tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/roads-9597/articlesRoads – The Conversation2024-03-28T10:23:50Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2267852024-03-28T10:23:50Z2024-03-28T10:23:50ZBaltimore Key Bridge: how a domino effect brought it down in seconds<p>The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68663071">collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge</a> in Baltimore on 26 March was a shocking and tragic event. Six people remain unaccounted for in the disaster, which saw the world’s third largest continuous truss bridge fall into the Patapsco river.</p>
<p>The cause was Singapore-flagged container ship, the Dali, which veered off course, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/baltimore-bridge-collapse-ship-what-caused-crash-francis-scott-key-dali/">colliding with one of the bridge’s supports</a>, or piers. As the 300 metre-long vessel slammed into the structure, it triggered what’s known as a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123023002177">progressive collapse</a>, where a domino effect leads to the entire structure failing. The bridge, built more than 45 years ago, crashed down into the frigid water at 1:28am eastern standard time (5:28 UTC).</p>
<p>But how could one ship bring down this 366m (1,200 ft) structure within seconds of the collision? </p>
<p>A progressive collapse involves the failure of a single element, like the pier, and results in the sequential failure of other connected components. These can include the metallic truss and the bridge’s deck. This type of collapse can have catastrophic consequences in terms of the risk to human life, as well as to the economy of an area and the local environment. </p>
<p>Although it’s impossible to account for every scenario, bridges can be built with inherent features that enhance their resistance to progressive collapse. Typically, bridges can withstand some degree of damage to a pier or part of the superstructure. The bridge deck can even remain safe for vehicles depending on the circumstances.</p>
<p>However, in the case of the Baltimore bridge collapse, the metallic truss was designed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/2024/03/26/francis-scott-key-bridge-history-baltimore/">as one continuous system</a>. The space between each support, or pier, is known as the truss span. The collapse of one of the piers effectively doubled the truss span to the next support. This dramatic increase in span exerted a much larger force on the remaining truss structure. </p>
<p>While continuous truss systems are favoured because they can redistribute weight in the event of damage, in this case, the remaining truss elements couldn’t withstand all that extra force after the pier failed. </p>
<p>This resulted in the complete collapse of the truss section above the damaged
pier. The collapse didn’t stop there, however. Due to the interconnected nature of the trusses, the remaining section was initially pulled upwards. The sudden release of this tension created a powerful dynamic effect, ultimately causing the entire bridge to collapse.</p>
<h2>Rare event</h2>
<p>It’s certainly not unknown for ships to strike bridge supports. On May 9, 1980, <a href="https://www.fox13news.com/news/sunshine-skyway-bridge-francis-scott-key-baltimore-tampa-st-pete-florida-pinellas-hillsborough-collapse-boat-freighter">a strikingly similar event</a> took place when a freighter <a href="https://eu.jacksonville.com/picture-gallery/news/state/2019/05/08/photos-sunshine-skyway-bridge-disaster/809810007/">collided with a support pier of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge</a> in Tampa Bay, Florida. As a result, the bridge failed over a similar distance as the Baltimore collapse.</p>
<p>But while bridge designers are acutely aware of the potential for collisions, these are – at the same time – rather rare events. The impact forces on a support pier are also highly variable. A higher speed or heavier ship will significantly increase the force on the pier. And higher vessel traffic in the water boosts the probability of a collision.</p>
<p>In addition, the current method used in the US for calculating the collision force of a ship is based on <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.1201/b15621-9/vessel-collision-design-bridges-michael-knott-zolan-prucz">research conducted between 1967 and 1976</a>. However, a different method would have been used for the Key Bridge, which opened in 1977. Needless to say, vessels as heavy and fast as the Dali were not a common sight in 1977. </p>
<p>In fact, the collision force under some scenarios is likely to be <a href="https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/baltimores-366m-span-steel-truss-bridge-collapses-after-being-struck-by-container-ship-26-03-2024/">well beyond the capacity of bridge piers to withstand</a>. This is why bridges have other systems of protection, such as dolphins – a group of pilings situated in the water near a pier, which serve to deflect a vessel or take the energy out of a collision.</p>
<p>There isn’t any information about the system that was installed when the Key Bridge opened in 1977. And some observers have questioned whether the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/26/us/baltimore-key-bridge-structure-support-pier.html">protective barriers around the Baltimore bridge were sufficient</a>.</p>
<p>Regular structural assessments and retrofits are crucial to ensure a bridge meets current safety standards. Concrete and steel, the primary materials in this bridge, are susceptible to deterioration from factors like corrosion and other environmental conditions. </p>
<p>In general, insufficient maintenance or inadequate retrofits can be contributing factors when bridges collapse. However, it must be said there is no evidence this was a factor in this case – and the Key Bridge <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326081517/https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/26/us/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-tuesday/index.html">was said to be “up to code”</a> when the disaster occurred. </p>
<p>There will be more detail to come on this dramatic and tragic event. And the findings will surely inform future approaches to the design and protection of bridges across busy waterways.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226785/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Mohamed Shaheen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’ll need to learn the lessons from this disaster.Dr Mohamed Shaheen, Lecturer in Structural Engineering, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201902024-03-22T12:31:50Z2024-03-22T12:31:50ZThin, bacteria-coated fibers could lead to self-healing concrete that fills in its own cracks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578396/original/file-20240227-26-c98ze5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C5176%2C3437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cracked roads and sidewalks generate big costs for cities. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CaliforniaDroughtRain/f93eda16ae2d49ad8539aaf1ad9eb92c/photo?Query=cracked%20concrete&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=260&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=17&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some say there are two types of concrete – cracked and on the brink of cracking. But what if when concrete cracked, it could heal itself? </p>
<p><a href="https://research.coe.drexel.edu/caee/aim/">We’re part of a team</a> of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Tn72mFcAAAAJ&hl=en">materials</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AtY08c4AAAAJ&hl=en">scientists</a> and microbiologists that has <a href="https://theconversation.com/calcium-munching-bacteria-could-be-a-secret-weapon-against-road-salt-eating-away-at-concrete-roads-and-bridges-113970">harnessed the power of bacteria</a> to create biological fibers that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2023.133765">initial results suggest</a> can heal cracks in concrete. We’re working on a technology that, if we work out the kinks and manage to bring it to the market one day, could extend the life span of concrete.</p>
<h2>Cracking concrete</h2>
<p>Picture a bridge exposed to snow, rain, temperature changes and trucks carrying heavy loads. The concrete on the bridge will gradually develop cracks from stress and wear. Over time, these cracks expand, allowing water and corrosive substances that weaken the concrete to penetrate further down. </p>
<p>At some point, local authorities have to pay for repairs, which are not only expensive but also <a href="https://artbabridgereport.org/reports/2022-ARTBA-Bridge-Report.pdf">disrupt traffic and drain public resources</a>.</p>
<p>Now, consider a medical patient recovering from a severe injury. As the patient’s cells recognize the damage, they release tiny healing agents – like microscopic repair crews. These agents target the wounded area, mending tissues and restoring the cells’ functionality. What if concrete had the same kind of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nmat1934">self-healing ability</a> as human tissue? </p>
<h2>A self-healing concrete</h2>
<p><a href="https://research.coe.drexel.edu/caee/aim/people/">Our team</a> at the <a href="https://research.coe.drexel.edu/caee/aim/">Advanced Infrastructure Materials lab</a> at Drexel University was inspired by self-healing tissue in the human body. We developed an addition to concrete we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2023.133765">call BioFiber</a>.</p>
<p>BioFiber has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2023.133765">three essential functions</a>: It heals itself on its own, it stops cracks from growing wider, and it remains intact inside the concrete when there aren’t any cracks. </p>
<p>Each BioFiber has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2023.133765">three key components</a>: a tough core fiber made of a polymer called polyvinyl alcohol, a porous layer of hydrogel infused with <em><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/immunology-and-microbiology/lysinibacillus-sphaericus">Lysinibacillus sphaericus</a></em> bacteria, and a damage-responsive outer shell. When cracks hit the BioFiber, its outer shell breaks and releases the bacteria into the crack, which starts the self-healing process.</p>
<p>The strong core fibers in BioFiber <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2023.133765">bridge the cracks</a> and stop them from growing wider during the healing process.</p>
<p>Surrounding the core fiber, the hydrogel layer is made up of a mesh of polymer chains at the molecular level that attract water. Their spongelike structure can absorb and hold large volumes of water. During the production process, we add calcium to help the hydrogel solidify. </p>
<p>The hydrogel itself is made up of a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/biochemistry-genetics-and-molecular-biology/alginate">natural polymer found in seaweed called alginate</a>, which has special properties that allow it to trap bacteria. Alginate isn’t toxic and is even safe for biomedical applications such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8886095">drug delivery</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/md21030189">tissue engineering</a>.</p>
<p>The hydrogel <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK556071">houses endospores</a>, which are dormant bacteria. Once the outer shell cracks and the endospores are awakened from their dormant state, they facilitate the self-healing. </p>
<h2>Activating BioFiber</h2>
<p>The endospores need water to activate. Luckily, the middle hydrogel layer absorbs water well. When the concrete cracks, and water from rain, humidity or street runoff seeps in, the spores wake up. </p>
<p>The spores ingest carbon that we specifically add into the concrete mix, as well as calcium in the concrete itself. With these materials, the bacteria facilitates a chemical reaction called microbially induced calcium carbonate precipitation, or MICCP. This reaction creates <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dibe.2024.100351">calcium carbonate crystals</a>, which build up and fill in the cracks in the concrete.</p>
<p>The crystal shape varies, from sphere to needle-shaped, and each shape is strong enough to heal the cracks. We can alter the type of crystals the bacteria produces by changing the pH level, calcium source and type of bacteria.</p>
<p>Concrete acts like a solid, tough substance because it’s a mix of cement, sand, gravel and water. We toss the BioFibers into the mix and spread them out as the concrete is mixed, ensuring they’re evenly distributed throughout the mixture.</p>
<p>Once the self-healing process ends and the bacteria dies, the activated BioFiber is done – it can’t heal anymore. But since the concrete has many BioFibers distributed throughout, another fiber can mend the next crack. At the moment, we do not know how many cracks BioFiber concrete can heal, and we’re conducing more research to figure that out. </p>
<p>To feed the bacteria, we add the amount of food it needs to stay alive and heal the cracks, depending on how many cracks we anticipate them having to fix. When the bacteria runs out of food, the process stops. The bacteria can live for roughly a couple of weeks during the healing process. </p>
<p>While BioFiber shows initial promise, it does have shortcomings, which could make manufacturing it at a larger scale challenging. The manufacturing process and materials used are specialized and not always affordable and practical. While our first tests suggest that BioFiber extends the life span of concrete, we’ll need more testing, including field trials, to verify those early results.</p>
<p>We hope to eventually commercialize and manufacture the fibers at larger production scales, while in the meantime we continue to run tests and study how to improve BioFiber’s self-healing abilities. We’d like to one day get these fibers into roads and sidewalks to potentially prevent cracking in aging concrete.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220190/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohammad Houshmand works for Drexel University. He receives funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yaghoob Farnam receives funding from the National Science Foundation. In addition to his role as an associate professor at Drexel University, he is co-founder and senior technical advisor for SusMaX Inc. </span></em></p>Your skin heals from cuts and scrapes on its own − what if concrete could do that too?Mohammad Houshmand, Ph.D. Candidate in Civil Engineering, Drexel UniversityYaghoob Farnam, Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, Drexel UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2207712024-01-19T13:40:44Z2024-01-19T13:40:44ZOld forests are critically important for slowing climate change and merit immediate protection from logging<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570228/original/file-20240118-23-ojgpd7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C13%2C2323%2C1893&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An old-growth forest of noble fir trees at Marys Peak in Oregon's Coast Range.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Beverly Law</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Forests are an essential part of Earth’s operating system. They reduce the buildup of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion, deforestation and land degradation <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5301/2023">by 30% each year</a>. This slows global temperature increases and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022">resulting changes to the climate</a>. In the U.S., forests take up <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2023-04/US-GHG-Inventory-2023-Main-Text.pdf">12% of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions annually</a> and store the carbon long term in trees and soils.</p>
<p>Mature and old-growth forests, with larger trees than younger forests, play an outsized role in accumulating carbon and <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/mature-and-old-growth-forests-tech.pdf">keeping it out of the atmosphere</a>. These forests are especially <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/mature-and-old-growth-forests-tech.pdf">resistant to wildfires and other natural disturbances</a> as the climate warms.</p>
<p>Most forests in the continental U.S. have been harvested multiple times. Today, just 3.9% of timberlands across the U.S., in public and private hands, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2737/WO-GTR-97">are over 100 years old</a>, and most of these areas hold relatively little carbon compared with their potential. </p>
<p>The Biden administration is moving to <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/04/27/2022-09138/strengthening-the-nations-forests-communities-and-local-economies">improve protection for old-growth and mature forests</a> on federal land, which we see as a welcome step. But this involves regulatory changes that will likely take several years to complete. Meanwhile, existing forest management plans that allow logging of these important old, large trees remain in place.</p>
<p>As scientists who have spent decades studying <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J2KWqAoAAAAJ&hl=en">forest ecosystems</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/William-Moomaw">the effects of climate change</a>, we believe that it is essential to start protecting carbon storage in these forests. In our view, there is ample scientific evidence to justify an immediate moratorium on logging mature and old-growth forests on federal lands. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZdEIqV5QswE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Remote sensing data from space is a new tool for estimating forest growth and density.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Federal action to protect mature and old-growth forests</h2>
<p>A week after his inauguration in 2021, President Joe Biden issued an executive order that set a goal of <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/27/executive-order-on-tackling-the-climate-crisis-at-home-and-abroad/">conserving at least 30%</a> of U.S. lands and waters by 2030 to address what the order called “a profound climate crisis.” In 2022, Biden recognized the climate importance of mature and old-growth forests for a healthy climate and <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/04/27/2022-09138/strengthening-the-nations-forests-communities-and-local-economies">called for conserving them</a> on federal lands.</p>
<p>Most recently, in December 2023, the U.S. Forest Service announced that it was <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/12/20/2023-27875/land-management-plan-direction-for-old-growth-forest-conditions-across-the-national-forest-system">evaluating the effects</a> of amending management plans for 128 U.S. national forests to better protect mature and old-growth stands – the first time any administration has taken this kind of action. </p>
<p>These actions seek to make existing old-growth forests more resilient; preserve ecological benefits that they provide, such as habitat for threatened and endangered species; establish new areas where <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/mature-and-old-growth-forests-tech.pdf">old-growth conditions</a> can develop; and monitor the forests’ condition over time. The amended national forest management plans also would prohibit logging old-growth trees for mainly economic purposes – that is, producing timber. Harvesting trees would be permitted for other reasons, such as thinning to reduce fire severity in hot, dry regions where fires occur more frequently. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570231/original/file-20240118-24-xa1x8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman rests her hand on the trunk of an enormous tree, looking up toward its crown." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570231/original/file-20240118-24-xa1x8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570231/original/file-20240118-24-xa1x8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570231/original/file-20240118-24-xa1x8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570231/original/file-20240118-24-xa1x8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570231/original/file-20240118-24-xa1x8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570231/original/file-20240118-24-xa1x8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570231/original/file-20240118-24-xa1x8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forest biologist Beverly Law with an old-growth Douglas fir in Corvallis, Oregon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Beverly Law</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Remarkably, however, logging is hardly considered in the Forest Service’s <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/mature-and-old-growth-forests-tech.pdf">initial analysis</a>, although studies show that it causes greater carbon losses than wildfires and pest infestations. </p>
<p>In one analysis across 11 western U.S. states, researchers calculated total aboveground tree carbon loss from logging, beetle infestations and fire between 2003 and 2012 and found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00326-0">logging accounted for half of it</a>. Across the states of California, Oregon and Washington, harvest-related carbon emissions between 2001 and 2016 averaged <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab28bb">five times the emissions</a> from wildfires.</p>
<p>A 2016 study found that nationwide, between 2006 and 2010, total carbon emissions from logging were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-016-0066-5">comparable to emissions from all U.S. coal plants</a>, or to direct emissions from the entire building sector. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569933/original/file-20240117-19-wsd8su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Close-up of a furry animal with small rounded ears" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569933/original/file-20240117-19-wsd8su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569933/original/file-20240117-19-wsd8su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569933/original/file-20240117-19-wsd8su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569933/original/file-20240117-19-wsd8su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569933/original/file-20240117-19-wsd8su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569933/original/file-20240117-19-wsd8su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569933/original/file-20240117-19-wsd8su.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pacific fishers (<em>Pekania pennanti</em>) are small carnivores related to minks and otters. They live in forests with large, mixed-tree canopy covers, mainly on federal land on the West Coast. A subpopulation in the southern Sierra Nevada is listed as endangered.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/9PufBo">Pacific Southwest Forest Service, USDA/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Logging pressure</h2>
<p>Federal lands are used for multiple purposes, including biodiversity and water quality protection, recreation, mining, grazing and timber production. Sometimes, these uses can conflict with one another – for example, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R43429">conservation and logging.</a>.</p>
<p>Legal mandates to manage land for multiple uses do not explicitly consider climate change, and federal agencies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3286">have not consistently factored climate change science</a> into their plans. Early in 2023, however, the White House <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/ceq/">Council on Environmental Quality</a> directed federal agencies to consider the effects of climate change when they <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/01/09/2023-00158/national-environmental-policy-act-guidance-on-consideration-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-climate">propose major federal actions</a> that significantly affect the environment. </p>
<p>Multiple large logging projects on public land clearly qualify as major federal actions, but many thousands of acres have been <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/36/220.6">legally exempted</a> from such analysis. </p>
<p>Across the western U.S., <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00326-0">just 20% of relatively high-carbon forests</a>, mostly on federal lands, are protected from logging and mining. A study in the lower 48 states found that 76% of mature and old-growth forests on federal lands <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.979528">are vulnerable to logging</a>. Harvesting these forests would release about <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/land11050721">half of their aboveground tree carbon</a> into the atmosphere within one or two decades. </p>
<p>An analysis of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV000965">152 national forests</a> across North America found that five forests in the Pacific Northwest had the highest carbon densities, but just 10% to 20% of these lands were protected at the highest levels. The majority of national forest area that is mature and old growth is not protected from logging, and <a href="https://www.climate-forests.org/worth-more-standing">current management plans</a> include logging of some of the largest trees still standing. </p>
<h2>Letting old trees grow</h2>
<p>Conserving forests is one of the most effective and lowest-cost options for managing atmospheric carbon dioxide, and mature and old-growth forests do this job most effectively. Protecting and expanding them does not require expensive or complex energy-consuming technologies, unlike some other <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-oil-industrys-pivot-to-carbon-capture-and-storage-while-it-keeps-on-drilling-isnt-a-climate-change-solution-171791">proposed climate solutions</a>.</p>
<p>Allowing mature and old-growth forests to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2019.00027">continue growing</a> will remove from the air and store the largest amount of atmospheric carbon in the critical decades ahead. The sooner logging of these forests ceases, the more climate protection they can provide.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/staff/richard-birdsey/">Richard Birdsey</a>, a former U.S. Forest Service carbon and climate scientist and current senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, contributed to this article.</em></p>
<p><em>This is an update of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-biden-administration-has-called-for-protecting-mature-us-forests-to-slow-climate-change-but-its-still-allowing-them-to-be-logged-199845">an article</a> originally published on March 2, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220771/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beverly Law receives funding from the Conservation Biology Institute. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Moomaw receives funding from the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.
</span></em></p>President Biden has called for protecting large, old trees from logging, but many of them could be cut while the regulatory process grinds forward.Beverly Law, Professor Emeritus of Global Change Biology and Terrestrial Systems Science, Oregon State UniversityWilliam Moomaw, Professor Emeritus of International Environmental Policy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2148192023-11-22T13:17:53Z2023-11-22T13:17:53ZDigitized records from wildlife centers show the most common ways that humans harm wild animals<p>At hundreds of wildlife rehabilitation centers across the U.S., people can learn about wild animals and birds at close range. These sites, which may be run by nonprofits or universities, often feature engaging exhibits, including “ambassador” animals that can’t be released – an owl with a damaged wing, for example, or a fox that was found as a kit and became accustomed to being fed by humans. </p>
<p>What’s less visible are the patients – sick and injured wild animals that have been admitted for treatment.</p>
<p>Each year, people bring hundreds of thousands of sick and injured wild animals to wildlife rehab centers. Someone may find an injured squirrel on the side of the road or notice a robin in their backyard that can’t fly, and then call the center to pick up an animal in distress.</p>
<p>We study <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Tara-Miller-8">ecology</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=XfgB_BUAAAAJ&hl=en">biology</a>, and recently used newly digitized records from wildlife rehabilitation centers to identify the human activities that are most harmful to wildlife. In the largest study of its kind, we reviewed 674,320 records, mostly from 2011 to 2019, from 94 centers to paint a comprehensive picture of threats affecting over 1,000 species across much of the U.S. and Canada. </p>
<p>Our findings, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110295">published in the journal Biological Conservation</a>, point to some strategies for reducing harm to wildlife, especially injuries caused by cars.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SEVqsMsvQws?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Wildlife Rehabilitation Center of Minnesota, the largest independent rehab center in the U.S., treats over 1,000 sick and injured animals yearly.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Tracking the toll</h2>
<p>Humans are responsible for the deaths and injuries of billions of animals every year. Bats and birds fly into buildings, power lines and wind turbines. Domestic cats and dogs kill backyard birds and animals. Development, farming and industry alter or destroy wild animals’ habitats and expose wildlife to toxic substances like lead and pesticides. Extreme weather events linked to climate change, such as flooding and wildfires, can be devastating for wildlife.</p>
<p>Most Americans support <a href="https://www.ifaw.org/press-releases/survey-majority-americans-support-candidate-values-protection-endangered-species">protecting threatened and endangered species</a>, and <a href="https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/survey-most-americans-believe-human-population-driving-wildlife-extinctions-2020-11-12/">recognize that human activities can harm wildlife</a>. But it is surprisingly difficult to determine which activities are most harmful to wildlife and identify effective solutions. </p>
<p>Information from wildlife rehab centers across the U.S. can help fill in that picture. When an animal is brought into one of these centers, a rehabilitator assesses its condition, documents the cause of injury or illness if it can be determined, and then prepares a treatment plan. </p>
<p>Wildlife rehabbers may be veterinarians, veterinary technicians or other staff or volunteers who are certified by state agencies to treat wildlife. They follow professional codes and standards, and sometimes publish research in peer-reviewed journals.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwNiHd5AkSL/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>A growing data pool</h2>
<p>Until recently, most wildlife rehab records existed only in binders and file cabinets. As a result, studies drawing on these records typically used materials from a single location or focused on a particular species, such as bald eagles or foxes. </p>
<p>Recently, though, rehab centers have digitized hundreds of thousands of case records. Shareable digital records can improve wildlife conservation and public health. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.wildlifecenter.org/">Wildlife Center of Virginia</a> has worked with government agencies and other rehab centers to establish the <a href="https://www.wild-one.org/">WILD-ONe database</a> as a tool for assessing trends in wildlife health. This will be an exciting area of research as more records are digitized and shared.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560206/original/file-20231117-19-6un51w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing distribution of wildlife centers that provided data for the study." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560206/original/file-20231117-19-6un51w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560206/original/file-20231117-19-6un51w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560206/original/file-20231117-19-6un51w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560206/original/file-20231117-19-6un51w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560206/original/file-20231117-19-6un51w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560206/original/file-20231117-19-6un51w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560206/original/file-20231117-19-6un51w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Locations in the U.S. and Canada where animals were found (blue dots) before being brought to wildlife rehabilitation centers (red stars) included in Miller et al., 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110295">Miller et al., 2023</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Threats vary by species</h2>
<p>Using this trove of data, we have been exploring patterns of wildlife health across North America. In our study, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110295">identified key threats affecting wildlife</a> by region and for iconic and endangered species. </p>
<p>Overall, 12% of the animals brought to rehab centers during this period were harmed by vehicle collisions – the single largest cause of injury. For <a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Great_Horned_Owl/overview#">great horned owls</a>, which are common across the U.S., cars were the most common cause of admission – possibly because the owls commonly <a href="https://www.fws.gov/story/threats-birds-collisions-road-vehicles">forage at the same height as vehicles</a>, and may feed on road kill. </p>
<p>Other threats reflect various animals’ habitats and life patterns. Window collisions were the most common injury for the <a href="https://www.batcon.org/bat/eptesicus-fuscus/">big brown bat</a>, another species found in many habitats across the U.S. Fishing incidents were the main reason for admission of endangered <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/species/kemps-ridley-turtle">Kemp’s ridley sea turtles</a>, which are found in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Atlantic coast.</p>
<p>Toxic substances and infectious diseases represented just 3.4% of cases, but were important for some species. <a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Bald_Eagle/overview">Bald eagles</a>, for example, were the species most commonly brought to centers with lead poisoning. Eagles and other raptors <a href="https://www.wildlifecenter.org/lead-toxicity-raptors">consume lead ammunition inadvertently</a> when they feed on carcasses left in the wild by hunters. </p>
<p>In southern Florida, hurricanes and floods resulted in spikes in the numbers of animals brought to rehab centers, reflecting the <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-at-work-sloshing-through-marshes-to-see-how-birds-survive-hurricanes-146067">impact of climate-driven extreme weather events on wildlife health</a>. </p>
<p>About one-third of animals in the cases we reviewed were successfully released back to the wild, though this varied greatly among species. For example, 68% of brown pelicans were released, but only 20% of bald eagles. Unfortunately, some 60% of the animals died from their injuries or illnesses, or had to be humanely euthanized because they were unable to recover.</p>
<h2>Spotlighting solutions</h2>
<p>Our results spotlight steps that can help conserve wildlife in the face of these threats. For example, transportation departments can build more <a href="https://interestingengineering.com/lists/29-of-the-most-heartwarming-wildlife-crossings-around-the-world">road crossings for wildlife</a>, such as bridges and underpasses, to help animals avoid being hit by cars.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560059/original/file-20231116-29-cl09dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large wild cat emerges from an underpass beneath a highway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560059/original/file-20231116-29-cl09dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560059/original/file-20231116-29-cl09dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560059/original/file-20231116-29-cl09dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560059/original/file-20231116-29-cl09dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560059/original/file-20231116-29-cl09dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560059/original/file-20231116-29-cl09dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560059/original/file-20231116-29-cl09dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A mountain lion uses an underpass to safely traverse Route 97 near Bend, Oregon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Wildlife management agencies can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-018-1132-x">ban or limit use of ammunition and fishing gear that contain lead</a> to reduce lead poisoning. And governments can <a href="https://www.humanesociety.org/resources/wildlife-disaster-preparedness">incorporate wildlife into disaster management plans</a> to account for surges in wildlife rescues after extreme weather events.</p>
<p>People can also make changes on their own. They can drive more slowly and pay closer attention to wildlife crossing roads, switch their fishing and hunting gear to nonlead alternatives, and <a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/news/how-can-i-keep-birds-from-hitting-my-windows/">put decals or other visual indicators on windows</a> to reduce bat and bird collisions with the glass.</p>
<p>To learn more about animals in your area and ways to protect them, you can <a href="https://www.humanesociety.org/resources/how-find-wildlife-rehabilitator">visit or call your local wildlife rehab center</a>. You can also donate to these centers, which we believe do great work, and are often underfunded.</p>
<p>The scale of threats facing wild animals can seem overwhelming, but wildlife rehabbers show that helping one injured animal at a time can identify ways to save many more animal lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tara K. Miller received funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard B. Primack does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hundreds of wildlife rehabilitation centers across the US and Canada treat sick and injured animals and birds. Digitizing their records is yielding valuable data on human-wildlife encounters.Tara K. Miller, Policy Research Specialist, Repair Lab, University of VirginiaRichard B. Primack, Professor of Biology, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2151312023-11-19T13:00:27Z2023-11-19T13:00:27Z‘Forever contaminant’ road salts pose an icy dilemma: Do we protect drivers or our fresh water?<p>As winter approaches, many communities in Canada and around the world arm themselves against icy roads and sidewalks with a time-honoured ally: road salt. For decades, applying road salt has been regarded as a simple but vital tool in countering the dangers of slippery road conditions, but the downsides of its use are apparent with implications that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-018-4060-2">extend beyond the cold months</a>. </p>
<p>Scientists have long known that the substance which has safeguarded us through the colder months poses a threat to aquatic life and drinking water quality. But now we are finding that this chemical also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157336">disrupts the delicate balance of oxygen and nutrients</a> in our freshwater lakes and ponds. </p>
<p>Road salt, commonly referred to as rock salt, is a mixture primarily composed of sodium chloride (NaCl). It is used to de-ice roads and highways during winter to enhance safety by preventing the formation of ice and reducing slippery conditions. Road salt persists as an environmental contaminant due to its chemical stability and the cyclic nature of its dispersal. </p>
<p>Introduced through activities like road de-icing, salts move from roads to surface water such as streams and lakes, groundwater, remaining indefinitely in the environment without significant degradation. The continual cycling and lack of substantial transformation underscore the long-term impact of sodium chloride as a “forever contaminant.”</p>
<p>With a growing awareness of its ecological repercussions, a critical dilemma emerges. Do we prioritize driver safety or acquatic ecosystem health?</p>
<h2>Negative impacts revisited</h2>
<p>The detrimental effects of road salt on aquatic ecosystems and drinking water supplies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150289">have long been recognized</a>. Its heavy application during winter months leads to a buildup of road salt ions in both soil and water bodies, altering their natural chemical composition. </p>
<p>These elevated salt concentrations can harm freshwater organisms and vegetation, change soil structure, and, when <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166466">seeping into groundwater</a>, compromise the potable water supply of nearby communities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/winter-road-salting-has-year-round-consequences-173621">Winter road salting has year-round consequences</a>
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<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157336">Recent research</a> has shed light on a less conspicuous yet equally significant consequence of road salt usage: its contribution to oxygen depletion in lakes. The occurrence of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007558">very low oxygen concentrations, or hypoxia, in a lake is generally attributed to an excessive input of nutrients, especially that of phosphorus</a>. </p>
<p>Nutrient enrichment can trigger algal blooms that, in turn, lower the oxygen level in the lake’s deeper waters. The continued expansion of hypoxic conditions deteriorates the lake’s water quality and may ultimately cause the die-off of most aquatic life. This nutrient-driven process, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3585-2017">known as eutrophication</a>, is affecting the ecological health of a growing number of lakes around the world.</p>
<h2>Salt and oxygen in water</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16637">Phosphorus</a>, the nutrient frequently implicated in lake eutrophication, plays a multifaceted role in this scenario. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157336">Salinization</a> increases the density of the water reducing the mixing of the lake waters and. Consequently, this reduces the amount of oxygen that reaches the lake’s depths. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/road-salt-makes-winter-driving-safer-but-what-does-it-do-to-the-environment-87860">Road salt makes winter driving safer, but what does it do to the environment?</a>
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<p>Oxygen depletion, paradoxically, favours the remobilization of phosphorus from the sediments accumulating at the bottom of the lake. That is, the sediments become an increasingly important <em>internal</em> source of phosphorus, escalating the nutrient enrichment of the lake. </p>
<p>In that way, salinization — driven by extensive road salt application — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157336">intensifies eutrophication symptoms</a> that are usually associated with phosphorus supplied to lakes from external sources in the surrounding landscape.</p>
<h2>Navigating the saline challenge</h2>
<p>Canada has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151717">proactive in responding</a> to eutrophication. For instance, reduced phosphorus pollution in Lake Erie in the 1980s and 1990s led to significant <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025019">water quality improvements</a>. However, addressing accelerating salinization of lakes requires new thinking and innovative solutions that recognize the complexity of the issue. It’s not just de-icers, such as road salts, that need to be considered. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0019">Other sources of salt</a>, such as agricultural runoff, discharges from water softeners and other domestic activities and drainage from mine waste and geological salt deposits, are all part of the problem. Salinization is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1620211114">threat to water resources globally</a>, not just those of cold regions.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A brief overview of the process of eutrophication, produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Chloride, a key component of road salt, has earned the moniker of a “forever contaminant” <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.242">due to its persistence in soil and water systems</a>. When introduced into the environment, chloride ions readily dissolve into water <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.242">where they tend to remain</a>. </p>
<p>Over time, chloride not only accumulates in surface water bodies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166466">but also in groundwater</a>. In fact, ground (or subsurface) water has been identified as a persistent source of chloride to surface freshwater bodies, especially during the summer months. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://doi.org/10.2166/wqrjc.2011.105">proactive management practices have been introduced</a>, the accumulation of chloride and other problematic <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.2012.00371.x">salt ions</a>, including sodium, in soil and water will require expensive and <a href="https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2009.0108">time-consuming restoration efforts</a>. </p>
<h2>Paving the path to solutions</h2>
<p>To mitigate the impacts of salinization, evidence-based approaches are urgently required. Solutions and policy recommendations must promote the reduction of salt runoff from road salt applications and other sources, and establish effective and comprehensive monitoring programs. </p>
<p>We have much to learn from how we’ve successfully managed excessive nutrient pollution — these lessons can help inform salt management strategies that work hand in hand with water quality and climate change solutions.</p>
<p>One potential alternative to the application of road salts is to use other de-icers. This requires a cautious stance because, as history teaches us, replacing one troublesome chemical with another often comes with unexpected ecological consequences. </p>
<p>Thorough examination and research are vital to ensure that alternatives don’t inadvertently introduce new threats.</p>
<h2>Protecting people and ecosystems</h2>
<p>The stakes are high when it comes to road salts: compromised drinking water, shrinking aquatic habitats and long-term pollution from legacy salt stores in soil and groundwater requiring costly remediation. It’s imperative that research, investment and public awareness converge to address this challenge holistically. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-make-less-harmful-road-salts-were-studying-natural-antifreezes-produced-by-fish-153087">To make less-harmful road salts, we're studying natural antifreezes produced by fish</a>
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<p>The impacts of road salt’s application extend far beyond the icy surfaces it’s intended to protect us from. As winter approaches, policy should work towards protecting our ecosystems and the many services they provide.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jovana received support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Strategic Partnerships Grant (STPGP 521515-18), and the Lake Futures project and Managing Urban Eutrophication Risks under Climate Change project within the Global Water Futures (GWF) program funded by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund (CFREF).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David L Rudolph receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks and the Regional Municipality of Waterloo. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fereidoun received support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Strategic Partnerships Grant (STPGP 521515-18), and the Lake Futures project and Managing Urban Eutrophication Risks under Climate Change project within the Global Water Futures (GWF) program funded by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund (CFREF).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nancy received support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Strategic Partnerships Grant (STPGP 521515-18), and the Lake Futures project and Managing Urban Eutrophication Risks under Climate Change project within the Global Water Futures (GWF) program funded by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund (CFREF).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philippe received support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Strategic Partnerships Grant (STPGP 521515-18), and the Lake Futures project and Managing Urban Eutrophication Risks under Climate Change project within the Global Water Futures (GWF) program funded by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund (CFREF).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jiangyue Ju does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Increasing awareness of the dangers ‘forever chemical’ road salts pose to our fresh water systems highlights the urgent importance of finding new approaches to de-icing our roads.Jovana Radosavljevic, Postdoctoral Fellow, Ecohydrology Research Group, University of WaterlooDavid L Rudolph, Professor of Hydrogeology, Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of WaterlooFereidoun Rezanezhad, Research Associate Professor, Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of WaterlooJiangyue Ju, PhD Student in Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of WaterlooNancy Goucher, Knowledge Mobilization Specialist, University of WaterlooPhilippe Van Cappellen, Professor of Biogeochemistry and Canada Excellence Research Chair Laureate in Ecohydrology, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2154122023-10-25T12:32:06Z2023-10-25T12:32:06ZWhat are roundabouts? A transportation engineer explains the safety benefits of these circular intersections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553088/original/file-20231010-25-nl84ck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C1990%2C1483&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A large roundabout in China.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/traffic-circle-at-night-royalty-free-image/1415700368?phrase=roundabout&adppopup=true">Jiojio/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you live on the East Coast, you may have driven through roundabouts in your neighborhood countless times. Or maybe, if you’re in some parts farther west, you’ve never encountered one of these intersections. But roundabouts, while a relatively new traffic control measure, are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/25/roundabout-revolution-traffic-circles/">catching on across the United States</a>.</p>
<p>Roundabouts, also known as traffic circles or rotaries, are <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/safety/intersection-safety/intersection-types/roundabouts">circular intersections</a> designed to improve traffic flow and safety. They offer several advantages over conventional intersections controlled by traffic signals or stop signs, but by far the most important one is safety. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555403/original/file-20231023-29-a5mlzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bird's-eye view of a roundabout, with a pink circular center with grass in the middle, and four roads converging from north, south, east and west." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555403/original/file-20231023-29-a5mlzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555403/original/file-20231023-29-a5mlzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555403/original/file-20231023-29-a5mlzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555403/original/file-20231023-29-a5mlzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555403/original/file-20231023-29-a5mlzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555403/original/file-20231023-29-a5mlzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555403/original/file-20231023-29-a5mlzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Modern roundabouts can have one or two lanes, and usually have four exit options.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/2020CensusChallenges/f7a70b19f0c9416b85a99e19b874cf1f/photo?Query=roundabout&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=194&currentItemNo=2&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Alex Slitz</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://udayton.edu/engineering/research/research-labs/transportation-group/index.php">I research transportation engineering</a>, particularly traffic safety and traffic operations. <a href="https://udayton.edu/engineering/research/research-labs/transportation-group/research.php">Some of my past studies</a> have examined the safety and operational effects of installing roundabouts at an intersection. I’ve also compared the performance of roundabouts versus stop-controlled intersections. </p>
<h2>A brief history of roundabouts</h2>
<p>As early as the 1700s, some city planners proposed and even constructed circular places, sites where roads converged, like <a href="https://www.discoveringbritain.org/activities/south-west-england/aerial/britain-from-the-air-bath-circus.html">the Circus</a> in Bath, England, and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Place_Charles_de_Gaulle">Place Charles de Gaulle</a> in France. In the U.S., architect Pierre L'Enfant <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/engineering/civil/roundabouts1.htm">built several into his design for Washington, D.C.</a>. These circles were the predecessors to roundabouts.</p>
<p>In 1903, French architect and influential urban planner Eugène Hénard was one of the first people who <a href="https://www.rutgersuniversitypress.org/9780813526911/ways-of-the-world/">introduced the idea</a> of <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/public-roads/autumn-1995/roundabouts-direct-way-safer-highways">moving traffic in a circle</a> to control <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/458975">busy intersections in Paris</a>. </p>
<p>Around the same time, <a href="https://enotrans.org/the-life-of-eno/">William Phelps Eno</a>, an American businessman known as the father of traffic safety and control, also proposed roundabouts to alleviate <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/458975">traffic congestion in New York City</a>. </p>
<p>In the years that followed, a few other cities tried out a roundabout-like design, with <a href="https://www.bridlevehicleleasing.co.uk/blog/why-doesnt-america-have-roundabouts">varying levels of success</a>. These roundabouts didn’t have any sort of standardized design guidelines, and most of them were too large to be effective and efficient, as vehicles would enter at higher speeds without always yielding. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/public-roads/autumn-1995/roundabouts-direct-way-safer-highways">birth of the modern roundabout</a> came with yield-at-entry regulations, adopted in some towns in Great Britain in the 1950s. With yield-at-entry regulations, the vehicles entering the roundabout had to give way to vehicles already circulating in the roundabout. This was made a rule nationwide in the United Kingdom in 1966, then in France in 1983.</p>
<p>Yield-at-entry meant vehicles drove through these modern roundabouts more slowly, and over the years, engineers began adding more features that made them look closer to how roundabouts do now. Many added pedestrian crossings and splitter islands – or raised curbs where vehicles entered and exited – which <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/public-roads/autumn-1995/roundabouts-direct-way-safer-highways">controlled the vehicles’ speeds</a>.</p>
<p>Engineers, planners and decision-makers worldwide noticed that these roundabouts improved traffic flow, reduced congestion and improved safety at intersections. Roundabouts then spread <a href="https://www.bridlevehicleleasing.co.uk/blog/why-doesnt-america-have-roundabouts">throughout Europe and Australia</a>. </p>
<p>Three decades later, modern roundabouts came to North America. The <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/public-roads/autumn-1995">first modern roundabout</a> in the U.S. was built in <a href="https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/highlighting-the-first-modern-roundabouts-in-the-country-during-national-roundabout-week/">Summerlin, on the west side of Las Vegas</a>, in 1990. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Roundabouts require the driver to yield before entering and signal before exiting.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Ever since, the construction of modern roundabouts in the U.S. has picked up steam. There are now about <a href="https://roundabouts.kittelson.com/">10,000 roundabouts in the country</a>. </p>
<h2>Why use roundabouts?</h2>
<p>Roundabouts likely caught on so quickly because they reduce the number of <a href="https://www.transportation.ohio.gov/about-us/basics/roundabouts">potential conflict points</a>. A conflict point at an intersection is a location where the paths of two or more vehicles or road users cross or have the potential to cross. The more conflict points, the more likely vehicles are to crash.</p>
<p>A roundabout has only eight potential conflict points, compared to 32 at <a href="https://www.transportation.ohio.gov/about-us/basics/roundabouts">a conventional four-way intersection</a>. At roundabouts, vehicles don’t cross each other at a right angle, and there are fewer points where vehicles merge or diverge into or away from each other.</p>
<p>The roundabout’s tight circle forces approaching traffic to slow down and yield to circulating traffic, and then move smoothly around the central island. As a result, roundabouts have <a href="https://www.iihs.org/topics/roundabouts#safety-benefits">fewer stop-and-go issues</a>, which reduces fuel consumption and vehicle emissions and allows drivers to perform U-turns more easily. Since traffic flows continuously at lower speeds in a roundabout, this continuous flow minimizes the need for vehicles to stop, which reduces congestion. </p>
<p>The Federal Highway Administration estimates that when a roundabout replaces a stop sign-controlled intersection, it reduces serious and fatal injury crashes <a href="https://www.transportation.ohio.gov/about-us/basics/roundabouts">by 90%</a>, and when it replaces an intersection with a traffic light, it reduces serious and fatal injury crashes <a href="https://www.transportation.ohio.gov/about-us/basics/roundabouts">by nearly 80%</a>.</p>
<h2>Why do some places have more than others?</h2>
<p>Engineers and planners traditionally have installed roundabouts in intersections with <a href="https://www.in.gov/indot/traffic-engineering/roundabouts/">severe congestion or a history of accidents</a>. But, with public support and funding, they can get installed anywhere.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">For some traffic engineers, the sky’s the limit.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But roundabouts aren’t needed in every intersection. In places where congestion isn’t an issue, city planners <a href="https://www.bridlevehicleleasing.co.uk/blog/why-doesnt-america-have-roundabouts">tend not to push for them</a>. For example, while there are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/25/roundabout-revolution-traffic-circles/">around 750 roundabouts</a> in Florida, there are fewer than 50 in <a href="https://www.dot.nd.gov/projects/roundabout/roundabout.htm">North Dakota</a>, <a href="https://www.keloland.com/keloland-com-original/more-roundabouts-possible-in-sioux-falls/">South Dakota</a> and <a href="https://www.dot.state.wy.us/home/news_info/roundabouts.html">Wyoming</a> combined. </p>
<p>Roundabouts have been <a href="https://www.iihs.org/topics/roundabouts#safety-benefits">gaining popularity</a> in the U.S. in recent years, in part because the <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/safety/proven-safety-countermeasures">Federal Highway Administration recommends them</a> as the safest option. Some states, like New York and Virginia, have adopted a “roundabout first” policy, where engineers default to using roundabouts where feasible when building or upgrading intersections. </p>
<p>In 2000, the U.S. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/25/roundabout-revolution-traffic-circles/">only had 356 roundabouts</a>. Over the past two decades, that number has <a href="https://roundabouts.kittelson.com/">grown to over 10,000</a>. Love them or hate them, the roundabout’s widespread adoption suggests that these circular intersections are here to stay.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215412/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deogratias Eustace receives funding from research funding agencies.</span></em></p>Whether you call them rotaries, traffic circles or roundabouts, they offer a safer alternative to the four-way stop. But the modern roundabout has been decades in the making.Deogratias Eustace, Professor of Civil, Environmental and Engineering Mechanics, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2135302023-09-27T20:25:25Z2023-09-27T20:25:25ZTransportation paved the way for colonization — it can also support reconciliation<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/transportation-paved-the-way-for-colonization-it-can-also-support-reconciliation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As Canada marks the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/canadian-heritage/campaigns/national-day-truth-reconciliation.html">National Day for Truth and Reconciliation</a> on Sept. 30, individuals and institutions are being urged to acknowledge the colonial origins of this country, which are rooted in the persecution and genocide of Indigenous nations. </p>
<p>There will be many meaningful conversations about ways we can each engage with and support reconciliation. However, one issue that doesn’t get enough attention is how transportation continues to be a serious challenge for Indigenous communities.</p>
<p>Various aspects of transportation are addressed in the <a href="https://nctr.ca/about/history-of-the-trc/truth-and-reconciliation-commission-of-canada/">Truth and Reconciliation (TRC) Calls to Action</a> and the <a href="https://www.mmiwg-ffada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Calls_for_Justice.pdf">Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls (MMIWG2S+) Calls for Justice</a>, which underscore the root causes of ongoing disparities and violence against Indigenous Peoples in Canada.</p>
<p>As a Red River Métis person and transportation researcher concerned with <a href="http://www.untokening.org/updates/2017/11/11/untokening-10-principles-of-mobility-justice">mobility justice</a>, I collaborate with equity-oriented scholars, advocates, planning professionals, municipalities and transport agencies to address transport inequities in their jurisdictions. </p>
<p>Equity-oriented transportation professionals may embrace an ethos of access to safe and dignified mobility for all, yet our practices don’t recognize how mobility injustices are impacting Indigenous communities and people. This is concerning as it undermines our pursuit of true equity for all and runs the risk of misallocating public funds. Worse, the invisibility of this issue means our communities will endure more harm. </p>
<h2>The roots of transportation injustice</h2>
<p>Transport development physically <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/documentarychannel/docs/colonization-road">paved the way for colonization</a>, and is directly linked to the chronic and <a href="http://www.nccih.ca/docs/determinants/RPT-HealthInequalities-Reading-Wien-EN.pdf">extreme social inequities</a> Indigenous communities face. Colonial city-building is founded on tools like the <a href="https://www.nwac.ca/assets-knowledge-centre/Indian-Act-Said-What-infographic.pdf">Indian Act</a>, specifically designed to <a href="https://redpaper.yellowheadinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/red-paper-report-final.pdf">remove us from our traditional lands</a>, enforce economic and political exclusion as well as spatial segregation, extract resources and control our mobility. Though each jurisdiction in Canada has its own <a href="http://www.scapegoatjournal.org/docs/12-13/SG12-13_74_Cooper_StolenCity.pdf">settler-colonial origin story</a>, the roots of transportation within this are inseparable. </p>
<p>For instance, few transportation professionals will know the history of the Métis as the “<a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/metis-road-allowance-communities">Road Allowance People</a>.” This refers to the period when Métis people <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/unreserved/from-scrip-to-road-allowances-canada-s-complicated-history-with-the-m%C3%A9tis-1.5100375/forced-to-live-on-roadsides-the-dark-history-of-m%C3%A9tis-road-allowances-1.5100660">lived in road allowances</a> — spaces set aside by the Dominion Land Survey for future roads and railway lines — as a means of survival. This was a dark period of extreme poverty and housing insecurity, the impacts of which continue to marginalize and harm Métis people today. </p>
<p>There was also the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/unreserved/exploring-the-past-present-and-future-of-life-in-indigenous-canada-1.3336594/the-pass-system-another-dark-secret-in-canadian-history-1.3338520">Pass System</a>, which confined First Nations people in Western Canada to their reserves, restricting mobility at the discretion of federal Indian Agents. Under this system, police were authorized to arrest and imprison Indigenous people who were found off-reserve without a pass. </p>
<p>This system remained in effect for 60 years until at least the 1940s and <a href="https://pub-newwestcity.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=12354">municipalities capitalized on it</a> to further their development goals.</p>
<h2>Lack of investment</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ccnsa-nccah.ca/docs/emerging/RPT-Built-Environment-Stout-EN.pdf">Systemic under-investment in housing, infrastructure and essential services</a> in Indigenous communities contributes to transport poverty. These issues put Indigenous people at a disproportionate <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0191384">risk of traffic-related injury and death</a>. They also obstruct access to education, health care, employment, food, culture and the land. They impact the ability for Indigenous communities to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-nwt-wildfire-evacuees-1.6948016">respond to emergencies and climate disasters</a>, <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/05/19/Indigenous-People-Barriers-Drivers-Licensing/">complicate the unity of Indigenous families</a> and more. </p>
<p>Some of these impacts may be more acute in rural, remote or isolated communities, but local governments lack an understanding of how urban Indigenous communities experience transportation and mobility. They might often see Indigenous issues as “<a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/oa-edit/10.4324/9781003199816-8/co-creating-cities-deserve-indigenous-knowledge-ginger-gosnell-myers">outside their jurisdiction</a>.” The impacts of this invisibility are likely substantial, given that <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220921/dq220921a-eng.htm">44 per cent of Indigenous people live in Canada’s large urban centres</a>.</p>
<h2>Anti-Indigenous racism</h2>
<p>Indigenous communities experience <a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/Content/Committee/432/SECU/Reports/RP11434998/securp06/securp06-e.pdf">systemic racism in policing</a>, with <a href="https://findingspress.org/article/28345-police-enforcement-of-cycling-offences-a-case-study-in-winnipeg-manitoba">disproportionate amounts of ticketing</a> and overrepresentation in arrests, with rates as high as <a href="https://thediscourse.ca/vancouver-island/systemic-racism-in-policing-across-unceded-territories-in-b-c-demands-reform-says-human-rights-commissioner">10 times that of white people</a> in some areas. </p>
<p>Racial profiling has been linked to abusive arrests and <a href="https://spheresofinfluence.ca/canadas-best-kept-secret-starlight-tours/">Starlight tours</a> — the deadly practice of police driving an Indigenous person to a remote area and leaving them there. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-colonial-racism-fuels-saskatchewans-criminalization-of-indigenous-men-205260">How colonial racism fuels Saskatchewan's criminalization of Indigenous men</a>
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<p>The impacts of colonization are gendered, as evidenced by the disturbing rate of violence against Indigenous women, girls, Two-Spirit, transgender and gender-diverse people. </p>
<p>Transport poverty contributes to this by forcing Indigenous people onto the streets and highways, making them vulnerable to <a href="https://www.nwac.ca/assets-knowledge-centre/Fact_Sheet_Violence_Against_Aboriginal_Women_2022-05-06-192019_swwk.pdf">violence</a> from <a href="https://www.mmiwg-ffada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/P03P03P0201_Toronto_Exhibit_27_Deif.pdf">law enforcement</a>, <a href="https://shiningthespotlight.nwac.ca/issue01/article-05.html">industry workers</a> and <a href="https://greystonebooks.com/products/unbroken">others</a>. The most well-known example is British Columbia’s <a href="https://highwayoftears.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Highway-of-Tears-Symposium-Recommendations-Report-January-2013.pdf">Highway of Tears</a>.</p>
<p>Land dispossession and a lack of adequate housing and transportation options also enable disproportionate rates of <a href="https://nwac.ca/assets-documents/Issues_in_Human_trafficking_and_MMIWG2S.pdf">human trafficking</a> of Indigenous women and girls. There have also been instances of <a href="https://www.aptnnews.ca/national-news/this-was-not-a-snowball-man-who-threw-metal-hitch-at-barbara-kentner-guilty-of-manslaughter/">vehicular violence and identity-based attacks</a> by members of the public against Indigenous people. </p>
<h2>Right to security</h2>
<p>Many of the factors underpinning these issues violate the principles of the <a href="https://social.desa.un.org/issues/indigenous-peoples/united-nations-declaration-on-the-rights-of-indigenous-peoples">United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples</a> (UNDRIP), including the right to a life free from discrimination; to life, physical and mental integrity, liberty and security of person; and the right to improve economic and social conditions.</p>
<p>The urgency of Indigenous mobility injustices cannot be overstated. It’s time for planning professionals, municipalities and transport agencies to recognize that transportation is a reconciliation imperative too. There are things we can do to embed reconciliation in our work more meaningfully:</p>
<p><strong>Be diligent about the truth.</strong> As transport professionals, our work has a direct impact on Indigenous Peoples and their rights. We can be inspired by jurisdictions taking concrete actions like a <a href="https://yearoftruth.ca/">year of truth</a> or those mandating <a href="https://www.edmonton.ca/city_government/initiatives_innovation/community-engagement-indigenous-framework">staff training and education</a> for cultural competency as ways of seeking truth. Such actions are uncovering the ways municipal institutions and structures have dispossessed and violated Indigenous Peoples, and illuminating the path forward.</p>
<p><strong>Create mechanisms for change.</strong> Hire Indigenous planners, create dedicated positions for Indigenous relations, and centre relationships with local and urban Indigenous communities. These have been key to enacting structural change and helping jurisdictions to <a href="https://www.womentransformingcities.org/trc-calls-to-action">make progress on reconciliation</a>, but are also contingent on support from mayors and councils. </p>
<p><strong>Align transportation equity goals with UNDRIP.</strong> Actions should be in line with the TRC Calls to Action and the MMIWG Calls for Justice. </p>
<p><strong>Recognize the actions of Indigenous communities.</strong> A colonial mindset to transportation planning <a href="https://makeshiftmobility.substack.com/p/decolonizing-transportation">assumes communities are incapable of creating solutions to their problems</a>. But we must recognize that <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-safe-ride-service-ikwe-1.4621212">Indigenous communities are already responding</a> to mobility injustices. Governments and professionals must actively listen to Indigenous experiences and recognize how Indigenous people are already filling the gaps.</p>
<p>In doing so, we can broaden our collective perspective on transportation equity, align it with the principles of reconciliation and respond to longstanding calls for justice for Indigenous Peoples.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213530/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jaimy Fischer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Transport development paved the way for colonization and is directly linked to the chronic and extreme social inequities Indigenous communities continue to face to this day.Jaimy Fischer, Post Doctoral Researcher, Human Geography, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2109892023-09-15T06:58:10Z2023-09-15T06:58:10ZWales’ residential speed limit is dropping to 20mph – here’s how it should affect accidents and journey times<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547541/original/file-20230911-21774-vlazi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4608%2C3456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The drop to 20mph in Wales will come into force at midnight on September 17. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/20-mph-speed-limit-sign-on-1166519551">steved_np3/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The default speed limit in residential areas in Wales will be <a href="https://www.gov.wales/introducing-default-20mph-speed-limits">reduced</a> from 30mph to 20mph from midnight on September 17. It will make Wales the first UK nation to adopt a 20mph default urban speed limit. </p>
<p>The new limit will apply to all “restricted” roads, which are roads in built-up areas with high levels of pedestrians. There are some exemptions and local authorities have been able to apply for certain roads to be kept at 30mph.</p>
<p>This change in the law has huge potential public health benefits, including decreasing the number of injuries and deaths from collisions, and may encourage more people to walk and cycle.</p>
<p>However, there is some opposition to the change, with concerns over journey times, additional costs to businesses in deliveries, uncertainties around its effect on vehicle emissions and the potential for increased frustration and road rage.</p>
<p>In bringing forward this change, the Welsh government has used the <a href="https://www.gov.wales/20mph-campaign-promotional-leaflet">strapline</a> “20mph. A bit slower but a whole lot better”, and has led the campaign with the promise of reducing collisions and saving lives. It says that in the time a car travelling at 20mph can stop, a car at 30mph would still be doing 24mph. It goes on to suggest that streets and communities will be safer, meaning people will walk more, improving health and wellbeing.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.wales/state-evidence-20mph-speed-limits-regards-road-safety-active-travel-and-air-pollution-impacts">Evidence</a> suggests the Welsh government is broadly correct. Reducing the default speed limit to 20mph will reduce casualties, providing drivers with more time to react if things go wrong. </p>
<p>Following the implementation of 20mph limits in <a href="https://www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk/phr/XAZI9445/#/abstract">Edinburgh</a>, for example, the number of collisions in one year fell by 40%. There were 23% fewer deaths and serious injuries were reduced by 33%. </p>
<p>Walking and cycling may increase too. We know that higher vehicle speeds are a <a href="https://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/15/6/369.short">barrier</a> to walking and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15568318.2021.1999539">cycling</a>, especially among <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/978-1-83982-744-020211002/full/html">older adults</a>.</p>
<h2>Opposition</h2>
<p>Not everyone in Wales is happy about the drop to 20mph. Several <a href="https://petitions.senedd.wales/petitions/245406">petitions</a> have attempted to stop the change, while the Welsh Conservatives <a href="https://nation.cymru/news/welsh-conservatives-planning-to-force-a-final-vote-on-20mph-speed-limit/">oppose</a> blanket reductions. Reports have also emerged of 20mph signs being <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/people-been-defacing-20mph-signs-27660830">defaced</a>. </p>
<p>A common complaint is that journey times will be slower. But a UK government <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/757307/20mph-headline-report.pdf">report</a> in 2018 looked at 12 case studies in England where 20mph limits were implemented, concluding that journey times increased by only 3% in residential areas and 5% in city centres, adding less than a minute to a five-mile trip.</p>
<p>Also, as traffic flows are often more interrupted in urban areas - with frequent junctions and traffic lights, for example - a slight reduction in maximum permitted speeds may smooth out the traffic flow, reducing perceived delays.</p>
<p>Driver behaviour is, of course, a complex subject. Some drivers simply do not want to slow down and feel they have a right to drive fast. Meanwhile, other drivers feel the pressure to conform with other people’s behaviour, fitting in with the prevailing norms on the road. </p>
<h2>Drivers’ opinions</h2>
<p>Charles was involved in a qualitative <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214140514000383?via%3Dihub">study</a>, published in 2014, that attempted to categorise drivers’ opinions to work out how we might change attitudes and behaviour using the “diffusion of innovation” model, which is a theory that seeks to explain how, why and at what rate new ideas and technology spread. </p>
<p>In the study, drivers were sorted into categories of support for 20mph speed limits based on their answers to a series of questions. One group of “champions” was wholly supportive of 20mph regardless of others around them, even if tailgated or flashed by other vehicles. </p>
<p>In contrast, another group defined as “pragmatists” were more aware of others’ behaviour and were influenced by it, feeling the pressure to speed up. Many in this group had little awareness of speed limits in general, driving much more to the conditions or as others were around them. </p>
<p>And the final group of “opponents” tended to be strongly against speed limits. This tended to be reflected by how they set their own speed limits according to conditions. </p>
<p>The study suggested that champions respond well to information about the benefits of 20mph limits. But pragmatists need to accept that 20mph limits are normal and supported by most other drivers.</p>
<p>We know from the study that there is support for 20mph but also some ambivalence, which can be overcome after a bedding in period. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of a residential street with 20 painted on the road in bold numbers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547756/original/file-20230912-21-fvdp8q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547756/original/file-20230912-21-fvdp8q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547756/original/file-20230912-21-fvdp8q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547756/original/file-20230912-21-fvdp8q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547756/original/file-20230912-21-fvdp8q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547756/original/file-20230912-21-fvdp8q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547756/original/file-20230912-21-fvdp8q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The speed limit in this residential area in Pontypridd is already set at 20mph.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pontypridd-wales-july-2022-aerial-view-2179041355">Ceri Breeze/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The truth is that most people are not opposed to 20mph speed limits, but a sizeable minority are. Welsh government commissioned <a href="https://www.gov.wales/20mph-public-attitudes-research">research</a> suggests 80% were either slightly or strongly in favour of 20mph limits in 2021, but that this fell to <a href="https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2022-11/20mph-public-attitudes-survey-further-research.pdf">63% in 2022</a>. </p>
<p>This is not uncommon, however, as people’s support for change tends to <a href="https://www.gartner.co.uk/en/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle">grow initially</a> but then falls off the closer it gets to implementation. Eventually, people may come around to the idea. </p>
<p>But it needs a government willing to stand its ground when negative public opinion emerges just before implementation, as we are seeing now.</p>
<p>It is time we stopped accepting death and injury in the name of freedom of mobility. Default 20mph speed limits are a good start but they must be accompanied by driver education programmes and police enforcement to be effective. And, of course, non-motoring road users still need more pavements, cycle lanes, safe crossing points and efficient and affordable public transport options.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210989/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Musselwhite receives funding from Health and Care Research Wales.
Charles Musselwhite is Board Member of the Transport and Health Science Group (THSG)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Merriman has received funding for past research from the ESRC, AHRC, British Academy, and European Regional Development Fund. </span></em></p>The Welsh government wants to make residential roads safer and quieter but not everybody agrees with dropping the speed limit from 30mph to 20mph.Charles Musselwhite, Professor of Psychology, Aberystwyth UniversityPeter Merriman, Professor of Human Geography, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112442023-09-05T15:18:51Z2023-09-05T15:18:51ZThe Conservatives have seized on cars as a political wedge – it’s a bet on public turning against climate action<p>“Talking about freedom, sat in <a href="https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1685582472262602752">Margaret Thatcher’s old Rover</a>” read the UK prime minister’s tweet in July 2023. Earlier that day in an interview with The Telegraph newspaper, Rishi Sunak had declared that the Conservative Party he leads are “<a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/07/29/rishi-sunak-on-motorists-side-review-anti-car-policies/">on the side of motorists</a>”, and he spent the days after attacking the opposition Labour Party for its supposed “anti-motorist” stance.</p>
<p>This is not the first time politicians have used cars to sell themselves to voters. In the UK, the most obvious parallel is with the 1997 general election, when both Labour and the Conservatives fought over “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/gb/universitypress/subjects/politics-international-relations/political-economy/automobile-politics-ecology-and-cultural-political-economy?format=PB&isbn=9780521691307">Mondeo man</a>”, the archetype of a lower-middle-class and mostly male voter who both parties deemed important in swaying the outcome of elections. </p>
<p>Naming this category of voters by the car they drive is no accident. Since the early 20th century, the car has symbolised a diverse set of social values: freedom and progress, but also power and status. The cultural and economic importance of cars may have waned, but they remain important enough for politicians to use for electoral gain.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1685582472262602752"}"></div></p>
<p>Sunak has revived this notion of motorists being the voters that really count in a clear signal of the Conservatives’ campaign strategy in the 2024 general election. This throwback to 1997, when the car’s place in society was still relatively secure, is a gamble. And it reveals a new tactic from the political right to maintain relevance as the climate crisis unfolds.</p>
<h2>What’s changed since 1997?</h2>
<p>The mid-1990s saw a wave of protests <a href="https://books.google.je/books?id=qyKCAgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false">against road building</a>. Immediately before the 1997 election, they produced their iconic figure, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/one-week-on-swampy-comes-out-blinking-into-the-television-lights-1285963.html">Swampy</a>, who stayed for a week in an underground tunnel to prevent diggers from accessing the construction site. </p>
<p>In the lead-up to 2023, there has similarly been a lot of direct action by protesters against cars. The first Extinction Rebellion protest entailed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/17/thousands-gather-to-block-london-bridges-in-climate-rebellion">closing five bridges in London</a>. <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/just-stop-oil-protesters-force-parts-of-m25-to-shut-as-activists-scale-motorway-gantries-12740633">Just Stop Oil</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/insulate-britain-blocking-roads-will-alienate-some-people-but-its-still-likely-to-be-effective-168021">Insulate Britain</a> have blocked motorways.</p>
<p>Then, as now, a Conservative government lurching from crisis to crisis has sought popular issues to revive its fortunes. In 1997, the Tories were embroiled in a series of corruption scandals and nurturing an internal war over the EU. The parallels with their situation today require no explanation.</p>
<p>But there are important differences. It’s striking how little reinforcement of the “voters as car drivers” rhetoric there has been since 1997. Both parties have introduced and promoted steadily more ambitious action on climate change, in ways that have had knock-on effects for explicitly pro-car strategies. </p>
<p>Successive governments (both Labour and Conservative) have introduced:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/congestion-charge/">congestion</a>, then emissions, charging, first in London, then in <a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/06/uk-clean-air-zones-an-overview-of-the-countrys-actions/">other cities</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwim96mIlNSAAxUH0wIHHalHCuAQFnoECBoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2Fgovernment%2Fuploads%2Fsystem%2Fuploads%2Fattachment_data%2Ffile%2F918442%2Fcycling-walking-investment-strategy.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2yVET30MuVzb-vjib2rPSk&opi=89978449">cycle networks</a> in most towns and cities</li>
<li>changes to <a href="https://www.cyclinguk.org/safer-highway-code-cyclists">highway code rules</a> that favour pedestrians and cyclists</li>
<li>regenerated <a href="https://uktram.org/systems/">trams</a> in some cities</li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/are-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-greenwashing-heres-what-the-evidence-says-206432">low-traffic neighbourhoods</a>, now the object of much opposition, including from Sunak.</li>
</ul>
<p>Because of these changes, Sunak’s championing of motorists today works differently to the Mondeo man appeal in 1997. Then, both major parties agreed on the social and economic value of the car and sought to sideline and undermine the road protest campaigns. Both shored up this pro-car ideology and competed over who could best serve it. </p>
<h2>Two pro-car parties</h2>
<p>In practice, there remains little difference between the two parties on the question of cars. Both assume that society will continue to be dominated by cars, but both have introduced enough (modest) policies to limit car use and promote alternatives. To actively promote cars now requires a clearer affirmation and creates the possibility of using it as a wedge issue to attack the opposition with. </p>
<p>These attempts are largely ridiculous. Labour is more or less still as pro-car as the Tories (hence the absurdity of trying to claim Labour is on the side of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65839733">Just Stop Oil</a>), and partly because many of the initiatives now being attacked by Sunak were themselves developed and promoted by the Conservatives, most notably the ultra low emissions zone, which was <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-mocked-for-criticising-expansion-of-road-scheme-he-set-up_uk_64a822e7e4b0e87d65542643">Boris Johnson’s idea</a>.</p>
<p>Sunak’s pro-car rhetoric is explicitly nostalgic. To reclaim the Conservatives as the party of motorists, Sunak must return to Margaret Thatcher and sit in her Rover, recalling a golden age that must be restored.</p>
<p>This rhetoric also borrows from populists undermining climate policy more generally, because the political logic of promoting cars is now one of backlash which claims “the people” have lost out from the various anti-car initiatives of both parties. Sunak takes his cues from the Net Zero Scrutiny Group and the All Party Parliamentary Group on Fair Fuel, coalitions of MPs that <a href="https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/the-rise-of-anti-net-zero-populism-in-the-uk-comparing-rhetorical">attack</a> climate action in UK politics.</p>
<p>If the Conservatives continue with this line of attack against Labour through to the next election, that poll will be about the future of Britain’s climate strategy. After all, more ambitious climate action demands <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-is-ten-times-more-important-than-electric-cars-for-reaching-net-zero-cities-157163">reducing reliance on cars</a>. </p>
<p>It is not clear if Sunak’s pro-car nostalgia will work. But whether or not it does will reveal a lot about the necessary conditions for attaining more aggressive climate action, which will inevitably involve changes in how people live their lives – from the transport they use and how often, as well as in many other areas.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211244/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Paterson receives funding from the University of Manchester. He is a member of the Green Party.</span></em></p>Today, as in the past, pro-car sentiment is a backlash against nascent environmental protest.Matthew Paterson, Professor of International Politics, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102632023-08-30T12:15:57Z2023-08-30T12:15:57ZGiraffes range across diverse African habitats − we’re using GPS, satellites and statistics to track and protect them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544746/original/file-20230825-17-am7gat.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3768%2C2345&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An average giraffe has a home range almost as large as Philadelphia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Brown</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nearly 6,000 years ago, our ancestors climbed arid rocky outcrops in what is now the Nigerian Sahara and carved spectacularly intricate, larger-than-life renditions of giraffes into the exposed sandstone. The remarkably detailed Dabous giraffe rock art petroglyphs are among <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/pdf/10.10520/AJA00382353_1067">many ancient petroglyphs featuring giraffes across Africa</a> – a testament to early humans’ fascination with these unique creatures. </p>
<p>We are still <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0199149">captivated by giraffes today</a>, but many of these animals are at risk, largely due to habitat loss and illegal hunting. Some <a href="https://giraffeconservation.org/programmes/giraffe-conservation-status-assessment/">are critically endangered</a>. </p>
<p>To understand how giraffes are faring across Africa, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=f3D2QOcAAAAJ&hl=en">conservation ecologists like me</a> are studying how they interact with their habitats across vast geographic scales. We use space-age technology and advanced statistical approaches that our ancient ancestors could have scarcely imagined to understand how giraffes can better coexist with people. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542627/original/file-20230814-22-vdxtbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Image of a giraffe carved in red rock." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542627/original/file-20230814-22-vdxtbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542627/original/file-20230814-22-vdxtbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542627/original/file-20230814-22-vdxtbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542627/original/file-20230814-22-vdxtbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542627/original/file-20230814-22-vdxtbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542627/original/file-20230814-22-vdxtbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542627/original/file-20230814-22-vdxtbu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Giraffes are featured prominently in ancient petroglyphs across Africa, such as this one in Twyfelfontein, Namibia, which dates back thousands of years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Brown</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Many habitats and challenges</h2>
<p>Giraffes may all look similar to the casual viewer, but in fact there are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2021.04.033">four distinct species</a>. By our best estimates, there are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-821139-7.00139-2">roughly 117,000 giraffes remaining in the wild</a>, living in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/mam.12165">21 African countries</a>. </p>
<p>Across this huge expanse, giraffes make their homes in many different environments with varied levels of human influence. For example, in the relatively arid Sahel region of Niger, they live among communal farmers entirely outside of formally protected areas. In contrast, along the Nile in Uganda’s national parks, they browse through lush savannas that are formally protected by dedicated rangers. </p>
<p>Each of these areas has unique bioclimatic conditions and conservation philosophies. There is <a href="https://giraffeconservation.org/programmes/conservation-strategies/">no one-size-fits-all approach</a> for protecting giraffe habitats and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10871209.2021.1885768">promoting coexistence with people</a>. </p>
<p>Researchers are taking advantage of these diverse conditions to learn how giraffes move throughout this range. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.0912">In a recently published paper</a>, I worked with colleagues from academia and conservation organizations to conduct the largest ever tracking study to better understand how and why giraffes move at large scales. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542628/original/file-20230814-24-pw6hay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four images of giraffes in diverse African settings." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542628/original/file-20230814-24-pw6hay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542628/original/file-20230814-24-pw6hay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542628/original/file-20230814-24-pw6hay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542628/original/file-20230814-24-pw6hay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542628/original/file-20230814-24-pw6hay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542628/original/file-20230814-24-pw6hay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542628/original/file-20230814-24-pw6hay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The four species of giraffes inhabit remarkably different habitats across Africa, from lush savannas to desert.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Brown</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Tracking wide-ranging animals</h2>
<p>Over the past decade, our collaborative conservation research team, spearheaded by the <a href="https://giraffeconservation.org/">Giraffe Conservation Foundation</a>, has embarked on an ambitious pan-African giraffe-tracking study to better understand giraffes’ movements across these diverse landscapes. </p>
<p>Each tracking operation contributes to local studies by telling us something interesting about giraffe behavior. For example, we published the first description of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00524">partial migration in a Ugandan giraffe population</a>, showing that giraffes can have complicated seasonal movements. </p>
<p>These studies also are important for guiding local management of giraffes. Partnering with organizations like <a href="https://www.earthranger.com/">EarthRanger</a>, which develops software to support conservation initiatives, we have pioneered the use of animal movement data to inform active conservation management. </p>
<p>We share giraffe location data in real time with rangers in protected areas to guide day-to-day conservation actions. As an example, we run continuous analytics on the giraffe data that alert teams on the ground when a giraffe stops moving or leaves the boundaries of a national park. With this information, teams can follow up quickly and address risks, such as when giraffes might be straying into dangerous areas.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">In October 2021, conservation scientists and local wildlife officials translocated 10 South African giraffes over 1,600 miles (2,600 kilometers) from South Africa to Malawi. There they joined 13 giraffes already in Majete Wildlife Reserve, helping to expand the group into a sustainable population.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To look at these patterns at a larger scale in our recent study, we analyzed GPS tracking data from 148 giraffes, representing all four species from across 10 countries. We wanted to understand how giraffes may change their movements in response to human pressures and the availability of vegetation.</p>
<p>We used environmental data from satellite imagery, linking the giraffes’ locations to the exact conditions that the animals were moving through. Since the work drew from information collected across Africa through different GPS devices, we developed statistical techniques to harmonize the datasets and make the results directly comparable across ecosystems. </p>
<p>Overall, we found that giraffes cover impressively large areas. On average, each animal has a home range of about 140 square miles (360 square kilometers) – <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/philadelphiacitypennsylvania/PST045222">nearly equivalent to the surface area of Philadelphia</a> – and travels about 8.5 miles (14 kilometers) every day. One of the biggest movers in our study, a female northern giraffe in Niger that navigated among communities raising livestock in the dry Sahel, covered a home range of nearly 1,500 square miles (3,860 square kilometers) – larger than the <a href="https://www.ri.gov/facts/history.php">land area of Rhode Island</a>. </p>
<p>Giraffes’ movements changed significantly based on the availability of woody vegetation and the level of human presence. Those in areas with plenty of woody vegetation didn’t cover as much ground as their counterparts in more barren zones, since the former had most of the resources they needed close by. Giraffes also tended to move less in places with significant human development – probably because of man-made barriers to their movements, like settlements, fences and roads.</p>
<p>In mixed areas with some development and some open spaces, we observed that giraffes covered more ground as they navigated these patchy environments. They traveled faster and covered larger areas when they were moving between resource-rich zones and more heavily developed areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540456/original/file-20230801-21-xj7o8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two giraffes at the edge of a road watch a car pass." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540456/original/file-20230801-21-xj7o8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540456/original/file-20230801-21-xj7o8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540456/original/file-20230801-21-xj7o8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540456/original/file-20230801-21-xj7o8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540456/original/file-20230801-21-xj7o8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540456/original/file-20230801-21-xj7o8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540456/original/file-20230801-21-xj7o8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Across their range, giraffes are navigating increasingly developed landscapes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Brown, GCF</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Giraffe movements inform conservation</h2>
<p>Understanding how giraffes respond to changes in environmental conditions is critical for their conservation. Climate change is making the availability of vegetation less predictable, and human populations in these areas are continuing to grow. Conservation strategies will need to account for giraffes’ changing movements as the animals respond to these shifts. </p>
<p>It also is important to develop principles for giraffe movement so that we can better predict how they might move in new environments. Conservation groups and governments are increasingly using <a href="https://giraffeconservation.org/programmes/conservation-translocations/">conservation translocations</a> – capturing wild giraffes and moving them to new habitats – as a tool to reestablish populations in areas where giraffes had previously become extinct. </p>
<p>Our movement data from giraffes across Africa is casting new light on their responses to different conditions and providing important information for conserving these iconic animals in a rapidly changing world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Brown works for the Giraffe Conservation Foundation and is an affiliated researcher for the Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute. He receives funding from the Giraffe Conservation Foundation and its many supporters and is affiliated with the Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute.</span></em></p>The largest ever giraffe tracking study shows how these massive animals are responding to human pressures across many different habitats throughout Africa.Michael Brown, Conservation Science Fellow, Smithsonian InstitutionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2106962023-08-01T00:40:02Z2023-08-01T00:40:02Z70 years of road-based policies created today’s problems – does National’s transport plan add up?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540309/original/file-20230731-255453-hk7shy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5570%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The old joke about “just one more lane” being all that’s needed to solve traffic congestion has been heard a few times since the National Party released its <a href="https://www.national.org.nz/speech_national_s_transport_for_the_future_plan">transport policy</a> this week.</p>
<p>The plan is nothing if not ambitious: more and bigger roads worth nearly NZ$25 billion over ten years, including a four-lane motorway from Whangārei to Tauranga at a stated cost of $6 billion.</p>
<p>That might sound like a lot, with the cost per kilometre of road being about $20 million. But recent big road projects suggest it could be a significant underestimate. </p>
<p>Wellington’s Transmission Gully spans just 27km and cost an <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/analysis-taxpayers-in-the-dark-over-final-cost-of-transmission-gully/L4H226JFRKC4DHNCDMQTXCNRZY/#:%7E:text=Taxpayers%20still%20don%27t%20know,much%20remains%20to%20be%20seen">estimated $1.25 billion</a> – that equates to over $46 million per kilometre. The recently opened Ara Tūhono (dubbed the “holiday highway”) from <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300906854/prime-minister-cuts-ribbon-to-open-aucklands-new-1-billion-motorway">Puhoi to Warkworth</a> north of Auckland cost about $1.05 billion for just 18.5km – almost $57 million per kilometre. </p>
<p>A four-lane motorway between Whangarei and Tauranga would face more challenging terrain than Transmission Gully or Ara Tūhono and would span much longer distances. </p>
<p>Given the significant cost overruns of recent big roading projects, as well as the time it will take to build these roads, it’s likely the bill will be much more than $6 billion.</p>
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<h2>Private versus public transport</h2>
<p>The opportunity cost of these projects also needs to account for those who don’t – or don’t want to – drive a car.</p>
<p>National’s proposal calls for scrapping most of the “<a href="https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/politics/350045125/national-axe-lets-get-wellington-moving-promises-four-lanes-planes">Let’s Get Wellington Moving</a>” project, including a long-planned light rail line. This is on top of the party’s promise that it will axe the proposed Auckland light rail scheme.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-housing-u-turn-promotes-urban-sprawl-cities-and-ratepayers-will-pick-up-the-bill-206762">National’s housing u-turn promotes urban sprawl – cities and ratepayers will pick up the bill</a>
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<p>Both light rail proposals have been a point of contention: National argues that additional motorways and tunnelling in Wellington would be more cost-effective, and tunnelled light rail in Auckland has an enormous price tag. </p>
<p>But the transport mode itself is fast, efficient and equitable. A similarly controversial <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-finally-embraces-cbd-light-rail-as-patronage-surges-20230404-p5cxx3.html">light rail line in Sydney</a> opened a few years ago, with patronage more than doubling in a single year, despite the pandemic.</p>
<p>Public transport pollution is far less than that from personal vehicles. Buses and trains produce about <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/17/10652">80% less carbon emissions</a> per passenger kilometre than personal vehicles.</p>
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<h2>Roads versus climate</h2>
<p>Around the same time National was releasing its transport policy, July was confirmed to be the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/july-2023-is-hottest-month-ever-recorded-on-earth/">hottest month ever on Earth</a> (though August could replace that soon). </p>
<p>The northern hemisphere is experiencing extreme heatwaves. Some places are reaching the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/global-heat-wave-weather-temperatures-07-18-23/">upper limits of human survival</a>. In the American southwest, the pavement got so hot people were treated for <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/16/second-degree-burns-heat-dome-us-116-farenheit-california/">second-degree burns</a>.</p>
<p>Records are also breaking around Antarctic sea ice melt, with the most significant deviations from historical averages ever recorded. Wildfires have raged across Canada, Sicily, Algeria and other countries. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-big-too-heavy-and-too-slow-to-change-road-transport-is-way-off-track-for-net-zero-208655">Too big, too heavy and too slow to change: road transport is way off track for net zero</a>
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<p>Human-generated carbon emissions have exacerbated these extremes. Of those emissions, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-transport">almost 25% are from the transport sector</a>, and passenger transport (cars and light trucks) accounts for about 45% of the sector’s emissions.</p>
<p>Given the observable realities of the climate crisis, many have questioned the logic of leaning into road expansion as a policy, especially at the expense of efficient public transport. </p>
<p>More roads encourage <a href="https://www.wired.com/2014/06/wuwt-traffic-induced-demand/">more traffic and more driving</a>, often leading to even worse congestion. Expanded road networks also encourage development in lower-density areas by making them more accessible, at least in the short term. </p>
<p>While this is a selling point in National’s transportation plan, it often leads to more car-dependent development that make <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192091830628X">traffic congestion even worse</a>. Combined with National’s proposal to <a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-housing-u-turn-promotes-urban-sprawl-cities-and-ratepayers-will-pick-up-the-bill-206762">build housing in “greenfields” zones</a> away from cities, it risks locking the country into a car-dependent, high-carbon future.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-cars-alone-wont-save-the-planet-well-need-to-design-cities-so-people-can-walk-and-cycle-safely-171818">Electric cars alone won’t save the planet. We'll need to design cities so people can walk and cycle safely</a>
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<h2>The EV mirage</h2>
<p>National leader Christopher Luxon has <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nationals-new-transport-policy-laughable-at-best-according-to-labour/PUPHBLW2MVBHVN6RJ6PQSOGYO4/">made the point</a> that “even electric vehicles need adequate roads”. But this begs a bigger question about <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-cars-alone-wont-save-the-planet-well-need-to-design-cities-so-people-can-walk-and-cycle-safely-171818">relying on EVs</a> to solve transport and climate problems.</p>
<p>Despite years of generous subsidies, battery-electric vehicles still make up just <a href="https://evdb.nz/growth-evs-nz">1.3% of New Zealand’s total fleet</a>. This is nowhere near the numbers needed to make a meaningful dent in transport emissions. </p>
<p>EVs require the same amount of road space and, due to their increased weight, potentially cause more road damage. But EV owners don’t buy petrol, which means they don’t pay excise tax – the same tax that pays for expanding roads.</p>
<p>Even with inflation around 7%, the excise tax has not increased in more than four years, meaning every year the tax’s purchasing power diminishes.</p>
<p>National’s plan to build more roads rather than focus on better public transport is reminiscent of transport policies from the 1950s and 1960s. That era saw the construction of the car-centric cities we now struggle to maintain and move around in. </p>
<p>That era also moved us closer to climate disaster, and generally made transport less efficient and less equitable. In hindsight, massive roading infrastructure projects weren’t the solution they might have seemed 70 years ago. But they have at least provided a lesson in what not to do today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210696/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Welch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The National Party’s transport policy risks locking the country into a car-dependent, high-carbon future.Timothy Welch, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093832023-07-26T14:56:09Z2023-07-26T14:56:09ZPedestrians in Ghana are risking their lives – we studied what’s distracting them while walking<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537613/original/file-20230716-117608-g3zaz0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Walking is a popular mode of transportation in Ghana</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons/Linda Fletcher Dabo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Walking has health and environmental benefits – but it’s not always a person’s choice for getting around. And it does come with hazards. <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/02-05-2013-more-than-270-000-pedestrians-killed-on-roads-each-year">One fifth</a> of the people killed on the roads globally are pedestrians. </p>
<p>In Ghana, like other developing countries, walking is the main mode of travel. A 2012 survey found that <a href="https://www2.statsghana.gov.gh/docfiles/publications/Second%20National%20Household%20Transport%20Survey%20Report%202012.pdf#page=iv">64.4%</a> of the workforce went to work on foot. </p>
<p>Ghana’s <a href="https://www.ghana.gov.gh/mdas/3c5160e416/">National Road Safety Authority</a> <a href="https://myjoyonline.com/road-accidents-claimed-2924-lives-in-2021/">reported</a> 2,930 pedestrians were knocked down in 2021 and 831 died. </p>
<p>Pedestrians are vulnerable for several reasons. The design of road infrastructure is one. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259715300_Urban_Infrastructure_Design_and_Pedestrian_Safety_in_the_Kumasi_Central_Business_District_Ghana">Research</a> has shown that the absence of sidewalks forces pedestrians into the road, exposing them to motorised transport that heightens the risk of traffic crashes and injuries. </p>
<p>Risky in-traffic pedestrian walking behaviour is also a factor. Consuming alcohol, chatting with others, and using a mobile phone all heighten the risk of injuries. </p>
<p>As transport geographers we set out to discover what distracts pedestrians in Accra’s main business district. Our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21650020.2023.2220574">study</a> discovered that the use of mobile devices, poorly designed infrastructure and advanced age all played a role. We suggest the city needs pedestrian friendly infrastructure and local laws to regulate walking behaviour.</p>
<h2>Digital devices distract pedestrians</h2>
<p>We chose to study the central business district of the capital, Accra, since it <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21650020.2023.2220574">accounts</a> for 57.6% of pedestrian accidents within the <a href="https://www.ama.gov.gh/">Accra Metropolitan Assembly</a>. It also records high foot traffic, being a major economic hub in Ghana. </p>
<p>The study engaged 400 commuters. We asked respondents to rank various activities they commonly engaged in while walking. A five-point scale indicated the extent of their engagement in these activities. </p>
<p>The respondents’ top four distracting activities involved using digital devices like mobile phones. Listening to music on a mobile phone emerged as the major distraction: 79% of respondents ranked it as their most common distractive activity. Making or receiving phone calls and conversing with other people while walking (2nd and 3rd) followed. Browsing the internet on mobile phones ranked 4th, and was widespread among those aged 9-24 and 27-42. </p>
<h2>Who is distracted?</h2>
<p>The study also indicated that sex, age, level of education, occupation, reasons for walking and weekly time spent walking were significant predictors of distractions. </p>
<p>Male pedestrians were more than twice as likely to engage in distractive activities. This is consistent with the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ssqu.13079">expectations</a> of some behaviour experts. </p>
<p>On age, the data revealed a significant association between commuters aged 49-59 and distracted walking. A growing body of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/131608">literature</a> has identified older people as engaging in distracted walking since they are less likely to estimate their walking environment accurately. Even looking at signage or objects of interest, buying items, or conversing with other pedestrians may increase their risk of injury. </p>
<p>Respondents with senior high school education (nine years of basic education) were also more prone to distraction. Evidence shows that <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1243880.pdf*page=1">most</a> Ghanaians end their education at this level. Working in the informal economy as hawkers or in other businesses encroaching on sidewalks, people are likely to compete with pedestrians for space or run after moving cars to sell their wares. </p>
<p>Relative to respondents who walked only for short trips, respondents who walked as part of their job recorded a far higher likelihood of engaging in distractive behaviour. Most of their day is spent walking, engaged in activities like sales or marketing, providing a courier service, or hawking. </p>
<p>Finally, time allocated to walking made a difference to behaviour. Whether weekly or daily, respondents who dedicated more time to walking in the CBD were more likely to walk in a distracted way.</p>
<h2>Safety plans</h2>
<p>Accra already has a <a href="https://www.ama.gov.gh/documents/Pedestrian-Safety-Action-Plan-FOR-PRINT-INDIVIDUAL-PAGES.PDF.pdf">pedestrian safety action plan</a>, but it focuses on the built environment rather than on behaviour. This study suggested the plan should include a policy statement on pedestrian walking behaviour.</p>
<p>The Accra Metropolitan Assembly (the administrative authority) can enact laws restricting pedestrians from listening to music with headphones, making phone calls while crossing roads or engaging in unwarranted conversations. </p>
<p>Additionally, the National Road Safety Authority and Ghana Police Service should collaborate on educational outreach programmes on all media platforms. They should focus on the dangers and causes of distractive walking. </p>
<p>Interventions like these offer the chance to reduce pedestrian injuries in Accra.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209383/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The city of Accra has no plan to tackle pedestrians’ behaviour.Prince Kwame Odame, Lecturer, Geography Education, University of Education, WinnebaEnoch F Sam, Head of Department , Department of Geography Education, University of Education, WinnebaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060272023-07-17T15:06:18Z2023-07-17T15:06:18ZThey Eat Our Sweat - new book exposes daily struggles of transport workers in Lagos<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535262/original/file-20230703-266873-aa70gw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A minibus driver and an agbero exchange blows at Ojota, Lagos. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Daniel E. Agbiboa’s book <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/they-eat-our-sweat-9780198861546?cc=us&lang=en&">They Eat Our Sweat: Transport Labor, Corruption, and Everyday Survival in Urban Nigeria</a> explores the world of drivers of minibuses (danfo) and motorcycles (okada) in Lagos, the economic capital of Nigeria. <a href="https://wcfia.harvard.edu/people/daniel-e-agbiboa">Agbiboa</a> is assistant professor of African and African American studies at Harvard University. His research interests include the informal economy, urban change, mobility and youth politics. </p>
<p>The book describes the everyday interactions between the drivers, their conductors, union members regulating the garages through which they pass daily, and police officers. The drivers work 10 to 12 hours a day, six days a week, but go home without much revenue after paying daily “fees” or “dues” to bus owners, police officers and union members. </p>
<p>To gather materials for the book, Agbiboa worked as a conductor in a minibus for several months. He witnessed everyday forms of exploitation of these drivers by the police and touts. One driver summed it up: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I work tirelessly each day, while the ‘baboons’ (touts and police) stand in the roundabout and just chop (eat) my sweat.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Agbiboa reveals the micro dynamics of corruption and the drivers’ obligation to pay street-level bureaucrats from the National Union of Road Transport Workers and police. </p>
<p>His book is very welcome as he explores in detail the everyday survival of minibus and okada transport workers. Like many informal workers, transport operators have no fixed income, no days off and no social protection. And, as elsewhere on the continent, drivers have to speed to make ends meet. A central argument of the book is that corruption levels are high on the road.</p>
<p>My view, as a scholar of <a href="https://www.sciencespo.fr/histoire/en/researcher/Laurent%20Fourchard/76183.html">Nigerian history and political sociology</a>, is that the book’s solid empirical base makes it an important study of transport working conditions in the country. Agbiboa usefully questions the distinction – recently established by critical scholars – between “capitalist owners” (of minibuses) and “proletarian workers” (who have only their labour to sell) in Africa’s cities. In Lagos, he suggests, the workers have the potential to earn more money than the owners. </p>
<p>The author also places Lagos in a larger conversation about informal transport in Africa’s cities, moving beyond any exceptional character of Lagos. He rightly insists there is order beyond the apparent chaos in African cities.</p>
<p>The book also documents the efforts of some transport associations to challenge state laws which deprive workers of their revenues. In an attempt to promote Lagos as a “world class city”, the <a href="https://pmnewsnigeria.com/2012/09/04/lagos-traffic-law-okada-riders-vow-resistance/">2012 Lagos State Law</a> banned motorbike riders from operating on the most important roads of the state and wealthy neighbourhoods. <a href="https://www.channelstv.com/2012/12/13/okada-riders-loss-battle-against-lagos-traffic-law/">Okada attempted to resist but eventually lost</a>. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-okada-motorcycles-have-a-bad-image-but-banning-them-solves-nothing-154765">saga</a> revealed the imbalance of power and the official narrative that associated motorbike drivers with crime, danger and disorder.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-okada-motorcycles-have-a-bad-image-but-banning-them-solves-nothing-154765">Nigeria's okada motorcycles have a bad image, but banning them solves nothing</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>. </p>
<h2>Extortion and complicity</h2>
<p>Agbiboa suggests the daily encounters between <em>agbero</em> (the agents who collect fees from drivers for the transport union), drivers and police agents are marked by extortion and complicity. </p>
<p>The book asserts complicity between <em>agbero</em> and police agents and never between <em>agbero</em> and drivers. My own observations in several motor parks in Lagos suggest, however, that there isn’t always complicity between <em>agbero</em> and police, and that complicity between <em>agbero</em> and drivers is very common. Most <em>agbero</em> and drivers work together daily in the same garage for years, sometimes for decades. They know each other and develop various forms of sociability that could not be reduced to violent exploitation. </p>
<p>To a large extent, the book presents the drivers’ perspective, more than that of union members, whose voices are rarely heard. Most drivers are not members of the <a href="https://web.facebook.com/nurtwabuja/?_rdc=1&_rdr">National Union of Road Transport Workers</a>, but former drivers are often union members. </p>
<p>The union is powerful in regulating transport and plays a key role in electoral politics, two dimensions that remain to be explored in more detailed empirical works. </p>
<p>The book presents the union mainly as a criminal organisation. The author defends the hypothesis of a predatory union-state alliance that “eats the sweat” of drivers. This view has merit but it probably needs further explanation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02255189.2022.2132924">My own research suggests</a> there are more ambivalent relationships between union members, state officials, police and military officers at the grassroots level. Union members are often in conflict with the police while negotiating with police officers for the release of their drivers from police stations or jails. None of them want the drivers working under their authority to be arrested, and many of them try to protect them against police extortion in order to keep business flowing.</p>
<p>Agbiboa makes a welcome distinction between <em>agbero</em> identified with a specific garage or motorpark and “area boys”, or “delinquents” associated with a particular neighbourhood. <em>Agbero</em> do not want to be associated with crime: they think of themselves as workers. Still, <em>agbero</em> are criminalised in the book. They are the easy target of public criticism. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A book cover" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537269/original/file-20230713-23-fn0yq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The book.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/they-eat-our-sweat-9780198861546?cc=us&lang=en&">Oxford University Press</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2><em>Agbero</em> seen as outlaws</h2>
<p>Drivers insist that <em>agbero</em> are making easy money from their work but, as my <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02255189.2022.2132924">research</a> has found, <em>agbero</em> are often in the same precarious conditions as transport workers themselves. Their leaders impose on them a daily revenue target to be taken from the drivers. Many of them hardly make a living from their work. </p>
<p>In my view, the <em>agbero</em> has become the new figure of a long history of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4100568">criminalisation of poor young urban men</a>. Transport in Nigeria could be better understood if <em>agbero</em> were analysed as the least powerful members of the union working for the benefit of more powerful and better connected members of society: union bureaucrats, government officials, politicians and law enforcement agents who have a common interest in keeping this revenue system intact. </p>
<p>These remarks aside, Agbiboa’s book is the most detailed and accurate account of Nigeria’s road transport system so far.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206027/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurent Fourchard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new book focuses on the politics of road transport, the everyday corruption and the hard-living world of transport workers in Lagos, Nigeria.Laurent Fourchard, Research Fellow, Sciences Po Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2085112023-07-03T11:36:13Z2023-07-03T11:36:13ZFour priorities for Nigeria’s newly elected national assembly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534306/original/file-20230627-17-o3m7yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigeria's Senate president, Godswill Akpabio (middle), takes the oath of office on 13 June 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/nigerias-senate-president-godswill-akpabio-takes-oath-of-news-photo/1258664363?adppopup=true">Kola Sulaimon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nigeria’s <a href="https://nass.gov.ng/">National Assembly</a> – the 10th since independence – was <a href="https://www.channelstv.com/2023/06/13/live-inauguration-of-10th-national-assembly/">inaugurated</a> on 13 June 2023. It has two arms: the Senate and the House of Representatives. The 109 senators and 360 representatives were elected on 25 February 2023. Godswill Akpabio was elected Senate president and Tajudeen Abass House of Representatives speaker. </p>
<p>Its primary responsibility is lawmaking for effective administration of the state. In Nigeria, the power of the National Assembly’s two houses to legislate is enshrined in <a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nigeria_1999.pdf#page=21">section 4 of the 1999 constitution</a>. </p>
<p>The constitution also enables the National Assembly to scrutinise and monitor executive activities. <a href="https://www.lawglobalhub.com/section-80-89/#Section_88_of_the_Nigerian_Constitution">Sections 88</a> and <a href="https://www.lawglobalhub.com/section-80-89/#Section_88_of_the_Nigerian_Constitution">89</a> of the constitution set out its the oversight powers.</p>
<p>Overseeing the executive requires a determined and strong legislative institution committed to its constitutional responsibilities. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BWHe7SMAAAAJ&hl=en">researcher with expertise in legislative studies</a> and a published <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-93509-6_7">paper</a> on legislative oversight in Nigeria, I think for the 10th Assembly to succeed in discharging its constitutional responsibilities, it should focus on four critical issues. </p>
<h2>Issues deserving attention</h2>
<p>I think the National Assembly should focus on the following issues for the next four years: the economy; power supply; infrastructure; and security. </p>
<p><strong>The economy</strong></p>
<p>First, the national economic situation is worsening. Nigeria is grappling with <a href="https://www.cbn.gov.ng/rates/inflrates.asp?year=2023">inflation</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-poverty-profile-is-grim-its-time-to-move-beyond-handouts-163302">extreme poverty</a>. The recent <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerias-fuel-subsidy-removal-will-boost-sovereign-wealth-fund-cash-cio-2023-05-31/">removal of the fuel subsidy</a> will make it harder for people to make a living and survive. Thus, a legislative agenda to redeem the national economy is imperative..</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-economy-four-priorities-president-elect-bola-tinubu-must-deliver-on-189022">Nigeria's economy: four priorities president-elect Bola Tinubu must deliver on</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>.</p>
<p><strong>Power supply</strong></p>
<p>Second, meaningful economic policies and programmes require a regular power supply. Since 1999, an estimated <a href="https://www.thecable.ng/report-nigeria-lost-n11trn-corruption-power-sector-since-1999">N11 trillion</a> (about US$14 billion) has reportedly been committed by successive governments to electricity supply. Yet power is still unreliable. Manufacturers, artisans and citizens depend on alernative sources that <a href="https://punchng.com/nigeria-relies-on-generators-for-75-electricity-report/">generate 75%</a> of their electricity needs. On top of this, a <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/households-under-pressure-as-new-electricity-tariff-due-july-1/">40% electricity tariff hike</a> is due to take off on 1 July. Some manufacturers have <a href="https://www.arise.tv/nigerian-manufacturers-we-may-relocate-to-other-african-countries-over-proposed-40-hike-in-electricity-tariff/">threatened</a> to leave Nigeria if this goes ahead. This will add to the unemployment crisis projected to be <a href="https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2023/03/kpmg-global-economic-outlook-h1-2023-report.pdf#page=47">40.6%</a> in 2023 and worsen the nation’s economic conundrum. A legislative agenda that would address the power sector is imperative to halt the drift.</p>
<p><strong>Infrastructure</strong></p>
<p>The third legislative agenda item should be the country’s infrastructural decay, especially the road networks. Nigeria has <a href="https://dlca.logcluster.org/23-nigeria-road-network">195,000 km</a> of road network of which about 60,000km are paved as at 2019. While the immediate past government constructed or rehabilitated <a href="https://tribuneonlineng.com/buharis-infrastructural-giant-strides/">8,352.9km of roads</a>, much still ought to be done in this area. </p>
<p>Transportation is central to sustainable economic progress and development. The National Assembly should rededicate itself to the scrutiny of the country’s transport sector for an effective supply chain. Lower transport costs will make goods and services more affordable. Infrastructural decay and neglect have contributed to the crisis of governance in Nigeria.</p>
<p><strong>Security</strong></p>
<p>The fourth agenda item should be security. Nigeria is in crisis, <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-security-situation-has-got-worse-what-tinubus-administration-needs-to-do-about-it-206545">experiencing </a>different kinds of violence. The government is quick to deploy state machinery to suppress and repress direct and cultural violence, such as <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58817690">#EndSars</a>, insurgencies, kidnapping, armed robbery and separatist movements. But it has failed to address the most lethal: structural violence, which is the result of failed and failing institutional structures of the state. </p>
<p>One scholar has described <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119240716.ch7#:%7E:text=Structural%20violence%20refers%20to%20a,occur%20in%20more%20equal%20societies">structural violence</a> as “a form of violence wherein social structures or social institutions harm people by preventing them from meeting their basic needs.” </p>
<p>At the centre of the country’s structural violence is the burgeoning corruption and mismanagement of the nation’s resources. Nigeria is currently <a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/nigeria">ranked</a> 150 out of 180 countries in the Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International. This has eroded the integrity of public institutions and leadership, including the National Assembly. The legislature has a role to play in this direction in reducing violence and improve security through constructive public engagement and transparent accountability. A purposeful monitoring and scrutiny of the implementation of the various economic policies, as the constitution demands, would reduce the scourge of corruption and mismanagement of appropriated resources and guarantee effective public service delivery. There is a need to restore public confidence in government.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-security-situation-has-got-worse-what-tinubus-administration-needs-to-do-about-it-206545">Nigeria's security situation has got worse: what Tinubu's administration needs to do about it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>. </p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>All the issues are within the oversight competence of the National Assembly. Effective oversight of executive actions is a necessity to boost the fortunes of the nation and rekindle the hope of citizens that entrusted the National Assembly with their collective power for the promotion of their interests.</p>
<p>Since the Fourth Republic <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/298659111_Nigeria's_fourth_republic_and_the_challenge_of_a_faltering_democratization">began</a> on 29 May 1999, Nigerians have been waiting in vain for the assembly to fulfil this role. The previous nine legislatures have failed as the central institution of the government. That’s because politics has been about personal power and financial gain. </p>
<p>Under President Olusegun Obasanjo’s government <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Olusegun-Obasanjo">from 1999 to 2007</a>, the National Assembly was <a href="https://tribuneonlineng.com/obasanjo-cowed-national-assembly-president-olaitan-ex-ad-house-leader/">unable</a> to assert its relevance. The executive sought to cage and control its activities, against the principle of separation of powers. The <a href="https://thecjid.org/top-10-corruption-scandals-nigerias-national-assembly-hasnt-resolved/">corruption scandals</a> in the legislature since 1999 have dented the assembly’s integrity as the conscience of the public. </p>
<p>The failure of the legislative assemblies since 1999 to do what the constitution expects of them has resulted in the country’s people being unable to meet their basic needs.</p>
<p>When other institutions of the government fail in their responsibilities, the legislature cannot afford to fail its principal, the people. Nigeria’s 10th Assembly can make a difference.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208511/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Omololu Fagbadebo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nigeria’s National Assembly must not shirk its oversight responsibilities, focusing on four priorities will be a good place to start.Omololu Fagbadebo, Research Associate, Durban University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2077792023-06-29T12:17:01Z2023-06-29T12:17:01ZDisasters like bridge collapses put transportation agencies’ emergency plans to the test<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584441/original/file-20240326-18-k42fw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C5150%2C3193&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A container ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on March 26, 2024, collapsing a section of the bridge. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MarylandBridgeCollapse/3ab19a4aa7274ec49065520bb79aa9ea/photo">AP Photo/Steve Ruark</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A container ship <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-53169b379820032f832de4016c655d1b">rammed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore</a> around 1:30 a.m. on March 26, 2024, causing a portion of the bridge to collapse into Baltimore Harbor. Officials called the event a mass casualty and were searching for people in the waters of the busy port.</em> </p>
<p><em>This event occurred less than a year after <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2023/06/11/bridge-collapse-philadelphia-interstate-95/">a portion of Interstate 95 collapsed</a> in north Philadelphia during a truck fire. That disaster was initially expected to snarl traffic for months, but a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/06/23/i-95-bridge-reopening-friday/70349844007/">temporary six-lane roadway</a> was constructed in 12 days to serve motorists while a permanent overpass was rebuilt.</em></p>
<p><em>U.S. cities often face similar challenges when <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/memphis-cracked-i-40-bridge-creates-headache-traffic-shipping-n1267187">routine wear and tear</a>, <a href="https://abc7news.com/loma-prieta-quake-earthquake-when-was-magnitude/5605965/">natural disasters</a> or major accidents damage roads and bridges. Transportation engineer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RxdHmbMAAAAJ&hl=en">Lee D. Han</a> explains how planners, transit agencies and city governments anticipate and manage these disruptions.</em></p>
<h2>How do agencies plan for disruptions like this?</h2>
<p>Planning is a central mission for state and metropolitan transportation agencies. </p>
<p>Traditional long-term planning focuses on anticipating and preparing for growing and shifting transportation demand patterns. These changes are driven by regional and national economic and population trends. </p>
<p>Shorter-term planning is about ensuring mobility and safety during service disruptions. These events can include construction, major scheduled events like <a href="https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/bonnaroo-traffic-tdot-prepares-for-traffic-in-manchester/">music festivals</a>, traffic incidents such as crashes and hazardous material spills, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2007)133:1(3)">emergency evacuations</a>, and events like the bridge collapse in Baltimore.</p>
<p>Agencies have limited resources, so they typically set priorities based on how likely a given scenario is, its potential adverse effects and the countermeasures that officials have available. </p>
<p>For bridges, the <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/">Federal Highway Administration</a> sets standards and requires states to carry out periodic inspections. In addition, agencies develop a detouring plan for each bridge in case of a structural failure or service disruption. In Baltimore, Key Bridge traffic will be <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/travel-around-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-baltimore-traffic/">routed through two tunnels</a> that pass under the harbor, but trucks carrying hazardous materials will have to take longer detours.</p>
<p>Major bridges, such as those at Mississippi River crossings, are crucial to the nation’s economy and security. They require significant planning, commitment and coordination between multiple agencies. There usually are multiple contingency plans in place to deal with immediate traffic control, incident response and field operations during longer-term bridge repair or reconstruction projects. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Francis Scott Key Bridge carries more than 30,000 vehicles daily past the Port of Baltimore, which serves many container ships daily.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>What are some major challenges of rerouting traffic?</h2>
<p>Bridges are potential choke points in highway networks. When a bridge fails, traffic immediately stops and begins to flow elsewhere, even without a formal detouring plan. Transportation agencies need to build or find excess capacity before a bridge fails, so that the disrupted traffic has alternative routes. </p>
<p>This is usually manageable in major urban areas that have many parallel routes and bridges and built-in redundancy in their road networks. But for rural areas, failure of a major bridge can mean extra hours or even days of travel. </p>
<p>When traffic has to be rerouted off an interstate highway, it can cause safety and access problems. If large trucks are diverted to local streets that were not designed for such vehicles, they may get stuck on railroad tracks or in spaces too small for them to turn around. Heavy trucks can damage roads and bridges with low weight limits, and tall trucks may be too large to fit through low-clearance underpasses.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A highway at night, jammed with traffic on one side, the other side empty." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Traffic is jammed on I-10 westbound amid evacuations ahead of Hurricane Delta on Oct. 8, 2020, in Lake Charles, Louisiana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/traffic-is-jammed-on-i-10-westbound-amid-evacuations-ahead-news-photo/1279252464">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Successful rerouting requires a lot of coordination between agencies and jurisdictions. They may have to adjust road signal timing to deal with extra cars and changed traffic patterns. Local drivers may need to be directed away from these alternative routes to prevent major congestion. </p>
<p>It’s also important to communicate with navigation apps like <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/about/#!/">Google Maps</a> and <a href="https://www.waze.com/apps/">Waze</a>, which every driver has access to. Route choices that speed up individual trips may cause serious congestion if everyone decides to take the same alternate route and it doesn’t have enough capacity to handle the extra traffic.</p>
<h2>Can these events permanently change commuting and traffic patterns?</h2>
<p>In some cases, yes. Some repairs take months, such as the 2022 crack in the <a href="https://www.ualrpublicradio.org/local-regional-news/2022-02-21/how-authorities-missed-the-flaw-that-nearly-brought-down-the-i-40-bridge">I-40 Hernando De Soto Bridge</a> across the Mississippi River in Memphis, Tennessee. Others can stretch over years, such as the 2007 collapse of the <a href="https://www.lrl.mn.gov/guides/guides?issue=bridges">I-35W bridge</a> in Minneapolis. Some structures are rebuilt elsewhere, like the <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/public-roads/marchapril-1998/replacing-oaklands-cypress-freeway">I-880 Cypress Street viaduct</a> in Oakland, California, which collapsed during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. </p>
<p>While traffic is disrupted, motorists change their commute patterns or may even switch to other modes, such as buses or commuter rail. But after repairs are completed, even if some commuters don’t return to their old routes, new traffic soon will take advantage of the restored capacity. In the end, it’s hard to tell just by looking at usage whether commuters have changed their travel patterns permanently.</p>
<h2>Will money from the 2021 infrastructure bill reduce the risk of these kinds of events?</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, things do fall apart. U.S. infrastructure has been <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/">deteriorating for decades</a>. The American Road & Transportation Builders Association has estimated that <a href="https://artbabridgereport.org/">1 in 3 U.S. bridges need repair</a>. </p>
<p>At the current rate, we are unlikely to catch up to a state of good repair any time soon. But strategic investments like the 2021 infrastructure bill can likely help repair and address critical deterioration concerns for some high-risk bridges, roads, dams and other structures. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RYeTRa8GJ-8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This time-lapse video shows crews working around the clock to build a temporary roadway at the site of a collapsed overpass on Interstate 95 in north Philadelphia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Can public transit fill part of the gap?</h2>
<p>Public transit may be able to fill the gap in several ways when key roadway links are destroyed or damaged.</p>
<p>Fixed-route rail transit services, such as Washington, D.C.’s Metro and commuter rail services in Chicago, typically have exclusive rights of way, which let them travel at higher speed than buses on surface streets. They also have high capacity that can be increased by adding more cars to each train or running trains more frequently. </p>
<p>If those systems’ routes are not disrupted due to something like a bridge collapse, they may be able to operate above their normal loads. Drivers can shift to transit as long as their trip origins and destinations are conveniently located near transit stations.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1772554130365550738"}"></div></p>
<p>Bus transit services don’t usually have exclusive rights of way or means to add extra carrying capacity per vehicle. But they have more flexibility to extend the service areas that they cover and connect otherwise non-walkable locales.</p>
<p>Coordinating use of various transit services and creatively adjusting bus lines could address some local travel needs, such as daily commutes and school and shopping trips. But local public transit services struggle to fill longer-distance gaps that extend beyond their service areas.</p>
<p>In major urban areas like Philadelphia that have large populations and have invested a lot in their transit systems, public transit could carry as much as 25% of daily commute trips. But for disruptions outside of major cities, such as a bridge collapse on an interstate highway in a rural area, public transit probably won’t have much of a role.</p>
<p>It’s also important to note that public transit services are for moving people. Freight shipments, which rely on trucks and other specialized vehicles, also need to get through or around disrupted zones. This often requires large commercial trucks either to use nearby local streets that weren’t designed for such big, heavy vehicles, or to make long-distance detours. That increases delays, pollution, safety risks and transportation costs that will eventually be passed on to consumers.</p>
<p><em>This is an update of an article originally published on June 29, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee D. Han receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Transportation. </span></em></p>Transportation agencies plan for events like major bridge or highway collapses, but these events can disrupt traffic for months and affect residential neighborhoods as well as motorists.Lee D. Han, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2040602023-05-21T10:11:03Z2023-05-21T10:11:03ZGrand infrastructure projects aren’t a magic bullet for industrial development – insights from Ghana and Kenya<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522146/original/file-20230420-201-3jeqjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kenya Lamu Port Project</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The African Union’s flagship <a href="https://au.int/en/agenda2063/overview">Agenda 2063</a> initiative prioritises <a href="https://au.int/en/infrastructure-energy-development">large-scale infrastructure development</a> and promises to “link the continent by rail, road, sea and air”. </p>
<p>This is being undertaken in parallel with efforts to improve economic integration. In 2021, the 54 countries on the continent made history when they began trading within the <a href="https://au-afcfta.org/about/">African Continental Free Trade Area</a>. It is the largest free trade area in the world.</p>
<p>Proponents of an approach to development that focuses on <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00343404.2019.1661984">infrastructure</a> claim that improving connectivity will foster industrialisation and planned urbanisation. It gives policy makers tools to create well-planned urban regions that can compete in the global economy and attract foreign direct investment. These, in turn, will foster industrial growth. </p>
<p>The argument goes that setting up <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21622671.2022.2092205">development corridors</a>, <a href="https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/978-0-8213-8638-5">special economic zones</a>, ‘<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0042098018793032">new cities</a>,’ and drawing up <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0308518X18763370">city master plans</a> will lead to the development of urban spaces that can be ‘plugged in’ to global production networks. This will boost the productivity and competitiveness of African industry. Ultimately African countries will export more high-value manufactured goods rather than natural resources and unprocessed agriculture commodities.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03056244.2023.2171284">Our research</a> calls these claims into question. We assessed the impact of transnational development corridor projects in Kenya and Ghana. We found that in both cases, improved connectivity failed to catalyse industrialisation. Instead, it encouraged land speculation as it opened up new spaces to real estate investment.</p>
<p>This is a problem. Failure to trigger industrial growth risks locking Africa into the global economy as an <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03056244.2015.1084911">exporter of raw materials</a>. On top of this, cities without industry have <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10887-015-9121-4">higher levels of inequality</a> than their more industrialised counterparts. </p>
<p>We concluded that infrastructure that links mines to ports isn’t enough. It needs to be accompanied by policies that discourage speculation in land, and encourage productive investment in factories that can process raw materials and provide jobs to the continent’s young urban workforce.</p>
<h2>Infrastructure-led development in Africa</h2>
<p>Poor quality infrastructure is a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00343404.2019.1661984">legacy of neoliberal structural adjustment </a> programmes imposed on African countries by the International Monetary Fund in the 1980s and 1990s. Governments that received these loans were largely prohibited from investing in infrastructure. But private investors showed little interest in building large-scale transnational logistics and energy infrastructure.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/2008-2009-global-financial-crisis/">2008 financial crisis</a> changed everything. Many governments responded by <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X19300713">reintroducing national development planning</a>. These included <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13563467.2022.2091534">large-scale infrastructure projects</a>. These projects could be financed because low interest rates in advanced-industrial countries meant that borrowing was cheap. </p>
<p>By 2018 <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718517303299?via%3Dihub">more than 50 development corridors</a> were in various stages of construction across Africa. Many governments were fully committed to infrastructure-led development. Transportation networks and energy grids were expanded at break-neck speed in a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23792949.2022.2115933">continental competition</a>.</p>
<h2>Case study 1: Ghana</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://highwayabb.ecowas.int/about-the-project/">Abidjan–Lagos Corridor</a> is a project to build a transnational six-lane highway connecting Ghana’s capital, Accra, to Abidjan, Lome, Cotonou and Lagos. </p>
<p>The project was launched in 2014 by the <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Project-and-Operations/Multinational_-_Approved_-_Study_for_the_Abidjan-_Lagos_Corridor_Highway_Development_Project.pdf">Economic Community of West African States</a> with the support of the African Development Bank and African Union. More than 50% of the corridor traverses Ghanaian territory.</p>
<p>The initiative enjoys broad political support in Ghana. Through his <a href="https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/ghana-one-district-one-factor-1d1f-initiative">One District One Factory policy</a>, President Nana Akufo-Addo of the National Patriotic Party has sought to support industrialisation across a range of economic sectors, from textiles to pharmaceuticals. He has <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/Establish-a-management-authority-to-fast-track-implementation-of-Abidjan-Lagos-Corridor-Dev-t-Project-Akufo-Addo-790926">fast-tracked the Corridor project</a> and lobbied to host the management authority of the project. </p>
<p>The highway is the cornerstone of a rapidly urbanising West African ‘<a href="https://www.elgaronline.com/display/edcoll/9781788972697/9781788972697.00021.xml">megacity region</a>’. Real estate projects range from a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13563475.2019.1664896">planned new city 50km from Accra</a> to unplanned <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0042098019851949">urban sprawl</a> that extends throughout the corridor.</p>
<p>The corridor has not significantly boosted Ghanaian industrial capacity. <a href="https://stat.unido.org/sdg/GHA">According to UNIDO data</a>, manufacturing accounted for 14% of Ghana’s GDP in 2008. By 2022 this figure had shrunk to a mere 11.8%. It has, however, created opportunities for real estate speculation.</p>
<h2>Case study 2: Kenya</h2>
<p>We found similar results in Kenya. In 2008 the government launched <a href="https://vision2030.go.ke/">Kenya Vision 2030</a>. This targeted a number of key <a href="https://www.tralac.org/images/docs/8097/kenyas-industrial-transformation-programme-2015.pdf">economic sectors</a>. Agro-processing, textiles, leather and construction materials are some of these. The hope was that it would nearly double manufacturing’s share of gross domestic product.</p>
<p>The Kenyan Government went on an infrastructure spending spree. By 2019 Kenya was undertaking more large-scale infrastructure projects than almost <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/za/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/africa-construction-trends.html">any other country in Africa</a>.</p>
<p>Many of these projects are included in the <a href="https://www.lapsset.go.ke/">Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia Transport Corridor</a>. This is designed to integrate northern Kenya and its surrounding borderlands into a transnational region that boasts world class logistics infrastructure. In addition, the <a href="http://ke.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/zxyw/201910/t20191028_6817952.htm">Standard Gauge Railway</a> was built to link Mombasa and Nairobi, while a series of road projects around Nairobi were designed to decongest the city centre.</p>
<p>But Kenya’s manufacturing sector has generally disappointed. <a href="https://stat.unido.org/sdg/KEN">According to UNIDO</a> manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP decreased from 11.8% in 2008 to a 8.9% in 2022.</p>
<p>The infrastructure boom has, however, accelerated urban sprawl and speculation. Investors have rushed in to secure land adjacent to new projects in <a href="https://dlci-hoa.org/assets/upload/investment-in-the-dry-lands-documents/20200804041053648.pdf">Isiolo and Lamu</a>. North of Nairobi, the Thika Superhighway has catalysed a peri-urban real estate boom. For example, international developer Rendeavour is building a <a href="https://www.rendeavour.com/projects/tatu-city/">new city</a> with state-of-the-art amenities for 150,000 residents. </p>
<p>Elsewhere along the highway local landlords have built high-rise tenements to capitalise on the <a href="https://www.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/migrate/10876IIED.pdf">booming low-end rental market</a>.</p>
<h2>What must be done?</h2>
<p>Our findings do not rule out the possibility that infrastructure-led development could drive industrialisation in the future. But they suggest that it must be accompanied by policy that discourages speculation in land and real estate.</p>
<p>Currently, property in many African cities is not taxed, so many elites consider it the ‘<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1468-2427.12550">safest bet</a>.’ Levying taxes on property would discourage speculation and generate revenue that could be used for public spending. This approach has <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-gb/Urban+Land+Rent%3A+Singapore+as+a+Property+State-p-9781118827659">worked in East Asian countries</a> that have successfully achieved industrial transformation. </p>
<p>Without this, infrastructure-led development is likely to contribute to further <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10887-015-9121-4">urbanisation without industrialisation</a>. African governments will be unlikely to achieve their industrial objectives, and remain dependent on exporting natural resources and agricultural goods.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204060/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seth Schindler received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Gillespie received funding from a University of Manchester Hallsworth Research Fellowship and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office-funded African Cities Research Consortium. </span></em></p>Infrastructure that links mines to ports isn’t enough – it needs to be accompanied by policies that encourage productive investment in factories.Seth Schindler, Senior Lecturer in Urban Development & Transformation, University of ManchesterTom Gillespie, Lecturer in Global Urban Development, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2028942023-03-29T18:23:20Z2023-03-29T18:23:20ZFederal budget 2023: Long-term investments are needed to fix Canada’s infrastructure gap<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518282/original/file-20230329-26-aztqml.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=77%2C128%2C8508%2C5599&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The budget is focused on building communities through infrastructure, housing, transit and connectivity.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government’s <a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/2023/report-rapport/toc-tdm-en.html">2023 budget</a> unveiled investments in infrastructure, with a narrative highlighting resilient and sustainable communities, and pointing to Ottawa’s progress and investments to date. </p>
<p>The budget is focused on building communities through infrastructure, housing, transit and connectivity. Much of this emphasizes investments made since 2015, including <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/pub/dp-pm/2022-23/2022-supp-tp-pt-eng.html">$33.5 billion to the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program</a>, and $35 billion to the <a href="https://cib-bic.ca/en/about-us/our-purpose/">Canada Infrastructure Bank</a>.</p>
<h2>Funding critical infrastructure</h2>
<p>The budget’s investments include funding advanced research in infrastructure innovation, and continuing to invest in Canada’s Infrastructure Bank and Infrastructure Program. </p>
<p>The bank will play a leading role in electrification as part of the government’s push for clean power. This will likely position the bank as the government’s primary financing tool for major electrification projects. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518277/original/file-20230329-2823-j8ruvo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A women in a green suit speaking in Parliament" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518277/original/file-20230329-2823-j8ruvo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518277/original/file-20230329-2823-j8ruvo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518277/original/file-20230329-2823-j8ruvo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518277/original/file-20230329-2823-j8ruvo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518277/original/file-20230329-2823-j8ruvo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518277/original/file-20230329-2823-j8ruvo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518277/original/file-20230329-2823-j8ruvo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland delivers the federal budget in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on March 28, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Budget 2023 also commits to engaging with provinces and territories to revise procurement policies to ensure they benefit Canadian workers and build resilient supply chains. There are also investments in <a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/2023/report-rapport/chap3-en.html#a13">port, air and other critical transportation infrastructure</a>.</p>
<p>We know that <a href="http://canadainfrastructure.ca/en/index.html">Canada’s infrastructure is at risk</a>. Federal infrastructure investments can help to take financial pressure off municipalities that are faced with massive funding shortfalls in addressing their infrastructure concerns. With the population expected to grow, infrastructure will continue to be stressed and will <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canada-immigration-plans">struggle to keep up</a> without proper funding. </p>
<p>Budget 2023 provides no new major funds for what is considered essential community infrastructure: roads, water, wastewater and other infrastructure assets. Unlike electrification and connectivity — many aspects of Canada’s infrastructure gap remain relegated to low-priority status. </p>
<p>More investment is needed to address critical infrastructure gaps, but these are investments that Canadians may not be ready to make. Previous budgets have focused on short-term infrastructure investments as an economic stimulus, which doesn’t support the <a href="https://macleans.ca/opinion/canada-needs-more-infrastructure-spending-but-not-as-short-term-stimulus/">long-term view infrastructure requires</a>.</p>
<h2>Canada’s infrastructure gap</h2>
<p>A 2013 report on <a href="https://policyalternatives.ca/publications/reports/canadas-infrastructure-gap">Canada’s infrastructure gap</a> highlighted the chronic issues in infrastructure investments, including the notion that <a href="https://theconversation.com/progress-stops-when-we-create-and-dismantle-infrastructure-programs-every-federal-election-166301">infrastructure remains a political hot potato</a>. </p>
<p>Between the late 1950s and mid 2000s, <a href="https://policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/National%20Office/2013/01/Canada%27s%20Infrastructure%20Gap_0.pdf">public investment in infrastructure decreased</a> from around three per cent of GDP to 1.5 per cent, though it began to rise again in 2010. </p>
<p>During this same period, there was a significant shift in terms of who carries the burden of investing in infrastructure from the federal government, with a large revenue base, to municipalities who have the smallest revenue base.</p>
<p>Canada’s infrastructure deficit is at minimum estimated at <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/time-and-money-lost-to-canadas-infrastructure-gap-a-tremendous-loss/article37302054/">$150 billion</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/fao-report-stormwater-wastewater-infrastructure-extreme-rainfall-1.6684988">Local governments bear much of the additional infrastructure costs</a> related to extreme events, climate change mitigation and adaptation. </p>
<p>In 2013, floods <a href="https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/the-top-five-costliest-canadian-natural-disasters-of-the-2010s">caused around $3 billion in damage in southern Alberta and Toronto</a>. The cost of rebuilding in British Columbia after 2021 flooding has reached <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-cost-of-rebuilding-bc-after-november-storms-nears-9-billion/">nearly $9 billion</a>. The annual cost of natural disasters in Canada could be <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9091585/canada-climate-disasters-damage-report/">up to $139 billion by 2050</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518288/original/file-20230329-22-satzwn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign that reads: bridge is out on a snowy road." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518288/original/file-20230329-22-satzwn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518288/original/file-20230329-22-satzwn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518288/original/file-20230329-22-satzwn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518288/original/file-20230329-22-satzwn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518288/original/file-20230329-22-satzwn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518288/original/file-20230329-22-satzwn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518288/original/file-20230329-22-satzwn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A ‘Bridge is out’ sign is seen following flood damage in Merritt, B.C. in December 2021. Extreme weather events like floods and wildfires are placing greater pressure on public infrastructure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Internationally, governments are struggling with the same issues. From U.S. President Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-administration-touts-1-trillion-infrastructure-bill-2022-08-19/">$1 trillion infrastructure bill</a> to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-25/how-china-will-spend-1-trillion-on-infrastructure-to-boost-economy">China’s infrastructure investments</a>, infrastructure demand remains a constant across international communities from large to small. </p>
<p>But the question remains, where and how should we invest? And more importantly, what do you do when too few people seem to pay attention? North Americans have an imbalanced relationship with infrastructure, and our understanding of priority and need. We <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/biden-infrastructure-democrats-voters-00064694">care less about infrastructure investments</a> when we can’t see the direct benefits.</p>
<p>What we see in the 2023 budget is a careful dance. The government needs to show it’s making investments in infrastructure without further stretching public finances or making the tough choices that our dilapidated infrastructure requires. </p>
<p>No political party is protected from the curse of the infrastructure deficit — and there are no winners in the game of infrastructure funding. What it does require, is that we all collectively take responsibility. This means dealing with public spending deficits, even if that means paying more taxes. And strengthening our relationship with infrastructure and our collective understanding of the role that it plays in our daily lives. </p>
<p>Governments will need to take on additional costs, and individuals will need to learn to accept that improving our communities costs money. We all need to learn that the connection between infrastructure and our well-being is closer than we think.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerry Black receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. </span></em></p>The 2023 federal budget provides funding for critical infrastructure and clean energy. But long-term planning is needed to fix chronic problems.Kerry Black, Assistant Professor and Canada Research Chair, Integrated Knowledge, Engineering and Sustainable Communities, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1990492023-03-28T12:15:57Z2023-03-28T12:15:57ZA shortage of native seeds is slowing land restoration across the US, which is crucial for tackling climate change and extinctions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517710/original/file-20230327-16-yltw9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3994%2C2814&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Planting native plant seeds on sand dunes at Westward Beach in Malibu, Calif., to stabilize the dunes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sara-cuadra-watershed-program-coordinator-with-the-bay-news-photo/1234406431">Al Seib / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Spring is planting time for home gardeners, landscapers and public works agencies across the U.S. And there’s rising demand for <a href="https://www.wildflower.org/plants-main">native plants</a> – species that are genetically adapted to the specific regions where they are used. </p>
<p>Native plants have evolved with local climates and soil conditions. As a result, they generally require less maintenance, such as watering and fertilizing, after they become established, and they are hardier than non-native species. </p>
<p>Many federal, state and city agencies <a href="https://law.pace.edu/sites/default/files/Team%20%233%20Brief.pdf">rank native plants as a first choice</a> for restoring areas that have been disturbed by natural disasters or human activities like mining and development. Repairing damaged landscapes is a critical strategy for <a href="https://www.decadeonrestoration.org/">slowing climate change and species loss</a>. </p>
<p>But there’s one big problem: There aren’t enough native seeds. This issue is so serious that it was the <a href="https://doi.org/10.17226/26618">subject of a recent report</a> from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. The study found an urgent need to build a native seed supply. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=EAP10S8AAAAJ&hl=en">plant scientists</a> who have worked on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-campanelli/">ecological restoration projects</a>, we’re familiar with this challenge. Here’s how we are working to promote the use of native plants for <a href="https://nenativeplants.psla.uconn.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/3415/2022/08/netcr97_09-2.pdf">roadside restoration in New England</a>, including by building up a seed supply network.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/S98HAyDfOwY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Landscapers and land managers explain the benefits of planting native plants.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The need for native plants</h2>
<p>Many stressors can damage and degrade land. They include natural disasters, such as wildfires and flooding, and human actions, such as urbanization, energy production, ranching and development. </p>
<p>Invasive plants <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-021-02478-8">often move into disturbed areas</a>, causing further harm. They may <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2017.04.008">drift there on the wind</a>, be excreted by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2005.00195.x">birds and animals that consume fruit</a>, or be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051%5B0095:HAGPDG%5D2.0.CO;2">introduced by humans</a>, unintentionally or deliberately.</p>
<p>Ecological restoration aims to bring back degraded lands’ native biological diversity and the ecological functions that these areas provided, such as sheltering wildlife and soaking up floodwater. In 2021, the United Nations launched the <a href="https://www.decadeonrestoration.org/">U.N. Decade on Ecosystem Restoration</a> to promote such efforts worldwide.</p>
<p>Native plants have many features that make them an essential part of healthy ecosystems. For example, they provide long-term defense against invasive and noxious weeds; shelter local pollinators and wildlife; and have <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/reducing-erosion-with-native-plants.htm">roots that stabilize soil</a>, which helps reduce erosion.</p>
<p>Restoration projects require vast quantities of native seeds – but commercial supplies fall far short of what’s needed. Developing a batch of seeds for a specific species takes skill and several years of lead time to either <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/26618/chapter/2#2">collect native seeds in the wild or grow plants to produce them</a>. Suppliers say one of their biggest obstacles is unpredictable demand from large-scale customers, such as government and tribal agencies, that don’t plan far enough ahead for producers to have stocks ready.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517737/original/file-20230327-1159-1tiu2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dozens of small potted seedlings sprouting in large trays." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517737/original/file-20230327-1159-1tiu2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517737/original/file-20230327-1159-1tiu2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517737/original/file-20230327-1159-1tiu2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517737/original/file-20230327-1159-1tiu2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517737/original/file-20230327-1159-1tiu2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517737/original/file-20230327-1159-1tiu2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517737/original/file-20230327-1159-1tiu2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wyoming Big Sage seedlings growing in a greenhouse. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management and the Shoshone-Paiute Tribe are working together to produce native seedlings to restore public lands in Idaho that have been damaged by wildfires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/xkGQ6Q">Bureau of Land Management Idaho/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Restoring roadsides in New England</h2>
<p>Most drivers give little thought to what grows next to highways, but the wrong plants in these areas can cause serious problems. Roadsides that aren’t replanted using ecological restoration methods may erode and be taken over by invasive weeds. Ecological restoration provides effective erosion control and better habitat habitats for wildlife and pollinators. It’s also more attractive. </p>
<p>For decades, state transportation departments across the U.S. used non-native cool-season turfgrasses, such as fescue and ryegrass, to restore roadsides. The main benefits of using these species, which grow well during the <a href="https://extension.psu.edu/the-cool-season-turfgrasses-basic-structures-growth-and-development">cooler months of spring and fall</a>, were that they grew fast and provided a quick cover.</p>
<p>Then in 2013 the <a href="https://www.newenglandtransportationconsortium.org/">New England Transportation Consortium</a> – a research cooperative funded by state transportation agencies – commissioned our research team to help the states transition to native warm-season grasses instead. These grasses <a href="https://extension.psu.edu/warm-season-grasses">grow well in hot, dry weather</a> and need less moisture than cool-season grasses. One of us, John Campanelli, developed the <a href="https://nenativeplants.psla.uconn.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/3415/2022/08/netcr97_09-2.pdf">framework for selecting plant species</a> based on conservation practices and identified methods for establishing native plant communities for the region.</p>
<p>We recommended using warm-season grasses that are native to the region, such as <a href="https://gobotany.nativeplanttrust.org/species/schizachyrium/scoparium/">little bluestem</a>, <a href="https://gobotany.nativeplanttrust.org/species/eragrostis/spectabilis/">purple lovegrass</a>, <a href="https://plantfinder.nativeplanttrust.org/plant/Panicum-virgatum">switchgrass</a> and <a href="https://gobotany.nativeplanttrust.org/species/tridens/flavus/">purpletop</a>. These species required less long-term maintenance and less-frequent mowing than the cool-season species that agencies had previously used. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517743/original/file-20230327-24-1vtcmc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dense tall switchgrass plot with some leaves turning red." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517743/original/file-20230327-24-1vtcmc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517743/original/file-20230327-24-1vtcmc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517743/original/file-20230327-24-1vtcmc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517743/original/file-20230327-24-1vtcmc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517743/original/file-20230327-24-1vtcmc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517743/original/file-20230327-24-1vtcmc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517743/original/file-20230327-24-1vtcmc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Switchgrass is native to the U.S. Northeast. It grows very upright, can tolerate dry soil and drought, and produces seeds that are a good winter food source for birds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://extension.unh.edu/blog/2021/02/what-are-some-best-native-ornamental-grasses-landscapes">Peganum via University of New Hampshire Extension</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To ensure sound conservation practices, we wanted to use seeds produced locally. Seeds sourced from other locations would produce grasses that would interbreed with <a href="https://www.environment.fhwa.dot.gov/env_topics/ecosystems/roadside_use/vegmgmt_rdsduse18.aspx#">local ecotypes</a> – grasses adapted to New England – and disrupt the local grasses’ gene complexes. </p>
<p>At that time, however, there was no reliable seed supply for local ecotypes in New England. Only a few sources offered an incomplete selection of small quantities of local seeds, at prices that were too expensive for large-scale restoration projects. Most organizations carrying out ecological restoration projects purchased their bulk seeds mainly from large wholesale producers in the Midwest, which introduced non-local genetic material to the restoration sites.</p>
<h2>Improving native seed supply chains</h2>
<p>Many agencies are concerned that lack of a local seed supply could limit restoration efforts in New England. To tackle this problem, our team launched a project in 2022 with funding from the New England Transportation Consortium. Our goals are to increase native plantings and pollinator habitats with seeds from local ecotypes, and to make our previous recommendations for roadside restoration with native grasses more feasible.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1515085385423937538"}"></div></p>
<p>As we were analyzing ways to obtain affordable native seeds for these roadside projects, we learned about work by <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/eve-allen-b84a38188/">Eve Allen</a>, a master’s degree student in city planning at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. For her thesis, Allen used supply chain management and social network analysis to identify the best methods to <a href="https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/145170">strengthen the native seed supply chain network</a>. </p>
<p>Her research showed that developing native seed supplies would require cooperative partnerships that included federal, state and local government agencies and the private and nonprofit sectors. Allen reached out to many of these organizations’ stakeholders and established a broad network. This led to the launch of the regional Northeast Seed Network, which will be hosted by the Massachusetts-based <a href="https://www.nativeplanttrust.org/documents/1063/221027_Symposium_PR.pdf">Native Plant Trust</a>, a nonprofit that works to conserve New England’s native plants. </p>
<p>We expect this network will promote all aspects of native seed production in the region, from collecting seeds in the wild to cultivating plants for seed production, developing regional seed markets and carrying out related research. In the meantime, we are <a href="https://dailycampus.com/2023/02/10/university-of-connecticut-faculty-members-are-working-to-revive-native-plants-on-the-roadside-of-new-england/">developing a road map</a> for new revegetation practices in New England. </p>
<p>We aim to build greater coordination between these agencies and seed producers to promote expanded selections of affordable native seeds and make demand more predictable. Our ultimate goal is to help native plants, bees and butterflies thrive along roads throughout New England.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199049/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Native plants help damaged landscapes by stabilizing soil, fighting invasive species and sheltering pollinators. Two horticulture experts explain what they’re doing to help develop new seed sources.Julia Kuzovkina, Professor of Horticulture, University of ConnecticutJohn Campanelli, PhD Student in Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2022852023-03-22T15:07:53Z2023-03-22T15:07:53ZFreshwater ecosystems are becoming increasingly salty. Here’s why this is a concern<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516784/original/file-20230321-502-l9q2xx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C28%2C3844%2C2860&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Roads require de-icing strategies in northern regions, but this practice has negative effects on aquatic biodiversity.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Freshwater ecosystems around the world <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad3488">are becoming saltier and saltier</a>. Many human-driven factors contribute to freshwater salinization, including: irrigation, oil extraction, <a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1287569/mine-potasse-saskatchewan-sedley-environnement-pollution">potash mining</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/laccumulation-des-sels-de-deglacage-dans-les-lacs-menace-ceux-qui-y-vivent-179166">road de-icing</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, salts enter waterways. But as bad news never comes alone, the salts are often accompanied by a toxic cocktail of other pollutants, whose combined toxicological effects are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711234115">largely unknown</a>.</p>
<p>Although the problem of rising freshwater salinization went largely unaddressed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-2934-5_30">for many decades</a>, it has gained considerable attention<a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0507389102"> during the last 20 years</a>. </p>
<p>Scientists around the world are working together to understand the ecological impacts of increasing salinization on aquatic biodiversity and food webs. Our ultimate goal? To examine the adequacy of water quality toxicity thresholds for the protection of aquatic life. </p>
<h2>Salinization, a major problem</h2>
<p>Canada is home to a majority of the world’s freshwater resources, mostly concentrated in the provinces <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13603">of Ontario and Québec</a>, where close to 5 million tons of road salt are applied annually <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/pollutants/road-salts/code-practice-environmental-management.html">to de-ice roads</a>. </p>
<p>Combined with climate change and increasing frequency and duration of drought in many regions of the world, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1633">the problem is getting worse</a>. This is a major concern. Why? Because the availability of freshwater resources will become a critical factor for humanity <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011615108">over the next 50 years</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516786/original/file-20230321-16-qtyme2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516786/original/file-20230321-16-qtyme2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516786/original/file-20230321-16-qtyme2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516786/original/file-20230321-16-qtyme2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516786/original/file-20230321-16-qtyme2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516786/original/file-20230321-16-qtyme2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516786/original/file-20230321-16-qtyme2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The inequitable global distribution of surface freshwater resource availability. (Source: Philippe Rekacewicz, February 2006).</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Researchers from around the world mobilized</h2>
<p>We recently presented a series of articles in a special issue on freshwater salinization in the journal <em>Limnology and Oceanography Letters</em>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10307">published last February</a>. </p>
<p>In this special issue, we focus on sodium chloride (NaCl), the same molecule found in table salt, as a key agent of freshwater salinization. We highlight a series of co-ordinated field experiments, conducted by researchers in North America and Europe, that have addressed the impacts of freshwater salinization on <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/fr/article/zooplancton">zooplankton</a> (microscopic crustaceans) at a regional scale.</p>
<p>Zooplankton are an ecologically critical group in aquatic food webs and are often used as indicators to detect environmental change due to their sensitive ecological tolerances. </p>
<p>The main conclusions of these experiments are as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>Water quality guidelines in Canada and the United States (standards) do not adequately protect freshwater zooplankton, which could lead to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2115033119">an increase in the abundance of algae</a>, which the zooplankton feed on. This is because when zooplankton abundance decreases, especially for large grazers such as Daphnia, phytoplankton can proliferate under conditions of reduced predation; </li>
<li>Salinization of freshwater systematically leads to a loss of abundance and diversity of zooplankton <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10239">in all regions</a>; and </li>
<li>Individuals of the same zooplankton species do not all exhibit the same tolerance to salinity. Thus, this variation may interfere with our ability to predict community-level responses. Water quality guidelines may therefore need to be adjusted to become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10277">more region-specific</a>.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516423/original/file-20230320-16-m9r9yu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516423/original/file-20230320-16-m9r9yu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516423/original/file-20230320-16-m9r9yu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516423/original/file-20230320-16-m9r9yu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516423/original/file-20230320-16-m9r9yu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516423/original/file-20230320-16-m9r9yu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516423/original/file-20230320-16-m9r9yu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regional coverage of a co-ordinated field mesocosm experiment (Hintz et al. 2022b, Hébert et al. 2022; Arnott et al. 2022), with an example of one of the experiments that was conducted at Lac Croche (Québec, Canada) (Astorg et al. 2022) (Figure modified from Hintz et al. 2022b).</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A matter of regulation</h2>
<p>Many questions remain unanswered. However, what we do now know is that long-term water quality guidelines (Canada: 120 mg Cl⁻¹L⁻¹; United States: 230 mg Cl⁻¹L⁻¹) and in the short term (Canada: 640 mg Cl⁻¹L⁻¹; United States: 860 mg Cl⁻¹L⁻¹) for chloride concentrations are too high to protect aquatic life <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c02396">in Canada and in the United States</a>. For reference, a pinch of salt in a pot of water corresponds to approximately 0.3 mg of Cl⁻¹/L⁻¹. In other words, adverse effects are observed at much lower concentrations. Regulations in Canada and the United States should therefore be reviewed. In Europe, the water quality standards for salinity <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0019">for the protection of aquatic life in freshwater ecosystems are mostly absent</a>. </p>
<h2>The importance of taking concrete action</h2>
<p>Water quality guidelines for the protection of aquatic life are generally established using laboratory tests (called toxicological tests) <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10208">on a single species</a>. </p>
<p>However, aquatic habitats harbour a complex array of predators, prey, competitors, and pathogens, the interactions of which can limit our ability to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.01.066">predict the responses of communities and species to pollutants </a>. </p>
<p>Thus, the collective research published in this special issue also highlights the importance of understanding ecological responses in multi-species communities in natural settings to assess <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2115033119">the responses of freshwater life to human impacts</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516409/original/file-20230320-1978-kggv7i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516409/original/file-20230320-1978-kggv7i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516409/original/file-20230320-1978-kggv7i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516409/original/file-20230320-1978-kggv7i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516409/original/file-20230320-1978-kggv7i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516409/original/file-20230320-1978-kggv7i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516409/original/file-20230320-1978-kggv7i.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aerial view of a field enclosure experiment conducted in a chloride-sensitive lake in the Laurentians (Québec) (Astorg et al. 2022) (Photo credit: Étienne Laliberté).</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Overall, we should develop alternative applications and technologies that are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-011-1064-6">more sustainable and efficient</a>.</p>
<p>We also need to establish <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0019">more appropriate water quality guidelines</a> to improve controls on salts entering our freshwater environments to reduce adverse effects on aquatic life <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-021-00784-w">and the quality of our freshwater resources</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202285/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Although it has been considerably less studied than other environmental problems, salinization presents major challenges for biodiversity in freshwater and coastal areas.Alison Derry, Professeure agrégée, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Miguel Cañedo-Argüelles, Profesor lector en Ecología, Universitat de BarcelonaStephanie J Melles, Associate Professor, Spatial Ecology, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2006912023-03-22T12:38:29Z2023-03-22T12:38:29ZThe Amazon is not safe under Brazil’s new president – a roads plan could push it past its breaking point<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516477/original/file-20230320-2823-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=78%2C365%2C3071%2C1950&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fires are often set to clear land near roads in the Amazon.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-aerial-view-the-red-dust-of-the-br230-highway-known-news-photo/1166452675">Johannes Myburgh / AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Conservationists <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-cheered-new-climate-policies-after-brazil-election-2022-10-31/">breathed a sigh of relief</a> when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential election in the fall of 2022. His predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, had <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-03038-3">opened large parts of the Amazon region to business</a> by crippling enforcement of environmental laws and turning <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">a blind eye to land grabbing</a>. It should come as no surprise that deforestation showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-03038-3">a sharp uptick</a>.</p>
<p>However, while Lula oversaw a more than <a href="http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/dashboard/deforestation/biomes/legal_amazon/rates">70% drop in deforestation</a> during his first run as president in the early 2000s, the rainforest’s future remains deeply uncertain. </p>
<p>That’s in part because Brazilian administrations, whether of the right or left, have all promoted an ambitious project to boost exports and the economy called the Initiative for the Integration of the Regional Infrastructure of South America, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12610">or IIRSA</a>.</p>
<p>The initiative focuses on new roads, dams and industry that can threaten the region’s fragile rainforest ecosystem – and harm the world’s climate in the process.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trucks are lined up on a road bending between a burned area and trees, with a smaller road winding off to the side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trucks along the BR163 highway, a major transport route that has contributed to deforestation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aerial-view-of-trucks-queueing-along-the-br163-highway-in-news-photo/1174358903">Nelson Almeida / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The problem with infrastructure in the forest</h2>
<p>At first glance, IIRSA might sound like progress. Its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.009">goal is to improve</a> Amazonia’s economy by developing its resources and establishing better access to global markets. To accomplish this, the initiative plans to rehabilitate and extend the existing highway system and build dams, ports, industrial waterways and railroads.</p>
<p>However, evidence from my research in the Amazon over the past 30 years and by other scientists shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2007.00502.x">new roads lead to more deforestation</a>, putting extreme pressure on the rainforest. Outside of protected areas, nearly 95% of all deforestation occurs within <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.07.004">3.4 miles (5.5 kilometers) of a road</a> or less than two-thirds of a mile (1 km) from a river. </p>
<p>Deforestation <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1182108">rates fell</a> during Lula’s first presidency, primarily because Brazil <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024010">expanded its protected areas program</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.06.026">enforced environmental laws</a>. However, deforestation began to rise again during the administration of his protégé, President Dilma Rousseff. </p>
<p><iframe id="KG9l7" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KG9l7/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Both Lula and Rousseff furthered the IIRSA agenda by building dams on the Madeira River and <a href="https://theconversation.com/satellites-over-the-amazon-capture-the-choking-of-the-house-of-god-by-the-belo-monte-dam-they-can-help-find-solutions-too-182012">on the Xingu River</a>, where the Belo Monte dam diverted streamflow <a href="https://theconversation.com/satellites-over-the-amazon-capture-the-choking-of-the-house-of-god-by-the-belo-monte-dam-they-can-help-find-solutions-too-182012">vital to the survival of Indigenous communities</a>. </p>
<p>They also downsized protected areas to make way for their projects. Rousseff even <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/43964662.pdf">downsized Amazon National Park</a>, the first such park in Amazonia. In all, 181 square miles (469 square kilometers) were removed, close to 5% of the total area. The most scenic park landscape along the Tapajos River shoreline was taken to make way for dam construction. </p>
<p>Now back in office, Lula has signaled his approval of a key IIRSA project: the <a href="https://amazonasreporter.com.br/2023/02/com-articulacao-do-governador-wilson-lima-demandas-do-amazonas-sao-prioridade-no-plano-de-100-dias-do-governo-federal/">revitalization of BR-319</a>, a federal highway between Porto Velho and Manaus.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An animation shows primarily the highway in 2000 but deforestation quickly expanding off of it over the following years." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite images from 2000 to 2019 show how deforestation spread out from Highway BR-163 over 10 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145888/making-sense-of-amazon-deforestation-patterns">Lauren Dauphin/NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If this project is completed, it will open the central Amazon basin <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01718-y">to even more deforestation</a>.</p>
<p>I believe this should cause alarm. Research shows too much deforestation could push the forest <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2373566X.2022.2132978">over a tipping point</a> from which it can’t recover. No one knows exactly where the line is, but the vast Amazon that people picture today with its extraordinary biodiversity and dense forests would be no more. Such a catastrophe once seemed the bad dream of doomsayers, but there is mounting evidence that the forest is in trouble.</p>
<h2>The Amazonian tipping point</h2>
<p>The tropical rainforest sustains itself by <a href="https://leaf.leeds.ac.uk/news/recycle-rain-models/">recycling rain</a> to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration, which makes more moisture available. Rainfall recycling <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat2340">accounts for about 50%</a> of the basin’s precipitation today.</p>
<p>Too much deforestation could leave too little rainfall recycling to sustain the forest.</p>
<p>Scientists initially estimated the tipping point would occur <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.003">once about 40%</a> of the Amazon was deforested. That estimate has slipped downward over time given the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-brazils-rainforests-the-worst-fires-are-likely-still-to-come-122840">intensification of fires</a> and the onset of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00228">observable climate change in the basin itself</a>. Moreover, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01287-8">the forest shows diminishing resilience</a>, meaning it is less able to recover from climate extremes. Scientists have already observed widespread <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14413">shifts to more drought-tolerant tree species</a>.</p>
<p>Given the evidence, scientists have revised the tipping point to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat2340">deforestation as low as 20% to 25%</a>. Even if only a fifth of the forest is lost, the remainder could quickly degrade into an ecosystem of fire-adapted grasses and shrubby trees that look nothing like the massive ones native to the rainforest. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/c4-KpR1HrNs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NASA satellite images show the expansion of deforestation as roads are built in the Amazon.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Deforestation across all the Amazonian nations now stands <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.009">at a little over 16%</a>. In my view, this is far too close for comfort, especially with the momentum of the IIRSA program.</p>
<h2>More than one tipping point?</h2>
<p>The deforestation problem isn’t the only pressure on the forest – the Amazon is also dealing with the heat and drought of global warming. </p>
<p>Evidence suggests that global climate change may be enough to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105">push large parts of the rainforest to the brink</a>. One concern is that the dry season is getting longer, a shift that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302584110">appears to be driven by global warming</a>. This affects annual precipitation by reducing the number of rainy days and makes fire more damaging by extending the season when trees can easily burn.</p>
<p>Currently, dry season lengthening is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302584110">most pronounced in the Southern Basin</a>. However, changes in the southern rainfall pattern can reduce precipitation in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41489">wettest parts of the basin to the west</a>. One estimate suggests dry season lengthening <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2021.1842711">could cause a tipping point transition by 2064</a>.</p>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>Averting Amazonia’s looming tipping point catastrophe will require effort by the global community. In the past, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1248525">Brazil has controlled deforestation</a> through its forest code and by designating protected areas. </p>
<p>To step back from the brink, Lula would have to begin enforcing the forest code again, which limits deforestation on private property. He would also have to persuade the Brazilian Congress to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">stop creating incentives for land grabs</a> – the taking of public land for private uses. </p>
<p>Although Lula would have a difficult time reclaiming already grabbed land, expanding protected areas could reduce deforestation. Obviously, downsizing Amazonia’s existing protected areas would have to stop. </p>
<p>Finally, Lula would need to revisit the IIRSA program and pursue only those projects that bring economic development without excessive deforestation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A road with soybean fields on both sides and the edge of the dense Amazon rainforest in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The edge of a soy plantation shows the Amazon before and after deforestation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/soy-plantation-in-amazon-rainforest-near-santarem-news-photo/462376826">Ricardo Beliel/Brazil Photos/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Research I am currently working on with colleagues in the Ecuadorian Amazon focuses on a particular type of protected area, <a href="http://www.indigenousterritories.com/">the Indigenous Territory</a>. We argue that safeguarding Indigenous territorial rights provides Amazonia’s national governments with effective conservation allies. This is because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2018.1418994">Indigenous peoples want to defend their homelands</a>. Unfortunately, <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2022/08/fighting-extractive-industries-in-ecuador-qa-with-indigenous-activist-maria-espinosa/">national governments are not always supportive of Indigenous rights</a>, especially when their territories contain mineral wealth.</p>
<p>Slowing global climate change, however, will require international collaboration on an unprecedented scale. Luckily, a forum for this already exists with the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing the states and how hot spots show up along highways" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Areas with intense deforestation in 2021 largely aligned with major roadways.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://maaproject.org/2021/amazon-hotspots-2021/">Finer M, Mamani N, Spore J (2020) Amazon Deforestation Hotspots 2021. MAAP: 147</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><iframe id="p7Iuw" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/p7Iuw/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The people of the Amazon</h2>
<p>The Amazon Basin is home to 35 million people, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.009">many of whom live in poverty</a>. They have every right to desire a better life, and that’s one reason that IIRSA has a great deal of local support. </p>
<p>However, while the initiative might bring short-term benefits, it also risks destroying the very resources it was intended to develop. And that could leave the region in a state of poverty that cannot be alleviated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert T. Walker receives funding from The U.S. National Science Foundation. He is affiliated with The University of Florida, Center for Latin American Studies. </span></em></p>Nearly 95% of deforestation in the Amazon occurs within 3.5 miles of a road or near a river. Brazil’s plans to ramp up exports may be on a collision course with the forest.Robert T. Walker, Professor of Latin American Studies and Geography, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1998452023-03-09T13:40:14Z2023-03-09T13:40:14ZThe Biden administration has called for protecting mature US forests to slow climate change, but it’s still allowing them to be logged<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514058/original/file-20230307-20-4x3z0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C15%2C3438%2C2286&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An old-growth tree that was cut in Alaska's Tongass National Forest. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-old-growth-tree-that-was-cut-is-seen-in-the-tongass-news-photo/1241027768">Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Forests are critically important for slowing climate change. They remove huge quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022">30% of all fossil fuel emissions annually</a> – and store carbon in trees and soils. Old and mature forests are especially important: They handle droughts, storms and wildfires better than young trees, and they store more carbon.</p>
<p>In a 2022 executive order, President Joe Biden called for <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/04/27/2022-09138/strengthening-the-nations-forests-communities-and-local-economies">conserving mature and old-growth forests</a> on federal lands. Recently Biden <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-restores-roadless-protection-to-the-tongass-north-americas-largest-rainforest-164680">protected nearly half</a> of the Tongass National Forest in Alaska from road-building and logging. </p>
<p>The Biden administration is compiling an inventory of mature and old-growth forests on public lands that will support further conservation actions. But at the same time, federal agencies are initiating and implementing numerous <a href="https://www.climate-forests.org/_files/ugd/ae2fdb_b5a2315e3e8b42498b4c269730c3955a.pdf">logging projects</a> in mature and old forests without accounting for how these projects will affect climate change or forest species. </p>
<p>As scientists who have spent decades studying <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J2KWqAoAAAAJ&hl=en">forest ecosystems</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/William-Moomaw">climate change impacts</a>, we find that to effectively slow climate change, it is essential to increase carbon storage in these forests, not reduce it. A first step toward this goal would be to halt logging federal forests with relatively <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00326-0">high-biomass carbon per acre</a> until the Biden administration develops a plan for conserving them. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1632094558308962304"}"></div></p>
<h2>Balancing timber and climate change</h2>
<p>Many of the <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R42346.pdf">640 million acres</a> that the federal government owns and manages are used for multiple purposes, including protecting biodiversity and water quality, recreation, mining, grazing and logging. Sometimes these uses conflict with one another. </p>
<p>Legal mandates to manage land for multiple uses do not explicitly mention climate change, and federal agencies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3286">have not consistently factored climate change science</a> into their plans. However, at the beginning of 2023, the White House <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/ceq/">Council on Environmental Quality</a> directed federal agencies to consider the effects of climate change when they <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/01/09/2023-00158/national-environmental-policy-act-guidance-on-consideration-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-climate">propose major federal actions</a> that significantly affect the environment. </p>
<p>Some logging projects fall into this category. But many large logging projects that affect thousands of acres have been <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/36/220.6">legally exempted</a> from such analysis.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514055/original/file-20230307-2080-gczo6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Steep hills studded with evergreen trees and laced with narrow roads." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514055/original/file-20230307-2080-gczo6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514055/original/file-20230307-2080-gczo6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514055/original/file-20230307-2080-gczo6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514055/original/file-20230307-2080-gczo6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514055/original/file-20230307-2080-gczo6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514055/original/file-20230307-2080-gczo6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514055/original/file-20230307-2080-gczo6j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Logging roads crisscross steep logged slopes in Idaho’s Clearwater National Forest in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/logging-roads-remaining-after-a-timber-sale-crisscross-news-photo/1189427245">Don & Melinda Crawford/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s lost when old trees are cut</h2>
<p>Most forests in the continental U.S. have been harvested multiple times. Today, fewer than 5% of these forests <a href="https://doi.org/10.2737/WO-GTR-97">are more than 100 years old</a>. Old, very large trees are the ones that hold the most carbon, and harvesting forests is the main driver of forest carbon loss. </p>
<p>For example, in Oregon’s national forests east of the Cascades crest, a 1990s policy formerly spared trees larger than 21 inches in diameter – but the rule was rolled back in 2021 so that large trees could be cut. A recent analysis found that these larger trees comprised just 3% of all trees in the six national forests, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2020.594274">accounted for 42% of living tree carbon</a>. </p>
<p>In the Green Mountain National Forest in Vermont, federal officials have approved 40,000 acres of harvest since 2016, targeting many mature and old trees. One 14,270-acre area that was approved for harvest in 2019 contained <a href="https://www.climate-forests.org/_files/ugd/ae2fdb_b5a2315e3e8b42498b4c269730c3955a.pdf">more than 130 stands older than 100 years</a>. This project required the construction of 25 miles of logging roads, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40725-016-0044-x">can have harmful effects</a>, including fragmenting forests, polluting streams and making forests more vulnerable to human-caused wildfires. </p>
<p>Canada is also allowing large, mature trees to be harvested. In British Columbia, mature forests that include old-growth trees historically absorbed more carbon than they released to the atmosphere, resulting in a net carbon sink annually. But since 2002, these tracts have emitted more carbon than they removed from the atmosphere, primarily because of logging, beetle attacks and wildfires. According to British Columbia’s greenhouse gas emissions inventory, these forests now <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/climate-change/data/provincial-inventory">emit more carbon than the province’s energy sector</a>. </p>
<p>In eastern Canada, the Pacific Northwest and the southeastern U.S., timber companies have removed many old trees and replaced them with plantations that contain just one or two tree species. This shift has reduced the structural diversity of the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/forest-canopy">forest canopy</a> – the ecologically important layer formed by the crowns of trees – and the diversity of tree species. Losing old-forest habitat has also caused broad-scale <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-022-01737-8">population declines</a> among many forest bird species in eastern Canada, and is likely having the same effect in the U.S.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dLOG5jzvnow?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This National Park Service video explains how a second-growth forest – one that has grown back after being logged – is less diverse and healthy than an old, mature forest.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>More harvesting releases more carbon</h2>
<p>One argument forest product companies make to support logging is that wood can be regrown, and it <a href="https://bellwetherfp.com/lets-get-some-things-straight-about-logging-and-the-environment/#">releases less carbon dioxide to the atmosphere</a> than other building materials. Such claims often make optimistic assumptions that overstate the carbon benefits of harvesting trees by <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1e95">factors of 2 to 100</a>. </p>
<p>Some studies indicate that <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/features/thinning-forest-trees">thinning forests</a> by harvesting some trees and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1791">reintroducing low-intensity fires</a> can reduce the intensity of future wildfires, leaving more carbon stored in trees. But these studies don’t account for the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-016-0066-5">large amount of carbon</a> that is released to the atmosphere after trees are cut.</p>
<p>In a review published in 2019, we worked with colleagues to estimate how much carbon was contained in trees that were harvested in Washington, Oregon and California from 1900 through 2015, and what happened to it after the trees were logged. We calculated that just 19% of the harvested carbon was in long-lived wood products like timber in buildings. Another 16% was in landfills, and the remaining 65% was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab28bb">released into the atmosphere</a> as carbon dioxide.</p>
<p>In contrast, in 2011 the Australian state of Tasmania <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/state-and-territory-greenhouse-gas-inventories">suspended logging on half of its old-growth forest area</a>. Within less than a decade, Tasmania was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac661b">storing more carbon than it released</a> because it was avoiding harvest emissions and the mature trees it saved were accumulating so much carbon.</p>
<p>In the U.S. Pacific Northwest, implementation of the 1994 <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/r6/reo/overview.php#">Northwest Forest Plan</a>, which the Clinton administration developed to protect endangered species in old-growth forests on public lands, significantly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2014.11.023">increased carbon storage</a> over the next 17 years. In contrast, privately managed lands in the region accumulated virtually no additional carbon after accounting for losses from wildfire and harvesting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514062/original/file-20230307-2223-vtcifz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Truck loaded with massive logs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514062/original/file-20230307-2223-vtcifz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514062/original/file-20230307-2223-vtcifz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514062/original/file-20230307-2223-vtcifz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514062/original/file-20230307-2223-vtcifz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514062/original/file-20230307-2223-vtcifz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514062/original/file-20230307-2223-vtcifz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514062/original/file-20230307-2223-vtcifz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A logging truck in the Pacific Northwest in 1954. Since 1600, 90% of the original forests in what is now the U.S. have been logged.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/lumber-truck-pacific-northwest-usa-1950-news-photo/629442731">Universal History Archive via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The cheapest and simplest way to capture carbon</h2>
<p>President Biden has set a goal of reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/US-Long-Term-Strategy.pdf">net-zero by 2050</a> to avoid catastrophic climate change. To reach that goal, U.S. forests, lands and oceans will have to remove as much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as the nation emits from fossil fuels, industry and agriculture. </p>
<p>In the western U.S., our research shows that protecting half of the mature carbon-dense forests in zones that are relatively less vulnerable to drought and fire could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00326-0">triple carbon stocks and accumulation</a> on protected forests by 2050. A majority of these forests are on public lands.</p>
<p>The carbon dioxide that human activities are releasing into the atmosphere today will elevate global temperatures and raise sea levels <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812721106">for 1,000 years or more</a>, unless societies can find ways to remove it. In its 2022 climate assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that protecting existing natural forests was “<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter02.pdf">the highest priority for reducing greenhouse gas emissions</a>.” </p>
<p>Conserving forests is one of the lowest-cost options for managing carbon dioxide emissions, and it doesn’t require <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-oil-industrys-pivot-to-carbon-capture-and-storage-while-it-keeps-on-drilling-isnt-a-climate-change-solution-171791">expensive or complex energy-consuming technologies</a>. In our view, sufficient science exists to justify a moratorium on harvesting mature trees on federal lands so that these forests can keep performing their invaluable work.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199845/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Moomaw receives funding from the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. He is affiliated with the Woodwell Climate Research Center and the Union of Concerned Scientists. Moomaw has been a lead author of five major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beverly Law does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Protecting old and mature trees is the simplest and least expensive way to pull carbon out of the atmosphere – but proposed logging projects threaten mature stands across the US.Beverly Law, Professor Emeritus of Global Change Biology and Terrestrial Systems Science, Oregon State UniversityWilliam Moomaw, Professor Emeritus of International Environmental Policy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2005542023-03-02T14:25:20Z2023-03-02T14:25:20ZRoads and power lines put primates in danger: South African data adds to the real picture<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511943/original/file-20230223-703-kx83eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C17%2C3982%2C2886&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Samango monkey choosing to use a pole bridge instead of a ladder bridge.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Birthe Linden</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>About 25 million kilometres of new roads are expected to be built around the world by <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13717">2050</a>. Along with power lines and railways, roads cut through the landscape everywhere, disrupting ecosystems. This linear infrastructure prevents animals from moving safely around their habitat. It also reduces access to the resources they need, like food, sufficient space and mating partners. </p>
<p>This threat to biodiversity is a conservation issue globally, but especially in developing nations, where <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13717">90%</a> of new road construction is expected. </p>
<p>The African continent is home to unique biodiversity and extraordinary landscapes. Planned <a href="https://au.int/en/videos/20190101/agenda2063-infrastructure-and-energy-initiatives">infrastructure developments</a> will certainly <a href="https://theconversation.com/kenyas-huge-railway-project-is-causing-environmental-damage-heres-how-159813">threaten</a> some of the last, unspoilt wildernesses on the continent.</p>
<p>We’re particularly concerned about the future of primates. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) lists <a href="http://www.primate-sg.org/primate_diversity_by_region/">half of the continent’s 107 primate species as threatened</a>.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/search?query=Primates&searchType=species">IUCN</a> 18% of the world’s primates are directly affected by roads and railroads and 3% by utility and service infrastructure. These figures are based on limited research, though. The true impact is likely to be higher.</p>
<p>South Africa’s case shows why. None of the South African primate species currently have linear infrastructure listed as a threat under the IUCN. But this doesn’t mean they are not negatively affected. It just means that the lists need to be better informed.</p>
<p>South Africa is the only African country that has long-term, country-wide mortality datasets for both <a href="https://ewt.org.za/what-we-do/saving-species/wildlife-and-transport/">wildlife roadkill</a> and <a href="https://ewt.org.za/what-we-do/saving-species/wildlife-and-energy/">wildlife electrocution</a>. It’s collected by patrol staff, scientists and the general public (<a href="https://theconversation.com/tracking-science-a-way-to-include-more-people-in-producing-knowledge-159587">citizen scientists</a>). </p>
<p>Using this data, <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/ijfp/93/3-6/article-p235_4.xml">we investigated</a> how roads and power lines affect South Africa’s five primate species: the chacma baboon (<em>Papio ursinus</em>), the vervet monkey (<em>Chlorocebus pygerythrus</em>), the samango monkey (<em>Cercopithecus mitis</em>), the lesser bushbaby (<em>Galago moholi</em>) and the greater or thick tailed bushbaby (<em>Otolemur crassicaudatus</em>).</p>
<p>All species were affected, mostly by roads. We found a total of 483 deaths captured in the databases between 1996 and 2021. The number of deaths is likely to be a lot higher, due to under-reporting. Targeted species- and area-specific surveys are needed to refine this dataset. </p>
<p>The more mortality data is available, the better we will understand impacts, know where to focus interventions and inform future infrastructure developments to lessen the human impact on biodiversity.</p>
<p>We recommend that infrastructure like roads and power lines be more prominently recognised as a direct threat when developing Red List assessments.</p>
<h2>Primate deaths</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511944/original/file-20230223-24-c9wbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Furry black body of monkey on the verge with trees on either side of the road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511944/original/file-20230223-24-c9wbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511944/original/file-20230223-24-c9wbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511944/original/file-20230223-24-c9wbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511944/original/file-20230223-24-c9wbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511944/original/file-20230223-24-c9wbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511944/original/file-20230223-24-c9wbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511944/original/file-20230223-24-c9wbuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Samango monkey lying dead at the side of a road.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Birthe Linden</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most of the electrocution data used in our study was accessed from the <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/">Eskom</a> Central Incident Register.</p>
<p>Roadkill data for our study was available from two sources: the national database from the Endangered Wildlife Trust’s Wildlife and Transport Programme and our own observations. </p>
<p>Since 2011, the Endangered Wildlife Trust has received records from systematic patrols on certain highways and species -and area-specific expert research surveys. Citizen science data comes from all over the country including national and regional roads, with differing speed limits, widths and vehicle usage.</p>
<p>The area surveyed by systematic patrols amounts to 1,370 km, covering 0.2% of the country’s entire road network and 0.9% of the paved road network.</p>
<p>The highest number of deaths recorded was for vervet monkeys. This was to be expected as vervet monkeys have a much wider geographic range in South Africa than both bushbaby species and the samango monkey, so they have a greater chance of encountering roads and power lines. The greater (or thick tailed) bushbaby and the samango monkey are forest associated and forests cover only about 0.1% of South Africa’s land surface area.</p>
<p>Although the total of 483 primate deaths over 25 years may not appear very high, we can assume that many remain undetected. For example scavengers might remove the dead animals, or they could be hidden by dense vegetation on road verges. They could be in remote places, in the case of power lines, or severely injured animals might die later, a distance away from the road. For roads, the actual mortality rate could be <a href="https://we.copernicus.org/articles/3/33/2002/we-3-33-2002.html">12–16 times higher</a> than the detection rate.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/statistical-ecology-can-unlock-the-power-of-biodiversity-data-in-africa-171513">Statistical ecology can unlock the power of biodiversity data in Africa</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Solutions</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511945/original/file-20230223-703-ly4rn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Person facing away from the camera looks at a monkey walking along a pole in the tree canopy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511945/original/file-20230223-703-ly4rn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511945/original/file-20230223-703-ly4rn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511945/original/file-20230223-703-ly4rn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511945/original/file-20230223-703-ly4rn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511945/original/file-20230223-703-ly4rn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511945/original/file-20230223-703-ly4rn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511945/original/file-20230223-703-ly4rn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Samango monkey using a pole canopy bridge while observer looks on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Horta Lacueva</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Encouragingly, there is more and more <a href="https://brill.com/display/post/news/special-issue-of-folia-primatologica-highlights-the-importance-of-canopy-bridges-to-habitat-connectivity-globally.xml">research</a> showing that primates, as well as many other tree-dwelling species, accept man-made canopy bridges as a means to cross gaps in their habitat. </p>
<p>In South Africa we conducted an <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320719319172">experiment in the field</a> to test what kind of canopy bridge primates would use to cross gaps between trees. We found that all five South African primate species used the canopy bridges offered to them. The design they preferred was a solid pole bridge, rather than a ladder bridge. </p>
<p>More and more canopy bridges of various kinds are being provided in different countries. But <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/ijfp/93/3-6/article-p197_1.xml">research</a> shows that Africa is lagging behind other continents in doing this, and there are no canopy bridges in South Africa. We suggest that all infrastructure development projects should try to give attention to maintaining the integrity of landscapes, for example by providing bridges for animals.</p>
<h2>Public participation</h2>
<p>We all need and use linear infrastructure in our day to day lives, so we all carry some level of responsibility. Hence, we encourage people to record wildlife mortalities and submit them to publicly available repositories such as <a href="https://www.inaturalist.org/">iNaturalist</a> or the <a href="https://www.gbif.org/">Global Biodiversity Information Facility</a>. </p>
<p>A new <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/13/10/1692">Global Primate Roadkill Database</a> has been developed by Laura Praill at Oxford Brookes University and colleagues and is <a href="https://gprd.mystrikingly.com/">available to the public</a>.</p>
<p>Public awareness and participation is essential to lessen the human impact on biodiversity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200554/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Birthe (Bibi) Linden is affiliated with the SARChI Chair on Biodiversity Value and Change in the Faculty of Science, Engineering and Agriculture at the University of Venda and the Lajuma Resesarch Centre. She receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation (NRF).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Collinson is affiliated with The Endangered Wildlife Trust and the South African Research Chair in Biodiversity Value & Change, School of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, University of Venda, Thohoyandou, South Africa. She is also a member of the IUCN: Transport Working Group.</span></em></p>Researchers encourage citizen scientists to contribute to datasets on animal deaths caused by infrastructure. This will inform efforts to reduce the human impact on biodiversity.Birthe (Bibi) Linden, Postdoctoral Researcher (University of Venda) & Associated Researcher (Lajuma Research Centre), University of VendaWendy Collinson, Research Fellow: South African Research Chair in Biodiversity Value & Change, University of VendaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1946282023-01-08T19:00:08Z2023-01-08T19:00:08ZRoad to nowhere: why the suburban cul-de-sac is an urban planning dead end<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501459/original/file-20221216-16-2kw7io.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5375%2C3653&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The cul-de-sac is a suburban trap. It’s virtually useless as a road, doesn’t support public transport, cycling or walking, and doesn’t work well as a play or gathering place. Its literal translation from the French is “bottom of a sack” – which sounds a lot less glamorous, you’ll agree.</p>
<p>And yet we persist with them. The calls for more housing that resonate across many urban societies almost always include plans to repurpose broad swathes of agricultural land into single-family housing serviced by twisting strands of cul-de-sac-capped roads. </p>
<p>But there is a danger in embracing this type of development. Despite the French name, the cul-de-sac as it exists today is not even from Europe. Like many modern transport nightmares, it originated in the car-oriented suburban planning of 1950s America, a defence against the <a href="https://www.archio.co.uk/blog/2015/12/01/cul-de-sac-desirable-enclave-or-dead-end/">perceived threat of the inner city</a>.</p>
<p>Cul-de-sacs were envisioned initially as <a href="https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1030&context=cplan_papers">small offshoots from more traditional grid roads</a>. They eventually morphed into isolated loops at the end of curvilinear patterns where only residents of the suburb would travel. They are the antithesis of connectivity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Developers favour cul-de-sacs partly because they allow for building more single-family houses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>A developer’s dream</h2>
<p>In pushing the cul-de-sac, land and housing developers were merely continuing with a misguided notion that began with suburbs in general: those endless landscapes of single-family homes on large sections were promoted as a way to re-engage with the community and escape the rat race of city living. </p>
<p>But studies have shown residents of suburbs have much <a href="https://www.tesd.net/cms/lib/PA01001259/Centricity/Domain/1114/BowlingAlone.pdf">lower rates of civic engagement</a> than those living in a more urban environment.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-cars-alone-wont-save-the-planet-well-need-to-design-cities-so-people-can-walk-and-cycle-safely-171818">Electric cars alone won’t save the planet. We'll need to design cities so people can walk and cycle safely</a>
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<p>Developers told us cul-de-sacs were more efficient because they allowed higher densities. While not entirely a lie, it isn’t the whole truth either. Developers favour cul-de-sacs partly because they allow for building <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5455743">more single-family houses</a> on oddly shaped land or closer to natural features than would otherwise be possible with a grid. Cul-de-sac suburbs often completely ignore topography or nature in their development.</p>
<p>Developers also favour cul-de-sacs because they require up to <a href="https://www.accessmagazine.org/spring-2004/reconsidering-cul-de-sac/">50% less road</a>, fewer pipes, streetlights and footpaths compared to traditional grid street patterns. </p>
<p>Snaking, disconnected cul-de-sac streetscapes mean less road to construct compared to a well-connected grid with more complex street hierarchies. But that also means fewer kilometres of footpaths, bike lanes and through-streets for public transport.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The very nature of cul-de-sacs means residents often require a car.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Costly and impractical</h2>
<p>Suburban single-family housing on “greenfield” development is cheap to build and has a high profit margin. Unfortunately, disconnected, car-centric, large-home suburbs result in higher per capita infrastructure costs, vehicle ownership and travel time costs, and higher overall purchase prices. And the real cost of suburban living is met by <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2019/10/18/why-your-sprawling-low-density-suburb-may-be-costing-your-local-government-money/">governments, councils and residents</a>. </p>
<p>True, people are often attracted to cul-de-sacs because they’re seen as having minimal traffic. Ironically, the very nature of cul-de-sacs means residents <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-09-19/the-problem-with-cul-de-sac-design">often require a car</a> as their primary mode of transport. People searching for a refuge from the noise, pollution and danger of cars have backed themselves – literally – into a corner.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/triumph-of-the-mall-how-victor-gruens-grand-urban-vision-became-our-suburban-shopping-reality-172393">Triumph of the mall: how Victor Gruen’s grand urban vision became our suburban shopping reality</a>
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<hr>
<p>The isolated and circuitous nature of cul-de-sac suburbs means there is often no access to public transportation. And active modes like walking, cycling and scooting are impractical. A lack of alternatives to the car means suburban residents have higher rates of car ownership – an added expense inner-city residents often don’t face.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, children might be only a few streets away from their friends, but in a jumble of winding roads and dead ends it’s <a href="https://hbr.org/2010/05/back-to-the-city">virtually impossible</a> to walk or cycle quickly to each other’s houses. Even that time-honoured rite of passage – walking alone to school – is impractical in this type of development.</p>
<p>Because these winding roads without any obvious focal point also often have low traffic volumes, they can’t support land uses other than low-density residences. As a result, even grabbing milk and bread from the dairy can involve a trip of several kilometres.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-planning-is-now-on-the-front-line-of-the-climate-crisis-this-is-what-it-means-for-our-cities-and-towns-193452">Urban planning is now on the front line of the climate crisis. This is what it means for our cities and towns</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>No exit</h2>
<p>Compared to the straight lines of traditional developments, the curvilinear roads that sweep through modern subdivisions might seem relaxing, even pastoral. But lurking around every curve is a hidden danger. </p>
<p>Lines of sight are significantly reduced, making every car backing out of its driveway a <a href="https://usa.streetsblog.org/2011/06/07/cul-de-sacs-are-killing-us-public-safety-lessons-from-suburbia/">risk for other motorists</a>. For pedestrians and people on bikes, this lack of visibility presents a significant danger.</p>
<p>New developments also tend to have wider streets and fewer intersections, encouraging faster driving. Higher speeds and lower visibility can be a deadly combination. Studies have shown fatal car crashes are <a href="https://link-springer-com.ezproxy.auckland.ac.nz/article/10.1057/udi.2009.31">270% more likely</a> in newer, cul-de-sac-laden developments compared to older traditional neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>All in all, giving something a French name might make it sound classy, but a cul-de-sac is really just a dead end. And that’s exactly what cul-de-sac subdivisions are, too – an urban planning dead end.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194628/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Welch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Developers love the cul-de-sac, but for the rest of us it’s one of the least practical and efficient ways to design streets.Timothy Welch, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1907952022-09-27T13:12:01Z2022-09-27T13:12:01ZNorthern Ghana is underdeveloped because of underinvestment during colonial rule, not geography<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485351/original/file-20220919-7117-csy9xg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Northern Ghana was treated as a periphery outpost by colonial administrators.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ghana’s most important development problem is arguably the disparity between the north and south of the country. The north is acutely underdeveloped, trailing the south in practically all metrics of development.</p>
<p>Several inequality <a href="https://www.unicef.org/ghana/media/531/file/The%20Ghana%20Poverty%20and%20Inequality%20Report.pdf">reports</a> have consistently labelled the northern region as one of concern. Its rate of poverty level decline has remained very slow: from a poverty rate of 55.7% in 2006 to 50.4% in 2012. Southern Ghana enjoys a <a href="https://www.undp.org/ghana/publications/ghanas-multidimensional-poverty-index-report">lower poverty incidence</a> at 45%.</p>
<p>Explanations for the underdevelopment of the north often underscore its geography and climate. The north is dry, unsuited to growing cash crops, and lacking mineral resources. Another school of thought considers the impact of the colonial experience from 1897 till independence. The north was sidelined by the British colonial administration.</p>
<p>I have been looking into this to see which kind of explanation is most satisfactory. My <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00220388.2022.2113066">study</a> of the economic history of Ghana specifically examines the colonial roots of the north-south development divide. </p>
<p>I estimated the current development disparity between the two regions and examined the contribution of colonial public investments in education, health and infrastructure. The south received almost all the colonial public investments. </p>
<p>I found that the effects of past colonial investments persist now – even in the few northern locations where they were made. They still strongly determine current development outcomes in Ghana. </p>
<p>The findings suggest that colonial investments were equally productive in the north and the south. The current status of the north would be different had it received a fairer share of colonial investments. The findings also suggest how development could be achieved in future.</p>
<h2>Ghana’s north and south contrasted</h2>
<p>I found that an average location in the north is at least 51% less developed than one in the south. The level of development was based on satellite images of light density at night – a precise and objective measure.</p>
<p>More than 70% of the northern population live in disadvantaged rural areas. The region <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272325050_The_Contours_of_Poverty_in_Northern_Ghana_Policy_Implications_for_Combating_Food_Insecurity">scores lower</a> than the south in most development terms. For example, in the Greater Accra Region, 22.5% of the population is poor in several ways, according to the <a href="https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/migration/gh/UNDP_GH_MPI_Report_2020.pdf">UNDP’s 2020 Inequality Report</a>. </p>
<p>The arid north is primarily savannah woodland with no significant potential for cash crop cultivation. The mineral-rich and wetter south, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00220388.2022.2113066">covering about 56%</a> of the country, produces and exports cash crops. The population of the south (24.5 million) is four times that of the north.</p>
<p>Other arguments about the regional differences concern their history. It’s said that prior to colonial conquests, the north was more prosperous and developed, having built a fortune on trade and industry. That changed through colonial practices. The colonial state administered the north as a “periphery” and the south as a “core”. Colonial investments and expenditures in the north were kept at a bare minimum.</p>
<p>I explored the spatial distribution of colonial public investments in education, health and infrastructure. For example, northern Ghana had no class one road as at 1931 and no railway throughout the colonial period. Average distances to a colonial railroad were 324km and 59km for northern and southern areas respectively. The average distance to a class one road in 1931 was about 196km in the north and 32km in the south. </p>
<p>Colonial investments, railways in particular, stimulated local economic activities and development in the south. </p>
<p>In 1901 the north had no school or hospital. The south had 125 schools and eight places with at least one hospital. By 1931 the number of schools in the south had risen to 325 and places with hospitals to 24. But the number of schools in the north had only doubled to eight, and only six places had at least one hospital.</p>
<h2>Colonial effects persist</h2>
<p>I found that past colonial investments still strongly determine contemporary development in Ghana. Places closer to locations of past colonial investments are still relatively more developed today. </p>
<p>Even though the north received far fewer colonial investments, areas closer to the locations of colonial investments in the north are more developed today than other areas in the north. So colonial investments were equally productive in the north. </p>
<p>Current development outcomes in Ghana are also more heavily driven by colonial-era factors than by post-independence factors. </p>
<p>There are several reasons why the effects of past colonial investments persist.</p>
<p>First, once an investment had been made in a location, subsequent investments followed in the same location. It would be more cost-effective or more convenient to extend an existing railway line, for example, than to survey unexplored terrain for new railway lines. </p>
<p>Second, colonial investments brought associated benefits, prolonging their effects. If railway lines stimulated population growth in an area, more health facilities and schools would be provided. </p>
<p>Third, colonial investments like railway lines, schools and hospitals had a long physical duration. </p>
<p>Fourth, colonial investments had high returns because they were made in places that had not previously received such investments. </p>
<p>My study leads me to conclude that if more investments had been made in the north, the region could today be more like the south in terms of development.</p>
<h2>Diagnosis of the problem</h2>
<p>There have been numerous programmes to develop the north since Ghana gained political independence in 1957. Unfortunately, most either underperformed or failed. This is because the potential of the north has not been properly diagnosed. </p>
<p>The north’s historical fortune was oriented towards trade and industry. At the onset of colonial rule, the modernisation of its trade system depended on the extension of railway lines to the region. But the north still has no railways connecting it to the south. Roads to the south are also in a deplorable condition. </p>
<p>Development policies in the north have targeted food production instead of infrastructural developments. But food production can’t transform the north without better transport links. </p>
<p>The construction of the <a href="https://new-ndpc-static1.s3.amazonaws.com/CACHES/PUBLICATIONS/2016/05/03/1-MASTER+PLAN+GHANA+FINAL+REPORT+-+Fin4.pdf">Ghana Railway Masterplan</a>, designed in 2013 to connect the north and the south, has not started. The mooted <a href="https://projectsportal.afdb.org/dataportal/VProject/show/P-GH-DB0-018">Eastern Corridor Road</a> project has never seen concrete progress either. These two projects would arguably be the most important routes to transform the north.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190795/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iddrisu Mohammed Kambala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ghana’s northern region would be more developed now had it received a fairer share of colonial investments.Iddrisu Mohammed Kambala, PhD Candidate, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1897612022-09-07T19:20:09Z2022-09-07T19:20:09ZIntense heat and flooding are wreaking havoc on power and water systems as climate change batters America’s aging infrastructure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483337/original/file-20220907-14-w43w1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C3000%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Volunteers distributed bottled water after Jackson, Mississippi's water treatment plant failed during flooding in August 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cases-of-bottled-water-are-handed-out-at-a-mississippi-news-photo/1242850326?adppopup=true">Brad Vest/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 1960s and 1970s were a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1746-1049.1986.tb00082.x">golden age of infrastructure development</a> in the U.S., with the expansion of the interstate system and widespread construction of new water treatment, wastewater and flood control systems reflecting national priorities in public health and national defense. But infrastructure requires maintenance, and, eventually, it has to be replaced.</p>
<p>That hasn’t been happening in many parts of the country. Increasingly, extreme heat and storms are putting roads, bridges, water systems and other infrastructure under stress.</p>
<p>Two recent examples – an intense heat wave that pushed California’s <a href="https://www.kcra.com/article/live-coverage-california-rolling-outages-pge-smud/41097480">power grid to its limits</a> in September 2022, and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/01/us/mississippi-water.html">failure of the water system</a> in Jackson, Mississippi, amid flooding in August – show how a growing maintenance backlog and increasing climate change are turning the 2020s and 2030s into a golden age of infrastructure failure.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/ceae/paul-chinowsky">civil engineer</a> whose work focuses on the impacts of climate change on infrastructure. Often, low-income communities and communities of color like Jackson see the least investment in infrastructure replacements and repairs.</p>
<h2>Crumbling bridge and water systems</h2>
<p>The United States is consistently falling short on funding infrastructure maintenance. A report by former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker’s Volcker Alliance in 2019 estimated the U.S. has a <a href="https://www.volckeralliance.org/resources/americas-trillion-dollar-repair-bill">US$1 trillion backlog of needed repairs</a>.</p>
<p>Over 220,000 bridges across the country – about 33% of the total – <a href="https://artbabridgereport.org/">require rehabilitation or replacement</a>.</p>
<p>A water main break now occurs somewhere in the U.S. <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/">every two minutes</a>, and an estimated 6 million gallons of treated water are lost each day. This is happening at the same time the western United States is implementing water restrictions amid the driest 20-year span in 1,200 years. Similarly, drinking water distribution in the United States relies on over 2 million miles of pipes that have limited life spans.</p>
<p>The underlying issue for infrastructure failure is age, resulting in the failure of critical parts such as pumps and motors.</p>
<p>Aging systems have been blamed for failures of the water system in Jackson, <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/577861021/MDE-Report#from_embed">wastewater treatment plants in Baltimore</a> that leaked dangerous amounts of sewage into the Chesapeake Bay and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/catastrophic-flooding-underway-as-dam-failures-in-michigan-force-evacuation.html">dam failures in Michigan</a> that have resulted in widespread damage and evacuations.</p>
<h2>Inequality in investment</h2>
<p>Compounding the problem of age is the lack of funds to modernize critical systems and perform essential maintenance. Fixing that will require systemic change.</p>
<p>Infrastructure is primarily a city and county responsibility financed through local taxes. However, these entities are also <a href="https://www.nlc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/NLC_2016_Infrastructure_Report.pdf">dependent on state and federal funds</a>. As populations increase and development expands, local governments have cumulatively had to <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2018-10/54539-Infrastructure.pdf">double their infrastructure spending</a> since the 1950s, while federal sources remained mostly flat.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483327/original/file-20220907-9722-659s2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483327/original/file-20220907-9722-659s2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483327/original/file-20220907-9722-659s2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483327/original/file-20220907-9722-659s2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483327/original/file-20220907-9722-659s2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483327/original/file-20220907-9722-659s2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483327/original/file-20220907-9722-659s2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2018-10/54539-Infrastructure.pdf">Congressional Budget Office</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Inequity often underlies the growing need for investment in low-income U.S. communities.</p>
<p>Over <a href="http://uswateralliance.org/sites/uswateralliance.org/files/publications/Closing%20the%20Water%20Access%20Gap%20in%20the%20United%20States_DIGITAL.pdf">2 million people</a> in the United States lack access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation. The <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e80f1a64ed7dc3408525fb9/t/6092ddcc499e1b6a6a07ba3a/1620237782">greatest predictor of those who lack this access</a> is race: 5.8% of Native American households lack access, while only 0.3% of white households lack access. In terms of sanitation, studies in predominantly African American counties have <a href="https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/local/solutions-journalism/2018/07/26/what-solutions-wastewater-treatment-crisis-rural-south-and-black-belt/820533002/">found disproportionate impacts</a> from nonworking sewage systems.</p>
<p><iframe id="9CpR1" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9CpR1/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Jackson, a majority-Black state capital, has dealt with water system breakdowns for years and has repeatedly <a href="https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/urgent-request-for-assistance-1614888467.pdf">requested infrastructure funding</a> from the state to upgrade its struggling water treatment plants.</p>
<h2>Climate change exacerbates the risk</h2>
<p>The consequences of inadequate maintenance are compounded by climate change, which is accelerating infrastructure failure with increased flooding, extreme heat and growing storm intensity.</p>
<p>Much of the world’s infrastructure was designed for an environment that no longer exists. The historic precipitation levels, temperature profiles, extreme weather events and storm surge levels those systems were designed and built to handle are now exceeded on a regular basis.</p>
<p>Unprecedented rainfall in the California desert in 2015 <a href="https://dot.ca.gov/-/media/dot-media/programs/risk-strategic-management/documents/mm-2016-q3-project-spotlight-a11y.pdf">tore apart a bridge</a> over Interstate 10, one of the state’s most important east-west routes. Temperatures near 120 degrees Fahrenheit (49 C) forced the <a href="https://phys.org/news/2022-03-extreme-disrupts-air-climate-worse.html">Phoenix airport to cancel flights</a> in 2017 out of concern the planes might not be able to safely take off. </p>
<p>A heat wave in the Pacific Northwest in 2020 <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/northwest-us-braces-hottest-day-intense-heat-wave-78543625">buckled roads and melted streetcar cables</a> in Portland. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/us-heat-wave-force-delays-amtrak-service/story?id=86664902">Amtrak slowed its train</a> speeds in the Northeast in July 2022 out of concern that a heat wave would cause the overhead wires to expand and sag and rails to potentially buckle.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Washed out road in Yellowstone National Park" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483341/original/file-20220907-22-ty1x7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483341/original/file-20220907-22-ty1x7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483341/original/file-20220907-22-ty1x7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483341/original/file-20220907-22-ty1x7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483341/original/file-20220907-22-ty1x7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483341/original/file-20220907-22-ty1x7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483341/original/file-20220907-22-ty1x7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fast-moving floodwater obliterated sections of major roads through Yellowstone National Park in June 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/yellowstonenps/52167350392">Jacob W. Frank/National Park Service</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-09-02/southern-california-braces-for-a-scorching-labor-day-weekend-as-crews-continue-battling">Power outages</a> during California’s September 2022 heat wave are another potentially life-threatening infrastructure problem.</p>
<h2>The rising costs of delayed repairs</h2>
<p>My research with colleagues shows that the vulnerability of the national transportation system, energy distribution system, water treatment facilities and coastal infrastructure <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03179-w">will significantly increase over the next decade</a> due to climate change.</p>
<p>We estimate that rail infrastructure faces additional repair costs of $5 billion to $10 billion annually by 2050, while road repairs due to temperature increases could reach a cumulative $200 billion to $300 billion by the end of the century. Similarly, water utilities are facing the possibility of <a href="https://www2.nacwa.org/images/stories/public/2009-10-28ccreport.pdf">a trillion-dollar price tag by 2050</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483338/original/file-20220907-9639-29nv9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483338/original/file-20220907-9639-29nv9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483338/original/file-20220907-9639-29nv9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483338/original/file-20220907-9639-29nv9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483338/original/file-20220907-9639-29nv9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483338/original/file-20220907-9639-29nv9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483338/original/file-20220907-9639-29nv9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A city bus was caught and several people were injured when a bridge collapsed in Pittsburgh in January 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vehicles-including-a-port-authority-bus-are-left-stranded-news-photo/1238039302">Jeff Swensen/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>After studying the issue of climate change impacts on infrastructure for two decades, with climate projections getting worse, not better, I believe addressing the multiple challenges to the nation’s infrastructure requires systemic change.</p>
<p>Two items are at the top of the list: national prioritization and funding.</p>
<p>Prioritizing the infrastructure challenge is essential to bring government responsibilities into the national conversation. Most local jurisdictions simply can’t afford to absorb the cost of needed infrastructure. The recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-new-incentives-for-clean-energy-arent-enough-the-inflation-reduction-act-was-just-the-first-step-now-the-hard-work-begins-188693">infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act</a> are starting points, but they still fall short of fixing the long-term issue.</p>
<p>Without systemic change, Jackson, Mississippi, will be just the start of an escalating trend.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189761/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Chinowsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A heat wave that pushed California’s power grid to the limit, and the water system failure in Jackson, Mississippi, are just two examples.Paul Chinowsky, Professor of Civil Engineering, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.