tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/climate-data-7665/articlesClimate data – The Conversation2024-01-19T21:07:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213132024-01-19T21:07:32Z2024-01-19T21:07:32Z1 billion people left dangerously exposed to heat stress by gaps in climate monitoring<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570270/original/file-20240119-19-y6h5wq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C7360%2C4891&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ghaziabad-uttar-pradesh-india-may-12-2170143881">PradeepGaurs/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>2023 was the <a href="https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-confirms-2023-smashes-global-temperature-record">hottest year on record</a>. <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/climate-change-humidity-paradox/">Humidity is rising too</a>. Heat and humidity are a dangerous combination, threatening all aspects of our lives and livelihoods.</p>
<p>Climate change is pushing humid heat dangerously close to the <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71b9">upper limits of what people can survive</a>. Parts of the world are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg9297">on track</a> for conditions beyond the limits of human tolerance.</p>
<p>Yet <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.12.005">our new research</a> shows poor weather station coverage across the tropics leads to underestimates of heat stress in cities. This means global climate change assessments probably overlook the local impacts on people.</p>
<p>Concentrated across tropical Asia and Africa, informal settlements, commonly known as “slums”, are on the <a href="https://unhabitat.org/pro-poor-climate-action-in-informal-settlement">front line of climate exposure</a>. The shortfalls in climate monitoring leave these communities dangerously vulnerable to rising humid heat. With few options to adapt, millions could be forced to seek refuge away from the hottest parts of the tropics.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570282/original/file-20240119-15-ptsagy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World map showing percentage of population living in informal settlements by country, with dots indicating weather station sites" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570282/original/file-20240119-15-ptsagy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570282/original/file-20240119-15-ptsagy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570282/original/file-20240119-15-ptsagy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570282/original/file-20240119-15-ptsagy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570282/original/file-20240119-15-ptsagy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570282/original/file-20240119-15-ptsagy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570282/original/file-20240119-15-ptsagy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A map showing percentage of population living in informal settlements by country. Dots indicate weather station sites.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Emma Ramsay</span></span>
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<p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-warming-now-pushing-heat-into-territory-humans-cannot-tolerate-138343">Global warming now pushing heat into territory humans cannot tolerate</a>
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<h2>Why is heat such a threat in these places?</h2>
<p><a href="https://population.un.org/wup/publications/Files/WUP2018-PopFacts_2018-1.pdf">Rapid urbanisation</a> that outpaces planned, formal development is driving the growth of informal settlements. Their residents usually lack infrastructure and services, such as electricity and water supply, that many city dwellers take for granted. </p>
<p>More than <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2019/goal-11/">1 billion people live in informal settlements</a>. The United Nations expects this number to grow to <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2023/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Report-2023.pdf">3 billion over the next 30 years</a>. In countries such as Kenya or Bangladesh, nearly half the urban populations lives in informal settlements.</p>
<p>Most informal settlements are located in the tropics. Here it is hot and humid year-round, but their residents have few options to adapt to heat stress. </p>
<p>Most households in these settlements are on low incomes. Many residents <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101401">must work outdoors</a> for their livelihoods, which exposes them to heat and humidity. </p>
<p>On top of this, because informal settlements fall outside official systems and regulations, we often lack data about the threats they face.</p>
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<img alt="A farmer works in a rice field next to an informal settlement" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570004/original/file-20240118-19-m8smxw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570004/original/file-20240118-19-m8smxw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570004/original/file-20240118-19-m8smxw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570004/original/file-20240118-19-m8smxw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570004/original/file-20240118-19-m8smxw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570004/original/file-20240118-19-m8smxw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570004/original/file-20240118-19-m8smxw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People who must work outdoors to make a living, such as many residents of this settlement in Makassar, Indonesia, are highly exposed to heat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Revitalising Informal Settlements and their Environments, Monash University</span></span>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-growth-heat-islands-humidity-climate-change-the-costs-multiply-in-tropical-cities-120825">Urban growth, heat islands, humidity, climate change: the costs multiply in tropical cities</a>
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<h2>What’s missing from climate data?</h2>
<p>Most of the world’s population <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac30c0">lives more than 25km from a weather station</a>. This means weather stations rarely capture the full range of temperature and humidity in cities, which are usually hotter than non-urban surrounds – the <a href="https://www.australianenvironmentaleducation.com.au/climate-change/urban-heat-island-effect/">urban heat island effect</a>. These gaps in monitoring are largest across the tropics where most informal settlements are located.</p>
<p>As individuals we experience heat on a local scale, which isn’t captured by sparse weather station networks or meteorological models. If your home is too hot, a weather report telling you otherwise offers little respite. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.12.005">Our research</a> compiled local climate monitoring data from informal settlements in seven tropical countries. We compared these data to temperature and humidity measurements at the nearest weather station.</p>
<p>We found weather stations severely underestimate the heat stress that people experience in their homes and local communities. This means global climate assessments and projections also likely underestimate local-scale impacts. </p>
<p>Although these data come from a relatively small number of studies, they highlight a major hurdle for climate adaptation. Without accurate heat stress data, how can we ensure the most vulnerable communities are not left behind?</p>
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<img alt="Looking along a water channel towards an informal settlement in Makassar, Indonesia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570005/original/file-20240118-15-u3alzk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2835%2C1897&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570005/original/file-20240118-15-u3alzk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570005/original/file-20240118-15-u3alzk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570005/original/file-20240118-15-u3alzk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570005/original/file-20240118-15-u3alzk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570005/original/file-20240118-15-u3alzk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570005/original/file-20240118-15-u3alzk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Lack of accurate local data means climate adaptation efforts could overlook communities exposed to extreme heat and humidity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grant Duffy, Revitalising Informal Settlements and their Environments, Monash University</span></span>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-40-c-is-bearable-in-a-desert-but-lethal-in-the-tropics-206237">Why 40°C is bearable in a desert but lethal in the tropics</a>
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<h2>Even if they get a heat warning, options are limited</h2>
<p>During a heatwave in Australia we are usually told to <a href="https://www.redcross.org.au/heatwaves/#:%7E:text=non%2Dperishable%20foods.-,During%20a%20heatwave,you%20don't%20feel%20thirsty.">stay inside and drink lots of water</a>. For residents of an informal settlement, this advice might actually increase their risk of health impacts.</p>
<p>Heat can be even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2021.103248">worse indoors in informal housing</a> with poor ventilation and insulation. Very few households have air conditioning (or could afford to run it if they did). Residents might not have access to safe drinking water, adding to the health risks of heat stress.</p>
<p>What’s more, advice and alerts are unlikely even to reach informal settlements. A <a href="https://www.undrr.org/media/91954/download?startDownload=true">2023 World Meteorological Organisation report</a> found only half of the world’s countries have early-warning systems. </p>
<p>These systems are activated if forecast heat is above certain trigger levels. Health advice and alerts to the public can be backed by extra public health measures. <a href="https://www.icpac.net/">Regional climate centres</a> currently issue broad-scale alerts, but forecasts and responses need to operate at smaller scales to be effective.</p>
<p>And, as we have shown, forecasts are based on weather station data that underestimate heat in informal settlements. This means early-warning systems could fail to activate even though residents of these settlements will experience dangerous heat stress.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-will-the-tropics-eventually-become-uninhabitable-145174">Climate explained: will the tropics eventually become uninhabitable?</a>
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<hr>
<h2>What can be done to protect people?</h2>
<p>Current climate monitoring efforts have left millions of vulnerable people at risk of heat stress. This has direct <a href="https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000339">impacts on individual health and wellbeing</a>, with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01859-7">broader knock-on effects</a> for societies and national economies. </p>
<p>Meteorological institutes in developing countries need urgent support to strengthen climate monitoring and improve early-warning systems. The new head of the World Meteorological Organisation has <a href="https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/celeste-saulo-of-argentina-takes-office-secretary-general-of-wmo">promised to do just that</a>. We need to ensure governments and agencies, such as development banks and NGOs, capitalise on this opportunity and include informal settlements in new monitoring networks.</p>
<p>Inequalities in resources and adaptive capacities must also be overcome. Community-based initiatives such as urban greening and improved housing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01209-5">show promise to reduce urban heat</a>. Investing in these solutions must be a priority of adaptation efforts. </p>
<p>The alternative to adapting is to move. Climate-related migration is <a href="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ETR-2023-web-261023.pdf">already happening</a> due to sea-level rise and heat, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/climate-migrants-moving-south-to-tasmania/11800152">including here in Australia</a>. </p>
<p>People don’t leave their homes and uproot their lives without good reason. Finding solutions that help them adapt to climate change should be the priority. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climigration-when-communities-must-move-because-of-climate-change-122529">'Climigration': when communities must move because of climate change</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221313/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Ramsay received funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program and Monash University. This research was conducted as part of the Revitalising Informal Settlements and their Environments (RISE) program, funded by the Wellcome Trust, the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Asian Development Bank, the Government of Fiji, the City of Makassar and Monash University, and involves partnerships and in-kind contributions from the Cooperative Research Centre for Water Sensitive Cities, Fiji National University, Hasanuddin University, Southeast Water, Melbourne Water, Live and Learn Environmental Education, UN-Habitat, UNU-IIGH, WaterAid International and Oxfam</span></em></p>Most of the 1 billion people in informal settlements are in the tropics where the threat of humid heat is rising. Poor weather station coverage that misses local hotspots puts them even more at risk.Emma Ramsay, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Nanyang Technological University, and Research Affiliate, School of Biological Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2077852023-06-23T15:51:06Z2023-06-23T15:51:06ZThe melting Arctic is a crime scene. The microbes I study have long warned us of this catastrophe – but they are also driving it<p>The Arctic’s climate is warming at least four times faster than the global average, causing irrevocable changes to this vast <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/dramatic-changes-to-polar-ice-caps-revealed-on-new-map-of-arctic-and-antarctica-12898550">landscape</a> and precarious <a href="https://www.nwf.org/Educational-Resources/Wildlife-Guide/Wild-Places/Arctic#:%7E:text=The%20Arctic%20is%20a%20unique,in%20the%20summer%20to%20breed.">ecosystem</a> – from the anticipated <a href="https://earth.org/polar-bears-to-become-extinct-by-2100/">extinction of polar bears</a> to the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/as-arctic-sea-ice-melts-killer-whales-are-moving-in/#:%7E:text=Killer%20whales%20often%20feed%20on,navigate%20through%20the%20icy%20waters.">appearance of killer whales</a> in ever-greater numbers. A new <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8">study</a> suggests the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-ocean-could-be-ice-free-in-summer-by-2030s-say-scientists-this-would-have-global-damaging-and-dangerous-consequences-206974">as soon as the 2030s</a> – around a decade earlier than previously predicted.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532508/original/file-20230618-17-lemk5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Arctic sea ice changes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532508/original/file-20230618-17-lemk5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532508/original/file-20230618-17-lemk5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=700&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532508/original/file-20230618-17-lemk5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=700&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532508/original/file-20230618-17-lemk5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=700&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532508/original/file-20230618-17-lemk5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532508/original/file-20230618-17-lemk5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532508/original/file-20230618-17-lemk5e.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A new Arctic sea ice map compares the 30-year average with recent ten-year averages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/new-map-of-polar-regions-updated-to-reflect-ice-loss-name-changes-and-new-data/">British Antarctic Survey</a></span>
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<p>But to properly understand the pace and force of what’s to come, we should instead focus on organisms too small to be seen with the naked eye. These single-celled microbes are both the watchkeepers and arch-agitators of the Arctic’s demise.</p>
<p>Scientists like me who study them have become forensic pathologists, processing crime scenes in our Arctic field sites. We don the same white anti-contamination suits, photograph each sampling site, and bag our samples for DNA analysis. In some areas, red-coloured microbes even create an effect known as “blood snow”.</p>
<p>In this complex criminal investigation, however, the invisible witnesses are also responsible for the damage being done. Microbes testify to the vulnerability of their Arctic habitats to the changes that humans have caused. But they also create powerful climate feedback loops that are doing ever-more damage both to the Arctic, and the planet as a whole.</p>
<h2>Zipping headlong into icy oblivion</h2>
<p>My first visit to the Arctic was also nearly my last. As a PhD student in my early 20s in 2006, I had set out with colleagues to sample microbes growing on a glacier in the Norwegian archipelago of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/13/svalbard-the-arctic-islands-where-we-can-see-the-future-of-global-heating">Svalbard</a> – the planet’s northernmost year-round settlement, about 760 miles from the North Pole.</p>
<p>Our treacherous commute took us high above the glacier, traversing an icy scree slope to approach its flank before crossing a river at the ice’s margin. It was a route we had navigated recently – yet this day I mis-stepped. Time slowed as I slid towards the stream swollen with ice melt, my axe bouncing uselessly off the glassy ice. I was zipping headlong into icy oblivion.</p>
<p>In that near-death calm, two things bothered me. The water would carry me deep into the glacier, so it would be decades before my remains were returned to my family. And the ear-worm of that field season meant I would die to the theme tune to Indiana Jones.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
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<p>Thankfully, the scree slowed my slide – I lived and learned, quickly, that dead scientists don’t get to write up their papers. And I’m still learning about the tiny organisms that populate every habitat there: from seawater in the Arctic Ocean to ice crystals buried deep in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_sheet">Greenland ice sheet</a>.</p>
<p>These micro-managers of all manner of planetary processes are acutely sensitive to the temperatures of their habitats. The slightest change above freezing can transform an Arctic landscape from a frozen waste devoid of liquid water to one where microbes get busy reproducing in nutrient-rich water, transforming themselves in ways that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ismej2010108">further amplify</a> the effects of climate warming.</p>
<p>The Svalbard region is now warming seven times faster than the global average. While much of the world continues its efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in the Arctic, that battle was lost long ago.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0VOGGdeB8eI?wmode=transparent&start=17" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Joseph Cook’s film on the microbes that inhabit the Greenland ice sheet.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Decades ahead of us all</h2>
<p>It’s 2011, and <a href="http://www.earth.s.chiba-u.ac.jp/english/education/education02/staff16.html">Nozomu Takeuchi</a> is visiting Svalbard from Japan. It has been a difficult year back home, following the earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima nuclear incident, but Nozomu – a glacier ecologist and professor at Chiba University – is unrelenting in his quest to measure the effects of climate change. </p>
<p>Just hours after he stepped off a plane in the August midnight sun at Longyearbyen airport, we are marching up the nearest glacier. Above us, snow-capped mountain sides loom out of the swirling mist.</p>
<p>Since the 1990s, Nozomu has been collecting samples and measurements from glaciers all over the world. When we reach our goal near the snowline, he opens his rucksack to reveal a bento box full of sampling kit – stainless steel scoops, test tubes, sample bags, all arranged for efficiency. As he scurries around with practised efficiency, I think of offering help but fear I would only slow him down.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532612/original/file-20230619-27-w8e0xr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Scientist takes a reading in snowy Arctic landscape" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532612/original/file-20230619-27-w8e0xr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532612/original/file-20230619-27-w8e0xr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532612/original/file-20230619-27-w8e0xr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532612/original/file-20230619-27-w8e0xr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532612/original/file-20230619-27-w8e0xr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532612/original/file-20230619-27-w8e0xr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532612/original/file-20230619-27-w8e0xr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nozomu Takeuchi measuring the biological darkening of a Svalbard glacier in 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arwyn Edwards</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In truth, Nozomu is decades ahead of us all. Years ago, he made the link between the future of life and the death of ice, and these melting Svalbard glaciers are adding yet more points to his graphs.</p>
<p>Just as we apply oodles of factor 50 to protect ourselves from the Sun, so the billions of microbes sandwiched between the sky and surface of the glacier protect themselves by accumulating sunscreen-like pigments. And if enough of these pigments rest in one place under the Sun, this area of “biological darkening” absorbs the heat of the Sun much more effectively than reflective white snow and ice – so it melts faster.</p>
<p>Nozomu scoops up some of the so-called blood snow, heavily laden with algae. Under the microscope, their cells are indeed reminiscent of red blood cells. But rather than haemoglobin, these cells are laden with carotenoids – pigments also found in vegetables that <a href="https://academic.oup.com/femsec/article/94/3/fiy007/4810544?login=false">protect the algae from overheating</a>. Other patches of the glacier are verdant green, rich in algae that are busy photosynthesising light into chemical energy in this 24-hour daylight world.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532611/original/file-20230619-29-l44kho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man in icy landscape holding scientific sample" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532611/original/file-20230619-29-l44kho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532611/original/file-20230619-29-l44kho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532611/original/file-20230619-29-l44kho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532611/original/file-20230619-29-l44kho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532611/original/file-20230619-29-l44kho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532611/original/file-20230619-29-l44kho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532611/original/file-20230619-29-l44kho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author with a sample of ‘blood snow’, collected from a glacier surface.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arwyn Edwards</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Further down the glacier, the professor crushes some “dirty” ice into a bag. A different kind of algae lives here that, depending on your point-of-view, is either black, brown or purple (perhaps it depends on the tint of your sunglasses). The <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Chemical-structure-of-compound-3-purpurogallin-carboxylic-acid-6-O-b-d-glucopyranoside_fig2_51806131#:%7E:text=A%20gallotannin%20derivative%20(galloylglucopyranose%2C%20i.e.,et%20al.%2C%202012b)%20.">pigment</a> created is like the compounds that colour tea, and the algae keep it in layers like parasols above the photosynthetic factories within their cells – ensuring they have just enough sunlight to photosynthesise, but not enough to burn.</p>
<p>Open Google Earth and as you zoom in on the Arctic, you may spot the large dark stripe that scars the western margin of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_sheet">Greenland ice sheet</a>. This is the “dark zone”, but it’s not caused by dark <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20627-w">dust</a> or soot. It’s alive, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ismej2012107">laden with algae</a> – and it has been darkening, and growing, as Greenland warms.</p>
<p>Between 2000 and 2014, the <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2016.00043/full">dark zone’s area grew by 14%</a>. At 279,075 km² in 2012, it was already more than twice the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/summary/England#:%7E:text=Area%3A%2050%2C301%20sq%20mi%20(130%2C278,even%20with%20the%20entire%20kingdom.).%20This%20had%20a%20powerful%20impact%20on%20the%20rate%20of%20ice%20melt%20--%20areas%20blooming%20with%20algae%20%5Bmelt%20nearly%202cm%20more%20each%20day%5D(https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1918412117">size of England</a> than bare ice.</p>
<p>Next morning, I am woken by the smell of chemicals, having slept beneath a coffee table. Nozomu is busy processing his samples: bags of melting ice pinned to a clothesline by bulldog clips. They resemble bunting around the crowded room, but this is no time for celebration. The tint of each bag adds a measurement which quantifies the link between these algae, their pigments, and the death of their icy home.</p>
<h2>The case becomes urgent</h2>
<p>By the summer of 2014, glaciologists all over the world have started to listen to the warnings of pioneering ecologists such as Nozomu. The glaciers are dying even as life blossoms on their darkening surfaces. The case has become urgent.</p>
<p>I am in a helicopter, flying with colleagues to a camp in the dark zone on the Greenland ice sheet – the largest mass of glacial ice in the northern hemisphere. Covering 1.7 million km², its ice holds the equivalent of the water required to raise global sea levels by 7.7 metres.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532620/original/file-20230619-23-shc4a3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A landscape of dark ice intertwined with blue rivers of meltwater." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532620/original/file-20230619-23-shc4a3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532620/original/file-20230619-23-shc4a3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532620/original/file-20230619-23-shc4a3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532620/original/file-20230619-23-shc4a3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532620/original/file-20230619-23-shc4a3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532620/original/file-20230619-23-shc4a3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532620/original/file-20230619-23-shc4a3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A highly darkened surface of the Greenland ice sheet, rich in algae and incised with rivers of meltwater.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arwyn Edwards</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As we warm our climate, the rate of water flowing from this reservoir increases, with each degree Celsius added to global temperatures opening the drainage valve even wider. Feedback processes such as biological darkening have the potential to multiply the number of drainage valves that are open, hastening dramatically the rate at which sea levels rise.</p>
<p>To monitor this effect, every day <a href="https://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/ges/staff/karencameron/">Karen Cameron</a>, the leader of our camp this summer, walks to undisturbed patches of ice carrying a £100,000 backpack which contains a spectrometer to measure the darkness of the ice, capturing how it absorbs the solar energy that causes melting. The glaciologists are desperate for ground truth, and their models need data.</p>
<p>Up to this point, none of their predictions of how the Greenland ice sheet would respond to our warming climate have included biological darkening. Even if the effect were modest, it could still topple the ice sheet from a predictable, straightline response to climate warming.</p>
<p>All the time we are in Greenland, the only lifeforms we encounter are the flies that hatch from the fresh fruit and peppers in our food rations. These and the few types of glacier algae and several hundred kinds of bacteria that are biologically darkening the ice: a living scum scarring the surface of the ice sheet.</p>
<p>My work focuses on how these tiny organisms adapt to their icy habitat, but the implications of their behaviour are now of global concern. A <a href="https://screenworks.org.uk/archive/baftss-practice-research-award-2017/timeline">filmmaker</a> at the camp is weaving a thread between the ice melt in Greenland and its consequences for people living in coastal communities all over the world – from villages near my home on the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/this-is-a-wake-up-call-the-villagers-who-could-be-britains-first-climate-refugees">west coast of Wales</a>, to huge metropolises like Manhattan, Amsterdam and Mumbai, and even entire low-lying island nations in the Pacific.</p>
<p>As smaller glaciers fade, and the larger ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica start to respond with full force to our warming climate, it is these communities, capitals and countries that will bear the brunt of the flooding, inundation and erosion that comes with rising sea levels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532622/original/file-20230619-28-oh4l8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two scientists inspecting an ice corer device dripping with meltwater." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532622/original/file-20230619-28-oh4l8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532622/original/file-20230619-28-oh4l8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532622/original/file-20230619-28-oh4l8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532622/original/file-20230619-28-oh4l8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532622/original/file-20230619-28-oh4l8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532622/original/file-20230619-28-oh4l8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532622/original/file-20230619-28-oh4l8z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author (left) and Joseph Cook high on the Greenland ice sheet, meltwater dripping from their ice corer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sara Penrhyn Jones</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Before heading home, our helicopter takes us on a detour, high over the ice sheet. We fly over the brown-black-purple algae to brighter, higher elevations where the palette shrinks to the blue and white of water and ice, then snow and sky. Greenland makes its own weather and, in these higher elevations, we expect the ice to be frozen all year round. When we land and begin to collect snow samples and a small ice core, however, we find we are digging into slush. The ice has started to melt up here, too. </p>
<p>We heave up our ice corer, and meltwater dribbles out from its bottom. In periods of extreme warming, much of the surface of the ice sheet can experience melting episodes, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2015.00225/full">disturbing the slumbering microbes</a> stored within the otherwise permanently frozen surface. It’s a sobering moment for us all.</p>
<p>Flying back to camp, I watch the streams become rivers and lakes as we head back over the dark zone, where melt and microbes dominate the icescape. I contemplate how much water, once locked in the ice, will become free to flow into the sea and into millions of homes by the end of the century.</p>
<h2>Popping a pingo</h2>
<p>The frozen lands of eight nations encircle the Arctic. Their soils store vast quantities of carbon: a third of the planet’s entire quantity of soil carbon resides in this frozen ground.</p>
<p>The carbon is a legacy of soils formed in past climates and preserved for millennia. However, human-induced climate change is reheating this leftover carbon, providing a luxuriant food source for microbes resident within the <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/biome/biotundra.php">tundra</a>, which then emit it as greenhouse gases.</p>
<p>This is known as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permafrost_carbon_cycle#:%7E:text=Carbon%20emissions%20from%20permafrost%20thaw,which%20increases%20permafrost%20thaw%20depths.">permafrost carbon</a> feedback loop. When even modest quantities of this vast carbon store reach the atmosphere, warming accelerates – resulting in faster thawing of the tundra and the release of yet more greenhouse gases.</p>
<p>Furthermore, not all greenhouse gases are equal in their impact. While carbon dioxide is relatively abundant and stable for centuries in the atmosphere, methane is less abundant and shorter-lived, but remarkably powerful as a greenhouse gas – nearly 30 times more damaging to the climate than carbon dioxide, for the same volume.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532615/original/file-20230619-1823-ekek0j.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Scientist crouched on ice taking water samples." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532615/original/file-20230619-1823-ekek0j.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532615/original/file-20230619-1823-ekek0j.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532615/original/file-20230619-1823-ekek0j.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532615/original/file-20230619-1823-ekek0j.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532615/original/file-20230619-1823-ekek0j.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532615/original/file-20230619-1823-ekek0j.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532615/original/file-20230619-1823-ekek0j.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Andy Hodson sampling methane from a freshly ‘popped’ pingo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arwyn Edwards</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For more than three decades, <a href="https://www.unis.no/staff/andy-hodson/">Andy Hodson</a> has worked at the frontier where microbes, carbon and the Arctic landscape meet. In 2018, we join him on a brisk spring day in Svalbard. It’s -26°C but the snowmobile commute is thankfully brief – then we work quickly against the cold.</p>
<p>Hodson’s plan is to “pop” one of the many <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pingo">pingos</a> that populate the floor of this wide open valley. Think of pingos as the acne of the Arctic: they form as permafrost compresses unfrozen wet sediments, erupting as small hills blistering the skin of the tundra.</p>
<p>The story of these microbes’ lives is complicated. They only live beyond the reach of oxygen – where oxygen is more prevalent, methane-consuming microbes thrive instead, quenching the belches of methane from below. Similarly, should mineral sources of iron or sulphide be nearby, then microbes that use them outcompete the methanogens.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532614/original/file-20230619-15-6i78fv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A small fountain of water in an opening in the ice, amid a snowy landscape." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532614/original/file-20230619-15-6i78fv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532614/original/file-20230619-15-6i78fv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532614/original/file-20230619-15-6i78fv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532614/original/file-20230619-15-6i78fv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532614/original/file-20230619-15-6i78fv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532614/original/file-20230619-15-6i78fv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532614/original/file-20230619-15-6i78fv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A popped pingo discharging supercooled water rich in methane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arwyn Edwards</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It all adds up to one of the greatest uncertainties for our civilisation: the extent and composition of greenhouse gases escaping from Arctic lands. <a href="https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/emissions-from-melting-permafrost-could-cost-43-trillion#:%7E:text=Increased%20greenhouse%20gas%20emissions%20from,and%20the%20University%20of%20Colorado.">Estimates of the economic impacts</a> from this permafrost carbon feedback tally in the tens of trillions of dollars to the global economy. We know it is bad news, but exactly how bad depends on the microbes in their microscopic mosaic.</p>
<p>Hodson’s field work shows that, during the Arctic winter, this pingo is probably the only source of methane in the immediate area, its chimney enabling the gas to escape from the depths of the ice before methane-consuming microbes can catch it. Annually, tens of kilograms of methane and more than a ton of carbon dioxide will escape from this pingo alone - one of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2023.108694">more than 10,000</a> scattered across the Arctic, in addition to its other methane-producing hotspots.</p>
<h2>A near-perfect ecosystem</h2>
<p>Arctic lands are a patchwork of permafrost carbon feedbacks, and our future depends on the uncertain fate of the microbes within. </p>
<p>While the ice melt enhances the growth of microbes in the short term, if it continues to the point of erasing habitats then the microbes will be lost with them. We recognise this danger for polar bears and walruses, but not the invisible biodiversity of the Arctic. Small does not mean insignificant though.</p>
<p>To appreciate this, we can head back to the dark zone on Greenland’s ice sheet and join <a href="https://www.rolex.org/rolex-awards/exploration/joseph-cook">Joseph Cook</a> during our summer 2014 field season. He’s lying on a mat improvised from a bath towel and a binbag wrapped in duct tape, peering into a dark, pothole-like depression in the ice. It’s a cryoconite hole, and millions of them are dotted over the edges of the ice sheet. Where pingos contribute to climate warming by emitting methane, cryoconite is a good sink of greenhouse gases, but this creates its own problems. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532618/original/file-20230619-27-4a5amn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Crouching scientist takes samples in the Arctic snow." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532618/original/file-20230619-27-4a5amn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532618/original/file-20230619-27-4a5amn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532618/original/file-20230619-27-4a5amn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532618/original/file-20230619-27-4a5amn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532618/original/file-20230619-27-4a5amn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532618/original/file-20230619-27-4a5amn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532618/original/file-20230619-27-4a5amn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Joseph Cook measuring the carbon cycling activities of Greenland’s cryoconite holes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arwyn Edwards</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01758.x">earliest estimate</a> of its ability to store carbon dioxide from the air on the ice surface of the world’s glaciers exceeded Finland’s total carbon emissions in the same year. Every cryoconite hole is a near-perfect ecosystem – with a singular flaw. Its inhabitants must melt ice to live. But the very act of melting the ice hastens the demise of their glacier habitat. </p>
<p>Despite being found in some of the harshest locations on Earth, cryoconite is home for thousands of different types of bacteria (including the all-important photosynthetic cyanobacteria), fungi, and <a href="https://microbiologysociety.org/why-microbiology-matters/what-is-microbiology/protozoa.html">protozoa</a>. Even <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/17/tardigrade-ice-hole-arctic-greenland">tardigrades</a> thrive in cryoconite.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532623/original/file-20230619-21-7v4otj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Microscope image of a single cryoconite granule." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532623/original/file-20230619-21-7v4otj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532623/original/file-20230619-21-7v4otj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532623/original/file-20230619-21-7v4otj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532623/original/file-20230619-21-7v4otj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532623/original/file-20230619-21-7v4otj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532623/original/file-20230619-21-7v4otj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532623/original/file-20230619-21-7v4otj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Microscope image of a cryoconite granule, showing biological darkening and cyanobacteria growing through it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arwyn Edwards</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cook is professionally besotted with the perfection of this near-frozen “microscopic rainforest”. Its inhabitants are shielded and nourished at just the right depth and in the right shape for a busy ecosystem to be engineered by the interaction of sunlight with cyanobacteria, dust and ice to the benefit of all its inhabitants. The cyanobacteria use sunshine to capture carbon dioxide from the air and convert it into the slimy cement that builds each granule of cryoconite</p>
<p>However, with vast numbers of cryoconite holes dotted across the ice surface, “swarms” of these holes help <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2015.00078/full">shape and darken the ice surface</a>. This in turn influences the melting rate, as the surface is sculpted under the sun of 24-hour daylight.</p>
<p>Writing in the scientific journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/029039a0">Nature in 1883</a>, Swedish polar explorer Adolf Erik Nordenskjöld, who discovered cryoconite, thanked the organisms within cryoconite for melting away the ancient ice that once covered Norway and Sweden:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In spite of their insignificance, [they] play a very important part in nature’s economy, from the fact that their dark colour far more readily absorbs the Sun’s heat than the bluish-white ice, and thereby they contribute to the destruction of the ice sheet, and prevent its extension. Undoubtedly we have, in no small degree, to thank these organisms for the melting away of the layer of ice which once covered the Scandinavian peninsula.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Taking DNA analysis to strange new places</h2>
<p>We return to Greenland in winter 2018 to explore cryoconite’s singular flaw. Cook and I are joined by Melanie Hay, then a PhD student in Arctic bioinformatics.</p>
<p>Hay and I are taking DNA analysis to strange new places to learn more about the evolution and biology of cryoconite. Powerful advances in genomics are changing our view of the microbial world, but large DNA-sequencing instruments fare best in sophisticated labs.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532619/original/file-20230619-17-uv14gu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Scientist sitting outside her tent with backpack, looking out at icy landscape." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532619/original/file-20230619-17-uv14gu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532619/original/file-20230619-17-uv14gu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532619/original/file-20230619-17-uv14gu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532619/original/file-20230619-17-uv14gu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532619/original/file-20230619-17-uv14gu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532619/original/file-20230619-17-uv14gu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532619/original/file-20230619-17-uv14gu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Melanie Hay camping and sampling on the Greenland ice sheet.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arwyn Edwards</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Instead, we are using a stapler-sized nanopore sequencer hooked up to the USB port of a winterised laptop. Outside the tent, it is –20°C – but the DNA sequencer must run at body temperature. The only sustainable source of warmth is body heat, so I have snuggled up with the sequencer in my sleeping bag every night and in my clothes all day.</p>
<p>That evening, we are caught in a storm of hurricane force. Becoming disorientated while moving between tents would be lethal, so we crawl in a human chain through the whiteout to our sleeping tents. Hay reaches her tent but Cook’s is lost, so we squeeze into my one-person tent. Somehow I sleep soundly, while Cook is exposed to the full force of the night’s terror.</p>
<p>In the morning, we excavate Hay, whose snow-laden tent had collapsed in the night. The sequencing is complete, but storm damage to our generator means the camp is losing power, so she must work quickly. She identifies the cyanobacteria building the cryoconite – it’s a short list dominated by one species: <em>Phormidesmis priestleyi</em>.</p>
<p>This species, found in cryoconite throughout the Arctic, seems to be the ecosystem engineer of cryoconite – a microscopic beaver building a dam of dust. But the flaw is the darkness of the near-perfect cryoconite ecosystems it creates. Like the neighbouring glacier algae we met earlier, <em>Phormidesmis priestleyi</em> is biologically darkening Arctic ice, and eventually hastening the demise of the thousands of different types of organism contained in cryoconite holes.</p>
<p>And so, this work shows us ever more clearly that the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-020-1163-0">loss of the planet’s glaciers</a> is as much a component of the global biodiversity crisis as it is a headline impact of climate change.</p>
<h2>Last line of defence against antibiotic resistance</h2>
<p>The loss of the Arctic’s microbial biodiversity matters in other ways too. Hay and Aliyah Debbonaire are both reformed biomedical scientists seeking cures from the Arctic in the form of new antibiotics. In the summer of 2018, we are in Svalbard looking for clues.</p>
<p>The world is running out of effective antibiotics, and the Arctic’s frontiers may be our last line of defence in this antibiotic resistance crisis. Countless species of microbes have evolved to live within its harsh habitats using all the tricks in the book, including making antibiotics as chemical weapons to kill off competitors. This means they may be sources of new antibiotics.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532631/original/file-20230619-1900-kr9gwx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Scientists (one kneeling) taking samples in the snowy Arctic landscape." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532631/original/file-20230619-1900-kr9gwx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532631/original/file-20230619-1900-kr9gwx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532631/original/file-20230619-1900-kr9gwx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532631/original/file-20230619-1900-kr9gwx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532631/original/file-20230619-1900-kr9gwx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532631/original/file-20230619-1900-kr9gwx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532631/original/file-20230619-1900-kr9gwx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aliyah Debbonaire (left) and Melanie Hay sampling a cryoconite hole.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arwyn Edwards</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And this is not their only application. From cheeses to eco-friendly biological washing powders, entire shopping aisles of products have been derived from cold-adapted microbes. As climate warming threatens to disrupt entire Arctic habitats, our opportunity to use, learn from, and protect this biodiversity may be lost forever.</p>
<p>As our tiny plane returns to the nearest town, Longyearbyen, we fly low over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-svalbard-why-safety-of-world-seed-vaults-is-crucial-to-future-food-security-79586">Svalbard Global Seed Vault</a>, which contains the fruits of more than 12,000 years of agriculture in the form of seeds from a million different varieties of crop. Nearby, a similar facility inside a disused coal mine stores essential computer programmes on microfilm – the ultimate backup for our data-addicted world.</p>
<p>Within a snowy kilometre, you can walk between the the alpha and omega of human innovation in civilisation. Both facilities have chosen the fastest-warming town on the planet as the safest place to store these treasures of humanity. Yet no such facility is dedicated to the microbial biodiversity of the Arctic, despite its critical importance to the future of the world’s biotech and medical sectors.</p>
<p>Instead, it falls to microbiologists such as Debbonaire, racing against time to identify, nurture and screen the microbes of the melting Arctic. Her painstaking work accumulates towers of Petri dishes, each a temporary refuge for a different Arctic microbe.</p>
<p>Eventually, they will be stored in <a href="https://www.dellamarca.it/en/how-does-an-ultra-low-freezer-work/">ultra-freezers</a> in laboratories scattered across the world. Such work is unglamorous to funders, so it is done piecemeal on the edges of other projects. Yet it represents our only attempt to save the microbes of the Arctic.</p>
<h2>The battle is lost</h2>
<p>Most of all, the Arctic matters because it is the fastest-warming part of the planet, and its microbes are responding first. What happens there carries implications for everyone. It is the harbinger of change for everywhere.</p>
<p>Another Arctic microbiologist could strike plangent notes regarding permafrost or sea ice, but as an ecologist of glaciers I am drawn to glacial ice.</p>
<p>Over the first fifth of this century, Earth’s glaciers have discharged some ten quadrillion (ten to the power 25) tablespoons of melt a year – and within each tablespoon, the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00609-0">tens of thousands of bacteria and viruses</a> that were once stored within that ice.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meltwater-is-infiltrating-greenlands-ice-sheet-through-millions-of-hairline-cracks-destabilizing-its-structure-207468">Meltwater is infiltrating Greenland’s ice sheet through millions of hairline cracks – destabilizing its structure</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>What’s to come is sadly predictable. Even the most modest warming scenario of 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era will lead to the extinction of at least <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo1324">half the Earth’s 200,000 glaciers</a> by the end of the century.</p>
<p>Depending on the urgency and effectiveness of our actions as a civilisation, this century could also represent the “peak melt” in our history. Yet the battle to save many of these precious icy habitats is already lost. Instead, for scientists like me, our field work is now largely a question of documenting these “crime scenes” – so at least the knowledge of life within ice can be preserved, before it melts away forever.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/prehistoric-communities-off-the-coast-of-britain-embraced-rising-seas-what-this-means-for-todays-island-nations-147879?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Prehistoric communities off the coast of Britain embraced rising seas – what this means for today’s island nations
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<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/too-afraid-to-have-kids-how-birthstrike-for-climate-lost-control-of-its-political-message-181198?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">‘Too afraid to have kids’ – how BirthStrike for Climate lost control of its political message
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<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap
</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/noise-in-the-brain-enables-us-to-make-extraordinary-leaps-of-imagination-it-could-transform-the-power-of-computers-too-192367?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Noise in the brain enables us to make extraordinary leaps of imagination. It could transform the power of computers too
</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-gdp-changing-how-we-measure-progress-is-key-to-tackling-a-world-in-crisis-three-leading-experts-186488?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Beyond GDP: changing how we measure progress is key to tackling a world in crisis – three leading experts
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<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207785/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arwyn Edwards receives funding from UK Research & Innovation - Natural Environment Research Council, as well as the Research Council of Norway, the Leverhulme Trust, and the Royal Geographical Society. </span></em></p>To fully understand the extent of climate-related dangers the Arctic – and our planet – is facing, we must focus on organisms too small to be seen with the naked eye.Arwyn Edwards, Reader in Biology, Department of Life Sciences, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1923672022-10-20T08:06:51Z2022-10-20T08:06:51ZNoise in the brain enables us to make extraordinary leaps of imagination. It could transform the power of computers too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490334/original/file-20221018-4769-ep7hqv.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=207%2C0%2C1587%2C992&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/video/clip-1039258709-ai-artificial-intelligence-digital-network-technologies-concepts">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We all have to make hard decisions from time to time. The hardest of my life was whether or not to change research fields after my PhD, from fundamental physics to climate physics. I had job offers that could have taken me in either direction – one to join Stephen Hawking’s <a href="http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/research/gr/about-us">Relativity and Gravitation Group</a> at Cambridge University, another to join the <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/">Met Office</a> as a scientific civil servant.</p>
<p>I wrote down the pros and cons of both options as one is supposed to do, but then couldn’t make up my mind at all. Like <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buridan%27s_ass">Buridan’s donkey</a>, I was unable to move to either the bale of hay or the pail of water. It was a classic case of paralysis by analysis.</p>
<p>Since it was doing my head in, I decided to try to forget about the problem for a couple of weeks and get on with my life. In that intervening time, my unconscious brain decided for me. I simply walked into my office one day and the answer had somehow become obvious: I would make the change to studying the weather and climate.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/uncharted-brain-decoding-dementia-a-three-part-series-to-read-and-listen-to-193162">Uncharted Brain: Decoding Dementia – a three-part series to read and listen to</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>More than four decades on, I’d make the same decision again. My fulfilling career has included developing a <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2022/symposium-prof-tim-palmer-take-place-5-and-6-december">new, probabilistic way of forecasting weather and climate</a> which is helping humanitarian and disaster relief agencies make better decisions ahead of extreme weather events. (This and many other aspects are described in my new book, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-primacy-of-doubt-9780192843593?lang=en&cc=gb">The Primacy of Doubt</a>.)</p>
<p>But I remain fascinated by what was going on in my head back then, which led my subconscious to make a life-changing decision that my conscious could not. Is there something to be understood here not only about how to make difficult decisions, but about how humans make the leaps of imagination that characterise us as such a creative species? I believe the answer to both questions lies in a better understanding of the extraordinary power of noise.</p>
<h2>Imprecise supercomputers</h2>
<p>I went from the pencil-and-paper mathematics of Einstein’s theory of general relativity to running complex climate models on some of the world’s biggest supercomputers. Yet big as they were, they were never big enough – the real climate system is, after all, very complex.</p>
<p>In the early days of my research, one only had to wait a couple of years and top-of-the-range supercomputers would get twice as powerful. This was the era where <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/transistor#:%7E:text=In%20the%20digital%20world%2C%20a,or%20even%20billions%20of%20transistors.">transistors</a> were getting smaller and smaller, allowing more to be crammed on to each microchip. The consequent doubling of computer performance for the same power every couple of years was known as <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mooreslaw.asp">Moore’s Law</a>.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
<p><strong><em>This story is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> and is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects to tackle societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>There is, however, only so much miniaturisation you can do before the transistor starts becoming unreliable in its key role as an on-off switch. Today, with transistors starting to approach <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/smallest-transistor-one-carbon-atom">atomic size</a>, we have pretty much reached the limit of Moore’s Law. To achieve more number-crunching capability, computer manufacturers must bolt together more and more computing cabinets, each one crammed full of chips.</p>
<p>But there’s a problem. Increasing number-crunching capability this way requires a lot more electric power – modern supercomputers the size of tennis courts consume tens of megawatts. I find it something of an embarrassment that we need so much energy to try to accurately predict the effects of climate change.</p>
<p>That’s why I became interested in how to construct a more accurate climate model <em>without</em> consuming more energy. And at the heart of this is an idea that sounds counterintuitive: by adding random numbers, or “noise”, to a climate model, we can actually make it more accurate in predicting the weather.</p>
<h2>A constructive role for noise</h2>
<p>Noise is usually seen as a nuisance – something to be minimised wherever possible. In telecommunications, we speak about trying to maximise the “signal-to-noise ratio” by boosting the signal or reducing the background noise as much as possible. However, in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonlinear_system">nonlinear systems</a>, noise can be your friend and actually contribute to boosting a signal. (A <a href="http://kolibri.teacherinabox.org.au/modules/en-boundless/www.boundless.com/algebra/textbooks/boundless-algebra-textbook/conic-sections-341/nonlinear-systems-of-equations-and-inequalities-52/models-involving-nonlinear-systems-of-equations-222-6108/index.html#:%7E:text=Some%20other%20real%2Dworld%20examples,is%20somewhere%20on%20a%20circle.">nonlinear system</a> is one whose output does not vary in direct proportion to the input. You will likely be very happy to win £100 million on the lottery, but probably not twice as happy to win £200 million.) </p>
<p>Noise can, for example, help us find the maximum value of a complicated curve such as in Figure 1, below. There are many situations in the physical, biological and social sciences as well as in engineering where we might need to find such a maximum. In my field of meteorology, the process of finding the best initial conditions for a global weather forecast involves identifying the maximum point of a very <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction">complicated meteorological function</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Figure 1</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490372/original/file-20221018-8262-yoxe8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A curve with multiple local peaks and troughs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490372/original/file-20221018-8262-yoxe8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490372/original/file-20221018-8262-yoxe8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490372/original/file-20221018-8262-yoxe8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490372/original/file-20221018-8262-yoxe8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490372/original/file-20221018-8262-yoxe8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490372/original/file-20221018-8262-yoxe8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490372/original/file-20221018-8262-yoxe8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A curve with multiple local peaks and troughs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, employing a “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterministic_algorithm">deterministic algorithm</a>” to locate the global maximum doesn’t usually work. This type of algorithm will typically get stuck at a local peak (for example at point <strong>a</strong>) because the curve moves downwards in both directions from there.</p>
<p>An answer is to use a technique called “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulated_annealing">simulated annealing</a>” – so called because of its similarities with (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annealing_(materials_science)">annealing</a>), the heat treatment process that changes the properties of metals. Simulated annealing, which employs noise to get round the issue of getting stuck at local peaks, has been used to solve many problems including the classic <a href="https://optimization.mccormick.northwestern.edu/index.php/Traveling_salesman_problems">travelling salesman puzzle</a> of finding the shortest path between a <a href="https://optimization.mccormick.northwestern.edu/index.php/File:48StatesTSP.png">large number of cities on a map</a>.</p>
<p>Figure 1 shows a possible route to locating the curve’s global maximum (point <strong>9</strong>) by using the following criteria:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>If a randomly chosen point is higher than the current position on the curve, then the new point is always moved to.</p></li>
<li><p>If it is lower than the current position, the suggested point isn’t necessarily rejected. It depends whether the new point is a lot lower or just a little lower.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>However, the decision to move to a new point also depends on how long the analysis has been running. Whereas in the early stages, random points quite a bit lower than the current position may be accepted, in later stages only those that are higher or just a tiny bit lower are accepted.</p>
<p>The technique is known as simulated annealing because early on – like hot metal in the early phase of cooling – the system is pliable and changeable. Later in the process – like cold metal in the late phase of cooling – it is almost rigid and unchangeable.</p>
<h2>How noise can help climate models</h2>
<p>Noise was introduced into <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate/science/climate-modelling">comprehensive weather and climate models</a> around 20 years ago. A key reason was to represent model uncertainty in our ensemble weather forecasts – but it turned out that adding noise also reduced some of the biases the models had, making them more accurate simulators of weather and climate.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, these models require huge supercomputers and a lot of energy to run them. They divide the world into small gridboxes, with the atmosphere and ocean within each assumed to be constant – which, of course, it isn’t. The horizontal scale of a typical gridbox is around 100km – so one way of making a model more accurate is to reduce this distance to 50km, or 10km or 1km. However, halving the volume of a gridbox increases the computational cost of running the model by up to a factor of 16, meaning it consumes a lot more energy.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-fkCo_trbT8?wmode=transparent&start=1" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Here again, noise offered an appealing alternative. The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42254-019-0062-2">proposal</a> was to use it to represent the unpredictable (and unmodellable) variations in small-scale climatic processes like turbulence, cloud systems, ocean eddies and so on. I argued that adding noise could be a way of boosting accuracy without having to incur the enormous computational cost of reducing the size of the gridboxes. For example, <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/11/JCLI-D-20-0507.1.xml">as has now been verified</a>, adding noise to a climate model increases the likelihood of producing extreme hurricanes – reflecting the potential reality of a world whose weather is growing more extreme due to climate change.</p>
<p>The computer hardware we use for this modelling is inherently noisy – electrons travelling along wires in a computer move in partly random ways due to its warm environment. Such randomness is called “thermal noise”. Could we save even more energy by tapping into it, rather than having to use software to generate pseudo-random numbers? To me, low-energy <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/526032a">“imprecise” supercomputers</a> that are inherently noisy looked like a win-win proposal. </p>
<p>But not all of my colleagues were convinced. They were uncomfortable that computers might not give the same answers from one day to the next. To try to persuade them, I began to think about other real-world systems that, because of limited energy availability, also use noise that is generated within their hardware. And I stumbled on the human brain.</p>
<h2>Noise in the brain</h2>
<p>Every second of the waking day, our eyes alone send gigabytes of data to the brain. That’s not much different to the amount of data a climate model produces each time it outputs data to memory.</p>
<p>The brain has to process this data and somehow make sense of it. If it did this using the power of a supercomputer, that would be impressive enough. But it does it using one millionth of that power, about 20W instead of 20MW – what it takes to power a lightbulb. Such energy efficiency is mind-bogglingly impressive. How on Earth does the brain do it?</p>
<p>An adult brain contains some 80 billion neurons. Each neuron has a long slender biological cable – the axon – along which electrical impulses are transmitted from one set of neurons to the next. But these impulses, which collectively describe information in the brain, have to be boosted by protein “transistors” positioned at regular intervals along the axons. Without them, the signal would dissipate and be lost.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489566/original/file-20221013-18-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Neurons and axons in the brain." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489566/original/file-20221013-18-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489566/original/file-20221013-18-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489566/original/file-20221013-18-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489566/original/file-20221013-18-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489566/original/file-20221013-18-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489566/original/file-20221013-18-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489566/original/file-20221013-18-isqtqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brain neurons and axons under a microscope.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/neurons-brain-on-white-background-307043336">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The energy for these boosts ultimately comes from an organic compound in the blood called ATP (adenosine triphosphate). This enables electrically charged atoms of sodium and potassium (ions) to be pushed through small channels in the neuron walls, creating electrical voltages which, much like those in silicon transistors, amplify the neuronal electric signals as they travel along the axons.</p>
<p>With 20W of power spread across tens of billions of neurons, the voltages involved are tiny, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25142940/">as are the axon cables</a>. And there is evidence that axons with a diameter less than about 1 micron (which most in the brain are) are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2631351/">susceptible to noise</a>. In other words, the brain is a noisy system.</p>
<p>If this noise simply created unhelpful “brain fog”, one might wonder why we evolved to have so many slender axons in our heads. Indeed, there are benefits to having fatter axons: the signals propagate along them faster. If we still needed fast reaction times to escape predators, then slender axons would be <a href="https://www.mpg.de/15409874/axons-cmtm6">disadvantageous</a>. However, developing communal ways of defending ourselves against enemies may have reduced the need for fast reaction times, leading to an evolutionary trend towards thinner axons.</p>
<p>Perhaps, serendipitously, evolutionary mutations that further increased neuron numbers and reduced axon sizes, keeping overall energy consumption the same, made the brain’s neurons more susceptible to noise. And there is mounting evidence that this had another remarkable effect: it encouraged in humans the ability to solve problems that required leaps in imagination and creativity.</p>
<p>Perhaps we only truly became Homo Sapiens when significant noise began to appear in our brains?</p>
<h2>Putting noise in the brain to good use</h2>
<p>Many animals have developed creative approaches to solving problems, but there is nothing to compare with a Shakespeare, a Bach or an Einstein in the animal world.</p>
<p>How do creative geniuses come up with their ideas? Here’s a quote from <a href="https://simonsingh.net/books/fermats-last-theorem/the-whole-story/">Andrew Wiles</a>, perhaps the most famous mathematician alive today, about the time leading up to his celebrated proof of the maths problem (misleadingly) known as Fermat’s Last Theorem:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>When you reach a real impasse, then routine mathematical thinking is of no use to you. Leading up to that kind of new idea, there has to be a long period of tremendous focus on the problem without any distraction. You have to really think about nothing but that problem – just concentrate on it. And then you stop. [At this point] there seems to be a period of relaxation during which the subconscious appears to take over – and it’s during this time that some new insight comes.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6ymTZEeTjI8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">BBC’s Horizon unpicks Andrew Wiles’s novel approach to solving Fermat’s Theorem.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This notion seems universal. Physics Nobel Laureate <a href="https://sciworthy.com/the-connection-between-black-holes-and-einsteins-theory-of-relativity/#:%7E:text=Penrose%20had%20a%20moment%20of,be%20possible%20in%20all%20systems.">Roger Penrose</a> has spoken about his “Eureka moment” when crossing a busy street with a colleague (perhaps reflecting on their conversation while also looking out for oncoming traffic). For the father of chaos theory <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/imagination-and-the-imagi_b_8178538">Henri Poincaré</a>, it was catching a bus.</p>
<p>And it’s not just creativity in mathematics and physics. Comedian John Cleese, of Monty Python fame, makes much the same point about artistic creativity – it occurs not when you are focusing hard on your trade, but when you relax and let your unconscious mind wander.</p>
<p>Of course, not all the ideas that bubble up from your subconscious are going to be Eureka moments. Physicist Michael Berry <a href="https://michaelberryphysics.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/u8.pdf">talks about</a> these subconscious ideas as if they are elementary particles called “claritons”:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Actually, I do have a contribution to particle physics … the elementary particle of sudden understanding: the “clariton”. Any scientist will recognise the “aha!” moment when this particle is created. But there is a problem: all too frequently, today’s clariton is annihilated by tomorrow’s “anticlariton”. So many of our scribblings disappear beneath a rubble of anticlaritons.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Here is something we can all relate to: that in the cold light of day, most of our “brilliant” subconscious ideas get annihilated by logical thinking. Only a very, very, very small number of claritons remain after this process. But the ones that do are likely to be gems.</p>
<p>In his renowned book <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow">Thinking Fast and Slow</a>, the Nobel prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman describes the brain in a binary way. Most of the time when walking, chatting and looking around (in other words when multitasking), it operates in a mode Kahneman calls “system 1” – a rather fast, automatic, effortless mode of operation.</p>
<p>By contrast, when we are thinking hard about a specific problem (unitasking), the brain is in the slower, more deliberative and logical “system 2”. To perform a calculation like 37x13, we have to stop walking, stop talking, close our eyes and even put our hands over our ears. No chance for significant multitasking in system 2.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fncom.2015.00124/full">2015 paper</a> with computational neuroscientist Michael O’Shea interpreted system 1 as a mode where available energy is spread across a large number of active neurons, and system 2 as where energy is focused on a smaller number of active neurons. The amount of energy per active neuron is therefore much smaller when in the system 1 mode, and it would seem plausible that the brain is more susceptible to noise when in this state. That is, in situations when we are multitasking, the operation of any one of the neurons will be most susceptible to the effects of noise in the brain.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/daniel-kahneman-on-noise-the-flaw-in-human-judgement-harder-to-detect-than-cognitive-bias-160525">Daniel Kahneman on 'noise' – the flaw in human judgement harder to detect than cognitive bias</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Berry’s picture of clariton-anticlariton interaction seems to suggest a model of the brain where the noisy system 1 and the deterministic system 2 act in synergy. The anticlariton is the logical analysis that we perform in system 2 which, most of the time, leads us to reject our crazy system 1 ideas.</p>
<p>But sometimes one of these ideas turns out to be not so crazy.</p>
<p>This is reminiscent of how our simulated annealing analysis (Figure 1) works. Initially, we might find many “crazy” ideas appealing. But as we get closer to locating the optimal solution, the criteria for accepting a new suggestion becomes more stringent and discerning. Now, system 2 anticlaritons are annihilating almost everything the system 1 claritons can throw at them – but not quite everything, as Wiles found to his great relief.</p>
<h2>The key to creativity</h2>
<p>If the key to creativity is the synergy between noisy and deterministic thinking, what are some consequences of this?</p>
<p>On the one hand, if you do not have the necessary background information then your analytic powers will be depleted. That’s why Wiles says that leading up to the moment of insight, you have to immerse yourself in your subject. You aren’t going to have brilliant ideas which will revolutionise quantum physics unless you have a pretty good grasp of quantum physics in the first place.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0kSYdOwVi4Y?wmode=transparent&start=1455" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>But you also need to leave yourself enough time each day to do nothing much at all, to relax and let your mind wander. I tell my research students that if they want to be successful in their careers, they shouldn’t spend every waking hour in front of their laptop or desktop. And swapping it for social media probably doesn’t help either, since you still aren’t really multitasking – each moment you are on social media, your attention is still fixed on a specific issue.</p>
<p>But going for a walk or bike ride or painting a shed probably does help. Personally, I find that driving a car is a useful activity for coming up with new ideas and thoughts – provided you don’t turn the radio on.</p>
<p>When making difficult decisions, this suggests that, having listed all the pros and cons, it can be helpful <em>not</em> to actively think about the problem for a while. I think this explains how, years ago, I finally made the decision to change my research direction – not that I knew it at the time.</p>
<p>Because the brain’s system 1 is so energy efficient, we use it to make the vast majority of the many decisions in our daily lives (some say as many as 35,000) – most of which aren’t that important, like whether to continue putting one leg in front of the other as we walk down to the shops. (I could alternatively stop after each step, survey my surroundings to make sure a predator was not going to jump out and attack me, and on that basis decide whether to take the next step.)</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young man painting a shed" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489578/original/file-20221013-19-uwzexe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489578/original/file-20221013-19-uwzexe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489578/original/file-20221013-19-uwzexe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489578/original/file-20221013-19-uwzexe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489578/original/file-20221013-19-uwzexe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489578/original/file-20221013-19-uwzexe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489578/original/file-20221013-19-uwzexe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A key part of creative thinking?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/teenager-has-summer-job-painter-he-2027087039">Blodstrupmoen/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, this system 1 thinking can sometimes lead us to make bad decisions, because we have simply defaulted to this low-energy mode and not engaged system 2 when we should have. How many times do we say to ourselves in hindsight: “Why didn’t I give such and such a decision more thought?”</p>
<p>Of course, if instead we engaged system 2 for every decision we had to make, then we wouldn’t have enough time or energy to do all the other important things we have to do in our daily lives (so the shops may have shut by the time we reach them).</p>
<p>From this point of view, we should not view giving wrong answers to unimportant questions as evidence of irrationality. Kahneman <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Representativeness-revisited%3A-Attribute-in-Kahneman-Frederick/4069615a36c33e61ca309b8ceaeb628a10d441b5?p2df">cites</a> the fact that more than 50% of students at MIT, Harvard and Princeton gave the incorrect answer to this simple question – a bat and ball costs $1.10; the bat costs one dollar more than the ball; how much does the ball cost? – as evidence of our irrationality. The correct answer, if you think about it, <a href="https://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2020/05/31/baseball-bat-and-ball-cost-1-10-riddle-answer-explained/">is 5 cents</a>. But system 1 screams out ten cents.</p>
<p>If we were asked this question on pain of death, one would hope we would spend enough thought to come up with the correct answer. But if we were asked the question as part of an anonymous after-class test, when we had much more important things to spend time and energy doing, then I’d be inclined to think of it as irrational to give the right answer.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-does-our-brain-know-to-make-immediate-decisions-155532">Curious Kids: how does our brain know to make immediate decisions?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If we had 20MW to run the brain, we could spend part of it solving unimportant problems. But we only have 20W and we need to use it carefully. Perhaps it’s the 50% of MIT, Harvard and Princeton students who gave the wrong answer who are really the clever ones.</p>
<p>Just as a climate model with noise can produce types of weather that a model without noise can’t, so a brain with noise can produce ideas that a brain without noise can’t. And just as these types of weather can be exceptional hurricanes, so the idea could end up winning you a Nobel Prize.</p>
<p>So, if you want to increase your chances of achieving something extraordinary, I’d recommend going for that walk in the countryside, looking up at the clouds, listening to the birds cheeping, and thinking about what you might eat for dinner.</p>
<h2>So could computers be creative?</h2>
<p>Will computers, one day, be as creative as Shakespeare, Bach or Einstein? Will they understand the world around us as we do? Stephen Hawking <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30290540">famously warned</a> that AI will eventually take over and replace mankind.</p>
<p>However, the best-known advocate of the idea that computers will never understand as we do is Hawking’s old colleague, Roger Penrose. In making his claim, Penrose invokes an important “meta” theorem in mathematics known as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jan/10/can-you-solve-it-godels-incompleteness-theorem#:%7E:text=In%201931%2C%20the%20Austrian%20logician,statements%20that%20cannot%20be%20proved.">Gödel’s theorem</a>, which says there are mathematical truths that can’t be proven by deterministic algorithms.</p>
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<p>There is a simple way of illustrating Gödel’s theorem. Suppose we make a list of all the most important mathematical theorems that have been proven since the time of the ancient Greeks. First on the list would be <a href="https://www-users.cs.york.ac.uk/susan/cyc/p/primeprf.htm#:%7E:text=Assume%20there%20are%20a%20finite,any%20of%20the%20p%20i%20.">Euclid’s proof</a> that there are an infinite number of prime numbers, which requires one really creative step (multiply the supposedly finite number of primes together and add one). Mathematicians would call this a “trick” – shorthand for a clever and succinct mathematical construction.</p>
<p>But is this trick useful for proving important theorems further down the list, like <a href="https://medium.com/not-zero/two-proofs-of-the-irrationality-of-the-square-root-of-2-fca5c38e44c">Pythagoras’s proof</a> that the square root of two cannot be expressed as the ratio of two whole numbers? It’s clearly not; we need another trick for that theorem. Indeed, as you go down the list, you’ll find that a new trick is typically needed to prove each new theorem. It seems there is no end to the number of tricks that mathematicians will need to prove their theorems. Simply loading a given set of tricks on a computer won’t necessarily make the computer creative. </p>
<p>Does this mean mathematicians can breathe easily, knowing their jobs are not going to be taken over by computers? Well maybe not.</p>
<p>I have been arguing that we need computers to be noisy rather than entirely deterministic, “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reproducible_builds">bit-reproducible</a>” machines. And noise, especially if it comes from quantum mechanical processes, would break the assumptions of Gödel’s theorem: a noisy computer is <em>not</em> an algorithmic machine in the usual sense of the word.</p>
<p>Does this imply that a noisy computer can be creative? Alan Turing, pioneer of the general-purpose computing machine, believed this was possible, <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/turing/#:%7E:text=In%20other%20words%20then%2C%20if,makes%20no%20pretence%20at%20infallibility.">suggesting</a> that “if a machine is expected to be infallible then it cannot also be intelligent”. That is to say, if we want the machine to be intelligent then it had better be capable of making mistakes.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/turing-test-why-it-still-matters-123468">Turing Test: why it still matters</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Others may argue there is no evidence that simply adding noise will make an otherwise stupid machine into an intelligent one – and I agree, as it stands. Adding noise to a climate model doesn’t automatically make it an intelligent climate model.</p>
<p>However, the type of synergistic interplay between noise and determinism – the kind that sorts the wheat from the chaff of random ideas – has hardly yet been developed in computer codes. Perhaps we could develop a new type of AI model where the AI is trained by getting it to solve simple mathematical theorems using the clariton-anticlariton model; by making guesses and seeing if any of these have value.</p>
<p>For this to be at all tractable, the AI system would need to be trained to focus on “educated random guesses”. (If the machine’s guesses are all uneducated ones, it will take forever to make progress – like waiting for a group of monkeys to type the first few lines of Hamlet.)</p>
<p>For example, in the context of Euclid’s proof that there are an unlimited number of primes, could we train an AI system in such a way that a random idea like “multiply the assumed finite number of primes together and add one” becomes much more likely than the completely useless random idea “add the assumed finite number of primes together and subtract six”? And if a particular guess turns out to be especially helpful, can we train the AI system so that the next guess is a refinement of the last one? </p>
<p>If we can somehow find a way to do this, it could open up modelling to a completely new level that is relevant to all fields of study. And in so doing, we might yet reach the so-called “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity">singularity</a>” when machines take over from humans. But only when AI developers fully embrace the constructive role of noise – as it seems the brain did many thousands of years ago.</p>
<p>For now, I feel the need for another walk in the countryside. To blow away some fusty old cobwebs – and perhaps sow the seeds for some exciting new ones.</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-magic-of-touch-how-deafblind-people-taught-us-to-see-the-world-differently-during-covid-191698?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">The magic of touch: how deafblind people taught us to ‘see’ the world differently during COVID
</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-body-has-37-trillion-cells-if-we-can-work-out-what-they-all-do-the-results-could-revolutionise-healthcare-185654?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">The human body has 37 trillion cells. If we can work out what they all do, the results could revolutionise healthcare
</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-inside-story-of-recovery-how-the-worlds-largest-covid-19-trial-transformed-treatment-and-what-it-could-do-for-other-diseases-184772?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">The inside story of Recovery: how the world’s largest COVID-19 trial transformed treatment – and what it could do for other diseases
</a></em></p></li>
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<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192367/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Palmer receives funding from The Royal Society and from the European Research Council. His book, The Primacy of Doubt is published by Oxford University Press.
</span></em></p>From more accurate climate modelling to the prospect of truly creative computers, the brain’s use of noise has a lot to teach us.Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1800712022-05-25T14:16:38Z2022-05-25T14:16:38ZHow the scientific equivalent of impressionist paintings can make you feel data<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465255/original/file-20220525-16-xfeb4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1500&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Water Lilies by Claude Monet (1919).</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/water-lilies-by-claude-monet-1919-747216235">Everett Collection/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A group of artists shook the world in the 1860s by painting what they saw, thought and felt. They became known as the impressionists and they weren’t interested in recreating perfect visual appearances like hundreds of artists before them.</p>
<p>Instead, painters like Claude Monet strove for a new way of representing the world in order to keep it alive and real. They did this by creating an “impression” of how a person, landscape or object appeared to them at a certain moment in time. In doing so, they captured all aspects of their changing societies and transformed the very nature of the way people think of and engage with art. </p>
<p>Our world today is shaped by similarly intangible things, such as data. Like the impressionists, scientists must visualise these things in a way that can help people see the world (and how it is changing) anew. </p>
<p>In 2020, the average person created at least 1.7 megabytes of data <a href="https://techjury.net/blog/how-much-data-is-created-every-day/#gref">per second</a> while traversing online banking systems, emails, medical records and social networks. To try and represent data, scientists typically use graphs or charts. With much of society now suffering from what has been described as <a href="https://www.netmotionsoftware.com/blog/industry-disruption/data-fatigue">data fatigue</a>, traditional methods of depicting all the facts and figures swirling around are unlikely to cut it. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-9887241/Ten-years-smart-meter-look-successful-rollout-been.html">smart meters</a> that were introduced to households in the UK were supposed to motivate people to save energy through a better understanding of where it was being wasted. But research suggests many people find the data visualisations confusing and difficult to relate to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09613218.2017.1356164">everyday household activities</a>.</p>
<p>Just when people need to engage in the effort to avert the worst consequences of climate change, data fatigue is turning their attention elsewhere. Like the 19th-century impressionism movement did for art, 21st-century science needs a new way to depict data.</p>
<h2>An impression of island life</h2>
<p>Data impressionism is supposed to imbue data with a vividness that enhances understanding and possibly even influences the behaviour of those viewing it. </p>
<p>The idea is to make the data more perceptible and so, easier to interpret. A data impression should only depict <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339640603_Towards_a_Powerful_Solution_for_Data_Accuracy_Assessment_in_the_Big_Data_Context">accurate data</a>, but unlike traditional charts and figures, it’s designed to make people reflect on how the information makes them feel. </p>
<p>One data impression my colleagues and I have developed echoes the work of impressionist painters who used shifting light and colour to depict an impression of a scene, like Claude Monet’s in his 1872 painting <a href="https://www.claude-monet.com/impression-sunrise.jsp">Impression, Sunrise</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454952/original/file-20220329-18-1riqexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An impressionist painting depicting a shadowed figure in a boat with a misty harbour scene in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454952/original/file-20220329-18-1riqexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454952/original/file-20220329-18-1riqexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454952/original/file-20220329-18-1riqexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454952/original/file-20220329-18-1riqexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454952/original/file-20220329-18-1riqexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454952/original/file-20220329-18-1riqexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454952/original/file-20220329-18-1riqexg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Monet’s Impression, Sunrise evokes dawn without creating a photo-realistic depiction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impression,_Sunrise#/media/File:Monet_-_Impression,_Sunrise.jpg">Claude Monet</a></span>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.visitcardiff.com/highlights/flat-holm-island/">island of Flat Holm</a> is a nature reserve that sits a few miles off the coast of Cardiff, Wales in the Bristol Channel. Flat Holm contains rare plants, such as rock sea-lavender and wild leek, and a colony of lesser black-backed gulls. Its protection depends on it remaining a place of interest in the public consciousness. Lots of data has been collected on the biodiversity of Flat Holm over the years, and a local weather station keeps tabs on the sunshine, wind and rainfall. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jri9CteYWfM">A temporary exhibition</a> running at the <a href="https://www.techniquest.org/">Techniquest science museum</a> in Cardiff depicts some of these data streams using coloured LED lighting, moving parts and reflective surfaces. An online app was developed to support the exhibit and is now used by the island warden to count and report the number of seagulls, butterflies, shelducks and other species. An impression of this data is then revealed to the audience at the museum through an interactive map. </p>
<p>A touch of the seagull button on the display releases a pattern of colour and movement. If lots of seagulls have been counted on the island, the shifting coloured LED lights are vibrant and fast. If few seagulls were reported, the flickering LED lights are slow and calm.</p>
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<p>The exhibit also captures a real-time impression of what the weather on the island is like. Data pulled from the weather station turns prism-shaped panels on a mechanical display to give an impression of how sunny, cloudy or rainy the weather is. </p>
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<p>The exhibit allows visitors to immerse themselves in a visual display of life on the island. Like impressionist paintings before, it uses aesthetic elements and principles to make the data feel more real. If scientists are to successfully engage people with complex data, they need to generate experiences that allow them to connect and relate to it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180071/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fiona Carroll has received funding from SMART EXPERTISE funding from Welsh government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aidan Taylor has received funding from the Welsh government SMART Expertise programme.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Pigott works for Cardiff Metropolitan University. He receives funding from SMART expertise / Welsh gov.</span></em></p>Why modern science needs more Claude Monets.Fiona Carroll, Reader in Human Computer Interaction, Cardiff Metropolitan UniversityAidan Taylor, Lecturer in Computer Embedded Design, Cardiff Metropolitan UniversityJon Pigott, Senior Lecturer in Art and Design, Cardiff Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1625332021-06-10T12:26:13Z2021-06-10T12:26:13ZGrattan on Friday: Scott Morrison’s quest to be a Biden ‘bestie’<p>Scott Morrison, who was embraced as a bro’ by Donald Trump, now seeks to become one of Joe Biden’s besties.</p>
<p>Making this transition neatly is probably the most important aspect of Morrison’s trip to the G7 summit, at which Australia is one of several guest countries.</p>
<p>A feature of the weekend in Cornwall will be the prime minister’s bilateral with the president, with a show of bonhomie for the cameras and some shrewd mutual assessment in private.</p>
<p>The Australia-US relationship is driven by deep common interests rather than the extent of rapport (or lack of it) between leaders in office at any particular time. But establishing strong personal bonds can help grease the wheels.</p>
<p>Morrison’s pragmatism and his chameleon quality will help in developing intimacy. At and around the G7 he will play up the obvious points of commonality, with Biden and the other leaders. But he still carries some policy baggage, notably on the climate issue, and it’s unclear whether that will cause him trouble.</p>
<p>Morrison laid the groundwork for his trip in his Wednesday speech in Perth, which was titled “A world order that favours freedom”, and cast as a rallying call to allies. This neatly aligned with Biden’s recent Washington Post article, under the heading “My trip to Europe is about America rallying the world’s democracies”.</p>
<p>James Curran, professor of modern history at Sydney University, saw “more than a touch of hubris” in the Morrison speech.</p>
<p>“He appears to be claiming that Australia, by virtue of being at the frontline of the supposed ‘new Cold War’ against China, is a standard bearer for ‘a world order that favours freedom’.</p>
<p>"But I think it is a case more of the PM’s cleverly tapping into President Biden’s longstanding ‘alliance of democracies’ rhetoric. Far from being out front, Mr Morrison is playing the role of presidential mimic,” Curran says.</p>
<p>One way or another, Morrison is firmly on the same page as the new president.</p>
<p>It’s a easier page to be on than Trump’s. In the Trump era, closeness might be deemed necessary for Australia’s interests but was decidedly awkward. For instance, when asked on radio before his September 2019 US visit (with its state dinner) whether Trump was a good president, one could almost hear Morrison sliding across the room. “Yeah I, look we’ve got a straight up relationship and he respects Australia.” </p>
<p>In Wednesday’s speech Morrison talked up Australia’s book, declaring in the written version: “Australia is more connected and more respected today than arguably at any time in our history”. He added: “We have worked hard to ensure we are not a nation that can be easily marginalised and driven to unacceptable compromises”.</p>
<p>In broad strategic and economic terms, Morrison goes to the G7 focused on and preoccupied with the threat of an ever-more assertive China. Australia has increasingly felt the harsh edge of China’s diplomatic tongue, and some Australian exports suffer as China weaponises trade to express its displeasure over various issues.</p>
<p>Morrison is looking for maximum attention on the China challenge from allies and friends, especially the US, at the G7 and on every other possible occasion.</p>
<p>Given how deleterious for Australia China’s behaviour now is, the government’s reaction is not surprising. But there is also the risk of it becoming seriously counterproductive.</p>
<p>In Western Australia, there’s concern China could threaten that state’s iron ore exports. Critics don’t buy the federal government’s argument this would be against China’s own interests and so is unlikely.</p>
<p>WA premier Mark McGowan was decidedly unimpressed with the tone of Morrison’s speech. McGowan warned that “we need to be very careful in relation to our language and the way we approach these things because we could be the big losers out of it”.</p>
<p>One specific issue Morrison hopes the G7 will push is reform of the World Trade Organisation’s disputes settlement system, which has broken down in the wake of Trump vetoing the appointment of new judges. A well-functioning process is vital, especially for a country like Australia, to enforce trade rules and deal with grievances.</p>
<p>The Australian National University’s Shiro Armstrong, an expert on the WTO, says Morrison’s urging lends weight to a wider international recognition that global trade rules are outdated and the current system is under threat.</p>
<p>While the G7 is expected to call for action, Armstrong says change will require broader support. He points to the G20 (of which Australia is a member) being the body able to “set the strategic direction for reform of the WTO given its membership of the large emerging economies and established powers”.</p>
<p>Among the central issues on the G7 agenda will be climate change and the pandemic.</p>
<p>Morrison has made it clear he is not ready yet to embrace a firm 2050 target for net zero emissions – though he wants to before the Glasgow climate conference in November – let alone lift Australia’s ambition in the near term.</p>
<p>For all his talk of technology, and his defensive stand on Australia’s record, he won’t be in tune with the G7 leaders. It will be embarrassing. The question is, how embarrassing? </p>
<p>Will he be put on the spot in plain sight, or will Australia’s laggard position be politely ignored in public? And behind closed doors, will Biden twist his arm to move faster, or will the president leave that until later, or to his climate envoy John Kerry? Britain’s Boris Johnson has already been firm with him.</p>
<p>On the pandemic, Morrison will be able to boast about Australia’s health and economic performance. Perhaps he won’t dwell on the slowness and problems of the rollout.</p>
<p>But the G7 leaders will be focused on the need to get more vaccines to developing countries. Biden is proposing a big US initiative. Morrison will point to the vaccine aid Australia is funding for the region. We could always do more however – the government has on order and will receive more doses than necessary to fully cover all eligible Australians.</p>
<p>In his speech, Morrison made a point of welcoming Biden’s probe into the origins of coronavirus – whether it came from an animal, as initially was the accepted explanation, or the possibility it accidentally escaped from a Wuhan laboratory.</p>
<p>Australia’s early call for an inquiry marked a moment of further deterioration in the relationship with China. The investigation that eventually resulted was inconclusive.</p>
<p>According to a leaked version of the G7 draft communique, seen by Bloomberg News, the leaders are set to call for the World Health Organisation to set up a new inquiry into COVID-19’s origins.</p>
<p>For Morrison the search for the pandemic’s start is unfinished business, a point of strong accord with the president.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison, who was embraced as a bro by Donald Trump, now seeks to become one of Joe Biden’s besties, writes Michelle GrattanMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1607062021-05-13T23:51:19Z2021-05-13T23:51:19ZGetting ready for climate change is about people, not spreadsheets. Let’s use our imaginations<p>Measures in this week’s federal budget to help Australians withstand and adapt to climate change are sorely needed, after <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2017-budget-has-axed-research-to-help-australia-adapt-to-climate-change-77477">years of cuts</a> in this policy area.</p>
<p>The Morrison government has funded a raft of initiatives, including A$600 million to establish a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/05/coalition-allocates-600m-for-new-resilience-agency-to-help-combat-threat-of-natural-disasters">National Recovery and Resilience Agency</a> and A$210 million for the <a href="https://minister.awe.gov.au/ley/media-releases/new-national-climate-service-australia">Australian Climate Service</a>. </p>
<p>But disaster recovery can’t be the sole focus of climate adaptation. Are we harnessing networks that enable a society to function effectively, and tapping into diverse forms of knowledge? Are we valuing all types of “capital”? In short, are we being imaginative enough?</p>
<p>Australia can take great strides forward in climate policy and action. A reactionary, incremental approach to adaptation will fall short. Now is the time to think big.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400483/original/file-20210513-18-1cw7ybc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Disaster resilience measures were contained in the federal budget delivered this week by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg (right), pictured here with Prime Minister Scott Morrison.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate adaptation matters</h2>
<p>Importantly, the government is seeking to embed climate adaptation across various portfolios. </p>
<p>The National Recovery and Resilience Agency <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/05/coalition-allocates-600m-for-new-resilience-agency-to-help-combat-threat-of-natural-disasters">NRRA</a> will combine fire and flood agencies to centralise disaster recovery and response. This multi-agency structure should reduce “siloing” across government departments. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://minister.awe.gov.au/ley/media-releases/new-national-climate-service-australia">Australian Climate Service</a> will collate climate data and advise the NRRA, helping streamline disaster recovery decisions. It will also support the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/adaptation/strategy">review</a> of Australia’s current resilience and adaptation strategy. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-has-pledged-over-800m-to-fight-natural-disasters-it-could-be-revolutionary-if-done-right-160348">The government has pledged over $800m to fight natural disasters. It could be revolutionary — if done right</a>
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<p>These initiatives are welcome. But climate resilience means far more than responding once disaster hits. Human decision-making is complex, especially during a crisis. A solely post-disaster response inevitably means some people are left behind. In contrast, adaptation that plans for and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26268129?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">anticipates</a> future events can help ensure people – especially the vulnerable – are not left worse off by the climate crisis.</p>
<p>And while we will always need climate data and risk modelling, we cannot assume everyone will use the data to make good decisions. </p>
<p>Increasing Australians’ resilience to climate change means putting people’s lived experience and knowledge first. Planning should be <a href="https://www.iied.org/introduction-community-based-adaptation-climate-change">community-based</a>, and these perspectives should translate <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Community-Based-Adaptation-to-Climate-Change-Scaling-it-up/Schipper-Ayers-Reid-Huq-Rahman/p/book/9780415623704">into policy</a>. </p>
<p>The Reimagining Climate Adaptation Summit, <a href="https://www.futureearth.org.au/initiatives/securing-australias-future/reimagining-climate-adaptation-videos">held last month</a>, explored this path. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="back view of woman holding sign reading 'we need a change'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400460/original/file-20210513-21-1u4y2es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Communities want change – and that means involving them in adaptation planning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Get comfortable with complexity</h2>
<p>The summit in April brought together people from research, business, climate, community and government. Four themes emerged:</p>
<p><strong>1. Learn from diverse knowledges and perspectives</strong></p>
<p>The knowledge and history of Australia’s First Peoples must be at the centre of the climate response. </p>
<p>Work has already begun on incorporating Indigenous fire knowledge into mainstream bushfire management, including <a href="https://indigenousknowledge.unimelb.edu.au/news/congratulating-associate-professor-michael-shawn-fletcher-on-receiving-a-prestigious-arc-grant">research</a> that tests this knowledge in highly flammable forests.</p>
<p>More broadly, Caring for Country is based on <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378013000423?casa_token=9fIoH0wsF1EAAAAA:OUoRoh8dU6Qg3BAlDdA0L11lZjtVRpRjj2A_QZFl0bcBhUry5s-4C0D5mfyyzBeMfWN0l-m6g8gB">deep and detailed knowledge</a>. And First Peoples approaches are fundamentally <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10745-019-00085-9">highly adaptive</a>. They are based on relationships, belonging and responsibility to place, and consider social and economic well-being and environment together.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/soaring-housing-costs-are-pushing-retirees-into-areas-where-disaster-risks-are-high-158216">Soaring housing costs are pushing retirees into areas where disaster risks are high</a>
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<img alt="Aboriginal men in traditional dress" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400461/original/file-20210513-3456-t82c65.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Indigenous knowledge should be included and respected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>2. Involve communities</strong></p>
<p>Climate anxiety <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30081-4/fulltext">is growing</a>, partly due to a sense of helplessness and uncertainty that comes with unpredictable change. Community-based adaptation also involves creating a supportive social infrastructure that can address such anxiety. </p>
<p>People have the skills, knowledge and energy to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-021-00921-2">shape robust local plans</a>. Research shows including communities in adaptation planning can help <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2017.1287628">identify specific vulnerabilities</a>. </p>
<p>Communities can also embed anticipation of climate change impacts into <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1177083X.2019.1652659">longer term policy</a> that make sense in that place and to those people. This improves the prospect of success. For example, the City of Newcastle’s <a href="https://www.newcastle.nsw.gov.au/getmedia/2b905379-0035-4856-9ff8-ea41f03afc8d/Climate-Action-Plan">Climate Action Plan</a> takes its cue from <a href="https://www.newcastle.nsw.gov.au/Newcastle/media/Documents/Engagements/Completed/3119-CSP-Strategy-FINAL-WEB.pdf">extensive community consultation</a>. </p>
<p><strong>3. Don’t shy away from hard discussions</strong></p>
<p>Climate change brings risk to homes – from flood, fire, and coastal inundation. Climate adaptation planning must include discussion of what risks a community is willing to tolerate, and whether adaptation pathways should eventually include retreat from some areas.</p>
<p>Recent floods in Western Sydney illustrated well such risks to homes and livelihoods. Urban sprawl in vulnerable locations also <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/stop-putting-people-in-the-way-of-floods-20210321-p57cn6.html">highlights the difficulties</a> with managing past decisions in a new, changing, climate. </p>
<p>Such considerations are particularly important for disadvantaged communities, which are often <a href="https://theconversation.com/soaring-housing-costs-are-pushing-retirees-into-areas-where-disaster-risks-are-high-158216">hardest hit</a> by natural disasters.</p>
<p><strong>4. Consider all types of capital</strong></p>
<p>Governments should properly balance investment and policy support for all capital: natural, human, social, financial and physical. </p>
<p>Research shows economies can be made more resilient to climate change by adopting more sustainable models. For example, regenerative <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/scaling-productive-and-regenerative-agriculture/">agriculture</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-regenerative-farming-can-help-grow-food-with-less-impact-123090">practices</a> can increase production while reducing environmental damage. There are many lessons to be learned here from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/06/all-about-the-land-drought-shakes-farming-to-its-indigenous-roots">Australia’s First Peoples</a>. </p>
<p>In terms of “traditional” capital, many large funds want to understand the climate risk across their portfolios. This includes certainty from governments on climate mitigation and adaptation policies and their respective opportunities. This has been forthcoming from <a href="http://www.lilydambrosio.com.au/media-releases/climate-plan-to-cut-emissions-and-create-jobs/">some Australian states</a>, and must now be replicated by the federal government. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/managed-retreat-of-settlements-remains-a-tough-call-even-as-homes-flood-and-coasts-erode-157595">Managed retreat of settlements remains a tough call even as homes flood and coasts erode</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="cows in field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400463/original/file-20210513-3456-1x9tvui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regenerative agriculture need not lower farm profits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The future is now</h2>
<p>Australia’s climate is already changing, and this will only worsen. Clearly, we must reimagine how we will adapt to an increasingly uncertain future.</p>
<p>The federal government must provide integrated, long-term national funding and support to help communities and local governments cope with the climate threat. Local adaptation action should be developed, tested and shared in the community before disaster hits.</p>
<p>Amid all this, we must never overlook the vital need for dramatic and immediate emissions reduction. Australia lags the world on climate action, and this week’s budget did <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-budget-should-have-been-a-road-to-australias-low-emissions-future-instead-its-a-flight-of-fancy-160775">little to address that</a>.</p>
<p><em>Mark Stafford Smith, Steve Dovers, Andrew Ash and Taryn Laubenstein contributed to the adaptation summit process, and to this article.</em></p>
<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tayanah O'Donnell has received research funding from Federal and State/Territory governments, including funding for climate adaptation research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Schlosberg has received funding from the Australian Research Council, as well as local and state governments, for research on more fair and just approaches to adaptation planning. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eleanor Robson has previously worked for a parliamentarian in the Australian Labor Party.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Juan Francisco Salazar has received funding from the Australian Research Council as well as local and state government funding. </span></em></p>Australia can take great strides forward in climate policy and action. A reactionary, incremental approach to adaptation will fall short. Now is the time to think big.Tayanah O'Donnell, Director, Future Earth Australia at the Australian Academy of Science and Honorary Associate Professor, Australian National UniversityDavid Schlosberg, Director Sydney Environment Institute and Professor of Environmental Politics, University of SydneyEleanor Robson, Research and Policy Officer, Future Earth Australia, Australian Academy of ScienceJuan Francisco Salazar, Professor, School of Humanities and Communication Arts & Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1553872021-02-21T08:34:27Z2021-02-21T08:34:27ZAt last, climate science may be able to predict tropical Atlantic weather better<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385082/original/file-20210218-16-vegs00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The possibility of accurate predictions will aid planning adaptation for severe weather conditions </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/overlooking-cape-cod-bay-atlantic-ocean-at-plymouth-long-news-photo/1175320682?adppopup=true">Tim Graham/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, an anomalous warming of the surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is famous for producing months-long unusual weather patterns across the globe. </p>
<p>A similar, albeit lesser known circulation pattern, the Atlantic El Niño, dominates a wide swath of the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic El Niño phenomenon is analogous to the cycles that create Pacific ENSO. But unlike its Pacific counterpart, which has <a href="https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/5/6/826/5123734">proven invaluable</a> for seasonal climate predictions, the Atlantic El Niño is nearly impossible to predict. </p>
<p>The broad shifts in weather regimes known as ENSO occur when a massive swath of warm water forms off the coast of South America and extends into the central Pacific. The warmth of the water changes the flow of air in the Pacific. This in turn alters the weather patterns in countries bordering the Pacific and beyond as air movements around the globe adjust to the conditions in the Pacific. Because the movement of warm and cold waters occurs rather slowly across the vast stretch of the Pacific, climate scientists are able to predict the arrival of ENSO and accompanying weird weather conditions up to nine months in advance. </p>
<p>This allows the affected countries to prepare for the heavy rainfall and floods in eastern Africa and drought in southern Africa that an ENSO brings them at irregular intervals of 2-7 years. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/20/1/jcli3992.1.xml">many ways</a>, the Atlantic El Niño is like the Pacific-based ENSO. It follows a closely similar pattern of alterations in ocean and the overlying air movements. It occurs when warmer-than-normal waters form in the equatorial Atlantic region bordering the Guinea Coast of Africa, and extending towards the northern parts of South America. This has been linked to heavy rainfall and floods in coastal West Africa from Sierra Leone to southern Nigeria, and droughts in the semi-arid Sahel.</p>
<p>But climate scientists have struggled to understand what causes the Atlantic El Niño to emerge. I recently led <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20452-1">a study</a> that offers new insights, raising hope for improved climate predictions and better preparation.</p>
<h2>The big puzzle</h2>
<p>The air and ocean waters are essentially interwoven. Waters in the ocean move because winds blow on them. The air moves faster than the ocean waters below it. The water responds more slowly. This way, the ocean water forms a distinct pattern of movements, which redistributes heat slowly over a period of several months. Scientists are able use climate models to track the water movements, and predict El Niño events. </p>
<p>Because the El Niño patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are considered to be similar, one would expect them to be similarly predictable. This is not so. The Pacific pattern is relatively easy to predict while the Atlantic one is almost completely unpredictable. </p>
<p>And there are additional important differences: the Atlantic events are of smaller magnitude and shorter duration. The <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2019.00206/full">reasons</a> for these differences have puzzled climate scientists for decades.</p>
<h2>A different kind of El Niño</h2>
<p>The key question is how essential the movements of warm and cold waters are for the emergence of the Atlantic El Niño events.</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20452-1">study</a> we investigated the seasonal development of the Atlantic warm events, using data from various sources, including in situ observations, reanalysis (in which observations have been blended using climate models), and satellite products. </p>
<p>We identified the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, a band of low air pressure and heavy rainfall stretching across the tropical Atlantic, as the reason why the Atlantic Niño is short-lived. It is only when this zone is very close to or over the equator that the interaction between air and ocean movement is strong enough to cause large climatic impacts. The Intertropical Convergence Zone provides the right conditions in the air to favour the movements of warm and cold waters in the ocean. But the fluctuations in sea surface temperature in the Atlantic are not strong enough to keep the Intertropical Convergence Zone at the equator, as in the case in the Pacific ENSO.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms9895">Computer climate simulations</a> show that air, rather than ocean water, movements are key to the Atlantic warm events. One set of simulations was conventional, trying to incorporate the detailed air and water movements. The second set reduced the complexity by modelling the ocean simply as a slab of motionless water with a thickness of only 50 metres. </p>
<p>This model was formulated in such a way that the ocean could absorb heat, emit heat, and evaporate moisture into the air, but the movements of warm and cold water within the ocean itself were ignored. The atmosphere alone accounts for 63% of the Atlantic El Niño events in these simulations. </p>
<p>This implies the movements of water in the ocean, as observed in the Pacific, are of lesser importance in the Atlantic. The Atlantic is “naturally” less predictable.</p>
<p>This is why our new findings, which established a strong connection to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, are important. The zone needs to be represented more realistically in the climate models and this will make them more accurate and reliable.</p>
<h2>Going forward</h2>
<p>The African and South American countries bordering the equatorial Atlantic <a href="https://marinebio.org/conservation/ocean-dumping/ocean-resources/">strongly depend</a> upon the ocean for societal development, fisheries, and tourism. They are strongly affected by vagaries in weather systems. Accurate climate predictions are essential.</p>
<p>Our findings suggest that accurate predictions, for up to three months, are possible in this region. When realised, this will aid planning adaptation to the severe weather conditions that normally come with Atlantic events. </p>
<p>However, the equatorial Atlantic is a region of <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2019.00206/full">key uncertainties</a> in the climate system: climate models exhibit large errors. And for many parameters, there are large gaps in observations that need to be closed. Closing the observational gaps is a key step in reducing the climate model errors, and improving seasonal climate predictions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155387/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hyacinth C. Nnamchi received funding from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. </span></em></p>With research that offers new insights, there is increased hope for improved climate predictions and better preparation for severe weather conditions.Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Researcher , GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research KielLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1376692020-05-07T15:14:13Z2020-05-07T15:14:13ZChoices in a fog of uncertainty: lessons for coronavirus from climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332704/original/file-20200505-83745-n3q0d5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Governments around the world, driven by the threat of overburdened health systems and mass mortality resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, are being forced to make decisions that have enormous, long-lasting consequences for lives and <a href="https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/president-ramaphosa-announces-nationwide-lockdown">economies</a>. They are doing so without sufficient assurance that the choices they make are the best ones. </p>
<p>The fog of uncertainty can be partly lifted by better use of information that’s emerging around the world. But it will never completely clear. </p>
<p>The most difficult choices are those that have to be made before you know how they will work out.</p>
<p>The challenge of making high-consequence decisions based on imperfect knowledge is not unprecedented. For example, tough policies to mitigate climate change must be adopted long before the world crosses catastrophic thresholds. To guide these decisions, countries rely on imperfect models of the climate system, along with divergent and values-based assumptions about how the future could unfold. </p>
<p>Scientists and policymakers, working together over a period of three decades through the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, have worked out how to guide decisions in the face of uncertainty in such a way that there is broad agreement, and which minimises regrets even if the future does not work out exactly as projected. Their approach has allowed scientists to remain providers of evidence, and politicians to focus on value-based choices. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> to mitigate climate change, signed by 197 countries, was the result of a well-functioning science-policy interaction.</p>
<p>This experience can be applied to the response to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa/covid-19">COVID-19</a> pandemic, without having to reinvent the process. </p>
<p>The best practice guidelines involve making decisions based on the best available information at the time, and progressively improving them in the light of experience and emerging new information. Secondly, they involve using a “multi-model approach” and an ensemble of results, rather than placing all bets on a single prediction. And finally, they use collectively agreed scenarios to explore the full range of options and outcomes.</p>
<h2>Three-pronged approach</h2>
<p>Decisions about containing COVID-19 are inevitably a balancing act between reducing the immediate loss of lives on the one hand, and protecting livelihoods that could be damaged as a result of the actions taken on the other. The models used to support the decisions must be similarly balanced. There is no point in having precise projections about the course of the pandemic, but only a vague idea of the impact on the economy. </p>
<p>At present, these different streams of information are not well integrated.</p>
<p>For the case of using mathematical models to help guide COVID-19 policies, we make the following suggestions based on our collective experience with scientific assessments.</p>
<p><strong>Use what information is available, then adapt:</strong> The novelty of the disease means you start from knowing very little and taking guidance from experiences with similar diseases in the past. You work towards improving modelled projections, using information from a range of sources – from science to public health to the economy. </p>
<p>Nimble and efficient channels of communication ensure that the pace of modelling matches the urgency of the problem.</p>
<p><strong>The multi-model approach:</strong> Using several different models rather than one relies on the same logic that tells you not to put all your savings into a single asset. The most robust approach is to build a portfolio, which is collectively stronger than just one, particularly if they are based on fundamentally different assumptions. </p>
<p>Typically, different models have different purposes, and some are stronger in some respects than others. Some models are good at short-term projections while others are better in the long term. Including more detail is necessary for some purposes, but a less detailed model may be sufficient, and more reliable, for more general policies. </p>
<p>This does not mean you should not winnow out models that are simply wrong. But to do so you need a well-structured, evidence-based test. The statistician <a href="https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2010.00442.x">George Box</a> wisely commented that “all models are wrong, but some are useful”.</p>
<p>For modelling COVID-19 we would similarly encourage a diversity of models.</p>
<p><strong>Scenarios:</strong> Some things cannot be predicted accurately, because they depend on chaotic physical processes, or behaviours that defy simple representation, such as human choices. For these issues you use <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning">scenarios</a>. Scenarios allow the models to be stress-tested, by asking questions such as: What is the range of possible outcomes? How does my decision play out in the worst case, as well as in my preferred case? </p>
<p>The scenarios must be shared between models, or you are unable to tease apart differences in the way models work from differences in model drivers. </p>
<p>The scenarios need to be plausible, but must span a wide range of possibilities if they are not to lead to confirmation bias – our tendency to choose the outcomes that support our prejudices. It is important to include measurable indicators, so that you later know which scenario is playing out. </p>
<p>For COVID-19 we recommend exploring the model predictions over a range of agreed scenarios. For example, one scenario can impose strict lockdown and maintain it over several months. Another can progressively relax the restrictions. And both can be compared to a reference scenario where no policy action is taken.</p>
<p>When many models, several scenarios and uncertain data are used together, the result will be a wide range of predictions. The differences need to be evaluated so it’s clearer which findings have the most supporting evidence. </p>
<h2>Public trust is key</h2>
<p>The balancing act of managing COVID-19 requires public trust, which is fostered by an open, clear and credible process of decision-making. The framework we propose is focused on providing the information needed to make good decisions, but should not assume the right to make the decisions. For that purpose, people elect political leaders to represent their rights and values. </p>
<p>This approach has been successfully applied elsewhere, for instance in the protection of the <a href="https://ozone.unep.org/treaties/montreal-protocol">ozone layer</a>, and mobilising action to halt <a href="https://ipbes.net/global-assessment">biodiversity loss</a>. In South Africa, it recently aided sensible decisions regarding <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-unpacking-the-issues-around-fracking-in-south-africa-80513">fracking in the Karoo</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Scholes has received funding from the IPCC Trust Fund, the IPBES Trust Fund, and the Government of South Africa to conduct scientific assessments. He is a member of the COVID-19 Environmental Reference Group (CERG), which functions under the auspices of the Department of Science and Innovation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Albertus Smit receives funding from the NRF, Belmont Forum, SANOCEAN, and EU H2020 to conduct scientific research. He is part of CERG.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francois Engelbrecht has recieved funding from the IPCC Trust Fund and is currently acting as Lead Author of Assessment Report Six of the IPCC. He is a member of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and a Scientific Steering Group member of CLIVAR of the WCRP. He currently manages a research grant in the NRF Earth System Science Research Programme. He is a member of CERG. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Guy Franklin Midgley works for University of Stellenbosch. He receives funding from NRF. He is a member of CERG</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Fitchett receives funding from the DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence for Palaeoscience. She is a member of CERG. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neville Sweijd receives funding from the National Research Foundation and the Department of Science and Innovation. He is the convener of CERG. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pedro M.S. Monteiro receives funding from National Research Foundation, Department of Science and Innovation, EU-H2020. IPCC Trust Fund to participate as CLA in the AR6-WG1 assessment Lead Author meetings. He is a member of CERG</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pravesh Debba received research funding from DSI and NRF in the past. He is currently employed at CSIR and a member of CERG.</span></em></p>The science to policy process that was developed to guide climate mitigation decisions can be applied to the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, without having to be reinvented.Robert (Bob) Scholes, Acting Director of the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, University of the WitwatersrandAlbertus J. Smit, Associate Professor, Marine Biology, University of the Western CapeFrancois Alwyn Engelbrecht, Professor of Climatology, University of the WitwatersrandGuy Franklin Midgley, Professor in Botany, Zoology and Ecology, Stellenbosch UniversityJennifer Fitchett, Associate Professor of Physical Geography, University of the WitwatersrandNeville Sweijd, Director Alliance for Climate and Earth Systems Science (ACCESS), Applied Centre for Climate and Earth Systems SciencePedro M.S. Monteiro, Head of Ocean Systems and Climate, Council for Scientific and Industrial ResearchPravesh Debba, Impact Area Manager for Inclusive Smart Settlements and Regions, CSIR and Visiting Professor at the School of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, Wits University, Council for Scientific and Industrial ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1266612019-11-13T19:01:08Z2019-11-13T19:01:08ZClimate change fueled the rise and demise of the Neo-Assyrian Empire, superpower of the ancient world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301411/original/file-20191113-37401-1f01jrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2402%2C1938&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ashurbanipal, last major ruler of the Assyrian Empire, couldn't outrun the effects of climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">British Museum</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ancient Mesopotamia, the fabled land between the Tigris and the Euphrates rivers, was the command and control center of the <a href="http://www.en.uni-muenchen.de/news/newsarchiv/2018/mooc_radner.html">Neo-Assyrian Empire</a>. This ancient superpower was the largest empire of its time, lasting from 912 BC to 609 BC in what is now modern Iraq and Syria. At its height, the Assyrian state stretched from the Mediterranean and Egypt in the west to the Persian Gulf and western Iran in the east.</p>
<p>Then, in an astonishing reversal of fortune, the Neo-Assyrian Empire plummeted from its zenith (circa 650 BC) to <a href="https://www.eisenbrauns.org/books/titles/978-1-57506-754-4.html">complete political collapse</a> within the span of just a few decades. What happened?</p>
<p>Numerous theories attempt to explain the Assyrian collapse. Most researchers attribute it to imperial overexpansion, civil wars, political unrest and Assyrian military defeat by a coalition of Babylonian and Median forces in 612 BC. But exactly how these two small armies were able to annihilate what was then the most powerful military force in the world has <a href="https://ucl.rl.talis.com/items/DDBEC935-1F16-2C7B-7370-3D5BED633425.html">mystified historians and archaeologists</a> for more than a hundred years.</p>
<p>Our new research published in the journal Science Advances <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/11/eaax6656">sheds light on these mysteries</a>. We show that climate change was the proverbial double-edged sword that first contributed to the meteoric rise of the Neo-Assyrian Empire and then to its precipitous collapse.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301416/original/file-20191113-37425-u6r88t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301416/original/file-20191113-37425-u6r88t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301416/original/file-20191113-37425-u6r88t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301416/original/file-20191113-37425-u6r88t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301416/original/file-20191113-37425-u6r88t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301416/original/file-20191113-37425-u6r88t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301416/original/file-20191113-37425-u6r88t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301416/original/file-20191113-37425-u6r88t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An artist’s vision of the interior of an Assyrian palace, based on drawings made in 1849 by Austen Henry Layard on the site of 19th century excavations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">New York Public library digital collections</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Booming right up to an unexpected bust</h2>
<p>The Neo-Assyrian state was an economic powerhouse. Its formidable <a href="https://www.ancient.eu/Assyrian_Warfare/">war machine</a> boasted a large standing army with cavalry, chariots and iron weaponry. For over two centuries, the mighty Assyrians waged relentless military campaigns with ruthless efficiency. They conquered, plundered and subjugated major regional powers across the Near and Middle East, as each Assyrian king tried to outshine his predecessor.</p>
<p><a href="http://etc.ancient.eu/photos/assyrian-lion-hunting-british-museum/">Ashurbanipal</a>, the last great king of Assyria, ruled this vast empire from the <a href="https://www.britishmuseum.org/collection/galleries/assyria-nineveh">ancient city of Nineveh</a>, the ruins of which lie across the Tigris River from modern Mosul, Iraq. Nineveh was a sprawling metropolis of unprecedented size and grandeur filled with temples and palace complexes, with exotic gardens that were watered by an extensive system of canals and aqueducts.</p>
<p>And then it all ended within just a few years. Why?</p>
<p>Our research group wanted to investigate climate conditions over the few centuries when the Neo-Assyrian Empire took hold and then eventually collapsed. </p>
<h2>Building a picture of climate 2,600 years ago</h2>
<p>For clues about rainfall patterns over northern Mesopotamia, we turned to Kuna Ba cave, located near Nineveh.</p>
<p>Our colleagues collected samples from the cave’s stalagmites. These are the cone-like structures that point upward from the cave floor. They grow slowly, from the ground up, as rainwater drips down from the cave ceiling, depositing dissolved minerals.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301570/original/file-20191113-77326-1fwa01o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301570/original/file-20191113-77326-1fwa01o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301570/original/file-20191113-77326-1fwa01o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301570/original/file-20191113-77326-1fwa01o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301570/original/file-20191113-77326-1fwa01o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301570/original/file-20191113-77326-1fwa01o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301570/original/file-20191113-77326-1fwa01o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301570/original/file-20191113-77326-1fwa01o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The layers of a stalagmite record the climate conditions of the time when they were created.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ashish Sinha</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The rainwater naturally contains heavy and light isotopes of oxygen – that is, atoms of oxygen that have different numbers of neutrons. Subtle variations in the oxygen isotope ratios can be sensitive indicators of climatic conditions at the time the rainwater originally fell. <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Paleoclimatology_Speleothems">As stalagmites grow</a>, they lock into their structure the oxygen isotope ratios of the percolating rainwater that seeps into the cave.</p>
<p>We painstakingly pieced together the climatic history of northern Mesopotamia by carefully drilling into stalagmites, across their growth rings, which are similar to those of trees. In each sample, we measured the oxygen isotope ratios to build a timeline of how conditions changed. That told us the order of events but didn’t tell us the amount of time that elapsed between them.</p>
<p>Luckily, the stalagmites also trap uranium, an element that’s ever-present in trace amounts in the infiltrating water. Over time, uranium decays into thorium at a predictable pace. So the dating experts on our research team made scores of high-precision <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-814124-3.00128-X">uranium-thorium measurements</a> on stalagmite growth layers.</p>
<p>Together these two kinds of measurements let us anchor our climate record to precise calendar years.</p>
<h2>Unusual wet period, then massive drought</h2>
<p>Now a direct comparison of the stalagmite climate record with the historical and archaeological records from the region was possible. We wanted to place the key events of Neo-Assyrian history into the long-term context of our climate reconstruction.</p>
<p>We found that the most significant expansion phase of the Neo-Assyrian state occurred during a two-centuries-long interval of anomalously wet climate, as compared with the previous 4,000 years. Called a megapluvial period, this time of unusually high rainfall was immediately followed by megadroughts during the early-to-mid-seventh century BC. These ancient dry conditions were as severe as recent droughts in Iraq and Syria but lasted for decades. The period marking the collapse of the Neo-Assyrian Empire occurred well within this time frame.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301568/original/file-20191113-77315-fxb77e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301568/original/file-20191113-77315-fxb77e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301568/original/file-20191113-77315-fxb77e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301568/original/file-20191113-77315-fxb77e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301568/original/file-20191113-77315-fxb77e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301568/original/file-20191113-77315-fxb77e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301568/original/file-20191113-77315-fxb77e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301568/original/file-20191113-77315-fxb77e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Neo-Assyrian Empire rose during an unusual time of wet climate and collapsed soon after conditions swung to unusual dryness.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ashish Sinha</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mindful of the caveat that correlation doesn’t imply causation, we were interested in how this wild climate swing – an unusually rainy period that ended in drought – could have influenced an empire.</p>
<p>While the Neo-Assyrian state was huge in its final few decades, its economic core was always confined to a rather small region. This relatively <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/sargon/essentials/countries/centralassyria/">small area</a> in northern Mesopotamia served as a primary source of agricultural revenues and powered Assyrian military campaigns.</p>
<p>We argue that nearly two centuries of unusually wet conditions in this otherwise semi-arid region allowed for agriculture to flourish and energized the Assyrian economy. The climate acted as a catalyst for the creation of a dense network of urban and rural settlements in the unsettled zones that previously hadn’t been able to support farming.</p>
<p>Our data show the wet period abruptly ended and the pendulum swung the other way. In the grips of recurring megadroughts, the Assyrian core and its hinterlands would have been engulfed within a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10963-014-9072-2">zone of uncertainty</a>” – a corridor of land where the rainfall is highly erratic and any rain-fed agriculture comes with a large risk of crop failure.</p>
<p>Repeated crop failures likely exacerbated the political unrest in Assyria, crippled its economy and empowered the adjacent rival states. </p>
<h2>Uncertain climate, unsustainable growth</h2>
<p>Our findings have current-day implications.</p>
<p>In modern times, the same region that once constituted the Assyrian core has been repeatedly struck by multiyear droughts. The catastrophic <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421533112">drought of 2007–2008</a> in northern Iraq and Syria, the most severe in the past 50 years, led to cereal crop failures across the region.</p>
<p>Droughts like this one offer a glimpse of what Assyrians endured during the mid-seventh century BC. And the collapse of the Neo-Assyrian Empire offers a warning to today’s societies.</p>
<p>Climate change is here to stay. In the 21st century, people have what Neo-Assyrians did not: the benefit of hindsight and plenty of observational data. Unsustainable growth in politically volatile and water-stressed regions is a time-tested recipe for disaster.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re too busy to read everything. We get it. That’s why we’ve got a weekly newsletter.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybusy">Sign up for good Sunday reading</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126661/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ashish Sinha receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gayatri Kathayat receives funding from National Science Foundation of China.</span></em></p>What caused the rise and then collapse 2,600 years ago of this vast empire centered on Mesopotamia? Clues from a cave in northern Iraq point to abrupt climate change.Ashish Sinha, Professor of Earth and Climate Sciences, California State University, Dominguez HillsGayatri Kathayat, Associate Professor of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1101292019-01-22T10:19:05Z2019-01-22T10:19:05Z“Weather” and “climate” are used interchangeably. They shouldn’t be<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254693/original/file-20190121-100292-16ov6qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Heavy snow in Washington, DC, is an example of "weather" - not "climate".</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ERIK S. LESSER/EPA-EFE</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As January 2019 entered its third week, huge swathes of the US are blanketed with snow, and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/19/us/weekend-winter-storm-wxc/index.html">winter storm warnings</a> were in place across several states. US President Donald Trump, who has made it clear that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46351940">he believes</a> climate change is an overblown hoax, took to Twitter to suggest that “a little of that good old fashioned Global Warming” would be welcome.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1086971499725160448"}"></div></p>
<p>Trump has fallen into the same trap that many people around the world do: conflating “climate” and “weather”. The US’s current snow storms and cold snap are an example of weather - they will persist for a couple of days to a few weeks at maximum, but will eventually stop and make way for clear skies and inevitably a warm summer for much of the US. </p>
<p>This confusion is common. So, what is the difference between “weather” and “climate”? </p>
<p>At a very simple level, “weather” refers to day-to-day conditions of the atmosphere - the maximum temperature, the amount of cloud cover, the speed and direction of wind and any precipitation that might occur. “Climate” describes the average atmospheric conditions over many years - the average annual rainfall, the predominant wind direction, or the season in which rain is likely to occur. The World Meteorological Organisation <a href="https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=4166">states</a> that calculating a “climate” record requires a minimum of 30 years of data.</p>
<p>But does that mean the rain, sun, wind, hot days and cold nights over the last 29 years is just “weather”? Not really.</p>
<p>Clothing provides a useful analogy in understanding this.</p>
<h2>Your weather wardrobe</h2>
<p>Weather, in this analogy, can be considered by the clothes that we choose to wear on a given day. I’m writing from South Africa, where January and February are the peak of summer. At this time of year, South Africans are likely to wear shorts, t-shirts, sundresses, sandals or flip-flops and perhaps a sunhat. We are very unlikely to wear a warm winter coat, boots, a scarf or a beanie today. </p>
<p>However, in South Africa’s wintertime those clothes would be a good choice – paired with warm trousers, a long-sleeved shirt and in mid-July perhaps even some thermals. </p>
<p>If it is a bit cooler tomorrow, with a chance of rain, we may wear closed shoes and a thin jersey. If it is even hotter we may head to the beach or the swimming pool, in which case our clothing choice for the day would involve a swimming costume and towel. So, what we wear changes day-to-day.</p>
<p>Climate, on the other hand, can be understood as the contents of our wardrobe. This consists of a variety of clothing: both that which suits summer weather and those items which are best worn in winter. Our wardrobe, then, represents all the weather conditions one is likely to face throughout the year, for every year that we live in a particular place.</p>
<p>Place is important. The wardrobe of someone living in Johannesburg, South Africa, is very different to the collection of clothes owned by a resident of Helsinki, Finland. South Africans certainly don’t need thermal clothing for sub -20°C temperatures, and Finns have little use for sundresses and shorts (unless, of course, people are heading off on holiday). </p>
<p>The same is true of weather and climate. The conditions experienced at one location necessarily different to those experienced at differing distance to the poles.</p>
<h2>Improved understanding</h2>
<p>What does this knowledge mean for our understanding of climate projections and climate forecasts? </p>
<p>A forecast is what you will see on the televised weather report each night, or on your phone’s weather app. It will tell you the minimum and maximum temperatures likely to occur, and the chance of rainfall. It will also include any alerts for extreme events likely to occur in the next 24 to 72 hours. The weather forecast is helping you choose what to wear.</p>
<p>Climate projections, whether derived from regional and global climate models or from statistical trend analysis of fluctuations over past decades, tell us about the anticipated climate in the next few decades to 100 years. These are letting us know, well in advance, that we may need to think about changing the contents of our wardrobe. We perhaps should invest in fewer thermals and thick coats, and more sundresses and shorts. </p>
<p>We might need to buy a more hardy umbrella or raincoat for more frequent use, or perhaps a water tank for our backyard depending on where we live. But, we do not need to spend the contents of our most recent salary on a whole new wardrobe and throw out everything we have overnight – just slowly, over years to decades, plan and adapt.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Fitchett receives funding from the Society of South African Geographer's Centenary Award for Emerging Career Researchers, and funding from the DST-NRF Centre of Excellence for Palaeoscience</span></em></p>At a very simple level, “weather” refers to day-to-day conditions. “Climate” describes the average over many years.Jennifer Fitchett, Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/947112018-04-10T10:37:17Z2018-04-10T10:37:17ZThe Trump administration, slanted science and the environment: 4 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213949/original/file-20180409-114128-i6codq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">March for Science in Portland, Oregon, April 22, 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d9/March_for_Science%2C_PDX%2C_2017_-_29.jpg">Another Believer</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Scientists and environmental advocates will be speaking out this month about the Trump administration and what they view as its abuses of science. This year’s <a href="https://www.marchforscience.com/advocacy">March for Science</a> on Saturday, April 14, has a goal of holding leaders accountable for “developing and enacting evidence-based policy.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.earthday.org/">Earth Day</a>, which falls on Sunday, April 22 this year, is approaching its 50th anniversary and has become a global event. Although many Earth Day events will focus on issues – such as this year’s theme, plastic pollution – the Trump administration’s efforts to roll back environmental regulation will also loom large. </p>
<p>These articles from our archives provide some examples to support charges that the Trump administration is politicizing science on climate change and other environmental issues to drive an anti-regulatory agenda.</p>
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<h2>1. Restricting information</h2>
<p>Across many federal agencies, information about climate change and policies to address it has been removed from the internet or archived in hard-to-access locations. Terms like “climate change” have been removed from agency websites, and others have been renamed. For example, the Department of Energy’s Clean Energy Investment Center is now simply the Energy Investor Center.</p>
<p>Morgan Currie, a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University’s Digital Civil Society Lab, and Britt S. Paris, a Ph.D. student in information studies at UCLA, acknowledge that public information on government activities changes to reflect the policy directives of different administrations. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/buried-altered-silenced-4-ways-government-climate-information-has-changed-since-trump-took-office-92323">as they note</a>, climate change is still occurring, whether it is reported or not:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“In our view, burying climate science diminishes our democracy. It denies the average citizen the information necessary to make informed decisions, and fuels the flames of rhetoric that denies consensus-based science.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213954/original/file-20180409-114128-hvv2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213954/original/file-20180409-114128-hvv2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213954/original/file-20180409-114128-hvv2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213954/original/file-20180409-114128-hvv2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213954/original/file-20180409-114128-hvv2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213954/original/file-20180409-114128-hvv2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213954/original/file-20180409-114128-hvv2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213954/original/file-20180409-114128-hvv2th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump shakes hands with EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt after speaking about the U.S. role in the Paris climate change accord, June 1, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Climate-Change-Science-Says/04bb5bc7c0c1478085a171294fe36c6f/130/0">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Stacking advisory panels</h2>
<p>Many scientists provide advice without pay to federal agencies on issues within their areas of expertise. But the Trump administration has downgraded or eliminated independent scientific input on a number of key issues. </p>
<p>For example, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt has barred scientists receiving agency grants from serving on EPA advisory committees, and has <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/11/epa-unveils-new-industry-friendlier-science-advisory-boards">replaced</a> a number of academic board members with representative of industries and state governments. </p>
<p>Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke has created a new advisory board on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/zinke-creates-new-outdoor-recreation-panel-made-up-entirely-of-industry-advisers/2018/03/26/04f3e960-2f9a-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html?utm_term=.93b40b1aa48a">recreation</a> that is heavily weighted toward industry and another on <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2018/03/15/trump-wildlife-protection-board-trophy-hunters/">international wildlife protection</a> made up mainly of trophy hunters. </p>
<p>Past administrations that tried to stack advisory boards ultimately <a href="https://theconversation.com/history-shows-that-stacking-federal-science-advisory-committees-doesnt-work-80590">failed to achieve their goals</a>, according to Donald Boesch, a professor of marine science at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science who has served on many federal advisory committees. Other scientists, not affiliated with the administration, will call out biased conclusions and unsupported recommendations from these slanted panels, Boesch predicts:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Consequently, policies and regulations based on the panels’ recommendations will be less likely to withstand public or political scrutiny and be more open to legal challenges than if they were based on more balanced input.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213956/original/file-20180409-114128-e31et0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213956/original/file-20180409-114128-e31et0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213956/original/file-20180409-114128-e31et0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213956/original/file-20180409-114128-e31et0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213956/original/file-20180409-114128-e31et0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213956/original/file-20180409-114128-e31et0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213956/original/file-20180409-114128-e31et0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213956/original/file-20180409-114128-e31et0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, flanked by U.S. Sen. Todd Young and U.S. Rep. Jackie Walorski, announces his new ‘Made in America Recreation Advisory Committee,’ July 18, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/WDWnmr">DOI</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Manufacturing controversy</h2>
<p>Although his proposal was ultimately <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/09/climate/pruitt-red-team-climate-debate-kelly.html">rejected</a> by the White House, EPA administrator Pruitt campaigned energetically in 2017 for a “red team-blue team” review of current climate science. Such an exercise, Pruitt asserted, would provide fresh perspective.</p>
<p>Critics viewed this idea as an attempt to undercut a widely supported consensus that human actions are changing Earth’s climate, by putting climate deniers on an equal footing with mainstream experts. </p>
<p>Red team-blue team exercises center on “the spirit of challenge by an antagonist,” explains University of Michigan climate scientist Richard Rood, who has participated in these types of reviews. Rather than shedding light on serious scientific questions, Rood <a href="https://theconversation.com/red-team-blue-team-debating-climate-science-should-not-be-a-cage-match-80663">describes Pruitt’s proposal</a> as a performance designed to advance a political agenda: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Such spectacle will be based on emotional appeal and will rely on manipulating the message about the role that uncertainty plays in scientific investigation. The goal will be the amplification and persistence of public doubt – a goal that would be undoubtedly achieved.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dauzaFv2baY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt says he does not believe carbon dioxide is a primary contributor to climate change, March 10, 2017.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Distorting scientific findings</h2>
<p>Many statements about climate change by Trump administration officials have questioned whether climate change is occurring or have downplayed the need to take action. Most recently, in late March 2018, EPA staffers received a list of “talking points” about climate change that instructed them to emphasize uncertainty when discussing the issue with local communities and Native American tribes.</p>
<p>For example, one point <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/epa-climate-adaptation_us_5abbb5e3e4b04a59a31387d7?ux">stated</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Human activity impacts our changing climate in some manner. The ability to measure with precision the degree and extent of that impact, and what to do about it, are subject to continuing debate and dialogue.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Joe Arvai, a professor of sustainable enterprise at the University of Michigan who served on EPA’s Chartered Science Advisory Board from 2011 to 2017, <a href="https://theconversation.com/im-suing-scott-pruitts-broken-epa-heres-how-to-fix-it-94089">calls this framing an exaggeration</a> of uncertainties around the human causes of climate change. “In effect, Pruitt is asking EPA staffers to lie,” Arvai contends. </p>
<p>In another area – the health impacts of exposure to pollutants and toxics – Pruitt has proposed to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/26/climate/epa-scientific-transparency-honest-act.html">change EPA policy</a> so that the agency would only consider scientific research if underlying raw data can be made public for external scientists and organizations to review. Pruitt says this approach will increase transparency, but Arvai argues otherwise: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“[I]n reality, this rule would mean that critical public health studies could no longer be used to inform EPA policy because some of the data are protected by doctor-patient or researcher-participant confidentiality.”</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94711/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The March for Science on April 14 and Earth Day on April 22 are likely to generate big crowds demonstrating against Trump administration policies. Here are some issues they’ll be marching about.Jennifer Weeks, Senior Environment + Cities Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/923232018-03-21T10:41:48Z2018-03-21T10:41:48ZBuried, altered, silenced: 4 ways government climate information has changed since Trump took office<p>After Donald Trump won the presidential election, hundreds of volunteers around the U.S. came together to “rescue” federal data on climate change, thought to be at risk under the new administration. “<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38324045">Guerilla archivists</a>,” <a href="http://theconversation.com/how-the-guerrilla-archivists-saved-history-and-are-doing-it-again-under-trump-72346">including ourselves</a>, gathered to archive federal websites and preserve scientific data.</p>
<p>But what has happened since? Did the data vanish? </p>
<p>As of one year later, there has been no great purge. Federal data sets related to environmental and climate science are still accessible in the same ways they were before Trump took office. </p>
<p>However, in many other instances, federal agencies have tampered with information about climate change. Across agency websites, documents have disappeared, web pages have vanished and language has shifted in ways that appear to reflect the policies of the new administration.</p>
<p>Two groups have been keeping a watchful eye on developments. We both belong to the <a href="https://envirodatagov.org">Environmental Data Governance Initiative</a>, the organization behind the data rescue events. The initiative now monitors tens of thousands of federal websites with the help of specialized tracking software. In January, <a href="https://100days.envirodatagov.org/changing-digital-climate/">the group published a report</a> that describes sweeping changes to federal web resources. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Columbia University’s <a href="http://columbiaclimatelaw.com/resources/silencing-science-tracker/">Silencing Science Tracker</a> documents news stories about climate scientists who have been discouraged from conducting, publishing or otherwise communicating scientific research.</p>
<p>These groups have documented four ways that climate-related information has become less accessible since Trump took office. </p>
<h2>1. Documents are difficult to find</h2>
<p>Documents on existing international environmental treaties and national climate policy have been buried or removed from departments’ current websites.</p>
<p>The State Department’s Office of Global Change, for instance, no longer publishes <a href="https://2009-2017.state.gov/e/oes/climate/climateactionreport/index.htm">Climate Action Reports</a>, which the U.S. is obliged to produce under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The reports can no longer be found at their former addresses. Instead, they are archived at new addresses in the Department’s Obama-era web archive, making the reports more difficult for the public to access. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210864/original/file-20180316-104676-1shh34e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210864/original/file-20180316-104676-1shh34e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210864/original/file-20180316-104676-1shh34e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210864/original/file-20180316-104676-1shh34e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210864/original/file-20180316-104676-1shh34e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210864/original/file-20180316-104676-1shh34e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210864/original/file-20180316-104676-1shh34e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210864/original/file-20180316-104676-1shh34e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate reports removed from the State Department website. Versions from Jan. 20, 2017 (left) and Jan. 26, 2017 (right) on the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine. URL: https://www.state.gov/e/oes/climate/climateactionreport/index.htm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Environmental Data Governance Initiative</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In another instance, the Environmental Protection Agency <a href="https://envirodatagov.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/WM-CCR-20-EPA-Greening-EPA-171207-Updated.pdf">removed links</a> to the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/greeningepa/climate-change-adaptation-plans">Climate Change Adaptation Plan</a> documents, which offer guidelines on climate change mitigation. While the web pages still exist on the EPA server, links from key access points on the site have been removed or redirect to a “This Page is Being Updated” notice. </p>
<h2>2. Web pages are buried</h2>
<p>Some administrative pages have disappeared from agency sites and can be accessed only from the Obama-era web archive. </p>
<p>The Bureau of Land Management’s climate change page – which discussed the agency’s climate-friendly approach to land planning – now <a href="http://100days.envirodatagov.org/changing-digital-climate/#kix.r2yt4sq0ofls">exists only</a> in archival form. State Department pages describing the Montreal Protocol, a global effort signed in 1988 to protect the ozone layer, are similarly <a href="http://100days.envirodatagov.org/changing-digital-climate/#kix.rkc6nzrlojwz">displaced</a>. </p>
<p>The EPA appears to have been hit <a href="http://100days.envirodatagov.org/changing-digital-climate/#id.x28x1oq9i36x">the worst</a>. Two hundred of the original 380 web pages on climate and energy resources for state, local and tribal governments are now accessible in archival form only. What’s more, the word “climate” is no longer in the official website’s title. </p>
<p>The EPA also removed the website for the Clean Power Plan, a signature Obama-era regulation that the current administration <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18122017/clean-power-plan-trump-epa-repeal-replace-obama-climate-change-power-plant-emissions">hopes to repeal</a>.</p>
<h2>3. Language has been altered</h2>
<p>Departments have scrubbed websites of environmental terms. The term “climate change,” for instance, no longer exists across certain web pages of several agencies, such as the White House, the Department of Transportation and the Department of the Interior. </p>
<p>Within the Department of Energy, the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/technologytransitions/services/us-department-energys-energy-investor-center">Clean Energy Investment Center</a> removed the term “clean” from its title. The Government Accountability Office <a href="https://envirodatagov.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/WM-CCR-10-GAO-Oil-and-Gas-Updated-170404.pdf">deleted</a> an online warning that “oil and natural gas development pose inherent environmental and public health risks.” </p>
<p>In other cases, language has been changed to reflect the new administration’s agenda. For example, the Bureau of Land Management removed “Clean and Renewable Energy” from its <a href="https://www.blm.gov/basic/national-priorities">list of national priorities</a>, adding “Making America Safe Through Energy Independence” and “Getting America Back to Work” instead. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210866/original/file-20180316-104650-1uegn20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210866/original/file-20180316-104650-1uegn20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210866/original/file-20180316-104650-1uegn20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210866/original/file-20180316-104650-1uegn20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210866/original/file-20180316-104650-1uegn20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210866/original/file-20180316-104650-1uegn20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210866/original/file-20180316-104650-1uegn20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bureau of Land Management’s shifting priorities. Versions from Feb. 7, 2017 (left) and Nov. 26, 2017 (right) on the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine. URL: https://www.blm.gov/about.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Environmental Data Governance Initiative</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Science has been silenced</h2>
<p>But website changes and deletions are just the tip of the iceberg. </p>
<p>Columbia’s <a href="http://columbiaclimatelaw.com/resources/silencing-science-tracker/">Silencing Science Tracker</a> records 116 instances when scientists have been obstructed. The list includes budget cuts, staff cuts, unfilled positions and suspended funds. Climate-related research projects have been canceled and climate fellowships rescinded. In some cases, advisory boards and research centers have been dismantled entirely. </p>
<p>For instance, as of Dec. 31, 2017, the administration had filled <a href="http://columbiaclimatelaw.com/silencing-science-tracker/trump-administration-fails-to-fill-science-positions/">only 20</a> science-related positions out of the 83 total. That pace falls short of both the Obama administration, who had appointed 63, and the Bush administration, who had filled 51, at the same point in time. </p>
<p>The silencing suggests that the <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/trump-cabinet-climate-change-20920">administration values</a> “pro-growth” policies over environmental goals and <a href="https://psmag.com/environment/trumps-impact-on-the-environment">stands with industry</a>, no matter the cost. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>In most cases, it’s <a href="https://100days.envirodatagov.org/changing-digital-climate/#kix.rrvrbcz8jyob">not possible</a> to know who ordered and administered these changes, whether agency staff working independently or the Trump administration itself.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/542165b">History shows us</a> how public information on government activities has changed to reflect the policy directives of different administrations. The Bush era saw a similar chilling affect on scientific research and environmental regulation. Several scientists at the time came forward to accuse the administration of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/jan/16/greenpolitics-georgebush">censoring public awareness</a> efforts about climate change. </p>
<p>In recent years, the U.S. <a href="https://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/WRI14_Fact_Sheet_US_GHG_singles.pdf">has reduced</a> its own greenhouse gas emissions. And the Obama administration invested in combating climate change and making <a href="https://www.data.gov/climate/">related information more available to the public</a>. Now that information is being stifled, but climate change continues, whether it’s documented or not.</p>
<p>These changes are not just damaging to those trying to address climate change. In our view, burying climate science diminishes our democracy. It denies the average citizen the information necessary to make informed decisions, and fuels the flames of rhetoric that denies consensus-based science.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92323/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morgan Currie is affiliated with the Environmental Data Governance Initiative.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Britt S. Paris is affiliated with the Environmental Data and Governance Initiative. </span></em></p>Despite scientists’ initial concerns, federal climate change data sets are still available. But other documents and web pages have changed over the last year.Morgan Currie, Postdoctoral Fellow at the Digital Civil Society Lab, Stanford University, Stanford UniversityBritt S. Paris, Ph.D. Student in Information Studies, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/909292018-03-06T19:30:30Z2018-03-06T19:30:30ZMaking climate models open source makes them even more useful<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209045/original/file-20180306-146675-1qxavh2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">MiMA: an open source way to model the climate.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Martin Jucker</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Designing climate experiments is all but impossible in the real world. We can’t, for instance, study the effects of clouds by taking away all the clouds for a set period of time and seeing what happens. </p>
<p>Instead, we have to design our experiments virtually, by developing computer models. Now, a <a href="https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/843/2018/">new open-source set of climate models</a> has allowed this research to become more collaborative, efficient and reliable.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-scientists-adjust-temperature-records-and-how-you-can-too-36825">Why scientists adjust temperature records, and how you can too</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Full climate models are designed to be as close to nature as possible. They are representations of the combined knowledge of climate science and are without a doubt the best tools to understand what the future might look like. </p>
<p>However, many research projects focus on small parts of the climate, such as sudden wind changes, the temperature in a given region, or ocean currents. For these studies, concentrating on a small detail in a full climate model is like trying to find a needle in the haystack.</p>
<p>It is therefore common practice in such cases to take away the haystack by using simpler climate models. Scientists usually write these models for specific projects. A quote <a href="https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/05/13/einstein-simple/">commonly attributed to Albert Einstein</a> maybe best summarises the process: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”</p>
<p>Here’s an example. In <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0127.1">a paper from last year</a> I looked at the temperature and wind changes in the upper atmosphere close to the Equator. I didn’t need to know what happened in the ocean, and I didn’t need any chemistry, polar ice, or even clouds in my model. So I wrote a much simpler model without these ingredients. It’s called “MiMA” (<strong>M</strong>odel of an <strong>i</strong>dealised <strong>M</strong>oist <strong>A</strong>tmosphere), and is freely available <a href="http://mjucker.github.io/MiMA/">on the web</a>.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8UfaFnGtCrk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">MiMA.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The drawbacks of simpler models</h2>
<p>Of course, using simpler models comes with its own problems. </p>
<p>The main issue is that researchers have to be very clear what the limits are for each model. For instance, it would be hard to study thunderstorms with a model that doesn’t reproduce clouds. </p>
<p>The second issue is that whereas the scientific results may be published, the code itself is typically not. Everyone has to believe that the model does indeed do what the author claims, and to trust that there are no errors in the code.</p>
<p>The third issue with simpler models is that anyone else trying to duplicate or build on published work would have to rebuild a similar model themselves. But given that the two models will be written by two (or more) different people, it is highly unlikely that they will be exactly the same. Also, the time the first author spends on building their model is then spent a second time by a second author, to achieve at best the same result. This is very inefficient.</p>
<h2>Open-source climate models</h2>
<p>To remedy some (if not all) of these issues, some colleagues and I have <a href="https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/843/2018/">built a framework of climate models called Isca</a>. Isca contains models that are easy to obtain, completely free, documented, and come with software to make installation and running easier. All changes are documented and can be reverted. Therefore, it is easy for everyone to use exactly the same models. </p>
<p>The time it would take for everyone to build their own version of the same model can now be used to extend the existing models. More sets of eyes on one model means that errors can be quickly identified and corrected. The time saved could also be used to build new analysis software, which can extract new information from existing simulations.</p>
<p>As a result, the climate models and their resulting scientific experiments become both more flexible and reliable. All of this only works because the code is publicly available and because any changes are continuously tracked and documented.</p>
<p>An example is my own code, MiMA, which is part of Isca. I have been amazed at the breadth of research it is used for. I wrote it to look at the tropical upper atmosphere, but others have since used it to study the life cycle of weather systems, the Indian monsoon, the effect of volcanic eruptions on climate, and so on. And that’s only one year after its first publication.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-models-too-complicated-heres-one-that-everyone-can-use-48758">Climate models too complicated? Here's one that everyone can use</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Making models openly available in this way has another advantage. Using an accessible proof can counter the mistrust of climate science that is still prevalent in some quarters. </p>
<p>The burden of proof automatically falls on the sceptics. As all the code is there and all changes are trackable, it is up to them to point out errors. And if someone does find an error, even better! Correcting it is just another step to make the models even more reliable.</p>
<p>Going open source with scientific code has many more benefits than drawbacks. It allows collaboration between people who don’t even know one another. And, most importantly, it will make our climate models more flexible, more reliable and generally more useful.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Jucker receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. </span></em></p>The creation of climate models with open source code, available for anyone to use, has improved scientific collaboration and helped research get more efficient.Martin Jucker, Maritime Continent Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/800112017-07-04T14:42:39Z2017-07-04T14:42:39ZHow a lack of access to reliable weather data is hurting African farmers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176734/original/file-20170704-17450-iwuyyi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Farmers don't get efficient information on weather changes, improving data can change this. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/52797059@N06/8559475446/in/photolist-ovvDBA-9EZRti-dmQS8x-orSTj4-6R5MWy-bwL1P2-e3nDnN-dp5FoR-oN1qtn-dmQZSR-jAdu2o-dkWnaJ-e18yEA-e3gSDa-jAdLr7-dkWnkN-dmR397-dbV61D-hk86Ux-dmR1Gk-dmR1o4-oMJvkp-e3nxQS-ejST5i-R1j2P-hfpTD7-bs1vKh-bwL1FP-9sS3nr-dmR19k-d9dmBQ-LYUTeq-e3nEkb-8XL16T-dkWiiF-p8nwfy-R1iZz-R1iZ8-5tuCVt-oMYACm-p88Zvn-qLC7TF-8xnCEc-sf1cCP-rMA3y6-rXvBhK-zn1Wun-q29sho">Flickr/CDKNetwork</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Development_Effectiveness_Review_2017/ADER__2017_EN.pdf">More than 70%</a> of Africa’s population depends on subsistence agriculture for food, jobs and income. The continent has immense potential to feed itself and the world – it’s home to over 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land. But this potential isn’t being realised.</p>
<p>Africa is a net food importer. Imports are expected to increase from USD$39 billion in 2016 to over USD$110 billion <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Development_Effectiveness_Review_2017/ADER__2017_EN.pdf">by 2025</a>. </p>
<p>Food production is desperately low in the region. This is largely because of poorly developed farming technologies which drive rain fed farming practices. On top of this is the fact that there are poorly developed climate and weather alert systems to help farmers plan for crop seasons and adopt better ways of farming.</p>
<p>Farmers can’t access reliable and usable weather data. Information is often unavailable and even if it does exist, the quality is poor or it’s inaccessible to those who need it most. Farmers don’t get efficient information on drought forecasts, rainfall distribution and pest outbreaks. </p>
<p>This is because African governments and development agencies don’t understand and prioritise the value of climate and weather data. This has stifled investment in infrastructure and proper functioning of state institutions charged with collecting and serving climate and weather data.</p>
<p>There are funds that African governments can tap into. One example is the <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/initiatives-partnerships/green-climate-fund/">Green Climate Fund</a> adopted in 2011 as the funding arm of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It has raised USD$10.2 billion to finance adaptation and mitigation projects and programmes in developing countries. </p>
<p>For the fund to deliver on its potential, it must finance infrastructure on basic meteorological observations, for example, to generate climate and weather data fit for agricultural purposes. This will provide a boost for farmers’ ability to withstand dry and rainy seasons and to adopt the correct farming practice.</p>
<p>Africa needs to acknowledge and welcome the role of the private sector too. Without its investment Africa won’t be able to bridge the massive gap in infrastructure needed to collect reliable data, and to make it easily available. But that would mean sharing what data there is. A major rethink of how this is viewed is long overdue.</p>
<h2>A lack of data</h2>
<p>In the horn of Africa farmers in Somalia are grappling with droughts and poor rainy seasons. This has affected food production, <a href="http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Press%20release%20Five%20million%20Somalis%20now%20food%20insecure.pdf">making more than 5 million people food insecure</a>. These farmers have no knowledge of how long and how intense the droughts will be. Information like this would help them decide when to plant and harvest.</p>
<p>In Cote d’Ivoire, cocoa farmers live in fear of heavy downpours in the rainy season which can lead to their farms <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cocoa-ivorycoast-weather-idUSKBN18P1PG">flooding</a>. This is a major threat to cocoa which accounts for 20% of the country’s gross domestic product. Around 5 million people <a href="http://www.afd.fr/webdav/site/afd/shared/Notes%20techniques/24-notes-techniques.pdf">depend on the cocoa industry.</a> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176733/original/file-20170704-32624-1x62pw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176733/original/file-20170704-32624-1x62pw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176733/original/file-20170704-32624-1x62pw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176733/original/file-20170704-32624-1x62pw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176733/original/file-20170704-32624-1x62pw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176733/original/file-20170704-32624-1x62pw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176733/original/file-20170704-32624-1x62pw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/176733/original/file-20170704-32624-1x62pw4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cocoa farmers in Cote d’Ivoire can use climate-smart farming practices to know when to ferment and dry cocoa beans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/socodevi/6837299900/in/photolist-7N5UYM-7N9RaU-7N9RqW-79uTLQ-7N9RC3-fEcLAF-fEe2B2-79uJTd-fEWcod-79uTMC-fEonM1-fE6jYD-79uJUs-fEuiBN-fEvFiU-fEvHMQ-fEvNHy-fEekTM-9GLR6H-bqbX4h-bqbDnL-79qSYP-bqbX4j-fEnXJS-qPJXgC-rLCsF1-ed8DUH-bqbDnU-fEvZa7-edeiyw-79uJCL-79uJHu-bqbDo3-bqbX4f-79uTKE-79qT6X-79uJxw-fEei7B-bqbDod-79uKa3-bqbX43-79uKdW-bqbX3W-79qSTF-bqbDo9-DtsqgW-Dn5G7c-rua4Vs-LPPNNB-7N9VE5">Flickr/SOCODEVI</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If farmers were warned about intense rainfall they could take action to try and mitigate the risks. For example, those in low-lying areas could enhance soil structure to improve water filtration in times of flooding.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/how-we-do-it/role-and-operation-of-nmhss">National Meteorological and Hydrological Services</a> is mandated by national laws and recognised in the <a href="https://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/wmo_15-2015_en.pdf">Convention of the World Meteorological Organization.</a>. Its aim is to collect and serve meteorological and hydrological forecasting and warning systems at country level. But it operates well below capacity in several African countries because of under funding and low visibility.</p>
<p>In Africa, about 80% of the data from the meteorological service is unable to provide proper climate information and early warnings. This is as a result of decades of neglect by governments. It is worse in Africa than anywhere else in the world because <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/308581468322487484/pdf/811130PUB0Clim00Box0379830B0PUBLIC0.pdf">massive investment and modernisation is needed</a>.</p>
<p>Some African countries have a small number of operational meteorological stations to make important data available. In the Omo-Gibe region of Ethiopia, for example, <a href="http://www.climdev-africa.org/content/upgrade-hydrological-observation-networks-moves-ahead-ethiopia">hydrological equipment</a> was installed three years ago by the government and the UN Economic Commission for Africa.</p>
<p>But the World Metrological Organization estimates that an additional 4000 to 5000 <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/15932/81113.pdf;sequence=1">basic meteorological observations</a> are needed across the continent. The <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/308581468322487484/pdf/811130PUB0Clim00Box0379830B0PUBLIC0.pdf">World Bank estimates</a> that about USD$1 billion is needed to modernise Africa’s meteorological services. It also estimates that a minimum of USD$400 million to USD$500 million per year will be needed to support modernised systems, including staff costs and operating and maintenance costs.</p>
<h2>The private sector could play a role</h2>
<p>Governments don’t have the capacity and expertise to provide complete solutions, particularly when it comes to the investment needed. They will require partnerships in the agriculture, insurance and telecommunication sectors. These partnerships are necessary for the collection and the delivery of data and for critical services including risk analysis, commodity prices, insurance and secure payment schemes.</p>
<p>There are good examples of innovative solutions being put in place. ECONET, a local mobile phone operator in Zimbabwe, recently started a large scale weather-indexed insurance <a href="http://www.pressreader.com/south-africa/business-day/20130927/281698317449249">for farmers in Zimbabwe</a>, known as Ecofarmer. The service has benefited <a href="http://www.techzim.co.zw/2016/09/econet-grown-insurance-service-ecofarmer-close-million-users-now-figure-get-pay/">900,000 farmers so far</a>.</p>
<p>Strong political support is needed to increase smart systems through partnerships – between national authorities, technical agencies, non-governmental organisations and the private sector.</p>
<p>But, most importantly, African governments must invest in modernising their weather and climate data. And they must forge strong partnerships with private companies and businesses.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Yeboah is affiliated with Center for Social Impact Studies, a non-governmental organisation based in Ghana that advocates for sustainable mining and oil and gas extraction in Africa.</span></em></p>Information to weather changes is often unavailable to Africa’s farmers and even if it does exist, the quality is poor or inaccessible to those who need it most.Stephen Yeboah, PhD student, Swiss Graduate School of Public Administration (IDHEAP), Université de LausanneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/723462017-02-22T02:09:21Z2017-02-22T02:09:21ZHow the ‘guerrilla archivists’ saved history – and are doing it again under Trump<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157387/original/image-20170217-10193-1dbx9pp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Both sea ice and government data are disappearing.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usgeologicalsurvey/32682616471/in/photolist-RN3Xer-bgGiJR-br9u74-paP1hE-hngP7h-qxu454-fgRjo6-hngJua-hngN1j-bq4JLC-7aRWY7-s6Tp1q-dkeuto-5GD1i9-4chkWQ-5p59sA-dNwK8K-oERpnX-4H36D8-5GyRZc-fh6FTU-5vWHf5-eGKYh6-aC4EwW-jq8ouH-74oqeE-5yXjwB-5yXjyH-5yXjCB-7kXBvy-5z2BK5-fgRkXv-eGL8iH-fgRoUr-745Zz8-4dn7uw-nDfqjS-eGScmE-fh6y9q-fh6KoL-fgRe9D-4dia18-fh6GKY-fh6Hgb-q6m6Eh-4bYrmw-6QtpAN-fh6snA-eGS6tq-914qdE">U.S. Geological Survey, flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Inauguration Day, a group of students, researchers and librarians gathered in a nondescript building on the north side of the University of California, Los Angeles campus, against a backdrop of pelting rain.</p>
<p>The group had organized in protest against the new U.S. administration. But, instead of marching and chanting, participants were there to learn how to <a href="https://www.ppehlab.org/blogposts/?offset=1485384719745">“harvest,” “seed,” “scrape” and ultimately archive</a> websites and data sets related to climate change.</p>
<p>The need for such work quickly became palpable. Within hours of Trump’s inauguration ceremony, official statements on anthropogenic, or man-made, climate change vanished from governmental websites, including <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/us/politics/trump-white-house-website.html?_r=0">whitehouse.gov</a> and that of the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-epa-climatechange-idUSKBN15906G">Environmental Protection Agency</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.climatedataprotection.net/past-events.html">UCLA event</a> was one of several “data rescue” missions that have cropped up around the U.S., supervised by the <a href="https://envirodatagov.org/">Environmental Data Governance Initiative</a>, an international network focused on threats to federal environmental and energy policy, and the <a href="http://www.ppehlab.org/">University of Pennsylvania’s Program for Environmental Humanities</a>. </p>
<p>These workshops address the very existential dangers the Trump administration presents – not only to the modest climate protection goals set by the global community in the last 40 years, but to the mainstream science that investigates how humans are changing the planet. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157190/original/image-20170216-32694-1nd7ru0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157190/original/image-20170216-32694-1nd7ru0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157190/original/image-20170216-32694-1nd7ru0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157190/original/image-20170216-32694-1nd7ru0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157190/original/image-20170216-32694-1nd7ru0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157190/original/image-20170216-32694-1nd7ru0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157190/original/image-20170216-32694-1nd7ru0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data Rescue workshop, Protecting Climate Data in Times of Political Turmoil, held at UCLA on Jan. 20.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jennifer Pierre</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Michelle Murphy, Patrick Keilty and Matt Price at the University of Toronto, who launched the <a href="http://www.metronews.ca/news/toronto/2016/12/13/toronto-group-to-save-science-data-from-trump-.html">first data rescue event</a> in December, call this kind of activism “guerrilla archiving.” </p>
<p>“Guerrilla archiving” is a new term, one that can’t be found in scholarly archival literature. But examples of this behavior have cropped up in hostile political climates throughout history. Ordinary people smuggled, copied or collected materials in the fear that ideas – or even the memories of an entire community – might be lost.</p>
<p>Data rescues like the one we organized at UCLA follow in a rich tradition of activist archives throughout history. These past efforts can help us understand today’s work to rescue government data.</p>
<h2>Guerrilla archives through time</h2>
<p>The term “guerrilla” itself comes from the Spanish word for war. It implies irregular, impromptu tactics in a struggle against powerful forces.</p>
<p>Building archives has already been an <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10502-015-9260-6">integral part</a> of social activism. This work challenges the dominant narratives of the past and makes us rethink how we preserve memories for the next generation. </p>
<p>For these activists, archival work is not a neutral act, but a form of political disruption. In Nazi Germany, for example, Franciscan monk H.L. Van Breda risked death to smuggle documents from the estate of <a href="https://hiw.kuleuven.be/hua">Edmund Husserl</a>, a Jewish philosopher and father of the <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/phenomenology/">phenomenological tradition</a>, on a train from Freiburg to Berlin. The documents were held for three months in a safe at the Belgian embassy before traveling to the University of Louvain. They remain at the university archives today, enabling future access to these important philosophical works. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2001/jan/20/history.society">Walter Benjamin</a> handed over his magnum opus on Parisian culture, The Arcades Project, to Georges Bataille, archivist at the Bibliotéque Nationale in Paris during World War II. Bataille hid these documents in a restricted archive until after the war. </p>
<p>In the shadows of Nazi-occupied Europe, these archiving operations took the form of bold political work. They reacted to a regime that wanted to cleanse history entirely of scholarly Jewish voices. </p>
<p>In another example, the <a href="http://www.mazerlesbianarchives.org/">Mazer Lesbian Archive</a> accumulated in a residence in the Altadena neighborhood of Los Angeles throughout the mid-1980s. Dedicated volunteers collected photographs, pamphlets, written correspondence, film projects, plays, poetry and everyday ephemera, from discarded envelopes to cocktail napkins. The archive serves as a testament to the vibrancy and viability of the decade’s largely invisible lesbian culture.</p>
<p>As Alycia Sellie at CUNY Graduate Center and her colleagues <a href="http://academicworks.cuny.edu/gc_pubs/56/">argued in a 2015 paper</a>, community archives like the Mazer offer “local, autonomous spaces for alternative historical narratives and cultural identities to be created and preserved.” These collections often spring up independently of government or scholarly institutions. The creators, feeling politically marginalized, seek to create their own collective identity. </p>
<p>Autonomy is key to the success of these archives, which are often maintained, owned and used by the very people who generate them. By remaining independent from formal institutions, archivists are making a statement about how entrenched organizations play a role in their political necessity in the first place.</p>
<p>Past and present marginalization, slavery and violence to particular minority communities remain central to institutions of American democracy – whether universities or federally funded historical archives. For this reason, we cannot always count on such institutions to meaningfully memorialize on behalf of these voices.</p>
<p>Autonomy from central institutions can also protect valuable materials within politically volatile environments.</p>
<p>In a dramatic and recent example, preservationists and janitors used metal trunks to smuggle historic Islamic documents out of <a href="http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/Race-Save-Mali-Artifacts-180947965/">Timbuktu’s archives</a> into individual homes, basements and closets, and away from advancing ISIS soldiers. </p>
<p>Again, we see that in times of political violence, it becomes necessary to surreptitiously protect items of cultural legacy. These decentralized efforts are vital both to save not only the materials but also the individuals involved. The Timbuktu example shows how guerrilla archiving becomes at once a necessarily collective and distributed act. </p>
<h2>The power of archives</h2>
<p>Today’s data rescue efforts may be high-tech, but they have much in common with the Mazer’s collectors and the Timbuktu smugglers. The work relies on volunteers, and the archives exist on a multitude of servers, not attached to any one central institution. </p>
<p>However, this work is usually thought of as dangerous: It disturbs the hierarchies of power. In some ways, data rescues aim to do the opposite. They reinforce traditional structures of power, protecting data created by government-funded scientists that documents evidence of climate change. Rather than create an alternate narrative of history, data rescues aim to replicate and distribute that data. The political work lies in decentralizing information, not reinterpreting it. </p>
<p>Data rescues strive not to challenge a critical scientific narrative, but to protect it from a “post-truth” mentality that makes climate change denial seem a viable social act, one in which facts pertain only to individual perspectives. </p>
<p>This may be different from some guerrilla archives of the past, but it’s still a way to resist power – power that casts empiricism and our future progress on climate change aside.</p>
<h2>Archiving for the future</h2>
<p>Web mirroring, seeding and scraping, then, have joined the litany of other guerrilla archiving tactics, alongside midnight smuggling operations, marginalized oral history-making, and basement zine collections.</p>
<p>At UCLA’s event, for instance, we focused on “seeding,” or nominating Department of Energy web pages to the Internet Archive’s <a href="http://eotarchive.cdlib.org/2016.html">End of Term project</a>. End of Term is an archive of the .gov website taken during periods of a presidential transitions. The Internet Archive uses an automated web crawler to “scrape,” or replicate, web pages, though this method does not capture many sensitive data sets. </p>
<p>To address this deficiency, we also extracted and downloaded data sets that can’t be scraped with the Internet Archive’s crawler. Participants then archived these “uncrawlable” data sets by uploading them to decentralized data infrastructures, or mirrors, that store the data redundantly on many different servers around the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157191/original/image-20170216-32714-buepyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157191/original/image-20170216-32714-buepyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157191/original/image-20170216-32714-buepyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157191/original/image-20170216-32714-buepyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157191/original/image-20170216-32714-buepyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157191/original/image-20170216-32714-buepyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157191/original/image-20170216-32714-buepyy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data Rescue workshop, Protecting Climate Data in Times of Political Turmoil, held at UCLA on Jan. 20.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jennifer Pierre</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By treating federal scientific data as a public utility, data rescues create an occasion for community and political resistance. In fact, we might find that the importance of mirroring federal climate data lies less in rescuing data sets for the scientific community – since it’s too soon to tell whether more information will vanish or be defunded – but instead in creating spaces for community dialogue and wider public awareness of the vulnerabilities of politically contentious scientific work. By building communities around web mirroring, data rescues already play a political role.</p>
<p>Data rescue events continue to emerge across the U.S., working to outpace any further disappearances of federal climate change information. Guerrilla archiving puts the onus on the data rescue community to preserve this scientific work. In the process, these events foster a collective concern for one another and for the future. </p>
<p>One of the speakers at the UCLA event, Joan Donovan, researcher at the UCLA Institute for Society and Genetics, maintains that this type of work should be seen as a small glimmer of hope: “The question of what can we do in this political climate hostile to climate change has, again, a relatively modest answer: small interventions with grand intention.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72346/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Activists today are racing to save climate records from the Trump administration. Secret archives were a powerful way to fight hostile political climates throughout history – from the Nazis to the Islamic State.Morgan Currie, Lecturer at Woodbury University, University of California, Los AngelesBritt S. Paris, Ph.D. Student in Information Studies, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/730452017-02-20T04:14:50Z2017-02-20T04:14:50ZFactCheck Q&A: was it four degrees hotter 110,000 years ago?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157278/original/image-20170217-4271-6avur5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Senator Jacqui Lambie, speaking on Q&A.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Q&A</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>The Conversation fact-checks claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9:35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VunHZ7cCCyw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<blockquote>
<p>JACQUI LAMBIE: First of all, we’ve always had climate change – it’s been much, much hotter and much, much colder. Even 110,000 years ago, it was four degrees hotter. Charging our pensioners and our businesses and families more for power…</p>
<p>TONY JONES: There’ll be fact checkers on that one, Jacqui…– <strong>Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s4612398.htm">speaking on Q&A</a> with host Tony Jones, February 13, 2017</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>With renewable energy, heatwaves and climate change back in the headlines, Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie told Q&A that it was four degrees hotter 110,000 years ago.</p>
<p>Is that right?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>When asked for sources to support her statement, a spokesman for Jacqui Lambie referred The Conversation to Al Gore’s book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Inconvenient-Truth-Planetary-Emergency-Warming/dp/B000QEJ0WY">An Inconvenient Truth</a> and Tim Flannery’s book <a href="http://www.theweathermakers.org/">The Weather Makers</a>.</p>
<p>The spokesman confirmed that Lambie was referring to 4°C, not Fahrenheit, and added:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… most people think that the average world temperature has been constant for millions of years. The Gore and Flannery books prove it hasn’t.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The detailed response from Lambie’s office, which is available <a href="http://theconversation.com/full-response-from-a-spokesperson-for-jacqui-lambie-for-a-factcheck-on-climate-change-73064">here</a>, included a chart from Gore’s book An Inconvenient Truth, which Lambie’s office had annotated. That chart is based on <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/6080">data</a> from <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/317/5839/793">Antarctic ice cores</a>. A response that The Conversation sourced from Tim Flannery on Lambie’s representation of his work can also be found <a href="http://theconversation.com/full-response-from-a-spokesperson-for-jacqui-lambie-for-a-factcheck-on-climate-change-73064">here</a>. </p>
<p>Let’s check the scientific evidence.</p>
<h2>Warmer, compared to what?</h2>
<p>Most non-scientists probably think in terms of “warmer than today” or “cooler than today”.</p>
<p>However, much of the science on this compares past and projected temperatures to a <a href="https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/defining-pre-industrial/">pre-industrial baseline</a>, not to the temperature today in 2017. That’s because temperatures now are rising too rapidly to serve as a useful baseline. (Industrialisation began in the late 18th century, and the world has warmed by <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/">about 1°C since then</a>).</p>
<p>In this FactCheck, we will talk about both: comparing to pre-industrial levels and comparing to today.</p>
<h2>Was it ‘much, much hotter’ and ‘much, much colder’ in the past?</h2>
<p>Lambie was right to say that the Earth’s climate has always changed and that, at different times, Earth has been hotter and colder than today.</p>
<p>The past 650,000 years of Earth’s history (the interval shown in the annotated chart provided by Lambie’s office) was characterised by large climate swings as Earth moved naturally in and out of “ice ages” <a href="https://theconversation.com/ice-ages-have-been-linked-to-the-earths-wobbly-orbit-but-when-is-the-next-one-70069">triggered by changes in its orbit relative to the Sun</a>. </p>
<p>Initial cooling, brought on by slow changes to the shape of the Earth’s orbit and wobble of the Earth’s axis, was <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-change-science/causes-climate-change">amplified by natural effects</a>, including the growing ice sheets and the drawing down of carbon dioxide into the deep oceans. Over tens of thousands of years these <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jan/05/climate-change-feedback-loops">amplifying feedbacks</a> caused Earth’s climate to descend into an ice age. </p>
<p>At the peak of the last ice age (around 20,000 years ago), Earth’s global average temperature is estimated by scientists to have been about <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v538/n7624/full/nature19798.html">5-6°C cooler</a> than it was during the pre-industrial interval.</p>
<p>So, yes, it is fair to describe the ice ages as much, much colder than now. But were the warm periods of the last 650,000 years “much, much hotter”? </p>
<p>No. The warm climates of the so-called “interglacials” – meaning the period between ice ages – were similar to today. <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v538/n7624/full/nature19798.html">A few of these periods</a> were a little bit hotter; some were a little bit cooler. </p>
<p>None had a <em>global</em> average temperature that was 4°C warmer than either today or pre-industrial times (we will return later to what the data say about <em>local</em> average temperatures).</p>
<h2>How warm was it 110,000 or so years ago?</h2>
<p>There was a warm interglacial period <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379114003382">around 130,000 to 115,000 years ago</a>, before the last ice age. </p>
<p>This last interglacial period <em>was</em> one of the warmest periods of the past 650,000 years. But it wasn’t 4°C hotter globally. </p>
<p>Extensive <a href="http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20130097">scientific evidence from across the globe</a> shows that the global average temperature during this interglacial period was <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v538/n7624/full/nature19798.html">1-2°C warmer</a> than pre-industrial times (or about as warm as it was in 2016).</p>
<p>This evidence comes from <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/what-are-proxy-data">natural climate archives</a>, including the tiny marine organisms that <a href="http://icestories.exploratorium.edu/dispatches/big-ideas/ice-and-sediment-cores/">accumulate as sediment on the bottom of the oceans</a> and whose chemical makeup fluctuates with surface ocean temperatures, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-ice-cores-24302">water molecules in ice cores</a> that reflect air temperatures over the polar regions.</p>
<p>The last time Earth’s average temperature was 4°C warmer than pre-industrial levels was around <a href="http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20120294">5-10 million years ago</a>. To put that in context, modern humans have existed for the last 200,000 years and civilised societies began to form only around 6,000 years ago.</p>
<h2>Global average temperatures versus local warming</h2>
<p>While the global average temperature during the last interglacial period was 1-2°C warmer than pre-industrial times, in some places like Antarctica and Greenland <em>local</em> warming resulted in temperatures as high as, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7433/full/nature11789.html">or even higher than</a>, 4°C warmer. These more extreme <em>local</em> temperature changes near the poles are referred to as
<a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/01/polar-amplification/">polar amplification</a>.</p>
<p>Scientists have used ice-core data to calculate that during the last interglacial period Antarctica was around <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/6080">3-5°C warmer</a> than it was during pre-industrial times. But <em>global</em> average temperatures were not 4°C warmer. </p>
<h2>Why does it matter?</h2>
<p>The fact that Earth has experienced natural climate changes in the past doesn’t downplay the significance of how humans are changing the climate now. </p>
<p>The vast amounts of coal, oil and gas burned since the Industrial Revolution in 1750 has caused the levels of <a href="https://www.co2.earth/">carbon dioxide in our atmosphere to rise</a> very significantly.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UatUDnFmNTY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Time history of atmospheric carbon dioxide, by the Co-operative Institute for Research In Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Natural climate variations have continued to be a factor in Earth’s climate since the Industrial Revolution, but the rapid rise in carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) has been the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/docs/WG1AR5_FAQbrochure_FINAL.pdf">dominant cause of climate warming during the industrial era</a>.</p>
<p>In 2016, the planet’s average surface temperature had risen to be about <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally">1.1°C warmer than in the late 19th century</a>, when instrumental records began. This places our climate today at a similar global average temperature to the last interglacial.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-187" class="tc-infographic" height="2000" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/187/6864d164de3795db8173059dc5a397f7e744e8fd/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>When global average temperatures were 1-2°C warmer than pre-industrial times between 115,000 and 130,000 years ago, this caused so much of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to destabilise and melt that <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/349/6244/aaa4019">sea level rose by 6-9 metres</a>.</p>
<p>It takes time to melt an ice sheet. But in some parts of Antarctica, climate warming since the Industrial Revolution has <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-now-only-watch-as-west-antarcticas-ice-sheets-collapse-26957">already triggered unstoppable changes in the ice sheets</a> that will likely commit us to the higher end of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-the-science-really-say-about-sea-level-rise-56807">28-98cm range of sea-level rise</a> predicted for the end of this century by the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157267/original/image-20170217-4280-742ine.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157267/original/image-20170217-4280-742ine.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157267/original/image-20170217-4280-742ine.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157267/original/image-20170217-4280-742ine.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157267/original/image-20170217-4280-742ine.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157267/original/image-20170217-4280-742ine.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157267/original/image-20170217-4280-742ine.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157267/original/image-20170217-4280-742ine.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Peak global mean temperature, atmospheric CO2, maximum global mean sea level (GMSL), and source(s) of meltwater. Light blue shading indicates uncertainty of GMSL maximum. Red pie charts over Greenland and Antarctica denote fraction (not location) of ice retreat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/349/6244/aaa4019">Dutton et al. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Senator Jacqui Lambie’s description of past climate change on Q&A was not entirely correct. </p>
<p>She was right to say that Earth’s climate has always changed. It always will - driven by a wide range of natural causes, and now dominated by the growing influence of human activities such as burning fossil fuels. And at different times it has been hotter and colder than today.</p>
<p>But was it 4°C hotter 110,000 years ago, as Lambie said? No, not globally. </p>
<p>The Antarctic was about 4°C hotter during last interglacial period (around 130,000-115,000 years ago) than it was in pre-industrial times – but the <em>global</em> average temperature then was closer to 1-2°C warmer than pre-industrial times. </p>
<p>Our climate today is at a similar global average temperature to the last interglacial period about 130,000-115,000 years ago. <strong>– Nerilie Abram</strong></p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>This is a sound FactCheck. It is presented in a clear and accessible manner. In drawing its conclusions it cites a range of peer-reviewed scientific literature in our top journals. It highlights the key distinction between local and global temperature, and our understanding of polar amplification. </p>
<p>I would only add that the rate of warming over the last century is very unusual in the context of glacial and interglacial cycles. When the earth has moved out of ice ages in recent millennia it has taken, <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php">on average, 1,000 years</a> to warm the planet by 1°C. The earth’s temperature in recent decades has risen at around <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php">1°C per 100 years</a>, or <a href="http://theconversation.com/meet-el-ninos-cranky-uncle-that-could-send-global-warming-into-hyperdrive-72360">faster</a>. So the recent <em>rate</em> of warming is very unusual in this context. NASA makes this point <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php">here</a>. </p>
<p>The climate science community is very well aware of the record of past changes in the Earth’s climate. Indeed, these changes are part of the evidence for why we expect the rapid accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activity to produce large changes to the climate. <strong>– Ben Henley</strong></p>
<hr>
<p><div class="callout"> Have you ever seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73045/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nerilie Abram receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Henley receives funding from an ARC Linkage Project and is an associate investigator with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.</span></em></p>During a Q&A discussion about climate change, Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie said it was four degrees hotter 110,000 years ago. Is that right?Nerilie Abram, ARC Future Fellow, Research School of Earth Sciences; Chief Investigator for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/621742016-07-10T20:38:53Z2016-07-10T20:38:53ZHow a single word sparked a four-year saga of climate fact-checking and blog backlash<p>In May 2012, my colleagues and I had a paper accepted for publication in the <a href="https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/journals/journal-of-climate/">Journal of Climate</a>, showing that temperatures recorded in Australasia since 1950 were warmer than at <a href="https://theconversation.com/post-1950s-warming-in-region-unmatched-in-1-000-years-7081">any time in the past 1,000 years</a>.</p>
<p>Following the early online release of the paper, as the manuscript was being prepared for the journal’s print edition, one of our team spotted a typo in the methods section of the manuscript.</p>
<p>While the paper said the study had used “detrended” data – temperature data from which the longer-term trends had been removed – the study had in fact used raw data. When we checked the computer code, the DETREND command said “FALSE” when it should have said “TRUE”.</p>
<p>Both raw and detrended data have been used in similar studies, and both are scientifically justifiable approaches. The issue for our team was the fact that what was written in the paper did not match what was actually done in the analysis – an innocent mistake, but a mistake nonetheless.</p>
<p>Instead of taking the easy way out and just correcting the single word in the page proof, we asked the publisher to put our paper on hold and remove the online version while we assessed the influence that the different method had on the results.</p>
<h2>Enter the bloggers</h2>
<p>It turned out that someone else had spotted the typo too. Two days after we identified the issue, a commenter on the Climate Audit blog also pointed it out. </p>
<p>The website’s author, Stephen McIntyre, <a href="https://climateaudit.org/2012/06/06/gergis-significance/">proceeded to claim</a> (incorrectly) that there were “fundamental issues” with the study. It was the start of a concerted smear campaign aimed at discrediting our science.</p>
<p>As well as being discussed by bloggers (sometimes with a <a href="http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/06/smackdown-of-bimbo-climate-scientist-joelle-gergis-her-ballyhooed-southern-hemisphere-hockey-stick-s.html">deeply offensive and sexist tone</a>), the “flaw” was <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/climate-paper-flawed/story-e6frgcjx-1226393519781">seized upon by sections of the mainstream media</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, our team received a flurry of hate mail and an onslaught of time-consuming Freedom of Information requests for access to our raw data and years of our emails, in search of ammunition to undermine and discredit our team and results. This is part of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/jul/07/climate-scientists-are-under-attack-from-frivolous-lawsuits">range of tactics</a> used in Australia and overseas in an attempt to intimidate scientists and derail our efforts to do our job.</p>
<p>Bloggers began to accuse us of conspiring to reverse-engineer our results to dramatise the warming in our region. Former geologist and prominent climate change sceptic Bob Carter published an <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/settled-science-no-such-thing/story-e6frgd0x-1226409521856">opinion piece in The Australian</a> claiming that the peer-review process is faulty and climate science cannot be trusted.</p>
<h2>Checking the facts</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, we set about rigorously checking and rechecking every step of our study in a bid to dispel any doubts about its accuracy. This included extensive reprocessing of the data using independently generated computer code, three additional statistical methods, detrended and non-detrended approaches, and climate model data to further verify the results.</p>
<p>The mammoth process involved three extra rounds of peer-review and four new peer-reviewers. From the original submission on 3 November, 2011, to the paper’s re-acceptance on 26 April, 2016, the manuscript was reviewed by seven reviewers and two editors, underwent nine rounds of revisions, and was assessed a total of 21 times – not to mention the countless rounds of internal revisions made by our research team and data contributors. One reviewer even commented that we had done “a commendable, perhaps bordering on an insane, amount of work”.</p>
<p>Finally, today, we <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1">publish our study again</a> with virtually the same conclusion: the recent temperatures experienced over the past three decades in Australia, New Zealand and surrounding oceans are warmer than any other 30-year period over the past 1,000 years.</p>
<p>Our updated analysis also gives extra confidence in our results. For example, as the graph below shows, there were some 30-year periods in our palaeoclimate reconstructions during the 12th century that may have been fractionally (0.03–0.04°C) warmer than the 1961–1990 average. But these results are more uncertain as they are based on sparse network of only two records – and in any event, they are still about 0.3°C cooler than the most recent 1985–2014 average recorded by our most accurate instrumental climate network available for the region.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129665/original/image-20160707-30718-1djptnf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129665/original/image-20160707-30718-1djptnf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129665/original/image-20160707-30718-1djptnf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129665/original/image-20160707-30718-1djptnf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129665/original/image-20160707-30718-1djptnf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129665/original/image-20160707-30718-1djptnf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129665/original/image-20160707-30718-1djptnf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparison of Australasian temperature reconstructions. Red: original temperature reconstruction published in the May 2012 version of the study; green: more recent reconstruction published in Nature Geoscience in April 2013; black: newly published reconstruction; orange: observed instrumental temperatures. Grey shading shows 90% uncertainty estimates of the original 2012 reconstruction; purple shading shows considerably expanded uncertainty estimates of the revised 2016 version based on four statistical methods. The recent 30-year warming (orange line) lies outside the range of temperature variability reconstruction (black line) over the past 1,000 years.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Overall, we are confident that observed temperatures in Australasia have been warmer in the past 30 years than every other 30-year period over the entire millennium (90% confidence based on 12,000 reconstructions, developed using four independent statistical methods and three different data subsets). Importantly, the climate modelling component of our study also shows that only human-caused greenhouse emissions can explain the recent warming recorded in our region.</p>
<p>Our study now joins the vast body of evidence showing that our region, in line with the rest of the planet, has warmed rapidly since 1950, with all the impacts that climate change brings. So far in 2016 we have seen <a href="https://theconversation.com/fires-in-tasmanias-ancient-forests-are-a-warning-for-all-of-us-53806">bushfires ravage Tasmania’s ancient World Heritage rainforests</a>, while <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/07/the-great-barrier-reef-a-catastrophe-laid-bare">93% of the Great Barrier Reef</a> has suffered bleaching amid Australia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-summers-sea-temperatures-were-the-hottest-on-record-for-australia-heres-why-56906">hottest ever sea temperatures</a> – an event made <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-would-be-almost-impossible-without-climate-change-58408">175 times more likely by climate change</a>. Worldwide, it has <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-official-2015-was-the-hottest-year-ever-recorded-53283">never been hotter in our recorded history</a>.</p>
<h2>Speed vs accuracy</h2>
<p>There are a couple of lessons we can take away from this ordeal. The first is that it takes far more time and effort to do rigorous science than it does to attack it.</p>
<p>In contrast to the instant gratification of publishing a blog post, the scientific process often takes years of meticulous evaluation and independent expert assessment.</p>
<p>Yes, we made a mistake – a single word in a 74-page document. We used the word “detrended” instead of “non-detrended”. Atoning for this error involved spending four extra years on the study, while withstanding a withering barrage of brutal criticism.</p>
<p>This brings us to the second take-home message. Viciously attacking a researcher at one of Australia’s leading universities as a “bimbo” and a “brain-dead retard” doesn’t do much to encourage professional climate scientists to engage with the scores of online amateur enthusiasts. Worse still, <a href="http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/06/smackdown-of-bimbo-climate-scientist-joelle-gergis-her-ballyhooed-southern-hemisphere-hockey-stick-s.html">gender-based attacks</a> may discourage women from engaging in public debate or pursuing careers in male-dominated careers like science at all.</p>
<p>Although climate change deniers are desperate to be taken seriously by the scientific community, it’s extremely difficult to engage with people who do not display the basic principles of common courtesy, let alone comply with the standard scientific practice of submitting your work to be scrutinised by the world’s leading experts in the field.</p>
<p>Despite the smears, a rummage through hundreds of our emails revealed nothing but a group of colleagues doing their best to resolve an honest mistake under duress. It wasn’t the guilty retreat from a flawed study produced by radical climate activists that the bloggers would have people believe. Instead, it showed the self-correcting nature of science and the steadfast dedication of researchers to work painstakingly around the clock to produce the best science humanly possible. </p>
<p>Rather than take the easy way out, we chose to withdraw our paper and spent years triple-checking every step of our work. After the exhaustive checking, the paper has been published with essentially the same conclusions as before, but now with more confidence in our results. </p>
<p>Like it or not, our story simply highlights the slow and unglamorous process of real science in action. In the end, this saga will be remembered as a footnote in climate science, a storm in a teacup, all played out against the backdrop of a planet that has never been hotter in human history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joelle Gergis receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Australasia’s warming in recent decades is unprecedented in the past millennium. But a mistake in the paper reporting this finding took four years to fix, and was viciously attacked by bloggers.Joelle Gergis, ARC DECRA Climate Research Fellow, School of Earth Sciences, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/587212016-05-02T02:07:06Z2016-05-02T02:07:06ZWorld’s biggest investors risk another more severe global finanical crisis<p>Financial markets are again misunderstanding or ignoring risk, and are certainly under-pricing it, both as individual institutions and systemically. The risk is another global financial crisis.</p>
<p>The GFC of 2008 had its roots in sub-prime housing loans in the United States – simply a punt on US house prices continuing to rise - on which financial institutions built a mountain of debt instruments (CDOs, CLOs, credit default swaps, and the like) that were poorly understood, and certainly over-rated, and underpriced.</p>
<p>When sub-prime loans hit the wall, the mountain collapsed, many institutions failed, the whole global financial system was pushed to the brink of collapse, the global economy to a recession, and governments and policy authorities found themselves mostly rudderless, in unchartered waters. They are still struggling with an effective global response.</p>
<p>This time the risk is climate exposed investments, a risk that Hank Paulson, Secretary of the US Treasury at the time of the last GFC, has said dwarfs the risks run at the time of the sub-prime crisis. Governor of the bank of England Mark Carney has now talked openly of potential financial instability. He has driven the Financial Stability Board which he chairs to investigate.</p>
<p>The risk is that either extreme climate events, and/or government responses to the challenge of climate change, and/or technology – more likely a combination of all three- precipitate a collapse of asset values, stranding these assets in the portfolios of the world’s major financial institutions. We cannot even estimate the range of financial instruments that might be affected,</p>
<p>I chair the <a href="http://www.aodproject.net/">Asset Owners’ Disclosure Project (AODP)</a> that surveys, rates and ranks the world’s largest asset owners - the top 500 pension and super funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, and some foundations and endowment funds, with assets totalling some US$38 trillion - on their management of climate risk.</p>
<p>The focus of our surveys is threefold – asset owners are assessed on their engagement; on the effectiveness of their measuring, monitoring and managing of climate change risks within their portfolios: and on the extent of any low-carbon investments held.</p>
<p><a href="http://climateinstitute.org.au/articles/media-releases/index-shows-that-large-investors-are-increasingly-recognising-and-taking-action-on-climate-change-risk-australia-ranked-third.html">The results of our most recent survey</a> suggest that the big investors are beginning to take climate risk seriously. But, overall, the results reveal a significant lack of a sense of urgency and preparedness that is most disturbing.</p>
<p>While it is encouraging that 31 leaders are rated A and above (an increase of 29%); and the most significant increase is a 52% rise in asset owners rated CCC-C, indicating many more are acknowledging and more importantly taking action on managing climate risk in their portfolios; and the D group has shrunk by 18%; still nearly half the index remains X rated, with no evidence that they are taking any action at all.</p>
<p>There were only 12 AAA-rated funds – those considered most successful in managing climate change risk in their portfolios, up from 9 last year. Three Australian superannuation funds were rated AAA, up from two last year. Local Government Super, rated second worldwide, was joined by Australian Super and First State Super (which rose from an “A” rating in 2015), which gives us the biggest number of top-rated asset owners.</p>
<p>Australian funds also perform relatively well in aggregate ranking third only to Sweden and Norway on mean average ratings, but remain a mixed bag. And so they should since we are exposed in a way that few other countries are to the physical and transitional impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>At the bottom end of the scale, IOOF Pension Scheme was the only Australian fund to receive an X rating. Four Australian funds moved from D last year to BBB this year.</p>
<p>While AODP has been attempting to focus debate on climate financial risks for some 6-7 years now, it has been most encouraging to see the Bank of England’s Mark Carney, and the G20’s Financial Stability Board, recently lift the profile of, and emphasise the urgency of, this issue, especially with the establishment of the Bloomberg Task Force on disclosure.</p>
<p>However, our survey results would suggest that few are acting on the warnings they have issued, particularly that climate action could leave fossil fuel investments as worthless stranded assets, and 246 of the top 500 investors with some US$14.1 trillion in funds are ignoring climate risk completely. Thus many of our longest term investors are taking the same bet on short term markets that they did in 2006.</p>
<p>Pension and superannuation funds and insurers that ignore climate change risks are gambling with the savings and financial security of hundreds of millions of people around the world and risking another financial crisis.</p>
<p>Apart from any other considerations, the directors and trustees of these institutions are breaching their longer-term fiduciary responsibilities, for example, in pension and superannuation funds, to manage these investments so as to maximize the benefits to their members over their working lives.</p>
<p>To be clear, the risks they running, both individually and collectively, are multiples of the risks that were run in the recent sub-prime based GFC.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58721/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<h4 class="border">Disclosure</h4><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Hewson is chair of the Asset Owners Disclosure Project, and was federal leader of the Liberal Party from 1990 to 1994.</span></em></p>This risk of climate-exposed investments dwarfs that of the sub-prime crisis.John Hewson, Professor and Chair, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/541752016-02-04T05:14:52Z2016-02-04T05:14:52ZCSIRO cuts to climate science are against the public good<p>CSIRO (the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) is facing <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-will-be-all-gone-as-csiro-swings-jobs-axe-scientists-say-20160203-gml7jy.html">another round of job losses</a> to basic public research, with the news that the organisation is making deep staffing cuts to areas such as <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/OandA">Oceans and Atmosphere</a> and <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/LWF">Land and Water</a>. Internally, there are signals that Oceans and Atmosphere will be <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-04/climate-science-on-chopping-block-as-csiro-braces-for-shake-up/7139224">cut substantially</a>, amid 350 job losses over two years across the organisation.</p>
<p>In a letter to staff, CSIRO chief executive Larry Marshall said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>CSIRO pioneered climate research … But we cannot rest on our laurels as that is the path to mediocrity. Our climate models are among the best in the world and our measurements honed those models to prove global climate change. That question has been answered, and the new question is what do we do about it, and how can we find solutions for the climate we will be living with?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This letter reveals a lack of insight about what climate models are for and how they can be used. Their job was not to “prove” that the climate was likely to change and that we had to respond. Their main role is to understand how the climate system works and then to use that knowledge to manage risk, make decisions and improve productivity.</p>
<p>Of course the question of whether humans are changing the climate has been unequivocally answered in the affirmative. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty more questions to answer. After the federal government was so widely criticised under Tony Abbott for frequently <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/un-official-talking-through-her-hat-on-bushfires-and-climate-change-says-tony-abbott-20131023-2w0mz.html">calling climate science into question</a>, it is ironic now to make those same climatologists redundant on the basis that their work is done and dusted.</p>
<h2>Expect the unexpected</h2>
<p>One thing we know about climate change is that the unexpected will occur and while we try to minimise that through better science, at times we will be surprised. </p>
<p>So how do we make sure we do better next time? Recent examples of useful outputs from the CSIRO climate research program include:</p>
<p>The floods of 2011 were more severe than we expected they might be, following on the heels of a record-breaking drought. Both events contained a climate change signal. <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2013/Reading-the-Indian-Ocean-more-drought-and-bushfires-ahead">Groundbreaking research</a> from Wenju Cai and his colleagues at CSIRO have given us a much better idea of how the Pacific and Indian Oceans combine under climate change to intensify extreme events.</p>
<p>Fire danger in southeastern Australia is higher than <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/a48432a0-8d65-4074-8dab-25e989ab0f46/files/ld24climatechangeimpactsonfireweather.pdf">projected a decade ago</a> for <a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-and-climate-change-dont-expect-a-smooth-ride-19391">2030 to 2050</a>. Now we need to understand why the fire danger is higher than expected and where it might lead, especially if climate will change the way vegetation responds to fire.</p>
<p>CSIRO research has highlighted the role of the <a href="http://www.cmar.csiro.au/research/co2.html">Southern Ocean as a carbon sink</a>, and in combining with other oceans to influence our weather, not least its substantial role in producing the rainfall that sustains <a href="http://www.managingclimate.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/MCV00007-Teleconnections_FinalReport.pdf">production in the wheat belt</a>.</p>
<p>CSIRO recently provided a <a href="http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/">comprehensive set of projections</a> of Australia’s future climate based on the latest climate modelling and related science, tailored for a broad range of uses. </p>
<p>CSIRO has long been a global leader in projecting climate at the regional scale and presenting the information in a form that suits decision makers, and thus Australia has been very well served in this vital input into national adaptation and mitigation planning.</p>
<p>There is little doubt that the funds invested in climate research to date, not to mention land and water research, have been returned many times over in higher production, avoided costs and healthier people and environments. </p>
<p>Australian climate research has a global reputation for punching above its weight. To think that it can be cut and to expect that Australia would be better off for it, shows a radical misunderstanding of what public good research is, and what it can do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54175/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Jones was employed by CSIRO as a climate researcher between 1996 and 2009.</span></em></p>CSIRO’s climate science has contributed a number of important, and unexpected, findings.Roger Jones, Professorial Research Fellow, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/541702016-02-04T04:16:50Z2016-02-04T04:16:50ZCSIRO is poised to slash climate research jobs – experts react<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110264/original/image-20160204-3020-1rpo9r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C43%2C2589%2C1642&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A reported 350 jobs will be cut from CSIRO's staff.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ACSIRO_ScienceImage_2854_CSIRO_headquarters.jpg">David McClenaghan/CSIRO/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>CSIRO is set to cut dozens of jobs from its climate research units, as part of a wider series of job losses. </p>
<p>In a message to staff, chief executive Larry Marshall said that the question of human-induced climate change has largely been answered, and outlined a list of new priorities for the agency, including health, technology, and “big data” research fields such as radioastronomy.</p>
<p>“Our climate models are among the best in the world and our measurements honed those models to prove global climate change. That question has been answered, and the new question is what do we do about it, and how can we find solutions for the climate we will be living with?” he said.</p>
<p>A reported <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-will-be-all-gone-as-csiro-swings-jobs-axe-scientists-say-20160203-gml7jy.html">110 jobs could be lost in climate research</a>, among a total of 350 job losses from CSIRO’s staff of 4,832 full-time positions.</p>
<p>Below, experts react to the news.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Neville Nicholls, Professor Emeritus, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University</strong></p>
<p>For 30 years Australia has punched above its weight in international climate policy negotiations because the rest of the world recognised that our government was provided with high-quality, unbiased climate science by the Bureau of Meteorology and (especially) CSIRO. The crippling of CSIRO climate research means that from henceforth the world will view our future governments as captive to either left-wing activists or right-wing ideologues, unconstrained by science. </p>
<p>This decision cedes our place at the big table with the adults discussing what to do about climate change. From today we join the minnows on the little table on the veranda, waiting to be told what we will have to do by the grown-up countries that still have access to high-quality climate science.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Kevin Walsh, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne</strong></p>
<p>The proposed cuts to climate science expertise at CSIRO are disturbing, at a time when climate change is becoming more important to Australia and to the world, not less important. It is very naïve to expect that climate science expertise can be substantially reduced in Australia and then expect that reduction to have no effect on our ability to understand and adapt to the potential impacts of climate change in this country. </p>
<p>Nor will our friends in the Northern Hemisphere pick up the slack for us: they have climate problems of their own. Australia’s unusual climate has always demanded that we pay particular attention to developing and nurturing our own expertise in climate science, a decades-long effort that now may be abandoned.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, DECRA Research Fellow, Climate Change Research Centre, The University of New South Wales</strong></p>
<p>The latest round of job cuts from CSIRO is nothing short of appalling. The climate research work conducted by CSIRO has been pioneering and of global standard. While we know that the climate is changing because of human activity, we have not simply “answered” that question after the Paris agreement - many more questions remain. </p>
<p>Like other scientific fields – such as biology, chemistry and medicine – continual research is required to continually improve our methods, understanding and knowledge. Research in any field does not and cannot stop after an apparent question has been answered. </p>
<p>In terms of climate science, much more research needs to be done on furthering our understanding of these changes, monitoring the climate as it does change, and making our climate and weather models more efficient and improving their capabilities. Much of this work was undertaken by CSIRO, and so now a big hole will be left. </p>
<p>If we want to properly safeguard our country from climate change, we require ongoing fundamental climate research – we cannot create innovative and effective solutions towards climate change without it.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Andrew Holmes, President, Australian Academy of Science</strong></p>
<p>Our climate and environmental scientists are some of the best in the world. We wouldn’t stop supporting our elite Olympic athletes just as they’re winning gold medals. Nor should we pull the rug out from under our elite scientists.</p>
<p>Australia is internationally recognised for its expertise and unique position in climate and environmental research. Realistically, there are no other countries in the Southern Hemisphere that are able to do what we do. We have a singular contribution to make towards global and regional climate knowledge, and with this role comes a great responsibility to the global community.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Ian Lowe, Emeritus Professor of Science, Technology and Society, Griffith University</strong></p>
<p>It is always disappointing when science is cut back, especially when we need to be more innovative to overcome the economic problem of falling commodity prices. It is particularly bad when the cuts are in such areas as Oceans & Atmosphere, Land & Water and Manufacturing, as these are critical to our chances of a sustainable future. </p>
<p>More worrying than the cuts is the language used by the new chief executive. There won’t be scientists sacked, there will be “reductions in headcount”! And these aren’t research areas, they are “business units”, headed not by top scientists but “business leaders”. The cuts are “something that we must do to renew our business”, according to the CEO. The language reveals that the government is trying to sabotage our public science body and turn it into a consulting business.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Clive Hamilton, Professor of Public Ethics, Charles Sturt University</strong></p>
<p>CSIRO climate scientists are world-class and are researching the most decisive factor that will influence the future of the world. To slash their numbers at a time when the urgency of understanding and responding to climate change has never been greater suggests that the government does not want to hear the facts.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Nerilie Abram, Associate Professor, Australian National University</strong></p>
<p>The notion that somehow the question of global climate change has been answered is ludicrous. Yes, it is now absolutely certain that the greenhouse gases we have added to the atmosphere are causing Earth’s climate to warm, but that big-picture knowledge does not allow us to predict and prepare for the many ways in which climate changes are going to impact on the safety and prosperity of Australia in the future. To not invest in understanding this enormous problem will cripple this country’s ability to effectively respond to the many challenges facing us as the Earth’s climate continues to warm.</p>
<p>Climate models, including Australia’s ACCESS model developed by CSIRO researchers, have undoubtedly played an important role in proving the physical theory that greenhouse gases are causing Earth’s climate to warm. But one aspect where models consistently show we still have much to learn about exactly how the pieces of the climate jigsaw puzzle fit together is in their ability to accurately represent the Southern Hemisphere. Gutting Australia’s capabilities in climate science will severely hinder momentum in solving this and many other unanswered questions that will directly impact Australia’s future prosperity and security.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Steve Sherwood, ARC Laureate Fellow and Director, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales</strong></p>
<p>Larry Marshall surely has a point about rejuvenating organisations and solving new challenges, but I worry about his statement that there is no further need after the Paris climate summit to understand climate change since we now know it is real. Effective action requires detailed understanding. For example, Marshall speaks of contributing to the proposed agricultural development of the Northern Territory, but we don’t know for how much longer this region will still support agriculture or even human habitation as the Earth keeps warming, nor how much drying (if any) Australia’s existing agricultural regions will experience. The groups that would help provide answers are the ones he says we don’t need any more.</p>
<p><em>Comments compiled with the <a href="http://www.smc.org.au/">Australian Science Media Centre</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clive Hamilton is a member of the Climate Change Authority. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Lowe is a past president of the Australian Conservation Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Walsh receives funding from numerous Australian sources, including both government and private industry.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neville Nicholls has received funding, in the past, for climate research from various government research funding agencies. He researches the nature, causes, impacts and predictability of natural and human-caused climate variations and change. He was a research scientist at the Bureau of Meteorology 1971-2005, where he initiated and led efforts to develop high-quality historical climate data sets (which involved removing biases caused by changes in instrumentation, location and exposure) and to make these data freely available.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Sherwood receives research funding from the Australian Research Council, the New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, and the federal Department of the Environment.</span></em></p>CSIRO is set to cut dozens of jobs from its climate research units, as part of a wider series of job losses to be formally announced today.Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Research Fellow, UNSW SydneyClive Hamilton, Professor of Public Ethics, Centre For Applied Philosophy & Public Ethics (CAPPE), Charles Sturt UniversityIan Lowe, Emeritus Professor, School of Science, Griffith UniversityKevin Walsh, Reader, School of Earth Sciences, The University of MelbourneNeville Nicholls, Professor emeritus, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash UniversitySteven Sherwood, Director, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/539822016-02-02T05:37:30Z2016-02-02T05:37:30ZThe weather bureau might be underestimating Australian warming: here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109900/original/image-20160202-32257-19lvg1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=943%2C97%2C3158%2C2649&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's all a matter of perspective. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Australia image from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former prime minister’s business advisor Maurice Newman fired <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/australian-bureau-of-meteorology-needs-to-open-records-to-audit/news-story/64dee9b2edb78bd8477c620775ad3eb7">another attack</a> at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology on Monday, arguing in The Australian that the weather bureau needs to be investigated for fiddling with the climate data that show Australia is getting warmer. </p>
<p>Technically known as “homogenisation”, the practice of removing biases from historical climate data has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-the-bureau-of-meteorology-is-not-fiddling-its-weather-data-31009">well defended</a>. In fact, you can <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-scientists-adjust-temperature-records-and-how-you-can-too-36825">do it yourself</a>. </p>
<p>In his latest salvo, Newman claims that estimates of surface temperature trends by weather bureaus “diverge increasingly with satellite and radiosonde datasets”, and thus call into question the “integrity” of the surface data and the processing of those data.</p>
<p>This is a very easy claim to check, and interestingly it shows the weather bureau might actually be <em>underestimating</em> warming.</p>
<h2>Surface v satellite</h2>
<p>You can find <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/">yearly average Australian temperatures</a> at the Bureau of Meteorology. I have plotted the mean annual temperature for Australia, expressed as difference from the 1979-2015 average, in the graph below. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109892/original/image-20160201-32222-1b5jxqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109892/original/image-20160201-32222-1b5jxqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109892/original/image-20160201-32222-1b5jxqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109892/original/image-20160201-32222-1b5jxqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109892/original/image-20160201-32222-1b5jxqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109892/original/image-20160201-32222-1b5jxqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109892/original/image-20160201-32222-1b5jxqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109892/original/image-20160201-32222-1b5jxqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite data show a stronger warming trend.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neville Nicholls</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I have only plotted the data since 1979, since that is the first year for which satellite estimates of temperatures are available. The Bureau estimates of average annual Australian temperature for each year are shown as the thin blue line. The linear trend is shown as a thick blue line.</p>
<p>The satellite data for the temperature of the lower atmosphere, averaged across Australia, are available from the <a href="http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta4.txt">scientists at the University of Alabama</a> at Huntsville. I have also plotted these data in the graph below (as a thin red line).</p>
<p>These are the latest version of the satellite data (version 6.0). As with the surface data, I have plotted the satellite data as differences from their 1979-2015 average. The linear trend of the satellite estimates of temperature over Australia is shown as a thick red line.</p>
<p>You can see immediately that the two graphs vary up and down quite similarly, but that the two graphs are indeed diverging. This is because the satellite estimates of Australian temperature show much stronger warming than do the surface temperatures measured by thermometers by the Bureau. </p>
<p>The Bureau data show warming at a rate of about 1.3°C per century, over the period 1979 to 2015. The satellite data reveal a warming rate of about 2.4°C per century over the same period.</p>
<h2>Why the difference?</h2>
<p>It is not surprising that the Bureau’s surface data and the satellite data are not identical. They measure two different things, and use very different data to do it. </p>
<p>The Bureau’s data are from thermometers at the surface. These data are adjusted to take into account possible sources of bias, such as the urban heat island effect or changes in the location of the thermometers. </p>
<p>The satellite data are from remote observations of radiation from the lower layers of the atmosphere, observed by a small number of satellites. These data have been adjusted for changes between satellites, changes in instrumentation, and even changes in the time of observation. (You can read a discussion of these adjustments <a href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/04/version-6-0-of-the-uah-temperature-dataset-released-new-lt-trend-0-11-cdecade">here</a>.)</p>
<p>But despite all these adjustments (to the satellite data and to the surface data), the two estimates of temperature averaged across Australia show quite similar variations between years, and both show substantial warming over the period for which we have satellite estimates. </p>
<p>But the stronger warming trend in the satellite data suggests that the Bureau, if anything, is underestimating the rate at which Australia is warming.</p>
<p>However, I suspect that the stronger warming shown by the satellite data in the graph above is incorrect.</p>
<p>In the graph below I’ve used a slightly <a href="http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt">older version</a> of the satellite data still available from the University of Alabama. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109893/original/image-20160201-32240-18qwlhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109893/original/image-20160201-32240-18qwlhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109893/original/image-20160201-32240-18qwlhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109893/original/image-20160201-32240-18qwlhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109893/original/image-20160201-32240-18qwlhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109893/original/image-20160201-32240-18qwlhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109893/original/image-20160201-32240-18qwlhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109893/original/image-20160201-32240-18qwlhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Older satellite data are more similar to surface measurements.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neville Nicholls</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using the older version of the satellite data (that has somewhat different adjustments made by the University of Alabama scientists), the similarity with the Bureau’s estimates of Australian average temperature is even more striking. </p>
<p>And the satellite data show a warming trend much closer to the Bureau’s estimate (although the satellite data still exhibit slightly more warming over Australia than do the Bureau’s surface measurements).</p>
<p>But whichever version of the satellite data we use, there is no evidence from the satellite data that the Bureau is overestimating the rate of warming, and there is some reason to believe, if we were to trust the satellite data, that Australia may even be warming (slightly) faster than the Bureau’s data indicate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53982/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neville Nicholls has received funding, in the past, for climate research from various government research funding agencies. He researches the nature, causes, impacts and predictability of natural and human-caused climate variations and change. He was a research scientist at the Bureau of Meteorology 1971-2005, where he initiated and led efforts to develop high-quality historical climate data sets (which involved removing biases caused by changes in instrumentation, location and exposure) and to make these data freely available. </span></em></p>Former PM’s business advisor Maurice Newman recently claimed that satellite temperature data tell a different story to data collected on the ground. He’s right - but that’s how it’s meant to be.Neville Nicholls, Professor emeritus, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/459672015-08-12T09:58:14Z2015-08-12T09:58:14ZThree steps to save Britain’s butterflies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91450/original/image-20150811-11077-1bkqyiq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The peacock butterfly, found in Europe and temperate Asia</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&source=imgres&cd=&ved=0CAYQjBwwAGoVChMIg-WDy-egxwIVhdYaCh3EqgST&url=https%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F4%2F44%2FInachis_io_Lill-Jansskogen.JPG&ei=zszJVYPGOoWta8TVkpgJ&psig=AFQjCNHPMMyUsoqGTu12_58yrJUfuOTb9g&ust=1439374927122190">Charles J Parker</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>British populations of butterflies, including some of the most familiar countryside species, will begin disappearing within decades unless we take action. This is the alarming conclusion of new <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v399/n6736/abs/399579a0.html">research</a> published in <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/index.html">Nature Climate Change</a> by a group of British scientists. </p>
<p>Butterflies are naturally sun-loving creatures, and with the UK sat on the northern edge of many species’ ranges, previous <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v414/n6859/abs/414065a0.html">studies</a> have forecast possible benefits to UK populations from a warming climate. However, as the climate changes, extreme weather events including droughts are expected to become <a href="http://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-is-making-californias-epic-drought-worse-40030">more common</a>. Droughts can be a problem for butterflies, especially if they harm the plants upon which caterpillars rely for food. With less food around, populations can crash, and may take several years to recover to pre-drought levels.</p>
<p>The new study used models to predict the frequency of droughts like <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/pn071.pdf">that of 1995</a> under different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, and examined factors affecting the likelihood and speed of recovery for populations of six species of butterflies that experienced population collapses after the 1995 drought. </p>
<p>While droughts as severe as 1995 have previously only occurred as little as once in 200 years, allowing plenty of time for butterfly populations to recover, the study found that they may become far more frequent. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-011-0149-y">at current rates</a>, they might even occur on average once every 1.29 years (effectively every summer).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91452/original/image-20150811-11059-h9rlvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91452/original/image-20150811-11059-h9rlvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91452/original/image-20150811-11059-h9rlvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91452/original/image-20150811-11059-h9rlvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91452/original/image-20150811-11059-h9rlvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91452/original/image-20150811-11059-h9rlvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91452/original/image-20150811-11059-h9rlvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91452/original/image-20150811-11059-h9rlvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The red admiral is one of the UK’s most common butterflies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Red_Admiral_7330c.jpg">Kenneth Dwain Harrelson</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Under “business as usual” scenarios, the research forecasts the widespread extinction of local colonies of butterflies as soon as 2050. So, what can be done to conserve our butterflies? Here is my simple, three-step guide:</p>
<h2>Step 1: stop global warming in its tracks</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91457/original/image-20150811-14995-ul22tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91457/original/image-20150811-14995-ul22tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91457/original/image-20150811-14995-ul22tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91457/original/image-20150811-14995-ul22tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91457/original/image-20150811-14995-ul22tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91457/original/image-20150811-14995-ul22tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91457/original/image-20150811-14995-ul22tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91457/original/image-20150811-14995-ul22tu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Butterflies don’t have to be colourful.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ringlet#/media/File:Aphantopus_hyperantus_I.jpg">Soebe</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Clearly, reducing the impacts of climate change will be important. Delegates from around the globe will meet in <a href="http://theconversation.com/paris-2015-climate-summit-countries-targets-beyond-2020-38427">Paris later this year</a> for the 2015 UN <a href="http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en">Climate Change Conference</a>, hoping to reach the first deal on reducing emissions since Kyoto 1992. Under the study’s best case scenario for emissions, 1995-like droughts might occur only every six to seven years, giving butterfly populations much more opportunity to recover in between.</p>
<h2>Step 2: protect butterfly habitats</h2>
<p>Ensuring the availability of suitable habitats for butterflies can also make a big contribution. The researchers found butterfly populations were more likely to persist through droughts and recovered more rapidly if situated in areas with larger, less fragmented patches of semi-natural habitat, such as grassland. Larger areas are likely to contain more abundant and diverse food-plants, helping more species of butterfly, and can also better resist edge effects associated with drought, such as moisture loss from woodland.</p>
<p>Highly fragmented habitats have more edge relative to their area, and therefore experience more severe <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21236953">edge effects</a>. Well connected habitats, through which butterflies can easily mingle and locate breeding sites, could add decades on to the survival of certain populations as the climate warms. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91494/original/image-20150811-11059-1jk8zs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91494/original/image-20150811-11059-1jk8zs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91494/original/image-20150811-11059-1jk8zs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91494/original/image-20150811-11059-1jk8zs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91494/original/image-20150811-11059-1jk8zs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91494/original/image-20150811-11059-1jk8zs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91494/original/image-20150811-11059-1jk8zs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Buddleia, also known as the butterfly bush, is one of the UK’s best plants for encouraging butterflies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ndrwfgg/237162987/">Andy Fogg</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Step 3: create more butterfly-friendly gardens</h2>
<p>While large-scale habitat management programmes, such as the establishment of nature reserves, are an important means to preserve semi-natural habitat, the restoration of connectivity is where butterfly enthusiasts can help at home. </p>
<p>According to Richard Fox from the charity <a href="http://butterfly-conservation.org/">Butterfly Conservation</a>, many drought-prone species can be encouraged to breed in gardens by leaving grass to grow long. “You don’t have to let your prize lawn go to rack and ruin, you can just leave a strip along the fence”, Fox told me me. Depending on how much is left, this could provide breeding habitat for species including the speckled wood, ringlet, meadow brown and large skipper.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91427/original/image-20150811-11062-1xnrcck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91427/original/image-20150811-11062-1xnrcck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91427/original/image-20150811-11062-1xnrcck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91427/original/image-20150811-11062-1xnrcck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91427/original/image-20150811-11062-1xnrcck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91427/original/image-20150811-11062-1xnrcck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91427/original/image-20150811-11062-1xnrcck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91427/original/image-20150811-11062-1xnrcck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A female speckled wood butterfly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speckled_wood_(butterfly)#/media/File:Speckled_wood_(Pararge_aegeria)_female_3.jpg">Charles J Sharp</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, other species can be helped by choosing garden flowers with care, or letting them choose themselves. “<a href="http://www.ukbutterflies.co.uk/species.php?species=brassicae">Large</a> and <a href="http://www.ukbutterflies.co.uk/species.php?species=rapae">small white</a> will breed on Nasturtiums and love to nectar on flowers like buddleia and perennial wallflower,” advises Fox, while “green-veined white caterpillars can feed on lots of weeds, so not being too tidy can help”. If you have a garden, why not plant some <a href="https://www.rhs.org.uk/advice/pdfs/plants-for-butterflies">butterfly-friendly plants</a> of your own? </p>
<p>So while butterfly lovers will be among those waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the Paris summit, they may also be able to help closer to home. Habitat availability will be vital to the survival of butterflies when drought strikes, and by providing such refuges in back gardens anybody can help them survive and flourish.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Callum Macgregor is funded by an Industrial CASE studentship from the Natural Environment Research Council, with Butterfly Conservation as the CASE partner (Grant ID: NE/K007394/1).</span></em></p>Climate change means droughts will become more frequent, and butterflies will be particularly affected.Callum Macgregor, PhD student in Ecology, University of HullLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/428542015-07-22T10:25:43Z2015-07-22T10:25:43ZScientist at work: mathematician collects ocean and glacier data in the field to make climate models in the lab<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89196/original/image-20150721-24301-3h9rf7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gathering data at the calving front of the Ilulissat Glacier, Greenland</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Denise Holland</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Curious passersby press their faces up to my lab’s window in lower Manhattan as our rotating table swings into action.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88884/original/image-20150717-21027-sngkj5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88884/original/image-20150717-21027-sngkj5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88884/original/image-20150717-21027-sngkj5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88884/original/image-20150717-21027-sngkj5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88884/original/image-20150717-21027-sngkj5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88884/original/image-20150717-21027-sngkj5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88884/original/image-20150717-21027-sngkj5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author at his NYU New York Environmental Fluid Dynamics Lab, street level.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Denise Holland</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“What are you doing?” someone mimes.</p>
<p>I point to our video wall, which explains our work. Here in our geophysical fluids lab at New York University, we study the basic principles of how the Earth’s fluids behave. Out in the field, in Greenland and Antarctica, we gather data that we use to build ever more accurate computer models. </p>
<p>My research focuses on global sea level change. If the main ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica even partially disintegrate, the consequences for society are immense – they hold about 70 meters of potential sea level rise. Even a relatively modest amount of disintegration would put places like coastal Florida, New York City or Abu Dhabi partially underwater. In fact, we’ve established a global sea level <a href="http://nyuad.nyu.edu/en/research/nyuad-institute/institute-research/cslc.html">research center</a> at NYU Abu Dhabi. The goal of all our activities is to gain better knowledge of how ice sheets and oceans interact. To tease apart the puzzle, we need to travel to where the ice is and collect data.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89223/original/image-20150721-24266-8xol56.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89223/original/image-20150721-24266-8xol56.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89223/original/image-20150721-24266-8xol56.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89223/original/image-20150721-24266-8xol56.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89223/original/image-20150721-24266-8xol56.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89223/original/image-20150721-24266-8xol56.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89223/original/image-20150721-24266-8xol56.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Holland at Ilulissat Fjord autonomous weather station, Greenland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Denise Holland, NYU</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So that’s what we do. We travel many thousands of miles from our NYU lab toward both the North and South poles so we can see what’s happening on the glacier and in the ocean off Greenland and Antarctica. It’s a long journey via the US Air National Guard ski-equipped Hercules plane, twin otters and helicopters. Once we finally get there, our goal is to measure the ocean water’s properties – including temperature and salinity – from as close to the calving front as possible. That’s the edge of the ice sheet, where icebergs are breaking off from the glacier front and there are numerous crevasses. Obviously it’s a dangerous place to be doing science, so we have to get creative to figure out how to gather the data.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88707/original/image-20150716-5089-uci0j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88707/original/image-20150716-5089-uci0j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88707/original/image-20150716-5089-uci0j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88707/original/image-20150716-5089-uci0j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88707/original/image-20150716-5089-uci0j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88707/original/image-20150716-5089-uci0j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88707/original/image-20150716-5089-uci0j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88707/original/image-20150716-5089-uci0j0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the many ringed seals we’ve tagged in the ocean off Greenland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">A Asvid-Rosing</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One of those ways is by attaching a small instrument to the backs of the local seals that frequent the fjords of Greenland. Working with our colleagues at the <a href="http://www.natur.gl/en/">Greenland Institute of Natural Resources</a>, we tag seals and release them a few minutes later. The tag weighs less than a pound and is attached with a nontoxic glue to the seal’s coat so it doesn’t have a negative effect on its daily life.</p>
<p>The seals give us many more measurements than we can get using traditional methods, such as ship-based CTD (conductivity, temperature and depth) or helicopter-based CTD probes. In addition, they’re swimming and diving in areas that are sometimes inaccessible to us – and sending back data we couldn’t otherwise get. Every time the seal surfaces, the device makes a satellite phone call to our rooftop weather station at NYU and downloads <a href="http://efdl_ems.cims.nyu.edu/srdl_seals/data/seal_14-13.html">CTD data</a>. We usually tag six seals each season. The device drops off when the seal molts, or sheds its coat, about a year later. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89221/original/image-20150721-24301-175w6ek.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89221/original/image-20150721-24301-175w6ek.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89221/original/image-20150721-24301-175w6ek.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89221/original/image-20150721-24301-175w6ek.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89221/original/image-20150721-24301-175w6ek.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89221/original/image-20150721-24301-175w6ek.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89221/original/image-20150721-24301-175w6ek.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Holland with an ocean glider, which swims through the ocean water column and provides conductivity, temperature and depth data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Denise Holland, NYU</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We’ve deployed many other instruments to help monitor the oceans around Greenland and Antarctica, including ocean sea floor moorings and ocean gliders. These devices record ocean properties on the sea floor and through the water column throughout the year. They’re challenging to deploy and recover because of the many icebergs in the area. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89222/original/image-20150721-24304-x58w2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89222/original/image-20150721-24304-x58w2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89222/original/image-20150721-24304-x58w2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89222/original/image-20150721-24304-x58w2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89222/original/image-20150721-24304-x58w2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89222/original/image-20150721-24304-x58w2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89222/original/image-20150721-24304-x58w2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The red flag atop this mooring deployed to the sea floor helps Holland locate the equipment amid heavy sea ice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Denise Holland, NYU</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also monitor glacier fronts using seismic arrays and radars, both on land. The information gathered from these devices tells us where the glacier is breaking and how fast it’s going when calving happens. In our NYU lab, we monitor the Antarctic and Greenland fjords from our computers, thanks to the autonomous weather stations and cameras we’ve deployed. Over the years, we’ve built up a nice complement of instruments on land and at sea, and now we’re starting to see some excellent data sets coming together. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88708/original/image-20150716-5070-8y7nr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88708/original/image-20150716-5070-8y7nr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88708/original/image-20150716-5070-8y7nr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88708/original/image-20150716-5070-8y7nr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88708/original/image-20150716-5070-8y7nr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88708/original/image-20150716-5070-8y7nr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88708/original/image-20150716-5070-8y7nr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88708/original/image-20150716-5070-8y7nr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A remotely transmitted last view of the spring sun from Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica until it rises again in six months.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Holland</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But gathering all these data is just part of the process. Once we’re back home, our first step is always basic analysis to see if we can spot any trends in the data we’ve collected. For instance, is the ocean water warming or cooling? In fact, we detected a warming event in our data from West Greenland in the late 1990s which helped explain glacier <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo316">retreat and speed-up</a> at that time.</p>
<p>Next, we use the data to help develop a computer model of the glacier and ocean interaction. When the model simulations look like real world observations, then we have confidence that the computer models are fairly accurately simulating reality. This ultimately puts us on a path to projecting global sea level rise. </p>
<p>This summer, just as we were finishing our week-long Greenland field expedition, we had a <a href="https://news.vice.com/article/watch-a-piece-of-ice-larger-than-two-empire-state-buildings-break-off-a-glacier-in-greenland">major calving event</a>, and the entire area in front of the glacier was ice-free. That doesn’t happen often, and it’s never happened while we’ve been there. Now we’re trying to work with local townspeople who can fly out and take measurements in the brief time the area is ice-free for us – measurements have never been taken that close to the calving front.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88711/original/image-20150716-5108-9g7ns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88711/original/image-20150716-5108-9g7ns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88711/original/image-20150716-5108-9g7ns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88711/original/image-20150716-5108-9g7ns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88711/original/image-20150716-5108-9g7ns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88711/original/image-20150716-5108-9g7ns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88711/original/image-20150716-5108-9g7ns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88711/original/image-20150716-5108-9g7ns1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author in the field.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Denise Holland</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These places are so breathtakingly beautiful, you sometimes have to stop and remind yourself how important it is to study them and understand the processes that are happening. The hope is that our work will help us be able to better adapt and mitigate if and when sea level changes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/42854/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Holland receives funding from NSF.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denise Holland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>To create accurate models that predict how ice sheets and oceans will react to changing climate, modelers need precise current data. One researcher heads to the ends of the earth to collect just that.David Holland, Professor of Mathematics at Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science, New York UniversityDenise Holland, Field and Logistics Coordinator, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/361752015-02-26T11:03:42Z2015-02-26T11:03:42ZLet’s call it: 30 years of above average temperatures means the climate has changed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72963/original/image-20150224-25686-1kbm6td.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's getting hot in here.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/meanmrmustard/3485553717">andrea zeppilli</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you’re younger than 30, you’ve never experienced a month in which the average surface temperature of the Earth was below average. </p>
<p>Each month, the <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov">US National Climatic Data Center</a> calculates Earth’s average surface temperature using temperature measurements that cover the Earth’s surface. Then, another average is calculated for each month of the year for the twentieth century, 1901-2000. For each month, this gives one number representative of the entire century. Subtract this overall 1900s monthly average – which for February is 53.9F (12.1C) – from each individual month’s temperature and you’ve got <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php">the anomaly</a>: that is, the difference from the average.</p>
<p>The last month that was at or below that 1900s average was February 1985. Ronald Reagan had just started his second presidential term and Foreigner had the number one single with “I want to know what love is.”</p>
<p>These temperature observations make it clear the new normal will be systematically rising temperatures, not the stability of the last 100 years. The <a href="http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/faqs.php">traditional definition of climate</a> is the 30-year average of weather. The fact that – once the official records are in for February 2015 – it will have been 30 years since a month was below average is an important measure that the climate has changed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72815/original/image-20150223-32247-14o04jt.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72815/original/image-20150223-32247-14o04jt.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72815/original/image-20150223-32247-14o04jt.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72815/original/image-20150223-32247-14o04jt.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72815/original/image-20150223-32247-14o04jt.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72815/original/image-20150223-32247-14o04jt.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72815/original/image-20150223-32247-14o04jt.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72815/original/image-20150223-32247-14o04jt.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Temperature history for all Februaries from 1880-2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/glob/201402.gif">NCDC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How the Earth warms</h2>
<p>As you can see in the graphic above, ocean temperature doesn’t vary as much as land temperature. This fact is intuitive to many people because they understand that coastal regions don’t experience as extreme highs and lows as the interiors of continents. Since oceans cover the majority of the Earth’s surface, the combined land and ocean graph strongly resembles the graph just for the ocean. Looking at only the ocean plots, you have to go all the way back to February 1976 to find a month below average. (That would be under President Gerald Ford’s watch.) </p>
<p>You can interpret variability over land as the driver of the ups and downs seen in the global graph. There are four years from 1976 onwards when the land was below average; the last time the land temperature was cool enough for the globe to be at or below average was February 1985. The flirtation with below-average temps was tiny – primarily worth noting in the spirit of accurate record keeping. Looking at any of these graphs, it’s obvious that earlier times were cooler and more recent times are warmer. None of the fluctuations over land since 1976 provide evidence contrary to the observation that the Earth is warming.</p>
<p>Some of the most convincing evidence that the Earth is warming is actually found in <a href="http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/">measures</a> of the heat <a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/02/a-fresh-look-at-the-watery-side-of-earths-climate-shows-unabated-planetary-warming">stored in the oceans</a> and the melting of ice. However, we often focus on the surface air temperature. One reason for that is that we feel the surface air temperature; therefore, we have intuition about the importance of hot and cold surface temperatures. Another reason is historical; we have often thought of climate as the average of weather. We’ve been taking temperature observations for weather for a long time; it is a robust and essential observation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72816/original/image-20150223-32244-1x1plkf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72816/original/image-20150223-32244-1x1plkf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72816/original/image-20150223-32244-1x1plkf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72816/original/image-20150223-32244-1x1plkf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72816/original/image-20150223-32244-1x1plkf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72816/original/image-20150223-32244-1x1plkf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72816/original/image-20150223-32244-1x1plkf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72816/original/image-20150223-32244-1x1plkf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Temperature history for every year from 1880-2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/ytd/12/1880-2014">NOAA National Climatic Data Center</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Despite variability, a stable signal</h2>
<p>Choosing one month, February in this instance, perhaps overemphasizes that time in 1985 when we had a below average month. We can get a single yearly average for all the months in an entire year, January-December. If we look at these annual averages, then the ups and downs are reduced. In this case, 1976 emerges as the last year in which the global-average temperature was below the 20th century average of 57.0F (13.9C) – that’s 38 years ago, the year that <a href="http://www.olympic.org/videos/first-perfect-ten-nadia-comaneci">Nadia Comaneci</a> scored her seven perfect 10s at the Montreal Olympics. </p>
<p>I am <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=326">not a fan</a> of tracking month-by-month or even year-by-year averages and arguing over the <a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com//2015/01/21/how-warmest-ever-headlines-and-debates-can-obscure-what-matters-about-climate-change/">statistical minutia of possible records</a>. We live at a time when the Earth is definitively warming. And we know why: predominately, the increase of greenhouse gas warming due to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Under current conditions, we should expect the planet to be warming. What would be more important news would be if we had a year, even a month, that was below average.</p>
<p>The variability we observe in surface temperature comes primarily from understood patterns of weather. Many have heard of El Niño, when the eastern Pacific Ocean is warmer than average. The eastern Pacific is so large that when it is warmer than average, the entire planet is likely to be warmer than average. As we look at averages, 30 years, 10 years, or even one year, these patterns, some years warmer, some cooler, become less prominent. The trend of warming is large enough to mask the variability. The fact that there have been 30 years with no month below the 20th century average is a definitive statement that climate has changed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72966/original/image-20150224-25689-1ah60dx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72966/original/image-20150224-25689-1ah60dx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72966/original/image-20150224-25689-1ah60dx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72966/original/image-20150224-25689-1ah60dx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72966/original/image-20150224-25689-1ah60dx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72966/original/image-20150224-25689-1ah60dx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72966/original/image-20150224-25689-1ah60dx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72966/original/image-20150224-25689-1ah60dx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">To see a cooler Earth any time soon, you’ll need to carve one out of ice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/davesag/529642758/">Kirsten Spry</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The 30-year horizon</h2>
<p>There are other reasons that this 30-year span of time is important. Thirty years is a length of time in which people plan. This includes personal choices – where to live, what job to take, how to plan for retirement. There are institutional choices – building bridges, building factories and power plants, urban flood management. There are resource management questions – assuring water supply for people, ecosystems, energy production and agriculture. There are many questions concerning how to build the fortifications and plan the migrations that sea-level rise will demand. Thirty years is long enough to be convincing that the climate is changing, and short enough that we can conceive, both individually and collectively, what the future might hold.</p>
<p>Finally, 30 years is long enough to educate us. We have 30 years during which we can see what challenges a changing climate brings us. Thirty years that are informing us about the next 30 years, which will be warmer still. This is a temperature record that makes it clear that the new normal will be systematically rising temperatures, not the ups and downs of the last 100 years. </p>
<p>Those who are under 30 years old have not experienced the climate I grew up with. In thirty more years, those born today will also be living in a climate that, by fundamental measures, will be different than the climate of their birth. Future success will rely on understanding that the climate in which we are all now living is changing and will continue to change with accumulating consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36175/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard B Rood receives funding from government and foundation research grants. He writes a climate-change blog for Wunderground.com</span></em></p>If you’re always above average, it’s probably time to redefine what’s normal. The new normal for Earth’s climate is systematically rising temperatures.Richard B. (Ricky) Rood, Professor of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/256842014-04-24T12:01:10Z2014-04-24T12:01:10ZData mashups can help answer the world’s biggest questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46480/original/z8s9wh4v-1397577998.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">We collect climate data. We collect health data. What if we combined the two?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kevinmgill/9555899543/">Kevin</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the world wakes up to the power of data, we need to start working out how to join up all this information. We need to turn it into meaningful findings that will help us to make changes to the way we live. A new technique is emerging as part of this quest – the data mashup. This approach to linking data could help us shed light on phenomena such as the health impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>Data comes in all shapes and sizes. It can record boundless sets of characteristics over different time scales and geographic areas. But this diversity means that individual databases are often created for specific areas, such as health research, and are rarely shared or combined with others.</p>
<p>Yet it is becoming increasingly apparent that by joining these disparate sources of data, academia, governments and businesses may be able to access information that is currently hidden within closed systems. So researchers are now turning to techniques developed by computer scientists in order to access this Aladdin’s cave of information.</p>
<p>The Medical and Environmental Data Mashup Infrastructure (<a href="http://www.ecehh.org/research-projects/medmi/">MEDMI</a>) project is one of the initiatives doing this. We’re hoping to enable research into the links between climate, weather, environment and health. By bringing <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/11/2/1725">databases</a> from each of these areas together and allowing access through one web-based portal, we’re aiming to create a shared resource for medical, environmental, and public health researchers.</p>
<p>The collection of health and environment data over the past 20 years has provided a growing resource of information. It includes detailed monitoring of weather and climate variables like temperature and rainfall and digital health records, among other useful additions.</p>
<p>With this information, you could combine temperature and air pollution data to predict when people with chronic lung disease might have respiratory problems if they go outside. The UK Met Office did this and now provides an <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/health/public/copd">early warning service</a> for patients, their families and healthcare providers. </p>
<p>But joining such varied forms of data presents some significant hurdles. For a start, in many cases we are at the mercy of the way data has been collected historically. Pollen data, for example, traditionally suffers from a lack of resolution. Only a few measurement locations cover the whole of the UK but pollen moves rapidly in the air all over the place. These differences in resolution over time and space make it difficult to identify links with other more finely recorded factors, such as individuals with certain types of skin cancer and radon levels in a <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22081061">particular area</a>.</p>
<p>The huge disparities in data collection are even more apparent when considering other environment and health variables. Take rainfall or cloud cover data for example, which are measured on an hourly basis, at very high resolution, over the whole of the UK.</p>
<p>It might be interesting to combine large scale environmental data with the <a href="http://www.bristol.ac.uk/alspac/">Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children</a>, which followed the pregnancies of 14,000 mothers in the Avon Valley, to see if solar irradiance (a measure of vitamin D levels) exposure is related to the <a href="http://www.hindawi.com/journals/jeph/2012/619381/">development of allergic diseases</a>. But this is difficult to do because the Avon study only collects data every couple of years and the participants predominantly live in a small geographic area.</p>
<h2>Bridging the gaps</h2>
<p>Merging data types ranging from a description of a person’s mental health to measurements of ocean currents, requires some serious head scratching. Fortunately, statistical techniques and methods such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide us with a really good start, and the standardisation of spatial data services by the <a href="http://www.opengeospatial.org">Open Geospatial Consortium</a> has begun to create a common international language between databases. There is also a growing interest from the private sector, with companies like Google dedicating resources to connecting data and enabling access over the web.</p>
<p>Perversely (to health researchers at least), the link between the changing climate and human health has received little scientific attention, particularly when compared to investigating how climate affects the weather and environment. We’re hoping that MEDMI will begin to redress this trend by allowing us to investigate where climate and health data overlap.</p>
<p>For example, we want to identify risk hot spots – places where climate and other environmental factors converge to affect vulnerable populations – early enough to both mitigate the consequences and study these interventions.</p>
<p>The sheer number of partners working on the project highlights the dizzying complexity of any mashup endeavour. And of course there is the veritable minefield of protecting confidential and sensitive health data. The importance of that cannot be overstated.</p>
<p>But scientists like me, already committed to the data mashup cause, aren’t fazed by these challenges. We’re already looking towards a future where these linked databases can be queried in real time.</p>
<p>We’re imagining a world where a regional cold snap can be associated with flu cases and hospital admissions as it happens. That would mean local resources could be quickly and efficiently deployed. We’re hoping that long-term predictions about climate and human health hot spots can help us to plan our cities so that they are more resilient. </p>
<p>Living in a world undergoing rapid environmental change will increasingly require this kind of vision. We’re not there yet, not even close, but just like television on your mobile phone, we may get there sooner than you think.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lora Fleming receives funding from UK Medical Research Council (MRC), UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR), the European Regional Development Fund Programme 2007 to 2013, and the European Social Fund Convergence Programme for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly.</span></em></p>As the world wakes up to the power of data, we need to start working out how to join up all this information. We need to turn it into meaningful findings that will help us to make changes to the way we…Lora Fleming, Director, European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of ExeterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.