tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/recall-35281/articlesRecall – The Conversation2023-12-19T19:40:04Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199952023-12-19T19:40:04Z2023-12-19T19:40:04ZTesla recalls over two million vehicles, but it needs to address confusing marketing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566150/original/file-20231217-29-ey0s6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C4992%2C2986&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Drivers often believe that semi-autonomous systems are more autonomous than they are designed to be.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/tesla-recalls-over-two-million-vehicles-but-it-needs-to-address-confusing-marketing" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>On Dec. 12, the U.S. Department of Transportation issued a recall regarding Autosteer, a feature included in Tesla’s semi-autonomous suite Autopilot, because “<a href="https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2023/RCLRPT-23V838-8276.PDF">there may be an increased risk of a collision</a>.”</p>
<p>The recall, which affects over two million vehicles in the United States, is a watershed moment in modern automotive history, as it affects <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/16/tesla-autopilot-recall-timeline/">nearly every Tesla on the road in the U.S.</a> </p>
<p><a href="https://recalls-rappels.canada.ca/en/alert-recall/transport-canada-recall-2023657-tesla">Transport Canada</a> extended the recall to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tesla-major-recall-us-1.7057694">193,000 Tesla vehicles in Canada</a>.</p>
<p>Tesla says <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_ca/support/vehicle-firmware-prevent-autosteer-misuse">only vehicles in the U.S. and Canada</a> are affected by the recall.</p>
<p>Unlike technologies that can be defined as fully autonomous — like elevators where a user steps in and pushes a button — Autosteer is not an autonomous system, despite what drivers may think.</p>
<p>A 2018 study found that <a href="https://news.thatcham.org/automated-driving-hype-is-dangerously-confusing-drivers-study-reveals/">40 per cent of drivers believed Tesla vehicles are capable of being fully self-driving</a>. A similar study concluded that participants “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1541931218621430">rated [Autopilot] as entailing less responsibility for the human for steering than ‘high automation,’ and it was not different from ‘autonomous’ or ‘self-driving’</a>.”</p>
<p>Instead, Tesla Autopilot falls into the category of <a href="https://www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_202104/">level 2, or semi-autonomous, systems</a>. These system can handle vehicle steering and accelerating but the human driver must stay vigilant at all times.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">PBS covers the safety issues that led to the December recall of Tesla vehicles in the United States and Canada.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Confusing communication</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.uwindsor.ca/kinesiology/human-factors-and-ergonomics">human factors research</a>, believing that a system can do something it can’t is referred to as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1555343417695197"><em>mode confusion</em></a>. Mode confusion not only misleads the user, but also has direct safety implications, as in the <a href="https://www.faa.gov/lessons_learned/transport_airplane/accidents/F-GGED">1992 Air Inter Flight 148 plane crash in France</a>. That situation was the direct result of the pilot operating the aircraft system in a mode different from its original design.</p>
<p>Safety researchers have sounded the alarm about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2018.1561792">risks inherent to semi-autonomous systems</a>. In fully manual and fully autonomous modes, it is clear who’s responsible for driving: the human and the robot driver, respectively. </p>
<p>Semi-autonomous systems represent a grey area. The human driver believes the system is responsible for driving but, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/10/31/tesla-not-guilty-autopilot-crash-trial/">as lawyers representing Tesla have already successfully argued</a>, it is not.</p>
<p>A second important factor is also the role of misleading information. The automotive industry as a whole has, for years, tiptoed around the actual capabilities of autonomous vehicle technology. In 2016, <a href="https://time.com/4431956/mercedes-benz-ad-confusion-self-driving/">Mercedes Benz pulled a TV commercial off the air after criticism that it portrayed unrealistic self-driving capabilities</a>. </p>
<p>More recently, Ashok Elluswamy, director of Autopilot software at Tesla, said <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/17/tesla-engineer-testifies-that-2016-video-promoting-self-driving-was-faked/">the 2016 video promoting its self-driving technology was faked</a>. </p>
<h2>False sense of security</h2>
<p>Thinking that a system is fully autonomous creates a false sense of security that drivers may act on by losing vigilance or disengaging from the task of supervising the system’s functioning. Investigations on prior accidents involving Tesla Autopilot showed that <a href="https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/NR20200225.aspx">drivers’ overrelience on the semi-autonomous system indeed contributed to some reported crashes</a>.</p>
<p>The recall is a logical, albeit long-awaited, effort by transportation agencies to regulate a problem that researchers have attempted to draw attention to for years.</p>
<p>In her 2016 study, Mica Endsley, a pioneer in the research field on user automation, highlighted some <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0018720816681350">potential safety risks of these systems</a>. A more recent study published by my research group also shows <a href="https://redcap.uwindsor.ca/surveys/?__file=Qqg7hnv2gVUqdycyHgfRoTPkG2pDFkAVb527vx5C3bgcv3AzkrRRIktdafb9F5MxDremWhRMZThpXGa8QVfeqxTfEpL4CVg9yNcH&_gl=1*1x3mupb*_ga*MjE2ODQ3OTQ3LjE2OTAzODUzMDY.*_ga_TMHVD0679R*MTcwMjY2NDAyMC4zMy4wLjE3MDI2NjQwMjAuNjAuMC4w">the dangers that operating semi-autonomous systems pose to drivers’ attention</a>.</p>
<p>With the recall, Tesla will be releasing <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_ca/support/vehicle-firmware-prevent-autosteer-misuse">over-the-air software updates</a> that are meant to “further encourage the driver to adhere to their continuous supervisory responsibility whenever Autosteer is engaged.” These may include additional “visual alerts” and other additions to the system to help drivers stay vigilant while Autosteer is engaged. </p>
<p>In all, although this may be the first time regulators strike a direct, concrete blow at Tesla and its marketing, it won’t be the last.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219995/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Biondi receives funding from the Ontario Ministry of Transportation. He consults on Human Factors issues of vehicle automation.</span></em></p>Tesla’s recall of over two million vehicles in the U.S. and Canada is meant to address driver overreliance on the semi-autonomous Autopilot feature.Francesco Biondi, Associate Professor, Human Systems Labs, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1731952021-12-12T14:46:14Z2021-12-12T14:46:14ZParents should do research on toy recalls before buying Christmas gifts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436765/original/file-20211209-188518-160zfpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5455%2C3645&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In the highly competitive toy industry, companies often take too long to issue safety recalls.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Matt Dunham)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/parents-should-do-research-on-toy-recalls-before-buying-christmas-gifts" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>’Tis the season for toys, as children compile their Christmas wish lists with <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/05/skateboards-scooters-help-fuel-19percent-bump-in-first-half-2021-toy-sales-.html">Pokemon or Barbie or Star Wars action figures.</a> The worldwide toy market is worth about US$100 billion <a href="https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5414970/global-toy-market-2021-edition-analysis-by">and the pandemic has seen an increase in toy sales as more kids were stuck at home</a>.</p>
<p>But how safe are toys? And when there is a design or manufacturing defect that could harm children, how do companies respond?</p>
<p>I recently co-authored <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.10.035">a research study that looked at how long it takes toy companies to recall products that pose a safety hazard</a>. Our research suggests that in many cases, recalls for toys that pose serious safety threats often take longer to be issued than for toys that have less serious safety issues.</p>
<h2>Delayed response on recalls</h2>
<p>Several factors seem to play into the delayed response for a company to issue a recall, including potential damage to the firm’s reputation and bottom-line concerns about the negative impact recalls would have on sales.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/30047964">government regulators can order mandatory recalls by firms</a>, companies are also expected to announce what’s known as <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/consumer-product-safety/reports-publications/industry-professionals/recalling-consumer-products-guide-industry.html#a4">voluntary recalls if they become aware of a product defect</a>.</p>
<p>The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission reported that in 2020, <a href="https://www.cpsc.gov/Newsroom/News-Releases/2022/Making-a-List-Checking-it-Twice-Tips-for-Celebrating-Safely-this-Holiday-Season">there were nearly 150,000 toy-related injuries and nine deaths among children ages 14 and younger</a>. Most of the deaths came from children choking on small parts of toys.</p>
<p>From a business perspective, recalls are a crisis event for a company. Firms face a dilemma when recalling defective products that have caused injuries and deaths. Timing decisions on recalls signal the extent of responsibility the firm is willing to assume for the crisis.</p>
<h2>Level of hazard can influence decisions</h2>
<p>Hazard severity across all industries can significantly influence decisions about recalls. For example, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/23/your-money/IHT-tylenol-made-a-hero-of-johnson-johnson-the-recall-that-started.html">while Johnson & Johnson recalled millions of Tylenol bottles within a week in 1982</a> after product tampering resulted in several deaths, <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2010/01/15/news/companies/over_the_counter_medicine_recall/index.htm">the pharmaceutical company took two years to recall products with less severe concerns</a> such as a bad smell.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A family looks at wrapped gifts in front of a Christmas tree" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436772/original/file-20211209-140267-ohe3wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436772/original/file-20211209-140267-ohe3wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436772/original/file-20211209-140267-ohe3wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436772/original/file-20211209-140267-ohe3wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436772/original/file-20211209-140267-ohe3wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436772/original/file-20211209-140267-ohe3wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436772/original/file-20211209-140267-ohe3wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Before buying gifts, parents and grandparents should do research on toy companies to determine if they have a history of recalling faulty products.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Early recalls of defective toys could prevent injuries and deaths. However, from the firm’s point of view, early recalls could suggest to their stakeholders there are systemic problems within the company that could lead to high costs, reputational damage and public backlash.</p>
<p>The toy industry is highly competitive and subject to seasonality — meaning the Christmas shopping period is crucial. Toys also have short life cycles. All these factors place pressure on prices and profit margins of the firms in the industry and those pressures impact how recalls are handled. </p>
<h2>Children are the consumers</h2>
<p>This conflict between public safety and business profits is especially problematic for the toy industry. While the customers are parents or adults, the consumers are children.</p>
<p>Our study looked at toy recalls in the United States over a 30-year period. There were 833 recalls issued by 445 firms from 1988 to 2018. The products include all kinds of children’s toys, including musical toys, activity toys, water toys, dolls and stuffed toys.</p>
<p>There are generally two types of product defects that lead to recalls in the toy industry: problems related to the design of a toy — such as the presence of small and detachable parts like button-eyes and beads, as well as strings or other design flaws that could lead to strangulation — or problems resulting from manufacturing defects, including the presence of banned or unapproved materials like lead paint, faulty assembly or substandard parts that break or crack.</p>
<h2>Shifting the blame</h2>
<p>While companies generally design their own toys, they almost always outsource the manufacturing process — and our research showed whether a hazard was based on a design flaw or manufacturing problem impacted the length of time it took for a company to issue a recall.</p>
<p>Our study indicates that for defective products that posed severe hazards, the time to recall was longer for design-related recalls.</p>
<p>In cases where design defects lead to severe hazards, firms may be less motivated to issue a quick recall because they would prefer a detailed investigation and assessment of accountability to communicate the remedial steps before issuing the recall.</p>
<p>Recalls happen more swiftly when the blame for the defect can be attributed to manufacturing problems, <a href="https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.350583">allowing companies to reduce their reputational damage</a> by riding on consumer impressions that <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-8784.2008.00105.x">overseas manufacturers are mainly responsible for product defects</a> — even though previous research by one of our study’s co-authors, Hari Bapuji of the University of Melbourne, suggested that <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/faulty-designs-responsible-for-75-of-toy-recalls-study-1.650925">faulty designs were responsible for 75 per cent of all toy recalls</a>.</p>
<p>Another surprising finding from our research is how toy companies that have issued previous recalls respond to new defects.</p>
<h2>Reputational risks of recalls</h2>
<p>While it was expected that experienced firms would recall defective products that posed severe hazards faster because they know the process to deal with such failures efficiently — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1509/jm.15.0074">as was suggested in auto recalls</a> — our study found that toy companies that had issued previous recalls took longer to recall toys that posed more severe hazards than those with less serious problems. The reason could be that recalling products that pose a severe hazard to consumers involve higher costs for the firms and potential loss of customers.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1466404263219843073"}"></div></p>
<p>So how can you know if the toys on your children’s Christmas lists are safe?</p>
<p>It’s important for parents to do their due diligence on toy companies by following a firm’s track record of recalls before buying.</p>
<p>Non-profit organizations like <a href="https://uspirgedfund.org/page/usf/list-recalled-toys">the Public Interest Research Group track toy recalls</a>. Consumers can also help by <a href="https://www.saferproducts.gov/IncidentReporting">reporting defective products to regulatory bodies like the Consumer Products Safety Commission</a>.</p>
<p>But our study also suggests that that government regulatory bodies need to step up and tighten regulations to keep dangerous products off our store shelves by requiring toy firms to report their past recalls when reporting new issues with a product.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173195/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Etayankara Muralidharan receives funding from MacEwan University-School of Business. </span></em></p>How safe is the toy you may be buying for someone this Christmas? New research suggests that toy companies often take too long to issue recalls after they become aware of safety hazards.Etayankara Muralidharan, Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of IB, Marketing, Strategy, & Law, MacEwan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1651462021-08-19T13:55:16Z2021-08-19T13:55:16ZThat ‘tip-of-the-tongue’ feeling when a memory is elusive is more likely to happen in groups<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415921/original/file-20210812-17-1xej81i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C11%2C1197%2C760&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The feeling that something is "on the tip of your tongue" but you can't quite remember it may be more indicative of a good memory than a bad one. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What is the baby lion’s name in Disney’s <em>The Lion King</em>? If you feel sure that you know it, and it is on the verge of coming back to you but you can’t quite remember it right now, then you’re experiencing a tip-of-the-tongue feeling. </p>
<p>Tip-of-the-tongue feelings can also occur when people try to remember things together. For instance, a group of friends may simultaneously have the name of a movie’s main actress on the tip of their tongues. </p>
<p>Surprisingly, social aspects of tip-of-the-tongue feelings have been largely neglected by researchers. I recently led a study that found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.704433">tip-of-the-tongue feelings are more likely to occur when people remember together</a> rather than alone.</p>
<h2>I am sure I know it, but …</h2>
<p>On the surface, a tip-of-the-tongue feeling reflects a memory failure — a breakdown happening when searching for a word. But beneath the surface, if you are quite sure you know it, that is because the word is just waiting there … somewhere in your mind. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jarmac.2020.08.013">Some researchers say</a> a tip-of-the-tongue reflects a <em>good</em> memory, not a bad one. </p>
<p>Research has shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-5371(66)80040-3">when struggling with a word on the tip of their tongue</a>, people are quite good at pinpointing the word’s first letter, at spotting the number of syllables in it or at coming up with sound-alike words.</p>
<h2>Clues informing a guess</h2>
<p>According to a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3758/s13421-010-0066-8">leading theory</a>, at the heart of a tip-of-the-tongue feeling is an informed guess, an inference you make about the likelihood of the sought-for word being available in your memory. And to inform your guess, you rely on clues, just as crime scene investigators do. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l8UFnc85-xM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The youthful song of the baby lion in Disney’s <em>The Lion King</em> was <em>I Just Can’t Wait to be King</em>.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Among relevant clues are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1006/jmla.1996.2471">information related</a> to the elusive word, for instance (in the baby lion’s case): His best friend and future mate is named Nala; his youthful song was <em>I Just Can’t Wait to be King</em>. The more clues fuel your guess that the word is available in your memory, the closer you feel it is on the verge of coming back to you, giving rise to a tip-of-the-tongue feeling.</p>
<h2>‘Socially shared’ tip-of-the-tongues</h2>
<p>In the lab, tip-of-the-tongues are elicited by using general knowledge questions or definitions of rare words. But since 1966, all tip-of-the-tongue studies have involved individuals remembering alone. According to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.704433">a survey</a> conducted on Laurentian University campus, 96 per cent of the participants had encountered at least one occasion where two or more people shared a tip-of-the-tongue experience in a small group over the past six months.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.704433">our recently published study</a> “Socially Shared Feelings of Imminent Recall: More Tip-of-the-Tongue States Are Experienced in Small Groups,” my research team presented groups of four people with 80 general knowledge questions (for example, “Which planet is the closest to the sun?”). Participants were prevented from telling others when they were having a tip-of-the-tongue feeling. Each group member independently filled out a response sheet, indicating one of three responses:</p>
<ul>
<li>I know it, here’s the answer; </li>
<li>I don’t know it; or </li>
<li>I have a tip-of-the-tongue. </li>
</ul>
<p>We presented the same set of questions to individuals remembering alone. Remarkably, we found that each group member independently reported, on average, six tip-of-the-tongues, while individuals remembering alone reported, on average, two tip-of-the-tongues. How can we explain this finding?</p>
<h2>Social contagion or informed guess?</h2>
<p>A peculiar feeling may arise when one is experiencing a tip-of-the-tongue next to someone else experiencing one. It is the feeling of having “caught” the tip-of-the-tongue, as if the feeling were contagious. Social contagion of tip-of-the-tongue feelings may arise, for instance, when hearing somebody say, “Oh wait, I know it!” or “What was the name of that movie?”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415926/original/file-20210812-25200-wo059i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four people who all appear to trying to remember something." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415926/original/file-20210812-25200-wo059i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415926/original/file-20210812-25200-wo059i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415926/original/file-20210812-25200-wo059i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415926/original/file-20210812-25200-wo059i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415926/original/file-20210812-25200-wo059i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415926/original/file-20210812-25200-wo059i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415926/original/file-20210812-25200-wo059i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A tip-of-the-tongue feeling can sometimes seem contagious.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But there’s another, alternative explanation for shared tip-of-the-tongues in a group. There are more instances of remembering in several heads than in one. Because of this, people remembering together may entertain the guess that the target word will be easier to remember by a group of people than by a single person. Such a guess may drive a stronger feeling of closeness with the target word, triggering a tip-of-the-tongue feeling in one (or more) people in the group.</p>
<p>A closer look at our results is revealing. Evidence for tip-of-the-tongue contagion is obtained when two or more group members experience a tip-of-the-tongue for the same question (common tip-of-the-tongues), or when group members exchange words. Yet, after removing both common tip-of-the-tongues and those following words (45 per cent of all tip-of-the-tongues), there were still more in group members than in single individuals. </p>
<p>Therefore, even if social contagion is a plausible explanation, it seems that a more powerful one is the informed guess that the word is available there … in somebody’s memory (“If I can’t remember it, they will!”).</p>
<p>Tip-of-the-tongue feelings are highly private personal experiences, but we begin to gain an understanding of their social dynamics. Both possible causes of shared tip-of-the-tongues — social contagion and the “several-heads-are-better-than-one” informed guess — are currently under investigation. </p>
<p>And just for the record, the baby lion’s name is Simba.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165146/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luc Rousseau receives funding from the Canada Foundation for Innovation.</span></em></p>That feeling of ‘I-know-it-but-can’t-quite-remember-it’ has been studied for decades, but there’s a new twist: It’s more common in groups.Luc Rousseau, PhD, professeur agrégé de psychologie et chercheur au Laboratoire de recherche en santé cognitive, Laurentian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1158322019-04-26T10:52:02Z2019-04-26T10:52:02ZRecalls of medical devices and drugs are up - can anyone predict when it will happen next?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270514/original/file-20190423-175507-1wuu4d5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nearly all medical product recalls are voluntarily issued by firms, instead of mandated by the FDA.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rear-view-pharmacist-working-lab-coats-245853028?src=Oz4MHYVncNZdzP0p9H8Rtg-1-18">wavebreakmedia/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>From the <a href="https://kdvr.com/2019/04/20/recall-of-blood-pressure-drug-losartan-expanded/">valsartan blood pressure drug contamination</a> that exposed thousands of patients to cancer-causing impurities, to a <a href="http://fortune.com/2017/08/31/pacemaker-recall-fda/">massive pacemaker recall</a> undertaken to fix a hazardous software bug in half-a-million cardiac devices, health care product quality problems are ever-present and highly dangerous. </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://www.fda.gov/safety/recalls/">medical product recalls</a> – in particular severe, life-threatening <a href="https://pharmaceuticalcommerce.com/manufacturing-and-packaging/product-recall-trend-up-strongly-in-2018/">pharmaceutical drug</a> and <a href="https://www.raps.org/regulatory-focus%E2%84%A2/news-articles/2018/1/device-recalls-in-2017-making-sense-of-the-numbers">medical device</a> recalls – have <a href="https://www.raps.org/regulatory-focus%E2%84%A2/news-articles/2014/9/massive-recall-of-medical-devices-largest-ever-recorded-by-fda">increased steadily over the last decade</a>. </p>
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<p>It is no surprise that medical product recalls are universally negative events. Firms seek to avoid them, customers despise them, and federal regulators are forced to oversee them. They are associated with <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/%7E/media/McKinsey/dotcom/client_service/Public%20Sector/Regulatory%20excellence/The_business_case_for_medical_device_quality.ashx">millions of dollars of unwanted corporate costs and stock price declines</a>, <a href="https://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20110621/NEWS/306219970/device-recall-process-needs-new-procedures-gao-says">along with substantial and costly regulatory oversight each year</a>. </p>
<p>I spent over a decade as a manufacturing manager in Fortune 500 medical device firms, making scores of recall decisions and recommendations – some good decisions, some less so – and the last several years as <a href="https://kelley.iu.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/profile.cshtml?id=GPBALL">an academic researcher committed solely to recall research</a>. My colleagues and I have closely studied what causes defects that lead to recalls, as well as biases that exist in managers’ decisions to recall.</p>
<h2>Excessive cost competition</h2>
<p>In capitalistic markets, competition is viewed as a force for good. Competition can lower costs, increase access, and hopefully improve quality. These benefits attributed to competition explain the steady call for greater access to generic drugs. </p>
<p>While it is seldom discussed in the crowded debate on health care costs, there may be a downside to the never-ending call for cheaper generic drugs and more affordable care.</p>
<p>Research conducted with my colleagues <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jnirMU0AAAAJ&hl=en">Rachna Shah from the University of Minnesota</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=xSt6k5gAAAAJ">Kaitlin Wowak from the University of Notre Dame</a> shows that intense generic drug competition leads to an increase in severely hazardous manufacturing-related drug recalls. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jom.2018.04.003">Our study</a>, published in May 2018, shows that generic drug competition causes firms to cut corners in their manufacturing quality control practices in an effort to remain profitable, leading to an increase in life-threatening drug defects requiring a recall. </p>
<p>One of many examples of this type of problem is the recent <a href="https://www.drugs.com/article/atorvastatin.html">Ranbaxy atorvastatin recall</a>. Lapses in the manufacturing quality control system led to contamination from unapproved raw materials. The generic drug manufacturer agreed to a <a href="https://in.reuters.com/article/ranbaxy-settlement-felony-usa-idINDEE94C0DA20130513">US$500 million government fine</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270311/original/file-20190422-1403-1uncwrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270311/original/file-20190422-1403-1uncwrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270311/original/file-20190422-1403-1uncwrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270311/original/file-20190422-1403-1uncwrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270311/original/file-20190422-1403-1uncwrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270311/original/file-20190422-1403-1uncwrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270311/original/file-20190422-1403-1uncwrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270311/original/file-20190422-1403-1uncwrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Medical product recalls are up over the last decade.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/throwing-away-medecine-trashcan-504336463?src=r4CwiRt-8xS0kYzW4uZW7A-1-3">Atsushi Hirao/shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Familiar FDA inspectors</h2>
<p>One way to help mitigate such unfortunate side effects of competition is through U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulations and quality control practices. </p>
<p>A key tool used by the FDA to improve product quality are plant inspections. FDA plant inspectors visit plants on a two-year rotating cycle. These inspection outcome ratings can be an early warning of future recalls from the plant – if the FDA inspector accurately captures the relevant risks.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2017.0661">In a 2017 study</a> with Shah and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=UBbcB10AAAAJ">Enno Siemsen from the University of Wisconsin-Madison</a>, we found that FDA plant outcome ratings can be used to predict future recalls from products made at that plant. However, this is only true when the inspector has never visited the plant before. </p>
<p>Undue familiarity between the FDA inspectors and plant management weakens the accuracy of the ratings, even after just one repeat inspection. Inspectors become complacent as they become more familiar with the plant and the people who work there. </p>
<p>We found that rotating in a new inspector for each FDA plant inspection would significantly improve the value of these inspections and cost the FDA less than $1 million annually. A small price to pay for medical device safety.</p>
<h2>Managerial biases</h2>
<p>While regulatory oversight may help reduce defective products requiring a recall, another important dimension to the recall phenomenon are the managers who decide to recall a product.</p>
<p>Intriguingly, nearly all medical product recalls are voluntarily issued by firms, instead of mandated by the FDA. The voluntary nature of these recalls gives managers a high level of discretion in the recall decision.</p>
<p>I worked with Shah and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=GJRA-5gAAAAJ">Karen Donohue at the University of Minnesota</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jom.2018.07.003">study managerial biases in recall decisions made by real industry managers</a>.</p>
<p>One bias relates to the physicians who purchase medical devices on behalf of patients. If managers know that their physician customers are likely to detect the defect in the device before using the product on the patient, then managers are surprisingly less likely to recall. They unconsciously trust the physician to screen out detectable defects, obviating the need for a recall.</p>
<p>This bias was unknown to the managers who participated in this study. The firms that we worked with used these results to train decision-makers to be aware of this unwanted bias. </p>
<p>In the same study, we conducted <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/089533005775196732">a behavioral cognition test</a> on managers before they made their recall decision. This three-question test measures whether a person makes decisions based upon either intuition or reflection.</p>
<p>This test was highly explanatory of how a manager made the recall decision. Reflective managers recall much less frequently, as they may tend towards “analysis-paralysis,” seeking excessive amounts of data before choosing to recall. This may explain why, in settings where reflective managers are making recall decisions, firms appear to delay recalls, even when doing so puts customers at an increased risk of harm.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270515/original/file-20190423-175518-oy5vyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270515/original/file-20190423-175518-oy5vyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270515/original/file-20190423-175518-oy5vyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270515/original/file-20190423-175518-oy5vyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270515/original/file-20190423-175518-oy5vyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270515/original/file-20190423-175518-oy5vyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270515/original/file-20190423-175518-oy5vyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270515/original/file-20190423-175518-oy5vyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Physicians sometimes catch a defect in the device early on, before it’s ever used on a patient.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/anesthetic-monitor-shown-high-blood-pressure-1298821795?src=SdZ67vAehQtoANVP9mglsA-1-8">Peter Porrini/shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Other causes</h2>
<p>Several different co-authors and I have other exciting recall studies underway that seek to continue to dissect this important problem, particularly from the perspective of managerial biases. </p>
<p>For example, one working paper finds that medical product firms with boards of directors that have at least one woman on the board make recall decisions much more effectively and faster than firms with all-male boards. </p>
<p>Another working paper finds that new CEOs at consumer products firms appear to scapegoat the previous CEO. New CEOs tend to announce several recalls early in their tenure, when the previous CEO is likely to be blamed for the product quality problems.</p>
<p>Because product recalls are pervasive and often associated with consumer harm, I sincerely hope that rigorous research continues to unravel this complex enigma in an effort to help firms, regulators and consumers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Ball is a member of a multi-university Food and Drug Administration (FDA) federal research grant. The intent of the grant is to assist the FDA in predicting pharmaceutical drug quality risks.</span></em></p>Every year, thousands of medical devices and drugs are recalled in the US. But the decision to recall a flawed product is often left up to the manufacturer.George Ball, Assistant Professor of Operations and Decision Technologies, Kelley School of Business, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/919242018-02-15T12:37:42Z2018-02-15T12:37:42ZZuma era lessons: how democracies can be held hostage by party machinations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206537/original/file-20180215-131003-41tbrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jacob Zuma announces his decision to step down.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="http://ewn.co.za/2018/02/15/must-read-jacob-zuma-s-resignation-address">Jacob Zuma’s late night announcement</a> that he would step down as president of South Africa followed days of tense negotiations within the governing African National Congress (ANC). The Conversation Africa asked academics what lessons can be learnt, and how the ANC can redeem itself in the post-Zuma era.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Is this the biggest political crisis that South Africa has faced since democracy?</strong></p>
<p><em><strong>Vishnu Padayachee, the University of the Witwatersrand:</strong></em> Its equivalent to the recall of President Thabo Mbeki in 2008. For the people of South Africa to have been forced to suffer through this is hard to believe. The crises have lost the country much ground, locally and internationally. </p>
<p><em><strong>Jannie Rossouw, the University of the Witwatersrand:</strong></em> This will surely go down as one of the biggest political crises faced by South Africa in the post apartheid era. The situation became highly slippery as Zuma appeared to be defying calls by his party to resign. International experiences tells us that a stand off like that could easily develop into raging conflict.</p>
<p>Zuma’s expressions during the interview he had with the national broadcaster hours before he finally resigned did not help the situation. In addition to claiming that he did nothing wrong, he seemed to be making veiled threats.</p>
<p><em><strong>Mashupye Maserumule,Tshwane University of Technology:</strong></em> The steps to remove Zuma plunged the country into a political crisis. It exposed the dissonance between political processes of the African National Congress (ANC) as the governing party and those of the state, particularly around the party’s succession battle. </p>
<p>This has been a neglected lacuna, which started to show when Mbeki was recalled. At that time the big question was: what are the implications of the ANC’s concept of “recall” on South Africa’s constitutional democracy? This is because the recall wasn’t congruous with the provisions of the country’s constitution to remove a president. But it was never adequately debated and Zuma’s removal brought back these unresolved issues. </p>
<p><strong>Can the ANC salvage itself?</strong></p>
<p><em><strong>Vishnu Padayachee, the University of the Witwatersrand:</strong></em> For the ANC to salvage itself, a renewal is needed. It has to develop a new culture of inclusive and democratic politics at all levels. To do this, it will have to pay more attention to political education instead of regurgitating the political education of the camps. This is totally inappropriate for the 21st Century. </p>
<p>It must attack corruption with greater vigour and visible energy than it has done in the past. </p>
<p>But it must also attend to the critical tasks of re-igniting growth, creating employment, reducing the income and wealth inequality in addition to prioritising service delivery. For this, the Cyril Ramaphosa-led ANC needs a new progressive macroeconomic policy framework. This must be state led in the first phase to “crowd in” domestic and foreign investment through the opportunities created by rising growth and effective demand. </p>
<p><em><strong>Jannie Rossouw, the University of the Witwatersrand:</strong></em> To salvage itself, the ANC must eradicate corruption and replace corrupt and incompetent cabinet ministers. It must be clear after the replacement of Zuma that the ANC puts the people of South Africa first, rather than the interests of politicians.</p>
<p><em><strong>Mashupye Maserumule, Tshwane University of Technology:</strong></em> Firstly, a governing party in a constitutional democracy needs to have exemplary leadership. </p>
<p>There are several other lessons the ANC must learn for it to emerge from this fiasco. </p>
<p>The first is that its internal political processes have implications on the administration of the state. These should be synchronised with those prescribed in the country’s Constitution. </p>
<p>Secondly, it shouldn’t compromise in its fight against corruption, and should pursue ethical leadership on all levels in the organisation from its branches to its regions, provinces and its national leaders. </p>
<p>Thirdly, the ANC’s integrity commission must start to bite, without fear or favour. It should be well-resourced. In addition, the ANC should invest more in the political education of its cadres.</p>
<p>But lastly, it should also outgrow the nostalgic streak of being a liberation movement and embrace the reality that it is a governing party in a constitutional democracy.</p>
<p><strong>What does this mean for democracy in South Africa?</strong></p>
<p><em><strong>Vishnu Padayachee, the University of the Witwatersrand:</strong></em> South Africa’s hard won democracy has simply become a charade. If democracy is to be strengthened there are several things that have to change: how the President of the republic is elected; how members of parliament are elected and held accountable and how officers of parliament are elected. South Africa also has to find ways of creating new mechanisms for citizen to participate in the democracy between elections. </p>
<p>After 1994 South Africa simply re-positioned itself in the flawed structures of democracy that it inherited. The country should have taken time to re-think its position to ensure a more effective and functioning democracy where the people would come first.</p>
<p><em><strong>Jannie Rossouw, the University of the Witwatersrand:</strong></em> Democracy in South Africa will be stronger. Zuma’s resignation shows that it is possible to remove a corrupt president through constitutional measures.</p>
<p>The problem was that Zuma confused support he had as a result of being in power as personal popularity. This is a mistake many powerful people in politics, government and private business make. It is therefore not surprising that his support in the ANC Parliamentary Caucus slipped quickly once it became clear that his grip on power started slipping.</p>
<p>But the constitutional drama raises questions about the conduct of the ruling party to have kept Zuma in power so long after his corrupt conduct. For this, the ANC owes all South Africans an apology. </p>
<p><em><strong>Mashupye Maserumule, Tshwane University of Technology:</strong></em> The developments show that South Africa’s democracy is vulnerable to manipulation by party political processes. The processes of the leadership succession in the ANC ran roughshod over the supremacy of the Constitution of the country. </p>
<p>But in the end, Zuma was a disaster and the ANC’s decision to ask him to step down was the correct one. Even if Zuma was a good state president who had lost the presidency of his party, he would still have been coerced to resign, as it happened with Thabo Mbeki.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91924/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vishnu Padayachee was a non-executive director of the South African Reserve Bank from 1996-2007. He received numerous research grants from local and international foundations and Councils but none related to research on the subject of monetary policy and central banking.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jannie Rossouw is a NRF C3-rated researcher and receives funding from the NRF.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mashupye Herbert Maserumule received funding previously from the National Research Foundation. He is affiliated to the South African Association of Public Administration and Management(SAAPAM). He is the Chief Editor of the Journal of Public Administration.</span></em></p>There are several steps South Africa’s governing party must take to strengthen democracy now that Jacob Zuma has resigned.Vishnu Padayachee, Distinguished Professor and Derek Schrier and Cecily Cameron Chair in Development Economics, School of Economics and Business Sciences, University of the WitwatersrandJannie Rossouw, Head of School of Economic & Business Sciences, University of the WitwatersrandMashupye Herbert Maserumule, Professor of Public Affairs, Tshwane University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/778252017-06-06T00:25:26Z2017-06-06T00:25:26ZIllusions influence our predictions about how well we’ll remember in the future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171718/original/file-20170531-23531-u3e0ms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">OK, I've got this....</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/illinoisspringfield/11210575433">Illinois Springfield</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every day we make decisions based on how we think our memory works. A student decides how long to study for an exam. A shopper decides whether or not to make a grocery list. An FBI director decides whether to write the contents of a concerning conversation in a memo or to trust he would never forget such critical details.</p>
<p>Yet too often we find ourselves wishing we had studied harder or written down a detail we were previously convinced we would remember. Why does this happen? </p>
<p>The answer may lie in the study of metamemory illusions – situations that lead people to consistently overestimate or underestimate their future memory of something. The way information is presented influences how well people predict they’ll remember it. In our research, we test how subtle cues, such as volume, influence people’s judgments about memory.</p>
<h2>Easy to take in, easy to remember?</h2>
<p>Psychologists have identified several factors that make people incorrectly gauge how good their memory will be. For example, people overestimate their memory for information <a href="https://doi.org/10.3758/PBR.16.3.550">presented at a loud volume</a>. Similarly, people judge information presented in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0013684">very large or very clear font as more memorable</a> than information presented in small or difficult-to-read font.</p>
<p>However, volume, font size and font clarity actually have little to no effect on memory. What each of these factors share is that they presumably make the information easier to process – literally easier to hear or read. This led to the theory that people unknowingly base their memory judgments on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0023719">how easy it was to process the information</a> when they learned it. The idea is that if you don’t have to strain in the first place to read a nicely laid out chunk of text, for instance, you expect that it will be easy to recall later.</p>
<p>It’s not necessarily a bad idea to use ease of processing as a shortcut to determine how well you’re learning. The two often do go hand-in-hand, with many of the factors making something easy to process also related to memory.</p>
<p>For example, when someone reads a book a second time, she can read it faster and with less effort; there’s an increased ease of processing. Repetition – reading the book a second time – also improves memory for the book’s contents. Thus, the increased ease of processing coincides with an increase in memory, in this case. But it’s the repetition and not the ease of processing itself that improved memory.</p>
<p>Likewise, if new details fit with what someone already knows, it makes processing the new information easier and also makes recalling it easier. Thus, ease of learning is often, but not always, a good indicator of future memory. </p>
<h2>Investigating the illusion</h2>
<p>However, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-012-0343-6">recent research challenges the idea</a> that people rely on ease of processing to judge their future memory. Researchers found that many people believe that volume and font size affect memory without actually hearing or reading the words beforehand. According to this view, ease of processing in the moment is not related to memory judgments at all – those judgments simply reflect people’s general beliefs about how memory works. That is, people predict that they will remember more loud words because they believe that volume actually affects memory. </p>
<p>So do people base their memory judgments off of ease of processing or beliefs about memory? To test these two different theories, we devised a study to pit them against each other.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171885/original/file-20170601-25664-180ijxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171885/original/file-20170601-25664-180ijxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171885/original/file-20170601-25664-180ijxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171885/original/file-20170601-25664-180ijxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171885/original/file-20170601-25664-180ijxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171885/original/file-20170601-25664-180ijxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171885/original/file-20170601-25664-180ijxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171885/original/file-20170601-25664-180ijxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">If you crank it up, will you remember it better?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/black-volume-control-knob-closeup-135538982">Alexey Laputin via Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>We told 136 college students they would hear a series of words, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/xlm0000332">some loud, others quiet</a>. Before playing any words, we asked students to guess the percentages of loud and quiet words they would remember. When students indicate they’ll recall more loud words, it suggests a general belief about volume affecting memory.</p>
<p>Then students heard each word, one at a time. Immediately after the actual experience of hearing it (at whichever volume), they rated how likely they were to remember each word. </p>
<p>We found that students who already believed beforehand that loud words would be remembered better fell victim to the illusion: they gave much higher future-recall ratings to each loud word after it was presented. However, many students who did not believe that volume had any effect on memory still fell victim to this illusion – but to a lesser extent. Thus, it appears that people use a combination of both preexisting beliefs and ease of processing when making memory judgments. </p>
<p>So what do our results say about the accuracy of people’s memory predictions?</p>
<p>Understanding that volume itself will not influence memory helps people make realistic predictions. Even if you realize that, though, processing ease still induces an illusion.</p>
<p>Since ease of processing often does indicate better later memory, it’s not completely wrong to rely on it.</p>
<p>But be wary whether the processing ease comes from the information itself, indicating your high level of learning, or comes from arbitrary external factors like volume. If you’re an FBI director, or anyone else needing to remember something really important, take some extra time learning it or write it down, just to be safe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77825/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beatrice Kuhlmann receives funding from the Baden-Wurttemberg Ministry of Arts, Sciences, and Research and the German Research Foundation. Note that this funding is not for her research discussed here. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David J. Frank does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Feel like something will be easy to remember? Your prediction may be influenced by how clearly the information was presented in the first place.David J. Frank, Postdoctoral Scholar in Psychology, Case Western Reserve UniversityBeatrice G. Kuhlmann, Assistant Professor of Cognitive Psychology, University of MannheimLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/759602017-06-05T01:45:23Z2017-06-05T01:45:23ZWorking memory: How you keep things ‘in mind’ over the short term<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171522/original/file-20170530-23699-itx0un.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C181%2C2987%2C2163&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's a crucial cog in the your ability to perform a variety of mental tasks.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/brain-loss-losing-memory-intelligence-due-98211377">Lightspring via Shutterstock.com.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When you need to remember a phone number, a shopping list or a set of instructions, you rely on what psychologists and neuroscientists refer to as working memory. It’s the ability to hold and manipulate information in mind, over brief intervals. It’s for things that are important to you in the present moment, but not 20 years from now.</p>
<p>Researchers believe working memory is central to the functioning of the mind. It correlates with many more general abilities and outcomes – things like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-8869(02)00023-5">intelligence</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17470210500162854">scholastic attainment</a> – and is linked to basic sensory processes.</p>
<p>Given its central role in our mental life, and the fact that we are conscious of at least some of its contents, working memory may become important in our quest to understand consciousness itself. Psychologists and neuroscientists focus on different aspects as they investigate working memory: Psychologists try to map out the functions of the system, while neuroscientists focus more on its neural underpinnings. Here’s a snapshot of where the research stands currently.</p>
<h2>How much working memory do we have?</h2>
<p>Capacity is limited – we can keep only a certain amount of information “in mind” at any one time. But researchers debate the nature of this limit.</p>
<p>Many suggest that working memory can store a <a href="http://memory.psych.missouri.edu/doc/articles/2001/Cowan%20BBS%202001.pdf">limited number of “items” or “chunks” of information</a>. These could be digits, letters, words or other units. Research has shown that the number of bits that can be held in memory can depend on the type of item – flavors of ice cream on offer versus digits of pi. </p>
<p>An alternative theory suggests working memory acts as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nn.3655">continuous resource</a> that’s shared across all remembered information. Depending on your goals, different parts of the remembered information can receive different amounts of resource. Neuroscientists have suggested this resource could be <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2015.06.004">neural activity</a>, with different parts of the remembered information having varying amounts of activity devoted to them, depending on current priorities.</p>
<p>A different theoretical approach instead argues that the capacity limit arises because different <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13423-012-0272-4">items will interfere with each other in memory</a>. </p>
<p>And of course memories decay over time, though rehearsing the information that’s in working memory seems to mitigate that process. What researchers call maintenance rehearsal involves repeating the information mentally without regard to its meaning – for example, going through a grocery list and remembering the items just as words without regard to the meal they will become. </p>
<p>In contrast, elaborative rehearsal involves giving the information meaning and associating it with other information. For instance, mnemonics facilitate elaborative rehearsal by associating the first letter of each of a list of items with some other information that is already stored in memory. It seems only elaborative rehearsal can help consolidate the information from working memory into a more lasting form – called long-term memory.</p>
<p>In the visual domain, <a href="http://gocognitive.net/interviews/rehearsal-visual-spatial-sketchpad">rehearsal may involve eye movements</a>, with visual information being tied to spatial location. In other words, people may look at the location of the remembered information after it has gone in order to remind them of where it was.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171666/original/file-20170531-25652-1y4et61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171666/original/file-20170531-25652-1y4et61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171666/original/file-20170531-25652-1y4et61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171666/original/file-20170531-25652-1y4et61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171666/original/file-20170531-25652-1y4et61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171666/original/file-20170531-25652-1y4et61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171666/original/file-20170531-25652-1y4et61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171666/original/file-20170531-25652-1y4et61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lots of things we need to remember over the short term can soon be forgotten with no ill effect.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/steering-wheel-covered-notes-reminder-errands-445215337">Suzanne Tucker via Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<h2>Working memory versus long-term memory</h2>
<p>Long-term memory is characterized by a much larger storage capacity. The information it holds is also more durable and stable. Long-term memories can contain information about episodes in a person’s life, semantics or knowledge as well as more implicit types of information such as how to use objects or move the body in certain ways (motor skills).</p>
<p>Researchers have long regarded working memory as a <a href="http://gocognitive.net/interviews/how-are-long-term-and-working-memory-related">gateway into long-term storage</a>. Rehearse information in working memory enough and the memory can become more permanent.</p>
<p>Neuroscience makes a clear distinction between the two. It holds that working memory is related to temporary activation of neurons in the brain. In contrast, long-term memory is thought to be related to physical changes to neurons and their connections. This can explain the short-term nature of working memory as well as its greater susceptibility to interruptions or physical shocks.</p>
<h2>How does working memory change over a lifetime?</h2>
<p>Performance on tests of working memory improves throughout childhood. Its capacity is a major driving force of cognitive development. Performance on assessment tests increase steadily <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fnsys.2016.00015">throughout infancy</a>, <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/87565640709336889">childhood and the teenage years</a>. Performance then reaches a peak in young adulthood. On the flip side, working memory is one of the cognitive abilities most sensitive to aging, and performance on <a href="http://www.dana.org/News/Details.aspx?id=43176">these tests declines in old age</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171667/original/file-20170531-25704-1n75kz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171667/original/file-20170531-25704-1n75kz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171667/original/file-20170531-25704-1n75kz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171667/original/file-20170531-25704-1n75kz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171667/original/file-20170531-25704-1n75kz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171667/original/file-20170531-25704-1n75kz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171667/original/file-20170531-25704-1n75kz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171667/original/file-20170531-25704-1n75kz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What was I going to write on my list again?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/memory-disorder-181673666">Image Point Fr via Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>The rise and fall of working memory capacity over a lifespan is thought to be related to the normal development and degradation of the prefrontal cortex in the brain, an area responsible for <a href="http://www.goodtherapy.org/blog/psychpedia/prefrontal-cortex">higher cognitive functions</a>.</p>
<p>We know that damage to the prefrontal cortex causes working memory deficits (along with many other changes). And recordings of neuronal activity in the prefrontal cortex show that <a href="http://www.jneurosci.org/content/16/16/5154">this area is active during the “delay period”</a> between when a stimulus is presented to an observer and when he must make a response – that is, the time during which he’s trying to remember the information.</p>
<p>Several mental illnesses, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.4103/0019-5545.31613">schizophrenia and depression</a>, are associated with decreased functioning of prefrontal cortex, which can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.ajp.2008.07060945">revealed via neuroimaging</a>. For the same reason, these illnesses are also associated with decreased working memory ability. Interestingly, for schizophrenic patients, this deficit appears <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-843X.114.4.599">more marked in visual rather than verbal</a> working memory tasks. In childhood, working memory deficits are linked to <a href="http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/our-research/gathercole/">difficulties in attention, reading and language</a>. </p>
<h2>Working memory and other cognitive functions</h2>
<p>The prefrontal cortex is associated with a wide array of other important functions, including <a href="http://www.goodtherapy.org/blog/psychpedia/prefrontal-cortex">personality, planning and decision-making</a>. Any decrease in the functioning of this area is likely to affect many different aspects of cognition, emotion and behavior.</p>
<p>Critically, many of these prefrontal functions are thought to be intimately linked to, and perhaps dependent on, working memory. For instance, planning and decision-making require us to already have “in mind” the relevant information to formulate a course of action.</p>
<p>A theory of cognitive architecture, called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Workspace_Theory">Global Workspace Theory</a>, relies on working memory. It suggests that information held temporarily “in mind” is part of a “global workspace” in the mind which connects to many other cognitive processes and also determines what we are conscious of in any given moment. Given that this theory suggests working memory determines what we are conscious of, understanding more about it may become an important part of solving the mystery of consciousness.</p>
<h2>Improving your working memory</h2>
<p>There is some evidence that it’s possible to train your working memory using interactive tasks, such as simple games for children that involve memory ability. It has been suggested that this training can help improve scores on other types of tasks, <a href="http://editlib.org/p/36119/">such as those involving vocabulary and mathematics</a>. There is also some evidence that training to beef up working memory can <a href="http://www.apa.org/monitor/sep05/workout.aspx">improve performance for children with specific conditions</a>, such as ADHD. However, research reviews often conclude that benefits are <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0028228">short-lived and specific to the trained task</a>.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the enhancements found in some of these studies could be due to learning how to more efficiently use one’s working memory resources, as opposed to increasing its capacity. The hope for this kind of training is that we can find relatively simple tasks which will both improve performance not just on the task itself but also transfer to a range of other applications.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Burmester does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Both psychologists and neuroscientists are interested in how working memory holds on to items over brief intervals – and are investigating from different angles.Alex Burmester, Research Associate in Perception and Memory, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/775842017-05-16T00:58:02Z2017-05-16T00:58:02ZElectrically stimulating your brain can boost memory – but here’s one reason it doesn’t always work<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169165/original/file-20170512-3682-f4tcye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=290%2C0%2C2350%2C1765&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is electrical pulse to the brain your favorite memory enhancer?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/airmanmagazine/33376636056">U.S. Air Force photo by J.M. Eddins Jr.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first time I heard that shooting electrical currents across your brain can boost learning, I thought it was a joke.</p>
<p>But evidence is mounting. According to a handful of studies, transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS), the poster child of brain stimulation, is a bona fide cognitive booster: By directly tinkering with the brain’s electrical field, some research has found that tDCS <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neulet.2012.03.012">enhances creativity</a>, bolsters <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00221-014-4022-x">spatial</a> and <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2013.04.045">math learning</a> and even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/jocn.2008.20098">language aquisition</a> – sometimes <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2013.04.045">weeks after the initial zap</a>. </p>
<p>For those eager to give their own brains a boost, this is good news. <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/tDCS/">Various communities</a> have sprung up to share tips and tricks on how to test the technique on themselves, often using self-rigged stimulators powered by 9-volt batteries. </p>
<p>Scientists and brain enthusiasts aren’t the only people interested. The military has also been <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1164793/darpa-funds-brain-stimulation-research-to-speed-learning/">eager to support</a> projects involving brain stimulation with the hope that the technology could one day be used to help soldiers suffering from combat-induced memory loss.</p>
<p>But here’s the catch: The end results are inconsistent at best. While some people swear by the positive effects anecdotally, others report nothing but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brs.2014.10.015">a nasty scalp burn</a> from the electrodes.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.brs.2015.01.400">meta-analysis covering over 20 studies</a>, a team from Australia found no significant effects of tDCS on memory. Similar disparities pop up for <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2013.06.007">other brain stimulation techniques</a>. It’s not that brain stimulation isn’t doing anything – it just doesn’t seem to be doing something consistently across a diverse population. So what gives? </p>
<p>It looks like timing is everything. </p>
<h2>When the zap comes is crucial</h2>
<p>We all have good days when your brain feels sharp and bad days when the “brain fog” never lifts. This led scientists to wonder: Because electrical stimulation directly regulates the activity of the brain’s neural networks, what if it gives them a boost when they’re faltering, but conversely disrupts their activity when already performing at peak? </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2017.03.028">a new study</a> published in “Current Biology,” researchers tested the idea using the most direct type of brain stimulation – electrodes implanted into the brain. Compared to tDCS, which delivers currents through electrodes on the scalp, implanted ones allow much higher precision in controlling which brain region to target and when.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169021/original/file-20170511-32610-1f9rj3o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169021/original/file-20170511-32610-1f9rj3o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169021/original/file-20170511-32610-1f9rj3o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169021/original/file-20170511-32610-1f9rj3o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169021/original/file-20170511-32610-1f9rj3o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169021/original/file-20170511-32610-1f9rj3o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169021/original/file-20170511-32610-1f9rj3o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169021/original/file-20170511-32610-1f9rj3o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Blue dots indicate overall electrode placement in the new study from the University of Pennsylvania; the yellow dot (top-right corner) is the electrode used to stimulate the subject’s brain to increase memory performance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://news.upenn.edu/news/penn-researchers-show-brain-stimulation-restores-memory-during-lapses">Joel Stein and Youssef Ezzyat</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The team collaborated with a precious resource: epilepsy patients who already have electrodes implanted into their hippocampi and surrounding areas. These brain regions are crucial for memories about sequences, spaces and life events. The electrodes serve a double purpose: They both record brain activity and deliver electrical pulses. </p>
<p>The researchers monitored the overall brain activity of 102 epilepsy patients as they memorized 25 lists of a dozen unrelated words and tried to recall them later on.</p>
<p>For each word, the researchers used the corresponding brain activity pattern to train a type of software called a classifier. In this way, for each patient the classifier eventually learned what types of brain activity preceded successfully remembering a word, and what predicted failed recall. Using this method, the scientist objectively classified a “foggy” brain state as the pattern of brain activity that preceded an inability to remember the word, while the pattern of activity common before successfully recalling is characteristic of being on the ball.</p>
<p>Next, in the quarter of patients for whom the classifier performed above chance, the researchers zapped their brains as they memorized and recalled a new list of words. As a control, they also measured memory performance without any stimulation, and the patients were asked whether they could tell when the electrodes were on (they couldn’t). </p>
<p>Here’s what they found: when the zap came before a low, foggy brain state, the patients scored roughly 12 to 13 percent higher than usual on the recall task. But if they were already in a high-performance state, quite the opposite occurred. Then the electrical pulse impaired performance by 15 to 20 percent and disrupted the brain’s encoding activity – that is, actually making memories.</p>
<h2>Moving beyond random stimulation</h2>
<p>This study is notably different from those before. Rather than indiscriminately zapping the brain, the researchers showed that the brain state at the time of memory encoding determines whether brain stimulation helps or hinders. It’s an invaluable insight for future studies that try to tease apart the effects of brain stimulation on memory.</p>
<p>The next big challenge is to incorporate these findings into brain stimulation trials, preferably using noninvasive technologies. The finding that brain activity can predict recall is promising and builds upon previous research <a href="https://doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.4039-12.2013">linking brain states to successful learning</a>. These studies may be leveraged to help design “smart” brain stimulators. </p>
<p>For example: Picture a closed-loop system, where a cap embedded with electrodes measures brain activity using EEG or other methods. Then the data go to a control box to determine the brain state. When the controller detects a low functioning state, it signals the tDCS or other stimulator to give a well-timed zap, thus boosting learning without explicit input from the user.</p>
<p>Of course, many questions remain before such a stimulator becomes reality. What are the optimal number and strength of electrical pulses that best bolster learning? Where should we place the electrodes for best effect? And what about unintended consequences? A previous study found that boosting learning may actually <a href="https://doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.4927-12.2013">impair a person’s ability to automate that skill</a> – quickly and effortlessly perform it – later on. What other hidden costs of brain stimulation are we missing?</p>
<p>I’m not sure if I’ll ever be comfortable with the idea of zapping my brain. But this new study and the many others sure to follow give me more confidence: If I do take the leap into electrical memory enhancement, it’ll be based on data, not on anecdotes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shelly Fan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tinkering with the brain’s electrical field shows tantalizing promise for boosting memory, but it doesn’t always work. A new study offers one reason why.Shelly Fan, Postdoctoral Scholar in Neuroscience, University of California, San FranciscoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/725922017-02-19T08:09:24Z2017-02-19T08:09:24ZFord still can repair its brand in South Africa but it needs to act quickly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156955/original/image-20170215-27406-ms2eoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Ford Kuga brand has been blemished in South Africa by its propensity to burst into flames which has caused a recall of over 4000 cars.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There can be no doubt that the Ford Kuga brand in South Africa is in trouble following the model’s propensity to <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/general/150371/another-ford-kuga-bursts-into-flames-the-ninth-car-so-far-in-2017/">burst into flames</a>. Ford South Africa has not helped the situation with its lethargic reaction to what’s now a major crisis. </p>
<p>Some considerable damage has been done but Ford South African can still make amends. It will need to move with lighting speed because the window of opportunity to fix the public relations disaster, won’t stay open for long.</p>
<p>After more than a year of largely avoiding the issue Ford South Africa was finally compelled to announce a recall of more than <a href="http://www.biznews.com/motoring/2017/01/17/ford-recall-kuga-fires/">4000</a> Kuga 1.6-litre models in January 2017. This came after 51 Kugas burst into flames in South Africa as well as a couple in neighbouring countries. <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/2016/12/08/Burnt-to-death-in-a-Ford-Kuga-what-really-happened">One person lost his life</a>. </p>
<p>It didn’t help that the recall only came after the company was put under pressure by the <a href="http://www.702.co.za/articles/238948/consumer-commission-to-make-a-decision-on-the-burning-ford-kuga">National Consumer Commission</a>. Up until that point Ford South Africa had failed to produce a satisfactory response and was facing <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/consumerlive/2017/02/03/Ford-Kuga-sales-drop-by-50">increasing criticism</a>.</p>
<p>The company’s reputation has suffered and its brand is reeling. While it’s too soon to calculate the financial cost, one thing is certain; it’s not too late for Ford South Africa to embark on a massive PR campaign to rebuild trust with consumers and mitigate the damage done to its image.</p>
<h2>Consumers are forgiving</h2>
<p>Consumers are remarkably forgiving. Take the example of Volkswagen. In 2016 the German car giant suffered a major blow to its reputation when the company was found to be cheating in <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34324772">emission tests</a>. Volkswagen was found to have made its cars appear <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2015/09/22/the-tech-behind-how-volkswagen-tricked-emissions-tests/">more environmentally friendly</a> than they were. The defect affected 11 million cars worldwide. </p>
<p>Yet a year later it had bounced back to regain its position as the <a href="http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/01/30/its-official-volkswagen-worlds-largest-automaker-2016-or-maybe-toyota/&refURL=https://www.google.co.za/&referrer=https://www.google.co.za/">world’s biggest car manufacturer</a>, selling more vehicles than Toyota in 2016.</p>
<p>Volkswagen had to deal with <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/20/volkswagen-strikes-deal-to-address-80000-polluting-diesel-vehicles-judge-says.html">car recalls</a>, fines prosecutions and settlements. But it was still able to record an overall 3.8% rise in vehicle sales. </p>
<p>Over the years, there have been many products tainted by scandal and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2013-01-17/the-most-expensive-product-recalls">worldwide recall</a>. Yet companies have managed the crises, sometimes emerging stronger.</p>
<p>The most celebrated case is multinational <a href="http://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2013/11/15/five-key-lessons-from-tylenol-crisis/">Johnson & Johnson</a>. </p>
<h2>How Johnson & Johnson did it</h2>
<p>The company spent millions of dollars recalling the painkilling medication Tylenol http://time.com/3423136/tylenol-deaths-1982/ in the US in 1982 after <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/tylenol-murders-1982/">seven people died</a> following cases of potassium cyanide poisoning. It was revealed that the pills had been tampered with and new tamper proof holders had to be made for the medication. The company destroyed 31 million capsules valued at <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1/01e2330c-faa8-11d8-9a71-00000e2511c8.html?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true#axzz4YkQqqDPb">$100 million</a>.</p>
<p>The way in which Johnson & Johnson dealt with the Tylenol crisis is one of the most widely taught case studies of <a href="http://mallenbaker.net/article/clear-reflection/johnson-johnson-and-tylenol-crisis-management-case-study">effective crises management</a>. </p>
<p>The reasons are quite simple: Johnson & Johnson acted swiftly and decisively, turning its crisis into an opportunity. The company chairman appeared in commercials and did more than 50 interviews. When the new packaging for the medication had been designed he held a <a href="http://www.aerobiologicalengineering.com/wxk116/TylenolMurders/crisis.html">press conference</a> to introduce it. </p>
<p>But the crisis plan Johnson & Johnson’s put into action is widely believed to have saved the day. Tylenol’s <a href="http://mallenbaker.net/article/clear-reflection/johnson-johnson-and-tylenol-crisis-management-case-study">market share went up</a> from 33% before the crisis to 48% days after the relaunch of the medication. </p>
<p>Ford could follow in Johnson & Johnson’s footsteps with an action plan designed along the same lines.</p>
<h2>Ford needs to launch their own crisis plan</h2>
<p>The main action points would be the following. </p>
<p>It’s imperative that the company puts together some kind of war room or operational team to drive a public relations strategy around the Ford Kuga incidents. They need a marketing plan – not to sell more cars, but to restore consumer confidence. They need to appear to be open and honest and more concerned about customers than about the legal implications of the situation. Customer needs should be foregrounded.</p>
<p>Top of their action plan should be the hiring or seconding of a dedicated person to run a nationwide campaign and interact with the public. In addition, they should consider setting up a hotline where people can call in with their concerns and where customers can air their grievances rather than turning to public grievance platforms like <a href="https://www.hellopeter.com/">hello peter</a>.</p>
<p>Ford has provided a customer service number that people can call for information and assistance. But the goodwill of this has been offset by some Ford dealers <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/motoring/151901/ford-kuga-owners-turned-away-by-dealers-when-trying-to-trade-in-their-cars-report/">refusing to help</a> customers as instructed. The company needs to consider setting up dedicated centres where consumers can go with their cars for help and advice.</p>
<p>But it needs to act quickly. The window of opportunity is closing and it’s operating in a difficult economic environment. The latest car sales figures show a 15.3% year-on-year drop in new car sales in South Africa and 2017 is also expected to be tough. </p>
<p>Ford cannot afford to let its reputation be tarnished any further. It’s time to stop the Ford Kuga bleed and to make the most of the small window of opportunity for Ford South Africa to repair its name and reputation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72592/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nothing to disclose </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mlenga Jere does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some considerable damage has been done to the Ford brand as a result of the Kuga fires but Ford South Africa can still make amends.Mlenga Jere, Associate Professor of Marketing, University of Cape TownRaymond van Niekerk, Adjunct Professor, with expertise in Branding, Marketing, Business Strategy, Corporate Citizenship and Social Responsibility, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/719092017-01-29T16:41:10Z2017-01-29T16:41:10ZFord South Africa reacted badly in a crisis: it doesn’t have to be that way<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154389/original/image-20170126-30413-8a7r9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In December 2015, <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/2017/01/24/Ford-broke-law-by-not-informing-consumer-commission-of-Kuga-death-police">Reshall Jimmy</a> burnt to death in his 1.6-litre EcoBoost Ford Kuga in South Africa. Since then a recorded <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/2017/01/19/Another-Kuga-burns1">51 Kugas</a> have caught alight across the country, and two more in Swaziland and Botswana. The Jimmy family recently announced they intend to bring a class <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/01/17/family-of-kuga-fire-victim-to-bring-class-action-suit-against-ford%20despite%20Ford%20denying%20his%20death%20was%20linked%20to%20the%20fault%20http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2017/01/18/ford-insists-that-reshall-jimmys-fiery-death-was-not-linked-to/">action suit</a> against Ford.</p>
<p>Yet it was more than a year after Jimmy’s death that Ford <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/motoring/industry-news/ford-sa-to-finally-recall-fiery-kugas-7418489">recalled</a> 4,556 1.6-litre EcoBoost Kugas in South Africa and more in other southern African countries. Ford took the decision only after the <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/2017/01/24/Ford-broke-law-by-not-informing-consumer-commission-of-Kuga-death-police">intervention</a> of the <a href="http://www.thencc.gov.za/">National Consumer Commission</a>, a statutory body designed to protect consumers in South Africa. At a joint media briefing, Commissioner Ebrahim Mohamed stated that Section 60 of the Consumer Protection Act had been invoked to compel Ford into corrective action.</p>
<p>When confronted with the possibility of having to decide on a recall, manufacturers can respond in one of four ways: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>denial, </p></li>
<li><p>involuntary recall, </p></li>
<li><p>voluntary recall and </p></li>
<li><p>super effort. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>That Ford only acted after the consumer commission got involved suggests that it was in denial. It required a push to at least get to the involuntary recall phase and only after overwhelming <a href="http://www.702.co.za/articles/239364/ford-kuga-owner-says-dealership-don-t-provide-courtesy-cars">negative publicity</a> and memes that spread around social media.</p>
<p>The Ford Kuga case adds to a growing list of similar experiences in the auto industry which seems incapable of learning from its own history. Ford and Toyota have both been involved in messy voluntary recalls where both companies took a long time to act. Evidence of safety issues with the <a href="https://philosophia.uncg.edu/phi361-metivier/module-2-why-does-business-need-ethics/case-the-ford-pinto/">Ford Pinto’s</a> fuel tank first emerged in 1973. It took another five years – and a number of explosions, deaths and court cases – for Ford to recall 1.5 million Pintos built between 1970 and 1976.</p>
<p>Toyota faced complaints about the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/toyota-reaches-12-billion-settlement-to-end-criminal-probe/2014/03/19/5738a3c4-af69-11e3-9627-c65021d6d572_story.html?utm_term=.3af43d08c2cc">sticky accelerators</a> in 2002. It took the company eight years to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/26/business/26toyota.html">recall</a> 7.7 million vehicles after a number of crashes and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/19/business/19autos.html">deaths</a>.</p>
<p>Empirical research into the effect of recalls confirms what rational people know to be true: they’re a good idea. Laval University scholars, Nizar Souiden and Frank Ponsen, <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/full/10.1108/JOCM-04-2015-0063">note</a> that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Voluntary recalls and improvement campaigns can have a positive and significant impact on the manufacturer’s image.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>On top of this, it’s also <a href="https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/%7Emoorman/Marketing-Strategy-Seminar-2015/Session%206/Kalaignanam,%20Kurshwaha,%20and%20Eilert.pdf">self-evidently true</a> that product recalls can reduce the number of injuries and recalls in the future.</p>
<p>It’s therefore clear that the sooner a company reacts to a problem, the less of a negative impact there will be on customers, the brand and the bottom line. And, in addition, that if it makes a super effort to address the problem it can even build brand and customer loyalty like never before.</p>
<p>This is vital in the business of business because, as <a href="https://studentvillage.sv.co.za/careers-news/careers-vega-to-launch-new-degree">Gordon Cook</a>, co-founder of preeminent marketing school Vega, bluntly puts it: “Brands cause business”.</p>
<p>So if the evidence supports the contention that the survival of a business depends on acting quickly in a time of crisis, including instituting swift recalls, why should there be any reason to delay? </p>
<h2>Why firms freeze</h2>
<p>The answer lies partially in the realm of <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JOCM-04-2015-0063">complexity theory</a> – that in the midst of a crisis many factors are at play, all of which have the potential to muddy the analysis and to pull the organisation in different directions. This often results in ill-conceived, naive and ineffective responses. </p>
<p>In the case of Ford, some commentators have even gone so far to say that there was <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/consumerlive/2016/12/22/Ford-confirms-Kuga-fires-confined-to-single-model%E2%80%9A-concedes-engine-overheating-a-possible-cause">no response</a> at all. </p>
<p>But it doesn’t have to be this way. There’s another side to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JOCM-04-2015-0063">complexity theory</a> that holds that organisations with two critical attributes can weather most storms. These are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a strong commitment to doing the right thing for stakeholders, and </p></li>
<li><p>a high readiness are most likely to effectively respond to crises. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>But organisations need both. If they’re lacking in one they are likely to have ineffective responses which in turn will lead to post-crisis losses. This could be in both their competitive edge, including market share, as well as financially if they face penalties or their share price dives.</p>
<p>Singapore Airlines handling of <a href="http://thinkbusiness.nus.edu/article/sia-crisis-response/">Flight SQ006 crash</a> is often cited as a model example of doing the right thing.</p>
<h2>Rebuilding confidence takes time</h2>
<p>The Kuga case is a classic example of being in the news for all the wrong reasons. And only time will tell if it will be able to bounce back from this as Toyota appears to have done. </p>
<p>It will need to rebuild brand equity. This will take time and will involve a great deal more than settling claims. And customers aren’t their only constituency. They must also restore faith with other stakeholders such as the dealer network. The company faces a hard journey ahead. </p>
<p>In the meantime, the Kuga fire story will continue to dominate the headlines. These will only cease being negative and become positive if Ford South Africa truly embraces a stakeholder inclusive approach and views events from a moral perspective. Debates on brand value will come across as off-centre if legitimate and reasonable demands to right a wrong are not addressed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71909/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Owen Skae does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The behavior of Ford South Africa around the fires that have engulfed its 1.6-litre EcoBoost Kugas model is a classic case of how not to handle a corporate crisis.Owen Skae, Associate Professor and Director of Rhodes Business School, Rhodes UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/718922017-01-26T09:39:48Z2017-01-26T09:39:48ZFord South Africa failed to protect its reputation. What it should have done<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/154268/original/image-20170125-23854-1n6dkh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Bogdan Cristel</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ford South Africa has suffered huge damage to its reputation thanks to its poor handling of a crisis involving some of its Kuga cars.</p>
<p>The global car manufacturer’s local operation has been forced to <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/motoring/industry-news/ford-sa-to-finally-recall-fiery-kugas-7418489">recall</a> more than 4 000 Kuga Ecoboost 1.6 litre models manufactured between December 2012 and February 2014. Ford South Africa’s CEO Jeff Nemeth <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/motoring/industry-news/ford-sa-to-finally-recall-fiery-kugas-7418489">announced</a> the recall after over 40 cases of engine fires had been reported. To aggravate the situation, one <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/01/13/kuga-fire-victim-s-family-yet-to-hear-from-ford">death</a> allegedly resulted from a Ford Kuga exploding in December 2015. </p>
<p>There can be little doubt that the <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/2017/01/09/Resale-value-of-Ford-Kuga-plummets-following-fires-fiasco1">Ford Kuga crisis</a> has hurt the company’s reputation, and could even prove fatal to its South African operations. Ford South Africa has been attacked viciously in the media and radio stations have been inundated with calls from <a href="http://www.702.co.za/articles/239364/ford-kuga-owner-says-dealership-don-t-provide-courtesy-cars">angry customers</a> some of whom have resorted to legal action against the company.</p>
<p>Ford South Africa has clearly made some elementary <a href="https://www.infomart.com/4-reputation-management-mistakes-you-cant-afford-to-make/">mistakes</a> in managing the crisis. Companies today recognise the importance of a strong corporate reputation as a critical strategic asset, which translates into a source of competitive advantage. This is why a company’s reputation has become a top priority.</p>
<p>One reason why reputation has been put in the spotlight so much is the huge <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1023409436545200">corporate reputational losses</a> in the last few decades. These include BP’s oil <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2015/04/14/us/gulf-oil-spill-unknowns/">spillage disaster</a> and number of car manufacturers.</p>
<p>Toyota has had to <a href="http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/kbrauer/2014/07/01/why-massive-safety-recall-hurt-toyota-more-than-gm/&refURL=https://www.google.co.za/&referrer=https://www.google.co.za/">recall</a> millions of vehicles worldwide because of various mechanical issues. And in 2015 Volkswagen’s reputation took a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-21/volkswagen-drops-15-after-admitting-u-s-diesel-emissions-cheat">serious knock </a> after it was found to have manipulated its diesel vehicles’ software to pass environmental tests. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-recall-trial-preview-idUSKCN0UP0G620160111">General Motors</a> also suffered reputational damage because of faulty ignition issues resulting in recalls. </p>
<p>So what did Ford South Africa get wrong? What should it have done to protect both its customers and its reputation?</p>
<h2>Proper reputation management</h2>
<p>Proper crisis management is crucial for a company. This is of course particularly true when a bad story breaks and a full-blown crisis is at hand. But in fact crisis management is only effective if there’s already a reputation management process in place. This should be done during the “good times”. </p>
<p>Also, a member of the executive should have been assigned responsibility for the company’s reputation. If this is done properly managing a crisis is always easier as goodwill would already have been built over time.</p>
<p>Once a crisis hits, it is extremely important to act immediately. Three things should be done:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the company must acknowledge the problem immediately,</p></li>
<li><p>it must engage empathetically with customers, and </p></li>
<li><p>it must answer questions from the media as honestly as possible.</p></li>
<li><p>It then needs to plan its next steps – in order of priority.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It seems as if some companies still think that they can keep facts away from the outside world. They think they have time to fix things on their own before deciding to come out in the open. In the old days, companies had the luxury to hide. But this was before the immediacy of the internet and social media arrived.</p>
<h2>A question of trust</h2>
<p>Reputations are built on trust. But in recent years the business world has been shaken by economic disruption, unethical and fraudulent practices, bad publicity and <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2016-06-13/capitalism-crisis">cracks in capitalism’s foundations</a>. People have lost their trust in companies. A climate of anti-business activism, skepticism, pessimism, blame and cynicism has emerged.</p>
<p>So companies’ reputations come under attack more easily. This is fuelled by the media, the internet, social media and pressure groups. Customers are increasingly interested in the way large companies behave and have become more vocal in calling for transparency, accountability and social and environmental responsiveness. </p>
<p>Companies’ reputations <a href="http://www.leader.co.za/article.aspx?s=6&f=1&a=5871">are built more on emotional factors</a> like trust, pride, admiration, liking and a good feeling than on rational factors such as corporate performance or the quality of products and services. </p>
<p>Clients and customers are applying a whole new set of criteria before buying products and services. These include ethics, values and stakeholder democracy. Buying decisions and support of companies <a href="http://customerthink.com/5-factors-that-directly-influence-customer-purchase-decisions/">are influenced</a> by how companies themselves are perceived and <a href="http://www.marketingcharts.com/traditional/corporate-reputation-affects-consumer-purchase-decisions-20826/">to a lesser degree</a> by the perceptions of the companies’ products or services.</p>
<p>The media plays an important role in spreading the word about a company’s reputation. History has shown that companies with favourable reputations are given the “benefit of the doubt” when faced with a sudden crisis.</p>
<p>But reputation isn’t formed just by a company’s PR and branding efforts. Most people form their impressions based on limited information or others’ opinions. Factual information is not enough for customers to form an opinion. </p>
<p>To acquire a favourable brand reputation companies should make sure that they pay attention to a range of dimensions. The most important is that they should try and build a strong emotional bond with their customers and other stakeholders. They can do this by ensuring that the company is admired, trusted and respected and that customers are proud to be associated with it and have a general “good feeling” about it.</p>
<h2>Tangible issues matter too</h2>
<p>Looking after the company’s more tangible issues also plays a role. Companies should pay attention to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>corporate social responsibility – including social engagement and being environmentally friendly, </p></li>
<li><p>a strong corporate performance. This includes strong and visionary leadership, sound financial decisions, strong financial performance, and solid market leadership, </p></li>
<li><p>being a good employer, and </p></li>
<li><p>making sure that customers have a good service experience – both in physical and online spaces. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>But given the scale of the anger and mistrust directed at Ford South Africa it’s clear that even if it had ticked all these boxes, its management of the current crisis has left a lot to be desired. Its reputation is so badly damaged that even a massive PR campaign won’t help it much at this stage. </p>
<p>What is essential, even at this late stage, is direct, honest and authentic communication with customers as well as stakeholders such as dealers, employees, the media and the National Consumer Commission. In particular, customers who have lost confidence in Ford and its products should be treated extremely well and be reassured. The company needs to give people a reason to trust it again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71892/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marietjie Theron-Wepener does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ford South Africa has made some elementary mistakes in handling the crisis caused by fire hazards in its Kuga Ecoboost 1.6 litre model.Marietjie Theron-Wepener, Doctor of business studies, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.