tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/mark-mcgowan-2823/articlesMark McGowan – The Conversation2023-09-28T10:36:54Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145692023-09-28T10:36:54Z2023-09-28T10:36:54ZGrattan on Friday: In the second half of this term Albanese will need to concentrate on delivery<p>Labor’s national landscape is changing. Daniel Andrews’ abrupt exit from the Victorian premiership this week is the latest development in a wider picture. </p>
<p>Just a few months ago, two of the strongest state Labor leaders in recent history were solidly ensconced in Western Australia and Victoria, and Labor had just taken power in New South Wales. Federally, Anthony Albanese retained most of his glow. The Voice referendum was in positive territory (although declining support presaged what was to come). </p>
<p>Now both WA’s Mark McGowan and Andrews have walked away. Federally, Labor is looking like an ordinary government. “Ordinary”, not as in “bad”, but “ordinary” in the sense of a government facing a host of problems in what are difficult times, most notably a cost-of-living crisis and what seems a cold climate for trying to achieve a significant change to the constitution. </p>
<p>Looking a year ahead, Labor will be struggling against the electoral tide in Queensland, where (on present polling) the Palaszczuk government could lose office.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk has said she is determined to stay at the helm for the election, but her leadership has been under pressure from her colleagues.</p>
<p>COVID enabled Andrews and McGowan to transcend their state stages to become national figures. Of the COVID premiers, only Palaszczuk remains (ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr is also still there). </p>
<p>The COVID era is behind us – except that Bureau of Statistics figures out this week put COVID as third among leading causes of death in 2022, behind heart disease and dementia. (In 2020, it ranked 38th; in 2021, 33rd.) That makes it all the more unfortunate Albanese has excluded, in the formal terms of reference for his COVID inquiry, the unilateral actions of state governments. </p>
<p>The changing of the guard in Victorian and WA Labor, the Queensland government’s troubles and the challenges for the Albanese government are morale boosters for the Liberals. </p>
<p>But the Liberals are a shambles in Victoria and a tiny rump in WA, so there are no early recoveries in those states. Queensland provides their bright spot at state level. Federally, the best the Dutton opposition probably could hope for at the next election would be to push Labor into minority government. </p>
<p>Albanese could never aspire to Bob Hawke’s “messiah” status. But after the 2022 election he soared high, elevated in part by people’s relief the Morrison government was gone; in political terms, the country seemed to have emerged from a black hole into the sunlight. </p>
<p>The Labor government launched into intense activity, including a plethora of reviews, and promised a better style of politics. The pace of activity continues, but inevitably political reality has set in. </p>
<p>Criticisms of the government range from overreach to underreach, achievement failing to reach ambition, corner-cutting. It comes from the right and the left and, on issues like the pursuit of emissions reduction, from both ends of the spectrum simultaneously. </p>
<p>Let’s not bypass the positives. The budget is in better shape than thought possible – partly through fortuitous circumstances, although the government stresses its finding and banking savings. Whatever the mix, there’s a surplus of $22 billion for last financial year and (despite Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ caution) surely a good prospect of a surplus this financial year. But while the budget is currently looking good, the economy is headed to slower growth. </p>
<p>Chalmers is a workhorse and has brought some changes (including the reforms of the Reserve Bank) and foreshadowed others (such as a revamp of the Productivity Commission). This week he released his employment white paper. </p>
<p>The paper is a reminder that it’s one thing to set out aspirations and directions, another to land delivery. A measure of the long-term worth of this paper will be the extent to which it does deliver jobs and extra hours to the up to 3 million people it says are seeking them. That will require effort on multiple fronts to reduce the disadvantages many of these people have.</p>
<p>The housing crisis provides an even sharper test of delivery. The government has various initiatives on the go, but the rate of construction is slow. Meanwhile an immigration rate running above an already large forecast adds to the housing pressures. </p>
<p>Labor boasts it’s implementing its election commitments. More generally, the (nearly completed) first half of the government’s first term has seen many policy announcements – the second half will need to emphasise delivery.</p>
<p>As the cost-of-living crisis grips the country, Chalmers has to fend off the popular calls for extra spending. This week brought unwelcome news on inflation, which has risen from an annual rate of 4.9% in July to 5.2% in August. That puts more attention on the Reserve Bank’s meeting next Tuesday – the first under new governor Michele Bullock – but Chalmers has played down the prospect of a rate rise. </p>
<p>Enough time has elapsed to show which ministers are good performers and who’s struggling. Transport Minister Catherine King is in the latter category. The government has still not been able to put behind it, or adequately explain, its decision to deny Qatar Airways the extra flights it sought. </p>
<p>A Senate inquiry (which the government had unsuccessfully tried to head off) this week probed the entrails of that decision, with senators giving the bosses of Qantas (favoured by the outcome) a hard time, and the government resisting providing documents. King, meanwhile, was on leave, for the school holidays. She has now been invited to appear before the committee but can’t be forced to do so. </p>
<p>The inquiry is emblematic: the Senate is becoming increasingly willing to take on the government. This is both despite and because of its progressive majority (the Greens have been poking the government bear on occasion, notably over housing). </p>
<p>Although the government is anxious to show it is concentrating on more than the Voice, the referendum will dominate the fortnight before the October 14 vote. On present indications, the government expects to lose. Albanese is preparing for defeat (while not conceding it), telling the Guardian’s Katharine Murphy the referendum will have been worthwhile regardless because it has brought the issue of Indigenous disadvantage to the fore.</p>
<p>Later in the month, Albanese will be in Washington on a state visit, feted at the White House. In politics, much is comparative. The Australian prime minister might privately muse that whatever problems he faces, they are way, way easier than those confronting his host.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214569/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Looking a year ahead, Labor will be struggling against the electoral tide in Queensland, where (on present polling) the Palaszczuk government could lose officeMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2118362023-08-18T08:57:48Z2023-08-18T08:57:48ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: WA Premier Roger Cook on Labor’s conference and his state’s issues<p>Labor this week had its first face-to-face national conference in five years, and it all went Anthony Albanese’s way. He won on AUKUS and rallied the party faithful, who did not rock the government’s boat.</p>
<p>For this podcast we caught up with the new Western Australian Premier Roger Cook on the sidelines of the conference, and canvassed a range of issues, including his recent backdown on the state’s cultural heritage law.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For this podcast we caught up with Western Australian Premier Roger Cook, and canvassed issues like the cultural heritage law backdown, and the Voice.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2061042023-06-04T23:25:03Z2023-06-04T23:25:03ZLabor maintains large Newspoll lead, but support for Voice slumps<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529948/original/file-20230604-17-rbedte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A federal Newspoll, conducted May 31 to June 3 from a sample of 1,549, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged from the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (steady), 12% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (down one) and 10% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>The gain for the Greens at the expense of One Nation should have contributed to Labor’s two party vote, and implies that Labor was unlucky not to gain on Newspoll’s two party estimate; rounding explains this.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 55% satisfied (down two) and 37% dissatisfied (down one), for a net approval of +18, down one point. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval was up one point to -14. Albanese led Dutton by 55-28 as better PM (56-29 three weeks ago). Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/06/04/newspoll-55-45-to-labor-open-thread-5/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>Support for the Indigenous <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fx0CFDpaIAAN_k3?format=png&name=small">Voice to parliament</a> slumped to a 46-43 lead for “yes” with 11% undecided, from a 53-39 lead in early April. This is the lowest lead for the Voice in any national poll so far. The question wording was changed to reflect the question that will be asked at the referendum.</p>
<p>In early May, I wrote that just one of 25 constitutional referendums held by Labor governments have succeeded in carrying the required four of six states as well as a national majority, and that early polling is not predictive, with support often collapsing in the lead-up to the vote.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/while-the-voice-has-a-large-poll-lead-now-history-of-past-referendums-indicates-it-may-struggle-204365">While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle</a>
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<p>The remainder of this article covers additional federal polls, WA Premier Mark McGowan’s resignation, the US debt limit compromise bill that passed Congress last week, and state polls from Victoria, NSW and Tasmania.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: 52-43 to Labor including undecided</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted May 24-28 from a sample of 1,138, Labor led by 52-43 including undecided (53-42 the previous fortnight). Primary votes were 34% Labor (down one), 31% Coalition (steady), 15% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 5% undecided (steady).</p>
<p>Asked about the government’s proposed $10 billion for housing development, 41% thought the $10 billion about the right amount, 30% too little and 9% too much. On sports betting advertising, 43% thought it should be banned at all times, 26% allowed but not during sports events and 16% always allowed.</p>
<h2>Freshwater poll only gives Labor a 52-48 lead</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/05/22/miscellany-freshwater-strategy-polling-by-election-latest-and-more-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on May 22 that a Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted May 15-17 from a sample of 1,005, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since December. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (down three), 12% Greens (steady) and 17% for all Others (up three).</p>
<p>Albanese’s approval was 42% (down six) and his disapproval 37% (up seven), for a net approval of +5, down 13 points. Dutton’s net approval was down three to -12. Albanese led as preferred PM by 51-33, from 55-29 in December.</p>
<p>On a two-answer basis, support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament narrowed to 55-45 from 65-35 in December. Initial views were 48% “yes” (down two), 39% “no” (up 13) and 13% undecided (down 11). An <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-but-voice-support-slumps-in-other-polls-nsw-final-results-and-queensland-polls-204107">April Freshwater</a> poll had given “yes” an overall 56-44 lead.</p>
<p>Just 9% thought the May 9 budget would put downward pressure on interest rates and inflation, while 52% thought the opposite. By 70-13, voters supported Dutton’s call to curtail sport gambling ads.</p>
<p>The Poll Bludger also reported that a Redbridge poll of Victorian federal voting intentions gave Labor 41% of the primary vote (32.9% at the May 2022 election), the Coalition 34% (33.1%) and the Greens 12% (13.7%). A Painted Dog WA poll for The West Australian gave Albanese a net +23 approval while Dutton was at net -32.</p>
<h2>Opposition to Voice drops in Morgan poll</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/support-for-the-voice-unchanged-at-46-in-late-may">Morgan SMS poll</a>, conducted May 26-29 from a sample of 1,833, had support for an Indigenous Voice to parliament at 46% (steady since mid-April), opposition at 36% (down three) and 18% undecided (up three). Excluding undecided, “yes” led by 56-44, a two-point gain for “yes”. </p>
<p>Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">weekly voting intentions</a> poll gave Labor a 55.5-44.5 lead last week, unchanged on the previous week but a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 36% Labor, 33.5% Coalition, 11.5% Greens and 19% for all Others. This poll was taken May 22-28 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9364-roy-morgan-update-may-30-2023">sample</a> of 1,389.</p>
<h2>WA Premier Mark McGowan resigns</h2>
<p>Labor Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-29/mark-mcgowan-resigns-wa-premier-live-blog/102406760">announced his resignation</a> as premier and member for Rockingham last Monday. At the March 2021 WA state election, McGowan led Labor to the biggest landslide win in Australian state or federal political history.</p>
<p>Labor won 59.9% of the primary vote at <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_Australian_state_election">that election</a> and won the two party vote by 69.7-30.3 over the Liberals and Nationals. They won 53 of the 59 lower house seats and 22 of the 36 upper house seats – the first WA Labor upper house majority.</p>
<p>Labor <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Western_Australian_state_election">reformed the upper house</a> in September 2021 to remove the heavy malapportionment towards the non-Perth regions of WA and abolish the group ticket voting system. At the next election, all 37 upper house seats will be elected by a statewide vote.</p>
<h2>US debt limit deal passes Congress</h2>
<p>I covered the passage of the US debt limit deal between President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy through Congress last week for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/05/31/us-debt-limit-deal-passage-through-congress/">The Poll Bludger</a>. The House passed it by 314-117 with a 78% “yes” vote from Democrats and 68% from Republicans, while the Senate passed it by 63-36 with 90% “yes” from Democrats but just 35% from Republicans.</p>
<p>My tactical analysis of the deal was harsh on McCarthy, saying he was more like a pussycat than a tiger. Upcoming elections in New Zealand and Spain were also covered, with both currently looking good for the right. In a <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/05/25/possible-us-debt-default-minus-one-week/">previous post</a> for The Poll Bludger, I covered recent election results in Thailand, Greece and Northern Ireland councils.</p>
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<span class="caption">Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and US President Joe Biden struck a deal on the debt ceiling.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alex Brandon/AP/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Morgan Victorian poll: 61.5-38.5 to Labor</h2>
<p>A Victorian <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9218-roy-morgan-survey-on-voting-intention-in-victoria-may-23-2023">SMS Morgan state</a> poll, conducted May 17-22 from a sample of 2,095, gave Labor a 61.5-38.5 lead over the Coalition (55.0-45.0 at the November 2022 election). Primary votes were 42% Labor, 28.5% Coalition, 12.5% Greens and 17% for all Others.</p>
<p>By 52.5-47.5 voters approved of Labor Premier Daniel Andrews’ performance (57.5-42.5 in a November Morgan poll). Liberal leader John Pesutto was at 53.5-46.5 disapproval. Andrews led Pesutto as better premier by 64-36. Respondents were asked why they approved or disapproved, with many who disapproved of Pesutto citing his handling of the Moira Deeming affair.</p>
<h2>NSW Resolve poll: Labor honeymoon after election win</h2>
<p>A New South Wales state <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/rise-in-voters-worried-about-skyrocketing-rental-prices-adds-to-minns-cost-of-living-challenge-20230516-p5d8qi.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, presumably conducted with the federal Resolve polls in April and May from a sample of about 1,100, gave Labor 44% of the primary vote (37.0% at the March 25 election), the Coalition 31% (35.4%), the Greens 9% (9.7%) and all Others 15% (17.9%).</p>
<p>Two party estimates are not generally provided by Resolve, but Labor is far ahead. Incumbent Chris Minns led new Liberal leader Mark Speakman as preferred premier by 42-12.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian EMRS poll: Liberals slump but Labor doesn’t benefit</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63435f017f0007502ab52a5d/t/646d6fd0bfcab25d518709d0/1684893650530/EMRS+State+Voting+Intentions+Report+-+May+2023.pdf">Tasmanian state EMRS</a> poll, conducted May 15-19 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 36% of the vote (down six since February), Labor 31% (up one), the Greens 15% (up two) and all Others 18% (up three). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two party estimate is not applicable.</p>
<p>Labor’s Rebecca White led incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff as preferred premier by 40-38, reversing a 44-36 Rockliff lead in February. This poll was taken after two Liberal MPs <a href="https://theconversation.com/albaneses-ratings-improve-in-a-post-budget-newspoll-left-to-control-nsw-upper-house-205186">defected to the crossbench</a> over the proposed new AFL stadium, causing the Liberal government to lose its majority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206104/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Labor government maintains a healthy lead in the polls, but support for the Voice to parliament appears to be slipping.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2067542023-05-31T09:30:47Z2023-05-31T09:30:47ZAfter 24 hours of drama, Roger Cook becomes the next premier of Western Australia<p>With the withdrawal of his principal challengers and the implicit endorsement from key factions within the Labor party, Roger Cook will become Western Australia’s 31st premier. We can expect final endorsement from the Labor caucus and a formal swearing-in from the WA governor in the coming days.</p>
<p>Cook is the Member for <a href="https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2008/electorate/KWI/results">Kwinana</a>, in the southern suburbs of Perth, and was elected to the seat in 2008, defeating a popular local mayor by just 300 votes. </p>
<p>Just ten days later, he was elected deputy leader of the Labor Party, a position he has remained in since. For the entire eight and a half years of opposition he held the portfolio of health, and he was appointed health minister when Labor came to power in 2017. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mark-mcgowan-quits-in-his-own-time-after-dominating-western-australian-politics-206612">Mark McGowan quits in his own time, after dominating Western Australian politics</a>
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<p>It was in this role that he became the second most visible minister in government when the COVID pandemic hit in 2020. From March 2020 until the end of 2021, Cook was often standing next to Premier Mark McGowan when the latter announced crucial decisions that affected every Western Australian. </p>
<p>At the end of 2021, Cook stepped aside as health minister in a cabinet reshuffle. This could be seen as a demotion, but his new portfolio of state development, jobs and tourism still allowed him to maintain a significant role in steering the economic direction of the state. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The COVID pandemic made Roger Cook (left) the second most visible WA minister after Premier Mark McGowan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Twenty-four hours of drama</h2>
<p>Monday’s bombshell <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-quits-in-shock-announcement-declaring-he-is-exhausted-206611">resignation of Mark McGowan</a> as premier left his cabinet and party colleagues scrambling to determine who should replace him. </p>
<p>Three candidates were initially mentioned: Cook, Rita Saffioti and Amber-Jade Sanderson. As minister for transport and planning, Saffioti was central to all major infrastructure projects since the Labor government’s election in 2017. She was especially known for her role in overseeing the rollout of Metronet, the expansion of the public transport system in Perth, which was the government’s signature project. Not being aligned to a faction, Saffioti did not have a natural support base in caucus, making her pathway to victory more complicated. </p>
<p>Sanderson was a first-term minister who has enjoyed a meteoric rise, starting in the environment portfolio before being catapulted into the hot seat of health. She was a member of the United Workers Union (UWU), the largest left faction.</p>
<p>While Cook was also a member of the UWU, Sanderson enjoyed the support of the union’s secretary and won the majority of UWU caucus members at a vote on Tuesday morning. At that point, Cook’s chances looked dim. But Saffioti agreed to join forces with Cook, while the other left faction, the Manufacturing Workers’ Union (AMWU), <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/mark-mcgowan/race-to-be-wa-premier-roger-cook-gets-backing-of-amwu-as-labors-left-splits--c-10818987">backed Cook</a>. </p>
<p>Given Cook also appeared to have support among Progressive Labor (also known as the Right faction), Sanderson withdrew by the end of Tuesday, leaving Cook as the only candidate.</p>
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<p>What remains to be seen is whether the split among the left factions in the Labor party at such a critical juncture is an enduring one. Cook may need to work to build support and collegiality from Sanderson’s supporters within his own UWU faction. There is also the inevitable question around whether anything was promised to the other factions in return for their support. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-pwc-scandal-mcgowan-quitting-politics-pms-trip-to-singapore-and-high-inflation-figure-206769">Word from The Hill: PwC scandal, McGowan quitting politics, PM's trip to Singapore and high inflation figure</a>
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<h2>So who is Roger Cook?</h2>
<p>Cook had a long initiation in politics, having been engaged in student politics during his time at university in the 1980s, rising to the position of national president for the National Union of Students. He spend time as a political adviser in the offices of well-known Labor figures in WA including Stephen Smith, Chris Evans and Jim McGinty.</p>
<p>Cook is known for his passion and enthusiasm for the causes of Indigenous Australians, and he worked in several advocacy roles in that area. Indigenous people featured prominently in his <a href="https://parliament.wa.gov.au/parliament/Memblist.nsf/(MemberPics)/6D748550465A10FCC82574CD000F4696/$file/Inaug+Cook+final.pdf">inaugural speech</a>. He voiced his strong <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/black-lives-matter-protest-coronavirus-western-australia-health-minister-roger-cooks-wife-to-attend/827bdcbd-533c-4660-9b54-f062ee49c7d9">support for his wife</a> who attended a Black Lives Matter protest in June 2020 during a period when the government was discouraging mass gatherings. </p>
<p>The new premier will face a range of challenges when entering the role. Perth is experiencing a housing shortage, which has exacerbated broader rises in the cost of living and contributed to a blowout in the waiting list for public housing. This is coupled with a general skills shortage, especially in the construction industry, which will make resolving the housing crisis more difficult. </p>
<p>There are acute problems in the juvenile justice system and health is a perennial trouble area. Finally, Cook finds himself in a struggle with other premiers (mostly Labor) over the GST allocation. This will ensure he will have his hands full the moment he steps into the job.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Drum was a member of the Ministerial Expert Committee that advised the WA government on electoral reform.</span></em></p>The man who rose to prominence leading Western Australia through the COVID pandemic alongside Mark McGowan becomes its 31st premier after a factional deal.Martin Drum, Professor of Politics and International Relations, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2067692023-05-31T07:47:09Z2023-05-31T07:47:09ZWord from The Hill: PwC scandal, McGowan quitting politics, PM’s trip to Singapore and high inflation figure<p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation’s politics team.</p>
<p>In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn discuss the PwC scandal, where the consulting firm broke a confidentiality agreement relating to planned taxation legislation by the Abbott government. They also canvass Mark McGowan’s quitting politics, Anthony Albanese’s trip to address the Shangri-la Dialogue, and the higher-than-expected inflation figure released from the Bureau of Statistics, which comes just before the Reserve Bank’s meeting on interest rates next Tuesday.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206769/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, @michellegrattan and @amandadunn10 discuss the PwC scandal, Mark McGowans resignation, the PMs Singapore trip, and the inflation figures from the ABSMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2066122023-05-29T08:42:59Z2023-05-29T08:42:59ZMark McGowan quits in his own time, after dominating Western Australian politics<p>One of the most dominant premiers in recent Australian political history, Mark McGowan, has resigned as Western Australian premier and the member for Rockingham.</p>
<p>Put simply, McGowan has dominated WA politics since becoming premier in March 2017. His Labor Party holds 53 of 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly, and for the first time ever, controls the Upper House as well. </p>
<p>But this does not begin to adequately describe his dominance. He has been the driving force of the Labor government, personally selecting cabinet ministers. Since 2021, he has been both premier and treasurer, which amounted to him holding the two most significant roles in government at the same time. He has centralised much of the decision-making across government in his own office.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-quits-in-shock-announcement-declaring-he-is-exhausted-206611">WA Premier Mark McGowan quits in shock announcement, declaring he is 'exhausted'</a>
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<p>Then there is his public profile. To many Western Australians, McGowan <em>is</em> the government. Many voters regarded him as the principal person to thank for keeping COVID-19 at bay during the pandemic. When many other Australian states endured long lockdowns, WA was COVID-free for the vast majority of that time. </p>
<p>At the 2021 election, the Labor party asked voters to vote for McGowan, not for the Labor brand or for local candidates. There are many anecdotal stories, often told by his political opponents, of voters coming up to them in various electorates, asking how they could vote for him.</p>
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<h2>Explaining his popularity</h2>
<p>McGowan was already a popular politician before COVID. He won a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/12/western-australian-election-mark-mcgowan-declares-victory-for-labor-after-record-breaking-swings">landslide victory</a> in WA in 2017, and the primary vote for Labor was at that time its highest ever. Even before COVID there were recriminations among his opponents, and a sense that he would be premier for at least two terms. </p>
<p>But the advent of COVID took his popularity to completely new levels. McGowan’s most popular policy was the closure of the WA borders to other states from mid-2020. Opinion polls indicated that as many as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-28/coronavirus-data-feelings-opinions-covid-survey-numbers/12188608">91% of WA voters</a> approved of his handling of the pandemic. </p>
<p>When mining magnate Clive Palmer took WA to court to try to bring down the border, and this was initially supported by the federal government, McGowan’s popularity only grew, as he was depicted as defending WA against elite interstate interests. </p>
<p>More significantly, the closed border policy tapped into WA parochialism, a sense that wider Australia might not have the interests of WA people at their heart. This has always been a factor in WA politics, evident in debates around the GST allocation, but it reached new levels during COVID. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/republic-of-western-australia-how-the-west-has-always-charted-its-own-course-from-secession-to-covid-167048">Republic of Western Australia: how the west has always charted its own course, from secession to COVID</a>
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<h2>Change in the political landscape</h2>
<p>McGowan’s legacy will be immense. In political terms, his party is dominant, with a massive structural advantage in seats, human resources and funds. His chief opponent, the once dominant Liberal Party of WA, is in ruins. Even the Federal Branch of the Liberal Party is a shadow of its former self, smashed at the Federal election of 2022. </p>
<p>But McGowan’s departure does present real opportunities. The new premier will not have the same latent personal support that McGowan commanded. A change in leadership may free some voters up to switch their allegiances.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-thumping-win-in-western-australia-carries-risks-for-both-sides-156301">Labor's thumping win in Western Australia carries risks for both sides</a>
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<p>The new premier will have to make their own mark and notch up new achievements to define their leadership and government. As a start, they will need to make inroads into some of the policy challenges the government faces, which did not receive the same visibility during the pandemic. This includes homelessness, since housing has become less affordable and the waiting list for public housing has grown significantly. </p>
<p>There is also a profound skills shortage that is affecting public and private sector projects, especially in the construction industry. Tourism needs to be rebuilt – the government previously told people not to come to WA, and now has to convince them otherwise. </p>
<p>Finally, there have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/sending-teens-to-maximum-security-prisons-shows-australia-needs-to-raise-the-age-of-criminal-responsibility-187768">disturbing and challenging problems</a> in WA’s juvenile detention system that require urgent attention.</p>
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<h2>Who might succeed McGowan?</h2>
<p>Because of McGowan’s dominance, there has been less opportunity for his colleagues to shine.</p>
<p>Roger Cook has been deputy premier for the duration of the McGowan government. He was health minister for the vast majority of the pandemic, and over that time he had the second biggest profile in government. The health portfolio was a challenging one, and Cook stepped away in 2021. His profile has not been so significant since that time, but his current portfolio of state development, jobs and tourism is very economic focused, which would not be a bad stepping stone to the premier’s role. </p>
<p>The other potential candidate is Minister for Health Amber-Jade Sanderson. She has been elevated quickly within the government, taking on the environment portfolio and then the hot seat of health. She is in just her first term as a minister and at 46, would represent something of a generational change at the top.</p>
<p>The new leader will have a considerable period of time to settle in. The next state election is not due until March 2025. This should offer the new premier an opportunity to make their own mark and set a new direction before facing the voters.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1663046020371210240"}"></div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206612/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Drum was a member of the Ministerial Expert Committee that advised the WA government on electoral reform.</span></em></p>After the departure of their popular and wildly electorally successful leader, Labor’s Roger Cook and Amber-Jade Sanderson are among those touted as possible successors.Martin Drum, Lecturer Politics and International Relations, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835992022-05-22T10:33:23Z2022-05-22T10:33:23ZSwing when you’re winning: how Labor won big in Western Australia<p>Western Australia’s promise to be the kingmaker on federal election night <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/western-australia-goes-all-in-on-red-and-it-could-deliver-labor-majority-government">has finally been delivered</a>. </p>
<p>During the count, the rest of the country saw a slow but steady accumulation of Labor gains despite a fall in its primary vote. There was also a solid but unspectacular swing to it on a two party preferred (2PP) measure. But WA moved decisively and dramatically into the Labor camp. This is evident in both votes and seats.</p>
<p>Labor won four seats from the Liberals: Swan, Pearce, Hasluck and Tangney. So it now holds nine of WA’s 15 seats in the House of Representatives – the first time it has held a majority of WA’s federal seats since 1990. The Liberals also look very likely to lose the prized seat of Curtin to a teal independent. This would leave them with just five seats, in a state where they won 11 out of the 16 that were available in 2019.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-six-politics-experts-take-us-around-australia-in-the-final-week-of-the-campaign-183099">State of the states: six politics experts take us around Australia in the final week of the campaign</a>
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<h2>Massive swings for Labor’s primary and 2PP votes</h2>
<p>These seat gains to Labor come on the back of massive primary and 2PP vote swings. Labor’s first-preference vote in WA jumped from 29.8% in 2019 to about 37.3% this time around. </p>
<p>In 2019, Labor’s primary vote in WA was 3.5 percentage points below its national share of 33.3%. Now, it is 4.5 percentage points above – a turnaround of 8 percentage points.</p>
<p>According <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results/party-totals">to the ABC on Sunday evening</a>, Labor in WA has about 55.3% of the 2PP, compared with about 52.2% nationally. In 2019, Labor won only 44.4% of the 2PP in WA, compared with 48.5% nationally. Labor in WA has gone from second-lowest to the highest 2PP share of any state.</p>
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<img alt="Labor supporters in WA watch outgoing Prime Minister Scott Morrison concede on election night." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464635/original/file-20220522-25-epmy5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464635/original/file-20220522-25-epmy5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464635/original/file-20220522-25-epmy5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464635/original/file-20220522-25-epmy5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464635/original/file-20220522-25-epmy5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464635/original/file-20220522-25-epmy5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464635/original/file-20220522-25-epmy5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Labor picked up four seats in WA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
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<p>These results reflect <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-22/wa-reject-liberal-party-with-massive-swing-to-labor/101077728">massive swings across the state</a> and in individual seats. </p>
<p>In the Liberals’ two most marginal seats, Pearce and Swan, the swings to Labor on a 2PP basis are 14.9% and 13.1% respectively. Electoral boundaries for <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2021-federal-redistribution-boundaries-finalised-for-western-australia/">Pearce were redrawn</a> after the last election, favouring Labor and reducing the total number of WA seats to 15. In Hasluck, Labor’s other target seat, there was an 11.5% swing, which means outgoing Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt has lost his seat. </p>
<p>A few months ago, Premier Mark McGowan <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/mark-mcgowan/mark-mcgowan-qa-premier-predicts-five-wa-seats-for-federal-labor-in-election-c-4959744">talked about Tangney as a possibility</a> before Labor expectations were hosed down. Now, a swing of 12.1% has seen Ben Morton, a close colleague of Scott Morrison, defeated. Meanwhile, Labor’s most marginal seat, Cowan, previously on a margin of 0.9%, now has an 10% buffer.</p>
<p>Labor also looks like it may pick up a third Senate seat for the first time in a half-Senate election, with the Greens also winning a seat. This could tip the balance of power in the Senate.</p>
<p>The final blow to the Liberal Party is the likely loss of Curtin, held by Celia Hammond. Despite a 13.9% margin, it seems to have <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/curtin-candidate-kate-chaney-buoyed-by-eastern-states-independent-results-faces-nervous-wait-20220521-p5anbw.html">fallen to independent Kate Chaney</a>.</p>
<h2>Four steps to success in the West</h2>
<p>We can think of the election outcome in WA as the result of four distinct steps along the electoral map. </p>
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<img alt="WA Premier Mark McGowan and Anthony Albanese at the Labor campaign launch in Perth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464654/original/file-20220522-25530-yhkwhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464654/original/file-20220522-25530-yhkwhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464654/original/file-20220522-25530-yhkwhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464654/original/file-20220522-25530-yhkwhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464654/original/file-20220522-25530-yhkwhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464654/original/file-20220522-25530-yhkwhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464654/original/file-20220522-25530-yhkwhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">WA Premier Mark McGowan’s enormous popularity in the state was a bonus for Anthony Albanese’s campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
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<p>First, WA Labor has been a serial underperformer in federal politics, so merely shifting towards the average national Labor vote share was always likely to deliver it at least one seat, possibly two. The lack of contentious issues in the campaign relating to tax or the resources industry, plus the <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/at-the-halfway-mark-it-s-advantage-labor-especially-in-wa-20220501-p5ahif">increased attention paid to WA by federal Labor</a>, helped turn the dial in Labor’s direction.</p>
<p>Second, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-22/ben-morton-credits-mgowan-with-liberal-bloodbath-in-wa/101089276">McGowan’s ongoing popularity</a> disproved the notion that state politics don’t translate federally. Clearly, in 2022, they did. Federal Labor was able to capitalise on Labor’s strong brand in those Perth suburbs where it did so well in the 2021 state election. This enabled it to make a second big step forward in its primary vote.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-mark-mcgowan-the-wa-leader-with-a-staggering-88-personal-approval-rating-156293">Meet Mark McGowan: the WA leader with a staggering 88% personal approval rating</a>
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<h2>Coalition mistakes</h2>
<p>Third, the Coalition federal government shot itself in the foot in 2020 when Morrison criticised the WA government’s border closures, and even more so when it supported <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election/madeleine-king-matt-keogh-blast-liberals-for-supporting-clive-palmers-bid-to-bring-down-hard-border-c-6399945">Clive Palmer’s High Court case</a> against them. </p>
<p>This was a major contributor to the Liberal Party’s decimation at the state poll in March 2021, leaving it with just two lower house MPs and depriving it of staff and resources, and thus not well positioned to withstand Labor’s strong campaign this time around. In addition, the <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/liberal/the-clan-still-controls-liberal-party-says-norman-moore-ng-b882035785z">WA Liberal Party’s failure to address</a> internal organisational and factional issues left it open to a successful challenge in its Curtin heartland.</p>
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<img alt="Voters walk past Labor and Liberal signs in Hasluck on election day." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464636/original/file-20220522-31005-xts761.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464636/original/file-20220522-31005-xts761.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464636/original/file-20220522-31005-xts761.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464636/original/file-20220522-31005-xts761.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464636/original/file-20220522-31005-xts761.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464636/original/file-20220522-31005-xts761.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464636/original/file-20220522-31005-xts761.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Outgoing Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt lost his seat of Hasluck as Labor swept WA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Fourth, WA’s relatively benign experience of the pandemic, plus Palmer’s unpopularity, meant most disaffected Liberal voters switched directly to Labor rather than to other right-wing parties. The United Australia Party and One Nation between them look to have only won 6.2% of the vote in WA, compared with 9.2% nationally.</p>
<p>Only one WA-based Labor MP, <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/was-trailblazing-federal-mp-madeleine-king-set-to-win-back-the-resources-sector-for-labor-ng-b881825797z">Madeleine King</a>, is regarded as a certainty for a ministerial portfolio. But with federal Labor owing so much to WA, satisfying the ambitions and expectations of his WA MPs, and the broader WA community, will be an early challenge for Anthony Albanese.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183599/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Phillimore worked as an adviser to state Labor governments in Western Australia in the 1980s and between 2001 and 2007</span></em></p>Labor holds the majority of Western Australia’s lower house seats for the first time since 1990.John Phillimore, Executive Director, John Curtin Institute of Public Policy, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1796372022-03-20T10:27:14Z2022-03-20T10:27:14ZView from The Hill: SA result is morale boost for Albanese, but he’s struggling with Kitching allegations<p>Move over Mark McGowan and make some space for South Australia’s Peter Malinauskas on Scott Morrison’s recently-installed couch of Labor “besties”. </p>
<p>After Malinauskas’ sweeping victory on Saturday, Morrison told his Sunday news conference he’d already spoken to the premier-elect. </p>
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<p>We had a very constructive discussion about the many projects that are already underway in South Australia […] And I look forward to working with him on those many projects.</p>
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<p>The Morrison government might have bagged Labor states at various times over the last two years – Western Australia, Queensland, and Victoria all received criticism – but that’s history. </p>
<p>As far as the PM is concerned, just now he’s at a high point of co-operative federalism. </p>
<p>The SA election has only limited federal implications – we all know people distinguish their federal and state votes. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the result – the first time since COVID a state or territory government has lost an election – has some federal relevance. So close to the national election, it does affect the vibe. </p>
<p>Think of it this way: if Steven Marshall had had an unexpected victory, what would have been the reaction? People would have said it showed again how wrong polls can be. The result would have inserted a discount into assessments of Anthony Albanese’s chances. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-easily-wins-south-australian-election-but-upper-house-could-be-a-poor-result-178998">Labor easily wins South Australian election, but upper house could be a poor result</a>
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<p>SA Labor’s win will be a psychological boost for the federal opposition, and a further dampener on the government’s mood. </p>
<p>The Marshall government’s loss will reduce the enthusiasm and probably the resources of the local Liberals’ federal campaign in that state. And that’s at the least – the worst thing for the federal Liberals would be if their SA brethren, who are faction-riven, fell into a nasty blame game. </p>
<p>Fortunately for Morrison, SA has minimal seats at risk of changing. Mainly the contest will centre on Boothby where Liberal Nicole Flint is retiring.</p>
<p>Nationally, attention this week will quickly move on from South Australia, as the Morrison government ramps up its public preparation for Tuesday week’s budget and pre-releases various measures.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-brutal-loss-in-south-australia-reflects-the-fragmented-politics-of-the-centre-right-177917">Liberals' brutal loss in South Australia reflects the fragmented politics of the centre-right</a>
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<p>On Friday, Josh Frydenberg set out the budget’s priorities, which boiled down to giving some relief to people feeling cost of living pressures, and starting to address budget repair and Australia’s high debt. </p>
<p>The cost of living has rapidly escalated as a major issue for the May election. </p>
<p>Whatever the government does, there will be some smoke and mirrors. For example, the budget is set to contain an early payment for low and middle income earners. But the trade off is said to be that it won’t roll over the tax offset that would have given them a rebate in 2023.</p>
<p>Frydenberg has said the cost of living measures will be “targeted” and “proportionate”. There’s been pressure for the government to act on petrol excise, but increasingly strong arguments against doing so.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-hard-to-find-a-case-for-a-cut-in-petrol-tax-there-are-other-things-the-budget-can-do-179272">It's hard to find a case for a cut in petrol tax – there are other things the budget can do</a>
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<p>Deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce said last week that cutting the excise wouldn’t ease the cost of living and would take money away from roads. </p>
<p>The Deloitte Access Economics budget monitor, released Monday, says in framing the March 29 budget the government is in a better position than it earlier expected. This is due to a combination of the economy recovering faster than anticipated and rising commodity prices.</p>
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<p>But that first factor fades over time […] And the second factor is also only a temporary tailwind,“ the monitor says. "In other words, the Lucky Country becomes less lucky over time.</p>
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<p>Just at the moment, the opposition finds itself more than a little distracted from the pre-budget debate, as friends of the late senator Kimberley Kitching continue to prosecute their claims that she was bullied by Labor’s Senate leadership team – claims denied by the three senior Senate women, Penny Wong, Kristina Keneally, and Katy Gallagher. </p>
<p>The three senators, and many of their accusers will be at Kitching’s funeral at St Patrick’s Cathedral in Melbourne on Monday. As well as being a deeply sad occasion for a grieving family, it will be a fraught one for Labor. </p>
<p>Albanese has not been handling the issue of the allegations well, and Wong was unconvincing when she appeared on Nine on Sunday. She was keeping a commitment arranged earlier, but the interview inevitably was dominated by the bitter Kitching controversy. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-labors-treatment-of-kimberley-kitching-tough-politics-or-bullying-179580">View from The Hill: Labor's treatment of Kimberley Kitching – 'tough politics' or 'bullying'?</a>
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<p>Wong said: "There is a common decency that I think we would all hope […] is demonstrated when someone has died. And I would invite some of those making claims and sharing views to consider and reflect on whether or not they have demonstrated that now.” </p>
<p>The trouble with that superficially plausible plea is that it is Kitching’s friends who are making the claims (whether these are justified or not) because they believe she was treated badly. </p>
<p>The government has to be careful with such a sensitive matter, but it is pushing hard. “This is a very, very serious issue,” Morrison said on Sunday. “They’re serious issues that Anthony Albanese has to deal with. This is on his watch.”</p>
<p>The Liberals are trying to turn it into a character test for Albanese. </p>
<p>On a day when you would have expected he might have relished a public appearance, the opposition leader didn’t make one on Sunday.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179637/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Move over Mark McGowan and make some space for South Australia’s Peter Malinauskas on Scott Morrison’s recently-installed couch of Labor “besties”.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795552022-03-18T05:39:29Z2022-03-18T05:39:29ZVIDEO: Campaigning in WA, Morrison distinguishes good Labor from bad Labor<p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Change Governance Dr Lain Dare discuss the week in politics.</p>
<p>With Anthony Albanese drawing level with Scott Morrison as “better PM” in Newspoll, they canvass the PM’s ill-judged dig at the opposition leader over his ‘makeover’, and Morrison’s attempt to make WA Premier Mark McGowan his new best friend while campaigning in Western Australia.</p>
<p>They also discuss the priorities for the March 29 budget that Josh Frydenberg has outlined – some targeted help on the cost of living and an attack on the nation’s debt. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Change Governance Dr Lain Dare discuss the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1758452022-01-27T11:42:07Z2022-01-27T11:42:07ZGrattan on Friday: A royal commission into COVID’s handling would serve us well for the future<p>This month about as many people have died with COVID in Australia – more than 1,000 – as die in the whole of a bad year from influenza. </p>
<p>“Because of extraordinarily high virus transmission, we’re getting more deaths now in this ‘enlightenment’ COVID time than in the ‘dark ages’ time,” says Brendan Crabb, research scientist and director of the Burnet Institute. </p>
<p>“On a seven-day average, we are now seeing more than 60 deaths every day, with no sign yet of a decline. Lessons from the UK and US are that without effective controls we may settle on a high baseline toll beyond the Omicron peak that is not much below this.” </p>
<p>Yet as deaths suddenly spiked in the last few weeks, attention on them doesn’t seem to have spiked proportionately. </p>
<p>The pandemic news of January has been been dominated by the shortage of RATs, supply-chain problems, and pressures on the health system. </p>
<p>We have not learned to live with the disruption of Omicron, or as yet to strike the most effective response to it, but we are not, it seems, traumatised by its current death toll.</p>
<p>At least, not most of the country. This week Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan justified delaying his plan to open the state border on February 5 by highlighting the deaths elsewhere. </p>
<p>“As you’re seeing over east, huge numbers of people are dying,” he said. He’s copped plenty of criticism for his turnaround.</p>
<p>In COVID’s early days in Australia, deaths were very much front and centre in public attention. Now, despite a highly vaccinated population and a less lethal variant of the virus, the substantial death numbers are higher than the narrative of late 2021 led us to anticipate. However, they aren’t leaving such a deep imprint on the public consciousness. </p>
<p>The earlier dire warnings to the unvaccinated about the risks they ran were absolutely accurate. But the statistics are also showing that many of those dying with COVID were vaccinated. Clearly vaccination is not the be-all-and-end-all it might have sounded. Just as in driving your car, the seat belt offers protection but is not a guarantee of survival in a crash. </p>
<p>Anyway, the authorities have quickly changed their messaging from the importance of being doubly vaxxed to the necessity of that booster. Crabb says vaccines are “brilliant” and the most important thing people can do is to have three doses. “But it doesn’t make you bullet-proof, nor protect those around you. Any effective strategy has to be more than vaccines.” </p>
<p>On various fronts, Australia’s journey through Omicron has not been managed effectively, which reinforces the already strong argument for a royal commission into how the pandemic in general has been handled. </p>
<p>Anthony Albanese this week took his “small target” strategy to the extreme when, appearing at the National Press Club, he was asked whether if he becomes prime minister he would set up a royal commission.</p>
<p>The Labor leader declined to commit. There’d need to be an “assessment” of what had been done, he said. He conceded Labor had considered a royal commission, but the matter hadn’t been though its “process”. </p>
<p>Albanese mightn’t want to take attention off the RATs shortage and other issues by promising a royal commission. Or perhaps he fears advocating it would open him to Scott Morrison’s again accusing him of playing politics. It could be cast by critics as tit-for-tat for the Abbott government’s royal commissions into its Labor predecessor, notably into the “pink batts” scheme which resulted in many house fires and several deaths. </p>
<p>But the case for a commission is overwhelming, especially to inform us about what needs to be done to ready for pandemics in the future. It is needed to investigate all fronts: health, economics and governance. </p>
<p>Especially in the early stages of the pandemic, everyone welcomed “health advice” being followed by governments. But the term “health advice” concealed some sharp differences that occurred among experts. These continue today, as we grapple with Omicron.</p>
<p>A royal commission would enable better understanding of the debates that have gone on, and go on, within the health establishment, including at the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC), the group of federal and state advisers to the national cabinet. Mostly, differences within that group have been mired in secrecy.</p>
<p>Unreadiness and slow reactions have led to some of the serious problems in handling COVID. These have included the initial slow rollout of the vaccines, and latterly the tardiness in obtaining RATs. </p>
<p>Political failures account for part of these problems, but what about the bureaucracy? The pink batts royal commission identified faults in the Environment Department. Has the federal Health Department been found wanting in this crisis and what changes are needed? And what about the responses of the state health systems?</p>
<p>In general the Australian economy has held up well during the pandemic, and that has been substantially due to government programs. At the same time, some funds have been wasted and an outside investigation would be instructive on how things could be done better if circumstances repeated themselves. </p>
<p>A detailed probe into the supply-chain issues could lead to more belts and braces for the future.</p>
<p>The debate about governance has been fraught during COVID, which exposed just how much power the states have in the federation.</p>
<p>Morrison’s innovation of the “national cabinet” has run side by side with premiers taking their own courses on matters from schools to borders. </p>
<p>Critics of the states would have liked to see Morrison able to exercise near-total authority. Conversely, many of Morrison’s critics believe tough premiers were what held the deaths in check for so long. </p>
<p>How the federation has operated during COVID and what adaptations are needed would be major issues for a royal commission. </p>
<p>And then there’s Australia’s international response. Much attention was on the government’s call for an inquiry into the pandemic’s origins, but what about Australia’s role in a co-ordinated global response?</p>
<p>Like Albanese, Morrison’s line is that the time to talk about “reviews or whatever” is not now.</p>
<p>But calls for a royal commission are coming from across the political spectrum, ranging from backbench Labor through the crossbench to some on the right in the Coalition, although motives vary and there are differences about timing. </p>
<p>Some of those against such an inquiry point to the drawn-out nature of royal commissions. But the investigation would not divert from current efforts and could be staged, reporting progressively. </p>
<p>To the argument “not another royal commission”, the answer is that such comprehensive investigations look under the rocks, produce a wealth of information, and concentrate the attention of policymakers. Who would say the royal commissions into banking and aged care were not worth the effort? </p>
<p>A royal commission would not take away from Australia’s undoubted successes in dealing with COVID. Rather, it would be a form of insurance, putting us in the best position to confront a possible Mark 2 pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175845/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As many people have died with COVID in Australia – more than 1,000 – as die from a bad year from influenza. Attention on them doesn’t seem to have spiked proportionately.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1670482021-12-20T22:09:20Z2021-12-20T22:09:20ZRepublic of Western Australia: how the west has always charted its own course, from secession to COVID<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435518/original/file-20211203-23-mt9cbl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C2%2C459%2C352&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Four secessionist delegates holding the proposed flag for Western Australia in 1934.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">State Library of WA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For nearly two years, Western Australia Premier Mark McGowan has sealed his state off from the rest of the world to pursue a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/MarkMcGowanMP/posts/388455319309986">hugely popular</a> zero-COVID strategy. </p>
<p>Now the state is inching closer to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-13/wa-border-open-date-announced-by-mark-mcgowan/100683620">reopening its borders</a> to the world in early February, when 90% of the adult population is hopefully double-vaccinated. </p>
<p>The pandemic has tested the strength of the federation in many ways, but no state or territory has sealed itself off from the rest of the country as WA has. </p>
<p>McGowan’s <a href="https://expressdigest.com/wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-launches-a-blistering-attack-on-basket-case-nsw-over-covid-catastrophe/">strong stance on borders</a> has reminded many of the long streak of separateness that has defined WA throughout history and placed it at odds with its eastern neighbours. </p>
<p>The distance from its sister states (and, before federation, sister colonies) helped make WA a late and somewhat reluctant member of the Commonwealth of Australia. This feeling of separateness remains today, although formal secession, once a dream of WA residents, is still a fantasy.</p>
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<h2>Reluctance, then acceptance, of federation</h2>
<p>By the 1890s, the campaign to unite the Australian colonies was gaining momentum. A depression in the eastern colonies bolstered the argument that all Australians would benefit from a common market.</p>
<p>Western Australians were far from convinced. The discovery of gold had led to a rapid growth of WA’s population and wealth. Western Australians worried their prosperity would be undermined by greater competition with the eastern states.</p>
<p>WA did not hold a referendum on federation in 1898 and 1899 when the other colonies did. But public sentiment soon shifted. The Gold Rush had sparked an influx of colonists from eastern Australia to the goldfields around Kalgoorlie, and pressure from these “tothersiders” saw the WA parliament reluctantly agree to a referendum. </p>
<p>More than half of the “yes” vote in the 1900 referendum came from easterners working in the goldfields. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/breaking-up-is-hard-to-do-why-western-australia-would-find-it-difficult-to-divorce-canberra-14663">Breaking up is hard to do: why Western Australia would find it difficult to divorce Canberra </a>
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<h2>Immediate attempts to break away</h2>
<p>It took only five years, however, for the WA legislative assembly to tire of federation. In 1906, it passed a resolution in favour of WA’s withdrawal from the Commonwealth that did not lead anywhere.</p>
<p>The real impetus for an actual secession movement came during the Great Depression. Western Australians became increasingly resentful of protectionist tariffs imposed by the Commonwealth government on foreign imports. This protectionism seemed to benefit manufacturers in New South Wales and Victoria at the expense of primary producers like them. </p>
<p>In 1930, a Dominion League took wing in WA. The league was a pressure group whose aim was to make their state autonomous from Canberra. WA would instead be a “dominion” of the British Empire in the same way Australia and Canada were. </p>
<p>The Dominion League persuaded the Nationalist government led by James Mitchell to submit a referendum for secession to WA voters.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435517/original/file-20211203-25-42h665.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435517/original/file-20211203-25-42h665.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435517/original/file-20211203-25-42h665.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435517/original/file-20211203-25-42h665.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435517/original/file-20211203-25-42h665.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435517/original/file-20211203-25-42h665.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435517/original/file-20211203-25-42h665.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A meeting of the Dominion League for the secession movement, 1934.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">State Library of WA</span></span>
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<p>The referendum took place on April 8 1933, at the same time as a state election. By a majority of two to one, Western Australians voted in favour of secession. </p>
<p>Voters also elected a Labor state government, and the premier, Philip Collier, was confronted by popular sentiment that was overwhelmingly in favour of separation from Canberra. He could not stop a loyal WA delegation petitioning the British parliament for secession in 1935. </p>
<p>The route the secessionist delegation favoured was an <a href="https://www.legislation.wa.gov.au/legislation/prod/filestore.nsf/FileURL/mrdoc_12573.pdf/$FILE/Secession%20Act%201934%20-%20%5B00-00-00%5D.pdf?OpenElement">imperial act of parliament</a>. This would amend the Australian Constitution, which had been enshrined in an act of the UK parliament. </p>
<p>The British parliament, however, rejected the state’s petition. It maintained that its own <a href="https://thecommonwealth.org/history-of-the-commonwealth/statute-westminster#:%7E:text=Statute%20of%20Westminster%20gives%20legal,facto%20independence%20of%20the%20dominions.">1931 Statute of Westminster</a> had given Australia dominion autonomy. So the only way WA could achieve independence would be with Canberra’s consent.</p>
<p>The Dominion League was bitterly disappointed, and got a modicum of revenge in 1937 by voting out the most prominent local advocate of federation, Senator George Pearce. </p>
<p>In the longer term, the federal parliament helped turn around the mood for separation in WA. It did this, in part, by promoting financial aid to WA and other smaller states through the Commonwealth Grants Commission. </p>
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<span class="caption">A souvenir envelope marking the celebration of the secession referendum in 1933.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
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<h2>WA battles with Canberra over resources</h2>
<p>From the 1930s onward, WA often clashed with Canberra and the eastern states. </p>
<p>One fight was over a 1938 decision of the Lyons government to stop the Japanese-led development of iron ore deposits at Yampi Sound, off Australia’s northwest. To do so, the Lyons government completely prohibited the sale of any Australian iron ore to foreign countries.</p>
<p>Throughout the 1950s, WA governments campaigned to modify the federal iron ore embargo. Finally, in 1959, the WA government led by Premier David Brand and Charles Court, the minister for industrial development, took unilateral action. It decided to advertise a public tender for the development of deposits at Mount Goldsworthy, a mining area that used Port Hedland as its outlet. </p>
<p>This started a chain of events that eventually persuaded the Menzies government to relax the embargo in 1960. The end of the embargo allowed the development of what would become Australia’s greatest export industry. </p>
<p>Then, in the 1960s and ‘70s, Canberra’s stipulation of minimum prices for WA mineral exports enraged the state government. </p>
<p>Court, WA premier from 1974-82, also campaigned against the Whitlam government’s plan to bypass WA by developing the oil and gas resources of the North West Shelf through a sovereign oil company. </p>
<p>In this context, a <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/159324082">“Westralian” secession movement</a> was revived with the financial backing of mining magnate Lang Hancock. It harked back to the rhetoric of the secessionist movement of the 1930s, but failed to translate an anti-Canberra sentiment into a concrete outcome like the 1933 secession plebiscite.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-border-challenge-why-states-not-courts-need-to-make-the-hard-calls-during-health-emergencies-143541">WA border challenge: why states, not courts, need to make the hard calls during health emergencies</a>
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<h2>Echoes of the past</h2>
<p>As recently as 2017, a group of WA Liberals revived a proposal to make the state an independent nation. </p>
<p>Since then, WA and the Commonwealth have frequently been at loggerheads, most recently over Clive Palmer’s challenge to WA’s closed borders during COVID (which the Morrison government backed for months until realising McGowan’s stance had overwhelming public support). </p>
<p>Today, distance and hard borders are being hailed as potential saviours of the west from the pandemic and the interminable lockdowns in the eastern states. After closing itself off for nearly two years, WA seems finally ready to reopen, although those long-harbored secessionist dreams will likely never die.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167048/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lee receives funding from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for a history of the Department of Trade. </span></em></p>WA Premier Mark McGowan’s strong stance on borders has reminded many of the long streak of separateness that has defined Western Australia throughout history.David Lee, Associate Professor of History, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1666032021-08-23T12:56:28Z2021-08-23T12:56:28ZMorrison battles to get hardline premiers to accept the inevitable spread of COVID<p>Australia’s road out of the pandemic has descended into political acrimony and confusion, as Scott Morrison pushes back against the reluctance of some states to accept they will have to live with COVID in their populations.</p>
<p>Morrison on Monday again insisted the nation must open – start “coming out of the cave” – once vaccination levels reached 70% and 80% of the eligible population.</p>
<p>This would mean accepting a large number of COVID cases in the community but minimising hospitalisations and deaths.</p>
<p>“If not at 70% and 80%, then when?” Morrison said. “We must make that move and … we must prepare the country to make that move. The lockdowns now being endured are taking an extremely heavy toll.”</p>
<p>“We must adjust our mindset. Cases will not be the issue once we get above 70%. Dealing with serious illness, hospitalisation, ICU capabilities, our ability to respond in those circumstances, that will be our goal. And we will live with this virus as we live with other infectious diseases. That’s what the national plan is all about.” </p>
<p>NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian, whose state has new cases running at more than 800 a day, said it was “completely unrealistic” to believe zero COVID could be sustained with the Delta variant.</p>
<p>But Western Australia’s Mark McGowan said: “Queensland has no cases. Northern Territory has no cases. Western Australia has no case. South Australia and Tasmania have no cases. That’s 40% of the national population. And we’re actually quite happy with that. </p>
<p>"So I think there’s a lot of self-serving justification going on by the New South Wales government because of their performance.”</p>
<p>Morrison is trying to hold states to national cabinet’s plan, agreed by all governments, which provides that when vaccination reached 80% (nationally and in the state or territory) lockdowns would be extremely rare and specific.</p>
<p>But WA and Queensland have made it clear they will make their own decisions about opening to other parts of the country even when high vaccination levels are reached.</p>
<p>The Prime Minister told parliament the Doherty Institute had confirmed over the weekend that its modelling on the vaccination levels held regardless of the case numbers in the community at the start.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/DohertyModelling_NationalPlan_and_Addendum_20210810.pdf">The Doherty modelling</a> assumed a very few COVID numbers as its starting point.</p>
<p>The institute’s director, Sharon Lewin, on Monday said opening up with more than the small number of cases didn’t change the trajectory of the modelling, although it would affect the timing.</p>
<p>“The most important message from the modelling, is that once we move to Phase B, when we have 70% vaccination and then to Phase C with 80% vaccination, we no longer have zero COVID as a goal,” she said. </p>
<p>“If you open up with more cases, you reach that peak [of cases] quicker and you have a greater load on your public health system. …The outcome is the same. The load on the public health system is higher when you open up with hundreds of cases.”</p>
<p>In a Monday night statement the institute said: “Once we reach 70% vaccine coverage, opening up at tens or hundreds of cases nationally per day is possible, however, we will need vigilant public health interventions with higher case loads”.</p>
<p>It said that while it might seem the “test, trace, isolate and quarantine” measures were not currently working in NSW or Victoria, in fact they were. “They are stopping transmissions and reducing the effective reproduction rate.</p>
<p>"These measures will become more effective with more people vaccinated as vaccines also contribute to stopping transmission.</p>
<p>"We need to keep suppressing COVID-19 through public health measures while we work towards 70%-80% vaccination across the country. This will ensure we continue to keep the level of hospitalisations and deaths as low as possible to protect the community and prevent our healthcare system from becoming overrun.”</p>
<p>The institute said the team of modellers from across Australia which it was leading was “now working through the implementation issues specific to the states and territories, specific populations and high risk settings”.</p>
<p>Drawing on its modelling the institute said: “In an average year of influenza, we would roughly have 600 deaths and 200,000 cases in Australia. </p>
<p>"In the COVID-19 modelling, opening up at 70% vaccine coverage of the adult population with partial public health measures, we predict 385,983 symptomatic cases and 1,457 deaths over six months. With optimal public health measures (and no lockdowns), this can be significantly reduced to 2,737 infections and 13 deaths.”</p>
<p>McGowan said the national cabinet plan allowed for lockdowns at 70% and 80% two-dose vaccination levels. “It’s in black and white. People should read the plan.” </p>
<p>“My view is we should do everything we can to stay in the state we are currently in, and at the same time vaccinate like hell.</p>
<p>"I think that’s the majority view here and in the states without Covid cases. And in Victoria and the ACT, which are trying to eliminate it as we speak,” McGowan said.</p>
<p>National cabinet on Friday is due to consider the health advice on vaccinating young people 12-15, with the federal government’s aiming for that to be done this year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166603/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s road out of the pandemic has descended into political acrimony and confusion, as Scott Morrison pushes back against the attempt by some states to stay largely COVID-free.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1563012021-03-14T05:57:37Z2021-03-14T05:57:37ZLabor’s thumping win in Western Australia carries risks for both sides<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389404/original/file-20210314-20-tjioj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Liberal fears of a wipeout in the Western Australia state election have been realised, with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-obliterates-liberals-in-historic-wa-election-will-win-control-of-upper-house-for-first-time-156203">Labor party winning about 52 seats</a> in the 59-member Legislative Assembly.</p>
<p>This represents the biggest electoral win in any Australian jurisdiction since the stabilisation of the two-party system over 70 years ago. There is no doubt that the immense popularity of Labor Premier Mark McGowan was a decisive factor in the result. McGowan enjoys <a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-mark-mcgowan-the-wa-leader-with-a-staggering-88-personal-approval-rating-156293">rock-star-like status</a> in the state, and this <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/13/western-australia-liberals-worst-fears-realised-zak-kirkup-unseated">was noted</a> by his political opponents during the count.</p>
<p>For the Liberals it has been a devastating loss: not only have they almost been obliterated from the parliament, but their leader has gone and they are no longer the official opposition - that now goes to the National Party.</p>
<p>One of the earliest seats to call was the seat of Dawesville, held by 34 year old Liberal leader Zak Kirkup. He <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-25/why-would-zak-kirkup-concede-wa-election-defeat/13191804">had already conceded</a> that he could not win the election before a vote had been cast, and his subsequent focus had been on retaining as many Liberal seats as possible.</p>
<p>Another high profile casualty was former Liberal leader Liza Harvey, who lost her seat of Scarborough. Harvey was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-14/wa-liberal-party-blame-starts-as-party-takes-stock-of-election/13245658">blamed by some</a> in Liberal circles for the defeat. As opposition leader in 2020 she had called for WA’s hard border to come down, which was followed immediately by the COVID-19 outbreak in Victoria.</p>
<p>At this stage, it looks like the extraordinary support for Labor will translate into an <a href="https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2021">upper house majority</a> for the first time for Labor. It is worth noting that Liberal-National governments in WA have regularly controlled both houses of parliament while in government. While the Nationals occasionally voted differently from the Liberals, being in cabinet meant this was a rarity. Control of both houses should mean government bills will pass into law with little resistance.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-obliterates-liberals-in-historic-wa-election-will-win-control-of-upper-house-for-first-time-156203">Labor obliterates Liberals in historic WA election; will win control of upper house for first time</a>
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<h2>Is WA a one-party state?</h2>
<p>While there will be at least six Liberal or National MPs in the 59 seat lower house, and a much higher number of non-government MPs in the upper house, there is no doubt the McGowan government will dominate proceedings in parliament.</p>
<p>Such is the imbalance, though, that it raises questions of accountability. Parliament is the principal body of accountability for governments in our democratic system, and it is critical parliamentary processes that typically hold government to account are maintained. Opposition parties need resources to research contentious issues, investigate complaints, and develop alternative policies.</p>
<p>It is critical oppositions are able to ask questions without notice in question time, put detailed questions on notice to the government in the Legislative Council, and have a presence on parliamentary committees that investigate issues arising in government and in the broader community. Most importantly, they need the resources to scrutinise bills which are introduced into either house.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-mark-mcgowan-the-wa-leader-with-a-staggering-88-personal-approval-rating-156293">Meet Mark McGowan: the WA leader with a staggering 88% personal approval rating</a>
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<p>There are dangers for the government itself in having a large majority. Some Labor members may struggle to have their voices heard in such a large party room. There will be increased competition for all manner of roles in government, starting with positions in the new Labor ministry, and disappointment may lead to discontent and in-fighting within the partyroom. </p>
<p>Governments that control both houses run the risk of passing poorly-structured legislation. Parliamentary scrutiny leads to better governance, a factor that in the long run helps governments as much as oppositions. One factor in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-11-25/workchoices-blamed-for-election-loss/967664">demise of the long-running Howard government</a> was the passage of its “workchoices” legislation, achieved during a rare incidence of government controlling both houses of the federal parliament.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389405/original/file-20210314-19-477jgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">WA Liberals have been all but obliterated in the state election, with leader Zak Kirkup among those who lost their seats.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span>
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<h2>Federal implications</h2>
<p>There will no doubt be some pundits who draw federal implications from Labor’s stunning victory, but it is worth remembering that neither Scott Morrison nor Anthony Albanese featured in the campaigns of either party. Albanese <a href="https://www.albanyadvertiser.com.au/politics/albanese-mcgowan-hold-separate-wa-events-ng-s-2051917">did visit WA during the campaign period</a>, but did not join McGowan on the campaign trail.</p>
<p>Western Australia has long been a traditional heartland for the federal Liberals, and they currently hold 11 of the 16 seats here. Federal Liberals from WA have been punching well above their weight in the federal government. But Morrison has not visited Western Australia since October 2019, and two of his senior ministers from WA are both on leave with <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/to-save-himself-pm-must-sacrifice-reynolds-and-porter/news-story/eff8ef0b35987def91476d98146c5a5c">their futures under a cloud</a>.</p>
<p>Any suggestion of trying to overlay these results onto federal seats is a fraught exercise. But there is one thing we know for sure: there will be a lot fewer people in WA working for the Liberal party in paid positions than there were before the election. This will affect the ability of Liberals to strategise, and organise on the ground.</p>
<p>The organisational structure of the party has come under scrutiny in recent times, amid <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-14/the-wa-election-has-left-the-liberal-party-in-ruins-analysis/13244530">fears that the WA branch</a> is dominated by a small group of powerbrokers. Maintaining robust structures for campaigning will be crucial with a federal election due within the next year.</p>
<p>But there are a few positives that the federal government may take out of the campaign. First, WA voters have consistently voted differently at state and federal level. And Morrison, while not enjoying the popularity of McGowan, is <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/newspoll-scott-morrison-holds-dominant-lead-over-anthony-albanese/news-story/cecde1e1535527e00ba7465d9da2aa19">more popular than his opponent</a>. The WA election also marks the fourth straight state or territory election during COVID-19 where the incumbent government has been returned. It is clear incumbency and competent management are distinct advantages during a pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Drum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With Mark McGowan’s government set to control both house houses of parliament, there will be questions of accountability. For the Liberals, there will be questions of relevance.Martin Drum, Lecturer Politics and International Relations, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1562032021-03-13T22:10:44Z2021-03-13T22:10:44ZLabor obliterates Liberals in historic WA election; will win control of upper house for first time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389393/original/file-20210313-15-1qochu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 43% of enrolled voters counted in yesterday’s Western Australian election, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az">ABC was calling</a> Labor wins in 49 of the 59 lower house seats, to just two for the Liberals and three for the Nationals. Five seats remained in doubt. </p>
<p>The current final outcome prediction is 52 Labor, three Liberals and four Nationals. Since the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/preview">2017 election</a>, this would be an 11-seat gain for Labor and a 10-seat loss for the Liberals. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/results?filter=changing&sort=az">Liberal casualties</a> included current leader Zak Kirkup’s seat of Dawesville, and former leader Liza Harvey’s Scarborough.</p>
<p>Statewide primary vote shares were a massive 59.1% for Labor (up 16.9% since 2017), 21.3% Liberals (down 9.9%), 4.5% National (down 0.9%), 7.1% Greens (down 1.8%) and just 1.3% for One Nation (down 3.7%). The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/wa2021/Results/?">Poll Bludger’s</a> statewide two party projection is 69.2-30.8 to Labor, a 13.7% swing to Labor.</p>
<p>With 30.8% of the upper house vote counted, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/lc-results">ABC’s group ticket voting</a> calculators are giving Labor 22 of the 36 seats (up eight), the Liberals six (down three), the Nationals four (steady), Legalise Cannabis two (up two), the Shooters and Fishers one (steady) and the Greens one (down three).</p>
<p>Current results show Labor winning 20 of its 22 seats on raw quotas without requiring preferences. They need a small amount of preferences to win three seats in Agricultural region and four in North Metropolitan. Labor is set to win the heavily malapportioned upper house for the first time in its history.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whopping-lead-for-labor-ahead-of-wa-election-but-federal-newspoll-deadlocked-at-50-50-155735">Whopping lead for Labor ahead of WA election, but federal Newspoll deadlocked at 50-50</a>
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<h2>Why this result occurred</h2>
<p>As I wrote <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-election-could-be-historical-labor-landslide-but-party-with-less-than-1-vote-may-win-upper-house-seat-156202">recently</a>, the current 69-31 two party result is probably the most lopsided ever in Australian electoral history for any state or federally. Labor’s primary vote may drop back as more votes are counted, but will be at least roughly level with the combined National and Liberal vote at the Queensland 1974 election.</p>
<p>With the opposite party in power federally, and campaigning for its second term, Labor was likely to win unless they had major stuff-ups. But Premier Mark McGowan’s handling of COVID created this record landslide. </p>
<p>Imposing hard borders to stop the spread was very popular, and with relatively few cases in WA, life remained relatively normal with the exception of a five-day lockdown in early February. In the final <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/03/13/newspoll-66-34-to-labor-in-western-australia/">pre-election Newspoll</a>, McGowan’s ratings were 88% satisfied and just 10% dissatisfied.</p>
<p>I do not think there are federal implications from this massive Labor victory at the state level. While not at McGowan’s levels, Scott Morrison was still very popular by historical standards at 64% satisfied, 32% dissatisfied in the last federal Newspoll.</p>
<p>If being perceived as dealing well with COVID is a criterion for a successful re-election, the federal Coalition would be likely to win now.</p>
<p>In February 2001, Peter Beattie led Queensland Labor to 66 of the 89 lower house seats, to just 15 for the Coalition parties. But in <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/Stats_CDRom.htm#cd">November 2001</a>, the federal Coalition under John Howard was re-elected, with the Coalition winning 19 of the 27 federal Queeensland seats.</p>
<p>Many people did not believe the 68-32 Newspoll three weeks ago, and the final pre-election Newspoll (66-34) was also hard to believe. But Labor has exceeded both these Newspolls. A YouGov poll of <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/03/12/yougov-60-40-to-labor-in-dawesville/">Dawesville</a> had Labor winning by 60-40; it’s currently 64.5-35.5. Expecting outcomes to be narrower than polls indicate can be a big mistake.</p>
<h2>Biden’s $US 1.9 trillion stimulus becomes law</h2>
<p>To revive the US economy from its COVID-induced recession, President Joe Biden proposed a $US 1.9 trillion stimulus. On March 6, this stimulus <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Rescue_Plan_Act_of_2021">passed the US Senate</a> on a 50-49 vote, with all 50 Democrats in support and all Republicans opposed; one Republican missed the vote.</p>
<p>Had the vote been tied at 50-50, Vice President Kamala Harris would have broken the tie. This stimulus vote shows how important the two narrow Democratic wins in the January 5 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/results-georgia-runoffs.html">Georgia Senate runoffs</a> were. </p>
<p>Without those victories, there is no possibility this stimulus would have become law, and Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell would still control the Senate’s agenda, enabling him to deny votes on items he disliked.</p>
<p>On Wednesday the House of Representatives, which had earlier passed its own version of the stimulus, agreed to the Senate’s amendments by a 220-211 margin. Biden signed the stimulus into law on Thursday. All Republicans who voted in either chamber of Congress opposed the stimulus.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The WA Liberals’ near wipe-out includes the seat of Opposition Leader Zak Kirkup.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1562932021-03-08T19:05:42Z2021-03-08T19:05:42ZMeet Mark McGowan: the WA leader with a staggering 88% personal approval rating<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387910/original/file-20210305-16-1wm6fok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=65%2C0%2C4772%2C2745&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/ AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last March, Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan donned an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-02/acdc-tribute-highway-to-hell-rocks-perth/12015120">AC/DC t-shirt</a> to pay tribute to Bon Scott, the late lead singer of the legendary band.</p>
<p>He joined some 150,000 fans who gathered along Perth’s Canning Highway to hear bands covering “Highway to Hell” and other AC/DC classics.</p>
<p>In the 12 months since, the world has certainly been to hell and back. Politically, however, for McGowan the year may feel more like a stairway to heaven. With the state election due on March 13, <a href="https://theconversation.com/whopping-lead-for-labor-ahead-of-wa-election-but-federal-newspoll-deadlocked-at-50-50-155735">polls suggest</a> he will win easily, and even increase Labor’s already record majority. His personal approval rating sits at a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/20/gospel-according-to-mark-can-anything-stop-western-australias-covid-saviours-re-election">staggering 88%</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whopping-lead-for-labor-ahead-of-wa-election-but-federal-newspoll-deadlocked-at-50-50-155735">Whopping lead for Labor ahead of WA election, but federal Newspoll deadlocked at 50-50</a>
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<p>But polling is one thing, celebrity status is another. And McGowan’s popularity is bordering on rock star status in some quarters.</p>
<p>In recent weeks, a voter has willingly <a href="https://7news.com.au/news/wa/is-this-the-most-wa-tattoo-ever-punter-makes-premier-mark-mcgowan-permanent-c-2149648">tattooed a likeness of McGowan’s face</a> on their body, a local comedian has written a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-INs8dNK9cU&t=1s">song of devotion</a> to him, a wedding party <a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/mark-mcgowan/wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-crashes-perth-wedding-gets-rockstar-welcome-ng-b881803144z">hauled him on stage</a> to speak to 300 cheering guests, and a video of the Premier’s dance moves at the Perth Fringe has <a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/mark-mcgowan/best-viral-videos-on-tiktok-starring-wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-ng-b881790028z">gone viral on TikTok</a>.</p>
<p>Who is McGowan, and why is the 53-year-old enjoying such a huge poll lead? And what lies in store on the other side of the election?</p>
<h2>From the navy to state politics</h2>
<p>Originally from regional New South Wales, McGowan joined the navy as a lawyer. In 1991 he was posted to HMAS Stirling near Rockingham, 50 kilometres south of Perth. In 1995, he won a <a href="https://thewest.com.au/news/australia/how-mcgowan-saved-mans-life-ng-ya-333779">bravery commendation</a> for rescuing a man from a burning car. </p>
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<img alt="WA Premier Mark McGowan and his wife Sarah casting their votes at a pre-polling booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387911/original/file-20210305-15-1s27ser.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387911/original/file-20210305-15-1s27ser.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387911/original/file-20210305-15-1s27ser.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387911/original/file-20210305-15-1s27ser.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387911/original/file-20210305-15-1s27ser.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387911/original/file-20210305-15-1s27ser.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387911/original/file-20210305-15-1s27ser.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">WA Premier Mark McGowan and his wife Sarah cast their votes last week at a pre-polling booth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/ AAP</span></span>
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<p>He has been Rockingham’s local MP since 1996 — the second longest-serving MP in state parliament. He entered Geoff Gallop’s cabinet in 2005 and is seen to have chalked up solid achievements in environment, education and perhaps most notably in loosening regulations to encourage small bars.</p>
<p>With Labor in opposition, he took over as leader in 2012, only to see his party go backwards at the 2013 election. He then resisted a far-fetched <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/wa-labor-leadership-challenge-stephen-smiths-coup-is-over-20160315-gnjbwu.html">leadership challenge</a> from former federal minister Stephen Smith before finally <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-11/barnetts-reign-in-wa-over-as-labor-enjoys-huge-swing/8346296">winning a record victory</a> in 2017 against Colin Barnett and the Liberal Party.</p>
<h2>The WA factor</h2>
<p>Most Australian political leaders saw their popularity grow during COVID-19, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/trust-in-government-soars-in-australia-and-new-zealand-during-pandemic-154948">trust in governments rising</a> as Australia performed well, minimising health and economic impacts. </p>
<p>But WA provides particularly fertile ground for a leader. The state has always had a strongly independent streak, distant from “the eastern states”. It also firmly believes its mining and gas resources are the basis for Australia’s economic prosperity and that the proceeds have not — until a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-14/gst-explainer-how-will-wa-spend-its-windfall/10493500">recent GST deal</a> — flowed back to the state.</p>
<p>McGowan played this situation adroitly, declaring in early April 2020 that WA would become an “<a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/an-island-within-an-island-wa-to-close-its-border-with-the-east-20200402-p54gl6.html">island within an island</a>” by closing its borders. He took a firm line on international cruise ships. His public image was ubiquitous with daily media briefings, and softened by his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6v5Zx41y64">spontaneous response to a media query</a> about buying a kebab, of all things, which also <a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/lifestyle/fashion/mark-mcgowan-quote-about-running-and-kebabs-makes-it-to-eastern-states-jumper-ng-b881665052z">went viral</a>.</p>
<p>He successfully fended off a <a href="https://theconversation.com/clive-palmer-just-lost-his-wa-border-challenge-but-the-legality-of-state-closures-is-still-uncertain-149627">High Court challenge</a> to WA’s hard border from businessman Clive Palmer as well as the mining magnate’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wa-government-legislated-itself-a-win-in-its-dispute-with-clive-palmer-and-put-itself-above-the-law-144360">claim</a> the state owes him A$30 billion. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/clive-palmer-just-lost-his-wa-border-challenge-but-the-legality-of-state-closures-is-still-uncertain-149627">Clive Palmer just lost his WA border challenge — but the legality of state closures is still uncertain</a>
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<p>Meanwhile, McGowan worked with the mining industry to keep production going by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-19/wa-pushes-for-fifo-workers-to-resettle-there-after-covid-19/12259516">transferring</a> interstate fly-in fly-out workers to WA. He was rewarded as iron ore prices skyrocketed and the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-14/wa-budget-mid-year-review-economy-roaring-to-life-treasurer-says/12981008">state’s finances grew</a>. Regional tourism has revived and the state’s economy recovered more quickly than <a href="https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/McGowan/2020/09/WA-leading-Australias-COVID-19-economic-recovery.aspx">interstate counterparts</a>. </p>
<p>Since mid-2020 daily life in WA has been largely normal again, despite a blip in January when a <a href="https://theconversation.com/perths-5-day-circuit-breaker-lockdown-isnt-an-overreaction-to-a-single-case-its-basic-common-sense-154348">short lockdown was imposed</a>, due to a hotel quarantine breach.</p>
<p>Of course, it’s not all bouquets. The <a href="https://wacoss.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/State-Budget-Submission-2020-2021.pdf">Western Australian Council of Social Service</a> has called on the McGowan government to do more to address child poverty, improve housing affordability and reduce the over-representation of Aboriginal young people in out-of-home care and juvenile justice. <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/too-close-to-the-flame-wa-government-accused-of-being-limp-on-climate-change-after-revolving-doors-with-oil-and-gas-giants-20201124-p56hi4.html">Critics have described</a> his government’s efforts to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for its greenhouse gas emissions as “limp”. Plenty outside the state have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-31/wa-reintroduces-hard-border-with-victoria-after-melbourne-cases/13023398">condemned</a> some of the WA government’s snap decisions on COVID border closures.</p>
<p>Despite all that, McGowan’s government remains enormously popular where it counts: among WA voters.</p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>Assuming he wins — and wins big — on 13 March, what are the challenges and opportunities facing McGowan and his government?</p>
<p>Economically, WA appears in a strong position, and Labor’s election campaign has focused on more job creation. But the state is always subject to international commodity cycles, while tensions in Australia’s relationship with China — the main customer of WA iron ore — add a new element of risk.</p>
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<img alt="Portraits of Zak Kirkup and Mark McGowan." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387912/original/file-20210305-18-17sdo0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387912/original/file-20210305-18-17sdo0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387912/original/file-20210305-18-17sdo0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387912/original/file-20210305-18-17sdo0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387912/original/file-20210305-18-17sdo0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387912/original/file-20210305-18-17sdo0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387912/original/file-20210305-18-17sdo0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Liberal leader Zak Kirkup has already conceded he cannot win the election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/ AAP</span></span>
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<p>Socially, dealing with homelessness and rising house prices and rents will be on the agenda, after several years of relative stagnation in the property market.</p>
<p>Politically, despite Liberal warnings of Labor gaining “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-25/why-would-zak-kirkup-concede-wa-election-defeat/13191804">total control</a>” of parliament, it is highly unlikely McGowan can secure an outright majority in the upper house, given the high levels of <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/an-affront-to-anyone-who-believes-in-democracy/">rural malapportionment</a>. But there is a chance that Labor and the Greens combined could win an upper house majority for the first time. </p>
<p>This could put pressure around issues such as carbon emission reductions, where WA Labor has generally been happy to let Canberra take the lead. More prosaically, the prospect of a big win means McGowan will have to find ways of managing a large backbench that will inevitably include restive MPs with thwarted cabinet ambitions.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-liberals-face-electoral-wipeout-in-wa-but-have-3-good-reasons-to-keep-campaigning-156123">The Liberals face electoral wipeout in WA, but have 3 good reasons to keep campaigning</a>
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<p>However, the prime concern will be to avoid complacency and overreach, especially if the opposition is weak. WA governments tend to win two terms. A big win for McGowan may make a third term seem inevitable, but upsets like the Liberal National Party’s 2015 loss in Queensland show elections can’t be taken for granted. </p>
<p>But for now, the WA Liberals, under leader Zak Kirkup, appear to be on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-liberals-face-electoral-wipeout-in-wa-but-have-3-good-reasons-to-keep-campaigning-156123">road to nowhere</a>. For Mark McGowan, it’s been a long way to the top. He is in no hurry to come down.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156293/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Phillimore has previously worked as an adviser to state Labor governments in Western Australia, most recently in 2007.</span></em></p>Ahead of the state election on March 13, WA’s premier is enjoying a huge poll lead. He is so popular, a voter even got a tattoo of McGowan’s face.John Phillimore, Executive Director, John Curtin Institute of Public Policy, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1557352021-02-22T03:55:32Z2021-02-22T03:55:32ZWhopping lead for Labor ahead of WA election, but federal Newspoll deadlocked at 50-50<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385452/original/file-20210222-17-s6q682.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C337%2C3993%2C2337&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With less than three weeks left until the March 13 Western Australian election, the <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/popular-premier-mark-mcgowan-to-lead-wipeout-in-the-west/news-story/b6d8d964ec454ca28d7cd1a16e6a3a48">latest Newspoll</a> gives Labor a 68-32 lead, two-party-preferred. If replicated on election day, this would be a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/anxiety-for-both-sides-over-newspoll-polling-swing/news-story/ad12172d2db728cf60698049a524cefe">12.5% swing</a> to Labor from the 2017 election two party result. </p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/02/wa-2021-how-lopsided-do-you-want-it.html">Kevin Bonham</a> describes the Newspoll result as “scarcely processable” and says it is the most lopsided result in Newspoll history for any state or federally.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 59% for Labor, up from 42.2% at the 2017 election, 23% for the Liberals (down from 31.2% in 2017), 2% National (5.4%), 8% Greens (8.9%) and 3% One Nation (4.9%). This poll was conducted February 12-18 from a sample of 1,034.</p>
<p>Premier Mark McGowan had an 88% satisfied rating with 10% dissatisfied (net +78), while Liberal opposition leader <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-24/zak-kirkup-elected-unopposed-as-new-wa-liberal-party-leader/12913004">Zak Kirkup</a> was at 29% satisfied, 41% dissatisfied (net -12). McGowan led Kirkup as “better premier” by a crushing 83 to 10.</p>
<h2>A pandemic boost?</h2>
<p>Other recent polls have been strong, albeit less spectacular for Labor. Bonham refers to a January 30 uComms poll that gave Labor a 61-39 lead, from primary votes of 46.8% Labor, 27.5% Liberal, 5.1% National, 8.3% Greens and 6.9% One Nation.</p>
<p>There is also a pattern here. Since the pandemic began, governments that have managed to keep COVID cases down have been rewarded. This includes Queensland and New Zealand Labo(u)r governments at their <a href="https://theconversation.com/labo-u-r-easily-wins-in-both-new-zealand-and-the-act-and-leads-in-queensland-147985">respective October elections last year</a>.</p>
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<img alt="WA Liberal leader Zak Kirkup." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385454/original/file-20210222-23-1ua41fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Zak Kirkup was only elected as WA’s Liberal leader last November.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
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<p>McGowan’s imposition of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/20/gospel-according-to-mark-can-anything-stop-western-australias-covid-saviours-re-election">hard WA border</a> to restrict COVID has boosted both his and Labor’s popularity. There have been relatively few WA COVID cases, and life has been comparably normal with the exception of a five-day lockdown in early February.</p>
<h2>Upper house a different story</h2>
<p>But it’s not all good news for McGowan. While Labor will easily win a majority in the lower house, it will be much harder for the ALP and the Greens to win an upper house majority. The upper house suffers from both a high degree of <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/the-four-changes-needed-to-bring-wa-s-political-system-up-to-scratch-20190220-p50z5n.html">rural malapportionment</a> (where there are relatively fewer voters per member) and group ticket voting.</p>
<p>Group ticket voting, in which parties direct the preferences of their voters, was abolished in the federal Senate before the 2016 election, but continues to blight elections in both Victoria and WA.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-upper-house-greatly-distorted-by-group-voting-tickets-federal-labor-still-dominant-in-newspoll-108488">Victorian upper house greatly distorted by group voting tickets; federal Labor still dominant in Newspoll</a>
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<p>There are six WA upper house regions that each return six members, so a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. While Perth has <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/5GPER?opendocument">79% of the overall</a> WA population, it receives just half of upper house seats.</p>
<p>There is also malapportionment in non-metropolian regions. According to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/lc-preview">ABC’s election guide</a>, the south west region has 14% of enrolled voters, the heavily anti-Labor agricultural region has just 6% of voters and the mining and pastoral region 4%. All regions return six members. </p>
<p>Despite the convincing lower house win in 2017, Labor and the Greens combined won 18 of the 36 upper house seats, one short of a majority. Bonham <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/02/wa-2021-how-lopsided-do-you-want-it.html">notes</a> if the Newspoll swings were replicated uniformly in the upper house, Labor would win 19 of the 36 seats in its own right on filled quotas without needing preferences.</p>
<p>But group ticket voting and malapportionment could see Labor and the Greens fall short of an upper house majority again if Labor’s win is more like the uComms poll than Newspoll.</p>
<h2>Federal Newspoll still tied at 50-50</h2>
<p>This week’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll">federal Newspoll</a>, conducted February 17-20 from a sample of 1,504, had the two party preferred tied at 50-50, the same as three weeks ago. Primary votes were 42% Coalition (steady), 37% Labor (up one), 10% Greens (steady) and 3% One Nation (steady).</p>
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<img alt="Labor leader Anthony Albanese and Prime Minister Scott Morrison look towards the Speaker's chair in Parliament." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C7%2C5035%2C2938&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385451/original/file-20210222-23-1j1exia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Newspoll continues to have the Coalition and Labor neck and neck.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Of those polled, 64% were satisfied with Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s performance (up one), and 32% were dissatisfied (down one), for a net approval of +32. Labor leader Anthony Albanese dropped five points on net approval to -7. Morrison led Albanese by 61-26 as better prime minister (compared to 57-29 three weeks ago). </p>
<p>During the last week, there has been much media attention on the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/22/third-woman-says-she-was-sexually-assaulted-by-man-accused-of-raping-brittany-higgins">rape allegations</a> made by former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins against an unnamed colleague. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brittany-higgins-will-lay-complaint-over-alleged-rape-and-wants-a-role-in-framing-workplace-inquiry-155661">Brittany Higgins will lay complaint over alleged rape – and wants a role in framing workplace inquiry</a>
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<p>However, it appears the general electorate perceives this issue as being unimportant compared to the COVID crisis. Albanese’s ratings may have suffered owing to the perception that Labor has focussed too much and being too negative on an “unimportant” issue.</p>
<p>Despite Morrison’s continued strong approval ratings and the slump for Albanese, the most important measure — voting intentions — is tied. Since the start of the COVID crisis, there has been a continued discrepancy between voting intentions based off Morrison’s ratings and actual voting intentions.</p>
<p>Newspoll is not alone in showing a close race on voting intentions or strong ratings for Morrison. A <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8648-federal-voting-intention-february-2021-202102181348">Morgan poll</a>, conducted in early to mid February, gave Labor a 50.5-49.5 lead. Last week’s <a href="https://essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Essential-Report-150221.pdf">Essential poll</a> gave Morrison a 65-28 approval rating (net +37).</p>
<h2>Labor bump in Craig Kelly’s seat</h2>
<p>As reported in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/22/craig-kelly-in-trouble-in-hughes-over-support-for-unproven-covid-therapies-poll-finds">The Guardian</a>, a uComms robopoll in controversial Liberal MP Craig Kelly’s seat of Hughes has Kelly leading by 55-45. This is about a 5% swing to Labor from the 2019 election result. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Liberal MP for Hughes Craig Kelly." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385456/original/file-20210222-17-z6e4bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Liberal MP Craig Kelly has recently been banned by Facebook for promoting alternative, medically unproven COVID-19 treatments on social media.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The poll was conducted February 18 from a sample of 683 for the community group Hughes Deserves Better.</p>
<p>While additional questions are often skewed in favour of the position of the group commissioning uComms polls, voting intention questions are always asked first. However, individual seat polls <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/07/why-is-seat-polling-so-inaccurate.html">have been unreliable</a> in Australia.</p>
<h2>Trump acquitted by US Senate</h2>
<p>As I predicted <a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-say-labor-and-coalition-in-a-50-50-tie-trump-set-to-be-acquitted-by-us-senate-154370">three weeks</a> ago, Donald Trump was <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-evades-conviction-again-as-republicans-opt-for-self-preservation-155283">comfortably acquitted</a> by the United States’ Senate on February 13 on charges of inciting the January 6 riots. </p>
<p>The vote was 57-43 in favour of conviction, but short of the two-thirds majority required. Seven of the 50 Republican senators joined all 50 Democrats in voting to convict.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155735/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One analyst describes Labor’s lead in WA as “scarcely possible”, while new focus on sexual assault at Parliament House has not had an impact on the latest federal Newspoll.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1529662021-01-11T19:08:51Z2021-01-11T19:08:51ZWhat Clive Palmer must now ask himself: would China’s ‘bastards’ buy a mine from him?<p>Colourful mining magnate Clive Palmer’s political ambitions appear to be in tatters. But what of his multibillion-dollar legal ambitions?</p>
<p>On Sunday he announced his United Australia Party will not contest Western Australia’s state election in March – a logical decision given his party attracted just <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results/party-totals">0.6% of the vote</a> in the November election in his home state of Queensland. </p>
<p>But he has not withdrawn his defamation case in the Federal Court of Australia against Western Australian premier Mark McGowan, over statements including comments about Palmer’s claim for up to A$30 billion in damages from the WA government over a stalled iron ore project.</p>
<p>The damages claim has to do with the WA government imposing conditions in 2012 on a proposal by Palmer’s company Minerology Pty Ltd to develop the <a href="https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/proposals/balmoral-south-iron-ore-project-cape-preston-wa">Balmoral South Iron Ore mine</a> in the Pilbara. Those conditions, Palmer’s lawyers have argued, meant Minerology was unable to develop the mine, and thus suffered financial loss due to then being unable to sell the project to Chinese interests.</p>
<p>In arbitration proceedings Palmer’s lawyers have won several points in their bid to have these conditions declared invalid. The WA government was sufficiently worried about its exposure to hastily pass, in August 2020, unprecedented “<a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Parliament/Bills.nsf/BillProgressPopup?openForm&ParentUNID=2F1CFD31ACD372EE482585C100337061">emergency legislation</a>” to prevent Palmer pursuing damages. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wa-government-legislated-itself-a-win-in-its-dispute-with-clive-palmer-and-put-itself-above-the-law-144360">The WA government legislated itself a win in its dispute with Clive Palmer — and put itself above the law</a>
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<p>Palmer has since applied to Australia’s High Court to have the WA legislation declared invalid. </p>
<p>But whether the High Court action goes ahead is not the bottom-line question. Even if it does hear his case, and declares the WA legislation invalid, it’s still far from certain Minerology could then go on to win damages.</p>
<h2>The ‘first tier’ hurdle: who would buy from him</h2>
<p>The legal precedent governing Palmer’s claim for damages are contained in a 1994 High Court decision in <a href="http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1994/4.html"><em>Sellars v Adelaide Petroleum</em></a>. This involved an appeal by Mark Sellars, a director of mining company Poseidon Ltd, and Poseidon itself, against a Federal Court decision that awarded damages to minerals exploration company Adelaide Petroleum due to losses suffered as a result of misleading statements by Poseidon and Sellars.</p>
<p>The High Court ruled against Sellars and Poseidon. The significant point in the decision was the principle the judges explained in making their ruling. A court must, with the advantage of hindsight, look at everything that took place and ask if it was more likely than not (in other words, if there was a 51% chance or more) that, even if wrongdoing occurred, it led to a lost commercial opportunity. </p>
<p>This is the “first tier” to be overcome to recover damages.</p>
<p>Applying the <em>Sellars v Adelaide Petroleum</em> principle to Palmer’s claim, the issue becomes whether, because of the WA governent’s conditions, Minerology more likely than not lost the opportunity to sell the mine to Chinese interests. More pointedly, was it more likely than not Chinese interests would have bought the mine from Palmer?</p>
<h2>Sour dealings with Chinese partners</h2>
<p>With the benefit of “hindsight”, any court would need to consider Palmer’s history with Chinese business partners.</p>
<p>One of those is his long and bitter legal feud with CITIC Pacific Mining, the powerful state-owned enterprise that operates the <a href="https://citicpacificmining.com/our-operation">Sino Iron project</a>, Australia’s largest magnetite iron ore mine, on Minerology-controlled tenements. </p>
<p>In 2014, Palmer accused CITIC of dudding him on royalty payments. CITIC, in turn, accused Palmer <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/business-spectator/news-story/clive-palmers-dangerous-chinese-misstep/223a955b7b00d8b26756e0262f9d70f8">of siphoning off funds</a> to pay for his election campaigns. (Palmer won the Queensland seat of Fairfax at the 2013 federal election, and two UAP candidates, Glenn Lazarus and Jacqui Lambie, won Senate seats.) </p>
<p>China’s leading business publication, <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/">Caixin</a>, quoted an unnamed CITIC executive as saying Palmer’s attempt “to swindle money from us” would “have grave consequences for foreign investors and in particular Chinese investors”. </p>
<p>The dispute led to several cases in WA’s Supreme Court. A 2017 ruling awarded Minerology A$200 million in back payments, as well as ongoing royalties then worth about A$400 million a year. (CITIC’s appeal <a href="https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/1m-pay-days-continue-for-clive-palmers-mineralogy-after-citic-fails-in-appeals-bid-against-sino-iron-royalty-payments-ng-b881206150z?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&tid=1558505403040">was rejected in 2019</a>). But in 2020 the court threw out Minerology’s case for about A$300 million more from CITIC as an “<a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/palmer-loses-us200m-court-case-wins-on-us400m-a-year-in-royalties-20200214-p540ux">abuse of process</a>”. </p>
<p>But just as damaging to Palmer’s dealings with the Chinese were his statements on national television in August 2014, in which he said the Chinese government wanted to “take over our ports and get our resources for free”, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/government-extending-olive-branch-to-china-after-palmer-tirade/5681118?nw=0">called Chinese officials</a> “bastards” and “mongrels”.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Clive Palmer calls the Chinese government bastards on ABC’s Q&A program.</span></figcaption>
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<p>So even if the High Court clears the way for Minerology to pursue its damages claim against the Western Australian government, there’s an argument to be made that Chinese interests would have been more likely than not to decline to do business with Palmer.</p>
<p>If so, Palmer would recover no damages.</p>
<h2>The ‘second tier’ hurdle: quantifying the loss</h2>
<p>There is also a second-tier hurdle to overcome if a court decides, for all the bad blood, that Chinese interests would have let bygones be bygones and be prepared to deal with Palmer.</p>
<p>In assessing the plaintiff’s actual loss, the court will need to consider every contingency that might affect that loss. It was held in <em>Sellars v Adelaide Petroleum</em> that to calculate the actual damage, what is called the “degree of possibilities” approach must be applied. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-clive-palmer-could-challenge-the-act-designed-to-stop-him-getting-30-billion-145098">How Clive Palmer could challenge the act designed to stop him getting $30 billion</a>
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<p>This approach means the court must look at the price of iron ore at the time the mine would have been ready for sale, what a potential buyer would be prepared to pay for the mine, and thus what loss has been incurred. This cannot be a precise exercise; the court just does its best.</p>
<p>But it’s the first hurdle that Palmer needs to get over first.</p>
<p>So even if he chances his arm in the High Court, and wins, he and his lawyers still have a legal mountain to climb. Establishing his actual entitlement to damages is likely to prove troublesome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152966/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kenneth Yin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Clive Palmer pursues his claim against the Western Australian government in the High Court, and wins, he’s still got a big legal hurdle to overcome.Kenneth Yin, Lecturer in law, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1479982020-10-16T03:16:27Z2020-10-16T03:16:27ZBlunders aside, most Australians believe state premiers have been effective leaders during pandemic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363839/original/file-20201016-23-sijlf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since 2018, we have tracked public perceptions of the leadership of various Australian institutions — including government — as part of our <a href="https://www.australianleadershipindex.org">Australian Leadership Index</a>.</p>
<p>Before the COVID-19 pandemic worsened in Australia in March, public perceptions of the federal and state governments were consistently poor. Political leaders were seen to be serving themselves and other vested interests, rather than the public interest.</p>
<p>However, since the start of the pandemic and the establishment of the National Cabinet in March, <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/306041">this has begun to change</a>. </p>
<p>We collected data at three points during the pandemic — March, June and September. And for the first time since our data collection began in 2018, a majority of people said they felt the federal and state governments were exhibiting leadership for the greater good. </p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363854/original/file-20201016-15-1ffw2o4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363854/original/file-20201016-15-1ffw2o4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363854/original/file-20201016-15-1ffw2o4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363854/original/file-20201016-15-1ffw2o4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363854/original/file-20201016-15-1ffw2o4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363854/original/file-20201016-15-1ffw2o4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363854/original/file-20201016-15-1ffw2o4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>State government leadership has improved since March</h2>
<p>We have also tracked how the public has viewed the leadership of individual state governments. </p>
<p>While all state governments improved in our surveys from March to September, there have been marked differences in their approval ratings.</p>
<p>The government of WA Premier Mark McGowan has consistently been viewed as displaying the most leadership for the public good — topping out at 65% of respondents in September. </p>
<p>Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s government, meanwhile, has been at the bottom. Just 30% of our respondents said her government has shown a high degree of leadership for the greater good in September — up from 19% in March.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363856/original/file-20201016-23-1l7wbv6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363856/original/file-20201016-23-1l7wbv6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363856/original/file-20201016-23-1l7wbv6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363856/original/file-20201016-23-1l7wbv6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363856/original/file-20201016-23-1l7wbv6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363856/original/file-20201016-23-1l7wbv6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363856/original/file-20201016-23-1l7wbv6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>These findings are consistent with other surveys — <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-02/mark-mcgowan-coronavirus-leadership-impact-on-2021-wa-election/12205178">Newspoll</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-28/coronavirus-data-feelings-opinions-covid-survey-numbers/12188608">Vox Pop Labs/ABC</a> — from the first wave of the pandemic. </p>
<p>However, perhaps no other leader in the country has been under greater scrutiny than Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews.</p>
<p>Unlike other states, Victoria’s numbers were relatively static from June to September during the state’s harsh second lockdown. In June, 44% of respondents said they believed the Andrews’s government was displaying a high degree of leadership for the greater good, and this modestly improved to 46% in September.</p>
<p>This could be seen as an unexpectedly good result in the context of the hotel quarantine debacle and the prolonged lockdown. </p>
<p>Andrews’s government was not nearly as popular as McGowan’s in our surveys, but it has tracked quite closely to NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s government from March through September, and ahead of the Queensland government.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363842/original/file-20201016-17-168i3w9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363842/original/file-20201016-17-168i3w9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363842/original/file-20201016-17-168i3w9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363842/original/file-20201016-17-168i3w9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363842/original/file-20201016-17-168i3w9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363842/original/file-20201016-17-168i3w9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363842/original/file-20201016-17-168i3w9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Closed borders and a budget surplus have helped buoy McGowan’s popularity in WA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838">Andrews under fire: why an activist premier's greatest challenges may yet lie ahead</a>
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<h2>A tale of two states</h2>
<p>Given the markedly different experience of Victoria and NSW residents during the pandemic, it is instructive to compare public perceptions of both governments’ leadership. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/306040">model</a> that underpins the Australian Leadership Index, the public regards an institution as leading for the greater good when it creates social, environmental and economic value for the whole of society in a way that is transparent, accountable and ethical. At least, this is how people judge leadership in normal times. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-finally-resulting-in-leadership-for-the-greater-good-136508">How the coronavirus pandemic is (finally) resulting in leadership for the greater good</a>
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<p>Among NSW residents, there were some changes in the factors that underpinned perceptions of state government leadership through the pandemic. Transparency became increasingly important, for instance, while balancing the interests of different stakeholders became less so. </p>
<p>There was also a shift in what people felt was needed most by society. In March and June, respondents said good leadership involved creating positive social outcomes for people, but in September, this shifted to creating positive economic outcomes. </p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363869/original/file-20201016-17-1dincro.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363869/original/file-20201016-17-1dincro.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363869/original/file-20201016-17-1dincro.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363869/original/file-20201016-17-1dincro.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363869/original/file-20201016-17-1dincro.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363869/original/file-20201016-17-1dincro.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363869/original/file-20201016-17-1dincro.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>By contrast, among Victorians, there was a marked shift how people viewed good leadership from the first wave (March-June) to the second wave (June-September). </p>
<p>During the first wave, Victorians thought leadership for the common good was served by balancing the needs of different groups and focusing on the creation of positive social outcomes. </p>
<p>By September, however, far more people were concerned about the ethical standards of the government and its accountability. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363870/original/file-20201016-23-112jfaa.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363870/original/file-20201016-23-112jfaa.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363870/original/file-20201016-23-112jfaa.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363870/original/file-20201016-23-112jfaa.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363870/original/file-20201016-23-112jfaa.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363870/original/file-20201016-23-112jfaa.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363870/original/file-20201016-23-112jfaa.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>Will people continue to rate state governments highly?</h2>
<p>Despite the furious debate taking place in the media about personal freedoms and the proportionality of government measures to control the pandemic, at the community level, there appears to have been a more <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/six-months-in-we-owe-it-to-ourselves-to-face-some-challenging-truths-20200918-p55wyt.html">settled attitude</a> to the reality of living in a COVID-19 world.</p>
<p>However, there are signs the public mood is turning and politics-as-usual is returning. State premiers are faltering. Federal and state government solidarity is ebbing away. None of this bodes well for community perceptions of government leadership.</p>
<p>Although leadership for the greater good is a complex, evolving phenomenon, people know it when they see it. Let us hope that political leaders have the moral conviction and imagination to sustain it.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tensions-rise-on-coronavirus-handling-as-the-media-take-control-of-the-accountability-narrative-144195">Tensions rise on coronavirus handling as the media take control of the accountability narrative</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147998/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Wilson receives philanthropic funding for the Australian Leadership Index.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Pallant receives philanthropic funding for the Australian Leadership Index</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Colin Bednall receives philanthropic funding for the Australian Leadership Index.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vlad Demsar receives philanthropic funding for the Australian Leadership Index.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sylvia T. Gray does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows WA Premier Mark McGowan has been rated highest in terms of leadership for the greater good, while Victorian leader Dan Andrews has surprisingly held steady through the second wave.Samuel Wilson, Senior Lecturer in Leadership, Swinburne University of TechnologyJason Pallant, Lecturer of Marketing, Swinburne University of TechnologySylvia T. Gray, Research Assistant and Casual Academic, Swinburne University of TechnologyTimothy Colin Bednall, Senior Lecturer in Management, Fellow of the APS College of Organisational Psychologists, Swinburne University of TechnologyVlad Demsar, Lecturer of Marketing, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456302020-09-04T10:10:27Z2020-09-04T10:10:27ZThe wild west channels those old secessionist dreams by refusing to get on Scott Morrison’s COVID bus<p>The national cabinet, created to impose maximum unity on Australia’s response to COVID, has formally fractured. It hasn’t broken altogether, but the rubber band holding it together has been stretched too far and has now dramatically slackened.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison, who created the body to maximise his authority in a situation where the federal government did not have constitutional power, finally came up against the limits of his construct.</p>
<p>Morrison announced after Friday’s meeting that from now on, national cabinet will no longer operate on a consensus model; it will acknowledge differences rather than striving for unanimity.</p>
<p>Of course, previously there wasn’t unanimity on some critical issues – schools, borders. They were pushed off and states simply went their own ways.</p>
<p>On Friday, seven of the eight states and territories agreed to aim to open things up by Christmas, using some “hotspot” approach as a basis.</p>
<p>Western Australia was the one jurisdiction that opted out. With an election next year and sky-high popularity based on the success of a hard border, WA premier Mark McGowan was never going to limit his options.</p>
<p>The other major rebel, Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk, has signed up to the December aim, but she has left herself the wriggle room she needs.</p>
<p>She hasn’t agreed to a particular definition of a hot spot. The Queensland election will be over by the end of October, and you can be confident she’ll run her own race until then.</p>
<p>Morrison likened the situation to getting people onto a bus. “Not everyone has to get on the bus for the bus to leave the station”, he said. “But it is important the bus leaves the station, and we all agree on that. […] Even when, on occasions, some might not want to get on, they know we need to keep moving forward.” </p>
<p>Morrison originally had hoped to have the health advisers settle on a hotspot definition, on the basis of which he could pressure states to bring down borders.</p>
<p>But it became clear that hope would fall at two hurdles. The federal and state health officials, who come together in the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee, did not all embrace a definition. And the outlier states would not cede their autonomy.</p>
<p>Like the national cabinet, the illusion of unity in the AHPPC – which operated on a “consensus” basis - has ended. The federal government has produced its own definition, but what will be more generally accepted as defining a hotspot remains a work-in-progress.</p>
<p>The federal government has been for weeks trying to arm-twist Queensland in particular. But the power over borders resides with the states, and they will use it when it’s in their interests to do so.</p>
<p>McGowan was blunt. At a news conference after the meeting, he described WA as an “island within an island” (shades of that old WA secessionist feeling), and boasted how well it was doing economically. </p>
<p>“We’re very, very proud West Australians but we’re also loyal Australians. States rights mean that premiers and state governments can do what they have to, in my view, to protect our citizens and protect our jobs. But we’re still part of the commonwealth, we’re still part of the nation. We still serve in the defence forces. We’re still Anzacs.”</p>
<p>He hoped the east of Australia would come to an “even greater appreciation” of what WA did for the country. “We carry the nation’s economy.”</p>
<p>McGowan spoke positively about Morrison; earlier Morrison had stressed special circumstances applied to WA. Their mutual public amiability reflected there had been a test of strength, and McGowan had won. It wasn’t for the first time. Some weeks ago, the federal government pulled out of Clive Palmer’s case against WA, under the weight of WA public opinion.</p>
<p>It’s part of Morrison’s pragmatic style to pivot when he is rebuffed. He seeks another route to his objective. An assertive stance is replaced by a conciliatory one. When you don’t have the power to coerce, you have to cajole.</p>
<p>Morrison wants to encourage Victoria to ease its restrictions as fast as the health imperatives allow; he wants Queensland welcoming tourists. But Dan Andrews’ Sunday roadmap will be cautious. As for Queensland, Morrison will have to wait until after the state election, when Palaszczuk might be more amenable - she did get on the Friday “bus” - or will have been replaced by a compliant new government.</p>
<p>On Thursday, Morrison told parliament the leaders should aim to make Australia “whole” again by Christmas. That deadline is looking very arbitrary.</p>
<p>“Wholeness” will eventually come, but certain conditions will have to be met. The Victorian outbreak must be conquered. The situation in NSW must be further stabilised.</p>
<p>Morrison talks of twin health and economic crises, but the polls suggest the health issue has the dominant grip on the public psyche. Until community transmission is stopped or minimal in Victoria and NSW the public mindset will impede the economic recovery. </p>
<p>Above all, that recovery requires public confidence – and that in turn needs the removal, or near removal, of fear of infection. Even where that fear may be excessive, it has become a roadblock to a return to normality.</p>
<p>What does the recalibration of the national cabinet’s dynamic mean for that institution, much praised when it started?</p>
<p>In the context of the pandemic national cabinet remains useful, despite having taken a bruising this week. It is a clearing house for information; it forces leaders to communicate regularly; it encourages them to seek constructive solutions (even though we have seen that has its limits); it helps cut through bureaucracy.</p>
<p>For the longer term, this week’s experience indicates the national cabinet does not promise a new nirvana of co-operative federalism. But that was always hype.</p>
<p>When a constitution divides power between a central government and state governments, there will inevitably be a mix of conflict and co-operation. What has stood out in the border wars is just how “federalist” the Australian federation can on occasion become.</p>
<p><em>The definition of “COVID-19 hotspot” as provided by Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly can be found <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-040920">here</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145630/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The national cabinet, created to impose maximum unity on Australia’s response to COVID, has formally fractured.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1450982020-09-02T05:01:27Z2020-09-02T05:01:27ZHow Clive Palmer could challenge the act designed to stop him getting $30 billion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355982/original/file-20200902-18-2k7n52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C25%2C2842%2C1850&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The West Australian government recently took the extraordinary step of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wa-government-legislated-itself-a-win-in-its-dispute-with-clive-palmer-and-put-itself-above-the-law-144360">passing legislation</a> to try to stop mining magnate Clive Palmer from collecting about $30 billion in damages from the state. </p>
<p>As Premier Mark McGowan argues, such a hefty bill <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/liberals-line-up-to-blast-mcgowan-s-claim-palmer-lawsuit-would-close-hospitals-schools-20200814-p55lqv.html">risks bankrupting WA</a>. </p>
<p>While the so-called “<a href="https://www.legislation.wa.gov.au/legislation/prod/filestore.nsf/FileURL/mrdoc_43095.htm/$FILE/Iron%20Ore%20Processing%20(Mineralogy%20Pty%20Ltd)%20Agreement%20Amendment%20Act%202020%20-%20%5B00-00-00%5D.html?OpenElement">Mineralogy Act</a>” passed state parliament in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-14/clive-palmer-wa-row-not-over-despite-laws-to-block-damages-claim/12556616">just two days</a>, it is far from straightforward. </p>
<p>It raises a host of questions that are likely to be tested in courts in the months - and possibly years - ahead. </p>
<h2>What is this dispute about?</h2>
<p>Palmer is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-are-the-disputes-involving-clive-palmer-and-the-wa-government-about-20200819-p55ndk.html">no stranger to litigation</a>. Recently, he has also been fighting the WA government over <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-court-finds-border-closures-safest-way-to-protect-public-health-in-clive-palmer-case-145038">COVID border closures</a>. </p>
<p>But this particular dispute dates back to 2012 and concerns an iron ore project in the Pilbara. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-court-finds-border-closures-safest-way-to-protect-public-health-in-clive-palmer-case-145038">Federal Court finds border closures safest way to protect public health in Clive Palmer case</a>
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<p>Palmer has argued his development proposals for the Balmoral South iron ore project were unlawfully refused by the previous state government, under former premier Colin Barnett. He is reportedly seeking about <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-18/clive-palmer-seeking-tens-of-billions-documents-reveal/12570338">$30 billion</a> in damages.</p>
<h2>The Mineralogy Act</h2>
<p>In mid-August, the state government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-14/clive-palmer-wa-row-not-over-despite-laws-to-block-damages-claim/12556616">passed the Mineralogy Act</a> to terminate the damages claims against it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="WA Premier Mark McGowan" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The McGowan government says the legislation is needed to protect the ‘interests’ of WA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Before this, Palmer and his companies, including Mineralogy, had been pursuing these claims through arbitration - a dispute resolution process that happens outside the courts. This arbitration was about whether the WA government properly dealt with proposals Palmer’s companies made under a <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/wa/consol_act/iopplaa2002502/sch1.html">2002 agreement</a>. </p>
<p>Last week, after the act passed, Palmer declared he would sue McGowan and Attorney-General John Quigley for “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-26/clive-palmer-suing-mark-mcgowan-john-quigley-in-new-legal-action/12596538">contempt of the High Court of Australia</a>”.</p>
<p>This is likely to be one of many salvos in a protracted legal battle.</p>
<h2>Does Palmer have a claim for contempt of court?</h2>
<p>Contempt of court means acts that interfere with or undermine the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1995/3.html?context=1;query=witham%20v%20holloway;mask_path=">authority, performance or dignity</a> of the courts.</p>
<p>The Mineralogy Act seeks to terminate the arbitration for the reported $30 billion claims. </p>
<p>It also invalidates existing arbitral awards, which are decisions determining parties’ rights and liabilities. Given that arbitrations are not court proceedings, these aspects of the act do not establish contempt of court.</p>
<p>However, where a party does not comply with an arbitration award, the award can be registered with the courts and then enforced as if it were a court judgment. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Dumper truck in the Pilbara." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This dispute is over an iron ore project in the Pilbara.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kim Christian/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Before the act was passed, Palmer had registered <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/13/clive-palmer-says-queensland-court-action-makes-wa-move-to-avoid-damages-unconstitutional">two arbitration awards</a> in the Queensland Supreme Court. The act seeks to remove the basis for these claims. There is <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/vic/VicSC/1995/510.html?context=1;query=Dagi;mask_path=">precedent</a> that this may constitute contempt of the Queensland court (although contrary to Palmer’s assertions, not the High Court). </p>
<p>However, even if Palmer establishes contempt of the Queensland court, that would not invalidate the Mineralogy Act. Any penalty imposed by the court would also be modest in comparison to the $30 billion damages claim.</p>
<h2>Can the WA parliament pass a law that takes away rights without compensation?</h2>
<p>Apart from the contempt issue, Palmer may argue the WA parliament cannot pass a law that takes away individual rights without compensation. </p>
<p>In this regard, state laws that take away rights are unusual, <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2001/7.html?context=1;query=durham%20holdings;mask_path=">but not new</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wa-government-legislated-itself-a-win-in-its-dispute-with-clive-palmer-and-put-itself-above-the-law-144360">The WA government legislated itself a win in its dispute with Clive Palmer — and put itself above the law</a>
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<p>The <a href="https://cdn.hcourt.gov.au/assets/publications/judgment-summaries/2015/hca-13-2015-04-15.pdf">High Court</a> and <a href="https://www.queenslandjudgments.com.au/case/id/501587">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/the-ghost-of-lang-hancock/">WA supreme courts</a> have previously treated state laws that remove rights of particular persons without just compensation as valid. </p>
<p>While the WA parliament has not previously amended a state agreement with a mining company without consent, this was found to be valid in <a href="https://www.queenslandjudgments.com.au/case/id/501587">Queensland</a>. This approach is consistent with the principle that the present parliament can generally amend existing laws.</p>
<p>As a political, rather than legal matter, politicians have found that laws targeting mining rights <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/14/wa-nationals-leader-brendon-grylls-loses-seat-to-labor-after-attack-from-mining-lobby">can be hazardous</a>. </p>
<p>Whether public opinion will ultimately support the Mineralogy Act remains to be seen. But the <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/mark-mcgowan-for-pm-wa-punters-might-want-it-but-does-labor-20200805-p55ix6.html">current popularity</a> of the WA government over its handling of COVID-19 and the <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/wa-premier-s-populism-makes-palmer-a-legal-pariah-but-why-20200812-p55l51.html">potential popularity</a> of “saving” the state’s finances will undoubtedly influence perspectives. </p>
<h2>Are parts of the Mineralogy Act unconstitutional?</h2>
<p>Palmer may also argue parts of the Mineralogy Act are unconstitutional.</p>
<p>Parliaments can pass laws about matters involved in ongoing legal disputes. They can even target particular cases or parties. But based on Chapter III of the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/%7E/link.aspx?_id=1A4B10F0E0C645D68D16DC6953E7CE52&_z=z">Constitution</a>, they can’t compromise the court’s integrity by telling a court how to decide. This constitutional line is often tricky to draw. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Clive Palmer at a press conference on the Gold Coast." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clive Palmer says he will sue the WA government over the Mineralogy Act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Paled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The act does not entirely remove the court’s power to examine the legality of government actions. But it does try to stop courts from giving remedies that are unfavourable to WA.</p>
<p>So, it doesn’t quite tell courts how to decide, but it does restrict what they can do, which is getting into uncertain constitutional territory. </p>
<p>The WA government <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Hansard/hansard.nsf/0/FDACB99A1DDAB100482585D100069AC5/$FILE/A40%20S1%2020200811%20p4594b-4599a.pdf">has described</a> the Mineralogy Act as “unprecedented,” containing a number of measures that are “not usual”. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>but Mineralogy and Mr Palmer are not normal and these measures are needed to best protect the interests of the state and the community.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, even necessary laws must be constitutional.</p>
<h2>Does Palmer really stand to gain $30 billion in damages anyway?</h2>
<p>Palmer has said the widely reported $30 billion price tag is “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-14/clive-palmer-wa-row-not-over-despite-laws-to-block-damages-claim/12556616">bullshit</a>”. But Quigley <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-18/clive-palmer-seeking-tens-of-billions-documents-reveal/12570338">tabled details </a>in parliament last month showing the total damages sought by Palmer and his companies in relation to the iron ore project was at least $27.75 billion.</p>
<p>Palmer’s <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Hansard/hansard.nsf/0/FDACB99A1DDAB100482585D100069AC5/$FILE/A40%20S1%2020200811%20p4594b-4599a.pdf">damages claims</a> focus on the loss of opportunities to develop and sell the project to Chinese state-owned enterprises. </p>
<p>But core principles for assessing damages for breach of contract - which in this case is a <a href="https://www.legislation.wa.gov.au/legislation/prod/filestore.nsf/FileURL/mrdoc_43096.htm/$FILE/Iron%20Ore%20Processing%20(Mineralogy%20Pty%20Ltd)%20Agreement%20Act%202002%20-%20%5B00-c0-01%5D.html?OpenElement">2002 agreement</a> between Mineralogy and the state government - may stand in the way.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/these-young-queenslanders-are-taking-on-clive-palmers-coal-company-and-making-history-for-human-rights-138732">These young Queenslanders are taking on Clive Palmer's coal company and making history for human rights</a>
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<p>The state’s improper delay in approving the project must have caused the loss - but it is <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Hansard/hansard.nsf/0/FDACB99A1DDAB100482585D100069AC5/$FILE/A40%20S1%2020200811%20p4594b-4599a.pdf">not clear</a> this is the case. There may have been other reasons for the losses, including the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b33b2fc8-cd8d-11e4-9144-00144feab7de">post-GFC mining slump</a>.</p>
<p>Also, the value of what Palmer has lost needs to reflect the likelihood the project would have occurred without the delay, and so is likely to be much lower than $30 billion. </p>
<p>Palmer must also have taken reasonable steps to minimise his loss. This might mean following the standard industry practice of <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Hansard/hansard.nsf/0/FDACB99A1DDAB100482585D100069AC5/$FILE/A40%20S1%2020200811%20p4594b-4599a.pdf">amending the development</a> proposals to meet state government conditions, noting the Mineralogy Act still leaves this possibility open.</p>
<h2>What happens now?</h2>
<p>Palmer has a potential claim that the passage of the Mineralogy Act constitutes contempt of the Queensland Supreme Court. It is also possible parts of the act, such as those that restrict the remedies available to courts, are unconstitutional. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mineral-wealth-clive-palmer-and-the-corruption-of-australian-politics-117248">Mineral wealth, Clive Palmer, and the corruption of Australian politics</a>
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<p>However, even if Palmer succeeds in these claims, it is not clear how much he will actually gain financially, or if his claim is really worth $30 billion.</p>
<p>The Mineralogy Act is so unusual, it would be foolish to predict outcomes to these complex legal questions. Over the coming months, we will start seeing answers to these questions as Palmer brings lawsuits and proceedings work their way through the courts. </p>
<p>The answers will provide profound insights into the decision-making powers of states.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145098/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Wesson has previously received funding from the International Mining for Development Centre (IM4DC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Murray has previously received funding from Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and the Minerals Council of Australia for research relating to Indigenous benefits management structures.
Ian is also on a working group with the Minerals Council of Australia and the National Native Title Council focussed on Indigenous economic development. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Southalan has previously worked with a land council, assisting clients in proceedings against Mineralogy companies. Nothing from that work has informed, nor is relied on, in this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Natalie Brown has received funding from National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, Centre for Mining Energy and Natural Resources Law (UWA) for PhD research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Murray has received funding from the Australian Institute of Criminology and the WA Public Purposes Trust.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie Falck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The legislation designed to stop Palmer claiming huge damages against WA raises a host of questions.Murray Wesson, Senior Lecturer in Law, The University of Western AustraliaIan Murray, Associate Professor, The University of Western AustraliaJohn Southalan, Global Faculty (Centre of Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law & Policy), University of DundeeJulie Falck, Lecturer, The University of Western AustraliaNatalie Brown, Lecturer in Administrative and Property Law; PhD in WA iron ore State agreements, The University of Western AustraliaSarah Murray, Professor specialising in public law and less-adversarial justice, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1449202020-08-23T12:22:06Z2020-08-23T12:22:06ZView from The Hill: COVID response helped NT Labor, encouraging Palaszczuk and McGowan to stick to their scripts<p>Both those pressing for states to re-open borders, and defenders of their resistance to doing so, will look for arguments to support their cases in Saturday’s Northern Territory election results.</p>
<p>Chief Minister Michael Gunner has taken a tough line on the NT border. With the NT COVID-free, people can’t go to the territory from COVID “hotspots” without quarantining at their own expense.</p>
<p>Labor’s loss of seats – while retaining government whether in majority or minority – is seen by the “open borders” urgers as carrying lessons about putting all (or most) eggs in a keep-safe basket.</p>
<p>It’s accepted that if he hadn’t had COVID to run on, Gunner would have been much worse off, given the NT’s pre-COVID economic problems.</p>
<p>But if he had taken a softer approach to the border, and there’d been a major COVID outbreak, he would have worn serious blame. With indigenous people – who, like the elderly, form a high risk group for COVID – forming about 30% of the NT community, a big outbreak could have been catastrophic.</p>
<p>And while the NT economy remains in poor shape, especially the tourist sector, the state is open internally (they were all hugging at those party functions on Saturday night).</p>
<p>Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan are unlikely to see the NT result as sending a signal their border policies will be a political handicap.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean Palaszczuk and McGowan can afford to rely on their performances on COVID alone when they go to the polls in October and early next year respectively. Their voters will expect more. But as things stand, restrictive border policies are popular and the NT hasn’t said otherwise.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison’s relative powerlessness on the border issue was illustrated at Friday’s national cabinet.</p>
<p>Progress is being made on specific problems, such as the needs of agriculture in border areas, and health matters.</p>
<p>But on the basic question of opening or closing, the premiers remained firm. Only NSW is Morrison’s ally in this battle. </p>
<p>While commentators see the war over borders as a sign of the federation’s dysfunction, voters in particular states read it differently.</p>
<p>Morrison announced at his Friday news conference national cabinet had asked the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC), including state and federal health advisers, to define a “hotspot” and consider movement restrictions relating to these spots. </p>
<p>He hopes such a definition would put pressure on premiers and chief ministers to limit border closures.</p>
<p>It is apparently trodden and tricky territory. Acting Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly told the news conference: “It is a piece of work we have had an attempt at before. And we’ll continue to try to get consensus there in AHPPC about a definition of a hotspot.”</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether this committee can agree. And if it does, whether that would make any difference to what leaders do.</p>
<p>But when parliament resumes on Monday, it won’t be borders that will be the front of mind issue – it will be aged care.</p>
<p>With a majority of COVID deaths being people who lived in aged care facilities, and an absolute shocker of a performance from Aged Care Minister Richard Colbeck on Friday, the opposition has a lot of ammunition.</p>
<p>Colbeck, appearing before the Senate COVID committee, was asked two simple questions. How many deaths had there been of residents of facilities, and how many COVID cases were there among residents at present. He could neither remember, nor find the numbers immediately. This was appalling preparation.</p>
<p>Forced to defend Colbeck, Morrison said, “on occasion, I can’t call every figure to mind”. </p>
<p>But the PM knew such a lapse has an impact beyond its strictly objective importance.</p>
<p>An example from long ago makes the point. Late in the Hawke government, then treasurer John Kerin at a news conference was unable to explain an economic term. It was hardly a hanging offence. But it damaged Kerin, and the government.</p>
<p>With the Colbeck clip shown over and over, it quickly becomes a symbol of both the minister’s failure, and the failure of the government to do enough to protect aged care residents.</p>
<p>The odds are short that Morrison will move Colbeck from aged care when he reshuffles his ministry following the departure of Mathias Cormann late this year.</p>
<p>But Colbeck is only one player in the aged care crisis, and not the most important. He’s the junior minister in the health portfolio. The Health Minister Greg Hunt, the prime minister, the government regulator of the industry (the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission), and advisers to government share responsibility. And it is important we don’t forget the private providers: did some of them not heed warnings?</p>
<p>Ultimate political responsibility belongs to the federal government. </p>
<p>Faced with questions about the Victorian aged care disaster, Morrison has tried to unload some of the blame onto the state government by saying the states have responsibility for public health.</p>
<p>That’s true and the Victorian government must be accountable, both for unleashing community transmission with the quarantine breach and for inadequacies in its health reaction. But the fact the federal government is responsible for the sector means Morrison, Colbeck and Hunt need to both admit the Commonwealth’s mistakes and also lay out a convincing roadmap for the future.</p>
<p>Some actions are being undertaken, and there is the complication that the report of the royal commission into aged care is still months away. But the issue is urgent.</p>
<p>The Morrison government is always reluctant to be seen to be pushed, and Friday’s national cabinet provided an interesting insight into this.</p>
<p>When the royal commission less than a fortnight ago suggested, based on evidence from Monash University geriatrician Joseph Ibrahim, that the government should set up an advisory unit including people with expertise in aged care, infection control and emergency responses, Morrison was publicity dismissive.</p>
<p>But the statement from Friday’s national cabinet said: “A time-limited AHPPC Aged Care Advisory Group will be established to support the national public health emergency response to COVID-19 in aged care. The Advisory Group will bring together expertise about the aged care sector, infection control, emergency preparedness and public health response.”</p>
<p>Take a bow, Professor Ibrahim and the royal commission.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144920/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Both those pressing for states to re-open borders, and defenders of their resistance to doing so, will look for arguments to support their cases in Saturday’s Northern Territory election results. Chief…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1443602020-08-14T01:59:51Z2020-08-14T01:59:51ZThe WA government legislated itself a win in its dispute with Clive Palmer — and put itself above the law<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352839/original/file-20200814-18-1qw932p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The events of the past few days in Western Australia have been extraordinary as the protracted conflict between the government and mining billionaire Clive Palmer reached a fever pitch.</p>
<p>Premier Mark McGowan declared the state is “<a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa/was-hard-border-fight-premier-mark-mcgowan-says-state-is-at-war-with-clive-palmer-ng-b881632720z">in a war</a>” with Palmer, and, in turn, Palmer <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/clive-palmer/clive-palmer-compares-wa-to-nazi-germany-and-says-mark-mcgowan-should-be-jailed-as-30-billion-damages-claim-turns-ugly-ng-b881637515z">has called for the premier to be jailed</a>. </p>
<p>While this war of words has become a feature of their ongoing dispute over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-border-challenge-why-states-not-courts-need-to-make-the-hard-calls-during-health-emergencies-143541">WA border closures</a>, these comments are related to an entirely different disagreement — a legal battle Palmer is waging against the state, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/clive-palmer-sues-wa-government-for-30-billion-over-iron-ore/12547664">reported</a> to be worth A$30 billion. But Palmer <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-12/clive-palmer-denies-seeking-30-billion-damages-wa-government/12494968">told</a> reporters this week:</p>
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<p>There isn’t any $30 billion claim against the Western Australian government […] It’s [their] assessment of what the damages are for what they’ve done.</p>
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<p>Nevertheless, the Western Australian government late last night <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-14/clive-palmer-wa-row-not-over-despite-laws-to-block-damages-claim/12556616">took the unprecedented step</a> of passing a bill preventing Palmer from collecting damages from the state.</p>
<p>In essence, the government is seeking to legislate its way out of a legal dispute. There is no doubt that having to pay a potential $30 billion damages claim would be devastating for WA. But trying to circumvent the courts by instead legislating a preferred outcome is also not without its consequences.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-border-challenge-why-states-not-courts-need-to-make-the-hard-calls-during-health-emergencies-143541">WA border challenge: why states, not courts, need to make the hard calls during health emergencies</a>
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<h2>What is the current dispute about?</h2>
<p>Late Tuesday, Attorney-General John Quigley introduced the <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Parliament/Bills.nsf/2F1CFD31ACD372EE482585C100337061/$File/Bill%2B205-1.pdf">bill</a> and informed parliament the state was facing the massive damages claim related to the dispute with Palmer. </p>
<p>The dispute stretches back to 2012 and has a complicated history, including both arbitral awards and a Supreme Court decision in Palmer’s favour. It was recently listed for a 15-day arbitration hearing due to commence in November.</p>
<p>While WA has vigorously defended its legal position, Quigley acknowledged “<a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Hansard/hansard.nsf/0/A88CF2DEA41205C9482585C10060BD99/$File/A40%20S1%2020200811%20All.pdf">a successful defence of the claim is not guaranteed</a>”. </p>
<p>McGowan also <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/schools-hospitals-police-stations-forced-to-close-if-clive-palmer-claim-proceeds-and-bankrupts-wa-ng-b881636517z">warned</a> losing the case would bankrupt the state and </p>
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<p>would mean mass closures of hospitals, of schools, of police stations, mass sackings of public servants and child protection workers. </p>
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<p>The bill was designed to prevent this outcome. And just two days later, it passed into law with the support of both government and opposition members.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352841/original/file-20200814-24-1j2v2hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352841/original/file-20200814-24-1j2v2hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352841/original/file-20200814-24-1j2v2hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352841/original/file-20200814-24-1j2v2hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352841/original/file-20200814-24-1j2v2hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352841/original/file-20200814-24-1j2v2hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352841/original/file-20200814-24-1j2v2hd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">McGowan (right) and Quigley have issued dire warnings about the impact Palmer’s lawsuit could have on the state.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">REBECCA GREDLEY/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>What does the new law do?</h2>
<p>Quigley has acknowledged this new law is unprecedented. It is directly and expressly targeting Palmer, his mining company Mineralogy Pty Ltd, and the ongoing dispute over the Balmoral South iron ore project. </p>
<p>It terminates the ongoing arbitration, invalidates existing arbtiration agreements, voids existing arbitral awards, prevents further legal proceedings or appeals, protects the state from any liability of any sort in relation to the dispute (including any criminal liability), and obliges Palmer and his companies to indemnify the state. </p>
<p>The rules of natural justice and freedom of information laws are expressly stated not to apply. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mineral-wealth-clive-palmer-and-the-corruption-of-australian-politics-117248">Mineral wealth, Clive Palmer, and the corruption of Australian politics</a>
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<p>There are a number of concerns with the government’s actions. First, this approach undermines both the rule of law and separation of powers, which are foundational pillars of our Westminster system of government. </p>
<p>It also creates sovereign risk. The premier has sought to downplay this by reassuring the resources sector this is a one-time-only exceptional case. </p>
<p>But how could it realistically not change the risk calculation made by potential investors? If the government shows it is prepared to intervene in this way once, how could anybody be 100% sure that they wouldn’t be prepared to do it again?</p>
<p>Another concern is the singling out of Palmer by the law. While he is clearly a wildly unpopular figure in WA and an enthusiastic litigant, drafting specific laws to target named individuals is never a good idea and undermines the principle of equality before the law. </p>
<p>Laws should not be drafted to target specific individuals, no matter who they are.</p>
<h2>A rushed debate</h2>
<p>The fact that such extraordinary legislation has been rushed into the parliament with no prior consultation or warning, and passed with only two days of debate is also concerning. </p>
<p>The government rejected a proposal to have the legislation considered in more detail by a parliamentary committee, even if done within an expedited timeframe. Quigley <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-13/clive-palmer-wa-damages-claim-set-to-be-blocked-by-legislation/12554052">claimed</a> </p>
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<p>there is too much at risk for all Western Australians for namby-pamby inquiries.</p>
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<p>While the premier has claimed the urgency was necessary given the unique circumstances, it means an extraordinary law that negates foundational Westminster principles has been passed with minimal scrutiny or debate.</p>
<p>The significance of this is perhaps best captured by <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Hansard/hansard.nsf/0/adb4ea60b87b65f148257b91002e225c/$FILE/A39+S1+20130619+p1826b-1849a.pdf">comments</a> made by McGowan himself in 2013. The view from opposition gave him a somewhat different perspective:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It has been part of the standing orders and the time-honoured process of parliament in the Westminster system for a long period that we do not rush legislation through without time to consider it because doing so does not allow proper debate in its consideration and mistakes are made in the legislation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The unprecedented nature of this particular law must surely amplify these concerns.</p>
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<h2>What happens next?</h2>
<p>Palmer has already indicated he will challenge the validity of the new law in the High Court. He has also taken steps in the past two days to try to prevent the law from taking effect by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-13/clive-palmer-claiming-legal-victory-in-fight-with-wa-government/12555740">registering</a> the existing arbitral awards in the Queensland Supreme Court and applying for an injunction in the Federal Court. </p>
<p>While the WA government has tried to remove the dispute from the courts, it now looks as though the matter will end up in court one way or another — and the legal fight will likely be protracted.</p>
<p>By trying to legislate itself a win in this legal dispute, the government has tried to place itself above the law. This may or may not end up saving WA from a catastrophic damages claim. </p>
<p>But there is still a significant cost in the collateral damage that has been done to the rule of law. </p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/these-young-queenslanders-are-taking-on-clive-palmers-coal-company-and-making-history-for-human-rights-138732">These young Queenslanders are taking on Clive Palmer's coal company and making history for human rights</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lorraine Finlay is affiliated with the Liberal Party of Australia, being a former President of the Liberal Women's Council (WA).</span></em></p>By trying to circumvent the courts, the government is undermining both the rule of law and separation of powers. There is also collateral damage to the rule of law.Lorraine Finlay, Lecturer in Law, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1438082020-08-02T11:34:56Z2020-08-02T11:34:56ZView from The Hill: COVID has brought us a state in disaster and a prime minister in a mask<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350715/original/file-20200802-18-121d2zf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C1%2C894%2C892&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>As Melbourne moved to an extraordinary 8pm to 5am daily curfew and Stage 4 restrictions, and Victoria declared a “state of disaster”, Scott Morrison took to social media with a message for the embattled residents.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-state-of-disaster-and-what-powers-does-it-confer-143807">Explainer: what is a 'state of disaster' and what powers does it confer?</a>
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<p>“Australians all around the country are backing you in, because we all know for Australia to succeed, we need for Victoria to get through this,” he said.</p>
<p>The Victorian lockdown has not just become drastically harsher - it is now due to run through until September 13. </p>
<p>Before Sunday’s announcement, Victoria was half way through its softer lockdown. </p>
<p>But that was not going to do its job, according to Premier Daniel Andrews, who had spent day after day imploring people to stay within the rules.</p>
<p>If tougher restrictions weren’t imposed, Andrews reckoned it would take until the end of the year before Victoria would be back seeing daylight. </p>
<p>“That’s a six-month strategy that is simply not going to work,” Andrews said. “Therefore we have to do more and do more right now.”</p>
<p>Andrews had no choice. The latest Victorian tally was 671 new cases and seven deaths. There are some 760 “mystery” active cases where the sources could not be traced. </p>
<p>Goodness knows, however, what sort of shape Victoria will be in by mid September, or Australia as a whole, for that matter. </p>
<p>The Victorian economy will be prone. On Monday we will get the details of which areas of business will be cut back or shut down by the government. Many others will be knocked off their feet, temporarily or in some cases permanently, by the stronger general restrictions on activity. </p>
<p>Treasury will be once again going back to its budget figures that last week were already out of date, just a week after they were unveiled.</p>
<p>Andrews is looking for some special Commonwealth help for Victoria. Nothing specific seems on or off the table. But the strong message from the federal government is that any such assistance should be on a 50-50 basis with Victoria. </p>
<p>The tougher lockdown, particularly targeting younger people who move around a lot and may be spreading the virus without showing symptoms, will test the resilience and compliance of a stressed community. </p>
<p>It’s already testing the political restraint of some Coalition politicians. Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, while saying he wasn’t out to whack Andrews with a baseball bat, lamented that tighter restrictions hadn’t been imposed on Melbourne earlier. </p>
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<p>Morrison was taking a low public profile at the weekend, apart from social media messaging including an Instagram picture of him wearing a mask. He explained he’d “had to pop out to pick up a few things here in Sydney, so followed the NSW Premier’s advice announced earlier today (and put a mask on in the car before heading into the shops).”</p>
<p>Meanwhile on Saturday he had sent a letter to West Australian premier Mark McGowan, capitulating over the Commonwealth’s participation in the court challenge to WA’s closed border.</p>
<p>Morrison said he was pulling the government out of the High Court case, which has been brought by Clive Palmer.</p>
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<p>After concerted attacks on the WA government last week by him and senior ministers from WA, Christian Porter and Mathias Cormann, the Prime Minister presumably recognised (or was told) that regardless of whether he was on the right side of the constitution he was certainly on the wrong side of public opinion. </p>
<p>McGowan has very high ratings - with a state election coming early next year - and the hard border is popular locally.</p>
<p>Morrison reiterated that the Commonwealth intervention in the case had been consistent with convention and its responsibilities in relation to the constitution. He said the government’s actions “have not been to support any private interest of the plaintiffs”.</p>
<p>“While taking our constitutional responsibilities seriously in seeking to respect established conventions, I also accept that recent events in the eastern states, especially Victoria, are creating real concerns to residents in other states less impacted,” he wrote.</p>
<p>“I do not wish to see these concerns further exacerbated in Western Australia.</p>
<p>"Having taken into account the changed state of the pandemic that has worsened since these matters were first brought to the High Court, the high level of concern regarding public health in the Western Australian community, and our desire to work with you cooperatively on a constitutionally sustainable way forward, I consider, on balance, that we must set aside the normal convention in these circumstances and not continue the Commonwealth’s participation in this case.”</p>
<p>Morrison proposed principles “to mitigate the Commonwealth’s concerns with how border issues within our Federation are managed”. </p>
<p>He said the federal government was not asking WA to change its present border setting – as things stood, that would give rise to “significant and unnecessary public concern”.</p>
<p>His principles proposed states should not act arbitrarily in restricting inter-state movement of Australian residents; any restriction should be in consultation with the Commonwealth on the basis of transparent advice about the need for it; affected states should be consulted, and there should be criteria and processes for regular assessment.</p>
<p>“I also want to stress the advice I receive from the Chief Medical Officer, that has also been regularly conveyed to National Cabinet, that border arrangements are no substitute for strong public health response capability and maintenance of social distancing principles,” Morrison wrote.</p>
<p>“If an outbreak were to occur in Western Australia, as has occurred in other states, it will be strength of your State’s testing, tracing and outbreak containment capabilities that will determine your success or otherwise.” </p>
<p>The tone of the letter indicated this had been a retreat made through gritted teeth behind a thin mask of congeniality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victoria has been declared a ‘state of disaster’.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1436332020-07-29T11:33:48Z2020-07-29T11:33:48ZView from The Hill: With an abundance of caution, Palaszczuk puts out the unwelcome mat to Sydneysiders<p>As the Morrison government on Wednesday stepped up its attack on Western Australia over its refusal to open its borders, it faced a couple of awkward political questions.</p>
<p>The Prime Minister was quizzed at a news conference in Canberra on why his government was supporting Clive Palmer in his High Court challenge to the closure.</p>
<p>And on Perth radio, Attorney-General Christian Porter was asked whether the federal government would be thanked or blamed if Palmer won the case.</p>
<p>The Palmer challenge is in the federal court, which is dealing with matters of fact before the High Court hears it.</p>
<p>Well before the High Court decision, the federal government is calling the result, predicting the McGowan government is headed for a legal bruising.</p>
<p>“It is highly likely that the constitutional position that is being reviewed in this case will not fall in the Western Australian government’s favour,” Morrison said. Porter put the same view.</p>
<p>Whatever the ultimate court outcome, there is little doubt McGowan’s tough line has gone down a treat with his constituency. It has not just helped keep the state COVID-safe but fits nicely with those latent WA secessionist instincts.</p>
<p>The federal government is dealing with the bad look of being aligned with the discredited Palmer by simply denying the reality.</p>
<p>“Let me be clear, we are not supporting Clive Palmer,” Morrison declared, a proposition that was anything but clear. </p>
<p>“An action has been brought in relation to the WA border. It goes to quite serious constitutional issues which the Commonwealth could not be silent about,” Morrison said.</p>
<p>Porter’s take is that the Commonwealth isn’t arguing for either side in the case but is “a middle man…there to provide expert evidence”.</p>
<p>That evidence, however, backs up Palmer.</p>
<p>As a general rule Morrison, with economic considerations in mind, has never favoured closed state borders, though he had to give pragmatic support to the present NSW-Victorian closure. The states went their own ways regardless of Canberra’s view.</p>
<p>With no persuasive argument easily mounted at the moment to open any border to Victorians, the federal government wants WA to compromise by opening to low risk states.</p>
<p>Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, in an opinion piece this week, urged a “balance” between protecting the health of West Australians and “protecting current jobs and not standing in the way of the strongest possible jobs recovery”.</p>
<p>Porter warned WA’s all-or-nothing approach risked “an adverse finding in the High Court which requires you to do everything at once.” Both Porter and Cormann are West Australians.</p>
<p>As relations between the Morrison and McGowan governments became even more fractious over the border issue, Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced on Wednesday she will close her border to Sydneysiders from 1am Saturday.</p>
<p>This followed two 19-year-old women who flew from Melbourne to Brisbane via Sydney and did not isolate (there is an investigation as to whether they gave false information). A third woman, a close contact, has also tested positive.</p>
<p>NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian wasn’t warned and, it can be assumed, wasn’t pleased. Earlier, she had been vociferous about the need for Queensland to open its border.</p>
<p>Asked about the Queensland action, Morrison said “I think it’s important to sort of put borders aside when it comes to those things”, preferring to focus on limiting movement of people from outbreak zones.</p>
<p>The PM wants targeted responses to outbreaks, not nuclear options.</p>
<p>His approach rests on an optimistic assumption – that limited outbreaks are capable of containment without a massive reaction, such as border closures or major lockdowns. For this to be correct, everything needs to go right.</p>
<p>The Morrison prescription also depends on other political leaders being willing to take some risks - and Palaszczuk and Mark McGowan are not. </p>
<p>Palaszczuk’s decision will bring economic costs for Queensland. Businesses expecting Sydney visitors will have cancellations, and future uncertainty will be created.</p>
<p>There will be some blowback for the premier, as she approaches the state election in October. But she calculates, probably correctly, the negatives will be a lot less politically dangerous than if she were seen to fail to do everything possible to protect Queenslanders’ health.</p>
<p>And the sudden high alert in Queensland is likely to just reinforce McGowan’s resistance to the federal government’s pressure to compromise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143633/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The blowback from closing borders will be considerable the Queensland premier, but will be a lot less politically dangerous than if she were seen to fail to do everything possible to protect Queenslanders’ health.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1420842020-07-06T11:02:12Z2020-07-06T11:02:12ZView from The Hill: Morrison government accepts Victorian closure but won’t budge on High Court border challenges<p>Scott Morrison has repeatedly and vociferously championed keeping state borders open.</p>
<p>But on Monday, Morrison was forced to change course, agreeing, in a hook up with premiers Daniel Andrews and Gladys Berejiklian that the Victorian-NSW border should be closed.</p>
<p>In a somewhat Jesuitical distinction, Morrison said they had agreed “now is the time for Victoria to isolate itself from the rest of the country. What’s different here [is] this isn’t other states closing their borders to Victoria”.</p>
<p>Deputy Chief Medical Officer Michael Kidd said later “the Commonwealth accepts the need for this action in response to containing spread of the virus”.</p>
<p>But, Kidd said, the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee – the federal-state health advisory body so often invoked by Morrison - “was not involved in that decision”.</p>
<p>“The AHPPC does not provide advice on border closures,” Kidd added.</p>
<p>Borders have always been a strictly state matter.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-the-victoria-nsw-border-closure-will-work-and-how-residents-might-be-affected-142045">Here's how the Victoria-NSW border closure will work – and how residents might be affected</a>
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<p>Even during the high stage of the pandemic, NSW and Victoria kept their border open, unlike Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania.</p>
<p>Monday’s decision to close the border from Tuesday night underlines that we are staring at a dangerous new phase in the evolution of the COVID crisis.</p>
<p>The latest Victorian tally of 127 new cases was a record for the state. Kidd said: “The situation in Melbourne has come as a jolt, not just for the people of Melbourne but people right across Australia who may have thought that this was all behind us. It is not.</p>
<p>"The outbreak in Victoria is a national issue. We are all at risk from a resurgence of COVID-19.” </p>
<p>If the Victorian situation can’t be brought under control quickly – and conditions in Melbourne are complicated, even chaotic - the country could face a new bleak outlook on the health front, with a substantial risk of the virus ticking up elsewhere, regardless of other states keeping out Victorians, and an even deeper than anticipated recession.</p>
<p>Borders have been a source of division among governments from early on.</p>
<p>In particular Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk - now reopening her state’s borders from this Friday though excluding Victorians - found herself under attack from the federal government and also from NSW.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-is-undeniably-in-a-second-wave-of-covid-19-its-time-to-plan-for-another-statewide-lockdown-142047">Victoria is undeniably in a second wave of COVID-19. It's time to plan for another statewide lockdown</a>
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<p>As well, both Queensland and WA face challenges from Clive Palmer in the High Court over the constitutionality of their border closures. There’s also another case being brought by Queensland tourism operators.</p>
<p>The High Court has sent the three cases to the federal court to look at certain aspects. The WA matter will be before that court on July 13 and 14.</p>
<p>The constitution provides for free trade and intercourse between the states. The key issue is “proportionality” – whether keeping a border closed is reasonable on health grounds at a particular point of time.</p>
<p>The Morrison government, consistent with the Prime Minister’s argument from the get go, is intervening in the cases to argue the borders should have been opened.</p>
<p>WA premier Mark McGowan on Monday was quick to use the Victorian development to call on Morrison to pull out, saying that in light of the Victoria-NSW closure “I’ve asked the Prime Minister to formally withdraw [federal government] support from Clive Palmer’s High Court challenge. </p>
<p>"It does not make sense for the federal government to be supporting a border closure between NSW and Victoria but on the other hand challenging Western Australia’s border in the High Court.</p>
<p>"Quite frankly, the legal challenge, and especially the Commonwealth involvement in it, has now become completely ridiculous.”</p>
<p>But the federal government is refusing to take a step back.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nine-melbourne-tower-blocks-put-into-hard-lockdown-what-does-it-mean-and-will-it-work-142033">Nine Melbourne tower blocks put into 'hard lockdown' – what does it mean, and will it work?</a>
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<p>Attorney-General Christian Porter noted the challenges were not being brought by the Commonwealth, and said it was the right of any citizen to take legal action if they believed “their basic rights of freedom of interstate movement are being disproportionately taken from them”. </p>
<p>“The Commonwealth has intervened to put evidence and views on the situation … the Court would normally expect the Commonwealth to be involved, given the importance of the issues raised.” </p>
<p>Porter said the Commonwealth’s intervention was to provide its view on whether, constitutionally, border closures were permitted in certain circumstances and not others.</p>
<p>“Clearly the courts will be required to consider whether, in determining these specific cases, border restrictions were proportionate to the health crisis at specific points in time as Australia dealt with the immediate and longer-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>"The Court would expect to hear from the Commonwealth on those types of significant constitutional questions.”</p>
<p>Whatever the legal logic, to be endorsing the Victorian closure but arguing against other states’ abundant caution may be a complicated proposition to defend in the court of public opinion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142084/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison has repeatedly and vociferously championed keeping state borders open…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.