tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/bus-6820/articlesbus – The Conversation2023-09-29T16:43:11Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143232023-09-29T16:43:11Z2023-09-29T16:43:11ZSelf-driving buses that go wherever you want? How the UK is trying to revolutionise public transport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551206/original/file-20230929-23-z1vo5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C164%2C3015%2C1730&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scotland’s CAVForth self-driving bus service began in May 2023, serving a 14-mile route that crosses the Forth Road Bridge on the outskirts of Edinburgh.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stagecoachbus.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Futurology is littered with predictions that failed to materialise, not least in the field of transport technology. In Edwardian times, when public transport was largely powered by horse or steam, a number of new concepts emerged which were hailed as the “future of public transport”.</p>
<p>In 1910, the <a href="https://collection.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/objects/co27065/brennans-gyroscopic-mono-rail-car-model-gyroscopic-mono-railcar">Brennan Monorail</a> was a gyroscopically stabilised, diesel-powered monorail train that ran on a circular test track at the White City in London. One of the early passengers on this <a href="https://www.midnight-trains.com/post/on-board-louis-brennans-gyroscopic-monorail">50-person prototype</a> was then-home secretary Winston Churchill, who insisted on driving the train himself. The new technology <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19225780-125-histories-the-spinning-top-railway/">reportedly</a> “proved as interesting to the statesman as a new toy would to a child” – and Churchill is said to have told its Irish-Australian creator <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/louis-brennan-the-inventive-life-of-the-monorail-man-from-mayo-1.1757782">Louis Brennan</a>: “Sir, your invention promises to revolutionise the railway systems of the world.”</p>
<p>Buoyed by such designs, engineering writers of the time looked forward to a future of us all whizzing around the country on new forms of hi-tech transport. But there were concerns too: in one popular <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmsworth_Popular_Science">1912 encyclopaedia</a>, an artist’s impression of a monorail train crossing a gorge via an unfeasibly skimpy bridge was accompanied by the warning:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>When [note, not ‘if’] the monorail comes into general use, the feeling of insecurity – quite unnecessary but nevertheless inevitable – will be felt the strongest where there are single-rail bridges.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In fact, despite Churchill’s support, the Brennan Monorail never got further than the test track. In both its target markets – cheaply built branch lines and the military – a far simpler technology easily outdid it on grounds of practicality, flexibility and cost: the motorised bus and truck.</p>
<p>More than a century on, we are in a new era of transport technology disruption. In recent years, across the world, we have seen the emergence of the <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/flying-electric-taxis-are-hailed-as-the-future-2v6jllgfc">flying taxi</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2022/11/29/is-it-finally-time-for-high-speed-hyperloop-transportation/">hyperloop train</a> prototypes, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-08-10/hydrogen-highway-or-highway-to-nowhere">hydrogen highways</a> and <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/trackless-trams-help-revitalize-suburbs/">trackless trams</a>, as well as countless driverless <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2012/12/23/3797260/self-driving-cars-automated-vehicles">car</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-what-weve-learned-from-experiments-in-san-francisco-and-phoenix-199319">taxi</a> and <a href="https://fortune.com/2017/01/14/vegas-self-driving-bus/">bus</a> pilots. At the same time, our most popular forms of public transport – the train and bus – are creaking under the strain of <a href="https://www.local.gov.uk/about/news/thousands-bus-routes-risk-amid-funding-uncertainty">government funding cuts</a>, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/resolving-rail-disputes-would-have-cost-less-than-strikes-admits-minister-12789405">union disputes</a> and <a href="https://www.railpro.co.uk/railpro-magazine/april-22/staffing-strategies-must-be-fixed-to-secure-future-for-uk-rail">technological upheaval</a>.</p>
<p>Is this the dawning of a much-needed revolution in mass transit, led by a new breed of clean-powered, demand-responsive, driverless vehicles? Or for all the people young and old, rural and urban-based, who rely on public transport for their everyday needs, will these grand designs turn out to be little more than modern versions of the Brennan Monorail flop?</p>
<h2>Slow death of the bus</h2>
<p>A key factor influencing today’s public transport strategies is the commitment to limit planetary warming to 1.5°C by reaching net zero emissions – a strategy the UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66857551">recently appeared to row back on</a>. One global projection by the C40 network suggests public transport use in cities needs to <a href="https://www.c40.org/news/public-transport-cities-decade-1-5c-target/">double by 2030</a> to meet these targets.</p>
<p>But there are, of course, many other benefits of good public transport: from <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/resource-efficiency/what-we-do/cities/sustainable-transport-and-air-pollution">improving air quality</a> and <a href="https://www.urbantransportgroup.org/resources/social-inclusion#:%7E:text=Transport%20has%20a%20vital%20role,to%20fully%20participate%20in%20society.">social inclusion</a> to encouraging <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/economic-growth/regional-development/2022/07/transport-is-the-core-of-levelling-up">regional economic development</a> (aka levelling up) and <a href="https://oecd-opsi.org/innovations/pink-passes/">widening workforce participation</a>.</p>
<p>In the UK, trains continue to hog the headlines, amid the rumoured <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66909732">cancellation of the northern section of the HS2 route</a>, the general <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/22/north-rail-system-franchises-london">lack of rail investment in the north</a>, ongoing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/rail-strikes">industrial action</a> over pay and staffing levels – and even the agonising <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/26/no-one-knew-anything-rail-passengers-11-hour-london-to-edinburgh-odyssey">11-hour ordeal</a> endured by rail passengers when their London to Edinburgh service was cancelled mid-route. Meanwhile, the long, slow <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/06/bus-neglect-national-failure-public-policy-motorists">collapse of the UK’s local bus services</a> has gone largely unnoticed – other than by the people who have lost this critical mode of travel.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="BBC graphic of bus cuts" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550306/original/file-20230926-15-nvzbgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changes in bus use in English counties.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64651414">Department for Transport/BBC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In March 2023, the House of Commons Transport Committee <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/34612/documents/190548/default/">reported</a> that England’s long-term decline in bus use outside London – a 15% drop between 2010-11 and 2018-19 – had deteriorated by a further 15% despite the government’s temporary <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/2-bus-fare-cap">£2 cap on fares</a> (rising to £2.50 in November 2023). The situation is <a href="https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/scottish-transport-statistics-no-38-2019-edition/chapter-2-bus-and-coach-travel/#:%7E:text=380%20million%20journeys%20were%20made,cards%20in%20Scotland%20in%202019.">similar in Scotland</a>, where bus use has declined 22% since 2007-08.</p>
<p>In parallel with this decline, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64557250">services and routes have been cut</a>. Government bus grants have become increasingly selective, resulting in entire bus networks vanishing in a number of areas, and being left “<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/local-bus-services-hanging-by-a-thread-mps-warn/ar-AA19fI5V?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e1abcf8487c34436b238e8eb141cacb9&ei=34">hanging by a thread</a>” in others.</p>
<p>This isn’t just in smaller towns and rural areas. Many larger settlements have also been affected, such as Stoke-on-Trent, where bus services have reduced by half since 2012-14. In June 2023, when <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3gz35wgpdyo">further cuts were announced</a>, <a href="https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/first-potteries-axes-journeys-cuts-8536993">local media</a> reported the impact on users such as this unhappy traveller:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I use the bus to get to work and back, and losing the service would mean reducing my hours. It’s getting us down. My husband’s an Avon rep, so he’s on and off the buses all the time. And the 8am bus I get is packed.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There are exceptions to this downward spiral. Manchester’s mayor, Andy Burnham, recently heralded the launch of the new, <a href="https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/news/local-accountability-at-centre-of-new-bus-network-as-operators-appointed-to-run-first-franchised-services-outside-of-london-for-almost-40-years/">“re-regulated” Bee network of buses</a> across Greater Manchester as “symbolic of a need to get more public control and ownership of critical services”. Praising this initiative, the Guardian wrote in its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/18/the-guardian-view-on-greater-manchesters-bus-revolution-the-public-at-the-wheel?CMP=share_btn_tw">leader column</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The cutting of bus services on purely commercial grounds has led to greater social and economic isolation, restricting opportunities for the elderly and those without other means of getting around. Publicly regulated buses will at last allow greater accountability in relation to a service that, for many passengers, is fundamental to their daily quality of life.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But this is not the direction of travel in most parts of the country, where privatised, disconnected bus services remain dominant. A key structural reason for the decline in local bus use is that people’s patterns of travel have become <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1165693/our-changing-travel-how-people_s-travel-choices-are-changing.pdf">much more dispersed and complex</a> – behaviour that is hard to accommodate with a conventional, fixed-route public transport system such as the bus.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
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<p>In fact, the strongest recent growth in local travel – seemingly exacerbated by the pandemic – has not been along major corridors to city centres, but in <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=5f45c81567467d0a5f56899774153461b85b1e4e">suburban and rural areas</a>. Not only are people <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/characteristicsofhomeworkersgreatbritain/september2022tojanuary2023">working in different ways</a> but our economy is increasingly <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02786/#:%7E:text=The%20service%20industries%20include%20the,employment%20in%20January%E2%80%93March%202023.">service</a> and <a href="https://www.capitaleconomics.com/newsroom/uk-economy-returns-growth-driven-consumer-spending">consumer-focused</a>, and travel patterns have altered significantly as a result. The major areas of travel growth are now for <a href="http://www.demand.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FutureTravel_report_final.pdf">social and leisure-related purposes</a> – and again, traditional fixed-route bus services struggle to accommodate these types of trip, while it is so much easier to simply use a car.</p>
<p>The advent of certain digital technologies – in particular, <a href="https://www.route-one.net/features/cashless-is-king-the-shifting-landscape-of-ticketing/">cashless ticketing</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2016/sep/15/top-10-transport-apps-smarter-travel">journey planning apps</a> – may make using public transport more desirable for those comfortable with such technology. But they don’t change the core service. A smart app is just a high-tech insult if buses don’t run when and where you want to go.</p>
<h2>The emergence of trackless trams</h2>
<p>In 2011, a small but radical new service was established to connect passengers using Heathrow Airport’s Terminal 5 with their parked cars. These <a href="https://www.heathrow.com/transport-and-directions/heathrow-parking/heathrow-pod-parking-terminal-5">Heathrow Pods</a> consisted of driverless, four-seater vehicles available on demand, taking passengers straight to their destination along special elevated, segregated roadways. Users were promised they would “never have to wait more than 30 seconds for one to become available”.</p>
<p>While admittedly covering a very limited area, this radical alternative to the traditional fixed-route, scheduled model of public transport <a href="https://www.dailystar.co.uk/travel/travel-news/mans-video-futuristic-heathrow-airport-28010349">continues to garner praise</a> since reopening after a hiatus during the pandemic. In the wake of the Heathrow Pods’ introduction, it had been expected that similar tracked, autonomous transport systems would develop elsewhere – but that hasn’t come about.</p>
<p>Rather, they could be seen as a small-vehicle precursor to the <a href="https://citymonitor.ai/transport/trackless-trams-may-be-the-best-alternative-to-light-rail">trackless tram systems</a> that have subsequently emerged around the world. A combination of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Positioning_System">GPS</a> and <a href="https://www.mrlcg.com/latest-media/lidar-in-cars-how-lidar-technology-is-making-self-driving-cars-a-reality-299493/">Lidar (light detection and ranging</a>) guidance technologies are enabling battery-powered electric vehicles to fulfil the function of trams without the need for disruptive and costly track and overhead line infrastructure – making high-quality tram-style services viable beyond a handful of “global elite” cities.</p>
<p>The Chinese <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-Trackless-Tram-System-developed-by-CRRC-and-demonstrated-in-Zhuzhou-China-Source_fig1_330069521">pioneered this form of public transport</a> with the automated rapid transit (ART) vehicles, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trackless-trams-are-ready-to-replace-light-rail-103690">first entered service in the eastern city of Zhuzhou</a> in 2018, then rapidly spread to other Chinese cities. Initially manually driven, these trackless trams are now moving to autonomous operation. In Zhuzhou, a four-carriage model was introduced in 2021 which can carry 320 passengers at a maximum speed of just over 40mph, running on batteries charged at each station stop.</p>
<p>And the concept is spreading beyond China: in 2022, a trial was announced for a five-mile route <a href="https://www.stirling.wa.gov.au/your-city/news/2022/march/exciting-new-phase-in-trackless-tram-feasibility">in the city of Stirling</a>, Western Australia. In the UK, however, there is less inclination to <a href="https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2022/10/uk-and-us-seek-to-undermine-chinas-growing-technological-influence/">depend on Chinese-controlled technology</a>. And of course, trams – trackless or otherwise – don’t solve the issue of people wanting services that take them beyond a fixed route.</p>
<p>Meeting the modern, disparate mobility needs of an entire population doesn’t just require new types of vehicle or clever booking apps. We need a new vision of what public transport could be – and in different corners of the UK, there are places starting to offer this.</p>
<h2>The UK’s self-driving public transport prototypes</h2>
<p>Scotland’s <a href="https://www.cavforth.com/">CAVForth self-driving bus service</a>, which came into public service in May 2023, is described on its website as “the world’s most ambitious and complex autonomous bus system”. Serving a <a href="https://www.cnet.com/tech/i-rode-the-worlds-first-autonomous-public-bus-service/">14-mile route</a> that crosses the Forth Road Bridge on the outskirts of Edinburgh, the buses drive themselves along ordinary roads, obey traffic lights, and mix with pedestrians and cyclists. The main reaction of passengers seems to be that they are unaware the buses are not manually driven, as one early user <a href="https://www.cnet.com/tech/i-rode-the-worlds-first-autonomous-public-bus-service/">wrote in CNet</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Though the bus is fully autonomous, you’d be forgiven for not really recognising it as such. You’ll find a regular steering wheel upfront, and behind it, a driver who’ll no doubt look as though they’re operating the vehicle as usual. UK law dictates that even fully autonomous vehicles must still have an ‘operator’ present who can take manual control, should the need arise.</p>
</blockquote>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jQ4uMMYP5xg?wmode=transparent&start=6" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Stagecoach video showing passengers on board the CAVForth self-driving bus service.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Using a combination of three sets of Lidar technology and a “suite of cameras and radar”, the autonomous system can currently manage 90% of the route, <a href="https://www.itpro.com/technology/meet-the-cavforth-project-the-worlds-first-autonomous-bus#:%7E:text=The%20five%2Dbus%20fleet%20began,will%20expand%20northwards%20to%20Dunfermline.">according to ITPro</a>, with the human driver “handling the exit from the depot and a few other locations”. The route is projected to expand further north, to the city of Dunfermline, in 2024.</p>
<p>Because the driver is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/free-public-transport-doesnt-add-up-unless-you-get-rid-of-the-drivers-97129">big part of bus running costs</a>, if buses can eventually be autonomous then the challenging costs of providing late-night services or thinly used routes will be reduced – meaning that services could be improved. But the IT-led potential extends much further than a driverless bus.</p>
<p>In south-east England, <a href="https://www.mi-link.uk/">Mi-Link</a> – billed as “the UK’s first fully electric autonomous bus service” – is a move towards something more radical. As well as being electric-powered, this self-driving bus service – which launched in January 2023 and now <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-65888336">runs on public roads to Didcot Parkway railway station</a> in south Oxfordshire – is linked to a real-time journey planning app which helps travellers plan their journey whether they are walking, cycling or taking the bus to the Milton Park trading estate. It keeps users updated according to their individual travel preferences through the likes of WhatsApp and Messenger.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">First Bus video launching the Mi-Link self-driving electric bus service in Oxfordshire.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The integration of autonomous technology with a smart journey planning system feels critical if public transport is to prosper by attracting traditional car users. App-linked self-driving taxi fleets may well prove another key part of this future, and there are already entirely driverless public taxi fleets such as Waymo and Cruise in <a href="https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=driverless+cars+san+francisco&docid=603485803253406102&mid=FACAC36B1FADD54CBAAFFACAC36B1FADD54CBAAF&view=detail&FORM=VIRE">San Francisco</a>, and the <a href="https://uk.pcmag.com/news/145977/visiting-chinas-capital-city-dont-be-surprised-if-your-taxi-has-no-driver">Robotaxi</a> in China. On the whole, these appear to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-what-weve-learned-from-experiments-in-san-francisco-and-phoenix-199319">technically successful</a>, if highly subsidised and dependent on powerful 5G networks to operate. However, their emergence has been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-66611513">met with resistance</a> both about perceived lack of safety and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f312c9ff-633d-480e-8887-4b5ad3f0ae5e">luddite-esque fears</a> of potential job losses.</p>
<p>But for one of the best clues to what local public transport could look like in the future, we should again look closer to home, to a UK city that has long been renowned – and sometimes mocked – for its futuristic visions.</p>
<h2>The future according to Milton Keynes</h2>
<p>After its foundation in 1967, the ambitious <a href="https://www.tcpa.org.uk/areas-of-work/garden-cities-and-new-towns/new-towns/">new town</a> of Milton Keynes in Buckinghamshire soon began attracting an international reputation for anticipating future social, economic and cultural trends. Along the way, it was also derided as a <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/milton-keynes-turns-50-embracing-roundabouts-city-wants-lead-culture-tech-42699">city of roundabouts</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concrete_Cows">concrete cows</a>, with one architecture critic <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/oct/23/ruins-britain-owen-hatherley-review">calling it</a> “the doomed apotheosis of the fossil-fuel society”.</p>
<p>Today, its designers’ desire to accommodate extremely high levels of car use can be viewed as an environmentally irresponsible planning stance. But despite its detractors, Milton Keynes has proved extremely successful both economically and socially, and today has a growing reputation for being at the forefront of a <a href="https://www.milton-keynes.gov.uk/news/2023/major-boost-advanced-rapid-transport-mk">more climate-friendly era of transport innovation</a>.</p>
<p>Recently, its planners have grappled with the need for a new type of public transport – something that is “demand responsive” in the way of a taxi, but without taxi-level fares.</p>
<p>Demand-responsive transport (DRT) services have been attempted by public authorities over the years – but <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/19345/1/">largely without success</a>. A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/referencework/9780081026724/international-encyclopedia-of-transportation">global assessment</a> in 2021 concluded that when a new DRT service is set up, revenue from the low number of passengers could not cover the running costs, particularly those of the driver and back-office systems.</p>
<p>One early example was the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/2399505.stm">Corlink DRT service</a> in north Cornwall, which launched in 2002 to link rural communities with towns. The subsidy cost of over £28 per passenger trip was financially unsustainable and when special government support for the project ended, the service was withdrawn.</p>
<p>The Taxibus service to Bicester rail station, which launched around the same time, ran flexible routes off-peak and, by late 2003, was carrying 50,000 passengers a year. But even then, the service was eventually withdrawn as commercially unviable.</p>
<p>Twenty years on, however, Milton Keynes has addressed <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/85542/1/Corrected%20proofs%20TCP%20DRT%20article.pdf">the cost problem</a>, at least, with its DRT service, <a href="https://getaroundmk.org.uk/on-board/mk-connect">MK Connect</a>. Facing the familiar situation of decreased funding to support the rising cost of uneconomic bus services, the city council opted not to implement cuts. Instead, it replaced its subsidised routes with a new demand-responsive service in partnership with the international tech company <a href="https://ridewithvia.com/about?lang=en-gb">Via Transportation</a>. Introduced in 2021, MK Connect still requires a subsidy, but <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/85542/">half that of the conventional bus services</a> it replaced.</p>
<p>The service is booked by users like an Uber taxi, logging their pick-up and drop-off addresses through a smartphone app, web portal or by phoning the contact centre. The app directs users to a nearby pick-up point, and they are dropped near their destination. Other passengers may be picked up and dropped off along the way.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1611405318986022932"}"></div></p>
<p>The vehicles are small: as well as the fleet of eight-seater vans (many of which are electric), some cars are used. They generally arrive within 30 minutes of a booking being made, though the wait can be longer at busy times and in more rural areas. Fares are similar to that of traditional buses (payment is cashless), and the service covers the whole Milton Keynes city area – with far better coverage and operating times than the limited bus routes the service replaced.</p>
<p>An important feature is that the app will not allow someone to book on MK Connect if they could use a commercial bus route for their trip instead. In these cases, travellers are informed where to catch the conventional bus and when it will arrive. This ensures that MK Connect does not adversely affect existing viable bus routes, while improving the city’s public transport as a whole. Equally, if people cannot use existing buses due to a disability or other reason, they can register this and will always be accommodated on MK Connect.</p>
<p>The service is widely used, with some 40,000 trips being made each month (almost half a million each year) – a level of use that means its finances stack up. MK Connect has enabled trips to be made that previously were difficult or impossible using conventional buses, including for a man with sight loss who is the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQYnJ41CmTY">subject of a widely shared video</a>.</p>
<p>One of us – Stephen – has used MK Connect on a number of occasions, and offers this mixed review of his experiences of the service:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I booked a trip to get to the barbers for a haircut. You can only book an hour or so beforehand, but I found a service that would get me there on time, which picked me up from the end of our road (the app guided me to the exact pick-up point). One other person joined us on the way and another was dropped off en route, but I got to my drop-off point in time for a three-minute walk across to the barbers. Coming back was less smooth, though. Initially, I was refused a booking – no vehicles were available. I waited a few minutes and tried again. This time I got a vehicle, after a 50-minute wait …</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This mixed experience reflects the feedback that has been given in various <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/85542/1/Corrected%20proofs%20TCP%20DRT%20article.pdf">passenger surveys</a>. MK Connect is designed to serve modern, dispersed patterns of travel demands but is by no means perfect – some people find it harder to use than the buses it replaced, and there are problems with the vehicles being full at busy times, meaning prospective passengers are refused a booking or not accommodated for a long time. The booking system is also not yet reliable enough when a person has to get to an appointment or college lecture on time, say, or to connect with a specific train.</p>
<p>However, generally speaking, regular users appear to be getting used to the new system and its quirks. The real benefit to them, of course, is that this DRT service allows them to make trips that would be much more difficult, or impossible, using traditional route buses.</p>
<p>Another recently launched DRT, <a href="https://www.intelligenttransport.com/transport-articles/132018/transport-accessibility-hertslynx-drt-hertfordshire/">HertsLynx</a>, aims to serve the rural fringes of Hertfordshire using four electric-powered, 16-seater minibuses in an operating zone centred around the market town of Buntingford and surrounding villages. Passengers are able to travel between 250 virtual bus stops, as well as nearby towns including Stevenage, Hitchin, Letchworth and Baldock – although travel to these towns is limited to fixed points (hospitals, train and bus stations, and high streets).</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1439119268419866625"}"></div></p>
<p>HertsLynx now makes 2,600 passenger trips a month and, like MK Connect, booking is by app, online or phone. With only four buses, it has hit a similar issue to MK Connect of being unable to take some trip requests when vehicles are fully in use, as noted in this <a href="https://busandtrainuser.com/2023/07/30/the-drt-renowned-for-its-success/">recent review</a>.</p>
<p>These two prototype services suggest a good model is emerging for local public transport, but that it needs refining. DRT services can best serve more dispersed trips, while conventional buses work well when a regular, predictable arrival time is needed and in situations of high demand. A good mix of the two is what is needed and Milton Keynes and HertsLynx, while heading that way, haven’t yet achieved it. Adding a in a <a href="https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/its-a-new-dawn-for-27759901">Manchester-style regulation structure</a> might well do that. </p>
<h2>The future of local public transport?</h2>
<p>As the Brennan Monorail flop illustrated more than a century ago, predicting the future is a dangerous thing. But there is clearly potential to <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-visions-for-the-future-of-public-transport-125443">rethink public transport systems</a> all over the world, in a way that makes a real difference to the planet and quality of daily life – by improving mobility while reducing costs, air pollution and congestion levels.</p>
<p>This revolution is being driven by a range of organisations, spanning powerful technology companies and IT startups as well as the existing public transport industry and both national and local policymakers. Central to a more diversified public transport future is easily accessed information and payment systems that allow users to customise different services for their own travel needs. Personalised apps on mobile devices to book and pay for public transport services will become increasingly important.</p>
<p>If you combine digital planning and payment systems, autonomous driving and a DRT service redesign, then a radically better form of public transport starts to emerge. Without the need for a driver, fixed-route buses could be smaller but run more frequently. Combined with DRT services to cover more dispersed trips, the potentially transformative, “small vehicle-small infrastructure” vision of public transport systems comes into place.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-public-transport-will-change-our-approach-to-city-planning-and-living-35520">Driverless public transport will change our approach to city planning – and living</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The result could be that, rather than people needing to adjust their behaviour to the schedules and routes of a bus or metro, they can travel directly, whenever they want, on services operating 24/7 – overcoming the poor quality of infrequent evening, night and Sunday public transport services experienced today.</p>
<p>All that said, the future may still not end up quite as automated as <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/digital-development/automated-transport-could-propel-development-forward-can-we-turn-vision-reality">some technologists predict</a>. Driverless vehicles overseen by control centres cost an awful lot to set up and run, and this may limit the use of driverless bus and taxi systems to where use is high enough to make the sums add up – in other words, major cities. For a good while yet, public transport vehicles in most medium-sized UK towns, as well as rural areas, are likely to remain manually driven.</p>
<p>Rather than trying to jump straight to an IT-driverless ideal, a phased introduction of upgradable, adaptable system designs makes more sense. In this way, the spectre of the Brennan Monorail should remain a useful reminder that not all technological advances will change our world for the better, and there is a real danger that second-best fixes could impede potentially transformative change. This is a journey that has only just started – and it’s going to be a bumpy ride.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/12-best-ways-to-get-cars-out-of-cities-ranked-by-new-research-180642?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">12 best ways to get cars out of cities – ranked by new research</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-future-do-airlines-have-three-experts-discuss-135365?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">What future do airlines have? Three experts discuss
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Amid bus route cuts and rail strikes, can the answer to our future public transport needs be found in the hi-tech prototypes being trialled around the UK?Stephen Potter, Professor of Transport Strategy, The Open UniversityMatthew Cook, Professor of Innovation, The Open UniversityMiguel Valdez, Lecturer in Technology and Innovation Management, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1662452021-09-02T16:17:02Z2021-09-02T16:17:02ZAs people continue working from home, the monthly transit pass needs to change to remain worth it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416622/original/file-20210817-17-9uhcms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=307%2C150%2C2861%2C1961&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People are shoulder to shoulder inside a city bus while commuting at rush hour during the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Public transit <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-covid19-public-transit-1.5509927">use dropped sharply when the pandemic hit</a> as many people stayed home. And over a year and a half later, as fall approaches, vaccination rates increase and “normalcy” feels within reach, it is important to think about how commuting has changed and how we will need to adapt the way we plan for transit. </p>
<p>As people moved to cars and non-motorized transport over fear of infection through what some have called “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-public-transit-covid-19-pandemic-1.5556374">forced togetherness</a>,” transit agencies are worried it may take years to regain lost users — up to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/pandemic-public-transit-montreal-loss-1.5666607">10 years in Montréal’s case</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph illustrates decline in public transit and travel as pandemic began" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417260/original/file-20210820-25-1p8iqf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417260/original/file-20210820-25-1p8iqf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417260/original/file-20210820-25-1p8iqf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417260/original/file-20210820-25-1p8iqf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417260/original/file-20210820-25-1p8iqf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417260/original/file-20210820-25-1p8iqf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417260/original/file-20210820-25-1p8iqf8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sharp drops in public transit and all other travel were experienced early on in the pandemic. Transit has since gained back some, but not all of its ridership. Note: The baseline is the median value across Canada, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan. 3 – Feb. 6, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is because people changed their habits, and changing habits takes time: research suggests <a href="https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/328407">it can range from 60 to 250 days</a>. The pandemic has been long enough for habits to have changed; avoiding public transit, using a car and working from home are likely to stick. </p>
<p>With fewer riders funding the system, agencies and governments will need to rethink public transit promotion, funding, operation and expansion. </p>
<p>As researchers who look at <a href="https://cirano.qc.ca/fr/sommaires/2019RP-07">telecommuting and travel</a>, <a href="https://publications.polymtl.ca/5266/">travel disparities</a> and the <a href="https://cirano.qc.ca/fr/sommaires/2019RP-06">economics of transit project funding</a>, the past year has challenged much of our understanding of the way these issues will interact in the future.</p>
<h2>Getting essential workers where they need to be</h2>
<p>Throughout the pandemic, public transit played an important role in getting essential workers where they needed to be. By the end of 2020, 34 per cent of Americans were <a href="https://moovit.com/press-releases/2020-global-public-transport-report/">using public transit just as much as they did pre-pandemic</a>. </p>
<p>Those still using transit were likely <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/in-a-pandemic-we-re-all-transit-dependent">“transit dependent” riders</a>, or individuals with no other available alternatives to access the workplace — like grocery store clerks with jobs deemed essential.</p>
<p>Transit operators had to adapt to maintain services. In England, some operators actually increased service to prevent packed trains and enable social distancing, leading to additional expenses while <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51736185">receiving less revenue</a>. Other operators, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-layoffs-transit-covid-19-1.5541108">like in Winnipeg</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/12/09/ttc-plans-to-continue-at-reduced-pandemic-service-levels-in-2021.html">Toronto</a>, had to reduce service given reduced revenues. </p>
<p>In March 2020, <a href="https://www.stm.info/fr/presse/communiques/2020/covid-19---la-stm-rappelle-de-ne-pas-utiliser-le-transport-en-commun-si-vous-pensez-etre-atteint-par-le-virus">Montréal operators asked users travelling for COVID-19 tests to not use public transit</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Passengers wear face masks on a Halifax Transit ferry. Ferry is seen with a dozen passengers on the top deck, Halifax harbour peaks through the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416638/original/file-20210817-15-rsh6dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416638/original/file-20210817-15-rsh6dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416638/original/file-20210817-15-rsh6dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416638/original/file-20210817-15-rsh6dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416638/original/file-20210817-15-rsh6dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416638/original/file-20210817-15-rsh6dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416638/original/file-20210817-15-rsh6dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Passengers wear face masks on a Halifax Transit ferry as it arrives in Dartmouth, N.S. in July, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A new world with increased remote work</h2>
<p>One objective of public transit has always been to get people to work. For those who can’t work from home, the situation remains the same, but for the hundreds of thousands who can, getting the economics of transit fares right will be crucial. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1803588/table-discussion-evolution-transport-commun-avenir-outaouais-mobilite-quebec">virtual conference of Québec transit operators</a> raised the question over reconciling public transit with working from home.</p>
<p>Monthly transit passes having been the tool to entice users to stick with transit for decades. But the “new” weekly commute — now expected by <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2021001/article/00012-eng.htm">Statistics Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/2-in-3-remote-it-workers-in-canada-will-quit-rather-than-return-to-the-office-full-time-kovasys-survey-finds-896942142.html">some recruitment firms</a> to range between two and five days — may make a monthly transit pass hardly seem worth it. Just how much remote work will stick remains to be seen, but <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2021001/article/00012-eng.htm">Statistics Canada</a> suggests 41 per cent would prefer spending half of their work week at home. </p>
<p>One way to weigh this decision would be to assess at what point a pass is more economical than single fares. By dividing the cost of a monthly transit pass by the single fare or bundled rebate, we can assess how many trips are needed before riders actually save money.</p>
<p>Depending on the city, it is currently profitable to own a pass for as little as 15 workdays in Montréal (one round trip per day), or as many as 26 in Toronto. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Table illustrating recovery cost ratio of standard adult monthly passes for selected agencies" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417285/original/file-20210821-19-2owx6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417285/original/file-20210821-19-2owx6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417285/original/file-20210821-19-2owx6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417285/original/file-20210821-19-2owx6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417285/original/file-20210821-19-2owx6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417285/original/file-20210821-19-2owx6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417285/original/file-20210821-19-2owx6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Recovery cost ratio of standard adult monthly passes for selected agencies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Société de transport de Montréal (STM), Toronto Transit Commission (TTC), Calgary Transit, Vancouver Translink)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to Statistics Canada’s estimates, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2021001/article/00012-eng.htm">transit agencies may need to cater to constant commuters, as well as commuters with 12 in-office days a month</a> (three per week) and eight in-office days a month (two per week). By this account, only workers with abundant use of transit for other activities will be enticed to continue purchasing transit passes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People sit on a Montreal metro wearing face masks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416796/original/file-20210818-15-1ctt7ia.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416796/original/file-20210818-15-1ctt7ia.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416796/original/file-20210818-15-1ctt7ia.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416796/original/file-20210818-15-1ctt7ia.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416796/original/file-20210818-15-1ctt7ia.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416796/original/file-20210818-15-1ctt7ia.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416796/original/file-20210818-15-1ctt7ia.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many transit users commute wearing face masks on a metro in Montréal in July 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What to do, or at least to consider</h2>
<p>Riders will need to recalculate the value of purchasing monthly passes and many may drop their use. Transit agencies need to consider adjusting fares to cater to commuters and become imaginative as to what will work for a variety of work weeks. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.transport-network.co.uk/New-seasons-to-leave-part-time-workers-worse-off/17258">Britain</a>, a flexible tap-in tap-out system and automatic capping of fares may offer better deals for frequent users. An increasing discount as transit passes are used more frequently could reward frequent users and enable lower off peak fares. In the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/remote-work-pushes-transit-agencies-to-rethink-monthly-rail-passes-11610978401">United States</a>, the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority started selling <a href="https://www.septa.org/media/releases/2020/10-15-20.html">three-day transit passes</a>, while New Jersey Transit announced a pilot program which will include a <a href="https://www.njtransit.com/press-releases/nj-transit-launches-njt-rewards-program">rewards program sponsored by local businesses</a>.</p>
<p>The challenges to transit in coming years will be multiple: regaining riders, adapting fares, competing with and complementing other modes. The impact of remote work on downtown parking prices is another unknown. If property owners reduce parking fees, this could make transit even less attractive. </p>
<p>Some transit agencies now describe themselves as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/transit-needs-to-compete-for-post-covid-commuters">mobility managers</a>, focusing not on getting people to use transit but rather on how to avoid driving. The potential for additional government funding given growing climate change wariness, may motivate other agencies to follow suit. </p>
<p>Perhaps the only good coming out of this pandemic is to have made the essentialness of transit more visible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166245/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ugo Lachapelle received funding from the City of Montreal and the Autorité régionale de transport métropolitain (ARTM) on a project relevant to this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Georges A. Tanguay does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Increasing even part-time remote work disrupts public transit revenue. Agencies need to adapt fare structures and business models to meet the changing work market.Ugo Lachapelle, Professeur au département d'études urbaines et touristiques, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Georges A. Tanguay, Professor, Department of Urban Studies and Tourism, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1617862021-06-16T14:18:14Z2021-06-16T14:18:14ZCanada needs a national public transportation system — here’s why<p>A major transit gap was created when Greyhound Lines stopped providing intercity bus services in Central Canada in May. Greyhound had <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/greyhound-cancelling-western-canadian-bus-service">previously withdrawn from Western provinces in 2018</a> following a decrease in ridership. This time, the company cited <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/greyhound-canada-1.6025276">financial pressure related to COVID-19</a> for ending service on the rest of its Canadian routes.</p>
<p>Greyhound’s exit illustrates the need for a publicly funded national transit system.</p>
<p>The federal government’s recently announced <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-transit-fund-1.5908346">$15 billion</a> in transport funding is a step in the right direction. However, such announcements do not necessarily lead to improvements in public transportation because provincial governments have the final decision.</p>
<p>In 2018, when the federal government <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2018/10/the-government-of-canada-addresses-greyhound-canadas-discontinuation-of-bus-routes.html">provided funding</a> to fill gaps created by Greyhound’s initial cuts, <a href="https://thestarphoenix.com/news/local-news/sask-government-refuses-cost-sharing-deal-to-replace-greyhound-routes">some provinces refused it</a>.</p>
<p>Many communities in Canada currently lack intercity and regional transportation and are “<a href="https://www.nfu.ca/greyhounds-exit-paves-the-way-for-a-national-public-transit-system-says-nfu/">under-served with intermittent, expensive and sometimes unsafe transportation options</a>.” Federal, provincial and Indigenous governments therefore need to collaborate to develop an integrated national public transportation system that is safe, <a href="https://www.masstransitmag.com/management/blog/21045585/why-transit-equity-matters">equitable</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-families-can-help-tackle-climate-change-126512">climate friendly</a> and accessible — especially for rural, vulnerable and racialized communities. </p>
<p>An integrated national public transportation system could be designed to improve connectedness between communities and to needed services — including health care, education, financial services, government programs and food retail. It would promote environmental justice, health equity, human dignity and mobility rights. </p>
<p>Our research looks at how governments’ political choices influence these social determinants of health and health outcomes. We have focused on how budget cuts to public transportation worsen health outcomes. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09581596.2021.1905152">This Saskatchewan-based research</a> shows that public transportation cuts can be especially detrimental to vulnerable groups such as people with disabilities, seniors and people with low incomes. </p>
<p>A new study called <a href="https://www.sshrc-crsh.gc.ca/results-resultats/recipients-recipiendaires/2020/ksg_public_transit-ssc_transport_commun-eng.aspx"><em>Here Today, Gone Tomorrow</em></a> will look at vulnerabilities linked to the absence or presence of public transportation in rural and remote locations. </p>
<h2>Why public transportation?</h2>
<p>Transportation affects health because of its connections to service access and climate change.</p>
<p>Globally, <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/984261468327002120/pdf/863040IHME0T4H0ORLD0BANK0compressed.pdf">1.5 million</a> people die from road transport — more than from HIV, malaria or tuberculosis. Canada had the <a href="https://apta.com/wp-content/uploads/Resources/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/APTA_Health_Benefits_Litman.pdf">fourth highest rate</a> of traffic fatalities in 2009 among OECD countries. The <a href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/canada-road-safety.pdf">most recent data</a> shows that road traffic fatality in Canada continues to be higher (5.2 per 100,000 inhabitants) than the European Union average (4.9 per 100,000 inhabitants). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Close-up view of greyhound logo illustration on the side of a bus" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406573/original/file-20210615-21-5uj18m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406573/original/file-20210615-21-5uj18m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406573/original/file-20210615-21-5uj18m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406573/original/file-20210615-21-5uj18m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406573/original/file-20210615-21-5uj18m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406573/original/file-20210615-21-5uj18m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406573/original/file-20210615-21-5uj18m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Greyhound Lines’ exit from Central Canada has left a major transit gap.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Investment in public transportation would reduce these deaths. A study by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwm064">the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States</a> found that while 76.6 per cent of traffic fatalities were people in private cars, only 0.1 per cent were bus occupants.</p>
<p>Public transportation can reduce poverty while ensuring health-care access. A <a href="https://www.utoronto.ca/news/stranded-without-transit-u-t-researchers-say-one-million-canadians-suffer-transport-poverty">2019 study</a> found that almost one million urban Canadians are at risk of “<a href="https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/pdf/10.1680/jtran.15.00073">transportation poverty</a>” because lack of reliable public transportation separates people from economic opportunities.</p>
<p><a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/thestandcentre/pages/314/attachments/original/1599056621/STC-Advocacy-Brief-August-26.pdf?1599056621">Our own research</a> on the dismantling of the Saskatchewan Transportation Company (STC) revealed reduced health-care access and increased waste within the health system because hospitals had relied on the public bus network to transport equipment, blood samples and medicines. Similarly, in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jul/10/local-bus-services-council-routes-jobs-hospitals-gps">United Kingdom</a>, the large-scale dismantling of public transportation options has left many communities stranded.</p>
<p>Public transportation is a future-facing, climate friendly option. Transportation accounts for <a href="https://prairieclimatecentre.ca/2018/03/where-do-canadas-greenhouse-gas-emissions-come-from/">28 per cent of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions</a> — higher than <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf">the global rate of 23 per cent</a>. This contributes to the effects of global climate change, which <a href="https://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2017/wp152_2017.pdf">disproportionately impact</a> those who are poor. As a solution to the climate crisis, public transportation is far more feasible than other suggested approaches like electric cars.</p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-myth-of-electric-cars-why-we-also-need-to-focus-on-buses-and-trains-147827">The myth of electric cars: Why we also need to focus on buses and trains</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Lack of public transit affects vulnerable people</h2>
<p>Apart from the reasons above, a national public transportation system is necessary because its absence normalizes the oppression of already disadvantaged groups. In Western Canada, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/26/insider/a-chilling-journey-along-canadas-highway-16.html">the tragedy of the highway of tears</a> offers a cautionary tale. </p>
<p>Between 1969 and 2011 an estimated 40 women, mostly Indigenous, disappeared or were murdered on Highway 16 in northern British Columbia. The <a href="https://www.mmiwg-ffada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Final_Report_Vol_1a-1.pdf">national inqury</a> into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls concluded that “lack of supportive infrastructure and transportation” has played a role in exposing Indigenous women to danger and violence. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A road sign depicting three missing Indigenous women, reading 'Girls don't hitchhike on the Highway of Tears'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406568/original/file-20210615-21-1qfqqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406568/original/file-20210615-21-1qfqqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406568/original/file-20210615-21-1qfqqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406568/original/file-20210615-21-1qfqqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406568/original/file-20210615-21-1qfqqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406568/original/file-20210615-21-1qfqqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406568/original/file-20210615-21-1qfqqm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sign on the Highway of Tears near Moricetown, B.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Absence of public transportation also disproportionately affects people with disabilities. People with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4msWMzmMFOo&t=3s">disabilities, seniors, low-income residents and other vulnerable groups</a> constituted <a href="https://www.stcbus.com/pub/docs/stc_annual_report_2016-17.pdf">over 70 per cent</a> of Saskatchewan Transportation Company’s ridership. Consequently, dismantling the STC disproportionately affected these groups. </p>
<p>Although a patchwork of private providers emerged after the STC closure, <a href="https://leaderpost.com/news/local-news/like-the-scariest-roller-coaster-of-your-life-regina-man-describes-bus-crash">accidents were reported</a> and services were not accessible to people with disabilities. It took a complaint by a former STC rider to the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/rider-express-wheelchair-accessible-buses-1.6007731">Canadian Transportation Association</a> and two years of back-and-forth for a ruling to be made that private bus service providers must be accessible to all. </p>
<p>Such outcomes illustrate the need for an integrated national public transport system in Canada.</p>
<h2>Re-imagining the way forward</h2>
<p>Although national public transportation is being taken seriously <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/estonia-is-making-public-transport-free/">in some parts of the world</a>, public transportation is often targeted by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/pandemic-related-budget-cuts-leave-travelers-with-rough-roads-outdated-airports-and-fewer-transit-options/2020/10/03/42652692-0328-11eb-897d-3a6201d6643f_story.html">austerity-driven</a> government cutbacks. In Canada, <a href="https://sencanada.ca/Content/SEN/Committee/372/tran/rep/rep03dec02-e.htm#2.1%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Economic%20Regulation%20of%20Buses">deregulation made intercity transportation a provincial jurisdiction in 1987</a>, which led to public transportation cuts.</p>
<p>Current concerns for <a href="https://www.amnesty.ca/paragraphs-pages/climate-justice">climate justice</a>, reduction of <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/09/10/income-inequality-lars-osberg-book-canada_a_23522815/">social inequalities</a>, accessibility and mobility rights call for an integrated transportation system linking communities and services throughout Canada. Treating transportation as an essential service and mobility as a human right would go far in eliminating existing inequalities. </p>
<p>In re-imagining future solutions, Canada should pay special attention to the social dimensions of transportation, including its impact on women, the poor, people with disabilities, the elderly and Indigenous and <a href="https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2020/08/24/transportation-racism-has-shaped-public-transit-america-inequalities">racialized</a> people. </p>
<p>Canada needs a national, publicly funded system integrated across provinces and informed by social, environmental, economic, health and accessibility concerns. Although countries like <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/estonia-is-making-public-transport-free/">Estonia</a> or <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/micheleherrmann/2020/03/14/luxembourgh-public-transportation-free/?sh=69af46ee1382">Luxemburg</a> differ from Canada in contexts such as size, their national public transportation networks can provide examples. </p>
<p>Such a radical vision may only be possible if transportation again becomes regulated in Canada.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161786/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cindy Hanson receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) for a Knowledge Synthesis Grant on mobility and public transportation in rural and remote Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacob Albin Korem Alhassan and Lori Hanson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many communities in Canada currently lack intercity and regional transportation. A national public transportation system would improve connectedness between cities and access to essential services.Jacob Albin Korem Alhassan, Instructor, Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, University of SaskatchewanCindy Hanson, Professor, Dept of Sociology and Social Studies, University of ReginaLori Hanson, Professor, Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, University of SaskatchewanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1099872019-01-22T14:46:11Z2019-01-22T14:46:11ZDar es Salaam’s new rapid bus system won international acclaim – but it excludes the poor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254941/original/file-20190122-100282-6dsmb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=403%2C199%2C3091%2C2127&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A costly commute.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/32737785713/sizes/l">World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bus rapid transit systems (BRT) have become <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jan/08/how-an-emerging-african-megacity-cut-commutes-by-two-hours-a-day-dar-es-salaam">the fashionable solution</a> to chronic traffic congestion and low quality public transport – endemic problems for many cities in developing countries. BRTs typically operate using dedicated bus lanes, while passengers pay their fares before boarding. The number of BRTs <a href="https://brtdata.org/">is growing rapidly</a> across the world: from 40 in 2007 to 170 in 2019 – and there are many more in the pipeline. </p>
<p>BRT has several prominent advocates around the world, including the <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/category/tags/bus-rapid-transit">World Bank</a> and NGOs such as the <a href="https://www.itdp.org/library/standards-and-guides/the-bus-rapid-transit-standard/">Institute for Transport and Development Policy</a> (ITDP) and <a href="http://wrirosscities.org/about/embarq-network">Embarq</a>. They <a href="https://www.itdp.org/library/standards-and-guides/the-bus-rapid-transit-standard/what-is-brt/">claim that</a> the system combines the flexibility of bus transit with the speed, reliability and capacity of rail systems, at a fraction of the cost. </p>
<p>It’s also regularly said that BRT fares can match those of pre-existing minibus operators, and that BRT buses cause less pollution. Such arguments fuel claims that BRT systems represent a “win-win” solution to public transport woes, benefiting the economy, the environment and the poor all at once. But <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/taken-for-a-ride-9780198839057?q=taken%20for%20a%20ride&lang=en&cc=gb">there’s evidence to show</a> that BRT proponents promise more than they can deliver, especially for society’s most vulnerable. </p>
<h2>Enter Dar es Salaam</h2>
<p>Dar es Salaam, in Tanzania, is one of the fastest growing cities in Africa. It’s home to an estimated <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/dar-es-salaam-population">6m people</a>, and to DART – the most ambitious BRT system in Africa. Split into six phases, DART has triggered a major overhaul of the city’s road infrastructure – by its completion, 137km of new roads will have been built. Since the launch of phase one in 2016, travel times have been greatly reduced, leading Chris Kost, Africa director of the ITDP, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jan/08/how-an-emerging-african-megacity-cut-commutes-by-two-hours-a-day-dar-es-salaam">to claim</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Bus rapid transit has been transformational for Dar es Salaam. For millions of people in African cities, this is their best hope of ever being connected.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But while some groups do indeed benefit, this rosy outlook obscures the fact that some people are left worse off. Take the issue of fares, for example. Though <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/taken-for-a-ride-9780198839057?q=taken%20for%20a%20ride&lang=en&cc=gb">DART officials pledged</a> that BRT fares would be comparable to those of the daladalas – the minibuses which provided the cheapest form of public transport in Dar es Salaam before BRT – today, DART fares cost <a href="https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/BRT-finally-take-off-today/1840340-3197264-158yn78z/index.html">on average 55% more</a>. This fare inflation is common to BRTs elsewhere in the world, and was even the cause <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-17320247">of violent protests</a> in Bogotá, in Colombia. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254950/original/file-20190122-100279-1e1wh05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254950/original/file-20190122-100279-1e1wh05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254950/original/file-20190122-100279-1e1wh05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254950/original/file-20190122-100279-1e1wh05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254950/original/file-20190122-100279-1e1wh05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254950/original/file-20190122-100279-1e1wh05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254950/original/file-20190122-100279-1e1wh05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Daladalas stuck in traffic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cokeeorg/332513131/sizes/l">CokeeOrg/Flickr.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite investments of US$150m for the first phase of BRT, the poor are still stuck in traffic on cheaper buses every day. By contrast, those who are wealthy enough to afford the higher fare have the option of cutting travelling time by two hours a day. Roughly 70% of Tanzanians live on less than 4,400 Tanzanian shillings a day, (that’s <a href="https://www.exchange-rates.org/Rate/USD/TZS">less than US$2</a>). Yet a two-way commute along the main branch of the BRT would cost <a href="https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/BRT-finally-take-off-today/1840340-3197264-158yn78z/index.html">1,300 shillings</a> – that’s a staggering 30% of poor people’s daily income being spent on transport. By comparison, the same commute by daladala would have cost 800 shillings. </p>
<p>What’s more, the lack of jobs is a major problem in Dar es Salaam, as in many other metropolises in developing countries. Since BRT buses can carry more passengers than minibuses, about <a href="https://www.dailynews.co.tz/news/dart-project-starts-taking-expected-shape.aspx">ten daladalas</a> will be displaced by each BRT bus. This will have devastating consequences for the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/taken-for-a-ride-9780198839057?q=taken%20for%20a%20ride&lang=en&cc=gb">20,000 to 30,000</a> people employed in public transport. There are currently no plans to address the fate of these workers. </p>
<p>BRT advocates commonly praise it as a financially self-sufficient bus transport system. But BRT in Dar es Salaam, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-needs-to-revamp-its-new-public-transport-system-84930">as elsewhere in the world</a>, is not sustainable without public subsidies – even with its current high fares. Whether or not the Tanzanian government is willing to subsidise the system <a href="https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/Dart-feared-to-crash-without-govt-subsidy/1840340-3023050-wudbeiz/index.html">remains to be seen</a>. But in a country with very limited public resources, doing so would divert funding from other vital development needs. </p>
<h2>A fix for finance</h2>
<p>BRT systems are, by and large, financed through World Bank loans, which need to be repaid. The nature of these loans opens up public transport in African cities to international finance, and to the private companies which operate the systems under lucrative public-private partnerships contracts. The benefits of these arrangements to governments in developing countries <a href="http://www.world-psi.org/sites/default/files/documents/research/rapport_eng_56pages_a4_lr.pdf">are questionable</a>. </p>
<p>And NGOs which are active in BRT promotion, such as ITDP, <a href="https://www.itdp.org/what-we-do/public-transport/">depend on funding streams</a> related to BRT implementation, such as funds for producing BRT planning guides, carrying out BRT feasibility and impact studies and facilitating access to BRT financing for urban authorities in developing countries. </p>
<p>If such organisations are evangelical about the benefits of BRT, and silent about their shortcomings, it could be because it’s in their financial interests to see new systems implemented around the world. But public transport should be designed with the interests of cities’ most vulnerable residents at heart; especially those who cannot afford higher fares, or stand to lose their livelihoods when current systems are reformed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matteo Rizzo has previously worked for the International Transport Workers' Federation in relation to BRT in Africa. </span></em></p>Bus Rapid Transit has powerful supporters around the world – but shouldn’t public transport be designed in the public interest?Matteo Rizzo, Senior Lecturer in Development Studies, SOAS, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/993482018-07-30T12:51:49Z2018-07-30T12:51:49ZTransport experts explain why buses come in threes – and which one you should get on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229809/original/file-20180730-106496-t9r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C339%2C4075%2C2482&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-april-5-2018-three-routemaster-1069804874?src=fkQQRUYQtYoFzyr8ZGaQxQ-1-42">Shutterstock.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s typical – you’re waiting at a bus stop for ages, then three buses come along at once. Should you just hop on the first one, or skip to the second or third? Various tech companies are trying to produce apps to help commuters plan for this <a href="https://ts.catapult.org.uk/2017/02/10/innovation-railway-stations/">type of event</a>. But until those are up and running, some basic knowledge of the transport system – and a bit of mathematics – can help you make the call. </p>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12469-010-0024-7">Studies have actually proven</a> that buses which run at short intervals often cluster in threes. The theory goes that when there’s been a delay, the first bus picks up all the waiting passengers: those who have been waiting for some time, and those who have only been there a few minutes and had planned to get a slightly later bus. </p>
<p>This brings about further delays, because – as we all know – more congested vehicles <a href="https://www.matec-conferences.org/articles/matecconf/pdf/2016/10/matecconf_iconcees2016_03005.pdf">take longer to load and unload</a>. So the first bus often gets caught in a vicious circle of delay and overcrowding. </p>
<p>The simple solution is to get on the second bus. It’s likely to be less crowded, and to arrive at its destination first. This is because bus operators often instruct the second bus to overtake the first, in order to minimise delays. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229813/original/file-20180730-106508-afd35t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229813/original/file-20180730-106508-afd35t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229813/original/file-20180730-106508-afd35t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229813/original/file-20180730-106508-afd35t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229813/original/file-20180730-106508-afd35t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229813/original/file-20180730-106508-afd35t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229813/original/file-20180730-106508-afd35t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">First isn’t always best.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/perth-scotland-uk-april-29-2014-533964043?src=nx31xi6HXRg1h_KWFlmeoA-1-51">Jonathan Mitchell Images/Shutterstock.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The risk in opting for the second bus is that the buses may have already changed order. Look to see if the road before your stop has multiple lanes, which could have allowed the second bus to overtake. And check to see if there are plenty of seats on the first bus – if there are, then jump on that one. </p>
<p>And what about the third bus? This should be avoided wherever possible, because two things, which could cause more problems, are likely to happen. It could be instructed to get in front of the first two buses by skipping a stop – which could be yours. </p>
<p>It could also be ordered to terminate before the advertised destination, so that it can return earlier and prevent the delays that the first bus could carry forward into the journey in the opposite direction, by replacing it.</p>
<p>Funnily enough, people who travel by train on a regular basis will probably find that the same theories of transport capacity also apply to commuter trains. So, when you’ve got to choose between a three buses, our advice is to target the second, consider the first and ignore the third.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99348/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Top tips from transport academics: target the second, consider the first and ignore the third.Marcus Mayers, Visiting Research Fellow, University of HuddersfieldDavid Bamford, Professor of Operations Management, University of HuddersfieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/999032018-07-25T10:22:15Z2018-07-25T10:22:15ZAlmost 60% of journeys are made by bus – so why has funding been halved?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229091/original/file-20180724-194158-1f7ffdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A sad fate for England's bus service. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/light_arted/5302569201/sizes/l">light_arted/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Buses are Britain’s most frequently used form of public transport. Last year, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/666759/annual-bus-statistics-year-ending-march-2017.pdf">4.4 billion bus trips</a> were made across England. And buses account for <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/666843/tsgb0102.ods">59% of all public transport trips</a> in Great Britain (compared with 21% by rail). But since 2010, local authority funding for buses <a href="http://bettertransport.org.uk/sites/default/files/research-files/Buses-in-Crisis-2018_0.pdf">has halved</a>, and thousands of services have been cut. </p>
<p>This affects everyone, but especially people on low incomes, the young and the elderly. Without immediate action to halt the decline of Britain’s buses, many could be left without a way to access vital services and opportunities – and ultimately, excluded from society. </p>
<p>In England, the young and the elderly collectively account for <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/666759/annual-bus-statistics-year-ending-march-2017.pdf">nearly half</a> of all bus passengers; children under 16 account for 19%, and those aged over 60 account for 25%. Fewer bus services mean their travel options shrink significantly. Working age people – that’s 21- to 59-year-olds – tend to travel more by train. </p>
<p>England’s lowest income people also make <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/550557/nts0705.xls">75% of their public transport trips</a> by bus. If we divide the population up into five groups – from the lowest income, to the highest income – then the lowest income group makes <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/550557/nts0705.xls">three times as many</a> bus trips as the highest income group. By comparison, the highest income group make 20% fewer public transport trips and 75% more private transport trips, while travelling more by train than bus. </p>
<p>Bus services are particularly important to those without access to a private car or van. For them, bus journeys make up <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/550557/nts0705.xls">43% of motorised trips</a> – compared with just 4% among people who have access to private transport. Those lower-income households without a car or van also made <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/632851/nts0702.ods">30% fewer trips</a> overall in 2016. </p>
<p>But even those households with a car or van suffer from poor public transport options: around <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X17304869#bib103">9% of all UK households</a> have a low income but high motoring costs. Without good public transport, these households have no option but to find savings elsewhere, to meet the cost of driving.</p>
<h2>How did it come to this?</h2>
<p>Outside London, England’s bus market was deregulated and privatised in the mid-1980s, which means that local authorities don’t plan and manage the bus network. Instead, private bus operators decide where, when and how frequently to run buses. Since bus operators are focused on routes that can deliver a profit, the service can be sparse, and tends to be focused on peak hours. </p>
<p>Local authorities can choose to fund socially inclusive bus services to complement the for-profit network - but these services have been hit particularly hard by successive governments’ cuts to local authority budgets. This is because – unlike social care – local authorities are not obliged by law to fund bus services. </p>
<p>Since 2010, local authority bus funding has <a href="http://bettertransport.org.uk/sites/default/files/research-files/Buses-in-Crisis-2018_0.pdf">dropped by 46%</a> – from £374m in 2010-11, to £203m in 2017-18. A few local authorities have <a href="https://www2.oxfordshire.gov.uk/cms/content/supported-transport">cut all subsidies</a>: for example, in Oxfordshire, <a href="https://bettertransport.org.uk/roads-nowhere/local-transport">a 2015 FOI request</a> from the Campaign for Better Transport revealed the agreed total budget for supported bus services in the fiscal year 2018-19 <a href="https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/472775/response/1143676/attach/html/3/13396%20FOI%20Bus%20Service%20Provision.pdf.html">was zero</a>. There, the community <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/06/rural-town-austerity-buses-witney">had to step in</a> to run their own, not-for-profit service. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229099/original/file-20180724-194137-1p5z009.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229099/original/file-20180724-194137-1p5z009.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229099/original/file-20180724-194137-1p5z009.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229099/original/file-20180724-194137-1p5z009.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229099/original/file-20180724-194137-1p5z009.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229099/original/file-20180724-194137-1p5z009.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229099/original/file-20180724-194137-1p5z009.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Local authority spend on buses in England for each financial year from 2010 to 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Buses in Crisis Report.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bus usage has also been in long-term decline: over the past two decades, miles travelled by bus have <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/bus02-vehicle-distance-travelled#table-bus0205">fallen 17%</a>. In 1990-1, bus trips <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/550557/nts0705.xls">accounted for 74%</a> of all public transport trips in Great Britain – today, it’s 59%. </p>
<p>But this isn’t just a result of people switching to other forms of transport. The decline in miles travelled by bus is driven by a steep fall in travel on local government funded bus services. Travel fell <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/bus02-vehicle-distance-travelled#table-bus0205">46.6%</a> over the decade to 2016-17, and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/666759/annual-bus-statistics-year-ending-march-2017.pdf">13.8%</a> between 2015-16 and 2016-17 alone. Meanwhile, over the same decade, bus miles travelled on commercially operated services have only increased by 1.8%. </p>
<h2>Stopping the fall</h2>
<p>Over the last 25 years, bus usage per person has increased by 52% in London, <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/transport-committee/news-parliament-2017/health-of-bus-market-inquiry-launch-17-19/">while falling by 40%</a> in England’s other metropolitan areas. <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/666759/annual-bus-statistics-year-ending-march-2017.pdf">More than half</a> of all bus trips in England now happen in London. London has, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-londoners-are-taking-the-tube-a-transport-researcher-explains-94754">to some extent</a>, managed to buck the long-term downward trend, because unlike in the rest of England, the bus market there was not deregulated.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229097/original/file-20180724-194146-m94lv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229097/original/file-20180724-194146-m94lv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229097/original/file-20180724-194146-m94lv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229097/original/file-20180724-194146-m94lv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229097/original/file-20180724-194146-m94lv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229097/original/file-20180724-194146-m94lv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229097/original/file-20180724-194146-m94lv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Buses galore.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/davidbill/2347763953/sizes/o/">davidsbill/Flickr.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>London retained its ability to strategically plan and manage the routes, frequency, times of operation and fares of its buses. Its model means that profitable routes can cross-subsidise less profitable – but socially important – routes. What’s more, having control of the bus network means all the different modes of public transport can be organised to deliver better travel options to all, and a viable alternative to the car. </p>
<p>In 2017, the UK government passed the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/664318/bus-services-act-2017-new-powers-and-opportunities.pdf">Bus Services Act</a> – a tacit acknowledgement that the current deregulated bus market model is not working. The new law gives combined authorities with a directly elected mayor similar powers over bus regulation to London. </p>
<p>Only <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/search?ei=oDxYW5TdA-aMgAabzZ_ADw&q=https%3A%2F%2Fresearchbriefings.files.parliament.uk%2Fdocuments%2FCBP-7545%2FCBP-7545.pdf&oq=https%3A%2F%2Fresearchbriefings.files.parliament.uk%2Fdocuments%2FCBP-7545%2FCBP-7545.pdf&gs_l=psy-ab.3...916.916.0.1191.1.1.0.0.0.0.90.90.1.1.0....0...1.2.64.psy-ab..0.0.0....0.uIq1GcqO_X4">six regions</a> currently qualify: Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, Greater Manchester, Liverpool City Region, Tees Valley, the West of England and West Midlands. Elsewhere, local government services are being cut further, while private companies provide limited services at high prices (over the past two decades bus fares across England have risen <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/search?ei=oDxYW5TdA-aMgAabzZ_ADw&q=https%3A%2F%2Fresearchbriefings.files.parliament.uk%2Fdocuments%2FCBP-7545%2FCBP-7545.pdf&oq=https%3A%2F%2Fresearchbriefings.files.parliament.uk%2Fdocuments%2FCBP-7545%2FCBP-7545.pdf&gs_l=psy-ab.3...916.916.0.1191.1.1.0.0.0.0.90.90.1.1.0....0...1.2.64.psy-ab..0.0.0....0.uIq1GcqO_X4">45% in real terms</a>). </p>
<p>The Bus Services Act also bans local authorities from setting up their own bus service. Well run municipal bus companies could save local authorities money which could blunt the severity of bus cuts - Nottingham and Reading are successful examples of this model.</p>
<p>Regulating the bus market would clear the way for bus services to address transport inequality and poverty. Bus services help tackle social exclusion and loneliness, and allow those living outside the city centre and without a car to access employment, education and healthcare. As bus services are cut, not only do many people’s travel options shrink or vanish – so does their ability to be a part of society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole Badstuber received funding for her doctoral research into urban transport governance from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council via the research programme Transforming the Engineering of Cities. Nicole currently works at the UCL Transport Institute as Knowledge Exchange Coordinator. Previous research projects Nicole worked have separately been funded by MacArthur foundation, the New Climate Economy, the European Innovation Council via Horizon 2020 and UCL. Nicole is a ordinary student member of the Labour party. Nicole has previously volunteered for the charity Campaign for Better Transport. This article does not reflect the views of any organisation Nicole has been or is associated with.</span></em></p>An expert crunches the numbers to reveal just how bleak Britain’s bus crisis has become.Nicole Badstuber, Researcher in Urban Transport Governance at the Centre for Transport Studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/901262018-02-28T16:12:51Z2018-02-28T16:12:51ZBuses could be history sooner than you think – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207878/original/file-20180226-122025-1bte9y1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/raver_mikey/4810158853/">Gene Hunt/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1890, no one foresaw the rise of the internal combustion engine: horses were the fastest means of transport, and a status symbol. Today, society stands at a similar tipping point. No one can really predict how transport will be used in the coming century, or if people will even need to travel as much as they do today. But some of the most commonly used modes of public transport may be closer to extinction than previously thought. </p>
<p>Buses have been a reliable feature of urban and rural landscapes for more than 200 years. They have helped to define communities; think of London’s red double-decker bus, or the iconic Greyhound bus across the US. And buses have traditionally been a great social leveller: ethnic minority groups fought <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-was-rosa-parks-and-what-did-she-do-in-the-fight-for-racial-equality-51539">hard for the right</a> to share the same seats and stops and the poor enjoy the same regulated prices as the middle class.</p>
<p>Yet the end of the bus has already been signalled. In the UK, there has been a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/666759/annual-bus-statistics-year-ending-march-2017.pdf">reported decline</a> in <a href="http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/popular-statistics#passenger-journeys">bus and train usage</a> over recent decades – and it’s not related to the nation’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42831655">sluggish economy</a>. Today, <a href="https://www.motoringassist.com/Global/Banners/GM%20Spring%202018.pdf">only 5% of journeys</a> are made by bus, with 10% by rail, 1% by air, 1% by bicycle and 83% by car or taxi. </p>
<h2>Automation domination</h2>
<p>The UK has added <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/642759/taxi-private-hire-vehicles-2017.pdf">45,000 more private hire vehicles</a> in the last year, driven by Uber and similar ride-sharing companies. These organisations are dominant in London, but they are <a href="http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2016/09/scheduled-uber-rides-roll-out-to-8-more-uk-cities-today-and-deploys-mapping-cars-in-the-capital/">becoming more active</a> in other metropolitan areas. </p>
<p>Uber rolled out to eight areas across the UK in 2016, and <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/gett-buys-radio-taxis-as-it-looks-to-fight-off-uber-2016-3">Gett has grown</a> by acquiring and repurposing traditional taxi companies such as Radio Taxis. And point-to-point minibus services, such as those piloted by <a href="https://travelwest.info/drive/new-shared-ride-to-work-service-slide-bristol-launches-in-bristol">Slide</a> in Bristol, UK, and <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/11/21/ford-applies-launch-six-chariot-bus-routes-london/">Chariot</a> (backed by Ford) in San Francisco, US, are also expanding into more cities. Surely it’s just a matter of time before their reach expands properly into rural areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207903/original/file-20180226-140204-ochkii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207903/original/file-20180226-140204-ochkii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207903/original/file-20180226-140204-ochkii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207903/original/file-20180226-140204-ochkii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207903/original/file-20180226-140204-ochkii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207903/original/file-20180226-140204-ochkii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207903/original/file-20180226-140204-ochkii.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/642759/taxi-private-hire-vehicles-2017.pdf">Get the data: Department for Transport</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to a British think-tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research, the convenience and automation provided by digital technology such as smart phones puts <a href="https://www.ippr.org/files/2018-01/cej-managing-automation-december2017.pdf">63% of transport jobs</a> at risk of replacement over the next 50 years. Plus, fleets of autonomous vehicles are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coming-transport-revolution-could-deal-a-death-blow-to-car-ownership-85547">set to decimate the automotive industry</a>, potentially reducing the number of vehicles required in the UK by over 75%. </p>
<h2>A cheaper ride</h2>
<p>This transport revolution does provide an opportunity to increase the quality of service and to reduce subsidies, where they exist, by increasing efficiency. It could also lower transport staff numbers and the amount of cash spent on fuel. But all of this will come at a cost.</p>
<p>People who use public transport have traditionally <a href="https://www.gov.uk/run-local-bus-service">enjoyed “positive” regulations</a>, which ensures usage is fair and open to all. Subsidies from local or city government go towards servicing underused routes – in rural areas, for example – and offering discounted or free fares for young people and pensioners. But now, this model is coming under increasing pressure. </p>
<p>The cost of running a public transport system is effectively fixed in advance, and relies on enough passengers actually travelling to cover the costs. The average number of journeys per worker, per week <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/657839/commuting-in-england-1988-2015.pdf">dropped</a> from 7.1 in 1988-92 to 5.7 in 2013-14, leading to a shortfall in expected demand. And changes in the funding rules mean there is no guarantee that operational subsidies will be available going forward; indeed, the central government has already <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34923879">removed its grant</a> for London’s transport body. </p>
<p>A similar fate awaits metro systems and commuter rail services, and the problem will become chronic if – or rather, when – autonomous vehicles start to spread. </p>
<h2>New rules</h2>
<p>Silicon Valley tech start ups are now subsiding journeys with discounted travel to get into the transport market. But this is not for the economic benefit of users. Rather, it undermines the existing transport systems and create new, unregulated markets. This could lead to travellers paying whatever the monopoly dictates. In all likelihood, surge pricing will occur, forcing the less affluent into the least popular time slots and the least desirable vehicles. </p>
<p>Perhaps regulating these new modes of transport is part of the answer. But it’s also important to consider how subsidies are applied. One <a href="https://ts.catapult.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Mobility-as-a-Service_Exploring-the-Opportunity-for-MaaS-in-the-UK-Web.pdf">line of thought</a> is that subsidies should be focused on areas where travel choice is restricted. But budgetary pressures could easily mean leaders choose to reduce, rather than redistribute, the subsidy. This would lead to further inequality between the rich and the poor, in a world where social mobility is becoming <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/transport-institute/pdfs/transport-poverty">increasingly difficult</a>.</p>
<p>To inform reasonable regulations and fair subsidy strategies, there needs to be a consensus, or some leadership, about the ultimate aims of transport; whether it’s for growing the economy, connecting communities or something else. In the UK this is more difficult due to governmental structures, whereby ministers focusing on delivery modes (such as rail, road and walking) rather than outcome (commuting, intercity travel and freight, for example). </p>
<p>But there are some good examples to follow, with countries such as Germany <a href="https://www.bmvi.de/EN/Home/home.html">rethinking transport</a> with a Department for Transport and Digital Infrastructure, which plans for a wider range of options to pursue social and economic goals. </p>
<p>One thing is for sure, there will be fewer buses around in the future. This disruption will effect communities, but this challenge could also create an opportunity to shape society to function better, by design. Future generations will live by different rules, have different values and be presented with different opportunities to us. The decisions we make today will have a real and lasting impact on those generations in ways we cannot yet understand – let’s hope we get it right for them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90126/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Buses are set to be replaced by private and autonomous vehicles – but it’s not clear how society is going to deal with it.Marcus Mayers, Visiting Research Fellow, University of HuddersfieldDavid Bamford, Professor of Operations Management, University of HuddersfieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/849302017-10-12T14:34:22Z2017-10-12T14:34:22ZSouth Africa needs to revamp its new public transport system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189396/original/file-20171009-6963-f5kst6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">KIM LUDBROOK/EAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past eight years the South African government has spent more than 130 billion rand on public transport <a href="https://www.gtac.gov.za/perdocuments/Transport%20PER.PDF">projects</a> in the country’s main cities. The projects included the refurbishment of rail services and the establishment of a new rapid rail and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems.</p>
<p>This is a lot of money by any standards. As a percentage of gross geographic product, South African cities devote about <a href="https://www.gtac.gov.za/perdocuments/Transport%20PER.PDF">twice</a> as much money to transport as other developing countries, and as much as four times more than some regions of the world. </p>
<p>The country should by now be celebrating the success of this investment. But sustaining the systems, especially the BRT systems, is proving to be difficult.</p>
<p>Even high ranking government officials have expressed doubts about the way things are going. The MEC for transport in Gauteng province, Ismail Vadi, recently <a href="http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/time-to-question-brt-systems-in-south-africa-says-vadi-transport-minister-2017-07-10/rep_id:4136">asked</a> whether government was getting value for money from the BRT systems. His concerns have been <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/pretoria-news/brt-cost-concern-10233816">echoed</a> by Joe Maswanganyi, the national minister of transport.</p>
<p>Maswanganyi suggested that it was time to rethink and redesign the systems to “stop draining money from the fiscus”. The BRT has been called a “<a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2017-07-10-brt-a-r15-billion-flop/">mammoth flop</a>” and “<a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-07-11-gauteng-brt-a-white-elephant-minister/">a white elephant</a>” in some media. </p>
<p>Those are exaggerations. But there are serious problems with the BRT.</p>
<p>Fixing them must focus on reducing costs and growing income. Running costs should automatically decline as the system matures. But to raise revenue levels, BRT must become better integrated with housing and other transport services so that more people use them and help pay for them. In particular, the BRT should work with minibus-taxis to help widen the net of BRT usage. The country needs better planning and funding to make this happen.</p>
<h2>Benefits and costs of BRT</h2>
<p>BRT systems represent a significant improvement compared to traditional metro transport systems. They use dedicated lanes and stations, modern buses, and smartcard payment systems to speed up public transport and give passengers a better quality service. </p>
<p>This comes at a price. BRT ticket prices are typically higher than Metrorail but are set to be competitive with the minibus-taxi offering.</p>
<p>South Africa’s BRT systems are currently transporting more than 120,000 passengers (one-way trips) every day. <a href="http://www.jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/view/96/105">Surveys</a> show that passengers generally prefer the comfort and speed of BRT to other modes like minibus-taxis. So, based on passenger numbers alone, BRT is not a failure.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189397/original/file-20171009-6950-yjjd1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189397/original/file-20171009-6950-yjjd1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189397/original/file-20171009-6950-yjjd1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189397/original/file-20171009-6950-yjjd1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189397/original/file-20171009-6950-yjjd1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189397/original/file-20171009-6950-yjjd1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189397/original/file-20171009-6950-yjjd1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Passengers walk from the Johannesburg Bus Rapid Transit system in Johannesburg. The system is proving to be unsustainably expensive for the South African government.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">KIM LUDBROOK/EAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the BRT systems in the country’s main cities, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Tshwane, are performing worse financially than was expected.</p>
<p>Between 2005 and 2016, a total of about R35.7 billion was <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/legislation/acts/2016/Division%20of%20Revenue%20Act%20(Act%203%20of%202016).pdf">allocated</a> for the planning, design and construction of integrated public transport networks countrywide. Costs are pushed up by national government’s <a href="https://www.gov.za/transport-public-transport-strategy-and-action-plan">commitment</a> to bring minibus-taxi operators into the system in such a way that they are no worse off than before. </p>
<p>This was partly driven by political pressure from taxi organisations, and partly to help bring an upgraded taxi industry into the formal transport network.</p>
<p>Despite these extra costs, South Africa’s spending on BRT systems is, per kilometre of busway, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-008-9163-y">on par</a> with many systems in Latin America and Asia. This suggests that the country has not overspent on infrastructure.</p>
<p>The problem is that <a href="http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/rea-vaya-battles-low-numbers-new-look-phase-1c-to-be-rolled-out-2014-07-11/rep_id:4136">fewer people</a> than forecast are using the systems. Fare revenues are lower than expected. </p>
<p>Take Rea Vaya, the BRT in the main economic hub of Johannesburg, as an example. Demand grew by about <a href="https://joburg.org.za/index.php?option=com_content&id=501&limitstart=1">6% a year</a> on average in the five years to 2016. </p>
<p>In 2016 Rea Vaya catered for about 50 000 passenger trips a day. This equates to about 1 100 daily boardings per kilometre of busway, <a href="http://brtdata.org/">but it’s far less</a> than the average of 8 000 for comparable systems in Africa, Asia and Latin America.</p>
<p>The productivity of each bus is low. Travel distances are long because of apartheid spatial planning and low densities. Seat turnover along the route is low and most passengers use the buses at peak times. The result is that Johannesburg and Cape Town have had to subsidise their BRT systems much <a href="https://www.gtac.gov.za/perdetail/Public%20Transport%20-%20technical%20report.pdf">more than planned</a>.</p>
<p>Subsidy expectations came from using some Latin American cities, which operate with zero subsidy, as a benchmark. Planners expected fare revenues to cover direct operating costs. For Rea Vaya, the direct <a href="http://www.sacities.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SACN_SOCF_FINAL.pdf">cost recovery ratio</a> is only about 30% and for Cape Town’s MyCiTi just over 40%. </p>
<p>Subsidies in itself is not the problem. Subsidies for public transport are widely accepted as a way of making cities work better and protecting the environment. </p>
<p>The issue is that South Africa’s BRT subsidies are too high and haven’t produced the desired results. One senses from the minister’s comments that government’s appetite for subsidising what are seen as underperforming systems is waning. Unless the entire public transport system makes a better impact, the programme is likely to stall.</p>
<h2>What can be done</h2>
<p>Cities have relatively little room for growing revenues by raising fares. Recent <a href="http://www.satc.org.za/assets/2b_hayes_meta.pdf">research</a> has shown that BRT demand in the Gauteng cities of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane is very sensitive to fares. Higher fares would also exclude the poorest passengers, which would not help to make the transport system more equitable.</p>
<p>The solution is to improve passenger numbers by bringing BRT closer to where people live, work and play. South African cities have lower population densities than <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anti.12135/full">cities in Latin America</a>. The demand for transport in South Africa is lower per square kilometre. </p>
<p>One way to bring people and BRT closer together is to develop housing along transport routes. This is already happening to a limited extent in Johannesburg’s <a href="http://www.corridorsoffreedom.co.za/">Corridors of Freedom</a> initiative. Mixed land use should also improve the productivity of buses and infrastructure. </p>
<p>Precincts served by BRT should also be made easier for pedestrians to use and more attractive to investors. </p>
<p>Bringing quality public transport within reach of more people requires more than just BRT. Recent studies <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/2263/58012">show</a> that existing and potential BRT users in Johannesburg value frequent, easily accessible transport and low fares more than short travel times. They want short walks to public transport. In other words, they want what minibus-taxis are already providing. </p>
<p>Bringing upgraded minibus-taxis into the formal network could greatly expand the number of people benefiting from investment in public transport. </p>
<p>South Africa should be putting more energy into integrating BRTs better with other public transport systems, including municipal buses, minibus-taxis and e-hail services like Uber. It should be working towards common cashless fare systems and easy transfers. Extending the special BRT corridors could follow at a slower pace.</p>
<p>Lastly, cities will have to find ways to raise additional revenues for public transport. These might include charging for the use and parking of cars in congested areas, or partnering with property developers to help build transport interchanges as commercial ventures. Pulling this off will require a wider conversation around whether South Africa wants the benefits of better public transport, and how it will pay for that.</p>
<p>The expansion and operation of bus rapid transit systems in South African municipalities can’t continue as it is. Government may withdraw its financial support unless cities can do three things: reduce costs, increase revenues and make the system work for more people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christo Venter receives research funding from the Volvo Research and Education Foundation. He provides policy and technical advice for government and operators on a range of transport issues. He is a member of the South African Institution of Civil Engineers. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary Hayes receives funding from the University of Pretoria</span></em></p>South Africa needs to review its approach to rolling out Bus Rapid Transit systems as the current model is proving to be too expensive and unsustainable.Christo Venter, Associate Professor in Transport Engineering, University of PretoriaGary Hayes, PhD Candidate in Transportation Planning, Council for Scientific and Industrial ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/549542016-02-19T03:23:08Z2016-02-19T03:23:08ZAustralian Infrastructure Plan has some way to go to give our cities what they need<p><a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/">Infrastructure Australia’s</a> latest report, <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/files/Australian_Infrastructure_Plan.pdf">Australian Infrastructure Plan</a>, is a substantial contribution to better infrastructure planning.</p>
<p>For our cities, it cogently argues for more compact settlement patterns and transport pricing reform. However, it has some substantial weaknesses.</p>
<h2>Integrating land use and transport priorities</h2>
<p>The report’s discussion about the need for more compact cities is impressive but falls into the same trap as the state governments it criticises for failing to adequately integrate land use development directions and transport priorities. </p>
<p>The Infrastructure Priority List is rather light on initiatives that will support development of Australia’s four largest cities as more compact cities, rather than just cities with a compact core.</p>
<p>For example, while many public transport projects are included, these are mainly rail projects focused on feeding central business districts. These are worthy projects that will improve services and promote <a href="http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/agglomeration-economies/">agglomeration economies</a>. However, they deal with only part of the overall public transport needs for development of more compact cities. </p>
<p>The report clearly recognises that higher-frequency public transport services will be needed more broadly across our cities. It includes some rail projects for growth areas and bus rapid transport in some locations. It does not focus sufficiently, however, on public transport, walking and cycling projects that will help the middle suburbs achieve their potential. </p>
<p>These are the areas where much more employment and residential development needs to take place if our cities are to become more compact. Supportive infrastructure, particularly public transport and active transport, is central to this goal.</p>
<p>Another illustration of the failure to adequately integrate land use and transport thinking is the discussion of servicing the outskirts of our cities. </p>
<p>A major reason these areas have infrastructure and service delivery problems is that their development densities are too low. Yet I found no reference to the need to increase densities in outer urban areas. This would help with issues such as the need to improve public transport services and associated cost-recovery rates. </p>
<h2>Urban governance</h2>
<p>There is useful discussion in the plan on governance matters but also a significant hole. </p>
<p>International conversations about cities currently emphasise the importance of someone being able to “speak for the city” and of cities having more financial autonomy. These matters are important for cities to have the resources to perform their roles more effectively and be more accountable for their performance. </p>
<p>The plan looks at the need to reform local government, as well as project planning and delivery arrangements, but does not consider the central governance question: “who speaks for our cities?”. This is a challenge that is fundamental to our cities’ common difficulties of sustaining long-term land use transport plans. </p>
<p>The apparent answer is “state governments” at present, but the recent Sydney introduction of a Greater Sydney Commission is a very innovative step to strengthen partnerships between the state and local governments at city-wide level. This move is recognition that the right answer needs to be wider than simply the state government. New governance arrangements should have figured more prominently in the report.</p>
<p>On funding, the report cites London on a number of occasions. There is no better city to use as a model, given that its population is about what Sydney and Melbourne can expect in 40 years – and that nobody does it better. London has already resolved the problem of “who speaks for the city”. </p>
<p>Under the mayor’s leadership, London is pursuing greater financial autonomy. The city is using measures such as <a href="http://www.afr.com/opinion/value-capture-is-infrastructure-magic-bullet-20151021-gkeqj9">value capture</a> quite aggressively to increase its financial autonomy. The plan discusses value capture to an extent, but it needs a stronger focus on this as a great funding opportunity for more autonomous and accountable cities.</p>
<h2>Externalities and pricing reform</h2>
<p>From a public transport perspective, the weak treatment of externalities is the biggest problem in the plan.</p>
<p>There is much discussion of congestion and recognition of potential issues of social disadvantage, but not much systematic recognition of other externalities of cities, particularly transport externalities. The assumption seems to be, for example, that:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>agglomeration economies (or wider economic benefits more broadly) will be recognised somehow and dealt with at an appropriate time in some way;</p></li>
<li><p>greenhouse gas emissions will be dealt with by whatever Australia decides to do to meet its international obligations;</p></li>
<li><p>air pollution externalities will be met by vehicle emission standards; and</p></li>
<li><p>accident and health externalities do not exist or are not important.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>This provides scant comfort for the pricing reform the plan proposes. Road pricing reform is about more than recovering infrastructure costs and making motorists aware of congestion costs. </p>
<p>It is about improving the efficient allocation of scarce resources by making road users (and public transport users) more accountable for all the net external costs attributable to their travel choices. This includes (for example) the air pollution costs that remain after emission standards are applied, the accident costs not covered by insurance, rising health costs from a lack of exercise linked to motor vehicle dependence, and the costs of greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>The report should have been much stronger on all the externalities involved in all modes of transport being internalised within reformed transport pricing arrangements. </p>
<p>The plan cites evidence that Australia’s urban public transport cost-recovery rates are low by comparison with similar cities elsewhere. If road pricing reform is implemented and includes a wide range of external costs, the case for increasing these cost-recovery rates is defensible, on two conditions:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>measures are in place to support particular disadvantaged groups (which could be through government funding of targeted fare concessions); and</p></li>
<li><p>external benefits of public transport (for example, agglomeration economies) are recognised as warranting cost-recovery rates that are less than 100%. </p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Road funding model</h2>
<p>The discussion about reforming the road funding model is hard to evaluate because the treatment of external costs of vehicle use is too vague. </p>
<p>If those costs were all internalised, as they should be for more efficient asset use, then it would be a mistake to hypothecate all the revenue in the road funding model to roads. The payments for air pollution damage, health and accident costs, for example, would need to be separated and be available for other uses that help lower such external costs. </p>
<p>More broadly, the process of determining road infrastructure priorities should not be ultimately devolved to the board of a road funding entity. It should be subject to an integrated process of planning land use and transport, to which that board contributes. Elected politicians ought to remain the ultimate decision-makers on major works.</p>
<h2>Infrastructure planning vs integrated planning</h2>
<p>The plan’s discussion about long-term infrastructure planning being “an opportunity to improve the value of community engagement” needs to provide more clarity about just what this means. </p>
<p>If long-term integrated land use transport planning had been undertaken more effectively in Australian cities, we would not need separate infrastructure agencies at federal and state levels. </p>
<p>If the report is suggesting community consultation on strategic infrastructure planning that is separate to what should be happening around long-term land use transport plans, which are becoming increasingly broad in international best-practice cities, then we will have <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-uneasy-marriage-planners-public-and-the-market-struggle-to-work-well-together-54405">very confused communities</a>.</p>
<p>The long-term process of planning integrated land use transport should be where strategic consultation takes place. Infrastructure would be <em>one</em> of the matters subject to consultation and infrastructure priorities <em>one</em> output from the planning process. </p>
<p>The fundamental discussion point needs to be what we want our cities to be like in 30 to 40 years’ time. Transport and other infrastructure discussions and priorities should be placed in the context of creating those cities. </p>
<h2>The market’s role in public transport</h2>
<p>The plan argues for more competition in the delivery of public transport services. </p>
<p>The cost savings it cites are essentially from settings where a private operator replaces a public operator (the greater the savings, the more bloated the initial public operator). International experience is that subsequent rounds of market testing, once a private provider is in place, deliver few savings.</p>
<p>Furthermore, recent research by David Hensher, from the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies at University of Sydney, suggests that if you have an efficient private operator operating under a negotiated performance-based contract, this will be <a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/lse/jtep/2015/00000049/00000001/art00008">as efficient as a tendered outcome</a>. The report does not seem to be aware of these important nuances.</p>
<h2>Improving the policy debate</h2>
<p>Infrastructure Australia has done much to raise the quality of debate about infrastructure planning and delivery. Its Australian Infrastructure Plan continues this contribution.</p>
<p>However, so far as our cities are concerned, the effectiveness of the plan will be compromised unless Infrastructure Australia walks the walk in terms of land use transport integration. It needs to align its priorities much more comprehensively with its well-framed land use development directions, and take a broader perspective on pricing reform and associated funding and governance matters. </p>
<p>This is about better integration and delivery in the broadest sense.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stanley receives funding from Australia's peak industry body for the bus industry, the Bus Industry Confederation. </span></em></p>Infrastructure Australia’s latest report is substantial but, critically, it fails to incorporate the transport thinking needed to develop more compact cities that work better for everyone.John Stanley, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, The Business School, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.