tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/greenbelt-7084/articlesGreenbelt – The Conversation2023-10-10T11:25:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2122172023-10-10T11:25:59Z2023-10-10T11:25:59ZBuilding on the greenbelt is central to solving the housing crisis – just look at how the edges of cities have changed<p>Amid <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/08/labour-keir-starmer-new-homes-target-green-belt">new targets</a> of 1.5m new <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67058848">homes</a> over five years, the Labour party has pledged to review the planning rules which dictate where housing in England can be built. The shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has said that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/08/labour-keir-starmer-new-homes-target-green-belt">“a common-sense approach”</a> to deciding quite what land is worth protecting and what can sensibly be used to create more housing was crucial. </p>
<p>This may put Labour at odds with many Conservative politicians in the UK, who have long defended the greenbelt, the protected land that encircles the country’s largest cities, including London, Newcastle and Manchester. The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities’s latest long-term plans for housing <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/long-term-plan-for-housing-secretary-of-states-speech">prioritise</a> urban development of brownfield sites (abandoned or underutilised industrial land) over so-called greenbelt “erosion.”</p>
<p>The notion of “concreting over the countryside,” as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rishi-sunak-housing-plan-uk-michael-gove-b2380605.html">has put it</a>, is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/19/is-it-time-to-rethink-the-green-belt">politically loaded</a>. Yet, elements of the Conservative party itself are beginning to see that this oversimplifies the issue. As former housing minister Brandon Lewis <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66998512">has said</a> at a fringe event at the Tory conference, the concept “needs to be reviewed and changed”.</p>
<p>It no longer makes sense to prioritise the city centre over its peripheries because quite what is in the city, and what is outside it, is no longer clear. Multiple factors have seen the city extend into a continuous periphery. These include uneven urbanisation and geo-engineered landscapes, changing working patterns and locations and the perceived conflation of nature with culture. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://counterintuitivetypologies.com/Peripheries-Peripherocene">research looks at</a> how to rethink the urban-nature divide. We have found that design that focuses on <a href="https://punctumbooks.com/titles/analogical-city/">urban peripheries</a> in socially diverse and sustainable ways <a href="https://www.park-books.com/en/product/thinking-design/115">can benefit residents</a>, combat climate change and tackle the housing crisis. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graphic showing suburban town planning." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548777/original/file-20230918-29-9wssmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548777/original/file-20230918-29-9wssmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548777/original/file-20230918-29-9wssmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548777/original/file-20230918-29-9wssmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548777/original/file-20230918-29-9wssmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1065&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548777/original/file-20230918-29-9wssmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1065&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548777/original/file-20230918-29-9wssmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1065&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Anthropocene has blurred the city’s boundaries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joe Wojewoda | Cameron McEwan</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<h2>The politics of ‘urban sprawl’</h2>
<p>In his long-term housing policy, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Michael Gove has made the connection between urban planning, aesthetic standards and climate change. He argues against what he and <a href="https://lirias.kuleuven.be/1684573?limo=0">many before</a> him have termed “urban sprawl”. Instead, making the city centre more dense, he says, will “enhance economic efficiency, free up leisure time and also help with climate change”. </p>
<p>In city planning terms, <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-94-007-0753-5_698#:%7E:text=Definition,a%20defined%20unit%20of%20area.">“density”</a> refers to the degree of human activity and occupation in a defined unit of urban space. It is, of course, an important measure. Our research shows, however, that what matters most is not the numbers of people and businesses in a city, but the quality of the space in which they operate. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Map of England's greenbelts" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551814/original/file-20231003-25-afdgj0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551814/original/file-20231003-25-afdgj0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=677&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551814/original/file-20231003-25-afdgj0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=677&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551814/original/file-20231003-25-afdgj0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=677&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551814/original/file-20231003-25-afdgj0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551814/original/file-20231003-25-afdgj0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551814/original/file-20231003-25-afdgj0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">England’s greenbelts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=26130819">Hellerick|Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Housing is an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/25/the-guardian-view-on-housebuilding-michael-goves-urban-visions-cant-erase-his-partys-record">inherently political issue</a>. <a href="https://england.shelter.org.uk/what_we_do/our_strategy_2022-2025">Shelter</a>, the housing charity, states that 17.5 million people are trapped by the housing emergency. According to the <a href="https://www.centreforcities.org/publication/the-housebuilding-crisis/">Centre for Cities</a> thinktank, Britain has a backlog of 4.3 million homes missing from the national housing stock. This analysis shows that it would take at least 50 years to fill this deficit, if the government’s current target to build 300,000 homes a year in England is met. And it won’t be: homes are being built at approximately half this rate.</p>
<p>However, in 2013, the economist Paul Cheshire <a href="https://theconversation.com/greenbelt-myth-is-the-driving-force-behind-housing-crisis-17802">wrote</a> that what he termed “the greenbelt myth” was, in fact, driving the housing crisis. “Contrary to popular perception,” he said, “less than 10% of England is developed. And of what is developed much less than half is ‘covered by concrete’.” </p>
<p>Instead, Cheshire proposed that there be selective building on what he termed “the least attractive and lowest amenity parts of greenbelts.” Not only are these areas close to cities where people want to live, but building on brownfield land in the greenbelt or repurposing derelict buildings might begin to alleviate the housing crisis, including problems of affordability, for generations to come.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graphic illustration of an interior." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548775/original/file-20230918-17-p7l0vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548775/original/file-20230918-17-p7l0vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548775/original/file-20230918-17-p7l0vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548775/original/file-20230918-17-p7l0vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548775/original/file-20230918-17-p7l0vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548775/original/file-20230918-17-p7l0vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548775/original/file-20230918-17-p7l0vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Building reuse has great potential.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthias Guger|Mihael Vecchiet|Andreas Lechner, Studio Counterintuitive Typologies, TU Graz</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<h2>How urban peripheries can work for people and the environment</h2>
<p>To combat climate change and tackle the housing crisis, cities need to be allowed to expand with coherent planning – that includes good public transport, well-designed public spaces and high-quality housing. </p>
<p>In Italy, the post-war district of <a href="https://www.archdaily.com/867165/ad-classics-gallaratese-quarter-milan-aldo-rossi-carlo-aymonino">Gallaratese</a>, which lies 7km north-west of the centre of Milan, features medium-scale apartment blocks, good social amenities and high-quality, well-connected public transport. People living there have access to small parks and public gardens, places to sit and shop. </p>
<p>This affords the public realm a certain dignity that is often lacking in in Britain. People benefit from better infrastructure for commuting into the city centres – not just traffic lanes for cars, but metro, tram and train connections, with coherently designed outdoor public space. </p>
<p>In Austria, <a href="https://www.aspern-seestadt.at/en/about_us/organisation">Seestadt Aspern</a>, a newly developed extension of Vienna, has been characterised as a “city within a city.” It is compact, yet full of public spaces. The project is conceived with job creation, housing and metro-line extension as priorities. </p>
<p>Our research suggests introducing, to <a href="https://counterintuitivetypologies.com/Studios">periphery design</a>, the kind of buildings more associated with inner-city design. To date, housing in suburban planning in England has largely revolved around the detached single-family home. This ultra-low density building type uses lots of land and is firmly reliant on fossil-fuel heavy private transport. </p>
<p>Focusing instead on what we have called the urban villa might be an alternative. The urban villa aims for a synthesis between the city apartment and the single-family home. Think, a number of apartments in a freestanding house, no more than five storeys, surrounded by a garden. </p>
<p>Suburban planning that centred on this type of housing – which combines urban density with a connection to green space and the public realm – could create a denser, more attractive and, crucially, more sustainable alternative to the way city outskirts are currently planned.</p>
<p>The housing crisis is <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/climate/climate-publications/built-environment/the-green-belt-sustainability-and-england's-housing-crisis.aspx">inextricable</a> from the climate crisis. The environment is <a href="https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/3554/JBA-9s9-00-FULL.pdf">most demonstrably in crisis</a> in urban peripheries. It is where the collapse of a coherent urban order takes place, where big bits of transport infrastructure meet fields and suburbs. It’s often where marginalised communities are pushed. </p>
<p>Ultimately, Cheshire was right. The dual housing and climate crises are exasperated by the failure to resolve the greenbelt argument. </p>
<p>What is built around urban cores is crucial to a truly sustainable and equitable solution – for both people and the environment. But, doing so in a way that is beneficial to both residents and the environment requires a shift in government policy and public imagination. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204614001522">more and more people</a> cluster around cities in search of work, or a better balance between home and work life, those areas that are now peripheral will become central. Quite under what conditions they live and work there is a matter that demands urgent attention.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The way we develop urban peripheries is central to tackling both the housing crisis and the climate emergency.Cameron McEwan, Associate Professor in Architecture, Northumbria University, NewcastleAndreas Lechner, Associate Professor, Graz University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2141782023-09-25T21:14:55Z2023-09-25T21:14:55ZOntario’s Greenbelt is safe for now, but will the scandal alter Doug Ford’s course?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ontarios-greenbelt-is-safe-for-now-but-will-the-scandal-alter-doug-fords-course" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-stag-and-doe-integrity-commissioner-1.6974058">extraordinary reversal</a> on his decision to <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-to-cut-greenbelt-land-to-make-way-for-at-least-50-000-new-homes-1.6139646">open the Greater Toronto Area’s Greenbelt for housing development</a> flows from two colossal political miscalculations. </p>
<p>The first was failing to recognize the <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontarios-greenbelt">Greenbelt, established by the previous Liberal government in 2005</a>, had acquired an iconic status in the minds of residents of the region. </p>
<p>The Greenbelt was based on earlier <a href="https://escarpment.org/planning/niagara-escarpment-plan/">Niagara Escarpment</a> and <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/oak-ridges-moraine-conservation-plan-2017.pdf">Oak Ridges Moraine conservation plans</a>, both adopted by Progressive Conservative governments. It was deeply embedded in municipal plans throughout the region.</p>
<p>Over time, the Greenbelt <a href="https://www.greenbelt.ca/learn">became a symbol</a> in Ontario of efforts to protect prime farmland and key natural heritage sites from the region’s sprawling urban growth. </p>
<p>The government, however, refused to let go of the idea of opening the Greenbelt to development despite a <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/Greenbelt_en.pdf">complete lack of evidence</a> that the land was required to meet the region’s housing needs. </p>
<p>According to the province’s integrity commissioner, it then allowed a “<a href="https://www.oico.on.ca/web/default/files/public/Commissioners%20Reports/Report%20Re%20Minister%20Clark%20-%20August%2030%2C%202023.pdf">madcap process</a>” to unfold around the actual removal of lands, which turned out to offer the potential for billions in profits to well-connected developers.</p>
<h2>Ford’s future now in doubt?</h2>
<p>The second blunder was to try to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-doug-ford-doubling-down-amid-ontarios-greenbelt-scandal-212917">double down</a> on the Greenbelt removal decision in the aftermath of harshly critical reports from both the province’s auditor general and integrity commissioner.</p>
<p>Even after the resignations of the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/steve-clark-resigns-greenbelt-1.6956402">housing minister</a> and his <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-housing-amato-resigns-1.6944225">chief of staff</a> at the height of the scandal, Ford wouldn’t back down. </p>
<p>It took more than a month of a series of damning and embarrassing news reports — leading to the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/kaleed-rasheed-resigns-greenbelt-ford-1.6973107">resignation of yet another cabinet minister</a>, Public and Business Service Delivery Minister Kaleed Rasheed — for Ford to relent.</p>
<p>But the political damage suffered by the government through this period is starting <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/pc-support-is-sliding-as-greenbelt-fallout-continues-poll-suggests/article_7911f9cc-a1ae-5a45-bc57-e4838747e306.html">to seem profound</a> and the fallout is certain to continue:</p>
<ol>
<li> <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/rcmp-probing-ford-government-s-handling-of-the-greenbelt-1.6530698">The RCMP</a> is considering an investigation into the Greenbelt deal-making;</li>
<li> Rasheed has <a href="https://www.thetrillium.ca/news/politics/cabinet-minister-resigns-exits-pc-caucus-after-giving-watchdog-wrong-info-about-vegas-trip-with-developer-7575532">admitted to misleading</a> the integrity commissioner under oath during inquiries into the Greenbelt decision; </li>
<li> The auditor general is planning a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-82-here-and-now-toronto/clip/16002583-auditor-general-bonnie-lysyk-breaks-findings-greenbelt-report">follow-up</a> audit on the whole episode;</li>
<li> Freedom-of-information requests from the media, and leaks from other sources, are likely to lead to further revelations in the weeks and months to come.</li>
</ol>
<p>Although the next provincial election is nearly three years away, the Greenbelt scandal has raised <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/doug-ford-can-t-save-himself-even-by-sparing-the-greenbelt/article_23efd9de-cef6-53b9-a591-bcbaeeca340f.html">serious questions about the viability</a> of Ford’s own future as premier.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-fords-greenbelt-scandal-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-his-years-in-power-211629">Doug Ford's Greenbelt scandal: The beginning of the end of his years in power?</a>
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<h2>Greenbelt is out of the woods</h2>
<p>Ironically, one almost certain outcome of the entire episode is that it’s probably ended any possibility of Ford’s intention to dismantle the Greenbelt.</p>
<p>The political fallout so far almost ensures no politician in Ontario will make similar moves against the Greenbelt for a generation or more. </p>
<p>The Greenbelt scandal has also vividly illustrated how badly the province has mishandled <a href="https://thepointer.com/article/2023-04-24/experts-say-pcs-proposed-bill-97-is-a-sprawl-inducing-full-frontal-assault-on-ontario-agriculture">housing and development issues</a>. </p>
<p>The province’s land-use planning system — including the Greenbelt and growth plans for the Greater Toronto Area — was once the subject of <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/86986/ontario-celebrates-second-major-award-for-growth-plan">international acclaim</a> for how it managed intense growth pressures while protecting farmland, housing affordability and natural heritage areas. </p>
<p>The Greenbelt debacle has demonstrated how that system <a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-at-5-years-selling-out-ontarios-future-to-please-the-well-connected-207194">had degenerated</a> into an instrument wielded by the province to serve the wishes of well-connected developers.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-at-5-years-selling-out-ontarios-future-to-please-the-well-connected-207194">Doug Ford at 5 years: Selling out Ontario's future to please the well-connected</a>
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<h2>Undoing the damage</h2>
<p>A complete <a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-reverses-greenbelt-plans-construction-would-never-have-provided-affordable-housing-214138">overhaul of the land-use planning system</a> is now needed to undo the damage done by the Ford government, restore the system’s credibility and address the province’s housing needs effectively. <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-ontarios-housing-plan-been-built-on-a-foundation-of-evidentiary-sand-198133">Evidence backed by expert research</a>, reason and basic democratic principles of transparency and accountability all need to be returned to the system. </p>
<p>Although the Greenbelt appears to be safe for the time being, attention now needs to turn to the government’s handling of the redevelopment of existing urban areas, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eft5FOlUZmg">a theme Ford highlighted</a> in his speech reversing the Greenbelt removals. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Eft5FOlUZmg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Doug Ford announces his Greenbelt reversal at a news conference. (CTV News)</span></figcaption>
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<p>So far the government’s approach to “<a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/transit-oriented-communities">transit-oriented communities</a>” — ideally communities developed within a short distance of transit lines — has been to declare these areas free-for-all zones where the development industry can do as it wishes. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/giving-developers-free-rein-isnt-the-solution-to-the-gtha-housing-challenges-176128">Predictably</a>, the results of that approach in <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-developers-propose-taller-towers-for-torontos-midtown/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links">midtown and downtown Toronto</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-ministerial-zoning-orders-1.6421555">Richmond Hill, Markham</a> <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/mississauga-lakeview-village-mzo-1.6844018">and Mississauga</a> have been an overwhelming focus on high-rise condominium developments, a lack of infrastructure and services of all forms, no mixing of uses (for example, significant new employment locations) or housing types, no attention paid to affordability and significant losses of existing affordable rental housing to “redevelopment.”</p>
<p>This is the polar opposite of the “complete communities” and urban development centres envisioned in the <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/growth-plan-greater-golden-horseshoe-2006">2006 growth plan to guide urban redevelopment</a> that accompanied the announcement of the Greenbelt.</p>
<h2>Challenges ahead</h2>
<p>The province has trampled on efforts by municipalities and communities to support more development along transit lines. The Ford government has apparently been intent on dismantling the <a href="https://ero.ontario.ca/notice/019-6813">growth plan</a> as well as the Greenbelt.</p>
<p>The challenges facing the Greater Toronto Area are multi-dimensional and complex, including:</p>
<p>— <a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/social-innovation/Programs/Affordable_Housing_Visual_Systems_Map_Oxford.pdf">Housing needs</a>, particularly at the lower end of the income scale;</p>
<p>— Structural economic transitions and <a href="https://ppforum.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/JobPolarizationInCanada-PPF-April2021-EN.pdf">increasingly polarized</a> labour markets;</p>
<p>— <a href="https://trca.ca/climate-change-impacts-gta/">The impacts</a> of a changing climate;</p>
<p>— A <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/news/city-of-toronto-staff-report-says-toronto-faces-an-unprecedented-financial-crisis-and-the-time-is-now-for-all-orders-of-government-to-step-up-to-fulfil-their-roles/">fiscal crisis</a>, particularly for the city of Toronto, driven in large part by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-mayors-slam-ford-download-1.5117718">provincial downloading</a>.</p>
<p>The Greenbelt fiasco has been an enormous distraction from these challenges — and it remains doubtful that the Ford government can significantly change its approach to governance to address them effectively.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He was involved in the development of the original Greenbelt and Growth Plans, including serving on the Ministerial Advisory Committee on the implementation of the Places to Grow plan. </span></em></p>The Greenbelt fiasco has been an enormous distraction from the challenges facing the Greater Toronto Area — and it’s doubtful the Ford government will significantly change its approach.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2141852023-09-22T21:44:50Z2023-09-22T21:44:50ZOntario’s Greenbelt: A step in the right direction, but is it enough to protect biodiversity?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ontarios-greenbelt-a-step-in-the-right-direction-but-is-it-enough-to-protect-biodiversity" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Doug Ford has announced that he’s reversing his controversial plan to remove lands from Ontario’s Greenbelt, following a massive public outcry and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/kaleed-rasheed-resigns-greenbelt-ford-1.6973107">the resignation of two of his ministers</a>.</p>
<p>The reasons Ford cited included his government’s lack of due process and the fact that his original plan left “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-stag-and-doe-integrity-commissioner-1.6974058">too much room for some people to benefit over others</a>.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-reverses-greenbelt-plans-construction-would-never-have-provided-affordable-housing-214138">Doug Ford reverses Greenbelt plans: Construction would never have provided affordable housing</a>
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<p>Nowhere in his address did he mention the reason the Greenbelt was established in the first place — to protect some of the <a href="https://www.greenbelt.ca/learn">most biologically rich ecosystems in Canada</a> from being destroyed by urban expansion — or how his plans had been at odds with this aim from the start. </p>
<p>Although Ford has now restored his broken promise not to touch the Greenbelt, he remains adamant that developing the Greenbelt would be good for Ontarians. This hypocrisy underscores that what is required now, more than ever, is more protection for our planet, and not less.</p>
<h2>Not-so-careful consideration</h2>
<p>The lands protected by the Greenbelt were not chosen at random. They were <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/as-a-creator-of-the-greenbelt-i-can-assure-you-it-is-no-scam/article_908968a7-3f73-572e-a70f-c23ec850f93c.html">carefully selected after a long consultation process</a> that included academics, conservation authorities and local citizens. </p>
<p>Experts from a long list of fields like hydrology, ecology, climatology and more contributed their knowledge to this process. As a result, the Greenbelt is made up of ecologically significant areas like wetlands, forests and important wildlife corridors.</p>
<p>Protecting these types of environments is not simply about protecting nature for nature’s sake. The range of ecosystems protected by the Greenbelt <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-biodiversity-why-the-proposed-changes-to-ontarios-greenbelt-matter-211719">provide a host of services that we heavily rely on</a>. Things like erosion protection, flood protection and climate regulation to name a few.</p>
<p>Ford’s plan to simply swap lands in and out of the Greenbelt was made without this same type of careful consideration. In fact, some of the lands that were slated to lose their protections <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ontario-greenbelt-farmland-wetlands-floodplains/">contain important ecosystems like wetlands and floodplains</a>, and are home to a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9806793/ontario-ford-government-greenbelt-changes-at-risk-species/">number of species at risk</a>.</p>
<p>At least three of the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ontario-greenbelt-farmland-wetlands-floodplains/">parcels of land that were proposed for removal contain wetlands designated as “provincially significant”</a>, meaning that these are some of the <a href="https://www.kawarthaconservation.com/en/resources/significant-wetlands.pdf">highest functioning and most valuable wetlands in the province</a>. Wetlands soak up water, carbon and other pollutants, protecting against floods and providing both clean air and water.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/losing-the-natural-world-comes-with-major-risks-for-your-super-fund-and-bank-198669">Losing the natural world comes with major risks for your super fund and bank</a>
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<p>Several other parcels that were to be removed are <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9806793/ontario-ford-government-greenbelt-changes-at-risk-species/">home to species at risk</a>, such as <a href="https://www.natureconservancy.ca/en/what-we-do/resource-centre/featured-species/birds/barn-owl.html">barn owls</a> who help to keep the province’s mouse population under control, Blanding’s turtles which live in only <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/blanding-s-turtle">limited regions in the northeast</a>, and songbirds like the <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/eastern-meadowlark">eastern meadowlark</a>.</p>
<p>Many of the parcels are <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ontario-greenbelt-farmland-wetlands-floodplains/">part of what are called “natural heritage systems”</a>. These are systems of <a href="https://ontarionature.org/campaigns/natural-heritage-systems-planning/">interconnected natural lands</a> designed to promote biodiversity by facilitating the movement of species between different regions.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Footage of the press conference where Premier Doug Ford announced a reversal of the province’s Greenbelt plans.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Simply put, a compelling argument can be made that the benefits of these lands in terms of their ecological services far outweighs the benefits they may provide as residential land — especially considering Ontario has plenty of room for housing elsewhere.</p>
<p>From an ecological standpoint, Ford’s decision to leave these protections in place is a good one, aligned with the expert advice used to form the Greenbelt in the first place. Although it is disappointing, to say the least, that this did not seem to factor into his decision whatsoever.</p>
<h2>Critical state of biodiversity</h2>
<p>This decision comes just days after world-renowned scientists published an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458">evaluation on the state of the Earth’s natural systems</a> — the systems that provide us with the essential life-supporting services that have allowed humankind to evolve and thrive.</p>
<p>Biodiversity <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-biodiversity-why-the-proposed-changes-to-ontarios-greenbelt-matter-211719">underpins every biological process in nature</a>, creating resilience and ensuring the continued functioning of these natural systems. Protecting ecologically rich areas like the Greenbelt bolsters biodiversity and in turn, the Earth’s life support systems.</p>
<p>However, this latest assessment paints a dire picture of the current state of global biodiversity. </p>
<p>While natural systems can handle a certain level of human interference, beyond a certain point, they lose their ability to bounce back. It appears biodiversity has now been eroded to the point where there is a high risk that it will not be able to continue to support the life-sustaining ecosystems we rely on. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-planetary-boundaries-and-why-should-we-care-213762">What are ‘planetary boundaries’ and why should we care?</a>
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<p>Ford’s decision to leave the Greenbelt intact is a big win for biodiversity in Ontario and is certainly a step in the right direction, even if done for the wrong reasons.</p>
<p>However, it’s becoming increasingly clear that this is not enough. We need to step up environmental protections across Canada and the world to ensure that future generations can continue to rely upon all that biodiversity provides. </p>
<p>In short — we desperately need more Greenbelts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Loog receives funding from CIRAIG, the International Reference Center for Life Cycle Assessment and Sustainable Transition and its industrial partners.</span></em></p>In reversing his decision on the Greenbelt, Doug Ford made no mention of ecology or biodiversity, the very things the Greenbelt was created to protect.Kathryn Loog, PhD Candidate, Industrial Engineering, Polytechnique MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2129172023-09-11T18:53:01Z2023-09-11T18:53:01ZWhy is Doug Ford doubling down amid Ontario’s Greenbelt scandal?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-is-doug-ford-doubling-down-amid-ontarios-greenbelt-scandal" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The past few weeks have witnessed an extraordinary series of events in Ontario politics. Reports tabled by the province’s <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/Greenbelt_en.pdf">auditor general</a> and its <a href="https://www.oico.on.ca/web/default/files/public/Commissioners%20Reports/Report%20Re%20Minister%20Clark%20-%20August%2030%2C%202023.pdf">integrity commissioner</a> on the government’s November 2022 decision to remove 7,400 acres of land from the Greater Toronto Area’s Greenbelt have set off a political firestorm.</p>
<p>The controversy has resulted in the resignation of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/steve-clark-resigns-greenbelt-1.6956402">Housing Minister Steve Clark</a> and his <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/ontario-housing-ministers-chief-of-staff-resigns-days-after-auditor-general-report-on-greenbelt">chief of staff</a> and angry protesters greeting <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/ford-fest-kitchener-waterloo-region-1.6960609">Premier Doug Ford in Kitchener, Ont., when he arrived for the annual Ford Fest under heavy police escort.</a></p>
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<p>The auditor general found that normal decision-making processes related to the Greenbelt had been bypassed, that it was well-established there was no need to remove land from the Greenbelt for housing purposes and that decisions were “biased” in favour of certain developers who had bought the lands in question and who stood to reap a $8.3 billion windfall from their development. </p>
<p>The integrity commissioner, for his part, described the decision-making process around the Greenbelt removals as “madcap.”</p>
<h2>Doubling down</h2>
<p>Ford’s government has so far stonewalled on the auditor general’s key recommendation that the removal of the lands from the Greenbelt be “reconsidered.”</p>
<p>In fact, the government seems to be moving in the opposite direction. <a href="https://www.newmarkettoday.ca/local-news/youre-on-notice-ford-warns-land-will-return-to-greenbelt-if-conditions-not-met-7469519">It is pressuring</a> developers to accelerate construction on the removed lands. </p>
<p>New Housing Minister Paul Calandra is now advancing a wholesale review of the Greenbelt plan. <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/more-land-removed-greenbelt-review-minister-says">That seems to include consideration</a> of the possibility of further land removals, if not a complete reconsideration of the Greenbelt as a whole.</p>
<p>The government’s response to the situation defies normal political logic. Following the departure of the minister and his chief of staff, a government might have been expected to use the announcement of the Greenbelt review as political cover to back down on the land removals, take further moves on the Greenbelt off the table and then move on from the entire episode.</p>
<p>The Ford government’s emerging <a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/2007266/ford-doubles-down-on-housing-plan-amid-calls-to-fire-minister-over-greenbelt-swap">double-down</a> approach, by contrast, seems fraught with political and legal risks. </p>
<p>Furthermore, reports expected to be just as damaging are on the horizon. The integrity commissioner will issue a follow-up report at some point over the next year, and so will the auditor general.</p>
<h2>Major challenges loom</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-opp-refers-greenbelt-investigation-to-rcmp/">The RCMP</a> is considering requests to look into whether there’s been any criminal behaviour in relation to the Greenbelt controversy. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/greenbelt-stop-ford-ontario-1.6933082">Other potential challenges</a> to the legality and procedural correctness of Greenbelt removals loom. Municipal councils may decline to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/duffins-rouge-agricultural-preserve-1.6937144">provide or approve the infrastructure</a> needed to support housing development on the Greenbelt since the lands in question were never expected to be developed, and no plans exist for such infrastructure. </p>
<p>There may even be legal action by <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/08/29/news/first-nations-chiefs-demand-return-all-removed-greenbelt-land">Indigenous Peoples</a> whose treaty rights and interests may have been infringed upon by the Greenbelt decisions.</p>
<p>The situation begs an explanation of the government’s behaviour in response to the episode. Some have suggested simple stubbornness and a refusal to accept blame, although Ford himself <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2261250627978">has described the process as flawed</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-fords-greenbelt-scandal-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-his-years-in-power-211629">Doug Ford's Greenbelt scandal: The beginning of the end of his years in power?</a>
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<h2>The role of Ford Nation</h2>
<p>There’s a second possibility.</p>
<p>Ontario voters, especially <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2022/doug-ford-political-durability/">those who are likely to vote for the Ford government</a> (also known as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-17/the-rise-of-urban-populism-in-rob-ford-s-toronto">Ford Nation</a>), may simply care more about immediate affordability issues than more abstract notions about evidence-based policymaking, good planning, legal correctness and political accountability. </p>
<p>These are all issues being raised by Ontario’s <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9885243/ontario-opposition-parties-greenbelt-report-response/">opposition parties</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/doug-ford-s-housing-minister-must-resign-but-hey-don-t-just-take-it-from/article_742bf67e-9804-5df2-88c9-7478fc0c2f2c.html">mainstream</a> media, but it’s unclear whether they resonate with Ford’s loyal base. </p>
<p>Public opinion polling on the impact of the Greenbelt episode is still relatively preliminary. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/has-the-greenbelt-scandal-hurt-the-ford-pcs-in-ontario/">There is evidence</a> of relatively high levels of awareness of the Greenbelt scandal, but its political consequences, particularly nearly three years away from the next provincial election, aren’t clear. </p>
<p>The longer-term response may give some indication of whether the government has accurately assessed deeper shifts in Ontario’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontario-election-4-ways-doug-ford-has-changed-the-provinces-politics-182660">political culture</a>, which has traditionally emphasized administrative competence, integrity and moderation.</p>
<h2>No vision</h2>
<p>Beyond its political impact, the Greenbelt episode, and the government’s broader approach to planning and development matters, have left the province’s planning process in discredited shambles. </p>
<p>Once the subject of <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/86986/ontario-celebrates-second-major-award-for-growth-plan">international acclaim</a>, the Greenbelt debacle has made it starkly apparent that the <a href="https://thepointer.com/article/2023-04-24/experts-say-pcs-proposed-bill-97-is-a-sprawl-inducing-full-frontal-assault-on-ontario-agriculture">government’s reforms</a> over the past five years have converted the process into an instrument wielded by the province on behalf of the interests of developers.</p>
<p>The government seems to have <a href="https://theconversation.com/giving-developers-free-rein-isnt-the-solution-to-the-gtha-housing-challenges-176128">no underlying vision</a> for the Greater Toronto Area other than to give the development industry everything it wants and hope that solves the housing crisis. </p>
<p>The industry itself has no vision for the region other than an overriding focus on short-term profit maximization.</p>
<p>Challenges facing the GTA are multidimensional and complex: <a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/social-innovation/Programs/Affordable_Housing_Visual_Systems_Map_Oxford.pdf">housing needs</a>, particularly at the lower end of the income scale; structural economic transitions and <a href="https://ppforum.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/JobPolarizationInCanada-PPF-April2021-EN.pdf">increasingly polarized</a> labour markets; <a href="https://trca.ca/climate-change-impacts-gta/">the impacts</a> of a changing climate; and a growing <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/news/city-of-toronto-staff-report-says-toronto-faces-an-unprecedented-financial-crisis-and-the-time-is-now-for-all-orders-of-government-to-step-up-to-fulfil-their-roles/">fiscal crisis</a>, particularly for the City of Toronto, driven in large part by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-mayors-slam-ford-download-1.5117718">provincial downloading.</a> </p>
<p>Responding to these challenges will require planning and decision-making processes grounded in democratic norms, evidence, transparency and accountability — the <a href="https://marksw.blog.yorku.ca/2023/06/13/doug-ford-at-5-years-selling-out-ontarios-future-to-please-the-well-connected/">very opposite</a> of the Ford government’s modus operandi.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He was involved in the development of the original Growth and Greenbelt Plans for the Greater Toronto Region. </span></em></p>The Greenbelt scandal is among the most serious of Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s years in office. So why is he pressuring developers to accelerate construction on Greenbelt lands?Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2117192023-08-30T22:16:16Z2023-08-30T22:16:16ZGlobal biodiversity: Why the proposed changes to Ontario’s Greenbelt matter<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/global-biodiversity-why-the-proposed-changes-to-ontarios-greenbelt-matter" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government continues to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-fords-greenbelt-scandal-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-his-years-in-power-211629">tied up in a massive scandal</a> over <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/ontario-greenbelt-plan-ford-housing/">its plans to remove lands from Ontario’s Greenbelt</a> — including the integrity commissioner’s <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-housing-minister-steve-clark-broke-ethics-rules-in-greenbelt-development-1.6541247">finding that the housing minister broke ethics rules</a>.</p>
<p>Indeed, as world leaders gathered in Vancouver on Aug. 24 to launch a <a href="https://www.thegef.org/newsroom/press-releases/new-global-biodiversity-fund-launched-vancouver">“game-changing” global fund to fight biodiversity loss</a>, Ford was already leading Canada’s most populous province in a very different direction.</p>
<p>Political controversy aside, what has become abundantly clear is that Ford’s Greenbelt plans fly in the face of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/countries-launch-fund-protect-nature-un-calls-more-money-2023-08-24/">Canada’s freshly funded commitment to halt biodiversity loss</a>.</p>
<p>Stretching over two million acres, the <a href="https://www.greenbelt.ca/learn">Greenbelt is the largest protected area of its kind in the world</a>. It includes some of Ontario’s best farmland as well as over seven hundred thousand acres of wetlands, grasslands and forests.</p>
<p>With the climate change crisis fuelling devastating <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-wildfires-an-area-larger-than-the-netherlands-has-been-burned-so-far-this-year-heres-what-is-causing-them-207577">wildfires</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-science-of-drought-is-complex-but-the-message-on-climate-change-is-clear-125941">droughts</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/european-heatwave-whats-causing-it-and-is-climate-change-to-blame-209653">heat waves</a>, it can be easy to forget that we <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/06/the-biodiversity-crisis-in-numbers-a-visual-guide-aoe">are also living through a global biodiversity crisis</a>.</p>
<p>So, what exactly is it that we gain from biodiversity — and what does protecting lands like the Greenbelt have to do with it?</p>
<h2>Nature’s interconnected benefits</h2>
<p><a href="https://biodiversity.europa.eu/europes-biodiversity/ecosystems">Ecosystem services are the benefits we get from the natural environment</a>. It is a long list that includes everything from the foods we eat and the clean air we breathe to the simple joy of walking through the woods.</p>
<p>These services are usually divided into three main groups: provisioning, regulating and cultural services. </p>
<p>Provisioning services give us the physical things we need, like the plants and animals we eat, clean water to drink and plant life that provide things like oxygen, lumber and paper. Nature provides these vital resources. Even modern food industries still ultimately rely on the health of both agricultural and natural ecosystems.</p>
<p>Agricultural systems <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0143">rely on regulating services</a> like erosion protection, pollination and pest control. Regulating services, as the name suggests, regulate environmental conditions, including the climate and the water cycle.</p>
<p>A better-known example of this kind of service is <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-carbon-sequestration">carbon sequestration: the process of capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide</a>. It is a key climate regulation process that natural lands provide.</p>
<p>The Greenbelt scoops up an estimated 71 million tonnes of carbon annually. For context, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html">the average Canadian is responsible for about 20 tonnes</a> of carbon entering the atmosphere over the same period. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-wetland-an-ecologist-explains-191495">Wetlands are another example of a regulating service</a>. The soils and plants in wetlands — <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ontario-greenbelt-farmland-wetlands-floodplains/">some of which are targeted for removal from the Greenbelt</a> — take up water and absorb carbon and other pollutants. This offers not only flood control, but also helps to clean both the water and air.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/pollution-timebombs-contaminated-wetlands-are-ticking-towards-ignition-208345">Pollution timebombs: Contaminated wetlands are ticking towards ignition</a>
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<p>Finally, cultural services capture the spiritual, historical and cultural significance of certain natural lands and ecosystems. These services also include things like recreation, aesthetics and the <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/the-athletes-way/202204/why-living-near-greenery-helps-us-think-better">general improvements to our well-being</a> that <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nature-that-nurtures/">come from being in or around nature</a> — and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2022.101502">cultural services are particularly important for Indigenous Peoples</a>.</p>
<p>With over nine million people living within 20 kilometres of the Greenbelt, it provides a space for nearly a quarter of Canada’s population to enjoy these benefits. </p>
<h2>A diverse support system</h2>
<p>Biodiversity supports these ecosystem services, helping to keep natural processes working. Not all environments will provide the same services and having several types of ecosystems helps to maintain the wide variety of services we need — a type of biodiversity called ecosystem diversity.</p>
<p>In a healthy, resilient ecosystem, many different species will perform the same function, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ncon.2015.11.001">something known as “functional diversity.”</a> For example, there are many different insects — bees, butterflies, beetles and more — that pollinate flowering plants. With many species doing the same job, the ecosystem can keep humming along even if one is impacted by disease, droughts or heat waves.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/ivy-dandelions-and-other-common-wildflowers-are-often-seen-as-weeds-but-theyre-a-crucial-resource-for-pollinating-insects-210813">Ivy, dandelions and other common wildflowers are often seen as weeds – but they're a crucial resource for pollinating insects</a>
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<p>Genetic biodiversity — the variety of genetic material that exists within a species — is the basis for natural selection. It allows species to evolve and survive in changing environments — something that is increasingly important in a warming world.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.greenbelt.ca/biodiversity_in_ontario">The Greenbelt is home to 78 species at risk</a>. Several of <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9806793/ontario-ford-government-greenbelt-changes-at-risk-species/">these species are located on the parcels of land slated to lose their protections</a>, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/barn-owls-reflect-moonlight-in-order-to-stun-their-prey-122796">barn owls</a>, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/species-risk-public-registry/related-information/faq-consultation-recovery-strategy-eastern-meadowlark.html">the eastern meadowlark</a> and <a href="https://www.thesudburystar.com/news/local-news/federal-money-to-help-researchers-study-health-of-blandings-turtles-in-sudbury">Blanding’s turtle</a>.</p>
<h2>The land-use battle</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/5-key-drivers-nature-crisis">leading driver of biodiversity loss is the destruction of habitats due to changes in land use</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/adjusting-the-intensity-of-farming-can-help-address-climate-change-191293">mainly for agricultural purposes</a> and general urbanization.</p>
<p>This is what world leaders are trying to curtail with the launch of the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund in Vancouver this past week — with <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2023/08/canada-announces-contribution-to-global-biodiversity-framework-fund-to-protect-worlds-nature.html">Canada pledging $200 million dollars to the cause</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this type of habitat destruction is also exactly what is being proposed for the Greenbelt.</p>
<p>The issue is not only about the amount of land that is protected, but also where it is and its connection to other natural areas. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500052">fragmentation of ecosystems</a> — where natural lands are divided into smaller, isolated patches — restricts the movement of species and can impact both functional and genetic diversity.</p>
<p>The current setup of the Greenbelt helps to prevent fragmentation by <a href="https://ontarionature.org/greenbelt-lands-at-stake-blog/">connecting landscapes, allowing wildlife</a> to move between different areas. Slicing out one chunk of protected land and passing those protections elsewhere could destroy this.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/protecting-biodiversity-and-making-it-accessible-has-paid-off-for-costa-rica-180301">Protecting biodiversity – and making it accessible – has paid off for Costa Rica</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Ultimately, biodiversity plays a vital role in supporting the ecosystem services we, and all life on earth, rely upon and will become even more important as we face a changing climate. </p>
<p>In the face of distracting political controversy it is easy to lose sight of a more fundamental fact: that preserving the Greenbelt — and Canadian biodiversity in general — is essential to our ongoing survival.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211719/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Loog receives funding from CIRAIG, the International Reference Center for Life Cycle Assessment and Sustainable Transition and its industrial partners.</span></em></p>While Canada pledges $200 million to promote biodiversity, Doug Ford removes lands from the Greenbelt. Here is why we all should care.Kathryn Loog, PhD Candidate, Industrial Engineering, Polytechnique MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2116292023-08-17T19:34:17Z2023-08-17T19:34:17ZDoug Ford’s Greenbelt scandal: The beginning of the end of his years in power?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543110/original/file-20230816-17-r4v3zi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1908%2C7454%2C3035&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks during a news conference in Mississauga, Ont., on Aug. 11, 2023, two days after a scathing auditor general report into the Greenbelt.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Cole Burston</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/doug-fords-greenbelt-scandal-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-his-years-in-power" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The findings of Ontario’s <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/Greenbelt_en.pdf">auditor general</a> on the provincial government’s decision to remove 7,400 acres from the Greater Toronto Area Greenbelt came as no surprise to those who have been closely following Premier Doug Ford’s approach to planning and development.</p>
<p>Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk determined:</p>
<p>— Well-connected developers were given direct access to ministerial staff and the opportunity to rewrite planning rules to suit their own interests;</p>
<p>— Normal decision-making processes and planning rules were bypassed;</p>
<p>— <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-ontarios-housing-plan-been-built-on-a-foundation-of-evidentiary-sand-198133">Overwhelming evidence</a> that indicated there was no need to remove land from the Greenbelt to meet the region’s housing needs was ignored;</p>
<p>— Decisions were made to provide billions of dollars in benefits to private interests that won’t enhance housing affordability in any way.</p>
<p>All of this is part of a wider pattern of behaviour for the Ford government over the past five years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a yellow suit with thick brown hair speaks into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ontario Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk speaks to the media during a news conference regarding her report on the Greenbelt on Aug. 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Arlyn McAdorey</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Par for the course</h2>
<p>The Greenbelt controversy is the culmination of a series of troubling government <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qqljI_mBx4&feature=share">decisions and legislative</a> changes since Ford was first elected in 2018. </p>
<p>These have included the widespread use of <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/ministers-zoning-order-ontario-explainer/">ministerial zoning orders, known as MZOs</a>, to override local plans and city council decisions in favour of development interests. </p>
<p>In addition, developers have been invited to rewrite the planning rules — all mandated by municipalities and communities to facilitate and manage urban growth via existing provincial policies — to suit their own interests. </p>
<p>There are examples throughout Toronto and its bedroom communities — including in <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-developers-propose-taller-towers-for-torontos-midtown/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links">midtown and downtown Toronto</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-ministerial-zoning-orders-1.6421555">Richmond Hill, Markham</a> <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/mississauga-lakeview-village-mzo-1.6844018">and Mississauga</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1515901681770409989"}"></div></p>
<p>The roles of <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/ontario-strips-conservation-authority-powers/">conservation authorities</a> and local governments in decision-making have been systemically marginalized, and <a href="https://www.osler.com/en/resources/regulations/2022/forget-everything-you-thought-you-knew-about-planning-approvals-in-ontario%E2%80%A6">planning rules related to both built and natural heritage conservation sites</a> have been shredded. </p>
<p>Meantime, the costs of the infrastructure needed to support private, for-profit development <a href="https://www.amo.on.ca/sites/default/files/assets/DOCUMENTS/Submissions/SC_HICP-LTR_AP_AMO_Submission_Bill%2023_More_Homes_Built_Faster_Act_20221116.pdf">have been transferred</a> to local and provincial taxpayers.</p>
<p>The province’s land-use planning system — including <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/greenbelt-plan-2017">the Greenbelt</a>
<a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/place-grow-growth-plan-greater-golden-horseshoe">and growth</a> plans for the Greater Toronto Area — were once the subject of <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/86986/ontario-celebrates-second-major-award-for-growth-plan">international acclaim</a> for their management of intense growth while farmland, housing affordability and natural heritage areas were protected. </p>
<p>Now that system has been transformed into an instrument wielded by the province to overcome any objections to the wishes of developers.</p>
<h2>Policy failure</h2>
<p>The result has been a predictable picture of policy failure — a <a href="https://marksw.blog.yorku.ca/2022/11/07/doug-fords-more-homes-built-faster-act-bill-23-and-the-future-of-the-greater-toronto-region/">development boom</a> defined by the construction of single-use high-rises, mostly condominiums, in urban areas and sprawling low-density housing in the suburbs. </p>
<p>That trend has been escalated by the removal of the 7,400 acres from the Greenbelt.</p>
<p>This model of “<a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/04/20/ontarios-top-down-approach-to-urban-growth-is-reversing-progress-on-many-levels.html">tall and sprawl</a>” development has done next to nothing to improve housing affordability, particularly for those at the lower end of the income scale. </p>
<p>In fact, in some areas, this industry-driven model is leading to <a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/social-innovation/Programs/Affordable_Housing_Visual_Systems_Map_Oxford.pdf">significant losses</a> of existing affordable rental housing as they’re displaced by investor-owned condominium developments.</p>
<p>The same <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontario-election-4-ways-doug-ford-has-changed-the-provinces-politics-182660">basic principles</a> evident in the government’s handling of the Greenbelt and housing files can be seen across a range of files, from <a href="https://marksw.blog.yorku.ca/2023/07/11/ontario-turns-rational-energy-planning-on-its-head/">energy</a> to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/doug-ford-s-private-health-care-plan-is-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-medicare/article_e5c55c28-3df9-5540-9240-4108eb938a5b.html">health care</a>. </p>
<p>The Ford government engages in a casual approach to decision-making that regards normal governance processes as delay-inducing red tape. It tends to respond uncritically to whatever its favoured economic interests tell it to do. </p>
<p>That tendency was highlighted in Ford’s recent Greenbelt news conference, when he seemed to define good governance as saying “yes” to whatever business lobbyists ask for.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IHhSXZihai4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Doug Ford holds a news conference hours after the Ontario auditor general released a scathing Greenbelt report. (CPAC)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Perhaps even more disturbing is his apparent blindness to the meaning of <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-the-buck-stops-nowhere-as-doug-ford-dispenses-with-ministerial/">ministerial responsibility</a> or accountability in a system of democratic governance. Both Ford and Housing Minister Steve Clark claim they didn’t know what the minister’s chief of staff was doing on the Greenbelt file. </p>
<p>Those claims are either admissions of catastrophic failures in management and oversight or an attempt to mislead the legislature, the auditor general and the public.</p>
<h2>Stonewalling</h2>
<p>So far, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2254543427510">the government has stonewalled</a> on the auditor general’s key recommendation — that the removal of lands from the Greenbelt must be re-evaluated in light of what the government itself admits was a <a href="https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=2742646">flawed decision-making process</a>. </p>
<p>But the political and legal fallout from the auditor general’s report seems destined to continue for some time.</p>
<p>A further report into the controversy from the Ontario legislature’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/housing-minister-chief-staff-integrity-commissioner-1.6932582">Integrity Commissioner</a> is on the horizon. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1691754944582324368"}"></div></p>
<p>Lysyk has already committed to a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-82-here-and-now-toronto/clip/16002583-auditor-general-bonnie-lysyk-breaks-findings-greenbelt-report">followup</a> audit.
<a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/08/12/news/environmental-group-green-party-call-police-investigation-ford-government-greenbelt">There are also calls</a> for an Ontario Provincial Police investigation into the Greenbelt decisions. A variety of potential procedural <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/greenbelt-stop-ford-ontario-1.6933082">and legal challenges</a> are under consideration. </p>
<p>Whether the entire episode will prompt the government to reconsider its evidence-free, friends-with-benefits approach to governing remains an open question. So does the question of whether the political and legal fallout will be substantial enough to mark the beginning of the end for Ford’s government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211629/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
He was involved in the development of the original GTA Greenbelt and Growth Plans, including serving on the Ministerial Advisory Committee on the Implementation of the Growth Plan. </span></em></p>Ontario’s Doug Ford government engages in a casual approach to decision-making that regards normal governance processes as nothing but delay-inducing red tape.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071942023-06-13T17:29:47Z2023-06-13T17:29:47ZDoug Ford at 5 years: Selling out Ontario’s future to please the well-connected<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531407/original/file-20230612-63747-qi3v54.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C239%2C4000%2C2413&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford attends a conference in May 2023 in Etobicoke, Ont. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Tijana Martin</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The initial political success of the Doug Ford government in Ontario <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2022/doug-ford-political-durability/">has been attributed</a> to its ability to connect with those who have seen themselves as the losers in the province’s economic transition from a manufacturing and resource extraction-based economy to one based on services. </p>
<p>The government’s political survival through last year’s provincial election, despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ontario-can-recover-from-doug-fords-covid-19-governance-disaster-159783">its bumbling</a> handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, has been attributed to a <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/06/09/the-inside-story-of-how-doug-ford-beat-the-ndp-and-destroyed-the-liberals-in-the-ontario-election.html">range of factors</a>. They include the inability of the opposition parties to offer compelling alternatives and deeper shifts in the province’s political culture.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ontario-election-doug-fords-victory-shows-hes-not-the-polarizing-figure-he-once-was-183885">Ontario election: Doug Ford's victory shows he's not the polarizing figure he once was</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Ford’s Progressive Conservatives <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/06/03/18-of-ontario-voters-handed-doug-ford-a-majority-government-whether-thats-a-bad-thing-depends-who-you-ask.html">received a thin second electoral mandate, with less than 18 per cent of the ballots of eligible voters</a> and more than 400,000 fewer votes than in 2018. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the government has doubled down on <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontario-election-4-ways-doug-ford-has-changed-the-provinces-politics-182660">key themes</a> that emerged during the pre-pandemic period of its first mandate.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-continuing-to-turn-his-back-on-the-people-despite-new-faces-121547">Doug Ford: Continuing to turn his back on 'the people' despite new faces</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Three pillars</h2>
<p>That pre-pandemic phase was characterized by:</p>
<ol>
<li>A deeply reactive, uncritical and, at times, increasingly authoritarian approach to governance.</li>
<li>An agenda that was defined by responsiveness only to certain types of well-established interests.</li>
<li>A casual approach to eliminating provincial revenue streams and embedding long-term costs and liabilities.</li>
</ol>
<p>The Ford government’s willingness to use the power of the province <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-developers-at-doug-fords-daughters-wedding-only-deepens-the-trouble/">to benefit those well-connected</a> has been most evident around land-use planning and development. </p>
<p>The province’s land-use planning system, including <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/greenbelt-plan-2017">the Greenbelt</a> <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/place-grow-growth-plan-greater-golden-horseshoe">and growth</a> plans for the Greater Toronto Area, was once the subject of <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/86986/ontario-celebrates-second-major-award-for-growth-plan">international acclaim</a> for its management of intense growth pressures in the region while protecting farmland, housing affordability and natural heritage areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Signs urge Doug Ford to keep his hands off the Greenbelt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Signs voicing opposition to the Ontario government’s plans for the province’s Greenbelt are seen outside homes within the Duffins Rouge Agricultural Preserve, part of the Greenbelt area, in May 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A succession of <a href="https://thepointer.com/article/2023-04-24/experts-say-pcs-proposed-bill-97-is-a-sprawl-inducing-full-frontal-assault-on-ontario-agriculture">housing bills and policy changes proposed and adopted</a> over the past year have completed the system’s transformation into an instrument wielded by the province to overcome any objections to the development industry’s wishes.</p>
<p>Another striking feature of the re-elected Ford government has been its tendency to eliminate provincial revenue streams while entrenching long-term costs. The full impact of this conduct has been masked in the immediate post-pandemic period by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-budget-2023-ford-1.6788370">buoyant provincial revenues</a> and the extent to which costs and liabilities are being passed along into the future.</p>
<h2>Lost revenues</h2>
<p>The cancellation of the province’s <a href="https://www.fao-on.org/en/blog/publications/cap-and-trade-ending">cap-and-trade system</a> for greenhouse gas emissions, the pre-2022 election termination of vehicle licensing fees and a post-election cut in provincial <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/11/13/doug-ford-extends-57-cents-per-litre-gas-tax-cut-for-another-year.html">gasoline taxes</a> have each cost the provincial treasury approximately $1 billion in lost annual revenues.</p>
<p>Additional drains on provincial resources are happening at the same time. <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-43/session-1/bill-23">Bill 23</a>, the province’s More Homes Built Faster Act, hindered the ability of municipalities to make developers cover the costs of infrastructure needed to support new development. The province then promised <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-bill-23-reaction-1.6669428">to make municipal governments “whole</a>” if they couldn’t afford these costs. </p>
<p>The arrangement seems likely to translate into a <a href="https://www.amo.on.ca/sites/default/files/assets/DOCUMENTS/Submissions/SC_HICP-LTR_AP_AMO_Submission_Bill%2023_More_Homes_Built_Faster_Act_20221116.pdf">$1 billion annual gift</a> to the for-profit development industry on behalf of provincial taxpayers. </p>
<p>This is on top of the nearly <a href="https://www.fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publications/energy-and-electricity-2022">$7 billion a year</a> spent from general revenues to artificially lower hydro rates. These are all resources that could otherwise be going to areas badly in need of investment, like health care and education.</p>
<p>The situation looks even worse going forward. Ontario seems <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2023/ontario-hydro-climate-mess/">on track</a> to embed enormous long-term costs in the electricity system. <a href="https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/The-Evolving-Grid/Pathways-to-Decarbonization">A nuclear-heavy plan</a> to decarbonize the electricity grid has an estimated capital cost in the range of $20 billion a year over next two decades.</p>
<p>An increased reliance on natural gas-fired generation will push costs <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/11/30/new-gas-plants-will-cause-ontario-hydro-rates-to-rise-report-says.html">higher still</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1621502531015696386"}"></div></p>
<h2>Public transit, climate action</h2>
<p>Similar problems are emerging in other areas. </p>
<p>In terms of public transit, the estimated cost of the high-profile Ontario line through central Toronto has nearly doubled absent major changes in the province’s approach to <a href="https://marksw.blog.yorku.ca/2023/02/24/has-metrolinx-become-a-law-unto-itself/">project management and oversight</a>. </p>
<p>The price tag is approaching <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2022/11/23/ontario-line-costs-nearly-double-after-awarding-of-latest-contracts.html">$20 billion</a> even though construction has barely begun. It’s at risk of dwarfing the multi-billion dollar debacles of the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2023/05/18/the-eglinton-lrt-wont-open-this-year-thats-not-the-worst-news-we-heard-about-the-project-this-week.html">Eglinton</a> and <a href="http://www.archives.gov.on.ca/en/e_records/OLRTPI/documents/final-report/index.html">Ottawa</a> light rapid-transit projects.</p>
<p>What’s more, the province continues to have no meaningful strategy around climate change, despite the growing evidence of its impacts, including <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9747680/ontario-more-forest-fires-unprecedented-season-canada/">this spring’s wildfires</a> in Ontario. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The orange flames of a wildfire and billowing brown smoke are seen from above." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Sudbury 17 wildfire burns east of Mississagi Provincial Park near Elliot Lake, Ont., on June 4, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Handout, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry</span></span>
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<p>The province’s <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/The_State_Of_The_Environment_EN.pdf">Auditor General and Environmental Commissioner</a> recently highlighted other areas of ongoing environmental challenges, ranging from air and water quality to biodiversity losses. The province has no effective plans to address either.</p>
<p>In fact, it has spent much of the past <a href="https://sei.info.yorku.ca/files/2023/03/The-Environment-Climate-Change-and-Market-Populist-Politics-Working-January-20231.pdf?x60126">five years</a> actively dismantling the agencies, laws and programs developed over the previous seven decades that had delivered improvements in environmental quality. </p>
<p>In doing so, the Ford government is effectively building environmental liabilities that will be borne by generations to come. That point was highlighted by the province’s <a href="https://miningwatch.ca/blog/2023/3/7/more-worse-mining-ontarios-proposed-building-more-mines-act">dramatic weakening</a> of the rules around mine closure this spring.</p>
<h2>Connections are key</h2>
<p>Five years into the Ford era, Ontario finds itself in a precarious moment. </p>
<p>The provincial government’s agenda seems to flow from whatever ideas or proposals happen to come its way from sources with access to the government and who are aligned with its policy priorities, regardless of the costs and coherence of what’s proposed. </p>
<p>Well-established industrial, resource extraction, gas-fired and nuclear energy production interests, along with land developers, have tended to be the big winners in Ford’s Ontario. </p>
<p>But major long-term economic and environmental costs and liabilities are being run up as a result by the Ford government, eroding the province’s capacity to deal with future challenges. </p>
<p>In effect, the province’s future is being mortgaged to serve those well-connected to the government. Few Canadian provinces have had a need for better governance with such a scant short-term prospect of seeing that need met.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Doug Ford’s Ontario government is running up major long-term economic and environmental costs and liabilities, eroding the province’s capacity to deal with future challenges.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1981332023-01-22T13:33:13Z2023-01-22T13:33:13ZHas Ontario’s housing ‘plan’ been built on a foundation of evidentiary sand?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/has-ontario-s-housing--plan--been-built-on-a-foundation-of-evidentiary-sand" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In late 2022, the Ontario government adopted <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-43/session-1/bill-23">Bill 23</a>, the <em>More Homes Built Faster Act</em>. The legislation made <a href="https://yourstoprotect.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2022/11/Big-Tent_-Statement-on-Bill-23-and-Greebelt-Land-Removal.pdf">sweeping changes</a> to the province’s land use planning system. </p>
<p>The province also passed <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-43/session-1/bill-39">Bill 39 — <em>Better Municipal Governance Act, 2022</em></a> — which allows the mayors of Toronto and Ottawa to pass <a href="https://www.durhamradionews.com/archives/162756">bylaws related to provincial “priorities” like housing</a> with only a third of the support of their councils.</p>
<p>Premier Doug Ford’s government justified the adoption of this sweeping housing legislation, as well as the opening of parts of <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ontario-planning-development-of-50000-new-homes-on-protected-greenbelt/">Ontario’s Greenbelt</a> for development, on the basis of the need to address “the housing supply crisis.”</p>
<p>Specifically, the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8853748/doug-ford-london-housing/">province pointed</a> to a <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/mmah-housing-affordability-task-force-report-en-2022-02-07-v2.pdf">February 2022 provincial housing affordability task force report</a>, which said that Ontario needed to build 1.5 million homes over the next decade to address the shortage of housing.</p>
<p>The task force report provided the foundation for shredding of much of the province’s land-use planning and local governance structures, all in favour of development interests. But there has been very little <a href="https://cela.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Bill_23_The_Question_of_Need_11NOV2022.pdf">serious examination</a> of how the task force arrived at the 1.5 million homes figure.</p>
<h2>A report that doesn’t add up</h2>
<p>The provincial housing task force report stated that Ontario was 1.2 million houses short of the G7 average and needed to build 1.5 million new homes over the next 10 years. This would imply building 150,000 new dwellings per year.</p>
<p>In order to reach this conclusion, the task force report claimed that Canada has the lowest number of houses per 1,000 people of any G7 nation. However, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontarios-affordable-housing-task-force-report-does-not-address-the-real-problems-176869">it has been observed</a> that the number of dwellings per 1,000 people is not a very useful comparison because people live in households.</p>
<p>In Ontario, because the average household size is <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0026m/2017002/app-ann-g-eng.htm">2.58 people per household</a>, 1,000 people would only require 388 housing units, whereas in <a href="https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/average-household-size-in-germany-2096124/">Germany</a>, for example, 1,000 people would require 507 dwelling units because of an average household size of only 1.97.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/ontarios-affordable-housing-task-force-report-does-not-address-the-real-problems-176869">It has also been suggested</a> that the task force report was over-aggressive in calling for 150,000 new dwellings per year. </p>
<p>Ontario’s population grew by an average of <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&SearchText=Ontario&DGUIDlist=2021A000235&GENDERlist=1,2,3&STATISTIClist=1&HEADERlist=0">155,090 per year from 2016 to 2021</a>. Applying the Ontario average household size to this population growth rate reveals that the need for housing is roughly 60,000 new households per year, not 150,000. </p>
<p>The construction of 60,000 houses <a href="https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-note.housing-note--may-12-2021-.html">is actually lower</a> than the 79,000 housing starts Ontario averaged per year between 2016 and 2021.</p>
<p>What’s more, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-a-shortage-of-homes-isnt-the-main-reason-house-prices-keep-rising/">Ontario’s population</a> grew by 10.7 per cent from 2011 to 2021, while the number of occupied dwellings grew by 12.5 per cent. This means that the number of dwellings has actually been growing faster than the population.</p>
<h2>Unnecessary Greenbelt developments</h2>
<p>Ontario’s construction industry is already <a href="https://www.on-sitemag.com/infrastructure/construction-capacity-among-major-concerns-for-ontario-as-it-plans-four-line-28-5b-transit-expansion/1003965964/">working at capacity</a>. Toronto is reported as having the <a href="https://www.gta-homes.com/real-insights/developments/toronto-continues-to-house-north-americas-largest-number-of-cranes/">largest number</a> of active construction cranes in North America and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-real-estate-slow-sales-preconstruction-condos/">has recorded high</a> numbers of condominium completions.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1612499657254440981"}"></div></p>
<p>With respect to the supply of land — which was a key justification for the government’s decision to remove lands from the Greenbelt — <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/mmah-housing-affordability-task-force-report-en-2022-02-07-v2.pdf">the task force report itself confirmed</a> that there is plenty of land available in existing urban areas. This includes at least 250,000 new homes and apartments that were approved in 2019 or earlier but <a href="https://www.therecord.com/opinion/2022/01/18/waterloo-region-mayors-call-for-collaboration-to-fix-housing-crisis.html">have not yet been built</a>. </p>
<p>Research undertaken for the environmental organization Environmental Defence revealed that the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Areas have <a href="https://environmentaldefence.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Environmental-Defence-Housing-Affordability-Backgrounder-final-Jan-18.pdf">88,000 acres</a> of already designated new (or greenfield or undeveloped) development lands within existing settlement area boundaries. </p>
<p>That is more than three time the amount of greenfield land (26,000 acres) used for development over the preceding two decades.</p>
<h2>Building a sustainable and liveable province</h2>
<p>All of this evidence suggests that there was neither a shortage of already authorized housing starts to accommodate Ontario’s growing population, nor a shortage of already designated land on which to build homes. </p>
<p>Simply put, the province’s sweeping housing strategy has been built on a foundation of sand.</p>
<p>The reality is that the region is already in the midst of a <a href="https://www.on-sitemag.com/infrastructure/construction-capacity-among-major-concerns-for-ontario-as-it-plans-four-line-28-5b-transit-expansion/1003965964/">major development boom</a>. The problem is that it has been a boom that has done little to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/10/26/the-province-is-setting-a-housing-affordability-trap-for-toronto.html">improve housing affordability</a>, particularly for those at the lower end of the income scale who need it the most. </p>
<p>The housing “crisis” has had less to do with housing supply, and far more to do with the nature and location of what is being built.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://cela.ca/reviewing-bill-23-more-homes-built-faster-act-2022/">draconian measures</a> in Bills 23 and 39, and the province’s accompanying moves to remove lands from the Greenbelt and allow development in the <a href="https://ontariofarmlandtrust.ca/2022/12/12/bill-39-undermines-public-interest/">Duffins-Rouge Agricultural Reserve</a>, seem likely to make these problems worse than ever. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/2022/12/02/understanding-the-fuss-about-ontario-bill-23.html">regressive changes</a> being made under the province’s housing legislation will accelerate urban sprawl and the accompanying losses of prime agricultural and natural heritage lands. </p>
<p>They would undermine efforts to build and protect real affordable housing and liveable communities, respond to a <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/reporttopics/envreports/env19/2019_EnergyConservationProgressReport.pdf">changing climate</a> and ensure democratic governance at the local level.</p>
<p>The questions of housing and development in the Greater Toronto Area are far more <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/2022/04/17/missing-the-mark-on-housing.html">complicated</a> than a need to simply build more and faster. </p>
<p>Increased federal immigration targets put <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-immigration-to-canada-hits-record-in-2022/">additional stress</a> on the housing market. But if anything, that reinforces the need for a vision for a sustainable, liveable and affordable region and not one focused on maximizing the development industry’s returns on investment. </p>
<p>The debates prompted by the Ford government’s housing strategy may mark the beginning of a conversation about what that future might look like. They cannot be its end.</p>
<p><em>Joe Castrilli, Counsel with the Canadian Environmental Law Association, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>Evidence suggests that Ontario neither had a shortage of pre-authorized housing starts to accommodate its growing population, nor did it have a shortage of designated land to build such homes.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1761282022-02-03T17:44:42Z2022-02-03T17:44:42ZGiving developers free rein isn’t the solution to the GTHA housing challenges<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443905/original/file-20220201-23-1ulefqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3003%2C1999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Housing affordability remains a challenge in Toronto and surrounding areas, despite an increasing number of developments.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recently, concerns have peaked over skyrocketing housing prices, the lack of affordable housing and intensive development pressures in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area (GTHA). The situation has prompted suggestion that the solution to these problems is to “<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-there-may-be-an-answer-to-the-housing-crisis-let-cities-sprawl/">Let Cities Sprawl</a>” and “<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-governments-seem-to-be-missing-the-point-on-canadas-housing-crisis/">build baby, build</a>!” </p>
<p>These kinds of proposals are likely to make developers very happy, but do little to solve the housing crisis or wider problems related to development patterns in the region.</p>
<p>The current situation is the result of many factors, including continuing <a href="https://www.bot.com/Portals/0/PDFs/TRBOT-Shaping-Our-Future-090120.pdf">employment growth</a> particularly in the service and knowledge-based sectors, and an extended period of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/04/business/low-interest-rates-puzzle.html">historically low</a> interest rates. </p>
<p>Population growth has continued in part due to <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadas-next-wave-of-homebuyers-set-to-add-more-fuel-to-overheated/">the federal government’s historically high immigration targets and the concentration of new arrivals in relatively few places, including the GTA.</a>. </p>
<p>The provincial government’s own planning policies have, predictably, made the situation worse. </p>
<p>These factors have combined to fuel runaway housing prices reinforced by speculation and the activities domestic and offshore “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/investors-in-ontario-real-estate-market-1.6258199">investors</a>,” and produce a development boom that is doing little to actually provide affordable housing for families.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/housing-is-both-a-human-right-and-a-profitable-asset-and-thats-the-problem-172846">Housing is both a human right and a profitable asset, and that's the problem</a>
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<h2>Weakened rules</h2>
<p>Premier Doug Ford’s government, for its part, weakened <a href="https://urbantoronto.ca/news/2019/01/ontarios-growth-plan-changes-end-smart-growth">planning rules</a> specifically designed to contain sprawl, promote higher density and support affordable communities. In addition, the province has repeatedly overridden specific local community development plans in favour of development interests.</p>
<p>High profile cases of such behaviour have included the re-writing of two community development plans in Toronto: <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2019/06/05/province-to-change-development-rules-for-toronto.html">Midtown in Focus</a> and <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/planning-development/planning-studies-initiatives/tocore-planning-torontos-downtown/">CoreTO</a>. In other cases, like the massive <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/08/10/doug-fords-government-fast-tracks-huge-futuristic-development-near-lake-simcoe.html">Orbit development on the shores of Lake Simcoe</a> the province has simply bypassed the normal planning process altogether.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford addresses summit on housing affordability.</span></figcaption>
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<p>On the whole, the province has <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/annualreports/arreports/en21/AR_LandUse_en21.pdf">moved from a rules-, evidence- and policy-based approach to planning</a> to one based on access, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2021/04/03/ford-friends-with-benefits-an-inside-look-at-the-money-power-and-influence-behind-the-push-to-build-highway-413.html">connections</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2021/03/08/fords-change-to-development-rules-is-a-massive-overreach.html">ministerial whim</a>.</p>
<p>At the same time, the province is aggressively pursuing the expansion of the provincial highway system, most noticeably the proposed Highway 413 through Vaughan to Milton, and the <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/highway-413-bradford-bypass-explainer/">Bradford Bypass</a>. Both cut through the GTHA greenbelt and have been described as “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/highway-413-carbon-emissions-1.6238421">highways to sprawl</a>.” They are also likely to encourage more low-density automobile-dependent developments on high-value agricultural and natural heritage lands.</p>
<p>The overall result is the worst of both worlds in planning and development terms: <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2021/11/08/has-the-yonge-eglinton-centre-become-a-case-study-in-how-not-do-to-urban-intensification.html">uncontrolled high-rise development free-for-all in urban areas</a>, and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2021/11/23/ontarios-return-to-the-business-of-building-roads-to-sprawl.html">outwards sprawl and car-dependent development</a>.</p>
<h2>Policy reform</h2>
<p>If nothing else, the situation makes it clear that giving the development industry whatever it asks for — the apparent essence of the Ford government’s approach to planning matters — is failing to produce communities that are liveable, affordable or sustainable. The province needs to return to a consistent and constructive role in the planning process.</p>
<p>In the short term, aggressive steps include additional tax measures and, potentially, a ban on non-resident buyers of homes and condominiums.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-solve-the-housing-crisis-address-super-charged-demand-169809">Want to solve the housing crisis? Address super-charged demand</a>
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<p>More broadly, the province needs to give cities back the power to make their own decisions about the form, shape and pace of developments through a transparent, rules- and evidence-based planning process.</p>
<p>Policy reform needs to emphasize the need for compact, affordable and complete communities. It also needs to require the establishment of the necessary infrastructures (transportation, sewer and water, educational, cultural and community) before development proceeds. Prime agricultural and natural heritage lands need to be protected. And, in the context of a changing climate, renewed attention needs to be given to <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/independent-review-2019-flood-events-ontario/background-and-2019-flooding-ontario">shorelines, valleys and other areas that are at risk of flooding</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://olt.gov.on.ca/">The Ontario Land Tribunal</a>, successor to the Ontario Municipal Board, is responsible for managing conflicts that arise during land-use planning. It has shown itself to be relentlessly pro-development, and requires fundamental reform, if not outright abolition.</p>
<p>The failure of the private sector to build affordable rental housing in response to the loosening of <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/11/15/removing-rent-control-on-new-units-wont-ease-torontos-housing-crisis-tenant-and-housing-experts-say.html">rent controls</a> means that controls need to be strengthened, and support provided for non-profit and cooperative housing development.</p>
<p>And finally, there needs to be a wider discussion about the pace of growth and development in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton region, and its desirability from the viewpoint of the region’s residents. So far, the province has offered no vision for the region’s future, and given the apparent problems of accelerated growth, a better vision is needed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176128/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada </span></em></p>The Ontario government has, under Doug Ford, revised policies and approaches in favour of developers. Policy reform is essential to address the growing problem of unaffordable housing.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1121272019-02-24T15:27:22Z2019-02-24T15:27:22ZDoug Ford’s Ontario: Who’s winning, and what it means for the province’s future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/260036/original/file-20190220-148509-1xdzppu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are lots of losers in Doug Ford's Ontario. Who are the winners? </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The poor performance on environment and climate change issues by Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government is well-known.</p>
<p>The province’s cap-and-trade system to control greenhouse gas emissions has been <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/greenon-program-ends-1.4713161">terminated</a>. So too has the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/greenon-program-ends-1.4713161">GreenOn program</a> that municipalities, hospitals, colleges and universities, school boards and homeowners were counting on to help finance energy efficiency retrofits to their buildings, provide improved transit services and adapt to the increasingly obvious impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>On the electricity front, more than 700 renewable energy projects, mostly sponsored by municipalities and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/first-nations-renewable-energy-projects-1.4348595">Indigenous communities</a>, were <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/758-renewable-energy-cancelled-1.4746293">arbitrarily cancelled</a>.</p>
<p>The long-suffering ratepayers of Hydro One will find themselves having to absorb the $103 million cost of the failed attempt to acquire the United States utility Avista, an effort <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/2019/01/01/clock-keeps-ticking-on-the-avista-hydro-one-merger.html">torpedoed</a> by the premier’s firing of the CEO and board of the partially privatized utility. </p>
<p>The list of losers under the Ford regime is now expanding beyond the energy and climate change themes that were the early targets of his government. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-government-says-full-day-learning-will-stay-but-it-won-t-necessarily-be-kindergarten-1.5002881">Kindergarten</a> and primary school students are now faced with the likelihood of larger class sizes.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2019/02/05/ford-government-considering-ways-to-speed-up-evictions.html">Tenants</a> are likely facing faster evictions.</p>
<p>Post-secondary institutions and their students have found that a <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2019/01/16/ford-governments-tuition-cut-to-cost-universities-360-million-and-colleges-80-million.html">tuition fee cut</a> has translated into reductions in institutional budgets and student funding.</p>
<p>The parents and families of <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2019/02/06/ford-governments-bait-and-switch-on-autism.html">autistic children</a> are emerging as the victims of a similar bait-and-switch funding strategy.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-changes-to-the-ontario-autism-program-will-hurt-kids-like-my-son-111407">How changes to the Ontario Autism Program will hurt kids like my son</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Those in need of complex health-care services may find themselves at the mercy of a proposed health <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/09/26/fears-grow-of-more-private-health-care-under-doug-ford.html">mega-agency</a>.</p>
<p>The emerging situation begs the question: Who’s winning in Doug Ford’s Ontario? </p>
<h2>List of winners is short</h2>
<p>Despite the government’s frequent claims to be aiming to make the province “<a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/10/26/doug-ford-open-for-business-signs/">open for business</a>,” there are surprisingly few clear winners under the Ford regime. Those who are winning hardly represent future pillars for Ontario’s economy and society.</p>
<p>Developers of sprawling low-density urban development, particularly on farmland locations at the periphery of existing cities and towns, have emerged as consistent favourites of the Ford regime. </p>
<p>Even before he was elected, the premier was caught making comments about opening “<a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/04/30/doug-ford-assured-developers-he-plans-to-open-up-greenbelt-to-housing-development.html">a big chunk</a>” of the protected greenbelt of farms and forests surrounding the city of Toronto and other urban areas of southern Ontario to urban development. </p>
<p>After retreating from those statements in the heat of the campaign, once in government, Ford attempted to open the door to greenbelt development through <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-42/session-1/bill-66">Bill 66</a>, the Restoring Ontario’s Competitiveness Act, only to have to <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4880526/ontario-bill-66-greenbelt-development/">reverse himself</a> again in the face of intense public and municipal opposition.</p>
<h2>Subdivisions, strip malls & parking lots</h2>
<p>More subtly, the government is now proposing changes to the <a href="https://www.placestogrow.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9">GTA Regional Growth Plan</a>. </p>
<p>The growth plan was adopted at the same time as the Greenbelt Plan as part of the province’s <a href="https://www.pembina.org/pub/building-sustainable-communities-ontario">overall strategy</a> to curb urban sprawl and spur the development of more complete communities designed to reduce the need to drive to work, school, shopping and other activities. </p>
<p>The Ford government’s <a href="http://urbantoronto.ca/news/2019/01/ontarios-growth-plan-changes-end-smart-growth">proposed changes</a> would reduce requirements for transit-viable new developments, and make urban expansions onto farmland easier.</p>
<p>Making it easier to turn prime agricultural land into subdivisions, strip malls and parking lots hardly constitutes a sustainable economic or environmental strategy for the province in the long term. Sprawling development embeds crippling <a href="http://thecostofsprawl.com/report/SP_SuburbanSprawl_Oct2013_opt.pdf">long-term costs</a> of maintaining roads, sewers and water lines and other infrastructure over large areas.</p>
<p>What’s more, low-density, single-use development patterns tend to work against mixing residential, economic, commercial and institutional land uses that have been associated with the kinds of <a href="http://www.neptis.org/publications/how-regional-economy-changing-over-time/chapters/knowledge-based-production-and">creative, knowledge- and service-based activities</a> that now provide the foundation for much of the greater Toronto area and Hamilton region’s economy.</p>
<h2>Nuclear industry a winner</h2>
<p>The second major winner so far appears to be the province’s nuclear industry.</p>
<p>The Ford government <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-pickering-nuclear-1.4716064">made early</a> and completely unexamined commitments to the “life extension” of the aged nuclear facility in Pickering, east of Toronto, and to carry forward refurbishments of the Bruce and Darlington facilities. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/260046/original/file-20190220-148536-1u7uctf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/260046/original/file-20190220-148536-1u7uctf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/260046/original/file-20190220-148536-1u7uctf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/260046/original/file-20190220-148536-1u7uctf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/260046/original/file-20190220-148536-1u7uctf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/260046/original/file-20190220-148536-1u7uctf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/260046/original/file-20190220-148536-1u7uctf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ford announces his commitment to keeping the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station in operation until 2024 in Pickering, Ont., in June 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These projects constitute the largest energy investments in the province’s history and, as highlighted in the previous government’s own <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/2017-long-term-energy-plan">energy plan</a>, will be drivers of future increases in electricity rates for decades to come.</p>
<p>While these projects provide short-term employment in the regions associated with these facilities, in the longer term, the sector looks like a technological dead end. There have been no new CANDU reactor sales in more than two decades, and the few other new nuclear projects that were going forward in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Finland have been largely abandoned by their proponents as <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2017/10/a-dozen-reasons-for-the-economic-failure-of-nuclear-power/">hopelessly uneconomic</a>.</p>
<p>In effect, the Ford government has further reinforced the reliance of the Ontario electricity sector on nuclear energy, while other jurisdictions in North America and Europe moving forward with other <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/electricity-policy-is-falling-behind-the-energy-revolution/article34996377/">emerging energy technologies</a> focused on smart grids, renewable energy generation and energy storage. </p>
<p>The result, in combination with the government’s aversion to anything to do with renewable energy, may be to sideline the province’s role in the development of technologies that likely represent the best future pathways to environmentally and economically sustainable energy systems.</p>
<p>An economic strategy that focuses on facilitating urban sprawl and propping up a declining nuclear industry hardly provides a viable guide for the province’s future. </p>
<p>The very short list of winners, and a growing list of losers, in Doug Ford’s Ontario cannot bode well for the government’s political future. </p>
<p>The government needs to come up with a more sophisticated understanding of what “open for business” might really mean for an advanced sub-national jurisdiction in the 21st century, before its own political future, and more importantly, the province’s economy, environment and society, suffer the consequences of its lack of imagination and vision.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112127/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, and the George Cedric Metcalf Foundation.</span></em></p>The very short list of winners, and a growing list of losers, in Doug Ford’s Ontario does not bode well for the government’s political future – or the province.Mark Winfield, Professor of Environmental Studies, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/773932017-05-25T20:19:11Z2017-05-25T20:19:11ZGreen space – how much is enough, and what’s the best way to deliver it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170223/original/file-20170521-12217-1caiqf1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Providing green space can deliver health, social and environmental benefits for all urban residents – few other public health interventions can achieve all of this.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Anne Cleary</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Half of the world’s people now <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/half-worlds-population-live-urban-areas-un-report-finds/">live in urban areas</a>. This creates competition for resources and increases pressure on already limited green space. </p>
<p>Many urban areas are still experiencing active degradation or removal of green space. To reverse this trend and ensure the multiple benefits of green space are realised, we urgently need to move toward on-ground action.</p>
<p>However, there is no clear guidance on how to translate the evidence base on green space into action. There is limited information to guide green-space practitioners on how much is <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204614000310">“green enough”</a>, or on how to manage and maintain green space. There is also a lack of guidance on how to deliver the multiple benefits of green space with finite resources.</p>
<h2>Why we need green spaces</h2>
<p>A recent World Health Organisation (WHO) <a href="http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/urban-health/publications/2017/urban-green-space-interventions-and-health-a-review-of-impacts-and-effectiveness.-full-report-2017">report</a> aims to provide guidance on how to tackle the uncertainties of providing such spaces.</p>
<p>There is a <a href="http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/urban-health/publications/2016/urban-green-spaces-and-health-a-review-of-evidence-2016">substantial evidence base</a> to show that green space is good for us. It is associated with many <a href="https://theconversation.com/higher-density-cities-need-greening-to-stay-healthy-and-liveable-75840">health benefits</a>, both <a href="https://theconversation.com/living-here-will-make-you-fat-do-we-need-a-public-health-warning-57119">physical</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/biophilic-urbanism-how-rooftop-gardening-soothes-souls-76789">mental</a> – including reductions in illness and deaths, <a href="https://theconversation.com/reducing-stress-at-work-is-a-walk-in-the-park-57634">stress</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-people-just-park-themselves-so-how-do-we-promote-more-healthy-activity-in-public-parks-56421">obesity</a> – and a range of positive <a href="https://theconversation.com/greening-cities-makes-for-safer-neighbourhoods-62093">social</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/go-native-why-we-need-wildlife-allotments-to-bring-species-back-to-the-burbs-69631">environmental</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-environmentally-just-city-works-best-for-all-in-the-end-53803">equity</a> outcomes.</p>
<p>Providing adequate green space within our urban areas is therefore paramount. We need to preserve, enhance and promote existing green spaces and create new spaces.</p>
<p>Various political frameworks underscore the need for these spaces in our cities. For example, the <a href="https://habitat3.org/">New Urban Agenda</a> calls for an increase in safe, inclusive, accessible, green and quality public spaces. The <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg11">2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development</a> pledges to:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… provide universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces, in particular, for women and children, older persons and persons with disabilities.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170155/original/file-20170519-12242-wm8nk3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170155/original/file-20170519-12242-wm8nk3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170155/original/file-20170519-12242-wm8nk3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170155/original/file-20170519-12242-wm8nk3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170155/original/file-20170519-12242-wm8nk3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170155/original/file-20170519-12242-wm8nk3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170155/original/file-20170519-12242-wm8nk3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rapid growth in cities like Brisbane increases the pressure on existing urban green spaces.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Moving toward action</h2>
<p>The WHO <a href="http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/urban-health/publications/2017/urban-green-space-interventions-and-health-a-review-of-impacts-and-effectiveness.-full-report-2017">report</a> carried out a systematic review of the published evidence on green-space interventions. The review found a variety of intervention types have strong evidence for delivering a range of health, social and environmental outcomes.</p>
<p>These intervention types range from smaller green spaces, such as street trees and community gardens, to larger, more interlinked spaces, such as parks and greenways. This signals the need to think beyond the traditional urban park when considering how to meet the demand for green space among growing urban populations.</p>
<p>Another finding of the review was that urban green-space interventions seem to be most effective when a physical improvement of the space is coupled with social engagement.</p>
<p>This highlights the importance of understanding the intervention’s target audience. Sufficient time and resources must be devoted to engaging with this audience. This should happen both during the design and implementation phases and when the intervention is completed – and promoted.</p>
<h2>Learning from others</h2>
<p>The WHO report compiled case studies of urban green-space interventions from across Europe, and documented the common lessons from these. </p>
<p>This unearthed a range of findings. For example, fostering multidisciplinary and cross-sectoral collaborations during planning, implementation and evaluation is a key factor in creating a successful green space.</p>
<p>Another key finding was the importance of understanding that urban green-space interventions are long-term investments. They therefore need to be integrated within local development strategies and frameworks – such as urban masterplans, transport policies and sustainability and biodiversity strategies.</p>
<p>An example of an urban green-space intervention that showcases good practice, and which features as a case study in the WHO report, is the <a href="http://www.connswatergreenway.co.uk/">Connswater Community Greenway</a> in Northern Ireland. This project adopted a bottom-up approach and emphasised community engagement. A full-time community support officer was employed. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170146/original/file-20170519-12260-1bc1c2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170146/original/file-20170519-12260-1bc1c2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170146/original/file-20170519-12260-1bc1c2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170146/original/file-20170519-12260-1bc1c2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170146/original/file-20170519-12260-1bc1c2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170146/original/file-20170519-12260-1bc1c2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170146/original/file-20170519-12260-1bc1c2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Social engagement is an integral part of the Connswater Community Greenway intervention.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Connswater Community Greenway</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Having public engagement embedded from the start ensured the local community’s needs were well understood. The intervention’s design was responding to these identified needs. </p>
<p>Coupling this local understanding with the latest thinking on good practice led to an evidence-based design that was fit-for-purpose in the local context.</p>
<p>The project was also understood to be a long-term investment. A 40-year management and maintenance plan for the greenway was developed from the outset. </p>
<p>The WHO report represents an important step forward. As worrying trends in mental ill-health, obesity, social isolation, health inequalities and environmental degradation grow globally, there is a pressing need to implement equitable solutions – and green space has a key role to play in this. </p>
<p>Urban green-space interventions can deliver health, social and environmental benefits for all population groups – particularly among lower socioeconomic status groups. There are very few – if any – other public health interventions that can achieve all of this.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Cleary received funding from Healthy Land and Water and Griffith University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Hunter receives funding from research councils in the UK. They have not funded this work.</span></em></p>Urban green spaces are most effective at delivering their full range of health, social and environmental benefits when physical improvement of the space is coupled with social engagement.Anne Cleary, Nature and Health PhD Candidate, Griffith UniversityRuth Hunter, Lecturer, School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/718722017-03-02T00:34:10Z2017-03-02T00:34:10ZHome prices tell us the value the public puts on green spaces<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157269/original/image-20170217-4254-1r9uxbq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Apartments near the greenbelt in Vienna are more expensive than otherwise similar apartments in that city.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://maxpixel.freegreatpicture.com/Prater-Black-And-White-City-Austria-Vienna-Trees-443796">Max Pixel</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Homes near green amenities are more desirable and more expensive because residents are willing to pay higher prices to gain the many <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/green-space-5295">benefits of green spaces</a>. Our <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00168-015-0657-1">research</a> has confirmed, for instance, that apartments near to the greenbelt in Vienna, Austria, are more expensive compared to otherwise similar apartments in that city.</p>
<p>Similar findings have been reported for <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-013-9664-9">cities in England</a>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cjag.12040/full">Ontario</a> in Canada, and the South Korean capital, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275116303997">Seoul</a>.</p>
<p>Green spaces have well-known environmental benefits. Green neighbourhoods also have social benefits – such as <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/00139160121973124">less aggression and violence</a>, and <a href="http://js.sagamorepub.com/jpra/article/view/1709">fewer incidents of youth crimes and domestic violence</a> – and health benefits, including <a href="http://www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/FChealth10-2final.pdf/%24FILE/FChealth10-2final.pdf">reduced risk</a> of cardiovascular disease, certain cancers and certain types of diabetes.</p>
<p>However, Australia’s growing cities face a shortage of urban parks. Often, the provision of parks is seen only as planning compliance or an accessory.</p>
<p>There <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/developers-shouldnt-take-public-green-space-for-granted-20170202-gu426y.html">have been calls</a> for developers and councils to make adequate contributions toward improving and maintaining existing parks, rather than just leveraging the benefit for financial gain with new development projects.</p>
<p>However, the unparalleled population growth in our cities and increasing inner-city density mean we will need not only to protect existing green spaces, but also to plan new, better-quality green amenities.</p>
<h2>What higher prices near green amenities mean</h2>
<p>Our study in Vienna found the price of a constant-quality (taking into account other differences) apartment drops by 0.13–0.26% with every 1% increase in distance from the greenbelt. This suggests that proximity to the greenbelt is a significant location-related predictor of Viennese apartment prices.</p>
<p>If there is higher demand for this type of amenity and a lack of supply, prices of houses located close to greenbelts will go up. And, if green amenities are provided in areas accessible to low- and middle-income households, the social and health benefits can be promoted across cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157270/original/image-20170217-4243-1vmg3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157270/original/image-20170217-4243-1vmg3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157270/original/image-20170217-4243-1vmg3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157270/original/image-20170217-4243-1vmg3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157270/original/image-20170217-4243-1vmg3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157270/original/image-20170217-4243-1vmg3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157270/original/image-20170217-4243-1vmg3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157270/original/image-20170217-4243-1vmg3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
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</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2017/01/28/greenbelt-forcing-up-home-prices-in-gta-critics">Some argue</a> that saving the greenbelts results in higher house prices, leads to satellite cities and creates negative consequences such as increased car-dependence. Lost economic profit due to restricted development is also a concern.</p>
<p>To ease these pressures, <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-britain-build-on-its-green-spaces-to-solve-the-housing-crisis-72522">“unproductive” greenbelt land</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/greenbelt-myth-is-the-driving-force-behind-housing-crisis-17802">privately owned greenbelt land with intensive farming</a> could be exempted from this protection.</p>
<h2>A history of failed planning attempts</h2>
<p>Greenbelts are a special type of open space consisting of natural, agricultural or largely undeveloped land around urban areas. These areas typically outline the edge of the urban fringe and are known as “urban growth boundaries” in such cases. </p>
<p>Greenbelts are an outcome of the containment policy; they limit the physical expansion of the urbanised area and protect a compact urban form. They can also be an outcome of a policy intended to preserve green spaces for environmental and recreation purposes. </p>
<p>Green wedges are similar to greenbelts but may run through an urban area rather than around it. Urban parks are different: they may have diverse features like gardens, playgrounds, running trails and walking paths, and are spread across a city.</p>
<p>The idea of a greenbelt for Sydney was formally proposed <a href="http://dictionaryofsydney.org/entry/county_of_cumberland_planning_scheme">as early as 1948</a>. This became an example of the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07293682.1992.9657556">failure of planning for greenbelts</a> due to lack of support by state government agencies, property owners and developers. </p>
<p>The federal government’s refusal to provide funding due to unexpected immigration numbers ultimately led to the project’s demise. Most of Sydney’s inner-area greenbelt was eventually used for urban expansion.</p>
<p>In Melbourne, green wedges remained an established part of planning until the early 1990s. Since the liberalisation of the proposed restrictions on urban uses in <a href="http://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/planning/plans-and-policies/planning-for-melbourne/melbournes-strategic-planning-history/melbourne-2030-planning-for-sustainable-growth">Melbourne 2030</a>, new residential, tourist and commercial developments are continuing in and beyond the greenbelt. </p>
<p>By 2010, urban growth boundaries in Melbourne’s north and west had moved. Consecutive governments have regarded open space as <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08111140309954">commercially expendable</a> and as a free input to public and private projects.</p>
<p>Brisbane has introduced urban growth boundaries and reinforced the protection of non-urban areas bordering the city through strong regulatory planning controls. Current debates about the greenbelt in Brisbane show the challenging nature of managing conflicting interests. </p>
<p>There is widespread support for preserving the greenbelt between <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/push-to-stop-urban-sprawl-north-of-brisbane/news-story/397b90c6e493a979fe52d73e71035c60">Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast</a>, but an increasing level of approval for developments within the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2016/s4453359.htm">Brisbane to Gold Coast</a> greenbelt.</p>
<h2>Which way ahead?</h2>
<p>Cities are growing fast and the current supply of urban parks is not sufficient. So, governments need to take radical steps to protect existing greenbelts. </p>
<p>Greenbelts generate large-scale environmental services <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204603000938">compared to their smaller counterparts</a> (like urban parks). It will be a point of no return once the greenbelts are sacrificed to development.</p>
<p>In a new world where high-density development is widely endorsed, a bit of nature in the city fringe seems like a sensible policy. A stronger greenbelt policy can only come with political leadership – and cities such as <a href="http://www.grand-paris.jll.fr/en/grand-paris-project/">Paris</a> are bravely putting in greenbelts. Australian cities should follow these examples.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shanaka Herath has received funding from AHURI, the ARC, City of Sydney Council and the Austrian Research Promotion Agency.</span></em></p>Australia’s growing cities face a shortage of urban parks. Often, the provision of parks is seen only as planning compliance or an accessory.Shanaka Herath, Vice-Chancellor’s Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/250422014-04-02T10:30:41Z2014-04-02T10:30:41ZGreen belt scaremongering obscures a housing shortage that is truly frightening<p>We all know we have a crisis of housing supply and affordability. Over the past four years we have built on average 110,000 homes a year in England, less than the 150,000 homes built 110 years ago in 1904.</p>
<p>Against this sorry state of affairs appears the Campaign to Protect Rural England’s report entitled <a href="http://www.cpre.org.uk/media-centre/latest-news-releases/item/3568-planning-reforms-putting-rural-england-under-siege">Community Control or Countryside Chaos?</a>, purporting to reveal the shocking effects of the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-planning-policy-framework--2">National Planning Policy Framework</a> two years after its introduction.</p>
<p>Like a 17th century tract on how to detect witches, the report’s authors warn us to beware the rapacious developers laying waste the countryside. Examples include a case study of 11 “villages under siege” – stories compiled by <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8092876/Journal-of-the-witchfinder-general-opened-up.html">local witchfinders</a> – and an account of 58 planning appeals, of which about a third (19) were refused (a not unusual amount) but 39 were allowed. This – which if all were built would total only 8,705 houses – is presented as clear evidence of a conspiracy to concrete over our sacred turf.</p>
<p>Another claim, from a study of <a href="http://www.planninghelp.org.uk/improve-where-you-live/shape-your-local-area/local-plans/what-the-local-plan-contains">Local Plans</a>, is that they contain “proposals for more than 700,000” houses built on open countryside. The evidence for this – a survey put together by local CPRE membership groups – reveals an altogether less encouraging picture. Less encouraging, that is, if one hopes ever to build in coming years an even passable number of houses in places where people want and need to live if they are to have access to jobs.</p>
<h2>Claims lead up a garden path</h2>
<p>The survey makes no distinction between <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/greenpolitics/planning/9708387/Interactive-map-Englands-green-belt.html">green belt</a> (designated development-protected areas around cities designed to contain them) and greenfield (any land not yet built on). This might be sensible given that so much of greenbelt land is used for intensive agriculture, which provides no environmental benefits or amenity value at all, not least since there is virtually no public access.</p>
<p>However the survey of local plans, many still pending approval, looks at potential sites identified for the next 16 years to 2030. If we were very successful we might aspire to build double our current rate, an average of 200,000 houses a year to 2030. In 2009 the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit <a href="http://www.woburnsandsanddistrictsociety.org/documents/NHPAU%20need%20for%20more%20housing%20report%20July%2009.pdf">estimated</a> that we needed to build about 260,000 a year if we hoped even to restore housing affordability to the levels of 2000, so our aspirational and wholly unlikely target of 200,000 homes a year for 16 years – 3.2m homes – would not be enough.</p>
<p>If just 700,000 of those 3.2m were on greenfield land, as the CPRE report suggests, that would imply almost 80% were on brownfield sites. That would not only substantially exceed the now-dropped national target of 60%, it would also be neither feasible nor desirable. One aspect of brownfield sites, apart from the additional cost to develop them, is that they tend not to be where the jobs are. According to the Department for Communities and Local Government’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-house-building">housebuilding tables</a>, twice as many houses have been built in declining, post-industrial Barnsley and Doncaster than in Oxford and Cambridge where there is housing demand and jobs.</p>
<p>So the proposed modest <a href="https://www.cambridge.gov.uk/draft-local-plan-2014">expansion of Cambridge</a> into greenfield and perhaps even a corner of its green belt is a positive. Since 74% of the Cambridge green belt is used for intensive farming, these plans would represent a substantial improvement in biodiversity, economic efficiency, and in equity. People who previously had been priced out of the Cambridge housing markets and unable to access the jobs there may be able to live and work there.</p>
<h2>A manufactured problem</h2>
<p>The real problem is how febrile imaginings are turned into frightening falsehoods. The CPRE report brims with photographs of bucolic villages bearing captions such as “Developers are being allowed to build on greenfield sites”, or of an excavator in an anonymous site captioned “Development pressure is growing on the edge of many villages” (note the weasel word “many”).</p>
<p>There is an illustration of a beautiful section of the <a href="http://www.southwestcoastpath.com/">Devon coastal path</a> below a story that builder Persimmon is “calling for” 257 houses “on a greenfield site on the edge of Sidmouth” (so, not the site depicted) and “the village of Feniton has been targeted by speculators seeking housing developments”. Again, and in each case, the area presented, beautiful and deserving of protection, is under no threat at all.</p>
<p>A close reading of the survey from which the report reaches its total of 700,000 houses proposed for greenfield/green belt sites over the next 16 years shows it comes with all sorts of caveats. “Proposal of 20,230 houses met many objections”; “full numbers not available”; “local reports – no numbers specified”; “no allocations at present”. But in each such case a figure – 20,230, 9,100, whatever – is inserted.</p>
<p>Thus even the very low total of 700,000 houses over 16 years, or 43,750 a year, is not documented as a set of proposals. It is essentially a scarenumber. In fact for a 16-year period it seems not worryingly large, but in fact too small to be credible. As is well known only a small fraction of proposed or rumoured houses are ever built, and even if every one of them was, it would still represent only a tiny inroad into our housing shortfall.</p>
<p>Looking at what has been actually built since 1969 (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-house-building">table 209</a>) is depressing. Between 1969-1989 we built 4,302,270 houses in England, but between 1994-2012 it was only 2,687,040, fewer by more than 1.6m. In order to restore housing supply and affordability, according to the NHPAU analysis, would require 4,940,000 houses in a 19-year period, 2,252,960 more than were built between 1994-2012. So we have a building deficit of between 1.6-2.3m houses to make up even before we start to cater for future growth in demand.</p>
<h2>The real lie of the land</h2>
<p>Some facts, then, rather than alarmist rumours: <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/planning-applications-in-england-october-to-december-2013">according to DCLG</a>, planning applications for the last quarter of 2013 were close to the lowest since 2003, only about two thirds of the average between 2003 and the financial crisis in 2008. Approvals were not quite so dire, but still only at about 70% of 2003-2005 levels.</p>
<p>The numbers of housebuilding starts are even less encouraging, given the housing shortfall. In successive booms we have managed to build ever fewer houses : 287,310 in 1969/70, 219,950 in 1988/89, and 183,360 in 2005/06. In the most recent data for 2012/13 it was only 107,820, below even the level of the post crisis trough.</p>
<p>The real scandal is not the houses it is rumoured we might be planning on greenfield sites, but the actual number we are failing to build in the here and now – and, it would appear, in the foreseeable future, unless adequate land can be freed up to tackle the housing crisis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25042/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cheshire is a researcher at the Spatial Economics Research Centre, London School of Economics.</span></em></p>We all know we have a crisis of housing supply and affordability. Over the past four years we have built on average 110,000 homes a year in England, less than the 150,000 homes built 110 years ago in 1904…Paul Cheshire, Professor Emeritus of Economic Geography, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/178022013-09-09T05:40:00Z2013-09-09T05:40:00ZGreenbelt myth is the driving force behind housing crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30876/original/njj89q5h-1378462250.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Beautiful – but most greenbelt is on private land.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Barry Batchelor/PA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What a strange place the UK is - when the most important thing Britons spend money on becomes even less affordable, it’s received as good news. Because that is what “<a href="https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=confidence+returns+to+the+housing+market">confidence returns to the housing market</a>” really means. Young people will have to wait even longer to get any house at all, never mind a decent house with a bit of garden. Yet further house price inflation is always sold as good economic news. When it comes to houses and planning this is just one manifestation of the disconnect between reality and perception.</p>
<p>From one point of view – old people like me who have paid off our mortgages – rising house prices may seem good news, although I could only profit from the extortionate capital gains I have “earned” over 40 years by moving somewhere else (I don’t want to). Relative to other prices, house prices have gone up five-fold since 1955. In less than 20 years the price of houses has doubled relative to incomes; since 1997 lower quartile house prices have increased 80% relative to lower quartile earnings – even despite the crash of 2007-09.</p>
<p>There is a <a href="http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp382.pdf">housing crisis in England</a>, writ large in London, and it is a crisis of supply. On average over the past four years fewer market houses have been built than at any time since <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/229698/LiveTable244.xls">World War II</a> - even as far back as the Edwardian era of 1910. It is not that there is not the space. Contrary to popular perception (a survey by economist Kate Barker for her <a href="http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20120919132719/http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/154265.pdf">2006 report</a> on land use planning showed that most people think 50% of England is built over) less than 10% of England is developed. And of what is developed much less than half is “covered by concrete”. Parks and gardens cover more land than houses in towns and cities. Yet land is rationed and cities strangled with <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/greenpolitics/planning/9708387/Interactive-map-Englands-green-belt.html">greenbelts</a>.</p>
<p>Planners (and newspapers) assume demand for housing is driven by the numbers of households, but analysis shows that this has surprisingly little impact on demand. What has really increased the demand for houses is <a href="http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publications/download/sercpp004.pdf">rising incomes</a>: as people get richer, they try to buy more space and bigger gardens – the supply of which is exactly what greenbelts restrict.</p>
<p>As proposed by the original visionaries of town planning – most notably <a href="http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/273428/Sir-Ebenezer-Howard">Ebenezer Howard</a> – greenbelts would be an extensive ring of parkland surrounding towns in which citizens could walk their dogs, stroll with their children and exchange civilised gossip in the shade of handsome trees. What they have turned into is a combination of sacred cow and juggernaut: unstoppable in the damage they do to the housing market and beyond criticism in the popular media. They cover half again as much land as all towns and cities put together – about 15% of the surface of England - and have become a peculiarly English form of exclusionary zoning to keep unwashed urbanites corralled in their cities.</p>
<p>Of course parts of the greenbelts are real environmental and amenity treasures, such as the beautiful bits of rolling Hertfordshire, the <a href="http://www.chilternsaonb.org/">Chilterns</a> or the <a href="http://www.naturalengland.org.uk/ourwork/conservation/designations/aonb/kentdowns.aspx">North Downs</a>. Or rather, the beautiful bits to which there is public access. Such areas really need to be preserved against development. But almost all greenbelt land is privately owned, so the only access is if there are viable public rights of way.</p>
<p>Most privately owned Greenbelt land, however, is intensively farmed with limited rights of access and has no amenity value at all. <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/33594/">Recent studies</a> have shown that its value is captured only by those who own houses within it, and that intensively farmed land has a negative environmental value. Apart from its value for producing food (and much greater value for dodging inheritance tax) the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hidden-value-of-nature-revealed-in-groundbreaking-study">UK National Ecosystem Assessment</a> in 2011 found that intensively farmed land generates more environmental costs than benefits.</p>
<p>Yet whenever there is some public debate about <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/making-the-planning-system-work-more-efficiently-and-effectively">reforming</a> the planning system or building a few desperately needed houses on Greenbelt land, the bits we see on TV belong in some romanticised English Tourist Board poster. They are not representative of the reality of most greenbelt land.</p>
<p>So rather than building on school playing fields (can’t be done in my borough – they’ve all been built on already) or brownfield land such as on the <a href="http://www.english-heritage.org.uk/professional/research/landscapes-and-areas/archaeological-field-survey-and-investigation/hoo-peninsula/">Hoo Peninsula</a>, where the <a href="http://spatial-economics.blogspot.fr/2013/04/to-kill-nightingale-and-not-build-houses.html">largest concentration of Nightingales</a> in the British Isles survive, there should be selective building on the least attractive and lowest amenity parts of greenbelts. Not only are they close to cities where people want to live but only a tiny fraction of their vast extent would solve the crisis of housing, housing land and housing affordability for generations to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17802/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cheshire is a researcher at the Spatial Economics Research Centre, London School of Economics.</span></em></p>What a strange place the UK is - when the most important thing Britons spend money on becomes even less affordable, it’s received as good news. Because that is what “confidence returns to the housing market…Paul Cheshire, Professor Emeritus of Economic Geography, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.