tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/chinese-new-year-8758/articlesChinese New Year – The Conversation2024-02-05T14:05:09Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2218332024-02-05T14:05:09Z2024-02-05T14:05:09ZIt’s the Year of the Dragon in the Chinese zodiac − associated with good fortune, wisdom and success<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572297/original/file-20240130-29-qtgnvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C31%2C5075%2C3383&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dragons on display in Shanghai. A dragon image is often used to symbolize China itself.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/dragon-lanterns-royalty-free-image/138233969?phrase=chinese+new+year+dragon&adppopup=true">Feng Wei Photography/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Among China’s traditional holidays and celebrations, none ranks higher in importance than the Lunar New Year (農曆新年). Also known as the Spring Festival (春節), or simply Chinese New Year, it marks the beginning of the year according to the traditional <a href="http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/special/china_general_lunar.htm">lunar calendar</a>. </p>
<p>The Lunar New Year usually starts sometime between late January and mid-February. In mainland China, official celebrations last for seven days as a <a href="https://studycli.org/chinese-holidays/2022">public holiday</a>. This Lunar New Year, which falls on Feb. 10, is the Year of the Dragon.</p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://religion.ufl.edu/faculty/core/mario-poceski/">scholar of Chinese religious history and culture</a> who was born in a Year of the Dragon. What fascinates me the most is how the celebrations are a reminder of the longevity and vibrancy of traditional Chinese culture.</p>
<h2>Food, gifts and celebrations</h2>
<p>At its core, the Lunar New Year is a celebration that brings the family together. Preparations start a week in advance and include cleaning and decorating the home, as well as shopping, especially for gifts and provisions, and food preparation.</p>
<p>A central event is the family dinner on the eve of the new year. The <a href="https://chinesenewyear.net/food/">choice of dishes</a> varies, reflecting family customs and local culinary traditions. Often it includes dumplings, spring rolls, cakes, fish and pork dishes. There is also a fair amount of drinking, especially traditional wines or liquor. Many of the dishes are assigned symbolic meanings. For instance, <a href="https://about.kaiserpermanente.org/health-and-wellness/recipes/good-luck-dumplings-for-the-lunar-new-year">dumplings</a> are given the shape of gold ingots to invoke good fortune.</p>
<p>Other customs associated with Lunar New Year celebrations include the giving of <a href="https://www.cosmopolitan.com/lifestyle/a38271745/chinese-new-year-red-envelopes/">red envelopes</a> containing money, usually by elders to younger members of the family. The red color, which is also featured prominently in Lunar New Year decorations, symbolizes prosperity and good fortune. </p>
<p>Traditionally, families and local communities burn firecrackers to mark the new year and ward off monsters. According to legend, the origin of the practice goes back to a story about a <a href="http://english.cctv.com/program/newshour/20100214/102277.shtml">monster called Nian</a>, who is believed to have been causing great harm to some villages. In response, the villagers are said to have set off explosions to scare off the monster, and the practice caught on. However, more recently the Chinese government has been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lunar-newyear-china-fireworks/chinas-millennium-old-fireworks-hub-grapples-with-bans-and-shifting-traditions-idUSKBN1FV10O">cracking down</a> on this traditional practice on the grounds of its being dangerous and polluting. </p>
<h2>Year of the Dragon</h2>
<p>Traditionally, the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/video/why-the-dragon-is-central-to-chinese-culture-ixxptu/">dragon is an auspicious symbol</a> of strength and power. It is also associated with good fortune, wisdom, success, protection and masculinity. In pre-modern China, it was associated with imperial rule and was prominently featured on the <a href="https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Flag_of_the_Qing_dynasty#Media/File:Flag_of_China_(1889%E2%80%931912).svg">first Chinese flag</a>, initially instituted by the Qing dynasty in 1862. To this day, a dragon image is often used to symbolize China itself. </p>
<p>Because of the dragon’s auspicious associations, dragon years tend to bring upticks in fertility rates. Considering China’s current shrinking population and deepening fertility crisis, some are expressing hope for a <a href="https://asianews.network/baby-boom-expected-in-china-during-dragon-year-not-enough-to-save-fertility-crisis/">baby boom</a> during the coming year, as certain parents may be motivated to bring dragon children into the world. </p>
<p>According to the Chinese <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/shaolan_the_chinese_zodiac_explained?language=en">zodiac signs</a>, each year in the lunar cycle is associated with a particular animal. This is a 12-year cycle that repeats itself. Thus, there are 12 animals, each associated with a year in the cycle: rat, ox, tiger, rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, goat, monkey, rooster, dog and pig. </p>
<p>Among the popular myths about the origins of the Chinese zodiac is one about a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zd9nd6f">great race</a> initiated by the Jade Emperor, the ruler of heaven, in order to measure time. As the rat won the race, it came to be listed first among the 12 animals of the zodiac. The order of the other 11 animals reflected their final position in the race. Each of the 12 zodiac animals came to represent certain characteristics believed to shape the personalities of individuals born in those years, with the dragon often considered to be the most auspicious of all.</p>
<h2>Origins of the lunar calendar</h2>
<p>Traditionally, the Chinese have followed their native lunar calendar, which is based on observations and measurements of astronomical phenomena. While modern <a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/law/2016/02/transition-from-the-lunar-calendar-to-the-western-calendar-under-chinese-law/">China adopted the Gregorian calendar</a> in 1912, traditional festivals such as the Lunar New Year still follow the old lunar calendar. </p>
<p>The origins of the lunar calendar may go back to the dawn of Chinese civilization, traditionally associated with the legendary Xia dynasty, said to have ruled from 2070 to 1600 B.C. The <a href="https://www.academia.edu/69633429/The_Origin_of_Chinese_New_Year">origins of the Lunar New Year celebrations</a> are also not entirely clear; some scholars believe they likely go back to the rule of the Shang dynasty, which lasted from 1600 to 1050 B.C. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman dressed in a festive red Chinese dress holds incense sticks, with a bowed head, as she offers them to a deity." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Chinese woman offers incense at a temple.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/chinese-new-year-is-the-most-important-traditional-royalty-free-image/1281307813?adppopup=true">Papakon Mitsanit/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Religiosity and Lunar New Year galas</h2>
<p>While the Lunar New Year is generally centered on the theme of family bonding, religious observances are also an integral part of the festivities. These include domestic rituals associated with popular Chinese deities, such as the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Introducing-Chinese-Religions/Poceski/p/book/9780415434065">Kitchen God and the God of Wealth</a>. Family members also make offerings and engage in other rituals related to ancestor worship. Commonly, these include food offerings and the burning of incense at home altars. </p>
<p>During this period, many people go to <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Introducing-Chinese-Religions/Poceski/p/book/9780415434065">Buddhist or Taoist temples</a>, as well as other places of worship. They engage in traditional forms of piety, including offering incense and praying for good luck and fortune. </p>
<p>A modern element in ushering in the Lunar New Year is watching the New Year’s Gala, a popular variety show that features singing, dancing, comedy and drama. It first aired in 1983, and ever since it has been broadcast countrywide by CCTV, the national TV broadcaster. It is the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/leisure/article/3121291/whats-deal-cctvs-spring-festival-gala-why-chinas-lunar-new">most-watched television program</a> in the world, with an audience that can reach as many as 700 million viewers. </p>
<h2>Largest human migration</h2>
<p>In recent decades, China has experienced drastic demographic changes, especially the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10225706.2018.1476256">migration of large rural populations</a> into big urban centers. </p>
<p>Additionally, China’s <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3135510/chinas-one-child-policy-what-was-it-and-what-impact-did-it">one-child policy</a> has had far-reaching effects on family structures and, consequently, on traditional customs and observances.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1006704/chinas-left-behind-kids-repeat-their-parents-tragic-choices">Millions of rural children</a> are living with their grandparents or relatives while their parents work in faraway cities. As a result, the Lunar New Year brings about the <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-01-19/What-is-the-world-s-largest-human-migration--Nmsd7OcJ8Y/index.html">largest human migration</a> in the world, as students and migrant workers do their best to get back to their families. </p>
<p>During this period, trains, buses and planes are packed with travelers, and tickets must be booked well in advance. That still <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-kicks-off-lunar-new-year-travel-rush-expects-record-9-billion-trips-2024-01-26/">remains the case</a> this year, despite China’s gloomy economic outlook. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People dancing on streets while carrying a large cutout of a dragon during the Chinese New Year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Chinese New Year parade.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/high-angle-view-of-dragon-dancer-on-street-during-royalty-free-image/574910351?adppopup=true">Puay Ng / EyeEm via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Celebrations outside China</h2>
<p>The Lunar New Year is also celebrated in other parts of Asia, including <a href="https://www.vietnamonline.com/tet/vietnamese-new-year-tet.html">Vietnam</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/21/dining/singapore-lunar-new-year.html">Singapore</a>, as well as in East Asian communities across the world. Usually, these celebrations have some unique features or assume local character. For instance, in Vietnam, where the festival is known as Tết, there is the preparation of various local dishes, along with parades and public performances. </p>
<p>In the U.S. and Australia, where there are substantial ethnically Chinese populations, <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/78636a4e77497a6333566d54/index.html">Chinese New Year festivals</a> and <a href="https://chineseparade.com/">parades</a> are held each year. Some of them feature the traditional dragon dances, which highlight the communal aspect of Lunar New Year festivities. </p>
<p>Over the centuries, the coming together for the Lunar New Year celebration has remained an important part of the cultural heritage for Chinese families, connecting the past to the present, wherever they happen to be. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-biggest-holiday-the-lunar-new-year-and-how-it-is-celebrated-175820">first published on Feb. 1, 2022</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221833/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mario Poceski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>According to the Chinese zodiac signs, each year in the lunar cycle is associated with a particular animal. The cycle repeats every 12 years.Mario Poceski, Professor of Buddhist Studies and Chinese Religions, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1979772023-01-27T16:38:48Z2023-01-27T16:38:48ZWhat effect will lunar new year have on COVID spread in China? Our modelling shows most people have already been infected<p>China stuck rigidly to a <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/375/BMJ-2021-066169">zero-COVID</a> policy until December 2022. This included travel restrictions, mass testing and mandatory quarantines. The rapid lifting of this strategy led to a surge of COVID infections across the country.</p>
<p>There have been concerns that the Chinese lunar new year travel in January may cause this wave of COVID to spread much further and faster, with significant numbers of hospital admissions and deaths.</p>
<p>Lunar new year involves hundreds of millions of people travelling across the country, and is considered to be the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/lunar-new-year-travel-rush-2019/index.html">world’s largest annual migration event</a>.</p>
<p>So how have things been tracking in China, and how will lunar new year trips affect COVID transmission? Our modelling may provide some clues.</p>
<p>This year lunar new year fell on January 22, though population movements for the celebrations began on January 7 and will run until February 15. Domestic travel was expected to peak around <a href="https://www.mot.gov.cn/zhuanti/2023chunyun/chunyundongtai/202301/t20230120_3741621.html">January 19</a>.</p>
<p>According to estimates from the <a href="https://www.mot.gov.cn/zhuanti/2023chunyun/chunyundongtai/202301/t20230109_3736002.html">Chinese Ministry of Transport</a>, the total number of lunar new year travellers is expected to have increased by 99.5% over the same period in 2022 and returned to 70.3% of what it was in 2019.</p>
<p>Through <a href="https://www.worldpop.org/covid19/">WorldPop</a>, a research group based at the University of Southampton which maps global population distribution for health and development, we have continued to analyse population movements and their relationship to COVID transmission throughout the pandemic. Our earlier <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2293-x">research</a> indicated that lunar new year movements contributed significantly to the initial spread of the virus in January 2020.</p>
<p>This new wave has largely been driven by the omicron sub-lineages <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/04-01-2023-tag-ve-statement-on-the-3rd-january-meeting-on-the-covid-19-situation-in-china">BA.5.2 and BF.7</a>. We used an <a href="https://github.com/wpgp/BEARmod">epidemiological model</a> to simulate the transmission of these omicron variants across 339 areas in mainland China from November 1, 2022 to February 28, 2023. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-is-running-rampant-in-china-but-herd-immunity-remains-elusive-197454">COVID is running rampant in China – but herd immunity remains elusive</a>
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<p>This work has not yet been peer reviewed but our model estimated changes in the number of susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered or isolated people within each area and their daily movements between areas. We incorporated numerous different sources of data, including intracity and intercity <a href="http://qianxi.baidu.com/">mobility data</a>, vaccine uptake data by province, and COVID-related <a href="https://index.baidu.com/v2/index.html#/">search index data</a> on the Chinese internet search platform Baidu.</p>
<p>An important element of our model is the R value, which indicates how many people on average one infected person will infect in a susceptible population. We estimated R using reported case information and other data.</p>
<p>We compared the results of our model with online survey data on COVID infections, and we tested different R values and epidemiological parameters to better assess the uncertainties around our estimates.</p>
<h2>Past the peak</h2>
<p>Baidu searches with the term “fever” showed that most Chinese areas reached a peak in searches around December 20.</p>
<p><strong>Baidu searches for ‘fever’</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505352/original/file-20230119-13-ttrsse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505352/original/file-20230119-13-ttrsse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505352/original/file-20230119-13-ttrsse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505352/original/file-20230119-13-ttrsse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505352/original/file-20230119-13-ttrsse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505352/original/file-20230119-13-ttrsse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505352/original/file-20230119-13-ttrsse.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changes in the Baidu search index for the term ‘fever’ in 255 Chinese areas relative to the mean level of the search index in August – October 2022.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Based on this and other data, and an R value of 10, further adjusted by intracity mobility data, our model estimated that COVID infections nationwide peaked around December 26 to 28. At that time, roughly 4.2% of the Chinese population were probably infected, as shown in the figure below.</p>
<p><strong>Estimated COVID infections in China</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506302/original/file-20230125-22-7vilv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506302/original/file-20230125-22-7vilv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506302/original/file-20230125-22-7vilv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506302/original/file-20230125-22-7vilv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506302/original/file-20230125-22-7vilv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506302/original/file-20230125-22-7vilv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506302/original/file-20230125-22-7vilv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Estimated daily COVID infections in China from November 2022 to February 2023, under different reproduction numbers. The shaded area shows the period of the lunar new year migration.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also estimated that infections in 76% of areas peaked in December and 21% between January 1 and 10. The remaining 3% would reach the peak after January 10. </p>
<p>By December 31, we believe 73%–79% of all people in China would have been infected in this wave.</p>
<p><strong>Estimated infection peaks by area</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506303/original/file-20230125-2999-3amwxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506303/original/file-20230125-2999-3amwxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506303/original/file-20230125-2999-3amwxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506303/original/file-20230125-2999-3amwxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506303/original/file-20230125-2999-3amwxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506303/original/file-20230125-2999-3amwxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506303/original/file-20230125-2999-3amwxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Estimated peak date of COVID infections in each area under an R value of 10.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our estimates under an R value of 10 are consistent with the recent reports released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The CDC reported that the positive rate of COVID tests peaked <a href="https://www.chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/szkb_11803/jszl_13141/202301/t20230125_263519.html">between December 22 and 27</a> across the country. China passed the <a href="http://www.nhc.gov.cn/cms-search/xxgk/getManuscriptXxgk.htm?id=f9dc81a1ff254460879af4be60f2dd2c">peaks</a> of fever-related outpatient visits for both rural and urban areas (peaked on December 23), emergency department visits (January 2) and admission of severe cases (January 5).</p>
<p>Our results are also consistent with the findings of recent online surveys on COVID infections conducted in different provinces. For example, the <a href="https://www.sccdc.cn/view.aspx?id=31245">Sichuan CDC</a> in the western province of China reported that the <a href="https://m.gmw.cn/baijia/2023-01/01/1303240814.html">overall infection rate</a> of its residents had exceeded 80% by January 1, with a peak between December 12 and December 23. And <a href="https://nynct.henan.gov.cn/2023/01-09/2669644.html">Henan</a> province in central China reported that its infection rate was 89% by January 6, after peaking on December 19.</p>
<h2>So what about lunar new year?</h2>
<p>Since most cities are estimated to have passed the peak of infections before January 10, and the majority of the population has already been infected, we expect the lunar new year travel will have a limited impact on the trajectory of COVID transmission in this wave across the country. </p>
<p>Of course, there may be subsequent waves of infections, for example in summer, due to waning immunity and the possible emergence of new variants.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-what-we-know-about-new-omicron-variant-bf-7-196323">COVID: what we know about new omicron variant BF.7</a>
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<p>We intend to refine our analysis with the latest data and publish a full report setting out our research in the coming weeks. But it’s important to note that at this stage, this work has not yet been peer-reviewed. </p>
<p>Whatever the precise estimates this and other models generate, it’s clear there are significant risks of severe disease and death among vulnerable groups such as the elderly. There’s also high pressure on health services, and relatively inadequate healthcare resources in rural areas. Measures like increased vaccine uptake in older people will be vital to ensuring the impact of COVID in China is reduced in future waves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197977/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shengjie Lai receives funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the EU H2020, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China. We collaborated with the School of Population Medicine and Public Health at the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences in this study. The authors thank Dr Michael Head for providing insightful comments to improve this study and report.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew J Tatem receives funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the EU Horizon 2020 program and the National Institutes of Health. </span></em></p>There have been concerns that lunar new year may cause the current wave of COVID infections in China to spread much further and faster. But the worst has likely passed.Shengjie Lai, Principal Research Fellow in Spatial Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of SouthamptonAndrew J Tatem, WorldPop Director, Professor of Spatial Demography and Epidemiology, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1758202022-02-01T13:15:23Z2022-02-01T13:15:23ZChina’s biggest holiday: The Lunar New Year and how it is celebrated<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443522/original/file-20220131-21-1cca89u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C6%2C2108%2C1400&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Grandparents are teaching Chinese calligraphy to their granddaughter and how to write Chinese New Year auspicious messages.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/grandparents-practising-chinese-calligraphy-for-royalty-free-image/1267808033?adppopup=true"> AsiaVision/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Among China’s traditional holidays and celebrations, none ranks higher in importance than the Lunar New Year (農曆新年). Also known as the Spring Festival (春節), or simply Chinese New Year, it marks the beginning of the year according to the traditional <a href="http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/special/china_general_lunar.htm">lunar calendar</a>. </p>
<p>The Lunar New Year usually starts sometime between late January and mid-February. In 2022, it falls on Feb. 1. In mainland China, official celebrations last for seven days as a <a href="https://studycli.org/chinese-holidays/2022">public holiday</a>. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://religion.ufl.edu/faculty/core/mario-poceski/">scholar of Chinese religious history and culture</a>, what fascinates me the most is how the celebrations are a reminder of the longevity and vibrancy of traditional Chinese culture. </p>
<h2>Food, gifts and celebrations</h2>
<p>At its core, the Lunar New Year is a celebration that brings the family together. Preparations start a week in advance and include cleaning and decorating the home, as well as shopping, especially for gifts and provisions, and food preparation.</p>
<p>A central event is the family dinner at the New Year’s eve. The <a href="https://chinesenewyear.net/food/">choice of dishes</a> varies, reflecting family customs and local culinary traditions. Often it includes dumplings, spring rolls, cakes, fish and pork dishes. There is also a fair amount of drinking, especially traditional wines or liquor. Many of the dishes are assigned symbolic meanings. For instance, dumplings are given the shape of gold ingots, <a href="http://en.people.cn/102759/203348/7626674.html">to invoke good fortune</a>. </p>
<p>Other customs associated with the New Year celebrations include the giving of <a href="https://www.thatsmags.com/shanghai/post/17261/explainer-why-chinese-people-give-red-envelopes">red envelopes</a> containing money, usually by elders to younger members of the family. The red color, which is also featured prominently in New Year decorations, symbolize prosperity and good fortune. </p>
<p>Traditionally, families and local communities burn firecrackers to mark the new year and ward off monsters. According to legend, the origin of the practice goes back to a story about a <a href="http://english.cctv.com/program/newshour/20100214/102277.shtml">monster called Nian</a>, who is believed to have been causing great harm to some villages. In response, the villagers are said to have started off explosions to scare off the monster, and the practice caught on. However, more recently the government has been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lunar-newyear-china-fireworks/chinas-millennium-old-fireworks-hub-grapples-with-bans-and-shifting-traditions-idUSKBN1FV10O">cracking down</a> on this traditional practice, on the grounds of it being dangerous and polluting. </p>
<h2>Year of the tiger</h2>
<p>This new year is known as the year of the tiger. In Chinese culture, the tiger is considered to be the foremost among all beasts and serves as a potent symbol of power, majesty, vigor and bravery.</p>
<p>According to the Chinese <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/shaolan_the_chinese_zodiac_explained?language=en">zodiac signs</a>, each year in the lunar cycle is associated with a particular animal. This is a 12-year cycle that repeats itself. Thus, there are 12 animals associated with each year in the cycle. These are the rat, ox, tiger, rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, goat, monkey, rooster, dog and pig. </p>
<p>Among the popular myths about the origins of the Chinese zodiac, there is one about a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zd9nd6f">great race</a> initiated by the Jade Emperor, the ruler of heaven, in order to measure time. As the rat won the race, it came to be listed as first among the 12 animals of the zodiac. The order of the other 11 animals reflected their final position in the race. </p>
<p>Each of the 12 zodiac animals came to represent certain characteristics believed to shape the personalities of individuals born in those years. For the tiger, the positive qualities noted above can also mix with negative traits, such as a propensity to be thoughtless or overly ambitious. </p>
<h2>Origins of the lunar calendar</h2>
<p>Traditionally, the Chinese have followed their native lunar calendar, which is based on observations and measurements of astronomical phenomena. While modern <a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/law/2016/02/transition-from-the-lunar-calendar-to-the-western-calendar-under-chinese-law/">China adopted the Gregorian calendar</a> in 1912, traditional festivals such as the New Year still follow the old lunar calendar. </p>
<p>The origins of the lunar calendar may go back to the dawn of Chinese civilization, traditionally associated with the legendary Xia dynasty that ruled from 2070 to 1600 B.C. The <a href="https://www.academia.edu/69633429/The_Origin_of_Chinese_New_Year">origins of the actual New Year celebrations</a> are also not entirely clear; some scholars believe they likely go back to the rule of the Shang dynasty from 1600 to 1050 B.C. </p>
<h2>Religiosity and New Year’s gala</h2>
<p>While the New Year is generally centered around the general theme of family bonding, religious observances are also an integral part of the festivities. These include domestically oriented rituals associated with popular Chinese deities, such as the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Introducing-Chinese-Religions/Poceski/p/book/9780415434065">Kitchen God and the God of Wealth</a>. Family members also make offerings and engage in other rituals related to ancestor worship. Commonly, these include food offerings and the burning of incense at home altars. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman dressed in a festive red Chinese dress holds incense sticks, with a bowed head, as she offers them to a deity." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443532/original/file-20220131-17-ef2jy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Chinese woman offers incense at a temple.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/chinese-new-year-is-the-most-important-traditional-royalty-free-image/1281307813?adppopup=true">Papakon Mitsanit/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>During this period, many people go to <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Introducing-Chinese-Religions/Poceski/p/book/9780415434065">Buddhist or Taoist temples</a>, as well as other places of worship. They engage in traditional forms of piety, including offering incense and praying for good luck and fortune. Large temples tend to become very busy, with long lines of worshipers often waiting for hours in order to offer their first incense of the year.</p>
<p>A modern element in ushering the New Year is watching the New Year’s Gala, a popular variety show that features singing, dancing, comedy and drama. It first aired in 1983, and ever since it has been broadcast to a countrywide audience by CCTV, the national TV broadcaster. It is the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/leisure/article/3121291/whats-deal-cctvs-spring-festival-gala-why-chinas-lunar-new">most watched television program</a> in the world, with an audience that can reach as high as a billion viewers.</p>
<h2>Largest human migration</h2>
<p>Over the recent decades, China has experienced drastic demographic changes, especially the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10225706.2018.1476256">migration of large rural populations</a> into big urban centers. China’s <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3135510/chinas-one-child-policy-what-was-it-and-what-impact-did-it">one-child policy</a> also brought about major changes in family structure, as most families were restricted to having only one child, which in turn made each child a center of attention and hope for the family. </p>
<p>This has had far-reaching effects on traditional customs and observances. Among the primary drivers of these developments are the significant changes in family structure and function. <a href="https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1006704/chinas-left-behind-kids-repeat-their-parents-tragic-choices">Millions of rural children</a> are living with their grandparents or relatives, while their parents work in faraway cities. </p>
<p>Consequently, the Lunar New Year brings about the <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-01-19/What-is-the-world-s-largest-human-migration--Nmsd7OcJ8Y/index.html">largest human migration</a> in the world, as millions of students and migrant workers do their best to get back to their homes and families. During this period, trains, buses and planes are packed with travelers, and tickets must be booked well in advance. </p>
<p>This year’s celebrations have been impacted by <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/24/china/china-wuhan-lockdown-two-years-mic-intl-hnk/index.html">travel restrictions</a> and other <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-cities-high-covid-19-alert-peak-lunar-new-year-travel-season-starts-2022-01-17/">strict measures</a> imposed by the Chinese government in its efforts to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00191-7">control the COVID-19 pandemic</a>. China is also <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/59882774">hosting the Winter Olympics</a>, which bring further restrictions to the movement of people due to a heightened emphasis on preventing incidents that might reflect negatively on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/22/world/asia/winter-olympics-china-beijing-xi-jinping.html">China’s international image</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People dancing on streets while carrying a large cutout of a dragon on the Chinese New Year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443529/original/file-20220131-27-1rgsgb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A Chinese New Year parade.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/high-angle-view-of-dragon-dancer-on-street-during-royalty-free-image/574910351?adppopup=true">Puay Ng / EyeEm via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Celebrations outside of China</h2>
<p>The Lunar New Year is also celebrated in other parts of Asia, including <a href="https://www.vietnamonline.com/tet/vietnamese-new-year-tet.html">Vietnam</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/21/dining/singapore-lunar-new-year.html">Singapore</a>, as well as across the world. Usually, these celebrations have some unique features or assume local character. For instance, in Vietnam, where the festival is known as Tết, there is the preparation of various local dishes, along with the holding of parades and public performances. </p>
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<p>In the U.S. and Australia, where there are substantial ethnically Chinese populations in cities such as San Francisco, New York and Sydney, <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/78636a4e77497a6333566d54/index.html">Chinese New Year festivals</a> and <a href="https://chineseparade.com/">parades</a> are held each year. Some of them feature the traditional Dragon Dances, which highlight the communal aspect of New Year festivities. </p>
<p>Over the centuries, the coming together for the New Year celebration has remained an important part of the cultural heritage for Chinese families, connecting the past to the present, wherever they might happen to be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175820/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mario Poceski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Lunar New Year celebrations that start on Feb. 1 will go on for a week. It is the year of the tiger, considered in Chinese culture as the foremost among all beasts.Mario Poceski, Professor of Buddhist Studies and Chinese Religions, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1743852022-01-31T15:51:15Z2022-01-31T15:51:15ZYear of the Tiger: An opportunity for bold changes in combatting anti-Asian racism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443040/original/file-20220127-4399-1mqraac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3489%2C2331&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This year, Lunar New Year falls on Feb. 1 and welcomes in the year of the water tiger.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/year-of-the-tiger--an-opportunity-for-bold-changes-in-combatting-anti-asian-racism" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2784490">Anti-Asian racism is a public health emergency</a>. Since the pandemic began, Asian people have been experiencing <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/21/one-third-of-asian-americans-fear-threats-physical-attacks-and-most-say-violence-against-them-is-rising/">record amounts of denigration, hatred and racism</a>. </p>
<p>Feb. 1, 2022, marks the Lunar New Year, welcoming the year of the <a href="https://foreverconscious.com/chinese-astrology-year-of-the-water-tiger-2022">Water Tiger</a>. Like the tiger, we are fierce, tenacious and courageous in our continued fight against anti-Asian hate and racism — <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/bire/3/2/article-p187_187.xml">one of COVID-19’s shadow pandemics</a>. </p>
<p>As an Asian woman, I’ve thought more about my Asian ancestry, identity and <a href="https://theconversation.com/asian-heritage-month-gold-ribbons-show-hope-and-solidarity-amid-anti-asian-violence-157664">childhood experiences of racism</a> this past year than I ever have before. Exposure to stories of <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/61-year-old-asian-man-head-stomped-in-brutal-nyc-attack-dies-8-months-later/3486154/">Asians being beaten to death</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/woman-killed-after-being-pushed-onto-tracks-at-times-square-subway-station/3497589/">pushed in front of trains</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/10/13/1045746655/1-in-4-asian-americans-recently-feared-their-household-being-targeted-poll-finds">continuously targeted</a> knowing these only represent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/cap0000305">10 per cent</a> of actual accounts, takes a heavy toll. </p>
<p>Racist and insensitive comments like being told we are “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/01/04/viewer-complains-korean-anchor-very-asian-mc-mh-orig.cnn">too Asian</a>” or that the pandemic is “<a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/asian-man-berated-in-montreal-grocery-store-by-woman-angry-about-covid-19-1.5728844">because of you Chinese people</a>,” only adds to this heavy toll, increasing vicarious trauma and the experience of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0011000006292033">race-based traumatic stress</a>.</p>
<p>Almost a year ago, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-atlanta-attacks-were-not-just-racist-and-misogynist-they-painfully-reflect-the-society-we-live-in-157389">after the Atlanta attacks</a>, our news feeds were flooded with stories addressing anti-Asian racism. There were <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/03/26/stop-asian-hate-asian-americans-across-us-demand-reforms/6990150002/">protests and cries of support</a> from community members and allies. Those protests and cries haven’t stopped, nor have our our communities’ suffering, but media has seemingly stopped caring. </p>
<p>We need to take this opportunity, as we ring in the Lunar New Year to boost Asian pride, remind ourselves of our strength, increase access to culturally relevant mental health services and demand bold changes.</p>
<h2>Prevalence of anti-Asian racism</h2>
<p>Data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reveals that <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/anti-asian-hate-crimes-rose-73-last-year-updated-fbi-data-says-rcna3741">hate crimes against Asian Americans rose 73 per cent in 2020</a> compared to 2019. And an Angus Reid poll shows <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7932426/anti-asian-discrimination-canada-poll/">71 per cent of Asian Canadians surveyed felt that anti-Asian racism worsened</a> in 2021. </p>
<p>Canada, in fact, has the more incidents of anti-Asian racism per capita than the United States — more than <a href="https://www.project1907.org/reportingcentre">double the number of those reported in the U.S</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.project1907.org/reportingcentre">Vancouver has the greatest number of anti-Asian</a> attacks in North America. And according to the World Health Organization, Canadian women of <a href="https://www.vawlearningnetwork.ca/our-work/backgrounders/examining_the_intersections_of_antiasian_racism_and_genderbased_violence_in_canada_/Examining-the-Intersections-of-Anti-Asian-Racism-and-Gender-Based-Violence-in-Canada.pdf">East Asian descent were responsible for 72 per cent of filed reports</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://projectprotech.ca/addressing-racism/asian-americans-who-experienced-covid-related-racism-report-increased-levels-of-anxiety-depression-and-ptsd/">Seventy-two per cent of Asian Americans who reported a hate crime</a> said discrimination was more stressful than the pandemic. A sense of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0011000019891992">interpersonal shame</a> <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/tra0000821">and stigma</a> can <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/tra0000821">also adversely affect health</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman and a child play on a tiger decoration they are both crouched, pretending to claw and growl at each other." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442584/original/file-20220125-15-s8jeat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442584/original/file-20220125-15-s8jeat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442584/original/file-20220125-15-s8jeat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442584/original/file-20220125-15-s8jeat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442584/original/file-20220125-15-s8jeat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442584/original/file-20220125-15-s8jeat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442584/original/file-20220125-15-s8jeat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman and a child play on a tiger decoration, a Chinese zodiac which marks the year 2022, at a shopping mall in Beijing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andy Wong)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>We need <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/opinion-fighting-anti-asian-racism-requires-bold-action-not-passive-endurance/ar-AASTJAg?ocid=uxbndlbing">bold action</a> to incite longstanding and fundamental changes so the <a href="https://angusreid.org/anti-asian-discrimination/">next generation</a> will thrive, not just survive. We must demand investment in our Asian communities — the current narrative needs to be interrupted through radical action. </p>
<p>I am an Asian psychologist and professor who researches the impact of anti-Asian racism on the mental health of Asian Canadians. I direct an Asian mental health research team at my university and developed <a href="https://youtu.be/-HdPp0-laAY">a model for interrupting discrimination in education</a>. I founded the <a href="https://asiangoldribbon.com/">Asian Gold Ribbon campaign</a> that promotes <a href="https://news.athabascau.ca/faculty/faculty-of-health-disciplines/aus-dr-gina-wong-ft-on-ctv-morning-live-calgary-on-asian-gold-ribbon-day/">visible solidarity against anti-Asian racism</a> and contributes to a 21st-century Asian movement. With two young daughters, I was compelled to pave a way for new generations of Asian people to feel pride in who they are. </p>
<h2>Disproportionately served</h2>
<p>Asian people are disproportionately served when it comes to mental health supports. They are also <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2006.098541">the least likely to seek psychological help</a> and symptoms tend to be more pronounced when help is finally sought. </p>
<p>Research from the United States suggests there is an alarming shortage of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmmh.2021.100006">language-specific, culturally appropriate and sexuality-affirming mental health services for Asian people</a>. And culturally practised survival strategies tend to be insensitively misdiagnosed and pathologized. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1363461509351374">landscape in Canada is similar</a>. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TaM0OZS2ePY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Asian Gold Ribbon campaign’s Lunar New Year educational video.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But there are supports that exist. <a href="https://successbc.ca/counselling-crisis-support/">SUCCESS Chinese Helpline</a>, ensures Mandarin and Cantonese speaking therapists are available in British Columbia. The <a href="https://hongfook.ca/association/">Hong Fook Mental Health Association</a> in Ontario and <a href="https://www.theprojectlotus.org/about-1">Project Locus</a> are tackling <a href="https://time.com/5859206/anti-asian-racism-america/">the model minority stereotype</a>. The <a href="https://www.asianmhc.org/">Asian Mental Health Collective</a> is one of the most integrated organizations serving Asian people across the U.S. — it also publishes a directory for <a href="https://www.asianmhc.org/therapists-can/">Asian Canadian therapists</a>. </p>
<p>There’s a profound need for a systemic-cultural shift that makes way for accessible and affordable Asian mental health services across Canada. <a href="https://www.uvic.ca/news/topics/2022+expert-qa-anti-asian-racism+expert-advisory">Government leaders must support community-based organizations, outreach services</a> and develop clear and transparent policies. A task force for Asian Canadian mental health training and strategic allocation will ensure systems are built to provide viable resources to effectively support Asian communities. </p>
<p>Tigers are <a href="http://en.chinaculture.org/focus/focus/2010spring/2010-01/26/content_367583.htm">natural born leaders, loyal and tenacious</a> — so is the Asian community. Like tigers, we are brave and never back down. This Lunar New Year, let’s celebrate our Asian culture, our strength and be confident that actionable changes are coming.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174385/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gina Wong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As we ring in Lunar New Year, we need to celebrate Asian communities, their fierceness and courage; and demand bold changes for combatting anti-Asian racism and supporting well-being.Gina Wong, Professor, Psychologist, Athabasca UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1758702022-01-31T15:17:53Z2022-01-31T15:17:53ZChinese new year: your guide to everything from importance of the colour red to firework bans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443440/original/file-20220131-124991-1esb2k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C30%2C5040%2C3319&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/an-adult-giving-a-red-envelope-to-a-young-boy-7364259/">Angela Roma/Pexels</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>February 1 marks the start of the Chinese new year 2022, the <a href="http://www.vam.ac.uk/content/articles/c/chinese-zodiac-tiger/">year of the tiger</a>, and celebrations will end two weeks later with the Lantern Festival (元宵节). The tiger is the third animal of the 12-year cycle of Chinese zodiac signs, and famous people under this sign include Queen Elizabeth II, Marilyn Monroe, Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Cruise and Lady Gaga.</p>
<p>As the most traditional and celebrated holiday in Chinese culture, the lunar new year (also known as the Spring Festival (春节)) is not only a time to celebrate the beginning of spring but also an occasion for family reunion. In China, a wide range of celebration activities will be staged for two weeks: fireworks, firecrackers, festival decorations and a variety of shows. In the UK, celebrations too have been planned at home, in schools and online.</p>
<p>Family time is of utmost importance in Chinese culture. The run-up to new year’s eve is usually spent travelling, with everybody heading to their hometowns for family reunion. Houses and flats will get a deep clean in readiness for a fresh year ahead (having to sweep the floor on new year’s day is taboo and associated with sweeping good luck and wealth away).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Red Chinese Lunar New Year decorations hanging." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443437/original/file-20220131-13-jkrbzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443437/original/file-20220131-13-jkrbzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443437/original/file-20220131-13-jkrbzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443437/original/file-20220131-13-jkrbzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443437/original/file-20220131-13-jkrbzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443437/original/file-20220131-13-jkrbzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443437/original/file-20220131-13-jkrbzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Spring festival decorations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/eMUMOVmW0kM">Ethan Wong/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Every family will have a long list of festival necessities to buy for Chinese new year, including lots of red decorations, new year outfits and gifts. Festival decorations will be hung up, such as red paper-cuts on windows (窗花), and spring couplets and banners on doors (春联). Guarding gods posters will be pasted on entrance gates for safeguarding. Fireworks and firecrackers will be set off to scare away evil spirits and to signal the start of a safe and prosperous new year.</p>
<p>Red is considered the colour of luck. Once the new year arrives, new red outfits are worn to visit relatives and friends, to exchange blessings and gifts. During these visits, children will get red paper envelopes filled with cash notes (红包), symbolising that bad luck is driven away and good fortune is passed on. Apart from visiting loved ones, people also visit temples to worship ancestors and pray for health, success, fortune and a better year.</p>
<h2>What do people eat?</h2>
<p>Food also plays a crucial part in these celebrations and some dishes believed to bring luck will always be prepared – what they are varies greatly across China.</p>
<p>Fish (鱼) is a must as it is often seen as an “extra” (余), symbolising abundance. Sticky rice cake (年糕) will also be a favourite, and this is because the word in Chinese sounds like “year high”, meaning higher income and promotion. Oranges (桔) are considered lucky as the word sounds like “lucky” in Chinese (吉).</p>
<p>There are however some differences depending on where you are. In northern China, people like to eat dumplings (饺子) as they are thought to resemble gold ingots. Whereas in southern China, you are more likely to have ping-pong shaped sticky rice balls with sweet fillings (汤圆) as it sounds like the word for “togetherness” (团圆). It’s also common to have a tray of sweets or a platter of bite-sized treats symbolising reunion and togetherness.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A table of sticky rice cakes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443438/original/file-20220131-118399-muvn3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443438/original/file-20220131-118399-muvn3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443438/original/file-20220131-118399-muvn3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443438/original/file-20220131-118399-muvn3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443438/original/file-20220131-118399-muvn3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443438/original/file-20220131-118399-muvn3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443438/original/file-20220131-118399-muvn3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sticky rice cakes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/jakarta-indonesia-january-18-2020-chinese-1619690485">Darren Kurnia/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>On new year’s eve, waiting for midnight, family and relatives will enjoy eating together, playing games like mahjong, and watching the Spring Festival Gala on TV. Whether at home or overseas, this tends to be a must-do for many Chinese families. </p>
<h2>Traditions are changing</h2>
<p>Like all customs and traditions, things change over time. Today, red envelopes are often sent via apps such as WeChat, a messaging app that allows people to make mobile payments. Although the reunion dinner is still important, many Chinese families now prefer to eat out rather than cook together at home. Fireworks and firecrackers are often banned in respect of the environment, and it is not unusual to hear the cacophony of firecrackers played from recordings through speakers instead.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Dragon puppet being made to dance by men." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443439/original/file-20220131-125001-zn91i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443439/original/file-20220131-125001-zn91i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443439/original/file-20220131-125001-zn91i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443439/original/file-20220131-125001-zn91i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443439/original/file-20220131-125001-zn91i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443439/original/file-20220131-125001-zn91i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443439/original/file-20220131-125001-zn91i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dragon dancers at Chinese New Year celebrations in London’s China Town.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/china-town-london-february-22main-parade-254916118">Tadeusz Ibrom/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>But if some traditions have faded with time, others are still very much alive and passed on, from one generation to the next, through Chinese communities and Chinatowns worldwide. In the UK, there is a sizeable Chinese community who migrated from Hong Kong and south-east Asia in the 1950s, and from mainland China in the 1980s. Celebrations still feature red decorations, family gatherings and celebration events like parades with lively lion and dragon dances.</p>
<p>Before the pandemic, the largest celebrations in London would take place in Trafalgar Square, Leicester Square and Chinatown. While parades have again been cancelled this year, a rich choice of online activities has nevertheless been programmed throughout the UK. And, of course, with the Beijing Winter Olympics starting on February 4, there will be an added dimension to traditional activities. </p>
<p>But, no matter how much Chinese new year celebrations have changed over time or whether it is celebrated in China or throughout the Chinese diaspora, the heart of the Spring Festival remains the people, a strong sense of togetherness, and the idea that the year to come will be the chance for a new start that is brighter and more prosperous.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175870/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s the year of the tiger and families will gather to share in sticky rice cakes and dumplings hoping to start the lunar new year off right.Dr Jingjing Ruan, Lecturer in Mandarin Chinese, Cardiff UniversityCatherine Chabert, Reader, School of Modern Languages, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/541852016-02-05T15:18:09Z2016-02-05T15:18:09ZTwo extremes – how the rich and poor spend Chinese New Year<p>One of the biggest annual celebrations around the world is upon us. February 8 marks the start of the Lunar New Year in China. Also known as the Spring Festival, it is the most important holiday in the Chinese calendar, akin to Christmas in the West. An important time of family reunions and catching up with old friends, it is also a huge consumer holiday, as people usher in the year of the monkey. </p>
<p>Spending during this season in 2014 on shopping and dining was around 610 billion yuan – about US$100 billion. This is almost double the amount American shoppers spent over the Thanksgiving weekend. The festival is celebrated by everyone and, in a country of extreme wealth that is also home to <a href="http://www.bjreview.com/Opinion/201510/t20151016_800040481.html">7% of the world’s poor</a>, the way that it is celebrated varies greatly. </p>
<p>There are a <a href="http://www.statista.com/chart/3245/chinese-new-year/">few things</a> that all Chinese citizens have in common though. Most buy gifts for their parents and elderly family members, and 65% of respondents <a href="http://www.statista.com/chart/3245/chinese-new-year/">in a survey last year</a> showed that clothes were a favoured item. Other significant areas of spending are decorations and fireworks, party goods, transportation costs and New Year’s dinner. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110343/original/image-20160204-11389-unkco9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110343/original/image-20160204-11389-unkco9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110343/original/image-20160204-11389-unkco9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110343/original/image-20160204-11389-unkco9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110343/original/image-20160204-11389-unkco9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110343/original/image-20160204-11389-unkco9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110343/original/image-20160204-11389-unkco9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>Another Spring Festival custom is to give friends and relatives money in red envelopes known as <em>hongbao</em> for good luck. China’s internet companies began to capitalise on this two years ago, with the popular messaging app WeChat launching a way to share money through messaging. Last year saw 500m yuan (US$80m) <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2015-02/27/content_19665448_2.htm">transferred using the app</a>, which we can only expect to increase this year as other apps offer the service too.</p>
<h2>The long journey home</h2>
<p>No matter how far away family members may have migrated across China, they are expected to make the journey home. As a result, Chinese New Year is believed to be behind the largest movement of people in the world. Up to 2.91 billion trips are expected to be made this year via road, railway, air and water, up 3.6% from last year, <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-01/31/c_135060988.htm">according to the National Development and Reform Commission</a>, the country’s top economic planner. </p>
<p>Spare a thought for the 100,000 migrant workers <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/02/at-least-100000-chinese-new-year-travellers-stuck-at-railway-station?CMP=share_btn_tw">stuck in Guangzhou train station</a> in the heart of China’s manufacturing region due to train delays, as they try to make their long journey home for the holiday.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"694348371167985664"}"></div></p>
<p>Migrant workers are the backbone of China’s low-cost and labour intensive economy. They make up an <a href="http://factsanddetails.com/china/cat11/sub72/item150.html">estimated 278m</a> workers who have migrated from rural parts of China to work in the big cities and for many, Chinese New Year is their only holiday. It’s often the only chance they have to spend some time with their entire family, including children who are left with their grandparents. </p>
<p>Migrant workers also bring home their hard earned cash, which is vital to the local rural economy. Earnings from the big cities enable families to move into new and better homes, send their children to school, purchase livestock and other home additions such as new flat screen TVs.</p>
<h2>The other half</h2>
<p>A growing number of wealthier Chinese opt to avoid the New Year chaos and social obligations by travelling abroad for their holidays. Last year <a href="http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/travel/2016-01/27/content_23274851.htm">5.2m left mainland China</a> over the holiday. The most popular destinations are other countries in East Asia, as well as the US and Australia. </p>
<p>Chinese tourists are well known for spending big abroad. China is the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/china-markets-yuan-tourism-idUSL5N10M30H20150811">biggest outbound tourism spending country</a>, with vast amounts spent on luxury goods. Many <a href="https://theconversation.com/consumers-in-asia-buy-luxuries-for-different-reasons-to-the-west-45069">Chinese consumers</a> consider foreign products to be of superior quality and better designed than their domestic competitors – Hermès handbags, Burberry trench coats and Patek Philippe watches are often top of Chinese tourists’ shopping lists. </p>
<p>In 2015 Chinese consumers spent more than US$100 billion on luxury goods, accounting for <a href="http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-11/25/content_22516915.htm">46% of the world’s total</a>. Around 80% of these <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/29/global-luxury-goods-market-exceeds-1tn-euro">sales are made abroad</a>. Attracted by the weaker euro and Japanese yen, Chinese consumers are increasingly opting for Europe and Japan, instead of their traditional shopping hotspots of Hong Kong and Macau. </p>
<p>So as well as seeing the largest migration of its citizens as they crisscross the country, Chinese New Year sees a surge in spending by its elites both inside and outside of China. This feeds into the crucial shift the country is making from having an economic growth model driven by manufacturing to one based on consumption and services, of which tourism and entertainment are crucial elements.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Qing Shan Ding is affiliated with the British Labour Party and Served as Deputy Secretary General, Head of Academic Division, Member of National Executive Committee of Chinese Students and Scholars Association UK.
</span></em></p>With restaurants and retailers alone ringing up US$100 billion in sales, Chinese New Year is the world’s biggest consumer holiday.Qing Shan Ding, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, University of HuddersfieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/378932015-02-23T19:31:10Z2015-02-23T19:31:10ZNew Year celebrations give Chinese economy a hangover<p>China is in the middle of its annual economic hiccup. Forget the property sector that some fear is on the verge of imploding. And don’t worry about those scary shadow banks either. When it comes to China’s growth, nothing comes close to the effects of Chinese New Year.</p>
<p>You thought that traffic congestion on Australia’s motorways was bad when school’s out. China’s official news agency, <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2015-01/29/c_127437757.htm">Xinhua reports</a> that its population will make 2.8 billion trips during this holiday season. From February 18-24, the country will officially be on leave. </p>
<p>When everyone has arrived, not much will be produced but lavish banquets will be eaten, copious volumes of rice wine drunk and red packets stuffed with cash exchanged.</p>
<p>Of course, seasonal fluctuations in economic activity are something that economists in Australia are familiar with. The folk at the Australian Bureau of Statistics have been adjusting our GDP numbers for the effects of Christmas for years.</p>
<p>But in China it takes on Great Wall proportions.</p>
<p>That Chinese New Year comes so soon after the country has just finished producing the goods that filled our department store shelves at Christmas only makes the fluctuations appear even wilder.</p>
<p>Take a look at what happens to output. Both Australia and China have a seasonal peak in the December quarter and a seasonal trough in the March quarter.</p>
<p>But in Australia, in any given year the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0">value of output produced</a> in the December quarter is usually only around 14% more than in the March quarter. </p>
<p>In China <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/">it’s 53%</a>.</p>
<p>Put another way, if you look at consecutive fourth/first quarters, in Australia the value of output falls by around 6%. In China, it plunges by 25%.</p>
<p>This all takes some getting used to.</p>
<p>We never hear about the value of output falling. But it really does. It’s just that economists usually prefer to report and comment on data that has already had this seasonal effect stripped from it through some statistical wizardry. Sometimes though, it’s the seasonal effect that’s interesting.</p>
<p>Not only does the value of China’s output plunge in the March quarter, its composition changes radically too.</p>
<p>It’s become a cliché that economic growth in China leans heavily on investment and exports.</p>
<p>But there’s one quarter each year when any punter can predict that China’s economy will rebalance towards consumption and be sure to be right. In the March quarter last year, consumption accounted for 76.7% of the growth in GDP. That’s higher than in Australia.</p>
<p>Chinese New Year so badly distorts monthly retail sales data that in 2012 the hard-working boffins at China’s National Bureau of Statistics just gave up. Since then they’ve taken to only reporting a year-to-date value through the end of February and then starting again with the monthly releases in March.</p>
<p>Nowadays, the seasonality that comes with Chinese New Year also has an added twist. China’s economy has become so large that it gets exported.</p>
<p>But whereas Chinese New Year slows output growth in China, it gives it a boost in Australia.</p>
<p>Last year, the Year of the Horse arrived at the end of January. Sydney Airport reported that Chinese visitor traffic for the month was up an extraordinary 43% on the <a href="http://www.sydneyairport.com.au/investors/news-and-events/asx-releases/details/2014/syd-asx-releases/asx-140214-sydney-airport-traffic-performance-january-2014">same period just one year earlier</a>.</p>
<p>This year the firecrackers will be going off louder than ever.</p>
<p>Last month and just in time, Australia and China signed a new airline capacity deal. It immediately added 4000 seats from Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou to Australia’s gateway cities of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. <a href="http://trademinister.gov.au/releases/Pages/2015/ar_mr_150123.aspx">Another 7000 seats will follow by 2016</a>.</p>
<p>Then there’s an extra 26,500 seats a week for Chinese airlines flying from second and third-tier Chinese cities. And by second-tier cities, we mean those around the size of Sydney.</p>
<p>Hikes in capacity will bring good fortune to Australia’s tourism industry because at peak times, like Chinese New Year, the numbers in the old agreement were already maxed out.</p>
<p>Chinese buying clout also leaped over the past year as the Renminbi appreciated nearly 10% against the Australian dollar.</p>
<p>Remember, these aren’t just any run-of-the-mill tourists.</p>
<p>Tourism Research Australia says that <a href="http://tra.gov.au/publications/latest-ivs-report.html">each Chinese visitor spends 27% more</a> than those from the UK, 40% more than those from the US and 62% than those from Japan.</p>
<p>Welcome to the Year of the Goat (or is that a sheep?).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37893/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Laurenceson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In China, the value of output produced in the December quarter drops a staggering 53%. And it’s down to New Year celebrations.James Laurenceson, Deputy Director and Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI), University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/224762014-01-30T19:47:24Z2014-01-30T19:47:24ZRejoice, it’s Chinese New Year – no, wait, not here<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40167/original/dqw24n29-1391049843.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Did Australia actually begin the Year of the Horse on August 6, 2013?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Diego Azubel/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Today is the Chinese Lunar New Year – the <a href="http://www.sydneychinesenewyear.com/2014-year-horse/">Year of the Horse</a> – according to the <a href="http://www.timeanddate.com/calendar/gregorian-calendar.html">Western Gregorian Calendar</a>. All good? Light the firecrackers! But wait …</p>
<p>According to last year’s Southern Hemisphere Australian Chinese Calendar – <a href="http://www.academia.edu/4825143/The_construction_of_a_Chinese_medical_lunisolar_calendar1_for_the_Southern_Hemisphere">which I devised and wrote about here</a> – we in Australia already began the Year of the Horse on August 6, 2013. </p>
<p>And yet no-one, as far as I know, celebrated this important occasion on that date. It wasn’t marked in any way.</p>
<p>Why not?</p>
<h2>Going with the flow</h2>
<p>As we all know, the flow of seasons in Australia runs contrary to that of China and other regions in the northern hemisphere. </p>
<p>And so, in 2009, we celebrated the arrival of the Year of the Ox on January 26 of the Gregorian calendar, as it fell on the first day of the first month of the traditional Chinese calendar – which is to say “the day on which the astronomical new moon (i.e. conjunction) is <a href="http://astro.nmsu.edu/%7Elhuber/leaphist.html">calculated to occur</a>”.</p>
<p>In China and elsewhere in the northern hemisphere it was also just nine days before the start of the period known as the “Beginning of Spring” (<a href="http://www.nongli.com/item3/"><em>li chun</em></a>); whereas in the southern hemisphere we were approaching the end of the summer season.</p>
<p>This spurred me to embark on a research project to look into the traditional Chinese calendar and adapt its core principles to produce a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/chnstd.2012.13005">Chinese Medical & Agricultural Lunisolar Calendar (Northern & Southern Hemispheres)</a> relevant to Australia’s local conditions.</p>
<p>And this research project has now evolved into the <a href="http://chronoacupuncture.com/stemsbranches.php">Chinese Stems & Branches Temporal Calendar</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40181/original/8yhwh3fk-1391058957.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40181/original/8yhwh3fk-1391058957.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40181/original/8yhwh3fk-1391058957.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40181/original/8yhwh3fk-1391058957.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40181/original/8yhwh3fk-1391058957.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40181/original/8yhwh3fk-1391058957.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40181/original/8yhwh3fk-1391058957.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chinese performers portraying an imperial entourage during rehearsals of a recreation of the Sacrifice to Heaven ritual ahead of the Spring Festival in Beijing this week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Diego Azubel/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In short, this is a new global time system whereby the 60 (sexagenary) <a href="http://www.taoiststudy.com/content/sexagenary-cycle-ten-heavenly-stems-and-twelve-earthly-branches">Stem and Branch cyclical symbols</a> representing the flow of the years, lunar months, days and the 12 double-hour time periods of the traditional Chinese calendar are arrayed in tandem with the years, months and days of the Western Gregorian Calendar and the 24-hour system of <a href="http://www.timeanddate.com/time/aboututc.html">Coordinated Universal Time</a>.</p>
<p>With an Australian Chinese Calendar, we now have – assuming it’s used – a time system that can accurately pinpoint the exact date of our own Spring Festival. We also now have a tool to master the alternating flow of the four seasons in the southern hemisphere. </p>
<p>In Melbourne, I am currently using this time system in locating effective acupuncture points – <a href="http://chronoacupuncture.com/">chronoacupuncture</a> – in dealing with difficult clinical conditions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40182/original/7hw3nqws-1391059451.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40182/original/7hw3nqws-1391059451.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/40182/original/7hw3nqws-1391059451.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40182/original/7hw3nqws-1391059451.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40182/original/7hw3nqws-1391059451.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40182/original/7hw3nqws-1391059451.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40182/original/7hw3nqws-1391059451.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/40182/original/7hw3nqws-1391059451.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adrian Bradshaw</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So, to recap, in the (northern hemisphere) Chinese Calendar, today marks the first day of the first lunar month of the Year of the Horse – a day you will also hear being referred to as the Spring Festival. As the name suggests, this festival marks the end of the winter of the previous year and the beginning of spring in the coming new year.</p>
<p>Based on my calculations, Australia’s Spring Festival date for 2014 is July 26 – at which point we’ll enter the <a href="http://www.astrology.com/chinese-sign-sheep/2-d-d-49585">Year of the Sheep</a>.</p>
<h2>Four seasons</h2>
<p>The change from one season to another is a transformation of the <em>yin</em> and <em>yang</em>. The whole year can be seen as a cycle of warm spring, hot summer, cool autumn and cold winter. Warm and hot weather are considered <em>yang</em>, while cool and cold weather are <em>yin</em>.</p>
<p>We can be at one with the Chinese people and other peoples living in the northern hemisphere in observing the Spring Festival today. </p>
<p>At the same time, we – and those in the north – should be aware that this coming July 26 we will be welcoming the Year of the Sheep in Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22476/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rey Tiquia does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Today is the Chinese Lunar New Year – the Year of the Horse – according to the Western Gregorian Calendar. All good? Light the firecrackers! But wait … According to last year’s Southern Hemisphere Australian…Rey Tiquia, Honorary Fellow, School of Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.