and-key-party-era, it remains a compelling way of seeing a region that has done the hard yards in recent years.</p>
<p>Last week’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-15/adelaide-festival-centre-to-be-upgraded-as-part-of-plaza-plan/6320672">announcement</a> by Premier Jay Weatherill of A$90 million in government funding for a Festival Centre and plaza redevelopment should be seen as a continuation of that vision. </p>
<p>The plan, which includes a revamped Convention Centre, a 24-storey office tower, a new 1,000-space carpark and a mooted casino redevelopment, is designed to “to better leverage [the] riverbank location”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75334/original/image-20150319-1572-wczg29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75334/original/image-20150319-1572-wczg29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75334/original/image-20150319-1572-wczg29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75334/original/image-20150319-1572-wczg29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75334/original/image-20150319-1572-wczg29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75334/original/image-20150319-1572-wczg29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75334/original/image-20150319-1572-wczg29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75334/original/image-20150319-1572-wczg29.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Now …</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">HASSELL</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75335/original/image-20150319-1600-o05poi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75335/original/image-20150319-1600-o05poi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75335/original/image-20150319-1600-o05poi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75335/original/image-20150319-1600-o05poi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75335/original/image-20150319-1600-o05poi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75335/original/image-20150319-1600-o05poi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75335/original/image-20150319-1600-o05poi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75335/original/image-20150319-1600-o05poi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">… And in the future. An artist’s impression of the development.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">HASSELL</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It comes off the back of a recent upgrade to the Adelaide Oval – A$535 million committed by the government in 2009, with final costs around A$<a href="http://indaily.com.au/news/2014/05/07/oval-costs-wrap-610m/">610M</a> – and the new River Torrens Riverbank Precinct Pedestrian Bridge. </p>
<h2>Hard at work on the riverbank</h2>
<p>But bureaucrats have been hard at work on this site for a while. In 2013, Weatherill announced a <a href="http://www.hawkerbritton.com/images/data/Adelaide%20Riverbank%20Development%20and%20RAH%20site%20%2827%20June%202013%29%282%29.pdf">Greater Riverbank Implementation Plan</a>. And before that, in 2010, the Rann government released a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehat6ygK13I">fly-through of <em>their</em> plans</a> for the precinct. </p>
<p>Some things fall apart. Others fall down. Herein lies the pressing need for building renovation. As anyone who has recently used the Festival Centre’s toilets might guess, there hasn’t been significant investment in its facilities since the 1970s. </p>
<p>Its management are no doubt both pleased and relieved they finally have the money to improve the centre’s façade, playing spaces and technical equipment, as well as create new entrances on the riverbank side. </p>
<p>“The whole precinct redevelopment will provide a sweeping multi-purpose plaza seamlessly linking Elder Park and the Riverbank Footbridge to the Adelaide Railway Station and North Terrace,” the Chair, Michael Abbott, <a href="http://www.adelaidefestivalcentre.com.au/about-us/blog-home/major-redevelopment/">recently wrote</a>. As is to be expected, some of the main users of the Festival Centre – the State Theatre, the Adelaide Symphony Orchestra and the Adelaide Festival – are enthusiastic in their support.</p>
<p>You can <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/video/id-pqNGZsZjo9U9BzJOBT1LisJZWMDF4JlL/The-new-Adelaide:-how-it%27s-going-to-look">take a virtual tour</a> and get a sense of how the new plaza and its surroundings might look. It’s potentially a clever piece of private-public partnering, the state government working with the developer Lang Walker to “unlock” capacity in the site. </p>
<p>More infrastructure spending means a new carpark, which means a new casino, which means more revenue, which means more infrastructure spending – and so on. </p>
<p>What all this will cost bounces up and down like a squash ball. A rumoured A$1 billion figure <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/billionaire-property-developer-lang-walker-has-800m-plan-to-redevelop-festival-centre-precinct/story-fni6uo1m-1226915181773">quickly reduced</a> to A$800 million-plus, with the Walker Corp contributing A$430 million, and another A$350 million to be privately sourced for the casino development. </p>
<h2>Who benefits from this redevelopment?</h2>
<p>A major concern is striking a balance between public and private use. </p>
<p>Tim Horton, the former Integrated Design commissioner, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-15/adelaide-festival-centre-to-be-upgraded-as-part-of-plaza-plan/6320672">commented</a> that the current plan is “tripling the retail, it doubles the commercial and it seemingly halves the public space”. Maybe. But the wilderness of shabby concrete that comprises the plaza now requires re-imagining. </p>
<p>The devil is in the detail, and the public consultations that will take place are something all Adeladians, be they culture buffs, sports fans, shopaholics or riverbank strollers, should take seriously.</p>
<p>But as the rhetorical dust settles two broad points can be made in respect of what is being called, non-ironically, “the master plan”. The first is that while creating precincts is fun, how they will be used also requires thought. With car manufacturing gone and the submarine business looking shaky, South Australia is a state in need of an industrial transfusion. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75330/original/image-20150319-1600-1lmpi4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75330/original/image-20150319-1600-1lmpi4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75330/original/image-20150319-1600-1lmpi4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=231&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75330/original/image-20150319-1600-1lmpi4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=231&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75330/original/image-20150319-1600-1lmpi4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=231&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75330/original/image-20150319-1600-1lmpi4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75330/original/image-20150319-1600-1lmpi4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75330/original/image-20150319-1600-1lmpi4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Now.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">HASSELL</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75332/original/image-20150319-1577-19gsxxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75332/original/image-20150319-1577-19gsxxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75332/original/image-20150319-1577-19gsxxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=231&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75332/original/image-20150319-1577-19gsxxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=231&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75332/original/image-20150319-1577-19gsxxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=231&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75332/original/image-20150319-1577-19gsxxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75332/original/image-20150319-1577-19gsxxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75332/original/image-20150319-1577-19gsxxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An artist’s impression of the future development.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">HASSELL</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tourism and visitor numbers are a serious matter here, and part of the attraction of the plaza redevelopment is it will give interstaters somewhere to come to and provide for events they might want to see. But how will this work exactly? </p>
<p>How will the users of the revamped venues use the venues? Will they be accessible? Will they be affordable? What portion will be assigned for “home” use, what portion for outside events? </p>
<p>Does it matter? Yes it does, if Adelaide isn’t to become a giant shop window for other people’s culture; if it is to have an artistic heart of its own.</p>
<p>The second point relates to the dark art of economic forecasting. The claim has been made that the redevelopment project will add 1% to South Australia’s GDP. Urban Development Minister John Rau <a href="http://www.tourism.sa.gov.au/media/vibrant-new-look-for-festival-plaza.aspx">says</a> that it “is expected to create more than 2,500 construction jobs with an estimated 400 ongoing jobs”.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Alec Gilbert, the chief executive of the Adelaide Convention Centre, has <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/convention-centre-reinvention-a-73-million-annual-boost-for-sa/story-e6frg6n6-1227261154381">added</a> that the renovation of his own facilities alone will create “an additional $73 million of economic activity per year […] going forward for the next 25 years”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75337/original/image-20150319-1607-1kv55l7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75337/original/image-20150319-1607-1kv55l7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75337/original/image-20150319-1607-1kv55l7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75337/original/image-20150319-1607-1kv55l7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75337/original/image-20150319-1607-1kv55l7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75337/original/image-20150319-1607-1kv55l7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75337/original/image-20150319-1607-1kv55l7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75337/original/image-20150319-1607-1kv55l7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Now.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">HASSELL</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75338/original/image-20150319-1572-16n8wjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75338/original/image-20150319-1572-16n8wjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75338/original/image-20150319-1572-16n8wjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75338/original/image-20150319-1572-16n8wjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75338/original/image-20150319-1572-16n8wjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75338/original/image-20150319-1572-16n8wjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75338/original/image-20150319-1572-16n8wjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75338/original/image-20150319-1572-16n8wjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An artist’s impression of the development.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">HASSELL</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Warning, warning: economic impact studies fast approaching. Faced with mustering support for proposals from the big end of town, the temptation will be for the government to invoke screeds of figures and tables to give its planning economic credence. </p>
<p>It is a temptation worth resisting. One only has to look at the way cost-benefit analysis has been manipulated by spruikers of the Melbourne Grand Prix to realise that political decisions should not be dressed up as economic ones. </p>
<p>Risk must not be confused with indeterminacy. Even Alec Gilbert does not know what the South Australian economy will look like in 25 years’ time. Not only does spurious econometricising fail to provide hard evidence for policy making, it undermines public trust in important assessment methodologies, and makes Australians cynical about all figures that are presented.</p>
<p>In fact, despite cries of “where will the money come from?”, this is less a moment for numbers than for narratives. What is the story of Adelaide going forward? What does the plaza redevelopment say about the kind of city we want to be? </p>
<p>This narrative needs to be inclusive, realistic and inspiring. It also needs to be honest. Both the Premier and the state have an opportunity to reconnect with Dunstan’s vision and refashion it for today’s tastes and needs. </p>
<p>It is the story the state government tells around the plaza redevelopment that will attract people to the country’s most <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/adelaide-the-countrys-most-liveable-city-20130303-2ffeh.html">liveable</a> city, either as residents or as visitors. And not just during “Mad March” but throughout the year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38852/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Meyrick is Strategic Professor of Creative Arts at Flinders University. He is part of a team that receives federal funding for the ARC Linkage grant project Laboratory Adelaide: the Value of Culture. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tully Barnett is a Research Fellow at Flinders University. She is part of a team that receives federal funding for the ARC Linkage grant project Laboratory Adelaide: The Value of Culture.</span></em></p>Last week the South Australian premier announced major refurbishment of the Adelaide Festival Centre. The question is, what will these major works say about the kind of city Adelaide wants to be?Julian Meyrick, Professor of Creative Arts, Flinders UniversityTully Barnett, Research Fellow, School of Humanities, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/359182015-01-08T19:24:56Z2015-01-08T19:24:56ZBushfires kill, but knowing exactly how might make them less deadly<p>The latest round of bushfires, which claimed <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-08/adelaide-hills-bushfire-rain-helps-ease-threat/6005774">27 homes in the Adelaide Hills</a>, has once again highlighted the importance of planning for the worst. Mercifully, no human lives were lost, and it will be important to learn whatever lessons we can to avoid future tragedies.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901113002074">analysed 825 deaths in 260 Australian bushfires from 1901 to 2011</a>, and our research has revealed some compelling evidence to help guide residents to plan for future bushfires.</p>
<p>Most people (58%) lost their lives when caught out in the open. Strikingly, 72% of those people were within 200 m of their own homes (this statistic is based only on cases where details are accurately known). </p>
<p>I encourage you to imagine what circumstances and decisions might have led to these outcomes. Do a large number of people simply wait to see if the fire is really going to arrive on their doorstep?</p>
<p>Bushfire deaths within a house are most prevalent during our most severe fire events, representing 75% of all fatalities during bushfires that occurred on days with <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire">“catastrophic” (code red) fire danger conditions</a>. This is despite them representing only 27% of all bushfire deaths. </p>
<p>Of those who died inside homes, 92% were in rooms that did not have a door that led directly to the exterior of the house (once again, this is based only on cases where circumstances are accurately known). This raises uncomfortable questions: why did these people apparently not try to leave the home as the house fire developed? Were they monitoring the conditions outside as the fire passed? Had they thought about which exit was the safest? </p>
<h2>Homes under attack</h2>
<p>When a fire arrives at a property, the house will experience “<a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/kids-schools/secondary-schools/interactive/accessible.htm">ember attack</a>”. This attack is strongest as the main fire arrives and will persist for a long time after it has passed, and may also start to happen before the fire actually arrives. If the house is close enough to the bush it may also be affected by radiant heat, and if very close then direct flame contact is possible, although most houses are lost without any direct interaction from a bushfire front – which goes some way to account for the seemingly random loss patterns that occur.</p>
<p>Given the timing and intensity of ember attack, it is no surprise that our <a href="http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/life-and-house-loss-database-description-and-analysis">data</a> show that houses can ignite before, during, and after a fire front’s passage – with the most likely time being during and immediately after the fire front has passed. </p>
<p>For the relatively small number of houses that ignite before the fire front arrives, the occupants may be faced with life-threatening conditions both inside and outside at the same time. There are also a few cases were houses are built so close to the bush or other combustible elements that even the low-level fire that persists after the main fire front has passed is too intense to survive outside. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, for the vast majority of homes that burn in bushfires, it is likely that at any given time, conditions would be survivable either inside or outside the house. That means that, with the right strategy, lives should not be lost.</p>
<h2>Designing a lifesaving strategy</h2>
<p>It is interesting to note that the <a href="http://www.as3959.com.au/">current building codes for bushfire-prone areas</a> include specific fire weather severity limits beyond which these standards may no longer be effective. The standards aim to reduce the risk that a building will catch fire, but they also rule out any guarantee that it won’t. The code also doesn’t address the issues of how fast burning homes might succumb, or of how to provide a safe or effective exit path from the building.</p>
<p>So even if your bushland home is fully up to code, you need to plan for a wide range of scenarios. Fire agencies across Australia have stressed the importance for people living in bushfire-prone areas to develop a <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0017/2933/BushFireSurvivalPlan.pdf">fire survival plan</a>, and your local fire agency is the best place to start on developing a plan and educating yourself about the specific local fire conditions you might face. </p>
<p>Once a plan has been developed I encourage residents to test their fire plan by checking whether it answers the following questions:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>At what level of forecast fire weather severity will you retreat to a non-bushfire-prone area for the day?</p></li>
<li><p>Do you understand the local potential fire severity for weather conditions below this level? </p></li>
<li><p>For any given circumstances, what are the signs or triggers that indicate that it is no longer safe to evacuate to a non-bushfire prone area? For some isolated communities this will be when fire weather severity passes a certain level; for other, less isolated residents it will be when they are no longer certain that the roads are moving freely and fire will not impact their travel route.</p></li>
<li><p>What and where is your personal protective equipment and firefighting tools?</p></li>
<li><p>Is the property free from combustible items under or adjacent to the home?</p></li>
<li><p>Is the home in an acceptable state of repair to survive a bushfire?</p></li>
<li><p>Which areas would be the safest external location to move to if it becomes impossible to stay in the house?</p></li>
<li><p>Does the path leading to this cleared area involve walking over or past combustible elements such as vehicles and decking?</p></li>
<li><p>How do I monitor all rooms and cavity areas of the home for signs of ignition of fire development inside the house?</p></li>
<li><p>What do you have on hand to monitor and put out these fires (stored water, ladders to monitor internal roof space, etc.)? </p></li>
<li><p>If you can’t put them out, which exit path is the most appropriate?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>And remember:</p>
<p>A deep understanding of the nature of bushfire threat is your best tool in assessing and managing your own risk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35918/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Leonard has performed various government and non-government funded research as an employee of CSIRO.</span></em></p>The latest round of bushfires, which claimed 27 homes in the Adelaide Hills, has once again highlighted the importance of planning for the worst. Mercifully, no human lives were lost, and it will be important…Justin Leonard, Team Leader, Bushfire Urban Design, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/352052015-01-05T19:23:46Z2015-01-05T19:23:46ZBad luck, Brisbane: muggy cities will feel future heat even more<p>Several Australian cities, such as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-01/south-australia-to-swelter-as-heat-spell-looms/5995690">Adelaide</a> and <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/heat-warning-as-temperatures-in-perth-forecast-to-soar-to-41c/story-fnhocxo3-1227174069845?nk=c20318fc5326e96c7db65d276cba3cb3">Perth</a>, have greeted 2015 with scorching weather as summer hits its stride – the kind of conditions that leave us crying out for an air conditioner, rather than dreaming of barbeques and beach trips. </p>
<p>Yet new research shows that Australians could end up feeling even hotter than expected over the next few decades, as changing weather conditions make climate change feel even more severe than it is. That’s bad news for Sydney and Brisbane, where sweltering humidity is set to rise. </p>
<p>In contrast, freshening summer winds in Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne could grant residents some relief by mitigating the apparent effects of rising temperatures. The mercury will still rise, but perhaps it won’t feel quite as sweltering as we would expect.</p>
<h2>Feeling the heat</h2>
<p>Days upon days of extreme heat make us feel irritable, uncomfortable and, in the worst cases, unable to cool down at all. Stifling conditions during the day, with no relief at night, place <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-heat-can-make-your-body-melt-down-from-the-inside-out-22042">physical stress on our bodies</a>. During heatwaves, vulnerable citizens such as the elderly, young children and the physically ill have a higher risk of adverse health effects. In some cases the stress can become too much, resulting in death.</p>
<p>In January 2009, a week before the devastating Black Saturday bushfires, <a href="http://docs.health.vic.gov.au/docs/doc/F7EEA4050981101ACA257AD80074AE8B/$FILE/heat_health_impact_rpt_Vic2009.pdf">374 people</a> lost their lives as a result of heat-related stress during a three-day record heatwave in Melbourne. This was more than twice the number that died during the fires. Despite the implementation of <a href="http://docs.health.vic.gov.au/docs/doc/479050E85C879831CA257D8C0015FD87/$FILE/Heat%20health%20alert%20system_guidance%202014%20-%202015.pdf">heatwave alert systems</a> in some Australian cities, many people are still vulnerable. An estimated <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-13/january-victorian-heatwave-deaths-up-24-per-cent/5810176">167 people</a> lost their lives during Melbourne’s heatwave in January 2014.</p>
<h2>Keep your cool</h2>
<p>The human body’s ability to withstand heat stress depends on being able to shed excess heat, often through sweating, to keep our core temperature at an optimal 37C. Very warm outdoor temperatures, or excessive exposure to the sun, heat our bodies. However, shedding that heat depends not only on the surrounding air temperature, but also on factors such as humidity and wind speed, both of which affect our ability to sweat effectively. </p>
<p>This can mean that the heat we think we feel is not necessarily the same as the air temperature we measure. That’s why a 35C day in Brisbane can feel so much worse than a 35C day in Melbourne!</p>
<p>Taking account of these factors allows meteorologists to predict what the weather conditions will “feel like” to an average person. For example, the Bureau of Meteorology uses a measure called the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/info/thermal_stress/">apparent temperature</a>. Measuring weather conditions in this way provides a better idea of when conditions are dangerous to health, so that appropriate warnings can be issued.</p>
<h2>Which cities will fare the best?</h2>
<p>Many recent studies show that <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-council-heatwaves-are-getting-hotter-and-more-frequent-23253">extreme heat is increasing</a> around Australia, <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-hands-are-all-over-australias-hottest-ever-year-32267">mostly as a result of human-induced climate change</a>. But are we actually feeling any hotter? <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113001343">Recent work</a> by one of us (S.J.) showed that alongside the increase in air temperature, the apparent temperature (how we feel), has also changed across Australia. </p>
<p>In Sydney and Brisbane, the apparent temperature has increased by 1C since the 1950s, but the actual temperature has only increased by 0.5C. This means that what felt like 29C in the 1950s now feels like over 30C, on average. This is because the humidity has increased and it is slightly less windy on average in both locations. These muggier conditions make the weather feel hotter, as the body is unable to shed excess heat as effectively.</p>
<p>Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne fared better. Although, on average, it is nearly 1C warmer now than in the 1950s, people in these cities may not actually feel warmer. This is because it is also typically windier, so sweat can evaporate more effectively when it is hot, making us feel cooler than the real temperature suggests. </p>
<p>The largest trends in apparent temperature were found in Western Australia, with the Pilbara and the Wheatbelt hit hardest. In these regions, what felt like 38C in the late 1970s now feels like 41C, on average, potentially increasing the risk of heat stress to miners and farmers alike.</p>
<h2>It’s getting hot in here</h2>
<p>In the future, Australian heatwaves will likely become <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-angry-more-often-march-heatwave-signals-a-new-normal-13068">hotter, longer and more frequent</a> as the climate changes. But what are the consequences for the risk of heat stress?</p>
<p>Future changes in apparent temperature are somewhat uncertain. While we are confident of the forthcoming increases in temperature, we are less certain about how humidity and wind will change. Regardless, the data suggest that apparent temperatures will increase in most Australian regions – so wherever you are, it’s likely you’ll feel the rise in temperatures. </p>
<p>But the speed of the perceived warming is also important if humans are to adapt. If things get too hot to handle too quickly, communities will have little time to adjust, resulting in a dangerous situation for health.</p>
<p>The largest changes will be in Australia’s southeast, where climate models suggest that for the millions of people in Melbourne and Sydney, future summers will feel like they are warming even faster than the real temperature suggests, because of an increase in humid days. Residents in these cities will therefore be at a higher risk of heat stress when a heatwave strikes. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, in the southwest, Perth’s drying climate will act to slow the rate of perceived warming, enabling residents to adapt more easily to the new conditions. </p>
<p>Human-induced climate change is happening and we are already starting to feel the effects. Coping with the infamous Australian summer is already difficult, but in the future it might become even more stressful for some.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Jacobs receives funding from the Cooperative Research Centre for Water Sensitive Cities. She is affiliated with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ailie Gallant receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Several Australian cities, such as Adelaide and Perth, have greeted 2015 with scorching weather as summer hits its stride – the kind of conditions that leave us crying out for an air conditioner, rather…Stephanie Jacobs, PhD candidate, Monash UniversityAilie Gallant, ARC DECRA Fellow, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.