tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/denis-napthine-4973/articlesDenis Napthine – The Conversation2014-12-01T02:59:18Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/343642014-12-01T02:59:18Z2014-12-01T02:59:18ZVictorian election: Labor triumph or Coalition disaster – or neither?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65865/original/image-20141130-20565-1nv8c9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Victorian premier-elect Daniel Andrews and his colleagues now have the chance to demonstrate unity, discipline and functionality to a swinging electorate.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joe Castro</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After Daniel Andrews and Labor’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-victorian-election-but-watch-for-upper-house-chaos-34796">decisive victory</a> in the Victorian state election at the weekend, there has been – not unexpectedly – a welter of post-election opinion trying to account for the rather unusual outcome in which a government was tipped from office after only one term. </p>
<p>In these analyses, the federal government has loomed large as a target. This suits Labor, which hopes to replicate the Victorian outcome at the next federal contest. But it also suits the Victorian Liberals, who would rather blame their New South Wales-based federal counterparts for this spectacular failure. </p>
<p>With the exception of the seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/shep/">Shepparton</a> – where Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/spc-ardmona-rejects-abbott-governments-blistering-attack-on-working-conditions/story-fncynjr2-1226817781267">insensitive comments</a> about workers at the SPC Ardmona food processing plant clearly helped re-align former National voters to the independent candidate – it is doubtful that the Victorian outcome was profoundly influenced by Abbott and his federal colleagues. Opinion polling showed that the Victorian coalition government was losing support from the moment it came to office in 2010 and this trend did not alter.</p>
<p>The causes of the result were essentially Victorian. The Liberal government <a href="https://theconversation.com/baillieus-bombshell-resignation-where-to-now-for-victoria-12676">lost its first leader</a>, Ted Baillieu, amid intrigues about a leadership challenge. Into the breach stepped the avuncular but not particularly inspiring Denis Napthine.</p>
<p>Far from solving the internal tensions, Baillieu’s departure seemed to indicate that the rogue Liberal-turned-independent member for the marginal seat of Frankston, Geoff Shaw, had a taste for upsetting the operation of his (now former) party and he was prepared to go on with it. </p>
<p>Angry about being pursued for allegedly misusing parliamentary entitlements, Shaw proceeded to pursue his former Liberal comrades in retaliation. On at least two occasions he threatened to bring down the government. Shaw was able to add the scalps of lower house speaker <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-04/victorian-parliamentary-speaker-ken-smith-resigns/5237488">Ken Smith</a> and corrective services minister <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/napthines-crew-in-the-sights-of-a-loose-cannon-20130427-2ilbe.html">Andrew McIntosh</a> – both forced to resign – to that of Baillieu. </p>
<p>With friends like this, the Liberal Party hardly needed enemies.</p>
<h2>Policy challenges</h2>
<p>The Liberal and National parties now have four years to reflect on their lost opportunity. Labor returns to government with a narrow majority and possibly facing an upper house in which the balance of power will be held by minor parties of the left (especially the Greens) and populist and socially conservative parties of the right. </p>
<p>The policy themes discussed during the campaign were standard Labor promises. This included putting <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/victoria-election-2014-well-get-you-back-to-work-vows-daniel-andrews/story-fnqetyrp-1227138219259">more resources</a> into the public sector and trying to alleviate the industrial hostility in the <a href="http://www.danielandrews.com.au/policy/only-labor-will-end-the-ambulance-crisis/">emergency services sector</a> left behind by the Napthine government. </p>
<p>Arguably the most contentious matter to arise from the campaign was the question of transport policy. Both sides committed themselves to infrastructure projects. The major point of difference, however, was over the proposed East West Link between the Eastern and Tullamarine freeways by way of a tunnel to be constructed under the inner-city suburbs of Collingwood and Parkville. </p>
<p>These suburbs are part of the state seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/melb/">Melbourne</a> – the epicentre of concentrated support for the Greens. That may have led to the formerly Labor stronghold potentially <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-election-2014-greens-win-melbourne-in-historic-victory-20141130-11wvc6.html">being lost</a>. </p>
<p>Alert to the electoral problem and anxious to attack the Coalition for the way it approached building the tunnel, Labor changed its policy from initially saying that it would honour any construction contract entered in to by the Coalition to instead taking a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/labor-says-no-to-the-tunnel-but-uncertainty-remains-20141122-11rxog.html">“no tunnel” position</a>. This was a high-risk strategy for Labor. The policy shift was roundly condemned by business interests and at least one of the state’s two daily <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/coalition-has-the-best-policies-for-the-state-20141127-11vjq3.html">newspapers</a> as irresponsible and a poor signal to send to investors. </p>
<p>The election result, however, vindicated Labor’s strategy. Andrews can at least expect that the parliament – including the upper house, with what might be a phalanx of Greens – will support him in any legislative exercise to <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victoria-election-2014-daniel-andrews-to-release-east-west-link-documents-20141130-11wzn6.html">extricate Victoria</a> from whatever contracts the former government signed. </p>
<h2>A complex upper house</h2>
<p>The make-up of the Legislative Council will take some time to determine, but the key feature of the Victorian upper house election was that it replicated the voting behaviour of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2013-senate-contest-australia-lurches-to-the-right-17535">last year’s Senate election</a>. </p>
<p>Both major parties have <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/results/legislative-council/">lost ground</a> to the minor parties of the left and right. The re-alignment of former Labor voters to the Greens continued in this election. It seems that the Sex Party also took votes away. The Coalition has lost significant support in rural districts to the plethora of socially conservative and right-wing populist parties. </p>
<p>These parties will have the balance of power in the upper house, but this may not really matter to Labor as it has a lower house majority. The removal of the Legislative Council’s ability to block supply was one of the main consequences of the <a href="http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/Domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/PubStatbook.nsf/51dea49770555ea6ca256da4001b90cd/75a044f7328eae28ca256e5b00214042/$FILE/03-002a.pdf">reform of the Victorian constitution</a> in 2003. To become law, an appropriation bill need only pass the Legislative Assembly.</p>
<p>Even on other legislative matters, the new government has some constitutional tools at its disposal to try to get its way, although negotiation and bargaining will still be the order of the day. After Andrews, the next most important person in the government could well be Gavin Jennings, who will lead the government in the Legislative Council and will be the negotiator-in-chief.</p>
<p>Labor is at the beginning of a guaranteed four-year term that can’t be disrupted by external forces. Andrews and his colleagues have the chance to demonstrate unity, discipline and functionality to a Victorian electorate whose swinging voters have shown that they value this above promises, circuses and vilifying opponents. </p>
<p>The Liberals, meanwhile, will have to undertake the painful task of rejuvenation. The National Party needs to re-connect with its constituents, lest the oft-made claim that Victoria really is something of a naturally Labor state proves to be true.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34364/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Economou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After Daniel Andrews and Labor’s decisive victory in the Victorian state election at the weekend, there has been – not unexpectedly – a welter of post-election opinion trying to account for the rather…Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/341282014-11-25T19:21:01Z2014-11-25T19:21:01ZExplainer: five key seats to watch in the Victorian election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65393/original/image-20141124-19633-1mhritt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What seats will decide the political fortunes of Daniel Andrews and Denis Napthine at the ballot box this weekend?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tracey Nearmy</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian election is just days away and the campaigning is reaching a final crescendo. Both the Labor and Liberal parties are saturating the local airwaves with advertisements. </p>
<p>All of the polls <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-election-preview-34572">point to a Labor victory</a> at this stage. But what are the key marginal seats most likely to determine who holds power in Victoria for the next four years?</p>
<h2>Wendouree</h2>
<p>Margin: held by Labor, but it is now a notionally Liberal seat <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/wend/">by 0.1%</a>, adjusted for redistribution.</p>
<p>Wendouree, formerly known as Ballarat West, covers Ballarat’s central business district and the area to the north of the regional centre. Following the redistribution, the Labor-voting suburb of Sebastopol was lost, making the seat notionally Liberal by 0.1%. Wendouree is held by Labor’s Sharon Knight. </p>
<p>Wendouree has long been a crucial political battleground and is one of the few regional seats that Labor has been able to claim. In <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/state1999resultBallaratWestDistrict.html">1999</a>, the seat of Ballarat West helped Labor leader Steve Bracks assume the premiership. Knight’s Liberal opponent is Craig Coltman, who is back to challenge again after running in 2010. Despite it being a tight contest, the feeling in Ballarat is that <a href="http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/2666637/victorian-election-2014-wendouree-candidates-talk-infrastructure/">transport</a>, <a href="http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/2648611/victorian-election-2014-wendouree-candidates-talk-employment/">youth unemployment</a> and education have been overlooked by the current Liberal-National government. </p>
<p>Prediction: Knight holds the seat.</p>
<h2>Monbulk</h2>
<p>Margin: held by Labor, but it is now a notionally Liberal seat <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/monb/">by 1.1%</a>, adjusted for redistribution.</p>
<p>Monbulk consists of Dandenong Range and outer eastern suburbs including Olinda, Tecoma, Kalorama, Montrose, Mt Dandenong, Sassafras, Monbulk, Upwey, Ferny Creek, Selby, Macclesfield, Menzies Creek and parts of Kilsyth and Mooroolbark. Lost to Monbulk in the redistribution were The Basin and sections of Bayswater and Boronia. </p>
<p>Since 2002, the seat has been held by current deputy opposition leader James Merlino. However, the redistribution has made the seat notionally Liberal based on the 2010 count. Merlino’s opponents include Liberal candidate Mark Verschuur and the Greens’ Michael Clake. </p>
<p>Local issues will be especially important in this contest. The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-07/controversial-mcdonald27s-restaurant-opens-in-dandenong-ranges/5371408">grassroots anti-McDonald’s campaign</a> in Tecoma gripped the electorate in recent years and garnered widespread media attention. The <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/east/vcat-will-be-forced-to-consider-community-objections-under-labor-government/story-fngnvlxu-1227096211456">anti-development sentiment</a> in Monbulk will likely aid Merlino. </p>
<p>Prediction: Merlino will hold the seat by a slightly larger margin. </p>
<h2>Albert Park</h2>
<p>Margin: held by Labor <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/east/vcat-will-be-forced-to-consider-community-objections-under-labor-government/story-fngnvlxu-1227096211456">by 0.9%</a>, adjusted for redistribution.</p>
<p>Albert Park is a diverse and rapidly changing electorate. It includes the suburbs of St Kilda, St Kilda West, Middle Park, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Melbourne and Southbank. The electorate, created in 1889, is a largely affluent district that contains isolated pockets of social and economic disadvantage. </p>
<p>As a result of population growth in Albert Park, the district boundary shrank by two square kilometres in the latest redistribution. Elwood and parts of St Kilda have been lost and consequently Labor’s 2.1% margin has fallen to just 0.9%. Incumbent Labor MP Martin Foley retained the seat in 2010 despite trailing by more than 8% after the first preference count. </p>
<p>For Foley to hang onto the seat, he must again rely on a strong preference flow from Greens voters. His opponents include Liberal Shannon Eeles, the Greens’ David Collis and celebrity rocker Tex Perkins, who is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-09/victoria-election-2014-musician-tex-perkins-to-contest/5877466">standing as an independent</a>. Perkins is campaigning for the restoration of the Palais Theatre in St Kilda and has <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/labor-promises-134m-to-save-the-palais-theatre-20141118-11orss.html">directed his supporters</a> to vote for Foley after Labor committed A$13.4 million to save the iconic venue. </p>
<p>Prediction: Foley will retain the seat. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65409/original/image-20141125-19618-1p4vbdz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/65409/original/image-20141125-19618-1p4vbdz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65409/original/image-20141125-19618-1p4vbdz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65409/original/image-20141125-19618-1p4vbdz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65409/original/image-20141125-19618-1p4vbdz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65409/original/image-20141125-19618-1p4vbdz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/65409/original/image-20141125-19618-1p4vbdz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">St Kilda’s iconic Palais Theatre is a key election issue in the seat of Albert Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joe Castro</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Carrum</h2>
<p>Margin: held by the Liberals <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/carr/">by 0.3%</a>, adjusted for redistribution. </p>
<p>Carrum includes the southeast Melbourne suburbs of Carrum, Carrum Downs, Bonbeach, Patterson Lakes, Skye, Sandhurst and almost all of Seaford. The electorate has lost the increasingly affluent areas of Aspendale, Mordialloc, Chelsea and Edithvale. </p>
<p>In 2010, Liberal candidate Donna Bauer defeated Labor’s Jenny Lindell with a significant 8.7% swing. It was only the second time in the last 45 years that the Liberal Party had scored a victory in the district. This was a key Liberal gain and helped to oust the Brumby Labor government. The redistribution has turned the seat into one of the tightest contests in Victoria with the margin falling from 2% to just 0.3%. </p>
<p>It will require a herculean effort from Bauer, who has <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/bayside/carrum-mp-donna-bauer-is-on-a-mission-to-spread-the-word-about-bowel-cancer-as-part-of-bowel-cancer-awareness-month/story-fngnvli9-1226944173702">battled cancer</a> this year, to hold the seat for the Liberals. Labor candidate Sonya Kilkenny, a commercial lawyer for the ANZ Bank who stood for the federal seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/dunk/">Dunkley</a> at the 2013 federal election, has run a strong, well-resourced local campaign. </p>
<p>Prediction: This is a tight two-horse race that Kilkenny will win. </p>
<h2>South Barwon</h2>
<p>Margin: held by the Liberals <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/soba/">by 4.9%</a>, adjusted for redistribution.</p>
<p>The South Barwon electorate includes the southern tip of Geelong and also the Surf Coast Council region. Bells Beach, Jan Juc and Torquay straddle the southern area of the district while Moriac, Mount Moriac, Barrabool and Gnarwarre rest to the north. </p>
<p>South Barwon is traditionally a Liberal district and is held by Liberal MP Andrew Katos. The Labor candidate is Andy Richards. Greens candidate Lisa Ashdowne will likely claim nearly 10% of the vote and her preference flow will make the seat a tight contest. South Barwon is crucial to the Liberal cause and must be held if the Napthine government has any hope of retaining office. </p>
<p>Prediction: Liberal hold.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34128/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dustin Halse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Victorian election is just days away and the campaigning is reaching a final crescendo. Both the Labor and Liberal parties are saturating the local airwaves with advertisements. All of the polls point…Dustin Halse, Researcher, Swinburne Institute for Social Research, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/344312014-11-23T19:13:26Z2014-11-23T19:13:26ZVictorians look set to elect unlikely premier no. 3<p>Anyone in search of a prime example of the dictum that a functioning democracy is nothing short of a minor miracle need look no further than the state of Victoria. In the past 15 years, what has been the nation’s most vibrant state in the 21st century has twice elected unlikely – some would say accidental – governments.</p>
<p>In 1999, the Labor Party, under Steve Bracks, <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/rp/1999-2000/2000rp19.pdf">fell over the line</a> with a bare majority of the preferred vote and managed to form a minority government with the support of three independents. Seeing off the Kennett government was one of the great upset wins in Australian politics.</p>
<p>Labor was not prepared for victory. It looked to the Carr government in NSW for guidance, organising a series of workshops for its new ministers on how to do their jobs. Bracks regularly consulted Carr on how to be a premier. And it worked. The government found its feet quickly and voters took to it.</p>
<p>In 2002, Bracks called an early election and <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/files/ER-2002-Section9.pdf">secured the biggest vote</a> any party had won in the postwar period.</p>
<p>By 2010, Bracks had handed the reins to John Brumby, who, despite being considerably less popular than his predecessor, was still expected to win another term. But he didn’t: the Liberal-National coalition led by Ted Baillieu got up – <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/state2010resultsummary.html">just</a>. For the second time in just 11 years, Victorians elected a new government without any great enthusiasm.</p>
<p>Again, a government that was not fully prepared took charge. Unfortunately for the state and the Coalition, the Bracks experience was not repeated. Victorians never really got comfortable with the diffident, reserved Baillieu as premier. His government behaved like it was stuck in traffic and by March last year he was <a href="https://theconversation.com/baillieus-bombshell-resignation-where-to-now-for-victoria-12676">replaced</a> by a more conventional political animal in Denis Napthine.</p>
<p>The polls suggested that voters liked Napthine’s energetic style for a while – before again turning against the Coalition.</p>
<p>It appears that the sense of political ennui in the state has hit a new high in 2014. If the <a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-trend-to-labor-continues-34367">latest polls</a> are to be believed, Labor will win this weekend with a small but workable majority. There would be no massive endorsement of a new administration if these figures are right. </p>
<p>Or there could be a repeat of the 2010 campaign. Party tracking surveys started to show a decisive proportion of undecided voters started to move towards the Coalition from the Wednesday before polling day.</p>
<p>In other words, those voters had done their best to switch off from the election until the final moments. Knowing that they would have to vote on the coming Saturday, they took a look and opted for something new. </p>
<h2>Coalition losing with a little help from federal friends</h2>
<p>At this point, such a last-minute shift looks like being the only thing that can save the Napthine government. This time, it would be driven by the notion that the Coalition deserves a second chance. But it would likely be a government hanging on rather than securing a big tick. Then again, a win is a win.</p>
<p>Complicating all of this is the presence of the Abbott government. Most Victorians chose not to elect the Coalition at last year’s federal election; Victoria was the only mainland state to stick with Labor. </p>
<p>The breakdowns of all public polls show that the antipathy towards the federal government and Tony Abbott has festered away for the past year. The hostility was turbo-boosted by the federal budget and, almost certainly, recent moves like the decision to cut the ABC’s budget and try to get away with calling it a saving. It’s a clear betrayal of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/abc-feels-pain-of-broken-promise-prepare-for-cut-price-broadcasting-34427">pre-election undertaking</a> by Abbott.</p>
<p>Despite Abbott’s redoubled effort this year to spend more time in Melbourne, he remains an <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-friends-like-the-feds-life-becomes-even-harder-for-napthine-government-33557">unpopular figure in Victoria</a>. Party strategists report that their qualitative surveys of voter sentiment reveal highly negative attitudes to Abbott. That’s why one of Labor’s most prominent ads morphs Napthine’s face on to Abbott’s.</p>
<h2>What else could Napthine have done?</h2>
<p>If the Napthine government does fall, some Liberals might ponder the road not taken. That road would have seen Napthine running against Abbott as much as he was running against Andrews and the Labor Party. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/s3Tc3N2mGUQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Denis Napthine has often been unhappy with his federal colleagues and could have taken this approach in his campaign.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Napthine is unhappy with Victoria’s take from the nation’s GST receipts. He speaks of it from time to time without issuing a rallying call.</p>
<p>And one of the reasons he has had to so heavily promote the East West Link road tunnel project in Melbourne’s inner northern suburbs as his chief infrastructure project is because Abbott refuses to stump up any money for urban rail.</p>
<p>The other major project on Victoria’s infrastructure books was what used to be called the Melbourne Metro rail project. This new underground network would connect the southern suburbs to the CBD and the inner north, including the Parkville knowledge precinct. The Liberals committed to it in 2010 but earlier this year, in light of Abbott withdrawing the funding promised by federal Labor, Napthine scaled down the project, gave it a new name and pushed it well into the next decade.</p>
<p>Melbourne needs that project built, preferably in its original form and sooner rather than later. What might have happened if Napthine had dug in and railed against Abbott, calling for him to fund all good infrastructure projects, including urban rail, and not just roads?</p>
<p>Napthine’s acquiescence and the fact that Labor under Andrews continues to feel its way towards the election after only four years out of power has led to one of the least combustible campaigns in recent memory.</p>
<h2>The shrinking of state politics</h2>
<p>State politics is suffering from the centralisation of power and revenue-raising in Canberra as well as the stripping back of resources in heritage media organisations, which reduces their coverage unless there is a scandal. </p>
<p>At the same time, civic engagement – as measured by party membership – has fallen as Australians lead busier lives and the major parties have become less responsive to their members.</p>
<p>The result is that state politics, even at election time, struggles to get the attention of the community. Certainly the last couple of elections in Victoria suggest that the contest cannot get pulses racing in the way that it did in the ‘80s and '90s under John Cain and Jeff Kennett.</p>
<p>The consequence of this is two-fold. First, the parties give the impression of outlining a vision for the state but in fact are mostly gathering up small, targeted, poll-tested policy announcements and tying them together into “blueprints” on jobs or transport or schools. No leader bothers to talk about anything beyond the specific; that could be dangerous, a sign of getting ahead of oneself. That’s perceived as risky.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KV0CfLEyGIg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">ALP advertising is introducing Daniel Andrews, the person, almost four years after he became leader.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Second, the focus on the party leaders becomes ever more intense. In the final stages of this campaign, it appears that the ALP has succeeded in selling Daniel Andrews as a young-ish, smiling, family man. Labor left it until virtually the eve of the campaign – almost four years after he took the leader’s mantle – to put effort into getting voters to notice him.</p>
<p>In the past month, Andrews has lost some weight, got a better haircut and ditched his frumpy, hunched suit-clad appearance for designer jeans, an open-neck shirt and a trim jacket. And his hitherto unseen young wife has been by his side throughout the campaign.</p>
<p>In previous years this might have jarred with a large proportion of voters, looking last-minute and tricked-up. Less so now. The truth is, <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-voters-still-cant-name-state-mps-20141020-118ury.html">few bothered to notice Andrews</a> until they had to, which is now, when they know they have to vote. It seems to be perceived as not so much a makeover as a reboot.</p>
<p>Or perhaps voters don’t care much either way. Whether this voter nonchalance is a sign of the success or the failure of the state’s political system might become clearer after Victorians have issued their verdict.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34431/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Carney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anyone in search of a prime example of the dictum that a functioning democracy is nothing short of a minor miracle need look no further than the state of Victoria. In the past 15 years, what has been the…Shaun Carney, Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/335572014-10-28T10:37:03Z2014-10-28T10:37:03ZWith friends like the Feds, life becomes even harder for Napthine government<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63005/original/w9qx33rx-1414492346.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Victorian Premier Denis Napthine faces an uphill battle at November's state election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the ropes already and facing the polls on November 29, the Victorian Liberals have yet again been knocked by their federal colleagues.</p>
<p>Tuesday’s move to <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-gets-round-senate-on-fuel-33538">reintroduce fuel indexation</a> by the tariff route, with the gamble that validating legislation will get through later, is a clever tactic from a federal government desperate to secure what it can of its outstanding budget measures.</p>
<p>But even a very small petrol price rise on November 10, as voters are tuning into the state campaign, is unhelpful for the Napthine government.</p>
<p>Harder to understand is the timing of Tony Abbott <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbott-floats-gst-change-but-puts-limits-on-commitment-to-major-federation-reform-33448">bringing the GST back</a> onto the agenda.</p>
<p>Abbott was delivering a major speech on federalism at the weekend, as work continues on a white paper. But he did not have to include an explicit declaration that the federal government was willing to consider a deal with the states to broaden the indirect tax base.</p>
<p>That would mean increasing or widening the GST, or both. All GST revenue goes to the states.</p>
<p>Napthine <a href="http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/vic-premier-rejects-call-for-gst-boost-20130920-2u433.html">retorted</a> that he was “not interested in increasing the GST”, but Victoria did want a fair share of the revenue.</p>
<p>Napthine launched a further attack when the fuel hike was announced, declaring that “any increase in fuel excise hurts Victorian families and hurts Victorian businesses”. He pointedly added a dig about the way it was being done: “any such proposal, I would believe, should go through the proper parliamentary process”.</p>
<p>This week’s blows are the latest from Canberra to hit the Victorian government. The state budget was popular, only then to be overshadowed by the highly unpopular federal one.</p>
<p>There is plenty of opportunity in coming weeks for the state opposition to associate Napthine with Abbott and urge people to send a message to Canberra.</p>
<p>This week’s <a href="http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/22-24-october/">Galaxy poll</a> has the state government trailing Labor 48-52%, although Napthine leads opposition leader Daniel Andrews as preferred premier 43% to 27%.</p>
<p>Liberal optimists say people haven’t tuned in yet and put Napthine’s chances of survival at 50-50. The more common view is that the government, which has operated in an often shambolic hung parliament, is headed for a loss.</p>
<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green says state Labor has been ahead in the polls since the change of government in Canberra. “Labor’s favoured to win,” he says. “Of the nine government marginal seats on the new boundaries, only three have sitting members to defend them.”</p>
<p>The fuel decision won’t help, Green says. “It’s one of the few costs men notice.”</p>
<p>Ironically John Howard scrapped indexation when, after the introduction of the GST, petrol prices featured in big backlashes in West Australian and Queensland elections in 2001.</p>
<p>Earlier this year the Liberals had hoped to pick up South Australia from Labor, which would have put all the states in conservative hands. They just missed out.</p>
<p>If Victoria were lost, two of the six states would be Labor. But in political terms, Victoria is much more crucial than South Australia.</p>
<p>A Labor win there would be important in the ALP national rebuilding effort. Queensland and NSW are set to stay in conservative hands when these states face elections early next year, but significant swings would affect the national political mood.</p>
<p>Defeat in Victoria would set back Abbott’s hopes of any big tax shake-up. He told the joint parties meeting on Tuesday that on the GST “nothing will happen unless all of the states want it, because it is a tax for the states”.</p>
<p>From the vantage point of Melbourne the Abbott government is very Sydney-centric. Not one of the four Liberal Party parliamentary leaders, or the treasurer, is Victorian. There are just four Victorians in the 19-member cabinet – Kevin Andrews (Social Services), Andrew Robb (Trade and Investment), Greg Hunt (Environment) and Bruce Billson (Small Business).</p>
<p>Although voters distinguish state and federal elections, if the Victorian Liberals lose, there is likely to be a good deal of that familiar federalism game of blame-shifting from Melbourne to Canberra. </p>
<p><strong>Listen to the latest <a href="http://michellegrattan.podbean.com/e/ken-wyatt">Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast, with Ken Wyatt here</a>.</strong></p>
<iframe id="audio_iframe" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/audio/postId/5348515?url=http%3A%2F%2Fmichellegrattan.podbean.com%2Fe%2Fken-wyatt-1414492588%2F" data-link="http://www.podbean.com/media/player/audio/postId/5348515?url=http%3A%2F%2Fmichellegrattan.podbean.com%2Fe%2Fken-wyatt-1414492588%2F" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33557/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
On the ropes already and facing the polls on November 29, the Victorian Liberals have yet again been knocked by their federal colleagues. Tuesday’s move to reintroduce fuel indexation by the tariff route…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/312192014-09-03T01:44:53Z2014-09-03T01:44:53ZNapthine should rethink ousting Geoff Shaw over apology<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/58053/original/g254z7nk-1409704851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The trigger for independent MP Geoff Shaw's potential expulsion from Victorian parliament seems to be the apparent insincerity of his comments on his apology.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joe Castro</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victorian premier Denis Napthine has <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/denis-napthine-moves-to-expel-frankston-mp-geoff-shaw-20140903-10bpgq.html">tabled a motion</a> that would expel independent MP Geoff Shaw from parliament merely for the apparent insincerity of his apology rather than his reprehensible misuse of parliamentary resources. However, Napthine should not take Shaw’s bait; he should show more maturity than over-reacting to provocation. </p>
<p>We have seen a damning report by the Ombudsman, a split Privileges Committee report, the apparent powerlessness of the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (Victoria’s still new anti-corruption body) and a ruling by the Director of Public Prosecutions that charges were unlikely to stick in court. After all that, Napthine’s motion to expel Shaw from parliament is in response to the Frankston MP’s published comments about his apology.</p>
<p>Following the Privileges Committee report <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/05/30/shaw-contempt-parliament-vic-lib-mp">in May</a>, the Victorian parliament imposed a repayment and penalty totalling almost A$7000 and demanded Shaw apologise in parliament – both <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/maverick-mp-geoff-shaw-apologises-to-parliament-20140902-10bi45.html">resolved</a> on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Shaw’s apology seemed to satisfy Napthine, his government and the Legislative Assembly as a whole. On the face of it, Napthine’s June resolution requires nothing more. Shaw was entitled to believe that his apology was all he needed do to avoid being expelled.</p>
<p>However, the <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/denis-napthine-moves-to-expel-frankston-mp-geoff-shaw-20140903-10bpgq.html">trigger for expulsion</a> is now the wording and perception of Shaw’s comments on his own apology, rather than the original allegations. Shaw’s reported <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria-state-election-2014/premier-denis-napthine-moves-to-expel-geoff-shaw-over-his-political-farce-comment/story-fnocxssc-1227045595906">comments</a> – that the process was a “political farce” – can be seen as a cynical, deliberate provocation of Napthine.</p>
<p>The last expulsion of a Victorian MP (Edward Findley), used as a century-old precedent by the government, is irrelevant. That <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/geoff-shaw-evokes-the-ghost-of-a-past-rogue-20140611-zs4f8.html">expulsion</a> was a roughhouse act of political retribution against a Labour MP who had had the temerity to win a traditionally Liberal seat. He was expelled for re-publishing an Irish newspaper article offensive to the King, which had nothing to do with the Victoria or its citizens.</p>
<p>Napthine’s “tough man” expulsion threat now looks like a repeat of the anti-democratic tactics last used in 1901. He could be seen to have over-reacted and been just as vindictive as those who last conspired to expel a MP. This would be at odds with Napthine’s attempt to pose as a moderate, level-headed Liberal, resisting the push by the hard men of the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/former-vic-premier-taped-criticising-mps/story-fn3dxiwe-1226965380570">extreme right</a> for control of his party.</p>
<p>The evidence against Shaw is strong and doubtless deserved a tough penalty. However, expelling an MP because of words spoken about his own apology would be a step too far. If a much more serious breach was found in future, what higher penalty would be left for parliament to impose?</p>
<p>While expulsion has been used elsewhere to expel MPs, it has generally been for an offence far more serious than these original allegations, much less for merely making an apology claimed to be not “appropriate”.</p>
<p>Some parliaments have powerful anti-corruption bodies to deal with such cases (such as NSW’s Independent Commission against Corruption). Napthine’s government gave Victoria IBAC, which is <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/ibac-admits-it-cannot-do-its-job-20140415-36pv9.html">incapable</a> of acting in this case. </p>
<p>Other parliaments have adopted a far more nuanced range of sanctions for unacceptable conduct by their members. These include calling the offending member before the house to be given a humiliating and salutary reprimand or suspending the MP’s salary – or both. Expulsion is rare and usually for the most egregious offences.</p>
<p>For whatever reason, Napthine has failed to learn from the wisdom accumulated by other parliaments through experience and so avoid the trap he has set himself. This leaves him looking like a hothead. But he could still escape that trap with a more nuanced response to Shaw’s provocation.</p>
<p>Napthine has a profound responsibility to demonstrate that he respects the parliament, and to pause and reflect on the punishment for comments about the apology before leaping to another highly questionable expulsion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31219/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ken Coghill is affiliated with the Australian Labor Party (ALP). He is a Life Member of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and was an ALP member of the Victorian Parliament (1979-96). He was Speaker of the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 1988 to 1992.</span></em></p>Victorian premier Denis Napthine has tabled a motion that would expel independent MP Geoff Shaw from parliament merely for the apparent insincerity of his apology rather than his reprehensible misuse of…Ken Coghill, Associate Professor, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/307782014-08-29T04:18:09Z2014-08-29T04:18:09ZVictorian Coalition has three months to change voters’ minds<p>Victorians will head to the polls in exactly three months to elect their new state government.</p>
<p>Like New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia, Victoria has fixed parliamentary terms. Since 2002, Victorian state elections have been held on the last Saturday of November every four years. </p>
<p>In the 2010 election, the coalition of Liberal and National parties ended Labor’s time on the government benches after 11 years. The <a href="http://vec.vic.gov.au/Results/results-state-pendulum.html">election result</a> was one of the closest in Victoria’s history.</p>
<p>On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition won less than 52% of the vote to Labor’s 48%. In terms of seats won, however, the result was much closer. The Coalition won 45 seats to Labor’s 43 in the 88-seat lower house.</p>
<h2>First-term government on its second leader</h2>
<p>Having failed to lead the Coalition to victory <a href="http://vec.vic.gov.au/Results/state2006resultsummary.html">in 2006</a>, Ted Baillieu was <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/ted-baillieu-ready-to-plan-liberal-partys-transition-to-power/story-e6frfkw9-1225962408521">regarded as a champion</a> by his side of politics when he became premier in 2010. </p>
<p>The Coalition appeared to show resilience and discipline by backing Baillieu during its time in opposition. This sense of stability soon unravelled in government. </p>
<p>In 2013, Frankston MP Geoff Shaw openly criticised his party’s leadership and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2013/s3709563.htm">resigned from the parliamentary Liberal Party</a>. This precipitated the fall of Baillieu as pressure from some sections of his own party forced him to <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/baillieu-quits-as-premier-20130306-2fk80.html">resign as premier</a>. </p>
<p>Shaw’s impact did not end there. By effectively reducing the government’s majority, his move to the crossbench forced the Coalition to behave as though it was a minority government. </p>
<p>Denis Napthine <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/napthine-takes-the-reins--but-mum-on-why-baillieu-quit-20130307-2fmhm.html">replaced Baillieu</a> and immediately sought to put out some policy spotfires his predecessor struggled with. Some of these concerned policy issues at the heart of state government: education, health care and transport. Napthine also tried to position himself as a more likeable leader. </p>
<p>The problem for the Coalition, however, was a growing sense that it was disunited and undisciplined. Managing Shaw <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/exspeaker-ken-smith-backs-napthine-government-against-geoff-shaw-expulsion/story-e6frgczx-1226950363278">proved difficult</a> and led to the government being unable to advance its legislative agenda in parliament. </p>
<p>The Coalition also appears to have struggled with <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/conservatives-battle-to-take-control-of-the-victorian-liberal-party-20140822-1078h7.html">internal divisions</a> between more socially progressive members and those who would advance a socially conservative moral agenda.</p>
<h2>Labor regroups after defeat</h2>
<p>In contrast, the Victorian branch of the Labor Party has displayed a greater sense of stability. Despite federal Labor undergoing bitter leadership battles and a devastating election loss since 2010, the Victorian branch has distanced itself from those problems.</p>
<p>One apparent weakness has been Labor leader Daniel Andrews’ low public profile, which the party has sought to address. In recent weeks, Andrews has <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/spin-doctors-spin-dan-out-of-daniel-and-scene-is-set-for-labors-tv-campaign-20140812-103am4.html">featured in advertisements</a> designed to enhance his public profile. </p>
<p>Labor’s performance in opposition was also boosted by Shaw’s resignation and the ensuing dispute <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/frankston-mp-geoff-shaw-attacks-speaker-ken-smith-20131112-2xekv.html">with speaker Ken Smith</a>. These events contributed to the government’s inability to advance its legislative agenda while making the Coalition appear deeply divided and undisciplined.</p>
<h2>Fighting to set the election agenda</h2>
<p>The Coalition has sought to focus on budget management, an area it believes is its strong suit. The Coalition has predicted increasing budget <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/election-war-chest-state-budget-surplus-to-hit-13bn/story-fni0fit3-1226906562627">surpluses in future years</a>. The government has also been seeking to address law and order issues.</p>
<p>The Coalition’s transport centrepiece is the <a href="http://www.linkingmelbourne.vic.gov.au/east-west-link">East-West Link</a>. While lauded by road user groups, the project has attracted fierce <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/protesters-halt-work-on-east-west-link-tunnel-in-carlton-north/story-fni0fit3-1226725805595">criticism from local groups</a>. Also, opponents have mobilised as they <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/contested-east-west-link-business-case-tantalisingly-close-20140813-103r2q.html">question the business case</a> for the road project.</p>
<p>Non-policy matters have recently overshadowed attempts by the Coalition to focus on its preferred issues. A series of <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/conservatives-battle-to-take-control-of-the-victorian-liberal-party-20140822-1078h7.html">social media gaffes</a> by Liberal Party candidates and the leaking of a recording of Ted Baillieu apparently criticising some colleagues <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/napthine-wants-to-know-how-baillieu-tape-became-public/story-fni0fiyv-1226964816425?from=herald+sun_rss">has distracted</a> the government from advancing its policies.</p>
<p>The leaked tape, however, had a negative impact on the Labor Party as well, especially as Andrews <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/ted-baillieu-tape-puts-heat-on-labor-leader-daniel-andrews/story-e6frgczx-1227004936952">struggled to deflect questions</a> about his knowledge of the tape. This was perhaps one event that has tested Andrews’ mettle and he came out with mixed reviews of his handling of the episode.</p>
<p>In terms of its policy agenda, Labor has placed great emphasis on public transport and announced the goal of upgrading 50 of the most dangerous rail crossings. It has also proposed to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-24/labor-party-proposes-legalisation-of-medical-cannabis/5692454">legalise medical cannabis</a> if elected.</p>
<h2>Polling trend favours Labor</h2>
<p>Public <a href="http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/polling/">opinion polls</a> show that Labor’s general approach since 2010 has resonated with many voters. The trend shows Labor holding on to an <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/victorian-alps-poll-winning-edge-crushing-premier-denis-napthine/story-e6frgczx-1226756911281">election-winning position</a>. </p>
<p>More concerning for the government is the fact that the polls have been consistently showing that it <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/denis-napthine-facing-electoral-wipeout-as-support-crashes-newspoll/story-e6frg6n6-1227035165020">trails Labor</a>. </p>
<p>Also, the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/denis-napthine-facing-electoral-wipeout-as-support-crashes-newspoll/story-e6frg6n6-1227035165020">latest Newspoll result</a> of 55%-45% suggests a 7% swing against the government. If this were replicated on election day, the Coalition <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/pendulum/">would lose 15 seats</a>.</p>
<p>The scene is set for a Coalition to be in a defensive mindset. The government will need to hold all the seats it won in 2010 and will therefore be focused on protecting its most marginal areas. </p>
<p>Following a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2013/redistribution.htm">redistribution</a> after the last election, the Coalition notionally holds the seats of Wendouree and Yan Yean with margins of just 0.1%. The bayside seats of Carrum and Frankston are also on notional margins of under 0.5%, while another southeast seat, Bentleigh, is held by 0.9%. Clearly these handful of seats will be the crucial electoral battlegrounds.</p>
<p>The Coalition has found itself on the back foot, often due to internal instability. Despite this, it can still hope to win the election. It controls the resources of government and has three months of vigorous campaigning to go. </p>
<p>The stubborn opinion polls, however, suggest that many voters have already made up their minds.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/30778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zareh Ghazarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victorians will head to the polls in exactly three months to elect their new state government. Like New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia, Victoria has fixed parliamentary terms. Since…Zareh Ghazarian, Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/278752014-06-12T00:13:25Z2014-06-12T00:13:25ZWith Shaw suspended, Victoria has averted crisis – for now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50867/original/5wwd73zq-1402528315.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Geoff Shaw affair has been an unwanted distraction for the Napthine government, which will be hoping for some clear air between now and the November 29 election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After months of uncertainty, it appears that the Victorian parliament may have resolved the political crisis that had threatened to consume the government. The passing last night of a motion to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-11/geoff-shaw-motion-parliament/5514664">suspend</a> independent MP Geoff Shaw from the Legislative Assembly has effectively avoided further escalation of the stand-off. But what now for Victorian politics?</p>
<h2>What happens to Shaw now?</h2>
<p>Shaw is unable to take his seat in the Legislative Assembly until September 2, will be fined A$6838 and is ordered to apologise for his misuse of parliamentary entitlements. If Shaw fails to apologise by September 2, he will be held in contempt and expelled from the parliament. </p>
<p>Shaw says he has accepted responsibility for his transgressions and that it is his intention to return to the parliament in September. The punishment is the harshest meted out to a member of the lower house in <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-geoff-shaw-and-contempt-of-parliament-in-victoria-27605">113 years</a>. It must be hoped this sets an unambiguous standard for future parliaments.</p>
<h2>Where does this leave the government?</h2>
<p>Denis Napthine’s government has avoided the threat that could have left the Coalition facing a Labor gain in a by-election in Shaw’s seat of Frankston, leading to a potential deadlock in the Legislative Assembly. Little doubt exists now that the government will continue through to the November 29 election, when Napthine will attempt to secure a second term for the Liberal-National coalition. </p>
<p>However, the government has incurred significant political damage along the way. Victorians will want to see a return to stability and leadership in the coming months. The priority for the government will be to contain any further outbursts from Shaw and <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/napthine-government-faces-fresh-crisis-as-ken-smith-vows-to-support-labor-over-geoff-shaw-20140530-398m8.html">former speaker Ken Smith</a>.</p>
<h2>Has the issue damaged Napthine’s premiership?</h2>
<p>The answer to this question is likely to settle on the question of integrity and whether voters believe Napthine has restored some to the government. It’s obvious Napthine would have preferred to be out selling the <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-budget-2014-27-billion-building-blitz-20140506-zr5n6.html">state budget</a> along with the government’s case for re-election. </p>
<p>The Shaw affair has been an unwanted distraction for Napthine. H will be hoping for some clear air between now and the November 29 poll. As Shaw’s suspension was Napthine’s desired outcome it will be claimed as his achievement, which offers an opportunity to re-assert some legitimacy and authority to the government. </p>
<p>The next test for Napthine will be to leave the issue behind him and develop a strong narrative that government MPs can rally around.</p>
<h2>Where does this leave Labor?</h2>
<p>Labor did not secure Smith’s support for its amendment to find Shaw in contempt and <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/national/2014/06/10/vic-labor-bays-for-shaw-expulsion.html">expel him</a> from the parliament, but will likely claim a moral victory. </p>
<p>The issue has received sustained media attention and while some will view Labor’s stance as opportunistic it has undoubtedly raised the party’s profile. Opposition leader Daniel Andrews will now want to remind the electorate routinely by connecting Napthine with Shaw wherever possible. </p>
<p>The challenge for Labor will be in maintaining this pressure on the government while avoiding the appearance of being overly negative. The extent of the political crisis has definitely given Labor a voice it previously did not have. What Andrews makes of this opportunity will likely have a direct bearing on the election.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50871/original/hzy4dxry-1402529968.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50871/original/hzy4dxry-1402529968.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50871/original/hzy4dxry-1402529968.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50871/original/hzy4dxry-1402529968.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50871/original/hzy4dxry-1402529968.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50871/original/hzy4dxry-1402529968.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50871/original/hzy4dxry-1402529968.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Geoff Shaw saga has helped to boost opposition leader Daniel Andrews’ public profile.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joe Castro</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How will this affect the November election?</h2>
<p>The issue could still potentially overwhelm political debate as the election gets closer. With Shaw suspended, the numbers in the Legislative Assembly are tied at 43 apiece, with the Speaker required to give a casting vote on legislation not supported by Labor. </p>
<p>Napthine additionally faces a likely electoral backlash over the decision to build the controversial <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/denis-napthine-has-bad-poll-news-eastwest-link-not-popular-20140301-33szm.html">East-West road link</a> ahead of major development for Victoria’s rail network. And if Shaw returns to the parliament in September this may result in further instability and inflict serious damage on the government.</p>
<h2>How will this affair impact the Victorian parliament?</h2>
<p>The greatest cost here is the obvious damage to the standing of the Victorian parliament as a fundamental institution of government. The political crisis has received so much attention that it will likely persist as a negative influence on public opinion of politics and the parliament. </p>
<p>In this respect, both the Coalition and Labor will have to work hard to re-establish some trust with voters.</p>
<p>More importantly, both parties need to think long and hard about important constitutional reforms in order to avoid another potential impasse in future. Previous constitutional changes in 2003, which codified existing Westminster conventions involving votes of no confidence, created a potential impediment to the effective functioning of democracy.</p>
<p>As I have <a href="https://theconversation.com/baillieu-victorian-uncertainty-may-lead-to-constitutional-confusion-12678">previously argued</a>, as long as there is an 88-member Legislative Assembly, it will be possible for deadlocks to occur. If similar political unrest is to be avoided it must be through further constitutional reform.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27875/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Rankin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After months of uncertainty, it appears that the Victorian parliament may have resolved the political crisis that had threatened to consume the government. The passing last night of a motion to suspend…Ben Rankin, Postgraduate Researcher, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/276052014-06-05T00:25:15Z2014-06-05T00:25:15ZExplainer: Geoff Shaw and contempt of parliament in Victoria<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50265/original/3ps4h2m8-1401884054.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Geoff Shaw's potential expulsion from Victorian parliament raises serious questions about the scope of the Legislative Assembly’s powers and the way they are exercised.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Crosling</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Independent MP Geoff Shaw should be grateful the opposition is only proposing to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-04/victoria-daniel-andrews-meet-denis-napthine-geoff-shaw/5498600?section=vic">expel him</a> from Victorian state parliament. It could be worse. Victoria’s Legislative Assembly still has the power to lock up its own members for contempt. And if it treads carefully, it can prevent the courts reviewing what it does.</p>
<p>Although Shaw doesn’t need to pack his toothbrush just yet, the debate about his expulsion raises serious questions about the scope of the Legislative Assembly’s powers and the way they are exercised.</p>
<p>Unlike federal parliament, which reformed its <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Work_of_the_Parliament/Parliament_at_Work/Parliamentary_Privilege">contempt powers</a> in 1987, each house of the Victorian parliament still has the power to expel its own members as punishment for contempt. Like the power to imprison, this power was inherited from the British House of Commons under Victoria’s first <a href="http://foundingdocs.gov.au/item-sdid-19.html">Constitution Act</a> of 1855.</p>
<p>Contempt of parliament can take many forms. In Shaw’s case, the Legislative Assembly Privileges Committee’s recent <a href="http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/documents/assembly/Privileges_Cmt/Recommendation_2_-_Final_report.pdf">report</a> has narrowed down the question to the circumstances in which his parliamentary vehicle was misused. The report found that Shaw contravened the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/mopoia1978439/s3.html">Code of Conduct for Members of Parliament</a>.</p>
<p>Not all contraventions of the Code of Conduct amount to contempt of parliament. The contravention <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/mopoia1978439/s9.html">has to be wilful</a>. </p>
<p>This is where the Privileges Committee report got complicated. The majority picked over the evidence of Shaw’s intentions and knowledge, and wasn’t satisfied that his breach of the code was wilful in the sense of being deliberate or reckless. The minority disagreed. </p>
<p>The majority also decided Shaw’s actions weren’t a breach of privilege, which could have been a separate contempt. Here, the minority didn’t disagree.</p>
<p>So, there’s already a basic disagreement about whether Shaw is in contempt of Parliament. There’s also plenty of room for debate about the appropriate penalty, if the Legislative Assembly backs the minority report and finds Shaw in contempt.</p>
<p>Victoria’s Legislative Assembly has sweeping powers to punish for contempt. In 1876, it <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/7434182">locked up one of its own members</a>, James McKean, for a week, for <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/7434065">misbehaving in the chamber</a>. It had previously imprisoned two newspaper publishers (for criticising members of parliament) and two businessmen (for involvement in parliamentary corruption). </p>
<p>The Legislative Assembly can also reprimand, suspend or expel its members. One of those expelled was the unruly James McKean, who aired his low opinion of the Legislative Assembly after his imprisonment and <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/5896693">promptly lost his seat</a>. The last expulsion was in 1901, when <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/findley-edward-6170">Edward Findley</a> got the boot for publishing a newspaper article that attacked King Edward VII.</p>
<p>These cases are now ancient, but the Legislative Assembly’s powers are largely unchanged. In one respect relevant to Shaw, they have grown. Wilful breach of the Code of Conduct can be <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/mopoia1978439/s9.html">punished with a fine</a>, but in other cases the Legislative Assembly’s power to fine is unclear.</p>
<p>Also unchanged is the ease with which parliament can avoid judicial scrutiny of its decisions. This is one of the most complex parts of the law of contempt of parliament, but as a general rule the courts won’t question a resolution to expel an MP, at least so long as the resolution doesn’t spell out detailed reasons for the expulsion.</p>
<p>The majority of the Privileges Committee recommended that Shaw be ordered to make an additional repayment for the use of his vehicle. However, it is not clear where the Legislative Assembly would get the power to make the order if, as the majority found, he is not in contempt of parliament. The minority didn’t recommend a penalty, confining themselves to their finding that Shaw was in contempt.</p>
<p>So much for the law. Whatever the outcome this time around, history leaves a lingering suspicion that the Victorian parliament’s contempt powers can be used unfairly or for political advantage. Victoria should follow the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ppa1987273/s8.html">example of federal parliament</a> and reform its contempt laws, abolishing the power to expel members and removing the risk of its misuse in future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27605/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Waugh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Independent MP Geoff Shaw should be grateful the opposition is only proposing to expel him from Victorian state parliament. It could be worse. Victoria’s Legislative Assembly still has the power to lock…John Waugh, Senior Fellow, Melbourne Law School, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/275732014-06-04T01:38:52Z2014-06-04T01:38:52ZExplainer: the constitutional implications of Victoria’s ‘crisis’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50166/original/n73pxywt-1401843019.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Unless Victorian opposition leader Daniel Andrews accepts Geoff Shaw's vote, there will be no progress on anything in the state's political crisis.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After a night of <a href="https://theconversation.com/napthine-government-stares-into-the-political-abyss-27564">political uncertainty</a>, the Victorian Labor opposition has indicated it will move to have ex-Liberal MP Geoff Shaw expelled from parliament instead of accepting his offer of support for a motion of no confidence in the Napthine government.</p>
<p>The Conversation spoke with Monash University’s Greg Taylor, an expert on Victoria’s Constitution, to explain the constitutional implications of the developments in Victorian politics.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Is this a constitutional crisis we’re seeing in Victoria?</h2>
<p>No, certainly not yet. There are permutations and combinations which could lead to a constitutional crisis – or at least to a constitutional conundrum – but we’re nowhere near that yet. At the very least you would have to have a successful motion of no confidence passed, and [opposition leader] Daniel Andrews last night was very reluctant to accept Geoff Shaw’s vote. </p>
<p>Essentially, Andrews seems to want to have his cake and eat it too. He wants a crisis and to talk up a crisis, but on the other hand he doesn’t want to bite the bullet and take Shaw’s vote. Until he does that, there will be no progress on anything.</p>
<h2>What does the Victorian Constitution provide for, depending on how the politics proceeds?</h2>
<p>One possible outcome is that nothing at all happens: that no motion of no confidence is moved, in which case nothing happens and we just continue on as before. If a motion of no confidence is moved it might fail. </p>
<p>If it succeeds then we could be in a bit of a difficulty in the sense that you would then have the same problem that we have now – a hung parliament, or a very nearly hung parliament – but the boot being on the other foot, with the Labor Party trying to get into office. What the Liberal Party would do then would be to ask their speaker to resign; that would then put the numbers on the floor back at 44-all, counting Shaw for the Labor Party.</p>
<p>That would be an interesting conundrum, and it would probably end up going in the direction of an early election. But the way things are going that seems very unlikely, because Andrews won’t take Shaw’s vote.</p>
<h2>What is the role of the Victorian governor in this?</h2>
<p>The role of the governor at the moment is absolutely nothing. The Crown doesn’t ride around the state looking for problems to solve, poking its nose in where it’s not being asked. </p>
<p>This is one of the major criticisms that has been made of [governor-general] Sir John Kerr in 1975 – namely that he intervened too quickly, as a result of which the Crown became dragged into political controversy without there being any need to do so.</p>
<p>The governor should not meet with the opposition leader and the premier in the hope of finding a solution by mediation to this alleged constitutional crisis. It’s quite proper for the governor to meet the opposition leader just to keep informed of the state of politics, but it’s not the role of the governor to go around the place, making a nuisance of himself or trying to be an uber-political fixer.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/napthine-government-stares-into-the-political-abyss-27564">Napthine government stares into the political abyss</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a night of political uncertainty, the Victorian Labor opposition has indicated it will move to have ex-Liberal MP Geoff Shaw expelled from parliament instead of accepting his offer of support for…Greg Taylor, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/275642014-06-04T00:15:03Z2014-06-04T00:15:03ZNapthine government stares into the political abyss<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50156/original/vbr83g84-1401835970.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Whatever course Victorian premier Denis Napthine chooses, he has effectively lost control of the government.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/napthine-governments-political-crisis-in-victoria-triggered-by-geoff-shaw-enters-second-day-20140604-39hrk.html">political crisis</a> confronting the Victorian parliament is both curious and concerning. Since Denis Napthine <a href="https://theconversation.com/baillieus-bombshell-resignation-where-to-now-for-victoria-12676">took over as Victorian premier</a> 15 months ago, the issue has steadily developed into an entirely foreseeable stalemate that now threatens his government. </p>
<p>Previously, Dustin Halse and I <a href="https://theconversation.com/baillieu-victorian-uncertainty-may-lead-to-constitutional-confusion-12678">commented</a> that the current threat to the stability of the Victorian parliament could have been avoided if the numbers in the Victorian legislative assembly had been adjusted at the time of constitutional amendment in 2003.</p>
<p>When the Bracks government legislated to introduce four-year fixed terms and codified the Westminster convention for dissolving the lower house through a successful no-confidence motion it created the conditions for the present impasse. <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/ca1975188/s35.html">Section 35(1)</a> of the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/ca1975188/">Victorian constitution</a> provides that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Victoria shall be divided into 88 districts each of which shall return one member to the Assembly.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This requirement is the primary factor that could potentially plunge the parliament into a hopeless deadlock.</p>
<p>The Liberal government formed under Ted Baillieu following the 2010 state election governed with the slim majority of 45-43. Once Liberal MP Ken Smith was elected as Speaker, the government held an advantage of one vote on the floor of the assembly.</p>
<p>However, in March last year, Geoff Shaw resigned from the parliamentary Liberal Party and withdrew his support for Baillieu, forcing his resignation as premier. Shaw’s move left the numbers on the floor of the house precariously placed at 43-43 with Shaw as the lone independent on the crossbench.</p>
<p>Napthine’s government received Shaw’s support in the lower house until late last year when allegations against Shaw of misuse of parliamentary entitlements came to a head. As a result of Smith referring Shaw’s alleged abuse of entitlements to the Victoria Ombudsman, Shaw declared a lack of confidence in Smith’s speakership. </p>
<p>Smith ultimately <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-04/victorian-parliamentary-speaker-ken-smith-resigns/5237488">resigned as speaker</a> in February. Less than a month later Shaw was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-17/geoff-shaw-resigns-from-victorian-liberal-party/5327068">forced to resign</a> from the Victorian Liberal Party. To the shock and dismay of his colleagues, Smith <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-30/former-speaker-to-support-move-against-independent-geoff-shaw/5489332">reignited the issue</a> last week by declaring that he would vote with Labor on any motion to find Shaw in contempt of the parliament. </p>
<p>In response, Shaw <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/geoff-shaw-will-support-no-confidence-motion-against-napthine-government-20140603-39gsu.html">declared yesterday</a> he will vote with Labor on any no-confidence motion in the Napthine government.</p>
<p>Napthine finds himself in the impossible situation where the fate of his government lies in the hands of an aggrieved Liberal MP and a former Liberal MP sitting on the crossbench. </p>
<p>Ordinarily, the opposition would have already moved a motion of no-confidence in the government. However, if Labor leader Daniel Andrews moves a no-confidence motion it will require the vote of Shaw. Labor appears reluctant to accept Shaw’s vote, having said previously that it would not do so. Andrews has said that Labor’s preferred option is the expulsion of Shaw from parliament.</p>
<p>In a press conference late last night, Andrews said Labor would agree to support the passage of the state budget on the condition that Napthine agreed to meet Andrews and Victorian governor Alex Chernov to seek advice on the impasse. Napthine is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-04/victoria-daniel-andrews-meet-denis-napthine-geoff-shaw/5498600">refusing to accept</a> that condition.</p>
<p>Alternatively, Napthine can attempt to continue governing and leave the ordinary business of the lower house at the whim of Shaw, who has <a href="https://theconversation.com/shaw-smith-napthine-just-what-is-going-on-in-victoria-20337">previously used</a> his vote to frustrate the government. This also leaves Shaw open to a motion of contempt being moved against him for misusing his parliamentary entitlements.</p>
<p>The result of such a motion passing, with Smith’s support, would inevitably see Shaw lose his seat in the parliament. That would probably force an early by-election in his seat of Frankston and likely result in further instability. Alternatively the seat of Frankston could be left vacant until the date of the state election, an undesirable outcome for the seat’s constituents.</p>
<p>Whatever course Napthine chooses, he has effectively lost control of the government. This is an unattractive look months out from the state election, scheduled for November 29.</p>
<p>It is unfortunate that these potential issues were not more carefully considered at the time of constitutional amendment in 2003. A practical solution would have been to alter the number of assembly seats to an odd number, which applies in every other state lower house. However, following the 2003 reforms, the numbers of the assembly can be altered only through a referendum.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-constitutional-implications-of-victorias-crisis-27573">The constitutional implications of Victoria’s ‘crisis’</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Rankin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The political crisis confronting the Victorian parliament is both curious and concerning. Since Denis Napthine took over as Victorian premier 15 months ago, the issue has steadily developed into an entirely…Ben Rankin, Postgraduate Researcher, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/203372013-11-15T08:17:55Z2013-11-15T08:17:55ZShaw, Smith, Napthine … just what is going on in Victoria?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/35388/original/vp95k6y8-1384502187.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Victorian premier Denis Napthine accused the opposition of 'hijacking democracy' after an extraordinary week in Victorian state politics. What now?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Speaker Ken Smith has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-15/former-speaker-says-ken-smith-may-have-no-choice-but-to-resign-/5094124">lost control</a> of the Victorian parliament and the legislative agenda of premier Denis Napthine has ground to a halt. In an extraordinary move, Smith decided to shut down the Legislative Assembly until the next sitting day on November 26. Rarely has Victoria’s parliament been overcome by such absurdity.</p>
<p>Central to the matter is that Smith has obviously lost the confidence of a majority of MPs and therefore cannot enforce the rules of the parliament. Opposition MPs can and will now behave in a deliberately inflammatory and antagonistic manner during question time to test the standing of the Speaker.</p>
<p>But just how did the Victorian parliament descend into complete chaos?</p>
<p>As has come to be expected in crises in Victorian politics, independent Frankston MP Geoff Shaw has his fingerprints all over this current situation. Never far from controversy, the “rogue” MP - who resigned from the Liberal Party in March but whose vote is still required by the government given their one-vote majority - shocked parliament on Tuesday by announcing he had <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/frankston-mp-geoff-shaw-votes-with-the-opposition-20131112-2xe6m.html">lost confidence in the Speaker</a>. </p>
<p>It appears that the tension between Shaw and Smith is more personal than political and that Shaw is not moving against the Liberal-National coalition.</p>
<p>Of course, the opposition Labor Party is taking full advantage of the situation. Opposition leader Daniel Andrews <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorian-parliament-suspended-as-speaker-walks-out-20131114-2xhxp.html">contends</a> that “the government is out of control” and that Smith is an “embarrassment”. </p>
<p>For some time, the Labor Party has been furious at the willingness of Smith to impose sanctions against opposition members. Andrews, who was <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/daniel-andrews-suspended-from-parliament-for-three-days-20130919-2u1wt.html">kicked out of parliament</a> by the Speaker for three days earlier this year, clearly has Smith in his sights and will attempt to force his resignation.</p>
<p>A defiant Smith has in turn accused the Labor Party of bringing the parliament into disrepute and has declared that he will not resign the Speakership. His overriding rationale is that he was elected to the Speakership and therefore has the right to continue.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, Napthine has blamed the opposition for orchestrating the standoff and sensationally remarked that Labor Party has “hijacked democracy”. Somewhat optimistically, he suggested that the parliament will resolve the matter and “get on with the job”. But Napthine has refused to be drawn on how the impasse will be resolved.</p>
<p>Napthine has been placed in a precarious position and is presented with a number of politically damaging options. He could act upon the desires of Shaw and quietly ask Smith to resign and move to the backbench. Yet this would be spun by the Labor Party as an embarrassing capitulation to Shaw, who is soon to <a href="http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/vic-mp-geoff-shaw-facing-24-charges-20130917-2twkv.html">face charges</a> of misusing his parliamentary vehicle. </p>
<p>In addition, Smith may resist any attempt at a putsch and threaten to quit the party or parliament, and thus create an even larger problem.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/35389/original/r39nvncm-1384502814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/35389/original/r39nvncm-1384502814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/35389/original/r39nvncm-1384502814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/35389/original/r39nvncm-1384502814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/35389/original/r39nvncm-1384502814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/35389/original/r39nvncm-1384502814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/35389/original/r39nvncm-1384502814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Controversial MP Geoff Shaw has once again found himself at the centre of another crisis in Victorian politics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If Napthine continues to support Smith then the Victorian parliament could further deteriorate into complete farce. Presented with an unworkable parliament, Smith may elect to adjourn proceedings indefinitely.</p>
<p>It is highly unlikely that the Napthine government would choose a potential outcome that creates further chaos. Labor MPs and Shaw, given their legitimate concerns regarding the management of parliament by Smith, will not relent in their tactics and any opinion to the contrary is wishful thinking.</p>
<p>However, the current predicament could have been entirely avoided had scenarios such as these been more closely considered at the time of the constitutional amendment in 2003. It remains perplexing that the Victorian Legislative Assembly has an even number of MPs. </p>
<p>A commonsense solution to matters such as the one discussed here would be to adjust the number of seats in the Assembly to an odd number (as is the case in every other state lower house in Australia). Nonetheless, the only mechanism through which the numbers of the Victorian Legislative Assembly can be adjusted is via a referendum.</p>
<p>Something has to budge, though. It appears that it will likely be Smith.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/20337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dustin Halse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Speaker Ken Smith has lost control of the Victorian parliament and the legislative agenda of premier Denis Napthine has ground to a halt. In an extraordinary move, Smith decided to shut down the Legislative…Dustin Halse, Researcher, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/128462013-03-15T04:03:09Z2013-03-15T04:03:09ZWho’s the Premier? Who cares?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21298/original/p6b6th42-1363308575.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Does anyone care that Denis Napthine is Victoria's new premier?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last Thursday, Victorians awoke to the news that they had a new Premier. Ted Baillieu did not survive four days of rolling scandal which began with the release by the Herald Sun of four hours of taped conversations between key Liberal and National Party players and ended with the resignation from the Liberal Party of Geoff Shaw, Member for Frankston, leaving the government one short of an absolute majority of the lower House.</p>
<p>Most Victorians reacted to the news by shrugging their shoulders and getting on with things. There was none of the anger and panic which accompanied Kevin Rudd’s replacement by prime minister Julia Gillard. Very quickly, the news was displaced in Victoria by coverage of the trial of Jill Meagher’s alleged killer and by the election of a new Catholic Pope. </p>
<p>Victorians don’t really know why Baillieu “resigned”, but nor are they clamouring for answers. What Julia Gillard would have given for that kind of apathy in 2010.</p>
<p>Then on Wednesday this week, the Chief Minister of the Northern Territory, Terry Mills, was rolled in a good old fashioned coup. Like the leadership spills of old, this was a while coming. </p>
<p>In February the Attorney-General, John Elferink, had signalled his intention to challenge for the leadership, but in the end couldn’t muster the numbers. Weeks later, Health and Housing Minister Dave Tollner did force a spill, but ended up being forced out of Cabinet himself. Barely a week after that, Tollner and Adam Giles conspired to organise a coup while Mills was in Japan on a trade mission. </p>
<p>Mills was chief minister for barely six and a half months.</p>
<h2>Catch Labor’s disease</h2>
<p>Obviously, each leadership change had its own trajectory, and the fact that they occurred within a week of each other is largely coincidence. But there are wider implications. One is that the so-called “New South Wales disease” – a shorthand reference to the factional infighting that saw New South Wales Labor cycle through four Premiers (Bob Carr, Morris Iemma, Nathan Rees and Kristina Keneally) before finally losing office in March 2011 – is not limited to the Labor party.</p>
<p>History tells us that governing parties of both persuasions have swapped leaders quite often, especially when in power for extended periods of time, and so the identification of leadership coups with the Labor brand is a distortion. </p>
<p>The association of government leadership coups to Labor in recent times is due, in large part, to the fact that Labor has dominated the government benches in the states and territories during the past fifteen years. </p>
<p>In the decade from 2001 the party so dominated state and territory politics that, outside Western Australia, only in 2001 in South Australia and in 2010 in Victoria was Labor not in government. By definition, any changes of premier or chief minister between elections were changes of Labor premiers or chief ministers.</p>
<h2>Market-driven politics</h2>
<p>George Megalogenis makes a deeper analysis. He suggests that political leadership changes in Australia since about 1992 have been functions of two trends: the domination of political polling; and a general malaise in Australian political leadership. </p>
<p>It was in 1992 that Newspoll went fortnightly instead of monthly. Megalogenis argues that since then, politics is driven more and more by the practices of marketing than by more traditional methods of policy and persuasion. The prime example he gives was Rudd’s decision to drop his emissions trading scheme – his proposed solution to “the greatest moral challenge of our time” – after he was told of bad reactions to it in focus groups dominated by politically disengaged voters. </p>
<p>The recent trend for first-term leaders to be torn down by their party rooms is something we haven’t seen since the 1920s and 1930s in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia.</p>
<p>Related to this kind of market-driven politics is what Megalogenis identifies as the generally sub-standard level of political leadership across Australia. Unprepared politically or philosophically to pursue long-term reform in this era of poll-driven 24-hour news cycles, he argues, leaders seek election on short-term populist rhetoric and then opt out when the going gets too tough. Leaders who adhere themselves publicly to political philosophies which go beyond vague statements (like Gillard’s proclaimed belief in the importance of “education”) are, it seems, relics of the past, so when the polls go south they have no substance to ground themselves in.</p>
<h2>States in play</h2>
<p>A third important factor is at play in state and territory politics – the perception of the relevance (or otherwise) of state politics. The prime minister <a href="http://www.lgnews.com.au/the-thoughts-pm-gillard/#.UUJopTzlzB8">said in January</a> that if the Constitution were being drafted today, the states would be left out. </p>
<p>That tier of government is indeed in a curious malaise. A century of High Court decisions and the GST have centralised taxation powers in the Commonwealth government and left the states increasingly reliant on dubious means of raising their own revenue, such as taxes on gambling and cigarettes, and on tied grants from the Commonwealth. </p>
<p>State governments seem unable to cope effectively with those service areas the Constitutional drafters assigned to them, such as education and health, and too often the state governments seem little more than the facilitators of miners’ and developers’ aspirations. More and more, state and territory governments imagine their role as mere managers, and political leaders as Chief Executive Officers who sink or swim on the share price and the profit-and-loss statement. The tenure of managerialist “leaders” is necessarily short and they are rarely missed.</p>
<p>Megalogenis says he’s waiting for someone to come along and change the whole conversation, perhaps by injecting some philosophical passion into the motherhood managerialism of the current crop of political leaders. </p>
<p>But it’s unlikely that this person will come through state politics. It may be that the lack of public concern about the replacements of sitting government leaders by their parties is a sign of a better acceptance of Westminster traditions than was observed during the Rudd-Gillard swap. But perhaps the most significant message from the twin coups in Victoria and the Northern Territory is that for voters, state and territory politics matter less than ever.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Russell Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Last Thursday, Victorians awoke to the news that they had a new Premier. Ted Baillieu did not survive four days of rolling scandal which began with the release by the Herald Sun of four hours of taped…Russell Marks, Honorary Research Associate, School of Social Sciences, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/127422013-03-12T19:43:37Z2013-03-12T19:43:37ZFlat economy will continue to challenge the Victorian government<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21125/original/kk88mvws-1363042061.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">External economic pressures, including a high Australian dollar, will pose challenges for the Napthine government.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The last two years for Victorians and the Baillieu government have been challenging, with a flat economy and tight budget constraints. The next few years for the Napthine government are likely to involve similar challenges.</p>
<p>Using the broad macroeconomic indicators, the Victorian economy was close to stationary over 2011 and 2012. Aggregate employment was almost constant, the <a href="http://www.deewr.gov.au/lmip/default.aspx?LMIP/LFR_LFR_LM_byLFR_UnemploymentRate">unemployment rate</a> rose from just over 5% to over 6%, and state final demand was little changed with falls in the last two quarters of 2012. The manufacturing and home construction industries experienced declines, but most other sectors of the economy have benefited from higher sales and investment.</p>
<p>Some (but not all) of the external pressures on the Victorian economy to change and adapt to new global and Australian economic conditions over the past two years are likely to affect the opportunities and challenges for the next few years. Completion of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anatomy-of-the-resource-boom-tells-us-its-only-going-to-get-better-for-taxpayers-10314">investment stage of the mining boom</a>, and then the resulting increased production stage in coming years, is likely to maintain the high value of the Australian dollar well into the future. Continuation of a high dollar will continue to squeeze returns of the non-mining export sector and the import competing sector, especially those parts which are relatively labour intensive and using low-level technology.</p>
<p>At the same time, the rapid growth of China, India and other developing countries that lie behind the mining boom has benefited the Victorian economy and opens new opportunities. First, expansion of mining in other states generates new market opportunities for manufacturing, business services and construction in Victoria and other states to service the mining investment. Second, some of the benefits of the higher national income generated by the mining boom are spread via taxation and higher personal incomes to an expanded demand for the non-traded sector, including services. Third, households and businesses have benefited from lower prices for imported goods and services driven by the higher exchange rate. Fourth, the rapid development of economies in Asia and the increased number of higher income middle class consumers opens new and expanding markets for Australian agriculture, services and high technology manufactured products. Many of these new opportunities will be grasped via joint ventures.</p>
<p>A major challenge facing the Australian economy — particularly the Victorian economy — has been the stagnation of productivity growth this century. The increase in the terms of trade to record high levels over the last decade largely drove higher living standards over this period rather than productivity growth, but this is likely to be eroded in the coming years.</p>
<p>Restarting productivity growth is vital if Victorians’ increasing expectations of higher income are to be realised. There is a major challenge for the government, businesses and individuals to better respond to changing markets and buyer needs, to adopt new technology, to change management and work practices, and to allow the transfer of resources and industries from less productive to more productive uses.</p>
<p>On a more cheerful note, the household saving rate, which increased from zero or less at the turn of the century to over 10% of household disposable income last year and now is close to historical high levels, is likely to stabilise. Household expenditure can be expected to expand along with national income. The increase in household expenditure should be good news for retailers, the home construction industry, and for GST revenue for the government.</p>
<p>The Victorian state budget has been challenged by static revenue, ever increasing Commonwealth intervention on spending initiatives via commonwealth special purpose payments, and higher expenditure demands in education, health, policing and transport. With a determination to run a budget surplus and not increase its own taxation, the government responded by tightening expenditure programs, including tough bargaining on wages for public servants. More of the same tough government spending decisions are to be expected in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Freebairn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The last two years for Victorians and the Baillieu government have been challenging, with a flat economy and tight budget constraints. The next few years for the Napthine government are likely to involve…John Freebairn, Professor, Department of Economics , The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/126912013-03-08T22:51:52Z2013-03-08T22:51:52ZStop press: how Ted Baillieu’s failure to manage the media helped cost him office<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21096/original/smr87v9f-1362715879.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ted Baillieu has gone from premier to backbencher within a week. Did his poor relationship with the press cost him office?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the key factors in Ted Baillieu’s losing the support of his parliamentary colleagues on Wednesday night was that he failed to manage the media effectively.</p>
<p>Did he?</p>
<p>To find the answers, it is necessary to go back before the election of November 2010, when the Baillieu Government unexpectedly won office.</p>
<p>John Brumby was Premier. It seemed that every night on television he would show up somewhere in a hard hat and high-viz jacket wielding a shovel or gazing through safety glasses at some symbol of Victorian progress. It almost got to the point of self-parody.</p>
<p>Ted Baillieu set his face against this. He was convinced that this kind of political cabaret – what Paul Keating used to call “the switch to vaudeville” – was short-changing the voting public. The voters would reward you, he believed, if you governed well and delivered on your promises. They didn’t want or need media stunts.</p>
<p>At the time, however, all this seemed unlikely to matter. The Brumby government was on the nose but few people seriously thought it was going to lose. Ted Baillieu’s crew found themselves in office under-prepared.</p>
<p>There were delays sorting out ministerial staffs, winnowing out people who were thought to be too close to Labor and replacing them with people the new Government trusted. A high-profile and respected ABC television journalist, Josephine Cafagna, was appointed the Premier’s director of communications.</p>
<p>Like all Victorian governments since John Cain’s (1982-1990), the Baillieu Government centralised its media management in the Premier’s office. But Cain had planned his from Opposition: he knew he was going to win. Baillieu did not have this advantage.</p>
<p>Yet his new media team embarked on what seemed to be a more high-principled approach to media relations than had characterised the old Brumby team: putting an end to old favouritisms, supplying information on request without putting it through the spin cycle, and answering questions factually.</p>
<p>This was all well and good, but it was also accompanied by failure to observe an ancient ritual. To use a phrase employed by the likes of Tom Playford (Premier of South Australia 1938-1965) and Joh Bjelke-Petersen (Premier of Queensland 1968-1987), Ted Baillieu failed to “feed the chooks”.</p>
<p>In other words, he did not make himself available frequently and regularly to the parliamentary press gallery. Cain, by contrast, during his first two years in office held daily meetings with the gallery – a cup of tea, an informal chat, a formal interview. He had a reformist agenda and he needed to sell it.</p>
<p>Baillieu just seemed unable to develop this kind of rapport with journalists. Although pleasant in one-on-one informal encounters, he was edgy and uncomfortable under media scrutiny. To watch him dealing with journalists on television was to watch a man walking on eggshells.</p>
<p>This uneasiness, combined with his inaccessibility, meant the media also became edgy, and among government members political pressure began to build over what they saw as a failure to get the government’s story out.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/21100/original/xps3v3mx-1362716812.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Victorian Premier John Brumby was never shy of getting his face in the press, or ‘feeding the chooks’ as it is known in political circles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Victorian State government</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some well-reported tensions developed in the Premier’s office, and in December 2011 Baillieu’s senior media adviser, Simon Troeth, left to take a position as head of communications for the Department of Justice.</p>
<p>A month later, in January 2012, Cafagna became executive director of the Premier’s Office, and was replaced as director of communications by Paul Price, another senior media adviser.</p>
<p>All this shuffling and re-shuffling and the government was not much more than a year old.</p>
<p>Then there was a change in strategy. Old favourites were restored. It is understood that members of the media unit on one occasion even attended the internal news conference of one news outlet. For other journalists, however, dealings with the media office became transactional: “You want us to help you. How can you help us?”</p>
<p>This is a recipe for disaster. It looks hard-headed and savvy but it has two certain consequences: it creates resentment among the disfavoured media, and it makes the Government hostage to the goodwill of the favoured media.</p>
<p>The media are not interested in goodwill beyond the minimum necessary to get stories. They certainly have no sense of reciprocal obligation to government. Why would they? Part of their job is to be a watchdog on government.</p>
<p>Through this change, one thing remained constant: Baillieu’s failure to “feed the chooks”.</p>
<p>The picture that emerges is of a man with decent instincts who thought it right to shun media stunts, but who for reasons of shyness or distrust or failure to appreciate the central role of media in the relationship between a government and the public, disengaged as far as he could from this side of his job.</p>
<p>The long-running tensions in his office also suggest disengagement on his part. Engaged bosses head off this kind of dysfunction early.</p>
<p>If this thesis is right, it is part of a wider pattern of disengagement that has been remarked upon in relation to Baillieu’s overall approach to the job.</p>
<p>On Monday this week, disengagement was not an option. The Herald Sun had published taped conversations implicating the Premier’s (now also resigned) chief of staff, Tony Nutt, and the Deputy Premier, Peter Ryan, in activities associated with the removal from office of Simon Overland as Chief Commissioner of Police.</p>
<p>What did Baillieu do? He stood in front of the cameras, taut and upright. No, he had not listened to the incriminating tapes, and yes he had referred the conduct of Tony Nutt to the IBAC. That was it.</p>
<p>Finito.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One of the key factors in Ted Baillieu’s losing the support of his parliamentary colleagues on Wednesday night was that he failed to manage the media effectively. Did he? To find the answers, it is necessary…Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.