tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/post-trump-33297/articlesPost-Trump – The Conversation2023-08-31T14:42:31Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2125702023-08-31T14:42:31Z2023-08-31T14:42:31ZWho’s Vivek Ramaswamy? He’s the Trump 2.0 candidate who’s making waves in the Republican primaries<p>The New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/05/us/politics/vivek-ramaswamy.html">described</a> him as promising “to exert breathtaking power in ways that Donald Trump never did”. An article for <a href="https://time.com/6265036/vivek-ramaswamy-trump-defense-indictment/">Time</a> magazine called him a “rockstar for those who think cancel culture is threatening every corner of American life”.</p>
<p>Well-spoken, polemical and supremely self-assured, it’s no surprise that the Trump-loving Vivek Ramaswamy has emerged as the new <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6b9689a6-0dec-41b9-a5d0-50ceba4b3bd4">darling</a> of the Republican presidential primary field.</p>
<p>Coming out of the <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6335464873112">first GOP debate in late August</a>, where he oratorically <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/vivek-ramaswamy-grabs-spotlight-at-first-republican-primary-debate-b168dd06">dazzled</a> (and also drew <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/vivek-ramaswamy-republican-debate-civics-test-fail-rcna101625">sharp criticism</a>) after a combination of pre-scripted lines and impromptu take-downs, Ramaswamy is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/debate-republican-takeaways-president-gop-trump-ramaswamy-christie-f38e0aa189ad85f347f97b1b6bea4c53">gaining ground in the polls</a> — and is <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2023/08/25/vivek-ramaswamy-speaks-to-overflow-iowa-crowds-after-republican-debate/70680509007/">reportedly</a> seeing a “surge of Iowans flock to his campaign stops,” ahead of the state’s important caucus, due on January 15 2024. </p>
<p>Nationally, Ramaswamy has now <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/">cruised</a> into third place in the Republican race, at 10%, according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages, and is hoping to overtake Florida governor Ron DeSantis (14%), once seen as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ron-desantis-the-florida-governor-who-may-steal-the-republican-nomination-from-under-his-mentor-donald-trumps-nose-194423">prohibitive choice to rival Donald Trump</a>. While still some 40 points out of first place, it’s a sudden uptick for a candidate who was, until recently, a virtual unknown.</p>
<p>But at just 38 years old, can this billionaire rookie politician of Indian descent, who — according to his own <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/24/ramaswamy-obama-line-gop-debate/">admission</a> — is a “skinny guy with a funny last name,” crack Trump’s insurmountable lead, much less foil his coronation?</p>
<p>Ramaswamy is a self-styled “<a href="https://wcfcourier.com/news/local/government-politics/ramaswamy-talks-in-waterloo-after-debate/article_929eefa0-4464-11ee-a04b-e7b9c852803c.html">clear outsider</a>” who’s never served in government. A graduate of Harvard and Yale Law School, he cut his teeth at a Wall Street hedge fund, before founding a multi-billion-dollar pharmaceutical firm. As “one of the richest thirty-somethings” in the nation, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnhyatt/2023/08/21/how-vivek-ramaswamy-became-a-billionaire/">according to Forbes</a>, Ramaswamy has lived, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-courts-affirmative-action-decision-step-forward-gop/story?id=100539615">in his words</a>, “the American dream”.</p>
<p>Ramaswamy, however, isn’t your typical socially liberal Ivy League graduate. He can <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/08/12/vivek-ramaswamy-gop-rapping-eminem-iowa-state-fair-nr-vpx.cnn">rap like Eminem</a>. And he’s <a href="https://www.nixonfoundation.org/2023/08/vivek-ramaswamy-at-the-nixon-library/">called</a> former US president Richard Nixon “the most underappreciated president of our modern history in this country, probably in all of American history”.</p>
<p>More importantly, he’s a chest-thumping, Maga-type who, despite <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ramaswamy-deems-trump-best-president-21st-century-gop-hopefuls-side-pence">praising</a> Trump as “the best president of the 21st century,” is running to beat the ex-president so he can take the Trumpist agenda “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/04/03/vivek-ramaswamy-2024-presidential-gop/">much further</a>”.</p>
<h2>The anti-wokester</h2>
<p>The author of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Woke-Inc-Corporate-Americas-Justice/dp/1546090789">Woke, Inc</a>. and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/s?k=nation+of+victims&hvadid=616991208878&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9006672&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=3178780336399106094&hvtargid=kwd-372094379727&hydadcr=24658_13611734&tag=googhydr-20&ref=pd_sl_2gqibjhtln_e">Nation of Victims</a>, Ramaswamy brags that he’s the <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11787751/Who-Vivek-Ramaswamy-anti-woke-hedge-fund-millionaire-running-president.html">original anti-woke candidate</a>. A self-branded “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/06/vivek-ramaswamy-gop-nationalist-00100395">non-white nationalist</a>” he speaks stridently against the modern progressive movement.</p>
<p>Ramaswamy <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/18/ramaswamy-pledges-to-draw-voters-of-color-from-dems-00111956">declares</a> that he would appeal to voters of all colours and is fond of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meet-press-august-27-2023-n1307092">paraphrasing</a> John Roberts, US supreme court chief justice, who has said: “The right answer to stop discrimination on the basis of race … is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.”</p>
<p>Ramaswamy <a href="https://www.concordmonitor.com/Vivek-Ramaswamy-Concord-GOP-Event-51835246">says</a> that he’s running for president to unite the country under a new “American Revolution” based on “1776 ideals”. Many of his policies, like the revolution he seeks to provoke, are decidedly counter-establishment.</p>
<p>For instance, Ramaswamy waxes poetically about <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/24/vivek-ramaswamy-policy-gop-candidate/">laying off 75% of the federal workforce</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/vivek-ramaswamy-lays-plans-eliminate-federal-agencies-fbi-rcna95409">taking a sledgehammer to US government agencies</a> like the FBI and the Department of Education, and <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=QDIeEAAAQBAJ&pg=PT89&lpg=PT89&dq=%2525252525252522managerial+class%2525252525252522+and+%25252525252525E2%2525252525252580%252525252525259Cspreading+like+a+plague%25252525252525E2%2525252525252580%252525252525259D&source=bl&ots=auFMhs4eKd&sig=ACfU3U1A75mdGPUzntNbqazJHNS9SwJWag&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiVoczuzYCBAxWsk4kEHTuSAm4Q6AF6BAgNEAM%25252525252523v=onepage&q=%2525252525252522managerial%2525252525252520class%2525252525252522%2525252525252520and%2525252525252520%25252525252525E2%2525252525252580%252525252525259Cspreading%2525252525252520like%2525252525252520a%2525252525252520plague%25252525252525E2%2525252525252580%252525252525259D&f=false">defeating the “managerial class”</a> that’s “spreading like a plague” across society.</p>
<p>Ramaswamy’s agenda also includes a number of political non-starters — for example, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vivek-ramaswamy-wants-civics-tests-young-voters-18-to-24/">requiring</a> every US citizen to pass the same civics exam that immigrants do in order to vote, before age 25.</p>
<p>Unlike most millennials, Ramaswamy has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/25/vivek-ramaswamy-says-hoax-agenda-kills-more-people-than-climate-change/">pilloried</a> the climate change agenda as a “hoax”. “Drill, frack, burn coal, and embrace nuclear” is his unapologetic <a href="https://rollcall.com/2023/08/24/transcript-gop-presidential-hopefuls-debate-in-milwaukee/">solution</a> for America’s energy challenges.</p>
<p>On immigration, Ramaswamy favours ending America’s <a href="https://www.usa.gov/green-card-lottery">“green card” lottery system</a>, which annually makes available 50,000 visas to migrants, and replacing it with “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/vivek-ramaswamy-celebrates-immigrant-family-pushing-far-right-border-p-rcna101592">meritocratic admission</a>”. He advocates hardening the US-Mexico border “where criminals are coming in every day” through the <a href="https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1669088239469166592">deployment of military resources</a>.</p>
<h2>Slash aid to Ukraine</h2>
<p>Although not an isolationist, Ramaswamy is sceptical about an activist US foreign policy. He wants to <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/25/vivek-ramaswamy-ukraine-post-zelensky-warlord-russia/">slash aid to Ukraine</a>, implying that what’s in America’s best interest isn’t necessarily what’s in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s worst interest.</p>
<p>To end the war, Ramaswamy <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-6-4-23-vivek-ramaswamy-rep/story?id=99814403">proposes</a> granting Russia “major concessions”, while “freezing … current lines of control in a Korean War-style armistice agreement”. In exchange, “Russia has to leave its treaty” and its joint military agreement with China. </p>
<p>In Asia, Ramaswamy <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6324982560112">champions</a> a full-scale economic “decoupling” of the US from China. He also <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/vivek-ramaswamy-disrupt-china-russian-alliance-like-splitting-germany-japan">favours</a> Washington more aggressively “driving a wedge” between Beijing and Moscow, which he calls “the single greatest military threat that we’re going to face”.</p>
<p>Ramaswamy’s <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/vivek-ramaswamys-plan-to-defend-taiwan-5d5f751d">response</a> on Taiwan is short-term “strategic clarity,” insisting that he would defend the island “vigorously until the US achieves semiconductor independence,” then return to a policy of “strategic ambiguity”. </p>
<h2>Creating Trump 2.0</h2>
<p>Ramaswamy’s biggest potential strength, and liability, in the primaries is fusing himself to Trump’s hip. As <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/26/vivek-ramaswamy-2024-presidential-campaign/">“Trump 2.0,”</a> his <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/vivek-ramaswamy-pushing-delicately-win-trump-supporters-102216640">challenge</a> is a delicate one: to please the right-wing base, while still separating himself enough from Trump to win over converts.</p>
<p>So far, Ramaswamy has leaned toward the former.</p>
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<p>When pressed, he’s <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/vivek-ramaswamy-says-ve-certified-2020-election-results-rcna102010">said</a> that he would have certified the 2020 election results. Yet he’s also claimed that former vice president Mike Pence missed a “historic opportunity” to reform the electoral structure on January 6.</p>
<p>Ramaswamy has <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trumps-indictment-more-about-revenge-claim-presidential-candidates-nikki-haley-vivek-ramaswamy/articleshow/99131917.cms?from=mdr">attacked</a> criminal prosecutions of Trump as “politically motivated and setting an awful precedent. He’s pledged to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/07/30/trump-pardon-republican-candidates/">pardon Trump if elected</a>. He’s even <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/vivek-ramaswamy-says-he-d-make-trump-an-adviser-or-mentor-if-elected-president-191683141686">hinted</a> at hiring Trump as an "adviser” or “mentor” in his White House.</p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>Political statistician Nate Silver has <a href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/ramaswamy-and-the-physics-of-multi">predicted</a> that Ramaswamy will almost certainly make more headway in the polls, especially as his name recognition grows. Yet that publicity will also make him a target.</p>
<p>Already, he’s feeling the heat. Washington Post columnist George F. Will has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/25/vivek-ramaswamy-overconfident-simplistic-solutions/">derided</a> him as “comparatively, a child”.</p>
<p>Trump holds a <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-leads-republican-presidential-candidates-with-sizable-lead-poll-shows/">commanding lead</a> and looks poised to dominate Iowa and New Hampshire, before running the table in the remaining primaries.</p>
<p>If that happens, Ramaswamy might be <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-won-the-first-us-republican-presidential-debate-an-expert-reviews-the-highlights-212216">auditioning for a cabinet post or a 2028 replay</a>. The odds of Trump <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/19/vivek-ramaswamy-would-reject-vice-president-00111964">choosing him as his vice-presidential running mate</a> seem remote. Ramaswamy is too charismatic and Trump resists sharing the spotlight.</p>
<p>For now, the silver-tongued, dynamic newcomer to the Maga party will enjoy his 15 minutes. Whether there’s substance behind his candidacy — and whether he has independent staying power — are the big questions for #Vivek2024 to answer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212570/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Gift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Republican rising star Vivek Ramaswamy had a bump in the polls after a recent television debate.Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032182023-04-06T12:08:35Z2023-04-06T12:08:35ZTrump’s latest personal attacks on judges could further weaken people’s declining trust in American rule of law<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519653/original/file-20230405-14-ikcyz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump arrives at the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse on April 4, 2023, before his arraignment. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1250781316/photo/topshot-us-politics-trump-indictment.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=I3u5rvs60DqqaqFP2vww4C8zLbH9OezJU37hQ-vKRgI=">Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When former President Donald Trump was arraigned in a Manhattan criminal court on April 4, 2023, Judge Juan Merchan warned him to “refrain” from making social media posts that <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/3934302-judge-warns-trump-to-refrain-from-social-media-posts-that-could-incite-violence/">could incite violence</a> or “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/04/trump-judge-threats-violence/">jeopardize the rule of law</a>.” </p>
<p>Hours before his arraignment, Trump <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/judge-warns-trump-social-media-210658480.html">reposted a since-deleted photo</a> that featured him with a baseball bat alongside Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. </p>
<p>After Trump pleaded not guilty and was released from custody, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/trump-threaten-judge-incite-violence-1792620">he attacked Merchan</a> and the judge’s family during a speech at Mar-a-Lago.</p>
<p>This isn’t the first time Trump has criticized those trying to hold him accountable.</p>
<p>He <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110132429947452820">previously harshly</a> <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110114627876562286">spoke out against Bragg</a>, the <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110119997656460229">prosecutor leading</a> the criminal case against him, <a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/us-elections-government/ny-trump-hush-money-alvin-bragg-indictment-20230403-wwzgelua6fgfblrm666mqsp7i4-story.html">calling him “corrupt</a>” and a “radical left, Soros backed, district attorney.” </p>
<p>And he has <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-york/articles/2023-04-03/who-is-juan-merchan-the-ny-judge-handling-trumps-case">targeted Merchan</a>, claiming that the judge “hates” the former president and that he “strongarmed” one of Trump’s associates into taking a plea deal. </p>
<p>Trump has also questioned the integrity of the <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110114592721226234">U.S. legal</a> <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110132429947452820">system</a> itself, writing that it’s “impossible” for him to <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110114973678557189">get a fair trial</a> in New York City, presumably because the city’s population is <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/metro-area/new-york-city-metro-area/party-affiliation/">heavily Democratic</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Kdr4x8oAAAAJ&hl=en">We are scholars</a> of the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=LSH7a20AAAAJ&hl=en">presidency and U.S. courts</a>. In our 2019 book, “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/president-and-the-supreme-court/128A794F67DD778EC4405DBE7A4DA653">The President and the Supreme Court: Going Public on Judicial Decisions from Washington to Trump</a>,” we studied how presidents talk about court cases in their public statements. </p>
<p>We found that presidents criticize judicial decisions infrequently. And when they do, they tend to respectfully object to the decisions courts make rather than try to undermine their legitimacy or attack individual judges. </p>
<p>Trump, however, is not known to follow norms and does not abide by this one.</p>
<p>Here are three things to know about how Trump’s words regarding his criminal indictment can undermine the rule of law and confidence in the U.S. judicial system.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519651/original/file-20230405-28-owx4wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a dark blue suit is seen lit up with artificial lights as he walks surrounded by several men." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519651/original/file-20230405-28-owx4wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519651/original/file-20230405-28-owx4wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519651/original/file-20230405-28-owx4wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519651/original/file-20230405-28-owx4wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519651/original/file-20230405-28-owx4wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519651/original/file-20230405-28-owx4wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519651/original/file-20230405-28-owx4wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump greets supporters at Mar-a-Lago on April 4, 2023, hours after he pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1479878029/photo/former-president-donald-trump-holds-a-press-conference-at-mar-a-lago-after-being-arraigned-in.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=NiFI-WSiQsV--UL9nduLo2LM-9tra_4fWirN-4_2m7g=">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Trump’s attacks are bad for the rule of law</h2>
<p>For a few different reasons, the language Trump uses to criticize those he perceives to be his legal enemies often has racist or sexist undertones and can undermine faith in the U.S. legal system. </p>
<p>Indeed, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12596">some studies</a> <a href="https://digitalcommons.law.uidaho.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1281&context=faculty_scholarship">suggest that</a> Trump’s attacks on legal and political institutions may do just that. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/19331681.2020.1805389">research demonstrates</a> that public approval of the Supreme Court dropped following Trump’s tweets calling U.S. District Judge James L. Robart a “so-called judge” after he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/04/us/politics/visa-ban-trump-judge-james-robart.html">halted Trump’s travel ban</a> in February 2017.</p>
<p>We think that the country is not well situated to absorb further decreases in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/04/us/politics/donald-trump-constitution-power.html">support for the rule of law</a>. Americans’ faith in legal institutions has dropped dramatically in recent years because of various complex factors, including controversial <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">Supreme Court decisions</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/4732/supreme-court.aspx#:%7E:text=Line%20chart.,is%20the%20highest%20such%20reading.">Public disapproval</a> of the Supreme Court is at all-time high, with 58% of Americans disapproving of the court as of September 2022. This marks an increase of 18% of <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/4732/supreme-court.aspx">Americans who disapproved of the court</a> from a decade earlier. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1597/confidence-institutions.aspx">people’s confidence</a> in the criminal justice system has dropped over the past several years, with 43% of Americans indicating in 2022 they have very little confidence in the way the country handles crime. When former President Barack Obama’s term began in 2009, only 25% of people said the same.</p>
<p>If public support for the rule of law weathers the storm and serves as a check on Trump’s brand of vindictive politics – as it has been on past <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/no-blank-check/0FE4E2FC0D017DC70566FDFE94B89007">abuses of presidential power</a> – then American legal institutions will prevail. </p>
<p>But if Trump’s relentless, aggressive attacks convince large swaths of the public that he is being unfairly treated, this may lead to their questioning all kinds of other legal decisions. The end result may be a further drop in confidence in the rule of law, at least among Trump’s supporters. </p>
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<h2>2. These attacks can be dangerous</h2>
<p>Physical threats on judges and other court personnel are at an <a href="https://www.usmarshals.gov/sites/default/files/media/document/PUB-2-2021-Annual-Report.pdf">all-time high</a>. </p>
<p>Some of this increase can be linked to Trump’s time in the White House, if not his behavior directly. Over the course of his presidency, the U.S. Marshals Service <a href="https://www.usmarshals.gov/sites/default/files/media/document/PUB-2-2021-Annual-Report.pdf">reports</a> that inappropriate communications and threats against judges, prosecutors and other protected persons increased by about 50% – from 2,847 in 2017 to 4,261 in 2020. </p>
<p>Robart received <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattle-federal-judge-recalls-deluge-of-threats-after-striking-down-trump-travel-ban-in-2017/">a wave of threats</a> after he granted a restraining order against Trump’s travel ban in 2017 and Trump tweeted about Robart. In response to Trump’s public attacks, Robart’s personal information was leaked on the internet and the judge received more than 100 <a href="https://www.americanbar.org/news/abanews/aba-news-archives/2019/08/as-threats-intensify-judges-urge/">death</a> <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-judge-threats-attack-60-minutes-2021-05-30/">threats</a>.</p>
<h2>3. Trump’s criticisms are in a league of their own</h2>
<p>When both Republican and Democratic presidents have criticized legal decisions they <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/president-and-the-supreme-court/128A794F67DD778EC4405DBE7A4DA653">don’t like</a>, they have generally followed a common playbook. Typically, presidents express respect for the judicial branch and the rule of law and explain their disagreement. They do not single out people and resort to personal attacks.</p>
<p>President Bill Clinton, who <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/03/1167662256/past-presidents-while-never-indicted-have-faced-legal-woes-of-their-own">faced indictment</a> for lying to a grand jury in 1998, followed this playbook when he took responsibility for his “personal failure” during an <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-the-nation-testimony-before-the-independent-counsels-grand-jury">address to the nation</a>, and referred questions about the investigation to his lawyers. Although he opposed an independent prosecutor, he never criticized the prosecutor’s legitimacy. </p>
<p>Conversely, Trump <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/his-own-words-presidents-attacks-courts">routinely violated this norm</a> by <a href="https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/2019/11/07/this-is-not-normal-us-judge-denounces-trumps-attacks-on-judiciary/?slreturn=20230305120716">personally attacking individual judges</a> and courts instead of expressing principled disagreements about their decisions based on a different understanding of law. </p>
<p>His propensity to attack the legal system even predates his presidency. </p>
<p>In 2014, he tweeted that the South African judge in the Oscar Pistorius case was “<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/donald-trump-vs-carl-pistorius-selfrighteous-trump-brands-judge-masipa-a-moron-over-pistorius-sentencing-9808850.html">a moron</a>.” Pistorius, an accomplished runner, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-34993002">was found guilty</a> of murdering his girlfriend. </p>
<p>During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump used racially tinged language <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/his-own-words-presidents-attacks-courts">when attacking</a> the judge set to overhear the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/source-trump-nearing-settlement-in-trump-university-fraud-cases/2016/11/18/8dc047c0-ada0-11e6-a31b-4b6397e625d0_story.html">fraud trial of Trump University</a>. Trump claimed that District Judge Gonzalo Curiel would be biased against him because <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/06/07/481140881/who-is-judge-gonzalo-curiel-the-man-trump-attacked-for-his-mexican-ancestry">he was of Mexican descent</a> and Trump was planning to build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico. </p>
<p>Given Trump’s long history of these type of vicious personal attacks on members of the legal community, it seems unlikely that we will see a radically different Trump now that he faces criminal charges for the first time in his career. </p>
<p>While this may help <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3932960-trump-attorney-touts-fundraising-numbers-get-yourself-indicted-and-you-raise-a-lot-of-money/">Trump raise</a> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/04/fake-mugshot-donald-trump-fundraising/11600725002/">more money</a> for his presidential campaign, it may cost the country some faith in the rule of law, while putting legal officials in danger.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203218/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Presidents have historically criticized judicial decisions. But Trump is taking it a step further with potentially dangerous personal attacks on judges.Paul M. Collins Jr., Professor of Legal Studies and Political Science, UMass AmherstMatthew Eshbaugh-Soha, Professor of American Politics, University of North TexasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032112023-04-03T20:04:10Z2023-04-03T20:04:10ZDonald Trump faces his arrest with a public perp walk into a Manhattan courtroom – this could energize, not humiliate, the former president<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519397/original/file-20230404-22-oq9f9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump waves as he arrives at the Manhattan Criminal Court on April 4, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1479789001/photo/new-york-grand-jury-votes-to-indict-former-president-trump.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=vuu187Ll_8vqS3ArhiVdRXLfiwpxvdMR_sZEYWoROPI=">Kena Betancur/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former President Donald Trump exited his black SUV and waved to supporters as he walked, flanked by Secret Service agents, into a downtown Manhattan courthouse to be arrested on April 4, 2023. </p>
<p>This brief moment could easily be called the perp walk of the century. </p>
<p>Hundreds of visual journalists trained their cameras on the courthouse door, and helicopters overhead captured Trump’s short walk. Trump was visible to the public a second time inside the courthouse at around 2:30 p.m. and, with a stern expression, again walked past security guards and police. As Trump’s lawyer Joe Tacopina said would happen, Trump <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/31/trump-handcuffs-new-york-indictment-arraignment">was not handcuffed</a>. </p>
<p>Trump got what he wanted, as he, according to recent media reports, wanted to be the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/us/politics/trump-pending-indictment.html">center of attention</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/22/trump-wants-to-be-handcuffed-for-court-appearance-in-stormy-daniels-case-sources-say">create a spectacle</a>. His detractors also got what they wanted, which was a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/04/nyregion/trump-arrest-arraignment">visual record of Trump officially submitting to authorities</a>, five days after he was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/03/31/trump-indictment-democracy-precedent-stormy/">indicted</a> for 34 alleged felonies related to business fraud and a hush money payment to a porn star.</p>
<p>But Trump and his supporters are not likely to treat this as a walk of shame. Indeed, a high-profile event like a perp walk may further <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/31/donald-trump-indictment-00090001">fuel Trump’s run</a> for presidency. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=62J4r2oAAAAJ&hl=en">I have studied perp walks</a> for more than 10 years, and I am anxious to see how court officials, the New York Police Department and the Secret Service will handle Trump’s arrival at the New York courthouse on April 4. </p>
<p>Normally perp walks are seen as their own kind of punishment – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/02/us/perp-walk.html">a media ritual</a> that puts an alleged criminal on display for all to see. But Trump is a master showman and will be the ultimate ringmaster of his indictment. I believe that he clearly wants to – and will be able to – spin the event to his favor. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519385/original/file-20230404-20-8kcxcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A TV screen in a press room shows a white man waving, with the words 'Now: Trump is being processed against arraignment.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519385/original/file-20230404-20-8kcxcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519385/original/file-20230404-20-8kcxcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519385/original/file-20230404-20-8kcxcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519385/original/file-20230404-20-8kcxcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519385/original/file-20230404-20-8kcxcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519385/original/file-20230404-20-8kcxcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519385/original/file-20230404-20-8kcxcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A television screen at the White House shows former President Donald Trump getting arraigned on April 4, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1479796979/photo/press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-briefs-the-white-house-media.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=AKEUNmyigJoPpjDDwCZYkeyfAtBYNnHrd6cEdjqc_o8=">Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A relatively recent trend</h2>
<p>As I described in my 2021 book, “<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/seeing-justice-9780190926984?lang=en&cc=us">Seeing Justice</a>,” perp walks have been part of visual news for decades. But the term became common in popular culture relatively recently.</p>
<p>A search of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1994/03/13/movies/film-the-paper-replates-the-front-page-for-the-90-s.html">The New York Times archives</a> found it used for the first time in 1994 as part of a feature on the jargon of tabloid journalism. Since then, the term spread from the occupational lingo of police and journalists into the public sphere.</p>
<p>A perp walk happens when police officers <a href="https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/perp-walk">bring a person arrested in a crime</a> through a public area so he or she can be photographed by the media. </p>
<p>During a perp walk, defendants may be handcuffed or wearing prison clothing, accompanied by officers, or they might be photographed as they freely walk into court. Sometimes they run, and sometimes they put jackets over their heads. </p>
<p>In unusual cases, defendants try to trick the press to avoid being photographed. Former Pennsylvania State Attorney General Kathleen Kane had her twin sister Ellen Granahan Goffer <a href="https://www.dailylocal.com/2015/08/24/pennsylvania-ag-kathleen-kanes-twin-sister-acts-as-media-decoy-for-preliminary-hearing/">act as a decoy</a> and walk to court in her place after Kane was arrested on charge of <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Charges_against_Pennsylvania_Attorney_General_Kathleen_Kane,_2015-2016">perjury and obstruction of justice</a> in 2015. </p>
<p>Photographers recorded Goffer walking by, and some of them were unable to recover and capture the moment when Kane herself walked by shortly thereafter. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519110/original/file-20230403-26-arvxci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person with a rubber mask on looking like an old man with white hair and a blue suit does a dance outside of a building that says Trump Tower" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519110/original/file-20230403-26-arvxci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519110/original/file-20230403-26-arvxci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519110/original/file-20230403-26-arvxci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519110/original/file-20230403-26-arvxci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519110/original/file-20230403-26-arvxci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519110/original/file-20230403-26-arvxci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519110/original/file-20230403-26-arvxci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man wearing a Donald Trump face mask poses outside Trump Tower on April 2, 2023, in New York.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1250626840/photo/new-york-grand-jury-votes-to-indict-former-president-trump.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=vknGVWkJc0qRcNSI94t8RaM8_Wl5iU8r_Nu3NKaZJ58=">Kena Betancur/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A point of shame</h2>
<p>Perp walks are often a way to shame a criminal, even though they usually occur <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/stanford-rapist-brock-turners-mugshot-142400440.html">before a person is found guilty</a>. </p>
<p>For many criminals, this ritual is a moment of shame and embarrassment. In my previous career as a TV journalist, I covered quite a few walks when the person accused did everything they could to avoid the cameras. It is the scarlet letter of the digital age, which is why many of Trump’s critics on social media want one so badly they’ve been photo-editing <a href="https://www.themarysue.com/trump-perp-walks/">fake ones</a> for years.</p>
<p>Perp walks are productions put on by the press and law enforcement. Some result simply from a tip by police officers about where and when a person will appear. In some cases, as when Hollywood mogul <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/25/us/harvey-weinstein-perp-walk.html">Harvey Weinstein was arrested in 2018</a>, perp walks are scheduled in advance with careful security plans for where photographers may or may not stand. </p>
<p>High-profile defendants are scrutinized for the way they walk, dress and face the cameras. In Weinstein’s case, for instance, his <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-appearances/the-rush-of-feeling-seeing-harvey-weinsteins-perp-walk-arrest">humble blue sweater made headlines</a>. </p>
<p>Perp walks rarely occur spontaneously. They are usually tightly controlled and produced by the judicial system as a form of public relations for the criminal justice system. In <a href="https://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-2nd-circuit/1297682.html">2000, the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals</a> ruled that this procedure is a legitimate way of informing the press and public of police activity. In this case, a New York doorman arrested for alleged theft of an apartment tenant’s belongings sued New York City and the police department after he was forced to do a perp walk. He said it violated his rights. </p>
<p>Orchestrating a perp walk for the former president, however, is not likely to satisfy the yearnings of those who want so badly to see him punished for his alleged crime. </p>
<p>Trump knows how to play to the camera and create his own media events. This is why he was prepared to appear in New York as a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/us/politics/trump-pending-indictment.html">show of defiance</a> against <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-indictment-new-york-hush-money-election-488c76cf92269e2c258d5203a6e981a1">criminal charges stemming from</a> his alleged hush money payment to porn actress Stormy Daniels. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519104/original/file-20230403-1280-b0f4c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man with dark hair and a dark suit smiles. He stands against a plain gray background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519104/original/file-20230403-1280-b0f4c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519104/original/file-20230403-1280-b0f4c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519104/original/file-20230403-1280-b0f4c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519104/original/file-20230403-1280-b0f4c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519104/original/file-20230403-1280-b0f4c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519104/original/file-20230403-1280-b0f4c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519104/original/file-20230403-1280-b0f4c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rick Perry, former Texas governor, poses for a mug shot in August 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/453860102/photo/texas-governor-rick-perry-turns-himself-in-for-booking-process.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=EArFjWZsRF90G2R-rlhCLVCh3MKXmVKv6XLAy4NfmHs=">Travis County Sheriffs Office via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A positive spin</h2>
<p>In 2014, I researched the way <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1461670X.2016.1191368">then-Gov. Rick Perry</a> of Texas handled his perp walk and mug shot in Travis County. Perry was charged with <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2016/04/06/perry-criminal-case-officially-dismissed/">overstepping his powers by defunding an integrity unit</a>. </p>
<p>Perry held a rally outside the courthouse before walking in and shaking hands with onlookers en route to the booking room. He then flashed an ironic smile for his mug shot. Not only did Perry not shrink from the ritual, he won the visual moment <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/amphtml/rick-perry-mugshot-meme-115338984.html">in the court of public opinion</a>. All charges against him were eventually <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2016/04/06/perry-criminal-case-officially-dismissed/">dismissed</a>.</p>
<p>I think a politician like Trump most fears being forgotten or ignored. His opponents may want to see him humiliated, but they should keep in mind that his first courthouse appearance likely energized him. </p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article was updated April 4, 2023, with Trump arriving at the courthouse</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203211/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary Angela Bock has received funding from the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication and the Kapp Tau Alpha Honor Society. </span></em></p>A perp walk is often seen as a walk of shame for accused criminals. But this norm is likely to backfire in the case of Trump.Mary Angela Bock, Associate Professor of Journalism, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1965592023-01-12T13:21:28Z2023-01-12T13:21:28ZTrump is facing various criminal charges – here’s what we can learn from legal cases against Nixon and Clinton<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504070/original/file-20230111-14-t9gpgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump waves to people during a New Year's event at his Mar-a-Lago home in December 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1453537376/photo/donald-trump-addresses-the-press-on-new-years-eve-at-mar-a-lago-mansion.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=ZPmora_FI5LKPZ9ezZ3DTxKoHRFR0iuAkvGdPSewxJ4=">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/fulton-county-grand-jury-trump-election/index.html">Georgia special grand jury has finished its work</a> investigating whether former president Donald Trump and his allies committed crimes when trying to overturn the 2020 election results.</p>
<p>While special grand juries cannot themselves issue indictments, they can recommend district attorneys do so. This and other recent news about Trump’s mounting legal problems has led to a number of legal experts and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/10/georgia-fulton-investigation-trump-indictment/">political observers</a> saying that Trump could soon be indicted.</p>
<p>Trump, meanwhile, faces several other criminal investigations that could also result in indictments. The Department of Justice is <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23306941/donald-trump-crimes-criminal-investigation-mar-a-lago-fbi-january-6-election-georgia-new-york">investigating Trump</a> for retaining government documents in violation of several federal laws. </p>
<p>And the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol <a href="https://apnews.com/article/january-6-final-hearing-investigation-wraps-0bceb95826c1c836023d2810ccbeccca">referred Trump</a> to the Department of Justice in December 2022, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/23/1145160544/jan-6-report-committee-donald-trump">citing multiple likely</a> criminal violations in his role of orchestrating an attack on the Capitol. The Department of Justice’s special counsel is now investigating. </p>
<p>Trump, who may become the first former president of the United States to be indicted by a court of law, is not the first modern president with <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/which-presidents-have-been-tied-to-a-crime-a-history-1534943720">legal problems</a>. But the question of whether a president – sitting or former – should be charged with a crime has come up three times in the last half-century. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://law.wayne.edu/profile/ew9862">legal scholar</a>, I understand the important questions raised about the rule of law within U.S. democracy by the possible indictment of a former president. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://rolalliance.org/rol-alliance-impact/rule-of-law-democracy/">rule of law</a> means that no one is above the law. It ensures that the rules are made by and for the people. Those rules are enforced equally and adjudicated through well-established procedures. For the rule of law to prevail, any decision to indict a former president – or not to – has to be credible, independent and supported by evidence.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white man with a blue suit walks past a row of American flags with the words 'Make America Great again' on a banner above the flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503889/original/file-20230110-19-tgeje0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump speaks at an event in his Mar-a-Lago home in November 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1441806213/photo/former-u-s-president-donald-trump-makes-an-announcement-at-his-florida-home.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=R2vt8_lclk72suKPt3eLn75Rak5i1LT6SIe18wHUig0=">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Being a current or former president matters</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.processhistory.org/presidential-misconduct-historians-and-history/">Presidential misconduct</a> is not new. </p>
<p>Presidents have engaged in unlawful activity. Some have even run into legal problems while in office. But their legal problems are often settled by the time they leave office and fade from the public’s memory. </p>
<p>The perseverance of Trump’s legal problems raises important new questions about how to deal with misconduct by a former president.</p>
<p>This matters, because federal law treats former presidents differently from sitting presidents. Former presidents do not retain all the legal advantages of being president. For example, former presidents can try to assert executive privilege to shield certain documents and information from Congress, courts and the public to protect the nation, but courts <a href="https://www.theusconstitution.org/litigation/thompson-v-trump/">have limited their</a> ability to do so. </p>
<p>The question of whether a sitting president can be indicted remains unresolved. In 2000, the Department of Justice <a href="https://www.justice.gov/olc/opinion/sitting-president%E2%80%99s-amenability-indictment-and-criminal-prosecution">adopted a policy</a> against indicting a sitting president. The policy protects presidents while they are in office so they can fulfill their constitutional duties. </p>
<p>But it is tradition, not law or policy, that has kept former presidents from indictment in <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/case-criminally-investigating-ex-president/616804/">the past 240 years</a>. </p>
<p>The legal arguments against indicting a sitting president – namely that it would undermine the capacity of the executive branch to perform its constitutional functions – lose weight once a president leaves office. A former president becomes a private citizen and no longer has any duties under the Constitution.</p>
<h2>Legal trouble for sitting presidents</h2>
<p>A few presidents have faced legal problems while in office, including Republican Richard Nixon and Democrat Bill Clinton. </p>
<p>Nixon famously ran into legal trouble after his <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Watergate-Scandal">reelection campaign</a> burglarized and bugged the Democratic National Committee’s headquarters in June 1972 – and he subsequently participated in the effort to cover up the scandal. </p>
<p>Nixon resigned in 1974 before the House of Representatives could have potentially impeached him – or the Senate could have convicted him and removed him from office <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/8/7/5970967/what-was-watergate-scandal-nixon">for his crimes</a> of obstruction of justice, abuse of power and contempt of Congress.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Leon-Jaworski">Special Prosecutor Leon Jaworski</a>, who was investigating the Watergate scandal, struggled with the question of whether a court can indict a sitting president. </p>
<p>The U.S. Constitution does not say that the president is immune from ordinary processes of the criminal law. It does, however, provide for impeachment and removal from office. </p>
<p>Some believe that because the Constitution establishes an <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/indicting-and-prosecuting-sitting-president">impeachment process</a> to address presidential misconduct, it should take precedent over a criminal indictment. Others worry that indictment would interfere with a president’s ability to fulfill his or her constitutional duties.</p>
<p>Jaworski left this legal question open and chose not to indict Nixon in 1974. He transmitted the evidence he had gathered on Nixon’s involvement in Watergate to the House so it could pursue impeachment proceedings. </p>
<p>The grand jury that was also investigating the Watergate scandal, however, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1974/06/07/archives/jury-named-nixon-a-coconspirator-but-didnt-indict-st-clair-confirms.html">voted in June 1974</a> to name Nixon as an unindicted co-conspirator in an alleged conspiracy to obstruct justice. It also recommended indicting seven men involved in the crime.</p>
<p>Nixon’s successor, President Gerald Ford, then faced the question of how to deal with Nixon’s misconduct after his predecessor resigned the office. Ford didn’t have the power to indict, but he could pardon Nixon for his alleged crimes. Ford decided that it was in the best interest of the country to <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-pardons-nixon">move on</a> from the Watergate scandal and to not allow prosecutors to indict Nixon. </p>
<p>Shortly after Nixon’s resignation, Ford <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-pardons-nixon">granted a full</a>, free and absolute pardon to Nixon in September 1974 for all offenses committed during his tenure as president. Ford’s pardon ensured that Nixon would not face indictment as a former president.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white photo shows two men sitting in arm chairs facing each other." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503893/original/file-20230110-16-vgiocz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Richard Nixon speaks with journalist David Frost in 1977, three years after Nixon resigned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/50426386/photo/frost-interviews-nixon.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=ghRZcU4BWKy-fprsduiqPDQybzP0A86zbemPw8rP1os=">John Bryson/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Another kind of legal trouble</h2>
<p>Clinton was never indicted, but he faced serious consequences for his presidential misconduct. His legal problems related to his treatment of and relationships with several women who were not his wife. </p>
<p>Clinton was accused of lying in court proceedings in a sexual harassment case filed against him. His alleged lying led to his impeachment for lying under oath to a federal grand jury and obstruction of justice. The Senate voted not to convict him, and thus he was not removed from office. A <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/stories/contempt041399.htm">federal district judge</a> held Clinton in contempt of court for making false statements in deposition testimony in the case. </p>
<p>Unlike Nixon, Clinton paid a price for his presidential misconduct. An Arkansas Supreme Court <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2000/07/01/arkansas-court-panel-sues-clinton/9226bfa2-3297-453a-b680-d8a34b1f98f8/">committee sued him</a> for his behavior while in office and asked that Clinton be disbarred for his behavior.</p>
<p>Clinton <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2001/01/20/in-a-deal-clinton-avoids-indictment/bb80cc4c-e72c-40c1-bb72-55b2b81c3065/">settled</a> the suit by agreeing to a five year suspension of his law license, a $25,000 fine and public acknowledgment that he had violated the Arkansas Rules of Professional Conduct. He accepted a punishment far harsher than the reprimand normally given in similar situations, but escaped criminal prosecution. </p>
<h2>Preserving the rule of law</h2>
<p>Trump now faces multiple criminal investigations that could result in an indictment. No former president has faced so many possible indictments. </p>
<p>Any decision for or against indicting Trump could threaten the rule of law if it is not carefully considered and supported by the evidence. As weighty and historic as the decisions about indicting Trump may seem, they reflect the country’s larger struggle in navigating how to deal with presidential misconduct.</p>
<p>The next steps in Trump’s legal saga will be key in determining how our democracy decides to hold former presidents accountable for their misconduct.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsten Matoy Carlson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump isn’t the first modern president with legal problems, but he would be the first former president to be indicted for alleged crimes.Kirsten Matoy Carlson, Professor of Law and Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1895002022-08-26T19:17:21Z2022-08-26T19:17:21ZFBI’s Mar-a-Lago search warrant affidavit reveals how Trump may have compromised national security – a legal expert answers 5 key questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481357/original/file-20220826-14-tztka9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C26%2C5967%2C3846&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The seal of the Federal Bureau of Investigation is seen outside of its headquarters in Washington, DC on August 15, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-seal-of-the-federal-bureau-of-investigation-is-seen-news-photo/1242529976?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Justice Department on Aug. 26, 2022, <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/64872441/102/1/united-states-v-sealed-search-warrant/">released an affidavit</a> written by an FBI special agent that was used to obtain a court order for the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/23/trump-records-mar-a-lago-fbi/">FBI’s search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida estate</a> for documents related to national defense and other government records.</em> </p>
<p><em>Large portions of the affidavit were blocked from public view, leaving many questions about details of the investigation. Nonetheless, what is visible shows the FBI had solid evidence that Trump took documents critical to national security to his Mar-a-Lago estate.</em></p>
<p><em>Florida federal Judge Bruce Reinhart had <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-justice-dept-poised-release-redacted-affidavit-trump-search-2022-08-26/">ordered on Aug. 22, 2022, that the affidavit</a> – which typically contains key details about an investigation to justify a search warrant – <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.617854/gov.uscourts.flsd.617854.99.0_11.pdf">be made public</a> following a lawsuit from media organizations and other groups. But Reinhart <a href="https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1016198/judge-orders-fbi-to-release-redacted-affidavit-behind-search-of-trumps-mar-a">also said in his order that he would allow</a> the Justice Department <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/64872441/98/united-states-v-sealed-search-warrant/">to first redact</a> some of the affidavit’s most critical information, like “the identities of witnesses, law enforcement agents, and uncharged parties … the investigation’s strategy, direction, scope, sources, and methods, and … grand jury information.”</em></p>
<p><em>It’s the latest development in the legal conflict over government documents, including national security material, that Trump has kept in violation of the law, according to the affidavit. The document shows that there is what the law calls “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/probable_cause">probable cause</a>” to believe that Trump committed various crimes, including violation of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/you-dont-have-to-be-a-spy-to-violate-the-espionage-act-and-other-crucial-facts-about-the-law-trump-may-have-broken-188708">Espionage Act</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>We asked Georgia State University <a href="http://www.clarkcunningham.org/">legal scholar</a> and <a href="https://www.yalelawjournal.org/forum/apple-and-the-american-revolution-remembering-why-we-have-the-fourth-amendment-1">search warrant expert</a> Clark Cunningham to answer five key questions to help explain this new development.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is a search warrant affidavit?</h2>
<p>Let’s start with <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/search_warrant">a search warrant, which is a court order</a> authorizing government agents to enter property without an owner’s permission to search for evidence of a crime. The warrant further authorizes agents to seize and take away such evidence if they find it. </p>
<p>In order to get a search warrant, the government must provide the court one or more statements made under oath that explain why the government believes a crime has been committed, establishing that there is sufficient justification for issuing the warrant. If the statement is written, it is <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/affidavit">called an affidavit</a>. This is why the first sentence of the unsealed affidavit has the words “being duly sworn” following the blacked-out name of the agent making the statement.</p>
<h2>2. What’s the most important takeway from this affidavit?</h2>
<p>Given that a lot of the information on the affidavit has been blacked out, probably the most telling new information is that the FBI agent says that a review of Mar-a-Lago documents the government had already obtained <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/politics/doj-investigation-trump-documents-timeline/index.html">by grand jury subpoena earlier this year</a> were marked in a way that would clearly indicate national security was at risk.</p>
<h2>3. How does the affidavit show national security was at risk?</h2>
<p>The affidavit reveals that some of the documents stored at Mar-a-Lago were <a href="https://www.allacronyms.com/HCS/Humint_Control_System">marked HCS</a>, indicating they were intelligence derived from clandestine human sources – or what we would think of as secret intelligence information provided by undercover agents or sources within foreign governments. If the identity of agents or sources is revealed, their intelligence value is compromised and, even, their lives may be at risk.</p>
<p>There were also documents marked FISA, meaning they were collected under the <a href="https://bja.ojp.gov/program/it/privacy-civil-liberties/authorities/statutes/1286">Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act</a>, documents <a href="https://csrc.nist.gov/glossary/term/noforn">marked NOFORN,</a> meaning that the information cannot be released in any form to a foreign government, as well as documents <a href="https://www.nsa.gov/Signals-Intelligence/Overview/">marked SI</a>, meaning they were derived from monitoring foreign governments’ communications.</p>
<h2>4. Is it common for a court to unseal an affidavit while an investigation is underway?</h2>
<p>Because a search warrant affidavit usually lays out the government’s case and identifies witnesses, it is <a href="https://www.timesunion.com/state/article/Why-search-warrants-rarely-unsealed-17369233.php">very rare for a search warrant affidavit to be unsealed</a> if there is an ongoing criminal investigation. That’s why there were so many redactions in the version of the affidavit that was released. If such an affidavit is unsealed, it’s most often later in the process, when criminal charges are actually filed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A female security guard or police officer is seen walking outside of a courthouse." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481340/original/file-20220826-24-i4xa8y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Security officers guard the entrance to the federal courthouse in West Palm Beach on Aug. 18, 2022, as the court holds a hearing to determine if the Trump affidavit should be unsealed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/security-officers-guard-the-entrance-to-the-paul-g-rogers-federal-picture-id1242577909?s=2048x2048">Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>5. What does this say about the investigation and the seriousness of Trump’s alleged crimes?</h2>
<p>The information revealed in the affidavit indicates that the country’s national security and the safety of intelligence agents were possibly put at severe risk when national defense documents were apparently stored in a room at a resort in Florida. </p>
<p>It’s a little confusing – there’s been much <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/13/trump-warrant-classified-answers/">talk in the media about classified information</a>. Improper storing of classified information is a crime, but that is not what is being investigated here. A much more serious crime under the Espionage Act is at stake. </p>
<p>Even someone like a former president who initially had lawful possession of national defense information commits a felony by <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793">retaining that information after the government demands its return</a>. Trump can not hang on to national defense documents even if, while president, he “declassified” such documents, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/18/politics/trump-claim-standing-order-declassify-nonsense-patently-false-former-officials/index.html">he claims he did</a>. </p>
<p>It’s been documented that a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/25/us/chinese-zhang-mar-a-lago.html">Chinese spy</a> penetrated Mar-a-Lago while Trump was president. It is an unsecured location. If a foreign spy got into that room and walked out with information disclosing U.S. undercover agents around the world, or how we have been monitoring and collecting classified information around the world, I see the potential harm as staggering.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clark D. Cunningham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A search warrant expert breaks down the affidavit the FBI used to search Mar-a-Lago, and the national security concerns it presents.Clark D. Cunningham, W. Lee Burge Chair in Law & Ethics; Director, National Institute for Teaching Ethics & Professionalism, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1886842022-08-12T22:28:00Z2022-08-12T22:28:00ZUnsealed court documents show the FBI was looking for evidence Trump violated the Espionage Act and other laws – here’s how the documents seized show possible wrongdoing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478977/original/file-20220812-15-ho14f1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A police officer drives by Mar-a-Lago on August 9, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/local-law-enforcement-officers-are-seen-in-front-of-the-home-of-picture-id1242402806?s=2048x2048">Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-and-inventory/6478c5980764438f/full.pdf">FBI recovered</a> confidential and top-secret items from Mar-a-Lago during its Aug. 8, 2022, search of the estate – pointing to former President Donald Trump’s potential violation of several federal laws.</em> </p>
<p><em>A Florida federal judge – the same one who issued the warrant to search Trump’s estate – <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/trump-search-warrant-unseal-order.pdf">ordered on Aug. 12, 2022</a>, that the document be made public – along with an inventory of items seized during the FBI’s raid.</em> </p>
<p><em>The unsealed documents <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/12/us/trump-news">seem to indicate</a> that the U.S. Department of Justice believes <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fbi-recovered-eleven-sets-of-classified-documents-in-trump-search-inventory-shows-11660324501?st=ql9humks0e7gckv&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink">Trump may have violated</a> the Espionage Act, as well as other criminal laws relating to the handling of public records.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="http://www.clarkcunningham.org/">Clark Cunningham</a>, Georgia State University legal scholar and an <a href="https://www.yalelawjournal.org/forum/apple-and-the-american-revolution-remembering-why-we-have-the-fourth-amendment-1">expert on search warrants</a>, explains how this new information connects to possible criminal wrongdoing by the former president.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478971/original/file-20220812-2527-qta4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An older white man wearing a black suit is seen walking to a brown lectern, with the American flag standing to his left." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478971/original/file-20220812-2527-qta4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478971/original/file-20220812-2527-qta4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478971/original/file-20220812-2527-qta4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478971/original/file-20220812-2527-qta4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478971/original/file-20220812-2527-qta4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478971/original/file-20220812-2527-qta4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478971/original/file-20220812-2527-qta4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland discussed the FBI’s search on Aug. 11, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/attorney-general-merrick-garland-arrives-to-deliver-a-statement-at-picture-id1242440351?s=2048x2048">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>These laws were potentially violated</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-and-inventory/6478c5980764438f/full.pdf">released warrant</a> authorized the FBI to search for evidence that Trump has violated three key laws.</p>
<p>First, there is the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793">Espionage Act</a>, which applies to possession of information related to the national defense that could be used to harm the U.S. or aid a foreign adversary. This law applies to someone who, like Trump, initially had lawful possession of such information but who, after their time in office ended, refuses to return it to the government.</p>
<p>Then, there is <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1519">obstruction of justice</a>, which includes concealing documents to obstruct a federal investigation. </p>
<p>Finally, there is the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071">Public Records statute</a>, which prohibits someone entrusted with a public record from “concealing” that document. </p>
<h2>What’s in the inventory</h2>
<p>The inventory of items taken by the FBI from Mar-a-Lago apparently shows Trump may have violated these laws in a number of different ways. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-and-inventory/6478c5980764438f/full.pdf">inventory shows</a> that FBI agents seized documents designated “SCI,” which refers to <a href="https://csrc.nist.gov/glossary/term/sensitive_compartmented_information">Sensitive Compartmented Information</a>. In simple terms, this is classified information that comes from intelligence sources – and must be handled only within secured government locations. </p>
<p>Because this kind of sensitive information can reveal both methods and procedures for collecting intelligence – including the identity of undercover agents in hostile countries – the presence of such materials at Mar-a-Lago may be a violation of the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793">Espionage Act</a>, if Trump was willfully retaining this information after the government demanded its return.</p>
<p>The inventory also refers to numerous “top-secret” documents. <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/18/3a.11">Federal law defines</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-government-documents-are-classified-to-keep-sensitive-information-safe-188687">this as</a> “information or material which requires the highest degree of protection” and could threaten national security. The FBI’s discovery of top-secret documents could corroborate <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/11/garland-trump-mar-a-lago/">The Washington Post’s report</a> that the FBI search included classified documents related to nuclear weapons. The FBI also seized documents designated “secret” and “confidential.”</p>
<p>All told, the FBI removed 27 boxes and other individually listed items, including photographs. </p>
<p>Trump received a federal subpoena <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/3597357-doj-subpoenaed-trump-months-before-mar-a-lago-search-report/">in the spring of 2022</a> to return documents taken from the White House. </p>
<p>So if the inventory includes items that should have been returned in response to the subpoena, but were not, that can be evidence of obstruction of justice and concealment of public records. </p>
<h2>A defense that might not hold</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/10/nyregion/trump-fbi-planting-evidence.html">Trump has suggested</a> that the FBI may have planted evidence during its search. </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcrmp/rule_41">federal rules about search warrants</a> provide strong protection against such a possibility, by requiring that a government officer present when a search warrant is carried out “prepare and verify an inventory” of property seized in the presence of “another officer” and “the person from whom, or from whose premises, the property was taken.” </p>
<p>The officer must then “give a copy of the warrant and a receipt for the property taken to the person from whom, or from whose premises, the property was taken,” according to these rules. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/11/us/garland-trump-statement-doj#garland-fbi-trump-transcript">U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said</a> during his Aug. 11 statement about the search that these procedures were followed. “Copies of both the warrant and the FBI property receipt were provided on the day of the search to the former president’s counsel, who was on site during the search,” Garland said.</p>
<p>The federal rules say that if the owner of the premises is not present, another “credible person” can verify the inventory – in this case, the unsealed records confirm that Trump’s attorney, Christine Bobbs, acknowledged receipt of the inventory at 6:19 p.m. on Aug. 8, 2022.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478975/original/file-20220812-4578-lxxzbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An older white man with white hair, wearing a navy suit and red tie, waves as he walks to a black SUV. Behind him a man wearing sunglasses and a dark suit stands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478975/original/file-20220812-4578-lxxzbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478975/original/file-20220812-4578-lxxzbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478975/original/file-20220812-4578-lxxzbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478975/original/file-20220812-4578-lxxzbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478975/original/file-20220812-4578-lxxzbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478975/original/file-20220812-4578-lxxzbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478975/original/file-20220812-4578-lxxzbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump waves while walking to his car in New York City on Aug. 10, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/former-us-president-donald-trump-waves-while-walking-to-a-vehicle-of-picture-id1242419266?s=2048x2048">Stringer/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Limited precedent for unsealing these types of documents</h2>
<p>It’s relatively rare for a judge to unseal court records of a search warrant, unless an actual criminal prosecution is underway. </p>
<p>One other notable exception occurred in December 2016 when a New York federal court issued <a href="https://lasvegassun.com/news/2016/dec/20/court-to-unseal-clinton-email-search-warrant/">an unsealing order </a> for <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/clinton-email-investigation-search-warrant-released-232852">the Oct. 30, 2016, search warrant</a> requested by former FBI Director James Comey to investigate emails improperly stored by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. </p>
<p>Unlike the Aug. 12, 2022 order regarding Trump, the unsealing of the Clinton-related warrant included the underlying affidavit. An affidavit is a statement made under oath to the issuing judge to obtain the warrant. </p>
<p>Disclosure of these documents provided the basis for a <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/clinton-email-investigation-search-warrant-released-232852">firestorm of criticism</a> by Clinton allies that there was insufficient evidence to support the FBI’s warrant application. </p>
<p>As explained in a judge’s October 2016 order to make the search warrant <a href="http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000159-184d-d63b-af7f-f97f95f80001">for the Clinton investigation public</a>, warrant application proceedings “have historically been highly secretive in nature and closed to the press and public.” In that case, the judge said that in deciding whether to unseal, <a href="http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000159-184d-d63b-af7f-f97f95f80001">courts must consider</a> both the government’s interest in not compromising an ongoing criminal investigation and the need to protect the privacy and reputation of the person subject to the search who may never be charged with a crime. </p>
<p>However, for the Mar-a-Lago warrant, both the government and Trump, the subject of the search, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/trump-says-wont-oppose-release-051945792.html">consented to the unsealing</a>.</p>
<p>True to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/03/16/126614141/merrick-garland-has-a-reputation-of-collegiality-record-of-republican-support">his reputation</a> for careful judgment, Garland went by the book in response to an avalanche of attacks from Trump allies demanding transparency about the search. The warrant and inventory have now been released for all to see through a proper court procedure – which Trump <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/donald-trump-wont-object-to-release-of-mar-a-lago-search-warrant">publicly endorsed</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clark D. Cunningham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A legal scholar analyzes the unsealed warrant for the FBI’s recent search of Donald Trump’s home and the list of materials seized there. The implications for Trump are potentially grave.Clark D. Cunningham, W. Lee Burge Chair in Law & Ethics; Director, National Institute for Teaching Ethics & Professionalism, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1884382022-08-09T18:12:53Z2022-08-09T18:12:53ZWhy searching an ex-president’s estate is not easily done – 4 important things to know about the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478330/original/file-20220809-15076-ffr1dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C100%2C4496%2C2887&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Palm Beach police officers stand near the Florida home of former President Donald Trump on Aug. 8, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/palm-beach-police-officers-keep-watch-near-the-home-of-former-donald-picture-id1242395984?s=2048x2048">Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The FBI’s raid of former President Donald Trump’s estate on Aug. 8, 2022, caught Trump by surprise – and prompted immediate speculation about exactly <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/3594254-heres-what-we-know-about-the-fbi-search-of-trumps-mar-a-lago/">why and how</a> the law enforcement agency secured a search warrant.</em></p>
<p><em>“My beautiful home, Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents. … They even broke into my safe!” <a href="https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1556775612920074240">Trump said in a statement</a> released through his political action committee, Save America.</em></p>
<p><em>Trump brought <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/12/trump-15-boxes/">15 boxes of classified materials</a> with him to Mar-a-Lago when he left the White House, and delayed returning the materials to National Archives officials for months.</em></p>
<p><em>The FBI and the Department of Justice have not commented on the raid, but the Justice Department is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/07/1091431136/justice-department-investigating-trumps-possible-mishandling-of-government-secre">known to be investigating</a> how Trump possibly mishandled government secrets. Trump is also facing other potential charges from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/us/georgia-trump-electors.html">state of Georgia</a> stemming from his alleged interference with the 2020 elections.</em></p>
<p><em>Georgia State University legal scholar <a href="http://www.clarkcunningham.org/">Clark D. Cunningham</a>, an expert on <a href="https://www.yalelawjournal.org/forum/apple-and-the-american-revolution-remembering-why-we-have-the-fourth-amendment-1">search warrants</a> and the criminal <a href="https://news.gsu.edu/2022/07/06/cunningham-legal-voice-for-jan-6-hearings-2020-presidential-election-investigation/">investigations of interference</a> in the 2020 election, explains what could have led to the raid and what the raid tells us about the state of the federal investigation into Trump’s activities.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478308/original/file-20220809-14165-ffr1dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An older white man is shown seated at a desk, gesticulating with his mouth open, in an ornate-looking room. In front of him is a group of reporters and camera people with equipment." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478308/original/file-20220809-14165-ffr1dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478308/original/file-20220809-14165-ffr1dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478308/original/file-20220809-14165-ffr1dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478308/original/file-20220809-14165-ffr1dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478308/original/file-20220809-14165-ffr1dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478308/original/file-20220809-14165-ffr1dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478308/original/file-20220809-14165-ffr1dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump speaks to the press from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla., in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/president-donald-trump-speaks-to-the-press-after-talking-to-members-picture-id1064313534?s=2048x2048">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>1. There are legal hurdles to getting a search warrant</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-4/">U.S. Constitution requires</a> that all search warrants “particularly describe the place to be searched and the … things to be seized.” </p>
<p>This requirement can be traced in part to a <a href="https://www.yalelawjournal.org/forum/apple-and-the-american-revolution-remembering-why-we-have-the-fourth-amendment-1">famous British case from the 1760s</a> when agents of King George III searched the house of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Wilkes">John Wilkes</a>, an opposition member of Parliament, for incriminating papers. The warrant they used was condemned by the courts as a “general warrant” because it did not specifically name Wilkes, his house or the seized papers. </p>
<p>Courts and commentators also criticized the Wilkes warrant because it was based on mere suspicion. The U.S. founders looked to the Wilkes warrant as an example of what the Constitution should prevent and added <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-4/">the Fourth Amendment</a> – requiring that search warrants only be issued “upon probable cause, supported by Oath.” </p>
<p>Criminal <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcrmp/rule_41">procedure laws</a> help enforce these constitutional requirements by requiring search warrants to particularly describe “evidence of a crime … or other items illegally possessed.” </p>
<p>Only judges can issue search warrants, and they must find, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcrmp/rule_41">based on sworn testimony</a>, that there is probable cause that such evidence or items will be found in the location described in the warrant.</p>
<p>This means that a judge must have found that there was probable cause that either a crime had been committed, or that Trump was illegally possessing items taken from the White House. The FBI’s request for a search warrant might also have indicated concern that these documents would either be destroyed or moved off of the premises.</p>
<h2>2. There are also potential policy hurdles</h2>
<p>In February 2020, then-Attorney General William Barr <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/us/politics/barr-2020-investigations.html">announced new restrictions </a> that require the FBI and other law enforcement agencies to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/us/politics/barr-2020-investigations.html">get permission</a> from the Attorney General before investigating presidential candidates or their staff. </p>
<p>Barr’s successor, Attorney General Merrick Garland, has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/us/politics/trump-garland-investigation.html">kept this policy in place</a> – keeping in line with general <a href="https://www.justice.gov/about">Justice Department guidelines</a> that try to prevent politically charged investigations. </p>
<p>This means that this search would not have taken place without Garland’s approval. Given the generally strong tradition of <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/independence-and-accountability-department-justice">political independence</a> at the Justice Department, it is not surprising that President Joe <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/did-biden-know-about-fbi-search-trumps-mar-lago-what-we-know-1732190">Biden and</a> his aides <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/8/9/23297734/donald-trump-mar-a-lago-fbi-raid">were not informed</a> in advance of the raid and found out on Twitter. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478313/original/file-20220809-18-tvikwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=100%2C18%2C4055%2C2747&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A police officer leans against a police car while a woman walks past. Behind them are large white gates, shining blue and red because of the police lights." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478313/original/file-20220809-18-tvikwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=100%2C18%2C4055%2C2747&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478313/original/file-20220809-18-tvikwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478313/original/file-20220809-18-tvikwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478313/original/file-20220809-18-tvikwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478313/original/file-20220809-18-tvikwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478313/original/file-20220809-18-tvikwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478313/original/file-20220809-18-tvikwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump was not at Mar-a-Lago when the FBI searched the premises on Aug. 8, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/police-car-is-seen-outside-former-us-president-donald-trumps-in-picture-id1242395292?s=2048x2048">Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>3. The FBI might have found more than it was looking for</h2>
<p>The Supreme Court ruled in a <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/496/128/">1990 case</a> that police executing a warrant that authorized searching for the proceeds of a robbery could also lawfully seize weapons that were in plain view. </p>
<p>Assuming that the FBI’s warrant authorized only searching for classified documents taken from the White House, if the FBI found “in plain view” other evidence of crimes related to the 2020 election or <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/10/politics/jan-6-us-capitol-riot-timeline/index.html">Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection</a>, they likely could have taken that, as well. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478310/original/file-20220809-18-bybrig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A few people - one of them yelling - are shown with Trump flags and American flags on a dark evening on the street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478310/original/file-20220809-18-bybrig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478310/original/file-20220809-18-bybrig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478310/original/file-20220809-18-bybrig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478310/original/file-20220809-18-bybrig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478310/original/file-20220809-18-bybrig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478310/original/file-20220809-18-bybrig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478310/original/file-20220809-18-bybrig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Supporters of former President Donald Trump protest outside his Mar-a-Lago home following the FBI’s raid on Aug. 8, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/supporters-of-former-president-donald-trump-shout-as-kamrel-eppinger-picture-id1242396102?s=2048x2048">Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>4. There may be a connection with Trump’s possible election interference</h2>
<p>A federal <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/12/us/politics/justice-department-trump-classified.html">grand jury, requested by the Justice Department, has been investigating</a> the presence of potentially classified documents at Mar-a-Lago since at least early May 2022. It seems likely that something has happened recently to cause this urgent search. One possibility is that the search warrant was issued based on information gathered in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/08/donald-trump-fbi-raid-explainer">one or more of the criminal investigations</a> involving 2020 election interference. </p>
<p>In particular, the Department of Justice on July 12, 2022, obtained a <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/filing-by-thomas-windom-in-u-s/c8958e56f1860a88/full.pdf">warrant to search the cellphone</a> of <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/who-is-john-eastman-and-why-is-he-important-to-the-jan-6-hearings">John Eastman</a>, Trump’s former lawyer. As hearings by the Jan. 6 House committee have revealed, Eastman was a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/17/1105600072/who-is-john-eastman-the-trump-lawyer-at-the-center-of-the-jan-6-investigation">primary architect of the plan</a> to block Congress from certifying Biden’s victory.</p>
<p>There seems little doubt that the Justice Department had compelling, perhaps overwhelming, legal justifications for conducting this unprecedented search of a former president’s home. However, the secrecy required for Justice Department investigations and grand jury proceedings means that the country will have to be patient – the justifications for the search may become public only if and when criminal charges are filed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clark D. Cunningham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s a high bar for a federal judge to grant a search warrant, indicating there is probable cause that Trump committed a crime by holding classified documents at Mar-a-Lago.Clark D. Cunningham, W. Lee Burge Chair in Law & Ethics; Director, National Institute for Teaching Ethics & Professionalism, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1856872022-07-01T05:12:22Z2022-07-01T05:12:22ZThe United States was founded on allegiance to laws, not leaders. The Jan 6 rioters turned that on its head<p>When colonial Americans declared their independence on July 4 1776, they rejected more than British rule. They explicitly denounced the British form of government and the unlegislated norms, traditions and conventions a royal head of government entailed. </p>
<p>The recent hearings of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol has made clear that efforts to resist the monarchical model remain unfinished.</p>
<p>The central question at hand: is the nation’s democracy ensured by allegiance to its constitution or to its leaders? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jan-6-hearing-gives-primetime-exposure-to-violent-footage-and-dramatic-evidence-the-question-is-to-what-end-184416">Jan. 6 hearing gives primetime exposure to violent footage and dramatic evidence – the question is, to what end?</a>
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<h2>Competing allegiances</h2>
<p>The sixth and most recent hearing by the Select Committee into the January 6 Capitol riots got to the heart of the matter on allegiances. </p>
<p>Liz Cheney, the committee’s lead Republican lawmaker, said that among the more than 1,000 witnesses who testified before their committee, some have faced intimidation to remain “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqFE9YtsWFg">loyal</a>” to former President Trump. </p>
<p>US citizens don’t swear oaths of loyalty to any monarch, individual or party – they swear allegiance to a constitution treated by most Americans with a level of reverence otherwise reserved for religious entities. </p>
<p>To this day, practically every single US government official <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Oath_Office.htm">vows</a> to support and defend the US Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic. </p>
<p>Nearly 20 hours’ worth of public hearings by the committee has demonstrated that for many members of the Trump administration – most notably Vice President Mike Pence, the White House Counsel’s Office, and Attorney General Bill Barr – swearing allegiance to the constitution was foundational to their public service. </p>
<p>However, for a crucial and powerful minority – most notably Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, President Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, former legal advisor John Eastman, and President Trump himself – it seemingly was not. </p>
<h2>Political violence and dissatisfaction with democracy</h2>
<p>Recent polling found only half of US citizens are satisfied with their democracy. Two-thirds said the US system of government <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/03/31/many-in-us-western-europe-say-their-political-system-needs-major-reform/">needs major changes</a>, if not a complete reform.</p>
<p>Such pessimistic attitudes are an outlier when compared, for example, to the <a href="https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/state-of-the-united-states-bidens-agenda-in-the-balance#democratic-backsliding-in-america">80% of Australians</a> who remain satisfied with their democracy. </p>
<p>Dissatisfaction with democracy and its institutions isn’t new in <a href="https://theconversation.com/joe-biden-wins-the-election-and-now-has-to-fight-the-one-thing-americans-agree-on-the-nations-deep-division-148106">modern US life</a>. </p>
<p>What’s new, however, is these trends coincide with a marked increase in the number of US citizens who support political violence. This ultimately resulted in the first ever attempted hostile takeover of Congress on January 6.</p>
<p>In May 1995, <a href="https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/7812537d-0ab0-4537-8fa3-794bda4b7d51/note/c0ed3cb7-2db8-45e1-89df-364b69e24c73.#page=1">fewer than 10%</a> of Americans said it was “justified for citizens to take violent action against the government”.</p>
<p>In October 2015, <a href="https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/7812537d-0ab0-4537-8fa3-794bda4b7d51/note/c0ed3cb7-2db8-45e1-89df-364b69e24c73.#page=1">23% agreed</a> with that statement. In December 2021, almost a year after the January 6 riots, <a href="https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/7812537d-0ab0-4537-8fa3-794bda4b7d51/note/c0ed3cb7-2db8-45e1-89df-364b69e24c73.#page=1">34% agreed</a> with that statement.</p>
<p>John Eastman, the renowned and once-respected lawyer who advised the Trump re-election campaign, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/january-6-hearings-june-16/h_9c12bbffa1fdba36db104fc25aaa4f02">reportedly accepted and anticipated such violence, saying</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>there’s been violence in the history of our country in order to protect the democracy, or to protect the republic.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The prevailing view among those seeking to overturn the election results was that the well-being of American democracy depended on the continued reign of President Trump.</p>
<p>Indeed, according to the testimony of Cassidy Hutchinson, former assistant to Trump’s Chief of Staff, rioting was expected and deemed necessary by many in Trump’s inner circle.</p>
<p>Hutchinson’s testimony gave a compelling account indicating that Trump and several others understood the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/16/1105683634/transcript-jan-6-committee">undemocratic</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/29/1108513190/cassidy-hutchinson-provides-explosive-testimony-during-the-jan-6-hearing">potentially violent</a> nature of their intended actions – planned <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/18/evidence-january-6-plot-corrupt/">many weeks in advance</a> – but pursued them undeterred.</p>
<p>To save US democracy, they undermined it.</p>
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<h2>What has the Jan 6 committee taught us?</h2>
<p>The January 6 Committee has shown that US democracy remains reliant on the actions of individuals. As Rep. Bennie Thompson, chair of the House committee, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/january-6-hearings-june-21/h_643f5a5486a1f392068df445020bf96c">put it</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A handful of election officials in several key states stood between Donald Trump and the upending of democracy.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>At the conclusion of the most recent and arguably the most consequential public hearings of the January 6 committee thus far, Cheney <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/06/28/trump-sought-lead-armed-mob-capitol-jan-6-aide-says/">reaffirmed</a> the importance of such individuals:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Our nation is preserved by those who abide by their oath to our constitution. Our nation is preserved by those who know the fundamental difference between right and wrong.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>When faced with the question of laws versus leaders, the founding fathers chose laws. But many of the people now under investigation by the committee will come under intense scrutiny as to whether they chose loyalty to Trump over laws.</p>
<h2>Will Trump be indicted?</h2>
<p>Many people would say an obvious path forward now lies with Attorney General Merrick Garland. He must decide whether he will take the unprecedented step of indicting a former president on charges ranging from sedition and inciting a riot to breaking campaign finance laws.</p>
<p>Although an estimated <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000181-ad84-d618-a99d-edf70cf50000&nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=0000014e-f115-dd93-ad7f-f91513e50001&nlid=630318">two-thirds of US citizens</a> support prosecuting Trump for his alleged efforts to overturn the election, even some Democrats have <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2022-06-24/the-pros-and-cons-of-charging-trump-with-a-crime">expressed concern</a> about the potential pitfalls involved.</p>
<p>There’s the danger of the Department of Justice appearing overly partisan, and also potentially setting a precedent in which opposing political parties indict former presidents as soon as they leave power.</p>
<p>But, perhaps more importantly, one former US federal prosecutor argued there’s also the high likelihood the former president would <a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-real-reason-feds-trump-20220310-fhbuuviedva35a27c3fvokdive-story.html">never be convicted</a> by a jury:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Despite a mountain of evidence that would convict most people many times over, Trump would not be convicted. Criminal convictions require a unanimous verdict. On a 12-person jury, there are going to be Trump supporters.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The US continues to grapple with the anti-royal concept of no individual being above the law.</p>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>The US has a history of reinventing itself in unique and unprecedented ways, most notably by founding a new nation based on laws instead of kings. </p>
<p>This critical moment, in which a former holder of the nation’s most powerful office is under investigation, gives the world’s oldest democracy an opportunity to embrace its revolutionary roots and finally reject monarchy in all its forms. </p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-should-be-preparing-for-the-end-of-american-democracy-176930">Canada should be preparing for the end of American democracy</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185687/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The investigation into the January 6 Capitol riots asks: is the nation’s well-being ensured by allegiance to its laws or its leaders? The founding fathers chose the former – could we say the same for Trump’s inner circle?Jared Mondschein, Senior Research Fellow, US Studies Centre, University of SydneyVictoria Cooper, Research associate, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1834162022-05-18T20:27:49Z2022-05-18T20:27:49ZAppealing to Trump (and his base) might have worked in Pennsylvania primaries – but it won’t play so well in the midterms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464079/original/file-20220518-17-6nn6jw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C54%2C4524%2C2968&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The doctor is in ... with Trump, at least.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022SenatePennsylvania/24762581aa57440d924d43859f4125bb/photo?Query=trump%20oz&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=32&currentItemNo=2">AP Photo/Gene J. Puska</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/17/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-us-senate.html">Pennsylvania primaries</a> of May 17, 2022, proved a good night for Donald Trump, a better one for “Trumpism” and a problem for moderates hoping for a candidate primed to capture the center in the upcoming midterms. </p>
<p>Trump’s officially endorsed Senate candidate, Mehmet Oz, is <a href="https://www.wgal.com/article/automatic-recount-pennsylvania-primary-dave-mccormick-dr-oz/40033116">currently in a tight race</a> with main GOP rival David McCormick – with the balloting set for a recount.</p>
<p>Both ran their primary campaign as Trumpist candidates and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/david-mccormick-donald-trump-endorsement-mehmet-oz/">vied for the former president’s nod</a>. Meanwhile, third place in the GOP race went to Kathy Barnette, a Fox News commentator who touts herself as <a href="https://time.com/6177232/kathy-barnette-pennsylvania-senate-republican-primary/">more MAGA than Trump</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that all three leading GOP candidates had the DNA of Trumpism in them suggests a couple of things. First, it indicates that echoing the policies, rhetorical style and personality of the former president can be an effective tool for Republican candidates seeking to appeal to the party base. And this is especially important in a <a href="https://www.fairvote.org/open_and_closed_primaries">closed-primary state</a> such as Pennsylvania, in which only party members have a say in who gets to run for Senate. </p>
<p>And second, it raises a question about the tried-and-tested plan of candidates’ appealing to the party base in the primary before pivoting closer to the center in the general election: Will that post-primary transformation be possible for Republicans in Pennsylvania – and elsewhere – in 2022?</p>
<h2>All local politics is national</h2>
<p>The Pennsylvania primary proved that the adage that “<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/all-politics-is-local-the-debate-and-the-graphs/">all politics is local</a>” has to some degree been inverted: Local and state elections are now run on national issues and are influenced by national figures.</p>
<p>But whereas a Trump endorsement in the recent Ohio primary <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jd-vance-poll-donald-trump-b2066919.html">resulted in an immediate surge</a> for his anointed candidate, J.D. Vance, Pennsylvania didn’t quite play out the same way.</p>
<p>Oz’s chance of winning was certainly <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/16/trump-oz-pennsylvania-senate-00032900">not harmed by getting Trump’s stamp of approval</a>. But he didn’t seem to take many votes off McCormick or Barnette in the process. In fact, some see Barnette <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/us/elections/kathy-barnette-pennsylvania-senate.html">faring better than expected</a> because Trump supporters decided to vote for her as “the more Trump” candidate, over Oz as the “official” Trump candidate. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Trump’s endorsement actually meant very little for Doug Mastriano, who won the state’s GOP primary for governor. Mastriano – an avidly Trumpian candidate who repeats the former president’s election conspiracy theories – was already <a href="https://www.wgal.com/article/franklin-and-marshall-poll-may-2022-pennsylvania-primary/39914699#">pulling ahead</a> by the time Trump made a late nod of approval in his favor.</p>
<p>The point is, whether these Republican candidates are seen as being faithful to Trump’s signature MAGA cause is what matters when it comes to winning in these primaries.</p>
<p>But here’s the rub for Republicans. That may work well enough in firing up the base during primary season, but it complicates the pivot to running against Democrats – and appealing to more moderate voters – in the midterm election. A candidate like Mastriano will have to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/far-right-election-denier-mastriano-wins-gop-race-governor-pennsylvani-rcna29136">defend positions like</a> a total ban on abortion, reversal of support for mail-in voting and conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. </p>
<p>Pennsylvania is seen as a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/17/seven-states-decide-senate-control-00032881">toss-up state</a> when it comes to the Senate vote. In such circumstances, appealing to the center becomes more important – party faithful tend to be locked in; swing voters are up for grabs.</p>
<p>Any GOP candidate who hitches his or her wagon to Trumpian policies and rhetoric may find it harder to appeal to centrists – and may actually alienate some moderate Republicans.</p>
<h2>Circling back to the center</h2>
<p>A similar dynamic played out in Pennsylvania in the Democratic primary race for Senate, but with success found by positioning policies to the left of the center. One of the more progressive candidates, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/17/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-primary/">prevailed against</a> the moderate Rep. Conor Lamb. </p>
<p>But even so, Fetterman has, I believe, more room to maneuver come the general election. Fetterman has experience running for – and winning – a statewide office before. Moreover, he has carefully cultivated an “everyman” image, which could play well against either Oz or hedge fund CEO McCormick. Even so, he will have to defend more progressive positions that could also turn off moderate Republicans. </p>
<p>Success in the Pennsylvania primaries came to those candidates able to position themselves away from the center and more in line with the party’s ideological extreme. But it is the Republican candidate, in vying against others for Trump’s blessing as well as his base, who might find it more difficult to circle back to the center during the midterms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel J. Mallinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The three leading candidates in the GOP Senate primary race in Pennsylvania all hitched their wagons to Trump. But will that make it harder for the Republican winner to win the center come the fall?Daniel J. Mallinson, Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Administration, School of Public Affairs, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1498852020-11-19T14:06:48Z2020-11-19T14:06:48ZUS colleges report a 43% decline in new international student enrollment, and not just because of the pandemic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370145/original/file-20201118-13-ydtwd2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5848%2C3907&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The decline in international enrollment will most likely cause colleges and universities to lose money.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/asian-mixed-race-students-having-meeting-with-their-royalty-free-image/1273343535?adppopup=true">Marcus Chung/E+ via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the fourth year in a row, the number of <a href="https://opendoorsdata.org/">international students enrolled at U.S. colleges and universities has declined</a>. This is according to data released this month by the State Department and the Institute of International Education.</p>
<p>The fact that the decline largely took place during Donald Trump’s presidency is no mere coincidence. The Trump administration has <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-06-20/visa-rules-are-restricting-future-international-students-us">tightened restrictions</a> on who can study here and has also sent <a href="https://apnews.com/article/race-and-ethnicity-donald-trump-technology-travel-virus-outbreak-d78eb3f2fc961a848fcbba0ae01218fa">signals that students from abroad are not welcome</a>.</p>
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<p>As the Trump administration comes to an end, the new international enrollment data serve as sort of a <a href="https://thepienews.com/news/international-education-number-one-priority-for-us-state-dept-eca/">failing grade for an administration that claimed</a> international education would be a top priority. The Trump administration also <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZprpFIfiovc">made commitments to increase the number</a> of international students in the U.S. and <a href="https://thepienews.com/news/perceived-barriers-driving-prospective-students-away-from-us/">boasted</a> of having spent more on recruiting international students than any other administration in history.</p>
<p>Important as it is to have global perspectives at American colleges and universities, the steady decline in international enrollment is about more than that. As a <a href="https://news.umbc.edu/david-di-maria-umbcs-new-vice-provost-for-international-education-studies-debunks-common-study-abroad-myths/">specialist in international education</a>, I know that the continued decrease in students from abroad will negatively affect U.S. students and the American economy.</p>
<h2>Still over 1 million</h2>
<p>There are currently just <a href="https://opendoorsdata.org/data/international-students/academic-level/">over one 1 million international students</a> studying in the U.S. This has been the case since 2015. This current figure includes 851,957 students enrolled at higher education institutions and 223,539 people engaged in Optional Practical Training, a program that allows recent international graduates to remain in the U.S. temporarily to obtain work or volunteer experience related to their major, according to data I analyzed from the Institute of International Education. </p>
<p>The Optional Practical Training is important to consider when you examine trends in international enrollment in the era of Trump. The reason is that the true impact of the Trump administration on international enrollment is masked by <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/11/21/obamas-immigration-actions-bring-relief-for-college-students">Obama-era policies</a> that permitted more international students to remain in the U.S. for longer periods through the Optional Practical Training program.</p>
<p>As these people complete their training programs, the total number of international students will likely once again dip below the 1 million mark.</p>
<h2>Where they are from</h2>
<p>While the students came from more than 220 countries and territories, <a href="https://opendoorsdata.org/data/international-scholars/all-places-of-origin/">China and India</a> accounted for 53% of the total, the data show.</p>
<p>About one-third of international students – 34.8% – enrolled in graduate-level coursework. The next-biggest group was those enrolled in bachelor’s degree programs – 33.1%. Associate degree and non-degree studies accounted for 5.9% and 5.4%, respectively, of international student enrollment in the U.S. The remaining 20.8% were participating in Optional Practical Training. </p>
<p>Just over half of all students from abroad – 52% – pursued majors in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, or STEM.</p>
<h2>How they pay for school</h2>
<p>At the undergraduate level, <a href="https://opendoorsdata.org/data/international-students/international-students-primary-source-of-funding/">83.9% of international students</a> rely on personal and family income to pay for their education in the U.S.</p>
<p>Five percent rely on a foreign government or university, and 0.4% rely on a foreign private sponsor. In all, 89.3% are pumping money from abroad into the U.S. economy, while the remaining 10.7% rely primarily on funding from a U.S. source. At the graduate level, 60.7% of international students rely primarily on international funds, since 36.5% received funding from their college in the U.S. These graduate students usually get this funding in exchange for helping faculty with grant-funded research projects or helping teach undergraduate courses in their discipline. The remaining 2.8% received funding from other U.S. sources.</p>
<p>Most of the money spent by international students – 55% – is spent within the higher education sector. This in turn helps colleges <a href="http://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/The-Importance-of-International-Students.NFAP-Policy-Brief.October-20171.pdf">support high-tech academic programs</a>. It also helps <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/prestoncooper2/2020/06/01/foreign-student-enrollment-at-us-universities-may-plummet-this-fall/?sh=6b601c6daa76">keep tuition lower</a> for students from the U.S. </p>
<p>But a drop in international students doesn’t hurt just colleges’ bottom lines – it <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-11/coronavirus-pandemic-international-students-keeping-college-towns-in-business">harms local economies</a> as well.</p>
<p>When you subtract all funding from U.S. sources, one analysis found, international students still <a href="https://www.nafsa.org/policy-and-advocacy/policy-resources/nafsa-international-student-economic-value-tool-v2">contributed US$38.7 billion to the U.S. economy</a> in 2019. These dollars supported 415,996 American jobs, based on an <a href="https://www.nafsa.org/sites/default/files/media/document/isev-methodology-2020.pdf">economic analysis</a>.</p>
<p>Also, consider that <a href="https://www.nafsa.org/policy-and-advocacy/policy-resources/nafsa-international-student-economic-value-tool-v2">18% of every dollar</a> spent by international students goes to apartment rentals and other forms of accommodation; 11% goes to restaurants, 9% to retail and the rest to other sectors of the economy.</p>
<p>No matter how you slice the data, the fact remains that international students make positive contributions to the U.S. economy. In fact, <a href="https://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2018-BILLION-DOLLAR-STARTUPS.NFAP-Policy-Brief.2018.pdf">1 in 4 $1 billion startup companies</a> in the U.S. had a founder who first arrived on a student visa. </p>
<h2>Looking forward</h2>
<p>Many international students have <a href="https://www.chronicle.com/article/bidens-victory-has-elated-international-students-but-the-road-to-lasting-reform-is-long">reacted positively</a> to the victory of President-elect Joseph Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, I believe it will take years to reverse the trend of <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2020/11/12/international-student-numbers-us-high-schools-decline">declining international enrollment</a> that intensified under Trump. </p>
<p>It is true that there was a decline during the last year of the Obama administration, but that was mostly due to the fact that the Brazilian and Saudi governments <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2016/07/18/saudi-student-numbers-fall-many-campuses">curtailed major study-abroad scholarship programs</a> for their citizens. This resulted in a drop of <a href="https://opendoorsdata.org/data/international-students/leading-places-of-origin/">10,586 in Brazilian students and 8,670 fewer Saudi students</a> between 2014 and 2016. The situation got worse as the U.S. came to be <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-05-15/trumps-immigration-rhetoric-causing-drop-international-student-admissions">seen by international students</a> as an unwelcoming nation under Trump.</p>
<h2>After the pandemic</h2>
<p>The Institute of International Education also partnered with nine other higher education associations to assess international student enrollment amid the COVID-19 crisis. The <a href="https://www.iie.org/-/media/Files/Corporate/Open-Doors/Special-Reports/Fall-2020-Snapshot-Report---Full-Report.ashx?la=en&hash=D337E4E9C8C9FACC9E3D53609A7A19B96783C5DB">most alarming facts from the survey</a> are a 43% drop in new international student enrollment and a 16% reduction in total international enrollment in the fall of 2020. The study also found that 1 in 5 international students are reportedly studying online from abroad, and roughly 40,000 international students have chosen to defer their enrollment to a future term.</p>
<p>All said, the findings reflect a lot of uncertainty for the future of U.S. colleges, which were already – before the COVID-19 pandemic began – anticipating that <a href="https://www.cupahr.org/issue/feature/higher-ed-enrollment-cliff/">overall enrollment will drop by more than 15%</a> after the year 2025 because of record-low birthrates in the U.S. that began in 2008 and continue to this day.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Some experts attribute this decline in the birthrate to <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2018/01/08/new-book-argues-most-colleges-are-about-face-significant-decline">the 2008 financial crisis</a>. People may simply have delayed having children or had fewer children because of that era’s economic hardships. And 17 years later, in 2025, there are bound to be fewer students and more empty seats in college classrooms. </p>
<p>The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to be <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/an-economist-explains-what-covid-19-has-done-to-the-global-economy/">three times worse</a> than the 2008 financial crisis. Consequently, colleges could experience another major decrease in overall enrollment caused by similar demographic changes by 2037. Success in recruiting students from abroad will be key to offsetting these declines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149885/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David L. Di Maria does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The number of students studying in the United States from other countries has continued to fall during the Trump presidency. An expert explains what that means for US students and the US economy.David L. Di Maria, Associate Vice Provost for International Education, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1104062019-01-29T11:44:32Z2019-01-29T11:44:32ZWhat are Muslim prayer rugs?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255439/original/file-20190124-196228-1sikc3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Muslims can pray anywhere in the world using the prayer carpet.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Muslims-in-Hollywood/a7d6715d97494b5eb17fe03347a25bb9/212/0">AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1086252588088082432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-1599397641671435474.ampproject.net%2F1901081935550%2Fframe.html">recent tweet</a>, President Trump stated that ranchers have been finding prayer rugs scattered along the U.S.-Mexico border. Late last year, <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1054351078328885248">he tweeted</a> that “criminals and unknown Middle Easterners” were mixed in with the caravan heading to the U.S.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=FvTDlCsAAAAJ&hl=en">My research</a> indicates that Islamophobia often targets visible signs of Muslimness, such as modest clothing like headscarves, as well as prayer rituals and mosques. This time it is the prayer rug.</p>
<p>These fearmongering tweets bear an uncanny resemblance to a 2018 action film, <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/entertainment/movies/sicario-day-of-the-soldado-movie-review-20180627.html">“Sicario: Day of the Soldado</a>.” Its trailer shows a scene of a Muslim man praying and a row of prayer rugs at the border. In the movie, U.S. officials who find the rugs use them as “evidence” that Muslims are entering the U.S. illegally in order to expand the jurisdiction of the war on terror.</p>
<p>Other than these recent mentions, carpets found fame through Disney’s “Aladdin,” where they were imagined to have the power to fly. However, prayer carpets actually have a much more mundane daily use among Muslims. </p>
<h2>Much more than a plain carpet</h2>
<p>Ritual purity is extremely important for Muslim prayers practices. As Islamic studies scholar <a href="https://as.nyu.edu/content/nyu-as/as/faculty/marion-h-katz.html">Marion Katz</a> explains, prayer carpets <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=allSNvtTpZwC&lpg=PR9&ots=GBfhgR7H4P&dq=islamic%20prayer%20carpet&lr&pg=PA23#v=onepage&q=%20carpet&f=false">provide a protective layer</a> between the worshiper and the ground, protecting the clothing from anything on ground that is polluting.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255632/original/file-20190125-108334-1ylx7pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255632/original/file-20190125-108334-1ylx7pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255632/original/file-20190125-108334-1ylx7pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255632/original/file-20190125-108334-1ylx7pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255632/original/file-20190125-108334-1ylx7pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255632/original/file-20190125-108334-1ylx7pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255632/original/file-20190125-108334-1ylx7pg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A prayer niche in a mosque.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/royluck/31897950555">Roy Luck</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://muslimheritage.com/article/muslim-carpet">Muslim carpets</a> have been traditionally produced for centuries in Muslim majority regions, sometimes known as “the rug belt,” spanning from Morocco to Central Asia and northern India. There is a wide variety of designs and materials. Islamic art historian <a href="https://www.umass.edu/arthistory/member/walter-denny">Walter B. Denny</a>, in <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=D7vDBQAAQBAJ&lpg=PA5&ots=WFU05K0dne&dq=islamic%20prayer%20rug&lr&pg=PA5#v=onepage&q=islamic%20prayer%20rug&f=false">“How to Read Islamic Carpets,”</a> explains the different materials and symbolism in weaves used in these carpets. </p>
<p>For example, it is common to find symbols such as the prayer niche, a recess in the wall indicating the direction of Mecca; also a lamp, which is a reference to God; as well as flowers and trees that symbolize the abundance of nature in God’s paradise. </p>
<p>Prayer carpets that are used in homes are generally sized for one individual. Those used in mosques are much bigger, <a href="http://islamicart.museumwnf.org/database_item.php?id=object;ISL;tr;Mus01;17;en">often with a motif showing a row of arches</a> to indicate where each worshiper should stand in prayer.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255438/original/file-20190124-196250-2tb7dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255438/original/file-20190124-196250-2tb7dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255438/original/file-20190124-196250-2tb7dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255438/original/file-20190124-196250-2tb7dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255438/original/file-20190124-196250-2tb7dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255438/original/file-20190124-196250-2tb7dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255438/original/file-20190124-196250-2tb7dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prayer carpets in mosques have a row of arches.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Muslim-Day-Oklahoma/539b10997667400897d9e9f7aaf5c65c/139/0">AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Islamic carpets have been popular for centuries in Europe and beyond, often picking up symbolism, social meaning and ways of being used. Islamic carpets <a href="https://www.metmuseum.org/toah/hd/isca/hd_isca.htm">were popular</a> among the wealthy of Europe, displayed proudly on the floor of their living rooms and on the walls. </p>
<p>Carpets designs have come down through generations. Some depict simple geometric patterns in rough wool, while other are <a href="https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/452553">produced by professional artisans</a> for the elite and show hunting scenes and elaborate scenes of paradise. </p>
<h2>Different costs and forms of practice</h2>
<p>Practices vary according to personal and sectarian preference among Muslims. </p>
<p>For everyday use, Muslims purchase simple prayer carpets, mass-produced in Turkey, throughout the Middle East and even China. For use outside, they often carry a thinner travel rug. There are also high-priced versions. An antique carpet was auctioned for <a href="https://www.architecturaldigest.com/gallery/most-expensive-carpets-at-auction-slideshow">US$4.3 million in 2009</a> and an <a href="http://www.sothebys.com/en/auctions/ecatalogue/2015/carpets-textiles-n09323/lot.51.html">Ottoman-era prayer rug</a> sold for $30,000 in 2015. </p>
<p>Not all sects of Muslims use the prayer carpet. <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=YF4BAwAAQBAJ&lpg=PR1&pg=PR8#v=onepage&q&f=false">Shiite Muslims usually pray</a> on a clay disk called a “turba” in Arabic and “mohr” in Persian. This disk is often made from <a href="https://www.al-islam.org/articles/why-prostrate-karbalas-turba-yasin-t-al-jibouri">soil from Karbala</a>, the place of martyrdom of Hussein, Prophet Muhammad’s grandson in today’s Iraq, or another sacred site. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/utn94yJIAdU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Shiite Muslims use a clay disk.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They often place the disk on top of a prayer carpet. When Shiites prostrate their foreheads on the floor during prayer, they want their forehead to be in contact with an organic material rather than the synthetic fibers of a carpet. So, depending on circumstance, they might also place any natural material such as a small straw mat where they pray.</p>
<p>It is highly unlikely for Muslims to leave behind their prayer rugs or to even carry one on a perilous journey through the harsh desert.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110406/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rose S. Aslan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump recently tweeted about prayer rugs being left along the border. Many may not know the role and history of Muslim prayer rugs and why they are not likely to be left behind.Rose S. Aslan, Assistant Professor of Religion, California Lutheran UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/759792017-05-19T01:01:13Z2017-05-19T01:01:13ZChild anxiety and parenting in the Trump era<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170007/original/file-20170518-12263-1jigwfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What can parents do to help their children manage the political climate?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Richard Vogel</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Lucy,” a shy, intelligent six-year-old, missed three days of school because she had stomachaches. The symptoms started the day after Lucy witnessed a loud argument while waiting for the bus with her babysitter. A “scary man” shouted at people waiting: “Watch out, you’re all going to be deported now!” Lucy didn’t know what “deported” meant, but she knew it was very bad. People told the man to leave and shouted insults at him that Lucy didn’t understand. The man finally left, shaking his fist and threatening “police action.” Lucy held her babysitter’s hand, looked up and noticed tears in her sitter’s eyes. Lucy’s stomach started to rumble. Sadly, cases like Lucy’s are becoming increasingly common.</p>
<p>I’m a child and adolescent psychiatrist and psychoanalyst with expertise in anxiety disorders. Since November’s election and the general political upheaval that accompanied it, medical professionals across the country have observed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/25/donald-trump-immigration-deportation-children-doctors">an uptick in agitation and anxiety</a> among our young patients.</p>
<p>What do we know about how anxiety develops in children? And what can parents do to reduce it?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170033/original/file-20170518-12257-fhprh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170033/original/file-20170518-12257-fhprh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170033/original/file-20170518-12257-fhprh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170033/original/file-20170518-12257-fhprh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170033/original/file-20170518-12257-fhprh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170033/original/file-20170518-12257-fhprh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170033/original/file-20170518-12257-fhprh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170033/original/file-20170518-12257-fhprh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children can get swept up in the heat of political rhetoric.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Julie Jacobson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Kids take on the grown-ups’ anxiety</h2>
<p>Strong <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/psychology/social-psychology/emotional-contagion?format=PB&isbn=9780521449489#pAfM0TVKhJatR00Z.97">emotions are contagious</a> – particularly anxiety. And while anxiety spreads easily among us all, children are the most vulnerable. Elementary school children lack a fully developed ability to solve problems on their own, making it difficult for them to separate other people’s worries (especially adults’) from their own frightening fantasies.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, although kids tend to take on their parents’ worries, it can be hard for parents to control anxiety – even in normal times. But these are not normal times: Politicians, the media and ordinary citizens on both sides are hurling heated rhetoric across the aisle, all of which <a href="http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2017/02/why-america-is-so-stressed-out-politics-politics-politics.html">is fueling anxiety</a>.</p>
<p>When upset enough, people can start to think and behave in less rational, more primitive ways. Mental health professionals call this “<a href="http://www.anselm.edu/homepage/dbanach/h-freud-lectures.htm">regression</a>”: when people go from adult, rational behavior to a more emotionally charged, less reasoned way of thinking and acting. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170018/original/file-20170518-12231-1b4j7yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170018/original/file-20170518-12231-1b4j7yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170018/original/file-20170518-12231-1b4j7yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170018/original/file-20170518-12231-1b4j7yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170018/original/file-20170518-12231-1b4j7yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170018/original/file-20170518-12231-1b4j7yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170018/original/file-20170518-12231-1b4j7yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170018/original/file-20170518-12231-1b4j7yk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Public displays of politically charged rhetoric seem to be everywhere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Paul Sakuma</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These days, I’ve personally observed this sort of overly emotional, regressive behavior more and more frequently – often in public places, like on the subway, where people seem more ready than in recent memory to dispense insults.</p>
<p>As a child psychiatrist, I’m concerned when I see emotionally charged language routinely expressed in public discourse, often in the form of intolerance toward those with differing political beliefs or divergent racial/ethnic/sexual orientation backgrounds.</p>
<p>Times of emotional upheaval (and the regressive behavior that accompanies it) can effectively <a href="https://www.adaa.org/living-with-anxiety/children/childhood-anxiety-disorders">terrorize children</a>, causing them to become traumatized, highly anxious or have difficulty sleeping, eating or focusing in school.</p>
<h2>Developmental factors in processing anxiety</h2>
<p>Before third or fourth grade, children haven’t yet formed the rational, organized thought processes that developmental psychologist <a href="http://www.piaget.org/aboutPiaget.html">Jean Piaget</a> called “<a href="https://www.simplypsychology.org/concrete-operational.html">concrete operations</a>.” Before reaching this stage of cognitive development, children don’t rely on cause and effect. Rather, magical (nonrational) explanations predominate. Noises in the middle of the night are as likely to come from monsters as heating pipes. The school bus is as likely to appear because they blinked and wished it as because it has a schedule. Conflicts unambiguously feature “good guys” and “bad guys.”</p>
<p>Anxious fantasies can feel as real as the everyday world. For Lucy, who experienced her worries as physical symptoms (stomachaches and even vomiting the next time she got on the bus), it required patience and attention to translate her symptoms back to language so she could feel more in control.</p>
<p>In general, adults rely on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14616730500245906">a routine ability</a> to read their own emotions and those of others. These skills are newly developed in young children and can collapse in scary situations or in the face of parental upheaval. When children become anxious enough, this collapse can <a href="http://www.mbtchild.com/">spiral</a> into an impaired ability to understand the world and a growing sense of isolation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170019/original/file-20170518-12250-p3z0mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170019/original/file-20170518-12250-p3z0mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170019/original/file-20170518-12250-p3z0mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170019/original/file-20170518-12250-p3z0mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170019/original/file-20170518-12250-p3z0mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170019/original/file-20170518-12250-p3z0mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170019/original/file-20170518-12250-p3z0mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Parent anxiety can turn into child anxiety.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mother-child-hug-637550848?src=-Tf7QGqes-d9uK_b0J1Fxw-1-75">Tofe Allen / Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can parents do?</h2>
<p>How can parents navigate this <a href="http://time.com/4353606/anger-america-enough-already/">flood tide of personal and community upset</a> and raise relatively healthy kids? Parents always have a hard job, but I’ve seen the aggressive political climate complicate the ever-daunting task of raising children. Parents want to remain truthful to children to underscore trust, while also gauging what children can tolerate hearing without becoming overwhelmed. This can get more difficult when parents feel overwhelmed themselves.</p>
<p>Parents should reflect and reinforce their own values. Lucy’s parents couldn’t pretend that her bus stop incident didn’t happen, didn’t matter or wasn’t frightening. They needed to acknowledge how frightened she felt, while <a href="http://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2016/11/10/parents-talk-to-kids-trump-anxiety">reassuring her</a> that school had not become dangerous.</p>
<p>What parents tell children is important, but <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00207284.1966.11642910">how parents act is also a crucial guide for kids</a>. In today’s political climate, it’s more important than ever for parents to be good role models. That means that values like kindness, patience, respect for others, taking turns and sharing should be developed early and demonstrated often.</p>
<p>Listening to others is crucial, even when we’re angry. Bullying, violence and name-calling are behaviors that parents should take care not to model for their children. (One survey of 2,000 K-12 teachers suggested an <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/20160413/trump-effect-impact-presidential-campaign-our-nations-schools">increase in school bullying</a> during the 2016 election.)</p>
<p>Parents’ roles are more important now than ever. How parents respond in these challenging times can shape <a href="https://www.adaa.org/living-with-anxiety/children-and-teens/tips-parents-and-caregivers/help-your-child-manage-traumatic-">a child’s ability to grow normally or become traumatized</a>. How they channel anxiety and rage makes a difference.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the significant impact parents have on their children’s mental health and well-being may, in turn, be crucial to maintaining a rational society. In my view, this is the small, partial contribution that parents can make to this country’s current upheaval.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170010/original/file-20170518-12266-1j3ti73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170010/original/file-20170518-12266-1j3ti73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170010/original/file-20170518-12266-1j3ti73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170010/original/file-20170518-12266-1j3ti73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170010/original/file-20170518-12266-1j3ti73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170010/original/file-20170518-12266-1j3ti73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170010/original/file-20170518-12266-1j3ti73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even young kids are participating in the public discourse. What can parents do when things get heated?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Elaine Thompson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75979/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara Milrod receives funding from The Clinical Translational Science Center at Weill Cornell Medical College and a Fund in the New York Community Trust established by DeWitt Wallace. Previously funded by two grants at the National Institute of Mental Health and the Brain and Behavior Foundation (NARSAD)
</span></em></p>With emotionally charged rhetoric from both sides of the aisle and many parents in a heightened state of distress, children are more vulnerable than ever to anxiety. What can parents do?Barbara Milrod, Professor of Psychiatry, Medical College, Cornell UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/699522016-12-07T11:35:43Z2016-12-07T11:35:43ZWhy Lord of the Flies is the perfect Christmas gift for 2016<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148872/original/image-20161206-25768-acg8mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alaina_marie/4409427873">Alaina Buzas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s the story of a society in which democracy descends into tribalism and tyranny. One of a civilisation built by those committed to the rule of law who turn on each other, scapegoating the marginalised and powerless. Ultimately, it’s a reminder of a human barbarism lying just beneath the fragile veneer of decency.</p>
<p>Sound familiar? That’s right: it’s the plot of Lord of the Flies, a novel about a group of English boys who survive a plane crash and are marooned on an island in the South Pacific. After a short period of harmony, a power struggle between the two leaders, Ralph and Jack, causes the group to split. Jack wins out by promising to hunt and kill a common enemy – the strange phantom living in the jungle known only as the Beast. It’s a successful campaign of fear and division.</p>
<p>Lord of the Flies was first published in 1954, largely in response to the rise of Nazism and the horrors of World War II. And yet, in many ways, it speaks directly to the world of 2016, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/austerity-2893">austerity</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/refugee-crisis-20183">refugee crisis</a>, Brexit and the rise of Donald Trump have emboldened nationalist fervour and stoked societal fragmentation.</p>
<p>The racialised language of tribal “savagery” in the novel quite rightly makes contemporary readers bristle. It marks author William Golding’s failure to move beyond a fundamentally eurocentric and colonialist view of the world. But ultimately, the book’s message is that “savagery” is universal. It is not racially or nationally defined. It’s a moral that encourages us to reflect on just how far-right extremism has crept back into mainstream politics throughout Europe and America.</p>
<p>The far right traffics in the populist language of national allegiance to legitimate racism. America’s so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/alt-right-31564">alt-right</a>, France’s National Front, UKIP and xenophobic Leavers in Britain all feed off dissatisfaction with globalisation to create enemies within. The solution to complex economic and political realities for these groups is as simple as hunting the Beast. Jack lives on in Trump, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/marine-le-pen-2938">Le Pen</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/nigel-farage-5524">Farage</a>.</p>
<h2>The voice of reason</h2>
<p>In counterpoint to Jack’s sloganeering and scaremongering, Lord of the Flies gives us Piggy and Simon. The former is a firm believer in scientific progress, but he is also aware that human progress will be halted if “we get frightened of people”. Piggy is debilitated when the boys steal his glasses – his means of vision and clarity – and use them to start a fire. They instantly lose control of the flames, leading to the destruction of part of their new home. Rather than representing the first act of a united civilisation, the making of fire signals the disunity that splits the group and leads, finally, to Piggy’s death at the hands of Jack’s tribe.</p>
<p>If Piggy is “progress” then Simon is “reason”. He knows that the Beast isn’t real and is in fact borne of the boys’ own fear. “However Simon thought of the beast,” we’re told, “there rose before his inward sight the picture of a human at once heroic and sick.” Despite this insight, Simon is regarded as weak and is shunned.</p>
<p>After a lone expedition, he discovers that the Beast is no more than a dead airman – a casualty of the war raging far off in the distance, whose parachute has swept him onto the island. Simon returns to camp to share the news, but the boys’ imagination awakens a blind desire for blood. They no longer see a fellow human being, only a threat to their society. Simon’s screams are drowned out by the “tearing of teeth and claws”.</p>
<p>During his 1962 lecture tour of American universities, Golding discussed his reasons for writing Lord of the Flies:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>My book was to say: you think that now the [Second World War] is over and an evil thing destroyed, you are safe because you are naturally kind and decent. But I know why the thing rose in Germany. I know it could happen in any country.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So far, so bleak. And yet, while Golding depicts humankind’s propensity for prejudice, there is a small glimmer of hope. After fleeing the manhunt ordered by Jack, Ralph encounters a uniformed naval officer whose vessel has landed after seeing the smoke rising from the scorched island. As Ralph weeps “for the end of innocence”, the officer turns around to let his eyes rest on his warship in the distance. This final image of the book is a moment of self-reflection. In the savagery and environmental catastrophe of the boys’ rudimentary civilisation, the adult world is afforded a vision of its own folly.</p>
<p>The moral of Lord of the Flies isn’t just that barbarity knows no borders. It’s also that it can be prevented from flourishing through the commitment to a shared humanity. “If humanity has a future on this planet of a hundred million years,” said Golding in his 1962 lecture, “it is unthinkable that it should spend those aeons in a ferment of national self-satisfaction and chauvinistic idiocies.”</p>
<p>The novel may not be a heart-warming Christmas tale, but it gifts us an unflinching portrayal of a society driven by fear. For readers in 2016, it remains both an urgent warning and an invocation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69952/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Whittle receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>The famous story of a group of schoolboys trapped on an island is more than a little reminiscent of the real world right now.Matthew Whittle, Teaching Fellow in English (Contemporary and Postcolonial), University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/691712016-11-22T12:14:39Z2016-11-22T12:14:39ZUrban activists are forging diverse communities in a divided Europe – here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146813/original/image-20161121-4544-zkcwo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tweedyson/4359826997/sizes/o/">stweedy/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Throughout 2016, politicians and pundits have been caught off guard time and time again by the successes of populist politics – first Brexit, then Trump and the rise of far-right parties across Europe. Casting about for answers, advocates of the centre are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-real-reason-trump-won-white-fright-67899">trying to account</a> for unexpected shifts in the allegiances of white, working-class and rural voters. </p>
<p>But instead trying to understand why particular demographic groups are attracted to anti-immigrant, anti-establishment rhetoric, perhaps it’s better to ask what can be done to bridge the social divides it creates. </p>
<p>We’ve been carrying out research into local responses to national economic and political crises. <a href="http://www.woolf.cam.ac.uk/research/research-projects-detail.asp?ItemID=645">Our study</a> compared charitable programmes and services, interfaith collaborations and economic initiatives across four capital cities of Europe: London, Rome, Paris and Berlin. We wanted to understand how local relationships change when people are faced with scarce resources, violence and a sudden influx of refugees.</p>
<p>Rather than becoming more hostile and divided under these circumstances, we actually found that individuals and groups of different ethnic, national, socio-economic and religious backgrounds build networks and cooperate, in order to protect the local community. </p>
<p>This can take the form of supporting a charity, or promoting small businesses and employment opportunities. One example is <a href="http://www.eatorheat.org">a food bank</a> in London, which depends on donations from both Muslim and Christian supporters. Another is <a href="http://www.fluechtlingskirche.de">a Protestant refugee project</a> in Berlin, which has reached out to the secular, and often militantly atheist, young population, who are seeking ways to support diversity and multicultural life in their city.</p>
<h2>Catholic care</h2>
<p>Religious leaders are also taking on a significant role in community activism. They are increasingly responsible for uniting individuals of different backgrounds, and espousing values of liberalism, universalism and tolerance. </p>
<p>For instance, the Italian state has struggled to deal with the arrival of hundreds of thousands of migrants – particularly those who want to travel on to other European countries such as France or the UK. While the national government remains largely disinterested, <a href="http://www.scalabrini634.it">Catholic charities</a> have intervened to offer protection and basic hospitality. </p>
<p>The assumption of responsibility has become politicised – yet, rather than seeking the protection of a particular demographic, local activists criticise policies that discriminate against migrants and increase poverty. In Rome, makeshift camps hosting refugees have become spaces for collective political action. We witnessed refugees and volunteers routinely venturing from their temporary shelters into the city centre, to protest and demand representation and protection. </p>
<h2>A broader view</h2>
<p>The initiatives that do work with the state – such as the Paris-based organisation <a href="http://www.mozaikrh.com">Mozaik RH</a>, which helps young people from minority and low-income backgrounds find jobs – point to failures to live up to national values such as “egalité”. They call for public and private sector employers to hire more applicants from diverse origins to promote equal life opportunities.</p>
<p>The aim of all of these initiatives is to build and sustain a local infrastructure for collective agency that demonstrates power and control. Faith can inspire individual motivation, but the local community and its initiatives are represented as being inclusive – and progress is associated with cooperation between diverse actors. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146974/original/image-20161122-24543-15xgbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146974/original/image-20161122-24543-15xgbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146974/original/image-20161122-24543-15xgbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146974/original/image-20161122-24543-15xgbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146974/original/image-20161122-24543-15xgbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146974/original/image-20161122-24543-15xgbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146974/original/image-20161122-24543-15xgbz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Church and community.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As one Church of England vicar put it: “We need to broaden our scope” to bring in groups with different affiliations, or none at all – “we need to broaden our view of what religion is”. In other words, religion is about expressing values and public solidarity as much as professing a particular faith. </p>
<p>But can these very local, urban examples be scaled up into a national political strategy? One problem is that these initiatives are typically “quiet”. They may attract local or even national media attention – such as the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/salaamshalomkitchen/">Muslim-Jewish café</a> for low-income residents in Nottingham (funded by <a href="http://www.cuf.org.uk/near-neighbours">Near Neighbours</a>). But they succeed because they are about everyday cooperation, rather than by expressing anger or discontent. </p>
<h2>Local lessons</h2>
<p>That said, there are a few lessons that national political parties can draw from local experience. For one thing, local activists trust government officials who enable and appreciate community cooperation – even when they have little influence over its processes and outcomes.</p>
<p>What’s more, the argument that cooperation can benefit everyone is persuasive and effective. Participants recognise the mutual benefits of sharing assets such as buildings. They also realise that cooperation offers an opportunity to make real changes – ultimately achieving greater control over their own lives.</p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, local activism across countries and neighbourhoods evokes republican notions of citizenship and an understanding of a general public good – as opposed to competition for resources based on ethnic, racial, or economic grounds. However, it’s still important for state authorities to safeguard rights such as freedom of expression and access to public benefits. This kind of citizenship is always a work in progress, so people are motivated to continue helping throughout their lives. </p>
<p>This motivation transcends periods of crisis and changes in government, as well as transformations in the make-up of the local population. By recognising the cooperation across divisions that is already going on, it is possible for political parties – especially those on the left – to start rebuilding themselves for the future. They can argue for effective, collective engagement to confront the short- and long-term challenges facing us all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69171/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shana Cohen receives funding from Porticus Trust, Templeton World Charity Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jan-Jonathan Bock and Samuel Everett do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Religious organisations and community initiatives succeed where disoriented liberal politicians fail.Shana Cohen, Senior Research Associate, University of CambridgeJan-Jonathan Bock, Research Associate and Affiliated Anthropologist, University of CambridgeSamuel Everett, Research Associate, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/690412016-11-22T04:50:57Z2016-11-22T04:50:57ZFixing an ailing Obamacare: four ways to address rising costs and less choice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146695/original/image-20161121-30364-1ble1ts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How might US president-elect Donald Trump address Obamacare's rising costs? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/154183421?src=DKwbS5YekkQdg9M4VlTpZA-1-4&id=154183421&size=medium_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Repealing <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-obamacare-18642">Obamacare</a> was central to both <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/health-care/">Donald Trump’s</a>, and the <a href="https://prod-cdn-static.gop.com/static/home/data/platform.pdf">Republican party’s</a>, policy platforms. The President-elect has since <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/12/donald-trump-appears-to-soften-stance-on-range-of-pledges">softened</a> his stance and there are several Republican proposals to replace Obamacare with a more viable alternative.</p>
<p>Obamacare involves establishing state insurance marketplaces (or exchanges) on which people buy insurance. These are like price comparison websites on which people can buy subsidised insurance. People can also get insurance through their employers or directly from insurers. </p>
<p>All people must have insurance (under threat of penalty) and insurers cannot refuse people with pre-existing conditions or charge them more. Most state marketplaces work independently, with different plans available to residents of different states. In offering insurance, companies must spend at least 80% of premiums on healthcare and quality improvement.</p>
<p>Key criticisms of Obamacare have included rising premiums and fewer available policies. Repealing Obamacare without a replacement could have “<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-look-affordable-care-act-nick-gerhart">devastating consequences</a>”, according to the Iowa Insurance Commissioner. People’s insurance would be disrupted and insurers would face losses as sick people rush to have procedures before their cover ends. </p>
<p>So what has led to Obamacare’s problems, what needs to be addressed and what might alternatives to Obamacare look like?</p>
<h2>Rising premiums, less choice</h2>
<p>Obamacare has become decreasingly popular in recent years. Insurance premiums will <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/10/25/obamacare-insurance-premiums-2017-healthcare/">reportedly</a> rise by 25% in 2017. Subsequently, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/10/the-13-most-amazing-things-in-the-2016-exit-poll/">almost half</a> of exit poll respondents in the US election thought Obamacare “went too far”. Insurers too argue they are <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/276366-insurers-warn-losses-from-obamacare-are-unsustainable">losing money</a> on Obamacare. A 2016 McKinsey & Co <a href="http://healthcare.mckinsey.com/2014-individual-market-post-3r-financial-performance">report</a> indicates insurers lost money in 41 states on Obamacare exchanges in 2014. </p>
<p>Insurance companies too are withdrawing from Obamacare marketplaces and instead choosing to focus on employer sponsored plans. So, some states also have <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/25/us/some-health-plan-costs-to-increase-by-an-average-of-25-percent-us-says.html">fewer insurance options</a>. UnitedHealthcare is withdrawing from most Obamacare marketplaces and remaining in only a <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-19/unitedhealth-profit-beats-estimates-fueled-by-tech-unit-optum">handful</a> of states in 2017. <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/15/news/economy/aetna-obamacare/">Aetna</a> will stop offering insurance in 11 of the 15 states it serves.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51385-HealthInsuranceBaseline.pdf">Congressional Budget Office</a> indicates subsidies from the government to consumers will amount to US$43 billion in 2016. These subsidies increase as premiums increase, squeezing health care budgets further. This is clearly not sustainable given the existing budget deficit. </p>
<p>The Republican party has detailed replacement plans for Obamacare. <a href="https://abetterway.speaker.gov/_assets/pdf/ABetterWay-HealthCare-PolicyPaper.pdf">A Better Way</a> and the <a href="http://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/burr-hatch-upton-unveil-obamacare-replacement-plan">CARE Act</a> both maintain key features, including that insurers cannot refuse people with preexisting conditions (the preexisting condition rule).</p>
<p>However, they both propose increasing premiums for people who have not maintained continuous coverage. The idea is to encourage people to sign up while healthy, the first issue that an Obamacare replacement needs to address.</p>
<h2>1. Get healthy people into insurance</h2>
<p>Efforts to get healthy people into insurance, and to reward them for keeping up their policies, are intended to enable companies to insure sick people without going bankrupt. </p>
<p>Obamacare’s current “individual mandate”, which states that everyone must buy insurance or face a penalty, is meant to facilitate this.</p>
<p>However, too many healthy people pay the penalty rather than buy insurance. While the overall percentage of people without insurance <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/earlyrelease201609_01.pdf">decreased</a> between 2012 and the first quarter of 2016, this varied across different age ranges. As the graph shows, in percentage terms, more 25-34 year olds are uninsured than are 35-44, or 45-64 year olds. Thus, in percentage terms, older (generally sicker) people make up an increasing portion of enrolees, increasing risk and forcing companies to charge higher premiums to remain solvent.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146646/original/image-20161119-19345-tpebpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146646/original/image-20161119-19345-tpebpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146646/original/image-20161119-19345-tpebpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146646/original/image-20161119-19345-tpebpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146646/original/image-20161119-19345-tpebpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146646/original/image-20161119-19345-tpebpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146646/original/image-20161119-19345-tpebpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146646/original/image-20161119-19345-tpebpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Percentage of uninsured people by age group.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Center for Disease Control</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>President-elect Trump seems to want to keep the preexisting conditions component. However, this could be unviable given the current lack of young, healthy, enrolees. The government would need to enforce the individual mandate either through increased penalties for people not taking up a policy or to persuade people to sign up.</p>
<p>Australia and Republican proposals could give some guidance. Australia’s <a href="http://www.privatehealth.gov.au/healthinsurance/incentivessurcharges/lifetimehealthcover.htm">Lifetime Health Cover</a> program, as well as the previously mentioned alternatives, Better Way and CARE Act, allow insurance companies to charge higher premiums to people who have not maintained continuous coverage.</p>
<p>The Republican proposals also reduce the required level of care insurance companies must offer, thereby reducing premium costs and attracting more people to insurance. The CARE Act forces people who do not enrol into a default low cost insurance program, which provides coverage for only a limited range of conditions.</p>
<h2>2. Address fragmented marketplaces</h2>
<p>Insurance companies can sell insurance via employer based plans, on Obamacare marketplaces and/or directly to consumers. A total of <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51385-HealthInsuranceBaseline.pdf">155 million</a> people under 65 get their insurance from employment based plans; <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51385-HealthInsuranceBaseline.pdf">12 million</a> buy their insurance on the marketplaces; <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51385-HealthInsuranceBaseline.pdf">9 million</a> buy it outside the marketplaces (directly from insurers). </p>
<p>Compared with those on employer-sponsored plans, people who buy insurance on the exchange tend to qualify for government subsidies and tend to be sicker and poorer. The Blue Cross Blue Shield <a href="http://www.bcbs.com/healthofamerica/newly_enrolled_individuals_after_aca.pdf">reports</a> new enrolees after Obamacare tend to have higher rates of some diseases and use more medical services.</p>
<p>Insurance companies can mitigate having to insure excess numbers of sick people on Obamacare marketplaces by focusing on employer-linked plans. This reduces choice on the marketplace.</p>
<p>Some states have tried to address this problem through incentives and penalties. Alaska has a <a href="https://blog.cms.gov/2016/08/11/building-on-premium-stabilization-for-the-future/">reinsurance</a> type program to help insurers meet the costs of high cost patients. Nevada <a href="https://www.healthinsurance.org/nevada-state-health-insurance-exchange/">mandates</a> insurers participate in its exchange. Australia too has a <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/156678/57privatehealth.pdf">reinsurance arrangement</a> to help insurance companies burdened with bad risks. The Better Way proposal would have a US$25 billion high risk pool. Such incentive measures could help to increase exchange participation without risking insurance companies’ solvency. </p>
<p>Trump potentially has a similar policy. His policy platform <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/health-care/">refers to</a> establishing “high-risk pools to ensure access to coverage for individuals who have not maintained continuous coverage”. This might help to alleviate the stresses created by retaining the preexisting condition clause.</p>
<h2>3. Allow interstate purchases</h2>
<p>People can generally only buy insurance form their home state’s marketplace due to the McCarran-Ferguson Act (1945), which allows states to regulate health insurance plans within their borders.</p>
<p>Some markets have few insurance companies, and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/25/us/some-health-plan-costs-to-increase-by-an-average-of-25-percent-us-says.html">reportedly</a>, will only have one marketplace offering in 2017. This gives little choice for their residents.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/health-care/">Trump’s solution</a> is to allow “people to purchase insurance across state lines, in all 50 states”. This will not solve the issue of healthy people going without insurance and increasing the risk pool, but will increase choice. Increased competition also risks further eroding any profitability for insurance companies.</p>
<h2>4. Relax the 80/20 rule</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.healthcare.gov/health-care-law-protections/rate-review/">80/20 rule</a> says insurance companies must spend at least 80% of all premium revenue on medical care and actions to improve the quality of care; they must spend <a href="https://www.healthcare.gov/health-care-law-protections/rate-review/">at least 85%</a> when selling insurance to large groups.</p>
<p>The 80/20 rule can be problematic because there’s a debate about whether the government is entitled to regulate companies’ profitability.</p>
<p>The rule also limits competition in individual marketplaces. This is because a firm can participate in a marketplace only if it can keep its overheads low enough to spend 80% of revenue on health care. This is possible only if both (1) it has relatively low costs, and (2) it has enough customers to generate economics of scale. Small insurers lack economies of scale, so could not participate. </p>
<p>Insurers unsure about whether a marketplace will be profitable will be deterred because there is no guarantee they could retain enough premium revenue to remain solvent. </p>
<p>The government might not want to enable rampant profiteering. However, relaxing the 80/20 rule could encourage more insurers to enter the insurance marketplaces. </p>
<h2>Where to from here and will Trump’s position help?</h2>
<p>Trump’s Obamacare position is evolving and his policy platform is vague. He states that he intends to “repeal and replace” Obamacare yet the form of that replacement is unclear.</p>
<p>Trump indicated he supported the rule that insurance companies must accept people with preexisting conditions and to allow adult children to remain on their parents’ insurance policies. Trump also wants to increase choice by allowing people to buy insurance across state lines, which does not itself solve the problem of unhealthy people flocking to Obamacare marketplaces.</p>
<p>Retaining Obamacare is untenable unless Trump retains, and enforces, the individual mandate. However, his policies regarding the individual mandate are unclear. The obvious solutions are to increase penalties for noncompliance and imposing a loading for failing to maintain continuous coverage. A reinsurance plan, similar to that in Australia, or in Alaska, might help mitigate the impact of high-risk customers.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the choice comes down to enforcing the individual mandate more stridently, potentially allowing higher premiums for those who fail to maintain continuous coverage, or watching Obamacare fail.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69041/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Humphery-Jenner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Alternatives to Obamacare look to address rising premiums and less consumer choice. What options does the US have and how could they work?Mark Humphery-Jenner, Associate Professor of Finance, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/687382016-11-16T19:10:00Z2016-11-16T19:10:00ZThe Democrats must change – here’s how they can do it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145713/original/image-20161114-9073-1jema81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine at the Democratic National Convention 2016.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Justin Lane</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the Democratic Party, the shock of the 2016 election loss, having failed to make headway in the Congress, and losing their seat in the White House represents a moment of necessary soul searching. </p>
<p>Republicans will soon dominate every branch of government, including a clear majority of state governorships. It will be Trump, rather than Obama or Clinton, who fills the vacancy on the Supreme Court. The Democrats are at a low point, hurting from an election result that they did not foresee, but one that they could have prevented. </p>
<p>This loss stems from fundamental problems in the way the party operates. Change is needed. </p>
<p>If it comes, it should take place in at least three key areas: re-establishing the Democratic voter-base, democratising the primary process, and fundamentally reforming the party machinery of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) so that it supports, rather than undermines, its own democratic tradition.</p>
<h2>Who are the “real” Democrat voters?</h2>
<p>With the advantage of hindsight, the free flowing accusation against many Democrat supporters is that they live <a href="http://www.vulture.com/2016/11/michael-moore-has-a-plan-for-the-days-ahead.html">“in a bubble”</a>. The truth is that everyone does: we are used to our immediate environment, generally unused to radically different ones.</p>
<p>However, the <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/do-you-live-in-a-bubble-a-quiz-2/">“bubble test”</a> as author Charles Murray would call it, remains useful in understanding the Democratic Party’s 2016 loss. The party’s new base are “progressive-liberals” (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-identity-politics-couldnt-clinch-a-clinton-win/2016/11/11/ed3bf966-a773-11e6-8fc0-7be8f848c492_story.html?utm_term=.16d954b33055">who were targeted by Clinton’s identity focused campaign</a>), based mainly in the north-east and west of the country. But the party also assumed that the blue collar and “rust belt” voters would remain faithful (<a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/article/442091/donald-trump-michigan-2016-blue-collar-reagan-democrats">unable to remember the exodus of “Reagan Democrats” in the 1980s</a>). </p>
<p>In these voters’ minds, however, the Democratic Party abandoned them long ago. Their votes were an expression of finally being released from a trap: the Democratic platform largely favoured free trade (<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-does-obama-want-the-trans-pacific-partnership-so-badly">Obama championed it</a>), and when Trump suggested that he would rip up free trade agreements and stand up to China (whatever that may mean), he gave them license to leave.</p>
<p>Their votes were not for the Republican Party per se, nor even for the “Trump Party”. They were for an economic platform they had not seen in decades: Trump offered them the prospect of protectionism in the form of standing up to China and Mexico (however that might occur), and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/12/tpp-trade-deal-congress-obama">abandoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership</a>. </p>
<p>The Democrats must recognise how important these issues are to many of its former “base”, and decide how closely it aligns with free market economic principles. There is furious agreement amongst “elites” that free trade works, but <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/25/what-americans-really-think-about-free-trade/">this is not so amongst the working class.</a></p>
<p>This voter base, once assumed to be Democratic-leaning thanks to the former power of the union movement, is now politically homeless. The Democratic Party needs to decide whether they want these voters, and either adjust their economic platform or better explain the merits of free trade — but they can no longer assume this once critical vote.</p>
<h2>The importance of primaries, and reforming the DNC</h2>
<p>The systemic problems of the election reflect wider issues in the primary process. The loss of the blue collar vote in 2016 stems from them - it is no coincidence that Sanders’ popularity <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/politico-breaking-news-sanders-wins-michigan-220460">came from the very areas that became so critical to Trump’s win</a>. The Democratic Party fundamentally missed this problem early on, and contributed to its own demise.</p>
<p>In the end, Clinton won the nomination, but the role of the very undemocratic super-delegates, as well as the sense that the primary elections were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/13/guardian-reader-callout-voter-dissatisfaction-us-election-2016">“rigged”</a> (an idea Trump would later seize on) to favour Clinton, <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-sanders-superdelegates-democrats-219286">disenfranchised or disheartened non-Clinton supporters</a>, including <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/15/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-poll.html?_r=0">many voters that needed to be mobilised in the general election</a>.</p>
<p>These issues point to easy fixes for the party: the easiest is to remove super-delegates from the nominating process, which hurt the party brand in the general election. </p>
<p>Also,<a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/2016-barack-obama-hillary-clinton-democratic-establishment-campaign-primary-joe-biden-elizabeth-warren-214023">rather than discourage viable candidates from entering the process</a>, the DNC should ensure that as many enter as possible, and use the primaries as a means to vet, and establish the best candidate as fairly as possible.</p>
<p>But another critical change should come in the way the DNC is administered. It should be, but is not currently, an independent and fair umpire of its own elections. One of the many damaging revelations in the Clinton email scandal was to confirm what many already suspected: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/24/here-are-the-latest-most-damaging-things-in-the-dncs-leaked-emails/">the DNC was actively colluding with the Clinton camp</a>, against challengers like Sanders.</p>
<p>At the conclusion of the primary process, any successful nominee should appear to have won fairly. If a party is seen as favouring nepotism and dynasty over democracy, it de-legitimises its candidate, and hurts its chances at elections. The key to political success will come from open, free primaries: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/us/politics/for-millennial-voters-a-tide-of-cynicism-toward-politics.html">the building cynicism</a> in the electorate can no longer abide the notion that the fix is in.</p>
<h2>The slim possibility of change</h2>
<p>Such fundamental changes are technically easy (the party writes its own rules after all), but politically difficult to bring about.</p>
<p>Entrenched interests may need to step down or minimise their roles, and reforming the primary process and party rules can yield outsider nominees that may appear to be riskier contenders in a general election. But, such is the nature of democracy. Attempting to override the will of the voters in the primaries, as 2016 has shown, can cost a party dearly in the wider electorate.</p>
<p>The Democratic Party currently feels as if the sky is falling, but it will endure. Its challenge now is to pick itself up, remake itself in the image of its own name, and become a truly democratic party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68738/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Rennie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Here are three key areas the Democratic Party must reform if they’re to fix fundamental problems revealed by the shock election result.George Rennie, PhD Candidate, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.