tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/major-league-baseball-16517/articlesMajor League Baseball – The Conversation2024-03-28T12:51:38Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2263792024-03-28T12:51:38Z2024-03-28T12:51:38ZFor over a century, baseball’s scouts have been the backbone of America’s pastime – do they have a future?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584862/original/file-20240327-28-o25sx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=952%2C15%2C4129%2C2834&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Texas Rangers scout Brian Williams takes notes at Roberto Clemente Stadium in Carolina, Puerto Rico.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">H. James Gilmore and Tracy Halcomb</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former MLB executive <a href="https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/gillick-pat">Pat Gillick</a> won three World Series titles and served as general manager of four baseball teams from the 1970s to 2000s. </p>
<p>But when we interviewed him for our documentary “<a href="https://filmfreeway.com/FieldingDreamsACelebrationofBaseballScouts183">Fielding Dreams: A Celebration of Baseball Scouts</a>,” he deflected praise.</p>
<p>“I wouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame if it wasn’t for the people in scouting,” he said. “Those are the people that deserve all the credit, not me.”</p>
<p>Even though they scour the world for talent, often working on year-to-year contracts and spending weeks away from their families, there are no scouts in the <a href="https://baseballhall.org/">National Baseball Hall of Fame</a>.</p>
<p>Their recent run of tough luck has also gone largely unnoticed. The profession has been under siege on a number of fronts, whether it’s facing competition and dismissal from analytics advocates, or experiencing <a href="https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/09/04/red-sox-lay-off-nine-employees-from-scouting-player-development-staffs/">mass</a> <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/scouting-industry-endures-most-brutal-offseason-in-recent-memory/">layoffs</a> during the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<h2>A draft demands an army of evaluators</h2>
<p>In the first half of the 20th century, scouting was a free-for-all. </p>
<p>Team owners willing to spend the money could send scouts to go out and sign whomever they wanted, with contracts often written out by hand and players signing on the spot. When Iowa teen phenom Bob Feller was signed by Cleveland Indians scout <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/cy-slapnicka/">Cy Slapnicka</a> in 1935, Slapnicka simply took out a pen, wrote out a contract and had Feller and his father sign it, because Feller was underage.</p>
<p>The terms of the contract? <a href="https://case.edu/ech/articles/f/feller-robert">One dollar and an autographed ball</a>.</p>
<p>Major League Baseball <a href="https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-history-and-future-of-the-amateur-draft/">held its first draft in 1965</a>, in part to help level the playing field between wealthier teams, like the New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals, and everybody else.</p>
<p>The advent of the draft made scouts all the more important: Each team now had <a href="https://www.baseball-almanac.com/draft/baseball-draft.php?yr=1965">a massive pool of players</a> to interview, evaluate and rank.</p>
<p>The draft only includes U.S. amateur players. International players are not subject to the draft, so some teams have built training facilities in countries like <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-promise-and-peril-of-the-dominican-baseball-pipeline-113242">the Dominican Republic</a> and <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-opens-new-academy-in-mexico-c215291168">Mexico</a>, where their international scouts find and sign promising young players. </p>
<h2>Strength in crunching the numbers?</h2>
<p>But since the turn of the century, some journalists and executives have questioned the value of scouts.</p>
<p>In 2003, author Michael Lewis published “<a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393324815">Moneyball</a>,” in which he documented the success of the 2002 Oakland Athletics and the team’s <a href="https://sabr.org/sabermetrics">embrace of sabermetrics</a>, the statistical analysis of baseball data.</p>
<p>The Athletics were consistently winning with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, and other team owners took notice. </p>
<p>Could data analytics exploit inefficiencies and produce better results than scouts? Could teams save money by trimming the ranks of old-school professionals and all of the human bias that they brought to evaluating talent?</p>
<p>The embrace of sabermetrics changed who got drafted. With raw data becoming increasingly important, college players – with a longer track record of statistics – became more attractive than high school athletes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Middle-aged man sitting on a metal bench with his legs crossed as he tugs on the brim of his baseball cap." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane ushered in an era that emphasized the use of analytics to evaluate talent and construct rosters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ATHLETICSSPRINGTRAINING/0fab9501d4e4da11af9f0014c2589dfb/photo?Query=billy%20beane&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=116&currentItemNo=5">AP Photo/Eric Risberg</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The shift to data-informed decision-making has had some unintended consequences. </p>
<p>In order for high school players to get recognized in today’s environment, <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2022/05/19/catholic-youth-sports-little-league-club-baseball-243016">they turn to travel teams</a>, an expensive option that allows a player to participate in more games and accumulate more experience, more footage of their play and more exposure. </p>
<p>Players from lower-income families often can’t afford to participate – and that includes young Black athletes, <a href="https://www.povertycenter.columbia.edu/news-internal/2022/black-white-child-poverty-gap">who are disproportionately more likely to grow up in poverty</a>. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baseball-diversity-study-black-players-5d0d1766536f1385ee673c68be55d89a">A recent study</a> found that Black athletes represented just 6.2% of MLB players on 2023 opening day rosters, down from 18% in 1991. </p>
<p>As retired Black utility player <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collilo01.shtml">Lou Collier</a> told us: “A kid like me, today, never would have had an opportunity. … If I wasn’t able to afford any of these events, you never would have heard of Lou Collier. But back when I was coming up, the scouts found the Lou Colliers.” </p>
<h2>‘Moneyball’ or makeup?</h2>
<p>Scouts will also tell you that analytics is nothing new.</p>
<p>“We evaluated the player,” says former Atlanta Braves scouting director <a href="https://www.mlb.com/royals/team/front-office/roy-clark">Roy Clark</a>. “And when our scouts said, ‘We think this guy can play in the big leagues,’ the next thing we did is we gathered all the information we could – analytics. But then we emphasized makeup.”</p>
<p>It is a grasp of this concept – “makeup,” or a player’s character, drive and grit – that scouts say differentiates their work from data-driven evaluations.</p>
<p>“It comes down to the people who have a really good head on their shoulders,” says Matt O’Brien, a scout for the Toronto Blue Jays. </p>
<p>And the scouts will tell you that there is both on-field and off-field makeup. </p>
<p>“You’ve got to talk to his school counselor, you’ve got to talk to his coach, you’ve got to talk to his teammates, you’ve got to try and talk to other students,” explains Gillick. “Is he a good baseball player, and is he a good human being?” </p>
<p>This personalized approach, one that focuses on a player’s heart and mind, has kept scouting relevant. Even with the rise of analytics, the number of MLB scouts had stayed remarkably consistent into the 21st century. It seemed as if the fear generated by “Moneyball” was unfounded. </p>
<p>That all changed in 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Black and white photo of smiling man seated at a table. Behind him is another man standing next to a board with sheets of paper affixed to it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hall of Fame executive Pat Gillick during the 1983 MLB draft, when he served as vice president of baseball operations for the Toronto Blue Jays. Behind him is scout Bob Prentice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pat-gillick-right-blue-jays-vice-president-of-baseball-news-photo/502315001?adppopup=true">Jeff Goode/Toronto Star via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The costs of COVID-19</h2>
<p>COVID-19 didn’t just shorten the 2020 baseball season, winnowing it down from 162 games to 60. It also shrank baseball’s scouting ranks. </p>
<p>USA Today reported that <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2021/03/11/baseball-scouts-return-covid-pandemic/4645174001/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatodaycomsports-topstories">about 20% of scouts were laid off in 2020</a>. Many of them weren’t hired back. </p>
<p>“It was just the most uneasy feeling,” recalled MLB Scouting Bureau’s Christie Wood, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/29/sports/baseball/a-harder-look-at-female-scouts-shows-more-in-the-job-than-thought.html">one of the few female scouts in the game</a>.</p>
<p>According to the magazine Baseball America, by 2021 <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/scouting-industry-endures-most-brutal-offseason-in-recent-memory/">seven teams had reduced their scouting staff by double digits</a>. </p>
<p>The Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers cut 10 scouts apiece. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants had 13 fewer on their payrolls. The Chicago Cubs were down 20, while the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners each reduced their scouting ranks by 23. </p>
<p>At the beginning of the 2019 season, teams employed 1,909 scouts across their amateur, professional and international departments. By 2021, that number was down to 1,756. And most of the scouts that were laid off were older, more experienced scouts making higher salaries.</p>
<p>In June 2023, 17 former scouts <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/37893641/ex-scouts-file-age-discrimination-lawsuit-major-league-baseball">sued MLB for age discrimination</a>. They claimed that the league and its teams acted intentionally to prevent the employment of older scouts after the pandemic.</p>
<h2>A big win for the scouts</h2>
<p>The state of scouting today is a mixed bag.</p>
<p>Some teams seem to be prioritizing analytics. But other organizations – the Pittsburgh Pirates, Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers – have actually added scouts to their payrolls since 2019.</p>
<p>The Rangers organization opened their doors to our documentary crew over the past four years, allowing us into the inner sanctum. We were able to see, firsthand, the organization’s emphasis on scouting, and witness the relationships the team’s scouts built with prospects and their families.</p>
<p>When the Rangers won the World Series in 2023, baseball scouts around the league rejoiced: The team’s success confirmed that an emphasis on personal touch and people could still pay off. </p>
<p>“I’m just proud of all the scouts that are here and who have worked so hard,” Texas Rangers scout Demond Smith told us during one playoff game. “At the end of the day, it’s baseball. It’s Little League from the beginning, and then you are dreaming. And here we are.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226379/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even with teams’ embrace of analytics, the number of scouts employed by MLB teams had stayed remarkably consistent. That all changed with the COVID-19 pandemic.H. James Gilmore, Visiting Filmmaker, Flagler CollegeTracy Halcomb, Professor of Communication, Flagler CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2262082024-03-19T23:53:14Z2024-03-19T23:53:14ZJoey Votto’s handwritten apology to baseball fans shows the pen is mightier than the bat<p>The importance of cursive handwriting is <a href="https://www.nea.org/nea-today/all-news-articles/great-cursive-writing-debate">a hot topic of debate</a> within the world of educators. Now, a popular athlete has inadvertently become a champion of those who believe in the power of handwritten letters.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml">Joey Votto is one of the best baseball players</a> to ever come from Canada. He has had an all-star career with the Cincinnati Reds for the last 17 years, but was <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/joey-votto-cincinatti-reds-declined-option-nov-4-1.7018860">without a job</a> heading into spring training this year.</p>
<p>Canadian baseball fans were overjoyed with the announcement earlier this month that Votto, a native of Toronto, had <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/joey-votto-officially-signed-by-blue-jays/">signed a minor-league contract</a> with the Toronto Blue Jays. </p>
<p>But the signing also caused some Canadian fans to <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/joey-votto-dont-care-almost-canadian-baseball/">remember remarks he made in 2018</a> when he said: “I don’t care almost at all about Canadian baseball.” </p>
<h2>Three-page letter</h2>
<p>Votto chose to address those six-year-old remarks in an unusual way: <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/blue-jays/blue-jays-joey-votto-posts-heartfelt-handwritten-apology-for-criticizing-canadian-baseball/article_4463f3c0-e591-11ee-ad18-d7512a7f7574.html#tncms-source=login">he posted a three-page handwritten letter</a> on X (formerly Twitter) to ask for forgiveness. </p>
<p>Fans’ comments about the letter focused on two things: most people appreciated the apology, but just as many were struck by the fact that Votto chose to make the apology in cursive handwriting. One commenter even said the letter was nice, but “no one under 30” will be able to read it — a reference to the fact that many students are no longer taught cursive writing.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1769878548502679973"}"></div></p>
<p>Within just 24 hours, the note received widespread attention from Canadian media as well as Votto’s enormous following on X/Twitter, garnering some 1.8 million views. </p>
<p>Votto’s reflections afford opportunities for personal understanding, growth and healing — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1192/apt.11.5.338">especially because they were handwritten</a>.</p>
<p>In retrospect, Votto acknowledged, his ill-thought comments were an embarrassment and a shame for him personally, and a disappointment to his mother. In the letter, Votto seeks to assuage the emotional burden by taking responsibility for his comments and asks forgiveness from those he thoughtlessly hurt.</p>
<p>“Oof, wow, I cringe and am ashamed as I re-write my words,” Votto wrote in the letter, referring to the original comments that got him into hot water.</p>
<h2>Handwriting makes it authentic</h2>
<p>The fact that Votto chose to write the letter in cursive makes the apology that much more authentic: had he typed it out, readers could have assumed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/12/style/notes-app-celebrity-statements.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-share">that someone else or a computer program chose the words</a>.</p>
<p>But the handwritten note clearly shows Votto’s emotional commitment to the apology — including some grammatical errors that a computer would have corrected. (There’s been some speculation that Votto wrote the letter on a “<a href="https://remarkable.com/store/remarkable-2">paper tablet</a>,” but there’s no doubt it’s his writing.) </p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-cursive-handwriting-needs-to-make-a-school-comeback-121645">Why cursive handwriting needs to make a school
comeback</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For those who take an interest in handwriting and its connection to making meaning on the page, it is noteworthy that Votto’s handwriting is fully cursive.</p>
<p>It shows many connections between letters and, secondly, it’s characterized by many twists, loops, backward turns — the type of script that was likely favoured in 40-year-old Votto’s young years in grade school in Toronto.</p>
<p>Though more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/19411243.2012.744651">cumbersome for many young learners</a>, such features of handwriting help to determine the authenticity of the writing: every hand has its unique musculature and grip, as well as style in making the ligatures or joins between letters, the loops and tails.</p>
<p>When compared to another sample of an author’s handwriting, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/forensic-experts-are-surprisingly-good-at-telling-whether-two-writing-samples-match/">the authenticity of cursive writing can be determined</a> — an important dimension for writing of historical importance.</p>
<h2>A personal connection to the words</h2>
<p>In Votto’s case, his handwritten letter shows sincerity of expression and a personal connection to the words. </p>
<p>The ability to show his true feelings is possible by developing a script that is fluent and automatic, thus making precious cognitive resources available for generating the intended message.</p>
<p>This means that handwriting must be over-learned and <a href="https://www.edubloxsa.co.za/automaticity-important-reading-learning">brought under unconscious control</a>. In establishing neuronal connections, fluid movement is possible that, in turn, permits access to <em>le mot juste</em>: the right word at the right time for the right purpose. </p>
<p>As a researcher who has advocated for the return of cursive handwriting to classroom teaching, I believe it’s important to note that handwriting creates the neurocircuitry to the brain for making meaning, storing, retrieving and remembering. This is known as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.156">embodied cognition</a>. </p>
<p>Our hands have a profound effect on how our <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/thinking-about-kids/201407/step-away-the-keyboard-how-our-hands-affect-our-brains">brain makes sense of the world and how we think</a>. Readings of student brains suggest writing by hand <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/writing-by-hand-may-increase-brain-connectivity-rcna135880">may increase brain connectivity more than typing</a>.</p>
<p>Handwriting affords a sense of agency and empowerment, as witnessed by the cursive writing of Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai’s note about how “one pen, one child, one teacher can change the world.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A letter in cursive writing" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A handwritten note by Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Votto is on a Cinderella-like quest to finish his career with his hometown baseball team. Whether he makes it or not won’t likely be known for a few weeks.</p>
<p>But regardless of whether he ever plays for the Blue Jays, Canadian baseball fans have clearly appreciated that Votto took the time to write a three-page letter in his own hand to right a past wrong.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hetty Roessingh receives funding from SSHRC; Werklund School of Education, University of Calgary </span></em></p>The power of a handwritten letter became clear when baseball player Joey Votto penned an apology to Canadian fans. Votto also reopened the debate about whether kids should learn cursive writing.Hetty Roessingh, Professor, Werklund School of Education, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195642023-12-11T22:48:10Z2023-12-11T22:48:10ZWhat the Blue Jays can learn from missing out on the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/what-the-blue-jays-can-learn-from-missing-out-on-the-shohei-ohtani-sweepstakes" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>This past weekend, Toronto Blue Jays fans experienced a roller coaster of emotions when it seemed like Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani was going to sign with Toronto, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10161849/blue-jays-fans-heartbroken-ohtani-signs-dodgers/">only to be heartbroken</a> after he signed a US$700 million, 10-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays wanted Ohtani for a number of reasons. Ohtani is a rare breed in baseball — not only is he one of the best pitchers in MLB, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/player/shohei-ohtani-660271">with an ERA of 3.14 in 2023</a>, but he’s also a prolific hitter. His unique skill set has <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/shohei-ohtani-babe-ruth-1.6921241">drawn comparisons with baseball legend Babe Ruth</a>.</p>
<p>His global fan base also translates into economic benefits for any team he plays for. According to a study by a Japanese economist, Ohtani’s broad economic impact in 2022 when he played for the Los Angeles Angels <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/how-much-revenue-does-shohei-ohtani-actually-generate.html">was around US$337 million</a>.</p>
<p>Now that the dust has settled, Blue Jays fans and analysts alike must reflect on the lessons learned from this situation. </p>
<h2>Don’t let price bulldoze other interests</h2>
<p>Blue Jays fans could be forgiven for thinking that when Blue Jays’ owner Rogers entered into meaningful negotiations with Ohtani it was just a matter of time. <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/as-ohtani-fallout-continues-clarity-on-blue-jays-final-offer-emerges/">According to a number of sources close to the negotiation</a>, the Blue Jays’ best offer was similar to the one offered by the Dodgers.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://hbr.org/2001/04/six-habits-of-merely-effective-negotiators">as Harvard Business School professor, James K. Sebenius argues</a>, a common error in negotiations is thinking that price is the most important, or only, issue to be resolved. </p>
<p>In the case of Ohtani, the US$700 million price tag was clearly a factor in his decision. But now it seems obvious that other interests, including club location and the competitiveness of the team were also important considerations.</p>
<h2>The best alternative to a negotiated agreement</h2>
<p>This may not be much consolation, but the Blue Jays were merely one of 29 losers in the Ohtani sweepstakes. Arguably, <a href="https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2023/12/11/los-angeles-angels-future-without-shohei-ohtani.aspx">the L.A. Angels organization and their fans</a>, having just lost Ohtani to the rival L.A. Dodgers are as — or, perhaps more — <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/angels/news/angels-fans-react-to-shohei-ohtani-signing-with-dodgers-ml0802">heartbroken this week</a> than the Jays are.</p>
<p>The lesson for the Angels fans is to understand <a href="https://www.pon.harvard.edu/shop/getting-to-yes-negotiating-agreement-without-giving-in/">the best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA) concept</a>. In short, the BATNA is whatever course of action either side of a negotiation will take in the event that no deal is reached between them.</p>
<p>For example, if you were to enter into a salary negotiation with your current employer with a job offer from a rival company in hand, your BATNA — in the event your salary negotiation is unsuccessful — is to take the rival company’s offer.</p>
<p>In the Ohtani sweepstakes, the <a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/mlb/news/shohei-ohtani-trade-rumors-angels-two-way-star-playoffs/og9dbsoqbrgv5i5lj3ipcyud">L.A. Angels appear to have underestimated Ohtani’s BATNA</a>, perhaps believing their positive relationship, West Coast location and willingness to spend whatever it took to make the playoffs in 2023 would be enough.</p>
<h2>Interests versus positions</h2>
<p>The Toronto Blue Jays’ and L.A. Angels’ willingness to spend whatever it took didn’t matter. Not because the Dodgers were willing to spend more, but because whatever the compensation figure ultimately was, it would only be acceptable to Ohtani if it satisfied his interests.</p>
<p>It can be challenging to distinguish between interests and positions when so much money is involved in a signing such as this. In short, interests are the underlying motivations that inform positions, while positions are specific demands.</p>
<p>For example, you might ask for $100,000 at your next salary negotiation — that is a position (or, in other words, a specific demand). An example of an interest might be the flexibility the position affords, which may be more enticing than a job that doesn’t meet those interests.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays and L.A. Angels seem to have misinterpreted Ohtani’s interests and proceeded as if compensation would be enough. </p>
<p>In reality, it appears Ohtani’s interests (based on the contract and its deferred payment structure) were mostly based on sustained excellence and anticipated success over these next 10 years. Ohtani immediately bolsters an already competitive team and has offered the Dodgers an opportunity to become even more competitive by virtue of his deferred compensation. </p>
<h2>Failing to correct skewed vision</h2>
<p>The Toronto Blue Jays and L.A. Angels seem to have fallen into the common trap of believing their own narrative while negotiating.</p>
<p>The L.A. Angels believed Ohtani would re-sign with them because he valued familiarity, the relationship with the team and the West Coast location.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/armstrong-shohei-ohtani-baseball-blue-jays-1.7052383">Blue Jays believed he would sign with them</a> because of the unique marketing potential being with Canada’s team and the compensation only Rogers could offer, in part because Rogers’ NHL rights were coming to an end.</p>
<p>It’s possible some of those factors did come into play, and that the Blue Jays and Angels executives and fans were not completely wrong to think they had a chance. But clearly, they thought what they had to offer would be enough. It wasn’t.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>There will be ramifications from the Blue Jays’ pursuit of Ohtani. Fans’ expectations will be raised if and when future free agents become available on the open market — notably, <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-vladimir-guerrero-jr-discussed-long-term-deal-but-didnt-find-common-ground/">Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette</a> who will become free agents in 2025.</p>
<p>As we get closer to their pending free agency and negotiations, the Blue Jays would be well served to understand those players’ interests and make sure they can meet them in full — or, risk losing out again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Blue Jays would be well served to heed the lessons learned from losing out on signing Shohei Ohtani to make sure they don’t risk losing out on any more top players.Ryan Clutterbuck, Assistant Professor in Sport Management, Brock UniversityMichael Van Bussel, Assistant Professor in Sport Management, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2034782023-04-13T20:47:26Z2023-04-13T20:47:26ZNew MLB rules are consistent with baseball’s past — not an assault on tradition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520885/original/file-20230413-26-ikpth7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3896%2C2599&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For the first time ever, baseball players will be governed by a clock this season. It's one of several new rule changes aimed at making the game more appealing.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/new-mlb-rules-are-consistent-with-baseball-s-past-—-not-an-assault-on-tradition" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The final line of the beloved baseball anthem <em>Take Me Out to the Ball Game</em> proclaims “For it’s one, two, three strikes you’re out at the old ball game.” While it’s still three strikes and you’re out, the old ball game has some <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2023-rule-changes-pitch-timer-larger-bases-shifts">new rules for the 2023 Major League Baseball (MLB) season</a>.</p>
<p>Following a pilot run in the minor leagues, several rule changes have been introduced to accelerate the pace of MLB games. These changes have been spear-headed by MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2017/apr/18/rob-manfred-baseball-commissioner-mlb">who has been a modernizing agent</a> for a game steeped in tradition. </p>
<p>Manfred is determined to improve baseball’s watchability and to create more offensive dynamism to appeal to a younger generation of fans.</p>
<p>MLB’s product has stagnated under an analytical revolution that has resulted in smart statistical approaches to baseball, but has dulled the spontaneity and creativity that enchanted fans for decades.</p>
<h2>What’s new?</h2>
<p>The biggest change is the introduction of a pitch timer. The absence of a timing device used to be a point of distinction for baseball compared to other major league sports, but that distinction is no more.</p>
<p>Similar to a shot clock in basketball or a play clock in football, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/pitch-timer">MLB now has a timer governing the maximum time intervals between pitches</a> ranging from 15 to 30 seconds, depending on the situation. </p>
<p>Batters are also beholden to the clock, and can’t remove themselves from the batter’s box (although they do get one timeout per at-bat). Failure to comply will result in an automatic strike or ball call, depending on if the pitcher or batter is found in violation. </p>
<p>Pitchers are now limited by how often they can check on baserunners. They are now only allowed two disengagements — either a pickoff attempt or a step-off — per plate appearance. This will allow baserunners to <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlbs-year-of-the-stolen-base-why-players-think-new-rules-should-result-in-more-steals-in-2023/">attempt more steals</a>, a practice the MLB wants to encourage since <a href="https://batflipsandnerds.com/2018/11/03/analytics-and-its-effects-on-the-mlb-the-stolen-base/">stolen base attempts are exciting for viewers</a>.</p>
<p>To further incentivize base stealing, base sizes have been increased to 18 inches square from 15. This will allow runners to arrive at their destination a split second quicker. While this might not seem like a huge deal, <a href="https://projects.seattletimes.com/2017/mariners-preview/science/">every extra millisecond counts</a> in baseball.</p>
<p>Lastly, the infield shift — a defensive move that shifts all the infielders to the side of the diamond a hitter usually hits to — has also been banned as a result of the new rules.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three baseball players stand half-crouched between first and third base, presumably as they wait for the hitter to hit the ball." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Minnesota Twins infielders stand in a defensive infield shift during a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles in May 2022 in Baltimore.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Tommy Gilligan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/ted-williams-faced-defensive-shifts-in-1940s-c191605204">Managers have used the infield shift for decades</a> as a defensive strategy. The shift is consistent with traditional baseball logic that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/berniepleskoff/2019/11/19/baseball-by-the-numbers/">uses percentages and statistics to a team’s advantage</a>.</p>
<p>The infield shift was employed sparingly for the most part, but the practice has seen a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mlb-rules-changes-infield-shift-a66b8e9de1ef6b30a0b19fe4fb0dcb94">dramatic uptake in recent years</a>. Its overuse was deemed an impediment to offensive play and now, with the new rules in place, there must be two infielders on either side of second base.</p>
<h2>Reactions to the changes</h2>
<p>Baseball fans <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/04/07/baseball-trump-georgia-voters/">tend to err on the side of conservatism</a> and usually don’t embrace change. The new rules seem to interfere with baseball’s laissez-faire past. </p>
<p>Players and managers criticized Manfred’s agenda as they prepared for the 2023 season, with some calling it “<a href="https://theathletic.com/4194101/2023/02/14/mlb-rule-changes-spring-training/">the shit show</a>” in spring training. </p>
<p>But others see the rule changes as <a href="https://frontofficesports.com/how-rule-changes-could-save-major-league-baseballs-tv-future/">much-needed medicine for a sport that has lost its way</a>. Game times have <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml">ballooned in the 21st century</a> and <a href="https://www.nj.com/yankees/2021/05/mlb-strikes-out-don-mattingly-reggie-jackson-nolan-ryan-turned-off-by-unwatchable-games.html">former players have been critical</a> of trends that have diminished baseball’s entertainment value.</p>
<p>Whatever the stance, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mlb-pitch-clock-time-of-game-5a7ed3d0a51d7dfea7ba3d1c28f2dbb6">the new rules have already resulted in</a> significant changes: the average game time has decreased by 30 minutes and the number of stolen bases have doubled. More time is needed to see if these changes will connect with a younger audience.</p>
<h2>Change is the only constant</h2>
<p>There’s an almost mythical belief that baseball doesn’t change over time. In the nostalgia-dripping film, <em>Field of Dreams</em>, Terence Mann (James Earl Jones) says to Ray Kinsella (Kevin Costner): “The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball…This field, this game, it’s a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was good, and it could be again.”</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A 15-inch-square base used in 2022 is on the left, while an 18-inch-square base being used in 2023 is on the right" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Another new rule change concerns the size of bases. The new, larger base is seen with the older, smaller base — which officials hope will result in more base stealing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Morry Gash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Baseball is the same now as it has always been, as the saying goes. <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/3/29/18286389/best-players-ever-woba-adam-ottavino-babe-ruth">Baseball stars from yesteryear</a> would fare well in the modern iteration of the game because of this. When this assumption is challenged, accusations of blasphemy result. </p>
<p>No one knows this better than relief pitcher Adam Ottavino, who speculated that <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25506993/free-agent-pitcher-adam-ottavino-says-whiff-babe-ruth">he’d have terrific success against the legendary Babe Ruth</a> if the latter played today instead of the 1920s. </p>
<p>Criticism of Ottavino was rooted in an underlying assumption that the game hasn’t changed. But baseball has changed, and so have the rules. <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/designated-hitter-rule">The designated hitter rule,</a> which allows another player to bat in place of the pitcher, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/02/07/after-s-year-pitcher-mlb-lowered-mound-now-league-could-do-it-again/">lowered pitching mounds</a> and <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-to-alter-baseballs-for-2021">changes to the ball itself</a> serve as reminders of that.</p>
<p>It’s even more striking if we consider the norms of 19th century play. It was a very different game back then. Could you imagine New York Mets pitcher Justin Verlander, for example, purposely drilling a baserunner with a baseball to tag him out? Once upon a time, that’s how outs were made. It was called “soaking.” </p>
<p>Or what about a scenario where a slugger like Aaron Judge lets countless balls pass without penalty until he receives a pitch to his liking? Since there used to be no strike zone, batters only swung at pitches they found appealing. It sounds outlandish, but baseball used to be played this way. </p>
<h2>What’s next for baseball?</h2>
<p>The future provides little comfort to the change-adverse; baseball purists are already wringing their hands with what’s to come. Notably, <a href="https://theconversation.com/robo-umps-are-coming-to-major-league-baseball-and-the-game-will-never-be-the-same-132640">robot umpires are being tested at the minor league level</a> in hopes of making umpiring more accurate. It’s not a question of <em>if</em>, but <em>when</em> that technology will be introduced at the major league level — <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/30/23189572/robot-umpires-major-league-baseball-2024">perhaps as soon as next season</a>.</p>
<p>It’s true that the baseball of today bears little resemblance to its original, sacrosanct version. By looking back at the history of the sport, and all the rule changes that have taken place over the years, we can be reminded of baseball’s constant evolution.</p>
<p>MLB’s willingness to adapt could be what the league needs to maintain its relevance. Interest in baseball has been <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/07/sport/mlb-opening-day-baseball-popularity-spt-intl/index.html">declining over the years</a> and as a major sports league, the MLB is responsible for keeping the game exciting for viewers. Only time will tell if the new changes will succeed in bringing baseball back to the masses.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Greenham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Following a pilot run in the minor leagues, several rule changes have been introduced to the MLB 2023 season to accelerate the pace of the games.Craig Greenham, Associate professor, Department of Kinesiology, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032262023-04-07T12:13:16Z2023-04-07T12:13:16ZMLB home run counts are rising – and global warming is playing a role<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519633/original/file-20230405-20-qoakrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C3000%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Another homer off the bat of Aaron Judge.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/1afab4defa934a1db3455fc35f5fe688">AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Home runs are exhilarating – those lofting moments when everyone looks skyward, baseball players and fans alike, anxiously awaiting the outcome: run or out, win or loss, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KIAT6saGZA">elation or despair</a>.</p>
<p>Over the past several Major League Baseball seasons, home run numbers have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkeNJqqKX5I">climbed dramatically</a>, including Aaron Judge’s <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/aaron-judge-breaks-roger-maris-home-run-record-with-62">record-breaking 62 homers</a> for the New York Yankees in 2022.</p>
<p>Baseball analysts have pointed to many different factors for this surge, from changes in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/sports/baseball/mlb-change-baseball-rawlings.html">baseball construction</a> to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/mlb-launch-angles-story/">advances in game analytics</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0235.1">Our study</a>, published April 7, 2023, offers solid evidence for another cause – rising global temperatures.</p>
<h2>What we learned from 100,000 baseball games</h2>
<p>The physics tell a simple and compelling story: Warm air is less dense than cool air. As air heats up and molecules move faster, the air expands, leaving more space between molecules. As a result, a batted ball should fly farther on a warmer day than it would on a cooler day owing to less air resistance.</p>
<p>This simple physical link has prompted <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-more-baseball-home-runs/">speculation</a> from the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/tim-mccarver-may-not-be-crazy-the-home-run-and-global-warming-connection/2012/04/30/gIQA1hI1rT_blog.html">media</a> about the connection between climate change and home runs. </p>
<p>But while scientists like <a href="http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/nathan-papers.html">Alan Nathan</a> have shown that balls <a href="http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/Effect%20of%20Temperature%20on%20Home%20Run%20Production.pdf">go farther in higher temperatures</a>, no formal scientific investigation had been performed to prove that global warming is helping fuel baseball’s home run spree – until now.</p>
<p><iframe id="T7XOY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/T7XOY/9/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jpm35hwAAAAJ&hl=en">In</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=QrmlrE0AAAAJ&hl=en">our</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0235.1">study</a>, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in collaboration with anthropologists (and baseball fans) <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZGD7vx8AAAAJ&hl=en">Nathaniel J. Dominy</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jkr2M6kAAAAJ&hl=en">Jeremy M. DeSilva</a>, we used data from over 100,000 Major League Baseball games and 200,000 individual batted balls, alongside observed game day temperatures, to show that warming temperatures have, in fact, increased the number of home runs.</p>
<p>Based on data between 1962 – when <a href="https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/mantle-mickey">Mickey Mantle was American League MVP</a> and <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/history/season/_/year/1962">Willie Mays topped the home run chart</a> – and 2019, we found that a game that is 10 degrees Celsius (18 degree Fahrenheit) warmer than the average game would have nearly 20% more home runs than average. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A ball player raises one finger in the air as he runs the bases, with bright stadium lights behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The San Diego Padres’ Ha-Seong Kim celebrates a game-ending home run on April 3, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/1afab4defa934a1db3455fc35f5fe688">AP Photo/Gregory Bull</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So, what about everything else that drives home runs? </p>
<p>We can’t run a controlled experiment where we replay each pitch cast since the 1960s and vary only the temperature to assess its effect on home runs. But we can use the trove of data on home runs and temperature to statistically estimate its effect. Whether a game is hotter or cooler than average is not likely to be related to other factors driving home runs, like <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/">ball construction</a>, <a href="https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/rjmorgan/mba211/Steroids%20and%20Major%20League%20Baseball.pdf">steroid abuse</a>, game analytics or <a href="https://sabr.org/journal/article/high-altitude-offense-an-empirical-examination-of-the-relationship-between-runs-scored-and-stadium-elevation/">elevation differences among ballparks</a>. This fact allows us to statistically isolate the <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures">role of temperature</a>. </p>
<p>To verify our game-level model, we use data from <a href="https://technology.mlblogs.com/introducing-statcast-2023-high-frame-rate-bat-and-biomechanics-tracking-3844890264a6">high-speed cameras</a> that ballparks have had since 2015. The cameras provide the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68V-MTm7nUk">launch angle</a> and launch velocity of each hit – 200,000 of them were included in our study. This means we can compare a ball coming off a bat at the same angle and velocity on a warm day and a cool day – near-perfect experimental conditions. </p>
<p>The high-speed camera model nearly exactly replicated the effect of temperature on home runs that we estimated with the game-level data. With this observed relationship between game day temperatures and home runs in hand, we were able to use experiments from climate models to estimate how many home runs have occurred because of climate change so far. </p>
<p>We found that more than 500 home runs since 2010 could be directly linked to reduced air densities driven by human-caused global warming.</p>
<h2>More homers in a warming future</h2>
<p>We can use the same approach to make estimates about home runs in the future. </p>
<p>For example, if the world continues to pump out greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario/">at a high rate</a>, the temperature will continue to climb, and that could soon yield several hundred additional home runs per year. It could add up to several thousand home runs cumulatively over the 21st century.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Increase in average number of home runs per year for each U.S. major league ballpark with every 1-degree Celsius (1.8 F) increase in global average temperature. Domed parks control the temperature on the field, so warming is less of a factor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/980110">Christopher W. Callahan</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Teams have ways to counter the heat. They can shift day games to be played at night, for example, or build domes over ballparks. In Denver, where the air is less dense because of its higher elevation, the Rockies <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/13057/baseball-proguestus-home-runs-and-humidors-is-there-a-connection/">started storing game balls in a humidor</a> in 2002 to make them “<a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/13057/baseball-proguestus-home-runs-and-humidors-is-there-a-connection/a">mushier</a>,” increasing their weight and giving pitchers more of a sporting chance. </p>
<h2>It’s not all high-fives</h2>
<p>More home runs might sound exciting, but that boost in homers is also a visible sign of the much larger problems facing sports and people worldwide as the planet warms.</p>
<p><iframe id="A7Tnn" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A7Tnn/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Rising temperatures will <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">threaten the health and safety</a> of baseball players, fans in ballparks and people around the world. <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-climate-solutions-exist-but-humanity-has-to-break-from-the-status-quo-and-embrace-innovation-202134">Without serious efforts</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, rising temperatures will transform <a href="https://theconversation.com/transformational-change-is-coming-to-how-people-live-on-earth-un-climate-adaptation-report-warns-which-path-will-humanity-choose-177604">nearly all aspects of society</a>, from cultural touchstones like baseball to basic human well-being.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203226/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scientists analyzed 100,000 baseball games, from the days of Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays to Aaron Judge. Here’s what they learned about the climate’s growing role.Christopher W. Callahan, Ph.D. Student in Climate Science, Dartmouth CollegeJustin S. Mankin, Assistant Professor of Geography, Dartmouth CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1889682022-09-27T12:28:13Z2022-09-27T12:28:13ZTwo wrongs trying to make a right – makeup calls are common for MLB umpires, financial analysts and probably you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486637/original/file-20220926-15-iabcgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=144%2C0%2C5449%2C3783&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">After a mistake, people may try to correct the error with an intentional wrong judgment, this time in favor of the previously wronged party. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/nicky-lopez-of-the-kansas-city-royals-slides-into-second-news-photo/1392435258">Ed Zurga/Getty Images Sport via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Major League Baseball has been trying something new in recent seasons: <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/replay-review">instant replay for umpire calls</a>. After replay review, some erroneous calls on the field can be overturned. Baseball in its own fashion is acknowledging what sports fans have always known – officials make mistakes.</p>
<p>The most notable manifestation of this tendency is the all-too-common bad call and its companion, the makeup call. When an umpire makes a bad call, the only way they could presumably restore balance to the game is to make an additional bad call, but this time in favor of the wronged team. For example, an umpire may incorrectly call a “strike” on a pitch that was clearly outside the strike zone, only to make up for the error later by calling a “ball” on a pitch that clearly caught the edge of the strike zone.</p>
<p>Instant replay isn’t perfect and isn’t used in every situation, which leaves room for umpires to make bad calls and subsequent makeup calls. Beyond sports, there are lots of other ambiguous situations in everyday life where people try to make up for errors in judgment with makeup calls meant to restore the balance.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UP9FYAUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">We are organizational</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iv8X37AAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scientists</a> who are interested in how makeup calls operate. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=-TnT6tYAAAAJ">With</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ATbRISoAAAAJ&hl=en">our</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=M8oboDQAAAAJ">colleagues</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=orWHs5EAAAAJ">we</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=zh-TW&user=qRDqxYkAAAAJ">explored</a> this question in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0001026">research we published in 2022</a> in the Journal of Applied Psychology.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Umpire gesturing while calling a strike" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What happens after an ump makes a bad call?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/umpire-calling-strike-royalty-free-image/79248503">Score by Aflo/Getty Images Plus via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Setting things right once mistakes are made</h2>
<p>Examining MLB playoff data from 2008-2014, we found that bad calls increased the likelihood of makeup calls. That is, when an umpire made an objectively erroneous call, it increased the chances of subsequent calls in favor of the team that was harmed.</p>
<p>For instance, when bad calls were made against pitchers, umpires were then more likely to call strikes. We also found that umpires became less likely to call strikes on a batter if they’d made bad calls against the batter’s teammates.</p>
<p>But as the stakes increased – meaning the call had greater importance to the overall outcome of the game – makeup calls became less likely. Makeup calls seemed to be aimed at righting prior wrongs and correcting for some level of unfairness, but not so much that they would have an impact on which team actually won or lost. </p>
<h2>Makeup calls in the psychology lab</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0001026">To investigate whether this tendency</a> toward the makeup call extends beyond Major League Baseball, we invited undergraduate volunteers into our lab. We paired them off and gave them a set of jars each containing random objects like bolts, screws and so on.</p>
<p>One student was the decision-maker and guessed if the number of objects in the jar was greater or less than 300. The second student was the judge and evaluated the other student’s decision based on their own estimation. The decision-maker received raffle tickets each time the judge sided with them, and judges received raffle tickets when they were correct in their evaluation of the decision-maker.</p>
<p>When judges received feedback that they had erred in their evaluation, they were more likely to make subsequent calls in favor of the decision-makers. Just as we saw in the big leagues, as the stakes increased – in this case, the odds of winning the raffle got better with each ticket awarded – makeup calls decreased. However, as the number of people affected by the bad call rose, so did the likelihood of makeup calls.</p>
<p>We also identified the critical role that guilt plays in makeup calls. Those who made a bad call reported feeling more guilty in a survey and then sought to rectify their mistake by issuing a makeup call. Hence those who experience more guilt were more likely to issue make-up calls.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Person with head in hand looking at laptop with downward trending graph" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Financial analysts influence the decisions people make about buying and selling stocks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/pensive-and-sad-man-watching-the-graph-crash-royalty-free-image/1389538724">Ricardo Mendoza Garbayo/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Bad calls with bigger stakes</h2>
<p>As when we focused on MLB umpires, our lab study relied on a game-ified context. To determine if what we saw translated to the real world, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0001026">examined the judgments of financial analysts</a>. We looked at their recommendations about which companies’ stocks, in their judgment, should be bought or sold. And we looked at their earnings forecasts that predict how they think individual stocks will perform.</p>
<p>When a firm performs worse than the analysts expected, or missed their earning expectation, the firm’s stock declines. In this way, analysts who are overly optimistic about a firm and provide an inflated earnings forecast may unintentionally harm a firm.</p>
<p>In response to an extreme earnings miss – meaning the firm performance was 50% or more worse than the analyst’s expectation – analysts can either devalue the company, resulting in a downgrade, or double down on their optimism and provide an upgrade. Given the firm’s extreme underperformance, providing an upgrade is likely an illogical choice – but it may make up for the damage done to the stock. Thus analyst forecasts and recommendations provide an optimal way for our research to capture makeup calls. </p>
<p>We found that when an analyst’s forecast significantly overestimated a company’s earnings, analysts were 73% more likely to then upgrade their recommendation. In other words, when a firm performed much worse than the analyst expected, they were more likely to recommend buying the stock rather than selling it, even though a downgrade makes more sense in this scenario. Analysts were more likely to issue a makeup call by upgrading the stock, issuing a buy recommendation that was too optimistic for a stock that underperformed expectations by at least 50%.</p>
<h2>Not something people want to talk about</h2>
<p>Finally, we wanted to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0001026">assess people’s everyday experiences of makeup calls</a> on the job. How aware are people of making bad calls and makeup calls, and how do they feel about these decisions when they happen at work?</p>
<p>We asked managers to recall a time when they made a decision or a bad call. Far fewer people were willing to admit they’d ever made a bad call, even when explicitly asked, compared to those who were willing to say they’d made a decision. We weren’t surprised, since people generally prefer to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/22/smarter-living/why-its-so-hard-to-admit-youre-wrong.html">avoid admitting or discussing their mistakes</a>.</p>
<p>This aversion seems to have extended to makeup calls as well. Those who did admit to making a bad call were not more or less likely to admit that they’d ever made a makeup call, even if they acknowledged feeling guilty for their mistake.</p>
<p>Most of our studies suggest that people do often fall back on makeup calls after an error in judgment. However, people get a little squirrelly when asked about those experiences and tend not to own up to this kind of make-it-right action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188968/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Erroneous calls increase the chances of subsequent calls in favor of the person who was harmed. What drives this behavior, and do people even recognize they’re doing it?Steven J. Hyde, Assistant Professor of Management, Boise State UniversityMeghan Thornton-Lugo, Assistant Professor of Industrial/Organizational Psychology, University of AkronLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1624152021-06-15T12:25:22Z2021-06-15T12:25:22ZSticky baseballs: Explaining the physics of the latest scandal in Major League Baseball<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406219/original/file-20210614-126247-1yxj5ll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C39%2C2907%2C1916&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It used to be spit balls, but now sticky baseballs are giving pitchers an advantage.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Baseball.jpg#/media/File:Baseball.jpg">Tage Olsin</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cheating in baseball is as old as the game itself, and pitchers’ modifying the ball’s surface is part of that <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Neyer-James-Guide-to-Pitchers/Bill-James/9780743261586">long history</a>. Adding to the lore of cheating is a <a href="https://nypost.com/2021/06/09/questions-and-answers-surrounding-mlbs-sticky-stuff-problem/">new scandal</a> involving pitchers who may be applying sticky substances – what players refer to as “sticky stuff” – to baseballs.</p>
<p>Major League hitters are striking out this season <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-take-another-stab-at-unpacking-the-rising-strikeout-rate/">nearly one in every four times they step to the plate</a>, compared with one in six times in 2005. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=eHzYy_EAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">As a sports physicist</a> and longtime baseball fan, I’ve been intrigued by <a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2180019">news reports</a> that applying sticky substances to balls can make pitches spin faster. And if pitchers can throw their fastballs, curveballs and sliders with more spin than in previous years, their pitches will be tougher to hit. How does science explain all this?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman struggling to open a jar full of preserves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When you can’t get a jar open, increasing friction between your hand and the lid can help.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/the-lid-is-really-tight-royalty-free-image/175213030?adppopup=true">Steex/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sticky stuff increases friction and torque</h2>
<p>If you want to understand what all the sticky fuss is about, you need to know some friction basics.</p>
<p>You’ve surely tried to unscrew a lid from a stubborn jar. If there isn’t enough friction between your fingers and the lid, you may not be able to exert enough torque – the rotational analog of force – to get the lid to turn. One way to get more torque on the lid is to increase the frictional force. In my home, we keep a circular piece of rubber to increase friction and help open tough jars. </p>
<p>Pitchers want more friction between their fingers and the baseball, and they are supposedly using some interesting substances to accomplish this. According to a <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/04/sticky-stuff-is-the-new-steroids-daily-cover">recent Sports Illustrated article</a>, “pitchers have begun experimenting with drumstick resin and surfboard wax.” “They use Tyrus Sticky Grip, Firm Grip spray, Pelican Grip Dip stick and Spider Tack, a glue intended for use in World’s Strongest Man competitions and whose advertisements show someone using it to lift a cinder block with his palm.” That article noted one instance of a ball so sticky players could see fingerprints on it, and another story in which a ball could be stuck to a person’s open hand with his palm facing the ground. All of these sticky substances would increase friction and thus give pitchers a better grip on the ball.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A spinning cylinder with smoke helping to visualize the uneven air currents." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Topspin creates a wake of air that pushes a ball down, as seen in the image above where air is flowing right to left past the metal cylinder in the center that is spinning clockwise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Magnus-anim-canette.gif#/media/File:Magnus-anim-canette.gif">MatSouffNC858s/WkimediaCommons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>More spin makes pitches harder to hit</h2>
<p>Today’s sticky fingers are the latest attempts by players to gain an <a href="https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/MajorLeagueRules.pdf">unfair</a> <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/the-unwritten-rules-of-baseball">advantage</a>. But how does sticky stuff make a pitch harder to hit? It helps increase spin rate. </p>
<p>Unless a pitcher throws a knuckleball, which has very little spin, all baseballs are spinning at well over 1,000 revolutions per minute when they leave pitchers’ hands. That spin creates a force – let’s call it the spin force – that causes baseballs to move and curve in ways that can throw off hitters.</p>
<p>As air smashes into a moving baseball, it doesn’t wrap completely around the ball – it separates off the surface before reaching the back of the ball. Think of water flowing along the sides of a moving boat. The water doesn’t smoothly wrap around the back of the boat – there is a wake of turbulent water behind it. But when a rudder turns the boat, the wake moves off to one side. Newton’s third law says that if the boat pushes water in one direction, water has to push the boat in the opposite direction, causing the boat to turn.</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-corona-important">The Conversation’s most important coronavirus headlines, weekly in a science newsletter</a></em>]</p>
<p>The same idea applies to a spinning baseball. If the baseball is spinning, the wake of air behind the ball will be asymmetric. So the spin force pushes the ball in the opposite direction from which the wake of air is pushed.</p>
<p>Consider an overhand curveball. In this pitch, a Major League Baseball pitcher pulls down on the front of the ball when he releases it, generating topspin. A top-spinning curveball pushes air upward off the back of the ball, just like a wake coming off one side of a boat. Because the ball pushes the wake of air upward, the air’s force on a curveball is downward. Curveballs thus experience a push downward on their way to the plate, all thanks to the spin force.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A baseball player swinging and missing a pitch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The extra spin from sticky stuff could make a baseball move 2 inches more compared with pitches in previous years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/taylor-walls-of-the-tampa-bay-rays-swings-at-a-pitch-during-news-photo/1323047032?adppopup=true">Douglas P. DeFelice/Contributor via Getty Images Sport</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How effective is sticky stuff?</h2>
<p>Here is where the alleged cheating comes in. </p>
<p>As with pitchers in the past, a Major League pitcher today could put sticky stuff on his fingers in the locker room, stick some to his uniform or even get some from a teammate. The substances starring in the current scandal would help create more spin. A good pitcher can throw a curveball at 85 mph with a spin rate of 2,400 rpm with about 20 pounds of friction force between the pitcher’s fingers and the ball. <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/">Freely available pitch data</a> shows that some pitchers have increased their spin rate by about 400 rpm on curveballs compared with previous seasons. That’s a 17% increase in spin rate and requires a 17% increase – or an additional 3 pounds – of friction force coming from sticky substances.</p>
<p>For an overhand curveball, an extra 400 rpm of topspin can lead to more than 2 inches of additional vertical drop – which just happens to be the thickness of the sweet spot of a baseball bat. In other words, a Major League Baseball batter familiar with a pitcher’s curveball might swing where he thinks he’ll make great contact, except because the sticky stuff and extra spin the ball will cross the plate 2 inches lower than the batter expects. He’ll either miss the pitch or hit a weak grounder.</p>
<p>Strikeouts are happening at an <a href="https://calltothepen.com/2021/04/17/mlb-strikeouts-killing-game/">all-time high rate</a> and sticky stuff may be one of the culprits. Major League Baseball is already <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31596907/spider-tack-goo-cops-open-secret-answering-20-questions-mlb-foreign-substance-mess">contemplating</a> what to do about all the reports of sticky fingers. Umpires may soon periodically check pitchers during games. </p>
<p>But whatever the league decides, the cat-and-mouse game between players seeking enhanced performance and the league trying to catch them will continue, adding to the rich lore of cheating in baseball.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Eric Goff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pitchers in Major League Baseball have been striking out more batters than ever, and some people say it’s because they’re adding sticky stuff to the balls.John Eric Goff, Professor of Physics, University of LynchburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1572032021-04-25T14:09:07Z2021-04-25T14:09:07ZPandemic Moneyball: How COVID-19 has affected baseball odds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395141/original/file-20210414-15-clxu08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=56%2C7%2C4644%2C3122&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 2020 World Series featured two teams at opposite ends of the salary spectrum: the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays. The richer Dodgers were the winners.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 250px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/ad-auris/pandemic-moneyball--how-covid-19-has-affected-baseball-odds" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The ground-breaking 2004 book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/403233/moneyball-by-michael-lewis/9780393324815"><em>Moneyball</em> by Michael Lewis</a> exposed the use of advanced baseball statistics by the Oakland A’s and the team’s general manager, Billy Beane, to excel in the competitive Major League Baseball marketplace. The book resulted in the resurgence of the use of data analytics tools in MLB and then other sports.</p>
<p>I’m a baseball fan, but in my day job I research game theory as it’s applied to financial situations and data analytics. So I was curious to understand the lasting impact of the “Moneyball effect” on baseball. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2018.11.010">My research examined the “arms race” among MLB teams</a> and how they tried to gain a strategic advantage by using proprietary data tools.</p>
<p>The successful implementation of data analytics by the Oakland Athletics to find undervalued players explained why the team made it to the playoffs each year between 2000 and 2003, despite having one of the lowest payrolls in MLB.</p>
<p>Ironically, the loss of this strategic advantage by the A’s is related to the publication of <em>Moneyball</em> — which became a larger cultural phenomenon when <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/">a movie by the same name</a> (starring Brad Pitt as Billy Beane) was released in 2011.</p>
<h2>A tool used by all teams now</h2>
<p>Before the book was published in 2004, only five MLB teams had established an analytics department within their organizations. By 2017, all 30 teams were using advanced analytics to assess player performance.</p>
<p><a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/961412-mlb-power-rankings-all-30-mlb-teams-by-market-size">Small-market teams</a> like Oakland lost their competitive advantage as richer teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs added advanced analytics to their toolkits. </p>
<p>It’s one thing to be a Moneyball team; it’s another to be a Moneyball team with money. Not only can the richer large-market teams <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/trevor-bauers-102-million-deal-with-the-dodgers-is-unique-heres-why.html">go after the best players</a>, but they can also <a href="https://grantland.com/the-triangle/andrew-friedman-leaves-tampa-bay-rays-for-los-angeles-dodgers-impact/">poach key front office people</a> from the poorer teams.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Billy Beane talks to one of the Oakland Athletics baseball players" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oakland Athletics minority owner and executive vice-president Billy Beane, right, talks with players before a playoff baseball game in 2018. When Beane was general manager of the A’s in the late 1990s, he was the first baseball executive to embrace the use of advanced analytics to assess the value of baseball players.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Consequently, it’s not an accident the Dodgers have appeared in three of the last five World Series — including their win in 2020. The fact that their opponents last year, the small-market Tampa Bay Rays, even made it to the World Series is nothing short of a miracle.</p>
<h2>The ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’</h2>
<p>One of the problems with baseball’s asymmetric payrolls means teams can be divided into “haves” and “have nots” (with a few franchises falling into a middle group). And those “have nots” now have another issue to deal with: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on baseball revenue.</p>
<p>No spectators were allowed at MLB regular-season games last year and each team has taken <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/baseball-fans-return-for-2021-mlb-season-every-teams-opening-day-plan-for-in-person-attendance/">a different approach to fans in the stands</a> this season. But in most cases, teams will limit attendance to allow social distancing among the fans.</p>
<p>While all teams will see a loss of gate revenue because of the pandemic, poorer teams will suffer more. Richer MLB teams have <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/">other sources of income</a> and substantially larger financial resources, enabling them to weather the storm better than the “have nots.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pitcher Trevor Bauer is shown pitching in a game" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2020 World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers improved their pitching this year by signing one of the top free agents: Trevor Bauer’s three-year, $102-million deal makes him one of the the highest-paid players per-year in sports.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>MLB teams <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2020/12/22/mlb-teams-lost-1-billion-in-2020/?sh=4e038bf017d7">lost US$1 billion in 2020</a>, compared to a profit of $1.5 billion in 2019. <em>Forbes</em> magazine has estimated MLB’s total revenues dropped to $4 billion last year from $10.5 billion in 2019.</p>
<p>And the pandemic has also had an impact on a revenue-sharing program that was first established by MLB in 1996 to lessen the economic inequalities between “have” and “have not” teams. The program was suspended last year and is <a href="https://theathletic.com/2430585/2021/03/08/mlb-is-loaning-teams-money-to-fund-2021-revenue-sharing-but-repayment-is-debated/">only happening in a limited capacity this year</a>. </p>
<h2>Dodgers top total payroll</h2>
<p>To better understand the gap between the “haves” and the “have nots,” let’s look at the <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/">2021 MLB payrolls</a>. The Dodgers are at the top with a total payroll of almost US$250 million while Cleveland is at the bottom with at $49.7 million.</p>
<p>The teams that won the World Series in the past five years (the Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, Nationals and Dodgers) are all in the top third of total payroll in 2021. And eight out of the 10 teams that participated in the past five World Series are from the top third of total payroll in 2021 — the only two exceptions are Cleveland in 2016 and the Rays in 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph that shows the salary levels of all 30 Major League Baseball teams" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This chart shows the World Series champion L.A. Dodgers have a payroll almost twice the league average of US$130 million.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We already know small-market teams like Oakland no longer have a competitive advantage when it comes to using Moneyball analytics. So do they have any hope of winning it all during another season of pandemic baseball?</p>
<h2>What is the key to winning?</h2>
<p>To under the relationship between team salaries and the odds of winning the World Series, I did an analysis with <a href="https://www.infoworld.com/article/3394399/machine-learning-algorithms-explained.html">machine learning algorithms</a>. These type of algorithms create models that train themselves and learn from their mistakes in an iterative manner and can predict outcomes based on available data.</p>
<p>The analysis showed that a key metric is the payroll of a team’s <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/26-man-roster">26-man active roster</a> — which is different than total payroll because it excludes salaries of injured, suspended or those no longer playing for the team but still being paid.</p>
<p>My model suggests that teams with an active-roster payroll of less than $50 million — specifically Cleveland ($49 million), Pittsburgh ($40.7 million), Baltimore ($24 million), Tampa Bay ($40 million), Texas ($47 million) and Detroit ($48 million) — have almost no statistical chance of winning the World Series.</p>
<p>Those with a payroll between $50 million and $150 million (teams like Miami, Arizona, Seattle, Oakland, Milwaukee, Colorado, Toronto, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Boston, White Sox, St. Louis, and Atlanta) have about a five per cent probability of winning it all.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graphic that shows the plot of an algorithm that predicts the impact of team salaries and the odds of winning the World Series" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author used machine learning algorithms to analyze how team salaries impact a team’s odds of winning the World Series. The conclusion: Richer teams have better probability of winning, but there’s not much difference between teams with a roster salary of US$150 million and those that are over $200 million.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Teams that are around the $150-million level are still at the same probability of five per cent. This includes San Francisco ($145 million), the Cubs ($145 million), Washington ($146 million) and Houston ($149 million).</p>
<h2>Money only goes so far</h2>
<p>But the model also suggests that once a team hits $150 million, the probability goes to 10 per cent and doesn’t go up even if salaries increase beyond that point.</p>
<p>This means the Dodgers, with a 26-man payroll of $211 million, are statistically no more likely to win the Series again this year than a team like the Mets with $152 million, San Diego with $155 million, Philadelphia with $160 million, the Yankees with $164 million and the Angels with $177 million.</p>
<p>It’s a tough time to be a small-market team in baseball. The Moneyball advantage is gone. COVID-19 has reduced revenue. And without a big payroll, it’s almost impossible to succeed. </p>
<p>What’s happening in baseball, it seems, is no different than what other business sectors are experiencing during the pandemic — the rich get richer and those less fortunate struggle to compete.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ramy Elitzur does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Twenty years ago, a few small-market Major League Baseball teams used advanced analytics as a secret weapon to compete with large-market teams. But the Moneyball effect is gone now.Ramy Elitzur, Associate Professor, Financial Analysis, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1586842021-04-12T12:26:22Z2021-04-12T12:26:22ZMLB’s decision to drop Atlanta highlights the economic power companies can wield over lawmakers – when they choose to<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394383/original/file-20210411-23-144w1vy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=226%2C40%2C3650%2C2139&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The logos may have been printed too soon.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BravesRaysSpringBaseball/6c97f19ba096459d8e8201c9ce22deee/photo?Query=atlanta%20AND%20braves&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=70594&currentItemNo=41">AP Photo/John Bazemore</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Major League Baseball knows how to exert leverage over local lawmakers. </p>
<p>Over 100 companies, including <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/business/delta-coca-cola-georgia-voting-law.html">Delta Air Lines and Coca-Cola</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/02/business/voting-restrictions-ceo-letter/index.html">reacted to Georgia’s new restrictive voting law</a> by publicly denouncing it. While <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/04/11/companies-voting-bills-states/">some executives are discussing doing more</a> – such as halting donations or delaying investments, MLB is among the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/12/business/will-smith-emancipation-georgia.html">few organizations</a> to go beyond words: It immediately said it was going to move the 2021 All-Star Game from Atlanta to Denver.</p>
<p>Both MLB’s decision to relocate the July 13 game and the many corporate press releases issued about the voting law drew a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/01/business/stock-market-today">swift rebuke from Republicans</a>, who vowed boycotts of baseball and the products these companies produce. The Senate minority leader even threatened retribution if companies didn’t stay out of politics – with <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mcconnell-warns-corporate-america-stay-out-politics-says-donations-are-n1263173">an exception for campaign contributions</a>.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=CvMhCIgAAAAJ&hl=en">corporate governance scholar</a>, I have studied how corporations <a href="https://scholarship.law.vanderbilt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1035&context=vlr">use their economic power to get what they want</a> from lawmakers. I believe Republicans’ angry reactions signal just how deeply concerned they are that other companies might follow MLB’s lead.</p>
<h2>The nature of corporate power</h2>
<p>To help understand why, consider this: MLB’s decision <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/03/us/mlb-all-star-game-relocation-lost-money-economic-impact/index.html">is estimated to cost</a> Georgia as much as US$100 million in lost economic activity. </p>
<p>Corporations understand that the jobs and tax revenue they can provide – or withhold – give them power at the negotiating table. Other <a href="https://www.georgia.org/international/investment">states are all competing</a> for the same investments. Tesla, for example, agreed to build a factory near Reno, Nevada, in 2014 in exchange for <a href="https://fortune.com/longform/inside-elon-musks-billion-dollar-gigafactory/">$1.4 billion</a> in state benefits after a bidding war. </p>
<p>National Football League teams have been <a href="https://www.latimes.com/sports/nfl/la-sp-la-leverage-city-20150107-story.html">especially ruthless</a> in their negotiations with cities and states and have demanded hefty taxpayer subsidies for new stadiums. By threatening to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/11/sports-stadiums-can-be-bad-cities/576334/">move to another city</a>, team owners can extract hundreds of millions of dollars in new benefits. </p>
<p>The dynamic is easy to understand. State lawmakers usually <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Corporate-American-Democracy-Automobile-Industry/dp/0521631734">cater to corporations</a> because they want to attract business investment and keep it. </p>
<p>When corporations leave, <a href="https://slate.com/business/2017/06/something-is-wrong-with-connecticut.html">they can cause property values to stagnate</a> and tax revenue to plunge – as happened to Hartford, Connecticut, a few years ago after several large insurance companies abandoned the city.</p>
<p>How corporations use their leverage is up to them. They can seek to feed their bottom lines or to advance social causes. Traditionally it’s the <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190215514.001.0001">former</a>. For example, many U.S. companies <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2020/01/03/how-corporate-lobbying-changed-the-2017-tax-overhaul/">lobbied for a $1 trillion corporate tax cut</a> in 2017. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-corporate-ceos-found-their-political-voice-83127">increasingly it’s the latter too</a>.</p>
<h2>A rise in corporate social activism</h2>
<p>In 2015, the threat of corporate boycotts caused then-Gov. Mike Pence to <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/indiana-republicans-were-warned-about-their-anti-gay-bill">support changing</a> an Indiana law that would otherwise have allowed <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/03/29/396131254/indiana-governor-lawmakers-to-clarify-anti-gay-law">anti-gay discrimination</a> in the name of religious freedom. </p>
<p>Something similar happened in 2016 when Georgia’s governor bowed to corporate pressure and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/03/28/georgia-governor-to-veto-religious-freedom-bill-criticized-as-anti-gay/">vetoed a bill</a> that would have legalized discrimination against same-sex couples on religious grounds.</p>
<p>And again in 2017, North Carolina <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/03/30/522009335/north-carolina-lawmakers-governor-announce-compromise-to-repeal-bathroom-bill">partially repealed</a> a law that targeted transgender people over concerns that boycotts – such as by PayPal, the NCAA and former Beatle Ringo Starr – <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/27/bathroom-bill-to-cost-north-carolina-376-billion.html">would cost the state $3.76 billion</a> over a dozen years. </p>
<p>Those boycotts, of course, did not <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/04/the-problem-with-boycotting-georgia.html">end efforts</a> to restrict LGBTQ rights at the state level, but they demonstrated that when corporations band together, they are capable of exerting enormous economic and political pressure to advance social causes. </p>
<p>And that possibility is likely on the minds of Georgia lawmakers following the MLB’s All-Star Game decision. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Rain falls onto Truist Park in Atlanta Georgia, where the Braves play baseball, as a tarp covers the infield" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394387/original/file-20210411-17-kj4t79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394387/original/file-20210411-17-kj4t79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394387/original/file-20210411-17-kj4t79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394387/original/file-20210411-17-kj4t79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394387/original/file-20210411-17-kj4t79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394387/original/file-20210411-17-kj4t79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394387/original/file-20210411-17-kj4t79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coca-Cola and Delta, their corporate logos seen here overlooking Truist Park in Atlanta, are major employers in Georgia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MarlinsBravesBaseball/3f0f083745064124b374c5608441b5dd/photo?Query=Truist%20AND%20Park&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=250&currentItemNo=17">AP Photo/John Bazemore</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Words and deeds</h2>
<p>Despite the apparent leverage companies yield, it’s not simple for most companies to just get up and leave.</p>
<p>For example, Delta – whose largest hub is in Atlanta – benefits from a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/georgia-voting-law-house-delta-tax-breaks/index.html">tax break</a> on jet fuel. And Coca-Cola’s <a href="https://www.coca-colacompany.com/company/history">ties to Georgia are deep and long-standing</a>, dating back to a soda fountain in Atlanta in 1886. Companies don’t sever such ties or give up generous tax breaks easily – and neither Delta nor Coke has even suggested that it might.</p>
<p>But if the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/04/01/983450176/based-on-a-lie-georgia-voting-law-faces-wave-of-corporate-backlash">many companies that publicly objected</a> to the law want to have an impact on policy – and see the law changed or repealed – money has to be at stake, as I learned in <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=3029506">my own research</a> on how North Carolina changed its 2015 law only after companies began boycotting the state. Delta and Coca-Cola employ <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2020/12/17/coca-cola-job-cuts-atlanta-restructuring.html">thousands of people</a> and generate <a href="https://news.delta.com/deltas-economic-impact-metro-atlanta-georgia">billions of dollars in economic activity</a> in the state. That’s serious leverage they could use if they felt the voting rights issue was important enough. </p>
<p>Words and press releases alone usually aren’t enough. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<h2>Making a difference</h2>
<p>Ultimately, this threat of lost business is what makes corporations a formidable adversary. The question, then, is what it would take for them to leave Georgia.</p>
<p>Without knowing MLB’s internal deliberations, I cannot say why the league dropped Atlanta with so little hesitation, but there are some likely possibilities. </p>
<p>First, just as a matter of timing, MLB may have been concerned about holding the All-Star game in the midst of a political controversy, drawing unfavorable attention, especially in light of its own <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/statement-from-major-league-baseball">recent commitment</a> to have zero tolerance when faced with racial injustice. <a href="https://www.mlb.com/diversity-and-inclusion/social-justice">MLB may have</a> also taken an opportunity to show solidarity with <a href="https://theplayersalliance.com/">its players</a>, given the <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Society/2020/1123/Athletes-have-taken-social-stands-before.-Why-this-time-is-different">high-profile advocacy for social causes</a> of many professional athletes. Research suggests that <a href="https://theconversation.com/corporate-activism-is-more-than-a-marketing-gimmick-141570">employee diversity</a> is an <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/business-and-politics/article/abs/why-do-corporations-engage-in-lgbt-rights-activism-lgbt-employee-groups-as-internal-pressure-groups/8A0D1F32974A1466B4384BE51DA4E318">important consideration</a> for corporations on matters of social justice. </p>
<p>Finally, just as a practical matter, moving the All-Star game may have offered MLB some public relations benefits at relatively low cost to itself.</p>
<p>And those same reasons are likely why other sports leagues – such as the NCAA in North Carolina and the NFL with the 2016 Georgia bill – are often out front on these types of social issues. Georgia should not count on any backlash subsiding soon; the NCAA withheld championship games from <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/ncaa/article/2015-07-10/ncaa-lifts-ban-holding-championships-south-carolina">South Carolina</a> for 15 years until the state removed the Confederate flag from the Statehouse grounds. </p>
<p>For now, MLB’s decision has not prompted the kind of mass corporate revolt that could force change. On April 12, Will Smith’s production company said <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/12/business/will-smith-emancipation-georgia.html">it was pulling its upcoming slavery-era drama, “Emancipation,”</a> out of Georgia because of the voting law. </p>
<p>But it’s unclear, in particular, whether any Georgia-based corporations will follow MLB’s lead by removing business operations from the state. The voting law that passed is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/25/us/politics/georgia-voting-law-republicans.html">actually less restrictive</a> than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/us/politics/churches-black-voters-georgia.html">earlier versions</a> of the bill, suggesting that criticism – <a href="https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/voting-rights-advocates-plan-economic-boycott-to-pressure-georgia-firms/XNVL4QSSRBCMNA5BR6Y6M2F2YU/">including from companies</a> – likely had some impact. Lawmakers may have made some changes precisely to avoid sparking a stronger corporate response. </p>
<p>But if companies like Delta and Coca-Cola really want to make a difference and use their leverage on this issue, they will need to go beyond words. Their actions would speak much louder. </p>
<p><em>Article updated on April 12 to add references to production of “Emancipation” being moved out of Georgia.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Means does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Usually, companies use this power to secure financial benefits for themselves, such as tax or regulation relief. But increasingly, they’re using it for social causes as well.Benjamin Means, Professor of Law, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1427932020-07-29T13:05:04Z2020-07-29T13:05:04ZThe business of sports resumes amid COVID-19, but at what cost?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349746/original/file-20200727-33-g4pkat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C26%2C3539%2C2329&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A New York Mets employee places cutouts of fans in the seats before the team's first game of the year on July 24.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Seth Wenig) </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Professional sports are a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/darrenheitner/2015/10/19/sports-industry-to-reach-73-5-billion-by-2019/#38610251b4b9">multi-billion-dollar business,</a> including the revenues generated by sports advertising and <a href="https://globalsportmatters.com/business/2019/03/07/tv-is-biggest-driver-in-global-sport-league-revenue/">sports media organizations</a>. </p>
<p>One Canadian example of the size and scope of pro sports is the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rogers-reaches-12-year-broadcast-deal-with-nhl-worth-52-billion/article15600412/">$5.2-billion deal</a> Rogers Communications signed in 2013 for the rights to broadcast NHL games across the country until 2025.</p>
<p>But the current COVID-19 climate has posed serious challenges to the business of sports. Professional sports teams are resuming play <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/article-its-game-over-for-sports-as-we-know-them-absent-a-widely-distributed/">in the midst of the pandemic</a>, largely at odds <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/06/24/sports/this-virus-is-proving-be-formidable-foe-return-sports/">with the rest of society</a> as lockdowns continue, businesses remain shuttered and millions of people work from home or are grappling with unemployment. </p>
<p>The start of the Major League Baseball season is an indication of the chaos that comes with these unprecedented times. Less than a week into the season, half of the members of the Miami Marlins tested positive for COVID-19. <a href="https://apnews.com/d9604aed7c6e479fd5e1626af924d109">MLB subsequently suspended the Marlins’ season</a>, and the positive tests have postponed other teams’ games too. </p>
<p>With other professional sports leagues like the NBA and the NHL preparing to resume, there are concerns about the ethics of <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/nba-insider-tom-haberstroh/covid-testing-priority-potential-issue-nba">prioritized access to coronavirus-related health care</a> for professional athletes, the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/sport-politics-activism-perfect-mix-200705171056129.html">relationship between sports and politics</a> and renewed <a href="https://theundefeated.com/features/athletes-and-activism-the-long-defiant-history-of-sports-protests/">athlete activism</a>, particularly in the midst of the resurgent Black Lives Matter movement. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of baseball players, each holding the same long strip of black cloth, kneel." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349719/original/file-20200727-35-13wpzdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349719/original/file-20200727-35-13wpzdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349719/original/file-20200727-35-13wpzdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349719/original/file-20200727-35-13wpzdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349719/original/file-20200727-35-13wpzdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349719/original/file-20200727-35-13wpzdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349719/original/file-20200727-35-13wpzdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the Washington Nationals baseball team kneel and hold a piece of black fabric in honour of the Black Lives Matter movement before an opening day baseball game against the New York Yankees at Nationals Park on July 23.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And what about the athletes? What do they want from both a <a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nba/news/coronavirus-spurs-derozan-nba/1hwxnt5fk0pq41xo4r9oy8oftt">social justice and mental health perspective</a>? </p>
<p>As Nick Kypreos, a former NHL player, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/sports-business-covid-19-nhl-hockey-fans-1.5656320">recently said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Players aren’t playing because they want to … they’re playing because they have to.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Sports typically reflect society</h2>
<p>Sports is typically a reflection of society, not an exception to it. COVID-19 seems to have turned the model of professional sport inside out. Never before in the modern era of North American professional sports have fans been so displaced from the game. </p>
<p>Historically, sport in North America developed into an industry with the advent of industrialization and urbanization more than a century ago. </p>
<p>As workers were gaining both increased leisure time and discretionary income, early sport organizers were adopting the elite British model of “leisurely pursuits” for the well-heeled in a more democratic way for society at large — and it worked.</p>
<p>Sport as entertainment, to play and watch, was born, and sports leagues and teams became organizational and commercial success stories.</p>
<p>But yesterday’s athletes were regular citizens compared with the highly paid superstars of today, living in step with their fellow fans, which made them relatable.</p>
<p>Communities and cities embraced sport as a driver of commercial and economic activity, which required significant infrastructure support (including the public financing of stadiums and arenas) over the years.</p>
<p>This era also began to benefit from technology, including transportation advances that made for faster and easier team and fan travel. <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/theymadeamerica/whomade/spalding_hi.html">Sporting goods companies like Spalding emerged</a>, making better equipment. New methods of promoting and selling professional sports quickly followed, heralding the birth of sports marketing. </p>
<p>This introduced new stakeholders into the sport business mix, in particular advertising and media partners, who also began to recognize the value of sports fans — an engaged and captive audience — who would buy their merchandise and read their newspapers for sports commentary. Eventually, those eyeballs began to be tracked and measured.</p>
<h2>Fans were central to sport success</h2>
<p>The citizens who engaged in this growing sport and entertainment model — sports fans — were fundamentally central to its success. The symbiotic relationship between fans and the professional sports industry grew and thrived, in particular from the 1950s, when <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/page/FansourceVeeck/bill-veeck-birth-fansourcing">creative, fan-centric strategies became popular</a> for many leagues and teams. </p>
<p>Contemporary sport professionals routinely discuss the importance of what’s known as <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2796259">fan avidity</a>, a key metric of success because research shows passionate fans have “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275031609_Measuring_fan_avidity_can_help_marketers_narrow_their_focus">been found to spend considerably more money, time, and effort for sports-related activities and goods than their non-avid fan counterparts</a>.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fans cheer and celebrate the Toronto Raptors victory outdoors at night." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349718/original/file-20200727-31-1d0n3sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349718/original/file-20200727-31-1d0n3sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349718/original/file-20200727-31-1d0n3sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349718/original/file-20200727-31-1d0n3sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349718/original/file-20200727-31-1d0n3sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349718/original/file-20200727-31-1d0n3sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349718/original/file-20200727-31-1d0n3sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fans react in Jurassic Park as the Toronto Raptors defeat the Golden State Warriors during Game 6 of the NBA Finals to win the NBA championship in Toronto on June 13, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The fan experience and related consumer activities have traditionally been central to key management decisions of professional sports organizations — unlike now, when fans are at a distance, participating at arm’s length via large video-game like screens, cardboard cutouts and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tv-sports-executives-warm-to-canned-crowd-noise-but-give-viewers-an-out-11592366400">canned crowd noise</a>.</p>
<p>Professional sports is back for a number of reasons, but none have much to do with why it was fundamentally established: For the fans, for the contributions sports teams made to social cohesiveness and for the communities that have traditionally supported pro sports, both financially and emotionally.</p>
<p>Instead, pro sports is back primarily to staunch the significant COVID-19 financial losses on behalf of ownership groups and to <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/29110487/sudden-vanishing-sports-due-coronavirus-cost-least-12-billion-analysis-says">satisfy media and corporate partners</a>. </p>
<h2>Orlando bubble is costly</h2>
<p>The resumption of professional sports, however, is also hugely costly to pro sports leagues. The NBA recently noted that the price of its Orlando bubble <a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29394052/orlando-bubble-cost-nba-more-150-million">will exceed US$150 million</a>. There’s also a personal and health cost: Professional athletes <a href="https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/07/21/nfl-covid19-positive-tests-95">are still testing positive for the virus</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Miami Heat player in a pale blue Miami Heat jersey looks down at the floor, his hands clasped against his forehead." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349733/original/file-20200727-23-1jy8ccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349733/original/file-20200727-23-1jy8ccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349733/original/file-20200727-23-1jy8ccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349733/original/file-20200727-23-1jy8ccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349733/original/file-20200727-23-1jy8ccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349733/original/file-20200727-23-1jy8ccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349733/original/file-20200727-23-1jy8ccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Miami Heat forward Derrick Jones Jr. tested positive for COVID-19 in June after the Heat and other NBA teams began mandatory testing in preparation for the resumption of the season.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So the important question here is: Will resuming professional sports work, can it thrive without fans and is it safe for players?</p>
<p>In the current COVID-19 environment, the preferences and priorities of fans <a href="https://ca.news.yahoo.com/when-sports-return-after-coronavirus-pandemic-fans-will-have-changed-if-they-even-come-back-at-all-145618338.html">are complicated at best</a>, with some suggesting that they may never fully return to professional sport. </p>
<p>Public opinion surveys are varied and inconsistent — as many as 60 per cent and as few as 30 per cent of sports fans have told various pollsters that they’re eager for pro sports to return. Information from actual sport teams, however, on the topic of what their fans want is conspicuously lacking.</p>
<p>There’s little consensus on how enthusiastically fans will return to professional sport, specifically when it comes to congregating in stadiums or arenas. That’s due to a host of potential post-pandemic realities, including <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/article-the-future-of-live-sports-exclusive-and-unworkable/">unappealing levels of security</a> and <a href="https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/07/02/nfl-considers-fans-sign-liability-waivers-coronavirus">strict legal requirements</a> in terms of liability waivers. </p>
<p>A recent <em>New York Times</em> study reported that of 511 epidemiologists who ranked “everyday activities to do again” in a year, “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html">attend a sporting event</a>” came in last, well behind the No. 1 pick of attending a wedding or funeral.</p>
<h2>Now what?</h2>
<p>So how can professional sports organizations get their fans back?</p>
<p>First off, they should keep fans at the core of their business strategy, customizing and tailoring messaging and engagements with fans via brand partnerships as much as possible. </p>
<p>They should make broad commitments to re-engage their diverse community and work to restore their position of social unifiers in society. They must break down the extreme barriers currently in place between athletes and fans while supporting and celebrating their athletes whenever possible.</p>
<p>And, as they did when the professional sports industry was born, they should continue to embrace innovation to drive enhanced fan engagement. They should extend the spirit of these efforts to their dealings with their key stakeholders, including corporate and media partners.</p>
<p>While the COVID-19 pause has created <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/07/21/welcome-back-sports/">huge challenges for professional sports</a>, organizations can use this opportunity to rethink and reshape the fan-centred experience for the next era of the industry throughout North America.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142793/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cheri L. Bradish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sports is typically a reflection of society, not an exception to it. COVID-19 seems to have turned the model of professional sport inside out.Cheri L. Bradish, Professor of Sport Business, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1420282020-07-06T15:55:46Z2020-07-06T15:55:46ZEdmonton Eskimos should follow Washington Redskins and drop its racist team name<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345678/original/file-20200705-29-4bt1d5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2359%2C1401%2C2269%2C1346&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When the Edmonton Eskimos released a statement in support of Black Lives Matter, the team was criticized for not addressing the controversy about its racist team name.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/John Woods</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Washington Redskins are no more. The National Football League franchise has finally agreed to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/13/us/washington-redskins-nickname-change-spt/index.html">drop its racist team name</a>. </p>
<p>The NFL team was one of three North American sports franchises that announced they were <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/07/03/cfls-edmonton-eskimos-plan-to-talk-to-inuit-communities-about-team-name/">reassessing their names</a> in the wake of worldwide protests about systemic racism — and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/sports/football/cfl/edmonton-eskimos-team-name-july8-1.5641937">pressure from the teams’ commercial sponsors</a>. Baseball’s Cleveland Indians and the Edmonton Eskimos of the Canadian Football League have yet to announce if they will follow Washington’s example.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1279117801240707072"}"></div></p>
<p>As an Inuit writer, scholar and researcher, I’ve been an outspoken critic of Edmonton’s refusal to rename its CFL team. I have never sat down and figured out how many hours I’ve logged into something that appears so very simple. Changing a sports team name. Getting rid of a racist moniker. Eliminating discrimination. Tossing out the detritus of bias and bigotry that lays on the field of Edmonton’s Commonwealth Stadium.</p>
<p>I have never given into the justifications others use for keeping the name: fan loyalty to a team they love; all the money that they have invested into Eskimos merchandise; how revered and idolized the players are; the countless Grey Cups and the benefits the city of Edmonton has gained through the team’s many wins.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345640/original/file-20200705-33909-1t4xvhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345640/original/file-20200705-33909-1t4xvhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345640/original/file-20200705-33909-1t4xvhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345640/original/file-20200705-33909-1t4xvhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345640/original/file-20200705-33909-1t4xvhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345640/original/file-20200705-33909-1t4xvhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345640/original/file-20200705-33909-1t4xvhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fans reach out to touch the Grey Cup after the Edmonton Eskimos’ victory in the 2015 CFL championship game.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I’m often told that it’s only football and the name is harmless. Harmless to whom? Harmless to the future generations of Inuit children who will grow up hearing that word — that one word, “Eskimos” — and be conditioned into believing that it’s OK?</p>
<h2>A name no one uses</h2>
<p>It’s OK to take the smallest group of Indigenous Canadians and maintain the use of a word that is no longer in use in academia, in news stories, <a href="https://www.uaf.edu/anlc/resources/inuit_or_eskimo.php">in present-day anthropology texts</a> or <a href="https://inhabitmedia.com/2017/01/16/inuit-spirit/">even colouring books</a>?</p>
<p>What are we supposed to do, as the people on the other side of the Eskimo coin – take a knee in support of fans who apparently have so very much disposable income that they can invest thousands of dollars over the course of a lifetime to show off their greedy pride? After all, “Eskimos” is only a word, so why couldn’t fans rally around a new team name?</p>
<p>Last year, in its most recent attempt to justify keeping the racist nickname, the team made a trip to Canada’s North with much fanfare and media coverage. They talked to the “real” Eskimos, the ones who live in the Arctic. The team returned to Edmonton and said “<a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/after-speaking-with-inuit-edmonton-eskimos-football-team-decides-to-keep-name-unchanged">no consensus emerged to support a name change</a>.”</p>
<p>How comforting it must have been for the team to have found that one Inuk male who <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/nunavut-mla-praises-edmonton-eskimos-1.5470827">had no problem with the name</a>. And that’s all it takes. It takes only one positive comment to justify keeping a name that made the team millions of dollars off the backs of Inuit Canadians.</p>
<h2>Support BLM, but not Inuit</h2>
<p>On June 3, the team posted <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/edmonton-eskimos-black-lives-matter_ca_5ed7b435c5b67534ae10b7cb">a statement on Instagram in support of Black Lives Matter</a> that said: “We seek to understand what it must feel like to live in fear … To feel undervalued. To feel persecuted … We stand with those who are outraged, who are hurt and who hope for a better tomorrow.” </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CA3ZeIIl4xu/?utm_source=ig_embed","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>We, as Inuit Canadians, understand what it must feel like to live in the fear of changing a team name.</p>
<p>We understand the importance of being able to wear the Edmonton Eskimos merchandise when exercising or drinking with friends in the comfort of your home while relaxing and watching the game.</p>
<p>We very much understand as Inuit Canadians what it feels like to be undervalued.</p>
<p>We understand what it is like to feel used … to feel persecuted at the mention of removing the word Eskimos. Add to that the reliving of the comments on social media any time the subject of removing the word Eskimos is brought to the attention of mainstream Canada, all while trying to survive a global pandemic and living as the smallest Indigenous Canadian population with the highest rates of poverty, food scarcity, over-crowded housing and teen suicide. </p>
<p>We stand as Inuit who are outraged, who are hurt by the use of the word “Eskimos.” And we too hope for a better tomorrow.</p>
<p>In announcing it was once again reassessing its name, the Edmonton Eskimos said they will be “ramping up consultation with the Inuit community.” That’s the same thing they said last time, yet they ultimately decided to keep the name.</p>
<p>What will be different this time? If the team wants to ramp up consultations, I hope they give me a call.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142028/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Norma Dunning does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the wake of protests about systemic racism, sports teams are under increased pressure to lose their racist nicknames. An Inuit scholar calls on the Edmonton Eskimos to do the right thing.Norma Dunning, Professor, University of AlbertaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1326402020-06-01T12:16:36Z2020-06-01T12:16:36ZRobo-umps are coming to Major League Baseball, and the game will never be the same<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338414/original/file-20200528-51509-1fm69mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C4%2C2991%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will robo-umps make the game of baseball better or worse?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Cardinals-Mets-Spring-Baseball/3c09d5501d95487ea3c69ad2b7c6c672/66/0">AP Photo/Julio Cortez</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theathletic.com/1363451/2019/11/12/the-astros-stole-signs-electronically-in-2017-part-of-a-much-broader-issue-for-major-league-baseball/">Houston Astros’ use of cameras to steal signs</a> and conceivably cheat to win the World Series has driven many recent conversations about the place and meaning of technology in sports. The Major League Baseball season is on hold due to the coronavirus pandemic, but this has only delayed the league addressing the <a href="https://apnews.com/192dc46ff863f433b6cc6fb06296a93c">controversy of using technology</a> within the game. </p>
<p>New MLB-sponsored technologies, specifically those used to call balls and strikes, will spawn an entirely new set of questions about tech in baseball. These will only heighten the sport’s identity crisis.</p>
<p>Baseball is a game heavily rooted in its history, and beloved traditions can make it very hard to change any aspect of the game. The historical continuity of game play enables fans to compare player and team performances over time. But the desire to keep the game true to its roots, as well as the changes – albeit gradual ones – that have lengthened the game and made it more boring, potentially makes the game <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/why-no-one-watches-baseball-anymore-mlb-red-sox-yankees/">out of touch with the changing landscape of sports fans</a>. </p>
<p>To reach a new fan base, MLB embraced visualization technologies to appeal to younger and more technologically savvy fans. MLB began to officially track ball trajectory, using the technological system PITCHf/x during the 2006 MLB playoff series, as a way for the public to participate in a more visceral and data-driven viewing experience. </p>
<p>MLB currently uses the Statcast system, which uses a combination of Doppler radar and optical tracking to follow the movements of the ball and player on the field. It provides an array of important data that can improve game play, including the angle and velocity of the ball coming off the bat when a player puts a ball in play. </p>
<h2>Technical precision versus judgment call</h2>
<p>Yet as consequential as these technologies are to the viewing and playing experience of the game, they only document the actions on the field. This is a critically important distinction because these systems do not intervene in, augment or change the way baseball is played.</p>
<p>As MLB works its way into the modern technological age, it is at the precipice of making an all-important leap into using technology to call balls and strikes. The case for using technology is to <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/human-fallibility-case-robot-baseball-umpires/">remove human fallibility</a> from the equation.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338416/original/file-20200528-51471-1c40y9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338416/original/file-20200528-51471-1c40y9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338416/original/file-20200528-51471-1c40y9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338416/original/file-20200528-51471-1c40y9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338416/original/file-20200528-51471-1c40y9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338416/original/file-20200528-51471-1c40y9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338416/original/file-20200528-51471-1c40y9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The home plate umpire checks an iPhone while wearing an earpiece – equipment used to relay automated ball and strike calls – prior to the start of an Atlantic League baseball game in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Robot-Umpires-Baseball/f6752f50bb604c4bb001a96aae99a7d2/10/0">AP Photo/Julio Cortez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In summer 2019, the Atlantic League of Professional Baseball, an independent league, experimented with the Trackman system. At the time, Trackman was the newest automated ball-strike technology available. The system works by using a 3D Doppler radar system to track and measure the flight of a baseball. Mapping this data onto the shape of a field, the location of home plate and the dimensions of each player’s strike zone enables the system to call balls and strikes. </p>
<p>MLB used the Atlantic League games, and MLB’s Arizona Fall League games later in the year, to assess and fine-tune the system for eventual use in major and minor league games. The system received <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2019/10/30/20939736/arizona-fall-league-automated-strike-zone">mixed reviews for accuracy</a>, speed in making calls and <a href="http://www.atlanticleague.com/archive/press/index.html?article_id=1262">consistent reliability</a>. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred indicated that minor league baseball would <a href="https://theathletic.com/1344428/2019/11/05/automated-strike-zone-to-debut-in-minor-league-baseball-in-2020-rob-manfred-says/?source=shared-article">use automated ball-strike technology in the 2020 season</a>. MLB does not have a clear timeline of when it plans to introduce ABS technology into major league games. However, when MLB returns to play during the COVID-19 pandemic, robotic umpires might be one of many <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29004498/mlb-union-focused-plan-allow-season-start-early-arizona">measures to manage social distancing</a>. </p>
<p>At the moment, it doesn’t appear that these new “robo-umps” will fully replace the plate umpire. But, they clearly are on the way and will change what it means to umpire the game. Arguably, this will change the history, tradition and culture of baseball.</p>
<h2>A whole new ballgame</h2>
<p>One of the enduring values of sports, and specifically baseball, is its nontechnoscientific simplicity. The game, at its core, is a decidedly throwback activity. One of the defining characteristics of baseball is the way that players and teams interpret the rules of the game. </p>
<p>Sign stealing is illegal within the written rules of the game. Players figuring out a way to know what pitch is being thrown, however, is a fundamental if unwritten part of the game. Yet, when the Astros used technology to enhance the art of sign stealing, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2020/02/27/bob-costas-mlb-players-reaction-houston-astros-scandal-unique/4890051002/">players and fans reacted negatively</a> to the team deploying too much technology within the game. </p>
<p>Similarly, the step to computer-assisted umpiring in a sport so defined by its history has the potential to change the game and precipitate a crisis of identity. These types of decision aids come between the players and the umpires. This redefines the way the game is played because throughout baseball’s history the <a href="https://tht.fangraphs.com/an-exploration-of-mlb-umpires-strike-zones/">differences in how each plate umpire calls balls and strikes</a> affect how players prepare for and react to each pitch.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338415/original/file-20200528-51456-zbdcc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338415/original/file-20200528-51456-zbdcc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338415/original/file-20200528-51456-zbdcc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338415/original/file-20200528-51456-zbdcc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338415/original/file-20200528-51456-zbdcc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338415/original/file-20200528-51456-zbdcc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338415/original/file-20200528-51456-zbdcc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon, right, argues with home plate umpire Bill Welke during a game against the Milwaukee Brewers in St. Petersburg, Florida.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Automated-Strike-Zone-Baseball/1a8ca53054d744358217a24ec4ec0ff2/18/0">AP Photo/Chris O'Meara</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The push to automate calling balls and strikes is driven by the occasional <a href="https://www.stadiumtalk.com/s/worst-umpire-calls-baseball-history-8ebe52dad0254947">poor performances by plate umpires</a> in consequential games. But, it’s still far from clear whether technological decision aids will increase the accuracy of calling the game. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/23/sports/premier-league-var-mike-riley.html">English Premier League’s use of a Video Assistant Referee</a> in soccer matches has shown that adding technology to ostensibly make better in-game decisions can raise questions about how precise decisions need to be. Video technology is also used in professional tennis, but only when players request a review of an official’s call.</p>
<h2>The strike zone: I know it when I see it</h2>
<p>Questions about precision will almost certainly arise when these tools move from the test cases of the <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/07/25/baseball-rule-changes-atlantic-league">Atlantic League</a> and the <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28537918/mlb-umpires-union-clarifies-use-electronics-spring-training-sites">MLB pre-season</a> to regular-season MLB games. The biggest issues will center on the specifics of the strike zone.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.mlb.com/official-information/umpires/strike-zone">MLB defines the strike zone</a> as “that area over home plate the upper limit of which is a horizontal line at the midpoint between the top of the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants, and the lower level is a line at the bottom of the knees. The Strike Zone shall be determined from the batter’s stance as the batter is prepared to swing at a pitched ball.” </p>
<p>This seems simple enough, but MLB has not defined these variables – a shortcoming that stands out in a world where it’s possible to digitally home in on millimeters of difference. Where exactly is the bottom of each player’s knee? Where exactly is the top of the shoulder? Most importantly, when, specifically, is the moment that the batter prepares to swing at the ball? </p>
<p>If MLB is going to move away from plate umpires having the interpretive flexibility to determine what a ball and a strike is over the period of a game or season to a system of digitally determined accuracy, then the league needs to do the necessary hard work of spelling out, in exacting detail, where the strike zone is and when it becomes the strike zone. </p>
<p>First, MLB should determine if baseball’s fans really want machines to call balls and strikes. Most importantly, MLB needs to look deep inside its soul and address the larger cultural question: Should the calling of balls and strikes be more a science than an art?</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132640/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rayvon Fouché does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Computerized systems that automatically determine whether a pitch is a ball or strike promise to make umpiring more accurate, but at what price?Rayvon Fouché, Professor of American Studies, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1296782020-02-13T14:02:56Z2020-02-13T14:02:56ZOn the 100th anniversary of the Negro Leagues, a look back at what was lost<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314864/original/file-20200211-146674-1h9nefg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C165%2C3551%2C2582&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Josh Gibson slides into home during the 1944 Negro Leagues All-Star Game.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/josh-gibson-of-the-east-team-creates-a-cloud-of-dust-as-he-news-photo/514700378?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the half century that baseball was divided by a color line, black America created a sporting world of its own. </p>
<p>Black teams played on city sandlots and country fields, <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Negro_League_Baseball/fnA-DwAAQBAJ?hl=en">with the best barnstorming their way across the country and throughout the Caribbean</a>.</p>
<p>A century ago, on Feb. 13, 1920, teams from eight cities formally created the Negro National League. Three decades of stellar play followed, as the league affirmed black competence and grace on the field, while forging a collective identity that brought together Northern-born blacks and their Southern brethren. And though Major League Baseball was segregated from the 1890s until 1947, <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Sandlot_Seasons/lQCUxy2okyYC?hl=en">these teams played countless interracial games</a> in communities across the nation.</p>
<p>After World War II, Jackie Robinson hurdled baseball’s racial divide. But while integration – baseball’s great experiment – was a resounding success on the field, at the gates and in changing racial attitudes, Negro League teams soon lost all of their stars and struggled to retain fans. The teams hung on for a bit, before eventually folding.</p>
<p>Years ago, when I worked on <a href="http://robruck.com/kings.php">a documentary about the Negro Leagues</a>, I was struck by how many of the interviewees looked back longingly on the leagues’ heyday. While there was the understanding that integration needed to happen, there was also the recognition that something special was forever lost.</p>
<h2>A league of their own</h2>
<p>Given the injustices of the 1890s – sharecropping, lynchings, disenfranchisement and the Supreme Court’s sanctioning of segregation in Plessy v. Ferguson – exclusion from Major League Baseball was hardly the most grievous injury African Americans suffered. But it mattered. Their absence denied them the chance to participate in a very visible arena that <a href="https://sabr.org/research/italian-immigrants-game">helped European immigrants integrate into American culture</a>. </p>
<p>While the sons of white immigrants – John McGraw, Honus Wagner, Joe DiMaggio – became major leaguers lionized by their nationalities, blacks didn’t have that opportunity. Most whites assumed that was because they weren’t good enough. Their absence reinforced <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.5406/jsporthistory.46.3.0325?seq=1">prevailing beliefs</a> that African Americans were inherently inferior – athletically and intellectually – with weak abdominal muscles, little endurance and prone to cracking under pressure.</p>
<p>The Negro Leagues gave black ballplayers their own platform to prove otherwise. On Feb. 13, 1920, Chicago American Giants owner Rube Foster <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Rube_Foster_in_His_Time.html?id=42awDM4oeL4C">convened a meeting at the Paseo YMCA</a> in Kansas City to organize the Negro National League. A Texas-born pitcher, Foster envisioned a black alternative to the major leagues. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314858/original/file-20200211-146682-1czwv1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314858/original/file-20200211-146682-1czwv1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314858/original/file-20200211-146682-1czwv1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314858/original/file-20200211-146682-1czwv1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314858/original/file-20200211-146682-1czwv1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314858/original/file-20200211-146682-1czwv1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314858/original/file-20200211-146682-1czwv1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the Chicago American Giants pose for a team portrait in 1914. Rube Foster is seated in the center of the first row wearing a suit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-the-chicago-american-giants-pose-for-a-team-news-photo/56766731?adppopup=true">Diamond Images/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Northern black communities <a href="https://history.house.gov/Exhibitions-and-Publications/BAIC/Historical-Essays/Temporary-Farewell/World-War-I-And-Great-Migration/">were exploding in size</a>, and Foster saw the league’s potential. Teams like the American Giants and the Kansas City Monarch regularly competed against white teams, drew large crowds and turned profits. Players <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Negro_League_Baseball/fnA-DwAAQBAJ?hl=en">enjoyed higher salaries</a> than most black workers, while black newspapers trumpeted their exploits, as did some white papers. </p>
<p>Other leagues cropped up; the Negro National League was soon joined by the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Negro_American_League">Negro American League</a> and the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Negro_Southern_League">Negro Southern League</a>. Some years, the Negro National and Negro American Leagues played a Negro League World Series. The leagues also sent their best players to <a href="http://objectofhistory.org/guide/meanings/">the East-West All-Star Classic</a>, an annual exhibition game in Chicago.</p>
<p>But the Negro National League’s ascent was stunted after Foster <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Rube_Foster_in_His_Time.html?id=42awDM4oeL4C">was exposed to a gas leak</a>, nearly died and suffered permanent brain damage. Absent his leadership and hammered by the Great Depression, the league disbanded in 1931.</p>
<h2>A proving ground</h2>
<p>Gus Greenlee, who ran the popular lottery known as the numbers game, <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/fabd8400">revived the league</a> in Pittsburgh in 1933 after a sandlot club called the Crawfords, which included the young slugger <a href="https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/gibson-josh">Josh Gibson</a>, approached him for support. He agreed to pay them salaries and reinforced their roster with the addition of flamethrower <a href="https://baseballhall.org/discover/inside-pitch/paige-nominated-for-hall-of-fame">Satchel Paige</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314860/original/file-20200211-146670-s1ad7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314860/original/file-20200211-146670-s1ad7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1539&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314860/original/file-20200211-146670-s1ad7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314860/original/file-20200211-146670-s1ad7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1539&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314860/original/file-20200211-146670-s1ad7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1934&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314860/original/file-20200211-146670-s1ad7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1934&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/314860/original/file-20200211-146670-s1ad7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1934&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satchel Paige.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/satchel-paige-is-throwing-on-the-sidelines-for-the-news-photo/96357139?adppopup=true">Transcendental Graphics/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Greenlee went on to build the finest black-owned ballpark in the country, <a href="https://deadballbaseball.com/?p=6373">Greenlee Field</a>, while headquartering the Negro National League on the floor above the Crawford Grill, his renowned jazz club in Pittsburgh’s Hill District. </p>
<p>Pittsburgh soon became the mecca of black baseball. Sitting along America’s East-West rail lines, the city was a requisite stop for black entertainers, leaders and ball clubs, <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Playing_America_s_Game/iVfhCeJrqWMC?hl=en">which traveled from cities as far away as Kansas City</a>. Its two teams, the Homestead Grays and Pittsburgh Crawfords, won a dozen titles. Seven of the first 11 Negro Leaguers eventually inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame – stars like Cool Papa Bell, Oscar Charleston, Josh Gibson, Buck Leonard and Satchel Paige – played for one or both squads.</p>
<p>The sport, meanwhile, became a major source of black pride. </p>
<p>“The very best,” Pittsburgh-born author John Wideman <a href="http://robruck.com/kings.php">noted</a>, “not only competed among themselves and put on a good show, but [also] would go out and compete against their white contemporaries and beat the stuffing out of them.”</p>
<p>Satchel Paige and the Crawfords famously defeated St. Louis Cardinals ace Dizzy Dean <a href="https://www.historynet.com/barnstorming-aces-satchel-paige-and-dizzy-dean.htm">in an exhibition game in Cleveland</a> – just two weeks after the Cardinals had won the 1934 World Series. Overall, Negro League teams <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/127212-how-good-were-the-negor-leagues">won far more games against white squads than they lost</a>.</p>
<p>“There was so much [negativity] living over [us] which we had no control [over],” Mal Goode, the first black national network correspondent, <a href="http://robruck.com/kings.php">recalled</a>. “So anything you could hold on to from the standpoint of pride, it was there and it showed.”</p>
<h2>Sacrificed on integration’s altar</h2>
<p>For Major League Baseball, no moment was more transformative than the arrival of Jackie Robinson, who, in 1947, paved the way for African Americans and darker-skinned Latinos <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Baseball_s_Great_Experiment.html?id=PuFa6Z4p4JAC">to reshape the game</a>. </p>
<p>But integration destroyed the Negro Leagues, plucking its young stars – Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, Roy Campanella and Ernie Banks – who brought their fans with them. The big leagues never considered folding in some of the best black teams, and <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Raceball/Ohi8CFRudkMC?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover">its owners rejected</a> the Negro National League owners’ proposal to become a high minor league.</p>
<p>Like many black papers, colleges and businesses, the Negro National League paid a price for integration: extinction. The league ceased play after the 1948 season. Black owners, general managers and managers soon disappeared, and it would be decades before a black manager <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/07/frank-robinson-baseballs-first-black-manager-and-hall-of-famer-dies-at-83.html">would get a chance to steer a major league ballclub</a>.</p>
<p>Major League Baseball benefited from talent cultivated in the Negro Leagues and on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/20/sports/baseball/20sandlot.html">the sandlots that sustained the sport</a>, especially in inner cities. But when those leagues crumbled, prospective black pros were relegated to minor league teams, <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Raceball/Ohi8CFRudkMC?hhl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover">often in inhospitable, southern cities</a>. Many Negro League regulars simply hung up their cleats or played in the Caribbean. </p>
<p>The playwright August Wilson set his play, “<a href="http://scriptfest.com/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FENCES.pdf">Fences</a>,” which tells the story of an ex-Negro Leaguer who becomes a garbageman in Pittsburgh.</p>
<p>“Baseball gave you a sense of belonging,” Wilson <a href="http://robruck.com/kings.php">said in a 1991 interview</a>. At those Negro League games, he added, “The umpire ain’t white. It’s a black umpire. The owner ain’t white. Nobody’s white. This is our thing … and we have our everything – until integration, and then we don’t have our nothing.” </p>
<p>The story of African Americans in baseball has long been portrayed as a tale of their shameful segregation and redemptive integration. Segregation was certainly shameful, especially for a sport invested in its own rhetoric of democracy. </p>
<p>But for African Americans, integration was also painful. Although long overdue and an important catalyst for social change, it cost them control over their sporting lives. </p>
<p>It changed the meaning of the sport – what it symbolized and what it meant for their communities – and not necessarily for the better.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Ruck received grants from the National Endowment for the Humanities, the Social Science Research Council, Major League Baseball, and other foundations and corporations while writing Sandlot Seasons: Sport in Black Pittsburgh and producing Kings on the Hill: Baseball's Forgotten Men. </span></em></p>While segregation was a shameful period in baseball history, the Negro Leagues were a resounding success and an immense source of pride for black America.Rob Ruck, Professor of History, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1232542019-10-16T11:27:14Z2019-10-16T11:27:14ZHow gambling built baseball – and then almost destroyed it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296947/original/file-20191014-135509-y6fct2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A team photograph of the 1919 Chicago White Sox squad, many of whom would be implicated in throwing that year's World Series.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/61/1919_Chicago_White_Sox.jpg">Heritage Auctions</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine if, after watching the thrilling victory of the Chicago Cubs in <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/recap?gameId=361102105">Game 7 of the 2016 World Series</a> over the Cleveland Indians – a game in which the Cubs won their first championship in over a century – you learned that the Indians had collaborated with gamblers to intentionally throw the series.</p>
<p>Would you trust the game, its umpires and its players, ever again?</p>
<p>That was the scope of the crisis that enveloped baseball a century ago, when key members of the 1919 Chicago White Sox, including pitchers Eddie Cicotte and Claude “Lefty” Williams, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Betrayal.html?id=O511CgAAQBAJ">conspired to throw the series to their opponents</a>, the Cincinnati Reds.</p>
<p>What became known as the “Black Sox Scandal” rocked professional baseball. But it wasn’t an aberration in a sport that was otherwise clean.</p>
<p>Baseball became America’s national pastime because of – and not in spite of – gambling.</p>
<h2>Gambling fuels baseball’s rise</h2>
<p>In his book “<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Baseball_in_the_Garden_of_Eden.html?id=hh_ZK-b24C0C">Baseball in the Garden of Eden</a>,” historian John Thorn explains how gambling was far from an “impediment to the game’s flowering”; instead, it was “the vital fertilizer.”</p>
<p>In baseball’s infancy, the sport was thought of as a boy’s game. But over the course of the 19th century, gambling deepened adult interest and investment in the sport, attracting cohorts of older fans.</p>
<p>Gambling’s popularity was helped along by the spread of statistics, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=mTvDDAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=history+of+baseball+and+statistics&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwidhvuDjZzlAhUImeAKHa7jC5gQ6AEwBHoECAYQAg#v=onepage&q&f=false">that particular lifeblood of baseball that still keeps fans hooked today</a>. Developed initially to allow the results of a game to be printed onto the page <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780312322236">in the form of box scores</a>, statistics also created a pool of data that gamblers could use to inform their bets – many of which were made from the stands, in the middle of games.</p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=ZCo95RGsyo0C&pg=PA122&dq=fenway+1912+rabid+contingent&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiMkKftjZzlAhXnYN8KHUjCCkIQ6AEwAHoECAAQAg#v=onepage&q=fenway%201912%20rabid%20contingent&f=false">In his history of Fenway Park</a>, Glenn Stout describes how, in the ballpark’s early years, “the best seats were quickly taken over by a rabid contingent of gamblers who bet on absolute everything imaginable, ranging from the eventual winner … to ball and strike calls” and “even such arcane issues as whether the wind would change direction.” Fans waving dollar bills and barking out bets resembled “brokers on the floor of the stock exchange.”</p>
<p>This kind of gambling was so common in the stands that Ernest Lawrence Thayer’s iconic 1888 poem, “<a href="https://poets.org/poem/casey-bat">Casey at the Bat</a>,” captured such a moment in one of its stanzas: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“A straggling few got up to go in deep despair.</p>
<p>The rest clung to that hope which springs eternal in the human breast;</p>
<p>They thought, "If only Casey could but get a whack at that –</p>
<p>We’d put up even money now with Casey at the bat.” </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Playing to lose</h2>
<p>Some players also sought to get in on the action.</p>
<p>In 1919, <a href="https://sabr.org/research/mlbs-annual-salary-leaders-1874-2012">the highest-paid player</a> was Detroit Tigers outfielder Ty Cobb, who earned US$20,000 – which equates to roughly $300,000 today, or less than <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/256187/minimum-salary-of-players-in-major-league-baseball/">Major League Baseball’s current minimum salary</a>.</p>
<p>Most of Cobb’s peers earned far less than the future Hall of Famer. Working with gamblers was an attractive way to supplement their incomes – and many of them did.</p>
<p>One of the most notorious was first baseman Hal Chase. Dubbed the “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=xjp8DAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=black+prince+of+baseball&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiEv8KskZzlAhXjRt8KHUHGAx4Q6AEwAHoECAEQAg#v=onepage&q=black%20prince%20of%20baseball&f=false">Black Prince of Baseball</a>” by baseball historians Donald Dewey and Nicholas Acocella, Chase made a veritable career out of throwing games. Playing mostly with the New York Highlanders, Chase, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Betrayal.html?id=O511CgAAQBAJ">as Charles Fountain noted</a>, “threw games for money, he threw games for spite, he threw games as a favor for friends, he threw games apparently for no reason at all other than to stay in practice.” </p>
<p>But this wasn’t the kind of gambling that brought baseball to the brink of disaster in 1919. That scandal saw the players themselves – working in tandem with professional gamblers and gangsters – fix the World Series. </p>
<p>The 1919 World Series <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Betrayal.html?id=O511CgAAQBAJ">was the best-attended Series</a> at that point in the game’s history, but the play of the White Sox turned the games into elaborate theatrical performances.</p>
<p>Those in on it had to play to lose, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1919_WS.shtml">and the statistics are telling</a>. </p>
<p>Shortstop Swede Risberg hit .080 – not a typo – while committing four fielding errors. Outfielder Happy Felsch didn’t do much better, hitting .192, with just five hits in 26 at-bats. He also committed two errors. Pitcher Claude “Lefty” Williams surrendered 12 runs in 16.1 innings of work.</p>
<p>While the players tried to pull off authentic performances for fans, they weren’t always successful. Felsch <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Betrayal.html?id=O511CgAAQBAJ">was chided by his fellow cheaters</a> for his blunders in center, which they deemed too obvious. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, however, the games lacked the core drama and appeal of sports: the uncertainty of the outcome. </p>
<p>Sportswriters took notice. Rumors were already flying in the press box before the World Series’ conclusion that something was wrong. Sports journalist Hugh Fullerton had heard these rumors when he arrived to cover the series, though he tried to convince himself – and his readers – that the story couldn’t be true. Still, once the series ended, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=vqbROoIZmJsC&pg=PA66&lpg=PA66&dq=%22Yesterday%27s,+in+all+probability,+is+the+last+game+that+will+be+played+in+any+World+Series.%22&source=bl&ots=uFbmG3GEqH&sig=ACfU3U0AN9Ms1uO0eUiq7eFhvtYtA5HWZw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjFlo_3lZzlAhXMm-AKHeBAA4UQ6AEwAHoECAUQAQ#v=onepage&q=%22Yesterday's%2C%20in%20all%20probability%2C%20is%20the%20last%20game%20that%20will%20be%20played%20in%20any%20World%20Series.%22&f=false">Fullerton wrote worriedly</a> in the Chicago Herald and Examiner that “Yesterday’s, in all probability, is the last game that will be played in any World Series.”</p>
<p>Fullerton kept pursuing the story and became the first sportswriter to break the details to the public in December 1919, with an article in the New York World entitled, “<a href="https://www.thefreelibrary.com/Uncovering+the+Fix+of+the+1919+World+Series%3A+the+role+of+Hugh...-a0127279569">Is Big League Baseball Being Run for Gamblers, with Players In on the Deal?</a>” </p>
<p>As more details emerged, the scandal overwhelmed the sport and threatened to destroy it. If the World Series itself, baseball’s premier event, could not be trusted, how would the sport survive? </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296967/original/file-20191014-135495-1uy58cm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296967/original/file-20191014-135495-1uy58cm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296967/original/file-20191014-135495-1uy58cm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296967/original/file-20191014-135495-1uy58cm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296967/original/file-20191014-135495-1uy58cm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=924&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296967/original/file-20191014-135495-1uy58cm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=924&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296967/original/file-20191014-135495-1uy58cm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=924&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kenesaw_Mountain_Landis_Portrait.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The new baseball commissioner, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Kenesaw-Mountain-Landis">Kenesaw Mountain Landis</a>, acted decisively and independently of the courts. Even after the players were acquitted in a trial that ended on Aug. 2, 1921, Landis – a former federal judge – had already made his decision.</p>
<p>“Regardless of the verdict of juries,” <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/white-sox/ct-flashback-buck-weaver-black-sox-spt-0705-20150703-story.html">he announced, on the morning of Aug. 3, 1921</a>, “no player that throws a ball game; no player that undertakes or promises to throw a ball game; no player that sits in a conference … where the ways and means of throwing games are discussed and does not promptly tell his club about it, will ever play professional baseball.” </p>
<p>The stunned White Sox players – including stars like “Shoeless” Joe Jackson, who had hit .375 in the series but was nonetheless aware of what his teammates were up to – were banned from baseball for life. </p>
<h2>The specter of 1919</h2>
<p>Seventy years later, commissioner Bart Giamatti acted in a similarly swift and punitive manner when he banned all-time hits leader Pete Rose from baseball in 1989.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/41spT5xklx4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Bart Giamatti calls the banishment of Pete Rose ‘the sad end to a sorry episode’ in a 1989 news conference.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rose had admitted to gambling on his own games, even as a manager. <a href="https://www.vvdailypress.com/article/20140827/sports/140829828">Some thought Giamatti overreacted</a>, given that Rose never bet against his own team.</p>
<p>That argument, as historian Bruce Kuklick wrote <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=vl_fP1CoYBoC&pg=PA176&lpg=PA176&dq=%22Writing+the+History+of+Practice:+The+Humanities+and+Baseball,+with+a+Nod+to+Wrestling%22&source=bl&ots=LTrMM1MzjG&sig=ACfU3U29aCUv984TqdSA959MrqPgw-VKUg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiv_euimpzlAhVJn-AKHSA8CrwQ6AEwAHoECAcQAQ#v=onepage&q=%22Writing%20the%20History%20of%20Practice%3A%20The%20Humanities%20and%20Baseball%2C%20with%20a%20Nod%20to%20Wrestling%22&f=false">in a 1999 essay</a>, doesn’t hold up. Rose, he points out, didn’t bet on every game. It’s not inconceivable, then, that he would make decisions during games in which he didn’t place bets – say, not bringing in his best relief pitcher – to make sure that reliever would be available for the games he did bet on. </p>
<p>Giamatti surely had 1919 on his mind when he meted out Rose’s punishment. With the game having barely escaped death once, Giamatti knew that organized baseball couldn’t risk skating too close to that edge again. </p>
<p>And yet in August of this year, Major League Baseball made FanDuel – a daily fantasy sports gambling service – <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/major-league-baseball-and-fanduel-strike-sports-betting-deal.html">its official gambling partner</a>.</p>
<p>It may be that baseball hopes that gambling will bring more adults back to the sport, just as it did in its early days. After all, <a href="https://www.ticketnews.com/2019/10/mlb-attendance-drops-to-16-year-attendance-low-this-season/">attendance at games is down</a>. Football, meanwhile, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-ratings-most-watched-sports-events-2018-2019-1">has become the most watched sport on television</a> in the U.S. <a href="http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001028939/article/record-nashville-crowd-hosts-mostwatched-draft">Six million viewers</a> even tuned in for the 2019 NFL Draft.</p>
<p>Gambling may fuel more interest in the sport. But throwing on more fuel can result in a fire that burns out of control. In 1919, baseball came close to burning its own house down. One hundred years later, journalist Hugh Fullerton would surely be stunned to know that big league baseball has once again made a contract with gamblers, in full view of both players and fans.</p>
<p>Let’s hope the story doesn’t end in scandal this time around.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123254/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Edwards does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Up until the 1919 Black Sox Scandal, gambling and baseball had a marriage of convenience. A century later, gambling is again being seen as a solution to the sport’s woes.Rebecca Edwards, Professor of History, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1202652019-07-22T10:55:56Z2019-07-22T10:55:56ZWhat’s really behind baseball’s home run surge?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284788/original/file-20190718-116586-1v39x1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some pitchers are convinced the balls are being messed with behind the scenes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/juiced-baseball-17887849?src=V--_6SFz4nAy4KvqeZeHMQ-1-47&studio=1">Aspen Photo/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the 2019 Major League Baseball All-Star Game, Houston Astros pitcher Justin Verlander <a href="https://deadspin.com/justin-verlander-says-mlb-is-juicing-baseballs-to-goose-1836199057">griped</a> that too many home runs had been hit so far this season. He accused the league of altering, or “juicing,” the balls, making it easier to hit home runs.</p>
<p>Among players and fans, Verlander’s “juicing” claim has gained momentum. </p>
<p>There’s no question that there’s been a home run surge. Home runs per plate appearance is currently sitting at 3.5%, an <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml">all-time high</a>. At this rate, players will hit more than 6,600 homers by season’s end, shattering the prior record, <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/09/19/most-home-runs-one-season-record">set in 2017</a>, by more than 500 home runs.</p>
<p><iframe id="v4ocu" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/v4ocu/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Though league officials denied, for years, that they were altering the balls to boost the home run rate, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/05/24/mlb-finally-admits-changes-to-ball-itself-fueled-home-run-spike-but-doesnt-say-how-or-why/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c43f7bdfc5be">last year they conceded</a> that the ball had changed, though they blamed suppliers. Then, earlier this season, <a href="https://foxsportsradio.iheart.com/content/2019-06-24-mlb-officially-acknowledges-the-baseballs-are-different-this-season/">they admitted that the ball’s core had been changed</a>.</p>
<p>We recently wrote a book titled “<a href="http://www.corkedthebook.com">Corked: Tales of Advantage in Competitive Sports</a>,” so this topic is in our wheelhouse. </p>
<p>It certainly seems that recent changes to the ball are playing a role in the uptick in home runs. But could other factors, like the climate and advanced analytics, also be to blame? </p>
<h2>Breaking down the baseball</h2>
<p>Rawlings makes around <a href="https://brokensecrets.com/2011/05/25/pro-baseball-teams-use-900000-balls-each-year/">1 million baseballs</a> each year for use in MLB play.</p>
<p>Official baseballs consist of <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/">six different materials</a>: a rubberized cork center (called a “pill”), two hemispherical clamshells of molded black vulcanized rubber, a layer of red rubber, wound wool, two flaps of cowhide leather, and 88 inches of hand-stitched, wax-coated red thread.</p>
<p><a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/">There is a growing body of evidence</a> that, beginning around 2015, there have been distinct changes in the density and chemical composition of materials making up the league’s official baseballs.</p>
<p>The most noteworthy changes have been to the ball’s core and surface. </p>
<p>A 2016 investigation conducted by <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/">FiveThirtyEight</a> found that official baseballs were bouncier and less air resistant beginning in 2015. </p>
<p>Using X-ray imaging, FiveThirtyEight’s study compared balls made prior to 2015 with those produced after. It found an average 40% decrease in core density in baseballs produced after 2015. Compositional analyses identified roughly 7% more rubber and 10% less silicon in the later pills. These changes correspond to lower pill mass and increased bounce. </p>
<p>Nearly two years after the FiveThirtyEight investigation, Major League Baseball released its own <a href="http://www.mlb.com/documents/7/9/4/278128794/Full_Report_of_the_Committee_Studying_Home_Run_Rates_in_Major_League_Baseball_052418.pdf">84-page report</a> acknowledging there were aerodynamic changes in the baseball – specifically, the balls were smoother. But the league claimed this wasn’t due to any changes in the way Rawlings was making the ball. MLB suggested that it was likely due to slight variations in the materials used by Rawlings, along with the way the balls were being stored.</p>
<p>For example, since Rawlings acquires its leather – and doesn’t process it at its facilities – it’s possible that an alternative tanning process could result in even smoother leather surfaces. Baseballs with smoother surfaces will, once hit, move through the air more easily. It’s a minor change, but it matters. </p>
<p>There is also the ball’s thread. Journalists for the online sports publication The Athletic <a href="https://theathletic.com/381544/2018/06/06/how-one-tiny-change-to-the-baseball-may-have-led-to-both-the-home-run-surge-and-the-rise-in-pitcher-blisters/">deconstructed baseballs</a> and found that laces in the newer ones – specifically those used to stitch seams on the 2016 and 2017 balls – are 9% thicker than those from 2014. </p>
<p>The investigator speculated that the thicker laces might make it easier, when constructing the ball, to build a tighter ball that won’t be impeded by as much air resistance when it’s hit.</p>
<h2>Climate controls</h2>
<p>Then there’s one explanation outside the control of the league, players or manufactorers: the climate.</p>
<p>Cork in the pill is commonly harvested from the bark of the Cork Oak Tree in southern Europe and North Africa. But <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/wine-corks-may-owe-quality-gene-activity">a changing climate in these regions</a> has some concerned that cork quality is declining. Wine manufacturers are already <a href="https://winefolly.com/tutorial/alternative-wine-closures/">searching for</a> alternatives for making wine corks. While wine makers care about the cork’s ability to seal, baseball makers are more concerned with the mechanical response of the cork in the ball. </p>
<p>Baseballs are produced from a formed <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/inside-baseball-what-gives-a-baseball-its-bounce/">rubberized cork</a> that’s engineered from smaller cork particles; but it’s certainly possible that, like wine corks, their purity and composition are changing with the climate. </p>
<p>The presence of humidity in and on the ball also affects its inertia and deadens its response when hit by a bat. In 2018, <a href="https://tht.fangraphs.com/some-physics-of-humidors/">CBS reported</a> that Major League Baseball would require all teams to use air conditioned rooms to store baseballs in 2019. Most common HVAC systems not only lower the temperature in a room but also reduce the humidity. It’s possible that controlling a ball’s humidity through HVAC in muggier ballparks is actually increasing its liveliness by drying them out.</p>
<p>Altogether, <a href="https://deadspin.com/justin-verlander-says-mlb-is-juicing-baseballs-to-goose-1836199057">Verlander’s criticisms</a> may be warranted. Newer baseballs are more aerodynamic, probably in part due to a combination of smoother leather, lower profile stitches and a more accurate centering of the ball’s pill, coupled with the way balls are being stored.</p>
<h2>The analytics element</h2>
<p>But there’s another element to consider. What if hitters and pitchers are simply playing the game differently?</p>
<p>Consider pitch speed. Pitchers that light up the radar gun have always been in vogue for the simple reason that hitters have less time to react to their pitches.</p>
<p>How hard a pitch is thrown can influence how far a contacted ball travels. It’s straightforward kinematics: Baseballs will bounce off the bat at a higher velocity when contacting a faster pitch. </p>
<p>The average fastball velocity rose from <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/dangerous-trend-in-baseball-as-pitching-speeds-increase-so-do/article_22670354-b5cf-11e8-934a-3b63e3a10c4b.html">90.9 mph in 2008 to 92.0 mph in 2013</a>. But <a href="http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#avg-pitch-velo,r,2015">pitch velocity hasn’t risen</a> during the most recent home run surge.</p>
<p>So maybe it has something to do with the way hitters <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/mlb-launch-angles-story/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ee648f5777de">have changed their approach at the plate</a>. </p>
<p>In recent years, they’ve started to focus on what are called “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/mlb-launch-angles-story/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ee648f5777de">launch angles</a>.” The <a href="http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/launch-angle">launch angle</a> is the vertical angle at which the ball leaves a player’s bat after being struck. Due to advances in analytics, it’s become common knowledge that players have a much better chance of hitting a home run if the launch angle is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/mlb-launch-angles-story/?utm_term=.6e3f22859ddc">between 25 and 35 degrees</a> and the ball bounces off their bat <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/exit-velocity-part-i-on-the-import-of-exit-velocity-for-hitters/">at a velocity of more than 100 miles per hour</a>.</p>
<p>With such defined criteria for hitting home runs, <a href="https://www.sporttechie.com/major-league-baseball-mlb-all-star-game-home-run-derby-hitting-launch-angle-exit-velocity-pete-alonso-ted-williams-tony-gwynn-wade-boggs-don-mattingly-montreal-expos/">it is no surprise that many hitters are tweaking their swings</a> accordingly. So while pitchers aren’t throwing harder, the new focus on launch angles could be contributing to the recent home run surge. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284789/original/file-20190718-116543-ctcrgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284789/original/file-20190718-116543-ctcrgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284789/original/file-20190718-116543-ctcrgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284789/original/file-20190718-116543-ctcrgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284789/original/file-20190718-116543-ctcrgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284789/original/file-20190718-116543-ctcrgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284789/original/file-20190718-116543-ctcrgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New York Mets rookie first baseman Pete Alonso connects for a home run on July 5. Alonso broke the Mets rookie home run record less than halfway through the season.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Phillies-Mets-Baseball/4b57f825f6fd41e580fabc4a07160728/47/0">AP Photo/Frank Franklin II</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the emphasis on hard contact comes with a trade off. Players need to swing harder to achieve a higher exit velocity. The harder they swing, the more likely they’ll be to hit one out – but that’s if they make contact. Along with more home runs, the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml">strikeout rate for hitters has skyrocketed</a>. </p>
<p>So far this season, strikeouts per at bat is above 25% for the first time in league history. </p>
<p>Whatever the reason for more home runs, are they good for the game? </p>
<p>Sure, pitchers like Verlander might gripe, but you might expect fans to be ecstatic. </p>
<p>If they are, it isn’t being reflected at the gate. Even with more balls flying out of the park, <a href="https://nypost.com/2019/05/30/mlbs-attendance-problem-is-getting-worse/">attendance is at record lows</a>.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recent changes to the ball seem to be juicing hitters’ stats. But could other factors, like the climate and advanced analytics, also be playing a role?Brian J. Love, Professor of Materials Science and Engineering, University of MichiganMichael L. Burns, Clinical Lecturer of Anesthesiology, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1148742019-04-08T10:46:23Z2019-04-08T10:46:23ZAn analysis of nearly 4 million pitches shows just how many mistakes umpires make<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267833/original/file-20190405-180052-84ayxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Umpire Quinn Wolcott signals a strike out during an at-bat by Toronto Blue Jays' Josh Thole.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Blue-Jays-Mariners-Baseball/753d04ec82ee4876b8799dc94b81793e/1/0">AP Photo/Ted S. Warren</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Baseball is back, and fans can anticipate another season of amazing catches, overpowering pitching, tape-measure home runs – and, yes, controversial calls that lead <a href="https://youtu.be/QOZxT9MHAJU?t=60">to blow-ups between umpires and players</a>.</p>
<p>Home plate umpires are at the heart of baseball; every single pitch can require a judgment call. Yet ask any fan or player, and they’ll tell you that many of these calls are incorrect – errors that can affect strategy, statistics and even game outcomes.</p>
<p>Just how many mistakes are made?</p>
<p>Comprehensive umpire performance statistics are not readily known, tracked or made available. Major League Baseball <a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-metro-umpire-mlb-evidence-20181130-story.html">doesn’t seem interested in sharing the historical data</a>. </p>
<p>Could it be because the numbers aren’t flattering?</p>
<p>Luckily, every MLB pitch is tracked and made available – numbers then have to be accessed, downloaded, sorted and evaluated. This takes time and computing power. <a href="https://www.bu.edu/today/2019/mlb-umpires-strike-zone-accuracy/">In a study</a> with support from a team of Boston University graduate students, we closely analyzed how many balls get called strikes and vice versa. The accuracy of all home plate umpires was ranked and age and experience taken into account. </p>
<p>While the human element of the game certainly adds color, our results show that it comes at a high cost: far too many mistakes.</p>
<h2>Mining the data</h2>
<p>All 30 Major League Baseball stadiums <a href="http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast">are outfitted with triangulated tracking cameras</a> that follow baseballs from the pitcher’s hand until it crosses home plate. Ball location can be tracked up to 50 times during each pitch, and accuracy is said to have a margin of error of one inch. This information is used to evaluate players, but MLB doesn’t share the results in a way that allows fans to easily evaluate the performance of umpires.</p>
<p>We analyzed nearly 4 million pitches over the course of the last 11 regular seasons. This data, which had been collected by MLB-owned <a href="http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast">Statcast</a> and <a href="https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/pitch-fx/">Pitch f/x</a>, was sorted, formatted and superimposed on a standard strike zone map. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267847/original/file-20190405-180010-j8muom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267847/original/file-20190405-180010-j8muom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267847/original/file-20190405-180010-j8muom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267847/original/file-20190405-180010-j8muom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267847/original/file-20190405-180010-j8muom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267847/original/file-20190405-180010-j8muom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267847/original/file-20190405-180010-j8muom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An example of balls and strikes superimposed over a strike zone from a 2010 game between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays. The red points were called strikes, and the green points were called balls.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.boston.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/zoneplot.php-pitchSelallgamegid_2010_05_12_tormlb_bosmlb_1sp_type1s_type7-thumb-600x400-10822.gif">Pitch F/X</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using this available technology, we measured ball and strike calls for accuracy. We then ranked the error rates for each active umpire, creating a “Bad Call Ratio.” The higher the ratio, the worse the umpire. </p>
<p>The findings were troubling. </p>
<p>Botched calls and high error rates are rampant. Between 2008 and 2018, MLB home plate umpires made incorrect calls over 12 percent of the time. In the 2018 season, MLB umpires made 34,246 incorrect ball and strike calls for an average of 14 per game, or 1.6 per inning. Last season, 55 games – 2.2 percent of the total played – ended with an incorrect call.</p>
<p>When batters had two strikes, the error rate for all umpires increased – incorrect calls happen 29 percent of the time, almost double the error rate when the batter had one or no strikes. </p>
<p>We also found that the highest error rates did not come from younger, less experienced umpires; they came from the older, veteran umpires. <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/umpires/roster.jsp">The average MLB umpire</a> is 46 years old, with 13 years of experience. But the top performers between 2008 and 2018 had an average age of 33 years old and had less than three years of experience at the big league level. Like professional baseball players, professional umpires seem to peak at a certain age. </p>
<p>Despite years of data-driven evidence, MLB has notoriously resisted retiring poorly performing umpires and hiring better-performing ones. The league remains top heavy with aging umpires, making it difficult for fresh new talent to make impact. </p>
<h2>Umpires can still play a role</h2>
<p>For all of the ways MLB has incorporated technology into the game – the radar gun, instant replay, pitch graphics, <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/consumer-electronics/audiovideo/baseballs-player-tracking-system-makes-broadcast-debut">Doppler radar</a> – the league has resisted deploying this technology to assist with calling balls and strikes.</p>
<p>Umpires continue to call balls and strikes like they did a century ago when Babe Ruth played. </p>
<p>I’m not proposing that baseball bring in robots and fire the umpires; baseball has too many one-off situations and complexities to assume a bot could replace an umpire. But MLB does have a unique opportunity to use existing technology and strengthen human-software collaboration so umpires can do a better job.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267830/original/file-20190405-180020-1ecdo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267830/original/file-20190405-180020-1ecdo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267830/original/file-20190405-180020-1ecdo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267830/original/file-20190405-180020-1ecdo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267830/original/file-20190405-180020-1ecdo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267830/original/file-20190405-180020-1ecdo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267830/original/file-20190405-180020-1ecdo1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Atlanta Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte argues with home plate umpire Doug Eddings after striking out against the Arizona Diamondbacks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Braves-Diamondbacks-Baseball/87f87ee32fa044f5bc60609b5d122c1e/552/0">AP Photo/Ralph Freso</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Umpires could easily be fitted with ear pieces connecting them to a control center that conveys real-time ball and strike information. These tech-assisted umpires could then make calls correctly, quickly and effortlessly. Time-honored and much beloved behind-the-plate signs, signals and sounds would still exist. And umpires could remain the final arbiter, having override ability under certain circumstances, such as if a ball hits the ground before crossing the plate or if a system outage occurs.</p>
<p>Strong recruiting, hiring and retention of superior performing umpires coupled with tech aids would reduce error rates and also help dampen biased pitch calling. Strike zone subjectivity would be minimized, allowing batters and pitchers to focus more on their craft and less on guessing a specific umpire’s strike zone quirks. It would also reduce conflict between teams and umpires. And imagine how much the player and fan experience would improve if more than 34,000 annual incorrect calls vanished.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark T. Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Umpires don’t need to be replaced by robots, but some troubling findings indicate that they could use a little help.Mark T. Williams, James E. Freeman Lecturer in Management, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1132992019-03-27T16:38:00Z2019-03-27T16:38:00ZHow the 1869 Cincinnati Red Stockings turned baseball into a national sensation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265915/original/file-20190326-36267-1t4q3w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A drawing from Harper's Weekly depicts a game between the Red Stockings and the Brooklyn Atlantics.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://digitalcollections.nypl.org/items/510d47d9-c158-a3d9-e040-e00a18064a99">New York Public Library</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This Major League Baseball season, fans may notice a <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-patch-to-mark-150-years-of-pro-baseball-c303826766">patch</a> on the players’ uniforms that reads “MLB 150.”</p>
<p>The logo commemorates the <a href="https://ourgame.mlblogs.com/last-hurrah-for-the-cincinnati-red-stockings-8f45a7cae59a">Cincinnati Red Stockings</a>, who, in 1869, became the first professional baseball team – and went on to win an unprecedented 81 straight games.</p>
<p>As the league’s first openly salaried club, the Red Stockings made professionalism – which had been previously frowned upon – acceptable to the American public.</p>
<p>But the winning streak was just as pivotal. </p>
<p>“This did not just make the city famous,” John Thorn, Major League Baseball’s official historian, said in an interview for this article. “It made baseball famous.”</p>
<h2>Pay to play?</h2>
<p>In the years after the Civil War, baseball’s popularity exploded, and thousands of American communities fielded teams. Initially most players were gentry – lawyers, bankers and merchants whose wealth allowed them to train and play as a hobby. The <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/National_Association_of_Base_Ball_Players">National Association of Base Ball Players</a> banned the practice of paying players.</p>
<p>At the time, the concept of amateurism was especially popular among fans. Inspired by classical ideas of sportsmanship, <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-doping-wasnt-considered-cheating-63442">its proponents argued</a> that playing sport for a reason other than for the love of the game was immoral, even corrupt. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, some of the major clubs in the East and Midwest began disregarding the rule prohibiting professionalism and secretly hired talented young working-class players to get an edge. </p>
<p>After the 1868 season, the national association reversed its position and sanctified the practice of paying players. The move recognized the reality that some players were already getting paid, and that was unlikely to change because professionals clearly helped teams win.</p>
<p>Yet the taint of professionalism restrained virtually every club from paying an entire roster of players.</p>
<p>The Cincinnati Red Stockings, however, became the exception. </p>
<h2>The Cincinnati experiment</h2>
<p>In the years after the Civil War, Cincinnati was <a href="https://www.cincinnatimagazine.com/citywiseblog/remember-cincinnati-porkopolis-not-compliment/">a young, growing, grimy city</a>. </p>
<p>The city had experienced an influx of German and Irish immigrants who toiled in the multiplying slaughterhouses. The stench of hog flesh wafted through the streets, while the black fumes of steamboats, locomotives and factories lingered over the skyline. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, money was pouring into the coffers of the city’s gentry. And with prosperity, the city sought respectability; it wanted to be as significant as the big cities that ran along the Atlantic seaboard – New York, Philadelphia and Baltimore.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265921/original/file-20190326-36256-5lntjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265921/original/file-20190326-36256-5lntjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265921/original/file-20190326-36256-5lntjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265921/original/file-20190326-36256-5lntjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265921/original/file-20190326-36256-5lntjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265921/original/file-20190326-36256-5lntjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265921/original/file-20190326-36256-5lntjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Men slaughter hogs on an assembly line in a Cincinnati meat packing plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/item/2018654774/">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cincinnati’s main club, the Red Stockings, was run by an ambitious young lawyer named <a href="https://sabr.org/node/24735">Aaron Champion</a>. Prior to the 1869 season, he budgeted US$10,000 for his payroll and hired <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/eb17c14e">Harry Wright</a> to captain and manage the squad. Wright was lauded later in his career as a “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=3CoUoAn55A0C&pg=PA7&source=gbs_toc_r&cad=4#v=onepage&q&f=false">baseball Edison</a>” for his ability to find talent. But the best player on the team was his 22-year-old brother, George, who played shortstop. <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/5468d7c0">George Wright</a> would end up finishing the 1869 season with a .633 batting average and 49 home runs. </p>
<p>Only one player hailed from Cincinnati; the rest had been recruited from other teams around the nation. Wright had hoped to attract the top player in the country for each position. He didn’t quite get the best of the best, but the team was loaded with stars.</p>
<p>As the season began, the Red Stockings and their new salaries attracted little press attention.</p>
<p>“The benefits of professionalism were not immediately recognized,” Greg Rhodes, a co-author of “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Baseball-Revolutionaries-Stockings-Rocked-Country/dp/1798058049">Baseball Revolutionaries: How the 1869 Red Stockings Rocked the Country and Made Baseball Famous</a>,” told me. “So the Cincinnati experiment wasn’t seen as all that radical.”</p>
<p>The Red Stockings opened the season by winning 45 to 9. They kept winning and winning and winning – huge blowouts. </p>
<p>At first only the Cincinnati sports writers had caught on that something special was going on. Then, in June, the team took its first road trip east. Playing in hostile territory against what were considered the best teams in baseball, they were also performing before the most influential sports writers.</p>
<p>The pivotal victory was a tight 4-to-2 win against what had been considered by many the best team in baseball, the powerful <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/New_York_Mutuals">New York Mutuals</a>, in a game played with <a href="https://sabr.org/research/baseball-and-tammany-hall">Tammany Hall “boss” William Tweed</a> watching from the stands. </p>
<p>Now the national press was paying attention. The Red Stockings continued to win, and, by the conclusion of the road trip in Washington, they were puffing stogies at <a href="http://www.baseball-almanac.com/firsts/prz_1st.shtml">the White House with their host, President Ulysses Grant</a>.</p>
<p>The players chugged home in a boozy, satisfied revel and were met by 4,000 joyous fans at Cincinnati’s Union Station.</p>
<h2>American idols</h2>
<p>The Red Stockings had become a sensation. They were profiled in <a href="http://www.rarenewspapers.com/view/173318?list_url=%2Flist%3Fpage%3D22%2525per_page%3D30%2525q%255Bcategory_id%255D%3D107-harpers-weekly%2525sort%3Ditems.id%2525sort_direction%3DASC">magazines</a> and serenaded in <a href="http://oct07.hugginsandscott.com/cgi-bin/showitem.pl?itemid=7144">sheet music</a>. Ticket prices doubled to 50 cents. They drew such huge crowds that during a game played outside of Chicago, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/First-Boys-Summer-Sixty-Nine-Professional/dp/0964140209">an overloaded bleacher collapsed</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265926/original/file-20190326-36248-r1x0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265926/original/file-20190326-36248-r1x0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265926/original/file-20190326-36248-r1x0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265926/original/file-20190326-36248-r1x0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265926/original/file-20190326-36248-r1x0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265926/original/file-20190326-36248-r1x0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265926/original/file-20190326-36248-r1x0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265926/original/file-20190326-36248-r1x0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aaron Chapman’s squad averaged 42 runs a game in the 1869 season.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">From the collection of Greg Rhodes</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most scores were ridiculously lopsided; during the 1869 season the team averaged 42 runs a game. Once they even scored 103. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TRO/index.shtml">The most controversial contest</a> was in August against the Haymakers of Troy, New York. The game was rife with rumors of $17,000 bets, and bookmakers bribing umpires and players. The game ended suspiciously at 17 to 17, when the Haymakers left the field in the sixth inning, incensed by an umpire’s call. The Red Stockings were declared the winners.</p>
<p>The season climaxed with a road trip west on the new <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Nothing-Like-World-Transcontinental-1863-1869/dp/0743203178">transcontinental railroad</a>, which had just opened in May. The players, armed with rifles, shot out windows at bison, antelope and even prairie dogs and slept in wooden Coleman cars lighted with whale oil. More than 2,000 excited baseball fans greeted the team in San Francisco, where <a href="https://www.amazon.com/First-Boys-Summer-Sixty-Nine-Professional/dp/0964140209">admission to games was one dollar in gold.</a> </p>
<p>Cincinnati ended its season with an undefeated record: 57 wins, 0 losses. The nation’s most prominent sports writer of the day, <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/436e570c">Henry Chadwick</a>, declared them “champion club of the United States.”</p>
<p>Despite fears that others clubs would outbid Cincinnati for their players, every Red Stockings player demonstrated his loyalty by signing contracts to return for the 1870 season.</p>
<h2>The demise begins</h2>
<p>The winning streak continued into the next season – up until a <a href="https://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/june-14-1870-atlantic-storm-red-stockings-suffer-first-defeat">June 14, 1870, game</a> against the Brooklyn Atlantics.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265914/original/file-20190326-36248-9lex3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265914/original/file-20190326-36248-9lex3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265914/original/file-20190326-36248-9lex3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265914/original/file-20190326-36248-9lex3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265914/original/file-20190326-36248-9lex3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=916&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265914/original/file-20190326-36248-9lex3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265914/original/file-20190326-36248-9lex3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265914/original/file-20190326-36248-9lex3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An error by second baseman Charles Sweasy ended the Red Sockings’ historic streak.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">From the collection of John Thorn</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After nine innings, the teams were tied at 5. Under the era’s rules, the game could have been declared a draw, leaving the streak intact. Instead Harry Wright opted to continue, and the Red Stockings ended up losing in extra innings after an error by the second baseman, Charlie Sweasy.</p>
<p>The 81-game win streak had ended.</p>
<p>The Red Stockings did not return in 1871. Ticket sales had fallen after their first loss, and other teams began to outbid the Red Stockings for their star players. Ultimately the cost of retaining all of its players was more than the Cincinnati club could afford.</p>
<p>Yet the team had made its mark.</p>
<p>“It made baseball from something of a provincial fare to a national game,” Thorn explained.</p>
<p>A few years later, in 1876, the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1876.shtml">National League was founded</a> and still exists today. The <a href="https://www.mlb.com/reds/one-fifty">Cincinnati Reds</a> were a charter member. And not surprisingly, some of the biggest <a href="https://www.mlb.com/reds/one-fifty/throwback-uniforms">150-year celebrations</a> of the first professional baseball team are occurring in the town they once called Porkopolis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113299/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Wyss does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This season marks the 150th anniversary of the first professional baseball team and the start of its eye-popping 81-game winning streak.Robert Wyss, Professor of Journalism, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1138962019-03-27T10:32:47Z2019-03-27T10:32:47ZStatistics ruined baseball by perfecting it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264976/original/file-20190320-93032-1xfhd5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The game is becoming less exciting for fans.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fan-celebrating-victory-championship-baseball-game-97905992">Daniel Padavona/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since sportswriter Henry Chadwick popularized the <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=106891539">box score</a> in the 19th century, baseball fans have had a love affair with statistics. Many can recite records like Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, Rickey Henderson’s 130 stolen bases or Barry Bonds’ 73 home runs in one season. But have statistics ruined the game fans love?</p>
<p>In the new millennium, the statistical revolution forced baseball to double down on numbers. By looking deeper into the data, the far-sighted general manager Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics <a href="https://books.wwnorton.com/books/978-0-393-05765-2/">converted a small-market team into a big winner</a> – and in the process got to be played by Brad Pitt in <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/">the blockbuster film “Moneyball.”</a></p>
<p>Soon fans had to learn new stats, dumping time-honored but not very revealing counts like pitcher wins and runs batted in, in favor of newfangled rates like <a href="http://m.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-on-base-average">wOBA</a> and <a href="https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/xfip/">xFIP</a>. But the statistical turn has changed how the game is played – and in far from fan-friendly ways. As someone who used stats to <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/016665.html">turn around a team</a>, I know that they also have their downsides. </p>
<h2>Longer, more tedious games</h2>
<p>For one, stats awareness has lengthened the game. Since the analytical revolution, everyone in baseball now knows that lefty pitchers can more easily retire lefty batters. Often such a relief pitcher enters the game, with warm-ups and commercials, to face one batter, cueing more commercials. </p>
<p>The number of pitchers per game is at an <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/misc.shtml">all-time high</a>. Although the length of the game was down a few minutes last season from its peak in 2017, the average game still clocked in at <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/misc.shtml">three hours</a>, half an hour longer than it was 40 years ago. </p>
<p>The game is also less exciting. Analytics showed that to steal a base, perhaps the most thrilling event in baseball, you have to be very good at it. Failing means making an out, and outs are precious. So baseball teams rarely do things that routinely results in outs. Last season, steal attempts dropped to their <a href="https://www.mlb.com/cut4/why-are-stolen-bases-so-rare-c283918854">lowest level</a> since 1964. Rickey Henderson’s record is safe.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264977/original/file-20190320-93060-1w5riqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264977/original/file-20190320-93060-1w5riqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264977/original/file-20190320-93060-1w5riqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264977/original/file-20190320-93060-1w5riqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264977/original/file-20190320-93060-1w5riqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264977/original/file-20190320-93060-1w5riqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264977/original/file-20190320-93060-1w5riqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264977/original/file-20190320-93060-1w5riqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Barry Bonds hits his 756th career home run.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Nationals-Giants-Baseball/a2bd834cbbca40dea34a99e34d4723d2/13/1">AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez</a></span>
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<h2>Taking pitches and striking out</h2>
<p>Because of stats, baseball also sees more and more of the “<a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/3/28/17171162/spring-training-home-run-strikeout-stats-three-true-outcomes-trend">three true outcomes</a>,” meaning that a player either strikes out, walks or hits a home run. The batter doesn’t have to run and fielders don’t have to field, so the game loses action.</p>
<p>Since “Moneyball,” all teams know that the walk is a valuable offensive asset and wears down pitchers. At the turn of the century during the steroids era, walks peaked, then declined as steroids were policed, but have <a href="http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hiwalk3.shtml">trended upward</a> back to the steroid-era levels. The number of pitches per plate appearance is at an <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/misc.shtml">all-time high</a>. </p>
<p>Little Leaguers fear nothing more than striking out. But professional hitters, and knowledgeable teams and fans, have learned that striking out is not that bad, if swinging harder increases chances at a home run. Homers are up to <a href="http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hihr6.shtml">steroid-era levels</a>. Fans dig the long ball, though mainly like runs. However, the home run surge hasn’t resulted in more runs scored – just more of the same number of runs coming by way of homers, with runners trotting across home plate. With more players swinging for the fences, home runs are spread more evenly than in the past. No current player has any real chance of surpassing Bonds’s performance-enhanced records. </p>
<p>All outs count the same, whether by striking out or giving some defender a chance to make an exciting play. In 2018, four hitters cracked the top 10 for <a href="http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/histrk2.shtml">most strikeouts in a season</a>. </p>
<p>For their part, pitchers know striking out a batter is valuable, as it eliminates the chances of a struck ball falling safely or leaving the yard. The recent jump in strikeouts is due to teams’ relying on relievers armed with two good pitches, the knowledge that they will pitch one inning tops and a corresponding willingness to pitch as hard as possible for that inning.</p>
<p>Pitchers who are converted from starters to <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/relievers-have-broken-baseball-we-have-a-plan-to-fix-it/">one-inning relievers</a> strike out far more batters than they did as starters. Also, starters know that they are going to face fewer batters. So they hold less in reserve, and now whiff batters at higher rates, too. The season record for strikeouts was broken last year for <a href="http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/histrk4.shtml">the 11th season in a row</a>. </p>
<h2>Losing for the win (maybe)</h2>
<p>Most of all, heightened stats awareness has made entire seasons miserable for the fans of the low-revenue teams that analytics initially were helping. After the success of the Oakland Athletics, the big-market organizations also learned how to play Moneyball. The Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox – the defending World Series champions, who have won three times since hiring Bill James in 2003 – have <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2017">lucrative local TV deals</a>. They also have top analytics departments. Their combination of money and analytical strength promises more World Series appearances in the 2020s.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264978/original/file-20190320-93063-12l07ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264978/original/file-20190320-93063-12l07ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264978/original/file-20190320-93063-12l07ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264978/original/file-20190320-93063-12l07ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264978/original/file-20190320-93063-12l07ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264978/original/file-20190320-93063-12l07ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264978/original/file-20190320-93063-12l07ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/264978/original/file-20190320-93063-12l07ja.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Billy Beane’s statistics-first approach kickstarted a new era of baseball.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Athletics-Yankees-Baseball/4a03f7224f4e495d885eb41e7ea30f00/13/0">AP Photo/Bill Kostroun</a></span>
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<p>Worse than that, many teams with lower local TV revenues and marginal rosters now use a stats-based strategy to <a href="https://theconversation.com/baseballs-biggest-problem-isnt-pace-of-play-its-teams-tanking-113094">lose on purpose</a> for several seasons for a chance at gaining two or three years of winning. The more losses, the higher the draft pick, and teams going through the tanking “process” will also trade their best players for a group of prospects, hoping to be competitive down the road. </p>
<p>A team can <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-astros-tanked-their-way-to-the-top/">tank its way to the top</a>, but it can take several seasons and is not an exact science. What is certain is that during the down years the team is often hard to watch. Take the Chicago White Sox. That team went into full tank mode two seasons ago, after losing not on purpose for several seasons, with <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings">another lost season</a> in store for 2019. Even if the White Sox eventually win, their window will likely not be open long. And because of revenue sharing to small-market teams, tanking franchises can still make money by reducing payroll. It’s win-win for the franchise, but lose-lose-maybe-win-lose for their fans.</p>
<h2>Fixing the game</h2>
<p>What is to be done? Major League Baseball has adopted only <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rules-changes">marginal changes</a>. Delays between innings have been shaved by five seconds. A rule for 2020 stipulates that a pitcher must face at least three batters or finish the inning – dooming the one-out reliever. </p>
<p>The MLB is considering instituting a 20-second pitch clock, which would speed up the game. But they also will increase rosters by a player, creating more room for one-inning relievers. </p>
<p>I think more drastic moves are needed to counter how stats have compounded boredom in baseball. The MLB needs to discourage tanking, shorten the game and make it more exciting. To do all that baseball should share more revenue, institute high minimum payrolls, reform the draft, prevent batters from leaving the box, reduce the number of pitchers and lower the mound.</p>
<p>But I believe that there’s little chance these steps will be taken. Attendance may be <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/misc.shtml">down</a>, but <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2019/01/07/mlb-sees-record-revenues-of-10-3-billion-for-2018/#5fa7858b5bea">revenues continue to increase</a>. More lucrative national TV deals are on the horizon, while losing teams can profit by having low payrolls. All those numbers suggest that little will change soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113896/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edwin Amenta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An obsession with statistics has made teams better than ever – but the game is now more tedious for fans to watch.Edwin Amenta, Professor of Sociology, University of California, IrvineLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1132422019-03-25T10:42:23Z2019-03-25T10:42:23ZThe promise and peril of the Dominican baseball pipeline<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265343/original/file-20190322-36279-1015h5j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Boys practice baseball at a park in San Antonio de Guerra, a small municipality in the Dominican Republic.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pictures.reuters.com/CS.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&VBID=2C0FCIH7YVM6G&SMLS=1&RW=1321&RH=694&PN=2&POPUPPN=89&POPUPIID=2C0BF1OQDZ5NK&RW=1321&RH=694">Reuters/Ricardo Rojas</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Latinos will comprise about <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/mar/29/baseball-latino-trump-mlb">30 percent</a> of Major League Baseball rosters on Opening Day, in large part because MLB has systematized its recruiting and developmental programs in the Caribbean over the last 25 years. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=uisYJ7MAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">researching</a> my book “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=Ohi8CFRudkMC&printsec=frontcover&dq=raceball+rob+ruck&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiw95yv8Y7hAhXDmeAKHR4AD4MQ6AEIKjAA#v=onepage&q=raceball%20rob%20ruck&f=false">Raceball</a>” in the Caribbean basin, I saw firsthand how this system operates: the way prospectors scour the Dominican Republic for the next nuggets of talent, the way players are selected and groomed at a young age, and the way a signing bonus in the thousands of dollars can transform an impoverished family’s life. </p>
<p>Few Dominican ballplayers, however, actually make it to the big leagues. Enmeshed in a system that encourages them to specialize in baseball at an early age, they’re left with little to fall back on when baseball doesn’t pan out.</p>
<h2>The rise of the academy</h2>
<p>When I first went to the Dominican Republic in 1984, scouting was rudimentary; a handful of scouts searched the countryside and “barrios” for prospects, observing young players and projecting how they might develop with better training and nutrition. </p>
<p>At the time, most youth played for amateur and semi-pro squads that represented communities, sugar mills, military units and banana plantations. The first generations of Dominican major leaguers – players like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aloufe01.shtml">Felipe Alou</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maricju01.shtml">Juan Marichal</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/motama01.shtml">Manny Mota</a> – came from these teams and signed for a few hundred dollars.</p>
<p>In the 1970s, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=guerre002epi">Epy Guerrero</a>, a former minor leaguer, opened the first academy devoted to grooming MLB talent, a spartan facility outside Santo Domingo. He later formed a partnership with the Toronto Blue Jays and developed stars like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellge02.shtml">George Bell</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fernato01.shtml">Tony Fernández</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265367/original/file-20190322-36260-1pguvrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265367/original/file-20190322-36260-1pguvrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265367/original/file-20190322-36260-1pguvrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265367/original/file-20190322-36260-1pguvrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265367/original/file-20190322-36260-1pguvrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265367/original/file-20190322-36260-1pguvrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265367/original/file-20190322-36260-1pguvrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Bell in 1987, the year he won the American League Most Valuable Player award.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-S-CAN-APHS155448-Bell-George/eb5d03bccc9b4794ba4a8e2baa790334/17/0">AP Photo</a></span>
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<p>When I visited, Guerrero’s charges trained for hours under a scalding sun. But compared with their peers cutting sugar cane in adjoining fields, or the army of scavengers picking through mounds of trash at a nearby Santo Domingo dump, the work seemed plush. Baseball clearly offered an opportunity for a far better future.</p>
<p>By the mid-1980s, Latinos made up <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/topic/baseball-demographics-1947-2012">one-ninth</a> of all major leaguers; half were from the Dominican Republic, <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dominican_Rep_demography.png">then a nation of 6 million</a>. </p>
<p>In 1987, the Los Angeles Dodgers took the academy model to a new level, <a href="http://www.sportsmbablog.com/campo-las-palmas-dodgers-renovation-analysis/">opening Campo Las Palmas</a> near San Pedro de Macorís, the sugar-cane milltown <a href="https://baseballhall.org/discover/la-vida-baseball">known as</a> “the cradle of shortstops.” Las Palmas was a gated compound featuring well-manicured fields, dorms with hot water and top-notch coaches.</p>
<p>“There is nothing like it in all of the Caribbean,” Juan Marichal told me as we watched a game there in July 1987. It soon produced an astonishing number of stars, including <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martipe02.shtml">Pedro Martínez</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml">Adrián Beltré</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mondera01.shtml">Raúl Mondesí</a>.</p>
<h2>Signing bonuses balloon</h2>
<p>The Dodgers’ success prompted each organization to eventually open an academy of its own, and these academies turned the 1980s wave of Dominican ballplayers into a tsunami of talent. Today, Dominicans alone now number <a href="https://borgenproject.org/dominican-baseball-recruitment/">more than one-tenth</a> of all major leaguers.</p>
<p>In some ways, the academy system has been a win-win for Dominicans and Major League Baseball. In 1990, teams signed 281 boys, <a href="https://www.si.com/more-sports/2009/03/02/dr-investigators">paying them a total of US$750,000 in bonus money</a>. Most received $2,000 to $5,000, a small fortune for their families. </p>
<p>But by 2009, aggregate bonuses for foreign-born prospects <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB124966930911615069">had soared to $70,000,000</a>, with most going to Dominicans. Several boys received payouts of more than a million dollars. In 2018, the Blue Jays doled out <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/july-2-international-prospects-signing-tracker-c283495622">a $3.5 million signing bonus</a> to Dominican shortstop Orevelis Martinez.</p>
<p>Latin youth benefit from two MLB policies. The first is that only players from the U.S., Puerto Rico and Canada <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/draftday/faq.jsp">are eligible for the annual player draft</a>. So Dominicans – along with other foreign-born prospects – begin their careers as free agents and can sign with the club offering the best deal.</p>
<p><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/transactions-glossary/">The second policy</a> is that a boy cannot sign professionally until July of the year he turns 17. This means that top prospects can become millionaires as young as 16 but are off-limits when they are younger. </p>
<p>At the same time, a system devoted to identifying and training talented ballplayers in their early teen years – in exchange for getting a piece of the bonus money – has developed. Headhunters called “<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Buscone">buscones</a>” persuade families to let them train their sons, usually 13 to 16 years old, at their facilities. They house, feed and provide medical care for boys, who often leave school to focus on baseball. As boys near their 17th birthday, buscones take them to tryouts in the hopes of sparking a bidding war.</p>
<p>In return, buscones <a href="https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/dominican-baseball-agents-skim-players-bonuses-1.895651">get 30 percent or more</a> of the signing bonus money. Some are trustworthy advisers. But others will try to boost the appeal of their prospects by <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/child-molesting-trainer-teenage-steroid-use-come-define-latin-american-baseball-010517552.html">giving them performance-enhancing drugs</a> – often cheap veterinary steroids – or altering their birth documents so they appear younger.</p>
<p>Once they’re signed, the prospects enter the academies run by Major League Baseball clubs. There, they’re given some instruction in English and life skills to prepare boys for <a href="https://www.heraldtribune.com/article/LK/20090331/News/605245351/SH/">the culture shock</a> they confront if promoted to the U.S. Most boys, however, never leave the island, and many who do are released after a few years stateside. In the end – at most – <a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/onenacion/post/_/id/710/baseball-academies-thrive-in-the-dominican-republic">3 to 5 percent</a> of Dominicans who sign reach the majors.</p>
<h2>Little to fall back on</h2>
<p>When cut, what do these Dominican boys have left to show for their monomaniacal commitment to baseball? Most never finished school and lack marketable skills. Some find low paying work in the game, but for many, their time in the academy was the high point of their lives.</p>
<p>The system rewards those who make it but quickly forgets those who don’t. In recent years, clubs <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/dr/education_initiative.jsp">have upgraded their educational programs</a> and verbally committed themselves to investing in Dominican communities. Some clubs, like the <a href="https://kjzz.org/content/460367/dominican-baseball-players-expected-show-field-and-classroom">Mets</a> and <a href="http://www.morethanagameus.com/dominicanreplublic/">Pirates</a>, are more serious about these efforts than others, and some youth whose careers end at the academy are better prepared for the future as a result. </p>
<p>But that does nothing for the boys who have been training for years and never make it to an academy.</p>
<p><a href="https://cssh.northeastern.edu/people/faculty/alan-klein/">Alan Klein</a>, an anthropologist at Northeastern University who has studied the academies since their inception, told me that MLB should focus “at the back end,” when players are “transitioning out of their career” rather than when they’re struggling to jump start one. </p>
<p>“Going to classes has rarely been valued in their young lives, and less so when they’re so hungry to escape their circumstances,” he said. “Teams should provide opportunities to get an education when they’re older, more appreciative, and can see the value of it – once they’re out of the commodity chain.” </p>
<p>That education should be “pragmatic – a hybrid between formal education and job-based skills,” he added. </p>
<p>Klein doubts that most teams, despite the hype over education, really care. </p>
<p>“They’re in the business of fabricating talent, and their interests are short term. It’s been that way for the past 25 years,” he said. </p>
<p>Given how much Major League Baseball has benefited from the labor of Latino players, surely it could do more. The league could start by funding a study to investigate what happens to those whose careers fizzle out before making it to an academy and find ways to invest in their lives and communities. </p>
<p>Those investments wouldn’t produce ballplayers or enhance clubs’ bottom lines. But it would pay back some of the social debt the league has incurred in the Caribbean.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Ruck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some of the best players in the world come from this small Caribbean nation, where an entire system of training young talent has blossomed. But few actually make it to the big leagues.Rob Ruck, Professor of History, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1130942019-03-22T10:43:56Z2019-03-22T10:43:56ZBaseball’s biggest problem isn’t pace of play – it’s teams tanking<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265124/original/file-20190321-93051-1smhe8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Miami Marlins fans have little to look forward to this season.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Phillies-Marlins-Baseball/62cb806fcf784ba98c84f9c590047847/33/0">AP Photo/Brynn Anderson</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Major League Baseball is in trouble. But for all of Commissioner Rob Manfred’s <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/commissioner-rob-manfred-talks-pace-of-play-c266818890">concerns about pace of play</a>, he’s looking in the wrong direction.</p>
<p>The game is healthy. The league isn’t.</p>
<p>Tanking – or intentionally losing – is endemic. Consider the Miami Marlins.</p>
<p>Since former Yankees great Derek Jeter’s ownership group took over the Marlins at the conclusion of the 2017 season, they’ve:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Traded away the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml">2017 Most Valuable Player</a></p></li>
<li><p>Gotten rid of <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yelicch01.shtml">the eventual 2018 MVP, too</a></p></li>
<li><p>And flipped a <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ozunama01.shtml">two-time All-Star</a> as well as the <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-argument-for-j-t-realmuto-as-baseballs-best-catcher/">game’s best catcher</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The 2018 Marlins went 63-98, 14 wins worse than 2017. Projections for 2019 have them somewhere between “<a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/projected-2019-mlb-standings-yankees-dodgers-looking-like-favorites-as-baseball-waits-on-harper-and-machado/">just as lousy</a>” and “<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings">even worse</a>.”</p>
<p>It’s so dire that Jeter <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/derek-jeter-wants-marlins-fans-to-remember-ballpark-experience-not-the-scoreboard-in-2019/">said</a> fans might not remember the score of this season’s games, but at least they’ll remember the ballpark experience. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Marlins baseball.</p>
<p>For the Marlins, though, it’s all part of a bigger plan: lose now, save money, accumulate young talent and – hopefully – win later.</p>
<p>The Marlins are just one of many teams following this strategy, and there’s a logic to their approach: There’s no prize for mediocrity, and if a team, at its best, will probably miss the playoffs, why bother trying? Why not shed payroll and collect the higher draft picks that come from having a terrible record?</p>
<p><a href="https://batten.virginia.edu/school/people/adam-felder">As a data analyst</a>, I wanted to study the underlying factors fueling this trend. It seems that the league’s inequitable pay structure plays a big role.</p>
<h2>The best get paid … less?</h2>
<p>Let’s begin by looking at who’s been getting the bulk of the playing time in MLB since 1995. For the sake of space, we’ll focus only on batters, using plate appearances – the number of times that player batted during the season – as the metric.</p>
<p><iframe id="LLkFl" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LLkFl/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>There’s no trend here. For the last quarter century, players in their mid-to-late 20s have played the most. Once they turn 30, they have fewer opportunities.</p>
<p>Does this reflect their productivity?</p>
<p>Determining the best players is a bit difficult since players are good at different things. But “<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml">wins above replacement</a>” is an all-encompassing metric that takes into account a number of discrete skill sets, from defense to baserunning to hitting.</p>
<p>Looking at wins above replacement, players tend to hit peak productivity in their mid-20s, before experiencing a downturn around age 30. As they approach their mid-30s, they’re a fraction of the player they once were.</p>
<p>So it makes sense that players younger than 30 get most of the playing time: They’re the most productive. </p>
<p>They must make the most money, then, right?</p>
<p>Wrong. Toggle between the tabs on the graph below and you’ll see that players in their mid-to-late 20s are the most productive but that their counterparts over 30 draw the biggest salaries.</p>
<p><iframe id="Prlqn" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Prlqn/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>A labor agreement that handicaps players</h2>
<p>This discrepancy between value and salary is due, in part, to <a href="http://www.mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5450407.pdf">the current labor agreement</a> between players and ownership. Last negotiated in <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Collective_bargaining_agreement">2016</a>, it has long resulted in a compensation structure that disproportionately favors established veterans.</p>
<p>Here’s the gist of how it works: For the first six years of a player’s career – starting when he’s first promoted to the major leagues – the team that drafted him has exclusive negotiating rights. That player makes the league minimum in his first three years. During seasons four, five and six, he makes 40 percent, 60 percent and 80 percent, respectively, of what he would make on the open market – a number determined by an <a href="https://library.fangraphs.com/business/mlb-salary-arbitration-rules/">arbitration panel</a> if the player and front office can’t agree.</p>
<p>Only after a full six years of service in the majors can he become a free agent – at which point he can negotiate with all 30 teams. This competition should drive his salary up and explains why players over 30 years old tend to make the most money.</p>
<p>But the pay differential between a player who can negotiate with other teams and a player who cannot is so enormous that teams are incentivized to do everything in their power to keep a player from accruing a full six years of service time until it’s absolutely necessary. </p>
<p>Just a few weeks spent in the minors can prevent a player from hitting a full year of service time, so it’s become common practice for teams to either leave a player in the minors at the start of the season or to “yo-yo” a player between the minors and majors <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/3/7/18254501/service-time-manipulation-vladimir-guerrero-jr-fernando-tatis-jr-peter-alonso">just long enough to squeeze out a seventh year</a>. Teams have <a href="https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/houston-astros-jon-singleton-contract-prospects-jose-altuve-george-springer-dominguez-031915">also started</a> to offer long-term, below-market contract extensions to players well before free agency – <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/white-sox-nearing-extension-with-eloy-jimenez.html">sometimes before they even play a major league game</a> – using the <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/06/baseball-broshuis-minor-league-wage-income/">sub-poverty wages</a> of minor league baseball to all but coerce a player into signing away his most marketable years.</p>
<h2>The gap between winners and losers grows</h2>
<p>Because teams have become well aware that most players’ skills decline once they hit free agency, they’ve been less and less likely to offer free agents lucrative contracts. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/biggest-mlb-contracts-in-history-where-mike-trout-bryce-harper-manny-machado-deals-rank/">Superstars</a> like Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout still make money. But a far greater number of less productive veterans lose out; their best years, after all, are behind them.</p>
<p>The veterans that manage to find work end up doing so on shorter contracts for lower annual value than they might’ve seen even a few seasons prior. Other players are absolutely good enough to crack an MLB roster but now go unsigned entirely.</p>
<p>The problem is so bad that a general manager could have put together a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2019/01/19/mlb-free-agents-manny-machado-bryce-harper/2617212002/">competitive team</a> with the free agents on the market before the beginning of this year’s spring training, while All-Stars like <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keuchda01.shtml">Dallas Keuchel</a> and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimbrcr01.shtml">Craig Kimbrel</a> remained unsigned as of March 20.</p>
<p>That’s the point, though: A competitive team isn’t the goal. Either a team wins, or it doesn’t, and the chance to receive higher draft picks incentivizes not winning.</p>
<p>Essentially, most teams look at more sophisticated versions of the previous graphs to determine a “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/11/sports/baseball/spring-training-major-league-teams.html">competitive window</a>” in which they can lump all their young talent onto the field simultaneously.</p>
<p>The age of a typical free agent – and the length and cost of a typical free agent contract – make signing him a losing proposition for most teams. If a team does decide to wade into free agency, it’ll only be when that team believes a few players are the difference between making or missing the playoffs.</p>
<p>The result? MLB is sorting itself into haves and have-nots. There are more super teams trying to win by beating up growing numbers of teams trying to tank. One could credibly point to roughly one-third of teams in the league on Opening Day and claim they’re not trying to win in 2019.</p>
<p>The graph below looks at how varied the records of teams have been over time, a sort of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient">Gini coefficient</a> – a measure used to determine income inequality – for baseball. </p>
<p>A low value in any given season suggests that there were relatively few teams that stood out from the pack – good or bad. A high value in any given season suggests that there were relatively few mediocre teams and instead a great number of exceptionally good or exceptionally bad ones.</p>
<p><iframe id="mJLqE" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mJLqE/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Last season marked the highest gap between haves and have-nots in the last quarter century.</p>
<p>That behavior makes sense for individual teams, but it’s bad news for the league. A great way to lose fans is to lose for seasons on end. <a href="https://cupola.gettysburg.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1000&context=mathfac">Several</a> <a href="http://web.mst.edu/%7Edavismc/attendance%20var.pdf">analyses</a> <a href="http://thesportjournal.org/article/attendance-still-matters-in-mlb-the-relationship-with-winning-percentage/">have shown</a> that a team’s ability to win is highly correlated with a team’s attendance. This shouldn’t shock anyone: It’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_(film)#Plot">literally the plot</a> of the classic movie “Major League.”</p>
<p>While each team is acting in its own self-interest, the collective trend is problematic. Whether through alienating fans or forcing a labor dispute, there’s reason to believe the league is headed for trouble.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113094/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Felder does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Roughly one-third of the league won’t be trying to win this season. What’s fueling this trend?Adam Felder, Director of Data Analytics, Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/954202018-04-23T10:41:45Z2018-04-23T10:41:45ZAneurysm strikes baseball pitcher, but why? A neurosurgeon explains the mysterious condition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215822/original/file-20180422-75114-mzr2e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Danny Farquhar's fellow relief pitchers hung up Farquhar's jersey in the Chicago White Sox bullpen on April 21, 2018, to show their support.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Astros-White-Sox-Baseball/9b5a4e5f7ef2418a8cf5f51a3eee4395/1/0">AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Chicago White Sox relief pitcher Danny Farquhar, 31, suffered a brain hemorrhage in the White Sox dugout after throwing 15 pitches Friday night, April 20, devastating his family, teammates and fans. The cause was a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/21/sports/danny-farquhar-white-sox-brain-hemorrhage.html">ruptured brain aneurysm</a>, according to reports. Farquhar is in critical condition at Rush University Medical Center. </p>
<p>I am a neurosurgeon who operates on patients who have suffered ruptured brain aneursysms, and I also study the causes and treatments for them. I see life changed in an instant for far too many people. </p>
<p>There is no evidence that brain aneurysm is related to traumatic brain injury. So how is it, many may wonder, that a young athlete in phenomenal shape could suddenly develop a deadly condition? </p>
<h2>From out of the blue</h2>
<p>An <a href="http://www.heart.org/HEARTORG/Conditions/VascularHealth/AorticAneurysm/What-is-an-Aneurysm_UCM_454435_Article.jsp#.WhRBpWXSd-U">aneurysm</a> is a weak spot on the wall of an artery. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195712/original/file-20171121-6027-1ocn8eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195712/original/file-20171121-6027-1ocn8eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195712/original/file-20171121-6027-1ocn8eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195712/original/file-20171121-6027-1ocn8eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195712/original/file-20171121-6027-1ocn8eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195712/original/file-20171121-6027-1ocn8eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195712/original/file-20171121-6027-1ocn8eb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An aneurysm occurs in a weak spot in the wall of an artery. Sometimes, that weak spot expands, almost like a water balloon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/blood-vessels-brain-aneurysm-on-background-625626620">Designua/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Brain Aneurysm Foundation estimates that <a href="https://www.bafound.org/about-brain-aneurysms/brain-aneurysm-basics/brain-aneurysm-statistics-and-facts/">6 million people</a>, or 1 in 50, have an unruptured brain aneurysm. Aneurysms can be detected by imaging, but screening imaging is not recommended unless there are symptoms or there is a strong family history of brain aneurysms. Over time, the weak spot expands almost like a water balloon. If it keeps expanding, it will eventually reach a breaking point and burst. The <a href="http://www.heart.org/HEARTORG/Conditions/VascularHealth/AorticAneurysm/What-is-an-Aneurysm_UCM_454435_Article.jsp#.WhRBpWXSd-U">causes</a> are largely unknown. Some may be hereditary. </p>
<p>Aneurysms can form anywhere in the body, but brain aneurysms occur in the blood vessels of the brain, usually at the base. Aneurysms tend to form at branching points where blood vessels diverge.</p>
<p>Brain aneurysms affect young and old, rich and poor, those with a family history of aneurysms and those without. </p>
<p>They typically strike without warning, and 50 percent of the time prove fatal, throwing families into shock and sudden grief. Four out of 5 people who suffer a brain aneurysm have no family history of it. There is some indication in the research that <a href="http://www.heart.org/HEARTORG/Conditions/VascularHealth/AorticAneurysm/What-is-an-Aneurysm_UCM_454435_Article.jsp#.WhRBpWXSd-U">smoking puts you at higher risk</a>, and that aneurysms disproportionately affect women.</p>
<p>But no one knows for sure what causes brain aneurysms, which affect up to 5 percent of Americans and result in 30,000 cases of ruptured aneurysms each year.</p>
<p>Symptoms of a brain aneurysm include headaches, double vision, vision changes, seizures or other neurological changes.</p>
<p>The real problem occurs when the aneurysm ruptures.</p>
<p>Patients with a <a href="http://www.heart.org/HEARTORG/Conditions/VascularHealth/AorticAneurysm/What-is-an-Aneurysm_UCM_454435_Article.jsp#.WhRBpWXSd-U">ruptured aneurysm</a> experience bleeding in the brain called sub-arachnoid hemorrhage, which is a type of stroke. Such patients may feel an overpowering “thunderclap” headache. They may die suddenly or be found comatose. When a patient has a ruptured aneurysm, we try to treat it so that it doesn’t rupture again. If it ruptures a second time, there is an 80 percent chance of death.</p>
<h2>A devastating disorder</h2>
<p>The statistics for this devastating disorder are grim: When a brain aneurysm ruptures, there is a <a href="https://www.bafound.org/about-brain-aneurysms/brain-aneurysm-basics/brain-aneurysm-statistics-and-facts/">15 percent chance of death</a> before even getting to a hospital. Of those who survive, there is a 30 to 50 percent chance of permanent disability, ranging from severe brain damage to more mild cognitive difficulties. Many are unable to return to work.</p>
<p>Current research in the field of cerebral aneurysm points to inflammation as a possible cause for aneurysms to arise. </p>
<p>Patients diagnosed with an unruptured aneurysm often learn of it incidentally. Maybe they came in for double vision or headaches. Maybe it was cranial nerve palsy, or, in rare cases, a seizure.</p>
<p>Patients with a diagnosed aneurysm may undergo surgery. This involves opening the skull and pinching off the aneurysm with a metal clip. Or they may receive endovascular treatment, in which I and other surgeons thread a small tube through an artery in the leg all the way up to the brain to fill the inside of the aneurysm with soft packing wires called coils. Or, we place a stent, a metal mesh tube. </p>
<p>My goal is to identify the cause – and to pursue preventative and therapeutic treatments.</p>
<h2>Brings back memories of Konrad Reuland</h2>
<p>Farquhar’s ruptured aneurysm is a painful reminder of the tragic death of another professional athlete, Konrad Reuland. </p>
<p>As I and others hope for the best for Farquhar, I am reminded of Reuland, whose life became forever linked with baseball Hall of Famer Rod Carew in December 2016. <a href="http://beta.latimes.com/sports/angels/la-sp-rod-carew-heart-20170415-story.html">Carew, who needed a new heart, received Reuland’s</a>. Reuland suffered a brain aneurysm on Nov. 26, 2016. He died Dec. 12, 2016.</p>
<p>Medical experts and sports historians believed the surgery that saved Carew’s life to be the first heart transplant operation between two major league athletes. The story of Reuland’s gift and Carew’s recovery touched the hearts of fans across the country. </p>
<p>Reuland’s decision just a few months earlier, as a 20-something who appeared to be the very picture of health, to check the <a href="http://beta.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-rod-carew-20170418-story.html">organ-donor box</a> on a driver’s license form changed not only the course of Carew’s life but also those of two other people who received Reuland’s liver and kidney. </p>
<p>Carew, who played for the <a href="https://baseballhall.org/hof/carew-rod">Minnesota Twins</a> and California Angels and ended his career with 3,053 hits, received the other kidney. Carew had suffered a <a href="http://beta.latimes.com/sports/angels/la-sp-rod-carew-heart-20170415-story.html">major heart attack in 2015</a> and had been placed on a waiting list for a heart transplant.</p>
<p>Carew, whose jersey number was 29, did not know at the time of his Dec. 16, 2016 surgery that he was receiving Reuland’s heart. Reuland’s family did not know who the recipients of the 29-year-old’s organs would be. </p>
<p>But <a href="http://beta.latimes.com/sports/angels/la-sp-rod-carew-heart-20170415-story.html">Mary Reuland</a>, Konrad’s mother, figured out the connection between Carew and her son a few weeks later. She had read about the lifesaving heart transplant that Carew received four days after Konrad’s death, and several people had asked her if she thought Carew could have been the recipient. Curious, Mary Reuland called the organ donation network, which matched Konrad’s heart to Carew. She learned that her son’s heart was in fact the one that saved Carew’s life. The families met less than three months later, and <a href="http://beta.latimes.com/sports/angels/la-sp-rod-carew-heart-20170415-story.html">Mary Reuland listened</a> with a stethoscope to her son’s beating heart inside Carew’s chest. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195734/original/file-20171121-6031-v0yckk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195734/original/file-20171121-6031-v0yckk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195734/original/file-20171121-6031-v0yckk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195734/original/file-20171121-6031-v0yckk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195734/original/file-20171121-6031-v0yckk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195734/original/file-20171121-6031-v0yckk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195734/original/file-20171121-6031-v0yckk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rod Carew and Mary Reuland, Konrad’s mother, at a news conference in Anaheim, Calif., in April 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Rod-Carew-Surgery-Baseball/e1c3a2f8c9224f1386bacc67dea54b82/21/0">AP Photo/Chris Carlson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a medical professional and sports fan, I was deeply moved by these events. </p>
<p>But as a neurosurgeon who specializes in brain aneurysm, I also am deeply saddened to see the toll that aneurysms can take. I am hoping and searching for ways to identify the cause – and to pursue preventative and therapeutic treatments.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95420/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Hoh, MD receives funding from the National Institute of Health and the Brain Aneurysm Foundation to conduct brain aneurysm research. He is affiliated with the Brain Aneurysm Foundation, the Congress of Neurological Surgeons, the American Association of Neurological Surgeons, the Society of Neurological Surgeons, the American Academy of Neurological Surgery, the Society for Neurointerventional Surgery, and the American Heart Association.</span></em></p>How could an otherwise healthy professional baseball pitcher suffer a devastating brain hemorrhage? A neurosurgeon who studies aneurysms explains their unpredictability.Brian Hoh, Professor of Neurosurgery, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/940682018-03-28T20:44:16Z2018-03-28T20:44:16ZBaseball teams need to protect fans from foul balls – and US courts need to lift MLB’s special liability exemption<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212507/original/file-20180328-109182-1y0kp1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Close call?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Morry Gash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tens of thousands of fans are gathering at Major League Baseball ballparks around the country for hot dogs, home runs, their favorite players’ autographs and the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04KQydlJ-qc">fresh grass on the field</a>.</p>
<p>Few fans will consider the possibility that they could be blinded or suffer a serious head injury by a ball or bat leaving the field of play. In reality, such injuries occur much more frequently than many may realize, with a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-09-09/baseball-caught-looking-as-fouls-injure-1-750-fans-a-year">2014 analysis</a> finding that more than 1,750 fans are hurt each year by batted balls at MLB games. </p>
<p>Who should be held responsible legally when injuries like this occur? </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3143732">new paper</a>, University of Georgia business student Zachary Flagel and I argue that it’s time for courts to abolish an outdated rule that has historically immunized baseball teams from liability.</p>
<h2>The ‘Baseball Rule’</h2>
<p>Under a century-old legal doctrine commonly known as the “<a href="http://scholarship.law.marquette.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1612&context=sportslaw">Baseball Rule</a>,” U.S. <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/09/21/new-york-yankees-netting-ballpark-injury">courts have almost uniformly</a> held that professional baseball teams are not liable for <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Death-Ballpark-Comprehensive-Game-Related-Professional/dp/078643435X">these kinds of injuries</a> to fans, who are stuck with the medical and rehab costs. </p>
<p>Specifically, as long as a team takes basic precautions such as putting nets immediately behind home plate and ensuring that there are enough screened seats to meet anticipated demand, then under the Baseball Rule it will not be held legally responsible for fans’ injuries. </p>
<p>Instead, courts have traditionally held that the danger posed by foul balls is sufficiently obvious and that fans legally assume the risk of any resulting injuries. </p>
<p><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3143732">Our research shows</a> that changes in the way that the sport of baseball is presented to fans, as well as in the underlying law of torts, undermine the courts’ continued reliance on the Baseball Rule. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212508/original/file-20180328-109196-13hf7q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212508/original/file-20180328-109196-13hf7q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212508/original/file-20180328-109196-13hf7q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212508/original/file-20180328-109196-13hf7q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212508/original/file-20180328-109196-13hf7q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212508/original/file-20180328-109196-13hf7q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212508/original/file-20180328-109196-13hf7q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A young fan holds his hands to his face after being hit by a foul ball in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Closer, stronger, faster</h2>
<p>We found that many changes in the game in recent decades have considerably increased the risks that foul balls pose to fans.</p>
<p>Perhaps most significantly, fans attending MLB games today are now sitting about 20 percent closer to the field than they were even just 50 years ago. Much of this change has occurred over the last 25 years in particular, as a wave of new stadiums have placed fans ever closer to the action.</p>
<p>At the same time, baseball players are throwing and hitting the ball harder than ever before due to better strength and conditioning regimens. As a result, foul balls are frequently hit into the stands <a href="https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/908145691104628736">at 110 miles per hour</a> or more. Fans may have only a few tenths of a second to react to a particularly fast-moving foul ball, in some cases literally making it <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26097821">physically impossible</a> for a spectator to avoid injury.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212513/original/file-20180328-109199-hilays.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212513/original/file-20180328-109199-hilays.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212513/original/file-20180328-109199-hilays.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212513/original/file-20180328-109199-hilays.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212513/original/file-20180328-109199-hilays.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212513/original/file-20180328-109199-hilays.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212513/original/file-20180328-109199-hilays.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Miami Marlins batter Giancarlo Stanton breaks his bat while hitting a foul ball in 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/J Pat Carter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The role of tort law</h2>
<p>While these changes themselves undercut courts’ continued reliance on the Baseball Rule, the doctrine is also at odds with <a href="https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/journal_articles/1875/">recent academic insights</a> regarding the most efficient allocation of liability in tort lawsuits, which involve personal injuries.</p>
<p>Courts and scholars increasingly realize that legal liability should be imposed on the party that is in the best position to prevent the injury on the most cost-effective basis.</p>
<p>In the case of foul balls and broken bats, there is little question that the team itself is best positioned to prevent these resulting injuries. While fans may not be able to react quickly enough to avoid injury, teams easily can protect them through installing more protective netting. </p>
<p>Indeed, at <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article27539521.html">US$8,000 to $12,000 per 60 feet</a>, the cost of such additional netting is a drop in the bucket for MLB – with its <a href="https://nypost.com/2017/10/24/yankee-fan-hit-in-the-face-by-foul-ball-loses-injury-lawsuit/">annual league revenues</a> of over $10 billion. In addition, that small expense pales in comparison to the medical costs of a single serious foul-ball injury, which can easily account for $150,000 or more in medical costs.</p>
<p>To its credit, in recent years MLB <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-issues-recommendations-on-netting/c-159233076">has encouraged</a> its teams to install additional protective netting to better protect fans sitting near the field. However, the fact that MLB itself has acknowledged that fans sitting in areas beyond those immediately behind home plate are at a heightened risk of injury only serves to underscore how outdated the Baseball Rule has become. </p>
<p>And while MLB’s actions in this regard are laudable, because the league’s teams remain legally devoid of any potential responsibility for spectator injuries, there is no guarantee that they are doing enough to protect all fans sitting in high-risk areas.</p>
<h2>The right incentives to reduce injuries</h2>
<p>The time has come for the judiciary to dispense with the Baseball Rule. </p>
<p>I believe that courts should hold professional baseball teams liable whenever a fan is injured by a foul ball, giving teams a better incentive to provide the most effective level of possible protection. By forcing teams to compensate spectators for their injuries, teams would be more likely to engage in a cost-benefit analysis to decide whether the risk of injury in a particular section of seating outweighs the cost – including potential lost ticket sales – of installing a net between fans and the playing field. </p>
<p>In the highest-risk sections, teams will almost certainly determine that the benefits of additional screening outweigh the costs. In lower-risk sections, however, teams could reasonably decide to accommodate fans preferring an unobstructed view of the field, on the understanding that the team would then be liable in the rare case when a fan sitting in such a section sustains an injury.</p>
<p>This season, more than <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2017/10/02/final-2017-mlb-attendance-dips-below-73-million-for-first-time-since-2002/#48989b72326f">110 million fans</a> are likely to attend a major-league or minor-league baseball game. For several thousand of these fans, an otherwise enjoyable trip to the ballpark will be disrupted by a serious injury inflicted by a foul ball or broken bat leaving the field of play. The judiciary has the ability to encourage baseball teams to take steps to better protect spectators from these injuries. They should do so by discarding the Baseball Rule.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94068/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathaniel Grow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A century-old legal doctrine has protected MLB teams from liability, when a fans gets injured by a foul ball. New research shows why it’s time that changed.Nathaniel Grow, Associate Professor of Business Law and Ethics, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/936292018-03-27T10:43:27Z2018-03-27T10:43:27ZBabe Ruth in a kimono – how baseball diplomacy has fortified Japan-US relations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212686/original/file-20180329-189827-8ml57z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fans plead for an autograph from Shohei Ohtani, Major League Baseball's newest Japanese import.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Angels-Preview-Baseball/11a1ba2b485d4be4a25b3918c8d752de/9/0">Chris Carlson/AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Feb. 9, 2001, an American submarine, the USS Greenville, surfaced beneath the Ehime Maru, a Japanese ship filled with high school students who were training to become fishermen. The ship sank, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/03/20/us/sailor-admits-not-reporting-japanese-boat.html">and nine students and teachers died</a>. </p>
<p>Had a Japanese submarine surfaced beneath a North Korean ship and sank it, the two nations might have gone to war.</p>
<p>But in this case, U.S. and Japanese officials were able to turn to a familiar diplomatic tool: baseball. To honor the victims, they formed <a href="http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2002/Oct/25/ln/ln26a.html">a youth baseball tournament</a> that takes place each year, with the location alternating between Shikoku and Hawaii. </p>
<p>The role of baseball in Japanese-U.S. diplomacy has a long and rich history. After American educator <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/03/28/291421915/japanese-baseball-began-on-my-familys-farm-in-maine">Horace Wilson</a> and railway engineer <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=DRV3CQAAQBAJ&lpg=PT20&ots=bKMzX4DOUF&dq=Hiroshi%20Hiraoka%20baseball&pg=PT20#v=onepage&q=Hiroshi%20Hiraoka%20baseball&f=false">Hiroshi Hiraoka</a> introduced the sport to the Japanese people in the 1870s, it flourished. With time, the sport has been a unifier, bringing together the people of two nations with vastly divergent histories and cultures. </p>
<p>Goodwill tours first began in the early 1900s, when Japanese and American college baseball teams competed against one another. Professional teams soon followed. While World War II interrupted the cultural exchange, baseball has served as a healing mechanism since the end of the war, helping the two geopolitical foes become loyal allies.</p>
<p>As a Fulbright scholar in Japan, I studied the role baseball played in the diplomatic relationship between Japan and the U.S. I’ve identified six key moments in this unique history. </p>
<h2>The Babe wins hearts and minds</h2>
<p>In 1934, though the clouds of war were looming, Babe Ruth and his American teammates embarked on an 18-game tour of Japan. </p>
<p>Swatting 13 home runs, waving American and Japanese flags, clowning with kids and <a href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/yokohoma-japan-geisha-girls-become-babe-ruth-fans-babe-ruth-made-as-picture-id515422162">even donning a kimono</a>, the Babe <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=V_yamtWy9sgC&lpg=PP1&dq=banzai%20babe&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false">won the hearts and minds of the Japanese people</a>. </p>
<p>Today, Ruth’s statue stands in the Sendai Zoo. It was on that very spot – considered sacred by some – where the great Yankees slugger’s first home run in Japan landed. </p>
<p>When the team returned to the U.S., Connie Mack, owner and manager of the Philadelphia Athletics, proclaimed that the two countries would never go to war. </p>
<p>“There was strong anti-American feeling throughout Japan,” <a href="https://sabr.org/research/babe-ruth-and-eiji-sawamura">Mack told reporters</a>, “and then Babe Ruth smacked a home run, and all the ill feeling and underground war sentiment vanished just like that!”</p>
<p>Unfortunately, seven years after Ruth’s visit, Mack would be proven wrong.</p>
<h2>Lefty to the rescue</h2>
<p>In 1949, four years after the end of World War II, <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/japan-reconstruction">American troops were still occupying Japan</a>. </p>
<p>General Douglas MacArthur, the Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers, was charged with overseeing the postwar occupation and rebuilding efforts. With food shortages and homelessness a recurring issue – and complaints about some culturally insensitive troops – he became concerned about anti-American sentiment and feared a communist insurgency.</p>
<p>MacArthur, who had played baseball as a cadet at West Point, understood the cultural importance of the sport to both countries. As a way to ease tensions, <a href="http://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/university-of-nebraska-press/9780803290969/">he summoned former MLB star Lefty O’Doul</a>, who had become the manager of the minor league San Francisco Seals. The Japanese people were already familiar with O'Doul: He had played during the 1931 tour, persuaded Ruth to go to Japan in 1934 and helped launch a Japanese professional league in 1936.</p>
<p>The Seals would become the first American baseball team to play in Japan since Ruth’s tour, and their 10-game tour drew 500,000 fans, including 14,000 war orphans at a game against an American military all-star team. Emperor Hirohito even met with O’Doul to thank him and the Seals. </p>
<p>MacArthur <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/remarkable-lefty-odoul-detailed-in-new-book/c-228451400">would later say</a> that O’Doul’s tour was the greatest example of diplomacy he had ever seen. Today, O’Doul is one of only three Americans in the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame.</p>
<h2>Wally Yonamine ‘integrates’ Japanese baseball</h2>
<p>In the early 1950s, several Japanese team owners began to explore the feasibility of recruiting American baseball players, hoping an infusion of American talent could elevate the quality of play.</p>
<p>However, there was still some concern about lingering hostility from the war, and owners worried that fans wouldn’t take kindly to rooting for “pure American” ballplayers. Matsutaro Shoriki, the owner of the Tokyo Yomiuri Giants, reached out to his good friend, Lefty O'Doul, for advice. </p>
<p>After consulting with the U.S. State Department, O'Doul <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3419601-wally-yonamine">recommended Wally Yonamine</a>. The Japanese-American spoke no Japanese and was initially subjected to racist taunts.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, as the first American to “integrate” Japanese baseball after World War II, he would change Japanese baseball forever: Between 1951 and 2017, more than 300 American players would follow Yonamine’s lead and sign with Japanese ball clubs. </p>
<p>Yonamine’s arrival in Japan also coincided with the signing of the 1951 peace treaty that ended U.S. occupation of Japan in 1952. </p>
<h2>The Giants poach a player</h2>
<p>In 1964, left-handed relief pitcher <a href="http://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/university-of-nebraska-press/9780803255210/">Masanori Murakami</a> was sent to the United States by the Nankai Hawks for special instruction from the San Francisco Giants. Assigned to the Giants’ minor league affiliate in Fresno, California, Murakami was scheduled to return to the Hawks in June. But he ended up staying on with the Giants when the Hawks never summoned him home.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212012/original/file-20180326-159081-va7av3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212012/original/file-20180326-159081-va7av3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212012/original/file-20180326-159081-va7av3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212012/original/file-20180326-159081-va7av3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212012/original/file-20180326-159081-va7av3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212012/original/file-20180326-159081-va7av3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212012/original/file-20180326-159081-va7av3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212012/original/file-20180326-159081-va7av3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Masanori Murakami is the first native-born Japanese player to play for an American major league team.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-Associated-Press-Sports-Professional-Bas-/1064f66652a94ed28c4dd963679b09f4/6/0">John Rooney/AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By September, the Giants were in the heat of a pennant race and needed to replenish their depleted pitching staff. So they called up Murakami from the minor leagues, and the Japanese southpaw was so effective in his short stint with the Giants that they wanted him to stay on with the team. By the end of the season, they claimed they owned the rights to his contract.</p>
<p>Nippon Professional Baseball protested, and although a compromise was reached – with Murakami being permitted to stay one more year with the Giants before returning to Japan permanently – no Japanese players would be allowed to come to the U.S. for more than 30 years. </p>
<p>Japanese team owners were well aware of what happened to the Negro Leagues after MLB clubs started poaching their best players. Jackie Robinson joined the Dodgers in 1947; <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negro_league_baseball#End_of_the_Negro_leagues">by 1958, they had dissolved</a>.</p>
<h2>‘The Tornado’ eases economic tensions</h2>
<p>In the 1980s, Japan’s economy <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/weekinreview/19impoco.html">went into overdrive</a>. By 1990, Japan had passed the U.S. in per capita GNP, and many Americans began to resent their success. Japanese investors were gobbling up icons of American business like Rockefeller Center and Universal Studios, while auto workers smashed Toyota cars to protest Japanese trade policy. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CNvWoMrS-m8?wmode=transparent&start=40" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">News coverage of a Toyota being smashed in Detroit.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1995, finding a loophole in his contract, right-handed pitcher Hideo Nomo declared himself “retired” at age 26 and signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent. Many of his countrymen viewed Nomo as a traitor, and there were rumors that <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2010/10/10/baseball/japanese-baseball/contract-loophole-opened-door-for-nomos-jump/">his father had stopped speaking to him</a>.</p>
<p>But Nomo became an instant star. With a corkscrew windup that flummoxed hitters, “The Tornado” was named the starting pitcher for the 1995 All-Star game and won the Rookie of the Year award. Nomo’s success in the states softened the backlash back home, and Japanese baseball fans ended up embracing him.</p>
<h2>The posting fee is implemented</h2>
<p>Yet as more and more Japanese players followed Nomo to Major League Baseball, Nippon Professional Baseball owners were rightfully concerned about losing their “national assets” and receiving nothing in return. So in 1999, they worked in concert with Major League Baseball to establish a “posting fee” system. </p>
<p>In short, a Japanese team can “post” a player who wants to play stateside; MLB teams then bid for the rights to negotiate with the player. This compromise apparently satisfied the Japanese, while forcing MLB teams to be more selective in pursuing Japanese ballplayers. </p>
<p>Some of the more notable players to join MLB clubs via the posting system include Ichiro Suzuki, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Kenta Maeda. The most recent arrival is Shohei Ohtani. After the 2017 season, the Los Angeles Angels paid a US$20 million posting fee to Ohtani’s former team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, and gave Ohtani a $2.3 million signing bonus. </p>
<p>In an ironic twist, Ohtani, like Babe Ruth, is talented as a pitcher and a hitter. With the Angels, he’s been able to do both – a fitting echo to the legacy of the superstar who became one of baseball’s leading diplomats.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93629/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Wisensale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The effects of war, economic tension and accidental deaths have been mitigated by a sport that both cultures treasure.Steven Wisensale, Professor of Public Policy, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/756862017-04-03T20:30:20Z2017-04-03T20:30:20ZBaseball season begins: Five essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163708/original/image-20170403-21938-1diqwzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of the grounds crew spray the field before the Opening Day game between the Washington Nationals and the Miami Marlins.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Marlins-Nationals-Baseball/2a2920e1920c4032826586a3eda5d137/34/0">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball,” National Baseball Hall of Fame second baseman Rogers Hornsby <a href="http://www.baseball-almanac.com/quotes/quohorn.shtml">once said</a>. “I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.”</p>
<p>For baseball fans across the country, the moment has come. But while Opening Day kicks off a 162-game season that has its fair share of drama on the field, what happens off the field can be just as interesting. Our writers, in this compilation of previously published articles, tell baseball stories that involve architecture, the media, politics, race and health.</p>
<h2>Take me out to the ballgame (or not)</h2>
<p>If you’re lucky enough to score tickets to a game this week, take a moment to check out the design of your home team’s stadium. Allison Mast and Kevin Murphy detail baseball’s stadium renaissance over the past three decades, and how <a href="https://theconversation.com/stadium-design-baseballs-saving-grace-43101">one company played a key role</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Populous, a Kansas City-based architecture firm, has been at the forefront of this movement. The firm is responsible for 17 of the 30 ballparks currently in use by major league teams. Some of their more successful projects have brought new life to watching baseball games in person, thanks in part to their contextualized approach to design – the idea that the architecture and design of ballparks should be influenced by their locations.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Even if you can’t make it to the ballpark, you’ll be able to easily listen or watch your favorite team on the radio or TV. Don’t take this luxury for granted: As communication professor Jim Walker explains, when radio broadcasts were first introduced, the new technology created sharp divisions among baseball owners. He tells <a href="https://theconversation.com/nearly-100-years-ago-baseball-almost-banned-broadcasts-38150">the story of the battle between pro- and anti-radio factions</a> that almost led to the sport banning the new medium:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“While radio’s popularity couldn’t be denied, half of baseball’s barons – mostly located along the East Coast – viewed radio as a fifth estate thief, robbing them of paying customers at the gate. And in this era, the gate was everything.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A messy racial legacy</h2>
<p>This season marks the 70th anniversary of Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier. In the short version of the story, Brooklyn Dodgers executive Branch Rickey gets credit for going against the wishes of most owners to desegregate the game. But according to journalism professor Chris Lamb, Robinson’s signing was actually <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-politics-played-a-major-role-in-the-signing-of-jackie-robinson-56890">the culmination of a long campaign</a> waged by the left-wing press, labor unions and progressive politicians:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The Communist newspaper The Daily Worker began campaigning for integration in baseball shortly after Jesse Owens won four gold medals at the 1936 Summer Olympics in Berlin…. At the same time, labor unions organized picket lines and petition drives outside major league ballparks, collecting more than a million signatures.”</p>
</blockquote>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163732/original/image-20170403-21969-eb0uto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163732/original/image-20170403-21969-eb0uto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163732/original/image-20170403-21969-eb0uto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163732/original/image-20170403-21969-eb0uto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163732/original/image-20170403-21969-eb0uto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163732/original/image-20170403-21969-eb0uto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163732/original/image-20170403-21969-eb0uto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163732/original/image-20170403-21969-eb0uto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Jackie Robinson is shown at Ebbets Field in April 1947.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Associated-Press-Sports-New-York-United-States-/6a944a1dfce6da11af9f0014c2589dfb/28/0">Associated Press</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Robinson’s landmark 1947 season didn’t end baseball’s race problem. In a different piece, Lamb tells the story of an all-black Charleston, South Carolina Little League team that thought they’d be competing in the 1955 Little League World Series – <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-bigotry-crushed-the-dreams-of-an-all-black-little-league-team-63484">only to have their dreams dashed</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“When I was a journalism professor at the College of Charleston, I first learned about how the presence of a single black all-star team was enough to cause one of the biggest crises in Little League history. The white teams in South Carolina refused to play against them. Hundreds of Southern white teams left Little League Baseball in protest and joined a segregated youth baseball organization. More than 60 years later, to many former Cannon Street players, the lost opportunity still stings.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Playing it safe</h2>
<p>As the MLB season kicks off, kids across the country will also be suiting up for their local Little League team. Some coaches and parents, however, might be nervous about an ailment in young pitchers that has become more common in recent years: arm injuries. </p>
<p>Kinesiologist Sakiko Oyama describes why the unnatural motion of throwing a baseball creates so much stress on the shoulder and elbow joints, why young pitchers have become especially vulnerable, <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-video-technology-help-prevent-injuries-in-young-pitchers-40063">and how research she conducted may offer some tips</a> for how to prevent added stress on developing arms:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“My colleagues and I wondered if there were certain unknown ‘tells’ in the pitching motion. In our recent research, we focused on pitchers’ trunk movement pattern – which can be identified using video recordings – and studied whether the movement pattern is linked to increased joint loading.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If you want your kid to be the next Zack Greinke (and not become <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/10114185/mark-prior-retiring-injury-filled-career">another Mark Prior</a>), you might want to take some notes.</p>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75686/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The national pastime is more than just a sport. In this roundup, we feature stories about baseball’s relationship to race, politics, the media and health.Nick Lehr, Arts + Culture EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/684252016-12-01T18:47:06Z2016-12-01T18:47:06ZWhy people love to delude themselves with sports rituals and superstitions<p>What do <a href="http://www.nba.com/video/channels/playoffs/finals/2016/06/22/lebron-james-big-block-on-iggy-game7.nba">Lebron James</a>, a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/bloody-lucky-halfpenny-does-the-trick-for-western-bulldogs-in-grand-final-win-20161002-grt3p1.html">lucky coin</a> and a <a href="http://billygoattavern.com/legend/curse/">smelly goat</a> have in common? They are all part of a rich tradition of sports superstitions.</p>
<p>Both athletes and fans alike have looked towards these superstitions, rituals and curses for explanations about failures and successes. What is the science behind the belief that external forces can affect the outcome of a game? </p>
<p>As a psychologist who conducts research into <a href="http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=222832684890834;res=IELHSS">superstition</a> and gambling-related cultural beliefs, I have studied many theories, rituals, and quirks inherent in our ideas about <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/BF03342117">winning and losing</a>.</p>
<p>I’ve interviewed gamblers about <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/2195-3007-3-9">their worldviews</a> and found their personal beliefs about luck and winning can be explained by the illusion of control, the gambler’s fallacy, and beliefs in luck and supernatural force.</p>
<h2>The end of a curse</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/">Chicago Cubs</a> won baseball’s <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/207938228/chicago-cubs-win-2016-world-series/?topicid=148481184">World Series</a> this year for the first time since 1908. The 108-year-old drought was the longest in American professional sports.</p>
<p>When it comes to sports superstitions, the Cubs had arguably the richest and most colourful collection of <a href="http://www.livescience.com/32802-are-the-chicago-cubs-really-cursed.html">curses</a>. The best known of these is the <a href="http://billygoattavern.com/legend/curse/">Curse of the Billy Goat</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147105/original/image-20161123-19717-1kp45zi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147105/original/image-20161123-19717-1kp45zi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147105/original/image-20161123-19717-1kp45zi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147105/original/image-20161123-19717-1kp45zi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147105/original/image-20161123-19717-1kp45zi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=744&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147105/original/image-20161123-19717-1kp45zi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147105/original/image-20161123-19717-1kp45zi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147105/original/image-20161123-19717-1kp45zi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=935&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">William</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/guano/3445082392">Flickr/John</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>The curse was allegedly cast during the 1945 World Series by fan Billy Sianis after he was ejected from the Cub’s Wrigley Field homeground in Chicago because others complained about the smell of his pet goat. The Cubs would not reach the World Series again for more than <a href="http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/chc/history/postseason_results.jsp">70 years</a>.</p>
<p>Our attempts to control the most uncontrollable of events are reflected in the work of cultural anthropologist, <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Magic_Science_and_Religion_and_Other_Ess.html?id=wlF-CgAAQBAJ&source=kp_cover&redir_esc=y&hl=en">Bronislaw Malinowski</a>.</p>
<h2>Rituals and superstitions</h2>
<p>Malinowski found that Melanesia’s Trobriand Islanders used rituals and superstitions to gain imaginary control over events that had uncertain outcomes, but did not use rituals at other times.</p>
<p>Trobriand Islanders practised rituals to soothe the gods of the ocean and pray for a bountiful catch before venturing out to rough waters beyond the safety of the coral reefs, for example, but performed no rituals or prayers for when fishing in bountiful tide pools where their results were guaranteed. </p>
<p>In baseball, players have direct control over the game, to some extent, by choosing certain plays or strategies. Yet player rituals and superstitions are common, including tugging uniform sleeves in a certain way, tapping the home plate three times, kissing a religious necklace, or touching the brim of a helmet. </p>
<p>American anthropologist <a href="http://www.anth.ucsb.edu/faculty/ptaber/VC%20Fall%202016web/Gmelch%20Baseball%20Magic.pdf">George Gmelch</a>, a minor league baseball player in his younger days, was intrigued by these <a href="http://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/product/Inside-Pitch,673113.aspx">superstitions</a>. </p>
<p>He found most relate to the unpredictable and difficult skill of batting and pitching compared with the relatively easier skill of accurately catching and throwing a ball. Like the Trobriand Islanders and their fishing, players’ were using rituals to try and control uncertain outcomes. </p>
<h2>The fans</h2>
<p>Sports fans also participate in superstitions and rituals in an attempt to control the outcome of a game. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://cogprints.org/725/">evolutionary terms</a>, humans have perfected the skills of gathering and processing information in order to find regular patterns that help them predict the future outcome of events. </p>
<p>This thinking process has become so natural that sometimes sports fans watching a game at home forget that their superstitious actions in front of the TV – what beer they drink, or where they are seated – cannot possibly affect a game’s result. </p>
<p>We know that the outcome is unpredictable, if not entirely random, but we cannot help trying to influence the results by adopting some superstitious behaviour or rituals with our actions. This is a cognitive mechanism that reduces our anxiety and focuses us on the game.</p>
<p>Superstitions and rituals help create a sense of imaginary control over a game’s unpredictable outcome. </p>
<p>Fans of a winning team won’t change their behaviour or rituals for fear of disturbing the winning momentum, while those supporting a struggling team may change those viewing habits in hopes of influencing their team’s results. Sports fans, just like gamblers, believe in illusion of control.</p>
<p>This illusion of control – or an inflated confidence in our ability to win – increases without us realising it. For example, many fans learn as much as they can about the team they support, such as batting statistics of players, a coach’s history, and so on.</p>
<p>This extra knowledge leads us to overestimate our ability to predict an <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3109/10826089909039417">outcome</a>. The extra effort we invest in the activity of being a sports fan is a primary form of illusion of control. </p>
<p>A secondary illusion of control enlists supernatural sources of power or intervention such as gods, spirits, or luck to supplement our own perceived power. </p>
<h2>Fall for the fallacy</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy">gambler’s fallacy</a>, or mistakenly seeing causal connections between the past and the future performance of largely random events, can also be common among sports fans. It is the same belief gamblers have when they presume after five heads on a coin toss, the next flip is more likely to be tails. </p>
<p>We tend to think the future chance of our favourite team winning a game is greatly affected by their previous history of winning or losing when, in reality, the results of the game could be determined by many different and unrelated factors. Even when our favourite team has a losing streak, we cannot easily abandon it. </p>
<p>Cognitive dissonance – a mismatch between the emotional investment and disappointment – is resolved by changing the way we think. While we acknowledge our team did not win, we rationalise all was not completely lost. </p>
<p>We say the results would have been much worse if we had not cheered for them, for example. Or that a losing game was not that boring after all. Then we look for hopeful signs for next season, and seek social support of our fellow fans to reaffirm our resolve. </p>
<p>As for the Chicago Cubs and their curse, many wonder what finally became of Billy “Goat” Sianis? He apparently tried to remove his curse before he died in 1970 but the Cubs’ fortune did not reverse until this year. </p>
<p>And now the Cubs’ unlucky streak may have passed on to the team they defeated. <a href="http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/">The Cleveland Indians</a>, who last won a World Series in 1948, now hold the inglorious honour of having baseball’s longest title drought.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68425/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keis Ohtsuka does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many sports enthusiasts are notoriously superstitious. Why is that so?Keis Ohtsuka, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.