tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/brazil-protests-6095/articlesBrazil protests – The Conversation2024-02-28T19:14:56Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2211162024-02-28T19:14:56Z2024-02-28T19:14:56Z‘If we burn … then what?’ A new book asks why a decade of mass protest has done so little to change things<p>In 2010, in response to ongoing ill-treatment by police, a fruit vendor performed an act of self-immolation in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia. This set off an uprising that led to the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/1/14/remembering-the-day-tunisias-president-ben-ali-fled">removal of dictator Ben Ali</a> and a process to rewrite the constitution in a democratic direction. </p>
<p>Inspired by this, huge demonstrations against police brutality erupted in Egypt, centred in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, the protesters calling for the removal of the country’s president, <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/02/hosni-mubarak-legacy-of-mass-torture/">Hosni Mubarak</a>. </p>
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<p><em>If We Burn: The Mass Protest Decade and the Missing Revolution – Vincent Bevins (Hachette)</em></p>
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<p>These events catalysed what Vincent Bevins calls the “mass protest decade”. The years from 2010 to 2020 saw a record number of protests around the world seeking to transform societies in broadly progressive ways. Many groups were inspired by democratic ideals. </p>
<p>These protests were truly global. Those in Tunisia and Egypt became part of the wider uprising that came to be called the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/25/how-the-arab-spring-unfolded-a-visualisation">Arab Spring</a>”. </p>
<p>In 2013, the <em><a href="https://nvdatabase.swarthmore.edu/content/brazilian-free-fare-movement-mpl-mobilizes-against-fare-hikes-2013">Movimento Passe Livre</a></em> (MPL) or “Free Fare Movement” led to mass protests in Brazil. Initially directed against rises in transport fares, they rapidly expanded to include an unwieldy and contradictory set of groups and grievances. </p>
<p>Many other protests sprang up, including Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests in 2014, dubbed the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/30/-sp-hong-kong-umbrella-revolution-pro-democracy-protests">umbrella movement</a>” in their first phase by the global press. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whatever-happened-to-the-arab-spring-10973">Whatever Happened to the 'Arab Spring'? </a>
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<h2>From bad to worse</h2>
<p>In his new book <a href="https://www.hachette.com.au/vincent-bevins/if-we-burn-the-mass-protest-decade-and-the-missing-revolution-as-good-as-journalism-gets">If We Burn: The Mass Protest Decade and the Missing Revolution</a>, Bevins starts by asking “how is it possible that so many mass protests apparently led to the opposite of what they asked for?” </p>
<p>The answer he provides is suggested in the book’s title, which <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If5w78BrmT4">he expands</a> as: “If we burn … then what?” </p>
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<p>Aiming to make sense of the significant role of mass protest across the decade, Bevins focuses on countries where the protest movements were so large that the existing government was either seriously destabilised or dislodged: Bahrain, Brazil, Chile, Egypt, Hong Kong, South Korea, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine and Yemen. His book explores why movements failed to achieve their goals and why, in many cases, things got decidedly worse. </p>
<p>In Egypt, for example, the Mubarak regime ended up being replaced by the even worse <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-sisi-authoritarian-leader-with-penchant-bridges-2023-12-08/">El-Sisi dictatorship</a>. In Brazil, the leftist-led protests ended up undermining the progressive government led by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Dilma-Rousseff">Dilma Rousseff</a>, when groups on the right adopted similar tactics, media strategies, and anti-establishment and anti-corruption rhetoric. What ensued led to the impeachment of President Rousseff and the rise to power of far-right demagogue <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Jair_Bolsonaro">Jair Bolsonaro</a>.</p>
<p>For a significant part of the mass protest decade, Bevins was based in Sao Paulo as the Brazil correspondent for the Los Angeles Times. In If We Burn, he draws on his extensive experience as a journalist, as well as his academic background. He has travelled around the world and conducted over 200 interviews in 12 countries, which he has woven into an interesting narrative history. </p>
<p>His particular focus is on the activists who conceived and enacted the protest movements. Bevins covers their experiences at the time and, later in the book, what they came to understand about the events that unfolded, and their advice for future activists. He also engages with others, such as politicians and journalists, and draws on the work of social and political theorists. </p>
<p>The narrative is slanted towards his Brazilian home base. Bevins was there to witness the Free Fare Movement and the waves of mass protest it unleashed. Caught up in the action, he experienced, among other things, tear gassing. His colleague Giuliana Vallone was shot in the eye with a rubber bullet.</p>
<p>Vallone found her picture “flying through social networks”. Her image was used as a part of the Brazilian media’s reframing of the protests from broadly bad (leftist troublemakers) to broadly good (nationalists and patriots). </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578462/original/file-20240228-28-jrhegh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Journalist Guiliana Vallone was hit in the eye with a rubber bullet during the Free Fare Movement protests in Brazil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6QVLE8PQJ8">YouTube</a></span>
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<p>The effect of this reframing illustrates the power of dominant news media. As Bevins argues, media narratives shaped how the decades’ protests were viewed around the world, but they also shaped the configuration of the protests in real time, influencing who showed up, and why.</p>
<p>The reframing turbo-charged popular support for the mass protests across Brazil – but not in ways that aligned with the goals of the originators of the protests, which were taken over by an assortment of better organised right-wing groups, including proto-Bolsonaristas. </p>
<p>In a classic right-wing tactic, one group – the <em><a href="https://reason.com/2016/10/15/free-brazil/">Movimento Brasil Livre</a></em> (MBL) or “Free Brazil Movement” – even appropriated the originators’ name. “In Brazilian Portuguese,” Bevins notes,“‘MBL’ sounds nearly identical to ‘MPL’.” </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-bolsonaro-failed-to-overthrow-democracy-and-why-a-threat-remains-223498">Why Bolsonaro failed to overthrow democracy – and why a threat remains</a>
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<h2>International solidarity</h2>
<p>On June 13, 2013, while being tear gassed, the crowd in Sao Paulo chanted “love is over – Turkey is here”. They were referring to the ongoing repression of protesters in Turkey, whose <a href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/2019/10/24/legacy-of-gezi-protests-in-turkey-pub-80142">occupation of Gezi Park</a>, next to Taksim Square in Istanbul, began as a protest against the park’s redevelopment, but became a focal point for wider discontentment with the regime of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.</p>
<p>Bevins posts the words on Twitter and is stunned to see them go viral. He receives a flood of images and messages in response. Signs pop up in Gezi Park over the following weeks reading “the whole world is Sao Paulo” and “Turkey and Brazil are one”. </p>
<p>The story exemplifies a new type of international solidarity. Facilitated by the speed of social networking sites, digitally mediated mass protests in significant public places, often squares, emulated the Tahrir Square “model”. </p>
<p>The global protests extended from Taksim Square and Gezi Park in Turkey, to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/12/occupy-wall-street-10-years-on">Zuccotti Park and Occupy Wall St</a> in the United States, to the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-13551878">Plaza del Sol in Spain</a> and the <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/euro-maidan-revolution/">“Euromaidan” protests in Maidan Nezalezhnosti in Ukraine</a>. </p>
<p>Bevins emphasises that these protests tended to share certain features: they were “digitally coordinated … horizontally structured … apparently leaderless … apparently spontaneous”. </p>
<p>He describes this phenomenon as a “repertoire of contention”. It involved a certain “recipe of tactics” that became largely taken for granted as the “natural way to respond to social injustice”. </p>
<h2>Repertoire of contention</h2>
<p>During the protest decade, this “repertoire of contention” was more successful than expected. It often put so many people on the streets that it gave protesters real political leverage. They were suddenly in a position where they could make demands and extract reforms from the political establishment. In some cases, they generated “revolutionary situations” where they might potentially take power themselves. </p>
<p>But this type of protest is, as Bevins observes, “very poorly equipped” to take advantage of the kinds of destabilisation or “revolutionary” situations that they create. In such situations, groups must either enter the ensuing power vacuum or use their leverage to negotiate with the establishment. The problem was that to do this effectively required the type of representation and organisation that had become almost impossible. </p>
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<span class="caption">Vincent Bevins.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vincent_by_Best_Wishes.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>On one hand, Bevins says this was due to the “material conditions” existing before the popular explosions. In the North African dictatorships, for example, unions and alternative political parties had been severely weakened or suppressed. As such, the protests took the “horizontal” form characteristic of the decade.</p>
<p>But in countries with democracies, however imperfect – Brazil and Chile, for example – there were unions and alternative political parties. The horizontal nature of the protests there tended to be driven by an ideological commitment to “horizontalism”. </p>
<p>The ideal was a form of radical participatory democracy, emerging from left-libertarian and anarchist traditions, in which “everyone is equal”. Hierarchy is eschewed, as is any type of enduring formal structure of leaders or spokespeople. As the anthropologist and activist David Graeber wrote: “It is about creating and enacting horizontal networks instead of top-down structures like states, parties or corporations.”</p>
<p>Bevins reports that, at crucial moments, due to their lack of organisation and structure, key actors often replicated tactics they had learned beforehand. Their “repertoire” left them ill-prepared for both the challenges and opportunities that arose.</p>
<p>An unprecedented, technologically facilitated sense of solidarity and inspiration flowed around the world, but it happened so quickly that it led to the “cutting and pasting” of approaches into different national contexts. “Transfer of solidarity” became bound up with “transfer of tactics”. </p>
<p>This meant, in particular, that the “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alter-globalization">alter-globalisation</a>” movement, conceived in the democratic context of North America, had a disproportionate influence, creating a mismatch of tactics and circumstances. The hasty adoption of tactics meant most movements did not take the time to think through strategies that might be successful in their local context. </p>
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<p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/louisa-lims-outstanding-portrait-of-a-dispossessed-defiant-hong-kong-is-the-activist-journalism-we-need-179091">Louisa Lim's 'outstanding' portrait of a dispossessed, defiant Hong Kong is the activist journalism we need</a>
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<h2>New strategies</h2>
<p>Bevins suggests that by taking this and other lessons on board, the deep desire for progressive change, both nationally and in the global system, might come closer to being realised in coming decades. The “mismatches” can be overcome with study and reflection on the events of the mass protest decade. More suitable “repertoires” might be arrived at. </p>
<p>The spontaneous horizontal protests, Bevins observes, “did a very good job of blowing holes in social structures and creating political vacuums”. But the power vacuums they created were filled by those who were ready. </p>
<p>In Egypt, that meant the military. The Gulf countries, especially the United Arab Emirates, were also involved in the El-Sisi coup, via their funding of the anti-Morsi <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23131953">Tamarod movement</a>. In Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council “literally marched in to fill in the gaps”. The Hong Kong movement was crushed by Beijing. In Brazil, Rousseff was “not removed, not immediately; but to the extent that she lost influence in June 2013, that power did not fall to the anti-authoritarian left, as the [Free Fare Movement] would have liked”.</p>
<p>Lasting progressive change, Bevins argues, requires better organisation and vehicles capable of handing down knowledge, strategy and tactics to the next generation of activists. He offers the example of Chile. </p>
<p>In Chile, the role of unions and political parties, as well as the activists engaging in institutional politics, proved more successful in producing progressive outcomes than digitally organised, horizontal, mass protests alone. </p>
<p>The powerful student unions played a strong role. The “autonomist” left-wing activist <a href="https://www.gob.cl/en/institutions/presidency/">Gabriel Boric</a>, who emerged through university politics, ended up becoming president in 2022. He was pivotal in the referendum process that sought to rewrite Chile’s Pinochet-era constitution. </p>
<p>Bevins proposes that the horizontalist left is so traumatised by the “sins of the Soviet Union” and “other revolutions” that many activists have given up “the things that work” – like organisation, structure and co-ordination. </p>
<p>“But if you refuse to use the tools that work”, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If5w78BrmT4">he points out</a>, you are “ceding your power” to those who will. It is “like showing up to a football game without a coach, strategy, or even a clear idea of who’s on your team”. Being well organised does not guarantee success, but it is essential when you enter into conflict with other well organised forces. </p>
<p>Bevins describes the decade’s dominant form of protest as being ultimately “illegible”. A key part of the problem was that “the square” was, in most of these protests, not asking for one coherent thing, or set of things. Activists, years later, often had widely divergent views as to “what the movements were all about”. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Vincent Bevins speaking at the Clough Center for the Study of Constitutional Democracy at Boston College, October 25, 2023.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-20-year-rule-of-recep-tayyip-erdogan-has-transformed-turkey-188211">How the 20 year rule of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has transformed Turkey</a>
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<h2>American influence</h2>
<p>As the world’s dominant superpower, the United States is entwined, in complex ways, with the individual countries and the regional power-politics Bevins discusses. In 2011, for example, the US took the opportunity provided by unrest in Libya, and a brutal state crackdown in response, to invade and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/oct/20/nato-libya-war-26000-missions">overthrow the Gaddafi regime in a NATO mission</a>. Hong Kong protesters came to believe they were “sacrificed” for the Trump administration’s ongoing “propaganda war against China”. </p>
<p>Bevins also argues that the American domination of the internet has contributed to unrealistic views about the nature of social institutions, power and social change. The techno-utopianism that has accompanied its rise, the US-centric culture and ideas that circulate on oligarch-owned social media platforms, and “online communities born in the alter-globalisation era”, such as <a href="https://indymedia.org/">Indymedia</a> and <a href="https://www.adbusters.org/about-us">Adbusters</a>, played an “outsize role” in the mass protest decade. </p>
<p>Protesters’ ideas about what was possible and how to proceed were shaped by their immersion in this media landscape. Reflecting in retrospect on the prominent use of material from The Hunger Games, V for Vendetta and Star Wars, a Hong Kong activist said: “I think it is … a little sad, and definitely very unfortunate, that we got so many of our ideas from pop culture.”</p>
<p>The simplistic faith of “liberal techno-optimists” that the internet and social media are intrinsically progressive has proved unfounded, as has the belief that “the internet would make the world more like the United States”. </p>
<p>No protest action or technology is intrinsically progressive. As Bevins points out, is has become clear in recent years that the protesters’ “repertoire” of tools and tactics can be used at least as effectively by right-wing demagogues and disinformation outfits. The shock of Trumpian politics was accompanied by a sobering realisation that “the internet was something that could be used by malevolent foreign powers to undermine the American project”. </p>
<p>Digital communication, Bevins observes, has facilitated “the existence of big protests that come together very quickly – so quickly, perhaps, that no one knows each other, people are trying to realize contradictory goals, and after the initial energy fades, nothing remains”. In a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTRkIY6NQhA">recent interview</a>, he paraphrases one Free Fare Movement interviewee reflecting on how events unfolded in Brazil: “all we wanted to do for eight years was to cause a popular uprising; and then we did, and it was awful”. </p>
<p>Throughout If We Burn, Bevins shows that “movements that cannot speak for themselves will be spoken for”. As an Egyptian activist reflects: “we thought representation was elitism, but actually it is the essence of democracy”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Pollard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Throughout If We Burn, Vincent Bevins shows that “movements that cannot speak for themselves will be spoken for”.Christopher Pollard, Tutor in Sociology and Philosophy, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2086472023-07-17T12:26:53Z2023-07-17T12:26:53ZWhat the US can learn from affirmative action at universities in Brazil<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537512/original/file-20230714-20840-9sb46u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C31%2C5252%2C3491&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Affirmative action for college students in Brazil led to better employment prospects for those who benefited from the policy.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/brazilian-students-royalty-free-image/623768390?phrase=brazil+college+&adppopup=true">Cesar Okada via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Brazil <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/31/world/americas/brazil-enacts-affirmative-action-law-for-universities.html">implemented affirmative action</a> at its federal universities in 2012, the policy prompted a public debate that largely resembles the debate over affirmative action in the United States.</p>
<p>Brazil’s affirmative action policy requires every federal university to reserve at least half of all seats for students from certain groups. Out of that half, about half of the seats go solely to Black, mixed and Indigenous Brazilians. The other half go to low-income public-school students. Other universities are free to set their admissions policies. </p>
<p>Like many Americans, some Brazilians worried that affirmative action would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/31/world/americas/brazil-enacts-affirmative-action-law-for-universities.html">reduce the quality of education in public universities</a>. Some were concerned that only <a href="https://www.scielo.br/j/op/a/QyKvRBhmPkKc5f8v7LHFWbg/?lang=pt">the more privileged members in the targeted groups would benefit</a> and that affirmative action wasn’t worth it. Others doubted that beneficiaries could keep up academically and feared that their <a href="https://ojs.ufgd.edu.br/index.php/movimentacao/article/viewFile/5113/3957">peers would suffer</a> as a result.</p>
<p>As researchers who study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ma37cqEAAAAJ&hl=en">college admissions</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=V6FhDu4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">economics</a> and the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AfGX7nYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">equity of social interventions and policies</a>, we took a critical look at the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12564">effects of affirmative action in Brazil</a>. To do this, we examined prior research, as well as the effects of affirmative action on student learning and future earnings. In America, these outcomes are difficult to study because, prior to the use of race being banned in college admissions, schools implemented affirmative action as they saw fit. In Brazil, all federal universities had to implement affirmative action the same way.</p>
<h2>Unfounded fears</h2>
<p>Brazilian federal universities are some of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-has-tuition-free-college-but-it-only-serves-a-portion-of-its-citizens-2015-6">best in the country</a>. Even more importantly, they are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-has-tuition-free-college-but-it-only-serves-a-portion-of-its-citizens-2015-6">tuition-free</a>. They are the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2015/04/brazil-where-free-universities-largely-serve-the-wealthy/389997/">preferred universities</a> for most high school students and their families. Historically, mostly well-off students attended these universities.</p>
<p>Through our research, we concluded not only that Brazilians’ fears about affirmative action lowering the quality of the nation’s universities were largely unwarranted, but also that across most measures the policy has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12564">proved to be quite beneficial</a>. </p>
<p>Specifically, we found that:</p>
<p>• Those admitted to universities via affirmative action performed quite well in their studies. By the time they graduated, their grade-point averages were not much different from the GPAs of other students. In the most selective majors, the disparities in GPAs that existed when students began their studies <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/joes.12564">had largely disappeared by graduation</a>. </p>
<p>• Students admitted through affirmative action <a href="https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.47.3.754">did not hamper the learning of their peers</a>. Sometimes, they outperformed peers who entered college the regular way without affirmative action. This is a reminder that traditional admissions processes may not be as meritocratic as some people may think.</p>
<p>• Students admitted via affirmative action were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.06.017">7% more likely</a> to work as managers or directors later in their careers than if the policy were not in effect. Such students also end up with many more years of education than they would otherwise. This means that many of these students would not pursue a higher education degree at all if these places were not reserved for them.</p>
<h2>Implications for the United States</h2>
<p>As elite colleges and universities in the U.S. grapple with how to achieve diversity after the Supreme Court banned the use of race in college admissions, we believe our findings bear particular relevance.</p>
<p>Some Americans argue that schools can achieve diversity <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104839">through race-neutral policies</a>. At least in the Brazilian context, we found that race-neutral policies were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12564">ineffective for achieving racial diversity</a>.</p>
<p>We found that race-targeted policies were associated with a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2019.101931">significant increase in Black students</a>, whereas race-neutral policies didn’t affect the percentage of Black, mixed and Indigenous Brazilian students in college. Part of the reason is because a large share of candidates, white and nonwhite, compete under income-based quotas. Thus, income-based quotas do not effect the racial composition of university students because these quotas benefit students from all racial backgrounds.</p>
<p>Race-based affirmative action seems necessary to achieve racial diversity, according to the Brazilian evidence. This is consistent with at least one other study from the U.S., where race-neutral policies have been shown to be <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20161290">less effective than those explicitly considering race</a>. </p>
<p>By almost every measure studied, affirmative action in Brazil worked to generate a more diverse student body without reducing the quality of education. Even so, the inequality in Brazil’s higher education system remains. </p>
<p>In 2000, out of the 853,000 students enrolled in tuition-free public universities, around 596,000 were white and 239,000 were Black. By 2010, the system had expanded to 1,788,000 places, <a href="https://www.scielo.br/j/cp/a/tttVNfkLTtGXpmB8JDFcdnD/?lang=pt#ModalFigf4">with white students numbering 1,063,000 and Black students 689,000</a>. Brazil’s congress successfully made affirmative action mandatory in part because of the large impact of the many-but-scattered initiatives by public universities in the 2000s. </p>
<p>As the U.S. grapples with issues of equity and access to higher education, Brazil’s experience imparts valuable lessons. There, race-based affirmative action policies promote diversity and the values of equal opportunity that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01339-1">American universities like to espouse</a>. Race-based affirmative action can effectively increase enrollment of underrepresented minorities without compromising academic performance. This is something that income-based quotas may not be able to accomplish. Further, the Brazilian experience shows that these policies do not negatively impact other students.</p>
<p>Now that the U.S. courts have banned the use of race in college admissions, college and university leaders must find and adopt new ways to make their campuses more diverse. How to achieve that may be a challenge, but it seems to remain a worthwhile pursuit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208647/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Research has found that race-neutral policies were not enough to achieve diversity in Brazil’s higher education system. Three scholars probe what that means for the United States.Neil Lewis Jr., Associate Professor of Communication and Social Behavior, Cornell UniversityInácio Bó, Associate Professor of Economics, University of MacauRodrigo Zeidan, Professor of Practice, NYU Shanghai and Fundação Dom Cabral, NYU ShanghaiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1975302023-01-11T19:09:30Z2023-01-11T19:09:30ZWhat now for Brazil? President Lula strengthened, but Bolsonaro supporters won’t go quietly<p>On Sunday January 8, radical supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro invaded and vandalised buildings that house Brazil’s congress, supreme court and presidential palace.</p>
<p>Since then, over 1,500 people have been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-investigates-who-led-anti-democratic-riots-capital-2023-01-09/">detained</a>. </p>
<p>The Governor of the Federal District, legally responsible for guaranteeing order in Brasilia and protecting the executive government’s buildings, has been temporarily <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-09/brazil-justice-orders-federal-district-governor-removed-from-job?leadSource=uverify%20wall">ousted</a> from his position. Also, the governor’s former <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64228530">military police commander has been arrested</a>.</p>
<p>In this very initial post-riot moment, some early assessments can be drawn on the repercussions for current President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva and for Bolsonaro supporters. Firstly, that Lula seems to be paradoxically strengthened from this. </p>
<p>And secondly, while there has been little support for the riots from the general public, <em>Bolsonaristas</em> are far from being a weak group.</p>
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<h2>What now for Lula’s presidency?</h2>
<p>The attacks in Brasilia caused extensive material damage. However, they didn’t succeed in ousting Lula, or even in weakening his leadership.</p>
<p>Quite the opposite – Lula seems to be the one to have gained the most political capital in the immediate aftermath.</p>
<p>Even though he became president just over a week ago, this is his third time in the position. Regardless of whether one supports him or not, he has unparalleled experience in how to portray a position of power and confidence. He’s also known as an incredibly skilled politician with a particular ability to build political bridges. </p>
<p>A day after the attacks, Lula convened a meeting in Brasilia attended by <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/world/americas/2023/01/10/brazils-lula-says-coup-bid-will-fail-as-he-meets-countrys-governors/">all of Brazil’s 27 governors</a>, including some hardcore Bolsonaro supporters, along with members of the Supreme Court and powerful members of the Senate and the lower house. </p>
<p>He said the violent acts were unacceptable and those involved should be judged and punished under the law. The meeting finished with all of them walking – many hand-in-hand – from the presidential palace across to the Supreme Court (some 400 meters away) so everyone could witness the destruction first-hand.</p>
<p>Even if this was “just” a photo-op, it was a visible demonstration of institutional unity by members and leaders of the executive, legislative, and judiciary powers and of the federation.</p>
<p>Though how long this spirit will stay in place is anyone’s guess – this is politics, after all.</p>
<h2>What now for Bolsonaro supporters?</h2>
<p>This episode seems to have weakened <em>Bolsonaristas</em>, at least temporarily. But to dismiss or minimise their ongoing capacity to organise other violent events in the future would be not just wrong but dangerous. Toppling a democratic regime might be a very high bar to reach, but generating chaos and fear might be on the agenda for the next four years.</p>
<p>It’s important to note Bolsonaro supporters are not a homogenous group. Some are primarily against Lula or his party (the Workers’ Party), and supported Bolsonaro’s presidential bid so Lula wouldn’t win. Others have accepted Bolsonaro’s loss, even if painfully, but have carried on with their lives.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-iconic-football-shirt-was-a-symbol-of-bolsonaro-heres-how-the-world-cup-is-changing-that-195405">Brazil's iconic football shirt was a symbol of Bolsonaro – here's how the World Cup is changing that</a>
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<p>Neither of these groups were the ones vandalising public buildings or <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20230109-brazil-riots-raise-questions-of-efficiency-and-loyalty-of-security-forces">sleeping in tents outside of army walls</a> for weeks. So far, the impression is these more “moderate” supporters do not support what took place in Brasilia.</p>
<p>An analysis of over two million social media posts while the riots were happening showed <a href="https://www.metropoles.com/brasil/levantamento-mostra-que-90-das-redes-sociais-reprova-atos-terroristas">90% of the public’s comments were negative</a> towards the riots, mostly expressing sadness, fear and disgust. </p>
<p>So, it’s likely Bolsonaro supporters who defend the attacks on the capital are a relatively small group. Yet, they share a hardcore and radical view of Brazil.</p>
<p>Many of them are convinced Brazil needs to be “saved from communism”. The rioters see themselves as “true patriots”, the ones responsible for safeguarding God and family against the “red menace”. This Christmas, some <a href="https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/politica/2022/12/5056024-papai-noel-sofre-ataque-na-internet-apos-rumores-sobre-seu-voto.html">Bolsonaro supporters</a> and businesses even took issue with Santa Claus wearing red, given the association between the colour red and communism.</p>
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<p>Right now, only a handful of political figures are openly supporting the rioters. But some members of the armed forces and the police are <a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-under-attack-in-brazil-5-questions-about-the-storming-of-congress-and-the-role-of-the-military-197396">backing the riots</a>. It’s not clear exactly how many police are in this camp or how willing they are to risk their jobs and support anti-democratic actions.</p>
<p>It’s also not yet clear whether this was the apex of violent attempts to oust Lula, or the beginning of what’s yet to come. The country is still rife with polarisation. </p>
<p>The challenge now in Brazil is to recreate the country’s political centre-right, which essentially evaporated in the last two elections, engulfed under Bolsonaro’s clout with the far-right. A centre-right that defends democratic values wouldn’t eliminate far-right radicals, but it would hopefully help in making them a fringe group.</p>
<p>Still, this is not a short term solution – if it is even a solution at all. Right now, there’s too much political tension in the air and any long-term assessments are unwise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197530/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah Barros Leal Farias does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rather than weaken or oust Lula, the riots seem to have paradoxically strengthened the president politically.Deborah Barros Leal Farias, Senior lecturer, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/780232017-05-26T01:25:11Z2017-05-26T01:25:11ZBrazil plunges once more into political crisis, jeopardizing economic recovery<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171041/original/file-20170525-23251-14sbefp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Demonstrations demanding Temer's removal from office have been growing. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Eraldo Peres</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Brazil’s <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/brazils-corruption-scandal-brings-outsider-politicians">massive corruption scandal</a> – which has brought down dozens of politicians and business leaders – has ensnared its latest victim: President Michel Temer, who got the job after <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37237513">his predecessor was impeached</a>. </p>
<p>Allegations that Temer approved a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e38a68f8-3b7a-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23">bribe to a corporate executive</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/qanda-brazils-latest-presidential-corruption-scandal-78144">triggered demands</a> that he resign or be impeached as well. He has refused, even as protests <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/24/world/americas/brazil-michel-temer-brasilia-protests.html">have escalated and turned violent</a>.</p>
<p>The ensuing crisis threatens to derail a fragile economic recovery and the reforms <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-71807">Brazil</a> needs to get back on its feet. </p>
<p>But once again, a political scandal at the very top is getting in the way. The irony is that Temer’s alleged misdeeds threaten to undermine the economic upturn his own government launched. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171040/original/file-20170525-23267-1o9brd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Temer continues to profess his innocence and resist demands that he go.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Ricardo Botelho</span></span>
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<h2>Temer takes charge</h2>
<p>Believe it or not, Temer only just completed his first year in office. </p>
<p>Previously Dilma Rousseff’s vice president, <a href="https://theconversation.com/dilma-rousseff-two-views-of-democracy-and-the-battle-for-brazils-future-63668">he assumed her duties</a> as the interim head of state in May 2016 after she was suspended and faced an impeachment trial in the Senate. He officially became president in August, when she was convicted and removed from office – though she was never directly linked to the the bribery and kickback scandal engulfing Brazil.</p>
<p>While the corruption scandal swirled around his government, Temer had never before been personally implicated. This changed on May 17, when a <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/operacao-usada-por-temer-como-motivo-para-receber-dono-da-jbs-so-ocorreu-10-dias-apos-encontro-21373492">Brazilian newspaper</a> reported on a secretly recorded conversation in which the president is <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/18/americas/brazil-temer-bribery-allegations/">heard encouraging the CEO of JBS</a> – the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-meatpackers-suffer-as-government-struggles-to-reopen-export-markets-1490293033">world’s biggest meat producer</a> – to provide hush money to a former lawmaker who’s currently in jail. Temer promised in return to help resolve a problem JBS had in Congress.</p>
<h2>Lifting up a sinking ship</h2>
<p>Given the cloud over Temer, even if he were able to serve out the remaining 18 months of his term – which appears increasingly unlikely – his ability to govern effectively and push through the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-23/brazil-downsizes-economic-reform-agenda-to-post-crisis-reality">tough economic reforms needed</a> to sustain the incipient recovery is doubtful. </p>
<p>Following <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-brazil-go-from-rising-bric-to-sinking-ship-57029">nearly a decade of sustained expansion</a>, Brazil’s growth <a href="http://www.latam.ufl.edu/media/latamufledu/labe/LABER-2016.pdf">began to lose steam</a> in 2011. In both 2015 and 2016, GDP contracted by over 3.5 percent. Inflation ballooned to nearly 11 percent in 2015.</p>
<p>The central bank raised interest rates in an effort to tame inflation, public debt and the fiscal deficit rose, unemployment and poverty grew – eroding the social gains of the previous decade – and millions of Brazilians began falling out of the middle class.</p>
<p>Temer, upon inheriting an economy in deep recession, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/michel-temer-vows-to-spend-political-capital-on-reforming-brazil">promised to revive it</a>. </p>
<p>His prescription – a combination of austerity and market-friendly reforms – <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-brazil-tilts-rightward-lulas-leftist-legacy-of-lifting-the-poor-is-at-risk-65939">was a break with the left-leaning policies</a> of his Workers’ Party (PT) predecessors, including Rousseff. His initial Cabinet – all male, all white – also stood in stark contrast to the inclusive PT governments.</p>
<p>The business community and <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/stock-market">financial markets</a> welcomed Temer’s stewardship of the economy. The Bovespa stock market and real currency <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/brazil-s-real-advances-as-president-temer-vows-to-push-reforms">made big gains</a> on his assuming office. And he took significant steps to deal with the deficit. He <a href="http://www.latam.ufl.edu/media/latamufledu/labe/UF-LAS-Laber-030817.pdf">obtained congressional passage</a> of a constitutional amendment to cap increases in public spending at the rate of inflation for 20 years, and the government set up a new privatization program.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-20/brazil-emerging-from-its-worst-recession-says-finance-minister">economic situation improved</a>. Inflation fell, allowing the central bank to reduce borrowing costs, and foreign investment began to return. Most importantly, the economy <a href="http://marketrealist.com/2017/04/why-imf-slashed-brazils-economic-growth-outlook-in-2017/">was forecast to grow again</a>, weakly in 2017 but picking up in subsequent years. Unemployment had stopped climbing. </p>
<p>When I was in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo in March, Brazilians told me that their country seemed to be finally coming out of its economic malaise. I wished them well but was skeptical given the unresolved political environment.</p>
<h2>Unfinished business</h2>
<p>Indeed, there is much unfinished business in reforming Brazil’s economy. </p>
<p>For example, labor markets are very rigid, making it hard for companies to hire and fire, and the generous pension system is fiscally unsustainable. Winning passage of such reforms was always going to be difficult, but Temer’s growing unpopularity makes it even harder. </p>
<p>Despite his success in reigniting the <a href="http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/brazil">economy</a>, Temer’s standing in the polls has been abysmal, with <a href="http://www.euronews.c/2017/03/31/brazil-temers-popularity-slides-further-poll">just 10 percent rating his government</a> as “great” or “good.” And that was before the current crisis. </p>
<p>The revelations linking Temer personally to corruption allegations have dealt a fatal blow to prospects for sustaining the recovery and pursuing more reforms. </p>
<p>Temer continues to insist he will not resign, but the opposition is increasingly vocal. Should Temer vacate the presidency by resigning or impeachment, Congress would elect a replacement to serve until January 2019. </p>
<p>Who will take over at that point is very much up in the air. Given the bankruptcy of the traditional political class and economic elite, the country has a serious leadership vacuum. Two of the most recent presidents are under active criminal investigation as are members of Congress, cabinet ministers and business executives. Others are already convicted and serving time. </p>
<p>This is bad news for Brazilians, who deserve stable leadership, free of corruption and dedicated to strengthening the economy and improving their lives. The present turmoil is not conducive to such a favorable outcome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78023/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry L. McCoy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Brazil’s president, who came to power after his ex-boss was impeached, now finds himself embroiled in corruption charges, which threaten to derail the economic recovery he has championed.Terry L. McCoy, Professor Emeritus of Latin American Studies and Political Science, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/719682017-02-03T02:10:39Z2017-02-03T02:10:39ZWhy Brazil is winning its fight against corruption<p>Last month, the respected Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Teori Zavascki died in a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/world/americas/brazil-judge-zavascki-petrobras-investigation-killed-plane-crash.html?_r=0">plane crash</a>. He was overseeing the largest corruption investigation in the country’s history.</p>
<p>Even if his recently selected successor, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38839301">Edson Fachin</a>, rises to the occasion, Zavascki’s death remains a tragic loss and a blow to Brazil’s fight against corruption. Especially since it comes on the heels of lawmakers <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/04/world/americas/thousands-in-brazil-protest-gutting-of-anticorruption-measures.html">torpedoing</a> in late 2016 a widely popular effort to make it easier for prosecutors and judges to clean up government.</p>
<p>While these events make it easy to despair, the reality reveals much more reason for hope. In our 2015 book “<a href="http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/greed-corruption-and-the-modern-state">Greed, Corruption and the Modern State</a>,” we argue that societies must push back against the influence of powerful economic actors in order to safeguard the public interest. The network of Brazilians exposing, prosecuting and sentencing the corrupt politicians swimming in this mar de lama, or sea of mud, embodies that ideal. However, their effort would benefit from legal reforms that make it easier to fight corruption. </p>
<h2>From scandal to scandal</h2>
<p>Brazilians have long had to accept corruption scandals as a chronic part of their government. Graft was present under <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01436599208420302">military rule</a>, despite what those hoping for the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38010060">return of authoritarianism</a> seem to believe. But corruption scandals have also plagued every <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4490507?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">presidential administration</a> since civil order was reestablished in 1985.</p>
<p>Even the administration of the popular Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, who governed Brazil during a period of rising prosperity from 2003 to 2010, coincided with several corruption scandals. They include <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/29/AR2006092900891.html">Caixa Dois</a>, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3532239.stm">Bingos</a> and, most memorably, <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/11/economist-explains-14">Mensalão</a>, a scheme in which coalition parties <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/andersonantunes/2013/11/28/the-cost-of-corruption-in-brazil-could-be-up-to-53-billion-just-this-year-alone/#622c59d7610b">accepted more than US$40 million</a> in clandestine payments to support Lula’s Workers Party (also known as the PT). </p>
<p>Yet even as the Supreme Court investigated the Mensalão case, the PT still won two presidential elections – one that reelected Lula and another won by Dilma Rousseff in 2010.</p>
<p>Rousseff’s administration began on a hopeful note for those battling corruption. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/americas/in-her-first-year-brazil-president-dilma-rousseff-cleans-house/2011/12/12/gIQAOMnStO_story.html?utm_term=.1d29e4f5b2dc">She fired</a> five ministers linked to bribery, kickbacks and influence peddling and helped enact a major government <a href="http://www.freedominfo.org/regions/latin-america/brazil/">transparency law</a>. </p>
<p>But within a few years, the tide – and public support – turned against her as Brazil’s <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/04/economic-backgrounder">economic outlook</a> worsened and crowds protested continuing corruption and the billions that were spent on new <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/21/brazil-police-crowds-rio-protest">stadiums</a> for the 2014 World Cup.</p>
<p>As a result, the country soured on her at the same time that Brazil’s largest corruption scandal, known as Lava Jato, began to unfold. That scheme involved construction companies colluding with employees of the state-owned oil company <a href="http://www.coha.org/understanding-the-petrobras-scandal/">Petrobras</a> to win inflated contracts. Petrobras employees <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-05-08/brazil-s-massive-corruption-scandal-has-bitterness-replacing-hope">took bribes</a>, while politicians got <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/business/international/effects-of-petrobras-scandal-leave-brazilians-lamenting-a-lost-dream.html">kickbacks</a> as personal gifts or campaign donations. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Rousseff was accused of <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36028247">spending public funds without congressional authorization</a> and was impeached in August, shortly after the 2016 Olympics. <a href="http://www.semana.com/mundo/articulo/destitucion-de-dilma-roussef-en-medio-de-corrupcion-y-clientelismo/492256">Although Rousseff herself was not accused of corruption, some argue that</a> she was essentially used as a scapegoat.</p>
<h2>Who’s changing Brazil</h2>
<p>But none of the bribes and kickbacks would be known today if the federal prosecutors had not doggedly investigated the Petrobras scheme allowing the judicial branch to take on the elite. </p>
<p>Brazilians themselves and an emboldened media also deserve credit for the gradual end of impunity. In the past three years, the public took to the streets on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/21/brazil-police-crowds-rio-protest">multiple</a> <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-protests-idUSKBN13T0O1">occasions</a> to protest waste and corruption. Local media coverage of the scandals was “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/05/05/corruption-is-not-new-to-brazil-so-why-is-it-threatening-the-presidency-now/?utm_term=.890a719ed8f3">scathing and unrelenting</a>.”</p>
<p>Authorities have made nearly <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2ed33462-2d6b-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc#axzz4CERGbCFo">200 arrests</a>, and the lower courts have convicted over 80 people, including the ex-CEO of Odebrecht, Latin America’s largest construction group, which is also <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/odebrecht-and-braskem-plead-guilty-and-agree-pay-least-35-billion-global-penalties-resolve">on the hook</a> for at least $3.5 billion in fines for bribing government officials. The Supreme Court, which is responsible for trying politicians, is processing over 100 <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/19/brazil-supreme-court-corruption-case-teori-zavascki-dies-plane-crash?CMP=share_btn_link.">additional cases</a>. </p>
<h2>10 measures</h2>
<p>Despite their successes, Brazil’s prosecutors and judges operate in a challenging legal and institutional environment that makes it difficult to achieve decisive results.</p>
<p>To remedy these problems, prosecutors have crafted the reform statute known as <a href="http://www.dezmedidas.mpf.mp.br/">10 Measures against Corruption</a>, presented to Congress last year as a public initiative endorsed by over <a href="http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/politica/noticia/2016-12/rodrigo-janot-defends-10-anti-corruption-ballot-measures">two million</a> Brazilians.</p>
<p>The bill’s threat to vested interests provoked powerful opposition in the legislature, and lawmakers quietly weakened it by adding an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/world/americas/brazil-corruption.html">amendment</a> to undermine the effectiveness of prosecutors and judges. An effort by the president of the Senate, Renan Calheiros, to <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-corruption-idUSKBN13Q59F">rush</a> the weakened bill through failed. And the Supreme Court seemingly fired back by forcing Calheiros to <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/renan-calheiros-ordered-removed-from-senate-presidency-by-brazil-supreme-court-judge-1480978526">relinquish</a> the presidency while he faces corruption charges of his own.</p>
<p>The failure to pass a strong reform bill, coming on top of the massive bribery and bid-rigging revealed by the Petrobras scandal, has shaken the country’s political system. The dramatic cases against officials and private parties have also meant the public believes that corruption is getting worse.</p>
<p>Paradoxically, however, the flood of recent cases indicate to us that conditions are improving. They show that elements of the country’s system of accountability are working.</p>
<h2>Reforming the system</h2>
<p>But to consolidate these past gains, important reforms are necessary. </p>
<p>The 10 Measures against Corruption ought to be a starting point for more fundamental reforms. <a href="http://combateacorrupcao.mpf.mp.br/10-medidas/docs/executive_summary_english_version.pdf">This bill</a> aims to eliminate some of the practices at the heart of the Petrobras scandal, such as illegal campaign contributions to politicians who, if elected, are expected to reciprocate by awarding government contracts. The bill <a href="http://fcpamericas.com/english/brazil/ten-measures-proposed-brazilian-federal-prosecution-service-fight-corruption-part-i/">also</a> <a href="http://fcpamericas.com/english/brazil/ten-measures-proposed-brazilian-federal-prosecution-service-fight-corruption-part-ii/">seeks</a> to speed up criminal proceedings, ensure the confidentiality of whistleblowers, extend the statute of limitations and enhance asset confiscation capabilities. </p>
<p>However, prosecutorial zeal has also led to controversial tactics that have raised <a href="https://globalanticorruptionblog.com/2016/03/10/guest-post-brazil-must-fight-corruption-but-preserve-the-rule-of-law/">concerns</a> about due process. We, for example, question the use of pretrial detention absent clear evidence of flight risk. Others <a href="http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/opiniao/2016/10/1821713-desvendando-moro.shtml">question</a> the high proportion of cases targeting the PT and other left-leaning political parties. While these concerns need to be addressed, we believe prosecutors and judges are proceeding as best as they can under challenging conditions.</p>
<p>The next, more difficult step should be structural reform of the political system. Brazil has over two dozen parties that produce a chaotic legislature in which lawmakers compete for payoffs in return for votes. As evidenced by Mensalão, presidents have used questionable tactics in order to <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/614517/summary">sustain</a> governing coalitions. Political corruption might seem the inevitable result of Brazil’s constitutional structure. </p>
<p>Shifting to a parliamentary system, with a prime minister from the winning coalition, would solve some problems, but seems presently unrealistic. Alternately, requiring a higher proportion of the popular vote before a party can participate in the legislature would be a less draconian reform.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Controlling corruption in Brazil is possible, but the system requires new rules to make politicians more accountable in the country and to reduce the incentives for corrupt payoffs. Reformers can help by leveraging the political crisis generated by the Petrobras scandal. </p>
<p>For the sake of their country, and to honor Zavascki’s memory, the Congress should embrace this critical moment in history and enact legislation that may finally break with the cycle of corruption for the good of Brazilian democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71968/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul F. Lagunes receives funding from the International Growth Center. He is a Visiting Scholar at the Inter-American Development Bank.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Rose-Ackerman is affiliated with Transparency International-USA.</span></em></p>By exposing, prosecuting and sentencing Brazil’s corrupt politicians, prosecutors, judges and citizens are draining the swamp that has overwhelmed the country for so long.Paul F. Lagunes, Assistant Professor of International and Public Affairs, Columbia UniversitySusan Rose-Ackerman, Henry R. Luce Professor of Jurisprudence (Law and Political Science), Yale UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/636202016-08-06T09:21:50Z2016-08-06T09:21:50ZRio’s green Olympic Games get underway with low-budget, high-spirited opening ceremony<p>That the opening ceremony of the 2016 Olympic Games went without a hitch would have been a good enough result for many. There had been real fears that the ceremony would be overshadowed by <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/olympics/rio-2016-olympic-protesters-tear-gas-police-brazil-a7175271.html">political protests</a>, <a href="http://time.com/4438690/rio-2016-olympics-terrorism-security/">security threats</a> or <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/athletics/rio-olympics-branded-worst-ever-8543702">crumbling infrastructure</a>. But against the odds, Rio managed to put on a creative, passionate performance, at just <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2016/08/05/olympics-opening-ceremony-for-rio-2016-live/">a tenth of the cost</a> of the London 2012 extravaganza. </p>
<p>In 2009, when Brazil was confirmed as host of the 2016 Summer Olympics, it was only just beginning to yield soft power; gaining favour on the international stage, based more on its attractions and persuasive abilities than on military interventions and sanctions (hard power). Within three years, Monocle magazine <a href="https://monocle.com/monocolumn/business/the-sun-s-shining-on-brand-brazil/">declared that</a> “the sun is shining on brand Brazil”. </p>
<p>But today, the picture is quite different: Brazil is in the grips of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-brazil-go-from-rising-bric-to-sinking-ship-57029">its worst recession</a> in 25 years, the elected president Dilma Rousseff has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-dilma-rousseff-impeached-brazil-is-set-for-years-of-political-turmoil-57689">removed from power</a> by way of an ongoing impeachment process which has divided the nation and the international media’s <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/02/nbc-defends-the-rio-olympics-shit-show.html">criticisms of Olympic preparations</a> have been relentless. </p>
<h2>Damage limitation</h2>
<p>With a tight budget and a notable absence of visiting heads of state, there were doubts as to whether Rio could gain the positive international exposure, and the domestic feel-good moment, that the opening ceremonies in Beijing and London brought to their host countries. As it turns out, those doubts were unfounded. </p>
<p>The programme was choreographed to leave no space for Olympic sceptics and anti-government supporters in the audience, or on stage, to make their feelings known. Brazil’s incredibly vainglorious national anthem was rendered politically neutral, by being played on acoustic guitar and sung by the much-loved and sweet-sounding samba composer Paulinho da Viola. </p>
<p>The increasingly <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-shoots-for-olympian-heights-at-a-time-of-political-lows-62862">unpopular interim president Michel Temer</a> hardly appeared on screen and spoke only for a matter of seconds to declare the ceremony open. He elicited fewer boos from the crowd than ousted president Rousseff had to bear at the opening of the World Cup in 2014.</p>
<h2>The green games</h2>
<p>The show itself began with a relatively politically inoffensive romp through Brazilian history, with eye-catching choreography and visual effects in keeping with the “creativity on a shoe-string” narrative touted by the organisers. There were a few sparkling musical interludes: the iconic international hit <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJkxFhFRFDA">The Girl from Ipanema</a> was performed by the composer Tom Jobim’s grandson, and acted out by supermodel Gisele Bündchen. </p>
<p>The more prosaic Brazilian funk hit <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5FO0buG_eo">Eu Só Quero Ser Feliz</a> (I just want to be happy), ushered in the always tedious team parade – but not before the Olympic hosts shared a few home truths with the world. </p>
<p>Despite the relentless criticism of Rio’s failure to clean up the notoriously filthy Guanabara Bay, and despite the admittedly under-reported <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/nov/25/brazils-mining-tragedy-dam-preventable-disaster-samarco-vale-bhp-billiton">environmental disaster</a> of epic proportion that took place in the mining region of Mariana only nine months ago, the organisers pulled off a coup of their own, by using the ceremony – and, by extension, the games themselves – to rebrand Brazil as green. </p>
<p>In a sudden change in tempo and mood, the dangers of global warming were depicted in images and numbers. It was a powerful illustration, not only of the impacts of climate change and the urgent need to do something about it, but also of Brazil’s determination to contribute to debates of international significance. </p>
<p>From the athletes planting seeds that will later be used to build a large park in Rio’s suburbs, to the deliberately low key and environmentally friendly (but still visually stunning) Olympic flame and cauldron, the ceremony was incomparably more convincing in its sustainability message than the earnest, or even cringe-worthy, opening ceremony of the 2014 World Cup in São Paulo.</p>
<h2>No Pelé?</h2>
<p>Many hearts will have sunk when Pelé pulled out hours before the ceremony started due to ill health. Although “the King” never competed in any Olympic Games, the IOC named him <a href="http://www.worldathletes.com/sports_biographies/Pele.htm">Athlete of the Century</a> in 1999. And given that he’s also still the most recognised Brazilian on earth, he’s one of the country’s key soft-power assets. </p>
<p>But in a surprise and incredibly moving twist, the cauldron was lit by Brazilian Olympic unsung hero <a href="http://qz.com/752356/the-inspiring-reason-olympic-marathoner-vanderlei-cordeiro-de-lima-lit-the-olympic-cauldron/">Vanderlei Cordeiro de Lima</a>. Marathon runner Vanderlei was attacked by a deranged spectator at the Athens Olympics in 2004, dropping from first place to finish with the bronze medal. His gracious sportsmanship in freak defeat was acknowledged at the time by the IOC, and again last night, in what was a particularly poignant moment of the ceremony.</p>
<p>And just as we thought that was our lot in this modest but effective ceremony, out come the samba schools (drummers and dancers). Off went the fireworks, as Brazil confirmed once again that it knows how to throw a good party – even on a shoestring budget, in times of adversity. Now, the nation must convince the international press to portray the passion, creativity and meaningful political commentary of the ceremony, rather than rehashing old – if painfully true – tales of woe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63620/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Dennison receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) as Primary Investigator of the international research network Soft Power, Cinema and the BRICS.</span></em></p>Against the odds, Rio scores soft-power points with memorable show at Maracanã stadium.Stephanie Dennison, Professor in Brazilian Studies, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/631912016-08-04T20:16:02Z2016-08-04T20:16:02ZIn no mood for games: the pale Olympic flame of Rio 2016<p>The Olympic flame has been making its way around Brazilian cities in the last few weeks, sponsored by the country’s major media group, its biggest private bank, a Japanese automaker and the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-28/coke-nissan-and-bradesco-to-sponsor-rio-s-olympic-torch-relay">world’s most famous soda company</a>. </p>
<p>As it travelled around the country, a peculiar aspect of a usually excited population attracted more attention than the torch itself: there were countless attempts to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36643346">quench the flame</a> – a symbol representing the Olympic spirit.</p>
<p>Though it’s neither unprecedented – similar acts have taken place in other host nations – nor a demonstration of proverbial Brazilian iconoclasm, these protests must be understood in the context of the growing global reaction to both the way these mega-events are organised and the entities promoting them (think International Olympic Committee and FIFA).</p>
<p>The business of sport is an increasingly profitable enterprise that sets up around big sums of money coming from advertising and the sale of broadcasting rights – or both. These organisations’ humongous economic power translates to ominous political clout. And the resulting leverage allows them to meddle in the internal affairs of host countries and cities, and even to tackle and replace national legislation, thereby removing legal hurdles to their events. </p>
<h2>An unhappy citizenry</h2>
<p>Throughout 2013 and 2014, civil society unrest based on the rejection of mega sports events figured among top general claims during massive street demonstrations in Brazil. It wasn’t hard to spot complaints about FIFA’s and the International Olympic Committee’s (IOC) interference in domestic affairs, or about the large amounts of public money used to host the World Cup and the Olympic Games.</p>
<p>Similar discontent appeared in other parts of the world. The citizens of Vienna, Austria, recently <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/olympics-vienna-idUSL3N0C42D720130312">expressed opposition</a> to the city’s candidacy for hosting the 2028 Olympic Games in a referendum. They assessed that the potential benefits would not compensate the high cost of the event, driven by the IOC’s demands. </p>
<p>Similarly, the Swedish parliament rejected the idea of Stockholm becoming a candidate to host the 2022 Olympic Games. This was based on the assessment that the city had more burning issues on which to focus, especially as eventual financial losses would have to be covered by public funding.</p>
<p>Such negative feedback from the citizens of democratic countries has led the two biggest international sporting entities to give preference to not-so-open countries, such as China, Russia or Qatar, to host their events. In these places, state control restricts expressions of civil society distress, while enabling legal changes without major parliamentary resistance. </p>
<p>And it seems so-called “emerging markets”, such as Brazil, which are eager to portray progress, can also make use of their more <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-olympics-petrobras-exclusive-idUSKBN0TD1XO20151125">corruption-prone</a> institutions to provide less contentious ground for such mega events. </p>
<p>In the case of the Rio Olympics, it seems that so far all the effort has thrilled no one but certain journalists, artists and sports commentators from television channels that belong to the major national media oligopoly. Amid an intense political and economic crisis, the population has generally been far from enthusiastic about the Games, despite sponsors’ promotional efforts.</p>
<h2>Crisis upon crisis</h2>
<p>In Rio de Janeiro, the national crisis overlaps state bankruptcy. The promised “Olympic legacy” has not only been questioned but viewed suspiciously by vast sectors of society. </p>
<p>Long years of never-ending public works have worsened the already chaotic <em>carioca</em> traffic. Promises of alternatives for public transportation have ended up in barely finished or partially delivered infrastructure. </p>
<p>The construction of housing units for national delegations, as well as of sporting arenas, have led to truculent, militarised eviction of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/28/brazil-officials-evicting-families-2016-olympic-games">hundreds of families</a> who used to live around the Olympic Park – in Barra da Tijuca – and to the gentrification of the downtown zone under the banner of “urban renewal”. </p>
<p>Accusations of overbilling and the involvement of contractors and politicians have added fuel to the fires of dissatisfaction. The interim federal government sent emergency financial aid conditional on works assumed to be fundamental to the Olympics – not to the whole project – especially to security for the event. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, essential services to citizens such as health care and education are undermined, while state civil servants remain underpaid.</p>
<h2>Suppressing dissent</h2>
<p>In the area of public security, the routine of the city changed with the arrival of the National Public Security Force and Brazilian Armed Forces. They laid siege to the “favelas” (slums) and performed military exercises to control street demonstrations and prevent – or perhaps counter – potential terrorist attacks. </p>
<p>The legal framework for these security measures is widely based on the <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=16709&LangID=E">Anti-Terrorism Act</a> enforced in March 2016. The legislation is ambiguous enough to blur the distinction between “terrorist acts” and expressions of social dissatisfaction. </p>
<p>Despite its declared intent to secure the right of public demonstration, it defines “acts of terrorism” as, for instance, the “sabotage [of] the functioning (…) of banking institutions and their servicing network”. </p>
<p>During the June 2013 street protests, banks were among the main targets of social upheaval. They were attacked as symbols of financial power, especially for their influence over public institutions and the Brazilian population. So the inclusion of protests against the banks as an “act of terrorism” provides a convenient grey area that allows not only the criminalisation but also the securitisation of the protests within a broader political context of an ongoing conservative coup.</p>
<p>The armed forces’ presence, combined with allegations about the shortcomings of the military police’s slums pacification program, may enable an authoritarian hijack of the Olympic Games. The current “state of calamity” in Rio can easily be legally transformed into a “state of defence”, which would lead to the permanent deployment of federal troops, as well as the suspension of civil and political rights.</p>
<p>In the face of such a state of affairs, the Olympic torch, far from representing the Olympic spirit, has largely come to be seen – explicitly or not – as the symbol of a whole set of frustrations. </p>
<p>Introduced for the 1936 Games in Nazi Berlin, the torch has since gained at least one more stigma. Rather than being an icon of the “Olympic ideals” envisioned by the founder of the modern Games, Pierre de Coubertin, the torch has become a symbol of the interests of big corporations and a reminder of the intervention of a wasteful entity. </p>
<h2>Enforced happiness</h2>
<p>The multiple attempts to quench the Olympic flame in Brazil had not succeeded until July 27, when the torch was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/07/28/protesters-in-brazil-halt-olympic-torch-relay-and-extinguish-its-flame/">kidnapped and extinguished</a> by a large group of protesters in Angra dos Reis, nearby Rio de Janeiro. </p>
<p>The mass media didn’t report the incident, posting comments about the demonstration without mentioning the whole story. But the action was recorded by several cellphones and the images spread through social media. </p>
<p>Some days later, in August 2, the “torch tour” was once again disturbed by massive demonstrations in São Gonçalo and Niterói (two of the last stages before its arrival in Rio). Clashes between protesters and the military police were reported. There were unconfirmed rumours that the torch itself was stolen by the mob. </p>
<p>All in all, the “most welcome torch” remains so only in the official narrative of the Olympic Games. The symbol that was supposed to set up the mood for the event made its way around the country facing nothing but a blue mood. The (en)forced happiness of the television hosts is far from enough to give breath to the gloomy spark of the Rio Olympic Games. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the torch remains a symbol – albeit one of defused dissatisfaction. Dragging around its mandatory Games happiness, the torch will finally come face-to-face with the floating garbage and foul smell of Guanabara Bay when it arrives in Rio on August 5 for the opening ceremony. </p>
<p>The bay should have been cleaned up for the Olympics, but this has still not yet truly begun.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63191/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Protests against the Rio Olympics must be understood in the context of the growing global reaction to both the way these mega-events are organised and the entities promoting them.Thiago Rodrigues, Professor of International Relations, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)Adriano de Freixo, Professor of International Relations, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/618192016-07-04T01:35:29Z2016-07-04T01:35:29ZRio reaches crisis point ahead of the Olympic Games<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/128988/original/image-20160701-18300-1xx2a4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://imgur.com/gallery/lSWDCWB">lucasavancini/imgur.com</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The state government of Rio de Janeiro has declared <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/rio-state-declares-state-of-calamity-weeks-before-olympics/2016/06/17/5bd65b78-34d8-11e6-8758-d58e76e11b12_story.html">a state of “public calamity”</a>, as it struggles to cope with <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/rio-governor-warns-olympics-big-failure-40160104">severe economic and social crises</a> in the lead up to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-brazil-be-able-to-overcome-domestic-turmoil-ahead-of-the-olympic-games-59326">2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games</a>. </p>
<p>Public services are under enormous pressure from tighter budgets, public health issues and outbreaks of violent crime. The police and fire services’ cars and helicopters have been parked indefinitely, to <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2016/06/28/amid-cuts-rio-police-ask-for-handouts-ahead-olympics/XV1RxVeAmC1XSfZ681mkzM/story.html">save money on fuel</a>. Policemen and firefighters have gone on strike – some even occupied the arrival zones <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-3664345/Welcome-Hell-Police-firefighters-warn-visitors-arriving-airport-Rio-Janeiro-not-safe.html">of airports</a> in Rio de Janeiro, with banners bearing the message: “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36653007">Welcome to the Hell</a>”. Elsewhere, in the city centre, state employees are protesting about delayed pay packages and insufficient resources. </p>
<p>This has led to a climate of fear and insecurity, at a time when numerous cases of violence and vandalism are taking place in the city and its surrounds. In April alone, there were <a href="http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2016/05/rj-tem-453-homicidios-em-abril-33-mais-que-mesmo-mes-em-2015.html">more than 450 homicides</a> in Rio. High profile cases in the last month have included a <a href="http://oglobo.globo.com/rio/medica-morta-tiros-no-acesso-linha-vermelha-19586960">physician</a> and a <a href="http://odia.ig.com.br/rio-de-janeiro/2016-05-07/adolescente-e-morta-apos-ser-baleada-durante-arrastao-na-linha-amarela.html">young girl</a>, whose murders shocked the city. Angry with actions from the government, residents have <a href="http://extra.globo.com/casos-de-policia/moradores-ateiam-fogo-onibus-no-rio-puro-terrorismo-diz-motorista-19600368.html">set fire to buses</a>, and there has been a spate of <a href="http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2016/02/assaltos-sao-rotina-no-largo-da-carioca-centro-do-rio.html">assaults</a>, <a href="http://en.news-4-u.ru/in-rio-de-janeiro-33-men-raped-the-girl-and-videos-of-a-crime-posted-on-the-internet.html">rapes</a> and <a href="http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2016/05/intenso-tiroteio-assusta-moradores-da-praca-seca-no-rio.html">shootings</a>. </p>
<p>With just over one month until the city is due to host one of the biggest sporting events on the planet, tourists and teams from many countries have already started to arrive. Serious concerns have been raised regarding the safety of these visitors; not least, Brazilian football star <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3580785/Brazilian-football-legend-Rivaldo-urges-people-stay-away-summer-s-Rio-Olympics-crime-ridden-country-saying-putting-life-risk-here.html">Rivaldo Ferreira has urged</a> people to stay away from the games, saying that attendees will be putting their lives at risk.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129005/original/image-20160701-18337-6nrjd5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129005/original/image-20160701-18337-6nrjd5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129005/original/image-20160701-18337-6nrjd5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129005/original/image-20160701-18337-6nrjd5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129005/original/image-20160701-18337-6nrjd5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129005/original/image-20160701-18337-6nrjd5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129005/original/image-20160701-18337-6nrjd5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A stark warning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BFH54DUjyHj/?taken-by=rivaldooficial">Rivaldooficial/Instagram</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recent events prove that these concerns are not unfounded: gunmen <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/brazil-gunmen-storm-rio-olympics-hospital-souza-aguiar-free-drug-trafficker/">stormed a hospital</a> that was recommended to tourists attending the games, and a dismembered body was found on Copacabana Beach, <a href="http://extra.globo.com/casos-de-policia/corpo-esquartejado-encontrado-na-praia-de-copacabana-19608854.html">near the Olympic Arena</a>. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-rio-robbery-australia-idUSKCN0Z7029">Australian paralympians</a> and <a href="http://www.thelocal.es/20160522/three-spanish-olympic-sailors-robbed-at-gunpoint-in-rio-in-brazil">Spanish sailors</a> have been robbed at gunpoint, while athletes from Great Britain, Denmark, Ireland and New Zealand <a href="http://globoesporte.globo.com/olimpiadas/noticia/2016/05/treinando-para-os-jogos-velejadores-estrangeiros-presenciam-tiroteio-no-rj.html">witnessed a shooting</a> in one of the city’s recently regenerated areas. </p>
<p>These incidents have not come out of the blue. Local citizens have long lived in fear of <a href="http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2016/05/intenso-tiroteio-assusta-moradores-da-praca-seca-no-rio.html">conflicts</a> between the police, drug cartels and militias. Authorities’ attempts to “pacify” the city’s poorer areas <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/rios-favela-pacification-plan-stumbles-months-from-olympics-1462786200">have been disrupted</a> by funding cuts and resistance from gangs. Severe <a href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/dpu-projects/Global_Report/pdfs/Rio.pdf">social inequality</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/feb/01/funding-problems-hit-plan-clean-rios-polluted-waterways-olympics">sewage problems</a> and <a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Brazil-Addresses-Rio-De-Janeiro-Health-Crisis-with-Hiring-Spree-20160108-0002.html">the demise</a> of Rio’s public health system have all compounded these issues. The problem of “<a href="http://g1.globo.com/hora1/noticia/2015/09/arrastoes-e-assaltos-assustam-moradores-e-turistas-no-rj.html">arrastão</a>” (<a href="http://noticias.uol.com.br/cotidiano/ultimas-noticias/2015/09/22/arrastao-panico-e-revolta-como-a-praia-de-domingo-virou-pesadelo-no-rio.htm">Group Crime</a>) remain in the city not only on the beaches, but now in the <a href="http://oglobo.globo.com/rio/bandidos-fazem-arrastao-queimam-veiculos-no-engenho-da-rainha-19633997">streets</a>. </p>
<h2>Damage control</h2>
<p>The city, state and national governments have taken significant steps to keep preparations for the Olympics on track. </p>
<p>Brazilian <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-brazil-be-able-to-overcome-domestic-turmoil-ahead-of-the-olympic-games-59326">special forces</a> continue to train against the possibility of terrorist attacks, and have been authorised to use force to manage dangerous situations, like the arson attacks which occurred in the run up to the <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/news/buses-in-rio-torched-1681375">FIFA football World Cup</a>. Armed forces have also been recruited to <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/video/2016/02/12/brazilian-armed-forces-prepare-for-publi?videoId=367386468">control the Zika Virus</a>, after some <a href="http://harvardpublichealthreview.org/off-the-podium-why-rios-2016-olympic-games-must-not-proceed/">scientists called for</a> the games to be cancelled – or at least <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2088612-cancel-the-olympic-games-in-brazil-because-of-zika-no-way/">postponed</a> – to address <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/rio-olympics-2016-zika-virus-global-health-disaster-a7024146.html">public health concerns</a>. </p>
<p>Throughout the games, the Brazilian army will <a href="http://www.defesa.gov.br/noticias/18780-38-mil-militares-das-forcas-armadas-estao-prontos-para-atuar-nos-jogos-rio-2016">operate a force</a> of 38,000 personnel on ten different fronts, including maritime control, border inspection, cyber security, air space monitoring, counter terrorism initiatives and more. What’s more, they will be assisted by <a href="http://www.brasil2016.gov.br/pt-br/noticias/cooperacao-policial-internacional-e-destaque-no-planejamento-de-seguranca-dos-jogos-rio-2016">international support</a> in the form of 250 police officers from 55 countries, as well as assistance from Interpol, Ameripol and Europol, until the end of the Paralympics. </p>
<p>Huge funds have also been dedicated to fill funding gaps ahead of the games. On June 24, the state of Rio de Janiero’s interim governor, Francisco Dornelles, declared that Rio was facing a “<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/rio-olympics-olympic-games-public-calamity-financial-crisis-a7088821.html">serious economic crisis</a>”. The state government has delayed pension payments, leaving almost <a href="http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2016/04/quase-140-mil-aposentados-ficarao-sem-salario-no-rj.html">140,000 residents</a> without an income. It is the first time in Brazil’s history that a state has declared bankruptcy. </p>
<p>This was, in part, a strategic move: Dornelles was seeking to elicit <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/28/americas/brazil-olympics-rio-budget/">money from Brazil’s federal government</a>, which is currently in a state of turmoil following the impeachment of <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/05/12/dumping-dilma-brazil-gets-all-male-all-white-government.html">several ministers</a>, who were reportedly linked to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/31/lava-jato-brazilian-anti-corruption-minister-quits-over-secret-recording">corruption scandals</a>, other <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/d04d4bc2-9d27-3a73-9f46-bda1b1c6a620">alleged crimes</a> and <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brazil-politics-idUKKCN0YE1JX">ethics issues</a>. The ploy has paid off: the federal government transferred approximately <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jun/28/rio-olympics-safety-security-budgets-cut">2.9 billion Brazilian real (US$878m)</a> to the state, to help fund security during the games. </p>
<h2>The public protest</h2>
<p>This cash injection has failed to satisfy the residents of Rio, who took to social media to protest the games, using the hashtags “#naovaiterolimpiadas” (no to the Olympics) and “#naoqueroolimpiadas” (I don’t want the Olympics). Many are concerned that the investment will not fix long-term problems in the city. Indeed, there are concerns that the legacy of the games will be one of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/19/2016-olympics-rio-de-janeiro-brazil-destruction">gentrification</a>, rather than social and environmental improvement. </p>
<p>The funds seem to have done little to reduce the frequency of <a href="http://noticias.r7.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticias/rio-tem-19-roubos-em-transporte-coletivo-por-dia-veja-como-se-proteger-20110810.html">assaults on public transport</a>, which has now reached almost 20 per day. Thousands <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/08/what-420-pairs-of-underwear-on-copacabana-beach-says-about-violence-against-women/">have protested</a> against Rio’s “culture of rape”, after a 16-year-old girl was reportedly gang-raped by 33 men. </p>
<p>What’s more, the national unemployment rate in Brazil was 11.2% last quarter, and continues to place a <a href="http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2016-06/brazil-unemployment-rate-112-may">huge burden on the economy</a>. And the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/21/rio-de-janeiro-bicycle-path-collapse-death-brazil-olympic-games">collapse of a new cyclepath</a> built for the games has left two people dead and called the safety of the city’s infrastructure into question. </p>
<p>It’s true that the fragility of Rio’s public services has been laid bare by the crisis. Work on many of the Olympic projects has come to an end, and some structures may be left unfinished for the games, including some venues, <a href="http://extra.globo.com/noticias/rio/trecho-do-brt-transbrasil-fica-pronto-ainda-em-agosto-18958828.html">the BRT bus lane</a>, the <a href="http://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-real-estate/rios-metro-line-4-may-not-be-ready-for-olympics/">new metro line</a> and the <a href="http://odia.ig.com.br/rio-de-janeiro/odia24horas/2016-05-24/obra-do-vlt-esta-abandonada-e-acumula-lixo-na-central.html">Light Rail Vehicle</a>, which is apparently abandoned and accumulating rubbish. And taxi drivers <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/02/rio-de-janeiro-comes-to-a-standstill-as-taxi-drivers-protest-aga/">have mobilised</a> against plans for the games, and the ongoing presence of ride-sharing scheme Uber. </p>
<p>Several unfortunate incidents during the torch relay have also dampened the public mood: a 27-year-old man attempted to extinguish the Olympic flame <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-36643346">for a dare</a>, and an endangered species of dolphin <a href="http://plus55.com/sports/2016/06/another-controversy-torch-relay-ceremony">was used</a> during the torch relay, just days after a jaguar escaped <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-36593573">and was shot dead</a> following a similar ceremony. </p>
<h2>Taking the lead</h2>
<p>Yet officials seem confident that once the Olympic Games start, such concerns <a href="http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2016/05/intenso-tiroteio-assusta-moradores-da-praca-seca-no-rio.html">will be soothed</a>. Rio’s mayor, Eduardo Paes, tweeted that the economic crisis reported by <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-rio-emergency-idUSKCN0Z32EF">international press</a> “in no way delays the delivery of Olympic projects and the promises assumed by the city of Rio”. <a href="http://www.cartacapital.com.br/revista/907/a-crise-do-estado-nao-e-fruto-dos-jogos?utm_content=buffer0f7ba&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer">According to Paes</a> “the state of crisis is not the result of the games”. The minister of justice Alexandre de Moraes says that the all problems for Rio <a href="http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/geral/noticia/2016-06/ministro-diz-que-problemas-da-olimpiada-rio-2016-estao-solucionados">will be sorted in time</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"743916313626673152"}"></div></p>
<p>There is some hope: other host cities – including <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-19028574">London</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26043872">Sochi</a> – experienced problems in the lead up to the games, yet they were still considered to be successful events. </p>
<p>These issues are not a direct result of the games – they have been brewing for years. It is unfortunate that the situation in Brazil has reached crisis point <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/sport/olympics/rio-2016/rio-2016-enough-of-the-brazil-bashing--these-olympic-games-will-be-something-special-20160627-gpsplh.html">before the Olympics</a>. But it’s still possible for Rio to host an excellent event, without wasting more money and resources. There is time to recover investments and stand the state and the country on its feet again. For Brazilian leaders, the biggest challenge will be to regain the trust and faith of their people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leonardo Jose Mataruna-Dos-Santos is also Visiting Lecturer at Advanced Programme of Contemporary Culture of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, and Visiting Professor at Universidad de Occidente in Mexico. He receives funding to investigate the legacies of mega events from Marie Curie Research Initiatives - CARNiVAL Project of European Union's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013/under REA grant agreement n° 612614.</span></em></p>The state government of Rio de Janeiro has declared a state of “public calamity”, as it struggles to cope with severe economic and social crises.Leonardo Jose Mataruna-Dos-Santos, Associate Research Fellow, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/570292016-06-15T09:51:58Z2016-06-15T09:51:58ZHow did Brazil go from rising BRIC to sinking ship?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126366/original/image-20160613-29229-1f6jjlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Brazil's economy was once considered ready to take flight. What happened?</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Most of the headlines in recent weeks have focused on Brazil’s troubling <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-dilma-rousseff-impeached-brazil-is-set-for-years-of-political-turmoil-57689">political crisis</a>. But the country is also in the midst of a deep economic recession.</p>
<p>The economy has been shrinking since the second quarter of 2014. It contracted by 3.8 percent in 2015 and is expected to shrink by a similar amount this year. Earlier this month, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said it sees the <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/oecd-sees-brazils-economic-slump-stretching-into-2017-1464796561">recession continuing into 2017</a>.</p>
<p>Yet it was only in 2009 – in the middle of the global financial crisis – that the <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/14845197">Economist magazine featured a story</a> entitled “Brazil takes off,” with a photo of the Corcovado – the iconic statue of Christ that overlooks Rio de Janeiro – launching like a rocket. That article emphasized why Brazil deserved to be one of the “BRICs” – the rapidly growing economies including Russia, India and China that now account for nearly 25 percent of global GDP.</p>
<p>How could the outlook for Brazil have changed so rapidly? Is this sort of boom and bust unprecedented or a recurring theme in Brazil’s history?</p>
<p>In this article, we provide a historical perspective on the current economic crisis, relying on our own scholarship and years of analysis of the Brazilian economy.</p>
<h2>Brazil arrives</h2>
<p>Brazil has been knocking at the door of the developed world for quite some time.</p>
<p>It has been dubbed the “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/22/world/americas/stefan-zweig-viennese-born-writer-gets-fresh-look-in-brazil.html?_r=0">country of the future</a>” since Stefan Zweig coined the phrase in the title of his 1941 book. And that <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-no-longer-the-country-of-the-future-59505">future seemed attainable</a>.</p>
<p>From 1900 to 1980, Brazil had one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. <a href="http://www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm">Income per capita rose faster</a> in Brazil than in the U.S. The country was transformed from a rural, agricultural economy – producing coffee, sugar and other products for export – into an urban, industrial powerhouse. </p>
<p>Yet a closer look at Brazilian economic history reveals frequent cycles of boom and bust, where considerable optimism fell by the wayside, leaving behind unfulfilled dreams. The future, it seems, has always been just around the corner. </p>
<p><a href="http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2016/03/1749299-recessao-economica-atual-deve-ser-a-pior-da-historia-do-brasil.shtml">Several analysts</a> in Brazil have begun to repeat the claim that the current recession is likely to be worse than what Brazil faced in the 1930s. While technically correct, in our view, this is not the appropriate comparison. </p>
<p>Brazil did quite well in the 1930s relative to many other countries. After growing at over 10 percent a year in 1927 and 1928, the Brazilian economy only contracted in 1930 and 1931. The recession was then followed by eight years of fairly robust growth. </p>
<p>The 1980s and early 1990s were a much more painful time in Brazil, following a particularly potent boom known as the “Brazilian Miracle.” We return to a comparison with this period below.</p>
<h2>State-led industrialization and the ‘Brazilian Miracle’</h2>
<p>Following World War II, Brazil’s federal government began to plan for economic development and target industrialization and high rates of growth.</p>
<p>Juscelino Kubitschek became president in 1956 and <a href="http://www.pressreader.com/belgium/the-wall-street-journal-europe/20160425/281749858539213">promised to deliver</a> “50 years of progress in five.” This was a period of immense optimism, and Brazil seemed like an endless construction site, with highways, buildings and industries popping up throughout the country.</p>
<p>As a symbol of this progress, Brasilia was inaugurated in 1960 as a planned capital city with a modernist architecture. Yet the optimism of the 1950s quickly gave way to the political turmoil of the early 1960s.</p>
<p>When Jânio Quadros abruptly resigned the presidency in 1961, the left-leaning Vice President João Goulart took office. His support of labor rights, land reform and other populist policies led to his removal by the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Politics-Military-Rule-Brazil-1964-1985/dp/0195063163">military in a 1964 coup</a>, with the support of the Brazilian elite and U.S. government. The generals would run the country until 1985. </p>
<p>Brazilian democracy and a more inclusive model of development were the principal victims. Growth, in contrast, quickly resumed, and this contributed to rapid poverty reduction. In what became known as the Brazilian Miracle, <a href="http://IPEAdata.gov.br">real GDP expanded</a> at over 8 percent annually in every year but one from 1968 to 1976. Poverty fell by over 20 percentage points from 1960 to 1980, even while <a href="http://www.worldcat.org/title/structure-and-structural-change-in-the-brazilian-economy/oclc/44851721">income inequality</a> continued to rise. </p>
<h2>What went wrong</h2>
<p>Unlike with the slowdowns of the 1930s and mid-1960s, the depth and length of the economic crisis of the 1980s were much more severe. </p>
<p>The global economy had changed in the 1970s and Brazil was slow to adapt. It relied on foreign debt to prolong the inward-looking industrialization model that had worked so well for decades, but this too came to an end in 1982 when a debt crisis erupted throughout <a href="http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2011_L000243">Latin America</a>.</p>
<p>The optimism of the miracle years would be replaced by stagnation and hyperinflation. From 1981 to 1992, the economy experienced negative annual growth in five separate years, and <a href="http://IPEAdata.gov.br">annual inflation soared</a> into the thousands. Income per capita peaked in 1980 and would only permanently surpass this level again in 1994.</p>
<p>This was a “lost decade” for Brazil in terms of living standards, but popular discontent forced the military to exit power in 1985 and led to the writing of a new Constitution in 1988.</p>
<h2>Back to boom</h2>
<p>The foundations for the most recent cycle of growth and optimism were laid from 1994 to 2002.</p>
<p>First, after numerous failed attempts, in 1994 the government finally devised a stabilization plan – <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2010/10/01/130267274/the-friday-podcast-how-four-drinking-buddies-saved-brazil">the Real Plan</a> – that succeeded in defeating hyperinflation. Then, from 1995 to 2002, a number of important policies were adopted under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/research/books/2011/startingover">These included</a> a modest reform of the public sector social security system, the creation of an anti-poverty conditional cash transfer program tied to kids going to school and the adoption of an important fiscal responsibility law that – 15 years later – would be used to justify removing President Dilma Rousseff from office. </p>
<p>Cardoso also made progress in adopting more sound macroeconomic policies as he let the exchange rate float in 1999 and then instituted a system of inflation and fiscal targets. While this was a period of slow growth and international turbulence, inequality began to decline for the first time in at least 30 years. </p>
<p>Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva <a href="http://www.livrariacultura.com.br/p/economia-brasileira-contemporanea-19452004-781630">pursued similar macroeconomic policies</a> during his presidency from 2003 to 2010, reformed the social security system and transformed and expanded the anti-poverty policies. With a much more favorable international environment, until 2009, and a strong commodity boom, the economy expanded at around 4 percent per year, and poverty declined by around one third. <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/research/books/2010/declininginequalityinlatinamerica">This was the first time</a> in at least 50 years that Brazil simultaneously experienced growth and a reduction in both poverty and inequality. </p>
<p>With rising living standards and falling poverty, Brazil once again entered a phase of considerable optimism. As Brazil paid off its debt with the IMF, the country began to discover large reserves of oil. International rating agencies elevated the classification of Brazilian foreign debt <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2008-05-01/brazil-goes-investment-gradebusinessweek-business-news-stock-market-and-financial-advice">from speculative to investment grade</a>, clearing the way for U.S. pension funds to invest in Brazil. Among Brazilian policymakers, it became common to talk of “sustainable development.” </p>
<p>The optimism only intensified when Brazil <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2007/SPORT/football/10/30/brazil.cup/">was chosen</a>, in 2007, to host the 2014 World Cup and the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/03/sports/03olympics.html">2016 Summer Olympics</a> two years later – in the middle of the global financial crisis.</p>
<h2>The financial crisis slowly grips Brazil</h2>
<p>President Lula initially dismissed the crisis.</p>
<p>In October 2008, <a href="http://oglobo.globo.com/economia/lula-crise-tsunami-nos-eua-se-chegar-ao-brasil-sera-marolinha-3827410">he said</a> that although it might be a tsunami in the U.S., by the time it arrived in Brazil it would just be a little wave. At a G20 Summit in London in 2009, President Barack Obama was caught on camera <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7978816.stm">calling his Brazilian counterpart</a> “the most popular politician on earth.” </p>
<p>At first it seemed as if Lula might be right. Brazil had a single year of recession in 2009, and the economy rebounded by over 7 percent the following year. </p>
<p>But it soon became clear, as in earlier periods, that Brazil’s fate is very much tied to the health of the world economy and its choice of public policies. The economy came to a screeching halt in 2014, with zero growth, and contracted severely in 2015 and 2016. Simultaneously, the government deficit ballooned to over 6 percent of GDP in 2014 and over 10 percent in 2015.</p>
<p>President Rousseff, who came to power in 2011, disguised the deteriorating fiscal situation during the election of 2014, just as the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/business/international/effects-of-petrobras-scandal-leave-brazilians-lamenting-a-lost-dream.html?_r=0">corruption scandal</a> at Petrobras widened. This, together with a debt downgrade, provided the economic backdrop that led to her removal from office as she awaits an impeachment trial later this year.</p>
<h2>Three lessons from the past</h2>
<p>It is too soon to tell if the current recession will be more like the downturn of the 1930s or the “lost decade” of the 1980s. But there are several lessons that can be drawn from recent history that allow us to conclude that Brazil’s rosy future is still out of reach. We highlight three.</p>
<p>First, investments in physical and human capital were a central component of the development success stories in China and the East Asian Tigers. Brazil, in contrast, has repeatedly fallen short on these fronts. Most recently, Brazil squandered the opportunity presented by the commodity boom to invest heavily in infrastructure.</p>
<p>Second, Brazil’s history of runaway inflation was, in part, a reflection of the inability of successive governments to make difficult policy choices. Similarly, while the commodity boom lasted, the government seemed able to satisfy all demands – from raising the minimum wage and subsidizing national business “champions” to expanding cash transfers to the poor – all while it built stadiums for international sporting events and cut debt as a share of GDP. Now that the boom years have ended, the time for reckoning has arrived. Unfortunately, it is often the poor who pay the price. </p>
<p>Finally, Brazil needs deep institutional reforms in order to lay the groundwork for a successful 21st century. One of the most challenging reforms relates to the country’s dysfunctional political system. With over two dozen parties in Congress, it is extremely difficult to govern. This fragmentation creates an environment ripe for the kinds of corruption scandals witnessed in 2005 – with the bribery scheme in Congress – and again with Petrobras today. It is this political and institutional environment that contributes to mismanagement and corruption at all levels.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, whether <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-brazilian-president-dilma-rousseffs-real-crime-59363">President Rousseff</a> returns to office or is permanently removed, there are few grounds for <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-dilma-rousseffs-impeachment-a-coup-or-brazils-window-of-opportunity-59362">optimism</a> that these deeper problems will be addressed any time soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57029/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven M. Helfand has received funding for research from the USAID, USDA, IFPRI, World Bank, IDB, OECD, IFAD, FAO, and Brazilian academic and research sources. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antônio Márcio Buainain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Only a few years ago, Brazil was considered the global economy’s shining star. How did it fall so far so fast?Steven M. Helfand, Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, RiversideAntônio Márcio Buainain, Professor of Economics, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/594332016-05-19T01:26:26Z2016-05-19T01:26:26ZWhat Rousseff’s impeachment means for Brazil’s struggling millions<p>In Brazil, right-wing parties and politicians are following constitutional procedures to oust the country’s democratically elected president, Dilma Rousseff. They claim that she made improper use of budgetary procedures to bolster her 2014 reelection campaign. </p>
<p>The left calls it an illegitimate coup. They believe the ultimate goal is gutting the welfare, housing and affirmative action <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-poverty-idUSBRE91I14F20130219">policies</a> that Rousseff’s Workers Party put in place to address the needs of Brazil’s poor majority. They argue that the president herself has not been accused of illicit personal gain and that the budgetary irregularities are not sufficient grounds for removal from office.</p>
<p>Both sides are right.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.upress.pitt.edu/BookDetails.aspx?bookId=36546">interdisciplinary scholar</a> studying Brazilian democracy from the <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/sustaining-activism">ground up</a>, I have interviewed scores of activists in social movements and seen firsthand the many ways in which, since the 1980s, the people of Brazil have come on the scene. The <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/17/americas/brazil-impeachment-dilma-rousseff/">spectacle</a> of one corrupt congressman after another demanding the ouster of a female president who has implemented successful antipoverty and affirmative action programs has riveted Brazilians and gained global attention. The twists and turns of Supreme Court rulings and annulments and reinstatements of the impeachment vote obscure what is truly at stake – the arc of democracy that has empowered Brazil’s citizens and improved their lives. </p>
<h2>The Brazilian people coming on the scene</h2>
<p>Brazil has the sixth largest economy, the fifth largest population, the fourth largest democracy and the second largest black population in the world. Over the past three decades – in contrast to much of the world – Brazil has been largely free of political terrorism, ethnic violence and religious fundamentalism. </p>
<p>If there are countries in the global south where sustainable and inclusive democracy may take root and flourish, Brazil is foremost among them.</p>
<p>Over the past three decades, virtually all the country’s citizens – middle class, poor people, indigenous people, blacks, women, residents of mega-cities and landless peasants – have been voting in <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2015/brazil">free and fair elections</a>. They’ve been working, protesting, forming community associations and nongovernmental organizations, and <a href="http://www.enduringreform.org">fighting</a> for decent jobs, housing, education and health care. Brazilians have struggled to gain rights and articulate what those rights should be.</p>
<p>The deepening of Brazil’s current democracy has been a rich and robust process. It began with the end of a military dictatorship in 1985 and the writing of a new constitution in 1988. This constitution, with its provisions for civil society’s participation in governing, reflects the strength of grassroots mobilization and protest that has marked modern Brazil.</p>
<p>While the resulting democracy has been shot through with violence from gangs, traffickers and police – and with corruption and injustice on all sides, not least from politicians – it has <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/12/05/the-anointed">delivered</a>.</p>
<p>Brazilian politics since the 1990s has provided first steps toward meaningful citizenship, rising living standards and daily lives <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/rr-brazil-experience-food-nutrition-security-190214-en.pdf">without hunger</a> for all Brazilians. This inclusion has fostered a rough-and-tumble public sphere with meaningful guarantees of free speech, where political ideas about what society should look like have been debated and voted upon.</p>
<h2>Decades of democratic progress hang in the balance</h2>
<p>This is not the first time ordinary people have played an active role in politics in Brazil. In the late 1950s and early 1960s, Brazilians elected leaders who addressed issues such as housing, wages and education for ordinary people. The democratic move to the left was cut short by <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/10/brazil-president-weeps-report-military-dictatorship-abuses">a brutal military coup</a> in 1964. </p>
<p>Brazilian economic elites and military officers, with <a href="http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB118/">the support of the U.S.</a> government, quashed progressive policymaking and tortured and imprisoned activists. Among them was <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/05/world/americas/president-rousseffs-decades-old-torture-detailed.html?pagewanted=all">Dilma Rousseff</a>. The generals then governed Brazil from 1964 to 1985.</p>
<p>The same thing happened across Latin America in the 1960s and 1970s. Leftist candidates secured electoral victories when ordinary people made claims for economic and political rights. This brought military coups and <a href="http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB8/nsaebb8i.htm">dirty wars</a> of torture and disappearance across the continent. </p>
<p>The second coming of the people on the scene in Latin America, from the 1980s to the present, mirrors the first in many ways. Several decades of fair elections have brought progressive policies, movements, and new political voices across the continent. These range from worker-run factories <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/argentina-recovered-factory-movement">in Argentina</a> to indigenous governments in <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29686249">Bolivia</a>, from Brazil’s redistributive <em><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/dec/17/brazil-bolsa-familia-decade-anniversary-poverty-relief">bolsa familia</a></em> to nationwide support for victims of violence and disappearance <a href="https://news.vice.com/article/these-protesters-want-mexican-police-prosecuted-for-being-generally-terrible">in Mexico</a>. </p>
<p>The process of economic inclusion under democratic governments was bolstered over the past decade by the dynamism of <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-30982544">China’s economy</a>, which paid high prices for Latin America’s mineral and agricultural exports. China’s current economic slump has pressed Brazil into recession. </p>
<h2>Rollback going forward</h2>
<p>Now that President Rousseff has been impeached, Brazilians face uncertainty at a tense moment, with the economy in free-fall and the Olympics just months away. The country’s democratic progress and the future of the people who have come on the scene are once again at stake. </p>
<p>Will the presence of newly empowered citizens claiming, voting for, and implementing inclusive policies continue through this tempestuous time? Or, will right-wing politicians and business people again succeed in turning back these achievements, at great cost to poor majorities and a democratic government? </p>
<p>The key issue right now is less who is governing than how they are governing. The prospects are not encouraging.</p>
<p>As the unfolding “Car Wash” scandal has demonstrated, Brazil’s democracy is intertwined with corruption <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/business/international/effects-of-petrobras-scandal-leave-brazilians-lamenting-a-lost-dream.html">across the political spectrum</a>. Congressmen who amassed fortunes through bribery and graft have used the impeachment to denounce the policies and programs of the country’s leftist government. Hoping to avoid prosecution themselves, they are calling for a turn to the right.</p>
<p>Upon assuming the presidency, Rousseff’s vice president, Michel Temer, appointed an <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/13/michel-temer-brazil-president-rebuild-impeachment">all white, all male</a> cabinet. He has vowed to turn the economy around by slashing social programs and favoring business – positions that were rejected in presidential elections in 2014. In office less than a week, Temer announced plans to privatize public enterprises and roads, cancel increases in minimum benefits for retirees and <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a605d872-8bf5-11e5-8be4-3506bf20cc2b.html#axzz492ZSnycR">revoke legislation</a> that mandates minimum government investments in education and health care.</p>
<p>The current crisis has multiple causes. If Worker’s Party representatives in Congress had not stolen money, then President Rousseff would have been less vulnerable to impeachment. If the right in Brazil had fiercely critiqued Rousseff’s policies, and prepared strong positions and constituencies to oppose them in future elections – rather than impeach her on questionable grounds – that would have advanced the democratic process. It would also have been a step forward for democracy if Brazilian politicians were railing against corruption across the political spectrum and demanding that all the criminals in Congress resign.</p>
<p>Instead, we are faced with the smoke and mirrors of impeachment. And the rhetoric, political appointments and policy proposals of President Temer display every sign of rollback for the people on the scene.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey W. Rubin has received funding for his research from The MacArthur Foundation, The Ford Foundation, The Open Society Foundations, The American Philosophical Society, The Boston University Center for the Humanities, The David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies at Harvard, and the Fulbright Program.</span></em></p>A BU professor walks through the turmoil of Brazil’s political past to explain why there’s more at stake than you might think.Jeffrey W. Rubin, Associate Professor of History, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/593262016-05-18T12:43:45Z2016-05-18T12:43:45ZWill Brazil be able to overcome domestic turmoil ahead of the Olympic Games?<p>When Dilma Rousseff received the Olympic Flame in Brasilia at the beginning of May, her intention was to attend the opening ceremony of the Rio 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games as Brazil’s head of state. Now, the nation’s first democratically elected woman president <a href="https://theconversation.com/dilma-rousseff-suspended-so-whats-next-for-brazils-frayed-and-fragmented-democracy-59319">has been suspended</a> pending an investigation into <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-dilma-rousseff-impeached-brazil-is-set-for-years-of-political-turmoil-57689">allegations that</a> she intentionally concealed the size of the country’s budget deficit. </p>
<p>This is only the second time that an impeachment has been sought against a Brazilian president, and its legality <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/20/world/americas/dilma-rousseff-impeachment-brazil.html">has been contested</a> by representatives from Rousseff’s government. The topic has divided the country, and millions of citizens have taken to the streets – either to call for Rousseff’s resignation, or to rally <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/04/28/brazils-anti-impeachment-protesters-block-highways-at-rush-hour/">against her impeachment</a>. In some cases, <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/violent-protests-in-brazil-ahead-of-impeachment-vote-1.2645271">violence has reportedly broken out</a> between civilians and the police, and it seems likely that more protests will follow. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the nation continues to struggle with its deepest recession since the 1930s – not to mention outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-where-did-zika-virus-come-from-and-why-is-it-a-problem-in-brazil-53425">Zika Virus</a>, dengue fever and Chikungunya and the ongoing <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-massive-petrobras-corruption-scandal-is-upending-brazilian-politics-43939">Petrobras corruption scandal</a>. With fewer than 100 days to go until the opening of the games, some are <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3588239/Fears-Olympics-Brazil-plunges-political-chaos-Riot-police-clash-activists-streets-acting-president-installs-SECOND-sports-minister-two-months.html">starting to question</a> whether Brazil is still in a position to host the sporting mega-event. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122587/original/image-20160515-10670-e8abi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122587/original/image-20160515-10670-e8abi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122587/original/image-20160515-10670-e8abi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122587/original/image-20160515-10670-e8abi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122587/original/image-20160515-10670-e8abi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122587/original/image-20160515-10670-e8abi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122587/original/image-20160515-10670-e8abi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rousseff receives the Olympic Flame in Brasilia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://fotospublicas.com/lanterna-contendo-a-chama-olimpica-chega-ao-aeroporto-internacional-de-brasilia/">Lula Marques/ Agência PT</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In his first speech since becoming interim president, Michel Temer <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-36283027">appealed to Brazilians</a> to “trust him” as he attempts to restore peace and prosperity. He assured citizens that recovery measures as deleting nine ministry in the government body, reviewing the social security and other conservative shifts will not be affected by preparations for the games. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazils-new-leader-has-to-deal-with-a-political-crisis--and-save-the-olympics/2016/05/13/5913f4e4-18a0-11e6-971a-dadf9ab18869_story.html">He said</a>: “Billions of people will watch the games, and journalists from different countries will be here to report on the host nation … we know that beyond sports, they will also focus on the political and economic conditions of the country.”</p>
<h2>The giant has woken</h2>
<p>This isn’t the first time that Brazil has experienced civil unrest while standing in the international spotlight. In 2013, protests against the rising cost of bus fares were met by police <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-22930402">close to Maracanã Stadium</a>, where the Confederations Cup was taking place. But on the whole, well-organised security operations have usually ensured that such events have gone ahead without a hitch: neither the 2011 World Military Games, nor the 2014 FIFA World Cup, experienced any major incidents. </p>
<p>Strategies to ensure the <a href="https://www.rio2016.com/en/news/brazil-is-prepared-promises-security-chief-for-rio-2016-olympic-and-paralympic-games">smooth running</a> of the Olympic Games have been developed since last year, when <a href="http://g1.globo.com/distrito-federal/noticia/2016/03/jogos-olimpicos-terao-85-mil-homens-em-esquema-de-seguranca-diz-defesa.html">it was declared</a> that the military would be <a href="http://dialogo-americas.com/en_GB/articles/rmisa/features/2015/12/29/feature-04">responsible for security</a> throughout the event. More than 704m Brazilian reals (US$169m) have been invested to this end since the FIFA 2014 Cup. </p>
<p>Brazilian armed forces have been training with <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3488388/Brazilian-army-trains-U-S-soldiers-possible-terrorist-attack-ahead-Rio-Olympics.html">other specialist military bodies</a> from around the world, to avert <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/651978/isis-islamic-state-is-isil-daesh-olympic-games-rio-2016-brazil-zika-terror-attack">terrorist threats</a> like those seen ahead of the <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2010/SPORT/football/05/31/football.world.cup.terror/">FIFA 2010 World Cup</a> and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2012/jun/05/mi5-wave-security-tipoffs-games">London 2012 Summer Olympics</a>. The Brazilian military will also provide a fallback security service, in case of strikes or understaffing by private security firms, to avoid the issues seen in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10329679">South Africa 2010</a> and <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/26/sport/olympic-security-overview/index.html">London 2012</a>. The security forces are on high alert after <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/war-isis-brazil-warns-daesh-could-hit-rio-olympics-2016-paris-style-terror-attack-1555191">ISIS mentioned</a> that the next target is Brazil. </p>
<p>Open areas such as the <a href="https://www.rio2016.com/en/cultural-festival">cultural festival</a>, the country houses (spaces where competing countries promote their image) and major sporting venues will be key zones in the up and coming competition. Emergency plans have been developed for regions throughout Brazil, in case local police and security forces have trouble maintaining control. And the military will monitor social media and political groups, to produce a map of future protests planned around the whole country, as they did for the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-protests-insight-idUSBREA141JO20140205">2014 FIFA CUP</a>. </p>
<p>This may sound excessive, but in reality authorities will be cautious about using force against protesters. The new government will want to reassure citizens – for whom the memory of Brazil’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-26713772">former military dictatorship</a> looms large – that the country is still a democracy, and that every military intervention will be made with proper oversight. </p>
<h2>The price of the games</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122873/original/image-20160517-17030-11j869r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122873/original/image-20160517-17030-11j869r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122873/original/image-20160517-17030-11j869r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122873/original/image-20160517-17030-11j869r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=837&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122873/original/image-20160517-17030-11j869r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122873/original/image-20160517-17030-11j869r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122873/original/image-20160517-17030-11j869r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1052&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fun, but not for everyone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Parque_Ol%C3%ADmpico_da_Barra_da_Tijuca_em_2015_01.jpg">Tânia Rêgo/Agência Brasil/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As well as the social and political unrest, the new government will also need to address Brazil’s economic collapse. The games have exposed the fault lines between rich and poor in Brazilian society. For less wealthy citizens, the impacts of the nation’s worst economic crisis since the 1930s have overshadowed the dazzle of the Olympics. Tickets and merchandise for the games are only really affordable for foreign visitors and the Brazilian upper classes: ordinary Londoners were likewise excluded from the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/apr/24/london-2012-locog-olympic-tickets">2012 games</a>. </p>
<p>What’s more, most Brazilians do not expect the games to afford them any significant economic legacies. Indeed, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-reasons-why-your-city-wont-want-to-host-the-olympic-games-52289">high cost of hosting</a> the games is enough to put many cities off. For instance, Montreal struggled to pay off its 1976 Olympic bill <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/19/world/canada-montreal-olympic-legacy/index.html">for 30 years</a> after the event, while costly infrastructure from previous games in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTY9ZzXTyW4&feature=player_embedded">Athens (2004)</a> and <a href="http://www.citylab.com/work/2012/07/beijings-olympic-ruins/2499/">Beijing (2008)</a> has since been abandoned. </p>
<p>And Brazil has had bad experiences in the past: the 2007 Pan-American Games, held in Rio, left little aside from abandoned infrastructure and <a href="http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1926094,00.html">unfulfilled promises</a>. Many of these public spaces were later privatised, to reduce the cost of maintaining them. Yet the government has sought to reassure citizens of Rio that Olympic investment will contribute to the public good, by opening spaces such as Madureira Park; a 90,000m² site in one of the city’s less affluent neighbourhoods, which has become a hub for families and friends who meet there to dance, play sport or simply enjoy the park. </p>
<p>The organising committee for the Olympics has promised to open the gates of the Olympic Park cluster after one year. This will mean that the 1.8m square metres of Olympic infrastructure is open to the public, including new transport links, a training centre, sports infrastructure for locals and an experimental Olympic school dedicated to delivering a mix of sports education and high quality teaching quality for over 850 students. </p>
<h2>Will everything be okay?</h2>
<p>The interim government is also arranging its affairs to ensure the smooth running of the games. As well as appointing a new cabinet, interim president Michel Temer has introduced Leonardo Picciani as the new minister for sport (which makes him the third person hold the role in 2016) – despite a reported <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sports-minister-denies-conflict-interest-olympic-works-170327239--spt.html">conflict of interest</a>. </p>
<p>But former <a href="http://www.brasil2016.gov.br/en/news/ricardo-leyser-takes-over-as-minister-of-sport">minister for sport Ricardo Leyser</a> – who has been with the ministry since 2003 – is likely to remain on the scene, to support the Rio 2016 Organising Committee, ensure continuity and help to maintain connections between the government, the organising committee and the International Olympic and Paralympic committees. </p>
<p>We know that Brazil has the capacity to host successful mega-events: it’s been doing so since the <a href="http://library.la84.org/SportsLibrary/JOH/JOHv16n1/JOHv16n1g.pdf">beginning of the 20th century</a>. Hosting the Olympic and Paralympic Games will be the nation’s biggest responsibility yet, but there are strategies in place to ensure that everything proceeds without incident. </p>
<p>Yet there are no such guarantees when it comes to restoring peace, growing the economy, addressing public health crises and fighting inequality. There’s a popular proverb among the locals of Rio de Janeiro: “Everything will be okay in the end. If it’s not okay, it’s not the end.” And while everything might be okay for the Olympics, it is certainly not the end of Brazil’s political and economic struggles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59326/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leonardo Mataruna-Dos-Santos is also Visiting Lecturer at Advanced Programme of Contemporary Culture of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, and Visiting Professor at Universidad de Occidente in Mexico. He receives funding to investigate the legacies of mega events from Marie Curie Research Initiatives - CARNiVAL Project of European Union's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013/under REA grant agreement n° 612614. </span></em></p>With an ongoing impeachment process and a deep economic recession, the host nation is on thin ice ahead of one of the world’s largest sporting mega-events.Leonardo Jose Mataruna-Dos-Santos, Associate Research Fellow, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/568192016-03-30T12:26:33Z2016-03-30T12:26:33ZHow Brazil’s media is hounding out the president<p>Whatever the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-idUSKCN0WU1AC">eventual fate of the Brazilian president</a>, Dilma Rousseff – resignation, impeachment or even imprisonment – it’s clear that the forces that are overwhelming her presidency owe a great deal to the country’s media. In fact, it would be true to say that the media has been one of the prime movers in the crisis now engulfing the 69-year-old leader.</p>
<p>Rousseff, whose government has been beset by allegations of corruption, has been <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/29/brazil-president-dilma-rousseff-closer-impeachment-coalition-partner-quits">deserted by the biggest party</a> in the Brazilian congress, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (PMDB). In a stroke, this has increased the prospect of her being impeached and removed from office within weeks.</p>
<p>Her predecessor as president, Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva, recently told reporters that <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/28/brazil-corruption-investigation-lula-da-silva-rousseff">Rousseff was facing what he called a “coup”</a> mounted by her opponents with the enthusiastic connivance of the media.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>For a leader to govern, they cannot be preoccupied with day-to-day survival. It’s bloodshed every single day. [By] a part of the Brazilian media [that] helps to worsen the environment of hatred on the streets of this country.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Since her re-election in 2014 with a majority of 52% to 48%, Rousseff’s presidency <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazilian-spring-whats-behind-the-latest-protests-56477">has been severely weakened</a> by an anti-Workers’ Party (PT) agenda pushed by sectors of the media <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/18/brazil-judiciary-democracy-sergio-moro-impeach-dilma-rousseff">in alliance with some conservative judges and opposition parties</a>. </p>
<p>Brazil’s media has set up federal judge, Sergio Moro, as a <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-protesters-find-hero-in-crusading-judge-sergio-moro-1458254059">sort of avenging angel</a> tasked with bringing down Rousseff and her government. Moro has overseen the two-year “Car Wash” investigation into corruption at the state oil firm Petrobras. The Car Wash investigations have undoubtedly been very important for the country – and have been possible thanks to the government’s strengthening of the autonomy of the federal police and the implementation of anti-corruption measures in the last few years. </p>
<p>But Moro has himself been criticised for not targeting opposition leaders involved in corruption allegations, for seeking media fame, and for allowing himself to emerge as a sort of “right wing” hero among sectors of the population disillusioned with the democratic process and Brazilian politicians in general. </p>
<p>While Rousseff herself has not been implicated in the Car Wash probe, the investigation has <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21679861-courts-treat-suspects-too-harshly-and-convicts-too-leniently-weird-justice">pointed the finger at several high ranking PT members</a> as well as senior politicians from other parties. These include the PMDP which has <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/30/americas/brazil-crisis-rousseff-lula/">now quit the ruling coalition</a> in a move likely to hasten impeachment proceedings against the president.</p>
<p>The possibility of such a “<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-idUSKCN0WU1AC">soft coup</a>” occurring in the next few months has become more likely. Although there are disputes over the terminology “coup”, the fact of the matter is that the impeachment process is seen as flawed and highly political. </p>
<p>It is presided over by Eduardo Cunha, the speaker of the lower house of Congress, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/03/brazil-eduardo-cunha-perjury-investigation-swiss-bank-account">who is himself formally accused</a> of corruption and of owning foreign offshore accounts with money stolen from Petrobras, <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-brazil-impeach-20160328-story.html">alongside another 37 MPs also accused of corruption</a> and members of the impeachment commission. So, far from strengthening institutional processes, there is a real risk of setting the clock back on democracy and impeding the country’s economic recovery.</p>
<h2>Partisan approach</h2>
<p>While Rousseff has not been personally caught up in any of the series of scandals besetting Brazil’s political class, she’s <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/democraciaabierta/alfredo-saad-filho/overthrowing-dilma-rousseff">been accused instead of incompetence</a> in dealing with corruption, as well as mismanagement of the economy – and her popularity has slumped. But coverage of the scandals has become highly politicised and partisan, something that has deepened social divisions in Brazil and has weakened its fragile hold on democracy. </p>
<p>The media seems to have one dominant narrative, which is repeated to the point of exhaustion: the moral crusade against corruption which aligns parts of the opposition with the “good society”. “Petista” – which refers to the Worker’s Party (PT) – has somehow become a pejorative synonym for corrupt, or “in favour of corruption”.</p>
<p>Brazilians are subjected to this simplistic good guy/bad guy narrative on a 24-hour basis – it is rolled out to justify every accusation against any member of PT, when other politicians across the breadth of the political spectrum have been equally, if not more, implicated in corruption accusations. </p>
<p>With few exceptions, media narratives over the past few years have done little to explain to citizens the power relations and political interests implicated in the crisis – with organisations such as <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/brazil-pro-rousseff-protesters-march-tv-globo-37915289">Globo TV being accused of cheerleading instead the anti-government rallies</a>. </p>
<h2>Getting personal</h2>
<p>Coverage of Rousseff has been pretty unpleasant from the start – the first female president of the country, was called all sorts of nasty names by politicians as well as by mainstream journalists on social media. Some even went as far as to suggest that <a href="http://buenosairesherald.com/article/193457/%E2%80%98i-am-not-going-to-fall%E2%80%99-says-defiant-dilma-in-newspaper-interview">she had committed suicide</a>. Meanwhile, at legitimate anti-government protests, the voices of concerned citizens have been drowned out by small but very loud extreme right wing groups, including people <a href="http://www.thedawn-news.org/2016/03/14/the-brazilian-opposition-protested-against-dilma-rousseff/">doing Nazi salutes</a> and simulating the killing of homeless people and blacks. The mainstream press calls this “freedom of speech”. </p>
<p>Many academics and journalists argue that sectors of the media have had a role in stimulating hate, acting irresponsibly and creating divisions in society. This is seen as as a consequence of the failure of media reform in Brazil, a country which has a highly concentrated media landscape where <a href="https://theintercept.com/2016/03/18/brazil-is-engulfed-by-ruling-class-corruption-and-a-dangerous-subversion-of-democracy/">very few companies dominate public debate</a> and the media environment has been compared to Fox News being joined by all other mainstream US broadcasters in going after a president they don’t like. </p>
<p>Brazil was once the darling of the international community for having survived two decades of right-wing military dictatorship and for building a modern pluralistic society with a strong economy that was rightly part of the surging BRICS block of economic tigers. But as the economy falters and the country’s politics polarises into violently opposing camps, the future of democracy in Brazil is at risk. These are dangerous times for Brazil.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carolina Matos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Brazilians aren’t getting a truthful account of what’s going on in their country.Carolina Matos, Lecturer in Sociology, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/564772016-03-18T11:51:55Z2016-03-18T11:51:55ZBrazilian spring: what’s behind the latest protests?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115572/original/image-20160318-4450-1y7k9s2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Fernando Bizerra Jr.</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Contrary to how it may seem today mass protests in Brazil were until recently a relatively rare occurrence. But since 2011, the country seems to have entered a “<a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=1XuFqsN13woC&pg=PA150&lpg=PA150&dq=contentious+cycle&source=bl&ots=81qJqAKjsj&sig=YY7dPNtfZY4x4o95dwaIm-dB_Ns&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiF3Na29MnLAhUImBoKHTR-Br8Q6AEIMDAE#v=onepage&q=contentious%20cycle&f=false">contentious cycle</a>”, when repeated and growing mobilisations follow each other in a short period of time. </p>
<p>Discontent has now reached the point where several hundred thousand people are <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-35829626">on the move</a> in Brasilia, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, calling for the impeachment (or resignation, whatever comes first) of the president, Dilma Rousseff.</p>
<p>After inheriting the presidency from Lula Da Silva, who had left office in 2011 with record levels of approval and the endorsement of Barack Obama as “the most popular politician on Earth”, Rousseff – Lula’s former chief of staff – also inherited a suite of increasingly urgent problems. The <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/12/economic-backgrounder">slowdown of the Brazilian economy</a> – so buoyant in the 2000s – was already noticeable. The administration was coming under pressure to change course by the financial establishment, the conservative media and some of its right-wing allies in congress, where Rousseff’s party, the Workers Party (PT), controls only about a third of votes. </p>
<p>This situation produced what the London-based Brazilian economist Saad-Filho called a “<a href="http://crs.sagepub.com/content/39/5/657.short">confluence of dissatisfactions</a>”, between students and left-wing activists and various categories of workers, who were joined by middle-class people in feeling squeezed from below and disenfranchised after a decade of PT rule. </p>
<p>To compound this, after <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-35810578">years of scandals</a> that Lula had been able to manage politically, disenchantment at corruption had become widespread and, during Brazil’s independence day celebrations in September 2011, <a href="http://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/front-page/brazil-anti-corruption-protests-stay-active/">mass protests erupted</a>. More than 30,000 people marched in the streets of Brasilia, calling for the end of secret voting in congress and the approval of anti-corruption and transparency laws. But these protests were relatively small and non-partisan, and did not directly target the government. In fact, Rousseff had supported the fight against corruption, firing accused ministers and facilitating the work of prosecutors. But there was a catch: she had inherited Lula’s cabinet – and many of the officials under investigation continued to occupy high positions in her government. It was a powder keg.</p>
<h2>Explosion of discontent</h2>
<p>This powder keg exploded in 2013, in a viral episode that within a few days went from a small demonstration against the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-22899748">rise of bus fares in São Paulo</a> to millions of people taking the streets through the country, social media campaigns, neo-anarchist groups looting stores, police repression and the world’s media wondering about what was going on in this rising power about to host the World Cup and <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/rio-2016">the 2016 Olympics in Rio</a>. </p>
<p>Still the protests did not centre exclusively on the president or the PT, pointing instead to the political system and the overall establishment. As a matter of fact, signs of political partisanship, either for or against the government, were often rejected by the protest movement. And, at this stage Rousseff publicly embraced the protesters’ claims and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-23012547">offered a number of concessions</a> – sidestepping political opponents and the media which had initially framed protesters as “vandals” destroying public property. The government managed to contain discontent and even though Rousseff experienced <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304655304579552064060167176">sharp fall in her approval ratings</a>, she recovered ground and was <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/26/world/americas/brazil-presidential-election/">re-elected in 2014</a> by even a wider margin than in 2010. </p>
<h2>Grim road ahead</h2>
<p>But things have deteriorated. With the economy now in full recession – <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/825d275254034a9ea0512cb025dde203/brazils-economy-shrinks-nearly-4-percent">shrinking by almost 4% last year</a> – and no indications of improvement on the horizon, not only has the disenchantment widened, but some sectors of the population appear to have rediscovered mass demonstrations as a political mechanism. At the same time, with her <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazilian-presidents-approval-rating-hits-record-low-1438856390">popularity reaching record lows</a>, the anti-corruption stance of Rousseff seems to have backfired, as new revelations continue to dog her administration. </p>
<p>In 2014, the <a href="http://arte.folha.uol.com.br/poder/operacao-lava-jato/">Petrolão (Car Wash) scandal</a>, which involved a money-laundering scheme around Petrobras, South America’s biggest oil company, implicated more than 40 politicians from the PT and allied parties, including ministers, governors and senators as well as high executives and business people.</p>
<p>On March 9 the former construction mogul Marcelo Odebrecht, was <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/f2ab3bfc-e584-11e5-ac45-5c039e797d1c">sentenced to 19 years in prison</a> for his involvement – and no one expects his to be the last head to roll. It has also been announced that, for the first time, Lula is going to be <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-34431934">officially questioned</a>. </p>
<p>The latest protests thus differ from previous ones as they assume an explicit anti-Rousseff and anti-PT orientation, taking place in the big urban centres where the PT, Lula and Rousseff have very few friends. And this time opposition parties and the conservative media smell blood and are openly accusing the government and calling for mass mobilisation of protesters. </p>
<p>With no election in sight – which would perhaps channel these tensions and limited resources and appeal to discipline her reluctant allies – Rousseff’s position is precarious. On March 17, when she <a href="http://ultimosegundo.ig.com.br/politica/2016-03-17/a-gritaria-dos-golpistas-nao-vai-me-tirar-do-rumo-afirma-dilma.html">announced Lula as her new chief of staff</a>, triggering yet another round of demonstrations, she went on the attack, claiming that: “the shouting of the pro-coup supporters will not take me off course”. Less than an hour after this announcement a federal judge issued an injunction suspending Lula’s appointment, which created yet more havoc. The release of tapped telephone conversations, including <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/17/release-tapped-phone-calls-lula-rousseff-deepens-brazil-chaos">one between Rousseff and Lula</a>, which seemed to suggest that she had appointed him to her cabinet to spare him from arrest for corruption, have inflamed tensions even further.</p>
<p>Rousseff’s options are now limited and largely dependent on three factors beyond her direct control. She needs her party and allies to stand by her and block the impeachment process. She can’t afford for any further corruptions revelations to come directly her way. And perhaps most of all, her position is going to depend on whether she can mobilise her supporters. </p>
<p>This is the key question: after more than a decade of PT rule, a movement-friendly government that brought significant benefits to the working sectors, where are Rousseff’s supporters?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56477/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alejandro Milcíades Peña does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The administration of Dilma Rousseff is caught in a rapidly accelerating cycle of discontent.Alejandro Milcíades Peña, Lecturer in International Politics, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/319322014-09-30T05:26:44Z2014-09-30T05:26:44ZTension mounts in Brazilian election as first round looms<p>After a long and spectacular campaign, the world’s fourth-largest democracy will take one of two very different paths – but even in the very last stages of the campaign, it’s impossible to confidently predict which.</p>
<p>The first round of Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for October 5; but because no candidate looks guaranteed to get over 50% in that vote, there will probably be a second round between the top two candidates three weeks later, on October 26. </p>
<p>The two principal candidates are <a href="http://www.forbes.com/profile/dilma-rousseff/">Dilma Rousseff</a> of the ruling Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, or PT), whose coalition has been in power at the Federal level for 12 years, and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/she-wanted-to-be-a-nun-now-she-could-be-brazils-next-president/2014/09/06/8650f602-3439-11e4-8f02-03c644b2d7d0_story.html">Marina Silva</a> of the Brazilian Socialist Party (Partido Socialista Brasileiro, or PSB).</p>
<p>Marina in fact helped found the PT, in her home state of Acre, but left the party in 2009 after serving as the Minister of Environment in the Federal government. She became the candidate of the PSB when her running-mate Eduardo Silva was <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-28865958">killed in a plane crash</a> on August 13.</p>
<p>Dilma and Marina are <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/brazil-election-poll-shows-silva-rousseff-tied-1410533783">technically tied</a> in second-round simulations; the difference between the numbers each receives is less than the polls’ margin of error. The choice between them throws up a complex array of issues, trade-offs, and uncertainties – and the outlook for both their post-election plans is hard to gauge.</p>
<h2>Going south</h2>
<p>Brazil’s economy is now in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28982555">recession</a>, and GDP growth this year is projected to be close to zero.</p>
<p>Like other emerging economies, Brazil has benefited from the commodities boom of the last decade, selling vast quantities of iron ore and soybeans to vast new import customers such as China. But the boom also strengthened the currency, which in turn made industrial exports less competitive.</p>
<p>Domestic policies aggravated this structural problem: automatic increases in the minimum wage drove up the cost of services and fuelled inflation, while spending in areas such as pensions expanded the size of the fiscal deficit. </p>
<p>In the wake of the 2008-9 financial crisis, the Brazilian government also sought to protect selected industries through tax breaks, subsidised credit, and other measures that were costly, poorly planned, and not entirely transparent. The government also held down prices for electricity and petrol in order to combat inflation. </p>
<p>Critics argue that the Brazilian growth model <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2014/02/brazils-economy">has to be modified</a>, and that major reforms, including a simplification of the tax system, have to be enacted in 2015.</p>
<h2>Staying the course</h2>
<p>President Dilma’s team has argued that if she is re-elected, she can and will overcome the present difficulties. They point to a global slowdown, and argue that the economy is not in fact in crisis. With a gradual devaluation of the Brazilian currency, a reigning in of government spending, and the arrival of a new Minister of Finance in January, they argue, jobs, salaries, and growth (predicted to be around 1% in 2015) will be protected.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, for all those who don’t want another term for Dilma, either because they are unsatisfied with her personal leadership or are opposed to four more years of a PT Federal government, Marina represents change. She claims to represent a “new politics”; the signs are that she is garnering support from the undecided, as well as people dissatisfied with conventional politics. </p>
<p>Brazil has already had a worrying glimpse into how deep that dissatisfaction runs: in June-July 2013, the country was rocked with large-scale protests that were hostile to established political parties and the perceived corruption of the political establishment and demanded better quality public services. </p>
<h2>Cleaning up</h2>
<p>Marina is seen as personally honest; she might benefit from the recent disclosure of a major case of corruption involving the oil company <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-29097734">Petrobrás</a>, partially owned by the state.</p>
<p>She has promised to marry the economic orthodoxy of the government of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002) of the PSDB (Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira or Brazilian Social Democratic Party) with the redistributive zeal of the PT and its former President Lula (2002-2010) as well as Dilma. </p>
<p>Marina claims to want to break out of the party polarisation of the last 20 years and form a cabinet that draws from both the PSDB and PT. An environmentalist, she wants more investment in new forms of renewable energy, such as wind and solar, and wants to do more to reduce deforestation. For this reason, she is viewed with suspicion by Brazil’s hugely powerful agribusiness interests. </p>
<p>Intensely religious and socially conservative, Marina provokes some mistrust among some people in the educated middle class who think that she is not progressive enough on <a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Brazilian-Elections-Marina-Silva-Opposes-Gay-Marriage-20140831-0015.html">civil unions for gays</a> (legal in Brazil) and abortion (<a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/features/2014/5/brazil-s-abortionnightmare.html">largely illegal</a>). </p>
<p>Some others might be prejudiced against her because of her social origins: her hardscrabble upbringing in the remote forests of Acre could be seen as insufficiently “presidential” by voters with more traditional and elitist ideas about who is entitled to lead the country.</p>
<h2>Covering all bases</h2>
<p>If, as is currently predicted, Dilma and Marina have to fight a second round, the test will be whether the Brazilian electorate’s desire for change outweighs its comfort with the status quo. </p>
<p>Dilma’s supporters claim that a Marina government would represent a return to the Cardoso era, and that while economic orthodoxy will be good for the financial sector and investors, it could also drive up unemployment. </p>
<p>To the so-called <a href="http://www.npr.org/2013/09/18/223801516/what-does-it-mean-to-be-middle-class-in-brazil">Class C</a>, the middle-income voters living on family incomes of R$1,000 (£258) to R$4,000 (£1,034), they say that recent gains in standard of living are more secure under PT than they would be with the opposition.</p>
<p>Conversely, Marina’s advisers clearly believe that the public’s appetite for change, as expressed in last year’s massive protests, is ravenous enough that most voters will ultimately reject the current government. To signal a break from politics as usual, she has pledged that if elected, she would not seek re-election in 2018.</p>
<p>But her campaign is also making a play for entrenched interests: to reassure business about her economic liberalism, Marina is pledging to reinforce the independence of the Central Bank (albeit without much explanation of how she’ll do it). </p>
<p>As pollsters are discovering, it’s next to impossible to predict how the vote will go. Many Brazilians would prefer a different set of leading candidates; it may be that Dilma still has a slight natural edge, an incumbent in a region where incumbents <a href="http://www.panoramas.pitt.edu/content/incumbents-remain-power-latin-america">almost always win re-election</a>. </p>
<p>Whatever transpires, the home stretch of the campaign is sure to be as fascinating as all that’s gone before. And on October 26, we will finally find out what kind of change Brazilian voters really want.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31932/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Pereira does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a long and spectacular campaign, the world’s fourth-largest democracy will take one of two very different paths – but even in the very last stages of the campaign, it’s impossible to confidently…Anthony Pereira, Director, King's Brazil Institute, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/289392014-07-14T10:54:07Z2014-07-14T10:54:07ZThe World Cup – an exercise in soft power that did not go to plan for Brazil<p>The World Cup has come to an end and what a mixed bag it was for Brazil. Central to Brazil’s desire to host the World Cup was the opportunity to showcase their economic achievements to the world and enhance the country’s prestige and visibility. </p>
<p>They certainly succeeded in drawing the world’s attention to them, but not always for good reason. From <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/brazil-protests">protests</a> at the start to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-psychology-behind-brazils-semi-final-downward-spiral-29003">humiliating defeats</a> at the finish, the spotlight has not always been positive. But the tournament has also been celebrated as <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/10963666/World-Cup-2014-Was-this-the-greatest-tournament-of-all-Yes.html">one of the best ever</a> for the great games and this reflects well on the hosts.</p>
<p>Clearly the idea that mega sporting events can be used as catalysts for social development and to pursue specific foreign policy objectives has taken hold. A slew of recent major tournaments have been held by the leading emergent countries known as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). There was the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, the 2010 Commonwealth Games in Delhi and the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. Putting on the World Cup and the forthcoming 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil joins Mexico, Germany and the US in a select group of countries that have held these two mega-events within a two-year period.</p>
<p>Considering these events were previously the preserve of developed countries, their staging in the BRICS economies is significant and arguably a marker of the emerging world order.</p>
<p>Underlying this analysis is the concept of <a href="http://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=sFNfYvNtw5AC&oi=fnd&pg=PR9&dq=joseph+nye+soft+power&ots=7rRYj76aQp&sig=V-nIg9KKSQBJGjJcxJT3-z9bEHc#v=onepage&q=joseph%20nye%20soft%20power&f=false">soft power</a>, a term coined by Joseph S Nye to describe a nation’s ability to attract and persuade without force or coercion. Sports diplomacy is where sport provides an informal platform for dialogue and building trust between nations. </p>
<p>The sports arena can also be used to highlight a country’s increased economic growth, and to enhance Brazil’s image as an emerging power with relative diplomatic importance that is able to challenge the established world order. Hosting the World Cup, as an opportunity to display its strength on and off the pitch, was therefore part of Brazil’s ambition to be accepted as an active participant on the global stage.</p>
<h2>Overturning stereotypes</h2>
<p>The Brazilian stereotype is one of carnival, samba, and passion. The country is synonymous with the “beautiful game”, conjuring up images of the famous yellow and green shirts, and an aesthetically pleasing brand of football that has contributed to five World Cup successes. In many ways these stereotypes were <a href="https://theconversation.com/world-cup-humiliation-gives-brazil-a-chance-to-move-on-from-football-29004">overturned for the better</a>. But memories of the home nation’s final performances – embarrassing defeats at the hands of Germany and the Netherlands – will arguably tarnish its rich football history. </p>
<p>Hosting the 2014 World Cup catapulted the country into the global spotlight, providing a unique opportunity to showcase Brazil as an emerging economic power, as well as projecting desired images and messages to the rest of the world. The month long spectacle of the World Cup however needs to be viewed alongside an alternative storyline, one of social injustice, corruption, missed deadlines and frenetic last-minute preparations. </p>
<h2>Accompanying risks</h2>
<p>There are no guarantees of a favourable return on the binge of public infrastructure spending, nor should staging the FIFA World Cup and the Olympics in 2016 be perceived as a shortcut to enhancing a country’s reputation. The stark reality to the tournament’s build-up was marred by discontent, opposition and civil unrest. </p>
<p>Widespread demonstrations highlighted a range of problems in Brazil, including issues of governance and inefficiency, displacement, socioeconomic inequality and unnecessary public spending (this is the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/101750395">most expensive World Cup</a> in the history of the tournament). Question marks also remain over Brazil’s relaxed attitude to planning, intensified by reports at the start of the tournament questioning the preparedness of stadiums and Rio’s preparations being <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/29/rio-2016-olympic-preparations-worst-ever-ioc">damned by the IOC as the “worst ever”</a>. </p>
<p>Given the extent to which soft power has dominated the rhetoric of emerging states’ attempts to host international sports mega-events, the spotlight on Brazil is likely to remain for some time. The historic 7-1 collapse of Luiz Felipe Scolari’s side against the new football royalty, Germany, will not be quickly forgotten. Plus, the level of domestic discord regarding the priority placed on the tournament in spite of so many other pressing concerns, is unlikely to be diluted in the long-term, especially as preparations for Rio 2016 continue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28939/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hindley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The World Cup has come to an end and what a mixed bag it was for Brazil. Central to Brazil’s desire to host the World Cup was the opportunity to showcase their economic achievements to the world and enhance…David Hindley, Senior Lecturer in Sports Education, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/288692014-07-08T14:09:28Z2014-07-08T14:09:28ZWorld Cup protests reveal how much Brazilian politics has changed<p>The 2014 World Cup and the Confederations Cup before it have acted as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazil-world-cup-protests-stir-painful-memories-of-oppression-26986">catalyst for discontent</a> being expressed by a broad sector of Brazilian society that feels indignant about the money spent on these sporting events rather than on improving education and health. As the tournament has progressed, there has been a quietening of activity on the streets, but it would be short-sighted to dismiss the significance of the protests that marred the start of the World Cup. Indeed, the nature of the demonstrations and those involved marks a significant shift in Brazilian politics.</p>
<p>Until recently it was the Brazilian Workers’ Party, together with the central unions and social movement organisations, who were at the forefront of protest in Brazil. But, now that they are in government, the anti-World Cup demonstrations caught them on the back foot. This public break between those in power and some of their traditional supporters is unlikely to be significant in the coming presidential elections, but likely to have an impact on political life in Brazil in the coming years. It undermines the Workers Party’s dominance of the Brazilian left, based as it has been on an opposition to privatisation and reductions in public spending.</p>
<p>Civil society in Brazil has been highly mobilised since the transition to democracy in 1985, thanks in great part to the contribution of the Workers’ Party. The demonstrations that we saw in the build up to the World Cup therefore shouldn’t be seen as a new phenomenon. It is also not new for the Brazilian urban, middle-class sectors to participate in mass public demonstrations: in 1992, for example, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1992/09/20/world/huge-rally-demands-brazil-chief-s-impeachment.html">many mobilised to demand the impeachment of President Collor de Mello</a>. </p>
<p>Previously, students were the main driving force of these carefully choreographed and successful demonstrations. But, unlike the demonstration against Collor, the current wave of social protest contains a more eclectic ideological diversity that gives it a distinct character.</p>
<h2>Rising discontent</h2>
<p>With the hosting of global sporting events, national identities tend to undergo a moment of reflexivity as a result of international exposure. This feeling overlaps with political necessity, which can then be exploited by Brazilian trade unions and political opposition parties – as is currently happening. The police of Bahia state, for example, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-27074277">staged one of the biggest police strikes ever recorded</a> in Brazil. More than 130 people were killed in various crimes while the police withdrew from their duties. The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-27582163">teachers’ union also seized the opportunity</a> to strike for better pay, and during a demonstration managed to stop the coach transporting the Brazilian national football team, winning publicity for their cause and in turn favourable conditions to negotiate. </p>
<p>The scale, composition and ultimately the political consequences of the June protests set them apart. On June 6 approximately 2,000 people gathered in São Paulo to <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21579857-bubbling-anger-about-high-prices-corruption-and-poor-public-services-boils-over">protest against an increase in the bus fare</a>. The meeting had been called by the Free Pass Movement, a social organisation whose main objective is to generate awareness about the importance of making public transport a public good, like health and education. What followed was a spectacular uprising nobody expected. By June 17, thousands of Brazilians were demonstrating in every major city of the country, including Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre and Belo Horizonte – all World Cup host cities. On June 20 protests spread like wildfire to all major and middle-size cities. Since then, protests continued but became more localised, less spontaneous and more organised.</p>
<p>By the time the government rolled-back the rise in bus fares it was too late. Protesters demanded more public investment to improve the health system, wider public transport and the education system. They were also protesting against police brutality in dealing with demonstrators, corruption at the hands of government officials, and FIFA’s ability to take over the public policy agenda.</p>
<h2>Political implications</h2>
<p>It is difficult to predict how this mobilisation will translate into electoral representation since it includes protesters and organisations from the far-left as well as from the far-right. What was initially a homogeneous issue-based demonstration, turned into a nationwide wave of social mobilisation, a heterogeneous movement in which activists and non-activists have found a common ground to voice their discontent. </p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/03/us-brazil-election-idUSKBN0F807420140703">opinion polls</a>, the demonstrations seem to be having a limited immediate effect on the outcome of October’s presidential elections in which Dilma Rousseff is likely to be re-elected president. The protest will, however, have much wider political implications because they show the Workers’ Party cannot rely on support from the social movements from which it once was integral to and from which it gathered most of its transformative grassroots strength. </p>
<p>Over the past two decades, the Workers’ Party has forged its space in Brazilian politics in what could generally be called the “struggles against neoliberalism”. It had solidarity with other political organisations and social movements such as the <a href="http://www.grassrootsonline.org/where-we-work/brazil/landless-workers-movement-mst">Landless Workers Movement</a> and in doing so defined what the left meant in Brazil. </p>
<p>But this narrative has entered a moment of crisis as a result of the anti-World Cup social protests. New demands and new groups have interrupted the public sphere, calling for their voiced to be heard. They no longer identify with the Workers’ Party, either because they have never believed their politics or because they feel betrayed by their actions in the build-up to the World Cup. And they are prepared to say this on the streets, in large numbers. </p>
<p>The overwhelming support of Brazil’s poorest is not going to be enough for the Workers’ Party to prevent the closure of its existing narrative, which has been fundamental to their 11-year reign. It is the first observable and significant political effect of the rebellion at the World Cup. A new consensus is in the making but its ideological content is yet unclear, precisely because it is currently being disputed. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Juan Pablo Ferrero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The 2014 World Cup and the Confederations Cup before it have acted as a catalyst for discontent being expressed by a broad sector of Brazilian society that feels indignant about the money spent on these…Juan Pablo Ferrero, Lecturer in Latin American Studies, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/287942014-07-07T09:46:45Z2014-07-07T09:46:45ZGreener, wealthier, happier: how Brazil has changed since 1950<p>It was a fearsome blow. It was the first World Cup after World War II, on home soil, and the country was desperate for international recognition. Brazil reached the final, only to lose 2-1 in a shock defeat to Uruguay. The match has forever been known as <a href="http://sites.duke.edu/wcwp/world-cup-2014/world-cup-2014-fan-guide/anglophone-version/the-1950-world-cup-brazilian-tragedy/">the Maracanazo</a> – it was a national tragedy.</p>
<p>Now, 64 years later, Brazil is hosting the World Cup once more and the country has developed at a remarkable pace. With the eyes of the world on it once more, expectations are vast. The tragic <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-28155216">collapse of the bridge in Belo Horizonte</a> shows just how quickly views of a host country can change. But it’s worth looking back at Brazil’s economic development and the significant strides it has taken.</p>
<h2>Growing economy</h2>
<p>Since 1950, Brazil has grown to become the <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/brazil/overview">seventh largest economy in the world</a>, ahead of Italy and just behind the UK. <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.pcap.cd?order=wbapi_data_value_2013+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc">Per capita GDP</a> in Brazil is just above US$11,000 per year, almost twice that of China, and seven times more than in India. </p>
<p>Brazilians have <a href="http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/brazil/">higher life satisfaction</a> than would be predicted for this level of income. Much lower life satisfaction occurs in South Africa, Iran and Azerbaijan where income per person is the same. And, compared to the UK and USA, where GDP is 3.5 and 4.5 times greater, life satisfaction is about the same. All that extra wealth <a href="https://theconversation.com/riches-wont-make-you-happy-but-a-greener-economy-might-26075">has not made us happier</a>.</p>
<h2>Green and gold</h2>
<p>Brazil is also greener. In 1950, the football team played in white shirts and these were tossed away in embarrassment. They took up gold and green colours. In countries earning US$11,000 per person, carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere are predicted to be <a href="Http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-013-9680-9">4.4 tonnes per person</a>. Yet in Brazil emissions are only <a href="Http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/en.atm.co2e.pc?order=wbapi_data_value_2010+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc">2.2 tonnes per person</a>. </p>
<p>By comparison, the UK is far more carbon intensive, producing almost <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/en.atm.co2e.pc?order=wbapi_data_value_2010+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc">four times the carbon per person</a>. China emits three times more per capita than Brazil, the USA and Australia about eight times. The proportion of energy generation in Brazil that is renewable is a <a href="http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/factbook-2013-en/06/01/05/index.html?itemId=/content/chapter/factbook-2013-45-en">remarkable 46%</a>, due both to <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-the-world-cup-brazilians-are-protesting-about-27770">extensive hydropower</a> and immense use of <a href="http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=br">biofuels in vehicles</a>. </p>
<p>Atmospheric carbon concentrations now exceed <a href="http://350.org/about/science/">400 parts per million</a>: a safe operating space for humanity would be to revert back to 350 ppm. But this needs emissions to fall to 1.1 tonnes per person. Even the relatively green are not green enough. And, despite its relatively green economy, Brazil remains highly reliant on exporting primary commodities.</p>
<h2>Money well spent?</h2>
<p>All countries make policy decisions on where to spend their resources. Both Angola and Equatorial Guinea are oil rich, with rapidly growing per capita GDP, yet they have appalling <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sh.dyn.mort?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc">under-five mortality rates of over 100 per 1000 births</a>. Brazil has invested in health care and has reduced under-five mortality to 14, about the same as China. In Europe and North America, these are now at about 4-5, though the USA is the highest of the affluent countries at 7. India is the fastest-growing of the BRIC countries, yet its under-five mortality is a worrying 56 per 1000 births.</p>
<p>Brazil has much land, huge primary resources of minerals, forests and agriculture, yet vast cities. It is in both rural and urban contexts that the pressures of progress are growing. The Amazon rainforest is a vital global resource, both as a store of biodiversity and as a source of oxygen and sink for carbon. It is also important locally, home to indigenous people but is an easily combusted forest. </p>
<p><a href="http://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/amazon_destruction.html">Land clearance</a>, often for soya plantations, was running at more than 20,000 square kilometres per year until the world economic slowdown: now it is less than 7000 sq km. But Brazil still sells its family silver to fuel an economic boom based largely on exports of iron and steel, grain and meat, oil, machinery and hides. Its greatest buyer, <a href="http://www.laht.com/article.asp?articleid=333733&categoryid=10718">China</a>, is increasing its economic output by adding value to primary products.</p>
<h2>Problems to address</h2>
<p>The other pressure is in the cities, and here Brazil has problems. Safety is very poor, the <a href="http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/brazil/">worst in the OECD Life Index</a> and there are 50,000 homicides per year or 137 each day. The gap between the wealthy and the poor is persistently wide, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/dec/05/oecd-ineqaulity-report-uk-us">as in all BRIC countries</a>, with Brazil’s income <a href="http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/factbook-2013-en/03/02/01/index.html?itemId=/content/chapter/factbook-2013-25-en">Gini coefficient</a> (a measure of income distribution inequality) at over 50 – high for even the developing world. <a href="http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/brazil/130111/brazil-education-income-inequality">Educational inequality</a> is also poor in Brazil and cuts a racial divide. </p>
<p>It is these social inequalities that fuel the <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/brazil-protests">continuing protests</a> against the World Cup. If left unaddressed, they will threaten Brazil’s relatively greener and healthier economy. </p>
<p>A successful World Cup has the power to bring great joy to Brazil and, though it’s not been perfect, Brazil has come along way since 1950 in showing the world that they can host a global tournament. Social gaps will remain whatever the outcome, however, and natural capital will continue to be depleted unless new approaches are taken. </p>
<p>These are problems are not unique to Brazil – they are becoming universal. Indeed, in light of its development to date, Brazil could be better placed than many to find progress towards greener and healthier economies that persist and work for all the population. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28794/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steffen Böhm has received funding from the ESRC, British Academy, the East of England Cooperative Society and the Green Light Trust.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jules Pretty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It was a fearsome blow. It was the first World Cup after World War II, on home soil, and the country was desperate for international recognition. Brazil reached the final, only to lose 2-1 in a shock defeat…Jules Pretty, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Professor of Environment and Society, University of EssexSteffen Böhm, Professor in Management and Sustainability, and Director, Essex Sustainability Institute, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/281612014-07-04T04:54:36Z2014-07-04T04:54:36ZThe colourful reality of Brazilian society – it’s more than football and samba<p>In the run up to the World Cup, the scene depicted in Brazil by the international press was split between two simple narratives. On one hand: disaster, with protests against the tournament gaining <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-27599430">much publicity</a>. On <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jefffick/2014/06/19/soccer-fans-turn-brazil-world-cup-into-giant-beach-party/">the other</a>: football lovers, semi-naked women on beaches and corrupt millionaire elites versus shanty town dwellers. This is despite Brazil’s three decades of a gradual democratisation and rise to the position of the world’s seventh wealthiest economy. Suffice to say, this has contributed to a more complex situation.</p>
<p>The Brazilian press also provided their share of “colonial” images of European foreigners dazzled by a tropical country and a friendly people: the German footballer Miroslav Klose for instance appeared <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/news/police-arrows-indians-dance-klose-200524329--sow.html">dancing alongside 20 members of the indigenous tribe Pataxo de Coroa Vermelha</a>, in the southern state of Bahia. Meanwhile, there was also an obsession with providing images of buses on fire and angry poor people screaming in foreign press.</p>
<p>The negative coverage reflected to some extent the mood of disillusionment and anger of Brazilians at excessive government spending. The tournament <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/05/uk-brazil-worldcup-infrastructure-idUKKBN0EG24F20140605">cost US$11.3 billion</a> to stage, dwarfing the amount invested in public transport, hospitals and schools in a country where citizens pay high taxes and money is badly spent by the state. But the black and white narratives are slowly making room for more sophisticated analyses of Brazilian society. </p>
<h2>Democratisation and media expansion</h2>
<p>Many Brazilians are trying to break free from both oppressive global structures (for example FIFA who are estimated to to make a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/fifa-profit-world-cup-2014-6">profit of US$2.6 billion</a> from the tournament) and local powers, among others the state police authorities who crack down on protesters. The growth of the internet as a political blogosphere and social media has facilitated their protests and a wider understanding of the roots of Brazil’s structural inequalities.</p>
<p>This started before the notorious <a href="https://theconversation.com/theyve-won-the-battle-of-the-buses-but-the-struggle-for-brazils-future-goes-on-15390">June 2013 demonstrations</a> and has very much been a consequence of both political democratisation and an ongoing diversification of the media since the 1990s. This has included online media, with sites from different under-represented groups, many of whom are slowly gaining a voice and debating various issues in the blogosphere, from balance in journalism, to public services and political reform of the party system. </p>
<p>Many citizens have taken advantage of the world stage to express anxiety for a better future with a “FIFA standard” of public services. This includes not just more political participation, but also demands for a more democratic and better quality media. Thus the world has seen the tube strikers in Sao Paulo and various other smaller but not less significant protests. </p>
<p>In the run up to the presidential elections in October 2014, where the re-election of Dilma Rousseff is cast in a shadow of doubt, the question that seems to be on everybody’s lips is less who will win the World Cup, but rather where will we go from here?</p>
<h2>More nuanced views</h2>
<p>In the last year, Brazil’s media coverage has shifted from condemning demonstrators on the basis of a law and order framework, to providing more balanced coverage that underlines the legitimacy of their demands. In doing so, the media is better serving its citizens. The success of online citizen journalism coverage and alternative media outlets such as <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/29/brazil-ninja-reporters-stories-streets">Midia Ninja</a> has played a large role in pressuring the mainstream to take this more balanced view.</p>
<p>Abroad, too, newspapers have correctly explored some of the roots of all the anxiety. Even tabloids like the <a href="http://www.dailystar.co.uk/world-cup-2014/379115/World-Cup-Riots-Brazil-in-chaos-as-protestors-cripple-city-just-27-days-before-kick-off">Daily Star</a> have pointed out the mix of security measures (57,000 military personnel were deployed), FIFA corruption and the lack of enthusiasm of many Brazilians, including the displacement of 200,000 from their homes due to construction work. Another highlight from The Guardian was the story on the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/10/world-cup-protesters-fifa-demand-reform">reasons to root for the protesters</a>. Thus a key legacy of the protests seems to have been their capacity to contribute to changes in perception, and a more (positive) sympathetic understanding of a whole people. </p>
<p>In spite of the progress it has made, the mainstream Brazilian media remains highly politicised and concentrated. It is represented by organisations such as Globo and Folha de Sao Paulo, which have shown some signs of improvement in terms of professionalism in the last decades. </p>
<p>Critics argue that they have been using the protests and the World Cup for political gain, being quick to point out the delays in airports and stadiums whilst ignoring FIFA’s impositions as well as their own profit with the event. Globo TV for instance has a monopoly over the transmission of events and it was at the centre of the July 2013 protests, which among others also saw protesters demand media democratisation alongside quality public services. They have also accused other media of trying to undermine President Rousseff’s government, and gain support for the opposition in the coming October elections.</p>
<h2>Mixed blessings</h2>
<p>The World Cup in all of this is proving to be a mixed blessing. On the one hand it has exposed the fragility of Brazil’s democracy, its levels of corruption and the lack of preparation before the World Cup, affecting its image and claims to “superpower” status. On a more positive note, it is contributing to changing perceptions, underlining the growing political and social consciousness of its people. After all, this is a country that has seen rapid advancements in recent years: a middle class now composed of 108 million people, with extreme levels of poverty falling down to 6% of the population. </p>
<p>Other changes include the approval of the <a href="http://www.insideprivacy.com/international/brazil-enacts-marco-civil-internet-civil-rights-bill/">internet draft bill</a>, which safeguards net neutrality and freedom of expression – and which is being seen as a model for other countries. There have also been further discussions on media reform, anticipated to occur in the coming year. </p>
<p>Changes have been slow, making it evident that it is more deep-rooted problems that are a cause for concern. These include political corruption, police repression, concentrated mainstream media and a lack of a serious commitment to quality public services like education and healthcare, not to mention a better debate in the public sphere on these crucial needs. </p>
<p>These are the real tools for long-term development, and not just the minerals and other products that are currently being devoured by China. Only time will tell what the legacy of the World Cup will be. But what is emerging is a new Brazil, a more complex and fascinating one that is not passive and is pushing forward for more change and equality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28161/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carolina Matos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the run up to the World Cup, the scene depicted in Brazil by the international press was split between two simple narratives. On one hand: disaster, with protests against the tournament gaining much…Carolina Matos, Lecturer in Sociology, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/282412014-07-04T04:51:43Z2014-07-04T04:51:43ZBrazil’s protests were put down, but there is still time for some late action
<p>The decision to host the World Cup caused significant conflict among Brazilians. This issue was, of course, not about the football itself, but over the arrangements that are necessary to host such a huge tournament. And, even since the exciting tournament kicked off, attitudes remain conflicted toward our role as hosts.</p>
<p>As the massive demonstrations that took place a year before the tournament started showed, the discontent relating to the World Cup has been against the astronomical amount of public money spent on the construction of stadiums and supporting infrastructure such as airports, roads and railway systems. The official government line has emphasised the significance that this legacy will bring Brazil, the defence being that the infrastructure from the tournament will last long after the tourists have left Brazil.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the government has played upon and reinforced the stereotype of the kind and hospitable Brazilian, in an effort to get people to fulfil this role as the good host. This came into full force in the days leading up to the tournament (as protests around the country hotted up too). If you turned on the TV or picked up a mainstream paper in Brazil you would have found the familiar image of cheerful, attractive young people celebrating the World Cup and the country’s passion for the game of football. These images have been the staple of the tournament’s merchandisers and raft of FIFA’s sponsors.</p>
<h2>Contradictory feelings</h2>
<p>But, despite this barrage of messaging from above, Brazilians’ contradictory feelings towards hosting the tournament have been made clear in the continuing strikes that have taken place. The build up to the tournament in particular saw a vast number of protests take place across the country and public sectors: school teachers, bus drivers and subway workers. Some of these strikes, as the one that took place in São Paulo the week before the first match, were repressed with particular violence by the military police.</p>
<p>The security measures to prevent demonstrations before the inauguration match in São Paulo were huge and the few protesters who managed to gather were kept miles away from the stadium and far from the worldwide TV audience. Nevertheless, during the match, President Dilma Rousseff was <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-27841356">booed by the stadium’s Brazilian audience</a>, provoking discomfort in the authorities’ cabin and picked up by TV cameras to travel the world.</p>
<p>Meanwhile politicians and some intellectuals from different parties and political orientations claim that these protesting movements are opportunistic and unpatriotic, since they can harm the tournament and the country’s international image. Even the jeers in the stadium to President Rousseff was considered to be just the expression of a privileged elite that do not really represent the whole population. </p>
<p>Since the tournament began, the World Cup has proved really interesting in terms of the football and done the job of entertaining crowds. Comparatively, the protests have been countered by the military police with military support. The most important exception until now was the massive demonstration in São Paulo on June 19 to celebrate the first anniversary of the demonstrations that started the hottest period of protests across Brazil. Once again, Paulista Avenue was the main stage, with some radical protesters using aggressive black bloc tactics.</p>
<p>Until now the combination of security forces’ ubiquitous presence, police repression, dissemination of the government’s view of the tournament and the high quality of the matches have been a successful formula to guarantee the management of this multibillion dollar business called the FIFA World Cup.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, FIFA’s well-known hunger for profits reveals itself in every staff member’s shining smile. They have had a great deal of influence in Brazil: circumventing national laws or having them changed – from selling alcoholic drinks in stadiums to the role of private security, creating exceptional rules and practices that can be an unspoken part of the so-called “World Cup legacy”.</p>
<p>And, of course, it has nothing to do with football itself: the game, the passion, the battle. Inside the field, surprising things happen as always. And the Brazil World Cup has been full of surprises on the pitch. Perhaps more are yet to emerge on the streets.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The decision to host the World Cup caused significant conflict among Brazilians. This issue was, of course, not about the football itself, but over the arrangements that are necessary to host such a huge…Thiago Rodrigues, Professor of International Relations, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/277702014-06-19T13:19:31Z2014-06-19T13:19:31ZIt’s not just the World Cup Brazilians are protesting about<p>The World Cup has highlighted Brazil’s dissatisfaction with the mega-development involved in building the tournament’s infrastructure. But the football stadiums are just the latest in a long line of Brazilian mega-developments, including building venues for the 2016 Rio Olympics, the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/03/us-brazil-dams-protest-idusbre94211820130503">Belo Monte Dam</a> and the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/1187022/brazils_cuiaba-santarem_br-163_highway_the_environmental_cost_of_paving_a_soybean_corridor_through_the_amazon">Cuiaba-Santarem Highway</a> – all of which have caused controversy. </p>
<p>The Brazilian government and private investors claim there is a need for these mega-projects. They promise they will develop rural areas, boost employment rates, add much needed infrastructure, foster economic growth and preserve energy security. But they are often controversial because they tend to benefit a small group of elites, and involve stark environmental and social impacts.</p>
<p>The term “mega-project” usually refers to an infrastructure project whose <a href="http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/publicroads/04jul/01.cfm">cost exceeds US$1 billion</a>, or that receives a significant level of public and political attention due to high monetary or environmental and social costs. For this reason, such projects must be part of a wider set of policies, which are environmentally viable and meet community expectations. </p>
<p>But scarce public trust and lack of confidence in the benefits of these projects is rife, a fact that decision makers continue to ignore. The ongoing <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/06/05/318925781/as-brazil-barrels-toward-world-cup-brazilians-arent-feeling-it">protests against the World Cup</a> is a prime example of this. So too are the <a href="http://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/belo-monte-dam">controversies around the Belo Monte Dam</a>, a huge hydroelectric dam complex the government is building on the Xingu River in Brazil’s north. So, what are the problems with these mega-development projects?</p>
<h2>The costs</h2>
<p>First, there are grave environmental costs that are often unaccounted for. The Belo Monte Dam, for example, is a mega-project with severe ecological consequences as the development involves flooding of over 1,500 km<sup>2</sup> of Amazon rainforest. This kind of severe flooding of the Xingu River basin <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/feb/02/brazil-amazon-rainforest-hydroelectric-dam">threatens to damage</a> one of the world’s most rich and fragile ecosystems. </p>
<p>There are also a range of social and human rights concerns involved. The building of the Belo Monte Dam is displacing entire communities, for example indigenous people living by the Xingu River. This community of up to 40,000 people was <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/aug/16/belo-monte-dam-construction-suspended">not consulted on the project</a>, as is required under international law. This is a particularly serious breach, considering that the area is legally protected for conservation purposes and the preservation of indigenous livelihoods within the Xingu National Park.</p>
<p>These mega-projects are rarely effective and often don’t reach their stated objectives. The Belo Monte Dam, for example, is unlikely to achieve its goal of preserving energy security for the growing Brazilian population. The seasonal flow variation of the Xingu River suggests that during high flow the Belo Monte will produce <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21577073-having-spent-heavily-make-worlds-third-biggest-hydroelectric-project-greener-brazil">only 40% of its energy capacity, and barely 10% during the dry months</a>.</p>
<p>Given the extraordinary amount of often public funding involved with mega-projects, there is a lot of public concern over corruption, crime and <a href="http://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-politics/rios-military-police-most-corrupt/">police extortion</a>. For example, there is now <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2014/05/brazil-audit-shows-corrupt-world-cup-costs-201451263240585772.html">evidence of corruption</a>, involving companies that have built the “white elephant” stadiums for the World Cup. Plus, the methods used to make way for the Belo Monte Dam’s construction <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bianca-jagger/the-belo-monte-dam-an-env_b_1614057.html">have been questioned</a>, as they don’t seem to have the public interest at heart. No wonder why Brazilians’ anger is bubbling over onto the streets.</p>
<p>Most of the above problems have been <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?gcoi=80140100207580">known for some time</a>. But Brazil cannot resist the temptation of constructing more football stadiums, large dams, highways and other infrastructure. And, despite professing to bring benefits to the wider country, there is evidence that the many large scale infrastructure projects begun by former President Lula’s <a href="http://www.coha.org/lula%e2%80%99s-brazilian-growth-acceleration-program-the-best-that-government-funding-can-buy/">Accelerated Growth Programme</a>, mostly enrich small groups of corporate elites.</p>
<h2>The benefits</h2>
<p>Large infrastructure projects are often very lucrative, as the public purse – in the name of development, growth and progress – pumps large amounts of taxpayers’ money into them. The cost for the Belo Monte Dam, for example (estimated to be anything between <a href="http://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/belo-monte-dam">US$13bn and US$18bn</a>), is largely financed by BNDES, Brazil’s large national development bank, which now has loans exceeding those of the World Bank. </p>
<p>Belo Monte is <a href="http://www.power-technology.com/projects/belomontehydroelectr/">led by Norte Energia</a>, a new corporate consortium, involving the Brazilian federal power utlity Eletrobras and the mining giant Vale. Critics argue that the financing of such large-scale infrastructure projects can be seen as a massive transfer of funds from public to private hands. This has the potential to further increase social and economic inequality in Brazil, which is already among the world’s highest. </p>
<p>And then there is the question of what the power generated by the Belo Monte Dam will actually be used for. It is estimated that Eletrobras has already purchased 30% of its projected power for re-sale to <a href="http://www.internationalrivers.org/blogs/258/mining-giant-joins-belo-monte-dam">mining and other export-driven industries</a>. Brazil’s economic boom has been largely driven by <a href="http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/pubs/rp/perikgrp.pdf">energy-intensive production of primary commodities for export</a>, largely to China. Again, these export industries tend to be controlled by a small group of corporate elites. </p>
<p>It is for these reasons that there has been a lot of public opposition in Brazil to current mega-development projects – even the World Cup. People are angry that billions of dollars of public funds have been invested in projects that don’t benefit the wider community. It seems to be the corporate elites that are profiting, while funding is lacking for public services such as transport, healthcare, education, culture and employment. </p>
<p>Far greater democratic scrutiny of these ongoing mega-development projects is needed in Brazil. It’s vital that their social and environmental costs are kept to a minimum and the benefits shared by the masses – rather than just a handful of corporate elites.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steffen Böhm has received funding from the ESRC, British Academy, the East of England Cooperative Society and the Green Light Trust.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rafael Kruter Flores does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The World Cup has highlighted Brazil’s dissatisfaction with the mega-development involved in building the tournament’s infrastructure. But the football stadiums are just the latest in a long line of Brazilian…Steffen Böhm, Professor in Management and Sustainability, and Director, Essex Sustainability Institute, University of EssexRafael Kruter Flores, Lecturer in Administration and Organization Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/269862014-05-21T09:29:41Z2014-05-21T09:29:41ZBrazil World Cup protests stir painful memories of oppression<p>With less than a month to go before the FIFA World Cup, Brazil has once again been <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/16/anti-world-cup-protests-across-brazil">shaken</a> by strikes, protests, police repression, and promises of federal intervention to ensure public safety. </p>
<p>Just like the massive demonstrations of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/12/thousands-streets-brazil-protests">June and July 2013</a>, the discontent these latest demonstrations express cannot be easily summarised – neither in terms of political intention nor ideological values. </p>
<p>As the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/us-brazil-politics-rousseff-idUSBREA2Q17Y20140328">presidential election of October 2014</a> approaches, various segments of Brazilian society are voicing different kinds of dissatisfaction. Among the protesters, there are teachers campaigning for better salaries, organised movements of the homeless fighting for their rights, and anti-World Cup groups protesting against the waste of public money in the construction of multi-billion-dollar football arenas.</p>
<p>This widespread sense of discontent springs from the persistence of dire economic inequality, police brutality (including murders, disappearances, and torture), rising pressure on incomes from inflation, and the government’s failure to improve Brazil’s health and education systems.</p>
<h2>Shake-up</h2>
<p>The traditional political parties, both left and right, were shaken by the 2013 protests’ spontaneity, the depth of mistrust in institutional politics, and the protesters’ tactics, which defied the norms of political organisation. </p>
<p>The fact is that the protests have not forced a clear political response from the Brazilian government. But they have provoked unexpected reactions from the poorest members of Brazilian society, who live in slums or in peripheral and degraded urban areas. </p>
<p>Many underprivileged communities, especially those in the <a href="http://www.dw.de/violent-protest-hits-rio-favela-near-copacabana-beach-after-dancers-death/a-17584014">favelas of Rio de Janeiro</a>, have mounted constant demonstrations in the past few months, demanding fair treatment from the police and more attention from the government. </p>
<p>Human rights violations and indiscriminate violence are <a href="http://www.rioonwatch.org/?p=11007">nothing new</a> for the residents of these areas, yet their reaction to recent incidents has been more vocal and public than ever. While the 2013 demonstrations didn’t have a specific focus or earn any specific concessions from the state, they did give voice to a population that has so far seen its demands disregarded.</p>
<h2>Backlash</h2>
<p>The protests have also had unexpected consequences in the Brazilian Congress. The violence of some protesters was identified by the mass media and mainstream politicians as mere vandalism. This reinforced the idea that the “correct” way of protesting is to do so in peaceful and organised marches, as opposed to “undemocratic” ways of demonstrating discontent with violence. </p>
<p>Based on that, much of the population began to support a harsher punishment for such acts. This support was echoed in the Brazilian Congress, and a new proposition of a law against “terrorism” was presented in July 2013.</p>
<p>Despite being condemned by the national constitution, the use of “tools of terror” is not proscribed in Brazilian law, and the country has no anti-terrorism legislation currently in force. The legal definition of “terrorism” is a highly sensitive subject in Brazil, since the concept was so abused in the “dirty war” waged by the country’s military rulers against political opposition during the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-26828732">dictatorship of 1964-1985</a>. </p>
<p>That “war” was legally supported by the National Security Act of 1969; the same law quoted by some supporters of a new anti-terrorism act. Despite of the international centrality of this theme since 9/11, the debate in Brazil had been stuffy – until the demonstrations began last year.</p>
<p>To deal with them, various government spheres resorted to the National Security Act, invoking as a justification the urgency of preparing the Brazilian state to face possible public safety problems during major events, such as the World Cup and Olympic Games in 2016.</p>
<p>The term “terrorism” is highly open to interpretation, and it is telling that it could unify a large number of distinct groups, among them social organisations. It is not lost on them that a new anti-terrorism law could rehash the old practice of selective repression justified by labelling specific social groups “internal enemies”.</p>
<p>This chimes all too well with the rhetoric of the “war on terror”, with its post-9/11 suspensions of basic human rights and “exceptions” to international law. In the case of the World Cup, it is expected that the police forces will use all means necessary to stop large protests from happening, probably with the support of the armed forces.</p>
<p>That prospect was reinforced on May 15 2014, when <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-27423404">dozens of demonstrations</a> took place in Brazil’s major cities. While there was again no single cause at the root of the protests, the federal government and Rousseff herself were the main targets.</p>
<h2>Just keep smiling</h2>
<p>Rousseff has <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-22/rousseff-says-violence-embarrassing-brazil-needs-to-be-curbed.html">stated</a> that she expects Brazilians to show visiting fans the happiness and hospitality for which we are known worldwide. Meanwhile, the mass media and merchandising initiatives promote the <a href="http://www.copa2014.gov.br/en/noticia/brazilian-tourism-board-launches-international-advertising-campaign">same old image</a> of a sunny country with a beautiful, tolerant and joyful people, madly in love with football and ready to be as nice as usual. </p>
<p>This is an attempt to reaffirm the myth of “<a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/09/2012912115439858966.html">Brazilian cordiality</a>” alongside a new concept of political democracy, a model of shared responsibility between the state, non-governmental organisations and private corporations.</p>
<p>Perhaps the expected protests during the World Cup could reveal another Brazil to foreign visitors (and even to Brazilians themselves): a country of deep social, political and economic complexity, full of unpredictable potential and democratic promise, but with a population less and less willing to keep up the cheerful Carmen Miranda act of exotic beauty and foolish cordiality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26986/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thiago Rodrigues is affiliated with Ecopolitics Project (Nu-Sol/PUC-SP).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fernando Brancoli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With less than a month to go before the FIFA World Cup, Brazil has once again been shaken by strikes, protests, police repression, and promises of federal intervention to ensure public safety. Just like…Thiago Rodrigues, Professor of International Relations, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)Fernando Brancoli, Assistant Professor, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/155362013-06-26T05:47:07Z2013-06-26T05:47:07ZBrazil paying a high price as it prepares for World Cup 2014<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/26179/original/z5vrvxkj-1372182787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Maybe it's just not worth it.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Perhaps it is a matter of culture, possibly it is something to do with indifference, but sporting mega-events appear to be considerably less popular in Brazil than in the UK. Whereas a majority of the British public politely mumbled about the £10 billion cost of hosting the 2012 Olympic Games, the Brazilian public has felt compelled to <a href="https://theconversation.com/theyve-won-the-battle-of-the-buses-but-the-struggle-for-brazils-future-goes-on-15390">flood on to the streets in protest</a> at the cost of their $9 billion 2014 World Cup. </p>
<p>The comparison is, though, an unfair one; Brazil faces a “double-whammy”. The country is not just confronted by the challenges (and cost) of staging the world’s second largest sporting mega-event, it faces the almost immediate financial burden of having to stage its largest sporting mega-event too – the 2016 Olympic Games. </p>
<p>For any nation hosting such highly visible global events, it is inevitable that both the host nation and the event itself will become a conduit for countless disputes, debates and protests.</p>
<p>However, Brazil is especially significant for several reasons. It is the first World Cup since the emergence of the “Occupy” movement revolutionised the tactics and aspirations of protesters worldwide, and the country’s social media usage is vibrant and increasing. Despite a recent slowdown, rapid economic growth has raised issues ranging from equality to the governance and democracy of political processes. These sporting events are no longer just about the sport.</p>
<h2>Sport and politics</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/26183/original/jhnj7rnt-1372184869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/26183/original/jhnj7rnt-1372184869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=631&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26183/original/jhnj7rnt-1372184869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=631&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26183/original/jhnj7rnt-1372184869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=631&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26183/original/jhnj7rnt-1372184869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26183/original/jhnj7rnt-1372184869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26183/original/jhnj7rnt-1372184869.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">World Cup winning congressman Romário is now a prominent critic of the 2014 tournament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ricardo Stuckert/PR</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sport is increasingly hard to separate from politics and economics, such is the economic and financial scale of modern sporting mega-events. For instance, when Brazilian bus travellers discovered that FIFA was exempt from paying tax at the World Cup while at the same time they were being told they would have to pay higher fares, it was always going to cause problems. </p>
<p>These clashes raise some fundamental questions about the financing of sport that few countries around the world are convincingly dealing with. At the heart of the debate is one question: if a country is going to spend $9 billion, what should it spend it on and why? </p>
<p>Unfortunately, politicians (and sometimes whole nations) are easily seduced by the desire to host sporting mega-events. This means that in too many cases, bidding and hosting decisions are not based on rational, economic arguments. Rather, some spurious form of post-hoc rationalisation is typically employed, where economics is used to support decisions motivated more by political whim than anything else.</p>
<h2>Doubters and doers</h2>
<p>“The economic argument” (some might refer to this as “legacy”) has therefore risen to the forefront of debates around event bidding and hosting decisions. This has rapidly become the stuff of legend: a stand-off between the empire-builders and the naysayers. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/26182/original/8btt9zmy-1372184443.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/26182/original/8btt9zmy-1372184443.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=818&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26182/original/8btt9zmy-1372184443.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=818&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26182/original/8btt9zmy-1372184443.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=818&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26182/original/8btt9zmy-1372184443.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1028&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26182/original/8btt9zmy-1372184443.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1028&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26182/original/8btt9zmy-1372184443.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1028&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not all Brazilians dislike sporting mega-events. Here’s Pele at the 2012 Olympics, with Henry Kissinger.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Stillwell/PA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The empire-builders are typically those people and organisations that have a vested interest in the success of an event like the World Cup. These can include consultants, sponsors, suppliers, hospitality partners, even some media. For them, the bigger an event looks (at least in economic and financial terms), the better able they are to justify and explain their involvement in it.</p>
<p>This is especially the case if the sustainability of the core business in question depends on securing and successfully hosting sporting mega-events. At times, therefore, such people and organisations can be prone to making rather grandiose claims about the impact that sporting mega-events can have. </p>
<p>In the opposing corner, the naysayers often include academics and disgruntled pressure groups. They typically argue that event impacts are overestimated in the interest of big business, and that there is no compelling science to underpin the investments made in an event like the World Cup in Brazil.</p>
<p>Accurately identifying the economic impact of sporting events would require clear and consistent international standards of measurement. For the time being though, it is left for stakeholders to speculate and prevaricate, which often takes the debate in directions that are neither productive nor helpful.</p>
<h2>Economics or finance?</h2>
<p>One problem is that research often estimates event impact in financial terms rather than measuring it in more broad economic terms. This might seem like a semantic difference, but it is much more significant than that. </p>
<p>Economic costs, for instance, go far beyond the costs that a business or an accountant would ordinarily factor into an event bidding or hosting decision. Evidence shows that, when sporting mega-events come to town, <a href="http://ideas.repec.org/p/spe/wpaper/0902.html">land values often rise</a>; resource prices increase; local people and organisations are crowded out of markets; <a href="http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=crime%20sporting%20mega%20events&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEQQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esrc.ac.uk%2Fmy-esrc%2Fgrants%2FRES-063-27-0205%2Foutputs%2FDownload%2F17fcc821-b569-4cce-8b7e-7fafbcb3b8c8&ei=JOvJUbWVL8mP0AXll4DgBg&usg=AFQjCNFRMsReXUJ-5PIPs2x8QQ4st7BNuA&bvm=bv.48293060,d.d2k">crime rates rise</a>; <a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cog/em/2013/00000017/00000001/art00002">congestion</a> <a href="http://www.mobility-bovy.ch/resources/21-UITP-TPI-EN-06.pdf">increases</a>, and so forth. Indeed, as the authorities in Brazil grapple with social unrest, it would be entirely worthwhile asking them whether they factored the cost of policing such unrest into their event hosting calculations. One suspects not. </p>
<p>Another area of concern in the economic impact debate is that too many studies emphasise the “economic benefits” of hosting events. In spite of what critics and cynics alike might claim, sporting mega-events do have positive impacts, especially in the form of short-term tourism (proven in <a href="http://ideas.repec.org/p/sza/wpaper/wpapers119.html">several</a> <a href="http://www.visitscotland.org/pdf/Sport%20Tourism%20-%20Scale%20of%20Opportunity%20from%20hosting%20a%20mega%20event.pdf">studies</a>).</p>
<p>However, rather than highlighting just the benefits, we actually need to be examining “net economic benefit”. That is, the benefits minus the costs (still notwithstanding, of course, the fact that we should be measuring economic costs and benefits and not simply financial costs and benefits). The lure of benefit is therefore often a disingenuous one, as a statement of benefit without the attendant costs is entirely misleading.</p>
<p>Until such time that a globally determined set of parameters for measuring sporting mega-event impacts has been established, the empire builders, naysayers and others will persist in their jousting. If we could build a common measurement model, then it would make the economics of bidding and hosting a more open, transparent and better governed process. Decisions could be made on a more “like-for-like” basis, while the world’s taxpayers would be clearer in their minds about where the money comes from to fund events, what this money is being spent on, and what return they and their country will get. </p>
<p>For now though, as protesters and police battle in the tear-gas fog of Brazilian cities, policy makers and academics remain mired in the fog of sporting impact measurement, and no one is any the wiser.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15536/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Chadwick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Perhaps it is a matter of culture, possibly it is something to do with indifference, but sporting mega-events appear to be considerably less popular in Brazil than in the UK. Whereas a majority of the…Simon Chadwick, Professor of Sport Business Strategy, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/154292013-06-25T13:52:36Z2013-06-25T13:52:36ZPopular protest: new media and the spread of inspiration<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/26005/original/t5x5mt69-1371834424.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Made in Brazil, used in Turkey: a teargas canister</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Özlem Gürses</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A protest against the destruction of green space in central Istanbul escalates to national protests against a remote, desecularising political leader; public transport fares in Brazil lead to a national upsurge of protest against an uncaring elite. </p>
<p>But what similarities can be found between these two and other protest movements globally? The answer lies in the emotive imagery that they both share, from the Gandhian passive-resistance of Gezi Park and the images of thousands in the streets of Rio to the Occupy protests of New York, London and California.</p>
<p>The images and footage created of these movements at once inspires others to join that particular movement, and gives impetus to other protests the world over. Each of these movements has an inspirational image, piece of footage or even a sound bite that defines them in the eyes of a global audience. What is also shared among these captured moments is that they are rarely created or even dispersed by traditional forms of media.</p>
<p>Egypt’s protests were epitomised at the time by a top down view of a packed Tahrir square. The sheer volume of people created an inspiring image that encouraged people throughout the world to consider what could be achieved through mobilising the masses. The protests in Turkey and Brazil are already finding their symbols.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/26168/original/y6sz4nkt-1372159841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/26168/original/y6sz4nkt-1372159841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26168/original/y6sz4nkt-1372159841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26168/original/y6sz4nkt-1372159841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26168/original/y6sz4nkt-1372159841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26168/original/y6sz4nkt-1372159841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26168/original/y6sz4nkt-1372159841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A ‘standing man’ protests in Turkey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zsombor Lacza</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Turkish protests soon found the image that will embody and immortalise their movement. Ceyda Sungur is the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/10108014/Lady-in-the-Red-Dress-and-her-dream-of-a-Turkish-rebirth.html">woman in the red dress</a> who can now be found all over the internet as she is pepper-sprayed by police while attending a protest in Gezi Park. Sungur now exists alongside <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/18/turkey-standing-man-protest-erdem-gunduz_n_3458390.html?utm_hp_ref=world">Erdem Gunduz’</a> standing man as a symbol of passive resistance. This resistance has spread from Taksim square throughout the country, as a telling commentary on police reaction to demonstrations. Together they are the leitmotif of this popular motion against perceived wrongs.</p>
<p>In November 2011 an Occupy demonstration at the University of California, Davis gave birth to an image that has since achieved cult status on the internet. The image in question: footage of John Pike, a UC Davis police officer spraying already <a href="http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/19/video-of-police-pepper-spraying-u-c-davis-students-provokes-outrage/">seated and peaceful protesters</a> with pepper spray. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/26166/original/gk2dv948-1372159003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/26166/original/gk2dv948-1372159003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26166/original/gk2dv948-1372159003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26166/original/gk2dv948-1372159003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26166/original/gk2dv948-1372159003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26166/original/gk2dv948-1372159003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/26166/original/gk2dv948-1372159003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Pike sets off a global meme.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Louise Macabitas</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The similarities are obvious and, while traditional forms of media reported the story, they couldn’t do it fast enough. The internet rapidly filled the gap with the images and video spread through youtube and twitter. The counter-point of violent reaction against what appeared to be perfectly peaceful action was a powerful image, just like that of the woman in red.</p>
<p>Several elements of this imagery can be found in Brazil as well, and indeed mirrored in earlier protests such as the Occupy movement. What these key moments share is that the images all capture some form of unnecessary violence, they are all taken from an intimate perspective, and then they are spread using a medium that throws off attempts at restriction.</p>
<p>In Brazil, we’ve already seen the resonant and almost nostalgic pictures of throngs of people filling streets and squares by night. But the unfortunate truth is that artistic images such as the “standing man” represent a rare example of a defining image without violence or pain. </p>
<p>What is more likely is that Brazil will come to be defined by a picture such as that taken last week of a <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/i-was-brazil-woman-peppersprayed-in-face-says-protester-8667257.html">woman pepper-sprayed by police</a>. Like those mentioned earlier, images like this create empathy, and spread through crowd sourced and popular new media to reach a global audience.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15429/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexi Drew does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A protest against the destruction of green space in central Istanbul escalates to national protests against a remote, desecularising political leader; public transport fares in Brazil lead to a national…Alexi Drew, PhD Researcher, New Political Communications Unit, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/153742013-06-24T20:37:10Z2013-06-24T20:37:10ZAll business roads lead to Rio<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25962/original/szrnt483-1371787606.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C1%2C998%2C666&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When the sporting gods smile at Australia, we go to Rio, but Brazil has long been on the international business map.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We have recently witnessed Brazil being hit by mass protests not seen since the days of the military dictatorship, but apart from the Socceroos going to the 2014 World Cup and the Rio Olympics in 2016, does Brazil really matter to Australia?</p>
<p>Well, just like 10 years ago, if a country didn’t have a China strategy, it didn’t have an international strategy. The same has been said about having a “BRIC” (Brazil, Russia, India and China) strategy. </p>
<p>With Australia and Brazil historically not in each other’s sphere of influence, our country has typically ignored Brazil. But the times they are a-changin’ as Australian companies look seriously at a number of Brazil’s industries.</p>
<p>First, at rocks and crops. Australian resources and agribusiness players are forging ahead in Brazil, where both countries have a comparative advantage. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are there (just like Vale is in Australia), and Australia’s CSIRO benchmarks itself against Brazil’s respected Embrapa in agricultural research.</p>
<p>Second, at alternative energy. Pacific Hydro has made headway with wind and solar power after some success in Chile. Their CEO Rob Grant says, “Australia and Brazil share several similarities, including geographical conditions and water supply, and the development of clean energy will be needed as Brazil’s middle class increases along with their expectations of having access to resources, food and water.”</p>
<p>Third, at the service, retail and education sectors. Westfield has made a strong investment in Brazil, and there are over 16,000 Brazilian students in Australia, with strengthening ties in architecture, urban planning, creative industries, sports, recreation and culture.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25959/original/7x6pwbqm-1371780365.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25959/original/7x6pwbqm-1371780365.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25959/original/7x6pwbqm-1371780365.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25959/original/7x6pwbqm-1371780365.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25959/original/7x6pwbqm-1371780365.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25959/original/7x6pwbqm-1371780365.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25959/original/7x6pwbqm-1371780365.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The recent protests in Brazil highlight the country’s ongoing struggle with social issues such as inequality.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And finally, as the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Rio Olympic Games approach, Australia has put its event-management skills into action. We are helping Brazil learn from the successful 2000 Sydney Olympics and other global events managed by Australians at home and abroad.</p>
<p>This is being spearheaded by the Australian Government through the Australian Trade Commission (Austrade) and its highly respected Business Club Australia programme. With the global spotlight on Brazil over the 2014-2016 period, the Australian government sees it as a vital time to show exporters and investors the opportunities at hand in the vast Brazilian market.</p>
<p>But we are not alone. Australia has only just realised that Brazil is already a major global economy. And as an agricultural, mining and aviation exporter, it is also a food, aerospace, resources and energy superpower, with Petrobras, Vale, Embaer, JBS Beef and Ambev some of the world’s most influential multinationals and investors.</p>
<p>We are not getting first-mover advantage either. Brazil has been attracting attention from many of the world’s most important international business diplomatic delegations from the US, Canada, Germany, Japan, China and increasingly the emerging powers of Asia, the Middle East and Africa too.</p>
<p>But Australian businesses have also found frustrations in Brazil in terms of bureaucracy, tax laws and infrastructure; they notice the social issues, too. And while Brazil has reduced inequality under presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff, there is still a long way to go - as the protests highlight.</p>
<p>However, as the world’s sixth-largest economy and with the spotlight on it from 2014 to 2016, Brazil is now just too big to ignore.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15374/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Harcourt has received a grant from the Council of Australia Latin American relations (part of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade) to write a book on Australia and Latin America.</span></em></p>We have recently witnessed Brazil being hit by mass protests not seen since the days of the military dictatorship, but apart from the Socceroos going to the 2014 World Cup and the Rio Olympics in 2016…Tim Harcourt, J.W. Nevile Fellow in Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/153902013-06-20T15:15:58Z2013-06-20T15:15:58ZThey’ve won the battle of the buses, but the struggle for Brazil’s future goes on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25938/original/89v5qhkq-1371726533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The government has backed down on bus fares.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Agencia Brasil</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Brazilian authorities have tried to put a stop to the demonstrations sweeping the nation by <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-22981809">reversing bus fare increases</a>. But it is too late. The protests are now about much <a href="https://theconversation.com/fare-game-buses-and-football-fuel-protest-in-unequal-brazil-15325">more than buses</a>; they are about ensuring Brazilians have the right to come and go as they please, without fear of state violence.</p>
<p>More than a million people <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/21/brazil-police-crowds-rio-protest">took to the streets</a> across the country on Thursday night to defend these rights. And it was widely reported that violence flared. Simultaneous demonstrations took place in at least 80 cities. </p>
<p>State violence against social movements has been woefully common in Brazil recently. A new wave of social protests, organised by young people in the country’s most important cities, have been the target of brutal violence by the military police.</p>
<p>Demonstrators and the press were the targets of police violence. Images show in detail scenes of aggression against unarmed citizens shouting “no violence”, tear gas and rubber bullets being fired directly into groups of reporters and photographers carrying cameras and press badges. </p>
<p>One of the victims was a journalist of the newspaper Folha de S Paulo, Giuliana Vallone, who was <a href="http://zerohora.clicrbs.com.br/rs/noticia/2013/06/reporter-e-atingida-no-olho-por-bala-de-borracha-durante-protesto-em-sp-4169694.html">injured in the eye</a> by one of the rubber bullets used by police. Seven other members of the press were injured during the event. The military police gave a clear demonstration that they came not to control the outbreak and ensure the safety of everyone, but to bring it to an end.</p>
<p>The truculent approach of the state led to a severe change of the national public opinion in favour of these protests. Before last Thursday the media labelled the wave of protests as “acts of vandalism” perpetrated by “rebels without a cause”. The tone of the press changed, however, after the clear change in the equilibrium of social forces. One major polling agency reports that since last week’s conflicts well over half of São Paulo’s population now support the protests.</p>
<p>The Confederations Cup, currently being played in Brazil, has highlighted another reason for discontent. The cup, an eight-team football tournament featuring some of the world’s top international sides, is seen as a “trial run” for Brazil’s World Cup next year. But many in the country feel the money spent on stadiums and infrastructure for the tournament should have been invested in education or health, and military police have been <a href="http://rt.com/news/brazil-football-protest-military-919/">deployed against protesters</a> at five different Confederations Cup venues. </p>
<p>Whether about football or bus fares, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-going-on-in-brazil-the-world-cup-and-its-malcontents-15329">scale of the last week’s protests has been extraordinary</a>. More than 200,000 took to the streets of the country. These protests have been organised through social media websites like Facebook, as is characteristic of similar contemporary movements elsewhere.</p>
<p>In Brasilia, protesters stormed the National Congress building where the Senate and House of Representatives gather. This happened only once before, in 1984, when the movement “Direct Elections Now” - Diretas Já - freed the country from more than 20 years of military dictatorship.</p>
<p>In Rio de Janeiro, more than 100,000 people marched earlier this week. The Legislative Assembly was attacked, journalists and party flags were expelled, and police officers were assaulted.
Some of them even had to be escorted to safety by other protesters, when they became trapped inside bank branches and were unable to leave. </p>
<p>Police violence has also been on the increase, beyond the usual repression of the needy population. An operation conducted by the military police in March, with explicit support from the national media, highlighted the problem. </p>
<p>Dozens of native Brazilian “indígenas” had occupied a listed building next to the famous Maracana stadium since 2006. However, the government intended to build a parking lot next to the stadium in order to provide infrastructure for the World Cup. The occupiers were evicted, after the police used pepper spray, tear gas, electric shock and rubber bullets against them. Protesters, who tried to demonstrate peacefully, were also suppressed, as were some reporters. Some state legislators were amongst the protesters trying to mediate the eviction.</p>
<p>It seems the world is at last waking up to the scale of the problem in Brazil. Last year, the UN Human Rights Council called for the termination of the military police. Earlier this week, the UN <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=45202&Cr=brazil&Cr1=#.UcLafevy8Xw">asked the government</a> to “guarantee the right to peaceful assembly and to prevent the disproportionate use of force during protests”. </p>
<p>After more than two decades of a brutal military dictatorship, a democratic regime was consolidated in this corner of the world. What this social movement has done, in just over a week, is imposed the opinion that the right to protest must be respected. It has made government and the media retreat from their position of condemning dissent. </p>
<p>But the authorities have given enormous powers to the military police, one of the most violent and corrupt Brazilian institutions. The institution charged with containing dissent is one of the most significant continuities from the former dictatorial regime.</p>
<p>Perhaps therein lies the greatest danger that repression of protests represents for the recent Brazilian democracy. The protesters have won the bus fares battle, but the war for Brazil’s future goes on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15390/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Demian Melo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Brazilian authorities have tried to put a stop to the demonstrations sweeping the nation by reversing bus fare increases. But it is too late. The protests are now about much more than buses; they are about…Demian Melo, Lecturer in History, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.