tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/potato-15023/articlesPotato – The Conversation2023-01-30T00:53:29Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1986672023-01-30T00:53:29Z2023-01-30T00:53:29ZWhat’s driving the potato chip shortage and when will it pass?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506751/original/file-20230127-24-behu61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C23%2C3888%2C2560&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Potatoes are among Australia’s <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/potatoes-infographic.pdf">favourite</a> vegetables. However, we are facing a shortage of processed potatoes, especially of frozen chips. Coles introduced a two-item <a href="https://www.coles.com.au/help/product-limits">limit</a> for shoppers seeking frozen potato products. Fish and chip businesses are under pressure and some are <a href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/food/fish-and-chip-shop-owners-anger-at-mcdonalds-launching-potato-scallops-amid-shortage/news-story/78812fa4d53410e3091e894cda9bc986">outraged</a> McDonald’s is launching a new potato product in the middle of a crisis.</p>
<p>As with so many staples and fresh produce items in the past two years – lettuce, milk and eggs to name a few – the problem is a temporary imbalance between supply and demand.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-pandemics-wars-and-the-market-whats-driving-the-price-of-milk-191064">Floods, pandemics, wars and the market: what's driving the price of milk</a>
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<h2>Soaring demand</h2>
<p>Let’s start with demand, which is <a href="https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/frozen-potato-products-market">soaring</a>. </p>
<p>Countries like <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-wants-more-people-to-eat-potatoes-how-changing-national-diets-could-help-fix-our-global-food-crisis-podcast-196159">China</a> are pushing potato consumption as part of their food security policy, and rising urbanisation worldwide is <a href="https://www.potatonewstoday.com/2023/01/11/report-quick-service-restaurants-drive-global-frozen-potato-market-industry-booming-in-the-asia-pacific/">driving up</a> consumption of ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook foods.</p>
<p>Fast-food chains are cashing in on the opportunity. McDonald’s is set to <a href="https://qsrmedia.com.au/franchising/news/mcdonalds-eyes-100-more-restaurants-over-next-three-years-part-600m-investment-plan">continue</a> its <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/maccas-will-open-another-11-restaurants-this-year/news-story/29eba1f5ca9e7f94bf57cc93a40a13cf#:%7E:text=McDonald's%20will%20open%20another%2011,by%20the%20end%20of%20December">expansion</a> in Australia. In 2020, McDonald’s Australia purchased over <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/mcdonalds-australia-has-revealed-its-mammoth-2020-shopping-list/YEV2IUV6RIH5SK2AKRPFPLQMCY/">133,000</a> tons of potatoes. With the launch of its potato <a href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/food/eat/mcdonalds-launches-new-potato-menuitem-aussies-cant-agree-on/news-story/8869e8002dd01ca1605382299a4c611b">scallops</a> with chicken salt product, demand for processed potatoes should only increase. </p>
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<h2>Supply won’t keep up</h2>
<p>On the supply side, potato growers worldwide had to take action against higher cultivation costs.</p>
<p>European countries exporting frozen potatoes to Australia are facing much higher <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-europe-faces-climbing-energy-bills-2022-09-02/">energy</a> bills. Many growers <a href="https://www.mintecglobal.com/top-stories/2023/24-my-eu-potato-contracts-up-20-30-y-o-y-amid-higher-production-costs">sold</a> supplies early in the season to save on storage, which demands a lot of energy to control for temperature and humidity. </p>
<p>That means <a href="https://ausveg.com.au/app/uploads/2021/12/Potatoes-Australia-PotatoLink-Summer-2021_2022.pdf">fewer</a> potatoes are available to export as we move into the year.</p>
<p>In New Zealand, the main exporter to Australia, vast amounts of rainfall in the past month are set to momentarily <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/cropping/130908464/more-frequent-extreme-wet-weather-likely-to-mean-potato-shortage-higher-prices">reduce yields</a>, as potatoes need dry soil and sunlight before harvest.</p>
<p>Australian potato farmers are also struggling with the weather. Central regions to the production of processed potatoes in South Australia, Tasmania, and Victoria were hit by <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/56cbdd3e20c647ad15b4d92f/t/5f711efb080c5d3cdcb609c3/1601249025851/Australian+Potato+Industry+2019.pdf">extreme weather events</a> in the past few months. Existing crops were lost to <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/whats-causing-australias-frozen-chip-shortage-and-how-long-will-it-last/ljhcvjctq">floods</a>, and planting new crops was significantly delayed.</p>
<p>The pain Australians are feeling now is not new to our neighbours in New Zealand, who had their own “chipocalypse” just a few years ago.</p>
<p>In 2017, up to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/16/chipocalypse-potato-shortage-in-new-zealand-sparks-crisp-crisis">30%</a> of New Zealand’s potato production in some areas was ruined by heavy rain.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506953/original/file-20230129-15-xxwvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A flooded town is seen form the sky via an aerial shot taken by a drone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506953/original/file-20230129-15-xxwvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506953/original/file-20230129-15-xxwvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506953/original/file-20230129-15-xxwvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506953/original/file-20230129-15-xxwvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506953/original/file-20230129-15-xxwvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506953/original/file-20230129-15-xxwvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506953/original/file-20230129-15-xxwvw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Widespread flooding is also contributing to shortages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Recovery is on the way, but…</h2>
<p>Potato farmers will recover.</p>
<p>What we see now is partly a reflection of the inclement weather from two or three months ago. With La Niña predicted to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/26/la-nina-weather-pattern-australia-to-end-in-early-2023-bom-bureau-predicts">end</a>, fewer floods are expected for 2023.</p>
<p>Later this year could well see healthy yields, bringing relief to potato farmers. Give them a full <a href="https://greenharvest.com.au/Plants/Information/PotatoGrowing.html">cycle</a> and in about four months current shortages may be over, especially if prices continue to <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/data/weekly-commodity-price-update/australian-horticulture-prices">soar</a>.</p>
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<p>But this will not be the last shortage we will see, thanks to some relatively new factors in the farming landscape.</p>
<p>First, small farmers are quitting. </p>
<p>The 2020 European Union farm <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/agriculture/census-2020#:%7E:text=The%20EU's%20Agricultural%20Census%202020%20has%20a%20new%20structure%2C%20consisting,a%20representative%20sample%20of%20farms">census</a> show consolidation is not slowing, with about <a href="https://www.farmersjournal.ie/800-eu-farmers-quit-the-sector-every-day-between-2010-and-2020-740899">800 farmers</a> quitting the sector every day.</p>
<p>In 2021-22 the Australian Bureau of Statistics registered <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/agriculture/agricultural-commodities-australia/latest-release">87,800</a> agricultural businesses, compared to about <a href="https://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/20042E8A21DCF545CA25786C0015898B/$File/71210_2009-10.pdf">134,000</a> in 2009-10 – roughly a 35% reduction. </p>
<p>That does not mean less food, but more concentration and therefore more <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/sites/default/files/sitecollectiondocuments/ag-food/publications/food-stats/daff-food-stats-2010-11.pdf">risk</a>. An extreme event hitting a group of small farmers is normally offset by their peers in the next town. When a very large farm is hit by the same event, often there is no immediate alternative.</p>
<p>Then there’s climate change. <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-nina-3-years-in-a-row-a-climate-scientist-on-what-flood-weary-australians-can-expect-this-summer-190542">Weather patterns</a> are <a href="https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php">changing</a> and will <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-climate#:%7E:text=Rising%20global%20average%20temperature%20is,with%20human%2Dinduced%20climate%20change.">continue</a> to do so in the foreseeable future. Australia could go from a rare three year La Niña straight into a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/04/australia-could-swing-from-three-years-of-la-nina-to-hot-and-dry-el-nino-in-2023">hot and dry El Niño</a>. </p>
<p>This much volatility demands new skills and advanced, coordinated planning to save for a raining day.</p>
<h2>So, what can farmers and governments do to prepare?</h2>
<p>Of course, there have been bumper harvests as well — just look at Western Australia’s <a href="https://www.graincentral.com/news/third-bumper-harvest-to-challenge-supply-chain-anz/">grain</a> crops this summer. But some of the value of these exceptional yields is lost to transportation and storage bottlenecks.</p>
<p>With proper conditions, many grains, fruits and vegetables can be <a href="https://www.potatogrower.com/2019/03/top-5-factors-to-successful#:%7E:text=In%20general%2C%20the%20optimum%20long,weight%20loss%20and%20sprout%20control">stockpiled</a> for long periods of time. Stored correctly, potatoes can go for <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0023643802001743">months</a> without spoiling. Processed and frozen chips will last even longer inside industrial freezers. </p>
<p>If storage costs can be brought down – which has a lot to do with interest rates and electricity bills – farmers can keep surplus coming from bumper harvests instead of selling them immediately at discounted prices. Quicker deals with friendly international partners can also provide faster imports in dire times.</p>
<p>It’s up to Australia to create the right conditions to better cope with more volatility, so empty shelves can become a thing of the past.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/food-shortages-five-ways-to-fix-unfair-supply-chains-197974">Food shortages: five ways to fix 'unfair' supply chains</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Flavio Macau is affiliated with the Australasian Supply Chain Institute (ASCI).</span></em></p>As with so many staples and foods in the past two years – lettuce, milk and eggs to name a few – the problem is a temporary imbalance between supply and demand. Here’s what’s happening with potatoes.Flavio Macau, Associate Dean - School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/974832018-05-30T13:35:14Z2018-05-30T13:35:14ZHow the humble potato fuelled the rise of liberal capitalism – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220991/original/file-20180530-120499-1mm1yy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/home">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Britain’s love for the potato is bound up with notions of the utilitarian value of a good diet and how a healthy citizenry is the engine room of a strong economy. And it all dates back to the 18th century. </p>
<p>This episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/podcasts/in-depth-out-loud">In Depth Out Loud</a>, a podcast narrating an in depth article from The Conversation, looks at the history of the Enlightenment thinkers who promoted the tuber as a way to build a healthy and productive society. It’s read by Laura Hood. </p>
<iframe src="https://player.acast.com/5e29c8205aa745a456af58c8/episodes/5e29c8365aa745a456af58cc?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="110px" allow="autoplay"></iframe>
<p>You can read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-humble-potato-fuelled-the-rise-of-liberal-capitalism-80767">text version of the article here</a>. </p>
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<p><em>The music in this podcast is <a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/Music_for_Podcasts_4/Lee_Rosevere_-_Music_for_Podcasts_4_-_06_Night_Caves">Night Caves</a>, by Lee Rosevere from the Free Music Archive. A big thanks to City University London’s Department of Journalism for letting us use their studios to record.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97483/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Earle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An audio version of an in depth article about the 18th century Enlightenment thinkers who promoted the potato as a way to build a healthy and productive society.Rebecca Earle, Professor of History, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/596252016-06-06T14:30:24Z2016-06-06T14:30:24ZPotatoes deserve to be a part of the super-food family<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124569/original/image-20160531-13804-1yumkwq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Potatoes have been the carbohydrate family’s favourite child since the 16th century when they were a staple food on long ship voyages to discover <a href="http://www.potatogoodness.com/all-about-potatoes/potato-fun-facts-history/">new land</a>.</p>
<p>Today in excess of 300 million metric tons of <a href="http://cipotato.org/potato/facts/">potatoes</a> are consumed by more than a billion people across the globe. It is a staple in developing countries along with rice, wheat, maize and sorghum and is among the 40% of root vegetables eaten in sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<p>Apart from being a staple food, potatoes have found their way to fine dining menus. Their popularity is ascribed to the simple way they are cultivated as well as their <a href="http://advances.nutrition.org/content/4/3/393S.full.pdf+html">affordability and diversity</a>. </p>
<p>But <a href="http://www.nhs.uk/Livewell/loseweight/Pages/top-10-most-popular-diets-review.aspx">trending low-carb diets</a> in recent years along with the increasingly high potato prices <a href="http://www.potatoes.co.za/industry-information/market-information.aspx">due to droughts</a> have resulted in the spud being <a href="http://www.potatoes.co.za/industry-information/rehgional-information.aspx">shunned at many tables</a>.</p>
<p>Traditionally the South African Food Based Dietary Guidelines recommended that carbohydrates as the main fuel source for the body make up between <a href="http://www.adsa.org.za/Portals/14/Documents/FoodBasedDietaryGuidelinesforSouthAfrica.pdf">45% and 65%</a> of total energy intake. Recent arguments in the nutrition arena are that less is better. As a result carbohydrate-rich foods – including the carb-loaded potato – have seen increasing consumer dissonance. </p>
<p>But despite this, potatoes are a really important part of the diet. And they can be a better carbohydrate than many others. </p>
<p>Our <a href="http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=66053">study</a> quantified the nutritional value of different potatoes to see whether there are significant differences in the nutritional value of different potato types.</p>
<p>We found that potatoes are more nutrient-dense than many other staple foods in South Africa. These include maize meal, rice, bread and pasta. Certain potato varieties compare well to popular and healthy foods such as tomatoes or beans.</p>
<h2>There’s more to the potato</h2>
<p>There are <a href="http://www.potatocertification.co.za/">more than 80 types of potatoes</a> grown in South Africa. Many of these are sold to South Africans but <a href="http://www.potatoes.co.za/media-events/chips.aspx">three out of four</a> consumers are ignorant to the alternating content of their grocery basket. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.potatoes.co.za/SiteResources/documents/Top%20cultivars%20on%20FPMs,%20Jan%202016.JPG">Mondial and Sifra</a> dominate the market. Both have a waxy-floury texture. Mondial potatoes are oval shaped and Sifra potatoes are rounder with a more buttery flesh. <a href="http://www.potatoes.co.za/SiteResources/documents/Top%20cultivars%20on%20FPMs,%20Jan%202016.JPG">Lanorma</a> potatoes are the new kids on the block and have been growing in popularity. </p>
<p>These, along with a type called BP1, are South African favourites. In Europe, the favoured potato is the Maris Peer while Americans prefer the Russet Burbank potato.</p>
<p>As part of our study, we looked at the different potato types in South Africa. We were investigating natural biodiversity and its effect on human diets. <a href="http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:XEzgyPKjLQ0J:www.fao.org/3/a-i1983e.pdf+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&client=firefox-b-ab">Dietary diversity</a> has an array of positive effects on human health. It is proposed that it leads to an increase in nutrient adequacy.</p>
<p>Our study found that there are significant differences in the nutritional value of different potato types. We found that there were <a href="http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=66053">statistical differences</a> in the nutrient content of various potato types which were commonly consumed in South Africa.</p>
<p>These differences explain why some potatoes won’t go soft, while others spontaneously disintegrate into a heap of mash after boiling.</p>
<p>But we also compared the nutrient count of potatoes to other vegetables.</p>
<h2>A new super-food</h2>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125382/original/image-20160606-13067-1we55q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125382/original/image-20160606-13067-1we55q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125382/original/image-20160606-13067-1we55q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125382/original/image-20160606-13067-1we55q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125382/original/image-20160606-13067-1we55q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125382/original/image-20160606-13067-1we55q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125382/original/image-20160606-13067-1we55q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Potatoes compare favourably to many other vegetables, including tomatoes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>We found that when it boils down to health, many potatoes trump other so-called super foods.</p>
<p>For example, bananas are a well-known potassium powerhouse. They help regulate blood pressure. South Africa’s most <a href="http://www.sun.ac.za/english/faculty/agri/plant-pathology/ac4tr4/foc-tr4-in-africa/banana-production-in-africa">popular commercial banana</a> – <a href="http://www.producebusinessuk.com/supply/stories/2016/03/08/banana-market-faces-great-change-as-monoculture-threatens-extinction-of-west-s-most-popular-variety">a Cavendish</a> – contains 432mg potassium. </p>
<p>But a medium <a href="http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=66053">Darius</a> potato, we found, contained 698mg potassium. And the <a href="http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=66053">Fianna</a> potato could provide more than 60% of the daily dietary requirement for manganese which is essential for the formation and upkeep of strong and healthy bones. This is also more manganese than is found in the same portion of lima beans.</p>
<p>Potatoes have at least 4mg more vitamin C than tomatoes, which are famed for their high levels of vitamin C.</p>
<p>There’s more to potatoes than just their vitamin and mineral content. A portion of potatoes provides 24g of carbohydrates, 2,5g protein and nearly no fat. This is similar to a portion of rice containing 21g carbohydrates and 2g protein. But potatoes have an added benefit: they contain 2.6g fibre while rice only contributes 0.7g of fibre. </p>
<p>Potatoes are also a lower caloric option than our main staple food, maize meal. A portion of cooked maize meal porridge would provide 40g carbohydrates and 727kJ – almost double that of potatoes.</p>
<p>Potatoes are a nutrient dense crop that can form part of a diverse diet. The tubers have a rich history and will be a favourite starch for many years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59625/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carmen van Niekerk receives funding from Potatoes South Africa. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Prof Hettie Schönfeldt consults to Potatoes South Africa as a researcher affiliated with the University of Pretoria.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicolette Hall consults to Potatoes South Africa as a researcher affiliated with the University of Pretoria. </span></em></p>Potatoes are more nutrient-dense than many other staple foods in South Africa including maize meal, rice, bread and pasta.Carmen Muller, Researcher and PhD student in Human Nutrition, University of PretoriaHettie Carina Schönfeldt, Associate Professor of Human Nutrition at the Institute of Food, Nutrition and Wellbeing, University of PretoriaNicolette Hall, Researcher in Human Nutrition, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/546982016-03-11T11:12:33Z2016-03-11T11:12:33ZCan we ‘vaccinate’ plants to boost their immunity?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114727/original/image-20160310-26261-7ib0hc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=221%2C786%2C2767%2C1476&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Our modern crops need some help in the immunity department.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ndrwfgg/173181035">Andy / Andrew Fogg</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When you pick up the perfect apple in the supermarket it’s easy to forget that plants get sick just like we do. A more realistic view might come from a walk outside during summer: try to find a leaf without a speck, spot or blemish. Tough, huh? Those are the signs of a microscopic battle waged every day in and on plants.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114742/original/image-20160310-26279-stkxxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114742/original/image-20160310-26279-stkxxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114742/original/image-20160310-26279-stkxxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114742/original/image-20160310-26279-stkxxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114742/original/image-20160310-26279-stkxxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114742/original/image-20160310-26279-stkxxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114742/original/image-20160310-26279-stkxxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114742/original/image-20160310-26279-stkxxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plants get sick too.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lumbar_plant_acerleaf_sick.jpg">Carsten Niehaus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Just like us, plants are covered in microbes. And just like us, plants have evolved an immune system to protect against the dangerous ones. But our current agricultural system works against plants’ natural immune defenses, by limiting the tools plants have to fight back and restricting evolution of new tools. </p>
<p>Pesticides provide us with most of the spotless produce in the grocery store. Even so, many apples still don’t make it to market. About a <a href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/ITS_4.pdf">third end up</a> as juice or applesauce, because they don’t meet the beauty standards of the American consumer. Forget about blemishes – <a href="http://panamadisease.org/en/theproblem">Panama Disease</a> threatens nearly all of the world’s banana production, and the only effective treatment is toxic to the soil.</p>
<p>Scientists studying plant immunity are figuring out how to fight plant diseases without chemical pesticides. Some researchers plan to <a href="https://theconversation.com/primed-for-battle-helping-plants-fight-off-pathogens-by-enhancing-their-immune-systems-43689">give our crops vaccines</a>, just like the shots we administer to ourselves to fend off the flu or smallpox. My lab seeks to identify ways plants defend themselves in the wild. With that information, we can use modern breeding techniques and genetic engineering to strengthen the immunity of our crops and gardens.</p>
<h2>Plants have naturally evolving “resistance genes”</h2>
<p>Over the last 25 years, advances in genetics and molecular biology have revealed new secrets of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plant_disease_resistance">plant immunity</a>. Computers, searching mountains of plant genetic data, have identified thousands of “<a href="http://prgdb.crg.eu/wiki/Main_Page">resistance genes</a>” that <a href="http://doi.org/10.1038/nature05286">help plants fend off infection</a>.</p>
<p>These genes are the blueprints for resistance proteins that look surprisingly like the antibodies in the human immune system. Both are modular in nature and recognize specific invading pathogens. Like a lock and key, only the proper resistance protein “lock” will recognize its corresponding pathogen “key.”</p>
<p>Resistance proteins also contain a switch to alert the plant that a potential threat has been found. Without the proper lock and key combination, the plant never knows the pathogen is there. If the resistance protein identifies a pathogen, other immune functions and defenses turn on to fight the intruder and attempt to keep the plant from getting “sick.” </p>
<p>Animals’ immunity has a distinct advantage over plants’, though. New <a href="http://www.imgt.org/IMGTeducation/Tutorials/ImmuneSystem/UK/the_immune_system.pdf">antibodies are made fresh by human immune cells</a> to recognize new pathogens we might encounter. Plants are stuck with what they’ve got. All the resistance genes they have were passed down from their parents.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114764/original/image-20160311-26274-5p03tr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114764/original/image-20160311-26274-5p03tr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114764/original/image-20160311-26274-5p03tr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114764/original/image-20160311-26274-5p03tr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114764/original/image-20160311-26274-5p03tr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114764/original/image-20160311-26274-5p03tr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114764/original/image-20160311-26274-5p03tr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114764/original/image-20160311-26274-5p03tr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Modern farms support much less diversity – and contain less immunity – than a natural wildflower field.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/barbarawalsh/5944251580">Barbara Walsh</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Diversity is a key part of plant immune systems</h2>
<p>Bacteria and fungi with short life cycles can evolve more quickly than plants. These pathogens can complete a life cycle in a week and produce millions of offspring. If even one changes or drops the molecular “keys” recognized by a resistance protein, it could start a new family of pathogens capable of infecting the plant.</p>
<p>Due to the rigidity of inherited resistance, only genetic variety among a plant species can provide a variety of resistances to pathogens. The more diverse the population of plants, the more diverse the resistance genes in the population. </p>
<p>Resistance genes’ modular nature allows computers to find them, and is also critical for their evolution. This characteristic allows for quick rearrangements and new combinations. The mixing of genes during plant sex can lead to new chimeric resistance genes made of bits and pieces of the parents’ genes. Even as the pathogens change to evade the plant, resistance genes can evolve over the generations to recognize and fight them. </p>
<p>Human beings’ <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y5609e/y5609e02.htm">reliance on monoculture</a> for our food supply <a href="http://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2013.06.007">works against</a> the plants’ natural defenses. Without a variety of resistance gene modules to work with, the plant community struggles to hit on new winning combinations. Not only are we halting the natural evolution of resistance genes, but if every plant in the field is identical, then disease that infects one can infect them all.</p>
<p>The plant pathogens are evolving, but we continue to grow the same plants, with the same resistance genes. To compensate, we rely <a href="http://quickstats.nass.usda.gov">more and more on pesticides</a> to keep our crop plants healthy. Without new resistance genes our <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/04/the-worlds-most-popular-banana-could-go-extinct/">current crops of bananas</a> and <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/planetary-disasters-it-could-happen-one-night-1.12174">potatoes may fail</a>. </p>
<h2>Compensating for the diversity our crops lack</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.fralin.vt.edu/affiliated-faculty/john-mcdowell">Our lab</a> and collaborators seek to find resistance genes in wild relatives of the soybean to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-08-15-0916-RE">breed into commercial varieties</a>. We play the role of natural selection by choosing diverse resistance that protects against economically important diseases.</p>
<p>Breeding can be slow and is especially difficult if the plants are only distantly related. So other labs and companies are using genome editing technologies to introduce new resistance genes quickly.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114762/original/image-20160310-26271-1o9a4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114762/original/image-20160310-26271-1o9a4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114762/original/image-20160310-26271-1o9a4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114762/original/image-20160310-26271-1o9a4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114762/original/image-20160310-26271-1o9a4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114762/original/image-20160310-26271-1o9a4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114762/original/image-20160310-26271-1o9a4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114762/original/image-20160310-26271-1o9a4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A potato suffering from late blight, the disease responsible for the Irish potato famine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/5050443007">U.S. Department of Agriculture</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Take the example of potatoes and late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine in the 19th century. Today, farmers spray fungicide as many as <a href="http://www.ipm.ucdavis.edu/PMG/r607101211.html">15 times a year</a> to combat the disease on potatoes. A <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-313X.2003.01934.x">decade of research</a> identified and isolated a resistance gene in wild potato to fight late blight. Chemical company BASF genetically modified (GM) cultivated potato varieties in an attempt to market a GM, disease-resistant product. The <a href="http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/2013/02/basf-gm-potato-amflora">project was abandoned</a> in 2013 due to lack of interest and high regulatory barriers.</p>
<p>US regulators have recently approved new <a href="http://www.simplotplantsciences.com">“Innate” potato</a>, a GM variety with resistance genes from wild potato relatives. These potatoes recognize, and fight back against late blight – without the help of fungicide. </p>
<p>The use of genetic modification in food is still controversial. Many think GM plants need more testing; others say they are not natural. <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/94da41eac8a64ff8a14b072bcd14fe0a/fda-gives-ok-companys-genetically-engineered-potato">McDonald’s will not use the Innate potato</a> for its French fries. Everyone can buy and eat as they choose. But sometimes I want to bite into that perfect red apple or enjoy a bag of French fries. For me, at least, the potato plant fighting for itself with the help of an added gene is more appealing than weekly applications of <a href="http://pmep.cce.cornell.edu/profiles/extoxnet/carbaryl-dicrotophos/chlorothalonil-ext.html">fungus-killing chemical chlorothalonil</a>. </p>
<p>Some scientists are going a step further. Just this year researchers showed how they <a href="http://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad3436">customized a resistance gene</a>. In this case, rather than borrowing from nature, the “locks” have been engineered in the lab to recognize a specific pathogen “key.” Putting the new resistance gene in plants confers synthetic immunity.</p>
<p>This research is still only at the in-the-lab stage, but it opens the hopeful possibility that even if diseases evolve to evade all natural plant resistance, we can engineer tools to stop them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Herlihy is a graduate student at Virginia Tech, and receives funding from Virginia Tech and North Carolina State University. </span></em></p>Modern agriculture is synonymous with monoculture. That lack of diversity is bad news for plants’ natural immune defenses. Researchers are figuring out how to help plants fend off microbes – without pesticides.John Herlihy, Ph.D. Student in Plant Pathology, Physiology and Weed Science, Virginia TechLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/378142015-02-20T06:13:43Z2015-02-20T06:13:43ZAre we witnessing the long, slow death of the potato?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72534/original/image-20150219-28209-ovexg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Spud-u-don't-like?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-100942021/stock-photo-potatoes-on-a-wooden-table.html?src=csl_recent_image-2&ws=1">Mihai Petre</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Dig into the British potato statistics and you might find cause for concern. The volume of fresh and processed potatoes Britons are buying <a href="http://www.potato.org.uk/knowledge-hub/newsletters/retail-reports?keys=">fell for the fourth year</a> in a row last year to 2.29m tonnes, compared to nearly 2.5m in 2010. The financial sales figures have held up better, but they too fell last year, down 4% to £4bn across the UK, while in Scotland <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/changing-tastes-blamed-for-collapse-in-sales-of-scots-tatties.117126575">they fell</a> nearly 40% to £170m. How worried should potato farmers be?</p>
<p>The long-term picture can be seen in the chart below. It shows that potato production has been in gentle decline since the 1960s as our tastes have gradually changed. From the days when British dinners were all about meat and two veg, one of which would almost always be potatoes, now we’re likely to be choosing pasta or rice instead, if not more recent arrivals such as quinoa or polenta. </p>
<p>The reason why the numbers move around so much each year is that weather conditions make a big difference. Dry conditions are required at planting time. Rainfall is important to bulk up the potatoes, but warm and humid weather also leads to problems with the disease known as <a href="http://archive.bio.ed.ac.uk/jdeacon/microbes/blight.htm">late blight</a>. Dry warm weather in the summer may lead to increases in aphids. Wet weather can severely hamper lifting during harvest, and early frosts can also cause damage. </p>
<p><strong>Volume of harvested production in the UK 1885-2013</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72490/original/image-20150219-28219-22ult0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72490/original/image-20150219-28219-22ult0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72490/original/image-20150219-28219-22ult0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72490/original/image-20150219-28219-22ult0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72490/original/image-20150219-28219-22ult0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72490/original/image-20150219-28219-22ult0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72490/original/image-20150219-28219-22ult0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72490/original/image-20150219-28219-22ult0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Note: data before 1922 correspond to Great Britain only.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Defra</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If this is the overall picture, there are some other interesting trends worth pointing to. First of all, the size of the planted area has been falling too – as you would expect. Apart from the massive increase in potato area during World War II as imports hit the buffers, the trend has been in one direction. In 1975 the UK’s planted potato area returned to the same level as it had been in 1897, and has kept falling ever since.</p>
<p><strong>Total area planted with potatoes in the UK 1866-2013</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72487/original/image-20150219-28197-1956vuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72487/original/image-20150219-28197-1956vuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72487/original/image-20150219-28197-1956vuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72487/original/image-20150219-28197-1956vuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72487/original/image-20150219-28197-1956vuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72487/original/image-20150219-28197-1956vuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72487/original/image-20150219-28197-1956vuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72487/original/image-20150219-28197-1956vuk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Defra</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But we need far less planted area to grow the same amounts of potatoes these days. The potato yield has gradually improved largely thanks to irrigation, improvements in soil management, and more effective machinery for seedbed preparation. The average production for the period 1960-2013 was in fact about 61% higher than the average for the period 1885-1938. </p>
<h2>The rise of bigger farms</h2>
<p>There has also been a big fall in the number of potato growers – down from 76,830 in 1960 to 2,190 in 2013. The industry has become more consolidated due to higher capital investment, with far fewer growers with small holdings in even just the past 20 years. </p>
<p>Potato production is now in the hands of fewer but more specialised growers who have to meet ever-increasing demands for high-quality product, especially for blemish-free, pre-pack potatoes for retail. At the same time there is increasing pressure for potatoes to be grown using integrated crop management principles under protocols and quality assurance schemes. These modern commercial and regulatory demands have made potato farming less attractive to smaller players. </p>
<p><strong>Number of potato growers by size band in hectares (ha)</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72495/original/image-20150219-28191-4ylzxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72495/original/image-20150219-28191-4ylzxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72495/original/image-20150219-28191-4ylzxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72495/original/image-20150219-28191-4ylzxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72495/original/image-20150219-28191-4ylzxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72495/original/image-20150219-28191-4ylzxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72495/original/image-20150219-28191-4ylzxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72495/original/image-20150219-28191-4ylzxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AHDB/Potato Council Planting Returns</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Changes in consumer demand</h2>
<p>The other important point is that you have to distinguish fresh and processed potatoes. The chart below shows the extent of the big decline in per-capita consumption of fresh potatoes. </p>
<p><strong>Fresh potato consumption, 1940-2013</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72498/original/image-20150219-28204-1rchdwe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72498/original/image-20150219-28204-1rchdwe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72498/original/image-20150219-28204-1rchdwe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72498/original/image-20150219-28204-1rchdwe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72498/original/image-20150219-28204-1rchdwe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72498/original/image-20150219-28204-1rchdwe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72498/original/image-20150219-28204-1rchdwe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72498/original/image-20150219-28204-1rchdwe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Defra/Family Food</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But this has been partially offset by processed potato products, which also have steadily grown in importance as a proportion of all potato sales. This includes crisps, frozen chips and a range of foods/snacks containing potato flake. </p>
<p><strong>Share of processed products in total potato purchases, 1974-2013</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72499/original/image-20150219-28197-kipqp2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72499/original/image-20150219-28197-kipqp2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72499/original/image-20150219-28197-kipqp2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72499/original/image-20150219-28197-kipqp2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72499/original/image-20150219-28197-kipqp2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72499/original/image-20150219-28197-kipqp2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72499/original/image-20150219-28197-kipqp2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72499/original/image-20150219-28197-kipqp2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Defra/Family Food</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The obvious conclusion is that farm produce has become less of a final product and more of a raw material, with more value created further along the supply chain. The food industry has gradually learned to make potatoes go further – even if it’s not the farmer that necessarily benefits. </p>
<p>This change in consumer demand has affected the types of potatoes that farmers grow. So although the multi-purpose Maris Piper is still the most popular variety, Markies and Lady Rosetta have become much more important because they are well suited to chips and crisps respectively. They both originate from the Netherlands. </p>
<p>Indeed, imported potatoes have become a much larger part of the picture – mostly as part of processed foods. Most of them come from the EU, principally Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. </p>
<p><strong>Origin of potatoes used in the UK, 1986 to 2013</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72500/original/image-20150219-28184-1ul3u2w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72500/original/image-20150219-28184-1ul3u2w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72500/original/image-20150219-28184-1ul3u2w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72500/original/image-20150219-28184-1ul3u2w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72500/original/image-20150219-28184-1ul3u2w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72500/original/image-20150219-28184-1ul3u2w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72500/original/image-20150219-28184-1ul3u2w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72500/original/image-20150219-28184-1ul3u2w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Defra</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So while the UK potato industry is undoubtedly in long-term decline, there are some important qualifications. We are still producing nearly six million tonnes of them every year. And because yields have risen over the years, it has become more profitable to grow potatoes. </p>
<p>The industry has restructured to cope with the new reality, leading many smaller players to sell up or switch to farming different products instead. Its current structure is a response to the need to deliver quality, value and potatoes for different kinds of products, while coping with increasingly volatile agricultural markets. </p>
<p>Some of the industry has meanwhile effectively moved over to Europe, whose growers are better at supplying product for processed potato foods. Prices have also held up in real terms, despite the falling demand, so things could certainly be worse for those who remain. The situation may not be great but it is not as bad as <a href="http://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-is-the-uk-heading-towards-mega-dairy-farms-36032">milk, for example,</a> where farmers struggle to cover their costs and are facing great uncertainty. </p>
<p>The challenge for the British sector, particularly the fresh-potato segment, is basically two-fold. First, growers need to stay focused on profitability, keeping a close eye as ever on yields and costs. Second is to make products more attractive by looking out for marketing opportunities to differentiate what they sell. </p>
<p>The likes of Albert Bartlett’s <a href="http://www.potato.org.uk/sites/default/files/publication_upload/PCL%20Potato%20Consumer%20Report-November%202014.pdf">Rooster potato</a> and <a href="http://greenvalepotatoes.co.uk">Greenvale’s Farm Fresh</a> are two potential examples to follow – both have managed to buck the downward trend by offering something new. <a href="http://www.heritage-potatoes.co.uk/">Heritage potatoes</a> are another, having marketed themselves as being part of a great tradition. More than 550 years after Sir John Hawkins first brought potatoes to England in 1563, over 6000 years after they were first cultivated in the Andes, this is the route to ensuring that they remain part of British farming heritage for centuries to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37814/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article derives from work funded under the Scottish Government Rural Affairs and the Environment Portfolio Strategic Research Programme 2011-2016, although the views are entirely Cesar's</span></em></p>The humble spud has been a main attraction on our dinner plates for over 500 years. Are its days numbered?Cesar Revoredo-Giha, Senior Economist and Team Leader of Food Marketing Research, Scotland's Rural CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.