tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/baleka-mbete-40030/articlesBaleka Mbete – The Conversation2018-02-28T12:45:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/922202018-02-28T12:45:55Z2018-02-28T12:45:55ZRamaphosa: a performer and a politician, with buckets of charm<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207855/original/file-20180226-140178-ciar9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's new president Cyril Ramaphosa combines easy charm with shrewdness. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cyril Ramaphosa has had to tread a fine line in moving from the role of negotiator to that of South Africa’s new president. The man who helped the country navigate a peaceful transition from apartheid to inclusive democracy now has to appear “<a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/what-does-it-mean-to-be-presidential">presidential</a>”, as the Americans like to call it.</p>
<p>In the US this is popularly taken to mean the twin superficialities of “<a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/does-the-tallest-presidential-candidate-win-3367512">height and hair</a>” – taller and better looking candidates have fared better. But in a country like South Africa, the demands are far more diverse as well as culturally specific.</p>
<p>So what makes a successful presidential performance in South Africa?</p>
<p>I would argue that, just as performance is not limited to action on a stage, performance theory can help us critique more than simply an actor’s work. If they’re successful, politicians are consummate performers and politics is often by turn a circus, a tragedy and a spectacle. That one sees the script behind the actor’s lines, the direction strategy behind the staging, is no bad thing. Rather – in all things – we should judge Ramaphosa on his delivery.</p>
<p>Within this framework, we can see that South Africa’s past presidents have performed different styles of leadership with varying degrees of success. The late former President Nelson Mandela was known for his shuffling dancing as much as his leadership qualities; stiffly cerebral Thabo Mbeki was out in the cold, no matter how intellectual his rhetoric and policy; and Jacob Zuma was known for his trademark song, laugh and dance moves despite his manifest lack of other leadership qualities.</p>
<p>Against this standard, how has Ramaphosa fared in his first weeks as president of the country?</p>
<p>The man has easy charm: buckets of it. He’s also shrewd. He has a performer’s awareness of the room, but a politician’s understanding of the moment. That combination will serve him on the South African stage.</p>
<h2>Case in point</h2>
<p>Look at his very first parliamentary addresses. In both his initial speech after inauguration and the formal state of the nation address, Ramaphosa broke from script. He grinned. He laughed. Not a Zuma <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP4zGwe2jFg">“hehehe”</a>, but a hearty, good-natured chuckle. At once disarming but also open to (mis)interpretation, <a href="http://www.702.co.za/articles/9773/zuma-s-laughter-in-parliament-makes-headline-news">a leader’s laugh is a high stakes game</a>.</p>
<p>Yet under the easy style there was plenty of hard strategy. Ramaphosa began his first address with a <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2018/02/15/watch-ramaphosa-s-first-address-in-parliament-as-sa-president">casual but pointed observation</a> about his relationship with the Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng. He laughingly suggested the latter’s position could well have been his, if not for his distaste of the onerous robing demands. </p>
<p>This reference, though framed as a joke, had two serious purposes. </p>
<p>Firstly, it demonstrated a good relationship with a Zuma-appointed Chief Justice against the backdrop of a governing party that is <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Dont-suppress-our-views-on-judiciary-Mantashe-20150709">seen as increasingly hostile towards the judiciary</a>. </p>
<p>Secondly – and more pointedly – it was a less-than-subtle reminder of Ramaphosa’s own leadership qualities and legacy that, his speech hinted, had made him a candidate for Chief Justice under a previous (his implication is, almost certainly, Mandela’s) presidency. </p>
<p>The same address – outwardly collegial, often punctuated with disarming grins – saw Ramaphosa respond individually to each opposition leader’s public comments, in nearly every case reminding them of their joint history, whether in shared university days or activist deployment. </p>
<p>In both content and delivery, then, Ramaphosa pointedly delivered a mandate for respect forged from deeply intertwined political histories.</p>
<h2>Optics</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa is also sensitive to optics. There are simply no coincidences in his presidential performance: it has proven an extremely carefully staged affair. </p>
<p>After <a href="https://twitter.com/AnnikaLarsen1/status/964001656307437569">a photograph</a> of him posing with five white women in kwik dry lycra on the Sea Point Promenade at dawn the day after Zuma’s resignation went <a href="https://www.goodthingsguy.com/fun/ramaphosa-biggest-fan/">viral</a>, his team was quick to fashion an organised event in a less affluent suburb: a Gugulethu to Athlone 5km walk at 5:30am – <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-02-20-reporters-notebook-walking-with-the-president/#.Wo6C0HyYOM8">powerwalking with the president</a>. A “man of the people” who quite literally “walks among us” is being crafted step by careful step.</p>
<p>When it comes to style, his diamond-pattern <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2018/02/15/sona-that-ramaphosas-sworn-in-parly-is-all-systems-go-for-big-address_a_23363125/">red tie debut</a> in Parliament on his inauguration clearly gestured to Zuma’s own <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2018-02-15-in-full--zumas-resignation-speech/">blood-red tie</a> in his Valentine’s Day resignation speech. In his dark purple state of the nation tie the following evening, Ramaphosa perfectly <a href="http://www.heraldlive.co.za/news/2018/02/17/ramaphosas-vow-sweep-clean/">matched the colour palette</a> of the Speaker of the House, Baleka Mbete, who walked him inside.</p>
<p>This sartorial performance meticulously played out a symbolic message: harmonious continuity in the ANC and power alliance above all. </p>
<p>Whether drawing on historical bonds or performing current alliance, Ramaphosa has employed time and tradition to work for him in these first days of office.</p>
<h2>Delivery</h2>
<p>February 2018 has seen a political performance that pulled audiences both backwards and forwards through South African timelines. Through their invocations of history’s symbolism Ramaphosa and the ANC have understandably played to almost all time periods except the precarious present. Opposition leaders who seek to meet them on those grounds may well find themselves outplayed. Rather, they would do well to resolutely bring attention to the slippages of the past month – the incongruencies and sacrifices demanded of the present transition.</p>
<p>One such slippage was manifestly on display at the announcement of the cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday night. With the press conference delayed twice after an already last-minute announcement, it was patently clear from his less ebullient demeanour at the outset that the <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1781626/anc-wants-a-new-culture-of-being-on-time-ramaphosa/">famously punctual</a> Ramaphosa was displeased. </p>
<p>Starting with a laugh and feigned surprise at the press turnout, Ramaphosa <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCHzW0ZfQ9o">initially performed</a> the same easy charm on display throughout the previous weeks. Yet once into the meat of the announcement, Ramaphosa’s delivery became stiffly formal, his eyes locked between the page and a single point in the room, his delivery at times stilted and dry-mouthed. </p>
<p>We can look forward to far more developments in the weeks to come. Time will tell how Ramaphosa and the ANC will pick up the playbook from here. </p>
<p>In the main, however, this moment is all Ramaphosa’s. He should command it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92220/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carla Lever has received past funding from the National Research Foundation for contributions to the South African national gender project and four year IPRS and APA funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p>What makes a successful presidential performance and does South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa stack up?Carla Lever, Research Fellow at Graduate School of Development Policy and Practice, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/897002018-01-05T10:10:05Z2018-01-05T10:10:05ZA tribute to Keorapetse Kgositsile, South Africa’s poet laureate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200901/original/file-20180105-26169-13x45ru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=63%2C196%2C3474%2C2004&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Renowned South African poet and liberation struggle hero Keorapetse Kgositsile.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sunday World/ Tshepo Kekana</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Memories of <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/keorapetse-william-kgositsile">Keorapetse Kgositsile</a> (1938-2017), or Bra Willie, as he was affectionately known, are of a poet who always had a smile on his face, who exuded gentleness, and was soft-spoken. He died on Wednesday.</p>
<p>In his schooldays Bra Willie (78) managed to get access to African American poets <a href="https://www.poets.org/poetsorg/poet/langston-hughes">Langston Hughes’</a> and <a href="http://www.english.illinois.edu/maps/poets/s_z/r_wright/wright_life.htm">Richard Wright’s</a> poems. This was no mean feat in apartheid South Africa when schools for African children either didn’t have libraries or they were poorly-stocked, and African students were denied access to literature deemed to be “seditious”. Even my “whites only” school library had no books with African-American poems, still less the apartheid English setwork books. </p>
<p>His first job was working for a 1950s left newspaper, the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/history-new-age-newspaper">New Age</a>, which had strong links to the African National Congress. The apartheid regime banned it in 1962.</p>
<p>In 1962 Kgositsile went into exile in the US. His career flourished in Harlem; he gave numerous readings at African-American jazz clubs, and graduated with a Master of Fine Arts from Columbia University.</p>
<p>Kgositsile published ten collections of poetry. The first was <a href="http://www.aaregistry.org/poetry/view/spirits-unchained-keorapetse-kgositsile">Spirits Unchained</a> (1969). Perhaps the most influential were <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6480761-my-name-is-afrika">My Name is Africa</a> (1971), <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books/about/The_Present_is_a_Dangerous_Place_to_Live.html?id=01MhAQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y">The Present is a Dangerous Place to Live</a> (1975) and <a href="https://www.abebooks.com/book-search/title/when-clouds-clear/author/keorapetse-kgositsile/">When the Clouds Clear </a> (1990). </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200906/original/file-20180105-26154-1w2jgn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200906/original/file-20180105-26154-1w2jgn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200906/original/file-20180105-26154-1w2jgn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200906/original/file-20180105-26154-1w2jgn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200906/original/file-20180105-26154-1w2jgn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1053&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200906/original/file-20180105-26154-1w2jgn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1053&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200906/original/file-20180105-26154-1w2jgn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1053&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1975 Kgositsile sacrificed his flourishing career to return to Africa to work for the ANC in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. In 1977 he founded the ANC’s Department of Education in exile, and in 1983 its <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/organisations/amandla-cultural-ensemble">Department of Arts and Culture </a> in 1983.</p>
<p>He continued to produce poetry and music, melding African and diasporic poetry influenced by jazz.</p>
<p>Kgositsile’s impact on a generation of South African left literary activists during the 1970s and 1980s was immense. Tattered photostats of his work passed from hand to hand were the samizdat of the oppressed under apartheid, which is how we learnt of his poems. </p>
<p>As soon as apartheid censorship ended in 1990, the <a href="http://www.saha.org.za/collections/the_congress_of_south_african_writers_cosaw_collection.htm">Congress of South African Writers</a> brought out a selection of his poems When the Clouds Clear. Willie returned to South Africa from exile, and was elected vice-president of the organisation.</p>
<p>Kgositsile wrote of the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/topic/june-16-soweto-youth-uprising">1976 Soweto generation</a> who revolted against apartheid, following the imposition of Afrikaans as a medium of instruction.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In our land fear is dead</p>
<p>The young are no longer young …</p>
</blockquote>
<p>South Africa’s youth reciprocated this admiration: again and again a youthful poet would recite from memory a Kgositsile poem, mimicking his voice to perfection. They enjoyed doing this to his face as much as in his absence. </p>
<p>In today’s literary establishment, none of the country’s literati command this sort of respect.</p>
<p>He was <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/keorapetse-william-kgositsile">honoured</a> with the South African Poet Laureate Prize in 2006.</p>
<p>Kgositsile won several literary awards including the Harlem Cultural Council Poetry Award and in South Africa the Herman Charles Bosman Prize, and in 2008 the <a href="http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/national-orders/order-ikhamanga-0">Order of Ikhamanga</a> (Silver) for </p>
<blockquote>
<p>excellent achievements in the field of literature and using these exceptional talents to expose the evils of the <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2018-01-03-parliament-pays-tribute-to-late-poet-and-political-activist-keorapetse-kgositsile/">system of apartheid</a>.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He was married four times. His wives included <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/person-details-fancy/668">Baleka Mbete</a>, a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2015-02-17-baleka-mbete-in-the-centre-of-the-maelstrom/#.Wk89o1WWbIU">fellow poet</a> and currently Speaker of the National Assembly. He is survived by his fourth wife, Baby Dorcas Kgositsile, as well as seven <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/south-africa/sunday-times/20180107/281543701314882">children and grandchildren</a>.</p>
<p><em>The author is a <a href="http://badilishapoetry.com/keith-gottschalk/">published poet</a></em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89700/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Gottschalk is a member of the African National Congress. </span></em></p>Keorapetse Kgositsile was made South Africa’s national poet laureate in 2006, the only person to have been given the honour.Keith Gottschalk, Political Scientist, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/823222017-08-10T17:24:47Z2017-08-10T17:24:47ZOpposition parties have found the ANC’s Achilles heel: Jacob Zuma<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181667/original/file-20170810-27688-ho88uv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Jacob Zuma celebrates winning the eighth vote of no confidence against him.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just when many thought that President Jacob Zuma’s fate was sealed, he emerged victorious against a motion of no confidence in him - for the eighth time. The fanfare associated with his expected loss was largely in sync with the increasing public discontent with his leadership.</p>
<p>On the day of the no confidence vote political parties slugged it out: the ANC was on the defensive, barraged with the opposition parties’ critique of Zuma, who is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-20/jacob-zuma-blamed-for-south-africa-s-woes">blamed for the morass</a> the country finds itself in.</p>
<p>Cautiously couched, and with an eye on winning over ANC MPs who hold the majority of seats in parliament, the opposition’s fusillade sought to <a href="https://www.jacarandafm.com/news/news/no-confidence-debate-top-10-quotes/">delink Zuma from the party</a>. This made sense as a strategy: after all the ANC has abdicated the responsibility of holding Zuma to account for far too long. In tabling yet another motion of no confidence the opposition appropriated this duty. </p>
<p>The latest motion offered the ANC a chance to make a distinction between itself and its ethically compromised president, and to reclaim its position as a leader of society. It created – albeit unwittingly – the opportunity for the ANC to repackage its sullied image. </p>
<p>But it failed to seize the moment. Instead, it settled for a Pyrrhic victory. Those faithful to Zuma took turns in their deification histrionics of political showmanship and demagoguery fixated on imagined “enemies of the state” and the illusion of <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/rdm/news/2017-08-08-zumavote-a-regime-change-agenda--anc-mps-launch-vigorous-defence-of-zuma/">“regime change” </a>. These falsehoods are peddled to deflect attention from the real dangers to the country’s democracy: a dearth of <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-needs-moral-leaders-not-those-in-pursuit-of-selfish-gain-76244">ethical leadership</a> and the <a href="http://pari.org.za/betrayal-promise-report/">capture of the state</a> under Zuma.</p>
<p>Opposition parties took advantage of this. They might not have won the vote of no confidence. But they came away emboldened for trying.</p>
<h2>Opposition parties gaining the upper hand</h2>
<p>The opposition parties are getting smarter in exploiting the ANC’s vacuous leadership. In the latest motion of no confidence debate, they managed to frame the narrative in a way that reminded ANC members about the nobility of the historical foundation of the party, and the reason for its existence. In other words, the opposition parties were teaching the ANC about the ANC.</p>
<p>This featured prominently in the <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/rdm/news/2017-08-08-zumavote-a-regime-change-agenda--anc-mps-launch-vigorous-defence-of-zuma/">speeches</a> of Democratic Alliance’s Mmusi Maimane, Economic Freedom Fighters’ Julius Malema, and United Democratic Movement leader Bantu Holomisa. </p>
<p>The danger for the ANC in not being decisive about Zuma is that, over time, the opposition parties may usurp its political capital and project themselves as genuine custodians of its foundational values. In fact, this appears to be their strategy. Some in the ANC are aware of this which probably explains why 26 of them put the public interest first and voted for the motion. </p>
<p>This is what’s required if the party is going to survive in the long term. Acting in the public interest is a strategic political investment. </p>
<p>Despite the fact that some ANC broke ranks, the motion failed to pass. Of the 384 MPs who voted, 177 said they do not have confidence in Zuma – 46% of the total votes. In all 198 (52%) maintained their confidence in Zuma, <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/08/08/zuma-survives-no-confidence-vote">while 9 (2%) abstained</a>. Statistically, the motion was lost by 6%. When abstentions are factored in, by 4%. </p>
<p>Immediately after Speaker of National Assembly Baleka Mbete ,announced the results, Zuma couldn’t wait to ascend the podium in a style reminiscent of his ascension to the <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2007-12-18-zuma-is-new-anc-president">ANC’s throne in 2007</a> after President Thabo Mbeki had earlier <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/president-thabo-mbeki-sacks-deputy-president-jacob-zuma">sacked him</a> as the Deputy President of the Republic. </p>
<h2>A victory, but at what cost</h2>
<p>It is all celebrations in the <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2017-08-08-zuma-supporters-celebrate-his-win-outa-considers-legal-action/">Zuma coterie</a>. The vote means that the network of his kindred spirits – those at the centre of the <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/download-the-full-state-of-capture-pdf-20161102">capture of the state</a> and profiting from the public purse handsomely – is protected.</p>
<p>But aren’t these celebrations about a trifle? A closer look at the votes reveals something interesting: at least 26 ANC MPs agreed with the opposition parties that Zuma should step down as the president of the Republic. The celebrations are therefore more likely to be a requiem for the possible atrophy of the ANC, whose indecisiveness makes it complicit in creating this peril.</p>
<p>Indeed, as leader of the governing party and of the country Zuma should be worried about the outcome. His legitimacy in his own party has plummeted. Coupled with the negative sentiments about him in broader society, the picture is now gloomier for the ANC. He won the vote and secured the throne. But, at what cost? </p>
<p>The outcome of the no confidence vote has laid bare a fractured ANC. Each time Zuma survives, the ANC loses the battle of regaining people’s trust. </p>
<p>The opposition parties are aware of this, and are exploiting it. Their strategic political gaze hasn’t simply been about reaching the required threshold to oust the president – after all they don’t have sufficient numbers in parliament.</p>
<p>Instead, their motions of no confidence are about obliterating the political credibility of the ANC, using Zuma’s disastrous leadership as a means to this end. They exploit, to their strategic political advantage, the increasing perception that the people of the country are being ignored and are misunderstood by the ANC government. This, in a democracy that came about as a result of the sacrifices of the people, some of whom paid the ultimate price during the liberation struggle.</p>
<p>What emerged in the debate wasn’t about the public interest. Rather it was about protecting the oligarchy. This is surreal. Parliament as the legislative authority is supposed to represent the interest of the people. Hasn’t it sunk into the political conscience of the ANC, after 23 years of its governing the country, that leadership of public affairs should always be driven by the public interest?</p>
<p>In a democracy public discontent is understood as an opportunity to listen closely to what the people want. The ANC will be punished severely at the polls if it continues to fail to understand this.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82322/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mashupye Herbert Maserumule received funding from National Research Funding(NRF). He is affiliated with the South African Association of Public Administration and Management (SAAPAM).</span></em></p>South African President Jacob Zuma, should be worried about the outcome of the no confidence vote in him. His legitimacy in the ANC and the country has plummeted.Mashupye Herbert Maserumule, Professor of Public Affairs, Tshwane University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/822732017-08-09T14:12:33Z2017-08-09T14:12:33ZWar of attrition against South Africa’s President ‘Zupta’ is in full swing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181514/original/file-20170809-23494-13lwmyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters march ahead of a vote of a no confidence against President Jacob Zuma. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first big surprise was that <a href="http://www.gov.za/about-government/leaders/profile/1044">Baleka Mbete</a>, the speaker of the National Assembly, ruled in favour of the opposition parties’ request for a <a href="http://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/2017/08/08/this-is-not-setting-a-precedent---speaker-mbete-on-zuma-secret-ballot">secret ballot</a> in the eighth vote of no confidence against the president of South Africa.</p>
<p>Writing from memory, this is the first time that this speaker’s rulings have ever gone against Luthuli House, the headquarters of the governing African National Congress <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/">(ANC)</a>, or the preference of the party’s chief whip, Jackson Mthembu. The significance is that a vote of no confidence is a three-line whip: where the caucus decision is binding on all MPs of a particular party. A secret ballot enables dissenting MPs to sidestep threats of party disciplinary action.</p>
<p>Her ruling will also recall memories that President Jacob Zuma dumped her to back <a href="http://www.enca.com/south-africa/president-publicly-endorses-nkosazana-dlamini-zuma-for-anc-leader">Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma </a> as his preferred successor. In short Mbete apparently perceives her career, as chairperson of the ANC, has nothing more to gain from remaining beholden to Zuma.</p>
<p>This is another interesting example of how Zuma’s power is unravelling.</p>
<p>Her ruling gave rise to intense media speculation about how many MPs from the ANC would vote with their conscience, as ANC MPs Pravin Gordhan and Makhosi Khoza <a href="https://www.africanewshub.com/news/7082087-pravin-gordhan-makhosi-khoza-pull-no-punches-on-zuma">had publicly urged</a>. The Economic Freedom Fighters and others in opposition claimed that they had a list of <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-07-21-malema-more-than-60-anc-mps-will-turn-on-zuma-if-there-is-a-secret-ballot/">60 ANC MPs</a> who would vote for the motion of no confidence. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/08/jacob-zuma-survives-no-confidence-vote-south-african-president">result</a> proved that they were kidding themselves.</p>
<p>The huge build-up in media hype made the result anti-climactic. Nonetheless, that there was only a margin of 21 to defeat the eighth no-confidence motion is unprecedented. It also shows the biggest erosion yet of Zuma’s support in the ANC caucus. At least 30 ANC MPs must have voted to remove Zuma from his presidency.</p>
<p>It’s not the parliamentary caucus, but the <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/content/venue-anc-54th-national-conference">ANC’s elective conference</a> which will elect Zuma’s successor in four months’ time, and its composition will be subject to fierce tussling. Still, the <a href="http://caucus.anc.org.za/">caucus</a> contains a weighty cross-section of ANC players. The shift is therefore significant in terms of the <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/rdm/politics/2017-05-19-ramaphosa-vs-dlamini-zuma-the-state-of-play-in-a-graphic/">Cyril Ramaphosa versus Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma</a> contest to replace Zuma.</p>
<h2>The power of the party</h2>
<p>Does the vote imply that a majority of ANC MPs would vote for Dlamini-Zuma as opposed to Ramaphosa? This is not clear: many ANC MPs would agree with the <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/we-still-wont-vote-against-zuma-anc-caucus-on-secret-ballot-ruling-20170622">caucus argument</a> – you cannot vote with the opposition for an opposition motion.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://thoughtundermined.com/2013/06/30/the-westminster-system-of-parliamentary-government/">Westminster-style democracies</a> a no-confidence debate is an annual fixture in the parliamentary calendar. But for a united front of opposition parties and civil society associations like Corruption Watch to organise mass <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/jonas-march-is-about-civil-society-holding-politicians-accountable-10681095">marches and demonstrations</a> outside parliament and across the country is certainly not routine. The smaller religious groups and pro-Zuma factions of the ANC who organised demonstrations <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-08-08-live-sa-braces-for-noconfidence-marches-and-vote/">against the no-confidence motion</a> show mobilisation of their groupings as well.</p>
<p>South Africa is a Westminster-derived democracy, so this situation brings precedents to mind. While votes of no confidence have not directly removed any British Prime Minister from office, one such narrow vote did lead to Tory caucus leaders telling <a href="http://www.winstonchurchill.org/resources/reference/the-british-parliamentary-system-in-the-age-of-churchill">Neville Chamberlain to step down</a> in 1940 before he was voted out. Similarly, it was Tory leaders withdrawing their support from Margaret Thatcher which <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/22/newsid_2549000/2549189.stm">compelled her to resign</a> in 1990.</p>
<p>In South Africa, the national leadership structure of major political parties such as the ANC and main opposition Democratic Alliance dominate and control their parliamentary caucuses more than in the UK or other Commonwealth countries. Their national conferences also have greater significance.</p>
<p>In view of the media coverage, it is important to emphasise that the <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/who-are-the-guptas-2080935">Gupta family conglomerate</a>, which is at the heart of <a href="http://pari.org.za/betrayal-promise-report/">state capture allegations</a>, is merely the wealthiest example of networks of <a href="http://www.gov.za/tenderpreneurship-stuff-crooked-cadres-fighters">“tenderpreneurs”</a> – businessmen who enrich themselves through government tenders, often dubiously. They are found across national government, the provinces and municipalities. There are many others and the work of <a href="http://ewn.co.za/Topic/Gupta-leaks">investigative journalists</a> will no doubt uncover them. </p>
<p>But the Gupta web of influence is certainly the one that’s received the greatest attention. Malema’s coining of the name <a href="http://www.news24.com/Video/SouthAfrica/News/watch-live-malema-declares-war-on-the-gupta-family-20160204">“Zupta”</a> aptly and pithily captures the fusion of the Zuma and Gupta families, the <a href="http://www.e-ir.info/2010/01/24/to-what-extent-can-neopatrimonialism-be-considered-significant-in-contemporary-african-politics/">neo-patrimonialism</a> which sucks out public funds for private enrichment.</p>
<h2>Crumbling empire</h2>
<p>This eighth vote of no confidence shows that civil society has organised a war of attrition against both Zuma and his system of subverting the procurement mechanisms in the public sector. This push back against corruption to defend the institutions of state will continue until Zuma is no longer in office. It is pivotal. The Auditor General has already <a href="http://m.fin24.com/fin24/Economy/there-must-be-bite-at-the-end-of-an-audit-ag-20170614-2">expressed concern</a> that there haven’t been any consequences to his reporting on fraud and corruption in public sector accounts.</p>
<p>The good news is that the Gupta empire <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-07/backlash-over-south-africa-graft-claims-threatens-gupta-empire">seems to be crumbling</a>. For one thing they can no longer laugh all the way to the bank – in an unprecedented move in the country <a href="http://www.biznews.com/undictated/2017/07/27/bank-of-baroda-gupta-outa/">all the banks</a> have, one by one, dropped this particular lucrative corporate client.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Gottschalk is a member of the ANC, but writes this analysis in his professional capacity as a political scientist.</span></em></p>The huge hype ahead of the vote of no confidence in President Zuma made the result anti-climactic. However, the fact that the motion was defeated by only a 21 vote margin is unprecedented.Keith Gottschalk, Political Scientist, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/822442017-08-08T23:17:18Z2017-08-08T23:17:18ZNo confidence vote: a victory for Zuma, but a defeat for the ANC<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181472/original/file-20170808-26039-17fxqav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's President Jacob Zuma celebrates with his supporters after surviving a no-confidence motion in parliament</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Jacob Zuma is a natural born political survivor. Yesterday South Africa’s president <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/08/jacob-zuma-survives-no-confidence-vote-south-african-president">overcame</a> an eighth no confidence vote, despite the mountain of evidence of corrupt conduct that has emerged in recent months. </p>
<p>But it may prove to be a Pyrrhic victory – for him and most certainly for his party, the African National Congress (ANC). <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2017-08-08-zuma-supporters-celebrate-his-win-outa-considers-legal-action/">“Hollow”</a> was the word that one opposition leader, Bantu Holomisa, used afterwards, while the Economic Freedom Fighter’s leader Julius Malema employed a well-known Africa proverb: “When you want to eat an elephant you do it bit by bit”. </p>
<p>Zuma’s political death is proving to be a protracted affair. There was an air of expectation yesterday that recent allegations of “state capture” – attested to by a welter of evidence from the so-called <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2017/06/01/the-new-gupta-emails-are-a-lot-heres-what-they-say-in-5-quick_a_22120706/">#guptaleaks</a> – would be enough to persuade a sufficient number of the members of the ruling ANC to support an opposition-sponsored no confidence vote. </p>
<p>In the event, after a fractious two-hour debate scarred by ugly banter across the floor of the National Assembly, the motion fell short of the 201 votes required to remove Zuma and his cabinet. But yesterday was remarkably different. On the previous seven occasions that the opposition have tabled no confidence votes since Zuma’s power began in 2009, the ANC has remained steadfast in its support for its beleaguered president. Yesterday’s vote was a watershed for the liberation movement that brought an end to apartheid in 1994: around 30 of the 223 ANC MPs who voted yesterday sided with the opposition.</p>
<p>As the ANC’s chief whip, Jackson Mthembu, ruefully observed afterwards, this is true pause for reflection for the ruling party. Never before has such a significant number of the parliamentary caucus rebelled and defied the party whip. </p>
<p>Zuma’s streetwise political skills are well-known. So too is his adeptness at using executive patronage to secure the loyalty of party members as has been made clear in the revelations <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-22513410">arising from his links to the Gupta family</a>. </p>
<h2>The secret ballot saga</h2>
<p>But the back story to the unprecedented rebellion within his own party was the method of voting as much as Zuma’s political skullduggery. For the first time, parliament was compelled to allow MPs <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2017-08-07-mbete-allows-secret-ballot/">to vote in secret</a>. This followed a <a href="http://www.702.co.za/articles/251722/bantu-holomisa-explains-parly-rules-on-secret-ballot">legal challenge</a> to the rules by Holomisa’s United Democratic Movement. </p>
<p>In its 22 June <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-06-22-read-in-full-concourt-ruling-on-secret-ballot/">judgment</a>, the Constitutional Court – an institutional beacon of excellence and integrity in the context of the “capture” of other state bodies – had held that the speaker of the National Assembly had the discretion to order a secret ballot in exceptional circumstances. </p>
<p>Since the ruling, a number of ANC MPs have gone public with testimony of intimidation and even <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/07/12/makhosi-khoza-s-daughter-receives-death-threats">death threats</a> in the case of Makhosi Khoza. In turn, the ANC shot itself in the foot when one region of Zuma’s home province, KwaZulu-Natal, demanded that disciplinary proceedings be brought against Khoza after she had called for Zuma to go. The intervention served to underline the need to depart from the generally established principle of open voting. </p>
<p>Accordingly, speaker Baleka Mbete had little legal choice but to opt for a secret ballot, even though it would encourage dissenting voices among the ranks of the ANC caucus. Politically, she had probably done the political mathematics and, as the national chairperson of the ANC, was confident that regardless of the shield that she said was necessary to protect ANC MPs so that they could vote with their conscience, the numbers would still work out in Zuma’s favour.</p>
<p>And so it proved: 177 MPs voted for the motion, and 198 against (with 9 abstentions). Since the opposition has 151 MPs, at least three of whom were absent through illness, it means that that at least 29 and possibly as many as 35 ANC MPs jumped ship. </p>
<h2>Win-win for the opposition</h2>
<p>But it was a win-win situation for the opposition. Afterwards, in the unseasonably balmy winter’s evening outside the parliament in Cape Town, one after another of the leaders of the opposition spoke cheerfully about the political future and of the health of South Africa’s democracy. </p>
<p>They may have lost the battle, but they feel confident that they will win the war. After all, it is clear that Zuma is now their greatest electoral asset, with <a href="http://www.biznews.com/leadership/2017/05/31/ipsos-poll-zuma-unpopular/">several polls </a>(including the respected <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-05-19-afrobarometer-trio-of-polls-show-shifting-attitudes-but-voters-would-still-opt-for-anc/#.WYo8na17Gi4">Afrobarometer</a>), showing that across race and class, trust in Zuma has collapsed since he was returned to power for a second term in 2014. </p>
<p>Last year, the ANC suffered its first major electoral setbacks since the advent of democracy in 1994 when it <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-revolt-of-south-africas-metropoles-a-revolution-of-rising-expectations-64617">lost control</a> of three major city governments in Pretoria, Johannesburg and Port Elizabeth. Now, its political management skills appear to be in disarray as factionalism and deep, painful divisions dominate internal party politics. This is all unfolding in the run-up to what is likely to be a bloody five-yearly <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/content/venue-anc-54th-national-conference">national elective conference</a> in December, at which the ANC will elect a new President of the party to succeed Zuma. </p>
<p>That may or may not mark the start of a new era of renewal for the ANC. But Zuma’s term as President of the country is only due to end in 2019. A lot more damage could be done to the country’s economy and its prospects for growth. </p>
<p>The consequence of that, however, is that the ANC will face the prospect of losing its majority at the national polls for the first time since Nelson Mandela’s historic victory in 1994. </p>
<p>Yesterday may have been a victory for Zuma. But in the longer term it is likely to come to be seen as a major defeat for the ANC.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82244/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Calland is a founding partner of the political consultancy, The Paternoster Group, serves as a member of the executive committee and advisory council of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution, and is a member of the Board of the Open Democracy Advice Centre. </span></em></p>The political death of President Jacob Zuma is proving to be a protracted affair. Though he lives to fight another day, the ANC faces the prospect of losing its majority at the polls next year.Richard Calland, Associate Professor in Public Law, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/821622017-08-08T15:06:25Z2017-08-08T15:06:25ZPros and cons of the three women running for South Africa’s presidency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181208/original/file-20170807-16774-tzj94a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Women singing at a South African ANC Women's League meeting.Three senior women in ANC are contesting the presidency of the party.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa celebrates Women’s Day on August 9th to mark the day in 1956 when <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/topic/1956-womens-march-pretoria-9-august">20 000 women marched</a> to the Union Buildings in Pretoria to insist on their rights. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.gov.za/womens-day">Women’s Day</a> provides an opportune moment to reflect on what it would mean for South Africa to be governed by a woman president after the 2019 elections. Three women from the governing African National Congress are running as candidates - Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Baleka Mbete and Lindiwe Sisulu. Because voters vote for a party, the President is elected by the members of parliament. The ANC holds the majority vote, which means that the president will most likely be an ANC candidate.</p>
<p>All three women are ANC stalwarts who can be considered as part of the exile generation. They were all active in the liberation struggle, and all have contributed to the country since the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/south-african-general-elections-1994">first democratic elections in 1994</a>. </p>
<p>The question is: will having a woman as president lead to more of the same in terms of the trajectory the ANC has been on since 2007 when Jacob Zuma was elected as President? </p>
<p>And, will a woman at the helm bring a set of feminist values to the table? Women leaders who believe in substantive representation, more than merely numbers in government, will bring a commitment to changing conditions of gender inequality to the position. They are normally influenced by feminist values. Former British Prime Minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/apr/09/margaret-thatcher-no-feminist">Maggie Thatcher</a>, for example, did not care about women’s equality at all, while <a href="https://panampost.com/belen-marty/2015/03/10/bachelet-gives-chilean-feminists-a-shot-in-the-arm-with-new-ministry/">Michelle Bachelet</a> implemented far reaching gender policies in Chile.</p>
<h2>A woman at the helm</h2>
<p>If South Africans get a woman who will govern in the same way as a man they would have gained nothing but a switch in gender. But because the three candidates also participated in the liberation struggle, they know how difficult it is for women to advance in political parties and how gender equality needs to be taken off the back burner.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181176/original/file-20170807-16790-cjdbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181176/original/file-20170807-16790-cjdbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181176/original/file-20170807-16790-cjdbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181176/original/file-20170807-16790-cjdbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181176/original/file-20170807-16790-cjdbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181176/original/file-20170807-16790-cjdbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181176/original/file-20170807-16790-cjdbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Dlamini-Zuma, Sisulu and Mbete are more or less the same age and have long track records as political leaders. In many respects they have similar or better track records than some of the ANC’s male leaders. All three are well educated. </p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/nkosazana-clarice-dlamini-zuma">Dlamini-Zuma</a></strong> holds a <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/nkosazana-clarice-dlamini-zuma">medical degree</a> from the University of Bristol. She has held three ministerial positions – health, foreign affairs and home affairs. She was also <a href="http://www.africaunionfoundation.org/en/council-members/nkosazana-dlamini-zuma">chair of the African Union</a> from 2012 to 2017.</p>
<p>It’s both unfair and sexist to talk about Dlamini-Zuma solely in terms of the fact that she is President <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/ferial-haffajee/heres-a-list-of-nkosazana-dlamini-zumas-accomplishments-so-you_a_21650920/">Jacob Zuma’s ex-wife</a> as though she has no other credentials.</p>
<p>As Minister of Health she spearheaded policies that <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/ferial-haffajee/heres-a-list-of-nkosazana-dlamini-zumas-accomplishments-so-you_a_21650920/">made health care free</a> for poor women and children under the age of six. </p>
<p>During her period at the AU she championed gender equality and a gender <a href="http://www.africaunionfoundation.org/en/pages/agenda-2063">vision for 2063</a>.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.gov.za/about-government/leaders/profile/1044">Baleka Mbete</a></strong>, holds a diploma in teaching and is the national chairperson of the ANC and the speaker of the National Assembly. She was the Secretary-General of the ANC Women’s League from 1991-1993 and a member of the presidential panel of the country’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission. She has not held a ministerial post. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181180/original/file-20170807-16761-13ylia8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181180/original/file-20170807-16761-13ylia8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181180/original/file-20170807-16761-13ylia8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181180/original/file-20170807-16761-13ylia8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181180/original/file-20170807-16761-13ylia8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1068&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181180/original/file-20170807-16761-13ylia8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1068&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181180/original/file-20170807-16761-13ylia8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1068&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Baleka Mbete.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Staining her record was her connection with a <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Parly-reprimands-Travelgate-MPs-20070329">scandal</a> involving the misuse of parliamentary air tickets, as well as <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/mbete-survived-scandal-much-like-zuma-417256">fraudulently</a> obtaining her driver’s licence.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.pa.org.za/person/lindiwe-nonceba-sisulu/"><strong>Lindiwe Sisulu</strong></a> is the daughter of ANC icons <a href="https://www.brandsouthafrica.com/south-africa-fast-facts/history-facts/inourlifetime">Walter and Albertina Sisulu </a> which is why she’s often referred to as <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/sundayindependent/dispatch/sisulus-presidency-campaign-raises-a-number-of-questions-10548291">“ANC royalty”</a>. She has a BA Honours degree in history and political studies and is studying for a PhD. </p>
<p>Of the three candidates she has the most experience in the executive. She has held six ministerial portfolios, including defence and intelligence.</p>
<p>What makes her an excellent candidate is the fact that she is not involved in any faction and has a good record of good governance. She will also be able to deal with the rot in the intelligence sector since she worked as an intelligence officer under Zuma when he was head of ANC intelligence when the organisation was banned.</p>
<p>But what is their relationship with the organised women’s sector?</p>
<h2>The candidates and women</h2>
<p>Mbete was the Secretary-General of the ANC Women’s League at a time before it became a tea club for male leaders. She was also the chair of the women’s caucus in parliament. She understands feminism and was considered a militant member of the women’s league when it returned from exile. At the time she insisted that women should be <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books/about/The_ANC_Women_s_League.html?id=ebeVBQAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y">mobilised to fight for their rights</a>. </p>
<p>But her years as the speaker of parliament have marred her track record. When members of the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – which included women – were <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2016-02-11-eff-chants-zupta-must-fall-as-they-exit-sona">forcibly removed</a> by security guards during Zuma’s State of the Nation Address she stood by as they were manhandled and assaulted. </p>
<p>For its part, the women’s caucus never really took off.</p>
<p>Dlamini-Zuma was a member of the Gender Action Group during the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/convention-democratic-south-africa-codesa-codesa-2">Convention for a Democratic South Africa</a>. But in the first parliament she didn’t stand out as a vocal supporter of feminism in the same way as many other women MPs. These included <a href="http://www.sahrc.org.za/home/index636f.html?ipkContentID=76&ipkMenuID=58">Pregs Govender</a> and <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/dr-frene-noshir-ginwala">Frene Ginwala</a>.</p>
<h2>The case for a woman president</h2>
<p>I believe that South Africans should support a woman for president. The fact that they’re being scrutinised more closely than male candidates points to the patriarchal assumption that woman cannot possibly be well qualified as political leaders. </p>
<p>South Africa has lost many opportunities to appoint a woman president. Take <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/phumzile-mlambo-ngcuka">Phumzile Mlambo-Ncguka</a>, who served as deputy president under Thabo Mbeki. She went on to become the <a href="http://www.unwomen.org/en/about-us/directorate/executive-director">executive director of UN Women</a> where she is doing a sterling job.</p>
<p>What the ANC needs is a candidate who will unite its factions and start to root out corruption. It should be a candidate with a good track record of clean and committed governance and one who is committed to promote a women’s equality agenda. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181174/original/file-20170807-16724-1bmwbhf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181174/original/file-20170807-16724-1bmwbhf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181174/original/file-20170807-16724-1bmwbhf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181174/original/file-20170807-16724-1bmwbhf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181174/original/file-20170807-16724-1bmwbhf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181174/original/file-20170807-16724-1bmwbhf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181174/original/file-20170807-16724-1bmwbhf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lindiwe Sisulu.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The fact that Dlamini-Zuma has hedged her bets with the Zuma camp has made her a member of a faction. She’s supported by the <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/politics/2017-06-13-anc-youth-league-names-top-leadership-choices-to-drive-transformation-agenda/">ANC Women’s League and the ANC Youth League</a>. But the credibility of both organisations is severely damaged. This may not, however, be the perception of many hardcore ANC supporters and may win her large numbers of votes at the ANC conference due to be held in December. </p>
<p>Support for Dlamini-Zuma could have far reaching consequences. If she’s viewed as representing an extension of Zuma’s patronage networks, her election as his successor could lead to a split in the party, weakening it severely in next year’s general election. </p>
<p>The right woman therefore needs to be supported. </p>
<p>During her term as speaker Mbete used strong arm tactics against opposition parties. Her decisions may have left many voters with a bad taste in their mouth. She is also viewed as a Zuma ally.</p>
<p>That leaves Sisulu, who may be a dark horse. But is she a darker horse than <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/cyril-matamela-ramaphosa">Cyril Ramaphosa</a>, another <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/mpumalanga-is-ramaphosas-golden-ticket-analyst-20170712">contender for the presidency</a>? </p>
<p>What is unfortunate is that so far none of the three women have made gender equality the focus of their campaigns.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82162/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Gouws receives funding from the National Research Foundation</span></em></p>All three female contenders for the presidency of the ANC and South Africa have strong liberation struggle credentials and have also contributed to democracy. But, are they up to the job?Amanda Gouws, Professor of Political Science, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/820922017-08-04T12:32:20Z2017-08-04T12:32:20ZZuma no confidence vote: the ANC is the loser, whatever happens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181020/original/file-20170804-2386-1p04e9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South African President Jacob Zuma with Parliament's Speaker Baleka Mbete.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s governing African National Congress has got itself into one hell of a pickle. The National Assembly is due to debate an opposition motion of <a href="http://www.biznews.com/leadership/2017/07/05/zuma-no-confidence-motion/">no confidence </a> in President Jacob Zuma. </p>
<p>Were the motion to succeed, Zuma and his entire cabinet would be forced under the constitution to <a href="https://theconversation.com/zumas-critics-within-the-anc-are-vocal-but-will-they-act-75587">resign</a>. The Speaker of the House would then become Acting President for up to 30 days while it goes about the business of electing a replacement, who would then serve as state president until the expiry of the present term of parliament in early 2019. </p>
<p>Yet the reality is that, save a political tsunami, the motion won’t succeed even though it’s common currency that Zuma is irredeemably corrupt and that he has <a href="http://pari.org.za/betrayal-promise-report/">sold his country out</a> to the Gupta family. He has also alienated many of the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2017/05/24/sacp-stands-with-cosatu-on-its-zuma-banning_a_22106553/">ANC’s traditional allies</a>, and the performances of the government and the economy under his rule have become <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/business/205458-three-graphs-which-show-how-zuma-wrecked-south-africas-economy.html">increasingly shambolic</a>.</p>
<p>Key figures in the ANC have indicated that their party’s MPs should vote with the opposition. These include former President Thabo Mbeki who has proclaimed that ANC MPs should vote in the national rather than the <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/mbeki-anc-mps-must-put-voters-first-8610759">party interest</a>. Similarly, the recently dismissed finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, has urged MPs to allow their consciences to dictate their votes.</p>
<p>Despite such calls, only two ANC MPs, <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-07-19-zuma-is-disgraceful-dishonourable-khoza/">Makhosi Khoza</a> and <a href="http://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1589063/mondli-gungubele-refuses-to-toe-the-party-line-on-vote-of-no-confidence/">Mondli Gungubele</a>, have openly declared that they will vote with the opposition. The ANC has indicated it will subject Khoza to <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/makhosi-khoza-unfazed-and-unshaken-as-she-fights-anc-disciplinary-charges-20170801">disciplinary proceedings</a>. Gungubele may well face a <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-07-31-mthembu-anc-must-act-against-defiant-mp-mondli-gungubele">similar fate</a>. If the ANC follows through on its threats, both may lose their jobs (for if a party expels an MP from party membership, the MP concerned can no longer sit in parliament).</p>
<p>There are certainly other MPs sitting on the ANC benches who recognise the damage that Zuma has done. But it appears they have been held back from speaking out because of the <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/07/02/support-no-confidence-motion-in-zuma-at-own-risk-mbalula">threat of dismissal</a> from parliament and the loss of salary and status that would involve. </p>
<p>It’s for this reason that the opposition has set such store on securing a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-05-16-no-confidence-motion-secret-ballot-gains-ground-in-concourt/#.WYMg_YSGM9c">secret ballot</a> – reckoning that this will allow ANC MPs to vote in favour of the motion while circumventing the risk of party discipline.</p>
<h2>ANC’s conundrum</h2>
<p>When faced by the request of the opposition parties that she allow a secret ballot on the no confidence motion, Baleka Mbete, the Speaker of the House (and a member of the ANC’s National Executive Committee) declared that she did not have the power to grant the request under the rules of the Assembly. However, after being approached by opposition parties, the Constitutional Court subsequently ruled that a <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-06-22-read-in-full-concourt-ruling-on-secret-ballot/">secret ballot was permissible</a>, throwing the decision back into her lap. Mbete has yet to make public her decision.</p>
<p>In the end she sought to deflect criticism by announcing <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2017-08-07-mbete-allows-secret-ballot/">in favour</a> of a secret ballot – but only at the last minute. </p>
<p>But even if enough ANC MPs were to align themselves with the opposition to unseat Zuma, the ANC would remain in control of the immediate situation because it would retain its majority in the House, and it would be another ANC MP who would be elected to serve as president. </p>
<p>Yet win or lose the vote, the consequences for the ANC are dire. </p>
<h2>Options for the ANC</h2>
<p>The party faces three possible options:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The ANC wins the vote by a substantial majority, with only a handful of ANC MPs voting with the opposition. Supposedly this would be a massive victory for the ruling party, yet it will fly in the face of not just the parliamentary opposition, but a massive body of popular opinion throughout the country. The ANC would have voted to keep a deeply corrupt president in power, with probable long term disastrous electoral consequences. Any internal ANC “reform” project will be more likely to fail.</p></li>
<li><p>The ANC just scrapes home by a small majority, indicating that a substantial body of the party’s MPs have voted for Zuma to go. Cue internal party turmoil. Will the dissident MPs own up? If they do, will they face party discipline? What would happen if the dissidents were known to include party heavyweights (and potential candidates for the party leadership at the party’s national congress in December 2017) such as <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2017/04/24/ramaphosa-readies-for-his-anc-presidency-campaign-by-attacking-z_a_22052547/">Cyril Ramaphosa</a> and <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/lindiwe-sisulu-launches-presidential-campaign-to-cleanse-and-save-anc-20170722">Lindiwe Sisulu</a>? Subjecting them to party discipline would risk not just massive intra-party division, but a split within the party – and the further danger that they might team up with the opposition.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1026&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1026&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1026&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cyril Ramaphosa, Deputy president of South Africa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/GCIS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<ul>
<li>The ANC loses the vote, and Zuma is forced to stand down as state president. In this case, the ANC is openly divided, and all hell would break out within the party ahead of its <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/content/54th-national-conference">conference in December</a>. An ANC MP, probably Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, would be elected as state president, but Zuma would remain as party president. </li>
</ul>
<p>The ANC would be at war with itself, with little or no prospect of it facing the electorate in 2019 in one piece. Were the ANC to offer Zuma an amnesty from prosecution, they would face a massive public backlash. If they didn’t, they would face the very real prospect of his having to face trial, with the party’s extraordinarily dirty linen being washed in public for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>Whatever happens, Zuma will work ceaselessly and ruthlessly after the debate to secure the party presidency for his former wife, (and favoured candidate) <a href="http://www.enca.com/south-africa/president-publicly-endorses-nkosazana-dlamini-zuma-for-anc-leader">Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma</a>, reckoning that in so doing, he will retain the power to shape events (and not least, to keep himself out of jail). </p>
<p>Meanwhile, those opposing Zuma will need to rapidly group behind one leader (presumably the new state president) if they are to stand a decent chance of securing enough control over the party organisation to defeat Dlamini-Zuma in December. Rivalry between the prospective anti-Zuma candidates for the party leadership (notably Ramaphosa, Lindiwe Sisulu and Mathews Phosa), would only weaken their chances of victory.</p>
<h2>Ominous future</h2>
<p>Tim Cohen, editor of Business Day, has indicated, sagely, that the Zuma presidency has begun to wind down as the <a href="http://amabhungane.co.za/article/2017-07-22-gupta-leakscom-everything-you-ever-need-to-know-about-guptaleaks-in-one-place">#Gupta Leaks</a> – the series of emails detailing the extent of the Gupta family’s control of the state – reveal more and more dirt. More and more ANC rats will desert the sinking ship and seek safety on a new (anti-Zuma) ANC vessel.</p>
<p>Yet even if the anti-Zuma campaign was to gain enough momentum for victory in December, it will come at massive cost. Not the least of these dangers is that the already alarmingly high rate of <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/shooting-of-anc-councillors-in-kzn-could-plunge-municipality-into-chaos-mec-20170714">intra-party killing of rivals</a> will increase.</p>
<p>It’s difficult to imagine that the ANC will be in any reasonable shape to face the electorate in 2019. Although ostensibly it may yet put on a decent show, it seems inevitable that it will lose numerous votes and a large swathe of MPs.</p>
<p>The looming danger is that in facing the risk of defeat, the party will be tempted to subvert a contrary result in the 2019 election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82092/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Southall receives funding from the National Research Foundation </span></em></p>Even if President Zuma wins the no confidence vote, the consequences for the ruling ANC are dire. A loss would see it further divided and weakened ahead of the 2019 elections.Roger Southall, Professor of Sociology, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/800092017-06-25T10:01:03Z2017-06-25T10:01:03ZSouth Africa’s Jacob Zuma is fast running out of political lives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175366/original/file-20170623-22683-1d6klld.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's President Jacob Zuma isn't blinking despite suffering another resounding loss in the Constitutional Court. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Like the proverbial cat with nine lives, South Africa’s scandal-ridden president, <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/jacob-gedleyihlekisa-zuma">Jacob Zuma</a>, may well have escaped yet again with his political life. This despite another resounding loss in the country’s highest court. </p>
<p>The Constitutional Court <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-06-22-read-in-full-concourt-ruling-on-secret-ballot/">ruled</a> that there was no constitutional bar to the Speaker of the National Assembly, <a href="http://www.news24.com/Tags/People/baleka_mbete">Baleka Mbete</a>, opting to employ a secret ballot in a no confidence vote in parliament. She’d originally asserted that she didn’t have the authority to make this decision, prompting several opposition parties – furious at Zuma’s increasingly dictatorial project of <a href="http://ewn.co.za/Topic/State-Capture">“state capture”</a> – to take the matter to court. </p>
<p>South Africa’s judicial system continues to hold firm. This is despite the fact that there appears to be a concerted and well coordinated campaign by a group of politicians and businessmen to undermine the integrity of state institutions as well as to exploit their weaknesses to prosecute a project of self-enrichment and rent-seeking. The campaign is pivoted around the now notorious <a href="https://mg.co.za/tag/gupta-family">Gupta family</a>.</p>
<p>Zuma has been brought to book repeatedly by the courts. In March last year, the Constitutional Court <a href="http://city-press.news24.com/News/constitutional-courts-damning-judgment-zuma-violated-his-oath-of-office-20160331">found</a> that Zuma, as well as parliament, had violated the Constitution. They did so by failing to defend and uphold the constitutional authority of South Africa’s ombud – it’s Public Protector – who had conducted an investigation into the president’s private homestead, <a href="https://mg.co.za/report/zumaville-a-special-report">Nkandla</a>. She found that Zuma and his family had unlawfully benefited. He was required to pay back nearly R8 million to the state. Yet, following a <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2016/04/01/Full-text-of-President-Zumas-speech-on-Concourt-Nkandla-judgment">half-baked apology</a>, Zuma held onto power. </p>
<p>In parliament he’s survived a number of no confidence votes <a href="http://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/mps-reject-motion-no-confidence-against-president">mounted</a> by the opposition. He also dodged two such attempts in the national executive committee of his own party, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) – <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2016/11/27/anxious-wait-for-outcomes-of-hanekom-s-motion-against-zuma">one</a> in November last year and most recently <a href="http://citizen.co.za/news/news-national/1526627/netshitenzhe-tables-motion-of-no-confidence-in-zuma-at-nec-meeting/">in late May</a>. He’s been backed by an increasingly slender yet sufficient number of loyalists and nationalists for whom Zuma provides political cover for their populist and self-serving call for “radical economic transformation”. </p>
<h2>Tipping point</h2>
<p>The tipping point for the latest legal skirmish was Zuma’s reckless and apparently self-interested decision to <a href="https://theconversation.com/firing-of-south-africas-finance-minister-puts-the-public-purse-in-zumas-hands-75525?sr=16">fire</a> South Africa’s widely respected minister of finance, Pravin Gordhan, on 30 March this year. </p>
<p>Despite a cold war with Zuma, Gordhan had <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-cant-save-itself-just-by-talking-the-talk-it-must-walk-the-walk-73863?sr=7">held the line</a> against “state capture” for 15 months after his reappointment in December 2015. And so as night follows day, Gordhan’s removal precipitated an immediate ratings’ agency downgrade. The downgrade added further pressure to an already weak economy, undermining any prospects of economic growth to address the high levels of unemployment and inequality that threaten its precarious social stability. </p>
<p>Once again, in response to Zuma’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/stakes-for-south-africas-democracy-are-high-as-zuma-plunges-the-knife-75550?sr=21">ill-considered cabinet reshuffle</a>, the largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, tabled a motion of no confidence in the national assembly. There has been an apparent shift in attitude in the ANC’s parliamentary caucus suggesting that the no confidence vote might have a chance of succeeding. Many ANC MPs are now anxious about the party’s prospects at the 2019 national election and their own political future. </p>
<p>But there’s also concern over Zuma’s apparent hold over many backbench MPs. Many of them fear retribution and expulsion should they vote against the president. If an MP ceases to be a member of the party on whose list they stood at election time, they automatically lose their seat in parliament.</p>
<p>Because of this one of the smaller opposition parties, the United Democratic Movement, requested the speaker to use a secret ballot to enable MPs to vote with their conscience. Mbete, who is also the national chairperson of the ANC, refused. She claimed that she did not have the power to make the decision.</p>
<p>The Constitution is unclear. It provides for the president and the cabinet to be removed by the national assembly by a bare majority following “a vote”. In the secret ballot case, the court could have interpreted “a vote” to mean “a secret vote”. Equally, however, the failure of the Constitution to specify a secret ballot in the case of a no confidence vote could mean an open ballot was intended. </p>
<p>So on June 22, the Constitutional Court took neither route. It held that,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the Constitution could have provided for a vote by secret ballot or open ballot. It did neither.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Rather it held that, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>the national assembly has … in effect empowered the Speaker to decide how a particular motion of no confidence in the President is to be conducted. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Accordingly, the Court set aside the Speaker’s decision that she lacked constitutional power to order a secret ballot. Notably, Zuma had entered the proceedings to argue, like the Speaker, that there was no power to order a secret ballot and no need to do so. </p>
<p>The court pointedly observed that Mbete has “an enormous responsibility” to ensure that when she decides whether on a “situation specific” case-by-case basis a secret ballot should be employed. She should do so on a “rational and proper basis”, with due and careful regard to a purpose of the no confidence vote. Importantly, the court noted that the primary duty of MPs is to the Constitution and not to their parties. </p>
<p>The implication is that the ability of MPs to vote with their conscience in such a situation is clearly a factor that the speaker should take into account when making her decision. Some critics will regard the court’s “guidance” as insufficiently precise. But the court was clearly anxious not to encroach on separation of powers – perhaps mindful of the virulent claims from some quarters of “judicial over-reach”.</p>
<p>Mbete will have to choose between her loyalty to her president as one of the ANC’s <a href="https://mg.co.za/tag/anc-top-six">“top six”</a> leadership and her duty to the Constitution as speaker. </p>
<h2>Zuma unperturbed</h2>
<p>Later on the same day of the judgment Zuma was <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/06/22/watch-zuma-answers-questions-on-state-capture">answering questions</a> in parliament. Judging by his typically thick-skinned signs of confidence, the president is not unduly perturbed by the court’s ruling. </p>
<p>While the court stated the power to decide on whether to hold a secret ballot or not should “not be exercised arbitrarily or whimsically”, Zuma has already made it clear that he expects Mbete to decide that a secret ballot is inappropriate or unnecessary. </p>
<p>Parliament returns after its current mid-year winter recess in August. If Mbete once again declines to hold a secret ballot, her decision will, in turn, then be subject to judicial review application. In due course the court could be forced to order her to hold a secret ballot. </p>
<p>So despite the Constitutional Court judgment, and the lucidity of it’s reasoning, a no confidence vote held with a secret ballot is still some way off. Until then, Zuma lives to fight another day. </p>
<p>But with every day passing, December’s ANC national elective conference gets closer. Then Zuma’s term as president of the ANC expires. Then his power will decline potentially decisively. </p>
<p>One way or another, Zuma is running out of political lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80009/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Calland is a member of the advisory council of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution (CASAC) and a Director and Founding Partner of The Paternoster Group: African Political Insight. He also serves on the Board of the Open Democracy Advice Centre. </span></em></p>President Jacob Zuma has been brought to book repeatedly by South Africa’s courts. He also faces a rising tide of discontent. One way or another, he seems to be running out of political lives.Richard Calland, Associate Professor in Public Law, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/799492017-06-22T15:13:28Z2017-06-22T15:13:28ZThere are dangers behind giving South African MPs the right to a secret ballot<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175214/original/file-20170622-11971-10hed44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng making a ruling on secret ballots in Parliament at the Constitutional Court in Johannesburg.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Siphiwe Sibeko/Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It happened as many suspected it would. South Africa’s Constitutional Court <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-06-22-constitutional-court-delivering-ruling-on-motion-of-no-confidence-secret-ballot">ordered</a> that, despite the Constitution’s silence on the matter, the speaker of parliament has the constitutional power to prescribe that a vote on a motion of no confidence in the country’s president may take place by way of a secret ballot. </p>
<p>It also found that <a href="http://www.news24.com/Tags/People/baleka_mbete">Baleka Mbete</a>, the speaker of South Africa’s parliament, was mistaken when she decided earlier this year that she did not have this power. The court set aside her decision.</p>
<p>But the court didn’t go as far as the <a href="http://udm.org.za/">United Democratic Movement</a>, and other opposition parties that had challenged Mbete’s decision, had hoped. It would not force Mbete to order a secret ballot in the upcoming motion of no confidence in <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/jacob-gedleyihlekisa-zuma">President Jacob Zuma</a>. It felt that this would go against the separation of powers, by unduly prescribing to parliament how it should carry out its functions.</p>
<p>Accordingly, the court ordered Mbete to retake the decision on whether to allow the secret ballot. It emphasised that in doing so, she must act rationally. It ordered that she has to take account of all surrounding circumstances, including the possibility that MPs may feel intimidated by their political parties to vote in a particular way.</p>
<p>The court emphasised that parliament has a constitutional obligation to hold the executive to account. Members must therefore act in accordance with their constitutional obligations, their consciences and their oaths of office.</p>
<p>From a constitutional law perspective, the court’s stance is undoubtedly correct. As always, it has shown great respect for parliament’s power to guide its own processes. At the same time, the court has clarified the extent of the speaker’s discretion in a way that aims to ensure that she, and parliament as a whole, exercise their powers in a way that is consistent with their constitutional obligations. </p>
<p>What the opposition asked for was always going to be a long shot. Wanting a court to order the speaker to exercise a discretion that is legitimately hers alone, before she has even applied her mind to the question, would involve a real stretch of the separation of powers. </p>
<p>So, what will Mbete decide? And will her decision, if it was to go against a secret ballot, be challenged? More pertinently, ought it? </p>
<h2>Competing notions of accountability</h2>
<p>Many believe that a decision not to hold the vote secretly would simply be a thinly veiled attempt to shield Zuma from accountability. Such a decision would therefore, if not irrational and unconstitutional, at least be unconscionable. But, as the Constitutional Court acknowledged, there are different, and perhaps competing, notions of accountability at stake here.</p>
<p>On the one hand, the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) in parliament and its own internal structures of political accountability have seemingly compromised the constitutionally designed accountability of the executive to parliament. An open ballot could only exacerbate this. </p>
<p>On the other hand, a secret ballot would sacrifice MPs’ accountability not only to their party peers, but also to the country’s citizens. </p>
<p>How can we be assured that an ANC politician who votes differently under a secret ballot than she would under an open one is doing so based on her conscience rather than on some other, less honourable whim? What is to stop a cynical group of <a href="https://www.da.org.za/">Democratic Alliance</a> (DA) opposition politicians from voting in favour of retaining Zuma because they believe that his continued scandal-prone presidency would better serve their chances in the 2019 election? Would it not make it more difficult for such politicians to subvert the public interest in these ways if the citizenry, and their fellow MPs, could see them?</p>
<p>Perhaps South Africa’s <a href="http://www.polity.org.za/article/the-reshuffle-junk-status-and-south-africa-in-crisis-2017-04-05">current political crisis</a> is so dire that these seemingly far-fetched hypotheticals don’t matter. Perhaps they represent bridges the country should cross sometime in the future. </p>
<p>But making rules (and rulings), especially for the naughty kid in class, is seldom wise. </p>
<p>South Africa is moving into an era in national politics where the ANC is <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-survey-data-shows-zuma-cost-the-anc-dearly-in-the-2016-election-75811?sr=2">not nearly as dominant</a>. This means that coalitions will be the order of the day. In this new era, one or two votes in a parliamentary motion may make all the difference. Will the country still think secret ballots were such a good idea?</p>
<h2>Danger of destabilisation</h2>
<p>Early in June DA mayor Michael Holenstein was <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-06-06-da-opposes-secret-ballot-on-a-motion-against-its-mayor">removed</a> by a motion of no confidence through a secret ballot in Mogale City, west of Johannesburg. Both the motion and the secret ballot were called for by ANC councillors. The ballot was granted by the ANC-affiliated speaker. </p>
<p>The DA and their coalition partners unsuccessfully opposed the secret ballot. As it happened, the secret ballot provided the opportunity for <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-06-08-coalition-governing-is-there-a-da-traitor-in-mogale-city/#.WUtuWeuGP4Y">one of their own</a> to betray the coalition and led to the motion being carried with 39 votes to 38. </p>
<p>Near-comical irony and intrigue aside, this saga illustrates all too vividly how the diminished accountability (to both electorate and party-political peers) afforded by a secret ballot opens motions of no confidence not only to a politics of conscience, but also potentially to one of backstabbing and pettiness.</p>
<p>On top of this, governance in Mogale City is said to be <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-06-09-00-mogale-citys-secret-ballot-spat-is-parliament-in-reverse">suffering</a> as a result of the successful motion. There are fears that service delivery is being paralysed and that the destabilised, hung council may be put under administration. </p>
<p>The consequences of a motion of no confidence in the president will, of course, be far more destabilising. For one thing, <a href="https://www.acts.co.za/constitu/102_motions_of_no_confidence">Section 102</a> of the constitution requires the entire cabinet to resign alongside the president, should the motion pass. A member of parliament deciding how to vote on a motion of no confidence in Zuma is therefore also deciding whether to throw the entire national government into disarray, however temporarily. </p>
<p>This might well be preferable over another day of a patently compromised, Zuma-led government. But there is value in ensuring that such a hefty decision is made only after due deliberation, and is made openly and with courage of conviction. If such courage should prove to be lacking in the members of the majority party, should South Africans not be allowed to see this and to think, in turn, about the vote that in a constitutional democracy can and should matter far more: their own?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79949/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marius Pieterse receives funding from the National Research Foundation and the University of the Witwatersrand. </span></em></p>A motion of no confidence - secret or open - in South Africa’s president will be destabilising. There’s value in ensuring that such a hefty decision is made openly and with courage of conviction.Marius Pieterse, Professor of Law, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.