tag:theconversation.com,2011:/fr/topics/slovenia-7695/articlesSlovenia – The Conversation2021-07-05T15:17:53Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1637672021-07-05T15:17:53Z2021-07-05T15:17:53ZConcern over rule of law as Slovenia takes over EU presidency<p>At the beginning of July, Slovenia took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union from Portugal. The six-month role is focused on being a neutral arbiter in coordinating and facilitating member state contributions within EU decision-making processes. </p>
<p>This is clouded by the reputation of Slovenia’s prime minister, Janez Janša, for indulging in <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/11/election-2020-trump-biden-slovenia-jansa-lost/">conspiracy theories and alliances</a> with leaders such as former US president Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán, the prime minister of Hungary. Slovenia’s time at the helm of the Council could enable one of the EU’s highest decision-making organs to ignore anti-democratic developments across the European Union. </p>
<p>Janša and his party, the SDS (Slovenian Democratic Party), formally belong to the political mainstream, as members of the European People’s Party. This centre-right organisation is the largest political party in the European Parliament and European Council. However, since gaining power in 2020, Janša’s government has been extensively criticised for trying to suppress potential checks on his power and influence. This has drawn the country into debates about the “rule of law” within the EU, a concept referring to respect for due process, plurality in politics and media and the upholding of civic freedoms such as free speech. </p>
<p>Janša’s government has been accused of undermining some of these principles. In this vein, Janša has labelled journalists reporting on his government as “<a href="https://twitter.com/jjansasds/status/1182660786344337408">presstitutes</a>” and withheld funding from <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/slovenias-sta-a-symbol-of-resistance-within-the-country/a-57757060">STA, the national press agency</a>. His government is also currently <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2021/06/08/slovenia-criticised-for-delay-in-choosing-eu-graft-fighting-prosecutors/">blocking</a> the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, an EU anti-corruption agency, from beginning efforts to prosecute fraud involving EU funds. This while Janša <a href="https://sloveniatimes.com/report-pm-jansa-formally-indicted-over-2005-real-estate-deal/">faces charges</a> of corruption himself. </p>
<h2>Similarities with Orbán</h2>
<p>Janša’s interest in controlling the media is shared with Orbán, who leads the <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/hungary/freedom-world/2021">only non-“free” country</a> in the EU according to human rights oganisation Freedom House. Orbán and his party, Fidesz, are infamous proponents of “<a href="https://journalofdemocracy.org/articles/illiberal-democracy-and-the-struggle-on-the-right/">illiberal democracy</a>” and have focused on dismantling the rule of law in Hungary over the past decade.</p>
<p>Janša and Orbán’s ties go beyond simple similarities. Hungarian oligarchs allied to Orbán have invested millions of euros into Slovenian media – arrangements that have circumvented Slovenia’s media laws through a <a href="https://mediaobservatory.net/radar/behind-foreign-investments-slovenian-media-market">sophisticated network</a> of intermediaries and shell companies. This is reminiscent of how <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/29/world/europe/hungary-orban-media.html">Orbán controls Hungarian media</a>, and it is clear he sees Janša, a former journalist, as a worthy ally and investment in his quest to expand his sphere of influence.</p>
<p>Despite concerns from the <a href="https://rm.coe.int/final-version-annual-report-2021-en-wanted-real-action-for-media-freed/1680a2440e">Council of Europe</a> and democratic watchdog <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/slovenia/nations-transit/2021">NGOs</a>, many do not see any problems with Slovenia assuming the presidency of the EU Council. Currently (and unlike Orbán) Janša lacks a parliamentary super-majority, and his multiparty government has limited powers to dramatically reshape the Slovenian state. Many fellow EPP member parties and politicians believe Slovenian issues are mainly related to domestic political posturing and <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-conservatives-stand-by-controversial-slovenian-pm-european-peoples-party-janez-jansa/">do not represent</a> a systemic issue for the EU. </p>
<p>But it is important to keep in mind that they said the very same things about Hungary <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/how-viktor-orban-broke-the-eu-and-got-away-with-it-hungary-rule-of-law/">a few years ago</a>. Many in the EPP genuinely believed that waiting and just tolerating Orbán in their fold would make these issues go away. This did not happen. In the end, Orbán <a href="https://euobserver.com/political/151119">left</a> the EPP in March 2021, just before it was about to expel him and his party after 11 years of appeasement and Hungary’s slide towards authoritarianism. </p>
<p>Orbán, a former liberal flagbearer during Hungary’s democratisation in the 1990s, now focuses on <a href="https://hungarianspectrum.org/2021/06/02/will-viktor-orban-succeed-in-realigning-the-far-right-forces-in-the-european-parliament/">courting far-right and neo-fascist parties</a> to form a parliamentary group within the European Parliament to promote his authoritarian ideals and policies.</p>
<h2>The Council under Janša</h2>
<p>With regards to the Council, it is important to recall that a single dissenting government can significantly disrupt EU decision-making processes in some policy areas. This is especially true in the case of the rule of law itself, where Hungary and Poland have been mutually helping each other hamper disciplinary action <a href="https://euobserver.com/opinion/152161">directed at them</a> within EU institutions. The continuation of this process, as well as discussions around the upcoming annual “<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_19_4169">Rule of Law Review Cycle</a>” reports which review associated issues across all of the EU, will require focused leadership from a supposedly neutral Council presidency.</p>
<p>For the second half of 2021, Janša’s government will be at the helm of these discussions. It is telling that Janša generally perceives such concerns simply as <a href="https://www.gov.si/en/news/2021-02-26-letter-of-prime-minister-janez-jansa-to-the-president-of-the-european-comission-ursula-von-der-leyen/">politically motivated witch hunts</a>. While this was how he dismissed concerns about the rule of law in Slovenia, he might apply the same logic within EU-wide debates about the matter. It is not implausible to suggest that this perception will shape the way Janša approaches the case of his ally and business partner, Orbán. </p>
<p>Janša’s view of current rule of law procedures as the <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/slovenian-prime-minister-janez-jansa-battles-eu-slovenia-european-council-presidency/">“[application of] double standards”</a> can be seen as a statement of intent to shield countries such as Hungary and Poland from repercussions.</p>
<p>It is too early to tell how Janša’s perceptions will shape Slovenia’s approach to the EU Council presidency. Nevertheless, Janša’s domestic policies and his political and economic proximity to Orbán paint a worrying picture about his views on political pluralism and civic freedoms. </p>
<p>All EU member states should proceed with significant caution. The erosion of democracy across the EU and the resulting democratic backsliding finally spurred the EU to start acting against anti-democratic developments, such as through the launch of the Rule of Law Review Cycle. Meaningful action in this field is impossible if member states in leading positions stymie processes or define the problem out of existence by trivialising such critiques. </p>
<p>The EPP party family have a heightened responsibility in this context as well. Tolerating Orbán and Fidesz among the ranks of EPP lent legitimacy to their anti-democratic project on the European stage for a decade. Janša should not be able to walk the same road without consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163767/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nándor Révész does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Slovenia takes over the rotating EU Council presidency, other member states should not let Janez Janša follow in Hungary’s authoritarian footsteps.Nándor Révész, Teaching Fellow and PhD Student in Politics/IR, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/998292018-07-18T18:46:38Z2018-07-18T18:46:38ZThe US is a whole lot richer because of trade with Europe, regardless of whether EU is friend or ‘foe’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228250/original/file-20180718-142428-1tmzpx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trump and Merkel: Friends, foes or frenemies?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Trump-NATO-Summit/cef1edd9372b4fa695463faf2e375518/2/0">AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump recently questioned the value of the long-standing United States-Europe alliance. When asked to identify his “biggest foe globally,” <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-interview-cbs-news-european-union-is-a-foe-ahead-of-putin-meeting-in-helsinki-jeff-glor/">he declared</a>: “I think the European Union is a foe, what they do to us in trade.”</p>
<p>This view is consistent with his recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-us-tariffs-will-affect-different-parts-of-the-eu-97651">turn against trade</a> with Europe but ignores the immense benefits that Americans have reaped due to the strong economic and military alliance between the U.S. and Europe – benefits that include nothing less than unprecedented <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/20798962.pdf">peace</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/rules-based-trade-made-the-world-rich-trumps-policies-may-make-it-poorer-97896">prosperity</a>. </p>
<p>As such, Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/trade-wars-50746">trade war</a> with Europe and his hostility toward broader Western alliances such as NATO portend a future of diminished standards of living – as a direct result of less trade – and greater global conflict – <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=L53fR-TusZAC&oi=fnd&pg=PR5&ots=Ey5rtq9LrE&sig=MKMMiEv_We3mXsRTdx-045JA_0A#v=onepage&q&f=false">indirectly due to</a> reduced economic integration. In the words of columnist Robert Kagan, “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/everything-will-not-be-okay/2018/07/12/c5900550-85e9-11e8-9e80-403a221946a7_story.html">things</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/16/opinion/trump-nato-european-union-history.html">will</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/07/16/putin-trump/">not be ok</a>.” </p>
<p>Some of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=fMoODlwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">my research</a> focuses on the impact of increased international trade on U.S. standards of living, which <a href="http://gregcwright.weebly.com/uploads/8/2/7/5/8275912/rising-tide-weai.pdf">I show</a> are causally linked during the late 20th century. Most of the trade in this period occurred among rich nations and was dominated by the U.S.-Europe relationship. </p>
<p>By calling Europe a “foe,” Trump makes clear that he simply doesn’t understand why rich countries trade with one another, which, to be fair, is something that also puzzled economists for many years. </p>
<h2>Why rich countries trade</h2>
<p>Though in some ways it seems obvious why the U.S. and Europe trade with one another – some might enjoy Parmigiana from Italy, while others prefer Wisconsin cheddar – economists initially <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2009/12/basics.htm">had trouble</a> explaining exactly why there was so much trade among rich countries. Surely, they thought, the U.S. can produce good quality cheese at a cost that is similar to producers in Italy, and vice versa, so why would we need to go abroad to satisfy our palettes? </p>
<p>In 1979, economist Paul Krugman provided a clear answer that would eventually <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2008/press.html">win him</a> the Nobel Prize in economics. The first part of his answer was simple but important and boils down to the fact that consumers benefit from having a wide range of product varieties available to them, even if they are only small variations on the same item. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">in 2016</a> the top U.S. exports to the EU were aircraft (US$38.5 billion), machinery ($29.4 billion) and pharmaceutical products ($26.4 billion). The top imports from the EU seem almost identical: machinery ($64.9 billion), pharmaceutical products ($55.2 billion) and vehicles ($54.6 billion). Although the product categories clearly overlap, there are important differences in the types of pharmaceuticals and machinery that are sold in each market. Consumers benefit from having all these options available to them. </p>
<p>The second part of Krugman’s answer was that, by producing for both markets, companies in Europe and the U.S. could reap greater economies of scale in production and lower their prices as a result. This has been found to indeed <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/Economics/courses/boileau/4309/Paper%203.pdf">be what happens</a> when countries trade. And more <a href="http://cid.econ.ucdavis.edu/Papers/Feenstra_Weinstein_jpe.pdf">recent research</a> has shown that increased foreign competition can also lower domestic prices. </p>
<p>These benefits have been quantified. For instance, the gains to the U.S. from new foreign product varieties and lower prices over the period 1992 to 2005 were equal to <a href="http://cid.econ.ucdavis.edu/Papers/Feenstra_Weinstein_jpe.pdf">about one percent of U.S. GDP</a> – or about $100 billion. </p>
<p>In short, Krugman’s answer emphasized the extent to which international trade between equals increases the overall size of the economic pie. And no pie has ever grown larger than the combined economies of the U.S. and Europe, which now <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/united-states/">constitute</a> half of global GDP.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228276/original/file-20180718-142426-1jshe9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pfizer Inc. is headquartered in New York. Both the U.S. and the EU import and export pharmaceuticals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/On-the-Money-Cheaper-Viagra/a7eb4d8ad5b14563b3705646a0ca8107/4/0">AP Photo/Richard Drew</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Largest trading partner</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html">European Union</a> is the largest U.S. trading partner in terms of its total bilateral trade and has been for the past several decades.</p>
<p>Overall, the U.S. <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">imported $592 billion</a> in goods and services from the EU in 2016 and exported $501 billion, which represents about 19 percent of total U.S. trade and also represents about 19 percent of American GDP. </p>
<p><iframe id="t6bEs" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/t6bEs/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A key feature of this trade is that <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/united-states/">almost a third of it</a> happens within individual companies. In other words, it reflects multinational companies shipping products to themselves in order to serve their local market, or as inputs into local production. This type of trade is critical as it serves as the backbone of a <a href="http://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/4262/EU-US_trade_and_investment_talks:_Why_they_matter.html">vast network</a> of business investments on both sides of the Atlantic, <a href="https://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2017/12-December/1217-activities-of-us-multinational-enterprises.pdf">supporting</a> hundreds of thousands of jobs. </p>
<p>It is also a network that propels the global economy: the EU or U.S. serves as the primary trading partner for nearly every country on Earth.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228254/original/file-20180718-142414-1muxzy3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A ship to shore crane prepares to load a shipping container onto a container ship in Savannah, Ga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/US-China-Tariffs/453b3c52caa348cab5bb628a37a19d3e/9/0">AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shipping and new institutions</h2>
<p>The U.S.-Europe trade relationship also laid the groundwork for the modern system of international trade via two distinct innovations: new shipping technologies and new global institutions.</p>
<p>On the technological front, the <a href="http://www.worldshipping.org/about-the-industry/history-of-containerization">introduction of the standard shipping container</a> in the 1960s set off the so-called second wave of globalization. This under-appreciated technology was conceived by the U.S Army during the 1950s and was perfected over Atlantic shipping routes. In short, by simply standardizing the size and shape of shipping containers, and building port infrastructure and ships to move them, <a href="http://eprints.brighton.ac.uk/14568/1/JIE%20accepted%20manuscript%20online%20version%20%281%29.pdf">massive economies of scale</a> in shipping were realized. As a result, today container ships the size of small cities are routed via sophisticated logistics to huge deepwater ports around the world. </p>
<p>These routes eventually made it profitable for other countries to invest in the large-scale port infrastructure that could handle modern container ships. This laid the groundwork for the eventual growth of massive container terminals throughout Asia, which now <a href="https://maritimeintelligence.informa.com/content/top-100-success">serve as the hubs</a> of the modern global supply chain. </p>
<p>At the same time that these new technologies were reducing the physical costs of doing business around the world, the U.S. and Europe were also creating <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/anthologies/2011-12-14/archives-international-institutions">institutions</a> to define new international rules for trade and finance. Perhaps the most important one was the post-war General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs, which eventually became the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-wto-99274">World Trade Organization</a>, creating the first rules-based multilateral trade regime. A large body of research shows that these agreements have <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/7362891.pdf">increased trade</a> and, more importantly, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/joes.12087">raised incomes</a> around the world.</p>
<p>Overall, these advancements contributed to the <a href="http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ass/article/viewFile/36581/20566">subsequent enrichment</a> of hundreds of millions of workers in Asia, Latin America and Africa by helping to integrate them into the global economy.</p>
<p>And when the world gets richer, the U.S. also benefits for many of the same reasons noted above: demand for U.S. products increases as incomes rise around the world, as does the variety of products the U.S. can import, and the prices of these goods typically fall. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228252/original/file-20180718-142423-1tf5lke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A cartoon Trump blimp flies as a protesters speak out against Trump’s visit to London.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Britain-Trump-Visit/66460331f9b84b1c8e573d985f6c9dbd/18/0">AP Photo/Matt Dunham</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Taking the long view</h2>
<p>But it appears that President Trump sees the U.S. on the losing end of a failed relationship. </p>
<p>It is unsurprising that tensions with Europe have come to the forefront over perceived imbalances in trade, particularly for a president who is not afraid <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-go-it-alone-approach-to-china-trade-ignores-wtos-better-way-to-win-93918">to take long-time allies to task</a>. </p>
<p>This is because U.S. trade policy <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/normalizing-trade-relations-with-china-was-a-mistake/562403">has arguably been overly optimistic</a> in recent years, particularly with respect to China, whose accession to the WTO proved to be much more disruptive to labor markets around the world than was predicted. Previous U.S. administrations preferred patience over confrontation, leading to a perhaps inevitable backlash that has spilled into other relationships, such as the one with Europe. </p>
<p>However, the U.S. relationship with Europe is clearly different, primarily because it is longstanding and has been largely one of equals. But also because their shared values mean that there are many non-economic issues — such as the spread of liberal democracy and the promotion of human rights — that get advanced by the close economic ties. </p>
<p>It’s important to not underestimate what is at stake if the U.S.-Europe alliance is allowed to falter. Americans are likely in the midst of the <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/we-enjoy-the-most-peaceful-period-on-earth-ever_us_57ab4b34e4b08c46f0e47130">most peaceful era</a> in world history, and global economic integration, led from the beginning by the U.S. and Europe, <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/globalisation-promotes-peace">has been</a> a key contributing factor. Global extreme poverty is also <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty">at its lowest point</a> ever, again in large part due to globalization. </p>
<p>These are the byproducts and legacies of seven decades of expanding international trade and should not be taken for granted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Wright does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The president, who called the European Union a ‘foe’ following a series of meetings in Europe, may not realize just how much Americans have gained from their relationship with Europe.Greg Wright, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of California, MercedLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/937562018-03-29T11:50:48Z2018-03-29T11:50:48ZSlovakia’s political crisis: the murder that forced a whole government to resign<p>Slovakia has become the latest country in Eastern Europe to face a major political crisis. But while regional neighbours such as Poland and Hungary have been clashing with the EU over their perceived illiberalism, for Slovakia, the pressure on the government has come from the country’s own citizens. </p>
<p>The tension has been such that the entire cabinet of prime minister Robert Fico had to resign in a single day. </p>
<p>The story began when police discovered the bodies of Slovak journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancé, Martina Kušnírová, in their home in the village of Veľká Mača, about 60 km east of the capital, <a href="https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20768866/investigative-journalist-and-fiancee-killed-in-their-house.html">Bratislava</a>. Both had died of gunshot wounds in what appeared to be a targeted assassination.</p>
<p>Kuciak, who worked as a reporter for the online news website Aktuality.sk, had been working on an article implicating prominent members of the ruling coalition party <a href="https://www.facebook.com/smersd/">SMER-SD</a> in tax fraud. After his death, Aktuality.sk published Kuciak’s final, <a href="https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/568007/talianska-mafia-na-slovensku-jej-chapadla-siahaju-aj-do-politiky/">unfinished article</a>. It detailed alleged ties between several high-ranking officials with the Calabrian crime syndicate, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-the-ndrangheta-and-why-its-time-to-bust-some-myths-about-the-calabrian-mafia-54075">‘Ndrangheta</a>. They included Viliam Jasaň, the secretary of the State Security Council of Slovakia, and Mária Trošková, chief adviser to prime minister Robert Fico. Both have denied any wrongdoing.</p>
<h2>The stack of cash</h2>
<p>Given that all major political parties have been implicated in incidents of crony-capitalism and corruption since Slovakia’s independence in 1993, Kuciak’s revelations hardly came as a surprise to the public. The fact that he lost his life reporting them, however, was a profound shock. Fico’s disdain for members of the independent press, who he previously described as “prostitutes, idiots and snakes”, was already <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/slovakia-black-hole-of-europe/">well known</a>. But this was a whole new level. People felt that criminal elements in Slovak society were now able to operate with impunity. </p>
<p>The initial reaction of the Slovak government appeared to confirm this. In their first appearance after the murders, Fico, interior minister Robert Kaliňák and head of policing Tibor Gašpar failed to address questions about the accusations the deceased journalist had made. Instead, they offered a reward of €1m for information about the murder. Bizarrely, they chose to display the money to the reporters and public in the form of a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43220275">large pile of bank notes</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"968850046979575808"}"></div></p>
<p>The incident was widely criticised as an arrogant and vulgar piece of political theatre. It turned out to be the first of several political miscalculations leading to a complete loss of the ruling coalition’s moral and political authority.</p>
<p>The second came just a few days later when SMER-SD’s junior coalition partner, the Most–Híd party, broke rank and demanded Kaliňák resign. Kaliňák refused. His recalcitrance opened a rift between Fico and president Andrej Kiska, a political independent. The latter called for a substantial cabinet reshuffle or early elections. The former responded by accusing the president of conspiring with the Hungarian-American billionaire George Soros to undertake a <a href="https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20774275/fico-mentions-soros-says-he-will-deal-with-politics-later.html">coup d’état</a>. The comments were met with derision by both the press and the public, and caused a <a href="https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20774275/fico-mentions-soros-says-he-will-deal-with-politics-later.html">rift</a> between Fico and his coalition partners.</p>
<h2>The last straw</h2>
<p>Faced with the ruling coalition’s blatant unwillingness to relinquish power, the public cast aside their usual conservatism and political apathy. Under the banner “for a decent Slovakia”, citizens gathered in 48 towns on March 9 to call for an independent investigation of the murders, and for Kaliňák to resign. In Bratislava alone, 60,000 people turned out to demonstrate – the largest gathering of citizens since the <a href="https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/571169/online-protesty-po-vrazde-jana-kuciaka-a-martiny-kusnirovej/">Velvet Revolution</a> overthrew the government of Czechoslovakia. These protests have highlighted the breakdown in trust between the public and political representatives.</p>
<p>Finally bowing to pressure, Kaliňák tendered his resignation on March 12. Fico and his entire cabinet followed suit on March 15, leaving deputy prime minister Peter Pellegrini to form a new government.</p>
<p>Even this did not satisfy the Slovak public. Protesters gathered in bigger numbers two days later to demand early elections. Speaking at the protests in Bratislava, the former speaker of the Slovak parliament, František Mikloško reminded the crowd that popular movements had overthrown the Slovak government before – namely in 1989. “The revolution started by the parents has to be finished by their children,” he declared, as the audience held their house keys aloft and shook them – a gesture associated with the <a href="https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20782425/enough-of-smer-people-chanted-in-streets.html">Velvet Revolution</a>.</p>
<p>But while the protests constituted a public vote of no confidence in SMER-SD, which has dominated the Slovak political scene since the mid-2000s, the prospect of meaningful change in the immediate future is small. </p>
<p>Before resigning, SMER-SD secured a parliamentary mandate for Pellegrini to form a new cabinet, which crushed public hopes for early elections. Fico remains head of SMER-SD, leading to the widespread perception that Slovakia will now be governed by what is effectively a puppet cabinet until the next elections in 2020.</p>
<p>Even if Slovaks were to successfully force the early fall of the current governing coalition, they face a stark choice. The liberal political opposition is small and fragmented. The latest opinion polls also show that the crisis has pushed more voters towards support for parties with strong nationalist, <a href="http://www.focus-research.sk/files/n225_Volebne%20preferencie%20politickych%20stran_marec2018.pdf">right-wing orientations</a>.</p>
<p>While protests have been read by some as a recommitment to Western democratic values and a step away from the populism and “illiberal democracy” of neighbouring <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/opinion/slovakia-protest-democracy-corruption.html">Poland and Hungary</a>, it seems that for now, the revolution will have to wait.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93756/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicolette M Makovicky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The story began when police discovered the bodies of Slovak journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancé – both had been shot dead.Nicolette M Makovicky, Lecturer in Russian and East European Studies, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/450072015-08-18T14:04:11Z2015-08-18T14:04:11ZFirst foreign band to play North Korea is famed for its ‘fascism’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92244/original/image-20150818-12447-8qiwdz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C0%2C596%2C388&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Friend or fascist?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laibach</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 70th anniversary of the Korean peninsula’s liberation from colonial Japan is being celebrated in Pyongyang with two concerts by the Slovenian rock band <a href="http://www.laibach.org">Laibach</a>. This will be the first performance of a foreign band in North Korea.</p>
<p>The choice of band may seem appropriate. Formed in 1980, Laibach is known more for its controversial aesthetics and performances than for its music. Its early stage shows took on the characteristics of mass totalitarian rallies, and its name has fascist associations, being the German word for the capital of Slovenia, Ljubljana, used by the Nazis during the occupation of the country. </p>
<p>Despite the incendiary name, the actual position of the group has always remained stolidly opaque. This has meant that Laibach has frequently been accused of both far-left and far-right political stances. They remain resolutely ambiguous, saying in a notorious TV <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ArtSJ1cQ-M">interview</a> in 1983: “We are fascists as much as Hitler was a painter.”</p>
<p>To get to grips with the band, a little history is necessary. In 1941, Slovenia was divided among Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Hungary. Under Nazi rule, Slovenians faced complete annihilation of their national identity: Slovene books and monuments were destroyed, and names, like that of Ljubljana, were Germanised. After the defeat of Nazi Germany, Slovenia became part of Yugoslavia. The partisan movement that helped liberate Yugoslavia from the Nazis was not only celebrated, but became central to the official narratives of the new country.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92246/original/image-20150818-12418-1b7c4w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92246/original/image-20150818-12418-1b7c4w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92246/original/image-20150818-12418-1b7c4w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92246/original/image-20150818-12418-1b7c4w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92246/original/image-20150818-12418-1b7c4w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92246/original/image-20150818-12418-1b7c4w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92246/original/image-20150818-12418-1b7c4w1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The band in 1983.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laibach</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mussolini on stage</h2>
<p>Laibach appeared in Slovenia the early 1980s. Their flagrant use of the Nazi-era name angered those who still remembered the war. Yugoslav partisan veteran organisations voiced their disapproval of the group through a public letter-writing campaign, many of which were published in the popular press.</p>
<p>Laibach did not take heed. At the Novi Rock Festival in Ljubljana in 1982, Laibach took it up a notch with a spectacle that came to be characteristic of their concerts: a militant authoritarian performance, the lead singer playing the role of a dictator. Extreme noise, sirens, horns and smoke bombs aurally assaulted the audience, accompanied by film footage of German atrocities, Nazi mass rallies and the partisan resistance and socialist propaganda. The band’s performances effectively restaged the relationship between the individual and the totalitarian regime. But they provided no explanation for this contradictory imagery, leaving audience members to interpret it for themselves.</p>
<p>Audiences who went to their concerts expecting to be entertained were disappointed. Laibach’s performances subverted the notion of a rock concert, taking spectators well out of their comfort zones. Audiences not yet familiar with these strategies responded with equal violence: at the 1982 concert, the lead singer, Tomaž Hostnik (who was dressed as Mussolini in full military gear) was hit in the face with a bottle. Instead of responding, he maintained his authoritarian stance, and continued to perform with <a href="http://www.stravs.net/index.php?section=52">blood dripping from his head</a>.</p>
<p>Soon after, and especially in the aftermath of the infamous Hitler quip, the Ljubljana City Council, citing the group’s “abuse” of the name of the city, banned the group from performing in public while using the name Laibach.</p>
<h2>Fascist or forward thinking?</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92248/original/image-20150818-12454-7grm22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92248/original/image-20150818-12454-7grm22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=669&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92248/original/image-20150818-12454-7grm22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=669&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92248/original/image-20150818-12454-7grm22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=669&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92248/original/image-20150818-12454-7grm22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92248/original/image-20150818-12454-7grm22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92248/original/image-20150818-12454-7grm22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Laibach in 2003.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laibach</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Given this background, the reasons for their invitation to North Korea may seem obvious. But since the 1980s, following their international success and a better understanding of their strategies, much of the disapproval with the band has dissipated. Even their material has changed: under communism their focus was on political regimes, whereas under capitalism their focus has been popular culture and music. The concert in Pyongyang shifts these expectations again: it’s reportedly to feature their interpretations of songs from the musical The Sound of Music, along with traditional Korean songs. </p>
<p>These days the general consensus is that Laibach took on fascist imagery in order to provoke discussion on politics and forms of government – something that the North Korean leaders have perhaps not cottoned on to. So the fact that they are the first foreign rock group to play a gig in North Korea is perfect.</p>
<p>Laibach’s metamorphosis from being viewed as a fundamentally fascist band to a subversive, forward-thinking one is largely down to the Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Žižek – one of the group’s strongest defenders. In 1993, he penned an <a href="http://xenopraxis.net/readings/zizek_laibach.pdf">essay</a> explaining how Laibach’s excessive adoption of the aesthetics, choreography, militarism and intensity of totalitarianism could be seen as anti-fascist. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92250/original/image-20150818-12414-2m9vhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92250/original/image-20150818-12414-2m9vhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92250/original/image-20150818-12414-2m9vhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92250/original/image-20150818-12414-2m9vhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92250/original/image-20150818-12414-2m9vhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92250/original/image-20150818-12414-2m9vhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92250/original/image-20150818-12414-2m9vhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Laibach, 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laibach</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Instead of overtly critiquing or mocking fascism, Laibach imitates its strategies and copies its aesthetics faithfully. Žižek considers that the cynical distance allowed by an ironic performance would actually represent conformity, in that it acknowledges the system. The system requires the appearance of dissent, through criticism, as a validation of its existence, in order to function. So true subversion, Žižek postures, only comes through direct copying, as Laibach does. </p>
<p>Laibach’s attitude toward fascism is deliberately ambiguous – in presenting fascist symbols and postures without commentary, they can be interpreted as being either for or against its authoritarianism. </p>
<p>By walking the line between the two positions, Laibach forces the audience to choose which side they are on. In this sense, their show can function simultaneously as an obedient act for the regime, as well as offering audience members the freedom to decide. And for this reason, there could not be a better selection of band to play this concert in Pyongyang.</p>
<p>While the government and administration of North Korea will be pleased to have found a band that seems to support its centralised, single-party government, others may suspect that this is one massive joke played on the Supreme Leader. Neither would be correct. As Žižek has said, Laibach “does not function as an answer, but a question”. And questions are far often far more subversive than answers.</p>
<p><em><a href="http://www.laibach.org/follow-laibach-to-north-korea/">Laibach’s Sound of Music concerts</a> will take place in the Kim Won Gyun Music Conservatory and the Kum Song Music School in Pyongyang, North Korea on August 19 and 20.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45007/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Bryzgel receives funding from The Arts and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p>The Slovenian band Laibach are best known for their use of fascist iconography – but they’re far more subversive than this might indicate.Amy Bryzgel, Lecturer in Film and Visual Culture, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/259292014-05-14T05:16:33Z2014-05-14T05:16:33ZEU election: Slovenia facing uncertainty after PM’s departure<p>Most contenders for the European elections in Slovenia waited until the very last moment to submit their candidate lists to the electoral commission. <a href="http://www.sloveniatimes.com/16-lists-in-slovenia-vying-for-european-parliament-seats">There will be 16 entrant lists this time</a>, compared to 12 in 2004 and 13 in 2009. </p>
<p>All seven parliamentary parties are putting forward candidates, including the three biggest ones – centre-left <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_Slovenia">Positive Slovenia</a>, which leads the ruling coalition at the time of writing but has no MEPs; the right-leaning <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovenian_Democratic_Party">Slovenian Democratic Party</a>, currently has three MEPs, and the centre-left <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democrats_%28Slovenia%29">Social Democrats</a> – two MEPs. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democracy_of_Slovenia">Liberal Democracy of Slovenia</a> will support a list of candidates under the leadership of its existing MEP, Jelko Kacin. </p>
<p>All of the current Slovenian MEPs, apart from two from the Slovenian Democratic Party, Zofija Mazej Kukovič and Romana Jordan, are running for re-election. The other parties with existing MEPs are <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Slovenia">New Slovenia</a> (Christian democrats) and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zares">Zares-Social Liberals</a>, which have one each.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48177/original/gxnbhcnm-1399640397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Europa.eu.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Among the numerous other entrants, a civil society organisation submitted a list under the leadership of former president of the Slovenian Court of Audit, the country’s highest court for supervising state public spending. It is believed to be entering under the name <a href="http://www.evropa.gov.si/en/content/latest-news/news/news/soltes-only-familiar-face-on-i-believe-slate/4ff23e9e0f3c61277ce8da1ec5f56d9d/">List of Igor Šoltes</a>. </p>
<p>There will also be a candidate list submitted by a citizens’ action group called <a href="http://sanjska.si/dream-job-citizens-action.pdf">Dream Job</a>. It is overseeing campaigns by eight citizens who were drawn out of a hat after expressing an interest in getting what they saw as a “dream job” in the European parliament. The group’s purpose was to show that drawing lots in this way can give better results than party selection processes. </p>
<h2>Not much sign of the women</h2>
<p>Only two candidate lists will be led by women – Zares-Social Liberals and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Left_%28Slovenia%29">United Left</a>. Meanwhile only one serving minister will stand for election, from the liberal <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civic_List_%28Slovenia%29">Civic List</a> party. </p>
<p>Officially the electoral campaign in Slovenia started a month before the elections, a campaign activities start beforehand. This year has been different because two other domestic events have overshadowed proceedings. First, <a href="http://www.sloveniatimes.com/archive-referendum-comedy-continues">a lot of time has been devoted</a> to a referendum on the amendments to the law on archives and archival material. The referendum was initiated by the Slovenian Democratic Party, and in February/March a battle ignited over the date that it would be held. </p>
<p>While the Slovenian Democrats demanded it be held simultaneously with the European elections, coalition parties strongly opposed the idea. Most recently the <a href="http://www.sloveniatimes.com/archives-referendum-to-be-held-on-8-june">plan is</a> to hold the referendum on June 8. </p>
<h2>Government turmoil</h2>
<p>A more dramatic distraction was a leadership battle within the centre-left Positive Slovenia party, <a href="http://www.dw.de/slovenia-prime-minister-alenka-bratusek-resigns/a-17612637">which only days ago unseated</a> the party leader and Slovenian prime minister, Alenka Bratušek. Her opponent was Zoran Janković, who has been pushing for a return to the Positive Slovenia throne after temporarily stepping down a year ago over findings by the anti-corruption commission that suggested he was involved in possible corrupt activity. </p>
<p>Things came to a head at the party congress when Janković won an internal leadership election on April 26. Bratušek resigned on May 5 after only 13 months at the helm. Even before the result was announced, Positive Slovenia’s coalition partners the Social Democrats, Civic List and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_of_Pensioners_of_Slovenia">Democratic Party of Retired Persons of Slovenia</a> had said they would dissolve the coalition if Bratušek was defeated, so the country appears to have entered a period of upheaval. </p>
<p>She is being tipped to leave Positive Slovenia to start a new party and launch a fresh push for power. If this now leads to a general election, the question now is whether Slovenia will see a repeat of 2004. In that year the European elections were held several months before a general election and the debate became all about national topics rather than European ones. </p>
<h2>Poll with it</h2>
<p>So far the signs are that Positive Slovenia is heading for a very bad result. According to <a href="http://www.balkaneu.com/opinion-poll-bratusek-vote-confidence/">public opinion polls conducted by daily newspaper Delo</a> on April 7 and 8, the party standings for the European elections were: the Slovenian Democratic Party would win with 20.8%, followed by the Slovenian National Party with 12.1%, and the joint list of New Slovenia and Slovenian People’s Party with 11.5%. </p>
<p>Positive Slovenia, whose leading European candidate is prominent economist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo%C5%BEe_Mencinger">Jože Mencinger</a>, who describes himself as a eurosceptic, polled just 4.6%. The biggest decline in comparision with the previous poll conducted by the same newspaper in mid-March recorded the Social Democrats’ support shrinking from 10.6% to 4.4%. It seems the main reason for this is entrance of List of Igor Šoltes into the game, receiving 8.7% support. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48178/original/3nzkb85r-1399640434.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Telephone poll of 700 people taken April 22-24.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://metapolls.net/category/europe/euroelections-2014/slovenia/#.U2zPHvldXsY">Ninamedia via Metapolls.net</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.sta.si/en/vest.php?s=a&t=0&id=2003205">Another poll was conducted</a> by pollster Ninamedia and weekly newspaper Mladina a couple of weeks later. It predicted the winner would be the Slovenian Democratic Party with 12% support, followed by joint list of New Slovenia and the Slovenian People’s Party with 10.3%. It put Positive Slovenia in a distant fourth place behind List of Igor Šoltes. </p>
<p>Despite this uncertainty, voter turnout is not predicted to be high. The polls say that approximately 30% of voters will definitely vote, compared to a 28% turnout in both 2004 and 2009.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alenka Krasovec receives funding from the Research Agency of the Republic of Slovenia</span></em></p>Most contenders for the European elections in Slovenia waited until the very last moment to submit their candidate lists to the electoral commission. There will be 16 entrant lists this time, compared…Alenka Krasovec, Associate Professor, Chair of Policy Analysis and Public Administration, University of LjubljanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/191802013-10-31T14:43:50Z2013-10-31T14:43:50ZThe downfall of Slovenia, and why it matters for Europe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34180/original/mdfq2xq7-1383225678.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dark clouds are gathering over Slovenia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">lassi.kurkijarvi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The eurozone crisis appears to have a new victim: Slovenia. To avoid the need for a bailout, the IMF has called on the country to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/28/slovenia-banks-recapitalisation-imf-eurozone">immediately recapitalise its banks</a>. </p>
<p>This should worry the rest of Europe as, unlike some of the other countries that have received bailouts, Slovenia was no economic basket-case. Until very recently it was considered a success story, the most prosperous and stable of the continent’s post-socialist nations. So how has it come to this?</p>
<p>Slovenia has always been something of an outlier among the former Eastern Bloc. Due to commercial ties with neighbouring Italy, Austria and the rest of continental Europe, its most successful firms (such as Lek pharmaceuticals, or Gorenje home appliances) were internationally competitive even before the disintegration of Yugoslavia. At the same time, the tiny republic was considered to be orderly and law-abiding. As the saying goes, “laws were written in Belgrade, read in Zagreb and implemented in Ljubljana”.</p>
<p>The Slovenian success story continued after independence throughout its transition to democracy and a market economy. Slovenia’s GDP grew on average by 4.5% per year in 1993-2008. Its GDP per capita rose from less than half of Western Europe to <a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00114">87% of the EU average</a> in 2009. </p>
<p>This was not achieved at the expense of social justice: inequality was comparable to Scandinavia in the mid-2000s, the unemployment rate stayed particularly low and the gender gap with respect to earnings was one of the narrowest among OECD countries. Accession to the EU and the adoption of the Euro were relatively straightforward.</p>
<h2>The downfall</h2>
<p>The picture in 2013 could not be more different. Five years into the Great Recession, Slovenia’s economy is in a shambles. GDP in 2009 <a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115">fell by 7.9%</a>, a recovery failed to materialise, and in 2012 the country entered a double dip recession. The economy is forecast to shrink <a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115">a further 2%</a> this year.</p>
<p>Public finances are in disarray, with a large deficit and a public debt that has doubled since the crisis began. After the construction sector collapsed and numerous labour-intensive manufacturing firms closed down, the unemployment rate climbed from just above 4% in 2008 to more than 10%. As Slovenian financial institutions struggle with bad loans worth some <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24448954">22.5% of GDP</a>, an international bailout may become inevitable.</p>
<p>So how did the most successful post-socialist country so precipitously become one of the sick men of Europe? A peculiar mix of four factors, some dating back to the immediate post-independence period, have contributed to the unexpected downfall.</p>
<h2>Political paralysis</h2>
<p>Breaking away from Yugoslavia to create a new country was a daunting task for Slovenia’s rulers. As a consequence, consensual decision-making and broad coalition building became the norm. During the 1990s, the left-liberal and right-conservative blocs saw their ideological differences compressed by the common goal of accession to the European Union.</p>
<p>This changed in 2004 when a centre-right coalition headed by Janez Janša of the Slovenian Democratic Party was voted into power, beginning a decade of political polarisation and policy paralysis. Electoral competition became toxic, the relationship with the social partners deteriorated and public protests multiplied. </p>
<p>Reforms have proven impossible to achieve. The austerity programmes launched by both Borut Pahor’s Social Democrats and Janša’s second government ended in no confidence votes against the two executives. Political failures to respond to the crisis means the country skipped four years of restructuring and fiscal consolidation.</p>
<h2>Too gradual?</h2>
<p>Instead of adopting the shock therapy that inspired finance ministers in post-communist Poland or Hungary, Slovenian policy makers opted for a gradual programme of liberalisation, privatisation and stability in the early 1990s. </p>
<p>Gradualism preserved social peace, maintained social equality and provided a safety net for the losers of transition. However, in the long-term it proved to be a double-edged sword, resulting in the dilution of much-needed reforms. </p>
<p>Tertiary education became inefficient, the labour market excessively rigid and the judiciary effectively paralysed. The privatisation of state-owned enterprises slowed down. Due to high bureaucratic hurdles, Slovenia managed to attract only a risible share of foreign investments.</p>
<h2>Low-skills, low-tech</h2>
<p>Contentious politics and the failure to privatise much of its productive assets led Slovenian manufacturing into a low-skills, low-technology trap. </p>
<p>As international orders dried up in 2009, labour-intensive manufacturing firms were the first to collapse, leading to a big drop in GDP. The competitiveness of Slovenian firms further declined during the crisis; the value added per employee does not exceed the EU average in any sector. The technology and skills required to produce Slovenian exports is now <a href="http://www.umar.gov.si/fileadmin/user_upload/publikacije/dr/02/dr02.pdf">lower than in most other new EU members</a>.</p>
<h2>Cheap credit and the Euro-crisis</h2>
<p>Since 2009, Slovenia has been stuck in an inextricable credit crunch. The cheap credit available for management buyouts was used for ownership consolidation and not for restructuring or technological upgrades. This led to widespread bankruptcies and the need to refinance most Slovenian financial institutions (state-owned Nova Ljubljanska Banka alone lent <a href="http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/2011/09/articles/si1109029i.htm">some €5.8 billion</a>). </p>
<p>Of course, Euro-area dynamics did the rest. As banks have to be saved by individual member states, Slovenia found itself in a catch-22. It needed to raise more money but due to soaring costs of debt refinancing, the country found its access to international financial markets barred at a time it was most needed.</p>
<h2>Too late?</h2>
<p>The situation in 2013 is therefore dramatic. It is now probably too late for politicians and the social partners to sober up and vigorously pursue the elimination of the country’s structural weaknesses. As Slovenian long-term bond yields are so high (making borrowing expensive), the caretaker government of prime minister Alenka Bratušek may have to accept a bail out. </p>
<p>This would be perceived as a national tragedy in itself. But it may also engender the perverse dynamics of recent rescue-cum-retrenchment packages that forced the economies of Greece, Spain and other recipients on to their knees. Very dark clouds hang over a country that styles itself as the “<a href="http://www.sloveniaeventscalendar.com/en-gb/travel/detail/272/about-slovenia">sunny side of the Alps</a>”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Igor Guardiancich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The eurozone crisis appears to have a new victim: Slovenia. To avoid the need for a bailout, the IMF has called on the country to immediately recapitalise its banks. This should worry the rest of Europe…Igor Guardiancich, Fellow, Centre for Welfare State Research, University of Southern DenmarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.