tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/emergency-planning-8690/articlesEmergency planning – The Conversation2024-01-03T17:41:29Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201712024-01-03T17:41:29Z2024-01-03T17:41:29ZUK urged to get ready for disaster with new national crises plan – but our research reveals the dark side of prepping<p>What would you do if everyday life was suddenly turned upside down? Thanks to recent <a href="https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20231122-leave-the-world-behind-review-julia-roberts-stars-in-a-timely-and-chilling-thriller">Hollywood blockbusters</a>, the increasing popularity of <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0038038521997763">everyday survivalism</a> and a climate of volatile, uncertain times (war, weather, accelerating technology), visions of the apocalypse seem to be having a moment.</p>
<p>Preppers – those who store food, water and supplies to survive impending disaster – have a bit of an image problem. Ridiculed for their delusional end-of-the world outlook, they are caricatured as “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gwao.13086">tin foil hat-wearing loons</a>”. But is their approach to self-sufficiency so extreme? Recently, we’ve seen <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/rolling-blackouts-energy-crisis-life-death-disability-b2272741.html">energy companies</a> warn about blackouts, urging people to plan for when the lights go out.</p>
<p>In this context, looming (and actual) threats from climate disruption, extreme weather, global pandemics, cyberattacks and AI have led the UK government to launch its ambitious <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uk-government-resilience-framework">resilience framework</a>.</p>
<p>This framework is based on three core principles: a shared understanding of risk, a greater emphasis on preparation and prevention, and establishing resilience as a “whole of society” endeavour. Everyone is encouraged to be prepared.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/living-with-bunker-builders-doomsday-prepping-in-the-age-of-coronavirus-136635">Living with bunker builders: doomsday prepping in the age of coronavirus</a>
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<p>In the new guidance, households are urged to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/05/britons-should-stock-up-on-torches-and-candles-in-case-of-power-cuts-says-oliver-dowden">stockpile items</a> such as radios and candles, and have ample food in case disaster strikes. But this blanket whole of society call to preparedness rings hollow for many people who feel burned by past <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/14/we-have-a-brexit-shelf-readers-prepping-for-the-no-deal-scenario">vague government directives</a>.</p>
<p>In the run up to Britain’s exit from the EU, for example, fears arose surrounding the collapse of supply chains. The ongoing availability of everyday consumer goods was questioned. Despite officials dismissing stockpiling as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55293595">unnecessary</a>, the fact is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/14/we-have-a-brexit-shelf-readers-prepping-for-the-no-deal-scenario">one-in-five Britons began prepping</a>.</p>
<p>Many consumers secretly stashed essential items – tinned food, toilet paper, batteries – driven by stigma surrounding “tin foil hat” preppers (more usually associated with <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7151311/">bunker-culture</a>, calamity and doomsday scenarios). However, the government has seemingly reversed its stance, and is now sounding the alarm about imminent crises, and – more importantly – how we are all individually responsible for being prepared.</p>
<p>As a group of academics researching shifts in prepping, covering Brexit, COVID-19, and now the cost of living crisis, our collective work explores how consumers practise everyday resilience and preparedness. </p>
<h2>Women, responsibility and division</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/14/i-dont-trust-the-government-to-look-after-me-or-my-dog-meet-the-brexit-stockpilers">Newspaper articles</a> and our own <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0038038521997763">research</a> on UK Brexit preppers suggest that women disproportionately bear the weight of home-based preparedness.</p>
<p>Domestic and emotional issues fall squarely on mothers who are tasked with keeping households running, no matter the circumstances. Whether ensuring everyone eats during shortages or soothing worries when the lights go out, women carry an outsized caretaking burden pivotal to family survival. All while navigating their own stresses and anxieties.</p>
<p>Recommendations around resilience underestimate the invisible and emotional labour needed to implement contingency planning, scanning the horizon for the next crisis. Rather than empowering households, the push toward self-sufficient readiness fuels deeper anxiety around loved ones’ safety. And if disaster strikes, support beyond immediate family remains essential.</p>
<p>Despite the resilience framework promoting a whole of society approach, preparedness inevitably develops into a scenario of haves and have-nots (meaning, those with the spare cash, space and time to prepare, and those who do not). This lays the foundations for inequality, resentment and the erosion of communal ties.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gwao.13086">research</a> on Brexit-prepping mothers highlights the stigma that they directed towards the unprepared (who they vilified as lazy and feckless for failing to shield children from risk). What resulted was families taking individual action to preserve their own resilience, which we believe has two implications for the resilience framework.</p>
<p>First, focus on individual resilience risks fuelling an “everyone for themselves” mentality. The prepared will put their own families’ needs above others. In our research with Brexit preppers, envisaged disruption led mothers to anticipate difficult decisions surrounding who they would and would not offer help should disaster strike.</p>
<p>In our research study ordinary, upstanding community members (such as teachers and parish councillors) imagined allowing children of the unprepared to go hungry, or considered exploiting others’ unpreparedness on the black market (selling surplus food and supplies at extortionate prices).</p>
<p>Pushed to the edge, they fortified their homes and armed themselves to fend off potential looters who lacked the foresight to prep. Anna, for example, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gwao.13086">discussed using her archery skills</a> to fend off possible looters: “I’m actually an archer, so I have a bow and arrow in the garage. And I’m a bloody good shot, I’m not kidding. I’d need to protect the family.”</p>
<p>Second, the ability to be “prepared” risks becoming tightly bound up with dominant norms of privilege and “good”, middle-class motherhood. These are the mothers mostly likely to possess the wealth, time, skills and physical space to prep.</p>
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<h2>Those left out</h2>
<p>Conversely, the less privileged, such as those experiencing housing issues and precarious employment, who often live hand to mouth, will be less able to prepare. Their survival is likely focused on the everyday, rather than planning for a possible eventuality. Inevitably, they will need wider support from the community, which the resilience framework, given its individualised approach to risk, does not fully consider.</p>
<p>While secrecy around prepping aims to safeguard accumulated assets from prospective thieves, it also isolates at-risk groups who lack equal means to stockpile for themselves. What duty do neighbours have to share with others if catastrophe (or even a temporary glitch) occurs? The line between rational self interest and morality blurs when survival instincts kick in, yet interconnected resilience may suffer when social cohesion frays beyond repair.</p>
<p>The government may encourage readiness across the whole of society, but this rings hollow if resilience is pursued through the stigma and separation of haves versus have-nots. Promoting preparedness without addressing inequalities, communal ties, emotional resilience and the gendered nature of caretaking labour undermines social cohesion critical for weathering crises.</p>
<p>Real security arises not from isolated stockpiles and individual action, but the establishment of more community-wide plans for preparedness in the event of disaster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220171/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Prepping is fast becoming mainstream, but new government advice fails to address inequality, and could cause division between the haves and have-nots.Ben Kerrane, Professor of Marketing, School of Busines, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityDavid Rowe, Lecturer in Marketing, University of YorkKaty Kerrane, Lecturer in Marketing, University of LiverpoolShona Bettany, Professor of Marketing, School of Business, Education and Law, University of HuddersfieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166442023-12-21T04:39:12Z2023-12-21T04:39:12ZWhen disaster strikes, emergency responders can’t respond to every call. Communities must be helped to help themselves<p>As record-breaking floods in North Queensland ease and water levels recede, the focus now turns to the mop-up and recovery. Residents have been <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgkfqttxNqk">supporting</a> each other through the flood crisis, such as processing donated goods, conducting welfare checks on neighbours and helping each other clean up homes.</p>
<p>Such community resilience in disasters is vital. <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/nsw-government/projects-and-initiatives/floodinquiry">Successive</a> <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/natural-disasters">inquiries</a> have shown we can’t rely solely on emergency services in large disasters. Crews can’t get to every community straight away, or provide support to every household that needs assistance.</p>
<p>Our research shows how communities can be supported to respond in a crisis – during the event, in the immediate aftermath and beyond.</p>
<p>As climate change worsens, extreme weather events are the new norm. Local community building and preparedness is now more important than ever.</p>
<h2>Building disaster resilience</h2>
<p>Volunteer numbers are <a href="https://www.volunteeringaustralia.org/wp-content/uploads/VRP_The-Decline-of-Formal-Volunteering-in-Australia-2001%E2%80%932020-Insights-from-the-HILDA-Survey.pdf">declining nationally</a>. However, when disaster strikes, people show a willingness to step forward and help their communities.</p>
<p>We have researched <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-environment-institute/news/2023/08/02/communities-self-organising-for-climate-disasters.html">community-led responses</a> to disasters in three locations in New South Wales – the Northern Rivers, Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury regions. We examined how community networks organised themselves during the response and recovery phases of the Black Summer bushfires (2019-20) and major floods (2020-22). </p>
<p>We found people leapt into action and helped one another: relaying early warning messages, distributing food when roads were cut and then cleaning up afterwards. They also provided emotional support when the going got tough. This included listening to and supporting flood-affected people who wanted to tell their story and start processing what had happened. Community members also supported elderly people when their at-home support services were cut off for extended periods. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-environment-institute/news/2023/05/01/building-resilience-to-the-mental-health-impacts-of-climate-chan.html">separate research</a> in rural communities affected by drought, fire and flood, we found community-led collective action and planning can foster feelings of belonging and social connection. It can also help communities prepare for the broader consequences of climate change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039">North Queensland's record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what's to come under climate change</a>
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<h2>Community resilience in action</h2>
<p>Many community-led resilience initiatives have emerged in the Northern Rivers region in the wake of successive disasters. They include <a href="https://www.floodhelpnr.com.au/">Resilient Lismore</a>, <a href="https://resilientuki.org/">Resilient Uki</a>, <a href="https://www.wardellcore.community/">Wardell CORE</a>, <a href="https://togetherpottsville.org/">Together Pottsville</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/431100262102216">South Golden Beach Community Resilience Team</a>, and <a href="https://www.madr.org.au/#:%7E:text=Main%20Arm%20Disaster%20Recovery%20Inc.%20is%20a%20community%2Drun%20organisation,to%20keep%20the%20community%20safe.">Main Arm Disaster Recovery</a>. </p>
<p>Examples of the activities flowing from these initiatives include:</p>
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<li>homegrown produce swaps</li>
<li>community gatherings (such as festivals, barbeques and bushfire awareness talks)</li>
<li>creating or joining formal local community groups</li>
<li>creating community resilience plans</li>
<li>bush regeneration projects</li>
<li>improving emergency communications </li>
<li>creating animal welfare plans for disasters. </li>
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<p>One <a href="https://www.ccrnetwork.org/">community program in Northern NSW</a> was run by community organisation <a href="https://www.planc.org.au">Plan C</a>. The lead author of this article, Rebecca McNaught, is a board member and former consultant to the organisation and co-author Jean Renouf is the founder and chief executive. The program trained and supported more than 270 Northern Rivers residents across six local government areas. Most (80%) of these people were affected by floods in 2022 through loss of property or incomes, and 30% were directly threatened by bushfires in 2019-20.</p>
<p>The program covered the technical aspects of preparing for disasters, such as learning about the roles of fire, police and state emergency services. It also trained participants in disaster risks associated with bushfire, flood, tsunami and landslips.</p>
<p>Disasters can <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/13/6285">take a toll on mental health</a>. Training people in how to look after themselves and each other in challenging times is important. The program teaches participants about the benefit of sharing stories about individual experiences, and guides participants in how to provide emotional support to someone who has experienced trauma. The program also covers concepts such as active listening, compassionate communication skills and self-care for both the helper and the person receiving support.</p>
<p>Participants are also mentored and connected to a network of community carers and responders who support each other and their communities to both recover from recent floods and fires and build resilience to future disasters.</p>
<p>The connection of community leaders across the Northern Rivers is essential. Through Whatsapp groups, leaders can express solidarity, share skills and resources, and support each other to work through the governance issues involving community organisations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-can-floods-like-those-in-the-northern-rivers-come-in-clusters-180250">Why can floods like those in the Northern Rivers come in clusters?</a>
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<h2>The benefits are clear</h2>
<p>Communities are important actors in preparing for and recovering from disaster, and should be supported to do this job well. And more robust research into community resilience programs is needed, to better understand what is working, who benefits and why.</p>
<p>Support for this work must come now, before the next disaster, so communities can pull together to withstand the challenges ahead. </p>
<p><em>The authors wish to acknowledge Emma Pittaway and Dr Johanna Nalau for their contributions to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca McNaught is a Research Fellow at the University Centre for Rural Health (University of Sydney) in Lismore. She has received scholarship funding from the Australian Government's Research Training Program Stipend. She is affiliated with the South Golden Beach, New Brighton and Ocean Shores Community Resilience Team. She has also conducted paid and voluntary work for the Northern Rivers not-for-profit registered charity Plan C. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Howard has received funding from Resilience NSW and the new NSW Reconstruction Authority, Infrastructure NSW.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean S. Renouf is a lecturer at Southern Cross University and the CEO of the Northern Rivers not-for-profit registered charity Plan C, which builds community resilience in the Northern Rivers of NSW. Plan C receives funding from Commonwealth and NSW government grants.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Longman has received funding from the NSW Dept of Planning, Industry and Environment and the NSW Reconstruction Authority. </span></em></p>The North Queensland floods remind us of the need to build community resilience to disasters – during the event, in the immediate aftermath and beyond.Rebecca McNaught, Research Fellow, University of SydneyAmanda Howard, Associate Professor, University of SydneyJean S. Renouf, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Southern Cross UniversityJo Longman, Senior Research Fellow, The University Centre for Rural Health, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1766812022-02-11T20:42:45Z2022-02-11T20:42:45ZThe occupation of Ottawa by the ‘freedom convoy’ has the potential for an urban siege<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445959/original/file-20220211-15-i2905w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C23%2C5287%2C3490&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trucks parked in front of the Chateau Laurier in Ottawa during the protest against COVID-19 restrictions.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ontario’s <a href="https://youtu.be/pZWSHBhSHqU">declaration of a state of emergency in response to the so-called “freedom convoy” and its occupation of public space in Toronto and Ottawa and at the U.S.-Canada border in Windsor is intended to end the disruptions caused by protestors</a>. </p>
<p>The announcement criminalizes disruptive acts like blocking roads and border crossings, and gives police the power to respond with charges and penalties ranging from $100,000 in fines to a year in prison.</p>
<p>Two weeks after thousands of protesters in trucks rolled into Ottawa on Jan. 28 protesting vaccine mandates for cross-border truck drivers, hundreds of self-proclaimed “freedom convoy” activists remain embedded in the city’s downtown core. Persons with a variety of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/world/canada/canada-protesters-ottawa.html">grievances related to far right causes and anti-vaccine sentiments</a> remain in place with <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/watson-state-of-emergency-update-1.6342156">400 to 500 trucks blockading downtown Ottawa</a>. </p>
<p>From a disaster and emergency management perspective, the hazard being realized in Ottawa arises from specific human behaviours — or more accurately, misbehaviour. The protest has produced temporary increase in population that has evolved into an an unlawful occupation. As days turn into weeks, the chance of an ugly and tragic ending increases.</p>
<p>An appropriate and measured police response stressing de-escalation has emboldened protestors to dig in. Frustration from Ottawa residents is being misdirected towards local authorities, who are otherwise well-prepared to deal with routine emergency planning required for a variety of contingencies. But this is a non-routine and increasingly bizarre social hazard situation. And as occupiers hunker down to prolong the disruption, the chances of a dangerous stand-off between police and protesters increase.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The <em>Washington Post</em> reports on the occupation of Ottawa’s streets.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Emergency plans</h2>
<p>It is not out of the ordinary that an event of some sort will bring a temporary population influx into Canada’s capital city. What is out of the ordinary is the rare crisis situation Ottawa now is facing, where protestors continue to purposely operate outside of the bounds set for public safety at large events.</p>
<p>Activities ranging from celebrations to protests can bring tens of thousands into the city, albeit on a temporary basis. Such influxes of people have risks but do not necessarily represent a hazard. </p>
<p>For example, as part of Canada’s sesquicentennial celebration in July 2017, a French theatrical performance involving a giant robotic dragon and spider attracted <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/3939739/canada-150-numbers/">750,000 people to downtown Ottawa during a four-day period</a>. As with most mass gatherings, people were able to come and go safely without incident. That event illustrated that Ottawa can safely manage events much larger than the current occupation.</p>
<p>To prevent disasters, emergency planning takes place on multiple levels to provide safety for large crowds and public spaces. </p>
<p>Examples of this planning are the guidance of the <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/public-safety-and-emergency-services/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/local-government/majorplannedeventsguidelines.pdf">Major Planned Events Working Group</a> in British Columbia, and the established special event-planning processes practised in cities like <a href="https://documents.ottawa.ca/sites/documents/files/event_guide_en.pdf">Ottawa</a> and <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/business-economy/industry-sector-support/events/criteria-definitions-and-examples/">Toronto</a>. </p>
<p>The current disaster unfolding in downtown Ottawa is a non-routine mass gathering and has many elements that undermine existing emergency planning. It is a population influx with no outflux, which is problematic, as those who stay behind are <a href="https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/several-people-arrested-for-bringing-gas-to-freedom-convoy-demonstrators-in-ottawa-police-say-1.5770413">attempting to create their own infrastructure to sustain their occupation</a>.</p>
<p>Those participating in the protest have selfishly decided that public health and safety guidelines do not apply to them. They have also engaged in subterfuge by <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/ottawa-protesters-employ-gas-can-subterfuge-to-frustrate-police">swarming, distracting and subverting police</a>. This all indicates that planning for the “freedom convoy” relies on <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/convoy-protesters-police-tactical-knowledge-1.6345854">organized systems to support the co-ordination and logistics of the occupation</a>.</p>
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<h2>MOVE: A cautionary tale</h2>
<p>Understanding other cases of how unusual hazards produced by urban occupations were brought to an end can shed light on what a worst-case scenario for Ottawa may look like. One <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2015/05/18/407665820/why-did-we-forget-the-move-bombing">lesser-known prolonged urban crisis</a> that shares some of the same complexities as the Ottawa occupation was a situation from 1985 in Philadelphia.</p>
<p>MOVE is a <a href="https://philadelphiaencyclopedia.org/archive/move/">Black communal movement combining Black nationalism and green anarchism</a>. After a sordid history of racially charged and increasingly violent confrontations with police, <a href="https://collaborativehistory.gse.upenn.edu/stories/move">MOVE retreated into a fortified row house in the middle of a residential block</a>. In 1978, after a 15-month-long siege, a police officer was killed as hundreds of police officers swarmed the building the group was occupying. </p>
<p>Seven years later, in 1985, <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/8/8/20747198/philadelphia-bombing-1985-move">police used a helicopter to drop a bomb on the MOVE house to end another standoff, killing 11 people, including five children</a>. The police and the city <a href="https://zeitgeistfilms.com/film/letthefireburn">allowed the resulting fire to burn, destroying the surrounding neighbourhood and leaving 250 people homeless</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A documentary from <em>The Guardian</em> on the 1985 bombing of the MOVE house by Philadelphia police.</span></figcaption>
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<p>A Philadelphia Special Investigation Commission determined that <a href="https://snaccooperative.org/ark:/99166/w6kh5hdr">choices made by authorities to end the standoff in a forceful manner were grossly negligent</a>. </p>
<p>The tragic ending of the MOVE occupation and standoff is a cautionary tale. The rapid escalation of tensions resulting from actions to evict dedicated persons who occupy makeshift defensive positions in an urban setting can result in unintended and regrettable consequences. </p>
<h2>Calls for police action</h2>
<p>Authorities in Ottawa have been wise to take a risk-reduction approach of de-escalation and containment with the intention of giving the occupiers time to make their own choice to leave.</p>
<p>However, as the occupation drags on and nuisance levels increase, there will be additional pressure on the police to act. Current frustration and perceptions that authorities are unable to manage the situation are misplaced.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-freedom-convoy-reveals-about-the-ties-among-politics-police-and-the-law-176680">What the 'freedom convoy' reveals about the ties among politics, police and the law</a>
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<p>A peaceful ending is still possible if police are able to facilitate a safe exit for occupiers who wish to leave. On the other hand, when lines are crossed and the continued occupation creates an intolerable public safety risk, authorities can quickly end the occupation by force at a time of their own choosing. </p>
<p>It will be unfortunate for Canada if those local, provincial or federal authorities who are eventually tasked to end the Ottawa occupation are required to choose between options which are all risky, dangerous and controversial.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176681/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>ack L. Rozdilsky is a Professor at York University who receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research as a co-investigator on a project supported under operating grant Canadian 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Rapid Research Funding.</span></em></p>As the “freedom convoy” and occupation of Ottawa drags on, the potential for a violent stand-off between protestors and police increases, which in turn decreases the chances of a peaceful resolution.Jack L. Rozdilsky, Associate Professor of Disaster and Emergency Management, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1606232021-06-10T20:07:51Z2021-06-10T20:07:51ZProceed to your nearest (virtual) exit: gaming technology is teaching us how people respond to emergencies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405577/original/file-20210610-15-1mz9j3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5699%2C3837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) aren’t just for gaming anymore, they’re also proving to be useful tools for disaster safety research. In fact, they could save lives. </p>
<p>Around the world, natural and human-made disasters such as earthquakes, bushfires and terrorist attacks threaten substantial economic loss and human life.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343809101_Virtual_and_Augmented_Reality_for_Human_Behaviour_in_Disasters_A_Review">research review</a> looked at 64 papers on the topic of using AR and VR-based experiments (mostly simulating emergency scenarios) to investigate human behaviour during disaster, provide disaster-related education and enhance the safety of built environments.</p>
<p>If we can investigate how certain factors influence people’s decisions about the best course of action during disaster, we can use this insight to further construct an array of VR and AR experiments.</p>
<h2>Finding the optimal fire desing</h2>
<p>Research has shown the potential of AR and VR in myriad disaster contexts. Both of these technologies involve digital visualisation. VR involves the visualisation of a complete digital scene, whereas AR allows digital objects to be superimposed over a real-life background.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This figure helps explain the difference between VR, AR and the real world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ruggiero Lovreglio</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>VR has already played a key role in designing safety evacuation systems for new buildings and infrastructure. For example, in past research my colleagues and I have used VR to identify which signage is the best to use in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10694-015-0462-5?shared-article-renderer">tunnels</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S000368701630182X">buildings</a> during emergency evacuations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A participant in the CAVE (Cave Automatic Virtual Environment) at Lund University, in a VR-based tunnel evacuation experiment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ruggiero Lovreglio</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In these studies we asked participants to rank different signs using a questionnaire based on the “<a href="https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/book/the-encyclopedia-of-human-computer-interaction-2nd-ed/affordances">theory of affordances</a>”, which looks at what the physical environment or a specific object offers an individual. In other words, we explored how different signs can be sensed, understood and used by different people during emergencies.</p>
<p>Before building expensive new infrastructure, we can simulate it in VR form and test how different evacuation signage performs for participants. In the case of signage for tunnel exits, research showed:</p>
<p>— green or white flashing lights performed better than blue lights</p>
<p>— a flashing rate of one flash per second or four flashes per second is recommended over a slower rate of, say, one flash per four seconds.</p>
<p>— LED light sources performed better than single and double-strobe lights.</p>
<p>In another non-immersive VR study, we observed participants’ behaviours and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S000368701630182X?via%3Dihub">identified</a> which sign was the best to direct people <em>away</em> from a specific exit in case of an emergency (as that exit might lead towards a fire, for instance). </p>
<p>The results showed red flashing lights helped evacuees identify the sign, and the sign itself was most effective with a green background marked with a red “X”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign with a green background marked with a red 'x'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A green background marked with a red ‘x’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=5336038&fileOId=5336054">Joakim Olander (2015)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>VR and AR are uniquely positioned to let experts study how humans behave during disasters — and to do so without physically <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349383121_A_Multi-role_Multi-user_Multi-technology_Virtual_Reality-based_Road_Tunnel_Fire_Simulator_for_Training_Purposes">harming anyone</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-augmented-reality-anyway-99827">What is augmented reality, anyway?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>From Pokemon Go to earthquake drills</h2>
<p>Research projects have tested how AR superimpositions can be used to guide people to safety during a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925753520301478?via%3Dihub">tsunami warning or earthquake</a>. </p>
<p>In theory, the same approach could be used in other contexts, such as during a terror attack. AR applications could be built to teach people how to act in case of terror attacks by following the rule of <em>escape, hide and tell</em>, as <a href="https://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/Securityandyourcommunity/Pages/escape-hide-tell.aspx">advised</a> by the government. </p>
<p>Such virtual applications have great potential to educate thousands of people quickly and inexpensively. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10055-020-00447-5">Our latest VR study</a> indicated this may make them preferable to traditional training. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/antarctica-without-windchill-the-louvre-without-queues-how-to-travel-the-world-from-home-140174">Antarctica without windchill, the Louvre without queues: how to travel the world from home</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In some of our experiments, several participants were immersed in <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/project/Modelling-Decision-Making-in-Fire-Evacuation-based-on-Random-Utility-Theory">simulated fire emergencies</a> where they had to evacuate. We <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378437115006007?via%3Dihub">investigated</a> the factors that influenced how participants navigated a space to reach an exit, and <a href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S096585641630550X">how they chose</a> between several exits in different fire and social conditions.</p>
<p>Studies on this front have highlighted humans are social animals. In line with “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/social-influence">social influence theory</a>”, they tend to follow other people during emergencies. This is a crucial consideration for authorities tasked with designing or implementing disaster evacuation protocols.</p>
<p>Another common behaviour observed was that participants tended to use exits they were already familiar with. </p>
<p>While these findings aren’t necessarily surprising, they help confirm <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0013916585176003">existing theories</a> about public evacuation behaviours. They also help reinforce observations made during real-life evacuation scenarios — where human lives can hang in the balance.</p>
<p>The next challenge is to ensure that in the future, advanced AR and VR-based training applications do not traumatise or distress participants. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A VR simulation of a metro station, used in one of our research studies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ruggiero Lovreglio</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The myth of overwhelming panic</h2>
<p>It’s worth noting that in the experiments there were no signs of “panic” among participants. Indeed, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fam.1083?casa_token=imMLq1iOm5gAAAAA%3Asx_oHwQ1LQOtKl1DRVobanKfKdYfykY0KHu6RCIojBJlMR6wS1ao-InKSHrobMrM9JxFP9V1Q_yjxOE">research</a> has shown feeling panicked is very rare in fire scenarios. </p>
<p>Rather, participants took several factors into account before choosing what they deemed was the best option. Generally, people in disaster situations try hard to choose the most reasonable option; whether it leads to danger is another matter. </p>
<p>Our research can help enhance the safety design of buildings, transport terminals and general evacuation protocols. In the meantime, it’s reassuring to know people will more or less rely on their rationality in emergency situations.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160623/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruggiero Lovreglio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers are using mixed reality technologies to investigate how people behave in in emergency situations. The findings are helping shape disaster responses.Ruggiero Lovreglio, Senior Lecturer, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1582792021-06-03T12:24:52Z2021-06-03T12:24:52ZHurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, floods – whatever your local risk, here’s how to be more weather-ready<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403801/original/file-20210601-17-qeke72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C0%2C5661%2C3728&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mark Poindexter puts a tarp on the damaged roof of his home in Gulf Breeze, Louisiana, on Aug. 29, 2020, in the aftermath of Hurricane Laura.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TropicalWeather/8c4502b0d6ec4dee9d34c9bd277de0ef/photo">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Summer in the U.S. means that it’s time to be ready for <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-another-active-atlantic-hurricane-season">hurricanes</a> and <a href="https://thedataface.com/2018/11/public-health/wildfires-map">wildfires</a>. The incidence of weather and climate disasters is <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2020-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-historical">increasing in the U.S.</a>, a trend due partly to <a href="https://theconversation.com/western-fires-are-burning-higher-in-the-mountains-at-unprecedented-rates-in-a-clear-sign-of-climate-change-159699">climate change</a> but also to human decisions. </p>
<p>Since the 1950s, population growth has <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13071/w13071.pdf">increased significantly in Sun Belt states</a>. Millions of people have moved to coastlines, from Texas to the Carolinas, putting more lives and property in harm’s way during hurricanes. Florida, the hurricane capital of the United States, now is the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/en/states">third-most-populous state in the nation</a>.</p>
<p>Recognizing that Americans are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="https://www.weather.gov/wrn/">Weather-Ready Nation initiative</a> is helping communities plan for events like violent tornadoes, destructive hurricanes and widespread flooding. As a <a href="https://www.weather.gov/people/salna-erik">meteorologist and supporter of this effort</a>, I believe that everyone should understand what kinds of severe weather hazards could affect their family and home and be ready for them. Here are some ways to do it.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1399531528904974337"}"></div></p>
<h2>What to do instead of taping windows</h2>
<p>For Atlantic and Gulf coast residents, hurricane preparedness has to be a way of life. It means knowing whether you live in a <a href="https://flash.org/pdf/2020_Hurricane_Evacuation_Zones.pdf">designated evacuation zone</a>. That’s key in the event of storm surge – when a hurricane pushes seawater up onto local beaches and inland areas. Readiness also means having a family and business disaster plan that details preparations, and maintaining a <a href="https://dem.fiu.edu/emergencies/emergency-kit/index.html">hurricane survival kit</a>. </p>
<p>Another priority is knowing how to protect your home and business from damaging winds. Conducting a home insurance review with your agent and scheduling a <a href="https://www.homeinspector.org/">wind mitigation inspection</a> will identify what you can do to strengthen and protect vulnerable parts of the building such as windows, entry doors, garage doors and roofs. </p>
<p>Adding metal hurricane shutters or hurricane-resistant windows can help. So can retrofitting the attic or eaves with <a href="https://apps.floridadisaster.org/hrg/content/walls/wood_frame_rtw_conn.asp">metal hurricane straps</a>, which connect the rafters to the walls to prevent the roof from blowing off.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5s4Iw3wDl5Y?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The owner of a Mexico Beach, Florida, house that survived Hurricane Michael, a Category 5 storm in 2018, describes his home’s stormproofing features.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here’s one step to skip: Putting tape onto windows for wind protection from a hurricane. Tape does nothing to reduce wind damage, so this is a waste of time. </p>
<p>Consumers also need to rethink how they shop for a new home in storm-prone areas. It’s OK to want granite countertops, walk-in closets and a safe neighborhood near schools and parks. But buyers should also consider how well a house is built, its age, the materials it contains, the shape and condition of the roof, and building code requirements at the time it was constructed. </p>
<p>And they should ask whether the house is located in a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps">flood-prone area</a>, has wind-resistant features or has been <a href="https://apps.floridadisaster.org/hrg/">retrofitted against hurricanes</a>. Even residents who don’t live in a zone where it is required should consider taking out flood insurance.</p>
<h2>Storm-testing buildings</h2>
<p>Florida International University’s <a href="https://www.ihrc.fiu.edu/">International Hurricane Research Center</a>, which is part of our <a href="https://eei.fiu.edu/">Extreme Events Institute</a>, was designated NOAA’s first Weather-Ready Nation ambassador in South Florida. Our <a href="https://fiu.designsafe-ci.org/">Wall of Wind</a> facility is capable of creating Category 5 hurricane conditions – winds with speeds over 157 mph. </p>
<p>Like crash testing for vehicles, wind testing can help ensure that structures, traffic signals and building components can hold up under stress. The Wall of Wind is part of the National Science Foundation’s <a href="https://www.designsafe-ci.org/about/">Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure program</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/d5qjZO7dVDg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A Wall of Wind demonstration shows how inexpensive building reinforcements can prevent costly hurricane damage.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For educational outreach, we host the yearly <a href="https://news.fiu.edu/2021/virtual-wall-of-wind-challenge-inspires-high-school-students-to-tackle-real-world-problems?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=FIU%20Newsletter">Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge</a>, in which teams of local high school students develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and solutions. And the Extreme Events Institute uses a <a href="https://eei.fiu.edu/equation/the-equation/">risk equation</a> to help the public understand and support measures to confront the “risk drivers” that lead to major losses.</p>
<p>For more about hurricane mitigation and preparedness, watch our 12-episode “<a href="https://mods.org/eyeofthestorm/">Eye of the Storm</a>” video series, or visit our <a href="https://huracanes.fiu.edu/">Spanish-language hurricane website</a>.</p>
<h2>Wildfires, tornadoes and floods</h2>
<p>NOAA’s <a href="https://www.weather.gov/">National Weather Service</a> is also investing in new forecasting tools and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/news/192203-strategic-plan">linking its forecasts to lifesaving decisions</a> made in every state and county. The goal is to provide timely forecasts that emergency managers, first responders, government officials, businesses and the public can act on.</p>
<p>Across the United States, Weather-Ready Nation ambassadors are preparing for many types of extreme weather events. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://theconversation.com/another-dangerous-fire-season-is-looming-in-the-western-u-s-and-the-drought-stricken-region-is-headed-for-a-water-crisis-160848">extreme wildfire season</a> is expected in many Western states. The Oregon Office of Emergency Management is asking residents to <a href="https://phys.org/news/2021-05-good-summer-wildfire-season.html">have a bag packed and to prepare an evacuation plan</a>. </p>
<p>Flooding can occur almost anywhere across the country, and hazards can develop quickly. Flooded roadways can be deadly, so take heed of NOAA’s “Turn Around Don’t Drown” message and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-turn-around-dont-drown">avoid walking or driving in flooded areas</a> – it could save your life. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/COLBDZEDGKN/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Tornado safety is critical. Tornado readiness includes <a href="https://www.weather.gov/oun/safety-severe-homesafety">knowing the safest room in your home</a> – usually a windowless interior room on the lowest floor – and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/nwr/">tuning in to NOAA Weather Radio</a>, which will provide severe-weather information directly from your local National Weather Service office. </p>
<p>During any severe weather event, such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-texas-blackouts-showed-how-climate-extremes-threaten-energy-systems-across-the-us-155834">February 2021 deep freeze in Texas</a>, the power may go out, so everyone should have flashlights and batteries on hand. Portable generators can be useful during extended outages, but <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/co/pdfs/generators.pdf">always operate them outdoors</a> to avoid the risk of <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/04/29/texas-carbon-monoxide-poisoning/">carbon monoxide poisoning</a>.</p>
<p>Apathy and complacency can also be dangerous when it comes to weather-driven disasters. In my view, weather readiness has to become a way of life – something that all Americans see as their responsibility. The best forecasts in the world may be useless if the public doesn’t respond or hasn’t taken the needed actions to protect themselves when extreme weather threatens.</p>
<p>Most importantly, remember to help your neighbors when needed, especially if they are elderly and can’t help themselves. In addition, consider supporting local nonprofits or churches that help residents in your community who have financial or transportation needs to be ready and safe. We are all in this together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158279/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik Salna currently leads education and outreach projects funded by the Florida Division of Emergency Management and the Inter-American Teacher Education Network (ITEN) with the Organization of American States (OAS).
</span></em></p>Federal weather scientists are pushing to make the US more ‘weather-ready,’ which could mean prepping for fires, flooding or storms depending on where you live. The common factor: thinking ahead.Erik Salna, Associate Director of Education and Outreach, Extreme Events Institute, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1358932020-04-13T19:33:32Z2020-04-13T19:33:32ZCold War-style preparedness could help fight future pandemics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326641/original/file-20200408-86439-10un8jp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2995%2C2425&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Air raid wardens in Washington, D.C., conduct a practice air raid.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%22Air_raid_wardens_at_a_sector_meeting_in_Washington,_DC,_discuss_the_zones_they_control_during_a_practice_air_raid.%22,_ca_-_NARA_-_535827.tif">Office for Emergency Management, Office of War Information/National Archives</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A key group of allies is missing in the U.S. effort to face the coronavirus pandemic: the American people. </p>
<p>In the wake of World War II and during the Cold War, the U.S. was <a href="https://training.fema.gov/hiedu/docs/dhs%20civil%20defense-hs%20-%20short%20history.pdf">the world’s best at planning and preparing</a> for mobilizing the citizenry to take action in an emergency. In those days, the anticipated emergency was a nuclear attack on the U.S., likely resulting in a loss of national leadership that required local governments and <a href="https://training.fema.gov/hiedu/docs/dhs%20civil%20defense-hs%20-%20short%20history.pdf">members of the public to step up</a>. </p>
<p>Every American was asked to help <a href="https://training.fema.gov/hiedu/docs/dhs%20civil%20defense-hs%20-%20short%20history.pdf">prepare for that possibility</a>, storing extra supplies, planning to communicate with family members and developing survival skills.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326317/original/file-20200408-108538-2nm6ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=85%2C55%2C384%2C485&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326317/original/file-20200408-108538-2nm6ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=85%2C55%2C384%2C485&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326317/original/file-20200408-108538-2nm6ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326317/original/file-20200408-108538-2nm6ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326317/original/file-20200408-108538-2nm6ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326317/original/file-20200408-108538-2nm6ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326317/original/file-20200408-108538-2nm6ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326317/original/file-20200408-108538-2nm6ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A poster from 1941 urged all Americans to contribute to community preparedness for emergencies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/96507339/">Government Printing Office, 1941/Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Eventually, this type of “<a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-8757-establishing-the-office-civilian-defense">civil defense</a>” <a href="https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12148.html">planning grew</a> to <a href="https://archive.org/details/homewardboundame02maye">incorporate responses</a> to <a href="http://www.civildefensemuseum.com/rescueserv/index.html">other extreme events</a>, such as hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquakes.</p>
<p>Over the latter half of the 20th century, the U.S. civil defense effort encouraged all Americans to be prepared to respond actively to a national emergency. </p>
<p>In recent years, however, Americans’ expectations have shifted from being ready to respond to passively waiting for help from a centralized, bureaucratic federal effort – usually led by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IKqXu-5jw60?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Bert the Turtle taught Americans to ‘duck and cover’ in the face of danger.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Civilian-led response after World War II</h2>
<p>As professors of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HsqWd7MAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">architecture</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1_FINjQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">urban planning</a> who study extreme events and historical forces shaping communities, we have firsthand experience in disaster response following Hurricanes Katrina and Maria. We have observed that federal emergency responses can often be poorly orchestrated and mismanaged, lacking the nimble effectiveness of local, citizen-organized efforts. That slows aid, and recovery.</p>
<p>But this was not always the case. Civil defense efforts once relied on the active efforts of citizens.</p>
<p>Created in 1947, the <a href="http://www.civildefensemuseum.com/history.html">National Security Resources Board</a> was charged with overseeing the nation’s civil defense preparations. The agency oversaw a coordinated communications effort that included reserving dedicated radio frequencies for broadcasting emergency information, issuing instructional posters and pamphlets. Its efforts also included <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2003/02/the-ridiculous-history-of-cold-war-civil-defense.html">producing short films for school-age children</a> such as “Bert the Turtle” and “Duck and Cover,” which taught kids ways they could help keep themselves safe.</p>
<p>The board was also the origin of the once-ubiquitous <a href="https://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/1379/what-happened-to-the-emergency-broadcast-system/">Emergency Broadcast System</a>, meant to give the public accurate information and instruction in an urgent situation. Its tests, including a script declaring that “this is a test … this is only a test,” would precede an ear-splitting tone interrupting radio and TV broadcasts.</p>
<p>Other civil defense efforts encouraged citizens to practice air raid drills, including <a href="https://nationalatomictestingmuseum.org/2019/05/02/duck-and-cover-the-history-of-u-s-civil-defense/">training students to shelter</a> under their classroom desks. Volunteers were mobilized to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKB3xALwNbU">stock and maintain provisions and medical supplies</a> in a decentralized network of fallout shelters in the basements of public buildings. This was common practice until the late 1970s. </p>
<p>One elementary school near Roswell, New Mexico, was even <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_eye/2014/07/04/abo_elementary_school_in_artesia_new_mexico_was_built_to_double_as_a_cold.html">built fully underground</a> to <a href="https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/cold-war-kids/">double as a fallout shelter</a>. Some <a href="https://www.rivertowns.net/news/971644-fallout-shelters-were-rage-50s-and-60s">homeowners even built and stocked</a> <a href="https://99percentinvisible.org/article/bunker-in-a-box-multifunctional-wwii-furniture-kits-designed-for-sheltering-in-place/">fallout shelters in their own basements</a>. These efforts were locally run, but coordinated under the umbrella structure of national civil defense. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ofH8RGwz5Dw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A 1987 test of the Emergency Broadcast System.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Federal authorities take over</h2>
<p>As the Cold War subsided, emergency management began to encompass other types of extreme events, which often required specialized equipment and expert training. That required a move to a more professional disaster response.</p>
<p>For instance, the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1970s/three-mile-island">Three Mile Island nuclear accident</a> and the <a href="https://buffalonews.com/2018/08/04/a-history-of-the-love-canal-disaster-1893-to-1998/">Love Canal contamination</a> outpaced local resources and expertise. In their wake, President Jimmy Carter signed <a href="https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12148.html">Executive Order 12148</a> in 1979, replacing a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/01/washington/01civil.html">civilian-led civil defense organization</a> with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The current system, run by FEMA, does not actively encourage community planning or citizen participation, though there are materials and videos available on <a href="https://www.fema.gov/">the agency’s website</a>.</p>
<p>The lack of civic coordination shifts responsibility away from citizens working collectively – and in fact has left people seemingly less prepared to respond to a crisis.</p>
<p>Schools have closed, and with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/us/politics/education-schools-coronavirus.html">no real backup plan</a>, most teachers have been forced to learn on the fly about how to provide distance learning and online education.</p>
<p>State and local governments struggle to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/nyregion/coronavirus-new-rochelle-containment.html">coordinate containment zones</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-quarantine-questions.html">enforce quarantines</a> and <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/a-covid-19-transportation-adapt-lessons-learned/">orchestrate the movement</a> of people and goods.</p>
<p>Without guidance, <a href="https://theconversation.com/still-waiting-for-help-the-lessons-of-hurricane-katrina-on-poverty-46666">people are waiting for help</a> to arrive. In the meantime, the uncertainty has fueled <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/smarter-living/wirecutter/dont-overdo-the-coronavirus-stockpiling.html">panic-buying that has emptied stores</a>, leaving critical care workers – and those too poor to buy in bulk or in advance – without reliable access to key foods and supplies.</p>
<p>The American medical care system is overwhelmed, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/22/us/fema-texas-florida-delays-.html">state and federal governments are struggling</a> to allocate supplies and distribute equipment. Large businesses and industries have been <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/trump-criticizes-gm-ceo-mary-barra-for-wanting-top-dollar-for-ventilators.html">slow or reluctant</a> to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-americas-mask-crunch-a-slow-government-reaction-and-an-industry-wary-of-liability/2020/04/02/b3155e2a-6f85-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html">shift production</a> to making critically needed supplies. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326643/original/file-20200408-5654-12pen1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326643/original/file-20200408-5654-12pen1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326643/original/file-20200408-5654-12pen1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326643/original/file-20200408-5654-12pen1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326643/original/file-20200408-5654-12pen1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326643/original/file-20200408-5654-12pen1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326643/original/file-20200408-5654-12pen1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326643/original/file-20200408-5654-12pen1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A distillery employee in Michigan fills bottles with hand sanitizer being made from the alcohol normally used in spirits the distillery sells.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Virus-Outbreak-Michigan/d18f02c220984ea39ce9863a75a79a03/4/0">AP Photo/Carlos Osorio</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Local groups move fast</h2>
<p>Small organizations are able to adapt: Many have quickly shifted to fill the immediate need. <a href="https://squaremktg.com/campaigns/WaouKQc0xGXsmLaz/landing">Small wineries</a>, microbreweries and distilleries are making hand sanitizer. <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/on-and-off-the-avenue/how-christian-siriano-turned-his-fashion-house-into-a-mask-factory">Garment and uniform companies</a> are making masks. <a href="https://www.pressherald.com/2020/04/07/bowdoin-college-3d-printing-face-shields-for-healthcare-workers-on-front-lines-of-pandemic/">Schools are using 3D printers</a> to produce face shields.</p>
<p>These examples demonstrate that small-scale approaches can be effective in producing big results. In contrast, larger organizations are more bureaucratic and slower to respond. These inverse economies of scale mirror civil defense efforts: Many working collectively but independently are sometimes more effective than a larger centralized effort.</p>
<p>When facing an unexpected crisis, some amount of disorganization is probably inevitable. But <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304231204576405700994655570">other countries</a>, such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/world/europe/spooked-by-russia-tiny-estonia-trains-a-nation-of-insurgents.html">Estonia</a>, <a href="https://www.forsvarsmakten.se/sv/om-forsvarsmakten/totalforsvaret/">Sweden</a>, <a href="https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10034393">Finland</a>, <a href="http://nscdc.gov.ng">Nigeria</a> and <a href="http://www.ses.org.au">Australia</a>, actively work to engage all citizens in disaster preparedness, first aid training and other efforts that give people clear and productive tasks to accomplish. </p>
<p>Following their example – and indeed the United States’ own history – could help create a system of federal oversight and coordination complemented by prepared and trained local responders. That could better prepare the public to pull together as a collective civic community when disaster next strikes.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since the Cold War, Americans have shifted from engaging in active self-rescue to passively waiting for help from a centralized, bureaucratic federal emergency response.Alex Bitterman, Professor of Architecture and Design, Alfred State College of Technology, The State University of New YorkDaniel Baldwin Hess, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, University at BuffaloLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1352662020-04-02T12:33:28Z2020-04-02T12:33:28ZCoronavirus: Strategic National Stockpile was ready, but not for this<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324644/original/file-20200401-23151-1ohrngg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=74%2C0%2C8256%2C5499&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of the Maryland Air National Guard arrange medical supplies for shipment from the Strategic National Stockpile.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2121498/maryland-guard-helping-with-strategic-national-stockpile-push/">Master Sgt. Christopher Schepers/Maryland Air National Guard</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the COVID-19 crisis unfolds, Americans have been hearing a lot about an obscure but vast federal trove of emergency supplies, the <a href="https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx">Strategic National Stockpile</a>. </p>
<p>Much of the discussion concerns its shortcomings. Hospitals and first responders have faced <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/desperate-for-medical-equipment-states-encounter-a-beleaguered-national-stockpile/2020/03/28/1f4f9a0a-6f82-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html">dire shortages</a> of critical equipment such as ventilators and protective masks. It is clear that the national stockpile does not have nearly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/us/governors-trump-coronavirus.html">enough of such supplies</a> to meet the present need. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, there are plenty of things in the stockpile that aren’t particularly helpful right now – botulism antitoxin, for instance, and millions of doses of smallpox vaccine. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Ec2QA54AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar</a> who focuses on the role of <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520295766/unprepared">expert knowledge in addressing an uncertain future</a>, I have long been interested in how decisions are made about what to put into the Strategic National Stockpile.</p>
<p>The question of what to store in case of an emergency points to a broader issue: how security and health officials decide which threats are most urgent to prepare for. This is a matter of collective judgment rather than technical calculation. </p>
<h2>Figuring out what to prepare for</h2>
<p>The overall contents of the national stockpile are classified, as are its locations. But some details are available in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/04/24/inside-the-secret-u-s-stockpile-meant-to-save-us-all-in-a-bioterror-attack/">journalistic accounts</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK396378/">governmental reports</a>, including the existence of at least six large warehouses scattered in different parts of the country. It was managed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention before being transferred to the assistant secretary for preparedness and response in the Department of Health and Human Services in 2018.</p>
<p>The Strategic National Stockpile was established in 1999, as health and security officials in the Clinton administration became increasingly worried about the massive stocks of anthrax and smallpox that the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1999/06/13/world/government-report-says-3-nations-hide-stocks-of-smallpox.html">Soviet Union had accumulated</a>. As the Soviet government collapsed and the Cold War ended, it was not clear where all those weaponized pathogens had gone – or who had them. For this reason, much of the Strategic National Stockpile consists of boxes and vials of countermeasures to address potential bioweapon attacks. </p>
<p>In 2001, a policy planning exercise called “Dark Winter,” conducted by a group of public officials at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland, simulated a devastating smallpox attack on the United States. According to the <a href="http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events-archive/2001_dark-winter/about.html">scenario</a>, developed by a D.C.-based biosecurity think tank, a shortage of smallpox vaccine led to widespread civil unrest and political breakdown. Participants were not able to contain the simulated outbreak using existing public health and policy measures.</p>
<p>In the aftermath of the exercise, officials added enough smallpox vaccine to the Strategic National Stockpile to be able to inoculate <a href="https://www.naccho.org/blog/articles/smallpox-preparedness-planning-understanding-the-strategic-national-stockpile-and-potential-weaponization#reflist">the entire U.S. population</a>. The assumption was that to avoid the breakdown seen in “Dark Winter,” the country would need to have sufficient vaccine available in advance of a future smallpox attack.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324648/original/file-20200401-23095-3u5doz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324648/original/file-20200401-23095-3u5doz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324648/original/file-20200401-23095-3u5doz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324648/original/file-20200401-23095-3u5doz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324648/original/file-20200401-23095-3u5doz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324648/original/file-20200401-23095-3u5doz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324648/original/file-20200401-23095-3u5doz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324648/original/file-20200401-23095-3u5doz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One small vial can contain 100 doses of a smallpox vaccine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Smallpox_vaccine.jpg">James Gathany/CDC/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New concerns arise</h2>
<p>But security officials were also concerned about other potential threats. To respond in the event of a chemical attack, the stockpile accumulated <a href="https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/products.aspx#_Toc523920172">2,000 packages</a> of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/04/24/inside-the-secret-u-s-stockpile-meant-to-save-us-all-in-a-bioterror-attack/">nerve agent antidote</a>. </p>
<p>To address the threat of an anthrax attack, it acquired stocks of a novel anthrax vaccine procured from a biotechnology company under a <a href="https://homelandprepnews.com/stories/33929-barda-will-procure-emergent-biosolutions-av7909-anthrax-vaccine-in-strategic-national-stockpile/">US$1.5 billion contract</a> with the government’s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority.</p>
<p>In the mid-2000s, planners began to focus on the possibility that the highly virulent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/3-211-29981-5_10">H5N1 bird flu</a> would mutate to become easily transmissible among humans. They added <a href="https://webapps.cap.org/apps/docs/committees/microbiology/panflu_final3_13_(2).pdf">millions of doses</a> of antiviral drugs – effective for flu, but not the coronavirus – and influenza vaccine to the stockpile. </p>
<p>Much of the effort and money – an annual budget of around $600 million – involved in maintaining the Strategic National Stockpile is devoted to ensuring that these biomedical countermeasures are stored properly and kept up-to-date. </p>
<h2>Unknowns remain</h2>
<p>As a result of all those efforts, the Strategic National Stockpile built up over the last 20 years was well-prepared for a range of possible threats – just not for the event that actually occurred. </p>
<p>One lesson is that stockpiling is not just a matter of storing large quantities of supplies and equipment; it also requires considering the larger question of which dangers are most pressing to address. Exercises and simulations can tell security planners where vulnerabilities lie in the present, but they cannot reveal what will actually occur in the future. </p>
<p>Given the current emphasis on maintaining limited inventories and carefully calibrated supply chains designed to deliver things only when they are needed, it may seem antiquated to store large amounts of supplies to remain available over an indefinite time horizon. </p>
<p>In fact, this type of government stockpiling of essential supplies is rooted in the era of industrial <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/12028/chapter/10">mobilization for total war</a>, when nations’ entire economies were converted to support a massive war effort.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324650/original/file-20200401-23086-1wdxnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324650/original/file-20200401-23086-1wdxnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324650/original/file-20200401-23086-1wdxnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324650/original/file-20200401-23086-1wdxnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324650/original/file-20200401-23086-1wdxnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324650/original/file-20200401-23086-1wdxnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324650/original/file-20200401-23086-1wdxnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324650/original/file-20200401-23086-1wdxnhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A stockpile of telecommunications equipment in Britain is ready for use after the invasion of Normandy in 1944.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-I-XEN-GBR-APHS351190-WWII-British-Isles/8cdfc4fd641e412a85b19ff5b4df4a28/5/0">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Waging an uncertain war</h2>
<p>The term “stockpile” did not come into common use until the ramp-up to World War II.</p>
<p>As part of its industrial mobilization effort, the U.S. government began storing large quantities of “critical and <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/12028/chapter/10#134">strategic materials</a>” – basic industrial ingredients like copper, tungsten and rubber – in anticipation of a cut-off of foreign supplies. After the war, government stockpiling expanded to include supplies necessary for the maintenance of civilian life, such as electrical generators, oil, food and medicine.</p>
<p>During the Cold War, the U.S. maintained an extensive medical stockpile designed for use in the aftermath of a nuclear attack. By 1955, the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/13308833">civil defense medical stockpile contained</a> 9 million doses of penicillin, 33 million capsules of broad-spectrum antibiotics, 2 million sets for collecting and transfusing whole blood, 132,000 radiological monitoring instruments, and over 25 million doses of vaccines and antitoxins for controlling communicable diseases and defending against biological warfare.</p>
<p>These supplies were located in 32 storage sites around the country, in small communities located within four hours’ drive of major cities. </p>
<p>However, as weapons became more powerful, the public grew increasingly skeptical that nuclear war could be survived. As a result, congressional support for maintaining the stockpile diminished. </p>
<p>By the late 1960s, over $100 million in unused medical supplies were gradually deteriorating in storage facilities around the country. The federal government disposed of its entire medical stockpile and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1973/02/19/archives/us-to-dispose-of-huge-medical-supplies.html">closed down the program</a> in 1974. </p>
<p>It was not until the late 1990s, in the face of the newly perceived threat of bioterrorism, that the U.S. government returned to the technique of stockpiling medical supplies for a future calamity. </p>
<p>Today, the Strategic National Stockpile is designed to protect the population against a wide range of potential threats – but does not have enough of what is needed to fight the coronavirus pandemic. </p>
<p>This points to the limitations of stockpiling as a measure of security. Stockpiled supplies inevitably degrade or become obsolete; the maintenance of a stockpile is continually subject to budgetary struggles, in part because it is impossible to know whether its supplies will ever be needed. The stockpile is assembled in preparation for a particular imagined future, but the actual future rarely turns out as anticipated.</p>
<p>[<em>Get facts about coronavirus and the latest research.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=upper-coronavirus-facts">Sign up for our newsletter.</a>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Lakoff has received funding from the National Science Foundation, the Social Science Research Council, and other government and non-profit agencies.</span></em></p>The paradox of the stockpile is that it’s meant to protect against future threats, but is limited by today’s imagination about what those threats might be.Andrew Lakoff, Professor of Sociology, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1335052020-03-17T12:44:56Z2020-03-17T12:44:56ZCoronavirus: Canada’s response hits a turning point<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320484/original/file-20200313-115094-1e0u7m5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4567%2C3370&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A health-care worker prepares for the opening of the COVID-19 Assessment Centre in Ottawa, during a media tour on March 13, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>COVID-19 is an emerging risk for which the consequences are still unknown. That the virus could have <a href="http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/ecdc-covid-19-not-containable-set-overwhelm-hospitals">potentially catastrophic health</a> and <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/7-extraordinary-graphs-which-explain-the-economic-impact-of-covid-19">economic consequences</a> means that we must adopt a precautionary approach. Thus far, public health officials have focused on learning about the virus and containing it as best as they can. </p>
<p>As we learned in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/capa.12169">our study of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic</a>, part of the danger in addressing a pandemic is that we can become lodged in a prolonged state of learning. </p>
<p>Due to <a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2">the speed at which COVID-19 spreads</a>, we need to move beyond learning about the risk and start putting an operational plan in place to address the possible outcomes. This operational phase marks a different stage in the process. </p>
<h2>Intervention</h2>
<p>Those operational plans have started to emerge, prompted partly by warnings from the United States government’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). </p>
<p>At the end of February, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html">the CDC warned</a> that the virus will likely spread across the U.S., which will result in large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. The CDC noted that schools, child-care centres and critical service providers, as well as common workplaces and public gatherings, may also be affected by large-scale absenteeism. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/being-prepared.html#a3">Public Health Agency of Canada has advised that social distancing measures</a>, which are recommended to fight the spread of COVID-19, may have wide-ranging effects on individuals, communities and businesses. </p>
<p>On March 16, the government of Canada announced that <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/pm-trudeau-to-announce-international-flight-restrictions-1.4854503">international flights will soon be funnelled</a> into a handful of airports. The previous week, <a href="https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/advisories?_ga=2.25896061.1981175026.1584197739-392281889.1584197739">Canadians abroad were advised</a> to return home.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316661/original/file-20200221-92507-bvcstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316661/original/file-20200221-92507-bvcstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316661/original/file-20200221-92507-bvcstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316661/original/file-20200221-92507-bvcstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316661/original/file-20200221-92507-bvcstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316661/original/file-20200221-92507-bvcstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316661/original/file-20200221-92507-bvcstx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An electron microscope image issued by U.S. National Institutes of Health in February 2020 showing the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV, the virus that causes COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(NIAID-RML via AP)</span></span>
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<p>Intervention makes a difference. <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries">China has been able to slow the spread of the disease, but not without dramatic government actions</a> of forced quarantine and isolation. These kinds of interventions are considered more difficult to achieve in a democratic state. Increasingly, Canadians are <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/latest-travel-health-advice.html">being asked to self-quarantine</a>. Time will tell if the strategy is effective.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-weekly-expert-analysis-from-the-conversation-global-network-133646">Coronavirus weekly: expert analysis from The Conversation global network</a>
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<p>Co-ordinating a response is a complex task. Timely information is important when responding to, and trying to contain, communicable diseases. Information gathering and sharing, however, represents only one aspect of controlling a threat. </p>
<p>We need to know that <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-rail-blockades-crisis-management-plans-protect-companies-132432">health-care service providers and other owners and operators of critical infrastructure</a> are adopting appropriate standards and behaviours to address the circumstances as described by the CDC. These standards and behaviours need to be adopted equally across similar jurisdictions. This common action reduces confusion and doubt. </p>
<h2>Lessons from H1N1</h2>
<p>Notwithstanding government efforts, experience suggests it is reasonable to adopt a degree of skepticism about our collective readiness. When seemingly healthy 13-year-old Evan Frustaglio died suddenly of H1N1 in 2009, the emotionally charged event <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/swine-flu-screw-up/">drove up demand for the vaccine across the country practically overnight</a>. The health-care system was caught off-guard by the surge, despite months of planning. </p>
<p>Government pointed to the role that an anxious media had played in amplifying the risk. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/capa.12169">our study of H1N1</a>, we noted only 14 per cent of H1N1 articles referred to Frustaglio in the 30 days following his death; many articles included criticisms of government operations following the surge in demand. </p>
<p>Efforts to blame the media only underscore the fact that a pandemic plan needs to take media reporting into account. The government needs to think about how to use the media to communicate its message and respond to emotionally charged coverage when it occurs. </p>
<p>When vulnerable populations like children become ill, we are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/capa.12169">at risk of dramatic media coverage</a>. The public can be volatile; how people feel today may not give us an indication of how they will react tomorrow. This can have an impact on our operational plans as it did in 2009.</p>
<h2>Response planning</h2>
<p>Increased demand for health services needs to be addressed with an effective response that meets public expectations, which will change over time and will be shaped by numerous sources including media, government and lived experiences. </p>
<p>Achieving such a response requires that plans emphasize transparency, not strictly in what we know about the spread of the disease but also in the operations that are in place to address community needs. Warnings about the spread of a disease must be communicated in appropriate context, such as providing probability data (if possible), as well as in absolute numbers, and with advice about actions people can take to address the risk. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320485/original/file-20200313-115083-1fyts2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320485/original/file-20200313-115083-1fyts2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320485/original/file-20200313-115083-1fyts2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320485/original/file-20200313-115083-1fyts2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320485/original/file-20200313-115083-1fyts2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320485/original/file-20200313-115083-1fyts2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320485/original/file-20200313-115083-1fyts2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People line up outside of the COVID-19 Assessment Centre in Ottawa, 45 minutes after its scheduled opening on March 13, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
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<p>Communications must almost always be led by experts with responsibility; <a href="https://www.hilltimes.com/2017/03/15/canadians-trust-science-cbc-media-government-though-conservatives-less-trusting-survey/99868">scientific experts are particularly trusted</a>. Politicians are there to provide democratic leadership. At times, decisions will be political, especially in discussions between jurisdictions and with opposition parties, and when there are difficult trade-offs to make. Still, the government is right to move forward on the basis of the best expert advice, a theme the prime minister <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-covid-19-1.5496367">refers to regularly</a>. </p>
<p>Public agencies will have to show adaptive and surge capacity, as well as diverse means to accomplish mission-critical tasks as new and unexpected conditions emerge. This is a lesson not just for the health sector but for all critical sectors, such as manufacturing, transportation, education, and water and power supply, the operations of which may be affected by the virus.</p>
<p>Mistakes are also likely to occur from time to time. Public agencies will have to be honest; the public will have to be reasonable.</p>
<p>COVID-19 may not be a devastating event; the point is that no one knows when it comes to these types of risks. Whether or not it is serious, <a href="https://youtu.be/Z_ywPtBc_jM">the impact of planning</a> is already starting to be felt. It is now incumbent upon the government and those who deliver key services to plan for reasonable worst-case scenarios — cases that are known to have happened in other Western jurisdictions or during pandemics. </p>
<p>Adaptive capacity does not come naturally to bureaucracies; we value them for their stability, not their capacity to change. Frontline health-care services are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2005.04.018">under pressure already during the influenza season</a>. It is not realistic to think this service in particular can cope with a wide-scale health emergency without more resources and creative thinking, or without planned responses to different magnitudes of such an event.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133505/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Quigley receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC).
Kevin Quigley is the Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance at Dalhousie University.</span></em></p>As response to COVID-19 moves from a learning phase to an operational phase, lessons from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic can inform Canada’s action plan.Kevin Quigley, Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1287812019-12-13T04:08:35Z2019-12-13T04:08:35ZAustralia needs a national crisis plan, and not just for bushfires<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306754/original/file-20191213-85397-15c6ubq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bushfires aren't the only catastrophic emergency Australia is likely to see. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Calls are growing for a national bushfire plan, including from former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who says they are an issue of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/national-security-issue-turnbull-tells-qa-morrison-must-step-up-response-to-bushfire-crisis">national security</a> and the federal government must provide hands-on leadership. </p>
<p>It’s true that more people are living in high-risk bushfire areas, emergency services are stretched and the climate is rapidly changing. Future crises are inevitable. We must consider the prospect of a monstrous bushfire season, the likes of which we’ve never seen.</p>
<p>But bushfires aren’t the only catastrophe Australia must prepare for. If we are to create a national crisis plan, we must go much further than bushfire planning.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/12-simple-ways-you-can-reduce-bushfire-risk-to-older-homes-122712">12 simple ways you can reduce bushfire risk to older homes</a>
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<h2>Not just bushfires</h2>
<p>In the decade since Victoria’s Black Saturday fires, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-has-australia-learned-from-black-saturday-111245">we have improved</a> fire predictions, night-time aerial firefighting, construction codes and emergency warnings. All of these have no doubt saved many lives.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-has-australia-learned-from-black-saturday-111245">What has Australia learned from Black Saturday?</a>
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<p>There are calls for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/scott-morrison-rejects-calls-for-more-help-saying-volunteer-firefighters-want-to-be-there">more resources</a> to fight fires, as part of a coordinated national plan. But few people have proposed an all-encompassing vision of such a plan.</p>
<p>For a start, it should not be confined solely to bushfires. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901114000999">Far more people die</a> during heatwaves and residential housefires. Tropical cyclones, floods and hail each <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609406">cost our economy more</a>.</p>
<p>Any plan must provide a strategic vision across these various facets for at least the next ten to 20 years.</p>
<h2>A national firefighting force?</h2>
<p>Calls for a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/11/former-fire-and-emergency-chiefs-push-for-national-bushfire-emergency-summit">national firefighting force</a> to supplement existing state resources are fundamentally short-sighted. A national force – quite apart from the level of duplication it would create – would spend much of its time idle. </p>
<p>Even during severe fires, such as those now raging, there would be limits to its usefulness. At a certain point, the size and energy of the fires means no amount of firefighting technology will extinguish them all. </p>
<p>Research conducted by Risk Frontiers, the Australian National University and Macquarie University through the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, has focused on better planning and preparedness for catastrophic events. </p>
<p>This research concludes it is <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/catastrophic">unrealistic</a> to resource the emergency management sector for rare but truly catastrophic events. It is wildly expensive to remain 100% prepared for the worst-case scenario. </p>
<p>Instead of simply scaling up existing arrangements, we need to think differently.</p>
<p>Bush firefighting could be improved by innovation and research. Future investments must focus on rapidly detecting and extinguishing ignitions before they spread out of control. </p>
<h2>Everyone is responsible</h2>
<p>States and territories are traditionally responsible for emergency management in Australia. But almost by definition, a catastrophic disaster exceeds one’s capacity to cope - inevitably drawing on nationwide resources. </p>
<p>This means preparing for catastrophic disasters is everyone’s responsibility. </p>
<p>Existing plans allow for assistance across state borders, and between state and federal governments. But there is no national emergency legislation defining the Commonwealth’s role, or assigning responsibility for responding to a truly national disaster. </p>
<p>The Australian Defence Force has a well-defined support role in natural disasters, but should not be relied on due to its global commitments.</p>
<p>However, resource-sharing between states could benefit from more investment in programs that enable emergency services to work better together. </p>
<p>International help in massive emergencies also needs better planning, particularly around timing and integration with local agencies.</p>
<p>Non-government organisations, businesses and communities already make valuable contributions, but could play a more central role. We could look to the US, which successfully uses a whole-of-community approach.</p>
<p>This might mean emergency services help community organisation provide aid or carry out rescues, rather than do it themselves. These organisations are also best placed to make sure <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-makes-homelessness-even-worse-heres-how-we-can-help-82758">vulnerable members of the community</a> are cared for.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-makes-homelessness-even-worse-heres-how-we-can-help-82758">Extreme weather makes homelessness even worse. Here's how we can help</a>
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<p>The most important task is to reduce the risk in the first place. The vast majority of disaster-related spending goes on recovery rather than risk reduction. Calls from the <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/disaster-funding#report">Productivity Commission</a> and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (<a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/67832">APRA</a>) for more disaster mitigation funding have been largely ignored.</p>
<p>The federal government’s recent <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-disaster-risk-reduction-framework.pdf">National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework</a> highlights the need to identify highest-priority disaster risks and mitigation opportunities. </p>
<p>This would see priority investments in flood mitigation and strengthening of buildings against cyclones in northern Australia. (This will also help address insurance affordability.)</p>
<p>Land-use planning needs to be improved to reduce the chance that future developments are exposed to unreasonable risks. </p>
<p>Infrastructure must be constructed to the highest standards and, following a disaster, <a href="https://theconversation.com/moving-grantham-relocating-flood-prone-towns-is-nothing-new-4878">destroyed buildings should be rebuilt away from dangerous areas</a>. </p>
<p>Finally, communities have the most critical role. We must understand our local risk and be ready to look after ourselves and each other. Governments at all levels must facilitate this spirit of self-reliance. Local leadership is crucial to any crisis plan and communities need to be involved in its construction.</p>
<p>Eastern Australia’s bushfire crisis has triggered emotional arguments for throwing resources at the problem. But planning must be careful and evidenced-based, taking into account the changing face of natural disasters. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-living-with-fire-and-facing-our-fears-128093">Friday essay: living with fire and facing our fears</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Gissing receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Eburn receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. </span></em></p>We don’t need to send in the army every time there’s a natural disaster, or create a national fire fighting force. We need to think practically about working together in emergencies.Andrew Gissing, General Manager, Risk Frontiers, Adjunct Fellow, Macquarie UniversityMichael Eburn, Associate Professor in Law, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1279652019-12-02T19:13:30Z2019-12-02T19:13:30ZIf our plan fails, can we improvise?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304077/original/file-20191127-112484-k74efv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C998%2C538&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Oops!</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is an old Yiddish proverb that says <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/our-emotional-footprint/201602/man-plans-and-god-laughs">“Man plans and God laughs”</a>. Most – if not all – of us have experienced the truth of this proverb, and faced the failure of our plans. No matter how well we are planning, fluid, changing and unpredictable business environments will prevent our plans being fully implemented. So the question is whether we should continue planning, knowing that circumstances will render our plans unviable. Shouldn’t we just “go with the flow” and improvise our way into the future?</p>
<p>Maybe it isn’t a question of either/or, but rather a question of both/and. In this article we will look at how organisations can plan for the unforeseen, and reconcile thorough planning with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0148296317304447">improvised adaptation</a>. We propose that modern organisations must be able to combine these two paradoxical elements, if they are to prevail in a business environment characterised by rapid and constant change.</p>
<h2>Searching for creative solutions</h2>
<p>Teams being the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/0471264385.wei1214">pillar organisational elements</a>, it is through teams that organisations create the conditions for an adequate response to changing and unpredictable market dynamics. And they do so using an <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2F0021-9010.91.6.1189">adaptation process</a> that comprises <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1359432X.2014.1001376">adjusting relevant team processes</a> as a reaction to the disruptions that require such adaptation. However, change is often so rapid, and the responses required so urgent, that teams have no time to plan before acting and are forced to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0148296317304447">plan and act simultaneously</a>, i.e. improvise.</p>
<p>When confronted with a disruption that jeopardises the initial plan, and time is scarce, teams may pursue several options: they may insist on sticking to the same plan, even knowing that the base assumptions have changed; they may try to develop a new plan before implementing it, wasting precious time in its elaboration; they may even freeze in the face of the collapse of organisational order; however, they can also improvise by using the tools available to develop a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2393339?seq=1">creative solution</a>.</p>
<p>Improvisation can however have negative consequences if the agents of improvisation are inadequately prepared to handle such extreme scenarios. An extreme example of bad improvisation is the disastrous case of the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0007681315001494">fatal sinking of the <em>Costa Concordia</em></a> ship on the shores of Isola del Giglio, an island off the west coast of Italy. The captain ordered a “salute” to the island, which requires sailing near its coast, with dramatic consequences. The case revealed that when team members are poorly equipped to improvise, they can move away from organisational values, or prioritise the satisfaction of personal needs over group goals.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304078/original/file-20191127-112531-1h91egi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304078/original/file-20191127-112531-1h91egi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304078/original/file-20191127-112531-1h91egi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304078/original/file-20191127-112531-1h91egi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304078/original/file-20191127-112531-1h91egi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304078/original/file-20191127-112531-1h91egi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304078/original/file-20191127-112531-1h91egi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Apollo 13 lunar mission, an example of successful improvisation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nasa.gov/">NASA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The good news is that <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-2370.00017">improvisation can be trained</a> and teams can be prepared to improvise, increasing the likelihood of positive outcomes. Three elements can increase the quality of team improvised adaptation: an experimental culture, minimal structures, and transactive memory systems.</p>
<h2>An experimental culture</h2>
<p>An <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01449290802164487">experimental culture</a> is one that promotes action, in which exploration and creativity are rewarded and mistakes are tolerated. For teams to improvise effectively, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-2370.00017">different skills and knowledge are required</a>, which calls for each team member to contribute. As a consequence team members must feel that any potential errors will be regarded as sources of learning, and that their ideas will be supported and encouraged.</p>
<p>Organisations with closed, rigid, and non-experimental cultures will prevent team members from tackling disruptions by adapting team routines to the new situation. By contrast an experimental culture will <a href="https://journals.aom.org/doi/abs/10.5465/amr.2005.15281441">provide the capabilities</a> that allow team members to change priorities and plans in order to improvise solutions best suited to unexpected events. This requires organisations to embrace the <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9780203361603/chapters/10.4324/9780203361603-16">“aesthetic of imperfection”</a> by treating errors as opportunities, and not regarding imperfection as synonymous with failure. This is particularly the case in situations where circumstances have changed and previous plans are no longer fully viable. A paradigmatic example of successful improvisation is <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Claus_Rerup/publication/279881984_'Houston_We_Have_a_Problem'_Anticipation_and_Improvisation_as_Sources_of_Organizational_Resilience/links/559d0d5308ae9dcf264f0435.pdf">the Apollo 13 lunar mission</a>, in which, faced with failure of the life support system, the astronauts improvised an immediate repair of the system using materials found on the spacecraft. Another example is the successful development of an <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378720617306419">online messaging system by Tencent</a>, a Chinese multinational specialised in various Internet-related services and products. Improvisational methods were prominent and effective in development of the system. The product was known for its rapid adjustment to changing user demands, technologies and competitor activity, and this was recognised as a major success factor.</p>
<h2>Minimal structures</h2>
<p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-2370.00017">Minimal structures</a> comprise four key elements: invisible control mechanisms, clearly defined objectives, short-term milestones, and <a href="https://repositorio.iscte-iul.pt/handle/10071/16046">activity critical elements</a>. <em>Invisible control mechanisms</em> ensure that creativity is not limited. For example, establishing a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/009365090017002001">well-defined set of simple rules</a> allows for more creativity, as all team members have a common precisely-understood basis for developing their performance. <em>Clearly defined objectives</em> ensure that while teams are in the midst of disruptive events they remain focused on organisational goals. By themselves these objectives do not define action, so leaving room for improvisation; however, they are strongly <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-2370.00017">normative in relation to the outcomes of such action</a>. <em>Short-term milestones</em> foster a sense of urgency and permit the control of actions taken as the situation unfolds. This will allow the detection of deviations from organisational objectives, allowing for timely correction of the course of action.</p>
<p>Also, the fact that these milestones can be planned in advance gives the team some <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2393701?origin=JSTOR-pdf&seq=1">sense of structure and stability</a> within the rather chaotic development of the disruptive situation. Finally, <em>activity-critical elements</em> comprise those elements that are fundamental to the activity, without which the task cannot be performed. For improvisation to be effective, it is important that the number of critical elements is small so that the team can ensure that they are fully executed in a limited time. All members of the team must know what they are so they can rapidly coordinate the elements’ implementation while improvising a new solution.</p>
<p>For example, it has been observed that successful new <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0170840601225001">product development teams</a> often resort to improvisation. In order to be effective they are very autonomous and intensively interactive (invisible control mechanisms), have specific development goals and priorities (clear objectives), progressively develop several prototypes (short-term milestones), and identify critical quality criteria and performance standards (critical elements).</p>
<h2>Transactive memory systems</h2>
<p>Transactive memory systems refer to the knowledge about <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/joms.12211">who knows what</a> on a team. When teams are improvising, access to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01449290802164487">its members’ knowledge</a> will leverage the team’s ability to recombine their previous experiences and develop new and effective responses. In addition, through having this knowledge, teams can increase their implicit coordination which means their members can anticipate each other’s actions and dynamically adjust their behaviour without expressly communicating with each other.</p>
<p>When teams experience stressful situations, their members may experience high cognitive load. This means that they may find it difficult to process all the information available, preventing them from adequately reacting to the disruptions. By having a clear understanding of who knows what within the team, they are able to more effectively process new information as it arises and thus increase the likelihood of success in <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2013-30650-003">performing improvisation actions</a>. For example, emergency response teams such as firefighters cannot exactly predict what expertise will be need in a particular situation. Therefore, the knowledge of all team members regarding the specific skills of all other members becomes critical to a positive outcome.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299218/original/file-20191029-183103-1t6i1yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299218/original/file-20191029-183103-1t6i1yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299218/original/file-20191029-183103-1t6i1yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299218/original/file-20191029-183103-1t6i1yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299218/original/file-20191029-183103-1t6i1yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299218/original/file-20191029-183103-1t6i1yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299218/original/file-20191029-183103-1t6i1yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299218/original/file-20191029-183103-1t6i1yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">During an emergency response, it is essential to know everyone’s expertise in order to deal with uncertainty as effectively as possible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">M.G. White/Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>When time is abundant and uncertainty is low, planning meets the needs of the organisation almost perfectly. However, as Prussian military leader Helmuth Graf von Moltke so eloquently stated in the late 1800s, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmuth_von_Moltke_the_Elder">“No plan survives contact with the enemy”</a>. When time is scarce and uncertainty is high, good planning is not enough. Instead, <a href="https://journals.aom.org/doi/abs/10.5465/amr.2005.15281441">“improvisation becomes an alternative or complementary orientation”</a>.</p>
<p>However, for improvisation to work some conditions must be met: organisations must create an experimental culture in which errors are accepted as part of a learning process; teams must develop minimal structures based on invisible control mechanisms, clear objectives, short-term milestones, and a small number of activity-critical elements; and finally, team members must have a clear knowledge of who knows what within the team, so they can increase implicit coordination. Even if all these conditions are met, positive outcomes are not guaranteed when teams improvise. However, given the uncertainty of unanticipated disruptions and extreme time constraints, the chances of success dramatically increase.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127965/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>António Abrantes ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Is it possible to plan for the unforeseen? Some basic principles allow careful preparation to be reconciled with quickly shifting circumstances.António Abrantes, Professeur permanent, ICN Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1098432019-01-15T17:06:38Z2019-01-15T17:06:38ZThe shutdown will harm the health and safety of Americans, even after it’s long over<p>With the U.S. federal government shutdown now the longest in history, it’s important to understand what a shutdown means for the health and safety of Americans. </p>
<p>The good news is that in the short run, the consequences are relatively few. But, as a researcher who studies natural disaster planning, I believe that Americans should be worried about the federal government’s long-term ability to ensure good public health and protect the public from disasters. </p>
<p>As the shutdown draws on, it increasingly weakens the government’s ability to protect Americans down the road, long after federal workers are allowed to go back to work. Many of these effects are largely invisible and may feel intangible because they don’t currently affect specific individuals. </p>
<p>However, the shutdown poses a very real threat to preparedness for future emergencies, such as natural disasters and disease outbreaks. It also damages the government’s ability to recruit and retain the experts needed to work at the cutting edge of public health.</p>
<h2>Disaster preparedness and response</h2>
<p>Much funding for disaster recovery that is already underway is funded in appropriations separate from those that fund the shuttered parts of government. </p>
<p>On Dec. 26, however, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which contracts private contractors for a large share of their work, <a href="https://www.fbo.gov/index.php?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=bea5bf679b13317877af2f6738103a10&tab=core&_cview=0">ordered its contractors to cease working</a> on several projects. Even for programs with funding, progress is made difficult by a shortage of several thousand staff members. </p>
<p>When President Trump signaled to the Senate that he would not sign into law the appropriations bills that had passed the House, leading to the shutdown, <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2018/12/20/in-last-ditch-move-lawmakers-push-to-renew-pandemic-preparedness-bill-before-end-of-year/?rel=0">funding with bipartisan support for disaster recovery died too</a>. This impedes disaster relief efforts <a href="https://grist.org/article/heres-how-the-government-shutdown-hurts-disaster-recovery/">in the states that experienced disaster in the past two years</a>. Among others, it leaves victims of the forest fires in California and victims of Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas waiting for crucial help needed to recover. </p>
<p>The shutdown also weakens the government’s ability to foresee, prevent and respond to upcoming natural disasters. For example, hurricane modelers with NOAA, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/another-casualty-of-the-government-shutdown-hurricane-preparedness/">the agency chiefly responsible for storm forecasts</a>, are furloughed.</p>
<p>In California, dozens of people recently died in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/us/camp-fire-paradise-cause.html">the worst forest fire in the state’s history</a>, while more than 10,000 homes were destroyed. These forest fires were so severe <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/experts-blame-multiple-causes-for-california-fires/4661305.html">in part due to how forests have been managed</a>. However, more than half of all of California’s forests are managed by the federal government. During the shutdown, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/13/684894893/shutdown-could-have-long-term-effects-on-wildfire-disaster-response">those forests are not being managed at all</a>. </p>
<p>In general, first responders and emergency experts use the off season to prepare for the next disaster season, but reports show that the prolonged shutdown is preventing some of this preparation, such as training <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/13/684894893/shutdown-could-have-long-term-effects-on-wildfire-disaster-response">for essential staff</a> and <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/another-casualty-of-the-government-shutdown-hurricane-preparedness/">forecasters</a>. </p>
<p>More scary still is the possibility of a widespread disease. The lapse in funding also means that <a href="http://www.astho.org/Programs/Preparedness/Public-Health-Emergency-Law/Emergency-Authority-and-Immunity-Toolkit/Pandemic-and-All-Hazards-Preparedness-Act-Fact-Sheet/">Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act</a> did not renew as expected. This act lets the federal government fund the development of emergency medicine, as well as new medications in advance of future outbreaks, among many other disaster preparedness functions it funds. Even with a fully functioning federal government, <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-years-severe-flu-exposes-a-serious-flaw-in-our-medical-system-90208">several critical supply chains</a> broke down during last year’s flu season, preventing delivery of basic medical goods like saline. </p>
<p>The shutdown severely weakens the ability of the federal government to respond to new threats, even after the shutdown has ended. </p>
<h2>Losing dedicated public servants in public health</h2>
<p>After the shutdown is over, it will probably also prove difficult for the U.S. to retain some of the staff who are crucial to the success of public health – even more so than in most other sectors of the federal government which will also struggle to retain its public servants. </p>
<p>Roughly half of the staff at the Department of Health and Human Services are deemed essential and continue to work despite the shutdown. The other half has been sent home. But <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-2018-employees-work-without-pay/">neither group is getting paid</a>.</p>
<p>During brief shutdowns, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/11/politics/past-shutdowns-history/index.html">many of which have historically lasted only one to three days</a>, such a lapse in pay is frustrating, but typically a surmountable challenge for most federal workers. During a shutdown lasting weeks, with no end in sight, it means hundreds of thousands of families struggle to pay for rent, school fees, medical care and other expenses essential for their own safety and well-being.</p>
<p>For many personal contractors, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/05/29/qa-for-federal-workers-federal-vs-contractor-workforces/?utm_term=.a4603ee8fcc9">who make up hundreds of thousands of the federal government workforce</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/12/business/contractors-government-shutdown-effect.html">the loss of pay may be permanent</a>.</p>
<p>This will all make it substantially less attractive to be a federal worker in the future. That is especially true for workers in public health. Although federal jobs often pay as well or even better than the private sector, <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52637-federalprivatepay.pdf">that is not true for the field of public health, where workers often take pay cuts to become public servants</a>. </p>
<p>To make matters worse, the president has signaled that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/business/trump-federal-pay-freeze.html">federal salaries will be cut for 2019</a>. Together, the pay cut and the shutdown may push government employees to join the private sector, leaving the federal government less capable of taking on public health challenges and disasters in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morten Wendelbo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The shutdown poses a very real threat to preparedness for future emergencies, such as natural disasters and disease outbreaks.Morten Wendelbo, Research Fellow, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/937092018-03-28T10:42:20Z2018-03-28T10:42:20ZActive shooter drills may reshape how a generation of students views school<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212289/original/file-20180327-109172-18el4ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A police officer portrays an active shooter with an assault rifle loaded with dummy rounds.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Charles Krupa</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent school shootings and the March for Our Lives rallies held in cities around the world on March 24 have rekindled debates over how to keep students safe. </p>
<p>“The notion of ‘it can’t happen here’ is no longer a notion,” said <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/20/us/great-mills-high-school-shooting/index.html">Sheriff Tim Cameron</a> of St. Mary’s County, Maryland after a student opened fire on March 20 at Great Mills High School, killing one student and injuring another.</p>
<p>Increasingly, schools are turning to active shooter drills and videos to prepare students and staff to face a gunman. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_222Y44AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">sociologist</a> who studies the social impacts of security strategies, I am concerned about the unintended ethical and political consequences of these exercises.</p>
<p>All students deserve safe learning environments. Yet training kids to take responsibility for their own survival while treating gun violence as inevitable may make schools – even those that are never the site of a shooting – feel unsafe. Effects like this need to be weighed against the potential benefits of active shooter training to ensure that measures to protect students do not cause unintended harm.</p>
<h2>Ethical dilemmas of ‘run, hide, fight’</h2>
<p>By 2013, over <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d15/tables/dt15_233.65.asp">two-thirds of public schools</a> in the U.S. used <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q27GFEuOuho">lockdown drills</a> to prepare for an active shooter. In these exercises, students huddle in classrooms to practice waiting for help from police and SWAT teams. </p>
<p>School shootings continued unabated, however, so the Department of Education began to encourage students and teachers to plan a more active response. Rather than huddle and wait, students and teachers <a href="https://www.ready.gov/active-shooter">are now told to</a> “run, hide, fight.”</p>
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<p>Lockdown and “run, hide, fight” active shooter drills are designed to habituate students and staff to an active shooter situation. However, some schools have faced criticism for using overly realistic simulations. For example, when officers armed with rifles burst into a Florida school for an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRHcbJ9DHEg&t=14s">unannounced drill</a>, parents were outraged. </p>
<p>Training materials designed for teachers, like a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOkHepDdTlM">computer simulation</a> produced by the Department of Homeland Security, may partially shield children from seeing scary scenarios. However, even when schools focus their trainings on teachers, drills remind students of the possibility that they will face a shooter. A <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCd6SAeWbHM&t=306s">video</a> created by the Santa Ana Unified School District tells teachers to develop a “run, hide, fight” plan and urges them, “Communicate these plans to students. Rehearse, practice, and drill each plan on a regular basis.” </p>
<p>By having students practice responding to a pretend emergency, school administrators hope they will respond the same way to a real one. However, training exercises that instill fear may have negative effects on students. <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022146514567576">Research shows</a> that exposure to neighborhood violence alters kids’ cognitive performance, affecting how quickly and accurately they respond to cues on a computer screen. If simulated or anticipated violence has similar impacts on kids’ cognition, it could impact their classroom performance.</p>
<p>In addition, moral lessons are hidden within the “run, hide, fight” model. Training videos built on this model are full of underlying messages about the right thing to do during a shooting.</p>
<p>Run: “Encourage others to leave with you, but don’t let them slow you down,” says a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VcSwejU2D0">training video</a> promoted by the Department of Homeland Security for schools and workplaces.</p>
<p>Hide: In a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQIR1pqd3k8">video</a> published by the Oregon Trail School District, a teacher explains, “We’re gonna push some stuff against the door. That’s called a barricade. We’re gonna barricade the door so nobody can get in.” </p>
<p>Fight: A <a href="https://police.stanford.edu/active-threat.html">training video</a> produced by Stanford University advises, “Fire extinguishers are great as weapons and as a chemical spray. Coffee cups, laptops, books – anything you can do to increase your odds of survival is a good tactic.” </p>
<p>Students and teachers are led to reimagine their learning environment as they rehearse the “run, hide, fight” strategy. To plan escape routes, they must picture classrooms and hallways as potential crime scenes. To prioritize their own survival, they must close the door to the shooter and the injured, putting to rest <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-trolley-dilemma-would-you-kill-one-person-to-save-five-57111">moral questions</a> about leaving others to die. They must do away with the ideal that schools are weapon-free zones and spot classroom objects to wield in battle.</p>
<h2>Social stakes of shooter drills</h2>
<p>Social scientists know that the strategies people use to protect themselves shape their social lives, regardless of whether they work. <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Citizen_protectors.html?id=Qal0jwEACAAJ&hl=en">Carrying a gun</a> for protection, for example, bears on a person’s identity, political views and social ties even if they never use it. Women who take <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1077801203256202?journalCode=vawa">self-defense classes</a> likewise report feeling newly empowered afterwards, even if they have never been threatened.</p>
<p>While the “run, hide, fight” response is modeled on strategies law enforcement teams have used effectively, there is <a href="http://safehavensinternational.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Fight_Flight_or_Lockdown-Dorn-Satterly.pdf">little evidence</a> as to whether or not it will work to minimize harm in school shootings. In the recent <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/02/16/active-shooter-training-florida/343641002/">Parkland, Florida</a> shooting, it seems the shooter designed his attack with the school’s emergency drills in mind. </p>
<p>Whether or not active shooter training works, however, it is likely to shape the way students and teachers think and act at school and beyond. Schools play a large role in the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1170032?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">formation of political views</a>. When kids learn to plan for school shootings the same way they plan for fires, earthquakes and tornadoes – inevitable events beyond their control – how will it affect how they vote, organize or lead in the future? </p>
<p>Will it impact their trust in public schools, police, the government or each other?</p>
<p>Nobody wants to feel powerless in the face of an attacker, and one casualty from a school shooting is too many. Parents, educators and students naturally seek to do everything possible to limit the harm these tragedies cause. Yet, active shooter training strategies have consequences that communities need to consider. Knowledge is power, but maybe books shouldn’t be weapons. I argue that the hidden lessons of active shooter training need to be openly debated before they are unintentionally ingrained in an entire generation of students.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Devon Magliozzi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While emergency drills may help schools feel safer, they contain underlying and often unintended moral messages about the nature of school and life itself.Devon Magliozzi, Ph.D. Candidate in Sociology, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/905172018-01-30T11:34:32Z2018-01-30T11:34:32ZCalifornia’s other drought: A major earthquake is overdue<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203607/original/file-20180126-100908-1qg3z3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fires break out across San Francisco after the April 18, 1906 earthquake.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/p1Jbxu">USGS</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>California earthquakes are a geologic inevitability. The state straddles the North American and Pacific tectonic plates and is crisscrossed by the San Andreas and other active fault systems.</p>
<p>Tragic quakes that occurred in 2017 <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/12/middleeast/iraq-earthquake/index.html">near the Iran-Iraq border</a> and in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/world/americas/mexico-earthquake.html">central Mexico</a>, with magnitudes of 7.3 and 7.1, respectively, are well within the range of earthquake sizes that have a high likelihood of occurring in highly populated parts of California during the next few decades.</p>
<p>The earthquake situation in California is actually more dire than people who aren’t seismologists like myself may realize. Although many Californians can recount experiencing an earthquake, most have never personally experienced a strong one. For major events, with magnitudes of 7 or greater, California is actually in an <a href="http://projects.scpr.org/timelines/historic-california-earthquakes">earthquake drought</a>. Multiple segments of the expansive San Andreas Fault system are now sufficiently stressed to produce large and damaging events. </p>
<p>The good news is that earthquake readiness is part of the state’s culture, and earthquake science is advancing – including much improved simulations of large quake effects and development of an early warning system for the Pacific coast.</p>
<h2>The last big one</h2>
<p>California occupies a central place in the history of seismology. The April 18, 1906 San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) was pivotal to both earthquake hazard awareness and the development of earthquake science – including the fundamental insight that earthquakes arise from faults that abruptly rupture and slip. The San Andreas Fault slipped by as much as 20 feet (six meters) in this earthquake. </p>
<p>Although ground-shaking damage was severe in many places along the nearly 310-mile (500-kilometer) fault rupture, much of San Francisco was actually destroyed by the subsequent fire, due to the large number of ignition points and a breakdown in emergency services. That scenario continues to haunt earthquake response planners. Consider what might happen if a major earthquake were to strike Los Angeles during fire season.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203610/original/file-20180126-100908-wl4bex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203610/original/file-20180126-100908-wl4bex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203610/original/file-20180126-100908-wl4bex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203610/original/file-20180126-100908-wl4bex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203610/original/file-20180126-100908-wl4bex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203610/original/file-20180126-100908-wl4bex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203610/original/file-20180126-100908-wl4bex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203610/original/file-20180126-100908-wl4bex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Collapsed Santa Monica Freeway bridge across La Cienega Boulevard, Los Angeles after the
Northridge earthquake, Jan. 17, 1994.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FEMA_-_1766_-_Photograph_by_Robert_A._Eplett_taken_on_01-17-1994_in_California.jpg">Robert A. Eplett/FEMA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Seismic science</h2>
<p>When a major earthquake occurs anywhere on the planet, <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes">modern global seismographic networks and rapid response protocols</a> now enable scientists, emergency responders and the public to assess it quickly – typically, within tens of minutes or less – including location, magnitude, ground motion and estimated casualties and property losses. And by studying the buildup of stresses along mapped faults, <a href="https://theconversation.com/seismologists-deploy-after-a-quake-to-learn-more-so-we-can-prepare-for-the-next-one-34472">past earthquake history</a>, and other data and modeling, we can forecast likelihoods and magnitudes of earthquakes over long time periods in California and elsewhere. </p>
<p>However, the interplay of stresses and faults in the Earth is dauntingly chaotic. And even with continuing advances in basic research and ever-improving data, laboratory and theoretical studies, there are no known reliable and universal precursory phenomena to suggest that the time, location and size of individual large earthquakes can be predicted. </p>
<p>Major earthquakes thus typically occur with no immediate warning whatsoever, and mitigating risks requires sustained readiness and resource commitments. This can pose serious challenges, since cities and nations may thrive for many decades or longer without experiencing major earthquakes.</p>
<h2>California’s earthquake drought</h2>
<p>The 1906 San Francisco earthquake was the last quake greater than magnitude 7 to occur on the San Andreas Fault system. The inexorable motions of plate tectonics mean that every year, strands of the fault system accumulate stresses that correspond to a seismic slip of millimeters to centimeters. Eventually, these stresses will be released suddenly in earthquakes. </p>
<p>But the central-southern stretch of the San Andreas Fault has not slipped since 1857, and the southernmost segment may not have ruptured since 1680. The highly urbanized <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2017/5013/sir20175013ah.pdf">Hayward Fault</a> in the East Bay region has not generated a major earthquake since 1868. </p>
<p>Reflecting this deficit, the <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf">Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast</a> estimates that there is a 93 percent probability of a 7.0 or larger earthquake occurring in the Golden State region by 2045, with the highest probabilities occurring along the San Andreas Fault system.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203600/original/file-20180126-100893-18czthx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203600/original/file-20180126-100893-18czthx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203600/original/file-20180126-100893-18czthx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203600/original/file-20180126-100893-18czthx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203600/original/file-20180126-100893-18czthx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203600/original/file-20180126-100893-18czthx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203600/original/file-20180126-100893-18czthx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203600/original/file-20180126-100893-18czthx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perspective view of California’s major faults, showing forecast probabilities estimated by the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast. The color bar shows the estimated percent likelihood of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake during the next 30 years, as of 2014. Note that nearly the entire San Andreas Fault system is red on the likelihood scale due to the deficit of large earthquakes during and prior to the past century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UCERF3_fig01-b.jpg">USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Can California do more?</h2>
<p>California’s population has grown more than 20-fold since the 1906 earthquake and currently is close to 40 million. Many residents and all state emergency managers are widely engaged in earthquake readiness and planning. These preparations are among the most advanced in the world. </p>
<p>For the general public, preparations include participating in drills like the <a href="https://www.shakeout.org/california/">Great California Shakeout</a>, held annually since 2008, and preparing for earthquakes and other natural hazards with <a href="https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/EPO/Pages/BePreparedCalifornia.aspx">home and car disaster kits and a family disaster plan</a>. </p>
<p>No California earthquake since the 1933 Long Beach event (6.4) has killed more than 100 people. Quakes in 1971 (San Fernando, 6.7); 1989 (Loma Prieta; 6.9); 1994 (Northridge; 6.7); and 2014 (South Napa; 6.0) each caused more than US$1 billion in property damage, but fatalities in each event were, remarkably, dozens or less. Strong and proactive implementation of seismically informed building codes and other preparations and emergency planning in California saved scores of lives in these medium-sized earthquakes. Any of them could have been disastrous in less-prepared nations. </p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/142904146" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Remington Elementary School in Santa Ana takes part in the 2015 Great California Shakeout.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nonetheless, California’s infrastructure, response planning and general preparedness will doubtlessly be tested when the inevitable and long-delayed “big ones” occur along the San Andreas Fault system. Ultimate damage and casualty levels are hard to project, and hinge on the severity of associated hazards such as landslides and fires.</p>
<p>Several nations and regions now have or are developing earthquake early warning systems, which use early detected ground motion near a quake’s origin to alert more distant populations before strong seismic shaking arrives. This permits rapid responses that can reduce infrastructure damage. Such systems provide warning times of up to tens of seconds in the most favorable circumstances, but the notice will likely be shorter than this for many California earthquakes. </p>
<p>Early warning systems are operational now in Japan, Taiwan, Mexico and Romania. Systems in <a href="http://www.cisn.org/eew/eew.html">California</a> and the <a href="https://pnsn.org/pnsn-data-products/earthquake-early-warning">Pacific Northwest</a> are presently under development with early versions in operation. Earthquake early warning is by no means a panacea for saving lives and property, but it represents a significant step toward improving earthquake safety and awareness along the West Coast. </p>
<p>Managing earthquake risk requires a resilient system of social awareness, education and communications, coupled with effective short- and long-term responses and implemented within an optimally safe built environment. As California prepares for large earthquakes after a hiatus of more than a century, the clock is ticking.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90517/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Aster receives/has received funding from the National Science Foundation, US Geological Survey, Sandia National Laboratories, and Los Alamos National Laboratory.
He currently serve on the Advisory Council of the Southern California Earthquake Center</span></em></p>According to current forecasts, California has a 93 percent chance of an earthquake with magnitude 7 or greater occurring by 2045. Early warning systems, now in development, could limit casualties and damage.Richard Aster, Professor of Geophysics and Department Head, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/842042017-09-19T19:40:20Z2017-09-19T19:40:20ZHurricane Irma nursing home deaths shows stark dilemma of whether to stay put or evacuate<p>The <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/13/health/florida-nursing-home-deaths/index.html">death of Florida nursing home residents</a> whose air-conditioning failed last week during Hurricane Irma highlights the tragic consequences of some of our most vulnerable citizens during a natural disaster.</p>
<p>So, it’s easy to assume evacuating nursing home residents in such situations is the safest option.</p>
<p>But <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1525861017301007">our review shows</a> evacuation can cause more harm than staying put. So we need to take that into account when planning for the next natural or man-made disaster.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/irma-and-harvey-very-different-storms-but-both-affected-by-climate-change-83800">Irma and Harvey: very different storms, but both affected by climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Disasters can be caused by natural hazards (an environmental process or phenomenon, like a cyclone) or man-made ones (technological or industrial conditions, like a nuclear accident).</p>
<p>And disasters are more likely to affect older people because they are <a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/asag/gen/2007/00000031/00000004/art00005">physically frailer and often require supportive care</a>. For instance, when Hurricane Katrina battered the US Gulf Coast in 2005, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/disaster-medicine-and-public-health-preparedness/article/hurricane-katrina-deaths-louisiana-2005/8A4BA6D478C4EB4C3308D7DD48DEB9AB">almost half</a> <a href="http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/25/5/w407.short">of the people</a> who died were <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1525861008002132">over 75</a>.</p>
<p>Disasters from natural hazards, like Australia’s recent <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/qld/qldtc20170325.shtml">Tropical Cyclone Debbie</a> in Queensland, are expected to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2015/">increase in frequency and intensity</a> <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201607">due to climate change</a>.</p>
<h2>What we did and what we found</h2>
<p>We <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1525861017301007">analysed the results</a> of ten studies involving nursing home residents who had been evacuated during natural or man-made disasters.</p>
<p><a href="http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/23250017">Residents who evacuated</a> were more likely to die in the first month than those who remained. Those who evacuated were also more likely to die sooner than expected up to four months after the disaster. </p>
<p>The most common cause of death was pneumonia, which was attributed to <a href="http://www.publichealthjrnl.com/article/S0033-3506(12)00380-0/abstract">poor living conditions</a> once evacuated.</p>
<p>Residents most likely to die after an evacuation were over 80, frail, dependent on others for their care, men, and those with multiple illnesses.</p>
<h2>Why can evacuations kill?</h2>
<p>Standard evacuation procedures might not work so well for nursing home residents for a number of reasons. Residents’ cognitive impairment and lack of mobility could compound the physiological stress of evacuation. This stress, coupled with unintentional changes and errors in how residents are cared for during a disaster, may increase their risk of dying prematurely.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186337/original/file-20170918-26983-16eim2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186337/original/file-20170918-26983-16eim2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186337/original/file-20170918-26983-16eim2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186337/original/file-20170918-26983-16eim2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186337/original/file-20170918-26983-16eim2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186337/original/file-20170918-26983-16eim2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186337/original/file-20170918-26983-16eim2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186337/original/file-20170918-26983-16eim2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mobility problems can mean standard evacuations don’t work so well for some nursing home residents.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/673535773?src=cTOfjGmM_Tcta15D4DXIOw-1-0&size=medium_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Evacuations can lead to direct injuries, like falling over, or indirect problems, like existing heart disease worsening because of the increased mental and physical demands in relocating. </p>
<p>Similarly, the disaster can cause direct injuries, like drowning in a flood, or indirect ones, like a flood preventing essential resources (like food and medications) from reaching residents.</p>
<h2>So, what can we do?</h2>
<p>People with a family member in a nursing home should be made aware of the home’s disaster response plan. This includes plans to respond to likely scenarios specific to its local area, and where residents could be evacuated.</p>
<p>It might be better to evacuate in some disasters (for example, nuclear disasters). But for others, it is better to seek other alternatives, like sheltering in place (for example, cyclones). In reality, the preferred response may not always be available or practicable.</p>
<p>The unpredictability of disasters, lack of appropriate transport, immobility of residents or the availability of a safe place to go poses challenges. Similarly, sheltering in place may not be practical due to a lack of staff, supplies and power generators. </p>
<h2>How do we plan for future disasters?</h2>
<p>This heightens the need to have a well-prepared evacuation plan that includes the preferred response and contingency plans.</p>
<p>When <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2006.107532">planning for future disasters</a> we need to identify residents who are more likely to benefit from being evacuated and those who need to shelter in the nursing home. </p>
<p>We also need to plan for managing a nursing home after an evacuation. While it’s easy to focus on the needs of residents, this is also a time of <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2006.107748">mental and emotional stress for carers</a>, who may be short-staffed due to death, injury or exhaustion, <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.94.8.1436">dealing with their own grief, and caring for residents</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186334/original/file-20170918-1353-utctq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186334/original/file-20170918-1353-utctq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186334/original/file-20170918-1353-utctq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186334/original/file-20170918-1353-utctq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186334/original/file-20170918-1353-utctq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186334/original/file-20170918-1353-utctq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186334/original/file-20170918-1353-utctq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186334/original/file-20170918-1353-utctq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We also need to plan for what happens in nursing homes after some residents have been evacuated, and staff are under pressure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/507437176?src=gn8fqXjZcM9W1QX3VO5yJA-1-5&size=medium_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>Including nursing homes in state or national disaster plans could improve outcomes for residents in disasters. During <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2006.107748">Hurricane Katrina</a> and <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1525861006005846">Rita</a> in the USA, <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.94.8.1436">nursing homes received little support</a> from federal, state and local response agencies during or after the disasters. </p>
<p>We also need to coordinate disaster plans with <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3109/10903127.2011.561401">multiple agencies</a>. This includes nursing homes, which may both evacuate and shelter residents and emergency services, which may help to <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3109/10903127.2011.561401">develop and prepare</a> people to implement those plans. Governments, hospitals, search and rescue agencies and those who provide the necessary supplies and equipment should also be part of a coordinated approach disaster planning.</p>
<p>Plans might include giving priority to vehicles carrying nursing home residents where there’s lots of slow-moving traffic. This would shorten travel times and reduce residents’ stress.</p>
<p>Communicating with <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2006.107748">residents’ carers</a> should be a high priority during evacuations. Specific protocols should also be in place to ensure residents receiving the right type of ongoing care both during and after evacuation. This must include carers being able to access residents’ medical records. </p>
<p>Without proper disaster plans tailored for nursing home residents, older people will continue to die needlessly in disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84204/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Ibrahim receives funding from the Federal Department of Social Services, the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Victorian Managed Insurance Authority and the Department of Forensic Medicine, Monash University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa Willoughby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Evacuating nursing home residents during a disaster can be even more dangerous than staying put.Joseph Ibrahim, Professor, Health Law and Ageing Research Unit, Department of Forensic Medicine, Monash UniversityMelissa Willoughby, Research Assistant, Department of Forensic Medicine, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/834842017-09-05T20:10:10Z2017-09-05T20:10:10ZSeven ways to protect your pets in an emergency<p>If you’ve been following media coverage of the post-hurricane flooding in Texas during the last couple of weeks, you will have seen many images and accounts of people <a href="https://mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1B82A1">evacuating with their pets</a>. </p>
<p>You will no doubt also have seen emergency responders and volunteers <a href="https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/08/29/abandoned-dogs-seen-in-heartbreaking-hurricane-harvey-photo-have-been-rescued/23189706/">rescuing abandoned pets</a> and stranded <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/30/cowboys-rescue-hundreds-drowning-horses-from-harvey-floods.html">horses and livestock</a>. Similar stories play out during all types of natural disasters, whether they’re floods, cyclones, or bushfires.</p>
<p>An estimated <a href="http://animalmedicinesaustralia.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/AMA_Pet-Ownership-in-Australia-2016-Report_sml.pdf">63% of Australian households</a> have at least one pet – one of the highest rates of pet ownership in the world – and including those pets in your emergency plan can be vital. </p>
<p>Last week a New South Wales coronial inquest into the 2015 Hunter Valley floods heard that an elderly resident who drowned <a href="http://www.theherald.com.au/story/4882889/inquest-into-dungog-superstorm-deaths/">refused to leave her home</a> without her dog and bird, prompting parliamentary questions to the NSW minister for emergency services over provisions for <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/DBAssets/InquiryEventTranscript/Transcript/9987/4%20Police%20Emergency%20Services%20-%20UNCORRECTED.pdf">animals in emergencies</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dry-winter-primes-sydney-basin-for-early-start-of-bushfire-season-82641">Dry winter primes Sydney Basin for early start of bushfire season</a>
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<p>I have spent the past three years leading a project on <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/hazard-resilience/237">animal management in emergencies</a>, which considers the challenges for emergency responders, as well as owners of pets, horses, pet livestock, animal-related businesses, and livestock farmers.</p>
<p>Recently we have teamed up with a community-led group in the Blue Mountains, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/BlueARCAnimalReadyCommunity/#">Blue ARC Animal Ready Community</a>, to focus on identifying and helping to solve local challenges and barriers to emergency preparedness and planning for animals.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184620/original/file-20170905-14281-1t6puct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184620/original/file-20170905-14281-1t6puct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184620/original/file-20170905-14281-1t6puct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184620/original/file-20170905-14281-1t6puct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184620/original/file-20170905-14281-1t6puct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184620/original/file-20170905-14281-1t6puct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184620/original/file-20170905-14281-1t6puct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184620/original/file-20170905-14281-1t6puct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Research suggests people often forget to include their chooks in household emergency plans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">REUTERS/Carlo Allegri</span></span>
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<p>So if you have animals, what can you do to protect them? The first thing to do is check <a href="https://www.rspcansw.org.au/learn/owning-a-pet/disaster-management-plan">general resources on emergency plans</a>. Unfortunately there is no Australia-wide emergency response approach, so it’s important to make plans that are suited to your own situation and the help you have available. </p>
<p>Here are my top tips for taking care of your animals in an emergency:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>It sounds obvious, but creating an emergency plan that includes pets is the first step. If you don’t have a household plan, the <a href="http://www.redcross.org.au/prepare.aspx">Australian Red Cross Rediplan</a> is a good place to start. Consider a range of potential emergencies in your planning: heatwaves, prolonged loss of power, floods, cyclones and bushfires. Most importantly, think about <em>every</em> creature in your household: our research suggests that chooks are popular but often not considered when it comes to emergency planning.</p></li>
<li><p>Plan to leave early. Evacuating with animals can take longer, especially when you have multiple types of animals or need to make multiple journeys. Don’t plan to leave animals behind, or plan to leave a household member behind to take care of the animals. Stay aware of weather conditions and emergency warnings.</p></li>
<li><p>Have an emergency kit for your animals: fill a “go bag” (or box) with items you’ll need if you need to leave in a hurry. If you have essentials you can’t afford to leave in a box, make a checklist and know where they are. There are some <a href="https://www.mpi.govt.nz/protection-and-response/animal-welfare/animals-in-emergencies/">excellent checklists</a> available online to get you started. </p></li>
<li><p>Plan <em>where</em> you will take your animals. Emergency services can’t help evacuate your pets or larger animals in emergency situations, and not all evacuation centres will accept them. The official position is that <a href="https://www.emergency.nsw.gov.au/for-the-community/during-an-emergency/pets-and-livestock.html">your animals are your responsibility</a>, so you need to know where you’ll take your animals and how you’ll get them there. Most people rely on taking them to friends or family, but this can sometimes mean that different animals need to go to different places. </p></li>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-the-rise-of-apartment-living-whats-a-nation-of-pet-owners-to-do-58738">With the rise of apartment living, what's a nation of pet owners to do?</a>
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<li><p>Plan for what will happen if you’re not at home, or can’t get back home. No one likes considering this situation, but it is often a reality. Speak to neighbours or nearby friends about what you would like them to do if you’re not home (and offer them your support if they’re away). Make sure you have contact numbers for neighbours and those who might be able to help in these situations.</p></li>
<li><p>If you have horses or other large animals, find a buddy. Horses, and other large pet livestock, are special cases in emergencies: their size means that there are additional challenges in their handling, loading, transportation, and relocation. Many equine groups have <a href="https://www.myhorsedisasterplan.org.au/">guidance for horse owners</a>, and <a href="http://canberraequinehospital.com.au/bushfire-prepardness/">advocate buddy systems</a> to help owners. There are also networking systems, such as <a href="https://www.tepscon.community/aboutNED">Walking Forward Disaster Relief Team</a>, that help horse owners prearrange safer places to relocate their animals ahead of emergencies.</p></li>
<li><p>Hardest of all: practice your plan. Most emergency preparedness advice suggests that you practice your plan, but it’s particularly important with pets. It’s better to find out early that your ideal plan doesn’t work in practice. Finding work-arounds, and making a plan B and C, is far easier without the threat of imminent danger.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Remember, your animals depend on you. Plan for all the human and non-human animals in your household, and stay safe.</p>
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<p><em>September 16 and 17, 2017, is the NSW Rural Fire Service-led <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/news-and-media/get-ready2017">Get Ready</a> weekend, with various bushfire awareness and preparedness activities being planned across the state. To support that event in the Blue Mountains we have co-developed, with Blue ARC and the <a href="http://www.mcrn.org.au/index.php/our-sector/resilience-preparedness-working-group">Resilience and Preparedness Group</a>, posters and flyers encouraging residents to make an emergency plan for all the family, including <a href="https://www.facebook.com/BlueARCAnimalReadyCommunity/photos/a.1462561523770554.1073741828.1204976169529092/1875074792519223/?type=3&theater">links to useful resources</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83484/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mel Taylor receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre </span></em></p>In the wake of natural disasters, pets are be stranded, lost or abandoned. There are simple guidelines that can help keep your whole family safe.Mel Taylor, Senior Lecturer in Organisational Psychology, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/832022017-09-04T23:56:00Z2017-09-04T23:56:00ZIn cities and on ranches, planning is key to protect animals during disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184441/original/file-20170903-6767-j5iid4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Naval Aircrewman (Helicopter) 2nd Class Jansen Schamp rescues two dogs after floodwaters from Hurricane Harvey reached the grounds of a shelter in Vidor, Texas, Aug. 31, 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/Y72PmP">Christopher LIndahl/U.S. Navy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is too early to know how many animals were affected by the severe weather spawned by Hurricane Harvey. But it is likely that millions of pets and livestock animals were impacted by this disaster. Now <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone">Irma</a> is brewing in the Caribbean.</p>
<p>According to the American Veterinary Medical Association’s <a href="https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/Statistics/Pages/US-pet-ownership-calculator.aspx">pet ownership calculator</a>, more than 30 percent of metro Houston’s two million households owned at least one dog or cat before Harvey struck. Houston also has a significant <a href="http://www.houstonpress.com/news/rather-than-fix-the-problem-houston-officials-ship-stray-animals-off-to-other-states-6717198">stray dog and cat problem</a>. Cattle are big business in Texas, so their numbers are more accurate. The 54 impacted counties had about <a href="https://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2012/Full_Report/Volume_1,_Chapter_2_County_Level/Texas/st48_2_001_001.pdf_">1.2 million beef cattle and roughly 5,000 dairy cattle</a>, along with beloved backyard horses, goats, chickens and pigs. </p>
<p>As part of Colorado State University’s <a href="http://veterinaryextension.colostate.edu/index.shtml">Veterinary Extension Team</a>, I help citizens and communities in Colorado protect and care for animals. Pets and livestock pose different challenges, but the key issue is that communities need to plan ahead and create partnerships between disaster professionals, agricultural extension agents, veterinary health experts and animal welfare groups. </p>
<p>The goal is to create animal evacuation teams that are prepared to rescue animals safely, and to have trained volunteers and procedures in place for setting up temporary animal rescue shelters. Deploying well-meaning but untrained volunteers who are not connected with larger rescue operations can hinder response and endanger humans and animals. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Residents of two Colorado counties who participated in the development of their communities’ animal disaster response plan explain why this process is important and how to get started.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Household pets and service animals</h2>
<p>The policy of rescuing pets dates back to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. In New Orleans, emergency response teams were too overwhelmed by the challenge of rescuing people to save their pets as well. It is estimated that <a href="http://www.mdchhs.com/wp-content/uploads/4%20J.%20Animal%20L.%20&%20Ethics%20133%20(2011)%20-%20Mike,%20Mike,%20Lee.pdf">nearly 600,000 animals died or were stranded</a>. Equally troubling, more than half of the people who did not evacuate stayed because they were not able to take their pets. By remaining in place, they put themselves and first responders at greater risk. </p>
<p>In 2006 Congress passed the <a href="https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/Reference/disaster/Pages/PETS-Act-FAQ.aspx">Pets Evacuation and Transportation Standards (PETS) Act</a>, which amended the Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act to ensure that state and local emergency preparedness plans addressed the needs of people with household pets and service animals after major disasters. Over the past decade, implementation of the PETS Act at the local level has shown that when emergency operations planning includes animals, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4494405/">human lives are saved, and most pets can be successfully reunited with their owners post-disaster</a>. </p>
<p>Challenges still arise as disasters play out. When temporary animal shelters close, many pets that were never claimed or whose owners can no longer care for them are left in need of homes. The problem is worsened by post-disaster housing shortages in which fewer landlords are willing to accept families with pets.</p>
<p>Additionally, while the PETS Act specifically focuses on household pets and service animals, this definition does not cover many species that people think of as pets, such as snakes or tropical birds. Shelters may not be able to accommodate farm and exotic animals that their owners view as pets. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184445/original/file-20170903-14145-k6aixj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184445/original/file-20170903-14145-k6aixj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184445/original/file-20170903-14145-k6aixj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184445/original/file-20170903-14145-k6aixj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184445/original/file-20170903-14145-k6aixj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184445/original/file-20170903-14145-k6aixj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184445/original/file-20170903-14145-k6aixj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184445/original/file-20170903-14145-k6aixj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Birds displaced by Hurricane Ike in 2008 at a local shelter on Galveston Island, Texas set up by the Humane Society.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FEMA_-_38420_-_Birds_in_an_animal_shelter_in_Texas.jpg">Jocelyn Augustino/FEMA</a></span>
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<p>Moreover, the law does not explicitly recognize emotional support animals – a relatively recent designation for animals that provide therapeutic benefits to their owners <a href="https://www.animallaw.info/article/faqs-emotional-support-animals#s1">through companionship</a>, rather than performing tasks like service animals. People with support animals may be surprised that their animals are not welcomed in a shelter as a service animal would be. </p>
<p>Community disaster animal planning includes identifying types of animals in the community and trying to find appropriate facilities to provide for them. This could mean designating a vacant warehouse as a household pet shelter and a fairground for horses, goats, chickens, sheep and cattle. Plans should also include providing trained staff and appropriate food supplies for each type of shelter.</p>
<h2>Rescues on the range</h2>
<p>Emergency management prioritizes human safety above saving property, including livestock. But for livestock owners, their animals represent not only a livelihood but a way of life. Farmers and ranchers know how to prepare for unexpected emergencies and disasters because their businesses depend on the land and the weather. And they are prepared to be isolated because they operate in rural areas. </p>
<p>Texas ranchers started <a href="http://www.cattlenetwork.com/news/industry/texas-ranchers-battle-hurricane-harvey-protect-cattle">moving cattle to higher ground</a> while Harvey was brewing in the Gulf of Mexico in case the storm headed their way. Cattle producers stockpiled large supplies of feed and fresh water near their animals, and had generators and gasoline supplies at hand to keep their operations functioning.</p>
<p>Dairy producers have different strategies because cows don’t stop making milk during disasters. Owners need to shelter their animals in place and ensure that milk is picked up and delivered to processing plants. Milk pickup at Texas dairy farms was uninterrupted during the first week of Harvey, although it was not always on schedule because drivers had to find open travel routes and deliver milk to alternative processing plants. </p>
<p>Farmers and ranchers form strong support networks before disasters, and Texas is especially well-organized. The <a href="http://www.tahc.state.tx.us/">Texas Animal Health Commission</a> has a well-trained and organized Animal Response Team that includes representatives of federal and state agencies, <a href="https://agrilifeextension.tamu.edu/">Texas A&M University’s AgriLife Extension Service</a>, industry organizations and other stakeholder groups. The team began meeting before Harvey hit to coordinate emergency operations and response efforts. </p>
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<span class="caption">Displaced cattle in Brazoria County, Texas seek higher ground during Hurricane Harvey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/Y4LCnB">USDA</a></span>
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<p>The <a href="http://www.tscra.org">Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association</a> is also working with state agencies to coordinate relief and support efforts for ranchers. Post-storm tasks include capturing loose animals, evacuating them from hazardous areas, identifying their owners, disposing of carcasses and consulting on animal health and public health concerns.</p>
<p>Once responders have organized fresh feed and clean water and gathered cattle in holding facilities, they will evaluate them for injuries and slowly reintroduce the starving animals to a normal feeding regimen. In the coming weeks, ranchers will carefully monitor their animals’ health, clean debris from flooded pastures and repair miles of damaged fences.</p>
<h2>Make your own plans</h2>
<p>One antidote to the concern and fear that we feel when watching disasters like Harvey unfold or tracking <a href="http://www.weather.gov/akq/Irma">current predictions for Hurricane Irma</a> is developing a plan for your own family and animals in case of an emergency in your area. Information is available from the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/plan-prepare">Federal Emergency Management Agency</a>, <a href="https://www.ready.gov/">other federal agencies</a>, and state and local emergency offices.</p>
<p>In the wake of a <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/201213">2012 drought</a> that resulted in severe forest fires and floods, CSU Extension helped many Colorado counties develop disaster plans for animals. We produced a <a href="https://youtu.be/sOZ-AJPo2YA">documentary</a> that illustrates the process in two Colorado counties, and a <a href="http://extension.colostate.edu/disaster-web-sites/community-animal-disaster-planning-toolkit/">companion toolkit</a> to guide communities through the process.</p>
<p>If you have time, join a community volunteer group and train to be a responder. Your community’s resilience depends on active involvement. As a Larimer County, Colorado animal response team member told me, “The better prepared an animal owner is, the better we can assist them.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ragan Adams is a delegate to the Extension Disaster Education Network, a nonprofit organization of extension personnel involved with disaster response. The toolkit and video discussed in this article were funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.</span></em></p>During Hurricane Katrina in 2005, some people died rather than evacuating without their pets. Now emergency managers are required to include animals in their response plans.Ragan Adams, Coordinator, Veterinary Extension Specialist Group, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/830702017-08-31T00:06:10Z2017-08-31T00:06:10ZPublic libraries can (literally) serve as a shelter from the storm<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183999/original/file-20170830-23702-1ijhcdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Libraries are a good place for kids to hole up during emergencies.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/preschooler-choosing-books-library-549323848">Daria Chichkareva/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. public libraries often transform into shelters during emergencies. </p>
<p>After <a href="http://www.slj.com/2012/11/public-libraries/libraries-respond-to-hurricane-sandy-offering-refuge-wifi-and-services-to-needy-communities/#_">Superstorm Sandy</a>, for example, the Princeton Public Library in New Jersey and Connecticut’s New Canaan Library gave the public somewhere to charge devices, contact loved ones or even just watch movies. Other New Jersey libraries went further: The Roxbury Public Library opened early and closed late. South Orange’s library became its primary evacuation center. </p>
<p>Libraries don’t just pitch in following natural disasters. In August 2014, the <a href="http://lj.libraryjournal.com/2015/06/awards/2015-galelj-library-of-the-year-ferguson-municipal-public-library-mo-courage-in-crisis/">Ferguson Municipal Public Library</a> became a safe space amid the unrest that followed the shooting of <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/08/14/michael-brown-ferguson-missouri-timeline/14051827/">Michael Brown</a>, an unarmed black teen, by a police officer in the St. Louis suburb. After local schools started the school year two weeks behind schedule, leaving students in the lurch, the library even hosted informal classes for hundreds of students.</p>
<p>As millions of people in cities, suburbs and towns are reeling from Hurricane Harvey, nearby public libraries will soon play a critical role in creating a sense of normalcy for all ages – but especially for kids and teens. To help more public libraries emulate these examples with their young patrons, I teamed up with three graduate students to create a youth services toolkit to help librarians pitch in during emergencies. It will soon be available in a digital format at the Library of Michigan’s <a href="http://www.michigan.gov/libraryofmichigan/0,2351,7-160-18668_34169---,00.html">Youth Library Services website</a>.</p>
<h2>Caring for kids</h2>
<p>In some states, libraries are <a href="https://news.nnlm.gov/mar-newsletter/disaster-recovery-for-delaware-exploring-potential-partnerships-among-emergency-planners-first-responders-librarians-and-others/">partnering with first responders</a> and emergency personnel to care for adults during crises. But many public libraries have not focused on the care of children – even though children can experience <a href="http://www.naeyc.org/tyc/article/helping-children-cope-with-disasters">benign neglect</a> in times of crisis. </p>
<p>That’s why <a href="http://www.nctsn.org/trauma-types/natural-disasters/hurricanes#tabset-tab-5">the National Child Traumatic Stress Network</a> recommends that parents openly share information, patiently answer questions and reassure children that they’re safe during and after natural disasters.</p>
<p>Libraries can help parents and caregivers with these tasks: They can provide a safe space, room to play and study, and loads of information. This can be handy when libraries serve as <a href="http://www.colapublib.org/coolingcenters/">cooling</a> or <a href="https://multcolib.org/blog/20161204/need-warm-cold-weather-shelter-info">warming</a> centers when it’s too hot or cold to be outside.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184001/original/file-20170830-23681-1e6k9ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184001/original/file-20170830-23681-1e6k9ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184001/original/file-20170830-23681-1e6k9ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184001/original/file-20170830-23681-1e6k9ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184001/original/file-20170830-23681-1e6k9ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184001/original/file-20170830-23681-1e6k9ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184001/original/file-20170830-23681-1e6k9ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184001/original/file-20170830-23681-1e6k9ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">After windstorms in the summer of 2012 left thousands in Arlington, Virginia without power, the local public library system urged people who needed a cool place to spend the day at its branches.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Summer-Storms/577702250fa3443198eade49c7b731dc/1/0">AP Photo/Cliff Owen</a></span>
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<h2>Mobilization for librarians</h2>
<p>As part of our research for the toolkit, we surveyed youth services librarians across the country to learn about their emergency preparation. Our survey provided a glimpse into youth services disaster planning, including the information these respondents would want to see in a toolkit.</p>
<p>The survey showed that while some of these libraries had experienced disasters in their community before, 25 out of the 37 respondents had no preparatory plans for dealing with disasters, such as adapting their programs or collaborating with community partners.</p>
<p>Through this survey, we also identified three libraries that have dealt with varying degrees of crises in their community, which we used as case studies within the guide. For example, Lauren Hough, a youth services librarian at the <a href="https://www.dallaslibrary2.org/branch/preston.php">Preston Royal Library</a> (a branch of the <a href="https://www.dallaslibrary2.org/">Dallas Public Library</a>), implemented the <a href="http://storytimeunderground.org/">Storytime Underground’s</a> <a href="http://storytimeunderground.org/2016/12/30/storytime-for-social-justice-kit/">Social Justice Storytime Framework</a> to openly address the deadly conflict between <a href="http://nypost.com/2016/07/07/two-cops-shot-during-protests-in-dallas/">protesters and police officers</a> in July 2016. She reports the community response has been astoundingly positive. </p>
<p>Our toolkit includes tips for one of our profession’s most basic duties: building, maintaining and promoting a library’s collection of books and other resources – especially for kids and teens. Amid natural disasters, libraries can display items such as picture books that help kids cope with their emotions, positive or negative. “<a href="http://nobrow.net/shop/tough-guys-have-feelings-too/">Tough Guys Have Feelings Too</a>” by Keith Negley is a great example. It reminds us that male wrestlers and astronauts – like dads – have and express feelings.</p>
<p>Libraries without collections that address disasters and other kinds of crises should consider adding books and other media on preparing for and coping with disasters appropriate for all ages. </p>
<p>Our toolkit also explains that librarians can help during emergencies by adjusting regularly scheduled children’s programs. Storytime themes can change to suit the new situation. For instance, librarians can set aside plans to talk about gardening and instead read books about overcoming fear. One good option: “<a href="http://www.kidscanpress.com/products/franklin-dark">Franklin in the Dark</a>” by Paulette Bourgeois. Its turtle protagonist, who is scared of the dark in his own shell, meets several other animals – each with its own fears. </p>
<p>Unscheduled activities that demand little or no library staff interaction, such as having young children color preprinted pages with crayons or encouraging kids of any age to draw, can also help young people relax.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184004/original/file-20170830-11295-kfpawf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184004/original/file-20170830-11295-kfpawf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184004/original/file-20170830-11295-kfpawf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184004/original/file-20170830-11295-kfpawf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184004/original/file-20170830-11295-kfpawf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184004/original/file-20170830-11295-kfpawf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184004/original/file-20170830-11295-kfpawf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/184004/original/file-20170830-11295-kfpawf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Libraries can help keep kids busy during an emergency without much structure. Sometimes just paper and crayons suffice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/child-drawing-family-359609189?src=snIHLkshe6vheuTYmo0i8w-1-2">Coltty/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Community connections</h2>
<p>Well before disasters strike, libraries can prepare for them by forging partnerships with other pillars of the community, including nonprofits.</p>
<p>For example, celebrations to mark the end of a summer reading program are ideal opportunities to bring firefighters, police officers and other first responders into contact with families. Those interactions can lay the groundwork for smoother collaboration when it matters most.</p>
<p>Libraries can provide entertainment and, more importantly, information about free resources – shelters, food banks and emergency procedures. By creating collaborative relationships before a time of need, libraries can serve their communities better when a crisis comes. </p>
<p>We hope our toolkit will help libraries collaborate with community groups, adapt their programs during emergencies and maintain disaster-related collections – the basic steps required to respond to crises like Hurricane Harvey.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83070/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grace Morris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With a little advance planning and creativity, librarians can help keep kids and teens busy and safe during emergencies.Grace Morris, Imaging/Digitization Specialist, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/831262017-08-29T18:50:55Z2017-08-29T18:50:55ZOlder victims of Hurricane Harvey may need special attention as Texas recovers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183817/original/file-20170829-5484-7hvoox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Brenda Bradley, 72, and her husband Jimmie, 78, survey flooding from Hurricane Harvey in their neighborhood in Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana, August 28, 2017.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Harvey/b10e5ae0ecce417a921169f57512578e/151/0">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>News and social media reports from coastal Texas have shown many striking images of Hurricane Harvey flood victims, but few were as arresting as a photo of older women in a Dickinson nursing home, sitting in waist-high water in their wheelchairs. Although the women <a href="http://www.khou.com/weather/harvey/new-pic-shows-rescued-elderly-residents-safe-warm-dry-1/468698640">were moved to safety</a>, the picture highlighted how vulnerable older adults can be during and after major disasters.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"901805509950541825"}"></div></p>
<p>My work focuses on answering pressing questions about the health of older adults after events such as Hurricane Harvey. While age alone does not make people more vulnerable to disasters, many health issues that are common with aging do, including frailness, memory impairment, limited mobility and chronic illness. Sixty percent of Hurricane Katrina deaths were <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19187485">age 65 and older</a>, and more older adults <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21590581">died after Hurricane Katrina and in the year after</a> than any other age group.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annemergmed.2017.06.042">study</a> published earlier this year, we showed that older adults are affected by disasters well after storms or other threats have passed. But disaster response planning for communities and health care systems focuses on the immediate surge after the event, which varies with every disaster but typically lasts hours to days. </p>
<p>As flood waters in Texas peak and recede, public officials and health care providers should begin to plan now for older adults’ long-term medical needs. Beyond getting the electricity back on and patching up broken limbs, an adequate disaster response must understand and correct the ways in which disasters disrupt survivors’ normal living patterns in the extended period after the storm.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nursing home residents evacuated from Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana during Hurricane Isaac wait to return to their home while receiving shelter at Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base New Orleans, Aug. 30, 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Isaac_in_Louisiana#/media/File:Flickr_-_Official_U.S._Navy_Imagery_-_Nursing_home_residents_wait_to_return_to_their_home..jpg">U.S. Navy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Learning from past disasters</h2>
<p>Understanding the connection between disasters and hospital admissions among older adults, and developing strategies to minimize hospitalizations, are issues of growing importance. Climate change is increasing the number and scale of natural disasters such as floods, hurricanes and wildfires. There were <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra1109877">three times more natural disasters</a> globally between 2000 and 2009 than from 1980 through 1989. And with the U.S. population over age 65 <a href="http://www.prb.org/Publications/Media-Guides/2016/aging-unitedstates-fact-sheet.aspx">expected to double by 2060</a>, helping older people stay safe through disasters will become increasingly important.</p>
<p>Previous disasters have shown that older adults are particularly vulnerable, especially if they need ongoing health care. During Hurricane Sandy in 2012, over <a href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hazard_mitigation/plan_update_2014/3.12_sandy_public_review_draft.pdf">31 nursing homes closed</a>, leaving more than 4,500 residents in need of emergency assistance. After-action reports from <a href="http://www.neflhcc.org/AAR_Hurr_Matthew_Response_NEFLHCC_updated.pdf">Hurricane Matthew in 2016</a> documented multiple instances of critical communication breakdowns for special medical-needs patients. For example, patients who needed specialized care were placed in shelters with inadequate staffing. </p>
<p>Houston officials did not order a mandatory evacuation last week as Hurricane Harvey approached. In any case, many older adults have physical or financial constraints that can make it hard for them to evacuate. However, when they ride out a storm at home or in a shelter, they do not have ready access to health services. This places them at greater risk of immediate injury and longer-term physical decline.</p>
<p>Health care services along the Texas coast have been severely impacted by Harvey, which will only exacerbate the challenge of caring for the elderly. Over 21 Texas hospitals have either closed or <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/28/health/ben-taub-hospital-harvey-evacuation/index.html">evacuated patients</a>. Multiple nursing homes have also been evacuated. Ben Taub Hospital, which had already upgraded its infrastructure to <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/28/health/ben-taub-hospital-harvey-evacuation/index.html">protect against floodwaters</a>, now is <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/08/the-houston-hospital-running-out-of-food/538266/">scrambling to provide food to patients</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Disaster preparedness tips for older residents from the New York City Office of Emergency Management.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Long-lasting effects</h2>
<p>Experiences like this can have lasting impacts on older people. In a recent <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annemergmed.2017.06.042">study</a>, we examined hospitalizations among older adults after a <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/2011-tornado-super-outbreak">2011 tornado outbreak</a> that spawned hundreds of tornadoes throughout Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee, resulting in over 300 deaths and billions of dollars in damage. Using claims data from Medicare and connecting it with geospatial data from the storm area, we compared hospital admissions among older adults in the month after the disaster to admissions during the other 11 months of the year. </p>
<p>Our findings showed that hospital admissions increased over the 30 days after the disaster by 4 percent among older adults who lived in a ZIP code with a tornado touchdown. This translates to hundreds of additional hospital admissions. We then removed the first three days after the disaster from our data analysis, to see whether the increase in admissions might be related to immediate injuries from the storm. But we found that hospitalizations over the rest of the month still remained higher than normal.</p>
<p>Finally, we conducted a similar analysis examining ZIP codes in an area in the same region which was not affected by the storm, in order to rule out the possibility that increased admissions were related to seasonal factors such as extreme temperatures or high pollen counts. Hospital admissions did not increase in the unaffected area, which told us that the higher numbers we found appear to be related to the tornadoes. </p>
<p>Increased hospital admissions after disasters are only part of the story. The aging U.S. population has a rising incidence of chronic diseases requiring consistent health care, such as diabetes, hypertension and obesity. If these health needs had been met in the tornado zone after the disaster, these patients might not have had to be hospitalized, and our study would not have shown the increase in hospital admissions that we detected. </p>
<p>Although we did not have data on individual cases that would have shown why each person was hospitalized, it is likely that personal stress, difficulty accessing health care and an ineffective community response to the disaster all were contributing factors. Our team will continue to study the drivers of post-disaster hospitalizations.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183820/original/file-20170829-5528-1w4ffi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183820/original/file-20170829-5528-1w4ffi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183820/original/file-20170829-5528-1w4ffi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183820/original/file-20170829-5528-1w4ffi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183820/original/file-20170829-5528-1w4ffi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183820/original/file-20170829-5528-1w4ffi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183820/original/file-20170829-5528-1w4ffi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183820/original/file-20170829-5528-1w4ffi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Army Spc. Pam Anderson applies first aid medical attention during flood relief operations just outside of Winona, Minnesota, August 20, 2007.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/9jmZxK">Staff Sgt. Daniel Ewer, U.S. Army</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<h2>Caring for older victims after Harvey</h2>
<p>Disruptions in regular care after a disaster can worsen existing chronic conditions, leading to hospitalizations. These immediate disruptions from the disaster can have much longer-lasting impacts on health. </p>
<p>For example, many older adults are dependent on medical equipment requiring electrical power, from refrigeration for insulin to dialysis machines. Patients with chronic conditions such as diabetes or emphysema may run out of the medications or home oxygen supplies they need to manage these conditions. </p>
<p>In coastal Texas, many <a href="http://www.chron.com/business/medical/article/Sugar-Land-hospital-shuts-down-12066135.php">clinics</a> and <a href="http://www.legacycommunityhealth.org/">community health centers</a> closed as Harvey approached, and road or weather conditions may keep people from getting to care centers after they reopen. The stress of evacuating from home to a shelter can also cause fragile conditions to worsen. </p>
<p>For now, the key priorities are to protect and support older adults and help them return to their normal routines as soon as possible. Past research has shown that some older adults bounce back quickly from disasters, while <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK32854/">others struggle to return to baseline</a>. Planning needs to start now for recovery, which will last for years. It also should include preparing for future disasters, so that we can be more prepared and less reactive when the next superstorm looms.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/disasters-can-harm-older-adults-long-after-storms-have-passed-81429">an article</a> originally published on August 8, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83126/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sue Anne Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Evacuations and disruptions to health care during and after disasters like Hurricane Harvey are serious threats for older adults, who may need support well after relief operations end.Sue Anne Bell, Clinical Associate Professor of Nursing, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/814292017-08-08T17:48:02Z2017-08-08T17:48:02ZDisasters can harm older adults long after storms have passed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181279/original/file-20170807-20706-1sd0n53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. Army Spc. Pam Anderson applies first-aid medical attention to an elderly man during flood relief operations just outside of Winona, Minnesota, August 20, 2007. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/9jmZxK">Staff Sgt. Daniel Ewer, U.S. Army</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>My phone rang around midnight: A major hurricane was predicted to hit a nearby coastal town, which was under a mandatory evacuation order. Many of the staff at a large hospital there had already evacuated, and an unknown number of patients from nursing homes and assisted living centers were being transported to the hospital. The remaining staff were desperate for help from experienced nurses. Was I available to assist immediately? </p>
<p>An hour later I was in a highway patrol car, driving with full lights and sirens for the four-hour ride to the hospital, along with other nurse volunteers. We arrived in a ghost town, but the hospital was bustling. Patients with special medical needs were lying on makeshift pallets. There were no charts, no medications, no orders. Bright fluorescent lights prevented weary and disoriented patients from any hope of resting. </p>
<p>We worked around the clock for three exhausting days to provide basic nursing care – feeding people, giving medications, turning them every two hours and cleaning them up. One older man had severe cerebral palsy but was fully alert. He had been lying in a dirty diaper for hours, on a pallet on the floor in a crowded, loud, bright room. I knelt down to tell him I’d be right back to clean him up, but he told me that others needed help more than he did. </p>
<p>My work focuses on answering pressing questions about the health of older adults after disasters, such as the one I responded to above. Age alone does not make people more vulnerable to disasters, but many health issues that are common with aging do, including frailness, memory impairment, limited mobility and chronic illness. Sixty percent of Hurricane Katrina deaths were <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19187485">age 65 and older</a>, and more older adults <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21590581">died after Hurricane Katrina and in the year after</a> than any other age group.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annemergmed.2017.06.042">newly published study</a>, we show that older adults are affected by disasters well after storms or other threats have passed. Disaster response planning for communities and health care systems focuses on the immediate surge after the event, which varies with every disaster but typically lasts hours to days. Planners need to be aware that for older adults, effects are longer-lasting.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181281/original/file-20170807-28176-11sl62s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nursing home residents evacuated from Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana during Hurricane Isaac wait to return to their home while receiving shelter at Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base New Orleans, August 30, 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Isaac_in_Louisiana#/media/File:Flickr_-_Official_U.S._Navy_Imagery_-_Nursing_home_residents_wait_to_return_to_their_home..jpg">U.S. Navy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Learning from past disasters</h2>
<p>Understanding how disasters are associated with hospital admissions among older adults, and developing strategies to minimize hospitalizations, are issues of growing importance. Climate change is increasing the number and scale of natural disasters such as floods, hurricanes and wildfires. There were <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra1109877">three times more natural disasters</a> globally between 2000 and 2009 than from 1980 through 1989. And with the U.S. population over age 65 <a href="http://www.prb.org/Publications/Media-Guides/2016/aging-unitedstates-fact-sheet.aspx">expected to double by 2060</a>, helping older people stay safe through disasters will become increasingly important.</p>
<p>Recent events have shown that older adults are particularly vulnerable, especially if they need ongoing health care. During Hurricane Sandy in 2012, over <a href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hazard_mitigation/plan_update_2014/3.12_sandy_public_review_draft.pdf">31 nursing homes closed</a>, leaving more than 4,500 residents in need of emergency assistance. After-action reports from <a href="http://www.neflhcc.org/AAR_Hurr_Matthew_Response_NEFLHCC_updated.pdf">Hurricane Matthew in 2016</a> documented multiple instances of critical communication breakdowns for special medical-needs patients. For example, patients who needed specialized care were placed in shelters with inadequate staffing. </p>
<p>Currently there is no centralized system for collecting, reporting and sharing data on these kinds of gaps after a disaster. This means we are unlikely to make systematic changes in how we address care for these individuals before the next event occurs. For now, we are using information and data gathered from indirect sources to try to draw conclusions about the impacts of disasters. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/h2-qgKLTOCU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Disaster preparedness tips for older residents from the New York City Office of Emergency Management.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Long-lasting effects</h2>
<p>I recently conducted a study that examined hospitalizations among older adults after a <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/2011-tornado-super-outbreak">2011 tornado outbreak</a> that spawned hundreds of tornadoes throughout Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee, resulting in over 300 deaths and billions of dollars in damage. Using claims data from Medicare and connecting it with geospatial data from the storm area, we compared hospital admissions among older adults in the month after the disaster to admissions during the other 11 months of the year. </p>
<p>Our findings showed that hospital admissions increased over the 30 days after the disaster by 4 percent among older adults who lived in a ZIP code with a tornado touchdown. This translates to hundreds of additional hospital admissions. We then removed the first three days after the disaster from our data analysis, to see if the increase in admissions might be related to related to immediate injuries from the storm. But we found that hospitalizations over the rest of the month still remained higher than normal.</p>
<p>Finally, we conducted a similar analysis examining ZIP codes in an area in the same region which was not affected by the storm, in order to rule out the possibility that increased admissions were related to seasonal factors such as extreme temperatures or high pollen counts. Hospital admissions did not increase in the unaffected area, which told us that the higher numbers that we found appear to be related to the tornadoes. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181284/original/file-20170807-25556-3bppcq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181284/original/file-20170807-25556-3bppcq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181284/original/file-20170807-25556-3bppcq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181284/original/file-20170807-25556-3bppcq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181284/original/file-20170807-25556-3bppcq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181284/original/file-20170807-25556-3bppcq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181284/original/file-20170807-25556-3bppcq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181284/original/file-20170807-25556-3bppcq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New Orleans residents line up to get into the Superdome, which has been opened as a hurricane shelter in advance of Hurricane Katrina, August 28, 2005. Most residents have evacuated the city; those left behind lack transportation or have special needs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Superdome_shelter.jpg">Marty Bahamonde, FEMA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Increased hospital admissions after disasters are only part of the story. The aging U.S. population has a rising incidence of chronic diseases requiring consistent health care, such as diabetes, hypertension and obesity. If these health needs were being met in the tornado zone after the disaster, these patients may not have had to be hospitalized, and our study would not have shown the increase in hospital admissions that we detected. </p>
<p>Although we did not have data on individual cases that would have shown why each person was hospitalized, it is likely that personal stress, difficulty accessing health care and an ineffective community response to the disaster all were contributing factors. Our team will continue to study the drivers of post-disaster hospitalizations.</p>
<h2>Preparing for the next event</h2>
<p>We can take steps to pivot from our current reactive approach to disaster response to a proactive strategy that helps communities become more resilient. One critical need is for better data that clearly demonstrate how disasters affect the health of vulnerable populations. Continuing to rely on case studies and after-action reviews will hinder future disaster responses. </p>
<p>Federal funding for state and local health departments for disaster preparedness <a href="http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2015/08/27/ten-years-after-hurricane-katrina-progress-and-challenges-remain-for-us-emergency-preparedness/">has steadily declined</a> since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. These programs fund activities that focus on making communities, including their older residents, more resilient to disasters. Without funds to support these activities, older adults will continue to suffer disproportionately.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81429/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sue Anne Bell receives funding from National Clinician Scholars Program</span></em></p>New research shows that older people are especially at risk during and after natural disasters, and may need medical help or other support well after relief operations end.Sue Anne Bell, Clinical Associate Professor of Nursing, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/791512017-08-01T00:17:48Z2017-08-01T00:17:48ZCreating a high-speed internet lane for emergency situations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178515/original/file-20170717-6091-1kdisv4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In an emergency, responders' telecommunications could get delayed by overloaded networks.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.hampton.gov/691/Recruiting">City of Hampton, Virginia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During large disasters, like hurricanes, wildfires and terrorist attacks, people want emergency responders to arrive quickly and help people deal with the crisis. In order to do their best, police, medics, firefighters and those who manage them need lots of information: Who is located where, needing what help? And what equipment and which rescuers are available to intervene? With all of the technology we have, it might seem that gathering and sharing lots of information would be pretty simple. But communicating through a disaster is much more challenging than it appears.</p>
<p>The event itself can make communications worse, damaging networks and phone systems or cutting electricity to an area. And regular people often add to the problem as they <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2013/04/16/cellphone-networks-overwhelmed-blast-aftermath/wq7AX6AvnEemM35XTH152K/story.html">overload mobile networks</a> with calls, texts and other electronic messages checking on loved ones or seeking help.</p>
<p>As researchers about digital networks and emergency communications, we are developing a faster and more reliable way to send and receive large amounts of data through the internet in times of crisis. Working with actual responders and emergency managers, we have created a method for giving urgent information priority over other internet traffic, effectively creating a high-speed lane on the internet for use in emergencies. While a national emergency responder network initiative called <a href="https://www.firstnet.gov/">FirstNet</a> is beginning to get going, it requires <a href="https://www.firstnet.gov/network">building an all-new wireless network</a> just for emergency services to use. By contrast, our system uses existing internet connections, while giving priority to rescue workers’ data.</p>
<h2>Connecting networks</h2>
<p>At the moment, it’s reasonably common for <a href="http://www.govtech.com/em/disaster/NY-Computer-Network-Sandy.html">communication networks to become overloaded</a> when disaster strikes. When lots of people try to make cellphone calls or use mobile data, the <a href="https://boingboing.net/2013/04/17/why-is-it-so-hard-to-make-a-ph.html#more-224850">networks get too busy</a> for calls to connect and messages to go through.</p>
<p>The problem is that standard methods for routing traffic through the internet aren’t always able to handle all those connections at one time. In technical terms, the internet is a <a href="http://www.cidr-report.org/as2.0/">collection of more than 54,000 smaller networks</a>. Some of the networks that make up the internet are quite large, like those belonging to major internet service providers or large corporations, but many of them are fairly small. No matter their size, each of these networks has equipment that lets it route traffic to each of the others. </p>
<p>Computer networks don’t all connect directly to each other. And their digital addresses don’t help much – we humans assume 12 Main Street and 14 Main Street are next door, but computers with similar numeric addresses <a href="https://www.vox.com/a/internet-maps">may not be physical neighbors</a> to each other.</p>
<p>As a result, the router connecting each of these 54,000 networks to the rest of the internet must keep a list of every one of its counterparts, and the most efficient way to reach each of them. This is like needing a list of written directions for every place in the world you might want to go.</p>
<p>This system, governed by the rules set out in the “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Border_Gateway_Protocol">border gateway protocol</a>,” works well most of the time. But when it fails, there can be long delays in communications. In fact, on average, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/ICC.2006.254830">150 seconds</a> (two and a half minutes) can go by before a failure is identified. In that time, the data just wait in an information traffic jam, not moving. Online, <a href="http://www.npr.org/2014/04/01/297686724/on-a-rigged-wall-street-milliseconds-make-all-the-difference">milliseconds matter</a> – hundreds of seconds are effectively an eternity.</p>
<p>When one router detects a network failure, it has to let all the others know what’s happened, and how to reroute their traffic. This is like having just one traffic cop try to coordinate rush hour around a major bottleneck. The process takes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/ICC.2006.254830">at least several minutes</a>, and sometimes several hours. Until then, data in transit can be delayed or lost entirely. In an emergency, that could mean the difference between life and death. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179054/original/file-20170720-15106-rv08qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179054/original/file-20170720-15106-rv08qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179054/original/file-20170720-15106-rv08qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179054/original/file-20170720-15106-rv08qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179054/original/file-20170720-15106-rv08qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179054/original/file-20170720-15106-rv08qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179054/original/file-20170720-15106-rv08qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179054/original/file-20170720-15106-rv08qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When a link fails, the network system must find a new connection between two communicating devices.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rochester Institute of Technology</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Developing the emergency protocol</h2>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A demonstration of the authors’ network routing system.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Working with students from Rochester Institute of Technology’s Golisano College of Computing and Information Sciences, we have created a new traffic control system tailored specifically to emergency response networks. It runs without affecting other protocols on the internet. We call it the <a href="http://www.rit.edu/news/story.php?id=61939">multi-node label routing protocol</a>.</p>
<p>Rather than requiring every router to keep track of the best directions to every other one, we divide possible routes for internet traffic into hierarchies. These mirror <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-incident-management-system">existing emergency response plans</a>: An individual responder sends information to a local commander, who combines several responders’ data and passes the data on to regional managers, who assemble a wider picture they pass on to state or federal response coordinators.</p>
<p>Our routing plan makes direct network connections mirror this real-world emergency response hierarchy. When routers are allowed to connect only with their immediate neighbors in the hierarchy, they can notice when links fail and reroute traffic much more quickly.</p>
<h2>Testing in the real world</h2>
<p>Our system is designed to operate over the same internet as everyone else, and without affecting other traffic. We tested our system on the National Science Foundation’s Global Environment for Network Innovations, a collaborative effort among many universities around the U.S. that allows researchers to develop networking protocols and systems using real computers and networking equipment located across the country. In our case, we connected 27 computers together for our tests, devised by
<a href="http://www.rit.edu/cast/crr/">RIT environmental, health and safety students</a>, many of whom are volunteer emergency responders.</p>
<p>Our test – which we did in front of real emergency commanders and personnel – compared our system to the standard border gateway protocol. When we broke links in the 27-node network, multi-node label routing communications resumed within 12.5 seconds, which is 12 times faster than the regular border gateway protocol’s recovery speed. We can shorten that delay even more by changing settings in our protocol’s configuration.</p>
<p><iframe id="8yjDe" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8yjDe/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Our system can easily be installed across a much wider area than just 27 test machines, specifically because of how it simplifies the paths information takes between routers. This means incident commanders and managers get information more quickly, and are better able to allocate responders and equipment to meet needs as they develop. In this way, our work supports the efforts of those who support us in our hour of need.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79151/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nirmala Shenoy received funding for this work from NSF and US Ignite.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik Golen receives funding from the National Science Foundation US Ignite program <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1450854">https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1450854</a></span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Schneider receives funding from NSF, NIST, DHS; these are all federal agencies that fund grants for my research.</span></em></p>A new data management system can give emergency responders a fast lane on the internet to help speed rescue efforts after a disaster.Nirmala Shenoy, Professor of Information Sciences and Technologies, Rochester Institute of TechnologyErik Golen, Visiting Assistant Professor of Information Sciences and Technologies, Rochester Institute of TechnologyJennifer Schneider, Eugene H. Fram Chair in Applied Critical Thinking; Principal of the Collaboratory for Resiliency & Recovery @ RIT & Professor of Civil Engineering Technology, Environmental Management and Safety, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/695642016-12-04T19:09:11Z2016-12-04T19:09:11ZCan we blame climate change for thunderstorm asthma?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148229/original/image-20161201-17781-10p4m91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Climate change can cause higher pollen counts</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/search/allergy?photo=Hez3-whPnNA">Lukasz Szmigiel/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australians have been left unsettled by the recent thunderstorm asthma event that <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/eight-now-dead-from-thunderstorm-asthma-20161129-gszt5z.html">claimed eight lives in Melbourne</a>. As with previous extreme weather events, we are left to wonder whether it was climate change at work, if it will happen again and if it will be worse next time. </p>
<p>We can’t say for sure if the thunderstorm asthma event was caused directly by climate change. But modelling each extreme event is neither feasible nor necessary. All weather events should now be considered in the context of climate change and general <a href="http://templatelab.com/IPCC-WG2AR5-SPM-FINAL/">climate projections</a> are sufficiently alarming to justify the need for governments to prepare for, and adapt to, new risks these pose to our health.</p>
<h2>How climate change affects Australia</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.6/cms_page_media/168/CCIA_2015_NRM_TR_Executive%20Summary.pdf">Updated projections</a> from the Bureau of Meteorology and the national science body, CSIRO, outline Australia has warmed 0.9°C since 1910 and can be expected to warm a further 0.6°C to 5.1°C by 2090, depending on reductions in greenhouse gases.</p>
<p>Hotter days will be more common and more severe. Rainfall during the cooler seasons will decrease in southern Australia while extreme rain events will become more common, particularly in the tropics. Ocean acidification and sea level rise will continue, wind speeds may decrease and tropical cyclones may become more intense but less frequent.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148376/original/image-20161202-25653-18rfbfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148376/original/image-20161202-25653-18rfbfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148376/original/image-20161202-25653-18rfbfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148376/original/image-20161202-25653-18rfbfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148376/original/image-20161202-25653-18rfbfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148376/original/image-20161202-25653-18rfbfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148376/original/image-20161202-25653-18rfbfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148376/original/image-20161202-25653-18rfbfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extreme rain events will become more common, especially in the tropics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/search/rain-storm?photo=tT_SrSMhhgE">Glenn Carstens-Peters/Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Severe thunderstorms are <a href="http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/vicci/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Dowdy.pdf">projected to be more common</a> in eastern Australia; about 14% more frequent in Brisbane and 30% in Sydney. Unlike heat and rainfall projections, links between climate change and thunderstorms in Australia are less well understood due to uncertainty around the physical processes that underpin them.</p>
<p>Thunderstorms can be dangerous due to accompanying winds, lightning and flash floods, as well as their potential to <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-thunderstorm-asthma-4159">rupture pollen into tiny particles</a> that can be inhaled into the lungs. In general, global warming can trigger asthma, and other illnesses, through increased baseline <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1586/17476348.2013.814367">pollen and ground-level pollutants</a> such as ozone. </p>
<p>Climate change also poses a health risk beyond asthma and thunderstorms that is critical to prepare for.</p>
<h2>How our health will be affected</h2>
<p>Climate change <a href="http://www.bmj.com/cgi/doi/10.1136/bmj.e1359">poses a threat to health</a> directly through extreme weather events, warmer average temperatures and sea level rise. Indirectly it can destabilise the systems that keep our air clean, produce our food, provide us with fresh drinking water and enable economies to thrive. These shifts pose a threat to <a href="http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v296/n6/full/scientificamerican0607-43.html">livelihoods</a>, <a href="http://www.bmj.com/cgi/doi/10.1136/bmj.e1356">food and water security</a>, and <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2960854-6/fulltext">social and political stability</a>.</p>
<p>Heatwaves and reduced rainfall pose the greatest threat to Australians’ health and livelihoods. Indirectly, these changes will increase the severity of bushfires and droughts. These and other extreme events are a significant risk to physical and <a href="http://link.springer.com.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/article/10.1007/s00038-009-0112-0">mental health</a>. </p>
<p>Extreme prolonged heat <a href="http://aph.sagepub.com.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/content/23/2_suppl/27S.full.pdf+html">can trigger acute heat stroke</a> and dehydration or exacerbate underlying illnesses such as heart and kidney disease. Rates of <a href="http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/climchange.pdf">injury, crime and domestic violence also increase</a> in heatwaves. Melbourne’s 2009 heatwave was associated with a <a href="http://aph.sagepub.com.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/content/23/2_suppl/27S.full.pdf+htm;">62% increase in deaths and 46% increase in ambulance emergencies</a>. </p>
<p>The elderly, the young, those with chronic disease and those engaged in physical outdoor work are especially vulnerable.</p>
<p>Infectious diseases pose a different challenge. In warmer climates, the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/doi/10.1890/08-0079.1/full">transmission potential</a> of mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria is increased. As warmer climates expand southwards, malaria, dengue and Ross River virus will occur in new regions of Australia.</p>
<p>Although thunderstorm asthma has been well documented and has <a href="http://theconversation.com/we-couldve-seen-thunderstorm-asthma-coming-and-there-are-ways-to-prepare-69216">previously occurred in Melbourne</a>, the recent storm revealed that public and health services were unprepared. </p>
<p>In explaining the difficulty of adequately responding to the crisis, Victoria’s health minister Jill Hennessy <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/melbourne-thunderstorm-asthma-victim-dies-eight-days-after-70minute-ambulance-wait/news-story/5d72a024ab48fff8a90c12eab7d07318">likened it to 150 bombs going off</a> in different places at once. With current climate change projections, governments need better planning for the likelihood of similar crises.</p>
<h2>Getting prepared</h2>
<p>There are increasing demands from the health sector for a <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/caha/pages/40/attachments/original/1476390215/CAHA_Discussion_Paper_v04.pdf?1476390215">national strategy to address climate change</a> and the related health concerns. Such action would also address Australia’s international obligations to develop and report on national climate change adaptation strategies, and to achieve strong greenhouse gas emissions reductions.</p>
<p>Key elements of <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/pubmed/21108905">health sector adaptation </a> include early warning systems and more adequate preparation of the workforce. Health professionals need to <a href="http://www.jphres.org/index.php/jphres/article/view/673">learn about climate change</a> and related risks to be able to identify vulnerable people, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, participate in emergency responses and contribute to health system stewardship. </p>
<p>Similar adaptation strategies can often be implemented for different climate risks. For example, the risk from heatwaves and thunderstorms could both be reduced by <a href="http://link.springer.com.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/article/10.1007/s00484-007-0132-5">early warning systems</a>, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0277953609006625">vulnerability mapping</a> and public health education. </p>
<p>However, while predicting a thunderstorm may be relatively straightforward, <a href="http://qjmed.oxfordjournals.org.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/content/qjmed/106/3/207.full.pdf">predicting acute asthma epidemics</a> requires a detailed understanding of the process and sensitive monitoring of allergens in the air.</p>
<p>Irrespective of whether climate change contributed to the thunderstorm in Melbourne last week, we can be sure that Australia’s climate projections herald new risks to health that cannot be ignored.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janie Maxwell receives funding from the Department of Health for research in climate change and human health. Janie is a member of the Victorian committee of Doctors for the Environment Australia.</span></em></p>Irrespective of whether climate change contributed to the thunderstorm in Melbourne last week, we can be sure Australia’s climate projections herald new risks to health that cannot be ignored.Janie Maxwell, Associate Lecturer in Climate Change and Health, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/694262016-11-29T01:57:19Z2016-11-29T01:57:19ZIt’s not just about Melbourne: why we need a national approach to ‘thunderstorm asthma’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147686/original/image-20161128-32004-1n1wvj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Why didn't we learn the lessons from earlier thunderstorm asthma events? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/519608404?src=Nv_s5WxZbVCfryXJs0M0zg-1-99&id=519608404&size=medium_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The tragic deaths of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-27/sixth-person-dies-from-thunderstorm-asthma-emergency/8061380">at least six people</a>, apparently from <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-thunderstorm-asthma-4159">thunderstorm asthma</a>, highlights the risk from environmental hazards, even in seemingly safe urban centres in developed nations like Australia.</p>
<p>Events such as these, and others like the <a href="https://croakey.org/the-hazelwood-fire-health-risks-and-public-health-response-options/">Hazelwood mine fire</a>, bushfire and <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2016/205/9/rapid-assessment-impact-hazard-reduction-burning-around-sydney-may-2016">hazard reduction burns</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-28/company-orica-fined-over-chemical-spills-and-safety-breaches/5629974">toxic chemical leaks</a>, infectious disease outbreaks and pandemics should prompt us to ask whether the health protection afforded to Australians is as good as it could be.</p>
<p>At first glance, this thunderstorm asthma seems like a freak event, an unavoidable act of nature caused by a combination of stormy weather breaking down pollen particles into pieces small enough to inhale, triggering an asthma response.</p>
<p>However, this is the not the first such event that has occurred in the world, in Australia or even in Melbourne.</p>
<p>So, how is it that <a href="http://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(07)01381-4/abstract">valuable lessons</a> learned from previous events were not applied in Melbourne? And how could <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292646960_Thunderstorm_related_asthma_in_South-Eastern_Australia_-_Recent_findings_and_asthma_epidemic_forecasting_possibilities">we plan</a> for future thunderstorm asthma events to avoid more people suffering the same fate?</p>
<h2>Learning from past events</h2>
<p>It’s nearly 20 years since Wagga Wagga in New South Wales had a similar severe event. After a series of investigations, we identified who was at risk, how it occurred and how common this was.</p>
<p>We found <a href="http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/16/1/3.long">nearly everyone</a> (96%) who was affected by thunderstorm asthma was allergic to rye grass pollen and had a history of hay fever. Just over one-third of people affected had never had asthma before, and very few (17%) were taking preventer medications for asthma. </p>
<p>Unlike medications taken to relieve the immediate symptoms of an attack (like Ventolin), people take preventer medications (known as inhaled corticosteroids) to control the underlying disease. There are good reasons to believe this class of medications, taken regularly, would protect against attacks induced by exposure to allergens.</p>
<p>We showed <a href="http://thorax.bmj.com/content/56/6/468.long">thunderstorm outflows</a> trigger these episodes during the pollen season by sweeping up pollen grains, rupturing them to release tiny allergenic particles and concentrating these close to the ground. </p>
<p>People who are allergic to pollen and are in the path of the thunderstorm outflow are likely to inhale air heavily loaded with these tiny pollen allergen-containing particles and, consequently, to experience narrowing of the airways and severe symptoms of asthma.</p>
<p>We also found thunderstorm asthma is <a href="http://thorax.bmj.com/content/56/6/468.long">quite common</a>. During late spring and summer, nearly half of all epidemics of asthma in six towns in inland New South Wales were associated with thunderstorm outflows.</p>
<p>As a result of these findings, public health, clinical and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292646960_Thunderstorm_related_asthma_in_South-Eastern_Australia_-_Recent_findings_and_asthma_epidemic_forecasting_possibilities">meteorological</a> authorities in southern New South Wales worked together to reduce the risk of future episodes.</p>
<p>They ran a health promotion campaign to advise “at risk” people – people who “wheeze and sneeze” during spring – to use preventer medications for asthma during spring. The Bureau of Meteorology, working through the health service, also alerted hospitals and other health service providers when a thunderstorm outflow was predicted during spring and summer so they could prepare for the influx of patients.</p>
<p>This is effective health protection. It should have been applied throughout the regions of Australia affected by rye grass pollen and spring-time thunderstorms that are at risk for these events, but it wasn’t. Why?</p>
<h2>We need a national approach</h2>
<p>We don’t have a national health protection agency in Australia. Such agencies exist in many other countries (for example, the US has the <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a> and the UK has <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england">Public Health England</a>).</p>
<p>In Australia, responsibility for health protection lies with the states and territories. Can we afford this degree of disaggregation of responsibility? The recent episode suggests we can’t.</p>
<p>We need a national agency to ensure the lessons learnt in one part of Australia are available throughout the country. As a nation, we’re too small to afford the level of knowledge and expertise required to give high quality health protection in eight separate jurisdictions. </p>
<p>Environmental hazards don’t generally recognise borders. Having agencies whose responsibilities ends at a line on the map makes no sense in dealing with problems like this. </p>
<p>There are other limitations to our health protection regimen in Australia. Effective action to protect health requires integration of expertise in:</p>
<ul>
<li>identifying and measuring hazards (environmental, toxicological and microbiological)</li>
<li>clinical medicine to diagnose and care for sick individuals</li>
<li>health service management (including primary and other ambulatory care, hospitals and ambulance services)</li>
<li>epidemiology, surveillance and monitoring</li>
<li>public health</li>
<li>research capacity.</li>
</ul>
<p>A national health protection agency also needs regulatory powers. Although these all exist in Australia they are not well integrated for health protection.</p>
<p>The lack of national health protection agency means state and territory health departments have to do the best they can, often with very limited resources and expertise. Although no-one can guarantee the disastrous consequences of the Melbourne thunderstorm could have been prevented, a well-resourced national health protection agency would’ve given us a better chance of planning and implementing effective mitigating actions, such as those implemented around Wagga after 1997. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.coaghealthcouncil.gov.au/AHMAC/Introduction">Australian Health Ministers Advisory Council</a> needs to set up, adequately resource, and empower a national health protection agency responsible for preventing or mitigating tragedies such as the Melbourne thunderstorm asthma epidemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69426/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Guy Marks receives funding from NHMRC, ARC, Asthma Foundation of NSW</span></em></p>Melbourne’s recent thunderstorm asthma event caught services by surprise. So, is it time for a national health protection agency to coordinate our public health response?Guy B. Marks, Professor of Respiratory Medicine, South Western Sydney Clinical School, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/667242016-10-17T01:05:57Z2016-10-17T01:05:57ZThousands of people didn’t evacuate before Hurricane Matthew. Why not?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141837/original/image-20161014-30252-1dwb6qj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Post-Matthew flooding in eastern North Carolina</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ncngpao/30220576341/in/photolist-N3umtF-N3ukY2-N3uk2x-MdmaBr-N3ujdZ-Mdm6Vi-N3ufMF-Nb5dLR-Mdmmsf-N3tHwp-MdjHzZ-Nb1ZtV-MdeYZX-Mdg96S-MdeYSn-MdeYUX-Mdg99C-Mdg99h-Mdg97o-MdeYXT-Mdg9au-Mdg9bG-MZKpX3-Mdg92U-Mdg94C-MdeYJr-MZKpWm-Mdg93A-MZKpY5-Mdg92o-N3nYmX-MdeYAk-MdeYEP-MdeYD6-Mdg8Xf-Mdg8Vw-Mdg8Wy-MdeYy6-Mdg8YN-N3nYjH-MdeYpD-MdeYsK-MZKpMU-MdeYnV-MZKpQu-N3nYjc-N3nYhD-N3nYec-MZKpKj-MdeYet">U.S. Army National Guard/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Hurricane Matthew approached the Atlantic coast earlier this month, more than 2.5 million people were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/10/07/hurricane-matthew-rumbles-along-floridas-coast-as-governor-warns-this-is-not-over/?utm_term=.24a27e56d305">told to evacuate</a> in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-carolina-urges-more-evacuations-floods-hurricane-matthew/">Further orders were issued last week</a> in eastern North Carolina, where devastating floods have <a href="http://abc11.com/weather/water-receding-but-flooding-continues;-26-dead-in-nc/1553274/">killed 26 people</a>.</p>
<p>Many residents followed these orders, but others stayed in place. In South Carolina, for example, estimates indicate that about <a href="http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article106358012.html">35 percent</a> of residents under evacuation orders actually left their homes. In highly threatened coastal areas around Charleston and Beaufort the rate was about 50 percent. Florida Governor Rick Scott held multiple briefings urging people to leave storm zones. “Do not surf. Do not go to the beach. This [storm] will kill you,” Scott <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/gov-rick-scott-this-storm-will-kill-you/2296764">warned</a>. </p>
<p>Hurricane Matthew illustrates the challenges of managing disaster evacuations effectively. Multiple factors influence decisions about evacuating, including residents’ genders, how long they have lived in their homes and their feelings of responsibility for friends and family members who decide not to move. Often people who remain are poor and highly vulnerable.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141827/original/image-20161014-30277-zzj7jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141827/original/image-20161014-30277-zzj7jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141827/original/image-20161014-30277-zzj7jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141827/original/image-20161014-30277-zzj7jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141827/original/image-20161014-30277-zzj7jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141827/original/image-20161014-30277-zzj7jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141827/original/image-20161014-30277-zzj7jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Evacuation from Houston, TX ahead of Hurricane Rita in 2005. Traffic flow has been reversed on the left side of the highway so that all lanes lead out of town.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2612379">Ashish/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I study how communities prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters, including <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10995-016-2069-y">hurricanes</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2015.0060">wildfires</a>. As a public health researcher, I focus on potential health impacts and look for ways to use data to make communities and individuals more resilient against future disasters. </p>
<p>By understanding who is likely to obey or ignore evacuation orders, authorities can use data to reduce the number of false alarms and concentrate limited resources on groups who are most likely to choose to shelter in place. There is always a potential trade-off between mitigating risk and false alarms, but improved forecasting and better predisaster planning can <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1070.0764">dramatically reduce</a> potential financial and opportunity costs of evacuating. </p>
<h2>Gauging risk</h2>
<p><a href="https://training.fema.gov/emiweb/downloads/ijems/articles/hurricane%20evacuation%20behavior.pdf">Research</a> shows that several factors strongly influence the decision to evacuate. One of the most important is previous disaster experience. Matthew was the first major hurricane to make landfall on the Atlantic coast of Florida since Wilma in 2005, so it probably was the first such experience for many people who moved there over the following decade. </p>
<p>People’s <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2007.00191.x">expectations</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01341.x">perceptions of risk</a> also strongly influence their willingness to leave storm zones. Authorities issuing evacuation orders count on residents to remember positive experiences with evacuation or negative experiences from not evacuating. </p>
<p>The problem is that many people have short memories – even in highly vulnerable areas. In Charleston, hurricane evacuation experience during Hurricane Hugo in 1988 <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2000.tb02527.x">strongly predicted</a> evacuation decisions four years later during Hurricane Emily. However, when Hurricane Fran made landfall some 170 miles to the north eight years later, many residents had <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08920759809362356">adjusted their risk perceptions</a> and decided not to evacuate. After all, there hadn’t been a bad hurricane in nearly 10 years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141844/original/image-20161014-30277-rbomga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141844/original/image-20161014-30277-rbomga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141844/original/image-20161014-30277-rbomga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141844/original/image-20161014-30277-rbomga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141844/original/image-20161014-30277-rbomga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141844/original/image-20161014-30277-rbomga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141844/original/image-20161014-30277-rbomga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141844/original/image-20161014-30277-rbomga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. coast (click for larger image).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/">National Hurricane Center</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A similar pattern occurred during Hurricane Katrina in 2005. After hundreds of thousands of Louisiana and Mississippi residents evacuated ahead of Hurricane Ivan in 2004, the storm weakened from Category 5 to Category 3 and moved east, making landfall in Baldwin, Alabama and causing minimal damage in Louisiana and Mississippi. As a result, many residents <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3826.0323">questioned</a> the need to evacuate a year later as Katrina approached. </p>
<h2>Protecting the most vulnerable</h2>
<p>Cost is typically a weaker predictor of behavior. Generally, up to 75 percent of evacuees can stay with friends or family. But for those who cannot, the costs of fuel, hotel rooms and lost wages can significantly impact family budgets. One recent study <a href="http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/risk/library/J2011_NHR_Czajkowski.pdf">calculated</a> that evacuating before a Category 3 hurricane would cost a household approximately US$340 to $525. Timing matters too: <a href="http://www.worldcat.org/title/socioeconomic-hurricane-evacuation-impact-analysis-and-a-hurricane-evacuation-impact-assessment-tool-methodology-for-coastal-north-carolina-a-case-study-of-hurricane-bonnie/oclc/42825814">Weekend evacuations can cost less</a>, particularly for those without paid sick leave or vacation time. </p>
<p>While these costs may seem modest compared to the risks of staying in place, households that cannot afford to evacuate are also vulnerable in other ways. They are more likely to be located in flood plains or to live in mobile homes, and to lack reliable family transportation. </p>
<p>This is particularly true in the southeastern United States. Between 2000 and 2012 populations in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast census regions <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/18811/reducing-coastal-risk-on-the-east-and-gulf-coasts">increased nearly twice as fast as the national average</a>. Along with this growth, the proportion of coastal residents who are <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0002716205285515">socially vulnerable</a> – for example, who are elderly, work in low-wage service industry jobs or belong to racial and ethnic minorities – also rose. In eastern North Carolina, a high-poverty region, many residents displaced by post-Matthew flooding <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/14/us/poor-displaced-and-anxious-in-north-carolina-as-floods-climb-after-hurricane.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news">cannot afford</a> to replace damaged goods or repair their homes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141825/original/image-20161014-30240-1mhe6n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141825/original/image-20161014-30240-1mhe6n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141825/original/image-20161014-30240-1mhe6n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141825/original/image-20161014-30240-1mhe6n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141825/original/image-20161014-30240-1mhe6n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141825/original/image-20161014-30240-1mhe6n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141825/original/image-20161014-30240-1mhe6n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Army National Guardsmen help residents evacuate their homes in Fayetteville, North Carolina on Oct. 8.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/thenationalguard/30223021435/in/album-72157674812120265/">U.S. Army National Guard/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it’s not all about money. Residents who have personal transportation and the financial means to evacuate do not always go. Having a strong social support network tends to correlate positively with good health: For example, if you have a larger and stronger social network you have a lower risk of <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/Nchs/data/statnt/statnt06rv.pdf">age-adjusted mortality</a>. But in disasters those social support networks may actually represent responsibilities that prevent people from moving out of harm’s way. </p>
<p>This dynamic was clear in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina. While many residents were criticized for failing to evacuate, they made this decision based on <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2005.084335">shared norms, local culture and traditions, responsibilities to social networks and a collective history</a> that led them to trust their social networks rather than following instructions from authorities.</p>
<p>While the evacuation of New Orleans for Katrina was <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4860776">widely viewed as a debacle</a>, it actually succeeded on many counts. According to the National Academy of Engineering, <a href="https://www.nae.edu/Publications/Bridge/TheAftermathofKatrina/EvacuationPlanningandEngineeringforHurricaneKatrina.aspx">more people were able to leave the city in a shorter time</a> than was even thought possible. </p>
<p>However, many who couldn’t move were triply vulnerable: they had low incomes or lacked transportation, lived in older homes in flood-prone neighborhoods and had little access to or influence on the development or implementation of local disaster plans and policies. We need to do more work to translate bad experiences like this into policies that can protect residents’ health and safety, while also respecting inherent community strengths that sometimes lead to evacuation failures.</p>
<h2>Preparing for the next storm</h2>
<p>It remains to be seen how well evacuations ahead of Hurricane Matthew succeeded. Available information indicates that 35 to 50 percent of people affected by mandatory evacuation orders throughout the storm zone complied. These rates are comparable to prior evacuations. And as in past storms, some coastal residents moved away from storm zones only to be <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/us/hurricane-matthew-southeast-flooding.html">trapped there by inland flooding</a>.</p>
<p>As of October 16, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/us-death-toll-hurricane-matthew-climbs-42/story?id=42807375">44 deaths</a> had been attributed to Hurricane Matthew in the United States. They include residents who drowned after driving onto flooded roads; crush injuries and trauma from trees falling on homes and cars; and inappropriate use of generators. There will be more deaths and injuries as residents return home to clean up and are exposed to fallen power lines, mold and other stresses that exacerbate existing chronic health conditions.</p>
<p>It will take longer to calculate how many deaths and injuries could have been avoided if more people had followed evacuation orders, and to repair storm damage. Rebuilding, and making hard choices about <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/opinion/the-beach-boondoggle.html?_r=0">where not to build again</a>, will challenge residents and policymakers. But it is critical to grapple with these issues so we can do a better job responding to the next storm, which likely won’t be 10 years away.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Horney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Why do some people evacuate ahead of disasters while others stay put? The rising death toll from Hurricane Matthew shows that often the poor and vulnerable are least able to move.Jennifer Horney, Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatictics, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/648242016-09-15T20:15:03Z2016-09-15T20:15:03ZExplainer: how to prepare for a tsunami<p>The recent <a href="http://www.news.com.au/world/pacific/new-zealand-rocked-by-72magnitude-earthquake/news-story/2cdf757a1554a524ba653a5269b1603f">magnitude 7.1 earthquake and subsequent tsunami warning</a> in northern New Zealand reminds us that tsunamis are unpredictable and can strike any time.</p>
<p>If you live in a tsunami risk zone then you’re probably aware of what to do when a tsunami strikes. But if you’re a traveller or a visitor from somewhere not used to such events, how can you prepare yourself?</p>
<p>Since the devastating <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-24/boxing-day-tsunami-how-the-disaster-unfolded/5977568">Sumatra earthquake and tsunami</a> of December 2004, it has been recognised that there is risk of tsunami along all coastlines.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qSWx0aLb0xE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Remembering the Boxing Day tsunami.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A tsunami can strike any coast at any time and we can’t predict exactly when or where they will occur. </p>
<p>Tsunamis are most often caused by <a href="http://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/hazards/tsunami/basics/causes">undersea earthquakes</a> but they can also be caused by submarine landslides or volcanic eruptions.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=1004&Itemid=1004">tsunami</a> can move as fast as a jet plane across the open ocean and can smash into land with waves as high as 20 metres.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Wx9vPv-T51I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How tsunamis work.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The water may wash <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL049210/full">inland for several kilometres</a> in flat lying areas, and can move up streams and rivers, picking up everything in its path. </p>
<p>Waves may continue to strike the shoreline for many hours, and dangerous currents can continue for days following the event.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/w3AdFjklR50?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An aerial view video of giant tsunami waves.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although a tsunami can’t be prevented, its impact can be lessened when communities understand the risks, receive timely warnings and <a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/Tsunami/">know how to respond</a>.</p>
<p>Understanding the level of risk for your area is the first step towards being prepared. If you are travelling, look up the national disaster management centre or emergency response agency for your destination. </p>
<h2>Natural and official warnings</h2>
<p>Warning messages about tsunamis can come from several sources.</p>
<p>Natural warnings include feeling a strong earthquake, seeing a sudden rise or fall in sea level, or hearing a loud and unusual noise from the sea. In many cases this means a tsunami could arrive in minutes and it is important to act quickly and not wait for an official warning.</p>
<p>Official warnings are distributed by local authorities such as police, civil defence or local councils. Warning messages are often circulated through media channels including television, radio and the internet.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5IKIazZc-a8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">You can hear the alarms sounding out.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tourist areas may also have <a href="http://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/en/environmentwaste/naturalhazardsemergencies/civildefence/pages/civil_defence_and_emergency_management_home.aspx">sirens</a> along some beaches.</p>
<p>What is important to note is that each country, and in many cases each local area, will have a different warning system. So when you travel somewhere new, do not assume it will have a system that is similar to what you are used to from other places you have travelled, or at home.</p>
<p>If you receive an official warning, act quickly and follow the instructions to move to higher ground. </p>
<p>There are a number of free and subscriber services for <a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=1437&Itemid=1437">tsunami warnings</a>, but don’t rely on SMS or email warning services. During an earthquake or tsunami these services often become <a href="http://www.rcrwireless.com/20110311/network-infrastructure/mobile-networks-fail-under-strain-of-historic-earthquake-and-tsunami">overwhelmed</a> and messages don’t get through. </p>
<h2>Being prepared</h2>
<p>Before you travel, find out what you can about the <a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=1166&Itemid=1166">tsunami risk</a> in the area you are visiting.</p>
<p>Subscribe to official travel advice from your government, if available. Organise comprehensive travel insurance and check that you are covered for natural disasters such as tsunami. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137529/original/image-20160913-19262-qmkz4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137529/original/image-20160913-19262-qmkz4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137529/original/image-20160913-19262-qmkz4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137529/original/image-20160913-19262-qmkz4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137529/original/image-20160913-19262-qmkz4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137529/original/image-20160913-19262-qmkz4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137529/original/image-20160913-19262-qmkz4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137529/original/image-20160913-19262-qmkz4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Keep a look out for any tsunami warnings signs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/26550243@N05/2528296593/">Flickr/thumbnail16</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On arrival, perhaps as you check into your hotel, ask your host about how tsunami warnings are disseminated and where the <a href="https://www.honolulu.gov/demevacuate/tsunamimaps.html">tsunami evacuation routes</a> are.</p>
<p>Find out where the nearest high ground is (at least 20 metres above sea level) and work out how you get there. If there is no high ground nearby, find out if there are established <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420914000387">vertical evacuation</a> routes. These are usually tall, concrete-reinforced <a href="http://goseasia.about.com/od/bali_indonesia_hotels/a/Bali-Tsunami-Ready-Hotels-And-Resorts_2.htm">buildings with at least four storeys</a>. </p>
<h2>During a tsunami</h2>
<p>Stay out of the water and away from beaches and waterways. Never go to the shore to watch the tsunami. If you can see it, you are too close to escape.</p>
<p>Use TV, radio or internet to get updates on the situation, but try to keep phone lines clear for use by emergency personnel. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RFeTs9mndG0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Follow instructions from local officials to move to higher ground or evacuate into a tall building. Evacuate on foot or by bike and drive only if essential. Roads tend to become <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-11/strong-quake-strikes-off-aceh/3944352">gridlocked</a> during a tsunami emergency, making it more difficult for the emergency response teams to access the area.</p>
<p>Stay away from at-risk areas until the all clear is given. The first tsunami wave may not be the last or the largest, and the waves may be more than an hour apart. </p>
<h2>After a tsunami</h2>
<p>Do not return to the evacuation zones until advised by authorities, even if you can’t see any damage. Be aware that there may be extensive earthquake or flood damage and buildings may not be safe.</p>
<p>Look out for broken power lines and other dangers and stay away from beaches and waterways.</p>
<p>If you are overseas, then as soon as you are able, contact your local embassy, High Commission or consulate in case family and friends are trying to find you. Stay informed through conventional or social media if <a href="http://www.cnet.com/news/twitter-facebook-vital-as-japan-cell-networks-jam/">phone lines are overwhelmed</a>.</p>
<p>We can’t predict or prevent tsunamis, but the good news is that you can improve your chances of staying safe by understanding the risk, being prepared and acting quickly when disaster strikes.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Further reading</em></p>
<p>Australian Geographic’s <a href="http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/science-environment/2011/03/the-10-most-destructive-tsunamis-in-history/">The 10 most destructive tsunamis in history</a></p>
<p><a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/index.php">International Tsunami Information Center</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Cunneen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We can’t predict or prevent tsunamis you can improve your chances of staying safe by understanding the risk, being prepared and acting quickly when disaster strikes.Jane Cunneen, Research Fellow, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/634932016-08-10T22:23:59Z2016-08-10T22:23:59ZWhen disaster-response apps fail<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133540/original/image-20160809-9203-1fjgdgo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The scene in Nice the morning after the July 14 terror attack – during which an emergency-warning app failed to give timely notice.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lieu_de_l%27attentat_du_14_juillet_2016_%C3%A0_Nice_cropped.jpg">Michel Abada</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When a terrorist struck <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/live/truck-plows-into-crowd-in-nice-france/police-find-cache-of-weapons-inside-truck/">Nice, France, on July 14</a>, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/08/france-smartphone-app-alert-terror-attacks-saip">new French government app</a> designed to alert people failed. <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/french-emergency-app-fails_us_5788328ee4b03fc3ee503d39?section">Three hours passed</a> before <a href="http://www.gouvernement.fr/appli-alerte-saip">SAIP, as the app is called</a>, warned people in and around Nice to the danger on the city’s waterfront during Bastille Day festivities.</p>
<p>This aspect of the tragedy highlights an emerging element of disaster preparation and response: the potential for smartphone apps, social media sites and information technology more broadly to assist both emergency responders and the public at large in figuring out what is happening and what to do about it.</p>
<p>A group I am in, with researchers from varied disaster-response backgrounds (including military, urban, wilderness and hospital service), has surveyed what’s already available on the market and found <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X15005099">smartphone apps that can help providers and the public alike</a>. Some help medical professionals deal with ordinary day-to-day work, viewing guidelines and medication databases, performing calculations, remotely monitoring patients’ vital signs and displaying radiology images. Others can help responders deal with chemical, biological, radioactive, nuclear and explosive disasters, which is useful for members of <a href="http://www.publicsafety.ohio.gov/ohtf1/index.htm">FEMA teams like the one I’m on</a>. Apps for the public help them prepare for disasters, notify them of imminent problems, reconnect them with family members, and even help keep track of pets during emergencies.</p>
<p>But as the failure of the French app during the Nice attack illustrates, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/disa.12092">communication is almost always a problem</a> during disasters – no matter what kind of problem it is: weather-related, an attack of some kind or even just a power outage. Effective communication, such as an evacuation alert as a hurricane approaches, can save lives. Unfortunately, as we saw during Hurricane Katrina, disasters can themselves cause <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/disa.12130">damage resulting in communications breakdowns</a>. This problem is best solved by emergency planners using the same strategy individuals figured out for themselves in Nice: create multiple independent systems to ensure connectivity.</p>
<h2>Planning for redundancy</h2>
<p>In disasters, many emergency responders already anticipate communication failure and employ multiple systems. Hospitals, for example, handle most communication with paging systems and in-building intercoms. If those go down, doctors, nurses and other staff can reach each other on their cellular phones. Should those fail, many hospitals keep closets full of radios charged and ready for use.</p>
<p>This principle holds true for social media and smartphone apps, too. The SAIP app’s failure was due in part to its developer’s lack of attention to redundancy, <a href="http://mobile.lemonde.fr/pixels/article/2016/07/21/pourquoi-l-application-alerte-attentat-n-a-pas-fonctionne-le-soir-de-la-tuerie-de-nice_4972750_4408996.html?xtref=https://t.co/MSoNWEUnVa">according to French news reports</a>, as well as an accidentally severed fiber-optic cable and a software error.</p>
<p>Although the SAIP app failed, citizens were able to communicate via social media. Citizens of Nice took to Facebook to use its <a href="https://www.facebook.com/about/safetycheck/">Safety Check</a> feature to post that they were safe, and to make sure friends and family had checked in OK. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.ad70cd1c8bc585e9470046cde334ee4b">This type of organic social media communication</a> also happened after the Boston Marathon bombing: People near the explosions quickly posted Twitter messages identifying the location and specifics of events, as well as their own whereabouts and safety.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133543/original/image-20160809-18030-1bhg2vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The FEMA app’s main screen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.fema.gov/mobile-app">FEMA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most of the newest technologies in communication and disaster response employ this crowdsourcing technique. The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/mobile-app">FEMA app</a> allows users to upload pictures and information about disasters, in addition to sending out information from the National Weather Service and other government agencies. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.ubalert.com/">ubAlert - Disaster Alert Network App</a> works similarly, saying in its promotional material that it can “create the world’s largest, most reliable, all-hazard disaster alerting network by combining data from global institutions and data providers with crowd-sourced user accounts.” Many regional apps operate this way too. For example, the government-run <a href="http://www.publicsafety.ohio.gov/">Safer Ohio App</a> has a “see something send something” function, allowing users to send in information about suspicious activity or even dial 911 directly from the app. Had the SAIP app been similarly equipped, its users could have been more rapidly informed by fellow citizens, despite the delay in the official notification process.</p>
<h2>Storing data in the app, versus online</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133545/original/image-20160809-5131-137bdt7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A screen from the WISER app.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://wiser.nlm.nih.gov/whats_new_iOS_4_6.html">National Library of Medicine</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When we did our analysis of smartphone apps for disasters, we found that many of the apps aimed at use by emergency responders did not use much communication. Rather, they were reference materials, such as guidelines for medical triage or references on infectious agents. For example, the <a href="https://wiser.nlm.nih.gov/">WISER app from the National Library of Medicine</a> is designed to assist first responders to emergencies involving hazardous materials. It offers information about various substances from the National Library of Medicine Hazardous Substances DataBank.</p>
<p>However, new apps are increasingly including communication features. In addition to connecting users to each other, they can ensure reference material is up-to-date. These functions primarily rely on Wi-Fi, cellular data or Bluetooth connections. Smart app developers are including redundancy, like in the <a href="http://www.redcross.org/get-help/prepare-for-emergencies/mobile-apps">American Red Cross apps</a>. Its Flood app, for example, lets users notify others they are safe via social media, text message and e-mail.</p>
<h2>Creating new communications networks</h2>
<p>Beyond building communications redundancy into apps, some companies are building systems that will allow responders and the lay public alike to communicate without cellular data or Wi-Fi. An <a href="http://opengarden.com/firechat/">app called FireChat</a>, for example, can connect nearby phones directly via Wi-Fi or Bluetooth. This allows the users to create their own network. </p>
<p>According to FireChat’s developer, Open Garden, the app can combine multiple devices to create a real network, passing a message from one to the next until it reaches the intended recipient. This type of system can be an excellent substitute in <a href="http://rethink-iot.com/2015/10/23/smart-tahiti-networks-partners-firechat-to-combat-comms-disasters-with-iot/">situations where normal communications capabilities are limited</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/133546/original/image-20160809-11006-1wde03f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A backpack with a goTenna device attached.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dopieslife/23229944776/">dopieslife/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<p>This approach doesn’t just involve smartphone applications. A device called a goTenna can connect to a smartphone via Bluetooth and <a href="http://www.gotenna.com/pages/emergencies">communicate with other goTenna users</a> up to several miles away. This works only between people who have goTenna devices, but is another way people can create what the company calls “people-powered” networks that do not need towers, routers or satellites. The obvious downside is that only people with the devices are able to communicate – having just one during a disaster is not enough, and in fact the company only sells them in pairs.</p>
<p>In addition, there are devices emergency responders use that are also available to the public. Some members of my FEMA team use a <a href="http://www.inreachdelorme.com/">Delorme inReach Communicator</a>, which allows users to send text messages over the <a href="https://www.iridium.com">global Iridium satellite network</a>. It’s expensive, but in major disasters it is a potentially valuable backup link.</p>
<p>When communications break down in a crisis, it’s a problem for emergency responders and regular people alike. With more reliable connections, responders can be better informed about the situations they’ll face, the public can be notified of ways to help and how to avoid further problems. Sadly, disasters will keep occurring. But the future is bright for improved communication when they happen. It’s even possible that someday <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/disa.12092">smartphones may be able to monitor the environment automatically</a> and contribute to disaster alert systems on their own.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63493/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Kman has no financial disclosures but is employed during disasters by FEMA. </span></em></p>The solution to emergency communications: redundancy, redundancy, redundancy.Nicholas Kman, Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.