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As uncertain as 2019-20 is, The Conversation’s team of 20 leading economists are in broad agreement that the outlook isn’t good. Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will also have to deal with the unexpected. Wes Mountain/The Conversation

Buckle up. 2019-20 survey finds the economy weak and heading down, and that’s ahead of surprises

The Conversation’s distinguished panel predicts unusually weak growth, dismal spending, no improvement in either unemployment or wage growth, and an increased chance of recession.
Things will continue to look good enough for long enough to help the government fight the election. Beyond that, the Conversation Economic Panel is worried. Wes Mountain/The Conversation

No surplus, no share market growth, no lift in wage growth. Economic survey points to bleaker times post-election

The Conversation has assembled a forecasting team of 19 academic economists from 12 universities across six states. Together, they assign a 25% probability to a recession within two years.
Markets have risen in response to President-elect Trump, particularly in the pharmaceutical and financial industries. Brendan McDermid/Reuters

What’s behind the Trump bump in markets

World markets bounced back surprisingly quickly after Trump’s election. Here are a few theories as to why.
Employees of a Japanese foreign exchange company keep a close eye on the progress of the presidential election. Toru Hanai/Reuters

The markets tell us President Trump is worse than Brexit

Some might say that financial markets over-reacted to the Brexit vote and the market reaction to the US election is the same. But Brexit won’t happen till 2019, a Trump victory has already happened.
It may take a magic wand from the RBA (or the Turnbull government) for Australia to escape a recession. Sam Mooy/AAP

All eyes on the Aussie dollar as Australia stalks recession

Volatility is not going away any time soon, and if the US Fed decision plays the wrong way on the Australian dollar, our central bank could soon be back in the jawboning business.
Can China continue to float our boats as the global economy teeters? AAP

Amid global market turmoil, can China keep our economy afloat?

Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan has seized on positive comments about Australia’s economy in an International Monetary Fund report as evidence the country can endure another global financial crisis. The report…

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