tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/bill-clinton-3745/articlesBill Clinton – The Conversation2024-03-04T13:35:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246062024-03-04T13:35:59Z2024-03-04T13:35:59ZNikki Haley, hanging on through Super Tuesday, says Trump is weak because he’s not getting as many votes as he should − she’s wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579021/original/file-20240229-28-zcbvn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C33%2C5589%2C3709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of GOP candidate Nikki Haley react as former President Donald Trump gives an acceptance speech during a primary election night party on Feb. 24, 2024, in Charleston, S.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-news-photo/2028796747?adppopup=true">Sean Rayford/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nikki Haley has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/us/politics/haley-not-dropping-out.html">refused to drop out</a> of the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination despite significant losses to Donald Trump in Iowa, New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina. Haley has tried to cast the race in an especially favorable light: As essentially an incumbent, Trump should be near-unanimously supported, but he hasn’t been – so she should keep on fighting. </p>
<p>Haley has made several versions of this argument: </p>
<p>• After finishing third behind Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucuses, Haley saw enough hope to declare the contest a “<a href="https://thehill.com/elections/4411329-haley-iowa-two-person-race-trump-2024/">two-person race</a>” – to incredulous ears. </p>
<p>• After coming in 11 points behind Trump in New Hampshire, an <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/23/nikki-haley-trump-new-hampshire-chance">unusually hospitable</a> state to her in ideology and temperament, a Haley spokesperson characterized Trump’s win as “<a href="https://www.wcvb.com/article/angry-rant-filled-with-grievances-nikki-haleys-campaign-says-of-donald-trumps-new-hampshire-primary-speech/46516280">not exactly a ringing endorsement</a> for a former president.” </p>
<p>• After getting just under 40% of the vote in her home state to Trump’s 60%, Haley again framed the result as more disappointing for Trump than for herself, stressing that “Trump as, technically, the Republican incumbent <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nikki-haley-argues-trump-40-primary-voters-clue/story?id=107561624">did not win 40%</a> of the vote.”</p>
<p>I’m a political scientist, and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hADRzMwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I have studied</a> Trump’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12414">2016 campaign</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12630">his administration</a> as well as the <a href="https://www.ketv.com/article/uno-political-scientist-discusses-impact-of-desantis-dropping-out-on-presidential-race/46480904">Haley challenge</a>. I don’t buy Haley’s rationale for holding on.</p>
<p>As the two candidates face Super Tuesday, the biggest day of primary voting across the nation, Trump is not the weak candidate Haley would like him to be.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in suits on a stage standing behind individual lecterns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579024/original/file-20240229-20-noks1y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford in a televised presidential debate during the 1976 election. Carter beat Ford and became 39th president.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/james-jimmy-carter-and-gerald-ford-taking-part-in-the-first-news-photo/113494342?adppopup=true">Universal History Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No comparison</h2>
<p>Haley’s claim that Trump’s early victories reveal some type of weakness hinges on comparing Trump with real incumbents running for reelection, who are indeed usually unopposed within their party. Think <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/democrats-replace-biden.html">the Biden reelection campaign</a> and <a href="https://www.270towin.com/2020-republican-nomination/">Trump’s own in 2020</a>.</p>
<p>But this comparison is unreasonable: Trump’s not a real incumbent and should not be compared with one.</p>
<p>To see how well Trump’s doing, an appropriate comparison pits Trump against previous one-term presidents running for a nonconsecutive second term against the incumbents who defeated them – Gerald Ford in 1980 against President Jimmy Carter, Carter in 1984 against President Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush in 1996 against President Bill Clinton.</p>
<p>See what today’s situation has in common with these precedents? </p>
<p>Nothing. They never happened. </p>
<p>And that’s because these former presidents would have had little chance of getting nominated by a party that had moved on after their loss. So they chose not to run at all.</p>
<h2>Lose, then retreat</h2>
<p>Carter never seriously entertained a presidential run in 1984 against Reagan, to whom he had lost in <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1980_Election/">a 44-state landslide</a> in 1980. Even before 1980, observers <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=ziBaAAAAIBAJ&lpg=PA3&dq=jimmy%20carter%201984&pg=PA3#v=onepage&q=jimmy%20carter%201984&f=false">foretold Carter’s loss of support</a> among Democrats in 1984, saying “it is very doubtful the party will give him another shot” if he lost in 1980. After he did lose, Carter <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1982/05/11/us/carter-backs-mondale-for-presidency-in-1984.html">threw his support</a> behind his vice president, Walter Mondale. Against Mondale, Reagan would deliver an even bigger, <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1984_Election/">49-state landslide</a>.</p>
<p>George H.W. Bush in 1996 is a similar story. After losing to Clinton in 1992, he <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/bush/campaigns-and-elections">left office embittered</a> and would not recover politically. It was evidently <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=AUcyAAAAIBAJ&lpg=PA10&dq=george%20hw%20bush%201996&pg=PA10#v=onepage&q=george%20hw%20bush%201996&f=false">someone else’s turn</a> to run for president, as the party moved on to Bob Dole in 1996 and to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/04/us/republicans-overview-bush-accepting-gop-nomination-pledges-use-these-good-times.html">Bush’s own son</a>, George W. Bush, just four years later.</p>
<p>Of these might-have, could-have bids for a return to the presidency, Ford’s came closest to reality, partly owing to his <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/gerald-fords-unique-role-in-american-history">unique circumstances</a>. </p>
<p>Ford became president because of Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974. That happened not long after Nixon <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/40-years-ago-gerald-ford-becomes-president-in-a-historic-first">picked Ford to replace</a> Vice President Spiro Agnew, who resigned in 1973. Ford had not had a chance to run on his own terms. In a sense, his 1976 defeat was less conclusive in ending his political life than those of Carter and Bush, making his revival more plausible.</p>
<p>Still, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1978/09/29/stumping-ford-unlikely-to-run-in-80/00b6f0c4-6e1b-415d-a615-2aa4093aa01a/">discouragement</a> from the former president’s own inner circle dampened his flirtations with a 1980 run.</p>
<h2>Wishful thinking?</h2>
<p>The big picture: Voters are generally <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/three-time-presidential-candidate-romney-stassen-115000/">unwilling to give</a> a candidate a second chance to run against someone who already defeated them once – a reason that <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/one-way-trump-fighting-history-election-losers-usually-lose-rematch-rcna117883">presidential rematches are so rare</a>.</p>
<p>Trump is proving to be an exception. He lost reelection in 2020, is running again in 2024 against the same president who beat him and is comfortably marching toward nomination a third time in a row. There’s no modern precedent for this, and it attests to his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/us/politics/trump-iowa-win-voters.html">enduring and extraordinary strength</a> within his party. </p>
<p>To be fair, one thing makes Trump’s rationale for a re-run more compelling than Ford in 1980, Carter in 1984 and Bush in 1996: Many Trump supporters <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-think-2020-election-illegitimate/index.html">don’t believe he lost</a> legitimately to Biden in 2020 in the first place, making them think he is somehow deserving of another chance. But that’s precisely part of Trump’s strength.</p>
<p>So, why does Haley talk of Trump’s weakness? </p>
<p>It’s a mix of a few things. She needs to project confidence and justify soldiering on to voters, donors and herself. She’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746">hoping for miracles</a> in upcoming contests. She could be <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2024/02/20/nikki-haleys-long-game-00142314">ambitious for 2028</a> and beyond. </p>
<p>It’s also just wishful thinking.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Huchen Liu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nikki Haley claims Donald Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent and should be doing much better against her than he is. That’s wishful thinking, says a political scientist.Huchen Liu, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225812024-02-20T13:18:50Z2024-02-20T13:18:50ZNikki Haley insists she can lose South Carolina and still get the nomination – but that would defy history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573600/original/file-20240205-27-tyvqqr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C5862%2C3920&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nikki Haley greets supporters at a campaign stop in Aiken, S.C., on Feb. 5, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-hopeful-and-former-un-ambassador-news-photo/1981166875?adppopup=true">Allison Joyce /AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former South Carolina governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, a Republican, has lost the first four presidential primary contests, but has <a href="https://apnews.com/article/haley-campaign-fight-trump-gop-nominee-donors-b8baa05cfece94e86066cf0c47bed83c">vowed to stay in the race</a> for the foreseeable future. Haley seems to be counting on support from her home state of South Carolina to put her in a more competitive position against former President Donald J. Trump. </p>
<p>Political science gives Haley <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/H/Home-Field-Advantage">a good reason to bank on doing well in South Carolina</a>. For one thing, a candidate has naturally higher name recognition in their home state after having built a career and reputation there. Voters have gotten to know them and their record of achievement, and the candidate knows the culture of the state and its political pressure points. </p>
<p>Shared ties in a state are also a meaningful identity that strengthens connections with voters based on trust. Being an out-of-towner, on the other hand, can make you seem out-of-touch. <a href="https://theconversation.com/dr-oz-should-be-worried-voters-punish-carpetbaggers-and-new-research-shows-why-188569">Just ask Dr. Oz</a>, whose many gaffes during his 2022 campaign for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania highlighted his deep roots in neighboring New Jersey.</p>
<p>These conditions can add up to a <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/H/Home-Field-Advantage">big electoral advantage</a> that Haley might be counting on in South Carolina.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3k2C5LunKS","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Unfortunately for Haley, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/">every single poll</a> of her home state’s voters conducted over the past two months has Trump ahead of her by more than 20 points. She <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/haley-argues-win-south-carolina-claim-victory/story?id=106880487">recently argued</a> that it doesn’t matter if she doesn’t win South Carolina, as long as she closes “the gap” with Trump. </p>
<p>But if she does lose her home state, does she still have any shot at the nomination? The historical data reveal that the answer is an emphatic “no.”</p>
<h2>Data: Haley is in trouble</h2>
<p>I collected election results for both parties’ presidential primaries for each election year from 1992 to 2020. I then compared the percentage of the vote they received in their home state’s primary with the average they received in other states’ primaries held slightly before or on the same day as their home state. </p>
<p><iframe id="HF5Qi" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HF5Qi/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>First, every eventual nominee in this time period performed at least as well, if not better in their home state’s primary than in other comparable primaries. Even Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who were historically unpopular candidates in 2016, followed this trend. The same is true for <a href="https://youarehere.substack.com/p/do-presidential-candidates-get-home">nearly all</a> of the major presidential primary candidates during this time.</p>
<p>The data also tell us that, in the history of the modern presidential primary, since 1972, there has not been a single eventual nominee from either party who did not win their home state.</p>
<p>In this sense, Haley winning the nomination without her home state would be literally unprecedented.</p>
<p>Of course, Haley might have other outcomes in mind. Even if she remains a consistent second-place finisher in the primaries, she could wait in the wings for the nomination if Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigations-civil-criminal.html">legal difficulties</a> prevent him from serving in some way. </p>
<p>But the evidence says that winning the nomination outright will be next to impossible for Haley without first winning the primary in her home state.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A presidential candidate’s ‘home state advantage’ should help them win a primary, which then bodes well for how they do in successive contests. But if they lose their home state, they’re in trouble.Charlie Hunt, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205182024-01-14T12:58:33Z2024-01-14T12:58:33ZDon’t count Biden out: January polls are historically unreliable<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/dont-count-biden-out-january-polls-are-historically-unreliable" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As 2024 begins, Joe Biden’s hopes of being re-elected president of the United States look shaky. Recent <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/?ex_cid=abcpromo">approval ratings have him at 39 per cent</a>, consumer sentiment on the economy sits near <a href="https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/charts.php">a 10-year low</a> and early polls have him down about two points in a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com">hypothetical rematch with Donald Trump</a>. </p>
<p>How worried should Democrats be? </p>
<p>Several historical patterns are relevant and work in Biden’s favour.</p>
<h2>Democrats gripe, then return</h2>
<p>First, in seven of the last eight presidential elections, the Democrat has won more votes. The <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020">Electoral College</a> aside, American voters lean Democratic. </p>
<p>Also, they don’t give up on a president very often. Since 1896, the only presidents to have taken over from the opposing party and then lost re-election were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/11/07/one-term-presidents-trump/">Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Trump in 2020</a>. Unless things are going very badly, re-election of a president is the most likely outcome. </p>
<p>Biden’s current polling doesn’t tell the whole story of his chances. For one, a poll’s timing should affect what we infer from it. Approval ratings in January of an election year don’t reflect the support that will likely exist in November. </p>
<p>Biden’s approval rating is 78 per cent among Democrats, but those numbers will likely improve by November if the re-elections of both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are any indication.</p>
<p>On Jan. 1, 2012, <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">76 per cent of self-identifying Democrats approved of Obama’s job performance</a>. By the week of the 2012 election, it was 91 per cent. Ninety-two per cent of Democrats voted for him in 2012. </p>
<p>Similarly, Clinton’s <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">January 1996 approval rating among Democrats was 72 per cent</a>, but 86 per cent by the time the election was held. </p>
<p>Democrats are more likely to express dissatisfaction with their own presidents, but they return to the fold. That’s because months before an election, disapproval is an easy way for Democrats to relate their misgivings about their candidate. </p>
<p>As the year progresses, approval becomes more about the choice between their team’s candidate and the opposition. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000722">Campaigns ramp up partisanship later in an election year, and that hasn’t really begun yet</a>.</p>
<h2>Too soon</h2>
<p>Another hidden pocket of Biden support is among voters who are neither Democrats nor Republicans. Self-described independents’ approval of Biden is just under 30 per cent, but they preferred him to Trump by 52 per cent to 43 per cent <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/">in 2020</a>. More than 30 per cent are likely to choose Biden this November.</p>
<p>Biden versus Trump polls this early are likely poor predictors of what’s to come, especially with a president running for re-election. The incumbent party candidate is known, while the media focuses on the debates and primaries of the other party. </p>
<p>In every January of an election year, it’s still not clear who will be the successful challenger to the president in November. Questions about hypothetical match-ups are more about a referendum on the president — whether they deserve re-election or how they compare to some possible alternative.</p>
<p>But as the year progresses and the opposition candidate is chosen, survey respondents focus more on the choice between candidates on Election Day. </p>
<p>Right now, disappointed liberals, some independents and Democrats who are worried about Biden’s age <a href="https://www.latimes.com/projects/kamala-harris-approval-rating-polls-vs-biden-other-vps/#:%7E:text=As%20of%20Jan.,update%20as%20new%20polls%20arrive.">(or Vice-President Kamala Harris waiting in the wings)</a> may tell pollsters they would vote for another candidate. But most will probably come back to Biden. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-bidens-ego-bring-trump-back-to-the-white-house-219469">Will Biden's ego bring Trump back to the White House?</a>
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<h2>A highly unusual election year</h2>
<p>Still, 2024 is anything but typical. </p>
<p>In a routine re-election year, it takes time for voters to form opinions about the challenger. Voters already know Trump, who’s the first former president <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/16/few-former-presidents-have-run-for-their-old-jobs-or-anything-else-after-leaving-office/">since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 to seek the office again.</a> Roosevelt lost, incidentally.</p>
<p>Also, a second Biden-Trump showdown would be the first rematch since <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1956_Election/">Adlai Stevenson lost for a second time to Dwight Eisenhower in 1956</a>. If Trump is the nominee, voters will have well-defined opinions of both candidates already.</p>
<p>Worries about Biden’s age will be thought of more comparatively — Trump would be older at his second inauguration than Biden was at his first. Voters can also compare Biden’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/23/trump-biden-us-economy-compared/">economic record (400,000 jobs/month) to Trump’s (176,000 jobs/month prior to the COVID-19 pandemic)</a>.</p>
<p>Also, Trump’s interweaving of campaigning for president while fighting court battles in four jurisdictions will provide a daily contrast to Biden. A recent <em>Washington Post</em> poll <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/1f428bba-56ee-4800-b00d-7fd1b0004627.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_2">found 56 per cent of respondents think Trump is probably or definitely guilty of criminal conspiracy</a> regarding his claims of voter fraud and efforts to overturn the 2020 election. </p>
<p>Legal experts suggest Trump <a href="https://www.salon.com/2024/01/10/dead-man-walking-experts-say-immunity-lawyer-lost-after-he-set-a-trap-for-himself/">will probably be convicted this year on some charges.</a> The Supreme Court may even disqualify him from running, though that’s less likely.</p>
<h2>Be skeptical of polls for now</h2>
<p>With 2020 as a baseline, we know a lot about how voters will choose between Trump and Biden. With strong polarization between the parties, significant movement from the 2020 results will be unlikely. </p>
<p>Biden’s victory <a href="https://www.270towin.com">by seven million votes</a> included the key states of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia. That was good for 306 of 538 electoral votes. </p>
<p>The president could lose several of those swing states in 2024 and still prevail. Mid-terms in 2022 brought in many new voters — younger and pro-choice — who will likely add to that small cushion.</p>
<p>There are many unknowns for 2024, and Trump is not yet the Republican nominee. But in a Trump versus Biden rematch, not much will have changed and a similar result is most likely: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles. </p>
<p>Don’t believe all the numbers just yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Lebo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite what January polls suggest, in a Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden rematch in November, a result similar to 2020 would be probable: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles.Matthew Lebo, Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201702024-01-03T17:41:24Z2024-01-03T17:41:24ZHow Israel failed to learn from the Northern Ireland peace process<p>There is no peace in the Middle East because there is no effective peace process. This isn’t because the Palestinians and Israelis do not know how to make peace. They do. The Good Friday agreement which brought peace to Northern Ireland a quarter of a century ago, provided a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/002903.pdf">clear guide</a>. They have to do what the negotiating teams, of which I was a part, did in Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>The problem is Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his ally, the United States of America, who have failed to apply the lessons of Northern Ireland to Middle East peacemaking.</p>
<p>To fully understand the tragedy this represents, it’s necessary to go back in time to the negotiations that achieved the Good Friday agreement in 1997. At the time I was working, together with two other Northern Ireland-based academics, <a href="https://www.qub.ac.uk/schools/NBE/Research/research-centres-and-institutes/CentreofCanadianStudiesCCS/AffiliatedStaff/">Fred Boal</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-hadden-1397964">Tom Hadden</a>, developing a range of public polls to gauge opinion about how to achieve peace. </p>
<p>As the principal investigator on the Peace Building and Public Policy in Northern Ireland project – independent of government and funded by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust (JRCT) – my role was to develop relations with all the parties to the Northern Ireland peace process and act as an informal negotiator and manager of public opinion and public diplomacy. The public was kept informed through reports and articles in the local newspaper, the <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/cgi-bin/generic?instanceID=10">Belfast Telegraph</a>. It was key to the process that people of all shades of political opinion were not only involved, but were fully informed at all times.</p>
<p>Critically, all the parties to the conflict in Northern Ireland were democratically elected to participate in the peace negotiations there, including the Irish Republican Army represented by Sinn Féin, and the Ulster Volunteer Force and Ulster Freedom Fighters represented by their political leaderships, the Progressive Unionist Party and Ulster Democratic Party respectively. </p>
<p>In all, I had to work with eight political parties negotiating and agreeing questions for public opinion polls designed to resolve issues in the formal negotiations that had yet to be settled.</p>
<h2>How ‘peace polls’ work</h2>
<p>These <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/008880.pdf">“peace polls”</a> were unlike “partisan polls” designed to underline the public’s support for a particular policy favoured by one party or another (most commonly a government). Instead, the polls – which I developed with a partner from each of the eight political parties elected to the formal negotiations – aimed to fairly and objectively measure the public’s support, from both sides, for every possible policy option across the political spectrum. The objective was to determine the precise points of common ground, where they existed, or effective compromise where it was needed for peacemaking. </p>
<p>Public opinion polls are an American invention and, fortunately for me, Bill Clinton’s special envoy to Northern Ireland and the “talks” chairman, Senator George Mitchell, took the polls very seriously and gave me every possible support. </p>
<p>When the British offered to run the polling project for the parties, the parties rebelled and insisted on working with me with JCRT funding. So I always made a point of hand delivering the reports to Mitchell and the parties the day before they were published. And each time the polling reports were published, deals got done until we reached an agreement that we knew could <a href="https://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fref98.htm">pass a referendum</a>, which was eventually held on May 22 1998.</p>
<p>The legitimacy of the Good Friday agreement was ensured by the full democratic participation of all the parties to the agreement and the people of Northern Ireland. Through public opinion polls the people gained a seat at the negotiating table, and through a referendum the deal was made.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Colin Irwin explains peace polls and how they might have affected the Brexit referendum.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Tragically, the peoples of Israel and Palestine have been prevented from learning and applying these same peace lessons to the resolution of their conflict.</p>
<h2>When it all went wrong</h2>
<p>In January 2009, the newly elected US president, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jan/22/hillary-clinton-obama-israel-palestine">Barack Obama, appointed Mitchell</a> as his special envoy for Middle East peace, in the hope he could bring the success of the Good Friday agreement peace process to Israel and Palestine. Expecting Obama to appoint Mitchell to this post following his successful election in 2008, I was invited to run a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/000571.pdf">peace poll in Israel and Palestine</a>.</p>
<p>I was flown to Washington in June 2009 along with my Israeli and Palestinian polling team. Presentations were arranged for us in the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6q2hyaKjs0">US House of Representatives and Senate</a>, and various thinktanks to brief all the politicians and experts with an interest in Middle East peace.</p>
<p>I had been in touch with Mitchell and met him in his office at the State Department. At that time I had also been running peace polls in <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/cgi-bin/generic?instanceID=18">Sri Lanka</a> with support from the Norwegians. They were a generous and reliable funder and had indicated they would be willing to support my work in Israel and Palestine if Mitchell wanted them to. </p>
<p>Mitchell welcomed the Norwegian offer, arrangements were made to take it up, but it all fell through – my gut feel was that the State Department wanted to have control of the research to meet their own agenda. So I did not get the funding and Mitchell eventually resigned his post without achieving peace in May 2011.</p>
<p>Of course, it can be argued that even if I had brought the lessons of the Northern Ireland peace process to Israel and Palestine I would have failed. But I had made all necessary preparations and contacts with all the parties to the conflict to make it work. I knew what I was doing – as did Mitchell when he accepted his appointment from Obama.</p>
<p>Over a period of two months of interviews to develop the questionnaire in November and December 2008 I had private meetings with all the relevant stakeholders including the then Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, and president, Shimon Peres, on the Israeli side. My pollster Mina Zemach was a good friend of Peres and had been his pollster when he led the Labour party.</p>
<p>On the Palestinian side, the non-governmental organisation organising the project, <a href="https://www.onevoicemovement.org/">OneVoice</a>, had close connections with Fatah, the political party founded by Yassir Arafat and others in the 1950s, which was at that stage dominant within the Palestinian Authority. So I arranged to meet with Hamas via an introduction from <a href="https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/ghassan_khatib/">Ghassan Khatib</a>, an independent Palestinian politician and director of the <a href="http://www.jmcc.org/index.aspx">Jerusalem Media and Communications Centre</a>. </p>
<p>Speaking with Hamas was like speaking with Sinn Féin. They had an extreme negotiating position but that is all it was: a negotiating position. Like Sinn Féin they had a legitimate grievance and said they would be happy to cooperate with the peace polls. Of course the impact of the Hamas attack of October 7 and Israel’s assault on Gaza has profoundly reshaped public opinion on all sides.</p>
<p>Violence on both sides of the Troubles that continued <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/04/02/how-murder-of-two-best-friends-spurred-final-push-for-peace-in-north/">even as the talks were progressing</a> meant that at times many thought we would never achieve a peace agreement in Northern Ireland. But such tragedies can either doom negotiations or inspire renewed effort. People have a choice. We carried on. </p>
<p>Significantly, the one key interlocutor who refused to meet with me in December 2008 was Netanyahu. He only consented to send his chief of staff. Zemach said this was because he would refuse to compromise on sharing Jerusalem as part of any peace agreement. And when he became Israel’s prime minister in March 2009 he also refused to include Hamas in any peace negotiations.</p>
<p>My experience told me that excluding Sinn Féin and the other paramilitary organisations from peace negotiations in Northern Ireland had only brought failure, while their inclusion had enabled the peace settlement. </p>
<p>Other parties essential to the success of the Northern Ireland peace process had been the centre <a href="https://www.allianceparty.org/peace_process_papers?locale=en">Alliance Party</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/1/northern-ireland-peace-deal-womens-role-finally-recognised-says-activist">Women’s Coalition</a>. </p>
<p>The politically equivalent party in Israel was Meretz, a left-wing socialist party and strong supporter of the <a href="https://peacenow.org.il/en">Peace Now</a> movement. When I met with them, like Alliance, they told me they would be pleased to be part of a fully inclusive peace process but they were excluded from negotiations as they were not part of Netanyahu’s coalition government.</p>
<p>The establishment in Washington did not have a problem with my contacts with Hamas. In 2009, I had also been working on a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/cgi-bin/generic?instanceID=22">project in Sudan</a> with the US Institute of Peace. Although Hamas was a proscribed terrorist organisation, the Institute for Peace lawyers said it was OK for me to meet and talk with them providing I did not give them any assistance. They advised me “not to even buy them a coffee”. I took this advice. Hamas provided the coffee.</p>
<p>But without inclusive negotiations that also drew on the public’s desire for an end to the bloodshed, peace was not achieved. </p>
<p>In 2013, when I was in New York for meetings at the UN I took the opportunity to visit Mitchell at his law office and asked him why he had resigned. He said it was because he was not getting sufficient support from the State Department. I had planned to reveal this in a <a href="http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/008880.pdf">book I was writing</a>. But a trusted colleague and friend advised me against it, as it could reflect badly on the former secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, when she was campaigning to be president in the run-up to the 2016 election.</p>
<p>Accordingly, I watered down the quote to saying something about the lack of sufficient support in Washington. It was not untrue, but it was not the whole truth.</p>
<h2>Misplaced optimism</h2>
<p>In my optimism at the time, I thought perhaps that Clinton – if she became president – would send her husband to the Middle East as her special envoy. Bill Clinton had got very close to making an agreement some years earlier with the “<a href="https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Peace%20Puzzle/10_Clinton%20Parameters.pdf">Clinton parameters</a>”, but he ran out of time. And then Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election to Donald Trump – and so we are where we are.</p>
<p>It is just as likely that my optimism was misplaced and that Clinton and possibly Joe Biden – who has always been a very strong supporter of Israel – did not want to oppose Netanyahu for domestic political reasons.</p>
<p>When the Good Friday agreement was struck 25 years ago, both Mitchell and I thought Israel and Palestine would be our next challenge. But Al Gore, who we had hoped might set his sights on a peace deal, lost to Bush and then 9/11 happened, and the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq took all the political oxygen out of peacemaking. </p>
<p>Then, 15 years ago, we thought it would happen when Obama was elected. It should have. Another opportunity may well arrive when the present war is over, the Hamas’ attack on October 7 and Israel’s response have raised the stakes for peace considerably. Elections in the US, Israel and Palestine may also put the peace process on hold yet again. But this must not prevent people of goodwill from talking peace. And it can work, history tells us as much.</p>
<p>Sadly, Israel and Palestine are not alone in their cycles of violence and grief. All over the world the lessons of the Northern Ireland peace process are ignored. Frozen conflicts remain frozen at best and with increased frequency become unstable and violent. Over centuries, the cost of war has often been measured in “blood and treasure”. It’s fair to say that since 2009 in the Middle East and elsewhere we’ve seen “blood” in thousands of lives lost and “treasure” in billions of dollars wasted, again and again.</p>
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<p><em>This article originally stated that the author’s work had been funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. This was incorrect. Colin Irwin received funding from the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, which is a separate entity. The error was introduced in the editing process and has now been corrected.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin John Irwin receives funding from: Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, Center for Democracy and Reconciliation in South East Europe, Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, OneVoice, Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (now FCDO), Economic and Social Research Council (UK ESRC), United Nations, InterPeace, Health and Welfare Canada, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), British Academy, Norwegian Peoples Aid, The Day After, No Peace Without Justice, US Department of State, Local Administrations Council Unit (Syria), Asia Foundation, Department for International Development (UK DFID), OpenAI, Atlantic Philanthropies, Universities: Dalhousie, Manitoba, Syracuse, Pennsylvania, Queens Belfast, Liverpool. Also member of the World Association of Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) which promotes freedom to publish public opinion polls and sets international professional standards.</span></em></p>The main stumbling block to Middle East peace is the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.Colin John Irwin, Research Fellow, Department of Politics, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164772023-11-20T17:32:13Z2023-11-20T17:32:13ZJFK 60 years on: his leadership style and the reality behind the myths<p>John F. Kennedy retains an iconic status as an exemplary – even inspirational – public figure and his leadership approach has been influential for decades.</p>
<p>The former US president (1961-63) projected an idealist image of <a href="https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/john-f-kennedy-a-leader-for-our-time,13059">leadership</a>, which, at its best, demonstrated that the political system can address society’s most profound challenges. His was an optimistic and ambitious presidency that, although tragically cut short, achieved considerable success across a range of activities as diverse as <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/kennedy/domestic-affairs">poverty reduction</a>, <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/nuclear-test-ban-treaty#:%7E:text=Kennedy%20signed%20the%20ratified%20treaty,the%20nation%20conducting%20the%20test">bans of nuclear weapons testing</a>, and the Mercury and <a href="https://history.nasa.gov/moondec.html">Apollo</a> space programmes. </p>
<p>At 43 when elected in November 1960, JFK remains the <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/1600/presidents/johnfkennedy">youngest president</a> to take the oath of office – and his youth might have been considered as a disadvantage, especially in foreign policy leadership – but he had honed his foreign affairs knowledge to an extent with his very extensive overseas travel during his time in Congress, and during military service. He also appointed an extremely able and <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/life-of-john-f-kennedy/fast-facts-john-f-kennedy/officials-of-the-kennedy-administration">highly educated cabinet</a>. </p>
<p>As the 60th anniversary of Kennedy’s death approaches, it’s worth remembering that the Kennedy presidency laid down a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23631185">marker</a> for ambitious, informed and progressive styles of leadership. Jack, Robert and Edward Kennedy all contributed in various ways to Democratic political causes, such as expanding civil rights and legislating for healthcare reform.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/romantic-heroes-or-one-of-us-how-we-judge-political-leaders-is-rarely-objective-or-rational-214943">Romantic heroes or ‘one of us’ – how we judge political leaders is rarely objective or rational</a>
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<p>JFK’s leadership style has been hugely influential, acting as a political and cultural <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-image-trumps-ideology-how-jfk-created-the-template-for-the-modern-presidency-78073">model</a> emulated by subsequent presidents as varied as Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. While politically to the right of Kennedy, Reagan (a former actor) arguably shared JFK’s sense of <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/first/f/fitzgerald-blue.html">political theatre</a>. Clinton tried to develop a <a href="http://www.espn.com/espn/photos/gallery/_/id/7964385/image/3/version/mobile/bill-clinton-presidents-playing-football">youthful, vigorous</a> and idealistic image <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41940033">modelled after JFK</a>, although many of his attempts to pass legislation contributing to key Democratic goals (such as healthcare reform) ultimately failed. Clinton, like JFK, liked to gather together large groups of <a href="https://eu.recordnet.com/story/news/1995/01/01/clinton-parties-with-thinkers-s/50877460007/">intellectuals and leaders in their fields</a> to discuss policies and issues. Obama believed in diplomacy and negotiations, even with adversaries, as JFK did, <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=q6G96iX0xW8C&printsec=frontcover&dq=kennedy+sorensen+book&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=kennedy%20sorensen%20book&f=false">according to Ted Sorensen</a>, JFK’s former speechwriter.</p>
<p>Kennedy’s open and engaging style made government and public service seem worthwhile and <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/165902/americans-rate-jfk-top-modern-president.aspx">relevant</a>. Methods used to construct presidential “leadership rankings” <a href="https://www.york.ac.uk/business-society/research/management/policy/archive/trump_presidential_performance_evaluation/">are often challenged</a>, but JFK has consistently been ranked in the <a href="https://scri.siena.edu/2022/06/22/american-presidents-greatest-and-worst/">top ten</a> of many, despite having just over 1,000 days in office. The Kennedy family thrived on ambition and power, but their professed duty to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/08/the-legacy-of-john-f-kennedy/309499/">serve the public</a> seemed genuine, as did the desire to learn and to do better. </p>
<p>JFK governed from the centre, appointing a cabinet with varied political backgrounds. He had an <a href="https://www.historyextra.com/period/20th-century/jfk-style-over-substance/">effective record</a> of passing legislation while in office, and he contributed to the eventual passing of the historic civil rights legislation under his successor, Lyndon Johnson. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">JFK gives a speech about space exploration.</span></figcaption>
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<p>In our own archival <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/17427150211042153">research</a>, we explored the development of what became known as the Hickory Hill seminars, a series of talks and social gatherings that usually took place at Robert and Ethel Kennedy’s home in McLean, Virginia. The events functioned as a place to explore social problems and their solutions, and as a kind of proto-leadership development seminar. Topics of discussion ranged from great literary works to child poverty. Invited speakers included the environmentalist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Rachel-Carson">Rachel Carson</a>, and the philosopher <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A._J._Ayer">A.J. Ayer</a>. The inner circle of the Kennedy administration would actively engage with external people and ideas, in stark contrast to the partisan, secretive and often walled-off <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1742715016680666">styles of leadership</a> that are so common today.</p>
<p>JFK’s presidency and leadership featured some notable successes. He used the federal government to enforce racial desegregation in several high-profile <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/the-kennedys-and-civil-rights.htm#:%7E:text=President%20Kennedy%20defined%20civil%20rights,and%20require%20public%20schools%20to">situations</a>. And his administration prepared the ground for the aforementioned civil rights legislation which was passed after his death. Less positively, the power of Kennedy as a brand was deliberately cultivated and policed by his inner circle. His father crowed about selling Jack’s image “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2017/jan/07/jackie-natalie-portman-behind-the-creation-of-jfk-camelot-movies">like soap flakes</a>”. </p>
<h2>Avoiding groupthink</h2>
<p>JFK’s weaknesses as a leader were also substantial. He acquiesced to the disastrous <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2149944">Bay of Pigs</a> incursion, where military experts wrongly predicted that Fidel Castro’s regime in Cuba could be overthrown with ease. JFK learnt a lesson the hardest way possible about accepting military advice. After the Bay of Pigs incident, JFK introduced new ways of <a href="https://hbr.org/2013/11/how-john-f-kennedy-changed-decision-making">working to avoid “groupthink”</a>. His later success in the Cuban missile crisis was partly derived from this lesson.</p>
<p>But Kennedy also deepened the US’s appalling <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-resources/kennedy-commitment">intervention in Vietnam</a>. He subscribed to the “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1179/072924701791201576">domino theory</a>” about the supposed need for the US to confront communism in Asia whatever the cost. His administration dragged America towards an unwinnable war by propping up the unstable South Vietnam regime, and colluding in a <a href="https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB101/index.htm#docs">bloody coup</a> against one of its leaders.</p>
<p>Speechwriters and academic historians such as Sorensen and Arthur Schlesinger Jr expended huge efforts in curating and promoting the Kennedy family image as a form of progressive, even heroic, leadership (Schlesinger was in charge of the day-to-day running of the Hickory Hill seminars, and was a key figure in the development of presidential leadership <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2657937">rankings</a>). These efforts surely influenced the depth and longevity of the Kennedy appeal.</p>
<p>There are other connections between JFK and the study of leadership. Leadership theorist James MacGregor Burns wrote a campaign-trail <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=cm2LCwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=john+kennedy+a+political+profile+burns&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=john%20kennedy%20a%20political%20profile%20burns&f=false">biography</a> of JFK, and <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=lhrPS_s7EawC&printsec=frontcover&dq=burns+leadership&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=burns%20leadership&f=false">Burns’ work</a> heavily informs the ubiquitous notion of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/135943299398410">“transformational leadership”</a>, the idea that the most effective and ethical forms of leadership are those that emphasise vision, change and inspiration, rather than the more prosaic forms of leadership that amount to little more than looking after the shop. </p>
<p>JFK is widely remembered as a good president, but the idealistic Camelot vision has <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0018726702055002181?casa_token=scvlPoRIIJ4AAAAA:Zv0pJNULlB2-Enc0_MH4fQlSaNpsbiGCg-fPy-cGjjC5JkYZ8mUMimq0gjCZ8L279VHc13S6tHrw_g">undoubtedly been exaggerated</a>.</p>
<p>JFK was due <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/06/10/jfk-foresaw-donald-trumps-america-00038627">to give a speech in Dallas</a> on what became his final trip, warning of “voices preaching doctrines wholly unrelated to reality” – which, he feared could “handicap this country’s security”. Those aggressive and populist leadership styles are in the ascendancy, as personified by Donald Trump. </p>
<p>Rather than engage with political rivals, their approach is to dismiss and attack them. Robert Kennedy junior, for instance, is running for president following a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1350508419870901">Trumpian playbook</a> of vilification and populism, positioning himself as an outsider who will “clean up the system”, rather than a scion of one of America’s most influential families. </p>
<p>Despite this, the JFK legacy retains the potential to promote a serious and ethical approach to leadership. It incorporates visions of idealism and public service, not selfishness and vilification. However, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/sep/13/jackie-review-natalie-portman-kennedy-jfk#:%7E:texilsils%20t=Portman%20is%20altogether%20astonishing%20in,had%20on%20those%20around%20her.">this portrayal</a> often fails to acknowledge JFK’s flaws and failures.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216477/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>JFK’s leadership style has been hugely influential, acting as a model emulated by subsequent presidents including Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama.Leo McCann, Professor of Management, University of YorkSimon Mollan, Reader in Management, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170242023-11-06T13:34:51Z2023-11-06T13:34:51ZWhy are US politicians so old? And why do they want to stay in office?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557470/original/file-20231103-25-kk1rtg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C2908%2C2397&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump, left, and Joe Biden, both photographed on Nov. 2, 2023, are two of the three oldest men ever to serve as president.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Trump: Brandon Bell/Getty Images; Biden: AP Photo/Evan Vucci</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When former President Bill Clinton showed up at the White House in early 2023, he was there to join President Joe Biden to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-biden-and-bill-clinton-speak-on-30th-anniversary-of-family-and-medical-leave-act">Family and Medical Leave Act</a>. It was hard to avoid the fact that it had been three decades since Clinton was in office – yet at 77, he’s somehow three years younger than Biden.</p>
<p>Biden, now 81 years old, is the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/20/politics/joe-biden-80th-birthday/index.html">first octogenarian to occupy the Oval Office</a> – and his main rival, former President Donald Trump, is 77. A Monmouth University poll taken in October 2023 showed that roughly three-quarters of voters think Biden is <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4233885-more-in-new-poll-likely-to-see-biden-as-too-old-than-trump/">too old for office</a>, and nearly half of voters think Trump is too old to serve. </p>
<p>My former boss, President George H.W. Bush, happily chose not to challenge Clinton again in the 1996 election. If he had run and won, he would have been 72 at the 1997 inauguration. Instead, he <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/bush/life-after-the-presidency">enjoyed a great second act</a> filled with humanitarian causes, skydiving and grandchildren. Bush’s post-presidential life, and <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/506330/americans-outlook-retirement-worsened.aspx">American ideals of retirement</a> in general, raise the question of why these two men, Biden and Trump – who are more than a decade and a half beyond the <a href="https://www.fool.com/research/average-retirement-age/">average American retirement age</a> – are stepping forward again for <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/05/a-broken-office/556883/">one of the hardest jobs in the world</a>.</p>
<h2>A trend toward older people</h2>
<p>Trump and Biden are two of the three oldest men to ever serve as president. For 140 years, William Henry Harrison held the <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichment/arts-culture/3744771-here-are-the-oldest-us-presidents-to-ever-hold-office/">record</a> as the oldest person ever elected president, until Ronald Reagan came along. Harrison was a relatively spry 68 when he took office in 1841, and Reagan was 69 at his first inauguration in 1981. </p>
<p>When Reagan left office at age 77, he was the oldest person ever to have served as president. Trump left office at age 74, making him the third-oldest to hold the office, behind Reagan and Biden.</p>
<p>According to the Census Bureau, the <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-estimates-characteristics.html">median age in America</a> is 38.9 years old. But with the <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47470">average ages in the House and Senate</a> at 58 and 64, respectively, a word often used to describe the nation’s governing class is “gerontocracy.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/what-is-a-gerontocracy">Teen Vogue</a>, which recently published a story explaining the word to younger voters, defines the term as “government by the elderly.” Gerontocracies are more common among religious leadership such as <a href="https://www.ncronline.org/blogs/francis-chronicles/no-church-old-men-cardinals-called-be-grandfathers-pope-says">the Vatican</a> or <a href="https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1313938/irans-fossilized-gerontocracy-faces-the-youth-in-the-street.html">the ayatollahs</a> in Iran. They were also common in communist ruling committees such as the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/soviet-gerontocracy-collapse-cautionary-tale-united-states-2022-9">Soviet Politburo</a> during the Cold War. In democracies, elderly leaders are less common.</p>
<h2>Beyond the White House</h2>
<p>Biden and Trump aren’t the only aging leaders in the U.S. It’s a bipartisan trend: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, is 72, and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, is 81. Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley was just reelected and has turned 90, with no plans to retire. Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders is 81 and hasn’t mentioned retirement at all.</p>
<p>In the House, California Democrat and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, at age 83, just announced she’s running for reelection for her <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-speaker-pelosi-seek-re-election-reversing-earlier-plan-2022-01-25/">19th full term in office</a>. Bill Pascrell Jr., a New Jersey Democrat, and Eleanor Holmes Norton, a Democrat who serves as the nonvoting delegate from Washington, D.C., are both 86. Kentucky Republican Harold Rogers and California Democrat Maxine Waters are both 85. Maryland Democrat Steny Hoyer is 84. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/us/politics/oldest-members-of-congress.html">list goes on</a>, and none of these politicians has indicated they’re retiring. </p>
<p>A local pharmacist on Capitol Hill made headlines a few years ago when he revealed that he was <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/11/16458142/congress-alzheimers-pharmacist">filling Alzheimer’s medication prescriptions</a> for members of Congress. Every one of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/us/politics/oldest-members-of-congress.html">20 oldest members of Congress</a> is at least 80, and this is the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/118th-congress-age-third-oldest-1789-rcna64117">third-oldest House and Senate since 1789</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man stands at a lectern with other people around him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557487/original/file-20231103-15-7lxry0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In July 2023, Sen. Mitch McConnell appeared to freeze while speaking with the media, raising questions about his age and health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-john-barrasso-reaches-out-to-help-senate-minority-news-photo/1556768368">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Delayed retirement</h2>
<p>What’s going on here? </p>
<p>Most baby boomers who delay retirement do so because they <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/032216/are-we-baby-boomer-retirement-crisis.asp">can’t afford</a> to stop working, due to inflation or lack of savings. But all of these political leaders have plenty of money in the bank – <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/04/majority-of-lawmakers-millionaires/">many are millionaires</a>. If they retired, they would enjoy <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30631">government pensions</a> and <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30064">health care benefits</a> in addition to Medicare. So for them, it’s not likely financial.</p>
<p>One theory is that it’s denial. No one likes to be reminded of their own mortality. I know people who equate retirement with death, often because of others they know who have passed away just after stepping down — which may explain why both <a href="https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/senator-dianne-feinstein-death/h_ad846d97416acf1e8bbaf2373d6205ab">Sen. Dianne Feinstein</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/ruth-bader-ginsburg-dies/2020/09/18/3cedc314-fa08-11ea-a275-1a2c2d36e1f1_story.html">Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg</a> stayed so long on the job, dying while still in office at age 90 and 87, respectively.</p>
<p>For others, it’s identity-driven. Many of the senior leaders I’ve seen have worked so hard for so long that their entire identity is tied to their jobs. Plus, years of hard work means they don’t have hobbies to enjoy in their remaining years. </p>
<p>Another theory is ego. Some lawmakers think they’re indispensable – that they’re the only ones who can possibly do the job. They’re not exactly humble.</p>
<p>In the political world, their interest is often about power as well. These are the types who think: Why wouldn’t I want to keep casting deciding votes in a closely divided House or Senate, or keep giving speeches and flying around on Air Force One as president, or telling myself I’m saving democracy? </p>
<p>It’s easy to see why so few of them want to walk away.</p>
<h2>Age limits?</h2>
<p>There have been calls to impose age limits for federal elected office. After all, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/jmd/page/file/1446196/download">federal law enforcement officers</a> have mandatory retirement at 57. So do <a href="https://www.nps.gov/aboutus/become-a-law-enforcement-ranger.htm">national park rangers</a>. Yet the most stressful job in the world has no upper age limit.</p>
<p>For those who think mandatory retirement is ageist and arbitrary, there are other options: Republican candidate Nikki Haley has called for <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3859468-haley-calls-for-mental-competency-tests-for-politicians-over-75/">compulsory mental competency tests</a> for elected leaders who are 75 and older, though she has said <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/time-competency-test-politicians-heres-why">passing wouldn’t be a required qualification for office</a>, and failing wouldn’t be cause for removal. A September 2023 poll shows <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4192393-mental-competency-tests-for-politicians-over-75-see-overwhelming-support-in-new-poll/">huge majorities of Americans support competency testing</a>. That way, the public would know who was sharp and who was not. Sounds like a fine idea to me.</p>
<p>So does having the generosity to step aside and think of others. And having the wisdom to realize that life is short and about more than just going to work. And having the grace to do what John F. Kennedy, the nation’s second-youngest president, once said: to <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/president-john-f-kennedys-inaugural-address">pass the torch to a new generation of Americans</a>.</p>
<p>My colleague professor Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/19/us-congress-presidency-gerontocracy">puts it well</a>: “I’m 70, so I have great sympathy for these people: 80 is looking a lot younger than it used to, as far as I’m concerned. But no, it’s ridiculous. We’ve got to get back to electing people in their 50s and early 60s.” And the <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4233885-more-in-new-poll-likely-to-see-biden-as-too-old-than-trump/">polling shows</a> that most Americans would say, “Amen, brother.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary Kate Cary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many years beyond the average American retirement age, politicians vie for power and influence. Their constituents tend to prefer they step back and pass the torch to younger people.Mary Kate Cary, Adjunct Professor of Politics and Director of Think Again, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2122332023-09-14T18:53:09Z2023-09-14T18:53:09ZHunter Biden is the latest presidential child to stain a White House reputation − but others have shined it up<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548059/original/file-20230913-25-9vesrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C0%2C2982%2C2020&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden and family after he was sworn in at the U.S. Capitol, January 20, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenInauguration/4df43ce386994cf098c6f2e8f1f104fb/photo?Query=Hunter%20Biden%20Joe%20Jill&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1292&currentItemNo=31&vs=true">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hunter Biden, the surviving son of President Joe Biden, <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ded.82797/gov.uscourts.ded.82797.40.0.pdf">was indicted on Sept. 14, 2023</a>, on gun-related charges – facing a possible criminal trial while his father is campaigning for reelection. The charges relate to Hunter Biden’s alleged lying about his drug use when he purchased a gun in 2018. And a conviction could mean <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/14/us/politics/hunter-biden-indictment-gun-charges.html">prison time of 10 years</a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/14/hunter-biden-indicted-on-gun-charges-00115964">or more</a>. </p>
<p>As Hunter Biden’s legal peril rises, with all its ensuing political complications, people have rediscovered the likes of <a href="https://www.biography.com/political-figures/a44270818/hunter-biden-scandals-involving-kids-of-presidents">Ulysses Grant Jr., Alice Roosevelt and Neil Bush</a>, as if the best way to make sense of Hunter Biden is found in a rogues’ gallery of difficult presidential relatives. </p>
<p><a href="https://history.wustl.edu/people/peter-kastor">As a historian of the American presidency</a>, I see the case of Hunter Biden as a revealing indicator of the ways that presidential children have figured in American public life, whether they were beloved or reviled. </p>
<p>Most presidents and first ladies have <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/All-the-Presidents-Children/Doug-Wead/9780743446334">attempted to protect their children</a> – especially their young children – from the scrutiny and the emotional toll of public life. Whether they were publicly visible or not, their children have always been factors in the presidents’ public lives and presidents have sought to exploit the political benefits they can draw from their children. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, commentators and the American public alike have drawn their own conclusions about individual presidents and the presidency as an institution in part on the basis of presidential children. </p>
<p>In my own research, I have observed that presidents have consistently looked to their adult sons as potential political allies, only to find that young children and especially young daughters have become more effective political assets. Those dynamics have only intensified over time, especially in recent decades as presidents increasingly <a href="https://commonreader.wustl.edu/c/marriage-in-the-white-house/">put their private lives on public display</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A collage of three photos of men with brides." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548092/original/file-20230913-19-7krw3f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Their daughters’ weddings help humanize a president; clockwise from left, Lyndon Johnson and daughter Lynda; George W. Bush and daughter Jenna; Richard Nixon and daughter Tricia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Johnson: Getty Images; Bush: Shealah Craighead/The White House via FilmMagic; Nixon: Nixon White House Photographs</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>America, mirrored</h2>
<p>Presidential children have reflected how Americans think about age and gender, parenting and politics. </p>
<p>Those sometimes abstract concepts assume real form in presidential families. And they operate in unexpected ways. The fact that gender norms often precluded presidential daughters from an <a href="http://ap.gilderlehrman.org/history-by-era/womens-history/essays/women-american-politics-twentieth-century">explicitly political role</a> paradoxically could make them more popular public figures. The assumption that young children <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2014/12/02/politics/political-kids-off-limits/index.html">should be free from the political rough-and-tumble</a> has recently made them highly effective symbols for presidential image-making.</p>
<p>Presidents have often sought a role for their adult sons in supporting their administrations. Many of those sons happily obliged. In 1837, Martin Van Buren <a href="https://www.nps.gov/mava/learn/historyculture/abraham-van-buren.htm">appointed his son, Abraham</a>, to serve as his private secretary, at the time a high-level confidential advisor. Over a century later, <a href="https://www.nps.gov/people/john-eisenhower.htm">Dwight Eisenhower selected his son, John</a>, to serve as assistant staff secretary. <a href="https://erpapers.columbian.gwu.edu/james-roosevelt-1907-1991">James Roosevelt campaigned for his father, Franklin</a>, and quite literally supported him. In public appearances, Franklin would lean on James, holding his hand in what appeared to be an expression of affection but was actually <a href="https://erpapers.columbian.gwu.edu/james-roosevelt-1907-1991">a tactic to hide his polio-related disability</a>. </p>
<p>The ambitions of <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/john-quincy-adams/">John Quincy Adams</a>, son of the second president of the U.S., <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/john-adams/">John Adams</a> and himself a future president, raised <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/presidential-nepotism-debate-goes-back-to-the-founders-time">accusations of nepotism</a> in a country that claimed to have eliminated a royal class. But <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/white-house-hostesses-the-forgotten-first-ladies">Martha Jefferson Randolph</a> could fill the traditional role of first lady and serve as confidante to her father, the widower and <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/bios/thomas-jefferson">third U.S. president, Thomas Jefferson</a>. </p>
<p>The sons of Teddy and Franklin Roosevelt both faced accusations that they traded on their fathers’ names <a href="https://fdr.blogs.archives.gov/2018/01/31/sons-of-the-commander-in-chief-the-roosevelt-boys-in-world-war-ii/">to secure undeserved offices</a>. <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/291313/wilson-by-a-scott-berg/">In contrast, Woodrow Wilson’s daughter</a>, Margaret, served as first lady for over a year before her widowed father remarried. Her younger sister, <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/pioneering-women-of-the-woodrow-wilson-white-house-1913-1921">Jessie, was an activist</a> for women’s suffrage and the League of Nations.</p>
<p>As journalists, historians and the American public have <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/606853/the-presidents-vs-the-press-by-harold-holzer/">tried to pierce the veil of privacy</a> surrounding presidential private life over the past half-century, presidents and the politicos who surround them have also sought to remove that veil, but selectively so, with an eye toward their own advantage. </p>
<p>Biographers <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/6467/6467-h/6467-h.htm">celebrated presidents like Teddy Roosevelt</a> and <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/visit-museum/exhibits/past-exhibits/first-children-caroline-and-john-jr-in-the-kennedy-white-house">John Kennedy who played with their young children</a>. Ronald <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/family-feud-reagans-children-debate-legacy-father/story?id=12786615">Reagan’s children argued about whether he was a good father</a>, claiming that his private behavior should affect whether people should see him as a great president.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/18/politics/gallery/white-house-weddings-history/index.html">White House weddings of Lynda Bird Johnson and Tricia Nixon</a> provided opportunities to soften the image of the brass-knuckles political personalities of Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon. These were <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/digital-library/exhibits/something-old-something-new-eight-first-daughters-fashionable-white-house-weddings">major public events</a> in their own time, and the notion that Nixon wanted to exploit the event while never abandoning his antagonism toward the Washington press corps was a <a href="https://www.20thcenturystudios.com/movies/the-post">subplot in the 2017 film, “The Post</a>.”</p>
<p>The Johnson and Nixon weddings offered a preview of how White House children provided presidents with image management opportunities. But the process began in earnest 30 years ago, as Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama sought to preserve the privacy of their young daughters even as they made conspicuous efforts to demonstrate their role in raising those daughters. </p>
<p>In “A Place Called Hope,” a promotional film for his 1996 re-election campaign, Bill Clinton beamed with pride as he discussed <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFMo3d9zq9g&t=5m4s">Chelsea Clinton’s growing comfort at political events</a>. George W. Bush <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/200372/decision-points-by-george-w-bush/">celebrated both of his daughters’ public careers</a>, even when Barbara became an activist with left-leaning organizations. Barack Obama joked with TV host Jimmy Kimmel about managing his daughters’ social media accounts, as if he were <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNyd34TPXUg&t=2m23s">just another befuddled father</a>.</p>
<p>In an era of identity politics, when the explicit <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1993/10/feminisms-identity-crisis/304921/">invocation of feminism could generate a political backlash</a>, these young daughters provided the means for these three presidents to reinforce the image of themselves as members of just another American family and modern fathers who supported their daughters. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LFMo3d9zq9g?wmode=transparent&start=303" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Bill Clinton speaks about his daughter, Chelsea, in a promotional video.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Those family-oriented images made the shift to Donald Trump all the more jarring. His approach harkened back to the 19th century, when presidents appointed their adult sons to office while young children rarely appeared in public. Rather than exploit young Barron Trump’s potential to present Trump as a caring father, Trump preferred to emphasize his grown children. </p>
<p>Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/don-jr-and-eric-trump-campaigning-2018-10">regularly served as surrogates for their father</a>. Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/10/ivanka-trump-jared-kushner-nepotism-conflicts-of-interest">held official appointments</a> in the administration. </p>
<p>Yet whatever benefit he believed he drew from these adult children, Trump found they were immediate <a href="https://apps.bostonglobe.com/opinion/graphics/2021/06/future-proofing-the-presidency/part-3-a-sordid-family-affair/">lightning rods</a> for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/11/us/politics/donald-trump-jr-eric-trump-business.html">public criticism</a>.</p>
<h2>How to look normal</h2>
<p>The template of presidential children making their fathers appear more familiar and accessible still rules. </p>
<p>While the adult children of most Republican candidates have been invisible on the current campaign trail, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – often described as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/10/us/politics/desantis-iowa.html">awkward</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/01/17/ron-desantis-likability-issue-on-politics-00077927">lacking charm</a> – has made a point of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/18/us/politics/ron-desantis-age.html">appearing with his young children</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/president-biden/">Joe Biden’s preferred political origin story</a> is the image of the caring father who was sworn into the Senate in a hospital ward so he did not leave Beau and Hunter following the car crash that killed Biden’s first wife and his only daughter. </p>
<p>At the Democratic Convention in 2008, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden nominated his father <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYjrS-F3dCc">as the party’s candidate for vice president</a>. He was the latest presidential son to campaign for his father. But <a href="https://apnews.com/general-news-d8f69eb645d74b7886387f713981b739">Beau died from brain cancer</a> at age 46. With Beau gone and Hunter’s legal problems a political liability, Biden has taken a page from his predecessors’ handbook. </p>
<p>If his administration cannot cast Biden as a young dad like Ron DeSantis, they can surround him with his grandchildren. In fact, when Biden won the presidential election in 2020, one of the first photos from the Biden camp came from his granddaughter, Naomi, showing her generation of the family <a href="https://people.com/politics/election-2020-joe-biden-celebrates-victory-with-grandchildren/">literally surrounding their grandfather</a>. </p>
<p>The indictment wasn’t the only bad news for the Bidens – father and son – in one week. Hunter Biden had already become the ultimate lightning rod for his father, with the announcement on Sept. 12, 2023, by the House GOP that they <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mccarthy-biden-impeachment-shutdown-house-republicans-b187202be8814f7acbdd6e2e937e23d4">will undertake impeachment proceedings</a> based largely on the president’s alleged interactions with his son’s business ventures. Hunter Biden’s place in the story of presidential children is thus clear, a story that politicians now know by heart: As a crucial element in his father’s public image – for better or for worse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Kastor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Politics, age and gender combine to shape the understanding of presidents’ families – and the presidents themselves.Peter Kastor, Professor of History & American Culture Studies, Associate Vice Dean of Research, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2113622023-09-12T12:26:24Z2023-09-12T12:26:24Z30 years after Arafat-Rabin handshake, clear flaws in Oslo Accords doomed peace talks to failure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547046/original/file-20230907-29-w0u6nx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C0%2C3542%2C2396&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A historic handshake.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-president-bill-clinton-watches-as-the-israeli-news-photo/2666773?adppopup=true">MPI/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Sept. 13, 1993, the world watched as Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/08/06/488737544/oslo-tells-the-surprising-story-behind-a-historic-handshake">shook hands on the White House lawn</a>. It was a stunning moment. The famous handshake between adversaries marked the beginning of what became known as the <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/israelopt-osloaccord93">Oslo Accords</a>, a framework for talks between Israeli and Palestinian representatives, mediated by U.S. diplomats.</p>
<p>The idea was that through open-ended negotiations and confidence-building measures, Palestinians would eventually take control over their own affairs in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem – <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/history/">territories that Israel</a> had <a href="https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/israel-and-the-occupied-palestinian-territory/">illegally occupied following the 1967 Six-Day War</a>. </p>
<p>After an <a href="https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/pcw/97181.htm">interim period of five years</a>, the thinking went, a Palestinian state would exist side by side with Israel. And through such a two-state solution, peace between Israel and the Palestinians could be achieved.</p>
<p>Thirty years later, it is clear the Oslo Accords have achieved neither peace nor a two-state solution. So far in 2023 alone, over 200 Palestinians and nearly 30 Israelis <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/22/more-than-200-palestinians-nearly-30-israelis-killed-so-far-this-year-un">have been killed</a>. Israel has <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israel-swears-in-netanyahu-as-prime-minister-most-right-wing-government-in-countrys-history">the most right-wing, nationalist government</a> in its history, and the <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2023-06-29/ty-article-opinion/.premium/why-is-the-palestinian-authority-weak-israeli-occupation/00000189-08a0-dae1-afa9-08bd83b50000">Palestinian leadership is weak and divided</a>. There is little prospect for a return to negotiations anytime soon. </p>
<p>How did this grim reality emerge from such high hopes in 1993? Many analysts point to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhea62CPM3Q">violations of the terms of the accords</a> committed by both sides. Others blame a <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/09/12/legacy-of-oslo-process-pub-52972">lack of accountability</a>, which allowed those violations to go unchecked.</p>
<p>Certainly, there is plenty of blame to go around. But as a <a href="https://menas.arizona.edu/person/maha-nassar">scholar of Palestinian history</a>, it is clear to me that the Oslo peace process failed because the framework itself was deeply flawed in three key ways.</p>
<p>First, it ignored the power imbalance between the two sides. Second, it focused on ending violence by Palestinian militant groups while overlooking <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/4/10/israeli-violence-is-the-problem">acts of violence committed by the Israeli state</a>. And third, it sought peace as the end goal, rather than justice.</p>
<p>Let’s break each one of these down.</p>
<h2>Ignoring the power imbalance</h2>
<p>The Palestinian Liberation Organization, or PLO, had <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1988/11/15/world/plo-proclaims-palestine-to-be-an-independent-state-hints-at-recognizing-israel.html">implicitly recognized Israel</a> in 1988. But a more formal statement <a href="https://mesg.wordpress.hull.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/The-Israel-PLO-Mutual-Recognition-Agreement.pdf">was needed</a> for Israel to agree to talks. In an exchange of letters on Sept. 9, 1993, <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-205528/">Arafat wrote to Rabin</a>, “The PLO recognizes the right of the State of Israel to exist in peace and security.” </p>
<p>In formally recognizing Israel’s right to exist, the PLO essentially gave up sole sovereign claims to <a href="https://imeu.org/article/quick-facts-the-palestinian-nakba">78% of the Palestinians’ historic homeland</a> that was now claimed by Israel.</p>
<p>In response, <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-205528/">Rabin wrote to Arafat</a> that Israel would “recognize the PLO as the representative of the Palestinian people.” He did not recognize the Palestinians’ right to form their own state.</p>
<p>In a “<a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-180015/">Declaration of Principles</a>,” signed by Arafat and Rabin at the White House on Sept. 13, it was stated that the aim of the talks was “the implementation of Security Council resolutions 242 (from 1967) and 338 (from 1973).” Those U.N. resolutions call on Israel to withdraw from territories it occupied in 1967. But they do not explicitly call for the establishment of a Palestinian state.</p>
<p>Since then, Israel has <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-06-15/ty-article/.highlight/half-the-west-bank-land-seized-by-israel-used-only-by-settlers-report-says/00000188-b932-d1d6-a7b9-fbf73a8a0000">expropriated nearly half</a> of the West Bank for the exclusive use of Jewish settlers, <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2016/sc12657.doc.htm">in violation of international law</a>. It also routinely <a href="https://apnews.com/article/water-climate-change-drought-occupation-israel-palestinians-30cb8949bdb45cf90ed14b6b992b5b42">siphons off</a> water from Palestinian underground aquifers for the use of the settlers, while <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/parched-israels-policy-water-deprivation-west-bank#:%7E:text=Immediately%20after%20occupying%20the%20West,Valley%2C%20for%20its%20own%20ends.">depriving</a> Palestinians access to their own water. </p>
<p>As a result of these <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/demolition-watch">and other measures</a>, life for Palestinians <a href="https://www.btselem.org/publications/summaries/199905_oslo_before_and_after">became worse</a> during the post-Oslo years, not better. As Palestinians lost further control over their lands, homes and resources, their ability to establish a state grew more distant.</p>
<p>Yet, by insisting that bilateral negotiations take place between a powerful state and a stateless people – rather than under the auspices of the United Nations or other international body – the Oslo framework ignored the power imbalance between Israel and the Palestinians. U.S. mediators would insist that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/06/world/albright-in-mideast-trying-to-push-israeli-palestinian-talks.html?searchResultPosition=7">both sides</a> needed to compromise. But Israel held far more military, economic and diplomatic power than the Palestinians. </p>
<p>By ignoring this power imbalance, the Oslo Accords effectively allowed Israel to continue to confiscate land and resources with no consequences. With 60% of the West Bank <a href="https://unctad.org/publication/economic-costs-israeli-occupation-palestinian-people-cost-restrictions-area-c-viewed">under Israeli control</a>, the prospects for a viable, independent Palestinian state were undermined.</p>
<h2>No end to state violence</h2>
<p>A 1994 <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/IL%20PS_940504_Agreement%20on%20the%20Gaza%20Strip%20and%20the%20Jericho%20Area%20%28Cairo%20Agreement%29.pdf">follow-up agreement stated</a>, “Both sides shall take all measures necessary in order to prevent acts of terrorism, crime and hostilities directed against each other.” It added that “the Palestinian side shall take all measures necessary to prevent such hostile acts directed against the Settlements, the infrastructure serving them and the Military Installation Area.” </p>
<p>Successive Israeli governments have interpreted “hostile acts” broadly. As a result, even Palestinians who have defended their lands through nonviolent means <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=121998612">have been arrested</a>, <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2010/08/activista-palestino-declarado-culpable-tribunal-militar-israeli/">imprisoned</a> and <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/civilresistance/nonviolent-resistance-in-palestine-steadfastness-creativity-and-hope/">shot at</a> by Israeli soldiers.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/IL%20PS_940504_Agreement%20on%20the%20Gaza%20Strip%20and%20the%20Jericho%20Area%20%28Cairo%20Agreement%29.pdf">agreement also stated</a> that “the Israeli side shall take all measures necessary to prevent such hostile acts emanating from the Settlements and directed against Palestinians.” But it does not mention Israeli military violence against Palestinian civilians. </p>
<p>To enforce this agreement, the Palestinian Authority – an autonomous body that rules over Palestinians in the West Bank – <a href="https://www.peaceagreements.org/viewmasterdocument/983">agreed to coordinate</a> with the Israeli military over security matters. It would either arrest Palestinians whom Israel suspects of carrying out hostilities or allow Israel to enter Palestinian areas and arrest suspects themselves.</p>
<p>This coordination protects Israelis from Palestinian violence, but it does not protect Palestinians from violence by the Israeli military. Since fall 2000, the Israel military has killed <a href="https://statistics.btselem.org/en/all-fatalities/by-date-of-incident?section=overall&tab=overview">eight times</a> as many Palestinians as compared with Israelis killed by Palestinians. Half of those Palestinian victims were <a href="https://statistics.btselem.org/en/all-fatalities/by-date-of-incident?section=participation&tab=overview">not involved in hostilities</a> when they were killed, according to analysis from the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem.</p>
<p>Palestinians are also subjected to other kinds of human rights abuses from the Israeli state. These include <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israel-ramps-up-demolition-of-palestinian-homes-in-jerusalem">home demolitions</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/prison-israel-palestinians-administrative-detention-e4ffd1744a9692c2539a78a8d916176e">imprisonment without charge or trial</a> and <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-11-30/ty-article/.premium/israels-military-police-to-probe-alleged-abuse-of-palestinians-by-soldiers-at-checkpoint/00000184-c99a-dbba-a5fd-ddda80620000">abuse</a> <a href="https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/fact-sheet-movement-and-access-west-bank-august-2023">at checkpoints</a>. Most soldiers accused of harming Palestinians <a href="https://s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/files.yesh-din.org/LAW+ENFORCEMENT+AGAINST+ISRAELI+SOLDIERS+2017-2021/YeshDin+-+Data+12.22+-+English.pdf">do not face consequences</a> for their actions, according to Yesh Din, an Israeli human rights organization.</p>
<h2>Peace over justice</h2>
<p>This kind of structural violence and abuse – perpetrated by the state against marginalized groups – rarely makes headlines in Western media. Such a lack of awareness reinforces Israel’s ability to control Palestinians’ lives and further undermines the prospects for peace.</p>
<p>Yet this exclusive focus on achieving peace has, I believe, also been part of the problem. American and Israeli diplomats <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?150611-1/middle-east-peace-process">narrowly defined peace</a> as the absence of armed violence and set that as the overarching goal. They believed that if Palestinians refrained from committing acts of violence, then peace through a two-state solution could be achieved. Coverage that mirrored this perspective in the mainstream U.S. media <a href="https://www.972mag.com/new-york-times-israel-palestine/">further entrenched</a> this view. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A mural of eyes painted on a crumbling wall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547524/original/file-20230911-23-qc9k0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graffiti on a wall of the destroyed ‘Yasser Arafat International Airport’ in the Gaza Strip.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-picture-taken-on-august-27-2023-shows-a-view-of-a-news-photo/1654263885?adppopup=true">Said Khatib/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>But this understanding of peace has ignored the Palestinians’ need for justice. At a minimum, justice to many Palestinians would have meant <a href="https://al-shabaka.org/memos/the-pas-revolving-door-a-key-policy-in-security-coordination/">an end to security cooperation</a> between the Palestinian Authority and Israel and the establishment of an independent, democratic Palestinian state on the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-palestinians-1948-scepticism/palestinians-losing-faith-in-two-state-solution-idUKMAC13949320080512">remaining 22% of their homeland</a>. </p>
<p>But with the power imbalances enshrined in the Oslo framework, and with U.S. mediators focusing more on peace – measured by incidents of Palestinian violence over those perpetrated by the Israeli state – this was not to be.</p>
<h2>Oslo as ‘surrender’</h2>
<p>One month after the famous handshake, the <a href="https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v15/n20/edward-said/the-morning-after">Palestinian scholar Edward Said described</a> the Oslo Accords as “an instrument of Palestinian surrender.” Recently, a group of leading political scientists <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/israel-palestine-one-state-solution">called on U.S. policymakers to abandon</a> the Oslo framework and the two-state solution altogether. They call on the U.S. to “advocate for equality, citizenship, and human rights for all Jews and Palestinians living within the single state dominated by Israel.”</p>
<p>It is, I believe, an urgent call. Life for Palestinians is getting worse, not better. A growing number of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/27/threshold-crossed/israeli-authorities-and-crimes-apartheid-and-persecution">international human rights organizations</a> and <a href="https://sites.google.com/view/israel-elephant-in-the-room/home?pli=1">public figures</a> describe the current reality on the ground in <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/mde15/5141/2022/en/">Israel-Palestine as a form of apartheid</a>.</p>
<p>Thirty years after their famous handshake, Arafat and Rabin have long since passed. It’s time to admit that the process they kick-started is also now confined to history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211362/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maha Nassar served as a 2022 Non-Resident Palestinian Fellow at the Foundation for Middle East Peace.</span></em></p>A famous gesture kick-started hopes of peace in the Middle East. But today, the idea of a two-state solution seems further away than ever before.Maha Nassar, Associate Professor in the School of Middle Eastern and North African Studies, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2130032023-09-12T11:29:54Z2023-09-12T11:29:54ZOslo accords: 30 years on, the dream of a two-state solution seems further away than ever<p>It has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/27/opinion/israel-saudi-arabia-biden.html">widely reported</a> that as a condition for a potential Saudi-US-Israel deal the Israelis will commit to making gestures towards a <a href="https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-758490">two-state solution</a>. This was the original vision, 30 years ago, when the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1993-2000/oslo">Oslo accords</a> were signed, when it seemed that a Palestinian state recognised by, and living side-by-side with Israel, might indeed be a realistic prospect by the end of the 20th century.</p>
<p>Now, in the third decade of the 21st century, the Palestinian leadership merely hopes for some more of the occupied West Bank to be <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-66734638">handed over to its control</a>. A sovereign Palestinian state does not seem to be on the agenda. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1993-2000/oslo">Oslo accords</a>, which were secretly negotiated between the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) and the Israeli government between 1992 and 1993, provided for three phases of negotiations. The first involved a <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1994-05-14-mn-57636-story.html">withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Jericho area</a> in the West Bank and most of Gaza together with the creation of institutions for <a href="https://imeu.org/article/fact-sheet-the-palestinian-authority">Palestinian self-government</a>. </p>
<p>Second there would be an interim agreement which would create an elected Palestinian Council and expand the area under its direct control. Third there would be permanent status talks to resolve the difficult issues of the status of Jerusalem, settlements, refugees, borders and relations with neighbouring states. </p>
<p>But when these issues were eventually discussed at the <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2018/07/israeli-palestinian-peacemaking/camp-david-approach-2000">Camp David talks in 2000</a>, neither Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat or Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak could rise to the occasion and strike a deal. </p>
<p>This was no doubt due to the ambiguity of the accords on questions of self-determination and statehood. The text referred to “<a href="https://www.peaceagreements.org/view/34">mutual legitimate and political rights</a>”. But while Israel and the PLO recognised each other, it was as negotiating parties rather than as partners with legitimacy and the right to self-determination exercised through two sovereign states. </p>
<p>In 1993 there was much talk about the creation of a new Middle East which would be part of the post-cold war world order. The ambiguities of the Oslo accords would be resolved by good faith negotiations in an atmosphere where many talked about the “peace dividend”.</p>
<h2>Things fall apart</h2>
<p>But there was a darker side to the early 1990s. The Balkan wars (1991-1995) were markedly violent conflicts which were the product of xenophobia, racism and religious extremism. As the 1990s progressed it was these features, rather than a peaceful democratic dispensation, which characterised the post-communist world. </p>
<p>For Israel and Palestine, the optimism present in 1993 was to dissipate with rising violence. Within three years we saw the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cszmsk">assassination of Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin</a> by a Jewish terrorist, the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/february/25/newsid_4167000/4167929.stm">massacre of Muslims</a> while praying in Hebron by an Israeli settler and Hamas <a href="https://1997-2001.state.gov/global/terrorism/1996Report/middle.html">suicide terrorist attacks</a> against Israeli civilians in February and March 1996. By May 1996 the Israeli government that had negotiated the Oslo accords had been defeated at the polls by Benjamin Netanyahu who announced he would “lower Palestinian expectations”. </p>
<p>In the years since, there has been the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/middle_east/03/v3_ip_timeline/html/2000.stm">second intifada</a> (2000-2004), the reoccupation by Israel of the West Bank (beginning in autumn 2000) and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-israel-history-confrontation-2021-05-14/">three wars between Hamas and Israel</a>. The Palestinian leadership has fractured, with Fatah (the main component of the PLO) running the West Bank while Hamas is in control of Gaza.</p>
<p>Israeli politics, meanwhile, has moved sharply to the right. This has included 12 years of populist Netanyahu governments and, since the 2022 elections, the formation of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/israeli-elections-benjamin-netanhayu-set-to-return-with-some-extreme-new-partners-193814">extreme rightwing government</a> containing ministers who are openly racist – some of them even convicted of anti-Palestinian terrorism.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/israeli-elections-benjamin-netanhayu-set-to-return-with-some-extreme-new-partners-193814">Israeli elections: Benjamin Netanhayu set to return – with some extreme new partners</a>
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<h2>Elusive dream</h2>
<p>A paradox of the past 30 years has been that while the negotiations promised by Oslo have failed, the Palestinian institutions created by the Oslo process have persisted. </p>
<p>The Palestinian Authority created by the <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/israelopt-cairoagreement94">Cairo Agreement in 1994</a> remains in place with Mahmoud Abbas as president. The <a href="https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/palestine_legislative_council/">Legislative Council</a> created in 1995 remains in session in Ramallah – even if there have been no elections since 2006. </p>
<p>Since 2012, the United Nations has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palestinians-statehood-idUSBRE8AR0EG20121201">recognised Palestine as a state</a>. It is now recognised by about 140 countries and has joined international organisations only open to states, such as the <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/palestine">International Criminal Court</a>. </p>
<p>It has also been the case that there have been some initiatives to improve the situation. In 2005, then prime minister Ariel Sharon <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/israel/israel-begins-forced-evacuation-gaza-settlers">removed Israeli settlers and troops from Gaza</a>. Whether he had a plan for a deal with the Palestinians we shall never know, as he collapsed and died shortly after. </p>
<p>His successor Ehud Olmert offered Abbas a <a href="https://www.jpost.com/diplomacy-and-politics/details-of-olmerts-peace-offer-to-palestinians-exposed-314261">comprehensive plan for a Palestinian state</a> in 2008, but the Palestinian president <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-admits-he-rejected-2008-peace-offer-from-olmert/">walked away from it</a>.</p>
<p>A resolution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has proved elusive due to a combination of the specific issues and the xenophobic age in which we live. Oslo offered an opportunity which could have worked if only both sides could break with traditions of mutual denial of the national aspirations of the other. </p>
<p>In December 1995, I stood in the streets of Ramallah and watched as a Palestinian procession reclaimed the city from the Israeli occupiers. It was a glimpse of a possible future. The enthusiasm of the crowds for emancipation underlines what is possible when two peoples recognise that each has the right to self-determination. </p>
<p>The recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/israels-democracy-protests-what-happens-next-211723">mass pro-democracy movement in Israel</a> offers a possible turning point against populism and xenophobia. However it needs to grow into a movement that can not only save Israeli democracy from the attacks of the right but also from the corrupting influence of 56 years of occupation. It will only be successful if it liberates both Israel and Palestine.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213003/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Strawson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When Yasser Arafat and Yitshak Rabin shook hands on the White House lawn in September 1993 it looked as if Israel and Palestine might achieve a lasting peace. Three decades on this remains a dream.John Strawson, Honorary Professor of Law and director of LLM programs, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2100442023-08-30T12:17:52Z2023-08-30T12:17:52ZGovernors may make good presidents − unless they become ‘imperial governors’ like DeSantis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544785/original/file-20230825-17-4q4pb7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2635%2C8188%2C2684&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Of the eight Republicans on stage at the party's first presidential debate, six were current or former governors.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidates-former-arkansas-gov-asa-news-photo/1621999903">Joshua Lott/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many people believe governors make good presidents. In fact, a 2016 Gallup Poll found that almost <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/189119/state-governor-best-experience-presidency.aspx">74% of people</a> say that governing a state provides excellent or good preparation for someone to be an effective president. As a result, many political commentators have tried to explain why Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is stumbling in his campaign for president. </p>
<p>Some say it is because he is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/us/politics/ron-desantis-campaign-challenges.html">stiff or awkward on the campaign trail</a>, or his path to the nomination is not really to the political right of former President Donald Trump, or he needs to step up and directly confront the former president.</p>
<p>But as the former executive director of the <a href="https://www.nga.org/">National Governors Association</a> for 27 years, I have worked with well over 300 governors. During that time I have been part of many conversations with governors regarding other governors running for president. So I know that some current and former governors on both sides of the aisle would have another reason for why DeSantis is stalling. If you were to ask them, I expect they would mostly smile and say quietly, “It is because he has become an imperial governor” – one who believes he is all-powerful and that all his decisions will be just applauded and never questioned or opposed.</p>
<h2>A dominant position</h2>
<p>Unlike presidents, who are seldom able to politically dominate Washington, D.C., many governors can dominate their states – so much so that some begin to believe they can do nothing wrong. Essentially, they believe they can do anything. </p>
<p>That experience often creates a false impression that what they did in their states they can do for the nation. A recent Miami Herald opinion article called DeSantis an <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article277104213.html">anti-woke, anti-LGBTQ+ politician</a> who has become known for fighting drag queens, critical race theory and Disney.</p>
<p>These are not exactly issues important to citizens of most other states and thus not useful as a foundation for a presidential campaign. This is clearly reflected in a recent New York Times poll of Republicans, where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/06/us/politics/woke-republicans-poll.html">only 17% supported an anti-woke campaign</a>, while 65% supported a law-and-order campaign.</p>
<h2>Significant power</h2>
<p>Governors traditionally have more constitutional and legal powers than do presidents, particularly in terms of budgets and in cases of emergency.</p>
<p>In fact, former governors Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were known to remark, when they were president, that they <a href="https://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/02/01/UPI-Spot-News-Weekender-Line-item-veto-on-Reagan-wish-list-again/1481539154000/">wished they had the budget powers</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/supcourt/stories/wp062698.htm">they had</a> <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/03/text/20060306-7.html">when they were governor</a>. Often, I heard these comments during discussions with governors at National Governors Association meetings.</p>
<p>To reduce federal spending, Congress and the president must agree.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/4082783-line-item-veto-explained/">most governors have line-item veto authority</a> over budgets, allowing them to strike funding for specific programs, subject only to the override by a super-majority of the legislature.</p>
<p>Similarly, many governors can <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/03/how-states-can-manage-midyear-budget-gaps">cut previously enacted state budgets by up to 5%</a> without consent from the legislature.</p>
<p>Some governors can even spend federal funds sent to the state without legislative approval. For instance, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a Republican, unilaterally expanded Medicaid eligibility in his state in 2013 under the Affordable Care Act – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/22/us/medicaid-expansion-is-set-for-ohioans.html">over the objections of his fellow GOP members</a> who controlled the state General Assembly.</p>
<p>By contrast, President Joe Biden has struggled to <a href="https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/supreme-court-rejects-student-loan-relief-plan/2023/06">reduce the burden of student loan debt</a>, and, in fact, his plan was overturned by the Supreme Court.</p>
<p>Governors also typically have more power than presidents during emergencies. During the pandemic, <a href="https://nashp.org/states-covid-19-public-health-emergency-declarations/">all 50 governors declared states of emergency</a> that allowed them to expand health care workers’ ability to provide care, reducing hospitals’ and doctors’ liability to lawsuits, and protected consumers from price gouging on necessities. They were also able to require certain groups of people to wear masks and get vaccinated, and even shut down bars and restaurants for periods of time. </p>
<p>When then-President Trump declared a <a href="https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/">federal COVID-19 emergency</a>, his powers were largely restricted to the health care programs that the federal government administers, such as Medicare and Medicaid, and efforts by the Department of Health and Human Services.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a vest swings a baseball bat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544787/original/file-20230825-21-tmcf8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis swings a baseball bat during a presidential campaign stop in Iowa in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024DeSantis/3e78128c336546f3b3cb79f4894e0589/photo">AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Political prominence</h2>
<p>Governors often are the dominant political force in their states. They particularly tend to overshadow the legislative and judicial branches – which significantly limit the power of the president at the federal level. </p>
<p>Governors dominate the legislature, in part, because state lawmakers tend to have <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/about-state-legislatures/size-of-state-legislative-staff">very few staff</a> to help them – if any at all. By contrast, U.S. House members each have <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R43947">about 18 staff members</a>,
and senators average about 40 staffers.</p>
<p>And that doesn’t include committee staff members or the support organizations of the <a href="https://www.usa.gov/agencies/congressional-research-service">Congressional Research Service</a>, the <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/">Congressional Budget Office</a> and the <a href="https://www.gao.gov/">Government Accountability Office</a>, which work for committees and members.</p>
<p>In addition, most state legislators are part time and may only be in session a few weeks per year. The commonwealth of Virginia is like many states, <a href="https://www.djj.virginia.gov/pages/about-djj/legislative-process.htm">only meeting for 60 days</a> in even years and 30 days in odd years – though those sessions are often extended by up to 15 days.</p>
<p>It is also true that many governors have legislatures with huge majorities of the same party, which often minimizes any opposition. In Florida, for instance, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/2023_Florida_legislative_session">28 of the 40 senators are Republican</a>, and 85 of the 120 House members are as well. This adds up to a veto-proof majority for DeSantis. </p>
<p>Governors tend to dominate state supreme courts, too. Most states’ justices, who are typically appointed by the governor, have <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Length_of_terms_of_state_supreme_court_justice">both term limits and age limits</a>, which means turnover is much more rapid. Therefore, states’ top judges are more likely to have been appointed by the current sitting governor – as opposed to the federal Supreme Court, where <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-judicial-branch/">judges have life appointments</a> and can serve through many presidencies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman smiles while holding a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544807/original/file-20230825-15-1rmqq5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley speaks during a presidential campaign event in Iowa in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024AbortionCandidates/f3b2a649196d48319450820fe8556d85/photo">AP Photo/Jeff Roberson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A matter of timing</h2>
<p>A governor most often begins to view himself as imperial during the first couple of years after a very successful reelection – and only in states with large populations.</p>
<p>The last governor that I remember who reached imperial status was <a href="https://www.nga.org/governor/scott-walker/">Scott Walker</a>, Wisconsin’s governor from 2011 to 2019. He ran for president in 2016 but <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/scott-walker-2016-drops-out-213894">withdrew after only two months</a> because of his poor showing in the polls.</p>
<p>This year, in addition to DeSantis, five other former or current governors have declared they are running for president. And at least one is still considering doing so. But most of them are not imperial governors nor at risk of becoming one.</p>
<p>Mike Pence, the former governor of Indiana, never became imperial because he never ran for reelection. Instead, he was chosen by Donald Trump to be his vice president. In addition, many in his party believe he would have had <a href="https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/05/27/gov-mike-pence-facing-tough-re-election-afte-social-issues-stands/85023730/">difficulty in his bid for reelection</a>.</p>
<p>Former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey never reached imperial status because he governed in a state where the legislature was dominated by the opposite party. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson served in a very small state, with only 3 million people. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley also served in a small state, of 5 million people. Any power she might have carried from the governorship into a run for the presidency has dissipated in the six years she has been out of office, including serving as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota serves in an even smaller state, with less than a million people. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is reportedly <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/08/15/virginia-voters-glenn-youngkin-2024/70549023007/">still considering a run</a>.</p>
<p>DeSantis, by contrast, is a second-term governor of a large state. Florida is the <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/state-by-state/florida-population-change-between-census-decade.html">third most-populated state</a>, with <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/FL/PST045222">22.2 million residents</a> as of July 2022. And in 2022, <a href="https://www.wuft.org/news/2022/11/08/desantis-wins-2022-florida-governors-race-by-largest-margin-in-40-years/">DeSantis won reelection in a landslide</a> with <a href="https://www.politico.com/2022-election/results/florida/statewide-offices/">59.4% of the vote</a>.</p>
<p>The state legislature is dominated by people of the same political party, and DeSantis has appointed <a href="https://www.wptv.com/news/state/desantis-appoints-fifth-justice-to-current-state-supreme-court-meredith-sasso">five of the seven justices</a> on the state supreme court.</p>
<p>There is no question that <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-poll-indictments-2023-08-20/">Trump’s recent indictments</a> have made him a stronger candidate for the nomination. Whether this strength will last is unclear as the court cases play out.</p>
<p>But if DeSantis continues to be an imperial governor, he will not be able to take advantage of any erosion in support for the former president and risks being just a footnote in the 2024 race – and may have to forget about 2028 as well.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210044/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raymond Scheppach does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A former executive director of the National Governors Association explains what it is about certain governors that makes them less suited for the presidency.Raymond Scheppach, Professor of Public Policy, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081832023-06-22T12:32:46Z2023-06-22T12:32:46ZA brief history of colorful presidential relatives, from Alice Roosevelt to Hunter Biden<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533253/original/file-20230621-16-vwhm5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hunter Biden embraces his father, President Joe Biden, and his stepmother, Jill, at Biden's 2021 inauguration. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1297458688/photo/joe-biden-sworn-in-as-46th-president-of-the-united-states-at-u-s-capitol-inauguration-ceremony.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=L6V8L9WBm5riCvN0sNvEwecKJKpOJbqg9BMAPZd6gYk=">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hunter Biden, the younger son of U.S. President Joe Biden, is expected to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/20/us/hunter-biden-plea-deal">plead guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges</a> as part of a recently announced deal with the Justice Department that will help him avoid the federal charges for <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/20/hunter-biden-reaches-plea-deal-with-feds-to-resolve-tax-issues-gun-charge-00102637">possessing a gun while using illegal drugs</a>. </p>
<p>Joe Biden has long defended his son amid his <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/04/05/983385027/hunter-biden-says-his-family-never-gave-up-on-him">drug addiction</a> and other personal issues, including a paternity scandal and ongoing <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/05/01/hunter-biden-paternity-case-arkansas-judge-orders-presidents-son-to-answer-questions-about-finances/?sh=43a3d85f15ee#:%7E:text=Biden%20did%20not%20contest%20the,drug%20addiction%20at%20the%20time">court battle over child support</a>. </p>
<p>The president responded to the news of Hunter’s charges, saying on June 20, 2023, that he is <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/joe-biden-briefly-addresses-hunter-biden-plea-deal-18162124.phpe">“very proud of my son”</a>. </p>
<p>I am <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_khILTgAAAAJ&hl=en">a scholar of the American presidency</a> and have looked at how the children and other family members of presidents have been thrust into the nation’s spotlight, often unwittingly. Their shortcomings, vices and sometimes <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2008/sep/02/women.johnmccain">even physical appearance</a> have been fodder for gossip columns, political opponents and comedians. </p>
<p>Hunter Biden is not the first child of a president to be charged with a crime. Jenna and Barbara Bush <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/07/us/jenna-bush-fined-for-alcohol-use.html">pleaded “no contest” in 2001 </a> to misdemeanor charges of underage drinking and using a false ID. Amy Carter was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1987/04/16/us/amy-carter-is-acquitted-over-protest.html">arrested for protesting</a> in 1985, and before his father was president, Donald Trump Jr. was arrested for public <a href="https://politicalwire.com/2020/07/13/donald-trump-jr-s-arrest-records-now-public/">drunkenness in 2001.</a></p>
<p>But nearly all presidents have had incidents involving their kids and other family members that attracted public scrutiny. Some of the events fall into questionable prank category, like when Tad Lincoln, the son of Abraham Lincoln, sprayed <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-history-of-pardoning-turkeys-began-with-tad-lincoln-141137570/">dignitaries with fire hoses</a>.</p>
<p>Other incidents are less innocuous and amusing. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533265/original/file-20230621-23-6b3y9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A family photo shows a man and a woman seated, surrounded by six children ranging in age from toddler to teen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533265/original/file-20230621-23-6b3y9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533265/original/file-20230621-23-6b3y9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533265/original/file-20230621-23-6b3y9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533265/original/file-20230621-23-6b3y9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533265/original/file-20230621-23-6b3y9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533265/original/file-20230621-23-6b3y9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533265/original/file-20230621-23-6b3y9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A colorized portrait of former President Theodore Roosevelt’s family features his oldest daughter, Alice, in the center.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/114955342/photo/portrait-of-president-roosevelt-his-family.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=DOyHQaN_1teHutbSnYcHhZMVH0IqvVa8wDhldojAx68=">Stock Montage/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Youthful indiscretions</h2>
<p>James Madison raised his troubled stepson, John Payne Todd, as his own. Todd regularly engaged in <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/the-bad-boy">gambling, drinking and womanizing</a>. Madison went deeply into debt trying to pay off Todd’s vices, including once bailing him out of <a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Madison/04-03-02-0659">debtor’s prison</a>. In the mid-1800s, <a href="https://rotunda.upress.virginia.edu/dmde/editorialnote.xqy?note=n16">Todd’s debts eventually forced</a> his widowed mother to <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/dolley-madisons-life">sell the family estate, Montpelier</a>.</p>
<p>Todd even had a lawyer visit his mother on her deathbed to <a href="https://featherschwartzfoster.blog/2019/04/15/dolley-madisons-son-payne-todd-the-final-blow/">rewrite her will</a>, making himself her sole heir.</p>
<p>Alice Roosevelt, the oldest child of Theodore Roosevelt, also presented some complications for her father during his presidency in the early 1900s. </p>
<p>Alice had a strained relationship with her father and his second wife, Edith. When her parents <a href="https://reagan.blogs.archives.gov/2023/04/17/white-house-kids-series-alice-roosevelt-longworth/">suggested sending her to a boarding school,</a> Alice responded: “If you send me, I will humiliate you. I will do something that will shame you. I tell you I will.” </p>
<p>In a time when women were expected to be demur, Alice smoked, drank, partied and even sometimes <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/from-a-white-house-wedding-to-a-pet-snake-alice-roosevelts-escapades-captivated-america-180981139/">wore a pet snake as an accessory</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nps.gov/people/alice-roosevelt-longworth.htm">Theodore Roosevelt once said, </a> “I can do one of two things: I can be president of the United States or I can control Alice Roosevelt. I cannot possibly do both.” </p>
<p>Alice was later banned from the Taft White House after <a href="https://historianandrew.medium.com/the-presidents-daughter-banned-from-the-white-house-because-of-the-voodoo-doll-she-hid-there-abbc38307c3c">burying a voodoo doll</a> in the likeness of the new first lady, Helen Herron Taft, on the property.</p>
<p>Neil Bush, son of George H.W. Bush and brother to George W. Bush, also has a colorful history. </p>
<p>Neil was the director of a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1990/09/22/business/fdic-sues-neil-bush-and-others-at-silverado.html">large savings and loans company </a> that collapsed in 1988, after it made improper and illegal loans. This cost taxpayers more than US$1 billion at the time and <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1991-05-30-mn-3760-story.html">resulted in an embarrassing payout to federal banking regulators</a>.</p>
<p>People also criticized Neil because of his ties to Chinese investors and his limited knowledge about industries that employed him, leading to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/11/25/bush.brother.reut/">accusations of influence peddling</a>.</p>
<p>Neil Bush, like Hunter Biden, was also the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/11/25/bush.brother.reut/">subject of paternity accusations</a> during his divorce.</p>
<h2>That’s my brother</h2>
<p>Presidential brothers have been another particular sore point for some presidents. </p>
<p>Lyndon Johnson’s brother, Sam Houston Johnson, was often quite talkative after he had a few drinks. The president eventually had to use the Secret Service to follow his brother to ensure he didn’t <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/WolfFiles/story?id=90138&page=1">disclose any embarrassing information to the press </a>.</p>
<p>Billy Carter, former President Jimmy Carter’s brother, reveled in his notoriety. As the president’s brother, he toured the country <a href="https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/26695/billy-beer-reason-billy-carter-quit-drinking">to make money</a> and hawk his own Billy Beer.</p>
<p>He <a href="https://www.upi.com/Archives/1988/09/25/Billy-Carter-the-carefree-good-old-boy-brother-of/9930591163200/">urinated on a runway</a> before the press corps while waiting for people. </p>
<p>When Carter was running for reelection in 1980, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/WolfFiles/story?id=90138&page=1">Billy took money</a> from the Libyan government and became a <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/1980/0801/080150.html">foreign agent for the country</a> – while also <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1979/01/12/white-house-disassociates-itself-from-billys-remarks/a85df119-ed28-441e-a448-af3f9766eb79/">making inflammatory and antisemitic statements</a> to justify his behavior.</p>
<p>Billy’s association with Libya ultimately led to a Senate investigation and <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/961015.pdf">complicated his brother’s failed reelection campaign</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533268/original/file-20230621-21-17g7y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The side profiles of two men are seen as they have their arms around each other - one is Bill Clinton and the other is a man wearing a white hat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533268/original/file-20230621-21-17g7y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533268/original/file-20230621-21-17g7y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533268/original/file-20230621-21-17g7y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533268/original/file-20230621-21-17g7y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533268/original/file-20230621-21-17g7y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533268/original/file-20230621-21-17g7y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533268/original/file-20230621-21-17g7y8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Bill Clinton comforts his half-brother Roger in 1994, shortly after their mother’s death.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/51607186/photo/u-s-president-bill-clinton-comforts-his-half.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=qAhkpjleuXF8jvjSlaqK6NL19d8RF15Al3Etif1G3ag=">POOL/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Roger Clinton, the younger half-brother of former President Bill Clinton, also engaged in questionable activities. In the 1980s, before the Clinton presidency, Roger <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/06/millennials-meet-roger-clinton-hillarys-brother-in-law-who-just-got-arrested-once-again/">sold cocaine to an undercover officer</a>. </p>
<p>Later, during the Clinton administration, Roger’s Secret Service <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/07/secret-service-best-code-names">codename was “Headache.”</a> </p>
<p>Bill Clinton pardoned Roger for <a href="https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-william-j-clinton-1993-2001">his drug offenses</a> right before leaving office in January 2001. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533269/original/file-20230621-19-hyrkwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hunter Biden and Joe Biden, both wearing suits, stand next to each other, with their arms crossed." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533269/original/file-20230621-19-hyrkwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533269/original/file-20230621-19-hyrkwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533269/original/file-20230621-19-hyrkwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533269/original/file-20230621-19-hyrkwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533269/original/file-20230621-19-hyrkwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533269/original/file-20230621-19-hyrkwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533269/original/file-20230621-19-hyrkwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hunter Biden stands next to his father, President Joe Biden, at an event in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/520751670/photo/world-food-program-usas-2016-mcgovern-dole-leadership-award-ceremony.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=ESaHozhGT5igTG5Cz6oIUiSa8T8kMXH6y7DO4QaeMBA=">Kris Connor/WireImage</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Keeping it in the family</h2>
<p>Presidents are like everyone else. They, too, have family members who do or say things that eventually become stories for the dinner table – or tales people want to push under the rug. </p>
<p>A federal judge still <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2023/0620/What-s-in-Hunter-Biden-s-plea-deal-and-what-happens-next">needs to approve Hunter Biden’s deal</a> with the Justice Department that would allow him to avoid prison time for paying $1 million in taxes late and possessing a gun. </p>
<p>And he is still not free of other controversies. The Republican-controlled House continues to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/20/politics/charges-against-hunter-biden-what-matters/index.html">investigate his bank records,</a> as well as <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/republicans-are-using-financial-records-to-investigate-hunter-biden-heres-how">lingering questions about money</a> he received from <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/analysis-hunter-bidens-hard-drive-shows-firm-took-11-million-2013-2018-rcna29462">foreign organizations</a>. </p>
<p>Hunter himself has said that he is accountable for his actions, and I do not think it is fair to conflate the administration with the activities of an adult son.</p>
<p>He is not the first presidential relative who has caused turmoil, and he won’t be the last.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shannon Bow O'Brien does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Presidents have family drama, like all other people. Hunter Biden is simply the latest example of a family member who has brought negative attention to a president’s administration.Shannon Bow O'Brien, Associate Professor of Instruction, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2053692023-05-24T12:18:30Z2023-05-24T12:18:30ZTurkey’s Erdoğan took a page from US presidents and boosted reelection campaign by claiming to have killed a terrorist<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527549/original/file-20230522-4578-qb5exw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C12%2C8013%2C5314&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Man on track: Turkish President Erdoğan, center, did better in his reelection campaign than predicted.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/turkish-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-attends-the-debut-of-news-photo/1252478070?adppopup=true">Emin Sansar/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan claimed credit on April 30, 2023, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/1/erdogan-says-turkey-has-killed-suspected-isil-leader">for killing</a> Islamic State group leader Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi in Syria, it may not have been simply a straightforward announcement of victory over the leader of a terrorist group. </p>
<p>History suggests the operation against al-Qurashi could have been an effort to boost Erdoğan’s reelection campaign.</p>
<p>When the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/5/15/turkey-election-results-live-run-off-likely-with-erdogan-leading">results from Turkey’s presidential election</a> on May 14, 2023, came in, they showed no clear winner. Neither long-serving President Erdoğan nor the main challenger, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, won 50% of the votes. But Erdoğan came close and did better than predicted. Polls leading up to the election <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/03/14/turkey-opinion-poll-tracker-erdogan-vs-kilicdaroglu">had shown Kılıçdaroğlu consistently leading by 5 to 10 percentage points</a>. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-election-runoff-2023-what-you-need-know-2023-05-18/">A runoff is scheduled</a> for May 28.</p>
<p>So what changed and how did Erdoğan make up so much ground so quickly?</p>
<p>One answer is Erdoğan’s <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2380151">political use of counterterrorism</a>. </p>
<h2>Tough conditions for reelection</h2>
<p>Leading up to the election, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/turkey/overview">Turkey’s domestic economy was in decline</a>. Erdoğan’s tenure appeared uncertain because of a series of political missteps. It was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/14/erdogans-grip-on-power-tested-as-turkey-goes-to-the-polls">a difficult path to reelection</a>. </p>
<p>Adding to these hurdles, Erdoğan <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/28/1172836561/turkeys-erdogan-cancels-election-appearances-after-falling-ill">had to demonstrate he was healthy enough</a> to continue in office. He had <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65409951">fallen ill when he was on TV</a> on April 27 and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/29/erdogan-returns-from-three-day-campaign-absence-due-to-illness">suspended his campaign for three days</a>. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=mX4CH8cAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientists</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=g0xQ--gAAAAJ&hl=en">who study</a> foreign policy decision-making, we know that, faced with such scenarios, elected leaders are often motivated to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111408">gamble for resurrection</a> by <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3693556">demonstrating strength</a>, resolve and capability. They do this through a kind of aggressive foreign policy known in our field as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1958273">political use of force</a>, or <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111653">diversionary use of force</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large white building with rubble near it and farm fields behind it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527552/original/file-20230522-25-ua8yux.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The building in Syria where Turkey claims it killed the so-called leader of the Daesh/ISIS terrorist organization, al-Qurashi, in an operation carried out by the Turkish National Intelligence Organization.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-aerial-view-of-the-building-where-the-so-called-leader-news-photo/1252469437?adppopup=true">Bekir Kasim/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ultimate diversion</h2>
<p>Leaders who undertake this kind of action hope a successful military endeavor will divert the public’s attention from the administration’s domestic shortcomings. </p>
<p>Such shortcomings come in a variety of forms – high unemployment, high inflation, a stalled legislative agenda or even political scandal. These leaders have little power to rectify the problems alone, and the incentive to use military force is heightened further by the uncertainty of an approaching election. </p>
<p>This is not only a theoretical argument. In the U.S., presidents are more likely to break covert mission protocol and claim credit from <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2380151">successful drone strikes</a> when they have political incentives to distract the public from a weak economy or negative domestic debates.</p>
<p>Historically – and routinely – national leaders have attempted to garner political support through the use of military force that predictably boosts domestic sentiments of nationalism and patriotism. For example, President George H.W. Bush’s 1989 invasion of Panama aimed to “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/48608710">cure his political image problems at home</a>,” as political scientist Jane Kellett Cramer wrote. </p>
<p>At the height of his impeachment scandal in 1998, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45346926">President Bill Clinton ordered counterterrorism airstrikes</a> against al-Qaida. The 2011 U.S. <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/19/barack-obama-libya-airstrikes-1224550">airstrikes on Libya were ordered</a> by President Barack Obama in the depths of economic turmoil – high unemployment and a negative economic growth rate.</p>
<p>This phenomenon extends beyond the U.S. In May 1978, Belgium faced an economic crisis. Uniformed soldiers were protesting on the streets. Government was gridlocked. Prime Minister Leo Tindermans <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4621715">tried to overcome those problems by deploying soldiers</a> to evacuate Europeans threatened by fighting in the Democratic Republic of Congo, then called Zaire. </p>
<p>In 1982, Argentina’s military junta was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410601028354">facing escalating public disorder and declining support</a>. President Leopoldo Galtieri announced the country’s invasion of the Falkland Islands and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/9780804784931-006">crowds cheered on the streets</a>. </p>
<p>But the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2020.1693618">junta overlooked</a> British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s own domestic political turmoil. The British military quickly responded and retook the islands. Thatcher flaunted the successful operation, rallying the British public behind her government.</p>
<h2>A new frontier</h2>
<p>Studying political use of force is notoriously difficult for a variety of reasons. Not all presidents have the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/106591299604900306">opportunity</a> to use force abroad. And when political leaders are under pressure and most likely to seek a diversion with an attack, potential targets often de-escalate to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00123">avoid confrontation</a>.</p>
<p>But counterterrorism efforts have created a unique scenario in which there is always opportunity to strike. Successful operations against terrorist targets produce a comparatively pronounced increase in public support.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211019904">Our research</a> investigates modern-day counterterrorism tactics, which we find can generate a larger bump in approval than traditional military operations. </p>
<p>In an experiment, we asked a sample of Americans to evaluate their support for a president in office during a declining economy and increasing unemployment. The approval ratings were predictably quite low. </p>
<p>Approval ratings increased under those same domestic conditions when respondents were also informed that a successful counterterrorism operation had just occurred. And when the counterterrorism operation involved a drone strike, and thus little risk to service members, support was at its highest and changed from disapproval to approval of the president’s performance.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A huge crowd, with many carrying red flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527553/original/file-20230522-14734-sl0ado.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters wave flags and chant slogans while waiting for CHP Party presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to arrive at a campaign rally on April 30, 2023, in Izmir, Turkey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-wave-flags-and-chant-slogans-while-waiting-for-news-photo/1486600794?adppopup=true">Burak Kara/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>For Erdoğan, favorable timing and conditions</h2>
<p>Erdoğan’s claim of the targeted killing of the Islamic State’s al-Qurashi fits the profile of political use of counterterrorism in two important ways: Turkey’s domestic economic and political conditions and the strike’s timing. </p>
<p>In the lead-up to the 2023 presidential election, with the domestic economy in decline, his physical health questioned and a credible challenger, Erdoğan was faced with an extraordinarily tough reelection environment. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Recep-Tayyip-Erdogan">Erdoğan was first elected in 2014</a>. Since then, Turkey has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-election-runoff-2023-what-you-need-know-2023-05-18/">seesawed between economic expansion and decline</a>. Erdoğan championed Turkish nationalism and religious identity and escalated ethnic <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-turkey-and-armed-kurdish-groups">tensions with the Kurdish minority</a> – including conflict with and counterterrorism against the Kurdish groups known as PKK. Erdoğan has sometimes played an <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/13/turkey-erdogan-nato-crucial-corrosive-ally/">oversize role in international politics</a> and at others times has been a political pariah, particularly after <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/7/15/turkeys-failed-coup-attempt-all-you-need-to-know">his response to the 2016 coup</a> attempt.</p>
<p>Since May 2022, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/we-cant-afford-anything-turkeys-cost-of-living-crisis-threatens-erdogans-re-2023-05-08/">currency devaluation</a> has created a significant cost-of-living problem in Turkey. The Turkish lira has declined by nearly 27% against the euro and slightly over 22% against the U.S. dollar. The weak economy and socioeconomic struggles were <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/10/turkey-erdogan-economy-election-earthquake-recovery/">exacerbated by earthquakes in February 2023</a> that caused extraordinary human and physical destruction. </p>
<p>Erdoğan is the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/13/turkey-syria-earthquake-erdogan-elections-negligence/">face of government corruption</a> and inadequate oversight and regulation of construction contracts blamed for the devastation. </p>
<p>And the <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkish-president-erdogans-grip-on-power-threatened-by-devastating-earthquake-200033">government is criticized</a> for <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/01/turkey-erdogan-earthquake-apk-strongman-authoritarianism-democracy-military-disaster-relief/">slow and insufficient disaster response</a> and relief operations. </p>
<p>While Erdoğan is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-20-year-rule-of-recep-tayyip-erdogan-has-transformed-turkey-188211">criticized and lauded</a> for many <a href="https://apnews.com/article/turkey-elections-issues-erdogan-947c641990cb6a88d9c332fca184e062">domestic</a> and <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/turkeys-growing-foreign-policy-ambitions">international policies</a>, the domestic issues are potentially insurmountable and are difficult to solve through standard policymaking.</p>
<p>The targeted killing of al-Qurashi was announced three days after Erdoğan fell sick on national TV and the same day he returned to the campaign trail. The counterterrorism strike created an opportunity for Erdoğan to focus domestic attention on his national security credentials, his role in the anti-Islamic State coalition, and his abilities to be an authoritative and strong leader. </p>
<p>Counterterrorism has long played a pivotal role in Turkish politics. An <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2021.1940457">analysis of Turkey-PKK conflict data</a> from 2004 to 2018 shows that when the Turkish government was challenged by domestic economic decline and needed to generate political support, the number of Turkish Armed Forces operations against the PKK increased. </p>
<p><a href="https://dronewars.net/tag/turkey/">Turkey’s</a> <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09592318.2020.1743488">rapid proliferation</a> and <a href="https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/reports/world-drones/the-future-of-drone-warfare-striking-at-home/">use of weaponized drone technology</a> could usher in more political uses of counterterrorism. Indeed, al-Qurashi’s targeted killing in the midst of a looming, uncertain election fits this model perfectly. Erdoğan’s gambit could very well secure his reelection. And the May 14 election suggests it almost worked.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205369/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Invading, attacking and killing adversaries abroad can boost the political prospects of leaders doing poorly at home.Graig Klein, Assistant Professor of Terrorism & Political Violence, Leiden UniversityScott Boddery, Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Law, Gettysburg CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2051782023-05-12T12:20:16Z2023-05-12T12:20:16ZA brief history of debt ceiling crises and the political chaos they’ve unleashed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525714/original/file-20230511-17-v7jrtw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C5%2C3988%2C2850&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With the House GOP and President Joe Biden locked in a struggle over the debt limit, it's dark times in the U.S. Capitol.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dramatic-clouds-over-the-u-s-capitol-as-the-congress-faces-news-photo/1246606510?adppopup=true">Bill O'Leary/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A draft agreement to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/27/debt-ceiling-talks/">raise the debt limit, cap federal spending and stave off a default</a> has been announced by Republican and White House negotiators.</p>
<p>Republicans and Democrats in the House now must review the deal. How they <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/27/us/politics/debt-limit-deal.html">vote on it</a> will determine whether there will be a resolution to the long-running standoff, or the U.S. will plunge into an unprecedented fiscal crisis. </p>
<p>There have been numerous fiscal crises in the United States where Congress has either failed to pass a budget on time or there were doubts that the federal debt ceiling would be raised, which could cause the U.S. to default on its debt. </p>
<p>These two kinds of crises can sometimes play out at the same time. A federal budget was not adopted in time, for example, and there were threats of not increasing the debt ceiling.</p>
<p><a href="https://millercenter.org/sites/default/files/2017-01/CV%20Scheppach.pdf">I worked as</a> the deputy director of the Congressional Budget Office and the executive director of the National Governors Association, and I witnessed firsthand much of the wrangling in Congress during these crises. </p>
<p>Since 1976, there have been <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/04/27/why-is-federal-spending-so-hard-to-cut-recurring-debt-ceiling-fights-will-only-be-solved-by-budget-reform/">22 shutdowns of the federal government</a> due to lack of a federal budget. </p>
<p>While these were very disruptive and damaged <a href="https://policyinstitute.iu.edu/doc/mpi/insight/2013-03.pdf">the economy and employment</a>, they pale in comparison to the potential effects of failing to lift the debt ceiling, which could be <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/08/1174853895/what-happens-if-the-government-defaults-a-former-federal-reserve-economist-expla">catastrophic</a>. It could bring down the entire international financial system. This in turn could devastate the world gross domestic product and create mass unemployment. </p>
<p>Fortunately, the U.S. has never experienced a default. The <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/29/1172894580/congress-has-revised-the-debt-ceiling-78-times-since-1960-a-financial-historian-">debt ceiling has been raised 78 times since 1917</a> and currently stands at US$31.4 trillion. </p>
<p>Here are three debt-limit crises I watched play out - which not only had economic consequences, but political ones as well.</p>
<h2>1995: A GOP revolution – and blunder</h2>
<p>Often, a debt-limit crisis is preceded by an election that produces a major shift in who controls Congress. In the 1994 midterm election, during President Bill Clinton’s first term, <a href="https://library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/document.php?id=cqal94-1102765">the Republicans gained eight Senate seats and 54 seats in the House</a>, flipping both chambers. The election was seen as a Republican revolution. Bob Dole became the majority leader in the Senate, and Newt Gingrich became the speaker of the House.</p>
<p>GOP lawmakers pledged to pass a balanced budget as part of what they named their “Contract with America.” House Republicans sent Clinton a budget that <a href="https://millercenter.org/1995-96-government-shutdown">cut spending on domestic programs</a>, which he vetoed. This in turn led to a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-will-government-shutdown-last-2018-1">five-day shutdown of the federal government</a>. </p>
<p>Gingrich then threatened not to increase the debt limit. A Washington Post story described the House leader’s actions as “House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/09/22/gingrich-vows-no-retreat-on-debt-ceiling-increase/9f7c9620-e6aa-489e-8ace-3ebb27e349bc/">threatened yesterday to take the government into default</a> for the first time in history unless President Clinton bows to Republican demands for a balanced budget.” Clinton responded to the latest GOP budget offer with a second veto, which led to a longer government shutdown of 21 days.</p>
<p>In the end, the Republicans <a href="https://www.govexec.com/management/2023/02/i-helped-balance-federal-budget-1990s-heres-just-how-hard-it-will-be-gop-achieve-same-rare-feat/382443/">passed a budget offered by Clinton</a> and also lifted the debt ceiling.</p>
<p>There were unique aspects to this standoff. Dole was not interested in continuing the negotiation, as he was running for president. Gingrich made <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/11/16/underlying-gingrichs-stance-is-his-pique-about-president/cc78a470-7093-48ba-b2d0-386e0ede1372/">comments about being snubbed</a> by the president while traveling with him on Air Force One, and the press had a field day with those comments, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/a6b650344d947fc019f12343c63de231">linking the shutdown to the snub</a>. Polling increasingly showed that the <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/voters-blamed-gop-for-1995-shutdown_n_842769">Republicans were getting blamed</a> for the shutdown – a 1995 ABC poll <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/voters-blamed-gop-for-1995-shutdown_n_842769">indicated 46% blamed the Republicans</a> and only 27% blamed the Democrats. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rszHuvq4C5E?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The press and Democratic lawmakers made fun of House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s pique at what he said was a presidential snub.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2011: Budget reductions and reforms, with a side of financial chaos</h2>
<p>As in 1995, the 2011 crisis happened after an election and a major power shift on Capitol Hill. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/nov/03/us-midterm-election-results-tea-party">The election of 2010</a>, in the middle of President Barack Obama’s first term, saw the Republicans gain seven Senate seats, but not yet a majority, and a net gain of 63 House seats, making the GOP the majority. <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/07/25/debt.talks.timeline/index.html">The House then demanded</a> that Obama negotiate a deficit reduction package in exchange for raising the debt ceiling.</p>
<p>As the deadline for increasing the debt limit approached, both the U.S. domestic and even international <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/276/POTENTIAL-MACROECONOMIC-IMPACT-OF-DEBT-CEILING-BRINKMANSHIP.pdf">financial markets became chaotic</a>. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-debt-ceiling-markets-gauging-fallout-2023-02-16/">S&P 500 fell by 17%</a> and bond rates spiked. On Aug. 5, 2011, the Standard and Poor’s rating agency <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/06/business/us-debt-downgraded-by-sp.html">reduced the rating for long-term U.S government debt</a>, which could result in higher interest rates on that debt. </p>
<p>On July 31, 2011, only two days before the U.S. government ran out of money, an agreement was reached between Congress and Obama that, once enacted, became the <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R41965.pdf">Budget Control Act of 2011</a>. It reduced spending over the following 10 years by US$917 billion and authorized raising the debt ceiling to $2.1 trillion. </p>
<p>The act also included several budget reforms – a concession to Republicans by Obama and the Democrats – including creating a congressional joint select committee to make recommendations on deficit reduction. It also included an automatic provision to cut the budget should Congress fail to act.</p>
<h2>2013: ‘We got nothing’</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525718/original/file-20230511-29-qusgiv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A middle-aged man in a suit, standing in front of several US flags with his eyes closed, looking glum." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525718/original/file-20230511-29-qusgiv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525718/original/file-20230511-29-qusgiv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525718/original/file-20230511-29-qusgiv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525718/original/file-20230511-29-qusgiv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525718/original/file-20230511-29-qusgiv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525718/original/file-20230511-29-qusgiv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525718/original/file-20230511-29-qusgiv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican, on Oct. 8, 2013, the eighth day of a government shutdown over the debt limit crisis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/speaker-of-the-house-john-boehner-speaks-at-the-us-capitol-news-photo/183655358?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In January 2013, the debt ceiling that was established in 2011 was hit and the Treasury Department began extraordinary actions to continue funding necessary spending. </p>
<p>This included not paying into retirement funds of federal workers and borrowing from trust funds such as Social Security.</p>
<p>Treasury told Congress that those extraordinary measures to avoid default would be exhausted by mid-October 2013, and <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20131017174553/http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/Documents/082613%20Debt%20Limit%20Letter%20to%20Congress.pdf">the debt limit would be reached then</a>, meaning the U.S. could not borrow any more money to pay its bills.</p>
<p>At the same time, Republicans, who controlled the House, had demanded budget cuts <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/17/us/congress-budget-debate.html">as well as policy changes</a>. They wanted Obama to <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2013/09/20/224422562/house-gop-votes-to-fund-government-kill-obamacare">eliminate the funding for</a> his Affordable Care Act, which was considered his major legislative achievement. </p>
<p>The government was shut down once more, for 16 days. Again, public support for the Republican approach <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/16/senate-leaders-strike-debt-ceiling-deal-shutdown">began to erode</a>. That led the GOP to capitulate and adopt a budget that did not include significant cuts, and raised the debt ceiling, all in a vote the day before the government was slated to run out of money. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/16/senate-leaders-strike-debt-ceiling-deal-shutdown">We got nothing</a>,” said conservative Republican Rep. Thomas Massie from Kentucky.</p>
<h2>Risks to both sides</h2>
<p>Each crisis is unique and depends on the specific leaders on both sides as well as how the public reacts to the crisis.</p>
<p>History indicates there are substantial risks to both parties as well as their respective leaders in such fiscal showdowns. The 1995 crisis <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/voters-blamed-gop-for-1995-shutdown_n_842769">did not benefit Republicans</a>, and some even argue it contributed to Clinton winning reelection. </p>
<p>In 2011, I would argue that the Republicans gained substantial budget reduction and budget reform concessions from Democrats. But lack of support for the Republican position in 2013 saw them concede. </p>
<p>The 2023 crisis is like 1995 and 2011 in that it was preceded by an election that flipped the House majority. But it differs substantially in the size of that majority. With only a four-seat majority, the risks to the Republican leadership have been high. </p>
<p>As House members determine whether they will accept the deal their negotiators have settled on, the stakes for the two parties and their respective two leaders are huge. This could well affect President Joe Biden’s reelection and the longevity of the current Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy.</p>
<p><em>This story has been updated to reflect the draft deal announced on the evening of May 27, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raymond Scheppach does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>How will the House vote on the deal negotiated by the White House and GOP leaders? If they reject it, there are political as well as huge economic risks to debt standoffs in Congress.Raymond Scheppach, Professor of Public Policy, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2025842023-04-06T09:59:10Z2023-04-06T09:59:10ZGood Friday Agreement: how the US came to be a key broker in Northern Ireland’s peace deal<p>Between 1820 and 1920, four million people emigrated from Ireland to the US. Many were fleeing hunger and destitution and so brought with them an <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/emigrants-and-exiles-9780195051872?cc=gb&lang=en&">“exile” nationalism</a> – a conviction that they were forced to leave by British misgovernment and exploitation of Ireland. Little wonder, then, that the Irish diaspora in the US played a crucial role in supporting, and particularly financing, the struggle for Irish independence. </p>
<p>When the Northern Ireland conflict broke out in the late 1960s, Irish America again mobilised in support of the region’s nationalist minority community. The diaspora saw the conflict in simplistic terms, as a renewal of the fight for Irish freedom from British imperial domination. </p>
<p>Events like <a href="https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/events/bsunday/chron.htm">Bloody Sunday</a> in January 1972 – when British troops shot dead 13 civil rights protesters in Derry – understandably reinforced such views. As a result, money and even arms (more easily acquired in the US) began to flow across the Atlantic and into the IRA’s hands. In this period, therefore, Irish American actions only contributed to further bloodshed in Northern Ireland.</p>
<p>By the 1990s, the diaspora was playing quite a different role, one which was crucial to the region’s peace process and the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. There were various reasons for this. Firstly, more sensible voices had emerged in Irish America. Instead of supporting the IRA, or advocating a British withdrawal and the reunification of Ireland, they pressed for radical reform that would achieve <a href="https://academic.oup.com/dh/article/43/4/671/5518859">real equality for the nationalist minority.</a></p>
<p>Secondly, with the fall of the Berlin Wall, the global picture had drastically changed. Previously, the White House had largely avoided commenting on Northern Ireland. The US relied on the British government to contain the communist threat in Europe and would not risk offending it for fear of losing that support. But with the collapse of the Soviet Union, president Bill Clinton did not need to worry in the way that his predecessors did about damaging the Anglo-American “special relationship”. He thus listened to those in Irish America who argued that the White House should <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/30001915?casa_token=Flk9hFl3FxQAAAAA%3ACyM6j0H_YqkWijWWgmc8WpdXOfx7zKDeAhSUh3DyAFBKrejG89sdgNzW7f2Ymi4OWLt5XvKdPeZaM2wVgI7tPjkGtObtjzG0YMfnGx0TfQ9aYpYHgQ">play a role in the peace process</a> then emerging in Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>Most controversial was Clinton’s decision in January 1994 to give Gerry Adams a US visa. This came at a time when the IRA was still bombing Britain, and the Sinn Féin leader was seen by most people as an apologist for republican violence. The British government was <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/how-britain-tried-to-stop-gerry-adams-getting-us-visa-1.3739551">outraged by Clinton’s decision</a>, and John Major refused to take his calls for some time afterwards – a undeniable rarity in US-UK relations. However, when the IRA called a ceasefire six months later, Clinton appeared to be vindicated. Giving Adams a US visa had allowed the Sinn Féin leader to demonstrate to the IRA the gains that could be made by adopting a purely political strategy.</p>
<h2>Chairing tense talks</h2>
<p>Clinton then sent a trusted confidante, the recently retired US senator, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/29736367?casa_token=YvI9bryj3TAAAAAA%3AV3IhITNorIKSEsg6zKvIxCw0VpuBrnhVKuHNIDBLDD02FXStzIO94BFC5ePyCbrIu0kdSv4l_XPLMATb1S49XJD5_GwNsc4Z970q_pT3-ENq45jzKg">George Mitchell</a>, to chair peace talks in Northern Ireland. Mitchell managed to steer discussions in which some parties still refused to directly address one another, and instead communicated only through him as chair of the talks. His patience was phenomenal, and Mitchell played a major role in bringing about the Good Friday peace settlement.</p>
<p>After Clinton left office in 2001, the George W. Bush administration helped in the difficult process of implementing this accord. The IRA still refused to decommission its weapons, but pressure from the US – which, after 9/11, showed no tolerance for anything that might be seen as terrorist activity – helped force it to do so. Similarly, the Bush administration pushed Sinn Féin towards accepting reformed policing arrangements in Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>In Irish America, figures like <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fresh-light-shed-on-edward-kennedy-role-in-northern-irish-peace-process-1.2372644">Ted Kennedy</a>, who had been crucial in bringing Sinn Féin into the peace process, now insisted that it accept all the rules of the new political order. Even the hardline unionist party, the DUP, was impressed, and was eventually obliged to share power with Sinn Féin.</p>
<p>Thereafter, the US played a limited role in Northern Ireland – until Brexit. The UK’s departure from the EU created significant challenges in managing the Irish border, and thus posed a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/16/us-uk-trade-deal-in-danger-if-good-friday-agreement-jeopardised-democrats-warn">threat to the Good Friday Agreement</a> as it is generally considered a hard border on the island of Ireland would go against the spirit of the deal. Irish America responded by reorganising and lobbying to protect the accord. Even when running for the presidency in 2020, Joe Biden – fiercely proud of his own Irish heritage – famously tweeted a warning to the UK: “We can’t allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1306334039557586944"}"></div></p>
<p>After Biden’s election, pressure from the White House undoubtedly helped steer Boris Johnson towards a Brexit deal which prioritised peace in the region. </p>
<p>This also explains why Biden will be <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-65110382">visiting Northern Ireland</a> to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. The US government, and Irish America, both feel that they helped create peace the region, and want to preserve and celebrate this achievement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter John McLoughlin has received funding in the past from the AHRC, Leverhulme Trust, the Irish Research Council, and the Fulbright Commission. He is a member of Greenpeace.</span></em></p>Bill Clinton and senator George Mitchell were central in keeping the players at the table so that the historical deal could be signed in 1998.Peter John McLoughlin, Lecturer in Politics, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2031002023-04-04T12:19:38Z2023-04-04T12:19:38ZHow the indictment of Donald Trump is a ‘strange and different’ event for America, according to political scientists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518856/original/file-20230401-26-vgxsr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C6002%2C4001&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It was big news when a grand jury voted to indict former President Donald Trump.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/newspaper-front-pages-with-former-us-president-donald-trump-news-photo/1250118227?adppopup=true">Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-indictment-wont-keep-him-from-presidential-race-but-will-make-his-reelection-bid-much-harder-197677">indictment of a former president</a> of the United States, Donald Trump, is history happening in real time. The Conversation asked political scientists <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=FlYT3TEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">James D. Long</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=W54pBFgAAAAJ">Victor Menaldo</a>, both at the University of Washington, to help readers understand the meaning of this moment in the U.S. The two scholars have written about the lessons other democracies can teach the U.S. about <a href="https://theconversation.com/prosecuting-a-president-is-divisive-and-sometimes-destabilizing-heres-why-many-countries-do-it-anyway-188565">prosecuting a president</a> and provide the context for Trump’s arraignment in a Manhattan courthouse.</em> </p>
<h2>What was the first thing you thought when you heard that the grand jury voted to indict Trump?</h2>
<p><strong>James Long</strong>: The first thought I had was about the grand jury, and how much work it is to be on a grand jury. It becomes a part-time job. And how wonderful that we live in a country where that’s how these things are decided. Twenty-three people performed this service that is so critical to the functioning of our country and our democracy. They do it not just for Donald Trump’s case, but for many types of cases. There was something very touching about it.</p>
<p>The strength of our legal system is the thing that makes me proud. What makes me sad is that we’re in this situation. If you think about all the battles that have been fought to make our democracy better, stronger and more inclusive over more than 200 years – we’re now at a place where someone has threatened that to pursue their own interests. That’s just a sad thing to have to experience as a country. I’m glad that we’re going through it following the rule of law, as opposed to fighting it out as a political matter in the streets or fighting a war or something else disastrous, as other countries have done.</p>
<p><strong>Victor Menaldo</strong>: I thought of cases that are similar, analogs in other parts of the world. Prime Minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/prosecuting-ex-presidents-for-corruption-is-trending-worldwide-but-its-not-always-great-for-democracy-156931">Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel</a> came to mind. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-evo-morales-bolivia-50747531a0c6a757cd5f423ccf8e84d5">Evo Morales in Bolivia</a> came to mind. A <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190321-brazil-fall-three-former-presidents">bunch of Brazilian former presidents</a> <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/31/lula-looks-to-restore-brazils-tarnished-global-stature">came to mind</a> – the past four, in fact – who went through different stages of prosecution or impeachment, or some were arrested, some spent time in jail.</p>
<p>I also thought about the politics and how Trump might continue down the path he’s been on – getting folks inflamed and throwing fireballs and muddying the waters. How far will he go, and what purposes will that serve – maybe intimidating judges, witnesses and juries and the like – in terms of bolstering his campaign?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518862/original/file-20230401-28-kvtf32.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a dark suit and white shirt holds an upturned fist." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518862/original/file-20230401-28-kvtf32.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518862/original/file-20230401-28-kvtf32.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518862/original/file-20230401-28-kvtf32.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518862/original/file-20230401-28-kvtf32.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518862/original/file-20230401-28-kvtf32.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518862/original/file-20230401-28-kvtf32.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518862/original/file-20230401-28-kvtf32.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump after speaking during a rally at the Waco Regional Airport on March 25, 2023, in Waco, Texas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-u-s-president-donald-trump-prepares-to-depart-after-news-photo/1476375191?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can this indictment do to America?</h2>
<p><strong>James Long</strong>: My generation lived through <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/legacy/Clinton-Lewinsky-story.pdf">President Bill Clinton’s impeachment</a>. As I’ve grown older, I’ve seen other things that other presidents have gotten away with. So I probably thought the indictment would not have been that surprising. </p>
<p>Yet the indictment is shocking to me now. It’s also just shocking in the sense that Trump has spent his entire life in litigation and either getting away with stuff or not, but never being potentially held at a personal level legally liable in a criminal matter – although he does still have the presumption of innocence. It was very shocking to me to think that this has finally happened – like, this really is strange and different.</p>
<p><strong>Victor Menaldo</strong>: I tend to see the U.S. as less exceptional these days, at least politically, because of Trump. The various <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigations-civil-criminal.html">investigations of Trump</a>, and now the indictment, are less surprising than they might have been at one time. Americans had anticipated that a shoe would drop eventually, and this indictment was the shoe, or one of the first shoes. It was bound to happen, because Trump has been pushing the envelope for so long.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/authoritarianism-and-the-elite-origins-of-democracy/29C0246C5474CBC5184B2967AD4206ED">co-authored a book in 2018</a> with <a href="https://political-science.uchicago.edu/directory/michael-albertus">Michael Albertus</a>. Our fundamental premise was that the fear of prosecution drives a lot of politics, across countries and across time. It’s basic to whether you’ll have a democracy or whether the democracy will weaken. </p>
<p>So if you’re afraid of prosecution, you might, if you’re a dictator, prevent democracy at all costs. If you were very nasty, you’d make sure that democracy doesn’t happen or that it happens on your terms, because if it happens on someone else’s terms, you’re going to end up in a prison. You’re going to try to craft a system where the judiciary is beholden to you so you don’t get in any trouble.</p>
<p>My other thought is, thank goodness that this happened once Trump was out of power. You don’t control the machinery of government when you’re out of power. You don’t control the Justice Department. Your power is weak politically, even though Trump is the putative <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/03/30/trump-indictment-republicans-rally/">leader of the Republican Party</a> and <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker/">front-runner in the GOP</a> for the 2024 nomination. But he lacks the cachet he once had and he lacks the powers he would otherwise use to cause much damage. That gives me optimism that this prosecution might not be as existential to our system as it would have been, let’s say, when he was still in power.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518861/original/file-20230401-28-bpbu79.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a a white T-shirt setting up a metal barricade in front of a building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518861/original/file-20230401-28-bpbu79.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518861/original/file-20230401-28-bpbu79.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518861/original/file-20230401-28-bpbu79.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518861/original/file-20230401-28-bpbu79.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518861/original/file-20230401-28-bpbu79.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518861/original/file-20230401-28-bpbu79.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518861/original/file-20230401-28-bpbu79.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New York Police Department workers set up barricades outside the offices of the Manhattan district attorney on April 1, 2023, in New York City.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/workers-with-the-nypd-set-up-barricades-outside-the-offices-news-photo/1250351591?adppopup=true">Kena Betancur/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Are the arrest and booking symbolically important in the grand story of Trump and America?</h2>
<p><strong>James Long</strong>: Certainly. I think that is going to be the image that is next to his obituary – a former president’s mug shot.</p>
<p>I believe that Trump’s political stock has declined every day since he’s left office. I think he thinks this prosecution will help him, and it might short term. I think he’s going to try to use that image, much like Jesus on the cross, to say, essentially, “Here I am being martyred at the hands of a Democratic DA in a Democratic state among a grand jury probably made up of citizens who are all Democrats out to get me, and a judge out to get me!”</p>
<p>That mug shot might be an image he’s going to exploit, but ultimately, I believe it’s going to be embarrassing to him. I don’t think moderate Republicans will vote for somebody who is being prosecuted. I think they’re going to shop around. The <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2024-state-primary-election-dates">first primary is a little less than a year</a> away. There’s a long time for the Republicans to politically realign themselves behind another candidate.</p>
<p><strong>Victor Menaldo</strong>: Trump’s best move, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/06/the-mind-of-donald-trump/480771/">according to his theory of the world</a>, is to be a martyr and to weaponize the symbolism of a former president being indicted and claim it’s totally politicized.</p>
<p>I would say that anyone who cares about the rule of law in general, Democrats and the folks in these judicial proceedings, in particular, they have to be very careful not to reinforce that weaponization narrative there. I believe the prosecutors will probably do unconventional things and treat Trump differently from your typical defendant. They’ll reduce the odds that there is going to be some mug shot that goes viral, they won’t cuff him, won’t do the perp walk. They’ll treat him with respect and dignity. </p>
<p>How they handle his arraignment is going to be a fascinating game to observe – how to lower the profile of that moment. Their best strategy would be to play it down and try to uphold the dignity of the office or former office. Trump’s best move is to say this prosecution is weaponization of the legal system, milk the idea he’s being persecuted for all it’s worth and some of that will probably stick with his core supporters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203100/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the first time, a former US president has been indicted, and two scholars describe what it means for democracy – and for them.James D. Long, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of WashingtonVictor Menaldo, Professor of Political Science, Co-founder of the Political Economy Forum, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2004242023-02-27T13:23:18Z2023-02-27T13:23:18ZAll presidents avoid reporters, but Biden may achieve a record in his press avoidance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511997/original/file-20230223-16-sysg55.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C0%2C8337%2C5541&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden has held fewer press conferences than any president in recent memory.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-walks-to-marine-one-after-speaking-to-news-photo/1245981309?phrase=Biden%20walks%20away%20from%20reporters&adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s nothing new <a href="https://www.history.com/news/presidents-relationship-with-press">about presidents avoiding the press</a>. </p>
<p>Bill Clinton was in a major scandal – based in large part on <a href="https://youtu.be/XBzHnZiSv7U">getting caught in a deception during a media interview</a> – and successfully outsourced his White House press briefings to legal counsel to avoid having his press secretary or himself <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/lanny-davis-recalls-what-its-like-to-defend-a-president-under-siege">trapped by tough media questioning</a>. </p>
<p>Barack Obama campaigned on being the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0491.2009.01451.x">most transparent president in history</a> and then <a href="https://www.hintergrund.de/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/us2013-english.pdf">prosecuted reporters as criminals</a>. </p>
<p>But well into the third year of Joe Biden’s presidency, <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/presidential-news-conferences#Data%20Table">he has held fewer press conferences than any president in recent memory</a>. </p>
<p>There’s a reason that Biden – and all the other presidents – want to avoid the press: While democracy may demand such accountability from a president, press conferences definitely are risky for them. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1480559083421896709"}"></div></p>
<h2>Avoidance becomes the norm</h2>
<p>It took Biden until late March 2021 to hold his first press conference, more than two months after his inauguration – the longest a new president had gone without holding a press conference in 100 years. </p>
<p>During Biden’s first year in office, he held a total of 10 press conferences. Most of those featured him reading prepared remarks and then leaving <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/19/joe-biden-media-reporters-press-conference">without taking questions from reporters</a>. When he does take questions, he tends to call on only preselected reporters from – in his own words – “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2i2FeDw2Bc">a list I’ve been given</a>.”</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=50tVKogAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of political communication and public relations</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1123/ijsc.2015-0003">I have found through my research that</a> public figures such as celebrities and sports stars in the age of social media are no longer concerned with answering reporters’ questions, holding press conferences or giving interviews. </p>
<p>Why should LeBron James care about reporters when he can share his unfiltered opinions freely and instantly with his <a href="https://www.instagram.com/kingjames/?hl=en">146 million Instagram followers</a> and his <a href="https://twitter.com/KingJames">53 million Twitter followers</a>? </p>
<p>Donald Trump brought this perspective to the country’s highest office, <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/694755">tweeting about the presidency</a> <a href="https://youtu.be/HKzcbm2ZWCE">and ignoring</a> and <a href="https://youtu.be/jtl5XK7QP38">insulting reporters to their faces</a>. </p>
<p>While Biden doesn’t trash the press the way Trump did, he hardly speaks to the <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/jill-biden-joe-biden-question-reporters-classified-documents-1777060">public</a>. </p>
<p>The White House press secretary <a href="https://youtu.be/KF3x0kkWzok">routinely refuses to answer reporters’ questions</a>. Washington Post media reporter Paul Farhi wrote in January 2023 that press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre repeatedly responded to questions about classified documents found in Biden’s home and former office “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/02/02/karine-jean-pierre-biden-documents/">by essentially not responding</a>.”</p>
<p></p>
<h2>Risky business</h2>
<p>I have published studies of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2015.1120876">presidential press conferences</a>, looking at the effects of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0261927X15600732">journalists’ asking tough questions</a>. I have explored <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1750481318766923">theories about</a> politicians’ different strategies with the press and observed the effects on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17706960">voters</a>. </p>
<p>Critics point to various motives Biden might have for avoiding the press - and even so, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/17/arts/television/late-night-biden-physical.html">late-night comics appear to have plenty of fodder from him</a>. But empirical evidence and my research suggest that there are multiple reasons no president should want to give a press conference. </p>
<p>Understanding those risks does not mean I am justifying press avoidance by presidents. <a href="https://grady.uga.edu/faculty/clementson/">As a former journalist and a political campaign director for both Democrats and Republicans</a>, I believe that <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/presidential-press-conferences">public servants are derelict</a> in their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F016344370202400203">duties</a> if they refuse to face the press. I’m not alone: The White House Correspondents’ Association accused Biden in 2021 of lacking “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/press-conferences-biden-administration/2021/03/12/332285e6-81e3-11eb-81db-b02f0398f49a_story.html">accountability to the public</a>.” And in June 2022, a group of White House reporters officially <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/06/30/white-house-press-corps-demands-end-to-biden-event-restrictions/">complained about Biden’s inaccessibility</a> , accusing him of practices “antithetical” to the “concept of a free press,” noting that “<a href="https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/07/KARINEFINALEDITED.docx.pdf">every other president before Biden (including Trump) allowed full access to the very same spaces</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="U.S. President Harry Truman at a desk in the White House, surrounded by reporters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Harry Truman gives his first White House press conference, on April 17, 1945.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-truman-holding-his-first-press-conference-at-news-photo/107422994?adppopup=true">Keystone-France/Gamma-Keystone via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dodging questions – or not</h2>
<p>The first reason to avoid a press conference is that reporters may accuse the president of dodging questions. And viewers are likely to believe the allegations – regardless of what the president actually said. The <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/opinions/white-house-briefings-journalists-trump-lockhart/index.html">tendency</a> of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2002.tb02572.x">political journalists to accuse presidents</a> of deflecting questions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2010.496712">has increased</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0261927X08322475">in recent decades</a> and has become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/016344370202400203">fairly common</a>. </p>
<p>During the 2020 campaign, Biden was <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-dodges-court-packing-questions-scotus-nomination-moves/story?id=73523933">accused of dodging questions</a> by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-joe-biden-politics-courts-2da741e21e49bec61f9e50a0f4ec5b45">numerous media outlets</a>. A campaign spokesperson was even <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/biden-rep-dodges-question-about-whether-his-teleprompter-use/">accused of dodging a question</a> about Biden dodging questions.</p>
<p>I ran an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqz036">experiment testing the effects of a journalist’s accusing politicians</a> of evasion. </p>
<p>The voters in the study all saw the same questions and answers. For half of the voters, though, I edited the video to insert the journalist accusing the politician of dodging in an answer.</p>
<p>Voters who saw the journalist making the allegation believed the politician indeed dodged. Voters who saw the identical interview without the allegation of evasion thought the politician gave adequate answers. </p>
<p>What’s more: The politician shown in the experiment had not actually dodged. Voters seem to believe a reporter and disbelieve a politician.</p>
<h2>No good answer</h2>
<p>A second reason to avoid press conferences is that questions will tend to be unanswerable. As has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08824096.2020.1811659">documented</a> by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X8800700204">decades of data</a>, journalists frequently ask about divisive or controversial topics, and they word their questions in tricky ways.</p>
<p>There is no politically advantageous answer to such questions. Based on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X15600732">my research</a>, journalists covering the White House tend to ask about topics that divide the country – such as abortion or gun control – for which any direct answer would offend some group of voters. </p>
<h2>You can’t win</h2>
<p>A third reason is that even if a question is not divisive, and the president answers it, many voters will still think the president is being deceptive. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17744004">I ran an experiment</a> in which I filmed an interview of a politician either dodging or answering a journalist’s question. Regardless of what the politician actually said, Republican voters thought the politician was deceptive when he was a Democrat, and vice versa for Democratic voters. </p>
<p>Simply by having a party label, a president’s press conference will likely be skewed through a partisan lens no matter what he says.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President George W. Bush speaking to the press." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President George W. Bush got defensive during his final press conference, on Jan. 12, 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-george-w-bush-speaks-during-his-final-press-news-photo/84255528?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>TMI – too much information</h2>
<p>A final reason for a president to avoid giving a press conference: The more the public gets to know a president, the more they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0034379">dislike him</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12299">My own research</a> has revealed why a president might become more unpresidential the more he holds press conferences. The more a politician’s words inevitably diverge from voters’ feelings and experiences, the less presidential he will seem to them.</p>
<p>Altogether, presidents probably will lose stature by holding a press conference. Journalists hold the upper hand, asking questions that pose a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X08322475">rhetorical minefield</a> and wielding the power to accuse the president of evasion. And <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqz036">voters will tend to believe journalists’ criticism of the president</a> even if a president honestly answers their questions.</p>
<p>Of course, if what the president is aiming for is not strategic expediency but simply fulfilling an obligation to be held accountable in his role, then the country wins when he holds a press conference – and in that way he does, too.</p>
<p><em>This story substantially updates <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-no-president-should-want-to-give-a-press-conference-157222">a story</a> originally published on March 19, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200424/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Joe Biden may be nicer to reporters than his predecessor, but he’s not actually responsive to the press. He has held fewer press conferences than any president in recent memory.David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor in the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1983632023-02-01T13:20:49Z2023-02-01T13:20:49ZI helped balance the federal budget in the 1990s – here’s just how hard it will be for the GOP to achieve that same rare feat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506717/original/file-20230127-14-dnxa9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C58%2C2903%2C1884&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bill Clinton, at right, oversaw the first balanced budget since 1969, with some help from a bipartisan deal with Newt Gingrich.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PresidentBillClintonHandshakeNewtGingrich/0bb5ca6edcaf46bd97a5b7bda3ab6cfc/photo?Query=clinton%20gingrich&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=73&currentItemNo=24">AP Photo/Doug Mills</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kevin McCarthy reportedly <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2023/1/6/23542817/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-deal-congress-debt-ceiling">promised many things</a> to Republican hardliners en route to clinching his job as speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/">One of them</a> was a “balanced budget” in 10 years. </p>
<p>As part of that plan, Republicans <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/house-republicans-right-no-debt-limit-increase-until-balanced-budget-plan-place">are demanding substantial spending cuts</a> and budget reforms in exchange for lifting the debt ceiling this year – <a href="https://theconversation.com/link-164977">putting the U.S. at risk of default</a>.</p>
<p>But a look at the numbers – and the history – shows just how difficult balancing the budget will be. </p>
<p>Doing so requires the federal government to generate enough income to pay for all its spending. The U.S. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/historical-tables/">has managed this feat only twice</a> in the past 60 years – and both times involved raising taxes, something <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/howardgleckman/2023/01/17/balancing-the-federal-budget-in-10-years-without-raising-taxes-is-impossible/?sh=5fe413c215b3">Republicans are loath to do</a>. President Lyndon B. Johnson managed to do it in 1969, and President Bill Clinton created a surplus that ran from the fiscal years 1998 to 2001, when he left office. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/linda-bilmes">member of the Clinton administration</a> in the Commerce Department from 1997 to 2001, I participated in achieving that rare balanced budget and understand the obstacles to delivering a repeat performance. A quick look back at how we did it, along with how much has changed, shows that Republicans are unlikely to manage a similar performance. </p>
<h2>How Clinton balanced the budget</h2>
<p>When Clinton took office in 1993, the budget deficit in the previous year <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S">was just under 5% of gross domestic product</a>, and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/103rd-congress-1993-1994/reports/93doc03.pdf">predicted a bleak fiscal outlook</a>. </p>
<p>Clinton’s balanced-budget recipe was a mixture of higher revenues and lower spending, with help from a booming economy. In his second term, he also negotiated a bipartisan budget deal with Republicans. </p>
<p>After <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/01/07/us/clinton-backs-off-his-pledge-to-cut-the-deficit-in-half.html">campaigning on a pledge to cut the deficit</a>, Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy during his first year in office. He <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tax-reform-act-of-1993.asp">introduced higher top personal income tax brackets</a>, raised corporate taxes, increased taxes on Social Security benefits, added 4.3 cents per gallon onto gas taxes and eliminated a number of itemized tax deductions. On the spending side, Clinton took advantage of the “<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/peace-dividend-169570">peace dividend</a>” that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union to reduce defense spending from 4.3% of GDP in 1993 to 2.9% by 2000.</p>
<p>These measures helped <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S">slash the overall deficit</a> to 1.3% of GDP by the end of Clinton’s first term. That’s the smallest it had been in 22 years. </p>
<p>The higher taxes invited pushback from Republicans, who gained majorities in the House and Senate in 1995. Clinton wrangled continually with then-Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich, who <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/12/683304824/the-longest-government-shutdown-in-history-no-longer-how-1995-changed-everything">forced a government shutdown</a> that same year. </p>
<p>As part of budget negotiations, Congress eventually passed the <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/archive/908mcaid.htm">Balanced Budget Act of 1997</a>, which retained Clinton’s original tax increases but cut capital gains taxes and reduced spending on Medicare and Medicaid. Meanwhile, the economy, fueled by a tech boom, <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2017/growth-in-tech-sector-returns-to-glory-days-of-the-1990s">expanded rapidly</a> during Clinton’s second term. </p>
<p>Higher tax rates on the wealthiest Americans, strong economic growth and continued restraint in government spending <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD">produced a budget surplus of US$69 billion</a> in 1998. The surplus peaked in 2000 at $236 billion before falling to $128 billion in 2001. The surplus – which hasn’t been seen since – allowed the U.S. to pay down the national debt by over $450 billion. </p>
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<h2>Lessons for today</h2>
<p>The lesson for Republicans today is that if they are serious about balancing the budget, it will require some very unpalatable choices. </p>
<p>On the spending side, so-called entitlements – mandatory programs such as Social Security, Medicare and veterans benefits – now <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/introduction-to-the-federal-budget-process">account for almost two-thirds of the federal budget</a>, compared with <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/RL33074.pdf">less than half</a> when Clinton took office. Funding for these programs is set by formula, making it difficult to change. And the population of Americans 65 or older <a href="https://usafacts.org/data/topics/people-society/population-and-demographics/our-changing-population?endDate=2021-01-01&startDate=1993-01-01">has grown by 32%</a> since 1993, increasing demand for entitlements. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A group of white man clap as president Clinton sits on at desk with the words a balanced budget witten in front" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506719/original/file-20230127-25-frc5dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506719/original/file-20230127-25-frc5dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506719/original/file-20230127-25-frc5dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506719/original/file-20230127-25-frc5dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506719/original/file-20230127-25-frc5dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=950&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506719/original/file-20230127-25-frc5dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=950&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506719/original/file-20230127-25-frc5dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=950&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When Clinton signed the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, it was the first time since 1969 that the U.S. had made ends meet.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/house-majority-leader-newt-gingrich-r-ga-applaudes-us-news-photo/52023875?phrase=clinton%20gingrich">Paul Richards/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/introduction-to-the-federal-budget-process">Defense spending takes up another 14%</a> of taxpayer dollars, greatly exceeding every other item in the so-called discretionary budget, which includes everything else from transportation and energy to airline traffic control and national parks.</p>
<p>The U.S. spends 8% of the budget simply paying interest on the national debt. This percentage hasn’t changed much, but the debt itself has soared from $4.5 trillion in 1993 to <a href="https://www.usdebtclock.org/">$31 trillion today</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/business/economy/federal-debt-history.html">mainly because of massive tax cuts</a> during the Bush and Trump administrations, costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and vast public spending to address the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>Now that historically low interest rates <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6d312b6c-9f74-4816-ad7e-7e797c5e0f6b">have come to an end</a>, the U.S. will be forced to devote a bigger slice of the pie to paying interest. </p>
<p>The policy nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget <a href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/what-would-it-take-balance-budget">recently estimated</a> that if spending on defense, veterans, Social Security and Medicare were off the table, Congress would need to reduce all other spending by 85% to get to an overall balance. In other words, simple arithmetic means it is not feasible to achieve anything close to a balanced budget without addressing military spending and entitlement programs. </p>
<p>Reducing military spending is always controversial – and many Republicans (as well as some Democrats) would resist such cuts – but especially so at a time when the U.S. is ramping up military aid to Ukraine and the Pentagon perceives a threat from China. It’s the very opposite of the Clinton-era peace dividend. </p>
<p>Cutting mandatory spending would require significant reforms. The U.S. has one of the youngest minimum retirement thresholds in the world, at age 62, compared with 65 in Canada and 67 in Britain and Germany. Even France <a href="https://apnews.com/article/france-retirement-age-limit-protests-866eb86aea5cf0d39894b96d2888c26f">may soon have a higher minimum retirement age</a> of 64 – though the current protests there over increasing it from 62 illustrate the political perils of such a change.</p>
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<h2>Can they do it again?</h2>
<p>Certainly, opportunities do exist to close the gap between income and spending. </p>
<p>The Congressional Budget Office has released a <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58163">report outlining 76 options</a> for reducing the deficit. But many of the ideas require further hard choices, such as rolling back some or all of the last three tax cuts, increasing taxes on the wealthy, ending or curtailing tax deductions and adopting a consumption-based value-added tax or a <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/carbon-tax-320">carbon tax</a>, as well as fundamental reforms to entitlement programs. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, Congress shows limited appetite to tackle such issues.</p>
<p>Back in 1997, after the smoke cleared, both the Clinton administration and the Republicans in Congress were able to claim some political credit for the resulting budget surpluses. But – crucially – both parties recognized that a deal was in the best interest of the country and were able to line up their respective members to get the votes in Congress needed to approve it. The contrast with the current political landscape is stark. </p>
<p>The Republican Study Committee, a bloc of more than 160 conservative lawmakers, <a href="https://banks.house.gov/uploadedfiles/rsc_2023_budget_final_version.pdf">released a budget blueprint</a> in June 2022 that promises to balance the budget in seven years. The plan proposes trillions of dollars in spending cuts, many of which would fall hardest on low-income Americans. These include shrinking Medicaid, paring veterans benefits and raising the age for full Social Security retirement benefits from 67 to 70. It also calls for higher military spending and further tax cuts – which would require even more draconian cuts to core safety net programs. </p>
<p>It would also lock in the Trump tax cuts of 2017 – the opposite of what the Congressional Budget Office recommends or what Clinton did in the 1990s to secure a balanced budget. </p>
<p>Without a credible Republican deficit-cutting plan on the table, I believe that the odds favor a protracted stand-off over the debt ceiling, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-debt-default-could-trigger-dollars-collapse-and-severely-erode-americas-political-and-economic-might-198395">could tip the precarious U.S. economy</a> into recession.</p>
<p>While Congress <a href="https://www.econlib.org/archives/2018/04/the_us_is_unlik.html">seems highly unlikely</a> to allow a debt default, this brawl would waste time and energy that could be better spent on figuring out how to strengthen programs like Social Security and close tax loopholes that drain revenue. </p>
<p>Balancing the budget is not an end in itself. <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/deficits-debt-and-interest#:%7E:text=When%20interest%20rates%20rise%20or,and%201.6%20percent%20of%20GDP">Most economists agree</a> that governments should reduce public debt during periods of prosperity and run deficits to assist people when the economy is weak. </p>
<p>The U.S. was fortunate in the late 1990s to enjoy a buoyant economy that enabled Congress and the president to achieve a fiscal surplus. What the country needs now, in my view, is not more quick fixes but a sustainable pathway to stabilizing the national debt. That requires growing revenues and reducing nonessential spending in a responsible way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198363/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linda J. Bilmes is the Daniel Patrick Moynihan Senior Lecturer in Public Policy and Public Finance at the Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University. She is affiliated with the National Academy of Public Administration, where she serves on the Board of Directors, and the United Nations Committee of Experts on Public Administration, where she is the member for the United States. She served as the Senate-confirmed Assistant Secretary and CFO of the US Department of Commerce from 1999-2001, and as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Administration and Budget from 1997-1998. </span></em></p>House Speaker McCarthy wants to put the US on a path to a balanced budget as debt ceiling negotiations begin with President Biden. Here’s why it won’t be easy to repeat what Bill Clinton accomplished.Linda J. Bilmes, Daniel Patrick Moynihan Senior Lecturer in Public Policy and Public Finance, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1977612023-01-16T06:05:41Z2023-01-16T06:05:41ZAre the Clintons actually writing their novels? An expert uses ‘stylometry’ to analyse Hillary and Bill’s writing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504290/original/file-20230112-60779-e6jept.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=63%2C0%2C2772%2C1824&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Author James Patterson and former President Bill Clinton attend a book signing for The President is Missing.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/huntington-ny-jun-28-author-james-1123404659">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2018, former US president Bill Clinton coauthored a novel with James Patterson, the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/06/20/how-james-patterson-became-the-worlds-best-selling-author">world’s bestselling author</a>. The President is Missing is a typical “Patterson”: a page-turner of a thriller, easy to read, with short chapters and large font.</p>
<p>Patterson is accustomed to collaborative writing – much of his success can be attributed to novels he has written with others. Considered the first “brand-managed author”, Patterson brought the Hollywood model of film production to books. </p>
<p>He is as much a producer as he is a writer, using a string of junior collaborators to run his factory of novels. Patterson outlines the plot, the coauthors write the story, Patterson offers feedback. While <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-you-dont-need-to-write-much-to-be-the-worlds-bestselling-author-75261">he doesn’t seem to do much writing</a> himself, it is a system that has made Patterson <a href="https://wealthygorilla.com/richest-authors-world/">a rich man</a>.</p>
<p>It’s one thing for Patterson to work with aspiring novelists looking to launch their careers, but when former presidents come looking for a writing partner, that’s a different story. Where Patterson’s other collaborators have been his junior, exchanging their labour as writers for a bit of pay and profile, Bill Clinton probably isn’t in need of a freelance writing gig to pay his way.</p>
<p>Indeed, in the case of The President is Missing, analysis found that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2018/jun/07/bill-clinton-james-patterson-the-president-is-missing-co-authors">Patterson did most of the writing</a>. The only exception is <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/06/18/bill-clinton-and-james-pattersons-concussive-collaboration">the novel’s ending</a>, which is essentially a “fiction-free” version of Clinton’s “politico-historical thoughts”. </p>
<p>Of course, style isn’t the only thing that makes an author. Stories are as much about plot (some might even argue more) as they are style. But analysing who came up with the contents of a story is a far more complex task than analysing who actually wrote it and as the adage goes, a good story is all in its telling.</p>
<h2>Using ‘stylometry’ to establish authorship</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnFgVc8UNkE&t=38s">Using a technique called “stylometry”</a>, it can be established that Patterson probably wrote most of The President is Missing. Stylometry uses computers to statistically analyse the frequency of words in a text. It can be applied to a variety of research purposes, most notably, authorship attribution. </p>
<p>Stylometry is useful when a novel’s authorship has been questioned because every individual’s writing style possesses subtle indicators – or “authorial fingerprints” – which can be used to determine who is most likely to have written a particular piece of work. </p>
<p>Authorial fingerprints are developed by analysing a writer’s solo-authored works, which can then be applied to collaborative efforts (luckily, Bill Clinton has a few books attributed to him alone).</p>
<p>So, what happens when stylometry is applied to a more recent novel coauthored by Patterson and Clinton? In June 2021, a second political thriller, The President’s Daughter, was published by the pair. Once again, it appears that Patterson did nearly all of the writing.</p>
<p><strong>A stylometric analysis of The President’s Daughter</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504287/original/file-20230112-46586-10m2v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A stylometric analysis of The President’s Daughter. Bill Clinton’s authorial fingerprint / stylistic signal is represented in red, while Patterson’s style is represented in green. Green is the dominant colour throughout, which means Patterson is the likel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504287/original/file-20230112-46586-10m2v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504287/original/file-20230112-46586-10m2v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504287/original/file-20230112-46586-10m2v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504287/original/file-20230112-46586-10m2v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504287/original/file-20230112-46586-10m2v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504287/original/file-20230112-46586-10m2v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504287/original/file-20230112-46586-10m2v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bill Clinton’s authorial fingerprint / stylistic signal is represented in red, while Patterson’s style is represented in green. Green is the dominant colour throughout, which means Patterson is the likely author of most of the book.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the chart above shows Patterson’s authorial fingerprint (represented in green) dominates the novel. But as with The President is Missing, there is a slight exception.</p>
<p>In their first novel, Clinton clearly wrote the ending, whereas with The President’s Daughter, it seems that he wrote the beginning. The book opens with the attempted assassination of a Libyan terrorist as the novel’s protagonist, a soon-to-be former president of the United States, watches on from the famed Situation Room in the White House.</p>
<p>The formula for the collaboration remains consistent across both novels. Patterson, the seasoned pro, does all the actual writing, but Clinton still gets a turn.</p>
<h2>What about Hillary’s novels?</h2>
<p>Bill isn’t the only novelist in the Clinton household. Hillary Clinton has also coauthored a novel.</p>
<p>In 2021, she published a political thriller called State of Terror with Canadian writer Louise Penny. But that is where the similarities to Bill’s literary career end. Unlike her husband, stylometry indicates that Hillary Clinton did contribute a significant portion of the actual writing. More than half of State of Terror matches her authorial fingerprint.</p>
<p><strong>A stylometric analysis of State of Terror</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504288/original/file-20230112-60681-82xd8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hillary Clinton’s authorial fingerprint / stylistic signal is represented in red, while Louise Penny’s style is represented in green." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504288/original/file-20230112-60681-82xd8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504288/original/file-20230112-60681-82xd8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504288/original/file-20230112-60681-82xd8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504288/original/file-20230112-60681-82xd8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504288/original/file-20230112-60681-82xd8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504288/original/file-20230112-60681-82xd8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504288/original/file-20230112-60681-82xd8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hillary Clinton’s authorial fingerprint / stylistic signal is represented in red, while Louise Penny’s style is represented in green.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The division of labour between Penny and Hillary, shown in the chart above, seems much more equitable than it is with Patterson and Bill. The novel is divided into two absolute sections with the first 40% of the novel seemingly written by Penny (represented in green), while Hillary Clinton wrote the remainder (as shown in red).</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/oct/12/state-of-terror-by-hillary-rodham-clinton-and-louise-penny-review-politics-and-patriotism">critics have suggested</a> that the novel is a fictionalised account of Clinton’s views, and in part, her career.
Guardian reviewer Mark Lawson suspects that future biographers and historians “may find at least as many revelations in the couple’s fictions as in their memoirs”. </p>
<p>That may well be the case for Hillary, who felt confident enough in her own writing (it is perhaps unsurprising that Hillary Clinton is as literate as she is articulate) to take on such a task in her own hand. But the same cannot be said of her husband’s forays into fiction.</p>
<p>Whether or not State of Terror is about Hillary Clinton, commentators can certainly be assured that she wrote much of it. Stylometry seems to indicate that Bill on the other hand is merely playing a bit part in the next phase of the Patterson literary machine.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197761/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James O'Sullivan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An expert discusses how much of his coauthored novels former president Bill Clinton wrote himself, compared to his wife and fellow novelist, Hillary Clinton.James O'Sullivan, Lecturer in Digital Arts & Humanities, University College CorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1965592023-01-12T13:21:28Z2023-01-12T13:21:28ZTrump is facing various criminal charges – here’s what we can learn from legal cases against Nixon and Clinton<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504070/original/file-20230111-14-t9gpgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump waves to people during a New Year's event at his Mar-a-Lago home in December 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1453537376/photo/donald-trump-addresses-the-press-on-new-years-eve-at-mar-a-lago-mansion.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=ZPmora_FI5LKPZ9ezZ3DTxKoHRFR0iuAkvGdPSewxJ4=">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/fulton-county-grand-jury-trump-election/index.html">Georgia special grand jury has finished its work</a> investigating whether former president Donald Trump and his allies committed crimes when trying to overturn the 2020 election results.</p>
<p>While special grand juries cannot themselves issue indictments, they can recommend district attorneys do so. This and other recent news about Trump’s mounting legal problems has led to a number of legal experts and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/10/georgia-fulton-investigation-trump-indictment/">political observers</a> saying that Trump could soon be indicted.</p>
<p>Trump, meanwhile, faces several other criminal investigations that could also result in indictments. The Department of Justice is <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23306941/donald-trump-crimes-criminal-investigation-mar-a-lago-fbi-january-6-election-georgia-new-york">investigating Trump</a> for retaining government documents in violation of several federal laws. </p>
<p>And the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol <a href="https://apnews.com/article/january-6-final-hearing-investigation-wraps-0bceb95826c1c836023d2810ccbeccca">referred Trump</a> to the Department of Justice in December 2022, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/23/1145160544/jan-6-report-committee-donald-trump">citing multiple likely</a> criminal violations in his role of orchestrating an attack on the Capitol. The Department of Justice’s special counsel is now investigating. </p>
<p>Trump, who may become the first former president of the United States to be indicted by a court of law, is not the first modern president with <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/which-presidents-have-been-tied-to-a-crime-a-history-1534943720">legal problems</a>. But the question of whether a president – sitting or former – should be charged with a crime has come up three times in the last half-century. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://law.wayne.edu/profile/ew9862">legal scholar</a>, I understand the important questions raised about the rule of law within U.S. democracy by the possible indictment of a former president. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://rolalliance.org/rol-alliance-impact/rule-of-law-democracy/">rule of law</a> means that no one is above the law. It ensures that the rules are made by and for the people. Those rules are enforced equally and adjudicated through well-established procedures. For the rule of law to prevail, any decision to indict a former president – or not to – has to be credible, independent and supported by evidence.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white man with a blue suit walks past a row of American flags with the words 'Make America Great again' on a banner above the flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump speaks at an event in his Mar-a-Lago home in November 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1441806213/photo/former-u-s-president-donald-trump-makes-an-announcement-at-his-florida-home.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=R2vt8_lclk72suKPt3eLn75Rak5i1LT6SIe18wHUig0=">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Being a current or former president matters</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.processhistory.org/presidential-misconduct-historians-and-history/">Presidential misconduct</a> is not new. </p>
<p>Presidents have engaged in unlawful activity. Some have even run into legal problems while in office. But their legal problems are often settled by the time they leave office and fade from the public’s memory. </p>
<p>The perseverance of Trump’s legal problems raises important new questions about how to deal with misconduct by a former president.</p>
<p>This matters, because federal law treats former presidents differently from sitting presidents. Former presidents do not retain all the legal advantages of being president. For example, former presidents can try to assert executive privilege to shield certain documents and information from Congress, courts and the public to protect the nation, but courts <a href="https://www.theusconstitution.org/litigation/thompson-v-trump/">have limited their</a> ability to do so. </p>
<p>The question of whether a sitting president can be indicted remains unresolved. In 2000, the Department of Justice <a href="https://www.justice.gov/olc/opinion/sitting-president%E2%80%99s-amenability-indictment-and-criminal-prosecution">adopted a policy</a> against indicting a sitting president. The policy protects presidents while they are in office so they can fulfill their constitutional duties. </p>
<p>But it is tradition, not law or policy, that has kept former presidents from indictment in <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/case-criminally-investigating-ex-president/616804/">the past 240 years</a>. </p>
<p>The legal arguments against indicting a sitting president – namely that it would undermine the capacity of the executive branch to perform its constitutional functions – lose weight once a president leaves office. A former president becomes a private citizen and no longer has any duties under the Constitution.</p>
<h2>Legal trouble for sitting presidents</h2>
<p>A few presidents have faced legal problems while in office, including Republican Richard Nixon and Democrat Bill Clinton. </p>
<p>Nixon famously ran into legal trouble after his <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Watergate-Scandal">reelection campaign</a> burglarized and bugged the Democratic National Committee’s headquarters in June 1972 – and he subsequently participated in the effort to cover up the scandal. </p>
<p>Nixon resigned in 1974 before the House of Representatives could have potentially impeached him – or the Senate could have convicted him and removed him from office <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/8/7/5970967/what-was-watergate-scandal-nixon">for his crimes</a> of obstruction of justice, abuse of power and contempt of Congress.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Leon-Jaworski">Special Prosecutor Leon Jaworski</a>, who was investigating the Watergate scandal, struggled with the question of whether a court can indict a sitting president. </p>
<p>The U.S. Constitution does not say that the president is immune from ordinary processes of the criminal law. It does, however, provide for impeachment and removal from office. </p>
<p>Some believe that because the Constitution establishes an <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/indicting-and-prosecuting-sitting-president">impeachment process</a> to address presidential misconduct, it should take precedent over a criminal indictment. Others worry that indictment would interfere with a president’s ability to fulfill his or her constitutional duties.</p>
<p>Jaworski left this legal question open and chose not to indict Nixon in 1974. He transmitted the evidence he had gathered on Nixon’s involvement in Watergate to the House so it could pursue impeachment proceedings. </p>
<p>The grand jury that was also investigating the Watergate scandal, however, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1974/06/07/archives/jury-named-nixon-a-coconspirator-but-didnt-indict-st-clair-confirms.html">voted in June 1974</a> to name Nixon as an unindicted co-conspirator in an alleged conspiracy to obstruct justice. It also recommended indicting seven men involved in the crime.</p>
<p>Nixon’s successor, President Gerald Ford, then faced the question of how to deal with Nixon’s misconduct after his predecessor resigned the office. Ford didn’t have the power to indict, but he could pardon Nixon for his alleged crimes. Ford decided that it was in the best interest of the country to <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-pardons-nixon">move on</a> from the Watergate scandal and to not allow prosecutors to indict Nixon. </p>
<p>Shortly after Nixon’s resignation, Ford <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-pardons-nixon">granted a full</a>, free and absolute pardon to Nixon in September 1974 for all offenses committed during his tenure as president. Ford’s pardon ensured that Nixon would not face indictment as a former president.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white photo shows two men sitting in arm chairs facing each other." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Richard Nixon speaks with journalist David Frost in 1977, three years after Nixon resigned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/50426386/photo/frost-interviews-nixon.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=ghRZcU4BWKy-fprsduiqPDQybzP0A86zbemPw8rP1os=">John Bryson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Another kind of legal trouble</h2>
<p>Clinton was never indicted, but he faced serious consequences for his presidential misconduct. His legal problems related to his treatment of and relationships with several women who were not his wife. </p>
<p>Clinton was accused of lying in court proceedings in a sexual harassment case filed against him. His alleged lying led to his impeachment for lying under oath to a federal grand jury and obstruction of justice. The Senate voted not to convict him, and thus he was not removed from office. A <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/stories/contempt041399.htm">federal district judge</a> held Clinton in contempt of court for making false statements in deposition testimony in the case. </p>
<p>Unlike Nixon, Clinton paid a price for his presidential misconduct. An Arkansas Supreme Court <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2000/07/01/arkansas-court-panel-sues-clinton/9226bfa2-3297-453a-b680-d8a34b1f98f8/">committee sued him</a> for his behavior while in office and asked that Clinton be disbarred for his behavior.</p>
<p>Clinton <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2001/01/20/in-a-deal-clinton-avoids-indictment/bb80cc4c-e72c-40c1-bb72-55b2b81c3065/">settled</a> the suit by agreeing to a five year suspension of his law license, a $25,000 fine and public acknowledgment that he had violated the Arkansas Rules of Professional Conduct. He accepted a punishment far harsher than the reprimand normally given in similar situations, but escaped criminal prosecution. </p>
<h2>Preserving the rule of law</h2>
<p>Trump now faces multiple criminal investigations that could result in an indictment. No former president has faced so many possible indictments. </p>
<p>Any decision for or against indicting Trump could threaten the rule of law if it is not carefully considered and supported by the evidence. As weighty and historic as the decisions about indicting Trump may seem, they reflect the country’s larger struggle in navigating how to deal with presidential misconduct.</p>
<p>The next steps in Trump’s legal saga will be key in determining how our democracy decides to hold former presidents accountable for their misconduct.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsten Matoy Carlson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump isn’t the first modern president with legal problems, but he would be the first former president to be indicted for alleged crimes.Kirsten Matoy Carlson, Professor of Law and Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1949952023-01-12T13:21:13Z2023-01-12T13:21:13ZCongress investigates presidents, the military, baseball and whatever it wants – a brief modern history of oversight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504124/original/file-20230111-47547-2vxcga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5697%2C3795&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy walks to the speaker's ceremonial office at the Capitol on Jan. 9, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Congress/b9c29b908c04433fb3b7438eb8427703/photo?Query=Kevin%20McCarthy&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=now-14d&totalCount=722&currentItemNo=23">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After regaining a slim majority in the House of Representatives in the November 2022 midterm elections, Republicans unveiled their plans for a series of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/10/politics/gop-investigations-new-congress/index.html">investigations into the Biden administration</a>. </p>
<p>The new Republican majority – after four years in the relatively powerless minority – plans to investigate <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/politics/house-republicans-white-house-hunter-biden/index.html">the Biden family’s connections to foreign businesses</a>, the possible impeachment of <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/five-key-house-republican-investigations-/6911266.html">Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/20/gop-afghan-probe-worries-white-house/">the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan</a>.</p>
<p>Republicans will also establish a Select Committee on China to assess the growing power of what GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy calls “<a href="https://www.republicanleader.gov/leader-mccarthy-announces-rep-mike-gallagher-as-chairman-of-the-china-select-committee/">the greatest geopolitical threat of our lifetime</a>.”</p>
<p>And the House will establish a special Judiciary subcommittee to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/10/us/politics/house-republican-committee-weaponization-government.html">investigate “weaponization of the federal government</a>” and potential bias against conservatives in federal investigations. That subcommittee would give GOP Chair Jim Jordan of Ohio the power to subpoena information from ongoing Department of Justice investigations into former President Donald Trump.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/jan-6-hearings-are-only-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-when-it-comes-to-important-congressional-oversight-hearings-185369">Investigations are a legitimate function of Congress</a>. But there’s another explanation from political science scholarship for all this digging for dirt: Congressional investigations aimed at the White House <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1017/s0022381613001448">can diminish the president’s approval rating</a>. And House Republicans’ legislative agenda may be frustrated by the Senate Democratic majority and the veto power of Democratic President Joe Biden – they won’t be able to pass bills. </p>
<p>So it’s unsurprising that <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40263459">congressional investigations increase under divided government</a>, when Congress and the presidency are controlled by opposing parties, and decrease when the president’s party allies control Congress. </p>
<p>Oversight and investigations almost always occur at the committee level and are dictated by the majority on most panels. House Republicans have the autonomy to initiate investigations into virtually any issue they choose. </p>
<h2>A political weapon?</h2>
<p>Leaders in both parties <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-a-budget/72494-how-oversight-should-work-rep-darrell-issa/">have stressed</a> that good oversight <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/04/trump-investigation-house-democrats-congress-219624/">requires diligent, nonpartisan work that prioritizes fact-finding</a> over political theater. </p>
<p>Yet each party also regularly <a href="https://schiff.house.gov/news/press-releases/rep-schiff-blasts-republican-benghazi-report-">accuses the other</a> of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-wont-talk-to-the-jan-6-committee-democrats-gop-secrets-lefitimacy-trump-weaponizing-government-power-11653597483">using oversight as a political weapon</a>. </p>
<p>Thus, to retain credibility, congressional leaders under divided government are strategic when choosing what to investigate. </p>
<p>Historically, new majorities have targeted the incumbent administration under divided government. But they have also established oversight targets that highlight pet issues, from wasteful government spending to private-sector abuses. </p>
<p>I’m <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/claire-leavitt-1351188">a scholar of government oversight</a> who worked as a fellow on the the House Committee on Oversight and Reform. Here are notable investigations pursued by four different Congresses since 1995. They show the range of congressional oversight, from baseball to the conduct of a president – and a would-be president. </p>
<h2>1. Republican takeover in the 104th Congress of 1995-1996</h2>
<p>In 1994, during President Bill Clinton’s first term, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2007/11/congress-runs-into-republican-revolution-nov-8-1994-006757">Republicans regained control of the House</a> for the first time in 40 years. They took over the Senate for the first time in eight years. </p>
<p>New House Speaker Newt Gingrich prioritized the Republicans’ reform agenda, known as the “<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/19990427174200/http://www.house.gov/house/Contract/CONTRACT.html">Contract with America</a>.” The contract emphasized Republicans’ commitment to rooting out waste, fraud and abuse in government spending, including within Congress itself. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a coat and tie sits in front of a microphone and gestures." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504086/original/file-20230111-32622-hndvs4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">House Speaker Newt Gingrich was the first Republican to lead the House in decades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HouseSpeakerNewtGingrich/bd06ec65e7514f8892ad23bef050a335/photo">AP Photo/Greg Gibson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/07/18/independent-house-audit-finds-millions-wasted-controls-limited/c9dd3d37-1a38-4573-9f76-94d188fd2be6/">independent private audit</a> of the House’s accounting practices commissioned by the Republican majority revealed wasteful spending by House officers and member failure to abide by House spending rules. </p>
<p>Republicans in the 104th Congress also launched major investigations into the Clinton administration. The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform held several hearings into the alleged politically motivated <a href="https://www.congress.gov/congressional-report/104th-congress/house-report/849/1">firing of seven White House Travel Office employees</a>. In 1998, an independent prosecutor concluded that <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1998-11-20-9811200161-story.html">there was no evidence to charge the Clintons for wrongdoing</a>. </p>
<p>Additionally, the Senate established a special committee to investigate property investments in the Whitewater Development Corp. made by Bill and Hillary Clinton when they were governor and first lady of Arkansas. After a 13-month investigation, the Republican majority’s final report accused the Clinton administration of “<a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRPT-104srpt280/pdf/CRPT-104srpt280.pdf">highly improper conduct</a>” but did not provide evidence of criminality.</p>
<h2>2. Democratic takeover in the 110th Congress, 2007-2008</h2>
<p>In the midterm elections of 2006, during President George W. Bush’s second term, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/16/house-control-by-year/">Democrats won control of both chambers</a>. </p>
<p>Democrats devoted significant attention to oversight of nongovernment organizations. <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-110hhrg55749/pdf/CHRG-110hhrg55749.pdf">They investigated the use of steroids in professional baseball</a> and <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-110hhrg45219/pdf/CHRG-110hhrg45219.pdf">abuses of private security contractors</a> in Iraq and Afghanistan. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three men sit in suits sit at a table, with a chart behind them showing oil company profits rising over time." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504088/original/file-20230111-17-474ltv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The House Energy Independence and Global Warming Committee investigated oil company profits and other issues relating to climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/from-left-rep-jay-inslee-d-wash-and-rep-earl-blumenauer-d-news-photo/99576140">Bill Clark/Roll Call/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Democrats also investigated the Bush administration’s handling of the Iraq War, as well as intelligence failures <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/publications/110345.pdf">in the run-up to the 2003 invasion</a>. </p>
<p>The new Democratic majority also elevated issues it believed Bush had neglected. For instance, <a href="https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/globalwarming/mediacenter/pressreleases_id=0045.html#main_content">accusing Republicans of “play[ing] the politics of climate change denial</a>,” House Democrats established the <a href="https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/globalwarming/index.html">Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming</a>. </p>
<p>The committee held 80 hearings over the next four years to investigate, among other issues, the influence of the oil and gas industry on <a href="https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/globalwarming/mediacenter/pressreleases_2008_id=0059.html#main_content">policy made by the Environmental Protection Agency</a>. </p>
<h2>3. Republican majority in the 112th Congress, 2011-2012</h2>
<p>In the 2010 midterm elections during President Barack Obama’s first term, Republicans recaptured the House majority. <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/obamas-2010-shellacking-is-like-bushs-2006-thumping/">Obama described it as a “shellacking</a>.”</p>
<p>House Republicans focused their attention on examining a range of issues, including <a href="https://www.congress.gov/event/112th-congress/house-event/LC3118/text?s=1&r=15">Islamic radicalization</a> and <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/impact-of-obamacare-on-job-creators-and-their-decision-to-offer-health-insurance/">the economic impacts of the Affordable Care Act</a>. </p>
<p>Republicans also aggressively conducted oversight of the Obama administration. House and Senate committees launched a major investigation into the so-called “<a href="https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/grassley-issa-release-first-part-final-joint-report-operation-fast-and-furious">Fast and Furious” gun-running operation at the Department of Justice</a>. The inquiry led to the House’s holding Attorney General Eric Holder <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2012/06/holder-held-in-contempt-of-congress-077988">in contempt of Congress</a> for failing to respond to committee subpoenas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A row of men in suits sit at a table. One leans forward and gestures with his hand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504089/original/file-20230111-26-r0cqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Led by South Carolina Republican Trey Gowdy, second from right, the House Select Committee on Benghazi investigated a 2012 attack on a U.S. consulate in Libya.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BenghaziInvestigation/3bf01f8d31df443bafd8b865172240e5/photo">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Toward the end of the 112th Congress, Republicans also began to investigate the Obama administration’s handling of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/09/10/world/benghazi-consulate-attack-fast-facts/index.html">deadly terrorist attacks on the American consulate in Benghazi, Libya</a>, on the night of Sept. 11, 2012. In the next Congress, Republicans established a special committee <a href="https://www.congress.gov/114/crpt/hrpt848/CRPT-114hrpt848.pdf">dedicated to investigating the Benghazi attacks</a>.</p>
<p>That investigation revealed that when she was secretary of state Hillary Clinton had used a private email server, not the government server she was required to use. The ensuing scandal may have contributed to Clinton’s <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/">loss to Trump in the 2016 presidential election</a>. </p>
<h2>4. Democrats take over House in the 116th Congress, 2019-2020</h2>
<p>In the <a href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Congress/0bf43b961da74226ab031cb7d9230c5c/photo">2018 midterm elections</a> during Trump’s term, Democrats regained control of the House. </p>
<p>The new majority quickly turned its attention to the Trump administration. In one of the first high-profile hearings of the 116th Congress, the House Oversight and Reform Committee <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rKCWG0VOYw">heard testimony from former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen</a> about, among other issues, Trump’s alleged payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of men and women in suits stands around a wooden table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504093/original/file-20230111-46586-883wtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Democrats in the U.S. House investigated President Donald Trump’s income tax returns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-members-of-the-house-ways-and-means-committee-news-photo/1245766550">Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The House Ways and Means Committee began its quest to obtain Trump’s tax returns as part of its probe into accounting practices at the Internal Revenue Service. This investigation led to a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/us/supreme-court-trump-taxes-house-democrats.html">protracted legal battle</a> and culminated in a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/20/politics/trump-tax-summary-ways-and-means-committee/index.html">final report issued at the end of 2022</a> and the <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/house-ways-and-means-trump-tax-report/ee70519acd75513e/full.pdf">public release of six years of Trump’s returns</a> soon after. </p>
<p>And in the fall of 2019, the House began its impeachment inquiry into allegations that Trump had threatened to withhold military aid to Ukraine in order to <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/CDOC-116sdoc13/context">damage one of his primary political opponents, Joe Biden</a>. Trump was impeached by the House for abuse of power and obstruction of justice, though he was acquitted by the Senate in February 2020. </p>
<p>Democrats also launched major inquiries into the private sector, including into <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12/10/house-democrats-find-three-year-investigation-that-drug-prices-are-unsustainable-unjustifiable-unfair/">drug-pricing practices in the pharmaceutical industry</a> and the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/13/politics/juul-house-investigation-krishnamoorthi-health/index.html">marketing of e-cigarettes to teenagers</a>. </p>
<h2>It’s all legit</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/10/house-vote-republicans-committee-investigate-government/">A Washington Post headline</a> on Jan. 10, 2023, described one of the newly announced GOP probes this way: “House Republicans form committee to investigate the government.” </p>
<p>That’s a broad brief for a committee. But the range of past investigations has shown that Congress can, essentially, investigate what it wants to investigate. Baseball one year, government the next.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194995/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Leavitt has received funding from the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) and the Levin Center for Oversight and Democracy. </span></em></p>The House GOP has announced a slew of investigations, including a review of the conduct of the Department of Justice and its investigations of Donald Trump.Claire Leavitt, Assistant Professor of Government, Smith CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1959992022-12-23T13:12:55Z2022-12-23T13:12:55ZJan. 6 committee tackled unprecedented attack with time-tested inquiry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502472/original/file-20221221-20-vyealk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5015%2C3331&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Dec. 19, 2022 meeting of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, DC. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-image-is-displayed-on-a-screen-during-a-meeting-of-the-news-photo/1245732523?phrase=House%20January%206%20committee&adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After 18 months, more than 1,200 interviews and <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/20/jan-6-committees-unanswered-questions">10 public hearings that presented 70 witnesses’ testimony</a>, the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/january-6-committee-final-report/2095325cbebd8378/full.pdf">released its 845-page final report</a> late on Dec. 22, 2022. The report recommended that the Department of Justice prosecute former President Donald Trump on four criminal charges, including conspiracy and incitement of insurrection. It also contained several legislative recommendations, including <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/22/1139951463/electoral-count-act-reform-passes">reform of the process</a> to count electoral votes in presidential elections. The committee also notably recommended that Congress bar Trump and other officials involved in the insurrection from running for office again under the 14th amendment.</p>
<p>The committee’s recommendation to prosecute a former president was unprecedented. But its investigation of the events of Jan. 6, 2021 fell squarely within Congress’ power, and added a new chapter to a centuries-long history of congressional investigations into government scandals and failures.</p>
<h2>Regular oversight</h2>
<p>Congress has broad investigative powers. Its standing and special committees, known as select committees, regularly conduct <a href="https://theconversation.com/jan-6-hearings-are-only-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-when-it-comes-to-important-congressional-oversight-hearings-185369">both preemptive oversight and retroactive investigations</a>. Their aim: to identify specific cases of wrongdoing both inside and outside government. </p>
<p>Committee investigative reports, released at the end of focused probes, often serve as valuable historical documents. They provide detailed chronicles of the events that motivated the inquiries. For instance, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/114/crpt/hrpt848/CRPT-114hrpt848.pdf">the final report released by the House Select Committee on Benghazi</a> offered a minute-by-minute accounting of events leading to the deadly terrorist attacks on the American consulate in Benghazi, Libya, on the night of Sept. 11, 2012. </p>
<p>The reports typically reiterate the questions that prompted the investigation, explain how the committee conducted its work and delineate the relevant evidence and progression of events. Finally, a report will provide provides recommendations for fixing the problems the inquiry uncovered. </p>
<p>These recommendations may be classified into three distinct types: legal, legislative and institutional. Of the 11 distinct recommendations the Jan. 6th committee offered in its final report, one was a legal recommendation focused on accountability, nine proposed new policies and actions, and one proposed increased oversight in Congress itself. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An antique-looking newspaper clipping about a Senate committee's attempt to get witnesses to testify in 1860." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500435/original/file-20221212-110709-uu9du9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A brief New York Times story from Jan. 26, 1860, about witnesses summoned to testify at a Senate committee investigation of John Brown and fellow abolitionists’ raid on a government arsenal at Harpers Ferry, in what is now W.Va.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1860/01/26/88149088.html?pageNumber=2">New York Times archive screenshot</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Legal referrals</h2>
<p>Committees can recommend legal action, such as civil or criminal prosecutions, or both. But Congress cannot itself levy civil or criminal charges against the subjects of investigations. </p>
<p>Instead, committees may recommend that the Department of Justice consider indictments based on the evidence presented in the final committee reports. Federal prosecutors often conduct their own parallel investigations during the same time frame as congressional inquiries but take Congress’ evidence and referrals seriously. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/19/us/jan-6-committee-trump">Jan. 6th committee’s vote on Dec. 19, 2022</a> was the first time Congress has referred a former president for criminal prosecution.</p>
<p>In the 1920s, during its investigation of <a href="https://www.levin-center.org/thomas-walsh-and-the-teapot-dome-investigation/">the Teapot Dome bribery scandal</a>, the Senate Public Lands Committee <a href="http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/johnson/teapotdome.htm">found evidence of corruption by, among others</a>, Interior Secretary Albert Fall. Committee Chairman Thomas Walsh recommended that Fall be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1924/02/10/archives/walsh-arraigns-teapot-dome-looters.html">prosecuted for “contemptuous disregard of the law.”</a> <a href="https://www.levin-center.org/thomas-walsh-and-the-teapot-dome-investigation/">Fall was also investigated by special counsels</a> appointed by President Calvin Coolidge and was indicted and served prison time for bribery. </p>
<p>In the 1970s, <a href="https://www.levin-center.org/the-watergate-hearings/">Congress’ investigation</a> into the Nixon administration’s cover-up of the Watergate break-in led to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2014/01/23/us/watergate-fast-facts/index.html">the conviction of three Nixon aides for obstruction of justice</a>. In the 1980s, the Senate’s Iran-Contra investigation, along with the independent Tower Commission’s report, into secret and unlawful arms sales to Iran by the Reagan administration <a href="https://www.brown.edu/Research/Understanding_the_Iran_Contra_Affair/prosecutions.php">led to the convictions of three Reagan administration advisers</a> for charges ranging from conspiracy to obstruction of Congress. </p>
<p>In highly political investigations, Congress may stop short of recommending specific criminal charges. But it can encourage federal prosecutors to review the committee’s findings over the course of their own investigations. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/whitewater/timeline.htm">in 1994, Attorney General Janet Reno appointed an independent counsel</a> to investigate property investments in the Whitewater Development Corp. made by Bill and Hillary Clinton when they were governor and first lady of Arkansas. </p>
<p>A year later, the Senate established a special committee to conduct its own Whitewater inquiry. <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRPT-104srpt280/pdf/CRPT-104srpt280.pdf">In the Republican majority’s final report</a>, the committee accused the Clinton administration of “highly improper conduct.” But it stopped short of recommending criminal indictments. </p>
<p>In a follow-up letter <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1997/gen/resources/infocus/whitewater/repub.letter.html">to independent counsel Kenneth Starr</a>, the committee suggested that he “take whatever action you deem appropriate” after reviewing the committee’s evidence against three Clinton aides. <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/politics/070199hubbell-starr.html">Starr later indicted one of those aides for fraud</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Many circus clowns in a room watching a TV." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500475/original/file-20221212-113234-uu5no9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Senate’s Watergate hearings, which began May 17, 1973, were watched by an estimated 3 out of 4 of the nation’s homes. Clowns on a break from Shrine Circus in Pittsburgh watched during their time off.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/between-the-acts-clowns-from-the-shrine-circus-take-time-to-news-photo/1169767644?phrase=watergate%20hearing&adppopup=true">Bettmann Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Legislative recommendations</h2>
<p>Committee reports often include guides for policy reform in both the executive and legislative branches to address the failures that sparked the investigation. </p>
<p>Perhaps a committee’s most far-reaching set of legislative proposals came <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/investigations/church-committee.htm">after the Church Committee investigated</a> the CIA’s role in the assassination of foreign leaders and its potentially unconstitutional domestic surveillance. The committee in 1976 made 96 recommendations for reforming the U.S. intelligence community in <a href="https://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/contents/church/contents_church_reports_ir.htm">its final six-volume report</a>. </p>
<p>Two years after the report’s release, Congress followed through. It passed <a href="https://bja.ojp.gov/program/it/privacy-civil-liberties/authorities/statutes/1286">the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act</a>, commonly known as “FISA.” The law required intelligence agencies to obtain warrants before conducting surveillance on American citizens. </p>
<p>In light of the committee’s revelations of the FBI’s spying on activists like Martin Luther King Jr. – <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/encyclopedia/federal-bureau-investigation-fbi">approved by the long-standing agency director, J. Edgar Hoover</a> – Congress also established a single 10-year term for FBI directors. </p>
<p>And while Congress did not enact the Church Committee’s proposal to <a href="https://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/church/reports/ir/html/ChurchIR_0148a.htm">ban foreign assassinations</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Executive-Order-11905">President Gerald Ford did so</a> via executive order in 1976. This order was revised, yet <a href="https://irp.fas.org/crs/RS21037.pdf">upheld, by Presidents Carter, Reagan, Bush and Clinton</a>. But it was weakened by policies adopted for the U.S. war on terror beginning in 2001. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">CIA Director William Colby is interrogated by Sen. Frank Church at a 1975 hearing of the Church Committee on intelligence operations. Colby exhibits a dart pistol that fires poisonous ammunition.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Institutional modifications</h2>
<p>Committees can make suggestions for increasing the ease and effectiveness of future oversight, both inside and outside Congress. Such a move can be sold to fellow legislators as a nonpartisan imperative for checking executive power.</p>
<p>For example, after the conclusion of the Truman Committee’s World War II-era investigation in which it was charged with “<a href="https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/PSI%20Historical%20Background%20-%20Updated%20to%20116th%20Congress.pdf">exposing waste, fraud, and abuse in the war effort and war profiteering</a>,” Congress made the committee permanent, establishing the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. That subcommittee currently has the broadest investigative jurisdiction of any Senate committee, with the power to investigate all government agencies as well as all “<a href="https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/PSI%20Historical%20Background%20-%20Updated%20to%20116th%20Congress.pdf">aspects of crime and lawlessness within the United States which … affect the national health, welfare, and safety</a>.”</p>
<p>And in response to the Church Committee’s suggestion in 1976, Congress established Permanent Select Committees on Intelligence <a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/10535577">in the House</a> <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/about">and Senate</a>. Both have access to classified information and oversight of the U.S. intelligence community, including the CIA and the National Security Agency. </p>
<p>Congress can also pass laws to facilitate or strengthen oversight within government agencies themselves. For instance, <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-92/pdf/STATUTE-92-Pg1101.pdf">the Inspector General Act of 1978</a> established centralized, independent oversight offices in major government agencies. It <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45450">was inspired by</a> a <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/63790NCJRS.pdf">House committee’s final report</a> on waste and mismanagement in the Department of Health, Education and Welfare. </p>
<h2>Political effects</h2>
<p>Committee reports may also have important political consequences, though those effects are not necessarily planned or anticipated. </p>
<p>During its 2014-2016 investigation, for instance, the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/committee/house-select-committee-on-the-events-surrounding-the-2012-terrorist-attack-in-benghazi/hlzi00">House Benghazi committee</a> discovered that Hillary Clinton had improperly used a private email server when she was secretary of state.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/29/us/politics/hillary-clinton-benghazi.html">The committee did not recommend criminal charges against Clinton</a>. But it condemned the State Department for delays in turning over Clinton’s emails to the committee <a href="https://www.congress.gov/114/crpt/hrpt848/CRPT-114hrpt848.pdf">and argued that</a> “[T]he manner in which those records were housed during and after her tenure … makes it impossible to ever represent to the families of those killed in Benghazi that the record is whole.” </p>
<p>The email controversy would dog Clinton in her 2016 campaign for the presidency. The decision by FBI Director James Comey, in October 2016, <a href="https://vault.fbi.gov/director-comey-letter-to-congress-dated-october-28-2016/Director%20Comey%20Letter%20to%20Congress%20Dated%20October%2028%2C%202016%20Part%2001%20of%2001/view">to inform Congress of new information</a> regarding Clinton’s emails <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/">may have contributed to her loss to Donald Trump in November 2016</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195999/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Leavitt has received funding from the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) and the Levin Center for Oversight and Democracy. </span></em></p>The House Jan. 6 committee’s final report is the latest in a long series of congressional studies that have tried to answer hard questions about government failures and suggest ways to avoid them.Claire Leavitt, Assistant Professor of Government, Smith CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1958612022-12-22T13:13:05Z2022-12-22T13:13:05ZHow Democrats won the West<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502278/original/file-20221221-25-1fj47s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C2977%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat, celebrates her re-election to a U.S. Senate seat representing Nevada in November 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022NevadaSenate/4f7fbd0b5e5843ee9f91b4c0d271ca03/photo">AP Photo/Ellen Schmidt</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/12/politics/catherine-cortez-masto-nevada-senate/index.html">U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s win</a> in Nevada guaranteed that Democrats would retain control of the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections. It also confirmed the strength of the Democratic Party in the West. </p>
<p>Since 1992, Democrats have flipped the region away from Republican control, a shift that began with the end of the Cold War and carried through a Pacific Coast economic recession, anti-racism demonstrations and violence in Los Angeles and the area’s increasing diversity.</p>
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<p>I am a professor of political science who has published on the subject of critical elections and how regional realignments in voting patterns have had an impact on presidential elections at the national level.</p>
<p>This shift has been particularly obvious during presidential elections. From 1952 to 1988, Republican politicians dominated the West – the <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/state-by-state/west-region.html">13 states</a> of Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico – in presidential contests, as well as a number of statewide contests. In the presidential elections during those years, Democratic candidates took an average of just 13.9% of the Electoral College votes from those Western states. And in those elections, Democrats received an average of 46.4% of the Western popular vote.</p>
<p>But since 1992, Democrats have won an average of 76% of the Electoral College vote in the West through the 2020 election, with an average of 55% of the two-party vote in those 13 states from the Pacific through the Rockies. Democrats garnered 58% of the Western state vote in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.</p>
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<h2>Government changes alter the economy</h2>
<p>The shift began in the late 1980s, with a series of post-Cold War military base closures across the nation. A presidentially appointed Base Realignment and Closure Commission determined which military bases should remain open and which should close, as the nation’s military needs changed. The West bore a disproportionate share, losing 48 bases, while the rest of the nation as a whole lost 120.</p>
<p>That was true especially in the first two rounds of closures, in 1988 and 1991, under President George H.W. Bush, a Republican. The second set of closures, in 1993 and 1995, under Democratic President Bill Clinton, still leaned heavily on the West, but not as much as the earlier rounds had.</p>
<p>Closing a military base has socioeconomic costs: It means an area <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/details?prodcode=RS22147">loses jobs and revenue for local businesses</a>, especially those that supplied the base or served its personnel or their families. There are also costs of military spouses losing their jobs, and of changes to a community’s sense of itself, often built up over decades, especially in rural areas. And this compounded the region’s economic woes, making Westerners more open to switching their votes from an “R” to a “D.”</p>
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<h2>A recession hits</h2>
<p>Additional economic pressure came during the 1990-91 recession, which disproportionately hit the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1993/02/art3full.pdf">according to Mary C. Dzialo et al.</a> The West suffered the highest levels of unemployment among all four geographic regions, and those who lost jobs or business were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230100428_8">quick to blame Republicans</a>, especially President George H.W. Bush, for the tough economic times.</p>
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<h2>Racial violence</h2>
<p>When four Los Angeles Police Department officers were not found guilty in 1992 of charges in the beating of Rodney King the previous year, the city of Los Angeles was engulfed in the flames of a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/09/18/us/los-angeles-riots-fast-facts/index.html">violent demonstration against racism</a>. Our analysis shows that it was the most severe of the 1980s and 1990s, in terms of deaths, injuries and arrests.</p>
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<p>Instead of acknowledging the police brutality in this case that triggered the societal anger, President Bush focused on “<a href="https://doi.org/10.17953/amer.38.1.41017563463290q7">the brutality of a mob, plain and simple</a>,” according to UCLA sociologist Darnell Hunt. Bush also failed to understand the social and economic factors that had cost Los Angeles jobs and “federal support for housing, education and inner-city community building,” Hunt wrote. </p>
<p>Republicans’ lack of understanding and effort opened up an opportunity for Democrats among minorities and sympathetic whites in the region.</p>
<h2>Increasing diversity</h2>
<p>The West was also getting more diverse, in comparison to other regions. The National Equity Atlas calculates a diversity index for each region, on a <a href="https://nationalequityatlas.org/about-the-atlas/methodology/demographics_indicators">range from zero to 1.79</a>, in which zero indicates that everyone in the area is of the same racial or ethnic group, and 1.79 indicates that equal numbers of people are in each racial or ethnic group. </p>
<p>A look at the index from 1980 to 2019 shows that the West has long been more diverse than the rest of the country, and significantly more so in the 1990s. The rest of the country began to catch up, but the West is still more diverse than the rest of the nation. </p>
<p><a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/160373/democrats-racially-diverse-republicans-mostly-white.aspx">Nonwhites have leaned Democratic in greater numbers</a> thanks to the party’s increased focus on better treatment for minorities, as well as <a href="https://www.salon.com/2022/11/29/dont-care-that-a--just-that-hes-indiscreet-about-it/">the open embrace of white supremacy by some members of the Republican Party</a>.</p>
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<h2>Political independence</h2>
<p>The region’s people also showed they were willing to shift their political allegiances when independent candidate Ross Perot ran for president in 1992. The West averaged more support for the Texas businessman than the average for all other regions, 23.6% to 18.1%.</p>
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<p>Nationally, voters also rewarded the charismatic Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton in 1992, who actually took more votes away from incumbent Republican George H.W. Bush than Perot did.</p>
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<h2>Winning the West means winning the White House</h2>
<p>These economic, social, demographic and political factors of the early 1990s helped contribute to the Democrats flipping the region to their column. This translated into national success for Democrats, who in the eight elections from 1992 to 2020 nearly doubled their average Electoral College votes from the 1952 to 1988 period. Meanwhile, the GOP national average of Electoral College votes declined. </p>
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<p>Democrats have won nearly two-thirds of the national Electoral College races in the past 30 years. And the Republicans have won the popular vote just once since 1992, that being in 2004. It’s a trend likely to give Democrats an electoral advantage nationally unless the GOP does a better job of appealing to Western voters.</p>
<p><em>Nicole Morales, a LaGrange College undergraduate student, contributed to this work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195861/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John A. Tures does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Democrats have ridden the West to presidential electoral success since 1992, reversing their poor performances from the 1950s through the 1980s.John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948792022-11-17T21:22:01Z2022-11-17T21:22:01ZHow same-sex marriage gained bipartisan support – a decadeslong process has brought it close to being written into federal law<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495987/original/file-20221117-23-l4fall.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People gather to celebrate LGBTQ pride week in Washington, D.C. in June 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1323248787/photo/washington-dc-celebrates-pride-2021.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=or_kRhEqEgdTtx_25mjBc7OpCq_B1pj8mGr88OAjY6Y=">Paul Morigi/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/how-abortion-became-divisive-issue-us-politics-2022-06-24/">public opinion</a> and <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/overview-abortion-laws">different state laws</a> on abortion rights are sharply dividing the country, there’s growing indication that most people agree on another once-controversial topic – protecting same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>The U.S. Senate <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3738525-senate-votes-to-advance-same-sex-marriage-bill/">voted on Nov. 16, 2022</a>, to initiate debate on legislation that would protect same-sex and interracial marriage, making it legal regardless of where these couples live and what state laws determine. </p>
<p>Senators voted 62-37 to move forward on a final vote for the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8404">Respect for Marriage Act</a>, with 12 Republicans joining Democrats in their support for the bill. </p>
<p>The legislation would also repeal the 1996 <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/defense_of_marriage_act_(doma)">Defense of Marriage Act</a>, a federal law that defines marriage as the legal union between a man and a woman.</p>
<p>The U.S. House of Representatives already voted on July 19, 2022, to <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8404/text?r=1&s=1">enshrine same-sex marriage </a> into law with a bipartisan vote – all 220 Democratic representatives voted in favor, joined by 47 Republican colleagues. </p>
<p><a href="https://academics.morris.umn.edu/tim-lindberg">I am a scholar</a> of political behavior and history in the U.S. I believe that it’s important to understand that the bipartisan support for this bill marks a significant political transformation on same-sex marriage, which was used as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096505056295">contentious point</a> separating Democrats and Republicans roughly 15 to 20 years ago.</p>
<p>But over the past several years, same-sex marriage has become less politically divisive and gained more public approval, driven in part by former President Donald Trump’s general <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/16/republicans-gay-marriage-wars-505041">acceptance of the practice</a>. This environment made it politically safe for nearly a quarter of Republican House members to vote to protect this right under federal law. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A middle aged white woman with blonde hair and a blue pantsuit walks through a room, with other younger women at her side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is one of the 12 Republican lawmakers who voted to advance the same-sex marriage bill on Nov. 16, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1442021062/photo/senate-votes-on-same-sex-marriage-equality-bill.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=v4sctFA99ZLcKMvkcn17X6GiI7XrlcaMoGie4GvVJmM=">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What makes opinions change?</h2>
<p>Seventy-one percent of Americans say they support legal same-sex marriage, according to a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/393197/same-sex-marriage-support-inches-new-high.aspx">July 2022 Gallup poll</a>. In 1996, when Gallup first polled about same-sex marriage, 27% supported legalization of same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>This shift in public opinion has happened despite increasing polarization in the U.S. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/12/17/in-a-politically-polarized-era-sharp-divides-in-both-partisan-coalitions/">about gun control, racial justice</a> and climate change.</p>
<p>What becomes, remains or ceases to be a divisive political issue in the U.S. over time depends on many factors. Changes to laws, shifting cultural norms and technological progress can all shape political controversies.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0898030619000277">My research, for example, explores</a> how Mormons in Utah territory – what would later become Utah state – were denied statehood by Congress until they gave up their religious belief in polygamy. Polygamy was outlawed under U.S. law, and known polygamists were excluded from voting and holding office. In the 1880s, <a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-polygamy-and-its-history-in-the-mormon-church-81384">an estimated 20% to 30%</a> of Mormons practiced polygamy. Yet, political pressure led the Mormon Church president in 1890 to <a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-polygamy-and-its-history-in-the-mormon-church-81384">announce</a> that polygamy would no longer be sanctioned. </p>
<p>In 2011, <a href="https://www.deseret.com/2012/1/15/20244382/mormons-say-polygamy-morally-wrong-pew-poll-shows">86% of Mormon adults reported that they consider polygamy morally wrong</a>, nearly in line with <a href="https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/214601/moral-acceptance-polygamy-record-high-why.aspx">general public opinion</a>. </p>
<p>Many political leaders, both on the left and right, were also largely hostile to same-sex marriage <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/high-profile-politicians-changed-positions-gay-marriage/story?id=18740293">until the early 2010s.</a> </p>
<h2>A rising controversy</h2>
<p>In 1993, the Hawaii Supreme Court ruled that the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/05/31/issenberg-book-excerpt-bill-woods-honolulu-doma-491401">state must have a compelling reason to ban same-sex marriage</a>, after a gay male couple and two lesbian couples <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/05/07/us/in-hawaii-step-toward-legalized-gay-marriage.html">filed a suit</a> that a state ban on same-sex marriage violated their privacy and equal protection rights. </p>
<p>Concern among conservatives that this legal reasoning would lead the Supreme Court to acknowledge a right to same-sex marriage led to a <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/how-and-why-doma-became-law-1996-msna20387">Republican Senator and Congressman</a> introducing the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/defense_of_marriage_act_(doma)">Defense of Marriage Act</a>.</p>
<p>President Bill Clinton signed the bill in 1996 after <a href="https://law.jrank.org/pages/6038/Defense-Marriage-Act-1996.html">342 – or 78% – of House members and 85 senators</a> voted for it. Polling at the time showed support among the general population for same-sex marriage was <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/210566/support-gay-marriage-edges-new-high.aspx">27% overall, including just 33% among Democrats</a>. </p>
<p>Seven years later, in 2003, the Massachusetts Supreme Court struck down a <a href="http://masscases.com/cases/sjc/440/440mass309.html">state ban on same-sex marriage</a>. With a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/311672/support-sex-marriage-matches-record-high.aspx">strong majority nationally of Republicans and independents opposed to same-sex marriage</a>, former President George W. Bush used conservative reactions to that decision to encourage voter turnout in 2004. <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/GAY-MARRIAGE-Did-issue-help-re-elect-Bush-2677003.php">Bush’s campaign highlighted state amendments to ban same-sex marriage</a>, all of which easily passed. </p>
<p>Although voters prioritized <a href="https://doi.org/10.2202/1540-8884.1056">other issues</a> in the 2004 elections, the opposition to same-sex marriage <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.2202/1540-8884.1058/html">helped Bush win reelection</a>, while Republicans picked up seats in both the House and Senate.</p>
<h2>A political change</h2>
<p>The legal and political landscape on same-sex marriage <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/06/24/same-sex-marriage-timeline/29173703/">became much more liberal</a> in the years following 2004. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/prop-8-passed-california-gay-marriage">In 2008,</a> state courts in California and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/11/nyregion/11marriage.html">Connecticut struck down</a> bans on same-sex marriage. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gaymarriage-vermont/vermont-becomes-4th-u-s-state-to-allow-gay-marriage-idUSTRE53648V20090407">Vermont became</a> the first state in 2009 to pass legislation and legalize same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>A major national shift occurred in 2012 <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-biden-forced-hand-on-same-sex-marriage-but-alls-well/">when then-Vice President Joe Biden</a> and President Barack Obama openly supported same-sex marriage. This was a major change for both men. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/22/politics/marriage-equality-congress-evolution/index.html">Biden had voted in favor of the Defense of Marriage Act</a>in 1996. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/dissecting-president-obamas-evolution-gay-marriage/story?id=18792720">Obama publicly supported</a> marriage as being between a man and a woman in his 2004 senatorial campaign.</p>
<p>In 2015, the Supreme Court <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/14-556">struck down</a> all national and state restrictions on same-sex marriage, making same-sex marriage the law of the land.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The White House is shown at night, light up with rainbow colors." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rainbow-colored lights shine on the White House after the Supreme Court ruled in favor of same-sex marriage in June 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/rainbowcolored-lights-shine-on-the-white-house-to-celebrate-todays-us-picture-id478678270?s=2048x2048">Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Trump effect</h2>
<p>The lack of attention Trump paid to same-sex marriage is one factor that contributed to it becoming a less divisive issue. While Trump’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/24/absurb-claim-that-trump-is-most-pro-gay-president-american-history/">actual record on LBGTQ rights</a> generally aligns with conservative Christian values, Trump had said in 2016 that he was <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-same-sex-marriage-231310">“fine” with legalizing same-sex marriage</a>. </p>
<p>Still, despite the legality of same-sex marriage, many conservative Midwestern and Southern states <a href="https://www.hrc.org/resources/state-maps">deny other legal protections</a> to LBGTQ persons. Twenty-nine states still allow licensed professionals to conduct youth gay-conversion therapy, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/07/health/conversion-therapy-personal-and-financial-harm/index.html">a discredited process to convert LGBTQ people into no longer being queer</a>. </p>
<p>More than 20 states allow discrimination in <a href="https://www.lgbtmap.org/equality-maps/non_discrimination_laws">both housing</a> and public accommodations based on sexual orientation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman holds up a sign that says 'every child deserves a mom and dad'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman participates in a protest in Washington after the Supreme Court’s ruling on same-sex marriage in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/opponents-of-samesex-marriage-demonstrate-near-the-supreme-court-28-picture-id471432028?s=2048x2048">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Respect for marriage</h2>
<p>Sens. Mitt Romney of Utah, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski, representing Alaska, are among <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3739118-these-12-gop-senators-voted-for-same-sex-marriage-bill/">the 12 moderate Republican politicians</a> who voted to advance the same-sex marriage bill.</p>
<p>“I have long supported marriage equality and believe all lawful marriages deserve respect,” Murkowski said in a statement on Nov. 16, 2022. “All Americans deserve dignity, respect and equal protection under the law.” </p>
<p>Some Republican leaders, though, have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/22/us/politics/after-roe-republicans-sharpen-attacks-on-gay-and-transgender-rights.html">grown bolder </a>in their opposition to same-sex marriage since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision. </p>
<p>These Republicans have said that codifying federal law same-sex marriage is <a href="https://www.vox.com/23274491/senate-republicans-same-sex-marriage-bill-respect-for-marriage-act">not necessary</a> since they don’t believe the Supreme Court is likely to overturn federal protections for same-sex marriage. </p>
<p>Democrats first moved to protect same-sex marriage in federal law because Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas wrote in a concurring opinion in the Dobbs case that the court <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256">should reconsider,</a> “all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell,” the latter being the case that legalized same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>But despite public opinion polls showing that most people favor legalizing same-sex marriage – including <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/311672/support-sex-marriage-matches-record-high.aspx">nearly half</a> of Republicans – the issue could still be a liability for Republican politicians. </p>
<p>Should the Senate approve the bill – it is to hold a final vote by the end of November 2022 – Republicans will then have to answer to their core conservative constituents who largely oppose the practice. <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3570528-same-sex-marriage-debate-poses-problems-for-republicans/">This could mean</a> that Senate Republicans may have to consider splitting from their own base, or stepping away from moderate voters. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/congress-is-considering-making-same-sex-marriage-federal-law-a-political-scientist-explains-how-this-issue-became-less-polarized-over-time-187509">article originally published on Aug. 2, 2022</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Lindberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The U.S. Senate voted to advance a bill that protect same-sex marriage by a wide margin– thanks to support from 12 Republicans. Same-sex marriage isn’t the partisan issue it once was.Tim Lindberg, Assistant professor, political science , University of MinnesotaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1875092022-08-02T12:59:43Z2022-08-02T12:59:43ZCongress is considering making same-sex marriage federal law – a political scientist explains how this issue became less polarized over time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476974/original/file-20220801-24-y51nxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A same-sex marriage supporter waves a rainbow flag outside the Supreme Court in 2015.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/samesex-marriage-supporter-vin-testa-of-washington-dc-waves-a-rainbow-picture-id471417652?s=2048x2048">Drew Angerer/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/how-abortion-became-divisive-issue-us-politics-2022-06-24/">public opinion</a> and <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/overview-abortion-laws">different state laws</a> on abortion rights are sharply dividing the country, there’s growing indication that most people agree on another once-controversial topic – protecting same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>The U.S. House of Representatives voted on July 19, 2022, to <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8404/text?r=1&s=1">enshrine same-sex marriage </a> into law with a bipartisan vote – all 220 Democratic representatives voted in favor, joined by 47 Republican colleagues. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8404">Respect for Marriage Act</a>, as it is called, would repeal the 1996 <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/defense_of_marriage_act_(doma)">Defense of Marriage Act,</a> a federal law that defines marriage as the legal union between a man and a woman.</p>
<p>The bill faces an <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-split-sex-marriage-bill-faces-uncertainty-senate-rcna39574">uncertain fate</a> in the closely divided Senate – so far, five Republicans out of 50 have said they would vote for it. Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer <a href="https://www.vox.com/23274491/senate-republicans-same-sex-marriage-bill-respect-for-marriage-act">has said</a> the Senate will vote on the bill once it has 10 Republican votes. </p>
<p><a href="https://academics.morris.umn.edu/tim-lindberg">I am a scholar</a> of political behavior and history in the U.S. I believe that it’s important to understand that the bipartisan support for this bill marks a significant political transformation on same-sex marriage, which was used as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096505056295">contentious point</a> separating Democrats and Republicans roughly 15 to 20 years ago.</p>
<p>But over the past several years, same-sex marriage has become less politically divisive and gained more public approval, driven in part by former President Donald Trump’s general <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/16/republicans-gay-marriage-wars-505041">acceptance of the practice</a>. This environment made it politically safe for nearly a quarter of Republican House members to vote to protect this right under federal law. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476967/original/file-20220801-24-s4g4yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men wearing suits stand with their backs to the camera and signs that say Just Married on their backs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476967/original/file-20220801-24-s4g4yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476967/original/file-20220801-24-s4g4yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476967/original/file-20220801-24-s4g4yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476967/original/file-20220801-24-s4g4yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476967/original/file-20220801-24-s4g4yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476967/original/file-20220801-24-s4g4yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476967/original/file-20220801-24-s4g4yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A same-sex couple are shown after they married at San Francisco City Hall in June 2008.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/samesex-couple-ariel-owens-and-his-spouse-joseph-barham-walk-arm-in-picture-id81601297?s=2048x2048">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What makes opinions change?</h2>
<p>Seventy-one percent of Americans say they support legal same-sex marriage, according to a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/393197/same-sex-marriage-support-inches-new-high.aspx">July 2022 Gallup poll</a>. In 1996, when Gallup first polled about same-sex marriage, 27% supported legalization of same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>This shift in public opinion has happened despite increasing polarization in the U.S. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/12/17/in-a-politically-polarized-era-sharp-divides-in-both-partisan-coalitions/">about gun control, racial justice</a> and climate change.</p>
<p>What becomes, remains or ceases to be a divisive political issue in the U.S. over time depends on many factors. Changes to laws, shifting cultural norms and technological progress can all shape political controversies.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0898030619000277">My research, for example, explores</a> how Mormons in Utah territory – what would later become Utah state – were denied statehood by Congress until they gave up their religious belief in polygamy. Polygamy was outlawed under U.S. law, and known polygamists were excluded from voting and holding office. In the 1880s, <a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-polygamy-and-its-history-in-the-mormon-church-81384">an estimated 20% to 30%</a> of Mormons practiced polygamy. Yet, political pressure led the Mormon Church president in 1890 to <a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-polygamy-and-its-history-in-the-mormon-church-81384">announce</a> that polygamy would no longer be sanctioned. </p>
<p>In 2011, <a href="https://www.deseret.com/2012/1/15/20244382/mormons-say-polygamy-morally-wrong-pew-poll-shows">86% of Mormon adults reported that they consider polygamy morally wrong</a>, nearly in line with <a href="https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/214601/moral-acceptance-polygamy-record-high-why.aspx">general public opinion</a>. </p>
<p>Many political leaders, both on the left and right, were also largely hostile to same-sex marriage <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/high-profile-politicians-changed-positions-gay-marriage/story?id=18740293">until the early 2010s.</a> </p>
<h2>A rising controversy</h2>
<p>In 1993, the Hawaii Supreme Court ruled that the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/05/31/issenberg-book-excerpt-bill-woods-honolulu-doma-491401">state must have a compelling reason to ban same-sex marriage</a>, after a gay male couple and two lesbian couples <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/05/07/us/in-hawaii-step-toward-legalized-gay-marriage.html">filed a suit</a> that a state ban on same-sex marriage violated their privacy and equal protection rights. </p>
<p>Concern among conservatives that this legal reasoning would lead the Supreme Court to acknowledge a right to same-sex marriage led to a <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/how-and-why-doma-became-law-1996-msna20387">Republican Senator and Congressman</a> introducing the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/defense_of_marriage_act_(doma)">Defense of Marriage Act</a>.</p>
<p>President Bill Clinton signed the bill in 1996 after <a href="https://law.jrank.org/pages/6038/Defense-Marriage-Act-1996.html">342 – or 78% – of House members and 85 senators</a> voted for it. Polling at the time showed support among the general population for same-sex marriage was <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/210566/support-gay-marriage-edges-new-high.aspx">27% overall, including just 33% among Democrats</a>. </p>
<p>Seven years later, in 2003, the Massachusetts Supreme Court struck down a <a href="http://masscases.com/cases/sjc/440/440mass309.html">state ban on same-sex marriage</a>. With a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/311672/support-sex-marriage-matches-record-high.aspx">strong majority nationally of Republicans and independents opposed to same-sex marriage</a>, former President George W. Bush used conservative reactions to that decision to encourage voter turnout in 2004. <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/GAY-MARRIAGE-Did-issue-help-re-elect-Bush-2677003.php">Bush’s campaign highlighted state amendments to ban same-sex marriage</a>, all of which easily passed. </p>
<p>Although voters prioritized <a href="https://doi.org/10.2202/1540-8884.1056">other issues</a> in the 2004 elections, the opposition to same-sex marriage <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.2202/1540-8884.1058/html">helped Bush win reelection</a>, while Republicans picked up seats in both the House and Senate.</p>
<h2>A political change</h2>
<p>The legal and political landscape on same-sex marriage <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/06/24/same-sex-marriage-timeline/29173703/">became much more liberal</a> in the years following 2004. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/prop-8-passed-california-gay-marriage">In 2008,</a> state courts in California and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/11/nyregion/11marriage.html">Connecticut struck down</a> bans on same-sex marriage. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gaymarriage-vermont/vermont-becomes-4th-u-s-state-to-allow-gay-marriage-idUSTRE53648V20090407">Vermont became</a> the first state in 2009 to pass legislation and legalize same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>A major national shift occurred in 2012 <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-biden-forced-hand-on-same-sex-marriage-but-alls-well/">when then-Vice President Joe Biden</a> and President Barack Obama openly supported same-sex marriage. This was a major change for both men. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/22/politics/marriage-equality-congress-evolution/index.html">Biden had voted in favor of the Defense of Marriage Act</a>in 1996. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/dissecting-president-obamas-evolution-gay-marriage/story?id=18792720">Obama publicly supported</a> marriage as being between a man and a woman in his 2004 senatorial campaign.</p>
<p>In 2015, the Supreme Court <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/14-556">struck down</a> all national and state restrictions on same-sex marriage, making same-sex marriage the law of the land.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The White House is shown at night, light up with rainbow colors." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rainbow-colored lights shine on the White House after the Supreme Court ruled in favor of same-sex marriage in June 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/rainbowcolored-lights-shine-on-the-white-house-to-celebrate-todays-us-picture-id478678270?s=2048x2048">Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Trump effect</h2>
<p>The lack of attention Trump paid to same-sex marriage is one factor that contributed to it becoming a less divisive issue. While Trump’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/24/absurb-claim-that-trump-is-most-pro-gay-president-american-history/">actual record on LBGTQ rights</a> generally aligns with conservative Christian values, Trump had said in 2016 that he was <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-same-sex-marriage-231310">“fine” with legalizing same-sex marriage</a>. </p>
<p>Still, despite the legality of same-sex marriage, many conservative Midwestern and Southern states <a href="https://www.hrc.org/resources/state-maps">deny other legal protections</a> to LBGTQ persons. Twenty-nine states still allow licensed professionals to conduct youth gay-conversion therapy, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/07/health/conversion-therapy-personal-and-financial-harm/index.html">a discredited process to convert LGBTQ people into no longer being queer</a>. </p>
<p>More than 20 states allow discrimination in <a href="https://www.lgbtmap.org/equality-maps/non_discrimination_laws">both housing</a> and public accommodations based on sexual orientation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman holds up a sign that says 'every child deserves a mom and dad'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman participates in a protest in Washington after the Supreme Court’s ruling on same-sex marriage in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/opponents-of-samesex-marriage-demonstrate-near-the-supreme-court-28-picture-id471432028?s=2048x2048">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Respect for marriage</h2>
<p>Some Republican leaders have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/22/us/politics/after-roe-republicans-sharpen-attacks-on-gay-and-transgender-rights.html">grown bolder </a>in their opposition to same-sex marriage since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision. </p>
<p>Other Republicans have said that codifying federal law same-sex marriage is <a href="https://www.vox.com/23274491/senate-republicans-same-sex-marriage-bill-respect-for-marriage-act">not necessary</a> since they don’t believe the Supreme Court is likely to overturn federal protections for same-sex marriage. </p>
<p>Democrats first moved to protect same-sex marriage in federal law because Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas wrote in a concurring opinion in the Dobbs case that the court <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256">should reconsider,</a> “all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell,” the latter being the case that legalized same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>But despite public opinion polls showing that most people favor legalizing same-sex marriage – including <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/311672/support-sex-marriage-matches-record-high.aspx">nearly half</a> of Republicans – the issue could still be a liability for Republican politicians. They have to answer to their core conservative constituents who largely oppose the practice. <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3570528-same-sex-marriage-debate-poses-problems-for-republicans/">This could mean</a> that Senate Republicans may have to consider splitting from their own base, or stepping away from moderate voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Lindberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The U.S. House of Representatives recently voted for a bill that would federally protect same-sex marriage – and 47 Republicans signed on, too. Same-sex marriage isn’t the partisan issue it once was.Tim Lindberg, Assistant professor, political science , University of MinnesotaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1878162022-07-27T18:31:12Z2022-07-27T18:31:12ZHow do grand juries work? Their major role in criminal justice, and why prosecutors are using them to investigate efforts to overturn the 2020 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476340/original/file-20220727-25-kj5r0k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C30%2C5116%2C3647&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Marc Short, former Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff, testified in late July before a federal grand jury investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolRiotPenceAide/aa1d4f3823a14054abbd910df622ebd9/photo?Query=grand%20jury&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=5118&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Grand juries play a major role in the U.S. criminal justice system. And they’re very much in the news these days.</p>
<p><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/georgia-governor-testimony-fulton-county-election-probe-report/story?id=87425868">A grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia</a>, is looking into former President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results in that state. Among the latest witnesses to give testimony to the grand jury was Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp.</p>
<p>In Washington, D.C., the U.S. Justice Department is in the middle of an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/26/trump-justice-investigation-january-6/">investigation into efforts to overturn the 2020 election</a>, and it is questioning witnesses before a grand jury as well. Most recently, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-questions-top-pence-aides-over-trump-bid-to-overturn-election-11658783628">two top aides to former Vice President Mike Pence were questioned</a> in that probe. </p>
<p>A grand jury does not mean that the investigation will lead to any formal criminal charges, which are known as indictments. There was a grand jury that issued subpoenas during the investigation into <a href="http://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-fbi-court-filing-reveals-grand-jury-targeted-hillary-clinton/">Hillary Clinton’s email server</a>, for example, but no one was charged with any crimes. </p>
<p>In order to understand grand juries and their work, I offer the following explanation of how federal and state grand juries are used in the U.S.</p>
<h2>Legal basis: Federal and state</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://constitution.findlaw.com/amendment5.html">Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution</a> provides the legal basis for grand juries. In federal criminal cases, federal grand juries are made up of 16 to 23 members. They decide whether to indict someone who is being investigated, and at least 12 grand jurors need to agree to issue an indictment. </p>
<p>In addition to considering whether individuals may have committed a crime, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/jm/jm-9-11000-grand-jury">a grand jury can also be used by a prosecutor as an investigative tool</a> to compel witnesses to testify or turn over documents. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/special-counsel-mueller-using-grand-jury-in-federal-court-in-washington-as-part-of-russia-investigation/2017/08/03/1585da56-7887-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html?utm_term=.0041dedbde14">Reports</a> indicate that Special Counsel Robert Mueller used a grand jury for the latter when he investigated whether there was collusion between former President Donald Trump’s election campaign and Russia to influence the 2016 election.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bearded man in judge's robes sitting at a large desk, with the state seal of Georgia on the wall behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476367/original/file-20220727-15-elzctq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney instructs potential jurors during proceedings to seat a special purpose grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia, May 2, 2022, to look into attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GeorgiaElectionInvestigation/bd5b51f1f655406fa6b62ebfd189e0e9/photo?Query=grand%20jury&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=5118&currentItemNo=7">AP Photo/Ben Gray</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Makeup of a grand jury</h2>
<p>Grand jurors are usually chosen from the same jury pool as trial jurors. For a <a href="https://www.flmd.uscourts.gov/sites/flmd/files/documents/handbook-for-federal-grand-jurors.pdf">federal grand jury</a>, all U.S. citizens over the age of 18 living in the federal district court’s geographic jurisdiction are in the pool. </p>
<p>Court clerks first identify members of the grand jury pool from public records, including records of licensed drivers and registered voters.</p>
<p>Next, prospective grand jurors are screened, usually through questionnaires. </p>
<p>To be a member of a federal grand jury, a person has to be adequately proficient in English, have no disqualifying mental or physical condition, not be currently subject to felony charges punishable by imprisonment for more than one year and never have been convicted of a felony (unless civil rights have been legally restored). The court then randomly chooses candidates for the grand jury from this pool.</p>
<h2>Work of the grand jury</h2>
<p>In all felony cases, there must be a “probable cause determination” that a crime has been committed in order for a case to move forward to a trial or a plea. “Probable cause” means that there must be some evidence of each element of the offense. </p>
<p>In the federal system, a grand jury is the body that makes the probable cause determination. In many states, like Missouri, the probable cause determination can be made either by a <a href="https://ago.mo.gov/docs/default-source/publications/courtprocess.pdf?sfvrsn=4">grand jury or at a preliminary hearing</a> before a judge. </p>
<p>When there is an option for either a grand jury or preliminary hearing to determine probable cause, the prosecutor decides which one to use. For example, in the shooting death of Michael Brown by police officer Darren Wilson in 2014, the St. Louis County prosecuting attorney brought the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-grand-jury-in-the-darren-wilson-case-and-beyond-34857">evidence to a grand jury</a> rather than choosing to present evidence to a judge through a preliminary hearing. In serious cases like murder, most prosecutors use the grand jury because it is usually quicker than a preliminary hearing.</p>
<p>Most people whose cases go to the grand jury have already been arrested. These include all of the cases in which a person is arrested while committing a crime or shortly after the crime has been committed.</p>
<p>In some cases, like Mueller’s Russia investigation, prosecutors do not have all the evidence they need to make a good case. In these investigations, a grand jury is used to help with the investigation. Once the grand jury is impaneled, the prosecutor has the ability to subpoena records and witnesses. </p>
<p>Subpoena power means the prosecutor can compel witnesses to turn over documents and to testify. If the prosecutor obtains sufficient evidence of a crime, the same grand jury has the power to indict whomever it believes has committed a crime.</p>
<p><a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/secrecy/R45456.pdf">The work of a grand jury is required by law to be done in secret</a>, so the public has no right to know who is subpoenaed or what documents the grand jury is reviewing. Even though the grand jury work is secret, federal rules and a majority of states permit grand jury witnesses to discuss what occurred when they testified. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181295/original/file-20170807-25539-17c5ww3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Clinton in videotaped grand jury testimony Aug. 17, 1998.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/APTV</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In some high-profile cases, witnesses subpoenaed to appear before the grand jury will talk to the press if they think it will be helpful to them. For example, when former President Bill Clinton testified before a grand jury during the investigation into Whitewater real estate investment and the affair with Monica Lewinsky, <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/clinton-testifies-before-grand-jury">he went on national television</a> and announced that he had testified.</p>
<h2>Potential dangers</h2>
<p>The secrecy of a grand jury presents some dangers. The defendant does not know the evidence being considered, does not have a right to be present, and cannot question the evidence early in the criminal justice process. </p>
<p>As a result of the secrecy, the grand jury can also end up being a tool of the prosecution, and the prosecutor can choose to withhold evidence that is favorable to the accused. That is why a former chief judge of the New York Court of Appeals, the highest court in New York, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/18/opinion/do-we-need-grand-juries.html">famously said</a> that a prosecutor could get a grand jury “to indict a ham sandwich.” </p>
<p>These types of dangers are always present during any grand jury, and getting a grand jury to issue an indictment may be easy. But in high-profile cases, like the Russia connection to the Trump presidency and possibly the current investigation into Trump’s efforts to overturn the election results in Georgia, proving wrongdoing beyond a reasonable doubt through a trial or a negotiated guilty plea usually proves much more difficult. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-grand-jurys-role-in-american-criminal-justice-explained-82197">a story originally published</a> on Aug. 7, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187816/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter A. Joy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Grand juries are meeting in Georgia and Washington, D.C., as part of investigations into attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. How do they work?Peter A. Joy, Henry Hitchcock Professor of Law, School of Law, Washington University in St LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.