tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/colin-barnett-2822/articlesColin Barnett – The Conversation2017-11-30T19:07:03Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/881552017-11-30T19:07:03Z2017-11-30T19:07:03ZShould Colin Barnett leave the WA parliament? Definitely, maybe, not at all<p>Party leaders are critical to their party’s performance, and arguably have become even more so in an age in which voter loyalties have frayed and partisanship is on the wane. </p>
<p>It is for these reasons that a government’s electoral defeat is often the catalyst for vanquished premiers and prime ministers to stand aside from the leadership of their party and to quit the parliament. </p>
<p>This is not a legal or constitutional requirement, nor is it necessarily an expectation held by voters. Rather, it is more akin to an informal rule that is invoked following a government’s defeat so as to clear the path for the incoming leadership team. </p>
<p>The reasons why such a practice exist was recently brought into sharp focus when the former Western Australian premier, Colin Barnett, found himself at the centre of calls from the Liberals’ new leader, <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/liberal-leader-mike-nahan-tells-colin-barnett-to-quit-parliament-ng-b88669114z">Mike Nahan</a>, and some <a href="https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/time-for-barnett-to-move-on-ng-b88447919z">media commentators</a>, to quit the parliament. Barnett <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/former-wa-premier-colin-barnett-tells-liberal-critics-i-wont-leave-ng-b88671839z">rejected</a> these suggestions. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-wa-in-a-landslide-as-one-nation-fails-to-land-a-blow-74062">Labor wins WA in a landslide as One Nation fails to land a blow</a>
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<p>The question of whether a former premier has an obligation to resign depends in part on what one thinks the role of a political representative is, and to whom they owe their allegiance. For those who have sympathy for the partisan model of representation, former leaders should generally quit the parliament if this is what their party asks of them. </p>
<p>However, for those who subscribe to the view that elected representatives have obligations to the wider community (trustee model) or to the constituency that directly elected them (delegate model), then there is a much stronger case to be made for them serving out their full term, regardless of their former status within parliament.</p>
<h2>The partisan model</h2>
<p>The partisan model of representation would suggest that Barnett should quit the parliament, if this is desired by his party, in order to bring renewal within their ranks or help refocus the team following defeat.</p>
<p>This model positions the elected member as agents of the party, who owe a duty to their party because of the support they received and the opportunities that their party provided for them. Elected members are expected to place the party interest ahead of personal interests. </p>
<p>On these grounds, the Liberals have a strong case against Barnett remaining in parliament. </p>
<p>Barnett has not gone quietly into the night. Rather, he has caused the new leadership team embarrassment by arguing that his premiership was hamstrung by an <a href="https://thewest.com.au/business/leadership/colin-barnett-uncut-success-defeat-regrets-and-his-lasting-legacy-ng-b88652856z">under-performing</a> second-term cabinet, some of whom remain in parliament. </p>
<p>Moreover, with the Liberals reduced to 13 members in a 59-seat chamber, and Barnett holding a safe seat, his exit would allow the party to refresh their ranks at a time when they are trying to rebuild.</p>
<h2>Barnett the trustee?</h2>
<p>If we treat Barnett as a trustee, then the logic favours that he should stay in parliament until such time as his conscience moves him to quit. </p>
<p>Under the trustee model, elected members are expected to be guided by their concern for the broader interests of the state. Once elected, the decision about how that member should serve these interests falls to the discretion of the member.</p>
<p>On this basis, Barnett can reasonably argue that he is an experienced legislator who still has much to contribute to the parliament and to the state. </p>
<p>Moreover, the high financial costs and general disruption associated with holding a byelection without proper cause is not advantageous to the people of the Western Australia. </p>
<h2>An elected delegate</h2>
<p>The delegate model requires the elected member to act according to the wishes of those who elected them. Unlike the trustee model, such assessments are not for the MP to make, but only after careful consideration of the views of the electorate. </p>
<p>Based on this model, only the voters in Barnett’s seat of Cottesloe are fit to make any such decision about his future and, arguably, they have already done so when they re-elected him in 2017. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-unrealistic-to-expect-mps-to-follow-the-view-of-the-people-who-elected-them-every-time-87622">It's unrealistic to expect MPs to follow the view of the people who elected them every time</a>
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<p>Barnett’s claims in this regard are strengthened because he was elected on first preference votes <a href="https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2017/electorate/COT/results">(56.67%)</a>, and because he made clear his intention to remain in parliament regardless of the outcome of the election. This would suggest that Barnett’s electorate supported his reelection full in the knowledge of his future intentions. </p>
<p>Thus, in the absence of any actions that would render Barnett unfit or unable to serve under the <a href="https://www.constitutionalcentre.wa.gov.au/ResearchAndSeminarPapers/WesternAustralianConstitution/Pages/Default.aspx">WA Constitution</a>, the logic of the delegate model supports his remaining in parliament. </p>
<h2>The ultimate decision-maker</h2>
<p>In the end, the decision about Barnett’s future in parliament is for him to make. </p>
<p>Neither the people of Cottesloe nor his own party can force him to resign. The Liberals can expel him from the party, but this does not solve the problem because what Barnett has said cannot be unsaid, and he may prove more of a distraction if freed from his partisan bonds. </p>
<p>Yet what this incident, and others similar to it underline, is that any such disagreement over whether former leaders should remain in parliament often boils down to different views about to whom they are ultimately beholden.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88155/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Should defeated party leaders stay in parliament? Former Western Australian premier Colin Barnett is an interesting case in point.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/742322017-03-12T19:19:53Z2017-03-12T19:19:53ZOne Nation’s preference deal in the WA election comes back to bite it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160395/original/image-20170312-19263-d98vyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pauline Hanson after her One Nation party performed worse than expected at the WA election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rebecca Le May</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One Nation thought it could smell sweet electoral success for much of the Western Australian state election campaign. </p>
<p>The party had reason to be confident about its prospects, despite the recent debacle concerning <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/exone-nation-senator-rod-culleton-was-not-eligible-to-have-been-elected-high-court-rules/news-story/b42a76773769d437c17a88bf09710334">Rod Culleton</a>, the former One Nation and later independent senator found ineligible to stand for parliament. </p>
<p>The party’s founder, Pauline Hanson, had resumed the leadership mantle and had emerged as a high-profile deal-maker in the Senate. Hanson used her profile to support her <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/waelection/wa-election-2017-one-nation-leader-pauline-hanson-campaigns-in-wa/news-story/4c08ee3ded58f5c311653fa38d1a6096">“down-to-earth, upfront and honest grassroots”</a> candidates by making frequent visits to the state during the campaign. </p>
<p>Polls had the party as resurgent and on track to win up to 13% of the primary vote.</p>
<p>On the strength of its strong performance in the polls, both major parties were reported to have been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-03/one-nation-preference-deals-both-parties-courting/8239984">jostling</a> for One Nation’s preferences. It was the Liberals that sealed the deal in the end. Liberal leader Colin Barnett was unapologetic, even if <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/wa-premier-colin-barnett-uncomfortable-with-one-nation-deal-but-says-theyre-a-reality/news-story/8a1086b3eb092fc7a9597d5aef9a6829">“uncomfortable”</a>, about the decision. </p>
<p>This deal was significant for One Nation. </p>
<p>The preference pact had the potential to enhance the electoral prospects of One Nation candidates contesting upper house regions.</p>
<p>The deal was also important because it signalled that One Nation was no longer a political pariah. Former Liberal prime minister John Howard defended the preference deal with One Nation on the grounds that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/17/john-howard-backs-liberal-preference-deal-with-one-nation-in-wa">“everyone changes in 16 years”</a>. And high-profile Liberal senator Arthur Sinodinos argued One Nation are <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/arthur-sinodinos-defends-liberal-party-preference-deal-with-pauline-hanson-and-one-nation/news-story/2f6f1cd7a5af4486af55c893e762439b">“a lot more sophisticated”</a>. </p>
<p>But the party’s supposed new-found sophistication was rarely on show during the campaign. </p>
<p>Hanson <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2016/s4630647.htm">applauded</a> Russian President Vladimir Putin for his patriotism and strong-man persona, but paradoxically likened a policy that made eligibility for certain forms of family payments and childcare benefits contingent on parents vaccinating their children as akin to living in a <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/pauline-hanson-praises-vladimir-putin-in-bizarre-abc-interview/news-story/e3a61135bc0d7760c27ac493d127f746">dictatorship</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/lefties-cause-social-ills-hanson-ng-b88407541z">“Bloody lefties”</a> within the education system were denounced as the cause of social problems that were afflicting regional towns. Muslims were accused of having <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/03/06/which-good-one-you-cant-tell-good-muslim-bad-one-hanson">“no respect”</a> for Australia, and making preparations to eventually overthrow Australian governments. </p>
<p>The party struggled to contain its <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-and-labor-on-a-knife-edge-in-wa-while-things-look-up-for-one-nation-20170305-gur50l.html">candidates</a>. Two were disendorsed and two more resigned during the campaign. Four days before polling day, two former high-ranking party officials who were sacked from the party went public with their decision to take legal action against Hanson for age discrimination. </p>
<p>And three days before the election, there were concerns the party’s <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/one-nation-vote-cards-break-election-law-ng-b88408871z">how-to-vote cards</a> were not legally compliant.</p>
<p>In a final blow to an already chaotic campaign, Hanson declared the preference deal it had struck with the Liberals had likely done the party <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-11/wa-election-pauline-hanson-says-liberal-deal-hurt-one-nation/8346160">“damage”</a>. </p>
<h2>What cost the preference deal?</h2>
<p>Certainly the result reveals that One Nation failed to perform as strongly as the early opinion polls had predicted. With 67.25% of the lower house vote counted, One Nation <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/">attracted only 4.74%</a> of primary votes.</p>
<p>What then does this all mean? Was the preference deal a mistake for One Nation? Can a so-called anti-establishment party enter into a preference deal with an establishment party and survive to tell the story? The prevailing opinion is “no”.</p>
<p>However, let’s consider the claims that have been levelled about the preference deal. The main claim is the preference deal was the primary cause of One Nation’s electoral woes. </p>
<p>There is definitely <a href="https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/the-west-wa-state-poll-9march17">polling data</a> which shows many voters were opposed to the deal. What is less clear is if this opposition translated into action at the ballot box. If, for example, we calculate (or average) One Nation’s primary vote according to the actual number of lower house seats it contested, then its primary vote is around 8.26%. </p>
<p>While this figure is well short of the early double-digit polling results tipped for One Nation, it suggests that its support did hold up (and this is in spite of an electoral campaign that was chaotic and ill-disciplined).</p>
<p>The second general claim is the idea that a preference deal for either party under any circumstances is tantamount to electoral suicide. </p>
<p>Again, this argument might be something of a stretch. What appeared to actually blight this agreement was the particular electoral and political dynamics that surrounded it, and not the mere fact of a deal being negotiated between the two parties. </p>
<p>The Liberals struck a preference deal that favoured One Nation over its historical alliance partner, the Nationals. While the Liberals might have been justified by its decision, it ultimately proved very difficult to square with the conservative base more generally. The preference deal made a desperate party appear even more desperate.</p>
<p>One Nation agreed to a preference deal with the Liberals even though it proposed the partial privatisation of the electricity utility, a policy One Nation <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/wa-election-one-nation-vows-not-to-negotiate-on-western-power-privatisation-20170306-gurf4l">rejected</a>. The planned privatisation of the utility was deeply unpopular, opposed by as many as 61% of voters. </p>
<p>In spite of its protestations to the contrary, One Nation had hitched its wagon to one of the most controversial policy issues of the entire campaign.</p>
<p>It could be argued that under different conditions, this preference deal need not have generated as much collateral damage as this one seems to have caused.</p>
<p>Any damage arising from this preference deal to One Nation is likely to prove fleeting. The party is on track to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/results/legislative-council/">win two seats</a> in the Legislative Council, most likely with the assistance of Liberal preferences. </p>
<p>In the end, the real danger for One Nation lies not with who it chooses to enter into preference deals with, but how it manages it internal affairs, and the conduct of its elected members – especially its leader.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74232/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The controversial preference deal with the Liberals, and a disastrous campaign, saw One Nation perform worse than expected in Western Australia.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/740622017-03-11T23:06:33Z2017-03-11T23:06:33ZLabor wins WA in a landslide as One Nation fails to land a blow<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160390/original/image-20170311-19263-d6yd4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former navy lawyer Mark McGowan is set to become the new premier of Western Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Labor has won the 2017 Western Australian election in a landslide, sweeping aside the long-running Barnett government and installing Labor’s Mark McGowan as the state’s 30th premier.</p>
<p>The ABC is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/">predicting</a> Labor will win 40 seats, doubling its current number of seats held and providing it with a clear majority.</p>
<p>The Liberals look to have held only 14 of their 30 seats, while the Nationals appear to have held five of their seven lower house seats. Several seats technically <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/results/list/?selector=indoubt&sort=az">remain in doubt</a>. </p>
<p>Labor’s victory is Perth-based. Thirty-five of the 40 predicted seats it won are based in the metropolitan area. Within the three non-metropolitan regions, Labor has held Kimberley and Albany, and likely picked up only three seats – Bunbury, Collie-Preston (notionally Liberal after the latest redistribution), Murray-Wellington. All, except Kimberley, are in the state’s south-west.</p>
<p>State-wide, the One Nation vote in the Legislative Assembly is only 4.7%. It looks like One Nation could win two seats in the Legislative Council, one in Mining and Pastoral and the other in the south-west. This is below the <a href="http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/wa/2017/03/06/wa-election-one-nation/">results expected</a> prior to Pauline Hanson’s <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/a-chronicle-of-chaos-dogs-pauline-hansons-wa-election-campaign/news-story/8fed8eff5b2bd00b07bb61232a138da1">disastrous trip to WA</a>.</p>
<h2>A drover’s dog type of election?</h2>
<p>This was an election where the vote was driven by dislike of the sitting government, rather than attraction to the opposition.</p>
<p>It’s rare for a party to gain a third term in WA, and the Barnett government has been trailing in the polls for some time. In particular, as the face of his government, Premier Colin Barnett <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/libs-blame-anti-barnett-sentiment-as-labor-surges-ahead-ng-b88409009z">is deeply unpopular</a> across the state.</p>
<p>The election day <a href="https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/the-west-wa-state-poll-9march17">ReachTEL poll of 2,573</a> voters, published in The West Australian, had Labor on a two-party-preferred vote of 54% to 46%. Of those planning to vote Labor, 27.2% said their main reason was that “It’s time for a change of government”, and 16.3% said “I don’t like Colin Barnett”.</p>
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<span class="caption">ReachTEL poll, March 9.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ReachTEL</span></span>
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<h2>Mark McGowan: WA’s new premier</h2>
<p>McGowan will become premier after surviving a somewhat <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-labor-avoids-own-goal-but-what-damage-has-smiths-tilt-at-the-leadership-done-56195">bizarre challenge</a> on his leadership last March by former federal Labor minster Stephen Smith.</p>
<p>McGowan, who has been <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/lifestyle/stm/mark-mcgowan-labor-of-love/news-story/b6278a1017c6bdc271b01e4f263fd590">opposition leader since 2012</a>, has patiently plugged away at the government.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/barnett-government-looks-set-for-defeat-as-one-nation-looms-large-in-wa-election-73838">strained economic circumstances</a> in which WA finds itself, it is difficult to run a campaign full of expensive promises. The most high-profile of Labor’s policies was its declaration that it would not <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/barnett-government-to-announce-sale-of-western-power-20161130-gt0izl.html">sell Western Power</a>, which the government hoped to use to reduce state debt by around A$8 billion.</p>
<p>Labor also campaigned heavily on public transport, which the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-22/wa-govt-pushes-ahead-with-ellenbrook-rapid-bus/8047748">government had failed to deliver</a> on over its last two terms.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.markmcgowan.com.au/METRONET">Metronet rail network plan</a> gained a place in the public imagination during the 2013 campaign. The basics of the plan survived Labor’s defeat at the last state election as it remained popular within the electorate, providing a clear alternative plan to the changing positions of the Barnett government.</p>
<p>Labor cleverly claimed it would <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/malcolm-turnbulls-threat-could-derail-wa-labors-metronet/news-story/dfcb96fb765f11bf02b3b5748f7bcd73">fund Metronet</a> by cancelling the Perth Freight Link, which includes the deeply unpopular Roe 8 extension, and diverting the federal funding from that project to Metronet.</p>
<h2>Colin Barnett’s defeat is a tale of a tin ear</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/barnett-government-looks-set-for-defeat-as-one-nation-looms-large-in-wa-election-73838">The key issues in this election</a> have tended to be economic in nature. WA’s unemployment rates, high state debt, high cost of living, and predicted budget deficits, have not instilled confidence in voters.</p>
<p>The outgoing premier’s <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/wa-election/wa-election-vote-alp-and-return-state-to-unionrun-dullsville/news-story/5cb324d6f8a60586bb2b2295940bf375">last appeal to voters</a> was “please don’t vote for a return to Dullsville” that ended with the old argument that the unions would be in control under Labor. </p>
<p>Given the economic uncertainty, it was a strange plea. Many voters are more concerned with being able to pay their mortgage than take advantage of the <a href="https://thewest.com.au/opinion/dullsville-it-was-the-slap-in-the-face-perth-needed-ng-b88358013z">improvements to city</a>.</p>
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<span class="caption">Outgoing premier Colin Barnett had become unpopular with voters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span>
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<p>Barnett’s fundamental problem is that while his government has transformed Perth over the last eight years, voters are more concerned with their own economic circumstances, and the benefits of large infrastructure projects have not resonated.</p>
<p>It’s a hard sell to convince people that while the significant economic downturn over the last four years is due to circumstances the government can’t control, the government can nonetheless be trusted to turn the state’s fortunes around.</p>
<h2>Brendan Grylls distinguishes the Nationals from the Liberals</h2>
<p>Outside of Perth, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/BrendonGrylls">Brendan Grylls</a> appears to have saved the Nationals from oblivion.</p>
<p>Grylls is responsible, through the <a href="http://www.drd.wa.gov.au/rfr/Pages/default.aspx">Royalties for Regions</a> program, for differentiating the Nationals from the Liberals. While the swing against the Liberals is projected to be around 16%, the swing against the Nationals is projected to be less than 1%.</p>
<p>The fact the Nationals have held their ground is impressive on two fronts. The first was the threat One Nation posed outside the metro area.</p>
<p>The other is that the WA Chamber of Minerals and Energy <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/chamber-of-minerals-and-energy-spent-2m-on-antinationals-campaign/news-story/2594bdba4f312843aeb90895cb6f8ae2">spent around $2 million</a> campaigning against Grylls’ proposal of raising the 25 cent per tonne production rental fee on iron ore to $5, which would deliver an estimated $7.2 billion over the next four years.</p>
<p>Grylls is the member for Pilbara, having moved from the seat of Central Wheatbelt in the 2013 election. The tax policy was high risk, particularly for Grylls himself given that much of WA’s mining happens in his seat. </p>
<p>While the plan seems to have worked in the agricultural parts of the state, the count will continue in the mining seats of Pilbara and Kalgoorlie, which are too close to call. </p>
<h2>What the eastern states can learn from the result</h2>
<p>In terms of the WA election having federal implications for the Turnbull government, this really was an election determined by local issues.</p>
<p>During the campaign Bill Shorten visited three times, while Malcolm Turnbull made only one fleeting visit, where he failed to deliver a plan to get WA a <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-election-2017/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-throws-colin-barnett-under-the-bus-over-gst-20170220-guheqd.html">“fair” share of the GST</a>.</p>
<p>While it is generally not opportune for a national governing party to lose at state level, only internal mischief-makers would try to blame the loss on Turnbull’s leadership.</p>
<p>The most significant issues that will resonate across the country will be the outcome of the preference deal with One Nation, and the ability of the Nationals to differentiate themselves so convincingly from the Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74062/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast is Chair of the Editorial Board of The Conversation.</span></em></p>The long-running and unpopular Barnett government has been ousted, ushering in a new Labor government led by former navy lawyer Mark McGowan.Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Business Intelligence & Analytics, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/743302017-03-09T12:04:51Z2017-03-09T12:04:51ZGrattan on Friday: One Nation blows WA campaign but will Hanson’s supporters care?<p>Saturday’s Western Australian election will be decided overwhelmingly on state factors but its outcome will rumble into Canberra. </p>
<p>If the Barnett government is defeated, not only will Malcolm Turnbull have to contend with one more state Labor government but the Coalition backbench and the wider conservative constituency will become even more agitated in an already volatile climate. Turnbull has had virtually no role in the campaign but that wouldn’t protect him from the fallout of a Liberal loss. </p>
<p>Equally important, the state election is being watched as a major test of Pauline Hanson’s pulling power.</p>
<p>The preference deal between the Liberals and Hanson, at the expense of the furious Nationals, marks a new phase in relations between mainstream conservatism and the maverick right-wing outlier. If Hanson polls well, that will reinforce the pressure for preference deals, first at the coming Queensland election – where a deal already seems extremely likely – and then at the federal election.</p>
<p>But much will depend on how the Hanson vote is read. If she polls say, 10%, this can be interpreted as strong or as a disappointment when measured against earlier hints that she might do much better.</p>
<p>The disruptive force of Hanson, even amid an imploding party, has been on full display in recent weeks.</p>
<p>The WA preference deal – under which the Liberals preference One Nation over the Nationals for the upper house and One Nation puts Labor behind the Liberals for the lower house – has angered both Liberal and One Nation supporters. </p>
<p>Potential One Nation voters are looking for a party that disses the system – they don’t want to be told to support, albeit indirectly, the unpopular Barnett government. Hanson will pay a price if they think she has gone from the “outsider” to an “insider”. </p>
<p>For his part, Colin Barnett has had to protest endlessly that he’s not really in bed with Hanson and her mates. “Can I stress there’s no agreement with One Nation. I don’t endorse their policies. I don’t endorse their candidates and there is no agreement about any role in government about legislation or policy,” is his mantra.</p>
<p>The backlash from some Liberal supporters highlights the danger of Liberals anywhere in the country cosying up through preference arrangements to One Nation, whose attitudes are anathema to many on the conservative side of politics.</p>
<p>Hanson has spent the last week of the campaign in the west, particularly in regional areas, where the party hopes the preference deal will give it a balance-of-power role in the upper house.</p>
<p>The paradox of her campaign is that she is greeted as a celebrity on the streets, while members of her party have been turning on her bitterly. </p>
<p>Eighty-seven-year-old Ron McLean and his 79-year old wife, Marye Daniels, who have hired a high-profile lawyer, say <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-08/sacked-one-nation-couple-get-legal-representation/8336790">Hanson dumped them</a> last month from their party positions. McLean, who had been WA party president and a candidate for the upper house, claimed Hanson had said he was too old and would be 91 at the end of the parliamentary term. One Nation counter-claimed that it was about disloyalty and McLean’s health. </p>
<p>Polling analyst William Bowe says One Nation’s campaign has been “a bit of a shambles”. But he raises the question: “With respect to how well they’re going to go … how much does that matter?”</p>
<p>Just as the WA Liberals have been trying to defend their dubious deal with One Nation, Hanson has made their task more difficult by her inflammatory statements this week. </p>
<p>Hours before arriving in WA she told the ABC on Sunday that parents should do their own research before having their kids vaccinated, and she waxed lyrical about Vladimir Putin. The following day she was back on her Muslim jihad, saying they had changed Australian suburbs and questioning how one distinguished a good Muslim from a bad Muslim. </p>
<p>Malcolm Turnbull rounded on her on all three fronts. But former Queensland Nationals senator Ron Boswell, who trenchantly fought Hanson two decades ago, suggested the Liberals have given comfort to her. He pointed to federal cabinet minister Arthur Sinodinos’s observation some weeks ago that One Nation had become “a lot more sophisticated”.</p>
<p>Boswell <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/07/voters-will-desert-coalition-if-deals-done-with-one-nation-former-nationals-senator-warns">told Guardian Australia</a> he was worried that the conservatives were not taking Hanson on, but just thinking about the short term. Comments like those of Sinodinos were legitimising her – “making it safe for people to vote for her”.</p>
<p>The Hanson deal is a measure of Barnett’s desperation. Although Labor has to win ten seats to govern, requiring a uniform swing of 10%, polls have put Opposition Leader Mark McGowan on track for victory. </p>
<p>Barnett attributes his troubles to the longevity of his government, which was elected in 2008, but the state’s economic woes and the budget’s debt and deficit crisis have driven away voters. The end of the mining boom has seen a remarkable turnaround in a state that only a few years ago was riding high on the hog. Hit by job losses and collapsing house prices, many people are in shock.</p>
<p>Barnett’s proposal to privatise 51% of Western Power, the polls and wires network, to help tackle the budget crisis is a hard sell to a sceptical public. </p>
<p>One complication for Barnett is that he has been open about the fact that he would not serve a full term if re-elected. It might be commendable frankness but, for voters, it adds more uncertainty.</p>
<p>If he wins, McGowan’s victory will be largely because people just want to see the end of Barnett, who trails his opponent as preferred premier. It’s not that they hate him, but rather many voters simply think his time is over. </p>
<p>McGowan, a one-time naval lawyer and a former minister, is an experienced and competent technocrat. He mightn’t be very charismatic but still, given the campaign polls, the attempt by former federal minister Stephen Smith (not even a state MP) to replace him in the leadership last year seems even more extraordinary in retrospect than it did at the time.</p>
<p>If Barnett hung on, it would be in minority government, dependent on his alliance partner the Nationals. The dynamics of the now deeply aggrieved Nationals operating in the new government with the Liberals would be fascinating. They would be even more willing than in the past to play tough to get what they wanted.</p>
<p>On Thursday, Nationals leader Brendon Grylls reacted ferociously to Barnett’s plan to save money by cuts to the Nationals’ signature “royalties for regions” program; Grylls described the move as the “final betrayal”.</p>
<p>If McGowan wins, one of his early challenges would be to deal with Canberra and other premiers. He declares he would fight for a better deal on that perennial burr under the saddle for WA – its slice of the GST. This would require persuading fellow first ministers – and when it comes to money, state leaders put aside any fraternal party loyalty in pursuit of their own interest. </p>
<p>Turnbull has threatened that if McGowan as premier tried to dump Barnett’s road infrastructure plan in favour of Labor’s rail scheme, he wouldn’t get promised Commonwealth funding. </p>
<p>A defiant McGowan says Turnbull is bluffing. How does he know? </p>
<p>“If they don’t work with the West Australian government to give us our fair share, the electorates of Pearce, Hasluck, Swan, Canning, Stirling, will be lost to the Liberal Party. Self-interest always wins out and so they will do the right thing – because Christian Porter will be the first one to fall.”</p>
<p><em>This story has been amended to include Thursday’s row over the “royalties for regions” program.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Saturday’s Western Australian election will be decided overwhelmingly on state factors but its outcome will rumble into Canberra.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/728632017-02-14T03:02:50Z2017-02-14T03:02:50ZWA state election: Liberals’ deal with One Nation may come back to bite them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156680/original/image-20170213-25962-155z3xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">WA Premier Colin Barnett faces a battle to retain office after the March 11 state election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rebecca Le May</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elections are colourful affairs, and the March 11 state election in Western Australia is no exception. What is bringing particular clamour to this election is the resurgence of One Nation. </p>
<p>Pauline Hanson’s party has certainly made its presence felt. The party is contesting 35 of the state’s 59 Legislative Assembly seats, and fielding 17 candidates across the six upper house regions. According to the polls, it is also the third-largest party in electoral terms. The most recent <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-03/wa-election-newspoll-suggests-one-nation-support-surging/8237172">Newspoll</a> has One Nation’s primary vote at 13%, well ahead of the Nationals (5%) and the Greens (9%).</p>
<p>It is little wonder, then, that the Liberals finally ended speculation by announcing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-13/one-nation-deal-could-cost-liberal-party-wa-election-joyce-says/8264722">a preference deal</a> with One Nation. The Liberals will direct preferences to One Nation upper house candidates in regional seats. In exchange, One Nation will direct lower house preferences to Liberal candidates ahead of Labor candidates.</p>
<p>While the Liberals’ preference deal with One Nation is the first of its kind since John Howard took the decision as prime minister to place One Nation last on the Liberal how-to-vote card at the 2001 federal election, <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/opinion-liberal-party-too-willing-to-get-into-bed-with-one-nation/news-story/6513ed233569ed0ca712e07b7dd2ca23">it is not likely to be the last</a>. Over the past six months or so, the Liberals’ anti-One Nation resolve has been fraying. </p>
<p>In spite of <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/barnaby-joyce-tells-colin-barnett-that-one-nation-deal-will-put-liberals-out-of-government-ng-b88384335z">catastrophising</a> in some quarters, the preference deal is important for the Liberal-led government’s chances of re-election. The party’s first preference vote is at 30% and its two party preferred vote is 46%. ABC election analyst <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/guide/pendulum/.">Antony Green estimates</a> that “a swing of between 2.2% and 10% against the Liberals would produce a minority government”. In the face of a resurgent Labor Party, such a swing is possible.</p>
<p>The Liberals’ partners in government, the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-12/fallout-over-liberal-one-nation-preference-deal-in-wa/8263756">WA Nationals</a>, are the most grievously affected by this deal. Some commentators estimate it could cost them their five upper house seats. </p>
<p>But the Nationals can hardly be surprised by the Liberals’ decision. Although the relationship between the two parties is often civilised, it also has a long history of strife. </p>
<p>In recent years, tensions between the parties were re-ignited when, prior to the 2008 WA election, the Nationals declared they would not be seeking <a href="http://newsweekly.com.au/article.php?id=3619.">a coalition but a partnership</a> with the Liberals.</p>
<p>The Nationals leveraged the fact that neither major party had attained a parliamentary majority to negotiate a deal that provided for 25% of all state royalty payments to be set aside for re-investment into a <a href="http://theconversation.com/brendon-grylls-risks-all-in-battle-for-the-pilbara-12036">royalties for the regions program</a>. While the Nationals eventually agreed to support the Liberals, there was no doubt that the Nationals were seriously entertaining the prospects of doing a parliamentary deal with Labor. </p>
<p>A more traditional coalition arrangement was resumed following the 2013 state election, but the relationship between the two parties showed signs of strain by August 2016. The return of Brendan Grylls – the architect of the 2008 parliamentary agreement – to the Nationals’ leadership, and the unpopularity of the Barnett government, marked the return of a more assertive Nationals party.</p>
<p>Under Grylls’ leadership, the Nationals have been less than willing to commit to a <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/grylls-ponders-second-poll-over-mining-tax-ng-b88379765z">new alliance</a> with the Liberals. Grylls has indicated that support for any minority government would be contingent on the Liberals agreeing to support an increase in the lease rental fee on BHP and Rio Tinto from 25c to $5 a tonne on Pilbara iron ore production. The Liberals oppose this.</p>
<h2>Consequences of the deal for the Liberals</h2>
<p>The preference agreement carries some risk for the Liberals.</p>
<p>It is not entirely clear whether One Nation preferences will flow in a manner consistent with the party’s how-to-vote card. In part this is a question of whether One Nation has the infrastructure to deliver on the agreement. </p>
<p>A successful how-to-vote card strategy requires a party presence at polling booths on election day. The major parties struggle to cover all of their polling booths, so One Nation is likely to struggle too. </p>
<p>There is also a question mark over whether One Nation supporters will actually follow the party’s how-to-vote card recommendations, even if given one. </p>
<p>If the party’s voter base is anything like some of One Nation’s candidates, there is no reason to think that the preference deal will be widely supported. Already one of the party’s highest-profile candidates, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-13/one-nation-candidate-refuses-to-preference-liberals-wa-election/8265354">Margaret Dodds</a>, has rejected the deal on the basis of policy differences with the Liberals and concerns about the lack of consultation over the agreement. </p>
<p>Even if a significant proportion of One Nation preferences help to secure the Liberals’ return to government, the deal will cost the Liberals when the incoming upper house members take their seats in May. </p>
<p>While lower house preference deals are difficult for parties to impose on their supporters, there is greater certainty on preference flows for the upper house. Proportional representation, combined with above-the-line voting, makes it highly likely that most of the Liberal surplus preferences will find their way to One Nation’s upper house candidates. </p>
<p>This greatly increases One Nation’s prospects of holding the balance of power in the Legislative Council. Should this happen, the Liberals’ plans to partially privatise the state’s electricity utility in order to pay down soaring debt will not be realised. One Nation is staunchly opposed to the privatisation.</p>
<p>So while the Liberals’ decision is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-12/liberal-party-one-nation-preferences-possible-sinodinos-says/8263378">“pragmatic and sensible”</a> in the short term, it might seriously compromise the party’s legislative agenda should it be returned to office.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the Liberals’ decision to preference One Nation on how-to-vote cards might be expedient in the short term, it could seriously cost them if they are returned to power.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/728482017-02-12T10:33:12Z2017-02-12T10:33:12ZOne Nation has now been ‘normalised’ in the Liberals’ firmament of political players<p>The decision by the Western Australian Liberals to do a preference deal with One Nation will bring some ripples for Malcolm Turnbull.</p>
<p>The WA Liberals have their backs against the wall – for them it’s a matter of the Barnett government desperately trying to survive against the Labor tide.</p>
<p>The embattled premier, Colin Barnett, said the move was “unusual, but it is a practical, pragmatic decision by the Liberal Party, because what we’re out to do is to retain government”. </p>
<p>And as Liberal senator Linda Reynolds told Sky: “One Nation has got a lot of support here in Western Australia”.</p>
<p>But inevitably, not just because of One Nation’s policies but because of the history of the Liberals’ attitude to the controversial party, the WA embrace will be challenging for Turnbull to handle. When he campaigns in the state poll, he’ll have to deal with questions about it.</p>
<p>The deal harms the WA Nationals who, though a different beast to their eastern cousins, and in an alliance rather than a coalition with the state Liberals, are nevertheless definitely part of the Nationals’ “family”.</p>
<p>Under the deal, as <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/wa-election-2017-wa-liberals-do-preference-deal-with-one-nation/news-story/ace365de8d0807eac963be1449895fef">reported by the WA Sunday Times</a>, the Liberals would preference One Nation above the Nationals in the upper house regional seats, in return for One Nation preferencing against Labor in the lower house. This could cost the Nationals seats and help One Nation to win the balance of power in the upper house.</p>
<p>Deputy Prime Minister and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce observed cryptically on Sunday that: “Always as times grow cold … new friends are silver but old friends are gold”. It’s a fair bet it won’t be his last word on the subject. In response to earlier talk of the plan he predicted it would bring “another blue in WA”.</p>
<p>The WA deal will only be the start of the story. In Queensland <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-galaxy-one-nation-surges-to-23-72840">the latest Galaxy poll</a> has One Nation on 23% at state level, with an election likely later this year.</p>
<p>Federally, the Liberals are running the line that Hanson and her party are different these days.</p>
<p>Cabinet minister Arthur Sinodinos told the ABC on Sunday: “They are a lot more sophisticated; they have clearly resonated with a lot of people. Our job is to treat them as any other party.</p>
<p>"That doesn’t mean we have to agree with their policies. When it comes to preferencing, we have to make decisions – in this case a state decision, not a federal decision – based on the local circumstances.”</p>
<p>Compare the tone to Turnbull’s attitude before the federal election when he was asked whether he’d agree Pauline Hanson was a “known quantity in Australian politics” and “can you rule out negotiating or horse-trading with her”.</p>
<p>“Pauline Hanson is, as far as we are concerned, not a welcome presence on the Australian political scene. You’ve got to remember she was chucked out of the Liberal Party,” he said.</p>
<p>As soon as Hanson arrived in parliament with her Senate team Turnbull changed his tune. They had talks. Hanson was chuffed. When Turnbull was recently asked about the mooted WA preference deal he dodged the questioning but did note that federally: “We respect every single member and senator”.</p>
<p>One also has to remember that thanks to Turnbull running a double dissolution, Hanson won four Senate seats and a significant slice of the upper house balance of power.</p>
<p>In an ordinary Senate election she would have ended up with just her own seat. Turnbull would argue the double dissolution has made it easier to get legislation through – even though it is a tortuous process that will bring its failures – but in terms of boosting Hanson’s clout and profile the cost has been significant.</p>
<p>Even if she had had only one Senate seat One Nation might have surged in WA and Queensland, but her federal weight has helped – regardless of the antics of her now ex-WA senator Rod Culleton, who has been tossed out of the parliament.</p>
<p>One Nation, because of its power, has now been “normalised” in the Liberals’ firmament of political players, something likely to stick in the craw of their more “small-l” supporters. The Liberals are afraid of the populist party, but the days of denouncing it holus-bolus are gone. </p>
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The decision by the Western Australian Liberals to do a preference deal with One Nation will bring some ripples for Malcolm Turnbull.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/594592016-06-16T20:08:14Z2016-06-16T20:08:14ZState of the states: why Labor’s fortunes are on the rise in Western Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125627/original/image-20160608-15028-s6bjsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malcolm Turnbull visited a shipyard early in the campaign to highlight an already announced contract to build naval patrol boats.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mike Bowers</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Ahead of polling day on July 2, our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2016">State of the states series</a> takes stock of the key issues, seats and policies affecting the vote in each of Australia’s states and territories.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>By nature a conservative state, the Liberal Party has dominated Western Australian politics for most of the past decade. As well as holding power at the state level in coalition with the Nationals, the Liberals hold 12 of WA’s 15 current federal lower house seats and six of the 12 Senate seats.</p>
<p>This enormous majority has resulted in WA Liberals playing a significant role nationally. Four serve as cabinet ministers, including Julie Bishop and Mathias Cormann.</p>
<h2>Key seats</h2>
<p>Starting from a low base, and despite the fact that all three sitting members are not seeking re-election, Labor’s fortunes in WA appear to be <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/05/09/the-20-seats-labor-needs-to-win/">on the rise</a>. In part this is down to the strong swing against the state government.</p>
<p>Labor should hold onto all three of its existing seats (Fremantle, Perth and Brand). It is also likely to take the new seat of Burt; its candidate, Matt Keogh, ran as Labor’s candidate in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wash-up-from-the-canning-byelection-47836">2015 Canning byelection</a>. The most recent BludgerTracker, which combines the results of a number of polls, has a <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/10/reachtel-50-50-5/">swing to Labor in WA of 8.9%</a>.</p>
<p>The seats most likely to change hands are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/cowa/">Cowan</a>, held by Luke Simpkins, has seen the notional majority fall from 7.5% to 4.5% in the recent redistribution. High-profile counter-terrorism academic Anne Aly is contesting the seat for Labor.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/hasl/">Hasluck</a>, held by Ken Wyatt with a notional majority of 6% after the redistribution, has changed hands multiple times since 2001. Labor’s candidate is another academic, historian Bill Leadbetter.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/swan/">Swan</a>, held by Steve Irons, has a notional margin of 7.3%. The seat is being contested for Labor by Tammy Solonec, an Indigenous human rights lawyer who ran for the Greens as an upper house candidate in the last state election.</p></li>
<li><p>There’s also talk of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/stir/">Stirling</a>, held by Michael Keenan, being a possible gain for Labor. However, this would require a notional swing of 9%. Labor candidate Robert Pearson has been very low key so far.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>While the Greens are very unlikely to win any seats in the lower house, they are in a good position to <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/05/24/simulating-the-senate/">hold onto their two Senate seats</a>. The Liberals appear set to win at least four Senate seats, and Labor could possibly move up to four seats.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=663&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=663&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=663&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor’s target seats in Western Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">WA Labor/Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Key state issues</h2>
<p>State issues will be more significant than usual in the 2016 federal election. WA Premier Colin Barnett has become <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-17/wa-premier-says-he-will-lead-party-to-next-election/7421326">deeply unpopular</a> within the electorate and apparently within his own party as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-01/liza-harvey-mike-nahan-back-wa-premier-colin-barnett-leadership/7467038">rumours of a leadership challenge</a> persist.</p>
<p>The state government appears currently to be a magnet for bad news. Further possible delays may prevent the opening of the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-25/doubt-remains-over-perth-childrens-hospital-opening/7446266">new children’s hospital</a>, which was originally due to open in November 2015. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/perth-city-link-blow-mirvac-aborts-key-land-deal-with-state-government-20160524-gp33mp.html">collapse of a deal</a> that would develop commercial, retail and residential property at the Perth City Link, in conjunction with delays in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-07/another-delay-for-elizabeth-quay-development/7305826">private construction at Elizabeth Quay</a>, leaves the government with two large investments that are unlikely to meet community expectations for years and continue to be a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-25/elizabeth-quay-costs-criticised-by-opposition/7445964">drain on the public purse</a>.</p>
<p>Between 2008 and 2014 WA was sheltered in a bubble; the global financial crisis was perceived as an event happening elsewhere. The boom of all booms was on, and this time it was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/site-archive/rural/news/content/200911/s2739442.htm">going to last at least 20 years</a>. </p>
<p>The rapid downturn in WA’s economy has come as a shock – not just for voters, but for the government. State surpluses are a thing of the past and WA now finds itself with a <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-state-budget-2016-the-biggest-deficit-in-history-20160512-gots4b.html">debt of A$40 billion</a> and an economic downturn that <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/31588050/state-budget-2016-was-ecconomy-is-still-shrinking/">still hasn’t bottomed out</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/31736671/perth-house-prices-still-in-retreat/">House prices are falling</a>, as are <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-07/vacant-rental-properties-in-perth-reach-record-levels/7392614">rents</a>. For the first time in years there has been a move from the private <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-economy-education-idUSKCN0YP0GG">to the public school system</a> as out-of-work parents, and many workers now forced to live on their base salary without any of the market and performance bonuses, try to cut costs.</p>
<h2>Policy proposals</h2>
<p>WA Labor leader Mark McGowan has forged a canny coalition with federal Labor leader Bill Shorten.</p>
<p>Shorten has pledged to <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/federal-opposition-leader-bill-shorten-promises-1-billion-for-metronet-20160522-gp17yf.html">move a A$1 billion</a> in federal funding from the state government’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-12/federal-government-pledges-boost-for-perth-freight-link/7318600">unpopular Perth Freight Link</a> to Labor’s ambitious <a href="http://www.markmcgowan.com.au/files/HeavyRailVision-small.pdf">MetroNet</a>, a significant extension of Perth’s suburban railway network. </p>
<p>Metronet was the key policy in WA Labor’s 2013 state election campaign. While Labor lost the election, it has kept the policy, which resonated with the public. It has been referenced throughout the last three-and-a-half years as the government has failed to deliver on its <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/perths-max-light-rail-plan-set-to-be-dumped-for-12-billion-bus-service/news-story/853cd6f590dd099801a0bb4f17f99829">promise of light rail</a>.</p>
<p>For McGowan, sharing Metronet with his federal counterparts is a win-win scenario. The policy receives free attention in the lead-up to next year’s state election, and now has the promise of national funding – assuming Labor wins at the federal level. Labor’s backing of Metronet also places pressure on the federal government to provide funding to alleviate <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/31744308/bid-to-stop-perth-s-sprawl/">Perth’s transport woes</a>.</p>
<p>No conversation about WA’s views of federal politics is complete without stressing the importance of the GST issue. WA’s economy has tanked, yet the state will still only be receiving 30 cents in the dollar <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/wa-premier-colin-barnett-calls-on-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-to-tackle-gst-carveup/news-story/334e15605a88fb047ab4f3419dc38efe">in GST revenue</a>. </p>
<p>It doesn’t matter <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/flagpost/2014/july/gst-relativities-where-is-revenue-raised">how fair the GST formula is</a>, or that the Commonwealth is providing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-10/wa-set-for-490m-federal-government-gst-top-up-payment/7313958">a top-up to WA</a> to make up part of the shortfall. The optics of the “GST rip-off” resonate across both major parties, and Barnett and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-08/wa-treasurer-slams-gst-carve-up/7309644">his treasurer</a> have expressed their anger at their national counterparts over insufficient GST funding.</p>
<p>So far each major party leader has made two visits to WA. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/05/16/pm-visits-wa-shipyard-and-nt-pub">made a short first visit</a> to a shipyard to highlight an already announced contract to build naval patrol boats. </p>
<p>Both leaders spent time in their second visits campaigning in marginal seats as pre-polling opened. </p>
<p>There was much focus on Turnbull’s declaration that the federal government <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-14/pm-rules-out-federal-funding-for-perth-stadium/7508146">would not be providing $100 million</a> for the new Perth stadium, although he did pledge <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/31834936/pm-pitches-dollars-for-wa-baseball/">$6 million for Baseball Park</a>. Also gaining attention was the <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/31834086/wa-premier-says-pm-is-not-avoiding-him/">notable absence of Colin Barnett</a> by Turnbull’s side. </p>
<p>Shorten used his second trip to announce Labor’s new <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/06/14/shorten-pledges-62m-apprentices">$62 million policy on apprenticeships</a>. </p>
<p>Western Australians should expect to be bombarded with political advertising, particularly from Labor in its quest to pick up seats, as we get closer to polling day. </p>
<p>While it is improbable WA will be gifted the equivalent of a submarine building contact, we should expect to see both sides offering sweeteners to the state as July 2 draws closer. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Catch up on <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2016">others in the series</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>This piece has been amended to correct that the $40 billion figure is the size of WA’s debt, not its deficit.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast is chair of The Conversation's editorial board.</span></em></p>When it comes to Western Australia, key state issues will be more significant than usual in swinging the vote in the 2016 federal election.Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Performance Analytics, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/569072016-03-30T03:10:54Z2016-03-30T03:10:54ZWA port sales the latest privatisations to hit political hurdles<p>The Western Australian Nationals recently <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-18/wa-nationals-demand-fremantle-port-sale-answers-from-liberals/7258310">announced</a> they will no longer support the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/port-of-fremantle-to-hit-the-market-for-15-billion-as-privatisation-wave-continues-20150515-gh2hy5.html">government’s plan to privatise Fremantle Ports</a>. Last week, the WA Nationals also <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-23/utah-point-port-sale-stalls-as-nationals-defer-legislation/7268582">halted passage of the Pilbara Port Privatisation Bill</a>, which deals with the sale of the Port Hedland Utah Point Bulk Handling Facility. They have asked a parliamentary committee to investigate the proposed sale.</p>
<p>A number of junior minors such as Atlas Iron, Mineral Resources and Consolidated Minerals use the Utah Point facility to export their iron ore. These miners have expressed concern about a potential increase in handling charges if the new owner was looking to improve their return on investment.</p>
<p>The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) says the <a href="http://www.miningnews.net/operations/infrastructure/pilbara-port-sale-threatens-regions-miners/">privatisation plan is creating uncertainty for the junior miners</a>. AMEC also says an increase in costs could jeopardise their operations and viability.</p>
<p>The asset sales agenda is <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/policy/budget/wa-debt-spirals-towards-unprecedented-39b-20151220-glsabf">driven by the state’s large debt and budget deficits</a> in the forward estimates. The Barnett Liberal government had flagged its <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/31147316/voters-reject-wa-government-asset-sell-offs/">intention to sell a number of public assets</a>, including Fremantle Ports, the government-owned manager of the state’s biggest general cargo port and Australia’s fourth-largest container port. </p>
<p>The WA Nationals’ decision comes soon after political posturing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-09/victorian-opposition-reaches-agreement-with-port-privatisation/7232428">delayed the privatisation of the Port of Melbourne</a> in Victoria. After a Legislative Council select committee inquiry, Victoria’s Labor government had to water down the proposed legislation to secure the support of the opposition to pass the bill. The changes resulted in more regulatory oversight, a shorter period of potential compensation payments to the new owners if a competing port was built during the lease period and control measures in port pricing regimes. </p>
<p>Whether the delay in timing (the sale is now scheduled for late this year or early next year) and the legislative changes will affect the sale price of the port remains to be seen. Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas is still hopeful of hitting the A$6 billion-plus mark.</p>
<h2>Privatisations prompt strategic concerns</h2>
<p>Another obstacle in the way of privatising critical infrastructure (and achieving bigger proceeds) is federal Treasurer Scott Morrison’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-18/scott-morrison-tightens-foreign-investment-rules/7257624">announcement of tighter foreign investment rules</a> in the wake of the controversial sale of the Port of Darwin to a Chinese company. From next month the Foreign Investment Review Board will need to approve the sale of critical infrastructure, such as ports and airports, belonging to the states and territories. </p>
<p>The 99-year lease of the Port of Darwin to an <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/china/new-darwin-port-owners-militia-links-to-chinas-military-20151117-gl1b4y.html">entity with alleged links to the Chinese government and military</a> did not please the US government. Washington considers Darwin’s port a strategic asset in view of the presence of a large contingent of the US Navy, which uses the port for its supply chains.</p>
<p>WA Premier Colin Barnett told Parliament <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-23/fremantle-port-sale-fail-as-nationals-withdraw-support/7270868">his government still intended to introduce legislation</a>, probably in the next sitting week, to support the sale of the port. He hoped for a change of mind by the Nationals and/or support from Labor and the Greens. If the sale was stalled, Mr Barnett said he would take it to the next election.</p>
<p>Labor seems to be hedging its bets with no publicly declared position on the sale of the port. But given Labor’s strong links to the Fremantle electorate (federal and state) and the maritime union (MUA organiser Chris Brown is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-11/mua-candidate-gets-labor-preselection-nod-for-fremantle/7241144">favoured to be preselected for the seat of Fremantle</a> for this year’s federal election) the opposition would be hard pressed to support the sale.</p>
<h2>What changed the Nationals’ mind?</h2>
<p>Nationals leader Terry Redman previously supported the sale. His change of heart comes after likely pressure from provincial backbenchers who still recall the sale of the WA government-owned country rail network to Brookfield, a global infrastructure company based in Canada. That left grain farmers with failing infrastructure and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-04/cbh-and-brookfield-come-to-interim-rail-deal-in-wa/6441336">rising costs to get their grain to global markets</a>. </p>
<p>Some of those fears were also played out in the proposed takeover of Asciano where Brookfield intended to have control over Pacific National, a rail provider and part of Asciano, which hauls grain to ports on the Australian eastern seaboard. Now that <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/from-foes-to-friends-how-qube-and-brookfield-teamed-up-to-bid-for-asciano-20160225-gn3pdx.html">Qube Logistics and Brookfield have joined in a bid for Asciano</a>, a revised split-up of Asciano businesses has ensured Pacific National will no longer be under the control of Brookfield. This seems to have eased the concerns of grain growers across the country.</p>
<p>Fremantle Ports is the last capital city port to be privatised. However, a lot of water will probably have flowed under the Stirling Highway Bridge (a vital link to the port of Fremantle across the Swan River) before a deal can be done.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56907/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter van Duyn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Barnett government’s plans to sell ports, including the last capital city port slated for privatisation, appear to have been torpedoed by the WA Nationals’ change of heart.Peter van Duyn, Maritime Logistics Expert, Institute for Supply Chain and Logistics, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/561952016-03-15T04:17:39Z2016-03-15T04:17:39ZWA Labor avoids own goal, but what damage has Smith’s tilt at the leadership done?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115036/original/image-20160314-11292-akxbj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Stephen Smith's bid to return to politics as Labor leader in Western Australia has ended in defeat.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tony McDonough</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The destabilisation of Mark McGowan’s leadership of the Western Australian Labor Party by former federal defence minister Stephen Smith – and his unnamed supporters within state parliament – was a folly of the worst sort.</p>
<p>Smith <a href="https://twitter.com/G_Parker/status/709607226910978048">ended his leadership tilt</a> following caucus’ <a href="https://twitter.com/josh_jerga/status/709574447875751936">unanimous endorsement</a> of McGowan on Tuesday. </p>
<p>Smith’s surprising tilt at the leadership occurred following a month of rumours of an <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-13/perth-mp-alannah-mactiernan-backs-mark-mcgowan-wa-labor-leader/7165802">attempt to replace McGowan</a> – first with former state transport minister and retiring federal MP Alannah MacTiernan, and then with Smith.</p>
<p>Smith’s challenge <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-14/wa-labor-mps-rally-behind-mark-mcgowan-stephen-smith-leadership/7244360">fizzled out by Monday night</a> after a weekend of speculation. Shadow cabinet released a statement unanimously supporting McGowan. The state executive <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-15/reece-whitby-endorsed-at-state-executive-meeting/7246912">rushed through</a> the preselection of Reece Whitby for the new seat of Baldivis. This cut off Smith from the most obvious entry point into parliament.</p>
<h2>State of play</h2>
<p>A year out from the next state election, the <a href="http://cdn.newsapi.com.au//image/v1/9a3bb27048ae8931a676006131527dc7">latest Newspoll</a>, released in January, had the Barnett government in trouble. Labor held a 53-47 two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/liberals-take-the-lead-in-latest-wa-opinion-poll/news-story/363e0dfcc4f9323f8cd5cada5ec06245">Roy Morgan poll</a> from early February had the government in an election-winning two-party-preferred position at 54.5%. However, McGowan had a strong rating of 56.5% over Colin Barnett as preferred premier.</p>
<p>Following the Newspoll result, it was <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/01/12/poll-bludger-wa-libs-out-of-money-out-of-votes/">reported</a> that internal polling shows the swing to Labor is not uniform, and that the party faces additional challenges as a result of the recent redistribution.</p>
<p>McGowan is in his fourth year as leader. During the 2103 state election, while campaigning against a somewhat struggling government, Labor made inroads in the electorate with its <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-30/mcgowan-in-metronet-pledge-at-wa-labor-state-conference/6735570">Metronet public transport</a> ambitions, but McGowan was unable to stop a strong swing toward the government.</p>
<p>Labor was <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-election-barnett-and-the-liberals-do-it-easy-12470">never going to win</a> that election. It looked as though Labor was set for another two terms in opposition following 2013; winning government requires a 10% swing.</p>
<p>The Barnett government’s second election honeymoon period was fleeting. The scandal surrounding then-treasurer <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/troy-buswell-suffers-mental-breakdown-after-drunken-crash-quits-cabinet/story-fnhocxo3-1226850029901">Troy Buswell</a>, who resigned in disgrace, wreaked havoc with the government’s policy agenda.</p>
<p>Over the past four years, McGowan has been a solid opposition leader, with a competent team of frontbenchers, plugging away at a government unable to come to terms with a booming economy that didn’t slow down as much as come to a screaming halt. There is still a level of disbelief within WA that not only has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-21/western-australia-deficit-blowout/7045374">the state’s credit rating</a> been downgraded, but that the debt will reach A$39 billion by 2019. </p>
<p>While performing consistently, the opposition has been low key, at times struggling to break through. In part this is because the almost unbelievable events in Canberra since 2010 have overshadowed state politics across Australia. As such it is difficult for the opposition to gain the oxygen required in a one-daily-newspaper town.</p>
<p>It hasn’t all been smooth sailing for McGowan. Labor state secretary Simon Mead’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-22/ex-wa-labor-state-secretary-simon-mead-to-get-$266,000-payout/6564478">costly departure</a> brought unwanted attention to the party’s internal workings. The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-28/labor-defends-use-of-monster-debt-label-in-wa/6504850">“debt monster”</a> stunt designed to draw attention to WA’s spiralling debt was not universally well received.</p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mark McGowan leads Colin Barnett as preferred premier a year out from the election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Angie Raphael</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Former WA Labor state secretary John Halden’s claim that McGowan <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-10/mark-mcgowan-not-flamboyant-enough-win-election-halden-says/7237350">isn’t flamboyant</a> enough to be premier would have been a legitimate argument if MacTiernan were making a run for the leadership. But to suggest Smith, one of the driest performers Labor has produced, would prove any more animated than McGowan certainly raised eyebrows.</p>
<p>A highly competent minister, Smith now appears to be suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome. With his attempt to seize the leadership, he has engaged in a level of destabilisation more suited to Canberra than Perth.</p>
<p>Labor forces, including a significant number of local MPs, quickly gathered around McGowan to shore up his position. Despite McGowan surviving, and performing strongly since Friday in dismissing Smith’s claims about his leadership, he has sustained completely unnecessary damage.</p>
<p>The worst-case scenario for McGowan is that, having seen Smith was serious, caucus members get worried if Labor’s numbers drop in the local polls, and Smith sits on the sidelines stalking McGowan.</p>
<p>At some point Labor needs to consider the message such actions send to current and future MPs. Why would anyone put up their hand to undertake the hard yards of opposition only to have the leadership taken off them late in the day in the hope that another candidate will be more popular on polling day?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56195/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast is is the Chair of the Editorial Board of The Conversation.</span></em></p>A highly competent minister, Stephen Smith now appears to be suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome in his failed attempt to seize the Labor leadership in Western Australia.Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Performance Analytics, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/516632015-12-09T02:13:11Z2015-12-09T02:13:11ZTurnbull faces his most taxing test yet: wooing the states to overhaul the GST<p>Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s first Council of Australian Governments (<a href="https://www.coag.gov.au/">COAG</a>) meeting this Friday will be a test of whether his vaunted commitment to a new “style of leadership … that recognises there is an enormous sum of wisdom both within our colleagues in this building and of course further afield” extends to the state and territory leaders.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/everything-is-on-the-table-leaked-coag-agenda-reveals-gst-changes-being-considered-20151208-gli766.html">Tax reform</a> is dominating the media’s coverage ahead of Friday, as well as Thursday’s treasurers’ meeting. The two days of discussions will pick up from the work done at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/leaders-debate-the-gst-what-you-need-to-know-44958">special COAG retreat</a> in July, and since, including new federal Treasury analysis of different tax options. </p>
<p>But don’t expect any clear decisions on tax reform on Friday – these discussions still have a long way to go. Instead, we can expect to see more progress on other national issues including domestic violence, new strategies against violent extremism, and tackling COAG’s structural flaws.</p>
<h2>Some signs that this COAG might prove more co-operative</h2>
<p>At the first Premiers Conference held in 1901, Prime Minister Edmund Barton had the courtesy to thank the premiers for attending and giving him “the advantage of your experience and wisdom”.</p>
<p>On Friday, premiers and chief ministers will fly into Canberra with different expectations. Such gentle civility has long since been replaced by the rituals of summitry, which focuses on the theatre of personalities and politics, winners and losers, and deals made or rebuffed.</p>
<p>For Turnbull, the signs so far have been positive. Many premiers – not just from his own side of politics – were quick to phone after Tony Abbott was deposed, and seemed happy with the response they met with. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104019/original/image-20151202-14450-13astyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104019/original/image-20151202-14450-13astyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104019/original/image-20151202-14450-13astyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104019/original/image-20151202-14450-13astyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104019/original/image-20151202-14450-13astyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104019/original/image-20151202-14450-13astyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104019/original/image-20151202-14450-13astyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104019/original/image-20151202-14450-13astyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Soon after becoming prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull travelled to the Gold Coast to announce new light rail funding with Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszcuk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/8rYs7vMqF7/?taken-by=turnbullmalcolm">@TurnbullMalcolm/Instagram</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk spoke of the “constructive” conversations she enjoyed on transport infrastructure and her support of his innovation agenda.</p>
<p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews also spoke of his “productive” relationship with Turnbull and the opportunity to move on from the impasse experienced with Abbott on redirecting federal funding from the scrapped East West Link project.</p>
<p>But will this positivity flow into Turnbull’s first COAG meeting?</p>
<p>COAG is a <a href="https://www.coag.gov.au/about_coag">meeting of leaders</a>, each with a high profile within their home jurisdiction. They bring their own priorities and leadership style to the meeting.</p>
<p>Within such a dynamic, collective agreement is never easy – especially on politically sensitive topics like raising the GST to 12.5% or 15%, as well as possibly increasing the Medicare levy, among the options reportedly outlined in an official document <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/everything-is-on-the-table-leaked-coag-agenda-reveals-gst-changes-being-considered-20151208-gli766.html">leaked to Fairfax</a> ahead of Friday’s meeting.</p>
<p>But there are a couple of issues on the December agenda that transcend party lines.</p>
<h2>From violence in our homes to violent extremism</h2>
<p>The last two COAG meetings saw the issue of domestic violence high on the agenda, with the discussion guided by advice from the COAG Advisory Panel on Reducing Violence against Women and their Children. </p>
<p>This December meeting will focus on signing off on a campaign to change young people’s attitude to violence and to consider the Model Law Framework for Domestic Violence Orders and National Perpetrator Standards. All states and territories have committed to funding the campaign on changing young people’s attitudes.</p>
<p>There has been a strong bipartisan commitment to counter-terrorism and countering violent extremism measures from COAG ever since the Howard government.</p>
<p>This Friday’s meeting will acknowledge the transition from a police-based response to broaden the focus to one of working with the community to promote prevention and early intervention with individuals. </p>
<p>States have been investigating innovative strategies to engage with youth at risk, community engagement and resilience. This meeting will identify a number of national strategies to promote social cohesion.</p>
<h2>The most taxing debate</h2>
<p>The issue where partisan tensions will emerge is tax reform. This is particularly challenging for Labor states that must walk the divide between their jurisdictional needs for new funding streams while not undermining <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2015/nov/26/bill-shorten-if-you-think-australians-want-a-15-gst-you-live-on-another-planet-video">federal Labor’s opposition</a> to any increase to the GST.</p>
<p>Labor premiers Palaszczuk and Andrews have both rejected any GST rise from 10%. </p>
<p>But South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill broke party ranks by putting forward a plan to overhaul federal-state tax arrangements. The plan included <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-27/weatherill-wants-gst-hike-for-the-sake-of-health-care/6978974">increasing the rate to 15%</a> with the increased revenue being retained by the Commonwealth, and in exchange the states would receive a fixed share of personal income tax. Weatherill will outline this plan at Friday’s meeting.</p>
<p>The prickliest premier that Turnbull will deal with during this discussion is likely to be a fellow Liberal – WA Premier Colin Barnett. </p>
<p>Barnett is now Australia’s longest-serving premier and is opposed to discussing raising the GST rate unless the distribution model is also reconsidered. After the April COAG meeting, Barnett threatened to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wa-move-over-gst-shortfall-could-clog-up-federalism-expert-20150413-1mk7yi.html">“disengage”</a> from the federation unless the GST system was changed. His stance has not softened in the interim.</p>
<p>It is unlikely a major announcement on tax reform will come from Friday’s COAG meeting, given the federal government’s options or <a href="http://bettertax.gov.au/have-your-say/process/">“green” paper</a> on tax reform won’t be released until next year. But the states’ views will flow into the options outlined in that upcoming paper.</p>
<h2>Tackling COAG’s structural flaws</h2>
<p>Beyond the formal agenda, there are a number of structural issues around the strategic role of COAG; dominance by the Commonwealth of the agenda; and cultural issues about lack of collaboration and coercive decision-making that continue to irritate the premiers. It will not take them long to make the prime minister aware that their desire still remains strong to see reform of the COAG model.</p>
<p>With the prime minister controlling the agenda and setting the meeting times, the state and territory leaders have a range of reforms to pursue through the <a href="https://federation.dpmc.gov.au/">Reform of the Federation White Paper</a>. The change of prime minister will not have diminished their enthusiasm for reform, so expect to see the state and territory leaders continuing to push for a joint Commonwealth/state secretariat and collaborative agenda setting.</p>
<p>As we have already seen, Turnbull’s charm can help him avoid some of the pitfalls of partisan and personality politics, which always lurk beneath the surface of COAG.</p>
<p>However, the transactional nature of intergovernmental relations in Australia has led to a system based on negotiation and well-developed bargaining skills. More than his charm, Turnbull will need to bring raw political deal-making skills to the COAG table this Friday, particularly if he wishes to win national consensus for any of the new proposals for tax reform.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51663/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Menzies is a Member of the Commonwealth Grants Commission. She occasionally undertakes consulting work for state government.</span></em></p>Despite all the media coverage, don’t expect any clear decisions on national tax reform on Friday. But we should see more progress on other issues, including domestic violence and violent extremism.Jennifer Menzies, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/515612015-12-06T19:12:26Z2015-12-06T19:12:26ZSeparate but unequal: the sad fate of Aboriginal heritage in Western Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103977/original/image-20151201-30804-1raee6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">More than 3,000 Aboriginal sites have lost registration status as part of sweeping changes in classifications in the Aboriginal Heritage Register.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Domes of Purnululu, Western Australia. Pic: David Denicolò</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is systemic discrimination against Aboriginal heritage in Western Australia. This does not come from a racist administrator somewhere who hates Aboriginal heritage, but from the evolution of the institutions, rules and conventions that make up cultural heritage management.</p>
<p>Let me explain why.</p>
<p>Western Australia manages the heritage sites of Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal sites through different institutional channels, under different laws. This system is now providing much higher levels of protection for non-Aboriginal heritage.</p>
<p>There are several obvious imbalances. Should the <a href="http://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/parliament/bills.nsf/BillProgressPopup?openForm&ParentUNID=E863020A2E318B6A48257D9D000BC478">Aboriginal Heritage Amendment bill</a> that’s currently before parliament be passed, the maximum penalty for an individual illegally disturbing a non-Aboriginal heritage site will be A$1 million and two-years imprisonment, but for an Aboriginal site it will be A$100,000 and 12 months imprisonment, doubled on a second offence (it is currently A$20,000 and imprisonment for nine months, increasing to A$40,000 and two years for a second offense). </p>
<p>Less obviously, since Colin Barnett’s government took office in 2008 it has gradually reduced protection by <a href="http://aboriginalheritagewa.com/2015/07/04/uwa-sitewatch-study-highlights-mass-deregistration-of-aboriginal-sites-under-barnett-government-since-2008/">reinterpreting definitions</a> within the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/wa/consol_act/aha1972164/">Aboriginal Heritage Act 1972</a> to severely curtail the number of new sites. To date, some 1,262 sites have been blocked from gaining protection. </p>
<p>In 2012 the definition of “sacred” was reinterpreted to only include sites “devoted to a religious use rather than a place subject to mythological story, song or belief” – leading to the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/whats-sacred-now/6549614">deregistration of 35 sites</a>. This was found earlier this year to be a “<a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/wa/WASC/2015/108.html">misconstruction</a>” by Justice John Chaney in the Supreme Court of Western Australia. Dreamtime stories have long been and continue to be considered sacred to Aboriginal people. </p>
<p>Furthermore, a <a href="http://aboriginalheritagewa.com/2015/07/04/uwa-sitewatch-study-highlights-mass-deregistration-of-aboriginal-sites-under-barnett-government-since-2008/">recent report by UWA archaeologists</a> indicates that more than 3,000 Aboriginal heritage sites have lost registration status as part of sweeping changes in classifications in the Aboriginal Heritage Register. </p>
<p>At no stage have Aboriginal custodians been notified about the changing status of their heritage. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104011/original/image-20151202-14470-i0aa3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104011/original/image-20151202-14470-i0aa3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104011/original/image-20151202-14470-i0aa3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104011/original/image-20151202-14470-i0aa3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104011/original/image-20151202-14470-i0aa3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104011/original/image-20151202-14470-i0aa3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104011/original/image-20151202-14470-i0aa3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104011/original/image-20151202-14470-i0aa3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Larrkardiy, a boab tree also known as The Prison Tree, is protected under the Aboriginal Heritage Act 1972.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">sunphlo</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Separate and unequal protection</h2>
<p>For many years Aboriginal heritage has been protected through the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/wa/consol_act/aha1972164/">Aboriginal Heritage Act 1972</a>. Non-Aboriginal heritage gained greater protection than Aboriginal heritage when the <a href="http://www.slp.wa.gov.au/legislation/statutes.nsf/main_mrtitle_418_homepage.html">Heritage of Western Australia Act 1990</a> came into law. Together, these two acts are the legal basis for Western Australia’s system of cultural heritage management. They have very different origins and historical arcs. </p>
<p>The Heritage of Western Australia Act was the result of <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/31019250?selectedversion=NBD44036224">30 years of lobbying by Western Australians</a> who were concerned about the destruction of important heritage starting in the 1950s. Due to its incorporation into the <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/wa/consol_act/pada2005236/">Planning and Development Act 2005</a> and the obligations it places on local government, it is well integrated into the Western Australian planning system. </p>
<p>Currently the government is <a href="http://stateheritage.wa.gov.au/about-us/acts-policies/heritage-green-bill-2015">pursuing amendments to the Heritage of Western Australia Act</a> to provide greater transparency in decision-making, clarify terminology and create a new repair order power.</p>
<p>The second channel of cultural heritage protection, the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/wa/consol_act/aha1972164/">Aboriginal Heritage Act 1972</a>, was created after outcry in 1969, when a prospector began mining and selling sacred stones from the <a href="http://aboriginalheritagewa.com/papers/">Weebo site</a>. </p>
<p>Despite being celebrated, the Aboriginal Heritage Act has <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/16573294?selectedversion=NBD6455573">never provided complete protection from resource extraction</a>. In 1980, Western Australia Premier Charles Court controversially gave police protection to a convoy of oil drilling rigs, which <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/sir-charles-a-man-of-vision/story-e6frg12c-1111115180557">forced their way</a> onto sacred land. </p>
<p>An independent body of experts established by the Act, the <a href="http://www.daa.wa.gov.au/about-the-department/boards/aboriginal-cultural-material-committee1/">Aboriginal Cultural Materials Committee</a>, may consider applications to disturb heritage. </p>
<p>Between 2001 and 2007, <a href="http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=423287764087405;res=IELIND">488 applications were considered</a> and permission to disturb heritage given 480 times. </p>
<p>The Aboriginal Heritage Act 1972 is not mentioned in the Planning and Development Act 2005 and is less integrated into Western Australia’s planning system. Aboriginal heritage is generally not listed on local government municipal inventories of heritage and most local governments consider the protection of Aboriginal heritage a matter between a developer and the State government. </p>
<h2>Proposed amendments to the Aboriginal Heritage Act</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/parliament/bills.nsf/BillProgressPopup?openForm&ParentUNID=E863020A2E318B6A48257D9D000BC478">Aboriginal Heritage Amendment Bill 2014</a>, currently before parliament, has drawn criticism from Western Australia member for parliament Robin Chapple, <a href="http://www.robinchapple.com/AHA">who, amongst many others, has argued</a> the changes will decrease transparency in decision making and democratic oversight. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/frustration-rises-over-changes-to-the-wa-aboriginal-heritage-act-30308">key provisions</a> give the chief executive officer of the Department of Aboriginal Affairs the power to declare “there is no Aboriginal site on the land”. </p>
<p>Extraordinarily, the proposed amendments would allow developers to appeal if their applications are rejected, but make no provision for Aboriginal custodians to appeal the CEO’s decision. </p>
<p>The proposed amendments do not address the most glaring inequalities in the dual systems. In addition to the heavier penalties for illegally disturbing non-Aboriginal heritage sites, non-Aboriginal heritage is managed by the Heritage Council in concert with local government and planning authorities, while Aboriginal heritage is managed by a small section within the Department of Aboriginal Affairs. </p>
<p>Perhaps most significantly, the end of Aboriginal use or presence of non-Aboriginal use at an important archaeological site could potentially bring it under the Heritage of Western Australia Act. This would paradoxically give it a higher level of protection and management. </p>
<p>This goes against Australia’s <a href="http://australia.icomos.org/publications/charters/">guiding heritage principles</a> that place great emphasis on continued use. </p>
<h2>Changing understandings, changing systems</h2>
<p>The first step towards a fairer system is a new understanding of where we Western Australians live. Western Australia has enjoyed at least 50,000 years of Aboriginal inhabitation. We need to recognise that Aboriginal connection and heritage is ongoing and will continue to exist within our cities, our suburbs, our towns, our parks, our yards and our farms. </p>
<p>We need a system of cultural heritage management able to cope with this recognition. </p>
<p>Recognition and management of this heritage needs to be, through an inclusive planning process, integrated into the a single system. With amendments to both acts now before the Western Australian parliament, now is the time to exert political pressure. </p>
<p>The status quo is now so unequal that it is untenable. The only solution is a holistic and inclusive approach to Western Australia’s system of cultural heritage management. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Tod will be on hand for an Author Q&A between 11am and noon WST on Tuesday, December 8, 2015. Post your questions in the comments section below.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tod Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More than 3,000 Aboriginal heritage sites in Western Australia have lost registration status as part of sweeping changes in classifications in the Aboriginal Heritage Register. That needs to change.Tod Jones, Senior Lecturer, Human Geography, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/403092015-04-20T00:07:41Z2015-04-20T00:07:41ZTime for states to change the script over GST gains<p>I am a fan of the Netflix series House of Cards, even though it seems implausible that experienced political players would always behave so predictably and often cede power to the protagonist so easily. </p>
<p>However, the recent “stoush” over GST revenue distribution shows that even seasoned politicians will follow the script. So when prime minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-gst-and-health-test-abbott-in-fractious-federation-40342">Tony Abbott deflected responsibility</a> to the states and territories to sort out the current distribution, unsurprisingly Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett rehashed the parochial and simplistic east-versus-west diatribe.</p>
<p>Like interest rates, the outcome is largely determined by an independent body, the Commonwealth Grants Commission (CGC), although the states and territories are consulted, and the treasurer makes the final formal determination. </p>
<p>Despite treasurer Joe Hockey and finance minister Mathias Cormann’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/federalism-the-loser-as-hockey-ransoms-gst-to-push-wa-reforms-40085">public sympathies</a> for the WA position, it has not changed the outcome — and rightly so. Australia has arguably a comprehensive and complex equalisation formula that - unlike most federations in the world - fully equalises between states by taking into account a state’s revenue capacity and expenditures. </p>
<p>Its complexity is <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-coag-and-the-gst-carve-up-40323">due the rigorous methodology employed by the CGC</a>, which is transparent and fair. It is near impossible for a state to “game” the system in its favour.</p>
<p>WA did not have a problem when it last formally endorsed the current system in 2008 in signing the Intergovernmental Agreement on Federal Financial Relations. Since 1981, when the current equalisation progress essentially began, WA has been a net recipient state on 19 occasions, compared to only 15 instances beginning in 1997 when it has been a donor state. </p>
<p>Compare that with Victoria, which has never received more than its relative share. Unfortunately for Victoria though, we do not have a Finance Minister or Deputy Leader of a governing party representing our state in public debates.</p>
<p>However while Victoria’s relative share has never fallen below 80 per cent, WA’s is at a record low 37.6 per cent and falling (in other words it is only receiving about 38% of its population entitlement). </p>
<p>This is a stark statistic - but it is partly because only GST revenue is equalised, and therefore the effect is more pronounced than if all grants were equalised. Despite all the rhetoric that broadening or increasing the GST will miraculously fix state finances, it only comprises a relatively small proportion of revenue. In the case of WA, in the last budget it was less than 10% of revenue, and about a third of other unequalised Commonwealth grants, and about a third of resource royalties.</p>
<p>While falling resource prices will take years to be fully accounted in the equalisation process, states like New South Wales and Victoria have experienced the challenges of a high Australian dollar while WA boomed. Yet they have long been “donor” states, and despite the boom, they are still responsible for most of the country’s wealth. Like the Commonwealth government during the boom years, the WA government has not adequately prepared for its end.</p>
<p>Any “freeze” in the redistribution of GST revenue would mean an end to the full equalisation process and a return to the previous system where Queensland, WA, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory made claims for special grants. The $500 million in “extra” revenue to WA would mean less for other states, which are also facing financial challenges. </p>
<p>To put Western Australia’s special pleading into perspective, in its last budget the WA government allocated $902 million for a new stadium and sports precinct and $616 million for subsidising electricity. The government lauded that fact that WA has the second-lowest “household basket” expenses for services in the country: <a href="http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/Budget-Summary.aspx">$5,096 compared to $7,054 for a resident of New South Wales</a> Hardly indicative of a “crisis”.</p>
<p>None of this is to suggest that the states are not facing real fiscal challenges, but rather than turning on each other and playing into the Commonwealth government’s hands, state government leaders need to collectively propose ideas to meaningfully reform the federation.</p>
<p>Shares of GST revenue are nothing compared to looming shortfalls in health and education expenditure, and a lack of policy continuity as changes in government at the federal level affect future funding agreements. </p>
<p>At the moment the Commonwealth is calling all the shots, which it can given its financial power. But it is also generating ideas through its <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/renewing-federalism">White Paper process</a> on reforming the federation and its previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/national-commission-of-audit">Commission of Audit</a>. </p>
<p>Rather than fighting over pots of money the states need to make coordinated claims for sustainable revenue bases and for more responsibility. Politically, many state governments are in a better position than the Commonwealth, and with so many crossbench Senators claiming states interests now is a good time to advance an alternative agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Brenton receives research funding from the State Government of Victoria.</span></em></p>The stoush over GST redistribution followed a predictable script of squabbling between states; but now is the time for an alternative agenda.Scott Brenton, Lecturer in Political Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/386982015-03-12T01:20:47Z2015-03-12T01:20:47ZFor the real story on Indigenous Australia, social beats old media<p>With support from its friends at the federal level, the Western Australian government has dusted off and rebadged the template for the Howard government’s 2007 <a href="http://www.creativespirits.info/aboriginalculture/politics/northern-territory-emergency-response-intervention">intervention</a> into Indigenous communities in the Northern Territory. This was an act that former minister Alexander Downer <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2007/s2100454.htm">admitted</a> was an attempt to get a jump in the polls.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Tony Abbott said earlier this week that the WA government’s plan to close up to 150 remote Indigenous communities is a good idea, as taxpayers cannot be expected to support the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/10/remote-communities-are-lifestyle-choices-says-tony-abbott">“lifestyle choices”</a> of those living remotely. His argument has since been <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/noel-pearson-blasts-abbotts-lifestyle-choice-comments-as-shameless">demolished</a> by Indigenous and other commentators, notably on social media. </p>
<p>However, the furore over Abbott’s comments both sidelines and highlights the lack of real discussion on the policy’s intention. As <a href="https://twitter.com/LukeLPearson/status/575434341955821568">Luke Pearson</a>, the founder of rostered Twitter feed <a href="https://twitter.com/IndigenousX">@IndigenousX</a>, remarked:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"575434341955821568"}"></div></p>
<p>Research has shown <a href="http://books.google.com.au/books/about/Racism_Ethnicity_and_the_Media.html?id=27ZxQgAACAAJ&redir_esc=y">time</a> and <a href="http://www.canberra.edu.au/about-uc/faculties/arts-design/attachments2/pdf/MIP-Report_Combined_Final.pdf">again</a> that although it is held dear by journalists, Australian journalism’s democratic watchdog role is severely lacking when it comes to representing the interests and perspectives of Indigenous Australians. </p>
<p>The causes are partly economic, partly cultural, and largely systemic. My PhD research (currently under examination and part-published) has shown that the routine journalism practices involved in newsgathering, news-writing and news-editing work against a fair and balanced representation. </p>
<p>As in 2007 regarding the NT Intervention, in 2014-15 there has been a general failure among the mainstream media to ask basic questions regarding the WA and now the federal governments’ claims and motives since Barnett <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-12/indigenous-communities-closures-will-have-severe-consequences/5886840">first announced</a> that the communities may close.</p>
<p>The WA government initially outlined its plans to close the remote Indigenous communities on the grounds that they are “<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/03/wa-premier-withdraws-royalties-help-for-struggling-aboriginal-communities">unviable</a>”. It then shifted the discussion of reasons for the closures to one of <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/indigenous/barnett-warns-evidence-of-remote-child-abuse-will-shock/story-fn9hm1pm-1227250102847">child abuse</a> last week. Barnett foreshadowed and pre-empted an apparent ongoing investigation that he claims will reveal child abuse in those communities. </p>
<p>This is the 2007 NT Intervention template, with one difference. The WA investigation – or “comprehensive look” – would not produce a report. Barnett <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/06/wa-premier-flags-communities-review-but-fails-to-meet-indigenous-leaders">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’m not into reports, that’s not my style. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, there was a report in 2007. The <a href="http://www.inquirysaac.nt.gov.au/pdf/bipacsa_final_report.pdf">Little Children Are Sacred</a> report was the result of a year-long <a href="http://www.inquirysaac.nt.gov.au/overview.html">inquiry</a> into child sexual abuse in remote NT Indigenous communities.</p>
<p>The Howard government claimed that the intervention was a policy response to the report. However, a close reading of the report reveals how the policy was nothing of the sort. The report made 97 recommendations – but in devising the intervention, the Howard government ignored them while bringing in measures, such as welfare quarantining, that were not recommended. </p>
<p>The child abuse nightmare scenario <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2007/06/21/john-howard-the-transcript/">painted</a> by the Howard government in 2007 was not supported by the report. <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08164640802263440#.VQC3RvmUcuc">Research</a> shows that child abuse claims are a powerful consensus-builder for policy. There is no suggestion that there was not child sexual abuse within the NT communities, but there is no evidence that it was anywhere near at the level painted by the government.</p>
<p>The media duly reported the government claims used to justify the policy. However, it was as if many journalists had not even read the report – they had simply taken the government’s arguments at face value.</p>
<p>Lately, Australia’s mainstream news media has largely been reprising this role. As in 2007, it is not only not attempting to seek out or represent Indigenous opinion on this matter beyond that of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/noel-pearson-blasts-abbotts-lifestyle-choice-comments-as-shameless">Noel Pearson</a> and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/warren-mundine-attacks-pms-lifestyle-choice-comment-hes-wrong">Warren Mundine</a>, but it has been actively ignoring different voices than those supporting the WA government’s plans. </p>
<p>The Australian, which <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9EeVUSk7CU">claims</a> to be the only newspaper that has taken Indigenous affairs coverage seriously, has published <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/tony-abbott-is-right-to-kick-off-indigenous-lifestyle-choice-debate/story-fn8qlm5e-1227258059499">two</a> <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/children-in-remote-areas-dont-get-choice-or-opportunities/story-e6frgd0x-1227259574889">articles</a> from its associate editor Chris Kenny defending the policy and deriding any opposition to Abbott’s remarks. It has <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/tony-abbotts-disconnect-breeds-indigenous-resentment/story-e6frg6zo-1227258988357">published</a> <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/indigenous/tony-abbott-opens-gap-with-indigenous-community/story-fn9hm1pm-1227259223905">others</a> with criticism of Abbott’s comments and the policy – quoting mainly Mundine and Pearson. </p>
<p>But since 2007, digital-only news site <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/06/wa-premier-flags-communities-review-but-fails-to-meet-indigenous-leaders">The Guardian Australia</a> has provided a sharp contrast in its coverage of Indigenous affairs, as has a relaunched <a href="https://newmatilda.com/2015/03/10/barnett-plays-abuse-card-defend-closure-remote-west-australian-communities">New Matilda</a> under editor Chris Graham.</p>
<p>Another big difference between 2007 and now is the presence of social media as a news- and opinion-dissemination platform. Indigenous and non-Indigenous social media users concerned about the WA plans did not have to wait for the mainstream media to “allow” their contributions be heard. </p>
<p>In 2007, Indigenous communities in the NT made concerted efforts to be heard in the mainstream media – but were ignored. For example, the Combined Aboriginal Organisations of the Northern Territory, comprising 40 Indigenous groups from across the NT, produced an <a href="http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/4760235">alternative strategy document</a> in immediate response to the intervention announcement. This generated only two small newspaper reports.</p>
<p>While it is commendable these newspaper reports – both in Fairfax newspapers – appeared at all, they demonstrably favoured the government perspective that batted away criticism of its policy without engaging with it. These days, such a reverse-intervention from NT communities would be able to receive much wider and more considered attention through social media.</p>
<p>Mainstream media, up to now, has largely failed to critically engage with the issues arising in WA, just as it failed to critically engage with what arose in the NT in 2007. However, social media – “<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-tony-abbott-you-cant-dismiss-social-media-as-electronic-graffiti-36819">electronic graffiti</a>,” according to Abbott – has been going ballistic. This noise has arguably come to the attention of the mainstream media, which cannot ignore the crescendo. </p>
<p>But who is the government listening to?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research this article is based on was supported under the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Projects funding for the Australian News Media and Indigenous Policy-making 1988-2008 project (DP0987457). The author was also a recipient of an Australian Postgraduate Award.</span></em></p>The furore over Tony Abbott’s ‘lifestyle choices’ comments both sidelines and highlights the lack of real discussion on Indigenous policy in Australia.Michelle Dunne Breen, Researcher and Lecturer in Journalism Practice, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/330432014-10-15T23:04:09Z2014-10-15T23:04:09ZIs Colin Barnett a communist?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/61882/original/9kdd8xp3-1413409506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Western Australia is an interesting place. No, really! True, lots of students from Asia think Perth’s a bit ‘quiet’, but at least local politics is getting a bit more exciting. Indeed, our state premier, Colin Barnett, seems to have been channelling Karl Marx to judge by some of his recent statements.</p>
<p>It’s not only the fact that comrade Colin famously declared that Beijing is more important to Western Australia than Canberra that leads some people – alright, just me so far, but keep reading – to think that our leader may have departed from the capitalist road. Remarkably and revealingly enough, the premier has launched an entirely unprovoked attack on some of the local captains of industry.</p>
<p>To be fair, I probably need to qualify the term ‘industry’ in this case. The target of premier Barnett’s outrage is the resource sector, which isn’t exactly a byword for the sort of sophisticated value-adding that we’ve suddenly decided might be worth preserving after all. The plutocratic potentates who are the subject of his ire are not that local either: Australia’s resource sector is actually overwhelmingly foreign-owned and controlled, of course.</p>
<p>Be that as it may, the reason I suspect that the premier may have become a closet Marxist – I put it no more strongly than that at this stage – is that his analysis of the resource sector’s activities bears an uncanny resemblance to the sort of thinking we imagined had become a discredited historical curiosity in the wake of the Soviet Union’s demise. </p>
<p>Radical left-wing readers of a shamelessly biased site such as The Conversation will need little reminding that one of Marx’s big ideas – key insights his apologists would claim – is that there is something inevitable about the concentration and centralisation of capital. In other words, there is a sort of Darwinian logic to the way big business operates as it drives out smaller, weaker producers.</p>
<p>The recent activities of Rio Tinto and BHP are, according to the man who seems to be Marx’s most influential local disciple, designed to achieve precisely that end. For those readers who think I’m making this up, let me quote Colin Barnett himself:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I find it a strange policy, indeed a flawed policy, that the major iron ore producers would be putting more and more product into a declining, soft market … I find it strange that the companies are acting seemingly in a concert way.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Strange, indeed, unless you’re a student of the Bearded One, of course. It’s worth remembering that premier Barnett was at one time a ‘university lecturer’, which as any informed person knows is generally a synonym for a self-indulgent, publicly funded whinger who is entirely out of touch – or even more worryingly, dissatisfied – with the real world.</p>
<p>Some might attribute the premier’s recent radicalism to the fact that WA’s financial position is a mess and the budget estimates are also wildly out of touch with reality. Barnett claims this is largely a consequence of the ‘conspiracy’ to drive down the price of iron ore and the royalties it generates. </p>
<p>In this regard the premier has no one but himself to blame, though. His government has indulged in a totally unjustified and unaffordable bout of infrastructure ‘investment’ that also bears an uncanny resemblance to the sort of thing they do in China – with equally disastrous effects.</p>
<p>It’s also important to remember what the premier’s principal intellectual influence predicted about the long-term fate of capitalism: it would inevitably be undone by its own supposed ‘internal contradictions’. Am I alone in thinking that the premier may be contemplating seceding and declaring the ‘People’s Republic of Western Australia’? Recent events in Scotland remind us anything is possible.</p>
<p>In this regard, at least, I don’t think we have too much to worry about, though. The market forces that the premier now seems to distrust if not despise have already worked their magic in this state. The resource sector now dominates both the economic and the political life of Western Australia. And let’s not forget that the miners also saw off that other ideological upstart, Kevin Rudd, who also knew a bit too much about China, come to think of it. </p>
<p>The mighty miners shouldn’t have too much trouble putting Barnett back in his box either. After all, iron ore royalties now account for more than 20% of the WA budget. Indeed, the resource sector might actually be doing the Barnett government a favour: the budget crisis is forcing the premier to give up on his left-wing agenda and push through cuts in the public sector and reduce wasteful infrastructure spending.</p>
<p>Barnett would be well advised to take another look at his Marxist text book. He needs to remember that the state is supposed to be ‘the executive committee of the bourgeoisie’, not its principal critic. Even his heroes in China have given up being communists. It’s about time the premier did, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33043/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Western Australia is an interesting place. No, really! True, lots of students from Asia think Perth’s a bit ‘quiet’, but at least local politics is getting a bit more exciting. Indeed, our state premier…Mark Beeson, Professor of International Politics, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/326772014-10-10T01:56:55Z2014-10-10T01:56:55ZPoliticians and media let us down in fight to curb rising Islamophobia<p>Many incidents of violence and harassment directed at Australian Muslims <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/dozens-of-antimuslim-attacks-as-islamic-leaders-warn-of-community-fear-20141009-113tmk.html">have been reported</a> recently. These are visible confirmation of <a href="http://islaminaustralia.com/2014/08/20/muslim-community-denounces-anti-terror-law-proposals/">fears expressed by their community</a>, that support for the government’s new security laws and military action in Iraq would be rallied with “racist caricatures of Muslims as backwards, prone to violence and inherently problematic”.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/live-antiterrorism-raids-across-sydney-and-brisbane-20140918-3fzkq.html">Policing and intelligence operations</a> have focused exclusively on members of the Muslim community. This has contributed to a <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/09/25/backlash-against-australian-muslims-worsens">public backlash</a> against Muslims and <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2772656/We-called-terrorists-home-Taliban-Now-Sikhs-say-targeted-amid-anti-Muslim-tensions.html">supposed Muslims</a>. The immediacy and scale of this outbreak of Islamophobia is alarming.</p>
<h2>Stereotypes do terrible damage</h2>
<p>Australia has emerged as a fertile environment for Islamophobia. Stereotypical representations of Muslims in the early years of the “War on Terror” – which linked terrorism, violence and Islam – gained wide currency by the mid-2000s. </p>
<p>Sections of the news media, politicians and <a href="http://www.dailylife.com.au/news-and-views/dl-opinion/the-trouble-with-jacqui-lambies-antiburqa-campaign-20140921-10k2iq.html">social media</a> have re-activated these stereotypes. Muslim Australians are made to feel they are targets - for everything from the everyday racism encountered in schools and on the streets, to draconian counter-terrorism legislation that restricts civil liberties, to war and the preparations for war.</p>
<p><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/casp.1110/abstract;jsessionid=A8C364F0F805BDF4C9978019BC2E867F.f01t03?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false">Social psychological research</a> has shown that when public figures and media endorse negative stereotypes this legitimises prejudicial attitudes. This can influence the translation of such attitudes into discriminatory actions, as we have seen in the recent spate of attacks.</p>
<p>Australia now has several openly Islamophobic far-right social movements and political parties. Until recently these were generally small and operated largely in isolation. However, such groups have begun to <a href="https://newmatilda.com/2014/09/24/anti-terror-raids-embolden-australian-defence-league-and-far-right-groups">collaborate on campaigns</a>.</p>
<p>These groups also appear to be <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/rise-up-australia-leader-danny-nalliah-calls-islam-a-death-cult-20140920-10jr5x.html#ixzz3EVoN76RT">attracting more support</a> from the wider community. The re-emergence of anti-Muslim rhetoric in public discourse has provided legitimisation for their views.</p>
<h2>Muslims suffer when Coalition dons khaki</h2>
<p>The government also appears to be a political beneficiary of the resurgence in Islamophobia. As national security concerns top the news agenda, pressures on the government on a range of other fronts, particularly the deeply unpopular May budget, have faded into the background. </p>
<p>The increased “terror threat” was followed by rises in the approval rating of <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/09/22/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-4/">Prime Minister</a> Tony Abbott and Coalition <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/10/07/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-july-to-september/">voting intentions</a>. </p>
<p>The amplification of threats to national security has worked for struggling conservative governments before. In 2001, the Howard government was polling poorly, yet managed to snatch victory later that year. The Coalition election campaign played on racial anxieties and national security fears following the “children overboard” affair and the September 11 terrorist attacks.</p>
<p>In 2010, with the Coalition again languishing in the polls, then opposition immigration spokesman Scott Morrison sought to replicate this strategy. He <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-sees-votes-in-antimuslim-strategy-20110216-1awmo.html">urged the shadow cabinet</a> to “capitalise on the electorate’s growing concerns about "Muslim immigration” and Muslims’ “inability to integrate”.</p>
<p>The Prime Minister has not been nearly as forthright in condemning acts of Islamophobia as he has been in denouncing Islamic extremists. He even weighed into the debate to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-dismisses-muslim-protest-over-counterterrorism-raids-20140919-10jc7r.html">dismiss Muslim community concerns</a>. And Abbott failed to condemn the inflammatory push from within his party for a “<a href="http://theconversation.com/burqa-and-niqab-they-cover-the-face-not-the-mind-31558">burqa ban</a>”.</p>
<p>This is in contrast to the firm and admirable stance taken by Western Australian Premier <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/spiteful-attacks-on-women-in-hijabs-focus-of-premiers-meeting-with-wa-muslim-leaders/story-fnhocxo3-1227075617300">Colin Barnett</a>. He emphasised that “Australia as a country has a history of respecting different cultures and faiths”. The reported taunting and terrorising of Muslim women and children in Perth was “unacceptable”.</p>
<h2>Media reports that marginalise harm us all</h2>
<p>The media is not blameless either, as some journalists have <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/26/the-acid-test-australian-journalists-must-ask-what-agenda-they-serve">acknowledged</a>. Australian Muslims <a href="http://artsonline.monash.edu.au/gtrec/files/2012/08/counterterrorreport-07.pdf">have consistently identified</a> the media as a central social institution that contributes to their marginalisation and exclusion.</p>
<p>Media reporting has frequently perpetuated stereotypes. It has also failed to reflect the diversity of origins, outlooks and aspirations of Muslim Australians. Journalism of this sort negatively affects other Australians’ perceptions of Islam and the Muslim community.</p>
<p>My research has shown that articles with lower levels of Islamophobia feature the voices of “ordinary” Muslim men and women. They humanise them. Such articles contextualise conflicts and avoid simplistic frameworks such as “good versus evil” or “War on Terror”.</p>
<p>The media can do more to highlight positive efforts by individuals and groups to resist and respond to oppression and conflict. More balanced perspectives can reduce the reinforcing and perpetuation of Islamophobia. </p>
<p>The “newsworthiness” of stories related to Islam and conflict, and the concentration of negative reporting patterns, suggest that adoption of conflict reporting standards could be another key way to curb Islamophobia.</p>
<p>The mass media and our politicians will be central to either exacerbating or stemming Islamophobia. Gestures of support and solidarity from the non-Muslim community, and <a href="http://www.theherald.com.au/story/2609165/standing-up-to-racism/?cs=303">standing up to racism</a>, are also important.</p>
<p>Combating Islamophobia is vital to the wellbeing of the Muslim community, to wider community cohesion and to limiting recruitment for groups such as Islamic State (ISIS)/Da’ish. To curb Islamophobia, we must contest the political spectacle that gives rise to discriminatory and violent treatment against Muslims by the state and some non-Muslim Australians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32677/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leticia Anderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many incidents of violence and harassment directed at Australian Muslims have been reported recently. These are visible confirmation of fears expressed by their community, that support for the government’s…Leticia Anderson, Lecturer, Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/325602014-10-07T03:19:37Z2014-10-07T03:19:37ZResponse to the latest shark bite is fuelled by myth and retribution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/60951/original/pf2qm57s-1412635254.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C3259%2C2218&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Western Australia has killed two great white sharks after a surfer was seriously injured last week.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sharkdiver.com/Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When I used to tell people that I did my PhD on the politics of shark attacks, they would ask, “Is there a politics to shark attacks?” Nobody asks that any more. Now they just say, “Oh, like in Western Australia?”</p>
<p>Those politics have been deployed again in the past week, after surfer Sean Pollard <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-02/shark-attack-off-esperance/5785820">lost an arm and his other hand</a> in an incident near Esperance on the state’s south coast. </p>
<p>In response, the Barnett government implemented its “imminent threat” <a href="http://www.dpc.wa.gov.au/Consultation/Documents/Appendix%203%20Guidelines%20for%20fishing%20for%20sharks%20posing%20an%20imminent%20threat.pdf">policy</a>, which calls for the setting of baited drumlines in an area where a shark bite incident has occurred. (The policy, which remains in place despite the <a href="https://theconversation.com/western-australian-shark-cull-policy-dumped-experts-react-31621">demise of the wider shark cull</a>, also allows a shark swimming near a popular beach to be pre-emptively killed.) Two protected great white sharks were <a href="http://www.9news.com.au/national/2014/10/02/14/03/man-loses-both-arms-in-wa-shark-attack">killed</a> as a result. </p>
<p>Yet the exact details of the original incident are far from clear. Pollard said he believed <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/25163473/shark-victim-tells-of-feeding-frenzy">two bronze whalers</a> were responsible. Meanwhile, scientists who examined his surfboard believe that <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/25186141/wa-expert-says-white-shark-attacked-surfer">one white shark</a> may have been involved, although they were <a href="http://www.fish.wa.gov.au/About-Us/Media-releases/Pages/Examinations-of-white-sharks-complete-.aspx">unable to confirm</a> whether either of the two sharks that were later killed was responsible.</p>
<h2>Myths and rogues</h2>
<p>The myth that sustains this policy goes something like this: individual large sharks pose a threat because they are territorial. A shark that bites someone is likely to do it again, and even if there is not an incident now, it is better to kill the shark because it may return. </p>
<p>We have heard this logic before … in the movie Jaws. The policy is predicated on a fictional Hollywood myth that “<a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/premier-colin-barnett-targets-rogue-sharks-threatening-wa-beachgoers-after-drum-line-policy-is-scrapped/story-fnhocxo3-1227056468863">rogue</a>” sharks will return to an area and pose a threat to beachgoers and surfers. </p>
<p>The story of serial-killing sharks, however, is not the most concerning aspect. The real problem is how this myth serves as a distraction from a bigger issue. </p>
<p>There continue to be serious and fatal shark bites along the Australian coast that are horrific and life-changing for those involved, their loved ones and their communities. It is time for serious efforts to try and reduce the risk of shark bites based on science and common sense beach safety. But the WA government’s imminent threat policy is not a serious effort at shark bite prevention. </p>
<h2>Safety… or revenge?</h2>
<p>WA’s Jaws-style policy is designed to provide public catharsis through retribution, not public safety. The imminent threat policy can be enacted to kill sharks regardless of whether there are any people in the water, or whether the shark was involved in an incident, or whether killing it improves beach safety, or whether the species is protected by law. In short, this is closer to an old-fashioned witch hunt than to sound public policy. </p>
<p>But it gets worse. While we should give WA credit for spending millions of dollars on scientific tags and testing new non-lethal measures, the latest episode led the Department of Fisheries to kill a white shark that had an internal acoustic tag. So the fiction-based policy that doesn’t help beach safety just undermined a scientific program that does. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the policy also provides a false sense of security by painting a picture of one shark as the issue – the “problem shark”. </p>
<p>How do we improve this situation, both politically and socially? Here are a few ideas:</p>
<p><strong>This is about the people, not the sharks.</strong> </p>
<p>It is important to hit the pause button and remember that this issue has touched communities all over Australia. This year has seen fatal shark bites on Australia’s east coast, involving <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/christine-armstrong-63-dies-on-regular-morning-swim-after-shark-strikes-20140403-361jp.html">Christine Armstrong in Tathra</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-north-east-wales-29132909">Paul Wilcox in Byron Bay</a>, as well as in the west. After the intensity of these events fades, the difficulty and tragedy will remain and community support for the victims and their families is essential.</p>
<p><strong>This is about the government, not the sharks.</strong> </p>
<p>When it comes to beach safety, governments across Australia need to redirect their focus onto public education and science. The facts are simple. We cannot shark-proof Australia, so public education is the only real way forward. This is a way for WA and the other states to lead and bring people together, rather than setting groups apart with divisive policies. Everyone is in favour of better awareness and education but this remains the missing piece. </p>
<p><strong>This policy could get worse, not better.</strong> </p>
<p>At the moment, the Barnett government appears to support the killing of uninvolved, protected, scientifically tagged great white sharks. One tagged shark has already been killed, and it is possible that things could get even worse from here. With the start of the summer beach season, I expect there will be pressure to begin killing tagged great whites that set off acoustic alarms near beaches. The government has noted that this will not happen, but it is a logical next step in the current thinking. </p>
<p>In all, I hope for a safe, quiet summer with no human-shark encounters. I also hope that science can be used as the basis for public policy. Movie myths make for bad policy and the public deserves better. </p>
<p>The question now is whether the latest tragedy can serve as a tipping point for real shark bite prevention.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32560/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Pepin-Neff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When I used to tell people that I did my PhD on the politics of shark attacks, they would ask, “Is there a politics to shark attacks?” Nobody asks that any more. Now they just say, “Oh, like in Western…Christopher Pepin-Neff, Lecturer in Public Policy, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/260382014-04-29T20:30:56Z2014-04-29T20:30:56ZWA shark cull season ends, and ocean users don’t want it to return<p>The end of April marks the end of Western Australia’s shark cull – for now at least. Since January 25, dozens of sharks (the WA government has not yet released official figures) have been killed off popular beaches in Perth and the state’s southwestern tip.</p>
<p>The WA government remains committed to the plan, having <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-23/epa-to-assess-impact-of-wa-shark-cull-policy/5406350">asked the Environmental Protection Authority</a> for permission to carry on killing great white, tiger and bull sharks longer than 3m between November and April for the next three years.</p>
<p>Yet <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00049182.2014.899023#.U2MmgK2SzWZ">our research</a> shows that most surfers, divers and other ocean users don’t want the cull to continue. Instead, people favour improved education and ocean monitoring, and wider acceptance of the risks associated with ocean use.</p>
<h2>Fierce protest</h2>
<p>The state’s drum line project is part of a broader <a href="http://www.fisheries.wa.gov.au/Education-and-Partnerships/Shark-Hazard/Pages/default.aspx">shark hazard mitigation strategy</a>, devised in the wake of several deaths attributed to sharks over the past three years. </p>
<p>But the strategy – and particularly the use of drum lines – has sparked fierce protest in WA, as well as across Australia and right around the world. </p>
<p>Some <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-06/wa-government-standing-by-shark-cull-after-protest/5185802">4000 people rallied at Perth’s Cottesloe Beach</a> in January, while a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-01/shark-protests-wa-catch-and-kill-perth/5232480">nationwide series of demonstrations on February 1</a> drew about 6000 people to Cottesloe, with an estimated 2000 in Sydney and thousands more elsewhere.</p>
<p>Scientists around the world have spoken out about the <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/australian-shark-cull-plan-draws-scientists-ire-1.14373">unproven effectiveness</a> of the approach and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-sharks-why-size-and-species-matter-22535">toll on marine ecosystems</a> of removing high-level predators.</p>
<p>Even relatives and friends of those killed and injured by sharks have <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/shark-victims-mother-takes-court-action-against-shark-cull-20140226-33hfx.html">joined the campaign against the cull</a>.</p>
<h2>Ocean-goers regularly meet sharks…</h2>
<p>Many people have a view on the shark cull. Our research is focused on people who spend lots of time in or on the ocean, and are therefore the most likely people to encounter sharks. </p>
<p>As part of an ongoing project we <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00049182.2014.899023#.U2MmgK2SzWZ">carried out an online survey</a> of 557 WA ocean users, including surfers, board-riders, divers, snorkellers, swimmers, paddlers, fishers and surf lifesavers.</p>
<p>Our survey asked questions around four themes: people’s ocean use; whether they have encountered sharks; their attitudes and practices towards using the ocean given the existence of sharks; and their views on shark management and shark hazard reduction.</p>
<p>The results show that ocean users regularly see sharks. Of the respondents who answered this question, 69% had encountered a shark while undertaking ocean activities. “Encounter” here includes spotting from a distance, seeing at close range, and in some instances even physical contact. The range of species is broad, but includes the three target species. Of the 258 respondents who could confidently identify the species they met, 54% reported encounters with tiger sharks, 23% with white sharks, and 20% with bull sharks.</p>
<p>What’s more, most of these shark encounters – including with the three species considered to pose <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/topics/marine/marine-species/sharks">potential danger to people</a> – passed off without incident or injury. In other words, the presence of sharks does not necessarily equate to danger to people. </p>
<h2>…but still oppose killing</h2>
<p>The majority of respondents oppose hazard-reduction strategies that involve killing sharks. From a list of strategies we compiled from the WA government, marine scientists, ocean-user groups and the media, the most strongly opposed strategies were (in order):</p>
<ul>
<li><p>baited drum lines</p></li>
<li><p>culling species identified as posing a threat to humans</p></li>
<li><p>wider use of shark nets</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In contrast, the most strongly supported strategies were:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>improving public education about sharks</p></li>
<li><p>encouraging ocean users to accepts the risks</p></li>
<li><p>increasing warning systems</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The WA government’s cull is thus in direct opposition to the preferences of the majority of ocean users.</p>
<p>Importantly, the most strongly supported strategies relate to improving understanding and awareness of sharks, and people altering their own behaviour and practices in the ocean.</p>
<h2>What next for Australian shark management?</h2>
<p>As the debate continues, and the environmental impact assessment process begins, we argue that the experiences and views of ocean users provides an important source of information and should be taken into account. </p>
<p>Further, these and related findings should inform a new discussion about how we manage shark hazard in other parts of the country, <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-queensland-really-saved-lives-by-killing-thousands-of-sharks-23437">such as Queensland</a> and New South Wales, where kill-based strategies have been in place for decades.</p>
<p>Our ongoing work shows that people who use the ocean regularly are strongly supportive of learning more about shark behaviour and ecology through further research. To avoid unwanted encounters, many people pay careful attention to ocean conditions, avoiding times when visibility is poor and staying away from places where food sources are present, like seal colonies and schools of bait fish. </p>
<p>A better public understanding of sharks’ migration, breeding and feeding patterns will help ocean users and beachgoers to feel more confident doing the things they love: being in the water.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The end of April marks the end of Western Australia’s shark cull – for now at least. Since January 25, dozens of sharks (the WA government has not yet released official figures) have been killed off popular…Leah Gibbs, Senior Lecturer in Geography, University of WollongongAndrew Warren, Lecturer in Geography and Planning, University of New EnglandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/184782013-09-23T03:54:16Z2013-09-23T03:54:16ZGST rebuff and credit downgrade add to Barnett’s annus horribilis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31762/original/tkkws87t-1379903350.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Despite his electoral success earlier this year, WA premier Colin Barnett has suffered a string of economic blows - the latest being a credit rating downgrade and the rejection of his proposed raise in the GST.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Theron Kirkman</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>2013 hasn’t been a good year for Western Australian premier Colin Barnett. Standard and Poor’s <a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/9/18/australian-news/wa-loses-triple-credit-rating">recent downgrade</a> of his government’s credit rating continues a pattern. It is not an aberration.</p>
<p>Barnett’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-20/colin-barnett-calls-on-tony-abbott-to-increase-gst/4970024">repeated calls</a> in recent days for an increase in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) were <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-news/tony-abbott-stands-firm-on-gst-as-wa-premier-colin-barnett-pushes-for-increase/story-fncynjr2-1226723947645">promptly quashed</a> by a spokesman for prime minister Tony Abbott.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There will be no change to the GST, full stop, end of story.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And let’s be clear about this: at no stage during the recent federal election did Tony Abbott suggest that the system for distributing GST funding would be revised to ensure that WA got a bigger share of GST revenues. So anyone expecting that the problem will be fixed through increased GST funding is fooling themselves.</p>
<p>The downgrade is undoubtedly the worst of the calamities that have befallen Barnett’s government, not just because it points to ongoing problems for the state’s finances. This is not just about the extra A$20 million a year it will cost to raise money. It is about declining revenues from mining royalties and ongoing problems with meeting the infrastructure needs of a growing population.</p>
<p>The most troubling aspect of Standard and Poor’s downgrading for Barnett, though, is that it was based on the view that he and his government had limited political will when it came to returning the budget to surplus. This undoubtedly reflects the fact that Barnett had to reverse two measures that would have saved over $170 million in this year’s budget.</p>
<p>The more embarrassing <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/colin-barnett-backs-down-over-solar-panels-20130812-2rrkq.html">reversal</a> involved not retrospectively cutting rebates to solar power users who returned energy to the grid. Reducing rebates that induced people to install systems after the event just seemed wrong to everyone.</p>
<p>The more interesting aspect of the downgrading is that it reveals Barnett’s deep inconsistency. On one hand, he promotes his government as a sound economic manager. This means they balance their budgets. He has even said that he will <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/budget_crunch_hits_boom_state_oE89ZO6JsRHRDEAH8W2QIM">not preside</a> over a government that delivers a deficit budget.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Barnett promotes his government (and particularly himself) as a champion of development. This requires government investment in infrastructure. When your revenues are falling, that means going into deficit.</p>
<p>Standard and Poor have not revealed some minor problem. They have pointed to a continuing headache for Barnett, and for Abbott, as Barnett will have to blame someone else for the problems.</p>
<p>If only it wasn’t just another in a series of problems Barnett has had to face this year. The year started quite well for Colin Barnett. He led the Coalition to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-election-barnett-and-the-liberals-do-it-easy-12470">decisive election win</a>. The Liberals even won enough seats to govern in their own right, though they were never going to do so. But the win wasn’t as big as it might have been. I was amongst those who thought that this was a result of Barnett’s lacklustre performance during the election. Journalists were even calling his office to see whether he was sick.</p>
<p>Barnett had only been in office a month when Woodside decided <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/woodside-will-not-go-ahead-with-an-lng-processing-plant-at-james-price-point/story-fnhocxo3-1226618536271">not to go ahead</a> with a gas processing hub at James Price Point. Barnett had pushed very hard for this development. It deeply - perhaps permanently - divided the local community and offended environmentalists around the state.</p>
<p>Barnett accused Woodside of letting people down, though Woodside had never formally committed to developing the site. It was for Barnett and not for Woodside that the project had to go ahead. The project’s demise was not a good “look” for champions of development.</p>
<p>Then the Oakajee Port development <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-14/oakajee-port-and-rail-project-suspended/4754986">was suspended</a> in June. This was mainly a private development, but the government had invested plenty in it, both in money and reputation.</p>
<p>After that, the Barnett government had to admit that it had wasted over $250 million trying to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-25/work-on-muja-power-station-suspended/4779722">rejuvenate the Muja power station</a> near Collie in southwest Western Australia. It turns out that corrosion in the piping has always been so bad that the station will never operate at full capacity.</p>
<p>Barnett remains secure, but mostly because he lacks legitimate challengers within the Liberal Party. Christian Porter’s <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/peace-christian-porters-federal-gamble-pays-off/story-fnhocq8b-1226714504468">move into the federal sphere</a> took Barnett’s obvious successor out of state politics. Kim Hames is deputy premier and an obvious contender. The fallout from his <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-22/barnett-announces-hames-resigning-as-tourism-minister/4835916">resignation as tourism minister</a> - due to (minor) problems with his claims for ministerial travel allowances - is yet to clear, though. The time may even come when Troy Buswell stops ruling himself out as a potential leader of the party.</p>
<p>Few people will be cheering louder for Fremantle in this weekend’s AFL Grand Final than Colin Barnett. Not because he is a dyed-in-the-wool Freo supporter (he seems more of an Eagles fan to me), but because he needs something to go his way in Western Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/18478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>2013 hasn’t been a good year for Western Australian premier Colin Barnett. Standard and Poor’s recent downgrade of his government’s credit rating continues a pattern. It is not an aberration. Barnett’s…Ian Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics , Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/124702013-03-10T01:34:26Z2013-03-10T01:34:26ZWA election: Barnett and the Liberals do it easy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21109/original/vmbthkjb-1362876833.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Colin Barnett and his wife Lyn celebrate the Liberal party’s crushing win the Western Australian state election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tony McDonough</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nobody thought that Labor would form government in Western Australia after the 2013 election.</p>
<p>And with the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2013/">current seat count</a> at 30 for Colin Barnett’s Liberals, 18 for Labor and 6 for the Nationals, it is very clear they have not.</p>
<p>Most pundits believed that the Liberals would win the 30 seats they needed to govern without the support of the Nationals.
But many observers also felt that Labor opposition leader Mark McGowan had shown enough during the campaign - and Colin Barnett sufficiently underperformed - to produce a closer result.</p>
<p>They Liberals ran a good, but not great, campaign. Colin Barnett has never been a particularly effective public performer. He’s not quick enough on his feet in interviews and lacks the passion and rhetorical skill of a powerful orator. But he was even less impressive during this campaign than I’d expected. I understand why one of his minders phoned The West Australian and put the Premier on the line to deny rumours that he was ill or tired.</p>
<p>But Barnett wisely played to his strengths: an ability to put himself at the centre of a pro-development, big infrastructure government that would fight for WA against the wildly unpopular Gillard government. He was, at best, solid and his Liberal colleagues well muzzled - none going “off message.”</p>
<p>Colin Barnett led a first term government, and they are usually re-elected in Australia. Yet, it was a minority government, so seats had to be won if he was to form a government in his own right. And more than enough of these seats have been won. It may not have been spectacular, but the job has been more than done.</p>
<p>The result puts Labor two terms away from a return to government, and even that will require work. It will be an extremely hard slog, and one that McGowan is unlikely to survive. It’s just too long for any politician to last in what will be a very difficult position.</p>
<p>The WA Labor leadership will have to think carefully about how they are going to be effective with the limited number of hands they’ll have on the parliamentary deck. More importantly, they have to show that they are serious about renewal.</p>
<p>The Nationals, though, are in the most interesting position after this election. Brendon Grylls was in an extremely powerful position after the last election and forced the Liberals to accept the Royalties for Regions agreement (which sequesters 25% of mining royalties for spending on projects in regional Western Australia).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21111/original/pvtvpn92-1362878844.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21111/original/pvtvpn92-1362878844.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21111/original/pvtvpn92-1362878844.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21111/original/pvtvpn92-1362878844.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21111/original/pvtvpn92-1362878844.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21111/original/pvtvpn92-1362878844.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21111/original/pvtvpn92-1362878844.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The “Superpit” open cut gold mine outside Kalgoorlie. Mining intensive Western Australia has voted overwhelmingly in favour of the the conservative parties.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Kim Christian</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now the Liberals don’t need their support. They are very likely to take it, though, and Grylls has to accept what he can get. He no longer has the whip hand. </p>
<p>The alternative is to lose control of the Royalties for Regions (RfR) program. RfR is supposed to provide funds in addition to the normal - that is, through the budget - funding of infrastructure in regional WA. This opens up the question of what is normal funding is. The Nationals see themselves as the custodians of RfR so they need to make sure that RfR is in addition to normal spending and they can’t do that from outside Cabinet.</p>
<p>The election may signal the end of Grylls’s attempt to position the Nationals as an independent voice for regional WA. This will be very difficult for him. He was so passionate about repositioning the Nationals that he even considered, if only for a short time, supporting a minority Labor government in 2008. This horrified his federal National Party colleagues, who pressured him to support a Barnett government.</p>
<p>At a federal level, the message is very clear. A lot of West Australians don’t like federal Labor. Well, they don’t like Labor, but they really don’t like federal Labor. So, WA will be bad for Labor come September 14. Very bad.</p>
<p>There is not enough time and Colin Barnett is no Ted Baillieu, so federal Labor can’t expect any help from a dysfunctional Liberal Party in WA. But they will hope but the reality is that is all they can do.</p>
<p>And for the Greens the picture is even bleaker than for Labor. With a swing against them of 4% and the loss of their only seat, the party is in serious disarray.</p>
<p>No independents were elected, and I suspect that independents will not do well in the federal election come September. But the fate of the independents in WA this time around was not a surprise. </p>
<p>The retirement of two high profile independents, Liz Constable and John Bowler, meant that their seats were going to go back to the major parties. And Adele Carles was destined to lose her seat. The collapse of Janet Woollard’s vote might be of concern to independents everywhere too.</p>
<p>The message from WA is clear. Australia’s largest state, and the engine room of the nation’s prosperity in many regards, is solidly conservative.</p>
<p>Tony Abbott will be smiling today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12470/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Cook has no links to a political party</span></em></p>Nobody thought that Labor would form government in Western Australia after the 2013 election. And with the current seat count at 30 for Colin Barnett’s Liberals, 18 for Labor and 6 for the Nationals, it…Ian Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics , Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/126452013-03-07T19:42:42Z2013-03-07T19:42:42ZWA election: Barnett should win but not all lost for Labor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21057/original/rntdqkvt-1362626188.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Colin Barnett led Coalition is set to retain government in Western Australia, but Labor under Mark McGowan has shown encouraging signs for the future.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tony McDonough/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Putting your finger on the pulse of the WA public can be difficult at times. Even the day before an election.</p>
<p>While the nation swims in federal polls, at a state level, survey data of Western Australians is limited. News Poll surveys occur quarterly, while WA’s single daily, <em>The West Australian</em>, produces a Westpoll only <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/10/19/westpoll-53-47-to-liberal-in-wa/">occasionally</a>.</p>
<p>If a week is a long time in politics, three months is an eternity, and so events we would expect to influence polls pass through the voters’ attention before their views can be recorded. The result is that it is difficult to identify trends in voter sentiment. </p>
<p>While fortnightly polling is not the answer, surveying the electorate every six weeks would meet the <a href="http://21stcenturyscholar.org/2012/07/25/the-goldilocks-principle/">Goldilocks principle</a>, recording issues resonating with the public, yet being infrequent enough to prevent poll fatigue and ensure that sentiment is not driven by recent results.</p>
<h2>A low intensity election</h2>
<p>The 2013 election campaign has been largely low key. Perhaps that reflects the widely held view - backed by all polls - that incumbent Barnett government should be returned comfortably. </p>
<p>It’s been a <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/state-election-2013/leaders-presidential-campaign-has-little-effect-on-voters-20130306-2fkrj.html">leader led campaign</a> from both the <a href="http://www.markmcgowan.com.au/">Labor</a> and <a href="http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/">Liberal</a> parties, to the point where most people would struggle to name more than two or three additional cabinet/shadow cabinet members.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21061/original/nnrdgskw-1362628015.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21061/original/nnrdgskw-1362628015.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21061/original/nnrdgskw-1362628015.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21061/original/nnrdgskw-1362628015.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21061/original/nnrdgskw-1362628015.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21061/original/nnrdgskw-1362628015.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21061/original/nnrdgskw-1362628015.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Western Australia Premier Colin Barnett is set to win another term in office in this weekend’s elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Porritt/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Neither major party has provided an overarching narrative. Labor has campaigned on fixing Perth’s <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/16312858/early-horror-run-for-motorists/">congestion</a> crisis with <a href="http://www.markmcgowan.com.au/metronet">Metronet</a> and bringing down the cost of living. </p>
<p>The Liberals have focused on <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/labor-soft-on-crime-and-economic-risk-barnett/story-e6frg13u-1226591636469">being tough on crime</a> and big city projects such as Elizabeth Quay and the Burswood Stadium. </p>
<p>Meanwhile the <a href="http://www.nationalswa.com/">Nationals</a>, who currently hold the balance of power in the parliament, campaign on the success of their Royalties for Regions platform, and the <a href="wa.greens.org.au/">Greens</a> focus on transport, the environment and social issues.</p>
<h2>Industrial problems for Barnett</h2>
<p>Industrial relations threatened to become a major issue when the Premier conceded to the <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/16219064/nurse-get-14pc-pay-rise/">demands of nurses</a> and agreed to a 14% pay rise over three years. </p>
<p>This backdown led to prison officers undertaking industrial action and demanding the same pay increase, causing the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-01/prison-officers-walk-off-the-job/4547002">Treasurer to announce</a> “If anyone else thinks that they can hold us to ransom in the way the nurses union did, they’ve got another thing coming”.</p>
<p>In addition, the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-06/more-unionists-meet-to-consider-action/4557240">Public Sector Union</a> announced it was considering industrial action over the issue of job cuts. However, like most other issues in this election, IR doesn’t appear to have gained much traction.</p>
<h2>Labor in trouble but Buswell attack stings</h2>
<p>The ABC reported on Tuesday that internal Labor polling suggested a 5% swing to the Government, which would lead to a loss of eight seats to the Liberals. </p>
<p>On Thursday, bookmakers announced odds on Labor had moved out to <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/barnett-accuses-labor-of-grubby-campaign/story-fn3dxiwe-1226591861250">14 to 1</a>. It has been suggested that a swing of this level will largely be the result of the poor standing of Labor at a federal level. </p>
<p>The Liberals have capitalised on the negative perceptions of the Gillard Government, running a group of negative ads with a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLwn0HT7RN4">“Labor’s a mess”</a> theme, and a controversial <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/02/27/tips-and-rumours-827/">border protection</a> ad. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21062/original/wz6h36w2-1362628199.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21062/original/wz6h36w2-1362628199.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21062/original/wz6h36w2-1362628199.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21062/original/wz6h36w2-1362628199.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21062/original/wz6h36w2-1362628199.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21062/original/wz6h36w2-1362628199.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21062/original/wz6h36w2-1362628199.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Opposition leader Mark McGowan and his Labor party will be satisfied with their campaign and looking forward to the 2017 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rebecca Le May/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Assuming there isn’t a uniform swing to the Government, the late focus on Premier Barnett’s age, health and a possible <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/16302796/im-not-sick-barnett/">Kirribilli style deal</a> with Troy Buswell may impact upon the 30 percent of voters claiming to be <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/liberals-target-vulnerable-labor-seats-in-11th-hour/story-e6freuy9-1226589146416">undecided</a>. </p>
<p>Labor may also point to the resignation of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-07/no-blood-on-the-floor-says-napthine-after-baillieu-resignation/4557844">Ted Baillieu</a> as an example of what could happen if Barnett resigns mid-term, although Buswell has declared he will “<a href="http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/article/I-will-never-be-Premier-Buswell?utm_source=DBA&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_click">never be Premier</a>”.</p>
<h2>The key seats</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/FRE/profile">Fremantle</a>, won by the Greens at the last election should return to Labor, following Adele Carles’ relationship with Troy Buswell, which led to her <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/adele-carles-quits-greens-20100507-uhe3.html">leaving the Greens</a>. </p>
<p>The Greens were seriously damaged by Carles, and are likely to suffer in the <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/02/2013-wa-election-green-prospects-and-analysis-of-the-legislative-council.html">upper house</a> as well, coming off a strong performance at the last election.</p>
<p>Following a redistribution, <a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/MOR/profile">Morley</a> (created in 2008 largely from the seat of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Ballajura">Ballajura</a>), is expected the return to Labor. The seat was lost at the last election when former Labor MP John D’Orazio, now deceased, ran as an independent, after failing to gain pre-selection, in part as a result of a <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/dorazio-resigns-to-run-as-independent-20080626-2xc0.html">Corruption and Crime Commission investigation</a>. </p>
<p>Labor candidate Reece Whitby, a former Channel 7 reporter, is re-contesting the seat after being part of Alan Carpenter’s controversial hand-picked team of candidates in 2008.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/MTL/profile">Mt Lawley</a> could yet go either way. Sitting Liberal MP Michael Sutherland has heavily advertised throughout the electorate for the past four years. However, after being dis-endorsed by <a href="http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/user?destination=node/65415">Carpenter</a>, popular former Labor Minister Bob Kucera will pose a significant challenge.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/SWN/profile">Swan Hills</a> is also an electorate to watch. Currently held by the Liberals, the seat includes Ellenbrook, the destination of the <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/busted-how-ellenbrook-train-line-derailed-20090803-e6y0.html">“broken promise railway”</a> from the 2009 election. </p>
<p>The Premier has also made it clear the <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/16294621/wheels-fall-off-libs-ellenbrook-bus-plan/">rapid bus transit service</a> that had been anticipated will not be delivered. Labor candidate Ian Radisich is the brother of former member Jaye Radisich who held the seat for two terms before retiring at the last election. Ms Radisich, the youngest woman elected to the Legislative Assembly, passed away from cancer in early 2012. The Radisich family retain strong connections to the area which may assist Labor.</p>
<p>The Liberal party is expected to pick up two seats currently held by Liberal leaning independents. In the seat of <a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/CHU/profile">Churchlands</a>, former Cabinet Minister Liz Constable is retiring, while Janet Woolard, is likely to lose in <a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/ALF/profile">Alfred Cove</a> due to a combination of the latest redistribution, Labor preferencing her last, and the negative publicity she received as a result of her <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/woollard-settles-sons-250k-boat-crash-civil-action-with-victim-kate-campbell/story-e6frg6nf-1226387367873">son’s boating accident</a>.</p>
<p>If the <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/western_australia_elections_and_politics/">swing towards the government</a> predicted by the polls materialises, expect to see the Liberals pick up <a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/FOR/profile">Forrestfield</a> and <a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/ALB/profile">Albany</a>, as well as <a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/BAC/profile">Balcatta</a>, where Labor member John Kobelke is retiring. </p>
<p>The Nationals are expected to pick up the former safe Labor seat of <a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/KAL/profile">Kalgoorlie</a> currently held by former Labor Cabinet Minister, turned independent, John Bowler, who is not re-contesting the seat. </p>
<p>National Leader <a href="https://theconversation.com/brendon-grylls-risks-all-in-battle-for-the-pilbara-12036">Brendon Grylls</a>, has given up his safe seat of <a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/CEW/profile">Central Wheatbelt</a> to contest the Labor held <a href="http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/vote/profile/sg2013/electorate/PIL/profile">Pilbara</a>. Given the popularity of the National’s Royalties for Regions policy in rural and remote areas, Grylls can feel entitled to be confident.</p>
<h2>Four more years for everyone?</h2>
<p>Nothing in politics is ever certain, but it appears Colin Barnett and the Coalition will retain government on Saturday.</p>
<p>Mark McGowan has proven an adept campaigner and Labor will take heart from its efforts in this campaign, especially given the drag created by their federal cousins and the fact that they are battling a first term government. </p>
<p>Given his performance since taking over from Eric Ripper, we would expect that McGowan will continue on as Labor leader in the event of a Liberal victory. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12645/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Putting your finger on the pulse of the WA public can be difficult at times. Even the day before an election. While the nation swims in federal polls, at a state level, survey data of Western Australians…Natalie Mast, Senior Policy Analyst, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/125982013-03-04T19:32:44Z2013-03-04T19:32:44ZWestern Australian election: all over bar the voting?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20846/original/vzgxhqgr-1362356761.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Western Australians are heading to the polls this Saturday, but it looks likely Premier Colin Barnett will be in for a second term.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Porritt/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Western Australian’s prepare to head to the polls this Saturday, where do the parties stand ahead of the state election? </p>
<p>Opinion polls published since January have the Liberal and National alliance in Western Australia polling between 56% and 59% of the two party preferred <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/colin-barnett-tipped-to-reign-once-again/story-e6frg13u-1226584422323">vote</a>, suggesting a thumping win for Colin Barnett’s government on March 9.</p>
<p>Newspoll showed 59% of those polled thought the alliance would win, compared to just 25% who predicted a Labor <a href="http://polling.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/130223%20WA%20Election%20-%20Survey%20One.pdf">victory</a>. Even the <a href="http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/wa-politics/Western-Australian-State-Election-203399.html">bookmakers</a> have the Liberals at amazing short odds for a two-horse race, with Barnett at $1.01 compared to Labor’s Mark McGowan at $13.00.</p>
<p>So, is the Western Australian election all over bar the voting?</p>
<p>The Liberals have the past and present in their favour. Only two first-term governments have lost an election in WA since the First World War – in 1933 and 1974. The state’s resource-based economy is booming with high rates of economic growth, jobs and incomes.</p>
<p>The federal government is a major drag on state Labor. Federal Labor won barely 31% of the primary vote in Western Australia in 2010 and things are unlikely to have improved with the carbon tax issue and heated arguments over the distribution of GST revenues. Federal ministers (including the Prime Minister) have reportedly been told to stay out of WA during the election <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/special-features/gillard-told-keep-out-of-wa/story-fnh06byc-1226584250966">campaign</a>, and McGowan has publicly stated his opposition to the carbon <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/state-election-2013/wa-labor-leader-against-carbon-tax-20130211-2e7i7.html">tax</a>.</p>
<p>Despite this, there are still a few things worth noting.</p>
<p>The first is basic electoral arithmetic. It is often forgotten that Barnett leads a minority government, with only 24 Liberal members in a 59 seat parliament, and governs with the support of Nationals and independents. After an electoral redistribution, Labor holds a notional 27 seats and is expected to regain the seat of Fremantle lost to the Greens in a by-election. In theory, if Labor can hold its existing seats and win just two seats off the Liberals or Nationals, it could win government.</p>
<p>Labor has given itself a chance by choosing well-respected local candidates in at least three Liberal-held seats: Mount Lawley (where Labor needs a 1.7% swing), where popular former member Bob Kucera – who was controversially dumped by Premier Alan Carpenter at the 2008 election – is re-contesting; Riverton (2.0%), where Hannah Beazley, daughter of former federal Labor leader Kim Beazley, is the Labor candidate; and Swan Hills (3.5%), where Ian Radisich, the brother of the late Labor MP for the electorate, is running in a seat where the Liberal MP is under pressure over an unmet promise from the last election to build a railway line to his electorate.</p>
<p>But, even if Labor can win two of these, its chances of retaining all its other seats appear slim, especially in regional Western Australia where four Labor seats are under pressure from the Nationals, buoyed by the popularity of their Royalties for Regions <a>program</a>. In metropolitan Perth, there are at least four other seats vulnerable to a Liberal swing of less than 3.5%.</p>
<p>Second, the leadership contest has been a contrast of styles, with Barnett channelling former Premier Sir Charles Court with his “big picture” visions for the <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/an-audience-with-the-emperor-20130202-2drhv.html">state</a> compared to McGowan’s image of suburban ordinariness.</p>
<p>Barnett has been vulnerable to accusations of arrogance and of running a one-man show since his former Treasurer, Christian Porter, resigned to contest the next federal <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2012/s3523280.htm">election</a>. Barnett prides himself on his decisiveness and no-nonsense style, but this has on occasions got him into trouble with ill-disciplined media <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/15851743/lighten-up-barnett-tells-fact-fussy-listeners/">comments</a> and tetchiness in the heat of an election <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/state-election-2013/the-return-of-cantankerous-canal-colin-20130227-2f53o.html">campaign</a>. By contrast, Labor leader Mark McGowan has generally performed well and his rating as preferred Premier has risen to be only four points behind <a href="http://polling.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/130223%20WA%20Election%20-%20Survey%20One.pdf">Barnett</a>.</p>
<p>Thirdly, Labor has made the running in the election campaign through <a href="http://theconversation.com/ring-around-the-rail-in-the-western-australian-election-12156">Metronet</a>, its rail plan aimed at linking Perth’s middle and outer suburbs and the airport. With the population growing rapidly, congestion has become a major concern and Labor is hoping to capitalise on its reputation as the party which built the Joondalup and Mandurah rail lines when in government. </p>
<p>The plan has the added benefit for Labor of running through several marginal electorates and of putting the Treasurer and Transport Minister, Troy Buswell, in the media spotlight. Buswell has been plagued by personal <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/adele-carles-hits-out-at-jilted-lover-claim-and-says-buswell-has-issues/story-e6frg13u-1226534402023%22%22">problems</a> and polls have indicated that he may pull down the Liberal <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/troy-buswell-a-big-turn-off-to-voters/story-e6frg6n6-1226584425152">vote</a>.</p>
<p>Buswell and the government have retaliated by attacking Labor’s Metronet costings and questioning the location of their proposed airport <a href="http://cached.newslookup.com/cached.php?siteid=2102&id=1433934&t=1360898070">station</a>. A Treasury assessment released on <a href="http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/uploadedFiles/_Treasury/State_finances/treasury_metronet_costing.pdf">Friday</a> came in at $5.2 billion over eight years – above Labor’s estimated $3.8 billion but below the government’s estimate of $6.4 <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/top-stories/wa-election-costings-row-escalates-labor-attack-buswell-over-federal-help/story-e6frg12l-1226588651379">billion</a>. </p>
<p>The waters were muddied further when Buswell conceded that the Liberals’ three key transport initiatives will require the federal government to provide at least half the <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-election-costings-row-escalates-20130301-2fbk0.html">funds</a>, whereas Labor has itemised specific cost savings by making (controversial) decisions to defer or amend other capital works to help pay for <a href="http://www.markmcgowan.com.au/news/wa-labor-makes-tough-decisions-to-pay-for-metronet-329">Metronet</a>.</p>
<p>With Labor’s transport showpiece under fire, the electoral tide appears to be coming in for <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/full-coverage/state-election-2013/a/-/article/16249176/labor-tracking-predicts-rout/">Barnett</a> . Factors such as federal Labor’s unpopularity, a booming state economy, and being a first-term government, appear likely to outweigh any tactical victories Labor and McGowan may have won in the leadership stakes and election campaign, unless something unforeseen happens in the next few days.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Phillimore has previously worked as an advisor to state Labor governments.</span></em></p>As Western Australian’s prepare to head to the polls this Saturday, where do the parties stand ahead of the state election? Opinion polls published since January have the Liberal and National alliance…John Phillimore, Executive Director, John Curtin Institute for Public Policy, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/123212013-02-20T00:50:01Z2013-02-20T00:50:01ZWA elections: McGowan wins debate, but damage to Barnett is minimal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20430/original/4kq7bqy2-1361317526.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Labor leader Mark McGowan has been widely seen as the winner of last night's debate ahead of the WA state election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABC News</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Watching a political debate without the assistance of the worm can be difficult. Thankfully we have Twitter to provide us with indicators of the audience’s views. Even more useful is when party members start commenting. You know things aren’t going well when an MP, federal in this case, starts complaining about <a href="https://twitter.com/MathiasCormann/status/303837747569893376">ABC bias</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The #ABC has some serious explaining to do about the shockingly low quality and uneven nature of the WA campaign debate broadcast! <a href="https://twitter.com/MathiasCormann">@MathiasCormann</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Labor leader Mark McGowan appeared well prepared for his only opportunity to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-20/barnett-and-mcgowan-face-off-in-the-leaders-debate/4528842">debate the Premier</a> in the lead-up to the March 9 election. While Colin Barnett elected to face the panel and the audience sitting in the room, McGowan looked straight down the camera when answering his questions. This distinction led to Barnett looking distant, even unengaged, with his attention to the side of the camera, while McGowan appeared focused, speaking to the wider TV audience. The moderator, ABC newsreader James McHale, kindly suggested Barnett face the camera when delivering his final comments.</p>
<p>McGowan brought a number set pieces along to the debate, including the sound bite “Perth’s congestion crisis”, which is likely ringing true to anyone who has tried <a href="http://standards.mainroads.wa.gov.au/NR/mrwa/internet/realtime/TRC/RegionalConditions.asp?7">moving through the city</a> during peak hour this week. The Labor campaign is built around <a href="http://www.markmcgowan.com.au/metronet">METRONET</a>, a significant expansion of the Perth rail system, with a very London Underground looking map. So, in addition to highlighting his proposals, McGowan was also keen to stress Barnett’s <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/busted-how-ellenbrook-train-line-derailed-20090803-e6y0.html">broken promise</a> to extend the rail system to the outer suburb of Ellenbrook.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20423/original/cdhk2wpr-1361315378.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20423/original/cdhk2wpr-1361315378.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/20423/original/cdhk2wpr-1361315378.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/20423/original/cdhk2wpr-1361315378.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/20423/original/cdhk2wpr-1361315378.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/20423/original/cdhk2wpr-1361315378.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/20423/original/cdhk2wpr-1361315378.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor leader Mark McGowan says its METRONET rail proposal plan will connect Perth’s suburbs by rail and solve congestion problems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rebecca Le May</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The panel’s surprisingly tough questions, which included interjections when the candidates went off-track, focused on infrastructure, state debt, cost of living, law and order and ministerial integrity. I assume I wasn’t the only person who guffawed at Barnett’s description of Treasurer Troy Buswell (yes, the chair sniffer) as “<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/wa-premier-defends-buswell-in-debate/story-fn3dxiwe-1226581506821">accident prone</a>”. Regardless of Buswell’s talent as a Minister, McGowan would have hit the mark with many viewers when he pointed out that the behaviour exhibited by the Treasurer would have seen him dismissed rather than promoted in any other workplace environment. Further, the Premier completely ignored the “what message does it send to women” aspect of the question.</p>
<p>It wasn’t all smooth sailing for McGowan. In an effort not to cede the “tough on crime” mantle to the Premier, he refused to engage on the issue of mandatory sentencing, which may be popular with the average punter, but is not widely regarded as a viable solution to the issue of crime. Interestingly, McGowan only belatedly mentioned Sunday’s announcement of a sentencing council, which has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-18/wa-lawyers-welcome-labor27s-justice-policy/4524700?section=wa">received some support</a> within the legal community.</p>
<p>McGowan was also repeatedly asked how he would reduce the significant level of state debt, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-18/review-warns-wa-needs-to-slow-down-debt/4525534">approximately $18 billion</a>, with $14 billion accrued over the term of the Barnett government. Other than “living within our means” it appears not a lot of thought has been put into bringing the level of debt down. When questioned, the Premier declared that debt would not be growing at the same rate over the next four years, but admitted it was unlikely to return to the level left by the Carpenter government.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20424/original/mvcs98n2-1361315617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20424/original/mvcs98n2-1361315617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/20424/original/mvcs98n2-1361315617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/20424/original/mvcs98n2-1361315617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/20424/original/mvcs98n2-1361315617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/20424/original/mvcs98n2-1361315617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/20424/original/mvcs98n2-1361315617.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Premier Colin Barnett highlighted the importance of the diversifying the future of the state’s economy and relationship with Asia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rebecca Le May/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Large increases in utility prices during the last four years have been an on-going issue with Western Australian voters. Previous governments had kept prices artificially low, and under the Barnett government electricity prices have <a href="http://www.westernpower.com.au/aboutus/save_electricity/The_price_of_power_.html">risen by 62%</a>. When questioned, Barnett denied that electricity prices would rise another 25% over the next four years, indicating that prices would generally rise in line with inflation. In many respects the worst of the pain is over when it comes to utility price increases, but McGowan is promising relief through the removal of the seven percent <a href="http://www.markmcgowan.com.au/news/household-power-bills-to-be-7-per-cent-lower-under-wa-labor-96">Tariff Equalisation Contribution levy</a>. </p>
<p>With the benefit of incumbency, Barnett adopted a statesman like approach during his introductory and concluding statements, focusing on Western Australia’s importance to the region and his willingness to take on Canberra. McGowan chose a more local persona, highlighting his young family, and claiming to be in touch with the Western Australian community. He also capitalised on a member of the panel questioning Barnett on his perceived arrogance, providing a list of examples, including Barnett’s 2010 claim that <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/airconditioners-not-necessary-in-perth-barnett-20101123-185gk.html">air-conditioning wasn’t necessary</a> in Perth, which an easier argument to make when you live in a leafy seaside suburb.</p>
<p>While McGowan <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/mark-mcgowan-wins-the-night-but-only-just/story-fndo4e3y-1226581532948">won the night</a>, and certainly presented himself as a credible alternative leader, Barnett’s performance was sound enough to ensure that he won’t suffer a negative turn in the eyes of the electorate similar to his 2005 “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/wa/stories/s1296134.htm">canal at any price</a>” debacle.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12321/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Watching a political debate without the assistance of the worm can be difficult. Thankfully we have Twitter to provide us with indicators of the audience’s views. Even more useful is when party members…Natalie Mast, Senior Policy Analyst, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/118612013-02-04T03:27:56Z2013-02-04T03:27:56ZWestern Australia: two elections for the price of two<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19818/original/rw8xn7w9-1359935625.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Western Australians are heading to the polls twice this year.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jay-Oh</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If the thought of one election campaign is your worst nightmare, then pity the West Australians. When Julia Gillard announced a September federal election it meant two campaigns being run simultaneously in the country’s largest state.</p>
<p>It’s Labor versus the Liberals and Nationals, of course, so the names remain the same. But that may be the problem. It’s never been that easy to separate state and federal election issues and it’s going to get a lot harder for West Australians.</p>
<p>There are some clear “state” issues like whether Colin Barnett’s Liberal government will be tougher on crime than Mark McGowan’s Labor claims it will be. Law and order is “bread and butter” in a state election campaign. </p>
<p>And states’ rights isn’t something that will play out at a federal level, though Tony Abbott may express some level of support for a devolution of power from Canberra, a move that would aid his state Liberal colleague in Barnett given the level of dissatisfaction in WA with how GST revenue is distributed by Canberra.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19815/original/zdw7274m-1359934471.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19815/original/zdw7274m-1359934471.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19815/original/zdw7274m-1359934471.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19815/original/zdw7274m-1359934471.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19815/original/zdw7274m-1359934471.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19815/original/zdw7274m-1359934471.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19815/original/zdw7274m-1359934471.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Asylum seekers arriving by boat escorted by Australian navy patrol boats near Christmas Island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Scott Fisher</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott will both be working hard to convince voters during the federal campaign - all seven months of it - that they have a handle on the “problem” of asylum seekers. Immigration, after all, is a federal issue. </p>
<p>Detention centres and their associated issues have the feel of a “local” issue in Western Australia. Similarly, Christmas Island is much closer to Western Australians than it is to everyone else. </p>
<p>But elections are traditionally won and lost on economic management and this is something that will be played out at both levels. </p>
<p>While Gillard’s federal Labor government is having a hard time convincing voters of their economic credentials, WA’s Treasurer Troy Buswell recently announced that the state budget is likely to sink into deficit in the next financial year. This was an interesting turn of events, given that Barnett has said he’ll not lead a government that is in deficit.</p>
<p>The mining tax will feature in both campaigns, as will the carbon tax (very unpopular in this resource rich state) which is a headache for WA Labor, which has been working hard to try to convince voters not to punish the regional son for the sins of the federal father. </p>
<p>So far, they’ve had little success and it may now be impossible. Polling is showing that voters are punishing state Labor for federal Labor’s policies and a federal election occurring simultaneously will make that worse.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19814/original/99ww3dyj-1359933605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19814/original/99ww3dyj-1359933605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19814/original/99ww3dyj-1359933605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19814/original/99ww3dyj-1359933605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19814/original/99ww3dyj-1359933605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19814/original/99ww3dyj-1359933605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19814/original/99ww3dyj-1359933605.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Buccaneer Archipelago off the coast of Western Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">PR/Paul Gamblin</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Environmental issues are playing against Barnett in Western Australia, for those who care. But the federal Labor government hasn’t made a lot of ground on environmental issues in WA either. The marine parks plan was largely well received, but the Gillard government has not proven the saviour that many of those who opposing the gas hub planned for James Price Point had hoped it would be. So Labor might not have done enough to convince voters for whom this is an issue that they care about environmental protection.</p>
<p>Education was once exclusively a state issue, but the development and implementation of national curricula and NAPLAN have made it as much an issue in federal elections; and Gillard has made it very clear that she’ll be making education a federal election issue. So primary and secondary education appear to have morphed into federal issues.</p>
<p>Health is another issue that used to be more important at the state level than at the federal level, but the Gillard government, with its many reforms, appears to also have largely made that a federal level.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19813/original/thb7qqv7-1359933067.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19813/original/thb7qqv7-1359933067.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19813/original/thb7qqv7-1359933067.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19813/original/thb7qqv7-1359933067.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19813/original/thb7qqv7-1359933067.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19813/original/thb7qqv7-1359933067.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19813/original/thb7qqv7-1359933067.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leader of the WA Nationals Brendon Grylls and WA Premier Colin Barnett at Parliament House in Perth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Nicolas Perpitch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One question that arises at the state level for the Nationals is whether Brendon Grylls can keep playing his game of pretending not to be natural coalition partners with the Liberals and try to convince voters that his party isn’t just the regional version of the Liberal Party.</p>
<p>This was always going to be difficult, given that the polls are showing that Barnett’s Liberals will pick up enough seats that the Nationals would have a lot of trouble convincing people it makes sense for them to support a Labor government.</p>
<p>The federal Nationals are not going to look kindly on any game of the proverbial political silly buggers that Grylls might want to play, <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/15703473/nationals-open-to-labor-alliance/">an area where the WA Nationals have some history.</a> </p>
<p>There’s some gap between elections, but once voters get confused they can stay confused for some time. But when they come to vote, it will probably be for parties on the right of politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11861/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If the thought of one election campaign is your worst nightmare, then pity the West Australians. When Julia Gillard announced a September federal election it meant two campaigns being run simultaneously…Ian Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics , Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/86252012-08-03T06:10:37Z2012-08-03T06:10:37ZWestern water dreamers rise again with Colin Barnett’s canal vision<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/13825/original/2fcn79g9-1343969364.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The waters of the Kimberley in Western Australia have long tempted politicians and engineers wanting to make the drier southern regions bloom.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/Koala:Bear</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Settler Australians have a long history of trying to harness the continent’s great rivers to water the dead heart of the country. Schemes such as those of <a href="http://epress.anu.edu.au/anzsog/auc/mobile_devices/ch06s04.html">Bradfield and Idriess</a> in the 1930s and 1940s sought to turn the rivers inland to make the deserts bloom. Michael Cathcart has called a great many of these schemes the imaginings of a nation of “<a href="http://textpublishing.com.au/books-and-authors/book/the-water-dreamers/">water dreamers</a>”. And <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/barnetts-waterway-back-on-was-agenda/story-e6frgczx-1226440715376">Colin Barnett’s resurrection of plans</a> to bring water from the wet northwest to the thirsty metropolis of Perth is just the latest in a long history of water dreaming.</p>
<p>While the eastern seaboard has been dealing with the problem of too much water in recent years, Perth and the greater southwest has continued to experience a steady decline of rainfall. Last month was the driest July on record. Perth’s dams are running low, its suburban groundwater systems are under strain and both seawater desalination plants are operating at full capacity. The Barnett government has already flagged the possibility of harsh water restrictions in summer. It’s not just a case of the rains not falling, but also a product of the state’s booming economy and <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/3218.0%7E2010-11%7EMain+Features%7EWestern+Australia?OpenDocument#PARALINK4">rapidly growing population</a>.</p>
<p>Barnett has been down this road before: as Leader of the Opposition, he announced on the eve of the 2005 state election that a Coalition government would <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2005/weblog/200502/s1295181.htm">build a 3,700 kilometre canal</a> to utilise the vast water resources of the Kimberley for the southwest. Barnett presented the project as an alternative to the Gallop Labor government’s controversial decision to construct a seawater desalination plant instead of tapping the South West Yarragadee aquifer further south.</p>
<p>Then as now, the suburbs of Perth were in the grip of a “water crisis”. Tim Flannery had recently warned Western Australians that Perth could become a “<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/05/18/1084783517732.html">ghost metropolis</a>”. In spite of the popular appeal of the pipeline, the scheme proved to be the undoing of the Coalition during the 2005 electoral campaign. A series of bungled budgets for the project <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Canal-pledge-doesnt-hold-water-for-Liberals/2005/02/04/1107476802800.html">portrayed a poorly prepared Opposition</a> and the Labor government won a second term. Nevertheless, the Barnett government’s recent revival of the plan suggests that water from the Kimberley remains a tantalising prospect in the southwest.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/13826/original/33n3n6fh-1343970020.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/13826/original/33n3n6fh-1343970020.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/13826/original/33n3n6fh-1343970020.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/13826/original/33n3n6fh-1343970020.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/13826/original/33n3n6fh-1343970020.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/13826/original/33n3n6fh-1343970020.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/13826/original/33n3n6fh-1343970020.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Colin Barnett.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In dusting off this project, the Barnett government is tapping into a well of good will about the prospect of bringing water from the north to the suburbs of Perth. This sentiment owes a great deal to the chief proponent of a very similar idea, who has trumpeted his vision since the late 1980s: Ernie Bridge. A Labor politician, the first Aboriginal to become a cabinet minister in Western Australia and a likable bloke, Bridge dreamed of piping water <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/9141435/bridge-renews-kimberley-pipeline-call/">from the Fitzroy River to Perth</a>. Back then he argued that the pipeline would encourage closer settlement and irrigable agriculture north of Geraldton, and that it would drought-proof the southwest well into the next century.</p>
<p>Then, as now, this scheme captured the hearts and minds of many Western Australians. Part of the appeal of Bridge’s ambitious project was that it allayed long-held anxieties about the “empty” or “under-utilised” regions north of the Tropic of Capricorn - anxieties that economist Bruce Davidson first critiqued in his 1965 book, The Northern Myth. Significantly, there appears to have been little consideration of the significance of the Fitzroy River to the indigenous peoples of the Kimberley or the considerable ecological impact of the scheme.</p>
<p>Few Western Australians are probably aware of a precursor to Bridge’s idea which dates to the early 1970s. Mining companies were concerned that limited water supplies would restrict their activities in the Eastern Goldfields and proposed a scheme to pipe water from the north. In contrast to the present Liberal government, then Premier Sir Charles Court saw in this project a conflict with his vision of northern development. The rivers were simply too far and expensive to tap, and these plans to pipe water from the state’s northwest were shelved, at least temporarily.</p>
<p>A vision of far grander scale presented itself soon after – the towing of Antarctic icebergs to moor off the coast near Fremantle. A pipeline would be constructed to transport the iceberg water to Perth. Despite initial interest from the CSIRO, it too was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/science/expert/realexpert/watercrisis/12.htm">dismissed as fanciful</a>. Besides, it would be far cheaper to utilise the groundwater resources beneath the suburbs of Perth, the extent of which had only been revealed in the 1960s.</p>
<p>Each of these pipedreams has stood on the shoulders of perhaps Western Australia’s greatest water dreamer, engineer <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/hindsight/watering-the-west/3975610">C. Y. O’Connor</a>. In conjuring his ghost, more recent dreamers have appealed to nostalgia for the nation’s golden age of pioneering development and grand nation-building engineering projects like the Kalgoorlie pipeline and the Snowy Mountains Scheme. Moreover, they present themselves as Western Australia’s latest entrepreneurs, the newest descendants of a long line of visionary statesmen.</p>
<p>Most importantly, the Barnett government is tapping into long-held anxieties not unique to Western Australians, that there simply is just not enough water. Somehow, then, more should be conjured. “Give the people water and their votes will follow,” wrote Clive Hamilton of the policies of the Howard government. With the 2013 state election due in one of Perth’s hottest months, a thirsty city might well favour the party that turns on the tap.</p>
<p><em>Comments welcome below.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/8625/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Morgan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Settler Australians have a long history of trying to harness the continent’s great rivers to water the dead heart of the country. Schemes such as those of Bradfield and Idriess in the 1930s and 1940s sought…Ruth Morgan, Lecturer in Australian History, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/64492012-04-17T20:40:06Z2012-04-17T20:40:06ZLabor in Western Australia: improving, but still a long way to go<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/9699/original/jjmvpw4w-1334642986.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">WA premier Colin Barnett visits the scene of a bushfire in Margaret River.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tony McDonaugh</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Punishing opinion poll results have become a depressingly regular event for Labor in recent times, at federal level as well as in most states. </p>
<p>It was thus something of a surprise when a <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/labor-on-rebound-in-west-as-new-leader-stops-the-rot/story-e6frgczx-1226323263650">Newspoll result</a> last week offered one state Labor opposition a ray of hope, and all the more so that it should have happened in Western Australia.</p>
<p>Voters in the west have been heaping one indignity on Labor after another ever since the federal election of 2001, the first of four consecutive elections at which it lost seats in the state. While the party governed at state level under the leadership of Geoff Gallop and Alan Carpenter from February 2001 to September 2008, its electoral achievements were meagre compared with those of its counterparts in other states. </p>
<p>It was the only state Labor government of its era to be limited to two terms, with the Liberals emerging from the September 2008 election at the head of a minority government. This was despite the Liberals’ shambolic second term in opposition, in which three leaders came and went before the party turned in apparent desperation to its leader at the 2005 election, Colin Barnett.</p>
<p>Once ensconced in office, the Liberals appeared on track for a landslide win at the coming election, to be held in March next year. New Labor leader Eric Ripper struggled for oxygen in the media and was burdened by the unpopularity of the federal government, which was especially pronounced in WA owing to its mining tax proposals.</p>
<p>When Labor finally sought renewal in late January by deposing 60-year-old Ripper in favour of 44-year-old Mark McGowan, there was little expectation of him achieving more than saving the furniture. So it was that last week’s opinion poll, conducted from a sample of more than 1000 respondents with a margin of error of about 3%, had even Colin Barnett admitting to being “surprised”.</p>
<p>The poll in fact shows the Liberals continuing to hold an election-winning lead, but its two-party preferred rating of 53% points to only a slight swing from the 2008 election – certainly not enough to liberate them from dependence on the problematically independent Nationals. </p>
<p>Even more encouraging for Labor were Mark McGowan’s personal ratings: 43% approval, 17% disapproval and a relatively modest deficit of 43% to 30% as preferred premier, compared with Eric Ripper’s best result of 56% to 22%.</p>
<p>The apparent softening of support for Barnett’s government has drawn attention to its accumulating list of negatives.</p>
<p>After nearly four years in office, the government is less able than its counterparts in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland to blame its Labor predecessor for escalating electricity costs.</p>
<p>Another difficulty, partly related to it, is that many perceive in Barnett the same shortcoming said to have afflicted Alan Carpenter – arrogance. Barnett has particular cause to rue his recommendation that households should seek relief from power costs by turning off their air conditioners, which he asserted were “not necessary”.</p>
<p>This sounded very much like the perspective of a resident of Perth’s affluent western suburbs, which are cooled relatively early on summer days by a “Fremantle doctor” that takes until late afternoon to reach the lower-income suburbs further inland.</p>
<p>The government is also shackled by the “<a href="http://www.rdl.wa.gov.au/royalties/pages/default.aspx">Royalties for Regions</a>” policy, imposed by the Nationals, which allocates 25% of mining royalties to projects outside Perth. This allows Labor to point to extravagant spending in the country while city projects languish for want of government funding, despite the bounty of the resources boom. In this McGowan was astute in ruling out the possibility of a post-election deal with the Nationals, such as Alan Carpenter sought as he tried to keep his government afloat in the wake of the 2008 election.</p>
<p>For all that, Labor is no doubt keeping its optimism on a tight leash. It is telling that 40% of Newspoll respondents remained undecided about McGowan, who only served as a minister in the Gallop/Carpenter government’s second term and accordingly has a slight public profile.</p>
<p>His approval rating will have been boosted by something which has been largely unknown to Labor leaders since Brian Burke – a favourable run from the media, with The West Australian in particular having been cheered by his softening of Labor’s opposition to deregulating retail trading hours. It remains to be seen whether this can continue through to polling day.</p>
<p>There are also a number of reasons why the Liberals should be considered a formidable prospect in their own right. As I argued in the wake of the leadership change, demographic, historical and economic factors make Western Australia a <a href="http://theconversation.com/from-boom-to-bust-why-labor-can-no-longer-win-in-the-west-4995">tough nut to crack</a> for Labor. Despite some misgivings, Colin Barnett maintains an electorally valuable reputation for moderation and competence. There is no sign of the federal government becoming any less unpopular. With the economy remaining the envy of the rest of the nation, the conditions for a rare defeat for a first-term government do not appear to exist.</p>
<p>Without question McGowan has given his party more cause for optimism than it had it the start of the year. But realistically speaking, its plans for returning to office remain a project for the long rather than the short term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/6449/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Bowe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Punishing opinion poll results have become a depressingly regular event for Labor in recent times, at federal level as well as in most states. It was thus something of a surprise when a Newspoll result…William Bowe, PhD candidate, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.