tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/raw-materials-7014/articlesRaw materials – The Conversation2023-04-21T12:39:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2000472023-04-21T12:39:52Z2023-04-21T12:39:52ZRaw materials, or sacred beings? Lithium extraction puts two worldviews into tension<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522020/original/file-20230420-3136-24zus.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2585%2C2014&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A salt pyramid in Uyuni, Bolivia. The rainy season produces a mirror effect in the salt flat.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mario Orospe Hernandez</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Located in the heart of South America, Bolivia contains <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-lithium.pdf">the largest lithium deposits</a> in the world – an enviable position, in many countries’ eyes, as the market for electric vehicles takes off. Though EVs <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/lifetime-emissions-of-evs-are-lower-than-gasoline-cars-experts-say.html">emit fewer greenhouse gases</a> than fuel-powered vehicles, their batteries <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/minerals-used-in-electric-cars-compared-to-conventional-cars">require more minerals</a> – <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/23/1135952359/lithium-mines-batteries-electric-vehicles-climate-change-carbon%20%22%22">especially lithium</a>, which is also used to make batteries for smartphones and computers.</p>
<p>Unlike its neighbors <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/uploads/documents/Lithium%20Production%20in%20Chile%20and%20Argentina_Inverted%20Roles_JAN%202023.pdf">Chile and Argentina</a>, Bolivia has yet to become a major player in the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/chart-countries-produce-lithium-world/">global lithium market</a>. In part, this is because its <a href="https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20190703-bolivias-surreal-rainbow-landscape">high-altitude salt flats</a> aren’t suited to the usual <a href="https://www.saltworkstech.com/articles/lithium-brine-extraction-technologies-and-approaches/">extraction method</a>, solar evaporation.</p>
<p>But that looks poised to change: In January 2023, state company YLB <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/in-bolivia-china-signs-deal-for-worlds-largest-lithium-reserves/">signed an agreement</a> with the Chinese consortium CBC, which includes the world’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/business/china-catl-electric-car-batteries.html">largest producer of lithium-ion batteries</a>, to <a href="https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/two-new-ways-of-extracting-lithium-from-brine/21807823">introduce a new method</a> called direct lithium extraction.</p>
<p>It may prove an economic boon. But since colonial times, the <a href="https://oxfordre.com/latinamericanhistory/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780199366439.001.0001/acrefore-9780199366439-e-2;jsessionid=E39888132A5FB9312DEDF72A288896C2">legacy of mineral abundance</a> in Bolivia has also been one of pollution, poverty and exploitation. While some residents are hopeful about the potential benefits of the growing lithium industry, others are concerned about <a href="https://energynews.pro/en/lithium-mining-in-south-america-between-hopes-and-disillusionment/">extraction’s local impact</a>. In particular, direct lithium extraction demands a great deal of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00387-5">fresh water</a>, potentially <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/lithium-mining-water-andes-argentina">endangering surrounding ecosystems</a> as has happened in other parts of <a href="https://dialogochino.net/en/extractive-industries/35354-white-gold-the-violent-water-dispute-in-argentina/">South America’s “lithium triangle</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521465/original/file-20230418-14-zy1au9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The pale expanse of a salt flat beneath a bright blue sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521465/original/file-20230418-14-zy1au9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521465/original/file-20230418-14-zy1au9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521465/original/file-20230418-14-zy1au9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521465/original/file-20230418-14-zy1au9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521465/original/file-20230418-14-zy1au9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521465/original/file-20230418-14-zy1au9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521465/original/file-20230418-14-zy1au9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lithium lies in the underground brine beneath this salt flat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mario Orospe Hernandez</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A rapid escalation of lithium extraction in the Bolivian Andes also represents a looming clash between two fundamentally different views of nature: <a href="https://www.cbhd.org/dignitas-articles/ivan-illich-on-the-convivial-industrial-society">modern industrial society’s</a> and that of the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0962629821001165">Indigenous communities</a> who call the region home – a focus of my current <a href="https://csrc.asu.edu/beyondsecularization">research collaborations</a> and <a href="https://search.asu.edu/profile/3431913">dissertation project</a>. </p>
<h2>The Pachamama</h2>
<p>Bolivia is home to <a href="https://www.iwgia.org/en/bolivia.html">36 ethnic groups</a> across its highland and lowland regions. <a href="https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/who-are-the-aymara-people.html">Aymara</a> and <a href="https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/quechua-people.html">Quechua</a> peoples comprise most of the Indigenous communities in <a href="https://www.livescience.com/27897-andes-mountains.html">the Andes Mountains</a>.</p>
<p>For these cultures, nature is not a means to human ends. Instead, it is seen as a group of beings with personhood, history and power beyond human reach. For example, the female divinity of fertility, to whom people owe respect, is the <a href="https://www.reutersagency.com/en/reuters-community/thanking-pachamama-the-andean-peoples-pay-tribute-to-mother-earth/">Pachamama</a>. Since she sustains and secures the reproduction of life, Andean Indigenous people make offerings to the Pachamama in <a href="https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Bolivians-Honour-Mother-Earth-Pachamama-With-Traditional-Ceremony-20180801-0020.html">ancestral rituals</a> known as <a href="https://bolivianexpress.org/blog/posts/challa">“challas”</a> that seek to reinforce their connection with her.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521463/original/file-20230418-20-9bmg0y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A handful of people bend over rows of crops while working in a hillside area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521463/original/file-20230418-20-9bmg0y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521463/original/file-20230418-20-9bmg0y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521463/original/file-20230418-20-9bmg0y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521463/original/file-20230418-20-9bmg0y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521463/original/file-20230418-20-9bmg0y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521463/original/file-20230418-20-9bmg0y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521463/original/file-20230418-20-9bmg0y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Local food producers in Chicani, a village on the outskirts of La Paz, Bolivia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mario Orospe Hernandez</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similarly, highland groups recognize mountains not as a set of inert rocks, but as ancestral guardians called <a href="https://bolivianexpress.org/blog/posts/the-achachilas">“Achachilas” in Aymara</a> and <a href="https://www.ticketmachupicchu.com/apus-spirits-mountain/">“Apus” in Quechua</a>. Each Andean community praises a nearby mountain whom they believe protects and oversees their lives.</p>
<p>In Uyuni, for example, where one of the <a href="https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/bolivia-chooses-chinese-consortium-led-by-catl-for-1-billion-lithium-investment">two new lithium plants</a> will be constructed, Indigenous communities acknowledge the presence of these sacred beings. To this day, worshipers in nearby Lipez region explain the salt flat’s origin with <a href="https://beyondbeanie.com/blogs/news/the-legend-of-tunupa-origin-of-the-salar-de-uyuni">a traditional legend</a>: It is the mother’s milk of their Apu, a female volcano named Tunupa.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://politicaltheology.com/talal-asad/">religious concepts</a> such as “sacred” or “divine” do not necessarily capture the relationships that Andean Indigenous people have long established with these <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/earth-beings">more-than-human beings</a>, who have been <a href="https://explorersweb.com/huacas-sacred-objects-of-the-incas/">known since pre-colonial times as “huacas</a>.” These entities are not considered “gods,” or thought of as dealing with otherworldly beliefs. Rather, they are treated as integral to people’s earthly everyday life.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521464/original/file-20230418-28-ly3xzi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A small stack of stones sits before a sandy-colored hill." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521464/original/file-20230418-28-ly3xzi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521464/original/file-20230418-28-ly3xzi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521464/original/file-20230418-28-ly3xzi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521464/original/file-20230418-28-ly3xzi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521464/original/file-20230418-28-ly3xzi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521464/original/file-20230418-28-ly3xzi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521464/original/file-20230418-28-ly3xzi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Quechua huaca, also known as the sanctuary of the sacred rock, on the Island of the Sun in Lake Titicaca.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mario Orospe Hernandez</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/honoring-pachamama-central-to-bolivian-culture/5267444.html">before meals</a>, Quechua and Aymara peoples throw coca leaves or spill their drinks on the ground to share their food with these beings as a sign of gratitude and reciprocity. </p>
<h2>Lifeless matter</h2>
<p>In industrial societies, on the other hand, nature is understood as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-230-21244-2_2">something external to humanity</a> – an object that can be mastered through science and technology. The <a href="https://depts.washington.edu/chid/intersections_Winter_2012/Adam_Holzman_Karl_Polanyi_and_the_Rise_of_Modernity.pdf">modern economy</a> turns nature into a source of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rawmaterials.asp">raw materials</a>: morally and spiritually inert matter that is there to be extracted and mobilized worldwide. Within this framework, a mineral like lithium is a resource to be developed in the pursuit of economic gains for human beings.</p>
<p>In fact, the history of these competing notions is deeply entwined with the history of the colonial era, as different cultures <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/a-billion-black-anthropocenes-or-none">came into violent conflict</a>. As the Spanish discovered the mineral bounty of the so-called New World, like gold and silver, they began an intensive <a href="https://sldinfo.com/2020/12/potosi-and-its-silver-the-beginnings-of-globalization/">extraction of its riches</a>, relying on forced labor from local people and imported slaves.</p>
<p>The concept of “raw materials” can be traced to the theological notion of “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/agph-2020-0147">prime matter</a>.” The term originally comes from Aristotle, whose work was introduced to Christianity via Latin translations around the 12th century. In the way Christians adapted his idea of prime matter, everything was <a href="https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Great_Chain_of_Being">ordered by its level of “perfection</a>,” ranging from the lowest level – prime matter, the most basic “stuff” of the world – to rocks, plants, animals, humans, angels and, finally, God.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521467/original/file-20230418-22-zqggqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white engraving shows people working in a mine with a ladder leading to the entrance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521467/original/file-20230418-22-zqggqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521467/original/file-20230418-22-zqggqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521467/original/file-20230418-22-zqggqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521467/original/file-20230418-22-zqggqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521467/original/file-20230418-22-zqggqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521467/original/file-20230418-22-zqggqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521467/original/file-20230418-22-zqggqg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A silver mine at Potosi, New Spain – now Bolivia – depicted by Theodor de Bry around 1590.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/indians-working-in-a-goldmine-at-potosi-new-spain-line-news-photo/542860359?adppopup=true">ullstein bild/ullstein bild via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Catholic Church and the Spanish Empire later used this medieval understanding of matter as something passive, without spirit, to <a href="https://upittpress.org/books/9780822944607/">justify the extraction</a> of resources during colonial times. The closer things were to prime matter, their argument supposed, the more they needed human imprint and an external purpose to make them valuable.</p>
<p>This notion was also used by Christian colonizers who were intent on destroying traditions that they saw as idolatrous. In their eyes, reverence toward a mountain or the earth itself was worshiping a mere “thing,” a false god. The church and the empire believed it was critical to <a href="https://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/vocesnovae/vol5/iss1/7/?utm_source=digitalcommons.chapman.edu%2Fvocesnovae%2Fvol5%2Fiss1%2F7&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=PDFCoverPages">desacralize these more-than-human beings</a> and treat them as mere resources.</p>
<p>This flattened vision of nature served as the basis for the modern economic concept of raw materials, which was introduced in the 18th century with the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/1668/chapter-abstract/141230548?redirectedFrom=fulltext">birth of economics</a> as a social science.</p>
<h2>The road ahead</h2>
<p>Bolivia’s lithium projects pose a new potential clash of worldviews. However, extraction initiatives have faced <a href="https://lagukinfo.wixsite.com/lag-uk/post/twists-and-setbacks-of-the-lithium-industrialization-process-in-bolivia">severe setbacks</a> in the last few years, including <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/bolivians-protest-over-lithium-deal-with-german-company/a-50732216">social protests</a>, the 2019 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/world/americas/bolivia-election-evo-morales.html#click=https://t.co/HGrEx2Yd1h">political crisis</a> and <a href="https://dialogochino.net/en/extractive-industries/57525-understanding-bolivias-long-struggle-to-exploit-its-lithium-reserves/">a lack of necessary technology</a>. The Chinese deal represents <a href="https://www-mhe-gob-bo.translate.goog/2023/01/20/bolivia-presenta-al-mundo-el-modelo-soberano-de-inversiones-en-la-industria-del-litio/?_x_tr_sl=es&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp">a new milestone</a>, yet <a href="https://fundacionsolon-org.translate.goog/2023/01/20/la-era-de-industrializacion-del-litio/?_x_tr_sl=es&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp">its outcomes are still uncertain</a>: for the economy, for local communities and for the Earth.</p>
<p>Today, electric vehicles are widely considered part of the solution to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/17/why-the-guardian-is-changing-the-language-it-uses-about-the-environment">climate crisis</a>. Yet they will necessitate <a href="https://techinformed.com/almost-400-new-mines-needed-to-meet-future-ev-battery-demand-data-finds/">a mining surge</a> to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/09/02/1031726626/these-tribal-activists-want-biden-to-stop-a-planned-lithium-mine-on-their-sacred">meet their battery demands</a>. If societies really want a greener future, technological shifts such as EVs will be just part of the answer, alongside other changes like more sustainable <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-planning-is-now-on-the-front-line-of-the-climate-crisis-this-is-what-it-means-for-our-cities-and-towns-193452">urban planning</a> and improved public transportation. </p>
<p>But in addition, perhaps other cultures could learn from Andean relations with nature as more-than-human beings: an inspiration to <a href="https://greattransition.org/publication/farewell-to-development">rethink development</a> and turn our own way of living into something less destructive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mario Orospe Hernández receives funding from Arizona State University, the Fulbright-García Robles Program and the Mexican National Council for Science and Technology (CONACyT).</span></em></p>Lithium extraction in Bolivia poses more than environmental questions: It illustrates how notions about ‘raw materials’ can be at odds with Indigenous relations with the land.Mario Orospe Hernández, Ph.D. Candidate in Religious Studies, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1849032022-06-12T09:05:07Z2022-06-12T09:05:07ZRetracing Belgium’s dark past in the Congo, and attempts to forge deeper ties<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468293/original/file-20220610-17-cj0qik.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and Belgian King Philippe toast at an official banquet in Kinshasa.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicolas Maeterlinck/Belga/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/retracing-belgiums-dark-past-in-the-congo-and-attempts-to-forge-deeper-ties-184903&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>Belgian King Philippe and his wife Queen Mathilde recently led a delegation on a <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/234324/belgian-king-and-queen-leave-for-state-visit-to-congo-tomorrow">week-long visit</a> to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The trip was billed as a chance to recalibrate the relationship between the two countries after a dark colonial past. We spoke to Julien Bobineau, who has researched the narratives around Belgium’s history with the Congo, about the visit. And if it could lead to a <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2022/06/07/dr-congo-belgian-king-arrives-in-kinshasa-for-first-official-visit//#:%7E:text=Belgium's%20colonisation%20of%20the%20Congo,the%20king%2C%20echoed%20the%20sentiment.">new partnership</a> between the two countries.</em></p>
<h2>What is Belgium’s history in the DRC?</h2>
<p>There’s a dark history between Belgium and the DRC that started in the 19th century.</p>
<p>Between 1884 and 1885, there were a series of negotiations between European powers to formalise claims to territory in Africa. It culminated in the <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9780822385035-003/pdf">Berlin Conference</a>. African stakeholders were not involved in the negotiations. </p>
<p>During the conference, Belgian King Leopold II obtained international legitimacy for the ownership of the lands in what is now the Congo. </p>
<p>From then on, he was the private ruler of the État Indépendant du Congo (Congo Free State), which was 80 times the size of his Kingdom of Belgium. Until his death in 1909, Leopold II never set foot in “his” colony.</p>
<p>But he profited enormously from the Congo’s raw materials. </p>
<p>It is <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/King-Leopolds-Ghost-Heroism-Colonial/dp/1447211359">estimated</a> that about half of the then 20 million inhabitants of the Congo lost their lives due to the conditions people had to endure to extract raw materials, mainly of rubber. Some historians <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23133898">refer to this</a> as a genocide. </p>
<p>After international protests, Leopold II sold the private colony to the Belgian state in 1908. After the takeover, the country was renamed Congo Belge, but the interests remained the same. In southeast Congo, the Belgians discovered large ore deposits and exported copper, tropical wood, cotton, cocoa and coffee to Europe. </p>
<p>After slavery was officially abolished in 1910, Congolese workers received a wage for their work in the mines and on the plantations. However, this was much less than the payment Europeans received for the same work. </p>
<p>This colonial racism continued in everyday life until the middle of the 20th century. Cities were divided into “white” and “black” neighbourhoods. The Congolese were only allowed to visit the restaurants, bars and cinemas of “white” Europeans with special permission.</p>
<p>From the 1950s, a broad movement <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9783110709308/html?lang=de">formed</a> in Congo Belge to protest against Belgian foreign rule. Belgian King Baudouin I finally relented and “released” the DR Congo into independence on 30 June 1960. Joseph Kasavubu was elected the first president, with Patrice Lumumba as prime minister. </p>
<p>However, shortly after independence, there was a falling out between the independent government and Western powers, primarily the US and Belgium. They wanted to retain control over the raw materials in the Congo. </p>
<p>After only two months in power, Lumumba was deposed in September 1960. He <a href="https://www.cadtm.org/In-memory-of-Patrice-Lumumba-assassinated-on-17-January-1961">was assassinated</a> by his political opponents in Katanga in January 1961 with the help of Belgian and US secret services. </p>
<p>Belgium’s involvement in the political assassination was concealed until a commission of enquiry, <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/50661/facing-the-truths-of-belgium-s-colonial-past-the-unresolved-case-of-patrice-lumumba-s-death">launched</a> by the Belgian parliament in 1999, found Belgium partially responsible for Lumumba’s death.</p>
<h2>What’s happened to relations since independence?</h2>
<p>There have been three major shifts.</p>
<p>The first is when Joseph-Désiré Mobutu came to power in 1965. An army commander, he <a href="https://www.blackpast.org/global-african-history/mobutu-joseph-desire-mobutu-sese-seko-kuku-waza-banga-1930-1997/">seized power</a> and established an autocratic dictatorship that lasted until 1997. </p>
<p>Belgian-Congolese diplomatic relations were characterised by ups and downs during Mobutu’s reign. On the one hand, Belgium wanted to maintain ties with the former colony for geopolitical and economic reasons. On the other, the Belgian government had to <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1997-04-29-9704290128-story.html">respond diplomatically</a> to the countless human rights abuses committed by Mobutu’s regime. </p>
<p>This dilemma was exacerbated by two aspects. Firstly, Mobutu repeatedly pointed out Belgium’s moral responsibility to the country resulting from colonial rule, especially in crisis situations. Secondly, there was <a href="https://sciendo.com/article/10.1515/werk-2017-0007">colonial nostalgia</a> among the Belgian population. The colonial rule was romantically glorified in Belgium. </p>
<p>The second shift happened much later. In 2020, the <a href="https://www.africamuseum.be/en">AfricanMuseum</a> changed its guidelines in dealing with objects from colonial contexts. The <a href="https://www.africamuseum.be/de/about_us/restitution">goal</a> was to make negotiations on restitution possible.</p>
<p>The museum, in the Brussels suburb of Tervuren, was founded in 1897 by Leopold II at the height of colonialism. It served many Belgians as their first point of contact with the African colony. Racist images and colonial bias were <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/39892/pdf">constructed</a> to justify foreign rule in the Congo. </p>
<p>Hundreds of thousands of ethnographic objects – mainly looted objects, but also “donations” – were brought to Tervuren and are still stored in the museum today. </p>
<p>Following this general paradigm shift, in October 2020, the Free University of Brussels agreed to return human remains from Congo to the University of Lubumbashi. And in March 2022, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-takes-first-small-step-in-returning-art-to-congo/">announced the return</a> of 84,000 Congolese artefacts. </p>
<p>The third shift is King Philippe’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/30/belgian-king-philippe-expresses-profound-regrets-for-brutal-colonial-rule">letter</a> to President Felix Tshisekedi on 30 June 2020, the anniversary of Congolese independence. In the letter, the king expressed his deep regret for the colonial injustices committed in the Congo. This was against the backdrop of the global <a href="https://www.rosalux.eu/en/article/1796.black-lives-matter-in-belgium-june-july-2020.html">Black Lives Matter</a> movement in which protests against racism and the neglect of colonial history grew within the Belgian population. </p>
<p>It was the first time that a member of the royal family had addressed the Congolese people with such words. On the same day, then Belgian Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès also expressed her regret regarding Belgium’s colonial past. It was the first time a Belgian head of state had done this in that way – a paradigmatic turning point in the country’s historical policy.</p>
<h2>What is Belgium’s proposed reparations plan?</h2>
<p>In October 2021, the Belgian parliament <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/117289/parliament-approves-commission-on-belgiums-colonial-past">set up a commission</a> to deal with colonial injustice. Ten experts were tasked with discussing several issues, including possible financial reparations and a stronger anchoring of Belgian colonial history in education curricula and society. </p>
<p>The commission is also to provide the basis for a reorientation of international relations with former colonial territories. </p>
<p>When it comes to the restitution of objects from colonial contexts, the Belgian government has allocated 2 million euros (about US$2.1 million) to research the provenance of the objects. </p>
<p>For many Congolese in the diaspora in Belgium and in the Congo, this doesn’t go far enough. They also <a href="https://information.tv5monde.com/video/philippe-de-belgique-en-rdc-la-population-congolaise-attend-plus-que-des-regrets">demand</a> an official apology for the colonial atrocities. The government and the king have so far only formulated a “regret”.</p>
<h2>What are the possibilities of improved diplomatic ties?</h2>
<p>For relations to truly improve, the Belgian state must acknowledge its historical responsibility more strongly. It must negotiate politically on an equal footing with its former colonies. </p>
<p>Reparations are also an important issue. Even if many Belgians believe that they cannot be held responsible for the crimes of their ancestors, the Belgian economy profited greatly from colonial exploitation – and in principle continues to do so today. </p>
<p>Congolese societies, in contrast, were deprived of the potential to ‘develop’ due to exploitation, slavery and genocide. The different current economic situations prove this historically generated discrepancy for which there must be a compensation.</p>
<p>The broad debate alone can only be conducted in Belgian society alongside Congolese actors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julien Bobineau received funding from the Bavarian Elite Network in form of a PhD scholarship, provided by the Federal Government of Bavaria (Germany). </span></em></p>For relations with the DRC to truly improve, the Belgian state must acknowledge its historical responsibility more strongly.Julien Bobineau, Assistant Professor, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität JenaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1780632022-03-06T08:21:29Z2022-03-06T08:21:29ZGhana’s Cedi is under stress: some long, medium, and short term solutions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449746/original/file-20220303-23-13d1lw3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Ghanaian currency is facing its worst run of depreciation in years</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">MaxpIxel/Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>An economy with strong fundamentals is one that is resilient, has a well-developed exports base, is industrialised, and creates jobs. That kind of economy can mobilise resources domestically, without much reliance on external support, and can even borrow at a lower cost. The citizens of this kind of economy have good roads, good transportation, good health, and good educational systems. They are well-resourced and free from civil unrest.</p>
<p>For decades, African countries have chalked up successes but these have not been significant enough to transform their economies. Most countries on the continent are still far from achieving these indicators of an economy with strong fundamentals. They often export primary commodities and import finished products.</p>
<p>The Ghanaian economy is no exception. It is still very much the Guggisberg economy. Sir Gordon Guggisberg was a British empire colonial administrator in what was then Gold Coast (1919-1927). He designed an economy to focus on the export of raw materials and importation of finished goods. Hence the moniker. </p>
<p>A century later, cocoa and gold are still Ghana’s major exports. Ghana is Africa’s <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/06/23/updated-top-10-gold-producing-countries/?sh=122bfca2ce2e">top gold exporter</a> at 138.7 tonnes. It has since added oil and gas, and some non-traditional commodities. </p>
<p>Ghana’s reliance on exporting raw materials and importing finished products contributed to the country’s persistent demand for, and less supply of, foreign currencies. This is why, for a long time, Ghana’s cedi has been depreciating against the other major trading currencies.</p>
<h2>Why is the cedi depreciating so fast?</h2>
<p>Ghana is an import-dependent economy. Because of this, the country continues to buy foreign currency to meet its import demands, with less supply of foreign exchange from its exports. Sometimes, the country records a net gain with exports earnings exceeding import costs, but these are paper gains. The actual money is repatriated by the foreign companies that operate in the country. The retention law is not effective to restrain them from repatriating all their profits.</p>
<p>The depreciation of the cedi has always been seasonal. It’s at its worst between February to March. This is the period during which Ghana-based multinationals repatriate profits. Also, local businesses that had imported goods on credit ahead of the Christmas season settle their debts. These are the major causes of the cedi depreciation. </p>
<p>And the fundamentals have not improved significantly over the years.</p>
<p>The exchange rate was quite stable, especially during the peak of the COVID-19 period (2020-2021), because imports slowed due to border closures by most countries. But as of 28th February 2022, the Ghanaian cedi was the worst performing currency among 15 top currencies in Africa, depreciating by 7.6% within the first two months of 2022.</p>
<h2>So what has sped up the decline?</h2>
<p>The first reason for the recent depreciation is the increased demand for foreign currencies since most businesses in Ghana are now recovering from the COVID-19 shock. This is not limited to Ghana. Most businesses globally are recovering and getting into serious production.</p>
<p>The second reason is the country’s inability to borrow from the international capital market. Because Ghana isn’t able to generate enough foreign exchange through exports, successive governments have tried to manage the depreciation of the cedi through borrowing from the international capital market, issuing dollar-denominated domestic bonds, and depleting the country’s foreign exchange reserves.</p>
<p>Whenever Ghana’s sovereign bond is no longer profitable and there are not enough reserves to shore up the Cedi, the currency depreciates. The events of March 2019 provide a perfect picture. That month the US Federal Reserve increased its interest rate making it more profitable to attract investors. Investors responded by selling sovereign bonds of developing countries like Ghana.</p>
<p>The world economy is bouncing back after the pandemic, pushing global inflation up. Inflation has moved from 3.1% in 2020 to 3.8% in 2022. The US inflation has risen from 1.35% in December 2021 to 7.46% in February 2022. The US Federal Reserve has responded by increasing the interest rate, making US sovereign bonds very attractive. Many investors are now selling their bonds in developing countries like Ghana to purchase those of advanced-economies like the US. </p>
<h2>Effects of the depreciation</h2>
<p>Depreciation of any currency makes its imports more expensive and exports cheaper. Some countries intentionally devalue their currencies to make their exports cheaper. However, because Ghana‘s export sector is not significantly developed, the country is not able to take advantage of the Cedi’s depreciation by exporting more and earning more foreign exchange. The effect of currency depreciation has been an increase in the cost of imported goods. Most of the imported goods are intermediate goods that are used for local production. This has led to rising inflation.</p>
<p>For example, the ex-pump prices of fuel depend a lot on the exchange rate since a greater part of the refined fuel is imported. Currently, there is increased global demand for crude oil as most industries are now recovering from the effects of COVID. At the same time, the supply of crude oil has slowed down after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/russia-invades-ukraine-5-essential-reads-from-experts-177815">Russian invasion of Ukraine</a>. The international crude oil price is expected to continue increasing for some time. </p>
<p>The combined effect of cedi depreciation and increases in international crude oil prices means that the ex-pump price of fuel in Ghana is expected to keep rising, at least until the end of the year 2022. </p>
<p>In response to high inflation, the Bank of Ghana will increase its policy rate in an attempt to control the growth of credit. This will lead to an increase in the cost of borrowing. Higher borrowing costs will eventually lead to increased costs of production, which will further increase inflation. </p>
<h2>Solutions</h2>
<p>The long-term solution is for the country to industrialise, add value to its exports, increase local production and cut down on imports so that there will be enough foreign exchange in the country. The government’s policy of modernising agriculture, and the one-district-one-factory should be improved to speed up the process of industrialisation.</p>
<p>The medium-term solution is for the government to be able to raise more domestic revenue to be able to service its debts, and finance its development without a heavy reliance on borrowing.</p>
<p>The short-term solution is for the government to borrow externally and bring foreign currency into the country. This can only happen after the government demonstrates to the investment community its ability to mobilise domestic revenue to service debt. </p>
<p>As a matter of urgency, the government must revise the design of the electronic levy (e-levy) and pass it within the shortest possible time to access Eurobonds. According to the international credit rating agencies, the passage of the e-levy and the reversal of the 50% benchmark values at the ports will signal to international investors that government of Ghana is on the fiscal consolidation path and that it can raise domestic revenue to service its debt. </p>
<p>In the short term, government can also demonstrate its ability to mobilise domestic revenue by paying attention to other sources of revenue such as property tax, tax exemptions, and natural resources.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178063/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adu Owusu Sarkodie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Ghanaian currency is facing structural hurdles.Adu Owusu Sarkodie, Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of GhanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1416432020-07-02T17:04:22Z2020-07-02T17:04:22ZRe-localising the extraction of mineral resources: the challenges of lithium in Europe<p>Among the challenges that await Europe and France in “the world to come” is the re-localisation of our supply of essential mineral ores. The fact is that France <a href="https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/2018-10/chiffres-stats761-matieres-mai2016.pdf">imports almost 100% of its metals</a> and a significant proportion of the strategic minerals that its industry uses.</p>
<p>In addition to greater strategic independence, re-localisation would also improve the country’s carbon budget and the economic balance of its productive sectors. With the ongoing climate crisis, importing raw materials from the other side of the world is not a sustainable solution given its high CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.</p>
<p>Metals such as nickel, copper, cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements are used in the batteries of our computers, tablets and smartphones, but above all in those used in electric vehicles. Economists agree that there will most likely be a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-future-of-electric-vehicles-according-to-experts-in-the-energy-sector-91943">strong increase in the number of electric vehicles</a> in the coming years.</p>
<p>Up to now the potential value of <a href="http://www.mineralinfo.fr/">France’s mineral resources</a> has been <a href="http://infoterre.brgm.fr/rapports/RP-68321-FR.pdf">largely underestimated</a>. Indeed, the country has significant resources of industrial minerals as well as metals such as tungsten, antimony, gold, lead, zinc, germanium, copper, lithium and molybdenum.</p>
<p>Lithium is a textbook example. Despite having France’s having substantial resources and growing needs, we continue to import massive quantities of metals from the other side of the world while ignoring those that lie under our feet – today, lithium is primarily extracted in Australia and Chile and refined in China. Yet the raw materials needed for the energy and digital transition are actually right under our feet. </p>
<p>The main lithium resources in Europe are located in <a href="https://mc-56397411-4872-452d-b48e-428890-cdn-endpoint.azureedge.net/-/media/Content/Documents/Operations/Jadar/RT-Jadar-Fact-sheet-EN.pdf">Serbia</a> (Jadar deposit), Portugal, Spain, Finland and Austria. In France, they can be found in the <a href="http://infoterre.brgm.fr/rapports/RP-68321-FR.pdf">Massif Central</a> (Beauvoir and Montebras granites, etc.) and the Armorican Massif.</p>
<h2>The French subsurface has extensive lithium resources</h2>
<p>Lithium-bearing mineral resources are distributed unequally and in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169136818308011">several geological formations in France and Europe</a>. There are different lithium concentrations in rocks such as rare metal granites, pegmatites and clay minerals. However, these resources have hardly been exploited and developed to date.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338865/original/file-20200601-95032-1jqjizo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338865/original/file-20200601-95032-1jqjizo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338865/original/file-20200601-95032-1jqjizo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338865/original/file-20200601-95032-1jqjizo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338865/original/file-20200601-95032-1jqjizo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338865/original/file-20200601-95032-1jqjizo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338865/original/file-20200601-95032-1jqjizo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338865/original/file-20200601-95032-1jqjizo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An example of lithium-rich rock called pegmatite, with a characteristic purple colour and which is composed of lithiniferous micas, feldspar and quartz. Chédeville (Haute-Vienne). The pick of a geologist’s hammer indicates the scale.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">E. Gloaguen (BRGM)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2018, BRGM completed an inventory of <a href="http://infoterre.brgm.fr/rapports/RP-68321-FR.pdf">lithium resources in mainland France</a> that revealed deposits with a definite potential for recovery. The advantages of these deposits are that they include lithium along with industrial rocks and minerals such as feldspars, quartz, kaolin or with metals such as tin, tantalum or tungsten. Were these resources developed, France could be self-sufficient for lithium with a potential production of more than 200,000 tonnes of lithium metal.</p>
<p>Like most of its European neighbours, France currently imports large quantities of the metals needed for its industry. This offshoring of mining sectors allows us to conceal the conditions under which these substances are extracted. If conducted without the necessary standards and controls, this activity can cause environmental damage, including unregulated discharges of waste, and generally do not guarantee workers the necessary standard measures for their protection. It also pose problems in terms of <a href="https://theconversation.com/au-chili-changer-la-constitution-pour-repenser-lacces-aux-ressources-127460">sharing and having access to water</a> in arid regions, for example in the salt flats of South America.</p>
<p>One of the most striking examples is the one illustrated in Guillaume Pitron’s book, <a href="https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/article-author/guillaume-pitron/"><em>La guerre des métaux rares : La face cachée de la transition énergétique et numérique</em></a> (<em>The Rare Metals War: The Dark Side of Energy Transition and Digitalisation</em>). The author highlights the social, health and safety conditions of mines in Asia that extract rare-earth elements, and also their devastating environmental impacts, in particular the pollution of soil and groundwater.</p>
<h2>The technological challenges of re-localisation</h2>
<p>When considering the re-localisation of this sector to France, the first issue is scientific. Our researchers (geologists, geochemists, economic geologists) are working to develop innovative methods to better understand how these resources are formed, both for more efficient exploitation and to discover deposits as close as possible to the centres of consumption to reduce the environmental impact.</p>
<p>We will also need to be able to develop methods that can be used all over France, for extracting mineral resources that are adapted to our geology. Lithium resources are diverse, varied and heterogeneously distributed in our subsurface, not all the industrial processes for extracting lithium from the various geological reserves are currently operational. This is due either to <a href="http://www.mineralinfo.fr/ecomine/marche-lithium-en-2020-enjeux-paradoxes">technological reasons, or because they are not cost-effective</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338868/original/file-20200601-95065-1lkzjey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338868/original/file-20200601-95065-1lkzjey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=120&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338868/original/file-20200601-95065-1lkzjey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=120&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338868/original/file-20200601-95065-1lkzjey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=120&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338868/original/file-20200601-95065-1lkzjey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=151&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338868/original/file-20200601-95065-1lkzjey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=151&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338868/original/file-20200601-95065-1lkzjey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=151&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Beauvoir rare metals granite in the Allier department, currently being mined for kaolin (2012).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">J. Melleton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The energy transition therefore requires innovative research and development for the extraction of these mineral resources, both to make existing processes less harmful from an environmental point of view and to develop new methods. This research activity through collaboration with the academic and university world could leverage growth for the whole sector in France.</p>
<h2>A sector encouraged by Europe</h2>
<p>At a European level, the EU is working to promote the lithium industry by funding research projects with the <a href="https://eitrawmaterials.eu/">European Institute of Innovation and Technology, Raw Materials section</a>, within projects such as the <a href="http://www.frame.lneg.pt/">H2020 GeoERA FRAME</a> on European critical metals and through <a href="https://www.lithium-institute.eu/">the European Lithium Institute</a>, of which BRGM is one of the founding members.</p>
<p>In the coming months and years, numerous projects for the manufacture of battery factories (“gigafactories”) could also appear in Europe. The short-term objective would be to build an economically strong European sector: a kind of <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/policy/european-battery-alliance_fr">“Airbus of batteries”</a>. In this context, there is no doubt that lithium supply sources will need to be diversified to meet growing demand.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338866/original/file-20200601-95049-1ps0ae9.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338866/original/file-20200601-95049-1ps0ae9.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338866/original/file-20200601-95049-1ps0ae9.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338866/original/file-20200601-95049-1ps0ae9.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338866/original/file-20200601-95049-1ps0ae9.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338866/original/file-20200601-95049-1ps0ae9.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338866/original/file-20200601-95049-1ps0ae9.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338866/original/file-20200601-95049-1ps0ae9.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Spodumene-bearing pegmatite, at Mina Alberto, Spain (2010).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">J. Melleton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One interesting possibility is the extraction of mineral substances contained in hot aquifers <a href="http://infoterre.brgm.fr/rapports/RP-55729-FR.pdf">called geothermal waters</a>, located in the Rhine Graben on the German-French border. These mineral-rich thermal waters are currently being exploited for the production of electricity and heat. They are very often rich in lithium and other metals due to the interactions and exchanges between water and rock that occur deep within the Earth.</p>
<p>If exploited, they would be a win-win valorisation of the energy resources of our subsurface: the geothermal water is pumped up to produce electricity (the steam is used to drive turbines), but can also produce heat (heat exchanger) and before being reinjected, the mineral substances will be <a href="https://www.brgm.fr/projet/eugeli-extraction-lithium-partir-saumure-geothermale-europe">extracted from this brine</a>.</p>
<p>For European stakeholders, the challenges of the coming years will be to learn how to produce lithium locally and sustainably from different geological sources, including respecting local environmental and social issues. This diversification is essential, and must also not overshadow the need to increase our recycling capacity so as to preserve our resources.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Romain Millot received funding from EIT Raw Materials for a research project (EuGeLi).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Gloaguen has received funding from the French National Research Agency (ANR).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jérémie Melleton received funding from EIT Raw Material for a research project (UpDeep Project). Jérémie Melleton is a member of the Société Géologique de France.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Blandine Gourcerol et Gaetan Lefebvre ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>Europe imports the majority of its lithium, an essential material for the energy transition, yet is home to significant deposits.Romain Millot, Chercheur, géochimiste, BRGMBlandine Gourcerol, Chercheuse, BRGMEric Gloaguen, Researcher at BRGM and associated researcher at ISTO, BRGMGaetan Lefebvre, Chercheur, BRGMJérémie Melleton, Chercheur, BRGMLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1256132019-10-24T16:54:48Z2019-10-24T16:54:48ZThe ‘circularity paradox’ in the European steel industry<p>Recycling, remanufacturing and refurbishing are indisputably important tools for reducing our consumption of natural resources. These activities contribute to what scientists call circularity: <a href="https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/publications/growth-within-a-circular-economy-vision-for-a-competitive-europe">making sure we use materials for as long as possible</a>, over and over, so that we exploit nature less and less. </p>
<p>Doing so requires creating what are called “secondary markets”, where used materials are gathered up, reworked and injected back into the economy. While this is an essential part of creating circularity, there can sometimes be unintended and negative consequences. A striking example is the secondary metals market: it has <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/es303149z">been a success</a>), creating <a href="https://www.green-alliance.org.uk/unemployment_and_the_circular_economy_in_Europe.php">new jobs and business opportunities</a>), but the environmentally friendly goal that it once had is no longer a priority.</p>
<p>In Europe, we recycle more than <a href="https://www.worldsteel.org/steel-by-topic/raw-materials.html">70% of used steel on average</a>, and just over 30% of all recycled or remanufactured steel is produced in furnaces that use <a href="https://bir.org/publications/brochures/">electricity rather than burning coal</a>. Not bad, but no longer enough when considering the <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/246397/estimated-demand-for-steel-worldwide-by-region/">increasing steel demand from developing nations</a>, which are growing rapidly.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298354/original/file-20191023-119405-1nzyyz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298354/original/file-20191023-119405-1nzyyz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298354/original/file-20191023-119405-1nzyyz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298354/original/file-20191023-119405-1nzyyz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298354/original/file-20191023-119405-1nzyyz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298354/original/file-20191023-119405-1nzyyz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298354/original/file-20191023-119405-1nzyyz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298354/original/file-20191023-119405-1nzyyz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Examples of growing and mature apparent steel consumption levels as function of GDP.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ernst&Young</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although iron itself is an element that is infinitely recyclable, steel is a combination of iron and other elements such as carbon, nickel, chromium or manganese. Different compositions alter the mechanical properties of steel for use in <a href="https://www.amazon.com/John-Bringas/dp/0803133626">different applications</a>, but that complicates recycling. So even if iron itself does not necessarily downcycle, steel alloys can: after multiple recycling and remanufacturing cycles, unless the proportions of the elements that make up an alloy are adjusted, it might no longer have the same characteristics as the original steel or, more likely, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jiec.12439">no longer be as useful or valuable when compared to newer alloys</a>.</p>
<p>Recycling and remanufacturing steel do help <a href="https://www.worldsteel.org/publications/bookshop/product-details%7ESteel--%20-the-permanent-material-in-the-circular-economy%7EPRODUCT%7ESteel-permanent-circular-economy%7E.html">reduce the need for natural resources</a>). Unfortunately, though, much of the metal recovered from our cars, phones and refrigerators, as well as from tools and machinery, is more likely to end up as steel scrap available for sale than actually going back to their own supply chains. Such scrap can end up being bought for recycling or remanufacturing by either completely different steelmakers from those who originally produced it or by those <a href="https://www.euric-aisbl.eu/facts-figures/statistics/download/231/63/32">outside of European borders</a>.</p>
<h2>How the circular becomes linear</h2>
<p>Because an increasing amount of <a href="https://bir.org/publications/brochures/">steel scrap is leaving Europe</a>, its composition receives less attention – the goal is to supply developing nations as quickly as possible with alloys that are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344912002078">less complex and more bulk-oriented</a>. Not all steel needs to go back to its origin for circularity to take place and be useful, but the less attention we give to how steel circulates, the less environmental benefits we accrue from the secondary metals market. </p>
<p>Together, these developments have effectively created a circularity paradox: the solution we thought would increase circularity has became another linear operation of its own. By using linear solutions to approach circular goals, we are not actually changing the mindset of standard industrial operations. Instead, we are just pushing it further down the line. Consequently, the benefits of using recycling, refurbishing and remanufacturing to close loops in supply chains and reduce the need for mining iron ore are no longer as evident as we had hoped. Worse, all the effort put into making all those complex and high-added-value steel alloys ends up either downcycling or leaving Europe altogether.</p>
<p>But what if we kept better track of steel? During the development of the <a href="https://adaptecon.com/">AdaptEcon2</a> project <a href="http://www.theses.fr/en/2019CLFAD002">“Sustainable Resource Management in European Steel Supply Chains”</a>, we found out that the more integrated supply chains are, the easier it is to track the lifecycle of steel alloys and the elements that go into them. Higher levels of integration make it easier to bring steel back via reverse logistics without losing too much value. The more you do this, the less iron ore you need to mine and melt, and the longer the reserves of high-grade iron ore – which needs less energy to transform into steel – will last. And integrating supply chains does not necessarily mean having the <a href="https://environmentalsystemsresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40068-019-0144-2">different steps all within the same company</a>.</p>
<h2>Using steel steel more intelligently</h2>
<p>What happens on the manufacturing and consumption ends is also important. During our study, we were also able to reinforce the notion that steel’s share of emissions during its use phase can be reduced by:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/3/855">Focusing on public transportation</a> rather than using the same amount of steel to produce cars.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/3/855">Using steel in solar-energy infrastructure</a> rather than the same amount as part of a hydropower plants, for example.</p></li>
<li><p>Manufacturing appliances with energy-efficient steel, which use the same amount of iron but different alloying elements, so <a href="http://www.materialflows.eu/assets/Material_Flows_of_the_HA_Industry_LR.pdf">less electricity is required to operate them</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>What if we could stimulate the use of more renewable sources of electricity to help supply those steelmakers using electric furnaces? Although steelmaking is <a href="https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/Energy-efficiency-steel-sector-1.pdf">highly energy intensive</a>, the more renewables are a part of supplying that energy, the lower will be the emissions footprint of both the steel being produced as well as of the renewable energy hardware that contains this steel. While a complete shift to renewables is unlikely for this sector, this would create a <a href="https://environmentalsystemsresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40068-019-0144-2">reinforcing feedback loop that favors both sectors in the long-term</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298353/original/file-20191023-119414-1xkwflm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298353/original/file-20191023-119414-1xkwflm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298353/original/file-20191023-119414-1xkwflm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298353/original/file-20191023-119414-1xkwflm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298353/original/file-20191023-119414-1xkwflm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298353/original/file-20191023-119414-1xkwflm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298353/original/file-20191023-119414-1xkwflm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298353/original/file-20191023-119414-1xkwflm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">European steel today (a) and vision for 2050 (b).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EUROFER</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By far the most interesting result of the project was that added value, circularity and service life are much more closely related than we had expected. In other words, the more a steelmaker adds value to a steel alloy, the better it is for the steelmaker not only to make sure it comes back home at the end of its life, but also that this steel alloy can remain circulating over and over for as long as possible. And the key to making it happen resides in resource ownership.</p>
<p>On the good side, Europe has been putting a lot of effort on <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/circular-economy/implementation_report.pdf">promoting circularity</a>, especially in the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/circular-economy/pdf/sustainable_products_circular_economy.pdf">end-of-life phase of products</a>). And finding a balance between bulk and speciality alloys is something that the steel industry already does very well for their own competitive interests. But when it comes to service life of manufactured goods, we still live in the age of programmed and planned obsolescence. And although end-of-life circularity helps mitigate some of the effects of these intentionally shortened service lives, the core issue remains unanswered: how to make materials circulate for longer?</p>
<h2>Thinking strategically</h2>
<p>What is required is to show steelmakers that there’s a lot of value that they can retain by focusing on resource ownership. We need to help ensure that steel comes back to the supply chain in which it was produced, so that we can accrue value from the same steel product, over and over.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298352/original/file-20191023-119438-1hn0xul.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298352/original/file-20191023-119438-1hn0xul.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298352/original/file-20191023-119438-1hn0xul.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298352/original/file-20191023-119438-1hn0xul.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298352/original/file-20191023-119438-1hn0xul.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298352/original/file-20191023-119438-1hn0xul.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298352/original/file-20191023-119438-1hn0xul.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298352/original/file-20191023-119438-1hn0xul.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The steel supply chain as seen by the Circular Economy Framework.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ellen McArthur Foundation</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Thankfully, the technologies and applications of Industry 4.0 are already out there. Tools such as RFIDs, GPS tagging, QR codes, the Internet of Things (IoT) and machine learning are becoming commonplace in manufacturing and assembly. There is also a lot that we can learn from the service sector when it comes to business models that benefit from different ownership modes. So why not give more attention to the extraction and transformation steps using these tools? To address the service life and resource ownership issue that could help us improve circularity, we need to take two important steps: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Develop markers capable of withstanding the whole life cycle of a steel product, repeatedly.</p></li>
<li><p>Create a business model capable of keeping track and managing the comings and goings of these materials and goods, borrowing ideas from servitisation.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The key is to show stakeholders that it is worthwhile to develop alloys that last longer because no matter how far it travels, it will always come home. Home where their composition is known and where the machinery is suited to adjust its alloying characteristics so it remains useful and competitive for longer. Home, where it can be fed back into the supply chain that is already prepared to receive it and work with it once again. Home where the costs are lower.</p>
<p>Despite European efforts in end-of-life circularity, we believe more needs to be done upstream, right where most of the environmental impacts are born. Bringing the responsibility of circularity back to extraction and transformation might not only be cost-effective, but actually make materials circularity-ready from the very moment they leave nature, combating the paradox that brought us back to the linear mindset.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The author has received funding from the European Commission's Horizon 2020 Programme via a Marie Curie Fellowship on Excellent Research (grant agreement 675153). He is a member of the International Society for Industrial Ecology and a Board Member of the Jean Monnet Excellence Center on Sustainable Development.</span></em></p>Europe recycles 70% of its steel, but much is exported, turning what should be a circular process into a linear one. Instead, materials need to be circularity-ready the moment they’re manufactured.Julian Torres de Miranda Pinto, Research Engineer in Sustainable Resource Management, Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1041662018-10-08T12:38:11Z2018-10-08T12:38:11ZAfrica can get more from its minerals by building industries to service mines<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239478/original/file-20181005-72113-1fypkga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Aaron Ufumeli</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Multinational firms from Europe, North America and more recently China still <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Companies/Mining/africa-needs-to-extract-more-value-from-mining-20180330">dominate the extraction</a> and refining of most of minerals mined in Africa with minimal roles for African firms. From these minerals, foreign manufacturing firms produce consumer and industrial goods for sale in global markets at much higher prices than what’s paid for the raw materials. This is a source of lots of <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-bets-are-off-as-magufulis-resource-nationalism-moves-up-a-gear-in-tanzania-81632">angst</a> among policymakers and economists who are calling for increased local participation in the mining industry.</p>
<p>African governments are routinely advised to add value to their own natural resources to drive economic development. This is presented as a way of getting a slice of the huge returns enjoyed by others at the expense of countries in which the minerals are mined. This seemingly obvious reasoning is the basis of a growing policy focus on mineral beneficiation which involves improving the economic value of a mineral by turning it into a final or intermediate product. </p>
<p>The argument sounds logical. But accessing the rewards of this approach isn’t that simple. Those in favour of beneficiation tend to ignore the complexity of industry and markets of beneficiated products and the rules and regulations of supply chains. Most products, components and operations of the beneficiation industry and markets are currently alien to many African economies. </p>
<p>This means that, for the moment, beneficiation remains out of reach. </p>
<p>Take the case of steel. To use steel to manufacture washing machines for global markets, a country would need to either establish its own brands and outcompete established ones, such as Samsung, Defy and Hisense, or, alternatively, supply these popular producers with components. In Africa, this is unlikely to happen immediately because of
small markets and brand loyalty among other challenges.</p>
<p>This is not to say that adding value to mineral resources shouldn’t be part of the agenda for African countries. But the focus should be elsewhere – the production of input goods like machinery, spares and services that support processes that precede beneficiation – exploration, mine construction and extraction itself. These are known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-africa-can-learn-from-chinas-special-economic-zones-51517">backward linkage</a> industries and are ready for picking. This <a href="http://ccsi.columbia.edu/files/2016/07/Linkages-to-the-resource-sector-GIZ-CCSI-2016.pdf.pdf">approach</a> served countries such as the US and Norway where they gave rise to globally competitive manufacturing and services industries serving the mining and oil industries. </p>
<h2>What’s missing in Africa</h2>
<p>A critical hurdle to Africa developing a strong industrial base – a prerequisite for any beneficiation – is the <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Companies/Mining/africa-needs-to-extract-more-value-from-mining-20180330">dominance</a> of China and other Asian countries in the labour intensive manufacturing sector. </p>
<p>So why can’t African countries simply emulate China? </p>
<p>A number of factors aided China in its industrialisation drive. Firstly, China is one country with a huge unified market that can produce and consume its own manufacturing output in addition to exporting the same goods. </p>
<p>Africa, for its part, is a continent made up of many countries. This market is fragmented which limits inter and intra country production.</p>
<p>Secondly, China has invested heavily in human capital and well as hard infrastructure such as bridges and roads. All these factors are critical for any major industrialisation drive – and beneficiation – but are lacking in the majority of African countries. </p>
<h2>Refocusing</h2>
<p>A greater focus on the production of input goods could yield better results. This is because it offers an easier development path that’s within technical grasp of many African countries. </p>
<p>The scale of Africa’s mining industry means that it has a ready made market for input goods and services. This includes the supply of heavy mining spares and consumables, contract mining as well as security and catering services.</p>
<p>It makes business sense to have the input goods and services of these activities close to where they are needed. Close proximity gives African companies an advantage over multinational mining firms. Even more critical, proximity reduces the need for the mining industry to hold huge inventories of imported spares and consumables – a nightmare for cash flow. </p>
<p>Industries developed to support mines isn’t alien to the continent. For example the supply of ball-mills that crush the ore-bearing rock in the ore processing plants is established in some Africa countries i.e. South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. This small start could be expanded, in both scope and magnitude relatively easily.</p>
<p>Recommending that African countries focus on the processes that precede mineral beneficiation isn’t hypothetical. The historical experiences of the US and Norway, for example, confirm the positive stimulus that these processes had for the overall industrialisation journeys of these countries. The two countries <a href="http://ccsi.columbia.edu/files/2016/07/Linkages-to-the-resource-sector-GIZ-CCSI-2016.pdf.pdf">transformed</a> within 30 years to be leading suppliers of mining inputs that include mine dump trucks and drill rigs. </p>
<p>African states can follow the same strategy, with the necessary adjustments, and harvest the low hanging fruits of resource endowment, leap-frogging to achieve the same over a shorter period.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vuyo Mjimba has done World Bank sponsored research for the Oxford Policy Management from the United Kingdom. I have also researched under the Exxaro Chair at the University of South Africa</span></em></p>African economies could benefit more from backward linkages to the mining industry than from beneficiation.Vuyo Mjimba, Chief Research Specialist, Human Sciences Research CouncilLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1007122018-09-18T10:48:38Z2018-09-18T10:48:38ZTrump should wage a war on waste instead of battling the world over trade<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236767/original/file-20180917-158213-63ervb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Instead of fighting other countries, we should be fighting our overflowing landfills.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/truck-working-landfill-birds-looking-food-169420184?src=tBJTZucNQ5HHgAxz1sDUug-1-14">Huguette Roe/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump is fighting the wrong fight in his ongoing <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/trade-wars-50746">trade war</a> with the rest of the world. </p>
<p>That’s because it’s premised on the old-school notion of the linear economy in which someone in another country, such as China, digs up raw materials and sends them to a factory, where they get turned into the finished product and shipped to the U.S. In exchange, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/03/trump-hates-trade-deficit-its-track-be-biggest-decade/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.83c540dd4382">money leaves the U.S. economy</a> and flows to the countries where the product was made – creating the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/05/us/politics/trade-deficit-tariffs-economists-trump.html">trade deficit Trump despises</a>.</p>
<p>And here’s the important bit. Americans use the product for a while, throw it away, and it ends up in a dump. And then we buy another import. </p>
<p>The long-term effect? Our money goes to a foreign economy, and Americans end up with piles of garbage. Then we pay <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=2ahUKEwi76bT9hLvdAhVyc98KHbDWB7sQFjABegQIBRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.omicsonline.org%2Fopen-access%2Feffects-of-electronic-waste-on-developing-countries-2475-7675-1000128.php%3Faid%3D88750&usg=AOvVaw3M_1XDBboG9MhanJSttUSG">a foreign economy one more time to take the garbage off our hands</a>. China is one country that used to take a lot of our garbage, but <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115011855">India, Pakistan and Nigeria</a> are also big in this business. </p>
<p>A circular economy, by contrast, starts with the finished product, which can then be recycled domestically and reused, often at <a href="http://circularfoundation.org/sites/default/files/tce_report1_2012.pdf">a fraction of the cost of manufacturing them new elsewhere</a>. This <a href="http://circularfoundation.org/sites/default/files/tce_report1_2012.pdf">keeps the money at home</a>, which produces more domestic jobs and wealth. </p>
<p>As a researcher of corporate social responsibility, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66023-3_178">I’ve been exploring</a> whether consumers are willing to buy more goods that have been remanufactured. My research suggests the answer is yes – if companies can figure how to produce more of them. And that’s where Trump and the federal government could play a big role. </p>
<h2>Companies leading the charge</h2>
<p>For now, companies and others in the American private sector are trying to lead the way, such as construction and mining equipment maker Caterpillar and automaker General Motors.</p>
<p>Caterpillar, for example, currently <a href="https://www.rit.edu/research/sites/rit.edu.research/files/research-magazines/RIT-Research-Magazine-Spring-Summer-2018.pdf">remanufactures 85 million tons</a> of material a year, while GM has 142 manufacturing and other facilities <a href="http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2018/feb/0228-landfill-free.html">that don’t produce any garbage</a> by recycling, reusing or converting all waste to energy. GM also participates in a new <a href="https://pathway21.com/about-2/">online exchange</a> that has about 1,000 partner companies buying and selling their recycled waste as raw material. </p>
<p>The nonprofit sector has also been playing a role, both in terms of research and practical efforts. Since 1991, the <a href="https://www.rit.edu/gis/remanufacturing/">Center for Remanufacturing and Resource Recovery</a> at my own Rochester Institute of Technology in upstate New York, for example, has been working with organizations such as the U.S. Marines Corps and Staples to take advantage of circular economy principles. </p>
<p>The center helped the Marines <a href="https://www.rit.edu/research/sites/rit.edu.research/files/research-magazines/RIT-Research-Magazine-Spring-Summer-2018.pdf">remanufacture defective drive shafts</a> for light armored vehicles, which has saved the military force 78 percent versus the cost of buying them new. It also partnered with Staples to cut the use of non-recycled materials in office furniture by almost 90 percent while reducing the cost to the customer by over 40 percent. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236766/original/file-20180917-158228-1acaf2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236766/original/file-20180917-158228-1acaf2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236766/original/file-20180917-158228-1acaf2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236766/original/file-20180917-158228-1acaf2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236766/original/file-20180917-158228-1acaf2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236766/original/file-20180917-158228-1acaf2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236766/original/file-20180917-158228-1acaf2r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U.S. could reuse more of their plastics, like Kenya did when they sailed the first dhow boat made entirely of recycled plastic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&VBID=2C0FCIB6AB2MS&SMLS=1&RW=1264&RH=744&POPUPPN=6&POPUPIID=2C0FQEQ5SKOCG">Reuters/Baz Ratner</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Benefits of circular logic</h2>
<p>The benefits can add up quickly. </p>
<p>General Motors, for example <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/materials-matchmaking-how-gm-drives-1-billion-annual-revenue">boasts revenue and savings</a> of US$1 billion a year from its circular economy initiatives. </p>
<p>That’s just one company. Scaling up could yield over <a href="http://thebusinessleadership.academy/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Circular_economy.pdf">$1 trillion a year</a> in savings globally – and that’s just in terms of mining and processing fewer raw materials. More broadly, were the European Union, for example, to replace all its imports with locally reused or recycled alternatives, it alone <a href="http://circularfoundation.org/sites/default/files/tce_report1_2012.pdf">could generate</a> $300 billion to $600 billion a year in savings, according to a 2012 report by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, a U.K. charity focused on promoting the transition to a circular economy. </p>
<p>Remanufacturing in the U.S. is already responsible for <a href="https://www.rit.edu/gis/remanroadmap/docs/Technology%20roadmap%20for%20remanufacturing%20in%20the%20circular%20economy.pdf">180,000 jobs across sectors</a> as diverse as aerospace, consumer products, office furniture and retreaded tires. Given how much the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services">U.S. currently imports from abroad</a> – and that remanufacturing is still less than 2 percent of total manufacturing in the U.S. – there’s room to create hundreds of thousands more jobs. </p>
<h2>How Trump could help</h2>
<p>While there are many ways the U.S. government could marshal its tremendous resources behind this effort, there are two in particular I think would pay dividends. </p>
<p>Both revolve around a core problem in remanufacturing: Most things we currently make <a href="https://www.rit.edu/gis/remanroadmap/docs/Technology%20roadmap%20for%20remanufacturing%20in%20the%20circular%20economy.pdf">can’t be remanufactured</a>. That’s partly because of social barriers — customers may confuse remanufactured with used, which is a very different thing — and partly because they’re not made to be remanufactured.</p>
<p>Plastics in particular pose a significant problem to moving toward a circular economy. Globally, <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700782">we only recycle or reuse</a> about 9 percent of the plastic produced each year, with 79 percent going to landfills and 12 percent being burned. </p>
<p>Trump could support two ways to help solve this problem. Basically, with a carrot and a stick. The carrot involves setting a standard of design to ensure all products are made with future use in mind, as well as using his influence to encourage Americans to buy goods remanufactured in the U.S.</p>
<p>The stick is tax policy. Specifically, the government could tax products that can’t be converted into raw materials after they are used, as well as those that are made with less than a certain percentage of reused components – a minimum that would be set to gradually increase. Money raised through this tax could be used to support research into remanufacturing, community efforts to reach higher recycling and reuse targets, or other purposes.</p>
<h2>Remanufacturing for the win</h2>
<p>Some countries are already reducing their imports by going circular, putting the United States at risk of falling behind.</p>
<p>China, for one, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12597">has been systematically expanding</a> its efforts in this area for over 20 years, while the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12597">EU is beginning</a> to invest in a circular economy as well with a formal action plan, <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52015DC0614">most recently revised in 2015</a>.</p>
<p>In an entirely circular economy, the U.S. would most likely still import stuff from abroad, such as steel from China. But that steel would wind up being <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/materials-matchmaking-how-gm-drives-1-billion-annual-revenue">reused in American factories</a>, employing tax-paying American workers to manufacture new goods. </p>
<p>In other words, the more circular Americans make their economy, the fewer products they’ll wind up importing and the more things that could bear the “Made in the USA” label.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clyde Hull is a Professor of Management at the Saunders College of Business at RIT. He is also an associate faculty member of RIT’s Golisano Institute for Sustainabilty, which includes the Center for Remanufacturing and Resource Recovery. He is not involved in the Center’s operations.</span></em></p>Trump’s plan to slap $200 billion more in tariffs on Chinese goods is premised on yesterday’s waste-fueled economy. Tomorrow’s economy is ‘circular.’Clyde Eiríkur Hull, Professor of Management, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/967452018-05-21T16:34:53Z2018-05-21T16:34:53ZThe hidden carbon cost of everyday products<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219749/original/file-20180521-14965-7bsqjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrey N Bannov / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The targets set in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/02/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-paris-climate-summit-and-un-talks">Paris Agreement</a> on climate change are ambitious but necessary. Failure to meet them will lead to widespread drought, disease and desperation <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/12/climate/kenya-drought.html">in some of the world’s poorest regions</a>. Under such conditions <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/03/19/climate-change-could-force-over-140-million-to-migrate-within-countries-by-2050-world-bank-report">mass migration by stranded climate refugees is almost inevitable</a>.</p>
<p>Yet if richer nations are to be serious in their commitment to the Paris target, then they must begin to account for the carbon emissions <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1371">contained within products they import</a>.</p>
<p>Heavy industry and the constant demand for consumer goods are key contributors to climate change. In fact, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter10.pdf">30% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a> are produced through the process of converting metal ores and fossil fuels into the cars, washing machines and electronic devices that help prop up the economy and make life a little more comfortable.</p>
<p>As one might expect, the wealthier parts of the world with their higher purchasing power do more than their fair share of consuming and polluting. For every item bought or sold there is a rise in GDP, and with each 1% increase in GDP there is a corresponding <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015000746?via%3Dihub">0.5 to 0.7%</a> rise in carbon emissions. The growing demand for day-to-day conveniences exacerbates this problem. For metal ores alone, the extraction rate more than <a href="http://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/MATERIAL%20RESOURCES,%20PRODUCTIVITY%20AND%20THE%20ENVIRONMENT_key%20findings.pdf">doubled between 1980 and 2008</a>, and it shows no sign of slowing.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219751/original/file-20180521-14974-fnvjfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219751/original/file-20180521-14974-fnvjfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219751/original/file-20180521-14974-fnvjfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219751/original/file-20180521-14974-fnvjfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219751/original/file-20180521-14974-fnvjfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219751/original/file-20180521-14974-fnvjfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219751/original/file-20180521-14974-fnvjfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219751/original/file-20180521-14974-fnvjfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Steel, plastic, aluminium – and platinum.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">xieyuliang/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Every time you buy a new car, for instance, you effectively mine <a href="https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/platinum-investing/uses-of-platinum-metals-in-the-changing-automobile-industry/">3-7g</a> of “platinum group metals” to coat the catalytic converter. The six elements in the platinum group have the greatest environmental impact of all metals, and producing just one kilo requires the emission of <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0101298">thousands of kilos of CO₂</a>. </p>
<p>That car also consumes one tonne of steel and you can add to that some aluminium, a whole host of plastics and, in the case of electric cars, rare earth elements. </p>
<p>Often, no one is held accountable for the carbon emissions connected to these materials, because they are produced in countries where “dirty” industry is still politically acceptable or seen as the only way to escape poverty. In fact, of the carbon emissions that European consumers are personally responsible for, around <a href="https://www.biogeosciences.net/9/3247/2012/bg-9-3247-2012.pdf">22%</a> are allocated elsewhere under conventional carbon accounting practices. For consumers in the US, the figure is around 15%.</p>
<h2>From mine to dump</h2>
<p>Carbon emissions from the exhaust pipe tell only part of the story. To get a full sense of the carbon footprint of a car, you have to consider those emissions that go into producing the raw materials and digging a hole in the ground twice – once to extract the metals contained in the car, once to dump them when they can no longer be recycled. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219755/original/file-20180521-14981-1tim3jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219755/original/file-20180521-14981-1tim3jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219755/original/file-20180521-14981-1tim3jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=222&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219755/original/file-20180521-14981-1tim3jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=222&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219755/original/file-20180521-14981-1tim3jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=222&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219755/original/file-20180521-14981-1tim3jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219755/original/file-20180521-14981-1tim3jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219755/original/file-20180521-14981-1tim3jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All part of a car’s lifecycle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Csaba Peterdi/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Buying a new car and dumping the old one might be justifiable if the change was made because the new vehicle is more fuel efficient, but it is certainly not when it’s a question of personal taste or corporate-level <a href="https://auto.howstuffworks.com/under-the-hood/car-part-longevity/cars-designed-to-fail.htm">planned obsolescence</a>. The same is true for any number of high tech items, including smartphones that run on software that <a href="http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160612-heres-the-truth-about-the-planned-obsolescence-of-tech">renders them unusable</a> in the medium term. The environmental consequences of replacing a smartphone, in terms of carbon emissions alone, are considerable. Apple found that <a href="https://images.apple.com/environment/pdf/products/iphone/iPhone_X_PER_sept2017.pdf">83%</a> of the carbon dioxide associated with the iPhone X was directly linked to manufacture, shipping and recycling. With these kinds of figures, it is hard to argue a sustainable case for upgrades – regardless of how many solar panels Apple sticks on the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/apple-renewable-energy-green-suppliers-uk-us-store-office-headquarters-park-campus-a8296751.html">roof of its offices</a>.</p>
<p>Governments of richer countries that import products but not their emissions must stop pointing the finger at China or other manufacturing or mining giants and start taking responsibility. This means going further than they have been willing to go so far, and implementing sustainable material strategies that address a product’s <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/9/1508/htm">entire lifecycle</a> from mining to manufacturing, use, and eventually to disposal. </p>
<p>On an individual level people must vote with their money. It’s time to leave behind the laggards who hide the cost of the carbon contained within their products and who design them to fail in order to put profits before people and the environment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96745/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kai Whiting receives funding from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) and MIT Portugal Program through the grant PD/BP/113742/2015. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis Gabriel Carmona receives funding from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) and MIT Portugal Program through the grant PD/BD/128038/2016. </span></em></p>Richer countries import products but not the emissions used to make them.Kai Whiting, Sustainability and Stoicism Researcher, Universidade de Lisboa Gabriel Carmona Aparicio, Researcher in Sustainable Systems, Universidade de Lisboa Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/905672018-01-24T23:34:11Z2018-01-24T23:34:11ZWhat Donald Trump could learn from the Bush administration’s 2002 steel tariffs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203067/original/file-20180123-182945-ziodgg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">US President Donald Trump in 2017 and George W. Bush in 2008. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">White House/Wikipedia</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On March 1, 2018, US President Donald Trump announced his decision to impose tariffs on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/01/business/trump-tariffs.html">imported steel and aluminum</a>. The decision comes on the heels of a <a href="https://www.commerce.gov/sites/commerce.gov/files/the_effect_of_imports_of_steel_on_the_national_security_-_with_redactions_-_20180111.pdf">report from the Commerce Department</a> released last month that concluded that such imports threaten national security. In response to the announcement, US stocks prices fell, in particular those of automobile and aeronautic manufacturers – all heavy users of metals. Trump defended the measure on Twitter, saying that <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/969525362580484098?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2018%2F03%2F01%2Fbusiness%2Ftrump-tariffs.html">“trade wars are good”</a>.</p>
<p>While the longer-term impact of such protectionist measures are difficult to predict, much can be learned from similar cases. In a <a href="http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/fr/publications/pb/abstract.asp?NoDoc=10617">report drafted for the European Parliament</a>, we review one such (well-known) protectionist episode, the global “safeguard measure” enacted by US President George W. Bush in 2002. Tariffs ranging from 8% to 30% were imposed on a wide range of steel products for a three-year period, starting on March 20 of that year. </p>
<p>Our research found that any claimed protection was dwarfed by unintended consequences: The measures destroyed employment in the US steel industry, fostered outsourcing overseas and hurt downstream industries. This case illustrates the consequences of using trade-defense instruments to pursue protectionist purposes. And while the official justification was allegedly unfair trade practices, the real motivation was clearly to secure the political support in steel-producing “swing states”.</p>
<h2>What can be learned</h2>
<p>This case is particularly informative about the potential consequences of Trump’s decision. To better understand this, let’s start with the impact on trade. </p>
<p>A detailed analysis of Bush’s steel tariff shows that the trade impact was very heterogeneous across products and countries, reflecting the numerous exclusions from the measure. US imports of steel products from countries on which the measure was applied plummeted, falling by 28% on average in 2002 and by a further 37% in 2003 (<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11151-013-9382-z">Bown, 2013, Table 5</a>). Even products not covered by the measure were significantly affected in 2002. Meanwhile, imports of steel products from countries excluded from the safeguard increased strongly. For example, in 2002 they rose 40% for preferential agreement trading partners, and over 2002-2003 they climbed 28% from exempted developing countries. Furthermore, imports of non-safeguarded product categories increased. Overall, there was a 3% increase in US steel imports in the 12 months following the safeguard. Trade diversion – not import reduction – was the main effect on trade flows.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203069/original/file-20180123-182951-1ytod8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/203069/original/file-20180123-182951-1ytod8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203069/original/file-20180123-182951-1ytod8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203069/original/file-20180123-182951-1ytod8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203069/original/file-20180123-182951-1ytod8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203069/original/file-20180123-182951-1ytod8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/203069/original/file-20180123-182951-1ytod8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Economic data show no clear sign of a significant employment impact by the Bush-era ‘steel safeguards’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/en/steel-materials-raw-channel-metal-2839316/">Pixabay</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The impact on jobs is more difficult to assert, because the safeguard was decided against the background of a severe cyclical downturn in the steel industry, combined with a structural declining trend as a share of manufacturing. Monthly statistics show that the decline in the 12 months following the safeguard (-4.9%), was slower than in the 12 months before (-13.8%). Since the same pattern is also found for manufacturing as a whole (although less pronounced), there is no clear sign of a significant employment impact. The steel industry went through significant restructuring and consolidation in the period following the safeguard implementation, but the most detailed analysis available does not establish a direct link between this trend and the measures (<a href="https://permanent.access.gpo.gov/LPS40395/usitc/www.usitc.gov/publications/safeguards/3632/3632.htm">United States International Trade Commission, 2003</a>).</p>
<h2>Downstream impacts</h2>
<p>In assessing the broader impact of protection, this example is especially insightful because steel is an important input for many other industries. At the time the safeguard was decided, steel-using industries employed roughly 57 times more workers than the steel industry itself: 12.8 million compared to 170,000, respectively (<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=923839&rec=1&srcabs=698381&alg=7&pos=10">Liebman & Tomlin, 2007</a>). The price-increasing effect of protective measures is a major concern in such a situation, especially because most steel-using sectors are highly competitive, so that steel-using firms face difficulties is passing on price increases.</p>
<p>In practice, outcomes were heterogeneous across categories, but they exhibited strong price increases for important categories, with spot prices of steel sheets increasing by 40% or more in the four months following the safeguard, while producer price indices increased by 20% to 30% (although the initial increase was somewhat tempered later on; see USITC, 2003, Vol. III). According to one estimate, 200,000 jobs were lost in steel-using industries as a result of the safeguard, which is more than total employment in the steel industry itself at the same time (<a href="http://tradepartnership.com/reports/the-unintended-consequences-of-u-s-steel-import-tariffs-a-quantification-of-the-impact-during-2002-2003/">Francois & Baughman, 2003</a>).</p>
<p>The 2003 assessment carried out by the USITC, which includes a detailed firm survey, sheds light on these issues. In addition to price increases, it found that almost half of responding steel-using firms (and many more in some cases) reported difficulty in obtaining steel in the quality and quantity desired. 11% of all responding firms reported that they had shifted to sourcing finished parts from overseas as a result of the safeguard measures, and this proportion reached 16% in steel fabricators and motor vehicle parts sectors, 29% in furniture and hardware, and 50% in household appliances.</p>
<p>Asked if the safeguard measures led them to relocate US steel-consuming facilities abroad, 7% responded that it did; this share was significantly higher in some industries, 11% among motor vehicle parts makers, 12% among steel fabricators, 19% in furniture and hardware, and 33% in household appliances. On other words, the safeguard not only caused trade diversion, but also the threat of diversion of production abroad. This suggests that the indirect costs were disproportionately high compared to direct benefits. The central, model-based estimate of the USITC for the resulting impact was a real-income cost of $42 million, but this does not factor in the cost of indirect job losses, which could be far larger. Just for the period of February to November 2002, Francois and Baughman (2003) calculate that the safeguard had originated a wage loss worth $4 billion)</p>
<h2>Shares up, and down</h2>
<p>Another illustrative aspect of this safeguard is the impact on share prices. In accordance with the remarks above, shares of firms in steel-consuming industries experienced significant negative abnormal returns in response to the initiation of the safeguard investigation and the affirmative injury decision by the USITC. In contrast, stock prices of steel producers significant increased. Within days of initiation of the investigation, steel producers’ shares increased by 6% to 8% beyond what might have been expected otherwise. They increased further by 5 to 6% within days of the decision to impose the safeguard, while losing more or less the same proportion of their value when the negative ruling of the WTO panel was announced. (The estimates are drawn from Liebman and Tomlin, 2006.) All these impacts are consistent with the rent-seeking motivation of those filing for protection.</p>
<p>To complete the description of the unintended costs of the safeguard, we emphasise the importance of the WTO dispute. Losing such an important and widely commented case in a multilateral arena involved significant reputational costs for the US, especially as the ruling emphasised that the measure was in breach of the country’s commitments in several respects. The case was also illustrative of the potential importance of retaliatory measures. As soon as May 2002, the EU notified the WTO that it reserved its right to rebalance the adverse effect of the US steel safeguards. It subsequently issued a list of products concerned by these would-be measures, which encompassed a wide range of goods, from orange juice and apples to sunglasses, knitwear, motor boats or photocopying machines, representing a total $2.242 billion of US exports to the EU. The EU list was intended to respond to the political motivation by political targeting: it targeted products whose production is important in politically sensitive states. The result for the United States was that even the political benefit of the safeguard was quickly undermined.</p>
<p>The bottom line of George W. Bush’s 2002 steel tariffs is clear: share prices increased for the firms filing for protection, at the expenses of everyone else. While the impact of Donald Trump’s protectionist measures remain to be seen, the 2002 case provides important insight.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>On March 1, Donald Trump imposed a series of steel and aluminum tariffs. To understand their potential impact, it’s instructive to look at what happened after George W. Bush enacted similar measures in 2002.Sébastien Jean, Directeur, CEPIIAriell Reshef, Économiste, Directeur de recherche CNRS, Conseiller scientifique au CEPII, Membre associé, Paris School of Economics – École d'économie de ParisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/876722017-12-03T19:20:56Z2017-12-03T19:20:56ZWith the right tools, we can mine cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195144/original/file-20171117-15410-e7xyte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cities like Melbourne are a store for such huge amounts of resources that they could be used as urban mines. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AMelb_CBD.jpg">Donaldytong (own work)/Wikimedia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>From 1900 to 2010, the amount of materials accumulated in buildings and infrastructure across the world increased <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/8/1880.full">23-fold</a>. We are depleting our resources at <a href="http://uneplive.unep.org/">unprecedented rates</a>. Instead of extracting dwindling raw materials from nature at ever-increasing cost, the time has come to start re-using materials from buildings and infrastructure in our cities.</p>
<p>We have been working on identifying the material resources in cities that could be “mined” for re-use. In a case study, we modelled more than 13,000 buildings in central Melbourne, Australia. We estimated the quantities of construction materials as well as the embodied energy, water and greenhouse gas emissions associated with constructing these buildings (if they were built today). We also modelled the replacement of materials over time and into the future.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-20th-century-saw-a-23-fold-increase-in-natural-resources-used-for-building-73057">The 20th century saw a 23-fold increase in natural resources used for building</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>The extraction and transformation of resources have broad environmental effects. These include resource depletion, loss of biodiversity, soil and water pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions, which drive climate change. </p>
<p>Adding to these challenges is the amount of waste generated, especially by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cleaning-up-the-construction-industry-31">construction sector</a> due to construction, renovation and demolition activities. Every time a construction material is discarded, all the embodied energy, water and emissions that went into producing it also go to waste.</p>
<p>In our two <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2016.11.043">recent</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.09.022">studies</a>, we propose a model that can help us “mine” our cities and quantify the environmental benefits of this urban mining.</p>
<h2>Modelling all buildings in a city</h2>
<p>We used the City of Melbourne, representing the central business district and immediate surrounds, as a case study. This is because the City of Melbourne offers open-source and high-resolution data that allowed us to model the materials found in individual buildings.</p>
<p>By combining the <a href="http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/about-melbourne/research-and-statistics/city-economy/census-land-use-employment/Pages/clue.aspx">Census of Land Use and Employment database</a> with the <a href="https://data.melbourne.vic.gov.au/Property-Planning/Building-Footprints-2015/pv8y-ihee">Building Footprints database</a>, we had access to basic geometric and construction-related data for each of the 14,385 buildings in this area in 2015. Of these, we modelled 13,075, as some very small or unique buildings (stadiums, railway stations, etc.) had to be discarded. We used 48 building archetypes, based on the building type (e.g. office), construction year (e.g. 1987) and height (e.g. 25 metres), to represent the different buildings in the city. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More than 13,000 buildings were modelled in the City of Melbourne.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">André Stephan & Aristide Athanassiadis</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Results show that the City of Melbourne has a stock of 1.5 million tonnes of materials in every square kilometre. Just replacing worn materials to maintain this built stock is estimated to require 26 thousand tonnes of materials every year. </p>
<p>Rebuilding the City of Melbourne today would use about 10 petajoules of energy and 17.7 million cubic metres of water. The construction would emit 605,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases per square kilometre. </p>
<p>These resource requirements are simply huge. For instance, the energy used for every square kilometre built is enough to drive 700,000 cars from Melbourne to Sydney. Picture all the urban development around the world, then just try to imagine <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-cities-need-to-go-on-a-resource-diet-68984">all the resources required</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-cities-need-to-go-on-a-resource-diet-68984">Our cities need to go on a resource diet</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Aside from producing these overall estimates, the real value in our model lies in the detail it provides about the use of materials in the city. It can answer questions such as where and when construction materials are needed, and in what quantities. And what are the associated environmental effects?</p>
<h2>Visualising material flows</h2>
<p>For the 13,075 buildings modelled, we ended up with more than 500 million data points. We needed to come up with effective <a href="https://social.shorthand.com/SciDevNet/3geA2Kw4B5c/data-visualisation-contributions-to-evidence-based-decision-making">data visualisation</a> to inform decision-makers about how we can mine cities.</p>
<p>The most important result we found is depicted in a map showing the quantities of each material within each building. We are able to do that for any given year or period. This enables us to track which materials are expected to be replaced in what quantities and in what buildings.</p>
<p>These maps allow us to start thinking of cities as urban mines and places of material production (supply), rather than just consumption (demand). </p>
<p>We can imagine how a new construction project could survey what materials would be available at its start and how it can best re-use these and incorporate them into the design. This would save large amounts of energy and water, while avoiding greenhouse gas emissions and further ecosystem degradation from raw material extraction (usually far from the city).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Selected material stock (2015) and embodied energy of the City of Melbourne.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">André Stephan & Aristide Athanassiadis</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We borrowed the concept of the age pyramid from population studies to represent the material stock in the city’s buildings. This allows us to understand which materials stay in the stock and for how long. </p>
<p>It also helps us better anticipate when a significant amount of materials is expected to be replaced, resulting in construction waste and a demand for new materials. The maps show where this is going to take place.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An age pyramid represents the age and quantities of construction materials in the building stock, and helps to better appreciate periods of expected replacement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">André Stephan & Aristide Athanassiadis</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Long journey to a circular economy</h2>
<p>While we have produced tools that can help with urban mining, we are still far from a truly <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-circular-economy-29666">circular economy</a> for the construction sector.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-circular-economy-29666">Explainer: what is a circular economy?</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Firstly, our model suffers from a significant amount of uncertainty: it is only as good as the data we feed it. While the City of Melbourne has good-quality data for its buildings, we really struggle to estimate how long materials last, notably at the scale of a building. We need more research and data to better estimate the material composition of buildings, the periods of material replacements or building refurbishments, as well as the materials released and available for re-use.</p>
<p>Secondly, we need to better design our buildings for disassembly. A material that is being replaced is not directly re-usable in most cases due to wear or damage, possibly during demolition.</p>
<p>If we design and prefabricate modular buildings that can easily be disassembled, we can greatly improve the potential for re-use and recycling. This would help us move towards <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-a-truly-sustainable-world-we-need-zero-waste-cities-10552">zero-waste cities</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-a-truly-sustainable-world-we-need-zero-waste-cities-10552">For a truly sustainable world we need zero-waste cities</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>A third way forward is to rethink how construction materials and systems are designed and for what purpose. Instead of buying carpet for an office, a company could pay for the service “floor area covered by carpet”. This would shift ownership of the carpet to <a href="http://www.desso.fr/globalaccounts/regus/take-back%E2%84%A2-programme/">the supplier</a>.</p>
<p>In turn, that would create an incentive to produce durable, high-quality materials that could be re-used and recycled, instead of programmed obsolescence. Such business models are already starting to emerge.</p>
<p>With our growing global population, finite resources and climate change, we need to move fast towards a more circular construction sector to help ease the pressure on the Earth’s resources and ecosystems. Models such as the ones we are developing are a step forward on a long journey.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87672/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>André Stephan receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aristide Athanassiadis has received funding from the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS) and a Wallonia-Brussels International (WBI) excellence scholarship. He is a member of Metabolism of Cities.</span></em></p>With an ever-increasing cost to extract dwindling raw materials, it’s time to look at cities as urban mines. We’re developing the tools to do that.André Stephan, Lecturer in Architectural Engineering, The University of MelbourneAristide Athanassiadis, Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/726162017-03-02T15:10:18Z2017-03-02T15:10:18ZWhy Africa should be high on Donald Trump’s list of priorities<p>Amid all the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/18/trump-administration-chaos-white-house">confusion over Donald Trump’s presidency</a>, there are few clues about how his administration will approach the US’s relationship with Africa. The continent was rarely mentioned in the run-up to election day, and so far, Trump’s only foray into African politics has been a <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/13/africa/buhari-zuma-trump-call-africa/">pair of phone calls</a> – one to President Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria, and one to President Jacob Zuma of South Africa. </p>
<p>But an examination of Trump’s rhetoric, likely priorities, and the economic realities facing Africa, paints a bleak picture for the continent over the next four years. A large scale re-examination of economic and political allegiances may be on the cards.</p>
<p>Security will likely be the dominant issue during the Trump administration. “Eliminating” Islamic terrorism is apparently one of the cornerstones of his foreign policy. So with Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, and other groups operating throughout parts of the Africa, there are plenty of opportunities for close cooperation. </p>
<p>Indeed, security was the main topic touched upon in the phone calls to both African leaders. According to one of President Buhari’s aides, <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN15T0OL">Trump told</a> the Nigerian president that the US was willing to help Nigeria obtain “new military weapons to combat terrorism”. </p>
<p>The US’s presence on the continent is already highly militarised. The superpower has bases and security facilities spread across countries including Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Djibouti, Kenya, Niger and Uganda. But an increasingly militarised view of the continent may hasten the decline of US soft power, especially if combined with expected changes to American trade and aid policies.</p>
<p>African economies remain highly dependent on the extraction and export of natural resources such as gold, diamonds and other metals. But economic progress simply has not happened on a large enough scale throughout the continent. The apparent surge which led to talk in the media of “<a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21541015">Africa Rising</a>” was a combination of high commodity prices, debt relief programs and a glut of primary sector foreign investment. In fact, Africa’s position within the international labour market remains largely unchanged from the late colonial period.</p>
<p>The US’s main trade agreement on the continent, the “<a href="https://agoa.info/about-agoa.html">African Growth and Opportunity Act</a>” (AGOA), was designed to stimulate manufacturing growth by providing certain African entrepreneurs tariff free access to the US market. This two way trade is valued at approximately US$36 billion. </p>
<p>The AGOA supports approximately 120,000 export related jobs within the US and does not expire until 2025. However, <a href="http://africanbusinessmagazine.com/region/continental/agoa-benefitted-chinese-entrepreneurs-africans-says-mboweni/">recent evidence suggests</a> that foreign entrepreneurs, mostly of Chinese origin, have often been the main beneficiaries. Detractors contend that the AGOA has been used as a backdoor to get Chinese goods into the US. Despite these reports, it is important to note these manufacturing clusters provide employment opportunities for thousands of Africans and encourage technology and skills transfers which can boost local growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159126/original/image-20170302-14706-m9yn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159126/original/image-20170302-14706-m9yn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159126/original/image-20170302-14706-m9yn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159126/original/image-20170302-14706-m9yn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159126/original/image-20170302-14706-m9yn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159126/original/image-20170302-14706-m9yn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159126/original/image-20170302-14706-m9yn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">African gold.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The US contributes approximately US$8 billion worth of aid to the continent every year. This comes largely in the form of money spent on social services, poverty alleviation, health and education. While these are certainly worthy endeavours, this sort of assistance tends to only <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-obama-comes-the-big-challenge-for-africas-entrepreneurs-45383">deal with development indirectly</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, Africa is currently facing an enormous decline in spending on <a href="http://www.ey.com/gl/en/industries/government---public-sector/dynamics---collaborating-for-growth_addressing-africas-infrastructure-deficit">infrastructure</a>. Unfortunately, this is not an area ripe for US intervention. American multinational corporations do not typically consider large-scale African infrastructure projects to be profitable investments. </p>
<h2>Chinese power</h2>
<p>Chinese companies on the other hand, which take into consideration the benefits of political returns as well as profits, have undertaken a massive infrastructure building program throughout the continent. With current projects including railways in Nigeria and Kenya, and a dam in Ghana, China has been positioning itself as a major influence across Africa for decades. The Chinese Communist Party views the continent as a crucial region for China’s domestic development, providing vital resources as well as market access. </p>
<p>South Africa in particular has moved towards strong economic and political integration with China. The relationship between the two countries has been <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-olander/south-africa-love-affair-china_b_8107474.html">described by one commentator</a> as an “inexplicable love affair”. </p>
<p>If other nations start to see the opportunities that China sees, Africa may enjoy an escalation of competition for resources and market access. To compete with an increasingly visible and well-liked China, the US must supplement current policies designed to support the continent. Whether President Trump has an appetite for this remains to be seen. In the age of “America first”, we do not yet know where Africa will be ranked by the current resident of the White House.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72616/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ricardo Reboredo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The continent needs investment – and China has long been providing it.Ricardo Reboredo, PhD Candidate in Geography, Trinity College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/730572017-02-19T19:09:43Z2017-02-19T19:09:43ZThe 20th century saw a 23-fold increase in natural resources used for building<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157261/original/image-20170217-4269-onoi58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There has been a rapid increase in the amount of resources tied up in buildings.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The volume of natural resources used in buildings and transport infrastructure increased 23-fold between 1900 and 2010, according to <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/01/31/1613773114.full">our research</a>. Globally, there are now 800 billion tonnes of natural resource “stock” tied up in these constructions, two-thirds of it in industrialised nations alone.</p>
<p>This trend is set to continue. While industrialised countries have lost some momentum, emerging economies are growing rapidly, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/video/is-china-building-itself-into-a-crisis/E1020C70-8221-4288-9E61-AE7B4C0B7297.html">China especially</a>. If all countries were to catch up to the per capita level of the industrialised nations, this would quadruple the amount of natural resources tied up in the built environment. </p>
<p>In Australia, 70% of the buildings and infrastructure that will be used in 2050 have <a href="http://www.csiro.au/nationaloutlook/">not yet been built</a>. Constructing all of this will require a huge amount of natural resources and will severely impact the environment. </p>
<p>To avoid this, we need work to build more efficiently and waste less of our resources. Our buildings need to last longer and become the inputs of future construction projects at the end of their lifetime.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/i3Wlh/2/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="419"></iframe>
<h2>The impact of the expansion</h2>
<p>Continuing the massive expansion of natural resource consumption would not only require vast quantities of new raw materials, it would also result in considerable environmental impact. It would require massive changes in land use for quarrying sand and gravel, and more energy for extraction, transport and processing. And, if we do not change course, more raw material use now means more waste later. </p>
<p>All of this will be accompanied by a large rise in carbon dioxide emissions, making it much harder to achieve the climate goals agreed in <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/paris-2015">Paris</a>. Cement production alone, for example, is responsible <a href="http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/05/09/emissions-from-the-cement-industry/">for about 5%</a> of global carbon emissions.</p>
<h2>Building sustainability</h2>
<p>It is certainly possible to build more sustainably. This requires us to use natural resources more efficiently, reducing the amount of materials and emissions related to economic activities. One strategy for achieving this is to create a more <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-circular-economy-23298">circular economy</a>, which emphasises re-use and recycling. A circular economy turns consumption and production into a loop.</p>
<p>Currently, <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/01/31/1613773114.full">only 12%</a> of materials used for buildings and infrastructure come from recycling. In part, this is due to the fact that globally, four times more materials are used in building than are released as demolition waste. This has, of course, to do with the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/05/infrastructure-boom-threatens-worlds-last-wildernesses">scale and speed</a> at which some countries are building.</p>
<p>Yet the potential for recycling is very large. Buildings and infrastructure are ageing and in the next 20 years alone there could be as much as 270 billion tonnes of demolished material globally. This is equivalent to the volume accrued over the previous one hundred years. This material will either have to be disposed in landfill, at very high cost, or it could be reused.</p>
<p>As we noted, <a href="http://www.csiro.au/nationaloutlook/">70%</a> of the buildings and infrastructure that will be used in Australia in 2050 have not yet been built. This signals massive investment in new materials but also very large amounts of demolition waste from today’s infrastructure. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0oxD0/2/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="435"></iframe>
<h2>The opportunity</h2>
<p>There is a window of opportunity for more sustainable building if we decouple economic growth from increased use of natural resources. We can do this by improving quality and use of existing infrastructure and buildings, extending lifespans, using better design, and planning for recycle and reuse.</p>
<p>Better quality building materials and better design can extend the lifetime of buildings, resulting in lower maintenance costs and saving primary materials, energy and waste. Eco-industrial parks and industrial clusters as well as sharing of information about waste flows can establish new relationships among industries where the waste of one production process can become the input of another process. </p>
<p>This doesn’t just make environmental sense. There are potentially <a href="https://www.env.go.jp/press/files/jp/102839.pdf">large economic gains</a> to be had from more efficient use of resources. This includes increased employment, increased productivity and less need for government subsidies.</p>
<p>Achieving a transition to long lived buildings, infrastructure and products will require new business models and new skills. It depends on skilling and re-skilling existing and new workers in the construction and manufacturing industry. Some of these changes are not going to happen spontaneously but will benefit from well designed policy that rewards resource efficiency and sustainability.</p>
<p>But first, we need more information about stocks and flows of materials throughout the economy, to allow governments and business leaders to plan for the necessary innovation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73057/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heinz Schandl receives funding from United Nations Environment and the United Nations Commission for Regional Development (UNCRD). He is a member of the UN Environment International Resource Panel (IRP) and president elect of the International Society for Industrial Ecology (ISIE). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fridolin Krausmann receives funding from the Austrian Science Foundation and the European Commission research fund.</span></em></p>There will be huge environmental impact if we keep using raw materials as we did in the 20th century.Heinz Schandl, Senior Science Leader, CSIROFridolin Krausmann, Professor of Sustainable Resource Use, Alpen-Adria University KlagenfurtLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/717412017-02-02T09:35:32Z2017-02-02T09:35:32ZHow lithium mined from hot springs in Cornwall could boost Britain’s green tech<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155433/original/image-20170203-13989-10a4gn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The highly valuable element has been found on the Cornish coast.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/coastline-520989079">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cornwall, on England’s south coast, is best known these days for surfing and sandcastles. But for centuries it was world famous for its tin and copper mines. Now, a recent discovery could see a mining boom in the county once again – and the whole UK should benefit.</p>
<p>On January 19, the British company <a href="https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10205021">Cornish Lithium</a> entered into an agreement with Canada’s <a href="http://www.strongbowexploration.com/s/Home.asp">Strongbow Exploration</a> to explore and potentially develop lithium mining in Cornwall. This is just a first step and it may be years before any lithium comes on stream, but it’s worth taking a look ahead. </p>
<p>Lithium is a light and shiny silver metal with high conductivity which makes it ideal for use in products such as batteries. Since <a href="http://www.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsUK/whatsnew.html">lithium</a> has been the hottest commodity of the past year, a new domestic supply could help the UK become a global player in the burgeoning electric car market.</p>
<p>While most commodities faced price declines over the past few years, lithium has been on the rise. Until late 2015, it hung around the $6,000 per tonne mark but it has since surged due to a rise in demand. By mid 2016, the price had more than tripled to over <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/06/06/lithium-price-tesla-metal-future/">$20,000 per tonne</a>.</p>
<p>Demand for lithium is driven by the growth in electric vehicles and renewable energies, besides ongoing demand from ceramics and glass. The metal is a key ingredient in the <a href="https://www.nexeon.co.uk/about-li-ion-batteries/">Li-ion batteries</a> needed to run new electric vehicles and consumer gadgets such as mobile phones, laptops and cameras. Chinese megacities are also getting serious about electric bikes, scooters and vehicles to combat air pollution, and Tesla’s order books for the recently announced <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/model3">Model 3</a> are swelling.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154976/original/image-20170131-13243-189jvlg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154976/original/image-20170131-13243-189jvlg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154976/original/image-20170131-13243-189jvlg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154976/original/image-20170131-13243-189jvlg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154976/original/image-20170131-13243-189jvlg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154976/original/image-20170131-13243-189jvlg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/154976/original/image-20170131-13243-189jvlg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electric cars could be the main driver for increased lithium demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/power-supply-electric-car-charging-station-248681686?src=e1aN_kjVt26xMOfQE7W38Q-1-15">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Goldman Sachs expects <a href="http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/new-energy-landscape/low-carbon-economy/">20.5m electric vehicles to be sold</a> globally between now and 2025 – almost 10m more than it expected one year ago. The industry’s lithium consumption will increase fivefold. </p>
<p>Chemical companies that process raw materials for batteries will benefit, and so could the Cornish lithium miners, if they manage collaborations with such companies. However, the next few years are likely to be a preparation for this “take-off”, rather than a rapid scale up. </p>
<p>Things are more uncertain in the medium term – consumers may lack confidence in the next generation of electric vehicles, and car makers are likely to advertise more traditional models and lobby against new regulation until they are “ready-to-go”. Consequently, the lithium industry won’t enjoy much certainty – for now.</p>
<p>However, the outlook is promising – speakers at a <a href="http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/new-energy-landscape/low-carbon-economy/">Goldman Sachs low carbon event</a> stated that not even the changing US policy landscape under President Trump is likely to alter the core market forces driving the growth in electric vehicles. They forecast a transformative tech shift, with electric vehicles adding to the momentum in energy efficiency, solar PV and onshore wind. </p>
<p>But markets change fast and there is a huge risk of high-tech disruption and vulnerabilities as suppliers are manifold, often small, and conducive to risks of both finance and regulation. Changes in the supply chains will affect many automotive suppliers, the chemical and oil industries, and potentially the steel industry, too. With headwinds expected from China, Japan and other countries, companies will have to accelerate efforts to access these markets, and stretch out to new miners and suppliers across the world. But a robust industrial strategy across all these sectors should benefit Cornwall and the UK.</p>
<p>While lithium may be a crucial ingredient in these batteries, the good news is that it only makes up a small share (<a href="https://roskill.com/news/lithium-ion-batteries-market-development-impact-raw-materials/">around 3%</a>) of production costs. Even if prices continue to be volatile – a consequence of rapid development in risky regions and sectors – it shouldn’t affect batteries too much.</p>
<h2>Environmental considerations</h2>
<p>Lithium is usually extracted from brine (salty water) found in <a href="http://geography.about.com/od/waterandice/fl/Salt-Flats.htm">salt flats</a>. The process involves using large amounts of water and chemicals, with <a href="https://www.foeeurope.org/sites/default/files/publications/13_factsheet-lithium-gb.pdf">severe consequences</a> for these sensitive ecosystems. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155034/original/image-20170131-3244-l3jq3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155034/original/image-20170131-3244-l3jq3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155034/original/image-20170131-3244-l3jq3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155034/original/image-20170131-3244-l3jq3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155034/original/image-20170131-3244-l3jq3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155034/original/image-20170131-3244-l3jq3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155034/original/image-20170131-3244-l3jq3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155034/original/image-20170131-3244-l3jq3k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, the world’s largest salt flat, contains much of the planet’s lithium.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">dani3315 / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Miners in Cornwall hope to produce lithium from hot spring brines while using geothermal energy extracted from these springs, which could drive processing costs down.</p>
<p>But the project will not be without risks, including the possibility that radioactive <a href="http://www.ukradon.org/information">radon</a> could be released from granite. Also <a href="http://www.bestmag.co.uk/content/closed-loop-lithium-battery-recycling-still-not-economical">lithium recycling is not (yet) feasible</a>, but recovering other materials from batteries such as magnesium, mercury and zinc may well trigger recycling efforts. </p>
<p>Cornish Lithium must now begin the crucial task of getting local people and other stakeholders on board – what’s known as a <a href="http://socialicense.com/definition.html">social license to operate</a>. Cornwall already benefits from a thriving tourist industry. However, its centuries-long history as a mining region means it may well cope with the associated challenges. It has the potential to become a wellspring of new industrial activity, and Britain’s first lithium boom.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71741/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raimund Bleischwitz receives funding from the European Commission (Projects Minatura, Mica, Recreate, Inno4SD) and from ESRC (SINCERE project).</span></em></p>New lithium stores in Cornwall could give the UK a valuable domestic supply of the expensive commodity.Raimund Bleischwitz, Chair in Sustainable Global Resources, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/668312016-10-17T19:19:48Z2016-10-17T19:19:48ZSteel from old tyres and ceramics from nutshells – how industry can use our rubbish<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141732/original/image-20161014-3938-vm091s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Awaiting a more useful life?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ARe-tyred_-_geograph.org.uk_-_412903.jpg">Richard Webb/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If someone said “green manufacturing” to you, what comes to mind is probably environmentally friendly products – solar panels, bamboo garments and the like. But there’s much more in this space. In fact, far greater environmental and economic impact can be achieved by looking further up the manufacturing chain. </p>
<p>There is huge potential in rethinking the energy and raw materials that go into our favourite and essential goods. </p>
<p>What I am talking about here is waste. What if we could turn rubbish into an input? Instead of viewing waste as a growing global burden, we could “mine” the world’s landfills – by using old tyres to make steel, for instance.</p>
<h2>We’ve got a huge problem with waste</h2>
<p>Globally, waste is becoming a huge problem. There has been an eightfold increase in materials consumed over the past century. There are several reasons for this: rapid industrialisation across Asia and other developing nations; the shortening of product replacement cycles; and the dramatic fall in the prices of consumer goods and an accompanying rise of consumer cultures.</p>
<p>The world’s three billion urban dwellers generate an average of 1.2kg of solid waste per person per day, according to the <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTURBANDEVELOPMENT/Resources/336387-1334852610766/What_a_Waste2012_Final.pdf">World Bank</a>. Without innovation, landfills around the world will become increasingly clogged, exacerbating the loss of potentially valuable secondary resources and risking environmental contamination.</p>
<p>So let’s view this increase in waste as an opportunity. Around the world, the cost of raw materials are on the rise. Rethinking waste might help us solve both problems at once.</p>
<h2>Rethinking waste</h2>
<p>Our waste streams are becoming increasingly complex – mixed plastics, e-waste and auto waste, for example. As such, a lot of it simply cannot be recycled using <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recycling">conventional approaches</a> like sorting through rubbish to extract glass and then recycling that into more glass. This phenomenon is another reason why our landfills are filling up. </p>
<p>But with new approaches we can overcome this. We can look at waste at the elemental level. The world’s waste mountains are packed with useful elements like carbon, hydrogen, silicon, titanium and other metals that we would otherwise have to source from virgin raw materials.</p>
<p>By identifying and processing these valuable elements, and redirecting them back into our industrial processes, we can simultaneously solve the problems of waste and the skyrocketing cost of inputs. </p>
<h2>Some examples of waste in action</h2>
<p>At <a href="http://smart.unsw.edu.au/">UNSW’s SMaRT Centre</a> we have been researching ways to reuse waste. So far we have achieved success in introducing waste polymers, mostly <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wMbdwfplBk">old tyres</a>, as slag foaming reagents in electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, a chemical reaction which is significantly important in EAF – just as in a cappuccino or a beer, the foam is crucial to a good-quality product. This process not only reuses a waste material, but improves energy efficiency, and reduces emissions and demand for non-renewable coking coal. </p>
<p>We have also recently published <a href="https://research.unsw.edu.au/people/scientia-professor-veena-sahajwalla/publications">results of our research</a> into the substitution of green petroleum coke with the waste shells of Australian macadamia nuts in the production of high-value silicon carbide and silicon nitride – super-hard ceramics that can be used for a range of applications from medical devices, to drilling tools, high-temperature engine linings for performance cars.</p>
<p>We discovered that macadamia shell waste, tens of thousands of tonnes of which are thrown away in Australia every year, is an excellent source of carbon with a very low ash content. This means less impurity, and hence cheaper costs for removing these impurities when replacing conventional coke. </p>
<h2>Into the future</h2>
<p>But it doesn’t end there. There is so much waste for which we have no answer yet. Every year tens of millions of vehicles are decommissioned, for example. While the metals that make up about 75% of a vehicle by weight can be readily and profitably recovered and recycled, the remaining plastics, glass, composites, complex materials and contaminants are mainly destined for landfill. For every car, some 100-200kg of complex and potentially toxic waste ends up as “automotive shredder residue” (ASR). </p>
<p>This poses a growing technical and environmental challenge worldwide, and represents a significant waste of finite resources. </p>
<p>We are investigating a range of transformations using <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167577X16305456">ASR</a>, including new pathways for creating alternative resources for the production of ceramic materials like silicon carbide and titanium nitride composites, produced using the silicon and titanium found in these residues. Instead of using conventional raw materials, like silica from quartz or carbon-bearing resources such as coke, waste automotive glass and plastic can be used. </p>
<p>This is just the start of reusing waste. There are still great advances to be made by combining these recovered resources with new modes of manufacturing. Imagine combining the ability to reform plastics with other new developments like 3D printers. In future we may use waste as an input that will enable us to locally print off something new, fully closing the materials loop.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66831/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Farshid Pahlevani receives funding from, Australian federal and local government and local councils as well as industrial funding.
Farshid Pahlevani are currently working in SMaRT Centre at UNSW which all these research are taking place</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Veena Sahajwalla is the director of SMaRT centre at UNSW which all these research are taking place.
She receives funding from Australian federal and local government and local councils as well as industrial funds for conducting research in various areas</span></em></p>The world’s landfills are growing, which has prompted the search for new industrial processes that can use everyday waste items in some surprising ways.Farshid Pahlevani, Senior Research Associate, UNSW SydneyVeena Sahajwalla, Professor and Director of the Centre for Sustainable Materials Research and Technology (SMaRT), UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/541072016-06-08T20:07:29Z2016-06-08T20:07:29ZCoal was king of the Industrial Revolution, but not always the path to a modern economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125318/original/image-20160606-26003-jg38tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coal powered the machinery and lit what English poet William Blake described as 'dark satanic mills'.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/11223807@N04/6475898683/">Sam Leighton/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>As the world moves to combat climate change, it’s increasingly doubtful that coal will continue to be a viable energy source, because of its high greenhouse gas emissions. But coal played a vital role in the Industrial Revolution and continues to fuel some of the world’s largest economies. This series looks at coal’s past, present and uncertain future, starting today with how it’s formed.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Coal was king of the British Industrial Revolution. As coke, it provided an efficient fuel for reliably turning iron ore into iron. </p>
<p>Cheap iron built the famous bridge across the River Severn at <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/371/gallery/">Ironbridge Gorge</a> in 1781. And the machinery that filled the new factories of the industrial age was built from it. </p>
<p>Coal then powered the machinery and lit what English poet William Blake (1757-1827) described as the “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/poetryseason/poems/jerusalem.shtml">dark satanic mills</a>” that revolutionised cotton manufacture. It powered <a href="http://www.powerhousemuseum.com/collection/database/?irn=7177&img=131713">James Watt’s double-acting piston engine</a>, whose reciprocating motion was converted into rotary motion by means of a crankshaft.</p>
<p>The resulting steamships and railway locomotives reduced the time and cost of bringing coal into factories and taking their products to British export markets across the globe. </p>
<p>Somewhat unexpectedly, the new forms of transport also generated exciting adventures for the British population – the mass seaside resort and the day return. Thus were <a href="https://www.thomascook.com/thomas-cook-history/">Thomas Cook</a> and the British tourism industry born.</p>
<h2>Spoils of coal</h2>
<p>Coal literally powered its way through the British economy of the 19th century – the so-called first industrial nation and workshop of the world. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125316/original/image-20160606-26003-16fcsie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125316/original/image-20160606-26003-16fcsie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125316/original/image-20160606-26003-16fcsie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125316/original/image-20160606-26003-16fcsie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125316/original/image-20160606-26003-16fcsie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125316/original/image-20160606-26003-16fcsie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125316/original/image-20160606-26003-16fcsie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal powered James Watt’s piston engine, whose reciprocating motion was converted into rotary motion by means of a crankshaft.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/8259447@N06/27175136812/">Herman Pijpers/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It even fuelled engines that drained water from deeper, less accessible coal mines to keep the supply coming. When steel superseded iron later in the century, coal remained a critical raw material. </p>
<p>Subsequent generations of locomotives and steamships improved transport productivity enormously, and gradually forced owners of stagecoaches, canal boats and sailing ships out of business. Then locomotives, rails, steamships and coal themselves joined the growing range of British exports as other countries sought to mimic the nation’s success. </p>
<p>Ironically, many ageing sailing ships were deployed to carry coal to refuel the growing network of coal bunkering stations around the oceans of the world, a trade that required low cost but no particular urgency. </p>
<p>Fast, reliable ocean liner services contributed to the first era of globalisation in the late 19th century, led by British steamship companies such as Cunard and P&O. They connected Britain across the Atlantic and eastwards, respectively. </p>
<p>Other countries followed suit, especially France, Belgium and Germany, which also had ample supplies of coal. While no one would deny the connection between coal and 19th-century industrialisation, why Britain was the first nation to modernise its economy by exploiting reserves remains highly contested.</p>
<h2>Why Britain?</h2>
<p>A <a href="http://books.wwnorton.com/books/The-Wealth-and-Poverty-of-Nations/">long-held view</a> is that the antecedents of British success can be traced back centuries during which the nation gradually built the preconditions for modern development. Growth-inducing institutions can take many forms, and include a stable political system and the development of commercial law. </p>
<p>The emphasis in Britain was on rising literacy levels and logical reasoning derived from movements that encouraged analytical thinking about the problems of the real world – the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_revolution">scientific revolution</a> and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Enlightenment">Age of Enlightenment</a>. </p>
<p>These “<a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7426.html">gifts of Athena</a>” (in the words of economic historian Joel Mokyr) facilitated critical and creative thinking about “useful knowledge” necessary to solve growth constraints. In modern parlance, here was the knowledge economy. </p>
<p>This “Eurocentric” view – so-called because it assumes that development in Britain (and Europe) was ahead of the rest of the world – has now been challenged. </p>
<p>In his epochal study, <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/6823.html">The Great Divergence</a>, US historian Kenneth Pomeranz used China as a point of comparison to reject the long-term antecedents of the “great divergence” between the economic development of Europe and the rest of the world. </p>
<p>Pomeranz argues that Britain and China had arrived at similar stages of development by the 18th century (“a world of surprising resemblances”, as he calls it) and that they reflected different, but equivalent, measures of progress. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125321/original/image-20160606-26007-13ahb61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125321/original/image-20160606-26007-13ahb61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125321/original/image-20160606-26007-13ahb61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125321/original/image-20160606-26007-13ahb61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125321/original/image-20160606-26007-13ahb61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125321/original/image-20160606-26007-13ahb61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125321/original/image-20160606-26007-13ahb61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Railway locomotives, along with steamships, reduced the time and cost of bringing coal into factories and taking their products to British export markets across the globe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/col233/7714715960/">Colleen Galvin/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The divergence was then born of differing abilities to confront an impending global ecological crisis: growing populations faced food and raw material shortages in a low-technology era.</p>
<p>Fortuitously, Britain had coal, conveniently located, and an empire in the New World with the space to produce primary commodities – timber, sugar, cotton and wheat – which, alongside coal, facilitated industrialisation. </p>
<p>Pomeranz concludes that Britain was a “fortunate freak” because its development was due to a short-term windfall from “coal and empire”, rather than to deeper determinants of long-term change. </p>
<h2>Paths to growth</h2>
<p>The publication of The Great Divergence led to a broad and <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.ezproxy.uow.edu.au/doi/10.1111/aehr.12059/abstract">thought-provoking debate</a> in economic history for a decade and a half. </p>
<p>What we learnt from it – above all else – was that there have been different forms of economic development across the world. And some of these have been pathways less recognisable to Europeanists accustomed to coal and heavy industry as staples, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the measure, of development. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.routledge.com/Labour-Intensive-Industrialization-in-Global-History/Austin-Sugihara/p/book/9781138901148">Other historians</a> have drawn attention to forms of industrialisation, especially in Asia, that have needed more human – and less non-renewable natural – resources. </p>
<p>Now that we are living in an era when coal’s environmental problems have come to the fore, it’s heartening to be reminded that there are other growth paths. </p>
<p>The other relevant insight from the Great Divergence debate is that human agency is vital; there are no immutable lessons of geography or ecology, and no development path is unchanging. </p>
<p>Coal and other resources have always been abundant in many parts of the world. It’s the human ingenuity found in particular societies – however derived – that has created high levels of wellbeing from these natural resources.</p>
<p>Let’s hope we will find a way of maintaining living standards into the future while mitigating the impact of our growth on the environment. </p>
<p><em>This is the second article in our series on the past, present and future of coal. Look out for other pieces over the coming days.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Ville does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Britain lucked out with its coal deposits – but other nations have developed without coal.Simon Ville, Senior Professor of Economic and Business History, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/557282016-03-10T14:27:08Z2016-03-10T14:27:08ZHave we hit ‘peak stuff’?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114671/original/image-20160310-26268-14pdsl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/intelfreepress/11470960294">intelfreepress</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Is Britain really using <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/feb/29/uk-consumes-far-less-ons-crops-energy-metals-average-material-consumption">far less food, fuel, metals and materials</a> now than at the turn of the century? Have we reached “peak stuff”? Certainly the UK Office of National Statistics <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/articles/ukenvironmentalaccountshowmuchmaterialistheukconsuming/ukenvironmentalaccountshowmuchmaterialistheukconsuming">figures</a> for 2000-2013 seem to suggest this is the case. The problem is that these figures don’t take into account the full range of materials that went into the products we import.</p>
<p>The ONS calculates the effects of trade on the UK’s materials use in a way that takes into account everything required to produce any goods consumed in Britain, whether they originated in the UK or abroad. This is called the total <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/environment/material-flows-and-resource-productivity">raw material consumption</a>, and is effectively the country’s “material footprint”. To reach this figure, ONS takes the materials extracted from within the UK’s territory, subtracts those materials involved in the production of exported goods, and adds materials that are involved in the production of imported goods. </p>
<p>Removing the impact of exported goods is straightforward because we know the total materials that are required to make UK products. But in order to estimate the materials involved in imports, we need to know how much of each different type of product we import, from where, and how efficiently industries are in the country that produces that product. The problem is that the ONS assumes that UK imports have the same profile as the European average when in reality the UK’s trade partners will be different. This is important because production practices vary worldwide and knowing exactly where the UK imports from will give a more accurate number for the material footprint.</p>
<h2>Filling the gaps</h2>
<p>So <a href="http://ciemap.leeds.ac.uk">our research group</a> tried to calculate the UK’s material footprint taking this production variation between countries into account. To do this we used a model of global trade that understands how industries trade with other industries all over the world. What we found was that while domestic material consumption has fallen (the blue portion of the figure below), this has been overshadowed by rising imports – particularly from China and the rest of the world where material efficiency is, on average, worse than Europe.</p>
<p>We found an estimated material footprint for the UK for 2011 that was 18.5 tonnes of material per person, with 57% of this originating from China and the rest of the world. In 2001 this proportion was 47%, and in 1970 it was just 15%. This is considerably higher than the figures reported by the ONS for 2011 where the material footprint is 10.3 tonnes per person.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114459/original/image-20160309-13722-1mh3t4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114459/original/image-20160309-13722-1mh3t4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114459/original/image-20160309-13722-1mh3t4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114459/original/image-20160309-13722-1mh3t4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114459/original/image-20160309-13722-1mh3t4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114459/original/image-20160309-13722-1mh3t4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114459/original/image-20160309-13722-1mh3t4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114459/original/image-20160309-13722-1mh3t4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Material footprint of the UK, 1970-2013, by source of material.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CIEMAP/University of Leeds</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our figures also reveal a sharp increase of consumption until the economic crisis in 2008, and a study by Thomas Wiedmann and colleagues published recently concluded something similar: that <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/112/20/6271.full.pdf">Britain’s material footprint has risen over the last 20 years</a>, peaking at around 25 tonnes per person in 2008. The ONS report on the other hand points to a general decline in UK material consumption, and particularly that this decline comes <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/31/consumption-of-goods-falling">despite a growth of GDP at the same time</a>.</p>
<h2>Digital stuff</h2>
<p>Could this be, as <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/feb/29/uk-consumes-far-less-ons-crops-energy-metals-average-material-consumption">has been suggested</a>, due to UK households purchasing fewer resource-intensive goods – for example, by replacing physical items such as CDs and books with digital media? In fact our research shows that both the increase prior to the economic crisis in 2008, and the fall that followed it, are mainly driven by the use of construction materials.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114460/original/image-20160309-13709-14qgvys.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114460/original/image-20160309-13709-14qgvys.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114460/original/image-20160309-13709-14qgvys.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114460/original/image-20160309-13709-14qgvys.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114460/original/image-20160309-13709-14qgvys.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114460/original/image-20160309-13709-14qgvys.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114460/original/image-20160309-13709-14qgvys.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114460/original/image-20160309-13709-14qgvys.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Material footprint of the UK, 1970-2013, by material type.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CIEMAP/University of Leeds</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/constructionindustry/bulletins/outputintheconstructionindustry/previousReleases">ONS data for the construction industry</a> shows that the value (in 2013 prices) of construction industry work increased from £44 billion in 2000 to £81 billion in 2007, before dropping to £66 billion in 2009. House building rose from 176,850 completions in 2000 to 226,420 in 2007, plunging to 137,280 in 2010. This is matched by a reduction in the portion of the material footprint between 2008 and 2009 made up by construction materials, which fell by 7.3%, ores by 1.0%, and fossil fuels by 3.9%.</p>
<p>So have Western economies like Britain really hit “peak stuff”? We’d argue that the materials required by the UK follow the patterns of economic growth more closely than the data reported by the ONS. Speculation that this has peaked seems premature while we are still in a period of economic recovery. Only time will tell if we can successfully decouple the link between GDP and material use – buying less even as we grow richer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Owen receives funding from UK Energy Research Center (UKERC) and Center for Industrial Energy, Materials and Products. Both centers are funded by UK Research Council grants</span></em></p>Researchers calculate whether we’re using less materials, or whether we’re just shipping it in from abroad.Anne Owen, Research Fellow in Sustainable Consumption, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/430952015-06-15T04:04:45Z2015-06-15T04:04:45ZCan Zambia escape the clutches of the resource curse?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/84855/original/image-20150612-1461-1b3p3su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Zambia's success in building its food processing sector depends on tapping into procurement strategies of retail chains such as Shoprite.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Salim Henry</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Zambia has made slow but <a href="http://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Roberts-et-al-2015-Working-paper.pdf">steady progress</a> in building its industrial capabilities. But a major push is needed if the manufacturing sector is to help lessen the country’s dependence on exports of copper and reduce poverty and unemployment. </p>
<p>This may prove a challenge given that Zambia’s economy has been driven by copper mining. Economies that are dominated by <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21638141-africas-growth-being-powered-things-other-commodities-twilight">mineral resources</a> have found it difficult to develop manufacturing. Compounding Zambia’s problem is that it is landlocked, making connections to export markets that much more difficult. </p>
<p>Zambia’s economy grew at an average of 7.76% between 2004 and 2013, faster than the 5% average for sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the high growth rates, the country has not achieved its ambition of diversifying its economy and reducing poverty. </p>
<p>This failure is explained by exports of copper mining having been the biggest driver of the growth.</p>
<h2>Green shoots in manufacturing</h2>
<p>Mining has spurred urbanisation and rising incomes, which have boosted consumption and demand for processed agricultural products. It has also driven the growth of associated industries such as construction, information communication technologies and retail.</p>
<p>Between 2008 and 2013, Zambia’s non-traditional exports grew threefold. A small but growing portion of these represents the growing capabilities and competitiveness of the manufacturing sector.</p>
<p>Most of the non-traditional exports are targeted at southern African markets. Apart from semi-finished copper products, value-added products include cement, animal fodder, milling products, essential oils, and iron and steel products. The number of small and medium-sized firms involved in exporting to the region is also growing. </p>
<p>The manufacturing sector has made a positive contribution to Zambia’s employment and investment. Job creation in the sector has increased fourfold from 55,600 people in 2005 to 216,700 people in 2012. </p>
<p>For this reason, Zambia has prioritised industrial development and has recently approved an industrialisation and job creation strategy paper. </p>
<p>The low-hanging fruits can be found in the <a href="http://www.zda.org.zm/?q=content/manufacturing-sector">agro-processing sector</a>. Food and beverages is the largest component of household consumption in Zambia as well as in the region. </p>
<p>The growth of the urban <a href="http://www.iss.nl/fileadmin/ASSETS/iss/Documents/Conference_presentations/lecture_carlos_lopes.pdf">middle class</a> is driving consumption of processed foods and beverages. Given Zambia’s agricultural <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19712383/promoting-trade-competitiveness-can-zambia">potential</a>, this means the country has substantial opportunities for meeting demand in the region. </p>
<p>But it will only be able to take advantage of these opportunities if it invests in agro-processing. The <a href="http://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Roberts-et-al-2015-Working-paper.pdf">study</a> lists a lack of access to capital as one of the constraints to growth. The government is developing financing options. Among them is an empowerment <a href="http://www.mcti.gov.zm/index.php/about-mcti/statutory-bodies/citizens-economic-empowerment-commission">commission</a> which has developed a mechanism for investing in agro-processing. </p>
<p>There are also increasing levels of foreign and domestic investment in agricultural production – in particular, in <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19712383/promoting-trade-competitiveness-can-zambia">soybean, wheat, poultry and sugar</a> production. And Zambia is already a competitive exporter of vegetables and milling products. </p>
<p>Domestic urban and rural demand for processed foods is increasingly structured around supermarket retail chains. This requires a strategy to implement an effective supplier upgrading programme. Such a programme should take into account the procurement strategies of the retail chains as well as the characteristics of the suppliers. </p>
<h2>Pricing of sugar hampers manufacturing sector</h2>
<p>Zambia could be competitive in the sugar confectionery and other sugar-based products, animal fodder and broiler meat because it offers <a href="http://www.iapri.org.zm/images/WorkingPapers/wp89_revised.pdf">low-cost production</a>. </p>
<p>But charging international prices to the domestic manufacturers hampers the growth of Zambian firms that use these raw materials. </p>
<p>Reducing <a href="http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/fileadmin/uploads/aeo/2014/PDF/Thematic_Edition/Edition_Thematique_EN_web.pdf">transport costs</a> to regional urban centres is also an important hurdle to clear. This could turn Zambia into the regional supply hub for animal fodder. This would enable it to meet a growing demand for inputs into the poultry industry. </p>
<h2>The mining sector as a driver</h2>
<p>The Zambian government’s <a href="http://www.psdzambia.org/uploads/3/0/7/4/3074051/strategy_paper_on_industrialisation_and_job_creation_december_version.pdf">industrial strategy</a> has prioritised engineering products. The <a href="http://mines.org.zm/">mining sector</a> can open up a sizeable market for Zambian manufacturers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/84839/original/image-20150612-1461-10bo0u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/84839/original/image-20150612-1461-10bo0u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/84839/original/image-20150612-1461-10bo0u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/84839/original/image-20150612-1461-10bo0u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/84839/original/image-20150612-1461-10bo0u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/84839/original/image-20150612-1461-10bo0u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/84839/original/image-20150612-1461-10bo0u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Zambia could become a hub for supplying equipment and other inputs to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s mining sector.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Jonny Hogg</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.miningreview.com/zambian-minister-of-mines-calls-on-mines-to-work-with-local-manufacturers/">Local sourcing</a> of equipment and other mining inputs is low. But the market for equipment and other mining inputs in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) copperbelt potentially enlarges the market that Zambian can use to develop <a href="http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/06/25/000333037_20140625150055/Rendered/PDF/888630WP0P13090brief030for0web00610.pdf">economies of scale</a>.</p>
<p>A good example is the re-conditioning of mining equipment. Already, <a href="http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/06/25/000333037_20140625150055/Rendered/PDF/888630WP0P13090brief030for0web00610.pdf">re-exports</a> of mining equipment to the DRC figure among Zambia’s top export products. </p>
<h2>Tapping into South Africa’s competences</h2>
<p>In designing its local content policy, Zambia should consider <a href="http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/06/25/000333037_20140625150055/Rendered/PDF/888630WP0P13090brief030for0web00610.pdf">co-operation within the region</a>. In particular, it should tap into South Africa’s capabilities and competences as southern Africa’s hub for mining-related capital equipment and services. </p>
<p>The region should also feature in a broader strategy for the <a href="http://www.psdzambia.org/uploads/3/0/7/4/3074051/strategy_paper_on_industrialisation_and_job_creation_december_version.pdf">engineering sector</a> to increase sub-contracting opportunities and relax skills and capital constraints. </p>
<p>To advance its industrialisation agenda, three key issues deserve attention:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>To facilitate entry into mining and retail value chains by domestic firms government needs to improve access to credit. Working with buyers and suppliers it must introduce a national quality assurance system.</p></li>
<li><p>The southern African region has become the largest <a href="http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/06/25/000333037_20140625150055/Rendered/PDF/888630WP0P13090brief030for0web00610.pdf">destination</a> for Zambia’s non-traditional exports. Free trade areas under <a href="http://www.comesa.int/">COMESA</a> and <a href="http://www.sadc.int/">SADC</a> are important, but Zambia must focus on regional industrial co-operation programmes that strengthen its position. </p></li>
<li><p>Low levels of competition undermine downstream activities. This is a problem in the cement, sugar, and poultry industries. Industrial policy needs to ensure the competitive supply of raw materials and intermediate inputs to downstream activities. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Zambia’s industrialisation is increasingly gaining momentum on the back of renewed policy efforts and investment from domestic, regional and global players. In this context, it is particularly important for Zambia to focus on implementation. It must develop effective programmes for upgrading its manufacturing capabilities, adopt a regional perspective and deal with difficult competition issues.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/43095/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Herryman Moono is the National Secretary for the Economics Association of Zambia.</span></em></p>Zambia’s drive to build its industrial capabilities has made steady progress. But it runs up against the history of economies that are dominated by mineral resources and landlocked countries.Herryman Moono, Country (Zambia) Economist and Researcher, International Growth Centre, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/201702013-11-22T15:15:21Z2013-11-22T15:15:21ZMetals and minerals will be the next finite resource shortfall<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/35716/original/cw96y8nf-1384973266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">All that glitters is not aluminium, iron, copper, or selenium, unfortunately.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arenamontanus</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We are now looking forward to a low-carbon society where fossil fuels are at least partially replaced with renewable sources of energy such as solar, wind, geo-thermal and tidal. Fossil fuels are a finite resource, as is the amount of greenhouse gases the planet’s atmosphere can absorb before instigating catastrophic climate change which switching to renewables is intended to avoid. </p>
<p>But, as <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n11/full/ngeo1993.html">we have argued recently</a> in the journal Nature, by building solar panels and wind turbines in great numbers to replace the power of coal, oil and gas, we are swapping one set of finite limitations for another: metal.</p>
<p>Currently wind and solar provide only about 1% of global energy, but this contribution <a href="http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/the_energy_report_lowres_111110.pdf">is expected to increase</a> from 400 terawatt-hours (TWh) to 25,000TWh in 2050. Since most renewable energy sources are diffuse and intermittent, to harness large amounts of this energy requires complex infrastructure distributed over large areas.</p>
<p>This requires large amounts of metals and minerals. To produce equivalent power to that generated by fossil fuels or nuclear power stations, solar and wind require up to 90 times more aluminium, 50 times more iron, copper and glass, and 15 times more concrete. Also needed is the sand and industrial minerals necessary to make concrete and glass, and resins and plastics derived from hydrocarbons. </p>
<p>These materials will be tied up for 10-20 years, and won’t be available for recycling until whatever solar panel or wind turbine they were turned into is retired. About 3,200m tonnes of steel, 310m tonnes of aluminium and 40m tonnes of copper will be required to construct the energy infrastructure needed to generate the expected 25,000TWh. In the next 40 years, the annual global demand for these elements will rise by 5-18% of the world supply in 2010; an increase equivalent to the demand from all industrial sectors between 1970-2000. The anticipated demand for minor metals, used extensively in the green energy sector, is more worrying: between 2010-2030, the annual global demand for the elements gallium, indium, selinium, tellurium and rare earths to manufacture solar panels and wind turbines will increase by the equivalent of <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/etudes/join/2011/471604/IPOL-JOIN_ET(2011)471604_EN.pdf">between 10-230% of the world supply</a>.</p>
<p>Renewable energy’s demand for raw materials will also compete with other industries, as new technologies used in the IT, transport and green energy sectors require a wide set of previously little-used and generally rare metals. Additionally, 10% of the world’s current energy consumption is spent on extracting and processing these mineral resources. </p>
<p>Without extraordinary advances in mining and refining technology, this process is likely to get more energy intensive as miners turn to less accessible or poorer quality deposits. As the huge amounts of energy needed will initially come from fossil fuels, there is a risk that the transfer to renewable energy will be hampered by competition for limited metals and fossil energy that are already becoming more difficult, and more expensive, to secure.</p>
<h2>Sharing the mineral wealth</h2>
<p>What should be done to address these problems? The transition to renewable energy can only work if all resources are managed globally, simultaneously. Earth is rich in resources, but they are finite. Growing demand will force us to fully acknowledge the inherent trade-off between the co-production of metals and energy, and to optimise the way we go about it to use both as efficiently as possible. This will require a co-ordinated effort involving scientists from various disciplines (earth and environmental sciences, material sciences, economy, social sciences), engineers and the industrial base. It will be important to build into future plans the environmental and energy costs of construction, the use and recycling of the necessary production infrastructure, and the distribution and storage of renewable energy and rare metals.</p>
<p>When new products are designed, from the outset their designers will need to take into account the realities of mineral supply by developing technologies using less or no rare elements (substitution). They will need to integrate the recycling of the end product into its raw materials, and any waste generated throughout the product’s entire life cycle. This has already begun to take place, for example in terms of electronic waste, where take-back schemes require the manufacturers to deal with recycling end-of-life products. But it must go far further, and in many more areas of business and industry.</p>
<p>The dependence on foreign metal imports should also be considered – most developed nations import their minerals from abroad. European industries consume more than 20% of the world’s metals, yet the European domestic production of metals is less than 5% of the global production. This situation is highly unsatisfactory for security, economic and ethical reasons and makes European industry vulnerable to supply restrictions.</p>
<p>Green technologies should incorporate domestic and controlled mining which reduces the financial and environmental costs of transporting metals from far-flung sources and decreases the carbon footprint, while providing jobs and wealth to the local community. Currently, much of the pollution associated with mining is outsourced to regions where the environmental impact is often uncontrolled. In Europe, things can and must be done better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/20170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We are now looking forward to a low-carbon society where fossil fuels are at least partially replaced with renewable sources of energy such as solar, wind, geo-thermal and tidal. Fossil fuels are a finite…Olivier Vidal, Research Director in Earth Sciences, Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)Nicholas Arndt, Professor of Geosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/171322013-08-19T20:28:09Z2013-08-19T20:28:09ZThe end of the boom? Someone forgot to tell the resource companies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29418/original/2k7tsc73-1376635663.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If the resources boom is over, why such high levels of mining investment?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the large resource houses seek to invest in capital-intensive and costly minerals projects, what goes through their mind? If the so-called resources boom is over, why are companies still investing in assets that are designed to last a very long time?</p>
<p>A year ago Victoria University’s <a href="http://theconversation.com/investments-are-nearing-their-peak-but-the-mining-boom-isnt-over-yet-9001">Peter Sheehan wrote</a> about the likelihood of the resources boom being sustained for some time yet. He suggested there were three possibilities that could define precisely what the end of a resources boom looks like. </p>
<p>The first is the end of a period of very high commodity prices and high terms of trade. Under this definition then, the boom has clearly ended. The second is an end to high resource-related capital investment. Capital investment has slowed and while it will remain at least until 2015 as investment in natural gas continues (from both the North-West shelf and from coal seams in Queensland and NSW), it is likely to stall soon thereafter. </p>
<p>The third is that the end of the boom would be represented by a sharp fall in the exchange rate. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-cents-of-a-falling-australian-dollar-15846">Aussie dollar</a> has weakened by over 15% against the US dollar in recent months. </p>
<p>Taken together, these possibilities suggest that the resources boom may indeed be over. Nowhere is this more apparent that in forecasting changes to the Federal Budget. The Commonwealth Government is <a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/8/10/federal-budget/govt-failing-adjust-end-china-mining-boom-analysis">lamenting the end of the resources boom</a> and shudders to think that the world’s major miners might reduce their Australian investment to a trickle and put most of their mines into long-term care and maintenance. </p>
<p>But despite many mines continuing to operate at a loss, why was mining investment, exploration activity, downstream infrastructure and recruiting so aggressive in recent years? And why does there continue to be a positive outlook for mining, as <a href="http://www.theajmonline.com.au/mining_news/news/2013/august/august-8-2013/bhp2019s-mackenzie-reforms-needed-to-keep-australia-in-pole-position">demonstrated recently</a> by BHP’s new chief executive Andrew Mackenzie ? </p>
<p>Well, we need to see the opportunity from a miner’s perspective. At the very core, resource firms view their survival in terms of the continued global demand for energy and industrial metals. But a mining executive is not likely to invest time and money where the risks outweigh the reward. Luckily, the demand projections for both raw energy materials and industrial metals remain compelling.</p>
<p>The figure below shows the relationship between GDP per capita and energy consumption (coal, oil, gas and nuclear) per capita for the US, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China and India from 1960-2006 (using World Bank data). This type of representation is what every resource company boardroom in the country confronts when seeking self-assurance that the demand for their wares will continue.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29449/original/5w6pj2pt-1376807870.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29449/original/5w6pj2pt-1376807870.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29449/original/5w6pj2pt-1376807870.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29449/original/5w6pj2pt-1376807870.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29449/original/5w6pj2pt-1376807870.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29449/original/5w6pj2pt-1376807870.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29449/original/5w6pj2pt-1376807870.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: author, World Bank data</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The trajectory of each country in the graph illustrates their annual consumption of all forms of energy through time. Taking the US trajectory (in dark red), the figure shows that GDP per capita has risen over the last 50 years. This growth is loosely associated with a gradual rise in energy consumption. Recently developed countries like Taiwan (in green) and Korea (in black) however show a much more direct and rapid link between GDP per capita growth and energy consumption.</p>
<p>The critical curves on this graph are shown in the lower left-hand corner (near the origin). China’s energy consumption (in red) is starting to rise rapidly in line with its GDP growth. It is tracking very close to the energy consumption trajectory experienced in Korea and Taiwan in the early part of their growth phase. China clearly has a long way to go to match the trajectory of its Asian neighbours, but the potential trend is very clear. Even more significant is the tiny line near the origin that depicts India’s forecast trajectory (in brown). Assuming that India also closely tracks the energy consumption profile of other growth countries for the next 50 years, we anticipate that India’s primary energy use will also increase markedly as it grows.</p>
<p>The profiles measure energy consumption per capita, so to gauge future energy consumption these numbers need to be scaled accordingly. The combined population of India and China is almost five times the combined population of the US, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Whatever energy the US, Japan, Korea and Taiwan consume now, multiply that by about five to get a sense of the energy demand by the two growth economies. That represents a lot of additional coal, gas, oil and uranium.</p>
<p>What is interesting about these projections is that the measurement can be replicated for almost any other commodity. And the results are similarly compelling.</p>
<p>For instance the graph below depicts the same general representation but this time it measures steel consumption per capita relative to GDP growth. The trajectories for developing nations are remarkably similar to the energy consumption profile, although Taiwan appears a bit spaghetti-like in recent years. Chinese and Indian consumption, relative to its developed neighbours, is very small on a per capita basis. Steel consumption is likely to at least double, and then double again, in the next 40 years. China and India’s journey has only just begun. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29450/original/mmtt6mw6-1376808075.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29450/original/mmtt6mw6-1376808075.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29450/original/mmtt6mw6-1376808075.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29450/original/mmtt6mw6-1376808075.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29450/original/mmtt6mw6-1376808075.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29450/original/mmtt6mw6-1376808075.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29450/original/mmtt6mw6-1376808075.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: author, World Bank data</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As every junior economist knows, the consumption of energy and industrial metals are very closely linked to a developing country’s stages of growth. The demand for early cycle commodities like coal, iron ore and potash will eventually slow and be replaced by demand for late cycle commodities like industrial metals. The demand for resource exploration and extraction may shift, but it will inevitably continue. Growth is therefore central to the continued demand for resources; historical growth estimates are thus monitored almost religiously from month-to-month .</p>
<p>These projections are not earth shattering revelations by themselves. But they do allow mining executives to sleep easier at night.</p>
<p>And it is not just the resource houses that place great faith in these trajectories. Construction firms, port operators, rail companies, freight companies, engineering houses and most state and federal governments have all staked a large claim on Chinese and Indian growth.</p>
<p>They can’t all be wrong. Can they?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17132/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason West does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When the large resource houses seek to invest in capital-intensive and costly minerals projects, what goes through their mind? If the so-called resources boom is over, why are companies still investing…Jason West, Associate Professor, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/90632012-08-27T04:07:20Z2012-08-27T04:07:20ZHow China drives the Australian iron ore boom (and bust)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/14635/original/jjy2fr8g-1346027878.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chinese investment in smaller iron-ore suppliers in Western Australia not only presents challenges for the market power of the Big 3 mining companies, but also for the viability of iron ore projects in Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With several major mining projects being put on ice this week, talk has quickly turned to whether the Australian mining boom is about to go bust.</p>
<p>Jumping on comments by the Resources Minister that “<a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Cabinet-ministers-at-odds-over-mining-boom-XEVSE?OpenDocument&src=hp34">the resource boom is over</a>”, the federal opposition has blamed the government’s mining and carbon taxes for <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbott-having-it-both-ways-on-bhp-20120823-24nle.html">BHP’s recent decision</a> to shelve its $30 billion Olympic Dam extension project.</p>
<p>However, developments in the all-important iron ore industry suggest the drivers of the boom – and possible impending bust – lie not in Australia, but China.</p>
<p><strong>A China-driven iron ore boom</strong></p>
<p>Recent growth in the Australian iron ore sector has been driven by the rapid industrialisation of the Chinese economy.</p>
<p>China has, is recent years, begun the transition from “light” to “heavy” stages of industrialisation, with a focus on manufacturing industries such as machinery, ships and automobiles. To supply the raw materials required to accommodate these steel-consuming industries, the predominantly state-owned Chinese steel sector has almost quadrupled in size over the last decade.</p>
<p>Due to China’s lack of access to self-produced, high quality iron ore, its steel firms have had to look abroad in order to source their principal mineral inputs. Iron ore imports soared from 70 million tonnes in 2000, to 685 million tonnes in 2011. As a result, Chinese investment now accounts for close to 80% of the Asia-Pacific steel market market.</p>
<p>However, investments in the mining industry traditionally have very long lead times. Consequently, global supply failed to keep pace with Chinese demand</p>
<p>By mid-2011, the value of iron ore had increased nine-fold in comparison with prices in the year 2000.</p>
<p><strong>China’s resource security strategy</strong></p>
<p>Heightened iron ore prices caused major <a href="http://english.caijing.com.cn/2005-07-28/100013812.html">anxiety in China</a> over resource security – would the steel industry be able to survive this “iron ore crisis”?</p>
<p>Given the high levels state-ownership in the Chinese steel sector, it was the government who led the response to the shortage. In 2005, it issued a new policy which laid out a national strategy for <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420712000128">iron ore resource security</a>.</p>
<p>This strategy had two distinct elements. Firstly, it proposed the development of a Chinese import cartel to challenge the dominant market power of the <a href="http://afr.com/p/national/video_big_three_iron_ore_production_fjIr1H1eoPI73wtmuZe8fM">Big 3 iron ore firms</a> (BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale) during annual price negotiations. Secondly, it aimed to promote Chinese investment into new entrants in the Asia-Pacific iron ore market, thus increasing available supply.</p>
<p>The cartelisation strategy ultimately proved disastrous. After several years of arduous talks, annual price negotiations between firms broke down following the <a href="http://asaa.asn.au/ASAA2010/reviewed_papers/Leaver-Richard.pdf">Stern Hu Affair</a> of 2009-10. Their replacement with a <a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/WRAPUP-1-BHP-Vale-shift-to-quarterly-iron-ore-pric-426DD?OpenDocument">quarterly index pricing system</a> has done little to soften China’s pain, with iron ore prices still well above their level five years ago.</p>
<p><strong>Investing to break the Big 3</strong></p>
<p>The Chinese investment strategy, however, may prove successful where the cartelisation strategy failed. With government support, Chinese firms have invested $29 billion in sponsor of <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420712000128">thirty-five new entrants</a> to the regional market, the majority of which are based in Western Australia. These investments were expressly designed to <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-03/25/content_12225742.htm">“break the monopoly”</a> of the Big 3 and lower world iron ore prices.</p>
<p>While most of these projects are still in the “development” stage, they collectively plan to produce some 425 million tonnes of iron ore annually. When added with expansions planned by the Big 3, almost 900 million tonnes of new capacity is currently on the drawing board.</p>
<p>This will go a long way in levelling out the imbalance between regional supply and demand and in response, iron ore prices are <a href="http://ideas.repec.org/p/eab/wpaper/23293.html">certain to fall in the coming years</a>.</p>
<p>The magnitude of the effect of this strategy remains debated, with some predicting only <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/iron-ore-prices-to-remain-firm-says-macquarie-analyst/story-e6frg9df-1226078956615">moderate falls</a> while others have forecast a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/iron-ore-price-train-is-coming-to-a-stop-20110313-1bsxn.html">halving of prices</a>. But in either scenario, the <a href="http://afr.com/p/national/resources_boom_is_over_ferguson_8lUAkfoHJuGhTqmxT6hAfJ">federal Resources Minister</a> is correct in claiming the boom times for iron ore investment are now over.</p>
<p><strong>Lean times ahead?</strong></p>
<p>What does this mean for the Australian iron ore sector? Will the boom turn to bust?</p>
<p>Probably not - but the boom is unlikely to be as big as many have predicted.</p>
<p>Price falls will prove a difficult obstacle for the new iron ore players. Nearly all of the China-sponsored projects are modest in size, planning for production of between five and fifteen million tonnes of iron ore annually.</p>
<p>In comparison to the Big 3 – who produce between <a href="http://www.bhpbilliton.com/home/investors/reports/Documents/110720_BHP%20Billiton%20Production%20Report%20for%20the%20Year%20Ended%2030%20June%202011.pdf">155</a> and <a href="http://www.texreport.co.jp/xenglish/eng-genryou/201202/201202171022Fri-2.html">323</a> million tonnes per year – these companies are perilously small. In the scale-dependent iron ore industry, many will prove uncompetitive in the wake of reduced prices and are likely to be abandoned. Sinosteel Midwest’s <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/9695769/oakajee-in-doubt-as-sinosteel-pulls-mid-west-project/">shelving of its Weld Range project</a> last year may prove to be just the tip of the iceberg in terms of project cancellations and roll-backs.</p>
<p>However, some new entrants – such as Fortescue Metals Group – have managed to make the transition from small development project to large-scale export operation. So there is still space for new players, even if it is unlikely that all those planning new mines will ultimately succeed.</p>
<p>In the meantime, Australia’s iron ore juniors are now “racing to market” in the hope of avoiding the fate of Olympic Dam and Weld Range. While the China-driven iron ore boom is far from over, it will likely prove more modest than prior expectations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/9063/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey Wilson does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.</span></em></p>With several major mining projects being put on ice this week, talk has quickly turned to whether the Australian mining boom is about to go bust. Jumping on comments by the Resources Minister that “the…Jeffrey Wilson, Fellow of the Asia Research Centre, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/89672012-08-21T04:05:01Z2012-08-21T04:05:01ZGlimmers of hope in the steel industry’s darkest hour<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/14441/original/7zjm4wz6-1345460864.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The closure of BlueScope's no 6 Blast Furnace at Port Kembla was an acknowledgement that Australia simply cannot compete with our cheaper Asian rivals.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/earnings-season/bluescope-steel-annual-loss-tops-1-billion-20120820-24h3u.html">$1 billion dollar annual loss announced by BlueScope Steel</a> confirmed what is common knowledge: the Australian steel industry is in crisis and fighting for survival. The latest statistics show that steel production in this country has dropped by over 30% since 2011 as the high Australian dollar and low cost imports from China have largely wiped out our export market and created problems in local markets for Arrium and BlueScope. </p>
<p>The closure of the giant No. 6 Blast Furnace at Port Kembla last year was a momentous occasion and an acknowledgement that in the current climate, Australian steel simply cannot compete with our cheaper Asian rivals.</p>
<p>As discussed in an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-must-forge-a-future-in-chinas-age-of-steel-6278">earlier article</a>, these problems reflect not just the distortion to our dollar induced by the mining boom but also a failure to innovate and develop products and downstream industries that build on our significant advantages with raw materials and technological know how. </p>
<p>The No. 6 Blast Furnace was one of the most technologically advanced in the world and we have plentiful supplies of good quality ore and coking coals. Our steel industry makes relatively stock standard grades of steel – grinding media made by Arrium being a notable exception - that the aggressive and low cost Asian steelmakers easily undercut. Of course, the high Australian dollar makes the whole situation worse but the underlying problems are not new.</p>
<p>Is there hope for this ailing industry?</p>
<p>Yes, history does show that ailing steel industries can bounce back. The story of Nucor is a case in point. Nucor developed as a successful steel company during the 1970s and 1980s, when the American steel industry was in a deep crisis. During this era, the American steel industry had become slow and costly. </p>
<p>It lagged behind the Japanese and other new players, in both technology and management practices. As wonderfully described by the Pultizer prize-winning John Strohmeyer in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Crisis-In-Bethlehem-John-Strohmeyer/dp/0822958112">Crisis in Bethlehem</a>, many executives in the top-heavy American steel industry at the time were more interested in the politics of the company golf club than they were in technical innovation.</p>
<p>Ken Iverson, the charismatic president of Nucor, turned the problems of the traditional large corporation on their head by breaking down the hierarchical structures associated with companies like Bethlehem Steel and US Steel and emphasising teamwork, performance-based compensation, shared benefits and community involvement. </p>
<p>These innovations in management structures were also matched by taking the lead in the development of mini-mill technology, which at the time was undergoing a revolution. In particular, they moved mini-mill technology closer to the high-value end of the steel product range, producing high quality flat products from scrap feed materials. </p>
<p>These energetic and innovative approaches produced high performance in terms of profits, worker satisfaction and environmental impact. Many companies have copied Iverson’s approach and his ideas are still being discussed in the boardrooms of steel companies around the world.</p>
<p>What lessons can we draw from the Nucor story?</p>
<p>We need new ideas. Our steel industry needs to look for innovation, not just in terms of products but also, in terms of management structures and community engagement. I support efforts by the federal government to help our ailing steel industry through this difficult time, we should not let such a vital industry pass away so easily, but for a long term future we will need new players and ideas.</p>
<p>Can we use our plentiful natural gas supplies to make direct reduced iron in Western Australia? Where are the next generation of coated products? Could we develop mini-mills in the north of Australia to service the growing steel demand in south-east Asia? How do we move our existing mini-mills towards higher grade products? </p>
<p>Given our excellent nickel resources, could we develop a new ferro-alloy industry (we closed our only stainless steel plant in the 90s)? Is it time to develop a high tech. steel recycling industry in Queensland? Is there a future for ultrafine grain steels being produced in Australia?</p>
<p>In my own laboratories at the moment, we are exploring the idea of using concentrated solar energy for mineral processing. </p>
<p>The idea is that we could value add to our minerals at the mine site using our abundant solar resources to smelt minerals and produce metal close to the source. Production of iron is an obvious candidate. In Australia, we have plenty of iron ore, coal and sun. It is early days and there are many challenges to get such an idea working – capital costs, optimising the solar energy effectively, reactor design – but it is in looking for these types of natural advantages that some sort of new future could be found.</p>
<p>Are there any Ken Iverson’s out there? Your time has come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/8967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Brooks receives funding from various steel companies around the world for research into fundamental aspects of steelmaking, including from Tata Steel and OneSteel.</span></em></p>The $1 billion dollar annual loss announced by BlueScope Steel confirmed what is common knowledge: the Australian steel industry is in crisis and fighting for survival. The latest statistics show that…Geoffrey Brooks, Professor of Engineering, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/67122012-05-01T04:17:42Z2012-05-01T04:17:42ZAsteroid mining will happen … but Australia will miss the boom<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10154/original/hm3hhz57-1335830943.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When we start building structures outside Earth, the raw materials will likely come from asteroids.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Planetary Resources</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There will be a future mining boom, as heralded in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17827347">recent media stories</a>. But this mining will take place in a location even more hostile than the Australian Outback – space.</p>
<p>More specifically, the ore bodies that comprise the myriad asteroids we now know are whizzing by our planet with alarming frequency.</p>
<p>The publicity blitz was provoked by the formation of a new US-based company, named <a href="http://www.planetaryresources.com/">Planetary Resources</a>.</p>
<p>The company is backed by film director James Cameron and a host of well-known billionaires who made their fortunes in the aerospace and internet industries.</p>
<p>Planetary Resources has <a href="http://www.planetaryresources.com/2012/04/asteroid-mining-plans-revealed-by-planetary-resources-inc/">a seemingly unlikely aim</a>, yet one that has been obvious to space scientists for at least 20 years: to mine near-Earth asteroids, which are composed of a wide variety of useful minerals.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7fYYPN0BdBw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>One thing perhaps not made clear in the media furore, is the <em>point</em> of this mining. It’s not to divert the asteroids and bring them down to the surface of our planet, but rather to make use of their valuable constituents for utilisation in space.</p>
<p>When humankind starts its move off the earth we’ll need to start manufacturing various products in space, including high-quality alloys and electronics. On the larger scale we’ll also need to construct large, permanently inhabited off-planet islands and it will be near-Earth asteroids from which we derive the needed raw materials.</p>
<p>The reason for this is not a shortage of minerals and other necessary supplies down here on Earth, but rather the expense of getting them into space.</p>
<p>To get a rocket off Earth’s surface and into orbit we need to accelerate it to a speed of over 7.5km per second (or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_velocity">27,000km/h</a>). That is expensive, although launch costs have dropped in recent years to about US$10,000 per kilogram.</p>
<p>A cubic metre of water may cost you a few dollars from your bathroom tap, but the same volume would cost US$10 million to put into orbit. In fact, the cost would be even higher than that, due to the weight of the container needed to hold the water.</p>
<p>To send payloads further away, escaping Earth’s gravity and going into independent orbit around the sun, requires more energy still (and therefore more money).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10007/original/vt2585dg-1335500970.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10007/original/vt2585dg-1335500970.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10007/original/vt2585dg-1335500970.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10007/original/vt2585dg-1335500970.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10007/original/vt2585dg-1335500970.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10007/original/vt2585dg-1335500970.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10007/original/vt2585dg-1335500970.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10007/original/vt2585dg-1335500970.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A manned mission to an asteroid is on the cards.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tony Dowler</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Space researchers quantify the needed energy, and therefore the rocket sizes required, in terms of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta-v_budget">Delta-V (∆V)</a>: the overall change in velocity (or speed) needed to rendezvous with some celestial target.</p>
<p>Imagine you’ve sent a rocket on its way to the moon. To execute a soft landing on the lunar surface and then blast-off again, as in the <a href="http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/lunar/apollo.html">Apollo Program</a>, requires a Delta-V of at least 6km/s.</p>
<p>That’s a lot. Remember, it was not much more (7.5km/s) to get off Earth and into orbit in the first place. To get to (say) Mars, land on its surface and then launch again and return to Earth, would necessitate a far higher Delta-V.</p>
<p>On the other hand, we now know of asteroids that pass close by Earth with relative speeds (and therefore required Delta-V for rendezvous) of only 2km/s. This means they are the most accessible objects in space.</p>
<p>Don’t be fooled by the fact that they spend most of their time far away from us: in space it’s not distance that counts, but the necessary Delta-V.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10153/original/35vqmr6c-1335830904.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10153/original/35vqmr6c-1335830904.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10153/original/35vqmr6c-1335830904.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10153/original/35vqmr6c-1335830904.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10153/original/35vqmr6c-1335830904.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10153/original/35vqmr6c-1335830904.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10153/original/35vqmr6c-1335830904.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10153/original/35vqmr6c-1335830904.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Click for larger view.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Planetary Resources</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The next cosmic objects on to which we will place astronaut footprints will undoubtedly be the asteroids. This has been foreshadowed in <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1370006/NASA-plans-manned-mission-asteroid-2025.html">the rhetoric of NASA</a> and indeed by President Obama himself (see video below).</p>
<p>Forget the Moon and forget Mars: the asteroids are our next stop.</p>
<p>It’s in this context that Planetary Resources’ mining plans should be considered. The backers know these are to be the major targets of future manned missions. They also know the same asteroids are made of the metals, rock and other materials we will need to develop a permanent presence off our planetary home.</p>
<p>For instance, we know that <a href="http://physics.ucf.edu/%7Ecampins/paris2011/">water is present out there in abundance</a>, and astronauts will need water for drinking, for growing food and for <a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090406102555.htm">splitting into its constituent atoms</a> to get oxygen to breathe.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t7dxfMkW-I4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Once upon a time Australia was well-placed to be involved in this future boom. In 1989 I began the first southern-hemisphere search for near-Earth asteroids. Indeed it was the first search outside the USA.</p>
<p>In 1996 the federal government cut all funding, despite protests from all around the globe, including from some prominent people such as the late <a href="http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/page/tel0bio-1">Edward Teller</a>, a Hungarian-American particle physicist.</p>
<p>NASA was so aghast at these funding cuts (because related NASA projects were dependent on our observing capabilities) that funding was delivered from NASA to the University of Arizona to the Australian National University to pay the two main observers on my project – <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_H._McNaught">Rob McNaught</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_J._Garradd">Gordon Garradd</a> – to keep searching.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10160/original/2pwg7c26-1335832474.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/10160/original/2pwg7c26-1335832474.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10160/original/2pwg7c26-1335832474.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10160/original/2pwg7c26-1335832474.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10160/original/2pwg7c26-1335832474.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10160/original/2pwg7c26-1335832474.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/10160/original/2pwg7c26-1335832474.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Identifying resource-rich near-Earth asteroids is the first step for Plantery Resources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Planetary Resources</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But as the great New Zealand physicist <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/chemistry/laureates/1908/rutherford-bio.html">Lord Ernest Rutherford</a> once said, <a href="http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Ernest_Rutherford">science is either physics or stamp collecting</a> and merely spotting new objects is definitely the latter.</p>
<p>Because of this Australia lost its pre-eminent position in near-Earth asteroid research.</p>
<p>The view of the Australian government was clear. In response to another wave of letters from around the world in 2002, urging a resumption of scientific research on these objects, the then Science Minister, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_McGauran">Peter McGauran</a>, went on Channel 9’s 60 Minutes to describe searching for near-Earth asteroids as being <a href="http://www.rense.com/general21/australianofficial.htm">“a fruitless, unnecessary, self-indulgent exercise”</a>.</p>
<p>And now NASA’s funding to Australia for near-Earth asteroid research has stopped forever, while other nations forge ahead.</p>
<p>If science really is Australia’s future (as <a href="http://www.cisco.com/web/ANZ/learning/assets/pdf/csiro_uc_presentation-v12.pdf">CSIRO says it is</a>), the country doesn’t have a hope, at least in this field.</p>
<p>Instead, we’ll watch on as the rest of the world, including Planetary Resources, take the next step in space exploration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/6712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duncan Steel received Australian Research Council/DEET grants between 1989-95.
</span></em></p>There will be a future mining boom, as heralded in recent media stories. But this mining will take place in a location even more hostile than the Australian Outback – space. More specifically, the ore…Duncan Steel, Visiting Researcher, Australian Centre for Astrobiology, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/18472011-07-29T02:21:16Z2011-07-29T02:21:16ZThe Boom: Iron ore and Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/2484/original/PIC_-_Mudd_AFP_PHOTO_CHRISTIAN_SPROGOE_RIO_TINTO.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Iron ore is now Australia's biggest export.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP/CHRISTIAN SPROGOE RIO TINTO</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s economic future lies underneath our feet. The island continent is blessed with a variety of natural resources but none as plentiful or important as iron ore.</p>
<p>Iron is a common element in soils and rocks – but finding it in high concentrations and the right minerals worth mining takes a bit more effort. Australia has been endowed with giant iron ore mineral resources and we keep finding more. </p>
<p>In 2010, iron ore overtook coal as Australia’s most valuable export – $47.2 billion worth left our shores (coal was $43 billion). Given the debate about the carbon tax and climate change, can iron ore replace the money we currently earn from exporting carbon emissions - in coal form - to the world?</p>
<p>The answer is undoubtedly yes.</p>
<h2>What is iron ore?</h2>
<p>Iron is found in three major types of iron-bearing minerals – hematite, goethite and magnetite. In general, steel mills love hematite and goethite ores since they contain high grade iron (more than 50% iron), while magnetite ores have lower grades and require more processing to produce a saleable iron ore pellet for the steel mills. Historically, the vast majority of Australia’s iron ore production has been from hematite or goethite-type ores, with only minor magnetite production.</p>
<p>Given the insatiable demand for raw materials in Asia, especially in China, Australia’s iron ore exports have quadrupled since 1990 and reached 400 million tonnes (Mt) in 2010. The big three miners are Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and more recently Fortescue Metals Group, with many other smaller players. If one examined all current iron ore projects under consideration or active developments, it is easy to see why the industry boasts of reaching a billion tonnes of exports per year by 2020.</p>
<p>The obvious question then arises as to how long this boom or so-called super-cycle’ can last.</p>
<h2>How much ore do we have?</h2>
<p>The Australian mining industry reports annually on the mineral resources they control – so it’s easy to check just how much we have. </p>
<p>For example, 2010 resources in the Pilbara alone include Rio Tinto’s resources of 15,500 Mt grading 60.3% iron, BHP Billiton’s resources of 14,300 Mt grading 59.6% iron, and Fortescue Metals resources of 8,160 Mt grading 49.5% iron – or some 38,000 Mt for just the three big players alone. </p>
<p>A raft of mid-sized and junior companies also report iron ore resources in the Pilbara – as well as moderate size iron ore mines in South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. There are also prospects for iron ore mines in Queensland and New South Wales (some speculative but others quite real), although poor old Victoria misses out</p>
<p>According to Geoscience Australia, in December 2009 there was 28,000 Mt of economic iron ore resources and a further 35,700 Mt of sub-economic and marginal resources. </p>
<p>If you look at Western Australia’s resource data, the Department of Mines and Petroleum’s ‘MINEDEX’ system reckons that there is some 66,900 Mt of iron ore resources in WA alone – ignoring the rest of the nation which also hosts various modest deposits. If one remembers their history lessons, in 1938 Australia supposedly considered itself so short of iron ore that it banned exports – a policy which remained until 1961. The trend since this time is beyond the wildest dreams of the miners – from a minimal resource base to being a powerhouse of iron ore globally.</p>
<p>Let’s do some basic maths. Assuming the industry reaches a billion tonnes by the end of this decade, and then the production stays constant – by 2050 the cumulative production would be 28,000 Mt. Alternatively, let’s assume that the production grows at this same rate – by 2050 the annual production would be 3,000 Mt and the cumulative production would be 68,000 Mt. </p>
<p>Given the ongoing exploration, discovery and increase in reported economic iron ore resources – we clearly do not need to be worried about the “amount left”, since there is plenty for several decades at least. Worry about peak oil absolutely – but certainly not peak iron ore.</p>
<h2>The cost of becoming rich</h2>
<p>Every bit of iron ore used to produce a tonne of steel gives rise to an average of about two tonnes of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – partly due to mining and transport, but mostly due to the smelting/refining with coking coal.</p>
<p>Steel mills that use electric arc furnaces use a high proportion of recycled steel, and this can considerably reduce the emissions intensity. The use of biomass to replace coking coal also decreases the emissions intensity of steel. Furthermore, the Pilbara is now a network of railways, mega-mines and exploration leases – with some even going through the centre of national parks (eg. Karajini). </p>
<p>In sustainability reports, you can see the gradual increase in water and energy consumption and GHG emissions per tonne of iron ore railed to the ports. The amount of water discharged each year to the environment from mines is also increasing substantially – largely due to mines getting bigger and deeper and having more water to manage (some big wet seasons don’t help either; try asking a water manager in the Pilbara about Weeli Wolli Creek too and watch the painful reaction). </p>
<p>If you look at developing magnetite resources instead, then increase this environmental intensity even further – more energy, more water, more emissions, and more mine wastes.</p>
<p>On the social front, there is mixed success – while some indigenous groups are signing multi-billion dollar deals (eg. Yamatji Marlpa’s recent deal with Rio Tinto), the “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2011/s3272125.htm">Yindjibarndi versus Fortescue</a>” case has seen incendiary claims about poor negotiations and lack of respect for indigenous communities and their aspirations.</p>
<p>The Saudi oil minister, Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, famously said in the 1970’s that “the Stone Age didn’t end for lack of stone” – and Australia’s iron ore sector is not about to run out of the good stuff any time soon. </p>
<p>Clearly, the big issues remain the environmental and social costs of “quarry Australia” – just imagine, even if only for a minute, what the Pilbara could look like in 2050 and beyond. </p>
<p>If only we could have such brave planning linking mineral resources, conservation, water, pollution or indigenous community development on decadal scales beyond election and corporate cycles. Now that would be awe-inspiring.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/1847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article will outline the iron ore industry in general and the Australian iron ore industry in particular. Since the current age is regarded as 'the Steel Age', this industries' contribution become vital. So underpinning some of those sustainability issues is paramount to appreciate the industry's contribution to Australian economy and so on.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gavin Mudd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s economic future lies underneath our feet. The island continent is blessed with a variety of natural resources but none as plentiful or important as iron ore. Iron is a common element in soils…Gavin Mudd, Senior Lecturer, Monash UniversityMohan Yellishetty, Senior Lecturer (Mining), Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.