tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/pennsylvania-18738/articlesPennsylvania – The Conversation2024-03-14T12:46:04Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250532024-03-14T12:46:04Z2024-03-14T12:46:04ZHow for-profit nursing home regulators can use the powers they already have to fix growing problems with poor-quality care<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579738/original/file-20240304-22-wj7pxu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5760%2C3837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nursing homes care for more than a million people in the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NursingHomeHigh/7c838b5ffe0a4558bde70f78d42f123e/photo">AP Photo/Richard Drew</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Governments at both state and federal levels have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ppar/prad001">yet to fully wield their authority</a> to fight poor-quality care at for-profit nursing homes nationwide, leaving the pressing need for elder care accountability unmet.</p>
<p>Medicare has the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ppar/prad001">power to improve financial accountability</a> at nursing facilities by capping profits while requiring that a percentage of revenues be spent on direct care expenditures. Already, four states – New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ppar/prad001">have shown this can be done</a>, passing laws requiring minimum percentages of expenditures on direct care while limiting profits.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://profiles.ucsf.edu/charlene.harrington">behavioral scientist</a> at the University of California, San Francisco who studies the economics of nursing homes and the implications for care. I am also the co-author of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-profit-nursing-homes-are-cutting-corners-on-safety-and-draining-resources-with-financial-shenanigans-especially-at-midsize-chains-that-dodge-public-scrutiny-225045">investigative piece in The Conversation</a> about for-profit nursing homes.</p>
<p>States also have the power to suspend and disqualify nursing home owners from the Medicaid program when they provide poor-quality care, commit fraud or harm residents. </p>
<p>For example, after the New Jersey comptroller <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/princeton-care-center-abrupt-closure-law-violation/">concluded that the abrupt closure</a> of the Princeton Care Center nursing home in September 2023 jeopardized the health and safety of residents, the state took action. It <a href="https://nj.gov/comptroller/news/2024/20240116.shtml#:%7E:text=The%20Office%20of%20the%20State,other%20Medicaid%2Dfunded%20nursing%20homes.">moved in January 2024 to impose an eight-year ban</a> on the owners’ ability to receive Medicaid reimbursement at any nursing home and to require them to divest themselves from <a href="https://nj.gov/comptroller/news/2024/20240116.shtml#:%7E:text=The%20Office%20of%20the%20State,other%20Medicaid%2Dfunded%20nursing%20homes.">two other facilities they already ran</a>.</p>
<p>The federal government can also take aggressive actions to force the industry to shape up, even without new legislation. A 2023 <a href="https://scholarship.law.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4001&context=wmlr">law review article</a> demonstrates that state and federal governments could use state licensure laws and federal nursing home certification requirements to prevent abuse. The article argues that governments could set clear nursing home ownership and operation criteria for individuals and companies, which can include experience, expertise, reputation, past performance and financial solvency standards.</p>
<p>Even federal prosecutors have largely unused powers to crack down on the industry. The Department of Justice <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/department-justice-launches-national-nursing-home-initiative">has taken actions</a> against many nursing home owners and chains but rarely has moved to remove the certification of facilities despite having the authority to do so. Instead, nursing homes subject to legal action by the department generally are placed under what is known as a corporate integrity agreement and assigned a monitor to oversee regulatory compliance.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://oig.hhs.gov/fraud/cia/agreements/Saber_Healthcare_Holdings_LLC_et_al_03312020.pdf">Saber Healthcare Holdings</a>, which owned <a href="https://data.cms.gov/quality-of-care/nursing-home-affiliated-entity-performance-measures/data">126 nursing homes</a> in 2024, was placed under a <a href="https://oig.hhs.gov/faqs/corporate-integrity-agreement-faq/">corporate integrity agreement</a> in 2021. </p>
<p>The question remains: Why haven’t governments fully flexed their existing regulatory muscles to enforce vital reforms in nursing homes? With the welfare of vulnerable residents at stake, the urgency for decisive action has never been clearer.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/for-profit-nursing-homes-are-cutting-corners-on-safety-and-draining-resources-with-financial-shenanigans-especially-at-midsize-chains-that-dodge-public-scrutiny-225045">Read The Conversation’s investigation</a> to learn more about the nation’s for-profit nursing homes and how they’re cutting corners on safety.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harrington is a advisory board member of the nonprofit Veteran's Health Policy Institute and a board member of the nonprofit Center for Health Information and Policy. Harrington served as an expert witness on nursing home litigation cases by residents against facilities owned or operated by Brius and Shlomo Rechnitz in the past and in 2022. She also served as an expert witness in a case against The Citadel Salisbury in North Carolina in 2021.
</span></em></p>Governments can do more to protect patients at for-profit nursing homes. A behavioral scientist who studies nursing homes weighs in.Charlene Harrington, Professor Emeritus of Social Behavioral Sciences, University of California, San FranciscoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249412024-03-12T12:31:12Z2024-03-12T12:31:12ZPennsylvania overhauled its sentencing guidelines to be more fair and consistent − but racial disparities may not disappear so soon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581063/original/file-20240311-28-gp310p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">According to the state's new guidelines, juvenile convictions that are 10 years or older should no longer be considered when determining a person's sentence.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-of-human-hand-with-handcuffs-royalty-free-image/1254827260">Seksan Mongkhonkhamsao via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Pennsylvania’s new <a href="https://pcs.la.psu.edu/guidelines-statutes/sentencing">sentencing guidelines</a> went into effect on Jan. 1, 2024. They mark the eighth iteration since the state first introduced such guidelines in 1982 and are perhaps the most comprehensive revision to date.</em></p>
<p><em>Since Philadelphia has by far the <a href="https://www.prisonpolicy.org/origin/pa/2020/county.html">largest share of incarcerated people</a> in the state, the new sentencing guidelines affect many Philadelphia residents.</em> </p>
<p><em>C. Clare Strange, an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AbnZo6YAAAAJ&hl=en">assistant research professor</a> in the Department of Criminology and Justice Studies at Drexel University, is the <a href="https://nij.ojp.gov/funding/awards/15pnij-23-gg-01365-nijb">principal investigator in a study</a> that will evaluate the impacts of the new guidelines on racial and ethnic disparities in sentencing outcomes over the next five years. She spoke with The Conversation U.S. about how the guidelines have changed and what people with a criminal history in Philadelphia need to know about them.</em></p>
<h2>How do judges determine a person’s sentence?</h2>
<p>Pennsylvania uses what are known as <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/reports/2008/07/01/state-sentencing-guidelines-profiles-and-continuum">advisory sentencing guidelines</a>. This means that judges are required to consider what the state guidelines suggest a criminal sentence should be, but they are not required to comply with the guidelines. That’s different from other states <a href="https://robinainstitute.umn.edu/publications/sentencing-commissions-and-guidelines-numbers-cross-jurisdictional-comparisons-made">such as Minnesota and Oregon</a> that have mandatory sentencing guidelines. Meanwhile, a majority of U.S. states have <a href="https://www.uscourts.gov/federal-probation-journal/2017/09/state-sentencing-guidelines-garden-full-variety">no sentencing guidelines</a> at all. </p>
<p>In Pennsylvania, judges primarily consider what crime the person is charged with along with their prior record or criminal history. </p>
<p><a href="https://pcs.la.psu.edu/guidelines-statutes/sentencing/">A matrix</a> tells judges what the standard recommended sentencing range would be. Typically, judges sentence a defendant to a minimum term and then, after that minimum term, a parole board decides when it’s appropriate for the person to be released.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pennsylvania's sentencing guidelines based on offense severity and criminal history." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580258/original/file-20240306-26-859ax4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pennsylvania’s 2024 sentencing guidelines matrix.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">PA Commission on Sentencing</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s new in the 2024 sentencing guidelines?</h2>
<p>A lot has changed. Probably the most significant change is re-weighting the two categories in the matrix — offense severity and criminal history. These categories are officially known as the Offense Gravity Score and the Prior Record Score. There are now fewer categories of criminal history and far more categories of offense severity. </p>
<p>The revised guidelines have more than double the number of categories for Offense Gravity Score, which aim to ensure that sentences better align with crime severity. This is important because there is less opportunity for disparities to come through when a sentencing recommendation is more specific and more consistent between similar types of crimes. </p>
<p>Changes to Prior Record Score calculations and categories aim to address racial disparities and refocus sentence recommendations on the current offense. Lapsing policies, for example, have been expanded to reduce the impact of criminal history on sentencing for less serious offenders. These can involve the removal of specific prior offenses from inclusion in the Prior Record Score calculation after a certain amount of time has passed or after the person has had an extended crime-free period. </p>
<h2>What’s the goal of the new guidelines?</h2>
<p>Pennsylvania’s sentencing guideline system was <a href="https://www.legis.state.pa.us/WU01/LI/LI/CT/HTM/42/00.021.054.000..HTM">mandated by the state legislature</a>. The guidelines themselves were created by the <a href="https://pcs.la.psu.edu/">Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing</a> with the the goal of promoting fair and uniform decisions on the severity of people’s punishment. </p>
<p>The commission was not explicitly formed to reduce punishment. That said, it has taken explicit efforts to reduce disparities in punishment that are linked to race and ethnicity. </p>
<p>The commission has <a href="https://pcs.la.psu.edu/policy-administration/about-the-commission/members/">11 members</a> who are appointed by the state Legislature. The members are typically judges, legislators and other criminal justice professionals. These commission members provide direction and oversight and are unique from <a href="https://pcs.la.psu.edu/policy-administration/about-the-commission/staff/">commission staff</a>, who collect, analyze and monitor the sentencing data for the state.</p>
<h2>What’s been the reaction so far?</h2>
<p>Anytime there’s talk about reducing the impact of criminal history on punishment, people express a whole spectrum of beliefs. Not everybody has the same primary concern of reducing disparities. For example, some people prefer more tough-on-crime policies. As a legislative body, the commission answers to many different constituencies.</p>
<p>The new guidelines mirror the <a href="https://www.ussc.gov/guidelines">federal sentencing guidelines</a> in that there are many offense gravity categories. One critique I’ve heard is that the Offense Gravity Score now has too many categories and adjustments, and that this might complicate things such as plea negotiations. </p>
<p><a href="https://bja.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh186/files/media/document/pleabargainingresearchsummary.pdf">About 95% of criminal cases</a> are settled in plea negotiation and never go to trial. Plea negotiations are a hidden interaction where the prosecution negotiates charges and punishments with defense attorneys and their clients in exchange for a plea of guilty or no contest. Having more Offense Gravity Score categories could lead to more complicated and slower plea negotiations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Philadelphia law enforcement officers stand together in front of church in downtown Philadelphia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581033/original/file-20240311-26-4fpfju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Racial disparities exist throughout the criminal justice process, from arrests and charges to sentencing and parole.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PhiladelphiaOfficersShot/807f48dd90604210854a1a15d5e393e7">Joe Lamberti/AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Will the guidelines reduce racial disparities in Pa.’s criminal justice system?</h2>
<p>National statistics show that, on average, a Black person is more likely than a white person to be <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0858-1">stopped by police</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1098611117708791">to experience police use of force</a> when stopped, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854815628026">to be charged</a> when arrested, <a href="https://nij.ojp.gov/library/publications/opening-pandoras-box-how-does-defendant-race-influence-plea-bargaining">to receive more charges</a> when charged, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23367476">to receive a harsher sentence</a>, <a href="https://nij.ojp.gov/library/publications/opening-pandoras-box-how-does-defendant-race-influence-plea-bargaining">to be sentenced to confinement</a> and so on. It’s a cumulative disadvantage across the justice process. </p>
<p>These disparities occur within Pennsylvania, too. For example, a <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP70332.html">December 2023 analysis</a> by the <a href="https://www.rand.org/">Rand Corporation</a>, a nonprofit global policy think tank, looked at racial disparities within the criminal justice system in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh and is Pennsylvania’s second-most populated county after Philadelphia. It found that significant racial disparities exist at each of the key stages of people’s encounter with the criminal justice system, from having charges filed against them to having their parole revoked.</p>
<p>Courts to some degree inherit disparities from police and prosecutor decision making, though the new guidelines may help to reduce them at later stages, such as sentencing.</p>
<p>Racial and ethnic disparities in sentencing are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190264079.013.241">widespread in the U.S.</a> and are almost never entirely explained by legally relevant factors such as type of crime committed or criminal history. So researchers like me explain this leftover variation as the “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23367476">race effect</a>,” or “race and ethnicity effect.” </p>
<p>Part of the commission’s charge is to collect and monitor data, which can be used by the state and other criminal justice researchers. Some states may lack the infrastructure to collect or monitor data to the degree that Pennsylvania does. </p>
<p>That’s where my project comes in. It is designed to use commission data so that at the end of the five years we can determine whether these changes to the guidelines had the intended impact on disparities – and if they didn’t, why not.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>C. Clare Strange receives funding from the National Institute of Justice (NIJ). </span></em></p>The new guidelines are not intended to reduce punishment but aim to reduce disparities in punishment that are linked to race and ethnicity.C. Clare Strange, Assistant Research Professor of Criminology and Justice Studies, Drexel UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229402024-02-15T13:35:30Z2024-02-15T13:35:30ZStudents lose out as cities and states give billions in property tax breaks to businesses − draining school budgets and especially hurting the poorest students<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575520/original/file-20240214-20-j3e0d8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1684%2C678&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Exxon Mobil Corp.'s campus in East Baton Rouge Parish, left, received millions in tax abatements to the detriment of local schools, right.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/oil-refinery-owned-by-exxon-mobil-is-the-second-largest-in-news-photo/1225711980">Barry Lewis/Getty Images, Tjean314/Wikimedia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Built in 1910, James Elementary is a three-story brick school in Kansas City, Missouri’s historic Northeast neighborhood, with a bright blue front door framed by a sand-colored stone arch adorned with a gargoyle. As bustling students and teachers negotiate a maze of gray stairs with worn wooden handrails, Marjorie Mayes, the school’s principal, escorts a visitor across uneven blue tile floors on the ground floor to a classroom with exposed brick walls and pipes. Bubbling paint mars some walls, evidence of the water leaks spreading inside the aging building.</p>
<p>“It’s living history,” said Mayes during a mid-September tour of the building. “Not the kind of living history we want.”</p>
<p>The district would like to tackle the US$400 million in deferred maintenance needed to create a 21st century learning environment at its 35 schools – including James Elementary – but it can’t. It doesn’t have the money.</p>
<h2>Property tax redirect</h2>
<p>The lack of funds is a direct result of the property tax breaks that Kansas City lavishes on companies and developers that do business there. The program is supposed to bring in new jobs and business but instead has ended up draining civic coffers and starving schools. Between 2017 and 2023, the Kansas City school district lost $237.3 million through tax abatements.</p>
<p><iframe id="vGoau" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vGoau/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Kansas City is hardly an anomaly. An <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/incentives-to-pander/E0003C20215EDA5047EA0831FEEB6D92">estimated 95%</a> of U.S. cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors. The upshot is that billions have been diverted from large urban school districts and from a growing number of small suburban and rural districts. The impact is seen in districts as diverse as Chicago and Cleveland, Hillsboro, Oregon, and Storey County, Nevada.</p>
<p>The result? A 2021 <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15575330.2022.2148171">review of 2,498 financial statements</a> from school districts across 27 states revealed that, in 2019 alone, at least $2.4 billion was diverted to fund tax incentives. Yet that substantial figure still downplays the magnitude of the problem, because three-quarters of the 10,370 districts analyzed did not provide any information on tax abatement agreements.</p>
<p>Tax abatement programs have long been controversial, pitting states and communities against one another in beggar-thy-neighbor contests. Their economic value is also, at best, unclear: Studies show most companies <a href="https://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/289/">would have made the same location decision</a> without taxpayer subsidies. Meanwhile, schools make up the largest cost item in these communities, meaning they suffer most when companies are granted breaks in property taxes.</p>
<p>A three-month investigation by The Conversation and three scholars with expertise in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RO4oI-8AAAAJ&hl=en">economic development</a>, <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/education/kevin-welner">tax laws</a> and <a href="https://liberalarts.utexas.edu/government/faculty/nj4353">education policy</a> shows that the cash drain from these programs is not equally shared by schools in the same communities. At the local level, tax abatements and exemptions often come at the cost of <a href="https://www.schoolfinancedata.org/the-adequacy-and-fairness-of-state-school-finance-systems-2024/.">critical funding</a> for school districts that <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3062/2024-01-31_Good_Jobs_First_Abating_Our_Future.pdf?1707953373">disproportionately serve</a>
students from low-income households and who are racial minorities.</p>
<p>In Missouri, for example, in 2022 <a href="https://www.kcpublicschools.org/about/tax-incentives-kcps#:%7E:text=As%20of%202022%2C%20nearly%20%241%2C700,%24500-%24900%20per%20pupil">nearly $1,700 per student was redirected</a> from Kansas City public and charter schools, while between $500 and $900 was redirected from wealthier, whiter Northland schools on the north side of the river in Kansas City and in the suburbs beyond. Other studies have found <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/08912424231174836">similar demographic trends elsewhere</a>, including <a href="https://goodjobsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/How-Tax-Abatements-Cost-New-York-Public-Schools.pdf">New York state</a>, <a href="https://goodjobsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/South-Carolinas-Corporate-Tax-Breaks-2022.pdf">South Carolina</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15575330.2023.2217899">Columbus, Ohio</a>.</p>
<p>The funding gaps produced by abated money often force schools to <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/3325345">delay needed maintenance</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ets2.12098">increase class sizes</a>, <a href="https://districtadministration.com/teacher-layoffs-enter-k12-outlook-school-districts-budget-deficits/">lay off teachers</a> and support staff and even close outright. Schools also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/16/reader-center/us-public-schools-conditions.html">struggle to update or replace</a> outdated technology, books and other educational resources. And, amid a nationwide teacher shortage, schools under financial pressures sometimes turn to inexperienced teachers who are <a href="https://learningpolicyinstitute.org/product/state-teacher-shortages-vacancy-resource-tool">not fully certified</a> or <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/news/education/2023/10/16/dallas-relies-on-international-teachers-more-than-any-other-school-district-in-the-us/">rely too heavily</a> on recruits from overseas who have been given special visa status.</p>
<p>Lost funding also prevents teachers and staff, who often feed, clothe and otherwise go above and beyond to help students in need, from <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/teacher-pay-by-state">earning a living wage</a>. All told, tax abatements can end up harming a community’s value, with constant funding shortfalls creating <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/a-punishing-decade-for-school-funding">a cycle of decline</a>.</p>
<h2>Incentives, payoffs and guarantees</h2>
<p>Perversely, some of the largest beneficiaries of tax abatements are the politicians who publicly boast of handing out the breaks despite the harm to poorer communities. Incumbent governors have used the incentives as a means of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/incentives-to-pander/E0003C20215EDA5047EA0831FEEB6D92">taking credit for job creation</a>, even when the jobs were coming anyway.</p>
<p>“We know that subsidies don’t work,” said <a href="https://www.elizabethmarcello.com/">Elizabeth Marcello</a>, a doctoral lecturer at Hunter College who studies governmental planning and policy and the interactions between state and local governments. “But they are good political stories, and I think that’s why politicians love them so much.”</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Academic research shows that economic development incentives are ineffective most of the time – and harm school systems.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While some voters may celebrate abatements, parents can recognize the disparities between school districts that are created by the tax breaks. Fairleigh Jackson pointed out that her daughter’s East Baton Rouge third grade class lacks access to playground equipment.</p>
<p>The class is attending school in a temporary building while their elementary school undergoes a two-year renovation.</p>
<p>The temporary site has some grass and a cement slab where kids can play, but no playground equipment, Jackson said. And parents needed to set up an Amazon wish list to purchase basic equipment such as balls, jump ropes and chalk for students to use. The district told parents there would be no playground equipment due to a lack of funds, then promised to install equipment, Jackson said, but months later, there is none.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575426/original/file-20240213-28-rkjkme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Cement surface surrounded by a fence with grass beyond. There's no playground equipment.." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575426/original/file-20240213-28-rkjkme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575426/original/file-20240213-28-rkjkme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575426/original/file-20240213-28-rkjkme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575426/original/file-20240213-28-rkjkme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575426/original/file-20240213-28-rkjkme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575426/original/file-20240213-28-rkjkme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575426/original/file-20240213-28-rkjkme.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The temporary site where Fairleigh Jackson’s daughter goes to school in East Baton Rouge Parish lacks playground equipment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fairleigh Jackson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jackson said it’s hard to complain when other schools in the district don’t even have needed security measures in place. “When I think about playground equipment, I think that’s a necessary piece of child development,” Jackson said. “Do we even advocate for something that should be a daily part of our kids’ experience when kids’ safety isn’t being funded?”</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the challenges facing administrators 500-odd miles away at Atlanta Public Schools are nothing if not formidable: The district is dealing with <a href="https://atlanta.capitalbnews.org/chronic-absenteeism-aps/">chronic absenteeism</a> among half of its Black students, many students <a href="https://atlantaciviccircle.org/2023/08/28/more-atlanta-students-homeless-this-school-year/">are experiencing homelessness</a>, and it’s facing a <a href="https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/teacher-retention-an-issue-in-georgia-situation-could-get-worse">teacher shortage</a>.</p>
<p>At the same time, Atlanta is showering corporations with tax breaks. The city has two bodies that dole them out: the Development Authority of Fulton County, or DAFC, and Invest Atlanta, the city’s economic development agency. The deals handed out by the two agencies have drained $103.8 million from schools from fiscal 2017 to 2022, according to Atlanta school system financial statements.</p>
<p><iframe id="U7Z9R" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/U7Z9R/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>What exactly Atlanta and other cities and states are accomplishing with tax abatement programs is hard to discern. <a href="https://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/289/">Fewer than a quarter</a> of companies that receive breaks in the U.S. needed an incentive to invest, according to a 2018 study by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a nonprofit research organization. </p>
<p>This means that at least 75% of companies received tax abatements when they’re not needed – with communities paying a heavy price for economic development that sometimes provides little benefit.</p>
<p>In Kansas City, for example, there’s no guarantee that the businesses that do set up shop after receiving a tax abatement will remain there long term. That’s significant considering the historic border war between the Missouri and Kansas sides of Kansas City – a competition to be the most generous to the businesses, said Jason Roberts, president of the Kansas City Federation of Teachers and School-Related Personnel. Kansas City, Missouri, has a <a href="https://www.kcmo.gov/city-hall/departments/finance/earnings-tax">1% income tax</a> on people who work in the city, so it competes for as many workers as possible to secure that earnings tax, Roberts said.</p>
<p>Under city and state tax abatement programs, companies that used to be in Kansas City have since relocated. The AMC Theaters headquarters, for example, <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2011/09/14/amc-entertainment-will-move-hq-to-ks.html">moved from the city’s downtown</a> to Leawood, Kansas, about a decade ago, garnering some $40 million in <a href="https://www.kansascommerce.gov/program/business-incentives-and-services/peak/">Promoting Employment Across Kansas</a> tax incentives.</p>
<p>Roberts said that when one side’s financial largesse runs out, companies often move across the state line – until both states decided in 2019 that <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/article233725152.html">enough was enough</a> and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-end-of-kansas-missouris-border-war-should-mark-a-new-chapter-for-both-states-economies/">declared a cease-fire</a>.</p>
<p>But tax breaks for other businesses continue. “Our mission is to grow the economy of Kansas City, and application of tools such as tax exemptions are vital to achieving that mission, said Jon Stephens, president and CEO of Port KC, the Kansas City Port Authority. The incentives speed development, and providing them "has resulted in growth choosing KC versus other markets,” he added.</p>
<p>In Atlanta, those tax breaks <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/fulton-authority-gives-tax-breaks-to-projects-in-hot-markets-ajc-finds/PHR5H4SXNRAGRNWHBUUCIPHFQM/">are not going</a> to projects in neighborhoods that need help attracting development. They have largely been handed out to projects that are in high demand areas of the city, said Julian Bene, who served on Invest Atlanta’s board from 2010 to 2018. In 2019, for instance, the Fulton County development authority <a href="https://saportareport.com/fulton-agency-approves-nearly-100-million-in-property-tax-abatements/sections/reports/maggie/">approved a 10-year, $16 million tax abatement</a> for a 410-foot-tall, 27,000-square-foot tower in Atlanta’s vibrant Midtown business district. <a href="https://1105westpeachtree.com/">The project</a> included hotel space, retail space and office space that is now occupied by <a href="https://blog.google/inside-google/company-announcements/atlanta-office/">Google</a> and <a href="https://www.ajc.com/business/economy/invesco-plans-add-500-jobs-new-midtown/CX8ubABcCfK2IuqrJu5nMJ/">Invesco</a>.</p>
<p>In 2021, a developer in Atlanta <a href="https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/ponce-city-market-developer-pulls-request-8-million-tax-break-its-expansion/DYWYAKHVTNH5PPVHFBD5QCZDXY/">pulled its request</a> for an $8 million tax break to expand its new massive, mixed-use Ponce City Market development in the trendy Beltline neighborhood with an office tower and apartment building. Because of community pushback, the developer knew it likely did not have enough votes from the commission for approval, Bene said. After a second try for $5 million in lower taxes was also rejected, the developer went ahead and <a href="https://poncecitymarket.com/directory-view-all">built the project</a> anyway.</p>
<p>Invest Atlanta has also turned down projects in the past, Bene said. Oftentimes, after getting rejected, the developer goes back to the landowner and asks for a better price to buy the property to make their numbers work, because it was overvalued at the start.</p>
<h2>Trouble in Philadelphia</h2>
<p>On Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023, an environmental team was preparing Southwark School in Philadelphia for the winter cold. While checking an attic fan, members of the team saw loose dust on top of flooring that contained asbestos. The dust that certainly was blowing into the floors below could contain the cancer-causing agent. Within a day, <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/education/philadelphia-school-asbestos-closed-southwark-20231027.html">Southwark was closed</a> – the seventh Philadelphia school temporarily shuttered since the previous academic year because of possible asbestos contamination.</p>
<p>A 2019 inspection of the John L Kinsey school in Philadelphia found <a href="https://www.philasd.org/capitalprograms/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2019/11/6280_Building_21_@_John_L_Kinsey_School_2018_2019_3_Year_AHERA_Report.pdf">asbestos in plaster walls, floor tiles, radiator insulation and electrical panels</a>. Asbestos is <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/education/asbestos-closure-philadelphia-school-district-20231027.html">a major problem</a> for Philadelphia’s public schools. The district needs <a href="https://www.philasd.org/capitalprograms/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2017/06/2015-FCA-Final-Report-1.pdf">$430 million</a> to clean up the asbestos, lead, and other environmental hazards that place the health of students, teachers and staff at risk. And that is on top of an additional <a href="https://www.philasd.org/capitalprograms/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2017/06/2015-FCA-Final-Report-1.pdf">$2.4 billion</a> to fix failing and damaged buildings.</p>
<p>Yet the money is not available. Matthew Stem, a former district official, <a href="https://pubintlaw.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/02.07.23-Memorandum-Opinion-Filed-pubintlaw.pdf">testified in a 2023 lawsuit</a> about financing of Pennsylvania schools that the environmental health risks cannot be addressed until an emergency like at Southwark because “existing funding sources are not sufficient to remediate those types of issues.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the city keeps doling out abatements, draining money that could have gone toward making Philadelphia schools safer. In the <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24362508-final-acfr-2022-with-artwork-as-of-022423">fiscal year ending June 2022</a>, such tax breaks cost the school district $118 million – more than 25% of the total amount needed to remove the asbestos and other health dangers. These abatements <a href="https://www.phila.gov/media/20180524153805/City-of-Philadelphia-2018-Abatement.pdf">take 31 years to break even</a>, according to the city’s own <a href="https://www.phila.gov/documents/property-tax-abatement-studies/">scenario impact analyses</a>.</p>
<p>Huge subsets of the community – primarily Black, Brown, poor or a combination – are being “drastically impacted” by the exemptions and funding shortfalls for the school district, said Kendra Brooks, a Philadelphia City Council member. Schools and students are affected by mold, asbestos and lead, and crumbling infrastructure, as well as teacher and staffing shortages – including support staff, social workers and psychologists.</p>
<p>More than half the district’s schools that lacked adequate air conditioning – 87 schools – had to <a href="https://whyy.org/articles/philadelphia-schools-early-dismissals-lack-air-conditioning-extreme-heat/">go to half days</a> during the first week of the 2023 school year because of extreme heat. Poor heating systems also leave the schools cold in the winter. And some schools are overcrowded, resulting in large class sizes, she said.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575461/original/file-20240213-28-1b0wxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Front of a four-story brick school building with tall windows, some with air-conditioners" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575461/original/file-20240213-28-1b0wxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575461/original/file-20240213-28-1b0wxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575461/original/file-20240213-28-1b0wxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575461/original/file-20240213-28-1b0wxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575461/original/file-20240213-28-1b0wxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575461/original/file-20240213-28-1b0wxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575461/original/file-20240213-28-1b0wxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Horace Furness High School in Philadelphia, where hot summers have temporarily closed schools that lack air conditioning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Horace_Furness_High_School_1900_S_3rd_St_Philadelphia_PA_%28DSC_3038%29.jpg">Nick-philly/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Teachers and researchers agree that a lack of adequate funding undermines educational opportunities and outcomes. That’s especially true for children living in poverty. <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26495136">A 2016 study</a> found that a 10% increase in per-pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public schooling results in nearly one-third of a year of more education, 7.7% higher wages and a 3.2% reduction in annual incidence of adult poverty. The study estimated that a 21.7% increase could eliminate the high school graduation gap faced by children from low-income families.</p>
<p>More money for schools leads to more education resources for students and their teachers. The same researchers found that spending increases were associated with reductions in student-to-teacher ratios, increases in teacher salaries and longer school years. Other studies <a href="https://hep.gse.harvard.edu/9781682532447/educational-inequality-and-school-finance/">yielded similar results</a>: <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25368/w25368.pdf">School funding matters</a>, especially for children already suffering the harms of poverty.</p>
<p>While tax abatements themselves are generally linked to rising property values, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21862">benefits are not evenly distributed</a>. In fact, any expansion of the tax base due to new property construction tends to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15575339809489773">outside of the county granting the tax abatement</a>. For families in school districts with the lost tax revenues, their neighbors’ good fortune likely comes as little solace. Meanwhile, a poorly funded education system is less likely to yield a <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13398/education-for-life-and-work-developing-transferable-knowledge-and-skills">skilled and competitive workforce</a>, creating <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199982981.003.0014">longer-term economic costs</a> that make the region less attractive for businesses and residents.</p>
<p>“There’s a head-on collision here between private gain and the future quality of America’s workforce,” said Greg LeRoy, executive director at Good Jobs First, a Washington, D.C., advocacy group that’s critical of tax abatement and tracks the use of economic development subsidies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575449/original/file-20240213-26-7jhmm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three-story school building with police officers out front and traffic lights in the foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575449/original/file-20240213-26-7jhmm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575449/original/file-20240213-26-7jhmm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575449/original/file-20240213-26-7jhmm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575449/original/file-20240213-26-7jhmm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575449/original/file-20240213-26-7jhmm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575449/original/file-20240213-26-7jhmm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575449/original/file-20240213-26-7jhmm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Roxborough High School in Philadelphia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1X4dQQT50psqFFY1sPKeUz_wAk8eOtZ44/view?usp=sharing">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As funding dwindles and educational quality declines, additional <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3739064">families with means often opt for</a> alternative educational avenues such as private schooling, home-schooling or moving to a different school district, further weakening the public school system.</p>
<p>Throughout the U.S., parents with the power to do so <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0161956X.2015.988536">demand special arrangements</a>, such as selective schools or high-track enclaves that <a href="https://www.nyulawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NYULawReview-93-4-Miller.pdf">hire experienced, fully prepared</a> teachers. If demands aren’t met, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0895904818802106">they leave</a> the district’s public schools for private schools or for the suburbs. Some parents even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-4469.2009.01166.x">organize to splinter</a> their more advantaged, and generally whiter, neighborhoods away from the larger urban school districts.</p>
<p>Those parental demands – known among scholars as “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-6991-3">opportunity hoarding</a>” – may seem unreasonable from the outside, but scarcity breeds very real fears about educational harms inflicted on one’s own children. Regardless of who’s to blame, the children who bear the heaviest burden of the nation’s concentrated poverty and racialized poverty again lose out.</p>
<h2>Rethinking in Philadelphia and Riverhead</h2>
<p>Americans also ask public schools to accomplish Herculean tasks that go <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15575330.2023.2217881">far beyond the education basics</a>, as many parents discovered at the onset of the pandemic when schools closed and their support for families largely disappeared.</p>
<p>A school serving students who endure housing and food insecurity must dedicate resources toward children’s basic needs and trauma. But districts serving more low-income students <a href="https://edtrust.org/resource/equal-is-not-good-enough/">spend less per student</a> on average, and almost half the states <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED596199.pdf">have regressive funding structures</a>.</p>
<p>Facing dwindling resources for schools, several cities have begun to rethink their tax exemption programs.</p>
<p>The Philadelphia City Council recently passed a scale-back on a <a href="https://www.phila.gov/2018-05-24-city-releases-study-of-10-year-property-tax-abatement/">10-year property tax abatement</a> by decreasing the percentage of the subsidy over that time. But even with that change, millions will be lost to tax exemptions that could instead be invested in cash-depleted schools. “We could make major changes in our schools’ infrastructure, curriculum, staffing, staffing ratios, support staff, social workers, school psychologists – take your pick,” Brooks said.</p>
<p>Other cities looking to reform tax abatement programs are taking a different approach. In Riverhead, New York, on Long Island, developers or project owners can be granted exemptions on their property tax and allowed instead to shell out a far smaller “payment in lieu of taxes,” or PILOT. When the abatement ends, most commonly after 10 years, the businesses then will pay full property taxes.</p>
<p>At least, that’s the idea, but the system is <a href="https://nysfocus.com/2023/10/11/riverhead-ida-tax-breaks-aquarium-school">far from perfect</a>. Beneficiaries of the PILOT program have failed to pay on time, leaving the school board struggling to fill a budget hole. Also, the payments <a href="https://nysfocus.com/2023/10/11/riverhead-ida-tax-breaks-aquarium-school">are not equal</a> to the amount they would receive for property taxes, with millions of dollars in potential revenue over a decade being cut to as little as a few hundred thousand. On the back end, if a business that’s subsidized with tax breaks fails after 10 years, the projected benefits never emerge.</p>
<p>And when the time came to start paying taxes, developers have returned to the city’s Industrial Development Agency with hat in hand, asking for more tax breaks. A <a href="https://www.newsday.com/business/ida-tax-breaks-nestle-aquarium-steel-i30377">local for-profit aquarium</a>, for example, was granted a 10-year PILOT program break by Riverhead in 1999; it has received so many extensions that it is not scheduled to start paying full taxes until 2031 – 22 years after originally planned.</p>
<h2>Kansas City border politics</h2>
<p>Like many cities, Kansas City has a long history of segregation, white flight and racial redlining, said Kathleen Pointer, senior policy strategist for Kansas City Public Schools.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575513/original/file-20240214-16-znl7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575513/original/file-20240214-16-znl7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575513/original/file-20240214-16-znl7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575513/original/file-20240214-16-znl7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575513/original/file-20240214-16-znl7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575513/original/file-20240214-16-znl7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575513/original/file-20240214-16-znl7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575513/original/file-20240214-16-znl7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">James Elementary in Kansas City, Mo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Danielle McLean</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Troost Avenue, where the Kansas City Public Schools administrative office is located, serves as the city’s <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/decades-dividing-line-troost-avenue-kansas-city-mo-sees-new-n918851">historic racial dividing line</a>, with wealthier white families living in the west and more economically disadvantaged people of color in the east. Most of the district’s schools are located east of Troost, not west.</p>
<p>Students on the west side “pretty much automatically funnel into the college preparatory middle school and high schools,” said The Federation of Teachers’ Roberts. Those schools are considered signature schools that are selective and are better taken care of than the typical neighborhood schools, he added.</p>
<p>The school district’s tax levy was set by voters in 1969 at 3.75%. But successive attempts over the next few decades to increase the levy at the ballot box failed. During a decadeslong desegregation lawsuit that was eventually resolved through a settlement agreement in the 1990s, a court raised the district’s levy rate to 4.96% without voter approval. The levy has remained at the same 4.96% rate since.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Kansas City is still distributing 20-year tax abatements to companies and developers for projects. The district calculated that about 92% of the money that was abated within the school district’s boundaries was for projects within the whiter west side of the city, Pointer said.</p>
<p>“Unfortunately, we can’t pick or choose where developers build,” said Meredith Hoenes, director of communications for Port KC. “We aren’t planning and zoning. Developers typically have plans in place when they knock on our door.”</p>
<p>In Kansas City, <a href="https://kcbeacon.org/stories/2021/11/29/kansas-city-tax-incentives/">several agencies administer tax incentives</a>, allowing developers to shop around to different bodies to receive one. Pointer said he believes the Port Authority is popular because they don’t do a third-party financial analysis to prove that the developers need the amount that they say they do.</p>
<p>With 20-year abatements, a child will start pre-K and graduate high school before seeing the benefits of a property being fully on the tax rolls, Pointer said. Developers, meanwhile, routinely threaten to build somewhere else if they don’t get the incentive, she said.</p>
<p>In 2020, BlueScope Construction, a company that had received tax incentives for nearly 20 years and was about to roll off its abatement, asked for another 13 years and <a href="https://www.kcur.org/news/2020-06-25/kansas-city-council-rejects-incentives-for-a-company-that-threatened-to-move-across-state-line">threatened to move</a> to another state if it didn’t get it. At the time, the U.S. was grappling with a racial reckoning following the murder of George Floyd, who was killed by a Minneapolis police officer.</p>
<p>“That was a moment for Kansas City Public Schools where we really drew a line in the sand and talked about incentives as an equity issue,” Pointer said.</p>
<p>After the district raised the issue – <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/development/article243798657.html">tying the incentives to systemic racism</a> – the City Council rejected BlueScope’s bid and, three years later, it’s still in Kansas City, fully on the tax rolls, she said. BlueScope did not return multiple requests for comment.</p>
<p>Recently, a <a href="https://kcbeacon.org/stories/2023/07/18/port-kc-waldo-plaza-tax-breaks/">multifamily housing project</a> was approved for a <a href="https://www.kcur.org/news/2023-08-30/port-kc-approves-20-year-tax-incentive-deal-for-plaza-apartments">20-year tax abatement</a> by the Port Authority of Kansas City at Country Club Plaza, an outdoor shopping center in an affluent part of the city. The housing project included no affordable units. “This project was approved without any independent financial analysis proving that it needed that subsidy,” Pointer said.</p>
<p>All told, the Kansas City Public Schools district faces several shortfalls beyond the $400 million in deferred maintenance, Superintendent Jennifer Collier said. There are staffing shortages at all positions: teachers, paraprofessionals and support staff. As in much of the U.S., the cost of housing is surging. New developments that are being built do not include affordable housing, or when they do, the units are still out of reach for teachers.</p>
<p>That’s making it harder for a district that already loses about 1 in 5 of its teachers each year to keep or recruit new ones, who earn an average of only $46,150 their first year on the job, Collier said.</p>
<h2>East Baton Rouge and the industrial corridor</h2>
<p>It’s impossible to miss the tanks, towers, pipes and industrial structures that incongruously line Baton Rouge’s Scenic Highway landscape. They’re part of Exxon Mobil Corp.’s campus, home of the oil giant’s refinery in addition to chemical and plastics plants.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575171/original/file-20240213-20-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial view of industrial buildings along a river" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575171/original/file-20240213-20-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575171/original/file-20240213-20-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575171/original/file-20240213-20-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575171/original/file-20240213-20-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575171/original/file-20240213-20-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575171/original/file-20240213-20-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575171/original/file-20240213-20-ey3jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Baton Rouge campus occupies 3.28 square miles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/3c6e5c10434a44c48929197377f7a717?ext=true">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sitting along the Mississippi River, <a href="https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/locations/united-states/baton-rouge-area-operations-overview#Safetyhealthandenvironment">the campus</a> has been a staple of Louisiana’s capital for over 100 years. It’s where 6,000 employees and contractors who collectively earn over $400 million annually produce <a href="https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/global/files/locations/united-states-operations/baton-rouge/2022-brrf-fact-sheet.pdf">522,000 barrels</a> of crude oil per day when at full capacity, as well as the annual production and manufacture of <a href="https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/global/files/locations/united-states-operations/baton-rouge/2022-brpo-fact-sheet.pdf">3 billion pounds</a> of high-density polyethylene and polypropylene and <a href="https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/global/files/locations/united-states-operations/baton-rouge/2022-brcp-fact-sheet.pdf">6.6 billion pounds</a> of petrochemical products. The company posted a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-smashes-western-oil-majors-earnings-record-with-59-billion-profit-2023-01-31/">record-breaking</a> <a href="https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/news/news-releases/2023/0131_exxonmobil-announces-full-year-2022-results">$55.7 billion</a> in profits in 2022 and <a href="https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/news/news-releases/2024/0202_exxonmobil-announces-2023-results">$36 billion</a> in 2023.</p>
<p>Across the street are empty fields and roads leading into neighborhoods that have been designated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture as a low-income <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-access-research-atlas/go-to-the-atlas/">food desert</a>. A mile drive down the street to Route 67 is a Dollar General, fast-food restaurants, and tiny, rundown food stores. A Hi Nabor Supermarket is 4 miles away.</p>
<p>East Baton Rouge Parish’s McKinley High School, a 12-minute drive from the refinery, serves a student body that is about 80% Black and 85% poor. The school, which boasts famous alums such as rapper Kevin Gates, former NBA player Tyrus Thomas and Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Gardner C. Taylor, holds a special place in the community, but it has been beset by violence and tragedy lately. Its football team quarterback, <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2709703-mckinley-high-school-qb-bryant-lee-fatally-shot-days-before-graduation">who was killed</a> days before graduation in 2017, was among at least four of McKinley’s students who <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/crime_police/mckinley-high-student-shot-and-injured-near-baton-rouge-campus-school-placed-on-lockdown/article_f1025d24-2f07-11e9-9d4e-2789b90eae2f.html">have been shot</a> <a href="https://www.nola.com/archive/suspects-in-up-and-coming-baton-rouge-rappers-november-slaying-not-indicted-or-cleared/article_c18af908-164c-5c16-b871-55e7fbe3dbf8.html">or murdered</a> <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/crime_police/he-played-tuba-baseball-at-mckinley-and-dreamed-of-college-a-shooting-cut-it-all/article_0f5fa014-9e73-11ec-941e-0f819ca7bca1.html">over the past six years</a>.</p>
<p>The experience is starkly different at some of the district’s more advantaged schools, including its magnet programs open to high-performing students.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575533/original/file-20240214-26-gvctzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black-and-white outline of Louisiana showing the parishes, with one, near the bottom right, filled in red" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575533/original/file-20240214-26-gvctzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575533/original/file-20240214-26-gvctzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575533/original/file-20240214-26-gvctzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575533/original/file-20240214-26-gvctzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575533/original/file-20240214-26-gvctzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575533/original/file-20240214-26-gvctzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575533/original/file-20240214-26-gvctzn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">East Baton Rouge Parish, marked in red, includes an Exxon Mobil Corp. campus and the city of Baton Rouge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Louisiana_highlighting_East_Baton_Rouge_Parish.svg">David Benbennick/Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Baton Rouge is a tale of two cities, with some of the worst outcomes in the state for education, income and mortality, and some of the best outcomes. “It was only separated by sometimes a few blocks,” said Edgar Cage, the lead organizer for the advocacy group Together Baton Rouge. Cage, who grew up in the city when it was segregated by Jim Crow laws, said the root cause of that disparity was racism.</p>
<p>“Underserved kids don’t have a path forward” in East Baton Rouge public schools, Cage said.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://urbanleaguela.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/BR-Equity-Report-Online.pdf">2019 report</a> from the Urban League of Louisiana found that economically disadvantaged African American and Hispanic students are not provided equitable access to high-quality education opportunities. That has contributed to those students underperforming on standardized state assessments, such as the LEAP exam, being unprepared to advance to higher grades and being excluded from high-quality curricula and instruction, as well as the highest-performing schools and magnet schools.</p>
<p>“Baton Rouge is home to some of the highest performing schools in the state,” according to the report. “Yet the highest performing schools and schools that have selective admissions policies often exclude disadvantaged students and African American and Hispanic students.”</p>
<p>Dawn Collins, who served on the district’s school board from 2016 to 2022, said that with more funding, the district could provide more targeted interventions for students who were struggling academically or additional support to staff so they can better assist students with greater needs.</p>
<p>But for decades, Louisiana’s <a href="https://www.opportunitylouisiana.gov/business-incentives/industrial-tax-exemption">Industrial Ad Valorem Tax Exemption</a> <a href="https://www.opportunitylouisiana.gov/business-incentives/industrial-tax-exemption">Program</a>, or ITEP, allowed for 100% property tax exemptions for industrial manufacturing facilities, said Erin Hansen, the statewide policy analyst at Together Louisiana, a network of 250 religious and civic organizations across the state that advocates for grassroots issues, including tax fairness.</p>
<p>The ITEP program was created in the 1930s through a state constitutional amendment, allowing companies to bypass a public vote and get approval for the exemption through the governor-appointed <a href="https://www.opportunitylouisiana.gov/boards-reports-and-rules/louisiana-board-of-commerce-and-industry">Board of Commerce and Industry</a>, Hansen said. For over 80 years, that board approved nearly all applications that it received, she said.</p>
<p>Since 2000, Louisiana has granted a total of <a href="https://fastlaneng.louisianaeconomicdevelopment.com/public/reports">$35 billion in corporate property tax breaks</a> for 12,590 projects. </p>
<h2>Louisiana’s executive order</h2>
<p>A few efforts to reform the program over the years have largely failed. But in 2016, Gov. John Bel Edwards <a href="https://gov.louisiana.gov/assets/ExecutiveOrders/JBE16-26.pdf">signed an executive order</a> that slightly but importantly tweaked the system. On top of the state board vote, the order gave local taxing bodies – such as school boards, sheriffs and parish or city councils – the ability to vote on their own individual portions of the tax exemptions. And in 2019 the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/education/itep-critics-defeat-exxonmobil-tax-break-requests-at-school-board-here-are-next-steps/article_09cb2d54-1a68-11e9-a672-7f6ee09f1f74.html">exercised its power</a> to vote down an abatement.</p>
<p>Throughout the U.S., <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15575330.2022.2148171">school boards’ power over the tax abatements</a> that affect their budgets vary, and in some states, including Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey and South Carolina, school boards lack any formal ability to vote or comment on tax abatement deals that affect them.</p>
<p>Edwards’ executive order also capped the maximum exemption at 80% and tightened the rules so routine capital investments and maintenance were no longer eligible, Hansen said. A requirement concerning job creation was also put in place.</p>
<p>Concerned residents and activists, led by Together Louisiana and sister group Together Baton Rouge, rallied around the new rules and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/05/us/louisiana-itep-exxon-mobil.html">pushed back</a> against the billion-dollar corporation taking more tax money from the schools. In 2019, the campaign worked: the school board rejected a $2.9 million property tax break bid by Exxon Mobil.</p>
<p>After the decision, Exxon Mobil reportedly described the city as “<a href="https://www.businessreport.com/business/exxonmobil-calls-baton-rouge-unpredictable-for-investment-after-itep-requests-rejected">unpredictable</a>.”</p>
<p>However, members of the business community have continued to lobby for the tax breaks, and they have pushed back against further rejections. In fact, according to Hansen, loopholes were created during the rulemaking process around the governor’s executive order that allowed companies to weaken its effectiveness.</p>
<p>In total, <a href="https://fastlaneng.louisianaeconomicdevelopment.com/public/reports">223 Exxon Mobil projects</a> worth nearly $580 million in tax abatements have been granted in the state of Louisiana under the ITEP program since 2000.</p>
<p>“ITEP is needed to compete with other states – and, in ExxonMobil’s case, other countries,” according to Exxon Mobil spokesperson Lauren Kight.</p>
<p>She pointed out that Exxon Mobil is the largest property taxpayer for the EBR school system, paying more than $46 million in property taxes in EBR parish in 2022 and another $34 million in sales taxes.</p>
<p>A new ITEP contract won’t decrease this existing tax revenue, Kight added. “Losing out on future projects absolutely will.”</p>
<p>The East Baton Rouge Parish School Board has continued to approve Exxon Mobil abatements, passing $46.9 million between 2020 and 2022. Between 2017 and 2023, the school district has lost $96.3 million.</p>
<p><iframe id="8PBGX" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8PBGX/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Taxes are highest when industrial buildings are first built. Industrial property comes onto the tax rolls at <a href="https://ascensionedc.com/local-incentives/#">40% to 50% of its original value</a> in Louisiana after the initial 10-year exemption, according to the Ascension Economic Development Corp.</p>
<p>Exxon Mobil received its latest tax exemption, $8.6 million over 10 years – an 80% break – in October 2023 for $250 million to install facilities at the Baton Rouge complex that purify isopropyl alcohol for microchip production and that create a new advanced recycling facility, allowing the company to address plastic waste. The project <a href="https://go.boarddocs.com/la/ebrp/Board.nsf/files/CV7LXR562D7C/$file/ITEP-Exxon%20Mobil%20Corporation%2020230071-ITE%20Application.pdf">created zero new jobs</a>.</p>
<p>The school board <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-Ry-veRlM4">approved it by a 7-2 vote</a> after a long and occasionally contentious board meeting.</p>
<p>“Does it make sense for Louisiana and other economically disadvantaged states to kind of compete with each other by providing tax incentives to mega corporations like Exxon Mobil?” said EBR School Board Vice President Patrick Martin, who voted for the abatement. “Probably, in a macro sense, it does not make a lot of sense. But it is the program that we have.”</p>
<p>Obviously, Exxon Mobil benefits, he said. “The company gets a benefit in reducing the property taxes that they would otherwise pay on their industrial activity that adds value to that property.” But the community benefits from the 20% of the property taxes that are not exempted, he said.</p>
<p>“I believe if we don’t pass it, over time the investments will not come and our district as a whole will have less money,” he added.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/E-9hbVfhZRQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In 2022, a year when Exxon Mobil made a record $55.7 billion, the company asked for a 10-year, 80% property tax break from the cash-starved East Baton Rouge Parish school district. A lively debate ensued.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, the district’s budgetary woes are coming to a head. Bus drivers staged a sickout at the start of the school year, refusing to pick up students – in protest of low pay and not having buses equipped with air conditioning amid a heat wave. The district was forced to release students early, leaving kids stranded without a ride to school, before it acquiesced and provided the drivers and other staff <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/education/lost-class-time-due-to-baton-rouge-bus-crisis-to-be-made-up/article_f5666e24-4694-11ee-8f5d-87183159ce0e.html">one-time stipends</a> and purchased new buses with air conditioning.</p>
<p>The district also agreed to reestablish transfer points as a temporary response to the shortages. But that transfer-point plan has historically resulted in students riding on the bus for hours and occasionally missing breakfast when the bus arrives late, according to Angela Reams-Brown, president of the East Baton Rouge Federation of Teachers. The district plans to purchase or lease over 160 buses and solve its bus driver shortage next year, but the plan could lead to <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/education/baton-rouge-school-bus-crisis-could-lead-to-budget-crisis/article_a24d6502-5fdb-11ee-ad9c-c378e2276bbf.html">a budget crisis</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.wafb.com/2023/06/20/program-aimed-help-teacher-shortage/">teacher shortage looms</a> as well, because the district is paying teachers below the regional average. At the school board meeting, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-Ry-veRlM4">Laverne Simoneaux</a>, an ELL specialist at East Baton Rouge’s Woodlawn Elementary, said she was informed that her job was not guaranteed next year since she’s being paid through federal COVID-19 relief funds. By receiving tax exemptions, Exxon Mobil was taking money from her salary to deepen their pockets, she said.</p>
<p>A young student in the district told the school board that the money could provide better internet access or be used to hire someone to pick up the glass and barbed wire in the playground. But at least they have a playground – Hayden Crockett, a seventh grader at Sherwood Middle Academic Magnet School, noted that his sister’s elementary school lacked one.</p>
<p>“If it wasn’t in the budget to fund playground equipment, how can it also be in the budget to give one of the most powerful corporations in the world a tax break?” Crockett said. “The math just ain’t mathing.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222940/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christine Wen worked for the nonprofit organization Good Jobs First from June 2019 to May 2022 where she helped collect tax abatement data. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathan Jensen has received funding from the John and Laura Arnold Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. He is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Danielle McLean and Kevin Welner do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An estimated 95% of US cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors, taking billions away from schools.Christine Wen, Assistant Professor of Landscape Architecture & Urban Planning, Texas A&M UniversityDanielle McLean, Freelance Reporter and Editor, The ConversationKevin Welner, Professor of Education Policy & Law; Director of the National Education Policy Center, University of Colorado BoulderNathan Jensen, Professor of Government, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212032024-01-18T13:28:12Z2024-01-18T13:28:12ZConflict over William Penn statue removal in Philadelphia misses a point – Penn himself might have objected to it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569690/original/file-20240116-25-ynf8i8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C0%2C5808%2C3895&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A statue of William Penn stands at Welcome Park in Philadelphia.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WilliamPennStatue/3c580aa0cf7c4b1b9a04e895d6cb4410/photo?Query=william%20penn%20statue&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=21&currentItemNo=3">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The National Park Service’s <a href="https://www.nps.gov/inde/learn/news/park-seeks-input-on-the-rehabilitation-of-welcome-park.htm">proposed removal of a statue of William Penn</a> from Philadelphia’s Welcome Park turned out to be short-lived. Announced on Jan. 5, 2024, the proposal was quickly <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia/william-penn-statue-philadelphia-nps-social-media-outrage-20240109.html">pulled from consideration</a> due to a public firestorm. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.repcutler.com/News/33378/Latest-News/Cutler-decries-Biden-administration-attempt-to-cancel-William-Penn">Republican leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives</a> accused the Biden administration of attempting to “cancel William Penn out of whole cloth.” The proposal was, he said, an example of contemporary left-wing “wokeism.” <a href="https://twitter.com/GovernorShapiro/status/1744502454048178194">The state’s Democratic governor</a> had also opposed the plans.</p>
<p>Setting aside debates over whether the statue should remain in its Welcome Park location or not, however, you could ask a slightly different question: Should there be a statue at all?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/today-in-history/october-14/#:%7E:text=William%20Penn%2C%20English%20religious%20and,of%20his%20North%20American%20colony.">Born in London in 1644, Penn</a> spent the better part of his adult life advocating against the persecution of religious dissenters. <a href="https://firstamendment.mtsu.edu/article/william-penn/#:%7E:text=Penn%20used%20his%20diplomatic%20skills,formation%20of%20the%20Pennsylvania%20colony.">King Charles II granted him an American colony in 1681</a>; he traveled to America the following year, arriving on the ship Welcome – hence the name, Welcome Park. </p>
<p>Penn envisioned his colony as a place where <a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/essays/william-penn-and-the-founding-of-pennsylvania">civil and religious liberty could thrive</a> in ways that were impossible in his home country. Although he spent just four years in America, <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/founding-fathers-pennsylvania">he oversaw the founding of the colonial government</a> as well as its capital city, Philadelphia. Since 1894, a 37-foot statue of Penn has <a href="https://www.associationforpublicart.org/artwork/william-penn/">graced the top of Philadelphia City Hall</a>; the present controversy had to do with a 6-foot replica of that statue, located at the former site of Penn’s first Philadelphia home.</p>
<p>Having spent the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/william-penn-9780190234249">better part of two decades studying Penn’s life</a>, career and legacy, one thing stands out to me clearly: The Quakerism that transformed Penn’s life in Ireland, in his early 20s, and that he spent the rest of his life serving and promoting, was profoundly hostile to expressions of human vanity. It condemned anything that suggested the elevation of one individual or social class over others.</p>
<p>In other words, William Penn might well have objected to a William Penn statue. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569935/original/file-20240117-19-nkd0gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A green lawn with gravestones at the far end, surrounded by trees and shrubs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569935/original/file-20240117-19-nkd0gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569935/original/file-20240117-19-nkd0gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569935/original/file-20240117-19-nkd0gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569935/original/file-20240117-19-nkd0gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569935/original/file-20240117-19-nkd0gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569935/original/file-20240117-19-nkd0gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569935/original/file-20240117-19-nkd0gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">William Penn and several family members are buried here, or somewhere near here, in Jordans, England.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gregory Zucker, contributed</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Opposing expressions of vanity</h2>
<p>These egalitarian principles – expressed through such vehicles as plain speech and dress, a refusal to remove hats to honor social “superiors,” and a rejection of luxurious apparel and worldly titles – precipitated a bitter rupture between Penn and his father when he became affiliated with the Society of Friends – the formal name for the Quakers – in 1667. They also set him on the path that would lead him to Pennsylvania 15 years later.</p>
<p>Penn made his name as a defender of such plain principles. He was fined by the judge for refusing to remove his hat at his 1670 London trial for unlawful assembly and disturbing the peace, stemming from his <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Peoples_Ancient_and_Just_Liberties_A/mcNbAAAAcAAJ?hl=en">preaching to an unauthorized religious gathering</a>. As he put it, “I do not believe, that to be any respect.” Despite numerous threats from the judge, Penn’s jury found him not guilty. The fine for refusing to remove his hat, however, remained in force. He had earlier offered no fewer than 16 reasons against such “hat-honour” in his pamphlet, published in 1669, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/William-Penn-English-Quaker-leader-and-colonist">titled “No Cross, No Crown.</a>”</p>
<p>A decade later, shortly after <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/17th_century/pa01.asp">receiving his colonial charter</a>, Penn took pains to ensure that people knew his American colony was not named for him, which would have represented the height of personal vanity. It was <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/William-Penn-British-admiral">named for his father</a>, a well-known naval commander and friend of Charles II. Though William Penn had proposed “New Wales,” that name was rejected; when he suggested “Sylvania,” the king added “Penn.” </p>
<p>Thus was born Pennsylvania, Penn wrote <a href="https://digitallibrary.hsp.org/index.php/Detail/objects/13236">in a letter to fellow English Quaker Robert Turner</a>, “a name the King [gave] it in honor to my father … whom he often mentions with praise.” Penn even tried to bribe the undersecretaries of state to change the name, “for I feared lest it should be looked on as vanity in me.” </p>
<p>Members of the Society of Friends were so committed to opposing expressions of vanity that for a time, both during Penn’s lifetime and for years after his death, they forbade grave markers entirely.</p>
<h2>Unmarked grave or grand mausoleum?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/today-in-history/october-14/">Penn died in 1718 in England</a>. Philadelphia lawyer George Harrison was deputized by Pennsylvania’s government to <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/08016753/">bring Penn’s remains</a> back from England to Philadelphia in 1882, to mark 200 years since the founder’s first arrival. </p>
<p>But Quakers in Jordans, a village in Buckinghamshire, England, where Penn is buried, insisted that the precise location of Penn’s remains were unknown. The meeting – in other words, the local Quaker congregation – had decided to do away with gravestones entirely in 1766. Friends Meeting clerk Richard Littleboy told Harrison that no one was entirely sure where Penn rested. </p>
<p>Jordans Friends also pointed to the incongruity of Penn being interred in a grand mausoleum, with pomp and fanfare, as Pennsylvania officials planned to do, when Friends’ principles pointed so firmly in the opposite direction. </p>
<p>Littleboy protested “the removal of his remains to a trans-atlantic home, amid the pomp and circumstance of a state ceremonial, accompanied in all probability by military honors and parade,” which he considered “utterly repugnant” to Penn’s “<a href="https://archive.org/details/remainsofwilliam00harr/page/42/mode/2up">character and sentiment</a>.”</p>
<p>And so Harrison returned to Pennsylvania empty-handed, and <a href="https://journals.sas.ac.uk/fhs/article/view/4614/4566">Penn remains to this day somewhere</a> in the burial ground outside Jordans Meetinghouse in Buckinghamshire, England.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569695/original/file-20240116-27-2jwy6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man wearing a large black hat; a white long-haired wig and 18th-century clothes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569695/original/file-20240116-27-2jwy6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569695/original/file-20240116-27-2jwy6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569695/original/file-20240116-27-2jwy6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569695/original/file-20240116-27-2jwy6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569695/original/file-20240116-27-2jwy6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569695/original/file-20240116-27-2jwy6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569695/original/file-20240116-27-2jwy6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">William Penn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.npg.org.uk/collections/search/use-this-image/?mkey=mw42786">An engraving by Prior, after Unknown artist, National Portrait Gallery</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From City Hall to Welcome Park</h2>
<p>The statue in Welcome Park pales, of course, compared to the massive Penn that stands atop City Hall, and which, as an iconic part of Philadelphia’s skyline for more than a century, is surely not going anywhere anytime soon.</p>
<p>The Welcome Park site more generally – which also includes a model of the <a href="http://phillyhistoryphotos.com/slate-roof-house/">Slate Roof House</a>, Penn’s first home in Philadelphia – is a historically significant site that merits upkeep and interpretive resources appropriate to 21st century concerns. There are many ways to accomplish these tasks. It is worth noting that representatives from the Native American tribes consulted by the Park Service on the plan for the park apparently were not especially concerned about <a href="https://apnews.com/article/william-penn-statue-native-american-philadelphia-fd36a446127f987c3935931f94ecd477">either the statue or its location in Welcome Park</a>.</p>
<p>The statue itself – in miniature, at Welcome Park, or supersized, on City Hall – implicitly poses its own question: How best to commemorate someone who spent his life guided by the principles of a group that resisted commemoration?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>
In the past I received a National Endowment for the Humanities fellowship (2011-12) to study Penn's political thought.</span></em></p>A proposal to remove William Penn’s statue from a Philadelphia park was pulled after public outcry. Penn’s biographer says his Quaker religion may well have disapproved of such a statue.Andrew Murphy, Professor of Political Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124232023-09-08T12:25:10Z2023-09-08T12:25:10ZPhiladelphia police rarely release body camera videos − here’s why it happened in the fatal shooting of Eddie Irizarry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546768/original/file-20230906-27-fxewci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C26%2C6000%2C3961&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">About 68% of Philadelphia police wear body cameras, but the footage is rarely made public.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/philadelphia-police-officers-carry-metal-barricades-as-news-photo/1504681837">Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>After weeks of public pressure, Philadelphia police on Sept. 8, 2023, released <a href="https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/eddie-irizarry-police-bodycam-charges-philadelphia/3640947/">body camera footage</a> capturing the fatal shooting of 27-year-old Eddie Irizarry by police in August.</em> </p>
<p><em>The Conversation spoke to <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=los44hoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Jordan M. Hyatt</a>, associate professor of criminology and justice studies and the director of the Center for Public Policy at Philadelphia’s Drexel University, to explain the rules controlling when the public gets to see body cam footage – and how Philadelphia’s legal framework compares to other places in the U.S.</em> </p>
<h2>How long have Philadelphia police been using body cams?</h2>
<p>The department began using what are more formally known as “body-worn cameras” as part of <a href="https://billypenn.com/2022/03/06/philadelphia-police-12-year-old-killing-thomas-siderio-body-cameras/">a pilot program in 2014</a> – about seven years after <a href="https://www.policeforum.org/assets/BWCCostBenefit.pdf">the cameras first became available</a> <a href="https://americanpoliceofficersalliance.com/police-use-body-worn-video-brief-history/">in the U.K.</a> However, their use in Philadelphia did not become <a href="https://whyy.org/articles/philly-reaches-12-5m-deal-taser-maker-police-body-cameras/">widespread until 2017</a>. Even now, only about 68% of all officers wear one, according to numbers provided by the Philadelphia police. </p>
<h2>Who decides when this video is made public?</h2>
<p>The district attorney’s office has the final say regarding any video release while there is an active, potentially criminal investigation. Officer Mark Dial <a href="https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/eddie-irizarry-police-bodycam-charges-philadelphia/3640947/">surrendered to police on Sept. 8</a> and faces <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/philadelphia-officer-shot-eddie-irizarry-car-surrenders-police/story?id=103027894">murder and other charges in the shooting</a>. Earlier, the police commissioner had indicated her <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/crime/eddie-irizarry-shooting-mark-dial-officer-philadelphia-police-20230823.html">intent to fire him for insubordination</a> after a 30-day suspension.</p>
<p>Videos of police encounters with the public are <a href="https://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/LI/consCheck.cfm?txtType=HTM&ttl=42&div=0&chpt=67A">not considered public records</a> at the state level. <a href="https://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/li/uconsCheck.cfm?yr=2017&sessInd=0&act=22">A change in Pennsylvania law passed in 2017</a> prevents the release of these recordings under <a href="https://www.openrecords.pa.gov/RTKL/About.cfm">right-to-know</a> processes. </p>
<p>In deciding to release footage, the Philadelphia police and district attorney <a href="https://www.pccd.pa.gov/criminaljustice/advisory_boards/Documents/BWC%20Policy%20Recommendations%20Commission%20Approved.pdf">try to balance state</a> and <a href="https://www.pccd.pa.gov/criminaljustice/advisory_boards/Documents/BWC%20Policy%20Recommendations%20Commission%20Approved.pdf">federal</a> rules with the wishes of the victim and their family, the need to preserve the integrity of videos as evidence in a criminal trial, ongoing investigations and public safety concerns.</p>
<h2>Can a resident of Philadelphia ask for video to be released?</h2>
<p>Yes, but the process can be slow and is rarely successful. A <a href="https://www.openrecords.pa.gov/RTKL/PoliceRecordings.cfm#:%7E:text=A%20written%20request%20must%20be,%22delivered%22%20by%20certified%20mail">detailed request</a> must be submitted within 60 days of the incident either in person or by certified mail. The requesting party must also pay the costs associated with the request.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/li/uconsCheck.cfm?yr=2017&sessInd=0&act=22">State laws</a> and <a href="https://www.phila.gov/open-records-policy/">local regulations</a> require the law enforcement agency to first decide if a video can be released and provide an explanation for any denial. Decisions can be <a href="https://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/li/uconsCheck.cfm?yr=2017&sessInd=0&act=22">appealed to the Court of Common Pleas</a> – a judicial process that can take quite some additional time.</p>
<p>That is not to say that body camera footage is never released, but it is <a href="https://whyy.org/articles/why-is-it-still-so-hard-to-see-police-bodycam-footage-in-pennsylvania/">exceedingly uncommon across Pennsylvania</a>. The Irizarry video is <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/philadelphia/2023/08/23/philadelphia-police-body-camera-footage">only the second</a> such video released in Philadelphia.</p>
<p>The first video released showed <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8897219/Bodycam-footage-showing-fatal-police-shooting-Walter-Wallace-Jr-released-week.html">the police-shooting death of Walter Wallace Jr.</a> <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8897219/Bodycam-footage-showing-fatal-police-shooting-Walter-Wallace-Jr-released-week.html">in 2020</a>. That video also came out after an intense public outcry. </p>
<h2>Why has the Irizarry case drawn so much attention?</h2>
<p>Initially, the Philadelphia police declined to release the Irizarry footage, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/eddie-irizarry-video-philadelphia-police-officer-shooting-kensington-family-news-conference/">citing the ongoing investigation</a>. And, at first, District Attorney <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/eddie-irizarry-mark-dial-philadelphia-police-shooting-video-released/">Larry Krasner</a> agreed to withhold it.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546757/original/file-20230906-19-w0a39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A gray-haired white man wearing a suit and a blue tie looks into the camera" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546757/original/file-20230906-19-w0a39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546757/original/file-20230906-19-w0a39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546757/original/file-20230906-19-w0a39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546757/original/file-20230906-19-w0a39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546757/original/file-20230906-19-w0a39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546757/original/file-20230906-19-w0a39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546757/original/file-20230906-19-w0a39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=967&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner leaves a TV studio on Aug. 24, 2023, after discussing the release of the body camera footage from the police officer who shot and killed Eddie Irizarry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/district-attorney-of-philadelphia-larry-krasner-is-seen-news-photo/1636123422?adppopup=true">Gilbert Carrasquillo/GC Images via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But a home security system also captured video of the incident, and the homeowner released it to the Irizarry family’s attorney about a week after the shooting. It seems to show Dial <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0xjpvDWlmM">opening fire</a> almost immediately after arriving at the scene. </p>
<p>Shortly after this third-party video came out, and amid increasingly visible protests, Krasner allowed Irizarry’s family to view the official footage and promised to release it to the public. On Sept. 8, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/us/mark-dial-eddie-irizarry-shooting-charges/index.html">Krasner made good</a> on that promise.</p>
<h2>Is Philadelphia’s record for releasing footage unusual?</h2>
<p>The approach in both Philadelphia and Pennsylvania is fairly common. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.policeforum.org/assets/BWCCostBenefit.pdf">2018 survey by the Police Executive Research Forum</a> found that 17% of police departments never release videos. Like Philadelphia, nearly 80% can withhold them if they will be <a href="https://www.policeforum.org/assets/BWCCostBenefit.pdf">used as evidence or in a personnel matter</a>. </p>
<p>Philadelphia’s approach is broadly similar to other large cities, including <a href="https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/about/about-nypd/equipment-tech/body-worn-cameras.page">New York</a> and <a href="https://mpdc.dc.gov/node/1143942">Washington, D.C.</a> Unlike jurisdictions in <a href="https://www.psp.pa.gov/contact/Pages/REQUESTING-AUDIO-AND-VIDEO-RECORDINGS-FROM-THE-PENNSYLVANIA-STATE-POLICE.aspx">Pennsylvania</a>, however, these cities allow for the online submission of requests to view video footage under relevant open records laws, potentially speeding up the process.</p>
<h2>Why don’t all of the city’s police wear body cameras?</h2>
<p>The program is widespread; however, cameras have not yet been issued to the <a href="https://districts.phillypolice.com/districts/15th/">15th district</a>, highway, traffic, airport, narcotics strike force, neighborhood services and SWAT teams, according to the police department. Additionally, cameras are worn only by uniformed officers; undercover officers, for example, are exempt.</p>
<p>One of the biggest limitations to the adoption of body cameras nationwide has been the cost, which includes training, equipment and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/1/24/18196097/police-body-cameras-storage-cost-washington-post">data storage</a>. In Philadelphia, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/02/27/philadelphia-police-body-camera-footage-not-reviewed">the program has cost US$20 million</a> over the past decade, according to Axios. </p>
<p>Despite the large price tag, <a href="https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/BFI_WP_2021-38.pdf">some research suggests</a> that every $1 spent on body-worn cameras results in about $5 of savings by cutting down on complaints, including those that lead to lawsuits from citizens.</p>
<p>Zooming out, the use of body cameras has become commonplace in the U.S., with <a href="https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/research-body-worn-cameras-and-law-enforcement">80% of large police departments adopting their use by 2018</a>. While the associated costs are a significant hurdle, especially for smaller municipalities, <a href="https://bja.ojp.gov/funding/opportunities/o-bja-2023-171562">federal support has increased</a>.</p>
<h2>Advocates hoped body cameras would reduce violence by creating more transparency about police interactions with the public. Have they had that effect?</h2>
<p>A review of all the rigorous, available research on the topic in 2020 found that body-worn cameras were associated with <a href="http://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1112">decreases in the number of citizen complaints</a> and an increase in the quality of criminal investigations. Research findings on the effects on the use of force, arrests and assaults are more mixed, making drawing broad conclusions difficult.</p>
<p>In Philadelphia, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0734016818814895">recent studies suggest</a> that body cameras can reframe the role of police, emphasizing their position as community guardians. Additional, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-019-09383-0">high-quality research suggests</a> that Philadelphia police officers wearing cameras had about 38% less use-of-force incidents and made 39% fewer arrests compared to officers not wearing cameras. Earlier <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2016.1198825">studies in the city</a>, however, found that body cameras had no effect on arrest rates or compliance but did reduce complaints. </p>
<p>It remains an open question whether opening up public access to the video captured by these cameras would increase positive outcomes.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This story was updated to reflect the release of the video and charges brought against Officer Mark Dial.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jordan Hyatt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The public’s right to know often gives way to concerns about privacy, public safety and protecting evidence.Jordan Hyatt, Associate Professor of Criminology and Justice Studies, Drexel UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1949492022-11-28T13:32:59Z2022-11-28T13:32:59ZCelebrities in politics have a leg up, but their advantages can’t top fundraising failures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496841/original/file-20221122-12-7b55od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=159%2C55%2C4462%2C2654&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mehmet Oz speaks on Nov. 8, 2022, shortly before losing his bid for Pennsylvania senator during the midterm elections. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244627627/photo/us-vote-election-pennsylvania-oz.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=lUvOAgR4MaAjyRLRCnPAexyipJWV7qC10aFXa49rJOg=">Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>TV personality <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/09/1131245958/fetterman-dr-oz-pennsylvania-senate-midterm-results">Mehmet Oz lost</a> his bid for Pennsylvania senator during the November midterms. And former NFL football star Herschel Walker appears to be falling further behind his opponent, incumbent Raphael Warnock, as they head to a Dec. 6, 2022, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2022-11-22/warnocks-lead-over-walker-widens-in-new-georgia-runoff-poll">runoff election</a> for senator in Georgia. </p>
<p>While celebrity political candidates have advantages, like name recognition and media attention, they <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781666923162/Celebrities-in-American-Elections-Case-Studies-in-Celebrity-Politics">often lose their bids for public office</a>. </p>
<p>They lose for the same reasons other candidates lose. If they represent the minority party in a one-party-dominated district or state, they lose. If they take unpopular policy positions, they lose. If they are never considered to be serious candidates, they lose.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4cPgCI4AAAAJ&hl=en">political science scholar</a> who specializes in American politics. In my recently published book, “<a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781666923155/Celebrities-in-American-Elections-Case-Studies-in-Celebrity-Politics">Celebrities in American Elections</a>,” I show that celebrity candidates who win the fundraising battle tend to win their elections – and those who fall behind in fundraising tend to lose. </p>
<h2>Political fundraising matters</h2>
<p>Both <a href="https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2022-10-25/in-countrys-most-expensive-senate-race-fetterman-buoyed-by-local-national-support">Oz</a> and <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-10-05/donations-jump-for-georgia-gops-kemp-warnock-stays-strong">Walker</a> lost the fundraising battle against their opponents, Democratic politicians John Fetterman and Raphael Warnock, in the November 2022 midterms. </p>
<p>Not including substantial spending by outside political and advocacy groups, <a href="https://www.fec.gov/">Federal Election Commission</a> data shows that Fetterman raised US$17 million more than Oz and Warnock raised $86 million more than Walker. </p>
<p>The ability to raise money is an indicator of a candidate’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-012-9193-1">strength</a>. It also allows candidates to hire professional staff and pay for advertising to persuade voters.</p>
<p>Candidates, celebrity or not, who raise more money tend to win. </p>
<p>There are many examples that show the specific connection between celebrity candidates raising money during campaigns and getting elected.</p>
<p>Hollywood stars Ronald Reagan, Clint Eastwood and Arnold Schwarzenegger all spent more money than their opponents and got elected. Singer Sonny Bono, meanwhile, spent more than his rival in the mayoral and House races and won in the 1980s and ‘90s. When Bono <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1992/05/31/us/the-1992-campaign-senate-race-sonny-bono-s-political-curse-fame-without-respect.html">spent less</a> than his opponent on his Senate seat bid in 1992, he lost the race.</p>
<p>Other examples show the link between celebrity candidates’ failure to top their opponents in fundraising and their eventual loss.</p>
<p>Hollywood performers Shirley Temple, Gary Coleman, Roseanne Barr, Cynthia Nixon, Kanye West and Caitlyn Jenner all raised less than their opponents and lost their elections. </p>
<p>Self-financed candidates who rely predominantly on their own wealth, like Dr. Oz, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-19/it-was-a-brutal-election-year-for-self-funding-candidates?leadSource=uverify%20wall">tend to lose</a>. Because self-financed candidates tend to be political outsiders, they are less likely to be supported by the political insiders who are major donors. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-012-9193-1">The donor class tends to support stronger, more experienced candidates</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496847/original/file-20221122-25-ghvfns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white woman with a black shirt holds up a white rose, standing at a lectern on a dark night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496847/original/file-20221122-25-ghvfns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496847/original/file-20221122-25-ghvfns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496847/original/file-20221122-25-ghvfns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496847/original/file-20221122-25-ghvfns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496847/original/file-20221122-25-ghvfns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496847/original/file-20221122-25-ghvfns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496847/original/file-20221122-25-ghvfns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Actress Cynthia Nixon, who ran for governor in New York, conceded to Andrew Cuomo at a Brooklyn restaurant in September 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1032968238/photo/cynthia-nixon-holds-primary-night-watch-party-in-brooklyn-with-other-progressive-democrats-on.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=LqPHhIuo4RDU_NytFbpYYueDpkICnui__pY5MtGDhi0=">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Other rules to the game</h2>
<p>There are other trends at play during an election. Some of them include whether a candidate is an incumbent and has name recognition and what their party affiliation is. And while celebrity candidates certainly have many advantages, they are not as popular as <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Star-Power-American-Democracy-in-the-Age-of-the-Celebrity-Candidate/Wright/p/book/9781138603950">some observers would suspect</a>.</p>
<p>Pennsylvania and Georgia have been key swing states in recent election cycles, with both the presidency and control of the Senate linked to their voters’ choices.</p>
<p>Political science consistently shows that it is <a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/congressional-elections/book258015">easier to flip an open seat than it is to defeat an incumbent</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/05/pat-toomey-senate-retirement-426429">Republican Sen. Pat Toomey</a> announced in October 2020 that he would not run again for election in Pennsylvania. That opened the door for Democrats to flip the seat. </p>
<p>Fetterman, a statewide elected official with a <a href="https://www.penncapital-star.com/campaigns-elections/in-pgh-john-fetterman-rallies-the-base-in-u-s-senate-races-closing-hours/">strong base of support</a>, name recognition and a fundraising advantage, secured this open seat on Nov. 8. Democrats were worried about losing the race after Fetterman’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/25/fetterman-struggles-during-tv-debate-with-oz-00063467">poor debate performance</a>, but he nevertheless prevailed. </p>
<p>While Oz had name recognition thanks to his television show, he was successfully defined as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-carpetbagger-label-that-fetterman-stuck-on-oz-may-have-been-key-in-defeating-him-194388">carpetbagger</a> in the state and could not match his opponent’s spending. </p>
<p>In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, has a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/13/georgia-senate-runoff-warnock-walker/">base of support</a>, name recognition and a fundraising advantage. Walker has the name recognition, but he faced questions about his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/20/us/politics/herschel-walker-mental-illness.html">mental fitness</a> and seemed <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/04/politics/herschel-walker-georgia-senate-republican-gamble">inept</a> on the campaign trail. Although the race is undecided, Walker’s inexperience showed and he has been outspent by Warnock thus far. </p>
<p>For Walker to win the runoff, a few things would need to happen. </p>
<p>Walker would need to gain the votes of the Libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver, who thus far <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/georgia-senate-runoff-walker-warnock-libertarian-1234628538/">hasn’t endorsed either Walker or Warnock</a>. Turnout in the runoff election is also critical. <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3746400-huge-age-gap-shows-up-in-aarp-poll-of-warnock-walker-runoff/">Polls indicate</a> that Walker leads among voters 50 and older. Older voters tend to vote at higher rates <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781315663746/voting-young-people-martin-wattenberg">than younger voters</a>, which means Walker has the lead with higher-propensity voters. On the other hand, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/10/1135810302/turnout-among-young-voters-was-the-second-highest-for-a-midterm-in-past-30-years">younger voters seem more energized than in the recent past</a>. Warnock, who has experience with runoff elections, would need to keep young people energized for a few more weeks in order to win. </p>
<p>Finally, in most states, candidates, celebrity or not, can win with a plurality of voters. Indeed, many celebrities who won elected office did so with less than 50% of the vote. </p>
<p>Wrestler Jesse Ventura won with 37% of the vote when he was elected <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Minnesota_gubernatorial_election">governor of Minnesota in 1998</a>. Arnold Schwarzenegger became the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_Schwarzenegger#Governor_of_California">governor of California in 2003</a> with 49% of the vote. Comedian Al Franken got less than 42% of the vote when he was elected Minnesota <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota">senator in 2008</a>. And Donald Trump <a href="https://theintercept.com/2016/11/28/donald-trump-first-sore-loser-elected-president-united-states/">got 46%</a> of the popular vote when he won the presidency in 2016. </p>
<p>The United States’ <a href="https://electionbuddy.com/features/voting-systems/plurality-voting/">plurality rule</a>, which allows a candidate who receives the most number of votes to win, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College">Electoral College systems</a> have allowed celebrities to win elections even when they have less than a majority. This does not suggest overwhelming popularity; rather, their victories are made possible by specific election rules. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496842/original/file-20221122-24-7k8rr1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A middle aged white man with dark hair wears a tuxedo and stands in front of a white backdrop with the letters GQ on it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496842/original/file-20221122-24-7k8rr1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496842/original/file-20221122-24-7k8rr1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496842/original/file-20221122-24-7k8rr1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496842/original/file-20221122-24-7k8rr1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496842/original/file-20221122-24-7k8rr1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496842/original/file-20221122-24-7k8rr1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496842/original/file-20221122-24-7k8rr1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Arnold Schwarzenegger is an example of a celebrity who succeeded in politics and won office in California in 2003.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/872185396/photo/germany-entertainment-gq-men-of-the-year.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=Frf43xqOUTbbs0tQRmJOlB3090U5jlBP7rusXfoN6_w=">John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Future celebrity candidates</h2>
<p>Oz and Walker won’t be the last celebrities to seek public office. Celebrities have the talent and fame to make them viable political candidates. They are at ease in front of cameras and audiences and they are skilled at creating a personal brand that resonates with the public.</p>
<p>They also benefit from copious media coverage. The free media attention gives them an advantage that noncelebrity candidates do not have. </p>
<p>But it’s likely that celebrities who had political experience before running for office would perform better than celebrities who are political neophytes. </p>
<p>Schwarzenegger and Franken offer an example of how it can benefit celebrity candidates to be involved in politics before seeking office. Schwarzenegger, for example, first campaigned for <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2002-oct-22-me-prop4922-story.html">Proposition 49</a>, a law that created after-school educational enrichment programs, before officially diving into politics. </p>
<p>Franken founded the political action committee <a href="https://www.midwestvaluespac.org/">Midwest Values</a> and called upon his celebrity friends to donate so he could fund Democratic candidates who would later serve as his political allies. This allowed Schwarzenegger and Franken to learn valuable political skills before running for office. Even Trump was an active <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/05/2020-presidential-dems-trump-money-1202938">political donor</a> and <a href="https://time.com/5166393/donald-trump-endorses-mitt-romney-twitter/">celebrity endorser</a> before declaring his bid for the presidency. </p>
<p>Oz’s loss and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/warnock-holds-narrow-lead-walker-runoff-aarp-poll-finds-rcna58341">Walker’s current deficit</a> demonstrate that even celebrities must pay their political dues before seeking office.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194949/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard T. Longoria does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Celebrity politicians have instant name recognition. But unless they trump competitors in fundraising, and hit other check boxes, they aren’t any more likely to win than traditional politicians.Richard T. Longoria, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Texas Rio Grande ValleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1834162022-05-18T20:27:49Z2022-05-18T20:27:49ZAppealing to Trump (and his base) might have worked in Pennsylvania primaries – but it won’t play so well in the midterms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464079/original/file-20220518-17-6nn6jw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C54%2C4524%2C2968&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The doctor is in ... with Trump, at least.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022SenatePennsylvania/24762581aa57440d924d43859f4125bb/photo?Query=trump%20oz&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=32&currentItemNo=2">AP Photo/Gene J. Puska</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/17/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-us-senate.html">Pennsylvania primaries</a> of May 17, 2022, proved a good night for Donald Trump, a better one for “Trumpism” and a problem for moderates hoping for a candidate primed to capture the center in the upcoming midterms. </p>
<p>Trump’s officially endorsed Senate candidate, Mehmet Oz, is <a href="https://www.wgal.com/article/automatic-recount-pennsylvania-primary-dave-mccormick-dr-oz/40033116">currently in a tight race</a> with main GOP rival David McCormick – with the balloting set for a recount.</p>
<p>Both ran their primary campaign as Trumpist candidates and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/david-mccormick-donald-trump-endorsement-mehmet-oz/">vied for the former president’s nod</a>. Meanwhile, third place in the GOP race went to Kathy Barnette, a Fox News commentator who touts herself as <a href="https://time.com/6177232/kathy-barnette-pennsylvania-senate-republican-primary/">more MAGA than Trump</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that all three leading GOP candidates had the DNA of Trumpism in them suggests a couple of things. First, it indicates that echoing the policies, rhetorical style and personality of the former president can be an effective tool for Republican candidates seeking to appeal to the party base. And this is especially important in a <a href="https://www.fairvote.org/open_and_closed_primaries">closed-primary state</a> such as Pennsylvania, in which only party members have a say in who gets to run for Senate. </p>
<p>And second, it raises a question about the tried-and-tested plan of candidates’ appealing to the party base in the primary before pivoting closer to the center in the general election: Will that post-primary transformation be possible for Republicans in Pennsylvania – and elsewhere – in 2022?</p>
<h2>All local politics is national</h2>
<p>The Pennsylvania primary proved that the adage that “<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/all-politics-is-local-the-debate-and-the-graphs/">all politics is local</a>” has to some degree been inverted: Local and state elections are now run on national issues and are influenced by national figures.</p>
<p>But whereas a Trump endorsement in the recent Ohio primary <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jd-vance-poll-donald-trump-b2066919.html">resulted in an immediate surge</a> for his anointed candidate, J.D. Vance, Pennsylvania didn’t quite play out the same way.</p>
<p>Oz’s chance of winning was certainly <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/16/trump-oz-pennsylvania-senate-00032900">not harmed by getting Trump’s stamp of approval</a>. But he didn’t seem to take many votes off McCormick or Barnette in the process. In fact, some see Barnette <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/us/elections/kathy-barnette-pennsylvania-senate.html">faring better than expected</a> because Trump supporters decided to vote for her as “the more Trump” candidate, over Oz as the “official” Trump candidate. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Trump’s endorsement actually meant very little for Doug Mastriano, who won the state’s GOP primary for governor. Mastriano – an avidly Trumpian candidate who repeats the former president’s election conspiracy theories – was already <a href="https://www.wgal.com/article/franklin-and-marshall-poll-may-2022-pennsylvania-primary/39914699#">pulling ahead</a> by the time Trump made a late nod of approval in his favor.</p>
<p>The point is, whether these Republican candidates are seen as being faithful to Trump’s signature MAGA cause is what matters when it comes to winning in these primaries.</p>
<p>But here’s the rub for Republicans. That may work well enough in firing up the base during primary season, but it complicates the pivot to running against Democrats – and appealing to more moderate voters – in the midterm election. A candidate like Mastriano will have to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/far-right-election-denier-mastriano-wins-gop-race-governor-pennsylvani-rcna29136">defend positions like</a> a total ban on abortion, reversal of support for mail-in voting and conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. </p>
<p>Pennsylvania is seen as a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/17/seven-states-decide-senate-control-00032881">toss-up state</a> when it comes to the Senate vote. In such circumstances, appealing to the center becomes more important – party faithful tend to be locked in; swing voters are up for grabs.</p>
<p>Any GOP candidate who hitches his or her wagon to Trumpian policies and rhetoric may find it harder to appeal to centrists – and may actually alienate some moderate Republicans.</p>
<h2>Circling back to the center</h2>
<p>A similar dynamic played out in Pennsylvania in the Democratic primary race for Senate, but with success found by positioning policies to the left of the center. One of the more progressive candidates, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/17/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-primary/">prevailed against</a> the moderate Rep. Conor Lamb. </p>
<p>But even so, Fetterman has, I believe, more room to maneuver come the general election. Fetterman has experience running for – and winning – a statewide office before. Moreover, he has carefully cultivated an “everyman” image, which could play well against either Oz or hedge fund CEO McCormick. Even so, he will have to defend more progressive positions that could also turn off moderate Republicans. </p>
<p>Success in the Pennsylvania primaries came to those candidates able to position themselves away from the center and more in line with the party’s ideological extreme. But it is the Republican candidate, in vying against others for Trump’s blessing as well as his base, who might find it more difficult to circle back to the center during the midterms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel J. Mallinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The three leading candidates in the GOP Senate primary race in Pennsylvania all hitched their wagons to Trump. But will that make it harder for the Republican winner to win the center come the fall?Daniel J. Mallinson, Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Administration, School of Public Affairs, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1777972022-05-04T12:34:31Z2022-05-04T12:34:31ZRural superintendents lament: ‘We went from being heroes to villains’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460143/original/file-20220427-22-35hphx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=80%2C35%2C5851%2C3912&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Teachers in Pennsylvania and around the world adapted to handle the pandemic.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakPennsylvaniaSchools/f986c810bbce4b6ca48819c5bcc49f53/photo">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the pandemic first closed schools in March 2020, it was an emergency response that <a href="https://www.edweek.org/technology/the-scramble-to-move-americas-schools-online/2020/03">upended the typical priorities of public education</a>. Schools suddenly needed to distribute laptops and tablets, set up Wi-Fi hot spots, check on families and distribute food previously served in cafeterias – all while continuing to teach children.</p>
<p>Even before the pandemic, rural schools had <a href="https://www.papartnerships.org/report/spending-impact-on-student-performance-a-rural-perspective">less funding, older technology and more limited access to high-speed internet</a> than their suburban and urban counterparts. Districts were <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/the-teacher-shortage-is-real-large-and-growing-and-worse-than-we-thought-the-first-report-in-the-perfect-storm-in-the-teacher-labor-market-series/">already facing teacher shortages</a> and were regularly seeking more bus drivers, custodians and cafeteria workers.</p>
<p>We studied rural schools in Pennsylvania and wanted to find out how they were responding.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=VCt87SkAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">Our</a> research examined how Pennsylvania’s 235 rural school districts supported families and communicated about COVID-19-related closures. We collected data from district offices and surveyed or interviewed superintendents, principals, teachers and parents.</p>
<p>Over the more than two years of dealing with the pandemic, schools increasingly bore the brunt of the frustration local residents had with state or federal guidelines. “We went from being heroes to villains,” one school leader told us. Some of our focus group participants helped us identify four phases of this process.</p>
<p>One participant said, “Phase 1 of the pandemic there were tons of concern about teachers and students’ well being. People cheering us on from everywhere.” Another suggested that Phase 2 was about getting back to school, navigating the new rules of sharing space, and that Phase 3 moved into “Teachers are no good and just do not want to work.” Finally a fourth participant noted that Phase 4 devolved into people saying, “You can’t make my kid wear a mask! I am the parent! Teachers are the devil!”</p>
<h2>Rapid adaptation</h2>
<p>One rural district superintendent told us the initial transition to remote learning was particularly difficult in his school district: “Lack of connectivity affected pockets of the community – lack of cell service and high speed internet. We have teachers who do not have good internet and cell [service]. Teachers and families used internet in their cars at school parking lots, gas stations and at fire houses.” </p>
<p>In addition, with many students qualifying for free and reduced-price meals, schools had to figure out how to distribute the food. Some districts told us they had school bus drivers run their regular routes, but instead of picking up students they were dropping off meals, school supplies and paper-and-pencil learning packets.</p>
<p>Identifying creative alternatives to traditions like prom and graduation – such as drive-by parades and outdoor ceremonies – administrators and teachers told us they took pride in how they adapted.</p>
<p>One superintendent noted, “We figured it out, and I really think by the end of [the 2019-2020 school] year we felt a sense of victory, that we pulled off a lot of things that made kids feel special and assured families that the educators in the community cared and were taking great care to educate the whole child. … We reimagined all of our traditions.”</p>
<p>This period of rapid adaptation and improvisation is what we have characterized as the first phase of education in the pandemic. It yielded a surge of support for schools. As one superintendent told us, “communities definitely grew to have a great deal of appreciation for their local educators.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460138/original/file-20220427-24-nork4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A school bus drives along a road past a green field, with woods in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460138/original/file-20220427-24-nork4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460138/original/file-20220427-24-nork4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460138/original/file-20220427-24-nork4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460138/original/file-20220427-24-nork4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460138/original/file-20220427-24-nork4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460138/original/file-20220427-24-nork4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460138/original/file-20220427-24-nork4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rural students often have long bus rides to and from school.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/yellow-school-bus-drives-along-best-road-next-to-a-field-of-news-photo/1320548478">Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Return to in-person school</h2>
<p>What we’re calling the second phase of pandemic education began in the fall of 2020, with efforts to return to in-person school. That often included <a href="https://www.education.pa.gov/Schools/safeschools/emergencyplanning/COVID-19/ContinuityEducation/Pages/default.aspx">hybrid plans</a>, with half the students in school some days and the other half in school on other days.</p>
<p>What parents wanted from the schools often conflicted with schools’ own efforts to set up useful learning environments.</p>
<p>One rural Pennsylvania school superintendent told us, “Schools are about day care, extracurricular and education comes in third for most people. From the very start of the pandemic and continuing into the second year, the anger was ‘what do I do with my child?’ especially for businesses who had essential workers. Families had no one to do day care.” </p>
<p>As the 2020-2021 school year began, schools were more prepared, but they also had new responsibilities, including determining when to close schools to limit outbreaks, setting up <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/news/pennsylvania/spl/pa-covid-school-testing-program-20220217.html">testing and contact tracing</a>, ensuring clean air circulation in classrooms, and adapting to changing and unclear guidance from health authorities. </p>
<p>Earlier in the pandemic, parents had proved more patient with uncertainty, but shifting mask guidance in particular – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/07/29/school-masks-coronavirus/">often described as recommendations</a>, not requirements – became a flashpoint for parent frustrations. As one superintendent told us, there was “no cover for school districts. We were hung out to get hammered.”</p>
<p>Another superintendent said, “everybody was hoping [the 2020-2021 school] year would have been much, much more routine. [It wasn’t,] and that really deflated people’s attitudes.” </p>
<h2>Community anger</h2>
<p>The second wave of school closings, in early 2022, due to the omicron variant, ignited protests. Superintendents told us that unprecedented conflict over vaccinations and masking disrupted school board meetings. One local administrator said schools faced a “national politicization of local communities.” Another told us, “In small communities, activists have an outsize impact. Guerrilla marketing, boots on the ground, talking about issues in small social groups.” And one administrator outright declared, “Instead of being an educator, I’m becoming a politician.” </p>
<p>Superintendents reported that some parents were simply angry about masks or school closings. But other superintendents interpreted the mask guidance as part of a larger issue of government intrusion into private lives. </p>
<p>Ongoing conflict has taken its toll as rural districts face historic shortages off staff, educators and even administrators. Nearly <a href="https://www.wesa.fm/education/2022-02-03/add-school-superintendents-to-the-list-of-jobs-people-are-leaving-in-pennsylvania-and-nationally">20% of Pennsylvania superintendents left their jobs</a> in 2021 – roughly 5 percentage points higher than in a normal year. As one superintendent said to us, “We’re being blamed for something that we did not create.” </p>
<h2>Return to normal?</h2>
<p>In spring 2022, one rural superintendent stated, “Teachers and parents were ready to have things go back to normal.” But a rural district administrator saw the pandemic as “a wake-up call for our school with our need to make technology available for our students,” saying there appeared to be a deep divide between those who believe that “we need to return completely to the pre-pandemic routines” and those who want to continue to integrate more technology. One district’s executive director told us, “The pandemic has created a divide and disconnect between the school and the community.” </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gerald K. LeTendre receives funding from Center for Rural Pennsylvania. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peggy Schooling receives funding from the Center for Rural Pennsylvania. She is the Executive Director of the Pennslyvnia School Study Council at Penn State University. </span></em></p>A study of rural schools in Pennsylvania found that schools ended up in a clash between local residents and state and federal agencies.Gerald K. LeTendre, Professor of Educational Administration, Penn StatePeggy Schooling, Executive Director of the Pennsylvania School Study Council, Professor of Practice in Educational Leadership, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1788482022-03-09T16:10:31Z2022-03-09T16:10:31ZSupreme Court inches towards deciding whether state legislatures can draw congressional districts largely free of court oversight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450824/original/file-20220308-21-1twpw9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C16%2C5526%2C3684&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Which branch has the power to rewrite congressional maps?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-us-supreme-court-is-seen-in-washington-dc-on-february-8-news-photo/1238293782?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>To what extent can state or federal courts limit how state legislatures draw congressional districts? </p>
<p>It is a substantial question with huge implications for future elections and voting rights in America. But the Supreme Court has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-supreme-court-rebuffs-republicans-electoral-map-disputes-2022-03-07/">decided not to answer it</a> – for now, at least. But on March 7, 2022, justices suggested that the question will be answered sooner rather than later, perhaps even before the 2024 presidential election.</p>
<p>In two orders, the justices <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/us/supreme-court-voting-maps.html">refused requests from Republicans in Pennsylvania and North Carolina</a> to block court-approved congressional maps to replace ones designed by Republican-led legislatures in both states. </p>
<p>The decisions are consistent with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-courts-ruling-on-alabama-voting-map-could-open-the-door-to-a-new-wild-west-of-state-redistricting-176950">court’s February order</a> that halted a court injunction seeking to bar Alabama from using a congressional map that critics say disadvantages Black voters. </p>
<p>That order benefited Alabama Republicans. The ones that came down on March 7 will likely help Democrats in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. But all the orders were based on the same principle: America is too close to the 2022 elections for federal courts to demand legislatures redraw congressional maps to be used in those elections.</p>
<p>Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh said as much in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21a455_5if6.pdf">his written concurrence</a> in the North Carolina case: “It is too late for the federal courts to order that the district lines be changed for the 2022 primary and general elections, just as it was too late for the federal courts to do so in the Alabama redistricting case last month.”</p>
<p>But perhaps of more significance, he, along with the three dissenting justices – Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch – suggested that the question of how closely courts can regulate how state legislatures draw congressional maps was one that would return. </p>
<p>“The issue is almost certain to keep arising until the court definitively resolves it,” wrote Kavanaugh. “We will have to resolve this question sooner or later, and the sooner we do so, the better,” added <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21a455_5if6.pdf">the trio of dissenting justices</a> in the separate opinion.</p>
<h2>Independent state legislature doctrine</h2>
<p>The court is clearly inching toward a showdown over what is known as the “<a href="https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5885&context=flr">independent state legislature doctrine</a>.”</p>
<p>This is a legal theory in vogue largely <a href="https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a39373459/supreme-court-north-carolina-map-samuel-alito/">among conservative circles</a> that holds that state legislatures have an independent right to draw congressional districts free of much court oversight. The theory is based on the Constitution’s grant of authority to state legislatures to determine “the times, places and manner” of holding elections.</p>
<p>The independent state legislature doctrine is controversial, and may be inconsistent with Chief Justice John Roberts’s 2019 opinion in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422">Rucho v Common Cause</a>. In that case, which also centered on a congressional map in North Carolina, Roberts argued that partisan gerrymandering presented political questions that go beyond the reach of federal courts. He suggested states could address the issue through legislation that could then be enforced by courts.</p>
<p>However, a particularly legislature friendly version of the independent state legislature doctrine could limit how courts could curb partisan gerrymandering in congressional elections – and that will be of great concern to voters’ rights advocates.</p>
<p>It now seems only a matter of time before the Supreme Court addresses the theory. Four of the nine justices must agree to hear a case for one to be taken up. The opinions on March 7, 2022, suggest the court has the numbers. </p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=politics&source=inline-politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178848/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henry L. Chambers Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Justices declined GOP requests to block court-approved congressional maps in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. But justices punted a bigger question over the role of courts until after the midterm elections.Henry L. Chambers Jr., Professor of Law, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1700692021-10-27T12:17:43Z2021-10-27T12:17:43ZClimate change is muting fall colors, but it’s just the latest way that humans have altered US forests<p>Fall foliage season is a calendar highlight in states from Maine south to <a href="https://www.tripsavvy.com/fall-foliage-in-the-southeast-1640395">Georgia</a> and west to the <a href="https://www.mycoloradoparks.com/things-to-do/natural-wonders/fall-in-rocky-mountain-park/">Rocky Mountains</a>. It’s especially important in the Northeast, where fall colors attract an <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/r9/news-events/?cid=STELPRD3856001">estimated US$8 billion in tourism revenues</a> to New England every year.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hIHZIMoAAAAJ&hl=en">forestry scientist</a>, I’m often asked how climate change is affecting fall foliage displays. What’s clearest so far is that color changes are occurring later in the season. But climate change isn’t the only factor at work, and in some areas, human decisions about forest management are the biggest influences.</p>
<h2>Longer growing seasons</h2>
<p>Climate change is clearly making the Northeast <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/18/">warmer and wetter</a>. Since 1980, average temperatures in the Northeast have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12663">increased by 0.66 degrees Fahrenheit (0.37 Celsius)</a>, and
average annual precipitation has increased by 3.4 inches (8.6 centimeters) – about 8%. This increase in precipitation fuels tree growth and tends to offset stress on the trees from rising temperatures. In the West, which is becoming both warmer and drier, climate change is having greater physiological effects on trees.</p>
<p>My research in tree physiology and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/dendrochronology">dendrochronology</a> – dating and interpreting past events based on trees’ growth rings – shows that in general, trees in the eastern U.S. have fared quite well in a changing climate. That’s not surprising given the subtle variations in climate across much of the eastern U.S. Temperature often limits trees’ growth in cool and cold regions, so the trees <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpq015">usually benefit from slight warming</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, carbon dioxide – the dominant greenhouse gas warming Earth’s climate – is also the molecule that fuels photosynthesis in plants. As carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere increase, plants carry out more photosynthesis and grow more. </p>
<p>More carbon dioxide is not automatically good for the planet – an idea often referred to as “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/science/climate-change-plants-global-greening.html">global greening</a>.” There are natural limits to how much photosynthesis plants can carry out. Plants need water and nutrients to grow, and supplies of these inputs are limited. And as carbon dioxide concentrations rise, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ask-the-experts-does-rising-co2-benefit-plants1/">plants’ ability to use it decreases</a> – an effect known as carbon dioxide saturation.</p>
<p>For now, however, climate change has extended the growing season for trees in the Northeast by about 10-14 days. In my tree ring research, we routinely see trees <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpp068">putting on much more diameter growth</a> now than in the past. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1452652597639266307"}"></div></p>
<p>This effect is particularly evident in young trees, but we see it in old trees as well. That’s remarkable because old trees’ growth should be slowing down, not speeding up. Scientists in western states have even noted this acceleration in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0903029106">bristlecone pines that are over 4,000 years old</a> – the oldest trees in the world. </p>
<p>Fall colors emerge when the growing season ends and trees stop photosynthesizing. The trees stop producing chlorophyll, the green pigment in their leaves, which absorbs energy from sunlight. This allows carotenoid (orange) and xanthophyll (yellow) pigments in the leaves to emerge. The leaves also produce a third pigment, anthocyanin, which creates red colors. A longer growing season may mean that fall colors emerge later – and it can also make those colors duller.</p>
<h2>A changing mix of trees</h2>
<p>Climate isn’t the only thing that affects fall colors. The types of tree species in a forest are an even bigger factor, and forest composition in the eastern U.S. has changed dramatically over the past century. </p>
<p>Notably, eastern forests today have more species such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12663">red maple, black birch, tulip poplar and blackgum</a> than they did in the early 20th century. These trees are shade-tolerant and typically grow in conditions that are neither extremely wet nor extremely dry. They also produce intense red and yellow displays in the fall.</p>
<p>This shift began in the 1930s, when federal agencies adopted policies that called for <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-fires-demand-a-big-response-how-1910s-big-burn-can-help-us-think-smarter-about-fighting-wildfires-and-living-with-fire-167317">suppressing all wildfires quickly rather than letting some burn</a>. At that time, much of the eastern U.S. was dominated by fire-adapted
oak, pine and hickory. Without fires recurring once or twice a decade, these species <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1311781">fail to regenerate and ultimately decline</a>, allowing more shade-tolerant, fire-sensitive trees like red maple to invade. </p>
<p>There is evidence that some tree species in the eastern U.S. are migrating to the north and west because of warming, increasing precipitation and fire suppression. This trend could affect fall colors as regions gain or lose particular species. In particular, studies indicate that the range of sugar maples – one of the best color-producing trees – is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00111.1">shifting northward into Canada</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4YAIq-Whttg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Intensive logging and forest clearance across the eastern U.S. through the mid-1800s altered forests’ mix of tree species.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Forests under pressure</h2>
<p>So far it’s clear that warming has caused a delay in peak colors for much of the East, ranging from a few days in Pennsylvania to as much as two weeks in New England. It’s not yet known whether this delay is making fall colors less intense or shorter-lasting.</p>
<p>But I’ve observed over the past 35 years that when very warm and wet weather extends into mid- and late October, leaves typically go from green to either dull colors or directly to brown, particularly if there is a sudden frost. This year there are few intense red leaves, which suggests that warmth has interfered with anthocyanin production. Some classic red producers, such as red maple and scarlet oak, are producing yellow leaves.</p>
<p>Other factors could also stress eastern forests. Climate scientists project that global warming will make tropical storms and hurricanes <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">more intense and destructive, with higher rainfall rates</a>. These storms could knock down trees, blow leaves off those left standing and reduce fall coloration.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428357/original/file-20211025-34781-1kg1mof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Green leaves with brown-black spots." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428357/original/file-20211025-34781-1kg1mof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428357/original/file-20211025-34781-1kg1mof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428357/original/file-20211025-34781-1kg1mof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428357/original/file-20211025-34781-1kg1mof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428357/original/file-20211025-34781-1kg1mof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428357/original/file-20211025-34781-1kg1mof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428357/original/file-20211025-34781-1kg1mof.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maple leaves infected with a fungal pathogen that can lead to premature leaf loss.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ag.umass.edu/sites/ag.umass.edu/files/fact-sheets/images/maple-anthracnose_fig3.jpg">UMass Amherst</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scientists also expect climate change to <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/18/">expand the ranges of insects that prey on trees</a>, such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-invasive-emerald-ash-borer-has-destroyed-millions-of-trees-scientists-aim-to-control-it-with-tiny-parasitic-wasps-158403">emerald ash borer</a>. And this year’s very wet fall has also increased problems with leaf-spotting fungi, which are hitting sugar maples particularly hard. </p>
<p>Forests shade the earth and absorb carbon dioxide. I am proud to see an increasing number of foresters getting involved in <a href="https://doi.org/10.5849/jof.16-057">ecological forestry</a>, an approach that focuses on ecosystem services that forests provide, such as storing carbon, filtering water and sheltering wildlife. </p>
<p>Foresters can help to slow climate change by revegetating open land, increasing forests’ biodiversity and using highly adaptable tree species that are long-lived, produce many seeds and migrate over time. Shaping eastern forests to thrive in a changing climate can help preserve their benefits – including fall color displays – well into the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170069/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Abrams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Warm autumn weather has produced dull leaf colors across the eastern US this year, but climate change isn’t the only way that humans have altered trees’ fall displays.Marc Abrams, Professor of Forest Ecology and Physiology, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1629192021-07-28T12:19:46Z2021-07-28T12:19:46ZThe invasive spotted lanternfly is spreading across the eastern US – here’s what you need to know about this voracious pest<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408983/original/file-20210629-22-1av607.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C1427%2C1048&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In seven years, the lanternfly has spread from Berks County, northwest of Philadelphia, to large areas of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and both south and north.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://news.psu.edu/photo/535597/2018/09/10/spotted-lanternfly-tree">Penn State/E. Swackhamer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The spotted lanternfly was first detected in Pennsylvania in 2014 and has since spread to 26 counties in that state and at least six other eastern states. It’s moving into southern New England, Ohio and Indiana. This approximately 1-inch-long species from Asia has attractive polka-dotted front wings but can infest and kill trees and plants. <a href="https://ag.tennessee.edu/EPP/Pages/Dr.FrankHale.aspx">Professor Frank Hale</a> is an entomologist who is tracking this species.</em></p>
<p><strong>How did the spotted lanternfly <a href="https://pest.ceris.purdue.edu/map.php?code=IRANADA&year=2020">get to the U.S.</a>, and how quickly is it spreading?</strong></p>
<p>It is native to India, China and Vietnam and probably arrived in a cut stone shipment in 2012. The first sighting was in 2014 in Berks County, Pennsylvania, on a tree of heaven — a common invasive tree brought to North America <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/united-states/indiana/stories-in-indiana/journey-with-nature--tree-of-heaven/">from China</a> in the late 1700s. </p>
<p>By July 2021 the lanternfly <a href="https://nysipm.cornell.edu/environment/invasive-species-exotic-pests/spotted-lanternfly/spotted-lanternfly-ipm/introduction-native-range-and-current-range-us/">had spread to about half of Pennsylvania</a>, large areas of New Jersey, parts of New York state, Maryland, Delaware and Virginia. It also had been found in western Connecticut, eastern Ohio, and now <a href="https://bygl.osu.edu/index.php/node/1832">Indiana</a>. To give an idea of how fast these lanternflies spread, they were introduced <a href="https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-199871/v1">into South Korea in 2004</a> and spread throughout that entire country – which is approximately the size of Pennsylvania – in only three years. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411722/original/file-20210716-19-shurte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411722/original/file-20210716-19-shurte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411722/original/file-20210716-19-shurte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411722/original/file-20210716-19-shurte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411722/original/file-20210716-19-shurte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411722/original/file-20210716-19-shurte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411722/original/file-20210716-19-shurte.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In only seven years, the spotted lanternfly has infested large areas of the Middle Atlantic and has begun to push into Connecticut.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nysipm.cornell.edu/sites/nysipm.cornell.edu/files/shared/images/SLF-reported-distribution-7-1-21.pdf">New York State Integrated Pest Management Program</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>How do they spread so fast?</strong></p>
<p>The lanternflies lay egg masses in late summer and autumn on the trunks of trees and any smooth-surfaced item sitting outdoors. The egg masses, which resemble smears of dry mud, can also be laid on the smooth surfaces of cars, trucks and trains. Then, they can be <a href="https://extension.psu.edu/spotted-lanternfly-frequently-asked-questions">unintentionally transported</a> to any part of the country in just a few days. Once the eggs hatch, they crawl to nearby host plants to start a new infestation.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408981/original/file-20210629-20-hime2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=366%2C638%2C4099%2C2490&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408981/original/file-20210629-20-hime2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408981/original/file-20210629-20-hime2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408981/original/file-20210629-20-hime2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408981/original/file-20210629-20-hime2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408981/original/file-20210629-20-hime2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408981/original/file-20210629-20-hime2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An adult spotted lanternfly crawls along a branch in Pennsylvania. The red, white, and black nymph below will molt into an adult.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/30776344918/in/album-72157697839962692/">Stephen Ausmus/USDA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>How do they damage trees and plants? What do they feed on?</strong></p>
<p>They feed by piercing the bark of trees and vines to tap into the plant’s vascular system to feast on sap. For a sucking insect, lanternflies are relatively big. They remove large amounts of sap and excrete copious amounts of clear, sticky “honeydew” that can coat the tree and anything beneath. A black sooty mold grows wherever the honeydew has been deposited. While unsightly, sooty mold isn’t harmful when growing on the bark of the tree or beneath it. Lanternfly feeding seriously stresses trees and vines, which <a href="https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/nph.13955">lose carbohydrates</a> and other nutrients meant for storage in the roots and eventually for new growth. Infested trees and vines grow more slowly, exhibit dieback – begin to die from the branch tips – and can even die. </p>
<p><strong>How are scientists and officials trying to stop their spread?</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://nysipm.cornell.edu/environment/invasive-species-exotic-pests/spotted-lanternfly/spotted-lanternfly-ipm/management-predators-and-parasitoids/">Biological control</a> shows some promise for the future. Two naturally occurring fungal pathogens of spotted lanternflies have been identified in the U.S. Also, U.S. labs are testing two parasitoid insects – insects that grow by feeding on lanternflies and killing them in the process – that have been brought from China for testing and possible future release.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1410658738638180353"}"></div></p>
<p><strong>How worried should people be about this lanternfly?</strong></p>
<p>Very worried. Lanternflies easily build to high numbers. The area where host trees live is relatively wide, and lanternflies damage crops, the forest and the landscape. They damage many plants and <a href="https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/resources/pests-diseases/hungry-pests/the-threat/spotted-lanternfly/spotted-lanternfly">cause a major nuisance to the general public</a>. The heavy flow of honeydew and the resulting sooty mold makes a mess of the landscape. The adults start to aggregate on plants and structures to lay their egg masses in September. Their sudden, mass appearance can be alarming to people the way periodical cicada populations shock people when they come out of the ground. But lanternflies are more shocking because the few predators that could feed on them, like wheel bugs and predatory stink bugs, do not seem to control the infestations. That is why the introduction of parasitoids from Asia are important for achieving some meaningful level of biological control.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/R4aexJaQYS8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Spotted lanternflies invade sidewalks and buildings in Philadelphia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lanternflies can be a serious <a href="https://extension.psu.edu/spotted-lanternfly-management-in-vineyards">pest of grapes</a>, and where found, they have reduced grape yields and damaged or killed vines. Multiple applications of insecticides are often needed to kill them, but this increases the cost of crop production. The pest threatens the major wine-producing regions in the East, such as the Finger Lakes and Long Island in New York; parts of Virginia; and Newport, Rhode Island.</p>
<p><strong>Have any other pests similarly damaged trees?</strong></p>
<p>Yes, the emerald ash borer, which arrived in the U.S. from China <a href="http://www.emeraldashborer.info/timeline.php">by accident and was discovered in 2002</a>. It has killed millions of ash trees in North America. The Asian longhorned beetle, which feeds on and kills many species of trees, has turned up in multiple locations, most recently near Charleston, South Carolina. Maple, buckeye, horse chestnut, willow and elm would be threatened if <a href="https://www.uvm.edu/albeetle/hosts.htm">this pest ever got widely established</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://bugwoodcloud.org/resource/files/18559.pdf">box tree moth</a> damages boxwoods and is known to live in Canada. It has been seen in Connecticut, Michigan and South Carolina. It possibly was spread accidentally into the U.S. in shipments of boxwoods from Canada. It is not known to be established in any state, but a federal government order has <a href="https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom/stakeholder-info/sa_by_date/sa-2021/sa-05/box-tree-moth">halted importing host plants</a> like boxwood, euonymus and holly from Canada.</p>
<p><strong>What should I do if I see one?</strong> </p>
<p>If it has already infested the region where you live and you find spotted lanternflies on your property, contact your local county extension office for control recommendations. </p>
<p>But if it has not been found in your county or state, report it to your state department of agriculture. If the infestation is caught early before it can become established in your area, hopefully it can be eradicated there. Eventually, it will spread to many parts of the country. We can slow the spread by identifying and eradicating new infestations wherever they arise.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162919/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank A. Hale as a representative for the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture (UTIA) receives funding from USDA APHIS PPQ. In 2020, UTIA received funding to survey for spotted lanternfly and other pests and diseases of grapes at Tennessee vineyards. I was a PI on that cooperative agreement. I have been the state survey coordinator for the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey (CAPS) in Tennessee since 2014 as a representative of UTIA. CAPS allows our state to survey for invasive pests and diseases. </span></em></p>The spotted lanternfly, native to Asia, is spreading fast since arriving in the United States seven years ago. An entomologist explains why this is a big problem.Frank A. Hale, Professor, Horticultural Crop Entomology, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1525862021-02-03T13:24:43Z2021-02-03T13:24:43ZLiving with natural gas pipelines: Appalachian landowners describe fear, anxiety and loss<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380512/original/file-20210125-19-mykhz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C4595%2C2900&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pipeline construction cuts through forests and farms in Appalachia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Provided by Erin Brock Carlson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/state-gas-pipelines.aspx">2 million miles of natural gas pipelines</a> run throughout the United States. In Appalachia, they spread like spaghetti across the region.</p>
<p>Many of these lines were built in just the past five years to carry natural gas from the Marcellus Shale region of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, where hydraulic fracturing has boomed. West Virginia alone has seen a <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/na1160_swv_2a.htm">fourfold increase</a> in natural gas production in the past decade.</p>
<p>Such fast growth has also brought hundreds of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pipelines-etp-violations-insight/two-u-s-pipelines-rack-up-violations-threaten-industry-growth-idUSKCN1NX1E3">safety</a> and <a href="https://roanoke.com/business/environmental-regulators-seek-more-fines-against-mountain-valley-pipeline/article_31c30aa8-37d8-559a-8009-274ea19e00ae.html">environmental</a> violations, particularly under the Trump administration’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/climate-environment/trump-climate-environment-protections/">reduced oversight</a> and streamlined approvals for pipeline projects. While energy companies promise <a href="https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1322&context=bureau_be">economic benefits</a> for depressed regions, pipeline projects are upending the lives of people in their paths. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://english.wvu.edu/faculty-and-staff/faculty-directory/erin-brock-carlson">technical and professional communication scholar</a> focused on how rural communities deal with complex problems and a <a href="https://portal.research.lu.se/portal/en/persons/martina-angela-caretta(5bef3fe2-55eb-4cc8-9326-977f0fabb526).html">geography scholar</a> specializing in human-environment interactions, we teamed up to study the effects of pipeline development in rural Appalachia. In 2020, we surveyed and talked with dozens of people living close to pipelines in West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania.</p>
<p>What we found illuminates the stress and uncertainty that communities experience when natural gas pipelines change their landscape. Residents live with the fear of disasters, the noise of construction and the anxiety of having no control over their own land.</p>
<h2>‘None of this is fair’</h2>
<p>Appalachians are no strangers to environmental risk. The region has a long and complicated history with extractive industries, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.04.005">coal</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010147">hydraulic fracturing</a>. However, it’s rare to hear firsthand accounts of the long-term effects of industrial infrastructure development in rural communities, especially when it comes to pipelines, since they are the result of more recent energy-sector growth. </p>
<p>For all of the people we talked to, the process of pipeline development was drawn out and often confusing. </p>
<p>Some reported never hearing about a planned pipeline until a “land man” – a gas company representative – knocked on their door offering to buy a slice of their property; others said that they found out through newspaper articles or posts on social media. Every person we spoke with agreed that the burden ultimately fell on them to find out what was happening in their communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380541/original/file-20210125-21-42d9sr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map shows U.S. pipelines carrying natural gas and hazardous liquids in 2018. More construction has been underway since then.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-19-48">GAO and U.S. Department of Transportation</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One woman in West Virginia said that after finding out about plans for a pipeline feeding a petrochemical complex several miles from her home, she started doing her own research. “I thought to myself, how did this happen? We didn’t know anything about it,” she said. “It’s not fair. None of this is fair. … We are stuck with a polluting company.”</p>
<h2>‘Lawyers ate us up’</h2>
<p>If residents do not want pipelines on their land, they can pursue legal action against the energy company rather than taking a settlement. However, this can result in the use of eminent domain.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/eminent_domain">Eminent domain</a> is a right given by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to companies to access privately held property if the project is considered important for public need. <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-5/just-compensation">Compensation</a> is decided by the courts, based on assessed land value, not taking into consideration the intangibles tied to the loss of the land surrounding one’s home, such as loss of future income.</p>
<p>Through this process, residents can be forced to accept a sum that doesn’t take into consideration all effects of pipeline construction on their land, such as the damage heavy equipment will do to surrounding land and access roads.</p>
<p>One man we spoke with has lived on his family’s land for decades. In 2018, a company representative approached him for permission to install a new pipeline parallel to one that had been in place since 1962, far away from his house. However, crews ran into problems with the steep terrain and wanted to install it much closer to his home. Unhappy with the new placement, and seeing erosion from pipeline construction on the ridge behind his house causing washouts, he hired a lawyer. After several months of back and forth with the company, he said, “They gave me a choice: Either sign the contract or do the eminent domain. And my lawyer advised me that I didn’t want to do eminent domain.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pipeline construction on a farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380536/original/file-20210125-15-13nu0ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pipeline construction cuts through a farmer’s field.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Provided by Erin Brock Carlson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There was a unanimous sense among the 31 people we interviewed that companies have seemingly endless financial and legal resources, making court battles virtually unwinnable. Nondisclosure agreements <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010147">can effectively silence</a> landowners. Furthermore, lawyers licensed to work in West Virginia who aren’t already working for gas companies can be difficult to find, and legal fees can become too much for residents to pay.</p>
<p>One woman, the primary caretaker of land her family has farmed for 80 years, found herself facing significant legal fees after a dispute with a gas company. “We were the first and last ones to fight them, and then people saw what was going to happen to them, and they just didn’t have – it cost us money to get lawyers. Lawyers ate us up,” she said. </p>
<p>The pipeline now runs through what were once hayfields. “We haven’t had any income off that hay since they took it out in 2016,” she said. “It’s nothing but a weed patch.”</p>
<h2>‘I mean, who do you call?’</h2>
<p>Twenty-six of the 45 survey respondents reported that they felt that their property value had decreased as a result of pipeline construction, citing the risks of water contamination, explosion and unusable land.</p>
<p>Many of the 31 people we interviewed were worried about the same sort of long-term concerns, as well as gas leaks and air pollution. Hydraulic fracturing and other natural gas processes can <a href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/hfstudy/recordisplay.cfm?deid=332990">affect drinking water resources</a>, especially if there are spills or improper storage procedures. Additionally, methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/controlling-air-pollution-oil-and-natural-gas-industry/basic-information-about-oil-and-natural-gas">volatile organic compounds</a>, which can pose health risks, are byproducts of the <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42986.pdf">natural gas supply chain</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman walks through an oil spill near tanks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381237/original/file-20210128-17-1vjmmwt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil spills are a major concern among land owners.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Provided by Erin Brock Carlson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Forty years removed from this, are they going to be able to keep track and keep up with infrastructure? I mean, I can smell gas as I sit here now,” one man told us. His family had watched the natural gas industry move into their part of West Virginia in the mid-2010s. In addition to a 36-inch pipe on his property, there are several smaller wells and lines. “This year the company servicing the smaller lines has had nine leaks … that’s what really concerns me,” he said.</p>
<p>The top concern mentioned by survey respondents was <a href="https://pstrust.org/about-pipelines/state-by-state-incident-maps/">explosions</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.fractracker.org/2018/12/pipeline-incidents-impact-residents/">According to data from 2010 to 2018</a>, a pipeline explosion occurred, on average, every 11 days in the U.S. While major pipeline explosions are relatively rare, when they do occur, they can be devastating. In 2012, a 20-inch transmission line exploded in Sissonville, West Virginia, damaging five homes and leaving four lanes of Interstate 77 looking “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/12/11/west-virginia-gas-explosion/1761757/">like a tar pit.”</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Flames on the interstate highway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381397/original/file-20210129-19-vva6cu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A gas line explosion near Sissonville, West Virginia, sent flames across Interstate 77.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GasLineExplosion/b1a50e758f164daeb5c40364aeb93037/photo">AP Photo/Joe Long</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Amplifying these fears is the lack of consistent communication from corporations to residents living along pipelines. Approximately half the people we interviewed reported that they did not have a company contact to call directly in case of a pipeline emergency, such as a spill, leak or explosion. “I mean, who do you call?” one woman asked.</p>
<h2>‘We just keep doing the same thing’</h2>
<p>Several people interviewed described a fatalistic attitude toward energy development in their communities.</p>
<p>Energy analysts <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-natural-gas-outlook/u-s-shale-firms-amp-up-natural-gas-output-as-futures-signal-more-gains-idUSKBN28A0GN">expect gas production to increase</a> this year after a slowdown in 2020. Pipeline companies <a href="https://www.hartenergy.com/news/proposed-rules-cloud-startup-mountain-valley-natural-gas-pipeline-191676">expect to keep building</a>. And while the Biden administration is <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/executive-order-protecting-public-health-and-environment-and-restoring-science-to-tackle-climate-crisis/">likely to restore some regulations</a>, the president has said he <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WT6zHIXUsPs">would not</a> <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whats-next-fracking-under-biden">ban fracking</a>. </p>
<p>“It’s just kind of sad because they think, once again, this will be West Virginia’s salvation,” one landowner said. “Harvesting the timber was, then digging the coal was our salvation. … And then here’s the third one. We just keep doing the same thing.”</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Carlson has received funding this project from the West Virginia University Humanities Center. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Caretta has received funding for this project from the Heinz Foundation and the West Virginia University Humanities Center. </span></em></p>Pipeline companies have run roughshod over several regions where they’re building, racking up safety and environmental violations. Many residents feel trapped, with no control over their property.Erin Brock Carlson, Assistant Professor of Professional Writing and Editing, West Virginia UniversityMartina Angela Caretta, Senior Lecturer in Human Geography, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1499032020-11-12T11:32:47Z2020-11-12T11:32:47ZWhat’s behind Trump’s refusal to concede? For Republicans, the end game is Georgia and control of the Senate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368960/original/file-20201112-15-1umy5d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=315%2C8%2C2117%2C1937&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">BRANDEN CAMP/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world may have expected the chaos and uncertainty of the US presidential election to end when <a href="https://theconversation.com/joe-biden-wins-the-election-and-now-has-to-fight-the-one-thing-americans-agree-on-the-nations-deep-division-148106">Joe Biden was declared the winner</a> last weekend. But these are not normal times and Donald Trump is not a conventional president.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/08/932638351/the-tradition-of-a-candidate-concession-is-far-more-than-mere-courtesy">Concessions</a> that used to be a part of the political process have been replaced by <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?477710-1/president-trump-remarks-election-status">baseless allegations of voter fraud and election stealing</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325194709443080192?s=20">loud, all-caps shouting on Twitter</a> and plans for a “<a href="https://www.washingtonian.com/2020/11/11/million-maga-march-organizers-still-dont-have-a-permit/">Million MAGA March</a>” on Washington.</p>
<p>The courts are the proper venue for candidates to challenge the results of elections. But a legal process requires evidence of illegality — and as of yet, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-election-irregularities-claims/2020/11/08/8f704e6c-2141-11eb-ba21-f2f001f0554b_story.html">Trump campaign has produced very little</a>. </p>
<p>So, then, how long can Trump string things out — and, more importantly, what’s the end game? </p>
<h2>More lawsuits are filed, with little chance of success</h2>
<p>Lawsuits can be filed for a number of reasons after an election: violations of state law by local election officials, discrimination against voters, political manipulation of the outcome or irregularities in the ballot counting process. </p>
<p>The Trump campaign has filed numerous <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-election-irregularities-claims/2020/11/08/8f704e6c-2141-11eb-ba21-f2f001f0554b_story.html">lawsuits</a> in both state and federal courts. Some challenges in <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-judge-dismisses-trump-campaign-case-in-chatham-ballot-dispute/YKBA6IYQKBB4JCSQEIJBQQT6QI/">Georgia</a> and <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/05/trump-michigan-lawsuit-ballot-counting-case-dismissed/6173871002/">Michigan</a> were quickly dismissed. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/has-donald-trump-had-his-joe-mccarthy-moment-149667">Has Donald Trump had his Joe McCarthy moment?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In one case filed in Pennsylvania, Republicans sought to stop the vote count in Philadelphia on the grounds Trump campaign officials were not allowed to be close enough to the ballot-counting process. </p>
<p>Under questioning from the judge, the Trump campaign lawyers were forced to admit a “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/11/trump-lawyers-suffer-embarrassing-rebukes-judges-over-voter-fraud-claims/">non-zero number</a>” of Republican observers were present. The judge, clearly exasperated, responded by asking, “I’m sorry, then what’s your problem?”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369017/original/file-20201112-13-38hfdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369017/original/file-20201112-13-38hfdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369017/original/file-20201112-13-38hfdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369017/original/file-20201112-13-38hfdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369017/original/file-20201112-13-38hfdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369017/original/file-20201112-13-38hfdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369017/original/file-20201112-13-38hfdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump supporters demonstrate near the Pennsylvania state Capitol last weekend.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julio Cortez/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In <a href="https://cdn.donaldjtrump.com/public-files/press_assets/2020-11-09-complaint-as-filed.pdf">another filing</a> before a federal court in Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign alleges voting by mail runs afoul of the Constitution’s equal protection clause, a claim <a href="http://theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/trump-needs-three-consecutive-hail-mary-passes/617063/">bound to fail</a>.</p>
<p>The most interesting - and perhaps most viable - case concerns whether a state court can extend the time limit for mail-in ballots to arrive. </p>
<p>In this case, the Trump campaign <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/07/us/politics/the-supreme-court-hands-trump-a-small-victory-in-pennsylvanias-vote-count.html">challenged</a> a decision by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to allow mail-in votes received up to three days after election day to be counted.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-votes-are-counted-in-pennsylvania-changing-numbers-are-a-sign-of-transparency-not-fraud-during-an-ongoing-process-149685">How votes are counted in Pennsylvania: Changing numbers are a sign of transparency, not fraud, during an ongoing process</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The US Supreme Court <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/us/supreme-court-pennsylvania-voting.html">twice declined</a> to halt the counting of these votes, but did order the ballots to be segregated, leaving <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-542_i3dj.pdf">the door open to a challenge after the election</a>. </p>
<p>A group of Republican attorneys-general <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/gop-states-back-trump-election-challenge-435437">filed a brief</a> at the US Supreme Court this week urging it to take up the case.</p>
<p>Amy Coney Barrett, the newly appointed Supreme Court justice, did not participate in the earlier decisions, and it remains to be seen if her vote would change the outcome should the case reach the court. </p>
<p>Hoever, this may all be a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/05/pennsylvania-mail-ballots-arriving-3-day-window-not-make-break/6179946002/">moot</a> point, as there are likely not enough late-arriving ballots for Trump to make up the sizeable gap to Biden in the state. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368963/original/file-20201112-18-11olfzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368963/original/file-20201112-18-11olfzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368963/original/file-20201112-18-11olfzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368963/original/file-20201112-18-11olfzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368963/original/file-20201112-18-11olfzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368963/original/file-20201112-18-11olfzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368963/original/file-20201112-18-11olfzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even with a conservative majority, the US Supreme Court is unlikely to play a role in the election outcome.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Semansky/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Attorney-general steps into the fray</h2>
<p>Attorney-General William Barr has also inserted the Department of Justice into the post-election drama, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-elections-voting-fraud-and-irregularities-4eeb9e0c97301a23ae8d05b54c3144fd">authorising investigations by US attorneys</a> into alleged voter fraud across the country. The move outraged the top official in charge of voter fraud investigations, prompting him to <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-2020-election-results/2020/11/10/933395215/head-of-doj-s-election-crimes-unit-steps-down-after-barr-oks-election-inquiries">resign</a>. </p>
<p>The Department of Justice has historically stayed out of elections, a policy Barr criticised in his <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/barr-memo-elections-fraud/9bf5cac375012c4c/full.pdf">memo</a>, saying</p>
<blockquote>
<p>such a passive and delayed enforcement approach can result in situations in which election misconduct cannot realistically be rectified.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The department’s about-face is important for several reasons. It changes <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/11/david-iglesias-barr-dangerous-voter-fraud-investigation/">long-standing practice</a>, as Barr himself admits. The general practice, he wrote, had been to counsel that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>overt investigative steps ordinarily should not be taken until the election in question has been concluded, its results certified, and all recounts and election contests concluded. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Of course, Barr has ingratiated himself with Trump before, most notably in his <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5638848-June-2018-Barr-Memo-to-DOJ-Muellers-Obstruction.html">2018 memo</a> to the Justice Department expressing concerns over the Mueller investigation. </p>
<p>Many had wondered why Barr had remained unusually quiet for so long on the election. It appears he is back, and willing to support Trump and the Republican cause. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1326140014766460930"}"></div></p>
<h2>The end game: Georgia and the US Senate</h2>
<p>Given Trump and Republicans have very little chance of overturning the result through these tactics, the question remains: what is the goal?</p>
<p>Yes, this all could be explained simply as Trump <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/03/trump-visits-campaign-headquarters-433953">not liking to lose</a>. But setting such <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-aides-fret-about-damage-refusal-accept-loss-n1247173">indulgences</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/10/whats-downside-humoring-him-gop-officials-unintentionally-revealing-quote-about-trump-era/">aside</a>, the reason for this obstruction appears to be two upcoming US Senate runoff elections scheduled for January 5. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368957/original/file-20201112-15-1q3wtgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368957/original/file-20201112-15-1q3wtgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368957/original/file-20201112-15-1q3wtgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368957/original/file-20201112-15-1q3wtgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368957/original/file-20201112-15-1q3wtgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368957/original/file-20201112-15-1q3wtgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368957/original/file-20201112-15-1q3wtgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Georgia state Rep. Vernon Jones speaks at a Trump rally in Atlanta this week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mike Stewart/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Under <a href="https://codes.findlaw.com/ga/title-21-elections/ga-code-sect-21-2-501.html">Georgia law</a>, a runoff is required between the two candidates that came out on top if neither wins 50% of the vote in the state election. </p>
<p>The Republicans currently hold a 50-to-48-seat edge in the Senate, meaning control of the chamber now comes down to who wins the two Georgia runoffs.</p>
<p>The positions taken by Republican senators in recent days are <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-perdue-ossoff-leoffler-warnock-january/">telling</a> — they have stood firmly behind Trump’s challenges and gone out of their way not to congratulate Biden on his victory. Republican Senator John Thune of South Dakota <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/11/us/joe-biden-trump#how-georgias-looming-runoffs-have-altered-the-political-calculations-in-washington">put it bluntly</a>, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We need [Trump’s] voters […] we want him helping in Georgia. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Senate plays a crucial role for the Biden presidency. If it remains in Republican hands, this could leave Biden with few avenues to implement his favoured policies on the <a href="https://joebiden.com/joes-vision/">economy, climate change or health care</a> and would deny Democrats the ability to <a href="https://www.voanews.com/usa/all-about-america/if-democrats-can-should-they-pack-us-supreme-court">expand the Supreme Court</a>. </p>
<p>Already, it’s clear the focus of the GOP is shifting toward Georgia. The two Republican Senate candidates this week <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/09/politics/georgia-2020-election-kelly-loeffler-david-perdue-brad-raffensperger/index.html">called for the resignation</a> of the secretary of state, a fellow Republican, repeating Trump’s baseless claims over voter fraud in Georgia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/winning-the-presidency-wont-be-enough-biden-needs-the-senate-too-145034">Winning the presidency won't be enough: Biden needs the Senate too</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-the-orchestrated-push-to-discredit-georgias-election-sparks-more-gop-infighting/XOMUV6AGINBZDFVHKKCNY2RYGM/">Atlanta Journal-Constitution</a>, this was done to appease Trump</p>
<blockquote>
<p>lest he tweet a negative word about them and risk divorcing them from his base ahead of the consequential runoff. </p>
</blockquote>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1326318755199258626"}"></div></p>
<h2>Is democracy at stake?</h2>
<p>It appears all these efforts are aimed at one goal: <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/10/trump-georgia-senate-runoff-435786">energising the Trumpian base</a> for the Georgia run-off elections by <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/republicans-free-fair-elections-435488">delegitimising</a> not only Biden, but the <a href="https://thebulwark.com/be-alarmed/">election process</a> itself. </p>
<p>The long-term implications are momentous. The US is already bitterly divided, as demonstrated by the large voter turnout on both sides in the election. This division will only deepen the more Trump presses his claims and signals he <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-11/donald-trump-attacks-fox-news-supports-one-america-network/11866402">won’t go away silently</a>.</p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/in-changing-u-s-electorate-race-and-education-remain-stark-dividing-lines/">continued fracturing</a> of the US would prevent Biden from achieving one of the main goals he set out in his <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?477916-1/president-elect-joe-biden-vice-president-elect-kamala-harris-address-nation">victory speech</a>: bringing Republicans and Democrats together. </p>
<p>If half the country buys into his claims of a stolen election, the real danger is the erosion of democracy in the US as we know it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Markus Wagner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Yes, Trump doesn’t like to lose. But his obstruction of the presidential election result has another goal: galvanising his base for the Senate runoff elections in Georgia in January.Markus Wagner, Associate Professor of Law, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1488912020-11-09T19:23:51Z2020-11-09T19:23:51ZBiden’s stance against fossil fuels didn’t turn away voters in Pennsylvania and other key states<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368364/original/file-20201109-14-xd8ui3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C209%2C4929%2C2588&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People wave to presidential candidate Joe Biden's bus as it passes through Latrobe, Pa. Biden received only 35 per cent of the votes in Westmoreland County.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United States’ election results have been a nail-biter that many polls did not predict. After days of uncertainty, the votes have tipped in favour of Joe Biden, and the U.S. president-elect has since <a href="https://joebiden.com/joes-vision/">kicked off his transition team to tackle, among other things, climate change</a>.</p>
<p>During campaigning, Pennsylvania received a lot of attention from both presidential candidates. The state sits atop the Marcellus shale, a major source of natural gas; it is the second-largest producer of natural gas in the U.S., after Texas. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/business/energy-environment/pennsylvania-shale-gas-fracking.html">industry employs about 32,000 people in Pennsylvania</a>, but <a href="https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2020/08/20/report-clean-energy-jobs-among-fastest-growing-in-state-from-2017-2019/">clean energy is among the fastest growing sectors in the state</a>.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-10-23/bidens-aggressive-climate-policy-backlash">speculated</a> that Biden’s stance on fossil fuel divestment, especially his comments during the final presidential debate on moving away from fossil fuels, might have turned away voters worried about their job security in these key states. Yet, the election results have shown the opposite. </p>
<h2>Biden’s climate platform is not radical</h2>
<p>During the final presidential debate, Biden argued that he would “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/23/debate-transcript-trump-biden-final-presidential-debate-nashville/3740152001/">transition [away] from the oil industry … because it has to be replaced by renewable energy over time</a>.” The principal policy he proposed was to stop federal subsidies to the oil and gas industry. After the debate, Biden’s team clarified that his proposal means a <a href="https://www.newschannel5.com/news/biden-clarifies-debate-answer-on-fossil-fuels">gradual phase-out</a> of fossil fuels and he would not impose bans on the oil and gas industry.</p>
<p>In short, Biden has been strategically ambiguous about the timeline of decarbonizing the U.S. economy. He supports the idea of achieving net-zero emissions in the U.S. by 2050, yet serious questions remain whether his budget-saving and market-oriented approach to fighting climate change would effectively discourage a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/heed-lessons-of-2008-crisis-experts-warn-global-leaders">carbon rebound</a> after the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368360/original/file-20201109-15-1705sdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=207%2C138%2C4034%2C2789&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a shale gas drilling site in St. Mary's, Pa." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368360/original/file-20201109-15-1705sdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=207%2C138%2C4034%2C2789&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368360/original/file-20201109-15-1705sdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368360/original/file-20201109-15-1705sdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368360/original/file-20201109-15-1705sdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368360/original/file-20201109-15-1705sdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368360/original/file-20201109-15-1705sdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368360/original/file-20201109-15-1705sdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump intensified attacks on Joe Biden over fracking, hoping to drive a wedge between the former vice-president and the white, working-class voters tied to the state’s booming natural gas industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In June, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, issued a stern warning that “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/18/world-has-six-months-to-avert-climate-crisis-says-energy-expert">the world only has six months to avert climate crisis</a>” — a post-lockdown rebound in global greenhouse gas emissions would substantially derail the global targets set by the Paris climate agreement signed in 2016. (The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/climate/paris-agreement-us-election.html">U.S. officially left the agreement</a> on Nov. 5, but has Biden promised that <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-says-the-us-will-rejoin-the-paris-climate-agreement-in-77-days-then-australia-will-really-feel-the-heat-149533">it will rejoin</a>.) In light of such policy recommendations, Biden’s reliance on market mechanisms to slowly phase-out fossil fuels presents, at best, a moderate approach to decarbonization. </p>
<p>Biden’s stance on fracking further reveals his hesitance to take radical measures on the U.S. fossil fuel addiction. During the final presidential debate, Biden repeatedly emphasized that he did not oppose fracking and would prefer to explore technical solutions to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas industry. </p>
<p>There are few readily available solutions for reducing the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ese3.35">methane pollution associated with the fracking process</a>. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas — <a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-other-important-greenhouse-gas">84 times more powerful than carbon dioxide in the first two decades after its release</a>. Averting a looming climate catastrophe demands an immediate ban on fracking. </p>
<h2>Fossil fuel divestment and voter preferences</h2>
<p>Biden is by no means an environmental radical, but the GOP’s portrayal of his support for fossil fuel divestment had the potential to damage his election performance in Texas and Pennsylvania. </p>
<p>Previous research has addressed the <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780190498986.001.0001/acref-9780190498986-e-566?rskey=7AcDzE&result=1">pros and cons</a> of fossil fuel divestment as a climate action tactic, the strong support it receives within <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2016.1256382">higher education</a> and its implications for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.06.014">climate justice</a>. But there is no in-depth information available on undecided and conservative voters’ perceptions on fossil fuel divestment. </p>
<p>Prior to this election, climate change was a peripheral concern during presidential campaigns and debates. <em>Scientific American</em> highlighted that <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-receives-unexpected-attention-at-first-presidential-debate/">climate change received more attention during the first Trump versus Biden debate than in any other presidential debate in history</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368483/original/file-20201110-18-1qjr9zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368483/original/file-20201110-18-1qjr9zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368483/original/file-20201110-18-1qjr9zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368483/original/file-20201110-18-1qjr9zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368483/original/file-20201110-18-1qjr9zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368483/original/file-20201110-18-1qjr9zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368483/original/file-20201110-18-1qjr9zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Comparing this year’s election results with the final polling average and previous election results, two divergent trends emerge. In Colorado, which produces the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/maps/">most shale oil and gas</a> in the U.S., voters remain supportive of Biden. Despite being defeated in Texas, the Democratic share of popular votes there increased to 46.4 per cent this year from 43.2 per cent in 2016. The results suggest one of two things: Either Biden’s talk of fossil fuel divestment did not substantially change voters’ minds, or it led to larger voter turnouts of progressive young voters.</p>
<p>The results in Ohio and Pennsylvania followed the same trend. Although Biden’s performance in both states has been worse than the national polling average numbers, he gained a larger share of votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016. </p>
<p>In Pennsylvania, Biden has managed to win 49.8 per cent of the votes, which is a solid performance considering Trump’s strong <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/02/energy-202-trump-mounts-last-minute-pro-fracking-push-pennsylvania/">pro-fracking push</a> in Pennsylvania days before the election. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368342/original/file-20201109-15-wik5rp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368342/original/file-20201109-15-wik5rp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368342/original/file-20201109-15-wik5rp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368342/original/file-20201109-15-wik5rp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368342/original/file-20201109-15-wik5rp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368342/original/file-20201109-15-wik5rp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368342/original/file-20201109-15-wik5rp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368342/original/file-20201109-15-wik5rp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Active oil and gas fracking wells in Pennsylvania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.depgis.state.pa.us/PaOilAndGasMapping/OilGasWellsStrayGasMap.html">(Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the county level, <a href="https://www.ydr.com/story/news/2020/11/05/elections-compare-pennsylvania-2016-polls-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden/6181124002/">the dynamics become more complicated</a>. In the southwest and northeast corners of the state where fracking activities concentrate, Trump held a decisive lead. In Bradford County, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-lancashire-15919248">one of the most fracked places on the planet</a>, Trump received over 70 per cent of the votes.</p>
<p>Although election results suggest that fossil fuel divestment did not negatively impact Biden’s overall election performance, it remains a pivotal and polarizing topic for many states, and could be a challenge for future progressive contenders.</p>
<p>Does such a political dilemma mean little political actions against the fracking industry and its lobbyists in the near future? We have to patiently wait for the next administration’s climate policies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sibo Chen receives funding from Ryerson University and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Some speculated that voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado and Texas would vote against Joe Biden because of his plans to phase out fossil fuels.Sibo Chen, Assistant Professor, School of Professional Communication, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1492512020-11-06T16:38:12Z2020-11-06T16:38:12ZHow to read U.S. election maps as votes are being counted<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367842/original/file-20201105-15-1f7x3vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3800%2C2912&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Where were the best electoral maps to be found during the 2020 U.S. presidential election?
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Clay Banks/Unsplash)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the world awaited a winner in the U.S. presidential election, people were glued to screens big and small for the latest results to be flashed on electoral maps. But not all maps are created equal. </p>
<p>I tracked 10 election maps from Canadian and U.S. news outlets such as <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/us/2020/results/">the CBC</a>, <em><a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/u-s-election-2020-live-results-map-projections-and-updates/">Maclean’s</a></em>, the <em><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-election-results-map-watch-donald-trump-and-joe-bidens/">Globe and Mail</a></em>, <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results">Fox News</a> and the <em><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html">New York Times</a></em>. While maps have long been used for political propaganda, even maps from sources <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/65b5df0e-49ff-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb">without a partisan bent “lie.”</a> They are, at best, partial representations of reality — statistical and design choices about what to illustrate and how. </p>
<p>So what did this year’s election maps rightly or wrongly tell us?</p>
<h2>Mapping on the web</h2>
<p>Since so many of us consume the news online, it was interactive maps embedded in websites that offered the most important windows onto the vote. Professional mapmakers — cartographers — know these tools are both promising and limited.</p>
<p>Unlike print maps, web maps often allow their users to customize design. For instance, web maps might allow “<a href="http://www.josis.org/index.php/josis/article/view/105">re-symbolization</a>” to show the data in a different way. Some interactive maps also let users drill deeper to get “<a href="https://www.cs.umd.edu/%7Eben/papers/Shneiderman1996eyes.pdf">details on demand</a>” — to see county level rather than just national level results. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.josis.org/index.php/josis/article/view/105">“Affordances” such as legends</a> that appear when users hover over parts of the map also help put more information on the map and into readers’ hands. Web maps can automatically reload with fresh data, but such updates <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/2020-election-misinformation-distortions#no-joe-biden-wasnt-suddenly-awarded-138000-votes-in-michigan">may be misunderstood</a> if care isn’t taken to contextualize them.</p>
<p>With all this in mind, we should ask ourselves two questions when we look at any U.S. election map.</p>
<h2>How complete is the data?</h2>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented mail-in voting and delays in ballot counting. We knew that many states <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/23/926258497/when-will-mail-in-ballots-be-counted-see-states-processing-timelines">would take days</a> to fully report their results.</p>
<p>Cartographers use a variety of “<a href="https://gistbok.ucgis.org/bok-topics/symbolization-and-visual-variables">visual variables</a>,” such as texture and brightness, in order to represent this kind of information. For instance, Fox News changed the brightness of its map’s reds and blues to illustrate the estimated number of votes counted, with darker colours representing areas that had reported more of their ballots.</p>
<p>The <em>New York Times</em> used multiple approaches to characterize uncertainties in election results. Some states appear textured, or hatched, because it wasn’t possible to say who had won yet. The percentage of votes counted is indicated in text, as well as in a legend available when users hover over the map. Map readers could click on the state to see which counties were still processing ballots, and the rest of the page provided even more detail.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The New York Times map of the U.S. election as of the morning of Nov. 5, 2020" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367760/original/file-20201105-17-vdfacv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367760/original/file-20201105-17-vdfacv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367760/original/file-20201105-17-vdfacv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367760/original/file-20201105-17-vdfacv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367760/original/file-20201105-17-vdfacv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367760/original/file-20201105-17-vdfacv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367760/original/file-20201105-17-vdfacv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The <em>New York Times</em> map of the U.S. election as of the morning of Nov. 5, 2020. It uses texture — hatches — to illustrate where the vote is still undetermined.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(The New York Times)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>But what does the map actually show?</h2>
<p>The most common American election maps <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/is-us-leaning-red-or-blue-election-maps/">overstate results</a> from rural areas because these consist of large but relatively unpopulated counties and states. The most infamous example is this map of the 2016 election that Trump supporters <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/01/politics/trump-impeach-this-map-fact-check/index.html">brought to his defence</a> during his impeachment, and which the president reportedly framed for the Oval Office:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"862669407868391424"}"></div></p>
<p>It shows 2016’s results by shading counties according to the party that won them, illustrating that the vast majority voted for Trump. It’s a good indicator that his support in 2016 was widespread in a geographic sense, but it does not actually show that he was popular, because the map does not account for how few people voted in these counties. It’s people who vote, not land.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fox News view of 2020 election results by county as of the morning of Nov. 5, 2020." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367765/original/file-20201105-15-bzup1k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367765/original/file-20201105-15-bzup1k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367765/original/file-20201105-15-bzup1k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367765/original/file-20201105-15-bzup1k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367765/original/file-20201105-15-bzup1k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367765/original/file-20201105-15-bzup1k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367765/original/file-20201105-15-bzup1k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fox News view of 2020 election results by county as of the morning of Nov. 5, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Fox News)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 2020 election, the conservative Fox News was the only outlet I reviewed that allowed its readers to see results in this way. Less misleading approaches showed county-level results using circles coloured by the vote winner and sized according to the number of voters or margin of victory.</p>
<p>But a presidential election map depicting county-level results gives the wrong impression anyway, since this is not how U.S. elections are decided. Trump wasn’t elected in 2016 because he won more ballots than Hillary Clinton, but because he earned more <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-is-the-american-president-elected-67632">electoral college</a> votes.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-is-the-american-president-elected-67632">How is the American President elected?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Each state has two electoral college votes, plus more based on its share of the total population. What matters is who wins the most votes across the entirety of each state, not in individual counties (though vote-rich counties can certainly sway a state’s final outcome).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A cartogram that appeared in _The Globe and Mail_ of U.S. election results as of the morning of Nov. 5, 2020." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367766/original/file-20201105-19-1mgsct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367766/original/file-20201105-19-1mgsct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367766/original/file-20201105-19-1mgsct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367766/original/file-20201105-19-1mgsct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367766/original/file-20201105-19-1mgsct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367766/original/file-20201105-19-1mgsct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367766/original/file-20201105-19-1mgsct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A cartogram that appeared in The <em>Globe and Mail</em> of U.S. election results as of the morning of Nov. 5, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Globe and Mail</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many election web maps — such as the <em>Globe and Mail</em>’s and <em>Maclean’s</em> (but not CBC’s) — allowed readers to toggle between a more standard view of the U.S. and a view of the states sized by their weight in the Electoral College. These “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/208794">cartograms</a>” provide the most informative view of who is ahead in the election, even if they are not the most intuitive.</p>
<p>Interactive web maps offer readers a sense of commanding results in real time. But they don’t always tell their readers much about the veracity of those results or how to understand them. </p>
<p>Web maps — whether of elections or pandemics — are not going away, so we would do well to better understand how to make and read them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149251/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Nost does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What did this year’s election maps rightly or wrongly tell us?Eric Nost, Assistant Professor in Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1496362020-11-06T14:29:51Z2020-11-06T14:29:51ZPennsylvania: why the Keystone State I call home unlocks the White House<p>Pennsylvania emerged as one of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-six-swing-states-likely-to-decide-who-is-the-next-president-148135">key swing states</a> crucial for determining the outcome of the 2020 US election. The Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, who is from the city of Scranton in the northeast of Pennsylvania, <a href="https://twitter.com/abbydphillip/status/1324710764201037824?s=20">took the lead</a> in the vote count on November 6 as he edged closer to the White House. </p>
<p>As I took a train from New York’s Penn Station in February last year and travelled through Amish country en route to my home town of Harrisburg, I reflected on the history and importance of this great state. I knew then, as I know now, that Pennsylvania would have profound effects on the 2020 election. </p>
<p>The rolling hills and countryside scenes, the mighty Susquehanna River, along which I watched countless 4th of July fireworks displays growing up, and the idyllic setting of my original 1757 family home nestled in Hemlock Hollow along the Yellow Breeches River, all filled my thoughts with how this original colony became and remains the keystone to understanding the complexities of American politics.</p>
<h2>Keystone State</h2>
<p>Known as the “Keystone State” for its geographical centrality to the 13 original colonies, Pennsylvania has played a significant role in US history. <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/visit/visit-philly">Independence Hall</a> in Philadelphia is the site where George Washington became <a href="https://www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/ourdocs/commission.html">commander in chief</a> of the Continental Army in 1775. </p>
<p>It’s also where the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/on-this-day-the-declaration-of-independence-is-officially-signed">Declaration of Independence was adopted</a> the following year, the US flag was designed and where the founders spent the summer crafting and then adopting the US constitution in 1787. Philadelphia was the temporary capital of the US between 1790 and 1800 while Washington DC was being built. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Statue on podium in front of redbrick building surrounded by trees." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367931/original/file-20201106-23-1hpbase.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367931/original/file-20201106-23-1hpbase.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367931/original/file-20201106-23-1hpbase.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367931/original/file-20201106-23-1hpbase.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367931/original/file-20201106-23-1hpbase.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367931/original/file-20201106-23-1hpbase.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367931/original/file-20201106-23-1hpbase.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Independence Hall in Philadelphia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sean Pavone via Shutterstock.</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The state is home to Gettysburg, where after three days of fierce fighting in July 1863 during the American Civil War and over 60,000 casualties, the Union Army defeated Confederate forces, held back <a href="https://www.battlefields.org/learn/civil-war/battles/gettysburg">“Picketts Charge”</a>, and forced General Robert E Lee to withdraw south to Virginia, ending his push to invade the North. </p>
<p>Pennsylvania is also known as the “Quaker State” with its prevalence of this religious community, instrumental in fomenting antislavery <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/abolition-and-abolitionists/">abolitionism</a>. It has given its name to motor oil company Quaker State Oil, after oil was discovered near the Allegheny River in 1859 and the <a href="https://franklypenn.com/2018/02/28/the-revolutionary-quaker-the-unheard-history-of-penns-mascot/">Quakers mascot</a> of the University of Pennsylvania, founded by Benjamin Franklin in 1740, where I was a student in the 1980s. </p>
<p>The state is known for its American football teams the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles, the baseball teams Pittsburgh Pirates and Phillies, and hockey teams the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers. Outside the state’s capital city of Harrisburg, <a href="https://www.hersheypa.com/">Hershey</a> is home to the famous chocolate brand where its street lights are made in the shape of the famous Hershey kisses. </p>
<h2>Economic and political contours</h2>
<p>Economically, the state has seen a mix of big industry, farming and commerce, and boasts a number of leading universities. Its history of steel production and subsequent decline makes it a <a href="https://en.as.com/en/2020/10/28/latest_news/1603895615_738601.html">“rustbelt”</a> state, where economic transformation has created different sets of political interests that affect voting patterns across the state. </p>
<p>The number of blue collar jobs have been hit hard over many years of industrial decline and the pandemic has exacerbated the problem with a further <a href="https://tracktherecovery.org/">19% drop</a> in employment for those earning less than US$27,000 per year. </p>
<p>Politically, the state has participated in all presidential elections, voting Democratic in the six elections prior to 2016, when Donald Trump won the state with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/pennsylvania">0.7% margin of the vote</a>. In the early years of the 20th century, the state had 38 electoral votes, but owing to migration out of the state, it now has <a href="https://www.270towin.com/states/Pennsylvania">20</a>. </p>
<p>Senate seats have been dominated by Republicans, while House seats have seen more of a mixed picture. Since 1974, there have been seven Democratic and five Republican state governors. Since 1992, the state legislature has been dominated by Republicans. </p>
<p>This patchwork of political control is typical of a swing state, and reflects its urban-rural split and other demographic features. The population density in large urban areas make the conversion of popular votes into electoral college votes a key focus of presidential elections.</p>
<h2>2020 counting tensions</h2>
<p>For the 2020 election, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/us/elections/trump-pennsylvania-voter-suppression.html">state legislature prohibited</a> any early processing of mail-in ballots, the sheer volume of which under the threat of the pandemic took a long time to count after the polls officially closed. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-pennsylvania-lawsuits-invoke-bush-v-gore-but-the-supreme-court-probably-wont-decide-the-2020-election-149538">Trump's Pennsylvania lawsuits invoke Bush v. Gore – but the Supreme Court probably won't decide the 2020 election</a>
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<p>The counting process is overseen by a bi-partisan commission, holed up in the Philadelphia Convention Center. On November 5, police foiled a <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/philadelphia-threat-two-men-arrested-outside-convention-center-vote-counting/">planned attack</a> from a group who had travelled from out of the state in an effort to halt the counting of votes.</p>
<p>Trump’s claim that same night that he had <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/05/politics/fact-check-trump-speech-thursday-election-rigged-stolen/index.html">already won Pennsylvania</a> could not be substantiated, since state voting rules allow for ballots to be counted until November 6 as long as they have been postmarked by November 3, election day – an approach that was upheld by the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/19/922411176/supreme-court-rules-pennsylvania-can-count-ballots-received-after-election-day">US Supreme Court</a>. </p>
<p>Pennsylvania has once again played a key role in American political history. And it is likely to remain a key battleground state for presidential elections in years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149636/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Landman receives funding from Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). </span></em></p>A profile of Joe Biden’s home state, which is crucial to securing victory in the 2020 US election.Todd Landman, Professor of Political Science, Pro Vice Chancellor of the Social Sciences, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1495382020-11-05T20:42:57Z2020-11-05T20:42:57ZTrump’s Pennsylvania lawsuits invoke Bush v. Gore – but the Supreme Court probably won’t decide the 2020 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367769/original/file-20201105-17-1arec82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C0%2C6000%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Judges can intervene in elections, but the Supreme Court really prefers not to.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/law-and-justice-concept-judges-gavel-scales-royalty-free-image/1139726848">Jantanee Phoolmas/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Trump campaign has <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/gop-pennsylvania-blocking-ballots-lawsuit-434045">filed two lawsuits in federal court over ballot counting and voting deadlines</a> in Pennsylvania, threatening to take the election to the Supreme Court. Both consciously echo the two main legal theories of <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2000/00-949">Bush v. Gore</a>, the infamous Supreme Court case that decided the contested 2000 presidential election. </p>
<p>But this race is not likely to be decided by the Supreme Court. </p>
<p>There are several reasons, sitting at the intersection of law and politics, why the ghosts of Florida past won’t rise again in Pennsylvania. As a <a href="https://www.memphis.edu/law/faculty-staff/steve-mulroy.php%20%20and%20election%20law%20scholar%20https://www.ssrn.com/index.cfm/en/">law professor</a> who authored a <a href="https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/rethinking-us-election-law-9781839106699.html">book on election reform</a>, I rate success in Trump’s efforts to wrench back Biden’s lead through litigation as a real long shot, though not out of the question.</p>
<h2>Equal protection</h2>
<p>Trump’s latest Pennsylvania lawsuit draws on the “equal protection” argument cited in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2000/00-949">Bush v. Gore</a>. </p>
<p>In the 2000 case, Democratic candidate Al Gore challenged Florida’s first machine-generated vote count when thousands of voters had problems marking their punch card ballots. The Florida Supreme Court allowed a statewide recount to ensure that all legal votes were counted. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367793/original/file-20201105-21-101lvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People look closely at a Florida ballot in 2000" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367793/original/file-20201105-21-101lvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367793/original/file-20201105-21-101lvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367793/original/file-20201105-21-101lvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367793/original/file-20201105-21-101lvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367793/original/file-20201105-21-101lvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367793/original/file-20201105-21-101lvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367793/original/file-20201105-21-101lvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Election officials review a ballot with observing attorneys in Florida, Nov. 22, 2000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FLORIDARECOUNT/ba3f4b629c8b4db38afa38c5a11c4bb2/photo">AP Photo/Victor Caivano</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>But the standards for counting the infamous “hanging chads” – incomplete marks on those punch card ballots – varied from county to county. The U.S. Supreme Court held that this lack of uniformity violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Constitution, which <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1907909">guarantees equal weight for votes</a>. The court shut down the recount and declared Bush, the Republican candidate, the winner in Florida – and therefore of the 2000 election. </p>
<p>Republicans are trying a similar play in Pennsylvania with a legal claim <a href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7281321/11-3-20-Barnett-v-Lawrence-Complaint.pdf">filed on Election Day</a>. </p>
<p>In some Pennsylvania counties, election officials were contacting voters whose mail-in ballots were <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-two-political-battlegrounds-thousands-of-mail-in-ballots-are-on-the-verge-of-being-rejected-148616">disqualified for technical reasons</a> to confirm their signature or fill in missing identifying information, validating their ballot so it will count. Since only some Pennsylvania counties were doing this “ballot curing” process, the Trump camp argues, the state’s lack of uniformity <a href="https://asu.pure.elsevier.com/en/publications/equal-protection-after-bush-v-gore">violates the Equal Protection Clause</a>. </p>
<p>No matter what the lower courts rule, the plaintiffs will likely take this case, which makes a federal constitutional claim, to the Supreme Court. </p>
<p>The court might decline to take it for any number of reasons. One is that in Bush v. Gore, the justices actually cautioned that their decision was unique to Florida’s 2000 vote count and should <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/00-949.ZPC.html">not be given much weight as precedent</a>.</p>
<h2>State legislatures</h2>
<p>Trump’s other Pennsylvania legal challenge, which was <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/10/pennsylvania-republicans-return-to-supreme-court-to-challenge-extended-deadline-for-mail-in-ballots/">filed in state court back in September</a>, is also rooted in Bush v. Gore. It invokes an often overlooked concurring opinion in that case, which advanced an alternate theory for handing Bush a win. </p>
<p>The opinion, written by Chief Justice William Rehnquist as a supplement to the majority decision, is rooted in the “plenary authority” of state legislatures to <a href="https://repository.uchastings.edu/hastings_constitutional_law_quaterly/vol35/iss4/1/">allocate Electoral College votes</a>. Under <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/article/article-ii">Article II of the Constitution</a>, state legislatures have total power to decide how their Electoral College votes should be awarded – they don’t even have to hold a presidential election if they don’t want to. Whatever their process, Rehnquist wrote, <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/146/1/">it should be respected</a>; no court, state or federal, should disturb it. </p>
<p>That “plenary authority” is not controversial. But Rehnquist’s concurrence is. In it, he argued that by ordering an emergency recount whose timing and deadlines deviated from the legislatively provided election rules, Florida’s Supreme Court was usurping the Florida legislature’s plenary authority. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367790/original/file-20201105-24-173zzli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A courtroom scene from 2000" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367790/original/file-20201105-24-173zzli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367790/original/file-20201105-24-173zzli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367790/original/file-20201105-24-173zzli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367790/original/file-20201105-24-173zzli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367790/original/file-20201105-24-173zzli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367790/original/file-20201105-24-173zzli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367790/original/file-20201105-24-173zzli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A witness testifies in one of the Florida cases that led to the U.S. Supreme Court’s Bush v. Gore ruling in 2000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/john-ahman-a-witness-called-by-the-bush-campaign-answers-news-photo/51972394">Craig Litten/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>This “Article II theory” is considered rather fringe – but Republicans are advancing it in Pennsylvania. </p>
<p>In September, the Pennsylvania courts agreed with the Democratic Party that due to COVID-19-related concerns, mail-in ballots received up to three days after the election <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-pennsylvania-lawsuits-elections-philadelphia-0f0e6f48361df96d2d74d68ac6838709">could still be counted</a>, even if the post office neglected to affix a legible postmark. In October, the state’s Supreme Court then <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/us/supreme-court-pennsylvania-north-carolina-absentee-ballots.html">ordered an extension of the receipt deadline for absentee ballots</a>. The GOP challenged this extension in federal court, arguing that Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court was usurping the state legislature’s authority by extending the mail ballot deadline.</p>
<p>Upon appeal, the U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/us/supreme-court-pennsylvania-voting.html">Supreme Court twice declined</a> to halt the counting of these late-arriving ballots in Pennsylvania. But it did order that the ballots in question <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/us/supreme-court-pennsylvania-north-carolina-absentee-ballots.html">be segregated for a possible post-election challenge</a>. </p>
<p>It is generally accepted that federal judges should <a href="https://www.uscourts.gov/about-federal-courts/court-role-and-structure/comparing-federal-state-courts">defer to a state court’s interpretation of its own state law</a>. But in <a href="https://www.theindianalawyer.com/articles/supreme-court-issues-flurry-of-last-minute-election-orders">separate opinions written on behalf of four conservative justices</a>, Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch used Rhenquist’s opinion on Bush v. Gore to argue that state courts cannot usurp the role of state legislatures. </p>
<p>In effect, these four justices believe Pennsylvania’s top court had no grounds to extend the voting deadline. Should the Supreme Court hear this case again, Justice Amy Coney Barrett – the conservative jurist who <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54700307">recently replaced the progressive Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg</a> – could become the crucial fifth vote necessary to overturn the Pennsylvania decision.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s Politics + Society editors pick need-to-know stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-need-to-know">Sign up for Politics Weekly</a>.]</p>
<h2>Court victory unlikely</h2>
<p>That ruling would invalidate all affected Pennsylvania votes, as well as votes anywhere else in the country where courts or administrators changed election rules to make them more flexible. That’s thousands upon thousands of votes, potentially enough to change the election’s outcome.</p>
<p>That outcome could be catastrophic for public confidence in both the Supreme Court and the American electoral process. </p>
<p>These lawsuits could theoretically stop the election from being <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-formally-declares-the-winner-of-the-us-presidential-election-145212">certified by the Electoral College per the normal procedure</a>. But more likely, if the suits had any traction, they would be resolved quickly to meet the Electoral College’s Dec. 12 deadline. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367792/original/file-20201105-16-1d7wxyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People in Pennsylvania process votes in 2020" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367792/original/file-20201105-16-1d7wxyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367792/original/file-20201105-16-1d7wxyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367792/original/file-20201105-16-1d7wxyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367792/original/file-20201105-16-1d7wxyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367792/original/file-20201105-16-1d7wxyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367792/original/file-20201105-16-1d7wxyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367792/original/file-20201105-16-1d7wxyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pennsylvania election workers process ballots, Nov. 4, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXElection2020PennsylvaniaVoteCounting/54d2d6155b234fd096c55f8c2a4f088b/photo">AP Photo/Matt Slocum</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This scenario looks increasingly less likely. After winning Wisconsin and Michigan, Joe Biden has a number of credible paths to the necessary 270 Electoral College votes without Pennsylvania. If that happens, a Supreme Court ruling there wouldn’t change the outcome of the 2020 election – though it could set an important precedent for later elections.</p>
<p>If there is a Trump loss that doesn’t hinge on Pennsylvania, the Supreme Court may also decline to hear his case. As a rule, the court is reluctant to decide issues unless it has to. </p>
<p>More Trump legal challenges in North Carolina, <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-judge-dismisses-trump-campaign-case-in-chatham-ballot-dispute/YKBA6IYQKBB4JCSQEIJBQQT6QI/">Georgia</a> and Michigan are involving the courts in this election. But this <a href="https://electionlawblog.org/?p=118179">litigation won’t be able to reverse a decisive, multi-state Electoral College win</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149538/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Mulroy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The GOP is hoping the ghosts of Florida past will tilt the race in Trump’s favor. But Joe Biden’s apparent electoral lead in numerous key states may insulate his win from such legal challenges.Steven Mulroy, Law Professor in Constitutional Law, Criminal Law, Election Law, University of MemphisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1495202020-11-05T05:24:12Z2020-11-05T05:24:12ZRe-election hopes fading, Trump tries for an election win in the courts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367652/original/file-20201105-13-16jhtwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evan Vucci/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Note: This piece was updated on November 6 with rulings in three cases.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Facing the gradual erosion of early leads in several battleground states — and increasingly likely defeat in the presidential election — the Trump campaign is launching a well-planned legal assault to challenge the validity of ballots and the process of vote-counting itself. </p>
<p>The Biden campaign is responding with an equally well-coordinated legal defence and a grassroots fundraising effort called the “<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/joe-biden-announces-fight-fund-for-vote-count-battle">Biden Fight Fund</a>”. </p>
<p>Once again, the courts will be called in to resolve a US presidential election, although it is unlikely any rulings will change the results significantly — unless the election comes down to extremely narrow margins in Pennsylvania or Georgia. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-if-biden-has-a-likely-win-leading-a-deeply-divided-nation-will-be-difficult-148185">Even if Biden has a likely win, leading a deeply divided nation will be difficult</a>
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<h2>Trump targets mail-in and early votes</h2>
<p>The unusual nature of the 2020 election — with a record <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/us/trump-biden-election">100 million people voting early</a> — ensured a topsy-turvy election night. Compounding the problem has been the large partisan divide in how people voted, with Democrats favouring early and mail-in voting and Republicans favouring in-person voting on election day. </p>
<p>Many states quickly reported the results from in-person ballots on election night, giving Trump an early lead in several battleground states. Those leads were then offset as mail-in and early votes were added to the tallies. </p>
<p>Trump has been encouraging his supporters to view these shifting totals as fishy, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/524404-trump-says-hell-go-to-supreme-court-to-stop-votes-from-being-counted">claiming</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is a major fraud on our nation. We want the law to be used in a proper manner. So we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>So far, Trump has indicated he will bring challenges in four states. This is what he is claiming and the chances he will ultimately be successful.</p>
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<h2>Wisconsin: Trump requests a recount</h2>
<p>In Wisconsin, where Biden leads Trump by less than a percentage point, the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/trump-campaign-request-recount-wisconsin-434055">Trump campaign announced it will seek a recount</a>. This is a relatively routine occurrence when margins are tight. Indeed, small margins often trigger <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/automatic-recount-thresholds.aspx#AR">automatic recounts</a> in many states. </p>
<p>After Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in 2016 by less than a <a href="https://www.axios.com/hillary-clinton-2016-election-votes-supreme-court-liberal-justice-1b4bc4fc-9fad-44b4-ab54-9ef86aa9c1f1.html">combined total of 80,000 votes</a> in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/12/pennsylvania-recount-jill-stein-request-denied">requested a recount</a>. The courts denied the request in Pennsylvania, but partial recounts occurred in Michigan and Wisconsin.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367666/original/file-20201105-14-185780.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Poll workers sort out early and absentee ballots in Kenosha, Wisconsin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wong Maye-E/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As FiveThirtyEight noted in 2016, <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/recounts-rarely-reverse-election-results/">recounts rarely change the results</a> of elections, except when margins are razor thin. </p>
<p>It is unlikely Biden’s current <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/trump-biden-wisconsin-results-presidential-race-2020/6158190002/">20,000 vote margin over Trump in Wisconsin</a> would be severely dented by a recount.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/history-tells-us-that-a-contested-election-wont-destroy-american-democracy-149503">History tells us that a contested election won't destroy American democracy</a>
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<h2>Michigan: Trump seeks a (temporary) halt to counting</h2>
<p>In Michigan, the Trump campaign <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/trump-mich-complaint.pdf">filed a complaint</a> seeking to halt the vote count on the basis that Republican Party “election inspectors” (that is, poll workers) do not have access to venues where the counting is taking place. </p>
<p>It is not uncommon for poll workers in the US to be <a href="https://www.eac.gov/voters/become-poll-worker">affiliated with a political party</a>. Many states, including Michigan, require poll workers from both parties <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/Managing_Your_Precinct_on_Election_Day_391790_7.pdf">to be present when votes are counted</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367664/original/file-20201105-23-38rhnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Election challengers observe as absentee ballots are processed in Detroit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carlos Osorio/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the filing provides no evidence that Republican poll workers have been denied access to vote-counting sites. Additionally, the legal bases of the claim appear weak. </p>
<p>For example, the complaint alleges Michigan is breaching the equal protection clause of the US Constitution because it is treating some voters differently from others in the state. Presumably, as the campaign alleges, this is because Democratic poll workers have been granted access to vote-counting sites that Republicans have not.</p>
<p>An appeals court judge <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/05/us/trump-biden#the-trump-team-loses-court-cases-in-georgia-and-michigan-but-gets-a-small-win-in-pennsylvania">ruled against the Trump campaign</a> on Thursday, saying the lawsuit had been filed long after the count had begun and that “the essence of the count is completed.” </p>
<h2>Pennsylvania: taking it to the Supreme Court</h2>
<p>In Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign <a href="http://www.pacourts.us/assets/files/setting-7731/file-10372.pdf?cb=759f86">initiated court procedings</a> to stop the vote count. </p>
<p>The first part of the lawsuit is similar to the challenge in Michigan: the campaign is seeking to stop vote-counting until Republican poll observers are given access to the sites. </p>
<p>Deputy campaign manager Justin Clark alleges Republican poll observers were unable to observe vote counting because they were forced to be too far away – a claim conspicuously absent in the Michigan filing.</p>
<p>The Trump campaign <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/05/us/election-results?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#in-photos-the-world-is-watching">scored a victory</a> here on Thursday, with a court ordering Philadelphia election officials to grant its observers better access to vote-counting areas.</p>
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<p>The second part of the Pennsylvania action seeks to reject mail-in ballots from first-time voters who did not provide proof of identity when they registered. </p>
<p>The campaign claims Pennsylvania’s secretary of state didn’t follow the proper process in deciding to accept the ballots from these voters — a breach of federal law. However, the campaign has yet to produce evidence that significant numbers of first-time voters did not prove their identity. </p>
<p>This is perhaps the more interesting legal argument. The <a href="https://www.congress.gov/107/plaws/publ252/PLAW-107publ252.pdf">Help America Vote Act of 2002</a>, a federal law passed in response to the contested 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, does <a href="https://civilrights.findlaw.com/other-constitutional-rights/federal-voter-id-requirements-the-help-america-vote-act-hava.html">require new voters to provide identification</a> to register to vote. </p>
<p>If the Trump campaign’s lawsuit is successful, it could result in the removal of a swathe of mail-in ballots from the Pennsylvania vote tally.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/over-1-million-mail-in-ballots-could-be-rejected-in-the-us-election-and-the-rules-are-changing-by-the-day-148188">Over 1 million mail-in ballots could be rejected in the US election — and the rules are changing by the day</a>
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<p>In addition to these two challenges, the Trump campaign is <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-542/159651/20201104151441413_20-542%2020-574%20PA%20Mot%20to%20Intervene.pdf">appealing</a> a decision by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to allow the counting of mail-in ballots <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/us/supreme-court-pennsylvania-north-carolina-absentee-ballots.html">received within three days after election day</a> to the US Supreme Court.</p>
<p>The US Supreme Court <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/supreme-court-wont-fast-track-gop-challenge-to-pennsylvania-ballot-deadline.html">rejected the Republican Party’s petition</a> to fast-track a challenge to the decision in October, but <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-asks-supreme-court-intervene-pennsylvania-vote-count/story?id=74026219">appeared willing to consider it after election day</a>. </p>
<p>As of yet, we do not know how many ballots could be affected by this ruling — and the counting of ballots continues.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367668/original/file-20201105-21-8uakwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Trump campaign announces its legal challenges to vote counting in Pennsylvania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Slocum/AP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Georgia: confusion created by courts takes centre stage</h2>
<p>Finally, in Georgia, the Trump campaign <a href="https://cdn.donaldjtrump.com/public-files/press_assets/petition-for-enforcement-of-election-law.pdf">filed a petition</a> to prevent any potential counting of late-arriving mail-in ballots. </p>
<p>In one sense, this action is the most straightforward of all the challenges. The petition seeks an order that the existing law be enforced: that all mail-in ballots arriving after 7pm on election day are excluded from the count. </p>
<p>However, the deadline for mail-in ballots in Georgia was also the subject of pre-election legal challenges — meaning voters could have been confused by the rules.</p>
<p>A court initially ruled these ballots could be counted for up to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-georgia-general-elections-voting-rights-f7ef69c7f79ddc036a14f76a00a4870d">three days after the election</a>, but this decision was then overturned by a higher court.</p>
<p>A judge <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/05/us/trump-biden#the-trump-team-loses-court-cases-in-georgia-and-michigan-but-gets-a-small-win-in-pennsylvania">dismissed</a> the Trump campaign lawsuit on Thursday, saying there was “no evidence” that mail-in ballots were received late.</p>
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<h2>Challenges are unlikely to be Trump’s path to victory</h2>
<p>For now, the Trump campaign has not launched any challenges in the other battleground states of Nevada and Arizona. </p>
<p>We may not end up seeing any challenges in these states, given the tight deadlines involved with elections. All litigation must be resolved or halted by <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/the-electoral-college.aspx">December 8</a> so the election results can be certified and the Electoral College process can continue. This culminates in the vote that legally chooses the next president on January 6.</p>
<p>The legal challenges are a long shot for the Trump campaign to change the outcome of the election. </p>
<p>If Biden is declared the winner this week and the challenges fail, there may be another repercussion. It could further undermine confidence in the electoral process — a strategy Trump has employed, with varying degrees of success, throughout the race.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149520/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah John has received funding for a National Endowment for the Humanities-funded project on 19th century US elections. She also worked on election-related projects funded by the Democracy Fund, Hewlett Foundation, Laura and John Arnold Foundation, and the RCV Resources Center.</span></em></p>Trump is contesting the results in four key battleground states. Here is what he is claiming — and his chances of success in stopping the vote count or overturning the results.Sarah John, College of Business, Government and Law, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1481352020-11-02T12:06:45Z2020-11-02T12:06:45ZUS election: six swing states likely to decide who is the next president<p>With at least 94 million early votes cast by the eve of US election day, Americans are engaged in a highly contested election for the president, one third of the Senate, and all of the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>The outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally disrupted the US economy, society, and political landscape, as well as increased many risks around the conduct of a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13669877.2020.1765003">genuine and transparent election</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://tracktherecovery.org/">economy</a> has seen large fluctuations in quarterly <a href="https://www.bea.gov/">growth</a> rates, a fall in family income, and a rise in unemployment, while at the same time a buoyant stock market, despite a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/10/28/trump-stock-market-2020/">rocky ride</a> in the week before the election, provides hope for recovery. The campaigns have spent more than <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/13/923427969/presidential-campaign-tv-ad-spending-crosses-1-billion-mark-in-key-states?t=1604317864770">US$1 billion to reach voters</a> in battleground states. Analysis of the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/">“poll of polls”</a> shows Democratic candidate Joe Biden with more than a 8-point lead over Republican president, Donald Trump.</p>
<p>But despite the abnormalities of the 2020 election cycle, as in many previous races, the result will hang on what happens in a select bunch of key swing states. </p>
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<h2>Swing machine</h2>
<p>Crucial to understanding the conversion of votes to success in any US presidential election is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-could-replace-the-electoral-college-138769">electoral college</a>. In its first past the post system to collate proportionate electoral votes by state, each candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. The electoral college was crucial in Trump’s 2016 victory. He lost the popular vote by <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html">just under 3 million votes</a>, but won the presidency with 306 electoral college votes to the 232 for Hillary Clinton.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-world-watches-us-election-the-appeal-of-america-is-diminished-148495">As the world watches US election, the appeal of America is diminished</a>
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<p>The Trump victory in 2016 came late on election day and rested on securing the electoral votes from swing states, which have high voter volatility and demographic diversity, often making them too close to call. While different states come into play in different election cycles, swing states for the 2020 election include Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. </p>
<p>Four years ago, Trump held rallies across these states and carried all but one of them (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president">Minnesota</a>). The electoral landscape in 2020 looks different, with three “toss-up” states (Florida, Georgia, and Texas), six Biden-leaning states (Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), and two Trump-leaning states (Iowa and Ohio). </p>
<p>Swing state dominance, coupled with the control of safer states, put the electoral odds in Biden’s favour. Early voting, mail-in voting, and different <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/elj.2017.0478">costs of voting</a> that can affect turnout – including registration, poll opening times and how accessible polling is – means there is still much to be revealed on election day. Here are six states worth keeping an eye on.</p>
<h2>Six states to watch</h2>
<p><strong>Pennsylvania</strong></p>
<p>Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where I was born, voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but now shows a strong preference for Trump along with other rural and working class areas in the state, while cities such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are polling well for the Democrats. It was also a state where <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/pennsylvania/president">exit polls</a> showed Trump had support from 50% of white women in 2016.</p>
<p>Pennsylvania has 20 electoral college votes, which Trump won in 2016 with a 0.78% margin. For 2020, Biden carries a lead in the polls and has gained ground over the course of the campaign, a surprising struggle given he comes from Scranton, a city in the northeast with over 75,000 people, and from a state that voted for the Democrats between 1992 and 2016. Attempts to get the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/us/elections/trump-pennsylvania-voter-suppression.html">Supreme Court</a> to rule out the planned extension of a mail-in ballot deadline until November 6, if the vote was postmarked by election day, have been rejected for reasons of time.</p>
<p><strong>Arizona</strong></p>
<p>Arizona is a sunbelt and border state, which has voted Republican since 1957, except when Bill Clinton won it in 1996. Large <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/arizona-senate-race-mark-kelly-martha-mcsally.html">demographic shifts</a> and migration of people from California, as well as the presence of the oft-attacked McCain dynasty have <a href="https://www.270towin.com/states/Wisconsin">changed the political complexion</a> of the state. </p>
<p>Biden heads into November 3 with a lead in the polls in Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes. Meanwhile, the “independent” Democratic candidate Mark Kelly is leading in his Senate race against incumbent Republican Martha McSally.</p>
<p><strong>Texas</strong></p>
<p>In Texas, Biden is neck and neck with Trump in a traditionally Republican state that shares a long border with Mexico – a focal point for Trump’s promise to build a wall – and a strong cohort of Latino Republican voters. With 38 electoral college votes at stake, the state has been a reliable stronghold for Trump, who will likely win by a whisker. </p>
<p><strong>Florida</strong></p>
<p>With 29 electoral college votes up for grabs, the race in the Sunshine State is very tight. Florida was a site of Democratic success in the 2018 midterms, but is also led by a Republican governor. The state is notorious for the “hanging chad” ballot problem central to the contested 2000 Bush-Gore election which resulted in the US Supreme Court deciding the election. This foreshadows <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2020/10/16/floridas-election-may-hinge-on-mail-ballot-signatures-the-hanging-chad-of-2020/">ongoing debates</a> over how people actually vote.</p>
<p>Trump has made the state his home, and enjoys support among Cuban and Venezuelan Americans there. Both campaigns have sought to woo voters with Trump rallies, Biden events, and a visit from Barack Obama in Miami and Orlando. St. Petersburg and Tampa have voted Democrat in past elections, and a recent <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-election-battlegrounds-poll-idUKKBN27D324">Reuters/Ipsos poll</a> puts both candidates in a statistical dead heat. </p>
<p><strong>Georgia</strong></p>
<p>One of the original colonies, part of the “old south”, Georgia has participated in all elections since the founding (with the exception of 1864 during its secession). It was a Democratic stronghold until 1972, when it flipped Republican. Biden has a slight lead, but like Florida, the margin of error in polling suggests that the state is still in toss-up territory. </p>
<p><strong>Wisconsin</strong></p>
<p>Known for its cheese production and Miller beer (since 1855), Wisconsin has ten electoral votes. Trump won the state in 2016 with only a <a href="https://www.270towin.com/states/Wisconsin">0.7% margin</a> in the popular vote. Biden leads by over an average of 6% (in <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/covid-surge-hurts-trump-wisconsin-biden-leads-closer/story?id=73834112">one poll</a> by 17%) and is likely to take the state in 2020. Unlike in Pennsylvania, a few days before polling day, the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20a66_b07d.pdf">Supreme Court</a> ruled that the state’s decision to extend the election by six days could not be upheld and that only those ballots received by the deadline would be counted, as it is done in over 30 other states. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-formally-declares-the-winner-of-the-us-presidential-election-145212">Who formally declares the winner of the US presidential election?</a>
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<p>The last days of the campaign saw both candidates criss-crossing the country to garner support. On election night, all eyes will be on these swing states, with both sides matching <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-americans-are-so-enamored-with-election-polls-148762">polling data</a> to electoral returns, and waiting for any last minute surprises. Given the underlying data, the election is now Biden’s to lose, and these battleground states will be critical to the outcome, the confirmation of which may take several days after the election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Landman receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council in the UK.</span></em></p>As Joe Biden and Donald Trump spend the final day of the US 2020 election campaign in key battlegrounds – why a handful of states will be so crucial to the result.Todd Landman, Professor of Political Science, Pro Vice Chancellor of the Social Sciences, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1481882020-10-21T19:00:34Z2020-10-21T19:00:34ZOver 1 million mail-in ballots could be rejected in the US election — and the rules are changing by the day<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364622/original/file-20201021-21-1fmt70i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=323%2C44%2C5182%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elaine Thompson/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the US election next month, record-breaking numbers of voters will cast their ballots by mail for the first time. Millions of these ballots will be processed by local election administrations inexperienced with large numbers of mail-in votes. </p>
<p>In this environment, many ballots are likely to be rejected for technical reasons, such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/07/upshot/mail-voting-ballots-signature-matching.html">non-matching signatures</a> (the signature on the ballot doesn’t match the signature on voter registration forms), raising the risk of protracted court battles in key battleground states. </p>
<p>Already, lawsuits are being filed in many of these states to try to prevent or reduce ballot rejections, which, perversely, may only make the problem worse if voters can’t keep track of constantly changing rules.</p>
<p>Large numbers of ballot rejections could prove pivotal if the race is close in key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which Donald Trump <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/01/donald-trump-will-be-president-thanks-to-80000-people-in-three-states/">won by less than 80,000 votes in total</a> in 2016 to claim victory over Hillary Clinton. </p>
<p>But there is also a longer-term risk to voters’ belief in the fundamentals of democracy itself if they cast a ballot that literally does not count. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364631/original/file-20201021-17-mh3vcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364631/original/file-20201021-17-mh3vcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364631/original/file-20201021-17-mh3vcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364631/original/file-20201021-17-mh3vcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364631/original/file-20201021-17-mh3vcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364631/original/file-20201021-17-mh3vcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364631/original/file-20201021-17-mh3vcs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The fight over mail-in voting has extended to how many ballot drop boxes are available, too.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elaine Thompson/AP</span></span>
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<h2>How many ballots could be rejected?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/eac_assets/1/6/2016_EAVS_Comprehensive_Report.pdf">According to the Election Assistance Commission</a> (EAC), a federal agency created to help states modernise their voting systems after the “<a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/house-republicans-just-voted-to-eliminate-the-only-federal-agency-that-makes-sure-voting-machines-cant-be-hacked/">hanging chads</a>” problem in the 2000 presidential election, less than 5% of voters in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voted by mail in 2016. </p>
<p>But 2020 will be different. In Pennsylvania, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/naked-ballots-pennsylvania-election-wild-card/story?id=73494058">2.5 million voters</a> requested mail-in ballots — about eight times as many as 2016. And more than <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/04/909793697/north-carolina-becomes-1st-state-to-send-out-mail-in-ballots-for-november-electi">ten times as many North Carolinians</a> requested mail-in ballots in 2020 than 2016. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1316759029457342465"}"></div></p>
<p>A dramatic increase like this could very easily overwhelm county election administrators who are unfamiliar with the system and <a href="https://www.nbcboston.com/news/politics/decision-2020/galvin-more-money-needed-for-mail-in-voting/2191386/">under-resourced to process</a> masses of mail-in ballots. </p>
<p>In every election with mail-in voting, some ballots are not counted for reasons unrelated to the eligibility of the voter. Most commonly, these “rejected” ballots arrived too late, lacked the requisite signature or <a href="https://www.vox.com/21452393/naked-ballots-pennsylvania-secrecy-envelope">“secrecy” envelope</a> or had some other technical problem.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mail-in-votings-potential-problems-only-begin-at-the-post-office-an-underfunded-underprepared-decentralized-system-could-be-trouble-143798">Mail-in voting's potential problems only begin at the post office – an underfunded, underprepared decentralized system could be trouble</a>
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<p>In the 2016 presidential election, the <a href="https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/eac_assets/1/6/2016_EAVS_Comprehensive_Report.pdf">EAC found</a> about 1% of the 33.4 million total absentee ballots were rejected — or about 319,000 overall.</p>
<p>However, in some counties, rates were much higher. Nassau County, an affluent county just outside New York City, reported <a href="https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/datasets-codebooks-and-surveys">rejecting 82% of its mail-in ballots</a> (mostly because they missed the deadline). Greene County, Arkansas, reported rejecting 48% of its mail-in ballots (mostly because the voter did not write their address on the envelope, <a href="https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2020/oct/12/how-vote-absentee-ballot-arkansas/?elections">which is a requirement in Arkansas</a>). </p>
<p>It is likely more ballots could be rejected in this year’s election — <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2020/10/08/rejected-mail-ballots-projected-major-factor-2020-election/3576714001/">USA Today estimates more than 1 million</a>, if half the nation votes by mail. </p>
<p>We got our first taste of the problem during the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries earlier this year. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/22/904693468/more-than-550-000-primary-absentee-ballots-rejected-in-2020-far-outpacing-2016">More than 550,000 ballots were rejected</a> in these contests — nearly twice as many as the 2016 general election.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364646/original/file-20201021-13-1m39bjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364646/original/file-20201021-13-1m39bjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364646/original/file-20201021-13-1m39bjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364646/original/file-20201021-13-1m39bjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364646/original/file-20201021-13-1m39bjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364646/original/file-20201021-13-1m39bjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364646/original/file-20201021-13-1m39bjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The rules for early voting and absentee ballots differ state by state.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CRISTOBAL HERRERA-ULASHKEVICH/EPA</span></span>
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<h2>Mishmash of laws and court rulings</h2>
<p>Even in normal times, voting by mail is complex. Technical requirements and formats vary greatly from state to state. </p>
<p>Some states, like Pennsylvania, require the ballot to be ensconced in <a href="https://www.phillymag.com/news/2020/10/05/secrecy-envelope-mail-in-ballot-pennsylvania/">a second “secrecy” envelope</a>. Without this, the ballot will be rejected. </p>
<p>And <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Absentee/mail-in_voting_signature_and_witness_requirements,_2020">six states</a>, including the key battleground states of North Carolina and Wisconsin, require a witness to verify the voter’s signature. Without this, the ballot will be rejected. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, research reveals <a href="http://www.dartmouth.edu/%7Eherron/VBM_experience.pdf">inexperienced voters</a>, including <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/elj.2020.0658">younger voters</a>, are more likely to have their mail-in ballots rejected.</p>
<p>And while there is <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-ballot-fraud-allegations-embellished-widespread-experts/story?id=73701060">no evidence</a> mail-in voting leads to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.ctt7zgg1">widespread voter fraud</a> — as Trump has repeatedly claimed — rejected ballots do have the potential to determine election outcomes. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1275024974579982336"}"></div></p>
<p>For this reason, rules about accepting and rejecting mail-in ballots are currently the subject of hundreds of court actions.</p>
<p>In the absence of a concerted national effort to reduce ballot rejection rates, citizen and activist groups and Democratic state party organisations have filed lawsuits seeking to remove technical requirements for mail-in ballots in numerous states. </p>
<p>Republican state party organisations, meanwhile, are <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/pennsylvania-republicans-urge-supreme-court-overturn-mail-ballot-ruling-n1241285">appealing those decisions</a> and challenging policy changes that loosen technical requirements.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-mail-in-votes-proof-of-citizenship-the-long-history-of-preventing-minorities-from-voting-in-the-us-146669">No mail-in votes, proof of citizenship: the long history of preventing minorities from voting in the US</a>
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<p>Using the courts in this way creates uncertainty, and may even serve to increase the number of ballots that are rejected.</p>
<p>In some states, court rulings that have loosened requirements have been overturned only weeks later by higher courts. In early October, for example, the US Supreme Court <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/05/920574243/scotus-sides-with-s-c-to-reinstate-witness-signature-mandate-for-absentee-ballot">reinstated the witness requirement</a> for South Carolinian mail-in voters after a lower court had ordered it removed. </p>
<p>Consequently, South Carolina voters have received mail-in ballots with <a href="https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article246398885.html">outdated instructions</a>, increasing the risk their votes will be rejected.</p>
<p>Every day, there are new court rulings. For example, last week, a Michigan appeals court <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/16/court-reversal-late-arriving-absentee-ballots-appeal/3685296001/">overturned a lower court</a> ruling that prevented ballots from being rejected if they arrived late, so long as they were postmarked November 2 or earlier.</p>
<p>This week, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/us/supreme-court-pennsylvania-voting.html">US Supreme Court ruled</a> mail-in ballots could be counted for up to three days after election day in Pennsylvania, so long as they were postmarked by November 3. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364648/original/file-20201021-17-1ytnhmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364648/original/file-20201021-17-1ytnhmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364648/original/file-20201021-17-1ytnhmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364648/original/file-20201021-17-1ytnhmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364648/original/file-20201021-17-1ytnhmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364648/original/file-20201021-17-1ytnhmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364648/original/file-20201021-17-1ytnhmb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A Pennsylvania ballot and ‘secrecy’ envelope.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gene J. Puskar/AP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>This decision could prove critical in a tight race. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/19/922411176/supreme-court-rules-pennsylvania-can-count-ballots-received-after-election-day">by just 44,000 votes</a> out of some 6 million cast. </p>
<p>And in Texas, which has the <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/19/texas-voting-elections/">most restrictive voting rules</a> of anywhere in the country, an appeals court overturned a lower court decision this week to allow election officials to reject ballots without matching signatures without giving voters a chance to challenge. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1318357902801969152"}"></div></p>
<h2>Will ballot rejections erode trust in democracy?</h2>
<p>There are long-term risks to these battles over mail-in voting, as well. </p>
<p>Voters would understandably be disheartened to learn their ballots were rejected in the election — and their votes didn’t count — after they went to the effort of voting by mail. This risks a genuine disengagement with the electoral system.</p>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/bp.2008.29?shared-article-renderer">Researchers in Scotland</a> have found high rates of ballot rejections in the 2007 Scottish parliament elections caused many to question the fairness of the electoral system, possibly resulting in lower voter turnout rates in future elections. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mail-in-voting-is-safe-and-reliable-5-essential-reads-145435">Mail-in voting is safe and reliable – 5 essential reads</a>
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<p>Not much research has emerged in the US on the effects of ballot rejection on future political participation. But this will likely change after this election, particularly if ballot rejections are widespread.</p>
<p>We should expect to hear many angry partisan allegations about “naked” ballots (those missing special secrecy envelopes), postmarks and signatures in the weeks after the election. </p>
<p>But we should also spare a thought for the citizens who find out the ballots they diligently returned were rejected on a technicality. They may not be so inclined to vote again in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148188/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah John has received funding for a National Endowment for the Humanities-funded project on 19th century US elections. She also worked on election-related projects funded by the Democracy Fund, Hewlett Foundation, Laura and John Arnold Foundation, and the RCV Resources Center.</span></em></p>The rules governing how mail-in voting works and how ballots can be rejected differ state by state. In a close election, this could prove pivotal to deciding who wins.Sarah John, College of Business, Government and Law, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1229972019-09-11T12:19:26Z2019-09-11T12:19:26ZWhy community-owned grocery stores like co-ops are the best recipe for revitalizing food deserts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291808/original/file-20190910-190044-cpinfc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Detroit People's Food Co-op, opening later this year in a food desert, is an example of a community-driven project.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">DPFC</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tens of millions of Americans <a href="https://www.dosomething.org/us/facts/11-facts-about-hunger-us">go to bed hungry</a> at some point every year. While poverty is the primary culprit, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2722409/">some blame food insecurity</a> on the lack of grocery stores in low-income neighborhoods.</p>
<p>That’s why <a href="https://www.ccachicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Chicago-2011-Transition-Report.pdf">cities</a>, <a href="http://thefoodtrust.org/what-we-do/supermarkets">states</a> and national leaders including former first lady <a href="https://foodinsight.org/first-lady-michelle-obamas-healthy-food-financing-initiative-announcement-highlights-the-importance-of-affordable-healthful-foods-in-underserved-communities/">Michelle Obama</a> made eliminating so-called “food deserts” a priority in recent years. This prompted some of the biggest U.S. retailers, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retailers-seek-answers-to-food-desert-problem-2016-11-10">such as Walmart, SuperValu and Walgreens</a>, to <a href="https://apnews.com/8bfc99c7c99646008acf25e674e378cf">promise to open or expand</a> stores in underserved areas. </p>
<p>One problem is that many neighborhoods in inner cities <a href="https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/usp_fac/191/">fear gentrification</a>, when big corporations swoop in with development plans. As a result, some new supermarkets never <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/instituteforjustice/2014/12/23/philadelphia-artist-defeats-eminent-domain-land-grab-will-keep-his-studio/#7cf79659591e">got past the planning stage</a> or <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/10/8/3325">closed within a few months of opening</a> because residents did not shop at the new store. </p>
<p>To find out why some succeeded while others failed, three colleagues and I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.1863">performed an exhaustive search</a> for every supermarket that had plans to open in a food desert since 2000 and what happened to each. </p>
<h2>What’s a food desert?</h2>
<p>I’m actually rather skeptical that food deserts have a significant impact on whether Americans go hungry.</p>
<p>In previous research with urban planners <a href="https://www.pdx.edu/profile/meet-professor-megan-horst">Megan Horst</a> and <a href="http://foodsystemsplanning.ap.buffalo.edu/raj/">Subhashni Raj</a>, we found that diet-related health <a href="https://doi.org/10.2148/benv.43.3.328">more closely correlates with household income</a> than with access to a supermarket. One can be poor, live near a grocery store and still be unable to afford a healthy diet.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the lack of one, particularly in urban neighborhoods, is often a broader sign of disinvestment. In addition to selling food, supermarkets act as <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfcr/y2009p75-87nv.5no.3.html">economic generators</a> by providing local jobs and offering the convenience of neighborhood services, such as pharmacies and banks. </p>
<p>I believe every neighborhood should have these amenities. But how should we define them?</p>
<p>U.K.-based public health researchers Steven Cummins and Sally Macintyre coined the term in the 1990s and described food deserts as low-income communities whose residents <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098022000011399">didn’t have the purchasing power</a> to support supermarkets. </p>
<p>The U.S. Department of Agriculture began looking at these areas in <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-environment-atlas/">2008</a>, when it officially defined food deserts as communities with either 500 residents or 33% of the population living more than a mile from a supermarket in urban areas. The distance jumps to 10 miles away in rural areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291841/original/file-20190910-190002-ujn60d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291841/original/file-20190910-190002-ujn60d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291841/original/file-20190910-190002-ujn60d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291841/original/file-20190910-190002-ujn60d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291841/original/file-20190910-190002-ujn60d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291841/original/file-20190910-190002-ujn60d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291841/original/file-20190910-190002-ujn60d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291841/original/file-20190910-190002-ujn60d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The map shows how many people in different counties across the country lived in food deserts in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-environment-atlas/go-to-the-atlas/">USDA ERS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although the agency has created <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-access-research-atlas/documentation/">three other ways</a> to measure food deserts, we stuck with the original 2008 definition for our study. By that measure, <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/82101/eib-165.pdf?v=0">about 38% of U.S. Census tracts</a> were food deserts in 2015, the latest data available, slightly down from 39.4% in 2010. </p>
<p>That means about 19 million people, or 6.2% of the U.S. population, <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-access-research-atlas/documentation/">lived in a food desert in 2015</a>.</p>
<h2>Michelle Obama makes it a priority</h2>
<p><a href="http://thefoodtrust.org/what-we-do/supermarkets">The Food Trust</a> was among the first to tackle the problem. In 2004, the Philadelphia-based nonprofit used US$30 million in state seed money to help finance 88 supermarket projects throughout Pennsylvania, which helped make healthy food available to about 400,000 underserved residents. </p>
<p>Our research followed the success as it drew attention nationally. Rahm Emanuel <a href="https://www.ccachicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Chicago-2011-Transition-Report.pdf">made eliminating food deserts in Chicago a top initiative</a> when he became the city’s mayor in 2011. And Michelle Obama <a href="https://foodinsight.org/first-lady-michelle-obamas-healthy-food-financing-initiative-announcement-highlights-the-importance-of-affordable-healthful-foods-in-underserved-communities/">helped launch</a> the <a href="https://www.acf.hhs.gov/ocs/programs/community-economic-development/healthy-food-financing">Healthy Food Financing Initiative</a> in 2010 to encourage supermarkets to open in food deserts across the country. The following year major food retailers promised to open or expand 1,500 <a href="http://get-hwhc.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Partnership-for-a-Healthier-America.pdf">supermarket or convenience stores</a> in and around food desert neighborhoods by 2016.</p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://www.frbsf.org/community-development/files/supermarkets-in-food-deserts-development-financing-health-promotion.pdf">receiving generous federal financial support</a>, retailers <a href="https://apnews.com/8bfc99c7c99646008acf25e674e378cf">managed to open or expand just 250 stores</a> in food deserts during the period. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291648/original/file-20190909-109952-1j1a1zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291648/original/file-20190909-109952-1j1a1zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291648/original/file-20190909-109952-1j1a1zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291648/original/file-20190909-109952-1j1a1zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291648/original/file-20190909-109952-1j1a1zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291648/original/file-20190909-109952-1j1a1zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291648/original/file-20190909-109952-1j1a1zm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The food trust financed dozens of supermarket projects in Pennsylvania in 2004.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Healthy-Corner-Stores-/75483a880946408da27cd14c0fd03293/2/0">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How to grow in a food desert</h2>
<p>We wanted to dig deeper and see just how many of the new stores were actually supermarkets and how they’ve fared. </p>
<p>I teamed up with <a href="https://www.spi.ox.ac.uk/people/dr-benjamin-chrisinger">Benjamin Chrisinger</a>, <a href="https://humanecology.ucdavis.edu/student-spotlight">Jose Flores</a> and <a href="https://sociology.ucdavis.edu/people/cglennie">Charlotte Glennie</a> and examined press releases, website listings and scholarly studies to assemble a database of supermarkets that had announced plans to open new locations in food deserts since 2000. </p>
<p>We were particularly interested in the driving forces behind each project. </p>
<p>We identified only 71 supermarket plans that met our criteria. Of those, 21 were driven by government, 18 by community leaders, 12 by nonprofits and eight by commercial interests. Another dozen were driven by a combination of government initiative with community involvement.</p>
<p>Then we looked at how many actually stuck around. We found that all 22 of the supermarkets opened by community or nonprofits are still open today. Two were canceled, while six are in progress. </p>
<p>In contrast, nearly half of the commercial stores and a third of the government developments have closed or didn’t it make it past planning. Five of the government/community projects also failed or were canceled.</p>
<p><iframe id="QNZor" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QNZor/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A shuttered supermarket is more than just a business failure. It <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/40499246/how-closing-grocery-stores-perpetuate-food-deserts-long-after-theyre-gone">can perpetuate the food desert problem</a> for years and prevent new stores from opening in the same location, <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/2019/01/10/louisville-food-deserts-how-grocery-stores-closing-hurt-community/1944809002/">worsening a neighborhood’s blight</a>. </p>
<h2>Why co-ops succeeded</h2>
<p>So why did the community-driven supermarkets survive and thrive? </p>
<p>Importantly, 16 of the 18 community-driven cases were structured as cooperatives, which are rooted in their communities through customer ownership, democratic governance and shared social values. </p>
<p>Community engagement is vital to opening and sustaining a new store in neighborhoods where residents are understandably skeptical of outside developers and worry about <a href="https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/attom-data-solutions-2019-grocery-store-battle/">gentrification and rising rents</a>. Cooperatives often adopt local hiring practices, <a href="https://cdi.coop/coop-cathy-coops-benefit-communities/">pay living wages</a> and help residents counteract <a href="https://civileats.com/2019/01/25/new-research-explores-the-ongoing-impact-of-racism-on-the-u-s-farming-landscape">inequities in the food system</a>. <a href="https://www.fci.coop/sites/default/files/Startup%20guide-02.2017.pdf">Their model</a>, in which a third of the cost of opening typically comes from member loans, ensures communities are literally invested in their new stores and their use. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.mandelagrocery.coop/">Mandela Co-op</a>, which opened in a West Oakland, California, food desert in 2009, is a great example of this. The worker-owned grocery store focuses on purchasing from farmers and food entrepreneurs of color. As a result of its success, the Mandela Co-op <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/food/article/Mandela-Grocery-Cooperative-marks-10-years-in-13959570.php?psid=mc7QM">is expanding</a> and supporting the local economy at the same time many commercial supermarkets are closing locations as the <a href="https://www.grocerydive.com/news/why-grocery-consolidation/535608/">grocery industry consolidates</a>.</p>
<p>Our study suggests policymakers and <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/action/doSearch?AllField=food+desert&ConceptID=">public health officials interested</a> in improving wellness in food deserts should take community ownership and involvement into account. </p>
<p>The success of a supermarket intervention is predicated on use, which may not happen without community buy-in. Supporting cooperatives is one way to ensure that shoppers show up.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Brinkley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Prodded by Michelle Obama and other government leaders, Walmart and other major US retailers vowed to build hundreds of stores in food deserts. What happened?Catherine Brinkley, Assistant Professor of Community and Regional Development, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1212322019-08-05T12:56:57Z2019-08-05T12:56:57ZWhy do so many working class Americans feel politics is pointless?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286658/original/file-20190801-169684-19ag93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Of Jennifer Silva's sample of 108 working-class people, over two-thirds didn't even vote in the 2016 election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Associated-Press-Domestic-News-Pennsylvania-Uni-/b81387d49de5da11af9f0014c2589dfb/151/0">AP Photo/Keith Srakocic</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In sociologist Jennifer Silva’s first book, “<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Coming_Up_Short.html?id=5iI53Z1w6p4C">Coming Up Short</a>,” she interviewed working-class young adults in Lowell, Mass., and Richmond, Virginia.</em></p>
<p><em>Most had a tough time earning decent wages. Many felt like they were in a perpetual state of limbo, unable to reach the traditional markers of adulthood: job, marriage, house, and kids. But Silva was surprised to learn that many blamed themselves for their situations and believed that relying on others could only result in disappointment.</em> </p>
<p><em>After the book was published, it bothered Silva that she never pressed her subjects further on their politics to see how they might be connected to their worldview.</em></p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286659/original/file-20190801-169706-c6pn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286659/original/file-20190801-169706-c6pn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286659/original/file-20190801-169706-c6pn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286659/original/file-20190801-169706-c6pn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286659/original/file-20190801-169706-c6pn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286659/original/file-20190801-169706-c6pn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286659/original/file-20190801-169706-c6pn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jennifer Silva.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bucknell.edu/images/Depts/Profiles2014/SilvaJennifer400.jpg">Bucknell</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Now, in a new book, “<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/were-still-here-9780190888046?cc=us&lang=en&">We’re Still Here: Pain and Politics in the Heart of America</a>,” she has made working-class politics her focus.</em> </p>
<p><em>Beginning in May 2015, Silva started conducting interviews in a once-thriving coal town in central Pennsylvania, which she calls “Coal Brook.” The timing was prescient: A month after she began her research, Donald Trump descended the escalator at Trump Tower and announced his candidacy for president.</em></p>
<p><em>Silva spent over a year interviewing townspeople. She gained their trust, forged relationships, and spent time in their homes and at community meetings. After years of declining prospects under both political parties, some of the townspeople she interviewed were drawn to Trump’s anti-establishment message. But for most, their politics had devolved into an abyss of cynicism that couldn’t even be penetrated by a politician <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/trump-rnc-speech-alone-fix-it/492557/">who promised to “fix” everything</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>In an interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Silva describes a community that is racially diverse, hardworking and politically aware. But its residents are also deeply distrustful and shoulder immense amounts of pain and alienation.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Can you talk a little bit about what inspired you to study working-class Americans?</strong> </p>
<p>I was the first person in my family to graduate from college, and I experienced some self-doubt and discomfort when I tried to integrate into the world of academia. </p>
<p>In my position between two worlds – growing up with more working-class roots, and then building a professional middle-class life – I would cringe whenever I saw upper middle-class people treat working-class people with casual condescension or indifference. It sometimes seemed like the very colleagues who most loudly proclaimed their commitment to social justice were the ones treating the administrative assistant like their personal secretary or complaining about the cost of their housekeeper. It made me really skeptical of whether people’s stated political beliefs were even a good predictor of how they treat people with less power and status. </p>
<p><strong>What was the hardest part of the research?</strong></p>
<p>Getting people to open up to me. I wasn’t from the area. This is the kind of place where if you knock on someone’s door, they’re not going to let you in. I started off talking to white people. I’d go to football games and addiction meetings to try to meet people, and I was able to get to be known as “so-and-so’s friend.” Then I realized I wanted to have a non-white group in my book, because there’s been an increase in Latino and black people in the area. So I had to find out how to get this population to trust me, because the white population and the minority population don’t overlap very much.</p>
<p><strong>You spent months conducting interviews. Then the election happened, and Trump won. All of a sudden, there was a lot of interest in the very sort of community you had just spent time in. What’s your take on the ensuing media coverage of these small towns?</strong></p>
<p>It seemed like there was one dominant story: older white men, angry and in pain, were feeling bad about not having jobs and blaming racial minorities or foreigners. </p>
<p>And an element of that certainly emerged in my research. But the overall picture was just so much more complex. One of the things that was very striking to me was how much distrust there was. Among everyone I interviewed – white, Latino, and black – there was a fierce distrust and hatred of politicians, a suspicion that politicians and big business were basically working together to take away the American Dream. Everyone was very critical of inequality. </p>
<p>So it wasn’t this idea of “dumb white people voting for billionaires because they don’t understand it’s against their interests.” Almost everyone was aware that the system is rigged against poor people. They blamed politicians for refusing to raise wages to a level people can live on. Many wanted higher taxes to support education. I heard a lot of that, across all of the different groups, and I didn’t read a lot of that in the articles about these communities. </p>
<p><strong>You interviewed 108 people and only 37 of them actually voted, with 26 voting for Trump. Of the 41 black or Latino people you spoke with, only four voted. So to me, one of the major stories wasn’t necessarily support for Trump. It was a refusal to participate in politics altogether.</strong></p>
<p>Two-thirds of the sample were nonvoters. They knew the election was happening but they just viewed political participation as pointless. They thought of it as a joke. And they said, “Look at what’s happened in my lifetime, it doesn’t really matter who’s been president.” </p>
<p>One of the critiques I heard a lot was that everything’s about money now. If you have money, your life is good. You can buy anything. But if you don’t have money, the system is stacked against you. I heard that from old white men. I heard that from young black women. And it was interesting, because it’s not untrue, right? If you kill someone and you’re rich you’re more likely to get off. </p>
<p>So I think for them it was almost like, “Well, if we participate, we’re just playing along and pretending. But we’re not naive. We know already that politicians are bought off by corporations. No one actually cares about us.”</p>
<p><strong>There’s that great story in the book where you showed up to an interview wearing your “I voted” sticker.</strong></p>
<p>He laughed at me! Like, “Why would you vote? Are you crazy?”</p>
<p><strong>And yet of those who voted, Trump did emerge as the clear favorite.</strong></p>
<p>Well, Trump and Bernie Sanders. But Sanders wasn’t an option in the end. The general take on Trump was, “We like Trump’s personality, we like his aggressiveness, we like how he doesn’t care about the rules.” And then they liked Bernie Sanders for his authenticity and his heart. But for many who even ended up voting for Trump, they still didn’t think it would matter if they voted.</p>
<p><strong>Where does this disillusionment come from?</strong></p>
<p>There’s a sense of betrayal by a number of social institutions – education, the workplace, the military – all of these things that they thought they could trust, but, for one reason or another, ended up disappointing them.</p>
<p>So they turned inward. No one was really looking for external collective strategies changing the world. Many wanted to simply prove that they didn’t have to rely on other people. There was this sense that any kind of redemption is only going to come out of your own efforts. And then you’ll see some blame other people who don’t seem to support themselves.</p>
<p><strong>Before and after the 2016 election, J.D. Vance, with the publication of his memoir, “<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Hillbilly_Elegy.html?id=bKmpCgAAQBAJ">Hillbilly Elegy</a>,” was held up in the mainstream media as an oracle for dispossessed rural Americans. But in your book, you vehemently disagree with his worldview.</strong></p>
<p>Vance seemed to look at other people in his community and think that the reason they were suffering was because of their own choices – that they weren’t really strong enough to face the truth about themselves, that they had to stop blaming the government and corporations and actually take responsibility. </p>
<p>And that just wasn’t the story that I heard. I heard a lot of self-blame and a lot of people who wanted to take responsibility for their own fate. There was a lot of soul searching and a lot of pain. Vance makes it seem like everyone just needs to be like him – a lone hero who escapes his difficult past on his own. It’s not that simple or easy. </p>
<p>Can the pain people feel be used as a bridge to bring people together? That’s how I end my book. And I saw signs of it. Families suffering from addiction were coming together and wondering, how can we change the ways that doctors prescribe medicine? Or how can we challenge pharmaceutical companies to stop making these medications that get our children addicted? Can we get the police to help addicts instead of arresting them?</p>
<p><strong>That sounds like the stirrings of political mobilization. But what’s the biggest obstacle that’s preventing working class voters from organizing en masse?</strong></p>
<p>I think that it’s the absence of what you could call “mediating institutions.” The people in my book have a lot of critical and smart ideas. But they don’t have a lot of ways to actually connect their individual voices. So they don’t have a church group or a club that they would join that would then give them political tools or a louder voice. And I don’t even know if they would join one if these did exist, because of their distrust of institutions. So it just ends up being turned inward rather than outward.</p>
<p><strong>Within academia, what are some of the most common misconceptions you encounter when it comes to working-class politics?</strong> </p>
<p>I have heard some liberal academics talk about how self-defeating and misinformed working-class white people are. They seem to believe that if these people just knew the facts, they would change their votes immediately. Or they dismiss all working-class white people as angry and racist.</p>
<p>The working-class people I met were often radically critical of inequality and deeply skeptical about whether we live in a meritocracy. It was important to me to show that the people in my book of all races are creative and thoughtful – that they arrive at their positions by piecing together their histories and experiences in meaningful ways. </p>
<p>Sometimes these ways are destructive and divisive, and sometimes they have the potential to be transformative and healing. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121232/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A sociologist spent over a year interviewing black, white and Latino residents of a declining coal town in central Pennsylvania, plumbing the sources of their political disillusionment.Nick Lehr, Arts + Culture EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065112018-11-07T18:38:52Z2018-11-07T18:38:52ZColoradans reject restrictions on drilling distances from homes and schools<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244388/original/file-20181107-74760-3m0vfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fracking was on the ballot in Colorado's midterm elections.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Colorado/7d760509d0864573a2c876234f001e2a/4/0">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Coloradans rejected a <a href="https://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/Initiatives/titleBoard/results/2017-2018/97Results.html">ballot initiative</a> that would have required new oil and gas projects to be set back at least 2,500 feet from occupied buildings. The measure – known as Proposition 112 and supported by environmentalists – would have marked a major change from the state’s current limits: 500 feet from homes and 1,000 feet from schools. </p>
<p>Voters also said no to <a href="https://www.cpr.org/news/story/oil-and-gas-funded-just-compensation-amendment-makes-2018-ballot">Amendment 74</a>. That measure would have changed the state constitution to let property owners sue local governments over regulations, such as new drilling rules, if those measures lowered property values or reduced revenue for landowners. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9cA_KYAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">As sociologists</a> who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yTQGU9UAAAAJ&hl=en">have researched</a> oil and gas drilling in the communities that host it for the past seven years, we think that local governments and Coloradans need to have more say over where drilling occurs. To us, given the concerns we’ve heard from homeowners in our research, the defeat of the fracking measure demonstrates the industry’s economic power and political clout.</p>
<p>Big oil and gas companies like Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Noble Energy Inc. and PDC Energy heavily backed efforts to defeat the anti-fracking measure and joined forces with the <a href="https://durangoherald.com/articles/241355">Colorado Farm Bureau</a>, which represents farmers, ranchers and other agricultural interests, to support the amendment. </p>
<p>The community-based organizations that got Proposition 112 on the ballot spent about US$1.6 million on this campaign, while <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado_Proposition_112,_Minimum_Distance_Requirements_for_New_Oil,_Gas,_and_Fracking_Projects_Initiative_(2018)">the opposition’s budget</a> topped $31 million. </p>
<p><iframe id="0zgBP" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0zgBP/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Fracking boom</h2>
<p>Domestic <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-has-the-us-fracking-boom-affected-air-pollution-in-shale-areas-66190">oil and gas production has soared</a> over the past decade, leading the U.S. to become the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36292">top global producer</a> of those fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Technological innovations, especially the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/uog/process-unconventional-natural-gas-production">hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling</a> commonly called fracking, have fueled this growth. So has <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/us-energy-dominance-markets-trump-policy-2017/">federal deregulation</a>.</p>
<p>Partly because fracking and related industrial processes often occur close to homes, schools and other occupied buildings, the <a href="https://coloradopolitics.com/oil-gas-ballot-measure/">debate over Proposition 112</a> was contentious.</p>
<p>Opponents, mainly <a href="https://www.protectcolorado.com">funded by industry groups</a>, argued that stricter rules would mean less state tax revenue, job losses and <a href="https://www.oilandgasinvestor.com/colorado-initiative-ban-drilling-costing-producers-billions-1715751">weakened private property rights</a>. Proponents expressed concerns about <a href="https://source.colostate.edu/garfield-county-air-quality-study-results-presented-to-public/">air pollution</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/10/fracking-earthquakes-oklahoma-colorado-gas-companies">earthquakes</a>, <a href="https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2016/12/13/epa-fracking-can-impact-drinking-water/">water well contamination</a> and <a href="http://www.cpr.org/news/story/a-year-after-the-deadly-firestone-home-explosion-emotions-are-mixed">explosions</a> to explain why they wanted the public to have more sway.</p>
<p>But many state governments have tried to stymie the attempts of communities to gain this power. For example, Colorado’s <a href="http://www.cpr.org/news/story/colorado-supreme-court-rules-against-cities-fracking-limits">Supreme Court ruled in 2016</a> that local communities have no right to regulate where drilling occurs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An oil storage tank alongside a housing development near Firestone, Colorado.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Fracking-Colorado/f7b1fb77e7e04cd7993beaa6f374467e/3/0">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Regulations and leasing</h2>
<p>Members of the public and local governments have <a href="https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2016/09/28/pa-supreme-court-rules-with-environmentalists-over-remaining-issues-in-act-13/">successfully challenged</a> limits on local control over fracking in court before. For example, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court affirmed the power of communities to regulate the oil and gas industry locally when it ruled in 2016 that parts of a law known as <a href="https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/tag/act-13/">Act 13 were unconstitutional</a>.</p>
<p>In that instance, the court ruled against a provision that barred doctors from sharing information about possible toxic exposure if they were given access to industry information about the chemicals used in fracking. It also blocked the enforcement of a measure that allowed the use of eminent domain to site natural gas storage facilities.</p>
<p>But to our knowledge, Colorado’s ballot initiative marked the first time voters have tried to control the setback distances of oil and gas facilities from rivers, homes, schools and other buildings in their communities. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tQCEZmwvhBw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Actor and activist Mark Ruffalo appeared in an ad urging Colorado voters to support the fracking measure.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Negotiating terms</h2>
<p>Regulating oil and gas leases on private land is hard partly because they are privately negotiated contracts between companies and landowners. To learn more about what happens during these negotiations, we interviewed more than 100 Coloradans and Pennsylvanians about their experiences negotiating these drilling leases.</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soy094">recently published study</a>, we found that these people feel inconvenienced at best. Most told us they felt exploited and mistreated due to the leasing experience despite having made money off of leasing their land or <a href="https://geology.com/articles/mineral-rights.shtml">mineral rights</a>.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08941920.2014.945056?journalCode=usnr20">scholars who look at how drilling affects local communities</a> argue that this process empowers private property owners because they play a direct role in deciding the terms of these negotiations. And some of these folks can even <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=7wXZE1uuJ8o">get rich</a> from fracking lease earnings.</p>
<p>Certainly, landowners – including some of the people we interviewed – have <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/03/15/592890524/millions-own-gas-and-oil-under-their-land-heres-why-only-some-strike-it-rich">earned income</a> from these contracts, though the amounts can vary from a few dollars to thousands of dollars per acre. But the overwhelming majority of the Pennsylvanians and Coloradans who met with us in their kitchen tables, backyards and farms described feeling disempowered when they signed fracking leases.</p>
<p>During private negotiations, landmen – the company representatives who try to convince people to sell or lease their land and mineral rights – discouraged neighbors from teaming up to get a better deal or even talking with one another about the terms they’re considering, interviewees told us.</p>
<p>In some situations, when residents negotiated for better-than-average lease terms, landmen made them sign nondisclosure agreements that legally forbade sharing information.</p>
<h2>Same land, different owners</h2>
<p>Occasionally in Pennsylvania and almost always in Colorado, these fracked <a href="https://www.blm.gov/programs/energy-and-minerals/mining-and-minerals/split-estate">properties belong</a> to two or more parties. One owns the surface and someone else possesses the rights to whatever minerals lie beneath it.</p>
<p>And, in Colorado, surface landowners are legally required to provide mineral owners <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2016/03/05/mineral-owners-assert-property-rights-in-colorados-oil-and-gas-fight/">access to their resources</a>.</p>
<p>Many people we interviewed owned land but not the rights to the minerals below it. With <a href="https://cogcc.state.co.us/documents/about/Help/Surface%20Owners%20Brochure.pdf">limited power</a> to stave off drilling in their backyards or on their farms, the surface rights owners we interviewed said they felt like “sitting ducks” and “unprotected.” They told us that they saw attempting to keep an oil and gas company off their land as “futile.”</p>
<p>“John,” a farmer who lives south of Denver, tried to fight the placement of a pipeline that split his farm into two less usable pieces. When he tried to fight the pipeline placement, he told us, he overheard industry representatives speculating that they simply needed to outspend his opposition.</p>
<p>That appears to be the <a href="https://capitalandmain.com/energy-giants-choose-nuclear-option-in-elections-biggest-fight-over-fossil-fuel-1030">strategy that oil and gas companies followed</a> in their successful quest to block Proposition 112.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244353/original/file-20181107-74772-1ttqlvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yard sign for foes of Clorado’s fracking measure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Ballot-Issues-Colorado-Energy/5a2dd29097254dd8908a216c1ac169bf/2/0">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mineral rights</h2>
<p>When the people we interviewed owned the mineral rights tied to their property but did not want to lease them, an energy company could pursue them through a state statute allowing a practice known as “<a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/forced-pooling-when-landowners-cant-say-no-to-drilling">forced pooling</a>” in both Pennsylvania and Colorado.</p>
<p>It makes leasing mineral rights mandatory, leaving landowners with no way to say no when a company wants to frack their property.</p>
<p>We also heard about the personal costs participants experienced after they signed leases. Ranchers explained they lost productive pastureland. Other residents believed they became ill because of air pollution. And many farmers described lasting damage to idyllic homesteads.</p>
<p>Even when these factors violated their leases or laws governing oil and gas practices, nearly all lease signers we interviewed told us they had a hard time getting oil and gas operators with whom they’d signed leases to <a href="https://www.academia.edu/15605003/Energy_Crime_Harm_and_Problematic_State_Response_in_Colorado_A_Case_of_the_Fox_Guarding_the_Hen_House">address any violations</a> of those contracts.</p>
<p>To “Connor,” a homesteader in southern Colorado, the negotiation process felt “like having a second job.” At times,“ he told us, "it was absolutely overwhelming. I think we did absolutely everything we could as private citizens to try and mitigate the impacts and in the end, it was futile.”</p>
<p>To defeat Proposition 112, the oil and gas industry saturated the local media with messaging intended to make voters <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGWa1xPR2e8">fear its potential negative economic consequences</a>. That 43 percent of Colorado voters voted for the measure anyway indicates that a large share of the public wants to protect public health and the environment with stronger policies.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-frack-so-close-to-me-colorado-voters-will-weigh-in-on-drilling-distances-from-homes-and-schools-102544">Sept. 26, 2018</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106511/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Malin has received funding from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, the Rural Sociological Society, and the CSU Water Center. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tara Opsal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Big oil and gas companies spent far more fighting this ballot initiative than the measure’s supporters did.Stephanie Malin, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Colorado State UniversityTara Opsal, Associate Professor of Sociology, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/991992018-10-17T10:27:28Z2018-10-17T10:27:28ZHow monitoring local water supplies can build community<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240659/original/file-20181015-165888-csozoh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Volunteers prepare to take flow measurements on Muddy Creek.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre County Pennsylvania Senior Environmental Corps</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Water insecurity is a <a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/03/world-water-day-water-crisis-explained/">touchstone for 2018</a>. Our planet isn’t running out of water, but various kinds of mismanagement have led to local water crises <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/17825HLPW_Outcome.pdf">across the planet</a>, directly threatening millions of people. </p>
<p>Ensuring water quality requires regular testing, protecting source water, monitoring and repairing distribution systems, treatment plants and other infrastructure, and developing the ability to recycle water and desalinate salt water. These activities require many types of specialists. But they can also benefit from the direct participation of engaged citizens, who themselves can also benefit from getting involved with this work.</p>
<p>Most of my career has <a href="https://jcarroll.ist.psu.edu">focused on information sciences and technology</a>. Over the past 40 years, I have investigated cases in which people creatively mastered information and technology that was poorly designed relative to their needs, or applied technology to problems it was not originally designed for, such as strengthening local heritage, community governance or collaborative learning. I have learned that making technology effective often requires the creative engagement of everyone who is affected by it.</p>
<p>Contemporary reports on failing water systems tend to overlook the critical roles that citizens can play in addressing environmental challenges at the local level. Water systems are <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/making-use">human-technology interactions</a>. Engaged and informed volunteers who are committed to protecting water quality are as critical to a successful water system as pumps and filters.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240660/original/file-20181015-165897-14txps1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240660/original/file-20181015-165897-14txps1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240660/original/file-20181015-165897-14txps1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240660/original/file-20181015-165897-14txps1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240660/original/file-20181015-165897-14txps1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240660/original/file-20181015-165897-14txps1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240660/original/file-20181015-165897-14txps1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240660/original/file-20181015-165897-14txps1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Measuring chemical parameters of water samples.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre County Pennsylvania Senior Environmental Corps</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Taking responsibility for water systems</h2>
<p>In the course of a research project on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0144929X.2018.1432686">citizen-initiated health collaborations</a>, I learned that people in my own community in central Pennsylvania were deeply involved in monitoring local water quality. Many Americans probably think of this as a job for state or local government agencies. But it also can be a community engagement activity, much like working at a food bank, driving for Meals on Wheels or building homes with Habitat for Humanity. </p>
<p>This does not mean the work is any less about environmental protection. Rather, it incorporates environmental protection into the core of <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jhsem.2015.12.issue-3/jhsem-2014-0071/jhsem-2014-0071.xml">hyperlocal community work</a> – the actions people take locally to strengthen their communities. </p>
<p>Roughly 100,000 people live in the Spring Creek watershed in central Pennsylvania. Spring Creek is a well-known trout fishery, but the region faces ongoing water quality challenges, including agricultural runoff, stormwater silt and invasive species. It also has legacy pollution sources, including abandoned clay and coal mines and a chemical plant that was a <a href="https://theconversation.com/cutting-superfunds-budget-will-slow-toxic-waste-cleanups-threatening-public-health-and-property-values-74787">Superfund</a> site in the 1980s. Future challenges include a threat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/hydraulic-fracturing-components-in-marcellus-groundwater-likely-from-surface-operations-not-wells-48873">runoff from Marcellus Shale gas drilling</a>.</p>
<p>Several dozen local groups – including nonprofits, municipal entities and regional water and sewer authorities – carry out a wide variety of water quality testing programs. Each group gathers and organizes its own data sets, but they also coordinate through overlapping memberships, arrangements to share equipment, space, funding and data, and initiatives involving multiple townships and boroughs, which the groups sometimes create themselves. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240656/original/file-20181015-165900-1w9urhm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240656/original/file-20181015-165900-1w9urhm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240656/original/file-20181015-165900-1w9urhm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240656/original/file-20181015-165900-1w9urhm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240656/original/file-20181015-165900-1w9urhm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240656/original/file-20181015-165900-1w9urhm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240656/original/file-20181015-165900-1w9urhm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240656/original/file-20181015-165900-1w9urhm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Spring Creek is a stream in the West Branch of the Susquehanna River watershed. Within this 146-square-mile watershed, there are at least seven springs that each produce more than 1 million gallons per day of clean, cold water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.springcreekwatershedatlas.org/single-post/2017/05/04/Aquatic-Resources-of-Spring-Creek-An-Historical-Perspective">Spring Creek Watershed Atlas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Citizen water monitoring connects communities</h2>
<p>Although these groups have only a few hundred members in total, they are involved in many activities. They advise municipalities and the public on watershed issues, such as development proposals. They also coordinate planning among towns, conduct outreach programs at public schools, observe and collect samples at field sites, and interact with testing laboratories and government agencies. </p>
<p>Some groups have developed data sets and analyses that are curated and published online or available by request. They also have produced a <a href="https://www.springcreekwatershedatlas.org">community watershed atlas</a>, which explains what the watershed is, how it works and how it serves the people who live in it.</p>
<p>Several groups that mainly collect data consist almost entirely of older adults. For example, members of the <a href="http://www.ccpasec.org">Pennsylvania Senior Environmental Corps</a> work in teams of four to six, regularly visiting sites throughout the watershed to measure about 40 data points per site, including water chemistry, stream flow characteristics and counts of macro invertebrates. </p>
<p>Members of <a href="https://springcreektu.org">Trout Unlimited</a> focus specifically on indicators of healthy fish populations, such as identifying trout spawning nests. This involves regular physical work and social interaction, so the groups <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0305750X9600023X">coproduce</a> better community and personal health as they protect local water resources. </p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/232080726" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Trout Unlimited volunteers work to identify high-quality trout streams in Pennsylvania and target them for protection.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are <a href="https://pawatersheds.org/membership/watershed-groups/">350 local nonprofit water quality groups in Pennsylvania alone</a>. These volunteer groups could be seen as a transitional workaround whose work will eventually be replaced by remote sensor networks. But that is a narrow view of what they do for local communities and for people. Automation will not engage citizens in learning about water resources, or provide meaningful and rigorous tasks that motivate them to be active outdoors. </p>
<h2>Leveraging citizen water activism more effectively</h2>
<p>These water monitoring initiatives are sustainable and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805336115">valuable</a>. They are a hyperlocal variety of <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1251554">citizen science</a> – citizens organizing and carrying out water monitoring activities in their own communities. </p>
<p>Their work produces more than data. It strengthens trust and social capital throughout the community, and makes people more aware of local water challenges. It cultivates critical environmental knowledge and skills, and gives volunteers meaningful work. </p>
<p>But it could be even more beneficial. My Penn State colleagues and I are working with citizens in central Pennsylvania to design and develop a community water quality data platform, which would integrate and amplify local groups’ and government agencies’ diverse data sets, making it easier to visualize and analyze water quality data. </p>
<p>Clean water groups could use this tool to explore scenarios, such as enhancing <a href="https://extension.psu.edu/riparian-buffers-for-wildlife">riparian buffers</a> – planted zones near stream banks – to mitigate impacts from springtime agricultural runoff or summertime thermal pollution episodes. Using data this way could make watershed events and patterns more accessible to residents, and more effective as opportunities for learning and engagement.</p>
<p>This platform could make it easier for citizens to become knowledgeable about water resources, and more generally, about data visualization and analysis and data-driven thinking. We do not think fixing failing water systems should be up to citizens, but we believe it is better for everyone if citizens are informed and engaged about their water supplies. It would be nice to assume that responsible authorities will ensure our water is clean and safe, but examples like the drinking water crisis in Flint, Michigan, show that this is not always true. </p>
<p>In Spring Creek, and probably many other locations, promising local networks like this are hidden in plain sight. Once they are identified, communities can leverage them. And others can work to foster them where they do not yet exist.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99199/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John M. Carroll receives funding from the US National Science Foundation.
In the past I received funding from Apple, Intel, Microsoft, the Society of Technical Communication, the US Department of Education, the US Office of Naval Research, the Hitachi Foundation, and the Knight Foundation.</span></em></p>When people form local networks to take care of resources such as drinking water, they strengthen their communities. Technology can support these efforts and promote learning and innovation.John M. Carroll, Distinguished Professor of Information Sciences and Technology, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1025442018-09-26T10:20:59Z2018-09-26T10:20:59ZDon’t frack so close to me: Colorado voters will weigh in on drilling distances from homes and schools<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236699/original/file-20180917-158246-17jau3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In Colorado, fracking often occurs right next to where people live.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tara O'Conner Shelley</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Coloradans will vote on a <a href="https://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/Initiatives/titleBoard/results/2017-2018/97Results.html">ballot initiative</a> in November that requires new oil and gas projects to be set back at least 2,500 feet from occupied buildings. If approved, the measure – known as both Initiative 97 and Proposition 112 – would mark a major change from their state’s current limits: 500 feet from homes and 1,000 feet from schools. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9cA_KYAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">As sociologists</a> who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yTQGU9UAAAAJ&hl=en">have researched</a> oil and gas drilling in the communities that host it for the past seven years, we think this measure would provide local governments and Coloradans more say over where drilling occurs and enhance the rights of those who live near these sites.</p>
<h2>Fracking boom</h2>
<p>Domestic <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-has-the-us-fracking-boom-affected-air-pollution-in-shale-areas-66190">oil and gas production has soared</a> over the past decade, leading the U.S. to become the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36292">top global producer</a> of those fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Technological innovations, especially the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/uog/process-unconventional-natural-gas-production">hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling</a>, commonly called fracking, have fueled this growth. So has <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/us-energy-dominance-markets-trump-policy-2017/">federal deregulation</a>.</p>
<p>Partly because fracking and related industrial processes often occurs close to homes, schools and other occupied buildings, the <a href="https://coloradopolitics.com/oil-gas-ballot-measure/">debate over Proposition 112</a> is contentious.</p>
<p>Opponents, especially <a href="https://www.protectcolorado.com">those funded by industry groups</a>, argue that stricter rules will mean less state tax revenue, job losses and <a href="https://www.oilandgasinvestor.com/colorado-initiative-ban-drilling-costing-producers-billions-1715751">weakened private property rights</a>. Proponents express concerns about <a href="https://source.colostate.edu/garfield-county-air-quality-study-results-presented-to-public/">air pollution</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/10/fracking-earthquakes-oklahoma-colorado-gas-companies">earthquakes</a>, <a href="https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2016/12/13/epa-fracking-can-impact-drinking-water/">water well contamination</a> and <a href="http://www.cpr.org/news/story/a-year-after-the-deadly-firestone-home-explosion-emotions-are-mixed">explosions</a> to explain why they want the public to have more sway.</p>
<p>But many state governments have tried to stymie the attempts of communities to gain this power. For example, Colorado’s <a href="http://www.cpr.org/news/story/colorado-supreme-court-rules-against-cities-fracking-limits">Supreme Court ruled in 2016</a> that local communities have no right to regulate where drilling occurs. </p>
<p>And industry-funded groups and the <a href="https://durangoherald.com/articles/241355">Colorado Farm Bureau</a>, which represents farmers, ranchers and other agricultural interests, are countering this electoral effort to restrict drilling with their own measure. Known as <a href="https://www.cpr.org/news/story/oil-and-gas-funded-just-compensation-amendment-makes-2018-ballot">Amendment 74</a>, it would force any city or county government that limits drilling to compensate property owners if new setback rules were to lower property values or reduce revenue from fracking leases. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236702/original/file-20180917-158231-10022d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An oil storage tank alongside a housing development near Firestone, Colo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Fracking-Colorado/f7b1fb77e7e04cd7993beaa6f374467e/3/0">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Regulations and leasing</h2>
<p>Members of the public and local governments have <a href="https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2016/09/28/pa-supreme-court-rules-with-environmentalists-over-remaining-issues-in-act-13/">successfully challenged</a> limits on local control over fracking in court before. For example, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court affirmed the power of communities to regulate the oil and gas industry locally when it ruled in 2016 that parts of a law known as <a href="https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/tag/act-13/">Act 13 were unconstitutional</a>.</p>
<p>In that instance, the court ruled against a provision that barred doctors from sharing information about possible toxic exposure if they were given access to industry information about the chemicals used in fracking. It also blocked the enforcement of a measure that allowed the use of eminent domain to site natural gas storage facilities.</p>
<p>But as far as we can tell, Colorado’s ballot initiative marks the first time voters can potentially control the set-back distances of oil and gas facilities from rivers, homes, schools and other buildings in their communities.</p>
<h2>Negotiating terms</h2>
<p>Regulating oil and gas leases on private land is hard partly because they are privately negotiated contracts between companies and landowners. To learn more about what happens during these negotiations, we interviewed more than 100 Coloradans and Pennsylvanians about their experiences negotiating these drilling leases.</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soy094">recently published study</a>, we found that these people feel inconvenienced at best. Most told us they felt exploited and mistreated due to the leasing experience despite having made money off of leasing their land or <a href="https://geology.com/articles/mineral-rights.shtml">mineral rights</a>.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08941920.2014.945056?journalCode=usnr20">scholars who look at how drilling affects local communities</a> argue that this process empowers private property owners because they play a direct role in deciding the terms of these negotiations. And some of these folks can even <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=7wXZE1uuJ8o">get rich</a> from fracking lease earnings.</p>
<p>Certainly, landowners – including some of the people we interviewed – have <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/03/15/592890524/millions-own-gas-and-oil-under-their-land-heres-why-only-some-strike-it-rich">earned income</a> from these contracts, though the amounts can vary from a few dollars to thousands of dollars per acre. But the overwhelming majority of the Pennsylvanians and Coloradans who met with us in their kitchen tables, backyards and farms described feeling disempowered when they signed fracking leases.</p>
<p>“I knew zip about gas production,” explained a man who operates a small-scale dairy farm in northeastern Pennsylvania and we are calling “Anderson” to honor our promise of confidentiality. “We had no time, we either made a decision to do it or not do it.” </p>
<p>During private negotiations, landmen – the company representatives who try to convince people to sell or lease their land and mineral rights – discouraged neighbors from teaming up to get a better deal or even talking with one another about the terms they’re considering, interviewees told us.</p>
<p>In some situations, when residents negotiated for better-than-average lease terms, landmen made them sign nondisclosure agreements that legally forbade sharing information.</p>
<h2>Same land, different owners</h2>
<p>Occasionally in Pennsylvania and almost always in Colorado, these fracked <a href="https://www.blm.gov/programs/energy-and-minerals/mining-and-minerals/split-estate">properties belong</a> to two or more parties. One owns the surface and someone else possesses the rights to whatever minerals lie beneath it.</p>
<p>And, in Colorado, surface landowners are legally required to provide mineral owners <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2016/03/05/mineral-owners-assert-property-rights-in-colorados-oil-and-gas-fight/">access to their resources</a>.</p>
<p>Many people we interviewed owned land but not the rights to the minerals below it. With <a href="https://cogcc.state.co.us/documents/about/Help/Surface%20Owners%20Brochure.pdf">limited power</a> to stave off drilling in their backyards or on their farms, the surface rights owners we interviewed said they felt like “sitting ducks” and “unprotected.” They told us that they saw attempting to keep an oil and gas company off their land as “futile.”</p>
<p>“John,” a farmer who lives south of Denver, tried to fight the placement of a pipeline that split his farm into two less usable pieces. When he tried to fight the pipeline placement, he told us, he overheard industry representatives speculating that they simply needed to outspend his opposition.</p>
<h2>Mineral rights</h2>
<p>When the people we interviewed owned the mineral rights tied to their property but did not want to lease them, an energy company could pursue them through a state statute allowing a practice known as “<a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/forced-pooling-when-landowners-cant-say-no-to-drilling">forced pooling</a>” in both Pennsylvania and Colorado.</p>
<p>It makes leasing mineral rights mandatory, leaving landowners with no way to say no when a company wants to frack their property.</p>
<p>We also heard about the personal costs participants experienced after they signed leases. Ranchers explained they lost productive pastureland. Other residents believed they became ill because of air pollution. And many farmers described lasting damage to idyllic homesteads.</p>
<p>Even when these factors violated their leases or laws governing oil and gas practices, nearly all lease signers we interviewed told us they had a hard time getting oil and gas operators with whom they’d signed leases to <a href="https://www.academia.edu/15605003/Energy_Crime_Harm_and_Problematic_State_Response_in_Colorado_A_Case_of_the_Fox_Guarding_the_Hen_House">address any violations</a> of those contracts.</p>
<p>To “Connor,” a homesteader in southern Colorado, the negotiation process felt “like having a second job.” At times,“ he told us, "it was absolutely overwhelming. I think we did absolutely everything we could as private citizens to try and mitigate the impacts and in the end, it was futile.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102544/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Malin has received funding from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, the Rural Sociological Society, and the CSU Water Center.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tara Opsal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Landowners told researchers that they lacked the knowledge, time and money to advocate for themselves, their financial interests and their property in negotiations over drilling leases.Tara Opsal, Associate Professor of Sociology, Colorado State UniversityStephanie Malin, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.